Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
07-26-24 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
When we last saw the Rockies they were scoring 20 runs. That was this past Wednesday at Coors Field. | |||||||
07-24-24 | Orioles -126 v. Marlins | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
The good news for the Marlins is Edward Cabrera is back from having spent two months on the injured list. The bad news is Cabrera has been terrible since his return. He's made three starts this month and has a 7.71 ERA. | |||||||
07-23-24 | Phillies -138 v. Twins | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They have their ace, Zack Wheeler, going today in a bounce back spot after the Twins won the first game of this series, 7-2, last night. Tuesday Free Play Rockies plus $1.43 hosting Red Sox I cashed with the underdog Rockies on Monday and am coming back with them as big home underdogs again today as a free play. | |||||||
07-22-24 | Red Sox v. Rockies +149 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 149 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Coming off a high-profile three-game road series against the Dodgers that culminated with a loss on national television last night, the Red Sox face a tough situational spot meeting the Rockies at Coors Field. | |||||||
07-21-24 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
There haven't been more than eight runs scored in a game during the first two games of this series with both games going Under. I don't see that changing in this Sunday matchup where backups often get to start and the pitching matchup is Drew Thorpe vs All-Star Seth Lugo. | |||||||
07-20-24 | Reds -102 v. Nationals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -102 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
A pair of young, promising lefties go here, Nick Lodolo for the Reds and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. | |||||||
07-19-24 | Phillies -150 v. Pirates | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -150 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
No reason to overthink this one. The Phillies have the best record in baseball. They are healthy again and are 14 games better than the Pirates. The pitching matchup of Aaron Nola vs lefty Martin Perez is heavily in Philadelphia's favor, too. | |||||||
07-14-24 | Twins v. Giants -119 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
The Giants are a sound 27-22 at home. They have a strong pitching matchup edge here and they catch the Twins with Minnesota possibly missing three of its best hitters. | |||||||
07-11-24 | Cubs v. Orioles -125 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
The 44-49 Cubs, with their below average offense and defense, are trying to do what hasn't been done this season: Beat the 57-35 Orioles three straight in Baltimore. The Orioles haven't lost three in a row at Camden Yards all season. | |||||||
07-10-24 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 60 m | Show |
Since winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals have been terrible. One major reason for this is their reluctance to cut ties with highly overpaid lefty Patrick Corbin. This is the fourth consecutive year Corbin has been horrible with a 1-8 record and 5.49 ERA. | |||||||
07-09-24 | Blue Jays v. Giants -111 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
The Giants finally get to step down in class taking on the Blue Jays after having just played nine games against the Guardians, Braves and Dodgers. | |||||||
07-08-24 | Cardinals v. Nationals -107 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
Soft-tossing 35-year-old Miles Mikolas wasn't very good last year for the Cardinals with a 9-13 record and 4.78 ERA. He's worse this season with a 6-7 record and 5.19 ERA. | |||||||
07-07-24 | Brewers v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
The Over has cashed in seven of the Dodgers' last eight games. I fully expect this game to go Over, too. | |||||||
07-06-24 | Rays -107 v. Rangers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
The Rays have won their last five series. But if they want to keep that series streak going they need to win this game after losing, 3-0, to the Rangers on Friday night. | |||||||
07-05-24 | Mets v. Pirates -116 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
Paul Skenes has a 2.06 ERA. I haven't heard of a Pirates starter with an ERA that low since Vic Willis and he pitched at the turn of the century - the 20th century. | |||||||
07-03-24 | Astros -105 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
The Astros are coming on having won 10 of their last 12 games. The Blue Jays are an underachieving seven games below .500, with an overrated offense, their two best relievers on the injured list and a bad manager. | |||||||
07-02-24 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
There were 15 runs scored in Colorado's, 8-7, win against Milwaukee on Monday. I expect at least a dozen runs in Tuesday's game with even a worse pitching matchup of Dallas Keuchel vs Ryan Feltner. | |||||||
07-01-24 | Astros v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Quietly the Blue Jays have gone Over in their last seven games while averaging 7.1 runs in their last six games if you discount Sunday's one-run performance against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees. | |||||||
06-29-24 | Astros v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
I find this total short against two hot offensive teams. The Astros were averaging 6.9 runs in their last seven games until losing, 7-2, to the Mets on Friday. Even with that loss, though, the Mets had 12 hits but stranded a season-high 14 runners. Houston should do a much better job of getting its runners home facing Tylor Megill, who has a 4.81 ERA and a 7.82 ERA during his last three starts. The Mets are averaging 6.6 runs during their last 20 games. They have the fourth-highest slugging percentage against lefty pitchers and are going against southpaw Framber Valdez. Valdez could be especially vulnerable because there is a strong wind blowing out to left field that should aid both team's right-handed hitters. | |||||||
06-28-24 | Padres v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 3 m | Show |
Two above average offenses that are hot facing mediocre-to-bad starting pitchers at hitter-friendly Fenway Park should produce double-digit runs. | |||||||
06-26-24 | Braves -122 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
We know who Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson is. A mediocre journeyman, who has pitched for five different teams since 2019. | |||||||
06-24-24 | Braves -112 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
The Cardinals are playing better, winning eight of their past 11 games. They've also played six opponents with losing records during their last six series. | |||||||
06-22-24 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Tommy Henry vs Zach Wheeler. | |||||||
06-19-24 | Astros -112 v. White Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Southpaw Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the White Sox with a 3.16 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 116 strikeouts, which is No. 2 in the majors. | |||||||
06-18-24 | Reds -118 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
When it comes to the Pirates, I won't go against Paul Skenes and I have great respect for the backend of their bullpen. Other than that, though, the Pirates are fair game. I'm going against them today in a pitching matchup of Nick Lodolo vs Bailey Falter. | |||||||
06-16-24 | Royals v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
A healthy Tyler Glasnow is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Glasnow is healthy and pitching in a day game. He's 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in day games this season. | |||||||
06-15-24 | Marlins v. Nationals -115 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
DJ Herz has one thing going for him as he faces the Marlins at home in his third big league start. Herz is a lefty. | |||||||
06-11-24 | Angels v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
You can't have a single digit total here in a pitching matchup of lefties Jose Suarez against Jordan Montgomery. | |||||||
06-08-24 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
San Diego's Matt Waldron is that pitching rarity - a knuckleballer. He's also a hot pitcher with a 1.47 ERA during his last three starts. Waldron, a righty, hasn't permitted more than two earned runs a game during his past five starts. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 against righthanders in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. | |||||||
06-07-24 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -115 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
The Padres are averaging 2.2 runs in their last five games. San Diego's offense is better than that. The Padres lead the majors in batting average and get to face Brandon Pfaadt at home. Michael King opposes Pfaadt. | |||||||
06-03-24 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
They are not big-names, but Tylor Megill and emerging star MacKenzie Gore are having below-the-radar excellent seasons. | |||||||
06-02-24 | Cardinals v. Phillies -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
Even though the Cardinals have been playing a little better, they are still a below .500 team. The Phillies have the best record in baseball at 41-18. Philadelphia also has won eight consecutive home games. | |||||||
06-01-24 | A's v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
Reynaldo Lopez recorded a season-high eight strikeouts in the Braves', 4-2, home win against the A's on Friday. That doesn't bode well for Oakland in today's game because now the A's draw lefty Chris Sale. | |||||||
05-27-24 | Guardians v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
His name sounds like a Mayberry character from the old Andy Griffith Show. But Colorado's Austin Gomber has been one of the top pitchers this month with a 0.68 ERA. Gomber has a 2.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP on the season. Cleveland is also going with an underrated pitcher, Xzavion Curry. He has a 1.93 ERA and is backed by the best bullpen in the majors. Cleveland's relief staff has the lowest ERA in the majors at 2.55. Colorado's offense is way down this season. The Rockies rank 21st in runs and 26th in homers despite playing at Coors Field. Stephen Nover Monday Free Play Reds minus $1.31 hosting Cardinals The Cardinals begin a season-long nine-game road trip today. They hit the road with little rest after getting past the Cubs, 4-3, late Sunday night in a game that was delayed 2 1/2 hours by rain. St. Louis has finally started to play better. But the host Reds are brimming with confidence after a three-game home sweep of the Dodgers. The Reds welcome back to their rotation southpaw Nick Lodolo, who had been on the injured list with a groin strain. Lodolo is 3-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He has 43 strikeouts in 35 innings. The Cardinals rank last in the majors against lefty pitching batting .202. They also are at the bottom vs lefthanders in slugging percentage. Veteran Lance Lynn gets the start for St. Louis. He had a 3.68 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Lynn is vulnerable to the long ball and Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting parks in the majors. Lynn has a career 4.22 ERA at Great American Ball Park in 12 appearances, including 10 starts. | |||||||
05-20-24 | Red Sox v. Rays -105 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
These teams have been going in opposite directions. Tampa Bay is 11-5 in its last 16 games. Boston is 5-11 in its last 16 games. The Rays are now ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East standings because of this current form. | |||||||
05-13-24 | Phillies -120 v. Mets | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
The Phillies are 28-13. That's the best record in baseball. They've won 13 of their last 16 games. The Mets are below .500 with a mediocre offense. The Phillies have a far better offense and the superior starting pitcher going. | |||||||
05-12-24 | Astros -112 v. Tigers | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
I want Justin Verlander and a rested Josh Hader going for me in this matchup. Verlander had his first poor performance of the season in his last start. He'll be highly motivated going against his long-time former team. Verlander still is a well above average pitcher who rates a strong edge on comeback-minded Jack Flaherty, who has a 4.26 home ERA. The Tigers have a bottom-10 offense. The Astros finally have begun playing better. They have a winning record in their last dozen games. | |||||||
05-09-24 | Royals v. Angels +103 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Kansas City's Michael Wacha has made two good starts this season. Both came against the White Sox, the worst offensive team in baseball. His other five starts haven't been good, particularly his last two. Those were against the Tigers and Rangers. Wacha gave up 11 earned runs and 18 hits in 9 2/3 innings against those two teams. | |||||||
05-05-24 | Rockies v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
The Rockies are averaging two runs a game during their last four games. Their offense is far worse away from Coors Field. The Pirates have a bottom-five offense. They are averaging a puny 1.5 runs during their past eight games. | |||||||
05-03-24 | Padres +104 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 7-1 | Win | 104 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Slade Cecconi has been a nice early story for the Diamondbacks. There were at least seven Arizona starters rated ahead of Cecconi at the start of the season. But injuries to Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez have opened a spot in the rotation and Cecconi has taken advantage - so far. | |||||||
04-30-24 | Giants -124 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
The Red Sox have been getting great pitching in building a 16-13 record. I don't see that continuing starting with this game. | |||||||
04-27-24 | Rays -1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
Give me a reason, any reason, to fade the 4-22 White Sox. OK, I have one. The Rays just were embarrassed, 9-4, by the White Sox on Friday night. The White Sox haven't won two in a row all season. They are the worst offensive team in baseball by far ranking last in various major categories, including runs, batting average and homers. I don't see Tampa Bay starter Aaron Civale having too much trouble handling such a weak lineup. The Rays should do plenty of damage against rookie White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon, who has a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. | |||||||
04-23-24 | Astros -108 v. Cubs | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Houston Astros have been playing like the Houston Colts .45s. Hard to believe, but the Astros are 7-16. Houston is down from its recent past dominant seasons, but they haven't regressed this much! What the Astros needed was a day off to regroup and get focused again. They got that on Monday being idle. That means a rested bullpen and a rested Josh Hader. This is good news for starter J.P. France, who held the Braves to two runs on four hits in five innings this past Wednesday in his last start. The Braves are the top offensive team in baseball. The Cubs are going with Jordan Wicks, who is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA. Wicks has yet to complete five innings during any of his first four starts this year. The Cubs have been vulnerable at closer with Adbert Alzolay blowing four of his first seven save opportunities. Chicago has been without outfielder Ian Happ the past two games due to a hamstring injury. He's second on the Cubs in runs scored. He's questionable. Bottom line is I like the pitching matchup for the Astros - both starter and bullpen - and they are due to start turning things around. The price is right to back them. | |||||||
04-20-24 | Orioles v. Royals UNDER 8 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -114 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Don't look for many runs to be scored in this Orioles-Royals game. Both teams have their aces going. Corbin Burnes for Baltimore and emerging star Cole Ragans for Kansas City. Burnes has a 2.28 ERA and Ragans' ERA is 1.93. The top bullpen arms are fresh, too, for this game. This is a rematch of an April 3 game when the Orioles won, 4-3. Ragans didn't give up a run in that contest. He allowed only one hit, two walks and struck out seven in 6 1/3 innings. Burnes gave up two runs in 5 2/3 innings. The weather and slated home plate umpire are good signs, too, for an Under. Temperatures are going to be in the low 50s with the wind blowing in at around 10 mph. Ryan Blakney is scheduled to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed in 19 of Blakney's last 29 games as home plate umpire going back to last season for 66 percent. | |||||||
04-18-24 | Guardians +115 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Given their injuries, the Red Sox have done well to open the season 10-9. Boston has received outstanding starting pitching and power from Tyler O'Neil, who is second in the majors in homers with seven. | |||||||
04-16-24 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The Nationals have one quality start this season. Don't expect them to have two after this game against the Dodgers. Patrick Corbin is starting for Washington. He hasn't been good since 2019. | |||||||
04-15-24 | Padres -115 v. Brewers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Down star closer Devin Williams and leading the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position entering yesterday, the Brewers are off to a National League-best 10-4 start. | |||||||
04-14-24 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The Dodgers and Padres rank first and second, respectively, in most home runs this season. The Padres have a top-10 offense and the Dodgers a top-five attack. | |||||||
04-13-24 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +102 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
Kyle Gibson wasn't very good in the American League and he's not very good in the National League either. Gibson is with his fourth team in the last four years. He is an ineffective journeyman pitcher whose ERA has been above 5.00 in four of the past six seasons, including 6.23 this year. Gibson should not be a road favorite against the National League defending champion Diamondbacks. Yet that's the way this game opened. It opened that way because Arizona is starting Ryne Nelson, who is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA. Nelson, though, has faced the Braves and Yankees this season. The Braves have the best offense in the majors and the Yankees are in the top-10 in home runs. Now Nelson, an excellent buy low candidate, is stepping down in class as the Cardinals rank 21st in runs, 23rd in home runs and 25th in batting average. I peg the 26-year-old Nelson to be much improved this season with added velocity to his fastball and improved secondary pitches. He was outstanding during spring training compiling a 2.66 ERA in 20 1/3 innings with 26 strikeouts in his five starts. The Diamondbacks have a far better offense than St. Louis ranking in the top-six in runs and batting average, while hitting the eighth-most homers. Gibson has surrendered four homers in 13 innings. | |||||||
04-10-24 | White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 59 m | Show |
Tanner Bibee is going to look very good pitching on Wednesday. How's that? What major league pitcher wouldn't look good going against hitters such as Robbie Grossman, Nicky Lopez, Lenny Sosa, Kevin Pillar, Paul DeJong and Martin Maldonado. | |||||||
04-01-24 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
A total that opens below 9 in a Dodgers game is going to pique my interest. This is one of those games. | |||||||
10-20-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
Arizona's relief pitchers did a great job in helping preserve the Diamondbacks' 2-1 victory against the Phillies on Thursday. I don't think they can do it again, though. | |||||||
10-18-23 | Astros +120 v. Rangers | Top | 8-5 | Win | 120 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The Astros are down 2-0 in this American League Championship Series, but I'm not ready to count them out. The scene shifting from Houston to Texas is a good thing for the Astros. | |||||||
10-17-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -157 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The magic is broken. Momentum gone. After sweeping the Brewers and Dodgers in the playoffs, the Diamondbacks lost, 5-3, to the Phillies in Monday's NLCS opener. | |||||||
10-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 7 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The marketplace is enamored with the pitching matchup of Zac Gallen versus Zach Wheeler in this opening game of the National League Championship Series. The total is being bet down. | |||||||
10-03-23 | Blue Jays +100 v. Twins | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
The Twins face two obstacles here: Kevin Gausman and their own wretched playoff history. | |||||||
09-29-23 | Red Sox +125 v. Orioles | Top | 3-0 | Win | 125 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Congratulations to the Orioles for winning the tough AL East Division and earning the top seed in the American League. Baltimore clinched that distinction by beating the Red Sox, 2-0, on Thursday night. So the Orioles can be excused if they mail in this game. After all, it's a meaningless game for them. Some regulars could get rested. The team still might be celebrating - or hung over. It sets up a great underdog spot for the Red Sox. They've played Baltimore tough all season going 4-6 against the Orioles with half of the losses occurring by one run. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta against lefty John Means. Pivetta runs hot and cold. Right now he's blazing, giving up two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 13 1/3 innings. He has 13 strikeouts during this span. Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings against the White Sox in his last start this past Saturday. Pivetta is 7-2 with a 3.54 ERA in 61 career innings versus Baltimore. Means is making only his fourth start having been out all season. He has a 5.40 home ERA this season. The Red Sox are 23-18 against southpaw starters this season. They rank in the top-10 in on-base percentage versus lefties. Baltimore has been tough to go against all season. But this is one spot where it's justified. | |||||||
09-27-23 | Pirates +120 v. Phillies | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
Unlike other sports, baseball doesn't lend itself to situational handicapping except for a few rare times. This is one of those rare times. The Phillies clinched the top wild-card spot by nipping the Pirates, 3-2, in 10 innings on Tuesday. They celebrated with champagne in the clubhouse. I don't see the Phillies being motivated for this game since they already have clinched a postseason berth and will be hosting playoff games. The Pirates are closing the season in respectable fashion winning eight of their last 13 games. Pittsburgh is pitching John Oviedo, who has given up only one run during his last two starts spanning 11 innings against the Cubs and Yankees. Ranger Suarez gets the start for Philadelphia. He's pitched much worse at home where he's 1-3 with a 4.99 ERA compared to being 3-3 with a 2.75 ERA on the road. | |||||||
09-19-23 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Technically the Padres haven't been eliminated yet from the playoffs. Realistically yes, though, trailing by 5 1/2 games for the final NL wild-card spot with 11 games to go. The underachieving Padres waited too long to put together their first five-game win streak of the season. But the Padres want to achieve some kind of distinction from their disappointing season. That would be to get Blake Snell the Cy Young Award. Snell is a strong candidate for that honor with a 14-9 record and the league's lowest ERA at 2.43 and 217 strikeouts in 167 innings. Snell is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his last three starts - and that was going against the Dodgers, Astros and Giants. The feeble Rockies are batting .231 on the road. They rank second-to-last in slugging percentage and on-base percentage away from Coors Field. Snell should dominate a youthful, rebuilding Colorado lineup while his teammates should batter Colorado starter Ryan Feltner and a Colorado bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors at 5.29. Feltner hasn't pitched since May 13 when he sustained a skull fracture after getting hit in the head by a line drive. Feltner is 2-3 on the season with a 5.86 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. The Rockies probably will have Feltner on a pitch count. San Diego is averaging eight runs per game during its last eight games. That hot-hitting definitely should continue here. | |||||||
09-18-23 | Orioles v. Astros -147 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -147 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
I respect the heck out of the Orioles. But the timing and pitching matchup are heavily against them in this one. Baltimore clinched its first playoff berth since 2016 on Sunday with a walk-off extra inning home win against division rival Tampa Bay. The Orioles did plenty of celebrating following their achievement. I doubt the Orioles will be at peak efficiency when they go on the road for the first time in eight games. The Orioles are also missing a couple of key injured players: closer Felix Bautista and slugger Ryan Mountcastle, who is fourth on the team in homers with 18 and fifth in RBI's with 67. Lefty John Means will be making just his second appearance for the Orioles starting this game. Means had been out the entire season up until this past Tuesday because of Tommy John elbow surgery. He made this first start six days ago against the Cardinals, giving up three earned runs, including two homers, in five innings in a 5-2 loss. The Orioles are hoping Means has the rust off when the playoffs begin. So Means is likely to have a longer leash than normally expected for someone on the comeback trail. The Astros rank in the top-four in many offensive categories against southpaws, including batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. The Astros are clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead in the AL West Division. They are expected to pitch future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, who is 11-8 with a 3.39 ERA. Verlander's home ERA is 3.14. | |||||||
09-15-23 | Phillies -137 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Aaron Nola isn't having a good season by his lofty standards. But he dominates the Cardinals. That was on display on Aug. 27 when he threw seven shutout innings giving up only one hit with nine strikeouts and one walk. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.41 ERA in 10 career starts versus St. Louis. The Phillies are 14 games better than the underachieving Cardinals, who have been on the road for their last nine games. This is St. Louis' first home game since Sept. 3. So this isn't a good situational spot for the Cardinals. Zach Thompson goes for St. Louis. He's 5-5 with a 4.06 ERA. The Cardinals' bullpen has the eighth-highest ERA in the majors. The Cardinals have a couple of injuries, too. Nolan Gorman is out and Wilson Contreras is questionable. Gorman leads the Cardinals in homers, while Contreras is fourth on the Cardinals in homers and RBI's. | |||||||
09-12-23 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 0-8 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Neither starter, Patrick Sandoval nor rookie Bryan Woo, is in good form. The bullpens have mileage on them. So it's not too big of a task for each team to produce at least four runs. Seattle has done that in five of its last seven games. The Mariners rank 10th in runs and homers. They draw Sandoval, who has surrendered nine earned runs in his past two starts spanning 8 2/3 innings. During this two-game span, Sandoval has given up 12 hits and seven walks. The Angels have the seventh-highest bullpen ERA. Woo is off his second-worst outing of the season. He gave up five earned runs to the Reds in five innings during his last start. I'm not counting on it, but there's a chance Shohei Ohtani returns to the Angels' lineup today. He was nearly ready last night. | |||||||
09-06-23 | Orioles -134 v. Angels | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Maybe the Angels get Shohei Ohtani back in their lineup. Maybe. But even if Ohtani returns from oblique tightness, the Angels are a near auto-fade while the Orioles continue to be a play-on team. The lay price is low enough to back Baltimore. The Orioles have the best road mark in the American League at 45-25. They are 32-16 against lefty starters and going against southpaw Patrick Sandoval. Baltimore has won four in a row. The Angels have dropped five straight and eight of their last nine games. The Angels are 11 games below .500, their worst mark of the season. Kyle Gibson goes for the Orioles. He's 13-8 with a 5.15 ERA. The Orioles get back their best relief pitcher, Yennier Cano, with closer Felix Bautista out for possibly the season. Cano didn't pitch last night because of previous high usage. Sandoval is 7-11 with a 4.19 ERA. The Angels are 4-13 in his last 17 starts. Baltimore ranks in the top-10 versus lefties in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. | |||||||
09-05-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -152 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
Some teams just can't play at funky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one such team. Boston plays outdoors on grass at Fenway Park. The Rays' Tropicana Field is just the opposite - a dome stadium with artificial turf and the smallest seating capacity in the majors. The Red Sox are 1-13 in their last 14 games at Tropicana Field. Expect Boston to be 1-14 following Tuesday's game with a pitching matchup of Kutter Crawford versus Zach Eflin, who would become the AL's first 14-game winner with a victory. Crawford, who has a losing record, already has thrown a career-high 103 innings. He could be hitting a wall with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. Crawford has a 5.29 night ERA. The Rays have the top combination of speed and power in the American League. They rank in the top-four in runs, homers, OPS and steals. Eflin has pitched his best at home where he's 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA. He's in excellent current form, unlike Crawford, with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. The Red Sox could still be missing Alex Verdugo, one of their top-six hitters. He's been out since Sunday with a hamstring injury. | |||||||
09-01-23 | Orioles -113 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks got a cold reality check. They just got swept on the road by the Dodgers losing all three games by a 23-5 margin. Now the Diamondbacks return home to take on the Orioles, who have the same elite record as the Dodgers at 83-50. The Orioles just finished 18-9 in August. They are 41-24 on the road. The price is short to lay with the superior team - Baltimore. Arizona is not nearly in this class. The pitching matchup is Cole Irvin, 1-3, 4.78 ERA, versus Arizona's Zach Davies, 1-5 with a 6.93 ERA. I prefer the crafty lefty Irvin. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom-10 in batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage against southpaws. Irvin has a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore ranks seventh in runs. Davies is a fly-ball pitcher, who has surrendered 20 or more homers in five of the last eight years. | |||||||
08-30-23 | Brewers -109 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The Cubs snapped the Brewers' season-high nine-game win streak, 1-0, last night. Justin Steele outdueled Corbin Burnes in a great pitching matchup. But the Brewers were victimized more than the Cubs by 20 mph winds blowing in. This time there will be just a slight wind blowing out. So weather shouldn't play a part. Given a level playing condition, I like the Brewers to return to their winning ways in a matchup of righthanders Brandon Woodruff versus Kyle Hendricks. Woodruff is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Woodruff is a stud pitcher when healthy - and he's back healthy. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in six starts. Woodruff struck out 11 Padres batters in his last start this past Friday, a 7-3 Milwaukee victory. Backing up Woodruff is a rested Devin Williams, an elite closer. Hendricks is an average starter, nothing special. He's pitched worse at home where he's 2-4 with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers have done far better against righties than southpaws. Milwaukee is 57-37 versus righthanders this season. | |||||||
08-29-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The White Sox are garbage. They are 28 games below .500 because they rank 25th in runs, 26th in ERA and have a dreadful bullpen. Baltimore is the opposite. The Orioles are an American League-best 82-49. They have been the most profitable team for bettors. One reason for this is a below-the-radar pitcher named Dean Kremer. His 4.31 ERA may look unimposing, but Baltimore is 12-3 in his home starts this season. Kremer has made three starts this month at Camden Yards. He's 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those outings. The Orioles crushed the listless White Sox, 9-0, on Monday. That was Baltimore's eighth win in its last 10 games. The Orioles can't afford a letdown with just a 2 1/2-game lead on the Rays in the AL East Division. The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. They've lost by more than one run during each of their past seven defeats. During this span, the White Sox's average loss is by 7.7 runs. I don't see the White Sox getting turned around against this opponent with rookie Jesse Scholtens on the mound. He's 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Scholtens is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox's bullpen, which lacks a legitimate closer, has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball. So I see another kill spot for the Orioles setting up this run line winner. | |||||||
08-28-23 | Astros +111 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-5 | Win | 111 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
The Astros have scored 26 runs in their last two games. Those games were at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Now Houston gets to play at Fenway Park, one of the best hitter's parks, against a lefty starter. The Astros are 25-15 versus southpaws this season for 63 percent. The pitching matchup is Christian Javier versus lefty Chris Sale. Houston ranks second in slugging percentage and OPS against southpaw pitching. The Astros are fourth against lefties in batting average and OBP. Sale has struggled since coming off the injured list. This will be his fourth start since then. He's 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in this span. He's averaged fewer than five innings. The last time Sale went more than five innings was way back on May 20. Boston's bullpen is below average ranking 18th in ERA. Javier moved his record to 9-2 when he beat Boston, 9-4, as a minus $1.20 home favorite last Monday. Now the Astros are underdogs. Doesn't make sense to me. Sale has yet to show he's regained any semblance of his one-time dominant pitching form. The Astros have the stronger bullpen and could catch the Red Sox minus their best power hitter, Rafael Devers. He leads Boston in homers and RBI's. Devers missed Sunday's loss to the Dodgers after getting hit in the wrist during Saturday's game. | |||||||
08-23-23 | Nationals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Luis Severino is the Adam Wainwright of the American League, a once very-good pitcher, who has been absolutely terrible this season. Severino is enduring the worst stretch of his eight-year career. He is 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA during his last eight outings, including seven starts. He's surrendered 19 homers on the season in 65 2/3 innings. His last three starts have been absolutely brutal - a 13.50 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. The Nationals know how to get on base. They rank fifth in the majors in batting average. The Yankees go against lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has a 5.11 road ERA. The Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs against southpaws this season. | |||||||
08-22-23 | Reds +121 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito. Reality is different. The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team. Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games. Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers. Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days. Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA. The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record. | |||||||
08-21-23 | Giants v. Phillies -143 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night. As well as they should. The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth. I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants. Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position. San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings. That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games. | |||||||
08-17-23 | Mets -115 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts. Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season. Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players. The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34. St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season. The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games. | |||||||
08-16-23 | White Sox v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
You know with a total this high on a Cubs home game that wind has to factor. It does. The forecast is for 15 mph winds blowing out to left field. The Cubs have an underrated top-10 offense. They are getting big seasons from a number of below-the-radar hitters, including Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner and recently acquired Jeimer Candelairo. The Cubs rank fifth in the majors in runs, eighth in OPS and 10th in batting average. The White Sox have produced at least five runs in six of their last nine games. They are averaging five runs a game during their last five games with four of those matchups coming against pitchers much better than who the Cubs will pitch against them. The Cubs could start Javier Assad. This could turn into a bullpen game for the Cubs. Both team's closers pitched last night and could be unavailable. The White Sox are expected to start Mike Clevinger. The White Sox's bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA in the league. | |||||||
08-14-23 | Mariners v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
It didn't draw much publicity, but Logan Gilbert had one of the best starts of the season this past Tuesday. Gilbert shut out the Padres for seven innings giving up one hit and no walks while striking out 12. That was at home. The underrated Gilbert is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA when pitching on the road. He has a 2.58 ERA during his last seven starts. Gilbert faces a weak-hitting Royals team that ranks 28th in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers. Opposing Gilbert is Brady Singer, whose season numbers don't impress at 8-8 with a 5.05 ERA. Singer, however, has been below-the-radar since the All-Star break compiling a 2.94 ERA. He has surrendered just seven earned runs during his past four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings with a 27-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. The Royals enjoyed a rare Sunday off. So their bullpen is rested. The Mariners rank 25th in batting average. They do not have one regular batting higher than .266. Seattle has scored fewer than four runs in five of its last seven games. | |||||||
08-11-23 | Reds +100 v. Pirates | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen. The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home. Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. | |||||||
08-09-23 | Giants v. Angels -130 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani. Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league. San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants. Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season. Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night. | |||||||
08-07-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -160 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
The lay price is high here for the Braves even on the run line. It should be. Because the Braves hold all the edges - and these are big edges. The Braves are the road team. So they'll be assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The pitching matchup pits an ''A'' pitcher against a ''D'' type pitcher with Spencer Strider facing Osvaldo Bido. Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA. He leads the majors in strikeouts. If he wins this game, he'll be tied for the most victories in the majors. Strider has been at his best, too, on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. Bido is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Bido is not in good form with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts. He pitches worse at home where he's 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA. Atlanta won't lack motivation having lost two straight games. If you discount a one-run game against the Angels, the Braves are averaging eight runs per game during their last eight games. Each of the Braves' last 11 victories have been by more than one run. | |||||||
08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Lots of big-name hitters here facing two over-the-hill starting pitchers. Sounds like it shouldn't be too difficult for the Dodgers and Padres to reach double-digit runs, right? Not so fast. Let's not forget this game is being played at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors. Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are a combined 79 years old. Neither has good statistics, but they are savvy veterans both acquired at the trade deadline because they know how to navigate through big games such as this one. Lynn's problem is giving up too many home runs. He's surrendered 31 of them this season. But Lynn also has 151 strikeouts in 126 innings, which comes out to an average of 10.7 per nine innings. So he still can fire. The Dodgers' bullpen has shown big improvement leading the league with a 2.84 ERA since June 30 entering the weekend. The underachieving Padres offense ranks 19th in batting average and 13th in runs. Look for Hill to pitch better going from the Pirates to the Padres. The lefty won't lack motivation with this being his first start for San Diego. The Dodgers rank 24th in batting average versus southpaw pitching. This is a huge game for the Padres. They have a rested Josh Hader to go two innings if needed. | |||||||
08-05-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
It's not hard to envision these teams each producing at least nine runs given the starting pitching matchup and the White Sox gutting their bullpen at the trade deadline. Chicago starter Michael Kopech has been a major disappointment after beginning his career with such high promise. He's 4-10 with a 4.49 ERA. That ERA climbs to 5.09 when he pitches at night. The Guardians just faced Kopech six days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. Noah Syndergaard draws the start for Cleveland. Syndergaard has struggled following major arm surgery. He's 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA. | |||||||
08-04-23 | Diamondbacks +119 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
I see a wrong favorite here. The Diamondbacks have the better record, have the superior starting pitcher going and have a rested bullpen since they were idle on Thursday while the Twins weren't. Merrill Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He's been at his finest on the road and pitching at night. He's 6-1 with a 2.74 road ERA. His night ERA is 2.63. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who is off his worst start of the season. He was hammered by the Royals this past Saturday giving up six earned runs on 11 hits, including two homers, in four innings. The Royals rank second-to-last in the majors in runs. Ober may be hitting a wall as he's already thrown a career-high 98 innings. He pitched 56 innings last season. The Twins could be without their home run leader as Byron Buxton has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. | |||||||
08-02-23 | Tigers -118 v. Pirates | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Not many pitchers would turn down a chance to go from the Tigers to the Dodgers. But Eduardo Rodriguez did. He used a no-trade clause in his contract to void a deal that would have sent him to the NL-West leading Dodgers. His Detroit teammates have to respect the heck out of him for doing that. I see the Tigers playing exceptionally hard here to support Rodriguez, who is a much better pitcher than Pittsburgh starter Osvaldo Bido. Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The lefty has a 2.68 road ERA. The Pirates rank in the bottom-seven versus lefties in key batting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. Bido has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. The Tigers were held to one run on Tuesday. But in their previous four games, they averaged five runs per game. | |||||||
07-31-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
It took to the end of July. But the Padres, with their $250 million payroll, finally showed something sweeping the Rangers three games at home. That puts San Diego five games out of a wildcard spot. It probably means the Padres won't be sellers before Tuesday's trade deadline. It also means the Padres will be taking this game very seriously since it's the day before the trade deadline. There's no reason the Padres shouldn't be riding their new-found momentum with a multiple-run road victory here, especially being assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. Colorado also just dealt two of its four best power hitters, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, for prospects. The Padres should score a boatload of runs going from Petco Park to Coors Field and drawing Austin Gomber, who has a 7.19 home ERA. Gomber has pitched 10 innings against the Padres this year and given up 10 runs. Underrated Seth Lugo draws the start for San Diego. Lugo is in good form giving up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Lugo faced the Rockies once this season and held them to one run in seven innings. | |||||||
07-26-23 | Orioles +101 v. Phillies | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Orioles have the second-best record in baseball with a .614 winning percentage. Maybe the oddsmaker forgot about that. Because Baltimore opened an underdog to the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus lefty Ranger Suarez. I'm not going to turn down the Orioles. They have the most road victories in baseball and also the best record in the league against southpaws. Bradish also is a better pitcher than Suarez and Baltimore owns the superior bullpen. The Orioles are 32-19 away from home. They are 23-10 against left-handed starters. Bradish remains below-the-radar. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore's bullpen has the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors. Suarez is in terrible form giving up 15 earned in his last four starts spanning 22 innings. He's permitted 33 hits and 13 walks during this time frame. Wrong team favored. | |||||||
07-25-23 | Mets -116 v. Yankees | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
I could understand Justin Verlander being priced this low if the Yankees were any good. But they are not. The Yankees are just 14-17 in their last 31 games and their record would be even worse if they didn't just sweep the pathetic Royals three games at home. During their past 31 games, the Yankees have played 39 percent of their games against the Royals, Rockies, Cardinals and A's. Those four teams have a combined mark of 141-263. It's obvious the Yankees are much worse without Aaron Judge. The Mets also are just 14-17 in their last 31 games. But they are 3-1 in Verlander's last four starts. They also beat the Yankees when future Hall-of-Famer Verlander last pitched against them on June 14. Verlander gave up one run to the Yankees on three hits in six innings in that game. Verlander has surrendered three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He held the White Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings during his last start this past Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 24 career starts against the Yankees. Domingo German goes for the Yankees. He pitched a perfect game against the A's in Oakland on June 28. But he's a mediocre pitcher. Since then, he's 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. On the season, German is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA. | |||||||
07-24-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -141 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -141 | 3 h 38 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks are a good team, but in circle-the-wagons mode after concluding a 2-7 road trip with a loss on Sunday to the Reds. I expect the Diamondbacks to get back to their winning ways as they draw the Cardinals, one of baseball's biggest underachievers this season, at home. Arizona is 12 games above .500 with a winning home record. St. Louis is 12 games below .500 and has a 22-30 road mark. Morale can't be good for the Cardinals with the Aug. 1 trade deadline looming and rumors they'll be big sellers. The strongest part of this handicap, though, is Adam Wainwright coming off the injured list to get the start for St. Louis. Wainwright is 41. He needs to finally call it quits. Before he went on the DL he could have had the worst three-game starting sequence of any pitcher this year. During his last three starts - spanning just eight innings - Wainwright gave up 17 earned runs! That's a 19.12 ERA. He yielded 24 hits, six walks and four homers during this eight-inning stretch. Ryne Nelson is expected to start for Arizona. His numbers are 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA. Nelson, however, has pitched well in four of his last five starts giving up two earned runs or fewer. One bad outing against the Mets skewed his season numbers. | |||||||
07-23-23 | Mets v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This isn't the best time for the Red Sox to go with a bullpen game. But that's the way they are going with Brennan Bernardino, who hasn't thrown more than two innings in a game this season, the likely opener. The Mets and Red Sox played twice on Saturday so their bullpens carry high fatigue ratings. The Red Sox should do plenty of damage against Mets starter Carlos Carrasco, who is on the downside of his career. Carrasco is having a dreadful season with a 5.35 ERA. He has a bad history against Boston, too, with a 7.47 ERA in 31 1/3 career innings. The Red Sox rank in the top-six in runs, batting average and OPS. | |||||||
07-21-23 | Phillies v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
Below-the-radar starters. Strong bullpens. Wind blowing in. The right elements are in place for there to be fewer than nine runs scored in this Phillies-Guardians matchup. Philadelphia starter Ranger Suarez has allowed three or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts. He has a 2.39 road ERA. The Phillies rank in the top-10 in lowest bullpen ERA. Closer Craig Kimbrel has turned back the hands of time, not allowing a run during his last 16 appearances. The Guardians have hit the fewest homers in the majors. They rank 24th in runs and OPS. Cleveland is going with rookie Gavin Williams, who has a high ceiling. He held the Rangers - the top-scoring team in baseball - to two runs in five innings during his last start. Williams has struck out 11 in his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Backing Williams is a rested Guardians relief corps that has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Phillies scored only seven runs during their recently concluded three-game series against the Brewers. Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in at eight miles per hour. | |||||||
07-19-23 | Padres v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
The Blue Jays are 26-19 at home and have Jose Berrios starting for them. Berrios has been very good at home this season with a 2.83 ERA. Toronto is 8-2 in his last 10 overall starts. Berrios has given up only one run this month in 12 1/3 innings. The Padres are 20-27 on the road and have Yu Darvish going for them. Darvish has been quite mediocre this season posting a 6-6 record with a 4.85 ERA. He's pitched worse on the road where his ERA is 5.52. Darvish has permitted 18 runs during his past 27 1/3 innings. The price is right to back the Blue Jays at home here. | |||||||
07-17-23 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
I find this total to be too high given how bad these offenses are. The Tigers rank in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. The Royals rank among the bottom-three in runs, homers and OPS. Kansas City has been held to four or fewer runs in eight of its last 10 games. Detroit is starting Matt Manning, who has made three starts since he was injured back on April 11. He has a 3.12 ERA in those three starts, not allowing a home run. Manning didn't give up a hit in 6 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays during his last start on June 8. Lyles is one of the worst starting pitchers in the league, but he's been better lately with a 4.24 ERA in his last three starts. | |||||||
07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Note the start time. It's a rare 4 p.m. home start for Anaheim because this is the Sunday Night ESPN game. That's when the shadows are at their worst at Angel Stadium. That makes it extremely rough on the hitters for a couple of hours so a 5-inning Under total could be warranted, too. The oddsmakers opened this total at 9 with juice to the Over. But marketplace activity has moved the total to double-digits, giving it extra value considering the odd start time and what a disadvantage it is for the hitter's. Those playing Over no doubt are considering the mediocre starting pitching matchup of Christian Javier versus Tyler Anderson and that the Angels beat the Astros, 13-12, in a slugfest on Saturday night. This pitching matchup, though, is built into the line, which the oddsmaker thought should be 9. Javier is a decent middle-to-back-end starter. Anderson is better at home where he's 2-0 with a 4.94 ERA. Houston's bullpen experienced a rare meltdown last night. The Astros have one of the deepest relief staffs. They rank eighth in lowest bullpen ERA. The Angels have an All-Star closer in Carlos Estevez. There are a number of key batters who are out with injuries. The Astros don't have Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. The Angels are minus Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury. The underrated Drury has the second-most RBI's on the Angels. Other key hitters could get rested with this being a Sunday game. | |||||||
07-14-23 | Brewers -116 v. Reds | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
This series is a battle for first place in the NL Central. But it's hard to take the Reds fully seriously. The reason why? Graham Ashcraft. Ashcraft gets the start here for Cincinnati and he's not very good. The Reds have trotted him out for 16 starts this season. Ashcraft's record is 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA. His ERA at home is 7.95. Ashcraft has made four career starts versus Milwaukee and is 0-3 with a 10.13 ERA. He last faced the Brewers on June 3 and was rocked for 10 earned runs on nine hits in four innings. The Brewers are going with their ace, Corbin Burnes. He is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 career appearances versus the Reds. Burnes isn't having a Cy Young Award-caliber season like before, but he's still a far, far better pitcher than Ashcraft. So the short lay price on the Brewers makes them a worthy investment. | |||||||
07-11-23 | National League v. American League OVER 7 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 8 m | Show |
The Under has cashed in 13 of the last 16 baseball All-Star Games. That strong 81 percent history is a factor why early money has come on the Under. But this is the time to go against the grain. Given the many elite pitchers who have opted out, this total is too low. Among those who won't be pitching are Shane McClanahan, Clayton Kershaw, Shohei Ohtani, strikeout leader Spencer Strider, ERA leader Framber Valdez, Emmanuel Clase and Devin Williams. McClanahan has the second-lowest ERA in the majors while Kershaw ranks third. Pitching is down in this year's game with all of those elite hurlers out. That leaves some of the National League pitchers to be Josiah Gray, Kodai Senga, Alex Cobb and Mitch Keller. I don't consider any of those four as All-Star caliber. Among the American starting pitchers are Michael Lorenzen, George Kirby, Pablo Lopez and Nathan Eovaldi. These are good pitchers, but far from great. So it's not too much to ask for the top hitters in baseball to produce eight runs. Along with power, there is speed in this year's game. Stolen bases are way up in part because of the larger bags and four of the top seven base stealers are in the game. | |||||||
07-09-23 | Cardinals v. White Sox -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
There's a huge pitching mismatch here not reflected in the line where White Sox righty Lucas Giolito is only a slight home favorite against Cardinals lefty Steven Matz. The White Sox play better at home and they hit better against lefties where they have above average statistics in batting average and slugging percentage versus southpaws. Matz is 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA. He's pitched his way out of St. Louis' starting rotation. This is Matz's first start since May 24. Matz has been at his worst on the road going 0-3 with a 7.14 ERA. Giolito is 3-2 at home with a 2.43 ERA. He has a 23-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. | |||||||
07-08-23 | Mariners v. Astros -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Mariners have surprised the Astros in Houston winning the first two games of this series by the lopsided margin of 15-2. Look for that nonsense to end today. Houston is 12-2 the past 14 times after dropping the first two games of a series. The Astros also are 10-1 following a home loss. The Astros have the stronger offense and better bullpen. They also hold a big starting pitching edge. Seattle is going with rookie Bryan Woo against Framber Valdez, who has a 2.49 ERA and has dominated the Mariners during his career. Valdez is 5-0 versus Seattle with a 1.94 ERA in nine career appearances. | |||||||
07-06-23 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Only the Braves have shown more offense lately than the hot-hitting Reds. Cincinnati is averaging 6.6 runs in its last 17 games. The Reds have homered in 19 straight games. Look for the Reds to continue their onslaught against the Nationals in hot, muggy weather conditions in Washington D.C. Mackenzie Gore, 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA, gets the start following his worst outing of the season. The lefty gave up seven runs on six hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings against the Phillies this past Saturday. The Reds have gone Over 14 of the last 19 times facing a southpaw starter. Gore doesn't figure to get fielding or bullpen help. The Nationals rank in the bottom-three in fielding and relief pitching ERA. The Nationals, who rank seventh in batting average, should contribute to this Over facing rookie Brandon Williamson, who has a 5.56 ERA and 1.40 WHIP during his first nine big league starts. The Reds' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. | |||||||
07-04-23 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Look for double-digit runs to be scored in this matchup. Both the Rockies and Astros have been swinging hot bats and they are going against bad starting pitchers here. The Rockies' bullpen has the second-highest ERA in baseball at 5.03 and the Astros' bullpen has been heavily overworked. Colorado is averaging 6.2 runs in its last five games. The Rockies draw righthander Brandon Bielak, who has failed to impress during several short stints with the Astros. Bielak is up from the minors. He has a 4.37 ERA on the season. Bielak made three June starts for Houston and had a 6.61 ERA in those outings. The Rockies are tied for first for highest batting average against right-handed pitching at .266. The Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times the Rockies have gone against a righty starter. The Astros should do plenty of damage against Colorado starter Kyle Freeland and a dreadful Rockies bullpen. Houston is averaging seven runs per game during its last nine games. Freeland is 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA and an opponent's OPS of .932 during his last eight starts. Freeland has been roughed up for seven homers during his last 39 innings in this span. | |||||||
07-03-23 | Reds v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
A strong wind blowing out to right field, a pitching matchup of Luke Weaver versus Jake Irvin plus two tired bullpens puts me on the Over. Reds starter Luke Weaver has yet to show he can overcome his previous arm injuries. His ERA is 6.96 and he has looked terrible in his previous three starts with a 9.95 ERA during this span. The Nationals are averaging just a tick below five runs a game during their last seven games. Surprisingly, only four teams have a higher batting average than Washington. Irving is 1-4 with a 4.72 ERA. The rookie is 0-3 at home with a 5.28 ERA. The Reds are sixth in the majors in runs. They are averaging 6.6 runs during their last 14 games. | |||||||
07-02-23 | Yankees -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The Yankees are nine games above .500. The Cardinals are 14 games below .500. The Yankees have Gerrit Cole going against Jordan Montgomery. The Yankees' bullpen has the lowest ERA in the majors by a considerable margin at 2.80. The Cardinals' bullpen ERA ranks in the bottom-10. Yet this game is priced near the pick range. That's tremendous value on Cole and the Yankees. Cole is 8-1 with a 2.78 ERA. He's amazingly solid with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts, a 2.70 road ERA and a 2.77 day time ERA. Montgomery, who pitched for the Yankees from 2017 to 2022, has a 4.14 home ERA. The Cardinals are 3-11 in his last 14 starts. | |||||||
06-30-23 | Rays -132 v. Mariners | Top | 15-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
Shane McClanahan says he feels good and is ready to go. That's enough for me to back McClanahan and the Rays at a fair price against the Mariners. Tampa Bay has the best record in baseball at 56-28 and McClanahan is the Rays' best pitcher if not the best pitcher in the league. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 14 of his 16 starts. McClanahan last pitched on June 22 against the Royals, but was pulled after 3 2/3 innings because of back tightness. He said he's fine now and eager to make this appearance. McClanahan is 11-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Seattle has lost four of its last five games, dropping three games below .500. The Mariners are 7-21 the last 28 times they've faced a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. The Mariners rank 27th in batting average and 24th in OPS. The Rays, on the other hand, have a lethal combination of power and speed. They rank No. 3 in homers and first in stolen bases. Tampa Bay also is second in runs and third in OPS. The Rays are going to be a difficult challenge for rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.88 ERA and was shelled by the Yankees and Rangers during two of his last five starts. | |||||||
06-28-23 | Yankees v. A's +137 | Top | 11-0 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The Yankees won't mind seeing the A's move to Las Vegas. The Yankees fare horribly in Oakland. They are 5-14 in their last 19 games at Oakland's Alameda County Coliseum after losing there on Tuesday. The Yankees are a power team. However, Oakland is a huge pitcher's park. The Yankees rely on Aaron Judge, but he's out. The Yankees haven't been good against lefty starters particularly on the road. They face southpaw J.P. Sears and he's been highly effective during seven of his last eight starts. New York is pitching Domingo German. He's been terrible during his past two starts. So I don't mind holding my nose and backing the home underdog A's here. Let's get into specifics starting with Sears. He's hiding below-the-radar having given up two earned runs or fewer in all but one of his last eight starts. Opponents are batting just .199 against him during this span. The Yankees are 4-9 in their last 13 road games versus a lefty starter. They are hitting only .221 against southpaws, which ranks 28th. New York doesn't command the same respect minus Judge. The Yankees are 7-11 since losing Judge to a toe injury. The Yankees are averaging a mere 2.3 runs in their last nine games. German is going through a brutal two-game stretch having surrendered 15 earned runs in his last two outings spanning just 5 1/3 innings. He's allowed 15 hits, four walks and five homers in this time frame going against the Mariners and Red Sox. German has permitted at least one homer in each of his last five starts. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Dave Price | $1,219 |
Sean Higgs | $983 |
Sal Michaels | $924 |
Bobby Conn | $720 |
R&R Totals | $590 |
Juan Carlos Flores | $590 |
Doc's Sports | $498 |
Chip Chirimbes | $484 |
Rob Vinciletti | $470 |
Kiev O'Neil | $464 |