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San Diego State couldn't beat Boise State last season and the Aztecs can't cover this inflated number against the Broncos this season.

Boise State held San Diego State to a puny 48.6 points a game in going 3-0 versus the Aztecs last season. Boise is just as strong this season while I have doubts about the Aztecs following their nine-point loss to Nevada this past Tuesday.

The Broncos and Aztecs are tied for first in the Mountain West Conference. Points should be at a premium in this matchup so I'll gladly take this many.

Boise State is playing extremely well going 8-2 in its last 10 games. Its only two losses during this span occurred on the road to New Mexico in overtime by two points and to Nevada on the road by two points.

The Broncos are proven road warriors going 19-6-1 in their last 26 away matchups for 76 percent. They've proven themselves on the road against top competition, too, going 21-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a home winning percentage greater than .600. San Diego State is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 home games.

Look, Gonzaga just isn't that dominant this season. Yet the oddsmaker continues to inflate the Bulldogs. This game is another example.

Much is made of Gonzaga having its 75-game home winning streak ended on Jan. 19 by Loyola Marymount. Less publicized is the Bulldogs being 5-14-3 ATS during their past 22 home games.

Santa Clara is 16-7 and deserving of being a shorter underdog than this point spread. The Broncos nearly upset Gonzaga in the first meeting on Jan. 7, losing 81-76, covering as an 8-point home 'dog. Santa Clara is 7-1 ATS the past eight times when playing an above .500 team.

Queens is the 21st-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 80.9 points. That's six points more per game than what Lipscomb averages. 

Queens has won two in a row, while scoring at least 81 points in three of its last four games.

Lipscomb has lost and failed to cover its past two games. 

Power rating-wise, I have Queens as the better team. So getting this many points makes this a worthy investment. 

I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

I'm going to ride Lehigh's momentum and revenge in this matchup against Army.

The Mountain Hawks have won eight in a row. They are 8-2 at home. Army has lost three of its last four games.

Lehigh has a much stronger defense than Army. The Mountain Hawks also have played the tougher schedule.

Army hosted Lehigh on Dec. 30 and won 80-78. Army shot better than 54 percent from the floor and 52 percent from 3-point range yet merely won by two points at home.

The Panthers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 road contests. They are 5-2 in road games this season with four of those wins coming versus ACC foes.

Pittsburgh is off a 71-68 home win against ranked Miami this past Saturday. North Carolina hasn't played in more than a week. The rest is good for the Tar Heels, but it could come with some rust. The Tar Heels are 2-5 ATS the past seven times when meeting above .500 opponents.

The Panthers beat North Carolina, 76-74, when the teams met on Dec. 30. Jamarius Burton had a monster game with 31 points.

Kudos to San Diego State on being ranked 22nd in the latest AP Top 25 poll. The Aztecs hold the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. But I don't see them beating Nevada in Reno.

The Wolf Pack are 10-0 at home. They are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

San Diego State defeated Nevada, 74-65, at home three weeks ago. The Aztecs got the Wolf Pack to play their game. That won't be the case in Reno. The Wolf Pack should also shoot much better. They shot under 40 percent from the field in that first meeting missing 20 of 25 3-point shots.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

Slow tempo. Bad offenses. That adds up to an Under in this matchup despite the low total the oddsmaker has set.

Cal State-Fullerton ranks third in the Big West Conference in defensive efficiency. The Titans just held Cal-Irvine to 15 points under its season average in a 62-61 win two days ago. Cal Poly is not Cal-Irvine. The Mustangs average 61.9 points, which is 354th in the country. The Under is 46-21 in their last 67 games, including 6-1 during their past seven home games.

Fullerton has gone Under in 11 of its last 16 games. The Titans are 306th in shooting percentage. Cal Poly is a very strong defensive rebounding team and holds opponents to fewer than 66 points a game.

This is a circle-the-wagons game for Wisconsin, which is 1-5 in its last six games.

The Badgers, though, are home - where they historically play much better - have their leading scorer Tyler Wahl back and are in revenge mode from a 79-69 loss suffered to Illinois three weeks ago.

The Badgers should get a boost, too, with starting guard Max Klesmit expected to play.

Samford could still be suffering the after effects from a tough 91-84 overtime road loss to Furman this past Wednesday night in its biggest game of the season.

Wofford, on the other hand, is off a confidence-building underdog road victory against Tennessee-Chattanooga this past Wednesday that halted a two-game losing streak.

The Terriers have been strong in an underdog role this season covering six of eight.

New Mexico has scored 76 or more points in 10 of its last 11 games. The Lobos are the 14th-highest scoring team in the nation. They should have no problem getting their points against Air Force, which is slipping defensively. 

The Falcons have surrendered at least 70 points in seven of their last eight games. They just gave up 82 points to San Jose State this past Tuesday. That was 14 points above San Jose State's season scoring average. 

Air Force should get its share of points, too. New Mexico is last in the Mountain West Conference in two-point defense. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lobos' last 11 home games. 

I want Kent State going for me at home and off a stunning upset road loss to Northern Illinois this past Tuesday.

The Golden Flashes had won 10 in a row until losing, 86-76, to the Huskies as a 13-point favorite.

That was Kent State's first MAC loss in seven games. The Golden Flashes are 16-4 overall and unbeaten in nine home games.

Buffalo is a mediocre 10-10 with a 2-6 road record. Kent State is 8-1-1 ATS the past 10 times hosting foes with losing road records.

San Diego is 9-12, including 2-5 in the West Coast Conference. But that's still better than Pepperdine, which is 7-14 and 0-7 in the WCC.

The Toreros are a horrendous defensive team. They can score, though. ranking 48th in scoring. They also are 23rd in free throw accuracy. Pepperdine shot 56 percent from the floor against San Diego when the teams met two weeks ago in San Diego. The Toreros still won, 92-89, covering as 2 1/2-point favorites. I see this point spread being too lopsided in favor of Pepperdine.

San Diego should have plenty of energy. The Toreros last played a week ago. They lost at Portland, 88-83, in that game. Pepperdine just played Portland, too, on the road this past Saturday. The Waves lost, 91-76, to Portland. Pepperdine has failed to cover now in seven of its last eight games.

I'm not going to make out that 7-13 SMU is a good team. The Mustangs aren't. But they have been playing solid defense holding their last three opponents to an average of 63 points in regulation.

Memphis is not a good defensive team and the Tigers don't cover point spreads - 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.

The Tigers have failed to cover the last seven times they've played a sub .500 opponent. 

South Carolina has proven to be tough on the road. Just ask Kentucky. The Gamecocks upset the Wildcats, 71-68, at Rupp Arena on Jan. 10. South Carolina hasn't won since losing three in a row - all at home.

So going back on the road may be a good thing for the Gamecocks. They've covered their past four road games.

Florida has been playing well. However, the Gators aren't likely to have starting 6-foot-9 forward Alex Fudge, their second-leading rebounder. That would hurt their size advantage forcing them to employ four guards.

The Gators are off a narrow victory against Mississippi State. They are 5-14 ATS following a victory.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

I want Davidson in circle-the-wagon mode after four straight losses. The Wildcats covered in their last two games losing to George Mason by two points on the road and to Dayton on the road by seven points. The Wildcats last played a week ago. They should be pointing to this matchup. 

I'm not a fan of LaSalle. The Explorers rank 330th in field goal percentage and aren't good on the defensive end either. The Wildcats are the better free throw shooting team, too. 

Nothing like watching the two worst teams in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference to induce a deep sleep.

How can 3-17 South Carolina State be a mid-range favorite? The answer is being at home and playing Delaware State. The Hornets are in the discussion for worst Division I team in college basketball at 1-16. They've lost 15 in a row.

Delaware State is horrible both offensively, averaging 61.6 points, and defensively giving up 75.4 points.

Yes, this is bad on bad. But South Carolina State is in better current form averaging 81.2 points in its last five games. Delaware State is averaging 57 points during its last seven games. The Hornets are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games. Delaware State has failed to cover in its last eight games.

Underrated 11-9 Temple hasn't lost a game by more than 20 points this season. I understand the Owls haven't met a team as good as Houston. But I do see this line as being inflated.

The Owls are playing well with five wins in their last seven games going 6-1 ATS during this time frame. They are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 road contests when matched against a foe with a home winning percentage of more than .600.

Houston hasn't looked sharp in two of its last three home games. The Cougars struggled to beat South Florida, 83-77, as a 23 1/2-point favorite and only beat Central Florida, 71-65, as a 15 1/2-point favorite.

Florida Atlantic is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78 points on the season. The Owls have gone Over 68 percent of the time during their last 32 road games.

UTEP also is a good shooting team. The Miners have broken 80 points in two of their last three games.

The Over has cashed 13 of the past 16 times following a UTEP victory. The Miners scored 81 points in a 20-point victory against Florida International in their last game.

Rutgers is having a strong season breaking into the Top-25. But the Scarlet Knights have never won at Michigan State. I don't see that changing here.

The Spartans are off tough losses against Illinois and third-ranked Purdue, 64-63. This is a circle-the-wagons game for the Spartans and they are home.

Michigan State has played very strong offenses this season yet rank 36th in defensive efficiency. I see the Scarlet Knights have problems scoring.

Vanderbilt is battle-tested, at home and draws the Crimson Tide being possibly distracted by Darius Miles being kicked off the team after he was arrested and charged with murder in a shooting death of a young mother.

Alabama is playing well, but is in a letdown spot after burying LSU, 106-66, this past Saturday.

Vanderbilt has played three straight ranked teams. The Commodores are better than their 9-8 record. Just ask 15th-ranked Arkansas. Vanderbilt defeated the Razorbacks, 97-84, at home this past Saturday.

Alabama has been at its point spread-worst when playing on Tuesday going 1-10 ATS the past 11 times.

It shouldn't surprise that Idaho is last in the Big Sky Conference at 0-5. The Vandals are 6-12 overall.

Montana State is second in the Big Sky at 5-1. The Bobcats are 12-7 overall. They have covered the past six times against opponents with a losing record.

Montana State is playing well, winning and covering each of its last four games. Each of the victories was by double-digits.

By contrast, Idaho has lost six in a row with five of those defeats occurring by double-digits.

Look for this pattern to continue here.

UC Riverside is 5-1 in the Big West Conference and 12-6 overall. Cal Poly is 1-4 in the conference and 7-10 overall. The Highlanders have covered the last nine times against sub .500 opponents.

The Highlanders have held their last four foes to an average of 59 points. Cal Poly is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, averaging 61.3 points. Riverside averages 11 more points per game than Cal Poly.

The Mustangs are averaging only 53.4 points during their past four games.

Princeton had won four in a row until suffering a two-point road loss to Brown this past Saturday. The Tigers have covered six of their last seven road games.

Princeton is much stronger defensively than Penn, giving up eight fewer points per game than the Quakers.

Penn has dropped two of its last three Ivy League games.

I'm going to accept this many points with Ohio State in stop-the-pain mode. The Buckeyes have lost three in a row. However, two of those defeats were in the final seconds in a two-point loss to Purdue and a three-point defeat to Minnesota as big favorites. Ohio State is 11-5 ATS following a loss. The Buckeyes also beat Rutgers earlier this season.

Rutgers is a bit fat and happy after pulling out a 65-62 win against Northwestern this past Wednesday.

This is USC's first home game since Dec. 18. I'm expecting a big performance from the Trjoans, who lost the past two games of their three-game Pac-12 road trip.

USC has won seven of its eight home games. Colorado's only road victory came against weak Stanford. The Buffaloes have suffered road defeats to Grambling, Washington and California. Colorado was double-digit favorites against Gambling and California.

This easily is the Buffaloes' toughest road task. I'm not looking for them to pass it. USC is the better defensive team and a much better free throw shooting team.

SIU-Edwardsville is a terrible 3-point shooting team, but a much improved defensive team. The Cougars rank 82nd in defensive field goal percentage. 

Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row.

Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team.

Seton Hall tends to play to the opposition's level. The Pirates are 1-6 ATS the past seven times facing foes that have a winning percentage below .400. 

Georgetown fits that category. The Hoyas are desperate for a victory having lost seven in a row. 

The Hoyas actually average more points per game than Seton Hall although they play far worse defense.

This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times.

Crunching numbers on this one and find this total to be too high.

If you discount its last game against Tulane, Tulsa would be averaging 63.6 points in its last 10 games. 

Temple is averaging 64.1 points in its last six games taking out its game against Maryland Eastern Shore. 

The Over is 5-1-1 in Tulsa's last seven home games. Temple has been a big Under team on the road with the low side cashing 68 percent of the time during its past 68 away contests. 

This number came up short, according to my power rankings so I'm on host Morgan State, which is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games.

The Bears are playing their best ball of the season winning three in a row.

South Carolina State is 3-14. The Bulldogs have been blown out in their last three games, losing by double-digits each time. They could be the worst defensive team in the nation giving up 86.3 points.

California is beginning to play better going 2-1 in its last three games. The Bears have gotten a boost from transfer guard DeJuan Clayton, who has played in the last two games after missing the first 13 due to a hamstring injury. 

But mainly this is a fade on Stanford. The Cardinal aren't that much better than Cal, certainly not where this point spread is at. 

The Cardinal are 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS. They haven't played a hard schedule either. 

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering 10 of the last 14. That's the way I'm going.

This is too many points for Iona to be laying in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference battle. 

Both teams are solid defensively giving up 66 points per game. 

This has been an underdog series with the team getting points covering the past five times. 

Illinois has been up and down this season owning wins against UCLA and Texas while losing by 15 points at home to Penn State and falling to Missouri, 93-71.

But I see the Illini showing up here against Northwestern, a team they have beaten eight straight times.

I don't trust Northwestern once Big Ten Conference play gets going. The Wildcats didn't look good in a 73-57 home loss to Ohio State this past Sunday.

I just see this as too many points for Missouri State to be laying given the spot and series history.

The underdog has covered 69 percent of the last 27 meetings. Missouri State is in a letdown spot after a 52-49 win against Drake on New Year's Day in perhaps its biggest win of the season.

The Purple Aces have yet to win in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. They should play hard here.

Iowa State's defensive pressure should keep the Cyclones in this one - if not pulling the outright upset.

The Cyclones are playing well with a three-game win streak. They rank ninth in scoring defense giving up just 57.3 points per game, while forcing 20.8 turnovers a game. That's the most among major-conference schools.

Oklahoma has a minus 1.9 turnover margin, which is the worst in the Big 12. Iowa State leads the Big 12 and is second in the country with a plus 7.8 turnover margin.

This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country.

Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup.

Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes.

Other than perhaps Grambling State, the Southwestern Athletic Conference isn't very good at all. So my eyebrows are raised when I see one team favored by so much against another team.

Arkansas Pine Bluff and Alabama A&M are each 4-9. I have them close to even power rating-wise. So I see this as too many points for the Bulldogs to be laying.

Arkansas Pine Bluff is the better defensive team ranking 207th allowing 69.6 points a game. Alabama A&M gives up 76.8 points a game, which ranks the Bulldogs 338th. The Golden Lions are above average in 3-point defense. That's a key because the Bulldogs' strength is 3-point accuracy. 

The Golden Lions are 5-1 ATS the past six times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulldogs are 6-13 ATS the past 19 times when facing a foe with a below 40 percent winning percentage. 

I don't trust Florida to step up in class here. The Gators have lost neutral-court games to West Virginia, Xavier and Oklahoma by nine points in their last game eight days ago.

The Gators' up-tempo style isn't a good fit against Auburn's stubborn defense. The Tigers rank in the top-15 in defensive efficiency, 3-point defense and blocked shots.

The Tigers are 7-0 at home where they've been for the last week after an impressive, 84-61, road win against Washington. 

Notre Dame has failed to cover its last five games. I see the Irish being overvalued again in this matchup.

The Irish rely on their 3-point shooting. They rank 23rd in the nation in 3-point percentage. But Jacksonville can frustrate Notre Dame with its defense. The Dolphins give up the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 58.9 and rank 27th in 3-point defense.

Notre Dame has a far bigger game on deck than this non-conference matchup against an Atlantic Sun Conference opponent taking on No. 14 and ACC leader Miami on Friday.

The Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Dolphins are 11-5 ATS when meeting an above .500 foe.

Kent State checks a lot of boxes for me. I was high on the Golden Flashes and the MAC entering the season and I still feel that way. Kent State ranks 88th in scoring at 77.5 points a game and rates 38th in scoring defense holding opponents to 62 points a game.

The Golden Flashes have an excellent all-around player in Sincere Carry, have major experience on New Mexico State and are the superior free throw shooting team.

I make Kent State nearly a double-digit favorite so I'll lay this small number of points.

Middle Tennessee State giving up a season-high in points while being upset at home, 82-73, by Tennessee-Chattanooga in its last game raises a red flag for me.

This is a short road trip for Murray State. I see the Racers keeping this close if not pulling the outright upset. Murray State is 7-3 ATS the last 10 times facing an above .500 foe.

The Racers average more points per game than Middle Tennessee State and are a far better free throw shooting team than the Blue Raiders, who rank 335th in free throw percentage making only 63.8 percent of their free throws.

St. John's has had only one true road game - and the Red Storm lost that one to Iowa State, 71-60, earlier this month. 

I don't trust the Red Storm away from home especially against Villanova, which is coming on. 

The Wildcats are 4-0 since big man Cam Whitmore, their third-leading scorer, returned four games ago. The Wildcats have knocked off Oklahoma, Boston College, Penn and Saint Joseph's during this span. 

Both Pittsburgh and Syracuse have stepped up their games after slow starts. I just see the Orange's defense and home-court being too much for Pittsburgh to overcome.

The Orange are 5-0 this month with two of the wins coming against Notre Dame and Georgetown.

Syracuse ranks No. 1 in the ACC in defensive field goal percentage and blocked shots. The Orange also are averaging nearly eight steals a game.

I don't see the Panthers being efficient enough with the basketball and hitting enough outside shots to loosen up the Orange inside.

The teams open Summit League play here and I see value backing UMKC at home in a pick'em range. The Kangaroos are the better defensive team.

South Dakota is a terrible shooting team and a terrible defensive field goal percentage team. The Coyotes are in bad form, too, giving up an average of 83 points per game during their last three games. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight lined games and have failed to cover in five of their past six road games.

This should be a wild game with lots of points. Belmont is the 11th-best 3-point shooting team in the nation. Tennessee-Chattanooga ranks 333rd in 3-point defense. The Mocs are terrible in defensive transition. 

The tempo should be fast here, which is the way Belmont likes it. So I'm going to take this many points with the Bruins, who should be live the entire game with their 3-point accuracy. 

This may be the only time that I lay points with Manhattan all season. But it's justified because the Jaspers are hosting Central Connecticut State.

Manhattan is 3-6, but has a winning ATS mark. The Blue Demons have a losing ATS mark and are 1-10 overall.

Giving home-court edge, I would rate Manhattan as double-digits better than Central Connecticut State.

The Jaspers are much better statistically. The Blue Demons rank 342nd offensively and 336th in defensive field goal percentage.

Too many points for Louisiana Lafayette to be laying in this neighborhood rivalry matchup. McNeese should draw plenty of fan support with tickets specially priced at $5. 

The Ragin Cajuns have a far superior 9-1 record. But the 3-7 Cowboys have played a tough schedule and have a winning point spread mark. During their last five games, McNeese State played Iowa State, Northern Iowa, who they upset as 15 1/2-point road 'dogs, Tennessee, Tennessee-Martin and Baylor. 

I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home.

Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points.

The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game.

Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings.

I don't see High Point getting enough respect with this point spread against Queens, which is in its first season of Division I.

High Point averages 86.3 points a game. The Panthers also rank in the top 35 in 3-point defense.

The Panthers held their own against UNLV. They've beaten North Florida, Elon, Tennessee State, Central Michigan and Furman in impressive fashion during their last game, 85-82, as an 11 1/2-point road 'dog.

Queens has played an easier schedule. The Royals' last game, for instance, was against Paine.

Kevin Willard has Maryland off to an 8-0 start in his first year as the Terrapins head coach. But now Maryland has to play at Wisconsin. This should be a defensive dogfight.

Both defenses are strong. Wisconsin held Southern Cal to 59 points, 11 under the Trojans' season average. The Badgers also held Kansas to 63 points in regulation, 14 under the Wildcats' season average. The Terrapins' offensive numbers are padded by having played several weak teams. 

Maryland ranks 14th in 3-point defense. The Badgers have been making 3's at a higher than normal rate for them. 

This total is short considering how bad these two defenses are in what shapes up to be an up-tempo matchup. 

Northern Illinois is stepping way down in defensive class after playing Northwestern, Georgia Tech and Sam Houston. It's a red flag defensively for the Huskies that they surrendered 83 points to Illinois Springfield, a non-division team.

Idaho has gone Over in 10 of its last 13 home games. It's easy to see why given how bad its defense is. The Vandals rank fifth-from-the-bottom in defensive efficiency. They are giving up an average of 81.5 points in their last three games playing Utah Tech, Cal Poly and Pacific.  

VMI isn't a great team by any stretch. But the Keydets average 77.3 points and should not be an underdog to Presbyterian.

Presbyterian, losers of six in a row, could be the worst shooting team in the country. The Blue Hose only average 60.6 points. They are shooting 38.1 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3-point range. They lack size, too, and are terrible from the free throw line at 62.7 percent. 

I think the oddsmaker is way off making the Blue Hose a favorite especially in this mid-size price range. 

T.J. Otzenberger turned Iowa State into one of the best defensive teams in the country last season with the Cyclones giving up 63 points a game and finishing in the top-five in overall adjusted defense, according to KenPom ratings. 

Guess what? The Cyclones are showing definite signs of being even better defensively this season.

Iowa State has held its first three opponents to an average of 45 points a game, best in the nation. 

The combination of Villanova's slow pace, Iowa State's great defense and this game being played in neutral site Portland, Ore., should mean another Under.

The Wildcats are trying to rebuild their offense having lost key playmakers Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels. Villanova is playing at a slow, deliberate pace. The Wildcats don't have to worry too much about Iowa State heating up from 3-point range. The Cyclones rank 339th in 3-point shooting. 

Meeting on a neutral court is another plus for the Under. Iowa State has gone Under in its last five neutral site games. Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last 10 neutral site matchups. 

Michigan barely escaped Ohio at home in its last game, winning in overtime this past Sunday as a 14 1/2-point home favorite. 

Now the Wolverines are laying a big number against Jackson State, who has two very good players and plays in the underrated Southwestern Athletic Conference. I find this number to be too large so I'm on the underdog Tigers. 

Jackson State is 0-3 with losses to Abilene Christian, Tulsa and Little Rock by an average of six points. The Tigers are just two years removed from dominating the SWAC. Now they are rebuilding under first year head coach Mo Williams, a former NBA All-Star. Williams has two excellent players to build around in Ken Evans and Trace Young, who transferred from Wyoming. Jackson State is averaging 75.3 points a game. 

Michigan could have fewer fans than normal for this home contest due to Thanksgiving break. The Wolverines' focus may be off, too. 

Kudos for Louisiana Lafayette getting off to a 4-0 start. The Ragin' Cajuns, though, have played an easy schedule and all of their games have been either home, or on a neutral court.

I don't see the Ragin' Cajuns pulling a road upset against SMU. The Mustangs have won 40 of 46 games at Moody Coliseum during the past four seasons. They are 20-2 (91 percent) in home non-conference games during this stretch.

SMU is getting scoring from Zhuric Phelps and rebounding from Efe Odigie, who leads the AAC in rebounding.

The oddsmaker has yet to effectively price SMU. They've underestimated the Mustangs in this spot while overrating Lafayette.

Central Michigan went 7-23 last season under its first-year coach Tony Barbee. The Chippewas aren't going to be very good this year either. A lone victory against Eastern Illinois is not impressive.

High Point has one of the best scorers in the nation, Jaden House. He's averaging 22.8 points. High Point is the ninth-highest scoring team in the nation. The Panthers have too much firepower for Central Michigan.

I find this line short as Nevada should beat Texas Arlington by double-digits.

The Wolf Pack rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Texas Arlington lost its three best scorers from last year's squad, which lost 18 of 29 games. The Mavericks' scoring numbers are skewed because they played two non-Division I cupcakes.

By most ratings, the Mavericks are worse than any team in the Mountain West Conference. So Nevada should have no problem here.

This is too generous of a point spread so I'm getting involved with the home underdog. 

Both teams are 3-0. This is Utah State's first road game of the season and biggest test.

Steve Lavin has raised the talent level at San Diego bringing in several transfers from the Pac-12. One of the Toreros' victories this season is against Florida Gulf Coast, a team that upset USC by 13 points on the road.

San Diego ranks 31st in the country in 3-point shooting. The Toreros also are 12th in turnover percentage. That's an impressive combination of limiting turnovers while being highly accurate from beyond the arc. 

Troy may have a difficult time getting up for this game after upsetting Florida State on the road this past Monday as a double-digit 'dog.

That victory has caused this line to be inflated. Merrimack is at Troy's level. Merrimack has a good player in Jordan Minor.

Troy was picked to finish 10th in the Sun Belt Conference.

This game is being played at a neutral site. Troy is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games.

Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated.

Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. 

The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. 

The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. 

I have St. Peter's power-rated higher than this spread number. The Peacocks have been an excellent ATS team going 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games for 78 percent. They have covered in their last six home games. 

West Virginia is off a very satisfying, 81-56, victory against Pittsburgh in its Backyard Brawl matchup. I don't see the Mountaineers being as intense as Morehead State for this matchup.

The Eagles have been pointing to this rematch after West Virginia eliminated them, 84-67, in a first round NCAA Tournament game last year. 

Morehead State is off an impressive, 62-55, victory against Bellarmine. 

Denver is going to get some culture shock meeting Sacramento State after facing bad defensive teams Idaho and non-Division I Colorado College. The Hornets play at a snail's pace and specialize in defense under new coach David Patrick.

The Hornets don't have much offense so they use this style. They are averaging 57.5 points in their two games.

I don't think the oddsmaker is fully factoring in Sacramento's slow tempo and commitment to defense while overrating Denver's offense.

Denver has had two easy games so far this season beating Idaho and Colorado College. The Pioneers struggled against Idaho failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. They face stronger competition here against Sacramento State.

The Hornets are defensive-minded under new coach David Patrick. Their half-court ways and height should bother Denver, which has faced two easy defenses.

Sacramento State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games going back to last season. Denver has failed to cover in its last five lined home games.

Missouri didn't cover against Penn in its last game this past Friday, winning 92-85 as a 12 1/2-point home favorite. I had Penn in that game with part of my handicap being the Tigers are breaking in a new roster and coach so it's going to take time for them to jell.

I'm going to double down and fade the Tigers again believing this point spread is too high.

Missouri is 2-0, but giving up 88 points a game. Both of its previous opponents - Penn and Southern Indiana - shot 50 percent from 3-point range. Lindenwood made 12 of 26 3-point shots in its last game.

Now that some teams have played a game, you can start to develop a feel for teams. Maryland opened with a 71-49 home win against Niagara on Monday. Western Carolina also opened its season on Monday covering as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs in a 68-55 loss to Georgia.

Despite their 22-point victory, the Terrapins are not in rhythm yet with a new coach, Kevin Willard, and a roster that is stacked with transfers.

This is what Willard was quoted as saying after Maryland's victory against Niagara: ''It has been a crazy seven months to put together this roster and get these guys playing. We're not close to being good yet. ...''

Western Carolina was encouraged by its showing against Georgia. The Catamounts are excited to be facing another major conference team in Maryland. They want to prove something. The Terrapins won't be taking this early non-conference matchup as serious. Willard's agenda against this overmatched opponent isn't to run up a score, but get a feel for his entire roster and figure out his rotation.

Admittedly this is anything but a marquee matchup. But I don't think it's too much to ask Marist to defeat American at home in the season-opener for both teams.

Marist is a middle-of-the-road MAAC team. The Red Foxes were 14-16 last season. 

But they are still better than American, which went 10-22 last season and finished last in the Patriot League.

Pro prospect Omari Moore is back for San Jose State. That makes the Spartans respectable.

The combination of Moore and the Spartans' size advantage along with home-court should enable San Jose State to cover this number.

Georgia Southern has regressed under third-year coach Brian Burg. The Eagles have won just 13 games during each of the last two seasons. They were 5-11 in the Sun Belt Conference last season.

San Jose State had a dismal conference record, too, last season. But the Spartans play in the stronger Mountain West Conference. They will be better this season.

Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas.

No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed.

Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter.

North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke.

Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise.

Duke often is overvalued. I find that to be the case once again here. 

The Tar Heels knocked off Duke, 94-81, as 11-point road 'dogs on March 5 in Mike Krzyzewski's final home game. So I'm not buying into the Tar Heels being an underdog in New Orleans on a neutral court. If Duke were laying four or more points to North Carolina during the team's past 10 meetings, the Blue Devils would be 2-8 ATS. 

North Carolina has come on strong, winning 16 of its last 19 games. The Tar Heels have defeated many elite foes during this span, not just Duke. Among North Carolina's victories were wins against UCLA, Baylor, Virginia, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Marquette and surprising St. Peter's.

Duke ranks 13th in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.9 percent. Yet Duke has shot far better during its four NCAA Tournament games never dipping below 52 percent from the floor. The Blue Devils are shooting a combined 53.8 percent from the floor during their last four games. I can't see Duke sustaining that sizzling shooting especially given the tough shooting environment in the spacious New Orleans Superdome. 

The Tar Heels have stepped up their defense, too, holding their last two opponents - St. Peter's and UCLA - to a combined average of 57.5 points. 

Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last nine neutral site games. Look for that trend to continue with this game set for the spacious Louisiana Superdome. 

The Wildcats like to play slow. That strategy certainly isn't going to change facing Kansas, a top-30 scoring team, and with the Wildcats minus their second-leading scorer, Justin Moore. He suffered an Achilles tear in the Wildcats' 50-44 victory against Houston in Villanova's last game on March 26. 

Kansas has held seven of its last eight foes to 65 or fewer points. The Under has cashed in seven of the Jayhawks' last 10 games.

The NIT has reached its semifinals. That means the four remaining teams play at Madison Square Garden. That's a huge plus for the Under as college teams unfamiliar with the Garden's large arena and difficult shooting background have trouble scoring. 

So I'm expecting a huge defensive matchup between Washington State and Texas A&M. 

Washington State ranks 64th defensively giving up 65.3 points. The Cougars have held four of their last five opponents to 63 or fewer points. 

Texas A&M holds foes to an average of 66.7 points. The Aggies have given up an average of 60.8 points in their last six games. 

Both teams are below average in field goal percentage. Washington State ranks 321st in field goal shooting. Texas A&M ranks 241st in 3-point accuracy and 268th in free throw percentage.

This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense.

The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though.

Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament.

Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 
I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads.

Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. 

I'm not falling for North Carolina's status as a No. 8 seed. That low seed has turned out to be a joke with the way the Tar Heels have played. The key is can North Carolina sustain its high level? I don't see that.

Now that Jaime Jaquez has been declared fit to play Friday after suffering an ankle injury, I'm going with the Bruins. UCLA has the deep NCAA Tourney experience, roster depth and ability to limit turnovers that can hurt North Carolina. I see the Bruins controlling tempo, which is huge.

The Bruins lost in overtime to Gonzaga in the semifinals of the NCAA Tournament last year. The Bruins' key players from that game are all back.

Jaquez has been playing his best ball down the stretch averaging 21 points during his last seven games.

The Bruins are 7-1 ATS during their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

Arizona has looked less than stellar in beating Wright State and gritty TCU in overtime during its first two NCAA Tournament games. That's putting it kindly. The Wildcats made only five of 27 3-point shots against the Horned Frogs.

But the Wildcats survived. Now, four days after getting past TCU, I see a regrouped Arizona playing much better. Arizona can beat any team in the nation if it plays its ''A'' game. The Wildcats are due for that.

Arizona ranks No. 3 in the nation in points per game at 84.7 and is fifth in field goal percentage. The Wildcats have the second-tallest frontcourt in the country. Houston isn't nearly that explosive, nor has the height and overall wingspan to defeat the Wildcats. The Cougars also have a severe weakness - free throw shooting. They rank 334th in free throw accuracy at 66.3 percent.

Not to take anything away from Houston's impressive 68-53 second-round tournament victory against Illinois, but several things need to be pointed out. The Big Ten Conference did indeed turn out to be vastly overrated. Only Purdue and Michigan made it to the Sweet 16. The Cougars were successful in beating the Illini because they could get away with double and triple-teaming Illinois superstar big man Kofi Cockburn.

That strategy won't work against Arizona because the Wildcats have several excellent big men plus a better perimeter game. Houston hasn't encountered a guard the likes of Arizona's Bennedict Mathurin.

This is the spot where Arizona steps up and proves just how good it is.

I'm surprised this line is where it is. My power ratings have Northern Colorado as the much better team. So I'll be on the Bears in this CBI Tournament quarterback matchup.

Northern Colorado averages 78.7 points a game, which ranks 27th in the country. The Bears are the 11th most accurate 3-point shooting team in the nation. Asheville is strong defensively against the 3-pointer, but its offense can't match the Bears and it gives up a lot of two-pointers. 

Senior guard Daylen Kountz is the best player on the court giving Northern Colorado that edge. 

Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue.

The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard.

Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018.

I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense.

Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game.

It's a big drop from just missing out on going to the NCAA Tournament to participating in the College Basketball Tournament. 

I don't think UNC Wilmington is too excited playing in this tourney after coming within one win of reaching the NCAA Tournament. The Seahawks fell to Delaware, 59-55, in the Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament title game. 

The Keydets rank 19th in the country in scoring at 79.5 points. That's more than eight points per game than what Wilmington averages. 

VMI is strong in the middle with center Jake Stephens and has a dangerous 3-point shooter in Kamdyn Curfman. The Keydets are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games.

Wilmington is ranked 177th in the much-respected Ken Pomeroy's ratings. VMI is rated 159th, according to Pomeroy. 

Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years.

Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game.

Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game.

Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances.

New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor.

Never mind that Providence won the Big East regular season title. The Friars were a popular fade against South Dakota State in their opening NCAA Tournament game on Thursday. Final score: Providence 66, South Dakota State 57. 

Early money has come against the Friars again in this matchup. Richmond is drawing support after the Spiders stunned Iowa, 67-63, as a 9 1/2-point 'dog on Thursday. 
This is the NCAA Tournament, but Richmond can't help but feel fat and happy after that tremendous upset. Teams that have pulled a first-round NCAA Tourney upset as a double-digit 'dog have covered just 24 percent of the time during the past 29 instances. 

Providence is better than it profiles. The Friars are so disrespected that there is now value to them.

Western Illinois averages 79 points a game, which ranks 25th. The Leathernecks, though, give up 77 points a game and are in the bottom-five in 3-point defense. UTEP is a 3-point shooting team and also an excellent free throw shooting squad. Western Illinois has allowed 80 or more points in seven of its last 10 games.

The Miners are not a big scoring team like Western Illinois, but their style should work well against the Leathernecks. UTEP likes to press leading to baskets in transition. This aggressive style should produce both steals and fouls. It helps the Over that the Miners have increased their tempo from the start of the season.

I want defending national champion Baylor going for me and the point spread is reasonable enough to back the Bears. Baylor has won seven straight NCAA Tournament games, covering the spread in its past six. 

This game is being played in Fort Worth, Texas so Baylor has a home state advantage. Both teams have short rotations usually using just seven players. The Bears are off a 85-49 blowout victory against Norfolk State on Thursday and had less traveling than North Carolina. 

The Bears give up nine fewer points per game than North Carolina. They rank 12th in the nation in 3-point defense compared to the Tar Heels placing 256th in that category. 

It's worth noting that streak shooter Matthew Mayer scored a career-high 22 points against Norfolk State hitting 8 of 12 shots from the floor and 4 of 7 3-pointers. 
The Tar Heels have failed to cover the past six times they've been an NCAA Tourney underdog. 

There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means.

Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble.

Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten.

The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that.