|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-15-22||Aces v. Sun OVER 159.5||76-105||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
The up-tempo pace was good in Game 2 of this WNBA championship series this past Tuesday. Kelsey Plum broke out of her shooting slump. Yet the total still went Under because the Sun uncharacteristically shot 42 percent from the floor, made only 3 of 14 3-point shots and hit just 67 percent of their free throws in losing, 85-71. The officials let a lot of rough play go without calling fouls. That didn't help the Under either. The result of this is the oddsmaker has set the lowest total of the series for this Game 3. Early activity in the marketplace has knocked the total down even more. The Aces, the highest-scoring team in the WNBA at 90.4 points per game, are going to get their points. I see the Sun getting back to normal with their scoring returning home having played the first two games in Las Vegas. Connecticut averages 85.8 points, third-best in the league, ranked No. 2 in field goal percentage at 46.2 and rated No. 3 in 3-point percentage at 35.4. The Sun also shoot 78.9 percent from the free throw line. Las Vegas is well-coached by Becky Hammon. But the Aces are not a strong defensive club. They lack Connecticut's height and don't have much depth. They win with offense. This is do-or-die for the Sun because the format is best-of-five and they are down 2-0. So there could be a lot of fouling at the end by the Sun if they are trailing.
|09-13-22||Sun v. Aces OVER 163.5||Top||71-85||Loss||-110||11 h 4 m||Show|
What are the ramifications from a totals standpoint following the Aces' 67-64 Game 1 victory against the Sun in the WNBA Finals?
We have the lowest total on an Aces game all season. All three regular season matchups between these teams finished with a total above this number. The Sun and Aces averaged 181.3 points during their three regular season matchups.
So was the meager 131 combined points in Saturday's game an outlier, or indicative of the kind of low-scoring game we will get today?
Both teams shot poorly from the floor. The Sun were held to 37.8 percent from the floor, while the Aces made fewer than 40 percent of their field goals.
I see a more loose game today. The Aces were the No. 1 scoring team in the WNBA averaging 90.4 points. However, they also gave up the fourth-most points in the 12-team league. The Sun can take advantage of that with their height advantage. Connecticut was the No. 3 scoring team averaging 85.8 points. The Sun, though, were below average in defensive field goal percentage.
Both teams are due to shoot better, especially Aces All-Star guard Kelsey Plum, who missed eight of nine shots from the floor in Game 1. Plum was cold in the Aces' semifinal series against the Storm, too. But the shots and looks were there for her. She's overdue for a big performance.
|09-11-22||Sun v. Aces -5.5||64-67||Loss||-115||14 h 53 m||Show|
The Aces have the talent, best player on the court in A'ja Wilson, best guard in Kelsey Plum and a tremendous coach, WNBA Coach of the Year Becky Hammon. Oh, yes, the Aces are in a great situational spot here in this first game of the WNBA Finals against the Suns.
Given all of these factors, I see Las Vegas covering this spread.
The Aces last played Tuesday. They've had four full days to rest and prepare for Connecticut having already been on the West Coast. The Sun had to go the full five games in their semifinal series against the Sky. They upset the Sky in Chicago this past Thursday. This marks Connecticut's fourth game in seven days. The Sun are coming in from the East Coast and this is an early start time especially for them.
Las Vegas won two of the three regular season meetings between the two teams. The Sun have the deeper bench. But that isn't going to matter in this opening game. The Aces have the superior starting lineup and Hammon is going to ride that. I don't see the Sun slowing down the Aces' offense, which was the best in the league.
|09-08-22||Sun +4.5 v. Sky||72-63||Win||100||8 h 3 m||Show|
The Sun just didn't beat the Sky this past Tuesday at home to tie this semifinal series at 2-2, they buried Chicago, 104-80. That sets up this deciding Game 5 in Chicago.
Connecticut has the confidence and momentum to upset the defending champion Sky in Chicago. Getting this many points is a nice bonus.
The Sun are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games. Chicago is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on one day rest.
The taller Sun frontline dominated the Sky in Tuesday's game with 66 points in the paint. Candace Parker is forced to do too much and fatigue is wearing her down. The Sky's backcourt also hasn't been playing well, turning the ball over too many times.
|09-06-22||Aces v. Storm +1||Top||97-92||Loss||-110||19 h 3 m||Show|
It may have been the best game of the entire WNBA season when Las Vegas beat Seattle on the road two days ago in overtime, 110-98. The Aces forced overtime by scoring at the buzzer. The Storm blew a 4-point lead with 11 seconds left. Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting. But the Storm's Tina Charles missed a pair of free throws near the end that would have likely sealed the victory in regulation for Seattle. The Storm also was outshot from 3-point range by Las Vegas in Sunday's loss.
The Aces can clinch the semifinal series with a victory today leading the best-of-five series 2-1. Seattle won the first game of the series. The Aces have won the last two.
But I deeply envision the Storm forcing a Game 5 by winning this home game.
Why? Let me count the reasons:
I don't see the Storm losing in Sue Bird's final career game at home.
I can't see A'Ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray playing any better than they did this past Sunday. They are both excellent players. Wilson might be the best player in the league. But they were both on their ''A'' game. They can only hope to match those performances, which is going to be extremely difficult.
I don't envision Seattle losing for the third time in a row. The only time the Storm lost three in a row was during their second, third and fourth games of the season back in early-to-mid May. The Aces are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory.
I doubt the Aces will shoot better than the Storm from beyond the arc again. Seattle was the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league. The Aces ranked 10th of 12 teams in 3-point defense. Yet Las Vegas made 52 percent of its 28 3-point shots Sunday, while the Storm hit 48 percent of their 27 3-point shots.
|09-04-22||Aces v. Storm OVER 166.5||110-98||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
This is Game 3 of this semifinal series. The first two games easily went Under the total with 149 and 151 points being scored. The result is we have the lowest total of the series for this game.
There are several factors why these two teams should play a much higher scoring game today.
The Aces led the WNBA in scoring at 90.4 points per game. They should get back two-time All-Star forward Darica Hamby, who has yet to play in the series because of a knee injury. She's averaging 9.3 points. That's not a lot of points, but it's an upgrade on the Aces' weak scoring bench.
Las Vegas evened the series by winning Game 2 this past Wednesday. A key to that victory was going to a small-ball lineup using three guards. This gives the Aces more speed and firepower, but leaves 5-foot-7 Chelsea Gray to cover 6-4 Tina Charles, who led the WNBA in scoring last year. The Storm was caught off-guard by this Game 2 development. They'll be ready this time around.
Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting while averaging 82.5 points a game during the regular season. The Storm get back an important player, too. Gabby Williams is expected to play after missing the first two games of the series because of a concussion. She's the Storm's No. 3 scorer at 13 points a game.
The teams should have plenty of energy having been idle since Wednesday.
|08-31-22||Sun v. Sky -4.5||Top||77-85||Win||100||19 h 49 m||Show|
The defending WNBA champion Sky understand how crucial winning Game 2 of this semifinal series against the Sun is after getting upset at home by Connecticut in Game 1. Teams leading the best-of-five playoff series are 15-0 in WNBA history. In other words, no team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. The Sky also realizes that Games 3 and 4 are in Connecticut.
Chicago also was upset in its playoff opener at home last series losing to New York, 98-91. The Sky came back to smash the Liberty by 38 points in Game 2 at home.
The Sun are tough inside. They defeated the Wings in their previous playoff series despite making only 13 of 46 3-pointers. Connecticut was able to hurt Dallas inside. The Sky hold a backcourt edge and they have the bigs with Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman to combat Jonquel Jones, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas.
|08-28-22||Sun +4 v. Sky||68-63||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
The Sun have covered in their last seven road games. They are a blistering 13-3 (81%) ATS in their past 16 games. I'm backing the Sun to cover - if not upset - Chicago on the road in this opening WNBA semifinal series.The Sky has lost four of their last seven games. They are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Chicago opened its previous series with a 98-91 home loss to New York as a 10-point favorite. Connecticut should be less rusty than Chicago having last played this past Wednesday. The Sky clinched their series against the Liberty this past Tuesday. The Sky went 4-0 against Connecticut during the regular season. Yet three of those four games were decided by four points or less with the game tied or the Sun leading in the fourth quarter or overtime. Chicago is the defending WNBA champion. Connecticut, though, has plenty of postseason experience having reached the semifinals for each of the last four seasons. The Sky eliminated them in the playoffs last year. The Sun have been pointing to this first game and getting revenge for a long time. Now is their chance.
|08-24-22||Sun -4.5 v. Wings||Top||73-58||Win||100||19 h 48 m||Show|
This is the third and deciding game in this playoff series. The Sun are at least one level higher than the Wings. Perhaps they got overconfident, though, after they buried Dallas, 93-68, in Game 1. The Wings came back to upset the Sun, 89-79, this past Sunday. Both of those games were in Connecticut.
That was the Wings' first playoff victory since 2009. Now Dallas is likely to get back Arike Ogunbowale, its leading scorer. The Wings are the home team here.
Things are looking up for the Wings, right?
Perhaps. But I don't see the Wings upsetting the Sun again in this winner-take-all matchup. Connecticut has more talent, deeper bench and big-game playoff experience. Ogunbowale has missed eight of Dallas' last nine games. So she could be rusty. The Wings did fine without her to make the playoffs.
Connecticut is looking to reach the semifinals for the fourth consecutive season. Dallas has one playoff victory in the last 13 years. The Sun had the second-best road record in the league at 12-6. The Wings have a losing home mark. The Sun also have covered their past six away contests and are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've played in Dallas.
|08-21-22||Wings +12 v. Sun||89-79||Win||100||2 h 33 m||Show|
The Sun is the superior team. No argument there. But the Wings are much better than they showed in the playoff opener when they were embarrassed by the Sun, 93-68. I see the Wings playing much better while giving everything they have with their season on the brink here. Dallas did beat the Sun two of three during the regular season. The Wings have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 6-1 ATS following a loss.
|08-18-22||Mystics v. Storm UNDER 159.5||83-86||Loss||-110||20 h 39 m||Show|
The teams met three times during the regular season. The combined score never exceeded 159 in any of the games. Now we're into the playoffs where defense and intensity goes way up.
The Mystic have held their last 11 opponents to have an average of 74 points a game.
The Storm have held their opponents to fewer than 80 points in 18 of their last 22 games. Seattle may catch a defensive break, too, as Washington's third-leading scorer, Natasha Cloud, injured her knee in Sunday's regular-season finale and isn't likely to be 100 percent.
|08-17-22||Liberty v. Sky -8||Top||98-91||Loss||-105||16 h 24 m||Show|
The defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky host the New York Liberty in this opening playoff game. There's a big class difference between the 26-10 Sky and 16-20 Liberty. The key question is the gap enough for the Sky to cover this number?
I say it is.
The Liberty did well to get into the playoffs. They accomplished the task by winning six of their last eight games. But none of these games was against any of the top five teams in the league. There's a dropoff from the top five teams - Sky, Aces, Sun, Storm and Mystics - to the rest of the league.
Chicago has a huge edge inside. The Sky led the WNBA with an average of 42.1 points in the paint. The Liberty was last in that category, averaging 31.2 points. Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman give the Sky a strong inside presence. Chicago finished No. 1 in the league in field goal percentage. The Sky also have much better depth and bench strength than New York.
The Liberty is highly reliant on star guard Sabrina Ionescu. But she can go hot and cold. New York ranked third-from-the-bottom in scoring. The Liberty did well to reach the postseason. But they aren't going to advance out of the first round.
|08-14-22||Dream v. Liberty -150||Top||83-87||Win||100||17 h 5 m||Show|
The Liberty defeated the Dream, 80-70, on the road two days ago. Now the Liberty gets to host the Dream with a playoff berth on the line. A New York victory clinches a playoff spot for the Liberty while eliminating Atlanta.
I see New York accomplishing that. The point spread is low enough to back the Liberty on the money line.
The Liberty have a stronger talent base with stars Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard. New York also has been playing much better than Atlanta. The Liberty are 5-2 in their last seven games. Their starting lineup and depth is improved with the return of Betnijah Laney from a knee injury. She scored a season-high 17 points against the Dream this past Friday.
The Dream are 2-7 SU, 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games. They have lost three in a row, all by seven or more points.
Atlanta has been short-handed due to injuries and leading-scorer Tiffany Hayes leaving the team to play in a tournament in Turkey.
|08-12-22||Wings v. Mercury +1.5||74-86||Win||100||20 h 51 m||Show|
The Mercury is a home underdog to Dallas. A big reason for this is Phoenix will be without its best player, guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, due to personal reasons. But the situation trumps this development. The Mercury are in a four-way tie for the final two playoff spots. This is their second to last game. They close the regular season against the much tougher defending WNBA champion Sky. This game means nothing to Dallas. The Wings have clinched the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. They are locked into that playoff seeding.
So the game means nothing to Dallas. But do the Mercury still have enough talent to beat even a disinterested Wings squad without Diggins-Smith and injured Diana Taurasi? Yes. They have outstanding guards even minus Diggins-Smith with Diamond DeShields, Shey Peddy and Sophie Cunningham, perhaps the most improved player in the league. The Mercury showed that when they defeated the Liberty, another playoff contender, by 10 points at home this past Saturday without Diggins-Smith and Taurasi.
Phoenix is 10-6 at home this season. Dallas is without a key player, too, as its leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale, is out with a hip injury.
|08-09-22||Dream v. Aces -10.5||Top||90-97||Loss||-110||20 h 47 m||Show|
The Aces got back on track this past Sunday upsetting Seattle on the road, 89-81. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon made a key adjustment starting center Kiah Stokes. That gave the Aces more size and rebounding.
Las Vegas has covered 10 of the last 14 times it has hosted Atlanta. However, the last time the Dream played in Las Vegas, which was on July 19, they upset the Aces, 92-76.
The Aces are in a good spot to exact revenge. The Dream are playing for the fourth time in six days. They just played in Minnesota two days ago. WNBA teams fly commercial, so six games in four days is an extremely tough grind. Making matters worse for the Dream is they are short-handed. They were only able to use eight players in their 10-point loss to the Lynx this past Sunday.
One of Atlanta's missing players against the Lynx was Tiffany Hayes. She is the Dream's leading scorer. Her status is up in the air due to an ankle injury. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
|08-07-22||Sparks v. Mystics -9||Top||79-76||Loss||-110||13 h 43 m||Show|
Out of gas and out of motivation, the Sparks should be no match for Washington. Los Angeles realizes its playoff goal is not going to be met. The Sparks' postseason hopes have realistically been dashed with a six-game losing streak, the latest coming in heart-breaking fashion. That was an 88-86 road loss to Atlanta on Friday where a Sparks' game-tying basketball came just after time expired.
That loss was mentally draining for the Sparks. I don't see them getting right to put forth much of an effort in this mismatch. The Sparks are also physically drained. This is their fourth game in six days, fifth in eight days. The last four all have been away from home LA is 2-6 ATS following a loss. The Sparks have failed to cover in four of their last five visits to Washington D.C.
The Mystics are one of the five best teams in the WNBA. They are at least two levels higher than the Sparks. Washington defeated Las Vegas by 10 points at home this past Tuesday, but then played one of its worst games of the season in a double-digit road loss to the defending champion Sky on Friday. The Mystics rested their superstar, two-time league MVP Elena Delle Donne, in that loss to Chicago. Delle Donne is expected to play against the Sparks.
The Mystics are 6-1 ATS the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Unlike the 12-20 Sparks, I see the Mystics being up for this home game. Given their talent and coaching edges that should mean an easy victory.
|08-06-22||Fever +12.5 v. Wings||91-95||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
Indiana has lost 15 in a row. The Fever, though, has kept six of these last 10 losses to 10 or fewer points. Indiana should provide a full effort as it won't play again for the next six days.
But nearly this entire handicap is based on the situation Dallas finds itself in. The Wings defeated the Sky and Aces - two of the three best teams in the league - during the previous four days to upgrade their playoff position.
Now the Wings are dropping way down in class, while playing for the third time in six days.. I see a letdown occurring here. The Wings are average statistically. They play at the second-slowest pace in the league. I don't believe the Wings can cover this large of a number especially given the probable letdown factor.
|08-05-22||Mystics v. Sky -5.5||83-93||Win||100||8 h 11 m||Show|
I want the Sky, the best team in the WNBA, going for me after they were upset by the Wings in their last game this past Tuesday.
The Mystics, on the other hand, are coming off a huge home victory against the Aces, the second-best team in the WNBA.
The prideful defending champion Sky were extremely sloppy against Dallas. I'm expecting them to clean up their act going against one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Chicago has covered 20 of the last 27 times versus above .500 opponents.
The Mystics aid they will be resting Elena Delle Donne today. She's a superstar and the Mystics' best player leading them in scoring and rebounding.
|08-03-22||Fever v. Dream UNDER 158.5||81-91||Loss||-115||8 h 31 m||Show|
These are the two-lowest scoring teams in the WNBA. Indiana is playing the string out saddled with a 14-game losing streak. The Fever won't have Kelsey Mitchell, their lone offensive threat. She's out for the season with a foot injury. Mitchell was averaging 18.4 points. The Fever's next highest scorer averages 13.6 points. Indiana only has two players averaging in double figures now with Mitchell out.
The Fever have failed to reach 80 points in six of their last seven games. Atlanta is a respectable middle-of-the-road defensive team. The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times Indiana has played on the road.
The Dream has failed to reach 80 points in six of their last nine games. The Under has cashed in 16 of their last 23 home games.
The teams last met on June 5 in Atlanta. There were only 141 points scored in that game.
|08-02-22||Sparks v. Liberty OVER 163.5||73-102||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
The Sparks are smaller and playing faster now that they no longer have Liz Cambage, their big center who slowed their attack down. The Liberty is giving up 83.8 points per game, which ranks eighth out of 12 teams.
New York is averaging 84.3 points in its last three games. The Liberty should exceed that as the Sparks have the second-worst defense in the WNBA.
The Over has cashed four of the last five times the teams have met in New York.
|07-31-22||Mercury v. Liberty +1.5||69-89||Win||100||2 h 15 m||Show|
Phoenix is playing better winning three of its last four games. But all of those games were at home. The Mercury have to make the long cross-country journey to face New York, which desperately needs a victory in hopes of making the playoffs, being two games out from being the last seed. This is a day game, too, which makes it even rougher on Phoenix.
The Mercury haven't played in an Eastern Standard Time Zone game since mid-June. Phoenix is 4-11 on the road this season.
The teams met on July 7 in Phoenix and the Mercury won, 84-81. Home court should translate into a victory this time around for the Liberty.
|07-30-22||Wings v. Dream OVER 163.5||81-68||Loss||-110||16 h 28 m||Show|
I find this total to be short given this matchup. The Wings have allowed at least 83 points in nine of their last 10 games. During this 10-game span, Dallas is giving up an average of 86.4 points a game. The Dream are allowing an average of 86.3 points in their last three games. These matchups were against the Lynx, Storm and Sparks. All three of those opponents are below average scoring teams. The Over has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the teams have met in Atlanta. Note, too, that this line opened pick. So overtime is a more realistic possibility than normal.
|07-29-22||Aces v. Fever +14||93-72||Loss||-110||16 h 30 m||Show|
The Aces are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending champion Sky, 93-83, in Chicago on Tuesday. At stake was the Commissioner's Cup, which the Aces won for the first time in franchise history, along with establishing who is the team to beat this season in the WNBA.
It was a monster victory for Las Vegas.
So the Aces can be excused if they take Indiana - the worst team in the league - too lightly. The Fever have lost 12 in a row, a young team clearly in rebuild mode.
The key question here is can the Aces still cover this large of a road number even if they play well below their standards in such an obvious letdown spot?
I say no. Las Vegas is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times it has played a below .500 opponent. The teams met eight days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won that game by less than this point spread, 90-77.
Indiana has covered four of its past seven games. So the Fever still are trying. They have two talented players in Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith. The Fever should be rested and ready having not played since last Sunday.
|07-28-22||Lynx +2 v. Dream||Top||92-85||Win||100||6 h 25 m||Show|
This is a crucial game for the Lynx. They trail the Dream by 2 1/2 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA. The Lynx have just seven games left. But they have hope if they win here because their next game is against the Sparks on Sunday. The Sparks are 12-15 and going through turmoil after cutting center Liz Cambage. A big key here is Sylvia Fowles is expected to play for Minnesota. She missed the Lynx's last game this past Sunday against Connecticut. She's the Lynx's leading scorer and rebounder. Minnesota has lost three in a row. Two of those defeats, though, came to Connecticut. The other occurred to Washington. Now the Lynx is stepping down in class. The Lynx are 5-1 ATS the last six times they've gone against a below .500 team. Minnesota has covered four of its last five away contests. The Lynx lost to the Sky by three points and to the Aces by one point during their past five road games. Those are the two best teams in the WNBA.
|07-24-22||Wings -6 v. Fever||96-86||Win||100||12 h 14 m||Show|
Dallas is 11-15 and hoping to land a playoff berth. The Wings can't take a loss to this opponent.
Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA at 5-24. The Fever are in free fall. They've lost 11 in a row - all by seven or more points with the averaging losing margin being 14.5 points.
The Wings were competitive in their last two games taking on the defending champion Sky in a home-road series. The Sky have the best record in the league at 21-6. Now the Wings are stepping down in class. They played the Fever a month ago and buried them, 94-68.
I have to believe the Wings are going to win this game. The Fever haven't been competitive. So I'll lay the points.
|07-23-22||Sparks v. Aces UNDER 174||66-84||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
The season stats show the Sparks and Aces each ranking among the bottom three in defense. Lately, though, both teams have exhibited stronger defensive play. This is a rivalry matchup, too. So I'm going Under.
The Sparks have held their last three opponents to an average of 79 points a game. That's six points below their season average.
Aces coach Becky Hammon knows her team has to improve their defense if they're going to win the league title. Las Vegas held Indiana to 77 points in its last game this past Thursday. Even the 77-point figure is misleading because the Aces build up a huge lead. The Fever scored a bunch of points during garbage time.
''I told them I really don't care about offense,'' Hammon said after Thursday's game. ''I just wanted to see them play defense and they did that for the most part.'' The Aces have held their past four foes to an average of 81.5 points, which is four below their season average.
The Sparks have had trouble scoring against the Aces, averaging 73.6 points in three games versus Las Vegas this season. LA never scored more than 76 points during any of the three matchups.
|07-22-22||Storm -6 v. Mercury||78-94||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
Phoenix is the second-worst ATS team in the WNBA. The Mercury also rank second-to-last in rebounding and defense. They are a small, guard-oriented team that is without one of their better backcourt players, Diamond DeShields. She remains sidelined with a hip injury.
The Mercury also have been negatively impacted psychologically with the absence of their star center, Brittney Griner, who remains in legal difficulty in Russia.
Both teams need this game. The Storm is one of the elite teams in the league. They are playing for playoff seeding and coming off a 78-74 road loss to the defending champion Sky this past Wednesday. Seattle was outrebounded by 10 boards in that game. The defeat halted a four-game Seattle win streak.
The Storm have covered the past four times following a loss. They also will have a rare rebounding edge against Phoenix. It's a huge game for Tina Charles, who came to Seattle after Phoenix released her. The former All-Star did not have a pleasant stay with the Mercury.
I don't trust the Mercury even though they are one game out of the playoffs. They rarely beat an elite team and fail to close against weaker opponents. Phoenix could be rusty, too, having not played since last Sunday. The Mercury are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on three or more days rest.
|07-21-22||Dream v. Sparks -122||78-85||Win||100||15 h 48 m||Show|
These teams have similar records. Atlanta is 12-14. LA is 11-14. The spot and situation, though, greatly favor the home Sparks.
Atlanta is off its best win of the season, upsetting Las Vegas as a double-digit road 'dog this past Tuesday. That puts the Dream in a letdown spot here while they also carry a fatigue rating. This marks Atlanta's fourth game in seven days - all at different venues.
LA is the far fresher team. The Sparks have been at home for their past six games. This is the finale of a seven-game homestand and only their second game in seven days. If the Sparks beat the Dream they finish their homestand with a 4-3 winning record.
The Sparks haven't been able to defeat the top teams in the league. But they have taken care of business against the so-so, lower echelon teams like the Dream beating the Wings, Liberty, Mercury and Fever while losing to the Storm, Mystics and Sky during their last seven games.
|07-20-22||Storm v. Sky UNDER 161.5||Top||74-78||Win||100||10 h 8 m||Show|
Seattle is the top defensive team in the WNBA ranking first in 3-point defense and second in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Storm have held their last four opponents to an average of 70.2 points. The Sky could be without double-digit scoring guard Courtney Vandersloot, who is questionable due to a concussion. She missed Chicago's previous game this past Saturday against the Wings in Dallas.
The Sky have limited their past three opponents to an average of 74.6 points. They rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring defense.
Another key factor to the Under is the early start time, which is 9 a.m. West Coast time for Seattle. The Storm has been on West Coast time for the last two weeks.
The Sky hasn't played since that road win against Dallas, which was five days ago. So they could be rusty.
|07-19-22||Dream +12.5 v. Aces||Top||92-76||Win||100||10 h 2 m||Show|
Las Vegas is back on track going 3-0 following All-Star break. The Aces' three victories all came on the road with two coming against the Liberty in revenge mode and the other occurring this past Sunday against the Sun in a major challenge.
Now the Aces return home to face the lowly Dream. I see a letdown coming from the Aces. So I'll take double-digit points with Atlanta.
The Aces have failed to cover in their last six home games. They are 2-4 SU during these recent home games. Las Vegas often is overpriced. The Aces have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games overall.
Atlanta has covered the past four times versus Western Conference teams. The Dream have a winning point spread road record.
The Dream defeated the Mercury, 85-75, this past Sunday in Phoenix. That was a huge morale boost for the Dream and showed they have quality reserves as their leading scorer, Rhyne Howard, Nia Coffey and Monique Billings all missed that game due to injuries.
I'm not worried if Coffey and Billings are out. Howard is the Dream's star and she's questionable. It's a nice bonus if she does play, but I'll still take the Dream with this many points regardless of her status.
|07-19-22||Liberty +8 v. Sun||63-82||Loss||-110||11 h 50 m||Show|
Connecticut is right there with Chicago, Las Vegas, Washington and Seattle among the top five teams in the WNBA. There's a dropoff after those teams.
But this is too many points for the Sun to be laying especially since they won't have Jonquel Jones. She leads Connecticut in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Jones tested positive for COVID-19.
New York has been very tough on the road going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS during its last seven away contests. During this span, the Liberty has posted straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Aces, Sun and Mystics.
The Liberty doesn't lack for talent with Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard among the best players in the league. New York shouldn't lack motivation either after an embarrassing 34-point home loss to the Aces this past Thursday.
While the Liberty was idle for the past four days, the Sun last played two days ago in an emotional home game against the Aces. This is Connecticut's fourth game in seven days and they are short-handed without Jones.
|07-17-22||Lynx v. Mystics -4.5||57-70||Win||100||4 h 7 m||Show|
Minnesota has been playing better. However, this is just a brutal spot for the Lynx. It's their fourth game in six days. Word has it, too, that the Lynx had airline trouble on their way back from Indiana after beating the Fever two days ago. The Mystics had won four of their last five until losing three days ago to the Mercury in Phoenix. The Mystics are rested and ready now. They have the top defense in the league and also the best point spread record at 16-10 ATS.
|07-16-22||Sky -4.5 v. Wings||89-81||Win||100||8 h 4 m||Show|
Both teams are in action for the third time in six days. That's a heavy load in the WNBA. Chicago, though, is the best team in the league. One reason why the defending champion Sky are so good is their deep bench.Chicago is off double-digit victories against the Dream and Sparks aided by its deep roster. The Sky are 8-1 in their last nine games. The 18-6 Sky now draw another below .500 opponent in the Wings. The Sky won't play again for four more days. So they should be focused. Candace Parker certainly should be motivated. She was held scoreless for the first time in her 15-year WNBA career in Chicago's last game.
|07-15-22||Lynx -3 v. Fever||87-77||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
Minnesota is in must-win mode after losing, 92-87, at home to the Wings on Thursday. The Lynx are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot.
The Lynx also have double revenge motivation. They are a lot stronger now with Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup.
Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA with a 5-20 record. Done for the season, the Fever are going with young players in rebuild mode. They have the worst defense in the league.
|07-06-22||Liberty v. Aces UNDER 170||Top||116-107||Loss||-105||11 h 13 m||Show|
The Aces can't wait until All-Star break, which for them comes after this game. The Aces need to regroup going 2-4 in their last six games, including a 102-71 loss in their game this past Sunday on the road against Minnesota.
Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon and her team have been talking about urgency on defense since that loss. New York is the lowest scoring team in the WNBA averaging 77.3. The Liberty have averaged 77.1 points in regulation during their last six games.
The Liberty are highly reliant on the outside shooting of Sabrina Ionescu. She's been cold, though, shooting a combined 11-for-37 (29.7 percent) from the field in New York's last two games. The Liberty rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. Las Vegas is fifth in 3-point defense.
Las Vegas still leads the WNBA in scoring at 89 points per game. However, unlike earlier in the season, opponents aren't getting caught unprepared by first-year Aces coach Hammon's new-look offense. They've worked on slowing down the Aces, who like to play up-tempo since they have a small lineup. Expect the Liberty to slow the pace here. The Under has cashed in 10 of the Liberty's last 13 (77 percent) games against Western Conference teams.
The Aces haven't scored more than 80 points in regulation during four of their last five games. New York ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage.
|07-03-22||Mystics v. Sun -5||Top||72-74||Loss||-110||12 h 22 m||Show|
This is a battle of the second and third-best teams in the Eastern Conference, who are in back of the defending champion Chicago Sky.
Connecticut is 7-2 in its last nine games if you take away two losses the Sun suffered to the Sky, who are tied for the best record in the WNBA with Las Vegas at 15-5.
The Sun have tremendous urgency here in protecting their home court. But the key is Elena Delle Donne is not going to play for Washington. She's a superstar and the Mystics' leading scorer at 15.3 points. She is being rested.
Connecticut hosted Washington on May 28. Delle Donne did not play in that game either. The Sun won, 79-71. Washington is 1-3 the last four times Delle Donne has sat out.
|07-01-22||Fever +13.5 v. Storm||57-73||Loss||-110||9 h 29 m||Show|
Fresh off a huge victory against Las Vegas two days ago, the Storm are in letdown mode hosting last-place Indiana.
Seattle does not have a good track record in these situations: 8-22 ATS versus below .500 opponents, 3-10 ATS following a victory and 0-5 ATS the past five times hosting the Fever.
Indiana should put forth an effort after being ripped by its coach following a blowout road loss to Phoenix two days ago. The Fever is capable of pulling off upsets. They've pulled off two of them in their last six games beating the defending champion Sky and Lynx.
The Fever haven't matched up well against the rejuvenated Mercury losing to them three times in their last six games. But this is a different opponent.
|06-30-22||Dream v. Liberty -4.5||92-81||Loss||-115||7 h 47 m||Show|
The Liberty has stepped up their game going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. New York beat Atlanta, 89-77, on the road in its last game six days ago. So the Liberty will be well rested for this rematch. They don't play again until Sunday so their focus should be there, too. Atlanta has been playing short-handed. The Dream have lost three in a row and carry a fatigue rating having just played two days ago, dropping a 92-74 game on the road to Washington. This is the Dream's third game in five days.
|06-29-22||Aces v. Storm OVER 164.5||Top||78-88||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
This matchup features the WNBA's No. 1 scorer (Breanna Stewart), No. 2 scorer (Kelsey Plum) and No. 6 scorer (A'ja Wilson).
But there's more than those excellent scorers as to why I like this total to go Over. Both rotations are aided in the production department. Las Vegas has back from injury sharpshooter Riquna Williams while the Storm just picked up veteran star Tina Charles after she left the Mercury.
Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring. The Aces have scored at least 89 points in nine of their last 13 games.
Seattle ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in 3-point accuracy. The Storm should be offensive-minded after scoring only nine points in the fourth quarter during an 85-77 home loss to the Sparks this past Saturday in their last game. The Storm have been stressing offense during the past three days since they last played. Their energy level should be high.
The Over has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams.
|06-25-22||Mystics v. Aces -8||Top||87-86||Loss||-110||21 h 16 m||Show|
Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday.
Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics.
Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue.
There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter.
But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics.
|06-21-22||Lynx +6 v. Mercury||84-71||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
The season record shows the Lynx at 3-13. But Minnesota is a well-coached, spunky underdog. The Lynx usually can be counted on for a strong effort. That's certainly been the case recently. They nearly upset the Storm and Aces during their last two games.
Minnesota has lost its last three games by a combined seven points. Phoenix has been a disappointment this season. The Mercury haven't won by more than five points in regulation in 12 of their last 14 games. They lack depth and have been horrible at closing games out. This is the largest Phoenix has been favored all season.
One problem the Mercury have had is the on-going saga of their star big player, seven-time All-Star Brittney Griner. She's been detained in Russia since February. This has been a constant black cloud and distraction for the team. Members of the Mercury just met with State Department officials recently to try to get Griner released. Her safety remains a constant worry for her teammates. This is what veteran guard Diana Taurasi said, "We want (Griner) to come home as soon as possible; it's No. 1 on our list.''
The Lynx don't have that distraction. They are desperate for a victory having come so close recently against better competition.
|06-19-22||Lynx +15.5 v. Aces||95-96||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
The Lynx are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times against the Aces when playing in Las Vegas. This includes covering a 10-point spread against the Aces on May 19.Minnesota nearly upset Seattle in its last game five days ago, losing by two points as an 8 1/2-point 'dog. The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. But their bench isn't very good. So the backdoor should remain open if the Aces were to build a big lead. If you exclude the Sparks, the Aces have only one win by more than 12 points during their last eight games.
|06-19-22||Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174||95-96||Loss||-110||5 h 53 m||Show|
This is by far the highest total on a Lynx game and it doesn't make sense to me given the matchup.Yes, the Aces are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging nearly 91 points per game. But Minnesota is the second-lowest scoring team in the WNBA at 77.3 points. The Lynx do not play fast under respected head coach Cheryl Reeve. They certainly don't figure to get into an up-tempo game on the road against the Aces. Only once in their last six games have the Lynx had a total higher than 158. Previous to this game, the highest total on a Minnesota game was 169 1/2. The Aces have a weak bench so scoring could be down if the Aces build up a huge lead and cut back on their starter's minutes.
|06-16-22||Mystics v. Liberty +4.5||65-77||Win||100||7 h 6 m||Show|
Sparked by star guard Sabrina Ionescu, who finally has managed to stay healthy, the Liberty has won four of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS. Ionescu has sparked this with her hot shooting, scoring 23 or more points in five of her last six games. The Liberty upset the Mystics, 74-70, on the road 13 days ago when Washington had its best player, Elena Delle Donne, in the lineup. Delle Donne is going to be rested in this game. The Mystics have covered just once in their last five games. They are dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fifth time in nine days. Washington also has a look-ahead game hosting the Sun next in a much bigger matchup.
|06-14-22||Mercury v. Mystics OVER 165||65-83||Loss||-110||8 h 51 m||Show|
Phoenix has a lot of star power. The Mercury have been shooting better, too, averaging 86 points in regulation during their last four games. The Mercury, though, have a bottom-three defense. The teams just met two days ago and Phoenix won, 99-90, in overtime. The Mystics, however, didn't have their leading scorer and best player, Elena Delle Donne. Still, they scored 85 points in regulation without her. Delle Donne is expected to play today. Here's an interesting trend that points to the strong possibility of an Over: The Mercury have gone Over in 15 of the last 18 instances when playing an above .500 foe while the Mystics have gone Over 14 of the last 17 times when going against a sub .500 opponent.
|06-11-22||Aces v. Sparks +7||89-72||Loss||-110||8 h 7 m||Show|
The Aces may be the best team in the WNBA. But this spot sets up for the Sparks.Los Angeles is an underachieving 5-7 this season. I put a large part of that blame on the inept coaching of Derek Fisher and inconsistent play of four-time All-Star LIz Cambage. The Sparks finally had enough of Fisher. He was fired this past Tuesday. Assistant Fred Williams is the Sparks' interim coach now. He formerly coached at Utah, Atlanta and Dallas where Cambage played under him four years ago and had her best season. The Sparks should be extremely motivated in Williams' first game as their head coach. This is especially so for Cambage, who is going against her former Las Vegas teammates. If this isn't enough, the Sparks also have revenge for a bad, 104-76, road loss to Las Vegas on May 23. The Sparks have covered 13 of the last 18 times as a home 'dog. They are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've hosted Las Vegas. The Aces haven't played in six days. That's too much time off. So there could be a rust factor to their game.
|06-10-22||Dream v. Mercury -3||Top||88-90||Loss||-110||12 h 5 m||Show|
Given their talent level even without Brittney Griner, the Mercury have been a huge disappointment this season. But Phoenix finally is showing life. The Mercury have covered their last three games beating the Sparks and nearly upsetting powerful Connecticut and defending WNBA champion Chicago.Now the Mercury have their Revenge Game of the Year. The Dream embarrassed them on national television, 81-54, in Atlanta on May 29. Atlanta has tailed off since a surprising strong strong. The Dream have a losing record in their last seven games. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times as underdogs and have failed to cover during five of their last six visits to Phoenix. Look for the Mercury to go full throttle in getting their revenge.
|06-08-22||Fever +15.5 v. Sun||69-88||Loss||-110||9 h 39 m||Show|
Yes, the Fever have the worst record in the WNBA at 3-10. However, they've only lost two games by more than 14 points. The situation lays out for an Indiana cover against what I see as an inflated point spread.
Connecticut is coming off a four-game West Coast trip that was highlighted by a pair of marquee games against Las Vegas. The Sun concluded their road swing with a 93-86 victory against the Storm this past Sunday. The Sun are 1-4 ATS following a victory.
This is Connecticut's first home game since May 28. The Sun have a much bigger game on Friday when they host the defending champion Chicago Sky.
I envision the Fever playing with a lot of intensity here. They have double revenge. The Sun, on the other hand, are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot.
|06-07-22||Lynx v. Liberty -140||69-88||Win||100||17 h 38 m||Show|
New York not only has short revenge for a Sunday home loss to the Lynx, but double revenge, too.
Minnesota won, 84-77. The Lynx shot 49 percent from the floor, made 7 of 13 3-pointers and sank 15 of 20 free throws. Aerial Powers tied her career-high with 27 points on 11 of 22 shooting from the field, including 3-of-3 from beyond the arc.
New York, by contrast, shot 45 percent from the floor, missed 26 of 30 shots from 3-point range and made nine of 13 free throws. Despite this, the Liberty rallied from a 19-point third quarter deficit to come within one point of the Lynx with under four minutes left before slipping back.
The Liberty was playing its best stretch of ball prior to that game winning and covering two in a row.
That was just Minnesota's second road win in seven away contests.
|06-05-22||Mystics +6.5 v. Sky||82-91||Loss||-110||7 h 41 m||Show|
First the bad news in backing the Mystics. No Elena Delle Donne, who is their leading scorer and best player. This is a rest game for her. That's built into the line, though. So I'll take this many points based on the situation and spot.
This is a battle for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Mystics are used to playing without Delle Donne, who frequently has rest days. Washington is coming off a bad Friday home loss to the Liberty as a 12-point favorite.
Washington has covered its last five road games. I think the Mystics give the Sky their best punch. Chicago is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite the past 24 times. Chicago's last five victories have been by an average of fewer than six points.
The Mystics lost earlier to the Sky at home, but are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing them in Chicago.
The Sky loses some of its home court advantage because they had to fly in from Atlanta late Friday night following a hard-fought win against the Dream.
|06-03-22||Sun v. Mercury +5||92-88||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
Rotten timing for the Sun. Connecticut just upset Las Vegas, 97-90, last night in perhaps its most satisfying victory of the season.
Now the Sun have to play for the second time in two nights and third time in four days against a rested and desperate Phoenix squad. All of the Sun's top players logged more than 31 minutes against the Aces last night.
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory.
Phoenix is in dire need of a victory having lost six in a row. The Mercury, though, covered against the Sky losing by three points as a nine-point road 'dog in their last game. That was three days ago. So the Mercury should be much more rested and prepared than Connecticut. This is their first home game since May 19 so they should be fired-up.
The Mercury have talented and prideful players - Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles, Diamond DeShields and the always fiery Diana Taurasi.
|06-02-22||Sun +4.5 v. Aces||Top||97-90||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
The Aces are proving to be the best team in the Western Conference. The Sun could be the top team in the Eastern Conference.
The teams met two days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won, 89-81. The Aces were 4-point favorites in that game. The line is slightly higher now so I'm going to get involved with Connecticut in this rapid revenge, short turnaround.
The Sun are 8-2 ATS following a loss. They also are 9-3 ATS the past dozen times when playing on one day's rest. Connecticut is the No. 2 offensive team in the WNBA behind the Aces and ranks third defensively. Las Vegas is sixth defensively.
I believe the Sun will be more prepared and play better against the Aces than they did on Tuesday.
The Aces went with a zone defense against the Sun. Connecticut had trouble denting it, making just six of 22 3-pointers. The Sun only made 7 of 12 free throws for 58 percent. The Aces, on the other hand, hit 17 of 20 free throws. That's quite a free throw disparity.
Reigning WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones had a bad game for the Sun, scoring just eight points. Brionna Jones, who is the Sun's fourth-best player, played fewer than 19 minutes due to foul trouble.
Look for Jones and the Sun to shoot better and get a better free throw breakdown. This should lead to a cover if not outright upset win.
|06-01-22||Fever v. Liberty UNDER 164.5||74-87||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
Neither of these teams are good defensively. Hence, the somewhat high total. However, both are bad offensively, too. That, along with the situation, puts me on the Under.
Indiana is 10th out of 12 teams in field goal percentage. The Fever rank last in free throw percentage.
New York is last in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting.
Now the situation. The Fever are playing without rest, which is a rarity in the WNBA. Indiana was outscored by 20 points in the second half in an 87-75 loss to the Mystics at home last night. Now the Fever had to fly into New York. So expect a slower pace from the Fever.
The Liberty have lost seven in a row. Their 1-7 record is the worst in the league. But they have a real opportunity to halt their losing skid at home here. So expect an intense, defensive effort, something the players have talked about in their pregame comments.
|05-31-22||Wings +1.5 v. Sparks||91-93||Loss||-110||10 h 23 m||Show|
Derek Fisher's poorly coached Sparks have not beaten a winning team since their opener. I don't believe they'll end that streak against the 5-3 Wings. Dallas is stepping down in class after splitting a pair of road games against Connecticut, the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is the Wings' first game in five days so they will be well rested and prepared. The Sparks, on the other hand, will be in action for the fifth time in nine days. LA could have a shorthanded backcourt with Jordan Canada and Lexie Brown both questionable. Canada is the Sparks' third-leading scorer and top assists person. Dallas has covered 20 of the last 27 times as a road 'dog. The Sparks are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing an above .500 opponent.
|05-29-22||Mercury v. Dream||54-82||Loss||-115||13 h 15 m||Show|
Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game.
I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy.
The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points.
The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series.
|05-28-22||Mystics v. Sun UNDER 156.5||71-79||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
I'm expecting a defensive showdown here. Not only are the Mystics and Sun the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, but they also rank first and second, respectively, in defense.The Mystics are holding foes to a WNBA-best 72.4 points per game. Connecticut is right there ranking second, giving up 73.4 points. The Sun also lead the league in creating turnovers and steals. The Mystics will be without their leading scorer, Elena Delle Donne. The star player, averaging 17.7 points, has a scheduled day off, according to Mystics coach Mike Thibault. The Sun recently lost their veteran point guard, Jasmine Thomas, to a season-ending knee injury. Thomas' absence could hurt the Sun's offense in this matchup.
|05-27-22||Liberty +12.5 v. Storm||71-79||Win||100||11 h 41 m||Show|
Seattle has a strong pedigree. But right now Seattle just isn't that good. The Storm are a .500 team that could be 1-5 if not for close victories against the Sky and Sparks. Phoenix's only two wins this season have come against the Storm. The Storm rank 10th in scoring and are last in field goal percentage. Seattle has failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times it has been favored. So I believe the Liberty can hang within single digits. They have better talent than their 1-5 record indicates. New York should have defeated the improved Lynx on the road this past Tuesday. The Liberty blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead. Minnesota made 27 of 33 free throws in that game.
|05-26-22||Wings v. Sun -7||68-99||Win||100||7 h 54 m||Show|
Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak.The Sun may not have had their full focus for that game after finding out that day that their starting point guard, Jasmine Thomas, will miss the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. Thomas has been a veteran leader for the Sun the past seven seasons. The Wings have firepower, but the Sun should be highly motivated for this game. The Sun still have excellent talent with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They've helped the Sun rank as the No. 2 scoring team in the league. Connecticut has adequate replacements for Thomas.
|05-24-22||Fever +13.5 v. Sky||90-95||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that.
Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game.
The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record.
Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss.
|05-23-22||Sparks v. Aces -10||76-104||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS).
This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game.
The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss.
I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here.
|05-22-22||Sky v. Mystics OVER 159.5||82-73||Loss||-110||4 h 10 m||Show|
The Mystics get back Elena Delle Donne, their leading scorer, for this game. That's huge both for Washington and for the total. The Mystics won't have injured guard Alysha Clark, though. That's another plus for the Over because she's an excellent defensive player. These are two of the top-five scoring teams in the WNBA. So I see this total as being short.
|05-21-22||Lynx +5 v. Wings||78-94||Loss||-110||10 h 45 m||Show|
The Lynx are 1-5, but 1-1 since Kayla McBride made her season debut. Minnesota defeated the Sparks and hung in against the Aces during its current road trip going 2-0 ATS. Now they Lynx get the Wings, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Dallas is off a huge, 94-84, win against the Mercury from two days ago. So this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Minnesota has covered five of the past six in the series.
|05-20-22||Fever +14 v. Sun||85-94||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games.
Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things.
So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here.
Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win.
Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta.
The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage.
|05-19-22||Lynx +11 v. Aces||87-93||Win||100||5 h 60 m||Show|
After an 0-4 start, the Lynx got their first win two nights ago beating the Sparks, 87-84. It was not a coincidence that it was Kayla McBride's season debut after returning from Turkey where she led her team to a Turkish title. Minnesota is a much better team with McBride on the court. The Lynx can stay within double-digits of the Aces, who are 2-5 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Lynx, on the other hand, are 12-4-1 ATS following a victory.
|05-11-22||Storm -4.5 v. Mercury||77-97||Loss||-110||10 h 29 m||Show|
I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix.
|05-10-22||Aces v. Mystics +5.5||76-89||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
The Aces blew out the Phoenix Mercury, who were missing Brittney Griner. They then beat the Seattle Storm, who were missing their starting center. So the Aces enter this matchup fat and happy. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home 'dog while the Aces have failed to cover five of the last seven times as chalk.
|05-08-22||Storm v. Aces OVER 175.5||74-85||Loss||-110||12 h 30 m||Show|
The oddsmaker struggles to post accurate numbers during the opening week of the WNBA season. That's especially true when it comes to totals. And he's come up short with this total. Seattle scored 97 points in its opener. Las Vegas scored even more, producing 106. The Aces are going to be much better coached under Becky Harmon this season. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams.
|10-17-21||Mercury v. Sky -4||74-80||Win||100||17 h 31 m||Show|
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days.
|10-15-21||Mercury v. Sky UNDER 167||Top||50-86||Win||100||19 h 17 m||Show|
This total may look short based on Phoenix's 91-86 victory over Chicago two days ago, but it isn't. There were 158 points scored during regulation. It took an overtime for that total to go Over. This is a physical series with a lot of wear and tear that is taking a toll. Sky guard Allie Quigley, for instance, is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. But she's missed 18 of 24 from beyond the range in this series. Chicago has played its best defense of the season during the playoffs. The Sky has the Mercury out of their rhythm. Phoenix is relying on its superstar center Brittney Griner to bail them out with second chance points and inside scoring. Griner is playing well, but she is looking at a fatigue factor not to mention the Sky's strong defense inside the paint. The Mercury is playing for the fifth time in 10 days, which is a lot for a WNBA team. Griner has logged big minutes. She played 41:29 minutes on Wednesday. That has to take a toll.
|10-13-21||Sky v. Mercury -3.5||Top||86-91||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home.
|10-10-21||Sky +3 v. Mercury||91-77||Win||100||5 h 41 m||Show|
The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too.
|10-06-21||Sun v. Sky UNDER 155.5||69-79||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
Connecticut was the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA this season giving up less than 70 points a game. The Sun also ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in 3-point defense. But after losing, 86-83, to Chicago this past Sunday the Sun is on the brink of elimination down 2-1 in this semifinal series. If the Suns are to even things they will need to do it with defense. They certainly have that capability. This is going to be a very physical and intense game. The Sky have done a great job keeping Jonquel Jones and the Sun's inside game in check. Chicago has surrendered an average of 77.2 points in regulation during its five playoff games. This is down from the 81.9 points it permitted during the regular season.