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Nick Pivetta is one of the reasons why the Padres are 27-15 at home. Pivetta is 6-0 pitching in San Diego with a 2.55 ERA this year.

By contrast, Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.35 career road ERA. Kelly has a 3.43 home ERA this season compared to 3.69 on the road.

The Padres have a clear bullpen edge, too. They have the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA at 3.31. The Diamondbacks have the third-highest relief pitching ERA at 5.05.

Both Las Vegas and New York are down from last season. The Liberty have an excuse - they've been without star center Jonquel Jones for their last nine games. Minus Jones, the Liberty are giving up 88.1 points a game. That would rank second-to-last if it were for the entire season.

The Aces haven't been right defensively all season ranking ninth in scoring and defensive field goal percentage, 10th in 3-point defense and 11th in defensive rebounding out of the 13 teams.

Each team, though, has multiple star scorers and plenty of pride. So I see a shootout here. 

A'ja Wilson is averaging 23.1 points and 48.7 percent shooting from the floor since returning from injury seven games ago. The Aces are the best free throw shooting team in the league. Wilson should have a big game without Jones to impede her progress. 

Sharpshooter Sabrina Ionescu has picked up her 3-point shooting. So she should have a big scoring game, too, along with superstar teammate Breanna Stewart.

The Mercury have short revenge after being upset, 98-89, by the Wings as 11 1/2-point road favorites four days ago. 

The teams haven't played since, but much has changed - on the Phoenix side.

The Mercury won't have their two best scorers, Satou Sabally (ankle) and Kahleah Cooper (hamstring. Those two average nearly a combined 33 points a game. Their absence means more minutes for role players Natasha Mack, Murjanatu Musa and Kitija Laksa, who are not known for their offense. 

The Wings have improved their defense. The Mercury should be primed for a strong, intense defensive effort, too. I'm not expecting a fast pace either in this matchup as the Mercury will be much more deliberate in their offensive sets without two of their stars.

Credit to the Marlins for winning 10 of their last 13 games. However, this is a bad spot and pitching matchup for Miami.

The Marlins haven't been on the road this month. They have a losing away record. Cincinnati is 24-19 at home.

I'm not a fan of Miami starter Janson Junk. He has been on the fringe of the majors since 2021. The Marlins are his fourth team. His career numbers are 3-4 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 77 1/3 innings. He's never pitched at Great American Ball Park either, one of the best hitting parks in the majors.

Reds starter Brady Singer is more consistent. He's compiled a 4-3 record, 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP when pitching at Great American Ball Park. Singer is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two previous starts against the Marlins.

The Giants have scored 6 or more runs in three of their last four games. Now they are playing at Sutter Park, the A's minor league park in Sacramento which has become the Coors Field of the American League with its hitter-friendly dimensions. 

San Francisco draws Jacob Lopez, who had been pitching above his head until recently. He couldn't get out of the fourth inning in his last start, giving up three earned runs on five hits and a walk in 3 1/3 innings against the Rays. Lopez has a 3.88 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and allows 1.4 homers per nine innings. 

The A's have the second-highest bullpen ERA at 5.75. Their only decent reliever is closer Mason Miller and he has a 4.55 ERA. 

The A's get to face Hayden Birdsong, who is coming close to the 72 innings he pitched last season. Birdsong has a 7.54 ERA in his last five starts. He's clearly been struggling and Sutter Park is not a place for a pitcher to get well. 

The A's have scored 5 or more runs in five of their last seven games. They rank among the top-10 in most homers in the majors.

The marketplace has reacted to the quarterback information in this matchup by betting against Montreal. Makes sense. BC gets its best QB, Nathan Rourke, back while the Alouettes won't have their starting QB, Davis Alexander, due to a hamstring injury. Rourke had missed the Lions' last two games.

Montreal suffered its first loss in four games without Alexander last week, losing to Hamilton, 35-17, on the road. Sure I'd rather have Alexander than McLeod Bethel-Thompson. But Bethel-Thompson should play better this week. The reduction in points is worth it since the Alouttes are home off a loss and have the superior defense.

BC has dropped three in a row since an opening week win against winless Edmonton.

It's Montreal's first home game since opening week. BC has lost four consecutive road games dating back to last season.

The Sparks have star power led by Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby. Despite those two and other good scorers, Los Angeles has the second-worst record in the WNBA at 5-13. The major reasons for that are bad defense and lack of rebounding.

Indiana can take advantage of that even missing Caitlin Clark for another game. Kelsey Mitchell is averaging 22 points in the last five games. The Fever can exploit the Sparks on the boards, too, with All-Star center Aliyah Boston and veteran forward Natasha Howard.

The Fever shouldn't have any letdown following a 27-point home win against the Aces from Thursday. That's because the Sparks defeated them as six-point road 'dogs, 85-75, on June 26. Indiana shot just 37 percent from the floor and made only 7 of 28 3-pointers.

The Sparks have surrendered 85 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games. Los Angeles, though, has scored 85 or more points in three of its last four games.

This is a low enough price for me to get involved with the Giants knowing I have Robbie Ray starting backed by a bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

The kicker is Ray and the Giants get to face Brandon Pfaadt. Pitching wins can be misleading. That's clearly the case with Pfaadt, who is 8-5. That record comes with a 5.38 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. 

Pfaadt hasn't fared well against San Francisco this season with an 0-3 record and 4.82 ERA. He has a lifetime 5.20 ERA when pitching at hitter-friend Chase Field.

Winnipeg is 3-0. But the Blue Bombers are stepping up in class after beating Edmonton and BC twice. The combined record of those two teams is 1-6. 

Calgary pulled upsets against Hamilton and Toronto before getting upset at home two weeks ago by Ottawa. The Stampeders were idle last week. They have the advantage of rest and home field, which should mean a lot since this game has become part of the festivities of the Stampede, one of the biggest outdoor events in Western Canada. 

The Stampeders have the quarterback, Vernon Adams Jr., and top-notch runner, Dedrick Mills, to outscore the Blue Bombers while effectively playing ball-control. 

Adams has thrown for 1,061 yards and five TD's against the Blue Bombers the past two seasons. The Stampeders' offense has more stability with Adams under center.

The Blue Bombers needed a big fourth quarter to defeat Edmonton last week. Winnipeg isn't as good as its unbeaten record shows. The Blue Bombers are ripe to be upset. The situation and quality of opposition lays out well here for that upset to occur.

Los Angeles ranks second-to-last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Sparks are giving up an average of 86.8 points a game.

New York, though, is even worse if you go by the last seven games. Missing their best rebounder and tough interior defender, injured Jonquel Jones, the Liberty are surrendering 90.7 points per game during their past seven games. If that was computed for the entire season, the Liberty would rank last defensively in the WNBA.

The Sparks have the offensive firepower to take advantage with Dearica Hamby, Kelsey Plum and Azura Stevens, one of the most underrated players in the league. LA has scored at least 85 points in each of its last three games.

The prideful defending champion Liberty are back home having been on the road for their last four games. They are 1-4 in their past five games. The Liberty are in stop-the-pain mode. They've been idle since Sunday.

I'm expecting a huge scoring game from the Liberty led by Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu. Stewart is the WNBA's third-leading scorer and Ionescu is the 10th-leading scorer. The Sparks lack the defense to stop them.

It took nearly all season, but the Rangers finally are scoring runs. They are averaging six runs a game during their last seven games. Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia finally are coming around.

The Rangers should keep up their scoring facing soft-tossing Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 16 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 17 2/3 innings.

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well for Texas this season, but this is only his second start since a month-long stay on the injured list due to elbow inflammation. He's backed by an unsteady Rangers bullpen.

The Orioles are averaging 8.4 runs during their last five games.

Jose Berrios has a history of pitching much better at home and he's in tremendous form. Berrios hasn't allowed a run during his last two starts spanning 14 2/3 innings. Berrios' lifetime home ERA is one run lower than his road ERA.

The Yankees have surrendered an average of six runs a game during their last four games. They have huge offensive holes in the middle of their infield where Anthony Volpe is batting a puny .225 and D.J. LeMahieu looks washed-up. 

Yankees starter Will Warren has a 4.37 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Warren's road ERA is 5.54. 

Toronto is averaging 6.5 runs in its last eight games with a number of their players enjoying breakout offensive seasons.

Giants starter Hayden Birdsong has been up and down this season. Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen has been bad all season, one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball.

San Francisco can back Birdsong with the lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Given these factors, I like the Giants getting a plus price to beat Arizona.

Gallen is 5-9 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. That already bad ERA jumps to 7.04 if you go by his last seven starts.

The Diamondbacks have the better offense, but are without dynamic injured Corbin Carroll. The Giants' offense should show better getting to play at hitter-friendly Chase Field.

This game doesn't count on the regular season standings. But the intensity level should be even higher because this is the championship game of the WNBA Commissioner's Cup. The winner earns $500,000, which isn't chump change especially to WNBA players.

Caitlin Clark has missed Indiana's last two games because of a groin strain. She's questionable. I like the Under with or without Clark. The injury obviously has caused her shooting to be off. Clark has missed an unbelievable 22 of her last 23 3-pointers.

Minnesota is the No. 1 defensive team in the league surrendering just 74.2 points per game. The Lynx also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Lynx center Napheesa Collier is the incumbent Defensive Player of the Year. That's bad news for Fever center Aliyah Boston, who has reached star level and is averaging 21 points during her past five games.

If Clark is limited and Boston is controlled by Collier, the Fever will be severely impacted offensively. The Lynx are a deliberate team so the pace shouldn't be fast.

If this pitching matchup were set for San Francisco, I wouldn't have gotten involved. But this game is in Arizona, which changes everything.

Logan Webb is dominant at home with a 2.62 ERA when pitching in San Francisco. On the road, though, that ERA shoots up to 4.04. The Diamondbacks can score, too, ranking third in runs and OPS and fifth in homers.

Arizona's Ryne Nelson has been better as a starter than a reliever. He also has pitched much better at home with a 2.25 ERA compared to 5.34 on the road.

Nelson has a lower bar than Webb as the Giants have a bottom-seven offense. San Francisco has scored only five runs in its last three games.

Michael Wacha lacks star power. He is consistent, though. You have to give him that. He has given up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 16 starts, never more than five runs in a game. He's averaging six strikeouts a game during his last five starts.

The Mariners are batting .221 at home, which is the lowest home batting average in the majors.

Seattle starter George Kirby isn't back to his pre-injury All-Star form of two seasons ago. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, having surrendered 38 hits in 36 2/3 innings.

Having added top-12 stars Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas to holdout Kahleah Cooper, the Mercury have the potential to be a huge scoring team. That potential has started to manifest itself.

Phoenix is the hottest team in the WNBA having won six in a row. The Mercury are hitting their scoring stride averaging 100.6 points in their last three games with two of those games occurring against one of the best defensive teams in the league, New York. 

Now the Mercury get the desperate and defensively-challenged Aces at home. Las Vegas is ninth defensively and 11th in defensive field goal percentage. If the Aces are going to even their record at 8-8 with an upset of the Mercury, they're going to have to do it on the offensive end. 

The Aces are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the WNBA. Yet they got to shoot only 12 free throws at home against the Mystics, in a 94-83 loss this past Thursday. 

A'Ja Wilson still is the best player in the league - and she's highly frustrated. The Mercury have allowed an average of 23.3 free throws during their last three games. Look for the Aces to feed Wilson. The Aces know the only way to stay with the Mercury is to go at them hard with Wilson and match them on the offensive end because their defense isn't good enough. 

The Aces have the firepower to do this with Wilson, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Jewell Loyd.

The Rockies could be the worst team of the modern era with an 18-65 record. When the Rockies lose, they lose by multiple runs. Colorado has lost by more than one run in 17 of its past 18 defeats (94 percent).

I'm going to fade the Rockies here on the run line backing the Brewers. Yes, Milwaukee is the home team. Normally I don't like to lay 1 1/2 runs with the home team, but this is offset by the Rockies having the lowest road on-base percentage while averaging a mere three runs in their away games.

Colorado starter German Marquez has a 5.79 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Milwaukee starter Chad Patrick has a 3.72 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. The Rockies' bullpen has the fifth-highest ERA.

The Mystics are playing their best ball of the season winning four of their last five games, including the past three. They tied for the best point spread record last season and have covered six of their last eight games. 

I like the Mystics to beat the Wings today. 

Dallas is playing on consecutive days for the first time this season. The Wings had a huge game last night selling out American Airlines Center with 20,409 fans in attendance to watch them host Indiana. The Fever didn't have Caitlin Clark, but still beat Dallas, 94-86. The Wings played well in spurts. They just aren't a good team. 

The Wings have one win against an above .500 team. That was against Atlanta. The only other teams the Wings have defeated are the expansion Valkyries and Connecticut, which has the worst record in the WNBA at 2-14. 

I don't see the Wings being up for this game like they were last night. They aren't good enough to beat the Mystics unless they play well. 
The Mystics have taken off since center Shakira Austin returned from injury. Austin is averaging 20.2 points and 9.2 rebounds in her last four games.

The Mystics have excellent depth. Their leading scorer, guard Brittney Skyes, has been out. But Sug Sutton and Lucy Olsen have done a good job filling in. 

Paige Bueckers is going to be the rookie-of-the-year. But Washington has the next two best rookies in Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

It was no fluke the Mercury upset the Liberty, 89-81, as 11 1/2-point road 'dogs eight days ago. Phoenix is playing much better than New York.

The Mercury are home and at full strength while the Liberty remains without injured star and their top rebounder, Jonquel Jones (ankle), and key rotation player Leonie Fiebich (playing for Germany).

The Mercury are the hottest team in the league with five straight victories. They are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.

The Liberty are 2-3 in their last five games, 0-5 ATS. This is their third consecutive road game and third game in six days. They barely held off the expansion Valkyries two days ago winning, 81-78.

Phoenix has its three stars healthy - Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Cooper. The Mercury are averaging 89.6 points during their past five games. New York is averaging 80.3 points in its last three games.

The timing is perfect for the Mercury to make a major statement at home by knocking off the reeling defending league champions.

The underrated Blue Jays' offense has the third-highest batting average in the majors. Toronto is averaging 6.6 runs per game in its last three games and now comes to hitter-friendly Fenway Park to face Brayan Bello, who has a 3.31 ERA with a fat 1.41 WHIP. 

Bello has thrown 208 pitches in his last two starts. That's his highest two-game pitch count of the season. 

Boston ranks ninth in the majors in runs. They draw Jose Berrios, who pitches much worse on the road. Berrios has a 3.53 lifetime home ERA compared to 4.56 road ERA. Berrios' road ERA is again higher on the road this year.

Everything lines up here for the Rays, including line value, making this a very strong play.

The Rays have won 74 percent of their last 35 games going 26-9. The Orioles remain a huge disappointment. They've lost four of their last five games to drop to 34-46, the third-worst record in the American League.

Tampa Bay has a strong pitching edge here, too, with Rayn Pepiot facing regressing Tomoyuki Sugano.

Pepiot has a 1.64 ERA in his last six starts. The Rays are 6-1 when he's been a road favorite this season. He is 2-1 with a 2.79 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 19 1/3 career innings against Baltimore.

Pepiot is backed by a deep Tampa Bay bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors.

Soft-tossing Sugano came to the majors this season after many years in Japan. The league has figured him out. Sugano has a 6.39 ERA with a 2.28 WHIP in his last three starts, spanning only 12 2/3 innings. He has yet to complete five innings during any of his last three starts. The Orioles are vulnerable in middle relief.

Big total here, but it's completely justified. 

The Dodgers are first in many major offensive categories, including runs, homers, RBI's and OPS. They get to face Austin Gomber, a terrible pitcher with an 8.38 ERA and 1.66 WHIP this season. This is just Gomber's third start, but his ERA the previous three years is 4.75, 5.50 and 5.56. 
LA is averaging 10 runs in its last three games. 

Clayton Kershaw draws the start for LA. I'm surprised the Dodgers want him to even pitch at Coors Field, which has been the worst ballpark he's pitched at. Kershaw has a 4.64 ERA in 27 career starts at Coors Field - and that was when he was in his prime. The ERA balloons to 7.11 when pitching a day game at Coors. This will be his ninth day-game start at Colorado.

The Rockies hit much better at Coors. They rank ninth in home slugging percentage and 11th in home batting average.

The expansion Valkyries are an amazing 7-6. They are only two wins away from going Over their season win total. Golden State doesn't have a winning record because of its offense.
 
The Valkyries are the worst 3-point shooting team in the WNBA and rank second-to-last in field goal percentage. The Valkyries, though, are disciplined, well-coached and intense on defense rating fifth in the league and third in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State has held its last six opponents to an average of only 72.6 points. 

Golden State doesn't come close to having the star power New York does. But the Liberty could be without two of their three biggest stars. Jonquel Jones is out with an ankle injury. Sabrian Ionescu is questionable after she missed the Liberty's last game with a neck injury.

The Liberty lost that game to the Storm three days ago. They are going to be up for this game because of that. 

Even though Breanna Stewart and Ionescu are great scorers, the Liberty has the best defensive rating in the WNBA. New York gives up the second-fewest points per game at 76.3 and is first in defensive field goal percentage. 

The two teams met twice late last month. Both games went Under. The Liberty held the Valkyries to an average of 72 points during those games, both victories.

When pitching at Oracle Park, Logan Webb might be the best pitcher in baseball. He has a 1.35 ERA this season pitching there this season and has a career home mark of a 2.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 76 starts.

Webb is backed by a San Francisco bullpen that has the lowest ERA in the majors by a wide margin at 2.63.

The Marlins rank 23rd in runs and 27th in homers.

The Marlins should do their part to keep this total Under as they will be starting Edward Cabrera. He's been dominant in his last five starts with a 1.46 ERA giving up four earned runs in 24 2/3 innings during that stretch. The Giants couldn't score against Cabrera when they last faced him on May 31 getting blanked for 5 2/3 innings.

Cabrera is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Giants.

San Francisco is 19th in runs and ranks 24th in homers, batting average and OPS.

Retooled Indiana was supposed to be good enough to challenge for the WNBA title this season. Through 13 games, it hasn't gone that way for the 6-7 Fever.

Caitlin Clark is back from injury, but has missed 16 of 17 3-point shots during the past two games. The Fever lost each of those games falling to the expansion Valkyries and the Aces, who are below .500 themselves. Things are not looking up for the Fever as they play their third road game in a row taking on hot Seattle.

The Storm are playing their best ball winning six of their last seven games. Seattle has defeated much better teams than the Fever during this span, including the Lynx and defending champion Liberty although New York was missing two of its three best players in that game, Sabrina Ionescu and Jonquel Jones.

This point spread is too low considering the circumstances. Seattle has won three in a row. The Storm's confidence is up and they are home. Nneka Ogwumike may be the hottest player in the WNBA averaging 25.7 points in her last three games. Skylar Diggins is an elite guard and Gabby Williams is the most underrated player in the league. Opponents get sky high for the Fever because of the presence of Clark and the media attention she brings.

The timing is bad right now for Indiana. Stephanie White was supposed to be a huge coaching upgrade on Christie Sides. White hasn't cleaned that low bar yet. White already has missed a couple of games due to personal reasons. Not a good look with this being her first year coaching the Fever.

Morale is not good for the Fever. Critics are saying White isn't running the right offense for Clark. The Fever was supposed to have upgraded their bench. But core veteran DeWanna Bonner is out for personal reasons and the reserves have been underwhelming during the current road trip.  

Clark and White are proven winners. They likely will get their ship back on the right course. But for now, they can't be backed.

I was on the Diamondbacks Monday at a fair price and was rewarded with a rocking chair, 10-0, winner. I see no reason to get off the Diamondbacks today where the price is cheaper and the pitching matchup is just as good.

The White Sox have the second-worst record in baseball at 25-54. This includes a 2-10 record in their past dozen games. 

Arizona is 9-4 in its last 13 games. The Diamondbacks have lost 16 fewer games than the White Sox. 

Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson has allowed just one earned run in his past two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. 

This is going to be a bullpen game for the White Sox, whose bullpen ERA is among the 12-worst.

I have a lot of confidence in Spencer Strider after his last two starts. I share no such confidence in Frankie Montas, who is set to make his season debut for the Mets today.

I expect the Braves to move their season record to 5-0 versus the cold Mets today. So I'm laying the road price with Atlanta. 

Strider is showing definite signs of returning to his elite status, allowing only one run during his past two starts spanning 12 innings. During this time span, Strider has a 21-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio with his velocity being up. The Braves are 8-3 in their past 11 games. 

The Mets are struggling going 1-9 in their last 10 games with six of those losses being by four or more runs. 

I don't see Montas being a stopper. Montas was 4-8 last season with a 5.01 ERA after missing 2023. He's been out with a lat injury. Montas made six rehab starts in the minors and looked terrible with a 12.05 ERA. 

That doesn't bode well for him here, or the Mets.

I'm not fond of either starting pitcher, Walker Buehler nor Jack Kochanowicz, but the Red Sox are the superior team and have a way better bullpen. The price is low enough to back Boston.

I wouldn't rate Buehler ahead of many starters as he struggles to regain the ace dominance he showed with the Dodgers before injuries. Kochanowicz, though, is one of those pitchers. Kochanowicz is 3-8 and carries a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 ratio.

Boston's bullpen carries the sixth lowest ERA. Red Sox relievers are in great current form, too, with a 1.11 ERA and 0.90 ratio during their last 10 games. By contrast, the Angels' bullpen has the third-highest ERA in the majors at 5.30.

The Red Sox are 10-4 in their last 14 games. They've won three more games than the Angels this season despite playing in a tougher division.

The Mets are going through a tough stretch. They are 1-8 in their last nine games with six of these losses occurring by at least four runs. I don't see New York ending its slump today in a pitching matchup of Spencer Schwellenbach versus Paul Blackburn.

Schwellenbach has a career 1.93 ERA against the Mets in 28 innings. He has a 3.26 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the season compared to Blackburn, who has a 6.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. It doesn't speak well of the Mets' starting rotation that Blackburn is in it.

The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 games. They just swept a 3-game series against the Mets last Tuesday-Thursday.

The expansion Valkyries have been a major storyline in the WNBA going 6-6. They are the biggest overachievers in the league.

Now, for the first  time, the Valkyries are favored. And it's by a huge number.

Connecticut is way down this season. But the Sun are a prideful team having gone deep into the playoffs the past few years. They still have some star power with Marina Mabrey and Tina Charles. That gives the Sun the two best players on the court.

Golden State has never been in this position before as big chalk. I prefer the Valkyries as underdogs. They are well-coached and scrappy. However, they do not have much talent on their team. Their roster is full of good role-type players rather than stars.

It's a sandwich spot, too, for the Valkyries. They are off a hugely-satisfying, 88-77, home win against the Fever and Caitlin Clark. The Valkyries host the defending champion Liberty in their next game. So they can be excused if they don't approach this matchup with their normal intensity. If the Valkyries aren't playing well, I don't see them covering a game in this point spread range.

Can the Pacers become only the third team in the last 47 years to win a Game 7 NBA Championship Series on the road?

No.

The marketplace is in love with the Pacers for this Game 7. The oddsmaker opened Oklahoma City minus 9. Many bettors remember what they last saw and that was the Pacers wiping out the Thunder, 108-91, in Game 6.

That game was in Indiana. This one is in Oklahoma City where the Thunder have a home net rating of plus 20.7 in the playoffs. Oklahoma City also is 6-0 following a loss in the postseason. Indiana has not beaten Oklahoma City twice in a row during the series. The Pacers have lost by 11 and 16 points in their last two away games versus the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is the best defensive team in the NBA. No team creates more turnovers than the Thunder. Indiana's most dynamic player, Tyrese Haliburton, is not 100 percent. If the Pacers fall behind, which I expect, they will get desperate with this being Game 7. That could lead to even a larger winning margin for the Thunder.

Already having to bat in the best pitcher's park in the league, Royals and Padres hitters also are going to have to deal with a rare late afternoon start at San Diego's Petco Park. Game time is 4 p.m. West Coast time. That means batters also have to adjust and deal with shadows and twilight.

So this sets up as a real pitcher's duel with two good starters and both bullpens having ERA's among the seven best in baseball.

Lefty Noah Cameron will be making his eighth start of the season. He has been what the Royals were hoping they would get out of Cole Ragans this season. Cameron has been absolutely magnificent with a 1.91 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The Padres have a below average offense. They also rank 23rd in slugging percentage versus southpaws.

Dylan Cease will be on the hill for San Diego. He's having a down year, but his strikeouts are still there: 105 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings.  

Cease doesn't have a high bar here. The Royals rank 29th in runs and homers.

Saskatchewan is 2-0. Toronto is 0-2 and has been outscored, 57-29. The Argos are a go-against as long their defense looks terrible and stiff Nick Arbuckle remains at quarterback until injured Chad Kelly returns.

The Roughriders can attack an inexperienced Argos defense that just lost perhaps their best defender, Wynton McManis, to injury last week by running the ball down their throat. Saskatchewan has AJ Ouellette, one of the best running backs in the CFL, to go with Thomas Bertrand-Hudon and Ka'Deem Carey.

I have no confidence in Arbuckle, who has four interceptions in two games, and is playing behind what already is a beat-up offensive line. The Roughriders' defensive strength is their defensive line. If the Argos are going to pull the upset, Arbuckle has to play well. I don't see that happening.

This isn't the best of spots for Atlanta. The Dream are back home for the first time in a week. They just lost to the Liberty, 86-81, in a marquee road game this past Tuesday.

After this game, the Dream host the Sky in a Sunday day matchup. That's a bigger game for Atlanta because of the Sky being so high-profile with Angel Reese.

The Mystics have rapid revenge for an embarrassing, 89-56, home loss to the Dream five days ago. Washington shot only 30 percent from the floor and missed 14 of 17 3-point tries.

That's the only game of their last four games Washington hasn't covered. The Mystics received a confidence boost with a 79-72 road victory against the Sky three days ago in their last game. Center Shakira Austin had her best game of the season for Washington. She's an underrated, key player for the Mystics.

The Mystics haven't been good offensively, but they are above average defensively and are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team.

I'm backing the Pacers knowing they might not have Tyrese Haliburton, or a severely banged-up Haliburton if he does play.

There is one certainty for this Game 6 matchup. The Pacers are home, in must-win mode and will be playing their guts out. Here's another fact, the Thunder are 1-8 ATS on the road during the playoffs. They just are not trustworthy away from Oklahoma City.

Indiana happens to be 3-0 ATS in Game 6's and 3-0 ATS when facing elimination under elite coach Rick Carlisle.  

The Pacers have had the stronger bench and all five of their starters averaged double-digits this season. They have the depth with T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard to compensate for Haliburton's situation. McConnell is playing at a high level averaging 11.2 points, 4.2 assists and two steals a game during 18 minutes of playing time.

New York is the highest-scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.1 points a game. The Liberty has been amazingly consistent on the offensive end scoring at least 85 points in 10 of their 11 games.

The Liberty, though, has allowed an average of 91.5 points during their last two games. Those games were against the Dream and Fever, both of whom have mulitple offensive stars in their lineup. Phoenix also has stars in its lineup.

The Mercury greatly upgraded their roster during the off-season bringing in Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to join Kahleah Cooper. The Mercury are averaging 84 points in their last three games. Their offense is picking up with Cooper back after being out. 

Phoenix did play last night, defeating Connecticut. Prior to that, though, the Mercury had not played in three days. They should be up for this marquee matchup after failing to cover as double-digit favorites against the Sun.

Quietly without a lot of hoopla, the Rays are only 2 1/2 games out of first place in the AL East. The Rays are 10-4 in their last 14 games, have nine more wins than the Orioles, are home and hold a pitching edge.

Given all of these advantages, I believe the price is low enough to back Tampa Bay.

Rays starter Taj Bradley remains intriguing. He does go hot and cold, though. Right now he's been more on than off giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Orioles' offense looks much better on paper. Baltimore ranks only 24th in runs despite playing in one of the top hitter's parks.

Bradley is backed by an elite Rays bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.08.

Getting the start for Baltimore is Trevor Rogers, who is freshly promoted from the minors. He had a 5.51 ERA - in the minors.

Not only is Connecticut 2-9 and arguably the worst team in the WNBA. But the Sun have to play on consecutive days, something extremely rare in the WNBA. 

The Sun have to do this, too, traveling and off a physical, dirty game on the road against Indiana last night. There were multiple technical fouls called in the game and two Connecticut players were ejected, Jacy Sheldon and Lindsay Allen. A third Connecticut player, Marina Mabrey, should have been ejected for shoving Caitlin Clark to the floor.

Tina Charles played a game-high 30 minutes. The 36-year-old Charles is Connecticut's best front-court player. You have to think she could be rested for this matchup.

All in all, it's simply one of the worst spots of the season for one of the worst teams.

Phoenix loaded up during the off-season getting Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally to join holdover star Kahleah Cooper, who is back healthy. Thomas and Sabally are among the best dozen players in the league. Thomas should be especially motivated returning to Connecticut having played 11 years for the Sun. 

The Mercury are 8-4, finding their stride with a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games. They last played on Sunday.

The evidence is overwhelming. Edmonton and Florida have now played five games in this Stanley Cup Final. All five games have gone Over the total. There have been a minimum of seven goals scored in each contest. The combined average score for the series is 7.8 goals.

Now we've reached the first closeout opportunity with the Panthers ahead 3-2. That could mean a lot of late open-net goals if the favored Panthers are leading during the final few minutes.

Superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl draw the attention. Draisaitl has produced a series-best eight points. But the Panthers also have been getting excellent scoring. Brad Marchand and Sam Bennett have combined for 11 goals. Congrats to anyone who had a prop with Bennett to get a point in every game because he has done exactly that.

If you discount a 3-0 loss to Carolina, Florida is averaging 5 goals a game in its last 10 games. The Oilers have scored 4 or more goals in six of their past eight games.

At 5-5, the expansion Valkyries are way ahead of their projected season win total of 8 1/2. Natalie Nakase would get my vote for Coach of the Year if the season ended today.

Unfortunately for Golden State it doesn't.

Things are about to get a lot worse for the Valkyries. That's because EuroBasket 2025 starts Wednesday. Golden State will be missing four of its top seven players because of it. The Valkyries will be missing two of their three best players - Temi Fagbenle, who is competing in EuroBasket, and injured Tiffany Hayes - not to mention losing much of their depth.

The timing for this game couldn't be better for Dallas. The Wings are in dire condition at a league-worst 1-11 after blowing an 11-point lead against the Aces with 3:34 left during their last game, this past Friday.

Dallas is the biggest underachievers in the league. First-year coach Chris Koclanes is coming under heavy fire. This is a true circle-the-wagons game for the Wings.

Dallas has the talent. Paige Bueckers is living up to the high expectations of being the No. 1 overall draft pick and future superstar. She's averaging 17.4 points, 6.1 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Arike Ogunbowale was the MVP of last year's All-Star game. DiJonai Carrington gives the Wings the three best players on the court.

I don't believe the marketplace is fully appreciating starting pitchers Matthew Liberatore and Shane Smith, nor putting enough weight on lack of recent production from both the Cardinals and White Sox. This total is being bet up, something I disagree with enough now to get involved with the Under. 

Liberatore has endured a rough patch during his last three starts. However, he had given up two earned runs or fewer during his previous eight starts. I see Liberatore getting turned around going against the weak-hitting White Sox, who are averaging 2.2 runs in their last five games. The White Sox rank among the bottom-four in runs, batting average, homers and OPS. 

Smith has pitched well enough to draw All-Star consideration. He has a 2.37 ERA and hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs in any of his 13 starts. Smith has allowed only one earned run in his past two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. St. Louis has scored 2 or fewer runs in four of its past five games.

This low total would make sense if Logan Gilbert was back to his ace form, not rusty, and the Red Sox were pitching Pedro Martinez instead of Lucas Giolito. That's not the case here.

Giolito can come up with a rare gem once in a while that keeps him in the rotation. Mostly, though, he's bad with the season statistics to back that up - 5.45 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and a 1.4 home run allowance per nine innings. Boston is one of the worst fielding teams in baseball, too.

Led by Cal Raleigh, the No. 2 home run hitter in the majors with 26, Seattle ranks seventh in homers and 12th in runs. The Mariners just scored a combined 17 runs in their last three games, at home, against the respected pitching of the Guardians.

Gilbert has a Cy Young-type ceiling. But he's been hurt. This will be his first big league appearance since April 25. So not only could he be rusty, but also figures to be on a pitch count. The Red Sox are the fifth-highest scoring team in the majors.

I've seen enough. I don't know if the Pacers are quite good enough to win this championship series, but they sure are worthy of hanging around. So I'm not turning down this many points.

Yes, Oklahoma City has proven tough at home. Indiana, though, hasn't been chopped liver on the road in the postseason going 7-3 SU and ATS. The Pacers also have covered 66 percent of the time the past 74 times following a home loss.

I thought the Thunder would have a bench advantage. That hasn't been the case. Indiana has been able to play faster than Oklahoma City is comfortable with no matter what players are on the floor.

The series is tied at 2-2. That's because the Thunder got past the Pacers on the road in Game 4 after Indiana won Game 3 at home, 116-107. The Pacers could have won that Game 4, too. They certainly are not outclassed in this series, which this lopsided point spread indicates.

The points are too generous for me to pass up.

It's not a surprise Phoenix is a road favorite against Las Vegas. The Aces are way down from their championship team of two seasons ago and are without reigning league MVP, A'Ja Wilson. She remains sidelined being in concussion protocol. Wilson's importance can't be stressed enough. She leads the Aces in points (20.9), rebounds (9.6 rebounds) and assists (4.0). She also prevents opponents from driving the lane with her defense and shot-blocking.

The Aces had not been playing well even with Wilson. Their only victory against an above .500 team was against the 6-5 Storm.

Phoenix has the second-best record in the Western Conference at 7-4. The Mercury rank fourth defensively giving up 78.3 points a game. By contrast, the Aces rank ninth defensively permitting 84 points a game and now they don't have Wilson.

The 1-11 Wings, the worst team in the league, put up 84 points against the Aces despite scoring only two points during the final four minutes. The Aces exerted tremendous energy in coming from way behind to beat the Wings at home two days ago. They still could be tired from that game since it was their first full game minus Wilson. Rested Phoenix has been idle since Wednesday.

The Cardinals upset the Brewers on Saturday. But I like Milwaukee to come back strong today. They are home and hold pitching edges, both starting and bullpen. 

Milwaukee is much hotter than St. Louis.

Even with yesterday's loss, the Brewers still are 13-6 in their last 19 games. The Cardinals are 1-6 in their last seven games.  

The pitching matchup is soft-tossing Miles Mikolas versus Quinn Priester. 

Mikolas is having his typical below-average season with a 4.48 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Priester quietly has become an important contributor to the Brewers' starting rotation with a 2.35 ERA in his last seven games. 

The Cardinals' bullpen has a 4.69 road ERA. St. Louis closer Ryan Helsley has given up an earned run in each of his last four appearances.

The buy sign has finally flashed on for George Kirby. He seems to have turned the corner after coming off the injured list giving up four earned runs combined during his last two starts spanning 12 innings with a 17-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Kirby has a lifetime 3.15 ERA, too, in 44 career starts at T-Mobile Park.

Kirby faces a Cleveland offense that ranks 24th in runs, batting average and OPS. Seattle has an elite closer, Andres Munoz.

Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee was on the cusp of being an ace, but has regressed this season. He's been especially bad on the road with a losing record and 4.99 ERA. Another alarming thing about Bibee is he surrenders 2.5 home runs per nine innings when pitching on the road. Seattle ranks sixth in the majors in homers.

The Guardians' bullpen is showing wear and tear from the heavy work of past seasons ranking only 14th in ERA and among the bottom-10 in WHIP.

Pace tends to slow down and defensive intensity goes up the deeper that NBA playoff series goes on. 

Heavily favored Oklahoma City finds itself in trouble now down 2-1 in these NBA Finals. The Thunder have the best defense in the NBA. However, they have averaged just 107.9 points on the road during the playoffs. They can not count on anyone besides Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to come through on the offensive end. 

So I see the Thunder going back to their roots of stressing defense and walking the ball up the court. They don't want to get in an open-court back-and-forth with the Pacers, especially on the road. Their offense seems out of sync. I envision the Thunder being more patient offensively while being fully aware to get back quickly to defense, or Indiana will get easy fast-break points. 

The Pacers are where they are now because their defense has proven underrated. The Pacers have allowed fewer than 113 points per 100 possessions since the second week of December. That's above average.

It speaks to how bad the Angels' pitching is with Jack Kochanowicz in the starting rotation. Kochanowicz has a 5.61 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. 
Yet Kochanowicz still has better numbers than washed-up 41-year-old Charlie Morton, who is 2-7 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. 

Neither of these stiffs can expect to get bailed out by their bullpens either. The Angels have the third-highest bullpen ERA, while Baltimore's relief pitchers have the fifth-highest ERA.

The Angels' offense has become more respectable with Mike Trout back in the lineup. The Angels have scored 5 or more runs in five of their last seven games. 

Both pitchers have allowed double-digit homers this season and Camden Yards is a premier hitter's park. The forecast is for slight wind, which will be blowing out.

If there was a doubt that Oklahoma City was overrated against Indiana in these NBA Finals following Game 1, it was erased with the Thunders' smashing, 123-107, beatdown of the Pacers in Game 2. 

The scene shifts to Indiana now. But I don't see anything changing. I'm in agreement with the oddsmaker that Oklahoma City is much the superior team. 

I don't believe the overachieving Pacers have the antidote to the Thunder's deadly combination of tremendous depth plus superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City rode that combo to the best record during the regular season and no team in the playoffs has been able to combat it. 

You can't win an NBA championship without at least one superstar. The Pacers' closest player to that distinction is the mercurial Tyrese Haliburton. I'll take Gilgeous-Alexander above Haliburton, especially with Haliburton seen limping following Indiana's Game 2 loss.

White Sox starter Shane Smith is due for regression. He's backed by a bad bullpen that lacks a closer and is facing a Houston offense that is averaging nearly 5 runs a game during its last four games.

Houston starter Lance McCullers Jr. is on the comeback trail from missing the previous two seasons due to serious injuries. McCullers has shown strikeout potential, but he has serious command issues. He's been terrible at home in three starts with a  10.13 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.

The White Sox's offense has become more respectable with the return to health of several of their veteran hitters and the call-up of elite prospect Kyle Teel.

The Fever aren't the only team that looks much improved this season in the WNBA. Atlanta is looking like a top-five team and has a better record than Indiana.

The Dream had won four in a row, the latest being an impressive road victory against the Storm, until losing their last game. That was a stunning upset to the Sun this past Friday.

Atlanta is not in letdown mode for this one. Quite the opposite. The Dream have had four days to stew about that defeat. They should be heavily motivated to take on the Fever, who not only will be missing superstar Caitlin Clark, but also Sophie Cunningham.

Indiana isn't in Atlanta's class without Clark. The Fever are 2-2 minus Clark beating the Mystics and Sky, whose combined record is 6-13, while scoring victories against the Sun and Mystics. Atlanta is the best team the Fever are facing without Clark.

The Fever are hoping to have Clark back for their following game, which is a nationally televised home game against the defending champion Liberty on Saturday. That's the game the Fever are pointing to.

Not only do the Sparks possess a huge talent edge against the Valkyries, but this also is a good situational spot for Los Angeles. 
Golden State could still be on Cloud 9 after stunning the Aces, 95-68, at home this past Saturday. That was the first-year Valkyries' biggest win in their short existence. 

It also puts the Valkyries in a letdown spot against the revenge-minded Sparks. Los Angeles lost to Golden State, 82-73, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on May 23. 

There isn't one player on expansion Golden State that I would rank above LA's top five players - Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, Azura Stevens, Rickea Jackson and Odyssey Sims. Those players have made LA the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA at 93.3 points a game. That's 16.3 points per game more than what the Valkyries average.

The first two games of this Stanley Cup Finals went Over the total. Both of those games were in Edmonton. Now, with the scene shifting to Florida for this Game 3, I see the landscape changing in terms of a slower pace and more defensive intensity.

The way to beat the Oilers is to slow them down. The way to do that is by being physical and savvy, which the Panthers are masters at. 
There have been 6 or fewer goals scored in five of Florida's seven home playoff games. The Panthers have allowed only seven goals in their last four home games.

The Panthers held the Oilers to seven goals in four games at home during last year's Stanley Cup Finals. Edmonton scored five goals in one game at Florida. But the Oilers could only manage two goals in their other three road games against the Panthers during last season's championship series.

Toronto comes into St. Louis averaging 6.2 runs during its last 11 games. The wind is blowing out at 8-to-10 mph and Andre Pallante is the Cardinals starter. That should ensure a boatload of runs for the Blue Jays.

Pallante has a 4.91 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He has surrendered 11 homers, the sixth-most given up in the National League. Pallante was just racked for seven runs in 4 1/3 innings to the weak-hitting Royals during his last start six days ago.

Jose Berrios has been pitching well for the Blue Jays. We all know Berrios' home/road splits, though. He's always pitched worse on the road where his ERA is 4.56, a full run higher than it is at home. The Cardinals rank fourth in batting average and seventh in runs.

Lefty Carlos Rodon is pitching well. But he suddenly hasn't turned into the reincarnation of Sandy Koufax. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are starting Hunter Dobbins, who has a 4.50 road ERA.

Given the offenses of these two teams, I find this total to be too low.

Boston is averaging 7.2 runs in its last five games. The Red Sox rank fifth in OPS and sixth in runs and batting average. The Red Sox also hold the highest batting average against southpaws at .275. They are sixth in slugging percentage versus lefties.

The Yankees remain without a trusted closer with Luke Weaver out.

The Red Sox starting rotation takes a huge dip once you get past Garrett Crochet. Dobbins is their fifth starter. The Yankees should mash him and bad Boston middle relief. The Yankees are No. 1 in homers and OPS. They rank third in batting average and runs. New York is averaging 6.6 runs in its last three games.

The marketplace has been betting this total down. It's low enough now for me to get involved in the Over. 

These teams opened the season against each other on May 18. Washington won, 90-85. That's a combined 175 points.

So what has happened lately? 

The Sun are showing offensive improvement. If you discount a beatdown they suffered against the defending champion and best team in the league, Liberty, they are averaging 85.3 points in their last three games. Connecticut just played its best game of the season, beating the Dream, 84-76, two days ago. 

The Mystics are an up-tempo team. They haven't played good defense, giving up 86, 85 and 85 points during their past three games. They aren't shooting well either. That should change here, though, as Connecticut ranks 10th in scoring defense, last in defensive field goal percentage and second-to-last in 3-point defensive percentage.

Given their star power, the Storm have been underachieving on the offensive end ranking ninth in scoring. Seattle last played on Tuesday. The Storm have used this extra practice time to work on their offense. I'm expecting that to show in this matchup.

The Mercury are averaging 88.3 points a game during their last three games, not including two games against the Lynx, the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA.

Seattle is better than average on defense, but not in the Lynx's class.

I see the Padres and Brewers each producing at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Stephen Kolek versus Jose Quintana.

Neither of these pitchers gets many strikeouts. Quintana has just 27 in 39 innings while Kolek has whiffed 27 batters in 36 1/3 innings.

The 36-year-old Quintana is past his prime. He's due for regression with an unstainable 2.77 ERA. The Padres have the ninth-highest road batting average in the majors.

Kolek is a converted reliever. He's given up 14 earned runs in 22 innings during his last four starts. He had a 5.21 ERA a year ago. The Brewers rank ninth in the majors in runs scored.

Neither defense was very good last season. That's putting it kindly. But Hamilton brought in respected defensive coordinator Brent Monson and upgraded with quality players during the offseason. I have more confidence in the Tiger-Cats' defense than I do Calgary's.

The Stampeders gave up at least 31 points in all but four of their 12 games last season. Their defense doesn't look improved, but even worse with nearly all new starters. It's a good time to be playing against this defense. Hamilton has the offensive weapons to take advantage.

The Tiger-Cats are led by veteran quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell and a bevy of good receivers. Mitchell threw for a CFL-high 5,451 yards last year. He also had a league-best 32 TD passes. Hamilton has a very good running back, Greg Bell, and brought in deep threat Kenny Lawler.

I like the way Hamilton finished last season winning five of its last seven games. Calgary, on the other hand, has good skill position players, but has major questions on defense and offensive line.

Now that Paige Bueckers has been ruled out again due to a concussion, I feel confident backing the Sparks against the Wings here.

Los Angeles holds a talent edge, especially with Dallas missing Bueckers, who I already consider the Wings' best all-around player.

While Bueckers remains out, the Sparks are getting back Rickea Jackson. She's one of the team's better players. The Sparks are in circle-the-wagons mode at 2-6 and with a three-game losing streak. The Sparks have been idle since Sunday giving them ample time to prepare and game plan.

The Sparks rank 10th defensively allowing 84.1 points per game. Yet their defense still is better than the Wings, who rate 11th allowing 88.5 points a game. Dallas was terrible defensively last year and the team still hasn't fixed its defensive woes.

LA is the more talented and healthy team. The spot sets up for the Sparks, too. So it's not too much to ask them just to win the game by laying extra juice with a money line play.

Montreal has been waiting and pointing to this revenge matchup the entire off-season. Toronto eliminated the Alouettes, 30-28, in the Eastern Finals on its way to winning the Grey Cup. Montreal, though, outgained the Argonauts by nearly 100 yards in that game. They were done in by five turnovers yet still only lost by two points.

Now the Alouettes draw Toronto without QB Chad Kelly, who still remains out with a leg injury, and a vulnerable defense full of question marks and holes in the defensive line and secondary. Montreal holds a huge defensive edge. Toronto QB Nick Arbuckle has a 27-to-32 touchdown-to-interception career mark.

I like Montreal QB Davis Alexander more than Arbuckle. Alexander replaces Cody Fajardo. The Alouettes have such confidence in Alexander they awarded him a three-year contract extension in the off-season. Alexander has a bevy of good receiving targets.

When we last came upon Eduardo Rodriguez he was enduring a four-game stretch of allowing 21 earned runs in 16 innings. That was back in late April and early-to-mid May. He's been on the injured list with a sore shoulder.

Since then, Rodriguez made one rehab start in the Arizona Complex League and was tagged for three runs in 4 2/3 innings. Those three runs came on three homers. Now Rodriguez is scheduled to go here against the Reds and Nick Lodolo.

Lodolo has a 3.10 ERA. He's giving up an average of 0.9 homers and 1.8 walks per nine innings. Lodolo held the Cubs, the No. 1 scoring team in the majors, scoreless in his most recent start going six innings. The Reds have a rested bullpen having been idle yesterday.

So not only do the home Reds have a starting pitching edge, but also a bullpen advantage. Rodriguez could be on a pitch count. Arizona relievers have the fourth-highest bullpen ERA at 5.25.

It's not like the Diamondbacks are so superior to the Reds either. They just have one more victory on the season than Cincinnati.

Unlike what this inflated point spread may indicate, this Game 1 moment isn't too big for the Pacers. It wouldn't even shock me if the Pacers stole this road game. 

The Pacers have four strong things going for them: They are the most accurate 3-point shooting percentage team in the postseason hitting at a 40.1 percent clip. They take care of the ball ranking third in turnover rate, which is where they finished during the regular season, and they are extremely well coached by Rick Carlisle. That results in the fourth factor, a tremendous point spread mark.

Indiana has covered 11 of its 16 playoff games for 69 percent! This includes a 6-1 ATS record during their past seven road games. When it comes to Game 1's, the Pacers are 3-0 with victories against the Bucks and straight-up road wins against the Cavaliers and Knicks as underdogs. 

The situation also is good for the underdog. Indiana last played on Friday. So the Pacers have had a good rest and the dangerous Carlisle has had ample time to draw up a solid game plan. The Pacers were 7-1 SU and ATS when they played this season with at least three days of rest. 

On the other hand, Oklahoma City has been idle for eight days. That's too long. It adds an extra element of randomness into the equation. Randomness is good for a large underdog. 

By the way, the Thunder had nine days off before they played the Nuggets after opening their postseason with a sweep of the Grizzlies. The Thunder were 10 1/2-point home favorites and lost that Game 1 to the Nuggets straight-up.

I think the price is fair to back a hot Framber Valdez with a rested Josh Hader in the bullpen against what is another horrendous Pirates team.

Valdez is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in his last three starts. He is 6-2 with a 2.73 ERA in his last 10 starts. Houston is 5-0 in Valdez's last five starts. The Astros also have a rested Hader to close out the game if necessary. Hader is having another top-five closer season.

The Pirates are 22-38, 11 games worse than the Astros in the loss column.

Pittsburgh has some promising young pitchers. Veteran Mitch Keller once was one of them - a long time ago. Keller has become just a mediocre pitcher at best. Pittsburgh is 1-8 in Keller's last nine starts. Keller's career numbers at PNC Park are 15-28 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

The Pirates' offense is way down again this season ranking second-from-the-bottom in runs and homers. Pittsburgh is averaging only 2.8 runs in its last five games.

New York is the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.5 points per game. The Liberty also are first in field goal and 3-point shooting percentage.

Washington doesn't have the defense to stop New York. Washington has allowed 85 points in each of its last two games.

The Mystics like to play up-tempo, which is the style of their first-year coach, Sydney Johnson. The Liberty will be fresh to play at a fast pace having been idle for the last three days after scoring 100 points against Connecticut in their last game.

Washington has scoring talent. The Mystics are overdue for a big offensive showing.

Griffin Canning's record shows 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA. That's been a surprise to many people. Regression, though, has started to hit Canning. He has a 6.55 ERA in his last three starts.

I don't see Canning getting well against the Dodgers, who rank first in batting average, homers and OPS. They are No. 2 in runs and just got Mookie Betts back into the lineup.

Tony Gonsolin is slated to pitch on four day's rest for the Dodgers. That's not a positive either. He has a 5.23 ERA. The Mets rank 10th in homers and Gonsolin has surrendered six during his past 15 innings.

Both bullpens are taxed, too, with each of the first two games of this series going into extra innings.

The oddsmaker has anointed Edmonton as the Game 1 favorite. I'm in agreement. The Oilers are home, hot with 12 wins in their last 14 games, getting contributions up and down their lineup and have shown a strong defensive commitment sparked by hot goalie Stuart Skinner.

Defending champion Florida can never be underestimated. The Panthers held off the Oilers by winning Game 7 after nearly blowing a 3-0 series lead in last year's Stanley Cup finals. The Oilers have the bigger stars and are out for redemption. This is their shot and they don't want to blow Game 1 at home like last season.

Superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been as outstanding as ever, ranking first and second, respectively, in points during the postseason. Unlike past years, though, the Oilers have shown more scoring depth with eight players having scored five goals or more in the playoffs and 20 different plays registering at least a point. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ranks fourth in points during the playoffs while Evan Bouchard is fifth.

Sergei Bobrovsky has proven himself to be a big-game goalie for Florida. Bobrovsky is 36, however. It has been the 26-year-old Skinner, who has been red-hot during his past seven games with a 6-1 record, 1.41 goals against average and .944 save percentage with three shutouts.

Now that Matt Wallner is back, the Twins are fully healthy. Minnesota showed its offensive skills in Monday's opener of this series scoring 10 runs on 14 hits. 

Look for the Twins to continue to display hot bats facing Jacob Lopez, who has a 6.32 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in three starts this season spanning 15 2/3 innings. Opponents are batting .298 against Lopez. He's not likely to pitch too far into the game, which brings Oakland's bad bullpen into play. A's relievers have a combined 6.16 ERA, highest in the majors. 

Pablo Lopez will be on the mound for the Twins. Lopez surrendered four earned runs, including two homers, in five innings on the road against the Rays in his last start six days ago. Lopez was pitching in a minor league park against the Rays and he'll be pitching in another minor league park today, Sacramento's Sutter Health Field. 

Sutter Health Field is proving to be very much a hitter's park. The A's have gone Over in nine of their last 12 games there. The weather forecast is for the wind to be blowing out at 9-10 miles per hour, another plus for the Over.

Since losing superstar Caitlin Clark to a quad strain, Indiana has gone 0-2. The Fever lost to Washington, 83-77, as a four-point road favorite last Wednesday and then was humbled by Connecticut - the worst team in the WNBA - with an 85-83 loss as a double-digit home favorite last Friday.

The Fever had veteran guards Sophie Cunningham and Sydney Colson when they lost to the Mystics last week. Now those two aren't expected to play because of injuries joining Clark on the sidelines. It leaves the Fever so thin at guard that they had to apply to the league to get an emergency hardship in order to sign guard Aari McDonald.

So not are the Fever going to be missing Clark and her across the board production and leadership - 19 points a game, 9.3 assists, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 31.4 percent shooting from 3-point range - but they are down to their fourth-string point guard.

Washington is not a patsy. The Mystics tied for the best point spread record in the league last year at 25-14-1 (64 percent) and has a winning point spread record this season. They have the best guard on the court by far with Clark out in Brittney Sykes and a pair of rookie-of-the-year candidates, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

The Mystics are physical and they like to run. The Fever are going to have problems staying with them minus Clark.

Bad timing for Paul Blackburn. The 31-year-old, eight-year veteran has been sidelined all season with a knee injury. But he's set to make his season debut on the road against the Dodgers Monday.

Good luck.

Not only do the Dodgers have the best offense in baseball ranking first in many key categories, including runs, batting average, homers and OPS, but they are in a bad mood after getting blasted by the Yankees last night on national TV during the Sunday night ESPN game.

Blackburn is far from a stud. He had a combined 4.66 ERA last season pitching for the A's and Mets. His ERA was 5.18 with New York. He has a career mark of 22-28 with a 4.85 ERA.

Dodgers starter Dustin May hasn't exactly been elite either this season. He holds a losing record and 4.20 ERA. May has surrendered at least one home run in each of his past five starts. He's been tagged for 24 earned runs in his last seven starts spanning 38 2/3 innings.

The Mets are averaging 5.4 runs in their last five games. Their offense is above average. The Dodgers' bullpen is below average with a 4.02 ERA.

The Aces' offense is coming around with newcomer Jewell Loyd joining stars A'Ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray. The Aces just produced 96 points against the Sparks two days ago. Wilson is the third-leading scorer in the WNBA.

Seattle is giving up an average of 86 points per game in its last three games.

However, the Aces' defense still remains a work in progress. Las Vegas ranks 9th defensively surrendering an average of 81.8 points a game. The Aces rank second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. The Storm have the star power to take advantage.

Seattle proved that last Sunday when it buried Las Vegas, 102-82. While the Storm are not going to hit 60 percent of their shots from the floor like they did against the Aces last week, I do believe there will be enough scoring from both teams to easily sail above the number, which the marketplace has bet down into even more of a reasonable number.

Yes, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field. But only slightly. Certainly not enough to cause such a low total in a pitching matchup of Nick Martinez versus Jameson Taillon.

Martinez is pitching better than I expected with a 3.48 ERA, but he doesn't miss many bats with only 45 strikeouts in 64 2/3 innings. He's facing a Cubs offense that ranks in the top-four in many major offensive categories, including runs (second), batting average (second, OPS (third) and homers (fourth).

I'm even less sold on Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who has a 3.86 ERA, bad metrics, is homer-prone and also doesn't get many strikeouts with 51 in 63 innings.

The Reds rank 10th in runs. If you discount a 2-0 loss to the Cubs on Saturday, the Reds are averaging six runs per game during their last seven games.

Neither bullpen is elite.

If Robbie Ray isn't issuing a ton of walks and homers, he's one of the top pitchers in baseball. Ray has been dominant giving up one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Going back to his past seven starts, Ray has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of those outings with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 44-to-9 and no home runs. 

I don't see the Marlins, with their below average offense and ranking 25th in homers, doing little if any damage against Ray. 

It takes two, though, to make an Under work. Marlins starter Edwin Cabrera has built up his arm strength and is having an outstanding May. He's permitted just six earned runs in four starts this month spanning 21 1/3 innings for an ERA of 2.53. He has a 23-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. 

San Francisco has scored 14 runs in its last seven games, an average of just two runs per game. Each of these last seven games has gone Under the total. This one should, too.

The Royals are last in the majors in homers. Their active outfield roster has smacked the grand total of four homers this season. Yankees' outfielder Trent Grisham, by comparison, has hit eight more homers this season than Kansas City's entire outfield combined. 

So I'm not expecting the Royals to do much damage against Casey Mize, who now that he is healthy is living up to his once lofty rating as an elite pitching prospect. Mize is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA. He has given up one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Seth Lugo is coming off the injured list to start for Kansas City. Lugo has gotten better with age. He's allowed three earned runs or fewer during his six home starts this season.

Both bullpens are underrated with ERA's in the top-eight.

The Fever are a frustrated bunch. Caitlin Clark is out with an injury and the Fever just suffered an upset road loss to the Mystics this past Wednesday. 
I look for the Fever at home to take their frustrations out on the perfect patsy, Connecticut. 

This isn't the successful Sun team of the two previous seasons that reached the conference semifinals each of those years under Stephanie White. The Sun are in total rebuild with a first-year coach and all new starters. They are the worst team in the WNBA at 0-5, 1-4 ATS. 

White is now Indiana's head coach. Worse for the Sun is they are banged-up especially in the backcourt where their second-leading scorer and assists leader, Marina Mabrey, is questionable and Lindsay Allen is out. Frontcourt player, Olivia Nelson-Ododa, is questionable, too. She's Connecticut's third-leading scorer and second-best rebounder. 

The Fever desperately want to prove they are far more than just Caitlin Clark. This is their golden opportunity to show that.

The Liberty are the defending WNBA champions. They are 5-0 this season. But I don't find the Liberty that great right now, especially without star center Jonquel Jones. She missed Thursday's home game against the expansion Valkyries because of a hamstring injury. New York only beat the Valkyries by five points. Golden State was down by just one point with less than 25 seconds left in the game.

Now the Liberty have to play without rest for the first time this season. It's also their third game in four days. If Jones remains out, it's even a worse spot for New York, which doesn't have the excellent depth it had last season.

All Washington does is cover point spreads. The Mystics tied Minnesota for the top point spread mark last season at 25-14-1. The Mystics are 4-2 ATS this year.

Washington is underrated ranking third in rebounding and fifth defensively. The Mystics last played on Wednesday when they upset the Fever at home. The Mystics have a pair of outstanding rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, and are getting a career season from point guard Brittney Sykes, who is the No. 3 scorer in the WNBA averaging 22 points.

The numbers show this: The Oilers have scored 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 13 games. If you go deeper into the regular season the numbers are Edmonton producing 3 or more goals in 17 of its last 20 games. The Oilers have had the best power play in the NHL for the past five years and it showed in Tuesday's 4-1 Game 4 victory with two goals. Connor McDavid is the best offensive player in the world and Leon Draisaitl is living up to his superstar billing with 23 points in 15 postseason games this year.

So, in other words, the Oilers are going to hold up their end of the scoring column. Since this is a close-out spot with the Oilers leading the series, 3-1, the dam could burst in the final period if the Stars are trailing late and have to pull their goalie and take other drastic measures.

The key is if the Stars are finally going to show something after being held to two goals in their last three games. They certainly have the talented offensive players to do that. Dallas was the third-highest scoring team in the league during the regular season and had the top power play during the playoffs.

The Stars shouldn't be holding anything back now and the Oilers are less physical after losing rugged Zach Hyman for the rest of the postseason.

The Knicks stole a couple of games from the Celtics then caught a break when Jayson Tatum got hurt. The Knicks weren't better than the Celtics and they aren't better than Indiana. Sure New York has been somewhat magical. But I don't see them coming back from 3-1 down in this Eastern Conference series. A team hasn't done that in the East since 1981.

Since I regard the Pacers as the superior team, I'm backing them as an underdog in this Game 5.

The game is at Madison Square Garden. But getting this many points with the Pacers is well worth them being the away team and fading the zig/zag theory. Indiana has won and covered each of its last six road playoff games.

The deeper the series goes the more Indiana has the advantage. I say this because the Pacers have the better depth and coach. Not helping matters for the Knicks is that Karl-Anthony Towns also could be limited due to a knee injury.

Even though Jalen Brunson has emerged a superstar during the postseason, the Pacers' starters have been superior to New York's. The Pacers are quicker and more explosive. They've forced the Knicks to commit an uncharacteristic 15 turnovers per game in the series. Tyrese Haliburton has negated Brunson's dominance by his speed and all-around skill set.

Chicago has yet to win this season going 0-4. However, I see that changing here with the Sky earning their first victory. They draw a 1-4 Dallas team that is playing its fourth straight road game. 

The Sky are the worst defensive team in the WNBA. Dallas, though, isn't much better. The Wings rank 11th out of 13 teams defensively. 
Chicago's first two games were brutal - at the Fever and against New York, the defending champions and best team in the WNBA. The Sky have begun showing improvement under new coach Tyler Marsh. Chicago led Phoenix by 16 points on the road before losing, 94-89, this past Tuesday. Dallas also has a first-year head coach, Chris Koclanes.

The Wings' lone victory is against rebuilding Connecticut, who I rate as the worst team in the league. The Wings have two stars in rookie Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale. The Sky, though, are not without talent. They have two of the best young frontcourt players in Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso and a veteran backcourt of Courtney Vandersloot and Ariel Atkins. 

The Sky are not outclassed here. They are home and catching the Wings at the end of a long road trip. The spot is ripe for Chicago to win.

Yes, Oklahoma City is the superior team and playing at home. But the tax to back the Thunder is way too high, especially given Minnesota is facing elimination. The Timberwolves have covered the past two games losing by only two points and winning by 42 points.

Since Feb. 13, the Timberwolves only have been an underdog of eight or more points three times. All were against the Thunder. Minnesota covered all three of those games, winning two straight-up.

The Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS, 4-3 SU when facing an elimination game under Chris Finch. 

Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, Minnesota's two best players, made 21 of 32 shots for a combined 54 points in Game 3. The pair, however, were only 6-of-20 from the floor for 21 points in Game 4. They probably won't be as hot as they were in Game 3, but certainly should be better than their Game 4 performance. Even with those two shooting so poorly, the Timberwolves only lost by two points. That bodes well for the Timberwolves staying within the number here.

Even though Indiana is missing Caitlin Clark, the Mystics are going to have a big crowd for this home game and they won't lack motivation. This is Washington's first home game since May 16 when it opened with an upset of Atlanta.

The Mystics have been on the road for their four games. They went 1-3 in those games, but with the three defeats coming by a combined 11 points. The Mystics led late in the game, too, during all three of those losses.

Except for center Shakira Austin, who is questionable, the Mystics are finally healthy. They have the best guard on the court with Clark out in Brittney Sykes, who is having a breakout season under new coach Sydney Johnson. Sykes ranks No. 3 in scoring at 22.3 points and is ninth in assists.

Besides Clark's obvious scoring talents, the Fever are going to miss her leadership. Indiana is much deeper and better coached than last season. But the Fever players, particularly All-Star center Aliyah Boston, aren't going to be as effective without Clark getting them the ball at their right spots.

The Fever still have good players, but the Mystics are being underrated here. Washington ranks first in the WNBA in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

Washington tied with Minnesota for the top point spread record in the WNBA last season at 25-14-1 (64 percent) and they have a winning ATS mark this season.