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Baylor is 4-1 since losing center and second-leading scorer Tristan Clark for the season with a knee injury. The Bears have come together following Clark's injury riding a season-high four game win streak. The Bears have knocked off ranked Texas Tech and won at Oklahoma State during this span. There are some key intangibles that point to the Bears keeping this one close - if not pulling the outright upset.  Oklahoma just rolled past Vanderbilt, 86-66, this past Saturday in an SEC/Big 12 Challenge game. Vandy is coached by Bryce Drew, the younger brother of Baylor coach Scott Drew. So you know the older Drew has picked his brother's brain about how best to attack the Sooners.  Not committing turnovers is one element. Vanderbilt committed 22 turnovers in its road loss to the Sooners. Baylor turned the ball over just eight times, tying a season-low, in beating Alabama, 73-68, this past Saturday. The Bears have gone more to playing four guards at one time since losing Clark. That could account for fewer turnovers.  The Bears are playing tough defense holding their last four foes to 68 points a game. Baylor also leads the Big 12 in rebounding margin at plus 6.5.  Baylor is used to playing on Monday after having just been in action on Saturday. They have done it the past two weeks, posting Monday road victories against Oklahoma State and West Virginia. The familiarity in this routine is a plus. The Bears won both of these games straight-up as an underdog. Baylor is 4-0 ATS during its past four away contests. The Bears also have covered in four of their last five road games versus the Sooners.  The last time the Sooners played on less than two days rest was back in November. Oklahoma hasn't been playing that well either going 3-3 in its last six games. 

Utah has been playing strong defense. The Utes have held their last four foes to 70 points or fewer. California struggles offensively. The Golden Bears haven't reached 60 points during their last three games. They rank last in the Pac-12 in scoring and field goal percentage. The Under has cashed in four of the Golden Bears' last five games. 

UMass is stepping down in class and can take advantage of St. Bonaventure's youth. The Bonnies are dealing with injuries and have been horrible on the road going 0-8-1 ATS during their last nine road games. UMass has the better offense and is showing improvement on the defensive end. The Minutemen are averaging nearly six more points per game than St. Bonaventure. 

Nebraska gives up just 61.3 points a game. Only 11 teams give up fewer points per game. Rutgers is a far better defensive team than offensive one. The Scarlet Knights rank 67th in scoring defense holding foes to 66.8 points per game.

The Scarlet Knights, though, figure to have problems handling the ball. Nebraska leads the Big Ten in steals per game. The Scarlet Knights remain without their leadings scorer, Eugene Omoruyi. He's out with a leg injury. Rutgers knows it can't win shootout games. So expect a slow tempo.

That's been the pattern of the past three meetings between these two teams with the average combined score being just 121.6 points. 

These teams have a history of going Under when playing in Iowa and I see that continuing here. I can see Illinois' freshmen having problems against the Hawkeyes' defense at this venue especially coming off a high-scoring home win. The Under has cashed the last four times the Illinis have gone against an above .500 opponent. Iowa is off an upset road victory against Penn State. The Under has cashed eight of the last 10 times Iowa has played after it won its previous game. 

St. Louis is the superior team and on a nice run winning five in a row. St. Joe's upset Davidson in its last game. However, prior to that, the Hawks had dropped four in a row. The Hawks are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and are down their second-leading scorer, Lamarr Kimble, who recently suffered a hand injury.  

Santa Clara is underpriced here coming off a loss to Gonzaga. Certainly there is no shame in that. The Broncos had won eight of their last nine before that. They own victories at home against USC and San Diego. The Broncos can certainly handle Pepperdine especially in a revenge spot after the Wave knocked them out of the WCC Tournament last season by hitting an incredible 70 percent of their shots. Santa Clara has been strong against the spread all season covering 69 percent. I'll ride the Broncos here. 

Maybe things will turn around for Illinois. But probably not this season. The Illini are horrible. Fourth-ranked Michigan is far superior and doesn't lose focus. Even though they are home, the Illini may have trouble shaking a heartbreaking 68-66 road loss to in-state rival Northwestern this past Sunday. Michigan has dominated Illinois going 12-3-1 ATS in the past 16 meetings. The Illini are only 1-6 ATS in their past seven home games. 

Ohio State gives up the 31st fewest points in the country - and that's after surrendering 86 points to Michigan State in its last game. So expect the Buckeyes to really clamp down on Rutgers, which averages fewer than 69 points per game. 

These teams averaged 122.5 points during their two games last season. Both are contend to keep the pace slow. So Under is the way to look. 

Fordham Under has been an outstanding money-maker in non-conference games such as this one going 20-8-1 the past 29 times. Neither team pushes pace. Both are stronger defensively than on offense. So expect a slow, half-court type of game with defense getting the upper hand. 

Penn State has been an Under machine goine below the total in seven of its last eight games. The Nittany Lions have the defense to frustrate North Carolina State. They give up the 44th-fewest points in the country. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times Penn State has met an ACC opponent.

Note this game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, a neutral site that has a reputation for being tough to shoot in. 

Montana has been incredibly accurate from the field this season, but Cal-Irvine is home and is a strong defensive team. The Anteaters are experienced with 94 percent of its offense back. They already have defeated Texas A&M and St. Mary's this season along with a 20-point victory against Idaho. Montana has failed to cover during its past seven road games. The Grizzlies also are 1-5 ATS during their last six nonconference games.

This total opened too high based on perception. Kansas State scored 95 points on Eastern Kentucky in its last game two days ago. But Penn is an entirely opposite opponent. The Quakers do not push tempo. The Wildcats are a more deliberate type team, too. 

This game is being played at a neutral site - the Virgin Island Sports Fitness Center where there have been more unders than overs historically at this venue.

Note this game is at a neutral site in the Virgin Islands in a gym unfamilar to both teams, which is a plus for the Under. Kennesaw State hasn't shown anything offensively scoring a combined 101 points versus Kansas State and Samford. The Under has cashed in seven of its last nine games.

Missouri has become a very defensive team under Cuonzo Martin. Neither team plays at an uptempo pace.

St. Mary's is ranked 15th in fewest points allowed per game. SE Louisiana is going to have problems denting the Gaels' defense. The under has cashed 14 of the last 17 times in St. Mary's home games. 

What also helps the Under here is that neither team plays at a fast pace. St. Mary's, in fact, is one of the slowest tempo teams in the nation. 

These teams have a strong under bias when playing one another. The under has cashed in seven of the past nine meetings. I see that trend contiuning here. 

San Diego State is on a huge roll and I'm going to get behind the Aztecs here. They are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games since suspended senior leader Malik Pope returned to the team. All together, the Aztecs have won eight in a row.  They've covered the past six times against above .500 opponents.

New Mexico is in a bad situational spot having had to play the late game last night. Now they have to play around 15 hours later with legs that figure to be tired. San Diego State should be the much fresher team since it played earlier and only had one of its starters go past the 29-minute mark. 

The Aztecs are a bad matchup, too, for New Mexico because they like to slow things down and don't turn the ball over. The Lobos thrive on comitting turnovers. That's not likely to happen here. 

I don't see Oregon having anything left in the tank. The Ducks are playing for the third day in a row. They won in overtime two days ago and were involved in a nail-biting two point victory against Utah last night.

By contrast, USC has played only two games since Feb. 24. The Trojans will be the fresher team by far. 

The Trojans are in good form winning five of their last six games, including defeating Oregon during this span. They also beat the Ducks earlier this season. Oregon has matchup problems against 6-foot-11 inch center Chimezie Metu. The Trojans are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. 

These two teams just met this past Saturday and LSU held Mississippi State to 58 points while scoring 78. Now the teams meet again being very familiar with one another and in a much critical game as this is the second round of the SEC Tournament. 

The Tigers shot 51.9 percent from the field and hit 47.8 percent of their 3-point shots. I don't see a repeat of that here. Mississippi State ranks among the top 60 teams in the nation in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. 

Note the neutral site, Scottrade Center in St. Louis, being the venue. That's a plus for the Under. This is a big arena where the St. Louis Blues play their home hockey games and is known as an Under arena for basketball teams. The SEC Tournament has never been held there until this year. So it's unfamilar to both teams. 

SMU couldn't beat Connecticut when it had leading scorer Shake Milton and I don't see it beating the Huskies without him. SMU is 1-8 since Milton suffered a broken hand. The Mustangs are 2-6-1 ATS during this time frame.

The Mustangs haven't broken 56 points during three of their last five games. 

Look for Notre Dame to play much better than it did against Pittsburgh yesterday. The Irish are 4-0 ATS following a non-cover. The return of Bomzie Colson makes Notre Dame a much better team than this spread indicates. 

The Irish won't lack incentive either needing a victory here to boost their NCAA Tourney hopes. That's not the case with Virginia Tech, which likely is in regardless. 

Louisville needs to play great defense to beat Florida State. I don't see that happening. This has been a down season for the Cardinals on the court and a terrible one for them off the court. I 

St. Mary's had to exert a lot of energy to get past stubborn 10th-seeded Pepperdine in Saturday's West Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals. The Gaels are going to need to play better to cover this number against BYU. This was the fifth time in their last six conference games that the Gaels have failed to cover the spread.

This is the revenge game of the year for the Cougars, who lost 80-51 to St. Mary's in last year's semifinal WCC tournament game. I don't believe St. Mary's is playing well enough right now to cover this spread. 

Michigan is playing its best basketball. The Wolverines have been extremely consistent scoring 72 or more points during each of their last eight games. During this span, Michigan is averaging 77.7 points per game.

Purdue averages 81.6 points a game, which ranks the Boilermakers 35th in the nation in scoring. The Over has cashed in 22 of Purdue's last 28 neutral site games. 

San Diego State is playing its best basketball. The Aztecs have won five in a row with the winning margin being nearly 16 points per game.

The Aztecs have revenge for a loss to Nevada. The Wolf Pack lack the movitation of the Aztecs. They've already won the Mountain West Conference and achieved their Revenge Game of the Year this past Wednesday blitzing UNLV by 26 points. 

Another key for San Diego State is Malik Pope is back after missing a game. 

Villanova has no reason to play especially hard in this lopsided matchup, especially following consecutive overtime games in which their starters logged heavy minutes. The Wildcats don't have a lot of depth and must not burn out their starters with the Big East Tournament approaching. 

Never mind that Kansas has already won the Big 12 Conference crown again. The Jayhawks have had this game circled ever since Oklahoma State upset them, 84-79, as 12-point road underdogs.

Kansas is a solid money-maker on the road where it usually isn't that overpriced covering 10 of the last 14 times. Oklahoma State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home contests. 

I see Rhode Island atoning for an embarrassing 30-point home loss to St. Joe's in its last game. The Rams have defeated Davidson four straight times, including a 13-point winner at home in their last meeting. The Rams have won 18 of their last 20 games and have covered in 17 of their last 24 Atlantic 10 games. 

Penn is playing well. But so is Yale. The Bulldogs have won five of their last six. The Bulldogs also are in revenge mode for a 59-50 road loss to Penn in the previous meeting this season.

Despite that earlier defeat, Yale has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 8-3 ATS. 

Kentucky has picked a good time to get back untrack. The Wildcats are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games. During this span, they have posted double-digit victories against Alabama, Arkansas and Missouri.

Mississippi, by constrast, is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Rebels are a horrible 1-9 in their lined road games, including 3-7 ATS. 

Kentucky also has covered five of the last six in this series. 

Iowa is a great fade now that it is tournament time. The Hawkeyes are 2-7 in the Big Ten Tournament under Fran McCaffrey. They have lost in the first round the past four seasons.

The Hawkeyes enter tournament play losing six of their last seven games. They've allowed 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games and are giving up the most points per game since 1993-94. 

Illinois is coming off a 13-point road win against Rutgers and with strong revenge motivation after suffering a 104-97 home overtime loss to the Hawkeyes in their its last meeting. The Hawkeyes overcame a 20-point deficit to pull out that victory.  

Baylor is playing better since losing 98-96 to Oklahoma during the first meeting between the two teamsd. The Bears are 5-2 SU and ATS since that loss.

Trae Young had a monster game for Oklahoma in the victory against Baylor scoring 44 points. Young, though, has tailed off perhaps worn down by the long season. 

I like Baylor in a revenge spot here. I don't see Young hurting the Bears like he did in the first meeting. The Sooners have failed to cover during their last eight road games. 

The Under has won in 10 of Texas Techs last 13 road games. I see that trend continuing in this matchup, which shapes up to be a tight, intense defensive struggle.

Only two teams have a better defensive efficiency rating than the Red Raiders. These are the top two teams in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency ratings, too. Neither team plays at a fast tempo either. 

So Under is the way to go. 

Nebraska has been a monster money-maker this season. This has been especially so at home where the Cornhuskers have covered 10 of the past 11 times. All together, the Cornhuskers have covered an amazing 14 of their last 16 Big Ten games.

Penn State has had a strong season, too, but I see signs of the Nittany Lions fading. They have lost in their last two games. Penn State also will be without forward Mike Watkins, who is out with a knee injury. Watkins leads the Nittany Lions in rebounding and is their third leading scorer. 

The Over has cashed in 68 percent of George Mason's last 63 home games. I'm going to ride that string. This should be a loosely played game featuring lots of scoring. UMass's defense has gone downhill. That's reflected in the Over cashing during UMass's last eight games. The Minutemen have surrendered 82 or more points in each of their last eight games. 

Harvard is on an 8-3-1 against the spread run. The Crimson just rolled past Princeton by 15 points two weeks ago. Now look at the line. So I definitely believe there is value on the Crimson.

Princeton has lost and failed to cover in its last six games. The Tigers have a losing ATS home record. 

The Bobcats of Quinnipiac have covered in seven of their last nine games. I like them to beat St. Peter's at home. The Bobcats have strong revenge motivation for an 84-58 road loss to St. Peter's back early last month when they weren't playing as well. 

St. Peter's is a very weak road team going 2-10 SU, 3-9 ATS. The Peacocks have failed to cover in five of their last six road games. 

Rutgers is a premier defensive team giving up the 12th fewest points in the country. But the Scarlet Knights are horrendous on offense and going against Ohio State's top-50 defense.

Rutgers has scored less than 58 points in regulation during seven of its last nine games. The Scarlet Knights were held to 46 points by Ohio State in the team's first meeting. 

The Buckeyes are in a kill spot following two straight road losses. So there's no reason for them to play fast if owning a big lead as expected. Ohio State has gone Under in 18 of its last 23 home games. So there is a strong Under pattern.