Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-13-18 | Stanford +4 v. Washington | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm going to take the points in this battle of two surprise, overachieving teams. Stanford has won and covered three in a row. Washington already has surpassed last season's Pac-12 win total. The Huskies, though, have been fortunate going 9-1 in games decided by less than 10 points. The Huskies have covered just one of their last eight home contests. | |||||||
01-13-18 | Evansville v. Drake UNDER 133 | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
I like going Under in Missouri Valley Conference games. The pace is slower and teams are more deliberate taking ample time off the shot clock. This matchup follows that pattern. Evanville is one of the more methodical teams in the country. This is going to bother Drake. The Under has cashed in the Purple Aces' last four games. | |||||||
01-12-18 | Monmouth v. Niagara -120 | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on Niagara after the Purple Eagles won consecutive road games against Siena and Marist. | |||||||
01-11-18 | NC-Wilmington v. Elon OVER 156.5 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
NC Wilmington averages 80.3 points per game. Elon averages 74.5 points a game. But what makes this a strong Over play is both team's defenses are terrible, especially Wilmington's, and both teams have been playing at a faster pace since league play. Wilmington ranks 344th defensively surrendering 85.9 points a game. The Seahawks rank near the bottom in many defensive statistical categories. They have given up an average of 90.6 points in their last three games. Elon can take advantage with its solid outside shooting. The Over has cashed in 13 of Wilmington's last 16 games while the Over has cashed in Elon's past seven home games. | |||||||
01-10-18 | LSU v. Arkansas -9 | 75-54 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Arkansas is in stop-the-pain mode following road losses to Mississippi State and Auburn. But now the Razorbacks return home where they have won the past 11 times dating back to last season, covering five of their last six at Bud Walton Arena. They catch LSU in a letdown spot. The Tigers are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 69-68 road upset of then No. 11 ranked Texas A&M. LSU achieved this victory by coming back from a five-point deficit with 12.4 seconds left. LSU immediately lost following big wins against Michigan in the Maui Invitational, Houston at home and Memphis on the road. This is a pattern with the Tigers, who are 6-15-1 ATS following a victory. The Razorbacks lead the SEC in scoring and field goal percentage. They hold a tremendous home-court advantage. | |||||||
01-10-18 | UCF v. Connecticut +1 | 53-62 | Win | 102 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
There are a lot of ebbs and flows to the college basketball season. Connecticut was going through a low period. But I see a buy sign now on the Huskies following their 70-65 win against East Carolina especially being home. The Huskies have won the last seven times against Central Florida. | |||||||
01-09-18 | Ball State v. Ohio -1 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Ohio is 7-1 at home this season and catches Ball State traveling out of Indiana for the first time since before Thanksgiving. Often times a team that had a long winning streak just end doesn't play well in their next game. Ball State is in that position. The Cardinals had their nine-game win streak snapped this past Saturday losing by 20 points to Buffalo at home. Buffalo exposed the Cardinals' inconsistent perimeter game and lack of size. Ohio can do the same. The Cardinals are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road contests after playing three or more home games in a row. Ball State isn't expected to have starting guard Jontrell Walker either. He was supsended indefinitely on Saturday after being charged with domestic battery. | |||||||
01-09-18 | Georgetown +7.5 v. St. John's | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
I liked and respected Chris Mullin as a basketball player. But I don't think much of his coaching abilities. And I don't believe his St. John's team is good enough to be laying this many points to Georgetown. The Red Storm have yet to win a Big East game going 0-4. They are second-to-last in the conference in rebounding differential and have a weak perimeter defense. Georgetown averages nearly 81 points. St. John's averages 71.8 points, last in the conference. St. John's continues to be without injured Marcus LoVett and it has shown in bad home losses to DePaul and Providence. The Hoyas have covered all three of their lined road games this season. The line is high because the Hoyas are coming off a 90-66 home loss to Creighton. The good news, though, about that loss was that Georgetown's two best players, Jessie Govan and Markus Derrickson, played reduced mintues. Both should be fresh and fired-up for this matchup. | |||||||
01-07-18 | Iowa v. Maryland UNDER 149.5 | 73-91 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a lot of defensive intensity in this matchup and a slower pace from Maryland. The Hawkeyes are in stop-the-pain mode, while the Terrapins are coming off an embarrassing 30-point road loss to Michigan State. Iowa can take advantage of Maryland's lack of ballhandling skills. The Terrapins are still adjusting to the loss of forward Justin Jackson, who was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. The teams have gone Under the total during four of their last five meetings. | |||||||
01-06-18 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +19.5 | 85-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Loyola-Marymount is better than perceived, but this handicap is based more on a fade of Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are down from past seasons and have padded their statistics on bad teams. | |||||||
01-06-18 | Central Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 145 | 69-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Kent State isn't a very good shooting tean. That's reflected in the Golden Flashes going Under the total in 13 of their last 19 games. Central Michigan is a strong defensive club ranking 27th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 64.3 per game. A big reason why the Chippewas have a strong defensive club is because they play at a slow pace. So I don't see a fast tempo in this matchup, which makes the Under very attractive. | |||||||
01-06-18 | VCU +3.5 v. La Salle | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The road team has covered six of the last seven in this series and I see that continuing here. VCU is coming off a tough overtime road loss to St. Joe's. The Rams had won four in a row prior to that. I don't think LaSalle is better than VCU. | |||||||
01-05-18 | Niagara +1.5 v. Siena | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
Just think the wrong team opened as the favorite. Siena isn't very good. The Saints have a losing home mark while being outscored by six pointd per game at home. Going back to their last 16 home contests, the Saints have covered just five times. Niagara has a winning spread mark on the road. The Purple Eagles covered both of their games last season versus Siena. | |||||||
01-05-18 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers +2.5 | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Wisconsin is way down from previous seasons. The Badgers also have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among the Badgers who won't be playing is starting guard Brevin Pritzl, who has a head injury. | |||||||
01-04-18 | Cincinnati v. Temple UNDER 138 | 55-53 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I really like Cincinnati's defense, which is the fourth-stingiest in the nation giving up 59.1 points per game. The Bearcats also rank sixth in defensive field goal percentage. Cincinnati has been a strong Under play when on the road. The Under has cashed a whopping 75 percent of the time during their last 64 away contests. Temple is respectable defensively, too, and catch the Bearcats down backup point guard Cane Broome, who was averaging nearly 10 points a game and three assists per game | |||||||
01-03-18 | East Carolina v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Yes, this is a low total. But it's not low enough given how bad these teams are offensively. East Carolina ranks 332nd in scoring averaging 65.6 points. South Florida is even worse averaging 63.8 points. What makes this worthy of an Under play is not just these team's lack of scoring, but tempo. Each team plays a slow-paced game and commits a lot of turnovers. Both are much stronger on defense than they are on offense. South Florida is even more defensive-minded at home where the Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times. | |||||||
01-02-18 | Nebraska +8.5 v. Northwestern | 70-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Northwestern isn't anything special neither talent-wise nor size-wise. The Wildcats also hold just a minimal home court advantage with their on-campus arena being renovated. This is forcing them to play their home games in Rosemont at the huge AllState Arena. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Washington v. UCLA -9 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Washington is just 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 Pac-12 games. But the Huskies caught the attention of UCLA with an 88-81 road win against USC this past Friday. That was the Huskies' first Pac-12 road victory in nearly two seasons. The Burins are 7-1 at home this season and have covered eight of the last 11 times versus the Huskies. Mike Hopkins has turned around the Huskies in his first season. But I don't see Washington being there yet for this huge early-season conference road matchup. The Bruins are averaging nearly 84 points a game with a balanced attack and a lot of height. It will be too much for Washington at this stage. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Utah v. Oregon State +1 | 66-64 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Oregon State is extremely tough at Gill Coliseum. The Beavers have covered in their last four meetings against Utah. They are 11-2 against the Utes in their last 13 home games versus them. The Utes are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. I don't see Utah pulling off back-to-back road wins in Oregon after it snapped Oregon's 25-game home win streak with a 66-56 win against the Ducks two days ago. Oregon State is 8-1 at home this season. The Beavers have won their last six at Gill Coliseum with the average victory margin being 11.8 points. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Texas State v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 136.5 | 53-48 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Texas State has gone Under in eight of its last 11 games. It's not a fluke. Only nine teams take more time per possession to shoot than Texas State. The Bobcats rank 27th defensively holding foes to 63.5 points. So that's a powerful Under combination. Coastal Carolina plays at a deliberate pace, too. The teams met twice last season and the total went Under both times by a combined 50 points. | |||||||
12-30-17 | Vanderbilt v. Florida UNDER 146.5 | Top | 74-81 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Maybe because Vanderbilt went into Christmas break hot averaging 86.5 points in its last two games. But this total is too high given the quality of Florida's defense and recent history between these two teams. The average combined total during the past three meetings in regulation is 131.3 points.The Gators should be extremely motivated to stop the Commodores, too, in a triple revenge spot. Despite their recent hot shooting, Vanderbilt ranks 312th in shooting percentage at 41.1. The Under has cashed in 15 of Vanderbilt's last 18 road games. Florida has gone Under in its last five games. Neither team has played in more than a week so their shooting figures to be rusty, also. | |||||||
12-29-17 | Utah v. Oregon -10 | 66-56 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Utah isn't ready for Oregon. The 10-3 Ducks are holding foes to less than 39 percent shooting from the field while averaging 85.3 points per game. Utah can't match that. Utah has failed to step up against elite type foes losing to UNLV by 27 points, to Butler by 12 and to BYU by 12. The Ducks have defeated the Utes during the past nine meetings, including sweeping them last season. | |||||||
12-28-17 | San Francisco v. San Diego UNDER 131 | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
I always think defense when San Diego is involved. The Toreros are No. 1 in 3-point defense, rank 12th in fewest points allowed per game and are eighth in defensive field goal percentage. San Francisco is improved defensively allowing 66.3 points a game and rank in the top 65 in defensive efficiency. Neither offense is very good. The intensity should be up as this is a West Coast Conference matchup. The Under has won in 12 of San Francisco's last 16 WCC games. The Under has cashed in 11 of San Diego's past 13 conference games. So I see this total as opening too high. The Under should be good all the way to 125. | |||||||
12-28-17 | Louisiana Tech +9 v. Western Kentucky | 68-69 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
This is the Conference USA opener for both teams - and it's too many points for Western Kentucky to be laying. | |||||||
12-22-17 | Texas State -2.5 v. Rice | 74-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
I conceed Rice has played the more difficult schedule of the two teams. But power rating-wise, Texas State is the better team. Statistics bear this out. The Bobcats give up 12 fewer points per game than Rice and score four more points per contest. Rice is looking forward to Christmas break. The Owls are 1-5 in their last six games. Rice has a losing record at home, too. The Owls' lone home victories were against non-board teams St. Edward's and St. Thomas. Texas State and Rice have one common opponent - Texas Rio Grande Valley. Texas State rolled past the Vaqueros, 75-58, while Rice lost to them, 69-67. | |||||||
12-21-17 | Cal-Irvine v. Idaho UNDER 136.5 | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
Cal Irvine is coming off a bad loss to Montana. But the game before that the Anteaters held St. Mary's to seven points under its scoring average and 41.1 percent shooting from the floor. The Gaels have the 16th-highest field goal percentage in the nation at 50.9. Point being Irvine can play defense. So can Idaho, which ranks 28th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage. Both team's defenses far outshine their offenses. The Under is 18-7-1 in Idaho's last 26 non-league games. Yes, the total is low. But it's not low enough. | |||||||
12-20-17 | North Texas v. Georgetown -9.5 | 63-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
I see this as a bounce back spot for Georgetown and a letdown spot for North Texas. The Hoyas suffered their first loss in nine games when they lost to Syracuse in overtime this past Saturday. There's no shame in losing to the Orangemen. But there would be shame in losing at home to North Texas. Patrick Ewing should have Georgetown on alert for this foe. North Texas is off an 86-83 victory against San Diego this past Saturday winning as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Mean Green had lost seven straight true road games in a row, including going 0-4 this season, before springing the upset. Among the Mean Green's road defeats this season is a 14-point loss to Nebraska. | |||||||
12-19-17 | Dayton v. St. Mary's -10.5 | 54-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
St. Mary's ranks third in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency, has the second lowest turnover rate in the country and ranks 16th in the nation in shooting percentage. The Gaels also are ranked 12th in free throw percentage and 34th in 3-point percentage. Jock Landale is one of the best players in the country averaging 21.6 points a game and 9.5 rebounds. So the Gaels definitely have the offense to cover this spread. This matchup sets up well for the Gaels to do just that. Dayton is playing just its second true road game. The Flyers last were on the road 16 days ago. The Flyers have a lot of inexperience. They are struggling to find their identity under first-year coach Anthony Grant. The Flyers don't have much height either. They are going to have problems dealing with the 6-foot-10 Landale. The Flyers managed to hold off Georgia State, 88-83, in overtime during their last game as a six-point home favorite on Saturday. But they have not won back-to-back games all season. | |||||||
12-18-17 | Charlotte +3 v. East Carolina | 69-50 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Charlotte is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row. The 49ers will be well rested having been idle a week. The team should play hard here for interim coach Houston Fancher following Mark Price getting fired. That was a shock. But it should shake Charlotte up. Charlotte holds a backcourt edge. East Carolina is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. Charlotte has underachieved. The 49ers are better than they showed. So the 49ers needed to be shook up. | |||||||
12-17-17 | San Francisco +7.5 v. Stanford | 59-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Stanford hasn't been very good this season. The Cardinal are a below .500 team and own few quality victories. San Francisco won't lack motivation against their nearby Pac-12 rival. This is just a short 35-mile road trip for the Dons. San Francisco is on a 3-game win streak, including beating UC Davis by 13 points in their last game. The Dons won 20 games last season. They are more worthy of than this big line shows. | |||||||
12-16-17 | North Texas v. San Diego UNDER 135.5 | 86-83 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
It's rarely wrong to look Under with San Diego. The Toreros have gone Under in 17 of their last 21 games. San Diego has this below the total mark because of its outstanding defense. It's a primary reason why the Toreros are off to their best start since joining Division I 38 years ago. San Diego is holding foes to 59.6 points a game. Only six teams in the country allow fewer points per game. The Toreros also rank third in the nation in 3-point defense and seventh in defensive field goal percentage. The oddsmaker knows all of this of course. So the key to making this Under work is pace. Neither team plays up-tempo. North Texas averages 77.7 points, but the Mean Green are double-digit 'dogs. I see the Toreros controlling pace while playing with a lead. | |||||||
12-16-17 | UNLV -7 v. Pacific | 81-76 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Pacific is improved, but the Tigers are far from being in UNLV's class. The Rebels are too athletic and have too much scoring for Pacific to handle. UNLV is averaging 91.5 points a game, fifth-best in the country, and rank No. 3 in rebounding. Pacific is just 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games. | |||||||
12-16-17 | UNLV v. Pacific OVER 157 | 81-76 | Push | 0 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
UNLV averages 91.5 points per game. Only four teams average more per game. The Rebels have gone Over the total in all but one of their 10 lined games this season. So I'm going to ride with that. Pacific is playing fast under Damon Stoudamire. The Tigers have gone Over in seven of their 10 lined contests. I see both teams running and pushing tempo. | |||||||
12-16-17 | CS-Fullerton +7.5 v. California | 89-95 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
California is 4-6 under first-year coach Wyking Jones, but off an improbable 63-62 win against San Diego State. The Golden Bears were 16-point road 'dogs in that game. Cal still could be celebrating that win. If that's the case, the Bears will be in serious trouble because Fullerton is an underrated foe. The Titans have won five in a row. They've defeated Harvard and Portland and have been at their point spread best versus sub .500 foes covering eight of the last nine times against them. Upsetting San Diego State aside, the Golden Bears just aren't that good. Among their losses are games to Chaminade and Central Arkansas. | |||||||
12-13-17 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Bradley UNDER 130.5 | Top | 46-86 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
My first look is Under when I study teams from the Missouri Valley Conference. With Bradley hosting this opponent, Little Rock, Under strongly jumps out. Bradley is strong defensively and neither team has much of a scoring attack. Both are half-court oriented, too, so the tempo should be slow. All four of Bradley's lined home games this season have gone Under, while LIttle Rock has gone Under in eight of its last nine road games. | |||||||
12-12-17 | Columbia +11.5 v. Boston College | Top | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Boston College is in a huge letdown spot and Columbia is far more competitve than its 1-9 record might indicate. The Eagles took down then No. 1 ranked Duke, 89-84, this past Saturday as 15-point home 'dogs behind a rare sellout crowd. The Eagles had a week to prepare for that game. They've had two days to get down from the skies to play this game. I see Boston College being very flat here and taking Columbia lightly. That would be a mistake. Boston College isn't that good. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games even with that victory against Duke. BC has lost to Texas Tech, Nebraska and Providence by a combined 40 points. This also will be the second game the Eagles won't have Deontae Hawkins, their top rebounder and third-leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. Columbia has had seven of its nine losses come by 10 points or fewer, including a four-point overtime loss to Connecticut. Another defeat was by 15 points to top-ranked Villanova. The Lions are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games when taking on a home team with a winning percentage better than .600. | |||||||
12-10-17 | Missouri State v. Oral Roberts UNDER 143 | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Missouri State ranks 33rd in defensive scoring giving up 63.2 points a game. The Bears should have no trouble handling Oral Roberts, which just was held to 60 points by Southern Nazarene, a subdivision team, in its last game. Like most Missouri Valley Conference schools, the Bears favor a methodical pace rather than go up-tempo. Oral Roberts is among the bottom 50 schools in pace. So I don't see many points being put up here. | |||||||
12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
I see Ball State in a letdown spot after upsetting Notre Dame as an 18-point road underdog in its last game. The Crusaders, on the other hand, are in bounce back mode. They were 8-0 until their last game when they were buried by Purdue. The Crusaders have covered 11 of the past 16 times following a loss. | |||||||
12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4.5 | 55-59 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm not high on Wisconsin this year. The Badgers are young and not overly talented. Greg Gard is not Bo Ryan. I like Temple in this spot. The Owls haven't played up to expectations losing twice as road chalk during their past three games. They are better than they've shown, which has made this line shorter than I thought. I see the Owls displaying their full potential in this spot. | |||||||
12-05-17 | Gonzaga v. Villanova UNDER 148.5 | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
It's easy to think offense in this marquee matchup of fourth-ranked Villanova against 13th-rated Gonzaga. After all, Villanova averages 86.4 points while the Bulldogs average 92.9 points a game, third-best in the nation. But what's overlooked is the high quality of defense both teams play. It's not a fluke that the Under has cashed in 68 percent of Villanova's last 34 games. Keep in mind, too, this is a neutral site game in spacious Madison Square Garden with its difficult shooting backdrop. | |||||||
12-05-17 | Winthrop +12 v. Georgia | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Winthrop has the offense to hang in against Georgia. The Eagles scored 85 points against Auburn and average 90.4 points per game. Winthrop has talent with Anders Broman and Xavier Cooks. Georgia may not have its full intensity after upsetting Marquette on the road in its last game this past Saturday. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS following a victory and have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 home contests. | |||||||
12-03-17 | Kansas State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 139.5 | 84-79 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm not impressed with Vanderbilt's offense and Kansas State's mix-and-match defense is tough particularly against non-conference opponents. The Under has cashed in 67 percent of Kansas State's last 53 non-league matchups. The Wildcats have held five of their seven opponents this season to under 60 points. A major plus to going Under in this matchup is that both teams prefer a slow tempo. | |||||||
12-01-17 | Illinois +6 v. Northwestern | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Northwestern has been an early season disappointment opening 4-3, including losing its past two games. Illinois started fast until losing 80-73 to Wake Forest. The Illini are 4-1 in their last five meetings against the Wildcats, winning both matchups last season. The Illini are playing up-tempo under new coach Brad Underwood. So they won't get caught up in Northwestern's slow-down tactics. This is a very early Big Ten meeting so points figure to matter a lot. | |||||||
11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa +1 | 68-77 | Win | 102 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
UNLV has been a major early surprise. But the Rebels have played lesser competition except for Utah. The Rebels like to get up and down the floor. Northern Iowa is a tough foe for them because the Panthers play much slower. The Rebels are 5-18-3 ATS in their last 26 road contests. Unlike UNLV, Northern Iowa is battle-tested having faced Villanova, SMU and NC State. The Panthers dictated pace against those foes - and that pace was slow. Northern Iowa has held its last six opponents to 43 percent or worse shooting from the floor. The Rebels may not have the proper focus either with a rivalry showdown on tap gainst Arizona. | |||||||
11-28-17 | Illinois v. Wake Forest UNDER 162 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
Illinois is a top-25 scoring team and Wake Forest is coming off its highest shooting percentage game under Danny Manning connecting on 61.5 percent against UNC Greensboro. So the oddsmaker has set a high total. The total is too high in my view. This is Illinois' first road game and first decent opponent. The Illini is averaging 89 points - all at home and against bad defensive teams. What's overlooked about them is the defensive improvement they've shown under first-year head coach Brad Underwood. The Illini ranks No. 2 in the nation in turnover margin and fifth in forcing turnovers. Wake Forest has played against weak defensive opponents, too. | |||||||
11-27-17 | Oakland v. Oral Roberts OVER 148 | 93-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
This teams have met six times, including last season. There never has been an Under. Oakland traditionally is a high scoring team. The Golden Grizzlies are playing at a fast pace again this season and are due for a big offensive showing after road games against Syracuse and Kansas. Oakland can take advantage of Oral Roberts' weakness on the boards. Oral Roberts is coming off a bad game against Penn State shooting just 33 percent from the field. The Over has cashed in eight of Oral Robets' past nine home contests. This one is about offense not defense and the due factor kicking in for both teams. | |||||||
11-24-17 | Canisius v. Texas State UNDER 140 | 68-62 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
These are two Under the total teams - and that's the way I'm going here. The Under has cashed in five of Texas State's last six games, while Canisius is 7-2-1 to the Under in its last 10 games. Note that this matchup is at a neutral site, which also is a plus for the Under since neither team is familiar with the court and rims. The Golden Griffins are 8-3-1 to the Under in their last 12 neutral site games. The Golden Griffins don't play at such a slow pace as Texas State does. But they do have a tendency to play at the pace of their opponent. So look for a slow, methodical type of matchup that eats a lot of clock and results in a low-scoring result. | |||||||
11-21-17 | Davidson v. Nevada OVER 160.5 | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
Not only are these two outstanding 3-point shooting teams, but neither team forces many turnovers. Davidson has only committed just seven turnovers in its two games. The Wildcats lead the nation in 3-point percentage and in scoring at 109 points per game. Nevada is shooting 43 percent from 3-point range and can take advantage of Davidson's lack of height. The Wolf Pack have firepower from all of their starters. They are averaging 88 points in two home games. This game is going to be all about offense and the total isn't high enough to reflect that. | |||||||
11-20-17 | South Dakota State v. Wyoming UNDER 164 | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
South Dakota State is stepping up here taking on Wyoming. The Jackrabbits are not used to facing this many athletic rim protectors and wingspans. The Cowboys have been playing strong perimeter defense, too, Oregon State could make only 4 of 20 shots from 3-point range in a 75-66 loss in Wyoming's previous game. Wyoming has some good scoring options, but are more efficient on defense, especially at this early stage | |||||||
11-17-17 | Quinnipiac v. Colorado UNDER 150 | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Colorado is a monster 17-point favorite here against Quinnipiac. That's important because the Buffaloes could be playing three games in three day depending on how they fare. Colorado will play either Drake or Wake Forest on Saturday. So the Buffaloes figure to give their starters plenty of rest in a blowup situation, which is likely. This game is being played at a neutral site, at Liberty University in Virginia. So neither team is familar with the settings and rims. Quinnipiac is stepping up in class after opening against a pair of Ivy League teams, Dartmouth and Brown. | |||||||
11-16-17 | Providence v. Washington UNDER 150 | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Providence is a strong defensive team. But Friars coach Ed Cooley wasn't happy with how his team defended in an 86-74 loss to Minnesota on Monday. Look for the Friars to play excellent defense here. Washington showed a slower tempo in its first two games under new coach Mike Hopkins than last season under Lorenzo Romar. This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. Providence is 21-7 to the Under in its last 28 non-conference games. Washington has gone Under 10 of the last 12 times it has played at a neutral site. | |||||||
11-14-17 | Nebraska-Omaha v. New Mexico OVER 161.5 | 71-103 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
New Mexico opened its season with a 147-76 win against Northern New Mexico. OK, Northern New Mexico isn't exactly Duke. But 147 points is 147 points. The Lobos are a run and press team playing very up-tempo under new coach, Paul Weir. Weir prefers this style in order to offset his team's lack of size. Nebraska Omaho certainly will run with the Lobos. They've always been a high tempo team. Nebraska Omaho opened with a 108-89 road loss to Oklahoma. This is a high total, but it's still not high enough. So expect an Over. | |||||||
11-14-17 | Purdue -5 v. Marquette | 86-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Purdue is far more experienced than Marquette with six of its top seven scorers back. I believe Purdue will have a stronger focus, too, for this matchup. The Boilermakers also have a height advantage. | |||||||
11-14-17 | Lipscomb +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 64-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Lipscomb isn't being given enough credit here. The Bison is tough. Lipscomb has mde good progress under coach Casey Alexander. The team went 20-13 last season, finishing second in the Atlantic Sun and have nine of its top 10 returning scorers back. Rob Marberry and Garrison Mathews are excellent players for Lipscomb. Mathews is averaging 31 points in two games this season. The team ranked ninth nationally in scoring last season and has improved its defense. Alabama is nicked up and faces the distraction of playing in its first home game of the season. This is going to be a far closer game than the oddsmaker envisioned with this spread. | |||||||
11-10-17 | Texas A&M v. West Virginia -6 | Top | 88-65 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country. The Mountaineers won 28 games last season reaching the Sweet 16. West Virginia defeated five ranked teams, including second-ranked Kansas. Texas A&M finished 16-15 last season and didn't play in a postseason tournament. The Aggies are projected to be much improved this season even though they will be breaking in four new starters. The Aggies are young and not familiar with each other at this beginning stage. This is a rough way for the Aggies to begin the season. The Aggies also are going to be without Robert Williams, their best player, and point guard JJ Caldwell. Both are suspended. The Aggies are going to have problems with West Virginia's unique press especially so without their point guard, this being the first game and being unfamiliar with the Mountaineers. | |||||||
04-03-17 | North Carolina -125 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
I predicted the Tar Heels would win the national title and I'm certainly not backing down now. This isn't a fade on Gonzaga, but a play on North Carolina. Both teams have impressive talent and similar offensive skills. The Tar Heels hold the experience edge and rebounding advantage. Rebounding has been a weakness at times for the Zags this season. No team gets more offensive rebounds than North Carolina. Roy Williams has been to six NCAA championship games. This is Mark Few's first. That can't be underestimated. The last time a West Coast team won the NCAA title was Arizona 20 years ago. The last program to win a championship during its first tile game appearance was Connecticut in 1999. The Zags are 0-7 versus No. 1 seeds losing by an averaging of 14.4 points. The Tar Heels also played in a far tougher conference and also had to go through a tougher NCAA Tournament pairing than Gonzaga. | |||||||
04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 2 m | Show |
Oregon has been riding a lot of momentum. But North Carolina has a height and talent edge. The week layoff takes away Oregon's momentum, too. So I'm going with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has far more Big Dance experience than Oregon. The Tar Heels nearly won the NCAA Tournament last season losing on late basket in the title game. Oregon's last Final Four NCAA Tourney experience came in 1939. This is the matchup where the Ducks are really going to miss Chris Boucher, out for the season after sustaining a knee injury during a semifinal game in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. Boucher's absence leaves Jordan Bell as the lone quality big man the Ducks have. Bell has had an outstanding NCAA Tournament, but he's not going to be able to hold off the Tar Heels on the boards. North Carolina has the best rebound differential of any team since Michigan State in 2001 at plus 13. No major conference team has come close since then of having that big of a difference on the boards. The Ducks have advanced this far in the tournament by outrebounding each of their opponents. That's not going to happen here. | |||||||
03-28-17 | TCU -2.5 v. UCF | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
TCU played a more difficult schedule that Central Florida, carries a higher RPI ranking, is playing its best ball and I trust Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs' passing ability to dent the Knights' outstanding defense. TCU is an excellent passing team and has a backcourt edge. I really like its ball movement. The Horned Frogs averaged 17 assists per game. Dixon has had ample practice and preparation time to combat the freak presence of ace defender 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. The Horned Frogs can create good matchups based on their passing ability. Fall has to deal with fatigue never having played this many games before. I just don't believe he'll be as big a factor as perceived and Central Florida doesn't have enough offense to compensate if its defense isn't playing at a high level. | |||||||
03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This game isn't going to be pretty. It's going to be an intense, grind-out, defensive matchup between two SEC foes who know each other well having split their two games this season. So I want South Carolina's defense, senior star guard Sindarius Thornwell and the points going for me. The Gamecocks ranked fifth nationally in turnovers forced per game. They've continued their outstanding defense in the tournament. Thornwell was the SEC Player of the Year and he hasn't disappointed in the Big Dance stepping up even more to average 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while also making 10 of 22 3-pointers. He'll be the best player on the court. South Carolina displayed its defensive dominance in taking down Baylor, 70-50, on Friday holding the Bears to 30.4 percent from the floor. Florida had a much tougher game on Friday sneaking past Wisconsin in overtime, 84-83, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Chris Chiozza. The Gators blew a late 12-point lead and it remains open to discussion how much energy that game took out of them both physically and mentally. The short turnaround is a major advantage for South Carolina. | |||||||
03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Xavier is on a surprisingly great run. Gonzaga has yet to play its "A" game in the NCAA Tournament. The due factor is going to kick in here. Look for the Bulldogs to roll past Xavier by double-digits. The 11th-seeded Musketeers kept their miracle of winning the NCAA Tournament alive by closing on a 9-0 run to steal a 73-71 win from second-seed Arizona Thursday. Xavier and LSU of 1987 are the only teams in tournament history to take out three top six seeds during their first three games. That takes a big toll, though. And this is a quick turnaround. It has been a great run for Xavier. Much props to the Musketeers, but I see their season ending here. The team has too many imperfections, a size disadvantage with just one starter taller than 6-foot-6 and a key injury that will hurt them here with starting point guard Edmond Sumner missing after being lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in late January. Standout wing Trevon Bluiett isn't 100 percent either from an ankle injury. Critics of Gonzaga said the Bulldogs couldn't handle West Virginia's pressure defense. Gonzaga did. Now the Bulldogs face Xavier's zone defenses. They'll be ready for that, too, with a necessary inside/outside game that ranked No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and the 3-point accuracy to rank 68th in 3-point percentage. | |||||||
03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak. The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bruins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here. | |||||||
03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | Top | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 62 h 56 m | Show |
Losing in their opening game of the Big 12 Conference Tournament is the best thing that happened to Kansas. That was two weeks ago and extra rest and motivation by that early exit have propelled the Jayhawks to peak at just the right time. Kansas already is arguably the best team in the country and the Jayhawks have played extremely well in the NCAA Tournament blowing by UC-Davis and defeating Michigan State by 20 points. That pushed the Jayhawks' ATS mark to 6-1 when laying points in the NCAA Tourney. Now the Jayhawks get another Big Ten team, Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the Spartans Big Dance Sweet 16 pedigree and while their defense is solid, it ranks among the bottom in steals and forcing turnovers. Kansas has the superior offense and it's in full throttle. The Jayhawks are averaging 87 points during their last five games. The Boilermakers' backcourt can't match Kansas' guard trio of Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson and Devonte' Graham. Those three are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Mason is especially rolling scoring 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Technically this is a netural site game being played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The reality is that it's almost a home game for Kansas being just 35 miles east of Lawrence, home of the Jayhawks. Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games, too, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS the past seven times. | |||||||
03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
Georgia Tech isn't the same team on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 away from home. Yes, that's right. Georgia Tech has exactly two road victories. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games. The Rebels have had to play their first two NIT games on the road. They are coming off an 85-80 victory against heavyweight Syracuse, while Georgia Tech has had the benefit of playing its first two NIT games at home beating disjointed Indiana - which just fired its coach - and lightly regarded Belmont. It's not just having home-court. That's accounted for in the line. I like the way Mississippi is peaking. The Rebels ended the regular season defeating South Carolina, which has reached the Sweet 16. They followed that with a victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament, a one-point loss to Arkansas and then road wins against Monmouth and Syracuse in the NIT. The Rebels are getting outstanding guard play from Terence Davis and Deandre Burnett. The two combined for 49 points against Syracuse, including hitting 11 3-pointers in burning the Orange's fabled zone defense. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Tech, which relies on defense to win. Davis has been hot for a while averaging 18.3 points during his last 11 games. Ole Miss also has Sebastian Saiz. He led the SEC in rebounding, ranking fifth in the nation. He's shot only 34 percent from the floor, though, during his past four games. He's better than a 46 percent shooter on the season. So he's due to play better giving the Rebels an inside-outside game. | |||||||
03-20-17 | Utah Valley v. Rice -4.5 | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Rice is home here. That's bad news for Utah Valley, which is 7-10 on the road. Rice has too much offense for the Wolverines. The Owls ranked 24th in the country averaging 81.6 points a game. They are 13-5 at home. | |||||||
03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon UNDER 140 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
First off the numbers are there for both teams. Rhode Island ranks 33rd defensively giving up 65.1 points a game. The Rams rank No. 2 in blocked shots and No. 3 in defending against 3-pointers. They are 26th in defensive field goal percentage. They also won't have to worry about Chris Boucher, the Ducks' third-leading scorer out with a torn ACL. Oregon also surrenders just 65 points per game. The Ducks led the nation in blocked shots while ranking 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point defense. Numbers are numbers. They also have to fit the matchup for them to work. That's the case here. Rhode Island isn't skilled enough offensively to take the attack to Oregon. The Rams are merely an average offensive team ranking 109th in 2-point shots, 239th in 3-pointers and 287th in free throw percentage. Oregon is too strong defensively to give the Rams any crack at the basket via fastbreak, or by not taking care of the basketball. So the Rams are going to have to create their own openings and good shots. That's not their strength. They also have a short bench. So expect the Rams to be very methodical here taking their time in setting up their shots. What the Rams do is play with all-out effort. They are well-coached under Danny Hurley with a fundamentally sound defense and underrated size. Boucher is a major loss for Oregon. He was the Ducks' third-leading scorer, No. 2 rebounder and top shot blocker. However, his replacement, Kavell Bigby-Williams, is 6-foot-11 and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. So the Ducks' loss is more on offense than defense. Another plus for the under. | |||||||
03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -112 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Northwestern was lucky to escape Vanderbilt in its first round NCAA Tournament game Thursday. The Wildcats are NCAA Tourney novices. This also is their fifth game in 10 days.They are not good enough, nor ready to step up to face an opponent this good. Gonzaga could be the best team in the country and are far more tournament tested. I find this spread short as I see the Bulldogs burying Northwestern. While Northwestern is on Cloud Nine after getting past the Commodores, Gonzaga is in a kill-mood. The Bulldogs defeated South Dakota State by 20 points in their opening Big Dance game nearly covering a 23-point spread despite a flat performance. Bulldogs coach Mark Few was not happy with his team shooting less than 40 percent from the floor, missing 10 of 18 fgree throws and committing more turnovers than assists. Look for guard Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the Bulldogs to play far better. Gonzaga is superior to Wisconsin and the Badgers waxed the Wildcats, 76-48, last Saturday in the Big 10 Conference Tournament. Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. | |||||||
03-17-17 | UC-Davis +24 v. Kansas | Top | 62-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
UC Davis is a team I've followed being on the West Coast and familar with the Big West Conference. The Aggies are better than perceived. They have athleticism, can play defense - holding their last four foes to less than 40 percent shooting - and have balanced scoring. The Aggies also won't be nearly as rusty as Kansas having defeated North Carolina Central this past Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Aggies are excited to play in the NCAA Tournament, a first for them. A full effort from them should be forthcoming. Kansas has a different goal and that's to win not just this game but the entire tournament, a feat the Jayhawks are capable of achieving. So Kansas doesn't have the need to go all out every minute of this game with its starters. The Jayhawks also must deal with a rust factor. This is just their second game in 13 days. Kansas last played nine days ago and wasn't sharp losing to TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Kansas is a mighty power, but it hasn't defeated an opponent by more than 19 points in its last 22 games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 the past five times laying 13 or more points, which coincides with their not being a strong favorite going 5-12-1 ATS the past 18 times as chalk. Bottom line is the Jayhawks haven't proven worthy of being good in the role of favorite and have no incentive to cover this big of a margin here. | |||||||
03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Seton Hall is a sleeper teram and dangerous. Look for the Pirates to prove that here. Unlike last season when Seton Hall peaked in the Big East Conference Tournament knocking off Villanova on its way to capturing the title and then losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in a flat performance following that great accomplishment, the Pirates are rested and determined to make it farther in the tournament. The Pirates lost a two-point game to Villanova in the second round of the Big East Tourney this season. Seton Hall now didn't use up all of its energy and focus in the Big East Tourney yet still is playing extremely well. The Pirates had won five in a row until falling by to Villanova. Among those victories were wins against NCAA Tournament teams Xavier, Butler and Marquette. Xavier and Butler each won their opening Big Dance game on Thursday and Marquette plays today. The Pirates also open against Arkansas not Gonzaga like last season. The Razorbacks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The last time they covered a spread in a postseason tournament was 2014. Seton Hall held Villanova to 55 points in its Big East Tourney game, which was 22 point below the Wildcats' season average. The Pirates have the necessary ingredients to do well with outstanding guards, experience and 6-foot-10 Angel Delgado in the post. He lead the nation in rebounding and double-doubles. Khadeen Carrington, Madison Jones and Desi Rodriguez are all very good players. | |||||||
03-16-17 | Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
Falling short in the Big Sky championship this past Saturday was a big deal for Weber State. That 93-89 overtime loss stung the Wildcats especially the seniors. Weber State had captured the Big Sky tournament two of the previous three seasons earning the right to play in the NCAA Tournament each time. Now the Wildcats have a short turnaround to travel and play Cal State Fullerton in a first round Collegeinsider.com Tournament game. It's a huge letdown for the Wildcats. I don't see the motivation here. Not so with Fullerton. The Titans finished third in the Big West and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament where they lost to eventual champion UC Davis, a team that just upset North Carolina Central on Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton finished strong winning eight of its last 10 regular season games. The Titans were the hottest team in the league down the stretch. They are excited about hosting this matchup. The Titans have an excellent player in Tre Coggins and are 12-3 at home. The Titans are athletic and play strong defense. Weber State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games. This is what Weber State coach Randy Rahe said about the Titans, "... We've got a challenge. We're going to have to play really well to be competitive with them." | |||||||
03-16-17 | Vanderbilt -115 v. Northwestern | 66-68 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
Not only do I think Vanderbilt is better than Northwestern, but the Commodores have several key intangibles in their favor. First, though, I'm not the only one who believes Vanderbilt is superior. The Commodores were rated higher than Northwestern in the Pomeroy ratings and the RPI rankings have Vanderbilt at 38 compared to 50 for the Wildcats. Never before in their 78-year history have the Wildcats made the NCAA Tournament - until now. Of course there was a huge celebration. Vanderbilt is Big Dance experienced competing in this tournament last year. I'm not sure of Northwestern's mindset especially if it were to fall behind early. Northwestern has a losing record during its past 12 games. Vanderbilt, by contrast, is 11-5 in its last 16 games and 5-1 in its last six. The Commodores have covered eight of their last nine. They also are 17-4 ATS the past 21 times facing foes with a winning mark. Vanderbilt has a strong perimeter defense and is consistent in making 3-pointers. All of the Commodores are adept at canning shots from beyond the arc. That's going to be a problem for Northwestern. | |||||||
03-15-17 | Colorado v. UCF -135 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
Central Florida has a number of factors going that I like. This NIT matchup is a big deal for the Knights, who were picked to finish eighth in the 11-team American Athletic Conference. Instead, Central Florida went 21-11 and 11-7 in league in Johnny Dawkins first year as coach. Dawkins is familar with Colorado having coached the previous eight seasons for Stanford, Pac-12 rivals of Colorado. The Buffaloes knows far less about Central Florida. The Buffaloes aren't that excited about playing in the NIT having postseason play seven consecutive seasons, including going to the NCAA Tournament in four of those years. The Buffaloes also may not have their full focus getting to spend some of their spring break in Florida. The Knights led the nation in defensive field goal percentage holding foes to 36.2 percent shooting. A big factor is 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. He was the AAC's Defensive Player of the Year. Colorado hasn't seen anyone who cand defend the rim like Fall. | |||||||
03-14-17 | CS Bakersfield +10.5 v. California | Top | 73-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Losses in six of their last nine games cost California an NCAA Tournament bid. The Bears' consolation prize is the NIT and hosting Cal Bakersfield in this first round game just two days after getting the highly disappointing news they won't be in the Big Dance. Do you think the Bears are excited to play in this game? I sure don't. This is what Cal coach Cuonzo Martin was quoted as saying: "(The players) were very disappointed and that's the challenge now: to get guys' energy levels up to play a game Tuesday night. They're very disappointed, but it goes with the territory." Cal has plenty of distractions, too. There are coaching rumors surrounding Martin. Senior Jabari Bird, Cal's leading scorer, is questionable due to a concussion. Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb, the team's No. 2 scorer, is considering entering the NBA draft. Bakersfield is a worthy enough opponent to spring a straight-up upset. The Roadrunners won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. They lost in the conference tournament title game to New Mexico State the day after winning a four-overtime semifinal game. The Roadrunners are the type of hard-nosed defensive team that can be most effective against a down-in-the-dumps opponent. They allowed just 63 points per game on 37.3 field goal shooting. Bakersfield is tournament tested, too. The Roadrunners made the NCAA Tournament last season throwing a scare into Final Four participant Oklahoma trailing by just five points with around four minutes left during their opening round game. The Roadrunners have covered seven of the last eight times in an underdog role and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. These two teams last met on Dec. 28, 2014. That was Martin's first year at Berkeley. Bakersfield won, 55-52. The Roadrunners certainly are capable of repeating that feat especially considering the circumstances. Tuesday Free Play Georgia Tech plus 3 hosting Indiana (NIT) Back in November, Indiana was thought of as a possible Final Four contender after pulling off upsets of Kansas and North Carolina while Georgia Tech was considered a lower-rung ACC team. Rewind four months later to now. Georgia Tech has far exceeded expectations nearly making the NCAA Tournament. Indiana still has Final Four hopes - but for the NIT not NCAA. Of course that's disappointing for the Hoosiers. And it's likely they don't take this first-round NIT game as serious as Georgia Tech. Indiana declined to host this game even though it had the opportunity being the higher seed. The company line for turning down playing this matchup at home was renovations to Assembly Hall. The real reason, though, could be apathy and lack of good crowd support with the students off for spring break. The Hoosiers couldn't overcome injuries down the stretch. They lost six of their last eight regular-season games and were eliminated by Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. So not only is Indiana in bad form, but I can't see the Hoosiers caring much about this game. Another distraction are rumors coach Tom Crean is going to leave Indiana possibly for Missouri. Georgia Tech will be motivated. Yellow Jackets' first-year head coach, Josh Pastner, believes it's a tremendous opportunity not only to play in the postseason, but to defeat a name school with a great basketball tradition. It's a home game for the Yellow Jackets and it's going to be on national television. Pastner is so psyched for this game he's offered to pay for the tickets of any student wanting to attend. As added motivation, the Yellow Jackets want to win so they could meet in-state rival Georgia in the second round if the Bulldogs should beat Belmont on Wednesday as expected. Georgia Tech may have played its most embarrassing home game of the season when it lost to Georgia, 60-43, on Dec. 20. The Yellow Jackets want revenge. The motivation angle works for the Yellow Jackets here, but are they actually good enough to beat Indiana? I certainly believe so with the key being they are playing at McCamish Pavilion. Georgia Tech went 14-4 there against Division I opponents posting home victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and Syracuse. Georgia Tech achieved its success with the nation's seventh most-efficient defense. The Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in defensive field goal percentage. They are led by 6-foot-10 junior center Ben Lammers, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Indiana is far more offensively inclined. The Hoosiers need to shoot well to win. They had problems with Wisconsin, the last strong defensive club they faced scoring just 60 points against the Badgers. Keep in mind, too, this was very much a down year in the Big Ten. The Yellow Jackets have been underrated all season. They've covered 12 of their last 16 games. They are a worthy underdog here. | |||||||
03-12-17 | Rhode Island v. VCU | Top | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
I'm going to roll with Rhode Island, which is playing its best basketball. The Rams are peaking winning their last seven games. Included among these victories is a 69-59 home victory against VCU that was achieved five games ago on Feb. 25. The Rams prevailed by double-digits in that win as 3 1/2-point favorites despite making just 35 percent of their shots from the floor. Rhode Island needs this victory to gain an automatic seed into the NCAA Tournament. A loss here to VCU could keep Rhode Island from making the tournament. VCU had to go overtime to beat Richmond in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Saturday. That was the later game, too. Rhode Island had a much easier time waltzing past Davidson by 24 points in the earlier Saturday semifinal game. I like that Rhode Island is hitting its ceiling, has less of a fatigue factor than VCU and is deep in the backcourt. | |||||||
03-11-17 | New Mexico State -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield | Top | 70-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is the big rivalry matchup in the Western Athletic Conference. New Mexico State is playing at a high level winning its last four games all by 14 points or more. The Aggies have 27 wins, tying for the most victories in school history. The Aggies have revenge for a buzzer-beater loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the WAC Tournament Finals last season. The Aggies had won the previous four conference tournaments before that defeat. Only one New Mexico State player logged more than 33 minutes in the Aggies' 78-60 waltz over Missouri-Kansas City in Friday night's semifinal in Las Vegas. Bakersfield had it far, far rougher in the other semifinal game Friday night. The Roadrunners nipped Utah Valley, 81-80, in four overtimes! Jaylin Airington, the Roadrunners' leading scorer, played 49 minutes. Dedrick Basile, the team's third-leading scorer, was on the court for 53 minutes. Utah Valley was 6-8 in conference and only seeded fourth because Grand Canyon was ineligible for the postseason. The Aggies play an up-tempo style. The timing couldn't be worse for Bakersfield. I believe the Aggies are the superior team and now they have a huge situational element in their favor. | |||||||
03-10-17 | TCU v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 63-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
Tremendous job by TCU in stunning top-seeded Kansas, 85-82, yesterday in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs they have no time to celebrate such a heady accomplishment. Iowa State is by far the superior team and catches TCU in a big letdown spot. The Horned Frogs had never defeated a top-three overall ranked team in 17 previous tries. They had entered the Big 12 tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. TCU was 2-10 the past 12 times versus .500 foes before upsetting the Jayhawks. Now the Horned Frogs' season has been made. The Cyclones are 7-1 in their last eight games, including rolling past TCU, 84-71, at home on Feb. 18. Iowa State has that needed excellent senior point guard in Monte Morris, who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not being named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for nation's top point guard. | |||||||
03-10-17 | Michigan v. Purdue -3 | 74-70 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
Sometimes a near death experience can give you an emotional lift and provide a spark to having a great day. That was the case for the Michigan basketball team on Thursday. The Wolverines arrived the morning of their Thursday morning game against Illinois in their Big Ten Conference game and shot 53.6 percent from the floor in dispatching the Illini, 75-55. It was a remarkable performance from the Wolverines considering the harrowing circumstances they had just endured. Michigan's team plane left for Washington D.C., site of the tournament, on Wednesday. However, the charter plane careened off the runway during takeoff. After enduring a sleepless night with travel plans not firmed up, the Wolverines were able to catch an early Thursday morning bumpy flight and then endure a 90-minute bus ride to Verizon Center. Despite not having the benefit of the usual film work and walk-through game preparations, Michigan took the court after the start time was pushed back 20 minutes and played one of its finest games. The Wolverines were loose knowing how fortunate they were. But Michigan also was a five-point favorite in that game. Now, the Wolverines have to play an early morning game again this time against a far superior opponent and without the adrenaline and life rush they experienced yesterday. The Wolverines also have the contentment of knowing they are almost certain to be picked for the NCAA Tournament. Purdue is 8-1 in its last nine games. The Boilermakers' lone loss during this span came to Michigan on the road on Feb. 25. Purdue wants revenge. Prior to that defeat, the Boilermakers were 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times facing Michigan. Purdue has made the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament each of the past two years. The Boilermakers have the best player on the court in Big Ten Player of the Year Caleb Swanigan. Purdue has been a huge money-maker when laying points going 21-7-3 (75 percent) the past 31 times. | |||||||
03-09-17 | San Diego State v. Boise State +1.5 | 87-68 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
San Diego State was lucky to escape a monster upset try by UNLV last night and even luckier to cover a big spread thanks to overtime. Don't look for the Aztecs to be as lucky this time around. Boise State is the more rested squad having last played on Saturday and the Broncos are the better team with a cast of veterans, who have proven themselves on the road. Boise State has defeated a number of foes away from home, including Loyola Marymount, Utah State, UNLV at Thomas & Mack where this game is at, Wyoming, Colorado State and Air Force. San Diego State's fan base is down from past seasons. The Aztecs have a terrible 8-15 ATS mark, including 2-7 ATS on the road. And that includes their lucky cover against UNLV yesterday. That was the Aztecs' first away victory in more than a month. The Aztecs got away with shooting 33 percent from the floor, but were bailed out by making 21 of 26 free throws for 81 percent. On the season, San Diego State ranks 313th in shooting percentage and makes 70.4 percent of its free throws. Boise State averages eight more points per game than San Diego State and is the better free throw shooting team. | |||||||
03-09-17 | CS-Northridge v. CS-Fullerton -2 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
These teams have gone in different directions leading up to the conference tournament. Cal State-Fullerton is 8-2 in its last 10 Big West games, covering six of their last seven. Cal State-Northridge has dropped six of its last seven. The Matadors' losses have coincided with losing big man Rakim Lubin to a torn Achilles on Feb. 4. He was the team's second-leading rebounder. The Titans have a size advantage and a very good senior guard in Tre Coggins. Fullerton also holds a talent edge, which was proven when the teams met this past Saturday at Northridge. The Titans beat the Matadors, 86-78. Northridge is 3-13 ATS following a loss. | |||||||
03-08-17 | UNLV v. San Diego State -9 | Top | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
I can't see UNLV staying within double-digits of San Diego State in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. The matchup is at Thomas & Mack Center, home of UNLV. But that won't matter. The Rebels lost their fan support weeks ago on their way to losing 12 of their last 15 games. The Rebels are poorly coached, don't play smart and aren't physically tough. Those are all fatal weaknesses going against San Diego State. The Aztecs are well-coached, rank 16th defensively in the country and have reached the tournament finals seven of the past eight years. UNLV is likely to be missing forward Tyrell Green, who is doubtful due to a knee injury. He didn't practice on Tuesday. Green is UNLV's second-leading scorer and No. 3 on the team in rebounding. The Rebels' frontcourt is even more vulnerable to the Aztecs without Green. San Diego State has defeated UNLV 10 consecutive times, including winning both games this season by 13 points each. UNLV is 2-8 ATS the past 10 times when taking between seven and 12 1/2 points. | |||||||
03-06-17 | BYU v. St. Mary's -6.5 | Top | 50-81 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
BYU's lack of depth and inexperience should prove fatal against Saint Mary's especially in such a short turnaround. The Cougars just defeated Loyola Marymount, 89-81, in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Saturday. Saint Mary's has shot better than 50 percent during 18 of its 30 games. The Gaels beat the Cougars, 81-68, at home and 70-57 at Provo this season. Both of those games were convincing double-digit wins for the Gaels, who led the Cougars by 25 points in the latter matchup played on Feb. 18. Saint Mary's has been golden in this spread range covering seven of the last eight times when favored between seven and 12 1/2-points. | |||||||
03-05-17 | Michigan v. Nebraska OVER 138 | 93-57 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
The last time these two teams played the total went over by 43 1/2 points in regulation. Neither team has stepped up their defensive play. | |||||||
03-04-17 | Dayton v. George Washington +4.5 | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
George Washington is playing well winning four in a row. So this line could hold up even if Dayton wasn't caught in a monster letdown spot. | |||||||
03-04-17 | UNLV v. Fresno State -12 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
UNLV is at one of its lowest points ever. The Rebels are in a letdown spot, too, following an upset home win against Utah State that halted a nine-game losing streak. UNLV went 1-7-1 ATS during the losing skid. | |||||||
03-04-17 | LSU +9.5 v. Mississippi State | 76-88 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I see a clear buy sign on LSU taking this boatload of points against a Mississippi State that has fallen down and can't get up. The Bulldogs have dropped seven games in a row. They are 1-4 the past five times as home chalk. They haven't been this high of a favorite since Jan. 25. | |||||||
03-04-17 | Illinois -3.5 v. Rutgers | 59-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
This is the time to look for hot teams with strong motivation. Illinois is one such team. The Illini have won four in a row and five of their last six putting themselves on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Illinois is doing it with defense holding opponents to under 40 percent shooting from the floor during its last seven games. This is an excellent matchup for the Illini to stay hot. Rutgers ranks 321st in scoring at 65.8 points per game. The Scarlet Knights rate among the bottom teams, too, in field goal percentage at 41.2. The Scarlet Knights just want the season to be finished. They have dropped six in a row while ranking last in the Big Ten with a 2-15 mark. Illinois has achieved good recent success in these types of matchups covering six of the last seven times versus sub .500 foes. Rutgers has failed to cover six of the last seven times, too, as a home 'dog of between one and 6 1/2 points. Note, too, Illinois has covered in each of the past four meetings with Rutgers. | |||||||
03-03-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit -1.5 | Top | 85-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
UW-Milwaukee coach LaVall Jordan knew he was going to have it rough in his first season as head coach of the Panthers. He was hired under difficult circumstances and the Panthers had a dreadful season going 8-23 while finishing last in the Horizon League at 4-14. But now can the Panthers turn things around in the conference tournament opening today against Detroit Mercy? No. The Panthers are a dead team losers of nine in a row. They just hosted Detroit Mercy two games ago on Feb. 24 losing 81-74. The Titans aren't exactly as a powerhouse, but they clearly are better than UWM. So I'm surprised at this low of a spread especially with the game being playing at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The Titans finished two games better than the Panthers in conference and have the two best players on the court in Corey Allen and Jaleel Hogan. | |||||||
03-02-17 | Manhattan v. Rider -6 | 68-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride Rider here. Rider has won and covered its past three games winning each game by double digits. This includes a 93-82 victory over the Jaspers on Feb. 22 in this spread range at home. The Broncs are peaking at the right time. | |||||||
03-01-17 | Washington University +24 v. UCLA | 66-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
UCLA can mail this one in and still win easily. But I don't see the Bruins doing it by this large of a spread. The Bruins just avenged a home loss by beating then fourth-ranked Arizona, 77-72, this past Saturday. Despite the huge victory, the Bruins' chances of winning the Pac-12 regular season title are remote trailing both Oregon and Arizona by 1 1/2 games despite beating them both since Feb. 9. Washington has dropped 10 in a row, but the Huskies definitely want to perform better than when the Bruins beat them at home, 107-66, on Feb. 4. Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar called out his team for lack of effort in that game saying they had no fight in them. So I'm looking for a spirited effort by the Huskies coupled with a lackluster one by the Bruins. UCLA has been a money-burner as chalk going 4-12 ATS in that role the past 16 times while Washington is 12-5 ATS as an underdog of 13 points or more. | |||||||
02-28-17 | Fresno State +5 v. Boise State | Top | 74-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Fresno State came on strong at the end of last season and the Bulldogs are doing it again this season winning and covering their last three games. The Bulldogs have been tremendous in an underdog role covering 11 of the last 14 times. By contrast, Boise State has failed to cover in its last six games and also is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games. The line is inflated a bit because it is Senior Night in Boise, but the Broncos don't have any difference makers who are seniors. | |||||||
02-27-17 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Kansas | 63-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Oklahoma is playing its finest ball covering in its last four games, including thumping Kansas State by 30 points this past Saturday. The Sooners are 5-0 ATS, too, as double-digit 'dogs. Kansas, on the other hand, is just 3-8 ATS when favored by 12 or more points. The Jayhawks have only covered one of their last six home games. The line is inflated because it's senior night for Kansas. But that's not necessarily a good thing for the Jayhawks in this high of a spread range because some seniors such as Tyler Self, son of coach Bill Self, are going to see court time when they've hardly played all season. | |||||||
02-26-17 | Georgia Tech +12 v. Notre Dame | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
Before diving into a breakdown of this matchup and why Georgia Tech getting this many points is the right side, let's examine the history. Georgia Tech and Notre Dame have met seven times since the Irish joined the Atlantic Coast Conference. The games have been decided by 4.1 points. The Yellow Jackets have covered seven of the last eight times versus Notre Dame, including winning the first meeting this season, 62-60, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs on Jan. 28. Now, nearly, a month later that spread is almost double as the Irish host the Yellow Jackets. I say the line is much too high. Notre Dame has gotten back on track winning four in a row. The Irish win with offense averaging 84.3 points during their victory streak. However, the Irish haven't played in more than a week last in action on Feb. 18. That's too long to go without playing this late in the season. A certain freshness would be welcomed for tired teams down the stretch, but eight days between games means there's a good chance of rust, which would especially hurt an offensive-minded squad such as the Irish. There's a certain zig-zag this late in college basketball for NCAA Tournament bubble teams such as Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are bidding to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2010. Their chances suffered a big blow when they lost at home to North Carolina State, 71-69, this past Tuesday. Josh Okogie had another big game with 25 points, but the Yellow Jackets hurt themselves by blowing 12 layups and going 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) from the foul line. That tough defeat means the Yellow Jackets must - at the very least - win two of their final three games to have a shot at getting an NCAA berth. Those games are against the 21st-ranked Irish, hosting Pittsburgh on Tuesday and then playing at Syracuse. Georgia Tech has had four full days to brew about that missed opportunity against NC State. So look for the Yellow Jackets to throw their best punch at the Irish. They certainly are capable of beating good teams having defeated North Carolina, Florida State, VCU and Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets are well-coached, have shown fight and their starting lineup has talent especially Okogie, who has scored in double figures in 14 of his 15 conference games. Lack of depth is a problem, which could crop up against Pittsburgh on Tuesday in the short turnaround. Syracuse will be looking for revenge when the Orange play Georgia Tech at home. So this is a game the Yellow Jackets really need. Georgia Tech has covered nine of its last 12 ACC games and is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times versus above .500 opponents. Notre Dame only has beaten one team by more than 12 points since Christmas. | |||||||
02-25-17 | Northwestern v. Indiana -3.5 | 62-63 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
Indiana has the stronger backcourt, is in revenge mode and in stop-the-pain mode. Another factor is I just don't trust Northwestern in a key game especially on the road. | |||||||
02-25-17 | Mercer +8.5 v. Chattanooga | 64-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Mercer has covered eight of its last 12 games but is off a loss. However, the Bears have a great track - 9-1 ATS - following a defeat. | |||||||
02-25-17 | Seton Hall -6.5 v. DePaul | Top | 82-79 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Seton Hall doesn't want to hurt its chances of making the NCAA Tournament by losing this game. The Pirates have won four of their last six games to get into Big Dance conversation. They destroyed the Blue Demons by 31 points when they played last month easily covering as 14-point favorites. DePaul is fat and happy after ending its 10-game losing streak in style with a 67-65 road win against Georgetown. The Blue Demons were 13 1/2-point 'dogs. DePaul is 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. I don't see DePaul pulling a second straight upset. The Blue Demons have lost their last three home games losing by 13 to Villanova, by 35 to Creighton and by 13 to Marquette. The Blue Demons have matchup issues against Seton Hall's big three of Angel Delgado, Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez. All three players have scored 1,000 points this season. In the RIP rankings, Seton Hall ranked 48th as of Thursday with DePaul at 224. In the Pomeroy ratings, the Pirates were at 57 with DePaul at 183. | |||||||
02-24-17 | Yale +5.5 v. Harvard | 64-77 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Yale is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. They are in short revenge against Harvard, a team the Bulldogs lost to 75-67 at home 13 days ago. The Bulldogs were favored by four in that game. Now we have nearly a 10-point line swing. Yale has a strong track record when playing on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record going 21-9-2 ATS. The Bulldogs also have covered in their last four visits to Harvard. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Massachusetts v. George Washington -5 | 67-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
George Washington is an average Atlantic 10 team. But they are the superior team here and can take advantage of the Minutemen's struggling defense that has yielded an average of 81.8 points in the last five games. UMass has lost seven of its last eight games. The Colonials come into the game with a little momentum having defeated Duquesne in their last game, 77-70, on the road. George Washington plays stronger defensive at home surrendering 64.4 points. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Jacksonville State -120 v. Eastern Kentucky | 65-68 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
This is more a fade on Eastern Kentucky than a play on Jacksonville State as the Colonels have lost five in a row. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresno State got hot in mid-February last season ending up capturing the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The buy sign is on the Bulldogs again as they've won and covered their last two games. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Drake +12.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 65-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
Drake is going through growing pains this season. But the Bulldogs did beat Loyola, 102-98, late last month. That was the fifth time they've covered against Loyola in the past six meetings. This has been an underdog series, too, with the 'dog getting the money the past five times. Loyola is 1-5 in its last 6. The Ramblers are off a tough loss to Missouri Valley Conference co-leader Illinois State falling 65-63 this past Sunday. A long shot rimmed out at the buzzer that would have given Loyola the victory. So it' going to be difficult for the Ramblers to get up for this game, let along cover a big number like this in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Manhattan +7 v. Rider | 82-93 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rider may not have its full intensity, which is needed to cover this mid-range number, after upsetting Iona on the road this past Sunday as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. Rider had lost four of its previous five games before pulling the upset. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $826 |
Dan Kaiser | $818 |
William Burns | $787 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Jesse Schule | $620 |
Mike Lundin | $408 |
Ricky Tran | $330 |
Ross Benjamin | $302 |
Joseph D'Amico | $253 |
Big Al McMordie | $173 |