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Stephen Nover MLB Top Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
05-02-22	Mariners v. Astros -119	Top	0-3	Win	100	19 h 6 m	Show
After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston. I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston. I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year. Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros.
04-30-22	Cubs v. Brewers -160	Top	1-9	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader. Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games. The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation.
04-29-22	Reds v. Rockies -112	Top	4-10	Win	100	10 h 19 m	Show
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds. Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year. The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record. The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83. Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds.
04-14-22	Cubs v. Rockies -118	Top	5-2	Loss	-118	19 h 57 m	Show
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games.
04-11-22	Padres v. Giants -139	Top	4-2	Loss	-139	21 h 42 m	Show
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury.
04-10-22	Marlins v. Giants -120	Top	2-3	Win	100	15 h 22 m	Show
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA.
04-07-22	Mets v. Nationals +120	Top	5-1	Loss	-100	18 h 14 m	Show
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though. Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin. So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits. The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year. The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz.
11-02-21	Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	7-0	Loss	-114	23 h 27 m	Show
We've reached the sixth game of the World Series. Fatigue is setting in and the starting pitchers don't look so imposing anymore. I can see each side scoring at least four runs. So I'm going Over the total. Max Fried gets the start for Atlanta. He was solid during the regular season. But this strictly is a ''what have you done lately for me,'' case. The answer is nothing in Fried's case. He's given up 11 earned runs in a combined 9 2/3 innings during his last two starts against the Dodgers and Astros this past Wednesday in Game 2. The Astros beat Fried, 7-2, in that Game 2 matchup getting to him for six runs on seven hits in five innings. The Astros could only manage a combined two runs in Games 3 and 4. But they burst out in Game 5 this past Sunday winning, 9-5. Dusty Baker's perceived strength as a manager is the players like him. He's known as a player's manager. Baker, though, was a hitting coach before he began his managerial career. Baker helped jumpstart Houston's attack in Game 5 by adjusting the batting order, moving up Carlos Correa and Yuli Gurriel while dropping a slumping Alex Bregman. This worked. The Astros always were getting men on base. Now they were driving them home. Atlanta should be able to score on Houston starter Luis Garcia, who has a 7.62 ERA in four postseason appearances. He's pitching on just three days' rest after going 3 2/3 innings this past Friday throwing 72 pitches in that game. The Astros' bullpen has had to work 14 2/3 innings during the last three games. So there should be some vulnerability there.
10-31-21	Astros -111 v. Braves	Top	9-5	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
Maybe the Braves will beat the Astros and win the World Series. But I don't see it happening here in this Game 5. The Astros have the best offense in baseball having led the majors in runs scored, batting average and on base percentage. Yet Houston has scored only two runs during the past two games, unable to break through against Atlanta's bullpen. The Astros are ready to bust loose. They left 11 men on base in Saturday's 3-2 loss, including eight in scoring position. This is the fifth game in six days and third straight. The Braves' bullpen has fatigue concerns and are forced to use their relief pitchers a lot in this game. While the Astros have Framber Valdez starting, the Braves likely are going to need Tucker Davidson and Drew Smyly to eat the bulk of the innings in this Game 5. That favors the Astros more than this opening number indicates.
10-27-21	Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	2-7	Win	100	10 h 50 m	Show
I can easily see each team scoring at least four runs in this Game 2 World Series matchup. The Braves beat the Astros, 6-2, for a total of eight runs in yesterday's Game 1. But the teams combined for 20 hits while leaving 18 men on base. Atlanta hit the third-most homers in the majors. The Braves are a top-eight offense. They are averaging 5.1 runs during their last six games against good pitching. Houston has the best offense in baseball. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. The starters are Max Fried, who has a 3.78 ERA in three playoff starts this season, against Jose Urquidy, who looked bad in his only postseason start giving up six runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Oct. 18.
10-26-21	Braves v. Astros UNDER 8.5	Top	6-2	Win	100	23 h 17 m	Show
There may be some high-scoring games in this World Series. Just not in this Game 1. The pitching matchup is lefty Framber Valdez versus Charlie Morton. Valdez is tough on opponents unfamiliar with him because of his effective curveball and sinker. He mixes them well. Valdez was dominant in his last start holding the Red Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings last Wednesday. The Braves batted .239 against lefty pitching during the regular season. That ranked them 24th. They were 23rd in on base percentage versus southpaws. The Astros have been swinging hot bats. But they haven't played since Friday, a span of four days. That's the longest the Astros have been idle since the All-Star break back in mid-July. Morton is a big-play pitcher. He's had World Series experience with the Astros and Rays during the last five years. He is 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 playoff appearances, including 15 starts. Morton is backed by a rested Braves' bullpen that was great against a potent Dodgers lineup. Will Smith, A.J. Minter and Jesse Chavez combined to shut out the Dodgers in their 12 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. Tyler Matzek was dominant in Game 6. Luke Jackson was outstanding during the regular season.
10-22-21	Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5	Top	0-5	Loss	-115	19 h 49 m	Show
This series isn't about pitching. It's all about offense. Boston's bats have gone quiet the last two games. But I expect the Red Sox to explode against Luis Garcia, who has given up 13 earned runs in three playoff appearances spanning 8 2/3 innings. Garcia had to leave his last start six days ago against the Red Sox because of a sore knee. He surrendered five runs in one inning of work. The Red Sox had the third-highest batting average during the season. Only four teams scored more runs than Boston. The Red Sox have scored 6 or more runs in eight of their last 12 games. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston is averaging seven runs in its last dozen games. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. The Astros have seen him twice in the series getting to him for seven runs in six innings. Neither bullpen instills any fear. Pitching usually trumps hitting. Not in this series, nor in this game, though.
10-20-21	Astros +112 v. Red Sox	Top	9-1	Win	112	8 h 51 m	Show
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now.
10-14-21	Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7	Top	2-1	Win	100	22 h 7 m	Show
Baseball got what it wanted - a Game 5 between the Dodgers and Giants in their best-of-five playoff series. The oddsmaker knows this is likely to be a pitching duel between Julio Urias and Logan Webb, both of whom are backed by rested bullpens with the teams having been idle on Wednesday. The marketplace is buying this as the total has dropped to 6 1/2 at a number of shops. I'm buying it, too, locking into Under 7. Urias faced the Giants in Game 2 holding them to one run on three hits in five innings. Urias has won his last 12 decisions. He has a 2.61 career ERA against San Francisco. Webb has been the Giants' best pitcher. He threw 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers in Game 1. Webb has held the current LA lineup to a .208 batting average. Each team is missing an important hitter with Max Muncy out for the Dodgers and Brandon Belt sidelined for the Giants. The clincher for me, though, is who the home plate umpire is scheduled to be: Doug Eddings. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time during the past two years Eddings has been behind the plate comprising 44 games. If you go by the last five years, Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire.
10-06-21	Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers	Top	1-3	Loss	-105	20 h 57 m	Show
Adam Wainwright goes against Max Scherzer in this winner-take-all playoff game. The oddsmaker is expecting a low-scoring game given this total. That sure makes sense given the pitching matchup and rested bullpens. I can easily envision a 4-3 type of game. The Dodgers are once again overpriced here. They are so overpriced that I can afford some insurance by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the underdog Cardinals and not have to pay a premium price to do it. I have the utmost respect for Scherezer, who has been great since joining the Dodgers going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA. This isn't a fade on him, but a value play on the Cardinals, who have been fantastic down the stretch going 35-16 during their last 51 games. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Cardinals would be a mind-blowing 21-1 in their last 22 games! St. Louis is 11-1 the past 12 times as an underdog. They are 17-4 in their last 21 games facing a righty starter, including winning the past eight times. The 40-year-old Wainwright showed he's far from washed up. He is 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA . He was tremendous down the stretch going 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA during his last eight starts. Career-wise against the Dodgers, Wainwright is 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, including 14 starts.
10-05-21	Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5	Top	2-6	Win	100	24 h 37 m	Show
Starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi have proven themselves in the postseason. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 13 playoff starts. Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in six career postseason appearances that includes two starts. Neither manager is going to hold back with his top bullpen pitchers either as the winner won't play again until Thursday. Weather-wise favors the Under with wind blowing in at seven miles per hour and possible light rain in the forecast. These teams have an Under bias, too, in their rivalry. The Under is 12-3-1 the past 16 meetings. The Under also has cashed six of the last seven times the teams have met at Fenway Park.
09-30-21	Padres v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	3-8	Win	100	13 h 33 m	Show
The Dodgers have lived up to their super team status. They are 38-13 since August. The Padres had high hopes of challenging the Dodgers. That didn't materialize. Now the Padres are a dead team, eliminated from playoff contention and 1-10 in their last 11 games. They have lost eight in a row to the Dodgers. I see the Dodgers rolling over San Diego again in a pitching matchup of Vince Velasquez versus Tony Gonsolin. The Padres have discovered the hard way what the Phillies found to be true - Velasquez is not a big league starter. Velasquez is 3-8 with a 6.22 ERA. He's 0-2 with the Padres with a 9.00 ERA. He's made eight career appearances against the Dodgers and is 1-3 with a 7.88 ERA. Gonsolin is one of many outstanding young pitchers the Dodgers have. He's 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts. At home, Gonsolin is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA. He's made six starts at Dodger Stadium this season. Career-wise versus San Diego, Gonsolin is 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in 13 2/3 innings.
09-29-21	A's v. Mariners OVER 7.5	Top	2-4	Loss	-108	20 h 40 m	Show
Granted, Frankie Montas and Logan Gilbert have pitched well this month. But this total is set too low. The A's rank 12th in runs. They are averaging 5.2 runs this month. The Over is 7-1-1 the last nine times the A's have gone against a righty starter on the road. Gilbert has a 4.83 ERA on the season. He's a back-of-the-rotation type starter. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in 20 of its last 24 games. Montas has pitched 12 innings against Seattle this year and given up seven earned runs.
09-28-21	Nationals v. Rockies -133	Top	1-3	Win	100	19 h 51 m	Show
The Rockies have been outstanding in one role this season - that as a home favorite where they are 24-7. I like the Rockies as home chalk in a pitching matchup of Patrick Corbin versus Kyle Freeland. Corbin has been among the most disappointing pitchers this season with a 9-15 record and 5.92 ERA. Corbin's night ERA is even worse at 6.28. The Rockies average 5.6 runs at home. Freeland is experienced pitching at Coors Field. He's been solid in his last three overall starts with a 3.50 ERA.
09-22-21	Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 11	Top	5-10	Loss	-115	10 h 8 m	Show
Playing on marketplace perception, the oddsmaker has a tendency to set a higher total than what should be at Coors Field. The Under has cashed in 22 of the Rockies' last 32 home games. I'm expecting another Under in today's game at Coors Field between the Dodgers and Rockies, who have gone below the total the past six times they've met. The pitching matchup is Walker Buehler versus German Marquez. I don't doubt Buehler will come in with a strong performance being a Cy Young Award candidate with a 14-4 record and 2.39 ERA. He has a 2.77 ERA in two starts at Coors Field this season. Buehler has yielded two earned runs or fewer in 14 of his last 16 starts. I see Marquez holding up his end, too. He's 8-2 with a 3.16 ERA at home this season. He also has a 2.52 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Dodgers.
09-21-21	Royals v. Indians -138	Top	1-4	Win	100	18 h 31 m	Show
Given the pitching matchup, the Indians are priced way too low. Cal Quantrill remains below the radar. He's 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. Quantrill has been at his best at home, too, where he's 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA. Quantrill didn't allow an earned run in 6 2/3 innings during his last start, which came against the Twins. The Royals are pitching Daniel Lynch, who is 4-5 with a 5.34 ERA. Lynch last started against the A's this past Thursday. He was pulled after two-plus innings because of tightness in his left calf. He had allowed three runs (one earned) on two hits.
09-17-21	Padres v. Cardinals -130	Top	2-8	Win	100	17 h 12 m	Show
The Padres' season could be on the line here. So who do the Padres call upon? Vince Velasquez. Ouch! That's the best the Padres could do was go to the junkyard to pick up Velasquez and his 5.95 ERA following injuries to Blake Snell and Chris Paddack. Velasquez faces a hot Cardinals team that has won seven of eight, including the last five. Miles Mikolas, who was outstanding last season, gets the start for St. Louis. He's rounding into shape after being out several months due to a forearm injury. The Cardinals have a rested bullpen after being idle on Thursday. San Diego has lost 11 of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog.
09-15-21	Indians -104 v. Twins	Top	12-3	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
This one is simple. The Indians have the much better starter and superior bullpen. The low price gets me involved. Cal Quantrill is flying below the radar. He's 5-3 with a 3.04 ERA. He just faced the Twins six days ago and held them to one earned run on four hits, two walks with five strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings. Quantrill was the winner in that 4-1 victory. Griffin Jax gets the call for Minnesota. He's 3-3 with a 6.72 ERA. The Twins have a bottom-10 bullpen. The Indians have won 13 of the last 17 times they've been favored.
09-14-21	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 8.5	Top	4-8	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
Neither of these starting pitchers, Luke Weaver and Tony Gonsolin, moves the needle for me. Injuries have held back Weaver. He's been mediocre with a losing record and 4.24 ERA. Weaver has been at his worst on the road with an 8.20 ERA. LA is averaging six runs during its last three games. Gonsolin doesn't have good control and doesn't go deep into games. The Dodgers will be lucky to get five innings out of him before turning things over to their vulnerable middle relief. Arizona has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last 10 games. Mark Wegner is slated to be the home plate umpire, which is a plus for the Over. The Over has cashed in 16 of 24 games he's been behind the plate during the last two years for 67 percent. Tuesday Free Play Rays plus $1.21 at Blue Jays Toronto is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is putting up MVP numbers leading the majors in homers with 45. So the oddsmaker is justified in making the Blue Jays a home favorite. This has perked my interest in the Rays. It's rare to get them in this plus price range. Tampa Bay has won 42 of its last 61 games. The Rays own the best road mark in the American League at 44-29. Some of this line may be influenced by the Blue Jays' dominant 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday. Alek Manoah was magnificent, throwing a one-hitter in eight shutout innings. Manoah has the capability to do that against any team. I see the Rays faring better facing today's starter, Joe Berrios, who is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in four lifetime starts versus Tampa Bay. Drew Rasmussen is slated to start for Tampa Bay. He's 2-1 with a 3.25 ERA. We know how much Kevin Cash loves his bullpen and his relief pitching depth has increased with the return of Nick Anderson, who has been out with an elbow injury. Anderson was 5-1 with a 1.43 ERA during the previous two years.
09-10-21	Angels +1.5 v. Astros	Top	5-10	Loss	-116	20 h 46 m	Show
Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 43 homers and topps the American League with a .608 slugging percentage. He's also not bad when it comes to pitching. Ohtani is 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA. He's won his last eight decisions posting a 3.09 ERA with 85 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings during this span. The Angels are 10-3 in Ohtani's last 13 starts. So I feel very strong in backing Ohtani especially on the road taking 1 1/2 runs with an extra at bat being the visiting team. Ohtani faced the Astros once this year - giving up one run on four hits with one walk and 10 strikeouts in seven innings back on May 11. Houston starter Framber Valdez has been solid with a 9-5 record and 3.08 ERA. The Astros' bullpen, though, hasn't been looking good lately. Valdez also has a mediocre 4.27 ERA in nine career appearances versus the Angels, including five starts. The Angels were idle Thursday. They are 5-0 the past five times following a day off.
09-08-21	Twins v. Indians -125	Top	3-0	Loss	-125	15 h 7 m	Show
The Twins have been one of the biggest money-burning teams in the league. They are 29-41 on the road. Aside from some power, the Twins are just average in runs and batting average. Their pitching is well below average. The Twins draw a hot Triston McKenzie, one of the Indians' top pitching prospects. McKenzie has turned his season around finding his confidence. He's given up only two runs and five hits during his last three starts spanning 21 innings. Minnesota is starting rookie Joe Ryan, who has a 5.40 ERA. This will be just his second career start. The Indians have homered at least once in 19 of their last 20 games. They also have stolen 29 straight bases.
09-07-21	Phillies v. Brewers -102	Top	0-10	Win	100	22 h 50 m	Show
It's like Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer have switched identities. The unheralded Lauer has been pitching great for the Brewers giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. He's permitted just eight walks in his last seven starts. He held the Giants to one run on three hits in seven innings during his last start this past Thursday. Nola no longer is the ace of the Phillies. He's been extremely mediocre this season with a 7-7 record and 4.54 ERA. Nola has yielded 14 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 22 1/3 innings. The Phillies are six games below .500 when playing on the road. Nola's road ERA is 5.57. Milwaukee is 38-31 at home. The Brewers shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed, 12-0, by the Phillies on Labor Day.
09-06-21	Giants v. Rockies +157	Top	10-5	Loss	-100	14 h 46 m	Show
The Rockies are extremely dangerous when playing at Coors Field. This is evidenced by their 45-24 home record. They lead the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Giants are off a huge Sunday night home win against the Dodgers that concluded their three-game series. San Francisco accomplished this by beating the likely NL Cy Young Award winner, Walker Buehler. It was the first time in 12 career games the Giants defeated Buehler. It was just the Giants' third win in their last eight games. Kyle Freeland gets the start for Colorado, which is 7-3 the past 10 times it has been an underdog. Freeland knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 3.21 ERA in his last three starts. Giants starter Kevin Gausman is falling back to earth after a big season. He's given up nine earned runs in his past four starts spanning 19 2/3 innings.
09-04-21	Twins v. Rays OVER 8.5	Top	4-11	Win	100	14 h 53 m	Show
Considering the pitchers and offensive strengths of these two teams, I would have put this total at double-digits. It's at least one run short in my view. Only five teams have hit more homers than the Twins. No team is averaging more runs per game than the Rays. Tampa Bay has scored 5 or more runs in 13 of its last 17 games. The Twins go against Chris Archer, who has thrown just six innings since April 10 as he works his way back into shape after being out four months with right forearm tightness. Archer hasn't been effective for the past six years. So I'm not expecting much. Nor am I expecting anything from Twins starter, 35-year-old Andrew Alberts. He has made just two starts since 2017.
09-03-21	Braves v. Rockies +129	Top	3-4	Win	129	19 h 40 m	Show
It's a mistake to go against the Rockies at home especially with a young unproven pitcher. Colorado leads the majors in homers, batting average and slugging percentage when playing at home. The Rockies are 43-23 - 20 games above .500 - when playing at Coors Field. Braves righty Huascar Ynoa has thrown fewer than 87 big league innings. He has a 3.71 road ERA compared to a 2.29 home ERA. Colorado is 21-6 in its last 27 home games versus a righty starter. Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela is that rare pitcher who pitches better at Coors Field. He has a 3.89 home ERA and a 4.56 road ERA. Senzatela is pitching the best stretch of his career with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the mighty Dodgers on two hits and a walk in seven innings during a 5-0 victory this past Sunday. Star second baseman Ozzie Albies is questionable for the Braves with a knee injury that caused him to miss Thursday's game.
09-01-21	Astros -125 v. Mariners	Top	0-1	Loss	-125	5 h 57 m	Show
I like the superior Astros to bounce back today after losing, 4-0, to Seattle Tuesday night. The Astros rank in the top two in runs and batting average. The Mariners are 30th in batting average and 22nd in runs. Houston starter Jake Odorizzi is pitching better, holding three of his last four opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He just beat the Mariners, 15-1, on Aug. 21 giving up one run in 5 2/3 innings. Rookie Logan Gilbert is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA for Seattle. He's been rocked for a 13.50 ERA during his last three starts.
08-30-21	Twins v. Tigers +112	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	15 h 60 m	Show
The game may be meaningless. But the price isn't. I don't understand the Twins opening a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Bailey Ober versus Casey Mize. Before getting to that, though, consider the situation and Minnesota's road record. The Twins are 25-39 away from home. Detroit has a winning home record and is a respectable 14-14 in its last 28 games. Minnesota is the fourth-biggest money loser this season for bettors. The Twins have dropped five of their last six road contests and are 0-4 during their past four games at Comerica Park. Now the situation. Minnesota just hosted the Brewers for three games this past weekend. The Twins have to shoot off to Detroit for this lone game and then return home to host the Cubs on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's an unusual occurrence caused by a July 16 rainout. This is the makeup game from that date. So I question how caring and focused the Twins will be. Ober and Mize are young pitchers. Mize has the higher ceiling being one of the top prospects in baseball. He's 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA. Ober's ERA in day games is 4.43. I like Mize much better. So I don't get why Minnesota opened the favorite here?
08-26-21	Nationals v. Marlins OVER 7.5	Top	5-7	Win	100	20 h 48 m	Show
I see this total as being at least one run too low. The Nationals average 4.5 runs on the road. They are averaging 5.7 runs during their last eight games. The Marlins average more than four runs per game at home. The pitching matchup is lefty Patrick Corbin versus righty Elieser Hernandez. Corbin has mostly been terrible this year. He's 7-12 with a 5.82 ERA. He's given up four or more earned runs in four of his past seven starts. Hernandez, who has a 4.15 ERA, will be making just his fifth appearance of the season. He last started six days ago against the Reds and was tagged for five runs, four of which were earned, in 4 2/3 innings. Hernandez gave up two homers during that game. The Nationals have the second-highest batting average against righthanders in the National League. Note, too, that Joe West is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has won 59 percent of the time West has been behind the plate the past two years spanning 34 games.
08-25-21	Dodgers -136 v. Padres	Top	5-3	Win	100	13 h 18 m	Show
Blake Snell has a solid history against the Dodgers. But he's trumped by Walker Buehler, who I consider the best pitcher in the National League with Jacob deGrom injured. Buehler hasn't yielded more than two runs during any of his last eight starts. Lifetime against the Padres, he's 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA. The Padres aren't playing well, losers of 10 of their past 12 games. The Dodgers, by contrast, have won 10 of their last 11 games.
08-24-21	Angels -131 v. Orioles	Top	14-8	Win	100	18 h 44 m	Show
The Orioles are bad. How bad? Historically bad. Baltimore has lost by an average of 5.6 runs during its last 18 games - all losses. No team has dropped that many games in a row in 16 years. Not surprisingly, Baltimore is the worst team in the majors at 38-85. No way does Dylan Bundy want to lose to his former team. Bundy has been disappointing this season. Lately, though, he's been pitching better. He has a 3.00 ERA in his past three starts. The Angels' bullpen has shown improvement, too, posting a 3.51 ERA this month. Spenser Watkins goes for Baltimore. He's fit right in with the other horrible Orioles starters. This month Watkins is 0-4 with an 8.24 ERA. He's backed by the worst bullpen in the American League. Perhaps the Orioles finally end their long losing streak. But as long as the price is reasonable, which it is here, I'll go against Baltimore. Tuesday Free Play Twins plus $2.03 at Red Sox This is a monster price the Red Sox are being asked to lay, especially considering they aren't playing well and have unfavorable circumstances. Boston is 2-4 in its last six games. The Red Sox were embarrassed, 10-1, by the Rangers this past Saturday committing a season-high five errors. Boston's Sunday game was postponed and then the Red Sox had to go 11 innings on Monday to defeat the Rangers, who are 8-26 since the All-Star break. That's the fewest wins of any team during this time span. The Twins are in rebuild, but are better than the Rangers and in a good spot having been idle the past two days. They get back Miguel Sano from paternity leave. He's second on the team in homers and RBI's. The Twins have hit 15 more home runs than the Red Sox. The pitching matchup is Griffin Jax versus Tanner Houck, who has better season numbers than Jax. However, the Red Sox are just 3-3 in Houck's last six starts. Jax has been pitching better going 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts. So at this huge 'dog price, I'll throw a peanut on the Twins.
08-17-21	Mets v. Giants UNDER 8	Top	2-3	Win	100	15 h 50 m	Show
Marcus Stroman is a solid pitcher with a history of pitching well down the stretch. Stroman has held up his end of the bargain for the Mets with a 2.78 ERA. Meanwhile, Giants starter Logan Webb has become a huge below-the-radar star especially when pitching at home where he's compiled a 1.58 ERA. Webb is in strong form, too, with a 1.50 ERA in his last three starts. Webb faces a Mets lineup that is far below average in many of the key offensive categories, including 29th in scoring. The forecast is for wind blowing out to left at around 13 mph, but this is off-set by Oracle Park being a pitcher's park and Jeremie Rehak slated to be the home plate umpire. The Under is 48-33 (59 percent) during Rehak's four-year big league career.
08-16-21	Mets v. Giants -1.5	Top	5-7	Win	110	19 h 24 m	Show
The Mets just got swept by the Dodgers at home and now they have to fly cross-country after having played in the ESPN Sunday night game. Major League Baseball certainly didn't do the Mets a favor here with this scheduling spot. It's the first time the Mets have been on the West Coast - a three hour time difference for them - since June 6. Throw in a late night/early morning long flight and I don't see how the Mets can be sharp going against a Giants team that is a dominant 40-18 at home. The Mets are 23-35 on the road. They are hurting in the middle infield with Javier Baez and Franscico Lindor both out. New York also is facing Kevin Gausman, who has been the Giants' best pitcher with an 11-5 record and 2.29 ERA. Gausman is back in strong form, too, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. The Mets average the second-fewest runs per game in the majors. Rich Hill is expected to get the start for the Mets, but New York is a fade no matter who starts. Hill has a 4.91 ERA in his last three starts. The Giants are positioned well for this game. They rested catcher Buster Posey Sunday while also limiting the playing time of Kris Bryant and Evan Longoria. This is a real kill spot for the Giants so I'm going to lay the 1 1/2 runs on the run line and turn a huge lay price into a plus price.
08-15-21	Cardinals v. Royals +112	Top	7-2	Loss	-100	9 h 36 m	Show
A home 'dog with the better pitcher going. Sign me up for the Royals here. Sooner or later, major league teams are going to figure out that time has run out on J.A. Happ. He's just not effective as his 6.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP indicates. The Cardinals are the ninth team the lefty has been on since breaking into the big leagues in 2007. The Royals play much better at home - 17 games better to be exact. Kansas City also has a winning record versus lefties. Royals starter, lefty Kris Bubic, is 2-0 with a 3.06 ERA at home. The Cardinals are three games below .500 when playing on the road. The Cardinals rank 21st in batting average versus southpaws while the Royals have the eighth highest batting average against lefties. Wrong team favored here.
08-13-21	Blue Jays v. Mariners +1.5	Top	2-3	Win	100	14 h 9 m	Show
Seattle doesn't get much respect. That's obvious seeing this high of a road price on the Blue Jays. But the Marines are 35-24 at home this season. They rarely are out of games. If given plus 1 1/2 runs, Seattle would be 12-1 (92 percent) in its last 13 games. Seattle starter Chris Flexen is 6-4 at home with a 2.67 ERA compared to a 5.44 road ERA. He's been tough in Seattle all season. The Blue Jays aren't as fierce in pitcher's parks such as Seattle's T-Mobile Park. Toronto's offensive numbers are down across the board when comparing its home/road hitting statistics, including a drop of nearly 20 points in batting average. The Blue Jays have scored four runs or fewer in five of their past seven games. A major reason for Toronto being such a prohibitive favorite is starter Robbie Ray. He's 9-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Ray has always been a high strikeout pitcher, but he's proven much more consistent this season with his command and control. He does have a 3.91 lifetime ERA against the Mariners in four career starts. But this isn't a fade on Ray. It's a play on the feisty Mariners.
08-11-21	Tigers -114 v. Orioles	Top	5-2	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
The Tigers are better than perceived winning 25 of their last 43 games. The Orioles are as bad as perceived with a 38-73 record. Baltimore has lost five in a row, giving up at least 9 runs in each of these losses. I'm going to ride the superior Tigers at this low of a lay price in a pitching matchup of leftyTarik Skubal versus Matt Harvey. Skubal is coming off five scoreless innings against the Red Sox in an 8-1 victory six days ago. Baltimore is 8-18 in its last 26 games versus a lefty starter. Harvey had pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings until his last outing when he gave up two runs in four innings against the Yankees. Despite that hot streak, Harvey still has a 6.13 ERA. I consider that hot streak a fluke judging by various pitching metrics and how poorly he has pitched most of the season and the past four years before that.
08-10-21	Tigers +100 v. Orioles	Top	9-4	Win	100	16 h 14 m	Show
I had the Tigers as very strong favorites in this game with a pitching matchup of Casey Mize versus Keegan Akin. So I'm pleasantly surprised to see this line. Mize is one the top pitching prospects in baseball. The right-hander faced the Orioles on July 29 and held them to one unearned run on four hits in seven innings. The Orioles are second-to-last in the American League in on-base percentage versus righties and 13th in slugging percentage against righthanders. The Tigers are 24-18 in their last 42 games. The Orioles own the second-worst record in baseball at 38-72. Baltimore has lost 75 percent of its last 51 games when facing a righty starter. Lefty Keegan Akin goes for Baltimóre backed by one of the worst bullpens in the majors. Akin gave up six runs on eight hits in only three innings during his previous start, which came on July 16 against the Royals. Akin is 0-5 on the season with a 7.66 ERA.
08-09-21	Yankees v. Royals UNDER 10	Top	8-6	Loss	-110	12 h 55 m	Show
Jameson Taillon has been sailing under-the-radar. He's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball having surrendered just six runs in his last six starts spanning 37 1/3 innings. He is 2-0 lifetime against the Royals in two career starts with a 0.68 ERA and a 17-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Royals rank 25th in runs and 27th in homers. Kansas City starter Carlos Hernandez also has been hot. His last two starts have both come against the White Sox, who have scored the sixth-most runs per game in the majors. Hernandez held the White Sox to one run on six hits in 11 innings during these starts with 10 strikeouts. The Yankees just were shut out, 2-0, by the Mariners on Sunday. New York is minus Anthony Rizzo and Gary Sanchez. Those two players have hit 17 homers apiece this season. The Under is 12-2 in the Yankees' last 14 road contests, while the Under is 8-1-2 during the Royals' last 11 games as a home 'dog.
08-08-21	Mets v. Phillies UNDER 8.5	Top	0-3	Win	100	8 h 50 m	Show
A discussion of National League Cy Young Award candidates should include Zach Wheeler. He's replaced Aaron Nola as the top pitcher on the Phillies staff. Wheeler is 9-6 with a 2.57 ERA. He leads the National League with 170 strikeouts. Wheeler has been at his best in day action going 5-1 with a 1.70 ERA. He's facing a slumping Mets team that is averaging only 2.8 runs during their last 17 games. Mets starter Taijuan Walker has proven talented when healthy, which he is now. He's 7-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He catches a Phillies lineup that could be minus three of their infielders as Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorius and Jean Segura are all nursing injuries. Both pitchers should be helped by the wind blowing in to left at 8 mph.
08-07-21	Marlins v. Rockies -155	Top	4-7	Win	100	16 h 10 m	Show
Austin Gomber sounds like he could be a relative of Gomber and Goober Pyle. But there's nothing funny about how he has been pitching. Gomber is 6-1 with a 2.08 ERA during his last 10 starts. Gomber knows how to pitch at Coors Field, too, where he is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA this season. Pitching at Coors is a relatively new experience for Jesus Luzardo. So is pitching in the majors. This is just his second big league start of the season for Luzardo, who has thrown 5 2/3 career innings at Coors and has a 7.94 ERA to show for that. The Rockies and Marlins are bottom-feeders. But Colorado is a completely different team at Coors compiling a 36-21 mark there this season. The Marlins traded Starling Marte, their lone dynamic player.
08-06-21	Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9	Top	2-4	Win	100	15 h 30 m	Show
Considering their huge payroll and name hitters in their lineup, it's shocking the Mets rank 29th in runs. New York hasn't scored more than 5 runs during its last 15 games. So I'm not expecting a big offensive showing from the Mets against Kyle Gibson and a Phillies bullpen that improved their depth at the trade deadline. Gibson is enjoying a long-awaited breakthrough season with a 2.86 ERA. His ERA with the Phillies is 2.70. The Mets are going with Marcus Stroman, who is the best active pitcher on their staff with Jacob deGrom on IL. Stroman has been solid all season with a 2.80 ERA. He has a 2.50 career ERA versus the Phillies. Stroman has a 2.19 ERA when pitching in night games this season. Friday Free Bonus Play Red Sox plus $1.28 at Blue Jays The Red Sox didn't play well against the Tigers on Thursday and they were smacked, 8-1. The Red Sox are a high quality team in bounce back mode. They are 31-24 on the road. That loss to the Tigers should wake up the Red Sox. So I'm attracted to taking a 'dog price on them. The pitching matchup is Nathan Eovaldi versus rookie Alek Manoah. I really like Manoah, who has struck out 56 batters in 47 1/3 innings. He can be inconsistent, like most young pitchers, but this isn't a play against him. Rather it's a value play on the Red Sox. Boston is averaging just 2.5 runs in its last nine games. The Red Sox are putting on baserunners, though. They're just not capitalizing as during their last nine games they've knocked in only nine of 75 runners in scoring position, a meager 12 percent. That percentage is due to rise. Eovaldi has been steady with a 9-6 mark and 3.71 ERA in 21 starts this year. He holds a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in eight career appearances against Toronto. Eovaldi faced the Blue Jays on June 14 and held them scoreless during his 6 2/3 innings.
08-05-21	Royals v. White Sox -1.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-106	14 h 54 m	Show
The White Sox should be steaming mad having been embarrassed, 9-1, at home by the Royals Wednesday. Dallas Keuchel shouldn't lack motivation either as he takes the mound for Chicago after failing to hold a 6-1 lead against the Indians in his last start this past Saturday. Keuchel, a two-time All-Star, is past his prime at 33. But he's not over-the-hill. He's backed by an improved bullpen that recently added Craig Kimbrel. I expect a kill spot here for the White Sox facing lefty Daniel Lynch. The White Sox are 38-19 at home. They are 20-10 versus southpaw starters. The Royals are 18-35 on the road.
08-04-21	Braves -115 v. Cardinals	Top	7-4	Win	100	14 h 49 m	Show
The Braves scored five runs in the first inning on lefty Jon Lester on Tuesday. Now the Braves get to face another over-the-hill southpaw, J.A. Happ. Atlanta strengthened itself at the trade deadline especially when it comes to right-handed power getting Jorge Soler and Adam Duvall. I can see the Braves steamrolling Happ, who has given up 4 or more earned runs in 10 of his last 14 starts. Drew Smyly goes for Atlanta. He's allowed 3 runs or fewer in each of his last 10 starts. Smyly is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in two career starts versus St. Louis. He pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings against the Cardinals on June 20 giving up only an infield single.
08-03-21	Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5	Top	1-3	Win	100	16 h 19 m	Show
Don't get fooled by the 19 runs scored in the Giants' 11-8 extra inning win against the Diamondbacks on Monday. I'm expecting a much different type of score in this game. Projected starters Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner are both past their prime. Agreed. But both are in excellent form. Cueto has a 2.30 ERA in his last three starts. He just shut out the Dodgers in his last start this past Thursday holding LA scoreless for 5 2/3 innings on four hits. Arizona is well below average offensively. The Diamondbacks have hit the second-fewest homers in the majors. The Giants were able to rest their two best relievers, Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers, in their Monday victory. Bumgarner has a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts. He should be pumped going against his former team.
08-02-21	Mariners v. Rays OVER 8.5	Top	8-2	Win	100	17 h 18 m	Show
I like the Rays, but I don't like them when Michael Wacha pitches. I like the Mariners when Chris Flexen pitches at home. Flexen is on the road. The combination of Flexen on the road versus Wacha helps put me on the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs. Seattle has scored 4 or more runs in eight of its last nine games. The addition of power-hitting Nelson Cruz has made Tampa Bay more dangerous. The Rays are averaging 8.2 runs in their last four games. Flexen isn't the same away from pitcher-friendly Seattle. He has a 5.92 road ERA compared to a 2.67 home ERA. Wacha has a 4.79 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. He's a below average starter with a bad history against the Mariners - 8.25 ERA and 2.33 WHIP in 12 previous innings against them. The Over has cashed the past five times the teams have played in Tropicana Field.
08-01-21	Brewers +137 v. Braves	Top	2-1	Win	137	10 h 34 m	Show
The Braves have home field and the better starting pitcher. But that's it. The Brewers hold the rest of the edges and are a superior team. Milwaukee is 19 games above .500. Atlanta has a losing record. The Brewers have proven themselves on the road going 33-19. There's too much value to pass up Milwaukee here. The pitching matchup is Brett Anderson versus Charlie Morton. Anderson has a 3.86 ERA. He's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, but a very legitimate one. Anderson is more than capable of throwing five solid innings before turning things over to a very strong Brewers bullpen. The Braves dealt for Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario to beef up their offense. Their attack, though, needed beefing up after losing Ronald Acuna to injury and Marcell Ozuna to suspension. The right-handed Morton has a 3.72 ERA, which isn't that much lower than Anderson's. Milwaukee is 20-6 (77 percent) the past 26 times facing a righty starter. The Braves bullpen is slightly below average with a 4.39 ERA.
07-31-21	A's v. Angels UNDER 10	Top	0-1	Win	100	13 h 34 m	Show
If you can't beat him, walk him. That's been the A's motto this series when facing Shohei Ohtani. It's paid off for Oakland as they have shut out the Angels in each of the first two games. Oakland can get away with this strategy because the Angels are missing three key bats - Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh. These injuries have taken a toll. The Angels have scored 4 or fewer runs in nine of their last 12 games. The A's, though, haven't been lighting the scoreboard on fire either. They've been held to 4 or fewer runs in six of their past seven games. The total is high because of the pitching matchup, Cole Irvin versus Jaime Barria. Irvin, however, has been sneaky effective with a respectable 3.62 ERA. Barria has a fat 6.23 ERA. However, he's only thrown 13 innings. Barria made his first start of the year this past Sunday and held the Twins to two runs on four hits in seven innings. His fastball topped off higher than 95 mph in that game, the fastest he's ever thrown. There is wind blowing out to right at about 9 mph, but this is more than offset with Tripp Gibson being the projected home plate umpire. The Under is a staggering 16-4 (80 percent) in games Gibson has been the home plate umpire in this season.

Service	Profit
Matt Fargo	$1,108
Dr. Chuck	$1,048
Tim Michael	$978
ProSportsPicks	$867
Alex Smart	$722
Jim Feist	$609
Jimmy Boyd	$535
Rocky Atkinson	$384
John Martin	$378
Ricky Tran	$323

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