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I had the Spurs winning Game 3 this past Monday night. Too much pressure and distractions for the Knicks playing their first home game in an NBA finals in 27 years. Donald Trump certainly didn't help matters by attending the game causing more commotion.

But now things have settled down for the Knicks. New York didn't win 13 straight postseason games because it was lucky.

The Spurs were in must win mode Monday down 0-2 in the series and they came through albeit helped by the officials, who had the Knicks in the penalty just barely into the fourth quarter. The Spurs got to shoot 18 more free throws than the Knicks during the second half. San Antonio finished with 34 free throws to New York's 22.

“I never thought I would be in the NBA Finals and see a team get 24 free-throw attempts in the second half to another team’s eight,” Knicks coach Mike Brown was quoted as saying.

That large of a disparity doesn't make sense since both teams are very physical defensively as they should be for an NBA Finals. Certainly the referees will be made more aware of that and Victor Wembanyama's tendency to commit cheap shots.

Now the Knicks are more comfortable at home and should get the benefit of the doubt from the officials following Game 3's loss.

The Knicks were able to win two close games at San Antonio to open the series. I trust New York's veterans more than San Antonio's youth on the road. The last time the Spurs won before Monday was upsetting the Thunder on the road in Game 7 of their Western Conference Finals. San Antonio proceeded to lose two in a row after that impressive victory.

So I see the pendulum swinging back to the Knicks here.

It probably was to be expected given the many days off the Knicks and Spurs had before playing in Game 1. The shooting was terrible in the Knicks', 105-95, opening game win this past Wednesday.

The Knicks had been idle for eight days prior to the game. Their rusty shooting showed. New York shot 41 percent from the floor and 31 percent from 3-point range. These numbers were way down from what the Knicks averaged, which was 47.8 percent from the field and a league fourth-best 37.3 percent from 3-point range.

San Antonio was idle for three days before Game 1. Victor Wembanyama's shooting was off. The result of that being the Spurs hit only 36% from the field and 23 percent from 3-point range. These numbers also were way down from what the Spurs average, which is 48.3 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from beyond the arc. The Knicks were 20th in 3-point defense.

Expect much better shooting now that the two teams have played a game to get back into rhythm. That should result in an Over. 

The Knicks certainly picked the right time to peak. They are on an 11-game win streak with an average win margin of 23.8 points. New York has covered in 10 of those games. If it weren't for a pair of one point losses to the Hawks, the Knicks would be a perfect 15-0 in the postseason.

I'm not going to step in against the Knicks, especially when they are getting this many points.

Kudos to the Spurs in upsetting the defending champion Thunder. But even though San Antonio is home here, this is a good spot for the Knicks. New York last played on May 25.

The Spurs had to go the full seven games in their Western Conference finals against the Thunder upsetting Oklahoma City, 111-103, in Game 7 on the road this past Saturday night. NBA Playoff teams off a Game 7 win vs. a team off a four-game sweep are 3-14 SU and ATS in Game 1.

That doesn't bode well for the Spurs. Neither does the Spurs' inexperience going this far in the playoffs. The Knicks have the veteran coach Mike Brown and the more experienced roster. 

After building an early 15-point lead in Game 3 this past Friday at home, the Spurs may have subconsciously gotten overconfident. You can't do that against the defending NBA champion Thunder. San Antonio paid the price, losing 123-108, as a 2 1/2-point favorite.

I believe the Spurs learned a valuable lesson in that Game 3 loss. I look for them to bounce back with a victory at home in this Game 4. So does the oddsmaker, who has installed San Antonio as the favorite. If the Spurs were to lose, they would be down 3-1 with Game 5 set for Oklahoma City on Tuesday.

I like what San Antonio superstar center Victor Wembanyama said after his team's game 3 loss. “It’s my first playoffs,” Wembanyama was quoted as saying. “It’s the first playoffs for many of us. Of course, there was going to be hard trials. It’s to be expected, but now we’re going to see what we’re made of.”

The Spurs are 36-11 at home this season. They have shown what they are made of following a loss winning and covering 11 of the past 12 times in those circumstances.

No team has had more success against Oklahoma City this season than San Antonio. The Spurs are 5-3 vs. the Thunder in eight meetings this season.

It was a terrible beat for those who had the Under in the opening game of this NBA Western Conference championship series. There were just 202 points scored in regulation. But the Over cashed because the Spurs and Thunder went into double overtime.

The total is slightly down from Monday's Game 1. But the Under still is the right play.

Yes, there are superstars in action. There also are two outstanding defenses. Oklahoma City has the top defense in the NBA. The Spurs are in the top eight and have the best defensive player in shot blocking star Victor Wembanyama.  

It's important to note that the pace of Game 1 during the final three quarters would have ranked as the slowest tempo of any team during the regular season.

I'm expecting that same kind of slow pace following Monday's double overtime game when all the key players logged monster minutes. 

The Cavaliers have been great in their two Game 7's during the playoffs. But they haven't been so good in their opening playoff game. They lost by 10 points on the road to the Pistons in Game 1 in their recently concluded series.

The timing is not good for Cleveland to stay close in this Game 1 opening playoff series road matchup against the Knicks.

While the Cavaliers are off an emotional road upset of the Pistons two days ago, the Knicks have been rested and prepared for the past nine days after sweeping the 76ers in their second round playoff series.

This setup is similar to when the Knicks hosted the 76ers in Game 1. Philadelphia had just upset the Celtics on the road in Game 7. They weren't ready to play and got blown out by the Knicks by 39 points.

The Knicks are riding a seven-game winning streak where they outscored their opponents by an NBA-record 185 points.

I find the Knicks to be the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have the top net rating of all the playoff teams during the postseason so far.

It is not a fluke. Credit to the Cavaliers for taking out the Pistons in come from behind style. But the Knicks have the better up and down roster, the superior defense and are in a hugely advantageous situation. 

The Pistons know this spot - a Game 7 at home. They were in this same situation just two weeks ago hosting Orlando. Detroit came through with a 116-94 victory.

Now the Pistons host the Cavaliers. Same scenario. Yes, Cleveland is better than Orlando. But the Cavaliers are not trustworthy on the road. They are 1-5 SU and ATS in their playoff away games.

Detroit is the superior defensive team. The combination of the Pistons' defense, being at home and Cleveland's lack of playoff success on the road puts me on the Pistons.

It was bad beat time for anyone that had the Under in Game 5 in this series as there were 24 points scored in overtime that pushed the game Over. There were a combined 206 points scored in regulation, which was safely Under the total.

Now with the defensive-minded Pistons down 3-2 in the series, I'm expecting an intense defensive struggle. This is bolstered by the tempo slowing down. There were fewer than 89 possessions in Game 5.

The Pistons gave up the third fewest points during the regular season. They also ranked third in defensive field goal percentage and were No. 1 in 3-point defense.

The series now shifts to Cleveland where the Cavaliers have played better. The Cavaliers know they will be road underdogs in a Game 7 in Detroit if they don't close out the series here. So their defensive intensity should be at peak efficiency.

Detroit is heavily reliant offensively on Cade Cunningham. He is shooting 42.8 percent from the floor during the last three games. Cunningham shot 46.1 percent from the field in the regular season. 

Home court and defense matter very much in this series. Detroit has both going in this Game 5.

The Pistons have won their last five home playoff games - two against the Cavaliers and three versus the Magic. Detroit allowed an average of only 96.8 points a game during these games.

Cleveland is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five road playoff games, losing twice to the Pistons and three times to the Raptors.

The Pistons win when they get defensive stops. That should be the case here. The Pistons ranked third defensively and also were third in defensive field goal percentage while being the top rated defensive 3-point team.

The Cavaliers are not as strong defensively ranking 11th defensively and 26th in 3-point defense. They are soft away from home. Don't expect the Cavaliers to get 20 fewer fouls called on them than the Pistons like they did during the past two games in Cleveland.

The Cavaliers are in must-win mode down 0-2 against the Pistons in this playoff series. I expect the Cavaliers to get the job done with the series shifting to Cleveland. 

Cleveland is 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. This includes going 4-0 at home against the Raptors in the first round. 

The Pistons went 1-2 SU and ATS at Orlando during their first round playoff series against the Magic. 

Cleveland was 7-of-32 from 3-point range in Game 2 and James Harden missed 10 of 13 shots from the floor. I don't see Cleveland and Hardin being nearly this cold in Game 3. 

The first game of this 76ers-Knicks playoff series went Over by 23 points. The oddsmaker has adjusted the total upward but not enough.

The Knicks are averaging a whooping 134.3 points in their last three games. The 76ers have a below average defense. They have no answer for Jalen Brunson.

But if there was a plus for the 76ers during their 137-98 opening game loss to the Knicks, is that some of their key players could get added rest during the blowout.

Tyrese Maxey especially had a rough game against the Knicks. The 76ers were obviously tired and in a letdown mode after upsetting the Celtics in seven games and then having to play on Monday following last Saturday's Game 7 victory against Boston.

The 76ers have proven resilient. Maxey was the fifth highest scorer in the NBA averaging 28.3 points a game. Expect him and the 76ers to have a much better shooting game than they did in Game 1.

The Knicks are going to get their points. They are in too good of an offensive groove not to.

So Over makes sense to me.

The 76ers very well could cause problems to the Knicks in this playoff series. But I don't see it happening in this Game 1. The timing and situation just don't work for the 76ers here.

Philadelphia just won a grueling seven-game series against the Celtics. The 76ers accomplished this by beating Boston, 109-100, as mid-sized underdogs this past Saturday. It is one of their biggest franchise victories in the last 25 years.

But this is not enough recovery time - both physically and mentally - for the 76ers to perform well here against a rested New York team that just outscored the Hawks by an average of 32 points per game in winning the last three games of its playoff series.

The Knicks' offense is humming. The 76ers ranked 19th defensively. Fragile Joel Embiid is likely to play, but he is not 100%.

This one sets up for the Knicks and they get the job done. 

Orlando is a well below average shooting team and that was with its second leading scorer, Franz Wagner, and his 20 points a game.

The cold shooting Magic managed only 19 second half points in their 93-79 home loss to the Pistons in Game 6 this past Friday.

I doubt Wagner plays and I have no faith in Orlando's offense. Detroit has the third-best defense in the NBA and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense. 

But I don't trust the Pistons' offense either. If you discount Detroit's, 116-109, Game 5 victory the Pistons are averaging 97 points in the series. They have had problems against Orlando's physical defense.

This is the lowest total of the series, but it is still not low enough. 

Orlando is surprisingly up 3-2 in this series. Detroit stayed alive in the last game winning, 116-109, at home. The total went Over. Three of the first four games in the series went Under. The last one went Over because the teams shot surprisingly well. The Pistons shot 49% from the floor while Orlando made 48% of its field goals. There also were 65 free throws taken.

I don't see Friday's Game 6 playing out that way. The combined total scored for the first five games of the series was 203 points. I'm expecting a very strong defensive emphasis in Game 6 with the Pistons needing to win to stay alive while the Magic doing all they can to prevent going to Detroit for a Game 7 where they would be heavy underdogs.

The Pistons ranked third during the regular season in fewest points allowed. They also were first in 3-point defense and third in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic have an above average defense. The total is too high based on the 225 points scored in the last game.

Injuries have robbed the Timberwolves of Anthony Edwards, the NBA's third leading scorer at 28.8 points a game, and scrappy point guard Donte DiVincenzo. Edwards has a hyperextended knee and DiVincenzo suffered a ruptured Achilles.

Minnesota's home court advantage doesn't come close to compensating for those crucial injuries.  

Knucklehead Jaden McDaniels didn't do the Timberwolves any favors either when he scored a meaningless layup in the final seconds of Game 4's blowout Minnesota victory.

That drew the ire of the prideful Nuggets and woke up Nikola Jokic, who responded with 27 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds in Denver's, 125-113, Game 5 victory. That game wasn't even as close as the final score. Denver led by 27 points at one point.

Facing elimination down 3-2 in the series, the Nuggets now have their confidence and intensity. This really is the series as I don't expect Denver to lose at home if there is a Game 7. I expect the Nuggets to be up for the challenge and to cover this number.

Playoff basketball means an increase in defensive intensity. That has been magnified even more in this series with the Lakers being without Luka Doncic and the Rockets hardly having Kevin Durant, who won't play in Wednesday's game because of a left ankle sprain.

The result has been the Lakers are averaging only 101.2 points a game in regulation during the series, while the Rockets are averaging just 102 points in the series during regulation.

Houston is trying to climb out of a gigantic hole. The Rockets know they can only do this by playing their usual tight defense. Only three teams allowed fewer points than the Rockets during the regular season. Houston also was the second best defensive rebounding team.

The Lakers are a much stronger defensive team minus Doncic. They're playing their best defense of the season. If you go back the last seven games, the Lakers are giving up an average of only 98.7 points a game. 

Phoenix has not been competitive in losing the first two games of this playoff series to Oklahoma City. But now the scene shifts to Phoenix for this Game 3.

The Suns are going to give a monster effort here after being embarrassed in the first two games. The Thunder are without Jalen Williams and his 20 points per game. He suffered a hamstring injury in the last game and is out.

Oklahoma City may be the best team in the NBA, but they are not good at covering point spreads going 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games.

Phoenix has the defense, motivation and home court advantage to stay within single digits. The Suns gave up the sixth fewest points during the regular season and ranked second in 3-point defense.

Alarmed seeing Victor Wembanyama hit his head on the floor following a big fall, the Spurs were upset by the Trail Blazers in Game 2 of their playoff series.

Wembanyama is in concussion protocol. I doubt he plays today although he did make the trip to Portland. It would be a huge bonus if he did see action. I am not counting on that yet I still like the Spurs to win.

San Antonio Spurs went 12-6 in games Wembanyama did not play this season. Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell are all underrated players. The Spurs could not win a championship without Wembanyama. But they can beat Portland without him and are highly motivated to prove that.

I don't feel the Trail Blazers are at the stage where they have enough savvy and big game playoff experience to beat San Antonio following their big road win this past Tuesday. The Spurs have a huge need to show the country they can indeed beat a lower-tier playoff team without Wembanyama. 

The Pistons are not your normal top seed. Orlando is better than a normal eight seed when it comes to the Eastern Conference. So the opening game playoff result wasn't totally shocking with the Magic upsetting  Detroit, 112-101, this past Sunday.

That was the Magic's 5th straight Under. But I see that Orlando Under streak ending here. That first game had a slow pace, feeling out type process.

Aside from Cade Cunningham, the Pistons couldn't generate any scoring. The Magic showed they could have some offensive success in the half-court.

The teams have had three days to adjust. I look for the Pistons to have a better offensive rhythm and for Cunningham to get much better shooting support.

Orlando has three reliable scorers - Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane. They are all good for 20 points apiece.

I'm also expecting a faster tempo and less rust in this Game 2. 

I'm looking for a more poised and smarter Timberwolves team than the one that showed up in this past Saturday's Game 1 playoff game. Minnesota built an early 12-point lead against Denver in that game. But the Timberwolves became frustrated with the Nuggets' huge free throw shooting advantage and ended up losing, 116-105.

The Nuggets were 30 of 33 for 91% from the free-throw line. That was 14 more free throws than the Timberwolves had. Minnesota defended Jamal Murray well. But the referees gifted Murray 16 free throws - and he made all of them.

The Timberwolves know what they are up against here. I expect them to have more composure. They have the talent and playoff experience to hang within this point spread. 

No NBA team had a worse point spread record than the Cavaliers this season. Cleveland finished the regular season 32-48-1 ATS for 40 percent. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in 10 of their last 15 games.

Once again Cleveland is priced wrong.

The Raptors have a top 10 defense. Their defensive numbers are better than Cleveland's. Toronto doesn't have a superstar, but Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes are very good players.

The Raptors swept their regular-season series with the Cavaliers, 3-0. All of the victories were by double digits.

The Cavaliers went 21-9 after acquiring James Harden. Yet only four of those wins came against teams that finished in the top six in their respective conferences. 

Kudos to the Warriors for upsetting the Clippers to keep alive. But I don't see the Warriors pulling off a second straight road upset. Golden State is 12-25 ATS following a victory. That was the worst spread mark in the NBA in that role this season.

Not only does Phoenix have an extra day rest and no travel, but the Suns are much superior defensively to both the Clippers and Warriors.

Golden State is 8-18 in its last 26 games even after beating the Clippers with six of those victories coming against Memphis, Dallas, Washington (twice), Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Warriors have lost 14 of their last 16 when playing against teams that made the postseason. 

The NBA postseason begins today. That means more intensity and better defense. This will be evident in this Trailblazers-Suns Play-In game.

The Suns are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Not only did they surrender the sixth fewest points per game, but ranked second in 3-point defense, third in steals and third in forced turnovers per possession.

Portland is not a good shooting team - and that is putting it kindly. The Trailblazers rank in the bottom three in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Trailblazers committed the most turnovers in the NBA. They also haven't made the postseason since 2021. So nerves could play a negative factor.

The Trailblazers are underrated defensively, however. They ranked 16th in scoring defense, allowing 115.8 points per game. That is the season number. But Portland is much better defensively than that mediocre rating shows. The Trailblazers forced the seventh most turnovers per possession and if you discount a 137-132 overtime loss to the Nuggets - the highest scoring team in the NBA - the Trailblazers yielded an average of only 101.6 points per game during their last nine games.

Phoenix is much worse offensively than it is on defense. The Suns were 25th in scoring and 28th in field goal shooting percentage.

No Luka Doncic. No Austin Reeves. No problem either for the Lakers, or for this total going Over.

That's because LA's opponent is Utah. The Jazz are the worst defensive team in the NBA giving up an average of 126 points a game. Discount their last game against the Grizzlies and the Jazz have allowed an average of 137.6 points in their last nine games.

Utah, though, has scored 147 and 137 points in its last two games. The Jazz rank eighth in scoring and play at the third fastest pace. This combination has resulted in the Jazz tying for second for the most Overs in the league at 49-32 (60%), including going above the total in seven of their last 10 games.

The Lakers are dropping way down in defensive class after playing the Suns, Warriors and Thunder.

LA has incentive to pile up points as a victory and loss by the Nuggets to the Spurs on Sunday would give the Lakers the No. 3 seed in the West. Denver has already signaled its intention to surrender to the Spurs by planning to rest their starters and key rotation players. Nikola Jokic needs to play 20 minutes to qualify for awards, so he’ll likely play and then get pulled after 20 minutes.

As for the Jazz and Lakers, don't look for much if any defense to be played. 

This is a big game for the Hornets. Not only is it their final regular season home game, but they are trying to catch the Raptors to earn the sixth playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.

Charlotte also wants to prove it can beat Detroit having lost both meetings to the Pistons this season.

The situation lays out for the Hornets to do just that. The much improved Hornets are 11-4 in their last 15 games. They have covered nine of their past 12 games and have been idle since Tuesday.

The Pistons don't need this game. They have earned a well-deserved rest having clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

Cade Cunningham returned to the Pistons this past Wednesday after having missed 11 games because of a collapsed lung. Cunningham may not play on Friday, though. If he does, he likely will be on a minutes restriction.

The Heat have given up 121 or more points in 10 of their last 12 games. They are 3-9 SU and ATS during this span and all but locked into a play-in spot in the playoffs.

Miami also could be without its leading scorer, Norman Powell, who is questionable with a groin injury.

The Raptors are 3-0 versus Miami this season. Toronto has won these games by an average of 19 points. The Raptors just buried the Heat, 121-95, at home two days ago.

The Raptors are going to be motivated trying to hold on to the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Portland's season defensive average is not indicative of how well the Trail Blazers have been playing defensively lately. The season numbers are 116.1 points a game allowed, which ranks 18th.

But if you discount a 137-132 road loss to the Nuggets, the top scoring team in the NBA, in their last game the Trail Blazers have allowed an average of only 99.3 points during their previous six games. Portland had a string of four straight Under's stopped after its overtime loss to Denver.

Look for the Trail Blazers to begin a new Under streak tonight taking on the Spurs, who aren't likely to have superstar Victor Wembanyama (bruised ribs) and Stephon Castle (leg injury). Those two combine to average more than 40 points a game. San Antonio lacks a low post scoring presence without Wembanyama.

Portland remains without injured Jerami Grant. He is the Trail Blazers' third leading scorer at 18.6 points a game.

San Antonio surrenders the seventh fewest points per game and ranks fourth in defensive field goal percentage. 

Sparked by the return of all-time great Stephen Curry, Golden State nearly upset Houston at home this past Sunday losing by one point. The game was nationally televised and Curry made it exciting.

The Warriors and their crowd were up for that game as it was Curry's first action in more than two months. This matchup against lowly Sacramento is much different.

Golden State realistically is locked into the No. 10 seed in the Play-In Tournament. This is the first of four games in six days to close out the regular season for the Warriors. Golden State coach Steve Kerr isn't interested in covering a lopsided point spread margin like this.

Kerr wants to get Curry acclimated again and to ease him into the playoffs. Curry, who missed 27 straight games because of a right knee injury, scored 29 points in just 26 minutes against Houston.

I doubt the Warriors have nearly the same intensity here that they did against Houston in Curry's first game back. Curry is going to be on a minute's restriction. While Curry will play, Jimmy Butler,  Moses Moody and Al Horford  are all out and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with knee injury.

Golden State is 5-14 in its last 19 games, including losing four in a row. The Warriors have won by more than 15 points just once in their last 29 games. Yes, most of those games were without Curry. But even with Curry, the Warriors are far from a dominant team.

Sacramento is 1-1 versus the Warriors this season. The Kings were blown out by the Clippers, 138-109, in their most recent game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Kings beat the Pelicans straight up as a 6 1/2-point underdog and upset the Raptors, 123-115, as a 13-point road underdog. The Kings have covered four of their last six games. 

Like him or not, Dan Hurley has done an excellent job getting UConn to this NCAA tournament title game. Unfortunately for the Huskies, an all-time great Michigan team awaits them.

Connecticut's tough defense isn't going to be able to stop the Wolverines and the Huskies' offense isn't good enough to trade points.

Michigan is averaging 94.4 points a game in its five NCAA tournament games. The Wolverines are the only team in tourney history to score 90 or more points in each of their first five games.

I don't think the Huskies are as good as Arizona and Michigan beat the Wildcats by 18 points.

Statistically, Michigan has the better numbers and the Wolverines played in the stronger Big Ten Conference. Michigan’s offensive firepower advantage and interior defensive dominance should not only result in a victory, but a cover too. 

The Lakers went into Oklahoma City this past Thursday having won 13 of their last 14 games and with their important players healthy. They left Oklahoma City with a 43-point loss and season-ending injuries to Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique).

Other than that the Lakers had a great time against the Thunder.

Now it is gut check time for the Lakers. They aren't going to beat many elite teams without Doncic and Reaves. Luckily for the Lakers they get the Mavericks here.

Dallas is 24-53, which is 16 games worse than the Lakers. The prideful Lakers are still 13-2 in their last 15 games. The Mavericks are 1-8 in their last nine games, 14-25 at home and have covered only 42 percent of their games this season.

The point spread is small because of the Lakers' key injuries. But LA still has enough talent and savvy to cover against this opponent. 

The Hornets have been one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the season, winning 28 of their last 31 games. Kudos to Charlotte.

But our concern is the point spread. Charlotte is just 7-7 ATS in that regard the past 14 games, while the Pacers have covered seven in a row. Indiana's flying below the radar with straight up victories against the Bulls and Heat in its last two games.

Indiana only has lost by more than 15 points once in its last 12 games. The Pacers are 2-1 against Charlotte this season.

Of utmost importance is the situation. Indiana was idle on Thursday while Charlotte played and defeated the Suns, 127-107, at home. This will be the Hornets' fifth game in the last seven days and they will be playing without rest.

Charlotte has the incentive of  competing for playoff seeding, while the Pacers are playing for a high draft choice.

However, the Hornets have to be smart about things. Following this matchup, their final four regular season games are against the Timberwolves, Celtics, Pistons and Knicks. So the backdoor could swing wide open for the Pacers if they were to fall substantially behind. 

The Trail Blazers have won seven of their last 10 games. They just achieved one of their bigger wins of the season beating the Clippers as a 4 1/2-point road underdog two days ago.

The Pelicans enter this game having lost five straight.

Easy to back Portland right? Not so fast.

The Trail Blazers are in a potential letdown situation and have a bigger game on deck against the Nuggets. Note, too, that nine of Portland's last 11 victories have occurred against the Nets twice, Pacers twice, Jazz,  Wizards, Bucks, Grizzlies and Bulls.

The Pelicans have played far stronger competition during their losing streak taking on the Cavaliers, Knicks, Pistons, Raptors and Rockets.

New Orleans is eliminated from postseason contention. But to their credit, the prideful Pelicans have not tanked. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.

Portland's Jerami Grant will miss his second consecutive game due to a strained right calf. He is Portland's third leading scorer at 18.6 points per game.

Trey Murphy III, New Orleans' leading scorer at 21.7 points per game, could return here after missing the last three contests because of a sprained right ankle. 

Motivation. Rest edge. Home court. These three factors should prove pivotal for the Magic to beat the Suns.

Orlando is 22-14 at home. This is just the Magic's second game in five days. They will have tremendous incentive not only in revenge for a 113-110 double overtime loss to the Suns on Feb. 21, but also for the most lopsided loss in franchise history during their last game. That came this past Sunday, 139-87, to the Raptors in Toronto.

That was Orlando's seventh loss in its last eight games. This is a huge circle-the-wagons game for the Magic.

The Suns will be playing their third game in four days and second in two days after beating the Grizzlies, 131-105, at Memphis Monday night.

Phoenix is 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing without rest. The Suns also have a losing road record on the season. 

This is a nationally televised matchup and a big game for both teams. Oklahoma City is only two games ahead of the Spurs for the number one seed in the Western Conference.

The Thunder give up the second fewest points in the NBA at 107.7 and rank first in defensive field goal percentage.

The Knicks are third in the Eastern Conference standings. They rank 5th in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage.

Both teams play at a below average pace. There were only 203 points scored in the last meeting, which the Thunder won, 103-100, at New York on March 4. 

This is a supreme buy low spot on the Bucks. Not that they were going to make the playoffs, but the Bucks were officially eliminated from the postseason with their, 127-95, home loss to the Spurs on Saturday. The Spurs have the second-best record in the NBA.

Any pressure the Bucks may have felt is now lifted. So the Bucks should be playing loose and relaxed here at home. Milwaukee also should be up for this game as it is short revenge. The Clippers steamrolled the Bucks, 129-96, in Los Angeles just six days ago. The Clippers are a major step down in class from the Spurs. 

The Clippers have some age on them and this is their seventh game in 12 days. It is also an early start time for LA.  

Even against the lowly Wizards, Golden State can't be laying this many points. The Warriors are down four rotation players, including their two best players Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. They are not nearly as good minus Curry.

Warriors coach Steve Kerr has accepted his team's play-in fate.

The Wizards blew out the Jazz by 23 points in their last game on the road two days ago. That stopped a long Washington losing streak.

Note, though, the Wizards have played a very tough schedule with six of their previous seven games coming against the Knicks, Thunder, Pistons twice, Celtics and Magic. They have a winning ATS record in their last eight games.

Only twice since Jan. 30 have the Warriors won a game by more than 14 points. The last time they did it was against the Grizzlies on Feb. 25. 

Not only do we have two outstanding defensive coaches in this matchup in Tom Izzo of Michigan State and Dan Hurley of Connecticut, each with ample preparation time, but both these teams rank among the top 15 in defensive efficiency.

Michigan State has a top 25 defense and limits second chance possibilities ranking sixth in defensive rebounding. The Spartans can handle Connecticut big man Tarris Reed in the post.  

The Huskies give up the 10th fewest points per game at 65.3 and rank 17th in defensive field goal percentage.

Michigan State is averaging 84.3 points in its three postseason games. The Spartans have made 32-of-69 (46.3 percent) 3-point shots during these last three games. I see regression coming for Michigan State. The Spartans made 35.5 percent of their 3-point shots during the regulation season. 

Maybe the most impressive thing about Iowa's upset of Florida last week was the Hawkeyes achieved the victory despite their star, Bennett Stirtz, going 0-for-9 from 3-point range and scoring only 13 points.

Nebraska is on house money having ended an 0-8 NCAA Tournament history and survived Vanderbilt, 74-72. The Commodores made just 41% of their shots from the field and made only 58% of their free throws against the Cornhuskers.

Credit to Nebraska's defense. But Iowa's defense is slightly better than the Cornhuskers. Plus the Hawkeyes are the superior defensive rebounding team and free throw shooting team. They beat Nebraska, 57-52, at home and lost in overtime to the Cornhuskers on the road.

These two Big Ten teams certainly know each other well. No knock on Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg, but Iowa's Ben McCollum is in the argument for best coach in the country and Stirtz is the best player on the floor.

I like that McCollum has ample time to prepare for Nebraska's unique defense and its heavy reliance upon 3-pointers.

Because the Cornhuskers are so reliant upon shooting 3-pointers, it is more of a negative to them with this game being played at a neutral site, the Toyota Center in Houston. 

Never mind the Pelicans' overall season record. They are much better than that record shows. The proof is in their recent point spread mark. New Orleans is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games.

The Pelicans were idle last night. The Pistons went overtime against the Hawks. Detroit remains without Cade Cunningham, its best player. This also is Detroit's fifth game in eight days. Jalen Duren and Tobias Harris are dealing with knee and hip injuries. So they may not play either for the Pistons. Big man Isaiah Stewart is out, too.

The Pistons are four games better than the next closest team in the Eastern Conference with 10 games remaining. That is a secure lead and allows them to not overextend any of their players. 

Maybe it is because they want Cooper Flagg to win Rookie of the Year honors. Because lately the Mavericks have proven to be quite feisty. They have taken both the Warriors and Clippers to overtime in their last two games.

The Nuggets have not been anything special the past two months going just 13-13.

But what really makes Dallas a strong play here are the scheduling dynamics. The Mavericks were idle yesterday. Denver wasn't. The Nuggets had to go all out to squeeze a 125-123 road win against the Suns last night. All but one of Denver's starters played at least 32 minutes in that game.

The last time the Nuggets played without rest was a week ago against the Grizzlies. Memphis not just  covered as 12 1/2-point home 'dogs, but won straight-up, 125-118. This is Denver's sixth game in nine days, too. It is a big letdown spot for the Nuggets.

Dallas has put up 120 or more points in five of its last seven games. The Nuggets rank 20th defensively. Denver's strength is its offense and No. 1 ranked 3-point shooting. The Mavericks' defensive strength is their No. 2 ranked 3-point defense.

The Mavericks are 2-1 against the Nuggets this season. 

The records show UNLV to be 18-16 and Tulsa 27-7. Sometimes records are not a good indicator of who is going to cover, especially when it comes to the NIT.

But not in this case.

Tulsa is a much better team than UNLV on both sides of the ball. Toss in a home court edge and this point spread is too short.

The Golden Hurricane rank 23rd in the country in scoring and have the 11th best 3-point shooting percentage. UNLV has much worse defensive numbers, ranks 99th in scoring and 148th in 3-point shooting.

The Rebels' 3-point defense goes all the way down to 303rd when they are the road team. UNLV also has trouble limiting turnovers when away from home.

UNLV is heavily reliant upon one scorer, Dra Gibbs-Lawson. However, Gibbs-Lawson runs hot and cold. 

Congrats to Nebraska on winning its first-ever NCAA Tournament game beating Troy, 76-47. The Cornhuskers don't have long to savor that historic win from Thursday. They are back in action today against a much stronger opponent - Vanderbilt.

Not only are the Commodores tough on both ends of the court, but Nebraska hasn't strung together consecutive point spread covers since January.

Not only does Vanderbilt have one of the best interior defenses in the SEC, but the Commodores rank 21st in the nation in scoring at 86.4 points per game. They are the third most accurate free throw shooting team in the country at 79.4%. Vanderbilt shoots a lot of free throws, too, averaging 18.5 per game.

Flashy Alabama leads the nation in scoring, averaging 91.7 points a game. But there are factors working against the Crimson Tide that point to a cover for underdog Hofstra.

The Crimson Tide will be without Aden Holloway. He is their second leading scorer at 16.8 PPG. Holloway was arrested on a felony drug charge and has been suspended from the team.

Hofstra gives up 66.2 points a game, 16th-best in the country. That is 17 points fewer per game than what Alabama gives up. The Pride also rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage.

Yes Alabama is a team from the powerhouse SEC while Hofstra made its way into the tournament by winning the Coastal Athletic Association Tournament. But the Pride have been playing well going 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games. Their style is a complete contrast to Alabama.

The Crimson Tide like to run and play fast. Hofstra is just the opposite. They play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. The Pride are patient and deliberate. Even if their shooting is off, they are live to get second and third shots as Alabama ranks 355th in defensive rebounding.

Utah is home. Think Over. The Jazz have gone Over an astounding 71 percent of the time when playing at home going 24-10 to the high side.

It makes sense. Utah has the worst defense in the NBA giving up 125.2 points a game and are second to last in 3-point defense. But the Jazz also are the ninth highest scoring team in the league at 117.2 points per game.

No Giannis Antetokounmpo, no playoff hope for Milwaukee. The Bucks are in free fall just 2-9 in their last 11 games. That puts them 6 1/2 games behind 10th place Charlotte in the NBA Eastern Conference.

Neither team is in good defensive form. The Bucks are allowing 123.1 points a game in their last six games. The Jazz are permitting an average of 130.2 points in their last four games.

The pride of winning is gone for both of these teams. So look for a loosely played game with nothing on the line except putting up stats. 

Texas A&M is going to have a lot of trouble with Saint Mary's grind out, slow down style. I rate the Gaels' Randy Bennett as one of the better coaches in the country. Bennett has had ample time to prepare his team for the Aggies' frenzied style.

The Aggies give up nearly 14 more points per game than Saint Mary's and are a very bad defensive rebounding team. The Aggies are not in great form either, just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. They are 3-9 versus NCAA Tourney teams this season.

Saint Mary's ranks 21nd defensively giving up 66.3 points a game. They are 10th in 3-point shooting. Since Feb. 1, the Gaels have had the best 3-point shooting percentage of any team in the field. Oh yes, the Gaels also are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the country. 

It would have been better for Arkansas to have played on Friday. The Razorbacks could have used the rest after winning the SEC tournament by playing this past Friday, Saturday and Sunday taking out Vanderbilt, Mississippi in overtime and Oklahoma by three points. That took a lot of energy and emotion for the Razorbacks.

I don't trust John Calipari to have Arkansas up for this game after winning the SEC Conference Tournament. The Razorbacks are making the long trip to Portland, Oregon and this is an early start time. Hawaii has been in Las Vegas. The Rainbow Warriors have a much shorter journey.

Calipari teams are 2-8 ATS as 15-point favorites or more in the NCAA Tourney.

Arkansas is not a great defensive team ranking 312th. Hawaii ranks 18th in 3-point defense and is well-coached.  

Siena should be a monster underdog to Duke. But not by this many points considering the circumstances and how the teams match up.

The Saints give up 66.5 points a game, which ranks 22th in the nation. They play at an extremely slow tempo. That means this will be a low possessions game.

Duke is in a very tough region. The Blue Devils will be missing a couple of starters. Their goal isn't to cover a huge number. It's to use this game as a rest stop. That means the Blue Devils will be sitting their starters once they build up a big enough lead.

The Saints rely heavily on their five starters. So the backdoor will be open if necessary because Siena won't be substituting. 

A large part of the NIT is what teams are happy to participate and what teams are disappointed because they didn't make the NCAA Tournament. Illinois-Chicago falls into the former while California is in the latter.

Illinois-Chicago will take part in postseason play for the first time in 22 years. This is very exciting for the Flames. UIC earned this distinction by winning 14 of 19 games to close the season. The Flames are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.  

The Golden Bears did not close well, losing three of their last four games, including a 95-89 setback to Florida State in the ACC Tournament. They have a losing ATS mark in their last 10 games.

Illinois-Chicago is more accurate from the field than California and also gives up fewer points per game than the Golden Bears. 

This high point spread might be accurate if Auburn cared about this game. But the Tigers don't. They are still disappointed about being omitted from the 68-team NCAA Tournament field fight despite having played the third hardest schedule in the country.

I don't see the Tigers being ready, or motivated, to play up to their capability. They are 3-9 in their last dozen games.

South Alabama, on the other hand, has plenty of incentive. “It’s an honor for our team to be invited to play in the NIT,” South Alabama coach Richie Riley was quoted as saying. “This group has battled adversity all season and is truly deserving of this opportunity. I’m thankful that I’m going to get to coach these guys for a little longer.”

The Jaguars are 21-11. They've only lost once by more than 13 points and that came to East Tennessee State, which won the Southern Conference.

South Alabama has the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in Chaze Harris, who averages 18.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. The Jaguars will be going all out to prove themselves against their bigger in-state rival. 

The Rockets have a rest advantage and home court edge where they are 23-8. They also draw the Lakers fat and happy after LA escaped with a controversial, 127-125, overtime home win against the Nuggets this past Saturday.

Houston matches up well to the Lakers. That was evident in the previous meeting this season between the two teams. The Rockets buried the Lakers, 119-96, at LA on Christmas Day. The Lakers had all of their star players in action, too.

The Lakers' problem against the Rockets is their offense is set up for their star players to do their thing in isolation rather than do a lot of off ball movement. Houston's defense is more bothered by motion offenses. 

The Rockets' defense has been in good form lately, too, giving up 105 or fewer points in regulation during four of their last six games.

This is an early start time between two defensive-minded division rivals. Oklahoma City is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA giving up an average of 107.8 points a game. The Thunder also rank first in defensive field goal percentage.

If you discount giving up 126 points to the Nuggets, the Thunder are surrendering an average of 98.8 points a game during their last five games. The Thunder also play at a slower than average pace.

Minnesota isn't going to push the pace either, playing for the fourth time in six days. The Timberwolves rank in the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and defensive rebounding. They have something to prove here. 

I like Utah Valley to beat California Baptist in the Western Athletic Conference Tournament championship game.  The Wolverines had their scare in yesterday's game beating UT Arlington, 67-65, as an 8 1/2-point favorite. Utah Valley got the rust off in that game having not played for six days. The Wolverines also got used to the small venue at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, site of the tournament.

Utah Valley has won 10 of its last 11 games, including the past seven. The Wolverines average 84 points a game, which is 11 more than California Baptist averages. Utah Valley ranks 11th in the country in field goal percentage. The Lancers rank 299th in field goal percentage.

The two teams are next to even in defensive field goal percentage ranking 38th and 39th, respectively, holding opponents to 41.4 percent shooting.

Utah Valley has defeated the Lancers in eight of the last 10 meetings.

The Nuggets just beat the Lakers, 120-113, at home nine days ago. The Lakers had all of their star players in that game while Denver was missing Aaron Gordon.

Now the Nuggets have Gordon and are at full strength. The oddsmaker has installed the Nuggets as a road favorite because Denver is the superior team. Early marketplace activity on the game agrees. So do I.

Each team has their stars. The Lakers with Luka Doncic, LeBron James and Austin Reaves. Denver with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and now Gordon. The difference is Denver has the stronger bench. I don't trust the Lakers'  supporting players.

Since beating the Lakers, the Nuggets have played the Spurs - who they beat 136-131 - Rockets, Thunder and Knicks. Denver is averaging 130.3 in their last three games.

The Lakers have played much weaker opponents since losing to the Nuggets going against the Bulls, slumping Timberwolves, Knicks and Pacers. 

UConn is an elite defensive team giving up the ninth fewest points in the country at 65.3 per game. The Huskies also play at one of the slowest paces. Georgetown is well below average in tempo, too.

The Hoyas held Villanova to 64 points and DePaul to 56 points during their first two games of the Big East Conference Tournament.

Going into today, there have been more Unders than Overs in the Big East Tournament. No surprise as the tournament site is Madison Square Garden, which has been a tough venue for scoring. 

St. Joe's is the hottest team in the Atlantic 10 going into the conference tournament. The Hawks have won and covered their past six games. Even more remarkable, is that St. Joe's is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games for 87.5 percent.

The Hawks are the more rested team for this quarterfinal matchup against Davidson. The Wildcats struggled with 14th-seeded Loyola Chicago on Thursday before winning in overtime.

St. Joe's nearly blew a 15-point lead when it last played Davidson nine days ago at home. The Hawks did win that game, 70-67. 

The Raptors return home in stop-the-pain mode having lost six of their last eight games. Phoenix, on the other hand, has won four in a row.

Yet Toronto has been installed as a solid home favorite here. The oddsmaker is no dummy. There are reasons for this.

Toronto has played strong competition recently losing on the road to the Rockets and Timberwolves, while also suffering close home losses to the Spurs and Thunder.  

Phoenix has put together its win streak against inferior competition beating the Pacers last night, Bucks Hornets and Pelicans. Those four teams are a combined 69 games below .500.

Not only are the Suns playing without rest, but this marks their sixth game in nine days.

LeBron James is dealing with a sore hip and foot. James may will himself to play today because the Bulls and their 25th-ranked defense are in town for the Lakers.

This is the team's second meeting this season. The Lakers won, 129-118, at Chicago on Jan. 26. Luka Doncic scored 46 points, his second-most in a game this season, in that victory. That total went Over and this one should, too.

The Lakers are the most accurate shooting team in the NBA at 49.8 percent from the floor. They have reached at least 120 points in four of their last seven games, playing stronger defensive teams than Chicago.

LA might not have its full defensive intensity as this is a flat spot. The Lakers are off consecutive home victories against the Timberwolves and Knicks. They host the Nuggets following this game. Marcus Smart is doubtful for Los Angeles. That is a plus for the Under as Smart is a much better defensive guard than scorer.

The Bulls are off a, 130-124, road overtime victory against the Warriors this past Tuesday. Matas Buzelis scored a career-high 41 points, while Josh Giddey added 21 points and 17 assists for Chicago. 

Even though Louisville nipped Miami, 92-89, during the team's final regular season game  this past Saturday. I believe Miami is the superior team and will prove it today.

The Cardinals snuck past Miami by making 60% of their shots from the floor and shooting 50% from three point range. I don't see Louisville being that hot again. The Hurricanes have the better defense and are the superior shooting team ranking 10th in the nation in field goal percentage at 50.6.

Miami is 7-2 in its last nine games and has covered six of its past eight games. Power forward Malik Reneau is a matchup nightmare for Louisville, which has struggled with its interior defense.

The Hurricanes have a rest advantage, too. They last played five days ago while the Cardinals had a tough, 62-58, victory against SMU on Wednesday. 

The Jazz have gone Over in 23 of their 33 home games. That's nearly 70%. This matchup should go Over, too.

The Knicks have a top 10 offense. They rank fourth in 3-point shooting and will be in an ornery mood following consecutive road losses to the Clippers and Lakers. The game before those two, the Knicks put up 142 points against the Nuggets in Denver.

Utah is the worst defensive team in the NBA. The Jazz allow an average of 124.9 points a game. They rank second to last in 3-point defense.

The Jazz try to get around their bad defense by playing at the fifth highest pace in the league and taking a lot of shots. They rank eighth in scoring. The Knicks just gave up 126 points to the up-and-down Clippers. 

Forget that UNLV was blown out by Wyoming, 98-66, the first time these two teams played this season. That was back on Jan. 6 and it was in Wyoming.

The Rebels are playing much better now and they get the advantage of playing at home in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. That makes a huge difference. UNLV is 10-6 at home. Wyoming is 3-9 on the road.

UNLV is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Rebels may have the best player in the Mountain West, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. He is a tremendous offensive talent averaging 21 points per game - best in the conference - while shooting 50.9% from the field and 84.7% from the free throw line.

Sparked by Gibbs-Lawhorn, the Rebels are averaging 80.2 points per game, which is their highest since the 2017-18 season.

Wyoming has failed to break the 70-point barrier in 11 of its past 15 games. 

The Nuggets and the Thunder just met on Feb. 27. Oklahoma City won, 127-121. That game went into overtime, however. The combined points during regulation was just 214. 

Denver has been held to 108 points or fewer in regulation during four of its last six games. The Thunder rank second defensively holding foes to an average of 107.6 points a game. The Thunder rank first in defensive field goal percentage. 

Oklahoma City, though, has been having trouble scoring lately averaging 105.7 points a game in its last four games. 

Nothing against Michigan, but I trust Tom Izzo and want Michigan State going for me with this many points. Michigan is the superior team. No argument there. But the Spartans are very good, too, and the Wolverines may not be as fully motivated as usual since they have already clinched the Big Ten title.

Michigan State had a disastrous first half in its first meeting against Michigan on Jan. 30. The Spartans missed 14 of their first 18 shots and trailed by 16 points at halftime. Michigan State ended up making only 4-of-23 shots from 3-point range for 17 percent. The Spartans average 35.6 percent from 3-point range on the season. Despite the horrendous shooting, Michigan State lost by only eight points.

I expect the Spartans to shoot better. Michigan gives up only 1.7 fewer points per game than Michigan. Both are very tough defensively. Michigan State leads the country in defensive rebound.

The Wolverines have less rotation depth than they did in the first meeting having lost sophomore guard L.J. Cason (8.4 ppg) to a torn ACL last week.

Even though this is an early March game, I'm expecting playoff-type intensity between the Celtics and Cavaliers, two of the four best teams in the Eastern Conference, in this nationally televised (ABC) game. 

Both Boston and Cleveland are in excellent defensive form. 

The Celtics are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, giving up an average of 107 points a game. They also rank second in defensive field goal percentage. If you discount the 118 points the Celtics surrendered to the Hornets two games, Boston is permitting only 94.7 points a game in its last seven games. 

Another reason why the Celtics have such good defensive numbers is because they play at the slowest pace in the NBA. 

The Cavaliers rank 14th defensively and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. Cleveland is permitting an average of only 103.2 points in regulation during its last five games. 

Donovan Mitchell is expected back after missing four games with a groin strain, while Jayson Tatum made his season debut in Boston's last game playing 27 minutes against Dallas. Both superstars could be dealing with rust issues. 

Note this is a very early start time. Often that's a plus for the Under. 

This spot sets up great for Colorado. The Buffaloes are tough in Boulder and Arizona does not have strong motivation having already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Conference Tournament.

Even if the Wildcats were to build up a big lead, the backdoor would swing wide open for Colorado as the Wildcats don't want to risk injury and extended minutes for their starters.

Colorado is 13-4 at home this season. The Buffaloes have won and covered their past four home games, including beating TCU during this span. They lost by only six points to Kansas at home and by just two points to Texas Tech at home when the Red Raiders had their star player, JT Toppin. 

Not only is Coastal Carolina better than Georgia Southern, but the Chanticleers have a huge rest advantage.

Georgia Southern, 8-10 in the Sun Belt Conference, is playing for the fourth straight day. Coastal Carolina enters this Sun Belt Conference Tournament quarterfinal completely rested having last played on Feb. 27. The Chanticleers earned their bye going 11-7 in conference action.

Coastal Carolina gives up nearly eight fewer points per game than the Eagles. The Chanticleers also hold a strong rebounding edge. They led the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding. 

The Grizzlies are not a good team. But they have been covering spreads, have a huge rest advantage and play at a fast pace.

None of this is good for the Clippers.

LA blew a 25-point lead and lost to the Spurs, 116-112, at San Antonio last night. Superstar Kawhi Leonard scored a game high 30 points for the Clippers. He also logged 37 minutes. This marks the Clippers' fifth game in seven days. So there is the possibility the fragile Leonard is rested.

While the Clippers carry an extraordinary high fatigue rating, the Grizzlies have been idle since Wednesday. Memphis is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games, including covering its past four games. The Grizzlies are plus 23 points during their last four games.

Not only is Missouri 15-2 at home and expecting a sell-out crowd for its final home game of the season, but the Tigers have far more at stake than Arkansas in this matchup.

A victory for the Tigers can be the difference between getting a double bye or coming in anywhere from a fourth to a 10th seed for the SEC Tournament.

Arkansas already has locked up a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. So the Razorbacks' motivation is far less than Missouri's.

The Razorbacks' road record is 4-5 compared to 16-1 at home and they surrender five points more per game than  Missouri. 

Drake has lost its last nine games. But don't count the Bulldogs out now that we've reached the Mountain Valley Conference Tournament. Drake has made five consecutive MVC Tournament championship games.

The ninth-seeded Bulldogs and eighth-seeded Southern Illinois have played two close games this season. Drake won the first meeting in overtime, 76-73, and lost, 66-61, to the Salukis last month.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup. That's evident by this very low total. The game is being played at a neutral site, Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is where the Blues play their home hockey games. It is a large arena made for hockey not basketball, thus presenting a tough shooting backdrop.

Drake knows how to win here, though. The Bulldogs also have the best player on the court in senior guard Jalen Quinn. He led the MVC in scoring this season at 19.4 points a game. That average climbs to 22 points a game in his two games against Southern Illinois. 

Milwaukee has lost three straight games. Atlanta has won four consecutive games. But on closer inspection the Bucks are the right way to go.

Not only are the Bucks in circle-the-wagons mode, but they have their superstar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, back from injury.

Antetokounmpo returned on Monday and got some of the rust off as Milwaukee lost, 108-81, to the Celtics. Antetokounmpo leads Milwaukee with 27.7 points and 10.1 boards per game. He also is averaging 5.5 assists per contest. His presence elevates Milwaukee. 

This is a huge step down in class for the Bucks going from the 41-20 Celtics to the 31-31 Hawks. As far as the Hawks' four-game win streak those victories were achieved against the Trail Blazers, Wizards twice and Nets. The combined record of those three teams is 60-124. All four of Atlanta's wins were at home, too.

Donovan Mitchell is having a monster season for the Cavaliers averaging 28.5 points (seventh highest in the NBA), 5.8 assists, and 4.5 rebounds while shooting 48.3% from the floor. Mitchell also is going to miss his fourth straight game because of a groin injury.

Cleveland is averaging 111.2 points in its past four games. The Cavaliers could only score 106 points against the lowly Nets this past Sunday in a 106-102 win. Detroit is fourth defensively giving up 109.4 points a game.

Detroit and Cleveland just met this past Friday with the Pistons beating the Cavaliers, 122-119 in overtime. It was 114-114 in regulation. There were 60 free throws shot in the game. 

Texas Tech quieted skeptics that they couldn't win without injured star player JT Toppin by upsetting Iowa State, 82-73, as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog this past Saturday.

But that victory puts the Red Raiders in a letdown spot here against TCU, whose strengths match up to Texas Tech's weaknesses. The Horned Frogs are good at forcing turnovers and getting to the free throw line. The Red Raiders can be foul-prone and turnover-prone.

TCU has beaten Texas Tech in five of the past seven meetings. The Horned Frogs are playing well, too, going 6-1 in their last seven games, including a victory against Iowa State. 

I get that the Jazz are tanking. They are a tough team to get behind. But this spot cannot be ignored. It is a fade on Denver.

Not only are the Nuggets 2-4 since the All-Star break, but they are playing for the third time in four days and second in two days. These have been draining games, too.

Denver lost in overtime to the Thunder in Oklahoma City this past Friday with its top four players all logging at least 40 minutes. Then the Nuggets fell at home to the Timberwolves, 117-108, on Sunday. Denver's three best players all logged between 37-39 minutes. Now the Nuggets go into high altitude again to play the Jazz in Utah.

The Nuggets already are short-handed with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson both out.

Utah just got back its second-leading scorer Keyonte George. He played in the Jazz's, 115-105, home loss to the Pelicans this past Saturday.

Laying double digits with the Nuggets is too much. given their traveling situation and fatigue factor. 

The defensive intensity should be off the charts for this matchup, the last regular season game between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's before Gonzaga moves to the Pac-12 next season.

My interest is the Under. It has cashed the past eight times in this series. That is not a fluke. Gaels coach Randy Bennett knows how to slow down and frustrate Gonzaga. Bulldogs coach Mark Few certainly is familiar with Saint Mary's.

Gonzaga has a top-20 defense. The Bulldogs have gone under in 13 of their 17 West Coast Conference games this season for 76 percent. One of these Unders was a 73-65 Gonzaga home win against St Mary's on Jan. 31. There were 46 free throws shot in that game, too.

The Gaels are elite again defensively ranking sixth in fewest points allowed and are second in defensive rebounding. They should be able to limit the Bulldogs' second chance scoring opportunities.

UNLV's Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is a great scorer. He is averaging 28.1 points per game since Jan. 1. But consistency and defense matter more. Those are edges Nevada possesses in this matchup and it puts me on the Wolf Pack.

These are some of the reasons why Nevada is 19-9 and 11-6 in the Mountain West while UNLV is 14-14 and 9-8 in the Mountain West.

The Rebels just scored a season-low 24 points in the first half during an 80-67 road loss to Grand Canyon this past Wednesday.

UNLV gives up an average of 81.7 points a game. Nevada allows 10 points fewer per game at 71.6 points.

The Wolf Pack handled the Rebels without problem, 89-76, at home as 7 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 30. A big key to that victory was Nevada shooting 31 free throws to UNLV's 11. But that wasn't some kind of homer aberration.

Nevada averages 25.5 free throws per game, 17th most in the nation. UNLV allows 26.3 free throws per game, which is the seventh most in the country. 

Cal Riverside ranks 258th defensively, giving up 77.4 points a game. The Highlanders are 317th in defensive field goal percentage.

So I am expecting a huge scoring game from the Gauchos. The key is if the Highlanders can score their share of points to push this total Over. I believe they can. Santa Barbara has allowed 78 or more points in five of its last six games.

The Highlanders have the conference's third-leading scorer in Andrew Henderson. 

I like St. Mary's to get revenge at home for a 62-54 road loss to Santa Clara last month. The Gaels shot 31 percent from the floor, were 4-of-22 from 3-point range and made only 64% of their free throws in that loss even though they are the No. 1 most accurate free throw shooting team in the country at 80.4 percent.

Santa Clara is a good, but not great defensive team like St Mary's is. The Broncos are giving up an average of 82.7 points during their last four games.

The Gaels give up the sixth-fewest points in the country at 64.3 per game. Santa Clara relies heavily on getting second shots. St. Mary's, though, ranks third in defensive rebounding.

The 25-4 Gaels are in excellent current form winning five straight, including road wins at Washington State and dominant home victories against Pepperdine (88-60) and San Francisco (79-54). They have not lost at home all season. St. Mary's is giving up only 56.2 points a game during its last four home games. 

No Stephen Curry again for the Warriors. But the difference here is Golden State wants to win. They have postseason hopes. Memphis doesn't. The Grizzlies are without their best player. too, as Ja Morant remains out with an elbow injury.

After upsetting the Nuggets at home this past Sunday, the Warriors had a letdown and a bad shooting game against the Pelicans last night in a 113-109 road loss.

Steve Kerr will have the Warriors ready for this matchup following that loss. 

The Grizzlies may have hit a new season low in a season of lows. The Kings ended their franchise-worst 16 game losing streak against Memphis beating the Grizzlies, 123-114, at Memphis two days ago.

The Grizzlies are 3-12 in their last 15 games. They are surrendering an average of 125 points per game during their last 10 games. 

Tremendous victory for the short-handed Warriors against the Nuggets this past Sunday on national television. Golden State defeated Denver, 128-117, as a 6 1/2-point home underdog despite not having Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis and Jimmy Butler.

Ancient Al Horford stepped up to score 22 points against Denver. But now Horford is questionable along with Green. Curry, Porzingis and Butler are all out.

New Orleans has a big advantage given the spot. The Pelicans haven't played since Saturday, are home and playing well with three victories in their last five games. Two of these wins were against the 76ers and Timberwolves. Both of those teams have a better record than Golden State.

The Warriors haven't been nearly as good on the road where they are 11-16. Golden State has lost the past six times following a home victory. 

The Knicks are not the same team on the road just 14-13 on the season. Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Cavaliers are 14-3 in their last 17 games. Two of these losses occurred to the defending champion Thunder. 

Cleveland has won and covered its last five home games and won't lack motivation coming off an 8-point road loss to the Thunder and having double revenge for a pair of road losses to the Knicks when it wasn't playing nearly as well.  

The Cavaliers are back to full strength, too, with Eric Mobley back in the lineup.

Cincinnati is off a stunning, 84-68, road upset of Kansas this past Saturday. The Bearcats were 8 1/2-point underdogs.

I would be very surprised if Cincinnati pulls off a similar away upset here against Texas Tech. Not only are the Bearcats in a letdown spot, but they are 2-5 in their Big 12 road games.

Cincinnati's defense has been much worse when not playing at home and the Bearcats rank last in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting percentage. They also are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation ranking 334th.

Texas Tech is 13-1 at home. That includes a 6-1 conference home mark. The Red Raiders are second in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting percentage and in field goal percentage. They average 10 more points per game than Cincinnati.

I thought this line would be much higher even with star big man J.T. Toppin lost for the season with a knee injury. The Red Raiders blew out Kansas State, 100-72, as 12 1/2-point home favorites on Saturday in their first game without Toppin, who was the Big 12 Player of the Year last season.

This line has been discounted because of Toppin being out. Texas Tech, however, has a deep roster and still has star players with Christian Anderson, who averages 19.1 points a game and leads the Big 12 in assists, and Donovan Atwell. He leads the Big 12 with 100 made 3-pointers and is second in the conference in 3-point shooting accuracy.

The Red Raiders are anxious to prove they can still win without Toppin and they want to do it at home in front of a national TV audience with this game being broadcast on ESPN2. 

It hasn't happened yet, but the Spurs-Pistons could turn into a huge rivalry in the next few years. These are emerging powers. San Antonio is on an eight-game winning streak. Detroit holds the best record in the NBA and has won 16 of its last 20 games.

Something has to give here. I believe the spot is right for the Pistons.

This is the start of a five-game East Coast road trip for the Spurs. The competition level is going to be raised. San Antonio has been fortunate to draw recent opponents that have not been at full strength.

The Spurs beat the Suns when Phoenix was without Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen and then lost five-time All-Star Devin Booker in the second quarter to a hamstring issue. San Antonio drew the Warriors without Stephen Curry, faced the Lakers when LA was missing Luka Doncic and LeBron James and caught the Thunder minus Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Three of the Spurs' other victories during their streak came against the tanking Kings and twice versus the Mavericks.

Not only is Detroit a major step up for San Antonio, but the Pistons are healthy. Jalen Duren, one of the most underrated big men in the league, can make things difficult for Victor  Wembanyama.  

The Pistons are 21-6 at home. They rank third defensively and eighth offensively. They are first in the NBA in steals (10.6 per game) and forcing turnovers. So the Spurs backcourt also is going to be severely tested.

I find the Holy Cross-Bucknell total too high given how bad the offenses are on these two teams.

Holy Cross is 342nd in scoring, 300th in 3-point shooting and 346th in offensive rebounding. The Crusaders also are among the top 20 slowest paced teams in the nation.

Bucknell is just as bad offensively - if not worse. The Bison are 350th in scoring, 337th in field goal percentage and 341th in 3-point shooting. They rank even lower than Holy Cross in offensive rebounding.

The Bison are averaging only 61 points a game during their last five games. Like Holy Cross, they play at a very slow tempo.

There isn't a player on either team who averages more than 15 points a game.

Bucknell has lost four in a row. Holy Cross has dropped three consecutive games. This is a winnable game for each team so the defensive intensity should be up. 

East Carolina and Charlotte rank among the five lowest scoring teams in the American Athletic Conference.

East Carolina is particularly brutal on the offensive end ranking 315th in scoring, 332nd in field goal percentage and 365th in 3-point shooting.

Charlotte is no offensive prize either. The 49ers don't have a player who averages more than 12 points a game. They play very slow and don't take care of the ball, ranking 286th in turnovers per possession.

There were 143 combined points when the teams met on Jan. 18. Charlotte won, 73-70, as a short road 'dog. The 49ers do not figure to be as hot as they were in that game when they made 54.2 percent of their shots from the floor, hit 10 of 21 3-pointers and were 84.6 percent from the foul line.

Covering this large of a point spread isn't easy in the NBA. It is especially difficult when you are rusty and have multiple key injuries. That's the situation the Thunder are in hosting the Nets.

The Thunder haven't played in eight days. They will be without stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, along with sixth-man Ajay Mitchell.

Oklahoma City is 7-7 in its last 14 games as its injuries have taken a toll. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed the last five games with an abdominal strain. He is the second-leading scorer in the NBA at 31.8 points a game.

The Nets got their post-All-Star break rust off getting blown out by the Cavaliers, 112-84, on the road last night. Cleveland played an outstanding game in raising its hot streak to 11-1. The Thunder host the Cavaliers in a nationally televised Sunday game. Oklahoma City cares more about that matchup than hosting the lowly Nets.

Brooklyn coach Jordi Fernandez ripped his team after the blowout loss to the Cavaliers. “It was the lack of effort and readiness," he was quoted as saying. "I’m not going to let it fly. ... Once again, we know we’re better. Our standards are higher than this and now we’ve got to move onto the next one. We’ve got to hold everybody accountable, myself included, and then go and fight better.”

I'm expecting a much better effort from the Nets. The timing is right for them to make this a close game against a wounded powerhouse that is rusty and also in a look-ahead spot.

No Stephen Curry for the Warriors. That puts me on Boston.  The Celtics are the superior team, seven games better than Golden State.  The Warriors are going to go through an adjustment period after trading for Kristaps Porzingis, who is questionable. Golden State has far less depth now. Even if Porzingis plays, his minutes will be limited.  Boston is 17-10 on the road. Golden State is 2-7 ATS when taking more than five points this season.