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*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors meet in a battle of two of the best teams in the NBA tonight. I expect both teams to be ready for this one. Memphis has some very good perimeter defenders in Tony Allen and Mike Conley. Look for those guys to make it their mission to make Golden State's stars take tougher shots than normal. Golden State is usually thought of as a very high scoring team that wins with offense. They can definitely score, but their defense has been the reason they are on an amazing win streak. The Warriors are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies are seventh. Memphis will try to slow this game down. A total set this high is generally reserved for two teams looking to push it or two bad defenses. Those things aren't true here.

The last nine meetings between these two teams have finished below this posted total. I look for this to be the 10th. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Memphis Grizzlies beat the Charlotte Hornets in double overtime on Friday night. I can't imagine they will be too fired up to run up the score as much as they could on the 76ers on Saturday night. Philadelphia is quietly playing a little better of late. What has changed? The 76ers are starting to play much better defense. Philadelphia actually ranks in the top half of the NBA in defense. Memphis ranks in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The 76ers still play relatively fast, but they have slowed down the tempo a bit compared to last year. Memphis is once again one of the slowest paced teams in the league. Some of the 76ers recent games have been very low scoring. This total is a few points too high.

The under is 7-0 in the Grizzlies last 7 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 40% or lower. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been really good on defense all year. Minnesota likes to run, but they are extremely inefficient on offense. I think their offensive woes will be highlighted in this one as Oklahoma City locks things up on the defensive end. Oklahoma City has continued to play at a slower pace even with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook back in the lineup. The three referees in this game definitely lean to the under which is a big help as well. Another interesting note about this game- The posted total here has dropped despite the majority of the public money being on the over. That's a strong signal. The under is 5-0 in OKC's last 5 Friday games. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 following an ATS win. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers are still one of the top ten teams in the league in defensive efficiency. The Clippers are #12 as well, so their defense is better than most realize. Indiana's offense is third worst in the NBA right now, and they don't have much chemistry at all on the offensive end right now. What about the pace of this game? The Clippers average tempo is right at the league average. The Pacers are close to the bottom in terms of tempo. The referees in this one are also helpful. Both Ken Mauer and Haywoode Workman are guys who have consistently been good under referees in the long term. Less fouls in this one could be the difference. The under is 5-1 in the Pacers last 6 home games. This line is a bit inflated. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Cleveland Cavaliers have decided to slow things down in recent weeks. They have also started playing some defense. They now rank right in the middle of the pack defensively. Earlier this year they were among the worst in the league on the defensive end. Toronto's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were before DeRozan went down with an injury. Toronto's pace has slowed down a lot without DeRozan pushing the tempo too. A total set this high is generally saved for teams that push the tempo and play very little defense. That isn't true about either of these teams right now. I had this total set at 201.5. The under is an impressive 8-3 in the Cavs last 11 games. The under is 35-16-1 in the last 52 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers come into this one on plenty of rest, and I think that means some strong defense from the improving Clippers. Though they started the year slowly, this Clippers team is definitely a really talented bunch. New Orleans limps into this game. The Pelicans miss Eric Gordon in a big way. Without Gordon this offense has scored 91 points or less in four of their last five games. Gordon is a guy who puts up 15 points per game when he is healthy, and that's tough to replace. A total set this high typically needs two high scoring offenses. The Clippers can score in bunches, but the Pelicans offense is weakened significantly of late.

The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans last 5 games since Gordon went down with an injury. The under is also 11-5 in the Clippers last 16 vs. a team with a losing road record. That's important because it means the Clippers often flex their muscle on the defensive end in a game like this. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT MONEY* The Golden State Warriors play very fast. Everyone knows the Warriors play fast. What most people don't know is that the Warriors are number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency right now, and second place isn't even close. Steve Kerr has this team playing some amazing defense. New Orleans has a decent offense, but their offense suffered a big blow when Eric Gordon went down with an injury. Their offensive efficiency has been much worse with him out of the lineup. I don't think the Pelicans get very many easy looks tonight. New Orleans will look to slow the game down too, which should help this one. 

The under is 4-0 in the Pelicans last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 Thursday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0 in the Warriors last 4 home games overall. The under is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a double overtime win. I had them as my play of the week in that game, and they did end up getting there. There's no doubt they put in some extra effort in that game though, and there were a lot of tired Mavericks at the end of that game. Dallas has the most efficient offense in the NBA, but I see them being a little less efficient on tired legs tonight. Milwaukee is 7th in the NBA in total defense, and Jason Kidd's team has been working hard on the defensive end. Neither of these teams play all that fast, so a total of 207 is awfully high. With two teams in the top half of the NBA in total defense and some tired legs, I think this stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*4 Star Nets/Knicks Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks offense has been awful of late. New York also plays at the single slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn started out playing fast, but the Nets have slowed down a lot of late. Brooklyn can't play terribly fast because of Brook Lopez. Lopez is one of the reasons Brooklyn is always solid on the defensive end. J.R. Smith is likely to miss this one with an illness, and the Knicks have a hard time scoring to start with. These two teams definitely see this as a real rivalry, and that generally leads to lower scoring games with better defense. The line movement here kept this one from being a top rated play, but my number was 186. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Los Angeles Lakers defense is awful, so taking an under with them is always risky, but the Lakers have showed signs of slowing the game down a bit of late. A total of 206 in a game where one team (Detroit) plays at a very slow pace is definitely worth a look. Detroit hasn't had a game go above 202 in their last nine games. The Pistons are playing improved defense under Stan Van Gundy, but they are a real mess on the offensive end. I had this number at 201 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals CASH* The San Antonio Spurs aren't playing as fast on offense as they did last year. What they are doing though is locking opponents down on the defensive end. Indiana has lots of problems scoring right now with injuries depleting them of their best offensive players. The Pacers are going to slow the game down and play their normal gritty defense. The pace should be slower than expected here, and both teams will have to work hard to score. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 6-1 in the Spurs last 7 home games. A 16-1 angle here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* Anytime you see an NBA total this low, you have to examine the reasons for that number. Oklahoma City is struggling to find anyone who can score consistently with their ridiculous amount of injury problems. The Thunder have Durant, Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Mitch McGary, Perry Jones, and several others all sidelined. Utah toyed with playing uptempo early this year, but they have slowed down a lot in recent outings. Utah's offense isn't efficient, and it's because they aren't as balanced as most teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City has been excellent on the defensive end at home so far this year. The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 home games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Oklahoma City. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic have some serious problems right now. Orlando wasn't any good offensively to start with, and now they have all sorts of injury issues. The Magic are playing without Aaron Gordon for a long time. They are now also without Tobias Harris, who had been their most consistent scorer of late. Harris missed the morning shoot around today, so he is doubtful for tonight's game. Golden State is playing a back to back game here, so I expect them to be a little bit worn down. The Warriors are clearly the much better team and can win this game comfortably, but they might take their foot off the gas a little earlier tonight. The Warriors also have one of the best defenses in the NBA, and the Magic are unlikely to get many open looks here. I think this one stays in the 190's. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Golden State's last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 vs. the NBA Pacific Division. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Orlando between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA Play of Day* The Philadelphia 76ers play at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Phoenix Suns are the fourth fastest in the league in terms of tempo. When these two get together, you can certainly expect a track meet. I'll be the first to admit that this Sixers offense is dreadfully bad, so counting on them can be a little hard, but the value here is too much to overlook. These teams played twice last season. The final scores in those two games were 115-101 and 124-113. The posted totals were 216 and 213.5. We are getting this one at a much cheaper price. The Suns love to run, and they'll put up a very big number here led by their great guards. If the Sixers offense can be decent at all, this one goes over the total. Value play here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Spurs/Cavs Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Cavaliers started the year playing at a much slower tempo than I expected, but in recent games they have picked up the pace in a big way. Cleveland's offense is getting much more efficient, and after a rare poor game offensively las time against Denver, I think we see the Cavs bounce back offensively here. Cleveland has some real problems on the defensive end. The team defense here is about as bad as you'll see. San Antonio is absolutely a team that can take advantage of that with their amazing ball movement. The Spurs have been a little off the mark offensively most of this year, but I think their offense will be humming in this one against one of the worst defenses in the league.  Both teams prefer to push the pace and both of these offenses can put up points in bunches. This total is set at a very reasonable level.

The over is 8-1 in the Cavs last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two. A 16-2 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Sacramento Kings are going to keep playing at a fast pace this year. The Kings early season success has been largely due to their improved defense. While their defense might be a bit better this year, I'm not convinced they can keep playing at the level they have so far this year on the defensive end. New Orleans is number three in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Anthony Davis is a matchup nightmare for just about everyone, and the Pelicans have tons of guys who can shoot it from long range. Sacramento should get their points in transition here too since the Pelicans are below average on the defensive end. The over is 4-0 in the Kings last 4 following a win. The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Celtics tempo has changed in a big way this year. Boston is pushing it at every opportunity, and that is very beneficial for a team with Rajon Rondo at the point guard spot. Boston has a lot of guys that can get into the paint, and the one thing Phoenix really lacks is a shot blocker on the inside. The Phoenix Suns will likely end the season as one of the top three fastest teams in the league in terms of pace. Phoenix wants to run at every opportunity with a backcourt of Dragic, Bledsoe, and Thomas. This game should be a real track meet. Both offenses have been efficient of late, and the defenses are subpar.

The over is 6-0 in the Celtics last 6 vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 after the Celtics gave up 100 points or more last game. The over is 5-0 in the Celtics 5 home games this year. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic meet on Monday night. Detroit is a different team than they were last year. They are playing much better defense for new coach Stan Van Gundy. I expect that trend to continue since Van Gundy has proven to be a good defensive coach in the past. Detroit has been very poor on offense though. The Pistons rank in the bottom six in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is just as inefficient on offense. The Magic are unlikely to be as good on offense now with Aaron Gordon out of the lineup also. Orlando's tempo is right around the league average, while Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo in the league. This should be an ugly one. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies  have played some abnormally high scoring  games in their past  couple contests. Memphis won high scoring affairs against both the Lakers and  the Kings the past few days. Detroit is  a much different  team  than Sacramento or  Los Angeles. The Pistons are one of the least efficient offenses in the NBA. They also rank 23 out of 30 NBA teams in terms of pace. Memphis ranks 25 out of 30 teams in pace. The Grizzlies also have one of the best defenses in the NBA. It would be a big surprise if Detroit has consistent success on offense in this game. Memphis tends to not blow out their opponent.  Look for a low scoring contest here. The recent high scores in Memphis’ last 2 games give us good line value on the under. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks both rank near the bottom of the NBA in offensive efficiency. Orlando is 25th out of 30 teams in the league and Milwaukee is 29th. Milwaukee deserves credit for the way they are playing defense though. The Bucks have been the second best defense in the NBA through the first couple weeks of the year. Jason Kidd is doing a good job getting this young team to buy into his system. Orlando's defense is middle of the pack. With two teams who don't play particularly fast and two teams who generally shoot a very low percentage, a total of 193.5 is several points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA RED HOT Run CASH* The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings have a long history of playing uptempo high scoring games against each other. Phoenix is making an even bigger effort to run this year. Why wouldn't they? The Suns backcourt has Eric Bledsoe, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas who are all absolutely speed burners. The Suns big men (Morris twins and Plumlee) aren't particularly good at sitting in the low post, but they can run the floor extremely well. Sacramento is always glad to run the floor, and their coaching staff is loaded with coaches who have a history of pushing the tempo. They put up 131 points in their last win. Rudy Gay is a scoring machine, and Cousins will have an advantage in the interior. Five of the last six meetings between these two have finished at 210 points or higher. Expect lots of transition buckets and a bunch of points here. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks have both improved a great deal on the defensive end from last year. Both of these teams have new coaches and that has led to a much more concerted effort on the defensive end. Jason Kidd is preaching defense in a big way, and the Bucks have several athletic shot blockers down low. Detroit didn't even pretend to try on defense last year, but Stan Van Gundy won't allow that this season. In addition to two improved defenses, we have two offenses that aren't efficient at all. Both of these teams rank in the bottom six teams in the NBA in terms of offensive efficiency so far this year. All three referees here are what I would consider good draws for an under play. I made this line 189.5. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Knicks/Nets Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets played fast in their first couple games this year, but that was before Brook Lopez came back in the lineup. With Lopez back, the team slows the pace down quite a bit. Lopez also provides the team with a good defender in the middle of the paint. New York is playing at a far slower pace than any team in the NBA through the first few games. The Knicks are still learning their new offense, and it seems like that has caused them to be more cautious and hesitant. Two of three referees in this game are favorable for this under play as well. Look for a game that is played in the halfcourt. This line is several points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Totals Takedown* The Sacramento Kings rank fifth in the NBA in terms of pace. Denver ranks third in the NBA in pace. When these two meet, you are going to see a lot of transition opportunities and quick shot attempts. While both teams have solid defensive numbers so far this year, I'm not buying that these are two of the best defenses in the NBA. The Kings have a lot of guys on their roster who can score in bunches, but they haven't committed themselves on defense in their career. These two teams met last week in Denver and the Kings won 110-105. The referee assignments for this game are helpful as well. Scott Foster is consistently one of the best over refs in the league, and he is the lead referee tonight. Josh Tiven is also a nice over referee. There should be plenty of pace here and a good amount of trips to the stripe too. Take the over. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week* The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors both made it clear in the preseason that they want to play far faster than they did last season. We're already seeing evidence of that from both teams. Boston is second in the NBA so far this averaging 108 points per game. Toronto has scored at least 100 points in every game this year, and they are averaging 104.8 points per contest. I like both of these coaches, and I think they are both making a wise decision to push the tempo based on their personnel. These are two teams that have depth in the backcourt and not a whole lot of inside scoring on the roster. Since these teams didn't play particularly fast last year, the oddsmakers take some time responding to the new look of the team. That allows us to have some value playing the over with them for the first couple weeks. Also, Boston ranks 25th in FG percentage defense and Toronto ranks 29th. There should be lots of quick easy buckets in this one.

The over is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 vs. the Atlantic Division. The over is 4-0 in Toronto's last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 13-0 angle. Take the over big! *Please note this line has moved up since I selected it shortly after the open. I would still play this for 5 stars up to 205, 4 stars to 206.5, and 3 stars to 208. Thank you!*

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Rockets are playing at a little bit slower pace this year. They are also playing much better on the defensive end. Their offense isn't quite as potent without Chandler Parsons, but their defense is better. Miami isn't going to be a team that plays terribly fast, and I think the Heat's defense will still rank in the top half of the league despite losing James. Houston's lines have been set too high all year, and I don't think this one is any different. The Rockets defense is stepping up, and a line of 204 is simply too high. I made this line 199.5 points, so I see a few points of value in this one. 

The under is 6-0 in the Rockets last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have vowed to pick up the pace with Quin Snyder at the helm. He wants the team to move more quickly and pass the ball more often. The Phoenix Suns could end up as the highest scoring team in the NBA this year. I love their pickup of Isaiah Thomas. He teams up with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe to create a ridiculously quick backcourt for the Suns. Phoenix pushed it some last year, but their tempo should be off the charts quick this season. Utah's defense isn't good at all (they were worst in the NBA last year), and the Suns were in the bottom ten as well. This game should be played at a quick tempo and we'll see lot of possessions for each team. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Red HOT Run Total* By all accounts, the Sacramento Kings want to run this year. They hired a coaching staff that wants to push the tempo and go small as often as possible. While the Kings first game finished at a low score, it wasn't because the teams played slowly. In fact, Sacramento and Golden State played out to the single fastest pace of any game thus far in the NBA season. Both teams just shot the ball really poorly. Portland had one of the most efficient offenses in the league all year last year and the Kings don't have an answer to guys like Aldridge and Lillard on the defensive end. This line is definitely an overreaction to the Kings low scoring game in the opener. Too much value here to pass up. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are implementing a faster style of play with Jason Kidd as coach this year. Milwaukee's roster fits a fast paced offense much better than a slow it down style. Jabari Parker will be a nice piece in his rookie season, and I expect good seasons from O.J. Mayo and Brandon Knight. Philadelphia is all about running and gunning. The 76ers are a terrible team, but they are going to put up as many shots as they can. Coach Brown has them in shape and he expects them to run for four quarters every single game. You won't see much effort on the defensive end from these guys though. This looks like a game where both teams put up a lot of quick shots and even with a relatively low shooting percentage it finishes over the total.

The over is 9-0 in the 76ers last 9 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 or more in their previous game. The over is 4-0 in Milwaukee's last 4 Friday games. The over is 4-0 in the Bucks last 4 on Friday. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the previous game. A 35-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic plan to pick up the tempo this year. Coach Vaughan has said all throughout the preseason that he believes his team's best chance to win is to speed up the game with their athletes. With youngsters like Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton on the roster, I do expect the Magic to have success in transition. Orlando won't be very good defensively though, and the Wizards should get plenty of easy buckets. Washington has a big mismatch on the inside, and look for the Wizards to dominate the offensive glass and get a lot of easy putbacks. Orlando stayed under the total in their first game against a New Orleans team that likes to slow the tempo down, but Washington prefers to run as well. John Wall is at his best in transition. Both teams should push the pace here. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers look a whole lot different than they did last year. Indiana is without the injured Paul George. George isn't the only key injury though. The Pacers are going to be without David West, George Hill, and CJ Watson in this game. That means Donald Sloan will start at the point guard here. Lance Stephenson is no longer on the team, and he was their second best scoring option in the backcourt last year. Without George, West, Stephenson, and their two point guards, the Pacers have some real offensive question marks. The team they are up against has all kinds of issues too though. The 76ers are without Michael Carter-Williams for this game. Joel Embiid is out with an injury as is Jason Richardson. This is a Sixers team that loves to play fast and push the pace, but the Pacers aren't going to want any part of that. Even though Philadelphia played fast last year, they had the least efficient offense in the league.

Late last year, with both teams at full strength, these two played to a final score of 99-90. I expect a really ugly game here. Neither team is going to be good. The Pacers have a good defense with Roy Hibbert in the middle though, and they should control the tempo. Take the under.  

*3 Star Spurs/Heat Total CASH* I took the under in Game Two and it cashed in by five points despite the Heat shooting 52% from the floor and the Spurs knocking down 12 three-point shots. The pace of these games has been plenty slow, and even with high shooting numbers the under is showing value. If the shooting percentages come down to a more normalized number, I would expect the game to stay well under the posted total. The under is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings between these two in Miami. Both teams can't keep shooting it great forever. Remember, these are two very good defensive teams as well. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Heat/Spurs Total CASH* The San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat combined to hit 25 three-point shots in Game One. The posted total still only finished over this number by six points. The Spurs shot 59 percent from the floor in that game. Those kind of shooting numbers can't be expected again. The posted total here is several points too high. Keep in mind these teams were very similar in last year's NBA Finals, and the totals were set around 190 for each game. The public likes the over because of all the points from game one, and that gives us a chance to take the value side. Take the under. 

*3 Star Spurs/Thunder 100% CASH* The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet in Game 6 on Saturday night in Oklahoma City. The lowest scoring games have all been played in Oklahoma City. That's because Oklahoma City's defense has shown up on their home court. With their backs up against the wall, I expect OKC to show up on defense again here. The Spurs shot the lights out last game, and the Thunder are facing elimination here. The pace generally slows down in elimination games, and this is a very high posted total. Look for a closer game here finally, and look for both defenses to step it up in a game that means a bunch to both teams. 

The under is 5-0 in the Spurs last 5 playing on a day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Finals games. The under is 6-0 in OKC's last 6 games playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in OKC between these teams. A 50-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Thunder/Spurs Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder play a pivotal Game 5 in San Antonio on Thursday night. Since Serge Ibaka has come back for the Thunder, this has been a totally different series. I expect a close game in this one rather than the blowouts we have been seeing, but I do expect both defenses to play well. Oklahoma City is excellent defensively with Ibaka in the lineup, and the Spurs are underrated defensively as well. The past two games have coasted under the total despite relatively good shooting numbers. 

The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 playing on one day of rest. The under is 4-0 in OKC's last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 when playing on a single day of rest. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 after allowing 100 points in their last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Heat/Pacers Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat are in a potential close out spot here. I like playing the under in close out opportunities, because it generally brings out the best in the two defenses because of the increased importance in the game. Indiana's defensive effort slacked last game, but I expect them to fight harder here in this situation at home. The shooting numbers in the last couple games have been very high, and I expect those to come down to a more normalized figure here. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two in Indiana. Take the under. 

*3 Star Spurs/Thunder 100% CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder will likely get Serge Ibaka back in this one. Ibaka is a real defensive presence and he would make the Spurs work much harder in the paint. Even if they don't get him back, I expect the Thunder to make life much tougher on the Spurs offense which has absolutely shredded them up in this series thus far. The Spurs offense has had trouble getting going against the Thunder in Oklahoma City in the past, and the Thunder should show some pride and rise up on the defensive end in this one. San Antonio's defense is underrated this year as well. Look for a much tighter game here and two defenses that come ready to play. 

The under is 4-0 in the Thunder's last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. The under is 5-0 in OKC's last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two in Oklahoma City. A 13-0 angle. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Heat/Nets Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat meet for Game 4 in Brooklyn on Monday night. Brooklyn made 15 three-pointers in Saturday night's game, and that game still barely went over the posted total. It's absolutely obvious that the Nets are doing their best to stall and grind these games to a halt vs. the Heat. Even though they are down 2-1 in the series, the Nets have played this series at their pace. Barring some ridiculous shooting percentages again, I believe this game stays under the posted total. This is a big game for both teams and the defenses should step up. Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play Total DOMINATION* I bet the under in the first game between these two and it came up a loser. A dunk with less than 10 seconds left cost me that win. It was a bad beat loser. The under lost because the scrubs pushed the tempo and scored like crazy in the last few minutes of the game. Looking closer at the box score from game one, the under was definitely the right play. The Heat shot 57% from the floor in that game. The Nets were blown out, but they still shot a very respectable 47% from the floor. There were 19 made three-point shots in Game One. With all of that being the case, the game only went over this total by one point. The defenses should be better here. I like the value on this under. Take the under big! 

*3 Star Nets/Heat Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat do have a fairly difficult second round matchup in the Brooklyn Nets. I expect Miami to win the series, but the Nets might make it competitive. The Nets do a great job knowing how to slow down this Heat offense. Miami thrives on fastbreak easy opportunities, and Brooklyn does a good job slowing the game down and forcing the Heat to beat them in the halfcourt. Brooklyn slowed the pace down to 88.8 possessions when they played the Heat this year, which is nearly five possessions slower than Miami's average game played to during the season overall. The fact that this should be a slow paced game makes me like the under quite a bit here.

The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 conference semifinals games. The under is 7-0 in the Nets last 7 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Portland Blazers have a second shot to close out the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Portland was unable to do it on the road last game, and if they don't win here they'll have to go back to Houston for Game 7. The potential close out spots are great chances to back the under in general. Defenses play harder and teams generally slow things down a bit. Last game stayed under at 206 and I cashed in there. I expect this one to stay below 210 as well. Great chance to play the under in a game that means a ton to both teams. Lots of pressure on both the Blazers and Rockets. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Dallas Mavericks are now fighting to stay alive. They are back at home in Dallas for Game 6. Dallas has proven they are a tough matchup for the Spurs in this series. The Spurs have had trouble getting any separation in this series. This is a potential closeout game and I like playing the under in these spots. Better defense and a slower tempo should be expected for a game that means this much to both teams. The under is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 when their opponent allows 100 or more in the last game. The under is 5-0 in Dallas' last 5 when their opponent scores 100 or more in the last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when Dallas gives up 100 points or more. A 15-0 angle here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total Value* There is some extra value on the under in this game because Game 5 was so high scoring. The shooting percentages in Game 5 were just ridiculously high, and I don't expect to see that in a potential close out game in Brooklyn. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo, and they are both fully capable of bogging down on offense for long stretches of time. Closeout games are great chances to back the under, and last game boosted the value nicely. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to close out this series on Thursday night. Memphis knows the way they have the best chance to win in this series is by slowing the game down and making it a defensive battle. Tony Allen has been tremendous on Kevin Durant in this series, and the Grizzlies have slowed the game down and entered it into the post constantly. Oklahoma City is an excellent defensive team as well. The shooting percentages have been terrible in this series, and that makes sense based on the types of shots they are getting. In a close out game with tons on the line, the tempo should slow down and the defense should get even tougher. The under is the value play here.  Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION*  The Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers have seen three of the first four games in this series go into overtime. The under would have cashed in on two of those games and the extra session pushed the game over. This is a potential close out game, and those are generally played at a slower pace with more defense because of how much the game means to both teams. The fact that overtimes have pushed these games so high on the final point total gives us value on the under here. You can't expect overtime, and if we don't get overtime here, I like our chances of cashing in the under. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Heat/Bobcats Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat are cruising to an easy first round playoff win over the Charlotte Bobcats. It certainly shouldn't be seen as any surprise that it has been so easy for the Heat. Charlotte fought hard and should be commended on their season this year, but the Bobcats are outclassed in every way in this series. One important thing to remember this time of the year is close out games are often lower scoring than the rest of the series. I expect Miami to finish off this series here, and that makes me like the under more. If the Heat get a big lead here, expect the scoring to slow down in a big way as it did in Game Three (32 points in the fourth quarter between the two teams combined). If Charlotte is going to put up a fight here, it will be on the defensive end. Both teams like to slow down the tempo of the game.

The under is 5-0 in Charlotte's last 5 Monday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-1 in Charlotte's last 5 home games. A 13-1 angle. Take the under.