Warning: Use of undefined constant PAGE_HEADER - assumed 'PAGE_HEADER' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/profe126/jesseschule.com/respsportscapping.php on line 15
PAGE_HEADER

Like him or not, Dan Hurley has done an excellent job getting UConn to this NCAA tournament title game. Unfortunately for the Huskies, an all-time great Michigan team awaits them.

Connecticut's tough defense isn't going to be able to stop the Wolverines and the Huskies' offense isn't good enough to trade points.

Michigan is averaging 94.4 points a game in its five NCAA tournament games. The Wolverines are the only team in tourney history to score 90 or more points in each of their first five games.

I don't think the Huskies are as good as Arizona and Michigan beat the Wildcats by 18 points.

Statistically, Michigan has the better numbers and the Wolverines played in the stronger Big Ten Conference. Michigan’s offensive firepower advantage and interior defensive dominance should not only result in a victory, but a cover too. 

Not only do we have two outstanding defensive coaches in this matchup in Tom Izzo of Michigan State and Dan Hurley of Connecticut, each with ample preparation time, but both these teams rank among the top 15 in defensive efficiency.

Michigan State has a top 25 defense and limits second chance possibilities ranking sixth in defensive rebounding. The Spartans can handle Connecticut big man Tarris Reed in the post.  

The Huskies give up the 10th fewest points per game at 65.3 and rank 17th in defensive field goal percentage.

Michigan State is averaging 84.3 points in its three postseason games. The Spartans have made 32-of-69 (46.3 percent) 3-point shots during these last three games. I see regression coming for Michigan State. The Spartans made 35.5 percent of their 3-point shots during the regulation season. 

Maybe the most impressive thing about Iowa's upset of Florida last week was the Hawkeyes achieved the victory despite their star, Bennett Stirtz, going 0-for-9 from 3-point range and scoring only 13 points.

Nebraska is on house money having ended an 0-8 NCAA Tournament history and survived Vanderbilt, 74-72. The Commodores made just 41% of their shots from the field and made only 58% of their free throws against the Cornhuskers.

Credit to Nebraska's defense. But Iowa's defense is slightly better than the Cornhuskers. Plus the Hawkeyes are the superior defensive rebounding team and free throw shooting team. They beat Nebraska, 57-52, at home and lost in overtime to the Cornhuskers on the road.

These two Big Ten teams certainly know each other well. No knock on Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg, but Iowa's Ben McCollum is in the argument for best coach in the country and Stirtz is the best player on the floor.

I like that McCollum has ample time to prepare for Nebraska's unique defense and its heavy reliance upon 3-pointers.

Because the Cornhuskers are so reliant upon shooting 3-pointers, it is more of a negative to them with this game being played at a neutral site, the Toyota Center in Houston. 

The records show UNLV to be 18-16 and Tulsa 27-7. Sometimes records are not a good indicator of who is going to cover, especially when it comes to the NIT.

But not in this case.

Tulsa is a much better team than UNLV on both sides of the ball. Toss in a home court edge and this point spread is too short.

The Golden Hurricane rank 23rd in the country in scoring and have the 11th best 3-point shooting percentage. UNLV has much worse defensive numbers, ranks 99th in scoring and 148th in 3-point shooting.

The Rebels' 3-point defense goes all the way down to 303rd when they are the road team. UNLV also has trouble limiting turnovers when away from home.

UNLV is heavily reliant upon one scorer, Dra Gibbs-Lawson. However, Gibbs-Lawson runs hot and cold. 

Congrats to Nebraska on winning its first-ever NCAA Tournament game beating Troy, 76-47. The Cornhuskers don't have long to savor that historic win from Thursday. They are back in action today against a much stronger opponent - Vanderbilt.

Not only are the Commodores tough on both ends of the court, but Nebraska hasn't strung together consecutive point spread covers since January.

Not only does Vanderbilt have one of the best interior defenses in the SEC, but the Commodores rank 21st in the nation in scoring at 86.4 points per game. They are the third most accurate free throw shooting team in the country at 79.4%. Vanderbilt shoots a lot of free throws, too, averaging 18.5 per game.

Flashy Alabama leads the nation in scoring, averaging 91.7 points a game. But there are factors working against the Crimson Tide that point to a cover for underdog Hofstra.

The Crimson Tide will be without Aden Holloway. He is their second leading scorer at 16.8 PPG. Holloway was arrested on a felony drug charge and has been suspended from the team.

Hofstra gives up 66.2 points a game, 16th-best in the country. That is 17 points fewer per game than what Alabama gives up. The Pride also rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage.

Yes Alabama is a team from the powerhouse SEC while Hofstra made its way into the tournament by winning the Coastal Athletic Association Tournament. But the Pride have been playing well going 11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS in their last dozen games. Their style is a complete contrast to Alabama.

The Crimson Tide like to run and play fast. Hofstra is just the opposite. They play at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. The Pride are patient and deliberate. Even if their shooting is off, they are live to get second and third shots as Alabama ranks 355th in defensive rebounding.

Texas A&M is going to have a lot of trouble with Saint Mary's grind out, slow down style. I rate the Gaels' Randy Bennett as one of the better coaches in the country. Bennett has had ample time to prepare his team for the Aggies' frenzied style.

The Aggies give up nearly 14 more points per game than Saint Mary's and are a very bad defensive rebounding team. The Aggies are not in great form either, just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. They are 3-9 versus NCAA Tourney teams this season.

Saint Mary's ranks 21nd defensively giving up 66.3 points a game. They are 10th in 3-point shooting. Since Feb. 1, the Gaels have had the best 3-point shooting percentage of any team in the field. Oh yes, the Gaels also are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the country. 

It would have been better for Arkansas to have played on Friday. The Razorbacks could have used the rest after winning the SEC tournament by playing this past Friday, Saturday and Sunday taking out Vanderbilt, Mississippi in overtime and Oklahoma by three points. That took a lot of energy and emotion for the Razorbacks.

I don't trust John Calipari to have Arkansas up for this game after winning the SEC Conference Tournament. The Razorbacks are making the long trip to Portland, Oregon and this is an early start time. Hawaii has been in Las Vegas. The Rainbow Warriors have a much shorter journey.

Calipari teams are 2-8 ATS as 15-point favorites or more in the NCAA Tourney.

Arkansas is not a great defensive team ranking 312th. Hawaii ranks 18th in 3-point defense and is well-coached.  

Siena should be a monster underdog to Duke. But not by this many points considering the circumstances and how the teams match up.

The Saints give up 66.5 points a game, which ranks 22th in the nation. They play at an extremely slow tempo. That means this will be a low possessions game.

Duke is in a very tough region. The Blue Devils will be missing a couple of starters. Their goal isn't to cover a huge number. It's to use this game as a rest stop. That means the Blue Devils will be sitting their starters once they build up a big enough lead.

The Saints rely heavily on their five starters. So the backdoor will be open if necessary because Siena won't be substituting. 

A large part of the NIT is what teams are happy to participate and what teams are disappointed because they didn't make the NCAA Tournament. Illinois-Chicago falls into the former while California is in the latter.

Illinois-Chicago will take part in postseason play for the first time in 22 years. This is very exciting for the Flames. UIC earned this distinction by winning 14 of 19 games to close the season. The Flames are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.  

The Golden Bears did not close well, losing three of their last four games, including a 95-89 setback to Florida State in the ACC Tournament. They have a losing ATS mark in their last 10 games.

Illinois-Chicago is more accurate from the field than California and also gives up fewer points per game than the Golden Bears. 

This high point spread might be accurate if Auburn cared about this game. But the Tigers don't. They are still disappointed about being omitted from the 68-team NCAA Tournament field fight despite having played the third hardest schedule in the country.

I don't see the Tigers being ready, or motivated, to play up to their capability. They are 3-9 in their last dozen games.

South Alabama, on the other hand, has plenty of incentive. “It’s an honor for our team to be invited to play in the NIT,” South Alabama coach Richie Riley was quoted as saying. “This group has battled adversity all season and is truly deserving of this opportunity. I’m thankful that I’m going to get to coach these guys for a little longer.”

The Jaguars are 21-11. They've only lost once by more than 13 points and that came to East Tennessee State, which won the Southern Conference.

South Alabama has the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in Chaze Harris, who averages 18.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. The Jaguars will be going all out to prove themselves against their bigger in-state rival. 

I like Utah Valley to beat California Baptist in the Western Athletic Conference Tournament championship game.  The Wolverines had their scare in yesterday's game beating UT Arlington, 67-65, as an 8 1/2-point favorite. Utah Valley got the rust off in that game having not played for six days. The Wolverines also got used to the small venue at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, site of the tournament.

Utah Valley has won 10 of its last 11 games, including the past seven. The Wolverines average 84 points a game, which is 11 more than California Baptist averages. Utah Valley ranks 11th in the country in field goal percentage. The Lancers rank 299th in field goal percentage.

The two teams are next to even in defensive field goal percentage ranking 38th and 39th, respectively, holding opponents to 41.4 percent shooting.

Utah Valley has defeated the Lancers in eight of the last 10 meetings.

UConn is an elite defensive team giving up the ninth fewest points in the country at 65.3 per game. The Huskies also play at one of the slowest paces. Georgetown is well below average in tempo, too.

The Hoyas held Villanova to 64 points and DePaul to 56 points during their first two games of the Big East Conference Tournament.

Going into today, there have been more Unders than Overs in the Big East Tournament. No surprise as the tournament site is Madison Square Garden, which has been a tough venue for scoring. 

St. Joe's is the hottest team in the Atlantic 10 going into the conference tournament. The Hawks have won and covered their past six games. Even more remarkable, is that St. Joe's is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 games for 87.5 percent.

The Hawks are the more rested team for this quarterfinal matchup against Davidson. The Wildcats struggled with 14th-seeded Loyola Chicago on Thursday before winning in overtime.

St. Joe's nearly blew a 15-point lead when it last played Davidson nine days ago at home. The Hawks did win that game, 70-67. 

Even though Louisville nipped Miami, 92-89, during the team's final regular season game  this past Saturday. I believe Miami is the superior team and will prove it today.

The Cardinals snuck past Miami by making 60% of their shots from the floor and shooting 50% from three point range. I don't see Louisville being that hot again. The Hurricanes have the better defense and are the superior shooting team ranking 10th in the nation in field goal percentage at 50.6.

Miami is 7-2 in its last nine games and has covered six of its past eight games. Power forward Malik Reneau is a matchup nightmare for Louisville, which has struggled with its interior defense.

The Hurricanes have a rest advantage, too. They last played five days ago while the Cardinals had a tough, 62-58, victory against SMU on Wednesday. 

Forget that UNLV was blown out by Wyoming, 98-66, the first time these two teams played this season. That was back on Jan. 6 and it was in Wyoming.

The Rebels are playing much better now and they get the advantage of playing at home in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. That makes a huge difference. UNLV is 10-6 at home. Wyoming is 3-9 on the road.

UNLV is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Rebels may have the best player in the Mountain West, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn. He is a tremendous offensive talent averaging 21 points per game - best in the conference - while shooting 50.9% from the field and 84.7% from the free throw line.

Sparked by Gibbs-Lawhorn, the Rebels are averaging 80.2 points per game, which is their highest since the 2017-18 season.

Wyoming has failed to break the 70-point barrier in 11 of its past 15 games. 

Nothing against Michigan, but I trust Tom Izzo and want Michigan State going for me with this many points. Michigan is the superior team. No argument there. But the Spartans are very good, too, and the Wolverines may not be as fully motivated as usual since they have already clinched the Big Ten title.

Michigan State had a disastrous first half in its first meeting against Michigan on Jan. 30. The Spartans missed 14 of their first 18 shots and trailed by 16 points at halftime. Michigan State ended up making only 4-of-23 shots from 3-point range for 17 percent. The Spartans average 35.6 percent from 3-point range on the season. Despite the horrendous shooting, Michigan State lost by only eight points.

I expect the Spartans to shoot better. Michigan gives up only 1.7 fewer points per game than Michigan. Both are very tough defensively. Michigan State leads the country in defensive rebound.

The Wolverines have less rotation depth than they did in the first meeting having lost sophomore guard L.J. Cason (8.4 ppg) to a torn ACL last week.

This spot sets up great for Colorado. The Buffaloes are tough in Boulder and Arizona does not have strong motivation having already locked up the No. 1 seed in the Big 12 Conference Tournament.

Even if the Wildcats were to build up a big lead, the backdoor would swing wide open for Colorado as the Wildcats don't want to risk injury and extended minutes for their starters.

Colorado is 13-4 at home this season. The Buffaloes have won and covered their past four home games, including beating TCU during this span. They lost by only six points to Kansas at home and by just two points to Texas Tech at home when the Red Raiders had their star player, JT Toppin. 

Not only is Coastal Carolina better than Georgia Southern, but the Chanticleers have a huge rest advantage.

Georgia Southern, 8-10 in the Sun Belt Conference, is playing for the fourth straight day. Coastal Carolina enters this Sun Belt Conference Tournament quarterfinal completely rested having last played on Feb. 27. The Chanticleers earned their bye going 11-7 in conference action.

Coastal Carolina gives up nearly eight fewer points per game than the Eagles. The Chanticleers also hold a strong rebounding edge. They led the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding. 

Not only is Missouri 15-2 at home and expecting a sell-out crowd for its final home game of the season, but the Tigers have far more at stake than Arkansas in this matchup.

A victory for the Tigers can be the difference between getting a double bye or coming in anywhere from a fourth to a 10th seed for the SEC Tournament.

Arkansas already has locked up a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. So the Razorbacks' motivation is far less than Missouri's.

The Razorbacks' road record is 4-5 compared to 16-1 at home and they surrender five points more per game than  Missouri. 

Drake has lost its last nine games. But don't count the Bulldogs out now that we've reached the Mountain Valley Conference Tournament. Drake has made five consecutive MVC Tournament championship games.

The ninth-seeded Bulldogs and eighth-seeded Southern Illinois have played two close games this season. Drake won the first meeting in overtime, 76-73, and lost, 66-61, to the Salukis last month.

Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup. That's evident by this very low total. The game is being played at a neutral site, Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is where the Blues play their home hockey games. It is a large arena made for hockey not basketball, thus presenting a tough shooting backdrop.

Drake knows how to win here, though. The Bulldogs also have the best player on the court in senior guard Jalen Quinn. He led the MVC in scoring this season at 19.4 points a game. That average climbs to 22 points a game in his two games against Southern Illinois. 

Texas Tech quieted skeptics that they couldn't win without injured star player JT Toppin by upsetting Iowa State, 82-73, as a 9 1/2-point road 'dog this past Saturday.

But that victory puts the Red Raiders in a letdown spot here against TCU, whose strengths match up to Texas Tech's weaknesses. The Horned Frogs are good at forcing turnovers and getting to the free throw line. The Red Raiders can be foul-prone and turnover-prone.

TCU has beaten Texas Tech in five of the past seven meetings. The Horned Frogs are playing well, too, going 6-1 in their last seven games, including a victory against Iowa State. 

The defensive intensity should be off the charts for this matchup, the last regular season game between Gonzaga and Saint Mary's before Gonzaga moves to the Pac-12 next season.

My interest is the Under. It has cashed the past eight times in this series. That is not a fluke. Gaels coach Randy Bennett knows how to slow down and frustrate Gonzaga. Bulldogs coach Mark Few certainly is familiar with Saint Mary's.

Gonzaga has a top-20 defense. The Bulldogs have gone under in 13 of their 17 West Coast Conference games this season for 76 percent. One of these Unders was a 73-65 Gonzaga home win against St Mary's on Jan. 31. There were 46 free throws shot in that game, too.

The Gaels are elite again defensively ranking sixth in fewest points allowed and are second in defensive rebounding. They should be able to limit the Bulldogs' second chance scoring opportunities.

UNLV's Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is a great scorer. He is averaging 28.1 points per game since Jan. 1. But consistency and defense matter more. Those are edges Nevada possesses in this matchup and it puts me on the Wolf Pack.

These are some of the reasons why Nevada is 19-9 and 11-6 in the Mountain West while UNLV is 14-14 and 9-8 in the Mountain West.

The Rebels just scored a season-low 24 points in the first half during an 80-67 road loss to Grand Canyon this past Wednesday.

UNLV gives up an average of 81.7 points a game. Nevada allows 10 points fewer per game at 71.6 points.

The Wolf Pack handled the Rebels without problem, 89-76, at home as 7 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 30. A big key to that victory was Nevada shooting 31 free throws to UNLV's 11. But that wasn't some kind of homer aberration.

Nevada averages 25.5 free throws per game, 17th most in the nation. UNLV allows 26.3 free throws per game, which is the seventh most in the country. 

Cal Riverside ranks 258th defensively, giving up 77.4 points a game. The Highlanders are 317th in defensive field goal percentage.

So I am expecting a huge scoring game from the Gauchos. The key is if the Highlanders can score their share of points to push this total Over. I believe they can. Santa Barbara has allowed 78 or more points in five of its last six games.

The Highlanders have the conference's third-leading scorer in Andrew Henderson. 

I like St. Mary's to get revenge at home for a 62-54 road loss to Santa Clara last month. The Gaels shot 31 percent from the floor, were 4-of-22 from 3-point range and made only 64% of their free throws in that loss even though they are the No. 1 most accurate free throw shooting team in the country at 80.4 percent.

Santa Clara is a good, but not great defensive team like St Mary's is. The Broncos are giving up an average of 82.7 points during their last four games.

The Gaels give up the sixth-fewest points in the country at 64.3 per game. Santa Clara relies heavily on getting second shots. St. Mary's, though, ranks third in defensive rebounding.

The 25-4 Gaels are in excellent current form winning five straight, including road wins at Washington State and dominant home victories against Pepperdine (88-60) and San Francisco (79-54). They have not lost at home all season. St. Mary's is giving up only 56.2 points a game during its last four home games. 

Cincinnati is off a stunning, 84-68, road upset of Kansas this past Saturday. The Bearcats were 8 1/2-point underdogs.

I would be very surprised if Cincinnati pulls off a similar away upset here against Texas Tech. Not only are the Bearcats in a letdown spot, but they are 2-5 in their Big 12 road games.

Cincinnati's defense has been much worse when not playing at home and the Bearcats rank last in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting percentage. They also are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation ranking 334th.

Texas Tech is 13-1 at home. That includes a 6-1 conference home mark. The Red Raiders are second in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting percentage and in field goal percentage. They average 10 more points per game than Cincinnati.

I thought this line would be much higher even with star big man J.T. Toppin lost for the season with a knee injury. The Red Raiders blew out Kansas State, 100-72, as 12 1/2-point home favorites on Saturday in their first game without Toppin, who was the Big 12 Player of the Year last season.

This line has been discounted because of Toppin being out. Texas Tech, however, has a deep roster and still has star players with Christian Anderson, who averages 19.1 points a game and leads the Big 12 in assists, and Donovan Atwell. He leads the Big 12 with 100 made 3-pointers and is second in the conference in 3-point shooting accuracy.

The Red Raiders are anxious to prove they can still win without Toppin and they want to do it at home in front of a national TV audience with this game being broadcast on ESPN2. 

I find the Holy Cross-Bucknell total too high given how bad the offenses are on these two teams.

Holy Cross is 342nd in scoring, 300th in 3-point shooting and 346th in offensive rebounding. The Crusaders also are among the top 20 slowest paced teams in the nation.

Bucknell is just as bad offensively - if not worse. The Bison are 350th in scoring, 337th in field goal percentage and 341th in 3-point shooting. They rank even lower than Holy Cross in offensive rebounding.

The Bison are averaging only 61 points a game during their last five games. Like Holy Cross, they play at a very slow tempo.

There isn't a player on either team who averages more than 15 points a game.

Bucknell has lost four in a row. Holy Cross has dropped three consecutive games. This is a winnable game for each team so the defensive intensity should be up. 

East Carolina and Charlotte rank among the five lowest scoring teams in the American Athletic Conference.

East Carolina is particularly brutal on the offensive end ranking 315th in scoring, 332nd in field goal percentage and 365th in 3-point shooting.

Charlotte is no offensive prize either. The 49ers don't have a player who averages more than 12 points a game. They play very slow and don't take care of the ball, ranking 286th in turnovers per possession.

There were 143 combined points when the teams met on Jan. 18. Charlotte won, 73-70, as a short road 'dog. The 49ers do not figure to be as hot as they were in that game when they made 54.2 percent of their shots from the floor, hit 10 of 21 3-pointers and were 84.6 percent from the foul line.

Vermont has dominated the America East Conference, winning or owning a share of the regular-season crown in eight of the last nine seasons. But to those who seriously follow this conference, UMBC is the better team this season. The Catamounts are down from past years.

UMBC has the better conference record and two fewer losses overall than Vermont. The Retrievers lead the league with a +6.3 scoring margin, give up the fewest points per game in conference play and also are No. 1 in defensive rebounding.

They also have a winning point spread record which Vermont doesn't have. The Catamounts give up more points per game than UMBC and rank 286th in 3-point defense. The Catamounts are 70th in 3-point defense.

The Retrievers are 9-2 at home. They have won six of their last seven games. UMBC is on a four-game win streak, winning their past three games by an average of 18.3 ppg. This is the Retrievers' best conference start since their 2007-2008 championship season.

The oddsmaker has made a mistake opening Vermont as a road favorite.

This is bad on bad. Northwestern is home, but certainly doesn't deserve to be this high of a favorite. Maryland has the better overall and Big Ten Conference record.

The Terrapins are playing better, too. They are 2-1 in their last three games with upset victories against Iowa, 77-70, and at Minnesota, 67-62. The Terrapins were plus 10 1/2 vs. Iowa and plus 9 1/2 against the Gophers.

Northwestern has lost five consecutive games. The Wildcats are averaging 60 points per game during this span. They have no business laying this many points. Maryland nearly swept them last season winning, 74-61, at home and losing, 76-74, in overtime on the road.

Fresno State beat Wyoming, 63-60, at home a month ago. The total went Under by 22 1/2 points. The total opened even higher for this rematch and Fresno State may be without its leading scorer, Jake Heidbreder.

Heidbreder is questionable with a back injury. He averages 17.5 points a game. No other Bulldog averages more than 12 points a game.

Fresno State is not a good offensive team even with Heidbreder. The Bulldogs rank 281st in scoring, 241st in field goal percentage, 295th in 3-point shooting and 301st in turnovers per possession.

Wyoming, like Fresno State, is better on defense. The Cowboys rank 121st defensively and are 14th in defensive rebounding.

The Cowboys are going to have to earn their points the hard way since they are a poor 3-point shooting team - ranking 239th - and Fresno State is a top 10 team in defending 3-pointers. 

It is not too much to ask of Colgate to beat Boston University in this Patriot League matchup. Colgate is second in the Patriot League at 10-4 and is 16-11 overall. The Terriers are 7-7 in league and 12-15 overall.

Colgate is 33rd in field goal shooting percentage and commits just 10.5 turnovers per game. The Raiders rank 40th in 3-point defense at 32.4 percent. That number shrinks to 30.8 percent when they are on the road.

Boston University is 314th in defensive field goal percentage and 351st in 3-point defense.  

The Raiders just lost to Patriot League leader Navy, 84-80 in overtime, at home. The Terriers, by contrast, lost by eight when they hosted Navy. 

Rider hosted Sacred Heart on Jan. 19. It did not go well for Rider. The Broncos lost, 105-85.

No surprise as Rider is 3-21, including having a 2–13 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference record. Sacred Heart is 11-16 and 7-9 in the MAAC.

The Pioneers are easily double digits better than Rider as they proved in the first matchup and now they are home where they have a winning record.

Sacred Heart is averaging 78.8 points per game. That's 13 points more per game than what Rider averages. The Broncos have one of the worst offenses in the country ranking 359th in scoring, 350th in points per possession, 360th in field goal percentage and 365th in 3-point shooting.

Rider is almost as bad on defense giving up an average of 79.5 points a game, which ranks 289th. The Broncos are 345th in 3-point defense. Sacred Heart ranks 53rd in 3-point shooting accuracy and attempts the seventh most 3-pointers in the country in home games. 

Despite an 80-73 loss to Villanova in their last game, the Hoyas have been playing much better. They had won and covered their previous four games, including upsetting Butler and Providence on the road.

Connecticut has been an overrated point spread team the entire season and nothing changes here. The Huskies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They are an inflated favorite again in this matchup. 

I'm not suggesting Clemson is in Duke's class. But the Tigers are only one game behind the Blue Devils in the ACC and have the top defense in the league giving up an average of 64.6 points per game, ninth-best in the country.

There is much to like about Clemson and taking this many points puts me on the Tigers.

Clemson commits fewer turnovers per possession than Duke and ranks 37th in 3-point defense. Duke is just average in three-point shooting percentage. The Blue Devils could also be without center Patrick Ngongba. He missed their last game with a wrist injury. Ngongba is Duke's second-leading rebounder and third-leading scorer.

Clemson is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games and 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. Duke. 

This may be the weirdest schedule spot of the college basketball season. Hampton and North Carolina A&T, two small Southern schools, are playing tonight at the Kia Forum in Inglewood, Calif. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. West Coast time, three hours later than these two teams normally play.

I'm going to take advantage of this bizarre setting to go Under the total.

Hampton has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Pirates rank 327th in scoring, 330th in field goal percentage and 346th in 3-point shooting. Their leading scorer averages fewer than 12 points a game. North Carolina A&T rates 203rd defensively and 260th on offense.

The Pirates, though, are 41st defensively and North Carolina A&T is averaging only 64.3 points during its past three games, all of which have gone Under.

Princeton is trying to win its fourth Ivy League title in the past five seasons. The Tigers have their revenge game of the season hosting Cornell.

Cornell embarrassed Princeton, 87-64, at home two weeks ago. Princeton followed that loss by upsetting Colombia on the road, 80-68, as 5 1/2-point underdogs. Columbia has a better record than Cornell.

Despite that earlier loss to Cornell, the Tigers have dominated the Big Red under coach Mitch Henderson winning 24 of the past 26 meetings.

Defense is the difference here. Princeton ranks 167th defensively giving up 74.9 points a game. The Tigers rank 48th in 3-point defense.

Cornell ranks 360th defensively giving up 89.4 points a game. The Big Red are 352nd in defensive field goal percentage and 364th in 3-point defense. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. 

I want Oakland off a bad, 91-78, road loss to Cleveland State. The Golden Grizzlies were 7 1/2-point favorites in that game. 

The Golden Grizzlies (14-11, 10-4 Horizon League) have followed each of their previous three defeats with a victory and cover.

Oakland is home and high scoring averaging more than 83 points a game. Youngstown State (12-13, 5-9 Horizon League) is below average in many major defensive categories.

The Golden Grizzlies have covered 63 percent of their games this season while the Penguins have covered only 32 percent of their games. 

Time after time BYU has failed to step up in the Big 12 Conference. The Cougars are 1-4 in their last five games. The losses have been to Big 12 heavyweights Oklahoma State, Kansas, Arizona, and Texas Tech.

Now BYU gets the toughest defensive team of all of them - Houston. The Cougars are allowing 60 points per game (5th nationally) with an opponent field goal percentage of 37.8% (17th) and an opponent 3-point percentage of 25.9% (7th).

BYU's conference defensive rating of 111.7 would rank 268th nationally.

I get that Marriott Center is a tough environment. But Houston is road tough. The Cougars rank 25th in forcing turnovers, don't turn the ball over themselves, rebound well and are well-coached. I don't see BYU beating them after failing against the other elite teams in the Big 12. 

It was the upset of the season. Host Portland defeated Gonzaga, 87-80, as a 22 1/2-point underdog this past Wednesday.

Unfortunately for the Pilots they have to play again. That game comes today against Seattle.

It's a monster letdown spot for Portland. The Pilots can't be blamed if they are still in celebration mode.

Before stunning Gonzaga, the Pilots had lost three in a row getting blown out in the previous two games by Washington State and Pacific.

The reality is Portland is 11-14 and in ninth place in the West Coast Conference. The Pilots give up nearly 80 points a game. They rank 315th in 3-point defense and 338th in 3-point offense.

Seattle is 15-9 and ahead of the Pilots in the WCC standings. The Redhawks play much better defense than Portland giving up an average of 67.9 points a game, which ranks 34th. They also are a better 3-point shooting team and defend against the 3-pointer much better than Portland.

No chance Seattle takes Portland lightly either after what the Pilots did to Gonzaga.

Kudos to Belmont for leading the Missouri Valley Conference. But I see the Bruins getting tripped up by Illinois-Chicago on the road here. 

UIC just had its eight-game win streak halted by Murray State on the road, 81-74, this past Tuesday. But the Flames are tough at home where they are 7-3 and averaging 78 points a game. That's three points up from their season average. 

The Flames have held their last four home opponents - all MVC teams - to an average of 61.7 points a game. 

UIC is worth backing as a home 'dog in this range. 

LaSalle is off an upset victory against Dayton last Wednesday. Now the rested Explorers are stepping down in Atlantic 10 Conference class meeting Fordham, which is 1-6 in its last seven games.

The Rams are a terrible offensive team. They rank 314th in scoring, 354th in 3-point shooting and 313th in free throw accuracy.

Fordham relies on an outstanding defense. However, that defense hasn't been very good recently. Fordham is giving up an average of 74.5 points a game during its last six games, which is nine points above its season defensive average.

Points are going to be at a premium with a total this low as both teams are heavily defensive oriented and play at an extremely slow pace.

This is ESPN’s first “Big Monday” of the college basketball season. The network sure picked a good game with top-ranked and unbeaten Arizona at No. 13 BYU.

I predict that by the end of this game the Wildcats will no longer be undefeated.

I base this on a tough scheduling spot for the Wildcats, an electric home crowd for BYU and Arizona's soft Big 12 schedule so far.

BYU is the first KenPom top 40 team the Wildcats have played in conference. Arizona is coming off victories against Cincinnati this past Wednesday and West Virginia this past Saturday. So this is the Wildcats' third game in six days.

The Cougars, by contrast, will be playing for only the second time since Jan. 17. They were home in their last game against Utah this past Saturday.

Arizona's lack of 3-point shooting could prove pivotal. The Wildcats take the fewest 3-pointers in the Big 12 and rank 10th in the league in 3-point accuracy. BYU shoots 40 percent of its field goals from beyond the arc.

It is a big tell that although Indiana State is just 2-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference, the Sycamores opened as a favorite against Drake and early action has been on them.

The spot sets up for Indiana State. The Sycamores have revenge for a 74-72 road loss to Drake from Jan. 4. The Bulldogs also are in a letdown spot off their biggest win of the season beating MVC-leader Murray State in their last game as a home Underdog.

Even with that victory, Drake has a losing record in the MVC. Indiana State has had a number of close losses. The Sycamores have proven themselves with conference wins against Belmont and Illinois State, two teams near the top of the league standings.

Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. 

Look for Ohio to hang in at home against 15-4 Akron in this Mid-American Conference matchup. The Bobcats can't match Akron's explosive offense, but they are a respectable 11-9 and 5-3 in the MAC.

The Zips are just a mediocre defensive team. Ohio averages 78.2 points a game and ranks 63rd in field goal percentage. The Bobcats' scoring average climbs to 82.6 points if you go by their last five games.

Akron is playing its second consecutive road game after beating Buffalo three days ago. Ohio is 8-3 at home. The Bobcats are not going to lack motivation playing at home on a Friday night and on national television with the game being shown on ESPNU.

The Bobcats have two of the better players in the MAC in Jackson Paveletzke and Aidan Hadaway.

Ohio upset Akron at home last season, 84-67. 

Loyola of Chicago hosted Dayton less than two weeks ago and only lost, 70-68. The Ramblers lost by just two points despite only getting five free throw attempts. Dayton was 21 of 25 from the foul line.

The Ramblers trailed George Mason by only two points with 2:02 left in their last game this past Tuesday before losing, 82-74, but covering as 11.5 underdogs.

Dayton is enjoying another strong Atlantic 10 season. I just find this to be too many points. The Flyers have failed to cover the past four times when laying more than seven points. They also have to deal with Loyola center Miles Rubin, who leads the A-10 in blocked shots and ranks 14th nationally. 

Neither team has very good defensive numbers on the season. But what the oddsmaker has overlooked in this America East Conference matchup is the improvement shown by UMass Lowell.

The River Hawks have won three in a row, holding these opponents to a combined average of 67.3 points a game. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

NJIT averages 66 points, which ranks 355th in the nation. The Highlanders shoot 38.3 percent from the field, which ranks 363rd. They also are a well below average defensive rebounding team.

Lowell has the best offensive efficiency in the conference. The River Hawks average 81.6 points a game, which is 15 points more than what the Highlanders average a game. They also are the superior rebounding team.

Baylor is a good team. But the Bears cannot beat elite teams even at home. They just lost, 70-60, hosting Iowa State and now they have Houston.

It wouldn't shock if Iowa State and Houston both ended up in the Final Four. Houston remains elite defensively giving up the third-fewest points per game. The 14-1 Cougars also have been looking better offensively this season averaging more than 77 points a game and ranking 41st in free-throw accuracy.

This isn't a good matchup for Baylor. The Bears like to play fast. Houston plays half court and its disciplined defense controls tempo.

The optics don't look good for Baylor either. Houston has won each of its last 33 games against non-AP-ranked opponents while Baylor has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked opponents. 

I am looking for a strong bounce back from Oklahoma State after the Cowboys suffered an embarrassing, 102-80, road loss to Texas Tech this past Saturday. The Cowboys were 12-1 entering that game. They are 10-0 at home, including an early season win against Texas A&M.

Central Florida is 12-1, enjoying a strong season, too. But it is going to be tough for the Knights to get up for this game after their 81-75 home upset win against Kansas in their Big 12 opener this past Saturday.

Oklahoma State coach Steve Lutz called out his team for its poor defensive showing against Texas Tech. The Cowboys have better defensive numbers than Central Florida and the spot is ripe for them to get a convincing win.

I want the Under going for me in this game.

Northern Iowa gives up the second-fewest points per game in the nation at 57.5. The Panthers rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage defense. They also play extremely slow.

Indiana State has shown defensive improvement and slowed down its tempo. The Sycamores rank 81st in 3-point defense. 

Duquesne has defeated just one winning team and that was Stony Brook. The Dukes are 2-7 ATS. They were crushed by Boise State, 86-64, as a 14-point road 'dog three days ago.

That bodes well for Nevada. The Wolf Pack have stepped up their game going 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 in their last five outings.

The Wolf Pack are hitting 42.7 percent of their 3-pointers during their last seven games. Duquesne ranks 279th in 3-point defense.

Nevada also is a much better free throw shooting team than the Dukes.

Both defenses are not given enough credit with the total listed this high.

Arkansas is holding foes to 71 points a game while ranking 50th in defensive field goal percentage.

Texas Tech gives up only 70 points a game and ranks 62nd in three-point defense. The Under has cashed in six of the Red Raiders' last seven games.

An early start time is another plus for the Under.

Kentucky is explosive, averaging 89.9 points a game. But for a top-20 team, the Wildcats have failed to step up defensively against elite competition. They surrendered 96 points to Louisville and 83 points to Michigan State in the Champions Classic.

Led by star 6-foot-10 freshman Caleb Wilson, North Carolina averages 83.4 points per game and is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Wilson had 24 points in the Tar Heels' impressive, 87-74, win against Kansas. The Jayhawks are a top 25 defensive team, giving up 64.5 points a game.

Kentucky is 5-0 at home in Rupp Arena and just beat Tennessee Tech, 104-54.

This matchup is part of the ACC/SEC Men's Challenge. I see both teams bringing their "A" offenses to the game. 

A neutral site game between two defensive-minded teams with shooting problems and who both play slow put me on the Under in this Princeton versus Bradley tournament matchup in Kissimmee, FL, at the ESPN Events Invitational.

Princeton ranks 346th in field goal percentage. Bradley is 295th in field goal percentage.

The Tigers have played a bunch of teams - Akron, Kansas and Iona to name three - who are strong in transition and like to run. Bradley is not like that. The Braves are a defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference school that does not push tempo.

The Braves are known for their hard-nosed defense under Brian Wardle. Princeton runs a very disciplined and patient offense. The Tigers' offense, though, has been down this season.

Lafayette and Stonehill are a combined 2-9. They each have won one game. But I'm getting involved in the game because I don't see Lafayette justified as a road favorite.

Stonehill has won four consecutive games at home going back to last season. The Skyhawks' lone  home game this season was a 100-48 romp against non-board team Thomas College.

Lafayette struggles on the road and on the glass. The Leopards are 328th in offensive rebounding and rank 282nd in defensive rebounding. Stonehill is consistent on both ends of the glass ranking 162nd in offensive rebounding and 163rd in defensive rebounding.

The Leopards also have trouble scoring, ranking 324th in points per game and 356th in points per possession.

As much as I like and respect Florida, Houston's tenacity and elite defense has me going with the Cougars. 

Houston held the Blue Devils to 40 percent shooting from the floor and only one field goal during the final 10:30 of its dramatic Final Four, 70-67, comeback victory this past Saturday.  Duke averaged 82.7 points and 48.8 percent shooting during the season. Both top-18 marks. 

 Duke averaged 91.7 points during its previous four games before meeting Houston. To be honest, I thought Duke was going to win the NCAA Tournament. 

The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Their offense can look a little disjointed at times, but they ranked No. 2 in the country in 3-point percentage. The Cougars also are a strong rebounding team. They have the Big 12 defensive player of the year, Joseph Tugler. He's 6-foot-8 with a wingspan of a 7-foot-6 player. Tugler has 77 blocks, including four against Duke.

Kelvin Sampson is a Hall of Fame coach, a tremendous defensive tactician. 

Nothing against Florida, but I'm going with Houston since I give the Cougars checkmarks in defense, coaching and 3-point shooting. I can't see them not winning the title after their unbelievable semifinal victory against Duke.

NBA Bonus Play

Pistons minus 7 1/2 hosting Kings

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Checkmark to Houston on defense. Duke, however, is the more complete team, has a size advantage and superstar Cooper Flagg. Those are reasons enough to justify laying these points with the Blue Devils.

Duke has a size advantage in the backcourt - pivotal because Houston relies on its perimeter shooting - and has 7-footer Khaman Maluach inside to dominate both ends in the paint.

The Blue Devils' size was a key in holding Alabama to 65 points in an 85-65 win during their last game. Alabama was the No. 1 scoring team in the nation averaging 91.1 points. Houston averages 17 points fewer per game than Alabama.

I don't see the Cougars being able to keep up with Duke in the scoring column. Not only do the Blue Devils have the magnificent Flagg, but also Tyrese Proctor and a strong bench. Unlike Houston, Duke is equally proficient scoring both inside and outside.

Don't go against North Texas when it comes to the NIT. The Mean Green won the 2023 NIT championship and they've reached the semifinals here against Cal-Irvine.

Cal-Irvine is the superior offensive team. But the Anteaters are going to have problems with North Texas. It's not just that the Mean Green surrender the third-fewest points in the nation and rank in the top-10 in defensive rebounding.

It's that North Texas also plays at the slowest pace. That's going to bother Cal-Irvine. The Anteaters can't match the Mean Green on the boards and their ball-handlers are more sloppy.

Ready or not, we have another college basketball tournament going. It's the inaugural College Basketball Crown being held in Las Vegas. I'm getting involved in this early round game today taking Utah to beat Butler.

I have Utah as the higher power rated team. The Utes hold a defensive and rebounding edge. They also play in the stronger Big 12 Conference.

Butler opened 7-1, but has gone 7-18 during its last 25 games.

Have to go defense in this one. Both Michigan State and Auburn rank in the top-10 in defensive efficiency. The Under has cashed in 10 of Michigan State's last dozen games. The Tigers have gone Under in four of their five postseason games.

Michigan forced 15 Auburn turnovers against the Tigers this past Friday. Michigan State has much better defensive guards than the Wolverines. The Spartans have the front-court depth, too, to keep Auburn star big man Johni Broome from dominating. Broome is the only Auburn player who averages more than 13 points. The Tigers don't have any outstanding scorers if Broome is neutralized. Michigan State's Tom Izzo is an expert at making defensive adjustments.

The Spartans will have to earn their points, too. The Tigers rank in the top-five in blocked shot percentage and are seventh in 3-point defense.

Michigan State has reached the Sweet 16, but the Spartans haven't played their best. They are due for a big game. I see that coming here against a Mississippi team they match up well to.

Mississippi has pulled off upset victories against Iowa State and North Carolina to reach this point. The Rebels are extremely well-coached like the Spartans are. Mississippi is not a strong rebounding team, though, ranking 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC. Michigan State, by contrast, was the No. 2 rebounding team in the Big Ten and eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding.

The Rebels hit 49 percent of their 3-point shots against the Tar Heels and Cyclones going an amazing 19-for-39. That is uncharacteristic of Mississippi. The Rebels are not nearly that good of a 3-point shooting team. They ranked 173rd in 3-point accuracy during the regular season hitting 34.1 percent. Michigan State has the toughest 3-point defense in the country ranking No. 1.

The combination of Michigan State's 3-point defense and rebounding should be enough to derail the Rebels and allow the Spartans to cover this point spread margin. Michigan State is due for a better performance while the Rebels are overdue to cool off from beyond the arc, especially playing this opponent.

Alabama-Birmingham is an underdog worth backing. Not only do the Blazers play in the stronger American Athletic Conference compared to Cal-Irvine, which is in the weak Big West Conference, but Alabama-Birmingham has proved itself on the road.

The Blazers have scored road upset victories against Santa Clara as a 7-point 'dog and against St. Joe's getting six points. Cal Irvine wasn't impressive in beating but failing to cover against Jacksonville State at home, 66-61, in its last NIT game. 

UAB also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. He averages 17.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 blocked shots. He owns the school record for double-doubles. 

The Blazers play fast and are explosive. They are 16th in the nation in scoring at 82.6 points per game. Being on the road hasn't changed this as the Blazers rank 15th in the country in points per possession when playing away. 

Cal Irvine averages nearly seven points fewer per game than UAB, but features the superior defense. Some of that, though, comes from playing in the smallish Big West. UAB has been playing better defense late in winning and covering four of their five postseason games. 

UAB holds a rebounding edge. The Blazers rank in the top-20 in offensive rebounding. Going against UAB is going to prove a real contrast for Cal Irvine. 

The Blazers have enough going to pull the outright upset.

Going in, I liked Cleveland State to win the CBI Tournament and so far nothing that has gone on has changed my mind. The Vikings rolled past Queens University in their tournament opener yesterday breezing to an 88-73 win as a 4 1/2-point favorite.

I don't see today's opponent, Florida Gulf Coast, being any better. The Eagles barely got past Army, 68-65, as a 10 1/2-point favorite in their tournament opener yesterday. That was the fourth time the Eagles failed to cover in their last five games.

Cleveland State is the better scoring team and much superior to Florida Gulf Coast defensively.

This is a question of trust. The Mountain West Conference has had a dismal point spread record in the NCAA Tournament, while the Big Ten Conference is proving how strong it really is going 10-2 SU and ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State with Tom Izzo is one of those Big Ten teams I trust the most. I believe the Spartans match up well to New Mexico. The Spartans have tournament experience having reached at least the second round in 17 of the last 20 NCAA Tournament. 

The Spartans have the superior depth and defense, ranking No. 2 in the country in 3-point defense, and hold a backcourt edge with the necessary defenders to bother Donovan Dent, who the Aggies heavily rely upon.

Michigan State got its kinks out rolling past Bryant, 87-62, two days ago. I'm looking for a better performance from the Spartans. 

New Mexico defeated a disappointing and unimpressive Marquette in the first round. The Lobos don't have the signature victories Michigan State has. I don't believe they can stay within single digits of the Spartans.

Of the many great teams in the SEC this season, Mississippi is one of the least flashy. The Rebels don't get talked about much. Certainly not like Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. 

But this doesn't mean the Rebels aren't dangerous. They have the right mix and coaching to pull the upset against Iowa State. 

Mississippi is a semi-rarity these days for an NCAA Tournament team - a veteran starting lineup consisting of four seniors and a junior. They have leadership, poise and an elite coach in Chris Beard. 

I also believe Iowa State's coach, T.J. Otzelberger, is elite. The Cyclones, though, are the ones laying mid-range points and missing a key injured player in guard Keshon Gibert. He is Iowa State's second-leading scorer at 13.4 points a game and is the team leader in assists. 

The Cyclones were able to easily triumph against Lipscomb in their first-round NCAA Tournament game. Mississippi has better athletes than Lipscomb and can exploit Gilbert's absence with a more swarming defensive style. 

Mississippi's strength is forcing turnovers while ranking in the top-15 in committing the fewest turnovers. That's a winning combination against this opponent.

Only two teams in the nation surrendered fewer points per game than North Texas. The Mean Green haven't given up more than 66 points in a game during their last 15 games.

North Texas, however, ranks 312th in scoring at 68.5 points a game. Arkansas State can handle the Mean Green defensively. The Red Wolves rank among the top 17 teams in the country in both defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

However, facing North Texas' strong defense is going to be cultural shock for the Red Wolves, who are used to a much different tempo playing in the Sun Belt Conference.

This Wisconsin team is like no other in school history. The Badgers used to be all about defense. Greg Gard has broken from that tradition. The Badgers play fast and are not shy about throwing up 3-pointers. Wisconsin ranks 35th in scoring, averaging more than 80 points a game. The Badgers also are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the country. 

BYU is a willing partner to keep a fast, high-scoring pace. The Cougars rank 26th in scoring at 81.4 points a game. They rate 19th in field goal percentage and 39th in free throw accuracy. 

Both teams are below average in 3-point defense.

It's been an up-and-down season for Connecticut. But if the two-time defending champion Huskies are going to get eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, it's going to come from Florida not Oklahoma. 

The Huskies have won and covered their past 12 NCAA Tournament games. Look for that impressive streak to continue against the Sooners, who may be without center Sam Godwin. He's missed the last three games because of a knee injury.

Even with Godwin, the Sooners can't rebound with Connecticut. The Huskies hold a defensive and depth edge, too. 

Connecticut ranks 60th defensively and is the No. 2 defensive rebounding team. Oklahoma rates 269th defensively and is 324th in offensive rebounding. 

The Huskies are healthy, too, unlike the Sooners. 

Connecticut is the more well-rounded team with big edges on defense and on the boards. I'm not going against the Huskies against this opponent.

Yes, Drake plays at a snail's pace. But don't confuse slow tempo with strong defensive field goal percentage. Despite playing in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference, the Bulldogs only rank 225th in defensive field goal percentage.

Missouri plays fast and scores quickly. The Tigers rank ninth in the nation in points averaging 84.5 and fifth-best in offensive efficiency. They also are 21st in shooting percentage.

Drake is highly-accurate, too, ranking 20th in the nation in shooting percentage.

Yale is one of those teams you don't want to meet in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament - especially if you're Texas A&M.

The Aggies are heavily reliant upon second-chance opportunities to get their points because they are such a bad perimeter team. Texas A&M ranks 324th in field goal percentage and 331st in 3-point percentage.

Yale is the wrong opponent for Texas A&M. The well-schooled Bulldogs rate 36th in defensive rebounding and are in the top-20 when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities.

Texas A&M is not in good form either going 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games.

Led by senior guard John Poulakidas, Yale ranks 11th in field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point accuracy.

Don't forget what Yale did last year, upsetting Auburn in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament as a 14-point underdog.

Texas is an Over machine. The Longhorns have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 13 games.

Xavier will do its part in getting this total Over, too. The Musketeers rank 15th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. They also are in the top-10 in free throw accuracy.

The Musketeers have scored at least 76 points in seven of their past eight games. Texas has permitted 76 or more points in 11 of its last dozen games.

Motivation is a huge factor when handicapping first-round NIT games. Samford has it for this matchup. George Mason doesn't.

George Mason went 26-8, including 15-3 in the Atlantic-10 Conference. Yet the Patriots couldn't get a spot in the NCAA Tournament because they lost, 68-63, to VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament finals this past Sunday.

This was a highly-disappointing loss for the Patriots. I don't see them bouncing back on such a short turnaround. The Patriots aren't built to cover big margins either with their extreme slowdown style. They are 0-4 ATS the past four times when laying more than four points.

Samford, on the other hand, is excited to compete having never participated in the NIT before. The Bulldogs want to prove themselves after getting upset by Furman in the quarterfinals of the Southern Conference Tournament.

The Bulldogs aren't nearly as good defensively as George Mason. But they have other factors going for them. Samford ranks 12th in the nation in scoring, averaging 13 more points per game than George Mason. The Bulldogs are an excellent 3-point shooting team and are patient, ranking 29th in the country in assists per game. That's important when going against George Mason's vaunted defense and slow tempo.

So sure their season had ended, some of the Shockers left Wichita State for spring break following the team's quarterfinals loss in the American Athletic Conference Tournament this past Friday.

It was a surprise then for Wichita State when it found out it had made the 32-team NIT field. Now the Shockers have to travel to Stillwater, Okla., to face Oklahoma State. 

This is Wichita State's first postseason appearance in four years. I don't believe the Shockers are ready for the challenge having already thought their season had ended.

Making it worse for the Shockers is Oklahoma State plays at an extremely fast tempo. The Cowboys aren't going to lack motivation having missed out on the postseason last season and being knocked out in the first round of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. 

The Big 12 is superior to the AAC. Wichita State didn't encounter too many up-tempo teams in the ACC. Now the Shockers are on the road against a well-coached aggressive foe that loves to full-court press and plays at a top-15 pace. 

So I don't see the Shockers staying within this number.

Neither of these teams, nor their respective conferences, are impressive. Saint Francis actually has a losing record. But that's not why I favor Alabama State to cover the number against the Red Flash.

Alabama State ranks fifth in the country in plus/minus turnover percentage. St. Francis turns the ball over on nearly 20 percent of its possessions, which rates 321st in turnover percentage.

Not only do the Hornets protect the ball much better than the Red Flash, but they are playing their finest ball. Alabama State is 10-1 in its last 11 games, including winning six in a row.

These two teams are all about offense. I'm not going to go against that in this American Athletic Conference Tournament championship game.

Alabama-Birmingham ranks 16th in the nation in scoring, but is 305th defensively. The Blazers have reached at least 80 points in seven of their last nine games. They have hit better than 47 percent of their field goals during the past three games.

Memphis doesn't lack for scoring either. The Tigers are the 44th-highest scoring team in the country and rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. However, they are 211th defensively.

Love the way Maryland is playing defense. But I'm not so in love with the depth of the Terrapins. However, the Terrapins only had two players log 35 minutes in yesterday's blowout victory against Illinois.

Maryland held the high-scoring Illini to 65 points. The Terrapins have now held their last five opponents to an average of 62.6 points a game.

The teams just met 10 days ago at Michigan and the Terrapins defeated the Wolverines, 71-65. I'm riding Maryland's excellent defensive form.

I'm going to ride Cal Poly here in this Big West Conference Tournament game. The Mustangs own surprising momentum having won five in a row. This includes an impressive, 96-83, upset of third-seeded UC Riverside last night.

Cal Irvine is by far the superior defensive team. However, the Anteaters may be a little rusty having not played in nearly a week.

Cal Poly has the offense to keep this within single digits. The Mustangs rank 25th in the nation in scoring at 81.7 points a game. Their defense has shown improvement down the stretch. Prior to playing UC Riverside, the Mustangs had held their last four opponents to an average of 69.5 points a game.

Not only are Iona and Quinnipiac more defensively inclined, but the venue here for this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament semifinal can not be overlooked. Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is a huge gym, which makes it tough for teams not accustomed to this setting. MAAC teams don't play in huge gyms. 

So it's not a fluke that the Under has covered 69 percent of the time during the past 52 games played there by MAAC teams. 

Expect another Under showing in this matchup.

Iona ranks 290th in scoring, is 324th in field goal percentage and 312th in free throw accuracy. Quinnipiac gives up 71.4 points a game, is a strong defensive rebounding team and ranks 69th in defensive field goal percentage. 

Quinnipiac is 352nd in 3-point shooting and 299th in field goal percentage. Iona has allowed only 60 points during regulation in its past five games if you discount its game against Sacred Heart.

Purdue plays at a very slow pace. USC certainly isn't going to look to push tempo either after getting past Rutgers in double overtime last night.

Each team has similar defensive strengths, which are defending against 3-points and rebounding. Purdue ranks 37th in 3-point defense. USC rates 20th in 3-point road defense. 

Because of the anticipated slow pace and perceived lack of 3-point accuracy, I see this total as being too high.

Asking Oregon to simply win this game is a straight-forward handicap. The Ducks are the better all-around team. They proved that against Indiana nine days ago when they defeated the Hooisers, 73-64, at home. 

Oregon is hot - seven straight victories. The Ducks are a much better free throw shooting team than Indiana. I give check marks, too, to the Ducks both offensively and defensively. They also are well-coached. 

So it's an easy call for me to back Oregon.

There are few sure things. UC Santa Barbara beating Bakersfield is one of them. The Gauchos have won the last 11 meetings.

This includes Santa Barbara's 12-point home win and six-point road win against the Roadrunners this season.

It's not a fluke that Santa Barbara is 19-12, 11-9 in the Big West Conference while the Roadrunners are 14-18 and 8-12 in the conference.

The Gauchos are a much better shooting team than Bakersfield and much superior defensively.

I have Western Kentucky as a far stronger favorite than the point spread indicates in this Conference USA Tournament opener. No, the 17-14 Hilltoppers aren't some great team. But 9-22 Florida International is that bad.

The Panthers just may be the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. They are inferior to Western Kentucky both offensively and defensively.

Florida International is far from being in good form either, covering only one of its last eight games. The Panthers lost 15 of its 18 conference games.

Western Kentucky  just defeated FIU, 76-67, at home this past Thursday. The Hilltoppers were 8-10 in league. They rank in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage.

Don McHenry, an all-around star, gives the Hilltoppers the best player on the court.

No need to overcomplicate things here. Portland State is the superior team. I expect the Vikings to win and cover this Big Sky Conference Tournament game.

Portland State is 19-12, 11-7 in conference compared to Idaho's 13-18 overall record and 8-10 league mark.

The Vikings are on a three-game winning streak. They give up six fewer points per game than Idaho and can take advantage of the Vandals' porous perimeter defense.

Idaho ranks 334th in defensive field goal percentage. Portland State ranks 46th in field goal percentage. 

The Vandals are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.

This is too many points for UCLA to lay in this cross-town long-standing rivalry. The game means far more to USC, which has started to play better. An upset win by the Trojans here secures their place in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

USC rolled past Washington, 92-61, three days ago. That halted a five-game Trojans' losing skid and should restore the team's confidence.

The Trojans are a top-100 scoring team. They've produced 82 or more points in three of their last four games. They are dangerous. Just ask Big Ten leader Michigan State. The Spartans fell to USC, 70-64, early last month.

The Trojans trailed the Bruins by just one point with 96 seconds left in the first matchup this season before losing by six points.

Longwood knocked Winthrop out of the Big South Tournament last year. Look for the Eagles to get their revenge here.

The teams met twice this season. Winthrop won both meetings. The Eagles' average victory margin in the two games was by 22 1/2 points.

Longwood has no momentum going into this game having lost seven of its last nine games while also going 2-7 ATS. The Lancers rank near the bottom in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Winthrop is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation. So expect another Lancers blowout.

This is a tournament game in the Summit League. So expect a lot of points. Just expect more points from North Dakota State.

North Dakota State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting, 36th in scoring 40th in field goal percentage. South Dakota can match North Dakota State's offensive firepower, but plays much worse defense. South Dakota gives up nine more points per game than North Dakota State. The Coyotes are 361st in scoring defense, 355th in defensive rebounding and 342nd in points per possession allowed.

The Bison beat South Dakota in both regular-season meetings, 82-76, at home on Feb. 26 and buried the Coyotes on the road, 103-77, on Jan. 18.

North Dakota State enters the tournament winning four of its last five games, while South Dakota has a losing record in its past five games.

It's easy to overlook Iowa. The Hawkeyes never were able to recover after losing their star big man, Owen Freeman, for the season with a finger injury. Iowa is 3-10 in its last 13 games.

But Michigan State won't be looking past the Hawkeyes despite Iowa's dismal record. It's not just because the Spartans clinch an outright Big Ten Conference title with a win. No, it's more than that.

Tom Izzo has a history of getting the Spartans to peak right before tournament time. That's the case again this season with Michigan State winning and covering its last five games. Izzo is putting a great deal of emphasis on this matchup remembering a home loss to Iowa last season and what happened to his team the last time they visited Iowa. The Spartans blew a 13-point lead with 1:34 left, losing in overtime.

That marked only the fourth time in Division I history a team lost when leading by at least 11 points with 55 seconds to play in regulation.  

This is what Michigan State center Carson Cooper told the Detroit newspapers about this game: "I think for us right now, the attention to detail is probably at an all-time high. Especially Iowa, you can't look past them even though they're not playing great basketball right now, because of what they've been able to do with us the last couple of years. It really makes it personal for us."

Iowa is a top-30 scoring and 3-point shooting team. However, the Hawkeyes rank 340th defensively, surrendering nearly 80 points a game. They are near the bottom of the Big Ten standings with a 6-12 league mark. Michigan State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point defense.

I disagree with the early marketplace activity that has made Stanford road chalk against Notre Dame. 

This is a sell-high on Stanford, buy-low spot on Notre Dame. The Cardinal is off a 3-0 homestand. However, Stanford has lost six of its past seven road games. The Cardinal is averaging just 65 points a game during their past six away contests. This also is their first road matchup since Feb. 15. So there's going to be an adjustment period.

Stanford is a solid shooting team. Notre Dame, though, ranks 42nd in defensive rebounding and can limit Stanford's scoring opportunities.  
The Irish return home following a 74-71 road loss to Wake Forest and an 83-68 away defeat to Clemson. Note, however, Stanford lost at Wake Forest, 80-67, and lost at Clemson, 85-71. 

Notre Dame should be up for this home matchup. I see the Irish getting the job done.

I'm surprised this line opened where it did because I consider New Mexico to be far superior to Nevada. The Lobos are 23-6 and have won nine of their last 11 games. If the Lobos win this game, they earn at least a share of their first Mountain West Conference regular-season title since 2012-13. So New Mexico certainly is going to have incentive.

Nevada is 16-13 and ranks seventh in the Mountain West with an 8-10 league mark. The Wolf Pack have lost three of their last four games. They are off a terrible loss to UNLV  this past Friday. 

The Wolf Pack haven't beaten a top-five Mountain West team all season. 

The Lobos outscore the Wolf Pack by 10 points a game. They also are much better on the boards. New Mexico has the best guard on the floor in Donovan Dent and the best big man in Nelly Junior Joseph. 

New Mexico has won the last three in this series. Nevada isn't expected to have two of its rotation players, Tre Coleman and Daniel Foster.