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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-08-19||Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia||Top||77-85||Loss||-106||34 h 33 m||Show|
Texas Tech plus 1 1/2 vs. VirginiaGreat, great job by Chris Beard and Texas Tech reaching the NCAA Tournament title game. Virginia is here, too. The pressure is all on the Cavaliers - and they usually don't respond well to it. The Cavaliers were the first No. 1 seed in NCAA Tourney history to lose to a 16th seed last year. They trailed Gardner-Webb at halftime in their opening NCAA Tourney game this year. Virginia is darn lucky to even survive having nipped Oregon by four points, slipped past Purdue in overtime and received a couple of official's gifts in edging Auburn by one on Saturday winning in highly controversial fashion. Virginia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games and 11-0 ATS the past 11 times going against a foe that has a winning record. The Cavaliers for the first time are going to face an opponent that can match them - if not exceed them - defensively. The Red Raiders held Michigan State to its lowest point total of the season, something I'm not sure Virginia could have done.
|04-08-19||Texas Tech v. Virginia OVER 117.5||Top||77-85||Win||100||25 h 11 m||Show|
I understand these are the two best defensive teams in the country and that obviously the intensity is going to be at its highest level. But the oddsmaker and early marketplace activity is overreacting to this driving this total to this number. It's the lowest of the season for Texas Tech and second-lowest for Virginia. Texas Tech has been a decent scoring team. The Red Raiders are averaging 76.3 points during their past 13 games. The Cavaliers have reached at least 63 points in all but two of their last 13 games. The overtime also is more of a possibility given the close point spread. So is excessive fouling at the end with this being the championship game.
|04-06-19||Auburn v. Virginia -5||Top||62-63||Loss||-110||102 h 15 m||Show|
Auburn is really going to miss Chuma Okeke. He's the Tigers' leading rebounder, top defender and third-leading scorer. The Tigers have gotten away with his absence by their long-range hot shooting. That's not going to work against Virginia. Not only do the Cavaliers give up the fewest points per game in the nation, but they rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage, 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers haven't played up to their capabilities in the NCAA Tournament so far. I see them finally bringing their "A" game to the table here. The Cavaliers have covered 75 percent of their 20 non-home games this season. I trust them in this spot against this one-dimensional opponent missing its best player.
|04-02-19||Wichita State v. Lipscomb +1||Top||64-71||Win||100||16 h 16 m||Show|
Lipscomb lacks the name recoginition of Wichita State. But the Bisons are the better team. The Bisons had 14 road victories, most in the nation. So they are well-tested away from home. They are 21-7-1 ATS during their past 29 nonconference games. The Bisons have plenty of experience from last season's NCAA Tournament team. They are 19-3 in their last 22 games and rank in the Top 10 in scoring, scoring margin and assists. I respect Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall. But the Shockers are going to have problems matching up against senior guard Garrison Mathews, who can light things up from the perimeter like he did against North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of this NIT tournament scoring 44 points. Matthews has averaged at least 20 points in each of the past three seasons.
|04-01-19||DePaul v. South Florida -114||Top||61-63||Win||100||16 h 27 m||Show|
Note this is the College Basketball Invitational championship series. But it is the best two-of-three. South Florida needs to protect its home court. The Blue Devils will host South Florida on Wednesday. The Bulls are by far the better defensive team. DePaul is weak defensively and bad on the road. South Florida is ranked higher in Ken Pomeroy's ratings. The Bulls have surrendered just 57 points and 47 points, respectively, during their past two games in the tournament. South Florida is 17-5 at home. DePaul is 3-8 on the road and has failed to cover in its past four away matchups.
|03-30-19||Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4||Top||75-69||Loss||-109||19 h 13 m||Show|
Sure Texas Tech has the capability of upsetting Gonzaga. The Red Raiders play tenacious defense and have a tremendous coach in Chris Beard. But Texas Tech would have to play its "A" game and Gonzaga would have to be off its game. I don't see that happening. Gonzaga has the deep tournament experience, a height advantage, leads the nation in scoring and has a very strong defense, too. Gonzaga ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring, field goal percentage, scoring margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. But the Bulldogs aren't just offense. They also ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, tied for sixth in defensive field goal percentage and were tied for 18th in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are deeper than Texas Tech, too, with a 10-man rotation. The Red Raiders are going to have problems up front dealing with Gonzaga's star big men, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Add it all up and Gonzaga has enough edges to cover this number.
|03-29-19||Virginia Tech v. Duke -7||Top||73-75||Loss||-104||18 h 11 m||Show|
Duke had its scare surviving Central Florida, 77-76, in its last game. The Blue Devils pulled that one out down three points with 14.4 seconds left.Expect a much better performance here from the Blue Devils. Duke is big-game, tournament experienced while Virginia Tech hasn't made the Sweet 16 since 1962. The Hokies are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. The Blue Devils were missing Zion Williamson when they fell, 77-72, to Virginia Tech on the road during the second-to-last week of the regular season. Duke won't be flat here. The Hokies aren't beating the Blue Devils a second time this season.
|03-28-19||Florida State v. Gonzaga UNDER 147.5||Top||58-72||Win||100||19 h 59 m||Show|
Gonzaga always is one of the highest scoring teams in the country. That certainly was true this season. The Bulldogs led the nation in scoring at 88.6. But what also is true is the oddsmaker sets very high totals on Gonzaga games knowing the public roots for offense. That's a reason why the Under has won 11 of the last 16 times the Bulldogs have played in the NCAA Tournament. The flip side of this equation is Florida State is very strong defensively. The Seminoles hold foes to 67 points per game and rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage. Florida State held Gonzaga to 60 points when the teams met in the NCAA Tournament last season. The combined score added up to 135 points with the Seminoles scoring a 75-60 upset win. Gonzaga should play with super intensity in this rematch. The Bulldogs, though, didn't encounter too many elite defenses competing in the West Coast Conference. St. Mary's probably was the best. The Gaels held Gonzaga to an average of 58 points during the past two meetings. The Bulldogs are a very underrated defensive club. They ranked 31st defensively surrendering an average of 64.8 points a game. Forida State is not a good shooting team and well below average in 3-point shooting percentage ranking a dismal 221st. Note, too, the venue for this matchup. It's the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., where the Under has covered 73 percent of the time during the past 55 times when the total was 124 1/2 or higher.
|03-27-19||Colorado v. Texas -5.5||Top||55-68||Win||100||19 h 54 m||Show|
Texas is home and the superior team. The Longhorns rank 30th, according to Kenpom ratings, while Colorado checks in at No. 63.The key question is how motivated are the Longhorns? They were tremendously disappointed not to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado, on the other hand, has embraced the NIT with its young players having the attitude of using this tournament to gain valuable postseason experience for next year. Fewer than 1,600 fans showed up for Texas' first round home game in the NIT. Normally the Longhorns draw more than 10,000 fans for their home contests at the Erwin Center. The Longhorns doubled their attendance for their second NIT home game. Now with the Longhorns a win away from going to New York for the semifinals of the tournament, the fans and team are starting to get excited. If motivated, Texas should cover this number against Colorado. The Buffaloes are 5-8 in true road contests. Texas is 14-6 at home. Among the Longhorns' home wins were victories against Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Baylor and Iowa State. All of those teams made the NCAA Tournament. The Big East was much better than the Pac-12 this season. Texas didn't make the Big Dance because it went 1-4 down the stretch, including losing to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Star guard Kerwin Roach was suspended for all those games. Roach is back and off his best game in more than a month scoring 21 points with eight rebounds and six assists in the Longhorns' 78-76 overtime victory in their second-round NIT game against Xavier. That's a very encouraging sign for Texas. And just another reason why I like the Longhorns to cover this number.
|03-26-19||Charleston Southern v. Hampton OVER 157||67-73||Loss||-109||16 h 43 m||Show|
There is history between these teams. It came on Jan. 10 with Hampton beating Charleston Southern, 94-82. That's a combined 176 points. Now the teams meet again in the College Insider Tournament with the total opening 19 points shorter than the final score of the first game. Only 20 teams in the nation averaged more points than Hampton. The Pirates shoot 78.1 percent from the foul line. That ranks seventh in the nation. Yet the Pirates made just 11 of 19 free throws for 57.9 percent in their earlier victory versus Charleston Southern. The Buccaneers managed 82 points versus Hampton despite shooting 40.3 percent from the floor and connecting on only 9 of 33 shots from 3-point range. Hampton has scored at least 81 points in eight of its last 11 games. The Over is 14-6-1 in the Pirates' past 21 games.
|03-25-19||Longwood +15 v. DePaul||Top||89-97||Win||100||16 h 55 m||Show|
If you're going to lay this big of a number in a tournament, you better play at least decent defense. DePaul doesn't. The Blue Demons give up 75.5 points a game, which ranks 276th. Only once in their last 20 games have the Blue Demons won by a margin this big. DePaul is 11-26-3 (29.7 percent) following a victory. Reaching the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational may not be a big deal for some teams, but it is for Longwood, a team from the Big South Conference. The Lancers opened the tournament rolling past Southern Mississippi, as 9 1/2-point home 'dogs. That was the 10th time in their last 11 tries the Lancers had covered in a non-conference matchup. DePaul is the home team here. Yet it should be noted that the Blue Demons won't be on their regular home court. It's being used to host a women's basketball tournament. So this game is being played at a much smaller gym that is the home of the DePaul women's volleyball team.
|03-24-19||Ohio State v. Houston UNDER 132.5||59-74||Loss||-109||30 h 31 m||Show|
Both teams have outstanding defenses and play at slow tempos. They aren't going to change their styles. Given the importance of this matchup, Under is the right way to look.Houston gives up just 61.1 points a game, which ranks seventh-best in the country, and holds foes to a nation-best 36.5 percent shooting from the floor. The Cougars also have the No. 1 3-point defense. Ohio State is no match for that as the Buckeyes average fewer than 70 points per game. The Buckeyes, though, rank 42nd defensively holding foes to 66 points a game.
|03-24-19||Oklahoma v. Virginia -11||51-63||Win||100||21 h 37 m||Show|
Rarely has Oklahoma encountered a defense as tough as Virginia's. When the Sooners did they did not fare well going 0-5 versus Wisconsin and two games each against Texas Tech and Kansas State. Not once in those five games did the Sooners break the 61-point barrier. Virginia is the No. 1 defensive team in the country - by a wide margin. The Cavaliers rank No. 1 in scoring defense, No. 2 in 3-point defense and No. 5 in defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma is extremely lucky to even make the Tournament. The Sooners entered tournament play 4-8 SU, 4-7-1 ATS. Oklahoma can get hot, though. The Sooners did just that in blowing out overachieving Mississippi, 95-72, on Friday. Now, though, the Sooners are going way up in class. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cavaliers aren't taking anything for granted after they became the first No. 1 seed to lose in the first round of the tournament falling to Maryland-Baltimore Country last season.The Cavaliers were tight during the first half of their Thursday opening round tournament game against Gardner-Webb. But then they found their groove in the second half to pull away for a 71-56 victory.
|03-23-19||Murray State +5 v. Florida State||Top||62-90||Loss||-115||16 h 12 m||Show|
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
|03-22-19||UCF v. VCU OVER 126.5||73-58||Win||100||18 h 25 m||Show|
VCU ranks 10th defensively in the country. Central Florida gives up the 27th fewest points. So naturally we have a low opening total. But don't be surprised if far more points are scored than anticipated. Central Florida produced 69 and 68 points, respectively, against Houston this season. The Cougars were statistically even better than VCU ranking eighth in the nation in fewest points allowed per game. VCU has a string of scoring 69 or more points in 10 consecutive games. The point spread is around pick, too, so overtime remains a real possibility.
|03-22-19||Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5||Top||74-91||Win||100||13 h 42 m||Show|
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
|03-21-19||Florida v. Nevada -2||Top||70-61||Loss||-109||21 h 40 m||Show|
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
|03-21-19||Murray State v. Marquette -3||83-64||Loss||-117||19 h 42 m||Show|
I'm going to fade the line move here. Marquette isn't getting enough respect from the marketplace while Murray State is getting too much. The Racers have Ja Morant and little else. Marquette has its own superstar, Markus Howard, and a far superior supporting case. Howard has been dealing with a wrist injury, but is fine. The Golden Eagles get check marks across the board against Murray State - better defense, stronger rebounding team and superior from the foul line.
|03-21-19||Bradley v. Michigan State -18||65-76||Loss||-110||17 h 51 m||Show|
Tom Izzo isn't happy Michigan State didn't get a No. 1 seed. So some team is going to pay the price. That team is Bradley, a a typical Missouri Valley Conference squad that can play defense but can't score. The Braves rank 311th in scoring averaging 66.6 points. They are not a high percentage shooting team, nor good at making free throws. The Braves averaged 57 points in their three Missouri Valley Conference Tournament games. Michigan State is used to this type of opponent being in the Big Ten except its competition is far stronger. The Spartans' last four opponents have been Michigan twice, Wisconsin and Ohio State. Bradley is a major step down. The Braves aren't going to be able to keep up with Michigan State's superstar guard Cassius Winston and have no backdoor capabilities when trailing by double-digits. Bradley also doesn't have any tournament pedigree like Michigan State. The Braves have lost 17 straight games to Top 25 opponents. They last played in the NCAA Tournament in 2006.
|03-20-19||Sam Houston State +13.5 v. TCU||69-82||Win||100||18 h 53 m||Show|
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances. It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
|03-19-19||Dayton v. Colorado -4.5||Top||73-78||Win||100||28 h 48 m||Show|
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
|03-17-19||Michigan v. Michigan State OVER 129.5||Top||60-65||Loss||-114||12 h 29 m||Show|
This is the third meeting between these two teams. The total opened the lowest of the three games. I understand that thinking since Michigan and Michigan State know each other backward and forward now. But I also believe there are factors and facts that will make this the highest scoring matchup of the three games. Michigan is playing well. The Wolverines scored 74 and 76 points, respectively, in beating Iowa and Minnesota so far in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. They are in a nice scoring groove. Michigan State is averaging 76 points in its two games versus the Wolverines. The Spartans are averaging 77.5 points in their last four games and that includes a 67-point game against Wisconsin, which has the ninth-ranked defense in the country. The Wolverines haven't been able to stop Michigan State's star guard, Cassius Winston, who has hurt Michigan with his shooting and working the pick-and-roll with Xavier Tillman. It's a plus for Michigan State if Nick Ward can produce points in the low post after returning from a broken hand. Michigan's scoring is going to be helped because Charles Matthews, its third-leading scorer, is back. He hurt his ankle in the first meeting between the teams and sat out the second get together.
|03-16-19||Oregon -115 v. Washington||68-48||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
Washington plays outstanding defense. But Oregon has been playing even better defense holding foes to 55.1 points. The Ducks are blazing winning and covering their last seven games. Dana Altman has done a tremendous job coaching Oregon, which lost star center Bol Bol for the season. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They failed to beat the Ducks when they hosted them last Saturday, losing 55-47. That was the fourth time in the past five meetings Oregon covered versus Washington.
|03-16-19||Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington UNDER 147||Top||58-67||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
If you're going to get involved playing an Under in the Sun Belt Conference this is the game to do it. Georgia Southern and Texas Arlington rank among the three best defensive teams in the league. The Under has cashed the past six times in the series. The two games this season averaged 140 points. Georgia Southern has gone Under in seven of its last eight games. The Mavericks have gone Under 23 times in their last 133 games. Note, too, this game is played at neutral site Lakefront Arena in New Orleans, which has a reputation of being a tough place to shoot because of the backdrop.
|03-16-19||Wisconsin v. Michigan State -4.5||55-67||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
Wisconsin isn't as good as Michigan State especially with the Spartans getting back forward Nick Ward, their second-leading scorer. The Badgers rely on forward Ethan Happ, who isn't a great shooter. Happ didn't play well in the Badgers' 66-62 victory against Nebraska on Friday scoring just four points and committing seven turnovers. The Spartans will key on Happ. The Spartans have the best guard on the court in Cassius Winston. The Badgers will try to key on Winston. The Spartans, though, have a secret weapon, freshman point guard Foster Loyer, to keep the pressure off Winston. Loyer played well in the Spartans' opening Big Ten Tournament victory over Ohio State on Friday. The Badgers struggled against the Cornhuskers, a team the Spartans rolled past, 91-76, at home three games ago. Tom Izzo has Michigan State peaking at the right time again. The Spartans closed the regular season beating Michigan, 75-63, as four-point home favorites a week ago. Wisconsin went up against Michigan on Feb. 9 and lost as seven-point road 'dogs, 61-52. Michigan State handled Wisconsin in the team's lone meeting this season, winning 67-59 on the road. The Spartans have covered 15 of their last 21 Big Ten games, while the Badgers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten matchups.
|03-15-19||Colorado v. Washington -120||Top||61-66||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
The Pac-12 was way down again this season. If there is one decent team in the conference, though, it's Washington. I don't see Colorado getting past the Huskies. The Buffaloes can't solve Washington's tough zone defense. The Huskies are the best team in the Pac-12 because of their league-leading defense giving up 62.3 points a game and ranking No. 2 in the conference in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Huskies are 4-0 SU and ATS versus the Buffaloes the past two seasons. Washington has won these games by an average of 12 points holding the Buffaloes to an average of 61.5 points a game during this span. The teams met just three weeks ago and the Huskies won, 64-55, at home. The Huskies forced 19 turnovers and held Colorado to a season-low in points.
|03-15-19||Iowa State +1 v. Kansas State||63-59||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
The buy sign for me on Iowa State is on after the Cyclones buried Baylor, 83-66, in their Big 12 Conference Tournament game Thursday. I'm going to ride the Cyclones here. These two teams met a month ago at Kansas State. Iowa State won, 78-64. Even though this matchup is in Kansas City, Mo., the Cyclones have a home-court advantage as far as fan support.
|03-14-19||Oregon -4 v. Utah||66-54||Win||100||12 h 33 m||Show|
I like the way Oregon is playing. The Ducks have five straight wins and covers, including zipping past Washington State, 84-51, in their opening Pac-12 Conference Tournament game. The Ducks handled Utah on the road winning, 78-72, during the regular season. Now they draw the Utes on a neutral court. Oregon won that first meeting despite shooting just 5-for-21 from 3-point range and getting fewer free throw attempts than Utah. Oregon has the 19th-stingiest defense in the nation giving up 63.3 points a game. The Ducks have held their last four foes to an average of 51.5 points a game. Utah permits 11 more points per game than Oregon. The Utes have failed to cover in four of their last five neutral site games.
|03-14-19||Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 155||89-81||Loss||-105||5 h 41 m||Show|
These two teams have been about offense rather than defense. But both have been in better defensive form and their intensity is way up with this being the MAC Tournament.The Under has cashed in Kent State's last three games. The Golden Flashes have been playing better defense holding their last two foes to 65 and 66 points. Central Michigan held Western Michigan to 67 points in its opening MAC Tournament victory.
|03-13-19||Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -7||59-73||Win||100||11 h 54 m||Show|
I'm not buying into Pittsburgh getting hot with victories against Notre Dame and Boston College on Tuesday in the opening round of the ACC Tournament. I don't trust the Panthers' freshmen. Pitt is a bad team - 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games verus above .500 foes and 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games - and have had problems trying to solve Syracuse's vaunted 2-3 zone defense. The Orange beat the Panthers, 74-63, at home on Jan. 19 and 65-56 on the road on Feb. 2. The Panthers shot just 33.8 percent and 31.6 percent from the floor in those two games. Syrcause is stepping down in class after concluding its regular season with losses to Virginia and Clemson on the road. The Orange are 7-1 ATS following a straight-up loss.
|03-11-19||San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's||Top||62-69||Loss||-109||9 h 18 m||Show|
San Diego is playing well going 3-0 SU and ATS in the West Coast Conference Tournament. The Toreros enter this semifinal matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed BYU, 80-57, on Saturday. They are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times taking on foes with a winning record.
St. Mary's enters the tournament off a disheartening loss to Gonzaga. That was nine days ago. So the Gaels are going to have some rust. Note this game is at neutral site Las Vegas. St. Mary's is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when playing at a neutral site.
|03-10-19||Iowa v. Nebraska +1||Top||91-93||Win||100||12 h 25 m||Show|
Nebraska plays much better defense at home and as bad as the Cornhuskers have been against the spread lately, Iowa has been worse. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in their last seven games. Fran McCaffery is back coaching the Hawkeyes after being suspended the previous two games. But Iowa hasn't been good for the past three weeks. If it weren't for a home overtime victory against Indiana, the Hawkeyes would be riding a five-game losing streak instead of a three-game loss streak. The Cornhuskers have revenge for a 93-84 road loss to the Hawkeyes on Jan. 6. Nebraska surrenders 16.3 fewer points per game at home. This is Senior Day at Nebraska and I expect James Palmer and Glynn Watson to play well. This has been a home series with the host covering the last four times.
|03-09-19||Northern Arizona v. Northern Colorado UNDER 144||Top||89-78||Loss||-110||14 h 54 m||Show|
There is a good reason why Northern Colorado has gone Under in 17 of its last 22 games. The Bears have the best defense in the Big Sky Conference. They also play at a very slow tempo. The Bears are a heavy favorite in this matchup. So they certainly aren't going to be rushing shots especially if they built up a solid lead as expected.Northern Arizona also plays at at slower than normal pace. The Lumberjacks are very deliberate when going against an above .500 foe as reflected in the Under winning six of the last seven times they have faced a winning team. The teams met earlier this season in late January. Final score: Northern Colorado 63, Northern Arizona 48. That's a combined 111 points.
|03-09-19||Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -1||73-81||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
Texas Arlington is coming on in its bid to finish first in the Sun Belt Conference winning three in a row. Texas State is feeling the pressure of trying to place first. The Bobcats are coming off a bad 77-63 road loss to South Alabama losing as a three-point favorite. The Bobcats' lone cover during their last four games is against free-falling Troy. Texas Arlington has the superior defense. The Mavericks rank first in the Sun Belt in defensive field goal percentage. They are are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory and have covered 12 of their past 15 league games. I'm going to ride them again.
|03-09-19||Texas Tech -2 v. Iowa State||80-73||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
I want hot Texas Tech going for me here especially in a revenge spot. The Red Raiders have won 10 of their last 11 games, including the past eight while going 7-1 ATS. Don't expect any kind of letup either as the Red Raiders are tied for the Big 12 lead with Kansas State and want payback for a 68-64 home loss to the Cyclones. Iowa State is faltering losing six of its last eight games. The Cyclones have failed to cover six of the past eight times versus above .500 opponents. Texas Tech is holding foes to 58.2 points a game, which is the second-best mark in the nation. Iowa State just gave up 90 points to West Virginia and 86 to Texas in the game before that. Texas Tech defeated Texas, 70-51, in its last game.
|03-08-19||St. Joe's +12 v. VCU||63-75||Push||0||12 h 54 m||Show|
This is a letdown spot for Virginia Commnwealth, which just clinched the Atlantic-10 regular season title by burying George Mason, 71-36, on Tuesday. St. Joe's has been competitive. The Hawks are 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS in their last seven games. They have the conference's leading scorer, Charie Brown Jr. The Hawks have covered eight of the last nine times versus the Rams and are 6-0 ATS during their past six visits to VCU.
|03-07-19||Indiana +2 v. Illinois||92-74||Win||100||6 h 55 m||Show|
Don't be fooled by Indiana's record. The Hooisers have played the fourth-toughest schedule in the country as rated by KenPom.com. They have beaten a number of powerhouses, including Wisconsin and Michigan State during their past two games. It's a plus for the Hooisers that big man De'Ron Davis is expected to play after a bout with the flu. Illinois is going the other direction after peaking in mid-season. The Illini is 1-3 in their last four games. They have scored 63 or fewer points in three of their last five games. The Hooisers have covered six of the last seven in the series and are 4-0-1 ATS the past five times playing at Illinois.
|03-07-19||Valparaiso v. Indiana State UNDER 131.5||77-55||Loss||-115||10 h 19 m||Show|
Note this is a Missouri Valley Conference Tournament matchup and is being held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge arena notorious for its poor shooting backdrop. Valparaiso has played four consecutive Under games. The Crusaders are averaging just 53.2 points in their last four games. The Under is 20-8 in the Crusaders' past 28 conference matchups. Indiana State is much better on defense. The Sycamores have a premier shot blocker in Emondre Rickman. However, the Sycamores average fewer than 70 points a game.
|03-06-19||Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic||Top||72-69||Loss||-108||17 h 22 m||Show|
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
|03-05-19||Utah State v. Colorado State +7||Top||100-96||Win||100||13 h 3 m||Show|
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
|03-04-19||Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech||Top||51-70||Loss||-108||19 h 56 m||Show|
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
|03-03-19||Marshall +5 v. North Texas||Top||85-82||Win||100||6 h 8 m||Show|
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
|03-02-19||Boise State v. UNLV -2||81-85||Win||100||19 h 18 m||Show|
The Rebels beat Boise State, 83-72, on the road on Feb. 6 and certainly are capable of beating the Broncos at home. The Rebels are a basket away from being 4-1 in their last five games. Boise State, on the other hand, has fallen apart going 1-6 in its last seven games with losses in their past four games. The Broncos' lone win during this span is against San Jose State, the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. Boise State also could be minus its third-leading scorer as guard Derrick Alston is questionable with a toe injury.
|03-02-19||Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State||Top||79-66||Win||100||13 h 20 m||Show|
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
|03-02-19||Illinois State v. Southern Illinois OVER 133||63-72||Win||100||18 h 37 m||Show|
Illinois State is averaging 66 points in its last two games. Nothing outstanding about that except the Redbirds have played at a faster tempo. They were averaging 58.4 points during their previous five games. Southern Illinois has picked up its pace, too. The Salukis are coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 98-91 road win versus Evansville. Illinois State ranks seven in the 10-team Missouri Valley Conference in scoring defense. The Over has cashed four of the last five times Southern Illinois has hosted Illinois State.
|02-28-19||Long Beach State +8.5 v. UC-Santa Barbara||69-64||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
If you go by won-lost records then this point spread is justified. Long Beach State is 11-18 overall and 5-8 in the Big West Conference. Cal Santa Barbara is 19-8 and 8-5 in league.Current form-wise, though, these teams are much closer than this point spread shows. The spot sets up well for Long Beach State, too. Oddsmakers don't have time to do in-depth study on minor conferences such as the Big West. They are assigning their point spread number based almost entirely on their power rankings. But now the 49ers are playing their finest basketball. They are 3-2 in their last five games, including winning their past two. Prior to last week, the 49ers had dropped eight of nine. Note, though, that five of those defeats occurred by seven points or fewer. Their last four defeats have been by an average of four points. Sophomore wing Jordan Roberts has helped spark this improvement scoring double digits during in each of the last three games after failing to reach that figure in 22 of the first 26 games. Santa Barbara was a level higher than Long Beach during the first half of the season. The Gauchos had aspirations to win the Big West title. But that's not going to happen. Santa Barbara won't be able to catch UC Irvine with only three regular season games left. The Gauchos are just about locked into a top-four spot. Long Beach State is 1 1/2 games out of fifth place in the Big West. The 49ers have incentive to finish fifith in the conference in order to gain a more favorable conference seeding. The Gauchos haven't been good in these type of situations. They are 1-7 ATS the past eight times going against sub .500 opponents and have failed to cover in five of their past seven home games. The 49ers average nearly two more points per game than the Gauchos. They also have covered in their last four road contests. Long Beach State is undervalued here and a very live 'dog in my view.
|02-28-19||USC v. UCLA -3||88-93||Win||100||10 h 38 m||Show|
UCLA is a better and different team than when it lost 80-67 to USC on Jan. 19. The Bruins had won the four previous games in the series. I see them bouncing back here. The Bruins are 12-5 ATS versus opponents sporting a losing road record. USC is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games versus opponents who have a winning home floor.
|02-28-19||Old Dominion +1.5 v. Texas-San Antonio||65-64||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
Old Dominion has lost just once in its last 12 games. That loss, though, occurred to Texas San Antonio. I see the Monarchs getting their revenge here. Old Dominion shot just 30 percent from the field in that defeat while the Roadrunners were on fire from long distance connecting on 16 of 31 3-pointers. The Monarachs are the superior defense ranking in the top-10 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova UNDER 143.5||Top||61-67||Win||100||12 h 45 m||Show|
Expect tremendous intensity in this matchup. Villanova is in revenge and stop-the-pain mode. The Wildcats' shooting has been way off. They need to win with defense. Marquette superstar Markus Howard isn't 100 percent because of a groin injury. There were only 131 points when the team's met the first time this season with Marquette nipping Villanova, 66-65. The teams are even more familiar with each other now.
|02-27-19||Marquette v. Villanova -5||61-67||Win||100||11 h 24 m||Show|
I want Villanova going for me at home in desperate need of revenge and a victory. The Wildcats have lost three in a row. All of those defeats were on the road. They also lost to Marquette by one point on the road on Feb. 9. The Wildcats are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games. They have covered six of the past eight times versus Marquette.
|02-27-19||Houston v. East Carolina OVER 133.5||99-65||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
These teams met last month. East Carolina only managed 50 points. Yet the total still went Over. Now we have a much smaller total for the rematch. It's too short of a total given Houston's scoring ability and tendency to run up scores, which it did against the Pirates in the first meet. Houston poured in 94 points against East Carolina. That was the most points the Cougars had scored since their opening game versus non-league opponent Alabama A&M.
|02-26-19||Wisconsin v. Indiana UNDER 126||73-75||Loss||-109||8 h 44 m||Show|
I'm going to fade the line movement, which has been to the Over, and go with the Under in the belief this total has become inflated. Wisconsin has gone Under in nine of its last 11 games. The Badgers have a top-10 defense. So Under always is my first look with the Badgers. Wisconsin is giving up just 57.3 points per game during its last 10 games. Indiana is averaging only 56 points in regulation during its past four games. Indiana has a respectable defense giving up 67 points per game. The Hoosiers have surrendered just 55.5 points in regulation during their last two matchups. The Under has cashed in five of Indian's last six home contests.
|02-24-19||Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5||77-70||Loss||-130||4 h 45 m||Show|
I am riding MIchigan here. The Wolverines are 16-0 at home. They have covered six of their last seven home games and have owned the Spartans recently beating them by double digits during each of the past three meetings.
|02-23-19||Florida State +7 v. North Carolina||59-77||Loss||-109||12 h 39 m||Show|
Florida State is riding a season-high eight-game win streak. The Seminoles are off a 77-64 road win against Clemson this past Tuesday. They draw North Carolina off an emotional victory against its biggest rival, Duke. Any time the Tar Heels just beat Duke they are ripe for a letdown in their next game. The Seminoles are the best in the ACC in two-point percentage defense. The Tar Heels rank seventh in the ACC in giving up points per 100 possessions.
|02-23-19||Loyola Marymount -1 v. Pacific||63-56||Win||100||12 h 46 m||Show|
Loyola Marymount buried Pacific, 60-42, in the first meeting between these teams as six-point favorites as they dominated the boards and the Lions are in a great spot to do it again. The Lions are off losses to Gonzaga and BYU. They have been idle for a week. Pacfic just played on Thursday night where the Tigers lost, 58-32, to St. Mary's. Pacific is averaging just 50 points in its last three games. Loyola Marymount is tough in these spots, too, going 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times versus a foe with a losing mark.
|02-23-19||Indiana State v. Missouri State UNDER 132.5||61-67||Win||100||18 h 45 m||Show|
Missouri State has gone Under in 11 of its last 13 games. I'm going to ride that trend. The most points the Bears have surrendered during their last nine games is 65 points. They have held seven of their past nine opponents to 63 or fewer points. Indiana State just held Illinois State to 50 points in its last game.
|02-22-19||Harvard -1.5 v. Brown||Top||79-88||Loss||-113||18 h 38 m||Show|
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair.The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia.
|02-21-19||UCF +8 v. Cincinnati||55-60||Win||100||6 h 9 m||Show|
Central Florida is playing well with three straight victories. Cincinnati is tough at home, but I don't see the Knights being outclassed at all in this matchup. They are getting balanced scoring and play with a great deal of intensity. Both teams are strong defensively ranking among the top 40. So taking this many points is huge. The Bearcats have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when going against an above .500 opponent.
|02-20-19||Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown||Top||73-85||Loss||-108||18 h 21 m||Show|
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
|02-19-19||Alabama -123 v. Texas A&M||Top||56-65||Loss||-123||8 h 14 m||Show|
Alabama is on a two-game losing skid. The Crimson Tide are coming off a terrible 18-point home loss to Florida. I expect them to be ready here. They have not lost three games all season and are 14-3 ATS following a double-digit home defeat. Alabama could damage its NCAA Tournament chances with a loss here. The Crimson Tide are the better team - ranked 56th in the latest Ken Pom ratings compared to Texas A&M being rated 98th - and have revenge. The Aggies nipped them, 81-80, on a buzzer beater. The Tide were 7 1/2-point home favorites in that matchup, which occurred on Jan. 12. Alabama led for all but four minutes in that game. Texas A&M is 3-9 in the SEC. The Aggies' other two conference victories were against Georgia and Missouri, who have a combined 4-20 SEC record. Texas A&M is just 4-10 ATS at home this season.
|02-19-19||Vanderbilt +18 v. Tennessee||46-58||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
Vandy is on a 13-game losing streak. But the Commodores have hung close in eight of those losses, either leading or trailing by no more than five points in the final four minutes. They nearly upset then top-ranked Tennessee on Jan. 23 losing in overtime. Tennessee just lost it's No. 1 ranking by losing to Kentucky this past Saturday. The Volunteers have to be down about that defeat. The Commodores take this matchup far more serious than the Volunteers.
|02-18-19||Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin||Top||58-64||Win||100||18 h 5 m||Show|
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent.The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close.
|02-17-19||Fairfield v. Niagara UNDER 147||73-78||Loss||-109||3 h 51 m||Show|
Fairfield is having trouble scoring. The Staggs are averaging just 54.6 points per game during their last five games. But they are playing strong defense holding four of their last five foes to fewer than 63 points a game. The Under has cashed in each of their last nine games. Niagara is averaging 64.6 points per game in its last three games. These teams have a strong Under bias, too, with 10 of the last 13 meetings between the two schools going below the total.
|02-16-19||Northwestern +5 v. Nebraska||50-59||Loss||-109||18 h 26 m||Show|
Northwestern is in stop-the-pain mode suffering five straight losses, including close defeats to Iowa and Rutgers in their last two games. The Wildcats lost those two games by a combined four points. I see the Wildcats bouncing back against Nebraska, which has become a point spread nightmare going 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, including failing to cover in its last six home contests. The Cornhuskers' collapse has coincided with a season-ending injury suffered by forward Isaac Copeland on Jan. 26. He is Nebraska's second leading scorer and rebounder. Nebraska was lucky to end its seven-game losing streak by beating Minnesota in its last game. The Gophers practically handed Nebraska the victory. That won't happen against Northwestern. Bottom line is Nebraska can't be a mid-sized favorite against any Big Ten team right now.
|02-16-19||Tennessee v. Kentucky -3||Top||69-86||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.
|02-16-19||VCU v. Dayton OVER 135||69-68||Win||100||20 h 26 m||Show|
The oddsmaker opened this total too low. VCU won the first meeting between the two teams, 76-71. Dayton has scored at least 75 points in three of its past five games. The Flyers average 74 points on the season, while VCU averages nearly 71 points per game. The Rams are an up-tempo team, too. The Over has cashed in four of their last five games. The Over also has won the past six times these teams have met.
|02-15-19||Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1||Top||77-81||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
This Horizon League showdown is being shown on ESPNU. It's the biggest game of the season for Wright State and I believe the Raiders will be up for the challenge. The Raiders are home and playing their best ball winning seven of their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Wright State is 11-2 at home. Northern Kentucky has a losing record on the road and has been very bad point spread-wise away from home covering only three of its last 12 road matchups. The Norse are 1-8 ATS the past nine times when on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. Northern Kentucky defeated Wright State, 68-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 11 The Raiders managed to cover despite shooting much worse from the floor than Northern Kentucky, making just three of 15 3-point attempts and shooing seven fewer free throws. Wright State's bench has improved since that defeat. The Raiders also rank 49th in the country in free throw percentage compared to Northern Kentucky, which rates 321st in the nation in free throw accuracy.
|02-13-19||Rutgers +6 v. Northwestern||59-56||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
I see a close, intense game here with every point mattering. Northwestern has lost four in a row. The Wildcats have been held to fewer than 53 points in three of their last four games. Rutgers has covered four of its last six games as its freshmen continue to improve. The Scarlet Knights own straight-up victories against Nebraska, Penn State and Indiana during this span. The Scarlet Knights should be pumped in revenge mode for a 65-57 home loss to Northwestern on Jan. 18. Rutgers was without its leading scorer, Eugene Omoruyi, in that game. He will play here.
|02-12-19||Arkansas -117 v. Missouri||78-79||Loss||-117||11 h 16 m||Show|
Arkansas has picked up its game going 4-2 SU and ATS in its last six games. The Razorbacks beat Missouri, 72-60, at home on Jan. 23. This time around, the Razorbacks catch the Tigers off a disappointing, 68-59, home loss to Texas A&M in which they blew a 12-point second half lead. The Tigers have been held to fewer than 61 points in three of their last four games missing their second-leading scorer injured Mark Smith. The Tigers have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 SEC matchups.
|02-12-19||Marquette v. DePaul +3.5||92-73||Loss||-109||11 h 39 m||Show|
This is a dangerous spot for 10th-ranked Marquette traveling after a huge home nationally televised victory against Villanova this past Saturday. DePaul is much improved. The Blue Demons have five wins in Big East play this season, which is their second-highest win total during the past 11 seasons. They have won two in a row. The Blue Demons are 13-3 when outrebounding their opponents. They outrebounded Marquette in the first meeting, but lost 79-69 on Jan. 23. DePaul made 15 of 19 free throws in that game. Marquette, however, was 28-for-32 from the foul line for 87.5 percent.
|02-10-19||East Carolina +14 v. South Florida||68-72||Win||100||15 h 20 m||Show|
Getting a late 3-pointer from David Collins, South Florida upset SMU as 5 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. That victory puts the Bulls 10 games above .500 for the first time in 27 years. South Florida is fat and happy as it returns home to face lowly East Carolina. The Pirates are having a rough season. But they should be pumped for this matchup while the Bulls are in a letdown spot. East Carolina has revenge for a 77-57 loss from two weeks ago and were called out by its coach following a dismal 65-49 loss to Wichita State on Wednesday. It's an added plus for East Carolina if South Florida is missing Alexix Yetna for a second straight game. He leads the American Athletic Conference in rebounding and had a huge performance in the Bulls' earlier victory against the Pirates with 28 points and 13 rebounds. Yetna is dealing with a hamstring injury. The Bulls may not want to take a chance on him for this game with a bigger matchup on deck Wednesday versus Central Florida.
|02-10-19||Siena v. Rider UNDER 134||59-57||Win||100||2 h 19 m||Show|
I'm going to ride the Under train with Sienna. The Saints have gone Under the total in their last eight games and are 12-2 to the low side during their past 14 Metro Atlantic Conference games. The Under also is 6-2-1 in Rider's last nine home games. Sienna has given up fewer than 55 points in five of their last six games, holding four opponents under 51 points during this current span. Rider's offense remains very inconsistent.
|02-09-19||St. Mary's +17 v. Gonzaga||Top||46-94||Loss||-110||11 h 36 m||Show|
I recall St. Mary's upsetting Gonzaga, 74-71, as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs last season. But while I'm not saying the Gaels can pull a similar upset in Spokane this season, I do believe they can hang in and that this line is inflated based on Gonzaga winning 13 in a row with many of those victories occurring in blowout fashion. The Gaels haven't lost a game in regulation by more than six points since Nov. 21. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. St. Mary's may be down from previous seasons, but the Gaels still are very good. They rank 21st in field goal percentage and surrender fewer than 67 points a game. Gaels' guard Jordan Ford leads the West Coast Conference in scoring at 22.1 points a game.
|02-09-19||Tennessee Tech v. Tennessee-Martin UNDER 143.5||58-77||Win||100||7 h 40 m||Show|
Offensive efficiency and tempo are two of the biggest keys in assessing a college basketball totals play. Both elements point to an Under in this Ohio Valley Conference matchup. Tennessee Tech is last in the conference in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles are 274th in the nation in scoring averaging less than 70 points a game. The Under has cashed in eight of their last 11 games. UT Martin plays at a slow pace. The Skyhawks have stepped up their defense recently holding four of their last five foes to fewer than 70 points per game.
|02-09-19||Providence +7 v. St. John's||70-56||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
Providence is in circle-the-wagons mode here desperately needing a victory to keep alive thoughts of trying to make the NCAA Tournament for a school-record sixth straight time. The Friars catch St. John's in a possible letdown scenario after the Red Storm upset Marquette, 70-69, on Wednesday dealing the Golden Eagles their first home loss of the season. The Friars have the defense to hang in against St. John's leading the Big East in forcing turnovers and ranking in the top-50 in adjusted defense. The Friars also like to play at Madison Square Garden. They reached the finals of the Big East Tournament playing at MSG last season before losing to Villanova in overtime. The Friars are 9-4 ATS the past 13 times on the road when playing an opponent with an above .600 home record. Providence has defeated St. John's in six of the last seven meetings, including the past three. The Red Storm are 0-4 ATS the last four times they have hosted Providence.
|02-08-19||Princeton +8 v. Yale||60-74||Loss||-106||4 h 53 m||Show|
I see excellent value here with Princeton. The Tigers have won seven in a row while covering in their last five games. They are 20-8-1 ATS following a victory.
|02-07-19||Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State||Top||77-70||Win||100||21 h 33 m||Show|
I'm usually attracted to the superior team in a pick or underdog spot. That's what we have here with Hawaii against Long Beach State. Hawaii is 4-3 in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of first place. They are ranked 189th in the highly respected Ken Pom ratings. Long Beach State is 2-5 in the Big West with five consecutive losses. The 49ers are ranked 37 spots behind Hawaii by Ken Pom. The Warriors are surrendering 15 fewer points per game than the 49ers during the past five games. The two teams just met last Thursday and Hawaii was a 9 1/2-point home favorite. The Warriors shot 41.7 percent from the floor, missed 21 of 28 3-pointers and shot five fewer free throws yet still easily won, 74-57. So what has caused around a 10-point difference in the line? Well Hawaii is leaving the island following a 75-54 home loss to Santa Barbara as 3-point favorites, but that's not nearly worth that many points. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more straight home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus a sub .500 opponent. Long Beach State is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games against foes with winning records.
|02-06-19||Oklahoma State v. TCU UNDER 142||Top||68-70||Win||100||12 h 10 m||Show|
TCU is one of those good home, bad road teams. The Horned Frogs are home here and primed for a strong game epecially defensively. TCU coach Jamie Dixon is really stressing defense following his team's embarrassing 90-64 road loss to Baylor this past Saturday. That was the Horned Frogs' worst loss since Dixon became their coach in 2016. TCU has held its last three home opponents to an average of 59.3 points a game. The Horned Frogs allowed their past two opponents - Baylor and Texas Tech - to make 24 of 49 3-point shots for 49 percent. Both of those games were on the road. Despite that, the Horned Frogs still rank 26th in the nation in 3-point defensive percentage and were leading the Big 12 in 3-point defense prior to those games. Oklahoma State leads the Big 12 in 3-point shooting. But I see the Horned Frogs really clamping down on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State is averaging just 62.7 points in its last four games. The Cowboys, though, rank 64th in defensive field goal percentage. They have slowed down their pace, too, from earlier in the season, which is a strong plus for the Under.
|02-06-19||George Mason -117 v. Richmond||67-81||Loss||-117||10 h 40 m||Show|
Look for George Mason to bounce back against Richmond. The Patriots had a five-game win streak snapped by VCU this past Saturday. The Patriots are tied for second in the Atlantic 10 with a 7-2 mark. They are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games.
Richmond is 2-7 in conference. The Spiders are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. They have failed to cover in their past four home contests and have played much worse since losing guard Nick Sherod in late November. Richmond averages fewer than 70 points a game. George Mason ranks 89th in scoring defense.
|02-05-19||Valparaiso +8 v. Illinois State||69-53||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
Taking points often is the way to go in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Valparaiso gives up five fewer points per game than Illinois State and draws the Redbirds in a flat spot. Illinois State just beat Loyola of Chicago in front of a sell-out home crowd on Saturday in a first place conference showdown. Valparaiso is in stop-the-pain mode, strong defensively while the Redbirds are just average offensively. If the Crusaders can't pull the outright upset they should be able to hang around and get the cover.
|02-04-19||Louisville +4 v. Virginia Tech||72-64||Win||100||20 h 54 m||Show|
Chris Mack is a great coach and I expect Louisville to put forth a maximum effort following Saturday's 79-69 home loss to North Carolina. There is no shame in losing to North Carolina. There is shame, though, in how meekly the Cardinals went down to defeat. Louisville is 8-1-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Cardinals also have covered in six of their past seven road contests. Until falling to the Tar Heels, the Cardinals had won six straight Atlantic Coast Conference games, winning those games by an average of 18 points. So maybe they were due for a flat performance. I don't expect a second bad game in a row. Virginia Tech is coming off a bizarre 47-24 road victory against North Carolina State on Saturday. The Hokies only hit 36 percent of their shots, but still won by 23 points. Virginia Tech got away with not having senior point guard Justin Robinson against the frigid-shooting Wolfpack. But the absence of Robinson, who is out with an ankle injury, could really hurt the Hokies versus the Cardinals. Robinson is Virginia Tech's second-leading scorer and leads the team in assists.
|02-03-19||Xavier v. Creighton -6||54-76||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
Creighton is undervalued given its tough Big East schedule. Xavier is not. The Musketeers are just bad this season especially on the road. Xavier is 1-5 SU and ATS in true road games this season. All of those road defeats have been by seven or more points. The Musketeers also are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road contests when going up against opponents who own a winning home record. The Bluejays average 82 points when playing at home. Xavier averages 68.1 points on the road. The Bluejays should be pumped, too, for this Sunday home game in a double revenge spot after Xavier won both meetings last season, including nipping Creighton by one point in Omaha.
|02-02-19||Cal Poly v. CS-Northridge -8||65-83||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
Cal Poly is coming off a surpring 71-45 road win against UC Riverside two days ago. The Mustangs were 7-point 'dogs in that game. Cal Poly, though, is far from being a good team. The Mustangs were 1-9 going into that game. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine lined games. They also are a very bad road team going 6-15-2 ATS during their last 23 away matchups. Northridge is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games. The Matadors defeated Cal Poly on the road earlier this season and have covered eight of the last 10 in the series.
|02-02-19||Hofstra v. Northeastern OVER 147.5||61-75||Loss||-110||4 h 28 m||Show|
Hofstra has gone Over in its last four games. The Pride has scored 84, 85, 86 and 87 points in these games. They have scored 84 or more points in eight of their last 10 games. Northeastern has gone Over in six of its last eight home games. The Huskies have gone Over in five of their last six overall contests. They have scored 78 or more points in six of their last nine games.
|02-02-19||San Francisco v. St. Mary's -5||80-86||Win||100||4 h 10 m||Show|
St. Mary's has covered the past five times hosting San Francisco. The Gaels have covered their past five home games and will be highly motivated to get revenge for a road loss to the Dons earlier this season. San Francisco has a revenge game on tap - playing Gonzaga on Thursday. The Gaels have won each of their last seven home games by 15 or more points. The Gaels are back to playing top-notch defense holding three of their past five opponents to 60 points or fewer.
|02-01-19||Princeton -124 v. Columbia||55-43||Win||100||2 h 9 m||Show|
Princeton is in excellent form winning five in a row. I'm going to ride the Tigers here as they have an excellent track record in these type of spots going 6-1 ATS the past seven times meeting an opponent that has a losing won/lost record. The Tigers are 5-2 on the road with a winning ATS away record, too. Columbia is 2-7 ATS at home versus a foe with a winning away mark. Princeton has dominated this series, too, covering eight of the last nine times.
|01-31-19||Oregon v. Utah UNDER 136.5||78-72||Loss||-110||12 h 39 m||Show|
Since losing star center Bol Bol for the season, Oregon has become a different team. The Ducks aren't who you think they are. They go motion a lot and eat up clock. The Under has cashed in three of their last four games. They have held four of their past five opponents to 61 points or fewer. Utah has picked up its defense. The Utes have not allowed any of their last five foes to score more than 70 points. Utah has had difficulty going against tight zone defenses. Oregon is playing far more zone since they no longer have rim protector Bol. These teams have a huge Under history, too, with 10 of the last 11 in the series going below the total.
|01-31-19||Wofford v. Mercer +7.5||76-67||Loss||-110||7 h 35 m||Show|
Wofford is in a flat spot coming off a three-game home sweep where it won two of those games in the final seconds. Despite those victories, the Terriers still have failed to cover in their last four Southern Conference games. Mercer is a bad road team, but good at home going 7-2. The Bears are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home contests. The Bears hung tough at Wofford in the first meeting losing, 78-74, as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 5.
|01-30-19||Fresno State -12 v. Wyoming||75-62||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
I want Fresno State going for me after the Bulldogs were upset, 74-65, as 6-point road favorites at Colorado State in their last game. The Bulldogs have not lost two games in a row all season. Wyoming is 1-6 in the Mountain West having lost six of its last seven games. Wyoming has been hard hit by injuries and lacks the scoring to keep up with Fresno State. The Cowboys average just 65.6 points a game, which ranks 323rd in the nation. Fresno State is 7-1 ATS the past eight times facing a foe with a losing home record. The Cowboys have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. They lack the manpower and experience to cope with what should be a fired-up and mad Bulldogs squad.
|01-29-19||Tennessee v. South Carolina +9||Top||92-70||Loss||-110||17 h 3 m||Show|
Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
|01-28-19||Baylor +6 v. Oklahoma||77-47||Win||100||21 h 53 m||Show|
Baylor is 4-1 since losing center and second-leading scorer Tristan Clark for the season with a knee injury. The Bears have come together following Clark's injury riding a season-high four game win streak. The Bears have knocked off ranked Texas Tech and won at Oklahoma State during this span. There are some key intangibles that point to the Bears keeping this one close - if not pulling the outright upset. Oklahoma just rolled past Vanderbilt, 86-66, this past Saturday in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge game. Vandy is coached by Bryce Drew, the younger brother of Baylor coach Scott Drew. So you know the older Drew has picked his brother's brain about how best to attack the Sooners. Not committing turnovers is one element. Vanderbilt committed 22 turnovers in its road loss to the Sooners. Baylor turned the ball over just eight times, tying a season-low, in beating Alabama, 73-68, this past Saturday. The Bears have gone more to playing four guards at one time since losing Clark. That could account for fewer turnovers. The Bears are playing tough defense holding their last four foes to 68 points a game. Baylor also leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin at plus 6.5. Baylor is used to playing on Monday after having just been in action on Saturday. They have done it the past two weeks, posting Monday road victories against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The familiarity in this routine is a plus. The Bears won both of these games straight-up as an underdog. Baylor is 4-0 ATS during its past four away contests. The Bears also have covered in four of their last five road games versus the Sooners. The last time the Sooners played on less than two days rest was back in November. Oklahoma hasn't been playing that well either going 3-3 in its last six games.
|01-26-19||Utah v. California UNDER 146||82-64||Push||0||8 h 39 m||Show|
Utah has been playing strong defense. The Utes have held their last four foes to 70 points or fewer. California struggles offensively. The Golden Bears haven't reached 60 points during their last three games. They rank last in the Pac-12 in scoring and field goal percentage. The Under has cashed in four of the Golden Bears' last five games.
|01-26-19||UNLV v. San Diego State -5.5||77-94||Win||100||4 h 49 m||Show|
San Diego State is in a foul mood after blowing a 20-point road lead against Fresno State in its last game. The Aztecs are 15-6 ATS for 71 percent in their last 21 home games, including beating UNLV by 38 points last season at home. UNLV has covered just 25 percent of its last 41 away matchups. The Rebels have played an easy Mountain West schedule. So their record is misleading. Look for the Aztecs to expose the Rebels here.
|01-26-19||Samford v. Furman -9||75-73||Loss||-105||17 h 50 m||Show|
Furman is 10-0 at home with a winning home ATS mark. The Paladins have dominated this series winning the past six times. They beat Samford both times last season winning each game by double digits, including defeating the Bulldogs by 15 points on the road. The spot is bad for Samford. The Bulldogs are coming off a 107-106 overtime loss to Wofford as 12-point road 'dogs this past Thursday.
|01-26-19||Dayton v. Fordham OVER 132.5||75-52||Loss||-109||15 h 43 m||Show|
Dayton won last year's game, 80-70, against Fordham. The Flyers rank No. 5 in the country in field goal percentage. Fordham has some fancy defensive statistics that are out of whack because of the easy schedule it has played. The Flyers have gone Over the total in nine of their last 12 games. The Over has cashed in Fordham's past four games. The Over has cashed five of the last six times the two teams have met.
|01-25-19||Butler v. Creighton OVER 153||Top||61-75||Loss||-110||19 h 44 m||Show|
Creighton is the 19th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.9 points a game. Yet the Bluejays were held to 69 points in an 84-69 road loss to Butler during the team's first meeting on Jan. 5. Creighton made just 7 of 27 3-point shots (25.9 percent), was 16-of-24 (66.7 percent) from the foul line and hit 45.1 percent from the floor. On the season, the Bluejays rank fourth in field goal percentage at 50.5 percent, are No. 2 in the nation in 3-point percentage at 43 percent and are 67 percent from the foul line. So I see vast improvement coming from the Bluejays at home in the rematch. Creighton has gone Over in six of its last eight home matchups. Butler ranks 213th in defensive field goal percentage and 190th in 3-point defense. The Bulldogs have played seven consecutive Over the total games. They are averaging 79.6 points in their last three games. Creighton had problems stopping Kamar Baldwin, Butler's leading scorer. He scored 28 points and dished off seven assists against the Bluejays. Since the team's last met, Butler forward Jordan Tucker has come on to average 16.5 points so the Bluejays just can't concentrate on Baldwin. The Bulldogs have been a strong Over team in Big East competiton with the Over cashing 13 of the past 16 times (81 percent) in league play.
|01-24-19||Hofstra v. James Madison UNDER 144||85-68||Loss||-109||10 h 47 m||Show|
Hofstra has gone Under in 13 of its last 16 road games. Look for that trend to continue here. The Pride has become zone-oriented and James Madison has had problems versus zone defenses. James Madison shoot just 43.3 percent from the floor. The Dukes have failed to reach 70 points in three of their last four games. Hofstra is capable of putting up big numbers so James Madison is not going to play up-tempo.
|01-24-19||Oakland v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 153||71-73||Win||100||9 h 15 m||Show|
Nothing like Horizon League basketball - at 8 in the morning West Coast time. Yep these two teams tip-off in the morning local time, which automatically has me thinking Under the total. Oakland has scored 76 or fewer points in six of its last nine games. The Golden Grizzlies are perceived as a high-scoring outfit. Yet they have gone Under in 20 of their past 28 Horizon League games. Indiana-Purdue is averaging fewer than 68 points during its last five games if you discount the Jagaurs' 90-74 victory against Cleveland State. The Jaguars have been an Under team, too, in league play as eight of their past 11 Horizon League matchups have gone below the total.
|01-23-19||St Bonaventure v. Massachusetts -3||65-51||Loss||-115||8 h 38 m||Show|
UMass is stepping down in class and can take advantage of St. Bonaventure's youth. The Bonnies are dealing with injuries and have been horrible on the road going 0-8-1 ATS during their last nine road games. UMass has the better offense and is showing improvement on the defensive end. The Minutemen are averaging nearly six more points per game than St. Bonaventure.
|01-22-19||Duke v. Pittsburgh +13||Top||79-64||Loss||-105||19 h 25 m||Show|
Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.