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*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers played a really high scoring second half that pushed the game a bit over the total in Game 5. There were a few things that stood out in that game. There were 37 offensive rebounds in that game. The two games before that had 19 and 16 offensive rebounds total. There were also 62 free throws in that game, and both teams made at least 80% of their free throws.

In the long run, NBA bettors taking the under in game 6 and game 7 of the playoffs have profited in a big way. It has been an even better angle when the home team is a small favorite or an underdog. When the home team is -2.5 to +10.5 the under is a whopping 65-32 with the average margin going under by more than 5.5 points. 

Tyrese Haliburton is a big question mark here. He's a huge key to the Pacers offense with his passing and scoring ability. 

This game should bring high intensity defense and I like it to stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder were the best defense in the NBA this year. They came up with the key stops that they needed last game down the stretch in a big comeback victory. 

In game four, the first quarter was 35-34, but then the rest of the game was a defensive battle played to a slower pace. The pace was 98.5 possessions in that one. That has been the slowest paced game in the series.

In a 2-2 game in the NBA Finals, this is a huge game for both teams, and I would expect the defensive intensity to be very high now.

With a slower pace and a game that means even more to both teams, I like the under here. Unless the game is a free throw fest, I like this to stay lower scoring. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks came away with an impressive win over the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night. The Knicks defense really contested shots well, and they did a great job keeping Haliburton in front of them in Game 5. 

While some of the games in this series have been very high scoring, that is now two of the last three games in this series that have finished at 206 points and 205 points. 

These potential closeout games can really tighten up especially later in the playoffs. These teams are so close to their final goal. The amount of effort that these teams are going to put in on the defensive end now compared to a regular season game is just tremendously different.

The Knicks have a defensive minded head coach. The Knicks will work to slow the pace down in this game.

Game six and game seven in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors in the last 15 years. 

This is a pretty high total given the importance of the game. I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks were embarrassed with their defensive performance in Game 5. Tom Thibodeau is a defensive minded coach, and he talked a lot about their poor closeouts and poor transition defense last game. 

Boston put up a ridiculous 1.396 points per possession on offense last game. The Celtics aren't likely to shoot the ball as well here, and the Knicks are almost surely going to contest those jumpers much better than they did last game.

The pace in Game 5 was slower than the series average at just 91 possessions. As the games get bigger the pace usually slows down. If we assume a pace of 91 possessions again, it would take both teams averaging about 1.16 points per possession (very high for playoff basketball) for this to get to the total.

Betting on game 6 and game 7 unders in the NBA playoffs has been a big winning proposition in the long term. Blindly betting on these in the past 16 years has given under bettors an ROI of 11.2%.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go back home down 3-2 and facing elimination if they lose this game. Oklahoma City fought very hard and dominated Denver in the 4th quarter in Game 5 to get a 3-2 series lead. 

The last three games have seen the final totals finish at 217 (in overtime), 179, and 217 total points. The pace has slowed down some and the defenses have been forcing quite a few turnovers.

In the NBA playoffs, Game 6 and Game 7 unders have done well, and when it is the team oddsmakers rate higher on the road that has been especially true. For example, when home teams in game 6 or 7 who are priced at -2.5 to +10.5 on the spread, the under is a whopping 65-31 to the under. The average margin is more than 5.5 points to the under.

Denver isn't likely to give up easily and I like this one to be a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets shot lights out in their 131-115 win over the Clippers in Denver on Tuesday night. The Clippers shot it really well too. Denver shot 56% from the floor and the Clippers shot 52.4% from the floor. The Nuggets put up a ridiculous 1.394 points per possession in that one. The Clippers had 1.211 points per possession. 

For the series as a whole, four of the five games have been at 207 points or fewer at the end of regulation. Three of the five games have been at 200 points or lower at the end of regulation. 

Potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs have been good to the under in the long run. That is especially the case when we get to game six and game seven. The tendency is for the game to slow down and the defenses to be at their best. The under in game 6 and game 7 in the first round is 60-40 in the last 100 games.

The Clippers are a good defensive team, and I think they will be embarrassed by their poor defensive effort on Tuesday night. 

The average pace in this series is just 91 possessions. That requires an average of both teams averaging 1.17 points per possession or so to get to this total. The pace might be a bit slower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks meet in Detroit in Game 6 of what has been a really competitive series. The young Pistons have been playing some great basketball down the stretch in the regular season, and this has been a very evenly played series. 

New York was one of the slower paced teams in the league this year. The Knicks should lean on their defense and slow this game down. 

Detroit has been physical down low and that has thrown off the Knicks quite a bit in this series. The Pistons sometimes don't have enough scoring options in the key moments. 

The under is 130-81 in the last 211 in Game 6 or Game 7 of the NBA playoffs. The pace has slowed a bit in the last two games between these two teams. 

A lot on the line in this one. I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers were third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the regular season. The Clippers when healthy have been excellent on defense. The Nuggets have an extremely high 16.5% turnover rate in the series. 

Michael Porter Jr. is trying to play through an injury. Jamal Murray isn't completely healthy. Russell Westbrook is injured now too. There is so much pressure on Jokic to dominate all the time now. The Nuggets other options just aren't reliable. 

The pace in this series has averaged about 91 possessions. That requires about 1.17 points per possession to get to this total. With turnovers and inefficient shooting that is hard to get to without a major foul fest.

James Harden is inconsistent offensively in the playoffs. The Nuggets defense should be a bit better in this game.

The Clippers defense is the best unit on the floor in this series. I like the value to the under again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers go home to host the Denver Nuggets in Game 3. This series couldn't have been closer in the first two games in Denver. I think this series will be extremely tight the whole way.

The first two games in this series were low scoring. Game one was 98-98 before overtime. Game two was 105-102. It hasn't been poor shooting numbers either. The pace numbers have slowed down a lot from the regular season meetings. The games weren't artificially low. The totals were just set too high. Both of these teams have some defensive stoppers, and open looks have been difficult to find thus far. 

Kawhi Leonard has picked up his level a lot in the postseason. The Nuggets aren't as efficient on offense with Westbrook taking questionable shots too often. On the other side, the Clippers are capable of being great on offense, but they are inconsistent and go through scoring droughts.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rockets and Warriors met five times this year. Four of the five games finished well below this total. In fact, four of the five games were 203 total points or lower. 

The Rockets and Warriors both finished top seven in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of these teams finished with an average tempo that was slightly slower than the average tempo in the NBA overall. The Warriors played a bit slower in their games with Jimmy Butler in the lineup. 

The Rockets are a good team, but they lack that elite scorer to take over a game. Houston does play tremendous team defense though. They will make Golden State work very hard to get open looks.

The game changes quite a bit in the playoffs, and I think the pace here will be even slower than their regular season meetings. The shooting numbers might be a bit higher, but I think it will take some abnormally hot shooting to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors and LA Clippers have a bunch on the line on Saturday afternoon in the Bay Area.  Both teams are fighting to stay out of the play in tournament.  Both teams could finish seventh with a loss here. 

Steph Curry is listed as questionable with a hand injury. I am going to assume Curry will play here. Curry may be a bit hampered, but I'm not betting the under based on this injury. 

Golden State is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Golden State has really made a run largely because of some much improved defense in recent months. They have been playing at an average or slightly below average pace on offense too. 

The LA Clippers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Clippers are bottom 8 in the NBA in tempo during that time as well. 

Steph Curry was quoted as saying this game would have a Game 7 feeling because of what is on the line. I think the pace slows a bit and the defenses have the upper hand.

All three meetings between these two teams this year have stayed under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a big game for both teams. There is a major battle going on for the 4th-8th spots in the NBA Western Conference. Everyone wants to get in the top six to avoid the play in. Right now, Memphis is 7th in the standings and Minnesota is 8th. One game separates 4th from 8th though, so there is plenty of room for movement in the final days.

Memphis has a new coach and they have slowed their pace down slightly. Minnesota is a top ten defense in the NBA lately. The Timberwolves have been going through scoring droughts though with many of the secondary scoring options struggling in recent contests.

The importance of this game is likely to slow things down a bit. The posted total is so high that I have to side with the under with 58 points per quarter still leading to an under.

I expect a little tighter defense than usual in this Western Conference battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is also second to last in offensive efficiency during that time. They have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last ten games. They will be without R.J. Barrett today, and he is averaging 22 points per game this season. Scottie Barnes is their leader and he is questionable at best also.

Detroit will be without Tobias Harris which is a pretty big loss, and Cade Cunningham is questionable here as well. If Cunningham plays he isn't likely to be 100 percent. 

Detroit is 9th best in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. I like their chances to slow down this shorthanded Toronto Raptors offense. The Pistons won't have some of their go to guys on offense though. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia 76ers have played in five straight games that have finished with 233 total points or more. Philadelphia has allowed 122 points or more in 7 of their last 9 contests. The 76ers defense ranks third worst in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. The New Orleans Pelicans rank dead last in defensive efficiency during that time period. 

New Orleans has seen 234 points or more scored in 5 of their last 9. They have allowed 134 and 136 points in their last two games. 

These are two teams who have nothing to play for and that has lead to some wild high scoring games of late. The 76ers are 7th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games, and the Pelicans are 17th. There should be a relatively quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start in Dallas. It is a noon local start in Dallas. 

The Mavericks have been much better on defense at home this year than on the road. Dallas is 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are struggling to score in the halfcourt. 

Philadelphia is one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. The 76ers lack elite scoring options now. Philadelphia is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games, so they too are struggling quite a bit on offense.

The early Sunday unders have been good in the last 15 years, and they have been even better in the Western Conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go to Oklahoma City for a big game against the Thunder on Sunday. This is a very early start time in Oklahoma City. It gets underway at noon local time. This is also after clocks moved forward in the night so there was one less hour to sleep and the body clock could be off a bit here.

These early Western Conference unders have been excellent long term. 

Admittedly, this isn't a game I really wanted to bet the under with these two offenses being in top form of late, but the situation and the price makes me feel like there is value here.

Oklahoma is a top two or three defense in the league. Denver is a top ten defense in the league. A total set this high is quite extreme. 

Oklahoma City got up defensively for a showdown with Boston on a Sunday afternoon in January. That game finished 105-92.  I think the Thunder get fired up defensively here too. This game won't be as low scoring, but this total requires more than 60 points per quarter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets aren't very good on offense. Houston is in 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. Houston has scored 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 9 contests.

Oklahoma City has had some very high scoring games of late, but the Thunder are still first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season overall. Houston is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The first two times these teams met this year the totals were 220 and 214 points. This is a large adjustment and it is based on OKC's recent high scoring games. I think this is too large of an adjustment.

Justin Van Dyne is one of the refs in this one and in his career his games have gone under at a 55.5% clip.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have had the best defense in the NBA in the last ten games. The Nets also play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this total. 

The Washington Wizards are 24th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. They are second to last in the last three games. 

The Nets are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

The last meeting between these two was 221 points, but Shot Quality's advanced data suggests the final total should have been 198 based on the quality of shots taken.

All three refs in these game have edged toward the under in their careers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets are playing far slower than any other team in the NBA. Brooklyn's average pace of 93.5 possessions per game in their last eight games is nearly 3 full possessions slower than the second slowest paced NBA team during that span. In that time, seven of the Nets eight games have stayed under this total.

The Miami Heat are 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo. Miami is also only 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. Brooklyn is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The last four meetings between the Heat and Nets have finished with 205 points total or lower. That includes one game that finished 96-95 with an overtime. Brooklyn has scored 97 points or fewer in each of the last three meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers are a completely different team with a healthy Kawhi Leonard on the floor. Kawhi Leonard is still one of the best defenders in the NBA. The Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. They are allowing less than 1 point per possession.

The Suns are a solid 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time. 

The Suns are playing at a slightly below league average tempo of 16th. The Clippers are 21st in the NBA in tempo in the last eight games. 

The two offenses are 11th and 16th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. 

These two teams are going to battle for positioning in the logjam that is the NBA Pacific Division. I think this total is a few points too high considering the changes in the two teams lately.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early start at home for the Houston Rockets. It's a weekday early start because of the MLK Holiday on Monday. 

The Detroit Pistons have been playing some very good basketball in the last few weeks. The main reason for that has been their improved play on the defensive end. Detroit is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

Both Detroit and Houston are playing at a slightly slower pace than the NBA average in the last ten games. This total is set at a pretty high number.

Houston is 4th season to date in defensive efficiency. The Rockets have length and they have been able to bother a lot of shots. 

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass.

Early start times have trended under pretty heavily in the NBA in the last 15 years. That has been especially true of games outside of the eastern time zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 14 games in a row. They have the best record in the Western Conference, and the second best record in the NBA. Oklahoma City can be great on offense at times, but their defense is what is consistently leading them to win after win. 

Oklahoma City is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Thunder are only 16th in pace in the league.

Boston is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 28th out of 30 in pace. 

The Celtics are the defending champs and I think they get up for a game against a team on a winning streak like this. On the other hand, the Thunder have a chance to prove they are for real here against the top dog.

The early Sunday games have been good under wagers in the last decade. That has been especially true when it is a game outside of the Eastern time zone. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are two of the very best defenses in the NBA. In fact, in the last 15 games these are the first and second ranked defenses in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. These are both teams who have the potential to go deep into the playoffs. 

I expect both teams to be highly motivated here. Oklahoma City is 15th in tempo in the NBA in the last 15 games. Minnesota is 26th in pace in the league in that time. The pace here should be relatively slow.

New Year's Eve games have trended quite a bit toward the under in the NBA in general in the last couple decades. Both teams will be off on January 1st. 

I like the spot for the defenses to show up in a tight hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Minnesota is 23rd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten contests. 

Dallas is 10th and they have gradually slowed down a bit over the course of the season. The Mavericks are excellent on offense, but they have locked teams down on defense at home. Dallas is 9-5 to the under at home with an average margin of 6.3 points under the total. That's the biggest under margin at home of any team in the NBA.

Dallas is sixth best in the NBA in home points allowed per game. Minnesota is fourth best in the NBA in points per game allowed on the road.

This is an early Christmas Day contest. The NBA Christmas Day games have been good to under bettors in general, but the earlier games on Christmas have been far better to the under than games occurring later in the day. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last 8 games, Minnesota is the top NBA defense and it isn't very close. The Timberwolves are allowing 0.999 points points per possession in that time. The second best team is allowing 1.036 points per possession. 

Minnesota is 26th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Atlanta Hawks are only 23rd in offensive efficiency during that time too. Atlanta is 15th in defensive efficiency.

Minnesota is one of the slower paced teams in the NBA. The Hawks do play at a fast pace, but that is definitely accounted for in this high totals number.

Brian Forte is one of the best under referees in the NBA. The under is a whopping 569-470 in his games in his career. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing lockdown defense of late. Minnesota is easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. They are allowing just 0.938 points per possession during that time. They are 24th in offensive efficiency during that same period. Minnesota has been settling for too many bad shots on offense. Minnesota's pace is 24th quickest in the league, so they are playing slowly.

LeBron James is out for this game for the Lakers. James has the lowest individual defense rating of anyone on the Lakers team. The other guys who will get more time have a worse offensive rating, but have been significantly better than James on defense. The Lakers are 22nd in pace in the last five games.

Aaron Smith and Marc Davis are two of the referees in this contest and they have been two of the very best under refs in the business.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last six games, the Cleveland Cavs have the fourth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency. The Miami Heat have the tenth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency.

Miami is 28th in that time in tempo. I'm confident the Heat will have a good game plan ready. That game plan should including slowing the game down and trying to win in a lower possession environment. 

The last three games between these two have been below this total. I think both defenses should bring the intensity here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder have length and athleticism all over the place on the court. So far this season, the Thunder are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City is allowing a little less than 95 points per game so far this season. 

The Portland defense is league average so far this year, which is a clear improvement from a year ago. 

Portland's offense is bottom five or so in the NBA. The Blazers just don't have very many efficient scorers. I think Portland will try to slow the pace of this game down a bit. 

Oklahoma City is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but they are only 23rd in offensive efficiency. 

Divisional games early in the season have been strong to the under in the NBA in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'm not sure that oddsmakers have caught up with how fast the Chicago Bulls are playing. They are playing more than 3 possessions per game faster than the second fastest paced team in the NBA. 

The Bulls also happen to have a terrible defense. Chicago is 28th in transition rate allowed, so the Magic should get plenty of run out chances here. The Bulls are bottom five in the NBA in rim rate allowed. Orlando was first last year in the NBA in rim rate. The Magic are going to get to the hoop and have plenty of close looks.

Chicago is putting up a lot of three pointers and Orlando is 23rd in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Bulls have plenty of paths to scoring too.

The fast pace is helped by officials who have trended toward the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Early in the season the divisional games in the NBA have gone under the total at a high rate in the last decade. This is a divisional matchup between teams who know each other very well. In fact, they played each other in their last game two days ago. The final score in that one was 109-106. The pace was very slow (95.5 possessions) and both teams shot the ball above average, but it still stayed under this total.

The last four meetings between these two teams have been: 175 points, 215 points, 204 points, and 215 points. All four under this total.

Both of these teams have started this season out playing at a slower pace on average than they did a year ago. They are tied for 21st in the NBA in tempo.

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves were the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. Early in this series we didn't see a Minnesota defense that looked like a great defense. In game four, Minnesota finally ratcheted up the pressure and bothered Dallas. 

Minnesota held the Nuggets to 70 points and 90 points in Game 6 and Game 7 in elimination games. The Timberwolves coaching staff spoke a lot about the focus on defense before and after game four.

The later in the series it gets especially this deep in the playoffs, the tempo of the game typically slows down a bit. There is a lot on the line. 

Dallas has improved in a big way defensively late in the season. They have done a good job on Anthony Edwards in this series. 

Marc Davis is the main referee here and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers pulled off a big comeback in the final seconds of regulation thanks to some heroics from Tyrese Maxey. They then won in overtime at Madison Square Garden. Now, the 76ers come home to play a huge game six down 3-2 in the series.

The pace in this series is very slow. The average pace is 91 possessions. With that pace, it takes 1.10 points per possession to get to this total. The defense has been much better in the last couple games of this series.

There is a lot of long term data showing that close out games in the NBA playoffs have been great to under bettors. That is especially the case if it is game six or game seven. Blindly betting playoff close out games in game 6 or game 7 to the under has an ROI of 16% in the last 15 years. This spot is 9-1 in the last 10 situations. 

This game fits the situation and I think both defenses will be ready to go in this key game on Thursday night. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game in this series had a total of 216.5. That total was a little too high, but now the adjustment has been too large in my opinion. The total was 210 in game three, and now we are 5.5 points lower.

New Orleans has shot the ball miserably in this series. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are far better players than they have looked in this series. The Thunder have a good defense, but it isn't as dominant as it has looked in this three game series.

Oklahoma City's offense has gotten rolling in game two and game three, and I think they will continue to score their points here. They have some matchup advantages in this one.

The pace of the games has been about 95 or 96 possessions. These two teams would only need to average 1.08 points per possession to go over this total with 95 possessions as the tempo of the game. 

The Pelicans are likely to regress positively toward their mean in this game. 

Oklahoma City was 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the regular season. New Orleans was 11th.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Phoenix Suns offense has been terrible in the first two games of this series, but this totals adjustment is too large. The total in the first game was 213.5. We are down 5.5 points.

Phoenix was 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the year. The Suns are likely to get better performances out of Booker and Beal in this game. The Suns defense is only average, and Minnesota can get into the paint against them on a consistent basis. 

The pace of the first two games has been quick enough that even average or slightly below average offensive efficiencies for the teams will equal an over. 

I expect this game to be a bit higher scoring and the total has moved down too much.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams who have nothing to play for at this point. In the very late regular season contests between two teams with nothing to play for, the over has been a really good bet in the last 15 years in the NBA. 

In the last three games of the year, when the home team has a win percentage of 50% or less and the road team has a win percentage of 57% or less, the over is hitting at about 57% in the last 15 years.

The Rockets haven't played a game where the combined total fell below 219 in any of their last 7 games. Six of the seven have been 223 points or higher.

There will be a lot of guys sit out, but I expect the two defenses to put very little effort in here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These teams played last night and the Clippers absolutely smashed the Suns. The final score wasn't indicative of how the game went at all. They coasted after getting a massive early lead.

The Suns have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to 106 points or fewer. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in 6 of their last ten games. The Suns have scored 105 points or fewer in six of their last eight games.

Both teams are battling for position in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Suns really need wins to get up to sixth. The Clippers need to hold fourth.

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Cleveland Cavs in a rare early Sunday start in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. 

Both of these teams have had a good season up to this point. They are also both fighting for playoff positioning. 

This time of the year in the NBA, there can be some games that mean almost nothing to teams. There are also some games that mean a bunch to both teams. This is an example of a game that means a lot to both teams.

These two both prefer to play at a slow pace. There shouldn't many transition buckets in this contest. 

The Clippers have stepped up their defense in recent weeks, but their offense has been subpar. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. They will be without Kawhi Leonard again in this one.

These late season regular season games between two good teams with plenty to play for have trended strongly toward the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers both have a lot to play for as far as positioning in the standings heading down the stretch of the regular season. The Western Conference standings are bunched tightly together. The Nuggets are tied with the Timberwolves at the top and they are both just one game ahead of the Thunder. The Clippers have been dropping and are still in danger of dropping out of the top four.

Late season games between two teams with this high of a win percentage have been great to under bettors. In fact, games with a total of 220 or higher with high win percentage teams late in the season are above 60% to the under.

Kawhi Leonard will miss this game and Jamal Murray is a game time decision. I expect both defenses to be highly motivated.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Denver Nuggets are both bottom seven in the league in tempo for the season. They are also both top ten in the league in defensive efficiency for the season overall.

Jamal Murray is a big offensive catalyst for the Nuggets. Denver has been struggling on offense without him. In their last two games, Denver has scored 97 and 98 points against the Suns and the Timberwolves.

Murray is listed as questionable for this game, but Michael Malone made it sound like on Saturday that Murray isn't ready to play quite yet and the team wants to play it safe with him.

The Cavs have had some of the lower scoring games in the league this year. 

This is a late season game between two teams with a very good record. These games have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA. This is also an early start on Sunday and those have been solid unders in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets have consistently been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year. They are also 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are a great offensive team too, but their games have been lower than many expected because of the improved defense and a slower tempo.

Phoenix plays at about the league average in tempo. They are 13th in defensive efficiency for the year. 

This is a very late season game that means a lot to both teams. There are very strong under angles in the NBA for games between two teams with win percentages above 55% late in the regular season. 

Denver is now in the top spot in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are just ahead of Oklahoma City and Minnesota. 

Phoenix is tied for the Kings in 7th/8th, but they are only one game behind the Pelicans in the 5th spot. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have been an under machine of late until last night. Indiana actually ranks top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Pacers lost a wild shootout against the Lakers last night, and I think they will give a better defensive effort here. 

The LA Clippers are 26th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They have made a concerted effort to slow the pace down in recent weeks. The Clippers are off a bad defensive performance in a 121-107 loss to the 76ers.

This is a late season game between two teams with a winning record and with a high total. This has been a very strong system to the under in the last decade in the NBA. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a different team under Doc Rivers. Milwaukee has slowed the pace down. Overall, they have improved at least somewhat on defense as well. Milwaukee's offense is only 18th in efficiency in the last 5 games though.

Middleton is expected back for this game for the Bucks. Giannis is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Middleton back is a positive, but it might take him some time to get back in the swing of things.

Phoenix is playing at a slightly slower than league average pace. The Suns are a little above average for the year in defensive efficiency.

This is a very early Sunday game. It's a noon local start time. Early Sunday unders have done very well in the NBA in the past 15 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are much better on defense than most believe. They are a team that is middle of the pack in tempo in the NBA. 

Atlanta is without Trae Young here. Without Young, Atlanta is a completely different team without Young. They are better defensively, and they are far worse on offense. Additionally, Atlanta is playing at a much slower pace. In Atlanta's last seven games (the games without Young) they are 23rd in the NBA in tempo. In those seven games, Atlanta is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency too. 

I think this total is too high given the situation for Atlanta and the underrated nature of the Pelicans defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly playing differently with Doc Rivers as their head coach. They have slowed the pace down and they have been playing much better defense.

Milwaukee ranks 26th in the NBA in pace in the last five contests. The LA Clippers rank just 21st, so they are pretty slow paced as well.

The Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. The Clippers are 13th. 

Milwaukee's games were totaled extremely high with Coach Griffin, but Rivers and the Bucks are playing differently. 

The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook and they could be fatigued here after playing on Sunday as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Timberwolves and the Thunder rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season and for the last ten games. These two teams are winning with their defenses. 

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses. Detroit beat OKC in a stunner on Sunday. Minnesota lost to the Spurs on Saturday. 

These teams are tied at the top of the Northwest Division. This games means a lot to both teams. In the NBA, the long term trends strongly suggest that more important games where both teams are highly motivated leads to more unders.

In the last five times these two teams have played each other- four of those games have stayed under the total. 

The intensity should be high here, and I like this one to stay under the total. 

*3 Star Play Under* Even in today's NBA, this is a very high total. The Indiana Pacers are without star Tyrese Haliburton and they haven't looked like the same team without him. With Haliburton, the Pacers are first in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. In the last three games without him, they have been a bottom ten team in the NBA in efficiency on offense. 

The Pacers have also played a bit slower without their floor general leading the way. The Pacers backups have been solid on defense.

The Utah Jazz have shot the ball extremely well their last couple games. This is an average team offensively for the year, and regression is likely coming for them.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Orlando and Miami are in the bottom ten in tempo in their last five contests. Both Orlando and Miami are also in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency in that time span.

This is a divisional contest where the two teams are fighting in the standings- right now they are even. 

Orlando is without Wagner, their leading scorer, in this contest. Jimmy Butler is expected to miss this game for the Heat too. Tyler Herro is doubtful as well. That is some serious scoring threats likely to be out for this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are clear favorites here, and Denver is the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Golden State is just 13th in the league in tempo. The Warriors don't play as quickly as they did a few years ago.

This is a really high total for the projected pace here. Earlier this year these two teams met, and the total in that game was set at 228 points. The game finished 108-105. 

Christmas Day unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially the case in early day games. This one is a rare 12:30 pm local time tipoff in Denver.

Both of these two rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers and Utah Jazz have met three times already this year. Two of the games finished 226 and 214 points. The other game went into overtime, but at the end of regulation it was 212 points. 

Portland is last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing at home. The Utah Jazz are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency when playing on the road.

Utah plays at a league average pace and the Blazers play much slower than the league average.

The lead referee in this game is Brian Forte. The under is 530-438 in his games in his career. He's been one of the best under refs in the league.

Take the under in this divisional battle.

*3 Star Play Under* Do I really want to bet a Pacers/Bucks under? No. This number is so high though. It is the highest total in an NBA game this year. This is a strange mid afternoon start time in Las Vegas on a neutral court. It is a semifinal game in the NBA In Season Tournament. 

The players do seem to care at least a decent amount about the In Season Tournament. The Bucks defense has improved a bit in recent weeks and the team has been talking a lot about needing to step up defensively in a game like this. 

Indiana plays quickly and they are a good offense. The Pacers recent games being so high scoring has pushed this total up quite a bit.

Earlier this season these two met and the total was 239.5. This is a huge adjustment for a game being played a little less than a month later. The first game hit 250 points with good shooting numbers. 

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets have played a string of very high scoring teams in a row of late. The Hornets have taken on the Pacers, Mavericks, and then the Wizards twice in a row in their last four games. They now take on the New York Knicks who play a completely different style of basketball. 

New York is bottom five in the NBA in tempo. The Knicks are also top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Knicks aren't likely to get intro a track meet with the Hornets here.

This is an extra early tipoff at Madison Square Garden. These Sunday early tip times have been good to under bettors in the long run in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies meet tonight. Dallas has had two high scoring games this year so far, but the Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in the league. Marcus Smart is a great defensive player, but his efficiency numbers on offense aren't likely to be very good especially with the Grizzlies shorthanded right now.

With Smart and Jackson the Grizzlies have two of the very best defensive players in the league. I do think they can matchup better defensively with Dallas than most teams. 

The Mavericks have played fast so far this season, but I think that is at least partially because of who they have played against in those two games. 

Divisional unders early in the season have been great in the past decade.

The referees in this one are a big plus for lower scoring. Two of the three refs here have a large sample size and are 54.4% and 55.7% to the under in their career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies square off in a nice divisional contest in their first game of the new season for both teams. 

Early in the NBA season the under has typically cashed a bit more frequently than the over in the past 20 years. The angle is much stronger when it is a divisional game. The higher the posted total the stronger the angle has been. 

This is a high total because games between these two are typically pretty fast in pace. Both of these teams were top 6 in defensive efficiency last year. 

Marcus Smart is a good add for the Grizzlies team. Without Ja Morant, the Grizzlies are without their offensive star. Smart is an excellent defender though. Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the best defenders in the NBA.

Herb Jones is a strong defender for the Pelicans. The Pelicans slowed their pace down last year on the whole to a league average. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game two went over the total because both teams shot the ball lights out. It still only finished at 219 points. The Heat made 17 three pointers and the Nuggets shot 52% from the floor. Miami scored a ridiculous 1.291 points per possession and the Nuggets scored an above average 1.241 points per possession. 

The pace of the game was a very slow 86.5 possessions. Miami has clearly decided to try their best to slow the pace of this series down. It worked in game two. They'll likely do it again here, and I don't think we can assume the shots will keep falling at this rate either.

This is pivotal game for both teams. It was assumed the Nuggets were going to roll to a win after game one and the first half of game two. Denver did some sleepwalking on defense in the fourth quarter of Game 2. I wouldn't think that will happen again. The Heat are an above average defense and they have decided to let Jokic score and try to cut down on his assists.

I like this one to be a tighter lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have gotten back in this series with their defense. Boston has turned up the pressure defensively. Miami is an above average defensive team, and for the majority of the season they were a below average offense.

In Game 5, the game finished at just 207 points despite the two teams shooting the ball well. In fact, they averaged 1.25 and 1.115 points per possession in that game. The pace was just 87.5 possessions in that game. That was the slowest paced game in the series.

In the NBA playoffs, as the games get bigger the pace generally slows down. The stakes are massive for this game. Boston is in a win or go home spot, and yet you could argue the pressure has shifted back onto Miami. They don't want any part of this series getting evened up at 3 and going back to Boston. No NBA team has blown a 3-0 series lead. They certainly don't want to be the first.

This total has been adjusted down a bit, but I don't think it is enough. This should play out like a game where both teams feel their backs are up against the wall in a must win spot. 

Malcolm Brogdon is banged up for the Celtics and Gabe Vincent is injured for the Heat too. Those guys had been key offensive contributors down the stretch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat host the New York Knicks in Game 6. The Heat have a chance to finish off this series and go to the Eastern Conference Finals. I think there is a good chance they will do so, but I'm going to back the under here.

Game 6 and Game 7 in the NBA playoffs have been good to under bettors. The game typically slows down a bit and the defensive intensity increases even more. These are two above average defensive teams. Both coaches are well known for being good defensive minds. 

The Knicks have been a team that is prone to scoring droughts. Jalen Brunson has been consistent, but the rest of the team has been streaky shooting the basketball. The Heat have been very good offensively in the playoffs, but I still doubt that in the long run they can continue to shoot the basketball this well against good defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The stats from the 76ers overtime one point win over the Celtics in Game Four are really something else. The game played to a snail's pace at 86 possessions. That's the slowest pace of any game in the NBA playoffs so far this postseason. 

Both teams shot the lights out in that game. Philly had 1.22 points per possession and Boston had 1.21 points per possession. Despite shooting the ball tremendously, the game had 214 points before overtime. Even if we assume the pace will be a bit quicker in this one (it likely will be) the teams have to shoot the ball well to get past this posted total. 

If there are 91 possessions in the game and the teams average 1.15 points per possession, that would be between 209 and 210 points. These are two top eight defenses in the league. At times Boston has shown the ability to shut the opposition completely down. I don't expect James Harden to continue to shoot the percentage he shot last game.

At 2-2 this is clearly a huge game for both teams. I expect the intensity to be there in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game One in this series saw the 76ers pull off a big upset in Boston 119-115. The Celtics defense in that game was very weak. I would expect a much stronger effort from Boston here. Boston is a top three defense in the NBA. They should be able to come up with a much better plan to slow down James Harden in Game two. 

Joel Embiid is doubtful to play in game two. The Sixers offense clicked beautifully in game one, but in game two I expect them to see much tougher resistance.

The pace of game one was just 91 possessions. The offensive efficiency numbers were off the charts in game one. The 76ers averaged 1.293 points per possession and the Celtics averaged 1.278 points per possession. 

Even if we assume the pace will be two possessions quicker than last game and then normalize the offensive efficiency to about 1.16 points per possession (still good numbers offensively) the total would be slightly under 216 points. 

I think the three point adjustment up in this totals number gives us some value to take the under in the second game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's game seven of what has been the most exciting first round series in the NBA playoffs. Golden State shockingly was blown away at home in Game 6, so we are back to Sacramento for Game 7.

It is win or go home time for both teams. There is a bunch on the line in this one, and that usually means the defensive intensity picks up a bit more. The tempo is usually a bit slower. It will still be pretty fast in this matchup, but I think it will be a tick slower than the other games in the series. Many times in the past the refs will let them play a bit more in a game 7 as well, so hopefully we don't run into a ref crew that wants to make this all about them. 

Three of the six games in this series have stayed under this total even before they reached this critical game seven contest.

Game 7's in the NBA playoffs are 35-22 to the under in the last 57 with an average overall winning margin of about 5 points per game. 

It isn't easy to take an under between these two, but the long term systems have me on this under at a high number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks had the 4th best defense in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency in the regular season. Miami was an average offensive team in the regular season. 

The Miami Heat have been absolutely shooting the lights out so far in this series. Miami has been torching the nets from 3 point range. Duncan Robinson is shooting 76.5% from 3 point range in this series. Jimmy Butler is shooting 53% from 3 point range in the series. Gabe Vincent is shooting 47.6% from 3 point range. Butler is fantastic and the Heat's offense has been very good, but I don't think they can keep up this ridiculous shooting. 

Milwaukee is in a win or go home situation here. The Bucks should bring the intensity in a big way here. 

Milwaukee's offense has been inconsistent and the Heat do have a strong defense. Spoelstra is a really good defensive mind.

These closeout games have been solid for under bettors in the long run, and I think the pace should slow down a bit in a game of this magnitude. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat are averaging an insane 1.244 and 1.235 points per possession in the first two games of this series. It's extremely hard to continue to shoot the ball that well, especially in the playoffs when the intensity is very high.

The Bucks and Heat are both above average defenses. Erik Spoelstra is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have a good defensive game plan to slow down the Bucks after the Heat were awful on defense in Game Two. 

Giannis is questionable here. I do like the play whether he plays in this one or not. The Bucks have the guys to make life difficult for Jimmy Butler. 

The regular season meetings between these two teams were far lower than these two playoff games have been. I think we see some regression to the mean.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers made 21 three pointers in Game One of this series. Brooklyn shot better than 60% for the majority of the game and still lost by a large margin. 

The pace of the game was an extremely slow 90.5 possessions. Set to a normalized points per possession figure for these two, a game at that pace should finish with about 206 or 207 points total. The first game was abnormally high because of the white hot shooting in the first half.

I'm going to bet that the shooting here cools off. These are both above average defenses and I think there will be some good adjustments made. 

I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have a very good team, and they are good at dictating the pace with Chris Paul running the show. Paul's teams have tended to like to play in the halfcourt more than not. The Suns this year are the same way. They are an above average defensive team too.

Paul George is out for the Clippers, and he is primarily an offensive star. Kawhi Leonard is a defensive superstar and he should be able to make the Suns stars take some difficult shots here. Tyronn Lue is a good defensive minded coach too.

This total is the same it was earlier this month when these two played in the regular season. This game means much more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is technically the first game of the playoffs with the play in tournament now complete. 

The Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers square off here. The Nets have slowed their pace down drastically late in the season. They rank 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 15 games. Philadelphia ranks 30th in tempo in that time frame. This game should be played in the halfcourt. 

Game one in the NBA playoffs tends to be a bit of tighter game with slower tempos to begin with. Early start times have been positive for under bettors through the playoffs and even more so in round one of the NBA playoffs.

The intensity should be up in this one, and I think the open shots will be tougher to come by than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back in the lineup tonight. Durant is a fantastic scorer, but he hasn't played in a long time. Often these stars are a little rusty when they first come back, and Durant won't play his normal amount of minutes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing some very good defenses. They held a high flying Sacramento Kings offense to 115 points. The game before that they had allowed only 96 points to Golden State. Minnesota's tempo has been slower in recent games than it was in the earlier part of the season.

This game matters to both teams. They are battling for position in the standings. The Western Conference playoff race is tight as can be for seeding, and we are coming down to the wire. The effort should be here in a game like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game between two teams who have had a great season, but should continue to try to keep winning to help with the seeding in the playoffs. 

These late season games between two good teams have been very good under angles in the past 15 years in the NBA. In fact, two teams over 60% in win percentage late in the year squaring off has been a 56% plus angle to the under during that game. 

In this one, Philadelphia now narrowly has the slowest pace of any team in the NBA over the last ten games. The Nuggets are 26th in tempo so they don't like to push the tempo either. The 76ers are third best in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers host the Chicago Bulls in a game that means a lot to both teams when it comes to the playoff standings. 

The Lakers have been playing better basketball of late. LeBron James is questionable for this game. If he does return it would likely be on a minutes restriction and he isn't likely to be in top form right away. The Lakers defense has been very good of late. Los Angeles is 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. They have also drastically slowed their pace down from early in the year. They are now playing at a league average tempo.

The Bulls are dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games, and it isn't very close. Chicago is averaging just 94.8 possessions per game in their last ten games. They are also a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This is an early game in Los Angeles on a Sunday. The Sunday early games in the NBA have been very good under wagers for the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets are coming off back to back losses to the Bulls at home and then at the Spurs. Denver really needs a bounce back here. 

The Brooklyn Nets have a completely new look. They do play pretty fast, but they have been playing good defense. Brooklyn is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. Brooklyn is also 27th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. 

Denver is 30-5 at home, and I would expect an improved defensive effort from this team after giving up 128 to the Spurs in their last game.

This is an early start in the Western Conference. It is also a Sunday early game and those have been good under wagers in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like the addition of Mitchell Robinson back into the lineup for the Knicks. Robinson ranks second in defensive efficiency rating on the Knicks team of the players who average 25 minutes of more per game. Robinson is both a very good shot blocker and a good defensive rebounder.

The Knicks already play at a pace as slow as any team in the NBA. New York has had trouble with this Boston defense in their recent meetings.

Boston ranks bottom ten in the league in pace in their last ten games as well. The Celtics are expected to be without Jaylen Brown in this game. Brown is one of the keys to the offense.

This divisional contest is a big game for both teams and I like the defenses to show up strong here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks travel to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers tonight. Philadelphia has a solid history of playing lower scoring games against good teams. The under is 15-3 in the last 18 games the Sixers have played against a team with a winning record.

The ref crew in this game is a combined under record of a very solid 54.03% to the under in more than 1,100 games. This is about the best ref crew you could hope for if betting an under.

The Knicks rank dead last in pace in their last ten games. The 76ers are 24th out of 30 as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jimmy Butler is expected to be back in the lineup tonight for the Heat. Miami has had some very low scoring games of late, but those were against teams who are very good on defense. 

Orlando is a bottom six or eight defense in the NBA. The Magic have played 17 of their last 23 games above this posted total. I think the Heat will have more success offensively against this Magic defense that is especially bad at defending the paint. 

Miami's defense is a good one, but the Magic are averaging 1.211 points per possession in their last five games.  Orlando's youngsters are starting to get much more efficient on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have met twice this year. The posted total in each of the first two games was 235.5. That's about where this one should be again. We're getting several points of line value. This one is inflated due to recent results.

Atlanta's defense is league average in the last ten games. The Bulls are 10th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. These two teams both play near the league average in tempo as well. 

These two teams both come into this game with a high fatigue factor. I think the pace will stay slower than expected here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early game in the week for both these teams. It is Martin Luther King Jr. Day and these teams will meet in the afternoon. 

New Orleans is on a long road trip, and they are without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. The Pelicans frontcourt will likely have trouble with Evan Mobley and company down low on defense for the Cavs.

Cleveland still ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA for the season overall. The Cavs are home and are the better team in this situation (injuries accounted for). Cleveland should be able to control the pace here.

Cleveland is coming off a road trip where they were worn down as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks rank dead last in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. New York is 11th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency during that period. They are very good on the defensive glass. This is a team that typically doesn't want to get in track meet type games.

Detroit plays fast, but they are bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Pistons don't have that many consistent scoring options on offense.

Both of these teams rank lowly in assist percentage.

This is an early game where we could see some scoring droughts in an odd start time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first time Golden State and San Antonio played earlier this year the posted total was 234 points. Now it has jumped by double digits. 

Though the Warriors have had a lot of high scoring games lately, 10 of their last 12 games have gone below this total. The Spurs have had 5 of their last 6 go under this number.

This game will be played in the Alamodome with 60,000 people or so expected to be in attendance. This is a massive venue with a unique shooting backdrop. These two teams both have good shooters, but a total this high on a neutral site that is a football stadium is too high for me.

The adjustment from the first game has been too big too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers will be without Donovan Mitchell in this game. To say that Mitchell has been a large part of the Cavs offense is a massive understatement. Mitchell has been on fire of late, and everything has been running through him. Darius Garland is also listed as questionable for this game. Raul Neto will get more minutes here, and he is a liability on offense. 

The Nuggets are 19th in the NBA in tempo. The Cavs are dead last in tempo. The Cavs are also first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Donovan Mitchell grades out as one of the Cavs weaker defenders, but he is a top offensive performer. 

I think the Cavs offense will be inefficient here. This total is pretty high given the circumstances.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has become a big showcase day for the NBA. The Knicks won the early Christmas game 101-87 last year in the noon eastern start time. 

Christmas Day unders in general have done well, and the earlier starts have been excellent for under bettors. 

These guys still try their best to have a Christmas with family and friends and this is a tough spot to come in here and play a very early tipoff at Madison Square Garden after most of them likely had their family time on Christmas Eve. 

We've seen these games trend to a slower pace and less fouls. 

These two teams are 2nd and 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are 10th and 17th in offensive efficiency. 

This is a divisional rivalry game and I expect the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets meet in a divisional matchup tonight before their break for Christmas Eve. The Mavericks must play again on Christmas afternoon. 

The final day before break at Christmas has been good to under bettors in the long run. These players do want to get home and have some time with family as much as they can.

Even in normal situations, I like the under in this game. Divisional unders with a total of 218 or higher in the first 70 games of the season are 54.5% since 2006. 

All three referees in this game have been good under referees. That is especially the case for Brian Forte who has seen 54.5% of his games in his career stay under. 

These two both rank in the bottom six in tempo in the NBA. Houston is 27th in offensive efficiency in the last ten games too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavaliers have played 14 straight games that have finished under this posted total. Cleveland has played 16 straight games that have stayed under this total in regulation. 

Cleveland is playing at the slowest pace in the NBA by a wide margin in their last 15 games. In fact, they are playing 2.5 possessions per game on average slower than the second slowest team in the league during this last 15 game span. They also have been the best defense in the NBA during that time. Cleveland is giving up just 1.043 points per possession. Mobley is a defensive beast, and the Cavs have really bought into their defensive style this season. 

Indiana is a higher scoring team, but they are middle of the pack in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pacers are actually only 25th in offensive efficiency. They play quickly though and have scored points largely because of volume. I don't think the Cavs will get into a track meet with them. 

The Cavs are the much better team, and I like their defense to control this one. Divisional unders have fared much better than non-divisional unders long term in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs have the best defense in the NBA so far this year. They are giving up just 1.066 points per possession. In their last ten contests, Cleveland is allowing only 1.024 points per possession. Cleveland is also playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Cavs are averaging just 94.7 possessions per game in their last ten games.

Donovan Mitchell is questionable and he missed the shoot around for this game. He's obviously a huge part of the Cleveland offense. Kevin Love is out for this game. 

Sacramento is a high scoring team, and that's why the total is this high. The Kings have been even higher at home though, and the Cavs have been good at dictating the tempo. 

Cleveland's last 11 games have stayed under this total in regulation. Only one game went over this number and that was an overtime contest.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. The Cleveland Cavs are 29th in the NBA in tempo. This should be one of the slower paced games you'll see in the NBA regular season. 

Cleveland is first in defensive efficiency in the league when playing at home. The Cavs are 4th in defensive efficiency overall and the 76ers are third. A contest between two teams who work hard on the defensive end. 

The referee crew here is a big positive for the under. Two of the best under refs in the NBA are in this game tonight. Both Davis and Twardowski are nearly 54% to the under in their careers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Charlotte Hornets aren't the same offense without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. Those guys really bump up the efficiency numbers on offense. Terry Rozier is doubtful here too, and he and Ball are the two who really push the pace. 

Memphis has played poor defense overall this year, and that has led to some disappointing outcomes. They were much better defensively last game, and their coaching staff is really working on improving the defensive end.

I think this total would be appropriate if Rozier, Ball, and Hayward were all healthy, but they aren't. With these guys out, I believe this total is a few points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency so far this year. Milwaukee has a ton of length all over the floor, and I would expect them to be a major problem for opposing offenses throughout the season. 

Milwaukee has been playing slower so far this year as well. In their first three games, Milwaukee is playing at a tempo slower than NBA league average. If that continues, I think the Bucks could have some much lower scoring games than expected. Their defense against the Nets last game was excellent.

The Knicks have been good so far this year, but this is a completely different matchup that should trouble them. New York is no faster than league average in tempo either.

This number is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers are two very talented defensive teams. Boston was the best defense in the NBA last year. I see no reason to expect them to be worse on defense this year. The Celtics have length and athleticism all over the floor.

The 76ers have an elite shot blocker down low in Embiid. P.J. Tucker is a difference maker on the defensive end as well. I expect the 76ers to do a much better than average time keeping opponents out of the lane. If the Celtics are nailing a ton of 3's here it could hurt a lot, but overall I see Boston as an inconsistent long range shooting team.

The pace should be about average in this one. The last five meetings between these two teams have seen 4 of those games finish at 211 points or lower. 

Early season unders have done very well in the NBA in the long run. That has been especially true in conference and divisional matchups.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game 7 in Miami- it all comes down to this. The winner of this game goes to the NBA Finals. The loser of this game heads home thinking about what could have been. 

The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA. Boston wasn't good enough defensively against Jimmy Butler in Game 6, but I expect them to make things a lot tougher on him in Game 7. Overall, Miami has really had to work very hard to get open shots in this series, and their backcourt of Lowry and Strus hasn't been good enough on offense.

The Celtics offense is inconsistent. The Miami Heat are capable of playing excellent defense with guys like PJ Tucker locking down on the perimeter. Butler is a good defensive player as well. 

The pace of the game should slow quite a bit with everything on the line. We've seen strong trends toward unders in game 7's in recent decades in the NBA. Look for the two defenses to come with max effort. 

The Celtics were just involved in a very low scoring game 7 against Milwaukee. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors both shot the ball extremely well in Game Two. Golden State averaged 1.286 points per possession in that game. Dallas averaged 1.182 points per possession.

Last game being so high scoring has led to this total being moved up by a few points. In fact, the Warriors and Mavericks have faced off six times this year. This is the second highest posted total of the season in their matchups.

Remember, this is a playoff game that is an absolute must win for the Dallas Mavericks. For a posted total to be the second highest of six matchups between these two- that stands out to me. 

In the playoffs- Dallas has played much slower and played much better defense in their home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the under at home in the playoffs. 

At home in the playoffs their games are averaging just 91.42 possessions and they are allowing only 1.024 points per possession. On the road their games have averaged 94.33 possessions and they are allowing 1.184 points per possession.

Look for Dallas to slow things down some here. The Mavericks should be giving max effort on defense. 

Both of these teams do shoot the ball well and there is potential for them to light it up for 3, but with this being a must win for Dallas and the oddsmakers setting the line several points higher I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team.

It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end.

Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots.

Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation.

Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well.

The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. 

Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. 

Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. 

While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. 

Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. 

In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). 

This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. 

These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. 

The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. 

I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. 

Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively.

Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here.

Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle.

This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul.

Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. 

Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. 

Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. 

A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. 

These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. 

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense.

Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami.

The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo.

Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively.

There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game.

Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders).

This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns are without Chris Paul and Cam Payne right now. Aaron Holiday is questionable for this game. It might be Elfrid Payton and Landry Shamet seeing a lot of time in the backcourt here. 

Utah ranks second slowest in tempo in the last five games and fourth slowest in the league in tempo in their last ten games. The Jazz also rank top five in the league in defensive efficiency in both of those periods. 

Phoenix isn't as elite on offense without Paul on the floor. It puts more pressure on Booker and Ayton.

Early Sunday games have been strong under angles in the long run. Also, from game 60 of the season on a game between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher is 56.7% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two of the best defenses in the NBA. In their last ten games, the Celtics are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Boston is allowing 0.954 points per possession. The second best team in the league is allowing 1.058 points per possession in that ten game span. That kind of a difference between first and second is almost unheard of in the NBA.

The 76ers are 5th in the NBA in the last ten games in defensive efficiency. The 76ers are just as good defensively now as they were before the trade deadline. They did lose a couple key pieces on offense though, and Harden isn't on the floor yet thanks to an injury.

These two teams both rate in the middle of the league in offensive stats in the last ten games. This should be a defensive battle.

Boston ranks as slightly slower than average in tempo, while the 76ers rank 28th out of 30 in the league in tempo.

Take the under.