|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-25-23||Eagles v. Bucs +5||Top||25-11||Loss||-110||33 h 49 m||Show|
Eagles @ Buccaneers 7:15 PM ET
Play On: Buccaneers +5.0
Both teams are off to 2-0 starts. However, I’ve been more impressed with Tampa Bay so far considering the low expectation level compared to the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defeated New England 25-20 and Minnesota 34-28. Thos teams are a combined 0-4 to start the season. Yet, the Eagles defense allowed 300 yards or more passing in both wins. The Eagles have also been beneficiaries of 6 turnovers committed by those opponents.
Conversely, Tampa Bay didn’t commit a turnover during their 2-0 start while forcing its opponents into 5 giveaways. Tampa is coming off a 27-17 home win over the Bears in which quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 317 yards.
Any NFL Game 3 home underdog that won each of their first 2 games, and their previous win came by 11 points or fewer, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 ATS since 2006. The underdogs also won 8 of those 9 games straight up. Additionally, NFL Monday Night home underdogs of between 2.0 to 5.5-points that are coming off a SU&ATS win and are playing in the first 4 games of the season, resulted in those home underdogs going 6-0 SU&ATS since 2006. The average margin of victory during those 6 contests came by 11.8 points per game. Give me the Buccaneers as my NFL Top Play of the Week.
|09-17-23||Jets v. Cowboys -8||Top||10-30||Win||100||29 h 37 m||Show|
Jets @ Dallas 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Cowboys -8.0
Dallas is coming off a 40-0 blowout road win over the Giants last Sunday night in a game their defense was dominant. The Jets defense will keep them in a game for a while. However, they’ll eventually wear down due to their offense not being able to sustain drives with any consistency.
Any NFL non-division home favorite of 8.0 to 16.0-points like Dallas that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS cover in which they scored 33 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent like the Jets who scored 24 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2004. The average margin of victory in those 8 contests came by a massive 25.6 points per game. Give me Dallas minus points.
|09-10-23||Dolphins v. Chargers -3||Top||36-34||Loss||-105||29 h 8 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Chargers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Chargers -3.0
I think the Chargers are one of the biggest sleepers in an otherwise loaded AFC heading into the season. They possess high quality offensive skilled possession players and a defense that will be vastly improved. The Chargers have gone 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 season openers. Since 2021, Miami is 2-6 ATS and 1-7 SU on the road when there’s a total of 45.5 or greater.
Any NFL Game 1 home team with a point-spread ranging from 0.0 to -5.0 that won 10 games or more the season before, and they’re facing an opponent like Miami that won 8 or more games the season before, resulted in those home teams withing that point-spread parameter going 31-14 ATS (68.8%) since 1989. Those home teams also went 35-10 SU in those contests as well. Give me the Chargers minus points for my NFL Week 1 Top Play.
|02-12-23||Chiefs v. Eagles -120||Top||38-35||Loss||-120||31 h 40 m||Show|
Kansas City vs. Philadelphia 6:30 PM ET
Play On: Philadelphia -120 (5*)
In this sports betting expert’s opinion, Philadelphia is better on both sides of the ball, and the only reason they’re not the favorite in they faced a weaker schedule compared to that of Kansas City.
The Eagles defense far and away has amassed the most sacks this season with 70, and the next best team had 55. Philadelphia also has an extremely potent running game that averages 147.6 yards per game on the ground. Conversely, Kansas City was just #16 against the run and they could’ve been much lower if not for teams having to abandon their running game against them in attempt to overcome sizable 2nd half deficits. Philadelphia is #2 in total defense and #1 against the pass (179.8 PG). The Eagles have only allowed 1 team to accumulate 300 or more pass yards against them this season and that was Dallas at 304. As a matter of fact, the Eagles have allowed 183 yards or fewer passing in each of its last 4 and 7 of their last 8 games. That’s concerning for a Chiefs team that has passed on 60.3% of their offensive plays so far this season.
Give me Philadelphia on the money in Super Bowl LVII.
|01-22-23||Bengals v. Bills -5.5||Top||27-10||Loss||-110||27 h 4 m||Show|
Cincinnati @ Buffalo 3:00 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)
The Cincinnati Bengals have been a betting darling right now and are on a 9-game win streak. However, since the start of the 2011 NFL season, teams that are an underdog of 3.0 or greater that have won 8 of more games in a row have gone 0-7-1 ATS. The Bengals offensive line will be without 2 and possibly 3 starters on Sunday. Cincinnati was very fortunate to escape with a 24-17 home win over Baltimore in the Wildcard Round. They were outgained in that contest by a substantial margin 364-234 yards. If not for a game changing 98-yard fumble return with 10 minutes left with the game tied at 17, the Bengals were in line for a shocking early postseason exit.
Buffalo’s 34-31 win over Miami was extremely deceiving. The Bills outgained the Dolphins in that contest by a massive margin 423-231 yards. The Dolphins were afforded short fields by way of 2 interception returns and a punt return. Miami also scored a defensive touchdown on a strip sack fumble return. Buffalo has been a highly scrutinized team despite their 14-3 season record which includes a current 8-game win streak. As a matter of fact, they’re 3 losses came by just a combined 3-points. Yet, because of the preseason hype which publicized them as a favorite to win the Super Bowl, the Bills have been labeled by many as an overrated team. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are a perfect 4-0 in home playoff games, and cover on both occasions that they were a favorite of 6.0 or less while winning by a enormous average of 22.0 points per game.
NFL Playoff home favorites of 9.0 or less like Buffalo who are coming off a home favorite SU win in which they failed to cover, and there’s a total of 40.0 or greater, versus an opponent like Cincinnati who has a win percentage of .777 or worse, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 5-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin in those 5 contests came by an average of 20.0 points per game, and they covered those outings by an average of 16.1 points per occurrence.
Give me Buffalo minus the points.
|01-21-23||Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 52||Top||20-27||Loss||-110||20 h 18 m||Show|
Jacksonville @ Kansas City 4:30 PM ET
Play On: Over 52.0 (10*)
Since 1/20/2019, Kansas City has played 6-1 to the over in home playoff games with a total of 56.5 or less. Those 7 contests had an average total of 52.2 and there was a combined 66.1 points scored per game.
Jacksonville has played 5-0 to the over in their last 5 non-division away underdog of 9.0 or less, and there was a total of 42.0 or greater. The Jaguars have also played 3-0 to the over in their last 3 when there was a total of 45.5 or greater, and there was a combined 63.0 points per game. The Jaguars enter this Divisional Round matchup riding a 6-game win streak. NFL Playoff teams like Jacksonville who have won 6 or more games in a row, and there was a total of 52.0 or greater, saw those situations play 4-0 to the over and there was a combined 62.3 points scored per occurrence since 2017.
NFL Playoff home favorites of 4.5 or more like Kansas City that are coming off a bye, with a total of 42.0 or more, and they’re coming off 5 or more wins in a row, resulted in those situations playing 11-0 to the under since 1990. The average total in those games was 47.5 and there was a combined 55.5 points scored per game.
Give me this game to go over the total.
|01-08-23||Lions v. Packers -4.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||26 h 16 m||Show|
Detroit @ Green Bay 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Green Bay -4.5 (10*)
Detroit does come in having gone a red-hot 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. However, their defense has horrible against the run over the last 2 games while allowing a combined 520 yards rushing and a massive 8.0 yards per attempt. They will be up against it again against a the superb running back due of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.
Let’s start with the regular season home record of Green Bay. Since the beginning of the NFL 2019-2020 season, the Packers have gone an outstanding 27-4 SU (.871) and 21-10 ATS (68%) in regular season home games. Furthermore, Green Bay is 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 NFC North Division home games. The average line in those games was -9.4 and they won by 19.5 points per contest. Green Bay will be playing with revenge from an earlier season 15-9 loss at Detroit in a game they outgained the Lions by a decisive 135 yards, and only to be victimized by 3 Aaron Rogers interceptions. That’s highly unlikely to occur again. Green Bay enters this regular season finale having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and in a position to guarantee an NFC Wildcard Playoff spot with a win over their division rival.
Any NFL home favorite of 7.0 or less like Green Bay that’s playing in their final regular season finale, and they’ve won 4 or more games in a row, and they covered their previous contest against a division foe while doing so by 7.0 points or more, resulted in those home favorites of 7.0 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average point spread in those 6 contests was 5.0 and there was an substantial average victory margin of 23.2 points per game.
Give me Green Bay minus the points.
|01-01-23||Vikings v. Packers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||27 h 46 m||Show|
Vikings @ Packers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Packers -3.0 (10*)
The Packers will have a high degree of urgency and desperation with their playoff chances hanging in the balance. Since the beginning of the 2019-2020 NFL season, Green Bay has gone 26-4 SU (86.7%) and 20-10 (67%) during their regular season home games. During that exact time span, Green Bay was 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in NFC North Division home games.
Additionally, and since the 2019-2020 NFL season began, Minnesota has gone 1-6 SU&ATS when they were a pick’em/underdog of 3.0 or less. They’ve also gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 in that exact role and lost by an average of 13.0 points per game. They had 2 such instances this year which resulted a 24-7 loss at Philadelphia and 34-23 defat at Detroit.
NFL regular season home favorites of 3.0 or greater like the Packers who are playing after Game 14 and are coming off a win, and they possess a losing record, versus an opponent like Minnesota that has a win percentage of .571 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 ATS since 1983. The average victory margin in those 7 contests came by 13.0 points per game.
Give me Green Bay minus the points.
|12-18-22||Steelers v. Panthers -3||Top||24-16||Loss||-100||22 h 50 m||Show|
Pittsburgh @ Carolina 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Carolina -3.0 (5*)
Carolina is coming off wins at Seattle and versus Denver in their previous 2 games. That improved their season record to 5-8 and only 1.0 game behind NFC South leading Tampa Bay. What was even more --impressive about those 2 wins was the Panthers ability to run the ball with a high degree of success. They rushed for a combined 361 yards in those 2 wins. The Panthers have gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home and all those victories came by 10 points or more. They rushed for 173 yards or more in all 3 of those home wins.
The Carolina defense has been outstanding over their previous 5 contests while allowing only 15.5 points and 283.0 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for a Pittsburgh offense that averages just 15.6 points scored per game on the road. The Steelers defense has allowed a combined 361 yards on the ground and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt in their last 2 games. The Steelers are a deceiving 3-4 on the road this season when considering they’re at -8.8 points and -67.9 yards per game differential during those outings.
Give me Carolina minus the points.
|12-11-22||Bucs v. 49ers -3||Top||7-35||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET
Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*)
Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games.
NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game.
Give me the 49ers minus the points.
|12-04-22||Dolphins v. 49ers -4||Top||17-33||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET
Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*)
Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game.
Give me the 49ers minus the points.
|11-27-22||Bengals v. Titans +1.5||Top||20-16||Loss||-110||17 h 14 m||Show|
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*)
Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog.
|11-24-22||Giants v. Cowboys -10||Top||20-28||Loss||-110||22 h 18 m||Show|
Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*)
Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements.
Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game.
|11-20-22||Cowboys -120 v. Vikings||Top||40-3||Win||100||24 h 44 m||Show|
Dallas @ Minnesota 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Dallas -120 (ML) (10*)
This line jumped right off the board at me when it opened as a pick on Sunday night and quickly ascended to Dallas being a 1.5-point road favorite. Why did my reaction occur? Well, Minnesota is 8-1, Dallas 6-3, and it’s the home Vikings who come up underdog. It’s rarely as easy as it looks when it comes to sports betting, and this is a prime example of such. Most sports bettors would think it’s common sense to take the home underdog versus an opponent they are 2.0 games better than in the standings and especially so when it’s the 2nd half of a season. However, common sense is crucial in everyday life but usually loses you money in the long haul when applicable to sports wagering.
Minnesota would have to lose the rest of their games to squander their NFC North Division lead, and even then, they still could possibly land on top. They’re also coming off what’s considered to be a statement win in overtime at Buffalo last Sunday. Unlike Dallas, their degree of urgency this Sunday will be much lower for Minnesota than that of the Cowboys in my professional opinion. It’s not an exact science when predicting who will be a more desperate team when it comes to NFL betting. Nonetheless, the human response element I expect from these teams on Sunday is more likely to occur in this situation.
Currently, Dallas (6-3) is in 3rd place in the NFC East standing behind the 8-1 Eagles and 7-2 Giants. They have little room for error down the regular season stretch is they aspire to be the NFC East Division champ. So yes, their sense of urgency should and will probably be at a fever high pitch. Lastly, these teams have squared off in each of the previous 2 season, both were played at Minnesota, and Dallas won each SU as an underdog.
Give me Dallas on the money line for my NFL 10* Game of the Year.
|11-13-22||Browns +4 v. Dolphins||Top||17-39||Loss||-110||122 h 6 m||Show|
Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*)
Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL.
Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer.
Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-06-22||Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 49||Top||31-21||Win||100||27 h 5 m||Show|
Seattle @ Arizona 4:05
Play On: Over 49.0 (10*)
Seattle has seen each of their previous 3 away games go over the total and there was an enormous average of 74.7 points per contest. Seattle is coming off a 27-13 home win over the New York Giants which has improved their season record to 5-3 (.625).
Arizona has seen its last 2 go over the total with a combined average of 68.0 points scored per contest. The Cardinals are coming off last week’s 34-26 loss at Minnesota and they now find themselves with an uninspiring 3-4 (.375) season record.
Since 2016, NFL teams with a total of 47.5 or greater who are playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a home win by 13 or more points in which they scored 48 points or fewer, and their win percentage is between .600 to .750, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better (Arizona), resulted in those games playing 32-7 (82%) to the over.
Give me this game to go over the total.
|10-30-22||49ers v. Rams +1||Top||31-14||Loss||-110||27 h 10 m||Show|
San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)
The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4.
NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams.
Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play.
|10-23-22||Colts v. Titans -2.5||Top||10-19||Win||100||24 h 49 m||Show|
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*)
Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry.
Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3.
Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game.
Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-16-22||Cowboys v. Eagles -6||Top||17-26||Win||100||29 h 20 m||Show|
Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*)
Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played.
NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game.
Give me the Eagles minus the points.
|10-09-22||Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens||Top||17-19||Win||100||27 h 18 m||Show|
Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*)
Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again.
After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests.
Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|10-02-22||Patriots +10.5 v. Packers||Top||24-27||Win||100||25 h 58 m||Show|
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*)
I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat.
Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game.
NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests.
Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|09-29-22||Dolphins v. Bengals -4||Top||15-27||Win||100||27 h 55 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Bengals 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Bengals -4.0 (10*)
Miami is coming off a physically grueling 21-19 home upset win over Buffalo. That game was played in extremely hot and humid conditions. Now they have a task of facing the AFC defending champion Cincinnati Bengals on the road and with just 3 days of rest. Stop and think for a second, we have a 3-0 Dolphins team that’s better than a field goal underdog, and they’re facing an opponent who’s 1-2. My educated guess is public betting will side with the underdog for just that reason alone. It’s very seldom that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. Like I’ve said on numerous occasions and it’s worth repeating. Think like an oddsmaker and you will be much better for it.
By the way, since the start of last season, Cincinnati has gone 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS when facing teams with a winning record. This will be their first game of the season versus a team with a winning record. The Bengals are coming off a much-needed 27-12 road win over the Jets while easily covering as a 6.5-point favorite.
Any NFL non-division home favorite of 3.0 or more (Bengals) with a win percentage of .900 or less that’s playing after Game 3 of the season, versus an opponent (Dolphins) coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 19-2 ATS (90.5%) since 1985. Give me the Bengals minus the points for my NFL Thursday Game of the Month.
|09-25-22||49ers v. Broncos +2||Top||10-11||Win||100||27 h 45 m||Show|
San Francisco @ Denver 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Denver +2.0 (10*)
Denver has an extremely successful win rate when playing at home during the first 3 games of the season while going 38-9 SU (80.9%). Denver is coming off a 16-9 home win over Houston last Sunday but failed to cover as a sizable 10-5-point favorite. The 49ers are coming off an easy 27-7 home win over Seattle last week.
NFL home teams that are coming off a SU win in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 5, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a division win, resulted in those home teams going 26-3 SU (89.7%) since 1990. If their road opponent’s division win came by 9 points or more, that identical NFL SU betting angle improves to 14-0 SU since 1990. The straight up betting angle takes on added value because it backs the home underdog Denver Broncos in this matchup. Give me the Denver Broncos plus the small number for a 10* Top Play.
|09-18-22||Bears v. Packers -10||Top||10-27||Win||100||34 h 14 m||Show|
Chicago @ Green Bay 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Green Bay -10.0 910*)
Chicago is coming a 19-10 home win in their season opener last Sunday. However, we must avoid overreacting to that result especially after Green Bay’s double-digit defeat in their opening game. After all, Chicago is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Green Bay and they were outscored by an average of 13.4 points per game.
Green Bay is coming off a 23-7 loss at Minnesota in a game they were thoroughly dominated. Before we stick a fork in the Packers after just 1 game, we must keep in mind how resilient this team has been following a regular season loss. Green Bay is 11-0 SU&ATS in their last 11 regular season games following a loss and won by an average of 13.4 points per contest.
Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or more (Packers) that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, and they’re facing a team (Bears) coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorite going 39-12 ATS (76.4%) since 1991. Give me the Packers minus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|09-11-22||Giants +5.5 v. Titans||Top||21-20||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
NY Giants @ Tennessee 4:25 PM ET
Play On: NY Giants +5.5 (10*)
Tennessee has won 11 or more games in each of their previous 3 season. As a matter of fact, they were the AFC #1 seed last year entering the playoffs after recording a 12-5 regular season record. Nonetheless, their regular season win total over or under has dropped to 8.5. That speaks volumes to me regarding how the oddsmakers project the Titans to be a mediocre team at best.
The Giants begin the Brian Daboll head coaching era on the road and as an underdog at Tennessee. Daboll inherits a team that went a poor 4-13 a season ago. As a matter of fact, since 2018, the Giants have gone a combined 19-46 and never won more than 6 games in a season. However, New York has gone an extremely profitable 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as an away underdog of 6.5 or less during that same time span.
Any NFL Week 1 away underdog of 6.5 or less (Giants) who won 6 games or fewer in the previous season, resulted in those away underdogs going 45-13 (77.6%) since 2000. Give me the NY Giants plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|02-13-22||Rams -4 v. Bengals||Top||23-20||Loss||-110||98 h 28 m||Show|
LA Rams vs. Cincinnati 6:30 PM ET
Play On: LA Rams -4.0 (10*)
Cincinnati allowed 55 sacks of their quarterbacks during regular season action. Only Baltimore and Chicago were worse in that statistical category. Conversely, the Rams defense amassed 50 sacks during regular season which was 3rd best among all NFL teams. The Bengals have allowed 12 more sacks in the postseason, and it includes 9 during their upset win at Tennessee.
Cincinnati has rushed for less than 100 yards in all 3 postseason games. On the other hand, Los Angeles has limited their 3 postseason opponents to 61 yards or fewer rushing and permitted a mere 3.1 yards per carry.
The Rams are coming off a win over bitter division rival San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the Rams are 15-4 SU&ATS immediately following a division game and includes 7-1 SU&ATS if they played at home. The Rams enter the Super Bowl having won 8 of its last 9 games. Their only loss during that stretch came by 3 to San Francisco in a game they squandered a 17-point lead.
The Los Angeles running game is much better than their season statistics indicate. They were without star running back Cam Ackers until their regular season finale. Their passing game has been dynamic this season and ranked #5 during NFL regular season action while amassing 273.1 yards per game. They’ll be facing a Cincinnati defense which was 26th against the pass in allowing 248.1 yards per contest.
This is a bad matchup for Cincinnati on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati won’t be able to sustain a consistent running game against a stout Rams defense. Furthermore, the Bengals offensive line will struggle mightily in protecting Joe Burrow. That’s not a winning formula by any stretch of the imagination. Give me the LA Rams minus the points.
|01-30-22||49ers v. Rams UNDER 46||Top||17-20||Win||100||51 h 56 m||Show|
San Francisco @ LA Rams 6:40 PM ET
Play On: Under 46.0 (10*)
The Rams are coming off a thrilling 30-27 win at Tampa Bay and that game went over the total of 48.0. Los Angeles has played 6-0 to the under (40.8 PPG) in their last 6 following a game in which they went over. As a matter of fact, the Rams haven’t gone over in consecutive games since 10/3/2021. Since the start of the 2019-202 season, the Rams have played 16-6 (72.7%) to the under as a home favorite.
San Francisco has played 6-1 to the under in their last 7 and with a combined average of 39.1 points scored per game. The 49ers run defense has been outstanding in recent games. They’ve allowed 90 yards rushing or less in their previous 7 and 10 of its last 11 games.
San Francisco entered the season as the NFC #6 seed. Since the 2013 postseason, NFL #6 seeds have played 26-6 (81.2%) to the under. The average total in those 32 contests was 46.1 and there was a combined average of 40.1 points scored per game. Bet this game to go over the total for a Top Play wager. Furthermore, throughout their previous 6 games, the 49ers stop unit has allowed 15.2 points per contests and 307 yards or fewer on each occasion. Bet this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.
|01-23-22||Bills +2.5 v. Chiefs||Top||36-42||Loss||-110||49 h 10 m||Show|
Buffalo @ Kansas City 6:30 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo +2.5 (10*)
So, the Kansas City Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, the higher seed in this matchup, but they’re just a 1.5-point home favorite. The oddsmakers and early sharp money are huge indicators as to who the right side in this contest. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot Chiefs at this small of a number. Granted Kansas City has been exceptional in the 2nd half of the regular season and into the playoffs. However, Buffalo is currently on a 5-game win streak and held those opponents to 15.4 points and 237.2 yards per contest. By the way, the Chiefs have accumulated 378 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 5 games. Nonetheless, Kansas City is just 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS at home immediately following 4 straight games in which they had 375 yards or more of total offense.
The Bills outgained New England by a massive margin of 177 yards during their 47-17 home blowout win last Saturday. Since the start of the 2019-202 season, Buffalo is 8-0 SU on the road following a game in which they outgained their opponent by 100 yards or more and had a decisive average victory margin of 18.4 points per contest. The Bills are one of just a few NFL teams that can match Kansas City’s offensive explosiveness. Bet Buffalo for a Top Play wager.
|01-22-22||Bengals +3.5 v. Titans||Top||19-16||Win||100||20 h 32 m||Show|
Cincinnati @ Tennessee 4:30 PM ET
Play On: Cincinnati +3.5 (10*)
Tennessee star running back Derrick Henry returns from injury after missing 9 games. However, it’s unlikely he will be given a heavy workload after that long hiatus. The Titans went only 4-3 SU in their last 7 games and included a home loss to lowly Houston. The Titans have allowed 280 yards or more passing 8 times this season. This has been an area of concern for 2 years now, and against a talented young quarterback (Joe Burrow) and group of receivers that Cincinnati possesses, there’s a good chance they’ll be further exposed. Cincinnati has gone 5-2 SU this season versus teams that made the playoffs, and their lone 2 losses came in overtime against Green Bay and San Francisco. Give me Cincinnati plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-17-22||Cardinals +4 v. Rams||Top||11-34||Loss||-115||8 h 15 m||Show|
Cardinals @ Rams 8:15 PM ET
Play On: Cardinals +4.0 (10*)
The Cardinals finished the regular season by losing 4 of its last 5 games. However, Arizona was a terrific 8-1 SU&ATS on the road this season and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog. It’s not like they feasted on a bunch of creampuffs. The Cardinals defeated 4 teams that qualified for the playoffs on the road in Dallas, LA Rams, Tennessee, and San Francisco. Conversely, the Rams went just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season. Furthermore, Los Angeles was a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home versus teams that finished regular season action with a winning record. The road teams won and covered both games between these division rivals this season. Bet Arizona plus the points.
|01-16-22||49ers +3 v. Cowboys||Top||23-17||Win||100||52 h 32 m||Show|
San Francisco @ Dallas 4:30 PM ET
Play On: San Francisco +3.0 (10*)
Dallas (13-5) is the NFC East champion and finished the regular season going 5-1 SU&ATS in their final 6 regular season contests. Yet, they opened and remain just a 3.0-point favorite versus an opponent that needed to overcome a 17-3 halftime deficit in their final regular season game just to qualify for the postseason. Since 2019, Dallas has gone 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0.
The 49ers have been chasing the Rams and Cardinals all season when it comes to the NFC West standing and it became clear their only path to the postseason was a wildcard berth. So, they’ve been in win or go home mode over the final few weeks of regular season action. I look for that to pay dividends in this contest. Furthermore, the 49ers have been better on the road than at home this season. San Francisco is 7-2 SU in away games. Since the 2019-2020 season began, the 49ers are 4-1 SU&ATS in away games when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. Bet the 49ers plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-15-22||Patriots v. Bills -4.5||Top||17-47||Win||100||24 h 29 m||Show|
New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo -4.5 (10*)
Buffalo has scored 27 points or more in each of their last 5 games. Since Sean McDermott has taken over as head coach in Buffalo, the Bills are an unbeaten 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS at home after scoring 25 points or more in each of their previous 2 games. Since 2009, Wildcard Round teams that win straight up have gone 47-8 ATS (85.4%). Do you see where I am going with this? I hope so.
Since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in New England, his Patriots team have gone 36-8 versus Buffalo. However, since the start of last season which coincides with the departure of Tom Brady, New England is 1-3 SU&ATS versus Buffalo. Furthermore, heading into Week 15 of this season, New England held a comfortable 2.0 game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East standings. Then they lost 3 of their last 4 while Buffalo put together a 4-game win streak. One of those defeats was a 33-21 home setback to Buffalo in a game they were outgained 448-288. They will be playing against a Buffalo defense that’s allowed 15 points or fewer and 275 yards or less in each of their last 4 at home. Many people will jump all over a Bill Belichick coached New England team as a playoff underdog. I’m not one of them. Give me Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|01-09-22||Chargers v. Raiders +3||Top||32-35||Win||100||31 h 5 m||Show|
Chargers @ Raiders 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Raiders +3.0 (10*)
Whoever wins this game will be in the postseason parade and the loser won’t be a participant. The Chargers are coming off a 34-13 home win over Denver. Nevertheless, the Chargers are 1-4 SU&ATS in their last 5 following a win. Additionally, they’re 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games when they’re +3.0 to -3.0 and are coming off a win and were outscored by 12.7 points per contest. The Chargers have scored 28 points or more in each of their last 5 games. However, throughout their previous 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 29.3 points and 417.3 yards per game. Moreover, since 2019, the Chargers are 0-6 SU on the road following a game in which they scored 30 points or more and lost by an average of 10.0 points per game.
The Raiders are coming off a huge win at Indianapolis last Sunday which extended their unbeaten streak to 3 games. What’s eye catching to me is they won those 3 games despite being having a combined turnover margin of -7. What’s been their main catalyst is a defense that allowed 15.7 points and 218.7 yards per game during this current win streak. Las Vegas will also be out to revenge a 28-14 road loss to the Chargers earlier this season. I look for the Raiders to come up with a huge effort on Sunday night and give their newly ordained city of Las Vegas a taste of playoff football for a first time. Bet the Raiders plus the points.
|01-02-22||Broncos v. Chargers -7.5||Top||13-34||Win||100||23 h 20 m||Show|
Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET
Play On: Chargers -7.5 (10*)
These teams met just 5 weeks in Denver and the Broncos walked away with an easy 28-10 win. Yet, the oddsmakers weren’t deterred by that result based in this current point-spread. Additionally, Denver is coming off a pir of deflating losses 15-10 versus Cleveland and 17-13 to Las Vegas. That really put a dent into their postseason hopes and their overall confidence level.
Los Angeles is also coming off losses to Houston 41-29 as a 13.0-point road favorite and in overtime to Kansas City. As a result, the Chargers are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in with an 8-7 record. The Chargers will be facing a Denver team which has struggled to score at times this season. As a matter of fact, Denver has scored 13 points or fewer in 6 of their last 12 games. That hasn’t been the Chargers problem of late. During their last 4 outings, Los Angeles has averaged 33.8 points scored and 407.8 yards gained per game.
NFL betting history show that teams like the Chargers in this exact situation have passed the test with flying colors. Any division favorite of 4.5 or greater that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a non-division straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 16-0 ATS since 1985. Furthermore, they won those contests by an enormous 20.3 points per game and their average line was -7.2. Bet the Chargers minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-26-21||Broncos -103 v. Raiders||Top||13-17||Loss||-103||24 h 41 m||Show|
Denver @ Las Vegas 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Denver (-103) (10*)
The loser of this contest for all intents and purposes will be eliminated from postseason contention. Las Vegas is coming off a 16-14 last second win at Cleveland but failed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite versus a COVID ridden Browns team. Throughout the previous 3 season, the Raiders are 0-9 straight up at home following an ATS loss and were outscored by 12.3 points per contest. During that identical time span, the Raiders are 0-6 SU at home in December. Lastly, Las Vegas is also 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 home games this season and were outscored by 16.0 points per contest.
Denver is coming off a tough 15-10 home loss to Cincinnati. Nevertheless, the Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 16.7 points per game. Denver has endured their fair share of offensive struggles this season. Nonetheless, they’re 3-1 SU&ATS this season following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. The Broncos will also be out to revenge an earlier season 34-24 home loss to Denver. I’m of the strong opinion that they’re in a prime spot to get that done on Sunday. Bet Denver for a Top Play wager.
|12-19-21||Packers v. Ravens +7||Top||31-30||Win||100||24 h 45 m||Show|
Green Bay @ Baltimore 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Baltimore +7.0
I like the Ravens with or without Lamar Jackson. I assume at +7.0 it will be Tyler Huntley at quarterback. If Lamar gets the green light and get medical clearance on his injured ankle, then we aren’t going to be getting 7.0 points it will be more like 3.5 or 4.0 and that’s still fine. Tyler Huntley has accounted himself well when called upon this season. He was the starter in place of the injured Jackson at Chicago when the Ravens walked away with a 16-13 win. Last week, he just came up short of rallying Baltimore from a 24-6 halftime deficit at Cleveland, but the Ravens fell 24-22. Baltimore has gone 4-0 in non-division home games this season which includes wins Kansas City (10-3), LA Chargers (8-5), Indianapolis (7-6), and the best 6-7 team in years the Minnesota Vikings. Baltimore has gone 8-0 SU&ATS during the last 4 weeks of regular season action over the last 2 years and won by a decisive margin of 17.8 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, Baltimore is a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog and won by an average of 12.0 points per game.
All 3 losses by Green Bay this season were sustained away from Lambeau Field. They also escaped with narrow road wins by 3 in overtime versus Cincinnati, by 3 over Arizona, and 2 against San Francisco. It’s inevitable that Green Bay will win the NFC North and that may transpire as soon as the Vikings and Bears Monday night game goes final. I just firmly believe that a Jim Harbaugh coached Ravens team will be difficult for Green Bay to pull away from regardless of the adversity they may be facing. Bet Baltimore plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-18-21||Patriots v. Colts -130||Top||17-27||Win||100||33 h 48 m||Show|
New England @ Indianapolis 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Indianapolis -130 (10*)
New England has gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 games, they’re coming off a bye week, and are 2 games better than Indianapolis in the AFC standings. Yet they find themselves as an underdog in this matchup. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the Patriots and I’m not falling for the bait.
If the season were to end today, New England would make the playoffs as a wild card team. However, with a loss on Saturday night they’ll assuredly be on the outside looking in. Conversely, New England has a 2.0 game lead over 2nd place Buffalo in the AFC East standings, and they host Buffalo a week from this upcoming Sunday. The point being that desperation and urgency squarely favors the home team in this matchup. Furthermore, New England isn’t the only team that enters this contest red-hot. The Colts have won 5 of their last 6 with their lone loss coming against defending world champion Tampa Bay. Bet Indianapolis on the money line for a Top Play wager.
|12-12-21||Raiders v. Chiefs -9.5||Top||9-48||Win||100||23 h 27 m||Show|
Raiders @ Chiefs 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Chiefs -9.5 (10*)
After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders have gone on to lose 4 of its last 5 games. Las Vegas scored 16 points or fewer in all 4 of those defeats.
Kansas City enters this week on a 5-game win streak in addition to covering each of its last 3. It’s the Chiefs defense and not their offense that has been the catalyst throughout those 5 Kansas City wins. Furthermore, and since 2019, the Chiefs are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in their previous 2 contests while winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. Lastly, Kansas City walloped the Raiders during their earlier season meeting in Las Vegas by a final score of 41-14. The Chiefs had a huge total offense yards edge of 516-299. Bet the Chiefs minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|12-06-21||Patriots v. Bills -2.5||Top||14-10||Loss||-122||10 h 34 m||Show|
New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (-122) (10*)
New England has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games and enters this contest the hottest team in the NFL. Additionally, the Patriots have gone 5-0 on the road this season. Yet, here they are as a road underdog versus a Bills team that’s just 3-3 in their last 6 games. Like I said on many occasions, it’s rarely that east when it comes to sports betting and tonight’s game will be a prime example of such. It also must be noted, 4 of the 5 road wins by New England have come over teams that currently have a losing record in the Jets (3-9), Texans (2-10), Panthers (5-7), and Falcons (5-7). The lone exception was their win at the Chargers (7-5). New England is coming off a 36-13 home win over Tennessee last Sunday. However, that final score is a bit deceiving since they only were able to
Buffalo is coming off a 31-6 blowout win at New Orleans in a game they held the Saints to a mere 146 passing yards. Since 2019, Buffalo is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards and includes 4-0 SU&ATS (+16.2 PPG) at home. Furthermore, since 2019, Buffalo is 5-0 SU at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer and they won by an average of 13.8 points per contest.
Kudos to the New England Patriots and future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick for the masterful job he’s done so far this season. Nonetheless, Buffalo is the better team in this matchup and they’ll make a huge statement tonight to fulfill that statement. Bet Buffalo minus the small number for a Top Play wager.
|12-05-21||Broncos v. Chiefs -9.5||Top||9-22||Win||100||30 h 1 m||Show|
Denver @ Kansas City 8:20 ET
Play On: Kansas City -9.5 (10*)
The public has jumped all over Denver to cover this contest as of this writing. Nonetheless, I’m here to tell you they’re dead wrong. Yes, I know the Chiefs have been a terrible play on as a home favorite this season and last. I also know Denver is coming off an impressive 28-13 home win over the Chargers and recently blew out Dallas in Arlington. It doesn’t matter, because I don’t see this as a favorable betting situation for the sizable road underdog.
The Chiefs seemed to sleepwalk through the first half of the season and frankly looked uninspired. However, Kansas City has recently caught fire and enter this week on a 4-game win streak. The most encouraging part of that successful run was the play of their defensive unit. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 11.7 points and 294.0 yards per game while also forcing 8 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve owned the Broncos in recent seasons while going 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS against them. Lastly, Kansas City is just 1.0 game ahead of Denver in the standings, yet they are more than a touchdown favorite. It sure feels like the sportsbooks are baiting to take the road underdog. Thanks, but no thanks. Bet on Kansas City minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|11-25-21||Bills -5.5 v. Saints||Top||31-6||Win||100||34 h 1 m||Show|
Buffalo @ New Orleans 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*)
Buffalo will look to rebound from a humiliating and humbling 41-15 home blowout loss to the Colts. However, the Bills have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and win by a decisive margin of 26.0 points per game. So before you start digging a grave for the Bills you should definitely reconsider. Since 2019, Buffalo has gone 15-6 SU and 14-6-1 ATS during regular season away games under current head coach Sean McDermott. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite of 7.0 or less and after Game 6 of the season with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per game.
New Orleans has been a profitable home underdog under head coach Sean Payton. But most of those occurrences happened with future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees under center and not this year’s backup Trevor Simien. The Saints may also be without star running back Alvin Kamara who is recovering from a knee injury. Bet Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|11-21-21||Bengals v. Raiders +1||Top||32-13||Loss||-103||23 h 54 m||Show|
Cincinnati @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET
Play On: Las Vegas +1.0 (10*)
Las Vegas is coming off a disheartening 41-13 home underdog loss to Kansas City. That loss dropped their season record to 5-4. They will be facing a Cincinnati team that’s coming off 2 straight losses in which they allowed 37.5 points and 436.0 yards per game. I looked for the Raiders to bounce back in a big way off such a disappointing effort displayed last Sunday.
Since 1984, any home team with a point-spread of -2.5 to +5.0 that’s coming off a home underdog ATS loss, and they have a winning record, and they’re facing a non-division opponent, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average home team point-spread was +1.2 and they won by 9.7 points per game. Bet Las Vegas for my NFL Game of the Month.
|11-14-21||Eagles v. Broncos -128||Top||30-13||Loss||-128||25 h 25 m||Show|
Philadelphia @ Denver 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Denver -128 (10*)
Philadelphia is coming off a 29-24 home loss to the Chargers. That defeat dropped their season record to 3-6. However, the Eagles are 0-5 against teams that currently have a winning record and lost by 10.4 points per game.
Denver is coming off a 30-16 upset win at Dallas and did so as a 10.5-point underdog. The final score did the Broncos no justice as they led 30-0 in the 4th quarter of that contest. That victory improved the Broncos season record to 5-4. The Denver defense has flown under the radar. They’re allowing just 17.0 points and 321.8 yards per game.
Any NFL money line favorite (Denver) that’s coming off a road win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home game in which each team scored 24 points or more, resulted in those money line favorites going 104-24 (81.3%) since 1980. Bet Denver for a Top Play money line wager.
|11-07-21||Chargers v. Eagles +1.5||Top||27-24||Loss||-110||27 h 31 m||Show|
Chargers @ Eagles 4:05 PM ET
Play On: Eagles +1.5 (10*)
You may be surprised to know that the Chargers are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. They rank #32 in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6) and #32 at rush yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Furthermore, over their last 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 186.0 yards rushing per game and that alone was a major contributing factor to them entering this week on a 2-game losing streak.
Philadelphia should be able to the run the ball with a huge amount of success, not only because their opponent is inept stopping it, but because they’ve had some degree of success in doing so up until now. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 blowout win over Detroit last week and amassed 236 rushing years. The Eagles enter this week #7 in offensive rushing yards per game (131.7) and #4 in yards per rushing attempts (5.0).
Any NFL home team (Eagles) with a win percentage of .333 or better, coming off a road win by 23 points or more, versus an opponent (Chargers) coming off a home game where both teams scored 24 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 33-2 SU (94.2%) since 1983. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering the current point-spread. Bet the Eagles for a Top Play wager.
|10-31-21||Cowboys v. Vikings -3||Top||20-16||Loss||-101||31 h 18 m||Show|
Dallas @ Minnesota 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (10*)
As per usual, Dallas is certain to attract a sizable amount of support from a betting perspective in this contest. They enter this stand alone nationally televised primetime game on a 5-0 SU&ATS streak while outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 3.0-point underdog versus a 3-3 Minnesota team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog and I’m not falling for the trap. Additionally, since 2019, Dallas is 0-6 SU&ATS coming off a win and when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0 and lost by an average of 11.8 points per game. This is still a porous Dallas defense in my opinion. They’re allowing 24.3 points and 381.2 yards per game. Those defensive numbers could be even worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 14 turnovers in their first 6 games. They’ll be facing a Minnesota team that have averaged less than 1 turnover committed per game.
Minnesota is one of just a few teams that can come close to matching the Cowboys offensive explosiveness. The Vikings are 5th in the NFL when it comes to total offense at 414.2 yards gained per game. The Vikings 3 losses have come against Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 16-5. Furthermore, those 3 defeats came by a combined 11 points. The Vikings are much better than their 3-3 record indicates, and this current point-spread exemplifies that. Moreover, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as the Vikings head coach, Minnesota has gone an impressive 17-7 SU and 19-4 ATS at home versus non-division opponents with a win percentage of .375 or better. Bet Minnesota minus the points for a Top Play wager.
|10-24-21||Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46||Top||41-17||Loss||-110||23 h 23 m||Show|
Cincinnati @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Under 46.0 (10*)
Cincinnati has seen each of its last 5 games go under the total and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has now played 10-2 to the under in Games 1 through 8 of their season and there was a combined 41.6 points scored per contest. Cincinnati has averaged only 9.0 points scored per contests in their last 4 meetings versus Baltimore, and 3 of those stayed under the total. The Bengals defense has played well this season while allowing 18.5 points and 331.5 yards per game. Cincinnati has played 3-0 to the under in road contests this season and held those opponents to just 13.7 points scored per game.
Baltimore is coming off an impressive 34-6 home win over the Chargers. It was by far the best performance by the Ravens defense to date when considering the opponent. They held the explosive Chargers offense to just 208 yards. Since 2019, Baltimore has played 5-1 to the under at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer. Bet on this game to go under the total for a Top Play wager.
|10-17-21||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||6-34||Win||100||27 h 58 m||Show|
Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Ravens -2.5 (10*)
Sometimes it’s just best to keep it simple. The Ravens have been of the best running teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. This year is no different as they’re averaging a robust 148.8 yards rushing per game. That’s good for 4th best in the league. Conversely, the Chargers are dead last in rushing yards allowed per contest at 157.6. As a matter of fact, during last Sunday’s win over Cleveland, they allowed the Browns to rush for 230 yards and average a massive 6.6 yards per carry. Additionally, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been red hot in the air during the previous 2 games after going 59-80 (73.8%) and throwing for an enormous 741 yards.
The Chargers are coming off a 47-42 win over Cleveland last week. Since 1980, there has been just 28 regular season games in which a team won while allowing 40 points or greater, and only 12 of those teams were installed as an underdog in their next game. When pairing that up with Baltimore coming off a 31-25 win over Indianapolis in their previous game, and it presents a rare and unbeaten NFL betting situation which is displayed below.
Any NFL regular season underdog (Chargers) that’s coming off a win in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ravens) that scored 28 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those underdogs going 0-7 SU&ATS since 1980. Those 7 underdogs lost by a decisive margin of 20.1 points per game.
|10-10-21||Browns +2.5 v. Chargers||Top||42-47||Loss||-106||29 h 10 m||Show|
Browns @ Chargers 4:05 ET
Play On: Browns +2.5 (10*)
The Chargers are coming off 2 straight division wins over Las Vegas last Monday night and at Kansas City before that. Now they’ll be hosting a dangerous non-division opponent in Cleveland and playing on short rest.
After losing their season opener at Kansas City by a narrow 4-point margin, Cleveland has bounced back to win 3 in a row. I look for the Browns to attack the Chargers defense on the ground and be successful in doing so. After all, Cleveland is #1 in rushing offense at 177.0 yards per game. San Diego has permitted their opponents to run for 140 yards per contest which ranks 29th out of 32 NFL teams are 30th in yards permitted per carry at 5.3. Cleveland’s defense is pretty good as well. They’re #2 in total defense at 250.3 yards per game, #4 in scoring defense at 16.8 points allowed per contest and tied for 2nd in sacks with 14.
|10-03-21||Ravens v. Broncos +1||Top||23-7||Loss||-107||27 h 44 m||Show|
Ravens @ Broncos 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Denver +1.0 (10*)
Baltimore is 2-1 and their wins have come by a combined 3 points. As a matter of fact, they needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal last week from Justin Tucker with no time left to pull out a 19-17 win at Detroit. The Ravens continue to be a run heavy offense that excels in that area. However, they’ll be facing a Denver defense which allowing a mere 59 rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has missed two practices this week while nursing a back injury. He will be facing a Denver defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete a combined 52.4% of their passes thus far. As it is, Jackson has only completed 60.9% of his passes this season.
Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. They have held all 3 of their opponents to 13 points or fewer and all of its wins came by 10 point or greater. The Broncos offense has been perfectly balanced through 3 games while attempting 95 runs and an identical 95 passes while gaining a more than respectable 387.3 yards per game. Bet on the Broncos for a Top Play wager.
|09-26-21||Dolphins +4 v. Raiders||Top||28-31||Win||100||29 h 57 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET
Play On: Dolphins +4.0 (10*)
Derek Carr is off to an extremely hot start to the season. Nevertheless, he’ll be facing what is arguable the best cornerback tandem in the NFL which is Miami’s Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The Raiders are off to a 2-0 start. You may be surprised to know, this is a franchise that’s won 2 straight just 20 times since 2004, and they went a terrible 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in their following game. After winning their first 2 games as an underdog versus Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Raiders assume the role of a chalk for a first time this season. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss.
Miami is coming last Sunday’s embarrassing 35-0 home loss to Buffalo. However, it must be noted that since 2001, away teams with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5 who are coming off a home shutout loss have gone 8-0 ATS. Additionally, since the start of last season, Miami is 6-3 SU on the road and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less. As a matter of fact, 1 of those wins came last season at Las Vegas 26-25 as 2.5-point underdog. Yes the Dolphins will be without Tua at quarterback, but at this stage of his young career there’s not a huge drop off going to veteran Jacoby Brissett who has starting experience with both Indianapolis and New England. Bet on the Dolphins plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|09-19-21||Broncos v. Jaguars OVER 45||Top||23-13||Loss||-108||26 h 47 m||Show|
Broncos @ Jacksonville 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Over 45.0 (10*)
I thought prized rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence acquitted himself very well in his NFL debut last week despite the Jaguars 37-21 loss at Houston. Granted he did throw 3 interceptions. Nonetheless, he also threw 332 yards and 3 touchdowns as well. Conversely, the Jacksonville defense was terrible. They allowed Houston to accumulate 449 yards of total offense and made vagabond quarterback Tyrod Taylor resemble a future Hall of Fame inductee. Houston was also 12-21 (57.1%) on 3rd down conversions. The Jags also allowed the Texans to average a massive 8.8 yards per passing attempt which is brutal by NFL standards.
Teddy Bridgewater was solid in his Denver debut going 28-36 passing for 264 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Broncos also ran the ball extremely well while accounting for 165 yards and averaged a terrific 5.9 yards per rushing attempts. Bet on this game to over the total for a Top Play wager.
|09-12-21||Cardinals +3 v. Titans||Top||38-13||Win||100||27 h 55 m||Show|
Cardinals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Cardinals +3.0 (10*)
I have been eyeing this game down for a few weeks now. Arizona has not reached the postseason since the 2015-2016 campaign. Conversely, Tennessee has been a playoff participant in 3 of the last 4 years. As a matter of fact, the one time they failed to qualify during that span, they still went 9-7. Yet, Tennessee is just a 3.0 points home favorite in their season opener versus an Arizona team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015-2016 season NFL campaign. Moreover, if this game were being played in Arizona, the Cardinals would be the 3.0-point favorite. The last I checked, the sportsbooks and odds-makers aren’t that nice, nor will they ever be lauded for their generosity. If it smells like a rat, and looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Additionally, this is a Tennessee team that allowed 27 points and 398 yards per game a season ago despite being a playoff team.
On the other hand, Arizona averaged a more than respectable 25.6 points scored per game last year. Since 2019, the Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a non-division away underdog and won 3 of those contests straight up. Bet on the Cardinals plus the points for a Top Play wager.
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56||Top||9-31||Win||100||23 h 48 m||Show|
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay 6:30 PM ET
Play On: Under 56.0 (10*)
For starters 5 of the last 6 Super Bowls have played to the under when there was a total of 50.0 or greater. The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a 38-24 win over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Since 10/1/18, Kansas City has played 7-2 to the under when there was a total of 52.0 or greater and after they scored 35 points or more. That took place with almost the identical offensive players as this season, and if anything, this year’s edition on defense may is better than the previous 2.
The Chiefs will be facing a red-hot Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are #1 against the run and have been for 2 years running. Tampa Bay is also 6th in total yards allowed per game and 4th in sacks with 48. The Tampa Bay defensive front 7 are outstanding and underrated. Look for Tampa Bay to invite Kansas City to run the ball and force them to be patient in the passing game by keeping everything in front of them. It’s likely the only time that plan gets abandoned is inside the red zone. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-24-21||Bills +3.5 v. Chiefs||Top||24-38||Loss||-115||30 h 46 m||Show|
Buffalo @ Kansas City 6:40 PM ET
Play On: Buffalo +3.5 (10*)
We all know how good Kansas City has been in recent years let alone being the winner of last year’s Super Bowl. Yet, we have the #1 seed Chiefs as just a 3.0-point to 3.5-point home favorite in this contest. Remarkably enough, even after Patrick Mahomes was cleared to play there was very little line movement if any at all. I am not fearful whatsoever of the sportsbooks. Nonetheless I enormously respect their ability to set an accurate line and adjust to the money coming in. With all that in mind, the oddsmakers are telling you this is an even game and there was an adjustment of 3.0-points made to the Chiefs for homefield advantage.
By the way, since their 26-17 loss to Kansas City in Week 6, Buffalo has gone 11-1. Their lone defeat came on an Arizona Cardinal miracle last seconds “Hail Mary Pass” from Kyler Murray to Deandre Hopkins that resulted in that 32-30 setback. The Bills are also an extremely profitable 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Since the start of last season, Buffalo has gone a sparkling 12-5 on the road and that includes a money-making 7-2 ATS when installed as an underdog. By the way, since Week 12, Buffalo is the #1 red zone offense and Kansas City is the #26 red zone defense in the NFL. The Bills one of just a few teams in the NFL that can match the Chiefs offensive firepower. Bet on Buffalo plus the points for a 5* wager.
|01-17-21||Bucs v. Saints -3||Top||30-20||Loss||-103||30 h 2 m||Show|
Buccaneers @ Saints 6:40 PM ET
Play On: Saints -3.0 (10*)
Since 2017, Tampa Bay is a lousy 2-9-2 ATS as an away underdog of 6.0 or less. Moreover, the Bucs are a dismal 0-5 SU&ATS during its last 5 games versus New Orleans, and that includes 0-2 SU&ATS this season. Tampa was outscored in those 2 losses by 72-26.
New Orleans has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite and won by an average of 15.0 points per contest. Furthermore, since last season, New Orleans is a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less and won by 11.0 points per game.
If you are wondering how a playoff home favorite of 6.5 or less does against a division opponent that have beaten twice during regular season action. Well, you came to the right place. This situation has occurred only 6 times since 1983 with Sunday’s game being the 7th. So, it’s rare indeed. However, it’s important to note, the previous 6 have seen the home favorite of 6.5 or less going 6-0 SU&ATS, and with a decisive average victory margin of 16.0 points per game. Bet on the Saints minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-16-21||Rams v. Packers UNDER 46||Top||18-32||Loss||-109||17 h 22 m||Show|
Rams @ Packers 4:35 PM ET
Play On: Under 46.0 (10*)
The Rams know they can’t win a shootout against Green Bay. Jared Goff and the Rams offense is nowhere near as explosive in the passing game as they were 2 years ago when they advanced to the Super Bowl. However, one thing they continue do well is run the ball and that will be a key ingredient to their success on Saturday. The Rams defense is the best or at least one of the best units in the NFL. I look for Rams star cornerback Jalen Ramsey to more than hold his own while shadowing Green Bay #1 wide receiver Devante Adams who has torched opposing secondaries this season on a regular basis. Bet this game to go under the total for a 5* wager.
|01-10-21||Ravens v. Titans +3.5||Top||20-13||Loss||-117||44 h 42 m||Show|
Ravens @ Titans 1:05 PM ET
Play On: Titans +3.5 (10*)
I hear a lot of talking heads giving a lot of love to Baltimore. One team that surely isn’t buying it is the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee has beaten Baltimore in both of their meetings since last season and did so as an underdog on each occasion. During last year’s Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs the Titans knocked off Baltimore 28-12 as a 10.0-point road underdog. That was a Ravens team that entered the playoffs on a 12-game win streak, and they were favorite to win the Super Bowl. Then earlier this season, Tennessee turned the trick again by winning at Baltimore 30-24 as a 6.0-point underdog. There was a constant theme in those 2 victories. Tennessee and namely Derek Henry gashed the Baltimore defense on the ground for a combined 390 yards and 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. The Ravens stop unit will once again be hard pressed to stop Henry who rushed for over 2000 yards this season. They will also be challenged by an improved Titans passing game.
Since 1980, NFL Playoff home underdogs of 3.5 or less (Titans) that have a win percentage of .687 or better, and they are facing a non-division opponent with a win percentage of .764 or worse, resulted in those postseason home dogs going a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by a decisive 16.7 points per game. Bet on Tennessee plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-09-21||Rams v. Seahawks OVER 42||Top||30-20||Win||100||24 h 58 m||Show|
Rams @ Seahawks 4:40 PM ET
Play On: Over 42.0 (10*)
The Rams are coming off a 18-7 home win over Arizona in their final regular season game. Los Angeles has seen each of its last 4 games go under the total. The last too stayed under by decisive margins of 19.0 and 15.5 points.
Any NFL team (Rams) that is coming off each of their previous 2 games going under and both doing so by 15 points or more, resulted in those contests going 52-23 (69.3%) to the over since 2011. The average total in those 75 occurrences was 43.8 and there were a combined 50.1 points scored per game.
Seattle is coming off a 26-23 win over San Francisco in a game they failed to cover as a 7.5-point favorite. Since 2018, the Seahawks are 8-1 to the over following a win by 3 points or fewer, and that includes 3-0 to the over if that contest was played at home.
Any NFL team (Seahawks) that is coming off a straight up win in which they did not cover, versus an opponent (Rams) coming off a home win, resulted in those games going 44-11 (80%) to the over since 1980. The average combined score in those 55 contests was 54.8. This exact situation has arisen 8 times already this season, and all those games went over the total. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-03-21||Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44||Top||20-14||Win||100||30 h 16 m||Show|
Washington @ Philadelphia 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Under 44.0 (10*)
Washington has seen each of their previous 4 games go under the total and there was a combined 36.5 points scored per game. The Football Team won the first matchup versus the Eagles 27-17 at home. However, the points scored were a bit misleading since Washington was able to amass only 239 yards or total offense and Philadelphia just 265. The Eagles 3 turnovers in that contest heavily attributed to Washington’s scoring output.
Philadelphia is coming off a humiliating 37-14 loss at Dallas in a game in which they were a 4.5-point favorite. Since 2018, Philadelphia is 17-7 to the under at home and that includes 4-0 if they are coming off a game versus a division opponent.
Any NFL team playing in a division game and is coming off a straight up favorite loss by 15 points or more, resulted in those games going 15-0 to the under since 2015. Bet on this game to go under the total for my NFL 10* Total of the Year.
|12-27-20||Rams +1 v. Seahawks||Top||9-20||Loss||-110||27 h 9 m||Show|
Rams @ Seahawks 4:05 PM ET
Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)
The Seahawks have been beneficiaries of a soft non-division schedule. As a matter of fact, 9 of its 10 non-division games this season came against opponents that currently have a losing record. The lone exception was at Buffalo (11-3) on 11/8 and they lost that contest 44-34 in a game they closed as a 3.0-point favorite.
The Rams should be plenty motivated this week after coming off an embarrassing 27-17 home loss as a 14.0-point favorite to the then 0-13 Jets. That defeat dropped their season record to 9-5 and forced them to relinquish first place in the NFC West back to Seattle (10-4). On a positive note, since 2018, the Rams are 11-4 SU&ATS on the road and immediately following a home game. Additionally, the Rams are 4-0 straight up this season following a loss and won by an average of 9.7 points per game.
Quality NFL teams coming off embarrassing losses have historically responded with a strong performance more times than not in their next contest. The Rams did win the first meeting with Seattle this season 23-16. It’s simple for the Rams, win and their chances to win the AFC West remains alive. Or lose and possibly end up as low as a #7 in the NFC come playoff time. If that occurs it would be a first-round playoff game at either Green Bay or New Orleans. Desperation and urgency will be the difference in this contest on Sunday which surely favors the Rams. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-20-20||Chiefs v. Saints +3||Top||32-29||Push||0||29 h 27 m||Show|
Kansas City @ New Orleans 4:25 PM ET
Play On: New Orleans +3.0 (10*)
The Saints had their 8-game win streak snapped during last Sunday’s 24-21 loss at Philadelphia. They were not only defeated by an Eagles team that entered that contest with a dismal 3-8-1 record but was also starting a rookie quarterback who was making his first start of his career. In my estimation they were clearly looking ahead to this Sunday’s game against the defending world champion Chiefs (12-1) in what many have been tabbing as a Super Bowl preview. On a much more positive note, New Orleans has gone an outstanding 11-1 straight up in their last 12 following a loss in their previous game. New Orleans will also get an emotional lift as Drew Brees returns from injury to make the start. Nevertheless, I would have liked New Orleans in this spot with Brees or Taysom Hill under center.
|12-14-20||Ravens v. Browns UNDER 47||Top||47-42||Loss||-106||57 h 9 m||Show|
Ravens @ Browns 8:15 PM ET
Play On: Under 47.0 (10*)
These division rivals have seen the last 3 games played against one another in Cleveland all go under the total. These teams are run heavy offenses in what is now a pass happy league. The Browns have run the ball on 53.3% of their offensive plays this season while Baltimore does it at a 55.9% clip. It’s no coincidence that they rank #1 and #2 in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Conversely, Baltimore is dead last in the league in passing yards per game and Cleveland is #27 in that category. The weather forecast on Monday nigh is calling for winds of 17 to 20 MPH. That will certainly affect the teams passing games when going against the wind.
Cleveland enters this game with a stellar 9-3 (.750) record. The Browns will be out to revenge a 38-7 loss at Baltimore in their season opener. This sets up an extremely profitable Monday night totals betting angle which is displayed below.
Any NFL Monday night division home underdog with a total of 43.0 or greater that has a win percentage of .375 or better, resulted in those games going 22-1 (95.6%) to the under since 1980. If those home teams were an underdog of 4.0 or less this betting angle improves to a perfect 16-0 to the under since 1980. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-06-20||Colts v. Texans +3.5||Top||26-20||Loss||-115||27 h 56 m||Show|
Indianapolis @ Houston 1:00 PM ET
Houston is coming off a 41-25 win over Detroit. That win improved their season record to 4-7 (.363). Indianapolis is coming off a 45-26 loss to Tennessee. The combination of these results provides with a NFL betting angle which has won 85.1% of the time since 2011.
Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .363 or better that's coming off a win by 10 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or worse, and that opponent (Indy) is coming off a loss by 14 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 63-11 (85.1%) straight up since 2011.
|11-29-20||Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5||Top||27-24||Win||100||22 h 21 m||Show|
Chiefs @ Buccaneers 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Tampa Bay +3.5 (10*)
Tampa Bay has been a resilient team thus far. Despite their somewhat disappoing 6-4 record thus far, they have shown an ability to bounce back strong from a poor performance. The Bucs are coming off a Monday night 27-24 home loss to the Rams in a game they were only able to muster 251 yards of offense. However, Tampa Bay has gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by an enormous 21.7 points per game. Included in those 3 wins was a 38-10 rout of the 7-3 Green Bay Packers.
I may be in the minority and that’s okay when I say that Tampa Bay may matchup better against Kansas City than any other NFC team. They have an outstanding wide receiver corps, quality tight ends, and running back Ronald Jones is having a career year. Their defense is #1 against the run for 2 seasons running, #6 in total yards allowed, and #4 in sacks with 32. Their linebackers are extremely athletic and that always helps when facing a mobile quarterback, the caliber of Patrick Mahomes. If the Chiefs have a weakness it has been their ineffectiveness in consistently stopping opposing running games. They rank #27 in that specific category while allowing 133.5 yards per game. The combination of Jones and Leonard Fournette are more than capable of exposing that potential weakness. That will open up the play action passing game for Tom Brady and his star-studded wide receivers.
|11-22-20||Bengals v. Washington Football Team -1||Top||9-20||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
Cincinnati @ Washington 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Washington -1.0 (10*)
For starters, Cincinnati is an abysmal 0-16-1 straight up during their last 17 away games. Considering what this point-spread is, it would be difficult to ignore the Bengals most recent futility on the road.
Cincinnati will be facing a vastly underrated Washington defense which goes overlooked because of its current 2-7 record. However, the Washington stop unit ranks #7 in yards allowed per game (320.7), #5 in sacks with 28, and surrenders an NFL best 194.7 yards passing per game.
What has been even more encouraging for Washington backers is their team has shown some life offensively of late. During their last 3 outing, Washington has averaged 24 points scored and 421 yards gained per game. Veteran 36-year-old quarterback Alex Smith made his first start in a 27-24 loss at Detroit last Sunday. He was magnificent in going 38-55 for 390 yards passing. His story is well documented and serves as an additional inspiration for a team that is still in contention for a NFC East Division title. Bet on Washington for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-15-20||Seahawks v. Rams -2||Top||16-23||Win||100||29 h 35 m||Show|
Seahawks @ Rams 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Rams -2.0 (10*)
The Seahawks defense has been brutal this season and especially against opposing passing games. They rank dead last in total defense having allowed 455.8 yards per game and that includes an NFL worst 362.1 yards per contest. How bad is their defensive passing numbers? The next worst is Atlanta who surrenders 51.8 passing yards fewer per game than Seattle. The Seahawks have been bailed out by the heroics of their quarterback Russel Wilson. However, Wilson turned the ball over via interception or fumbles 7 times over the Seahawks last 3 games of which 2 of those contests resulted in losses.
The Rams are unequivocally the more balanced team in this matchup in terms of offense and defense. They are #2 in total defense and #6 in total offense heading into this game. Head coach Sean McVay is a brilliant offensive mind and will have a field day calling plays that will thoroughly exploit this inept Seattle defense. By the way, since 2018, the Rams are 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7.0 or less. Los Angles is coming off their bye week and benefit from that extra time to prepare and rest for this huge game against a team they trail by a mere 1.0 game in the NFC West standings. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-08-20||Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5||Top||34-31||Loss||-100||29 h 57 m||Show|
Dolphins @ Cardinals 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Cardinals -4.5 (10*)
Miami is coming off a 28-14 home win over the Rams. However, they were outgained in that game by a decisive margin of 471-145. The Dolphins scored 2 touchdowns in that win via a 78-yard fumble return and an 88-yard punt return. The Rams also committed 4 turnovers and 2 of which set the Miami offense up with a short field to work with. Tua Tagovailoa made his much-anticipated NFL debut last Sunday and was an uninspiring 12-23 for 90 yards passing. This will be his first career start on the road.
Arizona is coming off their bye week and is coming off a thrilling 37-34 overtime win over NFC West Division leading Seattle (6-1). Bet on the Cardinals minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-01-20||Steelers v. Ravens -3.5||Top||28-24||Loss||-125||27 h 58 m||Show|
Steelers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Baltimore -3.5 (10*)
Pittsburgh is coming off a very physical game last week at Tennessee in a game in which they nearly squandered 20-point 2nd half lead before holding on for a 27-24 win. That win improved their season record to an unblemished 6-0. I am sure a good portion of public action will back the undefeated Steelers as an underdog this week. However, I am not one of those individuals. Especially when considering they will be facing a 5-1 Ravens team which is coming off their buy week and one that may be even more physical than Tennessee. Furthermore, since 2002, Baltimore has gone a terrific 15-3 straight up and 14-4 ATS following a bye week. During that time, the Ravens have had only two head coaches in Brian Billick and John Harbaugh. There is something to be said for continuity when making sense of those extremely profitable results. Bet on the Ravens minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-25-20||Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5||Top||34-37||Win||100||33 h 38 m||Show|
Seahawks @ Cardinals 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Cardinals +3.5 (10*)
The Seahawks offense has been Super Bowl caliber thus far led by star quarterback Russell Wilson and an extremely talented group of wide receivers. Nevertheless, their defense has been another story and has shown no signs of improvement at this point. The Seattle stop unit is allowing 27.2 points and an atrocious 471.2 yards per game. They are especially inept against the pass which is indicated by them surrendering 280 yards per game in that specific category. Moreover, they allowed Minnesota (1-5) to rush for over 200 yards last week in a game they narrowly escaped with a 27-26 win as a home favorite of 6.5-points.
That porous Seattle defense will have their hands full on Sunday night against an Arizona offense that averages 27.7 points and 402.5 yards per game. You also may be surprised to know that the Cardinals defense has been stellar as well while allowing just 18.7 points per game which is 4th best in the NFL. The Cardinals are coming off an impressive 38-10 home win at Dallas. If they hope to be a serious contender in the NFC West race, then this is an early must win situation. A win moves them to within 1.0 game of Seattle, and a loss would put them in a substantial 3.0 game hole.
Any NFL team (Arizona) which is coming off a road win by 21 points or more and is facing an opponent (Seattle) coming off a home game in which both teams scored 24 points or greater, resulted in those teams going 41-11 (78.8%) straight up since 1983. This NFL straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the home underdog. Bet on Arizona plus the points for a 10* Top Play.
|10-18-20||Packers v. Bucs +1.5||Top||10-38||Win||100||29 h 1 m||Show|
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Tampa Bay +1.5 (10*)
The Tampa Bay defense has been stout against the run since Bruce Arians took over as their head coach. They were #1 in the NFL pertaining to that category last season and they led the league this year as well while yielding a scant 58 yards per game. The Packers Aaron Rodgers is going to get his yards in the air. However, Rodgers has been aided by the stellar performance of running back Aaron Jones who has averaged 93.5 yards rushing per game during the Packers 4-0 start. The production by Jones has made the Packers play action passing game extremely effective. Nevertheless, I like the Bucs defense ability to shut down the run and make Green Bay a one-dimensional offense on Sunday.
Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 this season. However, all 4 wins have come against teams who currently have a win percentage of less than .500 and sport a cumulative record of 4-15. Conversely, Tampa Bay is 3-2 and their first 5 opponents currently have a combined 14-10 record. Additionally, legendary Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady will have his full compliment of wide receivers available for a first time since Week 1. Bet on Tampa Bay for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-11-20||Dolphins v. 49ers -9||Top||43-17||Loss||-106||49 h 5 m||Show|
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET
Play On: 49ers -9.0 (10*)
The 49ers are coming off a disappointing 25-20 home loss to Philadelphia in a game in which they were a sizable 7.5-point favorite. They suffered that defeat despite outgaining the Eagles 417-290 but were plagued by committing 3 turnovers. San Francisco starting Jimmy Garoppolo returns is probable to return from injury after a 2-week absence due to injury. Garoppolo will be facing a Miami defense which has allowed 24.0 points and 410.0 yards per game. I am sure that Miami will receive their fair share of public action since San Francisco has gone 0-2 SU&ATS at home thus far. With that in mind, then why is San Francisco such a large favorite? The sportsbooks just are not so generous and they are begging you to take the underdog in this contest. I am not taking the bait. Bet on the 49ers minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-04-20||Bills -3 v. Raiders||Top||30-23||Win||100||30 h 28 m||Show|
Bills @ Raiders 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Bills -3.0 (10*)
Buffalo has started 3-0 and covered 2 of those contests. They were a favorite on each of those occasions and their only ATS loss came when Miami was able to back door them on a touchdown with 0:49 left in the game. The Buffalo defense has not played well during their previous 2 games. However, this is the same core group of players that was one of the best stop units in the NFL last year. I look for a much better performance from the defense last week and more of what we were used to seeing a season ago.
The Buffalo offense has been terrific through the first 3 weeks. Quarterback Josh Allen has been especially good and has taken a giant leap thus far in his 3rd season. Allen has thrown for over 1000 yards in 3 games in addition to tossing 10 touchdown passes and ran for 2 scores as well.
The Raiders defense has not exactly been stellar during their 2-1 start. They are allowing 30.0 points and 406.0 yards per game. Conversely the bills offense is averaging 31.0 points and 434. Yards per game. Bet on Buffalo minus the points as a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-27-20||Cowboys +5.5 v. Seahawks||Top||31-38||Loss||-110||30 h 34 m||Show|
Cowboys @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Cowboys +5.5 (10*)
Despite playing poorly last week Dallas overcame a 29-10 halftime deficit to miraculously beat Atlanta 40-39 and avoid an 0-2 start. I look for them to carry that momentum into their game at Seattle this week.
The Seattle defense has been getting bailed out by some off the chart numbers from their star quarterback Russell Wilson during its 2-0 start. Nonetheless, the fact still remains, their pass defense is horrible, and it was last season as well. During their first 2 games, Matt Ryan has passed for 450 yards and Cam Newton went for 397 in the air against them. They will be facing a good one in Dak Prescott on Sunday who threw for 450 yards last week against Atlanta. Bet on the Cowboys plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-20-20||Patriots v. Seahawks OVER 44.5||Top||30-35||Win||100||31 h 45 m||Show|
Patriots @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Over 44.5 (10*)
I said it before the season, and I will say it again, anytime you get an opportunity to catch a Seattle game that has a total of 49.5 or less you should give strong consideration to bet the over. Last week in their season opener against Atlanta the total closed at 49.5 and the Seahawks prevailed 38-25 which easily surpassed the number.
The Patriots are coming off a 21-11 win over Miami. However, now they are going to face on of the best quarterbacks in football with Russell Wilson as opposed to the Dolphins Ryan Fitzpatrick. You will not get many to disagree that Wilson is a huge step up in class compared to the former Harvard quarterback. Seattle is also vastly superior at the offensive skilled positions in comparison to Miami.
The Patriots defense is still a formidable group. Nevertheless, they lost some key personnel from that exceptional unit from last season. It did not show up against Miami, but it will against this Seattle offense. I would be shocked if the New England offense does not expose the biggest defensive weakness for Seattle and that is their secondary. Matt Ryan torched the Seattle defense for 450 passing yards last week and 3 receivers went over 100 yards for the day. The Seattle pass defense has been a major issue for them dating back to last season. There is no more “Legion of Boom”. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-13-20||Packers v. Vikings -1||Top||43-34||Loss||-128||37 h 19 m||Show|
Packers @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Vikings -1.0 (10*)
I am not impressed whatsoever with the 2020-2021 version of the Green Bay Packers. The oddsmakers must agree because after a 13-3 2019-2020 regular season their win total this year was set at 9.5. They lack quality depth at wide receiver. I also question their recent draft and the lack of moves to upgrade the roster during this past offseason.
For starters, since 2015, Minnesota has gone an extremely profitable 22-7 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5 or less, and that includes 13-1 ATS in the first 7 games of the season. Additionally, the Vikings are a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 home openers. Considering the small point-spread they are being asked to cover, it makes for an attractive betting value on the home favorite. Bet on the Vikings minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|09-10-20||Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54||Top||20-34||Push||0||28 h 55 m||Show|
Houston @ Kansas City 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Over 54.0 (10*)
These teams met twice last season and both games went over the total with a combined average of 68.5 points scored per contest.
This game will feature two of the most exciting quarterbacks the NFL has to offer in Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Watson threw for 3852 yards and 26 touchdowns last season. He added an additional 635 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2 postseason games. That includes 388 yards and 2 touchdowns passing in the AFC Divisional Round 51-31 loss at Kansas City. Watson also ran for 413 yards and 7 touchdowns in 15 regular season games. During 30 regular season starts over the past 2 regular season,
During the past 2 regular seasons, Patrick Mahomes has combined to throw for an astronomical 9128 yards and 76 touchdowns. During that identical time span, Mahomes also ran for 490 yards and 4 touchdowns. Although Mahomes is not the running threat that Watson is, he is still very mobile and has an uncanny ability to extend plays with that attribute.
The Chiefs have gone over in their last 5 home openers and there was a combined 57.6 points scored per contest.
The Texans defense was a huge liability a season ago and that was further exposed in their 2 postseason games against Buffalo and Kansas City. I see nothing to suggest there has been any offseason changes made that would indicate any significant improvement. Houston was 28 in total defense last season while allowing an enormous 388.3 yards per game. Kansas City was in the middle of the pack when it came to defensive statistics.
Since 2008, any NFL home favorite of 1.5 or great that is playing in their first 3 games of the season, and there is a total of 52.0 to 55.5, has gone 13-1 (92.9%) over the total. There was a combined average of 62.6 points scored per game. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|02-02-20||49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs||Top||20-31||Loss||-108||25 h 3 m||Show|
San Francisco vs. Kansas City 6:30 PM ET
Play On: San Francisco +1.5 (10*)
Despite their impressive journey to the Super Bowl, Kansas City has been a beneficiary of a pretty soft schedule. They finished their regular season slate with 6 games against teams who finished with a losing record. Furthermore, the Chiefs AFC playoff wins came against the #4 seed Houston Texans (11-7) and the #6 seed Tennessee Titans (11-7). Additionally, Kansas City had to overcome a 24-point deficit against Houston and a 10-point hole versus Tennessee.
One thing is for sure, nobody can say San Francisco reached the 2020 Super Bowl by way of an undemanding schedule. Counting the NFC Playoffs, San Francisco has played seven of their previous 8 games against teams who finished with a win percentage of better than .500. They went 6-2 in those contests and 1 of their losses came by 3 at Baltimore (14-3), and the other versus an Atlanta team which finished 4-0 SU&ATS during their last 4 games.
The 49ers success in running the football against Kansas City will go a long way in determining the outcome of
|01-19-20||Titans +8 v. Chiefs||Top||24-35||Loss||-135||25 h 7 m||Show|
Titans @ Chiefs 3:05 PM ET
Play On: Titans +8.0 (10*)
Tennessee will not be intimidated by playing in a hostile environment. As a matter of fact, they’ve gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 away games. I look for the runaway freight train called Derek Henry to continue his dominance on Sunday that he’s displayed over the past 8 games. During that stretch, Henry has rushed for over 1200 yards and 3 touchdowns. That includes a 186-yard rushing day in a 35-32 win over Kansas City on 11/10. The Chiefs defense has shown a marked improvement this year’s in comparison to the one fielded during recent seasons. However, I’m not convinced they’ll hold up in crunch time. I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict an outright upset although I wouldn’t be shocked if that would occur. Nevertheless, I love the Titans plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-12-20||Seahawks v. Packers OVER 45.5||Top||23-28||Win||100||28 h 13 m||Show|
Seahawks @ Packers 6:40 PM ET
Play On: Over 45.5 (10*)
Weather is always a concern when games are played at Green Bay in January. It certainly will be very cold with temperatures in the low 20’s. Nevertheless, there’s 0% chance of precipitation and light winds of 5-6 MPH in the latest forecast.
Both teams will have success running the ball in this contest. Subsequently, it will provide plenty of favorable opportunities via play action passing plays. Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson has seen 6 of his 9 playoff starts go over the total during the past 5 seasons. Green Bay signal caller Aaron Rodgers has witnessed 5 of his 7 playoff starts go over the total during the past 5 seasons. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-11-20||Vikings v. 49ers OVER 44||Top||10-27||Loss||-108||26 h 43 m||Show|
Minnesota @ San Francisco 4:35 PM ET
Play On: Over 44.0 (10*)
The weather forecast is calling for 10 MPH winds throughout the game. That’s nothing new for San Francisco weather. Besides, both teams have very strong running games that can more than overcompensate when going against the wind.
Minnesota has gone over the total in their last 5 away games this season when there’s been a total of 49.0 or less. Those 5 contests averaged a sizable 57.8 points scored per game. As a matter of fact, the Minnesota offense has been more effective on the road than at home this season which is evidenced by them averaging 26.4 points scored and 374.2 yards gained per away game. Minnesota is very good defensively. Nevertheless, it must be note, the Vikings faced 6 teams this season that finished with winning records, and they allowed them to rack up an average of 377.2 yards of total offense per game.
San Francisco finished the regular season by going over in their final 4 contests and there was a combined average of 64.3 points scored per game. The 49ers offense was explosive at home while averaging a robust 32.4 points scored per game. San Francisco’s defense was extremely dominant during their first 7 contests while allowing just a paltry 11.0 points per game. However, in their last 9 regular season games they allowed 25.9 points per contest and went over the total on 7 of those occasions. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* wager.
|01-05-20||Vikings +9 v. Saints||Top||26-20||Win||100||39 h 49 m||Show|
Vikings @ Saints 1:05 PM ET
Play On: Vikings +9.0 (10*)
Since the start of last season, New Orleans is 0-5 ATS as a home favorite after playing a division opponent in their previous game. For the record, they were at Carolina last Sunday. New Orleans did manage to win 4 of those 5 contests straight up. However, all 4 victories came by 6 points or fewer.
Minnesota enters the postseason with a 10-6 record. They will be facing a Saints team which is coming off a division win at Carolina which improved their season record to 13-3 (.812). The combination of this previously mentioned data sets up an NFL betting angle which is 15-0 ATS and is displayed below.
Any NFL road underdog of 10.0 or less that has a winning record and is playing after game 8 of their season, versus an opponent (Saints) with a win percentage of .750 or better and they’re coming off a division road win, resulted in those road underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 2014. They also won 8 of those 15 games straight up. Bet on the Vikings plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|01-04-20||Bills +3 v. Texans||Top||19-22||Push||0||27 h 46 m||Show|
Bills @ Texans 4:35 PM ET
Play On: Bills +3.0 (10*)
Houston has gone 0-5 ATS and 3-2 straight up in their last 5 games as a home favorite versus AFC teams. Their 3 straight up wins came by only a combined 7 points. The Texans defense is a huge concern heading into postseason action. During their last 5 games, Houston has allowed an average of 27.2 points and 434.6 yards per game. Granted, J.J. Watt returns after an 8-game absence while recovering from a torn pectoral issue, and that should give the defensive unit a huge emotional lift. However, I wonder just how effective Watt can be after such a long layoff.
Buffalo went 6-2 straight up and 6-0-2 ATS in away games during their recently completed regular season slate. If defense wins championships, then the Bills are primed to make a deep postseason run. Buffalo is #2 in scoring defense (16.2 PPG) and #3 in Total defense (298.2 YPG). This Buffalo defense has 10 starters from last year’s 6-10 team that allowed just 13 offensive points, surrendered only 216 total yards, and sacked Deshaun Watson 7 times during a 7-point loss in 2018 at Houston. Bet on Buffalo plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-29-19||49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 46.5||Top||26-21||Loss||-110||29 h 40 m||Show|
49ers @ Seahawks 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Under 46.5 (5*)
Seattle is coming off last Sunday’s shocking 27-13 loss to Arizona (5-9-1) in a game they were a sizable 8.0-point home favorite. Since 2017, Seattle has gone under the total in all 6 of its games when there’s a total of 50.0 or less and they’re coming off a home loss during their previous contests. Those 6 contests averaged a combined 37.0 points scored per game.
Any NFL home team (Seahawks) with a total of 52.0 or less that’s coming off a straight up favorite loss by 14 points or more in their previous outing, resulted in those home teams going 29-2 (93.5%) under the total since 2015. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 5* wager.
|12-22-19||Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 50.5||Top||27-13||Loss||-110||49 h 36 m||Show|
Cardinals @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Over 50.5 (10*)
Arizona has gone over the total in 4 of 5 games this season as a road underdog. Those 5 contests averaged a combined 49.3 points scored per game. The Cardinals defense has given up 393 yards or more in 6 of its previous 7 and they allowed 29.4 points per game while doing so. Arizona is coming off last Sunday’s 38-24 home win over Cleveland in a game they amassed 445 yards of total offense. Seattle has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 at home and there were a combined 61.2 points scored per game.
Both starting quarterbacks (Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray) have above average mobility which enables them to beat defenses with their arms and legs. Each defensive unit has been terrible against the pass this season. Arizona is dead last in that category at 290.4 yards per game allowed and Seattle is #29 while permitting 271.0 yards passing per contest. This game has all the earmarks of a high scoring and extremely entertaining affair. Bet on this game to go over the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-21-19||Rams v. 49ers UNDER 45||Top||31-34||Loss||-110||33 h 11 m||Show|
Rams @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET
Play On: Under 45.0 (10*)
San Francisco is coming off last Sunday’s 29-22 home upset loss to Atlanta. The Rams are coming off a humiliating 44-21 loss at Dallas in a game they closed as a 1.0-point favorite. The combination of those 2 results creates an NFL totals betting angle which is unbeaten since 2015 and is illustrated below.
Any NFL team (Rams) with a total of 46.5 or less that’s coming off an away favorite straight up loss by 10 points or greater, and they’re facing an opponent (49ers) who scored 28 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those contests going 24-0 under the total since 2015. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-15-19||Texans v. Titans -2.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-130||17 h 44 m||Show|
Houston @ Tennessee 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*)
I know that Houston has yet to lose back to back games this season. However, getting blown out at home by Denver last Sunday was inexcusable, and hardly bodes well for a team fighting to make the postseason. The Texans defense isn’t playoff caliber. Houston has gone a dismal 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 division away games when facing an opponent with a winning record.
Since Ryan Tannehill has taken over for Marcus Mariota at quarterback the Titans offense has an entirely different feel to it. More importantly, Tennessee has gone a red-hot 6-1 SU&ATS with Tannehill as their starter, and that includes 4-0 SU&ATS at home. Houston may have more pure talent on paper than Tennessee, but the Titans are the better team right now, and they’re peaking at the right time. Additionally, Tennessee has gone 3-0 SU&ATS during its last 3 home games against Houston. Bet on Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-08-19||Seahawks v. Rams +1||Top||12-28||Win||100||29 h 10 m||Show|
Seahawks @ Rams 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*)
Seattle is coming off a 37-30 home win over Minnesota. That victory improved the Seahawks record to 10-2 (.833). However, it must be noted, 9 of their 10 wins have come by 8 points or fewer. My point being, despite their stellar record it’s not like they’ve been dominant while doing so.
The Rams desperately need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’re coming off last Sunday’s impressive 34-7 win at Arizona that improved their record to 7-5 (.583). It was just one of a couple times this season they resembled the defending NFC champion. Los Angles is currently 1.0 game behind the Vikings (8-4) for the final NFL Wildcard spot. With Minnesota hosting Detroit as a double-digit favorite this week, the Rams can ill afford to lose and hope to have a realistic chance of making the postseason parade.
Any home team (Rams) that’s coming off a road win by 22 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .583 or better, versus an opponent coming off a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or greater, and they (Seahawks) own a win percentage of .833 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 30-0 straight up since 1986. Bet on the Rams for a 10* Top Play wager.
|12-01-19||Patriots v. Texans +3.5||Top||22-28||Win||100||29 h 53 m||Show|
Patriots @ Texans 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Texans +3.5 (10*)
The one quarterback that gave New England’s elite defense problems this season was Lamar Jackson. DeShaun Watson provides a similar skill set. He may not be as dynamic a runner as Lamar Jackson is, but he can still make plenty of plays with his legs whether it be taking off to run or keeping plays alive with elusive scrambling ability. It’s hard to poke holes at the 10-1 Patriots other to say that their offense is far from dynamic, and age seems to be creeping up on Tom Brady based on recent performances. Bet on the Texans plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-28-19||Saints v. Falcons UNDER 49||Top||26-18||Win||100||32 h 2 m||Show|
Saints @ Falcons 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Under 49.0 (10*)
After putting together a modest 2-game win streak, Atlanta followed it up with last Sunday’s disappointing 35-22 loss to Tampa Bay as a 3.0-point home favorite. Conversely, New Orleans is coming off a 34-31 home win over Carolina last Sunday, and that contest easily went over the total of 46.0. Since the start of last season, New Orleans has gone under in all 7 of its contests following a game in which they scored 43 points or fewer and went over the total. These teams have seen 4 of their last 5 meetings go under the total, and that includes an Atlanta 26-9 win at New Orleans earlier this season in a contest that went way under the total of 51.5.
Any home team (Falcons) with a total of 52.0 or less that’s coming off a straight up favorite loss by 13 points or more, and they possess a losing record, resulted in those games going 21-0 under the total since 2015. There was a combined average of just 30.3 points per game scored during those 21 contests. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-24-19||Cowboys +6 v. Patriots||Top||9-13||Win||100||26 h 12 m||Show|
Cowboys @ Patriots 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Cowboys +6.0 (10*)
The Patriots defense has been outstanding with an exception of their 37-20 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens offense racked up 372 yards of offense on that day which is 122.6 more than Patriots defense current season average. Dallas will present similar challenges for New England. Dak Prescott doesn’t have the running capabilities of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, but he’s still very mobile and has the uncanny ability to keep plays alive with more than adequate scrambling abilities. You can also make a strong argument that Prescott is surrounded by better skilled players than Jackson possesses. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Dallas win this game outright. Nonetheless, I won’t be greedy and will surely accept the generous amount of points being given. Bet on the Cowboys for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-21-19||Colts +4 v. Texans||Top||17-20||Win||100||55 h 29 m||Show|
Colts @ Texans 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Colts +4.0 (10*)
The Colts have gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 division games. This is also a Indianapolis team which has gone an outstanding 15-5 straight up during its previous 20 regular season games. They will be without their starting running back Marlon Mack who injured his hand in last week’s 33-13 win over Jacksonville. However, backup Jonathan Williams stepped in ran for 116 yards on just 13 carries. Which further proves that the Colts offensive line is an elite unit and has been since last season. They certainly will have an opportunity to expose a Texans run defense that allowed 263 yards rushing during last Sunday’s 41-7 blowout loss at Baltimore. Granted 86 of those rush yards came from the best running quarterback in the NFL named Lamar Jackson. Nevertheless, 3 Ravens running backs combined to run for 178 yards and 6.9 yards per rushing attempt.
The Colts defense has been outstanding over their previous 4 games. During that time, they’ve allowed their opponents to accumulate just 272.3 yards of total offense per game. Throughout that same 4-game span, Indianapolis allowed 16 points or fewer on 3 occasions, and that includes in each of its previous 2 outings. Contrarily, the Texans defense has allowed 25.7 points and 385.0 yards per game over their last 6 contests.
Any NFL team (Colts) which has allowed 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 contests and is facing an opponent which has allowed 35 points or greater in their previous game, resulted in those teams going a terrific 45-14 (76.3%) since 2010. This NFL straight up betting angle takes on added value since it backs the underdog in this contest. Bet on the Colts plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-18-19||Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53||Top||24-17||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
Chiefs vs. Chargers 8:15 PM ET
Play On: Under 53.0 (10*)
The Chargers defense has stepped up in their last 2 games against potent offensive attacks while limiting Green Bay to 184 yards and Oakland to 278. That’s a combined 175.7 yards below those 2 teams current season averages. Since Anthony Lynn took over a head coach of the Chargers in 2017, they’ve gone 15-5 (75%) under after game 8, and that includes 15-3 (83.3%) if the total was 53.0 or less. Los Angeles has also gone under in 7 of its last 9 this season. Additionally, the 2 games that went over during that sequence did so by a combined 1.5-points.
Since 2016, Kansas City has gone 5-1 under the total as a division favorite in games not played at home and when there was a total of 47.0 or greater. All those contests came under the watchful eye of current head coach Andy Reid.
Kansas City is coming off a 35-32 loss at Tennessee in their previous game. That defeat dropped their season record to a disappointing 5-4 (.555). Conversely, the Chargers are coming off a 26-24 loss at Oakland in a game they were a 1.0-point road favorite. The combination of these results and current season records qualifies this game for a extremely profitable NFL totals betting angle illustrated below.
Any NFL team (Chargers) coming off a road favorite straight up loss by 2 points or more that’s playing after Game 9 of its season, and they own a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent (Chiefs) with a win percentage of .642 who allowed 35 points or fewer in their previous game, resulted in those contests going 26-3 (89.7%) under since 1984. Bet on this game to go under the total for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-17-19||Patriots v. Eagles +4.5||Top||17-10||Loss||-110||26 h 4 m||Show|
Patriots @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Eagles +4.5 (10*)
Granted New England is 8-1, and they’re the reigning Super Bowl champions. However, they’ve beaten just 1 team that currently has a winning record and that’s Buffalo (6-3). Their other 7 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 15-40. The Patriots are coming off their first loss of the season after a 37-20 blowout defeat at Baltimore.
Philadelphia is coming off back to back wins over Buffalo 31-13 and Chicago 23-14. Their defense played exceptionally well in those wins while allowing only a combined 417 yards. Since 2016, the Eagles are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-division home games following wins in each of its previous 2 contests.
Any NFL team (Eagles) playing in a non-division game and is coming off 2 consecutive games in which they allowed 17 points or less, versus an opponent (Patriots) with a win percentage of .375 or better who allowed 35 points or more during its last contest, resulted in those teams going 16-1 (94.1%) straight up since 2010. Bet on the Eagles plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-10-19||Vikings v. Cowboys -3||Top||28-24||Loss||-110||35 h 1 m||Show|
Vikings @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Cowboys -3.0 (10*)
You may be surprised to know, Minnesota is 0-9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 away games when facing a team with a winning record. They’re coming off last Sunday’s 26-23 away favorite 26-23 upset loss at Kansas City. The Vikings will be facing a Cowboys team that won 2 straight to improve its season record to 5-3 (.625), and they’re coming off a 37-18 road win this past Monday night over the New York Giants.
Any non-division home favorite of 4.5 or less that’s coming off a division away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 2.0-points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .416 or better, versus an opponent (Vikings) coming off a SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 18.0-points or fewer, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 11 contests came by a decisive 18.5 points per game. Bet on the Cowboys minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|11-03-19||Patriots v. Ravens +3.5||Top||20-37||Win||100||33 h 43 m||Show|
Patriots @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Ravens +3.5 (10*)
New England has started the season 8-0 and are deserving of all the accolades that they’re receiving. However, they’ve only defeated 1 team (Buffalo 5-2) that currently has a winning record. Their other 7 wins have come against opponents that presently have a combined record of 9-35 (.205). Additionally, during that 16-10 win at Buffalo, the Patriots were outgained by 151 yards and scored only 9 offensive points. The difference was a blocked punt returned for a touchdown by New England, and 4 Buffalo turnovers. By the way, Baltimore is averaging just 1 turnover committed per contest, and have also not had an offensive turnover in 4 of its 7 games.
Since John Harbaugh has taken over as head coach of Baltimore in 2008, the Ravens have gone 7-0 straight up in regular season action following a bye week and when facing a team with a win percentage of .400 or better. They won those contests by a decisive margin of 13.4 points per game. Bet on the Ravens plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-27-19||Packers v. Chiefs +4.5||Top||31-24||Loss||-105||31 h 21 m||Show|
Packers @ Chiefs 8:20 PM ET
Play On: Chiefs +4.5 (10*)
The Chiefs are still claiming that Patrick Mahomes has a chance to play in this game. However, that seems unlikely to me considering he suffered a dislocated knee cap a little over a week ago. However, by chance that does occur, then we have a tremendous underdog betting value because this line will be moved considerably as a result. But I handicapped this game and decided on this pick based on veteran backup quarterback Matt Moore being under center. Moore will still be surrounded by plenty of offensively skilled players capable of stepping it up for him. Secondly, look for the Chiefs to make a concerted effort to run the ball against a Green Bay defense that’s given up 142.7 yards per game on the ground throughout their previous 6 contests.
Kansas City is coming off a Thursday night 30-6 blowout win at Denver. This will be the first time since 2014 that Kansas City will be a home underdog and that itself should provide plenty of motivation. Furthermore, since 2016, Kansas City is 8-0 ATS and 7-1 straight up in its last 8 games as an underdog when facing an opponent with a win percentage of less than .900. Green Bay is 6-1 which is good for a win percentage of .857.
Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .583 or better (Chiefs) that’s coming off an away win by 15 points or more, and they allowed 24 points or fewer in that win, versus an opponent (Packers) coming off a home game in which they scored and allowed 24 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 55-3 (94.7%) straight up since 1984. The straight up results take on added significance since it supports the underdog in this contest. Bet on the Chiefs plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-20-19||Ravens v. Seahawks -3||Top||30-16||Loss||-100||27 h 21 m||Show|
Ravens @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET
Play On: Seahawks -3.0 (10*)
Baltimore enters this week atop the AFC North with a 4-2 record. However, they’ve faced just 1 team in their first 6 games that currently has a winning record.
Seattle has maintained one of the strongest home field advantages in the NFL during the past 8 seasons. Specifically, the Seahawks are 51-13 at home since 2012, and that includes 35-6 when facing non-division opponents. That’s something I just can’t ignore when considering the small point-spread they’re being asked to cover in this contest. Furthermore, Seattle is 9.0 ATS as a non-division home favorite of between 1.5 and 5.0 since 2012. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests was a substantial 20.3 points per game. Seattle is coming off a 32-28 win at Cleveland last Sunday and it improved their season record to 5-1 (.833). Their only loss came to the 5-1 New Orleans Saints.
Any NFL home favorite of 2.5 to 7.0 with a win percentage of .800 or better, and they’re coming off a game in which they scored 28 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .666 to .818, and they’re playing after Game 6 of its season, resulted in those home favorites going 16-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 16 contests came by an enormous average of 20.3 points per game. Vet on the Seahawks minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-13-19||Eagles v. Vikings -3||Top||20-38||Win||100||25 h 51 m||Show|
Eagles @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET
Play On: Vikings -3.0 (10*)
The Eagles are coming off a convincing 31-6 home win over the Jets and easily covered as a large 13.0-point favorite. However, they were held to an alarmingly low 265 yards of total offense in that contest. That’s worrisome considering they will be facing a Vikings defense that’s #4 in the NFL in yards allowed at 292.4 per game. As a matter of fact, during their last 3 contests Minnesota has allowed just 13.3 points and 260.7 yards per game.
Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach of the Vikings in 2014, they’ve been a stellar 30-12 SU&ATS during regular season home games. Furthermore, they’ve gone a terrific 19-1 SU&ATS as a non-division home favorite of 11.0 or less under Zimmer, and that includes 10-0 ATS if they were facing an opponent with a winning record. Bet on the Vikings for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-07-19||Browns v. 49ers -4.5||Top||3-31||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
Browns @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET
Play On: 49ers -4.5 (10*)
The Browns are coming off an excellent performance last week at Baltimore in which they won by a decisive 40-25 margin. The win evened their record at 2-2. Cleveland has won road games in consecutive weeks since 2002. They had one opportunity to accomplish the feat last season, but they lost at Houston 29-13. The Browns will be without the services of 2 of their young star defensive backs in Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward.
The 49ers are in a rare situation in which they’re playing at home on a Monday following a bye week. San Francisco is coming off a 24-20 win over Pittsburgh in their home opener 2 weeks ago that improved their season record to 3-0. They won that game against Pittsburgh despite turning the ball over 5 times. Any Monday night home favorite of 4.0 to 9.0-points that’s coming off a bye week, and they won their previous game, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those Monday home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. They won those 6 contests by an average of 21.7 points per game.
The 49ers have been strong defensively thus far while allowing only 18.0 points and 283.3 yards per game. During their last games San Francisco has amassed a combined 1008 yards of total offense.
Any non-division home favorite of 5.5 or less that’s coming off a straight up win by 17 points or fewer, and they possess a winning record, Versus an opponent coming off a division away underdog straight up win, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 ATS since 1981. The average victory margin in those 12 contests came by 13.3 points per game. Bet on the 49ers for a 10* Top Play wager.
|10-06-19||Broncos v. Chargers -6||Top||20-13||Loss||-109||29 h 59 m||Show|
Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET
Play On: Chargers -6.0 (10*)
Denver is coming off a 26-24 home loss to Jacksonville in a game they failed to cover as a 2.5-point favorite. The loss dropped the Broncos season record to 0-4. Adding insult to injury, Denver lost Bradley Chubb to a season ending injury in that loss to the Jaguars.
The Chargers are of to their usual slow start and are 2-2 thus far. They’re coming off a 30-10 win at Miami last Sunday in a game they covered as a 14.5-point favorite. Los Angeles will get an extra boost by the return of star running back Melvin Gordon following a holdout.
Any NFL home favorite of 6.0 or more that’s coming off an away favorite of 3.0 or greater ATS win in which they scored 21 points or more, and they have at least 1 loss on the season, versus an opponent coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 20 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorites going 14-0 ATS since 2002. The average victory margin in those 14 contests was 24.6 points per game. Bet on the Chargers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager.