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Loyola of Chicago hosted Dayton less than two weeks ago and only lost, 70-68. The Ramblers lost by just two points despite only getting five free throw attempts. Dayton was 21 of 25 from the foul line.

The Ramblers trailed George Mason by only two points with 2:02 left in their last game this past Tuesday before losing, 82-74, but covering as 11.5 underdogs.

Dayton is enjoying another strong Atlantic 10 season. I just find this to be too many points. The Flyers have failed to cover the past four times when laying more than seven points. They also have to deal with Loyola center Miles Rubin, who leads the A-10 in blocked shots and ranks 14th nationally. 

Neither team has very good defensive numbers on the season. But what the oddsmaker has overlooked in this America East Conference matchup is the improvement shown by UMass Lowell.

The River Hawks have won three in a row, holding these opponents to a combined average of 67.3 points a game. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

NJIT averages 66 points, which ranks 355th in the nation. The Highlanders shoot 38.3 percent from the field, which ranks 363rd. They also are a well below average defensive rebounding team.

Lowell has the best offensive efficiency in the conference. The River Hawks average 81.6 points a game, which is 15 points more than what the Highlanders average a game. They also are the superior rebounding team.

Baylor is a good team. But the Bears cannot beat elite teams even at home. They just lost, 70-60, hosting Iowa State and now they have Houston.

It wouldn't shock if Iowa State and Houston both ended up in the Final Four. Houston remains elite defensively giving up the third-fewest points per game. The 14-1 Cougars also have been looking better offensively this season averaging more than 77 points a game and ranking 41st in free-throw accuracy.

This isn't a good matchup for Baylor. The Bears like to play fast. Houston plays half court and its disciplined defense controls tempo.

The optics don't look good for Baylor either. Houston has won each of its last 33 games against non-AP-ranked opponents while Baylor has lost each of its last eight games against AP-ranked opponents. 

I am looking for a strong bounce back from Oklahoma State after the Cowboys suffered an embarrassing, 102-80, road loss to Texas Tech this past Saturday. The Cowboys were 12-1 entering that game. They are 10-0 at home, including an early season win against Texas A&M.

Central Florida is 12-1, enjoying a strong season, too. But it is going to be tough for the Knights to get up for this game after their 81-75 home upset win against Kansas in their Big 12 opener this past Saturday.

Oklahoma State coach Steve Lutz called out his team for its poor defensive showing against Texas Tech. The Cowboys have better defensive numbers than Central Florida and the spot is ripe for them to get a convincing win.

I want the Under going for me in this game.

Northern Iowa gives up the second-fewest points per game in the nation at 57.5. The Panthers rank fifth nationally in field goal percentage defense. They also play extremely slow.

Indiana State has shown defensive improvement and slowed down its tempo. The Sycamores rank 81st in 3-point defense. 

Duquesne has defeated just one winning team and that was Stony Brook. The Dukes are 2-7 ATS. They were crushed by Boise State, 86-64, as a 14-point road 'dog three days ago.

That bodes well for Nevada. The Wolf Pack have stepped up their game going 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 in their last five outings.

The Wolf Pack are hitting 42.7 percent of their 3-pointers during their last seven games. Duquesne ranks 279th in 3-point defense.

Nevada also is a much better free throw shooting team than the Dukes.

Both defenses are not given enough credit with the total listed this high.

Arkansas is holding foes to 71 points a game while ranking 50th in defensive field goal percentage.

Texas Tech gives up only 70 points a game and ranks 62nd in three-point defense. The Under has cashed in six of the Red Raiders' last seven games.

An early start time is another plus for the Under.

Kentucky is explosive, averaging 89.9 points a game. But for a top-20 team, the Wildcats have failed to step up defensively against elite competition. They surrendered 96 points to Louisville and 83 points to Michigan State in the Champions Classic.

Led by star 6-foot-10 freshman Caleb Wilson, North Carolina averages 83.4 points per game and is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Wilson had 24 points in the Tar Heels' impressive, 87-74, win against Kansas. The Jayhawks are a top 25 defensive team, giving up 64.5 points a game.

Kentucky is 5-0 at home in Rupp Arena and just beat Tennessee Tech, 104-54.

This matchup is part of the ACC/SEC Men's Challenge. I see both teams bringing their "A" offenses to the game. 

A neutral site game between two defensive-minded teams with shooting problems and who both play slow put me on the Under in this Princeton versus Bradley tournament matchup in Kissimmee, FL, at the ESPN Events Invitational.

Princeton ranks 346th in field goal percentage. Bradley is 295th in field goal percentage.

The Tigers have played a bunch of teams - Akron, Kansas and Iona to name three - who are strong in transition and like to run. Bradley is not like that. The Braves are a defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference school that does not push tempo.

The Braves are known for their hard-nosed defense under Brian Wardle. Princeton runs a very disciplined and patient offense. The Tigers' offense, though, has been down this season.

Lafayette and Stonehill are a combined 2-9. They each have won one game. But I'm getting involved in the game because I don't see Lafayette justified as a road favorite.

Stonehill has won four consecutive games at home going back to last season. The Skyhawks' lone  home game this season was a 100-48 romp against non-board team Thomas College.

Lafayette struggles on the road and on the glass. The Leopards are 328th in offensive rebounding and rank 282nd in defensive rebounding. Stonehill is consistent on both ends of the glass ranking 162nd in offensive rebounding and 163rd in defensive rebounding.

The Leopards also have trouble scoring, ranking 324th in points per game and 356th in points per possession.

As much as I like and respect Florida, Houston's tenacity and elite defense has me going with the Cougars. 

Houston held the Blue Devils to 40 percent shooting from the floor and only one field goal during the final 10:30 of its dramatic Final Four, 70-67, comeback victory this past Saturday.  Duke averaged 82.7 points and 48.8 percent shooting during the season. Both top-18 marks. 

 Duke averaged 91.7 points during its previous four games before meeting Houston. To be honest, I thought Duke was going to win the NCAA Tournament. 

The Cougars are the best defensive team in the country. Their offense can look a little disjointed at times, but they ranked No. 2 in the country in 3-point percentage. The Cougars also are a strong rebounding team. They have the Big 12 defensive player of the year, Joseph Tugler. He's 6-foot-8 with a wingspan of a 7-foot-6 player. Tugler has 77 blocks, including four against Duke.

Kelvin Sampson is a Hall of Fame coach, a tremendous defensive tactician. 

Nothing against Florida, but I'm going with Houston since I give the Cougars checkmarks in defense, coaching and 3-point shooting. I can't see them not winning the title after their unbelievable semifinal victory against Duke.

NBA Bonus Play

Pistons minus 7 1/2 hosting Kings

Detroit has been special all season in qualifying for the playoffs for the first time since 2019. The spot here sets up for the Pistons to crush the visiting Kings.

The Pistons are off a home loss to the Grizzlies from this past Saturday. They did get their superstar, Cade Cunningham, back for that game, though, after Cunningham had missed the previous six games with a calf strain. Detroit is 1-3 in its last four games. The Pistons won't lack motivation. The last time they had a 1-4 run was back in early December.

The Kings are off a huge road upset win against the Cavaliers last night. All five of Sacramento's starters logged at least 40 minutes in that victory. This is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip for the Kings and their fourth game in six days. That's a rough stretch, especially this late in the season.

I don't see anything left in the Kings' tank for this one.

Checkmark to Houston on defense. Duke, however, is the more complete team, has a size advantage and superstar Cooper Flagg. Those are reasons enough to justify laying these points with the Blue Devils.

Duke has a size advantage in the backcourt - pivotal because Houston relies on its perimeter shooting - and has 7-footer Khaman Maluach inside to dominate both ends in the paint.

The Blue Devils' size was a key in holding Alabama to 65 points in an 85-65 win during their last game. Alabama was the No. 1 scoring team in the nation averaging 91.1 points. Houston averages 17 points fewer per game than Alabama.

I don't see the Cougars being able to keep up with Duke in the scoring column. Not only do the Blue Devils have the magnificent Flagg, but also Tyrese Proctor and a strong bench. Unlike Houston, Duke is equally proficient scoring both inside and outside.

Don't go against North Texas when it comes to the NIT. The Mean Green won the 2023 NIT championship and they've reached the semifinals here against Cal-Irvine.

Cal-Irvine is the superior offensive team. But the Anteaters are going to have problems with North Texas. It's not just that the Mean Green surrender the third-fewest points in the nation and rank in the top-10 in defensive rebounding.

It's that North Texas also plays at the slowest pace. That's going to bother Cal-Irvine. The Anteaters can't match the Mean Green on the boards and their ball-handlers are more sloppy.

Ready or not, we have another college basketball tournament going. It's the inaugural College Basketball Crown being held in Las Vegas. I'm getting involved in this early round game today taking Utah to beat Butler.

I have Utah as the higher power rated team. The Utes hold a defensive and rebounding edge. They also play in the stronger Big 12 Conference.

Butler opened 7-1, but has gone 7-18 during its last 25 games.

Have to go defense in this one. Both Michigan State and Auburn rank in the top-10 in defensive efficiency. The Under has cashed in 10 of Michigan State's last dozen games. The Tigers have gone Under in four of their five postseason games.

Michigan forced 15 Auburn turnovers against the Tigers this past Friday. Michigan State has much better defensive guards than the Wolverines. The Spartans have the front-court depth, too, to keep Auburn star big man Johni Broome from dominating. Broome is the only Auburn player who averages more than 13 points. The Tigers don't have any outstanding scorers if Broome is neutralized. Michigan State's Tom Izzo is an expert at making defensive adjustments.

The Spartans will have to earn their points, too. The Tigers rank in the top-five in blocked shot percentage and are seventh in 3-point defense.

Michigan State has reached the Sweet 16, but the Spartans haven't played their best. They are due for a big game. I see that coming here against a Mississippi team they match up well to.

Mississippi has pulled off upset victories against Iowa State and North Carolina to reach this point. The Rebels are extremely well-coached like the Spartans are. Mississippi is not a strong rebounding team, though, ranking 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC. Michigan State, by contrast, was the No. 2 rebounding team in the Big Ten and eighth in the nation in offensive rebounding.

The Rebels hit 49 percent of their 3-point shots against the Tar Heels and Cyclones going an amazing 19-for-39. That is uncharacteristic of Mississippi. The Rebels are not nearly that good of a 3-point shooting team. They ranked 173rd in 3-point accuracy during the regular season hitting 34.1 percent. Michigan State has the toughest 3-point defense in the country ranking No. 1.

The combination of Michigan State's 3-point defense and rebounding should be enough to derail the Rebels and allow the Spartans to cover this point spread margin. Michigan State is due for a better performance while the Rebels are overdue to cool off from beyond the arc, especially playing this opponent.

Alabama-Birmingham is an underdog worth backing. Not only do the Blazers play in the stronger American Athletic Conference compared to Cal-Irvine, which is in the weak Big West Conference, but Alabama-Birmingham has proved itself on the road.

The Blazers have scored road upset victories against Santa Clara as a 7-point 'dog and against St. Joe's getting six points. Cal Irvine wasn't impressive in beating but failing to cover against Jacksonville State at home, 66-61, in its last NIT game. 

UAB also has the best player on the court in 6-foot-9 Yaxel Lendeborg. He averages 17.8 points, 11.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.8 blocked shots. He owns the school record for double-doubles. 

The Blazers play fast and are explosive. They are 16th in the nation in scoring at 82.6 points per game. Being on the road hasn't changed this as the Blazers rank 15th in the country in points per possession when playing away. 

Cal Irvine averages nearly seven points fewer per game than UAB, but features the superior defense. Some of that, though, comes from playing in the smallish Big West. UAB has been playing better defense late in winning and covering four of their five postseason games. 

UAB holds a rebounding edge. The Blazers rank in the top-20 in offensive rebounding. Going against UAB is going to prove a real contrast for Cal Irvine. 

The Blazers have enough going to pull the outright upset.

Going in, I liked Cleveland State to win the CBI Tournament and so far nothing that has gone on has changed my mind. The Vikings rolled past Queens University in their tournament opener yesterday breezing to an 88-73 win as a 4 1/2-point favorite.

I don't see today's opponent, Florida Gulf Coast, being any better. The Eagles barely got past Army, 68-65, as a 10 1/2-point favorite in their tournament opener yesterday. That was the fourth time the Eagles failed to cover in their last five games.

Cleveland State is the better scoring team and much superior to Florida Gulf Coast defensively.

This is a question of trust. The Mountain West Conference has had a dismal point spread record in the NCAA Tournament, while the Big Ten Conference is proving how strong it really is going 10-2 SU and ATS so far in the NCAA Tournament.

Michigan State with Tom Izzo is one of those Big Ten teams I trust the most. I believe the Spartans match up well to New Mexico. The Spartans have tournament experience having reached at least the second round in 17 of the last 20 NCAA Tournament. 

The Spartans have the superior depth and defense, ranking No. 2 in the country in 3-point defense, and hold a backcourt edge with the necessary defenders to bother Donovan Dent, who the Aggies heavily rely upon.

Michigan State got its kinks out rolling past Bryant, 87-62, two days ago. I'm looking for a better performance from the Spartans. 

New Mexico defeated a disappointing and unimpressive Marquette in the first round. The Lobos don't have the signature victories Michigan State has. I don't believe they can stay within single digits of the Spartans.

Of the many great teams in the SEC this season, Mississippi is one of the least flashy. The Rebels don't get talked about much. Certainly not like Auburn, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. 

But this doesn't mean the Rebels aren't dangerous. They have the right mix and coaching to pull the upset against Iowa State. 

Mississippi is a semi-rarity these days for an NCAA Tournament team - a veteran starting lineup consisting of four seniors and a junior. They have leadership, poise and an elite coach in Chris Beard. 

I also believe Iowa State's coach, T.J. Otzelberger, is elite. The Cyclones, though, are the ones laying mid-range points and missing a key injured player in guard Keshon Gibert. He is Iowa State's second-leading scorer at 13.4 points a game and is the team leader in assists. 

The Cyclones were able to easily triumph against Lipscomb in their first-round NCAA Tournament game. Mississippi has better athletes than Lipscomb and can exploit Gilbert's absence with a more swarming defensive style. 

Mississippi's strength is forcing turnovers while ranking in the top-15 in committing the fewest turnovers. That's a winning combination against this opponent.

Only two teams in the nation surrendered fewer points per game than North Texas. The Mean Green haven't given up more than 66 points in a game during their last 15 games.

North Texas, however, ranks 312th in scoring at 68.5 points a game. Arkansas State can handle the Mean Green defensively. The Red Wolves rank among the top 17 teams in the country in both defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense.

However, facing North Texas' strong defense is going to be cultural shock for the Red Wolves, who are used to a much different tempo playing in the Sun Belt Conference.

This Wisconsin team is like no other in school history. The Badgers used to be all about defense. Greg Gard has broken from that tradition. The Badgers play fast and are not shy about throwing up 3-pointers. Wisconsin ranks 35th in scoring, averaging more than 80 points a game. The Badgers also are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the country. 

BYU is a willing partner to keep a fast, high-scoring pace. The Cougars rank 26th in scoring at 81.4 points a game. They rate 19th in field goal percentage and 39th in free throw accuracy. 

Both teams are below average in 3-point defense.

It's been an up-and-down season for Connecticut. But if the two-time defending champion Huskies are going to get eliminated from the NCAA Tournament, it's going to come from Florida not Oklahoma. 

The Huskies have won and covered their past 12 NCAA Tournament games. Look for that impressive streak to continue against the Sooners, who may be without center Sam Godwin. He's missed the last three games because of a knee injury.

Even with Godwin, the Sooners can't rebound with Connecticut. The Huskies hold a defensive and depth edge, too. 

Connecticut ranks 60th defensively and is the No. 2 defensive rebounding team. Oklahoma rates 269th defensively and is 324th in offensive rebounding. 

The Huskies are healthy, too, unlike the Sooners. 

Connecticut is the more well-rounded team with big edges on defense and on the boards. I'm not going against the Huskies against this opponent.

Yes, Drake plays at a snail's pace. But don't confuse slow tempo with strong defensive field goal percentage. Despite playing in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference, the Bulldogs only rank 225th in defensive field goal percentage.

Missouri plays fast and scores quickly. The Tigers rank ninth in the nation in points averaging 84.5 and fifth-best in offensive efficiency. They also are 21st in shooting percentage.

Drake is highly-accurate, too, ranking 20th in the nation in shooting percentage.

Yale is one of those teams you don't want to meet in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament - especially if you're Texas A&M.

The Aggies are heavily reliant upon second-chance opportunities to get their points because they are such a bad perimeter team. Texas A&M ranks 324th in field goal percentage and 331st in 3-point percentage.

Yale is the wrong opponent for Texas A&M. The well-schooled Bulldogs rate 36th in defensive rebounding and are in the top-20 when it comes to preventing second-chance opportunities.

Texas A&M is not in good form either going 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games.

Led by senior guard John Poulakidas, Yale ranks 11th in field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point accuracy.

Don't forget what Yale did last year, upsetting Auburn in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament as a 14-point underdog.

Texas is an Over machine. The Longhorns have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 13 games.

Xavier will do its part in getting this total Over, too. The Musketeers rank 15th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. They also are in the top-10 in free throw accuracy.

The Musketeers have scored at least 76 points in seven of their past eight games. Texas has permitted 76 or more points in 11 of its last dozen games.

Motivation is a huge factor when handicapping first-round NIT games. Samford has it for this matchup. George Mason doesn't.

George Mason went 26-8, including 15-3 in the Atlantic-10 Conference. Yet the Patriots couldn't get a spot in the NCAA Tournament because they lost, 68-63, to VCU in the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament finals this past Sunday.

This was a highly-disappointing loss for the Patriots. I don't see them bouncing back on such a short turnaround. The Patriots aren't built to cover big margins either with their extreme slowdown style. They are 0-4 ATS the past four times when laying more than four points.

Samford, on the other hand, is excited to compete having never participated in the NIT before. The Bulldogs want to prove themselves after getting upset by Furman in the quarterfinals of the Southern Conference Tournament.

The Bulldogs aren't nearly as good defensively as George Mason. But they have other factors going for them. Samford ranks 12th in the nation in scoring, averaging 13 more points per game than George Mason. The Bulldogs are an excellent 3-point shooting team and are patient, ranking 29th in the country in assists per game. That's important when going against George Mason's vaunted defense and slow tempo.

So sure their season had ended, some of the Shockers left Wichita State for spring break following the team's quarterfinals loss in the American Athletic Conference Tournament this past Friday.

It was a surprise then for Wichita State when it found out it had made the 32-team NIT field. Now the Shockers have to travel to Stillwater, Okla., to face Oklahoma State. 

This is Wichita State's first postseason appearance in four years. I don't believe the Shockers are ready for the challenge having already thought their season had ended.

Making it worse for the Shockers is Oklahoma State plays at an extremely fast tempo. The Cowboys aren't going to lack motivation having missed out on the postseason last season and being knocked out in the first round of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. 

The Big 12 is superior to the AAC. Wichita State didn't encounter too many up-tempo teams in the ACC. Now the Shockers are on the road against a well-coached aggressive foe that loves to full-court press and plays at a top-15 pace. 

So I don't see the Shockers staying within this number.

Neither of these teams, nor their respective conferences, are impressive. Saint Francis actually has a losing record. But that's not why I favor Alabama State to cover the number against the Red Flash.

Alabama State ranks fifth in the country in plus/minus turnover percentage. St. Francis turns the ball over on nearly 20 percent of its possessions, which rates 321st in turnover percentage.

Not only do the Hornets protect the ball much better than the Red Flash, but they are playing their finest ball. Alabama State is 10-1 in its last 11 games, including winning six in a row.

These two teams are all about offense. I'm not going to go against that in this American Athletic Conference Tournament championship game.

Alabama-Birmingham ranks 16th in the nation in scoring, but is 305th defensively. The Blazers have reached at least 80 points in seven of their last nine games. They have hit better than 47 percent of their field goals during the past three games.

Memphis doesn't lack for scoring either. The Tigers are the 44th-highest scoring team in the country and rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. However, they are 211th defensively.

Love the way Maryland is playing defense. But I'm not so in love with the depth of the Terrapins. However, the Terrapins only had two players log 35 minutes in yesterday's blowout victory against Illinois.

Maryland held the high-scoring Illini to 65 points. The Terrapins have now held their last five opponents to an average of 62.6 points a game.

The teams just met 10 days ago at Michigan and the Terrapins defeated the Wolverines, 71-65. I'm riding Maryland's excellent defensive form.

I'm going to ride Cal Poly here in this Big West Conference Tournament game. The Mustangs own surprising momentum having won five in a row. This includes an impressive, 96-83, upset of third-seeded UC Riverside last night.

Cal Irvine is by far the superior defensive team. However, the Anteaters may be a little rusty having not played in nearly a week.

Cal Poly has the offense to keep this within single digits. The Mustangs rank 25th in the nation in scoring at 81.7 points a game. Their defense has shown improvement down the stretch. Prior to playing UC Riverside, the Mustangs had held their last four opponents to an average of 69.5 points a game.

Not only are Iona and Quinnipiac more defensively inclined, but the venue here for this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament semifinal can not be overlooked. Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is a huge gym, which makes it tough for teams not accustomed to this setting. MAAC teams don't play in huge gyms. 

So it's not a fluke that the Under has covered 69 percent of the time during the past 52 games played there by MAAC teams. 

Expect another Under showing in this matchup.

Iona ranks 290th in scoring, is 324th in field goal percentage and 312th in free throw accuracy. Quinnipiac gives up 71.4 points a game, is a strong defensive rebounding team and ranks 69th in defensive field goal percentage. 

Quinnipiac is 352nd in 3-point shooting and 299th in field goal percentage. Iona has allowed only 60 points during regulation in its past five games if you discount its game against Sacred Heart.

Purdue plays at a very slow pace. USC certainly isn't going to look to push tempo either after getting past Rutgers in double overtime last night.

Each team has similar defensive strengths, which are defending against 3-points and rebounding. Purdue ranks 37th in 3-point defense. USC rates 20th in 3-point road defense. 

Because of the anticipated slow pace and perceived lack of 3-point accuracy, I see this total as being too high.

Asking Oregon to simply win this game is a straight-forward handicap. The Ducks are the better all-around team. They proved that against Indiana nine days ago when they defeated the Hooisers, 73-64, at home. 

Oregon is hot - seven straight victories. The Ducks are a much better free throw shooting team than Indiana. I give check marks, too, to the Ducks both offensively and defensively. They also are well-coached. 

So it's an easy call for me to back Oregon.

There are few sure things. UC Santa Barbara beating Bakersfield is one of them. The Gauchos have won the last 11 meetings.

This includes Santa Barbara's 12-point home win and six-point road win against the Roadrunners this season.

It's not a fluke that Santa Barbara is 19-12, 11-9 in the Big West Conference while the Roadrunners are 14-18 and 8-12 in the conference.

The Gauchos are a much better shooting team than Bakersfield and much superior defensively.

I have Western Kentucky as a far stronger favorite than the point spread indicates in this Conference USA Tournament opener. No, the 17-14 Hilltoppers aren't some great team. But 9-22 Florida International is that bad.

The Panthers just may be the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. They are inferior to Western Kentucky both offensively and defensively.

Florida International is far from being in good form either, covering only one of its last eight games. The Panthers lost 15 of its 18 conference games.

Western Kentucky  just defeated FIU, 76-67, at home this past Thursday. The Hilltoppers were 8-10 in league. They rank in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage.

Don McHenry, an all-around star, gives the Hilltoppers the best player on the court.

No need to overcomplicate things here. Portland State is the superior team. I expect the Vikings to win and cover this Big Sky Conference Tournament game.

Portland State is 19-12, 11-7 in conference compared to Idaho's 13-18 overall record and 8-10 league mark.

The Vikings are on a three-game winning streak. They give up six fewer points per game than Idaho and can take advantage of the Vandals' porous perimeter defense.

Idaho ranks 334th in defensive field goal percentage. Portland State ranks 46th in field goal percentage. 

The Vandals are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.

This is too many points for UCLA to lay in this cross-town long-standing rivalry. The game means far more to USC, which has started to play better. An upset win by the Trojans here secures their place in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

USC rolled past Washington, 92-61, three days ago. That halted a five-game Trojans' losing skid and should restore the team's confidence.

The Trojans are a top-100 scoring team. They've produced 82 or more points in three of their last four games. They are dangerous. Just ask Big Ten leader Michigan State. The Spartans fell to USC, 70-64, early last month.

The Trojans trailed the Bruins by just one point with 96 seconds left in the first matchup this season before losing by six points.

Longwood knocked Winthrop out of the Big South Tournament last year. Look for the Eagles to get their revenge here.

The teams met twice this season. Winthrop won both meetings. The Eagles' average victory margin in the two games was by 22 1/2 points.

Longwood has no momentum going into this game having lost seven of its last nine games while also going 2-7 ATS. The Lancers rank near the bottom in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Winthrop is the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation. So expect another Lancers blowout.

This is a tournament game in the Summit League. So expect a lot of points. Just expect more points from North Dakota State.

North Dakota State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point shooting, 36th in scoring 40th in field goal percentage. South Dakota can match North Dakota State's offensive firepower, but plays much worse defense. South Dakota gives up nine more points per game than North Dakota State. The Coyotes are 361st in scoring defense, 355th in defensive rebounding and 342nd in points per possession allowed.

The Bison beat South Dakota in both regular-season meetings, 82-76, at home on Feb. 26 and buried the Coyotes on the road, 103-77, on Jan. 18.

North Dakota State enters the tournament winning four of its last five games, while South Dakota has a losing record in its past five games.

It's easy to overlook Iowa. The Hawkeyes never were able to recover after losing their star big man, Owen Freeman, for the season with a finger injury. Iowa is 3-10 in its last 13 games.

But Michigan State won't be looking past the Hawkeyes despite Iowa's dismal record. It's not just because the Spartans clinch an outright Big Ten Conference title with a win. No, it's more than that.

Tom Izzo has a history of getting the Spartans to peak right before tournament time. That's the case again this season with Michigan State winning and covering its last five games. Izzo is putting a great deal of emphasis on this matchup remembering a home loss to Iowa last season and what happened to his team the last time they visited Iowa. The Spartans blew a 13-point lead with 1:34 left, losing in overtime.

That marked only the fourth time in Division I history a team lost when leading by at least 11 points with 55 seconds to play in regulation.  

This is what Michigan State center Carson Cooper told the Detroit newspapers about this game: "I think for us right now, the attention to detail is probably at an all-time high. Especially Iowa, you can't look past them even though they're not playing great basketball right now, because of what they've been able to do with us the last couple of years. It really makes it personal for us."

Iowa is a top-30 scoring and 3-point shooting team. However, the Hawkeyes rank 340th defensively, surrendering nearly 80 points a game. They are near the bottom of the Big Ten standings with a 6-12 league mark. Michigan State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point defense.

I disagree with the early marketplace activity that has made Stanford road chalk against Notre Dame. 

This is a sell-high on Stanford, buy-low spot on Notre Dame. The Cardinal is off a 3-0 homestand. However, Stanford has lost six of its past seven road games. The Cardinal is averaging just 65 points a game during their past six away contests. This also is their first road matchup since Feb. 15. So there's going to be an adjustment period.

Stanford is a solid shooting team. Notre Dame, though, ranks 42nd in defensive rebounding and can limit Stanford's scoring opportunities.  
The Irish return home following a 74-71 road loss to Wake Forest and an 83-68 away defeat to Clemson. Note, however, Stanford lost at Wake Forest, 80-67, and lost at Clemson, 85-71. 

Notre Dame should be up for this home matchup. I see the Irish getting the job done.

I'm surprised this line opened where it did because I consider New Mexico to be far superior to Nevada. The Lobos are 23-6 and have won nine of their last 11 games. If the Lobos win this game, they earn at least a share of their first Mountain West Conference regular-season title since 2012-13. So New Mexico certainly is going to have incentive.

Nevada is 16-13 and ranks seventh in the Mountain West with an 8-10 league mark. The Wolf Pack have lost three of their last four games. They are off a terrible loss to UNLV  this past Friday. 

The Wolf Pack haven't beaten a top-five Mountain West team all season. 

The Lobos outscore the Wolf Pack by 10 points a game. They also are much better on the boards. New Mexico has the best guard on the floor in Donovan Dent and the best big man in Nelly Junior Joseph. 

New Mexico has won the last three in this series. Nevada isn't expected to have two of its rotation players, Tre Coleman and Daniel Foster.

North Texas gives up the second-fewest points per game in the country. But the Mean Green already has clinched a double bye for the AAC Tournament and doesn't score enough to lay this many points against a Wichita State that has been playing well.

The Shockers are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They average six more points per game than North Texas.

The Mean Green defeated Wichita State, 58-54, when the teams met on Jan. 29. The Shockers only lost by four despite Xavier Bell, their leading scorer at 15.2 points a game, missing 13 of 17 shots from the field.

Now that the calendar has hit the magic month of March, powerful second-ranked Duke is thinking about down the road with the ACC Tournament and March Madness. This is the Blue Devils' second-to-last home game. I don't see their focus and motivation being fully there.

Duke has to be satisfied to follow up a loss to Clemson with five straight blowout victories. I understand there's a huge talent gap between the two teams. But Florida State is playing hard for Leonard Hamilton, in his final season. The 15-12 Seminoles are playing better in their past six games. An upset win against Duke would be the highlight of their season and a great going away present for Hamilton.

During this span, Florida State beat Notre Dame and upset Wake Forest on the road, covered at Louisville and played better against North Carolina than the final score of 96-85 showed. Malique Ewin, the Seminoles' leading rebounder and shot blocker and second top scorer, had to leave that game with foot soreness. He should play here having had five days of rest. He is the second-best offensive rebounder in the ACC.

Senior Jamir Watkins, the fifth-leading scorer in the ACC, gives the Seminoles that needed star guard to hang against the Blue Devils.

Cincinnati is in good enough current form and its 24th-ranked defense is strong enough to hang within this number against Houston. The Bearcats have either won or pushed on the point spread in their last seven games. They are giving up just 64 points per game in their last three games.

Houston has failed to reach 70 points in three of its past four games, including the last two.

Nevada has defeated UNLV during the past three meetings. This includes a 71-65 victory at home on Feb. 1.

The Rebels had their leading scorer and assists leader, Dedan Thomas Jr., for that game. But Thomas has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury and isn't expected to play here. UNLV is thin in the backcourt as another of its guards, Brooklyn Hicks, might not play either because of a leg injury.

This is a step-up game for the Rebels after beating San Jose State in their last game. They lost their other game without Thomas at home to Colorado State, 61-53, six days ago.

Nevada ranks 23rd in field goal percentage. The Wolf Pack haven't been good at the free throw line, though. They might have solved that issue by making 26-of-31 free throws for 84 percent in their last game, an 84-61 home win against Wyoming this past Tuesday.

Low-scoring total here, but it makes sense. Lafayette has held seven of its last nine opponents below 70 points. The Ragin' Cajuns' defensive strength is 3-point defense. South Alabama is an outside shooting team.

South Alabama allows only 65 points a game. The Jaguars rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Lafayette ranks 343rd in scoring and is 355th in field goal percentage. The Ragin' Cajuns also rate among the worst in offensive rebounding.

The two teams met four weeks ago and South Alabama won, 62-58. And that game went into overtime.

Coastal Carolina doesn't have a player averaging more than 12.7 points a game. It's easy to see why the Chanticleers are last in the Sun Belt Conference while losing 13 of their past 14 games. They rank 341st in scoring.

Georgia State averages nine points more per game than Coastal Carolina. The Panthers are 8-8 in the conference compared to the Chanticleers' 2-14 Sun Belt mark.

The Panthers are playing well with five wins in their last six games. Georgia State defeated Coastal Carolina, 79-74, in the first meeting this season. That was back on Jan. 11. The Panthers have gotten better since then while Coastal Carolina has gotten worse. The Chanticleers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.

Let's face it, Iowa's season ended in late January when center Owen Freeman was lost for the season with a finger injury. Freeman was averaging a team-best 16.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.8 blocked shots in 19 games. 

The Hawkeyes are 3-8 in their last 11 games. Their point spread record is even more miserable, 1-9-1 ATS, during this span. 

Illinois has lost three in a row since beating UCLA. Those losses, though, have occurred to Duke, Wisconsin (which played a perfect game) and Michigan State. This is a drop in class for the Illini and they are home.

The Illini have the scoring to blow out bad defenses and weak rebounding teams such as Iowa. Illinois ranks 18th in scoring 83.3 points a game. The Illini are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the nation. 

Iowa ranks 344th defensively giving up nearly 80 points a game. The Hawkeyes lack physical defenders and rebounders minus Freeman. 
The Hawkeyes can only hang in by scoring where they rank 8th in the country. However, the Hawkeyes average nearly 14 points per possession fewer when they play on the road. 

After being embarrassed by Duke, 110-67, at Madison Square Garden this past Saturday, I see Illinois taking its frustration out on Iowa.

I like Nicholls State to get revenge hosting Texas A&M Corpus Christi. The Colonels could only make 2 of 18 shots from 3-point range in a, 61-57, road loss to Texas A&M Corpus Christi on Jan. 25.

Nicholls State has won eight of its last 10 home games while the Islanders have dropped four of their past five road games.

The Islanders are averaging just 62.8 points in their last five games. Nicholls State produced 93 points in a home victory against UT Rio Grande Valley two days ago.

Clear and simple, I want UCLA going for me after the Bruins have had five days to stew about a shocking, 64-61, home loss to Minnesota. The Bruins got way too complacent in blowing a 17-point lead. It may be the frustrating loss in Mick Cronin's nearly six years at UCLA.

Going into that game, the Bruins were 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS. I see them picking up where they left off motivated by the stench of that home loss.

Ohio State is at low ebb. The Buckeyes are 1-3 SU and ATS in their past four games. They just lost at home by 21 points to Northwestern. So, sure, the Buckeyes want to erase that defeat. Problem is they aren't in UCLA's class, especially on defense.

Give me the superior defensive team in revenge mode. That's what we have here with underdog San Diego State against Utah State in this clash of top-four Mountain West Conference teams.

The Aztecs have the 10th-best defense in the nation and rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. They surrender seven fewer points per game than Utah State, which ranks 176th in defensive field goal percentage.

San Diego State is playing well with eight victories in its last 10 games. The Aztecs hosted Utah State on Dec. 28 and lost, 67-66, as four-point favorites. The Aztecs outrebounded the Aggies, but shot only 38 percent from the floor. They average 44.1 shooting percent from the field.

Shooting can come and go. But defense remains steady. I don't see Utah State scoring enough to cover this mid-range number.

North Carolina A&T now has gone Under six straight times. It's not a fluke. The Aggies have failed to adjust offensively to the suspensions of Landon Glasper and Ryan Forrest, their two leading scorers and best players. They've slowed tempo and played more intense defense to compensate, but their offense remains in shambles.

The average combined total in the Aggies' last five games have been 121.4 points. Not one of those games has exceeded 129 points.

Stone Brook ranks 344th in scoring averaging 66.7 points a game. The Seawolves are 338th in field goal percentage and 330th in offensive rebounding.

I get that fifth-ranked Houston has the top defense in the country and is at home. But this point spread is too much disrespect to eighth-ranked Iowa State.

The Cyclones average six more points per game than Houston. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger is in my discussion for best coach in the country. 
Otzelberger dealt with Houston last season and came away with two victories in three games. Point spread-wise, the Cyclones were 2-0-1 ATS versus the Cougars last season.

Perhaps Houston is better than it was last season. But Otzelberger also has his strongest Iowa State team. 

The Cyclones are a top-30 scoring team. Their defense is in excellent current form holding the past five opponents to an average of 64.2 points. 

Otzelberger has a pair of ball handlers, Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert, who won't get rattled by Houston's tenacious pressing defense.

I understand homecourt means something, especially in the Big East. But I don't find it difficult to ask Marquette to just beat Villanova by playing the Golden Eagles on the money at slightly elevated juice.

Marquette rolled past the Wildcats, 87-74, when it hosted them on Jan. 24.

The Golden Eagles are better in all facets. They rank higher than Villanova both in scoring and defense. They also rank in the top-five in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio. Villanova doesn't come close to matching that.

The Wildcats have been struggling lately, too. Since their big victory against St. John's, the Wildcats have lost to Providence and Connecticut by a combined average of 10 points.

Oregon State's road record is less than stellar. That's putting it nicely. This is a good road matchup for the Beavers, though. Pepperdine is at low ebb and Oregon State rolled past the Waves by 20 points at home on Jan. 23 as a 12 1/2-point favorite.

Pepperdine is 10-17 with a losing point spread mark. The Waves are 1-4 SU and ATS in their past five games. They were hammered in their last games, losing on the road to Gonzaga by 52 points.

The Waves like to play fast. They aren't efficient, however. They are below average offensively and rank 277th defensively and 240th in defensive rebounding.

Oregon State is 18-9 and has covered 69 percent of its games.  The Beavers have the 60th-best defense. They force nearly 12 turnovers per game, rank seventh in defensive rebounding and are the seventh-most accurate free throw shooting team in the nation.

The Beavers favor a deliberate style of play in contrast to Pepperdine. I see the Beavers limiting Pepperdine's scoring opportunities while frustrating them with their slow tempo and taking advantage at the free throw line to win by more than single digits.

These teams met three games ago and there were just 128 points scored in Campbell's 66-62 win. I'm expecting another low-scoring matchup. That's the way it has been for North Carolina A&T since the suspension of its two leading scorers, Landon Glasper and Ray Forrest, five games ago.

The Aggies aren't the same team without those two. Not only is their scoring down, but their tempo has gotten far slower. The Aggies are averaging 60.6 points in their last five games, all of which have gone Under.

Now the Aggies go against Campbell, which has the top defensive efficiency ranking in the Coastal Athletic Association and has the sixth-best 3-point defensive percentage rating in the country.

The Fighting Camels, though, rank 245th in scoring and 237th in 3-point shooting accuracy.

New Mexico leads the Mountain West Conference with a 14-1 record and is hot, winning eight in a row.

Yet the oddsmaker opened Boise State the favorite against the Aggies. Early market activity has been on the Broncos, too.

Wrong?

Not the way I see it. The oddsmaker pegged it right. The Broncos are 38-2 during their past 40 home night games. They have beaten New Mexico each of the last six times they've hosted them.

Even though the Broncos have certain matchup edges on New Mexico, they were buried, 84-65, on the road by the Aggies last month. Boise State committed 17 turnovers and missed 19 of 24 shots from beyond the arc while the Aggies made 54.4 percent of their 3-point shots in that game.

But now Boise State is home with revenge. The Broncos have held their past five home opponents to an average of 56.4 points.

Boise State is the fourth-best defensive rebounding team in the country and a far better free throw shooting team than New Mexico, ranking 36th in the nation in accuracy. The Aggies rank 288th in free throw percentage and are 228th in defensive rebounding.

Buffalo surprised Western Michigan, beating the Broncos, 85-76, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs on Jan. 18. The Bulls nailed 15 of their 32 3-point shots in that game for 47 percent. Buffalo ranks 342nd in 3-point accuracy on the season at 30.1 percent.

Western Michigan, which is two games better than Buffalo in the Mid-American Conference, has been itching for revenge.

Buffalo is 1-6 in its last seven home games. In their home games where the point spread is five points or fewer, the Bulls have failed to cover 10 of the past 11 times.

The Broncos have the best player on the court in guard Chansey Willis and have proven themselves on the road posting away upsets of Kent State, Ball State and Youngstown State.

Buffalo is heavily turnover-prone and ranks 351st defensively allowing 80.5 points a game.

Arizona has not lost three straight games all season. I don't see that streak ending here for the 13th-ranked Wildcats.

The Wildcats are better than unranked Baylor. They proved that last month at home when they built a 27-point second half lead and coasted to an, 81-70, victory. KenPom ratings have Arizona as the 12th best team while ranking Baylor 29th. 

But now Arizona is in stop-the-pain mode after a 73-70 road loss to surging Kansas State six days ago and a tough, 62-58, home loss to sixth-ranked Houston this past Saturday.

Baylor has a potential lottery pick in big man Norchad Omier. However, the Bears' rotation took a hit three games ago when center Josh Ojianwuna was lost for the season with a knee injury. 

The Bears failed to cover as 8 1/2-point home favorites in beating West Virginia, 74-71 in overtime, two days ago. Just seven players saw action for the Bears with four players logging 35 minutes, including Omier. VJ Edgecombe and Langston Love each went 41 minutes. 

Baylor also had to change its style without Ojianwuna going with four perimeters alongside Omier. That style is less effective matching up against the Wildcats, who rank 12th in offensive rebounding.

South Dakota is the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.4 points. But when the Coyotes play their in-state rival, South Dakota State, the Coyotes fall apart offensively.

South Dakota has lost nine in a row to the Jackrabbits, while being held to an average of only 64 points during their last six games against South Dakota State.

South Dakota State defeated South Dakota, 90-71, in the first meeting this season on Jan. 25. That's a combined 161 points and there were 50 free throws attempted. The Jackrabbits grabbed 15 more boards in that game. South Dakota State ranks 27th in the nation in defensive rebounding so the Coyotes don't figure to get many extra shot attempts. The Coyotes rank 292nd in 3-point shooting accuracy.

South Dakota is not a good defensive team playing in the high-scoring Summit League. But the Coyotes have held their last three opponents to an average of 75 points a game and have above average perimeter defensive statistics.

Surprised unranked Texas is a favorite against 15th-ranked Kentucky? Don't be. The spot and Kentucky likely missing two key players make the Longhorns a deserving home favorite. 

Texas is in desperation mode having gone 1-4 in its last five games. The Longhorns have played the toughest schedule in the toughest conference, the SEC. But they need this game to improve their NCAA Tournament resume. 

The timing works for Texas. The Longhorns draw the Wildcats after Kentucky just upset fifth-ranked Tennessee at home this past Tuesday. 

The Wildcats, though, finished their emotional victory against the Volunteers minus Jaxson Robinson, who sat out with a wrist injury, and point guard Lamont Butler, who went out with injury during the game. Kentucky coach Mark Pope said he does not expect either player to play. Those are Kentucky's second and third leading scorers. Butler also is Kentucky's assists leader. 

Butler's expected absence should be a plus for Texas' Tre Johnson, who leads the SEC in scoring.

I find this a bargain price to back UCLA, who I rate considerably higher than Indiana especially given the Hooisers' coaching uncertainty. 
But because of this past Tuesday's results we get a very low lay price on UCLA.

The Bruins fell on the road to Illinois three days ago, 83-78, while the Hooisers upset Michigan State as an 11 1/2-point road 'dog this past Tuesday. 
I find these results to be an outlier. UCLA had won seven consecutive games before running into the Illini. Indiana had lost five in a row and was in disarray with low morale about the decision of coach Mike Woodson to retire at the end of the season, leaving much coaching speculation, before shocking Michigan State.

These results put UCLA in a high concentration, high motivational level while the Hooisers may be in fat-and-happy mode. That's the situational element. The statistical handicap is UCLA ranks 18th defensively compared to Indiana's 231st defensive ranking and lack of rim protection, which the Bruins can exploit. 

UCLA has the best defense in the Big Ten giving up an average of 64.6 points a game. The Bruins also take far better care of the ball than the Hooisers.

Don't expect many points here in a battle between the two most efficient defenses in Conference USA. These strong defenses are in excellent current form.

Liberty is giving up only 62.1 points in its last six games. The Flames surrender the eighth-fewest points in the nation and rank No. 3 in 3-point defense.

New Mexico State has held its past seven foes to an average of 61 points. 

The two teams met on Jan. 18 and Liberty won, 68-60. There were 128 points scored in that one despite 42 free throws being shot.

Campbell has held its last six foes to an average of 56 points in regulation. I see the Camels shutting down North Carolina A&T in this matchup.

North Carolina A&T ranks 338th in shooting percentage, 309th in 3-point percentage and are 301st in free throw percentage. And that largely was with their two leading scorers, Ryan Forrest and Landon Glasper. Both players, who average a combined 37.6 points a game, are suspended. They missed the last two games and the Aggies could only average 61 points in those games.

Minus Forrest and Glasper, the Aggies leading scorer is Jahnathan Lamothe, who averages 11.7 points.

Campbell isn't exactly a scoring machine either. The Camels rank 252nd in scoring. None of their players averages even 15 points a game.

Lamar is in a tie for second place in the Southland Conference. Rio Grande Valley is in eighth place in the conference.

Lamar clearly is the superior team. The Cardinals buried the Vaqueros on the road, 84-52, earlier this season. Now they are home and the point spread is reasonable.

The Cardinals hold an advantage both defensively and in 3-point shooting against Rio Grande Valley. They also are in better current form.

Lamar is 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals want this home victory to erase the bitter memory of a two-point loss to Southeastern Louisiana in their last game.

The Vaqueros, by contrast, are 3-6 in their last nine games, 2-6-1 ATS.

Drexel holds several key edges here besides home-court in this Colonial Athletic Association matchup. The Dragons are a far superior defensive and rebounding team than William & Mary.

The Dragons rank in the top 48 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They've held three of their last five opponents to 55 or fewer points.

William & Mary ranks 304th defensively, permitting 10 more points per game than Drexel. The Tribe has allowed an average of 82.4 points in their last five games. They have dropped their last two road games, while the Dragons have won and covered their past two home games.

Going into the Patriot League for this one where Boston University is hosting Navy.

Boston University is the better defensive team and has won and covered its last six home games. The Terriers are 11-12 overall.

Navy is 8-15 overall. 

Boston is the much stronger rebounding team, ranking ninth in the nation in defensive rebounding.

Gonzaga has a well-earned great reputation. But the Bulldogs are not the class of the West Coast Conference. St. Mary's is with the record and statistics to prove it. The Gaels should not be a home 'dog to Gonzaga.

St. Mary's is unbeaten in nine WCC games. The Gaels are 19-3 overall. Gonzaga is 16-6 overall, 9-13 ATS and is 7-2 in the WCC with losses to Oregon State, 97-89, and to Santa Clara at home, 103-99, on Jan. 18.

The Gaels, who are 11-1 at home, just defeated Santa Clara, 67-54, on the road this past Wednesday. St. Mary's defeated Gonzaga in two of three meetings last season, including in the conference tournament, 69-60.

Gonzaga is the No. 2 scoring team in the nation. However, St. Mary's is the superior defensive and rebounding team. The Gaels give up 10 points fewer per game than the Bulldogs ranking seventh in the country defensively. The Gaels also are the top rebounding team in the nation with a team total rebounding percentage of 57.6 percent.

Gonzaga's 3-point shooting percentage drops seven percent when it plays on the road.

Bottom line: Wrong team favored.

These Summit League teams play fast and loose. South Dakota State has scored 80 or more points in seven of its last nine games. That's no surprise since the Jackrabbits average 80 points a game. 

North Dakota State has scored at least 80 points in eight of its past 10 games. Again, no surprise since the Bison average 82.6 points a game. 

No team in the country is more accurate in their 3-point shooting than the Bison, too. North Dakota State is hitting 40.1 percent of its shots from beyond the arc.

I respect Santa Clara. You don't beat Gonzaga on its home floor and not be good as the Broncos did, 103-99, 11 days ago.

But I have more respect for St. Mary's because of its current form, defense and rebounding.

The Gaels have won eight in a row. Santa Clara just lost by 14 points on the road to Oregon State four days ago.

St. Mary's ranks seventh defensively. Santa Clara rates 269th defensively, allowing 13 more points per game than St. Mary's. The Gaels also hold a huge rebounding edge ranking seventh in offensive rebounds and ninth in defensive rebounding.

VCU is playing well with five straight victories. But this line is too high.

St. Bonaventure defeated the Rams, 77-75, at home on New Year's Eve. 

The Bonnies are 7-2 ATS in road/neutral site games. 

VCU ranks 12th defensively allowing just 62.6 points a game. St. Bonaventure, though, is right there with the Rams holding foes to an average of 63.6 points a game. VCU's offensive superiority isn't enough to cover this high of a point spread.

Iowa averages nearly 20 points more per game than Minnesota and plays much better at home. Minnesota has yet to win away from home going 0-5 in away and neutral-site court games. That includes blowout road losses to Wisconsin and Indiana, a team Iowa defeated by 25 points at home.

The spot here sets up for an Iowa double-digit victory. The Hawkeyes won't lack motivation returning home after losing West Coast games to UCLA and Southern Cal last week. The Hawkeyes are 10-1 at home with their lone loss occurring to third-ranked Iowa State. 

The Gophers are averaging just 65.2 points in regulation during their last five games. 

Only two teams in the country average more than Iowa's 88.4 points a game - and the Hawkeyes are at their offensive-best at home.

Nevada isn't playing well enough to lay this large of a number. The Wolf Pack are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They've played two bad teams in their last two games, Air Force and Fresno State. The Wolf Pack defeated Air Force by six points as a 19-point home favorite and beat Fresno State in overtime as a 12 1/2-point road favorite.

The Spartans are better than Air Force and Fresno State, who are a combined 1-13 in the Mountain West Conference. They rank third in the conference in 3-point accuracy and are 42nd in free throw percentage.

Nevada has allowed nearly 38 percent from beyond the arc in its last 10 games and are 289th in free throw percentage. These are far from ideal numbers when laying a hefty number like this.

The Big Sky Conference is not known for defense. These two teams are an example why.

Weber State has permitted 80 or more points in three of its last four games.

the Wildcats, though, are No. 2 in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency.

Montana plays fast and ranks 51st in field goal percentage. The Grizzlies, though, are 286th defensively.

Georgetown ranks 254th in field goal percentage. The Hoyas haven't reached 70 points in each of their last three games, averaging 65 points during this span.

The Hoyas are about defense, ranking 13th in defensive field goal percentage. Just 25 teams give up fewer points per game than Georgetown. St. John's is one of the poorest 3-point shooting teams in the country.

St. John's has held its last four foes to an average of 64.7 points a game. The Red Storm rank seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency and in shot blocking.

High total here? Yes. But expect a track meet. These teams are high scoring and like to run.

Memphis averages nearly 80 points a game. The Tigers are the 10th-most accurate 3-point shooting team in the country. Florida Atlantic is a bottom-10 defense when it comes to defending against 3-pointers.

The Owls, though, average 84.8 points a game while giving up an average of 77.6 points. They also rank in the top-25 in terms of tempo.

Cal Irvine is 10-1 and has revenge for a 66-62 loss to Duquesne last season.

Cal Irvine is much better than the Dukes this season. The Anteaters shoot better, are the superior rebounding team and make 84 percent of their free throws compared to the Dukes, who make less than 65 percent of their free throws.

The Anteaters are 4-1 on the road while the Dukes have dropped four of their past five home contests.

Marquette has had four days to stew about a loss to Dayton in its last game.

The Golden Eagles are far superior to Butler and I want them off a loss playing at home. 

Marquette is 7-0 at home, 5-1-1 ATS. The Golden Eagles' average home win has been by 23.7 points. 

Butler has a losing point spread record. The Bulldogs lost their last game to Wisconsin, 83-74, at a neutral site. That was their third straight defeat. Early in the season, they lost at home to Austin Peay as a 17-point favorite. 

By contrast, Marquette beat Wisconsin, 88-74, at home. 

Class difference, home-court and motivation should all factor in Marquette covering this number.

There were 172 combined points scored when these two teams met last season. I see a similar total being produced this season so I like the Over.

Albany is weak guarding against the 3-pointer ranking 338th. Making 3-pointers is a strength of Sacred Heart as it ranks 30th in the country.

Both teams play at a fast tempo, too. Sacred Heart has surrendered 81 points or more in six of its 10 games.

I like Weber State in stop-the-pain mode in this spot. The Wildcats were favored in their last two games against North Dakota and North Dakota State. They lost both times.

I have the Wildcats ranked much higher than Utah Tech than this short spread. I see the Wildcats playing with much intensity here. They had won three in a row prior to losing to the North Dakota schools.

Utah Tech has lost seven of its last eight games and is a horrible rebounding and shooting team. The Trailblazers also are weak defensively.

Virginia isn't the defensive juggernaut of past seasons. The Cavaliers haven't been getting consistent point guard play either. Those are issues.

But those issues shouldn't stop the Cavaliers from covering this number against a bad Bethune-Cookman team in what is a huge step down for Virginia.

Bethune-Cookman is a 2-6 team from the SWAC. The Wildcats have played three major conference teams - Texas Tech, Nebraska and Minnesota. They lost those games by an average of 18.3 points.

Virginia returns home with urgency having lost its previous two games to SMU and Florida, both on the road. The Cavaliers are 4-0 at home. This is just the type of opponent they need to face right now to get their confidence up.

This is Indiana's opening Big Ten Conference game. I'm expecting a lot of intensity from the Hooisers. Indiana coach Mike Woodson wasn't pleased with the lack of energy in his team's last game, a 76-57 home win against Miami of Ohio this past Friday.

Minnesota is one of the worst shooting teams in the nation. The Gophers rank 342nd in scoring and 351st in free throw percentage. They also are well below par in offensive rebounding. Because of their lack of scoring, the Gophers play at a slow tempo ranking 354th in total possessions per game.

Indiana is holding opponents to 40 percent shooting from the floor.

Minnesota's only chance is to slow tempo, relying on a defense that ranks 17th in the nation giving up 62 points a game.

So I envision a lower-scoring game than what the oddsmaker does.

Maryland is 7-1 with its lone loss coming to 15th-ranked Marquette by four points. The Terrapins are better than Ohio State and playing at home. That combination should mean a point spread cover here.

Ohio State needs to shake off a 91-90 home loss to underdog Pittsburgh this past Friday. The Panthers pulled the upset on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Ohio State is a bad free throw shooting team and it bit them against Pittsburgh.

Maryland is a much better free throw shooting team than the Buckeyes and the Terrapins commit four fewer fouls per game.

The Terrapins have revenge, too, for a 79-75 double overtime road loss to Ohio State last February.

I'm going to ride the Bearcats, who are 6-0 to start the season. Cincinnati's competition hasn't been great, but I rate the Bearcats much better than Villanova.

The Wildcats haven't played great opponents either, but are just 4-4 with losses to Columbia, St. Joe's, Virginia and Maryland.

Villanova is vulnerable from 3-point range ranking 311th in 3-point defense. Cincinnati is the most accurate shooting team in the nation hitting 53.6 percent from the floor. The Bearcats also rank No. 10th in 3-point shooting at 41.5 percent.

Cincinnati is very strong defensively, too, ranking third in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage.

Loyola Marymount and Belmont are meeting tonight in Mexico as part of the Cancun Challenge. 

I trust Belmont's accurate shooting and am banking on Loyola Marymount's struggles against Division I opponents.

Belmont ranks 23rd in the country in field goal accuracy. The Bruins have won and covered their past three games. 

The Lions are 0-3 against Division I foes this season. They have lost each of their past five non-conference games going back to last season. Loyola Marymount is coming off a 77-73 home loss to North Dakota as an 11-point favorite. 

The Lions rank 337th in 3-point defense. 

This is a neutral site matchup being played in Charleston, S.C. as part of the Charleston Classic. Power rating-wise, I have Nevada as the much superior team. So I'm backing the Wolf Pack.

Nevada has a huge size advantage, has played the stronger schedule and is a much better defensive team than Vanderbilt.

The Commodores are averaging 91.5 points, but have played only one semi-decent team and that was California. Their three other victories came against cupcakes. The Commodores have played one of the 15 easiest schedules in the country.  

Vanderbilt is not highly thought of despite its 4-0 record. The Commodores were picked to finish last in the 16-team SEC in the league's preseason poll.

Nevada is a huge step-up for Vanderbilt. The Wolf Pack are well-balanced and more battle-tested. I expect them to have no problem covering this small number.

UCLA has rolled past three cupcakes at home. The one time this season the Bruins stepped up in class they lost to New Mexico, 72-64, as a short favorite at neutral site Henderson, Nev. 

The Bruins are going to get better. But right now they are laying too many points against spunky Idaho State, which has been undervalued by the oddsmaker going 4-0 ATS. 

UCLA fans are not giving the Bruins much home support. UCLA is averaging 4,694 fans, which ranks 17th out of the 18 Big Ten Conference teams in home attendance. Bruins fans don't get excited about bad matchups. 

Idaho State has played Arizona State and USC close, easily covering both road games. The Bengals were 17 1/2-point road 'dogs to Arizona State and lost, 55-48, and were plus 24 at USC losing, 75-69, to the Trojans. 

The Bengals lost as a road underdog to Fullerton and upset San Diego as a four-point road 'dog, 78-66. Idaho State is giving up just 64.2 points per game and is a solid rebounding team. 

Will the Bengals beat UCLA? No. But they can keep this game closer than this lopsided point spread.