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PREMIUM PICKS & BEST BETS
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-17-19||Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5||4-5||Loss||-130||12 h 21 m||Show|
Despite losing yesterday to the Blue Jays, the Red Sox have beaten Toronto 13 of the past 18 times at Fenway Park. I like the Red Sox's chances so much in a pitching matchup of Aaron Sanchez versus lefty Edduardo Rodriguez that I'm laying Boston on the run line. Sanchez is 3-13 with a 6.22 ERA. He should not be in any team's starting rotation. Sanchez has lost nine straight games. The Blue Jays are 5-18 the past 23 times Sanchez has faced an above .500 opponent. Rodriguez is 4-0 during his past four starts. He is 4-1 with a 3.95 ERA in nine home starts this year. Boston is 23-5 the last 28 times Rodriguez has pitched at home against a foe with a losing record. Toronto is 10-29 in its last 39 games when going against a southpaw starter.
|07-17-19||Mets v. Twins -165||Top||14-4||Loss||-165||11 h 6 m||Show|
If the Twins lose here, it will be their third loss in a row. That hasn't happened all season. I don't see in occurring here especially at home to the Mets. Minnesota is 28-16 at home. The Twins are 27-9 following a loss. The Mets have lost 27 of their last 38 road games. The Twins draw 36-year-old Jason Vargas, who has given up six homers in his last five starts. Minnesota leads the majors in homers and ranks No. 2 in runs. The Mets go against lefty Martin Perez, who is far from outstanding but is reliable enough to keep the Mets in check. Perez is 4-2 with a 3.71 ERA at home this season. The Mets are 9-12 versus lefthanded starters.
|07-16-19||Diamondbacks v. Rangers UNDER 10.5||Top||9-2||Loss||-125||15 h 2 m||Show|
Lance Lynn to win the AL Cy Young Award? Don't laugh. Lynn is in the discussion. The right-hander has the most wins in the league and is eighth in strikeouts. Lynn is in great form, too, with a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts spanning 22 innings. Lynn has 26 strikeouts during this time frame. The Under is 8-2 in Lynn's last 10 starts. Arizona's team batting average is 40 points lower when facing righthanders instead of southpaws. Lynn is 6-0 lifetime versus the Diamondbacks with a 2.80 ERA in 12 appearances, including 10 starts. The Diamondbacks have scored an average of just 3.4 runs in their last five games. Rookie lefty Alex Young is slated to start for Arizona. This will be his third big league start. So far he has been great with a 2-0 record and 0.68 ERA giving up three hits in 13 1/3 innings. The Rangers rank last in batting average against lefthanders hitting just .233 against them. The Rangers play in an outstanding hitter's park. But some of that edge is negated by the weather forecast calling for winds of 10-to-11 mph blowing in.
|07-15-19||White Sox -117 v. Royals||Top||2-5||Loss||-117||6 h 11 m||Show|
Lucas Giolito has become an elite pitcher this season. He has dominated the Royals going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts this season. Giolito is 6-0 versus the Royals for his career with a 2.13 ERA. The White Sox have won 10 of Giolito's last 13 starts. Royals starter Jakob Junis last won on May 30. He has a 5.33 ERA this year and a 5.34 career ERA against the White Sox in five starts. Chicago is the better hitting team, too. The White Sox have defeated the Royals in five of the last six meetings.
|07-14-19||Tigers +136 v. Royals||12-8||Win||136||9 h 52 m||Show|
There are three teams in the American League I would grade an F: Orioles, Tigers and Royals. So, from a value standpoint, I'm compelled to take this price in a meeting of two "F" teams especially when the favored Royals are pitching Homer Bailey. Bailey actually has been pitching well recently. But he's still Homer Bailey and he carries a 5.44 day time ERA. The Royals are going for a three-game sweep of the Tigers. They are 6-21 following a victory. Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann is overdue for a victory. He was hammered by the Red Sox in his last start. However, he held the Nationals to one run on four hits in six innings during his prior start before Boston.
|07-14-19||Tigers v. Royals UNDER 10||12-8||Loss||-106||9 h 51 m||Show|
Normally you would think Over in a pitching matchup of Jordan Zimmerman versus Homer Bailey. Not this time, though. Zimmerman was very sharp against the Nationals two starts ago holding them to one run in six innings. He could finally be healthy. Zimmerman is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine lifetime appearances against the Royals, including eight starts. Bailey is pitching his best ball of the season with a 2.83 ERA in his last six starts. He has a 2.36 career ERA versus the Tigers in four starts. Keep in mind, too, these are two of the worst offenses in baseball. The Tigers rank in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and homers. They are averaging three runs in their last three games. The Royals rank 28th in homers and 26th in run. They are averaging 3.5 runs in their last four games. The weather forecast is for a slight wind blowing in.
|07-13-19||Giants v. Brewers UNDER 8.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-101||12 h 30 m||Show|
These teams are coming off a wild 10-7 Giants victory on Friday. I see this game being quite the opposite in a pitching matchup of Madison Bumgarner versus Zach Davies. Bumgarner isn't an elite pitcher anymore, but he's still above average and in good form. Bumgarner has given up three runs on seven hits in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. He has 20 strikeouts during this time frame. Bumgarner has a strong history against the Brewers with a 7-4 mark and 2.76 ERA. Milwaukee has scored four or fewer runs in 10 of its past 14 games. Davies is in solid form, too, yielding one run in his last two starts spanning 10 1/3 innings. Davies has a career 2.81 ERA versus the Giants in three appearances. The Giants rank 30th in batting average and 27th in runs. The Under is 12-4 in Davies' last 16 home starts. It's a plus for the Under if the roof is closed at Miller Park. It's still good for the Under if the roof is open because the forecast is for wind to be blowing in at eight mph.
|07-13-19||Tigers -103 v. Royals||1-4||Loss||-103||11 h 26 m||Show|
This is a huge start for Matthew Boyd, who is coming off a 13-strikeout, no-walk performance against the White Sox. The lefthanded Boyd is a prime trade candidate. The Tigers usually are alert and up for games when he pitches knowing he gives them a rare opportunity to win.The Royals are 17-28 at home. They are 8-17 when facing a lefty starter. The Royals have the lowest slugging percentage against southpaws in the American League. Kansas City is slated to start Brad Keller, who has a 4.47 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Keller walked five batters in 5 2/3 innings during his last start eight days ago against the Nationals. Keller said hot, humid conditions contributed to his giving up so many walks. Keller said, "Every time I went to the set, my hand and arm were dripping wet. At the end, I just went to my sinker - that's the only pitch I could sort of command." Temperatures for this game are forecast to hit 90 degrees. So Keller figures to have control problems again. The Tigers should be expecting plenty of sinkers, too.
|07-13-19||Calgary v. Hamilton -3.5||23-30||Win||100||28 h 18 m||Show|
Hamilton should be going all out after suffering an embarrassing, 36-29, to Montreal as 14-point road favorites last week. The Tiger-Cats draw Calgary coming off a smashing 37-10 road upset win against Saskatchewan last Saturday. The Stampeders won that game despite being without their star quarterback, Bo Levi Mitchell, who is out again this week with a shoulder injury. This is the Stampeders' second straight road game going with backup QB Nick Arbuckle. Hamilton is the No. 1 offensive team in the CFL. Calgary has multiple defensive injuries on its front line. It's difficult to envision the Stampeders defense keeping the Tiger-Cats' top-notch offense under control especially after last week's tremendous road effort. The Tiger-Cats have won and covered both of their home games this year holding Saskatchewan and Montreal to a combined 27 points in those two games.
|07-13-19||Mets -130 v. Marlins||4-2||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
Better starter, better closer and stronger offense. The Mets hold those edges against the Marlins.Noah Syndergaard is coming around for the Mets, who finally figured out to start catcher Tomas Nido when Syndergaard pitches. Syndergaard is having a down year, but has shown signs of coming around. Talent isn't the issue with him. That's where the steadying influence of Nido helps. It is better for the Mets they go with Nido's defense rather than Wilson Ramos' offense when Syndergaard is on the mound. New York has won the past four times Syndergaard has pitched. Syndergaard has been dominating versus the Marlins going 6-1 with a 1.74 ERA in nine starts against them spanning 62 innings. Edwin Diaz gives New York an edge at closer. The Mets average one run more per game than the Marlins, who are starting rookie Zac Gallen. This will be Gallen's fourth big league start. He allowed three runs in five innings in a loss to the Nationals during his previous start on June 26. Gallen has potential and the Marlins are willing to live with his mistakes as he gains major league experience. Marlins manager Don Mattingly admitted this saying about Gallen, "There's going to be a learning curve from game to game." The Marlins have lost 12 of their last 17 home games.
|07-12-19||Braves -107 v. Padres||5-3||Win||100||17 h 58 m||Show|
Dinelson Lamet gets some love because he can strike out a lot of hitters. I admit to being intriguied by his potential. But he's a young pitcher, who doesn't win and is on the comeback trail. The Braves are the superior team and have the better starter going with crafty veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel. Atlanta is 18-8 in its last 26 road games. San Diego has a losing home record. So I find this a nice value price to back Atlanta. Lamet is making just his second big league start in two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Before his injury, Lambet was 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA. He struck out 33 in 24 innings during six minor league rehab starts. He also yielded 16 runs in those 24 innings. San Diego has lost in each of Lamet's past eight starts. Keuchel has been solid in four starts with the Braves not allowing more than three earned runs during any start. He's given up up four runs on 10 hits during his last two outings spanning 14 1/3 innings. The Padres rank 13th out of 15 National League teams in batting average against lefthanders. They have a losing record versus southpaw starters. The Braves have established themselves as the second-best team in the National League winning 24 of their last 34 games.
|07-12-19||Reds v. Rockies -117||2-3||Win||100||15 h 24 m||Show|
I don't like the Reds on the road and I'm not buying that Sonny Gray has transformed back into being an All-Star caliber pitcher. I do buy into the Rockies being a tough home team and Jon Gray knowing how to pitch effectively at Coors Field. Statistics back this up. The Reds are 17-25 on the road. Colorado traditonally has been very strong at Coors. The Rockies are 24-19 at home this season. Righthanded Jon Gray is 4-1 with a 3.35 ERA in eight games at Coors, including seven starts. Cincinnati is 17-35 in its last 52 away games versus a righty starter. Sonny Gray is facing a Rockies club that is batting .312 at home. That's 33 points higher than the second-best team's home batting average. The Rockies also are No. 1 in the majors in home slugging percentage, OPS and OBP.
|07-12-19||Astros -1.5 v. Rangers||Top||8-9||Loss||-126||17 h 39 m||Show|
I want the Astros going for me coming off a 5-0 shutout loss to Lance Lynn and the Rangers Thursday night. The Astros are back healthy with the exception of Carlos Correa. They drop way down in class going from facing Lynn to journeyman Jesse Chavez, who I consider more of a relief pitcher than starter Chavez will be making his fourth start. He's getting worse having allowed seven earned in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He is off a season-high 90-pitch count. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors, while the Astros' relief corps is among the best. Astros starter Gerrit Cole was the AL Pitcher of the Month in June. He is 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last eight starts with 70 strikeouts in 51 innings. The Rangers are really missing injured Hunter Pence. They are averaging just 3.7 runs in their last 11 games discounting a 9-3 Fourth of July victory against the Angels. Each of the Rangers' past six losses have come by more than one run.
|07-11-19||Edmonton v. BC OVER 55||33-6||Loss||-105||13 h 3 m||Show|
These teams met three weeks ago and Edmonton won, 39-23. I'm expecting another high-scoring game. The Eskimos are coming off a bye. Edmonton quarterback Trevor Harris should carve up BC. I'm not sold on the Lions' defense after they held Toronto to 17 points last week when the Argos were on a short week. The Argos have the worst offense in the CFL averaging 12.7 points per game. The Lions gave up an average of 36 points a game during their first three games before meeting Toronto. I expect Mike Reilly and BC to really be psyched for this rematch. The Lions' ground game has picked up since that loss. John White is coming off a 138-yard rushing game last week. The Eskimos are breaking in new people on defense from last season. Note, too, the Over is 5-0-1 during the last six meetings between the two teams.
|07-11-19||Astros v. Rangers UNDER 11.5||Top||0-5||Win||100||15 h 39 m||Show|
I'm not looking to play a ton of Unders with scoring and power way up this season. Trying to make an Under work in Arlington's Globe Life Park can prove especially difficult during the hot, humid months of July and August. But I'm going to make a rare exception in this Astros-Rangers matchup. It's the only game on the Thursday baseball card. The rest of the MLB teams still get to enjoy All-Star break. My three main factors why I like the Under are Lance Lynn, the Astros' fresh and elite bullpen and the Rangers' current bad offensive form. Lynn is one of the few pitchers going deep into games. He has gone at least seven innings in each of his last four starts. Lynn just isn't an innings-eating, which is important enough given the weak Texas bullpen, but he is having a strong season yielding three earned runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts. The Under is 7-2 in his last nine starts. The Astros entered the break off an 11-10 win against the Angels, However, they had failed to score more than four runs during any of their previous three games. Houston is expected to start rookie Framber Valdez. This would be his fifth start of the season. Valdez was very good in his first two starts holding the Orioles and Blue Jays to a combined three earned runs in 13 innings with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He wasn't so good in his past two starts giving up 11 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings with a 5-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio versus the Yankees and Pirates. That got him sent down to Triple-A Round Rock. What to expect from Valdez? That's the big unkown. What is known is the Astros have an elite, rested bullpen. Valdez just needs to be respectable for five innings. At that point the Astros can turn to middle relievers Will Harris (1.67 ERA), Hector Rondon (3.00 ERA), setup man Ryan Pressly (1.36 ERA) and closer Roberto Osuna (1.95 ERA). Valdez will be pitching on regular rest. The Rangers' scoring has gone downhill. If you discount a 9-3 Fourth of July win against the Angels, Texas is averaging 3.6 runs in its last 10 games. That would be tied for second-to-last in the majors if computed for the entire season. This scoring slump has coincided with Hunter Pence being out since June 16 due to a groin injury. Ronald Guzman and Asdrubal Cabrera haven't been hitting. The Rangers' lineup these days brings no fear. There could be rust factor, too. The only four players from these two teams who have swung a bat against live competition since Sunday are All-Stars George Springer, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman and Joey Gallo. The three Astros have had a combined five at bats. Gallo had just one bat in the All-Star Game. It was a home run to his credit. I'm not putting that much stock in this All-Star break rust angle, however. There were 13 Over and four Unders on the one-game Thursday menu and full slate of Friday games following the 2018 All-Star break. The forecast is for wind blowing out to right at 9-12 mph. That could be why early money has pushed the total up presenting what I perceive as value to the Under. The humidity will be reduced because of partly cloudy conditions so that's a weather plus for the Under.
|07-07-19||Padres v. Dodgers -156||5-3||Loss||-156||10 h 56 m||Show|
The Dodgers have lost two in a row to the Padres. The last time LA lost more than two consecutive games was April. The Dodgers have won 76 percent of their last 59 home games. So I don't mind laying a higher than normal price to back the Dodgers in this spot in a pitching matchup of lefty Joey Lucchesi versus Ross Stripling. Lucchesi is a Petco Park pitcher with a bad history against the Dodgers. He has a 2.76 ERA at Petco. That ERA rises to 6.10 when Lucchesi pitches on the road. He has a 7.64 ERA in four career starts against the Dodgers. The Padres have lost all four of those starts. The Dodgers are 6-1 the past seven times going against a southpaw starter. Padres closer Kirby Yates carries a high fatigue rating having thrown 39 pitches during the past two days in picking up saves Friday and Saturday.
Stripling is underrated being part of such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. He would be a No. 3 type starter on many teams, but has had to wait until Rich Hill suffered a long-term injury to get back into LA's rotation. Stripling has a 2.61 career ERA in 13 appearances versus San Diego, including five starts. The Padres could be without their star rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. He was hit on the elbow by a pitch during Saturday's game.
|07-07-19||Marlins v. Braves -1.5||3-4||Loss||-107||7 h 30 m||Show|
After getting nipped by the Marlins, 5-4, on Saturday I see the Braves bouncing back in a big way today. Atlanta is 7-1 the past eight times following a defeat. The Braves are 13-4 in their last 17 home games and had defeated the Marlins eight consecutive times until Saturday. Miami starter Trevor Richards has a 6.53 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are hitting .333 against the righty during this span. The Marlins have lost 10 of Richards' last 12 road starts. Atlanta is 18-6 in its last 24 games facing a righty starter. Dallas Keuchel is making his fourth start for Atlanta. Keuchel has looked better in each of his outings. He held the Phillies to two runs on five hits in seven innings at home in his last start this past Tuesday.
|07-07-19||Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 9.5||5-6||Loss||-109||8 h 46 m||Show|
Chase Anderson and Joe Musgrove both are in good form. But there are other factors that point to an Under. This has been a bitter division series and is the final game before All-Star break. Neither team won't play again until Friday. Not only are the top relievers for both teams fresh after the Pirates' 12-2 blowout win on Saturday, but it wouldn't shock if starters were used, too, if needed because of the timing. Anderson is pitching his best ball of the season giving up three earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings with an 8-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Josh Hader - the best two-inning reliever in baseball - could be used, too. Musgrove has surrendered just one run in his last three starts spanning 16 innings. Musgrove hasn't been scored on during his last 12 innings. There also are injuries. The Brewers are down shortstop Orlando Arcia, who was injured in a collision with Keston Hiura yesterday. The Pirates may not have outfielder Corey Dickerson, who suffered groin discomfort in Saturday's game. Pittsburgh already is missing injured outfielder Gregory Polanco.
|07-06-19||Rockies +104 v. Diamondbacks||Top||2-4||Loss||-100||15 h 11 m||Show|
Colorado had held Arizona's number winning eight in a row against the Diamondbacks - until Friday night. The Rockies couldn't do anything against Zach Greinke in an 8-0 loss. Look for the Rockies, though, to start a new win streak against the Diamondbacks in a pitching matchup of Jon Gray versus Robbie Ray. Gray has always had a high ceiling and he's been pitching much better with a 2.90 ERA in his last nine appearances spanning 49 2/3 innings. Gray has 52 strikeouts during this span. Colorado is 7-1 in his past eight starts. Gray is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two starts versus Arizona this season, including holding the Diamondbacks to one earned run in six innings at Chase Field on June 19. Gary won't have to worry about injured David Peralta, the Diamondbacks' third-best hitter. Ray hasn't pitched well for more than a month giving up three earned runs or more in six of his last seven starts. His ERA has gone from 3.26 to 4.10 during this time frame.The lefty has a 5.49 ERA in 15 career starts versus the Rockies. Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story have a combined .388 batting average against Ray with 10 homers in 103 at bats. The Rockies rank in the top four in the National League against lefthanded pitching in a number of categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
|07-06-19||Angels v. Astros -1.5||0-4||Win||100||12 h 19 m||Show|
Gerrit Cole was the best pitcher in the American League during June going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 38 innings spanning six starts. He is an elite pitcher. Houston is 21-5 in Cole's last 26 home starts. Lefty Andrew Heaney gets the start for the Angels. Heaney is a high strikeout, high ERA type pitcher. He has a 5.40 ERA this season and has a lifetime 6.00 ERA in two starts at Minute Maid Park. While Cole is in great form, Heaney gave up five runs on six hits and a walk in six innings in a loss to the A's during his last start this past Sunday. The Angels are 2-9 in Heaney's last 11 road starts against an above .500 team. Houston also is 19-6 versus southpaws this season. Each of the Angels' last seven losses have been by more than one run. So I feel confident taking the big chalk home Astros giving up 1 1/2 runs on the run line in order to knock down the high juice.
|07-06-19||BC -7.5 v. Toronto||18-17||Loss||-105||11 h 38 m||Show|
Both teams are winless, but BC has the superior talent. The Lions have a huge edge at quarterback with Mike Reilly against backup McLeod Bethel-Thompson, who is replacing injured James Franklin. Toronto has managed just two touchdowns on offense in opening 0-2. The Argos have lost their games by an average of 37.5 points. Part of their problem on offense is a porous offensive line. BC blew a 32-21 lead with four minutes left against Calgary last week. That was a brutal loss for the Lions, who outplayed the Stampeders for much of the game. Word is the Lions have had a good week of practice and are highly motivated to get their first win here. The Argos are trying to stay upbeat. But they are a bad team and this is a bad spot for them. They just played on Monday and now are playing five days later. They've only had two days of practice after returning home to Regina on a red eye following their Monday game.
|07-06-19||Indians -120 v. Reds||7-2||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
The Indians are heading into All-Star break making a move, going 19-8 in their last 27 games. Jose Ramirez is showing definite signs of breaking out of his season-long slumber batting .333 in his last 10 games. The Indians are much more dangerous when Ramirez is playing well. Cincinnati has won three in a row, all against the Brewers with two of the victories being by one run. I just see the Indians as being at least a level higher than the Reds and I like the pitching matchup of Shane Biebier against Anthony DeSclafani enough to lay this price. DeSclafani has a 5.64 ERA in day games. Bieber has proven himself on the road with a 5-2 away mark and 3.33 ERA. Cleveland is 11-3 in his last 14 road starts. Bieber is coming off a 2-0 victory against the Orioles where he allowed three hits in eight innings with 11 strikeouts. The Reds are just 6-15 in their last 21 interleague games.
|07-05-19||Winnipeg +4 v. Ottawa||29-14||Win||100||77 h 5 m||Show|
I'm taking the points in this battle of unbeatens. The Blue Bombers have a lot of weapons with Andrew Harris, Darvin Adams, Chris Matthews, Nic Demski and Lucky Whitehead, who is one of the most exciting players in the CFL. Winning has covered 72 percent of its last 29 road games. The Blue Bombers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall games. They are 4-0 ATS during their past four visits on Ottawa.
|07-05-19||Marlins v. Braves UNDER 10.5||Top||0-1||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
So far so good for Jordan Yamamoto. In four starts, Yamamoto has a 2.35 ERA ERA with 23 strikesout in 23 innings and a 0.96 WHIP. Opponents are batting .133 against him. This is going to be Yamamoto's toughest test as the Braves rank fifth in runs scored and have scored five or more runs in seven of their last eight games. Atlanta's July humidity can be brutal, which is a plus for the hitters. But Yamamoto catches a break. Even though the temperatures are going to be the 80s the weather forecast is for overcast conditions, which greatly reduce the humidity, and a slight wind blowing in. Julio Teheran has a string of 12 scoreless innings against Miami in two starts this season giving up four hits, three walks and striking out nine. The Marlins have scored only five runs in their last three games. The Under has cashed eight of the last 10 times the Marlins have gone against a right-handed starter. Teheran hasn't gone more than six innings during any of his last 11 starts. However, he has given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of those 11 outings. This has been an Under series with the low side cashing 10 of the last 14 times, including the past four in Atlanta.
Friday Free Play
Rockies at Diamondbacks Under 9 minus $1.20The Rockies are batting .314 at home. The Braves have the next highest home batting average at .277, which is 37 points behind the Rockies. Take Colorado out of Coors Field, though, and the Rockies' offense isn't scary at all. It's far below average in fact. The Rockies rank 14th in the National League in road batting average at .225 and are 13th in the NL in road homers. Colorado is averaging 3.1 runs in its last six away games. The Rockies open a series today at Chase Field, which has become much more of a pitcher's park. They draw All-Star Zach Greinke, who is 9-3 with a 2.90 ERA. Greinke usually can be counted on to hold up his end. But what about Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela? His current form is good - 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts. He also has a 1.89 ERA in his last three road starts and is 1-0 with a 2.13 ERA in two starts versus Arizona this year. The Under has cashed in 79 percent of Senzatela's last 15 road starts. The Diamondbacks rank 12th among the 15 National League teams in home batting average and home runs. Arizona hasn't scored more than four runs in any of its last five games. Arizona also is likely to be without outfielder David Peralta. He's the Diamondbacks' third-leading hitter and is tied for third in team RBI's. Peralta is dealing with a sore right shoulder. Each team's closer has been shaky lately, but both teams were idle on Thursday. So the bullpens will be fresh.
|07-04-19||Twins -131 v. A's||Top||2-7||Loss||-131||8 h 11 m||Show|
Oakland is a tough venue for Minnesota. But a pitching matchup of Jose Berrios versus rookie Tanner Anderson and a fair lay price gets me involved with the Twins. Berrios is a top-five American League starter. He has a 2.89 ERA and is going for his eighth straight quality start. In day action this season, Berrios is 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA. Minnesota has won six of his last seven road starts and 13 of his past 18 overall starts. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA in Triple A. His ERA in the majors is 7.13 in 17 2/3 innings. The A's are 0-4 in Anderson's four starts. The Twins lead the majors in homers and are No. 2 in runs. Anderson is a flyball pitcher and the weather forecast is for wind blowing out at nine mph.
|07-03-19||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5||Top||4-5||Loss||-115||18 h 9 m||Show|
The Dodgers are just too tough especially at home where they have won 43 of their last 55 games. That's a winning percentage of 78 percent. LA is 9-3 in Walker Buehler's last 12 home games. Buehler is pitching on extra rest. The Dodgers are 9-1 the past 10 times Buehler has pitched on five days rest. Buehler faced the Diamondbacks a month ago holding them to one run in eight innings while giving up two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.99 road ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers' bullpen has been pitching much better than the Diamondbacks' bullpen during the last few weeks. Arizona closer Greg Holland blew a save Tuesday night by walking four straight batters.
|07-03-19||Indians v. Royals OVER 8.5||4-0||Loss||-115||16 h 16 m||Show|
Mike Clevinger might return to his usual solid form following the All-Star break, but right now he isn't very good. This will be Clevinger's second start after missing two months because of a back injury. He gave up a career-high seven runs on five hits and three walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Orioles in his first start since his return. That was five days ago. The Royals are in good current offensive form averaging 5.2 runs in their last four games. Danny Duffy starts for Kansas City. He hasn't been good in three years. Duffy has a 5.31 ERA in night games this season. The Over is 9-4 during Duffy's last 13 home starts. The Indians got their bats going in the opener of this series scoring nine runs. The Royals' relievers give up the second-highest batting average in the American League.
|07-02-19||Yankees v. Mets +135||2-4||Win||135||14 h 57 m||Show|
Anyone flying back to the U.S. from London knows it takes a few days to get back into a normal routine. It's called jet lag. The Yankees are sure to experience it and also are in a letdown spot after scoring 29 runs in sweeping two wins from the Red Sox in London during the weekend. They are leading the AL East by 6 1/2 games. Now, just two days later, the Yankees are back in action. That's too soon. The Mets are a dysfunctional bunch, but they do get excited about this series. They faced lefty James Paxton three weeks ago and rocked him for six runs in 2 2/3 innings. The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine games versus a southpaw starter. Mets starter Zach Wheeler has given up just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 innings with 12 strikeouts. Those starts came against two good hitting teams, the Phillies and Cubs.
|07-02-19||Marlins v. Nationals -1.5||2-3||Loss||-100||14 h 56 m||Show|
The Nationals are making a move winning 11 of their last 15 games to stay in wild card contention. Washington should beat the Marlins by multiple runs in a pitching matchup of rookie Zac Gallen against Patrick Corbin. As great as Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are, the Marlins probably would least like to face southpaw Corbin. The Marlins are 11-23 in their last 34 road games against a lefty starter. They rank 12th in the National League against southpaws with a .239 average and have hit the fewest homers in the NL against lefties. Cobin has dominated Miami in his two previous starts this season going 2-0 with a 0.56 ERA. Gallen will be making his third big league start. The Nationals, though, are familar with him having just faced him this past Wednesday at Miami. The Marlins lost that game, 7-5, with Gallen yielding three earned runs in five innings. Corbin was masterful in that victory allowing one run in seven innings. He struck out nine and gave up just three hits and one walk.
|07-01-19||Toronto v. Saskatchewan UNDER 52.5||7-32||Win||100||35 h 8 m||Show|
Toronto isn't very good. The Argos' main problem on offense is quarterback James Franklin and his lack of accuracy and decision making. Toronto is averaging 11 points in its last three games going back to last season. Franklin is not helped by a porous offensive line. I don't see the Argos breaking their offensive slump going on the road against a Roughriders defense that can apply a solid pass rush. The Argos should exert a supreme effort after opening the season with a 64-14 embarrassing blowout loss to Hamilton. The strength of Toronto is its defensive line. The Roughriders are going with backup quarterback Cody Fajardo. Their starting quarterback, Zach Collaros, is out for a couple of more weeks after sustaining a concusion. This has been an Under series with the low side cashing five of the past seven times.
|07-01-19||Royals v. Blue Jays UNDER 10.5||Top||4-11||Loss||-100||10 h 44 m||Show|
Two weak-hitting teams in a get-away early start Monday game has the right ingredients for an Under. Kansas City ranks 25th in runs and 27th in homers. The Royals face Blue Jays lefty Clayton Richard, who is coming off his best start of the season. The Royals are 13th in batting average in the American League against lefties hitting .237. Toronto rates 26th in runs and is 29th in batting average. The Blue Jays are going against Glenn Sparkman, who has a 3.06 ERA in day games.
|06-30-19||Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies||Top||10-5||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
There is a Dodgers starter who is capable of pitching well at Coors Field. That starter is Kenta Maeda and he's pitching today. Lifetime against the Rockies, Maeda is 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA. Maeda is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA at Coors Field. Colorado starter Chi Chi Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. This is only his second big league appearance since 2016. Gonzalez gave up three runs on six hits and four walks in five innings against the Giants on the road this past Thursday. Gonzalez still has a ways to go to get rid of his considerable rust. He goes from a strong pitcher's park in San Francisco to making his second big league start in three years at Coors against one of the best and deepest offenses in baseball. So I see this as a kill spot for the Dodgers, who have lost two in a row to Colorado. If you discount yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Rockies, the Dodgers are averaging 10 runs and nearly three homers a game during their previous five games at Coors.
|06-30-19||Phillies -126 v. Marlins||13-6||Win||100||7 h 52 m||Show|
Miami has had Philadelphia's number winning the past five times against the Phillies. This doesn't change the fact that the Phillies are much the superior team and have a starting pitched edge here. Jake Arrieta is past his prime. But the Phillies are 4-0 against the Marlins during Arrieta's last four starts against them. He rates an edge against Trevor Richards and has the better offense to back him up. The Marlins rank 29th in runs and 30th in homers. Richards is 2-6 with a 4.37 ERA in 10 home starts. He is 1-3 with a 6.64 ER in five lifetime starts versus the Phillies. The Marlins have lost in eight of Richards' past 10 home starts.
|06-30-19||Rangers v. Rays OVER 7.5||2-6||Win||100||7 h 49 m||Show|
This is a low total for an American League game and it's not justified. This isn't 2018 for Blake Snell. He's been terrible this month posting an 11.94 ERA in five June starts. Snell hasn't reached the fifth inning during any of his last three starts. Only four teams are averaging more runs per game than the Rangers. Jesse Chavez is a converted starter who has been pitching well. Chavez, though, is coming off a season-high in pitches with 79. That's 20 more than he had previously thrown in a game this season. He's due for a regression and the Rangers have the 11th worst bullpen in the American League.
|06-29-19||Diamondbacks -136 v. Giants||Top||4-3||Win||100||17 h 16 m||Show|
This road price is worthy laying in a pitching matchup of Zack Greinke versus lefty Drew Pomeranz. Greinke is 2-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his last three road starts. Greinke loves to pitch at Oracle Park where he is 5-0 lifetime with a 1.37 ERA in seven starts. Arizona has won 72 percent of Greinke's last 47 starts against sub .500 teams. The Giants are seven games below .500 at home. They rank in the bottom five in batting average, runs and homers. Pomeranz is 2-8 with a 6.79 ERA. He probably shouldn't be in a big league starting rotation. Pomeranz is 0-4 with an 8.53 ERA in 10 career appearances versus Arizona, including seven starts. The Diamondbacks have the highest batting average and slugging percentage in the National League against lefthanders.
|06-29-19||BC v. Calgary OVER 53||32-36||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
BC is having a lot of problems with its defense in the early going of this CFL season allowing a combined 72 points through its first two games. This isn't that surprising given there is a new coach and new system in place. The Lions also are breaking in seven different defensive starters. Calgary wasn't sharp offensively in losing 32-28 to Ottawa opening week. The Stampeders have had two weeks to prepare and tinker with their offense following a bye last week. Expect Bo Levi to produce a big game against this weak defense. BC should be able to do its part, too, in getting this total to go Over as Calgary hasn't been sharp either on defense. Despite playing just one game, Calgary is is beat-up on its defensive line.
|06-29-19||Twins -160 v. White Sox||10-3||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
Perhaps tired from losing an 18-inning home game to the Rays on Thursday, the Twins fell to the White Sox, 6-4, at Chicago on Friday. Minnesota has not dropped three games in a row all season. Look for the Twins to bounce back here. Minnesota is 17-8 in its last 25 away games. Michael Pineda gets the start. He has given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts. He has allowed just one homer in his last five starts.
The White Sox have a bottom-seven offense and are without their best hitter, injured Tim Anderson. White Sox starter Ivan Nova is 0-2 with a 4.66 ERA this month. He has yet to win at home this season going 0-3 with an 8.79 ERA in six starts at Guaranteed Rate Field. The Twins have a powerful record against weak opponents. Minnesota is 41-16 versus below .500 foes.
|06-29-19||Cubs v. Reds OVER 9.5||6-0||Loss||-105||12 h 58 m||Show|
Jose Quintana just isn't very good. He is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his past six starts and the Cubs are carrying a high bullpen fatigue rating after Cole Hamels could pitch just one inning on Friday. Luis Castillo is a good young pitcher. But right now he is struggling with a 4.02 ERA in his last three starts. Castillo has a 4.31 day time ERA and is having problems with his control. Castillo has given up 11 walks in his last two starts. The Cubs are the best at drawing walks. Great American Ball Park is a great hitter's park. Weather conditions are ripe for the offense, too, with temperatures in the 90s and wind blowing out at 8-10 mph.
|06-28-19||A's +122 v. Angels||Top||7-2||Win||122||13 h 41 m||Show|
Oakland is 7-3 in its last 10 games. The Angels defeated the A's, 8-3, on Thursday. The A's have come back and won the past six times following a loss. I like their chances in this matchup. Mike Fiers is 5-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his last nine starts. Fiers, a flyball pitcher, is tough when pitching at spacious West Coast ballparks like Angel Stadium. Fiers is 2-0 in two starts against the Angels this season. The Angels are using this as a bullpen game. Noe Ramirez is expected to pitch the first inning and then be followed by Felix Pena, who is 0-2 with an 11.81 ERA in five career appearances against the A's, including three starts. Oakland is averaging 5.3 runs per game during its last 10 games. The Angels do not have a strong bullpen, ranking 10th in relief pitching ERA, and their relievers have been pitching a lot of innings. I prefer Oakland's bullpen even without injured closer Blake Treinen.
|06-28-19||Montreal +13 v. Hamilton||10-41||Loss||-110||17 h 7 m||Show|
Montreal is not good. But the Alouettes have a tremendous knack for covering point spreads. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games and have covered eight of their past nine road matchups. Hamilton is in a letdown spot after destroying rival Toronto, 64-14, on the road last Saturday. Now the Tiger-Cats are home against winless Montreal on a short week. The teams meet again next Thursday at Montreal so the Tiger-Cats won't be anxious to show too much, nor run up a score. Vernon Adams Jr. is an excellent scrambling quarterback. He can keep the Alouettes in the game. Montreal is the fourth-best rushing team in the CFL.The Alouettes will look to control clock so, yes, I can see them covering another inflated spread.
|06-28-19||Montreal v. Hamilton UNDER 58||10-41||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
Montreal figures to stay on the ground and rely on field position to try to hang with Hamilton. That strategy is more likely to happen now that the full weather report has revealed itself on this game. There is going to be gusting wind in the 35-40 mph range and also a chance of rain.Both teams have a strong history of going Under early in the season, too. The Alouettes have gone Under in 24 of their last 28 June games, while the Under is 21-7 in the Tiger-Cats' past 28 June games.
|06-27-19||Edmonton v. Winnipeg -4.5||21-28||Win||100||30 h 24 m||Show|
This is a step up in class for Edmonton, which has opened the season 2-0 with home victories against Montreal and BC. The oddsmaker realizes that. But the line still is too short especially considering the Blue Bombers had a bye last week and this is their home opener while the Eskimos play their first road game. The Blue Bombers opened with a 33-23 road win against BC before enjoying their early bye last week. That pushed their ATS mark to 7-2 in their last nine games going back to last season. Edmonton's rebuilt defense is going to face a far more serious challenge on the road against Winnipeg, which could have the best running back in the CFL in Andrew Harris. The Eskimos didn't see a back nearly that good when it met its first two opponents. Edmonton has injuries on defense that will be tougher to mask against this multi-dimensional opponent.
|06-27-19||Pirates v. Astros -1.5||10-0||Loss||-100||9 h 52 m||Show|
I see a kill spot for the Astros here after they were hammered, 14-2, by the Pirates at home on Wednesday. The Astros have won 28 of their 40 home games this season, the best mark in the American League. The Astros' lineup has gotten even more dangerous with the recent returns of Jose Altuve and George Springer. Houston draws Joe Musgrove. The Astros know Musgrove, a former teammate. Pittsburgh is 3-10 in Musgrove's last 13 road starts. Musgrove has a 6.57 ERA in day action. Brad Peacock is an excellent pitcher, who is behind the radar being on the same pitching staff with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Peacock has struck out 87 in 82 innings and carries a 1.10 WHIP. Houston is 22-10 in Peacock's last 32 starts.
|06-27-19||Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9.5||Top||3-6||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
Both Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola are having up-and-down seasons. Both, though, are excellent pitchers and coming off strong starts. I trust each of them to do their jobs today especially considering the circumstances, which favor an Under. This is a day time get away game. So some regulars could be sitting. There is a slight wind blowing in and Ryan Blakney is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time when he has been the home plate umpire during the last four years, a large sampling of 102 games.
|06-26-19||Nationals -148 v. Marlins||Top||7-5||Win||100||16 h 32 m||Show|
The Nationals have been playing better winning six of their last eight games. Lefty Patrick Corbin dominated the Marlins when he faced them a month ago. Corbin went the distance and shut out the Marlins giving up just four hits and one walk. Corbin was a minus $2.50 home favorite against Sandy Alcantara. This price is far lower so I see value on the Nationals even though they are mid-sized chalk. The Marlins are 17-35 the last 52 times they've faced a lefty starter at home. Rookie Zac Gallen is set to make his second big league start for Miami. He looked good against the Cardinals in his debut. But he is unproven. Corbin isn't. The Nationals have been swinging hot bats, too. If you discount their 2-0 win against the Phillies, the Nationals are averaging 8.3 runs in its last six games.
|06-26-19||Padres v. Orioles +119||10-5||Loss||-100||12 h 49 m||Show|
There is one area the Orioles are good at - beating National League lefties at home. Baltimore is 12-4 the past 16 times hosting an NL foe starting a southpaw. The Padres are going with lefty Matt Strahm, who is in danger of losing his spot in San Diego's starting rotation. Foes have adjusted to Strahm, who has been beaten up for 20 runs during his last four appearances spanning 18 2/3 innings. Strahm has been tagged for eight homers in this time frame and Camden Yards is a great hitter's park. Dylan Bundy has pitched much better during the past two months. His ERA is a respectable 3.46 in his last nine starts. Bundy has given up three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. The Padres have lost eight of their last 10 road games.
|06-25-19||Pirates v. Astros -1.5||1-5||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
The Astros are ready to roll again after going an embarrassing 1-6 on their just concluded road trip with their last four games coming against the Yankees. Now Houston drops way down in class. The Astros' last four home victories have been by an average of six runs. They are an American League-best 27-11 at home. Trevor Williams has been struggling for the Pirates with a 5.86 ERA in his last five starts. He was just beat up for seven runs on nine hits in five innings against the Tigers six days ago. Gerrit Cole is having a magnificent season leading the majors in strikeouts with 148 while walking just 25. He has a career-best 1.02 WHIP. Cole is going to be extra pumped for this matchup. It's the first time he is facing the Pirates after playing his first five years with them.
|06-25-19||Mets v. Phillies -139||Top||5-7||Win||100||15 h 2 m||Show|
The Mets are in disarray with eight losses in their last 12 games. Walter Lockett, a fill-in starer without decent credentials, is not the pitcher to put a stop to it. The Phillies, on the other hand, regained their swagger burying the Mets, 13-7, Monday night. Lockett made his season debut this past Thursday against the Cubs and was battered for six earned runs in 2 1/3 innings in a 7-4 loss. Phillies starter Jake Arrieta allowed just one run on two hits in six innings against the Nationals in his last start this past Wednesday. Arrieta has a career 2.50 ERA against the Mets in 12 starts. New York is 8-23 in its last 31 road games and have lost in five of its past six visits to Philadelphia.Tuesday Free Play Mariners plus $1.55 at Brewers Zach Davies is 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA. He is not nearly as good as those numbers show. The regression has started. Davies has a 7.82 ERA in his last three stars. He gave up five runs on nine hits in 2 2/3 innings against the Padres at pitcher-friendly Petco Park this past Wednesday during his last start. Now Davies draws a hot-hitting Mariners club averaging eight runs a game in their past five games. While Davies is returning to the norm, Seattle starter Marco Gonzales is back pitching well. The lefty is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during each of those outings. Milwaukee is 10-13 versus southpaw starters. The Mariners are 5-4 in their last nine road games facing the Angels, Twins and A's during this span. The Brewers have lost the first game during each of their last four series.
|06-25-19||Padres v. Orioles OVER 10||8-3||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
The Padres have been a sneaky good Over team when on the road, which makes sense since they play their home games at spacious, pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Over has cashed in 64 percent of San Diego's 37 away games. I envision each team producing at least five runs in a pitching matchup of Logan Allen versus nominal starter Jimmy Yacbonis as this is going to be a bullpen game for Baltimore. Allen had a brilliant big league debut blanking the Brewers on three hits in seven innings last Tuesday. That was at Petco. Now teams have something to go on with Allen and he's pitching at Camden Yards, a very good hitter's park. Allen wasn't anything special in the minors with a 5.15 ERA in 13 starts at Triple A El Paso. Yacbonis has a 4.70 ERA. He's going to give way to Josh Rogers, who has an 8.25 ERA. The Orioles have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. So a bullpen game for them is courting disaster.
|06-24-19||White Sox v. Red Sox UNDER 9||Top||5-6||Loss||-100||13 h 20 m||Show|
Lucas Giolito has lived up to his high ceiling this season becoming an elite pitcher. He didn't pitch well in his last start. Prior to that, however, Giolito had surrendered three or fewer runs in each of his last 10 starts. The Under has cashed in seven of Giolito's last nine starts. Boston lefty Eduardo Rodriguez is rounding into shape going seven innings in each of his last two starts. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four lifetime starts against the White Sox. The White Sox rank 24th in runs and 25th in homers. They have the second-fewest homers in the American League against lefty pitchers. Chicago isn't in great offensive form either averaging 3.8 runs in its last seven games. Both pitchers should get a boost from the weather conditions, which call for wind blowing in at 7-8 mph. The Under has won the past six times the two teams have played at Fenway Park.
|06-23-19||Angels v. Cardinals -130||Top||6-4||Loss||-130||14 h 23 m||Show|
Miles Mikolas loves to pitch at Busch Stadium. Mikolas was 8-4 with a 2.17 ERA pitching at Busch Stadium in his first season with the Cardinals last year. He's followed that up with a winning home mark and a 2.55 ERA at Busch this season. The Angels have managed just three runs during the first two games of this series. St. Louis is 12-4 in Mikolas' last 16 home starts. Tyler Skaggs has been less effective on the road for the Angels with a 5.27 away ERA. The Cardinals have scored four or more runs in eight of their last 10 games.
|06-23-19||Giants v. Diamondbacks -137||2-3||Win||100||12 h 31 m||Show|
The Giants are going for a road sweep against the Diamondbacks. I don't see them getting it. The pitching matchup is Shaun Anderson against Merrill Kelly. Anderson went against Arizona on May 26. He took the loss in that game allowing six runs, four of which were earned, while allowing nine hits with one walk in five innings. Kelly faced the Giants on May 17. He shut them out in 5 1/3 innings. Kelly is off a rough outing in his start against the Rockies. Prior to that start, though, Kelly had posted a 3-0 mark with a 0.81 ERA in three starts.
|06-23-19||Astros -125 v. Yankees||9-4||Win||100||9 h 23 m||Show|
The Yankees are hot. The Astros are not. This just comes down to trusting Justin Verlander and getting a low enough price to back him.Houston is 21-5 in Verlander's last 26 road starts. The Astros are 8-1 the past nine times Verlander has pitched on the road versus an above .500 opponent. He has beaten the Yankees four of the last five times he has faced them. Lefty J.A. Happ goes for New York. He is 6-0 in his last eight starts, but with a 4.29 ERA during this span. Happ has been lucky. The Astros are 16-6 against lefty starters this season.
|06-22-19||Hamilton -3.5 v. Toronto||64-14||Win||100||5 h 48 m||Show|
Both teams have some good skill position players. However, Toronto doesn't have the defense to stay with Hamilton. The Argos had a terrible defense last year and they are in rebuilt mode this season. There are going to be growing pains especially this early in the season. Jeremiah Masoli will be able to exploit Toronto's retooled defense. Hamilton has dominated this series especially when playing in Toronto where the Tiger-Cats have covered eight of the last 10 times.
|06-22-19||Hamilton v. Toronto OVER 52.5||64-14||Win||100||5 h 46 m||Show|
Both teams have some dynamic skill position players. Hamilton should be able to score a lot of points against a Toronto defense that was the league's worst last season and is breaking in a slew of new players and a new system. Hamilton's defense will be minus star linebacker Simoni Lawrence, who will be serving the first of a two-game suspension. The Over has cashed the past four times the teams have met.
|06-22-19||Twins -1.5 v. Royals||Top||5-3||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
Danny Duffy sits unclaimed in the free agent pool in my 12-team American League Rotisserie league. A couple of owners, myself included, picked him up only to discard him after a brief trial period. The unamimous conclusion is Duffy isn't effective anymore. He wasn't good last season with a 4.88 ERA and he's not good this year with a 4.64 ERA. Duffy is going through another bad stretch with a 7.32 ERA in his last four starts. Now Duffy draws the top offense in baseball. The Royals are 5-13 in Duffy's last 18 starts. Kansas City is 1-7 the past eight times Duffy has faced an above .500 team at home. Kansas City is 15-24 at home. Minnesota is 25-13 on the road. It's a big reason why the Twins have the best record in the majors. The Twins' bullpen advantage was on full display when they came from behind to beat the Royals Friday night. Now Minnesota has a monster starting pitching edge with Jose Berrios taking on Duffy. Berrios is an elite level starter, who unlike Duffy, is in great current form with a 1.31 ERA in three starts this month. Minnesota is 12-4 in Berrios' last 16 starts, including winning his past five road starts. It shouldn't be too much to ask the Twins, who will get nine innings of at bats, to defeat the Royals by more than one run so we avoid laying such heavy juice.
|06-21-19||Twins -156 v. Royals||Top||8-7||Win||100||15 h 48 m||Show|
Perhaps the Twins felt a bit of a letdown entering Thursday's first game of this road series against the lowly Royals having just hosted a three-game series with the Red Sox. The Royals upset the Twins on Thursday.It was Minnesota's second loss in a row. The Twins haven't lost three straight games all season - and I certainly don't see that occurring here. I like the pitching matchup for Minnesota and the spot as the Twins shouldn't lack motivation and concentration after Kansas City just beat Jake Odorizzi. Kansas City is 5-16 following a victory. The Royals aren't good at home either with a 15-23 mark. The Twins own the best record in the American League. They are 21-6 following a defeat and have won 65 percent of their road games. Lefty Martin Perez faces Jakob Junis. Perez is having his finest season with his best strikeout and hit rates of his career. He has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the Royals in four starts. The Royals are 8-14 versus southpaw starters. Kansas City ranks in the bottom-six in runs and homers. Junis goes against a Twins offense that ranks first in runs and homers and second in batting average. The Twins have seven players with at least 11 homers. The Royals only have one player in their lineup with more than 11 homers. The weather forecast is calling for 13-15 mph winds blowing out, which favor the power-hitting Twins. Kansas City is without its starting left side of its infield with Adalberto Mondesi and Hunter Dozier both on IL. Mondesi could be the Royals' second best player and Dozier is their second-leading home run hitter. Junis has a lifetime 0-1 mark with a 4.55 ERA in six starts against the Twins. Minnesota just saw Junis this past Sunday. The Twins collected five hits and three walks, scoring two runs in 3 2/3 innings against Junis.
|06-20-19||Twins -1.5 v. Royals||Top||1-4||Loss||-113||16 h 42 m||Show|
There are four American League teams who are terrible this season - Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Blue Jays. They are teams you would like to fade every day if you could, but the oddsmaker makes that hard to do by assigning heavy juice to their opponent. Baseball being baseball it's not responsible money management to lay huge prices. The trick to getting around this is the run line where you are confident of beating these bad teams by more than one run. I see that here with the visiting Twins in a pitching matchup of Jake Odorizzi versus Glenn Sparkman. Odorizzi is have a magical season with a 10-game win streak and 2.24 ERA. Minnesota is 14-3 in his last 17 starts. Odorizzi is backed by the best offense in the majors. Minnesota ranks No. 1 in runs and homers. The Royals are at their worse going against upper echelon teams. Minnesota has the best record in the American League at 48-24 for a .658 winning percentage. The Royals have lost 50 of the last 62 times when going against a foe with a win percentage above .600. Sparkman isn't very good and he's been downright terrible against the Twins with an 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in his career against them. The Twins just got to see Sparkman this past Satureday and scored five runs off him in five innings. Kansas City ranks 25th in runs and 26th in homers. The Royals also could be without arguably their second-best player, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. He leads the majors by a wide margin in steals with 27. Thursday Free Play A's plus $1.02 hosting Rays Tampa Bay is a good road team. They Rays also have a solid starter going in Charle Morton. So why go against them? Three reasons: Price, spot and Frankie Montas. The Rays find themselves in a tough situation. They just were swept in New York by the Yankees, a huge letdown for them considering that was a showdown for the AL East Division lead. Tampa Bay was outscored 21-4 by the Yankees in the three-game series. The Rays have lost seven of their last nine games and have to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast. The last time the Rays were on West Coast time was early April. AL East teams often struggle when playing the A's in Oakland. They are used to playing in hitter's parks. The A's, who are 22-17 at home, play in a pitcher's park that has strange dimensions. It is not a popular venue for opposing teams. I like the righthanded Morton. I just like Montas better. Montas has become an All-Star this season giving up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 starts. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.6 percent last year to 11 percent. The Rays have the added disadvantage of never having faced him. Morton is coming off a subpar start where he allowed four earned runs and two homers in six innings against the Angels this past Saturday. Oakland has won six of its last seven games against a righy starter.
|06-20-19||Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 44||41-44||Loss||-110||55 h 7 m||Show|
Ottawa's defense looked good opening week against a strong Calgary offense. Now the Redblacks step way down in class facing a Roughriders offense that is already down to their backup quarterbacks. Zach Collaros was injured in Saskatchewan's opening game and is out. The Roughriders' offense turned limited once Collaros departed. The Roughriders put up just 17 points on Hamilton and now have to play on the road a second straight week. So expect a conservative game plan.
|06-19-19||Marlins v. Cardinals OVER 8||1-2||Loss||-100||15 h 12 m||Show|
Each of these teams should be good to produce at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Trevor Richards versus Daniel Ponce de Leon. Richards was battered for five runs on 11 hits in just five innings by the Pirates in his last start this past Friday. Richards has a 4.20 night ERA and is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA in two career starts versus the Cardinals. Richards can't expect much help either from a terrible Marlins bullpen. Prior to being shut out on Tuesday, the Cardinals were averaging six runs a game during their previous five games. Ponce de Leon had a 3.90 ERA in 11 starts at Triple-A Memphis before being recently called up to the majors. Ponce de Leon has walked seven in nine innings during his first two starts this season. Miami has scored at least four runs in three of its past four games. Weather-wise, the wind is blowing out at eight mph.
|06-19-19||White Sox +135 v. Cubs||Top||3-7||Loss||-100||16 h 32 m||Show|
Lucas Giolito is an emerging superstar. Jon Lester is on the downside of his career. Stats and current form reflect this. Giolito is riding an eight-game win streak. That's what happens when you have a 0.94 ERA during this span. The White Sox are 11-1 in Giolito's last 12 starts. The 35-year-old Lester already has hit a wall this season with a 7.59 ERA in his last six starts. Lester was battered for three homers and six runs in five innings against the Dodgers during his last start this past Thursday. The price is high on the Cubs because they are home and considered a much better team than the White Sox. However, the White Sox have won 12 of their last 19 games while the Cubs are just 10-15 in their last 25 games.
|06-18-19||Royals v. Mariners -123||Top||9-0||Loss||-123||14 h 6 m||Show|
The buy sign is back on Yusei Kikuchi after the lefty held the Twins - the AL's top-scoring team - to one run on six hits in five innings this past Thursday on the road. The buy sign is never on Homer Bailey, who has a 5.37 ERA. Expect that already-horrible ERA to go up even more as Bailey's ERA has been above 6.00 during the previous three years. Seattle is the far superior offensive team, too, ranking eighth in the majors in runs and No. 2 in homers. Kansas City, by contrast, rates 25th in runs and 26th in homers. The Royals are 7-13 against lefty starters this season. They have won just 28 percent of their last 61 away contests. The Mariners have dominated this series winning nine of the last 10 times, including posting a 4-1 mark this season.
|06-18-19||Giants v. Dodgers -1.5||0-9||Win||100||14 h 2 m||Show|
Look for the Dodgers to rebound in big fashion after losing, 3-2, at home to the Giants on Monday. LA is going with lefty Clayton Kershaw, who is 22-11 with a 1.72 ERA against San Francisco. That 1.72 ERA consists of 330 1/3 innings, too. San Francisco is 8-13 versus southpaw starters. The Giants rank among the bottom-three in runs, batting average and homers. They aren't likely to have Pablo Sandoval, who has the Giants' highest batting average and is tied for the team lead in homers. He suffered a hand injury last night. The Giants sneaked past the Dodgers on Monday behind rookie Tyler Beede. Now the Giants are trying to do it again with another rookie, Shaun Anderson. The Dodgers rank 12th in runs and have smacked the seventh-most homers in the majors. Of the Giants' last 11 losses, 10 have been by more than one run.
|06-18-19||Indians v. Rangers UNDER 10.5||10-3||Loss||-101||12 h 59 m||Show|
This is a below-the-radar starting pitching matchup of rookie Zach Plesac versus Adrian Sampson. Plesac has made four big league starts. He's given up two or fewer earned runs in three of them and has a 2.92 ERA. Plesac has allowed two runs on eight hits with nine strikeouts on the road spanning 12 1/3 innings. The Rangers have never faced him. Plesac draws the Rangers dealing with three key injuries. Joey Gallo and rejuvenated Hunter Pence are on IL. Nomar Mazara has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury. Gallo and Pence rank first and second, respectively, on the Rangers in homers. The Under has cashed in 11 of Texas' last 14 home games. Sampson has turned his season around going 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA in his last six starts. The righty has a 2.70 ERA at home. Cleveland hasn't ever gone against him. The Under is 18-7-1 the past 26 times the Indians have faced a righty starter.
|06-17-19||Astros v. Reds UNDER 8.5||Top||2-3||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
Luis Castillo has become an ace this season. He is 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA. Castillo has been especially dominant at home compiling a 1.87 ERA at Great American Ball Park. Castillo is in great current form, too, with a 1.56 ERA during his past three starts. The Astros have the added disadvantage of never having faced Castillo. Keep in mind, too, Houston has been minus three injured stars - Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa. But what about Astros starter Wade Miley? He certainly doesn't have the star quality of Castillo. But Miley has been good for more than a year now with a 2.85 ERA during his last 30 starts. The 32-year-old Miley has become a highly reliable, solid starter late in his career. The lefty has given up three runs or fewer in 13 of his 14 starts this year. Miley is coming off six scoreless innings against the Orioles. Great American Ball Park is an excellent hitter's park. But like Castillo, Miley has shown he can pitch well there going 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six career starts. Cincinnati ranks 21st in slugging percentage against southpaws. There is no DH, which is a huge plus for the Under. So are the relief pitchers. The Astros and Reds each rank in the top-four in bullpen ERA. The Astros have all of their top bullpen arms rested and ready. So do the Reds.
|06-16-19||Cubs v. Dodgers OVER 7.5||Top||2-3||Loss||-114||15 h 1 m||Show|
We have two top-10 offenses here in a pitching matchup of Jose Quintana versus Hyun-Jin Ryu. I'm not a fan of Quintana especially on the road where he has a 5.13 ERA. The Over has cashed in six of Quintana's last eight road starts. The Cubs' bullpen remains unsettled until Craig Kimbrel takes over as closer. Ryu is having a Cy Young-type season. Ryu isn't that good. Regression is due. He has a 4.24 career ERA against the Cubs in three previous starts. D.J. Reyburn is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has won 60 percent of the time Reyburn has been behind the plate the past two seasons spanning 43 games.
|06-16-19||Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5||Top||12-0||Loss||-108||11 h 48 m||Show|
Toronto has much to celebrate with the Raptors. Toronto has nothing to celebrate, though, with the Blue Jays, losers of 17 of their last 22 games. The Astros have blasted the overmatched Blue Jays, 22-4, in the first two games of this series. I'm expecting the Astros to manhandle Toronto once again so have no qualms about laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. Houston is averaging 8.7 runs in its last four games. Each of Toronto's last 10 defeats have been by more than one run. The pitching matchup is Trent Thornton, who has a 4.78 ERA, facing Brad Peacock, who is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven starts with 45 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings during this span. The Astros are 22-8 in Peacock's last 30 starts, including 6-1 this season during his home starts.
|06-15-19||Cardinals +125 v. Mets||Top||7-8||Loss||-100||6 h 51 m||Show|
The Cardinals are playing much better than the Mets having won nine of their last 14. The Mets have lost three of their last four. Noah Syndergaard was sick earlier in the week and is having a down season. He's been especially bad at night with a 5.88 ERA in evening games. The Mets are 1-4 in his last five starts. New York's bullpen has been terrible, too, even closer Edwin Diaz is having a subpar season. St. Louis starter Michael Wacha looked like a new pitcher in his first start off the DL from a knee injury throwing six scoreless innings against the Marlins. The buy sign is back on Wacha at this underdog price.
|06-15-19||Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 51.5||32-28||Loss||-110||18 h 41 m||Show|
The Redblacks are going to be down offensively especially at the beginning of the season as they have to break in a new quarterback, left tackle and offensive coordinator. Calgary has a huge Under the total history in Week 1 and the first month of the season. The Stampeders have gone Under in 21 of their last 26 June matchups. They also are 17-5-1 to the Under during their last 23 opening week games. This highlights a strong Under Week 1 trend as since 2014, the Under is 15-5 in opening week games.
|06-15-19||Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5||2-7||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
It doesn't matter for Houston that Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa are all out. The Astros have tremendous offensive depth and young talent such as highly-touted Yordan Alvarez. He's slugged three homers in his first four games with the Astros. The Astros are averaging 9.3 runs in their last three games. They should have no problem teeing off on struggling Clayton Richard, who has a 7.04 ERA and probably isn't likely to remain in Toronto's starting rotation much longer. Richard has failed to reach the sixth inning in any of his starts either. So the Astros will get shots at Toronto's weak bullpen, which is minus injured closer Ken Giles. Good-looking lefty Framber Valdez gets the start for Houston. He has a 2.41 home ERA in eight appearances and is backed by an eilte bullpen. All of Houston's top relief arms are rested, too, following Friday's 15-2 blowout victory. The Blue Jays rank 13th out of 15 American League teams in batting average against lefthanders.
|06-15-19||Diamondbacks v. Nationals -1.5||10-3||Loss||-103||10 h 20 m||Show|
The Diamondbacks couldn't do much against Max Scherzer on Friday and I don't see them doing anything against Stephen Strasburg, who like Scherzer is having a big season. The Nationals have shown a lot of life lately winning 13 of their last 19 games. All of their last nine victories have been by more than one run making it worth backing them on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last seven games to the Nationals. They are not in a good spot here having to go with Taylor Clarke, who probably should be removed from their starting rotation. Clarke has a 9.58 ERA in his last three starts. He also has a 5.66 road ERA.
|06-15-19||Angels v. Rays -1.5||5-3||Loss||-100||11 h 59 m||Show|
Charlie Morton always has been tough in day games. This year is no exception as Morton is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in day action. Morton is having a superb season, too, winning 11 straight decisions. He is unscored upon in 14 innings this month with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk June ratio. The Angels are going with rookie lefty Jose Suarez, who has a 4.35 ERA and will be making just his third big league start. Suarez had a 3.91 ERA in five games, including four starts, with Salt Lake in Triple A before coming up to the Angels. The Rays are 15-9 against lefty starters and have the fourth-highest batting average in the American League against southpaws. It's tough for the visitor to play in quirky Tropicana Field. The Angels have lost in five of their last six visits. This early start is a disadvantage, too, for the West Coast team.
|06-14-19||Montreal +8 v. Edmonton||25-32||Win||100||8 h 47 m||Show|
The spread is where it is in part because Montreal fired its coach, Mike Sherman, right before the season. Sherman was a bad hire, though. The only time the guy could win was when he had Brett Favre in Green Bay. Interim coach Khari Jones is a much better fit for the Alouettes. Jones knows the CFL. Sherman didn't. The Alouettes have underrated talent and a knack for covering numbers. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Edmonton endured a difficult off-season losing a number of key players, including star quarterback Mike Reilly. I don't see the Eskimos being an early-season powerhouse where they can cover this high of a spread. The Eskimos do not have a good June history either. They are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 June games.
|06-14-19||Yankees v. White Sox UNDER 9||Top||2-10||Loss||-120||16 h 46 m||Show|
There isn't a hotter pitcher in baseball than Lucas Giolito. He hasn't allowed a run during three of his last four starts, including the past two. Giolito's ERA is 0.88 during his last four starts. The Under has cashed in each of Giolito's last seven starts. The Yankees' lineup isn't nearly so fierce because of their many injuries. Giolito has a rested Alex Colome in the bullpen if needed. CC Sabathia has a 19-7 career mark against the White Sox with a 3.67 ERA in 38 starts. Sabathia faced the Whie Sox on April 13 and gave up only one hit in five scoreless innings. The White Sox rank 22nd in runs and 25th in homers. Todd Tichenor is slated to be behind the plate. The Under is 8-4 when Tichenor has been the home plate ump. There are brisk winds blowing in Chicago, but they are more of a cross-wind.
|06-14-19||Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5||2-15||Win||100||16 h 38 m||Show|
The Astros are 25-10 at home, but coming off a rare defeat at Minute Maid Park. That occurred to the Brewers in extra innings on Wednesday. The Astros were idle on Thursday. I'm expecting a strong focused effort from them. They have the right pitching matchup to blow out the Blue Jays. Toronto is going with Aaron Sanchez, who has yielded nine earned during his last two starts spanning 12 innings. Sanchez gives up too many walks. Only three pitchers give up more bases on balls than Sanchez. The Blue Jays are 2-7 in their last nine road games. Toronto buried the Orioles, 12-3, at Balitmore on Thursday. However, the Blue Jays are 2-9 following a victory. Gerrit Cole is one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's leading the majors in strikeouts. The Astros are 18-5 in Cole's last 23 home starts. Cole is holding opponents to a .196 batting average at home. Unlke Sanchez, Cole is in excellent current form with a 2.08 ERA in his last two starts.
|06-13-19||Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5||Top||114-110||Loss||-110||18 h 6 m||Show|
It's easy to think offense with these two teams even without Kevin Durant. But these are two excellent, underrated defensive teams. The tempo has been down six possessions the past two games and the defensive intensity should be at its highest in this Game 6 with the Warriors facing elimination at home. Golden State has been bothered by Toronto's wing span and athleticism. Kawhi Leonard is a superstar because he's a great two-way player. The Warriors are averaging less than 100 points during their last two games. The Under has covered 75 percent of the time during Toronto's last 13 road games. The Warriors have held the Raptors to 105 points or less in three of the last four games.
|06-13-19||Raptors v. Warriors -140||114-110||Loss||-140||18 h 5 m||Show|
The Warriors won an extremely difficult road game this past Monday in Game 5. Golden State came back despite the horror of seeing Kevin Durant suffer a ruptured Achilles tendon and being down six points with three minutes left. The Warriors aren't champions for nothing. Not only are they a great team - even without Durant - but they have tremendous intangibles. I don't see them giving up their crown at home in what will be their final game at Oracle Arena. The team will be moving to the Chase Center in San Francisco next season. The proud Warriors don't have Durant, but they know that now for sure going into this matchup. Proper adjustments will be made. They do have a healthy Klay Thompson, Kevin Looney and DeMarcus Cousins. That's enough firepower given the greatness of Stephen Curry. The Warriors have the talent, savvy and coaching to hold off the upstart Raptors.
|06-13-19||Saskatchewan v. Hamilton UNDER 48||17-23||Win||100||6 h 42 m||Show|
Chris Jones is gone. But he built a dominant defense for Saskatchewan. The Roughriders are going to be more run-oriented than other CFL teams, which is good for an Under. I see the Tiger-Cats being improved defensively with Orlando Steinauer taking over, but down offensively with offensive guru June Jones no longer the coach. The Under has cashed seven of the last 10 times the teams have met. Note, too, that since 2014 the Under has cashed 75 percent of the time (15-5) during Week 1.
|06-12-19||Brewers v. Astros -124||Top||6-3||Loss||-124||16 h 39 m||Show|
The oddsmaker is overrating the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff by making Houston such a short home favorite. The Astros haven't missed Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa going 28-8 (78%) during their last 36 games. The Astros have outstanding young talent to fill in while these superstars are out with injuries. Yordan Alvarez and Tyler White, two of these highly promising youngsters, slugged homers in helping Houston defeat Milwaukee, 10-8, on Tuesday. That loss dropped the Brewers to 1-8 in their last nine road interleague games. Woodruff has been pitching well for Milwaukee. But he's trumped by Justin Verlander, who is in the argument for best pitcher in the American League. Verlander is 9-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 0.74 WHIP. Opponents are batting only .151 against him. Verlander is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in two career starts versus the Brewers. Verlander has a 1.35 ERA at home this season. Woodruff has a 4.03 road ERA in five away starts this season.
|06-11-19||Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9||2-3||Win||100||14 h 21 m||Show|
This isn't such a big total to go Over for two American League teams. Unless those teams happen to be the Tigers and Royals. Detroit ranks last in the American League in runs scored. The Tigers also have hit the fewest homers in the league. The Royals rank 11th in the AL in runs. They have hit the second-fewest homers in the AL. Kansas City has scored three or fewer runs in seven of its last nine games. They are facing underrated Spencer Turnbull, who has given up three or fewer runs in 12 of his 13 starts. Turnbull has held the Royals to three earned runs in 13 innings for a 2.08 ERA in two starts against them this year. The Under has cashed in eight of Turnbull's last 11 starts. Kansas City is pitching Jakob Junis, who is better than his 5.63 ERA may indicate. Junis is 6-1 with a 3.27 ERA in nine lifetime appearances against the Tigers, including eight starts.
|06-11-19||Brewers v. Astros -111||Top||8-10||Win||100||15 h 8 m||Show|
It's rarely wrong to back the Astros especially when the price is fair, which it is here. Houston is 27-8 in its last 35 games and is tied for the best winning percentage in the majors. Houston has key injuries, but also has a very strong farm system. Because of that the Astros have been able to cover up their injuries. The Astros are 21-8 in Brad Peacock's last 29 starts. Peacock is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He's overshadowed in Houston by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But he's a tremendous pitcher giving up two runs or less in eight of his 11 starts. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight interleague road games. They are a solid National League club, but not at the Astros' elite level. Milwaukee is pitching Freddy Peralta, who has shown flashes but remains highly inconsistent. He has a 6.23 night ERA this season.
|06-11-19||Brewers v. Astros UNDER 9||8-10||Loss||-115||15 h 6 m||Show|
Since making a mechanical change, Brad Peacock has posted a 1.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in his past six starts spanning 34 innings. The Brewers are going to be in for some cultural shock having never faced Peacock. The Astros have never faced Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta either. Peralta has a high ceiling and already has had a number of dominating performances in just his second big league season. He is coming off his best start of the season, a 5-1 win against the Marlins in which he had nine strikeouts, gave up no walks and just four hits in six innings. Houston's offense is down with Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve all injured. It's a reason why the Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Astros' last 24 games. Both teams have upper tier bullpens. Each bullpen is rested, too, with the teams having been idle on Monday.
|06-10-19||Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5||Top||106-105||Loss||-110||13 h 45 m||Show|
I'm expecting Kevin Durant to play. That changes everything for Golden State especially on the offensive end. Toronto no longer will be able to double team and trap Stephen Curry. The Warriors already have Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney back in the lineup. So they have numerous scoring options. Golden State was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA this season while ranking first in field goal percentage. They also ranked No. 3 in 3-point shooting accuracy. The Over is 6-1-1 during the Warriors' last eight road games. The Raptors are averaging 112.5 points in the series. They aren't going to dial back their offense, which ranked eighth in scoring during the regular season and fifth in field goal percentage. Kawhi Leonard is unstoppable and the Raptors' bench has emerged as a scoring entity. The Over has cashed the past six times the Raptors have hosted the Warriors.
|06-10-19||Cardinals v. Marlins OVER 8||4-1||Loss||-109||9 h 36 m||Show|
It's a leap of faith to believe Michael Wacha is going to come in with a well-pitched game. He's in the midst of a dreadful season with a 6.30 ERA. The Marlins have picked up their offense scoring five or more runs in 11 of their last 19 games. The Cardinals' scoring is down lately. But the Cardinals just faced the Cubs drawing Cole Hamels, Jon Lester and Lance Hendricks with the wind blowing in at Wrigley Field during their series. St. Louis should find Sandy Alcantara and a horrendous Marlins bullpen much easier to solve. The Over is 7-2-1 the last 10 times the teams have met in Miami.
|06-10-19||A's v. Rays -1.5||2-6||Win||100||7 h 21 m||Show|
The A's have lost their last nine games when taking on an American League East opponent. Don't expect them to end that streak in this matchup. The spot and pitching matchup is so much against them that I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to get a much better price on Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay starter Charlie Morton is 7-0 with a 2.30 ERA. He has established himself as one of the better pitchers in the American League. Going for Oakland is Tanner Anderson. He pitched six games in relief for the Pirates last season and had a 6.35 ERA. This will be his big league starting debut. Anderson had a 6.26 ERA in 11 games in Triple A this season. The A's are in a desperate pitching spot after playing a doubleheader on Saturday and then playing again on Sunday not arriving in Tampa Bay until late. Tampa Bay is averaging 6.1 runs in its last seven games discounting a 5-1 loss to Boston.
|06-09-19||Bruins v. Blues -110||5-1||Loss||-110||12 h 25 m||Show|
St. Louis is playing better than Boston. Goalie Jordan Binnington is hot again. The Bruins' power play has gone cold. The Blues are home - and the price is right to back them. The home team has won six of the last eight times between these two teams. The Blues have been superior to the Bruins when the teams were at regular strength. Boston's key has been on special teams with its power play. But now that has gone cold failing to score the past five times spanning the last two games. Unfortunately bad officiating has played a part during these Stanley Cup playoffs. This is a random thing, but the Blues being the home team are the more likely to get a break. Binnington, who went 24-5-1 after arriving from the minors, is coming off a 38-save performance in the Blues' 2-1 road win this past Thursday in Game 5. He's allowed just three goals in the last two games.
|06-09-19||Nationals v. Padres OVER 7.5||Top||5-2||Loss||-100||10 h 8 m||Show|
Stephen Strasburg isn't going to lack movitation pitching in his hometown against the Padres. The Over, though, is 8-2 the past 10 times Strasburg has faced San Diego. Strasburg is backed by a horrific bullpen. The Nationals' only good reliever is closer Sean Doolittle, who has appeared in four of Washington's last five games, including the last two days. So Doolittle is carrying a fatigue rating. The Padres are an underrated power team ranking ninth in the majors in homers. Their offense is more dangerous with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. The Nationals should provide their share of runs as the Padres are going with a bullpen game probably starting Luis Perdomo. Adrian Johnson is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed in 60 percent of his 40 home plate appearances the past two years
|06-09-19||Braves v. Marlins +125||7-6||Loss||-100||7 h 4 m||Show|
I'll take a shot with the Marlins at this plus price. I favor Miami's starting pitching matchup and the Braves could be resting a starter or two, which would help even up the everyday lineup advantage. Pablo Lopez has been tremendous when pitching at Marlins Park this year going 2-1 with a 1.84 ERA in five home starts. Lopez is in good current form, too, with a 1.99 ERA in his last four starts. Opponents are batting .183 against him during this span. The opposite is true of Braves starter Max Fried. The lefty has a 5.18 ERA during his last eight starts. He's really looked bad in his last two starts giving up nine earned runs in 9 2/3 innings. Fried has a 5.63 career ERA in two starts versus the Marlins. Miami is 15-30 against righthanded starters this year. However, the Marlins are a far more respectable 8-9 when going against a southpaw starter.
|06-08-19||A's v. Rangers +119||1-3||Win||119||8 h 16 m||Show|
Texas starter Adrian Sampson is below-the-radar right now. He's developed a couple of new pitches and he has been pitching well winning his last four appearances. During this time Sampson has posted a 2.38 ERA. The Rangers enter play today ranked No. 2 in the majors in runs scored and are 12-4 in their last 16 home games. Texas draws righthander Chris Bassitt, who has pitched decently this season but has a 5.25 lifetime ERA against the Rangers in four appearances, including two starts. The Rangers enter today winning nine of their last 12 versus a righty starter.
|06-08-19||Orioles v. Astros OVER 9||4-1||Loss||-100||13 h 55 m||Show|
The Astros don't need injured Jose Altuve and George Springer to score at least four runs against Andrew Cashner and a bad Baltimore bullpen. Cashner has an above 5.00 ERA for the second straight season. Houston is averaging 6.3 runs in its last six games discounting a 14-1 loss to the Mariners. The Astros have scored at least four runs in six of their last seven games. The Over has cashed in eight of Cashner's last 10 starts. The Orioles could do some damage against Framber Valdez, a relief pitcher making his first start of the season. He's had control issues with a 1.35 WHIP having issued 37 walks in 63 innings. Ramon DeJesus is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 8-3 in his games as a home plate umpire this year.
|06-08-19||White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9||Top||2-0||Win||100||12 h 4 m||Show|
So who was the best pitcher in the American League during May? None other than Lucas Giolito, who this season has broken through and lived up to his vast potential. He is 7-0 with a 1.92 ERA in his last nine starts. Giolito should be able to tame a weak Royals lineup that ranks in the bottom 10 in runs and is without their second-leading home run hitter, Hunter Dozier. The Under is 6-0 in Giolito's last six starts. Brad Keller is going for the Royals. The Under is 5-1 in his last six starts. Keller hasn't given up a home run in his last seven starts. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs and 25th in homers. The weather forecast is for wind to be blowing in at eight mph. Another plus for the Under is Bruce Dreckman is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of his last 51 games behind the plate.
|06-08-19||White Sox -129 v. Royals||2-0||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
The White Sox are 7-0 in Lucas Giolito's last seven starts. It's no fluke as Giolito has emerged as one of the top pitchers in the American League. He's surrendered just five runs in his last six starts spanning 43 2/3 innings. Giolito is 5-0 with a 2.43 ERA in nine lifetime starts against the Royals, including defeating them, 4-3, on May 28 where he recorded 10 strikeouts. Kansas City is 1-7 in Keller's last eight starts. The Royals beat the White Sox, 6-4, on Friday. However, they are just 3-12 in their last 15 games and 1-8 following a victory. Kansas City also is 0-8 the past eight times when playing the second game of a series.
|06-07-19||Raptors v. Warriors -4.5||Top||105-92||Loss||-104||13 h 59 m||Show|
Perhaps the Raptors do win the NBA Finals. But I don't see the Warriors going down a second straight time at home especially with Klay Thompson expected to play. Call it a rhythm or zig-zag play, but the Warriors are due to shoot better in this series. The Raptors are fat and happy after upsetting the Warriors, 123-109, in Game 3 on Wednesday and knowing Kevin Durant remains out. Before pouring dirt over the Warriors, let's remember just two games ago in Game 2 at Toronto. The Warriors held the Raptors to 37.2 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. The result was a 109-104 Golden State victory. I see this Game 4 matchup resembling that Game 2. The Warriors have the big-game NBA Finals-pedigree, a powerful situational edge being home down 2-1 and the quality defense to clamp down on the Raptors, who have been getting far better shooting games from a number of players than what was realistically expected from them.
|06-07-19||A's +105 v. Rangers||5-3||Win||105||11 h 36 m||Show|
The oddsmaker opened a wrong favorite here. The A's have dominated the Rangers winning 25 of the past 34 meetings, including going 5-1 during their last six visits to Texas. The Rangers have lost the first game in 11 of their last 14 series. The A's are playing great on the road winning eight of their past nine. The pitching matchup pits Brett Anderson against Lance Lynn. Anderson has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. Lynn faced the A's on April 23 and was hammered for eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings. I'd rate Anderson a slight edge against Lynn and Oakland with a major edge when it comes to the bullpen.
|06-06-19||Blues v. Bruins OVER 5.5||2-1||Loss||-100||26 h 52 m||Show|
There have been at least six goals scored in three of the four playoff games in this Stanley Cup Final between the Blues and Bruins. Yet the oddsmaker still has yet to put up higher than 5 1/2 for a total. I see value in taking the Over especially with the series returning to Boston and considering the Bruins' injuries on defense. Boston is averaging 3.9 goals in its last 11 games. The Bruins followed up their Game 2 loss to the Blues by scoring seven goals in Game 3. I'm expecting a big game from the Bruins' top line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand after a 4-2 road loss to the Blues in Game 4 this past Monday. The Bruins have scored on 38 percent of their power play attempts in the series and should get some opportunities being home given the Blues' physical play. St. Louis has scored three or more goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Bruins are likely to be down two defensemen with Zdeno Chara doubtful with a broken jaw and Matt Grzelcyk also not likely to play due to a concussion.
|06-06-19||Orioles v. Rangers OVER 10.5||Top||3-4||Loss||-120||13 h 9 m||Show|
David Hess shouldn't be in a big league rotation. But he is. So the Over makes a worthy investment in this matchup. Hess has a 7.36 ERA. He's bad and so is Baltimore's bullpen. They are facing a Rangers squad that has scored the second-most runs in the majors. Texas starter Ariel Jurado pitched well in his last start. That was against the weak-hitting Royals, though. He also threw more than 100 pitches for the first time this season. The Rangers' bullpen is every bit as bad as the Orioles' bullpen. The temperature is going to reach the 90's and there will be a slight wind blowing out. So the weather conditions are favorable for the hitters.
|06-06-19||Braves v. Pirates UNDER 9.5||1-6||Win||105||7 h 32 m||Show|
Hey Kevin Glausman isn't pitching so the Under should be safe. Kidding aside, the pitching matchup is Mike Foltynewicz versus Chris Archer. Both Foltynewicz and Archer have struggled this season. But lately both have shown signs of pitching much better. Foltynewicz's fastball and slider have been sharper during his last three starts. Archer had his most efficient start of the year against the Brewers this past Friday. Archer has a 1.08 ERA in two career starts against Atlanta. There are other key elements that point to an Under. This is a day game following a late Wednesday night game that didn't end until after midnight due a two-hour rain delay. The Braves didn't have to use any of their best bullpen arms last night. There could be some key bats being rested because of the short turnaround and this being a getaway game. Rob Drake is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 17-9 (65 percent) the past two seasons when he has been behind the plate, including 8-2 Under this year.
|06-05-19||Marlins v. Brewers OVER 9||Top||8-3||Win||104||10 h 57 m||Show|
Thanks to the Marlins, I cashed an easy Over the total winner on these teams Tuesday. The over/under number is the same as Tuesday. So I am coming right back and going Over again in a pitching matchup of Sandy Alcantara against Jimmy Nelson.Milwaukee has hit the third-most homers in baseball. Alcantara is far from a fixture in Miami's starting rotation. He has a 4.08 ERA, which goes up to 5.11 when he pitches on the road. This will be his sixth away start. Nelson hasn't pitched in the majors during the last 21 months having been sidelined by elbow problems. He had a 3.75 ERA in four Triple A starts. It's asking a lot for Nelson to hold the hot-hitting Marlins in check. Nelson also isn't likely to pitch too far into the game. The Marlins are averaging 6.4 runs in their last 18 games. They have scored a staggering 34 runs in their last three games. The Over is 10-3-1 the past 14 times the teams have met at Miller Park. Note, too, that the slated home plate umpire is Tripp Gibson III. The Over has cashed in 60 percent of Gibson's last 112 appearances behind the plate spanning the last five seasons.
|06-04-19||Marlins v. Brewers OVER 9||Top||16-0||Win||105||13 h 24 m||Show|
The stats show the Marlins to be last in the league in runs scored averaging 3.3 runs a game. But that is misleading. The Marlins have made several recent changes to their lineup. The result is a much more respectable offense. Miami has scored four or more runs in nine of its last 13 games. The Marlins have plated at least five runs in eight of those games. Miami just scored a combined 18 runs in its last two games - both at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors. Now the Marlins visit Miller Park, one of the better hitting fields in baseball. The Over is 9-3-1 the past 13 times the teams have played in Milwaukee. The Brewers get to face Pablo Lopez. He has been tough at pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, but awful on the road with an 8.26 ERA in six away matchups. The Brewers faced Lopez last July 10. They scored five runs off him on six hits and three walks in six innings. I'm not expecting much from Lopez and a bad Miami bullpen in this road setting. The Brewers rank No. 3 in homers and 10th in runs scored. They are expected to get back Mike Moustakas and Travis Shaw to give them a lot of infield power. Chase Anderson will be on the hill for Milwaukee. He's split his time starting and relieving, having yet to throw more than five innings in a game this season. Anderson is a bottom of the rotation starter. So it's certainly not too much to expect each of these two teams to produce at least four runs apiece.
Tuesday Free Play
Nationals minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.25 (run line) hosting White SoxIt has taken two months, but the Nationals are finally rounding into form winning seven of their last nine games. A key for the Nationals is a return to health of a number of key batters. The danger with backing the Nationals - who are averaging 6.5 runs during their last nine games - is their horrible middle and setup relief pitching and Dave Martinez, who I regard as the worst manager in the majors. Those negatives should be overcome by the Nationals hosting the White Sox and going with Stephen Strasburg. I can't lay the asking price, so I'll take a shot on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs at greatly reduced juice. The White Sox just concluded a 6-1 homestand. Prior to that, though, they were outscored 26-5 by the Twins in their last three road games. The White Sox's last nine defeats have all been by more than one run. Chicago is 6-21 in its last 27 interleague road games. The White Sox are going with Reynaldo Lopez, who is pitching against his former team. The flip side to Lopez's obvious extra motivation is the Nationals know him while the current White Sox are unfamiliar with Strasburg. Lopez is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA. He has been at his worst on the road where his ERA is 7.78. The White Sox have lost in his last five road starts. Lopez is in bad current form, too, allowing 13 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 9 1/3 innings. By contrast, Strasburg has a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts. Strasburg has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He is an elite pitcher especially when pitching at Nationals Park. Washington is 29-10 (74 percent) in Strasburg's last 39 home starts versus sub .500 teams.
|06-03-19||Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5||Top||3-1||Win||103||16 h 9 m||Show|
Both teams have been swinging hot bats. The Dodgers have a very potent offense. I acknowledge all this before stating my case for the Under. However, I see a pitching duel between Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray. Buehler is one of my favorite young pitchers. He's been solid on the road, too, with a 3-1 record a 3.94 ERA in road games this season. Ray has limited opponents to a .216 batting average in four home starts. Ray has a career-mark of 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Dodgers. Ray is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. He has whiffed 130 Dodgers hitters in 95 2/3 innings. The Dodgers have a top closer in Kenley Jansen while Greg Holland is enjoying a fine season as Arizona's closer.