Warning: Use of undefined constant PAGE_HEADER - assumed 'PAGE_HEADER' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/profe126/jesseschule.com/respsportscapping.php on line 15
PAGE_HEADER

Just like the past couple of seasons, the Sky are poorly coached and have low morale. They are 8-16, the fourth worst record in the WNBA.

The Sky's latest internal conflict is veteran guard Skylar Diggins not playing ostensibly because of a knee injury. More like Diggins is trying to dig her way out of a bad situation in Chicago.

The Sky's best player is center Kamilla Cardoso. She missed her first game of the season this past Wednesday because of a knee injury. She is a game time decision here. It would be a huge break for LA if she did not play.

But I like the Sparks regardless if Cardoso plays or not.

The Sparks hosted Chicago last Friday and won, 102-87. Cardoso had 15 points in that game. LA was missing center Cameron Brink, who was out with an ankle injury. Brink is back healthy and gives the Sparks their best rim protector and defensive player.

LA has lost two in a row since defeating the Sky. Those defeats, however, came to the Lynx and Dream. This is a step down for the Sparks.

Led by Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Rae Burrell, the Sparks haven't missed Kelsey Plum's offense. LA is averaging 96.7 points per game in its last four games. That is 10 more points per game than what Chicago averages. 

This is too low of a total for a Portland Fire game. The Fire rank third from last defensively giving up 91.2 points a game. That average goes up even more to 94.4 points per game in regulation during the last nine games.

The Over has cashed in seven of Portland's last nine games.

The Mystics are a below average offensive team. They have not been at full strength, however. Now they are. Washington has enough scoring options with Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron to produce a good point total at home against this weak of a defense playing its third road game in six days.

The key question here is can the Fire hold up their offensive end? They did in the last meeting, which turned epic with the Mystics winning, 124-123, in four overtimes on June 28. The important takeaway is that the game was tied 87-87 going into overtime. So there were 174 points scored in regulation.

The Valkyries are the hottest team in the WNBA winning and covering their last seven games. They have the best point spread record in the league at 14-9 (61 percent). Golden State covered 62 percent of its games last season. It is not a coincidence.

Golden State is the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA giving up 76.2 points a game. That is nearly 13 points fewer than what Indiana permits per game. The Fever rank fourth-from-the-bottom defensively.

The Valkyries are in great defensive form, too, holding their last three opponents to an average of 62.6 points a game.  

Golden State has been idle since Friday. Indiana just concluded a four-game road swing that ended with a blowout victory against the Aces on Sunday. Las Vegas was playing for the second consecutive day.

The Fever have not played at home since June 27. This is a nationally televised (USA Network) game. No big deal for the Fever. But it means something to the Valkyries, who rarely get national TV exposure.

Indiana has far more star power with Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. But Clark has been on a minutes restriction since recovering from a lingering back injury. She is 2-for-11 in 3-point shooting in two games since returning. The Valkyries are No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage.

It is a plus if All-Star Gabby Williams can play for Golden State after missing her first game of the season this past Friday because of a back injury. But even without Williams, I will take points with the superior defensive team that has better team chemistry, a strong bench and is the hottest team in the league. 

Expansion Toronto has exceeded expectations with a 10-13 record. The Tempo are getting a great season from Marina Mabrey, the third-leading scorer in the WNBA at 21.6 points per game.

But 11-10 Washington is vastly superior defensively, and unlike Toronto, is healthy with its leading scorer Sonia Citron back in the lineup.

It is not too much to expect the Mystics to win this game backing them on the money line.

The Tempo halted a four-game losing streak with an upset home victory against the Liberty, 93-91, this past Sunday after nearly blowing a 16-point fourth quarter lead. It has been more than a month since Toronto won consecutive games.

The Mystics rank in the top four in fewest points allowed, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They are giving up an average of 84.3 points a game. That shrinks to just 72.3 points allowed if you go by their last three games.

By contrast, the Tempo surrender 92 points per game. That is the second worst in the league. Toronto's defensive average is even worse if you go by the last 10 games where the Tempo have allowed an average of 96.3 points a game.

The Mystics hold a strong frontcourt edge with Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen. Citron should be in for a good scoring game, too, against Toronto's weak defense.

Mabrey has had to carry the Tempo's backcourt with Brittney Sykes and Kiki Rice sidelined. Mabrey could be tiring as she has been playing heavy minutes and this will be Toronto's fourth game in six days.

This is the third meeting between the two teams. Washington is 2-0 although both victories were close. 

This is a high total. But it's not high enough given the low quality of these two team's defenses.

Los Angeles gives up an WNBA-worst 93.3 points a game. The Sparks also rank second to last in defensive field goal percentage and in defensive rebounding.

The oddsmaker still has not caught up to this as the Over is 8-2 during the Sparks' last 10 games.

Atlanta is last in defensive field goal percentage and second to last in 3-point defense. The Over has cashed in eight of the Dream's last 12 games.

The Sparks have continued to produce a high amount of points despite not having injured star point guard Kelsey Plum. They are averaging 98 points a game during their past five games, discounting an 84-62 loss to the Storm in a game that was a clear outlier.

Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby give the Sparks two excellent frontcourt scorers. Rae Burrell, Erica Wheeler and Ariel Atkins have taken advantage of extra minutes to pick up the scoring in the absence of Plum. The Sparks have scored 102 and 106 points during their past two games.

The Dream feature two of the league's best scorers, Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. They combine to average more than 37 points a game. The Dream can take advantage of center Cameron Brink being out for the Sparks as she is LA's best rim protector and top defensive player.

Not having Brink also speeds up the game for the Sparks as they play at a faster pace without her. The Sparks now play at the second fastest tempo in the league while the Dream play at the fourth fastest pace.

Before losing on the road to a fired up Sparks team, the Sky had been playing well going 3-2. Chicago's two losses during this span had both occurred to the 17-6 Aces, who are tied with the best record in the WNBA. Each of the two losses to Las Vegas came by eight points with one happening in overtime.

Dallas is at least one level lower than Las Vegas and in a vulnerable situational spot. The Wings just completed a highly satisfying four-game road sweep that concluded on Friday night.

This marks the Wings' first home game since June 28. It is a letdown spot for them following their successful road trip.

Dallas nipped Chicago, 93-92, as a 10 1/2-point home favorite on June 20 when the two teams last met. Expect another close game here.

The Lynx are tied with the Aces for the best record in the WNBA at 16-6. This spot sets up well for them - home court, short revenge and the return of star point guard Olivia Miles - to cover against the beat-up Liberty.

New York will be missing two of its better players as Leonie Fiebich (foot) and Satou Sabally (concussion) are out. The Liberty also could be down rotation players Pauline Astier (ankle) and Rebecca Allen (nose). Those two are questionable.

The Liberty defeated the Lynx, 99-86, at home just eight days ago. But now the short-handed Liberty have to come to Minnesota for this early start game. New York has dropped four of its last five road games.

Miles is off the injury report after missing the past two games because of a calf injury. She is averaging 18.7 points, 5.7 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.4 steals while emerging as both a Rookie of the Year and MVP candidate. 

The expansion Tempo are not in the Wings' class. But they are better than a normal expansion team and they are in a good situational spot here.

The Wings are playing their fourth straight road game. They return home for three consecutive games following this matchup. It will be easy for Dallas to overlook Toronto, especially since the Wings encountered no difficulty in defeating the Tempo, 89-76, this past Sunday having never trailed during the game.

Dallas also is in a letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty in its last game this past Tuesday.

Toronto is the No. 2 scoring team in the WNBA. The Tempo average more points per game than the Wings and certainly shouldn't lack motivation in this short revenge spot.

This is too low of a total for an Indiana Fever game. The Fever lead the WNBA in scoring at 93.4 points a game, play at the fastest tempo and rank 12th defensively.  

The Fever just surrendered 106 points to the Sparks, who were playing without their top scorer Kelsey Plum.

Indiana's star center Aliyah Boston missed last night's game against the Sparks, but is slated to play today. Star guard Caitlin Clark did return to the lineup against the Sparks. She will be rested today, which isn't that bad for the Over since Clark's rhythm and shooting were off.

Clark isn't Indiana's main scoring threat. Kelsey Mitchell is. Mitchell is averaging 26.5 points during her last five games. She is the second highest scorer in the league.

Phoenix is a below average defensive team. The Mercury, though, have a couple of star players in Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas.

The Mercury had an off shooting night in their last game, a 77-66 home loss to the Sky. They are eager to redeem themselves. Before losing to Chicago, the Mercury had averaged 96.6 points during their previous three games.

Indiana and Phoenix last met June 24. There were a combined 220 points scored in the Mercury's, 111-109, victory. 

Connecticut pulled one of the biggest upsets of the WNBA season when it beat Minnesota, 90-89, as a 12 1/2-point road underdog two days ago.

The Lynx have the best record in the league at 15-6 while the Sun have the worst mark at 5-16.

Minnesota may have let down against the Sun having played the Liberty and Wings during their previous two games. The Lynx also didn't have star rookie point guard Olivia Miles for the first time due to a right calf injury.

Miles is unlikely to play today. However, I like the Lynx to get their rapid revenge. Minnesota's Cheryl Reeve is one of the best coaches in the league. Not only will the Lynx be extremely motivated to stop their first two-game losing streak of the season, but Reeve should make the proper adjustments.

Connecticut's 35-year-old center Brittney Griner, who is well past her prime, turned back the hands of time by  having her best game of the season by far with 29 points and 10 rebounds. Unsung reserve Kennedy Burke scored 6 points, which is eight points above her average.

I don't see these unlikely occurrences happening a second straight time. The Lynx won't play again for another three days. They will be fully focused and prepared here.  

After a good start, the Chicago Sky are showing once again how poorly coached and inefficiently run they are. The Sky has lost 13 of their last 16 games.

Their sagging morale has gotten even lower with veteran point guard Skylar Diggins demoted from the starting lineup. Diggins is Chicago's second leading scorer and top assists person.

Now the Sky have to play the Mercury in Phoenix. The timing is bad. The Mercury have regrouped to win a season high three straight games. Phoenix is averaging 96.6 points a game during this span.

The Mercury also have a rest advantage having been idle since Thursday. 

It is no surprise the Sparks' defense has been terrible. It has been horrendous all season. But the Storm haven't been playing good defense either. The Storm have allowed an average of 91.8 points per game in their last six games,  discounting a 77-72 loss to the Fire, the fifth-lowest scoring team in the league.

There is some star power in this Dallas-Toronto matchup with Paige Bueckers and Marina Mabrey, two of the six leading scorers in the WNBA. So the perception is this will be a very high scoring game. Toronto does not have good defensive numbers.

But there are a number of key factors that point to an Under.

This is a matinee game. That often is a plus for the Under.

The Wings surrender the fifth fewest points in the league. They have held their last three opponents to an average of 82.3 points a game.

The Tempo's defense should improve as their key frontcourt players - Nyara Sabally, Isabelle Harrison and Temi Fagbenle - are now all healthy. That means better rim protection.

The Wings are a below average 3-point shooting and free throw shooting team. Ball hog Arike Ogunbowale has been cold, making only 10-of-45 (22 percent) of her shots from the floor during the past five games. 

Seattle is stepping down in offensive class playing Phoenix after its last three games were against the Dream, Liberty and Wings.

The Storm rank second to last in scoring and field goal percentage. They are much better defensively giving up the sixth fewest points, ranking third in defensive field goal percentage and first in 3-point defense.

Seattle has compiled these excellent defensive numbers despite not having 6-foot-6 defensive ace Ezi Magbegor. But that changes with this game as Magbegor is expected to make her season debut. She is an elite rim protector finishing second last year in blocked shots.

Phoenix rates 11th offensively and ninth defensively.

There is going to be a rust factor. Each team last played this past Saturday.

The teams have met twice this season with the Mercury winning, 93-73, for a combined 166 points and Phoenix also winning, 72-68, for a combined 140 points. 

Dallas is the home team. But Minnesota is the superior team and is well coached and rested for this matchup.

The Lynx have the best record in the WNBA at 14-4. They last played on Wednesday. This is just their second game in eight days.

The Wings are 11-7 after losing on the road to Las Vegas, 99-84, this past Thursday night.

Minnesota's third in scoring and gives up the second fewest points. The Lynx rank first in defensive field goal percentage along with being first in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.

Dallas' third from the bottom in defensive field goal percentage and defensive 3-point percentage. The Wings just allowed their last two opponents, Las Vegas and Seattle, to shoot above 40% from the 3-point line.

Streak-shooting Arike Ogunbowale is only 6-for-26 in her last two games for Dallas. If Ogunbowale stays cold, likely against this strong defensive opponent, the Wings are in much trouble. 

Much of the star power will be missing when the Sparks take on the Fever Saturday night on national television (CBS) as both LA guard Kelsey Plum and Fever guard Caitlin Clark will be sitting out because of injuries.

Still, expect a high scoring game as these are two of the worst defenses in the WNBA.

The Sparks just scored 97 points on the road against expansion Toronto this past Thursday - and lost by 28 points!

LA ranks last in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Sparks are giving up an average of 93.3 points a game. They remain without their top defensive player and rim protector, injured center Cameron Brink.

Indiana leads the league in scoring at 93.3 points a game and ranks third in field goal percentage. Kelsey Mitchell is the third highest scorer in the WNBA. Rookie guard Raven Johnson has shown promise and is a solid fill-in for Clark.

Like LA, the Fever are deficient defensively. They give up 90.2 points a game, the third-most in the WNBA.

Indiana plays at the fastest tempo in the league. The Sparks play at the fourth fastest pace.

So expect the Sparks to go Over for the 12th time in their last 16 games and for the Fever to go Over for the fifth time in their last six games.

Portland and Chicago are getting together for the third time this season and second time in three days. The Over has cashed in both meetings. No surprise as each team ranks in the bottom five defensively.

I expect that pattern to continue in today's game.

There were 181 points scored in the first meeting won by Chicago, 98-83. The Sky beat the Fire again, 101-78, at home this past Wednesday.

The Sky have scored at least 92 points in four of their last five games. Their scoring is up because Gabriela Jaquez has returned from injury and rookie Sydney Taylor has emerged as a scoring force. Chicago already had good scoring options with Skylar Diggins, Kamilla Cardoso and Azura Stevens.

Chicago produced 56 points in the paint against the Fire on Wednesday. I don't see the Fire having the personnel to crack down on that. Portland, though, should shoot better than the 38% from the floor it did in Wednesday's game. There was a rust factor as the Fire had not played in a week courtesy of the WNBA's idiot schedule maker. 

This total has come down because Kelsey Plum, the WNBA second-leading scorer, is out with a leg injury.

It doesn't matter. These are the league's two worst defenses with strong Over tendencies. The Sparks are second-to-last defensively giving up 91.3 points a game. They rank last in defensive field goal percentage. Toronto is last defensively  surrendering 91.8 points per game. The Tempo rate second to last in defensive field goal percentage.

The Tempo have allowed an average of 101.5 points during their past four games. The Over has cashed in each of Toronto's last six games.

LA has gone Over in 10 of its past 14 games. The Sparks have permitted at least 97 points in three of their last four contests.

The Sparks can exploit Toronto's weak frontcourt with Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby. Rae Burrell was instrumental in the Sparks' upsetting the Liberty, 98-97, in LA's last game this past Sunday. Burrell scored 19 points against New York's fourth ranked defense. Plum did not play well in that game. She shot just 5-of-14 from the floor and was 1-of-7 from beyond the arc. Yet, the Sparks scored 15 points above New York's defensive average. 

The Tempo are the fifth highest scoring team and second best free throw shooting team. LA also is without center Cameron Brink. That is a plus for the Over as Brink is LA's best rim protector and the action slows when she is on the court.

The teams have already played twice this season. Both sailed Over with LA winning 99-95 and losing 106-96.

The expansion Tempo opened as favorites against the Sparks because they are home and LA won't have injured star guard Kelsey Plum.

This is a wrong favorite.

LA has had ample time to game plan and rest for this matchup following an epic, 98-97, victory against New York this past Sunday at home. The Sparks rallied from 17 points down to beat one of the three best teams in the WNBA.

The Sparks upset the Liberty despite a poor performance from Plum, who was 5-of-14 shooting from the field and missed six of seven 3-pointers.

Rae Burrell sparked LA with 19 points off the bench. The Sparks are better than Toronto, which is 1-4 in its last five games. LA still has star power with Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby.

LA's weakness is its 14th ranked defense. That is the second worst in the league. Guess what? Toronto has the worst defense in the league. The Tempo give up the most points per game and also are second to last in defensive field goal percentage.

The Sparks have momentum from that huge victory against the Liberty. They can withstand Plum's absence in the short term especially against this opponent.

These two teams do not like each other. That was evident in the Fever's, 86-77, home win this past Monday. There were six technical fouls called and one player was ejected. 

The Mercury are the biggest underachievers in the league at 5-13 after reaching the WNBA finals last season. But they have a couple of star players - Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper - and they will be highly motivated for this short revenge heated rivalry matchup.

The Fever could be the most high profile team in the league thanks to Caitlin Clark, but nearly all of their victories have been against below .500 teams.

Thomas, a top five player, makes Phoenix dangerous. The Mercury are more than capable when aroused like they were when they played the Aces in Las Vegas and won by 30 points. The Mercury were up for that game because the Aces swept them in the WNBA finals.

They will be up for this game. 

This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) Sunday night WNBA game. It features New York vs. Los Angeles. These are big market teams with high profile stars.

They are going to look to put on a show. And it's not going to be a defensive show as neither team is playing well defensively.

LA gives up 90.9 points a game, which is second highest in the league. The Sparks also rank last in defensive field goal percentage. Their best rim protector and defender, center Cameron Brink, is out with an ankle injury.

But guard Kelsey Plum is expected to play for LA after missing Wednesday's, 99-83, home loss to the Lynx. Plum is having a monster season ranking second in scoring averaging 25 points a game, sixth in assists and tied for third in 3-pointers per game.

The Over has cashed in nine of the Sparks' last 13 games.

The Liberty have a top five player in Breanna Stewart and a top 15 player in Sabrina Ionescu along with maybe the deepest roster in the league.

New York ranks fourth in field goal percentage and 3-point percent. The Liberty also is the top free throw shooting team in the league.  

The Liberty won't lack motivation after getting upset at home, 86-83, by the Mystics Friday night. New York was a double-digit favorite in that game. Washington exceeded its season average by four points.

The Liberty snuck past the Sky, 96-95, in their previous game before losing to the Mystics. The 95 points was 12 points above the Sky's season average.

New York has gone Over in four of its last five games. 

Kudos to the Wings for upsetting the Aces at home two days ago. But Dallas has lost its last two road games falling to the Lynx and expansion Fire. The Wings are on the road here in a letdown spot.

Unlike Dallas, Golden State made the playoffs last season. The Valkyries are good again this season. They have won their last three games with the victory margin being by an average of 10 points.

The Valkyries are the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. They are giving up an average of five fewer points per game than the Wings.

So I will lay this short number with the superior defensive team at home catching their opponent in a major letdown spot.

The Sparks have the worst defense in the WNBA giving up 90.4 points a game. They also are third from the bottom in defensive field goal percentage. Center Cameron Brink is LA's top rim protector and best defensive player. She isn't going to play here against Minnesota because of an ankle injury making the Sparks' defense even worse. 

The Lynx happen to be the top scoring team in the league at 92.6 points per game. They also rank No. 1 in field goal percentage and three-point shooting. Minnesota is in great offensive form averaging 101.3 points per game during its last three contests.

Lynx point guard Olivia Miles isn't just a heavy favorite to win Rookie of the Year. She is a solid MVP candidate.

LA is not going to slow down Minnesota. However, the Sparks have the offensive talent and motivation to keep this close. The Sparks have something to prove after scoring a season-low 58 points in a 78-58 road loss to the Valkyries this past Monday. Brink was injured in that game.

The Sparks are averaging 95 points during their last four home games, excluding a bad performance against the Aces. LA point guard Kelsey Plum also is in the MVP discussion. She ranks second in scoring, fourth in 3-pointers per game and is sixth in assists.

Both teams feature multiple strong secondary scorers and each team plays at an above average tempo. The Sparks should play at even a faster pace with Brink out. 

The defending WNBA champion Aces are 7-1 on the road. That one loss came to Dallas, 95-87, on May 28. Now the Aces want revenge and they certainly are playing well enough to get it.

Las Vegas has won six in a row with the last being a 100-97 home victory over the WNBA-leading Lynx this past Saturday.

Dallas wasn't so fortunate. The Wings held out Paige Bueckers against expansion Portland this past Saturday and lost, 84-83. The Fire had dropped four in a row.

Bueckers is expected to play today. She is a top 10 player, but the Aces have reigning MVP A’ja Wilson. She is playing at her normal high level along with her All-Star teammates Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, who has made a league-tying 15 3-pointers in the last two games. 

The Wings are much improved from last season. But they are not in Las Vegas' class. They also will be playing for the fourth time in seven days.

The Sparks and Mercury share something in common. Both teams have a lot of star power, but not a strong commitment to defense.

LA has Kelsey Plum, the WNBA's No. 2 scorer, Nneka Ogwumike, Dearica Hamby and Ariel Atkins, but rank last defensively. They also are third from the bottom in defensive field goal percentage.

So no surprise that the Sparks have gone Over in 67% of their games this season.

Phoenix has Alyssa Thomas, Kahleah Copper and emerging second-year player Monique Akoa Makani. But the Mercury are second to last in 3-point defense and fourth from the bottom in defensive field goal percentage.

The teams met earlier this season and the Sparks won, 97-88. The combined 185 points went Over with room to spare. 

This is a prime example of a buy-low, sell-high spot backing the home underdog Sky against Atlanta.

The Dream are 7-3, which is the best winning percentage in the Eastern Conference. They just destroyed Washington at home, 109-77, this past Saturday and return home to host New York in a much bigger game on Thursday. The Liberty trail Atlanta by one game.

Not only is this a look-ahead spot for the Dream, but they have a losing ATS mark on the road. Atlanta averages nine fewer points and gives up four more points as a visitor this season.

The Sky should improve as they are getting healthier. Azurá Stevens and Gabriela Jaquez are both back from injuries. They are two of Chicago's best five players. Kamilla Cardoso is emerging as one of the best low post players in the league.

Chicago ranks in the top five in several defensive categories, including field goal percentage, rebounds and blocked shots.

Note, too, that home teams have covered 68 percent of the time this month going 15-7. 

In handicapping this game to go Over the total it is important to note that these are two bad defensive teams and who they have played recently.

Indiana is third in the league in scoring at 89.2 points a game. They have two dynamic scorers in Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark along with one of the best low post players in Aliyah Boston.

The Fever have played four exceptionally strong defensive teams during their past five games. They went up against the Dream (No. 2 defensively), Valkyries twice (No. 3 defensively) and Liberty (No. 5 defensively).

Washington ranks 13th defensively surrendering 88 points a game.

Not only is this a huge step down in defensive class for the Fever, but they have revenge motivation for a 104-102 overtime home loss to the Mystics on May 15. There were 178 points scored during regulation in that game. Indiana produced 102 points despite shooting only 38% from the floor and 68% from the foul line.

The Mystics can produce a high total against a bad defensive team. They played bad defensive teams in two of their last three games scoring 90 points against the Sky and 87 against the Sparks.

The Fever rank fourth from the bottom defensively. The Mystics have two excellent second-year players in Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen. Center Shakira Austin is having a nice season, too. The three of them average a combined 50 points a game.

Both teams like to run so the pace should be brisk. 

Toronto has a better record than Chicago. The Tempo are home and with a situational edge having last played this past Wednesday. The Sky, 1-5 in their last six games, defeated Connecticut at home, 85-80, this past Friday night.

The Tempo and Sky already have played this season. Chicago was a 4 1/2-point home favorite and lost, 111-104, to Toronto on May 27.

Toronto is the healthier and the better coached of the two teams led by Sandy Brondello, who coached the Liberty to the WNBA championship two seasons ago. Chicago is coached by Tyler Marsh, who is in the argument for being the worst coach in the league.

Despite being an expansion team, the Tempo have one of the best backcourts in the league with veterans Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes. They are averaging a combined 36.1 points a game. Toronto also has one of the more improved players in the league in Nyara Sabally.

The Tempo is much better than your average expansion team. They have far more pluses than minuses in this matchup so asking them to just simply win the game is not asking too much.

Connecticut has the required rebounding and a secret weapon to stay within this large point spread against Atlanta.

The Dream are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the WNBA. Angel Reese is tied for first in rebounds per game. The Sun, however, lead the league in total rebounds and steals.

Brittney Griner is back healthy for Connecticut and can neutralize the Dream on the boards, while providing an inside scoring presence.

The Sun just activated Leïla Lacan, a French star who was selected as finals MVP in the La Boulangère Wonderligue. That is the top tier women's professional league in France. Lacan greatly upgrades Connecticut's backcourt.

I don't believe the oddsmaker has accounted enough for Griner and Lacan so I find value backing the underdog.

Dallas is a much improved team. Seattle is down from last season and has a couple of key injuries. So I understand this lopsided point spread. I just don't agree with it.

The Storm are 2-2 SU and ATS in their last four games. They are fourth ranked in fewest points allowed and in defensive field goal percentage. They rank fifth in 3-point defense. They have better defensive statistics than Dallas. 

Seattle, though, remains without its two best frontcourt players, Ezi Magbegor and Dominique Malonga. Both are hurt.

The Wings, however, are guard oriented. Their offense is centered around the mid-range shooting of Paige Bueckers, erratic Arike Ogunbowale, who is shooting 33% from the floor, and rookie Azzi Fudd.

So this isn't a bad opponent for Seattle to be facing match-up wise. The situation is not bad either for the Storm. The Wings are fat and happy following upset victories against the Aces at home and Liberty on the road. There could be a rust element, too, as the Wings haven't played in four days.

This also is the largest the Wings have been favored by all season. They've only been chalk twice with the highest being by 4 1/2 points. 

I have a great deal of respect for Golden State. But I want the Aces going for me in this spot following consecutive losses.

Both teams played this past Thursday. The Valkyries have to be feeling pretty good after they nipped the Fever, 90-88, at home.

Not so with Las Vegas. The Aces lost to the Wings, 95-87, on the road. Dallas shot exceptionally well - 10-of-22 from 3- point range and made 86 percent of its free throws. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammond was highly displeased.

It has been 51 games since the defending champion Aces have lost three in a row.

The Aces are No. 2 in scoring and field goal percentage. They average nearly five more points per game than the Valkyries.

Golden State has excellent depth. But the Aces have the star power led by league MVP A’ja Wilson. They also are going to have the motivation.

New York was the highest scoring team in the WNBA through the first four games. But the Liberty are averaging only 76 points during their past four games.

The Under has cashed in each of New York's last four games. I expect that trend to continue in this rematch against Phoenix. The Liberty defeated the Mercury, 84-74, at home this past Wednesday.

The Liberty accomplished this by playing their best defense of the season during the second half holding Phoenix to 31 points during the final two quarters.

Satou Sabally has logged fewer than four minutes during the last two games because of illness, but is expected to play for New York. However, the Liberty still will be without star guard Sabrina Ionescu because of back soreness.

Phoenix should increase its defensive intensity in a short revenge spot and saddled with a frustrating four game losing streak. The Mercury have gone Under in their last two games. They can take advantage of a New York offense that has yet to establish a true identity.

The Aces are 4-0 on the road this season with their average victory margin being 16 points in their away games. The Aces travel to Dallas here having had a full four days to reflect on a 101-95 home loss to the Sparks this past Saturday.

Only once before had Las Vegas lost. The Aces followed that up with a 27-point road win against the Sparks.

Dallas enters this matchup in a giddy frame of mind taking advantage of the early struggles of the Liberty to post an impressive 91-76 win this past Sunday. That concluded a three-game road trip for the Wings.

The Wings are much improved from going 10-34 overall and 4-20 in the Western Conference a season ago. They are  a legitimate playoff contender now. But they are not in the Aces' class and this spot does not set up well for Dallas.

Las Vegas is the second highest scoring team in the WNBA and should be all business after having a bad defensive home game.

Rebuilding Connecticut has the worst record in the WNBA at 1-7. But the Sun should not be this big of underdogs to the expansion Fire, especially given the circumstances.

Yes, Portland is off to a surprising 4-3 start. The Fire just upset the Liberty as a double-digit road underdog this past Monday. Now they have to make the cross country trip home from New York. This will be their third different time zone in their last four games. Their last three games have been on the road.

So it's not an ideal situation for Portland, which also is in a letdown spot.

Connecticut has been on the West Coast for the past week. The Sun player's body clocks are attuned to West Coast time.

Portland does not possess outstanding talent. It is mediocre at best. The only time the Fire have been favored this season was against the Sun, laying 3 1/2 points at home on May 18. The Fire failed to cover in winning, 83-82.

The Sun could have pulled the upset if they would have shot better from the free throw line. They made only 11 of 20 free throws for 55 percent. Portland made 20 of 26 free throws for 77 percent.

Connecticut outrebounded Portland and should do it again even with Brittney Griner ruled out. Sun center Olivia Nelson-Ododa is back from injury and Connecticut has two good forwards in Aneesah Morrow and Aaliyah Edwards.

This is an unfamiliar and not a good role for the overachieving Fire. It would not surprise me if Connecticut won straight-up.

Preseason future book odds had the Liberty favorites to win the WNBA championship this season, a feat they accomplished two years ago.

But minus their star guard Sabrina Ionescu, New York has gotten off to a disappointing 3-2 beginning.

Now, though, Ionescu is set to make her season debut against the Wings today at home. New York has four players that are among the 20 best in the league. The Liberty got one of them, Satou Sabally, back in their last game. That was a humiliating, 87-70, home loss to the Valkyries this past Thursday.

The Liberty will have all four of their best players with Ionescu joining Sabally, superstar Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones.

Dallas has promising young talent. The Wings are going to be much better than their 10-34, tied for league-worst record, of last season. But they are two, if not three levels, behind the Liberty.

New York is averaging a WNBA-best 94 points a game despite being held to 70 points by Golden State, the league's top defensive team.

The situation lays out well, too, for the Liberty here. This is only their second game in 10 days. The Wings are playing their third road game in four days and fourth game in seven days. They just lost, 86-69, to the Dream in Atlanta this past Friday. The Dream are not as good as the Liberty.

Minnesota had the best regular season record in the WNBA at 34-10 last year. Chicago tied for the worst record at 10-34.

The Lynx are down from last season while the Sky have improved their roster.

But the gap isn't enough for the Sky to upset the Lynx especially given the circumstances.

The Lynx have short revenge. They lost, 86-79, as 5 1/2-point home favorites to the Sky this past Sunday.

That was a very costly win for Chicago as its leading scorer, Rickea Jackson, suffered a season-ending ACL injury during that game. The Sky have played once since then. They lost to the Wings, 99-89, at home this past Wednesday.

Minnesota buried Toronto, 100-72, at home this past Thursday. The Lynx needed that win. They don't have injured Napheesa Collier, one of the five best players in the league, but they still have a number of good players, including Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, Natasha Howard and Rookie of the Year favorite point guard Olivia Miles.

The Lynx also are much better coached than the Sky. I don't see Minnesota losing twice within a week to Chicago.

In the bizarre world of scheduling WNBA games, Atlanta finds itself playing for the first time since Sunday hosting Dallas.

The Wings find themselves in a massive situational disadvantage. This is the third time they will be in action in the last five days. Dallas defeated the Sky, 99-89, in Chicago this past Wednesday.

Dallas and Atlanta have already met. The Dream defeated the Wings, 77-72, as 1 1/2-point road favorites 10 days ago.

Atlanta is the superior team and the spot sets up well for the Dream. The 2-1 Dream are off their first loss of the season, 85-84, at home to the defending champion Aces. Las Vegas pulled the game out with 3.6 seconds to play on a fadeaway jumper by Chelsea Gray.

The Dream are anxious to play again having had ample rest and preparation time. They have the league's third highest scorer in Allisha Gray, who scores 25 points a game, and will get back their second best scorer, Rhyne Howard. She missed the Las Vegas game because of a concussion. But she is cleared to play in this game. 

Expansion team Toronto is off to a surprising 3-2 start. The Tempo have been fortunate to play the Sparks in two of their last three games. The other game during this span was against the Mercury. LA is the worst defensive team in the WNBA. Phoenix is below average, too, defensively.

But now the Tempo draw the well coached Lynx, a team that has been idle since Sunday while Toronto is playing for the third time in five days - all of the games away from home - and in action for the fifth time in nine days.

It is a clear situational edge for Minnesota and I expect the veteran Lynx to take full advantage with a blowout victory.

Toronto is being carried by its starting backcourt of Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey. They are averaging more than a combined 46 points a game. They are good players, but that combined average is unsustainable especially when they start taking on better defensive opponents such as the Lynx.

Minnesota had the best record in the WNBA at 34-10 last year. The Lynx aren't getting much respect this season because superstar Napheesa Collier is out with an injury.

However, the Lynx still have many good players, including Courtney Williams, Kayla McBride, Natasha Howard and  point guard Olivia Miles, who has looked outstanding and is the favorite to win Rookie of the Year honors.

Many of these early season WNBA games have been higher scoring than expected. One such matchup was New York-Portland on Tuesday. The expansion Fire stunned New York, 98-96, winning as an 11 1/2-point home underdog.

The total went Over by 20 1/2 points. So the oddsmaker has adjusted. The Liberty now have their highest total of their four games for this rematch.

Of course the prideful Liberty, WNBA champions two seasons ago and the team with the shortest future book odds of winning the title this season, are going to be highly motivated in this short revenge spot.

But I no longer trust the Liberty to cover a double-digit road point spread missing Sabrina Ionescu (foot) and  Satou Sabally (cyst). Those two are among the 25 best players in the WNBA. Ionescu easily ranks in the top 15.  She's one of the best 3-point shooters in the league.

Instead I'm going Under. I don't see any way these teams, now familiar with each other, shoot the way they did on Tuesday.

The Liberty hit 53 percent of their shots from the floor. The Fire connected on 50 percent of their field goals. The two teams combined to make an unbelievable 32 of 33 free throws.

Despite their fine showing against the Liberty in their first game of the season, the Fire doesn't figure to be good on offense. They don't have a lot of scoring talent and are in the process of learning a complicated offense.

This one goes Under. 

Aside from a strong starting backcourt of Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes, expansion Toronto is not very good. The Tempo could manage only 65 points against the Mystics in their lone game. Their offense was stagnant and their defense isn't very good either.

If Mabrey has an off game, the Tempo are vulnerable to a blowout loss. Toronto should not be favored against Seattle.

The Storm are in rebuilding mode, but have enough young talent and veterans to win this game straight up. They hold a big frontcourt edge with emerging star Dominique Malonga.

Toronto has a small, soft frontcourt that Malonga can exploit especially if Temi Fagbenle doesn't play because of a shoulder injury. 

I want the WNBA champion Aces going for me following their embarrassing, 99-66, season-opening home loss to the Mercury on Saturday.

Distracted by the pregame ring ceremony celebrating their title, the Aces were flat. It was a huge revenge spot for the Mercury, who were swept by the Aces in the WNBA finals. Phoenix played well and with more desire than Las Vegas. 

Expect the Aces to play much better today and with far more intensity. Las Vegas closed out last season winning its final 16 regular season games. They should be even better this season with the addition of talented guard Chennedy Carter joining league MVP A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd.

The Sparks had a losing record last season and did not make the playoffs. They are better this year, but still are several tiers below the Aces.

It is LA's season opener. The Aces are in an advantageous situation having already played a game. Fatigue is not a factor for the Aces playing without rest since it is just the second game of the season and Wilson, Gray and Young all were rested the entire fourth quarter against Phoenix. 

This is expansion Portland's first game and it's at home. Certainly the Fire will be motivated to play well.

Unfortunately for the Fire, they have the least talented roster in the WNBA with no stars, nor dangerous scoring threats.

Portland coach Alex Sarama runs a complicated offense. It is going to take a while for his players to get up to speed operating his system.

Chicago had the worst defense in the WNBA last season. That could be why this total is so high. However, the Sky have a much different team than last season. 

It is going to take a while for Chicago to jell, too, and get in rhythm offensively. 

Connecticut and New York closed out their limited preseason this past Sunday. New York won, 79-67.

While I do think there will be a few more combined points than the 146 produced in that game, it won't be enough to get this game Over the total.

The Liberty closed last season going 10-1 to the Under. They ranked first in 3-point defense and were third in defensive field goal percentage.

The Sun are in rebuilding mode. They have a lot of young players with the exception of plodding 35-year-old center Brittney Griner, who is good for the Under because she's a half court player and the Sun will slow tempo to accommodate her.

New York's star point guard Sabrina Ionescu is out with an ankle injury. That likely means more minutes for Rebekah Gardner and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, both of whom are more defensive oriented and far less scoring threats.

Prop Bet:
A'Ja Wilson to win Most Valuable Player in the plus $2.00-$2.70 range

Wilson is the reigning MVP of the WNBA. She is the best player in the league and her team, the Aces, have a solid chance of repeating as champions.

Wilson is not only dominant on both ends of the court, but her strongest competition probably won't play until sometime in June. That's Napheesa Collier of Minnesota. She's sidelined with a leg injury. 

The other top candidates - Caitlin Clark of Indiana, Breanna Stewart of New York, Alyssa Thomas of Phoenix and Paige Bueckers of Dallas - all have something going against them.

Clark has to prove she is not injury prone after playing in only 13 games last season. Stewart is a little past her prime and plays on a star-studded Liberty team, which will keep her from putting up elite statistics.  Thomas is a triple/double machine, but plays for a team that may not make the playoffs. Bueckers already is a great player, but is only in her second season and playing for a rebuilding team. Her MVP time isn't here yet. 

The Aces held off the Mercury, 89-86, this past Friday night at home. But it took reserve guard Dana Evans' best game of the season for that to happen. Evans scored 21 points, hitting 8-of-13 shots from the floor and five-of-six 3-pointers.

Jewell Loyd also had a big game off the bench for Las Vegas with 19 points. The Aces' bench players outscored Phoenix's reserves, 41-16.

I don't see that happening again. Phoenix has a strong bench, Evans isn't that good and Lloyd has been a major disappointment.

Phoenix had a chance to take the lead with 24.6 seconds left, but Alyssa Thomas missed two free throws.

The Mercury can match Las Vegas' three stars with their own three stars - Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally.

Aces' superstar A'ja Wilson looked tired missing jumpers she normally hits. Statistically, the game was even with Phoenix outrebounding Las Vegas.

Game 2 should be just as tight, so I'll take the points.

The Aces' Becky Hammon and the Mercury's Nate Tibbetts are the two best coaches in the league. So not a huge surprise that their teams are meeting in the WNBA championship series.

Phoenix last played this past Sunday. Las Vegas finished off Indiana at home this past Tuesday. So both coaches have had ample time to devise a strong defensive game plan.

I anticipate a feeling-out process in this opening series game with high intensity and shooting rust factoring in.

The Mercury are a top-five defensive team. They have given up an average of 74.7 points in their seven playoff games. Minnesota had a lot of problems handling Phoenix's physical style.

Las Vegas held Phoenix to an average of 75.2 points per game during its four regular season games.

The Aces ranked second in three-point defense. The Mercury like to work their way inside. They are not a huge perimeter shooting team. Las Vegas center A'ja Wilson is the best defensive player in the league and the top shot blocker. So Phoenix will not get easy baskets.

Home court is strong enough in playoff basketball without any help from the officiating. But in the WNBA playoff home court really means something given how bad the league officiating is.

Minnesota was homered in the title game last year against the Liberty in New York and the Lynx were homered in Game 3 on the road against Phoenix this year.

Las Vegas knows that feeling. The Aces were homered in Game 4 at Indiana this past Sunday losing, 90-83. The Fever shot 34 free throws. The Aces only took 11 free throws.

But now the Aces get the Fever at home. Las Vegas is 17-5 at home. The Aces buried Indiana, 90-68, at home in Game 2 of this series.

A'ja Wilson is the best player in the league. No way does Indiana center Aliyah Boston get the better of Wilson.

The Aces are a much better free throw shooting team than Indiana. The Aces also are healthy, something the Fever are not. The Fever have shown a lot of spunk and guts to go this far in the playoffs despite missing multiple rotation players, including star guard Caitlin Clark.

But I see the Fever running out of gas here. Las Vegas has too strong of a track record at home and are the superior team. It's just a bonus if the Aces get added help by the officiating, which has been blatantly slanted toward home teams in the playoffs.

No Napheesa Collier, no chance for Minnesota. And I doubt Collier plays after suffering shoulder and leg injuries in the Lynx's Game  3 loss to the Mercury.

The Lynx and their coach, Cheryl Reeve, are on tilt following Friday's road loss to Phoenix. Reeve went crazy at the end of the game due to the horrendous officiating.

Minnesota really lost this series when it blew a 20-point lead at home in Game 2. The Lynx haven't recovered.

Phoenix's confidence level is sky high, the Mercury are home and their three stars are playing well.

After getting upset in Game One, the Aces got back on track routing Indiana, 90-68, in Game 2 this past Tuesday.

Just like they did against Atlanta, the Fever got physical. There were 41 fouls called on Tuesday.

This game is expected to be highly physical, too. The Aces, besides being the superior team, are healthy while the Fever are missing several key players.

Las Vegas also is the better free throw shooting team ranking No. 2 in the league. Indiana rates 9th in free throw percentage. That's important in a game in which plenty of free throws are likely to be taken.

The WNBA is wide open this season. Minnesota had the best regular season record and deserves to be favored.

But the Lynx aren't that dominant where they should be in this high of a point spread range.

Phoenix eliminated the defending champion Liberty. The three best players in the WNBA are A'ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier and Phoenix's Alyssa Thomas, who is the Oscar Robertson of the league averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists.

The Mercury took out the Liberty this past Friday night. They then had to play Game One at Minnesota this past Sunday. Despite the scheduling and disadvantage, Phoenix had a 7-point halftime lead and the game was tied at the end of the third quarter.

Phoenix ran out of gas and lost, 82-69.

That shouldn't be the case in Tuesday's Game 2. I also don't expect the Mercury to miss 20 of 23 of their 3-pointers like they did in Game 1.

Note, too, that the Lynx are missing DiJonai Carrington, one of the best defenders in the league and a key rotational part for Minnesota.

Phoenix has its big three healthy - Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper. That makes the Mercury extremely dangerous.

Phoenix is good enough to beat New York at home especially with Liberty superstar Breanna Stewart not nearly 100% because of a knee injury.

The Mercury have their own stars and they came to play in Game 2 at New York with the Mercury winning by 26 points. Phoenix held the Liberty to 60 points, New York's second-lowest total of the season and worst home loss in playoff history.

That was a powerful statement. Phoenix has the stars - Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper - and the confidence now to take down the defending champions.

Indiana put all of its efforts into winning Game 2 at home this past Tuesday. That was the Fever's first playoff win in 10 years.
 
I don't see the injury-ravaged Fever staying within this point spread against Atlanta on the road. Indiana has six players out. 

The Dream beat the Fever by 12 points at home in Game 1 of this playoff series. They are the healthier and superior team.

Atlanta is the best rebounding team in the WNBA and also has the third-best defense. Indiana can't match that.

The Valkyries have proven resilient all season becoming the first WNBA expansion team to make the playoffs. They get tremendous fan support at Chase Center, where their 18,064 arena is sold out.

This should be a tight defensive game with every point mattering. Golden State is eliminated with a loss.

This is what Minnesota superstar Napheesa Collier said about today's matchup: “No one on this team thinks that this is going to be an easy game, by any means. We know it’s going to be a fight. They all work really, really hard. That’s been a staple of their team this entire season, and their home crowd is really great. It’s going to be a really tough game, and we have to make sure that we come with our A-game, especially on defense.”  

The Valkyries should get a better break from the officials than they did in Game 1 at Minnesota being home now and after their coach, Natalie Nakase, complained about the officiating.

Note, too, that Golden state had the second-best point spread mark in the league during the regular season covering 64 percent of their games.

Fever coach Stephanie White promises her team will play better on Tuesday after Indiana lost, 80-68, on the road to Atlanta this past Sunday. A loss eliminates Indiana because this is a best-of-three series.

I am taking White at her word.

The Fever have shown resilience all season. They made the postseason despite having five players lost for the season, including superstar Caitlin Clark.

Atlanta has had a tremendous season. But this is the first time Indiana is hosting a playoff game since 2016. The Fever still have several stars including Kelsey Mitchell. So I'm going to back the Fever taking points in this must-win home spot.

After going 28-5 in their first 33 games and clinching the No. 1 playoff seed, the Lynx are just 5-5 in their last 10 games. They do not have any incentive and they do not have any motivation here.

Minnesota rested superstar Napheesa Collier in its last game not wanting to take a chance on her reinjuring her ankle. There is no reason for the Lynx to play Collier here.

Golden State, however, has incentive. A victory enables the Valkyries to finish in sixth place and meet either the Aces or Dream instead of the Lynx in the first round of the playoffs.

The Valkyries have the second-best point spread record in the WNBA at 27-15-1 (64 percent).

Given their talent, the Storm may be the most underachieving team in the WNBA this season. Seattle needs to win this game in order to clinch the final playoff spot.

Because of that we have an inflated point spread.

The Valkyries are an expansion team, but they haven't played like one. They are in the playoffs and have a chance to be the sixth-seed. Golden State has played hard all season. I don't see that changing here.

Golden State had won five in a row before losing to the league's best team, Minnesota, in its last game this past Saturday. The Valkyries outscored the Lynx in three of the four quarters.

 Seattle has stars in 10-time All-Star Nneka Ogwumike along with Skylar Diggins, Gabby Williams and Ezi Magbegor. Yet the Valkyries have the better record.

Golden State's 25-15-1 (63%) point spread mark is the second-best ATS record in the WNBA. The Storm have the second-worst point spread record in the league at 17-26 (40%) ATS.

LA is a huge favorite here. But by the time this game tips off, the Sparks may have little incentive to play. That's because their slim playoff hopes could end if Indiana beats Washington as expected. That game tips off three hours before the Spark game. So LA's players will know the result. Indiana was favored by six points on the overnight line. Washington has lost eight in a row.
 
The Sparks are on fumes done in by a brutal, late-season schedule. This is their fifth game in eight days. The Sparks just lost to the Dream this past Wednesday and Friday failing to step up in either game. Talent hasn't equaled results for the Sparks.

Dallas has been on West Coast time the past few days. They last played on Thursday against Golden State, easily covering against the playoff-bound Valkyries.

The Sparks didn't get into LA from their 5-hour flight home from Atlanta until Saturday. This is a Sunday afternoon game against a well-rested opponent that will be playing loose with no pressure.

The line is so high because Dallas has the worst record in the WNBA. But the Wings also will have the best player on the court in Paige Bueckers. She has been tremendous in the last two games against the Sparks averaging 36.5 points. The Sparks won those two games by just one point each with the last occurring on August 20th. It took a buzzer beater for the Sparks to nip the Wings, 81-80, as eight- point home favorites.

Look for another close game here. 

The Valkyries accomplished what no expansion team in WNBA history has ever done. They earned a playoff spot by beating Dallas, 84-80, two days ago.

Golden State doesn't have stars. The Valkyries earned their playoff berth by playing hard. But this is a monster let-down spot for them having achieved their playoff goal many didn't think they could reach.

Minnesota is the best team in the WNBA. The Lynx already have clinched the top seed for the postseason. Yet I see Minnesota being the more motivated team here following a 97-87 road loss to the Aces this past Thursday.

Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve was not happy with her team's defensive play in that defeat. Reeve doesn't believe in taking games off. The Lynx have won each of their last 13 times after losing as a favorite. I trust her to have the Lynx motivated and ready to catch the Valkyries in a flat spot.

Golden State is missing several players, including key rotational player, Tiffany Hayes.

Minnesota averages 9 points more per game than Golden State. The Lynx are the healthier team and the superior team. I trust them to cover this number.

Phoenix has gone Under in each of its last five games. Indiana scored only 63 points in its last game.

The oddsmaker has reacted by setting a total too low with this matchup. Early marketplace activity has been to the Over and I agree. Given the star power and that both teams like to push pace, I see this one going Over.

The Fever have scored at least 84 points in five of their last seven games. They remain without superstar Caitlin Clark, but Kelsey Mitchell has been scoring and shooting better than Clark. She's a legitimate star as is low post player, Aliyah Boston.

Indiana also is without Sophie Cunningham. But she is more about grit and glamour than scoring. The Fever are also dropping down in defensive class after playing at the Valkyries in their last game.

Phoenix is healthy and dangerous. Satou Sabally, Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper are all elite players and scorers. The Mercury, despite their run of Unders, is averaging 84 points per game during their last four games. 

Sparked by the return of offensive rebounding machine Angel Reese, the Sky are averaging 87.6 points in the three games Reece has returned from injury.

Chicago, though, remains the third-worst defensive team in the league. The Sky are allowing 90.7 pts during their last four games, all of which have gone Over.

Las Vegas is the hottest team in the WNBA with 10 straight victories. The Aces are going to get plenty of points here. Superstar A'ja Wilson is in peak form. She has scored at least 30 points in four of her last five games.

The Aces also are getting outstanding scoring production from reserve guard, Dana Evans. She is averaging 19 points in the last two games and won't lack motivation going against her former team.

Connecticut upset Washington as 6-point road 'dogs two days ago. However, that doesn't mean the Sun are a better team than the Mystics. They most certainly are not.

I strongly like Washington to get revenge.

The Mystics have won nine more games than Connecticut. The Sun are last in the WNBA in scoring and last in defensive field goal percentage. They are short-handed in the backcourt with Jacy Sheldon out and Brittney Sykes traded.

Washington is far more talented than Connecticut having Shakira Austin along with star rookies, Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen.

Expect playoff intensity and tremendous defense in this matchup. The Valkyries are aiming to be the first WNBA expansion team to make the postseason in their first year. They are the worst shooting team in the league, yet are 18-15 because of their defense.

Golden State ranks either first or second in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Valkyries are giving up an average 67.4 points per game during their last five games.

Phoenix has more star power than Golden State, but has a below average offense. The Mercury, though, have really come on defensively giving up an average of 72.5 points in their last six games. During the last 10 games, the Mercury ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in defensive efficiency. On the season, the Mercury give up the third-fewest points per game.

The teams meet again on Friday in Phoenix. So they want to establish their defensive intensity in this matchup.

Golden State plays extremely slow, especially at home. The Under has cashed in nine of the Valkyries' past 10 home games including the last seven.

The Sparks have lost just one fewer game than the Mystics, but I find them to be the far superior team especially given Washington's injuries.

So does the oddsmaker making LA a road favorite.

The Sparks have won six of their last seven away games. They also are 2-0 versus the Mystics this season with victories of 19 and 7 points.

Washington may even be in a little letdown spot after upsetting Indiana at home this past Friday.

The Mystics are thin in the frontcourt with center Shakira Austin out with a leg injury and in the back court with Jacy Sheldon sidelined with an ankle injury and with star point guard Brittney Sykes traded. It sets up for a big game for Sparks point guard Kelsey Plum.

Phoenix should be ready for this home game. The Mercury previously played last Sunday when they lost in bad fashion to Atlanta. Previously, though, the Mercury had won and covered three in a row. They have had four full days of practice and game-planning for this matchup.

The Mercury are the No. 2 defensive team in the WNBA allowing an average of 79.5 points a game. They have been playing especially stingy defense lately holding their last four foes  to an average of 66.7 points per game.

High-scoring Satou Sabally has been looking better since missing games because of personal reasons. Veteran and key role player DeWanna Bonner is fitting in much better with Phoenix than she did with the Fever.

The Aces carry a far higher fatigue rating than Phoenix. This marks their fifth game in 10 days. It is also only their second road game this month.

Las Vegas is a below average defensive team.

This is one of the Aces' biggest games  of the year. They should be up to the challenge.

Las Vegas has its confidence up having won four in a row. A'ja Wilson is playing at a high level, which is MVP-caliber. She is averaging 29.3 points, 13 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.3 steals per game since Aug. 3.

The Liberty played a fast-paced game against the Sparks last night. So they have a fatigue issue as this also is their fourth game in six days. New York is without its best player, Breanna Stewart, too.

The combination of revenge and superior defense puts me on the side of the Liberty.

One of the most gut-wrenching losses for the Liberty came at home to the Sparks as an 11-point favorite on July 26th when they lost, 101-99, on a basket at the buzzer.

New York ranks in the top-three in defensive field goal percentage and three-point defense. LA ranks last in the league defensively giving up 87.8 points per game.

There isn't a hotter point spread and scoring team than Los Angeles. The Sparks have won eight of their last nine games and are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. They have reached triple-digit scoring in five of their last six games.

The Sparks are healthy, too. The Valkyries can't make that claim. They are without several rotation players,  including their top player Kayla Thornton.

The expansion Valkyries have overachieved all season. But could be hitting a wall this late in the season having lost consecutive games to the struggling Aces.

Golden State cannot match LA's star power of Kelsey Plum and Dearica Hamby. But the Sparks also are getting so much more from other players. Rickea Jackson has eclipsed 20 points in six of the last eight games. Julie Allemand had a triple-double in LA's last game. Back from injury, center Cameron Brink has combined for 10 blocks in her last three games.

The Sparks are peaking while the Valkyries are falling back. LA averages more than eight points per game than Golden State.

Effort and good coaching can only go so far for the Valkyries. They are running into a hot team that has far more talent than they do. No way the Sparks take the Valkyries lightly either with both teams tied for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

Minnesota is coming off a  most impressive, 111-58, road victory against Las Vegas this past Saturday. However, the Lynx foolishly lost their superstar center, Napheesa Collier, in the blowout while being ahead by 43 points. Collier suffered a leg injury that is going to keep her out at least two weeks.

That is really going to hurt the Lynx here on the road against Seattle. The Storm defeated Minnesota, 94-84, at home on June 11th. Collier had a big game in that loss with 25 points, nine rebounds and five assists.

Now take out Collier and Seattle is the better defensive team. Collier was the favorite to win MVP honors based both on her outstanding offense and defense.

The Storm already are 0-2 this month at home losing by a combined six points to Indiana and Los Angeles in overtime. Seattle has covered 82 percent the last 22 times when favored at home in a division game following consecutive losses.

Connecticut has the worst record in the WNBA. But the Sun are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. Connecticut is a good value once again here taking an inflated point spread.

During the last 3 weeks, Phoenix has regressed significantly. The Mercury are 2-5 SU and ATS in their last seven games. They have surrendered 89 or more points in four of their past six games.

Phoenix also has the distraction of playing at home for the first time since July 23rd. This is a kill spot for the Mercury, but they are not playing nearly well enough to cover such a large number.

Connecticut is not good, but the Sun have proven feisty. They are not going to roll over especially playing against long-time former teammate Alyssa Thomas. There will be some pride at stake here.

The defending WNBA champion Liberty have been pointing to this game for more than a week after they were upset as 8-point road favorites by the Wings on national TV eight days ago.

The motivation and setting is ripe for the Liberty to get their revenge in double-digit fashion.

The rebuilding Wings just traded away DiJonai Carrington, one of their few good defensive players. Even with Carrington, Dallas was a bottom-three defensive team.

The Wings rank second to last in 3-point defense. That bodes well for long range shooting star Sabrina Ionescu, who has been hot.

New York remains without superstar Brianna Stewart, but did shore up its frontcourt, signing veteran Emma Meesseman to go with star center Jonquel Jones.

Dallas has played its last four games at home. The Wings are 1-4 straight up and against the spread in their last five road games.

Aces coach Becky Hammon has made starting lineup changes that have upgraded the defense at the expense of offense. This was evident in the Aces' last game, an 89-74 road win against the high-scoring but defensively-weak Sparks this past Tuesday. That total went Under by 12 1/2 points.

Las Vegas has given up 80 or fewer points in four of its last five games. The Aces' defensive intensity should be way up. They are playing at home in a double revenge spot for two blowout road losses to Minnesota.

The Lynx are the top defensive team in the WNBA. They ranked first in scoring defense and second in both defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They've held the Aces to an average of 70 points in two games this season.

Every point should matter here as this figures to be a very low-scoring game as the total indicates.

Chicago has lost six in a row. However, this is a step down in class for the Sky as five of those losses were against above average teams - Minnesota twice, Indiana, Seattle and Atlanta. Those were all above average teams with Minnesota being probably the best team in the WNBA right now.

Kayla Thornton is the Valkyries' best player. She is out for the season, though. Golden State also may be without Monica Billings and Cecilia Zandalasini. Neither played last night. This marks the Valkyries' fourth road game in six days and second in two nights. They are fat and happy with consecutive upset victories against Washington and Atlanta.

With a short rotation, a heavy fatigue rating and playing on the road against what should be a motivated Sky team, this is an extremely bad spot for the Valkyries. So I will take the points with the Sky.

The overachieving Valkyries face a tough road challenge here going against the Mystics, who are treating this as their game of the year. The winner of this game holds the eighth and final playoff spot.

After a slow start, Washington is 5-3 in its last eight games. The Mystics are 9-5 at home. The Valkyries are 4-9 away from home.

The league has caught up to the Valkyries. They are not going to catch any teams by surprise anymore. It's especially hard for the Valkyries without their best player, All-Star Kayla Thornton. Rotation player Monique Billings isn't likely to play either due to an ankle injury.

Take out Thornton and the Mystics have the four best players on the court with All-Stars Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen and Brittany Sykes along with Shakira Austin.

Atlanta is 15-11, a much more sound team than 8-19 Dallas. The Dream rank in the top-five both offensively and defensively. The Wings are inconsistent on offense and a bottom-three defensive team.

Given the quality of the two teams and the scheduling dynamics, I find this point spread to be too low. So I am backing Atlanta.

The Dream nearly came back from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit last night before losing at home to Golden State. Atlanta was an 8 1/2-point favorite against the Valkyries.

The prideful Dream does not want to lose consecutive games to these opponents, who are well below their caliber.

The Wings did not play last night. However, they nevertheless carry a heavy fatigue ranking. This is Dallas's fourth game in six days and third game in four days. It's also a letdown spot for the Wings.

Dallas upset the defending champion Liberty two days ago at home. That was a great victory for the Wings, their best of the season. It has to be noted, though, that New York did not have superstar Breanna Stewart in that game.

The Sparks have been the hottest scoring team in the WNBA lately. LA is averaging 97.2 points in its last five games. The Over has cashed in each of LA's last seven games.

But the dynamics are going to change for the Sparks starting with this game. It's a big reason why I'm on the Under.

Cameron Brink, the 2024 No.2 overall pick who tore her ACL and meniscus last season, is set to make her season debut for the Sparks. Brink is a top-notch defender and shot-blocker. But on the offensive end there is going to be an adjustment. The Sparks will have to slow the tempo down when Brink, a post-up player, is on the floor.

The Aces have been playing better defense, holding three of their last four foes to 80 points or fewer. Las Vegas has been down offensively this season ranking below average in many major categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting.

Jewel Loyd hasn't come close to matching departed Kelsey Plum's points and assists. The Aces also have started to give him more minutes to Kristen Bell, a high-energy, tenacious defender who contributes little on offense.

This is a rivalry matchup, too, so the defensive intensity should be way up.

Golden State is 3-8 on the road. The Valkyries are traveling cross country after beating the Wings at home two days ago. This is an early start time, which is a big negative for the Valkyries.

It is also the Valkyrie's second game without injured All-Star Kayla Thornton, their best player.

Connecticut actually has the two best players on the court in Tina Charles and Marina Mabrey, who is back from injury.

The Valkyries have a bottom-three offense and that was with Thornton. The situation is bad for them and they don't have enough offense to cover a road number as a midsize favorite.

It has been a difficult and disappointing season for the Aces. But I will take double digits with them as they are a desperate and prideful team following an 80-70 road loss to the Fever on Thursday.

The one good news for the Aces in that defeat was superstar A'ja Wilson played fewer than 30 minutes. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammond intentionally kept her minutes down in anticipation of this huge matchup. I regard Wilson as the top player in the WNBA.

The Lynx have the stronger bench. But Las Vegas actually has more star power with Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.

The Aces have put together a little three-game win streak. The victories have been against the Valkyries at home in narrow fashion, versus the 7-17 Wings and an impressive home victory against the Dream two days ago. 

But make no mistake about it. The Aces are down from last season and way down from their championship form of two seasons ago. 

The Fever hosted Las Vegas three weeks ago. They buried the Aces, 81-54, despite not having Caitlin Clark. Clark remains out. That is not necessarily a huge negative though for Indiana. Bothered by injuries, Clark's shooting has been way off this season. 

Indiana is talented without Clark. They have a pair of All Star-caliber players, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, and a deeper bench than Las Vegas. 

While the Aces are a bit fat and happy, Indiana will be highly motivated after three consecutive road games, including back-to-back disappointing away losses to the Liberty.

Most of the action is on the Mercury. It's easy to understand why since Atlanta played at Las Vegas on Tuesday night and lost, 87-72. The fatigue factor won't be nearly that great, however, since the Dream previously had played last Wednesday.

The Mercury have not played in a week. So the Dream are going to be far less rusty than Phoenix. The Mercury are one of the most improved teams in the league. But so is Atlanta with a 13-10 record.

The Dream are the best rebounding team in the WNBA. They also give up fewer points per game than Phoenix.

Washington had won three in a row until losing on the road against the Sparks last Tuesday. That marked the Mystics' fourth game in eight days and final game before the all-star break. Los Angeles took advantage to win 99-80 at home.

The Mystics are the superior team, are home now and have revenge motivation going. The Sparks rank in the bottom-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and three-point defense. Washington gives up nearly seven fewer points per game than Los Angeles.

The Sparks have the second-worst record against the spread at 8-13-1 ATS. LA's 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games.

No team has been playing better defense in the WNBA during the first two weeks of this month than Washington. The Mystics were giving up 72 points a game during their last three games until their final game before all-star break when they surrendered 99 points on the road to the Sparks last Tuesday.

The rested Mystics should play with great defensive intensity in a revenge setting at home. They know one of the keys to victory is not running with the Sparks. So I see a slower paced game here.

There is a possibility the Sparks get promising second-year center Cameron Brink for this game. Brink has been out all season recuperating from a knee injury suffered last season. If Brink were to play, it would be an added bonus for the Under.

Team Collier has a much better up and down roster than Team Clark. This is especially so since Team Clark will be down two starters. Satou Sabally is out and so is Caitlin Clark. Sabally and Clark are two of the four best players on Team Clark.

Not only does Team Collier have better starters with Napheesa Collier, Breanna Stewart, Allisha Gray, Nneka Ogwumike and Paige Bueckers, but their bench is much stronger than Team Clark.

Team Clark can't match Team Colliers bench production of Angel Reese, Alyssa Thomas, Kelsey Plum and Skylar Diggs. 

A'ja Wilson is back healthy for Las Vegas. While Wilson is a dominant scorer her rebounding, shot blocking and ability to come up with steals also makes her a dominant defensive force. The Aces rank 9th in scoring and our 11th in shooting percentage. Las Vegas really misses the spark, outside shooting and playmaking skills of Kelsey Plum. Jewel Lloyd has yet to get comfortable in Las Vegas' offense. 

The Wings are averaging 77 points in their last three games. There are a number of stars playing in this game. But they're scoring hasn't matched their reputations recently. 

I see more defense being played in this game than perceived.

I want the Storm at home in double revenge going for me against the expansion Valkyries. The Valkyries have already exceeded their season over/under win total with a 10-11 record.

However, the Valkyries are 1-4 in their last five games. They are at least one level lower than the 13-9 Storm.

It is a source of frustration for the Storm to have lost twice to Golden State last month. Seattle has a huge talent edge with three All Stars - Skylar Diggins, Nneka Ogwumike and Gabby Williams. The Valkyries' bottom-three offense can't match that firepower.

Golden State has been a major surprise, but the Valkyries are struggling now as this is the final game before the All-Star break for the teams.

The efficient Storm rate third in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Seattle was upset by Washington at home in its last game. The Storm certainly don't want to go into the All-Star break having suffered consecutive home upset losses.

Connecticut is going for its fourth straight cover. I see the Sun getting it hosting Indiana.

The Fever have a much bigger game on deck when they play the defending WNBA champion Liberty on Wednesday in New York.

The Sun are the worst team in the league but won't lack motivation. This is a special nationally televised game from TD Garden in Boston, home of the Celtics. Connecticut will not want to be embarrassed.

There is bad blood between these two teams. The Fever blew out the Sun when the teams last met on June 17th in Indiana. There were 43 fouls called and three players were ejected. There was a near fight with Sophie Cunningham standing up for Caitlin Clark, who was poked in the eye and then pushed.

Connecticut is 4-2 against the spread in its last six home games, including upsetting Atlanta and Seattle straight up during this span.