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Stephen Nover NCAA-B Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-18-21	St Francis NY v. Penn State UNDER 144.5		59-74	Win	100	9 h 16 m	Show
St. Francis isn't likely to score many points here, nor get many offensive rebounds. That puts the onus on Penn State, which is a huge favorite, to produce most of the points. But the Nittany Lions aren't a dynamic offensive team. They also are playing at a much slower pace under new coach Micah Shrewsberry. I don't believe the oddsmaker has fully factored that into this number.
11-18-21	Coastal Carolina +2.5 v. NC-Wilmington		53-65	Loss	-110	9 h 52 m	Show
Power ratings-wise I have Coastal Carolina as the better team. So I'll back them as underdogs. Coastal Carolina opened with an easy 101-73 win over Ferrum. That was nine days ago. The Chanticleers are anxious to play again and have had ample rest and game preparation time. UNC Wilmington failed to cover in its two games versus Division I schools losing to Illinois State and to Pittsburgh two days ago. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS in lined games going back to last season. They also are 3-8 ATS as home chalk.
11-17-21	Cal-Riverside +2 v. San Diego		62-74	Loss	-105	12 h 24 m	Show
UC Riverside is underrated and dangerous. Riverside already has an upset road victory against Arizona State. The Highlanders are 6-2-1 ATS as a road 'dog. If you go by KenPom rankings, Riverside is better than San Diego. I have the Highlanders power rated above the Toreros, too. Matchup-wise, the Highlanders' strength is hitting their 3-point shots and defending from beyond the arc. San Diego's weakness is defending the 3-pointer. So I'm going to take the better team in an underdog role.
11-17-21	Tulane v. Florida State OVER 139.5		54-59	Loss	-110	18 h 47 m	Show
Florida State fell out of the Top-25 rankings by losing, 71-55, to Florida this past Sunday. Tulane is off a 73-70 loss to Southern this past Saturday. Each team is capable of playing better - and scoring better. I believe that happens here. The Seminoles are breaking in a bunch of new players. They've had a couple of games to get acquainted. Jaylen Forbes, Tulane's top scorer from a year ago, is averaging fewer than 12 points a game. He's due for a big performance. The Over is 15-7-1 in Florida State's last 23 home games.
11-16-21	Denver v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 145.5	Top	64-78	Win	100	11 h 0 m	Show
Jeff Wulburn is no dummy having coached the previous five years at Stanford. Denver's new head coach, Wulburn knows defense is the way to go. The early returns are good for the Pioneers. They held IUPUI, an Horizon League team, to 47 points in their last game. Now the Pioneers travel to San Antonio to take on USTA, which is averaging only 53 points in its two games versus Division-I opponents. The Roadrunners are in transition minus their long-time backcourt stars Keaton Wallace and Jhivan Jackson, who led the team averaging 20.7 points last season. Wallace was the second-leading scorer at 16.1. No other Roadrunner averaged more than 11 points last season.
11-15-21	San Jose State +20.5 v. Stanford		62-76	Win	100	20 h 24 m	Show
Former Nebraska coach Tim Miles had a successful San Jose State debut as the Spartans opened its season with a 78-76 upset win at home against Cal State Fullerton. The Spartans were six-point underdogs. The Spartans built a 16-point lead and never trailed in that game. The Spartans are better than perceived, while Stanford isn't as good as some people think at least during this early going. The Cardinal lost, 88-72, on the road to Santa Clara this past Friday. Through two games, Stanford ranks 311th in defensive two-point field goal percentage. The Cardinal rank 242nd in turnover ratio, too. Right now Stanford is mainly relying on a pair of freshmen. The Cardinal have failed to cover the past five times when laying points.
11-15-21	Oregon State v. Tulsa +2.5		58-64	Win	100	10 h 14 m	Show
I think the oddsmaker is putting too much emphasis on how Oregon State finished last season. The Beavers shocked a lot of people by winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament and then reaching the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. But it's not so easy to recapture that magic so early in the season. The Beavers lost Ethan Thompson and Zach Reichle from that team. They've begun this season 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS with a 60-50 road loss to Iowa State in their last game. Now Oregon State is laying points at Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are 21-6 the past 27 times as a home 'dog. Tulsa has a number of key transfers, including Jeriah Horne. He played well at Colorado last season and has looked good for Tulsa so far this season. The Golden Hurricane were limited to just 23 games last season and had a disappointing year. They won't lack motivation here and have the talent to win straight-up. Oregon State is trying to find the right combinations so the Beavers are far from peak form. This is what Oregon State coach Wayne Tinkle said, ''Expectations can be a tricky thing for team that overperform in March.''
11-15-21	Bowling Green +16.5 v. Ohio State		58-89	Loss	-110	8 h 59 m	Show
Ohio State is 2-0 but hasn't come close to covering, needing a basket at the end by Zed Key to nip Akron and only beating Niagara by 10 as a 19 1/2-point favorite. The Buckeyes led Niagara by only one point at halftime. The oddsmaker has downgraded Bowling Green because the Falcons were upset by Western Carolina. But Bowling Green is one of the better teams in the MAC. That loss has the Falcons underrated, while Ohio State is overrated because of its big name.
11-14-21	Idaho State v. Seattle University OVER 133		51-77	Loss	-110	17 h 7 m	Show
Two bad teams get together here for a Sunday night game. I'm expecting a loose game with more scoring than the oddsmaker is projecting. Seattle is giving up 76.3 points in its last 13 games going back to last season. The Redhawks, though, have a good guard in Darrion Trammell.
11-14-21	Canisius v. St Bonaventure UNDER 139.5		60-69	Win	100	14 h 26 m	Show
I haven't been this excited about St. Bonaventure basketball since Bob Lanier played for the Bonnies. That was more than 50 years ago. The Bonnies are ranked in the top 25 and the choice of many to capture the Atlantic 10 Conference. They displayed their tough defense in their opening game beating Siena, 75-47, this past Tuesday. Next up for St. Bonaventure is long-time rival Canisius. This should be an intense matchup. The Golden Griffins are 0-2 with losses to Miami and East Carolina. The Under is 11-5-1 the past 17 times Canisius has been an underdog. The teams last met two seasons ago and there were just 118 points scored in Canisius' 61-57 victory.
11-14-21	Florida State +1 v. Florida		55-71	Loss	-116	11 h 38 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened with a wrong favorite. Florida State lost four players to the NBA, but is still loaded. The Seminoles have tremendous depth. Florida needs Keyontae Johnson to beat Florida State. Unfortunately for the Gators, Johnson isn't playing yet. The Gators never recovered against Florida State last year after Johnson unexpectedly collapsed during their game. The Seminoles went on to win, 83-71. It's the seventh straight time Florida State has defeated Florida.
11-13-21	George Washington v. UC San Diego +2		55-75	Win	100	10 h 23 m	Show
San Diego earned some respect upsetting California on the road as a double-digit 'dog this past Tuesday. The Tritons have had ample time to rest and prepare for their opening home game. George Washington, though, is making the long trip West. The Colonials are playing for the third time in five days so there is a fatigue factor. The Colonials hung tough against 21st-ranked Maryland on Thursday, losing 71-64. They weren't so impressive in their opener, though, defeating St. Francis (PA), 75-72, as 6 1/2-point home favorites. That dropped George Washington's point spread mark to 3-13 when favored. The Colonials also have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 road contests.
11-12-21	Villanova +4 v. UCLA		77-86	Loss	-110	13 h 17 m	Show
Two college basketball giants go at it here. I'm not convinced UCLA is the better team. The timing is right for Villanova to play UCLA this early in the season, too. The Bruins are minus injured big man Mac Etienne and could be without Cody Riley. He suffered a knee injury in the Bruins' first game. The Bruins are trying to figure out their rotation at this early juncture of the season. A key for Villanova is the progress of point guard Collin Gillespie, who is coming back from an MCL injury. He looked good in Villanova's season opener, a 91-51 win against Mount St. Mary's.
11-12-21	UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Arizona OVER 137	Top	50-104	Win	100	12 h 45 m	Show
The Wildcats are a high scoring team that is showing signs under new coach Tommy Lloyd of playing even faster than last season. Rio Grande has a new coach, too, Matt Figgers. He's an offensive guru. Rio Grande doesn't play good defense. Rio Grande is going to play at Arizona's pace and try to match the Wildcats' scoring. Fast tempo and two strong offensive teams make this total an overreaction to Arizona going Under in its first game against pathetic Northern Arizona after the total was steamed up. This is an overreaction by the oddsmaker opening this total too low.
11-12-21	Morehead State +13 v. UAB		71-85	Loss	-110	9 h 11 m	Show
Morehead State isn't getting enough respect with this line. The oddsmaker has downgraded the Eagles too much following their 77-54 road loss to Auburn in the season-opener. Auburn, though, is really strong. The Eagles won 23 games last year, captured the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament. The Eagles are very strong defensively. They have a shot-blocking center in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome to go with other veteran and talented players.
11-11-21	CS-Fullerton v. San Jose State +6		76-78	Win	100	8 h 10 m	Show
Tim Miles had good success at Nebraska. He was an excellent hire by San Jose State. I look for the Spartans to be competitive against Cal-State Fullerton at home - if not pull off an outright upset - in Miles' San Jose coaching debut. The Titans gave up 83 or more points in six of their last seven games last season and they surrendered 84 points to Santa Clara in their season-opener, an 84-77 road loss. Fullerton is not a good defensive team. The Titans are not a good road team and have failed to cover seven of the past 10 times when favored.
11-10-21	Long Beach State -7 v. Idaho		95-89	Loss	-110	9 h 24 m	Show
There's a class difference here not reflected enough in the point spread. Long Beach State was 6-12 last season. It was a chaotic year for the Beach. COVID-19 wreaked havoc on their season causing the team to miss nearly a month. Long Beach State also had a number of close losses, which makes their record look worse. Idaho is one of the worst teams in the country. The Vandal were 1-21 last season. They ranked 338th in adjusted offensive efficiency and were just as bad on the defensive end. Long Beach State has a number of returning starters. Idaho doesn't. The Vandal lost their only two double-digit scores from last season.
11-09-21	Northern Arizona v. Arizona OVER 139	Top	52-81	Loss	-118	22 h 41 m	Show
The two teams have opened their respective seasons each of the past two years playing each other. Arizona scored 96 and 91 points in those games. The combined totals were 149 and 143. I don't see why this matchup doesn't fall into that range either especially with Tommy Lloyd taking over from Sean Miller at Arizona. The Wildcats are loaded again and Lloyd wants to play fast. Lloyd is used to high-scoring efforts having been a long-time assistant to Mark Few at Gonzaga. Northern Arizona has no choice, but to push tempo. It has the players to do that. The Lumberjacks won't be afraid to take 3-pointers either.
11-09-21	Abilene Christian v. Utah UNDER 138		56-70	Win	100	19 h 7 m	Show
New coaches, new players. That's the situation with these two teams. Utah's new coach Craig Smith built strong defensive programs at South Dakota and Utah State. He brought in eight new players along with a new coaching staff. The Utes lost four of their top five scorers. He wants to establish a strong defensive mindset right from the beginning. Abilene Christian is tough defensively, too, and plays at a slow pace. The Wildcats held their last six foes to an average of 59.3 points.
11-09-21	Western Illinois v. Nebraska -15.5		75-74	Loss	-110	19 h 0 m	Show
I'm looking for Nebraska to be better than its 7-20 record last season. The Cornhuskers struggled in the rugged Big Ten going 3-16 in league play. But they've added several important players, including former Arizona State guard Alonzo Verge Jr. Nebraska looked good in its preseason games, including beating Colorado, 82-67, at home this past Sunday. Western Illinois last beat a Power 5 conference opponent back during the 2015-16 season. The Leathernecks finished seventh in the nine-team Summit League with a 5-9 conference mark last season. I have Nebraska power-rated to win this game by more than 20 points.
11-09-21	Canisius v. Miami-FL -15		67-77	Loss	-109	19 h 33 m	Show
Miami holds a huge backcourt edge here led by Isaiah Wong, who was named a first-team All-ACC player in the preseason poll. The Hurricanes are deep at guard. They have had problems in the ACC, but are stepping way down in class here. Canisius only was able to play 13 games last season because of the pandemic going 7-6. The Hurricanes have looked good in their preseason games. I have them power rated by more than 20 points in this matchup.
11-09-21	Fairfield v. Providence -14		73-80	Loss	-107	18 h 57 m	Show
I see Providence dominating this matchup against a middling Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference team. The Friars could have the top center in the Big East, Nate Watson. The Friars tuned up for this matchup burying Stonehill, 95-71, in an exhibition game. Playing Fairfield means a little something extra to Providence coach Ed Cooley. He coached the Stags for six years before coming to Providence.
04-05-21	Baylor v. Gonzaga -4		86-70	Loss	-115	31 h 19 m	Show
So Baylor and Gonzaga do get to meet after all after their December matchup had to be cancelled. They were the two best teams back then and they still are the two best teams in college basketball. Here's the difference though: Gonzaga can survive if it doesn't play an "A" game, or doesn't shoot well. Baylor can't. The Bulldogs had their brush with elimination, but they held off UCLA in overtime. The Bruins came in with their "A" game, but it wasn't quite enough against one of the best college teams of all-time. That's what the Bulldogs are. Baylor is very good, too. I just don't put them in Gonzaga's class. Each team has their stars. Gonzaga, however, has more weapons, can score better inside and is superior on the boards and at the free throw line as Baylor makes just 68.6 percent of its free throws.
04-05-21	Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5		86-70	Win	100	31 h 18 m	Show
Yes, I'm on the planet. I know Baylor and Gonzaga have great offenses. That's why the total is set so high. I can find more reasons, though, to go Under rather that count on both teams to hold up their high offensive standards. Baylor's tremendous defense in the NCAA Tourney is getting overlooked. The Bears have held their five opponents to an average of 60 points. Gonzaga has an above average perimeter defense. UCLA hit a blistering 58 percent from the floor against the Bulldogs in scoring 81 points during regulation. That was highly unusual. I don't see it happening again. The Bulldogs held their previous four NCAA Tourney foes to an average of 64.2 points. This is a neutral court matchup with the game being played at spacious Lucas Oil Stadium, a converted football field with a difficult shooting background.
04-03-21	Houston v. Baylor -5	Top	59-78	Win	100	79 h 35 m	Show
Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston. I don't want to denigrate the Cougars. Baylor, however, checks all the boxes for me in this matchup. The Bears possess speed, size and shooting. They average 85.3 points. Houston hasn't broken the 67-point mark in each of its last three games and that's facing inferior competition compared to who Baylor has played. The Bears have won their four NCAA Tourney games by an average of 14.2 points, defeating superior foes than who Houston has beaten. The Cougars have had an easy path not playing a team ranked higher than a No. 10 seed. Their tourney victories were against Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor not only is high-scoring, but its defense has shutdown capabilities. The Bears could have the best backcourt trio in the nation with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who could be the top defensive player in the country. Houston is a tremendous defensive club. No team is more accurate from 3-point range, though, than the Bears, who make 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. So this negates Houston's inside defensive strength.
03-30-21	UCLA v. Michigan OVER 135	Top	51-49	Loss	-108	20 h 55 m	Show
There's enough value for me now to take the Over. I understand Michigan is a strong defensive team and UCLA has stepped up defensively. But in analyzing this matchup there are certain elements that lead me to getting involved with the high side. UCLA is averaging 78.5 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins are getting tremendous backcourt play from Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr., who are averaging a combined 36.8 points per game. The Bruins' field goal and 3-point shooting is slightly down from their regular season numbers. So their point production is impressive even though the scoring numbers were boosted by a pair of overtime games. So is the Bruins' 3-point consistency. They have made 34 3-pointers during their four tournament victories. The Bruins have hit at least 35 percent of their 3-pointers in eight of the past 10 games. The last time UCLA had a below 40 percent shooting game from the floor was early February. So I trust the Bruins to contribute their share of points. Michigan's offense really impressed me in scoring 76 points against Florida State. The Wolverines are moving the ball well - 60 assists on 83 made field goals in their three tournament games - and their execution has been superb. UCLA doesn't force many turnovers and ranks 261st in 3-point defense. Those are red flags. Michigan also makes it free throws being one of the top free throw shooting teams in the nation making 78 percent.
03-29-21	Arkansas +8 v. Baylor	Top	72-81	Loss	-106	19 h 28 m	Show
It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga. The Razorbacks aren't getting a lot of love despite peaking at the right time covering 10 of their last 13 games. Arkansas has the defense, necessary guard play and coaching to if not spring the direct upset, at least hang closer than this point spread indicates. Arkansas has the capacity to effectively mix up its defensive coverages. This is crucial in facing Baylor. The Razorbacks held all three of their NCAA Tourney opponents - Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts - below their season scoring averages. Arkansas is now 10th in defensive efficiency going by the KenPom.com ratings. Moses Moody provides the Razorbacks with an upper level guard. He was instrumental in the Razorbacks ranking seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game, which is right there with Baylor's 85.3. Eric Musselman is one of my favorite college coaches. His past teams have a history of not getting rattled in the NCAA Tourney when falling behind. I trust Musselman and the Razorbacks to keep this a close game.
03-28-21	Oregon +2 v. USC	Top	68-82	Loss	-104	17 h 59 m	Show
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007.
03-28-21	Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158		65-83	Loss	-110	11 h 34 m	Show
It's no secret how Gonzaga is going to play. The Bulldogs are going to push pace - they have the second-shortest average length time of possession - and attack from everywhere on the court. They can do this with such awesome talent in Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi and Jalen Suggs. This is why Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 92.9 points a game. The Bulldogs also are No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage at 55.3 percent. No matter how high the oddsmaker sets the total, Gonzaga seems to go above it. The Over has cashed an amazing 71 percent of the time in Gonzaga's last 55 games. I envision another Over the total in this matchup. Creighton averages 78.4 points a game, which ranks 42nd in the nation. The Bluejays are 29th in field goal percentage and 52nd in 3-point accuracy. Going by KenPom.com's advanced metrics, Creighton ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency. So it's obvious the Bluejays can hold up their scoring end. The key question is what kind of pace will the Bluejays employ? Opponents, of course, have tried to slow down tempo against Gonzaga. That doesn't work. You have to go back to Dec. 2 to find the last time Gonzaga didn't win by double-digits and that was against West Virginia. It's the only instance of the unbeaten Bulldogs not winning by at least 10 points all season. The Bluejays play their best when they push tempo. Creighton ranks 23rd in the adjusted KenPom.com offensive efficiency ratings. My conclusion then is the oddsmaker has set this total too low.
03-27-21	Syracuse v. Houston UNDER 140.5	Top	46-62	Win	100	39 h 1 m	Show
Slow tempo. Great defense. High total. These three key ingredients all are here pointing to Under the total. Houston is an extremely slow-paced, methodical team ranking among the bottom-25 in tempo. Syracuse has slowed down its tempo during the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. The Orange's fabled 2-3 zone is going to cause shooting problems for Houston. The Cougars are not familiar with this defensive style. They are a below average shooting team ranking 194th in field goal percentage. Guard DeJon Jarreau is dealing with a hip pointer. He's Houston's assist leader and No. 3 scorer. The Cougars rank No. 1 in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. They also are No. 2 in scoring defense giving up just 57.6 points and rank fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Sparked by Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse has made 50 percent of its 3-point shots in the NCAA Tournament going 29-for-58. That's unsustainable especially against Houston's elite defense. During the regular season, Syracuse made just 33 percent of its 3-point shots, ranking 213th.
03-27-21	Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas		70-72	Win	100	37 h 60 m	Show
I don't want to hear about a 15th-seed never making the Elite Eight. Nor do I want to hear about metrics, KenPom ratings and ESPN's Basketball Power Index. All I know is Oral Roberts is playing well, averages 81.5 points, is off stunning upsets of Ohio State and Florida and is getting double-digits here. I fully grasp that Arkansas averages 82 points and holds a rebounding edge on the Golden Eagles. I also know, however, that Oral Roberts was outrebounded by a combined 30 rebounds to the Buckeyes and Gators yet still won both of those tournament games. Oral Roberts has proven itself. The Golden Eagles are 19-7-1 ATS (73 percent) versus opponents with a winning record. They have an outstanding guard, Max Abmas, and a very good forward, Kevin Obanor. Oral Roberts ranks eighth in the nation in 3-point accuracy and is No. 2 in the country in free throw percentage at 81.3 percent. Arkansas can't match the Golden Eagles in those key areas. These two teams actually met back on Dec. 20. Oral Roberts led 40-30 at halftime, before Arkansas pulled away for an 87-76 home win. I like Arkansas and its coach, Eric Musselman. I was on the Razorbacks against Colgate and Texas Tech. But I don't find the Razorbacks double-digits better than Oral Roberts right now.
03-25-21	Boise State v. Memphis -4	Top	56-59	Loss	-110	17 h 21 m	Show
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers.
03-23-21	Stetson v. Coastal Carolina -7	Top	72-77	Loss	-117	15 h 0 m	Show
It's not often I write that the Sun Belt Conference holds a major class difference. But that's the case here with Coastal Carolina going against Stetson of the Atlantic Sun Conference in a semifinal matchup of the CBI Tournament. Coastal Carolina is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers are 15-6 while Stetson is 10-13 competing in the Atlantic Sun, one of the weakest conferences in Division I. The Hatters were 3-4 before upsetting disinterested Bowling Green, 53-52, on Monday to reach this semifinal matchup. One win and you're in the semifinals? Hey it's the CBI Tournament. Stetson is 1-4 ATS following a win. The Hatters have a cool nickname, but that's about the only good thing I can say. They are mediocre offensively and well below average on defense. Coastal Carolina ranks 22nd in the country in scoring averaging 80.4 points. The Chanticleers also ranked 10th in defensive field goal percentage. They just beat Bryant, 93-82, on Monday. Bryant averages nearly 20 more points per game than Stetson. The Chanticleers play fast and are strong on the offensive glass ranking 12th nationally in offensive rebounding rate. Stetson ranks 227th in defensive field goal percentage. Coastal Carolina can get sloppy handling the ball, but the Hatters lack the defense to take advantage.
03-22-21	Maryland v. Alabama OVER 138		77-96	Win	100	17 h 8 m	Show
It's human nature to remember and be influenced from what you last saw. It's the same with the oddsmaker, who also must factor in public perception. When it comes to Maryland and Alabama this is what we last witnessed: Maryland beating Connecticut, 63-54, holding the Huskies to a season-low in points and Alabama defeating Iona, 68-55. Those games flew Under the total by a combined 37 points. Judging by where this totals stands now, it's my opinion the oddsmaker and marketplace overreacted because I find this Over/Under too low. Alabama is far from a great defensive team. Maryland's defensive weakness is 3-point defense where it ranks 188th. Alabama may have experienced tournament jitters in its opener against Iona. I'm expecting the Crimson Tide to shoot and play better. Alabama led the nation in 3-pointers taken - and made. The Crimson Tide have seven players capable of hitting long-range shots headed by Jahvon Quinerly, who has the seventh-highest 3-point shooting percentage in the nation. These are not tall teams. Both like to play small ball. Alabama is one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation. Maryland won't mind that style having dealt with many physical, half-court, inside-oriented Big Ten teams.
03-22-21	Colorado v. Florida State -110		53-71	Win	100	16 h 43 m	Show
A highly unusual college basketball season has gotten even stranger during this NCAA Tournament. One reason for this is the presence of five teams from the Pac-12 still being alive. Except for Gonzaga, I don't hold a high opinion of West Coast basketball this season. I'm expecting a correction to occur especially in this matchup of Pac-12 versus ACC. Florida State has the length, size, athleticism and defensive interior to make this a rough matchup for Colorado. The Buffaloes need to hit their perimeter shots because they are going to have problems inside. I'm not convinced they can do that. The Seminoles average six more points per game than Colorado and have a higher 3-point shooting percentage than the Buffaloes. Colorado has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog.
03-22-21	Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton		58-72	Loss	-105	14 h 16 m	Show
One of these teams is being disrespected with this betting line - and it's not Creighton. I understand Ohio University isn't held in high regard being from the Mid-American Conference. But all the Bobcats do is cover spreads. They have covered 76 percent of their past 29 games, including going 5-0 ATS the past five times as an underdog. Ohio deserves respect for not only beating Toledo and Buffalo in the MAC Tournament, but taking out Virginia, 62-58, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. According to the Kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency ratings, the Bobcats rank 30th. They have a balanced scoring attack and showed their defensive abilities holding high-scoring Buffalo 13 points below its season average. Jacob Preston gives Ohio one of the best all-around players in the country. Creighton has endured a difficult season. The Bluejays shouldn't be trusted in this point spread range. They were extremely fortunate to get past lightly regarded Santa Barbara, 63-62, in the first round. I also don't trust Creighton's current form. The Bluejays are averaging a puny 56.6 points per game during their last three games.
03-21-21	Texas Tech v. Arkansas +2		66-68	Win	100	15 h 52 m	Show
There's no grey area with this matchup. Either you believe in Arkansas' fast and flashy way, or Texas Tech's old-school, defensive approach. I'm going the Arkansas way. I like the current form the Razorbacks are in. They have three big scorers and rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game. Arkansas has covered nine of its last 11 games and is 18-9-1 (67 percent) ATS on the season. Texas Tech has failed to cover 14 of the last 19 times it has met opponents with a winning record.
03-21-21	Syracuse v. West Virginia UNDER 147.5		75-72	Win	100	14 h 7 m	Show
I don't believe the oddsmaker has paid enough respect to these two team's defensive abilities with this high of a total. Syracuse has its famed 2-3 zone, while West Virginia has its deadly press. Derek Culver may be a load inside, but I'm not sold on West Virginia's outside shooting, nor Syracuse handling the Mountaineers' constant pressure and maniac intensity. West Virginia certainly is not going to ignore sizzling Buddy Boeheim. The better the competition, the more these defenses seem to step up. The Under is 7-1 the past eight times Syracuse has met an above .500 opponent. That's West Virginia's Under mark, too, the past eight times it has faced a winning opponent.
03-21-21	Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7		71-58	Loss	-110	10 h 52 m	Show
Loyola's always a nice NCAA Tourney story. But the Ramblers aren't nearly in Illinois' class. Yes the point spread reflects that, but not to the full degree. Just how good is Illinois? The Illini very well could be the second-best team in the nation next to Gonzaga. The Illini are playing at this high level going 15-1 SU, 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games. The combination of Kofi Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu are too much for Loyola to keep this within single digits. Illinois has done this against major competition, too. The Illini are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games versus above .500 foes. Loyola hasn't been good when getting points failing to cover eight of the last 11 times in that role.
03-20-21	Abilene Christian v. Texas UNDER 140	Top	53-52	Win	100	19 h 50 m	Show
The oddsmaker must have put too much stock in Texas' 91-86 victory against Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 Conference Tournament because this total is too high. Prior to that game, the Longhorns hadn't surrendered more than 68 points in any of their past five games. Texas gives up 68.2 points on the season and ranks in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage. Only seven teams allowed fewer points per game than Abilene Christian, which permitted only 60.7 while ranking 24th in defensive field goal percentage. Abilene Christian is in strong defensive form, too, giving up only 59.2 points per game during its last four matchups.
03-20-21	Grand Canyon +14.5 v. Iowa		74-86	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
Grand Canyon has been an underdog five times this season. The Antelopes covered every one of those games. Iowa is a great team, but Grand Canyon matches up well to the Hawkeyes and should go 6-0 ATS as an underdog. The Hawkeyes are led by star senior center Luka Garza. Grand Canyon has a pair of big men - 7-footer Asbjorn Midtgaard and 6-10 Alessandro Lever - that can bother Garza on both sides of the floor. The Antelopes ranked 16th in the nation in 2-point shooting at 55.4 percent because of their inside scoring. They also were 35th in the nation in offensive rebounding. Iowa doesn't have the guard play to force many turnovers, which is where Grand Canyon has some vulnerabilities. Making the NCAA Tournament is a huge deal for the Antelopes because they never made it before having just started playing Division I basketball eight years ago. Grand Canyon will be pumped up while all the pressure will be on Iowa. You have to wonder, too, if the Big Ten could be overrated following Ohio State and Purdue losing as big favorites during Friday's first-round tournament action.
03-20-21	Dayton v. Memphis UNDER 138		60-71	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
Memphis has been a monster Under team going below the total 69 percent of the time during its last 63 games. The Tigers ranked 21st in the country in scoring defense holding their foes to 62.9 points a game. Dayton ranks 226th in scoring, averaging fewer than 70 points per game. The Flyers give up 67.2 points, which ranks 91st in scoring defense. There are some other elements that set up this Under. The game is being played at a neutral site - the UNT Coliseum in Denton, Texas. It's also an early start time. Dayton has not played in 15 days. Memphis last played a week ago losing, 76-74, in heart-breaking fashion to Houston in the AAC Tournament Conference. So the Tigers may not have their full intensity since they expected to reach the NCAA Tournament not the NIT, while the Flyers could be dealing with plenty of rust.
03-19-21	Morehead State +13 v. West Virginia		67-84	Loss	-109	19 h 12 m	Show
Look out for Morehead State. The Eagles are a legitimate sleeper on a huge 19-1 roll with their latest victory being an upset of top-seeded Belmont in the Ohio Valley Conference. I like the momentum and confidence the Eagles bring into the tournament. They rank in the top 35 in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Eagles also have one of the top freshmen big men in the country in 6-foot-10 Johni Broome. He destroyed Belmont in the OVC title game with 27 points and 12 rebounds. Broome can hold his own against West Virginia's rugged inside force Derek Culver. West Virginia is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS in its last four games. Maybe the Mountaineers can just turn the switch, but I certainly don't see them winning by double-digits.
03-19-21	Liberty v. Oklahoma State -7		60-69	Win	100	16 h 41 m	Show
Liberty plays extremely slow, but is very efficient offensively. The Flames could frustrate Oklahoma State. But I don't believe that will happen. The Cowboys are hot, played a far more difficult schedule and feature superstar guard Cade Cunningham. That combination should enable them to cover this mid-range number. Oklahoma State emerged as a Big 12 Conference power knocking off No. 2 Baylor in the conference semifinals before falling to Texas, 91-86, in the conference tourney title game. That loss may actually help the Cowboys because they won't be taking Liberty lightly after defeating six ranked teams this month. Oklahoma State has covered seven of the eight times it has met a foe with a winning percentage above .600. The Flames earned their way to the NCAA Tournament by capturing the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament. I regard the Atlantic Sun as a bottom-five conference. One of Liberty's non-league victories came against Lancaster Bible, 90-49. So that padded the Flames' season statistics. When Liberty went up against NCAA Tournament teams Missouri and Purdue earlier in the season they lost by 9 and 13 points.
03-19-21	Oral Roberts +16 v. Ohio State		75-72	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Ohio State does not have a good recent history in the NCAA Tourney. The Buckeyes enter this first round matchup banged-up and off a grueling four-day Big Ten Tournament that didn't conclude until Sunday. The Buckeyes had two overtime games, too, in the Big Ten Tourney. Oral Roberts, on the other hand, has had ample rest and preparation time having won the Summit League Tournament back on March 9. The Golden Eagles average nearly four more points than Ohio State and lead the nation in free throw percentage at 82.4 percent in made 3-pointers. They have one of the best guards in the nation, Max Abmas, to go with inside scoring. So this is going to be a very tough matchup for Ohio State, which may not be 100 percent physically and mentally ready.
03-19-21	Colgate v. Arkansas -8		68-85	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
Colgate and Arkansas are two of the highest-scoring teams in the nation. But that's where the similarity ends. The Razorbacks are 11-2 in their last 13 games with all of their victories during this span occurring versus SEC opponents. Arkansas has won eight games against NCAA Tournament teams, including Alabama, Missouri, Florida, LSU, North Texas, Abilene Christian and Oral Roberts. Arkansas has the best player on the court, too, in Moses Moody. Colgate has only played 15 games this season - all of which were in their Patriot League. Now the Raiders are asked to stay within single digits of maybe the best team in the SEC. I don't see it. Arkansas is 8-2 ATS the last 10 times it has been favored, covering against better teams than Colgate.
03-18-21	SMU v. Boise State	Top	84-85	Win	100	31 h 30 m	Show
Boise State is the No. 2 seed while SMU is the No. 3 seed for the National Invitational Tournament. The higher seed doesn't always mean that team is the better one. But in this case it's justified. SMU averages 67.1 points per game. Boise State trumps that, averaging 76.2 points. The Broncos also give up fewer points per game, surrendering 66.3 compared to SMU's 67.1. Boise State checks another box having senior leadership and a star guard in Derrick Alston Jr. There also is a COVID-19 angle here that works against SMU. This will be just the Mustangs' fourth games since the start of February. SMU last played a regular season game Feb. 8. The Mustangs weren't in action again until this past Friday when they lost 74-71 to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference Tournament. The Mustangs were 5-point favorites in that game. The combination of COVID-19 and bad weather in Dallas caused the Mustangs to miss the final eight games of their regular season. So I don't see them being anywhere near peak form here.
03-14-21	VCU +3 v. St Bonaventure	Top	65-74	Loss	-110	9 h 41 m	Show
These are two great defensive teams. So getting points, no matter how few, really matters. I believe Virginia Commonwealth is slightly better than St. Bonaventure so taking points here in this Atlantic 10 Conference Championship Game is a bonus. VCU and St. Bonaventure last met on Feb. 12. The Rams won the home game, 67-64. despite making just 36 percent of their shots. Their superstar, Nah'Shon Hyland, had a bad shooting game making just 5 of 16 shots from the floor. St. Bonaventure shot 44 percent from the field. Yet VCU still won. That's telling. The Rams pulled down 19 offensive rebounds and forced 18 turnovers. I'm expecting the Rams to play their trademark pressing defense, which is going to force turnovers, and to shoot better from the floor especially Hyland. VCU has better depth than the Bonnies. The Rams haven't permitted an opponent to reach 70 points in regulation during their past 11 games.
03-13-21	Ohio v. Buffalo -2		84-69	Loss	-110	14 h 5 m	Show
Buffalo has won 10 of its past 11 games, including the last seven. One of the Bulls' more impressive victories came against Ohio during the last game of the regular season on Feb. 27. The Bulls buried the Bobcats, 86-66, on the road. Not only do the Bulls rank ninth in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points a game, but they are fifth in defensive 3-point percentage. Ohio is reliant on its perimeter and 3-point shooting. Buffalo is going to get its points. The Bulls have scored at least 74 points in all but two of their games this season. They also have loads of tournament experience having reached the MAC title game five times new since 2015. The Bulls have won four of the past five MAC championship games, including 2019. The Bulls have six players on their roster from that championship victory.
03-13-21	Oklahoma State v. Texas UNDER 145	Top	86-91	Loss	-110	14 h 45 m	Show
The last meeting between Oklahoma State-Texas occurred on Feb. 6. The game went into double overtime - and still went Under - with Oklahoma State winning, 75-67, for a combined 142 points. Oklahoma State has picked a great time to peak and play its best defense. The Cowboys reached this Big 12 Conference Tournament championship game by holding West Virginia to 69 points, eight points below the Mountaineers' season average, and limiting Baylor to 74 points. That was 11 points under the Bears' season average. Texas has been playing outstanding defense. The Longhorns have limited their past six foes to an average of 66 points in regulation. Not one of their last six opponents scored more than 68 points in regulation against them. The Longhorns also get the benefit of extra rest since their semifinal matchup against Kansas was cancelled when the Jayhawks had a COVID-19 problem.
03-13-21	Utah State v. San Diego State -113		57-68	Win	100	10 h 45 m	Show
Revenge can be overrated. But not here. San Diego State has been hoping for this championship matchup of the Mountain West Conference Tournament ever since Utah State swept the Aztecs back in mid-January. Utah State won those games, 57-45 and 64-59. Both were played in snowy Logan, Utah. Now the teams are at neutral site Las Vegas. San Diego State hasn't lost since going 0-2 to Utah State winning 13 in a row. The Aztecs have the fourth-best defense in the country giving up 60.1 points. They also rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. San Diego State's offense has improved and the Aztecs have a deeper bench, which is magnified during conference tournament time as this is each team's third game in three days. The Aztecs caught a break being the earlier Friday game. Utah State had to play in the late Friday game not leaving the gym at the Thomas & Mack Center until after midnight.
03-12-21	Akron v. Buffalo -4	Top	74-81	Win	100	10 h 16 m	Show
Akron doesn't force many turnovers and is a below average defensive rebounding team. I don't trust the Zips on offense either. Buffalo ranks fifth in the nation in 3-point defense. The Zips lack the consistency Buffalo has shown. The Bulls have scored 80 or more points in seven of their last nine games. They are averaging 84.6 points during their past six games. On the season, the Bulls rank ninth in scoring at 82.7 points and are the best offensive rebounding team in the country. They can really exploit Akron's weakness in defensive rebounding. The Bulls are peaking at the right time. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games, riding a six-game win streak. Their lone loss during this span came to Toledo, which is the best team in the MAC.
03-12-21	Missouri v. Arkansas -4		64-70	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
I liked the job Eric Musselman did at Nevada-Reno and I like what he's accomplishing at Arkansas. The Razorbacks are peaking with eight straight victories. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. Arkansas has scored at least 81 points in six of its last seven games. Missouri ranks 227th defensively yielding 72.1 points per game. Missouri is 16-8. The Tigers are fortunate to have that record, though, as they are 6-1 in games decided by five points or less. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they've gone against an above .500 foe.
03-12-21	Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5	Top	66-58	Loss	-103	14 h 20 m	Show
Kudos to Georgetown for upsetting Villanova on Thursday, 72-71, on a pair of free throws by Dante Harris with 4.7 seconds left. But now the Hoyas have to play a third straight day having also upset Marquette two days ago. Georgetown faces a refreshed and rejuvenated Seton Hall squad. The Pirates knocked off St. John's on Thursday. The Pirates' last played six days ago before defeating the Red Storm. That victory and cover against St. John's pushed Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard's point spread record to 10-0 in Big East Tournament games. The Pirates are 18-7-1 (72 percent) in their last 26 neutral site games. This matchup is being played at neutral site Madison Square Garden. Seton Hall is the better team with the stronger bench and best player on the court in Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Hoyas lack depth, which could prove telling given this being their third game in three days.
03-11-21	Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15		51-58	Loss	-110	12 h 18 m	Show
Twice these teams have met this season. The results were similar. Cal-Irvine won 68-49 on Jan. 22 and beat Cal Poly-SLO again, 67-44, on Jan. 23. The margins of those victories were 19 and 23 points, respectively. I'm not anticipating anything closer this time around either. Cal Poly surprised Cal-State Fullerton, 87-82, two days ago in the opening of this Big West Conference Tournament. The Titans were rusty having played just twice following a COVID-19 pause. Still, Cal-Poly scoring that many points was an outlier. The Mustangs are one of the worst teams in the nation. Even with that victory, they are 2-17 in their last 19 games. The Mustangs entered that matchup averaging 59.5 points in their previous five games while ranked 342nd in scoring and 335th in field goal percentage. Cal Irvine isn't going to take Cal Poly lightly now after seeing what the Mustangs did to Cal-State Fullerton. Unlike the Titans, the Anteaters enter tournament play on the upswing winning six of their last seven, including a 15-point road win against Long Beach State in their last game five days ago. The Anteaters rank 29th defensively giving up 63.4 points per game. They are seventh in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Cal-Poly won't be able to handle that strong of a defense just like in the first two games between the teams.
03-11-21	Morgan State v. Florida A&M OVER 138.5		77-75	Win	100	11 h 26 m	Show
Morgan State is all about scoring. Florida A&M had the best defense in the Md-Eastern Athletic Conference. So this matchup makes it hard for the oddsmaker to make a good total. I think he set this total too short. The Bears rank 19th in the country in scoring at 80.7 points per game. They rank No. 2 in the conference in 3-point shooting. The Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. I see the Bears doing their share to get this total to go Over. But will Florida A&M? I believe the Rattlers will. Morgan State ranks 261st in scoring defense. The Bears have permitted an average of 75.1 points in their past eight games. This is a short spread, too, so overtime is a possibility.
03-11-21	Rider v. St. Peter's -5.5		60-75	Win	100	11 h 11 m	Show
Rider is stepping up in class meeting Saint Peter's in this quarterfinal matchup of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament. The Broncos lost 13 of 18 conference games, but reached this game by upsetting Canisius in the first round. Don't expect a second straight conference tournament upset win from Rider. Only 12 teams in the nation give up fewer points per game than Saint Peter's, which allows 62. The Peacocks also rank No. 3 in the country in defensive field goal percentage. Sparked by KC Ndefo, the Peacocks rank first in blocked shots. Ndefo, a tremendous leaper, leads the nation in blocked shots at 3.7 per game. Rider ranks 275th in scoring at 67.4 points. The Broncos are hoping to keep this close because Saint Peter's is a weak offensive team. The Broncos, however, surrender nearly 74 points a game and are well below average defensively. Note, too, that Saint Peter's has covered seven of its last eight neutral site games.
03-11-21	Georgetown v. Villanova UNDER 141		72-71	Loss	-108	7 h 17 m	Show
Did you see how well Georgetown defended against Marquette on Wednesday? Darn impressive. The Hoyas held Marquette to 49 points. Georgetown has been playing stronger defense the past four weeks. If you discount their road game against Connecticut, the Hoyas have surrendered an average of just 63.7 points during their last seven games. Georgetown catches Villanova down leading scorer Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore, the Wildcats' No. 3 scorer. Both are injured. Minus Gillespie and Moore, the Wildcats lost, 54-52, to Providence this past Saturday shooting just 33 percent from the floor. So Villanova really is going to be stressing defense. The Wildcats have held their past five opponents to only 61 points per game. Note, too, the venue being Madison Square Garden, which is known as a great Under court. An early start is another bonus for the Under.
03-10-21	Nebraska v. Penn State -6	Top	66-72	Push	0	17 h 26 m	Show
This is the spot where Nebraska really is going to miss its leading scorer and star player, Teddy Allen, who decided not to finish the season. Penn State scores more points and gives up fewer points than Nebraska. That's why the Nittany Lions are mid-sized favorites in this first round Big Ten Conference matchup being played at neutral site Indianapolis. But there's more than just that. I don't trust any of Nebraska's players to step up in Allen's absence. Penn State, on the other hand, has been getting strong performances down the stretch from Myreon Jones, its leading scorer, and Seth Lundy, who is coming off a 31-point scoring game in a 66-61 victory against Maryland this past Sunday. The Nittany Lions enter this matchup with the confidence of winning three of their last four, including that upset road win against Maryland. Another one of Penn State's victories during this recent four-game span was 86-83 against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers had Allen in that game and he torched Penn State for 41 points on 16-of-24 shooting from the floor. Yet Nebraska couldn't win even with Allen at his best. Now the Cornhuskers don't have him. Penn State also is a far better free throw shooting team than Nebraska. The Nittany Lions rank 98th in free throw percentage at 73 percent. Nebraska, by contrast, ranks 333rd in free throw percentage at 63.5 percent.
03-10-21	Loyola Maryland v. Army OVER 133.5		67-63	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
Army is coming off an 89-point performance against American in its last game. But the strongest part of my handicap to the Over is what Loyola Maryland can do offensively. Loyola Maryland just scored 76 points against Navy, which gives up 66.5 points per game. Loyola Maryland has reached at least 70 points in all but one of its last 14 games. The Greyhounds also have had star guard Cam Spencer back for the last three games after he had been out. Spencer led Loyola Maryland in scoring at 24 points per game and assists last season. He's rounding into shape and gives the Greyhounds their top passer and a fourth double-digit scorer.
03-10-21	Northern Arizona v. Portland State OVER 130.5		77-66	Win	100	12 h 39 m	Show
It's rare to see a total this low on a game involving Northern Arizona. The Lumberjacks have the top scorer in the Big Sky Conference, Cameron Shelton. He averages 20.2 points a game. The Lumberjacks also are one of the worst defenses in the country giving up 75.4 points while ranking 345th in defensive field goal percentage and 339th in 3-point defense. They are giving up an average of 85.7 points during their past four games. Both teams are stepping way down in class for this first-round Big Sky Conference Tournament matchup at neutral site Boise, Idaho. Northern Arizona just played its last four games against the conference's two best teams, Southern Utah and Weber State. The Lumberjacks averaged 71 points in their last two games. Portland State just played two games against Southern Utah, the No. 1 team in the Big Sky. So the Vikings' current low scoring numbers are skewed. This is the first meeting of the season between Northern Arizona and Portland State. I see that as a plus for the Over since the team's lack familiarity with each other. Northern Arizona could have problems, for instance, handling Portland State's full-court defensive pressure. Vikings guard James Scott led the Big Sky in steals. He's also averaging 18 points in his last three games and is a good ball distributor. Note, too, that Portland State ranks 12th in the nation in offensive rebounding. So they should be able to get a number of putbacks against a defense as soft as Northern Arizona's.
03-09-21	Cal Poly v. CS-Fullerton -5.5	Top	87-82	Loss	-110	18 h 3 m	Show
This is a play-in game to the Big West Conference Tournament, which is being held at neutral site Mandalay Bay hotel in Las Vegas. The oddsmaker doesn't put much emphasis on the small Big West Conference. The opening number shows this. Cal Poly SLO is absolutely terrible. The Mustangs have lost 17 of their last 18 games. They rank 342nd in scoring at 60.9 points and are 335th in field goal percentage. The Mustangs' scoring has been even worse lately as they are averaging 59.5 points during their past five games. Cal-State Fullerton averages 76.7 points, nearly 16 more points per game than Cal Poly. The Titans hold a huge talent gap. Tray Maddox Jr. is second in the Big West in scoring at 16.5 points per game. Josh Hall is the No. 2 rebounder in the conference and Vincent Lee leads the Big West in field goal percentage making 58.6 percent of his shots. So why did the oddsmaker set such a short line on the Titans? Cal-State Fullerton had a COVID-19 pause after its Feb. 20 game. The Titans didn't play again until this past Friday and Saturday. They lost both of those games to San Diego, a former Division II school ineligible to participate in the tournament since they are transitioning to the Big West. So those games were basically meaningless. The Titans used those matchups to get the rust off and as a tune-up for the tournament. The Titans know they must step up their game with UC Irvine on deck to face the winner of this matchup. The Titans have the perfect patsy to face in the Mustangs.
03-09-21	Oakland v. Cleveland State OVER 139.5		69-80	Win	100	8 h 33 m	Show
This is a low total for a game involving Oakland. Cleveland State's defense isn't that good. Oakland ranks 341st defensively giving up 82 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies rank 334th in 3-point defense and 331st in defensive field goal percentage. Until holding Northern Kentucky to a surprisingly low 58 points on Monday, the Golden Grizzlies had allowed 80 or more points in seven straight games. Before yesterday's game, Oakland also had scored 78 or more points in 14 of its last 16 games. Cleveland State ranks 154th giving up more than 69 points a game. The Vikings were allowing an average of 71.4 points during their last eight games until holding Wisconsin-Milwaukee to 65 points in a six-point victory. The Vikings started cold in that game, but scored 47 points in the second half. That bodes well for a big scoring effort here. Both teams have had a chance to get used to the Indianapolis neutral site setting, which is where the Horizon League Conference Tournament is taking place.
03-09-21	McNeese State -2.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana		68-71	Loss	-110	14 h 59 m	Show
Still another case here of the lower seed being the better team. McNeese State, the No. 9 seed in this Southland Conference Tournament, ranks 21st in the nation in scoring at 80.8 points. Southeast Louisiana, the No. 8 seed, gives up 78 points. The Cowboys, with Keyshawn Feazell down low, should have too much scoring and rebounding for Southeast Louisiana, which was outrebounded, 43-30, by New Orleans in its previous game.
03-08-21	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State OVER 140.5	Top	65-71	Loss	-110	17 h 53 m	Show
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has played nine Over games in a row. I'm not expecting that streak to end in its Horizon League Conference Tournament semifinal game against Cleveland State at neutral site Indianapolis. Sparked by their explosive backcourt tandem of DeAndre Gholston and Te'Jon Lucas, who are combining to average 46 points this season, the Panthers are averaging 80.5 points in regulation during their last six games. But what makes the Panthers such a strong Over team is their lack of defense. They are surrendering an average of 82.5 points in regulation during their past six games. Cleveland State, the No. 1 seed in the tournament, averaged 69.5 points on the season while giving up 69.4. The Vikings, though, have shown some defensive slippage. They've allowed 71.4 points in regulation during their last seven games. They were fortunate to survive their first-round tournament game against 10th-seeded Purdue Fort Wayne winning, 108-104, in triple overtime. The Over is 7-2-1 in Cleveland State's last 10 games. While the Vikings' defense is showing vulnerability, their offense should fare well against Wisconsin-Milwaukee. The Panthers rank 297th in scoring defense and 332nd in 3-point defense.
03-07-21	UMKC v. North Dakota State OVER 119		65-69	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
I get that these are two slow-paced teams meeting in a neutral site setting at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, S.D. for this first round Summit League Tournament game. But this total is set too low, way too low especially based on current form. UMKC averages 70.3 points a game. The Roos rank eighth in the nation in field goal percentage at 50 percent and 3are 7th in 3-point percentage making 37.3 percent of their shots from beyond the arc. They have five players averaging double-figures in scoring. North Dakota State is surrendering 79.6 points its last three games. The Bison are averaging 77 points during their past five games. The Roos are permitting an average of 75 points in their last three games.
03-07-21	Florida v. Tennessee -4.5		54-65	Win	100	10 h 1 m	Show
I'm going with revenge, home-court and the superior defense in this matchup. All these reasons put me on Tennessee. The Volunteers have had this matchup circled ever since Florida dealt them their worst loss of the season, 75-49, back on Jan. 19. Tennessee is trying to regain the dominance it showed earlier in the season. Florida hasn't been playing that well either, though. The Gators are 3-3 SU and ATS in their last six games. They lost as 4-point home favorites, 72-70, to Missouri this past Wednesday in their last game. Tennessee has the stingiest defense in the SEC. The Volunteers rank among the top-30 defenses nation-wide. They give up seven fewer points per game than Florida.
03-06-21	CS-Fullerton +2.5 v. UC San Diego		78-85	Loss	-109	8 h 13 m	Show
I'm looking for Cal State-Fullerton to get revenge against San Diego after the Tritons nipped the Titans, 89-85, on Friday. The Titans outrebounded San Diego by 17 boards, but the Tritons were on fire with their shooting. San Diego shot 52 percent from the field and connected on 16 of 33 3-pointers for 48 percent. The Titans shot 49 percent from the floor and made 7 of 20 3-pointers for 35 percent. San Diego has won just six games all season and half of those victories were against non-Division I opponents.
03-06-21	Alabama State +13.5 v. Jackson State		54-79	Loss	-110	14 h 2 m	Show
Points are going to be at a premium here with such a low total. This low total is justified, though. Jackson State is a tremendous defensive team. However, the Tigers are extremely limited offensively. They rank among the bottom 20 teams in the nation in scoring at 63.1 points a game and shooting percentage at 37.9 percent. They also are a below average free throw shooting team. The Tigers are averaging only 58.5 points in regulation during their past five games. Alabama State can keep this within single digits. The Hornets are decent on the glass and averaging 68.2 points in their last eight games.
03-06-21	Butler +13 v. Creighton	Top	73-93	Loss	-110	13 h 28 m	Show
If you're going to have a college basketball coaching controversy don't have it happen right before conference tournament time. Unfortunately for Creighton that's what's going on now with its program. The Bluejays suspended their coach, Greg McDermott, two days ago for comparing his program to a plantation. McDermott's job hangs in the balance and the Bluejays' concentration level for this matchup comes into serious question. Creighton has not been playing well losing 72-60 to Villanova this past Wednesday. The Bluejays fell to Xavier, 77-69, in their previous game before Villanova. Butler, on the other hand, is showing signs of peaking. Unlike Creighton, the Bulldogs just defeated Villnova this past Sunday, 73-61. The Bulldogs also upset Seton Hall, 61-52, in their previous game before meeting Villanova. The Bulldogs are shaping up as a dangerous foe heading into next week's Big East Conference Tournament. They have surrendered just 58.6 points in their last three games. The Bluejays and Bulldogs met back on Jan. 16 when Creighton was playing much better. Yet the Bulldogs won, 70-66. Sparked by Chuck Harris, one of the better freshmen guards in the country, it wouldn't shock me if Butler won this game straight-up again.
03-06-21	Texas A&M v. Arkansas OVER 136.5		80-87	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
I understand that Texas A&M is just getting back to playing basketball again after being ravaged by COVID-19 issues. But a total this low on an Arkansas game just begs for the Over to cover. It's the lowest total on a Razorbacks game all season. Only six teams average more points per game than Arkansas, which puts up an average of 83.2. The Razorbacks have produced at least 81 points in five of their last six. They are in peak form, too, winning 10 straight SEC games, including beating South Carolina, 101-73, on the road this past Tuesday in their last game. The key is if the Aggies can contribute their share of points. Texas A&M hadn't played since Jan. 30 before losing, 63-57, to Mississippi State this past Wednesday. Obviously the Aggies had a lot of rust to get off. But they only had five turnovers in that game and now some of that rust has been rinsed away. Arkansas gives up 70.3 points per game. So the Aggies aren't facing a defensive giant.
03-06-21	American v. Army OVER 132.5		66-89	Win	100	10 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker has set too low of a total on this Patriot League Conference Tournament matchup. American is averaging 79.5 points in its last two games. Army has surrendered an average of 76.6 points in its last five games if you discount its last game. Army can shoot ranking 107th in field goal percentage. The Black Knights put up 69 points on Florida earlier this season. American has yielded 68 or more points in eight of its nine games.
03-05-21	Tarleton St v. UT-Rio Grande Valley OVER 132		65-47	Loss	-108	15 h 21 m	Show
Maybe the oddsmaker was thrown off by having to set a total on Tarleton State, which has played a lot of non-Division I schools. But this Over/Under has opened too low. I understand it's tough to get a full read on Tarleton State. But Rio Grande Valley isn't a strong defensive team to justify a total set this low. The Vaqueros have given up an average of 73.3 points in their last three games. Rio Grande Valley has averaged 82.7 points in its last seven games if you discount a 69-51 loss to New Mexico State. The Vaqueros have one of the top all-around guards in Javon Levi.
03-05-21	Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky -7		71-69	Loss	-105	15 h 4 m	Show
Western Kentucky is the class of Conference USA at 10-2 in league and 17-5 overall. Old Dominion is 10-4 in league, but 14-6 overall. The Monarchs have fattened their record by playing four games against Charlotte and Middle Tennessee State during their last six games. Old Dominion is 4-10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. I don't see the Monarchs stepping up to keep things close here. Old Dominion can't hit 3-pointers, nor defend well against 3-pointers. Western Kentucky can exploit those perimeter weaknesses while dominating inside with 6-foot-11 star center Charles Bassley, who averages 17.8 points and 11.8 rebounds. I see a double-digit Hilltoppers victory.
03-05-21	Louisiana-Monroe v. South Alabama -5	Top	72-80	Win	100	15 h 47 m	Show
I have this matchup power-rated considerably higher, so high that it merits my strongest Sun Belt Conference play of the season. South Alabama enters this opening round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game in Pensacola, Fla., going 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. The Jaguars average 11 points more per game than Louisiana-Monroe. The Jaguars have the best player in the matchup by far in guard Michael Flowers, who averages 20.8 points. Russell Harrison is the only player on the Warhawks averaging more than 12 points and he scored less than 13 points a game. South Alabama isn't a deep team, but that shouldn't matter here in this first-round tournament matchup. The Jaguars last played six days ago. Monroe went 5-13 for the worst mark in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. The Warhawks have averaged only 58 points during their last three games. South Alabama has scored at least 70 points in six of its last nine games. The Warhawks commit the most fouls in the Sun Belt and are bad at defending 3-point shots. South Alabama gets to the free throw line and ranks 65th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. So the matchup edges definitely are there for South Alabama.
03-05-21	Boston College v. Miami-FL UNDER 148		76-80	Loss	-107	13 h 34 m	Show
I can understand where the oddsmaker is coming from when he made this total. Boston College beat Miami, 84-62, at home on Jan. 12. So 146 points were scored in that game. The Eagles, though, went crazy in that matchup sinking 18 of 35 shots from beyond the arc for 51.4 percent 3-point shooting. Boston College's season 3-point shooting percentage is 33.7. Since that game, the Eagles are averaging 66.2 points in their last five games if you discount their matchup against Notre Dame two games ago. The Eagles rank 263rd in field goal shooting. Miami is averaging 64.2 points in its last five games. The Hurricanes are a well below average offensive team. They rank 307th out of 340 Division I teams in scoring, 284th in field goal percentage and 329th in 3-point percentage.
03-04-21	Wyoming +16.5 v. Utah State		59-72	Win	100	9 h 4 m	Show
Utah State hasn't been consistent enough to lay this large of a number. The Aggies are 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS in their last eight games. The Cowboys are at their best in this role covering 14 of the past 18 times as a road 'dog. Wyoming has one of the better backcourt tandems in the Mountain West with Marcus Williams and Hunter Maldonado. The Cowboys also have been playing better defense holding their last three foes to an average of 68.6 points.
03-04-21	San Diego v. San Francisco UNDER 143.5		51-67	Win	100	16 h 29 m	Show
A combination of frequent COVID-19 pauses that caused them to miss 14 games plus key players quitting have taken a large toll on the Toreos this season. San Diego enters the West Coast Conference Tournament in Las Vegas 1-4 in its last five games. San Diego ranks 267th in scoring at 67.4 points a game, 263rd in shooting percentage and 268th in 3-point shooting. So the Toreos should do their part to make this Under work. So should San Francisco. The Dons have lost six in a row averaging 66.1 points during this span. San Francisco has made only 21.2 percent of its 3-point shots during this time frame. The teams met back on New Year's Eve in San Francisco and the Dons won, 70-62, for a total of 132 points.
03-04-21	Illinois State v. Northern Iowa UNDER 142	Top	60-65	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
The Missouri Valley Conference always has been a defensive-minded conference populated by good coaches. So I think Under first when looking at Missouri Valley Conference matchups especially during tournament time when the games are held at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This venue is notorious for being tough to score in as a neutral site with the Under cashing better than 65 percent on opening numbers during the last 10 years. The season is finished for the loser of this game. So the intensity level should be at full throttle. Illinois State and Northern Iowa are well acquainted having just played two games against each other to close out its regular seasons. Northern Iowa won 70-56 for a total of 126 points two games ago. The Panthers then beat Illinois State again, 94-87, in overtime. Note, though, the score was 70-70 during regulation. Illinois State hasn't broken 67 points in seven of its last 11 games. Northern Iowa hasn't gone above 70 points in regulation during eight of its last nine games.
03-04-21	Stetson v. Bellarmine UNDER 144		73-70	Win	100	15 h 39 m	Show
Bellarmine heads into the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament having played just once since Feb. 13. The Knights have been held to 64 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Stetson has been involved in some high scoring games. But Bellarmine gives up fewer than 65 points a game and plays at a slow tempo. The teams met twice during the regular season. Bellarmine won both meetings with the combined scores finishing at 129 and 141 points, respectively.
03-04-21	Oklahoma State +12 v. Baylor	Top	70-81	Win	100	7 h 0 m	Show
Oklahoma State is playing extremely well winning five in a row, including three straight versus ranked opponents during this span. The Cowboys shouldn't be nearly this high of a road 'dog against Baylor. The Bears could be in for a letdown after capturing their first conference title in 71 years. The Bears are still rounding into shape following a three-week February shutdown caused by COVID-19. This is just the Bears' fourth game since Feb. 2.
03-03-21	Boston College v. Florida State UNDER 155.5		64-93	Loss	-110	13 h 41 m	Show
I think the oddsmaker was too influenced by Boston College's last game - a 94-90 home win against Notre Dame - when he set this total. The Eagles had averaged just 65.6 points during their previous three games. Florida State is a high-scoring team, but the Seminoles also can play tough defense especially at home where they've held three of their last four opponents to 61 or fewer points. This game figures to be a Florida State blowout. So it gives the Seminoles a chance to reduce the minutes of their starters providing extra time for their backup players.
03-03-21	San Diego State v. UNLV OVER 130.5		71-62	Win	100	8 h 0 m	Show
San Diego State is an excellent defensive team. But what the Aztecs also have going is they are more up-tempo than perceived and are very effective burying 3-point shots in transition. San Diego State leads the Mountain West Conference in 3-point shooting percentage and ranks 25th in the nation hitting 38 percent from beyond the arc. This has been instrumental in the Aztecs scoring at least 75 points in eight of their last 10 games. I see them doing that again here as UNLV ranks 317th in 3-point defense. The key to making this Over work, though, is UNLV contributing its share of points. The Rebels looked good during the second half against Fresno State in their last game this past Friday scoring 36 points. I think that carries over.
03-03-21	Providence v. St. John's -125		67-81	Win	100	11 h 48 m	Show
This is buy-low time on St. John's. The Red Storm lead the Big East in scoring and have a really good player in Julian Champagnie. But two losses in a row have caused the oddsmaker to get real down on the Red Storm. St. John's had their worst shooting game of the season two games ago in an 88-83 home loss to DePaul. The Red Storm then had to play revenge-minded Villanova on the road and were blown out, 81-58. No shame in losing to the Wildcats. I see St. John's bouncing back at home where it has covered six of the past seven times. The Red Storm beat Providence, 92-81, on the road on Feb. 6. That was the most points the Friars have allowed all season.
03-02-21	Wisconsin v. Purdue -1.5	Top	69-73	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. Purdue is 9-3 in its last 12 games, riding a three-game win streak. Wisconsin is 3-6 in its past nine games failing to step up time after time when playing upper tier teams, which 23-ranked Purdue is. The Badgers' only February victories were against lower-tier Big Ten teams Penn State, Nebraska and Northwestern. I don't see the Badgers changing course by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena where the Boilermakers are 9-1 this season. Purdue's only home loss was to Michigan, the No. 2 ranked team in the country. Wisconsin is 5-4 on the road. The Badgers have failed to cover the last four times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Badgers had a great chance to prove themselves versus worthy competition this past Saturday when they hosted No. 5 ranked Illinois. The Illini were missing their star guard, Ayo Dosumu. Yet Wisconsin still lost, 74-69. The Badgers are 0-6 now versus ranked foes in 2021.
03-01-21	Hampton +8.5 v. Radford		52-67	Loss	-105	13 h 0 m	Show
Hampton's season is on the line with this being a quarterfinal game in the Big South Conference Tournament. I think the Pirates will keep this close especially since Radford hasn't been playing well. Radford is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone victory during this time frame coming against Mt. Aloysius, a non-Division I opponent. Radford has averaged only 54.2 points during their past four losses. Hampton has a decent backcourt and the best low-post player on the court, Dajour Dickens. The 7-footer ranks second in the nation in blocked shots averaging 3.48 per game.
02-28-21	Quinnipiac +3 v. Marist		67-76	Loss	-109	13 h 57 m	Show
I believe the wrong team is favored. Marist is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Red Foxes have played only two games this month. They average just 62.7 points a game. That puny average shrinks even more to 52.5 counting just their last four games. Quinnipiac has won and covered three in a row. The Bobcats have one of the stronger defenses in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. They rank sixth nationally in defensive field goal percentage, while averaging nearly eight points more per game than Marist. The underdog has covered five of the last six in this series. That's easy to see why when the oddsmaker makes a wrong favorite like this.
02-28-21	Michigan State +2.5 v. Maryland	Top	55-73	Loss	-105	11 h 20 m	Show
Here comes the Spartans. Perhaps given up for dead, Michigan State has emerged as a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament with three straight impressive victories. The Spartans have knocked off Indiana on the road, upset fifth-ranked Illinois at home and then upset Ohio State this past Thursday. The Spartans accomplished all of this during the past nine days. Maryland is playing well, too, with four consecutive victories. But the caliber of the Terps' opposition during this span isn't nearly as impressive. Maryland won three home games defeating Nebraska twice and Minnesota, which is horrible on the road. The Terps' other victory was against Rutgers in their last game. That was a week ago. I'm going to ride Tom Izzo and a hot Aaron Henry with all their momentum and adrenalin facing a Maryland squad that has faced weak competition lately and could be rusty.
02-27-21	Houston Baptist v. McNeese State OVER 157		58-85	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
Only eight teams in the country produce more points per game than McNeese State, which averages 82.8. The Cowboys are going up against a terrible Houston Baptist defense that ranks 340th allowing 81.5 points. Houston Baptist turns the ball over nearly 18 times per game. So the Cowboys should get a number of easy baskets while also being able to dominate inside with KeyShawn Feazell. This also is the Cowboys' first home game since Jan. 20. So they certainly should be pumped - which means offense not defense. The Over has cashed in 11 of McNeese State's last 14 home contests. Houston Baptist should help out, too, with the Over. The Huskies have scored 80 points in two of their past three games. McNeese State is well below average defensively ranking 242nd giving up nearly 73 points per game.
02-27-21	Baylor v. Kansas +5	Top	58-71	Win	100	12 h 53 m	Show
Baylor was sailing along until getting hit by COVID-19, which caused a three-week stoppage for the Bears. Baylor finally returned to action against Iowa State this past Tuesday. The Bears had not previously played since Jan. 30. It showed. The Bears were lucky to have drawn Iowa State, the last-place team in the Big 12 Conference with an 0-14 league mark and 2-17 overall record. Baylor's shooting was off while its defense allowed Iowa State to hit 10 of 21 3-point shots. Baylor barely beat the Cyclones as 24-point home favorites winning, 77-72. No way can Baylor get away with that against Kansas. The Jayhawks are coming on as expected. They are 5-1 SU, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. During this six-game span, they have held their opponents to an average of 58 points in regulation. Kansas has tremendous motivation that goes beyond just revenge for a 77-69 road loss to the Bears back on Jan. 18. The Jayhawks made this matchup their Senior Night. This isn't just any ordinary Senior Night. The Jayhawks take tremendous pride in winning having never lost a Senior Night game since they started the tradition in 1984. Baylor doesn't have this urgency. The Bears only need to win one of their last four games to clinch the Big 12 regular-season championship. If they lose this game, they still have West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech left to achieve the feat.
02-27-21	Tennessee State v. Eastern Kentucky OVER 150.5	Top	84-89	Win	100	15 h 24 m	Show
Extremely fast-paced. Tremendous scoring. Bad defense. All of that fits Eastern Kentucky and those factors are why the Colonels have gone Over in 13 of their last 16 games. I see another Over in this matchup as Tennessee State has gone Over in its last six games. Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky played each other two weeks ago and the total flew Over with the Colonels winning, 93-73, for a combined 166 points. The Tigers shot just 39 percent from the floor in that game, too. The Tigers have scored 73 or more points in three of their last four games. Eastern Kentucky surrenders 73.8 points per game, which ranks 265th. So Tennessee State should be good for at least 73 points this time around, too. Eastern Kentucky is the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels have scored 81 or more points in five of their past six games. Tennessee State ranks 256th defensively.
02-27-21	Abilene Christian v. Central Arkansas +17.5		82-84	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Central Arkansas is in revenge mode after a 93-58 road loss to Abilene Christian on Jan. 23. Central Arkansas was banged-up earlier, but now is healthier. The Bears are 4-1 ATS when catching 11 or more points this season. They have scored 68 or more points in three of their past five games. Abilene Christian has surrendered 69 or more points in two of its last four games. The Wildcats have failed to cover five of their last six away contests.
02-27-21	SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +3.5		69-63	Loss	-118	11 h 56 m	Show
The spot and dynamics are right for SIU Edwardsville to pull off this Ohio Valley Conference upset. The Cougars were nipped by Southeast Missouri State, 64-62, as 3-point road 'dogs on Jan. 28. The Redhawks may have had some home cooking in that one as they shot 32 free throws compared to 17 for the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville has held its last two foes, Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin, to 56 and 53 points, respectively. The Cougars have covered seven of the last eight times when meeting a below .500 opponent. Southeast Missouri State may be dealing with a letdown spot after upsetting Eastern Illinois on the road two days ago. The Redhawks are 6-17-1 ATS the last 24 times following a victory.
02-27-21	Texas Southern v. Alabama State +10.5		86-76	Win	100	13 h 56 m	Show
The oddsmaker isn't paying enough attention to the current form of these two teams. I guess you can't blame him with this being a Southwest Athletic Conference matchup. Alabama State has improved its defense holding four of its past five foes to fewer than 69 points a game. Alabama State has a top-50 defense against 3-pointers. Texas Southern is just an average scoring team and a terrible 3-point shooting team. If you toss out the Tigers' victory against Mississippi Valley State - one of the worst teams in Division I - they are giving up 72.5 points in their last four games.
02-27-21	Central Michigan +11.5 v. Ball State		91-97	Win	100	10 h 7 m	Show
Central Michigan hung in against Buffalo on the road in its last game losing, 85-73, easily covering as 21 1/2-point 'dogs. Buffalo only outscored Central Michigan by four points in the second half. Ball State hasn't been a favorite in more than a month. This isn't surprising considering the Cardinals have a losing record and are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games. The Cardinals can get up for some of the better teams in the MAC, but they aren't strong enough to lay double-digits against any of the conference teams with the exception of Northern Illinois.
02-26-21	New Mexico State v. Tarleton St OVER 131		78-51	Loss	-110	15 h 17 m	Show
The oddsmaker must have had a hard time putting a total on this matchup. Tarlton has played a lot of non-division schools so its season numbers are skewed. Tarlton, for instance, held some school named SW Advetist to 26 points. Tarlton averages more than 76 points a game and hits more than 39 percent of its 3-point shots. New Mexico State has produced at least 65 points in each of its last six games.
02-26-21	UAB v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 145		64-57	Win	100	14 h 1 m	Show
Alabama-Birmingham has the fourth-best defense in the country giving up 59.1 points a game. That's bad news for San Antonio, who rely heavily on their backcourt for scoring. The Under is 6-1-1 in UAB's last eight road games. The Blazers, though, have suspect scoring. UAB's statistics are skewed by their last game when it scored 117 points against Rust College. In their previous four games, the Blazers couldn't break 64 points. San Antonio flashed defensive potential three games ago holding Florida International to 47 points.
02-26-21	Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3		58-43	Loss	-106	7 h 40 m	Show
Valparaiso is better than its 9-16 record. Valparaiso dealt Drake its first loss of the season and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in its other game against them. Valparaiso also played Loyola of Chicago very tough losing by just two to the Ramblers. Indiana State has a below offense and has given up 70 or more points in each of its last three games.
02-26-21	Bowling Green +4 v. Akron		83-71	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
Akron is not trustworthy. The Zips just lost by 17 points to shorthanded Ohio in their last game. The Bobcats hadn't played in 21 days prior to that game because of COVID-19 protocols. Bowling Green can score with any MAC team averaging 78.4 points, which places the Falcons in the top 40 in the country for scoring. The Falcons also have stepped up defensively in their last two games.
02-26-21	Nebraska-Omaha v. Denver UNDER 149		80-76	Loss	-110	13 h 4 m	Show
Omaha-Nebraska is averaging just 60 points in its last four games. Denver has misleading statistics.The Pioneers have played two overtime games this month with both teams scoring in the 80's during each matchup. If you count regulation only, Denver hasn't broken the 70-point barrier in six of its last eight games.

Service	Profit
Calvin King	$1,322
Mike Williams	$1,223
Will Rogers	$1,010
Rob Vinciletti	$843
Hunter Price	$836
Matt Fargo	$641
John Ryan	$628
Brandon Lee	$610
Black Widow	$527
Tom Macrina	$527

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