Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-27-21 | Tennessee State v. Eastern Kentucky OVER 150.5 | Top | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
Extremely fast-paced. Tremendous scoring. Bad defense. All of that fits Eastern Kentucky and those factors are why the Colonels have gone Over in 13 of their last 16 games. I see another Over in this matchup as Tennessee State has gone Over in its last six games. Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky played each other two weeks ago and the total flew Over with the Colonels winning, 93-73, for a combined 166 points. The Tigers shot just 39 percent from the floor in that game, too. The Tigers have scored 73 or more points in three of their last four games. Eastern Kentucky surrenders 73.8 points per game, which ranks 265th. So Tennessee State should be good for at least 73 points this time around, too. Eastern Kentucky is the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels have scored 81 or more points in five of their past six games. Tennessee State ranks 256th defensively. | |||||||
02-27-21 | Abilene Christian v. Central Arkansas +17.5 | 82-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Central Arkansas is in revenge mode after a 93-58 road loss to Abilene Christian on Jan. 23. Central Arkansas was banged-up earlier, but now is healthier. The Bears are 4-1 ATS when catching 11 or more points this season. They have scored 68 or more points in three of their past five games. Abilene Christian has surrendered 69 or more points in two of its last four games. The Wildcats have failed to cover five of their last six away contests. | |||||||
02-27-21 | SE Missouri State v. SIU-Edwardsville +3.5 | 69-63 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
The spot and dynamics are right for SIU Edwardsville to pull off this Ohio Valley Conference upset. The Cougars were nipped by Southeast Missouri State, 64-62, as 3-point road 'dogs on Jan. 28. The Redhawks may have had some home cooking in that one as they shot 32 free throws compared to 17 for the Cougars. SIU Edwardsville has held its last two foes, Morehead State and Tennessee-Martin, to 56 and 53 points, respectively. The Cougars have covered seven of the last eight times when meeting a below .500 opponent. Southeast Missouri State may be dealing with a letdown spot after upsetting Eastern Illinois on the road two days ago. The Redhawks are 6-17-1 ATS the last 24 times following a victory. | |||||||
02-27-21 | Texas Southern v. Alabama State +10.5 | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker isn't paying enough attention to the current form of these two teams. I guess you can't blame him with this being a Southwest Athletic Conference matchup. Alabama State has improved its defense holding four of its past five foes to fewer than 69 points a game. Alabama State has a top-50 defense against 3-pointers. Texas Southern is just an average scoring team and a terrible 3-point shooting team. If you toss out the Tigers' victory against Mississippi Valley State - one of the worst teams in Division I - they are giving up 72.5 points in their last four games. | |||||||
02-27-21 | Central Michigan +11.5 v. Ball State | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Central Michigan hung in against Buffalo on the road in its last game losing, 85-73, easily covering as 21 1/2-point 'dogs. Buffalo only outscored Central Michigan by four points in the second half. Ball State hasn't been a favorite in more than a month. This isn't surprising considering the Cardinals have a losing record and are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games. The Cardinals can get up for some of the better teams in the MAC, but they aren't strong enough to lay double-digits against any of the conference teams with the exception of Northern Illinois. | |||||||
02-26-21 | New Mexico State v. Tarleton St OVER 131 | 78-51 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker must have had a hard time putting a total on this matchup. Tarlton has played a lot of non-division schools so its season numbers are skewed. Tarlton, for instance, held some school named SW Advetist to 26 points. Tarlton averages more than 76 points a game and hits more than 39 percent of its 3-point shots. New Mexico State has produced at least 65 points in each of its last six games. | |||||||
02-26-21 | UAB v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 145 | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham has the fourth-best defense in the country giving up 59.1 points a game. That's bad news for San Antonio, who rely heavily on their backcourt for scoring. The Under is 6-1-1 in UAB's last eight road games. The Blazers, though, have suspect scoring. UAB's statistics are skewed by their last game when it scored 117 points against Rust College. In their previous four games, the Blazers couldn't break 64 points. San Antonio flashed defensive potential three games ago holding Florida International to 47 points. | |||||||
02-26-21 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3 | 58-43 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Valparaiso is better than its 9-16 record. Valparaiso dealt Drake its first loss of the season and lost by just three to the Bulldogs in its other game against them. Valparaiso also played Loyola of Chicago very tough losing by just two to the Ramblers. Indiana State has a below offense and has given up 70 or more points in each of its last three games. | |||||||
02-26-21 | Bowling Green +4 v. Akron | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Akron is not trustworthy. The Zips just lost by 17 points to shorthanded Ohio in their last game. The Bobcats hadn't played in 21 days prior to that game because of COVID-19 protocols. Bowling Green can score with any MAC team averaging 78.4 points, which places the Falcons in the top 40 in the country for scoring. The Falcons also have stepped up defensively in their last two games. | |||||||
02-26-21 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Denver UNDER 149 | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Omaha-Nebraska is averaging just 60 points in its last four games. Denver has misleading statistics.The Pioneers have played two overtime games this month with both teams scoring in the 80's during each matchup. If you count regulation only, Denver hasn't broken the 70-point barrier in six of its last eight games. | |||||||
02-25-21 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 67-59 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
Northwestern has yet to win in 2021 and I certainly don't expect the Wildcats to end that streak at Minnesota. After starting 3-0 in the Big Ten, Northwestern has lost its last 13 games going 3-9-1 ATS. The Wildcats have lost eight of those matchups by double-digits. You have to go back to the 2016-17 season to find the last time a team opened 3-0 in conference and then lost that many in a row. Minnesota isn't a good road team. But the Gophers are extremely tough at home where they are 13-2 at Williams Arena. They have covered eight of their last 10 home contests. However, their last game was a 94-63 home defeat to fifth-ranked Illinois. The Gophers can't afford a slip-up here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. The oddsmaker has opened this line way too low even considering the Gophers have a pair of key injuries with guard Gabe Kalscheur out and center Liam Robbins, the top shot-blocker in the Big Ten, not likely to play due to a foot injury. However, the Gophers have battled injuries all season. Senior forward Brandon Johnson is solid and can supply some of Robbins' inside presence. Marcus Carr leads Minnesota in scoring at 19 points a game. Nobody else averages more than 12 points a game for the Gophers so the scoring is well distributed. Minnesota has beaten third-ranked Michigan, fourth-ranked Ohio State, ninth-ranked Iowa, Purdue and Michigan State all at home. Taking care of business against free-falling Northwestern shouldn't prove difficult for Minnesota especially being in must-win mode. | |||||||
02-25-21 | Fairleigh Dickinson +3 v. Sacred Heart | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Fairleigh Dickinson averages a respectable 75.2 points per game and is the 23rd-best 3-point shooting team in the country. Sacred Heart has permitted 76 or more points in three of its last four games. The Pioneers average four points fewer per game than Fairleigh Dickinson and are a below average defensive team. They lost much of their scoring from last season and have not replaced that depth. Only two Sacred Heart players average more than eight points per game. Elyjah Williams gives Fairleigh Dickinson the best big man on the court. | |||||||
02-25-21 | St Francis NY v. Merrimack UNDER 139 | 84-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Merrimack just held Bryant, the fourth-highest scoring team in the nation, to 76 points in its last game. That was nearly 10 points under Bryant's season average. If you discount that game, though, Merrimack is surrendering just 54.8 points per game during their past five contests. St. Francis of Brooklyn has gone Under in 10 of its last 14 road games. I see the Terriers struggling offensively here, too, dealing with the Warriors' zone defense and slow tempo. Merrimack ranks in the bottom-20 in offensive efficiency. The Warriors also are among the worst 20 teams in free throw percentage. They average fewer than 66 points a game. The Under has cashed in 20 of Merrimack's past 27 games. There were not more than 111 combined points scored in either of the team's two meetings last season. | |||||||
02-24-21 | Xavier v. Providence +1.5 | 68-83 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show | |
Let's face it, Providence isn't going to make the NCAA Tournament unless it happens to win the Big East Tournament. That's certainly not likely to happen. But if the Friars have one game they want to win and play spoiler, it's this matchup against Xavier. This is Providence's Super Bowl home game. The Friars have had this rematch circled ever since Colby Jones drained a 3-point shot with one second left to give the Musketeers a 74-73 home win against Providence on Jan. 10. The Musketeers scored the final eight points to pull off the victory. Now this is Providence's revenge spot. The Friars have defeated Xavier six of the last eight times at home. Xavier has been inconsistent since returning from a COVID-19 hiatus This is just the Musketeers' fourth game this month. Providence has been playing stronger defense. If you discount the Friars' 92-81 loss to St. John's, they've allowed 61.8 points in regulation during their last six games. | |||||||
02-24-21 | Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State OVER 154.5 | 68-83 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
The teams met on Jan. 20 and Nicholls State won, 92-83, for a total of 175 points scored. I don't see less scoring happening in the rematch here. Houston Baptist is a bottom-10 defense giving up 81.4 points a game. The Huskies have been even worse lately surrendering 83 points during their last three games. Nicholls State has scored at least 80 points in four of its past seven games. The Colonels should be able to get a number of easy inside baskets and layups off turnovers. | |||||||
02-24-21 | McNeese State +4.5 v. Southeastern Louisiana | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for McNeese State. But the Cowboys can gain a measure of self-respect in this revenge spot against Southeast Louisiana, a team they lost to, 92-88, on Jan. 20. Studying the matchup, I firmly believe McNeese State has more edges not to mention huge motivation. So I see outstanding line value. The Cowboys average 82.2 points per game. That's 15 more points per game than Southeast Louisiana. The Cowboys rank 10th in the country in 3-point percentage at 39.8 percent. The Lions, by contrast, are one of the worst from beyond the arc ranking 328th in 3-point percentage. The Lions also give up 76.4 points while ranking 328th in defensive field goal percentage. The Cowboys give up an average of 71.7 points. Southeast Louisiana is vulnerable inside to big man Keyshawn Feazell and to the long-rang perimeter shooting depth of the Cowboys. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Oklahoma -9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 57-62 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
The teams met back on Jan. 19. It was no contest. Oklahoma won, 76-50. I see a similar-type result here. Kansas State is actually in a fat and happy mood having upset TCU on the road this past Saturday, 62-54, as 6 1/2-point 'dogs. That ended a 13-game losing streak for the Wildcats. Oklahoma isn't going to take the Wildcats so lightly now especially after falling behind Iowa State in the second half during their matchup this past Saturday. The Sooners ended up winning by 10, but they were coasting in the first half with a 21-point lead. The Sooners hold edges across the board against Kansas State, including outscoring the Wildcats by an average of nearly 14 points a game. The Wildcats don't have much of a home-court either. Prior to beating TCU on the road, they lost by 18 points at home to Kansas six days ago. The Wildcats are just 9-23 ATS in their past 32 home contests. | |||||||
02-23-21 | St. John's v. Villanova UNDER 154 | 58-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
St. John's leads the Big East Conference in forcing turnovers at 17 per game. The Red Storm forced Villanova into a season-high 17 turnovers when they beat the Wildcats, 70-59, three weeks ago. The Red Storm was extremely physical in that game. I don't see them changing their defensive strategy this time around after it worked so well last time against the Wildcats. Villanova is coming off one of its best defensive games of the season setting new lows for defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage in a 68-60 victory against Connecticut this past Saturday. The Wildcats have allowed more than 74 points in regulation just once in 17 games this season. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan OVER 146 | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Bowling Green has its best scoring games on the road. The Falcons are averaging 83.3 points during their last six away contests. The Over is 22-10 in the Falcons' last 32 road games. The Falcons are facing an Eastern Michigan defense that allows 75 points per game and ranks in the bottom-20 in defensive field goal percentage. The Eagles got some of the rust off playing Kent State this past Saturday. Prior to that game, the Eagles last played on Jan. 26. The Over is 9-3 in Eastern Michigan's last 12 games. The Eagles are an excellent free throw shooting team. They should contribute their share of points as Bowling Green has permitted at least 76 points in five of its last seven games. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -125 | 69-53 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
I really like the job Mike Young is doing with Virginia Tech in his second season as the Hokies' head man. The Hokies are 9-1 at home and have knocked off four ranked teams, including eighth-ranked Virginia, 65-51, during their last home game back on Jan. 30. Virginia Tech holds big rebounding and defensive edges on Georgia Tech. The Hokies last played on Feb. 6. So that accounts for why I find this line opening so short. I don't believe that will matter, though. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois OVER 143 | 102-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Buffalo is one of the top scoring teams in the nation averaging 81.4 points a game. The Bulls have produced 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Northern Illinois is 2-5 at home this season. The Over is 10-1 the last 11 times the Bulls have been on the road facing a foe with a sub .500 home record. The Huskies have a terrible defense ranking 288th. Their defensive rankings are even worse in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Huskies have surrendered 78 or more points in three of their last four games. Their offense, though, has perked up lately. They are averaging 70 points during their past two games. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Akron +2.5 v. Ohio | 73-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
The Zips give up nearly four points fewer per game than Ohio. Akron destroyed the Bobcats, 90-70, when they met Dec. 22. It was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings Akron has beaten Ohio. That was two months ago. But circumstances are even more in favor of Akron now. The Zips are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They trail Toledo by just one-half game for first place in the Mid-American Conference. Ohio last played three weeks ago. The Bobcats have been set back by a COVID-19 outbreak. This has cost them practice time not to mention important game experience. I don't see them being anywhere in peak form in their first game back. Ohio coach Jeff Boals even said this himself. The Zips have won five of their last six road games. The lone defeat during this span occurred to league-leader Toledo. | |||||||
02-22-21 | Houston Baptist v. Northwestern State OVER 154.5 | 80-86 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
Some of the worst defenses in the country reside in the Southland Conference. Houston Baptist and Northwest State can take its places at the head table because each school is a prime example of this. Houston Baptist ranks 339th in the country defensively yielding 81.1 points a game. The Huskies are capable offensively, though. They've reached 80 points in three of their last six games. The Huskies can hit their 3-point shots and are a good free throw shooting team. Northwest State permits 79.6 points a game, which ranks 333rd. The teams met early last month and Houston Baptist won, 99-93, in overtime. There were 168 points scored during regulation. | |||||||
02-22-21 | Eastern Kentucky -4 v. SE Missouri State | 87-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I want Eastern Kentucky in this rapid revenge spot and the line is reasonable enough to get involved. Eastern Kentucky went into this past Saturday's game against Southeast Missouri State 18-6 and riding a three-game win and covering streak while averaging 88.3 points during this span. The Redhawks entered the matchup 9-14 and 5 1/2-point underdogs. Final score: Southeast Missouri State 94, Eastern Kentucky 72. Huh? The Redhawks were on fire hitting 14 of 25 3-point shots, way above their 35 percent season average. The Redhawks average fewer than 69 points per game on the season. They are below average defensively and commit a lot of turnovers. Eastern Kentucky had an off-game. The Colonels were outshot 58.3 percent to 36.2 percent from the floor. The Colonels are the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation at 82.5. I see them bouncing back in a big way here. Southeast Missouri State is 7-19-1 ATS the past 27 times following a spread cover. Eastern Kentucky has covered 16 of its last 22 road games. | |||||||
02-21-21 | South Florida v. Temple +1 | 83-76 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Since returning from a month-long COVID-19 hiatus, South Florida has gone 0-3 SU and ATS losing to Central Florida, Houston and Tulane by a combined 36 points. This is just the Bulls' fourth game since Jan. 9. They have averaged just 63 points in their last three games. The Bulls have failed to reach 70 points in each of their last seven games. They are a bottom-20 free throw shooting team. Temple gives up fewer than 70 points a game. This is the Owls' first home game since Feb. 4. I think they're a bargain in this price range. | |||||||
02-21-21 | Rider v. Quinnipiac -145 | 68-93 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
The teams just met yesterday. It was no contest. Quinnipiac won, 80-64. It was Rider's first game since Jan. 23. Maybe the Broncos got some rust off. But I don't see them staying that close to the Bobcats, who rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Bobcats have scored at least 67 points in each of their last seven games. Rider is now 1-5 in its last six games. | |||||||
02-20-21 | Pepperdine v. Santa Clara UNDER 143.5 | 82-86 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Pepperdine is showing defensive improvement. The Waves are giving up five fewer points per game since conference play began. They have allowed just 65.3 points during their last three games. Santa Clara ranks 300th in scoring at 65.7. The Broncos face the nation's fourth-best 3-point defense, too. Santa Clara, though, ranks 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Pepperdine has averaged 68 points in its last two games. The Under has cashed in seven of Santa Clara's last eight home games for 88 percent. So I see this total being set too high. | |||||||
02-20-21 | Illinois v. Minnesota +5.5 | 94-63 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
No major conference team is more different at home compared to the road than Minnesota. The difference is insane. The Gophers are 0-8 away and 13-1 at home. Minnesota's average home victory is by around 13 points. Among the teams the Gophers have knocked off at home are Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Gophers have covered eight of their last nine games in Minnesota. This also is a circle-the-wagons game for the Gophers, who probably can't afford a loss here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota also has revenge for a 92-65 road loss to Illinois. The Illini haven't been nearly as effective on the road. They've lost to Rutgers and needed overtime to post victories against Indiana and Nebraska, two games ago where they were 14-point favorites. | |||||||
02-20-21 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Fairleigh Dickinson -1 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Fairleigh Dickinson has too much speed, quickness and backcourt edge for Mount St. Mary's. Fairleight Dickinson averages nearly 15 points more per game than Mount St. Mary's. The Knights can dent a strong Mount St. Mary's defense with excellent 3-point shooting. The Knights rank 19th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.8 percent. Mount St. Mary's has been held under 68 points in eight of its last nine games. | |||||||
02-20-21 | New Hampshire +4 v. UMass Lowell | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering five of the last six times. I see that trend continuing here. New Hampshire gives up five fewer points per game than Lowell. The River Hawks have given up an average of 75.3 points in their last three games and are 8-18-1 ATS in their past 27 home games. | |||||||
02-20-21 | Loyola Maryland v. Lehigh +4.5 | 75-47 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Lehigh hasn't played since Jan. 31. The Mountain Hawks are being penalized too severely on the line because of that. They would be above .500 if their six games against Bucknell and Navy were thrown out. Bucknell and Navy are a combined 15-6. Lehigh isn't in that class. But neither is Loyola Maryland. These are a pair of lower-tier Patriot League teams. Loyola Maryland is 2-7 on the season. The Greyhounds rank 287th defensively and 324th in 3-point defense. They have failed to cover their past four road games. The Greyhounds can't win close games either going 0-6 in games decided by four or fewer points. | |||||||
02-20-21 | Siena v. Niagara OVER 128 | 62-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The combination of two below average offenses and long layoffs for each team have resulted in this very low total. Yes, neither team has played yet this month. But the oddsmaker has overcompensated for this in my view with too low of a total. The rust element also could factor defensively. Siena has three legitimate scoring threats led by Jaylen Pickett. The Saints have scored 74 or more points in 60 percent of their games. Niagara has averaged 73 points in its last three games. The Purple Eagles also have given up an average of 76.3 points in their past three games. | |||||||
02-19-21 | California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game. Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State. Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor. | |||||||
02-19-21 | Cal-Riverside v. UC San Diego UNDER 136.5 | 81-75 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Cal Riverside is a very strong defensive team ranking 10th in the nation surrendering just 61.1 points a game. San Diego is a weak team whose scoring statistics are skewed by a 101-point performance against Bethesda, a school that has no business playing Division I opponents. Even with that bogus bump in scoring, San Diego averages fewer than 70 points a game. San Diego ranks a respectable 104th defensively, though. San Diego has allowed just 68.3 points in its last three games. The Under is 15-7-1 in Riverside's last 23 games. | |||||||
02-19-21 | Southern Miss v. Florida International -2.5 | 85-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Florida International isn't good. But at this price range, the Panthers are worth backing. Southern Mississippi has lost eight straight games going 1-6-1 ATS in those contests. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 62 points during this losing streak. Florida International has scored more than 62 points in 19 of its 23 games. The Panthers have the best player on the court in Antonio Daye Jr. He gives the Panthers a huge backcourt advantage in this matchup. | |||||||
02-19-21 | Monmouth v. Iona OVER 149 | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
This will be Iona's fourth game since going through a long layoff due to COVID-19. The Gaels are one of the better scoring teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but their defense has been bad during their return. Iona gave up an average of 72 points in two games against Manhattan, which is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country averaging 63.3 points. The Gaels also permitted 74 points to Quinnipiac, which is nearly seven points above the Bobcats' average. This doesn't bode well for Iona facing Monmouth, which averages 77.9 points and plays the fastest pace of any MAAC team. The Gaels should contribute their share of points towards the Over, too, as Mommouth ranks 241st in defensive scoring. | |||||||
02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5 | 72-70 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
I consider this line short. Youngstown State is on a season-best five-game win streak. The Penguins are showing defensive improvement holding their last four opponents to 70 points or fewer. They are tough at home, too, going 8-3-1 ATS during their last 12 home contests. Youngstown State averages three points more per game than IUPUI and plays much better defense. The Jaguars rank 288th in scoring defense allowing 75.5 points a game. They are 327th in defensive field goal percentage. The Jaguars have failed to cover five of the last six times they've gone against an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
02-18-21 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga OVER 143 | 65-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
It was a challenge for the oddsmaker to set a correct Over/Under on this matchup since St. Mary's is the 14th-best defensive team in the nation giving up 61.8 points while Gonzaga averages an NCAA Division I-best 93 points per game. In my view, the oddsmaker came up short on the correct total as I see a high-scoring game unlike the first meeting between the teams won by Gonzaga, 73-59, on Jan. 16 in California. St. Mary's coach Randy Bennett knows defense is not going to trump Gonzaga's high-scoring ways especially with this matchup being in Spokane, Wash. "You've got to generate some points against those guys because they're going to score," Bennett was quoted as saying about the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are going to have plenty of incentive, too, to keep their feet pressed to the gas. Family members are being allowed to attend Gonzaga home games for the first time this season. Gonzaga warmed up for this game by scoring 100 points in a 39-point victory at San Francisco last Saturday. St. Mary's had six games in a row postponed due to COVID-19 concerns. The Gaels got back into action this past Saturday losing, 60-58, at Pepperdine. So the Gaels should come in with plenty of energy and the rust off from having played a game. | |||||||
02-18-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan OVER 136 | 64-71 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
Michigan averages 78.9 points a game, 40th-best in the land. But there was some question just how potent the Wolverines could be when they played at Wisconsin this past Sunday against the defensive-minded Badgers. Michigan hadn't played since Jan. 22 because of COVID-19 issues. The Wolverines began slow, but they erased doubts scoring 40 points in the second half in a 67-59 victory. Now the Wolverines are home for the first time since Jan. 19 and the rust is off. I'm expecting big scoring production from Michigan. Rutgers' Big Ten defensive numbers look better than what they really are. The statistics are skewed because the Scarlet Knights held Northwestern to an average of 53 points in two games. Discounting Northwestern, these are the point totals the Scarlet Knights have yielded in their last five Big Ten road games - 79 to Iowa, 70 to Indiana, 75 to Penn State, 68 to Michigan State and 80 to Ohio State. So I project Michigan to score a lot of points here. Rutgers averages nearly 72 points a game so the Scarlet Knights can do their share in getting this total to go Over. | |||||||
02-18-21 | Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco OVER 135.5 | 68-63 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Loyola Marymount enters this matchup off its highest three-game scoring stretch of the season. The Lions are averaging 77 points in their past three games. The Over has cashed in five of their last six games. Consequently, San Francisco is off its worst three-game defensive stretch of the season allowing 81 points a game. The Lions are 2-4 on the road this season. The Over is 15-5 the last 20 times the Dons have hosted an opponent with a losing away mark. The Dons also like to fire away from 3-point range. If they are hot look out. Loyola Marymount has below average 3-point defensive statistics. | |||||||
02-18-21 | Eastern Kentucky v. Tenn-Martin OVER 150.5 | 89-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky is the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels play at break-neck speed and have proven to be a strong Over team in this type of situation. They are 19-7 to the Over during their past 26 road contests and the Over is 13-3-1 the past 17 times the Colonels have gone against a below .500 opponent. Tennessee-Martin is 7-13 and one of the lower teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. Lack of defense has been a major reason why the Skyhawks are so bad. They give up 77.3 points a game, which ranks 309th in the country. They also are 333rd in defensive field goal percentage. Eastern Kentucky should encounter little trouble putting up a high total. The Colonels, though, are well below average defensively giving up 73.7 points, which ranks 266th. Tennessee-Martin has averaged more than 70 points during its last three home games. | |||||||
02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times.Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Mercer v. East Tennessee State OVER 137 | 71-64 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
There hasn't been a total this low on a Mercer game during the Bears' past dozen matchups. It's too low in my estimation. Mercer is the 39th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging more than 79 points per game. The Bears, however, give up 74.3 points a game, which ranks 272nd. They've permitted at least 70 points in 15 of their last 16 games. East Tennessee State averages 70 points a game. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +6.5 | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
COVID-19 has been a definite handicapping factor this college basketball season. It certainly factors in this matchup and is a major reason why I like home 'dog Quinnipiac. Iona just returned from a COVID layoff of close to two months playing two home games against Manhattan this past Friday and Saturday. The Gaels were favored in both of those matchups and ended up splitting the two games. It was their first action since Dec. 23. No other school had gone longer between games this season. Now Iona plays a road game for the first time since Dec. 19. I don't think all of the rust is off yet, not to mention so many missed practices. This will be Quinnipiac's fifth game in 11 days. The Bobcats are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Quinnipiac is ranked 172nd defensively in the KenPom adjusted defensive rankings. The Bobcats have the seventh-best defensive field goal percentage in the nation. Iona is ranked 247th in the KenPom adjusted defensive ratings. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times in the series. So I'll take the points with the better defensive team in the better situation. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Xavier v. St. John's UNDER 156 | Top | 84-93 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
The two teams met back on Jan. 6. Xavier defeated St. John's, 69-61, at home with the total falling Under by 20 points. Now a little more than a month later we have the same two teams and the same total. So what's changed? St. John's has gotten better. Xavier is trying to get the rust off after a long layoff due to COVID protocols. If anything, these changes favor another Under. This is just Xavier's second game since Jan. 30 and third since Jan. 10. The Musketeers must rely on their defense - their strength - because it's going to take time to regain any offensive continuity. Xavier ranks 62nd in the nation in scoring defense and 44th in defensive field goal percentage. The Musketeers did allow 80 points to Connecticut in their first game back from COVID. Prior to that game, however, the Musketeers had given up an average of 63 points to their three previous opponents (Butler, Providence and St. John's). Xavier has had St. John's number, too, beating the Red Storm 12 consecutive times. St. John's is much more offensively-inclined. But the Red Storm can step up defensively. Just ask Villanova. The Red Storm held the Wildcats to a season-low 59 points when the teams met 13 days ago. Villanova is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78.6 points. St. John's should have its defensive intensity sky high in trying to end their long losing streak to Xavier. | |||||||
02-16-21 | St Francis NY v. Fairleigh Dickinson UNDER 161 | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
These are two bad defenses. St. Francis gave up 80 points in its last game. Fairleigh Dickinson yielded 95 points in its past game. That may have influenced the oddsmaker because this total is set too high even given the low quality of the defenses. St. Francis has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during eight of its last 10 games. The Under is 9-3 in its last 12 road matchups. As for Fairleigh Dickinson, yes the Knights surrendered 95 points to Wagner in their last game. But in their previous three games, the Knights gave up an average of 69.3 points. That was against Wagner and two games versus Long Island, both of which have above average offenses. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Wagner +4.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | 61-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride Wagner, which has won and covered its last five games. Mount St. Mary's is the stronger defensive team. But the Mountaineers don't have enough offense to cover this number. They rank 329th in the country in scoring at 63.5 points. The Mountaineers have been held under 68 points in six of their last seven games. Wagner has produced at least 74 points in eight of its past nine games. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Hampton v. Longwood OVER 135 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This Big South Conference matchup between a pair of below .500 teams, Hampton and Longwood, definitely is a below-the-radar game. I see it in a different way, though. I think it's an oddsmaker's mistake as far as setting the total too low. Hampton averages 69 points. The Pirates have scored 69 or more points in six of their last eight games. They commit the fewest turnovers per possession of any team in the Big South. The Pirates can take advantage of a Longwood defense that ranks 249th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Longwood is in action for just the third time since Jan. 30. The Lancers are getting back their scoring touch. They beat Gardner-Webb, 78-71, in their last game this past Friday. The 78 points tied the Lancers' highest-scoring performance during their past 15 games. The Lancers should have no trouble scoring in the 70's. Hampton gives up 73.6 points, which ranks 260th. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Eastern Kentucky -8.5 v. Tennessee Tech | 83-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky defeated hapless Tennessee Tech, 90-80, last month despite not playing well. The Colonels were outshot from the field by Tennessee Tech and made just 4 of 7 free throws. Tennessee Tech was 9 of 12 from the foul line. The Colonels are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. That's 18 points more per game than the Golden Eagles average. Eastern Kentucky is 16-5. Tennessee Tech is 3-19. The Golden Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times facing an above .500 foe. Eastern Kentucky has covered 14 of its last 19 road contests and is 13-5-2 ATS the past 20 times going against foes with a losing record. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Stephen F Austin -9.5 v. New Orleans | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Stephen F. Austin is 12-3. New Orleans is 4-12. So that accounts for the Lumberjacks being a strong road favorite. It just doesn't account enough in my view. The Lumberjacks have won nine of their last 10 games, scoring 78 or more points in all but one of those games. New Orleans surrenders 76 points a game. The Privateers have been at their worst lately giving up an average of 82 points in their past three games, all losses. The Privateers are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times facing an opponent with a winning record. | |||||||
02-14-21 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech UNDER 142.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm expecting Pittsburgh to tighten its defense against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 63.8 points in their last six games if you toss out an 82-point performance against Notre Dame. So their current numbers are a bit misleading. Georgia Tech has held eight of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 69 points. The teams met twice last season and there were a combined 137 and 130 points scored in those games. | |||||||
02-13-21 | UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points. | |||||||
02-13-21 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 142 | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
These two Big 12 Conference teams met twice last season. There were 126 points and 123 points, respectively, scored in those two matchups. I'm expecting the same kind of defensive intensity this time around, too. TCU averages under 70 points and is a terrible free throw shooting team. Texas gives up fewer than 69 points. The Longhorns may catch a break if Mike Miles, TCU's second-leading scorer at 14.8 points, has to miss a second straight game due to illness. | |||||||
02-13-21 | Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 139.5 | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Perhaps the oddsmaker is taking just the final score in Indiana's last three games into account because I find this total to be too high. The Hoosiers have played two overtime games during their last three matchups. If you go by regulation, the Hooisers are holding their last three foes to 62.3 points a game. Ohio State, like Indiana, gives up an average of 68 points per game. The Buckeyes have held four of their last six opponents to 67 points or fewer. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Detroit v. Cleveland State OVER 137.5 | Top | 89-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an excellent Horizon League matchup. Detroit has won seven of its last eight games, while Cleveland State leads the Horizon League. I'm expecting far more offense than the oddsmaker is projecting. Detroit averages 75.8 points. That number goes up to 80.5 points if you take just the last six games. The Titans win with offense. They are a bad defensive team. The Titans also have a strong history of going Over in away games. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans' last 26 road matchups. Cleveland State is averaging 76.8 points in its last four games. The Vikings face a Detroit defense that ranks 277th in points allowed at 74.7, is 289th in defensive field goal percentage and 326th in 3-point defense. Opponents have dented the Titans' defense for 72 or more points in nine of the past 12 games. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last 10 home games, too. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Bellarmine v. North Alabama +6 | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an important Atlantic Sun Conference game especially for North Alabama. If the Lions can pull the outright upset they would trail Bellarmine by just one game in the loss column for the conference lead. North Alabama only has been this big of a 'dog once this season and that was back in December against Indiana. Bellarmine has failed to cover in seven of the past eight instances when meeting an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
02-12-21 | UMass Lowell v. Albany UNDER 143 | 79-71 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
These are two below average offenses who I don't see reaching 70 points. UMass-Lowell averages 68.4 points and is a bad free throw shooting team. The River Hawks have been held under 70 points in more than half of their games. Albany is better defensively than on offense where it averages 68.4 points. The Great Danes have held 60 percent of their foes to under 71 points. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee +17.5 v. Wright State | 81-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off a pair of home upset losses to hot Northern Kentucky, which has now won six in a row. That probably has contributed to this line being over inflated in my view. UWM was 2-1 in its three previous games, including a road upset overtime win against Cleveland State, the Horizon League leader. If the Panthers can upset Cleveland State they should be able to keep within single digits of Wright State. It was a four-point game when the teams last met on Jan. 31, 2020 with Wright State prevailing, 65-61. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Middle Tennessee +17 v. Marshall | 79-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
It has been a disappointing season for 5-11 Middle Tennessee State. But the Blue Raiders should not be this large of an underdog. Middle Tennessee State lacks Marshall's firepower, but gives up five fewer points per game than the Thundering Herd. The Blue Raiders have been particularly strong in defending 3-point shots ranking 12th in the nation. The Blue Raiders enter this matchup with a little momentum and confidence, too, coming off consecutive victories against Charlotte. This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cover the past four times. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington +1.5 | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Texas-Arlington opened a slight underdog. The 'dog has covered each of the last seven times in this series. But Arlington shouldn't be a home 'dog. The Mavericks would be riding a five-game win streak if not for an overtime loss to Arkansas State. The Mavericks average eight more points per game than Texas State and give up fewer than 70 points per game. The Bobcats average only 66.8 points on the season. They have averaged just 63 points in regulation during their last four games. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Eastern Washington -2.5 v. Montana State | 93-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm perplexed how short this line is because I rate Eastern Washington much higher than Montana State. The Eagles are on a five-game win streak and have covered 11 of their last 15 away games. Montana State is off a pair of road losses to Weber State in games that weren't close. The Bobcats are 1-5 ATS the past six times when going against an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Weber State v. Montana +1 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Montana is 7-5 in its last 12 games. But the Grizzlies' record is deceiving. They have lost a number of close games, including a six-point road loss to Arizona. The Grizzlies have a strong defense ranking 38th in the nation giving up 63.6 points per game. They also rate 25th in 3-point defense. That's a huge factor because Weber State is a strong perimeter shooting team. The Wildcats surrender six more points per game than Montana. This is not a good matchup for Weber State. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Long Island +4 v. Mt. St. Mary's | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
This is only the second time all season Long Island is an underdog. The Shark beat Wagner, 77-66, as 1-point road 'dogs on Jan. 14. I don't think they should be an underdog in this game to Mount St. Mary's. Mount St. Mary's is 5-5 in its last 10 games, losing two of its last three games while favored against Sacred Heart and Central Connecticut State. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Winthrop -3.5 v. Radford | 80-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
There's a huge class difference here that's not fully incorporated into the line. Winthrop had opened with 16 consecutive victories until losing, 57-55, as 12 1/2-point home favorites against UNC-Asheville in its last game. That was two weeks ago. The Eagles haven't played since. So they are more than ready to put that disturbing upset loss behind them. The Eagles are the class of the Big South Conference. Radford is a surprising 13-7, in second-place behind Winthrop in the league standings despite losing all of its top scorers from last season. None of Radford's players average double figures in scoring. Winthrop ranks 22nd in the nation in scoring at 81.3 points and has the conference's likely MVP in Chandler Vaudrin. Winthrop has proven itself in this type of situation going 13-4 ATS versus above .500 opponents and covering 17 of its past 24 road contests. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Wagner OVER 142.5 | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers just give a quick glance to small conference matchups like this one before quickly throwing out a total based on season numbers. But on closer inspection - considering current form - this Over/Under has been set too low. Fairleigh Dickinson averages 75 points on the season. That number goes up to 82.1 points in regulation if you look at the Knights' last six games. Wagner ranks 263rd in the nation defensively yielding nearly 74 points a game. Wagner has scored at least 74 points in six of its last seven games. Fairleigh Dickinson has one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 326th allowing 78.9 points. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Marquette v. Villanova OVER 139.5 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Marquette hosted Villanova back on Dec. 23. The results weren't pretty for the Golden Eagles. Villanova beat them, 85-68. That's a combined 153 points. The Wildcats didn't play again until Jan. 19 because of COVID-19 issues. This is their sixth game since their earlier meeting against Marquette. The Wildcats just defeated Georgetown, 84-74, at home this past Sunday. I believe the Wildcats are hitting their stride. They have balanced scoring with five players averaging in double figures. Marquette doesn't get many takeaways and has been hurt by giving up second-chance points. I believe Villanova has a high-scoring game just like in the first meeting. The Golden Eagles should hold up their end on the scoring ledger. They are averaging 70.3 points per game during their last three games. Villanova has permitted at least 68 points in six of its past seven games. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Southern Illinois v. Missouri State OVER 139.5 | 53-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker is giving too much credence to the Missouri Valley Conference being a defensive league with this low of a total on this matchup. Southern Illinois has surrendered at least 68 points in nine straight games. The Salukis rank 277th in defensive field goal percentage. They rank 10th in the MVC in points per possession and are last in the conference in 3-point defensive percentage. Missouri State averages 74.3 points. The Bears are fourth in the conference in points per possession and have the top free throw percentage in the league at 76.5 percent. They also rate second in the conference in two-point range. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Old Dominion v. Charlotte -1.5 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
I see good value in backing UNC Charlotte at home against Old Dominion even if the Monarchs get back guards Malik Curry and A.J. Oliver as expected. Curry is the Monarchs' leading scorer at 16.5 points. Charlotte has too much defense for Old Dominion and the Monarchs don't have enough offense to counter. The Monarchs rank 313th in the nation in scoring. They also are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests. The 49ers hold foes to 64.3 points a game, which ranks 47th. It's also six points fewer per game than Old Dominion gives up. Charlotte has won its last three home games, but is coming off a pair of road losses to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS following a straight-up defeat. | |||||||
02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler OVER 138 | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
I get that Butler is bad offensively, but I still think this total has been set too low. St. John's has won six in a row, reaching at least 70 points in each of those victories. Only once during this span have the Red Storm scored fewer than 74 points. Butler's defense is down this season. The Bulldogs rank 292nd in defensive field goal percentage. St. John's ranks 37th in scoring at 79.7 points. Look for Butler's offense to pick up now that transfer guard Bo Hodges is getting more comfortable. He became eligible this month and is averaging double figures giving the Bulldogs a much needed added scoring threat. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Arkansas v. Kentucky OVER 142 | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Kentucky could be the most disappointing team in the country. But the Wildcats have a history of coming on during the second half of the season. They have too many good athletes to have such a low-scoring average. There are signs the Wildcats could be ready to break loose. Kentucky scored 71 points in an 11-point home loss to Tennessee this past Saturday. The Volunteers rank sixth in the country giving up 59.6 points a game. Arkansas is not close to being in Tennessee's defensive class. The Razorbacks allow 69.4 points a game. Arkansas wins with its offense. The Razorbacks rank 12th in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points. They should have plenty of energy, too, having last played a week ago after last Saturday's game against Texas A&M was postponed. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Kent State v. Bowling Green | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
It has been a disappointing season for Bowling Green, who some thought would win the MAC title this season. I see the Falcons prevailing, though, in this quick revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode. Kent State defeated the Falcons, 96-91, at home on Jan. 27. The Golden Flashes shot 49 percent from the floor and made 17 of 21 free throws for 81 percent. Bowling Green shot 46 percent from the field and made 11 of 15 free throws. The Falcons have a strong senior group led by Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden. It's not too much to ask of the Falcons to just win the game. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Jackson State v. Southern UNDER 133 | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
These teams are better defensively than offensively. Jackson State has a top-100 defense and is 36-14-1 to the Under the past 51 times versus opponents with a win percentage below .400. The Tigers have held their last three foes to an average of 60.3 points. Southern gave up 72 points to Grambling two days ago in its last game. However, the Jaguars had also yielded only 60.3 points per game during their six games prior to the Grambling game. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5 | Top | 61-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Gardner-Webb v. USC Upstate UNDER 143.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Kudos to Gardner-Webb for scoring 91 points in its last game, a 91-64 victory against Presbyterian from this past Friday. But I'm not going to overreact to that performance as prior to that Gardnder-Webb averaged just 61 points during its previous three games. Now Gardner-Webb draws South Carolina Upstate. The Spartans are bad on defense. But they also are horrible on offense averaging fewer than 67 points a game. They have failed to break the 69-point barrier in eight of their last 10 games. The Under has cashed in seven of the Spartans' last 10 games. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Quinnipiac v. Fairfield UNDER 133.5 | 70-77 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
These two Metro Atlantic Athletic foes just met Sunday and Quinnipiac won, 78-63. That total was lined at 129 1/2. Now we have a higher total, but the same two teams. Quinnipiac shot 57 percent from the floor in Sunday's game. That was a fluke for the Bobcats. Even with that performance factored in, they still rank 289th in scoring at 66.8 points a game and 293rd in field goal percentage at 41.3 percent. Fairfield is even worse. The Stags rank 341st in scoring at 60.4 points and are 330th in field goal percentage at 39.3 percent. Their game yesterday was their first since Jan. 16 because of COVID issues. The Stags figure to struggle again offensively not just because of rust, but also because Quinnipiac ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage. | |||||||
02-07-21 | Temple v. Wichita State UNDER 141.5 | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Temple averages less than 64 points. That average shrinks to 62.7 if you take the Owls' last four games. The Owls barely manage to average 60 points when on the road. Wichita State is a solid defensive team giving up 69 points per game. The Shockers have held their past six home opponents to 64 points per game. The Shockers should maintain their defensive intensity throughout the game even if the score becomes lopsided after Tulane came back from 21 points down to cut the Shockers' lead to six points during the final minute in Wichita State's last game, a 75-67 victory this past Wednesday. Temple's strength is its defense. The Owls have held five of their last six foes to fewer than 69 points a game. That's in line with their season average of holding opponents to 68.5 points per game. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Northwestern v. Purdue -7 | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Purdue should be a double-digit favorite at home against Northwestern, which has lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in those games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the past seven times facing an above .500 foe. The Boilermakers are anxious to put a 61-60 rough loss to Maryland on Tuesday behind them. They hold a big edge inside with Trevion Williams and are expected to get back their second-leading scorer, Sasha Stefanovic. He has missed the last three games due to COVID-19 protocols. He's one of the top 3-point shooters in the Big Ten. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Chattanooga v. East Tennessee State UNDER 138.5 | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
UT-Chattanooga has stepped up defensively holding their last three foes to a respectable 68.3 points a game. East Tennessee State has a top-70 defense allowing fewer than 66 points per game. The Mocs haven't played too many defenses of this caliber. The Buccaneers' offensive numbers are inflated because of a recent 112-84 blowout victory against The Citadel. This is a Southern League matchup so the oddsmaker isn't doing a deep dive into this game. He's just set a total based on season statistics. In this case, the number is set too high. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Evansville +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game. Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games. | |||||||
02-06-21 | NC State -3.5 v. Boston College | 81-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
North Carolina State is the superior team. The Wolfpack are 7-7 and 3-6 in the ACC while Boston College is 3-10 and 1-6 in the ACC. The point spread with NC State a road favorite accounts for that. But what it doesn't fully account for is Boston College's situation. The Eagles haven't played in three weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Not only are they rusty, but their rotation could be unsettled. Walk-ons could draw important minutes. NC State has kept playing. The Wolfpack gave 14th-ranked Virginia a scare in their last game before losing, 64-47, this past Wednesday. | |||||||
02-05-21 | California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games. | |||||||
02-05-21 | Oral Roberts +5 v. North Dakota State | 54-61 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
There are four decent teams in the Summit League. These are two of them. North Dakota State is 10-8. Oral Roberts is 9-7. Oral Roberts averages 81.5 points, which ranks 24th in the nation. The Golden Eagles average 14 more points per game than North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles also have covered six of their last eight road games. They are 4-0 during their past four away contests averaging 90 points in those games. That's too much firepower for North Dakota State. | |||||||
02-05-21 | South Dakota v. South Dakota State OVER 150 | 64-56 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a battle of the two best teams in the Summit League. These teams win with offense. South Dakota ranks 114th in scoring at nearly 75 points a game. The Coyotes rank 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and are an excellent free throw shooting team. South Dakota State averages 80.5 points per game. The Jackrabbits rank third in 3-point percentage and are 22nd in field goal percentage. They, too, are good at the free throw line. So look for offense - not defense - in this matchup. That was the case back on Dec. 12 when the teams met at a neutral site. South Dakota won, 91-78, for a combined 169 points. South Dakota State was missing its second-leading scorer, Doug Wilson, for that game. Wilson averages 15.8 points. South Dakota is averaging 90.6 points in its last three games, all of which have gone Over. The Jackrabbits are averaging 89 points in their last five games. The Over has cashed in seven of their last eight lined games. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Eastern Washington -15 v. Idaho | 89-75 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington is among the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho isn't just the worst team in the Big Sky, but one of the worst in all of college basketball with an 0-13 record. The Eagles should have no problem exploiting a porous Idaho defense that ranks 314th. The Vandals have failed to cover in their last five games. They've lost those games by an average of 18.8 points. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5 | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Belmont v. Eastern Illinois +14 | 89-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
Belmont definitely is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference this season. But don't be shocked if Eastern Illinois stays within single digits. The teams met on Jan. 21 and Belmont won, 79-66, as 11 1/2-point home favorites. It was just a two-point game at halftime. Now the Bruins are larger favorites on the road. I don't see it. Eastern Illinois has some confidence after halting an eight-game losing streak with an upset road victory against SIU Edwardsville this past Tuesday. Belmont barely escaped Murray State this past Saturday, winning 72-71. | |||||||
02-04-21 | USC Upstate +9.5 v. Radford | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
I don't think Radford is justified being this high of a favorite. South Carolina Upstate has improved since an 0-9 start going 3-2 in its past five games. Radford averages less than two more points per game than South Carolina Upstate. Both teams are off long layoffs. South Carolina Upstate hasn't played since Jan. 15, while Radford was last in action on Jan. 25. So that puts some randomness into this matchup, which is good for the underdog. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Wagner v. St Francis NY -2 | 74-67 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
It doesn't matter if it's a major conference, or the Northeast Conference. When a line is off it's off. I believe the line in this Northeast Conference matchup is wrong. St. Francis-Brooklyn should be favored by much more. Wagner is 2-5. The Seahawks haven't played since Jan. 15 because of COVID-19 protocols. They have failed to cover in 21 of their last 27 road games, including going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home this season. St. Francis-Brooklyn averages 76.8 points. The Terriers outscore Wagner by nearly eight points a game. St. Francis is 4-4 on the season. The Terriers are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times hosting foes with a losing road record. The Terriers are not strong defensively. But they are too explosive for Wagner and are playing at home against a bad road team. Wagner is led in scoring by Elijah Ford, who averages 20.8 points. Ford, though, hasn't played since Dec. 22 due to a hand injury. If he returns to the lineup, he figures to be rusty. | |||||||
02-03-21 | SMU v. Tulsa +2.5 | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
These teams are close to even. Tulsa has the better American Athletic Conference record, gives up three fewer points per game than SMU and is home. So I'm not buying SMU as road chalk. The Mustangs are off a demoralizing 70-48 road loss to Houston this past Sunday. SMU is 2-8-1 in its last 11 road contests and 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall games. Tulsa is deserving of more respect. The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in the country defensively. They have pulled a number of conference upsets, including beating Houston and Memphis twice. | |||||||
02-03-21 | East Tennessee State v. Mercer -125 | 70-64 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
The combination of Mercer's high scoring and 6-foot-11 Maciej Bender's low-post defensive presence and shot blocking ability should provide Mercer with a comfortable victory. The Bears average 78 points per game, which is eight more points per contest than East Tennessee State averages. Mercer has balanced scoring led by Ross Cummings, who is one of the most accurate perimeter shooters in the country. Cummings, who averages 15.7 points, shoots 51.5 percent from the floor and has made 44.8 percent of his 3-point attempts. | |||||||
02-03-21 | Fordham v. Massachusetts -13 | Top | 54-60 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell. The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times. So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points. | |||||||
02-02-21 | USC -2 v. Stanford | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders. Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season. A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups. | |||||||
02-02-21 | Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss | 50-52 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on Tennessee after the Volunteers rolled past then 18th-ranked Kansas, 80-61, as 3-point favorites this past Saturday. A key takeaway from that game was not only restored Tennessee confidence - the Vols were 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in their three previous games - but that the Vols outrebounded the Jayhawks, 38-23, while giving up zero second-chance points. Mississippi doesn't shoot well. The Rebels rely on rebounding and second-chance points. That's going to prove difficult against the Volunteers, who have the sixth-stingiest defense in the nation giving up fewer than 60 points per game. Ole Miss isn't playing well. The Rebels have dropped two in a row, including a 71-61 road loss to Georgia this past Saturday. The Rebels have made just 25.9 percent of their 3-point shots in SEC play while conference foes have made 37.4 percent while shooting 25 more 3-pointers. | |||||||
02-02-21 | Buffalo v. Ball State +4.5 | 78-58 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
These teams are similar. Buffalo is 6-6. Ball State is 6-8. Buffalo has the better offense. Ball State is stronger defensively. The teams met back on Jan. 9 and Buffalo defeated the Cardinals, 86-59, as 5-point home favorites. Now the Bulls are nearly that high of a favorite on the road. I'm not buying it. Not only does Ball State have revenge motivation, but also is coming off its worst loss of the season, an embarrassing, 74-42, loss to Akron from Saturday. The Bulls haven't been playing well either losing three of their last four. Ball State has covered 11 of its last 15 home contests. The Cardinals also are 10-1 ATS when hosting a foe with a losing road record, which Buffalo has. | |||||||
02-01-21 | East Tennessee State v. Wofford -124 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
These have been the two best teams in the Southern Conference. That's likely the case again this season. East Tennessee State leads the conference with a 6-1 mark. Wofford is tied for second at 7-2. Both the Buccaneers and Terriers have been playing well. But it's not too much to ask Wofford to win at home. The Terriers have been dominant at home the past three seasons at Richardson Indoor Stadium going 31-7, including winning six of seven home contests this season. The Terriers average nearly five points more per game than East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers' offense has been up-and-down. Only twice in their last six games have the Buccaneers scored more than 71 points. Wofford has produced 72 or more points in seven of its last nine games. | |||||||
01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -130 | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Nevada beat UNLV in both meetings last season and the Wolfpack should defeat UNLV at home. This has always been a huge rivalry that the Wolfpack traditionally take more seriously than UNLV. Nevada is 6-2-1 ATS during the past nine meetings against UNLV. The Wolfpack have won three of its four Mountain West Conference home games this season, while UNLV has yet to win a conference road game. The Rebels last were on the road Jan. 9. Both teams are strong defensively, but I trust the Wolfpack's offense and 3-point shooting more. The Rebels still haven't found a consistent ballhandler having lost point guard Marvin Coleman for the season. In addition, the Rebels' leading scorer, Bryce Hamilton, has been hampered by an ankle injury. He averaged just eight points in the Rebels' last two games after averaging more than 20 points a game entering those last two contests. There's a chance Hamilton may even sit out against the Wolfpack. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Bradley +1 v. Indiana State | 57-60 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Bradley is in stop-the-pain mode on a four-game losing streak after losing to Valparaiso, 91-85 in overtime, on the road Friday. The Braves and Indiana State are middle-of-the-pack teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley, though, matches up well to the Sycamores. Opponents have made 55 percent of their field goals from two-point range against Indiana State. The Braves have a go-to inside scorer in big man Elijah Childs. By contrast, Bradley has one of the better two-point defenses in the country and Indiana State gets most of its points from inside the arc. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Illinois State +19 v. Drake | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm not sure what is more impressive about Drake. Is it the Bulldogs being 15-0, or having covered each of their 13 lined games? None of this is lost on the oddsmaker. They are starting to make bettors lay a tax on the Bulldogs if they want to back them. At least that's the way I see it because this line is several points too high in my view. Illinois State should be up for this matchup. The Redbirds were taken out of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March by Drake, losing 75-65. The Redbirds are just 5-10 this season, 2-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have the motivation and scoring to cover this inflated spread. Drake averages 82.5 points a game, which is 18th-best in the nation. Illinois State, though, puts up 74.3 points a game. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5 | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Minnesota can't win on the road in the Big Ten. The Gophers haven't just lost all four of their conference away games, but they've lost by wide margins. They lost by 27 points at Illinois, by 12 at Wisconsin, by 25 at Michigan and by 15 at Iowa. Purdue is 51-9 in its last 60 Big Ten home contests. The Boilermakers, though, are coming off a rare home defeat. That was to Michigan eight days ago in their last game. Not playing for more than a week has allowed the Boilermakers to regroup and adjust to the COVID-19 absence of Sasha Stefanovic, the top 3-point shooter in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are freshmen-oriented, but they are past the inexperience stage now. Zach Edey, Mason Gillis, Brandon Newman, Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton - all freshmen - are combining to produce nearly 40 percent of Purdue's scoring. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Air Force v. San Jose State UNDER 141.5 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
These two teams just met on Thursday. There were 117 points scored in San Jose State's 59-58 home win. It was the sixth time in their last seven games the Spartans went Under the total. So what's going to change in just two days? Not enough for the total to reach as high as the oddsmaker set it. These teams play slow, especially Air Force. The Falcons are the eight-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 59 points. San Jose State averages 66.2 points, which ranks 294th. The Spartans are likely to be missing their leading scorer, Richard Washington, again due to an undisclosed injury. He averages 20.7 points a game. The next highest scorer for San Jose State averages 11.7 points. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Steve Janus | $1,518 |
Calvin King | $1,240 |
Dave Price | $1,233 |
Michael Alexander | $1,030 |
Doc's Sports | $813 |
Dustin Hawkins | $747 |
R&R Totals | $578 |
Bobby Conn | $559 |
Nick Parsons | $505 |
Mikey Sports | $461 |