PAGE_HEADER

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Lions offense is just dreadful. It is terrible to begin with, and now they are without clearly their best offensive player in De'Andre Swift. How are they going to move the football consistently? I certainly wouldn't want to count on Jared Goff and this terrible roster of receivers. How bad has this Detroit offense been? They haven't topped 19 points in a single game since week one of the season. They are averaging 11.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook. Mattison is a solid backup, but he doesn't have the same breakaway capabilities. The Vikings should be playing from the lead here, and I would expect them to keep things more conservative in this one. Zimmer is a coach who does slow the pace and run more with the lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Tampa Bay Bucs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite. The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 

The Falcons are a tough team to bet on right now, but I don't think they are quite as bad as the market believes they are. Atlanta played Tampa Bay very tough earlier this year. The final score of 48-25 isn't indicative of how difficult that game was for the Bucs. Atlanta actually outgained Tampa Bay in that game. That game was 28-25 entering the fourth quarter. Matt Ryan threw two pick sixes back to back and Tampa Bay ran away with it late.

Situationally, this is a tough spot for the Bucs. They are coming off a key win over the Colts on the road last week. They host the Buffalo Bills in a huge game next weekend. 

Atlanta has improved a bit defensively. They have given up the least plays of 40 plays or more in the NFL.

Take Atlanta. 

*3 Star Play on Vikings* The Minnesota Vikings play one score games that go right to the final whistle almost every single week. Getting these points is more valuable with the Vikings than it would be with most other teams. 

Mike Zimmer has been a great ATS moneymaker in the long run. He's 72-49 ATS overall. Zimmer has been particularly good in non-divisional games. He is 50-27-1 ATS in those spots.

Kyle Shanahan's teams have been money burners as home favorites. In fact, they are 3-15-1 ATS as a home favorite overall. They are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 as home favorites. 

The Vikings have two elite receivers in Jefferson and Thielen. I don't think the 49ers secondary is good enough to consistently slow them down. Kirk Cousins is playing with a ton of confidence right now.

Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Tampa Bay Bucs have slowly gotten healthier. Both Devin White and Vita Vea are considered probable for this one. Vea in particular is crucial in this matchup against a great runner like Jonathan Taylor. 

The Tampa Bay offense is much better with Rob Gronkowski back on the field as well. Tom Brady and this Bucs passing attack should be able to do damage against a highly questionable Colts secondary. The Colts rank 21st in opponent QBR allowed. 

The Colts are at just a +0.16 yards per play margin on the year. The Bucs are at an impressive +1.01 yards per play margin. 

The narrative is going around that Tampa Bay can't win on the road, and these guys have heard this during the week. They are the far superior team here.

Indianapolis relies heavily on the run. The best run defense in the NFL is Tampa Bay. I think they slow down Taylor.

Take Tampa Bay. 

*3 Star Play on Bills* The Buffalo Bills were throttled last week by the Indianapolis Colts. Buffalo is still a top five team in the NFL. I won't overreact to one terrible showing. 

Josh Allen is still a very good quarterback, and the Saints have struggled badly with mobile quarterbacks (Hurts for the Eagles last week for example). Allen should do damage both with his legs and his arm.

The Saints offense is an absolute mess right now. New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara again for this game. Now, Mark Ingram is badly banged up and is very questionable for this contest as well. With Jameis Winston out, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill could split time at quarterback here. Both of those guys are playing through injuries as well though.

The Bills have what might be the healthiest roster in the NFL right now. Buffalo has avoided the injury bug many others have.

This is a get right spot for Buffalo against a Saints team that is the walking wounded right now. 

Take Buffalo. 

*3 Star Play Under* We're going to get either Colt McCoy (seems increasingly likely) or a badly dinged up Kyler Murray in this one. Hopkins is out for the Cardinals as well and that makes this offense a much less intimidating task for the Seattle defense. Arizona had just 3.2 yards per play last week against Carolina. 

Seattle's offense put up 0 points last week against Green Bay. I certainly expect them to be much better here, but this Seattle offensive line is a major problem and their running game isn't good at all either. Russell Wilson isn't 100 percent healthy. The Cardinals defense is an above average unit as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders have continually given up big plays in the passing game. Gus Bradley is unwilling to go away from his normal scheme to use the two high safety look that has been great against Patrick Mahomes and others in the NFL who are great with the deep ball. Mahomes burned the Raiders last week. I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack can do the same.

Burrow has three great options at wide receiver in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Chase and Higgins are both excellent deep threats. 

The Bengals defense looked good early in the season, but the truth has come out in recent weeks. This is still a below average defense that is very poor in the secondary. They struggle against good tight ends, which makes the Raiders a tough matchup for them.

The Bengals last 3 games have sailed over this total. This one is played in the dome and conditions will be ideal for these passing games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total of the Week* The Detroit Lions plan to start back Tim Boyle in this one. While Jared Goff isn't a good NFL quarterback, it is a step down from Goff to Boyle. The game plan should be extremely conservative with Boyle under center. In fact, in recent weeks Dan Campbell has already been running the football a lot more. Swift had a whopping 33 carries for Detroit last week.

Baker Mayfield is dinged up and far less than 100 percent.  The Browns are highly likely to want to run the football a lot in this one and get out of here with a win over a weak team. 

The weather for this game should change things a bit. This is a stadium that is impacted a lot by wind gusts from the lake. Rain showers are expected with 15 mph wind and gusts over 20 mph. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't been nearly as good as you would have thought by the final scores in their last two games. The Titans only gained 195 yards in their win over the Rams. They had just 3.5 yards per play. In their win over the Saints, the Titans gained only 264 yards and 4.6 yards per play. 

The Titans offense is still decent, but Henry is a huge key and defenses can play them differently now. 

Houston's offense has been weak all season and they tend to be very conservative. The Texans have been especially bad offensively on the road throughout the course of the year. 

The weather for this game calls for a temperature in the 50's and steady rain with winds of 10-15 mph. That should be enough to make the two teams even more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense ranks first in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, and it isn't particularly close. That's important since the Philadelphia Eagles have gone extremely run heavy in recent weeks. Philadelphia is a solid running team and they'll have some success here, but big gainers shouldn't be expected. They'll also likely use up a bunch of time and have to kick some field goals.

The Saints offense is a shell of its former self. New Orleans will throw in some gimmicks here and there but they just don't have the playmakers to be above average in any facet of the game right now. The Eagles defense is top ten against the run as well, and the Saints are going to play conservatively here also.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings rank second in the NFL in tempo. The LA Chargers rank 5th in the NFL in tempo. Both of these teams are more than willing to go uptempo and throw it around if needed. 

These two defenses are badly banged up. Joey Bosa is questionable and didn't practice on Friday. Ryan Smith is out and Michael Davis is doubtful as well at the cornerback spot. Adderly and Webb are both questionable at safety. 

The Vikings are without star Danielle Hunter and now Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce are out as well. Breeland is questionable at cornerback for the Vikings also.

The Chargers are very willing to go for it on 4th down and that can lead to more points in either direction.

The two offenses are pretty healthy, and the two defenses are a mess. This one has real shootout potential.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are said to be doubtful to play according to Ian Rapoport. With Chase Edmonds out due to an ankle injury, the Cardinals will lean heavily on James Conner. Conner is a solid runner, but he isn't an explosive guy. He is more of a strong runner who can usually get you a few yards. McCoy is clearly far more conservative than Murray. If Murray does play he'll be at much less than 100%.

P.J. Walker starts here for the Panthers. Walker doesn't look like an NFL quarterback in his time under center thus far. The game plan is likely to be very conservative with Walker at quarterback. The Panthers have scored just 28 points in their last three games combined. 

Arizona quietly has the #2 ranked defense in DVOA so far this year. The Cardinals aren't likely to give up much against this Carolina offense.

On the other side, Carolina is 2nd in YPP allowed and 11th in DVOA on defense. 

These two teams both rank in the bottom 10 in the country in tempo this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys were awful offensively for more than 3/4 of the game against the Denver Broncos, and yet they are still first in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. 

Dak Prescott looked very rusty for much of the game against the Broncos, but I expect Dak to be much better here. It helps that Atlanta has a weak pass rush and a poor group of corners as well.

The Falcons defensive numbers are definitely skewed. They have played one offense in the top 12 in the NFL in yards per play all season long (Tampa Bay). They allowed 48 points in that game. Their last few games have been against bottom 10 offenses in the NFL. This is a very weak Atlanta defense.

I don't think the Dallas defense is as good as many believe they are right now. They are better than last year, but that isn't saying a lot. 

Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in tempo. Atlanta ranks 14th in the NFL in tempo. This one is played in a dome on the fast track.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers rank second in the NFL in tempo. The Philadelphia Eagles rank 6th in the NFL in tempo. There should be a lot of snaps here. We don't have a posted total that is set particularly high given that pace of play either.

The Chargers strength is throwing the football. The Eagles defensive weakness is still their secondary. I would expect Justin Herbert and his wideouts to have a nice day here on Sunday. Austin Ekeler played despite being banged up last Sunday, and he averaged a very impresssive 5.8 yards per carry.

The Eagles rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry. The Chargers are dead last in YPC allowed. The Eagles offensive front should allow them to be able to run on the Chargers here.

The weather for this matchup looks good thus far. 

Jerome Boger's crew will be officiated this game. This is the best "over" crew in the business thanks to their defensive holding and pass interference calls.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play on the Texans* The Houston Texans take on the Miami Dolphins in a game that is hardly exciting, but I think it provides value.

Tyrod Taylor is back in the lineup for the Houston Texans. Taylor is a big upgrade from Davis Mills. With Taylor earlier this season, the Texans knocked off the Jaguars in the season opener and had a real chance against the Browns on the road in game two when Taylor was injured.

The Texans have played the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. Of course the Texans are bad, but the Dolphins are bad now too, and Miami is laying a big number here. 

Miami expected to be pretty good this year. They had playoff aspirations. Where would their minds be now? There is very little for them to play for now.

Houston knew they were in for a tough season. The Texans haven't quit, and I think they'll get an extra burst here with the veteran Taylor back in the lineup for this game. 

Statistically these teams are pretty similar, but one team is catching a bunch of points as an underdog and they have their leader back at quarterback. Grab the points.

Take Houston. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Broncos aren't nearly the defense people expected them to be at the beginning of the season. Denver got rid of Von Miller and that clearly is a hit. They also have several very key injuries. Bradley Chubb, Bryce Callahan, Josey Jewell, and AJ Johnson are all out here. 

The Dallas Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL. They aren't the team you want to be going against with a multitude of defensive injuries. 

Dak Prescott is expected to be back here, and he has two great running backs in Elliot and Pollard in the backfield. Lamb is questionable on the outside, but Dallas still has several top notch wide receivers. 

The Cowboys defense is improved, but they aren't as good as many believe now. Dallas still ranks as a bottom five defense in yards per play allowed. Teddy Bridgewater has Jeudy back on the outside and the Cowboys are unlikely to get too much pressure on Bridgewater here.

Dallas has scored 29 points or more in all but one game that Prescott has started (20 against the Chargers- they had a whopping 7.0 YPP in that one too). They should hit 30 or more here again.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints are a completely different team than they were a few years ago. The Saints are now a defense first team. New Orleans has a top five defense in the NFL. They actually have gotten a bit healthier of late, and the Saints already rank 3rd in the NFL in YPP allowed so far this year.

New Orleans is 31st in pace of play. With Jameis Winston, the Saints staff has decided to play it very safe and I don't blame them one bit. The Saints have ran the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps so far this year. That is easily first in the NFL. 

Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL. I don't see the Saints having all that much success on the ground here. 

The Bucs have a great offense, but the Saints defense has given Tom Brady some trouble in recent seasons. I think they'll have a good scheme again here. Will they shut them down? No. I do think they can slow them down though.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Football team secondary has been as bad as any in football. Washington has allowed 30 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. 

Washington's offense didn't punt a single time last week against Green Bay. Somehow they managed only 10 points. They put up 6.1 yards per play on Green Bay though and that was an encouraging sign for this team.

Denver gets Jerry Jeudy back for this game and he should be able to take advantage of the Washington secondary. Teddy Bridgewater is an underrated quarterback and I expect him to play well here.

This is a very low total with a favorable weather forecast for this one. 

Denver has a ton of key injuries on defense. At a full strength they are a good defense, but right now they are no better than mediocre.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Colts* The Tennessee Titans are coming off two massive wins over the Bills and the Chiefs. They should roll past the Colts right? I don't think so. There is clearly sharp action on the Colts here too and they have gone to -2.5. 

The Colts are +0.23 ypp margin on the year. The Titans are actually worse at -0.03 ypp margin. The Colts have been poor in the red zone on offense this year, but I think that should positively regress toward the mean. 

Indianapolis is getting great play from Jonathan Taylor, and Carson Wentz is quietly playing very well under Frank Reich. This is still a bad Titans defense. Tennessee gives up a bunch of big plays and look for the Colts to get chunk plays here.

The Colts run defense is pretty solid and they have done a good job at preventing big plays this year. 

The Titans have a big lead in the division. The Colts badly need this game given the time of the year and their place in the standings. Situationally, this is a strong spot for the home team.

Take the Colts. 

*4 Star Play Under* What do the Seattle Seahawks want to do a lot more of now that Russell Wilson is out? They want to run the football and be far more conservative. That isn't likely to work well against the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up just 3.35 ypc on the season thus far. 

New Orleans ranks as the slowest paced team in the NFL. They clearly don't trust Jameis Winston and they are running on 57% of their offensive plays so far this year. The Saints are just 25th in the NFL in yards per play. 

Rain and wind is in the forecast for this one. Winds of 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph should change the game and help the defense even more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather doesn't often play a major role in games played in Santa Clara, but it looks like it will play a very big role on Sunday night. Historic rains are headed for California and the west coast in general in the next few days. Forecasts currently call for 3-4 inches of rain on Sunday alone in the Santa Clara area. What about the wind? Sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph are in the forecast.

The Colts rank 26th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers rank 22nd in the NFL in tempo. With these conditions we should see a lot of running plays and that means a moving clock far more often than in a normal NFL game. 

The under has been very good at Santa Clara in the past because of the thick grass. This surface could be a real mess in this kind of rainstorm.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Las Vegas Raiders are an extremely inconsistent team. It's already been seen this year. They topped the Ravens and won at Pittsburgh. They also lost at home to the Bears, and needed overtime to beat the Dolphins at home. 

Philadelphia ranks 6th in the NFL in yards per play margin. The Eagles have played a tough schedule as well. They had to take on the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bucs all already. Philadelphia gets Lane Johnson back here and this offensive line has an advantage over the Raiders defensive front. Look for Miles Sanders to have room to run here. Las Vegas is giving up an ugly 4.64 yards per carry on the year. 

The Raiders rank worst in the NFL in yards per carry on offense. They do have a good passing game, but the Eagles defensive line is very solid and I expect them to get pressure on Carr without having to send blitzes. 

The Eagles have allowed only 15 plays of 20 yards or more so far this year (2nd best in the NFL). 

The Eagles played last Thursday so they had extra time to prepare for this contest. 

The Raiders put a bunch into last week's win over the Broncos in their first game without Gruden. I'm not convinced they'll be as good here.

Take the Eagles. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and New York Jets met earlier this season. The Patriots won that game 25-6. The two teams averaged just 4.9 and 4.6 yards per play in that contest. 

New England and New York both play at a tempo slower than the NFL average. Both teams struggle badly to get big plays. New England has only 1 play of 40 yards or more all season. The Jets have only 18 plays of 20 yards or more (27th best in the NFL). Both teams have struggled badly in the red zone on offense as well. 

The Jets defense is above average against the run. The Patriots prefer to run the football when they can. The Patriots offense is very vanilla with Mac Jones at quarterback. 

The Jets offense has no running game. The Jets shockingly have zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more all year. They are one of only two teams in the NFL to have 0 rushing plays of 20 yards or more.

It looks like there be some wind in this game- nothing extreme but enough to possibly make both offenses a bit more conservative.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns meet in Cleveland on Sunday. These two teams are 7th and 14th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The offenses are solid, but they don't play fast. It might surprise you to know that Arizona ranks 24th in overall tempo this year. Cleveland ranks an even slower 29th.

Cleveland is coming off a high scoring game and that is part of the reason the total is so high here. This game appears to setup differently though.

The weather for this game looks highly suspect. Right now, there are winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the forecast. We saw last year what the extreme wind from the lake in Cleveland can do to make a game much lower scoring. 

Even without extreme weather I think this projects as a game where both teams can limit the big plays from the other side. The weather is a great bonus though. 

Look for a hard fought game with more running of the football than a normal NFL game, which will keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Football team has allowed 30 points or more to every team they have played this year. Now, they host the Kansas City Chiefs who have arguably the best offense in football. It isn't going to go well for the Washington defense in this game either.

Buffalo put up 43 points on this Washington defense. Kansas City is 2-3 and they should be upset after their home loss to the Bills on Sunday night. I'll be very surprised if Mahomes and company aren't on point offensively against this terrible Washington secondary.

Speaking of bad defenses, the Kansas City Chiefs rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and it isn't even close.

Washington is a middle of the road offense, but I think Taylor Heinicke and company can have a good game here against the very weak Chiefs defense. Washington has averaged 26.75 points per game in their last four games. They should put up a good number here again.

Two terrible secondaries and the quarterbacks should take advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati has drafted some very solid linebackers the last couple seasons and it is starting to pay off. The Bengals are also much stronger on the defensive line now. It helps that the Bengals defense has stayed much healthier so far this season too.

The Detroit Lions wide receivers are the worst in the NFL. They are now without their top two wideouts for this game due to injury also. Their star center Ragnow is also out with an injury. Jared Goff is pretty good as a game manager, but he isn't surrounded by much talent here now, and the Bengals defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here. 

Joe Mixon is still banged up for the Bengals. He'll likely play, but he isn't 100 percent healthy. Joe Burrow is a very good quarterback, but the offensive line in front of him is very weak. Burrow was knocked around last week again and I think the play calling here could be pretty conservative from the Bengals. 

The Lions defense isn't supremely talented by any means, but they have been playing really hard for Dan Campbell. This Lions defense has looked much better in recent weeks. They have allowed just 19, 24, and 19 points against the Ravens, Bears, and Vikings in their last three games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Giants rank 8th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The offensive line has been far better than expected. Daniel Jones has played pretty well this year as well. Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph are great in the passing game in the middle of the field and Dallas is weak when it comes to defending tight ends in the passing game.

The Giants are scoring a touchdown on only 33.33% of their trips into the red zone so far this year. That should positively regress over time, and that would mean the Giants could start piling up the points.

Dallas has an elite offense. They might be the second best offense in the NFL (Chiefs 1st) right now. Dallas is so well balanced and Dak Prescott is a great fit in this offense. Dallas is averaging 31.5 points per game, and they have played some very good defenses this year. This is the worst ranked defense they have faced yet. The Cowboys should light up the scoreboard here. 

Dallas has shown they will let the opposition score a lot when the Cowboys are playing from the lead. On a fast track here I like the chances of a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers expect to start Trey Lance in this one and George Kittle is expected to be out of the lineup. That's clearly a negative for the over, but that is more than accounted for in this number. 

San Francisco was pretty good offensively last week. They averaged 6.3 yards per play against Seattle, but had some big mistakes that cost them.

Arizona is an offensive machine right now. Kyler Murray is playing as well as anyone. The Cardinals have so many weapons all over the field and Murray is great at getting everyone involved. 

San Francisco has home run ability in the run game, and Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Trey Lance will help the run game and I think that could be tough to stop for Arizona throughout this one.

The 49ers secondary gives up too many big plays, and Arizona has been piling up the big plays this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears offense looked quite a bit better last weekend despite playing in less than ideal weather conditions. Justin Fields clearly is the quarterback you want starting if you want potential for points. He has bigger downfield passing potential, but he also can make some mistakes that give the other team a short field sometimes. 

The Las Vegas Raiders offense has been very good this year. Derek Carr has big playmakers in the passing game. The Bears defense is an average or slightly below average unit now. Akiem Hicks is out for this one and Khalil Mack is questionable. Those are key injuries. Las Vegas should have chances to put together some great drives.

Early season games in domes have been good over bets in the NFL especially at low totals. This one fits the bill.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Rams ATS* The Seattle Seahawks have two big weaknesses as a team. They have a very weak offensive line. They also have a terrible secondary. Those are two weaknesses you don't want to have when going against the Rams.

The Rams defensive line led by Aaron Donald is likely to be pretty angry after a terrible showing last week against the Cardinals. They get a bad offensive line here, and I expect Russell Wilson to be under pressure early and often.

Seattle ranks 25th in QBR allowed. The Seahawks are likely to have issues containing Matt Stafford and this Rams group of solid wide receivers. LA has a very good offensive line, so I would expect Stafford to have time to throw here.

Seattle is coming off a fraudulent win. They beat San Francisco by 7 last week, but the 49ers averaged 6.3 yards per play compared to only 4.3 ypp for Seattle. San Francisco was 2/14 on 3rd down. Seattle was also +2 in turnover margin.

The Rams have the impressive win over Tampa Bay already this year. Seattle has played a weak schedule and already has a home loss to the Titans, who haven't played well overall this year. 

Sean McVay has done a good job being ready for Pete Carroll teams in the past. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

Take the Rams. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos both have a lot of key injuries. Glasnow is out on the offensive line for the Broncos. Risner is questionable as well and the Ravens certainly like to bring a lot of pressure.

Lamar Jackson is questionable but is expected to play for the Ravens. Baltimore star lineman Ronnie Staley is out here and this Broncos pass rush should be able to get to Jackson here. Villaneuva is also banged up on the offensive line. 

Marlon Humphrey is likely to play here and he is one of the most talented corners in the game. 

The Denver defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Broncos have certainly played a fairly easy schedule of offenses so far, but this is definitely a good defense. 

Denver's offense ranks 32nd in the NFL in pace of play. The Broncos are running the ball 4th most of any team in the NFL.

Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in pace of play. They are running the ball third most of any team in the NFL.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts were thought to have an average or slightly above average defense before the season. They rank 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. Take a look at the 3 offenses they have faced this year though: Seattle, LA Rams, and Tennessee Titans. Those are three excellent offenses who will put up big numbers on a lot of teams. Miami is without Tua here and this is a huge step down in class for the Colts defense.

Miami put up 3.1 ypp against the Bills two games ago. They put up only 4.2 ypp against a subpar Raiders defense last week. The Dolphins don't have an explosive offense in their current state.

The Dolphins do have a very good defense though. They will be up against a badly banged up Carson Wentz and a Colts offense that lacks top end skill position talent. Miami's secondary is one of the best in the NFL.

Look for a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense has looked terrible this year. Matt Ryan appears to be falling off quickly at quarterback. It obviously hurts that Julio Jones is no longer here, but Ryan's arm strength isn't even close to what it was a few years ago. 

Atlanta is 29th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. They rank 32nd in DVOA so far this season on offense. Atlanta is a mess offensively and it starts with a terrible offensive line. The Falcons have what might be the worst offensive line in football.

Washington's defensive front hasn't played nearly as well as expected so far this year, but Washington has a great chance to cause this Atlanta offensive line a lot of trouble in this game. Washington has been hearing about their underperformance on the defensive line, and I think they show up and give the Falcons a lot of trouble here.

Taylor Heinicke has had issues with bad turnovers of late. I think Washington is likely to play it safe more often with him this week hoping to keep the turnovers to a minimum. A more conservative game plan and a slower pace of play is likely.

Both offenses have a bunch of question marks.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. 

This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. 

San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. 

Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can.

Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Miami Dolphins are coming off an embarrassing 35-0 loss to the Buffalo Bills. Tua was hurt in that game and Jacoby Brissett entered that game and didn't appear ready to go. 

Now, Brissett has known all week that he starts, and he should be much better. it also helps that he is going against a Raiders defense that isn't very good. Miami will be helped by Fuller being back on the field. The Raiders secondary is a clear weakness and I think Miami has the weapons to make them pay.

Derek Carr is a hot and cold quarterback. He can look great or he can look bad. The Dolphins secondary is elite. I don't think Carr will have as many open receivers as he has had in his first couple games. Both the Steelers and Ravens defense were severely shorthanded when the Raiders beat them.

In the NFL, teams who were blown out the week before often have value. Teams coming off a game with less than 10 points and who are receiving 30% of the bets or less (Miami fits this angle) 137-78 ATS (63.7% ATS covers) since 2005. The public is all over the Raiders here. 

Jon Gruden is 19-31-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more dating back to 2003. With the Raiders, he is 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.

Take Miami. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season.

The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on.

This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have a new faster paced offense with the new coaching staff this year. Justin Herbert is a perfect fit for this offense at the quarterback spot. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him, and the Chargers have upgraded the offensive line position a great deal. Rashawn Slater looks like a star already. The Chargers racked up 424 yards of offense against Washington last week. They go against a much worse Dallas defense in this one. 

Dallas isn't good at all on defense, and now they will be without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys secondary is a major problem area, and now they have a much weaker pass rush. 

The Chargers are expected to be without cornerback Chris Harris in this game. Justin Jones is also doubtful on the defensive line. The Chargers defense isn't a bad unit, but it is far from dominant. 

The Dallas Cowboys offense has all sorts of weapons and Dak Prescott looked good in the season opener. Dallas should be able to score and score quickly against most teams this year. Can their defense get any stops? That is a tougher question. They'll need to win shootouts more than likely.

This game is indoors and early season games between non divisional foes in a dome have been good over bets long term.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. Arizona torched Tennessee for 38 points last week. The Titans offense was a no show in that game. I think Minnesota's offense will show up more than the Titans did a week ago.

Arizona does have a very good pass rush, but the Cardinals secondary is extremely weak. They face a top 3 group of wide receivers in the NFL in this game. Dalvin Cook is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Kirk Cousins has all sorts of weapons around him.

Kyler Murray looks great this year. He is healthy and looks extremely mobile. This is a guy who is extremely tough to defend. The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins and multiple very fast wideouts to hit the home run ball with. The Vikings secondary is another questionable secondary.

The over is 55.5% in dome games in the NFL in the first two months of the season in the last six years. This is on the fast track and I expect to see some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense looked very weak against the questionable Carolina Panthers defense last week. The Jets had just 8 points going into their final drive of the game. The Panthers sat back in prevent and the Jets then went on a touchdown drive and the game finished 19-14. Even with that long TD drive at the end of the game, the Jets only finishing with 4.2 yards per play. 

The New England Patriots defense is much better than the Carolina defense. It would be very surprising if the Jets can score much here. 

On the other side, the Patriots are going to lean on the run game more this year once again, and the Jets are a pretty good run defense. I think this is the type of game where a Patriots lead and then conservative play calling and running the clock is very reasonable to expect.

New England is a well coached defense and they should bother Wilson in this game. Expect them to bring pressure after him here. 

The Jets defensive coaching staff is pretty good too, and I don't think the Patriots are anxious to hurry up and take a bunch of big risks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have some significant offensive problems. The Bears have a weak offensive line and a lack of skill position talent. Andy Dalton isn't likely to be the answer for this team. The Bears are very likely to be conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I would expect Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line to be a major problem for the Chicago offense. 

The Bears defense is still an above average unit. Stafford should do pretty well with the Rams, but I don't think they'll find moving the football easy against this solid Bears defense. 

The last 3 years these teams have played each year. The final total score was 26.6 points. None came even close to this total.

Allen Robinson is a great weapon, but Jalen Ramsey will matchup with him. The Bears should struggle to find anyone else to turn to. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two young quarterbacks up against talented and well coached defenses. I would expect to see two conservative game plans in this contest.

The Miami secondary is excellent. Mac Jones starts right from game one for the Patriots, but he isn't surrounded by great talent and Miami's secondary will be tough to beat. 

Tua Tagovailoa was good in the preseason, but his regular season performances haven't been very good. He's up against a great defensive coach here. I would expect Miami to want to run the football more than normal in this game.

Both of these defenses have been good at preventing the big play. I think that continues in this game.

The weather here calls for 15 mph winds throughout the game. That isn't massive, but it does help the under some.

Will Fuller is out for this game for Miami too, which certainly limits their vertical passing game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Arizona Cardinals offense will once again play very quickly this year. Kyler Murray wasn't very healthy down the stretch last year. He is once again healthier now and I expect big things from him. It doesn't hurt that he now has De'Andre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and AJ Green on the outside. 

The Titans pass defense is subpar, and I think Arizona is the type of team that can take advantage of that early and often. 

Speaking of vulnerable secondaries, the Cardinals pass defense is a clear weakness. Ryan Tannehill has been great in this Titans system. He now has another star in Julio Jones on the outside. AJ Brown is excellent as well. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to slow this duo down.

I think both of these teams will have a lot of success on offense. Another clear positive in this game is Jerome Boger's crew is here. Boger's crew is notorious for defensive penalties and high scoring games. In fact, the over is a whopping 114-77 in Boger's games as the crew chief (59.7% overs). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Houston* Everyone is betting on Jacksonville here. I get that Jacksonville has improved their talent pool. I also realize that Urban Meyer is a big name hire. Things should clearly improve for the Jaguars in general this year, but laying this number on the road is a little out of control. This is still a team with major weaknesses.

Teams with 6 wins or fewer from the previous year who are underdogs in week 1 of the next year are hitting at a 60% clip ATS in the last 15 years in the NFL. Houston fits that system. There isn't much positive to say about Houston. Clearly, they won't be a good team this year. Still, Taylor is a decent quarterback who can manage a game. Remember, he is going up against a really bad Jacksonville defense as well.

The Texans are still professionals who are going to put forth effort, especially at the beginning of the season.

I'll fade the public and go with the ugly home underdog.

Take Houston. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers have been the single best team in the NFL when it comes to scripted plays in the first quarter on offense. The coaching staff has been putting this offense in great spots, and Aaron Rodgers and the offense have been great at executing especially early in the game. Tampa Bay has been poor on defense in the first quarter this year as well. I think Green Bay plays from ahead in this game.

Tampa Bay has been a bit conservative on offense early in games this year, but when they have been down their offense is at its best. They have gotten more aggressive in these spots and they have the best pass catching weapons in the NFL. Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay offense should be able to move the ball in this game against a mediocre Green Bay defense.

I see Tampa Bay's pass defense as a clear weakness. Drew Brees wasn't able to exploit that weakness. Aaron Rodgers should be able without too much trouble.

The Packers defense has been very quick to get into prevent defense and give up big plays to their opposition. If they do that in this game it could become a real shootout.

Did you know that non-divisional games with a temperature of 29 degrees or lower (average temperature during the game) have gone 71-31 in the last 102 contests. The cold weather without wind is not a negative for the over.

Look for plenty of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on New Orleans* I'm not going to buy into the "it is hard to beat a team 3 times" narrative. What if you are just better than the other team? The Saints offense has gotten healthier and there are enough weapons in the passing game that I would expect the Tampa Bay pass defense to really struggle against them. 

Tom Brady has struggled when under pressure and the Saints are good at pressuring the opposition without sending a blitz constantly. The Saints defense is my second ranked defense in the NFL right now. They have played extremely well in the second half of the season. Tampa Bay has been good on offense of late, but this is a clear step up in class.

Tampa Bay's defense has regressed in recent weeks. They are giving up far too many big plays this season. The Saints skill position talent is going to be hard for them to slow down.

Take New Orleans. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the LA Rams on Saturday. 

The LA Rams have the best defense in the NFL. This is a team that just doesn't give up big plays in the passing game. The secondary is deep and they will challenge the Packers passing game. Green Bay also is banged up on the offensive line and I see that being a problem here against an elite defensive front who can really get after the passer.

The Rams quarterback play is a major question mark. Jared Goff didn't look good at all last week. He looked like a guy who was struggling to make all the throws. He was throwing wobblers and couldn't get a spiral. His injury seems like a major problem. The cold weather has always been tough for him and I don't see it going well here.

The Rams should run it often and try to keep the clock moving. The Packers play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans have a top three offense in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill has been a great fit at quarterback here, and they have a star at running back in Derrick Henry. The wide receivers are underrated as well. There are weapons all over the field for the Titans.

Baltimore's offense started the year off playing poorly. They have really kicked it into high gear of late. While the Ravens wins late in the year did come against bad teams, it is important to note that the Titans defense is a bottom five unit in the NFL. This is one of the worst defenses the Ravens have faced all season.

There is no bad weather in the forecast here. 

Only one of the Titans last seven games has stayed under this number. 

Jerome Boger's crew is set to call this game. In Boger's crews games, the over is a whopping 114-76 (60% overs). Look for a lot of key defensive flags in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay offense has been inconsistent this year. Tampa Bay has been at their best when Tom Brady isn't facing significant pressure. The single biggest strength of this Washington team is their ability to rush the passer. Brady shouldn't be comfortable in this one.

On the Washington side, the offense is a mess. Alex Smith isn't healthy and he'll either be playing and struggling or it will be Washington backup Taylor Heinicke playing. He isn't a guy who instills any confidence. Washington will have to try to be very cautious on offense. 

Tampa Bay's defense is very strong against the run. The Bucs have given up some big plays in the passing game, but I don't think Washington is a team who can take advantage of that weakness.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Bills* The Buffalo Bills have been playing as well as anyone in the NFL of late. Buffalo's passing attack is a top three or four unit in the NFL right now. Josh Allen is playing with a ton of confidence, and he should be able to throw it around on this Colts secondary. 

The Colts have given up a lot of big plays through the air in recent weeks to the Steelers, Houston, and the Raiders. 

Indianapolis is without star offensive lineman Anthony Castonzo. He is their best offensive lineman. Phillip Rivers has performed poorly in the playoffs even in his prime, and he is far past his prime now. 

I expect the Bills to be able to score here, and the Colts will have to keep up. I doubt Rivers and his weak arm can keep up in this spot. The Bills defense has played far better in the final weeks of the season.

I'm going to lay the points here with the team with the much higher upside.

Take Buffalo. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Tennessee Titans need this game to make the playoffs. We know we will get a motivated Tennessee team coming into this one. I think Mike Vrabel is a solid head coach. The Titans have great balance on offense. Tannehill is a great fit for the offense, and his wide receivers are tremendous. Derrick Henry is a great runner, and the offensive line is solid as well.

The Houston Texans would be better off losing this game. Houston has a star quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but he has an injured elbow. He is expected to start the game here, but I'm not sure if he will finish it or not. Why would the Texans risk him getting a worse injury? Houston is expected to be without Tunsil, their best offensive lineman as well. The wide receivers are way below average with their current group that will take the field.

The Titans are going to score a lot of points here against a Texans team that hasn't been able to stop anyone on defense of late. Even the hapless Bengals offense put up 37 points on them last week.

This one could get ugly. 

Take the Titans. 

*3 Star Play on Rams* The LA Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets last week. The average joe public bettor won't want anything to do with this team in the following week. However, the sharp money is clearly pointing toward the Rams in this matchup.

While only 44% of the bets are on the Rams as of Saturday afternoon, 80% of the money is on the Rams here. Good teams in the NFL are generally good bets after a dud of a performance, and the Rams are certainly in that spot here. 

Seattle's defense has looked good in recent weeks, but have they really been tested? Their last four games have been against the Eagles with Wentz, the Giants with McCoy, the Jets, and Washington with Haskins at quarterback. To say that stopping the Rams offense will be a much harder task is a huge understatement.

Sean McVay has had a schematic edge over Pete Carroll for a long time. The Rams have outgained the Seahawks in seven straight meetings. They have won five of the last six meetings between these two, and they lost the other game by one point.

The Rams might have the best defense in the NFL, and the Seahawks offensive line will struggle here. The Rams are one of the few teams in the NFL with the players to slow down the Seattle passing game.

Take the Rams. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the WEEK* The Atlanta Falcons have proven that they will play hard even late in the season when they have nothing to play for. This is a time that has done this time and time again. I expect more of the same from them here.

Kansas City has been playing down to their competition in recent weeks. The Chiefs have won six straight games by six points or less. Kansas City basically knows their spot in the AFC will be number one. I don't see why they would want to try to pull out all their best plays and win this game big. This is a spot where the Chiefs should just want to win.

Atlanta fights to the end and stays within single digits here.

Take the Falcons. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Jaguars defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Chicago has really found something offensively of late. Trubisky is playing much better and Montgomery has been great out of the backfield both running the football and catching it out of the backfield. I don't see Jacksonville slowing this offense down. 

The Bears defense isn't what they were last year or even earlier this year. Chicago is banged up on the defensive side, and they have been giving up a lot more big plays.

Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and the over has hit a whopping 60% of the time in Boger's crews games in a sample size of nearly 200 games. Expect a lot of flags on the defense here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns played in three games with very bad weather this year. Those games were played in extreme wind and that makes their offensive numbers look a little worse than they should and their defensive numbers a little better than they should. The fact is in a game played in decent weather conditions, the Browns haven't had a game finish with a score lower than 44 points all season.

I admit that the Giants are a lower scoring team, and they may well have Colt McCoy at quarterback here. Still, this Browns defense has been really weak against the run, and I think the Giants should be able to run the ball in this one. 

The Browns rushing attack is one of the best in the NFL. Also, the Giants are going to be without star corner James Bradberry in this one. The Browns do have big play receivers on the outside. Baker Mayfield is inconsistent, but he should be able to hit some big plays here.

This is an awfully low total for today's NFL. I view the Browns as an over team, so I'll take the low over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Seattle* The Washington Football team just won 23-15 over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Washington didn't score an offensive touchdown in that game. In fact, they only had 193 yards and 3.1 yards per play. 

The Washington win in that game had a lot more to do with Nick Mullens being really bad than anything else. Washington also lost Alex Smith due to an injury in that game. Dwayne Haskins came in and looked really bad as he previously has.

I think this number is a pretty good grab for Seattle even if Smith were healthy, but it will likely be Haskins here. Haskins at this point is a very bad NFL quarterback, and he is a turnover machine.

Seattle has been up and down this year, but this number has to go up from here. The Seahawks are the much more talented team.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous in every way this year. Green Bay is much healthier on the offensive side of the football than the average NFL team right now. 

Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The Packers have faced a lot of tough defenses too. The Packers are balanced on offense, which allows them to be very good in the red zone as well.

Carolina's defense has given up a lot of big plays this year. The Panthers secondary is a big problem, and Aaron Rodgers and this group of receivers should take advantage of this unit. 

On the other side, the Packers defense has been middle of the road this year. Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina offense have continued to be pretty good this year. Green Bay should have a lead in this game as well, and when the Packers get a lead in the second half they are quick to play a prevent defense. This has allowed a lot of opponents to put up points in the fourth quarter. A good example of this was their win over the Bears a couple weeks ago.

Look for a high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Buffalo* The Bills are a very strong. I backed them against Pittsburgh and I will back them again here. Denver is without their top four cornerbacks in this game. The Broncos secondary is in shambles right now. Buffalo has the receivers to take advantage of that even without Brown on the field. 

Josh Allen continues to show that he has improved greatly as a quarterback. He is clearly a top six or eight quarterback in the NFL now. Given the Broncos defensive situation this is a great spot for him and the Bills offense.

The Denver offense can't be trusted. Drew Lock isn't a good NFL quarterback. Buffalo's defense started the season out struggling, but this is a talented unit that is playing much better now and they have stayed relatively healthy.

This number has dropped to a buy point for me.

Take Buffalo. 

*4 Star Play on the Buffalo Bills* I like this spot for the Buffalo Bills. Pittsburgh comes into this game with some significant injury problems on defense. The linebacker spot was an area of strength for the Steelers coming into this year, but it is now a major weakness without the likes of Bush and Dupree. Joe Haden is their best guy in the secondary and he is hurt now as well. 

Pittsburgh has played the single easiest slate of offenses so far this year. The Steelers have padded their stats to a large degree. This is a good defense, but they aren't as good as they look on paper.

Buffalo's Josh Allen isn't getting enough credit for how good he has been this year. Allen has really improved, and he has great weapons on the outside to take advantage of this weakened Steelers defense. 

The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all, and they have had issues with drops in the passing game.

Buffalo's defense has been rounding into form in recent weeks. This is a huge game for Buffalo to prove they are a contender in the AFC.

Take Buffalo. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks offense has really come back down to earth in recent weeks. After last week's loss at home against the Giants, Pete Carroll said the Seahawks need to run the football a lot more and get back to giving the ball to Chris Carson a lot more. I don't understand that strategy, especially against the Jets.

New York is third in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. If the Seahawks want to run the ball consistently here and play as slow as they have been playing in recent weeks, I think that gives a lot more value to the under.

The Jets offense is averaging 5.0 YPP at home and only 4.4 YPP on the road. The Seahawks defense is clearly much better with Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap on the field. Adams plays against his old team here and he should be ready to go. 

The weather report calls for rain here and that could lead to an even more conservative game plan from each team. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Titans and Jaguars meet up on Sunday afternoon. The Titans beat the Jaguars 33-31 earlier this year. The two teams had 6.0 and 6.5 yards per play in that game. The Jaguars have quite a few injuries on the defensive side now. I think they are a bit weaker on defense than they were in that first matchup.

Tennessee is a really good offense. They have a great running back in Henry. They also have very good wide receivers and an efficient quarterback in Tannehill. Smith is a good offensive coordinator for them also. I don't think Jacksonville can do much of anything to slow them down here.

Mike Glennon has done a decent job at quarterback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville does have some decent pieces on the outside to throw the ball to. The Titans have absolutely no pass rush, and I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball through the air pretty well here.

Both teams play much faster than the NFL average, and this total isn't all that high in today's NFL.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots should come up with a good defensive scheme to face Jared Goff and the Rams here. They certainly did a couple years ago in the Super Bowl. Jared Goff can look great one game and very questionable the next game. 

The New England offense is being very conservative on offense right now. The Patriots run the ball a bunch. The Rams are allowing 3.91 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to do a good job stopping the run here. I don't trust Cam Newton to be able to do much through the air against this elite secondary either.

The Rams defense ranks number one in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall. 

Both of these teams have played 8 of their 12 games so far this year under this total. 

Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Thursday night.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on the LA Rams* The LA Rams were in a tricky spot against San Francisco on Sunday, and they put in a poor effort. I think they bounce back here. The Rams have proven they can win on the road, and they have arguably the best defense in the NFL.

Arizona had an ugly performance against New England on Sunday. Kyler Murray doesn't look healthy, and if Murray isn't himself it really hurts this offense in a big way. He didn't run nearly as much and that is a huge part of this offense. 

Last year, the Rams matched up really well against Arizona and dominated them. The Cardinals are clearly a better team this year than they were a year ago, but this line is lower than I expected on the Rams.

The Rams are the far more complete team here. The Rams wide receivers are likely to give the Cardinals defensive backs a lot of problems in this one.

The Rams bounce back. I like this as a 4 star play up to -2.5 here. 

Take the LA Rams. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks defense is much improved with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams. Seattle has allowed 5.8 yards per play on the year, but only 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. They have actually played two good offenses in those last three games too (Arizona and the LA Rams). 

Seattle has been far more conservative with their play calling in recent weeks. Pete Carroll has said he wants to reduce the amount of hits Russell Wilson takes. This sets up as a game where the Seahawks can salt away the win by running the football and using up the clock.

Colt McCoy is expected to start here, and I think he is a big downgrade from Daniel Jones. McCoy doesn't throw the ball down the field as much, and he isn't able to use his legs the way Jones can. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play on Raiders* The Las Vegas Raiders might have been in a bad spot here if they had played well and won last weekend, but after the absolutely awful performance they put forth against the Falcons last week, there is no reason to expect them to not be ready for this game.

This is a circle the wagons spot if there ever was one. The Raiders overlooked the Jets last year and were drubbed by them. Here's their shot at revenge from last year, and a chance to get right against the worst team in the NFL.

The Raiders have played a much tougher schedule than the Jets so far this year. The Jets have consistently been beaten badly by above average teams, and the Raiders are an above average team in my book. 

Sam Darnold clearly isn't the answer for the Jets. I don't think the Jets care anymore, and the Raiders can't look past this game after such a bad performance last week.

Take Las Vegas. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals offense is a mess without Joe Burrow. The offensive line is the worst in the NFL. Brandon Allen is the starting quarterback here and he doesn't even know the system much at all. Their only touchdown last week was a special teams touchdown and that was against an average at best Giants defense. The Dolphins are an above average secondary. The Bengals are banged up in the running game, and it is hard to see them scoring much at all.

With Miami heading into a big game against KC the next week it is easy to see the Dolphins just grabbing a lead here and coasting and being happy to salt this one away and play with a slow tempo. Tua is the likely starter at QB here and that means a more conservative game plan.

Look for a low scoring game all the way around here. I think this could stay in the mid 30's or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans offense will look a lot different without Will Fuller on the outside stretching the field. Deshaun Watson is an excellent quarterback, but his numbers without Fuller are far worse in his career than his numbers with Fuller on the field. This will be the first time he has been without Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins (now at Arizona).

Houston has put up a lot of points of late, but they haven't been up against a good defense in a long time. In fact, the last solid defense they played was the Steelers back in September. 

Indianapolis is expected to be without star lineman Anthony Castonzo. That will make Phillip Rivers a little less comfortable in the pocket. The Colts prefer to play it safe offensively and move at a slower tempo.

Divisional games late in the season have been good under bets, and this one fits that system. 

I see both offenses as a bit overvalued with their recent high scoring games against bad defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense at home. Kirk Cousins is playing really well and Adam Thielen will be back in the lineup here. Justin Jefferson is a great second option. The Jaguars secondary is probably the worst in the NFL. I expect Cousins and the Vikings receivers to have a big day here. 

Dalvin Cook may be a bit banged up. Even if Cook misses time here, the Vikings offensive line is good in run blocking, and the Vikings have a good group of backup running backs. 

I think Sean Glennon is a step up from Jake Luton, and I liked what I saw from him last week. With the Jaguars offense getting a little bit healthier, I think they put up some points in this one. 

Minnesota ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

This game is played in a dome. We have two very weak defenses and an average total in today's NFL.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I see the Cleveland Browns as an over team right now. They had three really bad weather games which skewed their stats significantly. This is an above average offense with a strong offensive line and two very good running backs. It is also a defense that is clearly below average, especially without Denzel Ward in the secondary. 

The Tennessee Titans have been an amazing over bet with Ryan Tannehill under center. How good? The over is 20-4 in the Titans last 24 games with Tannehill under center. Derrick Henry does a great job keeping the defenses attention, and the Titans wide receivers are underrated by many. The Titans have big play potential at all times. The Titans secondary is vulnerable without Adoree Jackson. 

Both of these teams have 44 plays of 20 yards or more, which is tied for 9th in the NFL. 

The weather looks good for this one, and I expect both teams to put up quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins are expected to have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback here. Even if Tua were the starter here, I think this is a fair price on the total. With Fitzpatrick, I think this is a very solid price on the over.

The Jets defense is looking worse by the week. It would be a surprise if the Dolphins offense weren't able to put up quite a few points in this one.

On the other side, with a healthy group of wide receivers, the Jets offense has looked much better the last couple weeks. Sam Darnold is back here and he is an upgrade from Joe Flacco.

The weather looks good for this one, and in today's NFL if there isn't a weather issue this is a very low posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Las Vegas Raiders have really impressed me this year. Las Vegas has been great on the road as well. They won at Kansas City, Cleveland, and at LA against the Chargers. The Raiders passing game has upgraded in a big way this year. They have the speed guys on the outside and the elite tight end in Waller. Carr is playing with a ton of confidence right now.

Atlanta isn't the same team without a healthy Julio Jones. The reports are that Jones is doubtful to play here. If he does play he isn't likely to be himself. The Falcons running game has been really weak all year, and I don't think they can have much success against the Raiders front seven here. Matt Ryan is inconsistent and he relies on Julio Jones in a big way.

The Raiders have a strong offensive line, while the Falcons offensive front is a real problem. The Raiders passing attack has a big edge over a very weak Atlanta secondary. I'll lay the short number.

Take Las Vegas. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have become an over machine of late. Six of their last seven games have gotten to 57 points or higher. The Chargers aren't just getting over the total, they have been clearing it easily. Without Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram here, the Chargers are without two of their best defensive players. 

Buffalo's defense has been a big disappointment this year. The Chargers have been able to get Keenan Allen going in a big way of late, and Buffalo has struggled with slot receivers in coverage. Allen should have a big game here. 

There is some wind in the forecast here (14 mph on average). That is factored into the total though, and I think both passing attacks have the edge vs. the opposing secondary. 

If it isn't broke, well you know. I see both of these teams as over teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense is excellent, and I think they'll give Jard Goff a hard time on Monday night. Andrew Whitworth going down with an injury really hurts this Rams offensive line. What is Jared Goff's biggest problem as a quarterback? Dealing with pressure up the middle. I think Tampa Bay can bring that pressure and give him a lot of trouble here. 

The Rams are clearly a quality team, but their offense goes as does Goff. It isn't likely that they'll be able to run all over the Bucs, who I regard as the best run defense in the NFL. Can Goff have a big day here through the air? I don't think so.

The Tampa Bay offense has been a bit inconsistent this year, but they have all kinds of playmakers on the outside. The Rams defense is certainly good, but they haven't faced a lot of good offenses this year. Their secondary has a couple good cover guys (Ramsey is elite), but their depth in the secondary is questionable. I think the Bucs depth at wide receiver can give them some edges in this game.

Tampa Bay looked terrible in their last primetime game at home against New Orleans. That should have them anxious to prove that was a fluke. This is still a team that has some very nice wins this season.

Lay the short number with Tampa Bay here.

Take the Bucs. 

*4 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs were already going to be a play of mine, but now with the Raiders COVID issues, this is a stronger selection.

Oakland's defense isn't very good to start with, and now they will be shorthanded. It's possible they will be without a bunch of key guys.

Kansas City is off a bye week and ready for revenge after losing at home to the Raiders. It's a great situational spot.

Look for the Chiefs to be at their best on Sunday.

Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the WEEK* The Indianapolis Colts have a good defense, but they haven't faced many top quarterbacks this year. Indianapolis has had a very weak schedule of offenses they have faced this season. That changes here with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers coming to town.

Green Bay's passing attack has sputtered a bit in recent weeks because of the conditions. Against both Minnesota a few weeks ago and the Jaguars last week, the Packers played in winds of 25 mph and higher through the game. That changes the passing attack in a big way. Now, the Packers go back in a dome where Rodgers and this group of wide receivers has looked nearly unstoppable this season.

I think the Packers are going to put up a decent amount of points. I'm not confident Phillip Rivers can keep up. The Colts ground game will get them yards and some points here, but Rivers makes a lot of bad decisions and if this game goes down to the fourth quarter I want Rodgers against Rivers in a big way. 

Alexander is back at cornerback for the Packers and he is one of the best in the league. 

I like the Packers here.

Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense has been tremendous this year. Dalvin Cook looks like the best running back in the league. Minnesota has been very good offensively all year. They have been on another level offensively at home. How good? Minnesota is averaging a whopping 7.9 yards per play at home on the fast track so far this year. They have been above 7 yards per play in every game at home. The Cowboys weak defense is unlikely to have much success slowing them down either.

Dallas is getting healthier on the offensive line. Andy Dalton returns here. Dalton looked bad earlier this season, but he should get better blocking in front of him here. The Cowboys still have tremendous wide receivers. The Vikings secondary is still a major problem. Minnesota's defense has looked better in recent weeks, but those good performances are misleading. The Vikings slowed Green Bay because of 25 mph winds 3 games ago. A couple games ago they were able to slow the Lions offense down because Stafford got hurt in that game and Golladay didn't play. Minnesota then shut down the hapless Bears offense. The Vikings have improved some on defense, but they aren't good.

Dallas plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. The Vikings offense has been amazing at home. We're getting a total that is below average in today's NFL. The game is played in a dome.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are expected to start Jameis Winston here. Drew Brees is out with an injury. Winston is clearly one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He's also one of the best "over" quarterbacks in the NFL.

Winston is capable of a lot of throws many quarterbacks in the NFL aren't capable of. He can push it deep and really pressure a defense. At the same time, Winston is more capable of making poor decisions and throwing pick sixes than any other quarterback in the NFL. 

The Saints defense has been good of late, but Atlanta is a lot better offensively than the teams the Saints have been playing of late. Atlanta's wide receivers will put a lot of pressure on a Saints secondary that has been banged up of late. Atlanta should be able to move the ball pretty well here.

The Atlanta defense is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have weapons all over the field around the quarterback. It would be a big surprise if the Saints don't score a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a thrilling win that they probably didn't deserve over the Buffalo Bills. 

Arizona won an overtime thriller at home against Seattle in the first game too. They were also pretty fortunate to win that game.

Seattle is coming off back to back bad performances. The Seahawks are in circle the wagon mode here, and I think we get a much stronger effort from them this week.

Seattle has been hurting themselves with turnovers. Russell Wilson has to play better. I think he will in this one. The Cardinals secondary is average at best. The Seahawks receivers should be running open throughout this game.

Seattle at only a field goal is a discount here. We're buying low on a team with a high upside off two bad performances. Also, stock on Arizona is very high right now.

Take Seattle. 

*4 Star Play on the Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens have a great rushing attack, and New England has been really weak when it comes to defending the run this year. The Patriots rank 22nd in ypc allowed so far this season. Baltimore is third in the NFL in yards per carry, and we know they are more than willing to continue to pound it on the ground if necessary. 

New England has very little to play for right now. The Patriots are in a spot they haven't been accustomed to being in for a very long time. They are clearly not the best team in the AFC East, and they are very likely to miss the playoffs. 

John Harbaugh's teams has game planned very well for their matchups against New England in the past, and New England is far less talented on both sides of the ball this season. 

Baltimore has shown the ability to beat subpar teams comfortably on many occasions. I'll lay the number here with the much better team.

Take the Ravens. 

*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks play a bunch of close games, so being able to grab the points here with a great quarterback coming off a loss is the play I'm making in this contest.

Russell Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS as an underdog. Wilson's teams aren't dogs very often, and they have been great in this role. Additionally, Wilson is also 24-12-4 ATS coming off a loss in his career. Seattle didn't play well last week in Buffalo, but this was always the game that meant more to them. I would expect them to come with a much better effort here.

The LA Rams defense is pretty good, but I think it is a bit overvalued right now. The Rams haven't faced many good offenses, and several of the teams they have played have been badly banged up offensively when they faced them. Seattle is going to challenge this secondary in a big way. 

The LA Rams haven't beaten anyone good this year. They have beaten the NFC East and the Chicago Bears thus far. They lost a tight one to Buffalo. They lost to the 49ers in a poor performance. They also lost in a turnover fest at Miami. 

Seattle's defense isn't good, but they should improve some with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams coming into the fold now. 

I think the Seahawks bounce back here. They have far more weapons on offense and I like their upside.

Take Seattle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders offense is much better this year. Derek Carr has decided to take a lot more shots downfield, and it has made this offense work. Carr has turned into a solid quarterback, and he certainly has some good weapons around him.

The Denver Broncos have been giving up a lot of big plays of late, and Las Vegas has been getting those big gainers. Denver's defense has been a disappointment.

Las Vegas is favored here, and I do believe they should win this game. Denver has been able to put up a lot of points when trailing in the second half this year. Drew Lock is the king of the late game touchdown. Sometimes it has led to them coming back and winning late. Other times it has just let to the over cashing or Denver covering as an underdog ATS. 

Lock has a lot of weapons around him, and Denver has been playing quicker in recent weeks. Las Vegas still has a bad defense, especially in the secondary. I think Denver will be able to take advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans on Sunday. Cleveland played in one major weather game earlier this year and lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 16-6. The two teams had 4.7 and 4.4 YPP. 

The weather for Sunday calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 30 mph. There is also a 60 percent chance of rain during the game. The rain would help, but the wind is the big deal here. 

The Texans offense isn't very good if they have to be more conservative. Watson has to be able to throw it around. It shouldn't be as easy as normal to do that in this game.

Cleveland's defense has gotten a little healthier of late, and I think this unit is a little better than their season stats look. 

Neither team plays all that fast to begin with, and they will have to play more conservatively with the weather like this.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the WEEK* The Miami Dolphins defense has been really good since they got healthy in the secondary. They spent a lot of money in the offseason to upgrade their secondary, and it has definitely worked. They have a defensive-minded coaching staff. Miami's pass defense grades out as a top five unit if you exclude the first couple weeks of the year.

Arizona has played fast this year, but they haven't had the explosive offense many expected. They have gotten yards in smaller chunks. I do think they'll be able to run the ball pretty well here, but that uses up the clock and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals.

Miami's offense with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback is a question mark. I'm surprised the team moved on from Fitzpatrick so soon when they were doing pretty well. I also will note that the Miami offense has faced the single easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Miami's offense still has a questionable offensive line and that could be a problem going forward.

The line has moved up here, and I'm happy to take the under at this number. Miami will move slowly and play conservatively. Arizona has been contained by the better defenses they have played.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The New York Giants are coming off two heartbreaking losses. New York has fought very hard in both of those games, and the Giants have fallen just short against Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. 

Washington lost by a single point (on a failed 2 point conversion attempt) in the first game between these two teams. Since that time, Washington has gotten healthier. Washington has Antonio Gibson in the backfield looking good now, and their defensive line is much healthier again. Ron Rivera, their head coach, has also completed his chemo treatments and he is able to spend more time with the team. 

Washington hasn't been good this year, but with a win here they would be in a good spot in the woeful NFC East. This is a quick revenge chance for them.

New York played on Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye week. That's a huge advantage for the home team.

Take Washington. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have been great at turning games into low scoring contests. Even in an NFL environment where there have been a lot of high scoring games this year, Chicago has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 39 points or fewer. 

The New Orleans offense ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per play. New Orleans ranks 11th in yards per play allowed, but they have faced the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL so far this year.

The Chicago offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play. They don't have a good option at quarterback. This offense has been a mess all year long.

These two teams rank 25th and 27th in the NFL in explosive plays. These are teams who are far more likely to gradually move the ball down the field than do it in big chunks.

The weather is calling for winds of 12 or 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph for this game. That helps the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Four of the Patriots six games have finished at 39 points or fewer so far this year. The Patriots offense has all sorts of problems right now. The offensive line is badly banged up. Cam Newton isn't playing well and they don't have another good option to turn to. The Patriots have to be able to run the ball to move it consistently, but opponents are daring them to throw it and loading up the box. The Bills will do the same.

Buffalo's offense is shorthanded right now as well. Buffalo has to be able to throw to move the ball consistently, because this running game of Buffalo isn't good. The New England secondary is a relative strength too.

The weather here should be a problem. Some showers could be in the area, but the big deal here is the wind. Sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will make both teams far more conservative here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders meet on Sunday in Cleveland. The story here will be the weather. The chance of rain is about 50% throughout this game, but that isn't the problem here for scoring. The problem is the huge amount of wind. The current average of forecasts I use (4 different weather sites) is 26 mph sustained winds with gusts of 43 mph. That would become one of the windiest games we have seen in a long time. 

We have seen under money come in on this game already, and I think it continues to come in as we get closer to game time. This kind of wind changes the game plan for both teams.

Baker Mayfield likes to throw the ball downfield, but he is without Odell Beckham Jr. here and it will be extremely hard to throw in this kind of wind. It is important to note that the wind is expected to be blowing from side to side in the stadium, and that makes it even tougher for quarterbacks. 

The Raiders passing attack has really impressed me this year, but it isn't likely to be nearly as successful as normal in these conditions. The Raiders offensive line has struggled in run blocking.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers go to Baltimore in a huge AFC showdown on Sunday. 

Baltimore has been disappointing so far this year. The Ravens passing game ranks second worst in the NFL in success rate. Lamar Jackson seems like he isn't completely healthy at this point. Baltimore hasn't been a bad team by any means, but they have struggled offensively compared to a year ago.

Pittsburgh's run defense ranks first in the NFL in success rate allowed. The Steelers are very good against the run, and they don't give up many big plays. Look for the Steelers to do everything they can to force Jackson to throw the football here. 

The Steelers have a lot of weapons on offense. They are deep at running back, and they have all kinds of very good weapons at wide receiver.

Pittsburgh is a whopping 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 as an underdog. The Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog.

In a game that means so much and I see these teams as very even, I'm happy to grab the points.

Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last two years these two teams have met and the final scores were 15-6 and 17-7. That certainly isn't the only reason I'm betting the under here, but it is a good start.

The Chicago Bears offense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago's offensive line is questionable, and the Rams do bring a lot of pressure. Look for the LA defensive line led by Aaron Donald to be in the backfield quite a bit in this one. Nick Foles hasn't been terrible, but he has been a game manager. They don't take a lot of shots downfield. Chicago moves pretty slowly, and has had to settle for field goals often in the red zone. 

The Rams offense is good, but they have played a lot of weaker defenses this year. That won't be the case in this one. Chicago has the best secondary in the league, and we've seen this secondary give Jared Goff a lot of trouble the last two seasons. Robert Woods is questionable here with an injury, and if he doesn't play or isn't 100 percent that slows this Rams offense down. 

This field has seen a bunch of low scoring games played on it. The referee crew in this one has also been very good to under bettors.

Look for the defenses to have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense has been a mess of late. Their offensive line is badly banged up now, and they can't keep the running game going as they were earlier in the season. New England has averaged only 5.3 yards per play in their last three contests. 

The Patriots had high scoring games against the Seahawks and Raiders, but those two teams have some of the highest scoring games of anyone in the NFL. The Patriots other three games have all finished at 36 points or lower.

The 49ers have been playing slower of late. San Francisco ranks 27th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers are trying to lean heavily on their running game. New England is good at not allowing big plays, so I think the 49ers drives will take quite a while in this one.

New England runs the ball at the third highest rate as a percentage of plays. They also rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in their last three contests. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The two times these teams met last year the final scores were 23-3 and 30-6. The Chiefs defense is better than most people realize. Kansas City is able to pressure the quarterback and they have a good pass defense. The Broncos lack a strong running game to be able to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs.

The Denver offense is a mess. The Broncos may have won last weekend, but it was because of the defense and not the offense. The Denver defense is very strong on the defensive line. Denver doesn't allow many big plays. 

The other factor here is the weather. Snow is in the forecast for this game. Snow likely with wind as well. When you combine those two, it is a clear help for the under.

I think this number drops through the week with the weather, and I like the chances of this being a lower scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Carolina* All Teddy Bridgewater has done as a starting quarterback in the NFL is cover spreads. Bridgewater is 30-10 ATS as a starting quarterback. He is 16-3 ATS on the road. He is 14-2 ATS as a road underdog. Now, he gets to play against his old team in New Orleans. 

Carolina has been very impressive so far this year. Matt Rhule is a great football coach, and he has this defense playing better than anyone would have expected. Carolina is 7th in the NFL in yards per play margin (New Orleans is 9th). The Panthers have played a lot of close games this year, and I don't think there is any reason to expect anything other than a close game again here.

The New Orleans Saints haven't done a lot to convince me that they are a great team. Drew Brees can't throw the ball downfield anymore. The Saints may be without Michael Thomas again this week since he has a hamstring injury now too. If he does play, he won't be 100 percent. 

The Saints were very fortunate to beat the Chargers at home. New Orleans also lost at home by 7 to Green Bay. 

Carolina will play hard all the way, and we are getting more than a touchdown here. I think they at least keep this close.

Take Carolina. 

*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions have held a double digit lead in every one of their games so far this year. Have they been good at blowing those leads? Of course they have. Still, the Lions are a highly competitive team, and they still have a lot to play for at this point in the season.

Atlanta had one impressive game last week against Minnesota, but the Falcons are not a team I'd want to trust to win two straight contests. Atlanta has been terrible as a favorite, especially early in the season when the games have still mattered more for them. Atlanta is 4-20 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite in the first half of the NFL regular season.

The Atlanta defense ranks at or near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category you can find. The Lions secondary isn't elite by any means, but it is middle of the road and Matt Ryan is slowing down at age 35. 

The Lions have found a good weapon out of the backfield in Swift, and Stafford is still a solid quarterback. With Golladay, the Lions offense is a much more potent unit.

Take Detroit here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been able to score points when they get down early and need to comeback in the fourth quarter, but in other spots, they have struggled offensively. 

Philadelphia is 26th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Carson Wentz isn't a bad quarterback, but he has been without an offensive line and many of the weapons around him all year. Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey are out for this one. Jack Driscoll is also out on the line. Lane Johnson is expected to try to play, but he is far less than 100 percent.

New York put up a big number on Dallas' defense, but who hasn't? The Giants have averaged less than 14 points per game in their other five games this year. This New York offense is awful. Saquon Barkley is missed badly, and Daniel Jones has been very weak as a passer. 

The Eagles still have a strong defensive front seven, and I don't think the Giants can consistently move the ball through the air on many teams. 

The Giants defense has shown signs of life lately. They have been especially strong against the run.

This is a divisional game that does mean a lot to the teams since the NFC East is wide open.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Cardinals/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys were going to be a favorite of 3.5 points or so in this game with a healthy Dak Prescott. Prescott was injured and now Andy Dalton steps in. Prescott will be missed, but I think this line is an overreaction.

Andy Dalton is the best backup quarterback in the NFL. Dalton was a middle of the road starter for much of his time in Cincinnati. When Dalton is surrounded by decent players as he was earlier in his time with the Bengals, he can be effective. The Cowboys have amazing skill position talent on offense. He is set up for success here.

Arizona's defense hasn't been tested so far this year. They have faced Washington, the Jets, and the banged up 49ers offense. This is going to be Arizona's toughest test by far when it comes to offensive talent they line up against.

Dallas' defense is a problem, but I think they will use the running game more in this one. With Arizona struggling to stop the run, the Cowboys should be able to keep their defense off the field more often in this game. 

Arizona is a flawed team, and for them to be favored in Dallas doesn't make sense to me. 

I'll take Dallas on the moneyline at a plus money price. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers secondary is a mess right now. Miami put up 6.9 yards per play in a win over the 49ers last week. The Rams offense is a top ten offense in the NFL. I don't see the 49ers defense being able to stop the Rams passing attack. There are too many weapons for the Rams, and Sean McVay is good at scheming in a way to attack weaknesses. The Rams should put up a big number here.

The 49ers are starting to get healthier on offense. Jimmy G was put in last week when he had little practice, and some of the weapons around him were missing. I think the 49ers offense can be much better this week. The Rams had a couple defensive players banged up in their win at Washington last week, and this is a Rams defense that is very thin at multiple positions. The Rams defense isn't nearly as good as they look on paper. They have faced a very weak slate of offenses. 

In fact, if you look at the offenses these two defenses have faced so far this year, they rank as the 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest slate of offenses according to Football Outsiders. These defenses are worse than they appear.

I see a back and forth game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous so far this year. They are averaging 38 points per game thus far this season. Green Bay hasn't had Devante Adams for their last couple games, and he is their best weapon on offense. I don't think Tampa Bay has anyone who can slow Adams down on the outside. Aaron Rodgers has been in great form so far this season. He is willing to take a lot of deep chances, and in past seasons this Tampa secondary has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game.

Tampa Bay's offense has been up against some very solid defenses so far this season. The Packers defense will be the worst defense they have faced so far this year. Tampa Bay's wide receivers are finally getting healthy, and this is one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL. I think Tampa will be able to move the ball consistently here too.

Jerome Boger's crew is the referee crew for this game. The over is 106-74 (58.9%) in his games. They are known for their consistent pass interference calls on the defense.

This is a high total, but I think both teams move the ball and cash in on big plays throughout.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Systems Play CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers have had as many injury issues as anyone in the NFL this year. Jimmy G is back under center for them this week and that is clearly a positive. They do expect Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert to at least play part of this game. The 49ers though still have a severe cluster injury concern in the secondary. They are also without star pass rusher Nick Bosa. This defense was never great against the run, and now they aren't nearly as good against the pass as they have been in the past couple seasons.

Miami has been pretty competitive this year. They played a pretty tight game at New England in week one. They had more than enough chances to stay within the spread last week against Seattle, but they settled for too many field goals. They did pick up a nice road win at Jacksonville earlier in the season. Byron Jones is expected back in the Dolphins secondary and that is huge for this pass defense. 

Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach, but he hasn't been good at all as a home favorite. The 49ers have played down to competition in this role in the past. In fact, the 49ers are 0-7 ATS with Shanahan when they are home favorites of 5.5 points or more. They have lost four of those games outright. 

The 49ers should win here, but Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins should move the ball and there is back door potential here as well. This line is too big.

Take Miami. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs have a tremendous offense. They are more than capable of putting up a big number at any time. Still, Andy Reid's teams have been great under bets when they are big favorites. Why? Reid is often conservative after getting a lead. His teams grab a lead and then use the clock and move on to play another week. 

Kansas City plays Buffalo in their next contest after this as well, and that will be a huge game for playoff seeding with the Bills sitting at unbeaten so far this year. 

Las Vegas has a good running game, and I do think they'll get their yards on the ground in this game. The Raiders don't have a good downfield passing game though. The Chiefs actually rank #1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA so far this year. They now add in Breeland (suspended the first four weeks). This Chiefs secondary is solid. 

There is wind of 12-15 mph expected here and while that isn't major, that does help the under a bit.

The biggest reason I'll bet this game is this system- when Andy Reid's team is at home and favored by 6 or more the under is a whopping 41-19 in the last 60 contests. When the total is 44.5 or higher, the under is 24-7. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Atlanta Falcons are on a short week here after losing on Monday night in Green Bay. Atlanta has found ways to lose time after time. The team really shouldn't be as bad as they are, but they have been badly injured and this team has no confidence right now either.

Julio Jones is listed as questionable, but with him not practicing I think he will either sit this one out or be very limited. I don't need to tell you how much this hurts the Atlanta offense. 

Teddy Bridgewater continues to be underrated. What is his ATS record as a starting quarterback in the NFL. 30 wins and 9 losses! Bridgewater has been money in the bank. 

Matt Rhule is a good coach who is really doing a nice job with this Panthers team right away. 

The Falcons likely aren't even listening to Dan Quinn anymore. Quinn's teams continually disappoint. Under Quinn, the Falcons are 18-33 ATS as a favorite. Atlanta's secondary is still somewhat banged up, and their special teams are among the worst in the NFL.

Carolina has been very competitive in their losses this year, and this team has clearly improved through the season. The same can't be said on the other side.

Take Carolina here. I'll be betting a little bit on the moneyline here as well. 

*4 Star Play Over* The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet.

The Minnesota Vikings had one terrible game offensively against the Indianapolis Colts. That was a fluke, and it turns out the Colts defense is very solid. In their other two games, the Vikings have averaged 7.5 yards per play (Titans) and 7.8 yards per play (Packers). The emergence of Jefferson as another very good weapon on the outside makes the Vikings passing game dangerous.

Minnesota's defense is far worse than it was a couple short seasons a go. This Vikings secondary is among the worst in the NFL. They also have a very poor defensive line (especially without Hunter). 

Houston has played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far, and the Texans are going to score points against bad defenses. Here is a bad defense in the Vikings. Look for Watson and company to put up some big numbers.

Take the over.