|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-21-22||Padres -108 v. Phillies||Top||2-4||Loss||-108||18 h 42 m||Show|
It usually takes a red-hot pitcher for a playoff team to advance to the World Series. The Padres have that in Joe Musgrove. And for good measure the Padres also have a sizzling closer, Josh Hader.
The pressure is on the Phillies in this Game 3 as this NLCS goes from San Diego to Philadelphia. The Padres came back from a 4-0 deficit to even the series at one apiece with an 8-5 victory this past Wednesday.
San Diego is 18-4 following an off-day. The Padres have Musgrove and a rested Hader going for them in this Game 3 matchup. Musgrove went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA during the regular season. He's been absolutely dominant during the postseason with a 1-0 record and 1.38 ERA in 13 innings against the Mets and Dodgers. Hader is back to being an elite closer. He's struck out the last eight batters he's faced.
Phillies starter Ranger Suarez and Philadelphia's bullpen can't match that. Suarez has one playoff start, which came against the Braves. Phillies manager Rob Thomson pulled him in that game after 3 1/3 innings after Suarez had given up three hits and five walks.
|10-14-22||Dodgers v. Padres +115||Top||1-2||Win||115||25 h 20 m||Show|
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. But I don't think they should be favored in this game with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus Blake Snell.
Gonsolin had a great year with a 16-1 record and 2.14 ERA. However - and this is a big however - he's thrown only two innings in the majors since Aug. 23 when he went on the injured list because of a shoulder injury. Gonsolin figures to be rusty and on a pitch count putting a lot of pressure on a Dodgers bullpen that is largely untested in postseason action.
Snell is a solid pitcher. He enters this game in outstanding form with a 1.88 ERA and 17 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 14 1/3 innings. He has allowed only four earned runs during his last five starts spanning 28 1/3 innings. Snell has a 2.50 ERA and 1.13 WHIP with 56 strikeouts in 39 2/3 lifetime innings against the Dodgers.
The Padres gained much needed confidence against this opponent by defeating the Dodgers in LA on Wednesday to even the series at 1-1.
|10-12-22||Phillies v. Braves -125||Top||0-3||Win||100||19 h 5 m||Show|
There's no secrets at this late stage of the baseball season. The teams and pitchers are all good.
I just see a short lay price on getting the Braves at home down 1-0 in their National League Division Series.
The last time the defending world champion Braves lost on consecutive days at home was way back on April 23-24.
The Phillies got to a weakened Max Fried on Tuesday building a 7-1 lead. Yet the Braves almost pulled it out before losing, 7-6.
The pitching matchup today is Zach Wheeler versus Kyle Wright. This pro-Braves play isn't directed against Wheeler. Both are excellent pitchers.
It's based on the resilient Braves in bounce-back mode at what I see is a shorter-than-expected lay price. Atlanta is 42-13 in its last 55 home games.
|10-11-22||Padres v. Dodgers -1.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||20 h 13 m||Show|
The Padres are 32-27 since the start of August even being reinforced with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader. They aren't at the 111-win elite level of the Dodgers.
This is especially the case in this Game 1 matchup where the Dodgers have one of their aces going in Julio Urias, while the Padres are starting Mike Clevinger.
Clevinger is not in the class of teammates Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who shut down the Mets during their wild card series. Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. He made three starts against the Dodgers this season spanning 13 innings. He was 0-2 with a fat 9.69 ERA.
By contrast, Urias dominated the Padres going 3-0 in four starts against them with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings. Urias had three of those starts in September going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in them. Career-wise, Urias is 6-1 versus San Diego with a 2.19 ERA in 61 2/3 innings.
So I don't see the Padres keeping this one close.
|10-05-22||Cubs -117 v. Reds||Top||15-2||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
Just five days ago, Adrian Sampson faced the Reds. He held them to one run on three hits in seven innings. The Cubs won, 6-1. Chicago has won during each of Sampson's last three starts. His ERA is 1.42 during this span.
Sampson is flying below-the-radar. He's yielded only six earned runs during his last six starts.
The Reds managed a 3-2 victory against the Cubs on Tuesday. Cincinnati is 62-99. The Reds don't want to finish with 100 losses. But the Reds are in this position for a reason - they're terrible. The Tuesday win against the Cubs was just the Reds' third in their last 12 games.
Cincinnati hasn't broken the 3-run barrier in each of their last dozen games. The Reds are averaging two runs per game during this span.
So the Reds are likely going to need a tremendous pitching performance from starter Graham Ashcraft. I wouldn't count on that. Ashcraft is really struggling down the stretch with an 8.10 ERA in his past three starts. Ashcraft shouldn't expect much help from a Reds bullpen that has the fourth-highest ERA in the majors.
|10-04-22||Diamondbacks -110 v. Brewers||Top||0-3||Loss||-110||17 h 8 m||Show|
It's going to be difficult for the Brewers to get excited about this game. They just got eliminated on Monday from playoff contention.
Milwaukee also is facing Zac Gallen. He's been one of the top pitchers during the second half of the season. Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in nine of his last 10 starts. Gallen's ERA during his last three starts is 2.21.
Contrast this with Brewers starter Eric Lauer. He has a 7.84 ERA during his past three starts. Gallen is an ace. Lauer, who is 10-7 with a 3.83 ERA, is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter.
The Brewers have been mediocre for quite a while now going 28-31 in their last 59 games.
|10-03-22||Twins +110 v. White Sox||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||20 h 40 m||Show|
Flying back home from the West Coast after a series with the Padres, the White Sox can't be too excited to wrap up a very disappointing season with this series against the Twins.
The White Sox are 3-9 in their last 12 games. They have lost seven in a row at home.
Minnesota is in an excellent situational spot to beat the White Sox and their 36-year-old starter, Johnny Cueto, who has hit the wall with a 7.71 ERA in his last three starts.
The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has been below the radar. Ober has given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his last nine starts. He has a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts and has dominated the White Sox in two starts this season with a 1-0 record and 0.73 ERA.
|09-28-22||Orioles +116 v. Red Sox||Top||1-3||Loss||-100||8 h 8 m||Show|
This has been a crazy series so far with the Orioles winning, 14-8, on Monday and the Red Sox prevailing, 13-9, on Tuesday.
That was just the Red Sox's third win in their last 10 games.
The Orioles have lost seven fewer games than the Red Sox, who are headed for this first losing season under Alex Cora.
Orioles starter Dean Kremer could restore order. He's been fantastic in his last five starts with a 3-0 record and 2.16 ERA.
The Red Sox are going with Rich Hill, who is 2-4 with a 6.07 ERA at home. The 42-year-old Hill could be hitting the wall. He has a 5.96 ERA during his last five starts.
Wednesday Free Play
Tigers minus $1.25 hosting Royals
The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.
I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.
Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.
The Tigers stayed hot coming from behind to beat the Royals in extra inning last night. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games and has won four in a row. The Royals are 17-36 in their last 53 road games.
I'm going to ride the Tigers at this fairly low price in a pitching matchup of Daniel Lynch versus Matt Manning.
Manning is the better pitcher. He has a 3.43 ERA. Lynch is 4-11 with a 5.06 ERA. Lynch has faced the Tigers three times this season and the results haven't been pretty. He has an 8.53 ERA in those games allowing 12 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings, while giving up four home runs.
|09-27-22||White Sox v. Twins OVER 6.5||Top||0-4||Loss||-120||9 h 36 m||Show|
Totals Under 7 are reserved for excellent starting pitchers. Lance Lynn and Bailey Ober don't fit that description.
It's not difficult at all envisioning both teams scoring at least three runs apiece in this matchup.
Lynn is 7-6 with a 4.02 ERA. He's made two starts against Minnesota this season and has a 9.90 ERA to show for it. The White Sox rank 20th in bullpen ERA. The Twins rank 12th both in batting average and home runs.
The White Sox are averaging only two runs per game during their last five games. But they should have a breakout performance here against Ober, who has a 4.23 ERA in six career starts versus the White Sox. Ober has a 4.50 ERA during his past three starts.
Despite their current struggles, the White Sox have the third-highest batting average in baseball. Minnesota's bullpen is average, ranking 16th in relief pitching ERA.
The Under has won only twice during the last 12 meetings between the two teams.
|09-23-22||Tigers v. White Sox OVER 7.5||Top||5-3||Win||100||18 h 55 m||Show|
Perhaps swayed by the Tigers being one of the teams here, the oddsmaker opened this total too short. I'm expecting at least nine runs to be scored.
The White Sox are facing a mediocre lefty starter while they are going with Lucas Giolito at home.
Giolito has a winning record and 158 strikeouts in 143 2/3 innings. These numbers hide the fact that Giolito has been a major disappointment this season with a 5.07 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His ERA balloons up to 6.61 when pitching at home.
The Tigers scored a combined 16 runs in their previous two games before their last one.
Eduardo Rodriguez gets the call for Detroit. He's 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA. Worse, he's a southpaw. The White Sox have the highest batting average in the majors against lefties at .279. They also rank No. 1 against southpaws in on-base percentage.
The White Sox just saw Rodriguez six days ago. Rodriguez has a 4.91 ERA during his past three starts. Detroit's bullpen was underrated earlier in the season, but it has regressed in part because of overwork. It no longer is dependable.
|09-21-22||Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5||Top||6-1||Loss||-120||12 h 33 m||Show|
The Dodgers have squared off against division-rival Madison Bumgarner for 14 years. LA catches the 33-year-old Bumgarner on the downside of his career. Bumgarner is 6-15 with a 5.01 ERA. He has surrendered five or more runs in seven of his last nine starts with a 7.82 ERA during this span. He has a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings against the Dodgers this season.
LA leads the majors in runs scored while ranking in the top four in all of the major offensive categories.
So not a huge surprise if the Dodgers cover this Over just by themselves.
But the Diamondbacks should pitch in facing Dustin May, who is on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery. This will be just his sixth start. He's likely to be on a pitch count.
Both teams carry a high bullpen fatigue rating following yesterday's doubleheader.
|09-20-22||Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5||Top||6-3||Win||100||10 h 13 m||Show|
Kyle Freeland doesn't come to mind when rating the best pitchers in the National League. Freeland, though, has been excellent this month emerging as Colorado's top starter. He has a 0.93 September ERA in 18 1/3 innings giving up just two runs in three starts.
The Giants have a below average offense. The Under has cashed in 10 of its last 12 games on grass.
Carlos Rodon was San Francisco's original starter. But he was scratched. So this is going to be a bullpen game beginning with John Brebbia, who is 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in 17 career appearances against Colorado. He hasn't allowed an earned run to the Rockies in 5 1/3 innings this season.
I don't mind a bullpen game from the Giants because each of their pitchers should be fresh and able to go all out for strikeouts, which is important for an Under at Coors Field.
|09-16-22||Yankees -119 v. Brewers||Top||6-7||Loss||-119||19 h 31 m||Show|
Teams can't help but have high and lows during the long baseball season. The Yankees were experiencing a low point, but have since rebounded to win eight of their last 10 games. They are averaging eight runs a game during their last four games, all victories.
The Brewers looked like a solid playoff team entering August. But they are a scuffling 19-20 in their last 39 games.
The Yankees hold a starting pitching edge here with Frankie Montas facing Adrian Houser. New York also has a strong bullpen advantage. Yankee relief pitchers have a 2.94 ERA. That's the second-lowest ERA in the majors. The Brewers' bullpen ERA is 3.94, which ranks 16th. The Brewers' relief corps isn't nearly as good minus closer Josh Hader. Devin Williams is now their lone dependable reliever.
Oh, yes, the Yankees also have the most dangerous hitter in baseball, Aaron Judge. He leads the majors by a wide margin with 57 homers. Judge is batting .462 during his last 52 at bats and is on a 15-game on-base streak.
Montas has settled down after a rough patch when he first came to the Yankees. He has a 3.89 ERA. Houser is a borderline bottom-of-the-rotation starter with a 4.61 ERA.
Both teams were idle Thursday. The Yankees' bullpen is fresh. New York is 21-8 following an off day.
|09-14-22||Orioles -132 v. Nationals||Top||6-2||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
I'm going to get behind the Orioles at a reasonable price facing Patrick Corbin, who has been one of the worst starters all season.
Corbin has done more than his share to saddle the Nationals with the second-highest ERA in the majors at 5.06. Corbin is 6-18 with a 6.30 ERA. Washington has a bottom-10 bullpen.
The Orioles are starting Tyler Wells, who is 7-6 with a 3.91 ERA. Wells is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two appearances against the Nationals, including one start. Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said he won't be afraid to use Austin Voth and his top bullpen arms to secure this win since the Orioles are idle on Thursday. Baltimore has the sixth-lowest bullpen ERA in the league.
|09-07-22||Tigers v. Angels UNDER 9||Top||5-4||Push||0||14 h 59 m||Show|
The Angels are a below average offense ranking in the bottom-six in batting average, runs and OPS. They've scored four or fewer runs in six of their last eight games.
But the Angels are the '27 Yankees compared to the Tigers.
Detroit ranks last in the majors in runs, homers and OPS. The Tigers are averaging a puny 2.3 runs in their last eight games.
Toss in two underrated starting pitchers, tough weather conditions and a huge Under umpire and you find this total to be too high.
Detroit starter Drew Hutchinson is 2-7 with a 4.06 ERA. Bad overall numbers. But Hutchinson has been decent during the second half of the season. He hasn't given up more than three earned runs in each of his past seven starts. He has a 3.38 ERA during his last three outings.
Angels starter Patrick Sandoval has been flying under the radar, not allowing more than two earned runs in each of his last six starts. He has a 1.23 ERA during his past three starts.
There's a heat wave on the West Coast. The temperature is expected to be around 100 degrees in LA Wednesday. Making things worse is this is a getaway day game. That means more reserves than normal could be in the starting lineup. The teams are going to want this game to end quickly.
Home plate umpire Pat Hoberg has a two-year track record to oblige them. The Under has cashed 26 of 37 times for 70 percent when Hoberg has been behind the plate during the last two seasons.
|09-05-22||Tigers v. Angels UNDER 8.5||Top||0-10||Loss||-105||22 h 57 m||Show|
Even though the starting pitching matchup doesn't appear strong, this total still is too high given how bad the Tigers and Angels have been offensively.
The Tigers are last in the majors in runs, homers and OPS. They are averaging 2.5 runs in their last six games.
The Angels aren't much better. They rank in the bottom-five in runs, batting average and OPS. The Angels are averaging just 2.6 runs in their last six games.
Tyler Alexander faces Jose Suarez. Neither starter has a good ERA. Alexander, though, beat the Angels, 4-3, on Aug. 20. Suarez is 4-2 with 32 strikeouts during his last six starts.
|09-04-22||Twins +111 v. White Sox||Top||5-1||Win||111||12 h 48 m||Show|
The White Sox are feeling pretty good about themselves after humiliating the Twins, 13-0, on Saturday. Dylan Cease nearly threw a no-hitter coming within one out of the feat. It was a highly emotional victory for the White Sox because of Cease's great effort.
Kudos to Cease for his outstanding effort and tremendous season. But the Twins aren't facing Cease today. They draw Lucas Giolito, who has been one of the more disappointing pitchers this season with a 5.27 ERA. The White Sox are without a number of key batters, including Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada. It remains to be seen if Luis Robert will return to the lineup. He's been in Florida for the birth of his second child.
The Twins are going with Dylan Bundy, who runs hot and cold. Bundy, though, has dominated the White Sox with a 6-0 career record. He's 2-0 versus the White Sox this season with a 2.35 ERA in three starts.
Giolito is in terrible form with a 7.98 ERA in his last three starts.
|08-30-22||A's +105 v. Nationals||Top||10-6||Win||105||18 h 1 m||Show|
When the worst team in the majors is chalk, I'm seriously looking at the underdog even if that team is the A's. On closer examination, Oakland should not be the underdog. The A's have fared better on the road and are playing much better than Washington right now.
Oakland is 5-4 in its last nine games. Oakland's last two games were victories against the Yankees. The Nationals are 2-5 in their last seven games. They have scored three or fewer runs in nine of their last 10 games.
The A's have the superior starting pitcher going, too, in a matchup of Cole Irvin versus Erick Fedde.
Irvin is 6-11 with a 3.16 ERA. He has a 2.71 ERA in night games and is coming off a brilliant start against the Marlins this past Wednesday throwing seven scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and striking out 11.
Fedde is 5-8 with a 4.88 ERA, which climbs to 5.70 when he pitches at night. This is only his second August appearance after coming off the injured list last week.
|08-29-22||Yankees -1.5 v. Angels||Top||3-4||Loss||-110||21 h 33 m||Show|
On the surface this seems like a spot to back the underdog Angels. After all, they just swept three games from the Blue Jays in Toronto while the Yankees dropped their second straight game to the lowly A's in Oakland on Sunday.
Frankie Montas goes against lefty Jose Suarez. Montas is a good pitcher. He started slow when he was dealt to the Yankees but looked back to normal in his last start holding the Mets to two runs in 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts.
Suarez has a 4.19 ERA compared to Montas' 3.84 ERA. Suarez's ERA climbs to 4.81 when pitching at home. Suarez has fattened his record and stats facing the weak-hitting A's twice and Royals once during his last five starts giving up no earned runs in those three appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings.
Suarez is facing a Yankees squad that is first in homers and second in runs. Not exactly the A' and Royals. The Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 games against a southpaw starter. New York also has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times on the road.
|08-28-22||Guardians v. Mariners -141||Top||0-4||Win||100||14 h 25 m||Show|
Cleveland defeated the Mariners in Seattle for the first time in six games Saturday night. The Mariners' bullpen let them down in that loss.
Look for the Mariners to bounce back today in a pitching matchup of Aaron Civale against Robbie Ray.
Civale has yet to fulfill his promise. He's 2-5 with a 5.37 ERA. That ERA shoots up to 6.56 on the road.
Ray isn't having the Cy Young Award season he had in 2021, but he's in excellent current form with a 2.37 ERA in his last three games - all Seattle victories. The lefty is 5-3 with a 2.69 ERA when pitching at home this season. The Guardians rank 25th against lefties in batting average and are 29th in slugging percentage versus southpaws.
Seattle has been one of the hottest teams in the league during the second half of the season winning 40 of its last 59 games.
|08-23-22||Rangers v. Rockies -115||Top||6-7||Win||100||20 h 12 m||Show|
The Rockies are Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde when it comes to their home/road splits. Colorado is 35-31 at Coors Field and 18-39 away from home. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors at .285. That's 20 points better than the next closest team. Colorado also is No. 1 at home in OPS and No. 2 in slugging percentage.
So I find this lay price cheap to back the Rockies against the Rangers at Coors in a pitching matchup of Dane Dunning versus German Marquez.
Dunning is 3-6 with a 4.06 ERA. He's 2-0 with a 2.60 ERA during his last three starts. Note, though, those outings were against weak-hitting teams the A's, Mariners and White Sox. All of them were home, too. Dunning has been much worse on the road where he's 0-5 with a 5.08 ERA.
Marquez is 6-10 with a 5.05 ERA. Marquez, however, has been pitching better lately giving up two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven starts He's gone six or more innings in each of his last eight starts. Marquez has a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in four career starts against Texas.
|08-22-22||Angels v. Rays OVER 7||Top||1-2||Loss||-120||9 h 38 m||Show|
This total is priced too low in a pitching matchup of lefties Tucker Davidson versus Jeffrey Springs.
Davison is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA. He's made two starts this season and his ERA is 7.20 in those outings. The Rays rank ninth in batting average against lefthanded pitching.
Springs is having a good season going 5-3 with a 2.52 ERA. But he's not some ace and has a bad history against the Angels with a 1-2 record and 5.51 ERA. Mike Trout is back playing for the Angels upgrading their offense tremendously.
|08-21-22||Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 9||Top||3-5||Win||100||22 h 34 m||Show|
Baseball players are creatures of habit. But for the Red Sox and Orioles their routine is very different Sunday. They are competing in what has become the annual Little League Classic. ESPN televises this game from Williamsport, Pa., home of the Little League World Series.
Even though it's a 7 p.m. ET start, the players don't get their normal rest coming to Williamsport from Baltimore, which is about a three-hour drive. They must get up early in the morning and go right to the ballpark. That's part of the deal with this game is that the day is spent with the big league teams interacting with kids. That throws off the normal pre-game routine and zaps some strength. Light rain is in the forecast, too, which is a distraction for hitters.
This will be the fifth Little League Classic. Four of them have gone Under the total.
The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta, 9-9 with a 4.28 ERA, versus Dean Kremer, 5-4, 3.58 ERA. Pivetta runs hot-and-cold. Kremer hasn't had good success against the Red Sox in three starts. This is the first time Kremer is facing Boston, though, in a neutral setting.
Several players could miss the game. Tommy Pham didn't play Saturday because of lower back tightness. Eric Hosmer left Saturday's game with back spasms. Cedric Mullins didn't play either. He's dealing with a sore shin.
|08-16-22||Cubs -153 v. Nationals||Top||7-5||Win||100||21 h 31 m||Show|
The gift that keeps giving is back. Stuck with a huge contract they gave to Patrick Corbin four years ago, the Nationals keep trotting him out. Never mind that Corbin has become the worst pitcher in the National League if not all of baseball.Corbin is 4-16 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. He's given up four or more earned runs in each of his last six starts. Washington is 0-9 in Corbin's last nine starts. The Nationals are bad enough without Corbin, owners of the worst record in baseball at 39-78. They are 16-40 in their last 56 games. The Nationals have the highest ERA and WHIP and have committed the third-most errors. Unlike the Nationals, who dealt their two best players - Juan Soto and Josh Bell - at the trade deadline the Cubs held on to their key players, including Wilson Contreras and Ian Happ. The Cubs are in rebuild, too, but their undertaking isn't nearly as massive as the Nationals. The Cubs are a respectable 12-10 in the second half of the season. Justin Steele will oppose Corbin. Steele has been exceptionally sharp lately with a 1.26 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 25-to-2 strikeout-to-ratio during these past three starts.
|08-15-22||Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9||Top||7-3||Win||100||18 h 31 m||Show|
The Under hasn't won the last seven times the Blue Jays have hosted the Orioles. I don't see that streak ending here in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus Yusei Kikuchi.
Baltimore has some underrated pitchers. Bradish isn't one of them. He has a 6.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. The Blue Jays have seen him twice this season getting to him for 14 hits in 9 2/3 innings. Bradish has a 7.45 ERA against them. The Orioles' bullpen got worse during the trade deadline when closer Jorge Lopez was traded.
Toronto is due to breakout after being held to only four runs against the Guardians during a three-game series going against Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill. Bradish is way beneath those starters. The Blue Jays have the second-highest batting average in baseball, rank fifth in runs and seventh in homers.
The Orioles get to see Kikuchi for the third time this season. He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against Baltimore this year, including getting battered for five earned runs in five innings last Monday. The Orioles smacked three homers against him in that 7-4 victory.
|08-10-22||Pirates +1.5 v. Diamondbacks||Top||6-4||Win||100||20 h 55 m||Show|
Way under the radar, Mitch Keller is pitching the best ball of his career. The season numbers show a 3-8 record and 4.21 ERA. But Keller has been pitching great during his last five starts giving up just six earned runs during this 31-inning span.
If given 1 1/2 runs, Pittsburgh would be 7-2 in Keller's last nine starts. One of those losses was 2-0 to the Rockies at Coors Field.
Arizona is pitching Madison Bumgarner, who is on the downside of his career. He's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. Bumgarner has surrendered 14 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings during his last four starts allowing 30 hits and eight walks. He's given up a home run in four of his last five starts.
|08-08-22||Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5||Top||1-5||Loss||-120||19 h 49 m||Show|
The forecast is for the wind to be blowing out 13 mph. So that's a definite plus for the Over. So are the Mets getting to face a rusty starter, who isn't likely to pitch very many innings, and a Reds bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors and gives up the second-most home runs.
Cincinnati just placed Hunter Greene on IL. The Reds dealt Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle at last week's traded deadline. So who's left to start now? The Reds have come up with Justin Dunn, who hasn't pitched since June 17 because of a sore right shoulder. The Reds are likely to be careful with Dunn. That should mean a lot of innings from a Reds bullpen that has the worst ERA in the majors by far at 5.04.
The Mets rank fourth in runs and batting average. They fortified their hitting depth at the trade deadline picking up Tyler Naquin, Daniel Vogelbach and Darrin Ruff.
The Reds will be facing Chris Bassitt, who has a 3.61 ERA. Bassitt has been a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. But he's not Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer.
|08-06-22||Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9||Top||5-11||Win||105||17 h 47 m||Show|
The Nationals give up the most runs and have the highest ERA in the majors. Take a bow Patrick Corbin. He's one of the Nationals most responsible for that with a 4-15 record and 6.57 ERA.
It's a mystery that Corbin still remains in Washington's rotation after his last five starts. This is how bad Corbin has been during these past five outings - 21 innings pitched, 24 earned runs allowed, 39 hits, seven walks and five homers. The Phillies rank fifth in most home runs.
The Nationals can do their part, too, to push this total Over. They are averaging a respectable four runs a game during their last four games. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been much worse at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park where his record is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA compared to 6-1 on the road with a 2.87 ERA.
The weather is a plus, too, for the Over with the wind blowing out at nine-10 mph.
|08-05-22||Rockies v. Diamondbacks -122||Top||5-6||Win||100||22 h 57 m||Show|
The Diamondbacks are a respectable 27-27 playing at home. Colorado plays much worse on the road with a 17-34 away mark.The price is short enough to back the Diamondbacks here especially having this strong of a pitching edge. Colorado starter German Marquez is having a terrible season with a 6-9 record and 5.29 ERA. The Rockies' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. Arizona starter Madison Bumgarner has pitched much better at home where he's 5-3 with a 3.03 ERA. The Diamondbacks were idle on Thursday so they have a fresh bullpen. The Rockies finished a five-game set against the Padres in a high-profile series due to San Diego getting Juan Soto at the trade deadline. The Rockies are much weaker offensively away from Coors Field. They rank 28th in slugging percentage and 26th in OPS on the road. Arizona has won six of its last eight home contests. The Diamondbacks swept the Giants when they last were home.
|08-04-22||Blue Jays -120 v. Twins||Top||9-3||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
The Twins have an above average offense and a solid starter going in Sonny Gray. But they are trumped in both of these areas by the Blue Jays, who lead the majors in batting average, are third in runs scored and sixth in homers. They also have stud Alex Manoah on the mound.
Gray enters this month off a poor July where he posted a 5.92 ERA in five starts. Manoah is 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.37 on the road. Minnesota is averaging 3.4 runs in its last four games.
Toronto is 11-3 in its last 14 games. The Twins are stepping up after hosting the Tigers for three games. Minnesota defeated Detroit, 4-1, on Wednesday. The Twins, though, have lost 22 of the past 28 (78 percent) times following a victory.
|08-02-22||Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 8.5||Top||8-6||Loss||-105||17 h 12 m||Show|
Seattle ranks 23rd in runs and 25th in batting average. And that's mainly factoring in emerging superstar Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners' best player, and Ty France, their lone .300 hitter. Those players are both out with wrist injuries. So it's not a coincidence Seattle is averaging 2.4 runs in its last five games.
I don't expect the Mariners to produce much against Jameson Taillon, who is backed by a Yankees bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA and just added Lou Trivino. Taillon is 10-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He just blanked another bad offense, the Royals, in six innings during his last start. That was a 1-0 victory this past Thursday. Taillon has been at his best at home with a 3.16 ERA.
The Mariners are throwing perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the American League, Logan Gilbert. He's 10-4 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 ratio. Gilbert is at his best on the road where he's 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA. The Mariners have committed the fewest errors in the league and rank fifth in bullpen ERA.
|08-01-22||Orioles +1.5 v. Rangers||Top||7-2||Win||100||19 h 59 m||Show|
The Orioles have been the biggest money-maker this season for bettors. They are 16-7 in their last 23 games. That mark goes up to 21-4 in their last 25 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs, an 84 percent winning percentage.
Texas is 5-10 in its last 15 games.
So I'll ride the Orioles as they move on to Texas to face the Rangers in a pitching matchup of Spencer Watkins versus Jon Gray. Nothing against Gray, who has been pitching well for the Rangers. But Watkins is in good form with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts and Baltimore holds a bullpen edge. Orioles relievers have a fourth-best ERA mark of 3.05 compared to the Rangers' bullpen ERA of 3.79.
|07-31-22||Orioles +111 v. Reds||Top||2-3||Loss||-100||14 h 44 m||Show|
These are two terrible teams, right? Well that's halfway correct. The Reds are 22 games below .500. But the Orioles actually are an above .500 team. They have been the most profitable team by far for bettors in the majors this season.
Once again, the Orioles are mispriced. They should not have opened underdogs to the Reds.
Baltimore is 16-6 in its last 22 games and 27-15 going back to its past 42 games. The Orioles have pulled out 23 come from behind victories, which is the second-highest in the American League.
The Reds are bad and likely to get worse being already active as the Tuesday trade deadline approaches. Gone is Luis Castillo, their best pitcher. Tyler Naquin also has departed. More veterans could be following. That can't help the Reds' concentration, nor team morale.
I certainly don't see why the Reds should be favored from a starting pitching standpoint either with Austin Voth facing rookie Nick Lodolo. Voth is not going deep into the game. He's made six starts and 23 relief appearances. The Orioles are 7-1 in Voth's last eight appearances.
I'm fine with a Baltimore bullpen game. The Orioles have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors at 3.00. Lodolo will be making his fifth start since returning from a 69-day stint on the injured list. He has a 4.08 ERA in those starts. That ERA becomes 7.56 if you count just day games, which this matchup is.
One more thing. The Reds have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21.
|07-30-22||Rangers v. Angels OVER 8||Top||7-9||Win||100||20 h 3 m||Show|
The oddsmaker opened this game short. Given the two listed starting pitchers, it would be surprising if there weren't double-digit runs produced in this game. I seriously question if rookies Glenn Otto of Texas and Chase Silseth should be in big league rotations yet. But since they are - at least for this game - I will gladly take advantage of it.
Otto is 4-7 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. During his last six starts spanning 26 2/3 innings, Otto has permitted 21 earned runs, given up 31 hits and a dozen walks.
Silseth has a 5.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He had a very strong debut against Oakland. However, since then Silseth has made five starts. He couldn't reach the fifth inning in any of those outings. During his last five starts, Silseth has allowed 16 earned runs on 27 hits - including seven homers - in 18 2/3 innings. The Rangers rank in the top-10 in homers.
|07-28-22||Royals v. Yankees -1.5||Top||0-1||Loss||-110||19 h 17 m||Show|
Back at Yankee Stadium for the first time since July 17, the Yankees should be in a mood for a killing after getting swept in their two-game series by the cross-town Mets. The good news for the Yankees is they don't have to travel like the Royals. They also don't have to face Max Scherzer like they did on Wednesday.
The Yankees draw righty Brady Singer, who would be a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter for many teams. The Yankees are 41-19 the past 60 times they've gone against a right-handed starter.
Jameson Taillon goes for New York. He's been better at Yankee Stadium where he's 6-1 with a 3.49 ERA. The Royals' bats have gone cold. Kansas City lost its last two games to the Angels getting shut out by rookie Janson Junk in a 4-0 loss on Wednesday and by Jose Suarez, 6-0, on Tuesday. Taillon and the Yankee bullpen, which has the second-lowest ERA in the majors, are superior to those Angels and their relief pitchers.
The Royals are likely without two of their best players with catcher Salvador Perez out and shortstop Bobby Witt having missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury.
Note that of the Royals' last 10 defeats, all but one have come by multiple runs.
|07-27-22||Angels v. Royals -128||Top||4-0||Loss||-128||13 h 34 m||Show|
Since a 27-17 start, the Angels have been in free fall. Even with their 6-0 win against the Royals on Tuesday, the Angels have lost 15 of their last 19 games. The Angels are without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. They are bad again on the road this season going 18-29 in away games.
The Royals were averaging 5.6 runs and 12.6 hits in winning three in a row until Tuesday's loss to the Angels. Look for Kansas City to get back to winning in a pitching matchup of Janson Junk versus Brad Keller.
Junk's minor league ERA is 3.88. Keller has a 4.16 big league ERA, but pitches better at home and during the day. His home ERA is 3.88 and his day time ERA is 3.05.
|07-26-22||Yankees -105 v. Mets||Top||3-6||Loss||-105||18 h 44 m||Show|
The Mets have been outstanding this season at 59-37. But they are trumped by the Yankees, who are 66-31.
The Mets scored eight runs in their last game this past Sunday against the Padres. However, the Mets had scored only 10 runs during their previous five games for an average of two runs per game. The Yankees have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 16 games. The Yankees are No. 1 in runs and homers. Aaron Judge has a MLB-high 37 homers with 81 RBI's and 80 runs scored.
The Mets can't compete with the Yankees' power. They rank 19th in homers. The Mets' offensive numbers go down when they face left-handed pitchers, which is the case here with southpaw Jordan Montgomery going against Taijuan Walker.
Walker has been superb with a 7-2 record and 2.55 ERA. But Montgomery has been very consistent for the Yankees with a 3.24 ERA. Montgomery is backed by a superior Yankees bullpen that ranks No. 2 in the league in bullpen ERA.
The Mets are well below average against lefty pitching ranking 21st in batting average, 22nd in OPS and 23rd in slugging percentage.
The Yankees have too many edges. The price is right to back them.
|07-25-22||Rangers v. Mariners -137||Top||3-4||Win||100||21 h 9 m||Show|
Until running into the Astros, the Mariners were the hottest team in baseball winning 14 in a row. Now the Mariners go from losing three straight to the 64-32 Astros to the 43-51 Rangers, who just lost two of three to Oakland, the worst team in the American League.
Expect the Mariners to get back on track in a pitching matchup of Glenn Otto versus Chris Flexen.
Otto hasn't proven he is big league caliber with a 5.40 ERA. Otto has given up 18 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Texas is 0-5 in those games. The Mariners just faced Otto eight days ago and put up three earned runs on five hits, including two homers, in six innings during their 6-2 road victory. Seattle is 20-7 the last 27 times facing a righty starter.
Flexen's 3.79 ERA ranks 19th in the American League. He's been especially hot lately going 2-0 with a 1.10 ERA during his past three starts.
The Rangers have lost 42 of the last 58 times on the road against above .500 opponents.
|07-24-22||Rangers -125 v. A's||Top||11-8||Win||100||15 h 34 m||Show|
The A's are going for their first home sweep of the season having won the first two games of their series against Texas. Don't expect the A's to achieve this.
Oakland has the worst record in the American League. A big reason for this is a 14-32 home mark. The Rangers are eight games below .500. But they have a plus run differential. They are a superior team to the A's and have the better starting pitcher going Sunday.
Martin Perez versus Paul Blackburn may seem like a starting pitching draw. It isn't.
Perez is 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA. He's been terrific on the road with a 3-0 record and 2.52 ERA in eight away starts. Texas is 12-2 in Perez's last 14 starts. Both losses came to the Mariners. The A's have the worst offense in the majors ranking last in batting average and OPS, second-to-last in runs and third-from-the-bottom in homers.
Blackburn started the season off extremely well, but he's run out of gas posting a 6.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP during his past six starts spanning 30 2/3 innings. Blackburn also has a terrible history against Texas with an 0-2 record and 10.54 ERA in four appearances.
The Rangers just saw Blackburn 11 days ago getting to him for five runs in six innings. Blackburn gave up four walks in that game, throwing just 55 strikes out of 101 pitches.
|07-23-22||Blue Jays -125 v. Red Sox||Top||4-1||Win||100||15 h 17 m||Show|
It's hard not to overreact to the Blue Jays destroying the Red Sox by 23 runs on Friday. Toronto pounded out 29 hits in winning, 28-5.
Of course it was just one game. But it may take more than a day for the Red Sox to get rid of that embarrassment. But what really puts me on Toronto today besides its four-game win streak and hot hitting is the low lay price in a pitching matchup of Alek Manoah versus Kutter Crawford.
Cutter has a 4.50 ERA. That ERA goes up to 5.09 when he pitches at Fenway Park. Cutter's daytime ERA is 6.43. Manoah has become one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League with a 10-4 record and 2.28 ERA. He's faced Boston twice this year and is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Red Sox.
The Red Sox could be without J.D. Martinez for a second straight game due to back pain, while George Springer could return to Toronto's lineup after sitting out Friday's game to rest a sore elbow.
|07-22-22||Cubs v. Phillies -125||Top||15-2||Loss||-125||20 h 20 m||Show|
The Phillies have played their best ball since firing Joe Girardi going 27-14. The Cubs come out of All-Star break losers of nine of their last 10. Chicago has failed to break the three-run barrier in 10 of its last 11 games.
Kyle Gibson tamed a weak Marlins offense in his last start. He's certainly capable of taking advantage of the struggling Cubs, who are averaging 1.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson has 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts.
The Cubs are starting Justin Steeler, who is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
Short price to lay with the superior home club.
|07-17-22||Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5||Top||5-7||Win||100||14 h 2 m||Show|
The Orioles are averaging six runs per game during their last five games. The Rays are averaging 5.1 runs in their last seven games. There's a weather factor with the wind blowing out at 9-to-11 mph.
Jordan Lyles certainly can't be trusted to hold the score down. Baltimore may not have its best relief pitcher either. Corey Kluber has been pitching well lately, but he's far removed from the dominant Cy Young Award winning pitcher he once was.
So I find this total too low.
Journeyman Lyles has a 4.37 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He's at his worst, too, on the road where his ERA shoots up to 5.52. Orioles closer Jorge Lopez may be unavailable after throwing two innings on Saturday. The one time the Rays saw Lyles this season, they got to him for five runs in five innings.
|07-15-22||A's +1.5 v. Astros||Top||5-1||Win||100||19 h 58 m||Show|
Injuries and a brutal travel schedule have left the Astros extremely vulnerable for Friday's home game against the rested A's.
Oakland was idle Thursday. Houston wasn't. The Astros had to go extra innings to nip the Angels late Thursday night in Anaheim. This means the Astros didn't return to Houston until the wee hours of this morning. Because of this tough travel schedule, Astros manager Dusty Baker said he will be resting a number of his starters.
So at the very least, don't expect to see veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel in Houston's starting lineup. Remember the Astros already are without injured Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. Altuve suffered a bruised leg on Friday so he's almost certainly out.
The pitching matchup is lefty Cole Irvin versus Jose Urquidy, who is replacing original listed starter Jake Odorizzi. The key is can the lowly A's still beat the Astros on the road even if Houston fields a JV type lineup?
Yes. Oakland actually has played much better on the road. The A's are 4-5 in their last nine games. They would be 8-4 in their last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs.
Irvin is a crafty southpaw. He doesn't miss many bats, but he's tough to score against. He has a 3.32 ERA. The Astros rank just 21st in batting average versus lefties.
Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA. The A's just faced him a week ago scoring three earned runs off him. So they are familiar with Urquidy. If the Astros decide to go back to Odorizzi, they'll be going with a pitcher whose home ERA is 4.41. The A's are the worst-hitting team in the majors. But their offense has shown some spark lately averaging eight runs per game during their last three games. The Astros may hold back their closer and best reliever, Ryan Pressly, after he pitched two innings on Friday.
Houston would be 4-6 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs.
|07-14-22||Astros -151 v. Angels||Top||3-2||Win||100||19 h 35 m||Show|
The Astros lost in embarrassing fashion in their showdown game against Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday. But I see Houston bouncing back in a much more favorable pitching matchup of southpaws Framber Valdez versus Reid Detmers. Houston has won 46 of its last 65 games. The Astros are 12-3 during their past 15 games. The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games. They have lost 16 of their past 23 home contests. Valdez has been tough on the road with a 5-2 away mark and 1.75 ERA. He has a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels rank among the bottom six against lefthanded pitching in slugging percentage, batting average and OPS. Detmers isn't in Valdez's class. He's not in good form either with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts. The Astros have hit the fifth-most homers against southpaws in the league. The Angels still could be minus Mike Trout. He left Tuesday's game due to back spasms and did not play on Wednesday. The Angels had indicated Trout may need to miss a couple of games because of the injury.
|07-13-22||A's +1.5 v. Rangers||Top||2-5||Loss||-125||10 h 37 m||Show|
I'm not going to land on the A's very much. But with Paul Blackburn getting the start and Texas not playing well, I'll get involved with Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs.
Blackburn is the A's best pitcher. He's 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA. Blackburn has been tremendous on the road where he's 5-0 with a 1.28 ERA.
Oakland has played better on the road. The A's are eight games below .500 away while a staggering 21 games below .500 when home.
If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 8-3 in their last 11 games.
The Rangers are going with Jon Gray, who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Gray is never going to live up to the one-time hype of being a No. 1 type starter. He's been decent lately, but I would take Blackburn above him especially given how poorly Texas has been playing. The Rangers are 4-8 in their last dozen games. They would be 3-9 during this span if giving up 1 1/2 runs.
|07-12-22||Red Sox v. Rays +110||Top||2-3||Win||110||17 h 55 m||Show|
Chris Sale can't be expected to go deep into this game having not pitched in the majors this season because of a rib stress fracture. Sale's rehab in preparing for his season debut was just 11 1/3 innings of minor league work with Boston's rookie league team, Double-A team and Triple-A team.
Rays starter Corey Kluber isn't the dominant Cy Young Award winner of years past. But he's still solid with a 3.62 ERA. The Red Sox know this first-hand. Kluber just faced Boston six days ago at Fenway Park and threw six shutout innings, giving up three hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-1 victory. Kluber is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA when pitching at Tropicana Park this season.
The Red Sox entered this series in a letdown frame having just taken two in a row from the Yankees, including a big 11-6 home win in the Sunday Night ESPN Game. The Rays, on the other hand, had much to prove returning home after being swept three games by the lowly Reds in Cincinnati.
|07-11-22||White Sox v. Guardians +104||Top||4-8||Win||104||18 h 15 m||Show|
Lance Lynn has yet to show anything since coming off the injured list. He has a 5.33 ERA. He just gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Wednesday. So I don't get him opening as a road favorite against the Guardians and Cal Quantrill.
Quantrill is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.86 ERA. He has been better at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA.
The White Sox offense has been a disappointment this season ranking 20th in runs and 27th in homers. The White Sox entered the weekend with the highest swing rate in the American League at pitches outside the strike zone at nearly 36 percent.
|07-10-22||Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9||Top||6-11||Loss||-100||18 h 52 m||Show|
No more drawing rookie starting pitchers. The Yankees are going to see veteran Nick Pivetta after the Red Sox have started a rookie pitcher for four straight games. Pivetta is having a solid season going 8-6 with a 3.68 ERA. Jameson Taillon has been solid, too, for the Yankees with a 9-2 mark and 3.63 ERA. He's backed by the second-best bullpen in the majors as Yankees relievers have the No. 2 lowest ERA in the league at 2.68. The Yankees won't have to face All-Star 3B Rafael Devers. He's out with a sore back. Slated home plate umpire Tripp Gibson III has an Under bias. The Under is 38-23 (62 percent) in his games behind the plate during the last three years.
|07-08-22||Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5||Top||2-0||Win||100||17 h 55 m||Show|
Zach Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA solidifying his place as one of the top righthanders in baseball. He gets to face a scuffling Cardinals squad that has scored a puny seven runs in their last five games. Only once in their past eight games have the Cardinals topped three runs.
Adam Wainwright still is a very good home pitcher. His ERA when pitching in St. Louis is 2.25. Wainwright doesn't have to worry about facing the Phillies' most dangerous hitter with Bryce Harper out.
Weather-wise, the wind is blowing in from eight-to-10 miles per hour.
|07-07-22||Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
The talent-rich Dodgers are 52-29. Of those 52 wins, 47 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a monster favorite - there's a 90 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games.
LA is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cubs are 4-10 in their past 14 road games. The Cubs have lost six in a row to the Dodgers.
Not only do the Dodgers have a huge lineup edge, but also in starting pitchers with Mark Leiter Jr. going against Cy Young Award candidate Tony Gonsolin.
Leiter was out of the majors the last three years until surfacing this season. He has a 4.85 ERA and is only in Chicago's rotation because of injuries to other pitchers.
Gonsolin is bidding to become the first 11-game winner this season His ERA of 1.54 is the best in the majors.
|07-05-22||Cardinals +130 v. Braves||Top||1-7||Loss||-100||17 h 1 m||Show|
I guess the Braves have to be favored at home here in a pitching matchup of Cardinals rookie Andre Pallante versus Ian Anderson.
But based on the current form of these two starters, St. Louis is the team that should be a hefty favorite.
Pallante has been brilliant with a 2.10 ERA. His road ERA is even better at 1.31.
Anderson, on the other hand, has been terrible with a 7.82 ERA in his last three starts. His home ERA this season is 6.28. The Braves are without their star closer, Kenley Jansen, too.
So you would be Thick as a Brick if you backed Ian Anderson in this spot.
|07-04-22||Giants v. Diamondbacks +1.5||Top||3-8||Win||100||17 h 29 m||Show|
Nothing against Carlos Rodon, who has pitched well this season. But the Giants aren't playing nearly well enough right now to be laying this high of a price especially on the road.
The Giants, losers of 10 of their last 13 games, take on an old teammate, Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco is averaging a puny 2.6 runs in its last six games. Bumgarner has pitched his best at home, giving up two runs or less in seven of his eight home starts.
If you discount a 4-0 loss to the Padres, the Diamondbacks are averaging 7.8 runs during their last five games.
Certainly the Diamondbacks are capable of upsetting the Giants given San Francisco's struggles, but I'll lay a short price to have the insurance of 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Arizona would have a winning record in its last 18 games if given 1 1/2 runs.
|07-03-22||Cardinals v. Phillies -150||Top||0-4||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
The Phillies have been bet up in this Sunday night ESPN matchup for good reason.
Zach Wheeler is pitching at home. Wheeler has a 1.85 home ERA this season. He's been at his best, too, in night games with a 2.06 ERA in evening games.
Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright is having a solid season, but he won't be throwing to his batterymate of 17 years with Yadier Molina out due to a knee injury. The Cardinals not only lose Molina's Hall of Fame-caliber defense, but his replacements can't hit. Rookie Ivan Herrera is batting .111 and Andrew Knizner is hitting .185.
St. Louis has lost eight of its last 11 road games and has lost six of its past eight games in Philadelphia.
|07-02-22||Diamondbacks v. Rockies -133||Top||7-11||Win||100||19 h 15 m||Show|
The Diamondbacks are finding out what the White Sox knew: Southpaw Dallas Keuchel is washed-up. Keuchel has an 8.31 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. He has just four more strikeouts than walks. Keuchel isn't going to get well pitching against the Rockies at Coors Field. The Rockies have the highest home batting average in the majors. They also rank No. 1 in OPS at home and No. 2 in slugging percentage. The Rockies are at their best when playing home against below .500 teams having won 36 of the past 52 times against them for 69 percent. Arizona stomped on Colorado in the opener of this series on Friday. I don't expect the Diamondbacks to repeat that today. The Rockies had just taken two of three from the Dodgers at home. Even with that loss, Colorado still has defeated Arizona seven of the past nine times at Coors Field. Colorado starter Austin Gomber is overdue to come in with a big home game. The lefty went 5-1 with a 2.09 ERA in nine home starts last season for the Rockies. Arizona is 21-43 in its last 64 games when facing a southpaw starter.
|07-01-22||Rangers v. Mets -1.5||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||18 h 43 m||Show|
Losers of three in a row, the Mets haven't dropped four straight games all season. I don't see it happening here. Neither does the oddsmaker, who has made the Mets close to a 2-to-1 favorite to beat the Rangers.
I see this as a kill spot for New York. So I'm going to knock down that heavy juice by backing the Mets on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs.
Why such confidence in the Mets? New York's last two defeats occurred to the powerful Astros. Discount those two games and the Mets would be 24-10 at home. Even with those two losses, the Mets still have won 13 of their last 17 home games.
New York is stepping well down in class facing the below .500 Rangers. Texas is stepping way up in class having played its last six games against the Royals and Nationals, whose combined record is 56-96.
I like the pitching matchup very much, too, It's Glenn Otto versus Chris Bassitt.
Otto has tailed off. He has a 5.31 ERA on the season. Otto's ERA during his last three games is even worse at 6.23. The Nationals got to him for six runs in two innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Mets rank fourth in runs. The Nationals are 24th in runs.
Bassitt has been steady especially when pitching at Citi Field where he has a 3.16 home ERA. Bassitt has a 2.53 ERA in his last three starts and lifetime against the Rangers is 5-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 appearances, including nine starts.
|06-30-22||Reds v. Cubs -118||Top||7-15||Win||100||18 h 2 m||Show|
Laying a short price against the Reds on the road rarely is a bad thing even when the home team is the Cubs.
Cincinnati is 14-25 on the road this season. The Reds are 3-9 in their last 12 games.
The Cubs are 4-3 in their last seven games. During this span they are averaging 6.2 runs a game.
So I feel confident backing the Cubs here. The pitching matchup is Reds rookie Graham Ashcraft versus crafty veteran Kyle Hendricks.
Ashcraft has been impressive with a 4-1 record and 3.27 ERA. He limited the Giants to two runs in eight innings during his previous start this past Friday. Prior to that, however, Ashcraft was battered for 10 earned runs in his two previous starts spanning 9 2/3 innings. During that two-game time frame, Ashcraft gave up 17 hits, two walks and two homers.
Hendricks also is coming off an excellent start. He threw 7 1/3 shutout innings against the Cardinals this past Friday. Hendricks' night ERA is a respectable 3.78.
|06-29-22||Astros -120 v. Mets||Top||2-0||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
Never mind that Justin Verlander is 39. Don't worry about Verlander coming off Tommy John surgery. Verlander is as dominant as ever. He proved that again this past Friday beating the powerful Yankees by giving up just one run on four hits and one walk in seven innings. Verlander is 9-3 with a 2.22 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 84-to16. The Mets are 3-5 in their last eight games. They've lost six straight to the Astros, who are 9-3 in their last 12 games. Mets starter Taijuan Walker also has been good this year with a 6-2 record and 3.03 ERA. His last three starts, though, have come twice against the Marlins and Angels, both of whom have below average offenses. Walker is not in Verlander's stud class and the Astros' relief staff has an ERA of nearly a run lower than the Mets' bullpen. It's rare to be able to back Verlander at this low of a price range. So I'll take it.
|06-28-22||Braves v. Phillies UNDER 8||Top||5-3||Push||0||12 h 28 m||Show|
The oddsmaker opened this total too high as I'd be surprised if there were more than seven runs scored.
Philadelphia is without Bryce Harper. Atlanta could be without Ronald Acuna. But it's not just the absence of those two superstars. The pitching matchup is Charlie Morton versus Zach Wheeler.
Wheeler has a 2.77 ERA. He's at his best when pitching at home where his ERA shrinks to 1.49. Wheeler had a 2.38 home ERA last season. The Braves are averaging three runs in their last three games. Wheeler faced the Braves on May 23. He allowed two runs in 6 2/3 innings and struck out a season-high 10 batters.
Morton should hold up his end, too, based on current form, no Harper and the Phillies being slightly below average against righthanded pitching.
Morton has been dominant in his last two starts giving up two earned runs in 14 innings. He's only allowed six hits during this span with 20 strikeouts and no walks. Morton has struck out 40 in his last four starts spanning 25 innings.
|06-27-22||Rangers -132 v. Royals||Top||10-4||Win||100||9 h 18 m||Show|
Kansas City has the second-worst record in the American League in front of only Oakland. One reason for this is you have to go back to April 19-21 to find the last time the Royals won a home series. I don't see the Royals getting off to a good start in the opening game against the Rangers today.
It's a battle of lefty starters, Martin Perez versus Kris Bubic. That favors the Rangers more than the betting line shows.
Perez is having a career season with a 5.2 record and 1.96 ERA. Perez is in stellar form allowing just one run in his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Kansas City ranks 27th in runs and homers.
Texas is 15-10 versus southpaws this season, including 7-1 the past eight times facing them. The Rangers should be in line for a strong offensive performance as Bubic has a 7.41 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in 34 innings this season.
The Rangers have won in 10 of their last 14 visits to Kansas City.
|06-26-22||Dodgers -113 v. Braves||Top||5-3||Win||100||18 h 33 m||Show|
This series has taken on added significance with Freddie Freeman returning to Atlanta. The Braves got past the Dodgers, 5-3, on Saturday. Prior to that, though, the Dodgers had won five of six, winning those games by an average of 4.8 runs.
LA has a huge edge in this matchup, not reflective of this short line with a pitching matchup of Tony Gonsolin versus rookie Spencer Strider.
Gonsolin has been the Dodgers' best pitcher with a 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. The Dodgers are giving up the fewest runs per game, while scoring the most runs per game.
The league is starting to figure out Strider, who was clobbered for six earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings against the Giants during his last start this past Tuesday.
|06-24-22||Reds v. Giants -1.5||Top||4-2||Loss||-100||9 h 19 m||Show|
The Giants just concluded a frustrating series against the sizzling Braves where they lost three of four, all by one run.
I see the Giants taking their frustrations out on the hapless Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, are 11-23 on the road and have lost seven in a row with six of those defeats occurring by more than one run.
The oddsmaker sees things this way, too. So to avoid the heavy juice, I'm banking on the Giants to win by more than one run.
Alex Cobb is due to pitch much better. The Reds have below average offensive numbers despite playing in an outstanding hitter's park. Cobb is backed by a far superior bullpen.
The Giants already have faced rookie pitcher Graham Ashcraft, seeing him late last month. Ashcraft pitched well against San Francisco back then. I'm not expecting a repeat. The Giants are averaging five runs per nine innings against righthanders.
|06-23-22||Astros v. Yankees -121||Top||6-7||Win||100||18 h 28 m||Show|
The Yankees are in their own tier in the American League. They are the best team in baseball with a .739 winning percentage. The Yankees are going for their 19th win in their last 22 games at home against the Astros. I see no reason not to get involved with the Yankees at this short home lay price.
The Astros are good. But they aren't as strong as the Yankees. New York is first in runs scored. Houston ranks 17th. The Yankees have won 81 percent of their home games. They have won 11 of their last 16 home contests against Houston.
Houston is going with Framber Valdez on the mound. I like Valdez. But I also like Yankees starter Jameson Taillon, who is having a huge season with an 8-1 record and 2.70 ERA. New York has better bullpen depth than the Astros, too.
This represents a rare opportunity to back the Yankees at more than a fair price.
|06-21-22||Blue Jays v. White Sox UNDER 9||Top||6-7||Loss||-105||9 h 40 m||Show|
I don't see double-digit runs being produced in a pitching matchup of righties Kevin Gausman versus Dylan Cease.
Gausman is one of the better pitchers in the American League and Cease is very good, too, with a 2.91 ERA and ranking fifth in the league in strikeouts.
The White Sox hit righties much worse than they do lefties. Gausman is 1-0 lifetime against the White Sox with a 2.33 ERA in five appearances.
Both pitchers should get a major boost with Doug Eddings scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He's known for his generous strike zone. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of Eddings' home plate games during the last three years.
|06-19-22||Royals -130 v. A's||Top||0-4||Loss||-130||16 h 53 m||Show|
You know the Royals must be playing a really bad opponent with a terrible starting pitcher to be installed as road favorites in this range.
Well, they are: Oakland.
Dumpster fire is too kind of a description to call the A's at home. Oakland is 3-22 in its last 25 home games, including losing its last eight. The A's have lost 15 of 17 overall, which now gives them the worst record in baseball with a .333 winning percentage.
Still think this price is too high to lay?
I certainly don't with a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Jared Koenig.
Singer is 3-1 with a 4.24 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 3.38 when he pitches on the road. Singer has had only one horrendous start this season. That came against the Astros, a far stronger hitting club than the A's, who rank in the bottom-two in runs, batting average and homers. Oakland has been shut out in 12 percent of its games.
Koenig has made two starts spanning a total of eight innings. He's allowed 14 hits, including two homers, and four walks during this span for an 11.25 ERA and 2.25 WHIP.
The Royals have shown improvement lately unlike the A's, winning five of their last nine games.
|06-17-22||White Sox +1.5 v. Astros||Top||3-13||Loss||-135||20 h 54 m||Show|
The Astros return home after three games on the road against the Rangers, fat and happy with a nine-game lead in the AL Western Division. The White Sox have more of a sense of urgency in a dogfight with the Twins and Guardians in the AL Central Division. The White Sox got well at the expense of the Tigers sweeping three games from them. Chicago has been extremely tough on left-handers the past few years and draw southpaw Framber Valdez. He is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA in five home starts. The White Sox rank either first or second against lefty pitching in batting average, slugging percentage, on-base percentage and OPS. Lucas Giolito gets the start for Chicago. He's 4-2 with a 3.88 ERA. The strikeouts have been there for Giolito, who has fanned 70 in 53 1/3 innings. He's been excellent at Minute Maid Park with a 1.57 ERA in three starts there against Houston. The Astros actually are a below average scoring team at home, producing 3.8 runs a game. That ranks 23rd. Houston would be 7-12 in its last 19 games if minus 1 1/2 runs.
|06-15-22||Guardians v. Rockies +100||Top||7-5||Loss||-100||19 h 22 m||Show|
The Rockies are a strange team. They are bad on the road, but tough at home especially against lefthanded pitching. The Guardians are weak versus southpaw pitchers. Colorado has these edges going and the price is right to back them in a pitching matchup of lefties Konnor Pilkington versus Austin Gomber. Pilkington has a 3.57 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. His last three outings have occurred against three weak-hitting teams - Royals, A's and Tigers. The Rockies hit .282 against lefties. That's the second-highest mark in the majors. Pilkington draws them at Coors Field, the premier hitting park in baseball. Gomber has proven he can pitch effectively at Coors with a 3.50 lifetime ERA there in 15 starts and an impressive 1.17 WHIP. The Guardians are 23rd in batting against lefties. They also rank second-to-the-bottom in slugging percentage against southpaws.
|06-14-22||Brewers +142 v. Mets||Top||0-4||Loss||-100||18 h 47 m||Show|
I don't feel the Brewers should be underdogs to the Mets here. I see no starting pitching edge to the Mets with Andrian Houser facing Chris Bassitt. The Brewers hold a big advantage on the mound in the later innings with setup man Devin Williams and ace closer Josh Hader.This is the Mets' first home game since a 10-game West Coast trip that concluded this past Sunday. So the spot isn't ideal for the Mets. Houser is one of the better bottom-of-the-rotation type starters. He has a 0.00 ERA against the Mets lifetime in 3 1/3 innings. Houser's ERA in night games this season is 2.08. Bassitt broke into the big leagues eight years ago. He had spent his entire time in the American League until this season. National League teams have figured him out as Bassitt has allowed 22 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 26 innings. During this 26-inning span, Bassitt has given up 31 hits and 11 walks. These starts all came against NL teams. The Brewers are 5-1 the past six times they've been road 'dogs. They also have defeated the Mets in 20 of the past 28 games.
|06-12-22||Orioles v. Royals OVER 9.5||Top||10-7||Win||100||4 h 58 m||Show|
Both teams are swinging hot bats and going against bad pitchers here. The temperature sets up well, too, for a high scoring game with the thermometer expected to reach into the 90's.
The Orioles have scored 5 or more runs in six of their last nine games. Kansas City is averaging 6.7 runs in its last four games.
Dean Kremer starts for Baltimore. He has a 6.23 ERA. That ERA is actually below his career mark of 7.84. He has a 1.80 WHIP. Why is he in a big league rotation? Good question.
The Royals are starting Brad Keller, who is 1-7 with a 4.19 ERA. That ERA balloons to 6.31 if you go by his last six starts.
Both bullpens are well below average.
|06-11-22||Marlins v. Astros -1.5||Top||5-1||Loss||-115||14 h 26 m||Show|
The Astros had a frustrating Friday losing, 7-4, to the Marlins at home. Houston stranded 14 runners in scoring position in that defeat. I'm looking for the Astros to get their revenge and redeem themselves in today's game with a pitching matchup of lefties Braxton Garrett versus Framber Valdez. Garrett has pitched all of 3 1/3 innings this season. He has a 10.80 ERA. This could very well turn into a bullpen game for the Marlins - and it won't be featuring their best relievers. Miam's bullpen had to go 4 2/3 innings to get Friday's win. The Astros are 14-5 at home and 14-5 when facing lefty starters. Valdez is in excellent form going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA in his last three starts.
|06-09-22||Cardinals +1.5 v. Rays||Top||1-2||Win||100||13 h 27 m||Show|
The Cardinals are trying to avoid a sweep here. The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus lefty Shane McClanahan.
I like the Cardinals' chances of hanging in with Mikolas, who has had nine of 10 good starts this season. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 80 percent of his starts. Mikolas has a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
McClanahan has pitched well, too, this season. This isn't a play against him, but taking 1 1/2 runs on what I believe is an inflated Rays' price.
The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 27 games against a southpaw starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, St. Louis would be 14-6 in its last 20 games.
|06-04-22||Tigers v. Yankees -1.5||Top||0-3||Win||100||13 h 52 m||Show|
At 37-15, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. They just pounded the Tigers, 13-0, on Friday. Expect more of the same Saturday so I have no qualms about laying New York on the run line as the Yankees go for their ninth win in their last 11 games.
The Yankees hold both a strong hitting and pitching edge. New York leads the majors in homers and ranks fifth in runs. The Tigers aren't likely to slow down the Yankees' powerful attack starting rookie Beau Brieske. He is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Brieske has permitted 10 homers in seven starts.
Yankees starter Luis Severino has looked good on his comeback trail. He's 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. The Yankees are 7-2 in Severino's starts this season with all the victories except one coming by more than one run.
Detroit is last in runs and homers. The Tigers are averaging 2.81 runs a game, which is the lowest in the majors since 1968. Detroit has been even worse on the road averaging 2.2 runs away from home.
|05-31-22||Reds v. Red Sox -140||Top||2-1||Loss||-140||17 h 29 m||Show|
I'm not sure why, but Luis Castillo still commands some respect from the oddsmaker. Otherwise why else would the Reds only be midsized road underdogs?
So I find this to be that rare spot where there is value on the home favorite. The Reds have the worst road record in the majors at 7-19. They have the worst pitching in the league and rank 26th in batting. Cincinnati is below average in just about every offensive category.
The Red Sox rank third in batting and have scored the fifth most runs. I don't see Castillo, an underachiever given his high ceiling, stopping Boston at Fenway Park. Castillo is off to a slow start again this season with a 1-2 record and 4.35 ERA.
Boston is off an embarrassing, 10-0, Memorial Day home loss to the Orioles yesterday. The Red Sox certainly shouldn't lack motivation following that stinker. Before that loss, though, the Red Sox were 9-3 in their last 12 games while averaging 8.6 runs during their previous five games. The Red Sox have won the opening game in five of their last six series.
Boston starter Michael Wacha has looked good with a 3-0 record and 2.83 ERA. He dominated the Reds during his years with the Cardinals going 12-2 with a 2.81 ERA in 23 career appearances.
|05-30-22||Braves v. Diamondbacks +105||Top||2-6||Win||105||19 h 41 m||Show|
Perception doesn't match reality here.
The perception is the defending world champion Braves are good and the Diamondbacks, losers of 110 games last year, are terrible. This isn't right.
Atlanta is 23-25. Arizona is 23-26. Note, too, that nine of Arizona's losses have occurred to the Dodgers, who have the best lineup in baseball. The Diamondbacks are 18-13 outside of the NL West Division.
Not only are the Diamondbacks home, but they have a huge edge in starting pitchers with rookie Spencer Strider opposing Zac Gallen. This will be Strider's first big league start. His 11 appearances this season have all come in relief.
Gallen has been an underrated monster this season. He's made eight starts. All have been excellent except one. Gallen has held opponents to one or fewer earned runs in six starts and two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts. Gallen has a 2.22 ERA and 0.83 WHIP.
Gallen faced the Braves once last season - his only appearance against them - and tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit ball. The Diamondbacks are much better this season while the Braves have yet to get in gear.
|05-27-22||Blue Jays -105 v. Angels||Top||4-3||Win||100||19 h 9 m||Show|
The Blue Jays' dangerous lineup has underachieved this season - up until now. Toronto is averaging seven runs in its last two games.
The Blue Jays got to Shohei Ohtani for five earned runs in six innings, including smacking two homers, in a 6-3 victory against the Angels Thursday night. Now Toronto draws rookie Chase Silseth.
Silseth has a 2.61 ERA during his first two big league starts. Both of those starts, though, were against the weak-hitting A's, who are last in batting average and second-from-the-bottom in runs.
But what really attracts me to Toronto is the low lay price with Alek Manoah pitching. He just may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Manoah hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during any of his eight starts this season. His 1.62 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors.
|05-24-22||Mets v. Giants -127||Top||12-13||Win||100||19 h 29 m||Show|
Enough is enough. I want the Giants off an embarrassing 13-3 home loss to the Mets with their best pitcher, Logan Webb, going for them.
The Mets have been a nice surprise, but their offense lacks consistency. They ranked 21st in homers and have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last eight games.
Webb was brilliant last season with a 2.97 ERA. The Giants have won six of his eight starts this season. Webb is at his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA. He's only given up two homers in his eight starts.
Mets starter Chris Bassitt is a decent starter. But he's not in Webb's elite class.
|05-18-22||Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 7||Top||4-11||Loss||-115||10 h 35 m||Show|
Both games in Tuesday's doubleheader between these two teams went Under with a total of 11 runs scored in the two games. I see another low-scoring game here. The main reason for this is Mets starter Max Scherzer. He has a 2.55 career ERA against St. Louis in 14 starts. The Cardinals lineup has a combined batting average of only .156 against Scherzer. Converted Cardinals starter Jordan Hicks is starting to get stretched out and could go deeper into the game than he has been. Hicks and the Cardinals relief pitchers won't have to deal with Mets star outfield Starling Marte, who is out.
|05-16-22||Astros +106 v. Red Sox||Top||3-6||Loss||-100||20 h 45 m||Show|
If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it.
OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category.
The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games.
Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter.
Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts.
Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season.
|05-05-22||Rays v. Mariners OVER 6.5||Top||4-3||Win||100||12 h 11 m||Show|
Shane McClanahan and lefty Robbie Ray are big strikeout pitchers. But this total is too low especially with the bullpens expected to pitch at least one-third of the way.
The Rays have a top-10 offense. They have scored 19 runs in their last three games. The Over is 7-1-1 the last nine times the Rays have faced a lefty starter.
The Mariners scored just two runs in getting swept three games by the Astros.
Seattle, though, was hitting into tough luck. The Mariners hitters were working the count well to set up positive situations, but a number of their hard hit balls against the Astros were right at fielder's. I expect their luck to change for the better here.
|05-03-22||Nationals v. Rockies -148||Top||10-2||Loss||-148||19 h 22 m||Show|
The Rockies' strength is beating bad teams at home. That was proven again this past weekend when Colorado swept three games from the Reds. Now the Rockies get another bad team, the Nationals, and get to face a horrible starting pitcher - Erick Fedde.
Colorado starter German Marquez is due for a good game. The same can't be said for Fedde, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Fedde had a 5.47 ERA last season and he's been even worse this year with a 6.00 ERA.
Fedde is 0-2 career-wise against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings during any of his four starts this season so a bad Washington bullpen also figures to be involved.
Washington defeated the Giants in their last game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Nationals had dropped nine of their last 10 games.
|05-02-22||Mariners v. Astros -119||Top||0-3||Win||100||19 h 6 m||Show|
After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston.
I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston.
I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year.
Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros.
|04-30-22||Cubs v. Brewers -160||Top||1-9||Win||100||17 h 55 m||Show|
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader.
Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games.
The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation.
|04-29-22||Reds v. Rockies -112||Top||4-10||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds.
Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year.
The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record.
The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83.
Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds.
|04-14-22||Cubs v. Rockies -118||Top||5-2||Loss||-118||19 h 57 m||Show|
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games.
|04-11-22||Padres v. Giants -139||Top||4-2||Loss||-139||21 h 42 m||Show|
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury.
|04-10-22||Marlins v. Giants -120||Top||2-3||Win||100||15 h 22 m||Show|
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA.
|04-07-22||Mets v. Nationals +120||Top||5-1||Loss||-100||18 h 14 m||Show|
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though.
Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year.
I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin.
So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits.
The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year.
The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz.
|11-02-21||Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5||Top||7-0||Loss||-114||23 h 27 m||Show|
We've reached the sixth game of the World Series. Fatigue is setting in and the starting pitchers don't look so imposing anymore. I can see each side scoring at least four runs. So I'm going Over the total. Max Fried gets the start for Atlanta. He was solid during the regular season. But this strictly is a ''what have you done lately for me,'' case. The answer is nothing in Fried's case. He's given up 11 earned runs in a combined 9 2/3 innings during his last two starts against the Dodgers and Astros this past Wednesday in Game 2. The Astros beat Fried, 7-2, in that Game 2 matchup getting to him for six runs on seven hits in five innings.
The Astros could only manage a combined two runs in Games 3 and 4. But they burst out in Game 5 this past Sunday winning, 9-5.
Dusty Baker's perceived strength as a manager is the players like him. He's known as a player's manager. Baker, though, was a hitting coach before he began his managerial career. Baker helped jumpstart Houston's attack in Game 5 by adjusting the batting order, moving up Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel while dropping a slumping Alex Bregman.
This worked. The Astros always were getting men on base. Now they were driving them home.
Atlanta should be able to score on Houston starter Luis Garcia, who has a 7.62 ERA in four postseason appearances. He's pitching on just three days' rest after going 3 2/3 innings this past Friday throwing 72 pitches in that game.
The Astros' bullpen has had to work 14 2/3 innings during the last three games. So there should be some vulnerability there.
|10-31-21||Astros -111 v. Braves||Top||9-5||Win||100||17 h 18 m||Show|
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
|10-27-21||Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5||Top||2-7||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
I can easily see each team scoring at least four runs in this Game 2 World Series matchup.The Braves beat the Astros, 6-2, for a total of eight runs in yesterday's Game 1. But the teams combined for 20 hits while leaving 18 men on base. Atlanta hit the third-most homers in the majors. The Braves are a top-eight offense. They are averaging 5.1 runs during their last six games against good pitching. Houston has the best offense in baseball. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. The starters are Max Fried, who has a 3.78 ERA in three playoff starts this season, against Jose Urquidy, who looked bad in his only postseason start giving up six runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Oct. 18.
|10-26-21||Braves v. Astros UNDER 8.5||Top||6-2||Win||100||23 h 17 m||Show|
There may be some high-scoring games in this World Series. Just not in this Game 1. The pitching matchup is lefty Framber Valdez versus Charlie Morton. Valdez is tough on opponents unfamiliar with him because of his effective curveball and sinker. He mixes them well. Valdez was dominant in his last start holding the Red Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings last Wednesday. The Braves batted .239 against lefty pitching during the regular season. That ranked them 24th. They were 23rd in on base percentage versus southpaws. The Astros have been swinging hot bats. But they haven't played since Friday, a span of four days. That's the longest the Astros have been idle since the All-Star break back in mid-July. Morton is a big-play pitcher. He's had World Series experience with the Astros and Rays during the last five years. He is 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 playoff appearances, including 15 starts. Morton is backed by a rested Braves' bullpen that was great against a potent Dodgers lineup. Will Smith, A.J. Minter and Jesse Chavez combined to shut out the Dodgers in their 12 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. Tyler Matzek was dominant in Game 6. Luke Jackson was outstanding during the regular season.
|10-22-21||Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5||Top||0-5||Loss||-115||19 h 49 m||Show|
This series isn't about pitching. It's all about offense.Boston's bats have gone quiet the last two games. But I expect the Red Sox to explode against Luis Garcia, who has given up 13 earned runs in three playoff appearances spanning 8 2/3 innings. Garcia had to leave his last start six days ago against the Red Sox because of a sore knee. He surrendered five runs in one inning of work. The Red Sox had the third-highest batting average during the season. Only four teams scored more runs than Boston. The Red Sox have scored 6 or more runs in eight of their last 12 games. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston is averaging seven runs in its last dozen games. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. The Astros have seen him twice in the series getting to him for seven runs in six innings. Neither bullpen instills any fear. Pitching usually trumps hitting. Not in this series, nor in this game, though.
|10-20-21||Astros +112 v. Red Sox||Top||9-1||Win||112||8 h 51 m||Show|
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
|10-14-21||Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7||Top||2-1||Win||100||22 h 7 m||Show|
Baseball got what it wanted - a Game 5 between the Dodgers and Giants in their best-of-five playoff series. The oddsmaker knows this is likely to be a pitching duel between Julio Urias and Logan Webb, both of whom are backed by rested bullpens with the teams having been idle on Wednesday. The marketplace is buying this as the total has dropped to 6 1/2 at a number of shops. I'm buying it, too, locking into Under 7. Urias faced the Giants in Game 2 holding them to one run on three hits in five innings. Urias has won his last 12 decisions. He has a 2.61 career ERA against San Francisco. Webb has been the Giants' best pitcher. He threw 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers in Game 1. Webb has held the current LA lineup to a .208 batting average. Each team is missing an important hitter with Max Muncy out for the Dodgers and Brandon Belt sidelined for the Giants. The clincher for me, though, is who the home plate umpire is scheduled to be: Doug Eddings. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time during the past two years Eddings has been behind the plate comprising 44 games. If you go by the last five years, Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire.
|10-06-21||Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers||Top||1-3||Loss||-105||20 h 57 m||Show|
Adam Wainwright goes against Max Scherzer in this winner-take-all playoff game. The oddsmaker is expecting a low-scoring game given this total. That sure makes sense given the pitching matchup and rested bullpens. I can easily envision a 4-3 type of game. The Dodgers are once again overpriced here. They are so overpriced that I can afford some insurance by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the underdog Cardinals and not have to pay a premium price to do it. I have the utmost respect for Scherezer, who has been great since joining the Dodgers going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA. This isn't a fade on him, but a value play on the Cardinals, who have been fantastic down the stretch going 35-16 during their last 51 games. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Cardinals would be a mind-blowing 21-1 in their last 22 games! St. Louis is 11-1 the past 12 times as an underdog. They are 17-4 in their last 21 games facing a righty starter, including winning the past eight times. The 40-year-old Wainwright showed he's far from washed up. He is 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA . He was tremendous down the stretch going 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA during his last eight starts. Career-wise against the Dodgers, Wainwright is 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, including 14 starts.
|10-05-21||Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5||Top||2-6||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
Starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi have proven themselves in the postseason. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 13 playoff starts. Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in six career postseason appearances that includes two starts. Neither manager is going to hold back with his top bullpen pitchers either as the winner won't play again until Thursday. Weather-wise favors the Under with wind blowing in at seven miles per hour and possible light rain in the forecast. These teams have an Under bias, too, in their rivalry. The Under is 12-3-1 the past 16 meetings. The Under also has cashed six of the last seven times the teams have met at Fenway Park.
|09-30-21||Padres v. Dodgers -1.5||Top||3-8||Win||100||13 h 33 m||Show|
The Dodgers have lived up to their super team status. They are 38-13 since August. The Padres had high hopes of challenging the Dodgers. That didn't materialize. Now the Padres are a dead team, eliminated from playoff contention and 1-10 in their last 11 games. They have lost eight in a row to the Dodgers. I see the Dodgers rolling over San Diego again in a pitching matchup of Vince Velasquez versus Tony Gonsolin. The Padres have discovered the hard way what the Phillies found to be true - Velasquez is not a big league starter. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA. He's 0-2 with the Padres with a 9.00 ERA. He's made eight career appearances against the Dodgers and is 1-3 with a 7.88 ERA. Gonsolin is one of many outstanding young pitchers the Dodgers have. He's 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts. At home, Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA. He's made six starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Career-wise versus San Diego, Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings.
|09-29-21||A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5||Top||2-4||Loss||-108||20 h 40 m||Show|
Granted, Frankie Montas and Logan Gilbert have pitched well this month. But this total is set too low. The A's rank 12th in runs. They are averaging 5.2 runs this month. The Over is 7-1-1 the last nine times the A's have gone against a righty starter on the road. Gilbert has a 4.83 ERA on the season. He's a back-of-the-rotation type starter. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in 20 of its last 24 games. Montas has pitched 12 innings against Seattle this year and given up seven earned runs.
|09-28-21||Nationals v. Rockies -133||Top||1-3||Win||100||19 h 51 m||Show|
The Rockies have been outstanding in one role this season - that as a home favorite where they are 24-7. I like the Rockies as home chalk in a pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin versus Kyle Freeland. Corbin has been among the most disappointing pitchers this season with a 9-15 record and 5.92 ERA. Corbin's night ERA is even worse at 6.28. The Rockies average 5.6 runs at home. Freeland is experienced pitching at Coors Field. He's been solid in his last three overall starts with a 3.50 ERA.
|09-22-21||Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11||Top||5-10||Loss||-115||10 h 8 m||Show|
Playing on marketplace perception, the oddsmaker has a tendency to set a higher total than what should be at Coors Field. The Under has cashed in 22 of the Rockies' last 32 home games. I'm expecting another Under in today's game at Coors Field between the Dodgers and Rockies, who have gone below the total the past six times they've met. The pitching matchup is Walker Buehler versus German Marquez. I don't doubt Buehler will come in with a strong performance being a Cy Young Award candidate with a 14-4 record and 2.39 ERA. He has a 2.77 ERA in two starts at Coors Field this season. Buehler has yielded two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts. I see Marquez holding up his end, too. He's 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season. He also has a 2.52 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Dodgers.
|09-21-21||Royals v. Indians -138||Top||1-4||Win||100||18 h 31 m||Show|
Given the pitching matchup, the Indians are priced way too low. Cal Quantrill remains below the radar. He's 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Quantrill has been at his best at home, too, where he's 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Quantrill didn't allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings during his last start, which came against the Twins. The Royals are pitching Daniel Lynch, who is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA. Lynch last started against the A's this past Thursday. He was pulled after two-plus innings because of tightness in his left calf. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits.