Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-21-24 | Sun v. Aces -5.5 | Top | 74-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points over Connecticut. We played on Becky Hammon's squad two nights ago, and easily got the $$$ in a blowout win over Seattle. That 94-83 win snapped a 5-game ATS losing streak. I think the Aces are still undervalued, and and will come right back with them tonight, at home, vs. Connecticut. The Sun failed to cover the spread in their last game vs. Los Angeles. And Vegas is 32-22 ATS vs. foes off an ATS loss, while Connecticut is 14-31 ATS on the road off an ATS loss when not getting 8+ points vs. a foe off an ATS win. Take Vegas to blow out the Sun. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-20-24 | Rays v. Twins -123 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Tampa Bay Rays. Minny's 6-game win streak ended in extra innings last night, as Tampa prevailed, 3-2. We'll take the Twins to bounce back this afternoon, as Tampa has struggled vs. righties this season, going 23-32 (minus 15.0 net games), compared to 12-7 (plus 3.5 net games) vs. lefties. The Twins are also a solid 103-57 (plus 11.7 net games) as a home favorite, while Tampa is a terrible 47-71 (minus 16.2 net games) as an underdog. Finally, Minnesota has clobbered losing teams this season, going 26-8 (+15.5 net games). Take the Twins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-20-24 | Wings v. Sky -5 | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Chicago Sky minus the points over the Dallas Wings. The injury-ravaged Wings come into this game on an 8-game losing streak. Forward Satou Sabally has yet to play a game, while Forward Natasha Howard has suited up just once -- when these two teams met in the season opener -- a game won by Dallas, 87-79. Now, leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale (24.9 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.5 rpg) is questionable with an Achilles injury. She missed Dallas' last game, a 90-78 defeat at Minnesota. And Forward Maddy Siegrist (who scored 17 vs. Minnesota) broke a finger on her left hand in that loss, and is out indefinitely. None of this bodes well for Dallas this afternoon. Take Chicago minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-19-24 | Storm v. Aces -5.5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points over Seattle. The Aces play this game with revenge from a 78-65 home loss earlier this month. Notwithstanding that upset defeat, the Aces are 6-3 ATS their last nine at home vs. the Storm. And Las Vegas is also 58.2% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss in the prior meeting. Finally, Seattle is a poor 14-26-1 ATS when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset in the prior meeting. Take the Aces minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-19-24 | Royals -170 v. A's | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -170 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Oakland A's. The A's snapped their 9-game losing streak last night, with a 7-5 victory vs. Kansas City. But winning 1 of 10 games doesn't inspire confidence. We'll take Kansas City to bounce back off that loss, as it will hand the ball to Cole Ragans tonight. Ragans has had 10 quality starts of 15 this season. His ERA is 3.24, and his WHIP is 1.15. And over his last 6 outings, his ERA is a spectacular 1.94, and his WHIP is 0.97. Ragans has made 3 career starts vs. the A's, and his teams have won all 3 of those games. Oakland will counter with Luis Medina, who has a 5.87 ERA and 1.49 WHIP this season. The A's have lost 16 of his last 20 starts. And Oakland is also an ugly 30-82 (minus 22.9 net games) vs. AL starters with WHIPs of 1.20 (or less), and 22-59 (minus 22.0 net games) as a home underdog of +125 (or greater). Take KC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-19-24 | Dream +8.5 v. Lynx | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Dream + the points over the Minnesota Lynx. The Dream lost the first meeting this season between these teams, 92-79. We'll take Atlanta in this rematch, as the Dream have cashed 61% on the road when playing with revenge from a home loss. Take Atlanta. | |||||||
06-19-24 | Mystics v. Fever -4 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Fever minus the points over the Washington Mystics. The Mystics come into tonight's game off back to back upset wins over Atlanta and Chicago. But Washington had lost its first 12 games before finally getting into the win column with those 2 upsets. We'll fade the Mystics tonight, as .365 (or worse) teams off back to back upset wins have cashed just 39%. Take Indiana minus the points. | |||||||
06-18-24 | Orioles v. Yankees -140 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox ran crazy all over the Yankees on Sunday night — literally with nine stolen bases — to take the three-game series at Fenway. Now, New York comes back to the Bronx to face the AL East team which is breathing down its neck, in the Orioles. But it also comes home to some very good news, which is that Gerrit Cole will be making his season debut for the Pinstripes on Wednesday. That’s bad news for the rest of the American League as the starting rotation minus Cole has been one of the best — and healthiest — in the Majors throughout the first half. So adding him to the mix almost seems unfair. Tonight it will be Nestor Cortes making his 16th start of the season. The Cuban southpaw has been the most unlucky of the Yankee starters as, despite a 3.59 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, Cortes is just 3-5 in the won-lost column. But more important for tonight is the fact that the 29-year-old has pretty much owned the O's, going 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 10 career games -- eight starts -- against them. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-17-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 65 h 36 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. The Celtics were blown out, 122-84, on Friday by Dallas. And the Mavericks are now down 3-games-to-1 in this NBA Finals. We'll fade Dallas off that win, as the Mavericks are an ugly 31-53-1 ATS as an underdog off an upset win, including 5-19-1 ATS if they covered the spread by 17+ points in their previous game. Even better: NBA teams have cashed 62% since 1990 off a Playoff loss by more than 35 points. And the Celtics are 9-0-1 ATS over the last 20 seasons following a loss by more than 30 points! Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-17-24 | Mavs v. Celtics UNDER 209.5 | Top | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 65 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks to go UNDER the total. These two teams have played all 4 NBA Finals games UNDER the total so far. And they've gone under by 21.5, 12, 8, and 5.5 points. Dallas is now 49-27-1 UNDER its last 77. Additionally, the Celtics are 13-2 UNDER their last 15 NBA Finals games, while Dallas is 11-4-1 UNDER in the NBA Finals. And Boston is 11-1 UNDER in the Playoffs following an upset loss, if the O/U line was 213 or less in the current game. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-17-24 | Wings +9.5 v. Lynx | Top | 78-90 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Wings + the points over the Minnesota Lynx. The Wings have lost seven straight games, and have also failed to cover their last six. Tonight, the Wings are a huge road underdog, and we will happily grab the points, as road underdogs have cashed 60% since 2006 off 3 SU/ATS losses. Even better: the Lynx are a poor 0-8 ATS their last eight (and 4-17-2 ATS their last 23) off a straight-up win when laying 8.5 (or more) points. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-17-24 | Tigers v. Braves -190 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Detroit Tigers. Braves starter Max Fried got pounded pretty good in his last start and Atlanta was shut out 4-0 by the Orioles in Baltimore. But there are no Gunnar Hendersons, Adley Rutschmans or Jordan Westburgs in tonight’s Tigers lineup that the 30-year-old southpaw will be facing in his 14th start of the season. In fact you could say that Detroit’s inability to hit the ball consistently has been a major disappointment so far. Despite his last outing, Fried is still one of the best lefthanders in the game with a 6-3 record and 3.20 ERA in 13 starts covering just under 69 innings. And Fried is an inter-league monster with a 2.35 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 18 starts vs. teams from the American League with 107 strikeouts in 111 innings. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMoride. | |||||||
06-16-24 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton +1.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats + the points over Saskatchewan. Last week, Hamilton lost, 32-24, at Calgary to open its season, while the Roughriders upset the Elks, 29-21, on the road. We'll fade Saskatchewan this evening, as teams that open the season with back to back road games have not done well in Week 2 following a road win in Week 1 (including 17% ATS off an upset win). And CFL underdogs off a road loss in Week 1 have cashed 64.2% vs. foes off a SU win to open their season. Grab the points with Hamilton. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-16-24 | Royals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the Kansas City Royals. In Tyler Glasnow's career, he's been favored 15 times at home between -175 and -250. And his teams have gone 15-0 in those games. Glasnow's also been perfect against the Royals in his career, with a 1-0 record in four starts, and a 1.88 ERA. And his teams won all four of those games. The Dodgers have excelled in interleague games, going 53-27 (+9.2 net games), while the Royals have gone 28-49 (minus 10.3 net game) vs. the National League. We'll lay the 1.5 runs with the Dodgers on Sunday afternoon. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-16-24 | Sparks v. Dream -4.5 | Top | 74-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Dream minus the points over the Los Angeles Sparks. We played on the Sparks as a double-digit road underdog, on Friday, and got the $$$ when they lost by just 5 at Minnesota. But we will fade the Sparks today, as they're just 9-20 ATS their last 29 vs. the Dream. Additionally, Atlanta checks in off back to back upset losses to the Fever and Mystics. However, Atlanta has cashed 57% off back to back upset losses. Take the Dream. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-16-24 | Sky v. Fever -1.5 | Top | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
At 12 Noon, our selection is on the Indiana Fever minus the points over Chicago. Caitlin Clark's Fever have only won four games this season (against 10 losses). But one of the wins was against this Chicago team. And Indiana is now 5-1-2 ATS its last eight vs. the Sky. Indiana comes into this game off a rare win, as it upset Atlanta, 91-84, on Thursday. We'll lay the points with the Fever, as sub-.333 teams have cashed 59% at home off an upset win. Take Indiana. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-15-24 | Reds v. Brewers -120 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. The Brewers fell behind early and then the Reds stopped a late comeback from them on Friday and won 6-5 in the first game of this three-game series between the NL Central rivals. Milwaukee will counter this afternoon with RH swing man Bryse Wilson. The 26-year-old has made 16 appearances this season with exactly half of those being starts. His overall record is 3-3 with a 4.19 ERA in 58 innings, and his ERA as a starter is slightly better at 4.14. Although Wilson hasn't had a start against the Reds this season, in two relief appearances against them he is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four innings with three strikeouts and no walks. For his career, Wilson is 2-2 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 29 strikeouts and only five walks in 44 innings vs. Cincy. Despite the loss on Friday, the Brewers are 16-8 in their last 24 games against division opponents and they're also 20-11 in their last 31 day games. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-15-24 | Liberty v. Aces -2 | Top | 90-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 3 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points over New York. Becky Hammon's crew snapped its 3-game losing streak with a 103-99 win at Phoenix. But it failed to cover the spread for the 4th straight time. We'll lay the points in this rematch of last year's WNBA Championship series, as rested, winning teams, off 4+ ATS losses, have covered 66% as single-digit home favorites. Additionally, the Aces are a solid 24-11 ATS their last 35 vs. the Liberty, including 14-4 ATS at home. Take Las Vegas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-14-24 | Rangers v. Mariners -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Texas Rangers. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the defending champions, and he's 1-7 in 12 starts this season (Texas is 2-10 in those games). Heaney will match up against Luis Castillo. Castillo's home ERA this season is a solid 2.95, with a 1.12 WHIP. And Seattle has won his last four home starts in a row. Both pitchers will be working on an extra day of rest. But that's not necessarily a good thing for Heaney, as the Rangers have lost his last 7 starts when he pitched with an extra day or two of rest. Also not very good are the Rangers' bullpen statistics on the road (6.73 ERA; 1.69 WHIP), especially compared to its very good numbers at home (2.79 ERA; 1.04 WHIP). And, given Heaney's average innings pitched is 4.8 on the road, Seattle should see a lot of the Rangers' bullpen tonight. Finally, the Mariners are 24-11 (+10.0 net games) at home this season (compared to 16-20, minus 4.8 net games, on the road). Take the Mariners. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-14-24 | Montreal v. Edmonton Elks +5.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 44 m | Show |
At 9 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Edmonton Elks + the points over the Montreal Alouettes. Edmonton looked very good through the first three quarters last week, but collapsed in the 4th quarter in a 29-21 loss to Saskatchewan. Key to the Elks' defeat were a fumble and interception by QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson in the game's final three minutes. Still, MBT threw for 336 yards and two touchdowns, and I expect him to have another strong game vs. Montreal. Last season, the Alouettes won the Grey Cup, with a 28-24 win over Winnipeg. And the Alouettes got this season off to a great start last week with a 27-12 upset win over the Blue Bombers, in a rematch of the title game. We'll fade Montreal as a road favorite at Edmonton, as defending Grey Cup champions have gone just 31-57-4 ATS when favored against non-division foes. And Montreal is also a poor 0-13 ATS as a favorite of -3 (or more) points off an upset win. Take Edmonton + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-14-24 | Sparks +14 v. Lynx | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Sparks + the points over the Minnesota Lynx. In its last game, Minnesota upset Las Vegas, 100-86. Now, it's a huge, double-digit favorite vs. the Sparks. We'll fade Minnesota, it's covered just 8 of its last 24 as a double-digit favorite. Moreover, WNBA favorites of more than 10 points, off an upset win, have covered just 18% since 2006 vs. revenge-minded foes. With the Sparks, indeed, playing with revenge from an 86-62 loss to the Lynx earlier this season, we'll grab the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-13-24 | Aces -6.5 v. Mercury | Top | 103-99 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points over the Phoenix Mercury. The defending champion Aces are now 5-5 on the young season after dropping their 3rd game in a row, 100-86, to Minnesota. We'll take Las Vegas to bounce back at Phoenix, as the Aces are 7-0 ATS their last seven off 3 SU/ATS losses. Even better: Las Vegas plays this game with revenge from a double-digit home loss to the Mercury last month. Finally, the Aces fall into a 128-75 ATS system of mine which plays on certain revenge-minded teams. Take Las Vegas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-13-24 | Panthers v. Oilers -130 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 41 h 7 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Florida Panthers. After another sub-par night in Florida, the Oilers are down 2-0 in the Stanley Cup Finals as the two teams travel north to Alberta for Game 3. Edmonton may be down, but it's far from out of this series. The Oilers had a 1-0 lead in Game 2 and, despite the loss they woke up big in the third period, and out-shot the Panthers 12-7 in that stanza. So what are the keys for Game 3? First of all, the Oilers need to resist taking costly penalties as Florida had 6 power play opportunities on Monday, including a five-minute major by virtue of a knee-to-knee collision courtesy of Warren Foegele that took out Eetu Luostarinen about nine minutes into the game. The Oilers' offense needs to play better than it did in Games 1 and 2, and returning home tonight with a boost from the rowdy home fans might be just what they need to put multiple tallies on Florida goalie Sergei Bobrovsky, who's been brilliant so far. The Oilers are 6-1 in their last seven games following two or more consecutive road losses, 11-5 when trailing in a playoff series, and 40-16 when playing with revenge from a same-season loss. Take Edmonton. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-13-24 | Braves +108 v. Orioles | Top | 6-3 | Win | 108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Baltimore Orioles. Over the weekend, the Orioles swept a four-game series in Tampa for the first time in their history. They've followed up that success with two straight wins at home over a very good Atlanta Braves team, so they are assured of another series win as the third game is set to go this afternoon at the Yards. It's a good thing too, because this weekend they will welcome the best team in the National League (the Phillies). And then, after that series, they will travel to the Bronx to play three games against the best American League team -- the Yankees. But amid all this success in Baltimore are also some challenges as three of the O's starters have gone on the IL, with two of them -- John Means and Tyler Wells -- being lost for the season. So LHP Cole Irvin will once again fill in today and he'll be going against another surprising success story this season in RHP Reynaldo Lopez. Irvin has not had any success in his career starts vs. Atlanta, as his ERA in those games is 9.90. In contrast, Lopez's career ERA in his starts vs. Baltimore is 3.72. And in 11 starts this season, covering 63 1/3 innings, Lopez is 3-2 with a 1.85 ERA, with the Braves going 7-4 in those games. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-12-24 | Celtics v. Mavs -135 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -135 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks on the moneyline over the Boston Celtics. The Celts did as expected, and won Games 1 + 2 to take a 2-0 series lead in this NBA Finals. Dallas now has its proverbial back against the wall in this Game 3 since, if it loses, it will surely be its death knell, as no team (in 156 series) has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA history. We'll take Dallas to win this game on the moneyline, as #1 seeded teams (like Boston) have gone just 25-45 straight-up in Game 3s since 1990, at the quarterfinal round forward, if they were up 2-games-to-0. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-11-24 | Rangers v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 2-15 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Texas Rangers. The big weekend series between the Dodgers and Yankees in the Bronx lived up to the hype for the most part with the Dodgers winning the first two games before the Yankees came back on Sunday night to take a 6-4 decision without the services of star OF Juan Soto (arm). Now the Dodgers go from one AL powerhouse to another as the defending World Series Champion Rangers come to Los Angeles for a three-game set. LHP James Paxton will go to the hill for his 12th start of the season. The 35-year-old southpaw will look to redeem himself after one of the worst starts of his career last time out against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. In that one, Paxton lasted just 1 2/3 innings, allowing seven runs (six earned) on six hits. He's back home tonight where he's done by far his best work this season, going 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA in four starts covering 22 2/3 innings (vs. 3-1 and 5.23 in seven road starts). The Dodgers are 6-2 in the last eight meetings with the Rangers. Take L.A. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-11-24 | Lynx v. Aces -6 | Top | 100-86 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Aces minus the points over the Minnesota Lynx. The two-time defending champion Aces have gotten off to a relatively slow start this season. Las Vegas is 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS. And Las Vegas has lost its last two games as big favorites vs. Seattle and Los Angeles. Even worse: in that defeat to the Sparks, Becky Hammon became the first coach to be ejected from a game, after she received two technicals. Tonight, the Aces will welcome the Lynx to Michelob ULTRA Arena. And Hammon's women have won the last five games SU/ATS vs. the Lynx, including an 80-66 blowout win in Minneapolis on May 29. Las Vegas is a terrific 28-14 ATS off back to back SU/ATS losses when not getting 4+ points. Take the Aces. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-10-24 | Oilers +122 v. Panthers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Florida Panthers. The Oilers lost the first game of this series here in south Florida, as the Panthers shut out Edmonton, 3-0. Tonight, Florida will look to take a commanding 2-0 lead before the series heads north of the border. The Oilers have gone 1-1 in the first two games of all three of their series leading to this Stanley Cup Finals so they'll look to do the same in this series with a road victory tonight. In 10 road games this post-season -- including Saturday night's loss here -- the Oilers are a solid 6-4. But they'll need to get the offense going however if they're going to be successful against this very good Florida club. In the five playoff games in which Connor McDavid has not had at least one point, the Oilers are 1-4 and in the ones in which he has, they are 11-3. The Oilers are 4-0 in their last four games when trailing in a playoff series, and 6-3 their last nine off a shutout loss. Meanwhile, Florida is 23-45 (minus 43.8 net games) off a home shutout win. Take Edmonton. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-10-24 | Blue Jays v. Brewers -107 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Toronto Blue Jays. There's no question the Brewers' starting rotation is a bit of a mess right now. In fact, Milwaukee recently did something you don't see very often -- if at all -- when it used the same starter -- an opener named Jared Koenig -- in back-to-back games on June 3 and 4 against the Phillies. That didn't work too well (the Brewers lost both games). Colin Rea has been used twice as the long reliever when the Brewers have used an opener this season but now he is back in the rotation and will get his 11th start tonight at home against the Jays. The 33-year-old has been bright spot as a starter this season so it seems a bit odd that Milwaukee would want to use him in long relief. In his 10 starts, Rea is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and he has a 3.07 ERA at home this season (vs. 3.93 on the road). This will be the first meeting of these two teams this season. The Brewers are 12-3 in Rea's last 15 nighttime starts and they're 6-0 in his last six when he's had at least seven days between starts. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-09-24 | Mavs +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 64 h 31 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks + the points over the Boston Celtics. We played on the Celtics and Under in Game 1, and were rewarded with a 107-89 blowout win by Boston. But off that 18-point loss, we'll switch to the underdog Mavericks in Game 2. Indeed, Dallas has yet to lose back-to-back games in these Playoffs, going 5-0 SU/ATS off a loss. And it's also a reliable 124-83 ATS as a road underdog of more than 6 points vs. winning opposition. Meanwhile, .672 (or better) teams (like Boston) have gone 1-11 ATS in Game 2 of NBA Playoff series when favored by more than 6 points following a double-digit win in Game 1. Take the Mavericks + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-08-24 | Dodgers v. Yankees -118 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -118 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles won Game 1, 2-1, in 11 innings on Friday night. That loss snapped New York's eight-game win streak, but the Yankees still have the most wins (45) in baseball. We'll take New York to bounce back on Saturday night. Southpaw Nestor Cortes will get the start for the Yankees, and he's been exceptional at home this season with a 3-1 record and 1.12 ERA (compared to 0-3, 6.17 ERA on the road). And that dovetails with his results over the last 3 seasons, as the Yankees have gone 22-9 at home with Cortes, but have gone 12-13 in his 25 road starts. New York is a solid 344-233 (+30.9 net games) following a game where they scored 1 run or less. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-07-24 | Red Sox v. White Sox -107 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago White Sox over the Boston Red Sox. The Southsiders have lost 14 straight games, and will turn to their best pitcher -- Garrett Crochet -- to stop that streak tonight. Crochet has a 3.49 ERA (2.50 at home), with a superb 0.93 WHIP. And he's given up 2 runs or less in each of his last seven starts, with a 1.35 ERA in those 7 outings (The White Sox are 4-3 in those games). Boston has gone just 6-11 (-6.8 net games) this season vs. lefty starters (compared to 26-20 (+6.8 net games) vs. righties). And the White Sox are 57-38 (+28.1 net games) after allowing more than 6 runs in three straight games. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-06-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -6 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 88 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over the Dallas Mavericks. My NBA preseason futures pick was on the Celtics (at 4-1 odds), and they've done nothing to dissuade me from thinking they're going to win the Larry O'Brien Trophy. I like them to get off to a great start in this Game 1. Boston has absolutely dominated the Mavericks the last 2 seasons. This year, Boston won by 28 points at home, and by 9 points on the road. And last season, the Celts won by 13 at home, and 29 on the road. Combined, then, Boston's average margin of victory was 19.75 ppg, and it was 4-0 ATS. That doesn't bode well for Dallas, as underdogs that were swept 2-games-to-none in the season series have gone 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS in Game 1 of the NBA finals, including 0-5 ATS when priced from +5.5 to +10 points. And Dallas is also 3-16 SU and 6-13 ATS in Game 1 of a series when installed as an underdog vs. .666 (or better) opponents. Finally, teams (like Boston) with average scoring margins greater than 8.75 ppg (Boston's is +11.15) have cashed 64% in Game 1 of an NBA series when not laying 12+ points. Take the Celtics minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-06-24 | Mavs v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 89-107 | Win | 100 | 88 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks to go UNDER the total in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Mavericks have now gone UNDER the total 21-4-1 their last 26 games when the O/U line was between 210 and 222 points. And they've also gone 45-25 UNDER as an underdog (or PK) off a SU win in their previous game. We'll look for those two trends to hold for this Game 1, especially given that NBA Finals Game 1s have gone 12-4-1 UNDER since 1991 when the game was priced from -6 to -9.5 points. Take the Under in the Mavs/Celts Game 1. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-06-24 | Mariners -140 v. A's | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland A's. Bryan Woo is off to a great start this season. In 5 starts, he has a 1.30 ERA and a microscopic 0.57 WHIP. And Seattle is a perfect 5-0 in those starts. This will be Woo's second game against Oakland in 2024, and he shut out the A's over 4 1/3 innings back on May 10 (Seattle won, 8-1). In Woo's career, he's made 3 starts vs. the A's, and did not give up a run over the 15 1/3 innings he pitched. Seattle won all three of those games (by a combined score of 20-1). The A's are a poor 7-15 (minus 6.8 net games) as a home underdog this season (and 54-110 (minus 25.3 net games) the past 3 seasons, while Seattle is 52-28 (+9.6 net games) as a road favorite. Take Seattle. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-04-24 | Royals v. Guardians -110 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selections is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. Who would've thought that a June series between the Guardians and the Royals would be featuring two teams that are on top in the division -- with both being more than 10 games over the .500 mark? Both of these teams have been led by their pitching and two of their best go the hill today in Seth Lugo of the Royals and Triston McKenzie of the Guardians. McKenzie got some major run support his last time out as Cleveland beat Colorado 13-7 last Tuesday. That marked the Guardians' seventh victory in the last eight starts for McKenzie, a tall, lanky RH who's had injury problems in the past, but who appears to be 100% now and flourishing with this young lineup behind him. In 11 career regular season games vs. the Royals -- nine starts -- McKenzie is 4-2 with a sparkling 2.70 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in 56 2/3 innings. Take Cleveland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-03-24 | Brewers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
At 6:40 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies minus 1.5 runs over the Milwaukee Brewers. Zack Wheeler will toe the rubber for the Phils this evening, and his career ERA in 9 starts vs. Milwaukee is a stellar 2.68, with a WHIP of 1.07. In contrast, Bryse Wilson's career numbers vs. the Phillies are ugly (7.84 ERA in 3 starts with a 2.03 WHIP). Philly lost a rare game at home last night to St. Louis in extra innings, but it is still 24-9 (+11.4 net games) at Citizens Bank Ballpark this year. And Wheeler's home ERA this season is 1.77 with a 0.83 WHIP. Lay the 1.5 runs with Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-02-24 | Stars v. Oilers -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Dallas Stars. Like the Florida Panthers over in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Oilers took Game 5 on the road and now come back home for a Game 6 in which they have a chance to clinch a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals. It would be Edmonton's eighth appearance in the Finals (they've won five Cups) and its first since 2006. They come into this all-important opportunity at home having just played their most complete game of the post-season, beating the Stars 3-1 in Dallas while out-shooting them as well. And much-maligned Edmonton goalie Stuart Skinner was outstanding for the second game in a row, perhaps quieting his critics -- of which there have been quite a few lately. The Oilers will have their crazed fans north of the border making it very difficult for Dallas to get back into this series tonight. The Oilers are 45-10 in their last 55 games after allowing one goal or less in their previous while the Stars are 11-14 this season when revenging a same season loss vs. an opponent. Take Edmonton. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
06-02-24 | Padres v. Royals -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the San Diego Padres. After winning games on Friday and Saturday, the Padres go for the series sweep in Kansas City this afternoon. Cole Ragans was the Texas Rangers first round draft pick in 2016 and spent 1 1/2 seasons with the Big League club in a swing man sort of role. But when Ragans was traded to the Royals as part of the deal that sent reliever Aroldis Chapman to Texas, it was clear that his new team wanted him as a starter. After arriving in KC last August, the 26-year-old LHP put up impressive numbers as a full-time member of the rotation, going 5-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts covering 71 2/3 innings with 89 strikeouts. Ragans is out to show that the last half of 2023 was no fluke as he's following up that strong second half with an equally solid first half of 2024, including his first career complete game. He'll go for his fifth win of the season today in his first career start vs. San Diego. In 13 inter-league games (six starts) Ragans is 3-1 with a 3.40 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 45 innings. Take the Royals. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-01-24 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over Colorado. The Dodgers are 5.5 games ahead of the Padres in the race for the NL West division crown, while the Rockies are in last place, 13.5 games behind L.A. For the season, the Dodgers rank #4 in run differential, as they've outscored their foes by 79 runs this season. That bodes well for Los Angeles today, as Colorado is 1-18 on the road vs. foes that have a run differential of at least 1 run per game. And the Rockies are 8-52 as an underdog of +200 (or higher). Even better: the Rockies' Cal Quantrill has been horrible in his career starts vs. Los Angeles, with an 0-3 record, a 9.42 ERA, and 1.95 WHIP. But rather than lay a big price greater than -300, we're going to lay 1.5 runs instead. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
06-01-24 | Rangers v. Panthers -163 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the New York Rangers. The Panthers finally broke through on Thursday and had the kind of victory that they knew they could achieve given they way they had been dominating play. And it was a victory that did not require OT and puts them on the brink of clinching a spot in the Cup Finals tonight at home. Although it was another one-goal game, the Panthers took a 2-1 lead late in the 3rd and then scored an empty net tally before New York got one back with its net still empty. So, Florida does not want to waste this moment and go back to New York for a Game 7 where -- if nothing else -- the rabid Rangers fans will provide an adrenaline rush for the home team. Once again, as they had in Games 3 and 4, the Panthers not only dominated the flow of the game and puck control, but they also easily won the shots-on-goal battle, 37-27. It was the third straight game that they had held the Rangers to under 30 SOG. Florida is 26-9 in its last 35 after allowing two goals or less in two straight games. Take the Panthers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-31-24 | Oilers +114 v. Stars | Top | 3-1 | Win | 114 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Dallas Stars. Easy victories have been hard to come by in both of the Conference Finals so far. That's why when Edmonton rolled to a relatively lopsided 5-2 victory in Game 4 on Wednesday night, it was something for them to take note of. What makes that victory even more impressive is that the Stars took a 2-0 lead in the first period but instead of panicking, the Oilers relied on their offensive stars (McDavid - 3 assists; Draisaitl - 1 goal) to bring them back. They also stuck with Stuart Skinner -- who admittedly had been shaky of late -- and did not replace him after the two Dallas goals. And Skinner rewarded his team's trust, shutting out the Stars over the final 54 minutes of the contest. Now the key for the Oilers is to take the formula from those last 54 minutes and bring it to a hostile arena. The Oilers are 25-13 in their last 38 games after a win by 2+ goals while the Stars are 4-7 in their last 11 revenging a blowout loss by 3+ goals. Take the Oilers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
05-30-24 | Mavs v. Wolves UNDER 210 | Top | 124-103 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, in Game 5 between Dallas and Minnesota, our selection is on the Under. We played on the Under in Game 4, and were rewarded with a 105-100 T-Wolves win, which went under the total. That game snapped a 4-game "Over" streak of the Mavericks. But as I mentioned in my analysis of the previous game, Dallas had gone 45-22-1 Under in its 68 games prior to going Over in four straight. The Under has also gone 24-12-1 the last 37 meetings between these teams at Minnesota. I look for another relatively low-scoring game on Thursday. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-30-24 | Panthers -116 v. Rangers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the New York Rangers. Three games, three overtimes is how this series has gone since its opening contest. And if there's one thing that's apparent after these games -- especially the last two -- it's that Florida is dominating the play on the ice, even if it's not necessarily reflected by the final result on the scoreboard. Indeed, the main reason those last two games even went past 60 minutes is because of a guy named Shesterkin, who has been in goal for the Rangers. And while it has to be a bit frustrating for the Panthers that they're not leading in this series, there is no need to make wholesale changes and the strategy for tonight's Game 5 is simple -- keep doing what they're doing. Over the last two games, Florida has out-shot New York by a whopping 77-46. The Panthers are 23-7 in their last 30 coming off a home victory. Take Florida. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-29-24 | Stars v. Oilers -128 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Dallas Stars. After the Oilers took Game 1 of this Western Conference Finals in Dallas, the Stars have come back strong, winning Games 2 and 3 by a combined 8-4. They put up five here in Edmonton on Monday (although one was an empty net goal) while holding the Oilers to just 22 shots on goal. That kind of shot production won't get it done in this series and Edmonton knows that. Like he did in the Vancouver Series, Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner will have to rebound strong tonight after a sub-par performance in Game 3 (four goals on just 21 shots). After being given a two-game breather in the semifinals, Skinner came back with a .921 SV% and 1.62 GAA across his four starts leading up to Monday. And during the regular season, Skinner was one of the best in the league with a 2.62 GAA and 36 victories. Edmonton is 10-3 in its last 13 games when playing with double-revenge (two straight losses vs. an opponent). Take the Oilers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-29-24 | Red Sox v. Orioles -175 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox beat the O's and Grayson Rodriguez last night to even this series at one game apiece. Baltimore will turn to its newly-acquired ace, RH Corbin Burnes, to try to send the Red Sox home with a series loss. Burnes was acquired by way of a trade with the Brewers in the off-season and so far the former NL Cy Young has been as good as advertised -- if not better. In 11 starts covering just under 66 innings, the 29-year-old is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 66 strikeouts and 17 walks. Burnes has faced the Sox twice before in his career and he is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 12 innings against them coming into tonight. In eight career starts here at his new home ballpark, Burnes is 2-1 with a 1.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 52 strikeouts and 10 walks in just under 48 innings. The Sox will go with RH Kutter Crawford who has been an enigma this season. Despite a 2.89 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, Boston is just 3-8 in Crawford's 11 starts. Take the O's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-28-24 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 210.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Dallas/Minnesota game. The Mavericks have played their last four games over the total. But before this 4-game Over streak, Dallas had gone 45-22-1 Under. And I look for the Mavericks to revert to form, and go Under in Game 4. Indeed, over the last 34 years, NBA teams that had gone under in > 53% of their season's games have gone Under in 64.8% of their playoff games off 4+ Overs. Take the Under tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-28-24 | Rangers v. Panthers -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the New York Rangers. Since a relatively easy 3-0 victory for the Panthers on the road in Game 1, these two have played two barn-burners in Games 2 and 3 -- both needing overtime -- setting up what should be an exciting fourth game tonight in South Florida. Technically it may not be a "must-win" game for the home team, but it's about as close as you can get to one as the Panthers do not want to go back to New York down three-games-to-one. The good news for the Panthers coming out of that last loss is that they came back from a two-goal deficit in the third period to force the OT. And for most of the game they out-played the Rangers, outshooting them 37-23. Playing their fourth game in seven nights, the goalies -- New York's Shesterkin and Florida's Bobrovsky -- could be starting to feel fatigued and that could be an advantage for the Panthers with their "shoot on sight" mentality. Florida is 11-4 in its last 15 games following a one-goal loss, while the Rangers are a poor 9-13 (minus 12.0 net games) this season after scoring more than 4 goals in their previous game. Take the Panthers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-28-24 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the New York Mets. The Dodgers' march to their eighth World Championship hit a bit of a speed bump over the weekend. L.A. went into Cincinnati for what should have been a relatively easy three-game series against the Reds but instead it was Cincy that came away with a sweep. The Dodgers will try to re-group on Tuesday in Queens as they begin a three game series against the 22-30 Mets. Tyler Glasnow will get the start in Game 1. And Glasnow has a 3-0 record, and a 0.90 ERA in three daytime starts this season, including a 10-0 shutout win over these Mets back on April 21. Additionally, Los Angeles is 18-6 following 2 games where they had 0 home runs. Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
05-27-24 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Under in Game 4 between Indiana and Boston. The Pacers were without All Star Tyrese Haliburton on Saturday, but almost upset the Celtics behind 32 points and 9 assists from Andrew Nembhard. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NBA Playoff history (out of 154 series). And given Boston's huge scoring margin differential (+8.54), one can rest assured it's not going to happen here, either. And that daunting 0-for-154 statistic will surely play into the decision-making of Boston and/or Indiana with respect to their decision to give playing time to Haliburton or Kristaps Porzingis. Frankly, I would be surprised if both of them play, and would not be surprised if neither of them play. But, regardless, we're going to take the Under for Game 4. The Pacers came out strong in Game 3 without Haliburton (as teams often do in the first game without a sidelined superstar). Indy racked up 69 points in the first half, and led 69-57 at the break. But the 2nd half was a completely different story, as the Pacers came back down to earth, and only mustered 42. And just 99 points were scored by the 2 teams combined in the 2nd half. I don't expect Nembhard to repeat his performance (which was a career-high). And even if Haliburton plays, he might not be effective coming off a hamstring injury. So, I expect a relatively low-scoring game on Memorial Day. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-27-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7.5 | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Boston. In 1999, Sean Elliott delivered his Memorial Day Miracle shot to defeat the Trail Blazers, and the Pacers certainly need another Memorial Day Miracle if they're going to win this series (or, more precisely, 4 miracles). But even though no team has ever climbed out of a 3-0 series hole and won four games, we don't need Indiana to do that here. Indeed, all we need it to do is cover a large point spread as a home underdog. Certainly, Boston, with its 75-20 record, and 11.24 average margin, is an historically-great team. But it's also a pedestrian 23-21-2 ATS on the road this season. Indiana, meanwhile, is 27-20-1 ATS at home, including 9-3 ATS its last 12, and 9-3-1 ATS as an underdog, and 14-4-1 ATS off a loss. Indiana is also 7-0 ATS at home this season off a home loss (and 103-73-6 ATS since 1997 at home off a home loss). Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-26-24 | Wolves v. Mavs UNDER 209 | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 30 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves to go UNDER the total. The Timberwolves were the #1 defensive team in the league this season, as they had a defensive rating of 108.4. But Minnesota was upset in Games 1 + 2 to start this series. And both games went Over the total. The T-Wolves are going to have to lock down better on defense if they are going to get back into this series, and I look for a lower-scoring game on Sunday. Dating back 30 years, NBA teams have gone 63% UNDER in the post-season off back to back upset losses. And the T-Wolves are also 14-4 UNDER their last 18 off back to back Overs. We'll take Game 3 to go Under the total. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-26-24 | Wolves +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 29 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Dallas. The T-Wolves lost both home games to start this semi-final series, including a 1-point loss in Game 2, and now must win this game, or face elimination on Tuesday. I like the T-Wolves as an underdog, as .625 (or better) NBA teams have covered 73% as road underdogs since 1991 when down 2-games-to-none in a playoff series. Additionally, road teams have gone 25-12 ATS following a 1-point Playoff defeat. Meanwhile, Dallas is a dreadful 11-27-1 ATS when playing a team with double-revenge, and 22-31 ATS off back to back upset wins. Take the Timberwolves. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-25-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7 | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 40 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Boston. The Pacers let Game 1 slip away when they failed to in-bound the ball successfully, up 3 points, with just seconds remaining. They then got blown out, 126-110, in Game 2, and now face a quasi-must-win game on Saturday (given that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-games-to-0 deficit). We'll grab the points with the Pacers, as NBA teams have gone 92-65-5 ATS when down 2-games-to-none, if they lost their previous game by 10+ points. Additionally, the Pacers have gone 33-14-2 ATS in the Playoffs following a double-digit loss. Take Indiana. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-25-24 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 223.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Under in Game 3 between Boston and Indiana. The Celtics blew out the Pacers, 126-110, in Game 2. And that followed a 133-128 win in Game 1. Off those two high-scoring games by Boston, we'll look for Game 3 to be relatively low-scoring. Indeed, NBA teams have gone Under the total in Playoff games 76.1% since 1991 following back-to-back games where they scored 125+ points. Even better: both of these teams have gone Over the total in four straight games heading into Game 3. And NBA Playoff teams on Over streaks of 3+ games have gone Under the total 56% since 1991. Take Game 3 Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-25-24 | Braves -148 v. Pirates | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates started their Memorial Day Weekend off with a bang, jumping all over the Braves' pitching at home last night while shutting out Atlanta's bats through most of the game in an 11-5 beat down. This afternoon, the Braves will send one of their biggest surprises of the season, RHP Reynaldo Lopez, to the mound for his ninth start of the season. Through his first eight outings covering just under 47 innings, the 30-year-old is 2-1 with a sparkling 1.54 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 44 strikeouts and 17 walks. In his three road starts this season, Lopez is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA with a 3.80 K:BB ratio (19:5). The Braves are 5-3 in Lopez's eight starts this season with all three losses being determined by a single run. RHP Mitch Keller will get this start for Pittsburgh and the Bucs are 9-19 in his last 28 as a home underdog of +125 or more. And Pittsburgh has lost all 5 of Keller's career starts vs. Atlanta. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-24-24 | Mavs v. Wolves -5 | Top | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 4 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves minus the points over Dallas. The Mavericks went into Minneapolis on Wednesday, and upset the T-Wolves, 108-105, behind stellar performances by Luka Doncic (33 points 8 assists) and Kyrie Irving (30 points, 5 rebounds). I like the Timberwolves to rebound in Game 2, as they've gone 11-6 ATS this season off an upset loss. Moreover, Minnesota is 19-2 ATS vs. foes it lost to at home in the prior meeting. Even better: #3 seeds have cashed 69.4% since 1991 off a home playoff defeat, if they were favored by 4+ points in the current game. And, finally, sub-.625 teams (like Dallas) have cashed just 1 of their last 18 games in the Conference Finals off an upset win if they were not getting more than 7 points. Take Minnesota minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-24-24 | Mariners -150 v. Nationals | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
At 6:45 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Washington Nationals. You can call George Kirby an ace for sure, but you can't call the 26-year-old RHP THE ace of the Mariners. That's because in addition to Kirby, Seattle also has Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo in its rotation. Kirby was, for the most part, cruising along before his last start in Baltimore. In that game, he met a more potent lineup than what he usually faces. But even though he gave up five runs and took the loss in that start, Kirby still lasted six innings, did not issue a walk, and came away with a season ERA still under four runs. He should find the going easier this evening in DC against the Nationals. In 15 career inter-league starts, Kirby boasts a 3.26 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 89 Ks and only 8 BBs in just under 86 innings. And his only previous start vs the Nats was a gem -- seven innings with one ER and nine Ks with no BBs. Finally, in Kirby's 19 starts as a road favorite, the M's are 13-6. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
05-23-24 | Oilers v. Stars -127 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 40 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Edmonton Oilers. It will be the #1 seed Dallas Stars taking on the Edmonton Oilers -- 2nd place in the Pacific Division -- for the right to go to the 2024 Cup Finals. Game 1 takes place Thursday night in Dallas where the Stars have been solid this season. Although they began their playoffs with two straight losses at American Airlines Arena, the Stars have won three of five here since then. These two just played here on April 3 and that game was all Dallas as the Stars took an easy 5-0 decision. Edmonton's biggest question mark coming into this series is right in its crease as regular #1 goalie Stuart Skinner has been shaky, to say the least. Even in the series-clinching Game 7 against the Canucks on Monday, Skinner allowed two goals on just 17 shots. But for Skinner's defensemen playing superbly on that evening, Vancouver would probably be playing this game tonight. The Oilers are a soft 2-7 in their last nine revenging a blowout loss by more than 3 goals, and they're 6-17 in the first game of a playoff series. Meanwhile, Dallas is 20-8 its last 28 off a division road win. Take the Stars. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-23-24 | Orioles -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:40 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles -1.5 runs over the Chicago White Sox. With their regular season streak of not sustaining a series sweep now snapped, the O's can concentrate on some other things -- like scoring some runs. They travel from St. Louis to Chicago for a four-game set against the 15-34 White Sox. Grayson Rodriguez will get the start in the series opener tonight. The 24-year-old RH is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA in seven starts covering 40 innings. He came off the IL (shoulder) last Saturday and didn't miss a beat, throwing six near-perfect innings with one hit allowed and seven strikeouts in a 4-3 loss to the Mariners. Gray-Rod will be looking to improve his road numbers which pale in comparison to his stats at home this season. If there's an opponent that should be able to kick start the O's offense, it's likely Chicago. In the last six meetings with the Sox, the O's have plated a total of a 43 runs and they've only scored less than six in the last meeting (which they lost, 10-5 last August). Take Baltimore -1.5 runs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
05-22-24 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -125 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers minus 1.5 runs over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers had their 4-game win streak snapped last night when they lost, 7-3, to the Diamondbacks. Tonight, they'll hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow, who has a 6-2 record with a 2.90 ERA and 0.90 WHIP this season. The Dodgers have been installed as a huge favorite, and they're 291-92 (+59.3 net games) as a home favorite, priced at -200 (or higher). Meanwhile, Arizona is an awful 22-93 (minus 44.1 net games) as a road underdog of +200 (or higher). But rather than lay a big price with the Dodgers, we're going to lay 1.5 runs in this game. L.A. has won seven of Glasnow's 10 starts this season and, importantly, six of its seven wins were by 2+ runs. Indeed, of Glasnow's last 21 wins when he started, 20 of the 21 were by 2+ runs, so I have no issue with laying the 1.5 runs tonight. And especially because Glasnow's mound opponent will be Ryne Nelson, who is 2-3 in seven starts with a 7.06 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. And when Nelson has started, and the Diamondbacks have lost the game, 11 of the last 12 losses were by 2+ runs. Take the Dodgers minus 1.5 runs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-21-24 | Pacers v. Celtics -9 | Top | 128-133 | Loss | -115 | 41 h 54 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Indiana. The Celtics have won two 5-game series to reach the Eastern Conference finals. In both prior series, the Celts have blown out their opponent in Game 1 (by 20 and 25 points) while then losing Game 2 outright (by 10 and 24 points). I expect a similar strong showing in Game 1 on Tuesday night against a Pacers team coming off a grueling 7-game series. Indeed, teams that came back with wins in Games 6 + 7 to win a 7-game series have struggled in Game 1 of their next series, going 0-8 ATS their last eight. Even worse for Indy: it's 0-8 ATS its last eight off back to back ATS wins. Lay the points with Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-21-24 | Orioles -140 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:45 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards drew first blood in this inter-league series on Monday night behind a strong pitching performance by Sonny Gray. Baltimore's Kyle Bradish had his last start delayed by one day due to a rainout a week ago and the O's won that start on Wednesday, although Bradish lasted only four innings and took a no-decision in the victory. Look for an improved performance tonight at Busch Stadium as Bradish takes the mound for his fourth start of the season in this second game of the series. Through his first three outings, the 27-year-old RHP sports a solid 2.63 ERA with 17 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings. In 15 career inter-league starts covering just over 86 innings, Bradish is 6-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 97 punch outs. His only previous start vs. the Cards was a good one as Bradish went seven innings, allowing two runs on four hits with 11 strikeouts and no walks in a 5-3 O's win that also happened to be his first Major League victory back in 2022. St. Louis will hand the ball to veteran RHP Lance Lynn, who has a bloated 7.36 ERA over his last three outings. And the Cards have lost each of his last four starts. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
05-20-24 | Oilers -150 v. Canucks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
At 9:00 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Vancouver Canucks. When you have the best all-around player in the World, it does wonders for your chances -- even if you have to win a Game 7 on the road. So, despite having to play at Vancouver tonight, because the Oilers have Connor McDavid on their side, they will be favored to advance to the Western Conference Final. By the same token, Vancouver's objective tonight is simple -- stop McDavid. In the last five games of this series, when the 27-year-old superstar center tallied at least one point, the Edmonton Oilers won. In the two games that he was held point-less -- you guessed it -- they lost. Of course it's easier said than done to keep McDavid, who led the conference with 100 assists in the regular season, off the board. Also, in their three victories, the Oilers have allowed an average of just 18 shots on goal (with no game more than 21), so another defensive effort like that should get the job done tonight. The Oilers are a solid 41-16 (+16.5 net games) on the division road the past 3 seasons. And they're 44-10 following a game where they didn't give up 2+ goals. Take Edmonton. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-20-24 | Padres v. Braves -119 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
At 12:20 pm, in Game 1 of the double-header, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the San Diego Padres. Reynaldo Lopez will be making his 8th start, and his stats through his first 7 rank among MLB's best. Lopez has a 1.34 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. And at home, his numbers are a spectacular 0.77 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP. Not surprisingly, the Braves have won all four of his home starts this season (and his teams are 8-1 his last nine home starts). Dylan Cease has also been strong (2.45 ERA; 0.78 WHIP). But Atlanta is a super 23-7 at home vs. NL starting pitchers with a 1.15 (or better) WHIP. And it's 34-17 off back to back losses. | |||||||
05-19-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 43 m | Show |
On Sunday, in Game 7 of the quarterfinal series between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points. The T-Wolves brought their A+ game on Thursday, and held the defending champs to just 70 points, in a 45-point blowout win at home. However, notwithstanding their 2023 championship season, the Nuggets have NOT been a strong road team the last two seasons. This season, they've been 2.90 points per game WORSE against the spread on the road than at home. Last season, the number was 5.55 ppg worse against the spread on the road than at home. We'll take Denver to rebound in Game 7, as rested home teams have gone 67.4% ATS since 1991 at home when favored by more than 4 points off a loss by more than 35 points. And in match-ups between teams with .500 (or better) win percentages, the Timberwolves are a soft 38-70 ATS when they won the previous matchup by 9+ points. Finally, Denver is 31-14 ATS at home when rested and playing with revenge, if its win percentage was .600 (or better). Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-19-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets UNDER 198.5 | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 67 h 41 m | Show |
On Sunday, in Game 7 between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves, our selection is on the Under. Game 6 was won by the Timberwolves, 115-70, and went under by 20.5 points. We'll look for another low-scoring game on Sunday, as the Nuggets have gone under in 15 of their last 22 playoff games, including 9-3 under at home. Even better: defending NBA Champions have gone under 60.4% since 1990 in Games 5, 6 or 7 of a Playoff series. And NBA teams that failed to score 72+ points in their previous game have gone under in the playoffs 75% since 1990 when the line was greater than 188. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-19-24 | Mariners v. Orioles -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Seattle Mariners. The Orioles will look to bounce back off last night's 4-3 loss to the M's. The good news for Baltimore is that RHP Corbin Burnes will be toeing the rubber this afternoon. And Burnes has been a model of consistency this season, as he's pitched between 5 and 7 innings, and given up 3 runs or less in all nine of his starts. For the season, his ERA is 2.68, and his WHIP is 1.00. It doesn't get much better than that. George Kirby's ERA this season is almost a full run higher, at 3.58. And the Mariners have lost his last 3 starts to Baltimore (4.18 ERA), and 9 of his 11 road starts, when priced as an underdog (minus 6.7 net games). Take Baltimore. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-18-24 | Canucks v. Oilers -184 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:00 pm, our selection is on the Edmonton Oilers over the Vancouver Canucks. After splitting the first four games, Vancouver won a huge Game 5 at home to get to a series-clinching situation tonight. Now, Game 6 switches back to Edmonton and the big question for the Oilers is whether they will switch back to Stuart Skinner in goal or stick with back-up Calvin Pickard. Skinner -- who started the bulk of the games for Edmonton in the regular season -- really struggled in the Oilers' losses in Games 1 and 3 and Pickard has been solid, even in defeat on Thursday. Still, I expect the Oilers to go with the well-rested Skinner in this elimination game, and then possibly switch back to a rested Pickard for Game 7 (but we are taking the Oilers, regardless of which goalie is between the pipes). The fact of the matter is that the Game 5 road loss falls on the Oilers' offense, which managed just 23 shots on young Canucks goalie, Arturs Silovs, who is subbing for the injured Thatcher Demko. If Connor McDavid and company can get back to the output they had in Games 2, 3 and 4, Edmonton should be able to force a Game 7 back in Vancouver. Key stat: the Oilers are 8-1 their last 9 after a game where they had 24 or less shots on goal. Take the Oilers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-18-24 | Thunder v. Mavs UNDER 210.5 | Top | 116-117 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 13 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Under in Game 6 between Oklahoma City and Dallas. We played on Game 5 to go under the total of 213, and were rewarded with a very low-scoring game, as Dallas upset the Thunder, 105-95. That was the 3rd straight game that went under by double-digits. Game 3 went under 217 by 11 points, as the Mavs won, 105-101, while Game 4 went under the total of 215 by 19 points, as OKC triumphed, 100-96. We'll come right back with the under in Game 6, as the oddsmakers still haven't adjusted this number appropriately. These two teams have now played seven consecutive halves where the combined score was 103 points or less (99, 103, 103, 97, 99, 98 and 98). The Mavs are now 45-22-1 under their last 68. Take the Under in Game 6. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-18-24 | Thunder +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 116-117 | Win | 100 | 67 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over Dallas. The Mavs have pushed the Thunder to the brink of elimination with a 104-92 upset victory in Game 5. Off that loss, we'll fade Dallas as a home favorite on Saturday. Indeed, .667 (or worse) teams have gone 1-9 ATS when favored by more than 2 points at home, if they were off an upset win, and led 3-games-to-2 in the series. Additionally, the Thunder have been terrific off a straight-up loss, when playing with revenge, as they've gone 60-33-2 ATS. And Dallas is 32-57-2 ATS off a SU win, if it was playing a .333 (or better) revenge-minded foe. Grab the points with OKC. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-18-24 | Pirates v. Cubs -187 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. After what Paul Skenes did for the Pirates yesterday (six no-hit innings with 11 strikeouts and one walk), NL Rookie of Year may be his to lose. However there's another rookie going to the mound in Game 2 of this series who should at worst get a mention in that category. But not only is the Cubs' Shota Imanaga not the first name that comes to mind when you think of NL Rookie pitchers, he's not even the first name that comes to mind when you think of NL Rookie Japanese pitchers. In fact Chicago's first-year southpaw isn't just holding his own against Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers, he's actually been much better than him pretty much across the board (except for Ks). In eight starts covering 46 2/3 innings, Imanaga is 5-0 with a league-best 0.96 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 51 Ks and eight BBs. And the 30-year-old has a chance to even this series with his ninth start this afternoon. The Cubs are 6-0 in six games this season as a home favorite of -150 or more. Take Chicago. As always, good luck....Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-17-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -5 | Top | 103-116 | Win | 100 | 68 h 23 m | Show |
On Friday, in Game 6, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over the New York Knicks. We played on New York on Tuesday, and were rewarded with a 121-91 blowout win. We'll switch gears and lay the points with the Pacers on Friday. Indiana has been great at home this season, as it's covered the spread by an average of 3.90 ppg at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (compared to a -0.90 ppg figure on the road). That bodes well for the Pacers in Indianapolis. As does the fact that Indy is a super 24-9-2 ATS this season when rested, and off a straight-up loss, including 14-4 ATS off a double-digit defeat. Finally, Indiana is an awesome 160-95-10 ATS off a loss when rested, and playing with revenge vs. a foe off a SU win. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-17-24 | Knicks v. Pacers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 103-116 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 22 m | Show |
On Friday, in Game 6, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indiana/New York game. We cashed the Under in Game 5, as the two teams scored just 48 points in the 3rd quarter and 41 in the 4th. I look for the offenses to continue to stagnate in this Game 6. Indeed, only 2 of the last 10 quarters have gone for 55 or more points. And with an Over/Under line this high, that's just not going to get the job done. Tom Thibodeau-coached teams have gone 25-15-1 UNDER their last 41 Playoff games. And the Under falls into a 218-133 Totals system of mine. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-17-24 | Panthers v. Bruins +128 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Florida Panthers. Down 3-games-to-1, the Bruins had to win on the road in Game 5 of this series and not only did they do that, but they also were finally able to shut down the vaunted Florida offensive attack. Boston played its best defensive game of the series on Tuesday, holding the Panthers to just 29 shots on goal after they had averaged over 36 in the first four games of this series. Florida started Game 5 very slowly and was beaten to the puck on numerous occasions early on while not finding any rhythm with its passing and puck control. By the time the Panthers got things under control it was too late as McAvoy scored the game winner about halfway through the second period and goalie Jeremy Swayman slammed the door shut the rest of the way resulting in a 2-1 Bruins victory. Another tight effort like that should get the job done back at home tonight and force yet another Game 7. The Bruins are 15-6 in their last 21 off a close one-goal win over a division rival. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-15-24 | Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 213 | Top | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 39 h 25 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Under in Game 5 between Oklahoma City and Dallas. After combining for 130 points in the first half of Game 2, the Mavericks and Thunder have played five consecutive halves where the combined score was 103 points or less (99, 103, 103, 97 and 99). The Over/Under lines have slowly come down from Game 1 (which was 219), but I don't believe the number has come down enough for this Game 5, and the value is on the Under. For technical support, consider that Dallas is 44-22-1 UNDER its last 67. And NBA Playoff series tied at 2-games apiece have gone 25-15 (62.5%) Under their last 40. Take Game 5 Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-14-24 | Wolves +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 45 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over the Denver Nuggets. We had our 5* NBA Game of the Year on Denver in Game 3 at Minnesota. And I mentioned then that the road team was 52-20-1 ATS in this series. Well, fast forward to Game 5, and the road team is now 54-20-1 ATS in the Nuggets/T-Wolves series, including 4-0 in this year's playoffs. As my mom used to say, 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it," and we'll continue to ride the road team. Add to that the fact that Minnesota is now 13-0 ATS on the road when playing an opponent which defeated it in Minnesota in the prior meeting. And the T-Wolves are also 8-0 ATS their last eight road games off an upset loss. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-14-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -2 | Top | 91-121 | Win | 100 | 38 h 6 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over the Indiana Pacers. New York dropped both games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, including a 121-89 defeat on Sunday, and are now knotted up at 2-games-apiece in the quarterfinal series. We'll take New York to bounce back at home, as it is 31-11 ATS as a single-digit favorite when playing with revenge. Moreover, home favorites with a .605 (or better) win percentage, off a loss by more than 23 points, have cashed 60% ATS since Dec. 4, 1991. Take New York. | |||||||
05-14-24 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 217 | Top | 91-121 | Win | 100 | 38 h 6 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Under in the New York/Indiana game. After Games 1 + 2 went for 238 and 251 points, we've seen a downturn in the scoring in Games 3 + 4. Those two games only totaled 217 and 210 points, and went under the total by 4 and 9.5 points, respectively. We played on the Under in Game 3, and will come back with the Under in this Game 5, as it falls into a 217-133 Playoff Totals system of mine. New York has gone 15-6-2 UNDER in the Playoffs following a SU loss, and Tom Thibodeau-coached teams have gone 24-15-1 UNDER their last 40 Playoff games. Take Game 5 Under. | |||||||
05-13-24 | Stars v. Avalanche -129 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -129 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Dallas Stars. If the Stars make it to the Stanley Cup Finals -- and indeed if they win it all -- they may look back on the third game of this series as being the turning point. After splitting the first two games at home, Dallas was in the unenviable position of having to go to the toughest arena for visitors in the league with the likely prospect of returning home down three games to one. But not only did Dallas win Game 3, it shut down the potent Avalanche offense in the process and scored two late empty net goals for a 4-1 win. The Stars' penalty kill was outstanding, especially in the first period when they had to withstand three Colorado power plays, and did so successfully while taking a 1-0 lead into the first intermission. A repeat of that performance however seems unlikely as the Avs rarely lose two home games in a row. Dallas is just 3-9 in its last 12 after scoring four or more goals against a Division rival, and a poor 29-31 (minus 18.5 net games) off back to back wins. Meanwhile, Colorado is a fantastic 37-17 (+14.4 net games) off back to back losses. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-13-24 | Thunder +1.5 v. Mavs | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Dallas Mavericks. OKC lost narrowly, 105-101, in Game 3 at Dallas. The Thunder, though, have been sensational off a straight-up loss, when playing with revenge, as they've gone 59-33-2 ATS. Meanwhile, Dallas is 32-56-2 ATS off a SU win, if it was playing a .333 (or better) revenge-minded foe. OKC has gone 9-5 ATS vs. the Mavericks since 2022, and 35-16-2 ATS off a loss by 6 or less points. And NBA teams off narrow SU/ATS Playoff losses by 6 or less points have rebounded to go 44-19 ATS. Take the Thunder. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-13-24 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 208.5 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 30 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 4 between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers. We played on the under in Game 3, and easily cashed, as it went under by 12.5 points. We will come right back with the under in Game 4, as Cleveland is 15-4 Under its last 19 playoff games, including 11-1 under when the O/U line was > 203 points. And Boston has gone under its last 5 road playoff games. Finally, the under falls into an NBA Totals system of mine which is 217-133 since 1990. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-13-24 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -160 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
At 6:35 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. There's no doubt that Baltimore's trade for Corbin Burnes in the off-season was one of the biggest acquisitions of this past winter. And through his first five starts it seemed the 29-year-old RH could do almost nothing wrong -- and the Orioles as well when he was out there. Burnes went 3-0 in those first five while the O's went 5-0. But Baltimore has lost Burnes' last three starts as the team has managed just two total runs in those games (and been shut out in the last two of them). So although he's still been pitching very well, Burnes has hit a bit of a rough patch due to a lack of run support. Perhaps a start against the Blue Jays -- the second of his career -- will turn things around. Teams tend to score runs in bunches against Toronto lately. In the Jays' last six games they've allowed a total of 40 runs (almost seven per game). Toronto is 4-12 this season as an underdog. And Burnes won his only previous start vs. Toronto, allowing three runs on five hits in 7 2/3 IP in a 5-4 Milwaukee victory in 2022. Take the O's. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-12-24 | Panthers v. Bruins +133 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Florida Panthers. The Hangover continues for Boston and its fans. After surprisingly blowing out the Panthers in Game 1 of this series following a grueling seven games against Toronto, Boston has now thrown in two clunkers in a row. In Game 2 in Miami the Bruins were trounced 6-1, and managed just 15 shots on goal. Then on Friday night they came back to Beantown and performed only marginally better, losing 6-2 while putting only two more shots on goal than they did last Wednesday. Now it's almost a must-win situation in Game 4 back at TD Garden. We'll take the home underdog, as Boston is 25-11 in its last 36 after allowing five goals or more in its previous (and 9-3 in its last 12 after allowing six or more). Take the Bruins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-11-24 | Celtics -7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland. The Celts were shellacked at home, 118-94, by the Cavaliers on Thursday. Unfortunately for Cleveland, the Celtics are an exceptional 93-54 ATS on the road off a home loss by more than 7 points. Take Boston minus the points in Game 3. | |||||||
05-11-24 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 213 | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 40 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between Boston and Cleveland. The Celtics come into this game off a 24-point home defeat. I look for Boston to tighten the screws on defense in Game 3, as it will look to redeem itself from that debacle at home. The Celts have gone 57-32 UNDER the total off a home loss when the O/U line was < 214, including 7-0 UNDER their last seven playoff games off a home defeat. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-11-24 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -142 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the New York Rangers. The Hurricanes were really hoping to win Game 3 on Thursday night in front of the home crowd in Raleigh, but that didn't happen. Once again, the game went into overtime -- the second straight game of this series to do so -- and once again it was the Rangers who scored (it didn't take very long this time). Now with their backs against the proverbial wall, Carolina knows it has to grab Game 4 tonight. The good news is that once again they out-played their opponents, out-shooting the Rangers by a lopsided 47-25. That's 104 shots over the last two OT games so all they need to do is figure out how to beat New York's goalie, Igor Shesterkin. More good news for the home team tonight -- the 'Canes are 14-2 in their last 16 coming off a home loss to a division rival (5-0 in their last five in those situations). Take Carolina. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-11-24 | Thunder +3.5 v. Mavs | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over Dallas. The Mavericks leveled the series at 1-game apiece on Thursday, with a nine-point win over the Thunder. We'll fade Dallas on Saturday afternoon, as the Mavericks are a wallet-busting 29-50 ATS off an upset win, while the Thunder are 23-15 ATS off an upset loss. Moreover, the Mavs are a poor 31-56 ATS off a win, if they were playing a revenge-minded foe with a .333 (or better) win percentage. And OKC is a fantastic 43-16-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win that covered the spread in that victory by more than 8 points. Look for the Thunder to rebound on Saturday. Grab the points. | |||||||
05-10-24 | Nuggets +4.5 v. Wolves | Top | 117-90 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets + the points over the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Nuggets were annihilated, 106-80, in Game 2 and now trail 2-games-to-none in the quarterfinal series. Denver shot just 34.9% from the field, which was its 2nd-worst FG percentage this season. And its 80 points was the least amount that it scored in 4 years. We'll take the Nuggets to bounce back tonight, as they've gone 33-18-2 ATS vs. .400 (or better) foes, if the Nuggets were on a 3-game ATS losing streak. Additionally, .610 (or better) teams off a playoff defeat in which they scored 80 (or less) points, and 2+ losses overall, have covered 68.1% since 1991. Even better: .684 (or better) teams have covered 69% following a game where they failed to cover the point spread by more than 30 points. Finally, this has been a division rivalry which has been dominated by the road team, as the road teams are now 52-20-1 ATS, including 23-3 ATS when priced from +1.5 to +7 points. Take the Nuggets + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -6 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, on Friday, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over the New York Knicks. Rick Carlisle's men find themselves in a 2-games-to-none hole, as this quarterfinals series shifts to the Hoosier State. The good news for Indiana is that it's dominated the Knicks at home, going 20-5 SU and 16-9 ATS the last 25 meetings. And, off back-to-back losses, there's a lot more to like about Indiana in this Game 3. First, the Pacers are 16-10-1 ATS this season when playing with revenge. And, second, Indiana is an awesome 10-1 ATS its last 11 (and 25-12-2 ATS its last 39) off a straight-up loss. Finally, sub-.663 teams are 0-7 ATS their last seven as underdogs on the road when up exactly 2 games in a Playoff series, losing by an average of 15.7 ppg, and failing to cover the spread by an average of 10.5 ppg in those games. Lay the points with the Pacers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers UNDER 226 | Top | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 39 h 54 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in Game 3 between the New York Knicks and the Indiana Pacers. The Knicks won Game 1 vs. Indiana, 121-117, and followed up that game with a 130-121 triumph in Game 2. Off those two high-scoring wins, we'll look for a lower-scoring game on Friday night. Indeed, over the last 34 years, NBA teams have gone under the total 58.1% in the Playoffs off back to back wins, in which they scored more than 116 points. And the Knicks have also gone 19-9 Under when installed as an underdog vs. the Pacers. Take Game 3 to go UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-10-24 | Panthers v. Bruins +108 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:00 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Florida Panthers. The letdown that you might have expected from the Bruins after their grueling seven-game series against the Maple Leafs didn't come in the first game of the second round. It came in Game 2 instead. After Boston dominated Florida at home, 5-1, the Panthers returned the favor and thoroughly thrashed the Bruins on Wednesday night, 6-1, limiting the visitors to just 15 shots on goal. Tonight the series switches to the TD Garden for Games 3 and 4 and Boston knows it can ill-afford to have another let-down like it did two nights ago. That Game 2 victory was the first win for the Panthers over the Bruins in the last six tries, including the entire regular season as Boston swept Florida over the four games. The Bruins are also 11-2 in their last 13 when revenging a road loss to an opponent and they're 5-0 in their last five when those losses are to a Division rival. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie | |||||||
05-09-24 | Avalanche v. Stars -125 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Colorado Avalanche. With a loss in Game 1 on Tuesday, the Dallas Stars now come into Game 2 at home knowing that is almost a must-win situation. The Avs are so good at home this season -- and in seasons past -- that for the Stars to go down 0-2 as they did in their first round series probably means they are going to be eliminated. That Tuesday night loss really stung as Dallas shockingly blew a 3-0 first period lead at home. The Stars will undoubtedly make some adjustments tonight to make another meltdown like the one they experienced in Game 1 as unlikely as possible. Their first order of business will be to increase their shot total above the 22 that they managed on Tuesday. There are at least a couple of reasons to think that the Stars will even this series tonight. Dallas is 20-9 in its last 29 games immediately after allowing four or more goals and 8-1 in its last nine (24-7 in its last 31) after a loss to a division rival. Take the Stars. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-08-24 | Bruins +155 v. Panthers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Florida Panthers. After a grueling seven-game series that ended with a victory in overtime on Saturday to advance them to the second round, the Bruins showed no signs of weariness in Game 1 of this series. In fact, you could say that Monday's dismantling of the Panthers, 5-1, was Boston's best showing so far this post-season. And it was a balanced attack as five different Bruins scored the five goals, including an empty-netter near the end by Jake DeBrusk. Not only did their offense go crazy by scoring five straight after Florida took a 1-0 lead, but Bruins' goalie Jeremy Swayman was outstanding in net, stopping 38 of 39 Panther shots. They'll look to repeat the effort in Game 2 back in South Florida while the Panthers will have to find out a way to stop the onslaught from Boston's front lines. But recent history is against them as the Panthers are 0-5 this season vs. Boston; 4-11 in their last 15 coming off a home loss to a Division rival; and 1-6 in their last seven off a division loss by more than 3 goals. Take the Bruins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-08-24 | Orioles -168 v. Nationals | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 6:45 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Washington Nationals. Baltimore was shut out, 3-0, by the Nationals last night. We'll take the Birds to bounce back on Wednesday evening, as they're 9-2 off a loss this season. Even better: Kyle Bradish has made two career starts vs. Washington, and has yet to give up a run in 14 innings (8 hits, 3 walks, 10 strikeouts). Baltimore has gone 8-1 as a road favorite with Bradish on the hill, and is 75-46 (+33.3 net games) vs. lefties. Take the Orioles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-07-24 | Avalanche v. Stars -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Colorado Avalanche. This will be the sixth time in NHL history that these two teams have met in the playoffs -- most recently in 2020 (second round) when the Stars prevailed in seven games. Dallas cannot afford to get this series off to the same kind of start it had in Round 1 against the Knights when it lost the first two games at home. The Stars need to take advantage of the fact that Colorado is not the same team on the road (19-22 regular season) as it is at home (31-10). Then there's also the question of how well Colorado will do in Game 1 tonight off of such a long rest as the Avs haven't played in seven days. The Avs have been without winger Jonathan Drouin since April 18 (lower body injury) and he is unlikely to be available again tonight for Game 1. The Stars go from playing outside their Division in the first round to inside and they are 17-9 in their last 26 games vs. Central division opponents. Take Dallas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-07-24 | Red Sox v. Braves -168 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Boston Red Sox. While the Orioles and Yankees are doing what many people predicted they would do (win games), the Red Sox are somewhat surprisingly holding their own in the AL East so far. It's been Boston's pitching which has gotten the job done, although the hitting came through on Sunday after they plated just four runs the previous three games. They've also been facing mostly sub-par competition and that ends today with a trip to Atlanta. Surprise star RH Kutter Crawford will go to the hill against another surprise in LH Reynaldo Lopez. The 30-year-old Lopez is making Atlanta his fifth MLB stop and so far the trip south is agreeing with him. In five starts covering 30 IP, Lopez is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The Sox are struggling against LH pitching this season, hitting just .239 vs. southpaws. And they're 75-107 (minus 11.4 net games) as an underdog. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 206-102 (+32.0 net games) as a favorite, and 11-4, 73%, off 3+ losses. In two starts this season here at Truist Park, Lopez is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA (1 R in 13 IP) and 0.85 WHIP. Take the Braves. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-07-24 | Cavs v. Celtics -10.5 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 41 h 31 m | Show |
At 7 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics minus the points over Cleveland. While the Cavaliers were stretched to 7 games by the Orlando Magic, the Celtics were resting comfortably following their 4-1 series triumph over Miami. Boston was in championship form, for the most part, in that series, as its wins were by 20, 20, 14 and 34 points. The Celtics were our preseason pick (at 4-1 odds) to win the NBA title, and they've done nothing to disappoint throughout the season. Indeed, over the last 34 seasons, their current scoring margin of 11.58 has only been bettered by two teams at this juncture of an NBA season: the Michael Jordan-led Bulls team which won 72 games, and the Steph Curry-led Warriors team in 2017. Both of those other teams won NBA titles, and I believe the Celts will join them. In this Game 1, we'll lay the points with Boston, as it is 79-45-3 ATS off a 20-point (or greater) home win. And the Cavaliers are 7-20 ATS as road underdogs vs. revenge-minded foes. Take Boston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-06-24 | Wolves v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 106-80 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 30 m | Show |
At 10 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets minus the points over Minnesota. The T-Wolves handed the Nuggets a 106-99 home loss to open the series, so Denver will look to level the series at 1-game apiece with a win tonight. The Nuggets don't lose back to back home games very often, and are an awesome 131-70-5 ATS at home, when rested, and priced from +2.5 to -11, if they lost their previous home game, straight-up. That bodes well for Denver on Monday. As does the fact that teams down 1-game-to-0 in a Playoff series vs. a division rival, have gone 12-1-2 ATS in Game 2, if they weren't favored by 7+ points. Finally, Minnesota comes into Monday's game off 3 straight upset wins. Unfortunately, NBA teams have covered just 38% in the Playoffs the past 34 years following three straight upset victories. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
05-06-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -6 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Knicks minus the points over Indiana. When these teams last met, Indiana came into Madison Square Garden and blew out the Knicks, 125-111. But OG Anunoby, Isaiah Hartenstein, and Mitchell Robinson, were injured in that game. We'll take New York in this Game 1, as it is 15-1 its last 16 as a revenge-minded favorite of less than 10 points. And Indy is 2-20 ATS following a point spread win, if it was matched up against a foe it defeated by more than 5 points in the prior meeting. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Steve Janus | $751 |
Chip Chirimbes | $636 |
Rocky's Lock Club | $630 |
Pure Lock | $473 |
Marc Lawrence | $380 |
Mike Lundin | $340 |
Jack Jones | $305 |
Rocky Atkinson | $291 |
Dave Price | $274 |
R&R Totals | $265 |