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Two bad defensive teams with nothing to lose should mean enough points to go Over this total.

The Kings give up 122.3 a game, which ranks 26th. They are last in defensive field goal percentage.

Indiana is 24th defensively, permitting 119.5 points a game. The Pacers have picked up their offense lately scoring 120, 120 and 119 points during their last three games. 

The Mavericks are going for their first three-game win streak of the season.

I don't see them getting it.

The Heat are 7-1 in their last eight games. Miami is 2-0 in its past two road games winning by 10 points against the 76ers and by 36 vs. the Bulls.

Dallas still could be on Cloud Nine after stunning the Nuggets in Denver with a SU victory as an 11-point  underdog two days ago. 

The Mavericks are banged-up in the front court. Both P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford are questionable with ankle injuries. 

Kentucky is explosive, averaging 89.9 points a game. But for a top-20 team, the Wildcats have failed to step up defensively against elite competition. They surrendered 96 points to Louisville and 83 points to Michigan State in the Champions Classic.

Led by star 6-foot-10 freshman Caleb Wilson, North Carolina averages 83.4 points per game and is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Wilson had 24 points in the Tar Heels' impressive, 87-74, win against Kansas. The Jayhawks are a top 25 defensive team, giving up 64.5 points a game.

Kentucky is 5-0 at home in Rupp Arena and just beat Tennessee Tech, 104-54.

This matchup is part of the ACC/SEC Men's Challenge. I see both teams bringing their "A" offenses to the game. 

Kudos to the Kings, who in the last four days have pulled off stunning straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Nuggets on the road and Timberwolves at home in overtime.

Previous to that, however, Sacramento had lost eight consecutive games going 1-7 ATS. I don't see the Kings pulling a third straight upset victory hosting the Suns. Even with those upset wins, the Kings are just 5-13.

Sacramento is not going to have Domantas Sabonis, who is sidelined with a knee injury. Sabonis is Sacramento's best player. He leads the team in rebounding and is third in scoring.

The Kings also could be minus guard Dennis Schroder, who during the past six games is averaging 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Schroder is dealing with a hip injury.

Phoenix is in an angry mood after a disappointing, 114-92, home loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Suns had  won eight of nine before that defeat. Devin Booker draws all the attention for Phoenix with his 26.4 point scoring average, but quietly newcomer Dillon Brooks has been huge for the Suns. Brooks is averaging 22.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.9 steals.

Booker and Brooks should have big games against a Sacramento defense that ranks 27th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage.

It would not be surprising if Miami rested some of its rotation players. The Heat raced to a, 127-117, victory against the 76ers on Sunday. The Heat had four players log more than 30 minutes against the 76ers.

Not only are the Heat playing without rest, but this marks their fifth game in eight days. The Heat need all of their energy because they are playing at a much faster pace than in previous seasons.

The Mavericks are a disappointing 5-13. But they've only lost by more than nine points once in their last eight games. Dallas has had several close losses during the span, losing to the Knicks by two points, Clippers in overtime and Bucks by two points.

Cooper Flagg has started to play better for the Mavericks and Dallas could get back its best player, Anthony Davis.

A neutral site game between two defensive-minded teams with shooting problems and who both play slow put me on the Under in this Princeton versus Bradley tournament matchup in Kissimmee, FL, at the ESPN Events Invitational.

Princeton ranks 346th in field goal percentage. Bradley is 295th in field goal percentage.

The Tigers have played a bunch of teams - Akron, Kansas and Iona to name three - who are strong in transition and like to run. Bradley is not like that. The Braves are a defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference school that does not push tempo.

The Braves are known for their hard-nosed defense under Brian Wardle. Princeton runs a very disciplined and patient offense. The Tigers' offense, though, has been down this season.

This total is nearly 10 points higher than what it was when the Spurs-Suns met three weeks ago. The Suns won that game, 130-118. So, yes, that total flew Over.

Much has changed for San Antonio since that game. The Spurs are without Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Jordan McLaughlin, all of whom played in that first meeting.

San Antonio gives up the third-fewest points per game in the NBA at 112.3. Phoenix hold's opponents to 114 points a game, which ranks eighth.

Both teams are in the bottom-10, too, in terms of pushing pace.

So I find this total too high.

Lafayette and Stonehill are a combined 2-9. They each have won one game. But I'm getting involved in the game because I don't see Lafayette justified as a road favorite.

Stonehill has won four consecutive games at home going back to last season. The Skyhawks' lone  home game this season was a 100-48 romp against non-board team Thomas College.

Lafayette struggles on the road and on the glass. The Leopards are 328th in offensive rebounding and rank 282nd in defensive rebounding. Stonehill is consistent on both ends of the glass ranking 162nd in offensive rebounding and 163rd in defensive rebounding.

The Leopards also have trouble scoring, ranking 324th in points per game and 356th in points per possession.

The Mavericks' terrible decision to trade Luka Doncic last season is still reverberating. Dallas GM Nico Harrison recently got fired because of that and the 4-11 Mavericks are off to their worst 15-game start since the 2017-18 season.

Dallas is 2-8 in its last 10 games. Anthony Davis is injured, of course, and won't play. An illness has hit the team where Cooper Flagg and Caleb Martin may not play leaving the Mavericks even more shorthanded.

The Knicks are 6-2 during their last eight games, but off a two-point road loss to the Heat two days ago. So New York won't lack motivation or focus.

Not only is there a class difference here, but the Mavericks are potentially very short-handed. 

The Nuggets have played strong defense in their last six games,  giving up an average of 108.6 points per game during this span. 

Denver ranks first on the season in 3-point defensive percentage.

The Bulls just had a wild high scoring game against the Jazz on Sunday, losing 150-147 in overtime. Now they will be playing without rest and in high altitude again.. So I don't see the Bulls looking to push pace.

The Bulls rely heavily on their 3-point shooting, ranking third in the league in accuracy. But the combination of tired legs and Denver's top-ranked 3-point defense is going to make it rough for Chicago.

There are only a handful of NBA players who are absolutely unstoppable. Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are two of them.

The Thunder are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging 122.8 points a game. They just scored 126 points against the Warriors last night. Golden State has a top-10 defense. The Lakers' defense isn't as good.

But thanks to Doncic, who is averaging a career-best 37.1 points, the Lakers are the No. 1 most accurate shooting team from the floor in the league.

LA figures to catch a break, too, as several of the top defensive players on the Thunder - Lu Dort and Jalen Williams to name two - are not likely to play because of injuries.

The last time Utah played was this past Friday at Minnesota. The Timberwolves buried the Jazz, 137-97. That was the most points Utah has surrendered all season.

Now it's the Jazz's turn to host the Timberwolves and the timing is good for Utah to get revenge.

Minnesota is playing for the third time in four days and without rest after downing the Kings, 144-117, in Sacramento on Sunday night.

The Jazz hold a winning spread record as they often are underpriced. That's the case in this matchup. 

The Spurs return home following a two-game West Coast trip where they lost to the Suns and Lakers, failing to cover in either game.

Awaiting the Spurs are the 5-2 Rockets. Houston went 52-30 last season and is better this year with the addition of Kevin Durant. The Rockets are rolling right now, winning five in a row with four coming by blowouts.

Houston is a much better team than San Antonio. The Spurs are going through growing pains. San Antonio superstar center Victor Wembanyama didn't play that well during the West Coast trip. Houston's Ime Udoka is one of the better coaches in the NBA. He has the pieces to defend against Wembanyama.

The Rockets are loaded with Durant, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun. They are much stronger than the Spurs, so laying this short road price is a bargain.

The Magic are getting back to their strong defensive ways, holding their last two opponents, Wizards to 94 points and Hornets to 107 points, both on the road. Having ace defensive guard Lee Suggs healthy is a plus.

The Hawks are playing slower and have less offense with Tray Young out with a knee injury. Young's absence hurts Atlanta's scoring, but is a plus defensively for the team.

Minus Young, the Hawks held the Pacers to 108 points two games ago and then held the Cavaliers to 78 points through three quarters in their last game. 

It wouldn't be surprising if the Lakers sit out some of their players tonight. LA is playing without rest and for the sixth time in nine days. The Lakers had to use up a lot of energy in outracing the Heat, 130-120, at home last night.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season riding a three-game win streak. This includes a 14-point road victory against the Lakers a week ago.

Unlike the Lakers, the Blazers come into this matchup well rested having last played on Friday.

It is not a surprise that the Nuggets and Trailblazers have combined to go Over in seven of their nine games this season.

Denver is the third-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging 128.1 points per game. The Nuggets rank No. 1  in both field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Portland has a below average defense.

The Trail Blazers are the seventh-highest scoring team in the league with the third-highest free throw percentage.

Portland also has the sixth-highest scoring bench. This is important because the Trail Blazers play at the fastest pace in the league. They go all out all the time because they have the speed, athleticism, length and depth to do this. It is their style. 

The good news for the Lakers is Anthony Edwards is out for Minnesota with a hamstring injury. The bad news for the Lakers is they are far more banged-up than the Timberwolves.

It is not just LeBron James and Luka Doncic who are out for LA, which is certainly horrendous enough, but the Lakers have a cluster injury problem at guard.

How bad were things for the Lakers in their last game, a 122-108 home loss to the Trailblazers on Monday? Bronny James saw nearly 20 minutes of playing time.

The Timberwolves aren't exactly going to take pity on the Lakers. Minnesota has revenge for a 128-110 road loss to the Lakers this past Friday. Doncic torched the Wolves for 49 points in that game.

Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid can all step up to replace the scoring lost by Edwards' absence. The Lakers don't have the depth, nor the scorers, to keep things close without LeBron James and Doncic. 

The Heat have changed their identity going from slow pace to very fast. It has resulted in impressive consecutive victories, a blowout of the Grizzlies and an 8-point win against the Knicks at home this past Tuesday.

Now the Hornets visit Miami. Charlotte is off to a nice 2-1 start. Note, though, those victories have occurred against the Wizards and Nets. Charlotte is not as good as Miami. The spot is bad for the Hornets, too, playing in their third road game in four days and not having rising star Brandon Miller. He has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.

Miami is second in the league in bench scoring. The Heat have the depth to take advantage of Charlotte's fatigue and missing Miller. They are worth backing in this spot.

Surprised that the marketplace has made the Raptors a home favorite against the Bucks? Don't be. Toronto is the right side. The oddsmaker is underrating the Raptors in this early going.

The Raptors upset the Hawks on the road by 20 points in their opener. Their rotation and depth is better this season.

The Bucks have already lost their point guard, Kevin Porter Jr., to an ankle injury in their opening season win against the Wizards. The Raptors have the perimeter defense and rim protector in Jakob Poeltl to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo in check.

Even without injured Tyrese Haliburton and traded Myles Turner, I'm expecting the Pacers to give the Thunder all they can handle after losing to Oklahoma City in seven games in the NBA finals last season.

The timing is good for Indiana. Not only did the Thunder barely survive a two-overtime win against the upstart Rockets two days ago, but they already have multiple injuries.

Jalen Williams remains out due to wrist surgery. Alex Caruso is in the league’s concussion protocol and Cason Wallace (knee) and Luguentz Dort (ankle) are both questionable after getting hurt in the Rockets' victory.

The Raptors begin the season below the radar. They had a top-10 defense during the second half of last season, have a healthy Brandon Ingram and a better bench. They also have familiarity with each other since four starters remained with the team.

The Raptors finished last season covering 64 percent of their last 22 games. 

The Hawks underwent some major roster changes. It's going to take some time for their newcomers to click with Trae Young. I see the Hawks having some difficulty with Toronto's defense. 

The Knicks were very good last season. But they were still 13 games worse than Cleveland, who dominated the Eastern Conference. Not only are the Cavaliers superior to the Knicks, but they have a tremendous record against New York at Madison Square Garden.

Cleveland has beaten the Knicks 16 of the past 22 times in New York. The Cavaliers have covered five of their past six road games against the Knicks, too.

The Cavaliers averaged 121.5 points on the road last season, best in the NBA.

New York also is in transition, learning new coach Mike Brown's system.

Can the Pacers become only the third team in the last 47 years to win a Game 7 NBA Championship Series on the road?

No.

The marketplace is in love with the Pacers for this Game 7. The oddsmaker opened Oklahoma City minus 9. Many bettors remember what they last saw and that was the Pacers wiping out the Thunder, 108-91, in Game 6.

That game was in Indiana. This one is in Oklahoma City where the Thunder have a home net rating of plus 20.7 in the playoffs. Oklahoma City also is 6-0 following a loss in the postseason. Indiana has not beaten Oklahoma City twice in a row during the series. The Pacers have lost by 11 and 16 points in their last two away games versus the Thunder.

Oklahoma City is the best defensive team in the NBA. No team creates more turnovers than the Thunder. Indiana's most dynamic player, Tyrese Haliburton, is not 100 percent. If the Pacers fall behind, which I expect, they will get desperate with this being Game 7. That could lead to even a larger winning margin for the Thunder.

I'm backing the Pacers knowing they might not have Tyrese Haliburton, or a severely banged-up Haliburton if he does play.

There is one certainty for this Game 6 matchup. The Pacers are home, in must-win mode and will be playing their guts out. Here's another fact, the Thunder are 1-8 ATS on the road during the playoffs. They just are not trustworthy away from Oklahoma City.

Indiana happens to be 3-0 ATS in Game 6's and 3-0 ATS when facing elimination under elite coach Rick Carlisle.  

The Pacers have had the stronger bench and all five of their starters averaged double-digits this season. They have the depth with T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard to compensate for Haliburton's situation. McConnell is playing at a high level averaging 11.2 points, 4.2 assists and two steals a game during 18 minutes of playing time.

I've seen enough. I don't know if the Pacers are quite good enough to win this championship series, but they sure are worthy of hanging around. So I'm not turning down this many points.

Yes, Oklahoma City has proven tough at home. Indiana, though, hasn't been chopped liver on the road in the postseason going 7-3 SU and ATS. The Pacers also have covered 66 percent of the time the past 74 times following a home loss.

I thought the Thunder would have a bench advantage. That hasn't been the case. Indiana has been able to play faster than Oklahoma City is comfortable with no matter what players are on the floor.

The series is tied at 2-2. That's because the Thunder got past the Pacers on the road in Game 4 after Indiana won Game 3 at home, 116-107. The Pacers could have won that Game 4, too. They certainly are not outclassed in this series, which this lopsided point spread indicates.

The points are too generous for me to pass up.

Pace tends to slow down and defensive intensity goes up the deeper that NBA playoff series goes on. 

Heavily favored Oklahoma City finds itself in trouble now down 2-1 in these NBA Finals. The Thunder have the best defense in the NBA. However, they have averaged just 107.9 points on the road during the playoffs. They can not count on anyone besides Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to come through on the offensive end. 

So I see the Thunder going back to their roots of stressing defense and walking the ball up the court. They don't want to get in an open-court back-and-forth with the Pacers, especially on the road. Their offense seems out of sync. I envision the Thunder being more patient offensively while being fully aware to get back quickly to defense, or Indiana will get easy fast-break points. 

The Pacers are where they are now because their defense has proven underrated. The Pacers have allowed fewer than 113 points per 100 possessions since the second week of December. That's above average.

If there was a doubt that Oklahoma City was overrated against Indiana in these NBA Finals following Game 1, it was erased with the Thunders' smashing, 123-107, beatdown of the Pacers in Game 2. 

The scene shifts to Indiana now. But I don't see anything changing. I'm in agreement with the oddsmaker that Oklahoma City is much the superior team. 

I don't believe the overachieving Pacers have the antidote to the Thunder's deadly combination of tremendous depth plus superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City rode that combo to the best record during the regular season and no team in the playoffs has been able to combat it. 

You can't win an NBA championship without at least one superstar. The Pacers' closest player to that distinction is the mercurial Tyrese Haliburton. I'll take Gilgeous-Alexander above Haliburton, especially with Haliburton seen limping following Indiana's Game 2 loss.

Unlike what this inflated point spread may indicate, this Game 1 moment isn't too big for the Pacers. It wouldn't even shock me if the Pacers stole this road game. 

The Pacers have four strong things going for them: They are the most accurate 3-point shooting percentage team in the postseason hitting at a 40.1 percent clip. They take care of the ball ranking third in turnover rate, which is where they finished during the regular season, and they are extremely well coached by Rick Carlisle. That results in the fourth factor, a tremendous point spread mark.

Indiana has covered 11 of its 16 playoff games for 69 percent! This includes a 6-1 ATS record during their past seven road games. When it comes to Game 1's, the Pacers are 3-0 with victories against the Bucks and straight-up road wins against the Cavaliers and Knicks as underdogs. 

The situation also is good for the underdog. Indiana last played on Friday. So the Pacers have had a good rest and the dangerous Carlisle has had ample time to draw up a solid game plan. The Pacers were 7-1 SU and ATS when they played this season with at least three days of rest. 

On the other hand, Oklahoma City has been idle for eight days. That's too long. It adds an extra element of randomness into the equation. Randomness is good for a large underdog. 

By the way, the Thunder had nine days off before they played the Nuggets after opening their postseason with a sweep of the Grizzlies. The Thunder were 10 1/2-point home favorites and lost that Game 1 to the Nuggets straight-up.

The Knicks stole a couple of games from the Celtics then caught a break when Jayson Tatum got hurt. The Knicks weren't better than the Celtics and they aren't better than Indiana. Sure New York has been somewhat magical. But I don't see them coming back from 3-1 down in this Eastern Conference series. A team hasn't done that in the East since 1981.

Since I regard the Pacers as the superior team, I'm backing them as an underdog in this Game 5.

The game is at Madison Square Garden. But getting this many points with the Pacers is well worth them being the away team and fading the zig/zag theory. Indiana has won and covered each of its last six road playoff games.

The deeper the series goes the more Indiana has the advantage. I say this because the Pacers have the better depth and coach. Not helping matters for the Knicks is that Karl-Anthony Towns also could be limited due to a knee injury.

Even though Jalen Brunson has emerged a superstar during the postseason, the Pacers' starters have been superior to New York's. The Pacers are quicker and more explosive. They've forced the Knicks to commit an uncharacteristic 15 turnovers per game in the series. Tyrese Haliburton has negated Brunson's dominance by his speed and all-around skill set.

Yes, Oklahoma City is the superior team and playing at home. But the tax to back the Thunder is way too high, especially given Minnesota is facing elimination. The Timberwolves have covered the past two games losing by only two points and winning by 42 points.

Since Feb. 13, the Timberwolves only have been an underdog of eight or more points three times. All were against the Thunder. Minnesota covered all three of those games, winning two straight-up.

The Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS, 4-3 SU when facing an elimination game under Chris Finch. 

Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, Minnesota's two best players, made 21 of 32 shots for a combined 54 points in Game 3. The pair, however, were only 6-of-20 from the floor for 21 points in Game 4. They probably won't be as hot as they were in Game 3, but certainly should be better than their Game 4 performance. Even with those two shooting so poorly, the Timberwolves only lost by two points. That bodes well for the Timberwolves staying within the number here.

OK, the Knicks got their first victory in this Eastern Conference Finals two days ago, 106-100. Credit to them. 

But the reality is the Knicks accomplished this by coming from 20 points down against what could have been an overconfident Pacers squad that was up 2-0 in the series, getting a monster performance from Karl-Anthony Towns and having the Pacers shoot horribly from 3-point range and commit an uncharacteristic eight turnovers in the second half. 

I see the Pacers cleaning this up and beating the Knicks at home in this Game 4. Indiana has the superior depth. The teams are playing for the fourth time in seven days. Sixth man Josh Hart went 34 minutes for the Knicks on Sunday. He might not be so effective being banged-up and on short rest.
 
Indiana shot 37.9 percent from 3-point range at home during the season. They made only 5-of-25 shots from beyond the arc on Sunday. That's 20 percent. The Pacers also had the third-lowest turnover ratio during the season, second in the playoffs. 

Coaching is another reason I like the Pacers. Rick Carlisle is a better tactician than Tom Thibodeau. As the series goes more games, the coaching edge grows.

Now that the Timberwolves got their bad game out of the way, I'm expecting a much better performance from them in Game 2 of this Western Conference Finals. 

One of the keys is the open looks were there for the Timberwolves. They just couldn't connect, especially key reserves Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo. Those two were a miserable 4-for-25 combined from the field. 

Minnesota also didn't do a good job of setting up Anthony Edwards. He attempted only 13 field goals, his second-fewest shots in 38 career playoff games. Julius Randle was his steady reliable self, though. Randle scored 28 points on 9-of-13 shooting from the floor. He's averaging 24.3 points in 11 playoff games this season hitting 52.3 percent from the floor and 39.3 percent from 3-point range. So the Thunder just can't key on Edwards. 

Oklahoma City can't but feel relaxed and perhaps overconfident after winning Game 1 by 26 points. The Timberwolves have to feel humbled and highly motivated to redeem their honor. 

The Thunder is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a win. Minnesota has won eight of its 11 playoff games. The Timberwolves are 2-0 SU and ATS following each of their previous postseason losses. They covered six of eight playoff games as a road underdog last season. Minnesota also went 11-6 for 65 percent as a road 'dog during the regular season.

The last time the Timberwolves lost two in a row by more than seven points, was way back on Dec. 21 and Dec. 23. That's a span of 65 games!

I regard the Pacers as the superior team. So, of course, I'm going to accept this many points with them. Indiana has the highest winning percentage in the playoffs at 80 percent winning eight of its 10 games. If you dip into the regular season, Indiana is 15-3 in its past 18 games.

Being on the road shouldn't bother the Pacers. They won all three of their away games against the Cavaliers in their last series.

The Knicks are heavily reliant upon Jalen Brunson and the rest of their starters. The Pacers have the better depth and two-way players. Indiana's players are incredibly versatile. Brunson may be the top offensive player on the court, but it's Indiana that outscores the Knicks by an average of 11 points during these playoffs. The Pacers are hitting 50 percent from the floor and 40 percent from 3-point range during the first two rounds.

The Pacers also are the fresher team. The Knicks still may be celebrating eliminating the Celtics.

I have enormous respect for Brunson, who's developed into a superstar for the Knicks. But after that give me Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. These guys aren't stars with the exception of Haliburton, but they complement each other well and are playing outstanding basketball. I see that continuing here.

Judging by the series price and Game 1 point spread it seems preordained that the Thunder are going to roll past the Timberwolves in this Western Conference Finals series.

Oklahoma City deserves to be favored. Just not by such inflated prices. The Thunder are especially vulnerable in Tuesday's Game 1 having just eliminated the Nuggets in Game 7 this past Sunday.

Minnesota, meanwhile, took care of business last Wednesday. The Timberwolves have had six days of rest and preparation for this series opener.

But it's not just the situation why I believe the Timberwolves will cover - if not beat the Thunder straight-up on Tuesday. People that should know better are sleeping on the Timberwolves.

Anthony Edwards is blossoming into a superstar. He's averaging 26.5 points in the playoffs. Jaden McDaniels is becoming one of the best two-way players and Julius Randle is playing the finest basketball of his life, which is a high bar. The Timberwolves are 30-6 in Randle's last 36 games.

Oklahoma City hasn't been in the position it is now, expected to win not only this series but its first championship. Minnesota has never won an NBA championship either. But the pressure is on the Thunder, not the Timberwolves.

While the Thunder had to labor seven games to take care of the Nuggets, the Timberwolves took out the Lakers in five games and then won four straight against the Warriors after losing the series opener.

My first lean is to the Under when it comes to getting involved with a Game 7. After studying this matchup, I feel confident going with my initial thoughts that Denver-Oklahoma City are going Under in this Game 7. 

Yes, I'm aware the teams combined for 226 points in the Nuggets' 119-107 Game 6 win this past Thursday. 

Previous to Game 6, however, the Thunder had held the Nuggets to an average of 100 points in regulation during the past four games, while Denver had held Oklahoma City to an average of 103.2 points in regulation during the last four games before Game 6. 

The Thunder ranked either first or second in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They are the best defensive team in the NBA. The Nuggets may be without Aaron Gordon, their fourth-leading scorer, who has a hamstring injury. 

Denver isn't as good defensively as the Thunder. But the Nuggets have deep playoff experience and can impose their will physically on the younger Thunder. Oklahoma City has shot 27.5 percent and 24.4 percent from 3-point range in two of the last three games.

It was the Jayson Tatum-less Celtics who stepped up and played with desperation at home in Game 5 this past Wednesday. That paid off in a big way as Boston staved off elimination.

Helping matters for the Celtics was hitting 22 of 49 3-point shots for 45 percent. That's nearly 10 percent better than they averaged during the regular season.

Now it's the Knicks' turn to play with desperation knowing a home loss here means a seventh and deciding game in Boston. Zero chance that the Knicks take the Celtics for granted knowing Tatum is out. That may have been the case, at least subconsciously, in Game 5.

Jalen Brunson now becomes the best player on the court with Tatum out. Little, if any, chance Brunson fouls out like he did on Wednesday after playing fewer than 33 minutes.

The Celtics have another key injury besides Tatum. Kristaps Porzingis, their best big man, could only log 12 first-half minutes before coming out of Game 5 because of a viral illness. Breathing issues may have contributed to Porzingis averaging a puny 4.2 points per game in the series. Reserve center Luke Kornet doesn't present the potential offense that Porzingis could supply if he were 100 percent.  

The Knicks have managed to steal three games in this series. They are overdue to play their "A" game for much of the game instead of just at the end. New York is home and Boston has crucial injuries and may have used up all their mental energy in winning Game 5.

I find enough evidence to believe the Knicks will close out the Celtics in Friday's Game 6.

Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau is a master defensive strategist. He's going to make proper adjustments after the Celtics blew the Knicks out, 127-102, in Wednesday's Game 5. Thibodeau's task is made easier with Jayson Tatum out and Kristap Porzingis rendered ineffective because of a viral illness.

Boston doesn't get enough credit for its outstanding defense. The Celtics finished in the top-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

If you discount the Knicks' 121-113 Game 4 victory, the Celtics have held New York to an average of 96.5 points during regulation in the other four games of this series.

Unders have been the way to go this deep into the playoffs in Games 6 and 7. Teams are dealing with fatigue at this late stage. Their concentration and intensity occurs more on defense than offense. That's the way I see this one playing out.

There's a reason why the Thunder are a road favorite against the Nuggets. They are the superior team. I look for the Thunder to close out Denver in Thursday's Game 6 Western Conference semifinal.

What gives me the confidence to say that is the Thunder are better defensively, have a much stronger bench, have less fatigue and their confidence and savvy has grown as the series has progressed. Oklahoma City has won the last two games in the series by poise and execution.

"We're a better team today than we were at the beginning of the series," Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault was quoted as saying. "We're definitely evolving and growing and learning."

The Thunder were the best team in the NBA entering the series - and are even better now.

Denver is wearing down as the series progresses. Interim Nuggets coach David Adelman had three players logging at least 42 minutes during Tuesday's Game 5. Aaron Gordon played 37 minutes. Michael Porter Jr.'s shooting is off because of an injured left shoulder.

By contrast, the Thunder had only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander play more than 38 minutes on Tuesday.

The Nuggets primarily have used just seven players. The fatigue factor weighs heavy on them. Oklahoma City is the fresher team. That's another key reason why I favor the Thunder to close out the series here.

The absence of superstar Jayson Tatum and the continued poor coaching of Joe Mazzulla very well could mean the playoff outster of the Celtics to the Knicks. But I don't see that happening in Wednesday's Game 5 in Boston.

The Celtics are going to be super motivated with tremendous resolve to win this game having suffered three collapses in this series to the Knicks, a team they are superior to. The obvious question is just how much better are the Celtics to the Knicks without Tatum?

Given the circumstances - step-up situation, being home and with the season on the line - I envision Boston playing with fire and brimstone that results in a blowout victory.

The Celtics won 71 percent of the time with Tatum. They are 8-2 (80 percent) without him. So the Celtics actually have a higher winning percentage when they were missing Tatum. All of those victories without Tatum were by at least six points, too.

If there's a key number in basketball it's 6. So getting anything more than six points with the home underdog Knicks in this crucial Game 4 playoff game is good value.

The Knicks aren't in Boston's class. However, the Knicks are resilient. They stole two games in Boston coming from 20 points down in each game. They have six playoff victories - and trailed in the fourth quarter during each game.

I don't see the Celtics routing the Knicks like they did in Game 3 when they won by 22 points. That was the Celtics' season and manhood being challenged. Boston also shot 50 percent from 3-point range making 20 of 40 shots in the win.

The Celtics certainly were due to shoot better than 25 percent from beyond the arc, which was their combined 3-point percentage during the first two games of the series. But highly unlikely they make half of their 3-pointers again. Probably somewhere in the middle since they ranked 10th in the league during the regular season in 3-point accuracy at 36.8 percent.

The Knicks always have been above average defensively under Tom Thibodeau, who is well-respected in the NBA for his defensive acumen. The Knicks ranked 10th during the regular season defensively.

The Celtics restored some sanity to the NBA playoffs with their road blowout victory against the Knicks on Saturday. Now I'm expecting the same from the Thunder against the Nuggets in the Western Conference.

Denver leads this series, 2-1. But Oklahoma City is the superior team. The Thunder have led 82 percent of the time during this series. Not only are the Thunder a top-notch scoring team with better athletes and a deeper bench than Denver, but they are far better defensively than the Nuggets.

Oklahoma City has held Nikola Jokic to 14-of-41 shooting (34 percent) from the floor and forced him to commit 14 turnovers during the past two games. 

Credit to the Nuggets for managing a series lead despite being more banged-up than Oklahoma City and having an interim coach. But a return to normalcy is set to take place Sunday in Denver. 

The Thunder are an ascending team. They were the best during the regular season - and nothing has changed my mind that they still aren't the best. A Thunder blowout would not surprise me. It happened two games ago when Oklahoma City whipped Denver by a whopping 43 points.

Denver suffered a 34-point blowout loss to the Clippers in their opening series round, which went a grueling seven games. The Nuggets suffered two blowout losses - by 26 and 45 points - to the Timberwolves in the playoffs last season. The Timberwolves eliminated the Nuggets in that series last year. The Thunder are better than that Timberwolves team.

What are the chances of the Celtics blowing two 20-point leads at home?

What are the chances of the Celtics missing 75 of 100 3-point shots in those games?

What are the chances of Jayson Tatum missing 30 of 42 shots in those games?

I can't begin to calculate the odds of all that happening. I just know no NBA team had lost consecutive home playoff games after being up by 20 points in each game. Until now.

The Knicks are riding a lot of house money as they come home to what's going to be a raucous and crazy Madison Square Garden. But, know this, defending world champion Boston is and remains the superior team.

The Celtics certainly aren't going to lack incentive and focus. They shot 36.8 percent from 3-point range during the season, 10th-best in the league. Tatum made 45.2 percent of his shots during the season, not the 29 percent he's shooting during this series.

Boston had a better road record than a home mark going 33-8. The Celtics have a deeper bench, are healthy and have more star power.

I don't believe it's a leap of faith for Boston to show a strong positive regression in this Game 3.

Stung by the Nuggets stealing Game 1, the Thunder buried Denver, 149-106, in Game 2 of their series this past Wednesday. 
I'm going against the zig-zag theory here and backing the Thunder to soundly defeat Denver again. 

It's not a fluke that Oklahoma City was 18 games better than Denver during the regular season. The Thunder are deeper and superior defensively. Oklahoma City also is faster. The Thunder averaged 120.5 points a game. Denver, which relies on its offense, averaged two more points per game than Oklahoma City, but gave up 11 points more per game than the Thunder. 

Denver is heavily reliant on Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. The Thunder has the antidote for Murray in defensive whiz Lu Dort. Oklahoma City figured out the right strategy to bottle up Jokic in its 43-point Game 2 victory - swarming him while playing pressure defense the entire time without a letup. The Thunder have the youth and depth to do this. Oh, yes, the Thunder have their own legitimate league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Thunder have covered 22 of the last 30 times they've been favored. That's 73 percent. The Thunder are a level higher than Denver and they are proven point spread winners. A change of venue isn't going to change that except to lower the point spread making the bar easier for the Thunder to cover another game.

Certainly Golden State deserves a lot of credit for its upset of the Timberwolves in Game 1 of this series two days ago. But the Timberwolves sure came out rusty after a five-day layoff following their first-round series win against the Lakers. 

Now the Warriors are looking at a highly-motivated Timberwolves squad that doesn't want to be trailing 2-0 heading to Golden State if they were to lose this game. The Warriors also are temporarily looking at life without Stephen Curry. He's out with a hamstring injury. 

Minnesota shot 17 percent from 3-point range against the Warriors on Tuesday hitting on just 5-of-29 from beyond the arc. The Timberwolves ranked fourth in the NBA in 3-point percentage during the regular season at 37.7 percent.

Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler showed Sunday that you can never fully count the Warriors out. But the Warriors aren't the better team against the Timberwolves and they are at a severe situational disadvantage.

Minnesota has arguably emerged as a top-five team during the past 5 1/2 months. Anthony Edwards gives the Timberwolves their own superstar.

Golden State had to dig deep - physically and mentally - to upset the Rockets on the road in Sunday's Game 7. The Warriors also got an unlikely 33 points from Buddy Hield, who made a staggering 9 of 11 3-point shots and missed only three of 15 field goal attempts.

People were ripping the Lakers for losing their first-round series to the Timberwolves. That outcome wasn't surprising, though. Minnesota is the superior team.

Now the Timberwolves are in a great spot having been idle since eliminating LA last Wednesday.

Situation matters when it comes to the NBA. And this one sets up great for Oklahoma City.

The Thunder last played nine days ago after sweeping the Grizzlies. Superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander didn't even play up to his lofty standards during the series yet Oklahoma City still won the series, 4-0.

Denver has gotten exactly one day of rest after getting past the Clippers in a grueling seven-game series that ended Saturday night.

The Thunder have the best record in the NBA at 72-14 counting the playoffs. They had the best point spread record during the regular season, too, at 55-23-4 for a phenomenal 71 percent. Oklahoma City is home and has a huge situational edge.

That spells a double-digit victory in my book.

Playoff savvy and one-time greatness can only get you so far. The Warriors have reached the end of the line. I don't see them beating the Rockets in Houston in this Game 7 playoff matchup.

Golden State went all in to eliminate the Rockets at home in Game 6 two days ago. The Warriors couldn't do it, done in by the Rockets' superior rebounding and their own exhaustion.

Houston is the quicker, taller, hungrier team and now they have confidence. The Rockets have won their last two home games against the Warriors by 15 points each.

The Warriors are running on fumes - ground down both physically and mentally. Stephen Curry is 37. Jimmy Butler is close to turning 36. Draymond Green is 35 and trying to battle Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams, who are both 6-foot-11, with his 6-foot-6 frame.

Green is one of the dirtiest players in NBA history. He won't be getting away with anything in Houston. Curry and Butler are at less than 100 percent capacity.

Any momentum the Warriors had from earlier in the series has been lost.

The Warriors would very much like to close the Rockets out at home today leading 3-2 in this best-of-seven series rather than go to a seventh and deciding game, which would be in Houston on Sunday. 

But what the Warriors would like and can do are two different things. 

Yes, Golden State has far more playoff experience than Houston. The Warriors also have two proven superstars, Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. The Rockets can't match the reliability of those two.

Houston, though, has edges the Warriors lack. The Rockets have more overall talent, are younger and the superior rebounding and defensive team. Houston has had a fourth quarter lead in each of its playoff losses to Golden State.

Golden State is ahead in the series because of its veteran savvy. The Rockets, however, have chipped away at that as this series has gone deeper. The Rockets have their confidence up after building a 29-point third quarter lead this past Wednesday in coasting to a 131-116 Game 5 victory. 
The Rockets picked up the pace and applied relentless defensive pressure. Those tactics worked. 

"It feels like we're getting more consistent recognition of what they're doing throughout the series as it goes on," Rockets coach Ime Udoka said following his team's Game 5 victory. "Trying to wear them down and taking away certain actions, and we did that. Try to make them make plays and not run their plays. If they have to beat us one-one, we feel that's to our advantage."

Houston has its confidence and blueprint. The Rockets aren't intimidated anymore being in the playoffs with the Warriors. They are a rising power. Maybe it's not their time quite yet, but I'll take this many points to find that out.

Forget the Nuggets' 131-115 Game 5 home win against the Clippers from two nights ago. Those 246 combined points were an outlier. The combined total of the other four games in the series during regulation is 200.7 points.

The Clippers are the fourth-ranked defensive team in the NBA and top-rated defensive rebounding team. They are going to come in with a maximum defensive effort after being embarrassed in that last game.

Denver has held the Clippers to an average of 100.6 points in regulation during three of the five games in the series.

The Under has cashed 60 percent the past 100 times during Game 6 and 7 NBA playoff games.

So expect plenty of hard-nosed playoff defense - not offense - in this one.

The Rockets' young talent is obvious. But playoff inexperience, Golden State's veteran savvy and missed free throws have resulted in the Rockets being down 3-1 in their first-round playoff series against Golden State.

Now the Warriors look to close out the series with a road victory today. I don't see them doing it. Not at Houston.

The Rockets' one win in this series came at home in blowout fashion, 109-94, in Game 2. Houston is 30-12 at home. 

The Warriors have proven superstars with Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler. But Golden State also has far more age. This is their third game in five days and Houston is desperate. The oddsmaker made the Rockets the favorite and I fully agree. 

This is what Curry had to say about this game, "You understand closeout games are extremely difficult because of desperation from the other side. Try to do it on the road is even more challenging." 
The Rockets have the talent to match Golden State with Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Tari Eason. Houston has had fourth-quarter leads in its losses. The Rockets are the superior rebounding team. Their confidence and poise will be much better at home.

The Cavaliers have already advanced. The Knicks can do that, too, if they beat the underdog Pistons at home tonight. The Celtics would meet the Knicks in Round 2 of the Eastern Conference playoffs. So Boston can't waste any more time with Orlando in its first-round series.

The Magic managed to sneak a home win in Game 3 after soundly losing the first two games in Boston. The Magic gave it their best shot at home in Game 4 before surrendering 16 of the final 23 points in a 107-98 loss this past Sunday. That was a deflating loss for the Magic.

Orlando is a two-man team of Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner. The Magic have tried to overcome their weak depth and lack of other scoring options by playing extremely physical. That's not going to work back in Boston.

The Celtics' stars are better than Orlando's stars and Boston's bench is far superior. Boston is 30-13 at TD Garden Center. The Celtics don't want to screw around anymore with the Magic. I look for the Celtics to be focused and to play with great intensity. That should ensure an easy double-digit victory.

With or without Jimmy Butler, I like the Rockets to cover - if not beat the Warriors straight-up - in tonight's Game 4 matchup of their Western Conference playoff series. 

The Warriors pulled out a gutty home win without Butler this past Saturday. Golden State came back from a 13-point deficit. 

I don't believe the Warriors can do that again if Butler remains out due to a pelvic injury suffered in Game 2 this past Wednesday. But even if Butler plays, the Warriors may get caught subconsciously relaxing. 

The Rockets are a better defensive team than Golden State. They gave up the fifth-fewest points and ranked No. 2 in defensive rebounding. The Rockets were slow in rotating and didn't play with the defensive intensity during Saturday's loss that they did when they defeated the Warriors in Game 2. I see the Rockets taking their defense up a notch in this game.

Detroit's J.B. Bickerstaff is the NBA Coach of the Year in my book. I trust Bickerstaff to make the right adjustments in this Game 4 of the Pistons-Knicks playoff series.

After splitting the first two games in New York, the Pistons lost Game 3 at home, 118-116, this past Thursday. Two big keys for the Knicks in their victory was Karl-Anthony Towns taking advantage of Detroit missing center Isaiah Stewart and OG Anunoby's defense on Cade Cunningham. Towns scored 31 points and Anunoby held Cunningham to 4-of-14 shooting from the floor.

Still, the Knicks only won by a basket. The Pistons shouldn't be so nervous starting the game. That was their first home playoff game since 2019. Detroit outscored New York by 11 points in the second half, but couldn't quite overcome a 66-53 halftime deficit.

Stewart may be able to play Sunday. But even if he doesn't, I'm confident in Bickerstaff to make adjustments to slow down Towns and to get Cunningham, an emerging superstar, better opportunities to score, or pass to an open teammate.

With or without Jimmy Butler, I like the Warriors to prevail at home against the youthful Rockets. Houston is taking to the road after going 1-1 on its homecourt during the first two games of this Western Conference series. 

Golden State has the savvy and playoff experience to make the proper adjustments after the Rockets increased their defensive intensity to win Game 2, 109-94, this past Wednesday.

Butler suffered a bruised back in that game. He played less than eight minutes before he suffered the injury. I believe Butler will play here, although he's listed as questionable. If you don't count that Wednesday game, the Warriors are 24-7 since Butler joined them. 

Jonathan Kuminga got the rust off replacing Butler. Kuminga played 26 minutes after Butler left, making four-of-12 shots from the floor. Kuminga was the Warriors' fourth-leading scorer during the regular season averaging 15.3 points, but had sat out the previous two games.

After losing by 17 and nine points at Boston during the first two games of this series, I see Orlando bouncing back to at least get the cover - if not win outright - at home.

I'm not expecting a doubtful Jayson Tatum to play. Nor would I be surprised if Jaylen Brown sat out, too, or at least had reduced minutes because of a sore knee. There's also a chance the Celtics could be minus Jrue Holiday, who is dealing with a hamstring strain.

The Magic play the Celtics with much more confidence at home having defeated them in both of their regular-season home games.

Orlando came back from an 0-2 playoff deficit against the Cavaliers last year to win all three of its playoff home games.

Let me get this right. The first game of this series is decided in overtime with the Nuggets winning. The Clippers hold on in Game 2 withstanding two Denver missed 3-pointers in the final seconds to win by three points. 

Denver was favored in both of those games. But now that the scene shifts to LA the Clippers are this big of a favorite? Huh? Not buying it. These teams are extremely even. So give me the Nuggets in this point spread range.

Kawhi Leonard had one of his games for the ages this past Monday dropping 39 points on 15-of-19 shooting from the floor. Leonard is that good. But he's not the best player on the court. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is. Jokic is averaging 27.5 points, 11 assists and 10 rebounds in the series. He's not the only Denver player having a big series. Jamal Murray is averaging 22 points, 6.5 assists and 6.0 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is averaging 19.5 points and seven rebounds. 

The Nuggets dominated the boards against the Clippers in Game 2, out-rebounding them by 18. The Nuggets, though, committed nine more turnovers and shot only 63.6 percent from the free throw line when their season average is 77 percent.

I had the Warriors to beat the Rockets in Game 1 - and felt lucky to win even though the final score was Golden State, 95-85. 

The Rockets grabbed 16 more offensive rebounds than the Warriors and had numerous missed open 3-point shots. 

The Rockets' youth showed in that first playoff game. Still, the Rockets could have cut the Warriors' lead to two points with less than five minutes left if Stephen Curry didn't hit a long 3-point desperation heave that took the pressure off by putting the Warriors ahead by seven points. 

Golden State shot 47.4 percent from the floor. The Rockets got off 11 more shots than the Warriors, but made only 39.1 percent of their field goal attempts. 

Expect an all-out effort by the Rockets knowing they can't go down 0-2 in the series at home. Their young, but highly-talented players, should be more comfortable and less rusty in Game 2. Houston also should make a much higher percentage of its offensive rebounds and open shots resulting from kick-outs. 

I see that happening.

The Bucks picked a bad time to get cold and play flat this past Saturday in a 117-98 Game 1 playoff loss to the Pacers.

Milwaukee was 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS this month before that game. But aside from Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were terrible against Indiana.

Not only will the Bucks be highly motivated with their pride wounded, but there's a strong possibility they get back their second-best player, Damian Lillard. He's been out since March 18. Lillard is likely to be on a minutes count if he does play, but he should provide a needed spark after getting into a chippy exchange of words with some of the Pacers from Milwaukee's bench.

Antetokounmpo said this after the 19-point Game 1 defeat: "It wasn't us. I think we're gonna be better. In the second half we were better. They only scored 50 points in the second half. We were way better in the second half. Hopefully we can carry over to the next game and do what we do, guys feel more comfortable out there."

The Bucks led the NBA in 3-point shooting at 38.7 percent. Yet they shot only 24.3 percent from beyond the arc in Game 1 making just 9-of-37 shots. The Pacers rank 23rd in defensive field goal percentage.

The Clippers committed a whopping 20 turnovers, seven by Kawhi Leonard, against the Nuggets in Game 1 on Saturday. That led to a 20-point edge by the Nuggets in points off turnovers.

Yet it took overtime for the Nuggets to defeat the Clippers, 112-110. 

Denver is not some great defensive team. The Nuggets ranked 25th in scoring defense. The Clippers, by contrast, ranked fourth defensively giving up an average of nine fewer points per game than the Nuggets. 

LA entered Saturday's Game 1 as the hottest team going 18-3 with an eight-game winning streak. The Clippers picked a bad time to go flat. Expect them to play much better, especially the prideful Leonard, in this Game 2 matchup. 

The Clippers have responded with wins and covers the past four times following a loss defeating the Magic by nine points on the road, the Knicks by 13 on the road, the Heat by 15 on the road and the Pistons by eight at home during this time span. 

The Nuggets do not have a good recent history when playing at home in Game 2 of a playoff series going 0-4 ATS the past four times in that instance the previous two seasons.

The Rockets were four games better than the Warriors during the regular season. Houston is the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Golden State is seventh-seeded.

Pay no attention to that, though.

It's misleading and doesn't mean anything now.

The Rockets have been idle for a week. They are rusty and lack Golden State's playoff experience having last made the postseason in 2020, the Covid year when the playoffs were held in the bubble in Orlando.

The Warriors played at a 61-win pace during their last 31 games going 23-8 transformed by a resurgent Jimmy Butler. They defeated the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in a play-in game to reach this point.

Houston coasted into the playoffs, losing its last three games by an average of 21 points. The Rockets are young lacking the proven stars the Warriors have with Stephen Curry, Butler and Draymond Green.

It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to reach full intensity having been idle since last Sunday and not caring during the last week of the regular season. The Warriors won't have that problem. They'll be ready.

This could be the most evenly matched first round series of all of them. I believe the Lakers are overrated here because of who they are and their star power of Luka Doncic and LeBron James.

Minnesota, however, is the taller and deeper team. The Timberwolves also went 17-4 in their last 21 games. The Lakers were 18-10 during their last 28 games with Doncic in the lineup. LA lost to the Hornets, Jazz, Nets and Bulls twice during that stretch.

Doncic's numbers haven't matched the great statistics he was putting up with the Mavericks. He and James look better on paper with just a plus two rating when both are on the court together.

Anthony Edwards actually could be the best offensive player on the court. The Lakers don't have any strong defensive wings to defend against Edwards either. If they load up on Edwards that frees up Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert.

This is too many points for the Warriors to be giving up considering Memphis has a size advantage, JaMorant is playing his best basketball of the season and there is not a huge talent disparity between the two teams. 

The Grizzlies have displayed defensive improvement under interim coach Tuomas Iisalo ranking sixth in defensive efficiency during their last six games. Discounting a loss to the Timberwolves from this past Thursday, the Grizzlies have given up an average of 105 points during their last five games. 

Morant is averaging 30.2 points and shooting 41.3 percent from 3-point range this month. 

Memphis also has the size to hurt Golden State in the frontcourt with an improved Zach Edey joining elite defender Jaren Jackson Jr. The 7-foot-4 Edey is averaging 15.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks this month. 

The Grizzlies rank No. 2 in the NBA in drawing fouls. The Warriors rank 19th in that category.

It seemed to take forever. But we've reached the postseason in the NBA. That means the defensive concentration and intensity goes way up.

Stephen Curry and Ja Morant are the poster childs for this play-in game. Yet the game also features two of the premier defensive players of the league in Draymond Green and Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies also have been giving more minutes this month to 7-foot-4 rookie center Zach Edey. That's a plus for the Under.

The Grizzlies have surrendered an average of 105 points in their last five games if you don't include their game against the Timberwolves.

Golden State has a top-eight defense. The Warriors have held their last six opponents to an average of 102.6 points.

Not many NBA games today have much meaning with playoff seeding determined. This matchup is an exception. That should ensure a hard-fought, defensive-minded battle. Both the Clippers and Warriors are in excellent defensive form ranking in the top-three in defensive efficiency during the past eight games.

The previous three games in this series this season have averaged only 203.6 points.

Stephen Curry has a right thumb sprain and is questionable for the game.

This is the Trail Blazers' final road game and first matchup since finding out they were eliminated from the postseason. Portland showed much improvement, but I question its motivation for this now meaningless game.

Utah is dreadful. But the Jazz should have motivation to halt a nine-game losing streak. This is their best chance to stop their losing skid since they host the Thunder and play at Minnesota for their final two games.

Portland concludes its season with home games against the Warriors and Lakers. Those are matchups the Trail Blazers are likely to care more about.

The Jazz are 1-2 against Portland this season. Both of Utah's losses to Portland came by two points. The Jazz have outscored Portland by 38 points in their three games.

A far superior defense. Rest advantage. Playing at home. Much better current form. 

All of those reasons are why I like Orlando to cover this number against Atlanta.

Let's start with defense. The Magic give up the fewest points per game at 105.6. The Hawks, by contrast, rank 27th defensively allowing an average of 119.8 points per game.

Orlando has been idle since Thursday. The Magic are 6-2 in their past eight games. Their defense has been even better than its season number. The Magic have surrendered an average of only 99 points during their last six games. 

The Hawks are 2-5 in their past seven games. Atlanta has permitted more than 119 points in each of its last seven games. During their past seven games, the Hawks have allowed an average of 124.1 points.

As much as I like and respect Florida, Houston's tenacity and elite defense has me going with the Cougars. 

Houston held the Blue Devils to 40 percent shooting from the floor and only one field goal during the final 10:30 of its dramatic Final Four, 70-67, comeback victory this past Saturday.  Duke averaged 82.7 points and 48.8 percent shooting during the season. Both top-18 marks. 

 Duke averaged 91.7 points during its previous four games before meeting Houston. To be honest, I thought Duke was going to win the NCAA Tournament. 

The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Their offense can look a little disjointed at times, but they ranked No. 2 in the country in 3-point percentage. The Cougars also are a strong rebounding team. They have the Big 12 defensive player of the year, Joseph Tugler. He's 6-foot-8 with a wingspan of a 7-foot-6 player. Tugler has 77 blocks, including four against Duke.

Kelvin Sampson is a Hall of Fame coach, a tremendous defensive tactician. 

Nothing against Florida, but I'm going with Houston since I give the Cougars checkmarks in defense, coaching and 3-point shooting. I can't see them not winning the title after their unbelievable semifinal victory against Duke.

NBA Bonus Play

Pistons minus 7 1/2 hosting Kings

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Behold the largest Eastern Conference point spread of the season. Sure the Celtics probably could name their score here at home against the Wizards, but I don't see them being very motivated. Boston also doesn't have a good track record in this point spread range, failing to cover 13 of the last 18 times (28 percent) as double-digit favorites.  

The Celtics took their frustrations out on Phoenix after their nine-game win streak was halted by the Heat this past Wednesday. Boston buried the Suns, 123-103, in its following game this past Friday.

Boston knows it's locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference being eight games of the third-place Knicks, but trailing first-place Cleveland by five games with five regular season games left. The Celitcs travel to Madison Square Garden to meet the Knicks on Tuesday in their next game.

Only twice in their last 28 games, have the Wizards lost by more than 20 points. Washington has many young players. They'll want to show their best against the defending world champions.

Checkmark to Houston on defense. Duke, however, is the more complete team, has a size advantage and superstar Cooper Flagg. Those are reasons enough to justify laying these points with the Blue Devils.

Duke has a size advantage in the backcourt - pivotal because Houston relies on its perimeter shooting - and has 7-footer Khaman Maluach inside to dominate both ends in the paint.

The Blue Devils' size was a key in holding Alabama to 65 points in an 85-65 win during their last game. Alabama was the No. 1 scoring team in the nation averaging 91.1 points. Houston averages 17 points fewer per game than Alabama.

I don't see the Cougars being able to keep up with Duke in the scoring column. Not only do the Blue Devils have the magnificent Flagg, but also Tyrese Proctor and a strong bench. Unlike Houston, Duke is equally proficient scoring both inside and outside.

Improved defense is one of the reasons why the Pistons are going to make the playoffs for the first-time since 2019. So is the emergence of Cade Cunningham into a superstar. Cunningham ranks eighth in the NBA in scoring with a 25.7 point average.

Cunningham, though, has missed the past five games with a calf injury. He's questionable here. Even if he plays, you wonder about him having a rust factor. Detroit has scored 103 and 104 points in its past two games.

Toronto probably will be without perhaps its top all-around offensive player as Scottie Barnes is doubtful with a right hand injury. The injury really hampered Barnes' shooting and performance in a 112-103 home loss to the Trail Blazers last night.

The Raptors have been below-the-radar defensively. If you discount them giving up 127 points to the Bulls two games ago, the Raptors have held their five opponents to an average of 101.6 points. Toronto ranks fourth in the NBA in 3-point defense.

The Timberwolves' dramatic, 140-139, last-second two overtime road victory against the Nuggets this past Tuesday night was one of the best games of the NBA season.

Denver followed up that game with an upset home loss to the Spurs last night, although Nikola Jokic sat out.

While I don't expect the Nets to beat Minnesota straight-up, I do believe this is an excellent ambush spot for Brooklyn to throw a scare into the Timberwolves, who have to be feeling great about themselves pulling out a win against the Nuggets. Minnesota defeated Denver when Russell Westbrook missed a layup near the end of the game and Nickeil Alexander-Walker was fouled with one-tenth of a second left. Alexander-Walker's two free throws accounted for Minnesota's final victory margin.

That win put the Timberwolves into a tie for the sixth and final guaranteed playoff spot in the West. You can't fault the Timberwolves if they suffer a letdown here facing the Nets, who are 26 games below .500.

Still, this is a second straight road game and a time change for the Timberwolves. The Nets are pesky. They actually have been quite good point spread-wise covering nine of their last 13 games. The Nets also are the more rested team having been idle since Monday.

When is enough, enough? The answer is right here in this game. The Timberwolves have defeated the Nuggets five straight times, including all three this season.

I don't see this as a matchup thing. The Nuggets should be finally aroused since the Timberwolves have been taking this series more seriously. Not now, though. Denver also is trying to hold off the Lakers for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Denver should be healthy with Jamal Murray expected to play. The Nuggets are well rested. They last played this past Friday at home, blowing out the Jazz.

Minnesota, however, is in action for the third time in five days. The Timberwolves are off a near-brawl against the Pistons this past Sunday. This is only the Timberwolves' second road game since March 14. They were blown out by the Pacers in their previous road game eight days ago.

Don't go against North Texas when it comes to the NIT. The Mean Green won the 2023 NIT championship and they've reached the semifinals here against Cal-Irvine.

Cal-Irvine is the superior offensive team. But the Anteaters are going to have problems with North Texas. It's not just that the Mean Green surrender the third-fewest points in the nation and rank in the top-10 in defensive rebounding.

It's that North Texas also plays at the slowest pace. That's going to bother Cal-Irvine. The Anteaters can't match the Mean Green on the boards and their ball-handlers are more sloppy.

This is one of those rare, if any, times I'm going against Oklahoma City being fully aware the Thunder are riding a nine-game win streak and have the best point spread mark in the NBA. 

Actually, it's not so much I'm going against the Thunder, but rather taking value on the Bulls, who are below-the-surface. 

Chicago is 9-3 in its last dozen games, 10-2 ATS. If it weren't for a one-point loss to the Mavericks, the Bulls would be on a five-game win streak. 

This is a good test for the Bulls to find out just how competitive they are. I'll back them, given how well they have been playing, at what I see is an inflated point spread.

Ready or not, we have another college basketball tournament going. It's the inaugural College Basketball Crown being held in Las Vegas. I'm getting involved in this early round game today taking Utah to beat Butler.

I have Utah as the higher power rated team. The Utes hold a defensive and rebounding edge. They also play in the stronger Big 12 Conference.

Butler opened 7-1, but has gone 7-18 during its last 25 games.

Have to go defense in this one. Both Michigan State and Auburn rank in the top-10 in defensive efficiency. The Under has cashed in 10 of Michigan State's last dozen games. The Tigers have gone Under in four of their five postseason games.

Michigan forced 15 Auburn turnovers against the Tigers this past Friday. Michigan State has much better defensive guards than the Wolverines. The Spartans have the front-court depth, too, to keep Auburn star big man Johni Broome from dominating. Broome is the only Auburn player who averages more than 13 points. The Tigers don't have any outstanding scorers if Broome is neutralized. Michigan State's Tom Izzo is an expert at making defensive adjustments.

The Spartans will have to earn their points, too. The Tigers rank in the top-five in blocked shot percentage and are seventh in 3-point defense.

Reportedly the Grizzlies surprisingly fired coach Taylor Jenkins because he had lost the locker room. Regardless, I expect the Grizzlies to be highly-motivated at home in their first game since naming Tuomas Iisalo as their interim coach. 

The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode and draw the Lakers playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and in their fourth straight road contest. 

Memphis 25-11 (69 percent) at home this season. The Lakers are four games below .500 when playing on the road. 

Ja Morant has missed the past six games due to a hamstring injury. He's questionable here. I like the Grizzlies to beat the Lakers regardless if Morant plays. If he does suit up, it's just a bonus.

Michigan State has reached the Sweet 16, but the Spartans haven't played their best. They are due for a big game. I see that coming here against a Mississippi team they match up well to.

Mississippi has pulled off upset victories against Iowa State and North Carolina to reach this point. The Rebels are extremely well-coached like the Spartans are. Mississippi is not a strong rebounding team, though, ranking 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC. Michigan State, by contrast, was the No. 2 rebounding team in the Big Ten and eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding.

The Rebels hit 49 percent of their 3-point shots against the Tar Heels and Cyclones going an amazing 19-for-39. That is uncharacteristic of Mississippi. The Rebels are not nearly that good of a 3-point shooting team. They ranked 173rd in 3-point accuracy during the regular season hitting 34.1 percent. Michigan State has the toughest 3-point defense in the country ranking No. 1.

The combination of Michigan State's 3-point defense and rebounding should be enough to derail the Rebels and allow the Spartans to cover this point spread margin. Michigan State is due for a better performance while the Rebels are overdue to cool off from beyond the arc, especially playing this opponent.

The Heat have been a disappointment this season, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Eric Spoelstra is a top defensive coach. The Heat have slowed their pace since dealing disgruntled Jimmy Butler and are playing their best defense of the season.

The Heat just held the Warriors to 86 points two days ago. Miami is giving up only 97.6 points during its past three games. Star defensive player Bam Adebayo helped guard Butler during that win against the Warriors. Butler managed just 11 points in the game. This doesn't bode well for the Hawks' main man, Trae Young.

Atlanta has its own defensive ace in Dyson Daniels, who leads the NBA in steals. The Hawks are more about offense than defense, but they don't figure to push tempo playing for the fourth time in six days.

Alabama-Birmingham is an underdog worth backing. Not only do the Blazers play in the stronger American Athletic Conference compared to Cal-Irvine, which is in the weak Big West Conference, but Alabama-Birmingham has proved itself on the road.

The Blazers have scored road upset victories against Santa Clara as a 7-point 'dog and against St. Joe's getting six points. Cal Irvine wasn't impressive in beating but failing to cover against Jacksonville State at home, 66-61, in its last NIT game. 

UAB also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. He averages 17.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 blocked shots. He owns the school record for double-doubles. 

The Blazers play fast and are explosive. They are 16th in the nation in scoring at 82.6 points per game. Being on the road hasn't changed this as the Blazers rank 15th in the country in points per possession when playing away. 

Cal Irvine averages nearly seven points fewer per game than UAB, but features the superior defense. Some of that, though, comes from playing in the smallish Big West. UAB has been playing better defense late in winning and covering four of their five postseason games. 

UAB holds a rebounding edge. The Blazers rank in the top-20 in offensive rebounding. Going against UAB is going to prove a real contrast for Cal Irvine. 

The Blazers have enough going to pull the outright upset.

The Lakers are 3-7 in their last 10 games and have lost three in a row. Indiana has won five in a row and is at home. Yet it's the Lakers who opened the favorite.

The oddsmaker has it right here.

The Lakers opened their current road trip with a 118-106 loss to the Magic two days ago. The positive for the Lakers was that both Luka Doncic and LeBron James played and looked good. The Lakers need to win this game. I trust Doncic and James to help them achieve that win as they try to cling to a top four-seed in the Western Conference.

The Pacers' win streak is bogus except for their last game, which was a 119-103 home win against Minnesota this past Monday. The Pacers began their victory streak with an overtime road win against the Timberwolves. That was followed by only a four-point home win against the decimated Mavericks and a pair of home wins and non-covers against the Nets with one occurring in overtime. The Nets are 3-15 in their last 18 games.

Going in, I liked Cleveland State to win the CBI Tournament and so far nothing that has gone on has changed my mind. The Vikings rolled past Queens University in their tournament opener yesterday breezing to an 88-73 win as a 4 1/2-point favorite.

I don't see today's opponent, Florida Gulf Coast, being any better. The Eagles barely got past Army, 68-65, as a 10 1/2-point favorite in their tournament opener yesterday. That was the fourth time the Eagles failed to cover in their last five games.

Cleveland State is the better scoring team and much superior to Florida Gulf Coast defensively.

It has been a brutal March for the Heat. They are 2-11 this month. Their only victories were against the horrendous Wizards and Hornets.

Golden State has won 16 of 20 games since acquiring Jimmy Butler from the Heat. The Warriors should be highly motivated to win big here coming off an upset loss to the Hawks three days ago and knowing how important this game is for Butler playing against his former team.

The Warriors have won by an average of 14.2 points the past four times following a loss.

It's an added bonus if Stephen Curry plays. He's questionable due to a bruised pelvic.

Washington is 15-55 after losing by 19 points to the Knicks on the road this past Saturday. 

Yet Washington opened as the favorite because Toronto is 24-47 and looked terrible in losing, 123-89, to the Spurs on Sunday. The Raptors were playing at home for the first time since returning from a four-game West Coast trip. 

"...We have to be much better, and I expect us to be much better tomorrow (Monday)," Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic said following his team's no-show against the Spurs.

The Raptors are better than Washington and should be motivated. Only the Thunder and Cavaliers have a better point spread record than the Raptors, who are 42-28-1 for 60 percent.

This is a question of trust. The Mountain West Conference has had a dismal point spread record in the NCAA Tournament, while the Big Ten Conference is proving how strong it really is going 10-2 SU and ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State with Tom Izzo is one of those Big Ten teams I trust the most. I believe the Spartans match up well to New Mexico. The Spartans have tournament experience having reached at least the second round in 17 of the last 20 NCAA Tournament. 

The Spartans have the superior depth and defense, ranking No. 2 in the country in 3-point defense, and hold a backcourt edge with the necessary defenders to bother Donovan Dent, who the Aggies heavily rely upon.

Michigan State got its kinks out rolling past Bryant, 87-62, two days ago. I'm looking for a better performance from the Spartans. 

New Mexico defeated a disappointing and unimpressive Marquette in the first round. The Lobos don't have the signature victories Michigan State has. I don't believe they can stay within single digits of the Spartans.

Of the many great teams in the SEC this season, Mississippi is one of the least flashy. The Rebels don't get talked about much. Certainly not like Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. 

But this doesn't mean the Rebels aren't dangerous. They have the right mix and coaching to pull the upset against Iowa State. 

Mississippi is a semi-rarity these days for an NCAA Tournament team - a veteran starting lineup consisting of four seniors and a junior. They have leadership, poise and an elite coach in Chris Beard. 

I also believe Iowa State's coach, T.J. Otzelberger, is elite. The Cyclones, though, are the ones laying mid-range points and missing a key injured player in guard Keshon Gibert. He is Iowa State's second-leading scorer at 13.4 points a game and is the team leader in assists. 

The Cyclones were able to easily triumph against Lipscomb in their first-round NCAA Tournament game. Mississippi has better athletes than Lipscomb and can exploit Gilbert's absence with a more swarming defensive style. 

Mississippi's strength is forcing turnovers while ranking in the top-15 in committing the fewest turnovers. That's a winning combination against this opponent.

Only two teams in the nation surrendered fewer points per game than North Texas. The Mean Green haven't given up more than 66 points in a game during their last 15 games.

North Texas, however, ranks 312th in scoring at 68.5 points a game. Arkansas State can handle the Mean Green defensively. The Red Wolves rank among the top 17 teams in the country in both defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

However, facing North Texas' strong defense is going to be cultural shock for the Red Wolves, who are used to a much different tempo playing in the Sun Belt Conference.

Congrats to the Spurs for winning consecutive home games against the Knicks this past Wednesday and against the depleted 76ers two days ago. I don't see the Spurs having their full intensity as they take to the road for only the second time in two weeks to face Toronto. 

The Raptors have lost three more games than San Antonio, but have a far better point spread record. Toronto, in fact, is tied with the Cavaliers behind Oklahoma City for the second-best ATS mark at 42-27-1. 

The Spurs have failed to cover in eight of their last nine away contests. This marks San Antonio's sixth game in 10 days. Remember, too, the Spurs are minus their two best players - Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox.

Toronto concluded a 1-3, four-game West Coast trip with a narrow, 117-114, loss to the hot Warriors. That was this past Thursday. So the Raptors have been idle the past two full days. They are well-coached, healthier than San Antonio and have good, young chemistry. They should be up for this very winnable home game. The Raptors also have covered five of their last six home games. 

I'm going to lay short juice and play the Raptors on the money line asking them to merely beat the Spurs at home.

This Wisconsin team is like no other in school history. The Badgers used to be all about defense. Greg Gard has broken from that tradition. The Badgers play fast and are not shy about throwing up 3-pointers. Wisconsin ranks 35th in scoring, averaging more than 80 points a game. The Badgers also are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the country. 

BYU is a willing partner to keep a fast, high-scoring pace. The Cougars rank 26th in scoring at 81.4 points a game. They rate 19th in field goal percentage and 39th in free throw accuracy. 

Both teams are below average in 3-point defense.

Playing at Utah isn't easy even when there is motivation. As bad as the 16-54 Jazz are, they are tough at home covering 10 of their last 15 games as hosts.

The teams just met 11 days ago and Boston only won by six points at home. The Jazz were playing without rest, too, having played the night before.  

Boston has an extremely deep roster. The Celtics are still strong even when resting star players, which could be the case here with the team's upcoming schedule of playing the Trail Blazers in Portland on Sunday and Kings in Sacramento on Monday.

So the backdoor could swing open for the Jazz if Boston does build an early huge advantage. Realistically, the Celtics are locked into the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. That might be why Boston has only won by this large of a margin once in its last 11 games.

It's been an up-and-down season for Connecticut. But if the two-time defending champion Huskies are going to get eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, it's going to come from Florida not Oklahoma. 

The Huskies have won and covered their past 12 NCAA Tournament games. Look for that impressive streak to continue against the Sooners, who may be without center Sam Godwin. He's missed the last three games because of a knee injury.

Even with Godwin, the Sooners can't rebound with Connecticut. The Huskies hold a defensive and depth edge, too. 

Connecticut ranks 60th defensively and is the No. 2 defensive rebounding team. Oklahoma rates 269th defensively and is 324th in offensive rebounding. 

The Huskies are healthy, too, unlike the Sooners. 

Connecticut is the more well-rounded team with big edges on defense and on the boards. I'm not going against the Huskies against this opponent.

The Lakers are very tough at home and on a three-game winning streak. But this is a tough spot for LA. The oddsmaker knows this, making Milwaukee a road favorite.

The Bucks won't lack motivation after a flat, 104-93, road loss to the Stephen Curry-less Warriors two days ago. The Bucks had won 10 of 15 before that defeat. Giannis Antetokounmpo is coming off a rare poor performance.

The Lakers are not only fat and happy after beating the Nuggets, 120-108, last night at home, but carry a huge fatigue rating as this marks LA's sixth game in eight days.

LA is short-handed, too, with LeBron James out and Rui Hachimura questionable with a knee injury.

The teams just met a week ago and the Bucks sailed past the Lakers, 126-106, at home when the Lakers didn't have James.

The Bulls are a pesky team that usually can be counted on for a good effort. They are flying behind the point spread radar covering 11 of their last 14 games, including going 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.

Chicago is a dangerous opponent for the Kings in this spot. Sacramento is fat and happy having opened its homestand with victories against the Grizzlies on Monday and Cavaliers last night in an impressive, 123-119, win.

The Kings took down the mighty Cavaliers despite being without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Jake LaRavia. Sabonis remains out, while the other two are questionable.

Given the situation and the Bulls being acclimated to West Coast time after a 127-121 road loss to the Suns last night, I trust Chicago to keep this one tight.