Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-10-24 | Lions v. Texans +4 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Detroit. The Lions had a huge division win last Sunday. They were 6-1 entering the game vs. 6-2 Green Bay, so the winner was going to be all alone in first place. Detroit won that game, and now has to go on the road to face a Houston team off a SU loss to the Jets on Thursday night. I’ll take Houston, as Detroit falls into a negative 9-26 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams off big division wins. Also, teams off Thursday games have had an edge over unrested foes off a Saturday, Sunday or Monday game, going 352-312 ATS. Take Houston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-10-24 | Jets -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals. The Jets will be playing this game with additional days of rest, since they last played on Thursday Night Football. And NFL teams that played on Thursday have gone 352-312 ATS vs. unrested foes that last played on Saturday, Sunday or Monday, so a slight edge to New York. Additionally, the Jets fall into several of my best NFL systems that have records of 53-18, 92-57 and 83-44 ATS since 1980. Finally, in his career as a starting QB, Aaron Rodgers' teams have gone 14-6 ATS away from home, when playing a foe off back-to-back SU/ATS wins, including 8-1 ATS when not getting more than 2 points. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-10-24 | Titans +7.5 v. Chargers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Titans won in overtime, 20-17, last week, but failed to cover the closing 3.5-point line, while the Chargers won and covered their 2nd straight game, with a 27-10 blowout of Cleveland, as a 2-point favorite. I love Tennessee + the points, as it falls into 28-3, 32-6 and 48-16 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, the Chargers are a wallet-busting 7-17 ATS off back to back point spread wins, while the Titans are a solid 20-12 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins. Finally, NFL teams (like the Chargers) off back to back covers by 9+ points, have gone 1-12-1 ATS their last 14 vs. foes off 4+ ATS losses. Take the Titans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-10-24 | Falcons v. Saints +3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Atlanta. The Saints lost their 7th straight last week, and coach Dennis Allen was fired. Darren Rizzi will serve as interim head coach. I'll take New Orleans as a home dog, as it is 69-38 ATS when matched up against .500 (or better) foes off a SU win. Also, NFL teams are 28-12 ATS in their first two games following a head coach's departure, if it occurred prior to Game 11 of a season. Take the Saints. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-10-24 | 49ers v. Bucs UNDER 50.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Bucs to go UNDER the total. The Buccaneers have played 6 straight Overs and have given up 30, 31, and 41 points in their last three games. I'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Sunday, as NFL teams that gave up 30+ points in each of their two previous games have gone UNDER the total 58% when the O/U line was 50+ points. Additionally, since Kyle Shanahan took over as head coach, the 49ers are 9-1-1 UNDER off a bye week, while the Bucs are 5-0 UNDER their last 5 when playing with a week off. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-07-24 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 53.5 | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game. Both of these teams tallied 41 points lasts week. The Bengals blew out Las Vegas, 41-24, while the Ravens routed Denver, 41-10. I'll look for a much lower-scoring game tonite, as NFL games have gone UNDER the total 60.4% since 1980 if both teams scored 38+ points in their previous game, and the O/U line was 54 points or less. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Lions v. Packers +2.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers + the points over Detroit. The Lions have won and covered 5 straight after a 52-14 blowout win over Tennessee. We'll fade Detroit as a road favorite at Green Bay, as NFL road teams off 3 SU/ATS wins are a poor 86-124-4 ATS vs. .666 (or better) foes. Even worse for Detroit: it's 1-12-1 ATS on the division road, off a home win, if it owned a win percentage greater than 0.667. Take Green Bay. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Detroit/Green Bay game. The Lions have played their last 4 games OVER the total, including a 52-14 blowout of Tennessee last week. I will look for a lower-scoring game this afternoon, as road teams off 4+ Overs have gone Under 60.2% since 1980 vs. division rivals, including 73.9% Under if they scored 40+ points in their previous game. Moreover, there is rain in the forecast today, with winds at 15 to 25 mph. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Eagles | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. This season, underdogs of +6 (or more) points started out like a house on fire, as they were 16-3 ATS through the first five weeks. They've come down a bit since, but are still 21-12-1 ATS on the season, including 7-0-1 ATS if they were off an ATS win. And, of course, the Jaguars are off a point spread win, as they covered in last week's loss to Green Bay. The Eagles are a soft 45-67 ATS when priced from -3 to -9.5 points. Take Jacksonville. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Patriots v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 40 h 3 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over New England. The Titans were demolished, 52-14 last week. And they've lost 3 straight, overall. I'll take Tennessee to bounce back off that blowout loss, as home teams have gone 7-0 ATS their last seven (and 23-6 ATS their last 29) off a loss by 38+ points, if they also lost 2 games back. Lay the points. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Dolphins +6.5 v. Bills | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 40 h 2 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins were upset by Arizona last Sunday, and were also upset by Buffalo in the season's first meeting. I'll take Miami to avenge that upset loss, as road dogs of +5 (or more) points have gone 82-49 ATS if they were upset in the season's prior meeting, including 22-9 ATS if our road dog was also off an upset loss in its previous game. Take Miami. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Cowboys v. Falcons UNDER 52 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 0 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Dallas Cowboys/Atlanta Falcons game. The Cowboys enter this game off back to back Overs, as they were blown out, 47-9, by Detroit, and lost to San Francisco, 30-24. I will take this game UNDER, as Dallas is 29-17 Under the total off back-to-back Overs, while Atlanta is 33-21 Under vs. an opponent off back-to-back Overs. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Saints v. Panthers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 60 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers to go UNDER the total. The first meeting between these two NFC South division rivals was in Week 1, and the Saints blew out the Panthers, 47-10. That game went over the total of 41.5 by 15.5 points. But prior to that meeting, these two teams had gone Under in 7 straight games. I'll look for a reversion to the norm on Sunday, as the Under falls into a 339-255 Totals system of mine, as well as another 145-87 system. Take the Under. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Patriots v. Titans UNDER 38 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans to go UNDER the total. Both of these teams come into this game off a string of Overs. The Pats have gone Over in 3 straight, while the Titans have gone Over in 2 straight, including last week's 52-14 blowout loss to the Detroit Lions. I'll look for a lower-scoring game on Sunday, as teams off back-to-back Overs that gave up more than 38 points in their previous game have gone Under 58.6% vs. foes off 3+ Overs. Take the Pats/Titans game to go UNDER. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Broncos v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 40 h 57 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over the Denver Broncos. Last week, the Broncos moved to 5-3 with a 28-14 win over Carolina, while Baltimore was upset by Cleveland, 29-24. I like the Ravens to bounce back, as they have dominated winning teams outside their division, going 84-49 ATS, including 48-15 ATS if the Ravens were not off an ATS win. Denver also falls into negative 36-102 and 62-135 ATS systems of mine. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Chargers v. Browns OVER 42 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers to go OVER the total. The Chargers went under the total of 41.5 last week vs. New Orleans, as they won, 26-8. And that was L.A.'s 6th under in their 7 games. A lot of bettors might look to play the under in this game, especially because the Browns are 5-3 under, themselves. I'm going to look for a relatively high-scoring game, as the Over falls into a Totals system of mine which has cashed 59.2% of the time. Additionally, the Chargers tend to go Under at home in non-division games (101-53 Under), but Over on the road outside the division (114-93 Over). Take the Browns/Chargers game Over the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
11-03-24 | Saints v. Panthers +7.5 | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have lost 6 straight since their 2-0 start, and have been installed as a big road favorite at Carolina. The Saints' scoring margin is -2.62 ppg, and I won't lay this many points with teams that have negative scoring margins. And especially not on the road vs. foes off back to back losses, as they've covered just 26.3% since 1980. We saw this exact situation last week, when the Jets were favored by 7 at New England, even though the Jets' scoring margin was -2.42 ppg. The Patriots won that game outright, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Carolina do the same. We'll take the Panthers + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-31-24 | Texans v. Jets -2 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Houston. The Jets are on a 5-game SU/ATS losing streak and their last two losses were both as road favorites. The Jets lost, 37-15, at Pittsburgh, as a 2.5-point favorite, and fell last week at New England, 25-22, as a 7-point fave. I'll take New York to get off the schneid tonight, as home teams have cashed 61% since 1980 off back-to-back losses as road favorites. Additionally, the Jets are 5-0-1 ATS vs. Houston in the last six meetings, when not favored by 4+ points. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-28-24 | Giants +6 v. Steelers | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -105 | 92 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Monday, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over Pittsburgh. The New York Giants mustered just 3 points last week, in a 25-point loss to the Eagles, while the Steelers went for 37 in a 22-point win vs. the New York Jets. Given the disparate results, the knee-jerk reaction might be to play on the home team in this Monday Night Football game. But I will grab the points with New York, as underdogs off losses by more than 20 points have gone 40-24-1 ATS vs. foes off wins by more than 20 points. Take the Giants. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-28-24 | Giants v. Steelers OVER 36 | Top | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 92 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/New York Giants game. Last week, in Russell Wilson's debut for the Steelers, Mike Tomlin's men racked up 37 points in a 22-point win over the Jets. And that was the most points that the Steelers scored in a win since October 18, 2020, when they blew out Cleveland, 38-7. I expect a relatively high-scoring game on Monday, and will take the OVER, as Pittsburgh has gone 75-51-2 OVER the total when the O/U line was less than 40 points, including 30-8-2 OVER when the Steelers were favored between -3.5 and -8.5 points. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-27-24 | Cowboys +5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 43 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over San Francisco. Dallas was blown out, 47-9, two weeks ago, and had last week off to lick their wounds and regroup for this huge game against San Francisco. The Cowboys have been installed as a road underdog. And NFL dogs of +4 (or more) points have cashed 72.7% ATS off losses by more than 37 points. We'll take the Cowboys on this Sunday night. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-27-24 | Panthers +10.5 v. Broncos | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -108 | 64 h 49 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Denver Broncos. The Panthers are in a tailspin, and have failed to cover the spread by 23, 12, and 22 points in their last 3 games. They're now getting more than a touchdown from the Broncos, and underdogs of more than 4 points that failed to cover the spread by 12+ points in each of their last three games, have gone 16-4 ATS their last 20, including 9-1 ATS on the road. Take Carolina. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-27-24 | Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 41.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Carolina/Denver game. The Panthers' defense is giving up 34.7 ppg this season. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for their games to go Over the total. But consider that NFL teams with horrid defenses that give up more than 34 ppg, have gone 160-106 UNDER the total. We played on Carolina/Washington UNDER last week, and got the $$$ in the Commanders' 40-7 win. We'll take the UNDER once again, as it falls into a 112-55 totals system of mine. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-27-24 | Saints v. Chargers UNDER 41 | Top | 8-26 | Win | 100 | 63 h 29 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Under in the New Orleans/LA Chargers game. The Chargers are 5-1 Under this season. And their one game which went Over -- their 23-16 win at Denver -- only did so when the Broncos kicked a FG with 1:03 left in the game. For those who follow coach Jim Harbaugh, this isn't a surprise, as the 49ers went 21-13 Under his last 2 seasons with them, as head coach. I'll look for another low-scoring Chargers game on this Sunday. | |||||||
10-27-24 | Saints +7 v. Chargers | Top | 8-26 | Loss | -100 | 63 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over the Los Angeles Chargers. The Saints were blown out in their Thursday night football game, 33-10, by the Denver Broncos. I like playing on NFL teams off huge blowout losses on Thursdays, and especially when they're installed as an underdog vs. an unrested opponent. One reason is that teams that get embarrassed are highly-motivated to redeem themselves in their next game. And when you are able to get points as a dog, and play a team which isn't as well-rested, it adds up to an advantageous situation, which has cashed north of 60% over the last 45 years. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-27-24 | Falcons v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 26 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Atlanta/Tampa Bay game. The Bucs lost their top 2 receivers when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans went down with injuries in Monday's loss to Baltimore. QB Baker Mayfield will now have to rely on rookie Jalen McMillan, ex-NY Giant, Sterling Shepard, and 2nd year-pro, Trey Palmer. Although the Buccaneers have played their last four games Over the total, including a 36-30 overtime loss at Atlanta three games ago, I expect their offense to take a major step backwards on Sunday. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-27-24 | Cardinals v. Dolphins OVER 45.5 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Arizona/Miami game. Tua Tagovailoa is set to return from the injured reserve this week, and I'll pull the trigger on the Dolphins and Cards to go Over the total. Without their star QB under center, the Dolphins' offense has sputtered in their last four games, and averaged just 10 points. Three of those four games went Under the total. For the season, Miami is averaging just 11.66 ppg. And NFL teams that average 11.66 (or less) points, and have gone Under their previous two games, have proceeded to play OVERS in their next game 66% of the time. Take the Over. | |||||||
10-21-24 | Ravens v. Bucs UNDER 50 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the game between the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Bucs. Each of these two teams comes into back to back high-scoring games that went over the total. The Ravens' last two games totaled 53 and 79, while the Bucs' previous two games went for 78 and 66. We'll look for a much lower-scoring game on Monday night, as Baltimore is 32-13 UNDER the total off back-to-back overs, including 23-6 UNDER its last 29 when the O/U line was 42+ points. Even better: NFL Monday games have gone Under 67.6% the last 41 years if both teams were off back to back overs, and each team's previous two games combined for more than 100 points. Take the Under. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-20-24 | Jets -1 v. Steelers | Top | 15-37 | Loss | -120 | 44 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Pittsburgh. Last week, the Jets lost to the Buffalo Bills, 23-20, as a 1-point home dog. I like New York to bounce back this Sunday night, as road favorites of 7 or less points (or PK) have cashed 59.1% since Sept 29, 1992 off a SU loss if they were playing a foe off a SU win. Additionally, in Aaron Rodgers’ career starts, his teams have gone 58-31-1 ATS following a point spread defeat. And Rodgers has also gone 3-0 ATS vs. the Steelers. Lay the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-20-24 | Panthers +9.5 v. Commanders | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 20 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Washington Commanders. Carolina was blown out by 18 points at home by the Falcons last week, while Washington lost by 7 at Baltimore. The Commanders are favored by more than a touchdown, which is the biggest number they’ve laid this season. Unfortunately for the Commanders, they’re 15-46 ATS when favored by more than 5 points, including 1-17 ATS when they were playing an opponent that failed to cover the spread by 10 or more points in its previous game. Take Carolina + the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-20-24 | Panthers v. Commanders UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 36 h 24 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Washington/Carolina game. Each of these two teams has played five of their six games Over the total. Of course, the reasons for this are vastly different. The Commanders' games have been going over due to an offense which has averaged 29.66 ppg, while the Panthers' games have been going over due to a defense which has given up 33.83 ppg. But teams with horrible defenses that give up more than 31 ppg tend to go under the total (371-297 UNDER), as do match-ups between teams that average 29+ points and teams that give up 29+ points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-20-24 | Dolphins +3 v. Colts | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Indianapolis Colts. Last week, the Colts upset the Tennessee Titans, 20-17, as a 2.5-point underdog. And that was the 3rd straight game that the Colts covered the point spread as an underdog. In this game, however, the Colts are favored. And NFL favorites (or PK’em teams) off 3 straight dog covers are a poor 50-71 ATS. Take Miami + the points. | |||||||
10-20-24 | Seahawks v. Falcons UNDER 51.5 | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the under in the Atlanta/Seattle game. Both of these teams come into this game off 3 straight overs. And their games last week were very high-scoring, as Seattle’s game went over the total by 11 points, while Atlanta’s game went over by 12 points. Dating back to 1980, NFL games have tended to go under the total when each team was off 3 overs, and especially if they both went over the total by 10+ points in their previous game. In that situation, the under has cashed 69 percent over the last 45 seasons. We’ll take the UNDER in Seattle/Atlanta. | |||||||
10-20-24 | Patriots +6 v. Jaguars | Top | 16-32 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
At 9:30 am, in an early game played in London, England, our selection is on the New England Patriots + the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are playing back to back games across the pond. Last Sunday, they were favored vs. Chicago, but were blown out, 35-16. They're now 0-3 ATS this season as a favorite, and 12-23 ATS their last 35. I can't trust the Jaguars when laying points, especially given they've only won 2 of their previous 12 games, straight-up. Moreover, this NFL season, underdogs of more than 5 points have gone 19-8-1 ATS, including 17-5-1 ATS away from home. We'll take the Patriots + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-17-24 | Broncos v. Saints +3 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the New Orleans Saints + the points over Denver. The Saints were blown out last week in quarterback Spencer Rattler’s first start, and lost 51-27 to the Tampa Bay Bucs. Denver also lost last week, as they fell by 7 to the Chargers as a home underdog. The Broncos are favored on the road, even though they are 9-22-1 ATS away from home when not getting 4 (or more) points. I’ll take the Saints to bounce back, as underdogs of less than 9 points have gone 39-22 ATS after giving up more than 48 points in their previous game. Take New Orleans. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-13-24 | Bengals v. Giants UNDER 47 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 21 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/New York game. I'll look for a relatively low-scoring game on Sunday night, as the Giants have gone 68-45 Under the total when the O/U line was greater than 46 points, while the Bengals are 37-10 Under on the road when the O/U line was greater than 46 points. Additionally, the Under falls into a 336-233-12 Totals system of mine. Take the Giants and Bengals Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-13-24 | Bengals -3.5 v. Giants | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the New York Giants. Cincy lost to the Baltimore Ravens, 41-38, in overtime last week, while the Giants upset the Seahawks, 29-20. We'll take the Bengals to bounce back in the Meadowlands, on Sunday night, as they're 16-8-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 8-2 ATS off a SU loss. Additionally, NFL teams off a SU loss, in which they scored more than 36 points, have covered 64.6%. Finally, over the last 45 years, the Giants have covered just 39% of home non-division games, if they were off an upset win, and their opponent was off a SU loss. Lay the points with the Bengals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-13-24 | Chargers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Chargers minus the points over the Denver Broncos. The Broncos blew out Las Vegas, 34-18, last week. They'll now host the rested Chargers, who had last week off to rest and regroup following their 17-10 loss to the defending champion Chiefs two weeks ago. I'll take Los Angeles, as the Broncos are a brutal 4-18 ATS at home off an ATS win, if they were playing a .500 (or better) foe in their current game. Additionally, each of these teams is playing the 2nd of back to back division contests. And AFC West teams have covered 62% of division games, if they were off a division loss, and their opponent was off a division win. Take L.A. minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-13-24 | Browns +9.5 v. Eagles | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are 2-2 on the season, and have been outscored by 2.4 ppg. They're now favored by more than a touchdown against Cleveland, which is 1-4 SU/ATS. I'm not a fan of laying 7+ points with teams that have negative scoring margins, and especially not against opponents with worse won/loss records, as our favorites have covered just 35.7% since 1980. This season, underdogs in the +7 to +10 price range are a staggering 7-0 SU/ATS! We'll grab the points with the Browns. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-13-24 | Jaguars +1 v. Bears | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
At 9:30 am, on Sunday morning, in a game played in London, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Chicago. The Bears blew out Carolina, 36-10, and that was their 2nd straight win and cover. I'll fade Chicago in this game across the pond, as Chicago is a wallet-crushing 35-54 ATS off a win by more than 10 points, including 2-14-1 ATS away from home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. And it is 0-8-1 ATS its last 9 after covering the spread by 10+ points in its previous game. Take the Jaguars. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-10-24 | 49ers -3 v. Seahawks | Top | 36-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over the Seattle Seahawks. We played against the Niners last Sunday, and got the $$$ when Arizona pulled off a 24-23 upset, as a 7-point road underdog. But off that big upset defeat, we'll take San Francisco to bounce back at Seattle. Indeed, the Niners are a sensational 71-33-2 ATS off an upset loss, if they were favored by 3+ points in their previous game, including 28-7 ATS if the 49ers owned a losing record off the defeat. San Francisco has also won five straight vs. the Seahawks (covering four of the five). Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Cowboys +3 v. Steelers | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys + the points over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cowboys come into this game off 3 straight ATS losses to the Saints, Ravens, and Giants, though they did win straight-up, 20-15, in the Thursday Night Football game vs. New York. We'll take Dallas to get off the point spread schneid tonight, and grab the points with the underdog. Indeed, Dallas is a solid 61.2% since 1980 off back-to-back ATS losses, if they won their previous game, straight-up (and 73% off 3 ATS losses). Also, in NFL match-ups between .500 (or better) teams, underdogs of less than 6 points off 3 ATS losses have gone 68-46-3 ATS, including 31-9-1 ATS off a straight-up win. Take Dallas + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 50 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals + the points over San Francisco. The Cardinals were favored by 3.5 at home vs. Washington last Sunday, but were blown out 42-14. Meanwhile, San Francisco smashed New England, 30-13. We'll take Arizona to rebound , as road underdogs off double-digit upset losses have covered 63% since 1980 vs. division foes off double-digit wins. That bodes well for Arizona. As does the fact that San Francisco is 4-18 ATS at home when favored against an opponent not off a win. Take the Cardinals + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Colts v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 37 h 46 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars minus the points over Indianapolis. The Jaguars have started the 2024 season with four straight losses. We did play on the Jags last week, and were rewarded with an ATS win when the Jags fell by just four points, 24-20. Here, they're favored vs. Indianapolis, and we'll lay the points, as winless teams (at Game 5 forward) have gone 83-59 ATS vs. division rivals. Take Jacksonville. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 49.5 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/Baltimore game. The Ravens have been installed as a small road favorite at Cincinnati. And when the Ravens are a road favorite, they've gone UNDER the total 50-31-2. That bodes well for a low-scoring game on Sunday. As does the fact that division games that are competitively-priced with point spreads of 3 or less, have gone 211-156 (57.4%) UNDER when the O/U line was 45 (or more) points. Take the Ravens + Bengals Under the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Dolphins v. Patriots | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins over the New England Patriots. Miami was embarrassed on Monday Night Football when they got blown out by Tennessee, 31-12, as a 2.5-point home favorite. We'll look for the Fish to bounce back on Sunday, as underdogs (or Pk'em teams) off upset losses by more than 17 points on MNF have gone 10-1 ATS. Even better: the Patriots are a poor 0-8 SU/ATS vs. losing teams. Take Miami. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Browns +3.5 v. Commanders | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -120 | 37 h 43 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Washington. The Browns were a 2.5-point road favorite at Las Vegas, but were upset by the Raiders, 20-16. They're now a road underdog at Washington, which comes into this game off back to back upset wins. We'll grab the points with Cleveland as underdogs off upset losses have cashed 60% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back upset wins. Additionally, Washington is a woeful 31-72 ATS as a home favorite (or PK) vs. opponents that don't own a winning record. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Panthers +4 v. Bears | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 42 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Chicago. The Panthers were 2-15 last season, and scored just 13 points in their first two games this season before benching QB Bryce Young. With Andy Dalton under center, the offense has looked much better, and the Panthers scored 36 at Las Vegas, and then put up 24 in defeat vs. Cincy. This week, the Panthers have been installed as a road underdog at Chicago. We'll grab the points, as Carolina is 49-30 ATS as a road dog vs. .500 (or worse) teams, including a perfect 8-0 ATS off a point spread loss, if their foe was off a SU win. Additionally, the Bears are a brutal 43-64-4 ATS off a SU/ATS win if their foe was off a SU/ATS loss. Take the Panthers. | |||||||
10-06-24 | Jets +2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
At 9:30 am, on Sunday morning (in a game played in London, England), our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over Minnesota. The Jets were upset, 10-9, by the Denver Broncos last week. But off that upset loss, we'll take New York to bounce back on Sunday. Indeed, Aaron Rodgers' teams have been terrific with him under center when coming off a SU/ATS loss, as they've gone 58-29 ATS, including 10-3 ATS as an underdog. And Rodgers' teams have also gone 56-35 ATS in his starts vs. opponents off a SU/ATS win. Take New York + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
10-03-24 | Bucs v. Falcons -1.5 | Top | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Tampa Bay. This is Atlanta's 3rd straight home game. And perhaps the 3rd time will be the charm. The Falcons didn't cover the spread two games back vs. Kansas City. And they also didn't cover the closing line last week vs. New Orleans. But home teams playing their 3rd straight home game, that failed to cover the spread in the previous two, have gone 65-42-3 ATS. Additionally, Tampa blew out Philly last week, 33-16. But road underdogs (or PK) off 14-point (or greater) upset wins have gone 111-166 ATS. Take Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-30-24 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 37 | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Tennessee/Miami game. The Dolphins come into this game off an outing where they scored just 3 points (a 24-3 loss to the Seahawks). And Miami has played each of its first three games Under the total. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low-scoring game here, especially with backup QB Tyler Huntley getting the start. But NFL teams tend to go OVER the total in Week 4 after commencing a season with 3 straight Unders, and especially when the O/U line is in the 35 to 42.5-point range (42-22-1 OVER). Indeed, yesterday, the Falcons, Steelers, Vikings and Bears all went Over the total after starting the season with 3 Unders (only the Chargers went Under on Sunday after starting with 3 Unders). Take the Titans/Dolphins OVER the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Browns +1.5 v. Raiders | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -115 | 107 h 15 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns over the Las Vegas Raiders. The Browns were upset by the New York Giants last week, 21-15. I like Cleveland to bounce back, as it’s 13-2 ATS off an upset loss when matched up against an opponent which isn’t a winning team. Also, the Raiders have been horrible at home vs. losing teams when not getting 3 or more points, as they’ve gone 24-60 ATS. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Commanders v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 42-14 | Loss | -105 | 107 h 56 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Cardinals minus the points over Washington. The Cardinals lost at home to Detroit, 20-13, last week, while the Commanders upset Cincy on Monday Night, 38-33. We’ll take Arizona to bounce back at home, as it is 35-11 ATS at home off a home loss when it wasn’t favored by 6 or more points. Take the Cardinals. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Jaguars +7 v. Texans | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 104 h 57 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Jacksonville Jaguars + the points over Houston. The Jaguars were annihilated on Monday Night Football by the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo scored touchdowns on its first 5 possessions, and had a 34-3 lead at halftime. The final score was 47-10, and the Jaguars are now 0-3 on the season. We’ll take Jacksonville to bounce back off that embarrassing loss, as underdogs have gone 48-28 ATS following a blowout loss on Monday Night Football by 20+ points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Steelers v. Colts OVER 40 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 56 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Pittsburgh/Indianapolis game. The Steelers have the best defense in the league, as they’re giving up just 8.66 points per game. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a low-scoring game here. But consider that great defensive teams with scoring averages of less than 11.6 points per game, have gone OVER the total 130-99 since 1980, at Game 4 forward. I’ll take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Vikings v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 31-29 | Loss | -115 | 104 h 55 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over Minnesota. Last week, the Vikings were a 1.5-point home dog, and they blew out Houston, 34-7. Minnesota is now 3-0 on the season. Unfortunately, undefeated teams off upset home wins by more than 20 points have gone 1-12 ATS when they weren’t favored by 4+ points. Even worse: the Vikings are 5-13 ATS on the division road when facing a foe with a .625 (or better) win percentage. We’ll fade Minnesota as a road underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Saints v. Falcons -1 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 104 h 54 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the New Orleans Saints. When these two teams last met in the final week of the 2023 season, the Saints blew out the Falcons, 48-17. We’ll take Atlanta in this game, as NFL favorites off a SU loss, who are playing with revenge from a game where they gave up 48 or more points, have gone 10-1 ATS. Take the Falcons. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +2.5 | Top | 16-33 | Win | 100 | 104 h 53 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers + the points over Philadelphia. We played on the Eagles last week, and got the $$$ when they upset the Saints on the road, 15-12. But they’re now playing their 2nd straight road game. And winning teams are a poor 68-95-5 ATS on the non-division road, if they won outright as a road underdog in their previous game, and their opponent wasn’t off a SU/ATS win. With Tampa off an upset loss to Denver, we’ll take the Bucs to bounce back here at home on Sunday. Grab the points. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Bengals v. Panthers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -105 | 104 h 53 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the UNDER in the Cincinnati/Carolina game. The Panthers have been installed as a home underdog. And they've gone 16-4 UNDER when they were a home dog. Even better: the Bengals have gone 37-9 UNDER away from home when the O/U line was greater than 46 points. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Bengals -4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 104 h 52 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over Carolina. The Bengals are one of the most disappointing teams in football, with an 0-3 record. But we’ll lay the points with Cincy and go against a Panthers team off a 36-22 upset win at Las Vegas. Indeed, winless favorites of more than 3 points have gone 28-11 ATS vs. foes off SU/ATS wins. Lay the points. | |||||||
09-29-24 | Broncos v. Jets -7.5 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -102 | 104 h 52 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets minus the points over Denver. There has only been one team to have covered as a favorite of 6 or more points this season. And that was the New York Jets last week, when they blew out the Patriots, 24-3, as a 6.5-point home favorite. But, overall, favorites of -6 or more have gone 1-12 ATS this season. Still, I like the Jets here as a big favorite, as NFL teams (like Denver) off 19-point (or greater) upset wins have gone 130-177-8 ATS in their next game. And Denver is also 0-7 ATS its last seven (and 15-30 ATS its last 45) off an upset win when playing a foe off a SU win. Take the Jets. | |||||||
09-22-24 | Lions -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 62 h 27 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Arizona Cardinals. Last week, Arizona annihilated the L.A. Rams, 41-10. But off that high-scoring win, we'll fade Arizona as a home dog on Sunday. Indeed, home teams have been poor (92-126-2 ATS) in non-division games off a win the previous week, in which they scored more than 40 points. Additionally, the Lions are 21-6 ATS under coach Dan Campbell, if their opponent was not off a SU loss. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-22-24 | 49ers v. Rams +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Rams + the points over the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams were annihilated last week, 41-10, by Arizona. But off that 31-point loss, we'll take the Rams as a huge home dog vs. San Francisco. Indeed, NFL home dogs off losses by 27 (or more) points, have gone 161-113-4 ATS since 1980. The Rams are also a solid 21-14-3 ATS off a SU loss. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always. Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-22-24 | Panthers +5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 36-22 | Win | 100 | 62 h 4 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over Las Vegas. The Panthers have been the worst offense in football to start the season. They scored just 10 points in Week 1 and managed only 3 last week in their 2nd game. Andy Dalton will get the start at QB this week for the Panthers, and we'll take the underdog, as teams that start the season 0-2 SU/ATS, while not scoring more than 10 points in either game, have gone 17-7 ATS in Week 3. Additionally, teams (like the Raiders) off an upset win as an 8-point (or greater) underdog, have gone 44-59-3 ATS vs. foes off back to back losses. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-22-24 | Eagles +3 v. Saints | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 59 h 0 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles + the points over New Orleans. The Saints have been the most impressive team thus far, with blowout wins over the Panthers and Cowboys. And New Orleans has scored 93 points across those two games. But teams off back to back high scoring SU/ATS wins, in which they tallied 35 (or more) points in each game, have covered just 42 of 100 vs. foes off a SU loss. With Philly, indeed, off an upset loss to the Falcons this past Monday, we'll grab the points with the Eagles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-22-24 | Chargers v. Steelers OVER 35.5 | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 59 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Pittsburgh Steelers/Los Angeles Chargers game. Both the Chargers and Steelers come into this game playing great defense. Los Angeles held the Raiders to 10 and the Panthers to 3, while the Steelers held Atlanta to 10, and Denver to 6. Teams that opened the season with 2 strong defensive games, and held each of their two opponents to 15 (or less) points, have gone OVER the total 71% since 2007. Take the Steelers/Chargers OVER. | |||||||
09-22-24 | Packers v. Titans OVER 38 | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 59 h 59 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Green Bay/Tennessee game. Last Sunday, the Packers upset the Indianapolis Colts, 16-10, as a 2-point home underdog. This week, Green Bay will travel to Nashville to play a Titans team which lost its first two games by the identical score of 24-17. Green Bay is 65-37 OVER the total after not scoring 17+ points in its previous game, while Tennessee is 59-41 OVER the total off a point spread loss. Take the OVER. | |||||||
09-22-24 | Giants v. Browns OVER 38 | Top | 21-15 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the New York Giants/Cleveland Browns game. The defenses of these two teams have not played well thus far. The Browns' defense is allowing 23 ppg (ranking #23), and gave up 33 to Dallas (which only scored 19 vs. New Orleans). Meanwhile, the Giants are allowing 24.5 ppg (ranking #26). By my math, this Over/Under line is too low, and the value is on the OVER. Additionally, the Browns are 9-3 OVER the total off a win, and the OVER also falls into 82-35 and 60-18 Totals system of mine. Take the OVER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-15-24 | Bengals +6 v. Chiefs | Top | 25-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The Bengals suffered the biggest upset loss in Week 1 when they lost to the Patriots as a 7.5-point favorite. But teams that get upset in Week 1 as favorites of more than 6 points tend to bounce back in Week 2, and have gone 27-10 ATS. Additionally, the Bengals are an awesome 14-2 ATS as an underdog of more than 2 points. Take Cincy. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-15-24 | Bucs v. Lions -7.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
Interestingly, this is the 2nd straight week that the Detroit Lions will be playing an opponent it defeated in last year’s playoffs. Last week, Detroit covered by a half-point in overtime vs. the Rams. And I also like Detroit to cover the spread in this home game vs. Tampa Bay, which blew out Washington, 37-20, last Sunday. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 21-5-1 ATS when playing an opponent not off a straight-up loss. And teams playing their road openers at Detroit have gone just 12-23-1 ATS, including 4-12-1 ATS off a win by 17+ points. Take the Lions. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-15-24 | Browns +3.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 18-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Jacksonville. The Browns were upset at home by the Dallas Cowboys, 33-17, in Week 1. I like playing on road teams in Week 2 off double-digit upset losses, as they have bounced back to cover 65.3%. Take Cleveland + the points. | |||||||
09-15-24 | Saints v. Cowboys -5.5 | Top | 44-19 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over New Orleans. The Saints had the biggest margin of victory in Week 1, with a 37-point triumph over Carolina. Now, they’re getting a whopping 6.5 points from Dallas. The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab those points with the Saints. But be careful, as teams off a 20-point (or greater) win in Week 1 are 0-9 ATS their last nine (and 24-42-6 ATS since 1982) when not favored by more than 3 points. I’ll lay the points with Dallas. | |||||||
09-15-24 | Giants +1.5 v. Commanders | Top | 18-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over the Washington Commanders. Washington has long been horrible at home vs. non-winning teams, if Washington wasn’t an underdog of 2 or more points. In this situation, Washington has gone 35-81 ATS. The Giants were a 1-point home favorite last week and were blown out by Minnesota, 28-6. I’ll take New York to bounce back, as division road underdogs off an upset loss by more than 10 points have gone 109-69 ATS. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-08-24 | Steelers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 18-10 | Loss | -118 | 84 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over Pittsburgh. The Atlanta Falcons have not had a winning season since 2017, while Pittsburgh has never had a losing season in Mike Tomlin's 17 years as the head coach. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Tomlin's 17-season streak ended this year. We'll lay the points with Atlanta, as NFL teams off back to back losing seasons have covered 80% over the last 43 years in Week 1, when favored (or PK) vs. an opponent off back to back winning seasons. The Falcons are an awesome 19-6 ATS in their home openers, while the Steelers have started the season off slowly, going 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 season openers. Lay the points with Atlanta. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
09-08-24 | Panthers +4 v. Saints | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -108 | 84 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the New Orleans Saints. Last season, the Panthers lost both games to their division rival, including a 20-17 defeat in their home opener, and 28-6 in December. I like playing on revenge-minded underdogs (or PK) in the season opener, as they've cashed 55.2% over the last 34 years. Even better, if our team lost the previous game to its opponent by double-digits, and is now getting more than 3 points in Week 1, our revengers have cashed 62%. The road team has dominated this division rivalry, with a 29-16-2 ATS record, including 20-8 ATS as an underdog, 14-3-1 ATS with revenge. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
02-11-24 | 49ers -125 v. Chiefs | Top | 22-25 | Loss | -125 | 122 h 29 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers (on the moneyline), to win the game, straight-up, over the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a rematch of the 2020 Super Bowl won by the Chiefs, 31-20, as a 1.5-point favorite. Since then, the two teams have met once. And that was last season, in San Francisco, in RB Christian McCaffrey's first game as a 49er following the trade with the Carolina Panthers. The Chiefs were favored by 1 point, and won, 44-23. Kansas City is, without a doubt, playing its best football of the season. It won impressively at Buffalo and Baltimore to reach this game. And it has been well-chronicled how well the Chiefs have performed in the underdog role (17-4-1 ATS, including 15-1-1 ATS away from home). But the 49ers have also excelled in the role of small favorite. San Francisco is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS when favored by less than 4 points. And it has covered the spread in those games by an average of 16.25 ppg. Notably, six of those seven games involved opponents that qualified for the playoffs. The 49ers have also been terrific against teams off upset wins (8-1-1 ATS) and against opponents off back-to-back wins (59-39-3 ATS). And, while it's true that the Niners failed to cover the spread in their three previous games, the Chiefs are 1-10 SU and 2-8-1 ATS as underdogs vs. foes off 3 ATS losses! Even better: NFL Playoff teams that weren't getting 3+ points, have gone 0-9 ATS if they covered their previous game by 10+ points, and their opponent was on a 3-game (or worse) ATS losing streak. The 49ers will no doubt be prepared for Steve Spagnuolo's blitz packages. And Brock Purdy led the NFL, statistically, this season when facing a blitz. He ranked #1 with 9.9 yards per attempt, and also had the best QB rating (127.9). I will take the 49ers to win the game, straight-up, on the moneyline. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 147 h 11 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Detroit. This is the 49ers' 3rd straight game at home, and they failed to cover the point spread in the first two (with a 21-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, and a narrow 3-point win last week vs. the Green Bay Packers). I think the 3rd time will be the charm, as NFL home favorites have covered 65.9% since 1980 off back to back ATS losses at home. Even better for San Francisco: its defense ranked among the top 3 in points allowed (17.5) in the regular season, while Detroit's defense ranked in the bottom 10 (23.2). Detroit was especially poor against the pass, as its defense ranked next-to-last in passing yards per attempt (7.8). In contrast, the 49ers ranked #5, and gave up just 6.4 yards per pass attempt. In NFL Conference Championship games, road teams that give up more than 19.3 ppg have covered the spread just 33% of the time. And, finally, Detroit is a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS on the road if it owned a win percentage of .700 (or better), and it won its previous game, including 0-10 ATS its last 10, if it was an underdog of +5 or more points. Take the 49ers minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills OVER 46 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 11 m | Show |
At 6:30 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills OVER the total. Last week, the Chiefs held the high-octane Miami Dolphins' offense -- which was averaging 29 ppg -- to just 7 points. And that game went under the total of 43.5. But NFL teams that hold a Playoff opponent to 20+ points less than their scoring average (and went Under the total in that win), have proceeded to go 12-0 OVER the total in their next game. Moreover, after its 31-17 win against the Steelers, Buffalo's home playoff games have now gone 11-1 Over when the line was 48 or less points. Take the Chiefs and Bills Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions OVER 48 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 131 h 40 m | Show |
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Bucs to go OVER the total. This game will be played at Ford Field, which is an enclosed stadium. And enclosed stadia tend to be higher scoring as they're not exposed to the (sometimes) inclement weather, and have gone Over the total 59.5 percent since 1980. That's one reason I favor a high-scoring game. Another is that Detroit has gone 18-2 Over at home if it wasn't off a game which went Over the total (including 12-0 Over if the O/U line was 47+ points). Take the Lions and Bucs Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-21-24 | Bucs v. Lions -6 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 131 h 39 m | Show |
At 3 pm, on Sunday, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Tampa Bay. We played on Detroit last week as a 3-point home favorite and unfortunately lost, as Detroit won that game, 24-23. We'll come right back with Dan Campbell's men in this Divisional round game. The Lions are a super 18-5 ATS under Campbell if their opponent wasn't off a straight-up loss. Additionally, Tampa Bay has held its last two opponents (Eagles, Panthers) to 9 combined points. And NFL teams have covered just 31% in the Playoffs after not giving up 10+ points in either of their two previous games. Take Detroit to blow out the Buccaneers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -10 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 112 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the San Francisco 49ers minus the points over Green Bay. The 49ers had last week off following their 21-20 loss to the LA Rams, as a 6-point home favorite, to end the regular season. Meanwhile, the Packers went into Dallas and shocked the Cowboys last week, 48-32, as a 7-point road underdog. Unfortunately, it's tough to pull off two road upsets in a row in the Playoffs. We'll fade Green Bay, as NFL road teams, with a sub-.666 record, have cashed just 40% on the post-season road since 1980, if they won as a road dog in the Playoffs the previous week. Even worse for Green Bay: the 49ers are 70-31 ATS off an upset loss, if the 49ers were favored by 3+ points in their previous game. Take San Francisco minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-20-24 | Texans v. Ravens -9 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 108 h 8 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens minus the points over Houston. We had a big play on the Texans last Saturday, and were rewarded with a 45-14 blowout win. We also played against Baltimore in its last game, and got the $$$ with the Steelers, when they defeated the Ravens, 17-10. Here, however, we'll take the Ravens and fade Houston off its 31-point victory. Indeed, underdogs of +5 to +15 points, off a win by 28+ points, have gone 0-13 ATS vs. foes off a straight-up loss. That doesn't bode well for Houston. Nor does the fact that the Ravens are a spectacular 45-14 ATS when playing a non-division foe that owns a winning record, if the Ravens weren't off an ATS win. And Houston is a horrible 22-39-3 ATS off an upset win. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs OVER 43 | Top | 9-32 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to go OVER the total. Last week, the Tampa Bay Bucs won, 9-0, at Carolina. Off that extremely low scoring game, we'll look for a bounce higher tonight. Indeed, NFL games have gone OVER the total 62-40-3 when the line was < 46 points, if a team's prior game totaled less than 14 points (including 4-1 Over in the Playoffs). Likewise, Tampa has gone Over the total 16 of 21 at home following a low-scoring game which totaled 28 points or less. Finally, the Eagles are 31-11 Over the total when the line was 44 < points, if the Eagles scored less than 24 points in their previous game. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total. The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range. This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward. I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over. Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less. Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills OVER 36.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 45 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers to go Over the total. The weather forecast for Buffalo, NY on Sunday is calling for winds in the 15 to 25 mph range. This has caused the O/U line to be adjusted downward. I think the move has been too severe, and that there's value on the over. Buffalo's home playoff games have also tended to be relatively high scoring, as the Over has cashed 10 straight when the O/U line was 44 points or less. Likewise, the Steelers are 15-1 Over their last 16 Playoff games (and 24-6 Over their last 30) when the O/U line was 44 points or less. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-14-24 | Rams v. Lions -3 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -115 | 155 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles went into San Francisco and upset the 49ers last Sunday, 21-20, while Detroit downed the Minnesota Vikings, 30-20. The Lions have excelled since Dan Campbell took over as head coach. They've gone 21-13 SU and 24-9-1 ATS, including an awesome 16-2-1 ATS vs. foes that didn't have a losing record. On Sunday night, the Lions will welcome the Rams to Ford Field for Detroit's first home playoff game in 30 years. This will be the Rams' 3rd straight road game, and NFL single-digit dogs off an upset win, and playing their 3rd straight road game have covered just 35.7% since 1980. Additionally, the Rams are a poor 14-29 ATS off back to back wins (including 1-7 ATS off an upset win). Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7.5 | Top | 48-32 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 39 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Green Bay. The Cowboys annihilated their opponents here, at home, this season. Dallas went 8-0 and covered the point spread by an average of 12.87 ppg! Dating back to last season, the Cowboys' home win streak is 16 games, and it's gone 12-4 ATS, and has covered the spread in those home games by 9.78 ppg. Green Bay was 4-5 ATS on the road this season (but 1-5 ATS in non-division road games, compared to 3-0 ATS vs. its division rivals). Dallas and Green Bay did meet last season at Lambeau Field, and the Packers came away with a 31-28 victory. Unfortunately for the Packers, revenge-minded favorites of -7 (or more) points have covered 67% in the NFL Playoffs. Take Dallas minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-13-24 | Dolphins +4 v. Chiefs | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -114 | 131 h 24 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Kansas City. The Chiefs' offense was a mess for much of the season, and it finished the regular season with an offensive average of 21.82 ppg. In contrast, Miami averaged 29.0 ppg. To put Kansas City's number into context, it averaged 35.31, 28.18, 29.56, 28.23, and 29.17 ppg over the previous five seasons. We'll grab the points with the Dolphins as underdogs have cashed 67% the last 44 seasons in the Playoffs, if their offense averaged 4.30+ ppg more than their opponent. Take Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans +3 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 128 h 45 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Cleveland. The Texans punched a spot into the Playoffs with a road win at Indianapolis, while Cleveland rested many of its players, and mailed in its game at Cincy last week, with a 31-14 loss. These two teams met here, in Houston, three weeks ago, and the Browns were victorious, 36-22. We'll take Houston to avenge that loss, as revenge-minded NFL home teams have cashed 69% in the Playoffs if the two teams recently met within the three previous games. Even better: the Browns are a wallet-breaking 0-12 ATS off a SU/ATS loss if it defeated its opponent earlier in the season. Grab the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bills v. Dolphins UNDER 50 | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 106 h 40 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Under in the Buffalo/Miami game. Buffalo has been installed as a road favorite. And it's 8-0 Under its last eight as a road favorite of less than 6 points, while Miami is 42-21 Under at home when playing with revenge. Take the Under. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bills v. Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -120 | 76 h 5 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins were blown out last week by Baltimore, 56-19. But winning teams, off a loss by more than 7 points, have covered 86% as home underdogs since 1980, if they were playing with revenge. And the Dolphins do, indeed, have revenge, since Buffalo blasted them by 28 points earlier this season. I'll take the points with the home underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 35 | Top | 13-12 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers to go Over the total. The Chiefs are not incentivized to win, so they will turn to QB Blaine Gabbert to line up under center for this game, while Patrick Mahomes will be on the sidelines. The line has been adjusted, of course, to compensate for the players who won't be available, but I think there's significant value now on the Over, as it falls into a 24-4 Totals system of mine. Additionally, the Chargers have gone Over the total 14 of the last 17 years in their final game, while KC has gone 6-2 Over in their final road game. Take the Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 42 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Atlanta/New Orleans game. The Over falls into a 67-36 Totals system of mine, and I look for a relatively high scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Take the Over. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 37.5 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Over in the Carolina/Tampa Bay game. The Panthers and Buccaneers both played poorly on offense last week. Carolina was shutout, 26-0, by Jacksonville, while Tampa mustered just 13 points in a 10-point home loss to New Orleans. I expect a higher scoring game this week, as NFL games tend to go over the total more often than not when both teams scored less than 14 points in their previous game. And the Over also falls into a 109-58 Totals system of mine. Take Carolina/Tampa Over. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Vikings +3 v. Lions | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 18 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Vikings + the points over Detroit. These two teams met two game ago in Minneapolis, and the Lions came away with a 30-24 victory. The story of that game was 4 interceptions thrown by Vikings QB Nick Mullens. That led to Mullens being benched for last week's game vs. Green Bay. But after the Vikes trailed 23-3 at halftime, coach Kevin O'Connell had second thoughts and inserted Mullens into the game to replace the ineffective Jaren Hall. Mullens played better vs. Green Bay, as he was 13-of-22 for 113 yards and a TD. But it was not enough as the Vikes fell, 33-10. It's unclear who will start at QB for Minnesota in this game, which it must win if it is to have any shot at the Playoffs. But regardless of who is under center, we'll take the road underdog, as Minnesota falls into a 152-77 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses. Grab the points with the Vikings. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Browns v. Bengals -6 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 98 h 17 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cincinnati Bengals minus the points over the Cleveland Browns. Cincy lost at Cleveland, 24-3, to open the season. We'll take the Bengals to close out the season with some payback, as Cleveland is a poor 5-21 ATS vs. revenge-minded foes that Cleveland defeated earlier in the season. Additionally, the Bengals are 25-9 ATS in their final home game of the season, if they weren't laying more than 7 points. Take Cincinnati. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Jaguars v. Titans +5.5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 17 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Tennessee Titans + the points over Jacksonville. Last week, the Titans were blown out, 26-3, by Houston, while the Jaguars shut out Carolina, 26-0. We'll take Tennessee to bounce back, as NFL home dogs (or PK) have cashed 64% since 1980 off a loss by 23+ points, if their opponent was off a win by 23+ points. Take Tennessee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bucs v. Panthers +4.5 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 58 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Panthers + the points over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Panthers were shut out, 26-0, by Jacksonville. I look for Carolina to bounce back as teams off shutout losses have gone 66-40 ATS when priced from +3.5 to +9.5 points. Even better, over the last 44 years, home underdogs have cashed 58.0 ATS in the last 3 weeks of the season, if they were off an SU/ATS loss. Finally, the Panthers fall into 145-67, 84-25 and 157-72 ATS systems of mine. Grab the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-06-24 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-19 | Win | 100 | 62 h 52 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans Under the total. These two teams met earlier this season. The Over/Under for that game was just 40 points. And it went over the total, as the two teams combined to score 51. This O/U line is significantly higher than the first meeting. I think it's too high. The Indianapolis Colts have not played a game with an Over/Under line this high in any of their last 30 games. And the Texans have only played two games this season with an over/under line north of 47 points. Both of those were 48, and Houston went under the total in each game. The Texans are 10-6 Under this season, and are 46-35 Under when the line was greater than 47 points. And the Colts are 86-59 under at home vs. division rivals, including 26-15 Under if the season's first meeting went Over the total. Take the Under. Good luck as always...Al McMordie. | |||||||
01-06-24 | Steelers -3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 136 h 8 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, on Saturday, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Steelers minus the points over the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are 13-3 SU and 11-5 ATS, and will be the #1 seed in the AFC following their 56-19 blowout of the Miami Dolphins. The Steelers are still in the running for the Playoffs. And though they can still get in with a loss (if the Broncos win and the Jaguars lose), their chances will be greatly improved with a win. We'll lay the points with Pittsburgh, as it's 81-34 ATS vs. foes that scored 23+ points in their previous game, if that foe owned an ATS win pct. of .400 (or better). Additionally, Baltimore is 2-10 ATS at home vs. the rival Steelers, if Baltimore had a winning record ATS. Lay the points with Pittsburgh. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Nick Parsons | $1,300 |
Sean Higgs | $1,232 |
Jim Feist | $1,101 |
Bobby Wing | $830 |
Zack Cimini | $827 |
Bobby Conn | $765 |
Ricky Tran | $722 |
Tom Macrina | $629 |
Doc's Sports | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $585 |