|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-02-23||Tulane v. USC OVER 63.5||Top||46-45||Win||100||33 h 38 m||Show|
The total is high in this one - but not high enough.
Tulane was the 21st-highest scoring team in the country averaging 35.2 points a game. That average goes up to 38.8 during its last seven games. USC has trouble against mobile quarterbacks and Tulane's Michael Pratt is a dual threat.
Pratt accounted for 35 touchdowns through the air and on the ground rushing for 395 yards and passing for 2,775 yards.
Lincoln Riley turned USC around. The Trojans did this on offense averaging 41.1 points per game, third-best in the country. If you discount their Pac-12 title game against Utah - the one team the Trojans had trouble against - the Trojans averaged 44.8 points during their last six games.
Caleb Williams may be the best QB in the nation. He threw for 4,075 yards, 37 TD's with just four interceptions while completing 66.1 percent of his throws. I don't see Tulane's defense stopping USC's offense, which can offset several opt-outs with its depth.
The Over has cashed in each of USC's last seven games.
|12-31-22||Ohio State v. Georgia OVER 62||Top||41-42||Win||100||20 h 10 m||Show|
Georgia's defense has gotten a lot of credit and publicity during the past two seasons. But the Bulldogs' offense isn't too shabby either. They ranked seventh in total offense and 11th in scoring at 39.2 points a game. Stetson Bennett has improved as a passer. The Bulldogs were especially impressive in the red zone scoring 97 percent of the time during 71 trips inside the 20. It's alarming to see how many big plays Ohio State gave up to Michigan in its 45-23 loss during its last game.
That game went Over. No surprise as the Buckeyes have gone Over in nine of their last 10 games. Georgia didn't face too many really strong passing attacks. Ohio State is the best the Bulldogs have seen.
C.J. Stroud had the highest passer efficiency rating in the country. He may have the best wide receiver in the country, too, in Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes had the second-highest yards per play in the nation. The Bulldogs surrendered 30 points and 505 passing yards to LSU in their last game, the SEC title game.
|12-31-22||Kansas State v. Alabama OVER 56||20-45||Win||100||23 h 26 m||Show|
I'm expecting a loose game between strong offenses that should result in this total going Over.
Kansas State is thrilled to be in the Sugar Bowl. The Wildcats got their offense in full gear averaging 38.6 points during their last six games to win the Big 12 championship. They feature one of the top all-purpose backs in the nation in Deuce Vaughn.
Alabama is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 40.8 points led by Heisman Trophy-winning QB Bryce Young. The Tide, though, are disappointed they didn't make the College Football Playoffs. Unlike Kansas State, they had a number of opt-outs. But Alabama has a deep roster.
This is the Tide's chance to get those offensive players big-time experience, so I'm expecting them to play aggressive. That's been their style as seven of their last nine bowl games have gone Over.
|12-30-22||Clemson v. Tennessee UNDER 63.5||14-31||Win||100||25 h 60 m||Show|
Both defenses are not getting enough respect here especially with each minus its starting quarterback.
Clemson surrenders just 20.1 points a game. The Tigers ranked 10th in run defense. Georgia might be the best defensive team in the country. But Clemson was close to the Bulldogs giving up 4.97 yards per play compared to Georgia's 4.88.
The Tigers get to face a Tennessee squad that has lost much of its feared passing attack. The Volunteers lost their stud QB Hendon Hooker to a season-ending injury two games ago. The Vols also will be without their top wide receiver, Jalin Hyatt, and third-best wideout, Cedric Tillman. Both opted out of the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Joe Milton replaces Hooker - and it's a monster drop-off.
Tennessee gave up 27 points or fewer in nine games. The Vols held opponents to 23.5 points on the season while ranking 18th in run defense.
Because of using largely untested backup quarterbacks, both teams will emphasize the run more, which will eat clock. Each team has strong run defenses, too.
|12-28-22||Ole Miss v. Texas Tech UNDER 71.5||Top||25-42||Win||100||20 h 49 m||Show|
This total has been bet up - too far up in my view.
Mississippi is a running team with a respectable defense that gives up 24.2 points a game. The Rebels enter this matchup having lost three in a row. They are averaging just 24.8 points in their last five games.
Mississippi played in the Sugar Bowl last year and lost 21-7 to Baylor. It was the fifth straight bowl game the Rebels went Under the total.
Texas Tech's season offensive numbers are skewed because of three overtime games. The Red Raiders are capable of playing stout defense. They held Iowa State and West Virginia to 10 points each.
The Under has cashed in eight of the Red Raiders' last 11 non-conference games.
|12-24-22||Middle Tennessee State v. San Diego State UNDER 47.5||25-23||Loss||-110||28 h 36 m||Show|
San Diego State gives up just 20.2 points per game, which ranks 20th in the nation. The Aztecs only average 21.3 points a game and even that low total is skewed by scoring 38 points against Idaho State and 43 versus San Jose State. That inflated their season total.
The Aztecs scored 23 points or less in eight of their other nine games against FBS competition. The Under is 12-5-1 the last 18 times the Aztecs have met an above .500 foe.
Middle Tennessee State came on defensively holding three of its last five opponents to 21 points or less.
|12-20-22||Toledo v. Liberty UNDER 54||Top||21-19||Win||100||47 h 26 m||Show|
Don't be fooled by Toledo playing in the high-scoring Mid-American Conference. Also don't be fooled by this game being played in South Florida.
Toledo easily is the best defensive team in the MAC. They rank 24th in defensive total yards in the country and just held Ohio to seven points in the MAC title game, which was 25 points below the Bobcats' season average.
Liberty hasn't been the same since it lost its coach, Huge Freeze, to Auburn. The Flames averaged just 22.4 points in their last four games.
Until that happened, Liberty was a strong defensive team. The Flames should regroup for this bowl game. They have a superstar defensive lineman in Durrell Johnson, who has eight sacks and 22 1/2 tackles for losses.
The weather is a plus, too, for the Under with an 80 percent chance of rain and wind in the 15-20 mph range.
|12-03-22||LSU v. Georgia UNDER 52.5||30-50||Loss||-110||18 h 2 m||Show|
Defending national champion Georgia had a defense for the ages last season. Their defense isn't too shabby this season either.
The Bulldogs give up the fewest points in the country at 11.3. No team has scored more than 22 points in a game against the Bulldogs. Georgia also ranks No. 1 against the run and fourth in total defense.
LSU's defense is very respectful. The Tigers rank 33rd in total defense and scoring defense.
The Tigers held seven of their opponents to 20 points or less.
LSU held Arkansas to 13 points, which is 17.7 points under its average. The Tigers gave up just 10 points to Alabama-Birmingham, which was 20.6 points under the Blazers' average. LSU held Mississippi to 20 points, which was 14.2 points below its average. Mississippi State could manage just 16 points versus the Tigers, which was 22 points under its average. Florida State scored 24 points against the Tigers. That was 12.2 points under the Seminoles' average.
|11-26-22||Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 47.5||Top||14-62||Loss||-110||23 h 53 m||Show|
Iowa State has gone Under in its last seven Big 12 Conference games. It's easy to see why. The Cyclones have the top defense in the league, but the worst offense.
The Cyclones aren't going bowling for the first time since 2016. So playing unbeaten fourth-ranked TCU is their bowl game. Look for Iowa State to play its usual tough defensive, field-position type of game especially being on the road. The Under is 21-8-1 in the Cyclones' last 30 road contests.
TCU already has its ticket punched for the Big 12 title game next week. The Horned Frogs don't want to show too much in this game so as not to tip their hand. They would be satisfied with a victory, not running up a huge score.
|11-26-22||South Carolina v. Clemson OVER 52.5||31-30||Win||100||18 h 43 m||Show|
The buy sign is on these two offenses.
Spencer Rattler finally lived up to his big reputation last week for South Carolina. The Oklahoma transfer passed for 438 yards and six touchdowns in the Gamecocks' 63-38 win against Tennessee.
The Over has cashed in 11 of South Carolina's last 14 road games.
Clemson's attack is in gear, too. The Tigers have produced a combined 71 points in their last two games crushing Miami and Louisville.
|11-26-22||Georgia State v. Marshall UNDER 50||Top||23-28||Loss||-110||130 h 15 m||Show|
You can't go wrong taking the Under when Marshall is involved. The Thundering Herd has gone Under in nine of its 11 games. Marshall has a top-10 defense, a weak passing attack and runs the ball a lot. That's a winning Under combination.
Georgia State can't pass either. The Panthers rank 107th in passing. Marshall is hardly any better, rating 104th in passing.
Marshall is holding foes to 15.5 points a game. Georgia State's defense isn't very good, but it is opportunistic coming up with 13 takeaways, which ranks 15th in the nation.
The oddsmaker has opened this total too high. There haven't been more than 49 points scored in any of Marshall's past eight games. This one shouldn't be any different.
Note, too, that the early weather forecast is for a 50 percent chance of rain with 10-to-15 mph winds.
|11-19-22||Fresno State v. Nevada OVER 54||41-14||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
Fresno State is far more potent with star QB Jake Haener back. The Bulldogs have scored 32 points or more points in each of their last four games. They average nearly 39 points in games Haener has started and finished. Nevada's defense doesn't have nearly the talent to keep Haener and running back Jordan Mims in check. The Bulldogs could come close to covering this total themselves. But the Wolf Pack can chip in because they should be able to run on Fresno State, which ranks 95th in rush defense. This in turn will make it easier for the Wolf Pack to pass.
|11-12-22||Appalachian State v. Marshall UNDER 48||21-28||Loss||-110||22 h 52 m||Show|
No team has played more Unders this season than Marshall. The Thundering Herd have gone Under in eight of their nine games, including the last six.
Marshall gives up 15.6 points, ranks No. 3 in run defense and ninth in total defense. The Thundering Herd, though, has a limited passing attack ranking 110th. So they run the ball a lot, which eats clock.
Appalachian State also has a good defense ranking 27th in fewest yards allowed per game and are run-oriented on offense. The Under has cashed in four of the Mountaineers' last five games.
|11-12-22||Temple v. Houston OVER 56||36-43||Win||100||21 h 54 m||Show|
Houston scored 63 points against SMU last week - and still lost by 14. There's only one way to look at Houston games and it's certainly not Under. The Over has cashed in eight of the Cougars' nine games this season.
The Cougars average 36.8 points and give up an average of 36.2 points.
Temple isn't going to be able to slow down Clayton Tune and the rest of Houston's high-caliber attack. The Owls should be able to kick in their fair share of points. Their offense came alive in a 54-28 victory against South Florida last week. Edward Saydee rushed for 265 yards and QB E.J. Warner passed for 344 yards for Temple.
|11-12-22||Vanderbilt v. Kentucky UNDER 49.5||24-21||Win||100||93 h 46 m||Show|
It's not a fluke that Kentucky has gone Under in eight of its nine games this season. The Wildcats are run-oriented, go at the slowest pace of any team in the country and have a tremendous defense that ranks 11th in fewest yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense holding opponents to 19.6 points a game.
Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann is out with a lower body injury. He's the Commodores' best passing quarterback. Vanderbilt is averaging only 12.5 points during its past five games.
The Commodores do not have a good defense. However, their best feature is stopping the run. Kentucky figures to stay on the ground a lot especially given the projected weather conditions, which are calling for wind in the 15-22 mph range.
|11-05-22||Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 42.5||21-17||Win||100||92 h 40 m||Show|
Two strong defenses, slow tempo and possible bad weather. Add this up and you have the recipe for an Under.
Kentucky gives up 19.9 points a game. Missouri permits just 21.5 points per game. Both teams rank in the top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game.
The Under has covered in 21 of the Wildcats' last 29 road games. Missouri has been a huge money-maker for Under bettors going below the total in 10 of its last 11 games. The last five in this series played in Missouri have gone Under, too.
There also could be weather issues with heavy wind and a chance of rain.
|11-05-22||Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 49.5||10-23||Win||100||25 h 22 m||Show|
Weather is going to impact the amount of scoring in this game. Heavy winds, even gusting, are in the forecast.
That could force a lot more running plays something the Badgers wouldn't mind. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is Wisconsin's interim head coach after Paul Chryst was fired earlier this season.
Maryland's outstanding quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, missed last week's game against Northwestern. He's dealing with a knee injury. Tagovailoa is likely to start, but he could be gimpy and the blowing winds aren't suited to his downfield throwing.
|11-05-22||Air Force v. Army UNDER 40.5||13-7||Win||100||20 h 1 m||Show|
This is a low total, but not low enough when the matchup is Army versus Air Force in the Commanders' Classic.
The Black Knights defeated Air Force, 21-14, last year - and that was one of the higher-scoring matchups.
Here are the combined points in this matchup for the last five years: 35 (last year), 17 (2020), 30 (2019), 31 (2018) and 21 (2017). The Under, in fact, has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games in the series.
This is what happens in a huge rivalry game between two completely run-oriented teams. Air Force has a tremendous defense this year, too. The Falcons rank ninth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense allowing 16.8 points a game. The Under has won 15 of the last 20 times Air Force has played a non-conference opponent.
The game is being played at a neutral site, too, in Arlington, Texas.
|10-29-22||Coastal Carolina v. Marshall UNDER 54.5||24-13||Win||100||27 h 46 m||Show|
Both from a matchup perspective and trend/angles standpoint the Under seems the right play given this high of a total.
Coastal Carolina has gone Under in six of its last seven road games, while the Under has won in seven of Marshall's last eight home games.
Marshall ranks in the top-11 in defensive scoring, fewest yards allowed and run defense. Coastal Carolina hasn't seen a defense this good all season.
The Chanticleers are not a good defensive team, but they are opportunistic ranking 31st in takeaways. They are facing a feeble Marshall offense that ranks 82nd in scoring averaging 26.6 points and is 109th in passing yards.
The tempo is going to be slow, too, which is a huge plus for the Under.
|10-29-22||Rutgers v. Minnesota UNDER 41||0-31||Win||100||25 h 21 m||Show|
Minnesota is run-oriented with a weak passing game. Rutgers ranks sixth in the nation in run defense and eighth in total defense. The Scarlet Knights permit just 88 yards rushing per game and 3.0 per rush attempt. The Gophers may not even have their starting QB, Tanner Morgan. He's questionable with a concussion.
The Gophers are strong defensively giving up the 10th-fewest points in the country at 16.4. Rutgers has cleared the 17-point barrier only once in its last five games. The Scarlet Knights rank 113th in yards per game.
Not surprisingly neither team plays at a fast tempo. In fact, they are two of the slowest-paced teams in the nation. So the clock will keep moving.
|10-22-22||Marshall v. James Madison UNDER 54.5||Top||26-12||Win||100||126 h 51 m||Show|
The oddsmaker still must think Randy Moss is playing for Marshall. The Thundering Herd aren't good offensively. They're averaging 10 points during their last two Sun Belt Conference games. That was against Troy and Louisiana Lafayette, with one touchdown against Lafayette coming in garbage time.
Marshall is heavily run-oriented. James Madison happens to have the top run defense in the nation.
The oddsmaker might have been influenced by James Madison losing, 45-38, to Georgia Southern this past Saturday. Marshall is a much better defensive team and is nearly as up-tempo as Georgia Southern.
The Thundering Herd rank 17th in scoring defense giving up 17.3 points a game. They are 13th in total defense holding foes to 290.3 yards per game. The Dukes do not play at a fast tempo especially when in the lead, which should be the case since they are around two-touchdown favorites.
(Note: The total has come down since I first released the play. This has hurt the line value, but the handicap still holds as I don't see these teams reaching 50 points.)
|10-22-22||Northern Illinois v. Ohio OVER 64.5||17-24||Loss||-110||23 h 54 m||Show|
Northern Illinois has gone Over in six of its seven games this season. The Huskies' offense has taken off averaging 36.3 points in their last three games. Rocky Lombardi returned last week for the Huskies after being out. That's just another plus because he's one of the best QB's in the MAC.
He faces an Ohio defense that ranks second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed per play. The Bobcats surrender an average of 36.9 points a game.
This isn't just going to be one-way scoring. Ohio will put up a lot of points on Northern Illinois behind Kurtis Rourke, who could be the top QB in the MAC. He's completed 70 percent of his throws and has accounted for 17 TD's in seven games. The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in passing yards.
The Huskies rank 116th in scoring defense allowing 34.3 points and also rank 116th in pass defense. They are not going to be able to slow down Rourke.
The Over has cashed in each of Ohio's last five home games.
|10-22-22||Houston v. Navy OVER 50||38-20||Win||100||19 h 55 m||Show|
There have been some wild games in the American Athletic Conference. Houston and Navy both were involved in two of them last week. The Cougars came back from a 26-7 fourth quarter deficit to nip Memphis, 33-32, while Navy scored 20 fourth-quarter points while gaining 510 yards in a 40-34 loss to SMU.
The Cougars are within one point of having every one of their games go Over. They average 31.3 points and give up 33.7 points. All six of Houston's opponents have scored a minimum of 27 points against the Cougars.
Houston QB Clayton Tune gets to face a Navy pass defense that ranks 111th.
The Midshipmen have scored a combined 87 points in their last two games against Tulsa and SMU. They are the fifth-best rushing team in the nation.
Yet the marketplace has been on the Under. The total has been knocked down enough where it has now become an excellent value play on the Over.
|10-15-22||Rice v. Florida Atlantic OVER 55.5||14-17||Loss||-110||49 h 56 m||Show|
A decent offense and bad defense. That's Rice and its formula for going Over in 14 of its last 17 games, including all five this season.
I see another Over in the Owls' matchup against Florida Atlantic.
Both teams should be fresh with a few tricks up their sleeves having each enjoyed a bye last week.
Rice gives up 31 points a game. The Owls are averaging 35 points, however, during their last four games.
Florida Atlantic also averages 31 points per game. Florida Atlantic has surrendered at least 40 points against three of its last four Division I opponents. Florida Atlantic is off a bad 45-28 loss to North Texas State.
|10-15-22||Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 52.5||Top||17-41||Loss||-110||116 h 31 m||Show|
I was surprised to see this total open this high. Think defense rather than offense in this matchup.Penn State allows less than 15 points a game. The Nittany Lions have the seventh best run defense in the country. Michigan gives up 11.3 points a game. The Wolverines surrender the fifth-fewest yards per game and are No. 6 in run defense. Michigan's defensive line holds a major edge on Penn State's offensive line. These are typical Big Ten teams who rely on the run. Neither of these teams plays fast either. The Wolverines are one of the slowest tempo teams in the nation.
|10-08-22||South Carolina v. Kentucky OVER 49||24-14||Loss||-110||79 h 25 m||Show|
South Carolina is giving up an average of 46 points a game during its two SEC matchups, which were against Georgia and Arkansas. The Gamecocks have played easy opponents during their past two games. Now they go back into SEC competition.
Chris Rodriguez is an elite running back for Kentucky. He's back in the lineup and should do well against a South Carolina run defense that ranks 106th. Kentucky's star QB Will Levis is fine, too, after hurting his hand last week. South Carolina lacks the necessary pass rush to both Levis.
The Gamecocks are averaging 35.6 points per game. They have a pro prospect at QB in Spencer Rattler. He leads a balanced attack. South Carolina has scored 56 and 50 points, respectively, during its last two games going against Charlotte and South Carolina State. Kentucky is much better on defense than those two teams.
However, the Wildcats only have four takeaways. So I see South Carolina holding up its end in getting this total Over.
|10-08-22||James Madison v. Arkansas State OVER 55||42-20||Win||100||24 h 41 m||Show|
James Madison has been most impressive in its transition from FCS to FBS this season going 4-0 SU and ATS. The Dukes are averaging 44.8 points, which ranks eighth in the nation.
Arkansas State can score, too, especially at home scoring 58 and 45 points, respectively, this season. I see a shootout here similar to what the Red Wolves were involved in three weeks ago when they lost, 44-32, to Memphis.
Both teams have excellent quarterbacks. Todd Centeio is a dual threat for James Madison. He's accounted for 13 TD's with 913 yards passing and another 252 yards rushing. Arkansas State QB James Blackman leads an attack that averages 34.6 points.
|10-08-22||Air Force v. Utah State OVER 54.5||Top||27-34||Win||100||28 h 9 m||Show|
Air Force leads the nation in rushing averaging 379 yards. Utah State can't stop the run. The Aggies allow 5.3 yards per run, which ranks 117th. They are giving up 36.4 points per game.
Utah State's new QB, Cooper Legas, made his first start last week against BYU. He threw a pair of TD passes and the Aggies scored 26 points.
Air Force has played against weak passing teams. The Aggies play up-tempo. This combination should produce points for Utah State.
|10-08-22||Missouri v. Florida UNDER 54.5||17-24||Win||100||21 h 37 m||Show|
This is a big revenge spot for Florida after it lost to Missouri, 24-23, on the road last year. That was the fifth straight time in this series the Under covered.
I see another Under in this matchup.
Missouri's defense was impressive in holding Georgia to 26 points last week. The Tigers could be looking to stay on the ground more knowing they may be without their top wide receiver, Dominic Lovett.
Florida has gone Under in seven of its last 10 home games. The Gators' defensive statistics are skewed because they've played Utah, Kentucky and Tennessee.
|10-01-22||Georgia State v. Army OVER 53||31-14||Loss||-110||90 h 9 m||Show|
Both teams should enjoy great success on the ground given the quality of their ground attacks and vulnerability of the opponent's rush defense.
Georgia State plays fast. The Panthers have the shortest time of possession of any team in the country. The Panthers rank 37th in rushing. Army ranks 114th in run defense. The Over has cashed in eight of Georgia State's last 11 non-conference games.
The Panthers are giving up 38.3 points pre game. They rank 119th in total defense. Army is the No. 3 rushing team in the country.
Just two weeks ago, Georgia State surrendered 42 points to Charlotte. The 49ers average 19.5 points in their four other games. That certainly bodes well for Army.
|09-30-22||UTSA v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 64||Top||45-30||Win||100||26 h 34 m||Show|
Texas San Antonio has gone Over in all four of its games this season. It's not a fluke. The Roadrunners average 35 points while giving up 37. They are 27th in total offense and 112th in total defense. They have gone Over in each of their last seven road contests. Middle Tennessee State has gone Over in its last two games. The Blue Raiders average nearly 34 points per game, but have a below average defense that San Antonio's excellent QB, Frank Harris, should have little trouble exploiting.
|09-24-22||Rice v. Houston OVER 51||27-34||Win||100||47 h 30 m||Show|
This is the lowest total Houston has had this season - and it's not justified.
Rice has bounced back from a 66-14 opening loss to USC, to roll past McNeese State, 52-10, and then upset Louisiana Lafayette, 33-21, last week. That marked the seventh straight time the Owls have gone above the total.
TJ McMahon has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for Rice for 642 yards and seven TD's through these first three games. Houston ranks 118th in total defense. The Cougars have this low defensive ranking despite not having faced a top-30 offense.
The 1-2 Cougars are frustrated having lost to Texas Tech in double overtime and then getting upset by Kansas, 48-30, during their past two games. The Cougars have a high-powered attack led by QB Clayton Tune, who has completed close to 63 percent of his throws for 744 yards and five TD's. He has one of the better receivers in the country, Nathaniel Dell. Houston scored 44 points against Rice last season.
The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games.
|09-24-22||Tulsa v. Ole Miss UNDER 65.5||27-35||Win||100||74 h 50 m||Show|
The competition hasn't been good. Still, Mississippi has held its first three opponents to an average of 4.3 points after shutting out Georgia Tech last week. So I find this total too high.
Tulsa is No. 1 in the country in passing with Davis Brin. But the Golden Hurricane are going against an SEC defense that is playing great. The Rebels are averaging more than four sacks a game. Tulsa has given up 10 sacks in three games against inferior competition.
Mississippi has run the ball nearly 65 percent of the time. The Rebels will look to pound the ball against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane have had trouble stopping the run. But running the ball is good for the Under especially with a total in this high range.
The combination of being run-oriented and playing outstanding defense has resulted in Ole Miss going Under in 10 of its last 11 games.
|09-24-22||North Texas v. Memphis OVER 68.5||Top||34-44||Win||100||86 h 29 m||Show|
This total may look high on the surface, but it's not when these two teams are involved. There were 85 and 86 points scored in North Texas' last two games. There were 76 points produced in Memphis' last game.
Both teams are well above average offensively and terrible defensively. Each also ranks in the top 25 in fastest tempo. That's a recipe for Over.
North Texas ranks 126th defensively in yards giving up 502.8 per game. The Mean Green allow 36.5 points a game, which rates 115th. Memphis QB Seth Hennigan and his bevy of weapons can easily exploit that.
The Tigers are 99th in scoring defense permitting 31.3 points a game. They rank 111th in pass defense. North Texas ranks 33rd in offensive yards per game.
|09-17-22||Arkansas State v. Memphis OVER 62||32-44||Win||100||128 h 30 m||Show|
This game is all about offense. Neither team has much defensively. There were a whopping 105 points scored in last year's game.
|09-17-22||Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64||42-0||Win||100||65 h 18 m||Show|
Georgia Tech isn't explosive enough to trade points with Mississippi ranking 124th in passing. The Yellow Jackets are back to trying to control the ball via their ground game. Georgia Tech has played decent run defense, though, and the Rebels apparently aren't fully sold yet on USC transfer QB Jaxson Dart.
So I'm expecting more running plays than perceived, which is good for an Under with a total in this high range. Mississippi does have a pair of good running backs in Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans. The strength of Georgia Tech, though, is a defensive line that in two games versus Clemson and Western Carolina has recorded seven sacks and 15 tackles for losses.
Note that Georgia Tech plays its home games on grass. Mississippi is a turf team. The Rebels have gone Under eight of the last nine times when playing on grass.
|09-17-22||Old Dominion v. Virginia UNDER 52.5||14-16||Win||100||97 h 52 m||Show|
There's a false perception surrounding Virginia. Just because the Cavaliers have a decent QB, Brennan Armstrong, doesn't mean they have a good offense. The Cavaliers are averaging 18.5 points during their first two games. They have a new offensive philosophy of grinding the ball on the ground instead of letting Armstrong make plays through the air. Some of this strategy is caused by Virginia lacking playmakers around Armstrong and having a very bad offensive line.
Old Dominion is averaging 20.5 points in its first two games. The Monarchs got thrown a curve when Dave Patenaude, their offensive coordinator last season, resigned just weeks before the start of the season. The Monarchs don't make many big plays on offense. Their run defense, though, is decent. Old Dominion held opposing teams to 134.2 rushing yards per game while giving up 12 rushing TD's last year.
The Under has cashed in seven of Virginia's last eight home games. The Under also has cashed seven of the past 10 times when Old Dominion has met a non-conference foe.
|09-10-22||New Mexico State v. UTEP UNDER 47.5||13-20||Win||100||27 h 43 m||Show|
This is a terrible matchup. But it sets up a winning play on the Under.
New Mexico State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Aggies have put up 12 points total against Nevada-Reno and Minnesota. They had less than 100 yards total offense against the Gophers.
UTEP hasn't broken the 25-point barrier in eight of its last nine games. The Miners have scored 13 points in each of their two games against North Texas and Oklahoma. New Mexico State's coach Jerry Kill is well known for his slow pace. He completely plays for field position. UTEP's defensive strength is run defense.
The Miners also prefer to play slow. This total is low, but not low enough.
|09-10-22||Florida International v. Texas State OVER 55||Top||12-41||Loss||-110||132 h 26 m||Show|
(Editor's note: Stephen Nover put this total out shortly after the game came on the board. He made it his Non-Conference Total of the Year based on tremendous line value and a strong handicap. Within 24 hours, though, the total had been bet so far up that Stephen took the game down because the line value had been lost. However, the handicap still holds.)
Two bad defenses against fast-paced offenses. That's a winning combination for an Over in this matchup between Florida International and Texas State.
How bad is Florida International? The Panthers had to go overtime to nip Bryant, a bad FCS program, 38-37. Bryant had eight plays of at least 20 yards against the Panthers. The Panthers are in total rebuild mode under new coach Mike MacIntyre.
A key takeaway from that game was the Panthers taking less than 20 seconds between running plays. That's a tremendously fast pace.
Texas State is up-tempo, too. The Bobcats found themselves a good QB in Layne Hatcher, who was the Freshman of the Year in the Sun Belt Conference at Arkansas State before transferring to Texas State. The Bobcats' problem is once again defense. They surrendered 38 points to Nevada last week. The Wolf Pack lost all of their skill position stars from last season and managed only 23 points against New Mexico State in their first game.
|09-10-22||Virginia v. Illinois UNDER 58||3-24||Win||100||73 h 51 m||Show|
Virginia is going to find it much tougher going against Illinois after opening with an easy win against Richmond. The Illini have a tough defense especially against the run. Neither Wyoming nor Indiana could effectively run on the Illini.
The Illini are a ground-and-pound team. They have an excellent running back in Chase Brown. But I'm not nearly so enamored of their QB, Tommy Devito.
Virginia has a much better QB in Brennan Armstrong. However, the Cavaliers lost each of their five starting offensive linemen from last season. So an early season road game - their first of the year - against a stout Illinois front four is not ideal.
|09-10-22||Duke v. Northwestern UNDER 57.5||31-23||Win||100||21 h 55 m||Show|
The David Cutcliffe era is finished at Duke. It's replaced by defensive-minded Mike Elko. The Blue Devils looked sharp defensively in Elko's head coaching debut shutting out Temple, 30-0, last week. Duke held the Owls to 179 total yards and 12 first downs. Another takeaway from that game was the Blue Devils' conservative offensive style scoring just six points in the second half after building a 24-0 halftime lead.
Now the Blue Devils meet a physical Big Ten defense in Northwestern. The Wildcats have had extra time to prepare having last played in Dublin, Ireland on Aug. 27, beating Nebraska, 31-28, in that game.
Duke hosted Northwestern last year and won, 30-23. Now it's Northwestern's turn to host. The Wildcats are a strong Under team at home where the low side has cashed 72 percent of the time during their last 75 home games.
I'm down on Northwestern QB Ryan Hilinski and the rest of the Wildcats' skill position players rating them among the worst in the Big Ten.
|09-03-22||Houston v. UTSA OVER 61.5||37-35||Win||100||18 h 56 m||Show|
These are two-high scoring teams with plenty of returning firepower.
Houston averaged nearly 36 points a game last season. Back for the Cougars are QB Clayton Tune, who completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,544 yards and threw 30 TD's, and his leading receiver, Nathaniel Dell.
Texas San Antonio averaged 36.9 points last season and return QB Frank Harris, who completed 66.1 percent of his throws for 3,177 yards with 27 TD passes. He also rushed for 566 yards and had six TD's on the ground. He faces a Cougars secondary that lost their two best cornerbacks.
The Roadrunners also have back seven other offensive starters, including their top four receivers and four offensive linemen. Their losses were on defense where only five starters are back.
|09-03-22||Oregon v. Georgia UNDER 54.5||3-49||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
Yes Georgia lost a ton of talent from its defense. That defense gave up a modern-day record 6.9 points per game. The Bulldogs, though, just reload. Don't kid yourself, Georgia's defense still is dominant.
Dan Lanning was Georgia's co-defensive coordinator the past three years. Now he happens to be the head coach of Oregon. So he knows the Bulldogs well. Oregon has some outstanding defensive talent, too.
Neither team's quarterback is dynamic. Georgia's Stetson Bennett is steady rather than spectacular while Oregon QB Bo Nix did nothing as a three-year starter at Auburn. The Bulldogs are familiar with Nix, too.
The Ducks are learning a new offense and Georgia plays at a slow tempo. These are two more pluses for the Under.
|09-01-22||Louisiana Tech v. Missouri OVER 61.5||Top||24-52||Win||100||19 h 31 m||Show|
An up-tempo, fast-pace style featuring exciting playmakers and vulnerable defenses should result in more than enough points to get this Over the total.
Let's begin with Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are going to play faster under new coach Sonny Cumbie, who loves to pass. The Bulldogs should score their share of points against a vulnerable Missouri defense that has plenty of questions in its secondary. Louisiana Tech's offensive strengths is its passing attack and a much improved offensive line.
Brady Cook won Missouri's starting QB position. He's well versed in the Tigers' attack and has some outstanding wide receiving weapons. The Tigers shouldn't encounter much resistance from a weak Louisiana Tech defense that ranked 106th in total defense and 114th in scoring defense giving up 34 points per game last year.
|08-27-22||Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 51||Top||23-12||Win||100||174 h 37 m||Show|
Jerry Kill is New Mexico State's new head coach. We know Kill's style - run the ball, take time off the clock and play for field position. Kill inherits an inexperienced offense full of new starters.
Nevada's new coach, Ken Wilson, holds the same cards with his offense - just about all new players. The Wolf Pack lost all of their talented skill position players from last year. Wilson is more run-oriented, too, than the man he replaced, Jay Norvell. Wilson also is dealing with an inexperienced offensive line.
New Mexico State returns eight defensive starters. The Aggies have decent linebackers. Given the new makeup of these teams with run-oriented coaches, I see fewer points being produced than the oddsmaker envisioned.
|08-27-22||Charlotte v. Florida Atlantic OVER 59.5||13-43||Loss||-110||71 h 17 m||Show|
Charlotte and Florida Atlantic are a pair of middle-of-the-road Conference USA teams whose offenses should be ahead of their defenses for this opener.
Charlotte has one of the better QB's in the conference, Chris Reynolds. He's one of eight returning offensive starters for the 49ers. Reynolds is the school's all-time passing leader with 7,726 yards. He set school records with 2,684 passing yards and 26 TD throws last season. Florida Atlantic is breaking in new cornerbacks and has an unproven pass rush.
The Owls scored 38 points on Charlotte in last year's game. They have a dual threat QB in N'Kosi Perry. The Owls have back their two top receivers, LaJohntay Wester and Je'Quan Burton. Johnny Ford gives Florida Atlantic the best running back on the field.
|01-10-22||Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5||Top||33-18||Win||100||18 h 13 m||Show|
This total has gone up four points from when the teams met in last month's SEC title game. That's because Alabama blasted Georgia, 41-24, in that matchup.
I don't see that happening again now that Georgia has a better read on Bryce Young, Jameson Williams, Brian Robinson and the rest of Alabama's high-powered attack.
Until that loss to the Crimson Tide, the Bulldogs hadn't given up more than 17 points in a game all season, holding eight foes to seven or fewer points. Georgia has the best defense in the country and that's not up for debate. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense, second in defensive total yards, No. 3 in passing yards and fourth in rushing yards.
The Under is 8-2-2 in Georgia's last 12 neutral site games.
Alabama, naturally, has defensive studs, too. The Crimson Tide also is facing a lesser QB in Stetson Bennett.
|12-30-21||Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41.5||13-20||Loss||-110||11 h 43 m||Show|
Going by season statistics, this total seems right. But I find it too low given current form and the respective offenses having ample time to prepare. Wisconsin finished its regular season giving up 28 points to Nebraska and 23 points to Minnesota. These were not two of the Big Ten's more powerful offenses. Arizona State averages nearly 30 points a game and ranked 23rd in rushing. Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels is a dual threat. The Badgers have another strong ground attack ranking 16th in the nation. Discounting their final regular season game against Minnesota, the Badgers averaged 35.8 points in their last five games.
|12-30-21||Pittsburgh v. Michigan State UNDER 59.5||Top||21-31||Win||100||320 h 4 m||Show|
This figured to be an entertaining, high-scoring game. Not anymore with word that Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett and Michigan State running back Kenneth Walker III are not going to play.
Those two not playing completely changes the total.
Pickett passed for 4,319 yards and 42 TD's. Walker rushed for 1,636 yards and scored 18 TD's. They are the focal points of their team's offenses.
Michigan State gave up 25.7 points per game. The Spartans now will draw Pittsburgh backup QB Nick Patti, a massive drop for Pittsburgh. The Panthers also will be minus well-respected offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, who left for Nebraska. That's another huge hit for the Panthers' offense.
The Panthers held opponents to 23.1 points. Pittsburgh head coach Pat Narduzzi made his reputation as Michigan State's defensive coordinator before taking over at Pittsburgh. The Spartans are ground-oriented. Pittsburgh ranks sixth in the nation in run defense. Payton Thorne is a decent QB for Michigan State, but he's far from elite. He'll be facing a tough Panthers' defensive line.
|12-28-21||West Virginia v. Minnesota UNDER 45||Top||6-18||Win||100||21 h 47 m||Show|
Two slow-paced, grind-out, ground-oriented type teams with mediocre quarterbacks. That's what we have here in this Guaranteed Rate Bowl between West Virginia and Minnesota.
Given the matchup and circumstances, this game should be a dead nuts Under.
West Virginia ranks 93rd in tempo. The Mountaineers have a subpar offensive line and QB in Jarrett Doege. Their best running back is Leddie Brown, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards and scored 13 TD's. Brown, though, opted out. Minnesota is extremely tough defensively ranking in the top 11 in the major defensive categories - points, yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Only three teams surrendered fewer yards per game than the Gophers.
Minnesota plays even slower than West Virginia. The Gophers lost their first two running backs. But that doesn't change their approach. They run nearly 70 percent of the time. Their quarterback, Tanner Morgan, has had a disappointing season. Minnesota ranked 115th in passing.
West Virginia ranks 33rd in run defense.
|12-27-21||Western Michigan v. Nevada UNDER 56.5||52-24||Loss||-110||13 h 42 m||Show|
Nevada's outstanding passing attack is gutted with opt outs and transfers. The Wolf Pack will be minus star QB Carson Strong, tight end Cole Turner and wide receivers Romeo Doubs, Tory Horton, Melquan Stovall and Justin Lockhart. In addition, two of the Wolf Pack's starting offensive linemen won't be playing.
Take all of that firepower away and of course the Wolf Pack aren't left with much. Nevada is going to have to run the ball more than normal. The Wolf Pack ranked 129th in rushing averaging 2.9 yards a carry. Western MIchigan gave up the 29th fewest yards in the nation.
Unlike their offense, the Wolf Pack didn't suffer so many departures on defense. Nevada ranked a respectable 51st in scoring defense giving up 24.4 points a game. Western Michigan has been plagued by turnovers at times. Nevada ranked among the top 10 in turnovers.
Note this is an extremely early start, 8 a.m. West Coast time for Nevada, so that could lead to sluggish play.
|12-22-21||Missouri v. Army UNDER 54.5||22-24||Win||100||21 h 19 m||Show|
The perceived thinking about this Armed Services Bowl pitting Missouri versus Army is this: Army's triple-option attack is going to run rough shot against a Tigers defense that ranked 125th out of 130 FBS teams in stopping the run and that the Tigers are going to put up their share of points having averaged nearly 30 points during the regular season.
I don't see either occurring.
Army is strictly one-dimensional. The Cadets have no passing attack. They will be running the ball - eating clock - all game no matter what the score. Missouri's run defense is not as bad as its season statistics indicate. The Tigers greatly improved their rush defense down the stretch. They held South Carolina to 57 yards on the ground in 35 attempts three games ago and two games ago held Florida to 93 yards rushing on 33 carries for a 2.4 yard average.
The Cadets may be flat, too, off a tremendously disappointing loss to arch-rival Navy in their last game. Army managed just 124 yards rushing against the Midshipmen on 33 carries, a 3.7-yard average.
As for Missouri, its offense isn't nearly the same - nor effective - minus star all-purpose running back Tyler Badie. He produced 1,934 rushing and receiving yards while scoring 18 TD's. He opted out. The Tigers also are going to give Brady Cook his first career start instead of going with their regular quarterback, Connor Bazelak, who threw for 2,548 yards and 16 TD's during the regular season. Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz was not pleased with Bazelak's performance in Missouri's last game hence the QB switch.
Army ranks 15th in total defense and 36th in scoring defense giving up 22.3 points a game.
|12-18-21||Marshall v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5||Top||21-36||Loss||-110||32 h 17 m||Show|
Louisiana Lafayette has a tremendous defense. The Cajuns supplement their defense by playing ball control on offense, mixing running plays with short, conservative passes from Levi Lewis. This was on full display in the Cajuns' 24-16 victory against Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference championship game.
That pattern will be on display again against Marshall in this New Orleans Bowl resulting in another Under.
The Cajuns rank 11th in scoring defense giving up 18.2 points a game, while forcing 21 turnovers. Marshall QB Grant Wells threw 12 interceptions in 12 games. Marshall finished the regular season minus 5 in takeaways/giveaways.
The total is higher than I believe it should be partly because Marshall surrendered 53 points to Western Kentucky in its last game. Western Kentucky, though, is the second-highest scoring team in the country averaging 43.1 points. Before that game, the Thunder Herd had given up an average of 16 points during their past six games.
Marshall finished 13th nationally in sacks with 38 and has a star linebacker in Abraham Beauplan.
|12-18-21||Eastern Michigan v. Liberty UNDER 58.5||20-56||Loss||-110||18 h 32 m||Show|
Malik Willis gets all the attention when it comes to Liberty. But the Flames are very strong defensively. They rank fifth in pass defense, 11th in defensive total yards and 30th in scoring defense holding foes to 21.7 points a game.
Eastern Michigan doesn't run the ball effectively. Instead the Eagles rely on QB Ben Bryant and a short passing attack. Bryant is facing a top-notch pass defense here and a tough pass rush playing behind an offensive line that has yielded 38 sacks.
The Eagles should get their share of sacks, too, since Liberty surrendered 50 sacks.
Note that this bowl game is being played in Mobile, Ala., and the weather forecast is calling for an 80 percent chance of rain with thundershowers and wind in the 5-to-10 mph range. That's a bad break for Willis and a plus for the Under.
|12-04-21||Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 49.5||24-41||Loss||-110||22 h 45 m||Show|
I see defense trumping offense here. Georgia is the top defensive team in the country both in fewest yards and points per game. Only once has Georgia allowed more than 13 points and that was giving up 17 to Tennessee in a 34-point victory when the Volunteers scored a late TD during garbage time.
Alabama has had issues protecting Bryce Young. He's been sacked 33 times, including getting sacked seven times by Auburn in the Crimson Tide's last game.
|11-27-21||Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 45||14-47||Loss||-110||21 h 0 m||Show|
Neither Northwestern nor Illinois are going to bowl games. So this is their bowl game in this rivalry matchup.
Both teams are run-oriented with bad passing attacks. So expect a lot of running with the clock moving. The weather forecast is favorable to lots of run plays, too, with a chance of rain and wind in the 10-20 mph range.
The Wildcats rank second-to-last in the nation in scoring at 16.8 points. They haven't broken the 14-point barrier during their last five games, all against Big Ten teams. Andrew Marty is the Wildcats' fourth starting QB this season. He's thrown six interceptions during his four-game starting career while being sacked 10 times.
Illinois isn't any better ranking 118th in total offense and 122nd in scoring offense averaging 17.7 points.
The defenses are mediocre. Mediocrity trumps bad, though.
|11-27-21||Louisiana Tech v. Rice OVER 52.5||31-35||Win||100||40 h 14 m||Show|
Two bad Conference USA teams with similar horrendous defense should translate to a higher-scoring game than this total.
How bad are these defenses?
Louisiana Tech is giving up 37.4 points in its last five games. The Bulldogs rank 103rd in defensive total yards, 116th in pass defense.
Rice allows 36.6 points a game. Only four Division I teams give up more points per game. The Owls also are 105th in defensive total yards, 117th in pass defense.
|11-26-21||UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 50.5||Top||14-48||Loss||-110||26 h 3 m||Show|
Air Force gives up 19.5 points per game. UNLV averages 20.4 points. So don't expect the Rebels to produce many points here. They have a good running back, Charles Williams, and that's about it to their offense. Their QB's are inexperienced and not good downfield passers. UNLV's offensive line has permitted 36 sacks. Only five teams give up fewer yards per game than the Falcons.
UNLV doesn't have a good defense either. But the Rebels are decent in one defensive area - stopping the run where they ranked 50th in the country. Air Force is an option team that runs the ball nearly 88 percent of the time. That's going to eat clock.
Both teams are among the bottom-six in terms of tempo, too. So the pace should be extremely slow.
|11-20-21||Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 50||20-10||Win||100||118 h 22 m||Show|
Dave Aranda has long been known as a defensive whiz at Utah State and Wisconsin before going to LSU and now Baylor.
The Bears have shown steady defensive improvement under Aranda. They just held Oklahoma to a season-low 14 points.
Kansas State is a far drop from Oklahoma offensively. The Wildcats rank 92nd in total yards.
But like Baylor, Kansas State has come on defensively giving up 24, 12, 10 and 17 points in its last four games, all versus Big 12 schools.
Both teams rank in the top-four defensively in the Big 12. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow pace. The Bears rank 108th in tempo, while Kansas State is 128th in pace.
The Under has cashed the last four times the teams have played at Kansas State.
|11-20-21||Florida State v. Boston College OVER 54.5||26-23||Loss||-110||24 h 35 m||Show|
Florida State is playing better. The Seminoles just scored 31 points against Miami last week. Jordan Travis is back at QB for the Seminoles and he had a big game against the Hurricanes. Boston College just put up 41 points on Georgia Tech last week. The Eagles are a much more dangerous team now that pro prospect Phil Jurkovec is back from injury. He's one of the better QB's in the country. Jurkovec should put up strong numbers against a Seminoles secondary that ranks 88th in pass defense. The teams last met two seasons ago and there were 69 points scored in Florida State's 38-31 victory.
|11-17-21||Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5||Top||37-17||Win||100||21 h 15 m||Show|
Considering the weather forecast for Muncie, Ind., the total on this game is too high.There's a 90 percent chance of rain with winds in the 10-to-20 mph range. That's going to hurt the passing attack of both teams and means more running plays. Central Michigan ranks a respectable 56th versus the run. Ball State is a bend-but-not-break type of defense. You can move the ball on the Cardinals, but they don't give up many explosive plays. The Under has cashed the last six times Ball State has played at home.
|11-13-21||Nevada v. San Diego State OVER 45||21-23||Loss||-110||28 h 42 m||Show|
Granted San Diego State is the best defense Nevada has seen all season.
But the Wolf Pack are going to get their share of points with QB Carson Strong and his strong group of receiving targets. Nevada is averaging 40 points in its last six games. The Wolf Pack lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 36.4 points. Strong is fourth in the nation in passing yards with 3,197 yards. He's completed 70.5 percent of his passes.
San Diego State is going to hold up its end of the bargain, too, in getting this total Over.
The Aztecs are a top-40 rushing team. Lucas Johnson is an upgrade for them at QB replacing Jordon Brookshire. The Wolf Pack rank 102nd in pass defense. So they can't stack the line to key on the run without being vulnerable in their already weak secondary.
|11-13-21||NC State v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5||42-45||Loss||-110||28 h 33 m||Show|
Just because Wake Forest and North Carolina scored a combined 113 points in the Tar Heels' 58-55 win last week, doesn't mean the Demon Deacons are going to produce a ton of points this week.
That was a deflating loss for them halting their unbeaten season and now they draw a tough defensive foe in North Carolina State.
North Carolina managed just 23 points against Pittsburgh Thursday night. I expect Wake Forest's scoring will be down, too, from last week. North Carolina State ranks seventh in scoring defense giving up only 16 points a game. Only 17 teams give up fewer yards per game than the Wolfpack.
North Carolina State hasn't topped 28 points in its last two games against Louisville and Florida State. Those are both below defenses.
|11-13-21||South Alabama v. Appalachian State UNDER 52.5||Top||7-31||Win||100||23 h 53 m||Show|
South Alabama is without its starting QB Jake Bentley, who is out with a knee injury. That puts more pressure on the Jaguars' ground attack, which hasn't been good. The Jaguars rank 96th in rushing.
I don't expect South Alabama to score many points here. But the Jaguars do have a good defense. Only 16 teams give up fewer yards per game than South Alabama. The Jaguars are 21st in run defense. Appalachian State runs nearly 60 percent of the time.
The Mountaineers will be content to run clock not taking chances against this weak foe, especially considering the weather forecast. Heavy winds in the 16-28 mph range are being forecast. This is a huge plus for the Under.
|11-06-21||Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51||26-16||Win||100||34 h 34 m||Show|
This is a bitter rivalry game as these teams recruit hard against each other. So I'm expecting an intense, defensive-minded game. Washington has the top pass defense in the country. The Huskies rank 17th in scoring defense holding foes to 18.9. They've held their past three opponents, all Pac-12 teams, to an average of 17.6 points. This is the game where the Ducks really could miss their best runner, CJ Verdell. He's out for the season. Oregon has intercepted 11 passes and features the No. 1 defensive lineman in the country, Kayvon Thibodeaux. He's being projected as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Rain and heavy wind are in the forecast, which are two more huge pluses for the Under.
|11-06-21||Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57||Top||35-10||Win||100||96 h 11 m||Show|
Don't expect many points in this in-state rivalry matchup.
Not only are the offenses well below average, but so is the tempo. Both Kansas and Kansas State rank among the bottom 10 in pace.
Kansas State ranks 93rd in total yards and 77th in scoring at 27.5 points. This is in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference, too. The Wildcats are much better defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest yards and points allowed. They also have the 26th best rush defense, bad news for the Jayhawks.
Kansas averages a puny 15.8 points a game. The Jayhawks rank 120th in total yards. They are averaging 11.7 points in their last four games - all versus Big 12 foes.
|10-30-21||Arizona v. USC UNDER 56||34-41||Loss||-110||28 h 52 m||Show|
A game involving winless Arizona shouldn't have a total this high. The Wildcats rank 127th in scoring at a meager 14.3 points a game. The Under has cashed in Arizona's last three games, winning by an average of more than 10 points under the total.
The Wildcats, though, haven't quit on defense. They held Washington to seven points in the fourth quarter last week before losing, 21-16.
Mistake-prone USC is in disarray. The Trojans have an interim coach and morale issues. They are averaging 21 points their last two games, losses to Notre Dame and Utah.
USC QB Kedon Slovis entered this season highly-rated. But Slovis has put up mediocre numbers with a 9-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio.
|10-30-21||Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48||10-35||Win||100||25 h 43 m||Show|
Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points.Southern Mississippi rushes for only 2.5 yards a carry and its QB's have combined to throw 11 interceptions and just seven TD's. The Golden Eagles are second to last in the nation in yards per play. Middle Tennessee State is tied with Iowa for the most takeaways with 20. The Golden Eagles, though, are better defensively. Their defensive numbers are skewed by giving up 63 points to Alabama. Middle Tennessee State ranks 104th in yards gained. Weather could factor here, too. Rain is expected with winds in the 12-20 mph range.
|10-23-21||Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5||21-24||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
Don't be fooled by some of the skill position stars such as Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren and Tay Martin. Defense is going to dominate more than offense. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 surrendering 16.3 points and 251.3 yards. Oklahoma State will need to effectively run because its QB, Spencer Sanders, is such an inaccurate passer. The Cyclones rank 14th in rush defense holding foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Iowa State ranks 20th from the the bottom in tempo. The Cyclones play at a very leisurely pace. They are going to feed Hall the ball a lot. Oklahoma State ranks 15th in run defense. The Cowboys also hold foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Cowboys linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez leads the Big 12 in tackles.
|10-23-21||Kent State v. Ohio OVER 65.5||34-27||Loss||-113||97 h 43 m||Show|
These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored. There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games. A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed. The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points.
|10-16-21||Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5||Top||49-9||Win||100||26 h 16 m||Show|
Alabama put up 41 points on Mississippi State last year. The Crimson Tide are in the mood to run up a score after getting upset, 41-38, by Texas A&M last week. The Crimson Tide average 44.3 points per game. Only five teams score more per game. Not surprisingly, Mississippi State is all about passing under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in passing yards. Zach Calzada burned Alabama for nearly 300 passing yards and 3 TD throws last week. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is the second-most accurate passer in the country connecting on 75.7 percent of his throws. Rogers has thrown for 1,862 yards with a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. So the Bulldogs should put up their share of points.
|10-16-21||Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5||20-21||Win||100||16 h 8 m||Show|
These teams don't have strong defenses, but their offenses are terrible. Vanderbilt is last in the nation in scoring averaging 13.3 points in its six games. The Commodores are 121st in yards per game at 310.7. South Carolina ranks 108th in scoring at 22 points and is 112th in yards at 335. The Gamecocks also play at a very slow tempo. Vanderbilt passes more than South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks' defense strength is their secondary. They rank 12th in pass defense. Weather could factor, too, as there is a wind and a chance of rain.
|10-16-21||Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5||26-27||Win||100||56 h 5 m||Show|
Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Bobcats average just 19.3 points. They rank 119th in passing yards. The Bobcats are a running team, which eats clock. Buffalo ranks 95th in passing. The Bulls also like to run a lot. The Bulls' offense numbers are skewed because they opened the season scoring 69 points against Wagner, a non-Division I school. Another big key to the Under is weather. The forecast in Buffalo is for rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-35 mph range.
|10-09-21||New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5||Top||28-55||Win||100||30 h 59 m||Show|
Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies. The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening. The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico. The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind.
|10-09-21||Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5||35-25||Loss||-110||66 h 53 m||Show|
North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively. That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games. The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways.
|10-09-21||Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47||34-10||Win||100||22 h 15 m||Show|
Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry.
|10-02-21||Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48||21-28||Win||100||26 h 25 m||Show|
This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key. The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play.
|10-02-21||Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50||36-12||Win||100||105 h 13 m||Show|
Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards. UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo. Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of.
|10-02-21||Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64||29-52||Win||100||91 h 13 m||Show|
There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed. Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game. This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate.
|09-25-21||Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5||34-41||Win||100||28 h 11 m||Show|
Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers. Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins.
|09-25-21||Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5||Top||14-24||Win||100||30 h 27 m||Show|
Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games. The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury. Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1.
|09-23-21||Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5||Top||30-31||Win||100||77 h 32 m||Show|
The oddsmaker opened this total too low given the quality of QB's and Marshall's overrated defense. The Thundering Herd averages 43.7 points while playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in total yards and No. 3 in passing yards behind Grant Wells. Appalachian State is an above average offensive team. Chase Brice has looked good under center for the Mountaineers and Camerun Peoples is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. The Mountaineers are going against a Marshall defense that isn't as good as people thought after the Thundering Herd surrendered 42 points to East Carolina.
|09-18-21||Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5||21-20||Win||100||26 h 50 m||Show|
Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are. Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB. The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range.
|09-18-21||Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53||20-28||Win||100||24 h 21 m||Show|
Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses. Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years. Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns.
|09-18-21||Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5||21-27||Win||100||33 h 19 m||Show|
Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions. West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses.
|09-11-21||Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53.5||28-35||Win||100||122 h 50 m||Show|
Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet. The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage. Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky. Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons.
|09-11-21||South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5||22-19||Win||100||118 h 8 m||Show|
South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama. Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game. Both teams play at a slow pace, too.
|09-11-21||Buffalo v. Nebraska OVER 54.5||3-28||Loss||-110||24 h 42 m||Show|
I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses. The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7. Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros.
|09-06-21||Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76||Top||24-43||Win||100||16 h 52 m||Show|
The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected. I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now. Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago. The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under.