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*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Miami Dolphins are a good team. I'm not ready to say they are almost equal to the Philadelphia Eagles overall though. Miami has a ton of speed on the outside. Tua is playing playing very well at quarterback. The Dolphins still have more weaknesses as a team than do the Eagles.

Miami has played three road games this year. They won by two at the LA Chargers (no HFA for the Chargers here), at New England (7 point win), and at Buffalo (28 point loss). The Dolphins have also played the Giants and Panthers the last couple weeks. The schedule hasn't been difficult on the whole.

Philadelphia has a fantastic offensive line. The Eagles should be able to run the ball on a mediocre Dolphins run defense. The Eagles should be in a bad mood after a -4 TO margin game cost them and they lost 20-14 to the Jets last week. 

The Eagles defensive line should be in the backfield a lot here too. The Eagles are the much stronger team in the trenches. I think they can win this game on the lines here. 

The home field advantage should be great at night in front of the raucous Philly crowd. 

Take the Eagles. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.0. The Detroit Lions defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at just 4.7. Everyone knew the Ravens would have a solid defense and they do, but the Lions defense has improved so much from the past couple years.

Baltimore's offense has been inconsistent this year. The Ravens gained just 5.1 YPP against a mediocre Titans defense last week. The Ravens sit at just 5.2 yards per play on average for the season overall. 

The Detroit offense hasn't had to face many good defenses yet. They put up just 20 against a pretty good Atlanta defense. They scored only 20 on Tampa Bay last weekend.

The weather in this one should be a factor. All of the longer range forecasts are calling for a very windy game here. There are expected to be sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts of around 35 mph. That is enough to really change the game and make things much more conservative.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense is an absolute mess right now. New England couldn't score a point against New Orleans a couple weeks ago, and the offense was still very weak with only 259 total yards of offense against a mediocre Raiders defense last week.

Buffalo's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Bills struggled badly to score last week against the Giants. The Bills defense has held 3 of their last 5 opponents to 10 points or fewer. 

I consider New England a bottom three offense in the the NFL, but the Pats also have a top five or so defense in the NFL.

The weather should be a nice bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of around 18 mph with gusts of 35 mph during this game. That should help cut down on the downfield passing game and make both teams more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints have a top five defense in the NFL. Dennis Allen is a fantastic defensive minded coach. The Saints defense is strong on all levels. There is no clear weakness. 

New Orleans is also a very questionable offensive team. The Saints play calling on offense leaves a lot to be desired. They play slowly and don't hit many big plays.

The Jacksonville Jaguars scored 37 points against the Colts so you would think they were great on offense in that one. They were not even good offensively. It was the Colts turnovers that led to the points. In fact, the Jaguars offense put up just 233 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.

The Jaguars defense now ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in most categories. They held the Colts to 4.8 yards per play. 

Trevor Lawrence is banged up and is getting tests on his knee. He is likely to be less than 100 percent here (assuming he will play). This is a short week.

The Saints have now played 12 straight games that have stayed under this total. Their highest combined total this year is 37 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions are a well coached team that doesn't have a glaring weakness anywhere. Detroit has had a weak defense in past years, but they are sitting at 6th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Lions are 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. 

Detroit picked up a win at Kansas City in game one. They picked up a win at Green Bay in a key divisional game as well. They have been ready to play on the road under Dan Campbell.

Tampa Bay is better than people thought they might be, but I think Baker Mayfield and this Bucs offense is a bit overvalued now. The Bucs still have their offensive limitations. The offensive line isn't that strong, and Mayfield is still a questionable decision maker at times. 

Take Detroit. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots have been blasted in two games in a row. The average NFL bettor isn't going to want to take them. The Raiders are coming off a win on Monday night. Las Vegas only averaged 4.4 yards per play in that win. The Raiders won that game in tight fashion thanks to Jordan Love's interceptions (3). 

New England is still well coached. The Patriots have played a tough schedule to this point. In fact, you could make an argument that this is the worst team they have played so far. New England played Philly and Miami very tough. 

The Raiders playing the Monday night game means they had less time to prepare for this game. 

Buying low and selling high in the NFL is very important. I'm buying the Patriots at a very low point. I'll grab the points.

Take New England. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense has been tremendous all season. New Orleans is also a very cautious offense compared to most in the NFL. They don't take many shots down the field. New Orleans scored 34 points against New England last game, but that is pretty misleading. They averaged just 4.3 YPP. They got a pick six and had multiple short fields due to bad turnovers and the Pats going for it from their own side. 

Houston was beaten right as the clock hit zero by Atlanta 21-19 last game. C.J. Stroud has been fantastic this year. I still think he will find it tougher going in this one than in most games because this Saints secondary is the real deal. The Texans defense is scrappy and they are limiting big plays.

Both teams are coached by defensive minded head coaches. 

The Saints have played a stunning 11 straight games that have finished at a combined 40 points or lower. This year, they have had all 5 of their games finish at 37 points or lower. 

I like this one to stay a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Rams* The Philadelphia Eagles haven't played all that well this year. They are unbeaten, but they have had a lot of close call. The Eagles needed overtime to beat the Commanders at home last week. Philadelphia is 10th in the NFL in yards per play. The LA Rams are 11th. 

The Eagles are 27th in the NFL in passing defense this year. What can the Rams do well? They can throw it around. We know the Rams have a great coaching staff on the offensive side, and they should put their playmakers in good spots to succeed in this game. Cooper Kupp is questionable for this game, but even if he doesn't play Nacua to have a big game here. The Eagles secondary has been bitten by the big play all year.

The Rams are one spot in front of the Eagles on defense in yards per play allowed (16th and 17th). The overall stats for these two don't look all that different so far this year. Getting this many points in a home game, I'll back the Rams.

Take Los Angeles. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense is solid in all areas. They are coached by a defensive minded coach, and they do a good job of minimizing big plays allowed. On the other side, New Orleans has a weak offense. The Saints are averaging just 4.4 yards per play (29th in the NFL). 

If you took under 40 (a very low total in today's NFL) in the last 10 games involving the New Orleans, you would be a perfect 10-0. The Saints have yet to have a game finish with a combined score higher than 37 this year. They have scored 17 points or fewer in three of their four contests.

The New England Patriots are clearly a bottom eight offense in the NFL. They don't have the game breakers to threaten strong defenses. New England is still a well coached defense, and I would expect the Pats to be far more ready to play after being embarrassed last weekend by Dallas.

The weather here is a factor too. Sustained winds of about 17 mph with gusts to 27 mph during this game are a help for the defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears defense is awful. They aren't good even when they have a healthy secondary, and now they have a banged up secondary and have the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bears are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Chicago has looked better on offense the last couple weeks. The Bears are a middle of the road offense and the worst or second worst defense in the NFL. I see Chicago as an over team right now. 

Washington has topped 30 points in two of their four games. The Commanders do have enough skill position talent to break some big gainers, especially against a very weak Chicago defense.

Chicago's games have finished with 51, 44, 51, and 59 points. 

I think this total is a little too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is a really underrated unit right now. Chris Jones makes a huge difference back in the fold. He was able to sit a lot of last week's game because the score got out of control right away against the Bears. He was limited in practice this week, but is expected to be ready to go here. Kansas City has an above average pass rush, and the Jets pass blocking is very weak. 

Zach Wilson is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL (maybe the worst). He is playing behind a bad offensive line, and he's going to have a lot of pressure in this one.

The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company ready to go against a solid Jets defense. Andy Reid has lots of great offensive weapons at his disposal, and I don't think the Jets have an answer for stopping Kelce in the middle of the field. 

Wilson is 10-14 ATS as a starter in the NFL, and he has failed to cover in five straight games. The Chiefs are really tough to shut down. How many can we expect the Jets to score here? Not very many in my opinion.

Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star Play on Bills* The Miami Dolphins put up 70 points last week, and the Miami offense is tremendous. I think this is a good spot to go against them though. 

Miami's defense is still the weakest unit in this game. The Dolphins gave up 34 points in the only game they played a good offense so far this year. Buffalo's offense will test them in a big way. 

Buffalo played a poor first game, but they have bounced back very nicely since. Buffalo is still one of the teams in the NFL that has the highest upside. The Bills know they need this game with their strong home field advantage.

The Dolphins are a good team, but I'm selling high on them in this spot. 

It sounds like Damar Hamlin might take the field in this one, and that is a big emotional boost for the home team.

Take Buffalo. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bengals and Titans have played twice in the last couple seasons. The final scores of those two games were 19-16 (in overtime) and 20-16. This total is set low for a reason. 

Joe Burrow is a great quarterback when healthy. He is clearly not healthy right now. He's a battler and he'll do his best to help his team win, but it is tough for him to throw the ball down the field right now. The Bengals offense has a much harder time breaking big gainers in its current state. 

Cincinnati's offensive line isn't very good still, and the Titans have been shutting down the run game all year. Joe Mixon isn't likely to be very efficient here. 

The Bengals defensive line dominated the Rams offensive line on Monday night. The Titans offensive line is a major weakness. I think Cincinnati will get in the backfield early and often here. 

Tennessee wants to turn every game into a low scoring rock right. The Bengals are far more prone to that kind of game with Burrow playing severely hampered. Both teams have played at a slower than average pace this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much improved. Many still think of KC as a team that has to win shootouts, but that is no longer true. The Chiefs are 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. They have faced a good Detroit offense and that was without star Chris Jones. They then took on a talented Jacksonville offense and did a great job holding them to 271 yards and 9 points. 

The Chicago Bears are 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Justin Fields hasn't looked good at all, and the KC defensive line is likely to be far too much for this Bears offensive line.

The Kansas City offense isn't quite clicking on all cylinders yet and they do still have some injuries.  

There is a very strong system that backs the under here. Andy Reid at home as a big favorite has been a great under bet. Why? Reid is well known for when his team gets the lead by margin he takes his foot off the gas and doesn't use his best plays. 

Reid's teams at home favored by 7.5 points or more- the under is a whopping 39-16-3 since 2004. The average margin of is nearly 6 points to the under. In this situation when it is a non-divisional game the under is 28-9 in the last 37.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins have been the best offense in the NFL so far, and it hasn't been close. Miami is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play on the season. They put up 6.4 YPP on a strong New England defense. 

The Denver defense has regressed in a big way this year. Denver also will be without safety Justin Simmons who is a key loss against Tua and this Miami passing attack.

Jaylen Waddle is questionable here. He did practice on Friday which is a good sign. It's a big bonus if he can play in this one.

The Denver offense has been tremendous early in games with their scripted drives. Payton is clearly a big help to Russell Wilson and this offense in general. Denver has more big play ability, and they have picked up their tempo.

I don't think the books have adjusted Denver enough based on their improvement on offense and decline on defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a tremendous over team on their home turf of late. Jared Goff is a quarterback who is hurt by poor weather conditions more than most in the NFL. Goff has no concerns to worry about on the fast track at Ford Field. Goff also has a really nice cast around him now in Detroit. St. Brown is expected to play in this one and he is an elite WR. I like Gibbs getting most of the carries in the backfield here, because I view him as the more dynamic running back for the Lions. Laporta is fitting in nicely at tight end too.

The Atlanta Falcons have a superstar in the backfield now in Bijan Robinson. He is a game breaker and I expect him to have a big game against a Lions defense that is below average against the run. The Falcons have enough play makers on offense now to be a problem. Ridder is slowly getting better at QB. 

A low total considering the Lions on the fast track. Neither defense is elite and I'll side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys should be power rated as a top two or three team in the NFL right now. Dallas has upgraded on defense in the offseason. Gilmore is a big boost to a team who didn't have depth in the secondary. Dallas has one of the very best players in the NFL in Micah Parsons, and now they have no clear weakness on the defense.

The New York Jets are coming off one of the most emotional wins you will ever see in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers was hurt immediately in their Monday night contest against the Bills. It looked like they were done. Instead, the defense delivered a great performance and Zach Wilson did just enough for them to win in overtime. 

I don't think Dak Prescott will make as many mistakes as Josh Allen did in this one. The Dallas offense has all kinds of weapons, and Pollard getting more touches now is a good thing. 

The Jets defense is good, but I don't think they are good enough to hold down Dallas all game. The Jets are on short rest and off an emotional win. It's a tough spot for them.

Dallas is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 laying 7.5 points or more. 

Take Dallas. 

*3 Star Play on Giants* The Arizona Cardinals were able to stay within the spread against the Washington Commanders last week. Arizona did benefit from 3 Washington turnovers in that game. The Arizona offense led by Josh Dobbs at quarterback had just 3.6 yards per play. Dobbs threw the ball 30 times and had only 132 yards passing. This Arizona offense isn't good at all.

The New York Giants had things spiral out of control against a very good Dallas Cowboys team. The Giants have a lot more talent than the Cardinals, and I think the Giants have a coaching edge here too. The Giants are in a good bounce back spot. After being embarrassed in game one, they now play arguably the worst team in the NFL. 

The Giants appear to me to be a team that will struggle against the best teams in the league, but look good against the worst teams in the league. 

I think perception is too high on the Cardinals after their close loss in week one. I think perception is too low on the Giants after their big loss in week one.

Take New York. 

*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Baltimore Ravens are the most banged up team in the NFL at this point. Baltimore is without five starters for this game. J.K. Dobbins, Marlon Humphrey, Tyler Linderbaum, Ronnie Stanley, and Marcus Williams are all expected to miss this game. The two spots that are the biggest concern are the secondary and the offensive line. 

The Bengals have a team that can absolutely expose any secondary weaknesses to begin with, and the Ravens are missing two stars in the secondary. It will be hard to keep Chase, Higgins, and the rest of the Bengals pass catchers down in this one.

Cincinnati played terribly in week one. The Bengals were embarrassed by the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have had their number of late. Cleveland's elite defensive line really bothers the Bengals and Joe Burrow. Also, the weather wasn't a help for what the Bengals like to do. Burrow once again missed the preseason and a bunch of practice time leading up to the season.

The Bengals are absolutely one of the most talented teams in the NFL. They are far healthier than the Ravens. They are laying a field goal at home against a Baltimore team that is trying to run a new offense and is without two good offensive linemen. The Bengals defensive line (especially DJ Reader) could cause a lot of trouble in this game. 

It's a get right spot for Burrow and the Bengals. 

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles travel to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday. Philadelphia is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl. New England's defense was still excellent last year, but their offense wasn't good. 

I don't see much to make me think the Patriots offense has gotten much better this year either. New England still doesn't have a good quarterback, and they are still short on weapons on the outside as well. 

Philadelphia is loaded defensively, and the Eagles defensive line is going to cause major problems for the Patriots in this one.

Bill Belichick is a defensive minded coach, and his defenses have been very ready for the start of the season the last few years. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 season openers. The average margin of those unders is a whopping 11 points. I think they'll have a good game plan for this one too.

There is a little rain in the forecast here with a slight wind too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers played extremely well in the preseason. I fully understand the preseason is a different animal, but Mike Tomlin's team developed some great habits in the preseason. 

Pittsburgh has made a habit of covering as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 51-27 ATS in their last 78 games as an underdog with Mike Tomlin as their coach. They are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 as a home underdog. Pittsburgh has an average ATS margin of +6.04 points in those 19 games as a home underdog. They are in that role here in week one, and I like the spot for them.

The Steelers have an elite defensive line when healthy, and to start this season they are healthy. The 49ers have several key players banged up heading into this one.  George Kittle and Nick Bosa are both banged up. One or both of them might play here but they are both less than 100% healthy.

Kyle Shanahan's teams are 1-5 ATS in Week One of the season. The 49ers are a good team, but they haven't been ready in week one. I think the Steelers will be in this situation.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Minnesota Vikings were 11-0 in one score games last year. Minnesota finished 27th in DVOA and had a negative point differential last year, but they won 13 games. Obviously, the Vikings weren't as good as their record would indicate. 

Minnesota has too many weaknesses on defense. The Vikings linebackers and secondary are definitely below average. Though Tom Brady is gone, the Bucs do have plenty of weapons in the passing attack to make Minnesota pay for these weaknesses. Baker Mayfield played well in the preseason. The trio of Evans, Godwin, and Gage is a very solid one for Tampa Bay. 

Tampa Bay clearly has the defensive edge in this one. The Bucs have Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Shaq Barrett in the front seven. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Carlton Davis are strong in the secondary too. 

Minnesota has a good passing attack, but the run game is weak. I think the Vikings will get too one dimensional here.

Underdogs have cashed in at a high rate in week one in the last decade. 

Take Tampa Bay. 

*2 Star Play on Eagles ML* The Philadelphia Eagles have been a very complete team all year. They lead the league in sacks with 77. It is the best pass rush in the NFL. The Eagles also have the best offensive line in the NFL. If you are this good in the trenches, you are a very tough out. 

Philadelphia should be able to run the football in a way that the Jaguars and Bengals weren't able to against this Chiefs defensive front. Kansas City is a below average run defense, and I think that will really hurt them in this game. The Eagles have a great runner in Jalen Hurts and three great options at running back as well. 

Kansas City is a very good team, but they come into this game pretty banged up. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, but his weapons aren't nearly as good now as they were in previous years or even at the start of the season. The Chiefs running backs are poor in pass protection and that could come back to bite them in this one. 

I think the Eagles are the more complete team.

Take Philadelphia on the moneyline at the short price. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have made it to the NFC Championship Game with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy leading the way. It certainly doesn't hurt to have the weapons he has around him, but Purdy has done a good job. My concern with Purdy is he has played some very weak defenses up until last week against Dallas. The Cowboys made him look very shaky. The Eagles have 70 sacks this year, and they are going to bring a lot of pressure. Can Purdy handle it here? I would expect Kyle Shanahan to have a fairly conservative game plan on offense here. We've seen the 49ers run the football a bunch in the past, and they may well do it again here. 

I'm not sure if Jalen Hurts is 100 percent healthy yet. He is very good even at less than 100 percent, but the 49ers have the front seven to make him uncomfortable in the backfield. Nick Bosa is an absolute beast, and the rest of the defensive line is great as well. The Eagles did allow 44 sacks this year.

The 49ers have the slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. If they are running the ball a lot here the drives could take up a bunch of time. Both of these defenses have been pretty good at not giving up the big play.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games. Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals have been underrated by the oddsmakers for a good while.

The Bengals have a superstar quarterback in Joe Burrow. He's a fantastic leader who stays calm at all times. He throws such an accurate football. He has elite weapons in Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Hurst. The Bills secondary is their biggest weakness. I expect the Bengals to hit some big plays in the passing game here. 

Buffalo is a really good team, but they have struggled with turnovers. Josh Allen has fumbled a bunch and thrown some key interceptions through the year. This Bengals defense is underrated by many. They have a lot of ballhawks on the unit. DJ Reader is an elite run stuffer. Logan Wilson is an excellent linebacker. The pass rush led by Hendrickson and Hubbard should do some damage too.

The concern is certainly the Bengals offensive line, which is badly shorthanded here. I do expect the Bills pass rush to get to Burrow through this game. Still, this line has gone from -3.5 to -6. The Bengals were playing very well against the Bills in the first game when it was stopped. I think this is too many points for a very solid Bengals team.

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks in Santa Clara on Saturday afternoon. You don't often think of weather issues in games in California, but the weather is very weird in the San Francisco area right now.

There are major rainstorms in the area and that has caused massive flooding already. The weather for Saturday calls for rain and winds of 13 mph with gusts of 25-28 mph. This field surfae is considered a slow field (a plus for unders) and now it should be very wet. The wind is a big boost as well.

Seattle's offense hasn't been very good down the stretch. As good as Geno Smith was early in the year, he really struggled late in the season.

San Francisco's defense is one of the top three defenses in the NFL. The 49ers offense has been good under Purdy, but their point totals have been inflated due to great field position and defensive touchdowns.

Both of the regular season meetings finished with a total of 34 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on LA Rams* The Seattle Seahawks haven't been playing very well at the end of the season. The Seattle offense has slowed down a lot in recent weeks. Geno Smith started the year on fire, but Smith has been struggling a lot in recent weeks. 

Seattle had a lot of trouble with Los Angeles a few weeks when Wolford started for the Rams. Baker Mayfield isn't good, but he is better than Wolford. Also, Mayfield hits his running backs and tight ends a lot and that is an area where the Seattle defense has struggled a lot this year. 

Cam Akers is running the ball much better of late. The Seahawks are a bottom ten run defense in the NFL. The weather in this game looks questionable, and I think Akers could have a solid game here. 

The Seahawks are a flawed team, and I think they are laying too many points here against an NFC West foe.

Take the Rams. 

*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers are fighting hard to finish above .500. Mike Tomlin has never had a record worse than .500, and they need to win the last two games to keep that amazing streak going. Pittsburgh has been fighting hard, and playing much better football of late.

The first meeting between these two Pittsburgh clearly outplayed Baltimore, but lost by 2 because of three turnovers. That was Mitch Trubisky, but it will be Kenny Pickett in this one. 

Tyler Huntley should be the starter for the Ravens here. Huntley isn't a dynamic quarterback, and the Ravens are really lacking big playmakers on offense. 

Mike Tomlin is a stunning 50-27 ATS in his last 77 games as an underdog. He is 20-8 ATS as an underdog vs. AFC North competition. 

The games between these two teams have come right down to the wire in low scoring games consistently. This should be the same, but I like the Steelers chances of pulling the small upset here.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. Detroit has allowed 6.3 yards per play on the season. For a while many people thought the Lions defense was improving a lot, but now in their last three games they have allowed 7.0 yards per play. The Lions are a very weak defense.

The Chicago Bears traded away some of their best defenders earlier in the year. Chicago's defense actually ranks dead last in Total EPA on the season now. They rank third worst in yards per play allowed for the season as well as in their last three games. 

This might be the two worst defenses in the NFL up against each other.

The Lions have been an offensive juggernaut at home this year, and this Bears defense is the worst defense they have played at home. 

Chicago's Justin Fields has been playing well. He has the ability to extend plays and be a major force with his legs. 

This game is played in a dome on a fast track. I like the offenses to have a big day.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Malik Willis gets the start here for the Tennessee Titans. He started the first matchup between these two. That game finished 17-10. The Titans ran the ball 45 times that game. Malik Willis threw the ball only 10 times for a total of 55 yards.

The Titans play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. With Willis under center the Titans play calling will be ultra conservative. Derrick Henry has had success against the Texans, and he likely will here again. Still, these should be long drives that take a lot of time off the clock.

The Texans offense had a measly 161 yards of offense in the first meeting between these two. Houston has been really bad on offense away from home. 

This game has 13 mph winds with gusts of 21 mph in the forecast. That could be a small bonus too.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* It is Desmond Ridder against Tyler Huntley in this matchup. The Falcons play calling has been really conservative all year, and that isn't going to change with Ridder at quarterback. 

Atlanta wants to run the football, but Baltimore has a top five run defense in the NFL. The Falcons are 26th out of 32 teams in the NFL in tempo as well. 

The Ravens coaching staff took a lot of heat for how many times they threw the ball last week. I would expect a lot more running int his one. Huntley is only mediocre as a quarterback, and this Ravens offense is not explosive right now.

The weather is a bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts of 25 mph throughout the game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The New York Giants defense ranks 28th in yards per play allowed. These two bad defenses square off in a game played in a dome this weekend. 

The Giants certainly aren't a great offense, but the Vikings have had a way of making bad offenses look good. The Vikings have allowed 26 against the Patriots, 36 against the Colts, and 26 against the Cardinals. 

The Vikings offense is dangerous. Kirk Cousins is surrounded by great skill position talent. I don't think the Giants have anyone to slow Jefferson here. 

Look for this game to be back and forth at least for a while.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans want to run the football. There are a lot of really good rushing defenses in the NFL. The LA Chargers are not one of those. LA is in fact the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Derrick Henry and company should have success on the ground against the Chargers.

The LA Chargers offense is completely different with Mike Williams on the outside to help Justin Herbert stretch the field. The Chargers play at the second fastest tempo in the league, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here. The Titans defense is badly banged up, and Tennessee is second last in the NFL in yards per play at 6.2 YPP allowed in their last three games. The Titans have allowed 71 points in their last two games.

This is a fairly low total where both teams have clear offensive advantages. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in tempo. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9th in the NFL in tempo. There should be more possessions in this game than an average NFL game.

The Dallas Cowboys offense is no question a top ten offense in the NFL now that they are much healthier. Dallas has a good balanced attack, so they can beat you in many different ways. Dallas has put up an average of 37.25 points per game in their last four games. 

Jacksonville's offense has been much better of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing really well right now. The Jaguars offensive line has improved, and the Jaguars have some solid weapons around Lawrence. 

The Jacksonville defense is a bottom ten defense in the NFL. While the Jags offense has improved of late, the defense really hasn't.

The Dallas Cowboys secondary has cluster injuries right now and Jacksonville should be able to attack them through the air.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense ranks second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. Overall for the season, they rank eighth in yards per play allowed. This is a very solid unit, which is playing its best football of the season of late. 

The Miami Dolphins offense is looking very shaky right now. Miami was very fortunate to even put up 17 points on the Chargers last week. The one touchdown was just a busted play turned into a touchdown by Tyreek Hill and his wheels. Hill is questionable for this game though. 

Buffalo's Josh Allen hasn't played nearly as well since his arm injury. I think it is bothering him more than he is admitting at this point. His numbers have been ordinary in the last few weeks. The Bills offense is still good, but they aren't the dominant offense they looked like early in the season.

The conditions for this game favor an under. There is snow in the forecast for throughout the game and winds of about 15 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That is a clear positive for the under. Tua doesn't have a strong arm and the Dolphins aren't a good running team. Buffalo will likely be more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The number here has already moved down a few points, and I think it should move more to the downside. First, Tyler Huntley got a concussion in the Steelers contest on Sunday. Huntley is an above average backup. He is unlikely to be cleared by Saturday for this Browns contest. If not, John Harbaugh made it sound like it would be Anthony Brown starting this game. It seems like Lamar Jackson will be out for this game as well.

The second key reason the total is dropping here is the weather report in Cleveland on Saturday. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph or so. That is enough to impact the game in a big way. 

Deshaun Watson doesn't look very sure of himself in his first two games. He looks uncomfortable and like he needs more time to get reps in this offense. 

The Ravens defense has gotten much better through the year. The Browns defense played pretty well against the Bengals as well. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Giants defense has been keeping them in games even when the offense has been really weak. The Eagles defense now ranks first in the NFL for the season in yards per play allowed. 

This is a late season divisional matchup. Those have been great for under bettors through the years. Between games 10 and 16 of the season, divisional totals set at 43 points or higher have gone under at a 58.1% clip since 2004. The sample size there is more than 550 games. 

The weather here could play a role as well. The weather calls for 10 mph winds and rain that could even mix with a little bit of snow during this game. Those are positives for the under.

I expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit here and I think the defenses will do a solid job not giving up the big plays.

The under is a perfect 14-0 in the Giants last 14 as a home underdog.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home. Detroit's home games have gone over this total six times, while only one game has gone under this total. The Lions have scored 35 points or more in four of their home games this year. They are back at home against a Minnesota defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL in many categories. 

Minnesota still has the most dominant receiver in the NFL. Detroit is really weak in the secondary. Good passing teams have taken advantage of the Lions on a consistent basis. Kirk Cousins is at least an average quarterback, and in these conditions he has been good through the years.

These two teams rank 7th and 8th in pace of play in the NFL.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens are clearly a different team on offense with Tyler Huntley at quarterback than Lamar Jackson. The loss of the big play ability is a big hindrance to the offense. Huntley is a decent backup, but the Ravens lack star power at the rest of the skill positions and I would expect their offensive game plan to be fairly conservative here.

Baltimore's defense has gotten quite a bit better of late. The Ravens picked up Roquan Smith, and he has been their best defensive player. Combining him with Patrick Queen is a dangerous tandem. 

Two of the Ravens last three games have finished at 16 and 19 total points.

Pittsburgh has seen two of their last four games finish under this very low posted total. This is a divisional rivalry where points have been at a premium in the long term. Pittsburgh is healthier on defense now, and the Steelers lack big play ability on offense too. Their run game is very inefficient and that puts too much pressure on Pickett.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of reasons to need to win this game. Seattle is 6-5 and still in the thick of the playoff race, but their losses to the Bucs and Raiders in their last two games have really hurt them. Seattle is in major need of a bounce back win.

The LA Rams won the Super Bowl last year, but this team has been a dumpster fire this year. Injuries are certainly one of the main reasons. They will be without Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald for this game. Their offensive line is in shambles as well. John Wolford will start for the Rams here, and Bryce Perkins may play as well. 

Seattle's defense can be beaten, but this Rams offense hasn't been able to do anything against anyone of late. 

Seattle's offense has plenty of healthy weapons for Geno Smith. Smith has been fantastic this year, and without Donald on the line Smith should get a lot more time to throw in this one.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play on Titans* The Tennessee Titans should be a tough matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have a bottom ten run defense in the league. The Titans are going to run the football early and often with Derrick Henry and their strong offensive line.

Tennessee is coming off a tough loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. I really like Mike Vrabel's team as both a road underdog and coming off a loss. Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He gets his team to play hard at all times.

The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 coming off a loss.

The Philadelphia Eagles are a good team, but they haven't been playing as well lately as they did earlier in the year. Philadelphia is a run heavy team, and the Titans run defense is top five in the NFL.

I expect this to be a tight game all the way down to the wire, so I'll grab the points.

Take Tennessee. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have the worst defense in the NFL. They also have a very good offense when Jared Goff and company are in a dome on a fast track, like they are on their home field. 

Detroit's home games have finished with this many total points: 73, 63, 93, 58, 24, and 53. That's an average of 60.67 points scored per game in the Lions home games this year. 

Jared Goff has plenty of weapons around him to start with, and now Jameson Williams makes his debut. Williams is a supremely talented guy who will help this offense a lot. 

Jacksonville's offense has started clicking of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football as a pro right now. He'll go up against that worst defense in the NFL in perfect conditions. I don't see any reason to expect Detroit's defense to have much success here.

Jerome Boger's crew is the ref crew for this game. Boger is a great over ref. His crew is well known for a lot of defensive holding and pass interference penalties. The over is 124-94 in Boger's games. That's a 57% over rate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bryce Perkins gets the start here for the LA Rams. Perkins is the third string quarterback for the Rams and he is in a really tough spot here. Without Cooper Kupp on the outside, Perkins isn't exactly surrounded by great weapons. The Rams will want to run the football here, but the Chiefs have quietly been solid against the run this year.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could probably score quite a few points here, but I'm not sure they will keep their foot on the gas here. Andy Reid's teams have historically constantly been quick to let up and run the clock when they are a big favorite. They are more than a 2 TD favorite here. Kansas City will run the ball more than normal here too. That helps the Rams who do have a top ten run defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I think Jimmy G is an underrated quarterback on the whole, and he is surrounded by some of the best weapons in the NFL. When you have guys like Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey around you it is going to be a lot of fun. The Saints defense has had a couple good games, but overall they have been a big disappointment. The Saints aren't the same without Lattimore in the secondary either. They'll miss him badly in this one. 

The Saints have been moving the ball well, and the Saints are more than capable of pick 6's with Dalton at quarterback against a defense that takes chances. At the same time, the Saints receivers are good and I think they can create some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers offense has been badly shorthanded most of the year. Justin Herbert now has his weapons back at wide receiver and that should make this passing attack be much better the rest of the way. Herbert is still a really good quarterback, and the Chargers play at a quick pace. They are up against a very weak Cardinals secondary. I expect the Chargers to get a lot of big plays here. The Cardinals defense didn't look interested late against the 49ers in their most recent game.

Kyler Murray comes back for the Cardinals here, and that is a clear help to the over. With DeAndre Hopkins this Cardinals offense and Murray this offense has big play potential. The Chargers are allowing nearly 26 points per game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Bills* The Buffalo Bills have looked like the best team in the NFL when they are focused and playing at their best. They have had several games in a row where they played weaker games than normal. Now, the Bills are in a prime spot here with all eyes on them for the Thanksgiving spotlight game against the Lions.

Detroit comes into this game winners of its last three games. The Lions really aren't a good team though. Detroit has the worst defense in the NFL on a yards per play allowed basis. The Bills have too many weapons for the Lions to slow them down. 

Detroit has consistently been very weak in these Thanksgiving contests. Buffalo played in Detroit last weekend which might be a small positive as well.

Take the Bills. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys will square off in a big game in Minnesota on Sunday. 

Minnesota's offense has big play potential with Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins on the whole is a pretty solid quarterback too. Dalvin Cook just ran for 8.5 ypc against the Bills who are a solid defense. Cook has game breaking speed and is capable of busting a big one at any time.

The Dallas offense has put up well north of 400 yards in back to back games. With Dak Prescott back, this becomes one of the better offenses in the NFL again. Tony Pollard is a big play running back too. 

This one should be tight all the way and overtime is a possibility as well. Being played in the dome the conditions are ripe for scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears have become a great over team of late. The Bears have scored 29 points or more in four straight games. They have also allowed 119 points in those four games. That is 29.75 points per game allowed. 

This isn't the Chicago Bears from a few years ago. The Bears had previously been one of the better defenses in the NFL and one of the worst offenses in the NFL. That no longer is the case. The Bears defense is much weaker now. They traded away top talent and some of the other guys are past their prime. 

The Bears coaching staff has found a way to game plan to Justin Fields' strengths and that has made a huge difference. Fields is looking like a dangerous weapon especially with his legs.

Atlanta's defense is second worst in the NFL in yards per play. A.J. Terrell might be back for this one, but even he hasn't been good this year. The Falcons secondary is still very shorthanded. On offense, the Atlanta running attack is likely to work better against the Bears than it has against recent opponents. 

This one being played on a fast track in a dome is helpful for points too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast for this game has gotten increasingly bad. The sustained winds now are expected to be at about 20 mph in this game. The wind gusts are expected to reach 35-40 mph. 

The Patriots have an argument for the best defense in the NFL. New England doesn't give up big plays, and I trust them to slow down the Jets offense especially now that Breece Hall is injured. Wilson is one of the worst QB's in the NFL right now.

The Jets defense has been sneaky good this year. This is a tough group that doesn't let opponents get anything easily. The run defense is very underrated. 

The play calling here should get even more run heavy with this kind of weather. I expect a lot of moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Stafford is likely to be out with a concussion here. It was said that it will take a stunning turn for him to start in this one. John Wolford would get the start. The Rams offense gets ultra conservative with Wolford at quarterback. With Stafford in the lineup, the Rams are dead last in yards per play in the NFL. Wolford isn't an upgrade. 

Kyler Murray is considered doubtful by many here. He might play, but he is less than 100%- and he would likely take quite a few shots from this strong Rams defensive line if he plays. Colt McCoy is a solid backup, but the Cardinals do have a different and slightly more conservative game plan with him in the lineup too.

The Cardinals defense has given up some big plays this year, but the Rams aren't the team to expose that right now. The Rams are a top 10 defense and their defensive line should get in the backfield here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers have won five straight games coming out of a bye week. They had a bye week and got healthier for this game. TJ Watt is back in the lineup, and that completely changes their defense. The Saints offensive line is weaker than an average lineup, and Dalton hasn't been good under pressure.

Mike Tomlin has been fantastic as an underdog in his career. He is 9-0 ATS in his last 9 games as a home underdog. The Steelers come in off extra rest and I think this is a good spot to buy low on them. 

The Steelers are 39-16-1 ATS as an underdog from week five onward under Tomlin 

New Orleans has had turnover problems with Dalton in recent games. The Saints are also badly banged up right now. They are without Marson Lattimore (their best corner), Pete Werner, and two starting offensive linemen in this one.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Over* Don't look now, but the Chicago Bears offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Chicago has put up 33, 29, and 32 points in their last three games. The Bears are starting to utilize Justin Fields in a much better way. Fields has amazing ability to keep plays alive and use his legs to create. 

The Bears traded away their best defensive player, and they have been banged up on defense with the guys who are left also. In their last two games they have given 49 and 35 points. The Lions aren't likely to score that many, but I think Detroit will get plenty of yards and points here.

The Lions defense is a bottom three defense in the NFL. Detroit even allowed nearly 400 yards against the Packers offense last week. Green Bay struggled badly in the red zone, and Rodgers had some bad turnovers. 

Jared Goff has enough weapons around him now with Swift, Williams, and St. Brown being back on the field. Look for them to be able to pick up some chunk plays on this Bears defense.

Both teams are playing at a faster than league average pace.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have played at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL so far this year. The Chargers are also dead last in run defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry on the season. That's important here since Atlanta runs the ball so often and is a team with explosiveness in the run game.

Atlanta's secondary is a mess right now. Heyward on injured reserve is crucial since he is their best corner. Terrell might come back here, but he has graded out very poorly this season. The team is extremely thin in the secondary. The Chargers are starting to get slightly healthier in the passing game too.

The Chargers have had 3 of their last 4 games finish at 58 points or higher. Atlanta has had their last two games go to 52 points (45 in the first half against the Bengals) and 71 points (against the Panthers who are weak offensively).

I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense has been underrated by nearly everyone. Buffalo of course has a strong offense, but the defense has been the better unit so far this year. Buffalo hasn't allowed more than 21 points in a game this year. Buffalo is giving up an average of just 14.0 points per game. 

Wilson and the Jets aren't an offense I trust against anyone right now. Wilson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and he doesn't even have his security blanket in Breece Hall anymore. Hall going down with an injury was a massive loss for this Jets offense. The Jets have scored just 16 and 17 points in their last two games. 

The weather calls for a little wind here (10-15 mph). Divisional unders with wind of 10 mph or more have gone 57% to the under in the last 15 years. This one fits the system.

I don't see the Jets scoring much here, but the Jets defense has played pretty well this year. Gardner is a tremendous addition in the secondary.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have cluster injuries in the secondary. Awuzie is the leader of the secondary and him being out for the year is a massive loss for this Bengals team. Now Mike Hilton is also out with an injury. Backup cornerback Tre Flowers is doubtful since he missed all week of practice (he could still play). The Bengals are even activating a practice squad cornerback for this game. 

PJ Walker has looked much better the last couple games. DJ Moore is an elite receiver and I expect him to get open deep multiple times against this Bengals secondary. The Bengals pass rush is also subpar, so I think Walker has some time to throw here.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should look much better than it did last game in Cleveland. Even without Chase, the Bengals have plenty of weapons on offense to be solid. The Panthers pass rush isn't as good as the Browns either. Look for Burrow to have a bounce back game here and hit some big gainers. I still view Burrow as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If he is given some time here, he can get it done.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears. New England has a lot of weaknesses, but they still have a superb head coach steering the ship. I expect a bounce back performance from New England here. This is still the same team that blanked the Lions and blew out the Browns on the road.

The New York Jets are having a nice season, but they are starting to become overvalued. Zach Wilson is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. He makes far too many mistakes and he isn't always going to get away with those. The Jets have pieces to be dangerous, but they also have glaring weaknesses. 

This is a great spot to back the Patriots coming off a bad loss, and fade the Jets after they are feeling awfully good about themselves.

Take New England. 

*3 Star Play on Cardinals* The Minnesota Vikings have made nearly every single game come right down to the wire both last year and this year. 

Minnesota has a great record, but taking a closer look at the team you can see that the Vikings have clear weaknesses. Kirk Cousins hasn't played very well this year. He is really bothered by pressure up the middle. The Cardinals have a great pass rush and they aren't afraid to blitz. I think Cousins will struggle throwing into the blitz here. 

Arizona's offense is completely different with Hopkins on the outside. Kyler Murray doesn't even look like the same quarterback with Hopkins off the field, but he is back now and this Minnesota defense is a bottom three or four secondary. I think this is a good shot for Murray to have a nice game.

The Vikings needed a miracle comeback at home against the Lions. They had a very misleading win in Miami against a third string QB. 

I see this one staying very close and I'll grab the points.

Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense was supposed to be a high quality defense this year. That hasn't turned out to be the case. Marshon Lattimore's absence badly hurts a thin secondary, and many teams have taken advantage of this weakness. The Raiders have the guys to take advantage too. Davante Adams is expected to play here after missing some time this week due to an illness. Waller is questionable, but the Raiders do have good secondary options and I think Carr is a bit underrated by many people.

The Saints offense has been clicking very nicely of late. New Orleans has scored 25 points or more in four straight games. The Raiders rank 22nd in defensive grade at PFF (the Saints are 21st). Andy Dalton has been slinging it around nicely. Dalton is capable of big plays both ways.

This game is played on a fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled badly against the Denver Broncos last game, but the Broncos defense is excellent. The Chargers have a lot of injuries and that has led to them being weaker than expected. Still, this is a team with good skill position talent and they play very quickly. In neutral play situations, the Chargers are first in the NFL in tempo.

The Seattle Seahawks defense looked good last weekend against Arizona. I'm still not convinced they are a good defense though. For the season overall, Seattle is 30th out of 32 teams in yards per play allowed. The Seahawks have given up 27 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

The LA Chargers defense is just 26th out of 32 teams in YPP allowed. Seattle's offense has been much better than expected with Geno Smith playing some excellent football at quarterback. He has good wide receivers and the Chargers secondary is below average. 

I think both teams do their fair share of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos might have the best defense in the NFL. It is certainly a top three defense in the NFL. Denver is giving up only 4.5 yards per play this season (2nd in the NFL). The Broncos are well balanced with a strong defensive line and a great secondary as well.

The New York Jets have a star rookie in Sauce Gardner. The Jets are a top 10 run defense in the NFL again this year too. 

Denver's offense has been an absolute mess. I don't see them fixing it right away. The Broncos have only seen one of their games so far this year go higher than 35 points total. Two of their games have gone into overtime too.

The weather forecast is key here as well. The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 38 mph during the game. There is a 30 percent chance of showers as well. This kind of weather makes both teams far more conservative. I expect a lot more running and less deep passes. That is a boost for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense finally got rolling last weekend in New Orleans. Joe Burrow threw for 300 yards and easily had his best game of the season thus far. Chase caught two touchdowns. Higgins practiced in full on Friday and probably will be back for the Bengals here.

The Atlanta Falcons already have a weak secondary, and now they are badly banged up in the secondary. Casey Hayward, their best corner, is on the injured list and will miss this game. Dee Alford was expected to step in and get playing time at corner, but he is now out with an injury too. AJ Terrell is playing through an injury as well, and his numbers this year have been very poor. The Bengals passing attack should have a lot of success in this game.

The Bengals defense started the season playing great, but injuries are really slowing them down of late. DJ Reader is a fantastic run stuffer and he is out. Logan Wilson is easily their best linebacker and he will miss this game too. Josh Toupou is out at DT as well. 

Atlanta is a very good running team and I think they will break some big gainers on the ground as New Orleans did last weekend against Cincinnati. 

This total has edged up, but it hasn't gone up enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks have been far better on offense than anyone expected they would be. Geno Smith's tremendous play at quarterback is a big reason for the success of the Seattle offense. Geno Smith grades out as the #1 quarterback in terms of PFF rating so far this year in the NFL. Of course he isn't the best QB in the league, but he is a lot better than expected. He has a very good group of wide receivers who should be able to get open against a questionable Arizona secondary. Seattle is second in the NFL in yards per play so far this year behind only the Buffalo Bills.

As good as the Seattle offense has been, the Seahawks defense is the worst in the NFL. Seattle is dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6. Arizona has struggled offensively in their last three games, but they have played three quality defenses. The Seattle defense is a much weaker unit. I expect Kyler Murray to have a good game in this one.

I expect both quarterbacks to have a big game against defenses who give up too many explosive plays.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Panthers* The Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule. According to many rumors, Rhule had lost the locker room in Carolina. The Panthers are a talented defense, and I think they could give the Rams quite a bit of trouble here. 

Teams who just fired their coach are 17-9 ATS in the last 26 in their first game following that firing. The Carolina Panthers are in this spot on Sunday.

The Los Angeles Rams are dead last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Their offensive line is banged up, and they are badly missing Andrew Whitworth after his retirement. Matt Stafford looks like he is playing through arm problems again as well. 

PJ Walker starts here for the Carolina Panthers. I'm not going to pretend I think Walker is a good NFL quarterback, but Baker Mayfield had been very bad as well. The Panthers should be able to run the ball some here on a mediocre run defense. 

The Rams aren't the same team that won it all at the end of last season. This line is too high.

Take Carolina. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts haven't had a game all season thus far with more than 41 total points. The first game between these two was 24-0 Jaguars. 

The Colts offense is a mess right now. The offensive line is very bad, injuries have magnified their weaknesses, and Matt Ryan playing behind a bad offensive line has been a mess. Jonathan Taylor is questionable for this game, and if he plays he won't be at full strength. The Jaguars defense is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

The Jaguars offense has looked bad the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been struggling with opposing defenses defending Trevor Lawrence with the two high safeties. Lawrence is making poor decisions and this offense has been very inefficient.  The Colts have been bad on offense, but their defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year.

I expect a tight lower scoring battle in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have a top three offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lit up what I still believe is a very good defense in Tampa Bay last weekend. They put up 41 points in that contest.

Kansas City has scored 32 points or more in each of their last five meetings with the Raiders. The Chiefs have far too many weapons for this bottom ten Raiders defense to slow them down consistently. 

The Raiders have a pretty good quarterback in Derek Carr and he now has a great receiver in Adams on the outside. Las Vegas has put up 396 and 385 yards in their last two games. The Raiders have a good offensive line and I like Josh Jacobs in the backfield as well. Kansas City's defense is no better than mediocre.

The weather conditions for this one are perfect. I would expect to see both teams moving the ball well in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys will have Cooper Rush at quarterback again here. Rush has done a good job at the helm. The team has been more cautious with their offense though. There have been a lot of shorter passes and more rushing plays than I would expect to see with Dak Prescott at quarterback. The Cowboys are relying too much on Lamb at wide receiver. That could be an issue as he lines up against an elite cornerback in this one.

The Cowboys defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in nearly every statistical category. The Rams offense ranks second last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily through the season. 

Tony Pollard is questionable for this game and he has played very well this year. The Cowboys offensive line is also badly banged up. The Rams lack secondary options for Cooper Kupp as well.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Dolphins* The New York Jets are coming off a comeback win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers led for much of the game, but the Jets came from behind to win late. The Jets were really handed that game by the Steelers 4 interceptions thrown. Pittsburgh isn't a very good team in their current state either.

The Dolphins were 3-0 going into last week and then lost at Cincinnati. The Bengals didn't outplay the Dolphins by that much, and it was really turnovers that stopped the Dolphins from having a shot at winning in that one.

Miami has Teddy Bridgewater going here. Is he really even a step down from Tua? Bridgewater is a top three backup quarterback in the NFL. He has Hill and Waddle to get the ball too and a pretty good offensive line in front of him. 

The Dolphins defense is ultra aggressive with their blitzing and the Jets offensive line is badly banged up right now. 

The Jets can slow down the run, but their secondary is a problem area. I don't see them stopping Miami enough here.

Miami had extra time to prepare for this game off that Thursday contest against Cincinnati. A good bounce back spot.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders put up 28 and 27 points on the Jaguars and Lions in the first couple weeks of the year. They have put up only 8 and 10 points against the Eagles and the Cowboys the last couple weeks. 

Washington's Carson Wentz has good enough pass catchers in McLaurin and Samuel and the rest of the group to do some damage against a Titans secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL. Washington's numbers from the last two weeks mean little since both the Eagles and the Cowboys defenses are very strong. The Titans gave up 21 points even against a weak Giants offense and they allowed 5.8 ypp against the Colts and 6.1 ypp against the Raiders. 

The Titans offense does a good job on scripted drives because they are well coached. That should led to early points here against a Washington defense that I believe isn't very well coached. Ryan Tannehill doesn't have the weapons he has had in recent seasons, but he still has enough. 

The Titans linebacker unit has been hit with a rash of injuries that should slow the defense down some here.

The over is hitting at a clip of 59% dating back to 2004 in weeks 3 through 5 in the NFL when the total is 43 or lower and the wind is 7 mph or lower on average. The forecast calls for 7 mph here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs will get Mike Evans back here. Evans is a star receiver and him back in the lineup will help Tom Brady a bunch. Tampa Bay's offensive line is finally getting healthier as well. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are both leaning toward being able to play here but they will test things out in warmup before the game. They would be a big bonus for the offense as well.

Kansas City's offense is among the best in the league. They have been the most consistent offense in the NFL the last couple years. Tampa Bay's defense is good, but the Bucs haven't faced an offense nearly as good as this Chiefs offense. 

The Kansas City defense is still a weakness. The Chiefs give up too many big plays and their secondary isn't deep enough. Brady should have a better game here with improved health for the Tampa Bay offense.

A total of 45.5 is awfully low for these two quarterbacks with as many weapons around them as they have. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is an early season game being played in a dome. Early season (September and October games) contests with a spread of 7 points or less either way (this one fits) being played in a dome are 225-180 to the over (55.6% overs) since 2004.

Atlanta has scored 27, 27, and 26 points in their three games so far this season. The Falcons offense has been working very well with Marcus Mariota at the helm. I've been impressed with their play calling early in the season. 

Cleveland has scored 29, 26, and 30 points in their three games this year. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent at quarterback. The Browns have the best running back in the NFL in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is a great backup. The Browns offensive line should dominate on the line of scrimmage here. 

The Browns defense is badly banged up. Myles Garrett was in a car accident and is a game time decision. Clowney is also a game time decision. Denzel Ward will try to play, but is less than 100 percent. 

The Falcons defense has allowed 23 points or more in every game, and the Browns may be the best offense they have played yet (or the Rams who scored 31 points). 

I like both teams to score throughout this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Seattle Seahawks aren't a good team, but they have played better than expected so far this year. Detroit has played well so far this year, but the Lions are much more banged up than the Seahawks. 

Detroit will be without D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DJ Chark on offense. That gives Jared Goff far fewer top notch weapons to work with. Goff is a mediocre quarterback who can play pretty well with a lot of talent around him. He'll be short on that talent around him here.

Tracy Walker was arguably the Lions best defensive player and he is hurt now. The Lions defense has been really weak so far this year. They have allowed 26 points or more in all three of their contests. 

Geno Smith has been pretty good so far this year for Seattle. He isn't a really good QB by any means, but he has good receivers and this Lions secondary is weak.

This should be a close contest.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals started the season 0-2. They were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers at home after they finished -5 in turnover margin and missed an extra point and short field goal that would have won the game. The Bengals did win this past Sunday in New York against the Jets, but their backs are still against the wall in this one. The AFC North is a good division. The Bengals schedule gets brutal late in the season. They really cannot afford to fall to 1-3.

The Miami Dolphins are 3-0. They beat the New England Patriots in week one when the Pats had three turnovers to none for the Dolphins. In game two, they made a massive come from behind effort and beat Baltimore on the road 42-38. The Ravens had 8.8 yards per play, but failed to finish that game out. Last week, the Dolphins beat the Bills 21-19 in Miami. That game was played in 100 degree heat and the Dolphins defense was on the field for 90 plays. The Bills outgained the Dolphins by more than 2 to 1, and yet it was the Dolphins who edged out a misleading win. 

Miami is a good team, but this is a brutal spot for them. This game means a lot more to the Bengals, and the Bengals are the healthier team coming into this game. Tua is banged up (he will likely try to play), Xavien Howard and Jaylen Waddle are questionable, and the offensive line is banged up as well.

This is a white out game with the Bengals wearing their new white tiger helmets. Cincinnati's Paycor Stadium will be rocking here. I like the Bengals to be well prepared for this one.

Take Cincinnati. 

*4 Star Play on the 49ers* Trey Lance was a starter at the beginning of the season, but for him out with an injury, Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over under center. I consider Garoppolo an upgrade over Lance at this point in his career. The big news from San Francisco is George Kittle is expected to play in this one after being out with an injury. Kittle makes a massive difference in this 49ers offensive scheme.

Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett have had a very rough start to their time with the Denver Broncos. The Broncos offense has stalled out in the red zone time after time. Denver’s play calling on offense has left a lot to be desired. 

Kyle Shanahan is one of the better coaches in the NFL and I trust him to have his team ready for this Sunday night showdown. The 49ers well balanced offense has multiple running backs who can beat you with a big play at any time. The 49ers have far less question marks surrounding them at this point. 

Take San Francisco.

*3 Star Play on Cincinnati* The Cincinnati Bengals have started 0-2 and they have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL so far this season. Still, the Bengals have one of the most talented rosters in the league. They have faced two of the best pass rushing defenses in their first 2 games. In this game, they go against a bottom five pass rush in the NFL. 

The New York Jets are coming off a stunning win in Cleveland. The Jets trailed all the way until storming back to win thanks to an onside kick recovery in the final minute. Now the Jets are feeling good about themselves, but I still consider this one of the worst overall teams in the NFL. 

Situationally, this is a good spot for the Bengals. Cincinnati simply cannot afford to go 0-3 to start the season, and I would expect their best performance of the year so far. Joe Burrow has tremendous weapons on the outside and the Jets aren’t a good secondary. 

Take Cincinnati. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins showed their impressive fire power in their come from behind win over the Ravens last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa has two star receivers on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The new Dolphins offense scheme is allowing Tua to take more shots down the field. 

The Buffalo Bills offense has looked like a well oiled machine this season. Josh Allen is playing like a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. He has a good offensive line in front of him, and a group of excellent wide receivers. Buffalo is third in the NFL averaging 6.7 yards per play. 

While the Bills have a quality defense at full strength, they are expected to be without 4 starters on defense in this game. The Miami defense is aggressive, but that should also give Allen the chance to beat them with some explosive plays down field. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* This total is set very low, but it is set very low for good reasons. 

The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to do much of anything this year. Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati solely because they forced 5 turnovers. The Steelers couldn't get anything going against New England either. Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.3 yards per play on the season (30th out of 32 teams). 

Cleveland's offense has been pretty good, but they haven't played a good defense yet. The Browns are very limited in what they can do offensively with Brissett under center. Cleveland is a very good running team, but I think the Steelers will load up the box in this one.

A huge key to this game should be the weather. Cleveland is expected to have 18 mph sustained winds through this game, and wind gusts of 35 mph during the game are expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game. What does it lead to? It leads to both teams running the football more than normal and being more conservative in their play calling. That is certainly a help to the defenses. 

The Browns and Steelers have played many tight low scoring games against each other in the past. The weather adds in another big plus here. Both teams have weak quarterbacks and aren't very explosive on offense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Philadelphia Eagles might have the best offensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia is likely to be able to run on just about everyone this year. The Vikings defense looked very good in week one, but I think that was more about Green Bay being shorthanded and playing very poorly than anything else.

Jalen Hurts is a weapon at quarterback, and I expect him to have a big game here. He is backed by two really good running backs and is led by that great offensive line. 

The Eagles upgraded on defense with Jordan Davis and James Bradberry. I expect Davis to be a problem for the Vikings offensive line here.

Perception is awfully high of the Vikings after their blowout win in week one. I think they are a good team, but they aren't in the same talent class as the Eagles.

Look for the Eagles to make a statement at home here.

Take Philadelphia. 

*3 Star Play on Packers* The Chicago Bears averaged 3.6 yards per play last week. They were terrible in the first half, but they were able to come back and upset the San Francisco 49ers thanks to help from the weather conditions and a poor performance from Trey Lance. George Kittle was missing and that slowed the 49ers as well.

The Green Bay Packers were humbled by the Minnesota Vikings in game one. The Packers had a couple key drops that could have changed the game. Aaron Rodgers has absolutely owned the Chicago Bears. Rodgers has just one turnover in his last five games against the Bears. This is a Bears defense that is definitely weaker than it was a few years ago too. 

Rodgers should have Lazard back for this one, and the Dillon and Jones are both very good running backs. The Packers defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Who has a really weak offensive front? The Chicago Bears. Justin Fields should be under all sorts of pressure throughout this game.

Green Bay should bounce back nicely here in a big spot.

Take the Packers. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders offense upgraded in a big way in the offseason. Devante Adams is a top five receiver in the country. The Raiders now have Adams and Darren Waller as elite pass catching options for Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs is a very good all purpose running back. Carr is very capable and he should have a good season with the improved talent around him.

Arizona plays quickly and the Cardinals still have enough weapons to score plenty. Kyler Murray is a bit inconsistent, but running quarterbacks have hurt this Raiders defense in the past. Murray is well known for late scoring drives when the team is down, and they are a clear underdog here. 

Early season games played in a dome have been good overs in the past. Specifically, early season (September or October games) that are non-divisional and have a spread of 7 points or fewer are 56% to the over since 2004. This one fits that system. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Bucs have a top three defense in the NFL. In fact, it might be the best defense in the NFL. Tampa Bay should be able to get pressure in the backfield against a Saints offensive line that is a relative weakness this year. They won't have to deal with Alvin Kamara, who is expected to miss this game due to a rib injury.

The Saints have really slowed down Tom Brady and the Bucs well in the recent past. The Bucs aren't nearly as good on offense now as they were in those games either. It is still Brady and they'll bounce back some over time, but the Bucs offensive line is now a weakness. Godwin is out and just about every other pass catcher is at least banged up some here. 

Without Kamara, the Saints have a weak running back group, but they are likely to still want to run the ball quite a bit. Look for both defenses to come up with tackles for a loss in key parts of this contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense was a mess in the preseason. I know it is the preseason and you don't want to overreact, but I don't like the changes in the offensive coaching staff in the offseason. The Patriots offense has been having far too many miscommunications and big negative plays. This isn't a roster that is developed in a way to get big plays on third and long. They can't get behind the sticks on a consistent basis. Miami's pass rush is excellent, and I think the Dolphins get into the backfield a lot in this one.

The Miami Dolphins offense did add a major weapon in Hill in the offseason, but there are still many questions about this offense as well. How will Tua play under pressure against a good New England defense? Tua isn't a guy who likes to take a bunch of shots downfield either. The Patriots secondary is above average.

Both of these defenses are above average. Both offenses tend to stay away from taking big chances. I see a lot of moving clock and the defenses coming up with big stops here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens weren't healthy at all for most of last year. The team underachieved compared to expectations going into the season. I think that has a lot of people too low on them coming into this season. 

Lamar Jackson is one of a kind when it comes to playmakers in the NFL. Jackson should be highly motivated to prove himself for a new contract. He still has great tight ends and the offensive line is solid as well. They go against a Jets defense that is prone to giving up the big play. Jackson is about as good as it gets in the NFL when it comes to creating explosive plays.

The Baltimore defense should be much improved this year. The Ravens secondary is very deep and they aren't dealing with the injuries they had last season. The pass rush should also be an area of strength.

The Jets offense is led by Joe Flacco. His decision making is very weak, and he is clearly one of the worst signal callers in the league at this point in his career. He doesn't have many weapons around him, and he is capable of throwing a pick six at any time.

Take Baltimore here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have a lot more weapons to work with this year. Chris Olave is a great add on the outside. He's a reliable receiver who has both speed and great hands. Michael Thomas is questionable for this one, but beat writers say he is progressing toward probable for this one. Alvin Kamara is cleared to play and he's such a great threat in both the running and passing game. Jameis Winston is back and healthy, and he is a big upgrade in the passing game from what the Saints had late last year.

Atlanta's Marcus Mariota played well in the preseason. The Falcons offense was really crisp most of the time in the preseason. The Saints defense is likely being overrated by many. The safeties are down from a year ago even with Mathieu here. While the Saints defense was good a year ago, their overall numbers were also a bit skewed because of their slow ball control offense. The defense will give up more points this year.

This is an early season game played in a dome. The angle has been strong to the over especially with a close spread. When the home team is favored by less than 7 or is the underdog in September or October dome overs are at 56.2%. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense is back. Kansas City wasn't the offensive juggernaut everyone expected earlier this year, but they had a lot of new faces on the offensive line. They have gradually improved throughout the year. Also, Andy Reid is getting more aggressive with his play calling in the playoffs. It is working in a big way. Kansas City had 478 yards and 42 points against a decent Steelers defense. They then put up 42 points and 552 yards in an overtime win over the #1 ranked defense of the Buffalo Bills.

The Cincinnati Bengals have some excellent weapons on offense. Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is a star at quarterback. Burrow is an extremely accurate passer and a good decision maker. Surrounding him with Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah gives the Bengals excellent options on offense. As long as the offensive line can be decent, I think the Bengals can score quite a few points here.

These two teams met in Cincinnati last month. The Bengals won 34-31 as that game sailed over the total. The Bengals had 7.5 ypp and the Chiefs had 7.1 ypp. The offenses couldn't be stopped. 

The Bengals and Chiefs defenses are better than last season, but they aren't good enough to stop the opposing offenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is the time of the year that you always want to be careful about the weather, but the current forecast for this one is for a temperature in the 30's with winds of about 10 mph. 

The Buffalo Bills offense sputtered at times throughout the regular season, but they did have a bunch of success against the Chiefs earlier in the year. Josh Allen is playing well of late, and the Bills have too many weapons on the outside for the Chiefs secondary to contain. 

Kansas City's offense has improved late in the season. It's still very hard to stop Mahomes with Kelce, Hill, and the rest of their weapons. 

The last couple meetings between these two have gone over the total. I think we see a back and forth affair here. There is absolutely a chance for overtime in this one as well. 

The defenses are improved, but the offenses are still better.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play. They rank 6th in the NFL in DVOA on offense. Dak Prescott has been up and down this year, but he has a stellar group of receivers and two solid running backs. The 49ers secondary is arguably the worst secondary of any team in the NFL playoffs this year. Dallas should be able to take advantage of this unit.

San Francisco's offense has been good with Jimmy G under center this year. I think he is an underrated quarterback who does a good job spreading the ball around to his weapons. George Kittle is one of the most dangerous pass catchers in the NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have a hard time with him. 

Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in big plays allowed. 

This game is played in a dome and playoff games in a dome have been great for over bettors. How good? The last 43 games in a dome in the NFL postseason- 29 of them have gone over and only 14 have stayed under.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play on Dolphins* The New England Patriots want to win this game and stay on track for the playoffs, but the things they need to happen to jump in a big way in the standings are quite unlikely. 

Buffalo isn't likely at all to lose to the Jets. They are a 16.5 point favorite for a reason. A Kansas City or Tennessee loss could help them as well, but both of those teams are favored by double digits. 

The Patriots have far more injury concerns than do the Dolphins. New England has a long list of guys questionable for this game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Patriots rest some guys in the second half if the scenarios where they can move up aren't coming to fruition. The biggest game for them is Jets/Bills, and they will keep an eye on the scoreboard for that game.

The Dolphins have shown they will play hard for Coach Flores all the way to the finish before. I expect them to do it again here. This is a game with a really low total and we are getting nearly a full touchdown. I expect a hard fought battle just as it was in week one when the Dolphins won by one point.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have found a franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. As long as the offensive line protects him to some degree here, I do think Burrow and this group of elite pass catchers can pick up some chunk plays on the Chiefs secondary. 

Kansas City's defense has clearly played better in recent weeks, but the Chiefs defense has faced some terrible offenses. They also have caught opponents when they are shorthanded. The Bengals offense is playing very well right now and they are quite healthy.

Cincinnati's defense is missing two key starters at linebacker. The Bengals defense didn't look very good against the Ravens last week with Josh Johnson at the helm. Patrick Mahomes gets back Kelce and the Chiefs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. I don't trust the Bengals defense to be able to slow them down.

If either of these teams gets down much and starts taking a lot of shots and playing quickly, it will help the over in a big way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Dolphins defense has been tremendous of late. Granted, they haven't played a tough schedule of offenses. Still, they have dominated the offenses put in front of them. 

In its current form, the Tennessee Titans offense isn't very good. Ryan Tannehill isn't playing with much confidence, and Derrick Henry is badly missed. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in 20 plus yard plays. They aren't explosive at all right now.

Miami's offense isn't any good either. Tua is inconsistent and relies on Waddle far too much. The Titans defense ranks top ten in the NFL across the board in the past five games. 

The weather here could play a role too. Winds and possible rain mixed with snow is expected to come in during this game. During the middle of the game the sustained winds are expected at about 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That will just increase as the game gets into the fourth quarter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Bucs* The Tampa Bay Bucs have the best offense in the NFL. Yes, they are shorthanded right now, but with Brady under center and still some pretty good pass weapons on the outside and a great tight end, this is an elite offense. 

The New York Jets have the worst defense in the NFL. The secondary is a major problem. That isn't an issue you want to have with Brady and the Bucs coming to town. Tampa Bay needs to win for playoff positioning, and this Jets defense looks like a group the Bucs could thump.

Tampa Bay struggled earlier in the year on the road, but they have played better of late away from home. They won by 13 at Atlanta. They just blasted Carolina 32-6 on the road last week as well.

Zach Wilson is still a mess and makes far too many mistakes for the Jets. It isn't all his fault, and the Jets need more playmakers in general. Tampa Bay's defense is very good against the run, and I don't see the Jets as able to come close to keeping pace here.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have faced the second easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Their offense ranks 19th in YPP and that is with Teddy Bridgewater under center and against weak defenses. Now, they are left with Drew Lock and they are up against an Oakland defense that is quite a bit better than anyone expected they would be this season.

Oakland will likely be without Darren Waller here. The Raiders are much worse offensively without Waller, who is an elite tight end. Oakland could muster only 16 points against Cleveland last week without Waller. They only scored 15 against Washington without Waller. They scored only 9 points against KC without Waller. The Broncos defense is better than those defenses. I don't think Las Vegas will score many here.

Bridgewater to Lock is a big step down. Bridgewater has been an underrated quarterback for much of his NFL career. Lock is wildly inconsistent and he lacks good weapons on the outside as well.

A low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears turn to Nick Foles in this game. The Bears really don't have a good option at quarterback at all. Foles likes to throw a bunch of short passes and play it very safe. Allen Robinson is the Bears only good option at wide receiver and he is currently on the COVID list. He is doubtful to return before this game. The Bears will be without Jakeem Grant and left tackle Jason Peters as well.

Seattle has played well defensively of late. The Seahawks are second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bears are likely to have a conservative game plan here, and I don't think that will lead to much success for Chicago. 

The Bears defense has faced the toughest slate of opposing offenses so far this year. Seattle's offense isn't even close to what it was in the past. The Seahawks have been pretty reliant on the big play, but the Bears don't give up too many big plays.

Seattle's weather for Sunday looks very questionable. There is a 50% chance of snow during this game and winds of 14 mph with very cold temperatures are in the forecast. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Divisional unders in the NFL have been good bets especially in the late regular season games. These two teams know each other well and that often helps the defense. 

Jake Fromm is expected to get his first start for the Giants here. Fromm isn't likely to be anything more than a game manager here. He was fine at Georgia, but he was never asked to do too much with an elite offensive line and very good receivers. Kadarius Toney is a game time decision here, and if he does play he will be less than 100 percent. The Giants lack outside weapons. The offensive line is below average as well.

The Eagles run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. The Giants defense has actually been pretty good this year. Despite playing the 5th toughest slate of offenses, the Giants are 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Seven of the Giants last eight games finished at 40 points or lower. 

Winds of 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the forecast for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons will play in San Francisco this coming Sunday. Atlanta now has a real chance to make the playoffs if they can win this game. If they lose this one, they are basically out of the race. 

San Francisco is coming off an OT win over Cincinnati. The Bengals outgained the 49ers, but it was turnovers that handed that game to the 49ers. 

The 49ers have been a pure fade at home under Kyle Shanahan, especially as a favorite. How bad have they been? San Francisco is 4-15-1 ATS as a home favorite under Shanahan. They are 0-9-1 ATS in their 10 games as a home favorite of more than 5 points. They are favored by more than a TD here.

Atlanta has a pretty good run game going with Patterson of late, and Matt Ryan is playing much better in recent weeks.

The 49ers still have a terrible secondary, and their offense is inconsistent. 

Grab the points.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play Under* Josh Allen is banged up for the Buffalo Bills. I would expect the Bills to be more cautious in their play calling here for a couple reasons. First, the Panthers have a good secondary and they could make things difficult for the Bills to begin with. Second, the Bills are a big favorite here and they can likely win this game without Allen having to do a lot. Allen is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league as well, and limited mobility makes him much less dangerous.

The Panthers offense is a mess regardless of whether Cam Newton or PJ Walker is under center. Carolina is going to want to run the football a bunch here. Matt Rhule has said he wants 35 carries a game. Here is his chance. The Bills secondary is above average even with their injury problems. The Bills run defense was taken advantage of by the Patriots. I don't think the Panthers can do the same, but they will try.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense is the best in the NFL. They have scored 29 points or more in eight straight games. Tom Brady and this Bucs offense have consistently been tremendous this year.

Buffalo's defense is good, but the Bills defense isn't as good as it looks on paper. First, the Bills have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bills have also played in a couple bad weather games that have helped their numbers. Also, Tre'Davious White is now out and he is their top cover corner. That's not a good guy to be without when going against this Bucs passing attack.

The Bills offense is still good. Last week's game against New England is a throw away. The winds there were far too much to throw the ball around. Josh Allen should have success against a middle of the road Bucs secondary. 

The weather here looks good. The total is pretty high, but I think this is a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers secondary has been aggressive this year. They have been able to force some turnovers, but they are also prone to giving up big plays. Joe Burrow has turned it over too much this year and the 49ers could pick up an interception or two here. Still, Burrow is a good quarterback and his receivers are very good. They are more than capable of the big play ball here.

The Bengals lost their defensive leader in Logan Wilson due to an injury. Cincinnati's defense is clearly better than last year, but they aren't as good as their statistics on the season would tell you. They have played a weak slate of opposing offenses. Ewuzie is likely to try to play, but he is far less than 100%. Deebo Samuel is expected to play here and that helps the 49ers in a big way. George Kittle should have a big game against a Bengals defense that has struggled badly covering tight ends this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans are the worst offense in the NFL, and it isn't close. Houston has been held to 9 points or less in six of their last ten games. The Texans gained 2.8 yards per play at home against a mediocre Colts defense in their last game. Houston has no strengths on defense.

The Seattle Seahawks offense has been a mess of late as well. Seattle might have won last weekend, but the offense didn't look like it was fixed. In fact, they only gained 4.8 yards per play. The offensive line is weak and Russell Wilson doesn't look 100 percent.

The Seattle defense has been good against the run. Houston has no deep passing to keep them honest.

The Texans defense has been fighting hard in recent weeks. They haven't given up.

An ugly game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I had a lean to the under in this game even without weather concerns. With the weather forecast for Buffalo, I have to bet the under here.

The weather forecast calls for 21 mph sustained winds at the start of this game with wind gusts of 30 mph through the game. There is currently about a 60 or 70% chance of snow showers during this game as well. The wind is the key, and the snow would be a nice bonus on top of it.

The Patriots are a run heavy team, but the Bills rank second in the NFL in rushing defense.  Buffalo's offense is best when going through the air, but the wind should make them more conservative and the Pats secondary is elite.

This is a very big divisional game. Divisional unders have been very solid in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*This number has moved down a bit as more people have seen the forecast here. I would still play this game down to 41* 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos go to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a key AFC West matchup on Sunday night. The Chiefs have struggled this year on the whole, but here they are back at the top of the division and coming off a bye week.

Kansas City is laying a pretty big number here. The expectation is for Kansas City to play well off a bye thanks in large part to Andy Reid. I don't disagree with that, but if Kansas City does play from the lead it helps the under here.

When Andy Reid coached teams are home favorites of 6 points or more- the under is a whopping 45-19 since 2005. The Chiefs are in that spot here. 

Kansas City moves much slower when they have the lead. Denver is likely to use the two high safety look and make Mahomes gradually move the ball down the field as well.

The Chiefs defense has quietly been much better in the last few weeks.

The weather calls for sustained winds of 14 mph and gusts of 22 mph for this one.

Take the under.