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This has been a down year for Utah State. I don't see the Aggies pulling off an upset against Colorado State in this Mountain West Conference Tournament game.

Utah State blew out a bad Air Force team on Wednesday to open tournament play. Prior to that, however, the Aggies had dropped five of their last seven regular season games.

This is in direct contrast to Colorado State, which enters the tournament having won eight of its last nine games. The Rams' last three games were victories against Boise State, which finished one game ahead of Colorado State to capture the regular season title, Utah State by 11 points on the road and Wyoming, the fourth-place team in the conference. 

Earlier this season, the Rams defeated the Aggies by five points. 

The Rams are led by David Roddy, who was named the Mountain West Player of the Year. 

Power rating-wise I have these two Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference teams ranked close to even. If anything, a slight edge to South Carolina State.

So seeing this point spread, I'm compelled to get involved with South Carolina State. The Bulldogs are 15-15, while Morgan State is 12-13.

South Carolina State is 12-5-2 ATS when going against opponents with a losing record.

Norfolk State is the top team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. Delaware State is the worst team.

But I'm going to be on the Hornets because this line is too inflated.

These teams just met in mid-February and Norfolk State won, 69-66.

Delaware State hasn't lost by more than 13 points during its last 12 games. The Hornets have played a number of close games. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times as underdogs.

The Hornets nearly upset Maryland-Eastern Shore in their last game six days ago losing, 63-59, as 10-point 'dogs after trailing by only one point at halftime.

First note the venue: Madison Square Garden. That's been a huge Under arena for college basketball tournament games.

Combine that with Butler and you're going to have a low-scoring matchup. The Bulldogs rank 336th in scoring at 63.1 points per game. They are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country ranking among the bottom-15 in tempo. The Bulldogs don't figure to get second-chance points either. Xavier led the Big East in defensive rebounding.

Butler ranks in the top 100 defensively, though, and Xavier is a bad 3-point shooting team. The Musketeers have failed to score more than 66 points in three of their last five games.

Don't expect much scoring in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament game. Not with Canisius and Fairfield matching up.

Canisius is one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 337th. The Golden Griffins, though, haven't given up more than 67 points in four of their last five games.

Fairfield has surrendered an average of only 59.3 points during its last three games. The Stags, however, managed just 41 points against St. Peter's during their last game. No team plays at a slower pace in the MAAC than Fairfield.

Note, too, this game is at neutral site Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The MAAC has used this site for its postseason tournament since 2020 and the Under has cashed 73 percent of the time during the previous 15 games. It's not a fluke as the shooting background is tough because of the spacious gym and unfamiliar surroundings.

I like the way Tennessee Chattanooga is playing down the stretch. The Mocs have won their last four games. They blew out Wofford in a semifinal matchup of this Southern Conference Tournament. The Mocs are the best team in this conference and I see them getting the job down here.

The teams met twice during the regular season and the Mocs won both times, including defeating Furman by six points on the road on Feb. 12.

Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. 

Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. 

The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. 

UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

It's a flat spot for the Rebels.

Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season.

The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark.

Upset special here. Texas State enters the Sun Belt Conference Tournament as the No. 1 seed. But the Bobcats face danger. They haven't played since Feb. 25.

Louisiana Lafayette is playing its best ball winning four of its last five games. This includes a 67-64 victory against Texas Arlington on Thursday in a first-round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game. The Ragin' Cajuns won't be rusty. They also won't have the pressure on them like the Bobcats will.

The Bobcats aren't a big scoring team. They've produced fewer than 70 points in 10 of their last 12 games.

I have Mercer power-rated high than this so I'm going to back the Bears in this first round matchup of the Southern Conference Tournament 
Mercer is 15-16 while Western Carolina is 11-20. 

This game is at a neutral site. More reason not to like Western Carolina. The Catamounts are 3-13 in away/neutral site games. 

Mercer should face little resistance putting up points. Western Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the nation ranking 337th giving up 77.1 points per game. 

Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus.

St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder.

Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2.

The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record.

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is upon us. The games are played at Enterprise Center, which has a notorious shooting drop. This has made for a fantastic record on Unders - to the tune of 64 percent the past 103 times.

The Missouri Valley is a conference known for defense and underrated coaching. This really comes out, too, during the conference tournament.

Indiana State has been held to 66 or fewer points in two of its last three games. Illinois State has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during nine of its last 10 games.

Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup.

Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12.

The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

The oddsmaker knows how bad Green Bay is. But he might be a little behind the curve recognizing the improvement with Detroit Mercy.

The Titans have won and covered three of their last four games beating Northern Kentucky, Wright State and Cleveland State during this time span. Those are three of the top four teams in the Horizon League.

Green Bay is 5-24. The Phoenix play their worst on the road, too, going 1-12. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. Detroit is 8-1 at home.

Detroit won't be showing any mercy as Green Bay beat the Titans, 70-63, at home in the first meeting. Detroit's star player, Antoine Davis, had a rare terrible shooting game in that loss.

The Titans are 18-7-1 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes.

This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland.

Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss.

Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday.

San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog.

The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense.

Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.

Illinois is the better team. Says who? Respected rankings and statistics. 

The Illini are ranked 15th in the BPI ratings and 16th according to KenPom ratings. Illinois is 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Michigan ranks 27th in the BPI ratings and 30th in the KenPom rankings. The Wolverines are 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Illinois has the best player on the court if not the entire Big Ten Conference in center Kofi Cockburn, who averages 21.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. 
The Illini have defeated Michigan the past four times, including a 68-53 win on Jan. 14. 

Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against opponents with a winning road record. 

Tempo is the key here. Texas A&M Corpus Christi plays at the second-fastest pace in the Southland Conference. Houston Baptist ranks 312th defensively giving up an average of 74.5 points per game. 

The Islanders have gone Over the total in 21 of their last 28 road games. 

The Huskies are pushing pace, too. They've had each of their last six games hit 145 points or more on the combined score. Houston Baptist is averaging 82 points in its last six games. The Huskies have gone Over in seven of their last nine home games. 

Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year.
It didn't show in the first meeting because the Buffaloes missed 15 of their 20 3-point shots in a 21-point loss, but Colorado can hang within single digits of Arizona based on their size and home situation. 

The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. 

Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times.
 
The Buffaloes normally shoot much better from beyond the arch than they did during the first meeting. Arizona is just average defending against the 3-pointer. 

North Texas has won 13 in a row. A fact the oddsmaker is well aware of. So there is line inflation with the Mean Green.

Louisiana Tech has won four of its last five games. The Bulldogs were favored in the first meeting this season between these teams and should have won the game. They blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost, 63-62. So there is strong revenge motivation.

The Bulldogs might have the Conference USA Player of the Year in big man Kenneth Lofton Jr., who averages 16.7 points and 10.7 rebounds. North Texas likes to pound inside. That's a big part of the Mean Green offense. Lofton, a huge wide body at 275 pounds, can make that difficult.

Discounting a 63-60 loss to UTEP, the Bulldogs are averaging 86.5 points in their last four games.

Louisiana Tech has been strong on the road covering 16 of its last 22 away contests.

No team plays at a slower pace than North Texas. So it's not a fluke the Under has cashed in 16 of the Mean Green's last 23 games.

North Texas is patient looking to work inside. Louisiana Tech has a defensive stopper in big man Kenneth Loften Jr.

There were 125 points scored in the first meeting, which was won by North Texas, 63-62. Only once has the number of points exceeded 125 points during North Texas' last 11 games.

Louisiana Tech has scored 82 or more points in four of its last five games. However, the Bulldogs haven't faced a defense near the caliber of North Texas. The Mean Green give up the fewest points in the nation at 55.6. They rank third in defensive rebounding and fifth in 3-point defense.

Xavier is in a slump. Seton Hall has stepped up its game. I see the wrong team being favored here.

The Musketeers may not be fully recovered from their triple overtime loss to Providence this past Wednesday night.

That loss was Xavier's fifth in its last six games. The Musketeers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.

Seton Hall has won five of its past seven games. The Pirates' only two losses during this stretch occurred on the road to Connecticut and Villanova. Seton Hall covered both of those games. The Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last four away games.

San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State.

San Jose State is last in the conference.

So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich.

The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games.

The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th.

San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog.

The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests.

Talk about train wrecks. That's Oregon State. The Beavers have gone from Elite Eight of last season to 3-22 this season. They've lost 12 in a row with 10 of the past 11 defeats occurring by double-digits. They are a team that can't even be trusted to put forth a full effort. They have yet to post a victory in 2022.

Making things worse for the Beavers is a number of their players are hurt.

The Trojans, on the other hand, are healthy and strong on the road covering seven of their last nine away contests.

UC Davis has had several cancellations this season. The Aggies have played just 18 games going 11-7. However, the Aggies are beginning to make a move having won three in a row. 

UC Santa Barbara is a fade on the road. The Gauchos have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. 

I don't see the Aggies having a problem handling the Gauchos at home. Getting points is a nice bonus. 

Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home.

Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games.

After a slow start, Tulane has come on to cover 11 of its last 14 games. The Green Wave draw Houston at home after the Cougars just scored a 76-74 double overtime road win against Wichita State this past Sunday. The Cougars' next game is a home revenge matchup against SMU. So it's not a great spot for the Cougars. 

Tulane, meanwhile, hasn't played in eight days. So the Green Wave should be rested and ready. They average barely two points fewer per game than the 14th-ranked Cougars. 

Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31.

The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game.

Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall.

The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests.

Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game.

The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.

East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory.

Villanova nearly got caught peeking ahead to this game before dispatching Georgetown, 74-66, at home this past Saturday. Look for the Wildcats to be far more focused against UConn.

I consider Villanova to be the superior team. The Wildcats are 21-6 and 14-3 in the Big East. UConn is 19-7 and 10-5 in the Big East.

The teams met at Villanova on Feb. 5 and the Wildcats won, 85-74. I see a similar scenario for Villanova so catching points is an added bonus.

This line came much lower than I expected given the class difference between these two teams. 

Miami is 19-8 and tied for third in the ACC with an 11-5 conference mark. The Hurricanes currently are ranked 65th in the NET rankings. They are firmly in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid. The Hurricanes shouldn't lack for motivation after letting a 10-point second-half lead slip in a 74-71 home loss to Virginia this past Saturday. 
Now Miami takes to the road where it has covered six of its past seven away contests.

Pittsburgh is ranked 169th in the NET rankings. The Panthers average 12 points fewer per game than the Hurricanes. Pittsburgh ranks 341st in scoring at 62.5 points per game. The Panthers are not going to the Big Dance with an 11-17 record and 6-11 ACC mark. 

I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss.

Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games.

This has contributed to an inflated line, though.

Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all.

I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road.

Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions.

The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups.

Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times.

The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point.

Creighton is coming on winning four in a row. Marquette is falling back, winning one of its last three with that victory occurring against weak Georgetown.
The Blue Jays won the first meeting, 75-69, in double overtime on the road. Now they get Marquette at home where they have won five of their last six, including burying Villanova. 

Look for the Blue Jays to continue their momentum with a victory. 

There's a class difference here not reflected in the number. Maine has only two Division I wins. New Jersey Tech has taken care of teams that have easily defeated Maine. The Highlanders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.

Maine also has had some internal problems that came to a boil this past week with its head coach being replaced.

The Black Bears aren't even going to qualify for the league playoffs so motivation could be an issue even with a coaching change.

Can the Wolverines win road games against Iowa and Wisconsin in a span of four days? I say no.

Michigan upset the Hawkeyes this past Thursday, 84-79. Now, though, the Wolverines draw the 15th-ranked Badgers also on the road.

Wisconsin gives up the fewest turnovers in the nation at 8.6. The Badgers' traditionally strong defense is coming on, too, giving up an average of 63.2 points during the last four games.

Michigan has faced five ranked teams this season - and lost four of those five games.

There were a combined 123 points scored in the first meeting between these two teams with Long Beach State winning, 65-58. Don't expect many points to be scored either in this second go-around.

Long Beach State has surrendered fewer than 70 points during its last 11 games. The Beach have held their last seven foes under 67 points. They easily rank No. 1 in the Big West in defensive efficiency. 

Santa Barbara gives up just 64.5 points. The Gauchos haven't permitted more than 67 points during their last seven games. They play at an extremely slow pace, which is great for the Under. 

These are a pair of middle-of-the-road Ohio Valley Conference teams. But Austin Peay is a step above Tennessee Tech.

Tennessee Tech is 3-7 in its last 10 games with two of those victories occurring versus Eastern Illinois, which is in last place in the Ohio Valley and is the third-lowest scoring team in the nation.

Austin Peay can't beat Murray State, Morehead State and Belmont. But the Governors can take out all the other Ohio Valley teams especially at home. That includes Tennessee Tech. Austin Peay defeated the Golden Eagles, 58-55, on the road when the teams met on Jan. 29.

The Governors now get the rematch at home where they have won four of their last five.

Maryland is better than Nebraska. The oddsmaker knows that opening the Terrapins a road favorite. Still, this line is short because the Terrapins have lost five straight. Those defeats, though, came to Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue in their last game this past Sunday. Maryland led Purdue by 12 points with 11 minutes left before losing, 62-61. 

Nebraska is 7-18 with its only victory during the past five games occurring against sagging Minnesota. Maryland has four more victories and four fewer losses than the Cornhuskers. 

The Cornhuskers can't match Maryland's strong backcourt duo of Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell.

I don't see Wright State slowing down Oakland with the Golden Grizzlies playing at home. Wright State ranks 256th in scoring defense and 268th in defensive field goal percentage. Oakland ranks 66th in the nation in points averaging 75.9. 

The Golden Grizzlies average 87,5 points at home. Wright State just surrendered 75 points at home to Northern Kentucky in its last game, that's four points more than Northern Kentucky averages on the season. 

Oakland is 15-3 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite. 

Wright State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. 

Kent State is an upper level Mid-American Conference team. But Ohio leads the MAC and is better than the Golden Flashes. So I'm not buying Kent State opening as the favorite.

The Bobcats are 22-4, including 8-3 on the road. They have a better road mark than Kent State's home record. The Golden Flashes are 16-9, 8-4 at home.

Ohio took care of Kent State, 80-72, back on Jan. 7. Bobcats star Mark Sears had a big game with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor while grabbing six rebounds and dishing off three assists.

Sears averages 20.1 points, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. He's a tremendous shooter. Ohio ranks 15th in the country in turnover margin and first in the MAC at plus 4.23.

Kent State can't match Sears, nor Ohio's ball protection.

Ohio is ranked 87th in the latest NET rankings. Kent State is ranked 140th.

There's a class difference here not fully reflected in this point spread.

UMKC is 16-10. North Dakota is 6-21. Kansas City should be motivated despite the Fighting Hawks' poor record. The Roos had their four-game win streak snapped this past Saturday by Oral Roberts after blowing a 10-point halftime lead. 

The Roos surrender 12 fewer points per game than North Dakota. They also shoot much better from the floor. 

UMKC has covered five of its last six road contests.

I can envision Elon pulling the outright upset here.

The teams met on Jan. 22 in Delaware. The Blue Hens won, 80-77. Delaware shot 52 percent from the floor and had 11 more free throw opportunities than Elon. Yet the Blue Hens still just won by three points at home.

Delaware last played a road game back on Jan. 29.

I don't see another Fresno State loss happening here with the Bulldogs home to the Rebels, who are 3-8 ATS during their past 11 road contests. Fresno State has covered nine of its last 11 home games. 

UNLV has been hot from beyond the arc lately. Don't look for that to continue, though, against a Fresno State defense that ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 57.9 points. 

The Bulldogs shoot better from the floor than the Rebels and also are the superior free throw shooting team. Fresno State beat UNLV, 73-68, at UNLV on Jan. 14. That was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings the Bulldogs have defeated the Rebels. 

Southern Utah has the better record, but I find Northern Colorado to be the superior team.

The Bears defeated the Thunderbirds, 91-81, on the road early last month. After playing just three times from Jan. 8 to Jan. 31, the Bears are back in sync. They are averaging 82.2 points during their last 10 games, shooting 49.9 percent from the field during this span, and have won three in a row.

The Thunderbirds are a high-scoring team, but they rank 280th defensively. So the Bears should continue their high-scoring ways.

Southern Utah has been terrible against the spread failing to cover in 11 of its last 15 games.

I'm not convinced UNC Greensboro is the better team. The Spartans certainly weren't when they met Mercer on Jan. 15. The Bears won, 58-49, as a 3-point home favorite.

The Bears have covered three of their last four games. They are the 16th-best free throw shooting team in the nation.

Greensboro is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times when favored.

Perhaps the Spartans deserve to be a slight favorite being home. But I find this to be too many points.

In no way is this a fade on Gonzaga. Instead it's taking what I perceive to be value on a very strong defensive team in Saint Mary's.

The 22nd-ranked Gaels give up 59.1 points per game. Only 10 teams surrender fewer points per game.

Gonzaga has won 20 games for 25 consecutive seasons. St. Mary's has a very proud tradition, too, having reached that milestone during 14 of the last 15 seasons.

I'm backing Drake in revenge mode and stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row after winning its previous four.

Bradley may lack Drake's intensity following its huge, 68-61, home win against Loyola, who was in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference this past Wednesday.

The Bulldogs are aiming for payback after losing, 83-71, as a 7-point home favorite against Bradley on Jan. 19.

Drake is 6-2 in road games. The Bulldogs outscored their opponents by nearly eight points a game and have a better conference record than Bradley.

Little Rock isn't good. But Troy isn't this many points better than Little Rock.

Troy hasn't won by more than nine points during any of its past nine games.

Troy also has a terrible track record when playing below .500 teams covering only 30 percent of the time during the past 62 instances.

Tennessee State hasn't scored more than 65 pts in six of its last eight games.

Austin Peay is averaging 57 points in regulation during its last seven games discounting its previous game versus Southeast Missouri State, which ranks 338th defensively.

Just 126 points were scored during the first meeting between these two teams.

Both teams play at a very slow tempo.

So all the makings are here for another low-scoring Under game.

Florida has won four in a row and has 6-foot-10 star big man Colin Castleton back in its lineup. Castleton averages 15.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks a game. He can keep the Gators close in this matchup.

The key for Florida is knocking down its perimeter shots to free Castleton inside. The Gators have a better chance of doing that with Castleton returning to the court.

Florida has covered five of the last six times against above .500 opponents. The Wildcats could be looking ahead since their next game is against Tennessee.

After a tough 78-76 overtime road loss to Wyoming, I think Utah State has a bit of a hangover. That loss halted a five-game Aggies' win streak. The Aggies are coming on, but this line is inflated.

Nevada has lost six in a row. But the Wolf Pack are capable of hanging in against good conference opponents as evidenced by a two-point road loss to San Diego State five days ago.

The Wolf Pack rank fifth in the Mountain West Conference in scoring. They are the only Mountain West team with three players in the top 20 in scoring.

Utah State is just 10-8 at home and has a bigger game on deck when it meets San Diego State.

Long Beach State took over first place in the Big West Conference with an upset home win against Cal State-Fullerton two days ago. Obviously a monster win for the Beach.

Now, however, Long Beach State has to travel to Hawaii just 48 hours later to play the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii beat Long Beach, 72-67, as a 2-point road 'dog on Jan. 8.

Hawaii last played five days ago. The Rainbow Warriors are rested and catch Long Beach State in a huge letdown spot with a fatigue factor, too.

These teams met on Jan. 17. Hofstra was an eight-point home favorite and beat Drexel, 71-68. Hofstra is the fourth-best free throw shooting team in the nation at 80 percent. The Pride shot just 10 free throws in that game and also made only 4 of 16 3-pointers.

Hofstra is 14-9 and in third place in the Colonial Athletic Association at 7-4. Drexel is 11-10 and 6-5 in the CAA.

There is a point spread difference of around 10 points in this game compared to the earlier meeting. Hofstra is the better team so I'm attracted to taking this many points.

The Pride just defeated UNC-Wilmington in its last game three days ago. Drexel went against Wilmington on Jan. 31 and lost, 70-63.

The record shows Portland to be 11-12. But the Pilots have been much better against the spread covering 14 of 22 games for 64 percent. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. San Francisco, on the other hand, is 19-5 but terrible against the spread with a 7-15-1 ATS mark for 32 percent.

The teams just met this past Saturday and San Francisco only won, 74-71, as a 15-point road favorite. The Dons also outshot Portland from the floor making 50 percent. The Pilots hit 47 percent of their field goals yet still only lost by three points. Portland actually led at halftime.

Now we have even a larger point spread. San Francisco's home-court isn't worth that much of an edge. The Dons are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

The Pilots have covered six of their last seven away contests.

Both Utah State and Wyoming are playing well. But the Cowboys are the superior team and are at home with a short point spread.

Wyoming is a perfect 10-0 at home. The Cowboys have outscored opponents by an average of 20.3 points at home.

The Cowboys average 84.1 points at home. That's 12 points higher than what Utah State averages on the road.

The Aggies have won five in a row so perhaps that's why the spread is shorter than I anticipated. However, four of those victories were achieved at home. The Aggies also played some weak competition during this time frame posting wins against UNLV, San Jose State and Air Force.

Utah State has a losing road mark.

Wyoming is 10-1 in its last 11 games and 19-3 overall. The Cowboys trail Boise State by one-half game for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. They can't afford a loss here especially following their tremendous, 61-59, road upset win against Fresno State this past Sunday night.

The Cowboys feature two of the best players in the conference, Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

James Madison won nine of its first 11 games, before having to pause for nearly a month starting on Dec. 11 due to COVID. Since resuming play on Jan. 9 the Dukes have yet to regain their earlier form going 4-6.

Drexel also lost three weeks of its season due to a COVID pause. The Dragons are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Dragons are looking to post consecutive victories for just the second time this season after beating Delaware, 76-68, on the road this past Thursday.

James Madison has covered in 11 of its last 15 road contests.

I don't see why Drexel should be favored by this many points? The teams met on Jan. 27. James Madison was a 3 1/2-point home favorite. The Dukes were upset by Drexel, 88-82. The Dragons were red-hot making nearly 56 percent of their shots from the floor. James Madison shot 48 percent.

The Dukes are the better shooting team, though. They rank 30th in the nation in field goal percentage at 47.7 percent. Drexel shoots 46.9 percent from the floor.

These are two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State has the sixth-best defense in the country.

But Wyoming is the more complete team. Fresno State also is coming off two easy matchups.

The Cowboys have won nine of their last 10 games. They are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 road games, including covering the past four. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.

Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points pre game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have one of the best players in the conference, Orlando Robinson. But Wyoming has two of the three best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

Talk about short revenge. Miami of Ohio sure has it here hosting Akron after losing, 66-55, on the road to the Zips this past Friday.

Akron may have gotten some home cooking in that one getting to shoot 10 more free throws than the RedHawks.

But Miami of Ohio was done in by its poor shooting from the floor. The RedHawks made just 36 percent of their shots and were 5-of-17 from 3-point range. Akron, on the other hand, made 50 percent of its field goal attempts.

I'm looking for a strong bounce back effort from the RedHawks at home and for Akron not to shoot as well as it did on Friday. Akron is 2-5 ATS in its last seven road games and 1-5 ATS following a victory.

The Zips also may be without Bryan Trimble, who missed the second half of Friday's game with an injury. The Zips have four players who average between 11 and 13 points. Trimble is one of those players.

This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering the spread the past five times. I see that trend continuing here.

Neither team has been playing well. Louisiana Tech shouldn't be laying this many points on the road. The Bulldogs' average road win this season is by a mere two points.
Florida International has covered six of its nine lined home games.

Florida International plays much better at home. So I'll ride with the Panthers here. 

Northern Illinois scored the most points it has scored in regulation all season when the teams met for the first time this season. Bowling Green still won, 92-83, covering as a 6 1/2-point road favorite. The price is cheap to back the Falcons again this time at home.

Bowling Green averages nearly 20 points more per game than Northern Illinois. The Huskies, 6-13 overall, rank 326th in scoring at 63.4 points a game.

The Huskies, though, are off a 75-56 road upset win against Western Michigan while Bowling Green lost 78-74 as small road chalk to Central Michigan in its last game.

Look for the Falcons, 11-11 on the season, to bounce back against this inferior foe. The Falcons have defeated the Huskies five straight times.

There aren't many easy games in the Big 12 Conference. And this one isn't going to be easy for Texas Tech especially after the Red Raiders won an emotional, 77-64, home game against 23rd-ranked Texas this past Tuesday.

West Virginia is in a desperate situation with six straight losses and possibly missing its best player, point guard Taz Sherman. He's in concussion protocol and questionable for this game.

With or without Sherman, though, I like West Virginia in this spot.

The Mountaineers played well in their last game, an 81-77 road loss to Baylor this past Monday. They shot a season-best 54.2 percent from the field. Look for the Mountaineers to give Texas Tech their best punch. I doubt the Red Raiders can produce another ''A'' game after beating Texas.

Should be a great game: Ohio at Toledo to decide the Mid-American Conference and No. 1 conference tournament seed.

That game, though, is Tuesday. Before that Toledo is being asked to cover what I see as an inflated road number against Ball State.

The Rockets have won nine in a row. But this definitely is a look-ahead spot for them, which could produce a flat effort.

Ball State had won and covered three in a row until getting buried by Ohio in its last game. The Cardinals average a healthy 74 points a game.

The Cardinals have covered eight of their last 11 games. The Rockets have allowed 173 3-point field goals. Ball State has made 180 3-pointers, ranking 69th in 3-point accuracy.

The combination of their 3-point shooting, home-court and catching Toledo in a flat spot should mean a cover for the Cardinals.

I'm not buying Stanford being a home 'dog to Washington State. The teams met on Jan. 13 and Stanford won, 62-57, as a 7-point road 'dog.

Washington State has won three in a row since that loss to Stanford. All of those victories, though, were at home.

The Cardinal played a tough non-conference schedule and they've proved themselves in Pac-12 play sweeping USC.

Stanford is 9-1 at home. Among the teams Stanford has beaten at home are Oregon, USC and California.

Every point figures to matter in this matchup of elite defenses. Texas has the No. 1 defense in the nation holding foes to 54.5 points. Defense is a Chris Beard trademark as Texas Tech well knows about its former coach. The Red Raiders allow the 19th-fewest points in the country. 

So I'm attracted to the road 'dog receiving this many points. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last 11 times. 

I trust Beard's defense and the Longhorns' motion offense to find some open looks from 3-point range. I also trust the Longhorns to control their turnover count facing Texas Tech's full-court pressure. 

It comes down to what should be a low-scoring matchup, as the oddsmaker anticipates, where Texas definitely can stay within two possessions. 

This is a battle for third place in the Southern League. I see a wrong favorite.

Neither team is in good current form. The underdog has cashed the past five times in the series. So taking points is attractive.

Mercer knocked off Wofford in the conference tournament last season during the previous meeting. The Bears are 9-3 at home.

Mercer is 1-3 in its last four games. Wofford, though, is 1-2 in its last three games and 1-3 ATS during its past four games. The Terriers are off a victory against UNC Greensboro. Before that game, however, the Terriers only averaged 55 points in losses to Chattanooga and Furman.

Those are the two best teams in the Southern. The Bears can play slow, similar to those teams, which would frustrate the Terriers.

I don't profess to be an expert on the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. But this line sure looks out of whack to me with Marist opening as a road favorite.

The Red Foxes are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. They've dropped three in a row, including a seven-point home loss to Sienna a couple of weeks ago.

Manhattan has a winning ATS mark in its last eight games. The Jaspers are 5-2 on their home court. They have taken care of business at home in MAAC play, beating Sienna and Canisius.

Both teams are 12-8. But given the home/road splits, the wrong team is favored.

Cal-Baptist is 11-3 at home this season. The Lancers lead the Western Athletic Conference in assists at 17.6 per game.

Stephen F. Austin is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games and 2-5 ATS during its past seven road contests. The Lumberjacks have lost and failed to cover during their last three road games.

The belief here is Tarleton State is the superior team. The Texans have the better record and are off a victory. Rio Grande Valley has just one victory in the Western Athletic Conference. The Vaqueros are 1-7 in their last eight games. The Vaqueros have given up 84 or more points in six of their last eight games.  

Notre Dame is hot, winning nine of its last 10 games. But Virginia is just the team to beat the Irish.

The Cavaliers are a bad matchup for Notre Dame as evidenced by Virginia defeating the Irish 16 of 18 times in the series, including the past six times.

Notre Dame relies on its perimeter shooting especially from long range. The Irish rank 27th in 3-point percentage. Notre Dame is very much a rhythm team.

Virginia disrupts that rhythm. No team plays slower than the Cavaliers. Virginia's defense is at its best clamping down on open shots, especially catch-and-shoot 3-point shots like Notre Dame likes to launch.

On the flip side, Virginia guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman are adept at patiently beating half-court sets. Given four days to prepare, Virginia's elite coach Tony Bennett should have an excellent game plan.

Virginia is 5-3 SU and ATS in its last eight road/neutral site games. Notre Dame is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games versus foes who have an above .500 road mark.

If you're looking for a lot of scoring this certainly isn't the game for you.

Tennessee State hasn't scored more than 65 points in three of its last four games.

Eastern Illinois is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging 55.8 points. The Panthers have failed to break the 58-point barrier during any of their last 11 games. They also play at the slowest tempo of any team in the Ohio Valley Conference.

As low as this total is, it should have opened even lower.

Cleveland State is largely unproven on the road, but I'm not buying the Vikings as a road 'dog to Wright State. The defending Horizon League champions met Wright State last month and won, 85-75, as a 2 1/2-point home favorite.

The Vikings are leading the Horizon at 9-1. Wright State is 8-3 in league, but coming off a 73-63 road loss as a short favorite against Northern Kentucky. Cleveland State rolled past Northern Kentucky, 72-58, at home when the teams met in early December.

Wright State has failed to cover in 13 of its 19 line games this season.

Cal-State Fullerton has gone Over the total in four of its last five games. It's not a fluke. The Titans rank No. 1 in the Big West Conference in offensive efficiency and they play at a fast pace. 

UC Davis is an above average shooting team. The Aggies have reached at least 71 points in five of their last seven games. They have the shooters to take advantage of Fullerton's 3-point defense, which ranks 348th.

Penny Hardaway was one of my favorite NBA players when he played for the Orlando Magic. But as a head college basketball coach, Hardaway has to rank among the bottom 10. He actually could be in the argument as the worst coach.

Yes Hardaway's Memphis team has had injuries. But the Tigers have underachieved so much they may not even make the NCAA Tournament. Memphis 5-12-1 ATS on the season. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Until beating Tulsa in their last game, the Tigers had lost three in a row.

East Carolina is off an embarrassing, 79-36, road loss to Houston this past Saturday. I find this line inflated because of that loss.

Before that defeat to the Cougars, East Carolina had lost in overtime as an underdog to Central Florida and upset Memphis, 72-71, as a 7-point home 'dog. That was less than two weeks ago. Memphis shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while East Carolina made 40 percent of its field goals. Yet the Pirates still pulled it out.

The Pirates may be without third-leading scorer Brandon Suggs, who scored the game-winner against Memphis in the first meeting. The Tigers, though, are far more banged-up. They will be without their leading scorer, Deandre Williams, and likely NBA lottery pick and leading team rebounder Jalen Duren. He is questionable with a hand injury. Also out are Landers Nolley II and Jayden Hardaway. Nolley leads the Tigers in assists.

I'm going to fade Radford. The Highlanders have lost and failed to cover in their last five games. They are averaging just 58.6 points in regulation during their last three games.

High Point averages five more points per game on the season than Radford. The Panthers have won and covered their past three home games. This includes an upset win against Winthrop during their last game.

The spread certainly is low enough to back the better team at home.

Rutgers is very tough at home as evidenced by a 10-1 record. The Scarlet Knights haven't been nearly as good on the road at 1-6. However, that lone victory occurred against Maryland, 70-59, 10 days ago.

Now the Scarlet Knights host Maryland drawing the Terrapins fat and happy after they upset 17th-ranked Illinois four days ago. The Illini, though, were short-handed minus superstar big man Kofi Cockburn.

Maryland is 5-16 ATS the last 21 times following a point spread cover.

Rutgers should be fired up after losing, 68-65, to Minnesota on the road three days ago. The Gophers shot 54.2 percent from the field. Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell ripped his team following that loss as the Gophers were missing three of their top four scorers. So I'm expecting an all-out effort from Rutgers.

Never mind Kansas revenge. The Jayhawks are laying too many points against a tough Texas Tech team after enduring a very hard struggle against in-state rival Kansas State just two days ago.

The Jayhawks came from 17 points down in the second half to nip the Wildcats, 78-75.

Texas Tech is 15-4 and now has a healthy Terrence Shannon, its leading scorer. The Red Raiders are 7-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. Kansas has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been favored.

Xavier is playing well. But Marquette is playing great, is home and has revenge. So I'm going to grab the Golden Eagles as a home 'dog.

Marquette has won five in a row - and they haven't come against cupcakes with three of the victories occurring versus ranked opponents. The Golden Eagles are outscoring their foes by an average of 15 points during this span.

The Golden Eagles have revenge for an 80-71 road loss to Xavier last month.

Louisville has been anything but reliable, but I believe the Cardinals win this game. They got on the right path with a 67-54 home win against Boston College this past Wednesday that ended a three-game losing streak.

Notre Dame is playing well going 7-1 in its last eight games, but the Irish have struggled against Louisville. The Cardinals have defeated the Irish six straight times, including 69-57, last February. Notre Dame has lost during its last four visits to Louisville.

Notre Dame is heavily reliant on its long-range shooting. It's going to be tough for the Irish to get hot on the road dealing with the Cardinals' end line-to-end line pressure and tough home crowd. The Cardinals have the depth to fully pressure Notre Dame the entire game and take advantage of the Irish's inside weaknesses.

Texas Tech is in a sandwich spot having just scored an impressive revenge victory against Iowa State this past Tuesday and with a monster road game at Kansas looming on Monday. 

It would be a mistake for the Red Raiders to overlook West Virginia. 

The Mountaineers fell to fifth-ranked Baylor this past Tuesday, 77-68. The Mountaineers had their chances, though, missing multiple layups. Baylor also hit 12 of 27 3-pointers. 

West Virginia forces the 11th-most turnovers in the country. Texas Tech is vulnerable to that. The Mountaineers also are 4-1 in their last five games against Texas Tech, including winning, 82-71, last February in Lubbock. West Virginia accomplished that without Taz Sherman, who was out with a groin injury. Sherman leads the Mountaineers in scoring at 18.8 points, but is just rounding into shape after dealing with a bout of COVID-19. 

These are two of the top 14 teams in the nation, according to the latest The Associated Press rankings. But we're getting a buy-low spot on Michigan State since the Spartans were upset by Northwestern at home in their last game this past Saturday, while the Badgers just defeated Northwestern, 82-76, three days ago.

Michigan State had won nine in a row prior to losing to the Wildcats. Wisconsin is riding a seven-game win streak.

The Badgers are playing extremely well. But the Spartans should never be underestimated. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers nipped the Spartans, 64-63, at home last season. Michigan State is 7-3-1 ATS versus foes that have a winning percentage above .600.

Both teams give up less than 66 points a game. The Spartans rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage, though, while Wisconsin is 217th.

I see Michigan State winning this game so getting this many points is a nice bonus.

This is a good spot for San Diego to hang close to BYU. The Toreros have won three in a row and are 6-2 in their last eight games. They have hopes to make a run for an NCAA Tournament berth. So they should be giving an all-out effort here.

BYU, on the other hand, is in letdown mode having just faced the three top teams in the West Coast Conference - Gonzaga, St. Mary's and San Francisco.

The Toreros have the necessary 3-point defense to keep BYU from blowing them out. San Diego ranks 21st in 3-point defense.

You can look at this SEC battle two ways:

The first way is that Kentucky is the sixth-highest scoring team in the country after burying Tennessee, 107-79, this past Saturday at home. The Wildcats shot a season-best 67.9 percent from the floor and made 20 of 21 free throws.

Then there's the second way you can approach this game, which is to realize Texas A&M gives up 62.9 points a game, which ranks 40th in the country. Kentucky also ranks in the top 50 in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Wildcats have held 14 of their last 16 foes to 69 or fewer points.

I'm going with the second way especially with this game at Texas A&M. The Aggies have won eight in a row. They held their last two opponents - Mississippi and Missouri - to a combined average of 57.5 points.

I find this total inflated due to the Wildcats putting up 107 points on the Volunteers.

Can we just say it: Georgia Tech isn't very good this season. The Yellow Jackets have a losing record and are 1-5 in the ACC. They just were blown out by North Carolina on the road this past Saturday. 

Utah State has gone Under in four of its last five games. Now the Aggies take on Fresno State, which gives up the fifth-fewest points in the nation at 56.6. The Bulldogs also rank 39th in defensive field goal percentage. The Aggies remain without Brock Miller, their fourth-leading scorer. 

Fresno State, though, ranks 286th in scoring. Utah State is a strong defensive rebounding team and a top-100 team in defensive efficiency. The tempo should be slow here. The Under has cashed in six of Fresno State's last eight home contests.

The Rebels under first-year head coach Kevin Kruger aren't strong enough to lay this mid-range number on the road against a San Jose State that is better than perceived.

The Spartans are much improved at 7-7 than they were last season when they went 5-16, including 2-12 in the Mountain West Conference. The Rebels are a middle-of-the-road Mountain West Conference team hoping to get an NIT berth. 

San Jose State is 8-5 ATS in its lined games. The Spartans have played their best ball at home going 5-2 ATS. 

The Rebels are an unimpressive 5-10 ATS. They have been inconsistent all season and are 0-2 SU and ATS in their two true road games losing to SMU and San Francisco by an average of 20 points. This is UNLV's first away game since Dec. 4. 

It's a limited Sunday slate of college basketball games. But there is one play in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference that merits an investment.

Manhattan is better on both sides of the ball against Canisius. The Golden Griffins could be the worst team in the MAAC. They are 5-10 overall and have lost seven straight road games. The Golden Griffins are 0-7 away from home this season with an average loss of 12.2 points. The closest they've come on the road is seven points. 

The Jaspers are 8-4. They have the better offensive and defensive statistics. I look for them to cover a number that I believe opened too short.