|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-29-23||Utah v. Oregon State -3.5||7-21||Win||100||71 h 52 m||Show|
Utah @ Oregon State 9:00 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State -3.5
Oregon State is coming off a 38-35 at #16 Washington State in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite. The loss dropped the #19 ranked Beavers season record to 3-1. It doesn’t get any easier this week versus #10 Utah (4-0). The Beavers are 18-10 SU in their last 28 at home. However, Oregon State is 14-1 in their previous 15 at home. That includes 5-0 SU&ATS as a conference favorite with an average victory margin of 19.8 points per game.
Any college football conference home favorite of 14.5 or less Like Oregon State that’s playing in Game 3 through 10 and they’re coming off a conference favorite SU loss in which they scored 35 points or fewer, and they won 24 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .362 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average margin of victory in those 15 contests came by an average of 21.0 points per game. Give me Oregon State minus points.
|09-23-23||Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3.5||17-14||Win||100||22 h 27 m||Show|
Ohio State @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Notre Dame +3.5
Notre Dame will be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s 21-10 loss at Ohio State. This time around they’re playing at home and with a huge difference in their quality of starting quarterback Sam Hartman compared to what they had under center a season ago. During Notre Dame’s 4-0 start, Hartman completed 71.1% of his passes for 1061 yards and 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions while also running for 2 scores as well. Notre Dame is 36-3 SU in their last 39 at home and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 2.5 or greater. Additionally, Notre Dame is 10-1 SU&ATS in their last 11 at home with a point-spread parameter of -9.5 to +5.5.
Any non-conference College Football undefeated home underdog of between 2.5 to 5.5 that’s coming off 4 or more consecutive SU wins, and their previous game was versus a non-conference opponent, versus an opponent like Ohio State that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1993 and with an average victory margin of 9.3 points per game. Give me Notre Dame plus points.
|09-23-23||Oregon State v. Washington State +3||35-38||Win||100||22 h 58 m||Show|
Oregon State @ Washington State 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Washington State +3.0
Washington State is coming off a 64-21 win over Northern Colorado. Both teams enter this matchup with a perfect 3-0 record. Washington State has won their last 4 meetings versus Oregon State when playing at home.
Any conference undefeated home team which is +3.0 to -3.0 like Washington State who’s playing after Game 3 of their season, and they allowed 33 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an undefeated opponent like Oregon State coming off a win by 7-points or more, resulted in those home teams going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2010. Those home teams were also 16-4 SU during those contests.
Any College Football home underdog of +3.0 to +6.0 with a win percentage of .800 or better like Washington State, and they’re playing after Game 3 of their season, and they’re coming off 2 or more wins in a row with the last of which coming by 15 points or more, versus an opponent like Oregon State who has a win percentage of .750 or better, resulted in those home underdogs with those point-spread parameters going 12-0 ATS and 11-1 SU since 2014. The only SU loss by those home dogs came by 1-point. Give me Washington State plus points.
|09-23-23||Colorado v. Oregon -21||6-42||Win||100||19 h 44 m||Show|
Colorado @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon -21.0
Colorado has been a nice story since Deion Sanders took over as head coach while guiding them to a terrific 3-0 start and #19 national ranking. The Buffaloes biggest weakness right now is their defense which has surrendered 35 points and 499 yards to Colorado State and 42 points and 541 yards to TCU but still managed to win both contests. On a positive note the Buffaloes defense has forced 7 turnovers in their 3 wins. The bad news, Oregon has yet to commit a turnover this season and averages 58.0 points and 587 totals yards per game. Even with their 3-0 record, Colorado is only +19.7 yards per game while the 3-0 Ducks are +301.7 yards per contest. Granted Colorado has played the much tougher schedule thus far, but their stop unit will be hard pressed to stop quarterback Bo Nix and the explosive Oregon offense. Give me Oregon minus the points.
|09-23-23||BYU v. Kansas -9.5||Top||27-38||Win||100||19 h 31 m||Show|
BYU @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Kansas -9.5
BYU (3-0) was able to pull off a 38-31 upset win at Arkansas last week as an 8.0-point underdog despite being outgained 424-281. During their only other game versus an FBS opponent that were listless in a 14-0 home win versus Sam Houston State and they were only able to amass a mere 257 yards in that contest.
Kansas (3-0) is coming off a flat sport last week in which they won 34-27 at Nevada but didn’t come close to covering as a 28.5-point favorite. However, I’m willing to pass since that game began at 9:30 PM ET Central Time and they were facing what was perceived to be a terrible Nevada team, and their Big 12 opener was up next versus BYU. I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back in a big way at home on Saturday.
Any College Football conference home favorite of 19.0 or less that’s coming off a SU win by 7 points or more in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they possess a season win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better and they’re coming off a SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2016. The average line in those 13 contests was 7.8 and the favorites won those contests by 21.6 points per game. Give me Kansas minus points for my Top Play of the Week.
|09-23-23||Auburn v. Texas A&M -8||10-27||Win||100||18 h 49 m||Show|
Auburn @ Texas A&M 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Texas A&M -8.0
Auburn is 3-0 but keep in mind that their 3 wins came over California, Massachusetts, and Samford. Furthermore, they were extremely lucky in the 14-10 win at California due to the Golden Bears missing 3 field goals and Auburn accumulating just 230 yards of total offense. Furthermore, Auburn committed an alarmingly high 7 turnover through their 3 games played. Additionally, since 2021, Auburn is 0-6 ATS off 2 consecutive wins and was outscored by an average of 11.3 points per game.
Texas A&M is 2-1 with their only loss coming at #20 Miami 48-33. The Aggies have scored 33 points or more in each of their 3 games this season. Since 2018, Texas A&M is 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 4.5 to 11.0 following a SU win and with an average victory margin of 16.5 points per game. Give me Texas A&M minus points.
|09-22-23||Boise State -6 v. San Diego State||34-31||Loss||-110||28 h 17 m||Show|
Boise State @ San Diego State 10:30 PM ET
Play On: Boise State -6.0
San Diego State is 2-2 but is coming off 2 consecutive losses to #22 UCLA 35-10 and #14 Oregon State 26-9. Boise State is 1-2 but their losses came at #8 Washington and by 2 at home to a very good Central Florida team. The Aztecs have played the more difficult schedule thus far but the oddsmakers were undeterred by that factor and Boise State opened as a touchdown road favorite. I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more so than any other source.
Any College Football conference away favorite of between and 3.5 to 9.0-points versus an opponent like San Diego State that’s coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 10 points or fewer on each occasion, and they have at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those conference away favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by a decisive 21.9 points per game. Give me Boise State minus the points.
|09-16-23||Fresno State -3 v. Arizona State||29-0||Win||100||50 h 11 m||Show|
Fresno State at Arizona State 10:30 PM ET
Play On: Fresno State -3.0
Fresno State went on the road in their season opener and came away with an impressive 39-35 upset win over Purdue. That result certainly wasn’t a fluke when considering the Bulldogs outgained their Big 10 opponent in total yards by a wide margin of 487-363. Now they’ll be facing another Power 5 Conference team on the road this week as they’ll take on Arizona State. Sandwiched between those 2 games was last week’s home opener versus Eastern Washington in which they escaped with a 34-31 win despite being a massive 30.0-point favorite. With all considered, I’ll give them a pass for being flat in that contest. They’ll be facing an Arizona State team that’s coming off a 27-15 home loss to Oklahoma State in a game they were held to a mere 277 yards of total offense and failed to cover as a 2.5-point underdog. The Sun Devils opened the season with an uninspiring 24-21 home win over Southern Utah who’s an FCS team and were nearly upset as a 34.5-point favorite. Give me Fresno State as a point-spread favorite.
Since 2011, road teams like Fresno State in Game 2 through 6 that are coming off a home game in which both teams scored 31 points or more, and they’re +3.0 to -3.0 on the point-spread, versus an opponent like Arizona State that’s coming off an underdog ATS loss, resulted in those road teams going 9-0 SU&ATS. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me Fresno State as a point spread favorite.
|09-16-23||South Alabama +7.5 v. Oklahoma State||33-7||Win||100||47 h 43 m||Show|
South Alabama @ Oklahoma State 7:00 PM ET
Play On: South Alabama +7.5
This certainly seems like a fishy line to me. We have a Power 5 Conference school in Oklahoma State that’s 2-0 as just a touchdown favorite at home versus a 1-1 South Alabama team from the Sun Belt Conference. The truth of the matter is South Alabama is a highly experienced team that won 10 games a season ago. They ran into a buzzsaw in their season opening loss at Tulane in a game they were derailed by committing 5 turnovers. Oklahoma State opened the season with a listless 27-13 home win versus Central Arkansas who plays at the FCS level in a game they allowed their opponent to rack up 391 yards of total offense. I wouldn’t be shocked to get the outright upset in this one, but we won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me South Alabama as a point-spread underdog.
|09-16-23||Tennessee v. Florida +6.5||Top||16-29||Win||100||47 h 22 m||Show|
Tennessee @ Florida 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Florida +6.5
Since 2016, Tennessee is just 3-6 ATS as an SEC road favorite. Conversely, since 2018, Florida is 4-0 ATS as an SEC home underdog and won 3 of those contests SU. Their only SU loss in that sequence was a narrow 31-29 defeat as a 14.0-point underdog versus Alabama. The Gators have won 9 consecutive home games versus Tennessee. Their last home loss to the Volunteers came way back in 2003. We can’t ignore that domination when considering Florida is a touchdown home underdog on Saturday. They’ll also be out to revenge a 38-33 loss at Tennessee last season in a game they covered as an 11.0-point underdog. The Gators dropped their season opener 24-11 at #12 Utah in a contest they outgained the Utes 346-270. Florida bounced back during last Saturday’s home opener with a 49-7 win over McNeese State and outgained their outclassed opponent in total yards by a decisive margin of 560-112.
College Football home underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0-points like Florida who outgained their opponent by 175 yards or more in their previous game, resulted in those home underdogs within that poiont-spread parameter going 33-6 ATS (84.6%) since 2019. The average line for the underdogs in those contests was +5.8 and they went 26-13 SU as well. Give me Florida plus points.
|09-16-23||Iowa State v. Ohio +3||7-10||Win||100||40 h 46 m||Show|
Iowa State @ Ohio 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio +3.0
We have a Big 12 team like Iowa State as just na 3.0-point road favorite versus a Mid America Conference team. If it looks too good to be true when it comes to sports betting, then most of the time it is. This is a textbook example of such in my eyes. Iowa State has been borderline anemic offensively through their first 2 games. I’ll give them a pass in last week’s 20-13 loss at Iowa in which they amassed just 290 yards of offense against a Hawkeye defense which is among the best in college football during recent seasons. However, in their season opening 30-9 home win over Northern Iowa who plays at the FCS level they had a mere 250 yards of total offense. The Cyclones will be up against an Ohio Bobcats defense which has allowed only 13.3 points and 233.3 yards per game throughout their first 3 games.
Ohio star quarterback Kurtis Rourke returned to the line in last week’s 17-10 upset win at FAU. Rourke was knocked out of the game during 1st half action in their season opening 20-13 loss at San Diego State. The Bobcats backup quarterback tossed 3 interceptions in that contest which ultimately cost Ohio the game. Since the start of last season Rourke has thrown 26 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions and passed for over 3500 yards. Give me Ohio plus points.
|09-15-23||Army +9 v. UTSA||37-29||Win||100||47 h 24 m||Show|
Army @ UTSA 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Army +9.0
UTSA was somewhat disappointing in their first 2 games. They began the season with a 17-14 loss at Houston in a game they closed as a 2.5-point favorite. That’s the same Houston team that was upset at Rice last week. They followed that up with another listless performance by defeating Texas State 20-13 at home but failed to cover as a 14.0-point favorite. They outgained both those opponents by a combined 789-551 in total yards. However, they turned the ball over 4 times and failed to force a turnover in either contest.
Army will be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-38 home loss to UTSA last season. The Black Knights dropped their season opener 17-13 at UL-Monroe in a game they were plagued by 5 turnovers in a contest they closed as an 8.5-point favorite. They bounced back with a convincing 57-0 home win last week over Delaware State who plays at the FCS level. The Black Knights offense has been run heavy for quite some time now as they run the triple option. However, they’ve shown a willingness to throw the ball in the first 2 games while amassing 27 pass attempts and gained 345 yards in the air. As a matter of fact, Army had an extremely uncharacteristically high 304 yards passing in their loss to UTSA last season.
Any non-conference away underdog of 3.0 to 10.0-points who’s not coming off a bye week like Army that’s playing with revenge and coming off a SU win by 4 points or more, versus an opponent like UTSA coming off a win in which they failed to cover, resulted in those away underdogs going 13-0-1 ATS since 1995. They also won 10 of those 14 games straight up. Give me Army plus the points.
|09-09-23||Wisconsin v. Washington State +6||22-31||Win||100||57 h 31 m||Show|
Wisconsin @ Washington State 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Washington State +6.0
Washington State is coming off a 50-24 win at Colorado State and covered easily as an 8.5-point favorite. On the other hand, Wisconsin is coming off a 38-17 home win over Buffalo in their season opener last Saturday. The Badgers failed to cover as a 27.5-point favorite in a game they led just 14-10 at the half.
Home teams coming off a straight up win by 49 points or less in which they scored 50 points or more like Washington State, and they’re facing a team like Wisconsin who is coming off a win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 25-1 ATS (96%). Those home teams also went 23-3 SU as well. Considering this betting angle backs the home team that’s the underdog, then the SU results take on even added significance. Give me Washington State plus points.
|09-09-23||Texas v. Alabama -7||34-24||Loss||-110||56 h 17 m||Show|
Texas @ Alabama 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Alabama -7.0
Alabama is coming off a 56-7 non-conference win over Middle Tennessee State. Texas is coming off a 37-10 win over Rice.
Any home favorite of 6.5 or greater like Alabama that’s coming off a non-conference SU win by 49 points or less, and they scored 50 points or more in that win, versus an opponent like Texas that’s coming off a SU win by 17 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 15 contests came by a massive 37.3 points per game. Give me Alabama minus points.
|09-09-23||Oregon v. Texas Tech +6.5||38-30||Loss||-105||56 h 2 m||Show|
Oregon @ Texas Tech 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Texas Tech +6.5
Texas Tech is coming off a 35-33 overtime loss at Wyoming in a game they closed as a 12.0-point favorite. Oregon is coming off an 81-7 blowout win over an FCS team in Portland State.
Any home underdog of 1.5 to 7.0-points like Texas Tech that’s coming off an away favorite of 10.0 or greater SU loss, and their playing in Games 2 through 9, versus an opponent like Oregon that’s coming off a win by 9 points or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 13-0 ATS since 1987. Additionally, those home underdogs won 12 of those 13 games SU. Give me Texas Tech plus points.
|09-09-23||Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +4||Top||33-48||Win||100||53 h 2 m||Show|
Texas A&M @ Miami Fla. 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Miami Fla. +4.0
Miami is coming off a 38-3 non-conference win over Miami-Ohio and they covered easily as a 16.5-point home favorite. Texas A&M comes off a 52-10 home win over New Mexico.
Any non-conference home underdog of 5.5 or less Like Miami that’s coming off a non-conference home favorite of 12.0 or greater ATS win in which they covered by 10.0-points or more, versus an opponent like Texas A&M that’s coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going 8-0 SU&ATS since 1993. Those home underdogs won all 8 of those games straight up and by a decisive margin of 12.6 points per contest. Give me Miami plus points.
|09-08-23||Illinois +3 v. Kansas||23-34||Loss||-108||50 h 36 m||Show|
Illinois @ Kansas 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Illinois +3.0
The Illini are coming off a 30-28 win over Toledo but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. Conversely Kansas toyed with Missouri State who plays at the FCS level during last week’s 48-17 win.
Since 1985, any College Football non-conference away underdog of 6.5 or less like Illinois, that’s coming off a non-conference win by 3 points or fewer in which they failed to cover as a home favorite, and they won 11-games or fewer the season before, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 ATS. The away underdogs also won 11 of those 12 games straight up. Give me Illinois plus points.
|09-04-23||Clemson v. Duke +13||7-28||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
Clemson @ Duke 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Duke +13.0
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, Clemson is superior athletically and has more overall team speed than Duke. They annually have one of the top recruiting classes in the country and has produced a plethora of NFL players during head coach’s Dabo Swinney’s tenure which hasn’t been the case at Duke. Okay, now let’s move on to just this game and who will cover the spread.
Duke enjoyed a 9-4 season under 1st year head coach Mike Elko in 2022. The year was capped off with a convincing 30-13 win over UCF in a bowl game. The Blue Devils 4 losses all came by 8 points or fewer. Furthermore, 3 of those 4 defeats came by 3 points or less. Duke is only 13-15 in their last 28 at home but was 5-1 last season. Duke returns 18 starters from last year’s successful team including star quarterback Riley Leonard. The junior was outstanding last season while throwing 2967 yards and 20 touchdowns versus 6 picks. Leonard also rushed for 699 yards and 13 touchdowns as well. Look for Leonard to be a key cog in us getting the cover.
Any College Football Game 1 home underdog of 4.0 to 16.5-points like Duke that won 8 or more regular season games the year before, and has won 9 or more of their last 28 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 10-0 ATS since 2010. The underdogs also won 7 of those 10 games straight up. Giver me Duke plus the points.
|09-02-23||South Alabama +6.5 v. Tulane||17-37||Loss||-105||75 h 12 m||Show|
South Alabama @ Tulane 8:00 PM ET
Play On: South Alabama +6.5
Soth Alabama finished the 2022 regular season with an impressive 10-2 record. Their lone defeats came by just a combined 5 points. The Jaguars were 5-1 SU on the road with their lone loss coming a at UCLA 32-31 in a contest they closed as a 15.5-point underdog. They return 18 starters from that team.
Tulane had a storybook 12-2 season and AAC Championship. Additionally, that magical season concluded with a 45-28 win over UCF in their conference championship game, and a stunning New Year’s Day Bowl thrilling win over traditional college football powerhouse USC. Yet here we are 8 months later, and they’re just a touchdown favorite in their season opener at home versus a Sun Belt Conference team. They’re begging you to lay the points at home with the Green Wave. Tulane lost some very key personnel on both sides of the ball that heavily contributed to an extremely successful season.
I going with a contrarian approach in this one, and it wouldn’t shock me in the least if the underdog pulls off an outright upset. However, I won’t get greedy and take South Alabama plus points.
|08-31-23||Florida v. Utah -6||11-24||Win||100||71 h 29 m||Show|
Florida @ Utah 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Utah -6.0
Utah was upset in their season opener a year ago by Florida in a game that went into the very late stages of the 4th quarter before a winner was finally decided. However, all you need to do is look at the Florida Gators regular season over/under win total of 5.5. When doing so, it tells you what the sharpest minds in sports betting, which are oddsmakers, think of Florida’s chances of even reaching a in a bowl game this year, let alone beating a Top 10 caliber team in their season opener.
Utah has gone 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 home games. Furthermore, since 10/17/2015, the Utes are a perfect 11-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite while playing with revenge. The average line during those 11 situations was 11.5 and the Utes outscored their opponents by an average of 18.6 points per game. If the worst-case scenario is Rising being ruled out at gametime, I still like the Utes even at this current number. Otherwise, if Rising is available, this line will move much closer or match the opening number of 9.5. Either way, give me Utah minus points.
|08-26-23||Ohio +2.5 v. San Diego State||13-20||Loss||-105||24 h 45 m||Show|
Ohio @ San Diego State 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio +2.5
This line jumped right off the page at me when it first came out. Ohio as a short road favorite versus a Mountain West football program with a fine winning tradition. However, upon further review, this is an Ohio team that went 10-4 last season, reached the MAC Championship Game, and beat another Mountain West Conference team in a bowl game by way of a 30-27 win over Wyoming. They finished the season on a 8-1 winning run. Ohio returns 9 starters on offense including quarterback Kurtis Rourke and 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year a season ago that was cut short by an ACL injury in Game 11 at Ball State. However, Rourke still threw for 3256 yards with 25 touchdown passes versus only 4 interceptions. He also ran for 249 yards and 4 touchdowns as well. Since 9/23/17, Ohio has gone 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 3.0 or less and won by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Ohio plus points.
|01-02-23||Utah +1.5 v. Penn State||21-35||Loss||-110||6 h 10 m||Show|
Utah vs. Penn State 5:00 PM ET
Play On: Utah +1.5 (5*)
Penn State ended the regular season on a 4-game win streak to improve its record to 10-2 (.833). However, in their 2 marquee games this season they lost to Michigan 41-17 and at home to Ohio State 44-31. The Nittany Lions allowed a combined 1015 yards in those defeats. They’ll be facing a Utah team in the Rose Bowl that’s one of just a handful of college football squads that can match or exceed their physicality.
Since Kyle Whittingham took over as head coach Utah, the Utes have gone 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in either bowl games of Conference Championship contests. That includes 9-0 ATS and 8-1 SU if their point-spread was -2.5 to +9.5 in those postseason games. Utah is coming off USC 47-24 as a 2.5-point underdog in the PAC-12 Championship Game that improved their season record 10-3 (.769).
College Football teams like Utah who have a point-spread parameter of +2.5 to -2.5 +2.5 and are playing after Game 10 with a win percentage of .857 or less, and they’re coming off a SU underdog win by 7 points or greater in which they scored 35 points or more, versus opponents like Penn State that have a win percentage of better than .600, resulted in those teams going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2001.
Give me Utah over Penn State.
|01-02-23||Tulane +2.5 v. USC||46-45||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
Tulane vs. USC 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tulane +2.5 (5*)
This line jumped right off the screen at me when it first came out. We have mighty USC who blew a sure College Football Playoff invite when they fell to Utah in the PAC-12 Championship Game. Now they’re less than a field goal favorite with little to no line movement off the opener while facing Tulane from a Group-Of-5 Conference (AAC). The totality of those previous 3 sentences speaks volumes to me. As a result, and just like I expected public perception will be askew when assessing who to take in this game. The consensus obvious choice would be USC and especially for those looking through a narrow lens. The Green Wave are for real. They defeated Big 12 champion Kansas State on the road earlier this season. That’s the same Kansas State that beat TCU (13-1) in their Conference Championship Game. By the way, TCU will be playing Georgia for College Football National Championship Game on January 9th.
Enough said, give me Tulane plus the small number.
|12-31-22||Ohio State +6 v. Georgia||41-42||Win||100||24 h 13 m||Show|
Ohio State vs. Georgia 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio State +6.0 (10*)
Fresh in the minds of many is Ohio State’s embarrassing home blowout loss to Michigan. The Buckeyes allowed 45 points and 542 yards in that defeat. Despite that poor defensive showing, the Buckeyes defense still allows just 19.3 points and 304.1 yards per game. The Georgia defense has been an elite unit for the past 2 seasons. However, LSU may have exposed a weakness in Georgia’s pass defense during the SEC Championship Game. LSU Tigers was able to rack up 502 passing yards in a loss. On the other hand, Ohio State has averaged 44.5 points and 492.8 yards per game this season. Because of those last 2 points, we have a puncher’s chance with the underdog Buckeyes explosive offense.
Give me Ohio State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-31-22||Kansas State +7 v. Alabama||20-45||Loss||-110||17 h 18 m||Show|
Kansas State vs. Alabama 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Kansas State +7.0 (5*)
Kansas State enters this Sugar Bowl matchup with mighty Alabama on an extremely high level of confidence. The Wildcats went 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 including an upset of then undefeated TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship game. Now they get to take on the current biggest brand name in College Football. Kansas State has been terrific offensively throughout their previous 7 contests while averaging 38.7 points scored and 442.3 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Crimson Tide defense which looked a bit vulnerable in their final 3 regular season games versus LSU, Ole Miss, and Auburn. During that stretch, Alabama allowed a mere mortal 27.7 points and 388.3 yards per game.
Here's a key element in which I believe why Kansas State will at the very least keep this game close throughout. The Wildcats have an outstanding turnover margin of +14 this season. Conversely, Alabama comes in at a -4. Here’s another, Kansas State’s emotional edge over Alabama. Nick Saban has built this program to the standard that anything less than a national championship isn’t acceptable. Let alone what occurred this season where they failed to reach both the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoffs. Kansas State on the other hand, will be extremely excited for this opportunity in a major bowl game and expecting to win.
Give me Kansas State plus the points.
|12-29-22||Oklahoma v. Florida State -9.5||32-35||Loss||-110||8 h 31 m||Show|
Oklahoma vs. Florida State 5:30 PM ET
Play On: Florida State -9.5 (5*)
Oklahoma enters the bowl season with a disappointing 6-6 record under 1st year head coach Brett Venables. The Sooners were 1-6 SU and 0-7 this season in games they allowed 14 points or greater. They’ll be facing a Florida State team that hasn’t scored 14 points or fewer in any game this season. Furthermore, Oklahoma has allowed 38 points or more in 6 of its last 9 and 400 yards or greater in 8 of its previous 9 games.
Florida State is on a path of returning to the glory days in year 3 of head coach Mike Norvell’s tenure. The Seminoles finished regular season action with a stellar 9-3 record. Furthermore, they went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. During this current winning streak, the Seminoles averaged 43.6 points scored and 490.6 yards per game. Florida State is also 3-0 SU&ATS this season versus non-conference FBS opponents. The Seminoles defense isn’t too shabby as well. They’re allowing just 19.7 points and 308.0 yards per game. Florida State won’t beat themselves, evidenced by them committing only 12 turnovers this season.
Give me Florida State minus the points.
|12-28-22||Ole Miss v. Texas Tech +3.5||25-42||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss 2:00 PM ET
Play On: Texas Tech +3.5 (5*)
These teams enter the bowl season on opposite sides of the momentum meter. Texas Tech finished its regular season schedule by going 3-0 SU&ATS to end up 7-5. On the other hand, after beginning the season 7-0 and being ranked in the Top 10, Ole Miss lost 4 of its last 5, and includes a current 3-game losing streak. Despite Ole Miss coming from the powerful SEC, Texas Tech has played a slightly tougher schedule according to the metrics I use to determine that matchup element.
Give me Texas Tech plus the points.
|12-28-22||Central Florida v. Duke -3||13-30||Win||100||5 h 37 m||Show|
UCF vs. Duke 2:00 PM ET
Play On: Duke -3.0 (5*)
Duke won 4 of their last 5 to finish its regular season slate 8-4. All 4 of the Blue Devils losses came by 8 points or fewer. As a matter of fact, their previous 3 defeats came by a combined 8 points. Unlike most teams this bowl season including UCF, Duke’s roster has remained intact with regards to transfer portal losses or players opting out for the 2023 NFL draft. During that 4-1 stretch to finish the regular season, Duke allowed a mere 90.6 yards rushing per game. That's not good news for UCF since they went 0-3 SU&ATS this season when rushing for less than 160 yards in a game and lost by 14.7 yards per contest. Another key element is Duke averages 33:00 in time of possession per game and is effectively balanced offensively. Lastly, Duke doesn’t beat themselves. The Blue Devils have committed 10 turnovers all season and are a +14 in turnover margin.
Give me Duke minus the points.
|12-27-22||East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina||53-29||Win||100||10 h 21 m||Show|
East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina 6:45 PM ET
Play On: East Carolina -7.0 (5*)
East Carolina has gone 6 consecutive games without committing a turnover. As a matter of fact, that had 0 turnovers in 8 of 12 games this season. After starting the season 9-1, Coastal Carolina lost it’s last 2 to Troy 45-26 and James Madison 47-7. Conversely, Coastal Carolina committed 6 turnovers in their last 3 games alone which is 1 less than East Carolina had all season.
Coastal Carolina star quarterback Grayson McCall is set to return from injury and play despite entering his name into the transfer portal. It also remains to be seen how sharp McCall will be after not seeing live action for an extended period. Additionally, successful head coach Jamey Chadwell notified the school after the Chanticleers loss in the Sun Belt Championship Game that he’ll be leaving to take the job at Liberty. Other than more money which is most always alluring, it appears to be a lateral move and certainly won’t bode well in terms of team morale.
East Carolina has an impressive passing game that averages 288 yards per contest in the air. Conversely, Coastal Carolina was last in the Sun Belt Conference in pass yards allowed. Specifically speaking, the Chanticleers allowed 278 or more passing yards in their last 5 and 9 of its previous 11 games.
Give me East Carolina minus the points.
|12-23-22||Houston -7 v. UL-Lafayette||23-16||Push||0||47 h 35 m||Show|
UL-Lafayette vs. Houston 3:00 PM ET
Play On: Houston -7.0 (5*)
UL-Lafayette has lost 2 starters for this game due to them opting out for the NFL Draft. They include top wide receiver Michael Jefferson and star defensive end Andre Jones. On the one occasion the Ragin Cajuns stepped in class this season, they were blown out 49-17 at Florida State.
Houston finished the regular season with a somewhat disappointing 7-5 record. However, this is an offense that’s been clicking on all cylinders while averaging 41.7 points scored per game over their last 7 contests and amassed 445 yards or more of total offense on each occasion. The Cougars are #14 nationally in scoring offense at 37.5 points per game. They also possess the 7th best passing offense in the country while averaging 321.1 yards in the air per game. The Cougars have unequivocally played the stronger schedule in this matchup.
Give me Houston minus the points.
|12-20-22||Toledo v. Liberty +4||21-19||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
Liberty vs. Toledo 7:30 PM ET
Play On: Liberty +4.0 (5*)
This Boca Raton Bowl opened with Toledo being a 1.0-point favorite and was quickly moved to 3.5 and 4.0. The move had to do more with the departure of head coach Hugh Freeze who left Liberty to take the same position at Auburn than money related. Since the interim tag was removed from Jason Candle at Toledo, the Rockets have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in bowl games under his guidance, and 3 of those defeats came as a favorite. Conversely, since becoming a FBS team, Liberty has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in bowl games with 2 of those wins coming as an underdog.
Give me Liberty plus the points.
|12-17-22||Florida v. Oregon State -8||Top||3-30||Win||100||24 h 0 m||Show|
Florida vs. Oregon State 2:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State -8.0 (10*)
This will be a depleted Florida roster that will enter Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl. Quite frankly, they were an average at best team before the loss of players to the transfer portal and opt out for the NFL Draft since their regular season slate concluded. The Gators finished 6-6 during regular season action which included 1-4 in neutral site or away games and allowed 31 points or more in those losses.
Oregon State enters this bowl game riding a ton of momentum after completing a 9-3 regular season campaign which culminated with a 38-34 win over bitter in state rival Oregon. They also saw 2 of their 3 losses come by exactly 3 points versus nationally ranked Washington and USC.
Give me Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-03-22||Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina||39-10||Win||100||31 h 43 m||Show|
Clemson vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Clemson -7.5 (5*)
North Carolina was 9-1 to start the season before losing their last 2 regular season games versus Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Despite their still stellar 9-3 record, the tar Heels defense isn’t championship caliber. That’s been a common theme during Mack Brown’s second tenure as the Tar Heels head coach. His teams post winning records that are more of a result of superb offensive play than its defensive prowess. The Tar Heels are a misleading 6-0 this season in games not played at Chapel Hill. Nevertheless, they were just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests and their opponents average 35.0 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, 5 of those 6 wins came by 3 points or fewer and the other being a 7-point victory over Georgia State.
Clemson has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 ACC Championship games and outscored their opponents by an average of 25.8 points per contest. The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Since the start of the 2012 season, Clemson is 14-0 SU following a loss. Those results include 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 14.0 or less and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per game. Simply put, Clemson hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 2011 and with them laying a single-digit number on Saturday it creates a strong betting value.
Give me Clemson minus the points.
|12-03-22||Purdue +17 v. Michigan||22-43||Loss||-110||31 h 39 m||Show|
Purdue vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET
Play On: Purdue +17.0 (10*)
Since 2017, Purdue has gone an extremely profitable 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog of 4.0 or more and they won 11 of those 22 contests straight up. By the way, 2017 is the year Jeff Brohm took over as their head coach. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-16 win at Indiana in their regular season finale and covered as a 10.0-point favorite. That victory improved their season record to 8-4 (.666). Conversely, Michigan comes off a huge 45-23 upset win at bitter rival Ohio State and did so as a 9.0-point underdog to conclude their regular season slate with an undefeated 12-0 record. It must be noted that college football neutral site favorites of 10.0 or greater that are coming off an away underdog of 9.0 or greater SU upset win, resulted in those teams going 0-6 ATS since 2002.
College Football conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 that are coming off a conference away favorite ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .666 or better, versus an undefeated opponent (Michigan) that’s coming off an ATS win in which they scored 56 points or fewer, resulted in those conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 going 14-0 ATS since 1980.
Give me Purdue plus the points.
|12-03-22||LSU v. Georgia -17.5||30-50||Win||100||27 h 53 m||Show|
LSU vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Georgia -17.5 (5*)
Georgia (12-0) is a tremendous defensive team that has allowed 14 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. The Bulldogs have also allowed 22 points or fewer in all 12 of their regular season games. Additionally, Georgia has allowed 22 points or fewer in 29 of its previous 30 games. The offense will certainly do their part, but defense will ultimately earn us a cover.
Brian Kelly has done a superb job in his 1st year as head coach at LSU. His Tigers are 9-3 and find themselves in the SEC Championship Game versus the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU was a shiny 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season. However, in all other games not played in Baton Rouge they were 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That basically tells me they’ve played far beneath expectations in those contests.
Give me Georgia minus the points.
|12-03-22||Fresno State +3 v. Boise State||28-16||Win||100||27 h 44 m||Show|
Fresno State @ Boise State 4:00 PM ET
Play On: Fresno State +3.0 (5*)
These teams just played one another on October 18th and Boise State walked away with a 40-20 final score. However, the final score was very deceiving when considering that Fresno State had a total yards advantage of 443-233. Since that defeat, Fresno State has won 7 consecutive contests and won by a convincing average of 21.3 points per game. The Bulldogs rushed for a season high 316 yards in that loss and only threw the ball 18 times. This is also a Fresno State offense that’s amassed 313 or more passing yards in 4 of its last 5 games while also posting a turnover differential of +8 during that stretch.
Give me Fresno State plus the points.
|12-03-22||Coastal Carolina v. Troy -8||26-45||Win||100||26 h 16 m||Show|
Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*)
Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages.
Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer.
College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game.
Give me Troy minus the points.
|12-03-22||Toledo v. Ohio +3||Top||17-7||Loss||-110||23 h 50 m||Show|
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET
Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*)
These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession.
Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year.
|12-02-22||North Texas v. UTSA -8.5||27-48||Win||100||30 h 3 m||Show|
North Texas @ UTSA 7:30 PM ET
Play On: UTSA -8.5 (5*)
UTSA started the season 1-2 with losses coming to Houston by 2 and at Texas 41-20. Since that time, they’ve won 9 straight including going 8-0 in Conference USA action. UTSA defeated North Texas 31-27 at home earlier this season but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. However, looking inside the numbers they outgained North Texas (7-5) in that contest by a wide margin of 496-347 and on most occasions that would be good enough for at double-digit win at the very least. The Mean Green have also lost on the road 3 other times by 31 at UNLV, by 20 at UAB, and by 10 at Memphis. On those occasions they allowed an average of 47.7 points and 471.7 yards per game. North Texas has allowed 496 yards or more in 5 of 12 games this season. That’s hardly championship material defensive play. They will be tasked with stopping a UTSA offense that’s averaged 38.4 points and 480.5 yards per game in Conference USA action.
Give me UTSA minus the points.
|11-26-22||Oregon v. Oregon State +3||Top||34-38||Win||100||22 h 10 m||Show|
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET
Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*)
You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts.
Give me Oregon State plus the points.
|11-26-22||Louisville +3 v. Kentucky||13-26||Loss||-110||22 h 30 m||Show|
Louisville @ Kentucky 3:00 PM ET
Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*)
College Football away teams (Louisville) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a conference SU win by 30 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .510 to .600 who’s coming off a SU loss in which they covered as an underdog, resulted in those away teams going 24-10 SU (70.6%) and 28-6 ATS (82.4%) since 1992.
Give me Louisville plus the small number.
|11-26-22||Akron v. Northern Illinois -10||44-12||Loss||-110||20 h 2 m||Show|
Akron @ Northern Illinois 1:30 PM ET
Play On: Northern Illinois -10.0 (5*)
College Football home favorites of 6.5 to 14.0 (Northern Illinois) that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 35.0 points or less, versus teams like Akron who have a win percentage of .250 to .400 and coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 18-2 ATS (90%) since 1986. The home favorites won all 20 of those games straight up and by an average of 19.7 points per contest.
Give me Northern Illinois minus the points.
|11-26-22||Coastal Carolina v. James Madison -14||7-47||Win||100||19 h 33 m||Show|
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison 12:00 PM ET
Play On: James Madison -14.0 (5*)
I’m aware of the fact that Coastal Carolina star quarterback was lost to a season ending injury. However, this is still a Coastal Carolina team that’s ranked #23 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings with an outstanding 9-1 record. Yet, here they are as a 2-touchdown underdog versus an unranked conference opponent with a 7-3 record. Coastal is the sucker play of the week.
Give me James Madison minus the points.