PAGE_HEADER

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have made it to the NFC Championship Game with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy leading the way. It certainly doesn't hurt to have the weapons he has around him, but Purdy has done a good job. My concern with Purdy is he has played some very weak defenses up until last week against Dallas. The Cowboys made him look very shaky. The Eagles have 70 sacks this year, and they are going to bring a lot of pressure. Can Purdy handle it here? I would expect Kyle Shanahan to have a fairly conservative game plan on offense here. We've seen the 49ers run the football a bunch in the past, and they may well do it again here. 

I'm not sure if Jalen Hurts is 100 percent healthy yet. He is very good even at less than 100 percent, but the 49ers have the front seven to make him uncomfortable in the backfield. Nick Bosa is an absolute beast, and the rest of the defensive line is great as well. The Eagles did allow 44 sacks this year.

The 49ers have the slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. If they are running the ball a lot here the drives could take up a bunch of time. Both of these defenses have been pretty good at not giving up the big play.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks in Santa Clara on Saturday afternoon. You don't often think of weather issues in games in California, but the weather is very weird in the San Francisco area right now.

There are major rainstorms in the area and that has caused massive flooding already. The weather for Saturday calls for rain and winds of 13 mph with gusts of 25-28 mph. This field surfae is considered a slow field (a plus for unders) and now it should be very wet. The wind is a big boost as well.

Seattle's offense hasn't been very good down the stretch. As good as Geno Smith was early in the year, he really struggled late in the season.

San Francisco's defense is one of the top three defenses in the NFL. The 49ers offense has been good under Purdy, but their point totals have been inflated due to great field position and defensive touchdowns.

Both of the regular season meetings finished with a total of 34 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave are led by star running back Tyjae Spears. Spears is averaging 8.9 yards per carry over his last seven games. Tulane's Michael Pratt has a 25/5 touchdown to interception ratio. The Green Wave are far more dynamic on offense than most believe. 

The USC defense has been bad all year. USC is 128th in success rate allowed against the run. The Trojans are 113th against the pass. If they aren't forcing loads of turnovers, they are giving up a bunch of yards and points. 

Tulane's defense has been hurt by the best offenses they have played. They are up against the most talented offense they have played all season here. Tulane's run defense is a particular concern here. USC's offensive line ranks 8th in offensive line yards. Tulane's defense ranks 100th in stuff rate and 118th in havoc. 

Caleb Williams is said to have healed up pretty well during the team's long break between games. USC should be able to put together quick scoring drives against a Tulane defense that is outmanned.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. Detroit has allowed 6.3 yards per play on the season. For a while many people thought the Lions defense was improving a lot, but now in their last three games they have allowed 7.0 yards per play. The Lions are a very weak defense.

The Chicago Bears traded away some of their best defenders earlier in the year. Chicago's defense actually ranks dead last in Total EPA on the season now. They rank third worst in yards per play allowed for the season as well as in their last three games. 

This might be the two worst defenses in the NFL up against each other.

The Lions have been an offensive juggernaut at home this year, and this Bears defense is the worst defense they have played at home. 

Chicago's Justin Fields has been playing well. He has the ability to extend plays and be a major force with his legs. 

This game is played in a dome on a fast track. I like the offenses to have a big day.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is far better than most give it credit for being. Georgia is 4th in the nation in offensive success rate. The Bulldogs are 7th in yards per play. They have 69 red zone scores in 71 trips into the red zone. In those 71 trips into the red zone, an impressive 48 possessions have ended in a touchdown. 

Ohio State's offense is 9th in the nation in success rate, but they are 2nd in the nation in yards per play. The Buckeyes have 40 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far. Ohio State's passing game should do some damage in this game. Georgia is 11th in QBR allowed, but the Bulldogs didn't face many really good passing attacks. LSU put up 505 passing yards on them in the SEC Championship game. The Buckeyes wide receivers are the best in the country, and C.J. Stroud should be able to hit some big gainers here.

Ohio State gave up all kinds of explosive plays against Michigan, and the Buckeyes secondary is vulnerable. Stetson Bennett has improved a lot as a passer, and his ability to keep plays alive with his legs will bother Ohio State here too. Georgia's Brock Bowers is going to have a huge game here.

I think both offenses will have success here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The NC State Wolfpack defense has been great all year. NC State does have a couple opt outs on defense, but the majority of their star studded defense decided to play here. I think NC State is motivated here, and I expect to see a good performance from this defense.

Maryland's offense was good during the season, but the single biggest strength of the Terrapins was their deep group of talented receivers. Three of their top four receivers opted out of this game. The wide receivers are now unproven and that will make life tougher on Taulia Tagovailoa. The Maryland running game wasn't very good during the season, and NC State has a top ten defense against the run. 

The NC State offense hasn't gotten more than 5.0 YPP in a game since their win over UConn way back at the beginning of the season. They were the worst offense in the ACC. I don't expect them to come out and have a lot of success either. 

This should be a sloppy game throughout. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Malik Willis gets the start here for the Tennessee Titans. He started the first matchup between these two. That game finished 17-10. The Titans ran the ball 45 times that game. Malik Willis threw the ball only 10 times for a total of 55 yards.

The Titans play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. With Willis under center the Titans play calling will be ultra conservative. Derrick Henry has had success against the Texans, and he likely will here again. Still, these should be long drives that take a lot of time off the clock.

The Texans offense had a measly 161 yards of offense in the first meeting between these two. Houston has been really bad on offense away from home. 

This game has 13 mph winds with gusts of 21 mph in the forecast. That could be a small bonus too.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* It is Desmond Ridder against Tyler Huntley in this matchup. The Falcons play calling has been really conservative all year, and that isn't going to change with Ridder at quarterback. 

Atlanta wants to run the football, but Baltimore has a top five run defense in the NFL. The Falcons are 26th out of 32 teams in the NFL in tempo as well. 

The Ravens coaching staff took a lot of heat for how many times they threw the ball last week. I would expect a lot more running int his one. Huntley is only mediocre as a quarterback, and this Ravens offense is not explosive right now.

The weather is a bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts of 25 mph throughout the game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The New York Giants defense ranks 28th in yards per play allowed. These two bad defenses square off in a game played in a dome this weekend. 

The Giants certainly aren't a great offense, but the Vikings have had a way of making bad offenses look good. The Vikings have allowed 26 against the Patriots, 36 against the Colts, and 26 against the Cardinals. 

The Vikings offense is dangerous. Kirk Cousins is surrounded by great skill position talent. I don't think the Giants have anyone to slow Jefferson here. 

Look for this game to be back and forth at least for a while.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets have the best defense in the MAC. The MAC is a league where there are loads of high scoring shootouts between a lot of teams who have virtually no defense. Toledo is by far and away the best defensive team in the league.  They rank 12th in yards per play allowed on defense. They are 8th in the nation in success rate allowed. 

Liberty was a solid team defensively for much of the year as well. The Flames are 27th in YPP allowed and 10th in success rate allowed. Liberty's defense played poorly late in the season, but I think the players knew Freeze was out the door and now that he is actually gone it is more likely we see a more motivated Liberty team again.

The two offenses have been very inconsistent. Both offensive lines have given up quite a few tackles for loss. 

The weather in Boca Raton calls for 15 mph winds and gusts of 25-30 mph during this game. The current forecast also calls for an 80% chance of rain during this game. 

I like the under some even with a normal weather setup, but if this weather comes to fruition it is a huge positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans want to run the football. There are a lot of really good rushing defenses in the NFL. The LA Chargers are not one of those. LA is in fact the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Derrick Henry and company should have success on the ground against the Chargers.

The LA Chargers offense is completely different with Mike Williams on the outside to help Justin Herbert stretch the field. The Chargers play at the second fastest tempo in the league, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here. The Titans defense is badly banged up, and Tennessee is second last in the NFL in yards per play at 6.2 YPP allowed in their last three games. The Titans have allowed 71 points in their last two games.

This is a fairly low total where both teams have clear offensive advantages. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in tempo. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9th in the NFL in tempo. There should be more possessions in this game than an average NFL game.

The Dallas Cowboys offense is no question a top ten offense in the NFL now that they are much healthier. Dallas has a good balanced attack, so they can beat you in many different ways. Dallas has put up an average of 37.25 points per game in their last four games. 

Jacksonville's offense has been much better of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing really well right now. The Jaguars offensive line has improved, and the Jaguars have some solid weapons around Lawrence. 

The Jacksonville defense is a bottom ten defense in the NFL. While the Jags offense has improved of late, the defense really hasn't.

The Dallas Cowboys secondary has cluster injuries right now and Jacksonville should be able to attack them through the air.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense ranks second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. Overall for the season, they rank eighth in yards per play allowed. This is a very solid unit, which is playing its best football of the season of late. 

The Miami Dolphins offense is looking very shaky right now. Miami was very fortunate to even put up 17 points on the Chargers last week. The one touchdown was just a busted play turned into a touchdown by Tyreek Hill and his wheels. Hill is questionable for this game though. 

Buffalo's Josh Allen hasn't played nearly as well since his arm injury. I think it is bothering him more than he is admitting at this point. His numbers have been ordinary in the last few weeks. The Bills offense is still good, but they aren't the dominant offense they looked like early in the season.

The conditions for this game favor an under. There is snow in the forecast for throughout the game and winds of about 15 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That is a clear positive for the under. Tua doesn't have a strong arm and the Dolphins aren't a good running team. Buffalo will likely be more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The number here has already moved down a few points, and I think it should move more to the downside. First, Tyler Huntley got a concussion in the Steelers contest on Sunday. Huntley is an above average backup. He is unlikely to be cleared by Saturday for this Browns contest. If not, John Harbaugh made it sound like it would be Anthony Brown starting this game. It seems like Lamar Jackson will be out for this game as well.

The second key reason the total is dropping here is the weather report in Cleveland on Saturday. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph or so. That is enough to impact the game in a big way. 

Deshaun Watson doesn't look very sure of himself in his first two games. He looks uncomfortable and like he needs more time to get reps in this offense. 

The Ravens defense has gotten much better through the year. The Browns defense played pretty well against the Bengals as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals defense was underrated through the year this year. Louisville finished 40th in YPP allowed. The Cardinals sacked opponents a whopping 42 times on the season. They are an aggressive defense, but they still were a solid 52nd in explosiveness allowed.

Malik Cunningham and Tiyon Evans have both opted out of this game. Cunningham was the guy that made things go for this Cardinals offense. He created big plays out of nothing. Evans was very efficient as well. Tyler Hudson is also not expected to play here.

Louisville is without their head coach from the season as Satterfield goes over to Cincinnati. What a weird spot here in this bowl game.

Cincinnati is also without their coach after Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin. The Bearcats are expected to be without Josh Whyte (TE) and Tre Tucker (WR). Their center also entered the transfer portal. 

Cincinnati's offense didn't end the season playing well. The Bearcats had just 4.9 YPP against Tulane and 5.0 YPP against Temple. 

Fenway Park is the site for this bowl game. The weather here calls for 10-20 mph winds through the game with even a small chance of rain/snow. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Giants defense has been keeping them in games even when the offense has been really weak. The Eagles defense now ranks first in the NFL for the season in yards per play allowed. 

This is a late season divisional matchup. Those have been great for under bettors through the years. Between games 10 and 16 of the season, divisional totals set at 43 points or higher have gone under at a 58.1% clip since 2004. The sample size there is more than 550 games. 

The weather here could play a role as well. The weather calls for 10 mph winds and rain that could even mix with a little bit of snow during this game. Those are positives for the under.

I expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit here and I think the defenses will do a solid job not giving up the big plays.

The under is a perfect 14-0 in the Giants last 14 as a home underdog.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home. Detroit's home games have gone over this total six times, while only one game has gone under this total. The Lions have scored 35 points or more in four of their home games this year. They are back at home against a Minnesota defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL in many categories. 

Minnesota still has the most dominant receiver in the NFL. Detroit is really weak in the secondary. Good passing teams have taken advantage of the Lions on a consistent basis. Kirk Cousins is at least an average quarterback, and in these conditions he has been good through the years.

These two teams rank 7th and 8th in pace of play in the NFL.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens are clearly a different team on offense with Tyler Huntley at quarterback than Lamar Jackson. The loss of the big play ability is a big hindrance to the offense. Huntley is a decent backup, but the Ravens lack star power at the rest of the skill positions and I would expect their offensive game plan to be fairly conservative here.

Baltimore's defense has gotten quite a bit better of late. The Ravens picked up Roquan Smith, and he has been their best defensive player. Combining him with Patrick Queen is a dangerous tandem. 

Two of the Ravens last three games have finished at 16 and 19 total points.

Pittsburgh has seen two of their last four games finish under this very low posted total. This is a divisional rivalry where points have been at a premium in the long term. Pittsburgh is healthier on defense now, and the Steelers lack big play ability on offense too. Their run game is very inefficient and that puts too much pressure on Pickett.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have the worst defense in the NFL. They also have a very good offense when Jared Goff and company are in a dome on a fast track, like they are on their home field. 

Detroit's home games have finished with this many total points: 73, 63, 93, 58, 24, and 53. That's an average of 60.67 points scored per game in the Lions home games this year. 

Jared Goff has plenty of weapons around him to start with, and now Jameson Williams makes his debut. Williams is a supremely talented guy who will help this offense a lot. 

Jacksonville's offense has started clicking of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football as a pro right now. He'll go up against that worst defense in the NFL in perfect conditions. I don't see any reason to expect Detroit's defense to have much success here.

Jerome Boger's crew is the ref crew for this game. Boger is a great over ref. His crew is well known for a lot of defensive holding and pass interference penalties. The over is 124-94 in Boger's games. That's a 57% over rate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* It's Kansas State vs. TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium.

The first game between these two was a wild one. Kansas State led 28-10 before TCU came storming back and won 38-28. At one point in that game, Kansas State was down to their third string QB (and that didn't go well). Will Howard is expected to get the majority of the playing time here. Howard has been playing great. He has 11 TD's and just 1 interception since the first meeting between these two. Howard threw for 225 yards on only 20 pass attempts in the first meeting with TCU.

Kansas State is averaging 40.2 points per game in their last five games overall. The Wildcats have a big play guy in the backfield in Vaughn and he should have a big game here.

On the other side, TCU is loaded and balanced on offense. Max Duggan is in the Heisman Trophy talk because he has been so consistently tremendous. TCU has been without their star wide receiver (Johnston) of late, but he is expected back and at 100% for this game. 

TCU is 9th in the country in yards per play on offense. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness. 

On a fast track here I think both offenses will have a lot of success, and there should be big gainers coming from both sides. 

This should be a tight game, and overtime is a possibility as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bryce Perkins gets the start here for the LA Rams. Perkins is the third string quarterback for the Rams and he is in a really tough spot here. Without Cooper Kupp on the outside, Perkins isn't exactly surrounded by great weapons. The Rams will want to run the football here, but the Chiefs have quietly been solid against the run this year.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could probably score quite a few points here, but I'm not sure they will keep their foot on the gas here. Andy Reid's teams have historically constantly been quick to let up and run the clock when they are a big favorite. They are more than a 2 TD favorite here. Kansas City will run the ball more than normal here too. That helps the Rams who do have a top ten run defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I think Jimmy G is an underrated quarterback on the whole, and he is surrounded by some of the best weapons in the NFL. When you have guys like Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey around you it is going to be a lot of fun. The Saints defense has had a couple good games, but overall they have been a big disappointment. The Saints aren't the same without Lattimore in the secondary either. They'll miss him badly in this one. 

The Saints have been moving the ball well, and the Saints are more than capable of pick 6's with Dalton at quarterback against a defense that takes chances. At the same time, the Saints receivers are good and I think they can create some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers offense has been badly shorthanded most of the year. Justin Herbert now has his weapons back at wide receiver and that should make this passing attack be much better the rest of the way. Herbert is still a really good quarterback, and the Chargers play at a quick pace. They are up against a very weak Cardinals secondary. I expect the Chargers to get a lot of big plays here. The Cardinals defense didn't look interested late against the 49ers in their most recent game.

Kyler Murray comes back for the Cardinals here, and that is a clear help to the over. With DeAndre Hopkins this Cardinals offense and Murray this offense has big play potential. The Chargers are allowing nearly 26 points per game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs are trying to keep their dream season going. TCU has been winning a bunch of close games of late. While their records wouldn't indicate this would be particularly close, Iowa State has an excellent defense.

Iowa State is the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Iowa State has played seven straight games that have finished at 45 points total or fewer. Four of those seven games have finished at 34 points total or fewer.

TCU's defense has improved a lot, and this is a well coached unit. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 and the worst offense in the Big 12. Iowa State is 121st in the nation in ypc on the year. 

If TCU does get a decent lead here there isn't much incentive for them to run up the score. They'll have a very tough game next week in the Big 12 title game.

There is 14 mph winds in the forecast here and a slight chance of rain during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers rank 126th in tempo in the country. They are running the football on nearly 62% of their offensive plays in Pac 12 contests. Oregon State has been far less explosive on offense with Gulbranson at quarterback, but he also doesn't make the big mistakes that Nolan was making. That has made this Oregon State team more of an under team than they were earlier in the year.

Oregon's Bo Nix is banged up with an ankle injury. He only attempted one run last week against Utah. The Utes defense did a great job slowing down Oregon in that game. Oregon State's defense has been much better than Utah's on the whole this season. The Beavers are #1 in the Pac 12 in total defense. 

Though both offenses are solid, they are 97th and 115th in explosiveness on offense. Even the scoring drives should take some time here, and I think both defenses can get some holds in the red zone. 

Take the under in this rivalry game. 

*3 Star Play Under* Troy has the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Trojans excel in not giving up big plays which I think is really key to a lower under. Troy is 10th in yards per play allowed on the season and they are 12th in preventing explosive plays. 

Arkansas State's offense is far less potent than it has been in recent years. The Red Wolves have also drastically slowed down their pace of play. Arkansas State is 79th out of 131 in tempo this year. Troy is even slower at 101st.

The weather here should be a factor too. The forecast calls for 90 percent chance of rain and winds of about 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. 

Both defenses are much better than the offenses in the run game. Expect more running than normal here thanks to the weather.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have seen no more than 49 total points scored in their last eight games. In 7 of their last 8, the combined total in the game has finished at 37 points or less. Their game that hit 49 points had two special teams touchdowns.

Marshall is fantastic on the defensive side of the ball. The Thundering Herd rank second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are sixth in yards per play allowed. Georgia State runs the ball on 67% of their offensive plays. Marshall is allowing only 2.96 ypc on the season. Georgia State hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball around very often at all this year.

Marshall's offense is very weak. Cam Fancher is a below average quarterback who doesn't take many shots down the field. The Thundering Herd will try to lean on their running game as well. Marshall ranks 130th out of 131 teams in the nation in offensive explosiveness. They'll run the ball a lot and their drives will take quite a bit of time. While Georgia State isn't great on defense, they do get in the backfield a lot. They are 42nd in defensive havoc caused by the front seven. Marshall's offensive line is 126th in the country in havoc allowed. Marshall should get behind the sticks quite a bit too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns host the Baylor Bears on Friday in an early game in Austin the day after Thanksgiving. 

Texas has made some big strides on defense this year. The Longhorns are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 27th in success rate allowed. Texas has occasionally given up big plays, but Baylor isn't a team that gets a lot of big plays this year with Blake Shapen at quarterback. 

Baylor is coached by a defensive mind in Dave Aranda. The Bears have only allowed 41 plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. They should be able to limit Texas' big plays better than most teams have. 

The weather should play a role in this game too. The current weather forecast calls for half an inch of rain during the game and winds of about 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That should make both teams more conservative and those conditions clearly benefit the under in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys will square off in a big game in Minnesota on Sunday. 

Minnesota's offense has big play potential with Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins on the whole is a pretty solid quarterback too. Dalvin Cook just ran for 8.5 ypc against the Bills who are a solid defense. Cook has game breaking speed and is capable of busting a big one at any time.

The Dallas offense has put up well north of 400 yards in back to back games. With Dak Prescott back, this becomes one of the better offenses in the NFL again. Tony Pollard is a big play running back too. 

This one should be tight all the way and overtime is a possibility as well. Being played in the dome the conditions are ripe for scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears have become a great over team of late. The Bears have scored 29 points or more in four straight games. They have also allowed 119 points in those four games. That is 29.75 points per game allowed. 

This isn't the Chicago Bears from a few years ago. The Bears had previously been one of the better defenses in the NFL and one of the worst offenses in the NFL. That no longer is the case. The Bears defense is much weaker now. They traded away top talent and some of the other guys are past their prime. 

The Bears coaching staff has found a way to game plan to Justin Fields' strengths and that has made a huge difference. Fields is looking like a dangerous weapon especially with his legs.

Atlanta's defense is second worst in the NFL in yards per play. A.J. Terrell might be back for this one, but even he hasn't been good this year. The Falcons secondary is still very shorthanded. On offense, the Atlanta running attack is likely to work better against the Bears than it has against recent opponents. 

This one being played on a fast track in a dome is helpful for points too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast for this game has gotten increasingly bad. The sustained winds now are expected to be at about 20 mph in this game. The wind gusts are expected to reach 35-40 mph. 

The Patriots have an argument for the best defense in the NFL. New England doesn't give up big plays, and I trust them to slow down the Jets offense especially now that Breece Hall is injured. Wilson is one of the worst QB's in the NFL right now.

The Jets defense has been sneaky good this year. This is a tough group that doesn't let opponents get anything easily. The run defense is very underrated. 

The play calling here should get even more run heavy with this kind of weather. I expect a lot of moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats offense is really weak this year. The offensive line has been a major problem. Kentucky has allowed 39 sacks despite having far fewer plays than most teams in the country because of their slow pace. The Wildcats are averaging only 3.29 ypc on the year. They are up against the best run defense in the SEC here.

Kentucky is 131st (slowest in the country) in tempo this year. The Wildcats are trying to run the ball and win with defense. Georgia is 108th in tempo, so the Bulldogs are fine with a slower paced game as well.

Georgia's offense is very good, but the Bulldogs have shown to be willing to slow the game down and be conservative with a lead. I expect them to be playing from ahead by a solid margin here. I think Georgia slows things down even more and runs the football a lot in the second half.

The weather here is a bit of a help for the under too. Sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts to 24 mph are in the forecast during this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini will square off in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. 

Illinois star running back Chase Brown suffered a fairly major injury late in their loss to Purdue. Brown is the leading rusher in the nation so far this year, and to say an injury to him hurts the Illini is a big understatement. There isn't really an update on his status yet, but I would be surprised if he plays. If he does play here, Brown will be less than 100% and he will be up against an elite rushing defense.

Michigan is 126th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Wolverines are an excellent team, but they are content to run the football and slowly move the ball down the field. Michigan ranks 127th in explosiveness on offense in the country. The Illinois defense is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Michigan's defense is second in the nation in YPC allowed. The Wolverines defense is getting better as the season goes along. In Big Ten play, they are allowing only 2.33 ypc.

The early forecast for this one calls for 20 mph sustained winds with a temperature in the 20's. That could make these teams even more conservative with the play calling.

Take the under. 

*As the weather conditions have become more clear that wind will be fairly significant the under has taken money. I would bet this for 4 stars down to 42 and a 3 star rating down to 40. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Stafford is likely to be out with a concussion here. It was said that it will take a stunning turn for him to start in this one. John Wolford would get the start. The Rams offense gets ultra conservative with Wolford at quarterback. With Stafford in the lineup, the Rams are dead last in yards per play in the NFL. Wolford isn't an upgrade. 

Kyler Murray is considered doubtful by many here. He might play, but he is less than 100%- and he would likely take quite a few shots from this strong Rams defensive line if he plays. Colt McCoy is a solid backup, but the Cardinals do have a different and slightly more conservative game plan with him in the lineup too.

The Cardinals defense has given up some big plays this year, but the Rams aren't the team to expose that right now. The Rams are a top 10 defense and their defensive line should get in the backfield here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Don't look now, but the Chicago Bears offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Chicago has put up 33, 29, and 32 points in their last three games. The Bears are starting to utilize Justin Fields in a much better way. Fields has amazing ability to keep plays alive and use his legs to create. 

The Bears traded away their best defensive player, and they have been banged up on defense with the guys who are left also. In their last two games they have given 49 and 35 points. The Lions aren't likely to score that many, but I think Detroit will get plenty of yards and points here.

The Lions defense is a bottom three defense in the NFL. Detroit even allowed nearly 400 yards against the Packers offense last week. Green Bay struggled badly in the red zone, and Rodgers had some bad turnovers. 

Jared Goff has enough weapons around him now with Swift, Williams, and St. Brown being back on the field. Look for them to be able to pick up some chunk plays on this Bears defense.

Both teams are playing at a faster than league average pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Alabama run defense has been much weaker in recent weeks. Alabama has shown some weakness especially against mobile quarterbacks and run games that use tempo. Jaxson Dart is mobile enough to do some damage, and we know Ole Miss plays quickly.

Ole Miss is third in the nation in tempo this year. They are playing faster than Tennessee. The Rebels have two star running backs in Judkins and Evans. I think both of them can have some success here. Dart is inconsistent at quarterback, but he has an average depth of target of about 11 yards so he takes a lot of shots down the field. Dart is capable of hitting some big gainers against this Alabama secondary that has been prone to giving up the long ball.

The Alabama offense should be able to move the ball all over this weak Ole Miss defense. Early in the year they looked much improved, but this defense has completely fallen apart against any kind of decent competition. Look at their recent performances against Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M for examples. They gave up 500 yards to LSU. They allowed 34 points against a very questionable Auburn offense. They let a terrible A&M offense score 28 points and roll up 480 yards. Bryce Young should have a huge day here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a great under team. Marshall's defense ranks first in the entire country in success rate allowed. This is a really good group of defenders that has no clear weakness. Marshall is second in havoc created by the front seven. The Thundering Herd are allowing only 2.57 ypc on the season. 

Appalachian State prefers to run the ball. The Mountaineers have good running backs, but I think they will have more trouble running it in this game against this great front seven. App State has run the ball on 55.4% of their plays overall this year. 

Marshall's offense is a hot mess. Cam Fancher doesn't look downfield much at all. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 63% of their plays in Sun Belt action. Though the Marshall run game is decent, opponents are now game planning for the run and loading up the box since Marshall isn't stretching the field.

Marshall has played six straight games that have finished with a total of 37 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini haven't played a game that went over 44 total points all year. They probably will at some point, but I think this will be another low scoring contest.

Purdue has had much lower scoring games on the road under Jeff Brohm than they have when playing at Ross Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers rely heavily on the passing game, and Illinois is first in the nation in opposing QBR allowed. 

Illinois wants to run the football and use up the clock. The Fighting Illini should be able to dictate a slow pace in this one as well.

Early forecasts call for winds of 15-20 mph in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I had been leaning strongly toward an under in this game to begin with, but now the news of AJ Swann being out for Vanderbilt has pushed me to bet the under in this one.

Vanderbilt's offense was helped a lot by Swann's play making ability. Kentucky's defense has been fantastic all year. The Wildcats are 9th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. 

In SEC play, only game for Kentucky has gone over this total and that was their loss to Tennessee. It only finished at a total of 50 points. The rest of the games have finished with: 42 points, 41 points, 38 points, 44 points, and 38 points. 

The Kentucky offense plays at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Look for them to run the football a lot here and use up the clock.

The weather could be a bit of a factor here as well. Winds of 15 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the early forecast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have played at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL so far this year. The Chargers are also dead last in run defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry on the season. That's important here since Atlanta runs the ball so often and is a team with explosiveness in the run game.

Atlanta's secondary is a mess right now. Heyward on injured reserve is crucial since he is their best corner. Terrell might come back here, but he has graded out very poorly this season. The team is extremely thin in the secondary. The Chargers are starting to get slightly healthier in the passing game too.

The Chargers have had 3 of their last 4 games finish at 58 points or higher. Atlanta has had their last two games go to 52 points (45 in the first half against the Bengals) and 71 points (against the Panthers who are weak offensively).

I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense has been underrated by nearly everyone. Buffalo of course has a strong offense, but the defense has been the better unit so far this year. Buffalo hasn't allowed more than 21 points in a game this year. Buffalo is giving up an average of just 14.0 points per game. 

Wilson and the Jets aren't an offense I trust against anyone right now. Wilson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and he doesn't even have his security blanket in Breece Hall anymore. Hall going down with an injury was a massive loss for this Jets offense. The Jets have scored just 16 and 17 points in their last two games. 

The weather calls for a little wind here (10-15 mph). Divisional unders with wind of 10 mph or more have gone 57% to the under in the last 15 years. This one fits the system.

I don't see the Jets scoring much here, but the Jets defense has played pretty well this year. Gardner is a tremendous addition in the secondary.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have cluster injuries in the secondary. Awuzie is the leader of the secondary and him being out for the year is a massive loss for this Bengals team. Now Mike Hilton is also out with an injury. Backup cornerback Tre Flowers is doubtful since he missed all week of practice (he could still play). The Bengals are even activating a practice squad cornerback for this game. 

PJ Walker has looked much better the last couple games. DJ Moore is an elite receiver and I expect him to get open deep multiple times against this Bengals secondary. The Bengals pass rush is also subpar, so I think Walker has some time to throw here.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should look much better than it did last game in Cleveland. Even without Chase, the Bengals have plenty of weapons on offense to be solid. The Panthers pass rush isn't as good as the Browns either. Look for Burrow to have a bounce back game here and hit some big gainers. I still view Burrow as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If he is given some time here, he can get it done.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans have the best defensive line in the Sun Belt. Troy is 13th in the nation in YPC allowed. They are also 18th in explosiveness allowed on defense, so they don't give up big plays very often. 

Louisiana has relied on big plays to score this year. The Ragin' Cajuns are just 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. They don't have the strong running game they have had in recent years. 

The Troy offense isn't good at all. They have been running the ball more lately, but they are averaging only 2.75 ypc. The Louisiana secondary is top 15 in PFF coverage grade rankings. 

Troy's pace of play has slowed down drastically in conference play. They are using more than 30 seconds between snaps and they have slowed their pace down more than 2 seconds compared to their average pace in the non-conference.

Louisiana has seen 4 of its 8 games finish with 38 total points or fewer. Troy has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 37 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a really good under team. Marshall is a really poor offensive team. They rank 128th out of 131 teams in the country in terms of explosiveness. They also are just 113th in success rate. Marshall has been held to 13 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. 

On the other side, the Marshall defense is tremendous. The Thundering Herd defense is allowing only 4.48 yards per play this year (7th in the country). They rank third in the nation in success rate allowed. Marshall has allowed 16 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. The Thundering Herd rank second in defensive havoc created by the front seven.

Old Dominion's offense has looked good in the Sun Belt action so far, but they have played weak defenses. Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State are all much worse than average defenses. Now, they take on the best overall defense in the Sun Belt.

Old Dominion played a couple low scoring games earlier against quality defenses with a poor offense. Their games against Virginia and Virginia Tech stayed well below the number.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense has been better than anyone could have possibly expected. Missouri ranks 14th in success rate allowed on defense so far this year. Missouri is 12th in success rate allowed against the run.

Kentucky will want to run the ball as much as possible. In SEC play, Kentucky is running it on nearly 61% of their offensive plays. The Wildcats are also dead last in the nation in tempo (131st out of 131). Kentucky is only averaging 3.31 ypc in SEC action. Their offensive line is much weaker than it was a year ago.

Kentucky's defense has been excellent this year. The Wildcats rank 12th in success rate allowed. Missouri's offense has slowed their tempo drastically in conference play. The Tigers rank only 101st in explosiveness on offense as well.

The long range weather forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a chance of rain here. I like the under even without any help from the weather, but this would be a bonus for the under as well.

I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast in West Lafayette is pretty wild for this one. A blend of three different forecasts calls for 25 mph sustained winds with gusts of about 30-32 mph during this one. There is also a good chance of rain during the game. The wind is the big deal here, but any rain added in is also a plus.

Iowa is an under team through and through. This Hawkeyes defense is elite. The Hawkeyes offense is awful. Iowa plays at an extremely slow tempo.

How good is the defense? Iowa is YPC allowed on the season. They are 13th in opponent QBR. 

Purdue is 29th in YPC allowed this year. The secondary is a little weak, but Iowa isn't a team that can take advantage of that.

Both teams should be playing far more conservatively if the weather forecast is even close to correct here. Purdue is a great passing team, but their run game averages only 3.45 ypc in Big Ten play. Iowa averages just 2.9 yards per carry.

Two good run defenses and a lot of running clock here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have kept an eye on this game and the weather report throughout the week. I didn't want to fire on this one too early since I wouldn't want to bet under this number without the help of weather conditions to keep the scoring down. 

Checking from 8 different weather sources, there is a solid consensus now that the winds during this game will be very intense. The National Weather Service, which I consider one of the best weather resources out there, has upped their wind forecast for this game as the week has gone along. They are calling for sustained winds of about 25-28 mph throughout this game with gusts of 45 or even 50 mph. 

That kind of weather changes a game in a big way. Maryland has an explosive passing attack, but if this weather forecast is even close to right it will make Maryland more conservative in their play calling. The Terrapins aren't great at running the football.

Wisconsin's passing attack has occasionally worked of late in the play action passes. Expect less of that here with Maryland loading up the box.

Does the wind matter? The answer is absolutely yes. I ran a query and found the following:

Games with an average wind speed of 20 mph and an average temperature lower than 60 degrees have gone a whopping 52-13 to the under in the last 15 years. That's an 80% win rate. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense was supposed to be a high quality defense this year. That hasn't turned out to be the case. Marshon Lattimore's absence badly hurts a thin secondary, and many teams have taken advantage of this weakness. The Raiders have the guys to take advantage too. Davante Adams is expected to play here after missing some time this week due to an illness. Waller is questionable, but the Raiders do have good secondary options and I think Carr is a bit underrated by many people.

The Saints offense has been clicking very nicely of late. New Orleans has scored 25 points or more in four straight games. The Raiders rank 22nd in defensive grade at PFF (the Saints are 21st). Andy Dalton has been slinging it around nicely. Dalton is capable of big plays both ways.

This game is played on a fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have one of the best defenses in the country. Marshall is 9th in YPP Allowed and 3rd in success rate allowed. The Thundering Herd are third in the country in defensive havoc created by the front seven. They should be in the Coastal Carolina backfield quite a bit in this one.

Coastal Carolina has been a high scoring team much of the season, but this is the best defense they have faced on the season. Coastal Carolina moves at a very slow pace. They rank 107th in the nation in tempo. The Chanticleers run on 57.5% of their plays on the season. 

Marshall's offense is a mess. The Thundering Herd are 128th in the nation in explosiveness. They are 126th in passing play success rate. They will try to run it early and often. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays in Sun Belt action. 

This number has been bumped up enough that I have to back the under here. Coastal Carolina carries some risk to unders, but Marshall has been an under machine. I'll count on Marshall to keep this one down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Illinois is a far better defense than many people have given them credit for being. Ryan Walters is an excellent defensive coordinator, and he has really taken this Illinois team upward with his great defensive schemes.

Illinois hasn't had a game this year above 44 total points. The Fighting Illini are playing a faster paced opponent here, so I understand the total being set higher, but I still like the value on the under in this one. 

Nebraska's offense hasn't played a defense even close to this good so far this year. The Cornhuskers will likely have a hard time getting into rhythm and I don't think we'll see many explosive plays. 

Illinois is primarily about the running game. Chase Brown is really good and he'll get his yards here, but the Nebraska defense has improved quite a bit in run defense in the conference. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense has outperformed all expectations so far this year. Kenny Dillingham is doing a tremendous job with this unit. Bo Nix is having a better season than anyone could possibly predict. Oregon ranks 2nd in the nation in success rate. The Ducks are averaging 7.09 yards per play. They are averaging 6.14 ypc (2nd in the country). 

The Cal defense that is usually very strong is much weaker than normal this year. Cal is 117th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Oregon should have a bunch of success running the ball. In Pac 12 play, Cal is allowing 6.08 yards per play.

The Oregon defense isn't as good as it was expected to be. The Ducks are 97th in yards per play allowed. They are 100th in defensive success rate allowed. They are worst against the pass (115th in success rate allowed). Cal should be in passing situations quite a bit in a big underdog role in this game.

Look for Oregon to move the ball easily here and Cal will get enough to put it over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been very good this year. Rutgers has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 41 points or lower. The only game to go over this total was their meeting with Ohio State. Minnesota is clearly nothing like Ohio State. Rutgers is 10th in YPP allowed on the season. 

As good as the Rutgers defense is, the offense is that bad. Rutgers is 110th in YPP on offense. They have scored 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Rutgers has been held to 10, 10, and 13 against Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska. 

The Minnesota offense is extremely run heavy. Minnesota is running it on 65% of their offensive plays on the season. Rutgers has been especially strong against the run this year. Tanner Morgan is questionable for Minnesota here as well.

Rutgers is 114th in tempo and Minnesota is 128th. The clock should be rolling here and I don't expect to see many possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks offense is very explosive. They just put up 52 points at BYU. Arkansas is elite in the running game, and that will be a big problem. The Auburn run defense is 97th out of 131 teams in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. Auburn is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC action. KJ Jefferson is good enough in the passing game to keep Auburn honest in the secondary as well. 

Auburn's offense has been far more explosive than most would expect. The Tigers rank 4th in the country in explosiveness. The Tigers have a great weapon in Tank Bigsby. Arkansas has virtually no shot at stopping him. The Razorbacks run defense is 122nd in the country in rushing defense success rate allowed. Ashford has been decent at quarterback for Auburn. He is capable of big plays either way. He could throw a pick six or he could hit a deep pass. Arkansas is 128th in explosiveness allowed.

Arkansas pushes the pace in a big way. The Razorbacks are 16th in pace of play in the country. 

I expect a lot of big plays in a tight high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled badly against the Denver Broncos last game, but the Broncos defense is excellent. The Chargers have a lot of injuries and that has led to them being weaker than expected. Still, this is a team with good skill position talent and they play very quickly. In neutral play situations, the Chargers are first in the NFL in tempo.

The Seattle Seahawks defense looked good last weekend against Arizona. I'm still not convinced they are a good defense though. For the season overall, Seattle is 30th out of 32 teams in yards per play allowed. The Seahawks have given up 27 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

The LA Chargers defense is just 26th out of 32 teams in YPP allowed. Seattle's offense has been much better than expected with Geno Smith playing some excellent football at quarterback. He has good wide receivers and the Chargers secondary is below average. 

I think both teams do their fair share of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos might have the best defense in the NFL. It is certainly a top three defense in the NFL. Denver is giving up only 4.5 yards per play this season (2nd in the NFL). The Broncos are well balanced with a strong defensive line and a great secondary as well.

The New York Jets have a star rookie in Sauce Gardner. The Jets are a top 10 run defense in the NFL again this year too. 

Denver's offense has been an absolute mess. I don't see them fixing it right away. The Broncos have only seen one of their games so far this year go higher than 35 points total. Two of their games have gone into overtime too.

The weather forecast is key here as well. The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 38 mph during the game. There is a 30 percent chance of showers as well. This kind of weather makes both teams far more conservative. I expect a lot more running and less deep passes. That is a boost for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense finally got rolling last weekend in New Orleans. Joe Burrow threw for 300 yards and easily had his best game of the season thus far. Chase caught two touchdowns. Higgins practiced in full on Friday and probably will be back for the Bengals here.

The Atlanta Falcons already have a weak secondary, and now they are badly banged up in the secondary. Casey Hayward, their best corner, is on the injured list and will miss this game. Dee Alford was expected to step in and get playing time at corner, but he is now out with an injury too. AJ Terrell is playing through an injury as well, and his numbers this year have been very poor. The Bengals passing attack should have a lot of success in this game.

The Bengals defense started the season playing great, but injuries are really slowing them down of late. DJ Reader is a fantastic run stuffer and he is out. Logan Wilson is easily their best linebacker and he will miss this game too. Josh Toupou is out at DT as well. 

Atlanta is a very good running team and I think they will break some big gainers on the ground as New Orleans did last weekend against Cincinnati. 

This total has edged up, but it hasn't gone up enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a very good unit. Southern Miss is 19th in success rate allowed on defense this year. Southern Miss has given up only 8 plays of 30 yards or more as well, so they are also very good at preventing big plays.

Texas State has slowed their pace of play down drastically this year. The Bobcats have usually been a top 25 tempo team under Spavital, but they are 83rd on the season. Their tempo they have played at in their three Sun Belt games is two seconds slower than they were playing in the non-conference slate as well so they have really shifted things down. 

Texas State is much improved on defense. The Bobcats are 30th at preventing big plays. They are allowing just 3.31 ypc in Sun Belt action. Texas State is a bit weaker in the secondary, but Southern Miss does have a weak passing attack.

Both teams like to play slowly and I think they'll be several long drives that end in field goals here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've really been impressed by the Missouri defense in their last few games. In their 3 SEC games they have allowed just 5.21 ypp. Those games were at Auburn, home against Georgia, and at Florida. 

Vanderbilt and Missouri have both slowed their tempo drastically in SEC play. Vanderbilt is using 30.51 seconds between plays on average (more than 2 seconds slower than in non-con action). Missouri is using 28.29 seconds between plays (about 1.5 seconds slower than in non-con action). The tempo should stay very slow in this contest.

The weather here calls for 12 mph winds with gusts of 23 mph during the game. That should encourage a more conservative game plan. Vanderbilt has given up a lot of big plays through the air this year, but the weather and the conservative nature of the Missouri offense should help. The Missouri defense has really been much better against the run in recent games.

A slower pace and some weather helping as well.

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Under* There is a lot working in the favor of delivering value on the under in this matchup.

James Madison just played a 45-38 shootout against Georgia Southern. GA Southern is an extremely fast paced team who makes every game high scoring. James Madison is having a really good season. The Dukes have a good offense, but they haven't had to play a defense as good as Marshall yet. The Thundering Herd are second in the nation in ypc allowed. James Madison will move it through the air here, but they don't play terribly quickly. If they are playing from the lead late (they probably will be), they have shown to be very conservative and run the ball a lot.

Marshall's offense has been absolutely awful, especially in their last few games. Marshall put up 2.5 YPP against Troy a couple games ago. They then put up just 276 yards and 4.2 YPP against Louisiana last week. They only found the end zone very late in the game when Louisiana had backed off into a prevent defense. 

James Madison is #1 in the nation in YPC allowed. Marshall is all about the run. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 68.5% of their plays in Sun Belt action so far. I don't expect them to have much success at all.

These two defenses are #2 and #4 in success rate allowed. This total is set too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have changed the way they play now that Aveon Smith is under center. Miami has slowed their tempo down to a crawl. They are using 33 seconds between snaps in the MAC contests. Miami is running the ball on 68.2% of their offensive plays. That plays to the strength of the Western Michigan defense, which ranks 19th at PFF in rushing defense grade. 

Western Michigan's offense is terrible. They haven't found a quarterback who is even decent all season. Miami is beatable through the air, but the Redhawks have been excellent against the run all season. Western Michigan is playing at a below average pace as well.

Miami has had two of their last four games finish at 31 points or lower. The Redhawks should control the ball here and use the clock a bunch. I think this is a sloppy lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here should be a big factor. An average of three major weather forecasting sites is calling for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph during this contest. That is enough wind to change the way the game is played.

Spencer Sanders was playing banged up against TCU. He is tough and put in a strong effort, but he wasn't nearly as accurate later in the game. It is his throwing arm which is concerning. Oklahoma State's rushing attack is 76th in rushing play success rate. Texas is 10th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. If Sanders isn't healthy and the wind is blowing this hard, the Oklahoma State offense is in a far less than ideal situation.

The Texas offense is very good. Texas though should have a bit different looking offense with this kind of weather conditions. Ewers isn't likely to be able to air it out deep as much as normal. That helps the Oklahoma State defense a bit. 

Wind games have consistently gone under in the long term especially wind games of this extreme. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wake Forest's defense has quietly been a lot better this year. New defensive coordinator Brad Lambert has done a great job with improving this unit. Wake Forest is up to 41st in success rate allowed. Here, they are up against a one dimensional Boston College offense.

Boston College ranks dead last in the nation in yards per carry on offense. The Boston College offensive line is awful. They are bad in run blocking and pass protection. I don't expect Phil Jurkovec to have much time to throw it in this one. Wake Forest will bring the heat and get Boston College behind the chains in this contest.

Wake Forest is a good offense, and they do play fast. The Demon Deacons only rank 100th in explosiveness on offense though, so they aren't getting as many big gainers this season. I think Jeff Hafley is a good defensive mind, and the BC defense should have a good scheme ready to at least slow down Wake somewhat. Boston College had a bye week before this game to get prepared.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats and Northern Illinois Huskies have the two best quarterbacks in the MAC in Rourke and Lombardi. 

Ohio's passing attack has been fantastic with Rourke leading the way this year. Ohio is averaging 6.39 yards per play overall. They are 31st in the nation in passing play success rate. The Bobcats have 17 plays of 30 yards or more this season. In MAC play, Ohio is first in total offense so far this season. 

Northern Illinois has a terrible pass defense. The Huskies are 129th out of 131 teams in the country in opponent QBR. They have already allowed 18 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Rocky Lombardi is back from injury, and that makes this Northern Illinois offense dangerous. Lombardi is a top 10 quarterback in PFF grade this year. Northern Illinois was good offensively without him, but they are excellent offensively with him on the field. 

Ohio's defense is 130th out of 131 teams in the country in yards per play allowed (7.02). I see no reason to believe they'll stop Northern Illinois in this one.

A back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers want to run the ball early and often. It is very rare to see a UAB total set this high. UAB had a high total against a terrible Charlotte defense last week, and that game stayed under the total by 11 points. 

UAB ranks 124th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Blazers have ran the ball on 65% of their offensive snaps on the season. Western Kentucky is 22nd in the nation in ypc allowed. I do think UAB will have success running here since W Kentucky hasn't faced good running teams yet, but UAB will take a quite a while to move down the field. If they are settling for some field goals it will help the under a lot.

Western Kentucky's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago with Bailey Zappe and company. The Hilltoppers offense ranks 42nd in success rate in the country. UAB is easily the best secondary W Kentucky has played so far this year. UAB is 3rd in opponent QBR allowed.

Both defenses have done well with not giving up big plays. UAB has allowed only 21 plays of 20 yards or more this season. W Kentucky has only allowed 24 plays of 30 yards or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks have been far better on offense than anyone expected they would be. Geno Smith's tremendous play at quarterback is a big reason for the success of the Seattle offense. Geno Smith grades out as the #1 quarterback in terms of PFF rating so far this year in the NFL. Of course he isn't the best QB in the league, but he is a lot better than expected. He has a very good group of wide receivers who should be able to get open against a questionable Arizona secondary. Seattle is second in the NFL in yards per play so far this year behind only the Buffalo Bills.

As good as the Seattle offense has been, the Seahawks defense is the worst in the NFL. Seattle is dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6. Arizona has struggled offensively in their last three games, but they have played three quality defenses. The Seattle defense is a much weaker unit. I expect Kyler Murray to have a good game in this one.

I expect both quarterbacks to have a big game against defenses who give up too many explosive plays.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts haven't had a game all season thus far with more than 41 total points. The first game between these two was 24-0 Jaguars. 

The Colts offense is a mess right now. The offensive line is very bad, injuries have magnified their weaknesses, and Matt Ryan playing behind a bad offensive line has been a mess. Jonathan Taylor is questionable for this game, and if he plays he won't be at full strength. The Jaguars defense is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

The Jaguars offense has looked bad the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been struggling with opposing defenses defending Trevor Lawrence with the two high safeties. Lawrence is making poor decisions and this offense has been very inefficient.  The Colts have been bad on offense, but their defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year.

I expect a tight lower scoring battle in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green play at a very fast pace. North Texas ranks 26th out of 131 in the nation in overall pace. The Mean Green have a really good rushing attack. In this case that is a good matchup advantage against a LA Tech team that ranks 127th in rushing play success rate and 124th in YPC. 

LA Tech has been throwing the football more lately. Their offense isn't consistently great, but they have great explosiveness. LA Tech has 16 plays of 30 yards or more this year. They are up against a North Texas defense that ranks 111th in YPP allowed. 

North Texas has played in four straight games that have gone over this total. Their games have finished with 86, 85, 78, and 73 points. 

LA Tech has allowed an average of 44.75 points per game against FBS opponents this year. The Bulldogs defense is a major weakness in their new system.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Devin Leary was injured last week in the contest vs. Florida State. Leary hasn't been fantastic by any means this year, but the NC State offense without him looked very rough.

Jack Chambers played for the last 5 minutes of the third quarter and the whole 4th quarter against Florida State. That game was very much up for grabs, and NC State only attempted one pass with him under center. They went into a run only offense and played at a slow pace. They were extremely conservative.

Syracuse ranks 16th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. I don't expect NC State to have much success here. Leary is doubtful for this game and if he plays he will be less than 100 percent. 

The NC State defense is easily the best defense Syracuse has faced thus far. The Wolfpack have some studs who will be good NFL players in the next couple years. Syracuse ranks 112th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. 

A slow paced game where both offenses should be fairly conservative. I see the defenses having the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota defense ranks #6 in success rate allowed so far this year. Illinois ranks #2 in success rate allowed. I think these are two top 10 or 15 defenses in the country. 

Minnesota is 129th in tempo. The Golden Gophers run on 65% of their offensive plays. That can lead to some very long drives that kill the clock in a big way. If they aren't scoring touchdowns, but move the ball some it can really help an under. Illinois has a fantastic defensive coordinator in Ryan Walters. I think Walters is one of the top defensive minds in the country, and I expect him to have a good game plan for the Golden Gophers rushing attack.

Illinois will likely be led by backup quarterback Artur Sitkowski in this one. Tommy Devito suffered an ankle injury in the team's last game. The Fighting Illini are going to need to run the ball even more than normal here. I would expect Minnesota to try to load up the box and dare Illinois to beat them through the air.

The long range weather calls for 15-20 mph winds in this game. If that does come to fruition it is just a nice bonus for a game that should be dominated by the defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines meet up in Ann Arbor in a huge Big Ten clash on Saturday afternoon. Penn State and Michigan both come into this game unbeaten. 

Penn State comes into this one with the #21 ranked defense in terms of YPP. The Nittany Lions have a really good defensive line that isn't likely to get pushed around by Michigan like most teams will. Penn State has only given up more than 14 points in a game once this year, so this is a very solid defense.

Michigan's defense ranks #4 in the country in yards per play on defense. This team hasn't faced many good offenses though, so that ranking is a bit too high. Still, I don't consider Penn State a really good offense either. Penn State's offensive line is still a major problem, and Michigan should be able to take advantage of that weakness.

Michigan has a new offensive coordinator, and they are playing much slower so far this year. Michigan ranks 119th in the nation in tempo. Penn State is 73rd in tempo so they are a bit slow as well.

This is a high total for two teams playing slowly. Additionally, the long range weather forecast is calling for 20 mph winds during this game. I like the bet even without the weather, but that is a nice bonus if it happens.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have a top three offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lit up what I still believe is a very good defense in Tampa Bay last weekend. They put up 41 points in that contest.

Kansas City has scored 32 points or more in each of their last five meetings with the Raiders. The Chiefs have far too many weapons for this bottom ten Raiders defense to slow them down consistently. 

The Raiders have a pretty good quarterback in Derek Carr and he now has a great receiver in Adams on the outside. Las Vegas has put up 396 and 385 yards in their last two games. The Raiders have a good offensive line and I like Josh Jacobs in the backfield as well. Kansas City's defense is no better than mediocre.

The weather conditions for this one are perfect. I would expect to see both teams moving the ball well in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys will have Cooper Rush at quarterback again here. Rush has done a good job at the helm. The team has been more cautious with their offense though. There have been a lot of shorter passes and more rushing plays than I would expect to see with Dak Prescott at quarterback. The Cowboys are relying too much on Lamb at wide receiver. That could be an issue as he lines up against an elite cornerback in this one.

The Cowboys defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in nearly every statistical category. The Rams offense ranks second last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily through the season. 

Tony Pollard is questionable for this game and he has played very well this year. The Cowboys offensive line is also badly banged up. The Rams lack secondary options for Cooper Kupp as well.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders put up 28 and 27 points on the Jaguars and Lions in the first couple weeks of the year. They have put up only 8 and 10 points against the Eagles and the Cowboys the last couple weeks. 

Washington's Carson Wentz has good enough pass catchers in McLaurin and Samuel and the rest of the group to do some damage against a Titans secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL. Washington's numbers from the last two weeks mean little since both the Eagles and the Cowboys defenses are very strong. The Titans gave up 21 points even against a weak Giants offense and they allowed 5.8 ypp against the Colts and 6.1 ypp against the Raiders. 

The Titans offense does a good job on scripted drives because they are well coached. That should led to early points here against a Washington defense that I believe isn't very well coached. Ryan Tannehill doesn't have the weapons he has had in recent seasons, but he still has enough. 

The Titans linebacker unit has been hit with a rash of injuries that should slow the defense down some here.

The over is hitting at a clip of 59% dating back to 2004 in weeks 3 through 5 in the NFL when the total is 43 or lower and the wind is 7 mph or lower on average. The forecast calls for 7 mph here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies offense has been really inefficient so far this year, but I don't think they can continue to be this bad in the long run.

Logan Bonner was playing banged up and is now out for the year. Cooper Legas is the new starting quarterback for Utah State. Legas looked pretty good against a solid BYU team last week. Utah State put up 26 points in a losing cause. 

Utah State ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies have been unsustainably bad in the red zone. They have only even scored a point of any kind on 9/16 trips into the red zone so far this year. A bunch of interceptions/fumbles in the red zone will do that to you. This will improve in time. 

Air Force is a great offense led by Daniels. The Falcons will be able to run and mix in some explosive throws against a Utah State defense that is worse than a year ago. They really miss Justin Rice at the linebacker spot. Air Force is 6th in success rate on offense, and I expect them to be efficient here.

The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary. They haven't faced even a mediocre passing attack this year. They have faced Northern Iowa, Colorado, Wyoming, Nevada, and Navy. Utah State has the best QB and wide receiver talent they have faced.

This game was 49-45 last year. I don't expect that high of a score again, but this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as a run and gun team that would play a bunch of overs. The Rebels do play very fast. They rank third in the nation in tempo. They run the football a lot though. They also are one of the most improved defenses in the country. 

Ole Miss shut down the Kentucky offense last week in a really impressive performance. Kentucky scored only 19 points and this Kentucky team has a very good runner in Rodriguez and a good QB in Levis. 

Vanderbilt has slowed their pace down to a crawl in their last couple games. I think Clark Lea realizes his team is overmatched against their opponents now, and they are going to try to stick around by running it more and playing at a slow pace. 

Ole Miss will run it a bunch and mix in some deep passes from Jaxson Dart. Dart hasn't been efficient through the air so far this season. 

Ole Miss isn't giving up any big plays on defense so far this year. They are 4th in the nation at preventing explosive plays.

Ole Miss will likely be playing from a large lead and a running clock later in the game is a plus.

The under is 11-0 in Ole Miss' last 11 games against an FBS opponent. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils have a very good quarterback in Riley Leonard. Leonard is averaging more than six yards per carry. Leonard also has a completion percentage of 72.0% on the season thus far. 

Duke ranks 10th in rushing play success rate in the country. The Blue Devils have a huge edge over the Georgia Tech run defense who ranks 119th in rushing play success rate allowed. Duke is 15th in yards per play in the country. They haven't scored less than 27 points in a game all year. They have scored 30 points or more in all but one game. 

Georgia Tech's game was extremely low scoring last week, but that was at least somewhat thanks to the wind and rain in Pittsburgh. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack impressed me in that game though. GA Tech had 232 rushing yards in that game. Duke's defense is middle of the road in general.

The Yellow Jackets have been abysmal in the red zone, but that should positively regress toward the mean in the long haul. Georgia Tech has scored on only 10 of their 18 trips into the red zone this year. They have just 6 TD's in those 18 trips inside the 20 yard line. 

This is a low total for a game with two questionable defenses. Duke has become an impressive offense with Leonard this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee offense is very good. They have only played one good defense this year though. That was the Pitt game, where Tennessee only scored 27 in regulation. Wins over Ball State and Akron weren't much of a test. 

LSU has looked pretty good on defense for most of the year. I'm not impressed with the LSU offense though. Jayden Daniels is banged up, but expected to try to play through it here. The best play for the LSU offense has been Jayden Daniels scrambling and making something happen on a busted play. I'm not sure he'll be able to do that as much here. LSU threw for just 85 yards against Auburn last week. 

LSU is likely going to try to slow the pace of this game down. I don't think Brian Kelly wants a shootout against this Volunteers team. 

Both of these teams are run heavy, which will mean a moving clock for much of the game. 

I think this one will be relatively high scoring, but this is a very high total. A 35-24 or 34-28 type game still says under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs will get Mike Evans back here. Evans is a star receiver and him back in the lineup will help Tom Brady a bunch. Tampa Bay's offensive line is finally getting healthier as well. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are both leaning toward being able to play here but they will test things out in warmup before the game. They would be a big bonus for the offense as well.

Kansas City's offense is among the best in the league. They have been the most consistent offense in the NFL the last couple years. Tampa Bay's defense is good, but the Bucs haven't faced an offense nearly as good as this Chiefs offense. 

The Kansas City defense is still a weakness. The Chiefs give up too many big plays and their secondary isn't deep enough. Brady should have a better game here with improved health for the Tampa Bay offense.

A total of 45.5 is awfully low for these two quarterbacks with as many weapons around them as they have. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is an early season game being played in a dome. Early season (September and October games) contests with a spread of 7 points or less either way (this one fits) being played in a dome are 225-180 to the over (55.6% overs) since 2004.

Atlanta has scored 27, 27, and 26 points in their three games so far this season. The Falcons offense has been working very well with Marcus Mariota at the helm. I've been impressed with their play calling early in the season. 

Cleveland has scored 29, 26, and 30 points in their three games this year. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent at quarterback. The Browns have the best running back in the NFL in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is a great backup. The Browns offensive line should dominate on the line of scrimmage here. 

The Browns defense is badly banged up. Myles Garrett was in a car accident and is a game time decision. Clowney is also a game time decision. Denzel Ward will try to play, but is less than 100 percent. 

The Falcons defense has allowed 23 points or more in every game, and the Browns may be the best offense they have played yet (or the Rams who scored 31 points). 

I like both teams to score throughout this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers rank 126th out of 131 teams in the country in pace of play. Pitt also runs the ball on nearly 62% of their offensive snaps. The Panthers are very happy to run the ball and use up the clock, especially when they have a lead later in the game. Pitt is a huge 24 point favorite in this game against lowly Georgia Tech. They should be in the role of running the ball and using up the clock a bunch in this game.

Georgia Tech's offense has scored 10, 10, and 0 points against their three FBS opponents this year. Those opponents were Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF. The Yellow Jackets now face a Pitt team with a great defensive line. The Georgia Tech offensive line is in trouble in this one.

The Pitt offense has only been mediocre. They rank 61st in the nation in yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense has at least been very good at preventing explosive plays (20th best in the country).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I really like the South Alabama defense. Kane Wommack is a tremendous defensive mind. The Jaguars are 29th in the country in yards per play allowed so far this year. They are 19th in YPC allowed. Louisiana is 109th in rushing play success rate on offense. They will try to, but I don't think the Ragin' Cajuns will have success running the football against this Jaguars front. Louisiana has been really inconsistent in the passing game too, and they really haven't played a good secondary yet.

Louisiana's offense ranks only 100th in the nation in yards per play on offense despite facing a schedule of SE Louisiana, E Michigan, Rice, and UL Monroe. That's a terrible schedule of defenses.

The Louisiana defense is 52nd in defensive success rate allowed. They have been really bad in the red zone, but I think that shows there is some regression to the mean coming for them in the red zone. Opponents have scored 10 TD's in 13 trips into the red zone against them.

Neither of these teams really want to play all that fast, and this total is at a point where a 28-20 type game stays under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather report for this game is looking worse as it gets closer. These are two teams who usually rely on the pass very heavily, but that could change some here.

The forecast is calling for rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of about 18 mph and gusts to 33 mph. That kind of wind alone can make a large difference, and with rain combined it is even more of a difference maker.

Michigan State has a very good run defense, so if there is increased running in this game it certainly helps the Spartans defense.

Michigan State offensively isn't nearly as efficient when running the ball as they were last year (losing Kenneth Walker makes a big difference for this team), and Maryland should be able to at least slow them down.

With this weather report just 48 hours out, I'm going to take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies rank 107th in the nation in tempo. Even when they are losing, UConn is playing slowly and running the football a lot. UConn is running the football on 63% of their offensive plays on the season. They are playing with a backup quarterback since their clear best starting QB was injured early in the year.

Fresno State will be without star quarterback Jake Haener for this game. Fife is a decent backup, but he is clearly a step down from Haener. The Bulldogs will likely be a bit more conservative on offense with him.

The weather here calls for rain which will be heavy at times during the game. A wind of about 11 or 12 mph and gusts to 20 mph are also a factor. This kind of weather is a clear plus for the under. 

The weather combined with the backup QB's makes me like the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I think Iowa has a top 3 or 4 defense in the country. Iowa's linebackers are elite as always, and their secondary is tremendous once again this year. Iowa was embarrassed defensively by Michigan in the Wolverines 45-3 win in the Big Ten Championship last season. This unit has absolutely been looking forward to this game to try to show they can stop the Michigan offensive attack.

Michigan's offense is playing much slower this year. They have a new offensive coordinator, and Michigan now ranks 109th in tempo in the country. The Wolverines haven't even played a team with a top 50 defense so far this year. They'll be tested in a big way here.

The Iowa offense is one of the worst in the country. They are 128th out of 131 in yards per play. Iowa has a terrible offensive line that is awful in pass protection and weak in run blocking. Spencer Petras is a bad quarterback, and I think Iowa will do their best to try to run the ball a lot here.

The Michigan defense played pretty well against a really good Maryland offense. The Terrapins had only 5.4 ypp on offense in that one. Michigan's defense is a top 6 or 8 defense in the country.

PFF grades these two defenses as the #1 and #6 teams in the country in terms of tackling. They also grade them as the #1 and #2 overall defenses in the country.

The total is low, but it is low for a reason. The pace will be very slow and I don't expect many big plays here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers rank top ten in the country in pace. They will push the tempo every time that they have the ball. 

Georgia State wants to run the football as much as they can, which is actually good in this case. Army ranks 129th in rushing play success rate allowed. This is a much weaker Army run defense than they have had in recent seasons. The Panthers should be able to have some success here.

Army's rushing attack is tremendous. Army is actually successfully mixing in a few more passing plays than they have in most recent seasons as well. This offense is first in the nation in explosiveness so far this year. They have a whopping 12 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Georgia State's defense isn't very good. They have already allowed 74 plays of 10 yards or more this year. Army should break quite a few big gainers in this one.

Army is better offensively and worse defensively than they were a year ago. Georgia State is playing even faster than they did last season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers defense looked bad last weekend against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes were firing on all cylinders and they are going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Wisconsin is still a well coached defense by Jim Leonhard and they should be well prepared for this game.

Illinois is going to want to run the ball and get it to Chase Brown even in the short passing game. Brown is a good back, and they should get yardage here, but I expect it to be in slow long drives rather than explosive plays. Wisconsin has been a good red zone defense for many years now, and I think they can force Illinois to kick field goals.

Wisconsin's offense is all about the running game. They are running on 65% of their plays on offense. The Illinois defense has been fantastic so far this year. Illinois is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. They just shutout a Chattanooga (FCS) team that is actually pretty good. Chattanooga nearly beat Kentucky last year. Illinois also held Virginia to 3 points earlier this year. 

Wisconsin plays at a bottom ten pace in the country, and Illinois should be more than happy to run and try to use up the time as well. This game will have a running clock for much of the time.

Illinois has scored a grand total of 7 points on Wisconsin the last two times they have played them. The Illinois defense has gotten a lot better under Ryan Walters too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins showed their impressive fire power in their come from behind win over the Ravens last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa has two star receivers on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The new Dolphins offense scheme is allowing Tua to take more shots down the field. 

The Buffalo Bills offense has looked like a well oiled machine this season. Josh Allen is playing like a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. He has a good offensive line in front of him, and a group of excellent wide receivers. Buffalo is third in the NFL averaging 6.7 yards per play. 

While the Bills have a quality defense at full strength, they are expected to be without 4 starters on defense in this game. The Miami defense is aggressive, but that should also give Allen the chance to beat them with some explosive plays down field. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a tremendous defensive line. They are great run stuffers. That is really important in a game like this because Western Michigan really wants to run the football as much as possible. Western Michigan's quarterback play has been brutal. They badly miss Eleby and the star receivers they have lost in recent seasons. I don't trust Western Michigan to be able to take advantage of San Jose State's relative weakness in the secondary.

San Jose State's offensive line really holds back their offense. The Spartans rank 127th out of 131 teams in the country in offensive line yards so far this year. They are also 100th in explosiveness, so they aren't getting many big plays. 

Two teams who have weak offensive lines and struggle in 3rd and short situations here. I think this is a game where even when they get into the red zones, it could be field goals instead of touchdowns several times.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the country. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 14 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. They rank 128th out of 131 in explosiveness allowed this season. 

Old Dominion's offensive numbers don't look very good this year, but they have played a good slate of defenses. Virginia is a much improved defense. Virginia Tech is a good defense. East Carolina is a pretty solid defense as well. Arkansas State will easily be the worst defense they have faced. Old Dominion plays at the 23rd fastest tempo of any team in the country. The Monarchs should get more scoring chances here.

Arkansas State is a pretty good offense led by former Florida State quarterback James Blackmon. The Red Wolves are capable of putting up a big number on offense as well, and they showed that last week against Memphis. Old Dominion's defense is a below average defense. Arkansas State's offensive line has struggled in pass protection, but ODU doesn't have a good pass rush.

The weather looks very nice for this game. I think this one is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as an over team because of their pace, but the under is actually 9-1 in their last 10 games. Ole Miss runs the football a lot which keeps the clock moving. They have run the ball on 64.1% of their snaps so far this season. 

Ole Miss is also much better on defense than they were in the past. In fact, this year's defense looks to be the best Ole Miss defense in quite a few years. The Rebels haven't played good offenses, but it is still really impressive for them to rank 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They shut out Georgia Tech last weekend.

Tulsa's biggest weakness is their offensive line. The Golden Hurricanes have already allowed 10 sacks this year. Ole Miss is going to be in the backfield here. The Rebels have gotten 13 sacks already this year. 

The tempo played here will be quick, but I expect Ole Miss to have the lead and look to be running the clock in the fourth quarter. This is a very high number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both of these are teams I'm looking to bet overs with throughout the season when given the opportunity. I like the matchup here. 

Memphis has an explosive offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan is an underrated passer who can make something out of nothing at times. The Tigers have enough weapons around him to be very dangerous.

The Memphis defense is weak, especially against the run. North Texas has a strong offensive line. The Mean Green offense has worked nicely all year. Their only issue has been turnovers in key spots that stall out drives. North Texas has 399 yards or more of total offense in every game this year.

Memphis has seen the total get to 72 and 76 points in two of their games already this year. North Texas has seen two of their games get to a total of 85 points. 

Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. Both teams rank in the top five in the country in offensive plays of 30 yards or more. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank first in the nation in tempo. Indiana is getting a bunch of quick snaps off. The Hoosiers aren't that efficient as an offense, but they do have 10 plays of 30 yards or longer already this season.

Indiana has also been terrible in the red zone so far this year. The Hoosiers have only scored on 10 of 14 trips into the red zone. They have a touchdown on only 6 trips out of 14 in the red zone. Those are among the worst in the country. That is something that should regress in a positive way a bit through the year.

Cincinnati's offense has impressed me this year. They are averaging 7.24 yards per play on the season. The Bearcats already have 11 plays of 30 yards or more. Cincinnati ranks 20th in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Indiana's defense is particularly weak against the pass (106th in passing play success rate allowed) and Cincinnati's passing game has been good this season. The Bearcats have sped up their pace of play as well, ranking 46th out of 131 in terms of tempo.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This total is set very low, but it is set very low for good reasons. 

The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to do much of anything this year. Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati solely because they forced 5 turnovers. The Steelers couldn't get anything going against New England either. Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.3 yards per play on the season (30th out of 32 teams). 

Cleveland's offense has been pretty good, but they haven't played a good defense yet. The Browns are very limited in what they can do offensively with Brissett under center. Cleveland is a very good running team, but I think the Steelers will load up the box in this one.

A huge key to this game should be the weather. Cleveland is expected to have 18 mph sustained winds through this game, and wind gusts of 35 mph during the game are expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game. What does it lead to? It leads to both teams running the football more than normal and being more conservative in their play calling. That is certainly a help to the defenses. 

The Browns and Steelers have played many tight low scoring games against each other in the past. The weather adds in another big plus here. Both teams have weak quarterbacks and aren't very explosive on offense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders offense upgraded in a big way in the offseason. Devante Adams is a top five receiver in the country. The Raiders now have Adams and Darren Waller as elite pass catching options for Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs is a very good all purpose running back. Carr is very capable and he should have a good season with the improved talent around him.

Arizona plays quickly and the Cardinals still have enough weapons to score plenty. Kyler Murray is a bit inconsistent, but running quarterbacks have hurt this Raiders defense in the past. Murray is well known for late scoring drives when the team is down, and they are a clear underdog here. 

Early season games played in a dome have been good overs in the past. Specifically, early season (September or October games) that are non-divisional and have a spread of 7 points or fewer are 56% to the over since 2004. This one fits that system. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Bucs have a top three defense in the NFL. In fact, it might be the best defense in the NFL. Tampa Bay should be able to get pressure in the backfield against a Saints offensive line that is a relative weakness this year. They won't have to deal with Alvin Kamara, who is expected to miss this game due to a rib injury.

The Saints have really slowed down Tom Brady and the Bucs well in the recent past. The Bucs aren't nearly as good on offense now as they were in those games either. It is still Brady and they'll bounce back some over time, but the Bucs offensive line is now a weakness. Godwin is out and just about every other pass catcher is at least banged up some here. 

Without Kamara, the Saints have a weak running back group, but they are likely to still want to run the ball quite a bit. Look for both defenses to come up with tackles for a loss in key parts of this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rocky Long's defense at New Mexico is a tough one. Rocky Long is one of the best defensive minds in the country. Many coaches have tried to copy his 3-3-5 defense because of how innovative it has been. New Mexico is a tough nosed defense that will make you fight for yards. They don't usually give up big plays either.

New Mexico's offense is awful. The Lobos play at an extremely slow pace and they are very run heavy. So far this year, 65% of their offensive snaps have been running plays. The Lobos should end the season as a bottom ten offense in terms of efficiency, and they'll be bottom 20 in terms of tempo as well.

UTEP has a pretty weak secondary, but they are very good against the run. New Mexico isn't the type of team that will take advantage of the UTEP secondary. Look for UTEP to stuff the run here.

UTEP won 20-13 when these two played last year. UTEP lost their two star receivers Cowing and Garrett and they are clearly worse on offense this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves had major problems with giving up big plays last year. They are back at it again this year. Arkansas State has allowed six plays of 40 yards or more on the season. They have serious problems in the secondary. Memphis is a team that should be able to once again take advantage of those issues. 

Memphis put up 55 points in Jonesboro last season. The Tigers rolled up 680 yards of total offense. Memphis had 417 passing yards. Seth Henigan is back, and he's an above average quarterback who isn't afraid to take shots down the field. Memphis was very good on offense last week against Navy, and I think they'll look really good again here.

Arkansas State put up 50 points in their loss to Memphis last year. I don't think they'll score that many here, but the Red Wolves should be able to move the ball too and score enough. James Blackmon is capable of some explosive plays of his own, and I don't rate this Memphis defense very highly.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars offense has been a big disappointment so far this season. With Dana Holgorsen being such a good offensive mind, I find it hard to believe they won't improve through the season. Clayton Tune is a good quarterback, and he has an elite receiver in Tank Dell.

Jalen Daniels and this Kansas offense look tremendous. They have some real talent in the backfield, and Daniels has been underrated for too long now. 

This Houston defense is still pretty good, but they aren't the dominant force they were a year ago. The Kansas defense is a major weakness still. West Virginia put up 42 points in regulation against them last week. 

Look for both teams to do quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ole Miss has been a good under team of late. Why? The Rebels have been running the ball a lot more than most people realize. Lane Kiffin's team does play quickly, but there is a lot of running clock because they are running the football on nearly 60% of their offensive plays the last couple seasons. 

With a total of 60 or higher, the under is a perfect 7-0 in Ole Miss' last 7 contests. Ole Miss has allowed only 13 points in their first two games. They haven't played great offenses, but the Georgia Tech offense isn't good either. Ole Miss picked up a lot of new transfers on defense, and so far they have been working out.

Georgia Tech has been pretty good against the run so far this year. Ole Miss will get their yards on their ground here, but the Yellow Jackets have at least improved a bit on the run defense.

The Yellow Jackets offense is very short on playmakers. Sims will likely be under a lot of pressure from the Ole Miss defense that will likely blitz quite a bit in this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State talked about possibly playing faster this year, but the Wildcats rank 121st out of 131 in tempo so far this year. Tulane also ranks as slower than the average team. 

Both of these teams like to run the football as much as possible and mix in a deep pass here and there. Those plays can be explosive at times. 

I think the weather forecast here matters quite a bit. There are going to be showers and thunderstorms off and on. More importantly, winds of 17 mph with gusts to 32 mph are in the forecast. This kind of weather should lead to both teams being more conservative. Those explosive plays should be harder to come by.

Take the under here.