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Stephen Nover NCAA-B Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
02-23-21	Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan OVER 146		82-69	Win	100	13 h 0 m	Show
Bowling Green has its best scoring games on the road. The Falcons are averaging 83.3 points during their last six away contests. The Over is 22-10 in the Falcons' last 32 road games. The Falcons are facing an Eastern Michigan defense that allows 75 points per game and ranks in the bottom-20 in defensive field goal percentage. The Eagles got some of the rust off playing Kent State this past Saturday. Prior to that game, the Eagles last played on Jan. 26. The Over is 9-3 in Eastern Michigan's last 12 games. The Eagles are an excellent free throw shooting team. They should contribute their share of points as Bowling Green has permitted at least 76 points in five of its last seven games.
02-23-21	Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -125		69-53	Loss	-125	12 h 29 m	Show
I really like the job Mike Young is doing with Virginia Tech in his second season as the Hokies' head man. The Hokies are 9-1 at home and have knocked off four ranked teams, including eighth-ranked Virginia, 65-51, during their last home game back on Jan. 30. Virginia Tech holds big rebounding and defensive edges on Georgia Tech. The Hokies last played on Feb. 6. So that accounts for why I find this line opening so short. I don't believe that will matter, though.
02-23-21	Buffalo v. Northern Illinois OVER 143		102-74	Win	100	11 h 6 m	Show
Buffalo is one of the top scoring teams in the nation averaging 81.4 points a game. The Bulls have produced 75 or more points in six of their last seven games. Northern Illinois is 2-5 at home this season. The Over is 10-1 the last 11 times the Bulls have been on the road facing a foe with a sub .500 home record. The Huskies have a terrible defense ranking 288th. Their defensive rankings are even worse in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Huskies have surrendered 78 or more points in three of their last four games. Their offense, though, has perked up lately. They are averaging 70 points during their past two games.
02-23-21	Akron +2.5 v. Ohio		73-90	Loss	-110	11 h 24 m	Show
The Zips give up nearly four points fewer per game than Ohio. Akron destroyed the Bobcats, 90-70, when they met Dec. 22. It was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings Akron has beaten Ohio. That was two months ago. But circumstances are even more in favor of Akron now. The Zips are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. They trail Toledo by just one-half game for first place in the Mid-American Conference. Ohio last played three weeks ago. The Bobcats have been set back by a COVID-19 outbreak. This has cost them practice time not to mention important game experience. I don't see them being anywhere in peak form in their first game back. Ohio coach Jeff Boals even said this himself. The Zips have won five of their last six road games. The lone defeat during this span occurred to league-leader Toledo.
02-22-21	Houston Baptist v. Northwestern State OVER 154.5		80-86	Win	100	14 h 6 m	Show
Some of the worst defenses in the country reside in the Southland Conference. Houston Baptist and Northwest State can take its places at the head table because each school is a prime example of this. Houston Baptist ranks 339th in the country defensively yielding 81.1 points a game. The Huskies are capable offensively, though. They've reached 80 points in three of their last six games. The Huskies can hit their 3-point shots and are a good free throw shooting team. Northwest State permits 79.6 points a game, which ranks 333rd. The teams met early last month and Houston Baptist won, 99-93, in overtime. There were 168 points scored during regulation.
02-22-21	Eastern Kentucky -4 v. SE Missouri State		87-65	Win	100	10 h 21 m	Show
I want Eastern Kentucky in this rapid revenge spot and the line is reasonable enough to get involved. Eastern Kentucky went into this past Saturday's game against Southeast Missouri State 18-6 and riding a three-game win and covering streak while averaging 88.3 points during this span. The Redhawks entered the matchup 9-14 and 5 1/2-point underdogs. Final score: Southeast Missouri State 94, Eastern Kentucky 72. Huh? The Redhawks were on fire hitting 14 of 25 3-point shots, way above their 35 percent season average. The Redhawks average fewer than 69 points per game on the season. They are below average defensively and commit a lot of turnovers. Eastern Kentucky had an off-game. The Colonels were outshot 58.3 percent to 36.2 percent from the floor. The Colonels are the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation at 82.5. I see them bouncing back in a big way here. Southeast Missouri State is 7-19-1 ATS the past 27 times following a spread cover. Eastern Kentucky has covered 16 of its last 22 road games.
02-21-21	South Florida v. Temple +1		83-76	Loss	-109	9 h 19 m	Show
Since returning from a month-long COVID-19 hiatus, South Florida has gone 0-3 SU and ATS losing to Central Florida, Houston and Tulane by a combined 36 points. This is just the Bulls' fourth game since Jan. 9. They have averaged just 63 points in their last three games. The Bulls have failed to reach 70 points in each of their last seven games. They are a bottom-20 free throw shooting team. Temple gives up fewer than 70 points a game. This is the Owls' first home game since Feb. 4. I think they're a bargain in this price range.
02-21-21	Rider v. Quinnipiac -145		68-93	Win	100	3 h 55 m	Show
The teams just met yesterday. It was no contest. Quinnipiac won, 80-64. It was Rider's first game since Jan. 23. Maybe the Broncos got some rust off. But I don't see them staying that close to the Bobcats, who rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. The Bobcats have scored at least 67 points in each of their last seven games. Rider is now 1-5 in its last six games.
02-20-21	Pepperdine v. Santa Clara UNDER 143.5		82-86	Loss	-107	11 h 50 m	Show
Pepperdine is showing defensive improvement. The Waves are giving up five fewer points per game since conference play began. They have allowed just 65.3 points during their last three games. Santa Clara ranks 300th in scoring at 65.7. The Broncos face the nation's fourth-best 3-point defense, too. Santa Clara, though, ranks 11th in defensive field goal percentage. Pepperdine has averaged 68 points in its last two games. The Under has cashed in seven of Santa Clara's last eight home games for 88 percent. So I see this total being set too high.
02-20-21	Illinois v. Minnesota +5.5		94-63	Loss	-109	8 h 60 m	Show
No major conference team is more different at home compared to the road than Minnesota. The difference is insane. The Gophers are 0-8 away and 13-1 at home. Minnesota's average home victory is by around 13 points. Among the teams the Gophers have knocked off at home are Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Gophers have covered eight of their last nine games in Minnesota. This also is a circle-the-wagons game for the Gophers, who probably can't afford a loss here if they hope to make the NCAA Tournament. Minnesota also has revenge for a 92-65 road loss to Illinois. The Illini haven't been nearly as effective on the road. They've lost to Rutgers and needed overtime to post victories against Indiana and Nebraska, two games ago where they were 14-point favorites.
02-20-21	Mt. St. Mary's v. Fairleigh Dickinson -1		71-76	Win	100	9 h 54 m	Show
Fairleigh Dickinson has too much speed, quickness and backcourt edge for Mount St. Mary's. Fairleight Dickinson averages nearly 15 points more per game than Mount St. Mary's. The Knights can dent a strong Mount St. Mary's defense with excellent 3-point shooting. The Knights rank 19th in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.8 percent. Mount St. Mary's has been held under 68 points in eight of its last nine games.
02-20-21	New Hampshire +4 v. UMass Lowell		69-67	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering five of the last six times. I see that trend continuing here. New Hampshire gives up five fewer points per game than Lowell. The River Hawks have given up an average of 75.3 points in their last three games and are 8-18-1 ATS in their past 27 home games.
02-20-21	Loyola Maryland v. Lehigh +4.5		75-47	Loss	-110	8 h 5 m	Show
Lehigh hasn't played since Jan. 31. The Mountain Hawks are being penalized too severely on the line because of that. They would be above .500 if their six games against Bucknell and Navy were thrown out. Bucknell and Navy are a combined 15-6. Lehigh isn't in that class. But neither is Loyola Maryland. These are a pair of lower-tier Patriot League teams. Loyola Maryland is 2-7 on the season. The Greyhounds rank 287th defensively and 324th in 3-point defense. They have failed to cover their past four road games. The Greyhounds can't win close games either going 0-6 in games decided by four or fewer points.
02-20-21	Siena v. Niagara OVER 128		62-64	Loss	-110	8 h 46 m	Show
The combination of two below average offenses and long layoffs for each team have resulted in this very low total. Yes, neither team has played yet this month. But the oddsmaker has overcompensated for this in my view with too low of a total. The rust element also could factor defensively. Siena has three legitimate scoring threats led by Jaylen Pickett. The Saints have scored 74 or more points in 60 percent of their games. Niagara has averaged 73 points in its last three games. The Purple Eagles also have given up an average of 76.3 points in their past three games.
02-19-21	California Baptist +11 v. Grand Canyon	Top	61-71	Win	100	15 h 51 m	Show
I would be surprised to see California Baptist upset Grand Canyon straight-up. The Lancers are the 18th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 81.9 points a game. Grand Canyon is 12-3 compared to California Baptist's 10-7 mark. But the Antelopes' last eight victories have come against Bethesda and three of the worst teams in the Western Athletic Conference - Tarleton, Dixie State and New Mexico State. Oh, yes, the Antelopes haven't played since Jan. 30. So there's going to be a huge rust factor.
02-19-21	Cal-Riverside v. UC San Diego UNDER 136.5		81-75	Loss	-105	10 h 30 m	Show
Cal Riverside is a very strong defensive team ranking 10th in the nation surrendering just 61.1 points a game. San Diego is a weak team whose scoring statistics are skewed by a 101-point performance against Bethesda, a school that has no business playing Division I opponents. Even with that bogus bump in scoring, San Diego averages fewer than 70 points a game. San Diego ranks a respectable 104th defensively, though. San Diego has allowed just 68.3 points in its last three games. The Under is 15-7-1 in Riverside's last 23 games.
02-19-21	Southern Miss v. Florida International -2.5		85-72	Loss	-110	13 h 35 m	Show
Florida International isn't good. But at this price range, the Panthers are worth backing. Southern Mississippi has lost eight straight games going 1-6-1 ATS in those contests. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 62 points during this losing streak. Florida International has scored more than 62 points in 19 of its 23 games. The Panthers have the best player on the court in Antonio Daye Jr. He gives the Panthers a huge backcourt advantage in this matchup.
02-19-21	Monmouth v. Iona OVER 149		86-91	Win	100	12 h 58 m	Show
This will be Iona's fourth game since going through a long layoff due to COVID-19. The Gaels are one of the better scoring teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, but their defense has been bad during their return. Iona gave up an average of 72 points in two games against Manhattan, which is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country averaging 63.3 points. The Gaels also permitted 74 points to Quinnipiac, which is nearly seven points above the Bobcats' average. This doesn't bode well for Iona facing Monmouth, which averages 77.9 points and plays the fastest pace of any MAAC team. The Gaels should contribute their share of points towards the Over, too, as Mommouth ranks 241st in defensive scoring.
02-19-21	IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5		72-70	Loss	-113	12 h 14 m	Show
I consider this line short. Youngstown State is on a season-best five-game win streak. The Penguins are showing defensive improvement holding their last four opponents to 70 points or fewer. They are tough at home, too, going 8-3-1 ATS during their last 12 home contests. Youngstown State averages three points more per game than IUPUI and plays much better defense. The Jaguars rank 288th in scoring defense allowing 75.5 points a game. They are 327th in defensive field goal percentage. The Jaguars have failed to cover five of the last six times they've gone against an above .500 opponent.
02-18-21	St. Mary's v. Gonzaga OVER 143		65-87	Win	100	15 h 9 m	Show
It was a challenge for the oddsmaker to set a correct Over/Under on this matchup since St. Mary's is the 14th-best defensive team in the nation giving up 61.8 points while Gonzaga averages an NCAA Division I-best 93 points per game. In my view, the oddsmaker came up short on the correct total as I see a high-scoring game unlike the first meeting between the teams won by Gonzaga, 73-59, on Jan. 16 in California. St. Mary's coach Randy Bennett knows defense is not going to trump Gonzaga's high-scoring ways especially with this matchup being in Spokane, Wash. "You've got to generate some points against those guys because they're going to score," Bennett was quoted as saying about the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are going to have plenty of incentive, too, to keep their feet pressed to the gas. Family members are being allowed to attend Gonzaga home games for the first time this season. Gonzaga warmed up for this game by scoring 100 points in a 39-point victory at San Francisco last Saturday. St. Mary's had six games in a row postponed due to COVID-19 concerns. The Gaels got back into action this past Saturday losing, 60-58, at Pepperdine. So the Gaels should come in with plenty of energy and the rust off from having played a game.
02-18-21	Rutgers v. Michigan OVER 136		64-71	Loss	-114	16 h 41 m	Show
Michigan averages 78.9 points a game, 40th-best in the land. But there was some question just how potent the Wolverines could be when they played at Wisconsin this past Sunday against the defensive-minded Badgers. Michigan hadn't played since Jan. 22 because of COVID-19 issues. The Wolverines began slow, but they erased doubts scoring 40 points in the second half in a 67-59 victory. Now the Wolverines are home for the first time since Jan. 19 and the rust is off. I'm expecting big scoring production from Michigan. Rutgers' Big Ten defensive numbers look better than what they really are. The statistics are skewed because the Scarlet Knights held Northwestern to an average of 53 points in two games. Discounting Northwestern, these are the point totals the Scarlet Knights have yielded in their last five Big Ten road games - 79 to Iowa, 70 to Indiana, 75 to Penn State, 68 to Michigan State and 80 to Ohio State. So I project Michigan to score a lot of points here. Rutgers averages nearly 72 points a game so the Scarlet Knights can do their share in getting this total to go Over.
02-18-21	Loyola Marymount v. San Francisco OVER 135.5		68-63	Loss	-105	16 h 35 m	Show
Loyola Marymount enters this matchup off its highest three-game scoring stretch of the season. The Lions are averaging 77 points in their past three games. The Over has cashed in five of their last six games. Consequently, San Francisco is off its worst three-game defensive stretch of the season allowing 81 points a game. The Lions are 2-4 on the road this season. The Over is 15-5 the last 20 times the Dons have hosted an opponent with a losing away mark. The Dons also like to fire away from 3-point range. If they are hot look out. Loyola Marymount has below average 3-point defensive statistics.
02-18-21	Eastern Kentucky v. Tenn-Martin OVER 150.5		89-72	Win	100	15 h 20 m	Show
Eastern Kentucky is the 10th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. The Colonels play at break-neck speed and have proven to be a strong Over team in this type of situation. They are 19-7 to the Over during their past 26 road contests and the Over is 13-3-1 the past 17 times the Colonels have gone against a below .500 opponent. Tennessee-Martin is 7-13 and one of the lower teams in the Ohio Valley Conference. Lack of defense has been a major reason why the Skyhawks are so bad. They give up 77.3 points a game, which ranks 309th in the country. They also are 333rd in defensive field goal percentage. Eastern Kentucky should encounter little trouble putting up a high total. The Colonels, though, are well below average defensively giving up 73.7 points, which ranks 266th. Tennessee-Martin has averaged more than 70 points during its last three home games.
02-18-21	Iowa v. Wisconsin	Top	77-62	Loss	-108	14 h 60 m	Show
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times. Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss.
02-17-21	Mercer v. East Tennessee State OVER 137		71-64	Loss	-108	12 h 28 m	Show
There hasn't been a total this low on a Mercer game during the Bears' past dozen matchups. It's too low in my estimation. Mercer is the 39th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging more than 79 points per game. The Bears, however, give up 74.3 points a game, which ranks 272nd. They've permitted at least 70 points in 15 of their last 16 games. East Tennessee State averages 70 points a game.
02-17-21	Iona v. Quinnipiac +6.5		70-74	Win	100	12 h 41 m	Show
COVID-19 has been a definite handicapping factor this college basketball season. It certainly factors in this matchup and is a major reason why I like home 'dog Quinnipiac. Iona just returned from a COVID layoff of close to two months playing two home games against Manhattan this past Friday and Saturday. The Gaels were favored in both of those matchups and ended up splitting the two games. It was their first action since Dec. 23. No other school had gone longer between games this season. Now Iona plays a road game for the first time since Dec. 19. I don't think all of the rust is off yet, not to mention so many missed practices. This will be Quinnipiac's fifth game in 11 days. The Bobcats are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Quinnipiac is ranked 172nd defensively in the KenPom adjusted defensive rankings. The Bobcats have the seventh-best defensive field goal percentage in the nation. Iona is ranked 247th in the KenPom adjusted defensive ratings. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times in the series. So I'll take the points with the better defensive team in the better situation.
02-16-21	Xavier v. St. John's UNDER 156	Top	84-93	Loss	-110	16 h 40 m	Show
The two teams met back on Jan. 6. Xavier defeated St. John's, 69-61, at home with the total falling Under by 20 points. Now a little more than a month later we have the same two teams and the same total. So what's changed? St. John's has gotten better. Xavier is trying to get the rust off after a long layoff due to COVID protocols. If anything, these changes favor another Under. This is just Xavier's second game since Jan. 30 and third since Jan. 10. The Musketeers must rely on their defense - their strength - because it's going to take time to regain any offensive continuity. Xavier ranks 62nd in the nation in scoring defense and 44th in defensive field goal percentage. The Musketeers did allow 80 points to Connecticut in their first game back from COVID. Prior to that game, however, the Musketeers had given up an average of 63 points to their three previous opponents (Butler, Providence and St. John's). Xavier has had St. John's number, too, beating the Red Storm 12 consecutive times. St. John's is much more offensively-inclined. But the Red Storm can step up defensively. Just ask Villanova. The Red Storm held the Wildcats to a season-low 59 points when the teams met 13 days ago. Villanova is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78.6 points. St. John's should have its defensive intensity sky high in trying to end their long losing streak to Xavier.
02-16-21	St Francis NY v. Fairleigh Dickinson UNDER 161		83-75	Win	100	14 h 2 m	Show
These are two bad defenses. St. Francis gave up 80 points in its last game. Fairleigh Dickinson yielded 95 points in its past game. That may have influenced the oddsmaker because this total is set too high even given the low quality of the defenses. St. Francis has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during eight of its last 10 games. The Under is 9-3 in its last 12 road matchups. As for Fairleigh Dickinson, yes the Knights surrendered 95 points to Wagner in their last game. But in their previous three games, the Knights gave up an average of 69.3 points. That was against Wagner and two games versus Long Island, both of which have above average offenses.
02-16-21	Wagner +4.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's		61-39	Win	100	9 h 48 m	Show
I'm going to ride Wagner, which has won and covered its last five games. Mount St. Mary's is the stronger defensive team. But the Mountaineers don't have enough offense to cover this number. They rank 329th in the country in scoring at 63.5 points. The Mountaineers have been held under 68 points in six of their last seven games. Wagner has produced at least 74 points in eight of its past nine games.
02-15-21	Hampton v. Longwood OVER 135	Top	73-83	Win	100	14 h 8 m	Show
This Big South Conference matchup between a pair of below .500 teams, Hampton and Longwood, definitely is a below-the-radar game. I see it in a different way, though. I think it's an oddsmaker's mistake as far as setting the total too low. Hampton averages 69 points. The Pirates have scored 69 or more points in six of their last eight games. They commit the fewest turnovers per possession of any team in the Big South. The Pirates can take advantage of a Longwood defense that ranks 249th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Longwood is in action for just the third time since Jan. 30. The Lancers are getting back their scoring touch. They beat Gardner-Webb, 78-71, in their last game this past Friday. The 78 points tied the Lancers' highest-scoring performance during their past 15 games. The Lancers should have no trouble scoring in the 70's. Hampton gives up 73.6 points, which ranks 260th.
02-15-21	Eastern Kentucky -8.5 v. Tennessee Tech		83-72	Win	100	12 h 54 m	Show
Eastern Kentucky defeated hapless Tennessee Tech, 90-80, last month despite not playing well. The Colonels were outshot from the field by Tennessee Tech and made just 4 of 7 free throws. Tennessee Tech was 9 of 12 from the foul line. The Colonels are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. That's 18 points more per game than the Golden Eagles average. Eastern Kentucky is 16-5. Tennessee Tech is 3-19. The Golden Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times facing an above .500 foe. Eastern Kentucky has covered 14 of its last 19 road contests and is 13-5-2 ATS the past 20 times going against foes with a losing record.
02-15-21	Stephen F Austin -9.5 v. New Orleans		89-79	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
Stephen F. Austin is 12-3. New Orleans is 4-12. So that accounts for the Lumberjacks being a strong road favorite. It just doesn't account enough in my view. The Lumberjacks have won nine of their last 10 games, scoring 78 or more points in all but one of those games. New Orleans surrenders 76 points a game. The Privateers have been at their worst lately giving up an average of 82 points in their past three games, all losses. The Privateers are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times facing an opponent with a winning record.
02-14-21	Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech UNDER 142.5		65-71	Win	100	8 h 14 m	Show
I'm expecting Pittsburgh to tighten its defense against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 63.8 points in their last six games if you toss out an 82-point performance against Notre Dame. So their current numbers are a bit misleading. Georgia Tech has held eight of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 69 points. The teams met twice last season and there were a combined 137 and 130 points scored in those games.
02-13-21	UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe	Top	88-72	Win	100	14 h 38 m	Show
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points.
02-13-21	TCU v. Texas UNDER 142		55-70	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
These two Big 12 Conference teams met twice last season. There were 126 points and 123 points, respectively, scored in those two matchups. I'm expecting the same kind of defensive intensity this time around, too. TCU averages under 70 points and is a terrible free throw shooting team. Texas gives up fewer than 69 points. The Longhorns may catch a break if Mike Miles, TCU's second-leading scorer at 14.8 points, has to miss a second straight game due to illness.
02-13-21	Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 139.5		59-78	Win	100	8 h 50 m	Show
Perhaps the oddsmaker is taking just the final score in Indiana's last three games into account because I find this total to be too high. The Hoosiers have played two overtime games during their last three matchups. If you go by regulation, the Hooisers are holding their last three foes to 62.3 points a game. Ohio State, like Indiana, gives up an average of 68 points per game. The Buckeyes have held four of their last six opponents to 67 points or fewer.
02-12-21	Detroit v. Cleveland State OVER 137.5	Top	89-83	Win	100	16 h 32 m	Show
This is an excellent Horizon League matchup. Detroit has won seven of its last eight games, while Cleveland State leads the Horizon League. I'm expecting far more offense than the oddsmaker is projecting. Detroit averages 75.8 points. That number goes up to 80.5 points if you take just the last six games. The Titans win with offense. They are a bad defensive team. The Titans also have a strong history of going Over in away games. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans' last 26 road matchups. Cleveland State is averaging 76.8 points in its last four games. The Vikings face a Detroit defense that ranks 277th in points allowed at 74.7, is 289th in defensive field goal percentage and 326th in 3-point defense. Opponents have dented the Titans' defense for 72 or more points in nine of the past 12 games. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last 10 home games, too.
02-12-21	Bellarmine v. North Alabama +6		66-64	Win	100	8 h 28 m	Show
This is an important Atlantic Sun Conference game especially for North Alabama. If the Lions can pull the outright upset they would trail Bellarmine by just one game in the loss column for the conference lead. North Alabama only has been this big of a 'dog once this season and that was back in December against Indiana. Bellarmine has failed to cover in seven of the past eight instances when meeting an above .500 opponent.
02-12-21	UMass Lowell v. Albany UNDER 143		79-71	Loss	-112	8 h 27 m	Show
These are two below average offenses who I don't see reaching 70 points. UMass-Lowell averages 68.4 points and is a bad free throw shooting team. The River Hawks have been held under 70 points in more than half of their games. Albany is better defensively than on offense where it averages 68.4 points. The Great Danes have held 60 percent of their foes to under 71 points.
02-12-21	Wisc-Milwaukee +17.5 v. Wright State		81-92	Win	100	8 h 24 m	Show
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off a pair of home upset losses to hot Northern Kentucky, which has now won six in a row. That probably has contributed to this line being over inflated in my view. UWM was 2-1 in its three previous games, including a road upset overtime win against Cleveland State, the Horizon League leader. If the Panthers can upset Cleveland State they should be able to keep within single digits of Wright State. It was a four-point game when the teams last met on Jan. 31, 2020 with Wright State prevailing, 65-61.
02-12-21	Middle Tennessee +17 v. Marshall		79-107	Loss	-110	7 h 23 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for 5-11 Middle Tennessee State. But the Blue Raiders should not be this large of an underdog. Middle Tennessee State lacks Marshall's firepower, but gives up five fewer points per game than the Thundering Herd. The Blue Raiders have been particularly strong in defending 3-point shots ranking 12th in the nation. The Blue Raiders enter this matchup with a little momentum and confidence, too, coming off consecutive victories against Charlotte. This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cover the past four times.
02-11-21	Texas State v. Texas-Arlington +1.5		63-56	Loss	-109	15 h 37 m	Show
Texas-Arlington opened a slight underdog. The 'dog has covered each of the last seven times in this series. But Arlington shouldn't be a home 'dog. The Mavericks would be riding a five-game win streak if not for an overtime loss to Arkansas State. The Mavericks average eight more points per game than Texas State and give up fewer than 70 points per game. The Bobcats average only 66.8 points on the season. They have averaged just 63 points in regulation during their last four games.
02-11-21	Eastern Washington -2.5 v. Montana State		93-77	Win	100	15 h 36 m	Show
I'm perplexed how short this line is because I rate Eastern Washington much higher than Montana State. The Eagles are on a five-game win streak and have covered 11 of their last 15 away games. Montana State is off a pair of road losses to Weber State in games that weren't close. The Bobcats are 1-5 ATS the past six times when going against an above .500 opponent.
02-11-21	Weber State v. Montana +1		67-80	Win	100	15 h 35 m	Show
Montana is 7-5 in its last 12 games. But the Grizzlies' record is deceiving. They have lost a number of close games, including a six-point road loss to Arizona. The Grizzlies have a strong defense ranking 38th in the nation giving up 63.6 points per game. They also rate 25th in 3-point defense. That's a huge factor because Weber State is a strong perimeter shooting team. The Wildcats surrender six more points per game than Montana. This is not a good matchup for Weber State.
02-11-21	Long Island +4 v. Mt. St. Mary's		60-66	Loss	-110	13 h 17 m	Show
This is only the second time all season Long Island is an underdog. The Shark beat Wagner, 77-66, as 1-point road 'dogs on Jan. 14. I don't think they should be an underdog in this game to Mount St. Mary's. Mount St. Mary's is 5-5 in its last 10 games, losing two of its last three games while favored against Sacred Heart and Central Connecticut State.
02-11-21	Winthrop -3.5 v. Radford		80-64	Win	100	13 h 35 m	Show
There's a huge class difference here that's not fully incorporated into the line. Winthrop had opened with 16 consecutive victories until losing, 57-55, as 12 1/2-point home favorites against UNC-Asheville in its last game. That was two weeks ago. The Eagles haven't played since. So they are more than ready to put that disturbing upset loss behind them. The Eagles are the class of the Big South Conference. Radford is a surprising 13-7, in second-place behind Winthrop in the league standings despite losing all of its top scorers from last season. None of Radford's players average double figures in scoring. Winthrop ranks 22nd in the nation in scoring at 81.3 points and has the conference's likely MVP in Chandler Vaudrin. Winthrop has proven itself in this type of situation going 13-4 ATS versus above .500 opponents and covering 17 of its past 24 road contests.
02-11-21	Fairleigh Dickinson v. Wagner OVER 142.5		72-76	Win	100	12 h 11 m	Show
Oddsmakers just give a quick glance to small conference matchups like this one before quickly throwing out a total based on season numbers. But on closer inspection - considering current form - this Over/Under has been set too low. Fairleigh Dickinson averages 75 points on the season. That number goes up to 82.1 points in regulation if you look at the Knights' last six games. Wagner ranks 263rd in the nation defensively yielding nearly 74 points a game. Wagner has scored at least 74 points in six of its last seven games. Fairleigh Dickinson has one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 326th allowing 78.9 points.
02-10-21	Marquette v. Villanova OVER 139.5	Top	64-96	Win	100	16 h 23 m	Show
Marquette hosted Villanova back on Dec. 23. The results weren't pretty for the Golden Eagles. Villanova beat them, 85-68. That's a combined 153 points. The Wildcats didn't play again until Jan. 19 because of COVID-19 issues. This is their sixth game since their earlier meeting against Marquette. The Wildcats just defeated Georgetown, 84-74, at home this past Sunday. I believe the Wildcats are hitting their stride. They have balanced scoring with five players averaging in double figures. Marquette doesn't get many takeaways and has been hurt by giving up second-chance points. I believe Villanova has a high-scoring game just like in the first meeting. The Golden Eagles should hold up their end on the scoring ledger. They are averaging 70.3 points per game during their last three games. Villanova has permitted at least 68 points in six of its past seven games.
02-10-21	Southern Illinois v. Missouri State OVER 139.5		53-65	Loss	-110	14 h 11 m	Show
The oddsmaker is giving too much credence to the Missouri Valley Conference being a defensive league with this low of a total on this matchup. Southern Illinois has surrendered at least 68 points in nine straight games. The Salukis rank 277th in defensive field goal percentage. They rank 10th in the MVC in points per possession and are last in the conference in 3-point defensive percentage. Missouri State averages 74.3 points. The Bears are fourth in the conference in points per possession and have the top free throw percentage in the league at 76.5 percent. They also rate second in the conference in two-point range.
02-10-21	Old Dominion v. Charlotte -1.5		78-76	Loss	-110	13 h 40 m	Show
I see good value in backing UNC Charlotte at home against Old Dominion even if the Monarchs get back guards Malik Curry and A.J. Oliver as expected. Curry is the Monarchs' leading scorer at 16.5 points. Charlotte has too much defense for Old Dominion and the Monarchs don't have enough offense to counter. The Monarchs rank 313th in the nation in scoring. They also are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests. The 49ers hold foes to 64.3 points a game, which ranks 47th. It's also six points fewer per game than Old Dominion gives up. Charlotte has won its last three home games, but is coming off a pair of road losses to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS following a straight-up defeat.
02-09-21	St. John's v. Butler OVER 138		73-76	Win	100	8 h 38 m	Show
I get that Butler is bad offensively, but I still think this total has been set too low. St. John's has won six in a row, reaching at least 70 points in each of those victories. Only once during this span have the Red Storm scored fewer than 74 points. Butler's defense is down this season. The Bulldogs rank 292nd in defensive field goal percentage. St. John's ranks 37th in scoring at 79.7 points. Look for Butler's offense to pick up now that transfer guard Bo Hodges is getting more comfortable. He became eligible this month and is averaging double figures giving the Bulldogs a much needed added scoring threat.
02-09-21	Arkansas v. Kentucky OVER 142		81-80	Win	100	6 h 41 m	Show
Kentucky could be the most disappointing team in the country. But the Wildcats have a history of coming on during the second half of the season. They have too many good athletes to have such a low-scoring average. There are signs the Wildcats could be ready to break loose. Kentucky scored 71 points in an 11-point home loss to Tennessee this past Saturday. The Volunteers rank sixth in the country giving up 59.6 points a game. Arkansas is not close to being in Tennessee's defensive class. The Razorbacks allow 69.4 points a game. Arkansas wins with its offense. The Razorbacks rank 12th in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points. They should have plenty of energy, too, having last played a week ago after last Saturday's game against Texas A&M was postponed.
02-09-21	Kent State v. Bowling Green		71-67	Loss	-110	6 h 39 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season for Bowling Green, who some thought would win the MAC title this season. I see the Falcons prevailing, though, in this quick revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode. Kent State defeated the Falcons, 96-91, at home on Jan. 27. The Golden Flashes shot 49 percent from the floor and made 17 of 21 free throws for 81 percent. Bowling Green shot 46 percent from the field and made 11 of 15 free throws. The Falcons have a strong senior group led by Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden. It's not too much to ask of the Falcons to just win the game.
02-08-21	Jackson State v. Southern UNDER 133		57-53	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
These teams are better defensively than offensively. Jackson State has a top-100 defense and is 36-14-1 to the Under the past 51 times versus opponents with a win percentage below .400. The Tigers have held their last three foes to an average of 60.3 points. Southern gave up 72 points to Grambling two days ago in its last game. However, the Jaguars had also yielded only 60.3 points per game during their six games prior to the Grambling game.
02-08-21	Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5	Top	61-79	Win	100	16 h 26 m	Show
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska.
02-08-21	Gardner-Webb v. USC Upstate UNDER 143.5		69-77	Loss	-110	13 h 4 m	Show
Kudos to Gardner-Webb for scoring 91 points in its last game, a 91-64 victory against Presbyterian from this past Friday. But I'm not going to overreact to that performance as prior to that Gardnder-Webb averaged just 61 points during its previous three games. Now Gardner-Webb draws South Carolina Upstate. The Spartans are bad on defense. But they also are horrible on offense averaging fewer than 67 points a game. They have failed to break the 69-point barrier in eight of their last 10 games. The Under has cashed in seven of the Spartans' last 10 games.
02-08-21	Quinnipiac v. Fairfield UNDER 133.5		70-77	Loss	-100	12 h 44 m	Show
These two Metro Atlantic Athletic foes just met Sunday and Quinnipiac won, 78-63. That total was lined at 129 1/2. Now we have a higher total, but the same two teams. Quinnipiac shot 57 percent from the floor in Sunday's game. That was a fluke for the Bobcats. Even with that performance factored in, they still rank 289th in scoring at 66.8 points a game and 293rd in field goal percentage at 41.3 percent. Fairfield is even worse. The Stags rank 341st in scoring at 60.4 points and are 330th in field goal percentage at 39.3 percent. Their game yesterday was their first since Jan. 16 because of COVID issues. The Stags figure to struggle again offensively not just because of rust, but also because Quinnipiac ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage.
02-07-21	Temple v. Wichita State UNDER 141.5		67-70	Win	100	12 h 42 m	Show
Temple averages less than 64 points. That average shrinks to 62.7 if you take the Owls' last four games. The Owls barely manage to average 60 points when on the road. Wichita State is a solid defensive team giving up 69 points per game. The Shockers have held their past six home opponents to 64 points per game. The Shockers should maintain their defensive intensity throughout the game even if the score becomes lopsided after Tulane came back from 21 points down to cut the Shockers' lead to six points during the final minute in Wichita State's last game, a 75-67 victory this past Wednesday. Temple's strength is its defense. The Owls have held five of their last six foes to fewer than 69 points a game. That's in line with their season average of holding opponents to 68.5 points per game.
02-06-21	Northwestern v. Purdue -7		70-75	Loss	-110	13 h 22 m	Show
Purdue should be a double-digit favorite at home against Northwestern, which has lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in those games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the past seven times facing an above .500 foe. The Boilermakers are anxious to put a 61-60 rough loss to Maryland on Tuesday behind them. They hold a big edge inside with Trevion Williams and are expected to get back their second-leading scorer, Sasha Stefanovic. He has missed the last three games due to COVID-19 protocols. He's one of the top 3-point shooters in the Big Ten.
02-06-21	Chattanooga v. East Tennessee State UNDER 138.5		67-65	Win	100	11 h 27 m	Show
UT-Chattanooga has stepped up defensively holding their last three foes to a respectable 68.3 points a game. East Tennessee State has a top-70 defense allowing fewer than 66 points per game. The Mocs haven't played too many defenses of this caliber. The Buccaneers' offensive numbers are inflated because of a recent 112-84 blowout victory against The Citadel. This is a Southern League matchup so the oddsmaker isn't doing a deep dive into this game. He's just set a total based on season statistics. In this case, the number is set too high.
02-06-21	Evansville +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago		55-68	Win	100	10 h 17 m	Show
Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game. Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games.
02-06-21	NC State -3.5 v. Boston College		81-65	Win	100	10 h 46 m	Show
North Carolina State is the superior team. The Wolfpack are 7-7 and 3-6 in the ACC while Boston College is 3-10 and 1-6 in the ACC. The point spread with NC State a road favorite accounts for that. But what it doesn't fully account for is Boston College's situation. The Eagles haven't played in three weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Not only are they rusty, but their rotation could be unsettled. Walk-ons could draw important minutes. NC State has kept playing. The Wolfpack gave 14th-ranked Virginia a scare in their last game before losing, 64-47, this past Wednesday.
02-05-21	California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State	Top	85-75	Win	100	17 h 17 m	Show
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games.
02-05-21	Oral Roberts +5 v. North Dakota State		54-61	Loss	-109	16 h 10 m	Show
There are four decent teams in the Summit League. These are two of them. North Dakota State is 10-8. Oral Roberts is 9-7. Oral Roberts averages 81.5 points, which ranks 24th in the nation. The Golden Eagles average 14 more points per game than North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles also have covered six of their last eight road games. They are 4-0 during their past four away contests averaging 90 points in those games. That's too much firepower for North Dakota State.
02-05-21	South Dakota v. South Dakota State OVER 150		64-56	Loss	-110	16 h 39 m	Show
This is a battle of the two best teams in the Summit League. These teams win with offense. South Dakota ranks 114th in scoring at nearly 75 points a game. The Coyotes rank 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and are an excellent free throw shooting team. South Dakota State averages 80.5 points per game. The Jackrabbits rank third in 3-point percentage and are 22nd in field goal percentage. They, too, are good at the free throw line. So look for offense - not defense - in this matchup. That was the case back on Dec. 12 when the teams met at a neutral site. South Dakota won, 91-78, for a combined 169 points. South Dakota State was missing its second-leading scorer, Doug Wilson, for that game. Wilson averages 15.8 points. South Dakota is averaging 90.6 points in its last three games, all of which have gone Over. The Jackrabbits are averaging 89 points in their last five games. The Over has cashed in seven of their last eight lined games.
02-04-21	Eastern Washington -15 v. Idaho		89-75	Loss	-107	17 h 32 m	Show
Eastern Washington is among the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho isn't just the worst team in the Big Sky, but one of the worst in all of college basketball with an 0-13 record. The Eagles should have no problem exploiting a porous Idaho defense that ranks 314th. The Vandals have failed to cover in their last five games. They've lost those games by an average of 18.8 points.
02-04-21	Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5	Top	74-72	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points.
02-04-21	Belmont v. Eastern Illinois +14		89-61	Loss	-110	16 h 6 m	Show
Belmont definitely is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference this season. But don't be shocked if Eastern Illinois stays within single digits. The teams met on Jan. 21 and Belmont won, 79-66, as 11 1/2-point home favorites. It was just a two-point game at halftime. Now the Bruins are larger favorites on the road. I don't see it. Eastern Illinois has some confidence after halting an eight-game losing streak with an upset road victory against SIU Edwardsville this past Tuesday. Belmont barely escaped Murray State this past Saturday, winning 72-71.
02-04-21	USC Upstate +9.5 v. Radford		61-63	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
I don't think Radford is justified being this high of a favorite. South Carolina Upstate has improved since an 0-9 start going 3-2 in its past five games. Radford averages less than two more points per game than South Carolina Upstate. Both teams are off long layoffs. South Carolina Upstate hasn't played since Jan. 15, while Radford was last in action on Jan. 25. So that puts some randomness into this matchup, which is good for the underdog.
02-04-21	Wagner v. St Francis NY -2		74-67	Loss	-112	15 h 31 m	Show
It doesn't matter if it's a major conference, or the Northeast Conference. When a line is off it's off. I believe the line in this Northeast Conference matchup is wrong. St. Francis-Brooklyn should be favored by much more. Wagner is 2-5. The Seahawks haven't played since Jan. 15 because of COVID-19 protocols. They have failed to cover in 21 of their last 27 road games, including going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home this season. St. Francis-Brooklyn averages 76.8 points. The Terriers outscore Wagner by nearly eight points a game. St. Francis is 4-4 on the season. The Terriers are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times hosting foes with a losing road record. The Terriers are not strong defensively. But they are too explosive for Wagner and are playing at home against a bad road team. Wagner is led in scoring by Elijah Ford, who averages 20.8 points. Ford, though, hasn't played since Dec. 22 due to a hand injury. If he returns to the lineup, he figures to be rusty.
02-03-21	SMU v. Tulsa +2.5		65-63	Win	100	18 h 39 m	Show
These teams are close to even. Tulsa has the better American Athletic Conference record, gives up three fewer points per game than SMU and is home. So I'm not buying SMU as road chalk. The Mustangs are off a demoralizing 70-48 road loss to Houston this past Sunday. SMU is 2-8-1 in its last 11 road contests and 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall games. Tulsa is deserving of more respect. The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in the country defensively. They have pulled a number of conference upsets, including beating Houston and Memphis twice.
02-03-21	East Tennessee State v. Mercer -125		70-64	Loss	-125	15 h 18 m	Show
The combination of Mercer's high scoring and 6-foot-11 Maciej Bender's low-post defensive presence and shot blocking ability should provide Mercer with a comfortable victory. The Bears average 78 points per game, which is eight more points per contest than East Tennessee State averages. Mercer has balanced scoring led by Ross Cummings, who is one of the most accurate perimeter shooters in the country. Cummings, who averages 15.7 points, shoots 51.5 percent from the floor and has made 44.8 percent of his 3-point attempts.
02-03-21	Fordham v. Massachusetts -13	Top	54-60	Loss	-105	15 h 13 m	Show
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell. The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times. So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points.
02-02-21	USC -2 v. Stanford	Top	72-66	Win	100	18 h 8 m	Show
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders. Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season. A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups.
02-02-21	Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss		50-52	Loss	-110	16 h 24 m	Show
The buy sign is back on Tennessee after the Volunteers rolled past then 18th-ranked Kansas, 80-61, as 3-point favorites this past Saturday. A key takeaway from that game was not only restored Tennessee confidence - the Vols were 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in their three previous games - but that the Vols outrebounded the Jayhawks, 38-23, while giving up zero second-chance points. Mississippi doesn't shoot well. The Rebels rely on rebounding and second-chance points. That's going to prove difficult against the Volunteers, who have the sixth-stingiest defense in the nation giving up fewer than 60 points per game. Ole Miss isn't playing well. The Rebels have dropped two in a row, including a 71-61 road loss to Georgia this past Saturday. The Rebels have made just 25.9 percent of their 3-point shots in SEC play while conference foes have made 37.4 percent while shooting 25 more 3-pointers.
02-02-21	Buffalo v. Ball State +4.5		78-58	Loss	-107	11 h 33 m	Show
These teams are similar. Buffalo is 6-6. Ball State is 6-8. Buffalo has the better offense. Ball State is stronger defensively. The teams met back on Jan. 9 and Buffalo defeated the Cardinals, 86-59, as 5-point home favorites. Now the Bulls are nearly that high of a favorite on the road. I'm not buying it. Not only does Ball State have revenge motivation, but also is coming off its worst loss of the season, an embarrassing, 74-42, loss to Akron from Saturday. The Bulls haven't been playing well either losing three of their last four. Ball State has covered 11 of its last 15 home contests. The Cardinals also are 10-1 ATS when hosting a foe with a losing road record, which Buffalo has.
02-01-21	East Tennessee State v. Wofford -124		62-67	Win	100	10 h 5 m	Show
These have been the two best teams in the Southern Conference. That's likely the case again this season. East Tennessee State leads the conference with a 6-1 mark. Wofford is tied for second at 7-2. Both the Buccaneers and Terriers have been playing well. But it's not too much to ask Wofford to win at home. The Terriers have been dominant at home the past three seasons at Richardson Indoor Stadium going 31-7, including winning six of seven home contests this season. The Terriers average nearly five points more per game than East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers' offense has been up-and-down. Only twice in their last six games have the Buccaneers scored more than 71 points. Wofford has produced 72 or more points in seven of its last nine games.
01-31-21	UNLV v. Nevada -130		60-89	Win	100	13 h 26 m	Show
Nevada beat UNLV in both meetings last season and the Wolfpack should defeat UNLV at home. This has always been a huge rivalry that the Wolfpack traditionally take more seriously than UNLV. Nevada is 6-2-1 ATS during the past nine meetings against UNLV. The Wolfpack have won three of its four Mountain West Conference home games this season, while UNLV has yet to win a conference road game. The Rebels last were on the road Jan. 9. Both teams are strong defensively, but I trust the Wolfpack's offense and 3-point shooting more. The Rebels still haven't found a consistent ballhandler having lost point guard Marvin Coleman for the season. In addition, the Rebels' leading scorer, Bryce Hamilton, has been hampered by an ankle injury. He averaged just eight points in the Rebels' last two games after averaging more than 20 points a game entering those last two contests. There's a chance Hamilton may even sit out against the Wolfpack.
01-31-21	Bradley +1 v. Indiana State		57-60	Loss	-112	7 h 29 m	Show
Bradley is in stop-the-pain mode on a four-game losing streak after losing to Valparaiso, 91-85 in overtime, on the road Friday. The Braves and Indiana State are middle-of-the-pack teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley, though, matches up well to the Sycamores. Opponents have made 55 percent of their field goals from two-point range against Indiana State. The Braves have a go-to inside scorer in big man Elijah Childs. By contrast, Bradley has one of the better two-point defenses in the country and Indiana State gets most of its points from inside the arc.
01-31-21	Illinois State +19 v. Drake		76-78	Win	100	6 h 12 m	Show
I'm not sure what is more impressive about Drake. Is it the Bulldogs being 15-0, or having covered each of their 13 lined games? None of this is lost on the oddsmaker. They are starting to make bettors lay a tax on the Bulldogs if they want to back them. At least that's the way I see it because this line is several points too high in my view. Illinois State should be up for this matchup. The Redbirds were taken out of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March by Drake, losing 75-65. The Redbirds are just 5-10 this season, 2-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have the motivation and scoring to cover this inflated spread. Drake averages 82.5 points a game, which is 18th-best in the nation. Illinois State, though, puts up 74.3 points a game.
01-30-21	Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5		62-81	Win	100	13 h 40 m	Show
Minnesota can't win on the road in the Big Ten. The Gophers haven't just lost all four of their conference away games, but they've lost by wide margins. They lost by 27 points at Illinois, by 12 at Wisconsin, by 25 at Michigan and by 15 at Iowa. Purdue is 51-9 in its last 60 Big Ten home contests. The Boilermakers, though, are coming off a rare home defeat. That was to Michigan eight days ago in their last game. Not playing for more than a week has allowed the Boilermakers to regroup and adjust to the COVID-19 absence of Sasha Stefanovic, the top 3-point shooter in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are freshmen-oriented, but they are past the inexperience stage now. Zach Edey, Mason Gillis, Brandon Newman, Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton - all freshmen - are combining to produce nearly 40 percent of Purdue's scoring.
01-30-21	Air Force v. San Jose State UNDER 141.5		62-75	Win	100	11 h 4 m	Show
These two teams just met on Thursday. There were 117 points scored in San Jose State's 59-58 home win. It was the sixth time in their last seven games the Spartans went Under the total. So what's going to change in just two days? Not enough for the total to reach as high as the oddsmaker set it. These teams play slow, especially Air Force. The Falcons are the eight-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 59 points. San Jose State averages 66.2 points, which ranks 294th. The Spartans are likely to be missing their leading scorer, Richard Washington, again due to an undisclosed injury. He averages 20.7 points a game. The next highest scorer for San Jose State averages 11.7 points.
01-30-21	McNeese State +5 v. Lamar		56-64	Loss	-110	11 h 35 m	Show
The points are a bonus as I believe McNeese is the superior team. Certainly the Cowboys have the better overall record being 7-9 while Lamar is 3-11. There is no doubt who has the better offense. It's not Lamar. The Cardinals average 63.6 points per game, which ranks 320th. McNeese State is the eighth-highest scoring team in the nation at 84.9 points a game. Lamar surrenders 76.9 points per contest. The Cardinals are 0-10 when they permit 66 or more points. McNeese State should have no trouble exceeding that number.
01-30-21	Toledo v. Bowling Green +4		84-66	Loss	-110	10 h 7 m	Show
Bowling Green is back home in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Toledo is playing extremely well with wins in 11 of its last 12 games. But the Falcons play the Rockets tough. They've beaten them the past two times. The Falcons have the best player on the court in Justin Turner. He averages 20.5 points a game. Few teams average more points per game than Toledo. The Rockets put up 80.4 points. Bowling Green matches that also scoring 80.4 points and the Falcons give up an average of nearly five fewer points per game than the Rockets.
01-30-21	SIU-Edwardsville v. Tenn-Martin +4		76-60	Loss	-109	10 h 6 m	Show
When it comes to smaller conferences such as the Ohio Valley, the oddsmaker makes his line strictly by season power rankings. That sets up opportunities like this because Tennessee-Martin is showing life at home after losing nine straight games. The Skyhawks are 2-0 so far in their six-game homestand. Tennessee-Martin defeated Southeast Missouri State, 69-66, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs and then followed that up with an impressive, 51-41, victory against Eastern Illinois as 8-point home 'dogs this past Thursday. The Skyhawks had never held a foe to that low of a total before. SIU Edwardsville had a 34-day layoff due to COVID-19 issues. This is just the Cougars' fifth game since Dec. 18. They may not be fully mentally ready after suffering a heartbreaking, 64-62, loss to Southeast Missouri State this past Thursday. The Cougars blew a 13-point second half lead. The only time they trailed in the game was the final score. The Skyhawks have won eight of their last 10 against the Cougars.
01-30-21	Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois +2.5		74-62	Loss	-110	9 h 10 m	Show
Southern Illinois is in a tailspin having lost five in a row. But the Salukis should defeat fellow Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Northern Iowa at home. Note that the Salukis' last four losses have come to Drake and Indiana State. Drake is 15-0 and Indiana State is the fourth-best team in the MVC. Northern Iowa is far from that class. The Panthers are 4-10 on the season. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games and are 0-6 ATS during their past six away matchups. Southern Illinois has covered 13 of their last 18 home games. The Salukis outscore Northern Iowa on the season and also give up fewer points per game.
01-29-21	CS-Fullerton +10.5 v. CS Bakersfield		90-84	Win	100	18 h 46 m	Show
I see Fullerton having enough offense to hang with Bakersfield in this Big West Conference matchup. The Titans are averaging 75.4 points per game, which is five points more than Bakersfield averages. The Roadrunners have been a good fade in this type of situation. They are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games and 2-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 foes.
01-29-21	Iowa +2 v. Illinois		75-80	Loss	-109	16 h 33 m	Show
Iowa is the better team in my view and Illinois' home-court advantage doesn't make up for that. The Hawkeyes may have the best big man in the country, too, in 6-foot-11 Luka Garza. He's leading the Big Ten in scoring at 26.9 points while connecting on 61 percent of his shots from the floor. Illinois has an excellent big man, Kofi Cockburn. But Garza trumps him. The Hawkeyes enter this matchup well-rested and highly motivated having not played for eight days since an 81-69 home loss to Indiana. Iowa was a 10-point favorite in that game. Even with that defeat, the Hawkeyes still have covered 15 of their last 21 games.
01-29-21	Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 136.5		63-64	Win	100	14 h 40 m	Show
Florida Gulf Coast is averaging only 64.5 points in its last four games. Stetson is giving up just 66.2 points during its last five games. The Hatters are not an up-tempo team, which is fine with Florida Gulf Coast. Neither offense is dynamic. Stetson ranks 288th in scoring averaging 66.5 points a game, while the Eagles rank 183rd in scoring at 71.9 points. They've held their last four foes to an aveage of 64.5 points. Given the current defensive form of both teams - and lack of tempo and big scoring - look for this one to go Under the total.
01-29-21	Monmouth -3.5 v. Niagara		77-67	Win	100	12 h 25 m	Show
Monmouth is on a 7-2-1 ATS run. The Hawks have won and covered their last four games. Power rating-wise, this game opened too short in my view. The Hawks have given up 64 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Niagara hasn't been playing as well losing three of its last four games while failing to cover in three of its past four games. Monmouth has a far stronger offense, outscoring Niagara by an average of 16 points per game. So I'm going to go ahead and lay what I believe is a value number.
01-28-21	California v. Arizona State -7.5		68-72	Loss	-110	18 h 26 m	Show
I'm seeing a buy sign on Arizona State in this spot as the Sun Devils hopefully are past their COVID-19 issues that have pushed their season off track. Back in early December, the Sun Devils traveled to Berkley, Calif., and defeated California, 70-62, as 6 1/2-point favorites. ASU's star guard Remy Martin scored 22 points in that game. Since that matchup, however, the Sun Devils had four postponements and one cancellation due to the pandemic. They are just rounding into shape. Arizona State threw a scare into 12-3 Arizona last Thursday losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer. This is a massive circle-the-wagons game for the Sun Devils, who have dropped six in a row. California has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 road contests. I see this as the spot where Arizona State gets right.
01-28-21	Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5		85-66	Loss	-110	16 h 19 m	Show
I'm going to step in against Morehead State, which has won seven in a row. I don't trust the Eagles' offense on the road. Morehead State ranks 295th in scoring at 65.6 points a game. Jacksonville State averages nine points more per game than Morehead State. The Gamecocks also have been playing well defeating Murray State and Austin Peay in their last two games. Both of those were road contests and the Gamecocks were underdogs. The Gamecocks are averaging 84 points during their last three games. The teams met on Jan. 9 and Morehead State escaped with a 56-55 win as a 3-point home 'dog. Jacksonville State shot just 33 percent from the floor in that game while missing 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. Morehead State shot 40 percent from the floor in its narrow win. So the Gamecocks have revenge as added incentive.
01-27-21	Utah State -6 v. UNLV	Top	83-74	Win	100	17 h 2 m	Show
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge. UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State. The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers. Expect Utah State to play much better.
01-25-21	Arizona State v. Arizona -4.5		67-80	Win	100	12 h 7 m	Show
Arizona State has been a major disappointment in the Pac-12 with a 1-4 league mark and 4-7 overall record. Much of this can be blamed on COVID-19. The pandemic has played havoc with the Sun Devils' schedule causing four postponements and one cancellation. The Sun Devils, though, were up for this past Thursday's game against in-state and conference rival Arizona. They led the Wildcats by six points with 3:40 left before losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer as 2 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the scene shifts to Tucson where Arizona gets to host Arizona State. The Wildcats took the Sun Devils' best punch. Arizona State wasn't happy about the officiating, but it got to shoot 12 more free throws than Arizona. The Sun Devils also made 11 of 21 3-point shots for 52 percent. Arizona also shot well from beyond the arc. But the Wildcats are much more proficient from 3-point range than the Sun Devils, who shoot 33.2 percent from there. The Wildcats are the superior team. They are 11-3 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12. I don't see Arizona letting an 11-point lead slip like it did in the last meeting. I also don't envision the Sun Devils playing as well as they did on Thursday. ASU is 1-8 ATS following a loss and this last one was very tough to take. The Sun Devils also are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road contests.
01-24-21	Valparaiso v. Illinois State -115		70-66	Loss	-115	7 h 54 m	Show
I'm looking for Illinois State to get revenge on Valparaiso after the Crusader upset Illinois State, 69-60, as 2-point road 'dogs on Saturday. The Redbirds suffered a letdown having upset Bradley at home during their previous game. Illinois holds a backcourt edge and should shoot more than 10 free throws, which was their Saturday total. The Redbirds also should make more than seven 3-pointers. They rank 29th in the country in 3-point shooting accuracy. The Crusaders had failed to cover in six straight games until upsetting Illinois State.
01-23-21	St. Mary's +3 v. San Francisco		67-63	Win	100	13 h 54 m	Show
This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8. The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three. The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga. St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win.
01-23-21	McNeese State +3 v. Houston Baptist		74-71	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup. McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points. Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games.
01-23-21	West Virginia v. Kansas State +11.5		69-47	Loss	-105	10 h 57 m	Show
Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time. The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time. West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups.
01-23-21	Kansas -1 v. Oklahoma		68-75	Loss	-114	8 h 14 m	Show
Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons. Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma. The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12. The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark.
01-22-21	San Diego State v. Air Force UNDER 127.5	Top	98-61	Loss	-110	20 h 8 m	Show
Not only are these two defensive-minded teams, but they also rank first and second in terms of slowest pace in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is an upper tier defensive team ranking 12th in the country, giving up 60.7 points per game. Air Force ranks among the bottom teams scoring-wise at 58.9 points. The Falcons have failed to reach 60 points in four of their last six games. They rate 342nd in the nation in scoring. Air Force catches a break in that San Diego State won't have their leading scorer, senior Matt Mitchell. He has a knee injury and won't play for at least another week. MItchell averages 15.3 points, the only Aztec player to average more than 13 points. MItchell had played in 114 out of a possible 114 games for the Aztecs before his injury. His likely replacement is Keshad Johnson, who recently returned from a shoulder injury and averages only 3.2 points. There are several pertinent Under trends that dovetail together - The Under is 7-1 the last eight times San Diego State has played a sub .500 opponent and the Under is 22-7 the past 29 times Air Force has met a team with a winning record.

Service	Profit
Jack Jones	$2,088
Doc's Sports	$1,484
Sean Murphy	$1,139
Brandon Lee	$988
Jimmy Boyd	$894
John Martin	$864
Timothy Black	$822
Michael Alexander	$721
Black Widow	$625
Frank Sawyer	$566

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