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*4 Star NFL Jets/Bills CASH* The New York Jets defense is excellent. The Buffalo Bills defense is very talented, but they have underachieved most of the year. I think Rex Ryan will do a good job motivating the defense and his team in general though as they go up against his old team and try to ruin their playoff chances.

A key factor here is the weather. There are snow showers expected throughout the day. It won't be a lot of snow that's the big problem though. The wind is the huge issue here. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will make throwing the football extremely difficult. Both offenses are likely to become very predictable running the football a bunch here. That will also keep the clock going. 

In a game that means a lot to both teams and with poor weather, I see a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Packers/Cardinals Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers offense has looked a bit better in the last couple weeks. McCarthy is now calling the plays and he has given the team better balance. The offensive line is still a problem, but they have been better than they were early in the season. 

Arizona's secondary took a huge hit when Mathieu went down with a season ending knee injury. The Packers passing attack should be good enough to exploit the Cardinals weakness there. Patrick Peterson will probably play here, but he is dinged up as well. 

The Green Bay defense is no better than average at this point, and Arizona's offense is tremendous. The Cardinals rank first in the NFL in total offense. Arizona has been picking apart just about every defense they have played. 

The over is 5-2 in Arizona's last 7 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New York Jets need this game very badly. New York is being pushed hard in the AFC playoff race, and they simply can't afford to lose. New England would like to win here, but they don't need to win nearly as bad as the Jets do.

New England's injuries have to catch up to them at some point. This Patriots team is severely banged up. Remember, the first time these two played the Jets were leading for much of the game at New England before falling apart in the fourth quarter, but they did still get the cover. New York's defense has been one of the best at slowing down Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. 

New England is catching most of the public money here, but the line is edging toward the Jets. That's a strong sign of sharp money being on the home underdog in this one. 

The Patriots are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4. The Patriots are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Jets. A 14-0 angle. Take New York. 

*5 Star NFL Game of the MONTH* The Kansas City Chiefs are playing at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. They are taking 33.5 seconds between plays, which is the longest mark in the league. Kansas City's offense isn't very good. They have been putting up some big point totals of late because the defense has been scoring points in large amounts. That has made this Chiefs team look better than they are, at least offensively if you are looking at things like points per game. 

Cleveland's defense has been a little better in recent weeks. The Browns run defense still isn't good, but they have been slightly better of late. The Browns secondary is solid. Kansas City is likely to keep the ball on the ground a lot in this game and run the clock a lot. Cleveland has been running it a lot as well.

The weather is one of the big reasons I'm making this play as well. The forecast here is calling for rain throughout the game, and even more importantly, heavy winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 mph. That kind of weather is very good for under bettors.

The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 with less than 150 yards passing last game. The under is 4-0 in Kansas City's last 4 in Week 16. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. Top rated play. *NFL Game of the MONTH*

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed at least 20 points in each of their last 7 games. They have allowed 45 points in two of their last four games. Philadelphia's offense has been a little bit better of late, and the Eagles still play at the fastest pace of any team in the league by a wide margin. 

Arizona's offense has been amazing this year. Carson Palmer has been a star in this offense. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in total offense, and they are averaging 31.2 points per game. I think they'll be able to get a lot of big plays against this Eagles defense.

The Cardinals defense has been a bit disappointing of late. Arizona allowed 32 and 31 points in back to back weeks against Seattle and Cincinnati recently. They are a good defense, but they aren't elite like some thought they would be. Philadelphia will get a lot of snaps and opportunities here.

Take the over.  

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New England Patriots offense is very banged up right now. This is one of those games where I think it would make sense for the Patriots to simply get out healthy rather than worry about scoring everytime and winning big. Since I don't trust the Titans to be able to score on New England, I'm taking the under instead of the underdog.

The New England defense has been a lot better than people realize this year. New England ranks sixth in the NFL in total defense. They rank in the top ten in the NFL in both pass defense and run defense. This is a good balanced defense. 

The Titans have scored 14 points or less in 8 of their 13 games so far this year. I don't see them being able to score much here.

The weather could be a bit of a problem too. Winds of up to 20 mph could keep both teams running the ball more often than normal.

The under is 7-1 in the Titans last 8 December games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Titans last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more through the air last game. A 16-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears are both better on defense than they are on offense. Though Jay Cutler played better for a while this year, he is still Jay Cutler, which means he can't be relied on in big games. Minnesota's defense played very well last week against Arizona, and they have a great defensive head coach in Zimmer.

Minnesota's passing game is bad, which will allow Chicago to stack the box and make life difficult on Adrian Peterson. None of the last four meetings have gone above 43 points. In the last two meetings, no team has gained more than 330 yards of total offense. I think the defensive theme continues here.

The under is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 after a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the Bears and Vikings overall. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Jets/Cowboys CASH* I'm not big on playing road favorites in the NFL, but this is a good price on the New York Jets. Yes, the Dallas Cowboys are technically still mathematically in the NFC East race, but they know they aren't going to win it. The Jets have a whole lot more to play for than do the Cowboys.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been very good this year, and the Dallas secondary is inconsistent. The Jets offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Dallas defense was torched by Green Bay's running game last week. The Jets running game should get going in this one.

If the Jets can have much success on offense at all, it's hard to see the Cowboys covering here. How will Dallas score? The Jets allow the fewest amount of rushing yards per game of any team in the NFL. We all know Cassel isn't the answer at quarterback for Dallas, and the Jets secondary is good. 

Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. Take the Jets. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers are coming off a last second win over Detroit last week. Green Bay was certainly fortunate to get that win, and the Packers offense has shown in recent weeks that they have some major problems. Aaron Rodgers is still great, but the talent around him isn't good enough right now. Dallas' Sean Lee has been playing some great football, and he has helped this Dallas defense be much better since he has been healthy again. 

Dallas' offense is terrible with Cassel at quarterback. The Cowboys are going to have to run it early and often here, and Green Bay should be ready for the running game. Dallas plays at the slowest pace of play of any team in the NFL too, which is obviously helpful for the under.

The weather should be an issue here. There is a 90 percent chance of rain and 20-25 mph winds are expected too. Wind and rain is very difficult for the offenses. 

The under is 5-0 in the Cowboys last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a straight up win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Raiders/Broncos Total* The Denver Broncos have the best defense in the NFL. The secondary is amazing and the pass rush is the best in the league by a wide margin. Oakland's offensive line has been having some issues of late, and Derek Carr has looked shaky under pressure.

The Denver offense isn't very good regardless of who is at quarterback. The running game has been a bit better of late, but Oakland's defense has improved quite a bit in the past month. 

The first meeting between these two teams saw a 16-10 Denver win, but the Broncos scored the game winning touchdown on an interception return. Neither offense could get going in that one. Look for a low scoring game again. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Detroit Lions lost last week's game in awful fashion. Aaron Rodgers' hail mary completion to end the game will be remembered for years. Detroit did play well for the majority of that game, and their defense has been much improved in recent weeks.

Detroit allowed 16 in their win at Green Bay. They allowed 13 at home against Oakland. They then allowed 14 against the Eagles. Last week they gave up 27, but it would have been a decent 21 before that last play.

St. Louis' offense has been a joke of late. The Rams offensive line is banged up in a big way. St. Louis hasn't been able to pave the way for Todd Gurley to get going at all of late. Nick Foles was so bad last week that the Rams are going back to Case Keenum for this one. Keenum isn't a good option either. 

The Rams defensive line should get pressure on Matt Stafford, and the Lions can't run the football at all. Both teams play much slower than the league average in terms of pace of play. The public is betting the over at almost 70% and yet the line has dropped a half point. That's very telling.

The under is 7-1 in the Rams last 8. The under is 12-3 in the Lions last 15 road games. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Buffalo Bills defense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Buffalo just isn't getting the job done on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's offense has obviously been disappointing too, but the Eagles play at the fastest tempo in the NFL and they should break some big plays on this Buffalo defense.

On the other side, Buffalo's offense has been far better than expected. Tyrod Taylor has been excellent. LeSean McCoy has all kinds of reasons to be very motivated for his chance to go against his former team here as well. The Eagles defense has been really bad against the run in recent weeks. Watkins has been a great playmaker for this offense.

This total is too low for these two teams. Good weather is expected for this one as well. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is locked in right now. On the other hand, the San Diego Chargers offense is a mess. These teams met in late November, and the Chiefs won that one 33-3. Kansas City's pass rush was all over Phillip Rivers in that game, and there's no reason to expect anything different in this game. In two of the Chargers last three games, they have put up only three points.

San Diego is the single most banged up offense in the NFL. The Chargers offensive line is a patched together group that isn't good at all. Rivers has next to one to throw the ball to with all sorts of wide receiver injuries. Kansas City should shut them down here.

Kansas City's offense is nothing spectacular. The 34 points they scored last week was leading since the defense directly led to most of those points. The Chiefs should grab a lead here and then milk the clock. Kansas City ranks 30th out of 32 teams in the NFL in pace of play.

The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in KC's last 7 after gaining 250 yards or less last game. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The Washington Redskins have a real chance to be the outright leader in the awful NFC East. Washington would be my lean here as far as the side goes, but the public is pounding the Redskins and the line is dropping, which is a reason for me to stay away in this case. 

Instead, I'm playing the under. The Redskins and Cowboys rank 31st and 32nd out of 32 teams in the NFL in terms of pace of play. That means we'll see a lot of the play clock ticking very low before the snap in this one. 

Dallas knows they can't throw it very much with Cassel at quarterback, and I look to see a heavy diet of runs from the Cowboys. Washington's defense will be loading up the box. The Redskins offense has been pretty good at home, but Dallas' defense has solid numbers for the year overall.

These two teams are bitter rivals and they have played a lot of low scoring games against one another in recent years. 

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The under is 4-0 in Dallas' last 4 on grass. The under is 7-1 in the Cowboys last 8 following an ATS loss. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tennessee Titans are lacking playmakers on offense. Marcus Mariota is a good quarterback, but I don't think he has enough help right now. Tennessee generally likes to run the ball, but Jacksonville actually ranks first in the NFL in least yards per carry allowed this year 3.34 per attempt. 

Jacksonville's offense isn't great to start with either, and without Hurns at wide receiver this week, Bortles is going to have a difficult test. The Titans defense is an underrated unit that has been very good this year.

A couple weeks ago these teams played and their game stayed under the total. I think this one does too.

The under is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 December games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 on grass. The under is 7-1 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 21-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings can't throw the football with any kind of consistency, and that has been the way to beat the Seahawks this year. The Seattle front seven has still been doing a really nice job against the run. Minnesota's rushing attack is first in the NFL, but I think Adrian Peterson will find things a little tougher going than normal here.

Seattle runs the ball early and often, and their passing game lost a key weapon when Jimmy Graham went down with a knee injury last week. Look for the Seahawks to use the running game a bunch in this one, and Mike Zimmer's Vikings defense is a pretty good one. Minnesota is especially good on defense on their home turf.

The under is 6-0 in the Vikings last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a straight up win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Houston Texans defense may not have started the season playing up to their potential, but they have started doing it in the last few weeks. The Texans defense has been amazing of late. Houston's pass rush is obviously very good with J.J. Watt leading the way, and the Bills offensive line is banged up. That's a bad combination for Tyrod Taylor and this offense. The Houston secondary is elite.

The Buffalo defense has been up and down this year, but I think they can slow a mediocre Houston offense. The Texans have primarily been so good lately because of their defense.

There are a lot of good defensive minded coaches in this game, and neither team has a star quarterback. While the public is betting the over, the line has dropped by a point during the week. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Chicago Bears picked up a really nice win at Green Bay on Thanksgiving night. Chicago has had extra rest and preparation for this game. The San Francisco 49ers have been miserable away from home this year. They are giving up 35 points per game on the road. Jay Cutler has a lot of weapons at his disposal with this offense, and he is playing pretty well. With Matt Forte healthy again, the offense should be able to improve even further. 

While Blaine Gabbert has been fairly good in his first few starts with the Niners, I don't trust him a bit. The Bears defense has been solid this year, and I think their coaching staff is doing a great job helping them improve week by week.

At a touchdown or less, I have to back the Bears here.

The 49ers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 December games. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a win. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 350 yards or more last game. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 overall. A 16-0 angle. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star NFL Jets/Giants Value* The New York Jets will really miss Revis in this one. Eli Manning played very poorly last week, but he's had a nice season overall. I see Manning bouncing back in this game. The Giants have proven to be good at bouncing back from a loss in Tom Coughlin's era as head coach. The Jets running game hasn't been nearly as good in recent weeks. New York's run defense is pretty good. Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't even close to as good as he looked last week. The Giants have dominated this series of late. Take the New York Giants. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Tennessee Titans have a good young quarterback in Marcus Mariota. The problem for them is he doesn't have enough weapons around him right now. Mariota has no playmakers on the outside to take advantage of the Raiders weakness, which is their secondary. Tennessee is primarily a running team now, but Oakland's rushing defense has been solid of late. 

On the other side, Tennessee has the sixth ranked defense in the NFL. The Titans defense has been underrated all year. The way Oakland moves it most frequently is through the air with rookie Amari Cooper on the outside and budding star Derek Carr under center. The Titans secondary is excellent though, and they rank third in the NFL in pass defense.

The under is 6-2 in the Titans last 8 home games. Look for a lower scoring game than expected. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Houston Texans and the New Orleans Saints both like to get a lot of plays off quickly. That should mean both offenses get a lot of possessions in this one. Houston's defense has been inconsistent this year. Drew Brees and the Saints offense has gotten much better over the course of the season. The Saints should be able to come up with some big plays in this one.

The New Orleans defense has been the worst defense in the league by a mile so far this year. Yes, I know Rob Ryan was fired, but I don't think there is going to be a quick fix here. Houston's offense has playmakers, and I expect DeAndre Hopkins to have a big day on the outside against Brandon Browner. 

The over is 4-1 in the Saints last 5 road games. The over is 5-2 in Houston's last 7 home games. Take the over. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of Week* The Atlanta Falcons offense has been a disappointment all year. Matt Ryan hasn't played well. The offensive line in front of him hasn't protected him well. The Minnesota Vikings have allowed the 7th least amount of passing yards in the NFL. It's no secret that Atlanta needs to be able to throw it effectively to score very many here. 

On the other side, Minnesota is the number one rushing offense in the NFL. They are dead last in the NFL in passing offense. If the Vikings can't run it, they are in serious trouble. Atlanta ranks first in the NFL against the run. They are giving up only 87.4 yards per game on the ground. Adrian Peterson will likely have a tougher time than usual against this strong defensive front. Coach Quinn has done a really nice job with this Falcons defense.

Both defenses present a real challenge for the offenses in this game. 

The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 after a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Falcons last 7 after an ATS loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 on turf. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards passing or more. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Packers/Bears Thanksgiving Night CASH* The Green Bay Packers and the Chicago Bears meet in Green Bay on Thursday night. The weather in this one should play a major role. There is supposed to be rain changing to sleet with winds of 25 mph or more during this game. That's a really bad weather forecast for points. Jay Cutler and the Bears offense weren't likely to have much of an edge anyways, and the weather should hurt them a lot. Green Bay will likely be more conservative with their play calling on offense.

The under is 5-0 in the Bears last 5 on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. *Note- This line has been moving down with the weather forecast being nasty. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars at any price below that. Thank you*

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Arizona Cardinals offense has been dynamic this year. Carson Palmer gets to play against his old team here, and I expect Arizona to move the ball well. The Bengals defense hasn't played against too many elite offenses yet, and they will on Sunday. While the Bengals defense is solid, I don't think they are as good as the numbers make them look so far this season.

On the other end, Arizona's defense has been giving up quite a few big plays. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense definitely looked bad last weekend, but the Bengals offense has been very good overall this year. Tyler Eifert had 3 critical drops last week, but Eifert has been a huge difference maker for the offense this season. I expect him to have a big game in a good matchup for him.

Expect a close game where both offenses move the ball throughout the game. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings have been disrespected by the betting market all year long. I was really impressed with Minnesota's win last week at Oakland. The Vikings were in the classic look ahead spot. They had their divisional rival on deck and they still went out and thumped a pretty decent Oakland team. 

Minnesota has the number one rushing offense in the NFL, and I'm not convinced the Green Bay defensive front can hold up against them. The Packers have been a big disappointment in recent weeks. Aaron Rodgers is still a great quarterback, but he isn't getting any help right now. They dont' have the playmakers they have had in the past, and Green Bay's offensive line has been awful. Minnesota's defense is a good unit, and they should make life tough on the Green Bay offense that comes in struggling.

Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a win. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 5-0 ATS after allowing 90 yards rushing or less last game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards last game. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 November games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NFC. A 40-0 angle. Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Oakland Raiders passing attack has been really fantastic this year. Oakland struggled against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, but look at how they have done against other defenses this year. Oakland scored 35 points on Pittsburgh. They scored 34 against a good Jets defense. They scored 37 against Baltimore and 37 against San Diego. Detroit's defense is giving up 29 points per game.

The Detroit Lions can't run the ball, but they can throw it. Detroit has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and no one in this Oakland secondary can slow him down. The Raiders secondary has given up the second most yards per game through the air in the NFL. Matt Stafford should throw for a ton of yards here. 

With both teams airing it out and moving it right down the field, I'll suggest a play on the over in this one. Take the over.

*4 Star NFL Patriots/Giants MONEY* The New England Patriots offense has been a well-oiled machine all year. There's no reason to believe that New York can do anything to slow them down here. The Giants secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Tom Brady obviously has all the ability and all the weapons necessary to expose that weakness. 

Much has been made of the Patriots willingness to score as much as possible here because of their losses to the Giants in the past. I think that's something that helps the over even more than the side here. The Patriots secondary hasn't been tested by very many good passing games, and the Giants passing attack has been very good this year. Eli Manning is really throwing the ball well. 

I expect a lot of scoring from both sides in this game. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 November games. The over is 4-0 in their last on turf. The over is 4-0 in the Pats last 4 during week 10 of the season. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Oakland Raiders offense is far better this year than they have been in the past. The running game has been far better than anyone thought it would be, and Derek Carr has been amazing. Amari Cooper really helps this team a lot because of his playmaking abilities on the outside.

Minnesota's ground game is likely to get going against an Oakland defense that has been bad this year. Pittsburgh ran the ball at will against Oakland last week. Bridgewater has been cleared to play, and I think he can have some big plays in play action passing here thanks to the running game and its success.

Rain is expected here, but I still expect enough big plays to get this one over the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Rams and the Chicago Bears have both struggled on offense this year. The Rams have a very limited playbook, and Nick Foles hasn't been good at all in this offense. While Jay Cutler has been improved this year, he faces a great defensive line that will put a bunch of pressure on him in this game. Cutler isn't likely to pass this test well. This Rams defense is a whole different animal than taking on San Diego.

The Rams rushing attack is clearly very good, but their drives use up a lot of time. St. Louis doesn't look to snap it quickly at all, and the Rams will face a lot of people in the box in this game. I don't see many big plays on either side.

The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 10 overall. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. The under is 7-1 in the Bears last 8 after gaining 250 yards or more through the air last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Broncos/Colts Totals CASH* The Indianapolis Colts offense has struggled to get going all year. Andrew Luck has been in a funk since coming back. He looked good late in the game at Carolina, but I think that was more about Carolina's defense getting into the prevent too early than anything else.

This Denver defense is scary good. They have the best pass rush in the NFL by a wide margin. They are solid against the run (Indianapolis has a poor running game). Denver also has a tremendous secondary. They are clearly the best defensive unit in the league.

Denver's offense looked better last week, but I'm still not convinced on this unit. The Broncos offensive numbers for the year are really bad. Indianapolis needs this game and they should bring a lot of intensity. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. Jameis Winston started out poorly in the NFL, but he has looked solid of late. The New York Giants pass defense is currently ranked dead last in the league. They made Drew Brees look like the best quarterback of all time last weekend. Brees is very good, but he isn't that good, especially with questionable weapons around him. Tampa Bay's defense has given up a bunch of yards in their last couple games vs. Washington and Atlanta. New York's passing game has been good, and Eli Manning has been sharp overall this year. I see both teams putting up quite a few here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers defense has been really good at home this year. Their splits home vs. away are remarkable. The Atlanta Falcons offense has been weaker in recent weeks. San Francisco's defense did a really nice job against Green Bay when they came to the Bay Area a few weeks ago. 

Colin Kaepernick has been benched and Blaine Gabbert is now the starter for the Niners. Kaepernick deserved to be benched with the way he had been playing, but does anyone really think Gabbert is the answer? Gabbert has been even worse than Kaepernick in his career, and Gabbert isn't likely to look good against an improving Falcons defense. Atlanta brought in a new head coach that would focus on defense, and it is working out for them.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Falcons last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 4-0 in the Niners last 4 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Oakland Raiders have been flying high in recent weeks. They are coming off two impressive wins. One was over the Chargers on the road and another over the Jets. Derek Carr is definitely playing extremely well right now, but this Oakland defense is extremely weak in the secondary.

I won't be surprised if Oakland ends the year with the worst pass defense in the league by the numbers. Right now they are second worst. Big Ben was a little rusty in week one back, but that was against a good Bengals secondary. Things should be a lot easier this week for Pittsburgh.

While I think Oakland is much better this year, I don't believe they are as good as most think they are right now. Pittsburgh needs a bounce back win, and they should get it here.

Oakland is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 following a win. Pittsburgh is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Month* The Oakland Raiders offense has been amazing. Derek Carr is playing exceptionally well. It's amazing what he has been able to do with some extra weapons around him. Everyone knows that Amari Cooper has been very good in his rookie year, but the Oakland running game has also been better than most people realize. Murray has been a good back for Oakland. 

Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss where they lost at home to Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger struggled in his first game back from an injury. Big Ben is one of the best quarterbacks in this league though, and I see a great bounce back opportunity for him here. Oakland's secondary has been abused on a regular basis. Only the Giants secondary has worse numbers than Oakland. With Big Ben and his impressive pass catchers, Oakland is going to have a rough time again in pass defense.

Both teams should have plenty of scoring chances throughout this game. The over is 5-0 in the Raiders last 5 in Week 9. The over is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 vs. the AFC. Take the over big! 

*3 Star Seahawks/Cowboys Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks defense is better than they have shown so far this year. This is a crucial game for the Seahawks as they look to enter their bye week at 4-4 on the season. The Dallas offense isn't very good with Cassel at quarterback. Dez Bryant's back here, but the Seattle secondary is one of the better units in the NFL and they should be fine against him.

Seattle's offensive line has had major problems this year. Dallas has a great pass rush and I think that will give Seattle a bunch of issues here. Russell Wilson has been sacked more than any other quarterback so far this year. Look for him to be on the run trying to get away from this elite Cowboys defensive line. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New York Jets are a good team this year. New York has outgained every opponent they have played thus far. Oakland is certainly a much improved team, but the Raiders haven't yet shown they can consistently be at the top of their game. No one has been able to run the ball with much success against the Jets. Oakland's running game is subpar. Derek Carr has been good this year, but I see the Jets corners giving him problems in this game. This is an opportunistic group that should be able to grab a pick or two.

Offensively, the Jets running game is tremendous. The Raiders front seven is no better than mediocre. The Jets passing game is much better this year than it has been the past couple seasons.

Oakland is coming off a huge win at San Diego, and they are feeling pretty good about themselves. That's typically the time to fade a young team like this one. The Jets played well in a loss to New England last week, and I think they come in here with the right mindset. Oakland is better than they have been, but the Jets are the much more complete team.

The Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing last game. The Jets are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. the AFC. A 14-0 angle. Take the Jets. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Chicago Bears had a bye week to prepare for this game, and that helped the team in a huge way. Chicago has been banged up in a major way this year. The Bears are finally getting healthy. The defense ranks in the top ten in the NFL right now. The offense is slowly improving in their new system. Most importantly for me is the fact that Minnesota has yet to prove they can win on the road. They won at Detroit last week after the Lions imploded after a fast start in that game. Minnesota has lost their lost six straight games at Soldier Field. 

The Bears may not be a good team right now, but I don't think they are bad either. Minnesota still has a lot to prove. The Vikings rank dead least in the NFL in total offense. Grab the home underdog in this one. Take Chicago. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles meet in primetime. Carolina is unbeaten and Philadelphia is playing better of late. What's making them turn things around? It's not the offense. It's been the Eagles defense, which is still being severely underrated in my opinion. The Eagles have been shutting down some good offenses of late, and I'm not convinced this Carolina offense is good. Cam Newton doesn't have enough weapons on the outside for this offense to beat a good defense consistently. Carolina is up against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. 

Sam Bradford still looks terrible in this Philly offense and the Panthers run defense should make Philadelphia work very hard for every yard they get on the ground. I see both teams settling for field goals throughout. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off a bye week and this team has to come into this game with a lot of confidence. Washington has found ways to lose games this year with Kirk Cousins seemingly turning it over at the worst times all the time. Jameis Winston has looked solid in most games since a bad opener. Tampa Bay's defense is much improved from a year ago. Washington's Jay Gruden isn't a very good coach, and I wonder if he won't be fired soon. In a game that should be close all the way, these points are the way to go.

Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog in the first game of a back to back road scheduling spot following a straight up win. The Redskins are 0-6 ATS at home off back to back road games. Even more telling, Washington is 5-24-2 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 36-5 angle. Take Tampa Bay. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New England Patriots are playing like the best team in the NFL right now, but I still don't believe they should be eight point favorites here against a high quality Jets team. It seems like the oddsmakers aren't trusting this Jets team yet. Todd Bowles has done a tremendous job with this team. He's an upgrade from Rex Ryan, and the Jets offense is far better than it has been in recent years. Ryan Fitzpatrick is an upgrade from Geno Smith, and the Jets offensive line is dominating right now. The Jets have the best corners in the NFL. If anyone in the league is going to slow down the Patriots, it should be the Jets.

New England is off an emotional win at Indianapolis in a game that they clearly wanted badly, so I believe New York is in the better spot here. 

The Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. the AFC. The Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 during week 7. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 ATS last 4 vs. the AFC East. They are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 after giving up 250 yards or less last game. The Jets are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. A 35-0 angle. Take the Jets. 

*3 Star NFL Home Underdog Play* The Minnesota Vikings running game is their only real offense right now. There's no doubt that Adrian Peterson is amazing and he'll get his yards here, but Detroit's play of late suggests they are better than their record. I've also been keeping a close eye on the line movement here. The shift toward the Lions with the public backing the Vikings suggests Detroit is a sharp money play. This is the type of play that can be hard to make, but in the long run you'll be ahead if you make these plays every time. Minnesota is a different team on the road and Detroit gets revenge from their early season meeting. Take Detroit. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Steelers will likely go with Landry Jones here. They moved Tyler Murphy to active at QB which suggests that Big Ben will probably not play here. With Jones as the expected signal caller, I think the Steelers do a lot of running the football. Kansas City always tries to run the football a lot because their passing game is so poor. Jeremy Maclin is dinged up which hurts the passing game even more. Pittsburgh's defense has given up a lot of yards through the air, but they are very good against the run. Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs just don't have offensive weapons. Both teams rank in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of pace of play. 

The under is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up more than 350 total yards of offense. The under is 6-0-1 in the Steelers last 7 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AFC. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Patriots/Colts Sunday Night CASH* The New England Patriots offense has been unstoppable this year. Do you really think the Patriots are going to want to let off the gas against the Indianapolis Colts? Remember, this is the team that started the whole Deflategate issues after their loss in the playoffs. New England should be out for blood here. Tom Brady and this Patriots offense are clearly capable of putting up a huge number here.

At the same time, Andrew Luck is expected back for the Colts, and the New England defense has looked shaky against good offenses this year. The Patriots secondary is a question mark for me. I think the Colts can put up plenty of points in this one as well.

I think there's a good chance this game gets into the 60's. With the line this low, I see a lot of value on the over.

The over is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks offense just hasn't been able to get going this year. Even in last week's game in Cincinnati, Seattle only put up 17 points on offense. They got 7 of their points from a defensive touchdown. Here, they'll take on a Carolina Panthers defense that is elite. Luke Kuechly is back for Carolina, and that is huge for this team. Carolina is very good at stopping the run to start with, and with Kuechly they'll be even better.

Seattle has no rhythm in the passing game. The Seahawks have to run it to be successful, but Marshawn Lynch is still banged up. Lynch will likely play here, but he is less than 100 percent, and he's up against a great defense.

Cam Newton has been very good so far this year, but Carolina hasn't played a defense even close to as good as the Seahawks. I think Seattle shuts down the Panthers running game here and forces them to beat them through the air, which I don't think they can do. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Denver Broncos are a team I've looked to play the under with as much as possible, and I'm going to keep doing it here. Denver's defense is arguably the best in the NFL. They have been solid against the run and spectacularly against the pass. Cleveland's offensive line should have a lot of trouble with this Denver defensive front. 

Peyton Manning hasn't been sharp at all this year, and the Browns secondary is pretty good even without Joe Haden in the lineup. Another very important factor for this game is the weather. The temperature is expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of some sprinkles during the game and a 10 to 15 mph wind. That isn't good weather for the offenses at all.

Look for a close game where field goals are more common than touchdowns. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Minnesota Vikings didn't look good at all in week one against San Francisco, and I think the perception of this team is still too low because of that poor showing. Minnesota has played well since that game, and the Vikings had a bye week to get ready for this game. 

Kansas City has been a big disappointment this year, and I have to wonder how things will get better for the Chiefs now that they are without Jamaal Charles for the year. Kansas City is a team that lacks playmakers on offense to start with, and Charles is really their only consistent playmaker. Now, they have to rely much more heavily on a very shaky Alex Smith and the passing game.

I think Coach Zimmer will have Minnesota ready to play, and I think the Vikings win by a touchdown or more. 

Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. The Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 14-1 angle. Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs both have strong defenses. Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater are both what I consider to be game managers. Adrian Peterson is obviously a game breaker for the Vikings, but the Chiefs are without their game breaker in Jamaal Charles.

Both of these teams run the football a lot, so we'll see a lot of running clock in this game. The defenses are likely to dare the quarterbacks to beat them, and I don't think it will happen very often. Without Charles, the Chiefs defense becomes one of the worst in the NFL. 

The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in October. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The San Francisco 49ers defense looked really bad at Pittsburgh in week two. Still, remember that was an awful spot for the 49ers after a late Monday night game and then playing in the Eastern time zone with an early start time on Sunday. Other than that game, the 49ers defense has been a little better than league average. The Niners defense should be able to at least slow down the Giants in this one.

Colin Kaepernick has been awful this year, and San Francisco really needs to be able to run the ball to be able to be successful on offense. Who is the number one rushing defense in the NFL? The New York Giants. The Giants are allowing less than 70 yards per game on the ground. Look for the Giants defense to do a good job slowing down the Niners rushing attack. That means Kaepernick has to beat them with his arm. I don't think that will happen.

The under is 21-8-2 in the 49ers last 31 games on turf. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Arizona Cardinals started 3-0 before dropping their last game. Arizona outplayed St. Louis last week, but they couldn't convert in the red zone, and turnovers cost them as well. The Detroit Lions were less than a yard away from likely winning in Seattle last weekend. The way they lost was particularly tough to take with the fumble and the missed call by the officials on the batted ball. Detroit isn't going to get to the playoffs, and I have to think it will be hard for them to get up for this game. 

The Lions have a short week of prep for this one. They were on the West Coast late Monday night and now play a good Arizona team on Sunday here. The Lions aren't as good as the Cardinals to start with, and with the scheduling spot and the emotions of losing the way they did last week, I'm taking Arizona.

Arizona is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing 15 points or less. A 14-1 angle. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Chicago Bears picked up a win at home over the Oakland Raiders last week. Does that make me any higher on the Bears? No. The Bears should win a game like that. Oakland was coming off a very rare road win and fell apart late in the game. The Raiders are improved, but they still aren't a good team. Kansas City comes into this game at 1-3, and the Chiefs absolutely have to have this game. Kansas City is a good team, and they have played a brutal schedule thus far. Here's their chance to break out of a slump in a big way. 

Jay Cutler has never been very good with pressure on him, and Kansas City will bring the heat in this one. Cutler's Bears are 4-14-1 ATS after winning a game while their opponent is coming off a double digit loss. Another nice statistic here, since 1980 1-3 NFL home favorites coming off 3 straight losses facing an opponent off a win are an impressive 10-1-1 ATS.

The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday's Best Bet* The Denver Broncos are not the same team they have been in the past. Denver is a defensive juggernaut this year. This team is stacked with talent on the defensive side of the ball. They can get after the quarterback as well as anyone in the league, and they have a good amount of run stuffers as well. Minnesota's defense is a unit I believe will continue to improve. Mike Zimmer is a great defensive mind, and I don't see his teams having too much trouble on defense.

Peyton Manning is clearly regressing at this point in his career and Teddy Bridgewater has struggled in the past when pressured. I think both quarterbacks will be under pressure in this one. Denver is no longer the fast paced offense they used to be, and Minnesota is going to run the football a lot here.

The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or more last game. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. A 13-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* I'll admit that Andrew Luck now being listed as questionable is certainly a concern here. He was listed as probable when I initially made this selection. I still do believe it's more likely that he will play. The positive for the Colts is they do have a solid backup compared to some other teams in the league. Additionally, this Jacksonville defense isn't good, and they'll give up a lot of points often this year. On the other hand, I believe the Jacksonville offense is much better than it has been in previous years. Yeldon gives them a playmaker at running back and Blake Bortles is progressing well at the quarterback spot. Both of these teams can play with tempo as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Buffalo Bills are coming off a great win at Miami last week. Buffalo has looked really good in two games so far this year and really bad in the other. The thing about Buffalo in recent years is they haven't been good at building on their momentum. Buffalo is 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games following an ATS win. Even worse, they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 following a straight up win. The New York Giants made some key errors that have them only 1-2 now, but this team has actually played well for the majority of the season. Eli Manning has been sharp and the Giants defense has looked great. 

Buffalo will be without LaSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins in this one. That's big because those are two big playmakers who take pressure off Tyrod Taylor. The Bills defense is very good, but I'm not convinced about this offense yet.

The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards last game. They are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 on turf. The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 17-2 winning trend. Take the Giants. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Denver Broncos are a totally different team than they have been in recent years. Gone is the fast paced offense where they are going to air it out constantly. Denver is slowing the game down and winning with their defense. The Broncos have assembled a tremendous defense. I believe Denver has one of the five best defenses in the NFL. Peyton Manning isn't a bad quarterback now, but he's clearly not what he used to be. Detroit's offense has more question marks now, and Matt Stafford will play through pain in this one. Look for Denver's pass rush to really bother him in this one. The under is 16-6 in the Lions last 22 games. The public taking the over (as normal, especially for a primetime game) has given us a nice value play. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Baltimore Ravens are in a must win situation here. They have started 0-2 after two very tough losses on the road. They return home, a place where they have had a bunch of success in the past. Cincinnati is 2-0 and the Bengals are feeling good about themselves. Andy Dalton has looked better so far this year, but a bad showing from Dalton is going to happen soon. The guy just isn't reliable at quarterback. How has he done against Baltimore in his career? The Ravens have intercepted him 12 times, which is more than any other team in the NFL. The Bengals defense isn't what they were a couple years ago with Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator. Baltimore's offense should be able to get going here.

John Harbaugh is a very good coach, and Baltimore knows how important this game is. This number is surprisingly low, and I believe it is an overreaction to how these teams have played in week one and two. Take Baltimore. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars meet on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville isn't a good team this year, but I do believe they are a much improved team. Blake Bortles and this passing game are improving quickly. Why is that important? Because as tremendous as the Patriots offense is, New England has a lot of holes in the secondary, and I do think the Jaguars can put up some points here. New England's offense has looked like a well-oiled machine this year and the Patriots are unlikely to be slowed down by the Jags defense here. The over is 35-16 in the Patriots last 51 games. Jacksonville has been picking up the tempo and playing quickly, especially when behind. They should be behind throughout in this one, and I think both teams get plenty of scoring chances here. Take the over. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Seattle Seahawks defense was surprisingly bad last week. Chancellor was a key loss, but I didn't think the Rams offense would do as much as they did last week. The Green Bay Packers have obviously had this game circled for a long time. That playoff loss in Seattle was absolutely brutal. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers haven't forgotten that game, and this should be as motivated as you will ever see an NFL team in a regular season game. Seattle losing last week initially kept me hesitant to play this game, but at only a field goal I can't pass on this one. The Seahawks secondary isn't nearly as good as they were last year. Seattle also has offensive line issues far worse than they had at any time last season. The Packers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 home games. Green Bay gets some revenge in the spotlight on Sunday night. Take Green Bay. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Miami Dolphins offense did very little last week in Washington. In fact, it was a punt return TD that was the key play for the Dolphins in that win. Jacksonville's offense was awful last week against the Panthers. The Jaguars offensive front gave up five sacks in that game, and the Dolphins defensive line is going to have pressure on Blake Bortles all day in this one. Suh is a huge addition to this defensive line and Cameron Wake is still an elite pass rusher for Miami. Jacksonville's defense is better than a year ago. Miami lacks big playmakers on offense. The Dolphins aren't a big play team, rather they will generally have slow and methodical drives that eat up a bunch of time. I think both defenses play well in a game where I think both teams have to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. 

The under is 37-17 in Miami's last 54 road games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Miami. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a tremendous spot here and the San Francisco 49ers couldn't be in a worse spot. San Francisco surprised a lot of people, myself included, with an impressive win late Monday night at home over Minnesota. The 49ers were done no favors by the schedule makers here. They must play a game at 10 am their time on Sunday after playing late on Monday night. 

On the other hand, Pittsburgh has 10 days between games. The Steelers offense looked great at New England, they just couldn't finish their drives. I think this is the perfect opportunity for them to get on track. This is a classic overreaction from the oddsmakers and the betting public to one good game from San Francisco. The Niners are still down from last year, and the Steelers have the type of team that could win the AFC North.

Lay the points with the Steelers here. Take Pittsburgh. 

*3 Star NFL Eagles/Falcons Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles fast pace offense is well documented. Atlanta's defense will improve in their new scheme, but it is going to take time. Philadelphia's offense is going to be a really tough test in week one. Bradford looked great in the Chip Kelly system in the preseason, and should do well against a questionable Atlanta secondary. The Eagles defense wasn't very good last year, and I don't think they'll be very good this year either. Matt Ryan has been amazing in the dome in his career, and I think he has a big game here. He has some new weapons, and I think Tevin Coleman will prove to be a very good player in this system. 

The over is 6-1 in the Falcons last 7 September games. The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 Monday night games. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Washington Redskins have a history of starting slowly, and I don't see any reason to expect anything less than another slow start from them this year. There's all sorts of team chemistry problems here. Kirk Cousins still has to prove he can be good in the regular season. The Miami Dolphins defense got a lot better in the offseason, and with Ryan Tannehill's progression throughout the course of last year, I think this Miami offense could be pretty good this year. Miller is an underrated back who does a lot of things well. The better defense, the better offense, and the team with more confidence. Lay the points. Take Miami. 

*3 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Kansas City Chiefs have had a lot of regular season success the last couple years, and I believe they made their team better in the offseason. Kansas City has a great runner in Jamaal Charles. Charles is one of the best game breakers in the NFL. The Chiefs defense got better in the offseason, and they were already very good. Marcus Peters will be very good at the corner spot, and Eric Berry is back to provide more depth in the secondary. Kansas City has an elite pass rush, and the Houston offensive line is susceptible. Houston's defense is very good, but the Chiefs defense doesn't get the credit it deserves. Alex Smith might not be fabulous, but he is certainly better than Hoyer. Kansas City has been great on the road in the past couple years as well. Houston is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. Take Kansas City. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Best Bet* The Cleveland Browns offense is laughable, but their defense is very solid. You could say the same thing about the New York Jets. New York's defense got a lot better in the offseason. The Jets front seven was tremendous last year, but the secondary was a problem. What did the Jets do in the offseason? They grabbed Revis and Cromartie to give themselves a good secondary again. The Jets defensive front is still one of the best in the league. How is Cleveland going to do anything on offense here? The weather looks to be less than ideal for this game as well. On the other side, the Jets have more questions than ever on the offensive side of the ball. Look for both teams to struggle to punch the ball into the end zone here. Low scoring all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Opening Night KNOCKOUT* It's Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. These are definitely two of the best quarterbacks in the game, and both of these guys should be ready to go. The Patriots have had all kinds of controversies around them in the offseason. If it were another team, I might be concerned about where there mind would be, but New England has been here before and they have shown they are great at focusing on the task at hand. In my estimation, both of these defenses got a little weaker in the offseason. New England lost Wilfork and Revis, so they certainly are weaker. Pittsburgh lost a really good defensive coordinator in Lebeau. Both quarterbacks should have plenty of open receivers. The over is 32-13 in the Patriots last 45 home games. Look for plenty of offensive fireworks in the NFL season opener. Take the over. 

*3 Star Super Bowl RED HOT CASH* The current New England Patriots may be seeing their window close, and I think they know it. Tom Brady isn't getting any younger, and as good as the Patriots have been for a very long time, they haven't won a Super Bowl since 2004. They come into this one with a ton of motivation. I respect Pete Carroll, but I believe the Patriots do have a coaching advantage here with Belichick on the sideline. His innovative schemes are very tough to slow down.

While Seattle's defense has been nothing short of amazing this year, they are playing against an excellent New England offense here. Rob Gronkowski is arguably the toughest guy in the NFL to defend, and Seattle's defense has had some problems stopping good tight ends this year. Brandon LaFell is an underrated weapon on the outside as well, and I see him having a big role in this game.

New England's defense is underrated by most. The Patriots are particularly good at stopping the run, and Seattle isn't the type of team that can kill you consistently through the air. I think this game will be close, and I think it will be the Patriots that make the key plays in the fourth quarter and win. Take New England.

*Bonus 1 star prop bet- Brandon LaFell over 50.5 receiving yards- With Rob Gronkowski getting so much attention, LaFell will find more open spots on the field. Tom Brady targeted LaFell 119 times this year, and LaFell is a tall and talented wideout who could easily have a breakout game here. Over 50.5 receiving yards.*

*3 Star NFC Championship Totals CASH* The Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers meet with the winner heading to the Super Bowl in a couple weeks. Seattle's defense has been playing amazing down the stretch, but they actually weren't as good last week. I think that motivates them even more and has them ready to go last week. Remember, before last week this group had allowed 7 points or less to five of their last six opponents. That's a ridiculous run, and with the home crowd behind them this defense is scary good. 

There's no doubt that Aaron Rodgers is far less than 100% here. Rodgers hobbled all through the Packers win against Dallas, and the Packers offense wasn't the same. Expect more runs for Lacey here, but the Seahawks run defense is very good. Seattle's offense is good, but they aren't spectacular. The Seahawks haven't been driving the ball down the field consistently, rather it has been about big plays for them.

The weather will be a major factor in this game. Heavy rain is expected as well as winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour. While most pay attention to the rain, the wind is the bigger factor to watch. Both passing games will struggle to cope with that kind of wind, and that should mean a lot more running of the football and it gives the defense an edge.

With Rodgers hobbling and the nasty weather in Seattle, the under is the way I'll go here. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Seattle Seahawks defense is the best in the league, and it's not even close. Seattle doesn't have a weakness on defense. This Seahawks defense is tremendous against both the run and the pass. They are playing their best football down the stretch. Seattle has held five of their last six opponents to seven points or less! Carolina's offense hasn't been consistent this year, and I don't trust Cam Newton to play well in Seattle against a defense this talented. 

The Panthers defense was ranked number one in the NFL in total defense most of last year. They started this year struggling badly, but Carolina's defense has really picked up their play of late. In their last 4 games they are allowing only 10.75 points per game. Seattle's offense is good, but they aren't excellent. They have been held down by several good defenses this year.

Both teams love to run the football, so the clock should keep ticking away in this one. This total is set low, but it's certainly not ridiculously low. I think there's a good chance both offenses struggle to find the end zone much at all in this game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals meet in the WildCard round of the NFL playoffs. Andy Dalton hasn't won a playoff game yet, and he probably won't win one here either. I don't trust Dalton a bit to start with based on his history in big games, and now that A.J. Green has been declared out for this one, the Bengals offense will have to rely on the ground game. Jeremy Hill has been very good, and Cincinnati will likely get some yards on the ground here, but it's tough to be one-dimensional in the NFL. The Colts shutout the Bengals earlier this year, and you have to think they'll be prepared for a heavy dose of the ground game here. Andrew Luck is a clutch quarterback, but his supporting cast isn't very good. The Bengals defense has been better late in the year, and they should hold their own.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in the Colts last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Indianapolis between these two teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Atlanta Falcons haven't impressed me this year. Atlanta is a team that is poorly coached, and the Falcons haven't improved even close to as much as this Carolina Panthers team has. Atlanta took advantage of a pathetic New Orleans team last week and the Falcons get a home game here. Carolina's running game has quietly been getting healthy (Stewart was back last week) and they are performing at a high level right now. The Panthers definitely have the better defense in this game. Atlanta's defense has given up yards in big amounts against just about everyone this year. Cam Newton is showing some impressive toughness late in the year. The Panthers defense should be the difference. I think the Panthers win outright. Take Carolina. 

*3 Star NFL Home Field CASH* The Seattle Seahawks badly want home field advantage all through the playoffs. Why wouldn't they? Seattle has the best home field advantage in the NFL, and it is going to be extremely tough for anyone to go to Seattle and win. St. Louis was disappointing in a home loss to New York last week, and the Rams don't have anything to play for in this game. Also keep in mind that St. Louis upset the Seahawks earlier this year in a game that was a bit of a fluke. Seattle dominated the game but came up just short on the scoreboard. Seattle gets their revenge at home here. The Seahawks are playing some terrific football right now. Take Seattle. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers were beaten badly at Detroit earlier this year. This is their chance for revenge. There is a lot on the line in this game. These two teams are tied for the top spot in the NFC North. The winner of this game is likely to get the number two spot in the NFC playoff standings and get a bye week in the playoffs. Green Bay is 5-1-1 ATS at home this year, and their one non-cover was against Atlanta when the Packers simply let off the gas too early. I don't think that will be a problem here. Green Bay isn't going to want to leave anything to doubt. The Lions are a dome team, and I think most will be surprised with how well the Packers defense does against them in this contest.

Detroit is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Green Bay is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 15 points or less. They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 30-0 angle. Take Green Bay. 

*3 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The St. Louis Rams defense has impressed me all year long. The front seven does a great job pressuring the quarterback. Eli Manning has had trouble with holding onto the ball too long, and that won't work Sunday against this St. Louis defense. The Rams secondary is athletic and the Giants wideouts won't have as many mismatches as they normally do when they go deep. New York's defense has shown a lot of pride in recent weeks. St. Louis still has a lot of issues on the offensive side of the football. The Rams aren't very good there, and it's tough for them to sustain drives. The line movement has been toward the under here, and I think that line move is definitely justified. Look for a low scoring battle here.

The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 December games. The under is 5-0 in the Rams last 5 after gaining 90 yards rushing or less last game. The under is 22-5-1 in the Rams last 28 December games. A 32-5 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins are struggling down the stretch. Miami has had a very difficult schedule through the middle to late portion of the season, and it seems that has worn the team down. Their last two outings have been really ugly. Minnesota is battling to the end with Coach Mike Zimmer firing up his team. The Vikings had a real shot to beat the Lions outright last week. Minnesota's defense is much improved this year thanks to Zimmer showing up, and I think Miami is going to have trouble moving the football on this group. Teddy Bridgewater has been getting better in recent weeks, and he goes home to put on a show in this game. Miami knows they won't make the playoffs, and I think they are far more likely to give up than the Vikings. 

The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 in December. A 13-0 angle. Take Minnesota. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens badly need to win this game. They are in the thick of the playoff race in the stacked AFC North. Baltimore has a home game against a struggling Browns team next week, so if they can win this game, their chances of making the playoffs are extremely good. This is a proud franchise that has a lot of talent and balance on both sides of the football. Houston obviously has a good defense and a star in J.J. Watt, but the Texans offense is on their fourth quarterback now. The Ravens should get plenty of heat on Keenum and make it a long day for him. Baltimore has more to play for, and I expect a strong effort from the road team here. Take Baltimore. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Chargers defense is solid. They showed what they are made of in their loss to the Patriots last week. San Diego's defense wasn't the reason they lost that game. Rather, it was Phillip Rivers and the offense that couldn't get going. The San Diego offense has been really inconsistent of late, and Denver's defense is much improved from last year. I expect the Broncos pass rush to do a good job getting after Rivers in this one. Denver is dinged up offensively right now, and the Chargers have done a relatively good job against this Broncos offense in the past couple years. I expect a competitive game where touchdowns are tough to come by. This line is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers come into this one on a really nice run. I think the Packers are a very good team, but I also believe this is a difficult spot for them. Buffalo's defense is far better than most realize. The Bills defense showed how good they are last week with their performance against Peyton Manning and the Broncos. Buffalo has a great defensive front that can create pressure without sending the blitz all that often. The secondary is also very good. Green Bay's defense has struggled this year, but Buffalo's offense has become one-dimensional and that should make things easier on them. It is expected to be a bit breezy for this one with a bit of drizzle through the game. Weather can be a major factor in games played at Buffalo. I like the defenses to control this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Bills last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Bills last 5 overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bills last 6 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play of the Month* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has been amazing this year. Before the season there were a lot of questions about this unit, but they have answered them emphatically thus far. Pittsburgh is averaging 427 yards per game so far this year, which easily outpaces the 391.1 per game that is the team record set back in 1979. The Steelers have scored 30 points or more in seven games this year. They are averaging 6.2 yards per play which is second best in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons offense is always tough to stop in the dome. Matt Ryan has elite receivers in Jones and White. Jones is listed as questionable this weekend, but even if he doesn't go, the Falcons have a very good third option in Harry Douglas.

Pittsburgh's defense has only 24 sacks this year. They are putting a lot of pressure on the secondary, and their secondary just isn't very good. Matt Ryan should be able to pick apart this group. At the same time, the Falcons defense isn't good at all against the run or the pass. Pittsburgh should move the ball at will. I think there will be a lot of offense in this one. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The San Diego Chargers and New England Patriots meet in what should be a terrific game Sunday night. New England is coming off a loss, and the Patriots are really tough to beat following a loss. On the other hand, San Diego has played well in recent years as an underdog and they are coming off a momentum-building win at Baltimore. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense was just a bit off last week. Before last week, the Patriots had scored 34 points or more in four straight games. San Diego has been having some issues in the secondary in recent weeks, and that should be a problem here. The Chargers have some great pass catchers and Antonio Gates is a tough matchup for the Patriots. Look for San Diego to move the ball well through the air in this game. 

The over is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 during week 14. The over is 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 after gaining less than 90 yards rushing last game. The over is 4-1 in the Patriots last 5 December games. A 13-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers have made a name for themselves in the past few years as strong defensive teams. That was the case for many years, but it isn't the case this year. Both of these defenses are way down this season. Pittsburgh's defense has gotten too old, and Brett Keisel is now out for the season, so they lose a guy who has been one of the most productive players on their roster. Cincinnati's defense has taken a big step back this year too. I think the primary reason for that is Mike Zimmer leaving and taking the head coaching job at Minnesota. Zimmer is a defensive mastermind, and the Bengals miss him badly. The number here is set too low because of the past history of these teams. Both offenses have big play ability. 

The over is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 December games. The over is 6-0 in the Steelers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1 in the Steelers last 9 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. An 18-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Lions defense is still being underrated by many. This defense has proven week after week they are one of the very best in the NFL. Tampa Bay's defense has also proven on a consistent basis that they aren't any good. Tampa Bay put up only 13 points in each of their last two games, and that was against two subpar defenses. It gets much tougher here. I have been impressed with the fight in the Tampa Bay defense. This unit has gotten significantly better over the course of the season. I see a comfortable win for the Lions as their defense dominates.

The under is 6-0 in Tampa Bay's last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay's last 5 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after running for less than 90 yards last game. The under is 6-0 in the Lions last 6 after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the Lions last 4 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing last game. A 29-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Patriots/Packers Total DOMINATION* The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers get together in what should be a tremendous game late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers will be all the storylines, and you can't blame the media for headlining the game with those two. They are two of the very best at their position, and they are guys who usually rise to the occasion in games like this one. The New England offense has really impressed me in recent weeks. New England can do it through the air or on the ground. The offensive line is much improved too. Green Bay's defense is still a major question mark for me. The Packers offense was a little disappointing early this year, but they are firing on all cylinders now. Both of these teams play much at a much faster tempo than the league average, and that will lead to more possessions in this game. I see this as a back and forth type of game where both offenses have a bunch of big plays. 

The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 on grass. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 7-1 in the Packers last 8 overall. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Arizona Cardinals are still being doubted by a lot of people. Arizona is 9-2, but they are only favored here by 1.5 points against a Falcons team that is playing some bad football right now. Mike Smith cost this team a win last week, and I have to wonder how that sat in the locker room after last week's game. Atlanta hasn't won a game against anyone outside of the NFC South all year. The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league. Arizona's defense stops the run really well, and this front seven is great at getting after the quarterback. Matt Ryan is good when he he has time to throw, but he isn't very elusive. I don't think he'll have time to sit back and survey the field very much in this one. Arizona's defense is very good. I like the Cardinals to take care of business after last week's loss.

The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a loss. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards or less in their previous game. They are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a defense ranking in the bottom five in the league in total defense. Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 on turf. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after gaining more than 250 passing yards last game. A 35-0 angle. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The weather should be a major factor in this game. The forecast calls for an early high temperature of 15 degrees dropping to nine degrees by the end of the game. Carolina certainly isn't used to that kind of temperature, and I think that hurts their offense more than the defense. The wind is also going to play a major role here. The wind is expected to be about 20 miles per hour throughout this one, which should make both offenses hesitant to throw it. With a lot of running, we'll see the clock consistently moving. The defenses should be able to key in on the run after a while here too. Minnesota's defense is one of the most improved in the league under the guidance of Mike Zimmer. Look for a low scoring affair. Take the under. 

*4 Star Seahawks/49ers Thanksgiving CASH* The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a great win at home over Arizona. I've never doubted Seattle at home, but on the road they aren't the same team. They couldn't find a way to win at Kansas City last month, and this time they'll be in San Francisco against their hated rivals from the Bay Area. Both of these teams come in with a 7-4 record, and they have both been really inconsistent this year. One thing I fully expect in this one though is the 49ers best effort. San Francisco really hates this Seattle team, and the 49ers feel like they deserved to win that NFC title game last year. Instead, it was the Seahawks who won and went on to win the Super Bowl. You better believe the 49ers have been waiting for a measure of revenge. Seattle's defense isn't as dominant as it used to be, while this 49ers defense is excellent all the way around. Seattle's offensive line has some major issues right now, and the 49ers should expose those problems.

The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two teams. San Francisco is in a great spot here, and I think they win. Since it should be a close and low scoring game, I'm taking them on the moneyline at an affordable price. Take San Francisco. 

*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Tampa Bay Bucs and Chicago Bears meet at Soldier Field on Sunday afternoon. The conditions are going to be ugly for this one. There is a 100 percent chance of rain according to current forecasts, and the wind is expected to be 20 mph blowing off of Lake Michigan. Anyone who has been to Chicago knows that the winds can be very tough to deal with here. Both of these teams have been relying more on their passing attacks lately, but I don't expect those to work well in this weather. The field will be a total mess as well with heavy rain throughout. Neither of these offenses has proven to be all that good to start with, and with an ugly field and a heavy wind it will make it much tougher to score. 

The under is 4-0 in the Bucs last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 150 rushing yards or more last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games played on grass. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in November. A 16-0 angle. 

Look for a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles will meet late Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. The temperature will slide below 20 degrees as this game moves along. The tendency for the public is to think that cold weather means the game will finish under the posted total, but that hasn't proven true in the past ten years. Since 2004, 65 percent of games played at a temperature of 20 degrees or lower have finished over the posted total. Philadelphia plays with a very quick tempo and they'll get off a bunch of snaps. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense are now in full stride, and the Eagles secondary is still very vulnerable. Mark Sanchez is a nice fit in the Chip Kelly system and McCoy should have a good game here. I love both of these offenses and neither defense impresses me. 

The over is 4-0 in the Eagles last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games following a Monday nighter. The over is 4-0 in the Packers last 4 following a win. The over is 7-0 in the Packers last 7 following a win by 14 points or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL ATS Value Play* The Chicago Bears in a lot of trouble right now. Everyone keeps waiting on them to turn things around, and it just doesn't happen. Minnesota comes into this one well rested and healthy after having a bye week last weekend. Chicago was beat up by Green Bay at Lambeau on Sunday night. The Bears have chemistry problems and they still have a horrific defense. Teddy Bridgewater has impressed me thus far, and he should be able to make enough plays for the Vikings offense here. Minnesota did a great job hiring Mike Zimmer, and Zimmer is a terrific defensive mind. This Vikings defense will have plenty of wrinkles ready for Jay Cutler and the Bears offense. Look for them to force some turnovers. The Vikings have a good chance to win outright, so I'll grab the points. Take Minnesota. 

*3 NFL ATS Play of Week* The Kansas City Chiefs may be the most overlooked 6-3 team the NFL has seen in the past several years. It seems like the public just likes to assume that Kansas City is doing it with smoke and mirrors and they'll come back down to earth, but they continue to press on winning games. The public is backing Seattle in this one, but the line has moved significantly toward the Chiefs. That tells me this is a sharp money move, and I like backing a play like that. This is a great spot for Kansas City to prove they are for real. This is a really tough place to play for visitors, and the crowd will be rocking on Sunday afternoon. Seattle has covered on the road only once this year. The Seahawks defense hasn't been as dominant this year, while the Chiefs defense is playing great. Alex Smith takes care of the ball and helps his team win. This is a great chance for the Chiefs to make a statement. Take Kansas City. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Cardinals have outperformed expectations all season. I get the feeling that the oddsmakers still haven't caught up to how good this team truly is. Carson Palmer is playing much better this year, and for the most part he has taken care of the ball. Arizona has a bunch of play makers on the outside that will be difficult for the Rams secondary to slow down. The Rams are coming off a win at San Francisco, but the Rams were awfully fortunate to win that game. St. Louis did very little offensively in that game, and I don't trust young Austin Davis against this very good Arizona defense. The Cardinals are aggressive defensively, and they should force some Rams turnovers in this contest. Arizona continues to make a statement to the rest of the league.

Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a NFC foe. The Rams are 0-4 ATS following an ATS win. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team allowing 5.65 yards per play or more. A 21-0 angle. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Buffalo Bills had a bye week last week. The defense has gotten healthier and they should be ready for a strong effort. Buffalo is eighth in the NFL in total defense, and I consider this Bills defense one of the most underrated units in the NFL. On offense, Buffalo is totally one-dimensional now without Spiller or Jackson in the backfield. Kyle Orton isn't a bad quarterback, but he's certainly not a special one either. The Chiefs have the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL, and Kansas City is going to be ready for the throw here. The Chiefs offense is far from spectacular, and they just do what they have to do to squeak out wins. Kansas City will run the ball a lot here, which keeps the clock moving. Buffalo's defensive front is very strong. These defenses are both excellent. Last year's game finished at 36, and another game in the high 30's is what I see here.

The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs last 4 games. The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs last 7 November games. The under is 4-1 in the Bills last 5 home games. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins are definitely coming off an impressive win last weekend against San Diego, but I believe the oddsmakers have put a little too much stock in that win. San Diego was in a really bad situational spot there. Miami really put it to San Diego, but now they go on the road to face a terrific Lions defense. Detroit's front four are pressuring the quarterback really well this year, and Tannehill hasn't shown to be a quality player when under pressure throughout the game. Also important to note is Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are expected back in the lineup for the Lions. It's obvious that these two make the Lions a much much better offense. I'm not sure the Dolphins secondary has anyone who can handle Johnson. Stafford has been playing well of late, and the Lions come into this one well rested. This is a short price on a pretty impressive Detroit team that has finally gotten healthy. Take Detroit here. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense that was a mess when these two teams met earlier this year is now firing on all cylinders. Big Ben and his solid group of wide receivers will make plenty of plays in this one. The Steelers running game has been better than expected this year as well. Joe Flacco is playing some terrific football of late, and the Ravens offense is playing at a different pace now than they have in the past. Baltimore ranks sixth in the NFL in tempo, so they are getting off a lot of snaps. I see value in this number because of the past history of these teams. When you think of Steelers vs. Ravens you think defense and lots of hard hits. These defenses aren't what they used to be, and both of the offenses are better. The winner of this game is going to have to put up a solid amount of points. 

The over is 4-0 in the Ravens last 4 games on grass. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Moneyline CASH* The Houston Texans offense hasn't impressed me this year. Philadelphia took a while to get going offensively, but they are playing well on that side of the ball right now. Nick Foles is forcing a few too many throws, but outside of turnovers the Eagles have moved it really well of late. Philadelphia really outplayed Arizona on the road last week and rolled up more than 500 yards of offense on a good Cardinals defense. Philadelphia's defense isn't particularly good, but they have been opportunistic. The Eagles also have a big advantage when it comes to special teams. The return of Darren Sproles in this game helps Philadelphia in a big way. Take the Eagles on the moneyline. 

*3 Star NFL Cardinals/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys aren't as good as their record would indicate. This defense still isn't any good. Their yards per play allowed is very similar to last year. Justin Durant being out is a huge hit to this defense too. The Arizona offense has lots of weapons and I've been impressed with Carson Palmer so far this year. He is spreading the ball around nicely. The Cowboys secondary will have trouble slowing this passing attack down. On offense, Dallas either has a banged up Tony Romo or Brandon Weeden. The Cardinals love to blitz, and based on the Redskins success blitzing, I think they'll get to the quarterback a few times on Sunday. Either Romo or Weeden is going to be in a difficult spot here. Arizona is the real deal, and I think they'll show the world that on Sunday. 

Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 during week nine. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Arizona. 

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The Dallas Cowboys are clearly a good team, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. They also aren't as good as this line would indicate. The Cowboys defense that has supposedly improved so drastically since last year is giving up almost exactly the same yards per play that they were last season. Washington has lost five games this year, but they have been outgained in only two games. The Redskins aren't a good team, but they aren't quite as bad as their record. RG3 might play in this one, but I'm counting on Colt McCoy to get most of the time here. I don't think McCoy is a long-term answer, but he should do fine against this poor Cowboys defense. Washington is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Dallas. The underdog is a whopping 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. This is a big rivalry game. Too many points. Take the underdog. Take Washington. 

*5 Star TOP NFL Play of the Month* The Green Bay Packers are a good team, but they haven't played like an elite team this year. Green Bay is 5-2 on the year, but they have won a lot of close games. They have a turnover margin of +10, so they are relying heavily on turnovers to win these games. That kind of statistic can't continue all year long. I've been disappointed with the Saints performance so far this year, but all four of their losses have come on the road. In 3 of those losses, they were ahead late and basically gave the game away. The Saints season isn't a total failure yet, but they absolutely have to win this game. New Orleans has been absolute money at home under Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The Saints are 17-1-1 ATS in their last 19 home games with Payton and Brees both active. The Saints aren't nearly as bad as their record, and this line is an extremely good value. Take New Orleans big! 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Cardinals secondary ranks second to last in the NFL in pass defense so far this year. With the offensive line starting to play better (and get healthy) Nick Foles' production should continue to improve in the passing game for Philadelphia. McCoy is too good of a runner to be completely shut down in the long run. The Eagles defense has been opportunistic, and they have created a bunch of scores on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's defense still isn't very good overall though, and the Eagles will have trouble slowing down this Arizona offense. The Eagles don't have the secondary to stop Carson Palmer and the Cardinals talented wide receivers. Both teams score plenty in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL EARLY Bird Special* This one is being played at 9:30 AM Eastern, so make sure you are ready for the early start. Atlanta just isn't a good team away from home. This game is being played in London, which obviously means Atlanta doesn't have the home field advantage in the Dome. Detroit is gaining momentum and they are becoming a confident bunch. The Lions defensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, and that's a major problem for Atlanta here. The Falcons have injuries all across their offensive line. Matt Ryan is playing behind a patchwork line, and Ryan isn't the type of quarterback to be able to keep plays alive with his feet. Detroit's defensive line is going to be in the backfield a bunch in this game. The Lions should have Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson is a game time decision. Atlanta's defense is one of the worst in the league and I expect the Lions to be able to move the ball consistently. Detroit keeps the momentum going and Atlanta struggles yet again. 

The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 during October. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 overall. Atlanta is also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 away from home during the first half of the season. A 15-0 angle. Take Detroit. 

*3 Star NFL Giants/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys are certainly a much improved team, but this line is a major overreaction. The Cowboys win over Seattle has caused a major adjustment and now the public is driving up this price way too fast. New York and Dallas have a major rivalry and the road team has done extremely well in the last few years when these two meet. Though Dallas won both meetings last year, the Giants actually outgained the Cowboys in each of those games. Keep in mind, this is still the same Cowboys team that needed overtime to beat the Texans at home earlier this month. The Giants were thumped last week so perception is low on them, but had been playing well before that and I expect Tom Couglin to prepare them well for this key NFC East game. Take advantage of this overreaction and grab the points with the underdog. Take the Giants. 

*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Indianapolis Colts continue to play better than oddsmakers expect. The Colts looked like a team with a lot of holes in the first couple games of the season, but I've been impressed by the improvement from this team in recent weeks. Andrew Luck is obviously a superstar at the quarterback position, but the players around him on offense are getting better. This offensive line is young, and early in the year they looked like a major problem spot, in the past couple weeks they have been solid. The Colts defense isn't a shutdown type unit, but they are opportunistic. Cincinnati's offense is good, but they aren't even close to as good now that they don't have A.J. Green or Marvin Jones on the outside here. Look for the Colts to key in on the running game of Cincinnati in this one. 

The Colts are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games with a total of 45-50 points. They are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games at home vs. a team averaging 24 yards or more per kick return. The Colts are 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A 28-0 angle. Take Indianapolis.