PAGE_HEADER

At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles come into this Monday Night Football game with a 2-0 record after beating the Patriots and Vikings to start the season.  We'll go against Philly, as undefeated teams have cashed just 39.5% as a road favorite on Monday Night Football since 1980, including 2-11 ATS vs. opponents off a straight-up and against-the-spread win.  With Tampa, indeed, in off a 10-point victory over the Bears, I'll grab the points with the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Bears have started the season 0-2 SU/ATS, with an 18-point loss to Green Bay in Week 1, and a 10-point defeat last Sunday at Tampa.  Meanwhile, KC is 1-1 SU/ATS as it lost to the Lions at home, but rebounded to take down the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week.  I like taking underdogs in Week 3 off back to back double-digit losses, as they’ve covered 63% since 1980.  Take Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Green Bay Packers.  The Saints come into this week's game with one of the four best scoring defenses, along with Dallas, Baltimore and San Francisco.  New Orleans has allowed just 16 ppg in its wins over Tennessee and Carolina.  That bodes well for them in Week 3, as NFL teams have cashed 72.3% off a win in Week 2, if their defense was giving up less than 20 points per game, and their opponent was off a straight-up loss.  Even better:  New Orleans is a solid 68-49 ATS as a road underdog off an ATS loss/tie in its previous game.  Take the Saints.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Commanders are a surprising 2-0 following wins over the Cardinals and Broncos, and have been installed as a big home underdog vs. Buffalo, which blew out the Raiders by 28 points at home last week.  I'll take the home team, as winning home underdogs have gone 99-60 ATS since 1980 vs. foes off a 15-point (or greater) blowout home win.  Take the Commanders.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets. The Patriots come into this divisional match-up off back to back home losses in which they were underdogs, and failed to cover the point spread.  I'll take New England on the road vs. New York as NFL teams that failed to cover their first two games as underdogs have cashed 62% as favorites in Week 3.  Also, the Patriots are 16-0 ATS in the regular season on the road off a straight-up home loss, when not favored by 7+ points.  And the Jets are a miserable 68-120 ATS at home vs. foes that don't own a winning record.  Take New England.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Jacksonville.  I'm not a big fan of laying a lot of points with teams that don't have a winning record.  And especially not against a winless team like Houston.  Consider that .500 or worse teams are 69-109-3 ATS when laying 9 or more points to winless opposition.  I’ll take the double-digits with Houston.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the San Francisco 49ers.  The Giants' defense has left a lot to be desired so far, this season.  New York allowed 40 points to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 1, and then gave up 28 to the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday.  But off those two awful defensive games, I actually look for a much better effort in Week 3.  Indeed, NFL road teams not favored by 3 or more points, have gone 39-12-3 ATS in Week 3 if they allowed 62 or more points over their first two games, including a perfect 9-0-1 ATS off a straight up win.  Take New York + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants minus the points over Arizona.  The Giants laid a goose egg last Sunday, as they were shut out, 40-0, by Dallas.  Off that embarrassing defeat, we'll step in and lay the points with New York in Week 2.  Indeed, road favorites (or PK) have covered 64% since 1980 off a division shutout loss.  And the Giants are also a solid 42-23-1 ATS off a home point spread defeat.  Take New York minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over San Francisco.  The Rams pulled off a stunning Week 1 upset, when they blew out the Seattle Seahawks, 30-13, on the road.  They will now welcome the 49ers to SoFi Stadium.  We'll take the Rams as a huge underdog, as home dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 72-53 ATS off a road upset win.  And San Francisco is a wallet-busting 35-58 ATS away from home off a win by 13+ points, including 5-18 ATS when priced from -4 to -10 points.  Take the Rams.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Tampa Bay Bucs.  Last week, the Bears were upset, 38-20, by their rival, Green Bay, while Tampa upset Minnesota, 20-17.  If one looks at the yardage stats, however, one will see that Chicago was only outgained by 18 yards (329-311), while Tampa was outgained by 127 (369-242).  The difference in the two games, of course, was turnovers.  Chicago committed 2 turnovers (vs 0 for Green Bay), while Tampa forced 3 turnovers, and didn't commit any, itself.  We'll fade Tampa off its upset win, as home favorites have covered just 31% since 1980 in Week 2 off an upset road victory, if its opponent was off an upset defeat.  Grab the points with Chicago.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over Detroit.  The Lions upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs to kick off their season.  But off that upset victory, we'll fade Detroit on Sunday.  Indeed, over the past 43 years, home favorites have covered just 30.7% off an upset win over the defending Super Bowl champs, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset defeat.  With Seattle in off an upset loss at the hands of the Rams, we'll grab the points with Pete Carroll's men.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over the Las Vegas Raiders.  Josh Allen could not have played worse last Monday, as he committed a key fumble, and also threw 3 interceptions.  We didn't mind, as we had a big play on the Jets.  But we'll switch gears, and take Buffalo to bounce back here, at home, in Week 2.  The Bills are a solid 20-6 ATS as a home favorite off a road loss, when playing an opponent off a win.  Lay the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons over the Green Bay Packers.  The Packers have been installed as a small road favorite following their upset win, 38-20, over division rival, Chicago.  We'll fade Green Bay, as road favorites have covered just 33% since 1980 in Week 2 off upset wins on the road over a division rival to start the season.  I look for Green Bay to have a letdown on Sunday.  Take Atlanta.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over the Buffalo Bills.  The Jets are looking for big things this season behind newly-acquired QB Aaron Rodgers.  And it all starts tonight, in a Week 1 game against division rival, Buffalo.  We'll grab the points with New York, as Aaron Rodgers has gone 73-43-4 ATS at home in his career starts, including 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog, and 29-13 ATS in division games.  Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are a wallet-busting 9-16-1 ATS as a division road favorite.  Take New York.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Miami Dolphins.  The Chargers are my Futures Pick this season at 25-1 odds to win the Super Bowl.  I expect a major leap forward for Brandon Staley’s men and one of my primary reasons is the hire of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator.  When Moore was with the Cowboys the past 4 seasons, Dallas’s offense ranked among the Top 4 in the league over that 4-year stretch.  The Chargers added rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnson, who was their first round draft pick, and he’ll team up with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to give 4th year QB Justin Herbert a trio of quality receivers to throw downfield.  And, of course, the Chargers have Austin Ekeler in the backfield, so the pieces are there to make a Super Bowl run.  The Chargers are 15-2-1 ATS in season openers when not favored by 4+ points, including a perfect 10-0 ATS in non-division games.  Take Los Angeles to blow out Miami.   Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over Philadelphia.  The Patriots have been installed as a home underdog vs. the defending NFC Conference champs, and I’ll grab the points with Bill Belichick's men.  New England is 31-16-1 ATS as a home underdog (or PK), including 23-7 ATS vs. non-division foes, while Philly is a poor 10-22 ATS as a road favorite of -3 (or more) points, including 3-12 ATS in non-division games.  Even worse for the Eagles:  the teams that lost the Super Bowl the previous year have gone 12-32-2 ATS as a non-division road favorite of -4 or less points vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Underdog is 8-3 ATS in this series.  Take the Patriots + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Division home dogs in the month of September are 51-29 ATS their last 80. And the underdog
in this Buckeye State rivalry has gone 20-11-1 ATS in the last 32 meetings, and 6-1 ATS in the last seven.  Take the Browns + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, on February 12, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to go OVER the total.  The Chiefs were the #1 offensive team in the league this past season, as they scored 29.1 ppg.  The Eagles finished #3, with an average of 28.05 ppg.  But the Chiefs failed to reach 28 points in either of their two playoff games, and both went under the total.  Indeed, the Chiefs have now gone under the total in each of their last three games by 5.5, 5.0 and 8.0 points.  But off those three games, we'll look for a much higher scoring game on Super Bowl Sunday, as Andy Reid-coached teams have gone Over the total 63% off 3+ Unders.  Additionally, NFL games with Over/Under lines of 50+ points have gone OVER the total 84.2% since 1980 if a team averaged at least 23 ppg on offense, and each of its three previous games went UNDER the total by more than 4 points.  And, finally, NFL match-ups between two exceptional offensive teams with scoring averages at 27.0 ppg (or better) have gone OVER the total 75.8% since 2003 if neither team went OVER the total in its previous game.  This will be a high-scoring game.  Take Super Bowl 57 OVER the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total.  These two AFC powerhouses met three times in 2022.  The Bengals won all three meetings by a field goal.  And all three games went for a total score NORTH of 50 points, as they totaled 65, 51 and 51 points.  The Over/Under line for this AFC Championship game is south of 50 points.  And the Chiefs have gone OVER in 9 of 11 games when the O/U line was 50 points or less.  We'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Sunday.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the OVER in the Philadelphia/San Francisco game.  NFC Championship games have largely been high-scoring affairs.  Indeed, the last 31 NFC Title games have gone OVER 21-8-2.  It's true that the 49ers only scored 19 points last week, and their game went Under the total.  But they've still gone OVER in 9 of 13 games since trading for Christian McCaffrey.  And they're 5-0 OVER since October 9 following a game which went Under.  Additionally, the Eagles are 14-4 OVER when matched up against .700 (or better) foes when the O/U line was 48 or less.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Dallas Cowboys/San Francisco 49ers game.  Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has received a major lift.  Prior to the trade, the Niners averaged 20.33 ppg, and SF went Under in five of its six games.  But following the trade, the 49ers' offense has averaged 30.75 ppg, and nine of the 12 games have gone Over the total.   Likewise, since QB Dak Prescott returned from injury, the Cowboys have averaged 32.33 ppg on offense, and seven of their 12 games have gone Over the total.  Last week, both the Cowboys and 49ers had high-scoring offensive performances in the Wild Card round.  Dallas defeated Tampa 31-14, while San Francisco bested Seattle, 41-23.  Since 1980, NFL Playoff games have gone OVER the total 63% if each team scored more than 30 points its previous game, and the O/U line was greater than 46 points.  And, finally, the 49ers have gone OVER 10-1-1 when priced as a favorite of -3.5 to -6 points, including 7-0 OVER at home.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 3 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals to go OVER the total.  When these two teams met in Cincinnati 20 days ago, the O/U line was 50.5.  And when the game was stopped in the first quarter, the in-game O/U line was 56.5.  Now, for this playoff game, the O/U line has been installed at a number less than the regular season meeting.  By my math, the value rests with the Over in this game.  Additionally, Bills have scored 32, 35, 35 and 34 points in their last four games, all of which went Over the total.  And the Bills have gone OVER in 11 of 14 home playoff games since 1980.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the New York Giants.  This is the Giants' 3rd straight road game, while Philly will be playing at home for its 3rd straight game.  Since 1980, whether in the regular season or playoffs, NFL teams (like New York) playing their 3rd straight road game have covered just 32% vs. foes who were playing their 3rd straight home game.  (In the playoffs, the record of our road teams is 4-13-2 ATS, including 0-5 ATS vs. .700 (or better) foes).  Last week, the Giants took advantage of a defensively-challenged Vikings team.  Minnesota made the playoffs even though it had a negative scoring margin (minus 0.17), and was giving up 25.11 ppg.  Indeed, the Vikings were just the 12th team since 1980 to earn a playoff berth with a defense that gave up more than 25 ppg.  So, kudos to New York for pulling the upset.  But also take that win with a boulder of salt.  This will be a much more difficult match-up for the Giants, as Philly's scoring margin rates 7.76 ppg better than New York's.  And, had QB Jalen Hurts played in the Eagles' two losses to Dallas + New Orleans, then that 7.76 number would be likely larger.  Since October 30, the Giants have gone 4-6-1 straight-up.  And in their last 11 games, they did not earn a single win against a team with a positive season scoring margin.  Their 4 wins were against the Houston Texans (minus 7.7 scoring margin), Washington Commanders (minus 1.29 scoring margin), Indianapolis Colts (minus 8.11 scoring margin), and the Vikings (minus 0.17 scoring margin).  New York lost both games this season to Philadelphia by an average of 16 ppg, and I don't believe it will be up to the task on Saturday night.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Jacksonville.  The Jaguars improbably roared back from a 27-0 deficit to stun the Los Angeles Chargers, 31-30.  That was the 3rd biggest comeback in the post-season (following Buffalo's comeback from a 32-point deficit on the Houston Oilers (Tennessee Titans) in the 1993 playoffs, and the Indianapolis Colts' comeback from a 28-point deficit on the Kansas City Chiefs.  And it was one of 26 comeback wins in NFL history by teams trailing by at least 24 points in the game.  However, when one looks at how those teams do the following week, they don't do very well.  Indeed, since 1980, they've covered the spread the following week just 30.7% of the time.  But that's not the worst part.  If a team came back from a 24-point (or worse) deficit, and was on the road in their next game, they've covered just 14%. And if they were playing a .615 (or better) opponent in their next game, then they've covered just 1 of 9.  And if they were an underdog of +4 (or more) points in their next game -- whether home or away -- then they've gone 0-6 ATS.  None of this bodes well for a Jaguars team playing a well-rested, Andy Reid-coached team.  In Reid's career, his teams have gone 29-6 SU and 22-13 ATS when playing with a week of rest, including 9-1 straight-up with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, and 13-0 straight-up when priced from -3.5 to -9.5 points.  It's true that the Jaguars are playing with revenge from a 10-point loss suffered here earlier this season.  But Reid's teams have gone 83-65-3 ATS against revenge-minded foes, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. foes off an upset home win.  Finally, the over/under line for this game is north of 50 points.  Unfortunately for Jacksonville, it's 0-16 straight-up and 2-14 ATS in games with an over/under line of 49+ points.  And it's 0-7 SU/ATS as an underdog of +13 or less points when matched up against an offense that scores > 27.75 ppg.  Take the Chiefs.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Bucs and Dallas Cowboys to go OVER the total.  These playoff games have all gone over the total thus far, and we'll look for the Bucs and Cowboys to make it a perfect 6-0 SWEEP for the Overs in the Wild Card round.  The Cowboys have played five of their last six (and seven of their last nine) OVER the total, while the Bucs have gone OVER in four of their last five.  And the OVER also falls into a 77-45 Totals system of mine.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game.  We played on the Over last week in the Bengals/Ravens game, and got the $$$ with Cincy's 27-16 win.  And we'll come right back with the Over in this Playoff game rematch.  Indeed, there have been 15 playoff games since 1980 where the teams also met in the final regular season game, and 12 of those 15 playoff games went Over the total.  Even better, the Bengals have gone Over the total 9 straight division games when the O/U line was between 38 and 44 points.  Take the Ravens/Bengals Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings Under the total.  The New York Giants went under the total in 10 of their 17 games this season, and have gone under 106-79-1 their last 186 games.  Even better:  when priced as an underdog of less than 4 points (or PK), New York has gone under 32-13-1, including 10-0 under its last 10.  And, finally, the Giants have also gone under in nine of their last 12 playoff games.  Likewise, Minnesota has gone under the total in nine of their last 12 playoff games.  This will be a low-scoring game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars Over the total.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 straight Unders, and they also won each of those games SU.  But off that string of low-scoring victories, we'll look for a relatively-high scoring game on Saturday, as NFL teams off 3 straight wins, and 3 straight unders have proceeded to go OVER the total 69.2% since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Chargers flew over the total in their previous game by 20 points, as they lost 31-28 to Denver, when the O/U line was just 39.  That also bodes well for the Over, as teams off high-scoring games that went over the total by 20+ points have also gone Over in their next game in the Playoffs 59% of the time.  The meeting between these teams earlier this season went over the total by 2.5 points, and 11 of the 13 meetings in this series have gone Over.  We'll look for another high-scoring game on Saturday night.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Minnesota Vikings.  The Vikings were blown out last week, and they’re now a road favorite against Nathan Peterman and the Bears.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, it’s 0-12 ATS as a division road favorite of -3 (or more) points if Minnesota lost its previous game.  And it’s 0-2 ATS this year, and 2-9 ATS its last 11 when favored by more than 5 points.  Meanwhile, the Bears are 21-5 ATS as a home dog if they were off back to back losses, and failed to cover the spread by more than 3 points in their previous game.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New York Jets/Miami Dolphins game.  These two teams met in Week 5, and the Jets bombed Miami, 40-17, and went over the total of 46 by 11 points.  The Dolphins will have the same quarterback (Skylar Thompson) they did for that game, while the Jets will be led by Joe Flacco (who started New York's first three games this season) rather than Zach Wilson.  Thompson actually was not the starter in that game, but he took over for an injured-Teddy Bridgewater on Miami's 2nd offensive play.  Thompson was 19 of 33 for 166 yards and an interception in that game.  With Flacco under center, New York's first three games this season averaged 44.3 ppg, and I expect New York's offense to move the ball against a Dolphins' defense which has allowed 33, 23, 32, 26 and 23 points in its last five games.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens Over the total.  This is the lowest Over/Under the Bengals have had since last year's final regular season game, when they matched up against the Cleveland Browns.  For my money, the number is too low.  Yes, Baltimore's offense is greatly hampered by the absence of Lamar Jackson.  But there's two sides to every coin, and Cincy's offense is humming right now.  Even last week against a good Buffalo defense, Cincinnati scored a touchdown on its first possession, and was on its way to a touchdown or field goal on its second possession when the game was halted.  The in-game Over/Under line was at 56.5 at the time the game was stopped.  The Bengals have scored an average of 29.28 ppg over their previous seven games, and I believe they'll find the end zone often this afternoon.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  This will likely be the first of back-to-back meetings between these AFC North rivals, as Cincinnati will probably be seeded #3, while the Ravens will probably earn the #6 seed in the conference seedings.  Anything could happen, of course, but that's the most likely scenario.  If they meet next week, there would also possibly be a major change in the Ravens' on-field personnel, as QB Lamar Jackson would make his return from injury.  For this game, Baltimore will once again start Tyler Huntley.  That gives the decided edge in this game to Cincinnati, which is playing the best of any team in the league.  Last Monday, in the cancelled game vs. Buffalo, the Bengals had scored a touchdown on their first possession, and looked to be on their way to scoring at least a field goal, if not a touchdown, on their second possession.  When the Bengals/Bills game was halted, the in-game line was Cincinnati -3.5, with an over/under of 56.5.  I believe the Bengals would have gone on to win that game.  This Bengals team is just not one I want to step in front of right now.  They’ve covered 12 of their last 13, with their only loss coming on Monday Night Football in a horrible situation against the Browns, who were looking to snap a 4-game losing streak.  The Bengals are an incredible 9-0 ATS their last 9 (and 20-4 ATS their last 24) when playing a winning opponent, if the Bengals were not getting more than 5 points.  Take Cincy.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers OVER the total.  The Ravens come into this game off 4 straight unders, including a 17-9 win over the Atlanta Falcons last Saturday.  Lamar Jackson will once again be sidelined, so the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for yet another low-scoring game tonight.  And especially because the Steelers + Ravens went Under earlier this season in Baltimore's 16-14 win.  But the Steelers have gone Over the total 60% of their rematches the past 23 seasons if the previous meeting went Under the total.  And the Over also falls into Totals system of mine which is 102-55 since 1980.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota.  The Packers and Vikings met in Week #1.  Early in that game, rookie WR Christian Watson dropped a sure TD pass as he sprinted wide open down the right sideline.  That miscue was the key play in that game, and the Packers could never get their offense on track in the 23-7 loss.  Fast forward to mid-November, and Watson had still never hauled in a TD pass.  But he had his coming-out party in Green Bay's 31-28 overtime win vs. Dallas, as he caught 3 TD passes of 58, 39 and 7 yards.  The Packers snapped their five-game losing streak that afternoon, and have won three of their five games since to pull into the Playoff picture.  Should the Packers win today and next week, and the Commanders lose once more, the Packers would qualify for the playoffs.  So, today's game is huge for Aaron Rodgers & Co.  And the Packers are an awesome 72-42-4 ATS at home with Rodgers under center, including 29-10-2 ATS in the regular season vs. an opponent off a SU win.  Lay the points with Green Bay.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Indianapolis/NY Giants game.  Last week, I had my Monday Night Football Total of the Year on the UNDER in the Colts/Chargers game, and was rewarded with a 20-3 Chargers victory.  The Colts managed just 69 rushing yards and 104 passing yards for the entire game.  I don’t see much more scoring here, as the Giants generally play Unders.  New York is 36-16 Under at home, including 18-5 Under when the line was less then 44 points.  And it's also 12-0 Under at home off a straight up loss.  Meanwhile, the Colts have gone 8-3 Under their last 11 on the road, and 31-18 Under off a loss.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the Under in the Colts/Chargers game.  The Colts were stunned last week by Minnesota, which roared back from a 33-0 deficit to down the Colts, 39-36.  We'll look for a much lower scoring game on Monday, as Indy has gone Under the total 47-27 at home off a loss in which it gave up 30+ points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Over in the Denver/Los Angeles Rams game. The Broncos opened the season with 11 unders in their first 12 games. And after that start to the season, the oddsmakers continually adjusted the Over/Under lines to get us to the point today where we are at. By my math, the value in Denver's Over/Unders has been on the Over the last two games, and not surprisingly, both went Over the total.  I think there's also value on the Over in this game, as the line is still just too low.  Indeed,it's been 11 seasons since the Rams have seen an Over/Under line this low. And it's tied for the lowest Over/Under line in a Broncos game over the past 11 seasons. Take the Rams & Broncos to go Over the total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Philadelphia.  We played against the Eagles last week, and cashed our NFC Underdog of the Month on the Chicago Bears.  This will be Philly's 3rd straight road game, and underdogs playing their 3rd straight road game, off back to back wins, have gone 24-37-1 ATS since 1980.  Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost, 40-34, at Jacksonville.  But the Cowboys are 25–12-1 ATS off an upset road loss, if they were playing an opponent off a SU win, including 7-0 ATS if they allowed 34+ points in that upset loss.  Take Dallas minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers Over the total.  Since trading for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense has scored 23, 31, 22, 38, 13, 33, 35 and 21 points, for an average of 27 points per game.  Before getting McCaffrey, the Niners' offense averaged 20.33 ppg.    Not surprisingly, five of San Francisco's first six games went under the total, but since the trade, it has gone OVER the total in five of eight games.  I look for another high-scoring game on Saturday.  Take Washington & San Francisco Over the total

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee.  The Titans are 7-7, but mired in a 4-game SU/ATS losing streak.  They now will be hosting a Texans team which is 1-12-1, but still playing hard, as evidenced by their last two losses to the KC Chiefs (30-24, overtime) and Dallas Cowboys (27-23).  I don't want any part of a Titans team without its #1 signal caller, Ryan Tannehill, who underwent ankle surgery, and will be unlikely to play the remainder of this season.  Tennessee will be quarterbacked this afternoon by rookie Mailk Willis.  Houston will be familiar with Willis, as he led Tennessee to a 17-10 win at Houston earlier this season (his first-ever NFL start), as a 1.5-point road favorite.  But non-winning NFL teams off a loss have covered just 34% at home vs revenge-minded foes, if they were favored by less than 7 points (or PK).  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Baltimore/Atlanta game.  The Ravens come into this game off 3 low-scoring contests vs. Denver (10-9), Pittsburgh (16-14) and Cleveland (13-3).  And each went under the total.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game, here.  But NFL games have gone OVER the total 58% over the past 43 seasons if a team didn't score 17+ points in any of its three previous games, and those 3 games went Under the total, and totaled, in the aggregate, 80 or less points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Detroit.  This is Carolina's final home game of the season, and they're off a loss to Pittsburgh where they failed to cover the spread by 11 points.  Meanwhile, Detroit’s off three straight wins, and has won 6 of 7.  We’ll take Carolina, as home teams have covered 59% of their final home games of the season if they failed to cover the spread by 10+ points in their previous game, and their opponent was off back to back wins.  Take the Panthers.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Washington/New York Giants game.  The Giants' last four games have averaged 51.75 ppg, and three of the four have gone 'over' the total.  We'll look for another relatively-high scoring game on Sunday night, as the Over falls into a 98-53 Totals system of mine.  Take the Over.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Washington.  Last week, the Giants were mauled at home by the Philadelphia Eagles, 48-22.  New York now sits with a 7-5-1 record, and would earn the 7th (and final) NFC playoff berth, based on the current standings.  We'll grab the points with New York, as it's 14-4 ATS off a home loss by 20+ points.   And it's also 27-11 ATS as an underdog of +2.5 (or more) points vs. division rivals, if New York owned a winning record.  Take the Giants.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/Cincinnati game.  We played on the Buccaneers to go Over the total last week, in their game against San Francisco, and were rewarded with a 35-7 49ers blowout.  We'll look for this game to go Over the total, as well, as Tom Brady's teams have gone OVER 11 of 14 games after scoring less than 10 points, including 6-0 OVER if they lost that previous game by 17+ points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over the Cincinnati Bengals.  Last week, Tom Brady & Co. played about as bad a game as they could have, and were destroyed by San Francisco, 35-7.  But off that 28-point blowout loss, we'll take the Bucs to bounce back on this afternoon.  Indeed, over the last 43 years, home dogs of more than 3 points that scored 7 or less, and allowed 35 or more in their previous game, have covered 62%.  We saw this situation earlier this season when Pittsburgh was blown out, 38-3, by Buffalo.  They played these Bucs in their next game, and we had a huge play on the Steelers as a 9.5-point underdog.  They won outright, 20-18.  Coincidentally, that game marked the start of Tampa's decline this season.  The Bucs were 3-2 entering that contest, but have gone 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS from that point.  Of course, the oddsmakers have significantly adjusted the numbers for Tampa, such that it's now installed as a home dog vs. Cincy.  I won't pass up this opportunity to play on Tampa, as Tom Brady's teams are 16-0 ATS their last 16 (and 25-2 ATS their last 27) off a straight-up loss, if they weren't favored by more than 1 point!  Take the Buccaneers + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Las Vegas Raiders + the points over New England.  The Raiders were upset by the Rams last Thursday night, as a road favorite, while New England won and covered as a road favorite at Arizona.  We'll take the Raiders, as teams off an upset loss as a road favorite have gone 54-33 ATS vs. foes off an SU/ATS win as a road favorite.

At 1:00 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over Philadelphia.  The Bears come into this game on a 6-game losing streak.  And they've also failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games.  We'll take Chicago as a big home dog, as it's cashed 83% over the last 43 seasons as a home underdog of +6 (or more) points, if it didn't cover the spread in its two previous games.  Even better:  the Bears had their Bye week last weekend.  And NFL teams off their Bye week have cashed 67.7% as a home dog of more than 5 points.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins to go OVER the total.  Yes, it's the month of December, and wintry weather conditions are afoot.  But the forecast for Saturday night isn't horribly bad.  There's a little bit of snowfall in the forecast, with winds in the 10 mph to 15 mph range, and a temperature of 22 degrees.  I like the Over in this game, as this is a relatively-low total for a Bills game.  Indeed, in the past three seasons only eight Buffalo games have had a lower number than what we currently see for this game.  And the Bills went OVER the total in six of those eight games.  Similarly, the Dolphins have played 30 games over the past two seasons.  Only 7 of those 30 had a lower number than this game, and Miami went Over the total in four of those seven.  Earlier this season, the number posted for the Bills game in Miami was 54; last year, the two games had lines of 48.5 and 48.  By my math, the value clearly is on the side of the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over Minnesota.  I continue to believe the Vikings are overrated.  Last week, I played on the Lions -2.5 over Minnesota as my NFC North Division Game of the Year, and the Lions shellacked the Vikings, 34-23.  This week, Minny returns home to face the well-rested Colts, who are off their Bye week.  Two weeks ago, the Colts were blown out by the Cowboys, 54-19.  But that was a highly misleading final, as the score was 21-19 with 14 minutes left in the game, before Dallas exploded for 33 points in the fourth quarter.  We'll take Jeff Saturday's men to bounce back, as Indianapolis is a wallet-fattening 32-8 ATS off a straight-up loss, if it failed to cover the spread by 8 or more points in that defeat.  Additionally, NFL teams that gave up more than 52 points in their previous game have rebounded to go 10-0 ATS their last 10 (and 21-3 ATS their last 24), provided they weren't playing a revenge-minded opponent which they beat in the same, or prior season.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks + the points over San Francisco.  The Seahawks received welcome news this week when RB Kenneth Walker III returned to practice.  And that's all we need to pull the trigger on Seattle, as it has been hampered without its top 2 running backs (Walker, Rashaad Penny) on the field.  The 49ers, of course, have their own injury problems.  WR Deebo Samuel went down last week, and will miss tonight's game.  QB Brock Purdy is questionable (though I assume he will play).  Last week, the Seahawks lost here, at home, to Carolina, as a 3.5-point favorite.  We'll take Seattle to bounce back, as winning teams are 62% ATS at home since 1980 off an upset loss, if their opponent won its previous game by more than 14 points.  With SF in off a 28-point blowout win over Tampa, grab the points with Seattle.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/San Francisco 49ers game.  Prior to acquiring star running back, Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers' offense averaged just 20.3 ppg, their games averaged 35.1 ppg, and five of the six went Under the total.  Now, since the trade, their offense is averaging 26.6 ppg, while their games have averaged 43.5 ppg, and four of the six have gone Over the total.  So, while it's true that Tampa's last four games have been low-scoring, and have gone Under the total, Tom Brady's teams have gone Over the total 29-16 off back-to-back Unders, and 12-4 following 3+ Unders.  Take the Bucs and 49ers Over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Kansas City/Denver game.  The Broncos have played their last 8 games under the total.  But I'll look for a high-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams off 6+ Unders have gone Over the total 55.4% since 1980 if the O/U line was 47 or less points.  Even better:  the Broncos have gone Over 55-32 at home when the line ranged from 42.5 to 45.5 points.  And the Chiefs have gone Over 13-5 their last 18 as a road favorite (and 70-47 Over their last 117 as a road favorite).  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Minnesota.  The Vikings come into this road game off 3 straight home games.  And unrested road teams off 3 home games — including a SU/ATS win at home the previous week — have gone 67-96 ATS since 1980.  That doesn't bode well for the Vikings here, at Ford Field.  Detroit has quietly covered its last five games.  And, at home this season, the Lions have outscored their foes 223-195, even though its opponents have included the likes of four current playoff teams (Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Seahawks), as well as the Commanders and Packers.  For the season, the Lions are 8-3 ATS, and have covered the spread by an average of 2.70 ppg (Minnesota has a negative point spread differential of -1.20).  At home, Detroit's spread margin improves to +6.71, while Minnesota's road point spread differential is minus 0.30.  The Lions lost a heartbreaker earlier this season, 28-24, but covered the number in defeat.  And they've won the last 4 ATS vs. the Vikings.  The revenge-minded team in this NFC North division rivalry which lost the season's earlier meeting has gone 26-13-2 ATS.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles.  The Eagles come into this game off back to back high-scoring home wins.  They defeated the Packers two weeks ago, 40-33.  And they blew out Tennessee, 35-10, last week.  But NFL road favorites have covered just 35.2% since 1980 off back to back home wins in which they scored more than 30 points.  That doesn't bode well for Philly in this divisional game.  Nor does the fact that the Giants are 63-40 ATS as an underdog vs. .700 (or better) foes.  Take the New York Giants + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Both of these teams were blown out last week.  The Jags lost by 26 to Detroit, while Tennessee lost by 25 to Philly.  This is the first meeting of the season between these division rivals.  They’ll also meet in the last week of the regular season.  The Titans shut out Jacksonville, 20-0, in the previous meeting last season.  And revenge-minded, road underdogs that were shut out in the previous meeting have gone 64-48 ATS in the regular season since 1980.  That bodes well for the underdog Jaguars this afternoon.  As does the fact that Tennessee is a horrible 34-54 ATS as a home favorite, priced from -3 to -12.5 points.  Take the Jaguars + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Buffalo/New York Jets game.  These two teams met earlier this season, and the Jets pulled off a huge upset, 20-17, and held the Bills to their season-low in points.  That game went Under the total of 46 by 9 points.  Today's number is lower, and the Over falls into a 113-69 Totals system of mine, which is the way we'll look here.  Additionally, the Bills are 82-55 Over the total when priced as a favorite of -4 to -11 points, while the Jets have gone Over the total 67% since 1987 when playing a revenge-minded foe it upset earlier in the year.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the OVER in the Tampa Bay/New Orleans game.  These two NFC South division rivals met earlier in the season, and the Bucs triumphed, 20-10.  The Over/Under line in that game was 43.5, so it went under the total.  I look for a much higher scoring game on Monday, as NFL games have gone OVER the total 11 straight games (and 60% since 2011) if the season's previous meeting totaled 38 or less points, and also went under the total.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Colts were upset on Monday Night Football by the Pittsburgh Steelers, 24-17.  But off that loss, we'll take Indy on Sunday night, as it's 33-8 ATS off a straight-up loss, if it failed to cover the point spread in that previous game by 7+ points.  Even better:  NFL double-digit underdogs have cashed 66.1% the past 43 years off back to back home losses, if they were playing an opponent off back to back wins.  Take the Colts + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Baltimore game.  The Broncos have played their last 7 games under the total.  But after playing 5 straight games where their defense held their opponents to less than 20 points, the Broncos have surrendered 22 and 23 points in their two previous games.  And this weekend, they're playing a Ravens team which is averaging 25.0 ppg, and has scored 20+ points in nine of its 11 games.  Baltimore will put points on the board.  And I expect a relatively-high scoring game, as NFL teams on a streak of 6+ Unders have proceeded to go Over the total 55.5%.  Take the Ravens/Broncos over the total.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Defending Super Bowl champions have never — at least not since 1980 which is when my database starts — been an underdog of +14 (or more) points….until now.  But they have done well as an underdog of +5 or more points, as they’ve gone 17-9 ATS.  And defending champs have also gone 28-15-2 ATS on the road off a loss vs. a foe off a win.  The Rams fall into two of my favorite systems, with records of 156-85 and 337-232 ATS, that play on certain losing teams off losses.  We'll grab the points with L.A.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Cards were blown out by San Francisco this past Monday in Mexico, 38-10.  But off that loss, we'll step in and take Kyler Murray & Co. this afternoon.  Indeed, home underdogs are 60.1% ATS if they gave up 38+ points in their previous game, and failed to cover the spread in that game by 10 or more points.  Additionally, Arizona is 12-0 ATS following a loss by 17 or more points, if it was playing a .500 (or worse) foe in its current game.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans over the Cincinnati Bengals.  When these two teams last met, the Bengals bounced the #1-seeded Titans out of the Playoffs.  We'll take Tennessee this afternoon, as home teams are 62% ATS when playing with revenge from an upset playoff loss, if they were off a win.  Even better:  Tennessee comes into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins over Denver and Green Bay.  And home dogs/pk are 121-90 ATS in non-division games off back to back wins.  Take the Titans.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Denver/Carolina game.  The Broncos come into this game off six straight Unders, while Carolina enters off back to back Unders.  Last week, the Broncos scored just 16 points, while the Panthers scored just three.  The result is that this O/U line is the lowest Total for the Broncos in 11 seasons, and the lowest Total for the Panthers in 12 seasons!  By my math, it's too low.  Indeed, since 1980, at Game 11 forward, NFL teams that averaged less than 15.9 ppg on offense, and whose games totaled, on average, less than 32 ppg, have gone OVER the total 65.1%.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots over the total.  The Patriots come into this game off 3 straight unders.  But the Pats have gone OVER the total 65% since 2010 if they were off 3+ unders.  Even better:  the Vikings were blown out last week by Dallas, 40-3.  But Minnesota has gone OVER the total 15 of 18 off a loss, including 7 straight off a double-digit loss.  Finally, the Over falls into two of my favorite Totals systems with records of 114-79 and 53-28.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over the Washington Commanders.  The Commanders upset the then-undefeated Philadelphia Eagles last week, 33-21, and are now 5-5 on the season.  But off that huge upset win, we'll fade Washington on the road against Houston.  Indeed, since 1980, NFL road favorites of less than 6 points (or PK) have covered just 29.6% off an upset win on Monday Night Football.  Even better:  Houston's 16-7 ATS at home off back to back losses, when not favored by more than 7 pionts vs. a foe off a win.  Take Houston + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons are 6-4 ATS this season, but all six of their ATS wins have come when they were an underdog.  Today, Atlanta is favored.  And the Falcons have been horrible as a favorite, as they’re 28-50 ATS including 6-23 ATS as a home favorite when laying 3.5 or less points.  Take Chicago + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  When we last saw the Jets, they were upsetting the Buffalo Bills as a 10.5-point road underdog.  We'll fade the Flyboys off that upset win, as winning NFL teams have cashed just 33% on the road since 1980 off a win as an underdog of more than 10 points.  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Chicago Bears/Atlanta Falcons game.  Nine of the last 11 meetings between these clubs have gone UNDER the total, and we'll look for this game to follow suit.  It's true that the Bears come into this game off 4 straight Overs.  But NFL teams off 4+ Overs tend to go UNDER the total in their next game, and especially when the line was > 46 points.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Tennessee.  We played on the Packers last Sunday as our NFC Game of the Month, and were rewarded with an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys in overtime.  We'll come right back with Green Bay tonight, as it's 64-41 ATS with Aaron Rodgers under center, as a favorite of less than 13 points vs. a foe not off an ATS loss.  Even better:  with Rodgers, Green Bay is an awesome 30-11-2 ATS at home vs. a foe off a SU/ATS win.  And, finally, the Packers are 11-3-1 ATS in Thursday games with Rodgers, including a perfect 7-0 ATS vs. a foe off a win.  Lay the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  We played on the Packers as a big underdog vs. Buffalo, and got the $$$$ with Aaron Rodgers & Co.  Unfortunately for Green Bay, it faltered last week as a favorite in the Motor City against the Lions.  Now, Green Bay has been installed as a home underdog, and we'll once again take the points with Green Bay.  Indeed, the Packers are 70-41-4 ATS in Aaron Rodgers' home starts, including 5-1-1 ATS as an underdog!  And they're 8-1 ATS (whether home or away) as an underdog off an upset loss.  Green Bay also falls into 306-202, 372-274 and 195-101 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams against superior opponents.  Finally, Dallas has covered just 33% since 1980 as a road favorite off a SU win, if they were matched up against a foe off an upset loss.  Grab the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears minus the points over the Detroit Lions.  The Bears come into this game off back to back losses to Dallas and Miami, while Detroit upset the Packers last week.  The good news for Justin Fields & Co. is that Chicago is 44-22 ATS at home off 2 or more losses, if the Bears weren’t favored by 3.5 (or more) points, including 23-6 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.  Take Chicago minus the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over New York.  After pulling upset wins in five of their first seven games, the Giants finally came back down to Earth in their last game, and were blown out by the Seattle Seahawks.  This game against Houston will be the first time this season that the Giants are favored by more than a field goal in almost 2 years!  I hate laying a lot of points with teams that are unaccustomed to doing so.  And the Giants are a horrible 4-16 ATS at home when they owned a winning record, and were favored by more than a field goal (compared to 11-1-1 ATS their last 12 at home when NOT favored by more than 3 points).  Take Houston + the points.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Tennessee Titans.  Last week, the Broncos had their bye week following their upset win against Jacksonville, 21-17.  Denver has historically been terrific in the regular season off its bye week, as it's 25-7 ATS, including 12-1 ATS when not laying more than 3 points.  Last Sunday night, the Titans almost pulled off a big upset at Kansas City, as a 14-point underdog, but ended up losing by 3 points, 20-17.  It's true that the Titans covered the spread for the 6th straight game last week.  But unrested NFL favorites, off 6 (or more) ATS wins, are a soft 56-71-2 ATS since 1980, including 6-15 ATS if they scored less than 20 points in their previous game.  Take Denver + the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New Orleans Saints.  The Steelers come into this game off a 22-point blowout loss at Philadelphia.  But the good news for Pittsburgh is that it has been dominant at home in the regular season in matchups between non-winning teams, if Pittsburgh was off a point spread loss, as it's gone 38-13 ATS, including 19-0 ATS if it lost its previous game by 18+ points.  Take the Steelers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Bears + Detroit Lions to go UNDER the total.  Detroit's first four games this season were extremely high scoring, as they averaged 70.25 ppg.  But its last four games have seen a precipitous drop-off in points, as they've averaged a mere 35.25 ppg -- which is 50.1% of the number of points scored in the first four games.  Last week, Detroit played its lowest-scoring game yet, as it defeated Aaron Rodgers & the Packers, 15-9.  I look for this game to be relatively-low scoring as well.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills minus the points over Minnesota.  QB Josh Allen has been upgraded to 'probable,' which is all I needed to pull the trigger on Buffalo this afternoon.  The Bills suffered an upset loss at the hands of the Jets last week.  But the Bills are 16-4 ATS at home off a SU/ATS loss, if they’re playing a non-division opponent off a SU win.  And they're 11-0-1 ATS vs. foes off a SU win, if the Bills owned a .600 (or better) win percentage, and were off back to back ATS losses.  Lay the points with Buffalo.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 9:30 am, in a game played in Munich, Germany, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers minus the points over Seattle.  The Bucs won last week, 16-13, vs. the LA Rams, but pushed against the spread.  And they have not covered since Week 2 vs. New Orleans.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are 4-0 SU/ATS their last four.  I'll lay the points with Tampa, as teams off back to back wins have covered just 22% of NFL games played overseas (vs. foes not off back to back wins).  That doesn't bode well for Seattle.  Even worse, teams off 3 (or more) SU/ATS wins have covered just 27% vs. foes on a 6-game (or worse) ATS losing streak.  Lay the points with Tom Brady & Co.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Atlanta Falcons.  These two NFC South division rivals went to overtime two weeks ago, and the Falcons prevailed, 37-34.  We'll take the Panthers in this rematch, as revenge-minded home teams have cashed 67.3% since 1980 if the two teams previously met within the last 2 games, and the home team wasn't favored by 2+ points.  Even better:  the Panthers are 11-1 ATS at home off a loss by 16+ points, if their current opponent wasn't a winning team.  Take Carolina.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons to go UNDER the total.  A couple of weeks ago these two teams met, and Atlanta survived to win, 37-34, in overtime.  We'll take the UNDER in this contest, as competitively-priced NFC South division games, with point spreads < 3 points, have gone under 68% if the O/U line ranged from 42 to 53 points.  Additionally, Carolina has gone UNDER 32-8 at home vs. division foes when not getting 3+ points.  Take the UNDER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs minus the points over Tennessee.  The Chiefs had last week off after blowing out San Francisco, 44-23.  In coach Andy Reid's career, his teams are 22-12 ATS when playing with rest.  They'll welcome a Titans team which has won each of its last 5 games.  Unfortunately, underdogs of +6 (or more) points, off 4+ wins, have covered just 34.2% the past 15 seasons.  Take the Chiefs minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Arizona/Seattle game.  The Seahawks blew out the New York Giants last week, and will travel to Phoenix to take on the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.  Arizona has given up 34 points each of its last two games and, not surprisingly, both went over the total.  Seattle has gone OVER 81-46-1 after winning at home in its previous game and we'll look for another high-scoring game here.  Take the OVER.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over Atlanta.  The Falcons outlasted the Panthers last week, in overtime, 37-34, while the Chargers had last week off following an upset home loss, 37-23, to the Seahawks.  We'll fade Atlanta in this game, as the Falcons are 0-12 ATS as a home dog off a home win, if matched up against a winning foe.  Additionally, rested, single digit road favorites off a loss have cashed 77% since 1980 vs. non-division foes.  Finally, the Chargers are a super 50-27 ATS off an upset loss, including 14-0-1 ATS their last 15 when they lost by > 11 points in their previous game.  Lay the points with the Chargers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Buffalo.  Green Bay lost as a road favorite at Washington to fall to 3-4 on the season.  And they've now been installed as a huge underdog at Buffalo.  This is the first time in Rodgers' career that he's been under center when the Packers were getting 9+ points.  But he's 5-2 ATS when getting more than 6 points.  And Green Bay is a super 7-1 ATS with Rodgers as an underdog off an upset loss.  And it's 5-0 ATS with Rodgers off 3 ATS losses, if Green Bay wasn't favored by more than 1 point.  Those stats bode well for Green Bay.  As does the fact that .375 (or better) NFL teams have cashed 66.1% as an underdog of more than 6 points off an upset road loss.  Take the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. 

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over the Chicago Bears.  Last Monday, Chicago upset New England as an 8.5-point road underdog.  Unfortunately for the Bears, road dogs of +8 (or more) points, off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have covered the spread in just 33% of their games since 1980.  Dallas is 12-7 ATS vs. foes off an upset win, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS when favored by 4+ points.  Meanwhile, Chicago is a wallet-breaking 14-23 ATS off an upset win, including 2-9 ATS when getting 4+ points.  Take Dallas.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Detroit/Miami game.  After starting the season with four extremely high scoring games, the Lions have played back to back low scoring games.  But those two games were on the road against Dallas and New England -- teams that play good defense.  Today, Detroit is back at home, and it's gone OVER in 20 of 28 home games following a SU loss in a game which went under the total.  Even better:  Detroit is scoring 38.67 ppg at home, by itself.  And its home games have averaged 76.33 ppg!  Combine that with the fact that Miami's road games have averaged 59.67 ppg, and we have all the ammunition we need to take the OVER in this game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over the New York Jets.  New York had a bittersweet victory last week in Denver.  Yes, the Jets prevailed in a tough, defensive game, 16-9.  But they lost RB Breece Hall for the season when he sustained a torn ACL.  To make up for Hall's absence, the Jets traded for Jaguars' RB James Robinson.  Meanwhile, the Patriots were shellacked, 33-14, Monday night, in an upset loss at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  But off that upset loss, we'll lay the points with Bill Belichick's men today.  For technical support, consider that New England is an awesome 21-0-1 ATS on the road in the regular season off a loss, if matched up against a foe off a win.  That bodes well for the Patriots today.  As does the fact that the Jets are a horrid 41-66-4 ATS at home vs. .500 (or worse) opponents.  Finally, the Pats have won 12 straight in this AFC East division series (8-4 ATS).  Take New England.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Bucs will surely be happy to be home on this Thursday, as they were blown out on the road last week by Carolina.  And they also suffered an upset road loss two weeks ago, at Pittsburgh.  The good news for Tampa tonight is that home teams have covered 65.2% over the last 43 seasons off back to back upset road defeats.  Additionally, Tom Brady's teams have gone 25-1 ATS in the regular season off a loss, if they weren't favored by 7+ points, and their opponent was off a straight-up win.  Take the Buccaneers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the New York Jets.  Russell Wilson won't be on the field today vs. the Jets, as he's out with a hamstring injury.  QB Brett Rypien will instead be under center for the Broncos.  But Wilson was the 25th-ranked quarterback through the first six weeks, so his absence won't be devastating to the Broncos.  We'll take Denver, as it's a stellar 52-19-3 ATS at home, priced from +4.5 to -2 points, including 10-0 ATS if it was off a division loss in its previous game.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over New York.  The Jaguars come into this game off 3 SU/ATS losses, but have been installed as a home favorite vs. New York.  The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, as they're 5-1 SU/ATS after their 2nd straight upset win -- a 24-20 victory over Baltimore.   But off those two upsets, we'll fade New York at Jacksonville on Sunday.  Indeed, winning teams off back-to-back upset wins have covered just 39.2% on the road vs. losing teams over the last 40+ years.  And the Giants are a poor 4-8 ATS off back to back upset wins vs. a foe off a SU loss.  Finally, over the last 40+ years, NFL teams off 3 SU/ATS losses have covered 69.5% vs. foes off 3 SU/ATS wins if our play-on team (here, Jacksonville), was not getting more than 4 points.  Lay the points with the Jaguars.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions + the points over Dallas.  Dak Prescott will make his return this afternoon for the Cowboys, but we'll still go against them this afternoon.  Detroit had last week off following a shutout loss, 29-0, at the hands of New England.  The Lions are now 1-4, but rested underdogs of +6 (or more) points, with a win percentage < .333, have covered 64.5% over the past 43 years.  And Detroit has gone 16-0-1 ATS after losing by more than 26 points in their previous game, if they were installed as an underdog of 6+ points in their current game.  Take Detroit.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Baltimore Ravens.  The Ravens have not covered the spread in any of their three previous games, and are 1-8 ATS when favored by more than 3 points, dating back to last season.  This afternoon, they'll welcome division rival, Cleveland, to M&T Bank Stadium.  We'll grab the points with the Browns, as AFC North division teams have covered 64.8% if they were getting 6+ points against a division foe not off a SU/ATS win.  Additionally, the road team has gone 27-18-1 ATS in this rivalry, including 5-0 ATS vs. a foe off an upset loss.  Take Cleveland.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over New Orleans.  The Saints are 2-4 SU/ATS this season, and have been outscored by 2.83 ppg, and have failed to cover the spread by an average of 3.33 ppg.  This will be New Orleans' 3rd road game of the season, and it's 0-2 ATS in the first two, with ATS losses to the Falcons and Panthers.  The Cardinals are also 2-4 straight-up, after being upset last week by the Seattle Seahawks.  And that was Arizona's 2nd straight defeat, as it also fell to the 6-0 Philadelphia Eagles, 20-17, two weeks ago.  But off those two losses, we'll step in and take Kliff Kingsbury's men on Thursday night.  For technical support, consider that the Cardinals are a sensational 36-13 ATS at home off back to back losses, if its opponent had a negative scoring margin.  Take Arizona.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers.  The Broncos are offensively-challenged.  They scored just nine points in last week's 12-9 loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and are averaging just 15.0 ppg this season.  In contrast, the Chargers enter tonight's game with a 24.4 ppg offensive average, and have tallied 34 and 30 points the past two weeks.  This vast offensive difference (LA is 9.4 ppg better) will keep a lot of gamblers off Denver, but not me.  Indeed, at Game 6 forward, NFL road teams that average 15 (or less) points per game, and at least 9.4 ppg less than their opponent, have gone 119-78-5 ATS, including 65-35-4 ATS if their opponent was off a SU/ATS win.  And if it's a division game, then our 65-35-4 stat zooms to 28-9-1 ATS.  That bodes well for Denver in this game.  As does the fact that AFC West division teams with a losing record have gone 141-83 ATS on the road vs. division rivals, if our road team was not favored by more than 3 points.  Finally, Denver is an awesome 11-0 ATS following games it failed to score 13+ points, if it was an underdog of 4+ points in the current game, and its opponent was off a win.  Take the Broncos.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles minus the points over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles had a winning record last season, yet lost both games to Dallas, 51-26 and 41-21.  But Philly now falls into several double-revenge systems of mine that have records of 53-28, 72-51 and 43-23 ATS.  Additionally, dating back to 1989, undefeated teams (like Philly) have cashed 63.7% at home off a point spread loss if they weren’t favored by 9+ points in their current game.  Take the Eagles minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs + the points over Buffalo.  The Bills blew out Pittsburgh last week, 38-3, to move to 4-1 this season.  KC is also 4-1 after outlasting the Raiders, 30-29.  The Chiefs are a super 23-9 their last 32 games, and are 10-1 SU their last 11 at home.  Yet they've been installed as a home underdog vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.  We'll grab the points with the Chiefs, as NFL teams that have won at least 23 of their previous 32 games, have gone 20-8 ATS when not laying more than 1 point, including a perfect 9-0 ATS if their opponent was off a win by 17+ points.  Take KC.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Arizona/Seattle game.  The Cardinals have reeled off four straight Unders after last week's 20-17 loss to the Eagles went under the total by 10.5 points.  And Arizona is also 15-4-1 UNDER on the road the past 3 seasons, including 8-0 Under when priced from -7 to +2.5 points.  It's true that Seattle surrendered 39 points to the Saints last week, and 45 to Detroit two games back.  But the Seahawks have gone under 7 of 8 after allowing 28+ points in their two previous games.  And competitively-priced NFC West division games, with point spreads of 3 points or less, have gone Under 45-18-3.  Take the Under.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Los Angeles Rams/Carolina Panthers game.  After playing two of the NFL's best defenses the past two week (49ers, Cowboys), the Rams will be ecstatic to go up against a Panthers defense which has allowed 37 and 26 points its two previous games.  Los Angeles has gone Over the total 60.3% off three straight unders.  Meanwhile, the Panthers are 40-22 Over as road underdogs, including 11-0 Over when the OU Line was between 40 and 42.5 points.  Take the Over.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Seattle.  The Seahawks' defense is giving up 30.8 ppg, which is the 2nd-worst in the NFL.  They’ve been installed as a home dog this Sunday.  But NFL home underdogs of +2 (or more) points have covered just 40.3%, at Game 5 forward, if they were giving up more than 30 points.  Take Arizona minus the points.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the New York Jets.  The Flyboys pulled off their 2nd straight upset last week when they blew out division rival, Miami, 40-17.  And they went into Pittsburgh the previous week and upset the Steelers, 24-20.  Now, they'll try to make it three-upsets-in-a-row when they travel to Lambeau Field to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Unfortunately for New York, Green Bay's coming into this game off an upset loss to the New York Giants, 27-22, in London.  Green Bay's 24-11 ATS with Rodgers under center off an upset loss, including 5-1 ATS vs. a foe off an upset win.  Lay the points with the Packers.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.