Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-29-23 | Louisiana Tech v. UTEP -114 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -114 | 88 h 15 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Texas El Paso Miners over Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs will play their 2nd straight road game after losing (but covering) at Nebraska last weekend, in a 28-14 defeat. Meanwhile, the Miners come into this game on a 3-game SU/ATS losing streak following a 45-28 loss here, at home, to UNLV last Saturday. We'll take UTEP to bounce back in this game vs. the Bulldogs, as UTEP has cashed 63% over the last 39 years at home as a favorite (or PK) in conference games off a SU loss. And Louisiana Tech is 0-7-1 ATS on the road vs. conference foes, and 0-8 ATS its last eight off a point spread win. Take UTEP. Good luck, as always, Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-23 | Cubs -111 v. Brewers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Braves have captured the top prize in the NL (best record) but they simply can't stop winning despite having nothing else to play for until the NLDS. They did it again on Thursday, beating the Cubs at home behind -- what else -- great pitching and timely hitting. Now the Cubs need to win more than ever as the Marlins came back to beat the Mets last night which means Chicago is currently on the outside looking in on the Wild Card race. They will face another team with nothing to play for in the Brewers tonight in Milwaukee. There's probably nobody they'd rather have on the mound to start this crucial game than veteran RH Kyle Hendricks. Despite an overall 6-8 record, the 33-year-old has logged a very solid 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 23 starts covering just under 133 innings. In 33 career regular season starts vs. the Brewers covering 188 innings, Hendricks is 10-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and he's 3-3 with a 3.03 ERA on the road this season (vs. 3-5 and 4.16 at home). Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
09-28-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -173 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. The Blue Jays have been blanked two straight games by the Pinstripes, with Gerrit Cole throwing a complete game, 2-hit shutout last night. Toronto generally bounces back off poor offensive games, as it's 39-22 (+11.5 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs, and also 42-30 (+9.6 net games) after scoring less than 2 runs in back to back games. Chris Bassitt will toe the rubber for the Jays tonight, and he shut out the Yankees over 7 innings in his lone 2023 start vs. New York -- a 3-0 Toronto victory. Luke Weaver will get the start for New York, and he's 1-9 in his last 10 decisions on the road (dating back to 2020). This season, he's 1-4 with a 6.38 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP away from Yankee Stadium. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-27-23 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -101 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the New York Yankees. Despite having everything to play for, the Blue Jays couldn't score a run against the Yankees last night and now the AL Wild Card race is even tighter. These two will go at it again tonight in Toronto with likely AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole going to the mound for the final time this season. Toronto's Jose Berrios, on the other hand, isn't in line for a post-season award, but he has a chance to shine tonight, and be a difference-maker. With the Jays' post-season chances hanging in the balance, I look for the 29-year-old veteran RHP to turn in a quality start in what just might be the biggest game of his career. Berrios is 11-11 with a 3.58 ERA overall this season but here at Rogers Centre he is 6-5 with a 3.11 ERA in 14 starts (vs. just 5-6 and 3.97 in 17 on the road). Toronto is 40-20 after scoring less than 2 runs, including 15-6 off a shutout loss. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-26-23 | Astros v. Mariners -140 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Houston Astros. Houston blew out Seattle, 5-1, last night to move to 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the chase for the final playoff spot in the American League. Seattle will turn to RHP George Kirby tonight, as it looks to close the gap between the teams. The Mariners have been solid as a favorite of -150 (or less), as they've gone 71-44 (+15.9 net games), including 9-2 at home behind Kirby. And Kirby has been sensational vs. the powerful Astros lineup, as he has a 1.53 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in his three career starts. He has faced Houston just once here, at home, and it was his best performance, as he scattered six hits over seven scoreless innings. The Mariners are a super 52-34 (+22.2 net games) after scoring less than 3 runs. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-25-23 | Eagles v. Bucs +5 | Top | 25-11 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles come into this Monday Night Football game with a 2-0 record after beating the Patriots and Vikings to start the season. We'll go against Philly, as undefeated teams have cashed just 39.5% as a road favorite on Monday Night Football since 1980, including 2-11 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up and against-the-spread win. With Tampa, indeed, in off a 10-point victory over the Bears, I'll grab the points with the Buccaneers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Bears +12.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -104 | 105 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bears have started the season 0-2 SU/ATS, with an 18-point loss to Green Bay in Week 1, and a 10-point defeat last Sunday at Tampa. Meanwhile, KC is 1-1 SU/ATS as it lost to the Lions at home, but rebounded to take down the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week. I like taking underdogs in Week 3 off back to back double-digit losses, as they’ve covered 63% since 1980. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Saints +2.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 101 h 23 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Green Bay Packers. The Saints come into this week's game with one of the four best scoring defenses, along with Dallas, Baltimore and San Francisco. New Orleans has allowed just 16 ppg in its wins over Tennessee and Carolina. That bodes well for them in Week 3, as NFL teams have cashed 72.3% off a win in Week 2, if their defense was giving up less than 20 points per game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss. Even better: New Orleans is a solid 68-49 ATS as a road underdog off an ATS loss/tie in its previous game. Take the Saints. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Bills v. Commanders +6.5 | Top | 37-3 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Commanders are a surprising 2-0 following wins over the Cardinals and Broncos, and have been installed as a big home underdog vs. Buffalo, which blew out the Raiders by 28 points at home last week. I'll take the home team, as winning home underdogs have gone 99-60 ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a 15-point (or greater) blowout home win. Take the Commanders. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. The Patriots come into this divisional match-up off back to back home losses in which they were underdogs, and failed to cover the point spread. I'll take New England on the road vs. New York as NFL teams that failed to cover their first two games as underdogs have cashed 62% as favorites in Week 3. Also, the Patriots are 16-0 ATS in the regular season on the road off a straight-up home loss, when not favored by 7+ points. And the Jets are a miserable 68-120 ATS at home vs. foes that don't own a winning record. Take New England. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Texans +10 v. Jaguars | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 21 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Jacksonville. I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that don't have a winning record. And especially not against a winless team like Houston. Consider that .500 or worse teams are 69-109-3 ATS when laying 9 or more points to winless opposition. I’ll take the double-digits with Houston. | |||||||
09-23-23 | James Madison v. Utah State +6.5 | Top | 45-38 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 55 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over James Madison. The Dukes come into this game off an upset win of conference rival, Troy, and are now 3-0 on the season (but 1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Utah State is 1-2 SU, but 2-1 ATS. We played against Utah State last Friday, and easily got the $$$ when Air Force blew out the Aggies, 39-21, as a 9-point favorite. We'll take Utah State to bounce back on Saturday, as Mountain West conference teams have cashed 59.3% vs. non-conference foes off upset wins. And James Madison also falls into a negative system of mine, which is 60-104 ATS since 1980, that goes against certain teams off upset conference wins. Take Utah State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-23-23 | UAB v. Georgia -41.5 | Top | 21-49 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points over UAB. The #1-ranked Bulldogs are 3-0 on the season, but 0-2-1 ATS in Vegas after escaping last week with a too-close-for-comfort, 24-14 win vs. South Carolina. We'll lay the points with Kirby Smart's men, as defending National Champs have covered 60.2% since 1980 as double-digit home favorites off an ATS loss. And Georgia is 35-1 SU and 27-9 ATS as a favorite of -3 (or more) points off an ATS loss, while UAB is 0-8 ATS its last eight games away from Birmingham. Take Georgia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame +3.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 108 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish + the points over Ohio State. The Irish have easily won their first three games behind the brilliant play of ex-Wake Forest QB, Sam Hartman. He's already passed for over 1000 yards, and has 13 TDs and 0 interceptions. In what will no doubt be a raucous South Bend environment, I would rather have the veteran presence of Hartman than the relative inexperience of Kyle McCord (who will be making just his 5th career start). The Irish have been installed as a home underdog vs. the Buckeyes, and we'll happily take the points, as Notre Dame is 19-8-1 ATS at home when priced from -2 to +6 points. Even better: Notre Dame plays this game with revenge from a 21-10 loss at Columbus last season. And undefeated, single-digit, revenge-minded home underdogs have cashed 58% of non-conference games since 1980. Take the Irish. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Buffalo v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 58.5 | Top | 38-45 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Buffalo/Louisiana game. The Rajin' Cajuns have tended to go over the total away from home, but under the total at home. To wit: Louisiana is 9-3 OVER their last 12 games away, but it's gone UNDER the total in 15 of 18 home games, including 7-0 UNDER when the O/U line was greater than 57 points. I look for another low-scoring game here, as the UNDER falls into a 103-55 Totals system of mine. Take the UNDER. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Southern Miss -6.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 37-44 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 58 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles minus the points over Arkansas State. The Red Wolves are 1-2 on the season, but 0-2 in games vs. FBS foes. And they've been outscored, 117-34 on the season, for a negative scoring margin of -27.66. That doesn't bode well here, as Southern Miss is 40-4 SU and 32-10-2 ATS as a favorites of less than 24 points vs. conference foes with a negative scoring margin of -8.5 points (or worse). Admittedly, Golden Eagles RB Frank Gore, Jr. did get injured in last week's loss to Tulane. But Southern Miss head coach, Will Hall, gave promising news Monday when he stated that Gore "had a great workout this morning. He's looking good." Regardless of whether Gore ultimately suits up on Saturday, we'll lay the points with the road favorite. Take the Golden Eagles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 55 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Colorado State Rams + the points over Middle Tennessee St. The Rams suffered a brutal overtime loss to rival Colorado last Saturday. But they easily covered the 23.5-point spread in defeat. Today, the Rams will be seeking revenge against an MTSU squad which defeated it last season, 34-19, in Fort Collins. The Rams are 8-1 ATS with revenge vs. non-conference foes when not getting 7+ points. And they're 50-24 ATS off a point spread win, when not getting 3+ points in their current game. Take Colorado State. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Central Michigan +15.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 105 h 57 m | Show |
At 5 pm, our selection is on the Central Michigan Chippewas + the points over South Alabama. Last week, the Jaguars pulled off a huge upset win over Oklahoma State when they won, 33-7, as a 7-point road underdog. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Sun Belt Conference teams have covered just 35.2% as favorites of more than 8 points following a non-conference upset win. That doesn't bode well for South Alabama on Saturday. Nor does the fact that Sun Belt teams have covered just 17 of 48 at home or neutral fields vs. Mid-American Conference foes. Take Central Michigan + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Oklahoma State +3.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -105 | 104 h 57 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma State Cowboys + the points over Iowa State. Both of these Big 12 teams come into this game off non-conference losses. The Cowboys were blown out in Stillwater, 33-7, by South Alabama, while Ohio upset the Cyclones, 10-7, in Athens. We'll grab the points with Mike Gundy's men, as they're 7-0 ATS off a 14-point (or worse) upset defeat. Take the Cowboys + the points. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Colorado v. Oregon -21 | Top | 6-42 | Win | 100 | 104 h 44 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon Ducks minus the points over Colorado. Both the Ducks and Buffaloes are 3-0 on the season. But there's still a wide disparity in talent, which is why Oregon is a sizable home favorite on Saturday afternoon. We'll lay the points with the Ducks, as they're 30-13-1 ATS at home after covering the spread by 7+ points in winning their previous game. And they're 8-2 ATS their last 10 games vs. Colorado. Take the Ducks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Boston College v. Louisville -13.5 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 104 h 32 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Boston College. We played on the Eagles last week, and got the $$$$ when they easily covered as a 26-point underdog at home vs. Florida State. But Boston College will be playing its first road game of the season on Saturday, and it's a poor 4-10 ATS its last 14 away from Chestnut Hill. That doesn't bode well for BC on Saturday afternoon. Nor does the fact that the Cardinals check in off a point spread defeat. And Louisville is a sensational 14-3-1 ATS off an ATS loss, including a perfect 7-0 ATS as a favorite. Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-23-23 | New Mexico v. UMass UNDER 49.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -115 | 103 h 27 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the UMass/New Mexico game UNDER the total. We played on the UNDER in Massachusetts' game vs. Eastern Michigan last Saturday and easily got the $$$ when the two teams only combined for 36 points, and went way under the total of 50. We'll look for another low-scoring game here, as the Lobos have gone UNDER 11 straight road games following a home game. And the UNDER also falls into a 140-86 Totals system of mine. Take the UNDER. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Rutgers v. Michigan -24 | Top | 7-31 | Push | 0 | 100 h 3 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Rutgers. The Wolves are 3-0 and ranked #2 in the country, and lead the nation in defensive ppg (5.3). They've been without head coach, Jim Harbaugh, for their first 3 games, as he served a school-imposed suspension. But Harbaugh will be back on the sidelines this Saturday. And Michigan has gone 23-1 SU and 17-6-1 ATS in the regular season the past two seasons with Harbaugh, including 7-1-1 ATS when priced from -21 to -49 points. We'll lay the points with Michigan, as NCAA double-digit favorites off an ATS loss, have gone 12-1 ATS in Game 4, if they owned a defense that gave up less than 8 ppg. Meanwhile, undefeated, 3-0 teams (like Rutgers) off an ATS win, have cashed just 25% since 1980 when getting 20+ points. And Rutgers is also a soft 15-36 ATS when priced from +21.5 to +33.5 points. Take Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-22-23 | Pirates v. Reds -165 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Rookie southpaw Andrew Abbott will get the start for the Reds, who are looking to bounce back from a collapse Wednesday against Minnesota. The Reds led 3-2 before the Twins erupted for three runs in the 9th off closer Alexis Diaz. With that loss, Cincy is a 0.5 game back of the Cubs and Marlins in the chase for the final Wild Card berth. Tonight, Abbott will be working with extra rest, and the Reds are 5-1 in his starts when he's pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Even better: in Abbott's lone start vs. the Buccos this season, he struck out 9, against 0 walks, and Cincy cruised to a 9-2 win. Pittsburgh has yet to name a starter, but Luis Ortiz is the likely candidate. In his previous start, he was ineffective, and gave up six hits and a season-high six walks in just 4 2/3 innings, and the Bucs lost, 6-3, to the Yankees. For the season, Ortiz has a 5.16 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP. The Reds are 4-1 this year vs. NL starters with a WHIP at 1.65 (or worse), and 41-25 (+20.2 net games) vs. losing teams. Meanwhile, the Pirates are 29-51 (minus 7.5 net games) vs. winning teams (compared to 43-30 (+18.7 net games) vs. non-winning teams). Take Cincinnati. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-21-23 | Giants +10 v. 49ers | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the San Francisco 49ers. The Giants' defense has left a lot to be desired so far, this season. New York allowed 40 points to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, and then gave up 28 to the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday. But off those two awful defensive games, I actually look for a much better effort in Week 3. Indeed, NFL road teams not favored by 3 or more points, have gone 39-12-3 ATS in Week 3 if they allowed 62 or more points over their first two games, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS off a straight up win. Take New York + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-21-23 | Georgia State v. Coastal Carolina -6.5 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers minus the points over Georgia State. After blowing out Duquesne, 66-7, the Chanticleers are a perfect 3-0 ATS on the season, and will welcome the Panthers to Conway for this Sun Belt Conference opener. We'll lay the points with Coastal Carolina, as single-digit home favorites have covered 59.4% of conference games since 1980 after winning a game in which they scored 60+ points. Take the Chanticleers to blow out Georgia State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-20-23 | Giants +102 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over Arizona. The Giants are now 3 games behind the Cubs for the final Wild Card berth, so the pressure is definitely on in the final 11 games of the season. Tonight, San Francisco will turn to its ace, Logan Webb, who has a 3.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP on the season. Webb has been terrific vs. Arizona in his career, as he has a 2.62 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 9 starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Merrill Kelly got bombed in his last outing, as he gave up 7 runs in five innings. And that was the 2nd time in his last four starts that he surrendered 7 runs in 5 innings. Take San Francisco. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-19-23 | Red Sox v. Rangers -153 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Boston Red Sox. If the Rangers fail to make the 2023 Post-season (right now they are in an almost statistical tie for the final Al Wild Card spot) it might not be fair to call their second-half collapse "epic," but it will still be a huge disappointment to anyone who was rooting for them. If you take away the four game sweep of the Blue Jays in Toronto last week, the Rangers have a 6-20 record in their last 26 games going back to August 16. A big part of the problem has been pitching injuries. And in fact tonight's starter, RH Nathan Eovaldi was on the shelf for over a month from July 18 to September 5. Since coming back to the rotation, Texas has treated the 33-year-old with kid gloves, giving Eovaldi starts of 1 1/3, 2 1/3, and 3 1/3 innings respectively. Expect those gloves to come off a bit tonight as the Rangers are in dire need of a quality start from their veteran -- something he did so many times in the first half of the season. In eight career games vs. the Red Sox -- seven starts -- Eovaldi is 3-0. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-18-23 | Phillies +103 v. Braves | Top | 7-1 | Win | 103 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. If you've ever wondered how important Ronald Acuna is to the Braves as the regular hitter at the top of their lineup, just take a look at the last two Atlanta games. The likely NL MVP exited Friday's game vs. the Marlins with a calf injury and didn't play on Saturday or Sunday. Florida went on to win both games this weekend by a combined score of 27-7. Obviously, there's no panic in the Braves as they have the NL East wrapped up so they will likely leave Acuna out a little while longer if he's anything other than 100%. That will be fine with the Phillies who play the first of three in Atlanta this evening. Zack Wheeler will head to the mound for the visitors in Game 1. The 33-year-old RH is having another solid season, going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 29 starts covering 175 innings. In 26 regular season starts vs. the Braves, Wheeler is 11-7 with a 3.24 ERA with 168 strikeouts in 164 innings. He had his best start of 2023 here at Truist Park on May 27 (8 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 12 K, 1 BB). Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
09-17-23 | Cubs -112 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubbies will look to snap a 4-game losing streak tonight, and avoid a series sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks. Chicago will hand the ball to rookie LHP Jordan Wicks, who has been brilliant in his four starts this season. Wicks has allowed just five runs over 22 2/3 innings, for a 1.99 ERA. And, most importantly, Chicago is a perfect 4-0 in his outings. Ryne Nelson will oppose Wicks, and he's made 26 starts for the D-Backs this season. Arizona has won just 11 of those 26 starts, and his ERA is an ugly 5.53. At home, it balloons to 8.59, while it's 9.00 over his last three starts. The D-Backs are 3-10 his last 13 home starts, including 0-5 his last five. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Dodgers v. Mariners -115 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yesterday, the Mariners and Dodgers were scoreless through 9 innings, and Los Angeles prevailed, 6-2, in extra innings. The Mariners will look to bounce back off that loss on this Sunday, and will turn to RHP Logan Gilbert. In interleague games this season, Gilbert is 7-1 in 11 starts, with a 2.79 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Even better, when Seattle's lost its two previous games, it's gone 54-40 (+23.40 net games). And it's a stellar 71-50 (+29.4 net games) after scoring less than three runs. Take the Mariners on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Giants -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 10 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Arizona. The Giants laid a goose egg last Sunday, as they were shut out, 40-0, by Dallas. Off that embarrassing defeat, we'll step in and lay the points with New York in Week 2. Indeed, road favorites (or PK) have covered 64% since 1980 off a division shutout loss. And the Giants are also a solid 42-23-1 ATS off a home point spread defeat. Take New York minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-17-23 | 49ers v. Rams +8 | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 82 h 7 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over San Francisco. The Rams pulled off a stunning Week 1 upset, when they blew out the Seattle Seahawks, 30-13, on the road. They will now welcome the 49ers to SoFi Stadium. We'll take the Rams as a huge underdog, as home dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 72-53 ATS off a road upset win. And San Francisco is a wallet-busting 35-58 ATS away from home off a win by 13+ points, including 5-18 ATS when priced from -4 to -10 points. Take the Rams. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Astros -230 v. Royals | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Kansas City Royals. The Astros will look to bounce back off 2 losses to start this series, and will send southpaw Framber Valdez to the mound this afternoon. Valdez is a big favorite vs. Royals' RHP Jordan Lyles, and understandably so. Lyles carries a 6.33 ERA into this game (and 8.24 in the daytime), and the Royals have won just five of his 28 starts. Meanwhile, Valdez has a 1.67 daytime ERA and Houston is 11-2 with Valdez as a road favorite priced at -175 (or more) in his career. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Bears +2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -100 | 79 h 9 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Tampa Bay Bucs. Last week, the Bears were upset, 38-20, by their rival, Green Bay, while Tampa upset Minnesota, 20-17. If one looks at the yardage stats, however, one will see that Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards (329-311), while Tampa was outgained by 127 (369-242). The difference in the two games, of course, was turnovers. Chicago committed 2 turnovers (vs 0 for Green Bay), while Tampa forced 3 turnovers, and didn't commit any, itself. We'll fade Tampa off its upset win, as home favorites have covered just 31% since 1980 in Week 2 off an upset road victory, if its opponent was off an upset defeat. Grab the points with Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Seahawks +5 v. Lions | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 7 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Detroit. The Lions upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to kick off their season. But off that upset victory, we'll fade Detroit on Sunday. Indeed, over the past 43 years, home favorites have covered just 30.7% off an upset win over the defending Super Bowl champs, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset defeat. With Seattle in off an upset loss at the hands of the Rams, we'll grab the points with Pete Carroll's men. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Raiders v. Bills -9.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 2 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders. Josh Allen could not have played worse last Monday, as he committed a key fumble, and also threw 3 interceptions. We didn't mind, as we had a big play on the Jets. But we'll switch gears, and take Buffalo to bounce back here, at home, in Week 2. The Bills are a solid 20-6 ATS as a home favorite off a road loss, when playing an opponent off a win. Lay the points. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Packers v. Falcons +1 | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 79 h 1 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have been installed as a small road favorite following their upset win, 38-20, over division rival, Chicago. We'll fade Green Bay, as road favorites have covered just 33% since 1980 in Week 2 off upset wins on the road over a division rival to start the season. I look for Green Bay to have a letdown on Sunday. Take Atlanta. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Hawaii v. Oregon UNDER 68.5 | Top | 10-55 | Win | 100 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii/Oregon game Under the total. Both of these teams come into this Saturday night game off Unders: the Ducks outlasted the Texas Tech Red Raiders, 38-30, and the game went under by a half-point, while Hawaii defeated Albany, 31-20, and that game went under by 5.5 points. The Rainbows have historically been an Over team at home, but have gone Under more often than not on the road. We'll take the UNDER, as it falls into an 81-29 Totals system of mine | |||||||
09-16-23 | Bowling Green v. Michigan -39.5 | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points over Bowling Green. This will be the 3rd (and final) game of Jim Harbaugh's suspension for alleged NCAA violations. The Wolves have won both games in his absence, but have failed to cover the spread. I like Michigan to break through today with an ATS win, as it is 12-0 ATS as a home favorite of -14 (or more) points off back to back ATS defeats. Lay the wood. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | BYU +8 v. Arkansas | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Brigham Young Cougars + the points over Arkansas. These two teams met last season in Provo, and the Razorbacks won, 52-35. We'll take the revenge-minded Cougars + the points in Fayetteville, as BYU is 22-4 ATS as revenge-minded road underdogs, including 8-0 ATS its last eight in this situation. Grab the points. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Syracuse v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Purdue Boilermakers + the points over Syracuse. The Orange have been stellar defensively to start the season. They allowed just 7 points last week in a 48-7 victory over Western Michigan, and shut out Colgate, 65-0, to kick off the season. They're now favored by a small amount on the road vs. Purdue, which won, 24-17, as a 1-point favorite last week at Virginia Tech. This is a revenge match for Purdue, which lost, 32-29, at Syracuse last season. We'll take the home underdog Boilermakers, as home dogs off a SU/ATS win have cashed 66% since 1981 in non-conference games vs. foes that gave up less than 10 points in their two previous games. Additionally, the Orange are 14-28-1 ATS in their last 43 games vs. revenge-minded foes. Take the Boilermakers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Miami-OH +14.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 29 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Ohio RedHawks + the points over Cincinnati. The Bearcats pulled off a huge upset of the Pitt Panthers last week, 27-21. But off that upset win, we'll fade the Bearcats as a big favorite on Saturday. The RedHawks are playing with revenge from a 38-17 loss last season. And revenge-minded double digit underdogs have 65.6% since 1980 against non-conference foes off an upset win as a 3.5-point (or greater) underdog. Take Miami-Ohio. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Western Kentucky v. Ohio State -29.5 | Top | 10-63 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Ohio State Buckeyes minus the points over Western Kentucky. Ryan Day's Buckeyes have gotten off to a slow start this season -- at least in Las Vegas -- as they're 0-2 ATS (though 2-0 SU). And they've failed to cover the point spread by double-digits in each win. Notwithstanding this lack of point spread success, we'll take Ohio State on Saturday, as it's 8-0 ATS its last eight (and 50-38-2 ATS its last 90) off back to back point spread defeats. Lay the points with the Buckeyes. | |||||||
09-16-23 | East Carolina +8.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 28-43 | Loss | -109 | 35 h 6 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the East Carolina Pirates + the points over Appalachian State. The Mountaineers have been installed as a favorite of more than a TD vs. East Carolina, and we'll happily take the underdog Pirates, as Appalachian State is a horrid 0-13 ATS its last 13 when priced from +4 to -8.5 points. Take East Carolina. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Northwestern +17 v. Duke | Top | 14-38 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm our selection is on the Northwestern Wildcats + the points over Duke. The Duke Blue Devils are 2-0 and ranked #21 in the country, and own an impressive win over then-No. 9 Clemson. On Saturday, the Blue Devils will host a Northwestern team in transition this season following the firing of longtime head coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Wildcats and Blue Devils have met each of the previous two seasons, and six of the last eight. And what’s most unusual is that Duke has won outright as an underdog in each of the last four meetings, including 31-23 as a double-digit road underdog last season. This year, of course, it’s Northwestern catching double-digits, and I’ll take the points with the Wildcats. For technical support, consider that teams playing with revenge that were upset in each of the previous three meetings have covered 58.3% the past 43 years, including 34-18-1 ATS, 65%, on the road. I know that Duke has been an ATM machine under 2nd-year head coach Mike Elko, as it’s gone 10-3 ATS. But it was only favored by more than 10 points one other time, and it failed to cover that game vs. Boston College as an 11.5-point favorite. Here, it’s laying considerably more than that, and my numbers say It’s too many points. Take Northwestern. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | UMass v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 50.5 | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 34 h 46 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts/Eastern Michigan game UNDER the total. The Minutemen have gone Over the total in three straight games to start the season, as their first three games totaled 71, 73 and 69 points. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan has played each of its games Under the total, including a 25-6 loss at Minnesota last week, which went Under by 16.5 points. I look for UMass to play a relatively low-scoring game vs. the Eagles on Saturday afternoon, as teams off 3+ Overs have gone 561-497 Under the total, including 139-106 UNDER if their opponent was off back to back Unders. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Georgia Southern v. Wisconsin -19.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Wisconsin Badgers minus the points over Georgia Southern. The Badgers were upset by the Washington State Cougars, 31-22, as a 5.5-point road favorite last Saturday. And that was the 2nd straight ATS defeat for Luke Fickell's men. We'll lay the points with Wisky in this game, as favorites of 14+ points have covered 83% since 1980 in Week 3, if they were off an upset loss, and were 0-2 ATS on the season. Last year, Wisconsin was upset four times, and was a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS off those upset defeats, winning by an average of 28 points (and covering by an average of 14.25). This will be a rout. Take the Badgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Kansas State v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 55 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers + the points over Kansas State. The Tigers had a scare last week, as it won, 23-19, as a 21-point home favorite vs. Middle Tennessee. This Saturday, it will be a home underdog vs. the 15th-ranked Wildcats, who are 2-0 SU/ATS. I love Missouri in this game, as it's covered 75% over the past 43 years as a home dog off an ATS loss vs. foes off back to back SU/ATS wins. Meanwhile, K-State is a wallet-crushing 7-19 ATS on the non-conference road when not getting 17+ points, including 3-7 ATS as a road favorite. Take Missouri. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Iowa State v. Ohio OVER 42 | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 46 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the OVER in the Ohio/Iowa State game. These two teams' games have averaged 33.8 ppg this season, and all five of those games went under the total. That has led to this O/U line being depressed, and my math says the value is clearly on the Over. MAC Conference home teams have gone OVER the total 58.1% in non-conference games, and we'll look for a relatively high-scoring game on Saturday. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Liberty v. Buffalo +3 | Top | 55-27 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the Buffalo Bulls + the points over Liberty. The Bulls was shocked last week in an upset home loss to Fordham, 40-37, as a 22.5-point favorite. The Bulls are now installed as a home underdog vs. the 2-0 SU/ATS Flames, and we'll grab the points, as home dogs have cashed 60% since 1980 off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite if matched up against a non-conference foe off back to back ATS wins. Buffalo's also cashed 82% the last 22 years as underdogs vs. non-conference foes off a SU/ATS win. Take the Bulls. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Florida State v. Boston College +26.5 | Top | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Boston College Eagles + the points over Florida State. The Seminoles have sprinted out to a 2-0 SU/ATS start with blowout wins over LSU (45-24) and Southern Miss (66-13). In contrast, the Eagles are 0-2 ATS after being upset, 27-24, by Northern Illinois in Week 1, and narrowly defeating Holy Cross last week, 31-28, as as 10.5-point favorite. We'll fade Florida State as a big favorite on Saturday, as ACC Conference favorites of -7 (or more) points have gone 21-49-1 ATS off back to back ATS wins when playing an opponent off back to back ATS losses, including 0-9 ATS vs. foes off a SU win. Take Boston College. | |||||||
09-15-23 | Cubs -130 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Justin Steele is a leading contender for the NL Cy Young Award, as he has a 16-3 record, with a 2.49 ERA. In his last start (last Saturday) vs. this Diamondbacks club, he was once again brilliant, as he gave up just one run over seven innings. He's now made three career starts vs. Arizona, and has a 1.00 ERA with a 0.77 WHIP. The Cubs did lose that game, 3-2, which snapped a 9-game win streak by Chicago in Steele's starts. We'll take Chicago tonight, as Steele has a spectacular 0.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his last three outings, while his mound opponent -- Brandon Pfaadt -- has a 6.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in his last three starts. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-15-23 | Utah State v. Air Force -9.5 | Top | 21-39 | Win | 100 | 4 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Air Force Falcons minus the points over Utah State. The Falcons come into this game playing with revenge from a 34-27 loss to the Aggies last season as an 11.5-point favorite. Both teams do come into this game off impressive wins. Utah State dispatched Idaho St, 78-28, while Air Force defeated Sam Houston St, 13-3. We're going to lay the points with Air Force, as revenge-minded home favorites have covered 67% since 1980 vs. foes that scored 63+ points the previous week. Take Air Force. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-15-23 | Virginia v. Maryland -14.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 37 h 13 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Maryland Terrapins minus the points over Virginia. The Terps will host a former ACC Conference rival, Virginia, on Friday night. Maryland left the ACC for the Big 10 Conference in 2014, but has gone 4-1 SU/ATS vs. the ACC since then. And the Terrapins have also been terrific since 1980 as a home favorite of -7 (or more) points vs. ACC schools, as they've covered 63.8%. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS as road underdogs vs. foes off back to back ATS losses. Take Maryland minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-15-23 | Army +8 v. UTSA | Top | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Army Black Knights + the points over Texas San Antonio. QB Frank Harris suffered a toe injury in last week's win, but managed to play through the pain, and guided the Roadrunners to the win over Texas State. He's questionable to play tonight. Regardless, we're going to go against Texas San Antonio, and grab the points with Army. The Black Knights play this game with revenge from a 41-38 loss at home to UTSA last season, and fall into a 228-145-5 ATS revenge system of mine. Additionally, the Roadrunners are a dismal 1-15 ATS their last 16 when priced from -6.5 to -10.5 points. Take Army. Good luck, a always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-14-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -146 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -146 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. It wasn't their worst loss of the season -- back in June they lost to the Marlins, 11-0 -- but the Jays' 10-0 embarrassment on Wednesday here at home to the Rangers means that they are staring down the barrel of a four-game series sweep tonight. Not only have the Rangers won the first three games of this series but they've out-scored the Jays by a total of 26-7 in those. Fortunately, Toronto will send its ace, RH Kevin Gausman to the mound for his 29th start of the season. Gerrit Cole might have the advantage in the AL Cy Young race right now, but Gausman isn't that far behind with an 11-8 record, 3.28 ERA and league-leading 217 strikeouts in just over 167 innings for the Jays so far. In 10 career appearances vs. the Rangers -- nine starts -- Gausman is 5-2 with a 3.43 ERA with 56 strikeouts and 15 walks in just under 58 innings. And Gausman's ERA at home this season is almost a half-run better than it is on the road (3.07 vs. 3.52). Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-13-23 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -112 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Texas Rangers. With their hopes of winning the AL East all but vanished, the Blue Jays must now focus on nailing down one of the three Wild Card spots. But with their losses to the Rangers the last two nights, that opportunity could be slipping away as well in the ultra-competitive American League playoff race. They'll try to turn this series around tonight as the Rangers and Jays each send a lefty to the mound in this third of four games against each other this week. For Toronto, it will be Japanese veteran Yusei Kikuchi who will get his 29th start of the season. Kikuchi has been very solid if not spectacular in his second season with the Blue Jays. In just under 149 innings, the 32-year-old southpaw is 9-5 with a 3.57 ERA and those nine victories represent the most he's had in his five seasons in the Majors. No doubt he'd love to get to double-digit wins tonight and he has a good chance to do that as in five career games vs. Texas (four starts), Kikuchi is 3-0 with a 3.48 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-12-23 | Rays v. Twins -127 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Tampa Bay Rays. Last night, the Twins lost, 7-4, as a home underdog to the Rays and Tyler Glasgow. Tonight, Minnesota will be favored behind RHP Joe Ryan. We'll back the home team, as the Twins are a solid 43-22 (+14.6 net games) at home when favored by -150 or less. Even better: Ryan has a 2.40 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 outings, and is profitable as a favorite in his career starts (26-16), while unprofitable as an underdog. Finally, Tampa has burned money this season as a road underdog (8-14, minus 5.2 net games). Take the Twins to snap their 2-game losing streak. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Jets are looking for big things this season behind newly-acquired QB Aaron Rodgers. And it all starts tonight, in a Week 1 game against division rival, Buffalo. We'll grab the points with New York, as Aaron Rodgers has gone 73-43-4 ATS at home in his career starts, including 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and 29-13 ATS in division games. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are a wallet-busting 9-16-1 ATS as a division road favorite. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie | |||||||
09-10-23 | Dolphins v. Chargers -3 | Top | 36-34 | Loss | -109 | 154 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins. The Chargers are my Futures Pick this season at 25-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. I expect a major leap forward for Brandon Staley’s men and one of my primary reasons is the hire of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator. When Moore was with the Cowboys the past 4 seasons, Dallas’s offense ranked among the Top 4 in the league over that 4-year stretch. The Chargers added rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnson, who was their first round draft pick, and he’ll team up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to give 4th year QB Justin Herbert a trio of quality receivers to throw downfield. And, of course, the Chargers have Austin Ekeler in the backfield, so the pieces are there to make a Super Bowl run. The Chargers are 15-2-1 ATS in season openers when not favored by 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in non-division games. Take Los Angeles to blow out Miami. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots +4 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 154 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Philadelphia. The Patriots have been installed as a home underdog vs. the defending NFC Conference champs, and I’ll grab the points with Bill Belichick's men. New England is 31-16-1 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-7 ATS vs. non-division foes, while Philly is a poor 10-22 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points, including 3-12 ATS in non-division games. Even worse for the Eagles: the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year have gone 12-32-2 ATS as a non-division road favorite of -4 or less points vs. non-division foes. Finally, the Underdog is 8-3 ATS in this series. Take the Patriots + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Cubs have lost the first three games of this series, and will try to salvage one game with a victory this afternoon. Kyle Hendricks will toe the rubber for the home team today, and his teams have gone 55-27 with him on the mound when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 27-7 at home. The Cubs are 7-2 in day games with Hendricks, and 71-41 when priced from -125 to -175, while Arizona is an awful 56-93 (minus 10.1 net games) as an underdog priced from +125 to +175. Take the Cubbies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Bengals v. Browns +2.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals. Division home dogs in the month of September are 51-29 ATS their last 80. And the underdog | |||||||
09-09-23 | Auburn v. California +6.5 | Top | 14-10 | Win | 103 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the California Golden Bears + the points over Auburn. We played on the Tigers last week as our NCAA Football Game of the Week, and were rewarded with a 59-14 massacre of UMass. But off that 45-point triumph, we'll switch gears, and fade the Tigers in Berkeley on Saturday night. Like Auburn, California's offense was in high gear last weekend, as they annihilated North Texas, 58-21, as a 5-point road favorite. California piled up 669 yards of offense, and allowed the Mean Green just 225. Auburn is 0-6 ATS its last six non-conference road games, and has covered just 28% as a non-conference road favorite over the last 40 seasons. Take California + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-09-23 | Stanford v. USC UNDER 69 | Top | 10-56 | Win | 100 | 108 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the USC/Stanford game. Caleb Williams & Co. exploded for 66 points in last week's thrashing of Nevada. And that game went way over the total of 63.5. Dating back to last season, the Trojans have now gone over the total in 10 straight games, including their previous three which totaled 80, 84 and 91 points. And the last three meetings between these two Pac-12 rivals have also gone over the total. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game here, on Saturday night. But I'm going to run the other way, and play on the UNDER, as the oddsmakers have set this number too high. Additionally, the UNDER falls into totals systems of mine with records of 81-29, 44-11 and 55-20. And, finally, the Trojans are 12-5 UNDER when the O/U line is greater than 67 points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-09-23 | Temple +9.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls + the points over Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights won their season-opener, 24-7, at home vs. Northwestern. But Rutgers is a poor 3-12 ATS off a point spread win, including 1-8 ATS at home. Temple also will be looking to avenge a home loss to the Scarlet Knights last season. And the Owls are a sensational 75-34-5 ATS when playing with revenge, and priced as an underdog of less than 23 points. Take Temple. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-09-23 | A's v. Rangers -226 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Oakland A's. This past Tuesday, Nathan Eovaldi made his return from the injured list, and it didn't go well, to say the least. Eovaldi didn't make it out of the 2nd inning, with 4 runs allowed in 1 1/3, and the Rangers went on to lose, 14-1, to rival Houston. Eovaldi will look to bounce back this evening against the Oakland A's, who took Game 1 of this series on Friday. That was the floundering Rangers' 4th straight loss, overall, so there's now an air of despration in Arlington. The good news is that Eovaldi shut out this A's team earlier this year (8 2/3 innings, 0 runs, 3 hits, 1 walk, 12 strikeouts). His career ERA is 2.97 vs Oakland. The A's are 0-7 off an upset division win if they were a +130 (or greater) underdog in that victory. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-09-23 | Oregon v. Texas Tech +7 | Top | 38-30 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 59 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Texas Tech Red Raiders + the points over Oregon. The Ducks put up 81 points last week in an 81-7 pummeling of Portland State. We'll go against Oregon on the road in Lubbock, as NCAA road teams have covered just 36% in Week 2 since 1990 after scoring more than 65 points in their season opener. Even better: Texas Tech is 15-0 ATS as a home underdog priced from +4 to +18 points off a SU/ATS loss. Take the Red Raiders + the points. | |||||||
09-09-23 | SMU v. Oklahoma -16 | Top | 11-28 | Win | 100 | 103 h 59 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over SMU. The Mustangs blew out Louisiana Tech, 38-14, last Saturday, in their season opener. Unfortunately, SMU is a wallet breaking 0-9 ATS its last nine (and 13-25 ATS its last 38) road games off a win by 15+ points, and 6-22 ATS on the road after scoring 38+ points. Take Oklahoma minus the points. | |||||||
09-09-23 | Texas A&M v. Miami-FL +5 | Top | 33-48 | Win | 100 | 101 h 10 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes + the points over Texas A&M. The Aggies walloped New Mexico, 52-10, as a 38-point home favorite last Saturday. But the Aggies have a massive step-up in class this weekend, as they will have to go into Hard Rock Stadium to take on a Hurricanes squad riding high after its season-opening 38-3 win over Miami-Ohio. The Hurricanes have cashed 68% since 1980 as home underdogs vs. non-conference foes, while Texas A&M is 0-15 ATS away from home in the regular season vs. .600 (or better) foes, if the Aggies weren't getting more than 14 points. Take Miami-Fla + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-09-23 | Nebraska +3.5 v. Colorado | Top | 14-36 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 17 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Nebraska Cornhuskers + the points over Colorado. The Buffaloes pulled off a massive upset last week, when they went into Fort Worth, and knocked off the Horned Frogs, 45-42, as a 21-point underdog. But off that stunning win, I'll look for a letdown on Saturday, as home favorites off an upset win as a double-digit underdog to kick off the season have covered just 35 percent over the last 43 years. Grab the points with Nebraska. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-09-23 | Notre Dame v. NC State +7.5 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -108 | 97 h 14 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, on Saturday, our selection is on the North Carolina State Wolfpack + the points over Notre Dame. NC State kicked off its season with a win at Connecticut, 24-14, last week, and will welcome the 2-0 Fighting Irish into Carter-Finley Stadium for their home opener. The Irish come into Raleigh off back to back stifling defensive performances. Notre Dame blew out Navy, 42-3, in Dublin, and then trounced Tennessee State, 56-3, in South Bend. But off those two games, we'll fade the Irish as a road favorite on Saturday. Indeed, since 1980, road favorites have covered just 25% vs. winning teams in Game 3, if our road favorite didn't give up more than 7 points combined in their first two games. NC State has won its last 13 home openers, straight-up, and I look for an upset win in this early game on Saturday. Grab the points with NC State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-08-23 | Royals v. Blue Jays -185 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Kansas City Royals. The Blue Jays are barely in the Playoffs, going into Friday's games, as they're a half-game ahead of the Texas Rangers. So, with just 22 games to go, Toronto knows it can't afford to lose games to division cellar-dwellers like Kansas City. The Blue Jays are, of course a heavy favorite. But given that the Royals are 21-67 (minus 25.0 net games) as an underdog priced from +175 to +250, I have no problem laying the big price. Even better: Yusei Kikuchi will get the start for the Blue Jays tonight, and he's given up just 5.14 hits and 1.55 walks per start. For the season, he has a 3.63 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, and the Blue Jays have won 17 of his 27 starts. Kansas City is a horrible 8-34 on the road vs. starters who give up 5.5 (or less) hits per start, and are also 35-88 (minus 34.6 net games) on the road vs. pitchers who give up less than 1.75 walks per start. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-07-23 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Atlanta Braves/St Louis Cardinals game. The Cardinals exploded for 11 runs against Spencer Strider and the Braves last night, and handed Atlanta its second straight blowout loss, as the Cards also won, 10-6, on Tuesday. Unfortunately for St Louis, it will be facing southpaw Max Fried this evening. And all Fried has done in his career vs. the Redbirds is go 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, as he's given up just 1 run in 25 2/3 innings. Adam Wainwright will get the start for St Louis, and has been stellar in his career vs the Braves, with a 3.36 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Admittedly, the 42-year-old hurler is on the decline, but he had the best start of his season in his last outing when he allowed 1 run over 6 innings vs. the Padres. The Cards are 58-45 UNDER vs. lefties. And the Braves have gone UNDER 69% after allowing 10 runs in back to back games. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-06-23 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Cincinnati Reds. The Mariners dropped their 3rd straight game yesterday, as they fell, 7-6, to the Reds. This evening, they'll turn to Logan Gilbert to stop the slide, and he's in great form. He has a 1.83 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over his last three outings. And his strikeout to walk ration was 19:2 in those three games. Gilbert has won his last seven decisions, and the Mariners are 9-2 in his last 11 starts. That bodes well for the Mariners. As does the fact that Gilbert's mound opponent will be rookie RHP Lyon Richardson. In his debut, on August 6 vs. the Nationals, Richardson did something no other MLB player had done in the last 50 years. And that was to give up two home runs on his first two career pitches! Richardson's ERA is 6.75, and his WHIP is 1.75, so I expect Seattle's bats to generate runs today. The Mariners are 11-2 their last 13 behind Gilbert when they've plated more than 3 runs. And they're 31-14 on the road (+19.6 net games) with Gilbert on the hill. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-05-23 | Brewers -170 v. Pirates | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh. The Buccos came back from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Milwaukee, 4-2, on Monday. That was the Brewers' 2nd straight loss, and we'll take the Brew Crew to bounce back this evening. Brandon Woodruff will get the ball for Craig Counsell's men and, dating back to last year, he's 7-1 his last eight decisions (covering 12 starts), and the Brewers are 10-2 in those 12 games. Milwaukee is 35-25 off a loss, including 8-1 off an upset loss to a division foe. Take the Brewers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-04-23 | Brewers -180 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -180 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. It may be hard to believe that Corbin Burnes hasn't won a game since July 20. But that doesn't mean that the 2021 NL Cy Young winner hasn't been effective. In the month of August, Burnes had a 3.98 ERA and the Brewers won three of his five starts. He would be the first to admit however that the previous month was much better for him as Burnes went 4-1 with a 1.85 ERA during July. But regardless of that, Burnes has an excellent chance to get September going with a bang as his first start of the month will be against the 63-74 Pirates. In 22 regular season games against Pittsburgh (10 starts) covering 75 2/3 innings, Burnes is 7-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. And those seven wins represent the most that Burnes has had against any team in the Majors. Perhaps more important is the fact that in 11 career games at PNC Park -- 5 starts -- Burnes is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Brewers are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with the Pirates going back to last August. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
09-03-23 | Orioles v. Diamondbacks -138 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Baltimore Orioles. With their win here last night, the Orioles extended their streak of not having been swept in a series since May of 2022 -- a string of 83 consecutive series. It's far from an all-time MLB record, but still very impressive for a team that not that long ago was considered pretty much a doormat of the AL East. Winning this series however will be difficult as the O's hitters have to face one of the NL's best in RHP Zac Gallen. NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll might be getting most of the headlines for Arizona, but it's been the 27-year-old Gallen who's been the anchor of this club all season. In 28 starts covering just over 173 innings, Gallen is 14-6 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with 182 strikeouts. But here's the most impressive stat: In his 13 starts covering just over 85 innings here at Chase Field this season, Gallen is an incredible 11-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. This will be his first career appearance against the Orioles. Take the Diamondbacks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-03-23 | Twins v. Rangers -133 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Minnesota. Last night, the Twins won in extra innings vs. Texas, and will look to complete a 3-game sweep this afternoon. Minnesota will send Kenta Maeda to the mound today, and he's not been pitching well, as he has given up 12 earned runs in his last three starts, covering 13 innings (8.31 ERA, 1.69 WHIP). For the season, Maeda's ERA is a subpar 4.69, while his mound opponent today (Jon Gray) has a 3.60 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The Twins are a wallet-busting 29-56 (minus 22.2 net games) as an underdog of +150 (or less), including 21-40 on the road. And Minny is also 1-8 behind Maeda this season in his daytime starts. And Maeda's teams are a dreadful 21-32 (minus 23.9 net games) in his career in the afternoon. Take the Rangers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-03-23 | Phillies -110 v. Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Milwaukee Brewers. When the Phillies' Ranger Suarez went 8-5 with a 1.36 ERA as a swing-man (part-time starter/part-time reliever) two seasons ago, it appeared that the 25-year-old might be the future of southpaw starting pitching for the team. But a regression last season and again in 2023 cast some doubt on Suarez, and his continued health issues haven't helped his situation. But last season Suarez came on strong in the month of August and he did the same thing last month with a 2.45 ERA in three starts covering 18 1/3 innings. If his injury woes are behind him, Suarez could finish the season strong for the Phillies. He'll get his 18th start of the season this afternoon against the Brewers. And Suarez has a 2.31 career ERA in two starts vs. Milwaukee. The Phillies are also 2-0 in those games, including a seven inning Suarez outing last June right here at American Family Field, in which he allowed two runs on six hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Take the Phillies. As always good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-02-23 | Twins v. Rangers -188 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -188 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Minnesota Twins. If the Rangers end up not making the post-season -- right now they have just a two-game buffer on the final Wild Card spot -- it will be considered one of the biggest collapses we've seen in a while. As recently as August 8, Texas had the second-best record in the AL with a three-game lead over the Astros and a full 6 1/2 games over the now first-place Mariners. The good news is that with September having just started, the Rangers have a full month to right the ship. They'll try to break their latest losing streak of two games tonight in the second game of this series against the Twins. Jordan Montgomery will get his sixth start since being traded to Texas from St. Louis and the veteran southpaw will have a chance to avenge his last start -- a sub-par effort against this Minnesota club last Sunday. Since coming to Arlington, Montgomery is 2-1 with an excellent 2.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP with 30 strikeouts and only five walks in 31 1/3 innings. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-02-23 | UMass v. Auburn -35 | Top | 14-59 | Win | 100 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Auburn Tigers minus the points over the Massachusetts Minutemen. Last week, we had our College Football Game of the Month on UMass +7 over New Mexico State, and were rewarded with a 41-30 upset win by Don Brown's troops. UMass has now matched its win total for each of the last three full seasons, as it went 1-11 in each of 2019, 2021 and 2022 (it went 0-4 in the COVID-shortened 2020 season). But even though victorious, the Minutemen were out-yarded by the Aggies, 458-389. The difference in the game, of course, was turnovers. UMass held onto the ball, while New Mexico State coughed it up 3 times. It would be folly to expect that kind of turnover luck to continue here, at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Moreover, since 2019, the Minutemen have been miserable against the spread, including 0-15 SU and 3-12 ATS when priced from +23 to +38 points. Meanwhile, Auburn has gone 26-19 ATS in that point spread range. Off that big upset win, we'll fade UMass, as it falls into a 'letdown' system of mine which has cashed 69.6% since 1988. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-01-23 | Red Sox -172 v. Royals | Top | 2-13 | Loss | -172 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Kansas City Royals. The Red Sox are not necessarily happy to get out of Boston, but they are probably thrilled that they don't have to see the Astros in the visiting dugout anymore this week. Houston came into Fenway and proceeded to dismantle the Sox, taking three games by a combined score of 26-11. But Boston gets a major reward as it travels to Kansas City after an off-day to play the 41-94 Royals -- one of only two teams (Oakland, the other) to have already been eliminated from the post-season. The Sox will open with southpaw James Paxton tonight. The 34-year-old missed all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery and has really come back strong this season. In 18 starts, Paxton is 7-4 with a 3.99 ERA with 101 strikeouts in just under 95 innings. Paxton should be looking forward to his second start of the season against KC. On August 10 he threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings vs. the Royals in a 2-0 Red Sox victory for his seventh -- and most recent -- win of the season. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-31-23 | Braves -129 v. Dodgers | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 2 best teams in baseball will kick off a big 4-game series tonight at Chavez Ravine. Spencer Strider will get the start for Atlanta while Lance Lynn will make his 6th start for Los Angeles after being acquired last month from the White Sox. Strider is having a brilliant season for the Braves. He leads all of MLB with 236 strikeouts, and ranks 3rd among starters in batting average against (.204), and 6th in WHIP (1.06). Overall, Strider's W/L record is 15-4, and the Braves have won 21 of his 26 starts. Understandably, Strider's favored on the road tonight. But it's also the least amount he's been favored by all season. Strider's in the best form of his career, as he has a 0.43 ERA and 0.61 WHIP over his last three starts. Atlanta is 168-79 (+34.7 net games) as a favorite, and also 102-51 (+24 net games) their last 153 as a road favorite. Take the Braves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-30-23 | A's v. Mariners -267 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. On Monday, the Oakland A's became the first team to be officially eliminated from the MLB post-season when they lost to this Mariners team, 7-0. So what did they do to celebrate their demise on Tuesday? Just a win against that same Seattle club which just happens to be the hottest team in baseball recently. Obviously the M's were hoping for a series sweep against the worst team in the League, but now they are just hoping to win the series with a victory this afternoon so they can keep pace with the Rangers and Astros in what has become the tightest race in the Majors. They'll look to bounce back from last night's 3-1 loss, in which they got only 4 hits. Seattle has won 12 of its last 14, and is 8-1 vs. Oakland this season. Even better, it's a solid 39-26 (+14.7 net games) after getting less than 5 hits, 48-31 (+21.7 net games) after scoring less than 3 runs, and 97-74 (+22.4 net games) in daytime affairs. In contrast, Oakland is an anemic 9-44 (minus 28.6 net games) in the afternoon. Regardless of whether the Mariners hand the ball this afternoon to Bryce Miller or George Kirby (who was under the weather yesterday), we'll take Seattle in an action play. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-29-23 | Brewers v. Cubs -125 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. If you were to look up the phrase "breakout" in the dictionary, you just might see Justin Steele's picture. The 28-year-old Cubs LH starter had two previous seasons to show what he could do at the Major League level and he responded with numbers that were nothing more than average in both 2021 and 2022. Last season, Steele became a full time starter and although he got 24 turns out of the rotation, all he could put up by the end of the season was a 4-4 record with a 3.18 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. In short, there was nothing there that would indicate he might be one of the best starters in the game in 2023. But after 24 starts this season, that's exactly what the Cubs have on their hands as Steele is 14-3 with a 2.80 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and much-improved 4.43 K:BB ratio. One more start will be a career high for Steele, who hopes to still be starting games come playoff time in October. But tonight he'll be called upon to shut down the red hot Brewers who have won nine straight coming in. Chicago's won 11 of his last 12 starts. Take the Cubs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-29-23 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. It seems to be all-or-nothing for the Astros right now. In their last three games, the 'Stros have scored 13, 17, and nine runs and not surprisingly they won all three of those games rather easily. But in the three games before that, Houston only managed to score a total of seven runs while losing all three of those contests. We're banking on a return to that type of offensive output tonight as the 'Stros send out RHP J.P. France while the Sox counter with RHP Brayan Bello at Fenway Park. For Bello's part, the 24-year-old has allowed just a single run in three of his last four starts lowering his season ERA to 3.56 in 22 starts covering 126 1/3 innings. France blew up in his last start, but before that, the 28-year-old had been very efficient, posting a 5-1 record with a 1.69 ERA in his six games -- five starts -- between July 20 and August 18. The under is 9-5 in Bello's last 14 starts going back to June 5. Take the 'under'. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-28-23 | Rangers -144 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the New York Mets. On Sunday, the Mets downed the Anaheim Angels, 3-2, while Texas fell in 13 innings, 7-6, to the Minnesota Twins. Today, New York is a home underdog against the 73-57 Rangers, and we'll go against the Mets, as they're a dreadful 48-99 (minus 39.4 net games) as an underdog, including 11-36 (minus 22.6 net games) this season, and 1-8 as a dog with Tylor Megill on the mound. Interleague play also hasn't been kind to New York, as it's 33-44 (minus 23.6 net games) vs. the American League. Veteran RHP Jon Gray will toe the rubber for Texas, and his teams have gone 18-12 (+7.1 net games) in interleague play. Gray also has a solid 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last 3 starts. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-28-23 | Nationals v. Blue Jays -238 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:07 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Washington Nationals. With their chances of catching the first place O's fading quickly, the Blue Jays -- 11 games over .500 -- have to start focusing on the Astros and Rangers. Those two teams currently hold down the final two AL Wild Card spots and Toronto needs to take advantage of series against weak opponents like the two coming up this week against the Nationals and Rockies. Veteran RHP Kevin Gausman will start tonight for Toronto in the first game of this series against Washington at home. The Nats are a team which Gausman is familiar with from his time in the NL, particularly with the Braves. He's lost his last two starts but those were against his nemesis Baltimore, and before that, Philadelphia. Tonight, he'll face off against a Nationals' lineup, which is a significant downgrade from those two clubs. In 25 starts covering just over 150 innings, Gausman is 9-8 with a 3.23 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and he leads all MLB players with 195 strikeouts. Barring something unusual, Gausman will log over 200 K's for the third straight season. Take the Jays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-27-23 | Texans +3.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 35 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the New Orleans Saints. We played against Houston last Saturday and easily cashed Miami, which blew out the Texans, 28-3. Meanwhile, the Saints went into Los Angeles, and downed the Chargers, 22-17, as a 3-point road favorite. New Orleans is a horrible 17-32-1 ATS as a home favorite in the preseason when laying more than 2 points, while Houston is 14-3 ATS as a road underdog in the preseason when getting more than 2 points. That bodes well for the Texans here. As does the fact that teams off blowout losses by more than 20 points have covered 60.4% in the preseason when playing away from home. Grab the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-26-23 | UMass +7.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 41-30 | Win | 100 | 101 h 34 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Massachusetts Minutemen + the points over New Mexico State. After coaching UMass from 2004 to 2008 (the best 5-year period in UMass' football history), Don Brown returned to Amherst last season to man the sidelines again. Last season, UMass struggled to a 1-11 record, which was the 3rd straight full season it went 1-11. This year, UMass will look to improve on that record, and it will open the 2023 season against a team which it lost to each of the past two years. The Aggies won, 44-27, in 2021, as a 7 point home favorite. And then, last season, they went into Amherst, and down the Minutemen, 23-13, in a PK'em game. We'll play on the double-revenge-minded Minutemen, as the Aggies are a poor 3-17 ATS at home when playing an opponent it defeated the previous season, including 0-7 ATS as a home favorite of less than 8 points. And they're 4-11 ATS vs. teams they defeated each of the two previous seasons, including 1-7 ATS at home. Grab the points with UMass. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-26-23 | Browns -3.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Kansas City Chiefs. Last week, the Browns tied the Philadelphia Eagles, 18-18, while KC blew out Arizona, 38-10. But off that 28-point blowout win, we'll fade Andy Reid's men this afternoon. The Chiefs have been installed as a home underdog. Unfortunately, since 1983, home dogs of more than 3 points have covered just 27 percent in the preseason off a win by more than 8 points. That bodes well for the Browns. As does the fact that the Chiefs are a wallet-crushing 20-49-1 ATS in the preseason when not favored by 2 (or more) points, including 4-24 ATS vs. foes off a win/tie in their previous game. Lay the points with Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-25-23 | Chargers v. 49ers UNDER 38 | Top | 23-12 | Win | 100 | 42 h 41 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Los Angeles Chargers/San Francisco 49ers game. The 49ers have played 14 of 24 home preseason games UNDER the total. And they've also gone UNDER 6-2 in Week 3 of the preseason, while the Chargers have gone UNDER 7-2-1 in Week 3. These two teams have matched up twice in the past two years (one regular season, one preseason), and each game went under the total (by an average of 8.25 ppg). I look for another low-scoring game between these clubs, as the UNDER falls into 66.6% and 72.7% preseason totals systems of mine. | |||||||
08-24-23 | Blue Jays +100 v. Orioles | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. The Jays will hand the ball to veteran Jose Berrios this season. This will be his 14th career start vs. Baltimore, and all he's done is go 10-0 with a 2.66 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. And his teams have gone 12-0 in his 12 starts vs. Baltimore since 2017, including a 3-1 win here at Camden Yards in June. Berrios was brilliant in that victory, as he held the Birds' offense to 0 runs over 7 2/3 innings. Toronto is a solid 43-30 (+11.8 net games) on the road vs. winning teams. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-24-23 | Red Sox v. Astros -123 | Top | 17-1 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Boston Red Sox. J.P. France may not have the star power or name recognition of some other AL Freshmen like Gunnar Henderson or Josh Jung, but he should definitely be in the conversation when it comes to handing out the hardware for Rookie of the Year. Heading into the season, it was thought that another Houston rookie starter, Hunter Brown, would be the one getting all the attention at this point, but instead it's been the RH France who, at the ripe age of 28, has been turning heads on this team in his first MLB season. In 18 games -- 17 starts -- covering 108 innings, France has logged a 9-4 record with a 2.75 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He'll get a chance to improve on those numbers and reach double-digit wins this afternoon with his first career start vs. the Red Sox. Even more impressive than his overall numbers is the fact that in his last nine games -- eight starts -- going back to June 29, France is 7-1 with a 1.98 ERA and the Astros are 8-1 in those games. Finally, the 'Stros are 76-38 off a loss. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-23-23 | Blue Jays -120 v. Orioles | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. We played on the Blue Jays as an underdog last night, and were rewarded with a 6-3 victory. Tonight, the Jays are a road favorite, and we'll come right back with them. Kevin Gausman will toe the rubber for Toronto, and his teams have gone 16-4 on the road vs. division rivals, and 17-6 on the road vs. winning foes with him on the mound. Gausman will match-up against Dean Kremer for the Orioles. Toronto is a solid 127-102 (+11.35 net games) on the road, and 33-23 (+9.15 net games) when its odds are priced between +125 and -125. Take the Blue Jays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-22-23 | Blue Jays +105 v. Orioles | Top | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Baltimore Orioles. The Blue Jays will seek to gain ground on the division-leading Orioles, and also make up ground in the Wild Card race in this 3-game series. Toronto has been installed as an underdog, and it's excelled as a dog this season, going 20-14 (+8.8 net games), including 6-3 when starter Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound. And in Kikuchi's career, when he's been installed as a road underdog, he's been a profitable 22-25 (+6.5 net games). Grayson Rodriguez will get the ball for Baltimore tonight, and he faced off against Kikuchi 20 days ago. The Orioles' rookie surrendered 3 runs over 5 2/3 innings in that game, and was outdueled by Kikuchi (6 IP, 1 ER) in a 4-1 Blue Jays win. I expect more of the same tonight. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
08-21-23 | Rangers -148 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rangers were swept at home by the Milwaukee Brewers over the weekend, and look to bounce back against a red-hot Diamondbacks team, which has won seven of nine. Newly-acquired Jordan Montgomery threw his 4th straight quality start last week vs. the Angels, in a 7-3 Rangers victory. And he's given up just 23 earned runs in his last 14 starts (11 with St. Louis), for a 2.47 ERA. Tonight, he's been installed as a road favorite vs. the D-Backs. The Diamondbacks are a soft 20-49 (minus 19.7 net games) as a home dog priced from +125 to +175, and 6-19 their last 25 vs. winning teams. Meanwhile, Texas is 15-7 this season off back-to-back losses, and 18-11 after scoring less than 3 runs. Take Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie | |||||||
08-20-23 | Mariners v. Astros -168 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -168 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. On Saturday, the Mariners went off and plated double-digit runs in a 10-3 rout of the Astros in Houston thanks to the hottest hitter in the game right now. M's OF Julio Rodriguez broke an MLB record that stood for almost 100 years when he got his 17th hit in his last four games. If the 'Stros can just find a way to slow down the 22-year-old Seattle superstar, they should be able to win this series finale against the Mariners. That chore will fall on the broad shoulders of young Houston RH Hunter Brown. The 24-year-old won his last appearance, but it wasn't as a starter. On August 15, Brown pitched two scoreless innings to secure the victory over the Marlins in South Florida in what was his only appearance thus far out of the bullpen. He'll come back this afternoon to get his 23rd start of the season -- his 10th at home. In seven daytime starts this season, Brown has a 3.32 ERA (vs. 4.57 in 16 games -- 15 starts -- under the lights). Houston's also 75-37 (+27.1 net games) off a loss. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Nick Parsons | $968 |
Jack Jones | $847 |
Scott Rickenbach | $769 |
Ricky Tran | $750 |
Joseph D'Amico | $680 |
Rob Vinciletti | $575 |
Ross Benjamin | $550 |
Dana Lane | $524 |
Rocky Atkinson | $512 |
Dr. Chuck | $508 |