Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-01-22 | Oklahoma v. TCU +6.5 | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show | |
Oklahoma @ TCU 12:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: TCU +6.5 (5*) TCU is off to a 3-0 start to the season and they’re averaging an impressive 510 yards of total offense per game. During their previous 2 contests the Horned Frogs averaged an excellent 7.48 yards per offensive play. Conversely, the Oklahoma defense which has allowed 361.8 yards per game during its 3-1 start to the season. This sets up an awesome college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home team (TCU) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 99-13 SU (88.4%) since 1992. This college football SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the home underdog in this matchup. We won’t get greedy and take the points as an additional bonus. Give me TCU plus the points. | |||||||
09-30-22 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
Washington @ UCLA 10:30 PM ET Game# 111-112 Play On: UCLA +3.5 (5*) Both teams come in with identical 4-0 records. UCLA is coming off a convincing 45-17 win at Colorado. Washington is coming off a 40-22 home win over Stanford and covered as a 14.0-point favorite. Any college football conference home pick or underdog of 6.5 or less (UCLA) that’s coming off a road win by 28 points or more, and has a win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent (Washington) with a winning record who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home teams going 9-0 ATS since 2018. Those home teams also went 8-1 SU in those contests. The lone SU loss came on 9/29/2018 when Penn State sustained a 27-26 defeat to Ohio State, but they covered as a 3.0-point home underdog. Those 9 home teams in this identical betting scenario also outscored their opponents by an average of 8.3 points per game. Give me UCLA plus the points. | |||||||
09-30-22 | UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State +4 | 45-30 | Loss | -105 | 96 h 13 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee State 7:30 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Middle Tennessee State +4.0 (5*) The UTSA Roadrunners enter this game at 2-2. Their 2 victories were 41-38 over Army (overtime) and last week’s 52-24 thrashing of Texas Southern who plays at the FCS level. However, that Texas Southern win comes with a huge red flag as the Roadrunners defense allowed 464 yards in the contest. That marks the 3rd consecutive game in which the Roadrunners stop unit surrendered 459 yards or more and in addition to allowing an alarmingly high 34.3 points per game during that stretch. After beginning the season with a 44-7 blowout loss to James Madison (4-0), MTSU has gone 3-0 SU&ATS. As a matter of fact, last Saturday they upset then #25 Miami 45-31 as a large 26.0-point road underdog. The Blue Raiders amassed an impressive 507 yards of total offense in that stunning result. MTSU also has an impressive turnover margin of +5 during their current 3-game win streak. Any college football home underdog of 7.0 or less (MTSU) that’s coming off 3 or more wins in a row, and they scored 42 points or more in their previous game, versus an opponent (UTSA) coming off a SU win, resulted in those home underdogs going a perfect 15-0 ATS since 2016. Those underdogs also won 12 of those 15 games straight up. Give me Middle Tennessee State plus the points. | |||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -4 | Top | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*) Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it. By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite. Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month. | |||||||
09-25-22 | 49ers v. Broncos +2 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*) Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week. NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play. | |||||||
09-25-22 | Bengals v. Jets +6 | 27-12 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Jets 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Jets +6.0 (5*) The Bengals find themselves in a rare situation as an away favorite and coming off a pair of 3-point losses. Any NFL away favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming of 2 consecutive losses by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those away favorites going 0-4 SU&ATS since 1980 and were defeated by an average of 10.3 points per game. The Jets are coming off a remarkable and unlikely comeback win last Sunday in Cleveland. They overcame a 30-17 deficit to win 31-30 after scoring 2 touchdowns with less than 2 minutes to play. They closed as a 6.5-point underdog in that contest. Any NFL non-division home underdog of 5.0 to 8.5 that’s coming off an away underdog SU win, and they’re playing in Game 2 through Game 6 of their season, resulted in those home underdogs going 21-1 ATS (95.5%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went a more than respectable 11-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus the points. | |||||||
09-25-22 | Lions +6 v. Vikings | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show | |
Lions @ Vikings 1:00 ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Lions +6.0 (5*) The Lions are coming off an impressive 36-27 home win over Washington. Conversely, Minnesota is coming off a 24-7 Monday night loss at Philadelphia. The Lions have gone 3-0 ATS in their last 3 versus the Vikings. They went just 1-2 SU in those contests but both losses each came by narrow 2-point margins. Any division away underdog that’s coming off a win in which they scored 35 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a loss by 11 or more and they scored 14 or less, resulted in those division away underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 1986. Those underdogs also went a stellar 10-4 SU as well. Give me Detroit plus the points. | |||||||
09-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +6 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 50 h 7 m | Show |
USC @ Oregon State 9:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon State +6.0 (10*) Oregon State is coming off a 68-28 win over Montana State which improved their season record to 3-0. Since 1980, any college football home team that’s 3-0 to start the season and is coming off a win by 35 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-5 SU (90.7%). This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog Oregon State Beavers in this matchup. USC is a +10 turnover differential during it 3-0 start, but Oregon State isn’t too shabby at +5 in that category. Give me Oregon State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. | |||||||
09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 44 h 9 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Michigan State 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (5*) The Gophers enter this matchup with an unblemished 3-0 record after recording 3 home wins. They outgained those 3 opponents by an enormous 384.4 yards per game and displayed a dominating running game while doing so. Since the start of last season, Minnesota is 6-0 SU&ATS when coming off a home win and won by 30.2 points per game. Minnesota has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a conference home favorite of 8.0 or less under current head coach P.J. Fleck and won by a decisive margin of 25.0 points per game. Conversely, Michigan State is coming off a humbling 39-28 loss at Washington in a game they also the Huskies to rack up 503 yards of total offense. Any college football away team with a point-spread of +1.5 to -4.5 playing in a Game 4, and is 3-0 to start the season, and they allowed 23 points or fewer in their previous games which came versus a non-conference opponent, resulted in those away teams going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1987. The average margin of victory was by 12.0 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points. | |||||||
09-24-22 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +7.5 | 51-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Wake Forest 12:00 PM ET Game# 339-340 Play On: Wake Forest +7.0 (5*) Talk about revenge, Wake Forest has lost their last 13 games versus Clemson and 12 of those defeats came by 10 points or more. However, most of those matchups involved Wake Forest teams not as good as this current edition and Clemson teams much better than this one in 2022. The Demon Deacons have established a strong home field in recent years. They’ve won 11 straight at home and are 17-2 in their last 19 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. That certainly bodes well when considering they’re a home underdog on Saturday. The Demon Deacons were caught looking ahead in last week’s 37-36 home win over Liberty in a game they closed as a 17.0-point favorite. Give me Wake Forest plus the points. | |||||||
09-24-22 | Duke +7.5 v. Kansas | 27-35 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 1 m | Show | |
Duke @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Duke +7.5 (5*) Someone is going to come out of this game with a 4-0 record. Raise your hand if you predicted that kind of start from either team. Now your hand down if you raised because you’re either a pathological or blatant liar. Kansas is coming off upset wins as an away underdog at Houston and West Virginia. Despite their 3-0 start with 1 of those wins coming on the road, Duke is just 10-18 in their last 28 away games. The Blue Devils are at a +5 turnover differential thus far in 2022. Since 1980, any non-conference college football away underdog of 2.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off 2 or more wins in a row, and they’ve won 11 or fewer of its last 28 road games, versus an opponent off 2 straight away underdog SU upset win, resulted in those away underdogs going 8-0 ATS. Those away underdogs also won 6 of those 8 contests straight up. Give me Duke plus the points. | |||||||
09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns -4.5 | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland 8:15 PM Game# 301-302 Play On: Cleveland -4.5 (5*) Both teams enter today with a 1-1 record, and each is coming off a loss. The Browns managed to squander a 30-17 lead with less than 2 minutes to play in a 31-30 loss to the New York Jets as a closing 6.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh is coming off a disappointing 17-14 home loss to New England. Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 on the road following a SU loss and lost by an average of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL Thursday division home favorite that’s coming off a home favorite loss in which they scored 7 points or more versus an opponent with at least 1 win on the season, resulted in those home favorites going 11-1 ATS since 1980. Those home favorites were also a perfect 12-0 SU in those contests and won by an average of 12.8 points per game. Give me Cleveland minus the points. | |||||||
09-22-22 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech +1.5 | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 21 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Virginia Tech +1.5 (5*) Virginia Tech is coming off a 27-7 win over Wofford and outgained them by 276 yards. The Hokies are 2-1 thus far and their defense has been outstanding while having allowed 12.3 points and 199.7 points per game. During West Virginia’s only 2 games versus FBS opponents this season their defense allowed 46.5 points and 402.0 yards per game. Any college football home team that outgained their previous opponent by 275 yards or more and its defense is allowing an average of 225 or fewer yards per game, resulted in those home teams going 34-2 SU (94.2%) since 2018. That exact betting angle is also a perfect 12-0 SU since 2020. Since this college football SU betting angle supports the home underdog in this matchup it takes on even greater significance. Give me Virginia Tech plus the small number. | |||||||
09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*) Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game. Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play. | |||||||
09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
Washington @ Detroit 1:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Washington +1.5 (5*) Detroit of is coming off a season opening 38-35 home loss to Philadelphia. The Lions lost despite rushing for 181 yards and that’s difficult to do in the NFL. However, they also allowed Philadelphia to rush for 216 yards of their own. Detroit is now a dismal 6-22 SU in their last 28 at home. The Lions are also 1-7 SU at home since 2020 when the line is +3.0 to -3.0 and were outscored by an average of 10.6 points per game. Washington has gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 regular road games when the line was +3.5 to -3.5 under current head coach Ron Rivera and they won by an average of 9.0 points per game. The Commanders will look to carry the momentum over from last week’s come from behind 28-22 home win over Jacksonville. | |||||||
09-17-22 | UTSA +13 v. Texas | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show | |
UTSA @ Texas 8:00 PM ET Game# 193-194 Play On: UTSA +13.0 (5*) Texas is coming off a gut-wrenching 20-19 loss to then #1 Alabama in a game they closed as a massive 20.5-point home underdog. The Longhorns have their Big 12 Conference opener coming up next versus Texas Tech and this shapes up to be a flat spot for them emotionally on Saturday. After all, it’s just human nature when prediction Texas won’t come close to matching the intensity level and razor-sharp focus they displayed last week versus Alabama, and especially so versus an opponent from Conference USA. Furthermore, the top 2 quarterbacks on the Longhorns depth chart were injured in the Alabama loss and their 3rd stringer Maalik Murphy has been also sidelined with an undisclosed injury. They may be forced to go with 4th string quarterback Charles Wright. It’s also worth noting that star running back Bijan Robinson was also banged up and is listed as day-to-day. Getting up emotionally for this game won’t be an issue for the UTSA Roadrunners. The Roadrunners are coming off a 41-38 overtime win at Army and opened the season with a narrow 37-35 loss to then nationally ranked Houston. This is a UTSA program which has gone 16-4 SU in their last 20 games and includes 6-1 ATS and 4-3 SU as an underdog. I went with Texas +20.5 last Saturday but this week they will be a fade. Give me UTSA plus the points. | |||||||
09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show | |
Colorado State @ Washington State 5:00 PM ET Game# 161-162 Play On: Washington State -16.5 (5*) Washington State is coming off a 17-14 upset win at Wisconsin and did so as a 20.5-point underdog. They will be facing a Colorado State team coming off a 34-19 upset loss to Middle Tennessee State at home in a game they closed as a 14.5-point favorite. This sets up and extremely profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any college football home favorite of 11.0 to 30.0-points that coming off an upset win as a road underdog of 10.0 or greater has gone 22-1 ATS (95.6%) since 1990. If they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss, the betting angle improves to 13-0 ATS with an average victory margin of 30.9 points per game. Give me Washington State minus the points. | |||||||
09-16-22 | Florida State v. Louisville +3 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Louisville 7:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) Regarding betting trends, we took advantage of a similar situation last week by taking Texas +21.0 over Alabama. The Longhorns came oh so close to winning that game outright during a 20-19 defeat. In that scenario, over 80% of betting tickets and money was wagered on Alabama. Believe it or not, the betting trend percentages in this game exceed last week’s previously mentioned occurrence, and favors the small road favorite Florida State Seminoles. It’s worth repeating, more times than not when the betting percentages exceed 80% to one side, betting the other team is the right move. Florida State is coming off a 24-23 win over LSU last week in a game they closed as a 4.0-point underdog. However, let’s keep it real Seminoles backers, that’s an LSU team that was playing in their season opener while playing with a new coaching staff and large turnover in player personnel. The Seminoles also held a slight edge in respect to already having a game under the belt after defeating Duquesne in Week 0. This will be just the 4th time since 2018 that Florida State has been a road favorite. The Seminoles went 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU during the previous 3 in that exact role. Louisville showed a ton of character during last week’s 20-14 win at Central Florida in a contest they closed as a 5.5-point underdog. They Cardinals were down 14-7 in that contest, and it was on the heels of a dismal performance at Syracuse the week before which resulted in a 31-7 blowout loss. Yet, they outscored UCF 13-0 during 2nd half action to pull off a much-needed upset win. Look for them to carry that momentum into this week’s home opener. Give me Louisville plus the points. | |||||||
09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
LA Chargers @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: LA Chargers +4.0 (5*) Since taking over as head coach in Kansas City, Any Reid has gone and outstanding 60-23 at home. However, 4 of those 23 home losses have come to the Chargers. He’s 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS versus the Chargers at home. The current total in this game is 54.5. The Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games when the total was 49.5 or greater. That includes 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU if they were facing a divisional opponent. Both teams are coming off impressive opening game win over opponents that were playoff teams a season ago. Under current head coach Brandon Staley, the Chargers went 3-1 SU&ATS as an away underdog last season which included a 30-24 win at Kansas City as a 7.0-point underdog. Give me the Chargers plus the points. The Chiefs are coming off 44-21 win at Arizona in which they covered as a 6.0-point favorite. They’re now 24-8 in their last 32 games. Since 2003, any NFL away underdog (Chargers) of 6.0 or less, versus an opponent (Chiefs) coming off an away favorite ATS win it covered by 3.0 or more, and they’ve won 18 or more of their last 32 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-3 ATS (88%). The away underdog also won 19 of those 25 games straight up. Give me the Chargers plus the points. | |||||||
09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +6.5 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 21 m | Show | |
Denver @ Seattle 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Seattle +6.5 (5*) Seattle isn’t a very good team at this juncture. Conversely, I believe the Russell Wilson factor in Denver certainly makes Denver better, but not to the point where they’re a better than touchdown road favorite in a season opening nationally televised Monday night game. Besides, under current head coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-1 ATS and 10-4 SU in their last 14 as a home underdog of +3.0 or greater. Seattle went 7-10 last season and is also 19-13 during it previous 32 at home. Any Monday night non-division home underdog (Seattle) that won 7 or more games during regular season action the year before and has also won 17 or more of its previous 32 at home, resulted in those home underdogs going 7-0 ATS since 1987. Those underdogs also won 5 of those 7 contests straight up. Give me Seattle plus the points. | |||||||
09-11-22 | Bucs v. Cowboys +3 | 19-3 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 1 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Dallas 8:20 PM ET Game# 481-488 Play On: Dallas +3.0 (-120) (5*) Dallas is coming off last year’s successful 12-5 regular season campaign. Since 1985, NFL Game 1 home teams that won 12 or more regular season games the year before are a superb 55-19 (74.3%) SU. Those SU results take on added betting value since the home team in this instance is an underdog. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from last season’s opening game 31-29 loss at Tampa Bay. Tom Brady took a brief sabbatical during training camp to attend to family matters. I am skeptical about how mentally prepared he is going into this season even as great as his illustrious career has been. Since 2018, Dallas is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as a conference home underdog and averaged outscoring those opponents by a decisive margin of 13.5 points per game. Give me Dallas plus the points. | |||||||
09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
Green Bay @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Minnesota +1.5 (5*) I am not crazy about the Green Bay Packers wide receiver group and especially when compared to what they had at that position in recent years. The loss of Devante Adams who signed with Las Vegas was a huge blow. Minnesota is coming off a disappointing 8-9 season which ended the 8-year head coaching tenure of Mike Zimmer. However, they still have top shelf offensive skilled players that can create opposing defenses nightmares. Any NFL home team (Minnesota) that’s facing a division opponent in their season opener, and they won 8 or more regular season games the year before, resulted in those home teams going 83-30 SU (73.4%) since 1985. The SU results take on added significance since the Vikings are currently a small underdog. Furthermore, if those home teams were an underdog of +6.0 or less, and they were facing an opponent which won 11 or more regular season games the year before, those home teams went 7-0 ATS and 6-1 SU since 1985. Give me the Vikings plus the small number. | |||||||
09-11-22 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +7 | 44-21 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Arizona 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Arizona +7.0 (-120) (5*) Since Kliff Kingsbury head coaching tenure began in 2019, the Cardinals have been quite successful in getting off to good starts. Specifically speaking, during that time span Arizona has gone 10-2 ATS and 8-3-1 SU as an underdog during its first 8 games of the season. Furthermore, since 2020, Arizona is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in Games 1 through 8 and won by an extremely impressive 19.4 points per contest. The Cardinals franchise has enjoyed much success as a non-conference home underdog by going 21-7 ATS (75%) and 19-8-1 SU. If they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests, the numbers improve to 18-4 (81.8%) ATS and 16-5-1 SU. Give me the Cardinals plus the points. | |||||||
09-11-22 | Giants +5.5 v. Titans | Top | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*) Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best. The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span. Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play. | |||||||
09-11-22 | Steelers +7.5 v. Bengals | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Pittsburgh +7.5 (5*) Since the start of the 2016 season, when play in games 1 through 9, Pittsburgh has gone an extremely profitable 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 9-3 SU as an away underdog of 9.5 or less. The Steelers will have revenge on their mind after being swept in both regular season meetings against Cincinnati last season. The Steelers finished an uninspiring 8-8-1 last season but somehow it was good enough for the last Wild Card berth in the AFC. Any Game 1 division away underdog of 7.0 or less that lost both regular season meetings to their current opponent in the previous year, resulted in those away underdogs going 18-6 ATS (75%) since 1998. Furthermore, if those division away teams were an underdog of +3.5 to +6.5, then that exact NFL betting angle improves to 16-2 ATS (88.9%). Give me Pittsburgh plus the points. | |||||||
09-10-22 | Houston +3.5 v. Texas Tech | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 54 h 33 m | Show | |
Houston @ Texas Tech 4:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Houston +3.5 (5*) Texas Tech is coming off last Saturday’s 63-10 rout of Murray State and covered as a 38.0-point home favorite. Since 2020 the Red Raiders 0-4 SU&ATS off an ATS cover and when facing an opponent coming off a SU win. Texas Tech lost those 4 contests by an average of 25.6 points per game. Houston went 12-2 last season losing only to College Football Playoff participant Cincinnati and ironically enough Texas Tech. So, obviously the Cougars will be out for big time revenge. They almost got looking ahead in last week’s season opening 37-35 road win versus defending Conference USA champion UTSA. That was an experienced UTSA team that went 12-2 last season and began 2021 with a perfect 11-0 record. Give me Houston plus the points. | |||||||
09-10-22 | Tennessee v. Pittsburgh +6.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
Tennessee @ Pittsburgh 3:30 PM ET Game# 347-348 Play On: Pittsburgh +6.5 (10*) Tennessee is coming off an encouraging 59-10 home blowout win in their season opener last Saturday and easily covered as a 37.0-point favorite. Regardless of that emphatic win, Tennessee has gone a dismal 0-5 ATS and 2-3 SU in their last 5 as an away favorite of 2.0 or greater. Pittsburgh is the higher ranked team, and the defending ACC champions. Yet, here they are as a touchdown underdog at home. Normally I would side with the sportsbooks in situations such as these, and then label it as a sucker play. Nevertheless, this is one of those very rare occasions I don’t have that mindset and falls under the category of there’s an exception to every sports betting rule. Recent seasons have displayed have shown me that when you disrespect Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers, it’s like poking the bear who was hibernating in his winter cave. Any college football Game 2 non-conference home underdog of 9.0 or less (Pittsburgh) that’s coming off a non-conference home SU win, but either pushed or failed to cover, versus an opponent (Tennessee) coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 8.0 or more, resulted in those home underdogs going 14-0 ATS since 2002. Those underdogs also won 10 of those 14 games outright. Give me Pittsburgh plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. | |||||||
09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 53 h 5 m | Show | |
Colorado @ Air Force 3:30 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Air Force -17.0 (5*) This one jumped right off the page at me. We have a service academy team from the Mountain West Conference as a more than 2-touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the underdog. Well, I’m not falling for the bait. Colorado opened the season last Saturday with a terrible effort in a 38-13 blowout loss at home to TCU. That’s a TCU team that was playing with a new coaching staff and a large turnover in personnel. Furthermore, Colorado went 0-5 SU&ATS on the road last season and lost by 17.4 points per game. Air Force easily handled a good FCS program in Northern Iowa while walking away with a convincing 48-17 home win. The Falcons had an enormous 691 yards of total offense in that victory. Since 2020, Air Force has gone 3-0 SU&ATS as a double-digit home favorite versus FBS opponents and won by 25.3 points per game. Moreover, during that identical time span, Air Force was 6-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they had 475 yards or more of total offense. Give me Air Force minus the points. | |||||||
09-10-22 | Alabama v. Texas +21 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 42 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 335-336 Play On: Texas +21.0 (5*) You would have to be crazy to bet against Alabama after seeing them squash Utah State last week 55-0 and outgained them in total yards by 559-136. That would be the opinion of a vast majority of bettors this week based on early returns. Nonetheless, this line moved quickly from the opening number of 17.0 to 20.0. There also has been more than 80% of tickets and money wagered going on Alabama. The sportsbooks win a heck of a lot more than they lose when the betting trends are so lopsided toward one side. Besides, it’s not like Texas is a horrible team. The Longhorns opened their season with last Saturday’s 52-10 won over UL-Monroe and covered as a huge 37.0-point favorite. Texas pulled of the hat trick in that win by scoring on offense, defense, and special teams. You also know that offensive guru and head coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t come close to unveiling his playbook last week. I’m not willing go out on a limb and call for a Texas outright upset. However, really like their chances of staying inside this sizable number. | |||||||
09-10-22 | North Carolina v. Georgia State +7.5 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 40 m | Show | |
North Carolina @ Georgia State 12:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Georgia State +7.5 (5*) Despite allowing 40 points in the 4th quarter last week at Appalachian State, North Carolina still managed to escape with a thrilling 63-61 win. Apparently by the price that ticket brokers were charging, that game was much bigger in North Carolina than the rest of the country realized. Now the Tar Heels go on the road for a 2nd consecutive week to take on another Sun Belt Conference opponent. Keep in mind, up next for North Carolina is a home game versus nationally ranked Notre Dame. This sets up as a flat spot for the Tar Heels. Additionally, the Tar Heels defense has allowed 84 points and 984 yards during their first 2 games. Georgia State lost their season opener last week 35-14 at South Carolina. However, the 35 points allowed is misleading since they held South Carolina to only 306 yards of total offense. So you can make a strong case that this will be the best defense that North Carolina would have faced so far in 2022. This line opened with Georgia State as a 9.0-point home underdog, and now it’s at 7.5 despite just 37% of tickets bet siding with the home side. Surely it sounds and smells like a sharp money move to me. Give me Georgia State plus the points. | |||||||
09-10-22 | Duke v. Northwestern -9.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
Duke @ Northwestern 12:00 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Northwestern -9.5 (-115) (5*) Duke got off to a shining start last week as they blanked a hapless Temple team 30-0 at home. The red flag for me in that result is the fact that Duke amassed 510 yards of total offense in that contest but only managed to score 30 points. By the way, Duke has gone 0-8 SU&ATS in their last 8 away games and lost by a massive average of 25.6 points per contest. The average closing point-spreads for Duke in those 8 games was +8.5. Northwestern is coming off an impressive 31-28 season opening win over Nebraska in a game that played 2 weeks ago in Dublin, Ireland, and they did so as a closing 10.5-point underdog. The Wildcats racked up 538 yards of total offense in that game. Northwestern has gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home favorite of 4.0 or greater and they won by a decisive margin of 26.8 points per game. The Wildcats will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 30-23 loss at Duke last season. Any college football home favorite of 9.5 or great that’s coming off a double-digit underdog upset win in which they scored 31 points or more, and its playing game 2 through game 7 of their season, resulted in those home favorites going a very profitable 28-8 ATS (77.7%) since 1983. Give me Northwestern minus the points. | |||||||
09-09-22 | Louisville +5.5 v. Central Florida | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Central Florida 7:30 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Louisville +5.5 (5*) Central Florida ran roughshod over South Carolina State in their 56-10 season opening win. However, that was against an opponent that competes at the FCS level and not a “Power 5 Conference” team coming up. Louisville was thoroughly embarrassed in a 31-7 lopsided loss to Syracuse last Saturday in a game they closed as a 5.0-point favorite. I look for the Cardinals to bounce back on Friday evening. The Cardinals have 8 returning starters from a team that scored 42 points and racked up 501 yards of total offense in a win over Central Florida last season. Give me Louisville plus the points. | |||||||
09-04-22 | Florida State +4 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Florida State vs. LSU 7:.0 PM ET Game# 233-234 Play On: Florida State +4.0 (5*) It’s the debut of Brian Kelly as the new head coach of LSU. However, there’s been a huge personnel changeover and with a new coaching staff usually doesn’t equate to teams being sharp early in the season and especially so in their opener. Kelly has brought in 15 players from the transfer portal including former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels. This is a crucial season for Florida State head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have gone an extremely disappointing 8-13 during his first 2 seasons in Tallahassee. They return 9 players each on defense and offense and are #11 nationally in returning production. As a matter of fact, 32% of last year’s starts were by freshmen. Florida State saw 6 of their 12 games last season decided by exactly 3 points and they went 3-3 during those contests. Florida State is coming off last week’s 47-7 blowout win over Duquesne who’s plays at the FCS level. They were able to rack up 638 yards of total offense in that contest and included 406 of those on the ground. Granted the level of competition leaves a lot to be desired but having that game experience and facing an opponent that’s playing their season opener surely will be beneficial. Give me Florida State plus the points. | |||||||
09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State -2.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show | |
Boise State @ Oregon State 10:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Oregon State -2.5 (5*) After recording 10 wins or more for 6 straight seasons excluding 2020 when Boise State played only 7 games due to covid, that streak came to an end under first year head coach Andy Avalos. Oregon State went 7-6 last season and made it to a bowl game for a first time since 2013. Ironically enough, there opponent in that bowl game was Boise State. Last season marked the first time also since 2013 that the Beavers finished with a winning record. It speaks volumes to me when a downtrodden program like Oregon State comes up favorite in this spot versus a perennial Top 25 team. Give me Oregon State minus the points. | |||||||
09-03-22 | Army +2.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
Army @ Coastal Carolina 7:00 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Army +2.5 (10*) Coastal Carolina returns only 7 starters from a program that’s won 11 games in each of their previous 2 quarterbacks. One of those returning starters is Grayson McCall but he won’t have the supporting cast he was afforded last season. Furthermore, Army is adept at dominating time of possession with their triple option running attack which in turn can keep opposing offenses on the sidelines. Coastal ended last season on a streak of 21 consecutive weeks ranked in the Top 25. However, here they are as a short home favorite and the sportsbooks are begging you to take them. Army has gone a combined 18-7 the last 2 seasons under current head coach Jeff Monken. Last year concluded with a 24-22 bowl win over Missouri from the SEC. The Black Knights return 14 starters including 8 on offense. Army will control the clock with long time-consuming scoring drives which will frustrate the Chanticleers. Give me Army plus the small number for a Top Play. | |||||||
09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Houston @ UTSA 3:30 PM ET Game# 223-224 Play On: UTSA +4.0 This is a much bigger game for UTSA than Houston. The Roadrunners rarely get to host a nationally ranked opponent like #24 Houston. Houston returns 13 starters from a team that went 12-2 last season including a bowl game win over Auburn. Yet, this line opened as Houston being 6.5-point favorite and is now down to 4.0. UTSA is no slouch by any means. The Roadrunners went 12-2 last season and won the Conference USA title. It was the best win percentage and numbers of wins in program history. Since head coach Jeff Traylor took over as head coach in 2020, UTSA has gone 11-1 SU at home and that includes 9-0 in their last 9 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. Give me UTSA plus the points. | |||||||
09-01-22 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh -7 | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*) West Virginia went 6-7 last season and returns very little production on both sides of the ball. Pittsburgh went 11-3 last season and won the ACC title. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Kenny Pickett who was a 1st round pick by the Steelers and star wide receiver’s Jordan Addison who transferred to USC. However, they still return 16 starters and were able to grab former USC starting quarterback Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal. Pittsburgh has gone a solid 19-9 in their last 28 at home. Any non-conference college football home favorite of 4.0 to 10.0-points (Pittsburgh) playing in an opening game of the season, and they won 10 games or more during the previous year, and they’ve won 22 or fewer of their last 28 at home, versus an opponent (West Virginia) that won 6 or fewer games in the previous season, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average margin of victory in those 13 contests came by a decisive 20.0 points per game and the average line was 8.0. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points. | |||||||
02-13-22 | Rams -4 v. Bengals | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 28 m | Show |
LA Rams vs. Cincinnati 6:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: LA Rams -4.0 (10*) Cincinnati allowed 55 sacks of their quarterbacks during regular season action. Only Baltimore and Chicago were worse in that statistical category. Conversely, the Rams defense amassed 50 sacks during regular season which was 3rd best among all NFL teams. The Bengals have allowed 12 more sacks in the postseason, and it includes 9 during their upset win at Tennessee. Cincinnati has rushed for less than 100 yards in all 3 postseason games. On the other hand, Los Angeles has limited their 3 postseason opponents to 61 yards or fewer rushing and permitted a mere 3.1 yards per carry. The Rams are coming off a win over bitter division rival San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the Rams are 15-4 SU&ATS immediately following a division game and includes 7-1 SU&ATS if they played at home. The Rams enter the Super Bowl having won 8 of its last 9 games. Their only loss during that stretch came by 3 to San Francisco in a game they squandered a 17-point lead. The Los Angeles running game is much better than their season statistics indicate. They were without star running back Cam Ackers until their regular season finale. Their passing game has been dynamic this season and ranked #5 during NFL regular season action while amassing 273.1 yards per game. They’ll be facing a Cincinnati defense which was 26th against the pass in allowing 248.1 yards per contest. This is a bad matchup for Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati won’t be able to sustain a consistent running game against a stout Rams defense. Furthermore, the Bengals offensive line will struggle mightily in protecting Joe Burrow. That’s not a winning formula by any stretch of the imagination. Give me the LA Rams minus the points. | |||||||
01-30-22 | Bengals +7.5 v. Chiefs | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 19 m | Show | |
Cincinnati @ Kansas City 3:05 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Cincinnati +7.5 (5*) Kansas City is coming off an emotionally draining 42-36 overtime win versus Buffalo last Sunday. The media has pretty much convinced numerous bettors that the AFC Championship Game versus an upstart Cincinnati team is merely a formality. Granted the Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 game. However, their lone loss came to these very same Bengals in a game Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow torched the suspect Kansas City secondary for 422 passing yards. If the Bengals defense steps up in this one, they’ll have an opportunity to pull off an upset. Otherwise, there’s an ample amount offensive firepower for Cincinnati to keep this game competitive and inside the number. Bet Cincinnati plus the points. | |||||||
01-23-22 | Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 10 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Kansas City 6:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Buffalo +2.5 (10*) So, the Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, the higher seed in this matchup, but they’re just a 1.5-point home favorite. The oddsmakers and early sharp money are huge indicators as to who the right side in this contest. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot Chiefs at this small of a number. Granted Kansas City has been exceptional in the 2nd half of the regular season and into the playoffs. However, Buffalo is currently on a 5-game win streak and held those opponents to 15.4 points and 237.2 yards per contest. By the way, the Chiefs have accumulated 378 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 5 games. Nonetheless, Kansas City is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS at home immediately following 4 straight games in which they had 375 yards or more of total offense. The Bills outgained New England by a massive margin of 177 yards during their 47-17 home blowout win last Saturday. Since the start of the 2019-202 season, Buffalo is 8-0 SU on the road following a game in which they outgained their opponent by 100 yards or more and had a decisive average victory margin of 18.4 points per contest. The Bills are one of just a few NFL teams that can match Kansas City’s offensive explosiveness. Bet Buffalo for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -117 | 46 h 42 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Tampa Bay -2.5 (5*) The Rams will receive plenty of public action as an underdog after bettors witnessed last Monday night’s dominating 34-11 win over Arizona. However, they’ll be facing the defending world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS at home this season. The Bucs will also be playing with revenge stemming from 34-24 loss at Los Angeles in Week 3 action. Tampa Bay enters this Divisional Round matchup having won 8 of its last 9 games and covered on 6 of those occasions. Furthermore, the Bucs have gone 14-2 SU this season against all teams who are not named the New Orleans Saints, and that includes 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS at home. At this time of year, winning the turnover battle is usually a precursor to who wins and covers. Tampa Bay has an inspiring turnover margin of +6 during their current 4-game win streak. Additionally, they committed only 1 turnover during that stretch. Conversely, the Rams have committed 11 turnovers in their last 5 away games. Bet Tampa Bay minus the small number. | |||||||
01-22-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Tennessee 4:30 PM ET Game# 301-302 Play On: Cincinnati +3.5 (10*) Tennessee star running back Derrick Henry returns from injury after missing 9 games. However, it’s unlikely he will be given a heavy workload after that long hiatus. The Titans went only 4-3 SU in their last 7 games and included a home loss to lowly Houston. The Titans have allowed 280 yards or more passing 8 times this season. This has been an area of concern for 2 years now, and against a talented young quarterback (Joe Burrow) and group of receivers that Cincinnati possesses, there’s a good chance they’ll be further exposed. Cincinnati has gone 5-2 SU this season versus teams that made the playoffs, and their lone 2 losses came in overtime against Green Bay and San Francisco. Give me Cincinnati plus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
01-17-22 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 11-34 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Cardinals @ Rams 8:15 PM ET Game# 151-152 Play On: Cardinals +4.0 (10*) The Cardinals finished the regular season by losing 4 of its last 5 games. However, Arizona was a terrific 8-1 SU&ATS on the road this season and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. It’s not like they feasted on a bunch of creampuffs. The Cardinals defeated 4 teams that qualified for the playoffs on the road in Dallas, LA Rams, Tennessee, and San Francisco. Conversely, the Rams went just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season. Furthermore, Los Angeles was a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus teams that finished regular season action with a winning record. The road teams won and covered both games between these division rivals this season. Bet Arizona plus the points. | |||||||
01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -12.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 55 h 15 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Kansas City -12.5 (5*) These teams just met in Kansas City just 3 weeks ago and the Chiefs walked away with a 36-10 blowout win. I look for more of the same on Sunday night. Additionally, the Chiefs are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 at home with an average victory margin of 22.0 points per game. Conversely, Pittsburgh is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 non-division contest and were outscored by 21.7 points per game. Bet on Kansas City minus the points. By the way, NFL postseason home favorites of 10.5 or more have gone 9-0 SU&ATS since 2011 and outscored their opponents by an average of 18.7 points per game. | |||||||
01-16-22 | 49ers +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
San Francisco @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: San Francisco +3.0 (10*) Dallas (13-5) is the NFC East champion and finished the regular season going 5-1 SU&ATS in their final 6 regular season contests. Yet, they opened and remain just a 3.0-point favorite versus an opponent that needed to overcome a 17-3 halftime deficit in their final regular season game just to qualify for the postseason. Since 2019, Dallas has gone 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. The 49ers have been chasing the Rams and Cardinals all season when it comes to the NFC West standing and it became clear their only path to the postseason was a wildcard berth. So, they’ve been in win or go home mode over the final few weeks of regular season action. I look for that to pay dividends in this contest. Furthermore, the 49ers have been better on the road than at home this season. San Francisco is 7-2 SU in away games. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the 49ers are 4-1 SU&ATS in away games when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. Bet the 49ers plus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
01-16-22 | Eagles +10 v. Bucs | 15-31 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 5 m | Show | |
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay 1:00 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Philadelphia +10.0 (5*) I was quite surprised when Tampa Bay opened as just an 8.5-point favorite in this game. My personal power numbers which are usually accurate had Tampa Bay as a 10.5-point chalk. Having said that, you would think I would be all over the Bucs but quite the contrary. Like I’ve said may times over the years, I don’t fear the oddsmakers but genuinely respect their ability to set an accurate line. So, my conclusion is this is a fishy line, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take the defending world champion Bucs versus a Philadelphia team which is 9-8 and failed to beat a team all season that finished with a winning record. Bet Philadelphia plus the points. | |||||||
01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills -4.5 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Buffalo -4.5 (10*) Buffalo has scored 27 points or more in each of their last 5 games. Since Sean McDermott has taken over as head coach in Buffalo, the Bills are an unbeaten 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS at home after scoring 25 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2009, Wildcard Round teams that win straight up have gone 47-8 ATS (85.4%). Do you see where I am going with this? I hope so. Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in New England, his Patriots team have gone 36-8 versus Buffalo. However, since the start of last season which coincides with the departure of Tom Brady, New England is 1-3 SU&ATS versus Buffalo. Furthermore, heading into Week 15 of this season, New England held a comfortable 2.0 game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East standings. Then they lost 3 of their last 4 while Buffalo put together a 4-game win streak. One of those defeats was a 33-21 home setback to Buffalo in a game they were outgained 448-288. They will be playing against a Buffalo defense that’s allowed 15 points or fewer and 275 yards or less in each of their last 4 at home. Many people will jump all over a Bill Belichick coached New England team as a playoff underdog. I’m not one of them. Give me Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
Las Vegas @ Cincinnati 4:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Bet On: Las Vegas +6.0 (5*) This is an extremely young and talented Cincinnati team which is way ahead of schedule. Nevertheless, they’ll ne to shake the ghosts of past franchise playoff failures. Cincinnati has lost 8 consecutive playoff games, failed to cover in 7 of those contests, and with 4 of those contests played at home. The Raiders were hanging on by a thread of hope a 5 weeks ago with a 6-7 record with regards to their playoff aspirations. Then they miraculously went on a 4-game win streak and got some help along the way to reach postseason action. They will also be out to avenge a deceiving 32-13 home loss to Cincinnati earlier this season in a contest they were only outgained 288-278. Bet Las Vegas plus the points. | |||||||
01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Alabama 8:27 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Georgia -2.5 (10*) These teams squared off just 5 weeks ago in the SEC Championship game and Alabama won 41-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. The Crimson Tide offense racked up 536 yards versus the vaunted Georgia defense which included a huge day from Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Despite that convincing win, Alabama is currently a 2.5-point underdog, and the public is betting on Alabama like it’s found money on their doorsteps. Even with that poor performance versus Alabama, Georgia’s defense still ranks #1 nationally in points allowed (9.5 PPG) and #2 in yards allowed (254.4 YPG). This elite stop unit was embarrassed versus Alabama and look for them to come up with a huge effort tonight. The Georgia defense has received a plethora of accolades all season and rightfully so. However, Georgia’s offense has quietly averaged a quite impressive 46.6 points scored, and 486.5 yards gained per game over its last 6 contests. That includes racking up 449 yards in the loss to Alabama. The first time these teams met Georgia entered that contest 12-0 and was 99.9% sure that even with a loss they were going to be in the 4-team College Football Playoffs. Conversely, Alabama didn’t have that same luxury since they already had 1 loss on their regular season resume and it was highly improbable they would be part of the 4-team field as a 2-loss team. As a result, the Crimson Tide played with a far higher degree of urgency and desperation than Georgia displayed. I’m betting on Georgia to turn the table on their SEC rival. Lastly, Georgia has lost their last 7 meetings with Alabama, and yet here they are still a favorite in a National Championship Game. Alabama in this matchup. Bet Georgia minus the small number. | |||||||
01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
Chargers @ Raiders 8:20 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: Raiders +3.0 (10*) Whoever wins this game will be in the postseason parade and the loser won’t be a participant. The Chargers are coming off a 34-13 home win over Denver. Nevertheless, the Chargers are 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win. Additionally, they’re 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games when they’re +3.0 to -3.0 and are coming off a win and were outscored by 12.7 points per contest. The Chargers have scored 28 points or more in each of their last 5 games. However, throughout their previous 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 29.3 points and 417.3 yards per game. Moreover, since 2019, the Chargers are 0-6 SU on the road following a game in which they scored 30 points or more and lost by an average of 10.0 points per game. The Raiders are coming off a huge win at Indianapolis last Sunday which extended their unbeaten streak to 3 games. What’s eye catching to me is they won those 3 games despite being having a combined turnover margin of -7. What’s been their main catalyst is a defense that allowed 15.7 points and 218.7 yards per game during this current win streak. Las Vegas will also be out to revenge a 28-14 road loss to the Chargers earlier this season. I look for the Raiders to come up with a huge effort on Sunday night and give their newly ordained city of Las Vegas a taste of playoff football for a first time. Bet the Raiders plus the points. | |||||||
01-09-22 | Patriots v. Dolphins +6.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Dolphins 4:25 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Dolphins +6.5 (5*) Miami was eliminated from playoff contention after last week’s extremely poor performance which resulted in a 34-3 loss at Tennessee. However, there’s a high degree of certainty that the Dolphins aren’t going to just lay down on Sunday. Their track record since Brian Flores took over as head coach in 2019 is indicative of such. During Flores rookie campaign, Miami started 0-7 but rallied to go 5-4 over their last 9 contests. Last season, Miami began 1-3 but proceeded to win 9 of their next 11 games. This season, they started 1-7 then when on a 7-game win streak before last Sunday’s loss halted that hot run. For as much success as Bill Belichick has attained since becoming the head coach in New England, his teams have gone just 9-12 SU and 8-13 ATS in their games at Miami. That includes 2-6 SU&ATS in their last 8 trips to South Florida. Bet the Dolphins plus the points. | |||||||
01-09-22 | 49ers v. Rams -4 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
49ers @ Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Rams -4.0 (5*) The 49ers need a win or a New Orleans loss to Atlanta to make the playoffs. Just because they need the game so badly, doesn’t mean the Rams are going to give it to them. Especially after Loss Angeles was embarrassed at San Francisco earlier this season during a 31-10 shellacking in which the 49ers dominating physically on both sides of the ball. They’ll not only be out to avenge that loss but are 0-5 in their last 5 versus their divisional in stater rival. Besides, with a win on Sunday the Rams clinch the NFC West Division and a #2 seed. I’m looking for an inspired effort by the Rams and for even more reasons that I already mentioned. Bet the Rams minus the points. | |||||||
01-09-22 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -5.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
Seahawks @ Cardinals 4:25 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Cardinals -5.5 (5*) Arizona is still alive in the NFC West Division title chase and #2 seed but they must win for them to have any chance of that occurring. Regardless is they win the division or not, the Cardinals need to build some momentum and confidence going into the postseason. They took a step in the right direction last week with a huge win at Dallas as a 5.5-point underdog which snapped a 3-game losing skid. Arizona won at Seattle on 11/21 by a score of 23-13 and outgained the Seahawks by a wide 413-266 margin. Seattle is coming off a 51-29 home win over Detroit. Nevertheless, the Seahawks are 1-4 SU&ATS this season following a win with their lone win and cover in that precise situation coming against the hapless 4-12 Houston Texans. Kyler Murray will torch a Seahawks defense that’s allowing 270.4 yards passing per game which is 31st in the NFL. On the other hand, Arizona is #8 in passing offense at 255.6 yards per game. Bet Arizona minus the points. | |||||||
01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Lions +3.5 (5*) Green Bay has already clinched the top seed in the NFC and a first-round bye in the upcoming playoffs. Barring something unforeseen, the Packers will rest or give limited playing time to key starters on Sunday in Detroit. Conversely, this is a Lions team that has fought hard this season for head coach Dan Campbell despite their many shortcomings and horrible 2-13-1 record. I don’t expect that kind of effort to wane in their regular season finale at home versus a bitter rival. The Lions are 4-0 ATS and 2-2 SU in its last 4 at home versus Green Bay. Detroit has also lost 5 games this season by 4 points or fewer. The Lions are coming off last week’s 51-29 SU&ATS loss at Seattle. Here’s a hidden gem of a trend, Detroit is 5-0 ATS this season following a game in which they failed to cover. The Lions are also 6-2 SU&ATS in their last 8 games overall. Bet Detroit plus the points. | |||||||
01-09-22 | Steelers v. Ravens -3.5 | 16-13 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Ravens -3.5 (5*) The Ravens enter this week on a 5-game losing streak and their playoff chances hanging by a thread. Yet, they opened as a 6.5-point favorite versus a division rival who has scant playoff hopes as well. The Steelers did stay alive in the playoff hunt with a 26-14 home win over Cleveland last week. Nonetheless, Pittsburgh hasn’t won 2 in a row in a little over 2 months. The drastic line movement in this game is a result of Lamar Jackson being ruled doubtful to play. However, I have no trouble backing Ravens backup quarterback Tyle Huntley who has shown he’s plenty capable when given the opportunity this season. Public betting has backed the underdog Steelers in this matchup. There are worse ideas than betting against public money. Bet the Ravens minus the points. | |||||||
01-09-22 | Titans -10 v. Texans | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Titans @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Titans -10.0 (5*) I predict that Tennessee will jump on Houston early in this matchup and take the Texans will away. Beside the fact, they should’ve learned their lesson already after losing to Houston earlier this season as an identical 10.0-point favorite they currently are. With a #1 seed on the line, and playing with revenge, the Titans will be plenty motivated against the 4-12 Texans. This is a Houston team that’s scored 14 points or fewer on 9 occasions this season and failed to reach 300 yards of total offense in 9 of its last 14 games. They will be up against a Titans defense which has allowed 9.7 points and 251.3 yards over their previous 4 contests. Bet Tennessee minus the points. | |||||||
01-08-22 | Cowboys -3.5 v. Eagles | 51-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Philadelphia 8:15 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Dallas -3.5 (5*) Both teams will be missing key personnel via COVID protocols, illness, or injury. Philadelphia has clinched an NFL wildcard spot and it’s just a matter if they will be the #6 or #7 seed. The Eagles do head into this matchup on a 4-game win streak. However, those wins came against the Jets, Giants, and Football Team (Twice) who have a current combined record of 14-34. As a matter of fact, the Eagles don’t own a win all season versus a team who currently possesses a winning record. On the other hand, Dallas has clinched the NFC East Division, and they’re currently the #4 seed. They can move up to the #2 or #3 seed but they need to win and get a little bit of help. If the season ended today, Dallas would have a tough 1st round matchup versus either the Arizona Cardinals or Los Angeles Rams. All the Cowboys can do is control what they can control and that’s beating Philadelphia. They will do exactly that and by a decisive margin. Dallas has been a solid road team this season while going 6-2. Even more impressive was that 3 of their road opponents and 2 more are still alive for a postseason berth heading into this week. Furthermore, and most importantly, Dallas is a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite this season. Bet Dallas minus the points. | |||||||
01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ Denver 4:30 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Denver +11.0 (5*) The Broncos limp into this regular season finale with a 7-9 record and have gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 games. The biggest issue has been an offense that produced 13 points or fewer in each of those defeats. On the other, the Broncos defense has been strong more times than not this season. As a matter of fact, heading into this week, Denver is #9 in total defense (322.1 YPG), #3 in scoring defense (18.4 PPG), and #7 in pass defense (212.3 YPG). If Denver’s offense is every going to get going it would be on Saturday versus a Kansas City defense that’s #26 in total defense, #27 in sacks, and #28 against the pass. The Kansas City defense is also coming off a game at Cincinnati where they allowed the Bengals to rack up 475 yards or total offense in a 34-31 loss. The Broncos lost at Kansas City 41-21 on 12/5. However, that final score is a bit misleading since Denver outgained Kansas City 464-267 in total yards but shot themselves in the foot with a turnover margin of -3. Since that loss, the Broncos have committed just 2 turnovers in 4 games. Bet Denver plus the points. | |||||||
01-04-22 | LSU +7.5 v. Kansas State | 20-42 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
LSU vs. Kansas State 9:00 PM ET Game# 285-286 Play On: LSU +7.5 (5*) LSU will be missing several players for various reasons in addition to playing with an interim coaching staff. However, there’s still enough talented players and quality depth for them to make this an extremely close game if not pulling off an outright upset. The Tigers defense showed vast improvement in the final third of their regular season schedule. Specifically speaking, LSU held their last 4 opponents 18.5 points and 299.5 yards gained per game. It’s not like they were facing all creampuffs over that stretch with 3 of those contests coming against #1 Alabama, #8 Ole Miss, and #23 Texas A&M. The Bayou Bengals stop unit will be going against a Kansas State offense that was held under 300 total yards in each of their previous 3 games. Bet LSU plus the points. | |||||||
01-02-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -7.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Chargers -7.5 (10*) These teams met just 5 weeks in Denver and the Broncos walked away with an easy 28-10 win. Yet, the oddsmakers weren’t deterred by that result based in this current point-spread. Additionally, Denver is coming off a pir of deflating losses 15-10 versus Cleveland and 17-13 to Las Vegas. That really put a dent into their postseason hopes and their overall confidence level. Los Angeles is also coming off losses to Houston 41-29 as a 13.0-point road favorite and in overtime to Kansas City. As a result, the Chargers are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in with an 8-7 record. The Chargers will be facing a Denver team which has struggled to score at times this season. As a matter of fact, Denver has scored 13 points or fewer in 6 of their last 12 games. That hasn’t been the Chargers problem of late. During their last 4 outings, Los Angeles has averaged 33.8 points scored and 407.8 yards gained per game. NFL betting history show that teams like the Chargers in this exact situation have passed the test with flying colors. Any division favorite of 4.5 or greater that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a non-division straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 16-0 ATS since 1985. Furthermore, they won those contests by an enormous 20.3 points per game and their average line was -7.2. Bet the Chargers minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
01-02-22 | Falcons v. Bills -14.5 | 15-29 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Atlanta @ Buffalo 1:00 PM ET Game# 107-108 Play On: Buffalo -14.5 (5*) Atlanta is coming off a narrow 20-16 home win over hapless Detroit Lions (2-12-1) which improved their season record to 7-8 and still alive for an NFC wildcard spot. However, Atlanta has beaten just 1 team that currently has a winning record, and that was Miami (8-7). The Falcons have gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 following a win and were outscored by an average of 19.3 points per game. Buffalo enters this week 9-6, leading the AFC East, and coming off a huge win at New England last Sunday. Some will say they’re vulnerable to a flat spot. I disagree with that idea. It’s not like the Bills win over New England came in Week 8. Heading into their final 2 games both at home knowing with wins they clinch the AFC East Division for a 2nd year in a row. Buffalo also learned their lesson earlier this season when they lost at Jacksonville as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, all 9 Buffalo wins have come by 12 points or more, and they have outscored their opponents by an average of 10.9 points per game which is #1 in that category amongst all NFL teams. Lastly, Buffalo is 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a double-digit home favorite and with an average victory margin of 24.0 points per game. Bet Buffalo minus the points. | |||||||
01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 115-116 Play On: Bengals +4.5 (5*) Cincinnati will play with a higher degree of urgency and desperation in this contest than Kansas City will display. The Chiefs have won 8 consecutive games and has already clinched the AFC West Division. Yes, they are only 1.0 game ahead of Tennessee for the top AFL seed with the Titans holding the tiebreaker. Nevertheless, the Chiefs have been a great road team in recent seasons and are a much better team than Tennessee at this juncture. The point being, Kansas City comes into this contest knowing they have a lot of room for error and very little to lose. On the other hand, Cincinnati can clinch the AFC North with a win on Sunday. If they lose, then it’s a regular season finale at Cleveland which could hinge on even making the playoffs. Bet the Bengals plus the points. | |||||||
01-02-22 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Titans | 3-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: Dolphins +3.5 Tennessee (10-5) may possess the better record in this matchup, but you can make a strong cast that presently Miami (8-7) is the superior team. After a 1-7 start, Miami has won 7 straight games and covered on 6 of those occasions. The Dolphins sizzling hot run has catapulted them to the AFC #7 seed and final wildcard spot. Even with that, Miami knows they have very little if any room for error. I’ve been saying this for weeks now, without Derek Henry, Tennessee is a fraudulent Super Bowl contender. This upcoming result will exemplify just that. Bet the Dolphins plus the points. | |||||||
01-01-22 | Utah +4 v. Ohio State | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Utah vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET Game# 281-282 Play On: Utah +4.0 (10*) Ohio State had the much higher aspirations this season of winning a national championship compared to Utah. Nevertheless, they failed to even reach the Big 10 Championship Game and were dominated in a 42-27 loss to Michigan during their regular season finale. The Buckeyes will be missing their top 2 wide receivers in this contest who combined to score 25 touchdowns and amass just shy of 2000 receiving yards this season. Utah has won its first ever PAC-12 Championship in football and will be making their Rose Bowl debut. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll have an emotional edge in this game as a result. Not to mention, Utah enters this contest on a 6-game win streak which included a pair of blowout wins over #15 Oregon. All 3 Utah losses this season have come by single-digit margins. Bet Utah plus the points for my “Bowl Game of the Year”. | |||||||
01-01-22 | Kentucky -3 v. Iowa | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 25 h 58 m | Show | |
Kentucky vs. Iowa 1:00 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Kentucky -3.0 (5*) Iowa is coming off a humiliating 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship game. As good as Iowa’s record is, the Hawkeyes have failed to record a win versus a current Top 25 team this season. Iowa’s offensive production has left a lot to be desired. The Hawkeyes scored 17 points or fewer in 4 of its last 7 games and they have averaged only 293.7 yards gained per contest this season. This is an intriguing matchup between #25 Kentucky (9-3) and #17 Iowa (10-3). Yet, the lower ranked Kentucky Wildcats are the favorite and I trust the oddsmakers unequivocally more than the pollsters. Kentucky finished the season on a 3-game win streak in which they outscored those opponents by a combined 142-54. Kentucky went 3-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of 6.0 or less. The Wildcats will be more excited and ready to play in the New Year’s Day bowl game. Bet Kentucky minus the points. | |||||||
01-01-22 | Arkansas v. Penn State +2.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
Penn State vs. Arkansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Penn State +2.5 (5*) Penn State may be 7-5 but they’re a lot better than their record indicates. All 5 of the Nittany Lions losses came by single digit margins and that includes 4 defeats by 4 points or fewer. Their last 3 losses came against #7 Ohio State (10-2) by 9, #2 Michigan (12-1) by 3, and #11 Michigan State (11-2) by 3. They also lost to #17 Iowa (10-3). Conversely, Arkansas started the season 4-0 and went just 4-4 in their final 4 games. Arkansas is a run-heavy offense which is verified by 64.7% of their offensive snaps being rushing attempts. They Razorbacks will have their hands full against a Penn State defense that has allowed only 106 yards rushing per game and a mere 3.1 yards per attempt. Bet Penn State plus the points. | |||||||
12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 101 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*) Michigan has been a nice story this season in a year that head coach Jim Harbaugh entered on the proverbial hot seat. The former Wolverines quarterback has his team peaking at the right time. Here’s where the issue for me comes in with regards to backing Michigan. The Wolverines have run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays this season and they’ll be facing a Georgia defense which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs stop units is also tied for 4th nationally with 42 sacks. Georgia was embarrassed in their 41-24 SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give them a pass since win or lose they 100% knew a college football playoff invitation awaited. Georgia was a 6.0-point favorite in that defeat. The good news, Georgia is 4-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they failed to cover. They won those 4 contests by a substantial average of 39.5 points per game. The Alabama game was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 17 points. The Bulldogs defense has received much acclaim this season and rightfully so. But don’t sleep on the Georgia offense which scored 41 points or more in 4 of their last 5 and collected 449 yards or greater on each occasion. Bet Georgia minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Cincinnati vs. Alabama 3:30 PM ET Game# 273-24 Play On: Cincinnati +13.5 (5*) I’m among the minority of people who thinks Cincinnati is more than capable of giving Alabama all it can handle in this College Football Playoff Semifinal. Granted, the Crimson Tide routed then #1 Georgia in the SEC Championship game 41-24 while amassing 556 yards of total offense. However, Georgia’s defensive strength is their front 7. Their secondary was exposed against Alabama’s Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Bryce Young who threw for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns. Young has been off the charts good this season. However, the Cincinnati secondary is amongst the finest in all of college football. The Bearcats ranked #2 nationally in passing yards allowed and has a pair of cornerbacks that will be playing on Sundays in the NFL. Cincinnati has a hidden gem of a quarterback in 4-year starter Desmon Ritter who accounted for a combined 36 touchdowns this season running and passing. Ritter has rushed for over 2000 yards and 25 touchdowns in his college career which brings an added dimension for Alabama’s defense to deal with. I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game go right down to the wire and possibly even an outright upset. Nonetheless, I won’t get greedy and take the generous number being afforded to me. Bet Cincinnati plus the points. | |||||||
12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Pittsburgh +3.5 (10*) Both teams will be without their top offensive player. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett is a potential 1st round draft choice who opted out for risk of injury. All Picket did this season was throw for 4319 yards and 42 touchdowns. Michigan State will be without star running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker rushed for 1646 yards and 18 touchdowns this season while averaging a lofty 6.2 yards per carry. It comes down to this for me when handicapping this game. Which difference can make the difference between winning and losing? The answer to this then becomes simple. I unequivocally trust Pitt’s defense more than that of today’s opponent. Pitt is #40 in total defense, #6 in rush defense, and #2 in sacks nationally. Conversely, Michigan State is #117 out of 130 college football FBS teams in total defense and dead last in pass yards allowed. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Oregon vs. Oklahoma 9:15 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Oklahoma -6.5 (5*) Both teams lost their head coach following their final regular season game. Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for the USC job and Oregon’s Mario Cristobal bolted for the Miami Fla. job. I think Oklahoma made a brilliant motivational move by bringing in legendary former Sooners head coach Bob Stoops to take over during this interim period. Besides the loss of Cristobal, Oregon is a shell of the team which we saw upset Ohio State on the road earlies this season and was in the playoff hunt until late in the season. Bet Oklahoma minus the points. | |||||||
12-29-21 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Iowa State vs. Clemson 5:45 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Iowa State +2.5 (10*) #19 Clemson (9-3) and enters this Cheez-It Bowl on a 5-game win streak. Yet, they’re less than a field goal favorite versus unranked Iowa State (7-5). That’s all I need to know and especially considering that Iowa State opened as a favorite in this matchup. Iowa State will be without star running back Breece Hall who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. However, they still have 4-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy who will be playing his final game in a Cyclones uniform. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-29-21 | Maryland -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | 54-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech vs. Maryland 2:15 PM ET Game# 249-250 Play On: Maryland -3.5 (5*) Virginia Tech has lost numerous players via the transfer portal or opting out to prepare for the NFL draft. They will also have to reach way down the depth chart at quarterback after their starter entered the transfer portal and the backup is unavailable as well. Additionally, the Hokies will be playing with an interim head coach due to Justin Fuentes getting fired late in the year and their entire coaching staff is operating in lame duck status. The Hokies finished the season with an upset win over Virginia. However, Virginia Tech has gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 games this season immediately following a loss. Maryland started the season 4-0 and then last 6 of its next 7 games before defeating Rutgers in their last contest to become bowl eligible at 6-6. The Terrapins aren’t very good defensively, but they did score 31 points or more in 7 of its last 8 games, and they’re #14 nationally in passing yards at 307.1 per game. Bet Maryland minus the points. | |||||||
12-28-21 | West Virginia +5.5 v. Minnesota | 6-18 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
West Virginia vs. Minnesota 10:15 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: West Virginia +5.5 (5*) This line makes no sense. Minnesota is 8-4 and less than a touchdown favorite versus a 5-6 West Virginia team who went 2-6 versus teams playing in a bowl game. The Mountaineers enter this Guaranteed Rate Bowl game with some momentum after winning their final 2 regular season contest and surprisingly ending up in a bowl game despite their losing record. You can make a strong case that West Virginia will be far more motivated to play in this bowl game than Minnesota will be. Bet West Virginia plus the points. | |||||||
12-28-21 | Louisville +1.5 v. Air Force | 28-31 | Loss | -116 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
Air Force vs. Louisville 3:15 PM ET Game# 239-240 Play On: Louisville +1.5 (5*) Louisville has played a much tougher regular season schedule than Air Force has and that will pay dividends in this matchup. The oddsmakers and sportsbooks see this as an even matchup despite Louisville being 6-6 and Air Force at 9-3. Those season record disparities and this current line can mislead the novice sports bettors out there. Thankfully, I’m not in that category. Bet on Louisville. | |||||||
12-26-21 | Lions +7 v. Falcons | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Detroit @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Detroit +7.0 (5*) The Falcons are coming off back-to-back road games. The Falcons are 6-8 but a an abysmal 0-5 SU&ATS at home while being outscored by an average of 14.8 points per contest. During the past 3 seasons, Atlanta is 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS in conference home games. All previously mentioned is hardly a stellar resume for the touchdown home favorite. Detroit looks to continue building on positives in what has been otherwise a terrible season. After beginning the season with 8 straight losses, the Lions are a respectable 2-3-1 SU and more importantly from a betting viewpoint an extremely profitable 5-1 ATS. Furthermore, despite being winless on the road, the Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 away games. Bet Detroit plus the points. | |||||||
12-26-21 | Rams v. Vikings +3.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Minnesota +3.5 (5*) The Rams are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 and are now tied with Arizona for the NFC West Division lead with both teams at 10-4. However, since 2019, and all under current head coach Sean McVeigh, the Rams are a dismal 1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU in road games following 2 or more consecutive wins. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach in Minnesota, the Vikings are 28-11 SU and 26-13 ATS in regular season non-division home games. That team trend with Zimmer takes on even more added significance in this case since the Vikings are an underdog of better than a field goal. Furthermore, I’m of the opinion that this matchup gives a slight edge to Minnesota regarding the degree of urgency and desperation at stake. There’s on thing for certain, with or without Dalvin Cook, this is the best looking 7-7 team I’ve seen in quite some time. Bet Minnesota plus the points. | |||||||
12-26-21 | Bills +2.5 v. Patriots | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
Buffalo @ New England 1:00 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Buffalo +2.5 (5*) New England is at home, has a 1.0-game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East, is 7-1 in their last 8, and just won at Buffalo 14-10 during a Week 13 Monday night nationally televised game. Additionally, they embarrassed the Bills by winning despite throwing a mere 3 passes in the contest. Yet, here they are as less than a field goal favorite at home in a game if they win would result in an AFC East title. Think like an oddsmaker in this spot. He’s set the bait for bettors to perceive New England as being a logical pick. I have no problem being illogical just this once (laugh). Bet Buffalo plus the small number. | |||||||
12-23-21 | 49ers -3 v. Titans | 17-20 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
San Francisco @ Tennessee 8:20 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (5*) The line at the time of this writing tells me everything I need to know. We have an 8-6 San Francisco team as a road favorite versus 9-5 Tennessee in Week 16 of the season. Let’s face it, Tennessee hasn’t been the same offensively since losing star running back Derek Henry to an injury. The Titans have lost 3 of their last 4 and averaged a mere 14.7 points scored per game during that stretch while also committing an alarming 13 turnovers. San Francisco is playing their best football at the most opportune time. The 49ers are 5-1 SU&ATS in their last 6 and had a +7 turnover margin while doing so. The 49ers are also a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 non-division games with an average victory margin of 12.0 points per contest. Bet San Francisco minus the points. | |||||||
12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +3 | 27-14 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
North Texas vs. Miami-Ohio 3:30 PM ET Game# 291-292 Play On: North Texas +3.0 (5*) Somehow the MAC has 7 teams invited to bowl games and that includes Miami-Ohio who went just 5-6 this season. The early results haven’t been very good as MAC teams are 0-4 thus far. Miami posted just 1 win all season versus an opponent with a winning record. They lost their regular season finale 48-47 to Kent State in a game they allowed 303 yards rushing. That’s not a good sign in regards to this Frisco Football Classic matchup against an opponent in North Texas that has rushed for 321 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. North Texas started the season 1-6 but then finished 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 while winning by a sizable margin of 19.6 points per game. It must be noted, North Texas routed nationally ranked UTSA in their regular season finale 45-23 in a game the Roadrunners entered with a perfect 11-0 record. Bet North Texas plus the points. | |||||||
12-22-21 | Missouri +7 v. Army | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
Missouri vs. Army 8:00 PM ET Game# 225-226 Play On: Missouri +7.0 (5*) Public betting trends have heavily sided with Army since the opening line for this Armed Forces Bowl matchup has been dropped. As a matter of fact, Army has gone from an opening 3.0-point favorite to as high as 7.0 at the time of this writing. Part of the reason for this huge line move is that Missouri will be without star running back Tyler Badie who accounted for for 1934 total yards from scrimmage and scored 18 touchdowns this season. Brady Cook has been named the starter at quarterback for Missouri which is a bit of a surprise when considering his limited experience. However, since arriving on campus last season Cook has gone 25-31 passing for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns versus 0 interceptions. Missouri is a balanced offensive team that averages 36 runs and 35 passes per game. Missouri is an uninspiring 6-6 heading into the bowl season. Nevertheless, 4 of their 6 wins came over bowl participants and their regular season schedule saw them face 10 of 12 opponents that will be playing in postseason games. Army is a deceiving 8-4 when considering 1 of their wins came against Bucknell that plays at the FCS level in addition to victories over Massachusetts and Connecticut who are arguably the worst FBS programs in college football. Army is also coming off an upset loss to bitter rival Navy (4-8) 17-13 in a game their potent rushing attack was held to 124 yards which is 154 yards below its season average. The similarity between Navy and Missouri is both played a much tougher slate than the Black Knights. Bet Missouri plus the points. | |||||||
12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | 10-20 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Seattle @ LA Rams 7:00 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Seattle +7.0 (5*) Seattle is 5-8 but unlike some teams with that poor of a record this late in the season they won’t be waving the white flag with Pete Carroll as their head coach. As a matter of fact, the Seahawks have won and covered their last 2 which included an upset of San Francisco. The Rams are coming off a huge Monday night national televised win over NFC West Division leading Arizona. However, the Rams were one of the hardest hit teams by COVID this week which caused this game to be rescheduled from Sunday until today. Their meetings have been held virtually this week since they were 1 of 7 NFL teams placed under the heading of emergency COVID protocol. It would be hard to imaging they will be sharp mentally or physically headed into this matchup. Winning the game is one thing but asking Los Angeles to cover this sizable of a point-spread under their current circumstances is a difficult ask. Bet Seattle plus the points. | |||||||
12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Baltimore 4:25 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Baltimore +7.0 I like the Ravens with or without Lamar Jackson. I assume at +7.0 it will be Tyler Huntley at quarterback. If Lamar gets the green light and get medical clearance on his injured ankle, then we aren’t going to be getting 7.0 points it will be more like 3.5 or 4.0 and that’s still fine. Tyler Huntley has accounted himself well when called upon this season. He was the starter in place of the injured Jackson at Chicago when the Ravens walked away with a 16-13 win. Last week, he just came up short of rallying Baltimore from a 24-6 halftime deficit at Cleveland, but the Ravens fell 24-22. Baltimore has gone 4-0 in non-division home games this season which includes wins Kansas City (10-3), LA Chargers (8-5), Indianapolis (7-6), and the best 6-7 team in years the Minnesota Vikings. Baltimore has gone 8-0 SU&ATS during the last 4 weeks of regular season action over the last 2 years and won by a decisive margin of 17.8 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, Baltimore is a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 3 losses by Green Bay this season were sustained away from Lambeau Field. They also escaped with narrow road wins by 3 in overtime versus Cincinnati, by 3 over Arizona, and 2 against San Francisco. It’s inevitable that Green Bay will win the NFC North and that may transpire as soon as the Vikings and Bears Monday night game goes final. I just firmly believe that a Jim Harbaugh coached Ravens team will be difficult for Green Bay to pull away from regardless of the adversity they may be facing. Bet Baltimore plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-19-21 | Jets v. Dolphins -9 | 24-31 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
NY Jets @ Miami 1:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Miami -9.0 (5*) Miami is coming off their bye week after going 5-0 SU&ATS in the preceding 5 weeks. During this current win streak, the Dolphins allowed 9.0 points per game. Since last season, Miami has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS versus the Jets and won by an average of 16.0 points per game. Since 2019, Miami is an unscathed 4-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 and won by 13.7 points per game. The Jets offense has averaged a mere 16.7 points scored per game throughout their previous 5 outings. Additionally, New York has averaged just 267.6 total yards of offensive per game over its last 3 contests. Since 2019, the Jets are 1-7 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 9.5, lost all 8 straight up, and were outscored by a sizable margin of 17.7 points per game. Bet on Miami minus the points. | |||||||
12-18-21 | Marshall +4.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 21-36 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
Marshall vs. UL-Lafayette 9:15 PM ET Game# 217-218 Play On: Marshall +4.5 (5*) We have #16 UL-Lafayette who has won 12 straight games since losing their season opener at Texas as just a 4.0-point favorite versus a 7-5 Marshall team from Conference USA. This game has trap written all over it as they’re pleading with you to take the ranked favorite at an inviting number over an opponent who’s mediocre on paper. Not to mention, this game is being played in New Orleans, Louisiana. If it smells like a rat, looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Give me Marshall plus the points. | |||||||
12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Oregon State @ Utah State 7:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -7.0 (10*) Utah State crushed San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game 46-13 in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies enter this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl having won 7 of their last 8 yet find themselves as a touchdown underdog versus a 7-5 Oregon State team. This is one of those situations where I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more than what may appear to be obvious underdog betting value. As opposed to most Power 5 Conference teams playing opponents from the Group of 6 Conferences, Oregon State is delighted to be playing in a bowl game and will be plenty motivated. Especially when considering that Oregon State went a dismal 10-32 during the previous 4 seasons. Bet Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-18-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Liberty -9.5 | 20-56 | Win | 100 | 26 h 51 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty 5:45 PM ET Game# 213-214 Play On: Liberty -9.5 (5*) The Liberty Flames are coming off a disappointing 7-5 season which included finishing regular season play 0-3 SU&ATS. Nevertheless, they find themselves as a sizable favorite against an Eastern Michigan team that sports an identical 7-5 record. It must be noted, those last 3 losses by Liberty came to #8 Ole Miss (10-2), #16 UL-Lafayette (12-1) and Army (8-4). The Flames also own 4 wins over teams participating in bowl games. Liberty has outgained their opponents by 112.7 yards per game this season. Conversely, Eastern Michigan has been outgained by 49.4 yards per contest. Bet on Liberty minus the points. | |||||||
12-18-21 | UAB +7 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
UAB vs. BYU 3:30 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: UAB +7.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me. BYU is ranked #12 in the country with a stellar 10-2 record. They have quality wins over #10 Utah, Mountain West Conference Champion Utah State, in addition to bowl teams Arizona State, Washington State, and Virginia. Additionally, BYU finished regular season action on a 5-game win streak. Yet here they are playing in the low-profile Independence Bowl against a team from Conference USA with an 8-4 season record. There’s no doubt in my mind that UAB will be more motivated to be playing BYU than visa-versa. When it comes to minor bowl games motivation is a key handicapping component to consider. UAB has unequivocally faced the weaker schedule of these 2 teams. However, they did give #24 UTSA (12-1) all they can handle in a 34-31 road loss in a game they outgained the Roadrunners 474-375. Bet UAB plus the points. | |||||||
12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois 6:00 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Coastal Carolina -10.5 (10*) Northern Illinois is the MAC Champion that comes into this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando Florida with a 9-4 record. However, they allowed 40 points or more in each of their 4 losses and were outgained by an average of 26.1 yards per game. Conversely, Coastal Carolina averaged 40.4 points scored per game and outgained their opponents by an average of 166.3 yards per contest. They will be facing a Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 32.7 points per game this season. Since the start of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone a dominating 8-0 SU&ATS when facing an opponent that allows 31.0 or more points per game and they won by a decisive margin of 20.7 points per contest. Lastly, although Coastal Carolina didn’t reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game despite an outstanding 10-2 record, their 2 losses came by just a combined 5 points. They were that close to going undefeated. Bet Coastal Carolina minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rams @ Cardinals 8:15 PM ET Game# 129-130 Play On: Rams +2.5 (5*) The sportsbooks are giving you the winner based on this current point-spread in my professional opinion. After all, Arizona won at Los Angeles 37-20 earlier this season, leads the Rams by 2-games in the NFC West Standings, and is facing a Los Angeles team that snapped a 3-game losing streak last week with a home win over lowly Jacksonville (2-11). Yet. the Cardinals are a home favorite of less than a field goal. It also must be noted, the Rams are 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games at Arizona and won by an average of 13.5 points per contest. Since 2019, Arizona has gone 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.0 or less. Conversely, since 2019, the Rams are a profitable 13-7 ATS (65%) when their point-spread is between +3.0 to -3.0. Bet the Rams plus the points. | |||||||
12-12-21 | 49ers v. Bengals +2 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
49ers @ Bengals 4:25 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Bengals +2.0 (5*) Cincinnati is coming off last Sunday’s 41-22 blowout loss to the Cargers in a game they closed as a 3.0-point home favorite. That win dropped their season record to a still respectable 7-5. Any NFL team that’s playing in regular season action only and after Game 4, coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 17 points or more, and they currently have a winning record, resulted in those teams going 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS since the start of the 2014-2015 season. As impressive as that 93.8% ATS betting angle is, the unbeaten SU record takes on added significance since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Bet the Bengals plus the small number. | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bills +3.5 v. Bucs | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
Bills @ Buccaneers 1:00 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Bills +3.5 (5*) The Bills are coming off an extremely disappointing 14-10 Monday night home loss to New England. They allowed over 200 yards rushing and will down in NFL annals in rare company after losing a game when the opponent had 2 passing days or less. Being that a national television audience witnessed that performance, I fully expect public betting to back Tampa Bay. I never have an issue when it requires going against public betting patterns. This is one of those instances. Bet the Bills plus the points | |||||||
12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Lions @ Broncos 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Broncos -10.5 (5*) Detroit is coming off their 1st win of the season in last Sunday’s walk off win over Minnesota. However, NFL teams that are playing after Game 11 of their season, and they’re an underdog of from 7.0 to 114.0 points, resulted in those 1st time winners going 0-5 SU&ATS since 1981. They lost those 5 contests by a decisive margin of 24.2 points per game. This is rare air for Denver at home with no pun intended. Since Vic Fangio took over as head coach for the Broncos in 2019, they’ve only been a home favorite of 7.5 or greater twice and covered on each occasion. Denver is coming off last Sunday’s 22-9 loss at Kansas City. During Vic Fangio’s current tenure, Denver has gone 6-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. Bet the Broncos minus the points. | |||||||
12-12-21 | Raiders v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 9-48 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Raiders @ Chiefs 1:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Chiefs -9.5 (10*) After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders have gone on to lose 4 of its last 5 games. Las Vegas scored 16 points or fewer in all 4 of those defeats. Kansas City enters this week on a 5-game win streak in addition to covering each of its last 3. It’s the Chiefs defense and not their offense that has been the catalyst throughout those 5 Kansas City wins. Furthermore, and since 2019, the Chiefs are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in their previous 2 contests while winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. Lastly, Kansas City walloped the Raiders during their earlier season meeting in Las Vegas by a final score of 41-14. The Chiefs had a huge total offense yards edge of 516-299. Bet the Chiefs minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-11-21 | Navy +7 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Navy vs. Army 3:00 PM ET Game# 103-104 Play On: Navy +7.0 (5*) Don’t be misled by the disparity in the 2 team’s records. Navy is 3-8 and Army is 8-3. However, Navy has far and away played the tougher schedule. The Midshipmen have gone up against #4 Cincinnati, #5 Notre Dame, and #21 Houston. The only lopsided loss out of the 3 came at Notre Dame 34-6. The other 2 games saw the Middies cover each in a 28-20 loss at Houston as a 20-point underdog and a 27-20 loss Cincinnati as a 29.0-point dog. The only ranked opponent that Army faced this season was #20 Wake Forest and they suffered a 70-56 loss in that contest. The Black Knights allowed Wake Forest to rack up 638 yards of total defense and were outclassed from the start. This contest goes right down to the wire, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see an outright upset. Nevertheless, I won’t get greedy and take the number being given to me. Bet Navy plus the points. | |||||||
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (-122) (10*) New England has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games and enters this contest the hottest team in the NFL. Additionally, the Patriots have gone 5-0 on the road this season. Yet, here they are as a road underdog versus a Bills team that’s just 3-3 in their last 6 games. Like I said on many occasions, it’s rarely that east when it comes to sports betting and tonight’s game will be a prime example of such. It also must be noted, 4 of the 5 road wins by New England have come over teams that currently have a losing record in the Jets (3-9), Texans (2-10), Panthers (5-7), and Falcons (5-7). The lone exception was their win at the Chargers (7-5). New England is coming off a 36-13 home win over Tennessee last Sunday. However, that final score is a bit deceiving since they only were able to Buffalo is coming off a 31-6 blowout win at New Orleans in a game they held the Saints to a mere 146 passing yards. Since 2019, Buffalo is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards and includes 4-0 SU&ATS (+16.2 PPG) at home. Furthermore, since 2019, Buffalo is 5-0 SU at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer and they won by an average of 13.8 points per contest. Kudos to the New England Patriots and future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick for the masterful job he’s done so far this season. Nonetheless, Buffalo is the better team in this matchup and they’ll make a huge statement tonight to fulfill that statement. Bet Buffalo minus the small number for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
Denver @ Kansas City 8:20 ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Kansas City -9.5 (10*) The public has jumped all over Denver to cover this contest as of this writing. Nonetheless, I’m here to tell you they’re dead wrong. Yes, I know the Chiefs have been a terrible play on as a home favorite this season and last. I also know Denver is coming off an impressive 28-13 home win over the Chargers and recently blew out Dallas in Arlington. It doesn’t matter, because I don’t see this as a favorable betting situation for the sizable road underdog. The Chiefs seemed to sleepwalk through the first half of the season and frankly looked uninspired. However, Kansas City has recently caught fire and enter this week on a 4-game win streak. The most encouraging part of that successful run was the play of their defensive unit. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 11.7 points and 294.0 yards per game while also forcing 8 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve owned the Broncos in recent seasons while going 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS against them. Lastly, Kansas City is just 1.0 game ahead of Denver in the standings, yet they are more than a touchdown favorite. It sure feels like the sportsbooks are baiting to take the road underdog. Thanks, but no thanks. Bet on Kansas City minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-05-21 | Washington Football Team +1.5 v. Raiders | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
Washington @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Washington +1.5 (5*) The only thing consistent about the Raiders this season has been their inconsistency. That’s especially been the case since former head coach Jon Gruden was let go. Which team is going to show up? The one that has wins over the Cowboys, Ravens, and Denver, or losses against the Giants (4-7) and Bears (4-7). My strong feeling is we’ll see the latter. The raiders have lost 3 of their last 4 at home. Don’t look now but after a 2-6 start to the season, Washington has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. They currently are holding down the final NFC wildcard position as a result. What’s even more encouraging, the highly touted Washington defense is finally living expectations after floundering through the first 6 games of the season. During the last 5 contests, Washington has allowed 19.0 points and 282.8 yards per game while facing opposing quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson. Bet the Washington Football Team. | |||||||
12-05-21 | Chargers +3 v. Bengals | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
LA Chargers @ Cincinnati 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: LA Chargers +3.0 (5*) Cincinnati has been and will continue to be a heavily bet side in this matchup. Public bettors tend to have a short memory and overreact at times to what has transpired in the last couple of weeks. With that being said, the Chargers are coming off a poor performance in a 28-13 loss at Denver last Sunday. However, it’s worth noting that the Chargers are 3-1 SU following a loss this season and includes 2-0 SU&ATS in away games. Cincinnati is coming off impressive wins over Las Vegas 32-13 and Pittsburgh 41-10. Despite those 2 high scoring outputs, the Bengals averaged just 329.0 yards of total offense per game and benefitted from forcing 5 turnovers. Let us not forgot, Cincinnati is just 3 weeks removed from suffering back-to-back losses to the Jets (3-8) and Browns (5-6) while allowing a combined 75 points during those defeats. The Chargers have failed to cover their previous 3 games. On the other hand, Cincinnati has covered their last 2 contests. Any NFL team that’s +3.0 to -3.0 (Chargers) that failed to cover in 3 more games in a row and is facing an opponent (Bengals) who covered 2 or more games in a row, resulted in those teams on an ATS losing streak to go 35-7 ATS (80%) since 2012, 19-2 ATS since 2017, and 11-0 ATS since 2019. Bet the Chargers plus the points. | |||||||
12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
Iowa vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*) Give a lot of credit to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff for getting Iowa to the Big 12 Championship game despite some glaring offensive weaknesses. Case in point, the Hawkeyes averaged just 20.7 points per game in their final 7 Big 10 Conference games. Unquestionably the Hawkeyes defense has been the catalyst to a successful 10-2 regular season campaign. Nonetheless, Michigan’s defense has been superb as well. The Wolverines are #14 nationally in total defense and #8 in scoring while allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Conversely, Iowa is 123rd out of 130 Division 1 teams in total offense at only 299.3 yards per game. The defenses comparisons are a wash since both units are elite. The telling difference in us covering this spread will be Michigan’s offense which is #20 nationally in total yards. The Wolverines offense is especially difficult to defend since their yards gained between run and pass are almost identical. Bet Michigan minus the points for a Top Play wager. | |||||||
12-04-21 | Wake Forest +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 26 m | Show | |
Wake Forest vs. Pittsburgh 8:00 PM ET Game# 319-320 Play On: Wake Forest +3.5 (5*) This is an intriguing matchup just from the standpoint that we have a ACC Championship Game without Clemson for a first time in 7 years. No other team besides Clemson has won an ACC title since Florida State did it in 2014. The Panthers are 10-2 with a pair of head scratching home losses to Western Michigan and Miami. Pittsburgh is #6 nationally in run defense. However, teams have had success throwing the ball against the Pitt defense. Pitt ranks #113 out of 130 Division 1 teams in pass defense at 261.1 yards allowed per game in the air. They will be facing a Wake Forest passing attack that averages 315.5 yards passing per game which is 11th best nationally. The Demon Deacons defense does give up plenty of yards, but they have forced 27 turnovers this season, and are #4 nationally in turnover margin at +12.0. Look for to win the turnover battle and that being a key contributing factor to us getting the cover. Additionally, this contest will be played in the backyard of Wake Forest at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. Bet Wake Forest plus the points. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Calvin King | $1,130 |
Steve Janus | $1,000 |
Dave Price | $913 |
Cole Faxon | $853 |
Michael Alexander | $807 |
Kevin Young | $687 |
Sal Michaels | $683 |
Dustin Hawkins | $547 |
Tom Macrina | $526 |
Brandon Lee | $509 |