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A December game in Green Bay always means a first look at the weather. It is going to be cold, but sunny. So no problems there. 

The good news for the Packers is Jayden Reed is set to play for the first time since Week 2. This gives Jordan Love a rich assortment of wide receivers with Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and potentially Matthew Golden.

Chicago's secondary has gotten healthy. However, the Bears are still not at full strength at linebacker.

The bad news for Green Bay is that stud defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt is out for the season after suffering a broken ankle on Thanksgiving. Next to Micah Parsons, Wyatt was the most valuable player on the Packers defense because of his run-stuffing ability.

Ben Johnson has done a masterful job turning the Bears' offense into a power attack. Chicago's offensive linemen are better run blockers than pass blockers and D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are an effective outside/inside running back combo. They can put the Bears in favorable second and third down situations making things easier for Caleb Williams to pick his spots. 

Slowly but surely the Buccaneers are getting back to full strength on offense. Mike Evans won't be ready this week, but Tampa Bay's top running back Bucky Irving returned last week and looked good. Chris Godwin is getting closer to being his reliable self having returned several weeks ago.

All of this is added firepower for Baker Mayfield, who entered this week tied for seventh in touchdown passes with 19 and ranked 11th in passer ratings.

This is the lowest total on a Tampa Bay game this season. It is set too low because the Saints should be able to contribute their share of the scoring.

Rookie Tyler Shough is averaging 45 passes in the last two games. This will be his fifth NFL start. He has shown improvement. Tampa Bay gives up the sixth-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards.

Devaughn Vele had a breakout game against the Dolphins last week catching eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. Shough also has reliable targets in Chris Olave and underrated tight end Juwan Johnson.

The bar is set low with this total. 

This is a buy-low spot on these offenses playing on a fast track with a low total.

The Chargers were idle last week following their worst offensive game of the season. Before losing to the Jaguars, 35-6, the Chargers had averaged 28.4 points in their last five games. Justin Herbert is facing a Raiders defense that permits an average of 25.2 points per game.

Herbert is playing behind a makeshift offensive line, but Jim Harbaugh has had two weeks to figure out how to get Herbert more time to throw whether it's bootlegs or quick passes.

I'm looking for the same from the Raiders, who got rid of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly this past week. Kelly and the Raiders were not a good fit. Look for new offensive coordinator Greg Olson to do a better job of getting Ashton Jeanty in space.

Geno Smith is not as bad as he has looked this season. Having a healthy Brock Bowers and utilizing Jeanty more effectively will help.

There are three main factors why I like the Under here: Western Michigan's strong defense, Eastern Michigan's inept offense and the Broncos controlling clock with their heavy run attack.

Western Michigan has averaged fewer than 12 passes per game during its last two games. The Broncos certainly are going to stay heavy run-oriented since the Eagles give up the most yards on the ground per game in the country. Despite that Eastern Michigan has been stingy giving up points in its last two games holding Ball State to nine points and Bowling Green to 21 points.

The Broncos give up the 13th fewest yards in the country and rank 21st in scoring defense yielding only 20.3 points per game.

The weather is another plus for the Under. The forecast is for rain during the day. It should stop by the evening, but the wind will be blowing at 10-to-15 mph.

I find this total too low given all the skill position weapons and the offensive acumen of the head coaches.

I get that J.J. McCarthy is looking like a major disappointment. But he has a very strong support system with a deep set of receivers and two good running backs, Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. Green Bay has given up an average of 138.7 yards rushing during its past three games. Minnesota should be able to put McCarthy in situations where he can succeed.

Center Ryan Kelly is expected to return here for the Vikings. He had missed the past six games. That would be a big boost to their offensive line. The Packers are likely to be without their leading tackler, injured linebacker Quay Walker.

Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur have had a couple weeks now to adjust to life without star tight end Tucker Kraft. I expect the Packers to throw more than usual given that Josh Jacobs may not play because of a knee injury. Love can put up fantastic numbers because the Packers are deep at receiver, too, if he throws more.

No weather problems either. The forecast is for 50-degree weather with no rain and very little wind.

This total is so low it reminds me of a preseason game rather than a Week 12 matchup. The Titans are a problem when it comes to Overs. But Seattle can do a lot of the heavy lifting when it comes to getting this total Over.

There's a huge defensive class difference for the Seahawks going from the Rams to the Titans. Sam Darnold plays great against weak competition. He has the NFL's receiving leader, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kenneth Walker III is due for a breakout performance, too.

There is room for optimism the Titans will produce their share of points to get this total Over. Cam Ward is improving. He has been sacked a league-most 41 times. However, the Seahawks failed to sack Matthew Stafford last week. Ward is much more mobile.

I'm not a big fan of Titans' interim coach, Mike McCoy. But he's an upgrade on overmatched fired coach, Brian Callahan. The Titans had the worst play selection in the league when Callahan was calling plays.

Given today's rules and how they are skewed for the offense, this is a low bar to clear.

It is back to the pumpkin patch for Daniel Jones facing the Chiefs' fourth-ranked defense on the road in a tough outdoor venue. Only three teams are giving up fewer than the 18.1 points per game the Chiefs allow.

Kansas City relies more on its defense because its offense, while good, has not been great. Patrick Mahomes has been missing passes he normally connects and he won't have his top running back, injured Isiah Pacheco.

Think field goals, not touchdowns, in this matchup and that's not enough to clear a total this high. 

The total has come down in this matchup and for good reason. Air Force lost its emerging star quarterback, Liam Szarka, to an arm injury in the second quarter of its 26-16 loss to Connecticut last Saturday. Not only was Szarka an outstanding runner, but he was that rare Air Force quarterback who posed a threat through the air.

The Falcons will be going back to being heavily run-oriented now with converted fullback Kemper Hodges behind center. New Mexico's defensive strength is its 17th-ranked run defense.

The Lobos could only manage 20 points against Colorado State last week in a 20-17 victory as a 16-point home favorite. Air Force only has given up an average of 20.7 points during its last four games.

I like that the Eagles only scored 10 points against the Packers in last Monday's game and that three-time Pro Bowl receiver is justifiably complaining that he was targeted just three times against Green Bay.

I also like super aggressive Dan Campbell taking over the play-calling for the Lions. It frees up explosive Jameson Williams.

I see these as all pluses for the Over.

There are offensive studs all over each team and the rules are skewed in their favor. Even a lucky bungler such as Nick Sirianni has to grasp that he has to turn his weapons loose after last Monday's near debacle.

The weather is going to cooperate. That's a huge plus for Jared Goff, who has my road confidence now having set an NFL record by completing 70% or more of his passes in eight straight away games.

There's no better offensive balanced team than the Lions, who are the only team in NFL history with at least 21 passing touchdowns, 13 rushing scores and six or fewer turnovers through the first nine games of a season. 

I will oblige and take the Under.

My three main factors are weather, the Bengals' vulnerable offensive line and the Steelers' toothless attack.

The forecast is for heavy wind in the 15-to-30 mph range. That kind of wind can impact throws and kicks.

Pittsburgh's defensive line still packs a punch. The Steelers rank second in pass-rush win rate, ninth in pressure percentage and ninth in sacks per pass attempt.

The matchup features the least two mobile starting quarterbacks in the league, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers. The Bengals’ OL ranks 29th in pass-block win rate and 29th in pressure percentage given up. Flacco is going to be under duress here.

Cincinnati's defense is bad. However, the Bengals just saw the Steelers three weeks ago and were idle last week giving them two weeks of game film preparation. Certainly the bar is not high here for the Bengals' defense.

Rogers is nothing more than a glorified game manager in his dotage. He still hasn't reached 250 passing yards.  DK Metcalf is a terrible fit for Pittsburgh's offense. He's a deep threat wasted. Metcalf only has averaged 36.5 receiving yard average in Pittsburgh’s last four games.

So I'm taking the plunge and going Under.

Bad weather, lackluster offenses, solid defenses and slow tempo all factor in making this an Under play. 

Michigan surrenders the 13th-fewest points in the nation at 17.2. Northwestern hasn't broken the 22-point barrier in its last four games. The Wildcats rank 111th in scoring at 21.9. 

The Wildcats do give up fewer than 20 points per game and the Wolverines have a well below average passing attack. 

Neither team is explosive and there is going to be heavy wind in Chicago for this matchup with winds in the 15-to-30 mph range.

The bar is not set high for Eastern Michigan's defense here. Ball State ranks in the bottom-10 in many major offensive categories. The Cardinals are averaging 16.4 points a game. 

Ball State's defense is better than its offense. The Cardinals have surrendered 20.6 points a game during their last three games. 

Eastern Michigan ranks 90th in scoring and 80th in total yards. 

Making it worse for the offenses is there is a weather factor. The forecast is for heavy wind.

Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua get all the attention for the Rams. It's understandable. They are great players. But lost in all this adulation is a Rams defense that is holding foes to 15.9 points per game, which is second-best in the NFL.

The Rams have held their last three opponents - Saints, Jaguars and Ravens - to a combined 20 points.

Now LA gets the 49ers in a revenge spot where San Francisco has to go with backup quarterback Mac Jones again.  Jones hasn’t thrown for more than 235 yards since Week 6. He didn’t even attempt a single downfield pass in last Sunday’s win against the Giants and their vulnerable secondary. San Francisco remains minus its two best wide receivers, Ricky Pearsall and Brandon Aiyuk.

The 49ers do have the offensive personnel to effectively play ball control with a conservative game plan to keep the ball out of Stafford's hands.

San Francisco is banged-up defensively. However, the 49ers have good defensive depth and are extremely well coached. They are quite familiar with Stafford.

Note, too, this game is being played at Levi's Stadium, which is a grass field. This is not what the Rams are used to.

Rarely in its school history has Wisconsin had a good quarterback. The Badgers are not getting good quarterback play again this season, which is putting it kindly. But the Badgers also have lost their traditional feared running game under Luke Fickell.

Wisconsin's offensive stats are mind-boggling bad: Last in the nation in yards per game and third-from-the bottom in points per game at 12.5. The Badgers are averaging fewer than seven points a game if you go by their last four games.

The Badgers do rank 25th in run defense.

Washington is averaging 15.5 points in its two Big Ten road games playing Michigan and Maryland.

Both teams play at a slow tempo. There could be some weather issues, too. The forecast is for 50% possibility of rain and winds in the 10-to-15 mph range.

An improved offensive line, Sam Darnold proving he is for real and Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging as a superstar have turned Seattle into a very strong offensive team. The Seahawks are sixth in scoring at 27.6 points a game, third in yards per play and eighth in passing yards. Smith-Njigba is on pace for 1,989 receiving yards. The NFL record is 1,964 by Calvin Johnson in 2012.

Washington's defense isn't strong enough to slow down the Seahawks.

If you discount holding the Chargers to 10 points, the Commanders are giving up an average of 30.3 points a game in their last six games.

Seattle could throw a few new wrinkles at Washington, too, coming off its bye week.

The Commanders are not going to be held down with a fresh Jayden Daniels, who has recovered from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the last game. Daniel's is the biggest dual threat in the NFC. He has accounted for nine touchdowns and only one interception in five games this season.

Daniels' alone elevates Washington's offense into respectability, if not more.

The Broncos have the most overrated defense in the NFL. It is good, but not the dominant unit some perceive. The Giants behind rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart put up 32 points against the Broncos. The Colts scored 29 points and produced 473 yards against Denver.

And that came with last year's Defensive Player of the Year cornerback Patrick Surtain in the lineup. Surtain is out now with a pectoral injury.

Houston has gotten healthy at wide receiver with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk back. The Texans have excellent wide receiving depth and have been protecting C.J. Stroud well. Stroud has only been sacked seven times during the past four games. Houston is averaging 28.7 points during its last four games.

Denver coach Sean Payton has done a great job developing Bo Nix. The Broncos rank in the top-10 in both points and yards per game. 

The Commanders are going to have to play well offensively because they aren't going to be able to keep up with the high-powered Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes is back performing at his normal MVP level. The Chiefs' offense is really starting to click the past four games averaging 31.5 pts. Kansas City's offense is only going to get better, too, as emerging star wide receiver Rasheed Rice gets fully indoctrinated after returning from suspension last week.  

The Chiefs piled up 31 points through their first five drives against Raiders last week before putting the brakes on with the game already out of hand at that point.

Washington ranks 26th in total defense and pass defense. The Commanders have surrendered 24 or more points in five of their last six games and they just placed their top pass rusher, Dorance Armstrong, on injured reserve because of a knee injury. Armstrong leads the Commanders in sacks and pressures.

The Commanders have come up with only two takeaways. The Chiefs have turned the ball over just twice, lowest in the NFL. So don't look for the Chiefs to have a turnover-filled game.

Even without Jaden Daniels, the Commanders have enough weapons around veteran quarterback Marcus Mariota with their two best wide receivers, Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel, both set to return after being out with injuries. Mariota has the necessary mobility and experience to be able to keep Washington in the game against a strong defense in a tough road environment.

This is an entertaining rivalry where plenty of points are scored. That certainly was the case last season when the two teams averaged a combined 62 points during their two meetings.

Tampa Bay has wide receiver injuries, but the Buccaneers' offense schemes well and Baker Mayfield has greatly benefited from it becoming one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL.

During their last five games, the Buccaneers have scored 38 points against Seattle on the road, 30 points against the 49ers, 29 points against the Jets and 25 points against the Eagles. All of those teams have better defenses than New Orleans. The Saints rank 27th defensively giving up 26.6 points a game.

The Saints should do their part in contributing to this total going Over. Big-play wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed can burn a Tampa Bay secondary that has permitted the NFL's eighth-highest completion rate and sixth-most yards per pass attempt. Spencer Rattler had thrown only one interception all season until throwing three against the Bears in bad weather last Sunday.

The setting is completely different now for the Saints back home in their temperature-controlled dome. 

Wisconsin's Billy Edwards Jr. was a lower-tier Big Ten quarterback. But without the injured Edwards, Wisconsin's offense has totally fallen apart. The Badgers are averaging a puny 6.8 points per game during their last five games.

I don't see the Badgers doing anything against an athletic Oregon defense that gives up the seventh-fewest points and sixth-fewest yards per game.

The Badgers are more respectable defensively ranking 18th against the run and 47th in total defense.

There also is a weather factor here with the forecast calling for an 80 percent chance of rain and winds in the 10-20 mph range.

The Saints have played outdoors twice this season. They scored 13 points at Seattle and 19 points at Buffalo in those games. Now New Orleans is playing at another tough outdoor venue where weather is a factor with possible rain and wind in the 15-20 mph range.

I don't trust, or like, Spencer Rattler even in a temperature controlled climate. I expect the Saints to run the ball a lot even with Alvin Kamara limited by an ankle injury.

Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen is well acquainted with the Saints and their limitations having been New Orleans' former head coach.

The Saints rank a respectable 18th in total defense. Chicago's offense has improved under new coach Ben Johnson, but Caleb Williams still doesn't get enough clean pockets. 

First of all the weather could factor. There is a 50 percent chance of rain and wind up to 20 mph.

The Rams defense is respectable, ranking 10th in fewest yards allowed and 13th in scoring defense. They are facing a backup quarterback, Cooper Rush, who is far more game manager than gunslinger. LA has several pass rushers who can bother Rush. Baltimore's offense goes from dynamic to dull with Rush replacing injured Lamar Jackson.

I see the Ravens running Derrick Henry a lot here, which is going to eat clock.

The Ravens have horrible defensive numbers. However, they have had a ton of injuries on that side of the ball. This week they get two key defenders back, safety Kyle Hamilton and cornerback Marlon Humphrey. 

Both of these offenses have been extremely disappointing.

South Carolina is averaging fewer than 25 points a game. That average would be even worse, but the Gamecocks have come up with some big defensive/ special teams plays to set up their offense. That's not something that can be counted on to continue.

South Carolina's defense, though, ranks 34th surrendering fewer than 19 points per game.

LSU's defense has played much better than its offense. The Tigers rank 7th defensively permitting just 12.2 points per game. The Tigers are 119th in rushing and their passing attack has not met preseason expectations.

The Tigers have played four Division One opponents. The combined point total in those games is 27 points against Clemson, 30 points versus Louisiana Tech, 30 points against Florida and 43 points against Mississippi. 

Cooper Rush is a decent backup quarterback and he is surrounded by excellent weapons. One of these is  Derrick Henry. The Texans have to respect Henry so they aren't going to be able to tee off on Rush.

Houston's disappointing offense finally showed some life last week putting up 26 points against the Titans. Yes, the Titans are hapless. Statistically, though, it is Baltimore that has the worst defense in the NFL.

The Ravens give up 33.3 pts a game, most in the NFL. They also allow the second most yards per game. And now their defense is nearly decimated!

Among seven starters down for the Ravens are defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike and linebacker Roquan Smith, two of the best players in the league at their respective positions. The Texans' offensive line has had four games now to get into sync. Rookie Woody Marks is showing signs of becoming Houston's best running back. Certainly he's a threat as a pass catcher out of the backfield.

I get that both Tennessee and Houston have looked bad offensively - very bad. But such a low total wouldn't even hold up in preseason.

Positive regression is due. I see it occurring here.

The Texans run defense is mediocre. Tony Pollard can keep the chains moving. This would put Cam Ward in favorable passing situations, something he rarely has been in because of the Titans' horrendous play calling from their overmatched head coach, Brian Callahan.

Callahan made the obvious decision to turn over the play-calling. This will be the first game quarterback coach Bo Hardegree calls the plays for the Titans. He can't help but be a major improvement on Callahan.

I will never forget Callahan's brutal play-calling in a game last year when the Titans had first and goal from the one-yard line. I was fully expecting Pollard to get a couple of carries. Nope. Callahan called four straight passes - and this was with Will Levis as his quarterback. Needless to say, the Titans didn't score.

CJ Stroud is off to a slow start, plagued by offensive line woes. This is a get-right game at home for him against a defense giving up 31.3 points a game. Nico Collins should feast here. 

Points will not be hard to come by here. Florida State ranks first in the nation in scoring and yards. True the Seminoles have played two cupcakes, but they also put up 31 points against Alabama.

Virginia's defense is a huge step down from Alabama's. The Cavaliers rank 74th in pass defense and North Carolina State ran for more than 200 yards against them.  

Dual-threat quarterback Tommy Castellanos is the centerpiece of a well-balanced Florida State attack.

Virginia is no slouch offensively either ranking fifth in yards and 11th in scoring. The Cavaliers and USC are the only two FBS teams with at least 1,000 yards rushing and more than 1,200 yards passing. Well seasoned Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris has three receivers  who already have 1,000 career yards.

The Cavaliers' offensive line has protected Morris well, too, as he has been sacked only once in four games.

Two good quarterbacks. Two bad defenses. A reasonable total. Add it together and it puts me on the Over. 

NC State has the ACC's leading rusher, Hollywood Smothers, to go with quarterback CJ Bailey. The Wolfpack are averaging 31 points a game. 

Duke is giving up 32 points a game and has trouble stopping the run and pass. Opposing quarterbacks have completed nearly 68% of their throws against the Blue Devils. 

Darian Mensah gives Duke a very good quarterback, though. NC State ranks 131st in pass defense. The Blue Devils play at a fast pace, which is another plus for the Over.

Troy's starting quarterback, Goose Crowder, suffered a shoulder injury for the second consecutive season. Crowder is a mediocre quarterback, but he's the best that Troy has.

The Trojans are going to need to effectively run the ball and that's going to be tough to do against a Buffalo defense that ranks 37th in the country in run defense. The Bulls are giving up fewer than 20 points per game.

Troy has faced far more talented offenses going against Clemson and Memphis. Neither of whom were able to score more than 28 points against the Trojans.

Both teams are ground-oriented, which is going to run clock. That's good for the under.

All the pieces are there for Jacksonville to have a dynamite offense now that offensive guru Liam Coen is running things. I'm looking for the Jaguars to have a productive game against a weak Bengals defense.

The Bengals usually start slow. Sure enough they had a bad game against the Browns opening week and probably should have lost. Now Cincinnati is stepping down in defensive class going from Cleveland to Jacksonville.

Joe Burrow looked great in training camp. He is going to light up a vulnerable Jaguars defense. 

Texas State's GJ Kinne and Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham are among the five youngest coaches in the country. They also are among the sharpest offensive minds.

The Bobcats have scored 95 points in two games this season. They have been balanced on offense averaging 280 yards per game on the ground and 250 through the air. However, their defense is extremely weak having allowed a combined 63 points to Eastern Michigan and UT-San Antonio. The Bobcats are giving up an average of 427.5 yards per game.

The Sun Devils have the offense to take advantage. I expect quarterback Sam Leavitt to be far sharper than he was against Mississippi State last week. Not only is Leavitt one of the best QBs in the country, but he has a top-three wide receiver in Jordyn Tyson. ASU is going from playing an SEC opponent to a Sun Belt Conference foe.

No one is calling Geno Smith an elite quarterback. But given two tremendous weapons in Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, Smith is going to produce points for the Raiders especially in an up-tempo offense coordinated by Chip Kelly.

Maxx Crosby is a handful. Aside from him, though, the Raiders defense is below par.

This matchup should be the first of many shootouts the Raiders are going to go through this season.

Drake Maye is a star on the rise for the Patriots. He has more weapons, too, this season with the additions of Stefon Diggs in free agency and rookie TreVeyon Henderson.  

Josh McDaniels is best served as an offensive coordinator. He's back with the Patriots in that capacity and knows the Raiders extremely well having been their former head coach. So look for the Patriots to have a good offensive game plan. The bar is set not very high given the low quality of the Raiders defense.

Navy has averaged 36 points per game the past two seasons playing UAB. The Midshipmen won those games easily. Navy is going to get its points again this season, but the Blazers also have enough firepower to contribute their share in getting this total Over.

UAB opened its season with a 52-42 win against Alabama State, piling up more than 500 yards of total offense. Jevon Jackson, a transfer from UTEP, looked great rushing for 166 yards and two TDs on 17 carries. Coached by former NFL quarterback Trent Dilfer, Blazers QB Jalen Kitna should be one of the better quarterbacks in the American Conference. He had a good day, too, against Alabama State.

Navy's Blake Horvath is the best quarterback in the conference and Eli Heidenreich could be the best combination of RB/WR in the league.

The Midshipmen opened their season in excellent offensive form with a 52-7 win against VMI while gaining 556 yards.

I'm expecting more than 60 points to be scored here so I'm going Over.

The Cowboys defense wasn't good to begin with and now they no longer have their best defensive player, Micah Parsons. Newly acquired nose tackle Kenny Clark is solid, but he is on the downside of his career. He's not going to turn around a Dallas run defense that ranked in the bottom-five in rushing yards per carry and rushing yards per game.

Saquon Barkley is going to have a big game and if the Cowboys try to load the box on him, Jalen Hurts is going to hurt them through the air.

The Eagles averaged 37.5 points against Dallas last year.

Fortunately for the Cowboys they have an offense that can trade points against any opponent with a healthy Dak Prescott, an above average offensive line and George Pickens joining CeeDee Lamb to give Dallas one of the strongest receiving tandems in the league. 

These are the two best defenses in the country with the numbers to prove it.

Ohio State gave up the fewest points, total yards, yards per play and also was No. 1 in pass defense. Oregon was the only team to score more than 17 points on the Buckeyes. Ohio State has permitted an average of only 13 points during its last nine games, while going against Tennessee, Texas, Oregon and Penn State during this span. 

Notre Dame's offensive line has been banged-up. The Buckeyes have two potential first-round choices in their defensive line with Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau. 

The Irish have the No. 2 scoring defense in the nation. They rank 12th in pass defense and have 19 takeaways, which was the fifth-highest. Benjamin Morrison is in the discussion for best cornerback in college football. 

Notre Dame has given up 14 or fewer points in seven of its last 10 games.

Neither quarterback, Will Howard nor Riley Leonard, is a downfield gunslinging threat.

These teams put up a combined 63 points in their first meeting this season. That was back on opening week in Brazil. I'm not expecting anything close to that this time around.

The Eagles improved themselves to the point where they could be the best defense in the NFL. Philadelphia gave up the fewest yards per game, ranked No. 1 in pass defense and second in scoring defense holding foes to 17.8 points a game. The Eagles gave up fewer than 21 points in eight of their last nine games.

Jordan Love may not be 100 percent because of a sore elbow. He'll be without his top deep threat and best bubble sweep runner, Christian Watson.

Only two teams played at a slower tempo than Green Bay. I envision the Packers playing a conservative game running Josh Jacobs plenty of times mixed in with short passes.

Jalen Hurts received concussion clearance as expected after sitting out the past two games. What's not good news for the Eagles is Hurts has completed one pass in his last three games. He figures to be rusty. You have to wonder if the Eagles will still employ their highly effective tush push so often with Hurts now?

The Eagles play at the eighth-slowest pace in the league.

Green Bay has invested many high draft choices on defense. Now the Packers are better coached defensively with Jeff Hafley replacing Joe Barry as defensive coordinator. The Packers were fifth in fewest yards allowed, sixth in scoring defense and seventh in run defense. They also had the third-most takeaways.

You have to give the devil his due. Baker Mayfield has put together another great season. Led by Mayfield, the Buccaneers have become an offensive juggernaut ranking in the top-four in scoring, total yards, passing yards and rushing yards.

Tampa Bay has scored 30 points or more in half of its games. This includes a wild, 51-27, win against the Saints.

New Orleans isn't going to stop the Buccaneers this time around either. The Saints rank 30th in yards allowed and run defense.

The Buccaneers are going for an NFC South Division crown. They are not going to let up. Mayfield is going to do his best to see that Mike Evans reaches his incentive clauses in his contract no matter how many points the Buccaneers are leading by.

Spencer Rattler has gotten more experience since that 51-27 loss, which was his first NFL start. The Buccaneers rank 29th in pass defense and have only seven takeaways. Their defense is way down from past seasons.

Notre Dame has one of the top defenses in the country and draw Georgia backup quarterback Gunner Stockton, who is untested. Carson Beck is out with an elbow injury.

The Bulldogs still have tremendous talent on defense, but their skill position talent is down this season particularly at running back. Georgia ranks 99th in rushing.

Defensively, though, Georgia has three potential first-round picks that all could go in the top 15 if they declare for the draft - Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Malaki Starks.

Notre Dame plays at a slow tempo and will be keeping the ball on the ground. That's going to take a lot of time off the clock.

It's not enough that the 49ers are without Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams and possibly down to their fourth-string tailback. But now the injury-riddled 49ers are scrambling to put together a cohesive offensive line. The left side of their offensive line is down to third-stringers.

If the 49ers are going to make a long-term commitment to Brock Purdy they may consider sitting him out, or at least reducing his playing time. The Lions have plenty of defensive injuries, but they also have defensive line depth, excellent safeties and are well-coached. San Francisco is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention.

San Francisco isn't as banged-up defensively. The Lions won't need this game if the Vikings beat the Packers. If that were to happen, the Lions could dial down their attack not wanting to show much. A vanilla Detroit attack would have a more difficult time reaching this high of a total. Don't forget the 49ers held the Rams without a touchdown in a 12-6 loss at home just two weeks ago.

Bad weather is the forecast for this game - wind and steady rain. That's not a plus for Jayden Daniels, who makes fantastic plays because of his mobility.

The Falcons have become an Under team going below the total in six of their last seven games. Atlanta has improved its pass rush recording 16 sacks in its last four games after getting only 10 during its first 11 games.

This will be Michael Penix's first NFL road start. Expect a conservative game plan from the Falcons with lots of inside running plays.

Washington has held its last two non-elite offensive opponents, Saints and Titans, below 20 points. The Commanders' defense gets a boost with the return of two-time Pro bowl lineman Jonathan Allen.

Let's get the weather concerns out first. There is going to be rain. But light wind and the temperatures in the 40's.

It's a difficult travel spot for Minnesota. The Vikings have been humming, though, averaging 29.6 points during their last five games. They rank in the top-10 in points and passing.

Sam Darnold is having a career year in part because of excellent receiving targets. One Vikings' wide receiver has 30 catches for 473 yards and five touchdowns in his last five games - and it's not Justin Jefferson. It's Jordan Addison, who is having his breakout season.

Darnold not only has Jefferson, who draws a lot of double-team coverage, but Addison, a fully healthy now T.J. Hockenson and reliable pass-catching Aaron Jones out of the backfield.

Seattle's defense has improved, but it's middle-of-the-road.

The Seahawks have the league's No. 5 passing attack. Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet are all expected to play. So Smith has plenty of firepower, too, given the emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to go with DK Metcalf.

Indiana averages 43.3 points a game, which is the second-highest in the country. Only Oregon was better in the Big Ten Conference on third downs. The Hooisers had just eight turnovers all season, third-fewest in the nation.

Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti is an offensive guru. He has the right quarterback to operate his system in Kurtis Rourke, a rhythm passer who has five good receiving targets.

I have a red flag about Notre Dame's defense after the Irish surrendered 35 points, 559 yards and 29 first downs to USC in a 49-35 victory in their last game. USC QB Jayden Maiava had a big game with 360 yards passing and three TD throws against the Irish. I like Rourke more than Maiava.

But Notre Dame is favored for good reason. The Irish have a balanced attack. They have a physical offensive line that can dominate the line of scrimmage against Indiana's defensive front. Cignetti isn't going to sell out to stop the run like he did against Ohio State. That turned out to be a disaster in a 38-15 road loss to the Buckeyes. Indiana just doesn't have a strong enough defense to control Notre Dame.

Losing star players to opt outs and the transfer portal is a sad reality to handicapping bowl games nowadays.

In the case of West Virginia in this Frisco Bowl that also means a coaching change as Neal Brown was fired. Rich Rodriguez will take over next season. That leaves Chad Scott as the interim coach for this game. He's the Mountaineers' offensive coordinator.

The Mountaineers' transfer portal losses mainly came on defense. They will be short on cornerbacks and won't have their star linebacker, Josiah Trotter. Even with a full deck on defense, West Virginia gave up more than 36 points a game during their past six games.

Memphis certainly has the offense to take advantage behind four-year starting QB Seth Henigan, who has thrown for nearly 14,000 yards and 102 touchdowns during his career. West Virginia ranks eighth-from-the-bottom in pass defense.

I don't trust Memphis' defense, though. The Tigers surrendered 56 points to Navy, 44 to North Texas and 44 to Texas San Antonio. They rank 115th in pass defense.

West Virginia has scored at least 31 points in four of its last five games.

Bills-Lions in a dome certainly has the makings of a high-scoring game. But when you get an NFL total this high a lot has to go right for an Over to cash. That means anything less than touchdowns scored on drives is a win for the Under.

The Bills just got through losing, 44-42, to the Rams. Then this past Thursday against the 49ers, Los Angeles managed only 12 points and didn't score a TD in a 12-6 win. Of course I'm not expecting a similar type score here. But I do believe this one falls short of reaching the mid-50's.

The two defenses are underrated enough for that to happen.

Only seven teams give up fewer points per game than Buffalo, which has held opponents to 20.6 a game. That's after surrendering 44 points to the Rams, too. The Bills rank ninth in pass defense and have the sixth-most takeaways.

The Lions permit only 18 points a game, which is third-fewest in the NFL. They also rank fifth in run defense and have come up with the fourth-most takeaways.

Za'Darius Smith has been a huge addition replacing injured superstar Aidan Hutchinson. The veteran Smith has three sacks and 20 quarterback pressures in four games with the Lions. Detroit has arguably the best safety tandem in the league with Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch. According to Pro Football Focus grades, Joseph is the No. 1 safety in the NFL and Branch grades fifth.

The Lions also shored up their secondary depth adding veteran Jamal Adams, who was a versatile star at safety just a couple of seasons ago before sustaining repeated injuries. Adams is healthy now and has been added to the roster.

The 49ers' offense is a shell of what it could be with Brock Purdy dealing with a sore arm, Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams out, reliable wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk out and their two top running backs, Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason, both sidelined, too.

Chicago's defense is respectable. The Bears held the Packers, Commanders and Rams all under 21 points. They also yielded just 23 points to the Lions, who lead the NFL in scoring at 32.1 points a game. 

The Bears haven't broken the 20-point barrier in any of their five road games. Chicago is averaging 14.6 points in its five road contests. The Bears also might be down their top receiver as D.J. Moore is questionable. 

Chicago just fired Matt Eberflus. Good for them. But they named Thomas Brown interim head coach. Brown had just recently been elevated to offensive coordinator. Now he's responsible for the entire team. So details to Chicago's offense may get neglected this week, especially on a long road trip. 

The 49ers are going to play with maximum intensity. They will be conservative, too, relying on third-string rookie running back Isaac Guerendo. 

So I see a low-scoring game. 

Two bottom feeding AFC South Division teams with nothing going should ensure a loose game.

Tennessee's defense has good statistics. But the Titans don't play to those numbers. They are not a sound defense surrendering an average of 31.7 points in their last seven games. 

Mac Jones engineered two touchdown drives while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt against a respectable Texans defense after replacing injured Trevor Lawrence last week. 

Will Levis is an improving quarterback. He has tossed seven touchdown passes in his last four games while compiling a 101.4 passer rating and 8.4 yards per attempt during this span.

The Titans have a number of defensive players hurt. The Jaguars could be minus their top cornerback, Tyson Campbell. He has a thigh injury. 

If the weather forecast for this matchup holds true, it's going to make last Thursday's Steelers-Browns snow game seem like a warm day in Hawaii. 

A winter storm watch with more than a half-foot of snow, 30 mph winds and a will chill factor near single digits is what is being predicted. 

That's not good for Brock Purdy ... if he even plays after missing last week due to a sore right shoulder. 49ers backup QB Brandon Allen is a stiff, who isn't 100 percent either.

Aside from George Kittle, the 49ers' major weapons have been either disappointing or out for the season. Christian McCaffrey has done nothing since returning three games ago. He's averaged less than 50 yards rushing a game and has yet to score a touchdown. Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams remains out.

The Bills give up fewer than 20 points per game and could get back their best linebacker, Matt Milano. 

The Bills have become far more run-oriented this season. That certainly should be the case for this matchup given the weather conditions and that Josh Allen again could be down two of his four best receivers. Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out and Keon Coleman is questionable.

Among the many things Jim Harbaugh has done in upgrading the Chargers this season is getting a career year from Justin Herbert in terms of all-around play.

Look for Herbert to have a big performance against a Falcons defense that ranks 26th in pass defense and has an NFL-low 10 sacks. By comparison, the next lowest team in sacks is Carolina with 17. On top of this, the Falcons went into their bye with a cluster injury problem in their secondary. It's far from a given they will have some of these defensive backs available.

The Chargers have great defensive numbers. But their defense is not dominant because it can't stop explosive offenses. The Chargers built their defensive numbers going against six bad/backup type quarterbacks.

But when the Chargers met the Ravens and Bengals during the last two weeks, they surrendered 30 and 27 points.

The Falcons are in the middle. Not as explosive as the Ravens and Bengals, but Kirk Cousins is a major upgrade on these quarterbacks the Chargers have been fortunate to face: Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis.

The Falcons should have a good game plan having had an extra week to prepare. The time off should allow underrated Darnell Mooney to be able to play, joining Cousins' other weapons Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

Not only is this a rivalry game, but the stakes are huge because the winner becomes bowl eligible while the season is finished for the loser. That should provide for maximum intensity.

This is the lowest total on a Virginia game all season. It's justified. The Cavaliers' attack has regressed. Virginia is averaging 14.7 points in its last four games.

Virginia Tech has quarterback issues. Because of injuries to Kyron Drones and backup Collin Schlee, the Hokies could be forced to start third-string freshman Pop Watson. That would mark Watson's first college start. He was not accurate passing when forced into action in last week's road loss to Duke.

The Hokies' best weapon could be Peter Moore, who is one the best punters in the country.

Given how explosive Detroit's offense is, especially at home on carpet inside a dome, and the Bears' offensive improvement, this total is too low. 

Caleb Williams has shown vast improvement since Thomas Brown replaced ineffective Shane Waldron as the Bear's offensive coordinator. Brown has played to Williams' strengths and the results have shown the past two weeks.

The Bears produced 19 points, 391 yards and 23 first down against the Packers two weeks ago. Chicago followed that up by scoring 27 points, gaining 398 yards and 20 first downs against the Vikings last week. 

Chicago will need to take chances and be aggressive offensively because it won't be able to contain a balanced Detroit offense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points and is No. 2 in total yards. 

The Lions are averaging a mind-blowing 48.6 points in their last three home games. Dan Campbell will be anxious to put on a show for this annual Thanksgiving Day game. 

It's taken a while, but the Eagles have bought into defensive mastermind Vic Fangio scheme. That's been the history during Fangio's first year with a new team.

The Eagles now rank first in fewest yards allowed and are No. 2 in pass defense. Philadelphia has yielded only 13.8 points per game during its past six games. During this six-game span, the Eagles are allowing just 209.7 yards per game.

The Rams managed only 15 points against the Dolphins in their previous home game two weeks ago. The Eagles' defense is superior to Miami's defense.

Los Angeles has held its last eight opponents to 24 points or fewer. The Eagles will be without their No. 2 wide receiver, DeVonta Smith. He's out with a hamstring injury. There's a big drop-off from Smith to the Eagles' next best receiver.

Because Tua Tagovailoa missed four games due to a concussion, you can toss out Miami's season statistics. The Dolphins without Tagovailoa were terrible. They are explosive with him, one of the better offenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging 27.7 points since Tagovailoa returned four games ago. They are eighth in expected points during this time frame.

New England has gotten better offensively and worse defensively. If you discount holding the punchless Bears to three points, the Patriots have surrendered an average of 28.6 points in their last five games. New England is below average in all of the major defensive categories.

Drake Maye, though, keeps getting better. He completed 30-of-40 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams last week. The Dolphins have an average defense, far from dominant.

Hope is not lost just yet for Will Levis. He's shown improvement after coming back from a shoulder injury completing 64.8 percent of his throws for 470 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. Levis has some underrated weapons, including Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley.

The Texans have allowed 20 or more points in eight of their last nine games.

Tennessee's defense is the opposite of a bend-but-don't break defense. The Titans rank in the top two in defensive total yards and pass defense. However, they rank 26th in scoring defense permitting 26.3 points a game. Some of that comes from horrible coverage on special teams. The Titans only have three takeaways. Their defense is not nearly as good as some of their statistics.

C.J. Stroud is due to explode having Nico Collins back in the lineup after he missed five weeks with a hamstring injury. Collins got the rust off last week.

Joe Mixon continues to shine for Houston. His 95.5 yards rushing a game ranks third behind only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Mixon has scored 10 touchdowns in his last six games.

Arkansas State is a bad defensive team. UL-Monroe, however, is heavily ground-oriented and  plays at the second-slowest pace in the nation.

The Warhawks rank fourth-from-the-bottom in passing. If you discount a 38-point performance against a horrendous 1-9 Southern Mississippi team, Monroe is averaging 15.4 points in its last seven games.

Arkansas State has scored fewer than 20 points in five of its last eight games. Monroe ranks 23rd in pass defense.

Heavy wind, slow tempo and bad offenses all put me on the Under.

The forecast is for a chance of rain with winds gusting in the 16-22 mph range.

Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in terms of pace. Michigan State plays especially slow.

Neither team has explosive playmakers. Purdue is averaging a puny 7.5 points in its last four games. Michigan State has been held under 20 points in six of its last seven games.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Travis Kelce get all the publicity. What isn't so publicized is how well Kansas City and Buffalo are defensively. 

The Chiefs rank in the top-five in fewest points, yards and rushing yards allowed per game. Buffalo gives up the ninth-fewest points in the league and is tied for second with 19 takeaways. 

The offenses of these two powerhouses are down because of injuries. 

Kansas City is without its best wideout, Rashee Rice, and top runner, Isiah Pacheco. Mahomes isn't having a great statistical year ranking 17th in the passer ratings. Kicking could become an adventure now for the Chiefs as normally reliable Harrison Butker is out with a knee injury replaced by Spencer Shrader, who was on the Jets' practice squad. 

The Bills have become more ground-oriented this season. That eats clock. Josh Allen will be down two of his four best receivers with Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid ruled out. There's a chance, too, the Bills could be without Amari Cooper, who has been sidelined the past two games with a wrist injury, and offensive right tackle Spencer Brown, who is questionable due to an ankle injury. 

The total has been bet down in this important SEC matchup and for good reason. The defenses are better than the offenses.

Tennessee gives up the fifth-fewest yards and points per game in the nation. The Volunteers' front seven is in the argument for best in the country.

Georgia's ground game is down from past seasons and QB Carson Beck has noticeably regressed. Beck has been picked off nine times in the last four games and has 12 interceptions on the season.

The Bulldogs give up 18.4 points a game, which ranks 17th in the country. Georgia also is 13th in defensive total yards.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has been inconsistent and is not 100 percent healthy. Iamaleava has surpassed 200 yards passing in just three of nine games. The Volunteers' offensive line commits a lot of penalties and is not good in pass protection.

So this figures to be a conservative game with each team relying on their defense to pull it out.

Miami's season statistics are highly misleading because of Tua Tagovailoa missing four games. Tagovailoa has been back for the past two games - and Miami has regained its explosiveness scoring 27 points each against the Bills and Cardinals.

Tagovailoa has completed 80.3 percent of his throws for three touchdowns and no interceptions during these last two weeks. He makes everyone around him much better. The Rams' defense has shown improvement, but it's not good enough when going against a strong offense.

Despite this being a non-conference matchup, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is familiar with the Rams' defense and Sean McVay because of his time coaching the 49ers' offense.

Matthew Stafford is playing at a high level for the Rams. He has his two star wideouts healthy again, which makes a huge difference. The Dolphins have only four takeaways on the season and rank 19th in scoring defense.

After playing Kentucky and Alabama, Tennessee steps way down in class taking on Mississippi State. There isn't a worst defense in the SEC.

How bad are the Bulldogs' defensively? They are giving up 42.6 points in five SEC games. They rank 129th out of 134 teams in yards allowed and they are the second-worst in the country in stop rate, a metric that is the percentage of defensive drives ending in a put, turnover, or turnover on downs.

Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is coming off a strong game against Kentucky completing 28 of 38 throws for 292 yards and a touchdown. The Volunteers rank 12th in scoring averaging 38.1 points a game. Iamaleava should have plenty of time to scan the field since the Bulldogs have only two sacks in their five SEC matchups.

Mississippi State should contribute its share to this total going Over. The Bulldogs are averaging nearly 400 yards in SEC play while converting their third downs at close to a 40 percent rate. Michael Van Buren Jr. will be making his sixth consecutive start since replacing injured Blake Shapen in mid-September.

The Bulldogs are averaging 31.2 points in their last four games. They put up 31 points on Georgia.

This total is too short considering how fast these teams play and their current form.

East Carolina's last three games have averaged a total of 80.6 points being scored. 

Florida Atlantic has had at least 58 combined points scored during its last five games vs. FBS opponents. Florida Atlantic just surrendered 44 points to South Florida, who was playing without its starting QB. The Owls gave up 526 yards, including 320 rushing yards, in that loss to the Owls.

East Carolina yielded 34 points and 405 yards to Temple in its last game while scoring 54 points. Temple is a bottom tier offense averaging fewer than 21 points a game, while ranking 119th in total yards.

These are two of the weaker defenses in the ACC. Stanford gives up 31.5 points a game, which ranks 108th in scoring defense. North Carolina State allows 31.1 points per game, which is 105th.

Both Stanford and Clemson have enough playmakers to take advantage of these below par defenses. Cardinal wide receiver Elic Anyomanor is one of the most talented pass catchers in the country. Stanford QB Ashton Daniels is a dual threat, who has completed 62.2 percent of his passes and leads the team in rushing.

Wolfpack QB CJ Bailey is getting better each week since replacing injured Grayson McCall. Bailey has thrown for more than 300 yards each of the last two games and has a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Stanford ranks 123rd in pass defense.

Memphis QB Seth Henigan holds the school record for touchdown passes with 91. Henigan should face little difficulty adding to that total against a Texas San-Antonio secondary that ranks 125th in pass defense.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 46-45 road loss to Tulsa. Making that defeat so bad for UTSA is it blew a 35-7 halftime lead!

Memphis is surrendering an average of 36 points during its past two games playing UNC Charlotte and North Texas.

Neither defense can be trusted. This game also is on a fast track being played indoors at the Alamodome.

Weather factors here. There is more than a 90 percent chance of rain in Seattle with the wind blowing at 10-to-15 miles per hour. 

Couple that with D.K. Metcalf likely out and Seattle getting defensive reinforced and there should be fewer points scored than expected. 

The Seahawks are more healthy defensively than they have been. Derrick Hall and Boye Mafe are one of the more underrated pass rushing tandems with a combined nine sacks this season. Seattle also traded for tackling machine linebacker Ernest Jones. 

The Bills are on the road for the fourth time in five weeks. This is their longest road trip. Buffalo has become more ground-oriented this season. Seattle just held the Falcons to 14 points in Atlanta this past Sunday. The Falcons had averaged 33.3 points during their previous three games. 

Seattle has a strong defensive brain trust with head coach Mike Macdonald, the mastermind behind Baltimore's defenses, and assistant head coach Leslie Frazier, a defensive-minded coach who was Buffalo's defensive coordinator from 2017-22. Frazier obviously knows Josh Allen and the Bills well. 

Metcalf suffered a sprained MCL in the Seahawks' win against the Falcons. He's the alpha in Seattle's receiving pecking order and the lone deep threat. 

Buffalo gives up the seventh-fewest points per game at 19.4. 

Now that the Chargers' outstanding starting offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt are healthy, Jim Harbaugh can run a more balanced offense and not be so run-heavy. It also helps that Justin Herbert seems healed from an ankle sprain. Herbert is an elite passer when given adequate pass protection and being healthy.

Herbert has mediocre receivers to throw to, but the bar is set very low here. The Cardinals are a bottom-six defense with multiple injuries. They lack a pass rush and rank 29th in run defense. Herbert should have favorable play-call situations all game against this foe.

I expect the Cardinals' offense to get in gear. Kyler Murray has the mobility and the skill position talent. Look for Marvin Harrison Jr. to be among his weapons for this game.

The Cardinals have had to play the Packers and 49ers on the road during their past two games. Now they are home. That should make a difference.

The Chargers have excellent defensive numbers. The only good quarterback, though, the Chargers have faced this season is Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have been fortunate to go against the following QB's: Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields and Bo Nix. So their defensive numbers are skewed.

If you like Unders then the NFL Sunday night games this season have been perfect for you as each of the six Sunday night games have gone below the total.

Look for that string to continue tonight in the Jets-Steelers matchup.

The Jets were in the news acquiring Davonte Adams. But the Jets can have all the weapons they want. It won't matter if 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers doesn't have time in the pocket. Slowed by ankle and knee soreness, the increasingly immobile Rodgers has been sacked 11 times in the Jets' past three games. He's been hit 30 times during this three-game time span.

Pittsburgh has the premier pass rusher in football, T.J. Watt. The Steelers give up the second-fewest points in the league. They rank fourth in run defense. The Jets are on a short week and traveling after losing to the Bills this past Monday night.

I'm somewhat perplexed by Mike Tomlin's decision to start Russell Wilson, who hasn't been good for three years and figures to be rusty. The Jets give up the second-fewest yards per game and seventh-fewest points.

The Steelers rank 26th in total offense. Their run-oriented offense is highly conservative. Not surprising since their offensive coordinator is Arthur Smith, who never met a run up the middle he didn't like.

If there is a worse NFL defense than Carolina this season, I haven't seen it. The Panthers are giving up an average of 36 points during their last three games. They rank last in scoring defense, 30th in run defense and 29th in total defense. Injuries to their best linebackers and defensive linemen have rendered what began as a below-average defense to absolute dust.

Sparked by Jayden Daniels, the Commanders have produced an NFL record of highest percentage of drives ending in a score through the first six games at 62 percent.

Carolina has scored 20, 22 and 24 points in three of four games Andy Dalton has started. Now the Panthers get to face a well-below-par Washington defense that has just one takeaway. The Commanders just lost their best defensive lineman, Jonathan Allen, for the season, too.

Nice weather is expected in Landover, Md., so everything is in place for a high-scoring game the oddsmaker is certainly expecting.

As long as the Texans don't self-destruct like the Cardinals did last Sunday against Green Bay losing three fumbles, they will put up their share of points on the Packers. Green Bay has many high draft choices on defense. But the production on most of these players hasn't matched the draft capital Green Bay spent on them. Underrated defensive lineman Devonte Wyatt has an injured ankle and high-priced nose tackle Kenny Clark and cornerback Jaire Alexander are having disappointing seasons.

Joe Mixon returned to the Texans' lineup last Sunday after being out for three games and Houston put up 41 points on the Patriots and that was without Nico Collins.

The Packers have their offense humming with a healthy lineup. Green Bay is averaging 29.2 points in its last four games. Jordan Love has a deep set of receiving targets and should be in line to match last week's four-touchdown passing performance against a beat-up Houston defense that gave up three touchdown passes to rookie Drake Maye in his NFL debut last Sunday.

Green Bay's biggest offensive weakness has been kicking. That problem should be solved with this week's signing of veteran Brandon McManus, who has one of the league's highest percentage of field goals made inside 50 yards.

Navy has gone Over in all five of its games this season. No surprise since the Midshipmen have scored at least 34 points in every one of their games. The Midshipmen rank No. 2 in the nation in rushing offense and 16th in total offense.

Charlotte ranks 119th in yards allowed per game. The 49ers give up 31.7 points a game, which ranks 111th.

The 49ers' offense is off their best game producing 55 points against East Carolina two weeks ago. The 49ers had their bye this week so they should have a few new wrinkles to throw at Navy.

Sure this is a very high total. But it's totally justified. The two teams played last season and Texas State won, 77-31. The Bobcats ran up the score, too, in that one. So neither of these teams is going to let up no matter what the score is. 

Texas State is all about scoring under offensive mastermind G.J. Kinne. The Bobcats are averaging 37.6 points a game. The Over has cashed in four of their five games.

Arkansas State has a porous defense ranking 120th in total defense. The Red Wolves, though, have a big-time wide receiver in Corey Rucker. They can do their part to get this total Over against a pedestrian Texas State defense. 

James Madison was upset, 21-19, by UL Monroe in its last game as a 17-point road favorite. I believe the Dukes, though, are much more like the powerhouse they were during the previous two games when they scored 63 points on Ball State and 70 points against North Carolina.

Alonza Barnett is an outstanding dual threat QB. Coastal Carolina is a sloppy tackling team that ranks 116th in rum defense and 98th in scoring defense and total defense. This was against weak competition, too.  

The Dukes are going to get their points. The key is can Coastal Carolina do its share of scoring? I believe the Chanticleers can. James Madison has faced four weak offenses in its five games. North Carolina put up 50 points against the Dukes.

Coastal Carolina has put up at least 40 points in three of its five games. The Chanticleers just put up 45 points against a respectable Old Dominion defense last week.

Down their most dangerous wide receiver, Rashee Rice, and best running back, Isaiah Pacheco, the Chiefs are not the explosive team some perceive. Kansas City has scored just 39 combined points the past two weeks taking on the Chargers and Falcons.

The Saints have a solid, well-coached defense that gives up the seventh-fewest points per game at 17.5.

Kansas City's strength is its defense, which surrenders just 18 points a game. 

The Saints are dealing with a cluster injury problem to their offensive line. Out are Pro Bowl center Erik, McCoy, his backup center Shane Lemieux and guard Cesar Ruiz. Swingman Lucas Patrick is questionable. Also out is Taysom Hill, the Saints' unique gadget player and highly effective goal line runner. 

So expect the Saints to have plenty of problems keeping elite defensive lineman Chris Jones away from Derek Carr, who is one of the least effective quarterbacks when under a heavy pass rush.

Dual threat Jayden Daniels is capable of producing points against any defense. He's already showing signs of being the Lamar Jackson of the NFC. The Cardinals have a below average defense. They've come up with only one takeaway.

The Cardinals are back to having a high-powered attack with Kyler Murray fully healthy. Murray has plenty of receiving weapons even without injured stud tight end Trey McBride. James Conner hasn't gotten hurt yet, so he gives the Cardinals a balanced attack.

The Commanders present a solid case for having the worst defense in the NFL. They rank in the bottom-four in key statistical categories, including scoring defense, most yards allowed and pass defense. Washington has yet to come up with a takeaway.

Eastern Michigan plays at a slow pace and ranks 103rd in yardage. The Eagles are far from explosive.

Don't expect any explosion from Kent State either. The Golden Flashes rank last in yards and second-to-last in points averaging 10.3.

Kent State is down to third-string QB Tommy Ulatowski because of injuries. Because of this the Golden Flashes are going to have to rely on an ineffective ground attack that averages a puny 1.67 yards on the ground. They won't be playing fast either.

The buy sign is on for these offenses. So is the situation. It's a high total, but I envision a shootout.

The Lions are in ill favor. They racked up 463 yards against Tampa Bay last week, but managed only 16 points because of going 1 for 7 in the red zone. Even with that the Lions still have scored 30 or more points in five of their last nine games.

Arizona has a weak defense. The Lions have all of their major weapons. I don't see the Cardinals slowing down Detroit.

But I also don't see the Lions holding down the Cardinals either.

The Cardinals' offense was as good as envisioned in Week 2 scoring 41 points on the Rams. The Cardinals took their foot off the gas, too, in the fourth quarter. A fully healthy Kyler Murray is back playing at a high level and Marvin Harrison Jr. gives him a stud wide receiver to go with elite tight end Trey McBride.

Arizona leads the NFL in converting third down plays at 58 percent.

There is little doubt about Toledo's offense. The Rockets have produced 49 points against Duquesne, 38 points vs. UMass and then 41 points and 454 yards against Mississippi State last week. Doing that against an SEC opponent on the road is impressive. 

Rockets QB Tucker Gleason has thrown for 662 yards and has a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season. 

But some have doubts about Western Kentucky's quarterback situation after TJ Finley suffered a leg injury. He'll be out for this game. Sophomore Caden Veltkamp will replace him.

I'm not one of those who have doubts that the Hilltoppers will put up a lot of points with the quarterback change. They have a quarterback-friendly system that has produced an average of 40 points in their last two games against Eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. A shutout loss to Alabama opening week skews Western Kentucky's overall offensive numbers.

Veltkamp has a career mark of throwing for 821 yards with a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

Both teams play at a fast tempo, too. 

Toledo averaged 35 points last season and 33 points two years ago. The Rockets are averaging 43.5 points in two games this season. They have a balanced attack. Mississippi State ranks 121st in run defense. So the Rockets are going to get their share of points. 

Mississippi State is averaging 42.5 points a game through two games. The Bulldogs have committed just one turnover. They are facing a Rockets defense that ranks 73rd in defensive total yards despite playing easy opponents, Duquesne and UMass. 

Blake Shapen is an underrated quarterback and the Bulldogs have surrounded him with good receiving targets. 

Another key is tempo. Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in terms of pace. 

It's a fast track inside the Falcons' dome stadium, but I'm not expecting a fast-paced game between these two teams.

The Steelers have a washed-up Russell Wilson as their quarterback and could be the most run-heavy team in the NFL. That notion is reinforced with the addition of Arthur Smith as Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator. Smith is as run-heavy as any offensive coordinator.

Pittsburgh's offensive line still looks underwhelming and the Falcons upgraded their defense, trading for elite pass rusher Matthew Judon and greatly strengthening their secondary by signing safeties Justin Simmons and Jessie Bates.

Don't expect the Falcons to light up the scoreboard. Kirk Cousins is 35 and coming back from a torn Achilles. He didn't play during preseason so he figures to be rusty and he's with a new team. The Steelers are strong defensively led by elite pass rusher T.J. Watt.

Smith should be an asset assisting Mike Tomlin here since he coached the Falcons during the previous three years.

North Carolina State needed to upgrade at quarterback. The Wolfpack certainly did that landing transfer Grayson McCall, who has more than 10,000 passing yards and 109 all-purpose touchdowns. The Wolfpack put up 38 points against Western Carolina in their opener last week. 

Tennessee has its own emerging star quarterback in Nico Iamaleava. He helped lead the Volunteers to a 35-0 whipping of Iowa in a bowl game last season and he was sharp in Tennessee's, 69-3, shellacking of Tennessee-Chattanooga last week with three TD passes and 314 yards passing before sitting out. The Volunteers played at an exceptionally fast tempo in that game. 

So look for a shootout here with two outstanding passing attacks, playing at an up-tempo pace. 

Michigan State's offense is terrible. The Spartans are averaging 11.9 points in their last 11 games. New QB Aidan Chiles wasn't impressive, nor was the Spartans' offense, in last week's opening win, 16-10, at home against Florida Atlantic. The Spartans couldn't reach 300 yards against Florida Atlantic.

Maryland was much more impressive in a 50-7 opening-week victory against overmatched Connecticut. The Terrapins, though, are breaking in new QB Billy Edwards Jr. after four years of having Taulia Tagovailoa behind center. Edwards is going to have it much rougher stepping up against Michigan State's defense, which is way ahead of its offense.

I see Maryland turning in a good defensive performance, too, as the Terrapins have improved the past couple of years defensively and are facing an extremely weak offense.

SMU ranked eighth in scoring and 16th in total offense last year. After a slow three quarters in their opener against Nevada, the Mustangs' offense has gotten back on track producing 76 points in their last five quarters.

The Mustangs have a star quarterback in Preston Stone and plenty of speedy skill position weapons for Stone to utilize. BYU's defense was way down last season. The Cougars gave up an average of 37.5 points in six road games last season. I don't see the Cougars holding SMU below 35 points.

The key question then becomes how much can BYU score to push this total Over?

I believe the Cougars' offense can produce their share of points and not just because SMU is rebuilding its defensive line and secondary.

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff displayed a big arm in passing for 348 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-13 victory against Southern Illinois last week.

Texas A&M has made seven quarterback changes during the past two seasons. The Aggies still have an unsettled offensive line and are not scary at the skill position spots.

Notre Dame's defense should be able to handle the Aggies. The Irish ranked in the top 10 defensively in many important categories, including fifth in yards allowed and seventh in scoring defense.

Defense is the strength of Texas A&M especially in the defensive line where Purdue transfer Nic Scourton comes on board after leading the Big Ten in sacks last year. Notre Dame lacks experience in the offensive line where three starters departed, including star tackle Joe Alt.

The Irish are breaking in skill position players, too, including QB Riley Leonard. Texas A&M's first year head coach Mike Elko is familiar with Leonard since he coached him at Duke last year.

Given all the skill position talent, outstanding offensive coaching and this game being played indoors, I'm going Over this total.

There were 73 combined points in last year's Super Bowl between the Eagles and Chiefs. While I don't believe the 49ers and Chiefs will get anywhere near that number, I do believe there will be more than 50 points produced by the two teams.

Andy Reid is one of the best offensive innovator head coaches of all-time. Kyle Shanahan is an elite play-caller. Give these coaches two weeks to prepare and they should design excellent schemes and game plans.

Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL and already one of the all-time greats. He has a Hall of Fame tight end, Travis Kelce, wide receiver depth and a solid running back in Isiah Pacheco, who is running behind an improved run-blocking offensive line.

San Francisco has an average secondary and its overall defense has not looked good in its two playoff games. Aaron Jones ran for 108 yards, while averaging 6.0 yards a carry, against the 49ers and the Lions rushed for 182 yards on 29 carries - a 6.3 yards per run average - against San Francisco. Mahomes is going to be highly effective if the Chiefs are running the ball well. The Chiefs put up 31 points when they met the 49ers in the Super Bowl four seasons ago.

Kansas City has its best defense of the Reid/Mahomes era. But the rules highly favor offense and the 49ers have numerous weapons for Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey - the best all-purpose back in the league - Deebo Samuel - the best combination of receiver/runner in the NFL - emerging star Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and versatile fullback Kyle Juszczyk.

The Chiefs just lost two of their defensive linemen to injuries, Charles Omenihu and Derrick Nnadi. The 49ers are averaging 31.1 points in their last 10 games in which Purdy has started. Kansas City's defense is good, but not elite. It can't stop all of those 49ers weapons.

San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.

Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.

The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.

The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.

Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. 

The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.

Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected. 

Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under. 

Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.

Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions. 

The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game.

I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.

Joe Flacco has been a remarkable story saving the Browns' season. But what's been overlooked about Flacco, who turns 39 in a matter of days, is he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts with Cleveland.

I envision the Browns being heavily run-oriented against the Texans. The Colts had great success on the ground vs the Texans. But they had Jonathan Taylor. The Browns don't have an above average runner with Nick Chubb sidelined.

Houston's defense is going to get reinforced, too, this week with the return of star pass rushing rookie Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, an underrated player who racks up tackles. The Texans also might get back defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard.