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NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - This total has mostly held at 46 but is starting to drop to 45.5 at the time of this posting Thursday morning. The Lions caught the Falcons last week off a tight win over, ironically, these same Packers. It was Atlanta's first road game of the season and the perfect spot for the Falcons offense to fall flat and they did just that. Sure some credit is due the Lions defense but lets not forget the week 1 win over KC saw the Chiefs, like a lot of teams, struggle on offense. Detroit then gave up plenty in the 37-31 OT loss to Seattle. I do like the Lions offense so far this season but am not yet sold on the defense. That said, the Packers should move the ball well here. They have really played well with Jordan Love at QB. Keep in mind in limited action last season he also played well behind long-time Packer Aaron Rodgers - now with the Jets but out with injury. The point is that Love is finally getting his opportunity and he is making the most of it. Now he can build momentum off a come-from-behind win last week. GB got that key win after a very slow start and lets not forget the Pack averaged 31 points in the first two games this season. So the point is that both teams are off lower-scoring games last week but these offenses showed what they could do the first two weeks this season. Considering the low-scoring trend of primetime NFL action this season are you surprised the odds makers have this total set in the mid-40s? Trust me it is not a mistake and the books are honestly expecting the same thing I am here and I am looking for 50+ in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:30 ET - The dominant line here as of early game day morning is 6.5 but there is some 6 out there and I am laying it. I am going to start here by talking about Colorado State which may surprise you but it is with good reason. What does Colorado State have to do with this game? Plenty! The Rams had the memorable devastating double-OT loss to Colorado two weeks ago. They never should have blown the big lead and lost that game and it was heartbreaking. Following the gut-wrenching loss they were going on the road to Middle Tennessee State. Situations from the scheduling gods don't get much better than that for the Blue Raiders. They were catching a team playing B2B games away from home and they were catching them off a soul-crushing loss. How did MTSU handle it? Like the very weak team they are. The Blue Raiders lost outright even though they were favored in that one. Now they face a Western Kentucky team that has dominated them in recent meetings and also comes in angry off B2B losses. The Hilltoppers are going to roll here at home. Not only have they won big in the last two meetings, they are also on a 6-0 ATS run in weeknight home games. You know the Toppers are fired up with this primetime weeknight opportunity on their home field and they will pull away as this one goes along! WKU improves to 7-0 ATS in this spot! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:15 ET - The current dominant number on this one is 5 though you might find a stray 4.5 out there - at least as of very early game day morning. This is a battle of early season unbeatens and the Eagles have started at least 3-0 (last season started 8-0), 3 times in the past 9 seasons. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has not gone 3-0 in nearly TWO decades as you have to go all the way back to 2005. The Bucs have been around since 1976 - nearly a HALF century - and yet they only have started a season 3-0 THREE times! As you can see with historical odds like this, the Eagles certainly are the likely team to win this SU but what about the all-important cover? Well, Philly has 9 straight wins by 5 or more points and 15 of last 17 by 5 or more points. So 5 may not seem like a key number but it has been for the Eagles and, either way, look for a win by at least a TD in this one. Tampa Bay's last 7 SU losses have all come by 6 or more. The Eagles are so strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will be key here. Also, imagine you are starting a team would you rather have Jalen Hurts at QB or Baker Mayfield? That is no disrespect to the latter but I have a feeling he is going to get a reality check this week against a tough Eagles defensive line that will pressure the hell out of him. Also, Sirianni is now 25-11 SU in regular season NFL as a head coach while Bowles is 36-50 SU as a head coach. The Eagles also have the rest edge after playing on Thursday last week so they have had extra time off compared to TB as the Bucs beat the Bears Sunday. The Eagles and Buccaneers have each played the Vikings this season. The Bucs were outgained 369 to 242 by Minny. Philly outgained Minnesota 430 to 374. In other words, the D numbers were similar but the Eagles offense put up nearly 200 yards more than TB. The Bucs are a decent team but they are over-rated right now. Philly is a Super Bowl contender. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) the points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the Steelers than a play on the Raiders but either way I do like this spot for laying the points with Las Vegas. The line is available at a 2.5 as of early game day morning and the Steelers are on a short week and traveling west and their off a key divisional win. They were heavily outgained by the Browns and so it is a deceiving win for the Black and Gold. This Pittsburgh team is just not that good as I have written before about them heading into this season. The Steelers have been continuing a downward trajectory and I faded them when they were destroyed by the Niners in Week 1. I know that they got the win last week but that was a gift-wrapped game from the Browns and the stats show that Pittsburgh has really struggled early this season. The Raiders are off an ugly loss but they faced an angry Bills team that is one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo was playing its home opener and was off a loss and the Raiders were in the wrong place at the wrong time. From the start of the season until October 9th, this is the only home game for Las Vegas and so they will make the most of this home opener. Also, under coach McDaniels they covered five of six times ATS when facing a team that was off a SU/ATS win like the Steelers are here. Pittsburgh started last season 1-4 and the year before 1-3 and Tomlin is in for another slow start this season and they will not be so lucky again this week like they were hosting Cleveland. First road game of the season for the Steelers and the Raiders have the rest edge and situational edge and roll huge at home. 10* LAS VEGAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - There are multiple ways to analyze this game, just like any game really of course. But I do feel my angle on this is the right one. This total is around a 43 as of early gameday morning and I feel strongly that it will prove to be far too low. I think Dallas could be a little flat defensively here. They played great in the divisional win at the Giants in Week 1. Then, in week 2, they played great in their home opener. Those were 2 very big, important match-ups. Now this week they have a non-divisional road game against a team projected to be one of the worst in the NFL. Do you really think the intensity level of the Cowboys defense is going to the be the same it was for a season opener against a division rival followed by a home opener? Me neither! At the same time however, the offense was not that good in week 1 as Prescott and everyone was rusty. They looked much better in week 2 and Prescott and company want to keep building on that here and they will take advantage of a very bad Cardinals defense here! As for the Arizona offense, they have been respectable early this season and, keep in mind, the Cowboys defense faced a Giants offense that has now been horrible in 2 of 3 games this season and a Jets offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers to injury before they ever arrived in Dallas for that week 2 match-up. The Cardinals had nearly 400 yards of offense last week and I feel certain they will move the ball well here at home against a bit of a disinterested Cowboys D that will come in underestimating this team. At the same time, this weak Cards D has no chance of stopping a Dallas offense that is hell-bent on showing improvement with Prescott and Co on a mission early this season to prove the doubters wrong. 4 straight meetings and 6 of the last 7 between these clubs have totaled at least 45 points and this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - Look around the league at undefeated teams after just 2 weeks of the seasons and one of the surprises is Washington. That is helping give us some value this week because this team is not that good and it is an undefeated team that deserves to be faded now. Adding to the value is the fact that Bills are just 1-1 this season. Buffalo already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders last week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not done yet because now the mantra is to prove they can win on the road. The Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road. Also, there are triple perfect angles supporting this play. Note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won six in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. They will carry momentum here! As for Commanders coach Ron Rivera he has not fared well when his team has at least a .500 record on the season and his team is installed as an underdog as his teams have lost seven in a row ATS in that situation. Also, the Commanders have a divisional foe on deck in the form of the Eagles and they have lost four (or five depending on line) in a row ATS when Philadelphia is up next for them. All this is just situational data but the fact is it further supports our play here. Buffalo has been one of the top teams in the league in recent seasons while these Commanders have not had a winning season since the 2016 season. This line is around a 5 as of early gameday morning and this is in an excellent value. 10* BUFFALO (-)

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Huskies vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET - This total has dropped quite a bit from the opener and is in the 57 range as of early gameday morning. I feel we have excellent line value here as too much respect is being given to some defensive stats each team has but take a look at some of the offensive production. Cal is averaging 80 plays per game on offense and that rates as one of the highest rates in the nation. Washington rates as the most efficient team in the nation as their yards per play average is nearly 10 yards! Keep in mind, that is an average of nearly getting a first down with every snap. The Huskies are very dangerous and strong offensively and it looks like only light winds and light rain in the forecast for Husky Stadium Saturday night in Seattle. Keep in mind, the Huskies have scored more than 40 in every game this season and it is not like they faced FCS foes! The Golden Bears faced a tough defense when they faced Auburn but they woke up to score 31 points last week in the 2nd half against an FCS foe. In other words, had they also been awake for the first half one could logically say they would have scored 62 points! They did score 58 points in their first game and that was against an FBS foe as they faced North Texas. The point is that both teams are confident right now yet the Huskies favored by 3 TDS for a reason. Lets say the odds makers are right about this line. If Cal scores just 20 points but the line is correct at 3 TDs then a 41-20 final puts this game into the 60s. I feel we have excellent value here because this Huskies offense is running like a well-oiled machine so far but Cal can move the ball as well. The Golden Bears offense looks better than it has in the past and they have scored at least 20 in each of last 3 meetings with Huskies. This one gets into the 60s the way I see it! 10* OVER the total in Washington

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7:30 ET - It is impossible to forecast the exact timing of the rain but showers followed by heavy rain and some wind - not too windy but possible gusts - are moving into the area because of Tropical Storm Opheila. State College, PA is over 200 miles away the ocean but the fact is those bands of rain are coming deep inland and I love having big points with an underdog when conditions are a little bit sloppy. This is particularly true when it is a defensive-minded dog that likes to run the football. I know that the Nittany Lions have a great record so far and have looked good but they benefited firstly from rather easy opponents then first two weeks - dysfunctional West Virginia team and an FCS team (Delaware) - and then secondly from Illinois turning the ball over 5 times against them last week! Penn State is a rock solid team and I really like their QB too. They have the definite aerial attack edge in this match-up but you can tell by the low total posted on this game, this one is expected to be a low-scoring defensive-minded rush-oriented match-up. This Hawkeyes team has a very tough defense and they are well-coached. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the nation and has been here for a quarter-century now! The Hawkeyes have won the the last two meetings outright and, while I am not anticipating that here, I am expecting this one to be decided by a one-score margin. That means excellent line value with Iowa available at +14.5 and no less than +14 as of early gameday morning. We'll take it! 10* IOWA + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3:30 ET - This line has been all over the place because of the uncertain status of QB Cameron Rising for the Utes. Let me tell you what we do know about this match-up. Kyle Whittingham is a better coach than Chip Kelly. The UCLA young quarterback has played well but makes his first ever PAC-12 road start. The Bruins are playing right into the teeth of revenge as UCLA won a tight one (though double digit final margin of 10) over Utah last season. That was the 1st win in 4 tries for Kelly with the Bruins against Whittingham with the Utes. The first 3 meetings...how did those go? Utah won all 3 by at least 20 each team and with an average margin of victory at 32 points! There is nothing average about that and the Utes defense got embarrassed last season at UCLA. That is where one of the biggest keys lies in this rematch. Everyone is talking about QB Rising and the fact he may miss again but the Utes offense has still been decent and they still have the better defense in this match-up plus they are at home and plus this Utah defense wants to prove that last season was an aberration. A lot of key factors including a solid low number here (3.5 as of early gameday morning) have me all over the Utes in this one! 10* UTAH (-) points

Friday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 53.5 in Purdue Boilermakers vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - I am going to take advantage of a low total here. This total is based more on long-term reputation of the Badgers defense but this Wisconsin defense is just not what it once was. Even Georgia Southern threw all over them last week and would have had a lot more points were it not for turnovers. The week before the Badgers allowed 31 at Washington State. The Badgers have scored at least 35 points in both their wins this season and they are favored here for a reason. However, the fact that Purdue has a solid passing game, led by a former UT QB (Card) whom I liked quite a bit there, means that the Boilermakers should turn this into a back and forth high-scoring affair. The Boilers have a solid passing attack but, like the Badgers, they have had some issues on defense. They are allowing about 400 yards per game and they allowed at least 35 in each of their two losses. It will be very nice weather for an over in West Lafayette, IN tonight as well. Light winds and very mild temperatures. Last season these teams totaled 59 points in their meeting and the defenses were better then than they are now. The Badgers offense will continue to get a little better week by week as they have a new head coach in Luke Fickell this season. Wisconsin has averaged scoring 39 points in last 4 meetings with Boilers. Again, the issue is the Badgers defense is not a typical Wiscy defense and we take advantage just as the Boilermakers passing attack will as well! 10* OVER 53.5 in Purdue

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Laying double digits in the NFL is always a scary proposition in my book and the situation becomes even tougher on a short week. That's because a lot of things have to go right to beat any NFL team by double digits. That is why you don't see many double digit lines in the NFL. Being fully prepared to blowout a team is even tougher when playing on a Thursday after a Sunday win over a divisional foe. SF has failed to cover 6 of last 7 on Thursday when coming off a SU win in their prior game. This line is a solid 10.5 at the time of this posting and I feel we have excellent value with the big road dog in this one. Everyone is still thinking about the Giants losing to Dallas 40 to 0 in Week 1 primetime but are forgetting that the Cowboys only had 265 yards of TOTAL offense in that game! To put that in proper perspective, this 49ers team (which certainly is strong and has a solid defense too) allowed 297 PASSING yards to the Rams in their win last week! So lets not bury the Giants just yet in comparison to the Niners. The Giants got caught still lamenting the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys when they were down by 21 midway through the 3rd quarter at Arizona last week. However, the Giants rally did two things last week. It gave them a win of course, which is big, but the bigger thing it did was give them confidence. This Giants team feels much different now emotionally and mentally heading into this battle with the Niners and they have done very well as a road dog under HC Brian Daboll as they went 8-2 ATS in that role last season. I know Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants here but guess who Matt Breida started his career with? San Francisco of course! Watch Breida have a huge game against his former team and the Giants surprise in this one! I am not saying they win this one outright but I am feeling confident in a game decided by a one score margin. Give me the double digits here! Daboll will have his team ready and he was Coach of the Year last season and will not be embarrassed again on primetime like they were in that sloppy week one loss to the Cowboys. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina (-) vs Georgia State @ 7:30 ET - This series has been dominated by the road team recently and, in my opinion, that is keeping the line (6.5 at time of this posting) on this one lower than it should be. Coastal Carolina is really rolling under their new coach after all the changes made after last season's last collapse. I like this Chanticleers team. I am not crazy about their defense but they have enough offense to dominate in this one. Keep in mind, new head coach Tim Beck was offensive coordinator at NC State and he has this offense firing on all cylinders now. They have played the tougher schedule than Georgia State thus far. The Chanticleers had to face the Bruins at UCLA and having that one really tough game and a SU loss helps them here. Georgia State is 3-0 SU but has not really been challenged yet. The Chanticleers are 3-0 ATS this season as they did cover in that SU loss at UCLA. The Panthers have been allowing more points than Coastal Carolina and CC has the stronger offense too. Combining all that with the home field edge, the play here is the home team as laying less than a TD is a real bargain here and the current line is 6.5 on this one at time of posting. The Chanticleers are 100% ATS this season and I am happy to test that here. Look for 4-0 ATS after this one goes in the books! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA (-)

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This total has been adjusted down to 38 and is just too low in my opinion. The Steelers got dominated last week but that was a solid 49ers defense they faced. Now they catch the Browns off a dominating divisional win. Yes, the Cleveland defense looked great last week but did you see the Bengals offense again yesterday at home against the Ravens? This Cincinnati team has issues on offense and so I expect the Steelers to do much better on offense at home against a Browns defense that is solid but a bit over-rated already early this season. Pittsburgh did move the ball last week against that strong 49ers team but they just couldn't get much going down the field. They will find more openings here against a Browns team that has given up at least 22 points in 21 of 27 road games (including post-season) under Stefanski. That includes an average of 32 points in 4 road games at Pittsburgh. The Browns defense will be tested here but part of the reason I faded the Steelers last week (and won with SF) is because I do not trust this Pittsburgh defense. Sure enough they gave up nearly 400 yards and the damage might have been worse were it not such a blowout in which the Niners were able to stop pushing much on offense. I look for Cleveland to move the ball well here too just like SF did and with this being more of a back and forth game, the Browns will not back down and with having such a bad history here in regular season games, I know Cleveland will keep pushing hard for the win. Game could go either way late in terms of the SU winner but, in terms of the total, this should get well into the 40s in a back and forth battle with good weather in PA for this one too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh 

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers + vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:15 ET - Dennis Allen is head coach of the Saints. With the win he got last week, his NFL career head coaching record is 14-38. That is not a mistype. 14-38 is his career record. I know the Saints could win this division this season but the NFC South is truly a bit of an up for grabs type of division these days so that is not saying much. I personally think even the Panthers could ultimately challenge. Frank Reich was offensive coordinator of the Eagles when they beat the mighty Patriots in Feb of 2018. He then went to be head coach of the Colts and had a 40-33 record with them including taking them to the playoffs twice. His record is not fantastic but Reich has a leg up on Allen when it comes to head coaching edge in this match-up the way I see it. I know the Saints have the more established QB now and the Panthers were done in by turnovers last week but they will be better here at home in week 2. Also, they actually outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in that week 1 loss. That is the same Atlanta team that beat GB yesterday and though that win was by just as single point, the Falcons actually outgained the Packers by 200 yards and actually only punted ONCE the entire game! That is domination and the points is that the way the Panthers defense played in week one looks even more impressive now as the Falcons are 2-0 and flying high on offense. The offense of Carolina will be better this week and Reich's background is offense. So the key here is this is a solid defense that can contain the Saints offense. New Orleans benefitted from turnovers in their week 1 win so this is another point of value here in evaluating week 2 match-ups. Now with this line at a solid +3 and you might even find some 3.5 starting to show up, this is an excellent home dog spot. The Panthers were 4-0 ATS in home games last season when coming off a road loss in their prior game. They respond at home here and I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points just in case. 10* CAROLINA +

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots + vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The dominant number as of early game day morning is 2.5 but there is a little bit of 3 out there. Either way I am looking for an outright win here for the home team but it is nice any time you have a line that sets up where a 2 point loss is still a win as well and that is the case here. First off, I like the home dog factor here. Secondly, I like the fact the Patriots fell short against the Eagles despite outgaining them last week. Did you see how Philly than ran all over the Vikings Thursday? Give this Patriots defense some credit for holding Philly in check last week! As for the Dolphins, they are off a shootout win and I love fading teams off high-scoring wins like that. The fact Miami snuck away with the victory over the Chargers even though they gave up a pile of points and big yardage set this one up well. The Dolphins may not fully realize how much they need to focus on the defensive side of the field for this one. They come in 1-0 but off an effort in which they allowed 34 points plus huge yardage on the ground. After playing in LA last week the Dolphins now go coast to coast for this one and the Pats threw for over 300 yards last week. I know Miami piled up yardage too but their D is a weakness. I trust NE to get some stops here and the Pats offense will be able to move the ball all game long. They threw well against Philly plus the Dolphins proved last week they are susceptible on the ground so the Patriots should enjoy plenty of success here on offense and I expect the defense to hold up. 10* NEW ENGLAND + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this as of early gameday morning is 8.5 and this an over-reaction to the Cowboys 40-0 win last week and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers to season-ending injury. Keep in mind, Dallas actually only won the yardage battle by 94 yards last week. That does not equate to a 40-point beatdown of course. That is not much of a yardage edge. The Jets have a very strong defense that can also create havoc and turnovers as the Cowboys did last week. In fact, the Jets proved that with their upset of Buffalo in OT Monday night. I know this is a short week for the Jets but it is still early in the season and you are still talking about fresh bodies that are in much less banged up than as the season goes on. Later in the season, short rest is more of a factor. The Cowboys were originally around a FG favorite in this game. Now they are favored by more than a TD. Take advantage of the line value here. The Cowboys are actually 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they are at home and coming off a game in which they scored 40 or more points! Look for Dallas, known to stumble at home in spots like this, to come in overconfident after last week's big road win over a division rival. Conversely, the Jets are well aware of the blowout win that the Cowboys just delivered in their own stadium (the stadium they share with the Giants) and they will be geared up and well prepared for the upset win here. Their defense will really test Prescott in this one just like they did against the Bills Allen. They may not get the outright upset but I expect this game to be decided by a one score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens + @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - As of early Sunday morning there is still some 3.5 available on this one and even if TE Andrews does not play for Baltimore I do expect them to get the cover in this match-up. Looking for an outright win but we will grab the points just in case. I am aware of RB Dobbins now out for the year for Baltimore. However, have you seen the different running backs the Eagles are using this year and how they ran all over Minnesota Thursday night. The point is that if a team has the right play-calling, a solid offensive line, and is well-coached they get their ground game going no matter who the running backs are. Of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is also an ultra-dangerous threat with his legs too and keeps defenses honest. He was not available when Ravens lost at Cincinnati in the post-season last year. The fact is, however, the Ravens significantly outgained the Bengals in their 3 match-ups last season even though the majority of those stats were without starting QB Jackson which, unlike RB, is absolutely an extremely critical position. You see where I am going with this...we are getting even more line value here because of the RB injury for the Ravens. This is a major revenge game for Baltimore and they used last week's blowout win over the Texans as a tune-up for this game. As for Cincinnati, they were in the process of a blowout loss last week at Cleveland. You might think that makes this a great spot for the Bengals but actually they have failed to cover 7 straight times when in the following situation: at home and favored by less than a TD and coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. That makes this a play against spot for Cincinnati and I look for this play-against angle to reach 8 WINNERS IN A ROW as this spot is further strengthened by the revenge aspect for the Ravens and the fact this is a division rival too. 10* BALTIMORE +3.5 

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - I am expecting starting QB Michael Pratt to go in this one even though he is a game time decision. In my opinion that is keep this total - currently as low as 48.5 - lower than it should be as of early game day morning. Pratt is expected to suit up here and go through warm-ups and has been increasing practice throughout the week. The feeling here is they did not want to risk him last week in a tough match-up against SEC foe Mississippi. Kai Horton got the start in that game and I am 100% comfortable if he goes again here. That is because Southern Miss has a defense that pales in comparison to an SEC defense! The Green Wave will move the ball well here as they seek revenge for last season's loss to the Golden Eagles which also means Tulane will not take their foot off the gas in this one. Southern Miss did allow 66 points last week. I do expect the Eagles to struggle again here on that side of the ball but they will score better at home as well. Southern Miss has averaged scoring 32.6 ppg last 8 home games. The Green Wave are coming off a huge season and are very talented offensively and scored 37 in Week 1 before struggling against Ole Miss last week - a strong SEC team. Both teams has played 2 games so far this season and all 4 of these games have totaled at least 54 points and this one will as well. Tulane averaged 36 ppg last season and they will likely repeat that average again this year. A lot of value with the low posted total here. 10* OVER the total in Southern Miss

CFB Saturday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - This line is holding at 14 as of early game day morning. Remember 2 weeks ago when Penn State punched it in late (just seconds left on the clock) for a "meaningless" TD against West Virginia that gave them a 23 point win in a game in which they were favored by 20 points? That is the kind of stuff to keep in mind when you are contemplating whether or not you are comfortable laying big points with a team. This Nittany Lions team is off to a hot start and yes I know they played an outclassed Delaware team last week but the fact is PSU is rolling with confidence on both sides of the ball right now. This is a much different situation than the last time they faced Illinois and this Illini defense is also much weaker than that one. That match-up I am referring to was only 2 years ago in 2021 but the Nittany Lions entered that game off their first loss of the season. They were demoralized and flat after their 5-0 start to the season came crashing to a halt against Iowa. Penn State went on to lose to Illinois in a crazy OT game of defensive prowess that took forever to finish in a multi-OT slugfest. Things are much different this time around and the Illini do not look nearly as strong for this rematch. Their defense is not as strong and Illinois is 0-2 ATS because they barely got by a MAC team in Week 1 and then got hammered by Kansas last week. Certainly Toledo is a respectable opponent and the Jayhawks are much more respectable than they used to be. However, now the Illini face a revenge-minded and stacked Penn State team that will not hesitate to pile up points even with a big late lead. I expect this one to possibly be tight early for a bit but eventually the much stronger road team pulls away for a win by at least a 3 TD margin the way I see it. There is also a perfect trend here that has gone undefeated the last 14 times involving Penn State. That is that when the Nittany Lions are entering a match-up against a conference foe and PSU is coming off B2B wins both SU and ATS, they have not failed to cover in any of the last 14. There is one push in the bunch and we could see a push here if this one lands on 14 but I am looking for another win by 20+ for this road team! 10* PENN STATE (-)

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - Maybe we will see -7 on this but I want to get this play written up and out to all my customers and the current number is 7.5 and 8 as of Friday morning. Army has some impressive stats already but they played Delaware State - an FCS school - and UL Monroe. Note that the latter (the Warhawks) have won only 8 games the past 3 seasons combined! The Black Knights are a solid scrappy team and can be a tough underdog. But they gave up a pile of points to the Roadrunners last season. I know that Army also scored well in that one but I look for the Runners to be much tougher defensively at home in the rematch. I know UTSA has not been overly impressive early this season but they faced a couple of in-state foes that really had it out for them. Texas State is improved - already upset Baylor - and Houston is a tough in-state foe. In terms of strength of schedule, it is really night and day between these two teams so far this season. Adding to the value here is that UTSA is fully aware that they will NOT have another home game until mid-October! So this is it until a month from now and they will make this one count and they will be relentless. Note that this line was double digits and now has moved down to almost a 7. I love spots like this where the betting markets have adjusted a line substantially. More often than not the move is not warranted. I get it that Army can be a tough dog but this Runners team is solid and has been great under the current regime and won about 75% of its games over 4+ seasons! In terms of covering the spread here, Army's last 8 losses in true road games have seen 6 come by a double digit margin. That is a 75% rate of double digit losses in road defeats in recent seasons that dates back to the 2020 season. More of the same here. 10* UTSA (-)

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings + points @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Sure I would rather have 7+ points in this game rather than the current number of 6 or 6.5 as of early gameday but I am not going to let the line movement sway my original thoughts on this one. Those are summarized in the fact that this is a tough spot for the Eagles to win, let alone win big! Note that the Eagles were outplayed last week at New England. We had Philly and though they were up 16-0 at one point early on they really were fortunate and we were fortunate to get the win and cover there as they hung on for dear life late. Conversely the Vikings were done in by 3 turnovers in the home loss to Tampa Bay last week. Philly off a fortunate win and not realizing how badly they played because they still won. Vikings off an unfortunate loss and can't wait to get back on the field. That said, I love having the points in this match-up as Minnesota goes for revenge and they are angry too. They lost here last season but went 13-3 in the rest of their regular season games last season! Last week, the Eagles barely beat a Patriots team that is a mediocre .500 team the last three YEARS combined! In terms of technical angles, in the first quarter (four games) of a season the Eagles have lost 12 of 13 ATS when they are favored against a team that has a losing record and is off an ATS loss. Also, in early season (first quarter) games in the season like this, Philly has lost 14 of 18 ATS when facing a team with revenge. The key is the situation here and how these teams TRULY played last week and the fact we get about 6 points to work with here as well. However, I will also mention an interesting stat that the Eagles have gone 0-7 ATS when they have a Monday Night game on deck. Up next for Philly is a Monday night affair at Tampa Bay and I think the Eagles will think their overall clout and home field will be enough here versus the Vikings but this Philly team has issues on both sides of the ball right now. Minnesota got embarrassed here in an early season primetime game last season and they make up for that here in a big way as the Vikings might even pull off the shocker upset but I see at least a cover here. That said, I expect the play against trend involving the Eagles here makes it 8 IN A ROW in this one! 10* MINNESOTA + points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -14 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Longtime followers know I am not big on laying big points in any sport. However, on occasion - when the situation is right - I will not hesitate to step in and lay the lumber. This is one of those rare cases. The Midshipmen are only as good as their QB. It has been that way for a long time and it is not changing anytime soon because they are so dependent on him with the type of offense they play. That said, scoring 24 points on Wagner in game they were favored by 42 points is not a good sign. Remember this was on the heels of a season opening shellacking at the hands of Notre Dame. Navy scored only 3 points in that game. No the Tigers are not the Fighting Irish. However, the Midshipmen have missed the mark ATS by at least 18 points in each of their first two games. That said, I have no hesitation here in rolling with a Memphis team that is so strong offensively that they can pile up big points here and Navy will not be able to keep up. Yes the Tigers faced overmatched Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State so far but still they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The way Memphis can score points very quickly and very well and the fact the D looked good against a Red Wolves team that averaged 25 points per game on offense in each of the first two seasons under head coach Butch Jones, don't be surprised if the Tigers roll huge here at home. Remember that big win last week was at Arkansas State and now they are at home here for this visit from Navy. 10* MEMPHIS -14

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:15 ET - The Bills will be ready here. The Jets beat them last season in the game here in early November. That one moved the Jets to 6-3 on the season. After that game, the Jets lost 7 of 8 the rest of the way including a loss at Buffalo. Yes the Jets are improved but all the hype about Aaron Rodgers will also put a target on their backs. The Bills come in fired up after another dismissal from the playoffs and you know that Josh Allen wants redemption here after he and his teammates could not get it done in the post-season game in January. So lets look closely at this one. The Jets are improving and are respectable but they wrapped up last season with 6 straight losses. This is still a New York team that has TOTALED only 13 wins the last 3 seasons. Conversely, this is a Buffalo team that has AVERAGED 13 wins the last 4 seasons! The Bills are consistent, well-coached, and I like Allen to have a bigger game than Rodgers here. With Buffalo on the road for this one we get a very reasonable line to work with here and I am willing to lay it! Currently this line, as of very early game day morning, is available in the 1.5 to 2 range on the spread or 120 to 130 range on the money line. This is a helluva strong value in my opinion. The Bills lost 3 games all of last season and by a TOTAL of only 8 points! That is an average of 2.7 points per defeat. The Jets lost 10 games all of last season and that was by an average of 9.6 points per defeat! If one team pulls away in this game for a dominant win, who do you think would when you consider numbers like this? As we all know, strange things can happen in a game because after all, it is a GAME. However, I am merely pointing out that I do not think enough has changed for the Bills OR for the Jets from last season to this season to warrant this line. Has Buffalo regressed that much? Have the Jets improved that much? I am willing to put both those hypotheses to the test here because I personally do not believe that. Remember the Bills lost just 3 regular season games last season. This was one of JUST three so they remember losing here. They also have been waiting to get back on the field ever since the disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals. This is going to be a hungry road team here that will be tenacious all night long. Lay it! 10* BUFFALO (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants deserve some respect here but the Cowboys continue to have their number. I just do not see that changing here. Note that the Giants entered last season having gone 14-35 the 3 prior seasons. Then last year they made the post-season and even won a playoff game before getting blasted by the Eagles. However, New York started last season 6-1 and then went 3-6-1 the rest of the way in the regular season. This means that we are still talking about a team that, outside of last year's hot start to the season, has gone 17-41-1 in their other 59 regular season games the past 4 seasons. Yes, the Giants certainly showed improvement last season as they even made playoffs. However, isn't it concerning they won those games early in the season and then struggled the rest of the way? This is a classic case of getting line value because the better team in the match-up is on the road. With a line of -3, we are basically just asking the Cowboys to win this game. Dallas has actually had tremendous success in this role as they have covered 20 of last 23 (excluding pushes) when they are a divisional favorite of more than two points. The Giants, when I look at their receivers, just do not have the talent level to match a determined Dak Prescott with his bolstered receiving group and I feel the Cowboys will eventually put away in this game. Value with the short road favorite here. Lay it. 10* DALLAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this one as of game day morning is 3.5 and the Patriots saw 8 of their 9 losses (including all 4 at home) come by a margin of at least 4 points last season! Also, take a look at the Eagles final 9 games last season. Prior to a 3 point loss in the Super Bowl, Philadelphia had gone 9 straight games without a single game decided by less than 5 points. The point is that I am picking the winner in this game to be the Eagles and the above stats are also why I feel confident that laying the points is not an issue. Philadelphia is, of course, one of the best teams in the league right now. The Patriots, ironically Brady is being honored at today's game by the way, is nowhere near the level of team they use to be in the Tom Brady days. So the point is we are getting a lot of line value here considering the Eagles are not only expected to win their division this season, they are a Super Bowl contender again. Compare this to a Patriots team that many project will end up in last place in the AFC East this season. So, the point is that we have line value here on the surface and it looks even better as you dig deeper here. Jalen Hurts over Mac Jones at QB. A relentless Eagles defensive line attacking a key weakness in this Patriots team (offensive line shaky in preseason). Also, the Pats have some injury issues in the offensive line plus there were already concerns at the tackle positions. The Patriots will ride some emotions for awhile here (season opener at home and honoring Brady) but eventually the Eagles will pull away as the visitors in this match-up hold key edges all over the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play San Francisco 49ers (-) @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - Look out! The Steelers are back! After all, they went 7-2 to close out last season to make sure Tomlin's long streak of having not had a losing season for the Steelers remained intact! Of course I am writing with sarcasm here because this Steelers team is not that strong ladies and gentlemen and this is a bargain line to have the much stronger team and essentially just ask them to win the game. The line is currently a -2 as of early gameday morning and the 49ers are coming off a fantastic season. They are the better team defensively, stronger at the all-important QB position, and are very well-coached. That is not to say Tomlin is not a good coach but the fact is San Francisco has the stronger roster and I really like what the Niners have been doing in recent seasons. As for Pittsburgh, now I come back to that 7-2 season-ending run. Two of the games were against the rival Ravens and they did manage a 1-1 split here. In the other 7 games however, the 6 wins the Steelers had came against teams that ALL had losing records when they faced them. Those 6 teams, at the time Pittsburgh met them, had a combined record of 30-44-1 and NONE of them had a winning record. All 6 of those teams ended up missing the playoffs and ALL 6 had DOUBLE DIGITS in losses at the end of the season. The point is that the Steelers season-ending run was not so impressive when you consider those factors and now they face a 49ers team that nearly went to the Super Bowl last season! Indeed, my money is on the Niners here at an absolute bargain price. This Steelers team is just nowhere near the team they use to be and last season was the 3rd time in 5 years that they have missed the post-season. 10* SAN FRANCISCO (-)

CFB Saturday OVER the total in Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns @ 7 ET - Last year these teams met in Texas and the posted total on this game was 10 points more than the current total on this game which is in the 53.5 range as of early gameday morning. This total for this rematch Saturday is an absolute bargain for over players the way I see it. The defenses of each team were much stronger than this season's versions. Also, the offenses of each one of these teams look absolutely stacked this season. Alabama, as always, looks ultra lethal and has phenomenal skill. Texas brought back a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball and they, too, have extremely strong personnel at the skill positions. The fact is both these teams should move the ball here very well. I like the quarterbacks in this one. Remember, the Horns QB got hurt last season. Also, the Longhorns and Crimson Tide EACH put up nearly 400 yards of offense last season so the 20-19 final was a bit deceiving. The way I see this one playing out is that we should see this one get into the 60s for total points. There are no weather concerns, the offenses are stacked, and this one should turn into a back and forth battle. Two well-coached teams loaded with talent on offense. Both teams lost quite a bit from their defenses from last season. Keep in mind, both teams were a bit complacent last week in wins over weaker competition but the offenses will be aggressive this week and focused. The defenses were not challenged last week as they faced weaker competition. That changes in a hurry this week and these defenses, in my strong opinion, are a step behind the offenses early this season and that will show here. The defenses each facing major challenges this week and, between the two teams they lost 11 of 22 defensive starters. The final key is the line value here. There is no justification for this total being 10 points total than last year's. Not when you consider all of the above. I know last season's match-up finished as a solid under but you can see, per the above, it was a bit of phony final and we now take advantage because these two offenses are both set up perfectly to light things up here! 10* OVER the total in Alabama

CFB Saturday Ole Miss Rebels - points @ Tulane Green Wave @ 3:30 ET - Both teams off huge wins last week but Tulane did face the much tougher test but still it was impressive that Ole Miss scored 73 points unanswered after allowing a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play of the game! That said, from a technical standpoint, the Green Wave have not performed well in situations like this. They have failed to cover 6 of the last 7 times when they are home off a double digit ATS cover and are hosting a team that is off a straight-up win. Conversely, this situation sets up well for Ole Miss from a technical standpoint. The Rebels actually have covered nine straight times when they are favored by five or more points and facing a team off a win both SU and ATS. Outside of technical data here, I like the fact that Ole Miss had a great start last season and then faded late in the season. The Rebels have a little extra hunger here and will again do great in non-conference action this season. Of course the SEC the much tougher conference in comparison with the American Athletic Conference. That being said, this AAC team is off a great season but they lost quite a bit from that team and the Green Wave had a 2-win season the year before! In other words, Tulane is still a solid team but of course this is a program that is nowhere near the level of Ole Miss. I also feel the Rebels defense is improved entering this season while the Green Wave defense has taken a step back. This one could be close for awhile but eventually the visitors pull away. They simply have too much offense and are so stacked offensively and are well-coached and Tulane will not be able to keep up for the full 60 here. Wish we could lay less than a TD but I do expect the Rebels to win this by a double digit margin as that ATS streak I mentioned above reaches 10 straight wins! 10* Ole Miss Rebels - points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers + points @ Colorado Buffaloes @ Noon ET - There is some +3 still out there at the time of this posting though it looks like 2.5 could end up being the dominant number on this one. Either way, I like Nebraska as I am actually expecting an outright upset here so really I do not expect the points to be a factor. The Buffaloes are being anointed as title contenders now after just one game. Give credit to coach Sanders for having his guys ready and pulling off the massive upset of the Horned Frogs at TCU last week. However, it is one game! Now there is film out on this team. And guess what...the defense does NOT look good! They allowed over 540 yards to the Frogs last week! Conversely, the Cornhuskers allowed about 250 yards (less than HALF of what TCU allowed) as they fell just short at Minnesota. The Huskers know they should have won that game outright (they did cover ATS) and will be extra hungry for the outright win this week. Keep in mind, most everyone is sick of hearing about Colorado and coach "Prime" and this Cornhuskers defense will come to play and now there is film out on what the Buffaloes offense is capable of. The Huskers allowed just 55 rushing yards to a fantastic rushing team in Minnesota last week. Nebraska now faces a Buffs team that ran for only 55 yards last week. The Cornhuskers were done in by turnovers last week and keep in mind Coach Rhule is a solid coach with NFL experience too and he gives them a coaching edge here. Also, they actually ran for nearly 200 yards. So now we have a defensive-minded underdog with the rushing edge as well. I love spots like this and am going to challenge this over-hyped Colorado team to beat us through the air. Give coach Sanders and his group credit for the upset last week but things can change in a hurry in the college football world and that is particularly true of a new roster of players with a new coach that now has been introduced to the college football world. As they (unlike TCU) now have an idea of what is coming for them this week, one word describes the Cornhuskers here: READY! 10* NEBRASKA + points

Friday CFB 10* Top Play Kansas Jayhawks -3 vs Illinois Illini @ 7:30 ET - This is not the Kansas of old - not under head coach Leipold - no way! As for the Illini - coach Bielema has a poor history in road openers (or 1st neutral site game - anything away from home to start season) and he is 0-2 ATS here with Illinois already. Overall, Illinois is 0-4 ATS L4 years in road openers, the last two with Bielema at the helm. Last week the Illini were at home at home and were favored by nearly double digits against Toledo and yet were outgained and had to win the game on a field goal with just a few seconds left on the clock. I know the Jayhawks pulled away late in their win over FCS opponent Murray State but they also were without starting QB Jalon Daniels who I believe was held out of that game simply because coach Leipold felt they could easily beat the FCS Racers without him. They did end up ultimately winning 48-17 and Daniels is likely getting the start this week. Either way, I like the fact that the Jayhawks are returning one of the most experienced rosters in the country, Leipold is really starting to build something here, the Illini have Big Ten opener versus Penn State on deck, and Kansas has a situational edge factor since they have an extra day of rest (played Friday) plus are home again this week! The Illini are on a short week and have the Nittany Lions on deck plus they are traveling for this one! The Jayhawks have only a non-conference game at Nevada on deck so this is easily the most important early season game for them while the same can not be said for Illinois. This line was around a 4 and I know it may seem hard to trust the Jayhawks as a favorite but the fact the line has moved down to a 3 has me liking this one even more. This line is as of early Thursday morning for the Friday evening affair. Lets jump on it! 10* KANSAS -3

Thursday NFL 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Everyone is excited about the Lions this season and I am not saying they will not be better but I do feel they still have a ways to go - at least on defense. That said, the Chiefs have long been known for being tougher on defense when they are at home. So now start to dig deeper in this match-up and you will really see some value in this one! The Chiefs were favored originally by a touchdown here and the line was holding near 7 until the Travis Kelce injury. That has resulted in this line dropping to the 4.5 range as of early gameday morning. Even if Kelce does not play here, I still look for the Chiefs to roll here but I actually feel he will play and he will be fine. Plus consider the normal 3 point assessment given to home teams in the NFL. That means this line of 4.5 is saying the Lions are very nearly as good as the Lions on a neutral field. Now ask yourself, if this was the Super Bowl and the Lions were meeting the Chiefs - this would be neutral field of course - would the line really be nearly a pick'em? Of course not! This line has been over-adjusted because of the early season hype on the Lions and the Kelce injury situation. Our job is to find value situations like this and take advantage and we'll do just that here! Yes the Lions finished last season hot with an 8-2 run but has anyone bothered to look at who they played? Remember teams play 17 games now and Detroit's 10-game run only featured two teams that ended up with more than 9 wins on the season. Against those two teams, the Lions beat the Vikings but lost to the Bills. Again, I will say Detroit is improved and they have a solid offense but I don't trust this defense and I don't think they march into Arrowhead on opening night and get a win. The Lions 4 road losses last season were by an average margin of defeat of 16 points! I love playing dogs and I love upsets but sometimes laying the points is absolutely the way to go and this is a fantastic value play here! 10* KANSAS CITY -4.5

CFB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Jose State Spartans vs Oregon State Beavers @ 3:30 ET - This Oregon State team is coming off a very strong season in which the defense really carried them especially late in the season. However, just like last season I expect the defense to struggle a little early on particularly on the road as that was the case last season and they were even stronger personnel-wise. The Beavers still have a solid defense but they lost many of their starters from last year's defense and there is going to be a breaking-in process. If the Spartans were at Corvallis for this one I might have concerns but not at home. This offense will play well again this week and they are in front of their home fans. Yes, the USC defense they faced last week has some question marks but do you realize that the Trojans had only ONE more first down than San Jose State did in that game? My concern with the Spartans, as has been the case in many recent seasons, is I don't trust the defense. Those concerns were proven justified last week as the Trojans rolled up 56 points in the win. However, this Spartans offense can play. They will still lose this game the way I see it but I am predicting the margin of defeat to be around 14 - very close to the number on this game. I am expecting the Spartans to be able to trade scores with the Beavers for much of this game and then eventually down 7 late they give up another TD to lose by 14 or they are down 10 and lose by 17. The point is offense will be the story here. The Beavers offense looks even stronger this season as they have QB DJ Uiagalelei to lead the way and he is coming into this season with a chip on his shoulder and will be out to prove some things. He has a great offensive line in front of him as well as the weapons around him to accomplish the task. He and the Beavers talented skill position players will carve up the Spartans defense. This total opened higher and has dropped to a 54 which means even more value here in a game I project to get into the 60s. 10* OVER the total in San Jose State

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks (+) points vs North Carolina Tar Heels @ 7:30 ET in Charlotte, NC - This is a neutral site game and the current dominant line across all sports books as of gameday morning is 2.5 and I am grabbing the dog here. I like the fact the ranked team, North Carolina, is laying such a short number. I also like the way a few of the books I few as sharp are pricing this game. This has me lining up on what I feel is the sharp side which is also heavily based on what I like in terms of the match-up here too of course. The Gamecocks have really responded well under head coach Shane Beamer (yes he is the son of long-time former head coach Frank Beamer). South Carolina is building some continuity here in the program with Beamer and they finished last season very strong and I feel they will carry that momentum right into this season. Their passing attack is a strength now and QB Spencer Rattler is getting more and more comfortable here as he showed late last season. He will lead the way here against a Tar Heels defense that essentially lost their entire secondary from last season so you are talking about new starters here at key positions in the back of the defense. North Carolina had a lot of question marks in the off-season with a lot going on in the transfer portal including all the uncertainty involving the starting QB. Though he eventually decided to stay it says a lot about this program and that it is a bit shaky right now when I look at their coaching and personnel situations. I feel strongly that the Gamecocks are in better shape to hit the ground running early this season. North Carolina should improve as the season goes on but there is a reason this ranked team is hardly favored here in Week 1 and I love the points in this spot. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs West Virginia Mountaineers @ 7:30 ET - This total has been dropping and is now all the way down to a 48.5 as of early gameday morning. I love fading line moves like this and feel we have excellent line value here. The Nittany Lions do have a strong defense and I am well aware of this but the Mountaineers games averaged in about the mid-60s last season. West Virginia has a strong offensive line and a solid backfield and could surprise some on offense here. The issue for the Mountaineers is their defense is still a weakness and this is another Neal Brown team that will likely be mired in mediocrity as a result. They should score a few touchdowns here though, even if one is in garbage time but Penn State is a massive favorite for a reason. Yes, the Nittany Lions have a new quarterback but he is highly touted and some even projected he could even be a top choice in the NFL draft at QB in the future. Drew Allar has a lot of talent around him too at the skill positions on this Nittany Lions offense so don't be surprised if they pile it on here as this game goes on. The weather is going to be very pleasant in Happy Valley this evening and the State College crowd should have plenty to cheer about in this one. With only Delaware on deck for PSU, the Lions full focus has been on this game and they should pile up the points here. I am not fond of laying 3 TD lines very often and I am not in this case either but the over is a great way to play a game that could land around 41 to 20 the way I see it! 10* OVER the total in Penn State

CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (-) vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 7:30 ET in Atlanta, Georgia - Technically the Yellow Jackets have the home field edge here but it is a neutral site game at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line was originally around 10 and I was hoping we would see it tick down to an even 7 but it has been stuck at 7.5 across the board at the time of this write-up. I feel that is actually a positive sign for us if you will. The fact is the sharp action would come flying in too hard on a 7 and the books are not willing to go there, at least not yet. I say sharp money because the fact is this Louisville team is too strong for Georgia Tech. Look at statistics from last season and it already shows that overall, the Cardinals were already the stronger team. Then when you look at what has transpired with each team in the off-season and the Cards appear much more poised than the Jackets to hit the ground running with strong play this season. Plummer will be the QB and he is off a strong season at Cal and before that was at Purdue where Cardinals head coach Brohm was as well so there is already familiarity for him here working in this offense. This is a great match and their ground game, with Jordan leading the way, will run all over a GT defense that struggles to stop the run. I know Louisville lost quite a bit from the defensive side of the ball but Georgia Tech has a new offensive coordinator and a new QB to run it with King (previously unimpressive at A & M) under center. The Yellow Jackets will have more growing pains than the Cardinals early this season. 10* LOUISVILLE - points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (- points) vs Florida Gators @ 8 ET - This is a revenge game from last season when Utah lost the game late. However, revenge is certainly not the only factor but it certainly does not hurt either! The real value here is because of Utah QB Cameron Rising being out for this game. The key is that the back-up has experience and will be just fine here plus we have seen a line drop from near double digits to now a 4.5 as of gameday morning. The Utes should roll to a big win here as they have much more in the way of returning experience here than the Gators. Also, last season's meeting was in Florida and now this one is in the thin air of Utah and the altitude edge can be a factor for a team like the Gators that hardly ever has to deal with it. For the Utes it certainly is nothing new. I look for the experience edge, home field factor, revenge factor, and line value to all play a role in this one being an ATS victory for us as a win by at least a TD margin is in the cards for the Utes the way I see it. Keep in mind, this line plummeted right past the key number of 7 so the value added is certainly noticeable! Though Cameron Rising is a strong QB the fact is Bryson Barnes has experience already and has a great team around him with which to work and then the other QB option (also could see some snaps) is a guy with dangerous legs! Nate Johnson is a guy loaded with speed and that makes him tough to defend when he is under center as well. 10* UTAH (- points)

Rotation #302 Saturday CFB 10* New Mexico State Aggies -7 vs Massachusetts Minutemen @ 7 ET - Of course the point spread is, and must, be a factor but lets first talk about some facts in terms of straight-up records. UMass has lost 24 straight road games! The Minutemen have covered just 6 times in their last 23 road games. UMass is again projected to be one of the worst teams in the nation. New Mexico State has won 6 of last 7 games including their bowl game last season. This team is really responding well under head coach Jerry Kill and I also like the fact they are at home for this one and want to avoid the slow start they had out of the gate last season. The Aggies are much better than the Minutemen and I also like the fact this line opened up around double digits but has come down to the TD mark. Laying 7 points here is something I am very comfortable with and hopefully the line will stay no higher than 7. Either way, lay it with this one and it would not surprise me if this game got steamed as the day goes along Saturday so note this line could rise back up. A lot of lines do that in football. They'll fall in the days coming into game day and then start moving back toward where they came from when the sharps start rolling in with bigger bets on gameday. The fact is the Aggies have won each of the last two meetings by double digits and I expect a similar result here. They are the more talented and more cohesive group and they have an altitude edge at home also plus this is a long road trip for a bad UMass team. 10* NEW MEXICO STATE -7

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles Money Line -120 vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 6:30 ET - The Eagles are hearing all the critics for sure and will play this game with a chip on their shoulder and with a little extra fire burning as well. The word on the street is that Sirianni has no chance coaching against Reid in this one. Additionally, the naysayers are saying Hurts has no chance to outduel Mahomes in this one. It is funny because these critics must not be watching the same games I have been watching. The Eagles are a high-quality team that is so strong in the trenches plus has a pair of wide receivers and a tight end that have combined for over 3,400 yards and 21 receiving touchdowns. Yet, per most "experts" out there, Hurts is only a running quarterback that can't beat you with his arm. Really I am not kidding you that some have this belief. Hurts is a gamer. This Eagles team can run on you like crazy too including Hurts of course but the fact is he can - and will - beat teams through the air. Yes the Chiefs are, of course, a high quality team. But the Eagles have a fantastic pass rush and Mahomes' ankle is unlikely to be 100 percent here. He could be having to run around more than he wants to back there as well as the Eagles pass rush is fantastic. Mahomes played in every game this season and the Chiefs lost 3 games in which Mahomes was under center. Conversely, the Eagles had only 1 of their 3 losses happen in a game Hurts played. The Eagles divisional foes were a combined 22-11 in non-divisional games. The Chiefs divisional foes were 15-18 in non-divisional games. The point is the NFC East was much tougher than the AFC West this season and, overall, I feel strongly the Eagles are a bit under-valued in this one especially considering Mahomes high ankle sprain. The line here as of Friday afternoon of Super Bowl weekend is mostly 1.5 everywhere. Considering we can get the money line as low as -120 in this one, the value is definitely with the money line in this situation. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs Money Line -120 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 6:30 ET - Just do not want to get burned here if the Chiefs win by just 1 point because the dominant line right now on this game is 1.5 but the money line is available as low as -120 on KC as of very early game day morning. Finally the offensive line issue of Cincinnati will finally become too much in this one. The Chiefs are too smart and too well coached to not take advantage of this. I know that the Bengals beat them in the regular season in Cincy and that they beat them last year in the OT thriller in the playoffs but if I am a Chiefs player I would be saying "enough is enough" here. I mean this has been very surprising to me how for Cincinnati has come but I just can not see them making the Super Bowl again this season. It is so hard to do. So many things have to fall into place. Like I said, this is the game where the offensive line issues for the Bengals finally become too much. Mahomes is feeling better than he thought he would with the high ankle sprain. Kelce will be fine with his back spasms back under control. The end result is a well-coached KC team is going to the Super Bowl as Mahomes will outduel Joe Burrow here. Enough is enough! The Chiefs were aware they were even a DOG in this match-up for a period of time even though they are at home for this. These guys feel a bit a disrespected and this could be Chiefs dominance here in my opinion. 10* KANSAS CITY -120

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs San Francicsco 49ers @ 3 ET - You might be fortunate enough to still find a -2 out there or perhaps even at heavy juice but, of course, would be preferable to lay 2 rather than 2.5 or 3 here. Another option here is the money line available as low as -145 instead of laying juice in the -125 range on the spread anyway! No matter which you choose, I do like the Eagles a lot in this spot and expect them to win by a double digit margin. Philadelphia sleep-walked a bit late in the season but then they showed what they can do when they are motivated as they destroyed the Giants last week. Yes the 49ers are better than the Giants but keep in mind that there is another edge here in that the Eagles entered the game against the Giants off a bye week. So Philly will be playing just the 2nd time in 3 weeks and it is amazing what time off can do for a team both mentally and physically at this late juncture in the season (including playoffs). Keep in mind the 49ers had a very tough game with Dallas last week but the Cowboys Dak Prescott gifted San Francisco the game on a silver platter by turning the ball over. It was pathetic to see that again but, oh well, this is the way of Dallas! Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are NOT the same as Prescott and the Cowboys that is for sure. Also, 49ers rookie QB Brock Purdy will be facing a tough test in a hostile environment here. Keep in mind, the Eagles will take advantage of a Niners team playing just its third true road game since late October. Since the end of October they had a neutral site game versus Arizona and two road games against Seahawks and Raiders. Those two teams finished the season a combined 15-20 including post-season and that pales in comparison to facing the Eagles in hostile Philly as they are now 15-3 including post-season this season. Because of all the hype about Purdy, this line has been kept lower than it should be. Here we take advantage! Purdy has never faced an NFL situation like this ever and the games at Seattle and Las Vegas will be nothing like how this one will be for the rookie quarterback. 10* PHILADELPHIA -2.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +4.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 6:30 ET - The Giants, including post-season, went 10-8-1 this season. What does that have to do with this bet? Quite a lot actually! I will explain. New York lost all 3 games to the Eagles and both games to the Cowboys this season. The NFC East was a very tough division this year. The Giants only lost 3 of their other 14 games against teams not named Dallas or Philadelphia. The 49ers, on the other hand, have padded their overall record thanks to playing in the NFC West. Including last week's win over the Seahawks in the Wild Card round, the Niners went 7-0 against divisional foes. That is how weak the division was this season while the NFC East is very likely to have a representative as 3 of the 4 NFC teams left entering this week were all from that division! This is no fluke. They were the strongest division in the league this season. Now Dallas is not getting enough respect here. Prescott is back and firing strong again, Purdy is still a rookie, and the Niners have faced a lot of weaker defenses since Purdy as been under center. This is going to be his first truly tough test. Prescott, on the other hand, has more of a "been there and done that" mentality. Especially after convincingly picking up a road playoff win (finally!), this Dallas team is rolling with confidence right now. I really like Purdy and wish him all the best in his NFL career but he is still a rookie and in last week's playoff game he faced a Seahawks defense that would finish the season, including that post-season game, allowing 30 ppg on the road for the season! Now in just his 2nd playoff start he faces a Cowboys defense that has allowed 19 ppg in 9 road games (including post-season). I am expecting a highly intriguing Eagles/Cowboys NFC Championship next week but, as added insurance here, I am going to go ahead and grab the points. I feel if Niners find a way to win this it will be by the slimmest of margins. 10* DALLAS COWBOYS +4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 3 ET - Bengals have injury issues on the offensive line. These are big issues. People take notice when key star players are out for teams but many do not pay such close attention to injuries in the trenches and yet those are very important. The issues become particularly troublesome for a team when it becomes a cluster of injuries all to the same unit. In this case, Cincinnati is without both starting tackles and a starting guard. That means 60% of their offensive line is out for this game! The Bengals will struggle to stop the Bills defense from pressuring them all game long in this one. As a result, Cincinnati just can not keep up here because you know the Bills are going to get their points here at home. Buffalo has averaged 32 points per game in home games this season! Cincinnati has allowed an average of 24 ppg last 6 road games. Only one of those 6 games was against a team that ended the season with a wining record. That was Pittsburgh (ended year 9-8) and the Steelers hung 30 on the Bengals. This one turns into a home rout because I know the Bills defense is fully capable of bouncing back big at home after last week's tight win versus Miami. Buffalo entered last week's action having allowed 17 points per game in games played here in Orchard Park this season. 10* BUFFALO -5.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles -7 or -7.5 vs New York Giants @ 8:15 ET - You might be fortunate enough to still find a -7 out there or perhaps even at heavy juice but, of course, would be preferable to lay 7 rather than 7.5 or 8 here. Either way, I do like the Eagles a lot in this spot and expect them to win by a double digit margin. Philadelphia sleep-walked a bit late in the season but now they catch the Giants on a short week and traveling again. Plus the Eagles are off a bye week. I know Philly did not look good against New York two weeks ago. But it is amazing what time off can do for a team both mentally and physically at this late juncture in the season (including playoffs). Keep in mind the Giants had a very tough game with Minnesota last week and that was on Sunday. Now they have to play the Eagles on Saturday and they face them at Philly. The Eagles will take advantage of a Giants team playing a road game for the 4th time in 5 weeks. I know New York has amazing ATS numbers this season but that is also perhaps why they are a little over-valued here, at least in my opinion. New York has not won B2B games since mid-October! Prior to the upset win at Minnesota in the Wild Card round, the Giants had won only 3 of last 10 games! Also, their 6 losses in this stretch came by an average margin of nearly a dozen points per game! The Eagles led their regular season finale game 19-0 before Giants crawled back into it. Yes that game deserves an asterisk since NY played back-ups but what about the prior meeting? The Eagles won 48-22 and that game was at New York and Philly will have a much more robust game plan here than they did in the match-up two weeks ago. Hurts is now in better health and, of course, this game matters a whole lot more. Eagles pull away as this game goes on and they will not let the Giants back into this one! 10* PHILADELPHIA -7 or -7.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 or -9 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 4:30 ET - Not going to write a ton here. The Jaguars rallied from a 27 point deficit against some of the worst coaching in NFL history by the Chargers last week. The week before that Jacksonville beat a Titans team that was down to #3 choice at QB but also were outgained by more than 100 yards in that one. To put it mildly, the Jags are very fortunate to be here. Now they take on a rested Chiefs team that is one of the best in the NFL plus is at home. Also, KC beat Jacksonville by 10 points when these teams met two weeks ago but it could have been much more. Imagine how much KC would have won the game by were it not for a 3-0 turnover deficit! The Jaguars luck runs out here and the Chiefs hammer them by a double digit margin. 10* KANSAS CITY -8.5 or -9

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys -2.5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:15 ET - Much has been made of the Cowboys dismal effort at Washington last week and that it cost them a shot at the NFC East title and at home field edge had both the Niners and Eagles lost last week. However, both San Francisco and Philadelphia were huge favorites last week. Both SF and Philly were motivated to win and they did just that. The point is that the Cowboys went into last week's game sluggish because they knew the handwriting was on the wall. Dallas knew they were going to be on the road this week and they are both mentally as well as physically prepared for this game. The Cowboys actually should, and probably do, feel fortunate that they avoided two tougher teams in the Seahawks and Niners. The NFC West much tougher than the NFC South and Tampa Bay won their division despite having a losing record! I am not sold on the Bucs this season and I know they have beaten Dallas in the season opener each of the past two years. But this time it is different and we are getting value here with the Cowboys as a short road favorite. They are hands down the better team without a doubt. That said, we get line value because many know of a couple perfect angles here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am FADING these angles. The Cowboys have lost 8 straight playoff road games AND Tom Brady is 7-0 in his career against Dallas. Both of those records will be history when this one goes into the books. Cowboys roll on the road. 10* DALLAS -2.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +8.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - The Ravens did not even care about winning last week's game and rested starters and yet still outgained the Bengals 386 to 257 in that 11 point loss! A key reason they lost was two interceptions but I do expect Huntley to be back at QB for this one after he was fully involved in practice Friday. Of course Jackson is still out but this time it should be Huntley at QB rather than Brown. Also, even with resting some other starters last week the Ravens still significantly outgained the Bengals. I feel strongly that this Ravens defense, which seemed to get stronger and stronger as the season went along, is going to make a key difference in this game. That is not to say that the Bengals defense is not also solid. However, the key is that the Bengals are GIVING 8.5 points here unlike the Ravens who are GETTING 8.5 points here. So don't lay it, take it...grab those points as these division rivals are going to be in a fierce battle in this game in my strong opinion and I honestly would not be shocked at an outright upset. 10* BALTIMORE +8.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +3 @ Minnesota Vikings @ 4:40 ET - Vikings are 13-4. Minnesota went 8-1 in home games. They are hosting a Wild Card team that finished 3rd in their 4-team division. Also, the Giants went just 4-4 on the road and only 4-7-1 in games against NFC teams. Yet the line here is a 3 even though Vikings are at home. What does that tell you? Exactly! Do not let this number fool you. It looks so easy to take Minnesota here but the Giants are going to be taking on the Eagles next week because New York is going to win this game as the Vikings luck finally runs out. I am going to take the 3 points here (just in case) but I do fully expect an outright upset here as the Vikings have been playing with fire all season long and this is the time it burns them. The Giants lost to the Vikings on a 61-yard field goal in the prior meeting this season but Vikes 33-yard drive that set up the long field goal was preceded by them getting outgained by 125 yards on the day and that game was here in Minnesota too. The Giants have the better defense and I love the ground game with Saquon Barkley too. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers -2 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - The Jaguars were 3-14 last season. I know they have had a huge turnaround but this team was sitting at 4-8 this season before they won 5 straight to reach this game. So who did they face in the 5-game run? A Tennessee team that lost 7 straight to end the season and was a shell of itself when the Jaguars faced them. The Jags faced the Titans twice. They did get a tight OT win at Dallas but then the other 2 wins were over the Jets and Texans. The Jets finished the season falling apart and on a 6-game slide. The Texans were 3-13-1 this season. The point is that the Jaguars season-ending run is not as impressive when you take a closer look. I like the fact that the Chargers, prior to the meaningless loss at Denver in the regular season that did not matter to LA, had gone 5-2 SU last 7 road games. The Chargers know how to win on the road and you will see people lining up on the red hot Jaguars here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of this one and grabbing LA. The Chargers take advantage of a Jags team that was outgained significantly in a must-win game last week versus Titans. Tennessee was a wounded team at the end of the season and still deserved to win last week's game were it not for key turnovers that proved to be the difference. Jacksonville is lucky just to be here and had to fight hard last week to get here. They are in trouble against an LA team that was resting guys last week. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -2

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 42 in San Francisco vs Seattle @ 4:35 ET - The total in the first meeting was set at 40.5 and landed on 34 points. The total in the second meeting this season was set at 43 and landed on 34 points. The point is that each game stayed under the total and now this is "playoff football" and yet the odds makers have stayed firm with, once AGAIN, a total in the low 40s here. You think someone knows something? Exactly! This one is going over the total! The Niners have won 10 straight games and scored an average of 30 points during this stretch! The Seahawks are off a tight low-scoring OT win over the Rams in season finale but had scored at least 23 points in 10 of their 14 games before that. Again, the key here is that this total is priced this way for a reason. Look for more points than most are expecting in this one. 10* OVER 42 in San Francisco

CFB Monday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -12.5 vs TCU Horned Frogs @ 7:30 ET - My money is on Georgia here as their defense responds after rare sub-par performances recently. The Bulldogs, prior to SEC Championship, had played 12 games in the regular season. Georgia never allowed more than 22 points in a game and their average points allowed was half that at just 11 per game! The Horned Frogs have a solid pass defense but the Bulldogs strength is their ground game on offense and I expect them to run all over TCU in this one. That plus the championship experience edge the Dawgs have gives them a huge edge here. Remember what I said about the Bulldogs defense above? Well the TCU defense has allowed 24 points or more in 10 of their last 12 games. Essentially the opposite of the Georgia defensive performance! In those 10 games, the Horned Frogs allowed an average of 31.6 points per game. I would not be surprised if TCU hangs around early in this one but eventually the strength, power, experience edges for the Bulldogs allow them to pull away in this one. 10* GEORGIA -12.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -4.5 vs Detroit Lions @ 8:20 ET - Home field edge. Cold weather edge (Lions are a dome team). QB edge too with the experience of Rodgers over the young Goff who could struggle in hostile environment and cold conditions here. Another hidden factor here, and I like this play either way, is the strong possibility that the Lions will be eliminated from playoff race before this game even kicks off. Even if that indeed happens because Seahawks beat the Rams, one could correctly argue that the Lions will still be motivated to prevent a division rival from making the playoffs. However, no one can argue it will not be the same positive attitude for this game if Seattle wins in the action that will wrap up before this game even kicks off. That said, I like the Packers here and I like them no matter what happens in the earlier action. Keep in mind, the Pack have revenge here too because they lost at Detroit earlier this season despite having a huge yardage edge as Rodgers had a rare bad game against the Lions. Yes Detroit is off a great defensive effort last week but it was against a bad Bears offense. The week prior the Lions allowed nearly 600 yards of offense to the Panthers! The Lions have been hot but the Packers have too with 4 straight wins and GB has the better defense too. This one should get ugly in favor of the revenging home team with everything to play for in this one! 10* GREEN BAY -4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +14.5 @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:25 ET - The good news for San Francisco is if they win this game they still have a shot at the #1 seed in the post-season. The bad news? They also need Eagles to lose for that to happen. Philadelphia is creeping up toward being a 17 point favorite over the Giants. The Giants are resting a lot of starters including QB Daniel Jones and their starting QB will be Davis Webb. In other words, the Niners are not stupid and they realize the Eagles are highly unlikely to lose today as they also welcome back Jalen Hurts from injury and, again, New York is essentially tanking for that game as they are locked into playoff position. All that said, the 49ers know they are therefore essentially locked into playoff position too. Sure they will come out to win this game but this is in their psyche and certainly there is no extra motivation to win this game by any kind of massive margin. That said, now that this line has crept all the way up to 14.5 it is absolutely "go time" with the big underdog Cardinals here. David Blough played quite well at QB for the Cards last week. Also, sounds like this will be last game of career for future HOFer JJ Watt so you know the Arizona defense wants to go out strong here too. Just don't see the Niners winning this game by much of a margin. Note that SF has won 9 straight but of the last 8 wins, 4 of them were by 8 or less points. The Cardinals, since getting blown out in Week 1 of the season by KC, has only 1 loss last 16 games by more than 14 points and that was against the 49ers in Mexico City! Payback time here. Grab the generous points in this one! 10* ARIZONA +14.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 in New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers @ 1 ET - Great end of season spot for an over. Both teams eliminated from playoff contention but Saints trying to avoid a 10-loss season and Panthers badly want to win this for coach Wilks. Carolina QB Darnold through for over 340 yards and 3 TDs last week but looks to cut down on turnovers here. New Orleans QB Dalton is a veteran and facing a Panthers secondary dealing with a lot of injuries right now. Keep in mind, there is no playoff pressure here either so both teams want to win but also can play loose and relaxed. In a season finale that has variables like this (plus the fact no weather concerns since game in a dome) you have the perfect set-up for a high-scoring shootout! The Saints last 7 home games (including the one in London as designated host) they have scored at least 21 points in 6 of the games. Those 6 games have seen New Orleans average 27 points scored per game! The Panthers are averaging 26 points per game since Darnold took over at QB the last 5 games. Carolina, however, has also allowed an average of 24 points per game last 4 games. This total is closer to 40 than 50 but you can see why I am expecting the latter as a likely total for points scored and I will grab the excellent line value here in what should shape up as a shootout at the Caesars Superdome. 10* OVER 41.5 in New Orleans

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +6.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - The Titans have lost 6 straight games and the Jaguars have won 4 straight games. No need to even play this game, right? It's over before it even starts? The division title belongs to the Jags by default? Fortunately for the Titans none of that holds true. Tennessee gets their shot here and I love fading the masses which will give the underdogs no chance here. Keep in mind, this is the Jaguars we are talking about ladies and gentlemen. I know they are better than they use to be but they are no juggernauts and Joshua Dobbs actually played quite well at QB for the Titans last week. He certainly is a major upgrade over the struggling Malik Willis as Tennessee continues to battle without the injured Ryan Tannehill. The key here is that Dobbs can manage the game, Derek Henry can have a huge ground game for the Titans, and I like the Tennessee defense (3 turnovers last week) over the Jags defense. Keep in mind, the Titans only two bad defensive performances on the road this season were against two of the best teams (Bills and Eagles) in the entire league. In their other 6 road games, Jacksonville has allowed just 15.8 ppg in regulation time of those 6 games. Jaguars had rare big win over the Titans when these teams met last month. Note that the Jaguars have won their last two games over a 2-13-1 Texans team and a Jets team that had quit on the season. Certainly there is not quit in the Titans in a "win and you're in" game here. Prior to those two wins the Jags allowed 30 ppg their last 5 games. To put that in proper perspective, prior to allowing 27 points to Dallas last week, the Titans had allowed more than 22 points only TWO times in last 13 games! Give me the big points with a very hungry road dog! 10* TENNESSEE +6.5

CFB Monday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5 vs Utah Utes @ 5 ET - The Big Ten was particularly tough this season and sent 9 teams to bowl games. Entering Monday's action, 6 had already played and they went 4-2 SU with the one of those two losses being Ohio State losing to the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs by 1 point. by the way, the other Big Team that played in a CFP Semi-Final game was Michigan and they fell just short against TCU. The reason I emphasize this is because the Buckeyes and Wolverines were the only two teams to beat Penn State this season. Keep in mind those two schools had a chance to advance to the National Championship and each fell only just short against the best quality in all of CFB. The Pac-12, on the other hand, had more teams ranked but their quality was not as high as the teams like Michigan and Ohio State. Utah lost to Florida this season and the Gators did not even end up with a winning record. The Utes also lost to UCLA and Oregon. Note that UCLA just got upset by Pittsburgh in the bowls and Oregon barely snuck by a North Carolina team that has a bad defense. The Utes are a high quality program for sure but the point is that the two losses PSU had to Michigan and Ohio State should serve them well here and those were two of the top four programs in the nation this season. Utah has been hit harder by opt-outs than the Lions heading into this one and also the edge in special teams play goes to the Nittany Lions. 10* PENN STATE +1.5 

CFB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 54 in LSU Tigers vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 1 ET - The number on this total has dropped out due to key opt-outs for Purdue. However, LSU is still a two TD favorite and supposed to win this game in blowout fashion. This is still a Boilermakers team that will have plenty of weapons at hand. This is still a Tigers defense that proved susceptible at times. This is still a pair of offenses that average over 400 yards of offense per game. The interim head coach for the Boilermakers is the QB coach and don't be surprised if back-up QB Burton has a big game as the Boilers look to make up for the absence of QB O'Connell. The point is that the fact the interim HC is the QB coach means you know he has already been working closely with Burton and all the extra prep time for this game he'll be good to go. As noted above, the Tigers defense had some bad moments this season. The point is that I am looking for a lot of fireworks on offense in this one. In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move on the total here. 5 of last 7 Tigers games totaled more than 60 points. This one should too! 10* OVER 54 in LSU

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 35 in Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - Both these teams, and particularly Baltimore, have been trending under. However, there is more than meets the eye here and sometimes you'll just end up with situations like this where it is a "value in the number" type of situation. That is what we have here! This total would normally be in the low 40s but is currently in the mid-30s because of the situation with each team right now. Jackson is out at QB for the Ravens and Pittsburgh is known for struggling quite often on offense but still has a respectable defense. That said though, look at the number on this total compared to some key numbers for each team this season and you'll see why this total is too low. Steelers playing their 9th road game of the season and 7 of the first 8 totaled at least 35 points! Ravens home games have trended under recently but their first 4 home games this season totaled an average of 50.5 ppg! Overall, Baltimore's last 4 games have totaled 30 or less points but this followed a stretch in which 9 of 10 prior games had totaled at least 35 points. This total is just too low and unseasonably mild and pleasant weather with light winds expected in Baltimore for this one as well. 10* OVER 35 in Baltimore

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Green Bay Packers -3 vs Minnesota Vikings @ 4:25 ET - First off some line analysis will tell you why, from a contrarian standpoint, I absolutely love this play. The Packers are a 3-point home favorite here and, as we know, the average home team allotment for home field edge is 3 points. So this line is telling us these teams are equal. Yet when you look at the records, the Vikings are 12-3 and the Packers are 7-8 which is hardly equal of course! That said, many will be lining up on Minnesota to take advantage of this "mistake" here. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the Packers! The Vikings are a quality team for sure but they have been so fortunate in tight games this season too plus Green Bay has revenge here from losing at Minnesota earlier this season. Also, the Packers have covered 14 of 22 in divisional games and are on a solid 9-4 ATS run as a home favorite. The Vikings are on a 1-7 ATS run in divisional games in which they are a road dog. Look for the Pack to get their revenge and Minnesota's incredible string of luck finally runs out as they get hammered on the road here. 10* GREEN BAY -3

NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 vs New Orleans Saints @ 1 ET - The Eagles are still without QB Jalen Hurts but he has resumed practicing. That means he is closer to a return but the Eagles want to wait as long as they can to bring him back. After falling apart late in the loss at Dallas on Christmas Eve coupled with Minnesota continuing to win, this is a very important game for Philly. they do not want to go into the final game still needing a win to lock up the #1 seed. The Eagles would rather be resting guys. That being said, I do not see them being denied here at home in this one. Gander Minshew did throw for a lot of yardage last week and will cut down on the turnovers here. The Eagles will run all over the Saints here at home. Philly has covered 10 of last 11 as a home favorite. Keep in mind, New Orleans is on a 2-5 ATS run in games played away from home and also they did get roughed up here at Philly last season. More of the same in store here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -5.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Georgia Bulldogs -5.5 vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8 ET - The Buckeyes have had a great season but they were losing to Penn State with 9 minutes to go, then got outgained by Northwestern even though they won the game by 14 points, and were only ahead of Maryland by 3 points until a late explosion in the final MINUTE of the game. They then got hammered by Michigan in their final regular season game. So the point is that 4 of the last 5 games involving Ohio State were not so impressive. The Buckeyes were not the same dominating force we saw in the first 7 games of the season. Now they face the defending champions and the Bulldogs are going to pull away as this game goes on. Georgia allowing only 12.8 ppg this season and their strong ground game on offense as well as their fantastic rush defense on the other side of the ball will prove to be the difference in the trenches as this game goes along. The Bulldogs won and covered both games in last year's post-season and both wins were by double digits. The Buckeyes are just 3-3 SU/ATS last 6 games in the CFB playoff match-ups. Ohio State is a high-quality team ot say the least but I just do not see the Dawgs being denied here and like them to win this game by at least a touchdown. 10* GEORGIA -5.5

Bowl Saturday 8* TCU Horned Frogs +8.5 vs Michigan Wolverines @ 4 ET - The Wolverines are undefeated but I just can not ignore the lousy track record of coach Harbaugh in big games including bowl games. Also, about Michigan, they were up by only 5 points with less than 7 minutes to go against a mediocre Maryland team in a game that they eventually won by 7 points and that game was at Ann Arbor. Though they did eventually pull away against Penn State and there is no arguing they deserved the big win, the Nittany Lions did have a 3rd quarter lead in that one in 3rd quarter. Also, they had to rally in the 4th quarter of the win over Illinois and again this was a home game for them. Of course at 13-0 and with plenty of dominating wins, the Wolverines are a very strong team. But I like getting more than a TD with a Horned Frogs team that has had a huge season and has prevailed against all odds all season long. I don't see why that would change here. Yes they lost the Big 12 Championship - though in OT - but still had a huge season and that loss was by just 3 points. With a dynamic offense, look for the Horned Frogs to hang around all game long in this one too. I just don't see Michigan winning this one by more than 1 score. Also, an outright upset certainly would not shock me. All the pressure to win here is on Michigan and that is dangerous. The Horned Frogs could prove to be the much more relaxed team and that will pay dividends. 8* TCU +8.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 61 in Tennessee Volunteers vs Clemson Tigers @ 8 ET - Because the starting QB's are out for each team this total is lower than it would otherwise be. The key here is that each of these teams has back-up quarterbacks that are very capable of carrying solid offensive units that have surrounded them with great weapons. So the point is we are still likely to see plenty of points here and we can take advantage of a total that is lower than it should be. The Volunteers average over 500 yards of offense per game and the Tigers defense can certainly be tough but this is a Tennessee team that averaged 47 ppg this season! As for Clemson, they have a very talented offense that will be attacking a Volunteers that struggled badly against the pass this season. Tigers will thrown all over the Vols and Tennessee will want (and is fully capable) to do the same in return. In true road games, Clemson D had one strong one at Boston College but allowed 36 ppg in the other 3 games. This is a neutral site game of course but you get the point. Tigers D not as impressive when not on their own turf and I like this Volunteers offense but, again, their defense gets shredded here. 10* OVER 61 in Tennessee

CFB Friday 10* Top Play South Carolina Gamecocks +4 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 3:30 ET - I really like the way Spencer Rattler played late in the season and, overall, the way the Gamecocks played in earning a couple of upset wins late in the year as well. This South Carolina team has a ton of momentum plus they have their starting quarterback here. Conversely, the Fighting Irish closed the season with a disappointing loss plus they lost QB Drew Pyne so they will be using little-used Buchner in this match-up as he has been out much of the season. The Gamecocks enter this one on a 7-2 SU / ATS run. The Fighting Irish enter this game on a 5-2 SU run but 1 of those wins by just 3 points so only 4 of last 7 games were wins by more than the margin on this game and, again, this is a tough spot facing an SEC team that has the QB edge in a big way. I like the momentum of Rattler and the Gamecocks and the fact we are getting more than a field goal here. 10* SOUTH CAROLINA +4

Bowl Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 67.5 in Texas Longhorns vs Washington Huskies @ 9 ET - The Longhorns will be without their two top running backs here. QB Quinn Ewers is due for a bounce back game after some last season struggles and I expect a heavy dose of the passing attack as the Horns running back choices will be their #3 and #4 guys. I still look for UT to be able to move the ball well on the ground here but look for the key to be Ewers taking advantage of a weak Huskies pass defense. As for the Washington offense, they should enjoy plenty of success as well. QB Michael Penix leads a Huskies offense that ranks among the best in the nation. Even though Texas has a solid defense, they are without a top linebacker here plus the Huskies offense is just too good and the Longhorns have struggled to stop high-quality offenses at times this season. Note that UT, before a big revenging win late in the season at Kansas, did allow 35 points per game in their 3 prior road games at Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. The Huskies also allowed an average of 35 points per game in their 5 road games this season. So, the point is, there is plenty of reason to expect both teams to move the ball very well throughout this game in the controlled environment of the Alamodome in San Antonio in this Alamo Bowl battle Thursday. 10* OVER 67.5 in Texas

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans +12.5 vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Cowboys rallied for the win last week versus Eagles but the key in the game was 4 Philly turnovers and they were a bit banged up including missing starting QB Hurts yet Philadelphia still should have won the game. As for the Titans, they are also without their starting QB but I expect the back-up Willis to be better here after playing all of last week's game. That playing time and experience will serve him well here. Tennessee did have about the same yardage as Houston in the loss last week but they were done in by turnovers. So the set up here, in terms of value, is very nice as the Titans off a turnover-fueled loss and the Cowboys off a turnover-fueled win. Also, that was such a big win for Dallas last week over a division rival that is having an NFL-best season this year. That said, this is a flat spot for Dallas and the Cowboys have certainly been known for playing down to the level of competition. Prior to the fortunate win and cover over Philly, the Cowboys were mired in a 2-4 ATS stretch and 3 of the 4 ATS losses were to teams with a losing record. The current combined record of those teams is 16-28-1. Now Dallas takes on a 7-8 Tennessee team that has lost 5 straight so I can see the Cowboys again underestimating a team and playing flat here. Note that Titans are on a 5-1 ATS run as a home dog and 5 of their 8 losses by 5 or less points this season. 10* TENNESSEE +12.5

Bowl Thursday 10* Minnesota Golden Gophers -10.5 vs Syracuse in Pinstripe Bowl in Bronx, NY @ 2 ET - The Orange rallied late for a win over BC in their season finale but this followed 5 straight losses. Boston College had a bad season too so this is not much to be proud of. The fact is Syracuse faded badly in the 2nd half of the season and they will be no match here for this tough Minnesota team. The Golden Gophers are too strong with their running game and will push the Orange defense all over the field throughout this game. Syracuse does not have the weapons on offense to keep up here. Note that Minnesota allowed 16 points or less in all 5 of its final games and won 4 of those 5 games. Conversely, the Orange defense allowed 34 points per game in its 5 game losing streak plus did allow 23 to a bad Eagles team in its season finale. This one gets ugly. Lay it! 10* MINNESOTA -10.5

Bowl Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 71.5 in Texas Tech vs Ole Miss @ 9 ET - This one features two strong offenses and some rather weak defenses. The Red Raiders defense struggled more and more as the season went on and also will be without a top defensive lineman in this game. That won't help matters and they are facing an ultra-dangerous Ole Miss offense that averages nearly 500 yards per game. Texas Tech also has an ever-dangerous offensive attack and they like to play fast. Ole Miss allowed 33 ppg last 7 games. Red Raiders allowed at least 34 points in 6 of last 9 games. Couple those facts with the fact these are two very solid offenses and you have the makings of a shootout here. This SEC offense will not be denied going against a Pac-12 defense. The fact this game is in Texas also helps the home state Red Raiders and I look for a big game from them here. 10* OVER 71.5 in Texas Tech

Bowl Wednesday 8* OVER 75 in Oregon vs North Carolina @ 8 ET - Big total but who is going to play high quality defense here? The Ducks best corner and the Tar Heels entire secondary all became opt outs. Neither defense was impressive to begin with and that means two very talented high-quality offenses are going to be trading scores throughout this one. North Carolina and Oregon are two of the top offenses in the nation. This game will turn into an absolute track meet with the teams marching up and down the field at the Holiday Bowl. 8* OVER 75 in Oregon

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 58.5 in Memphis Tigers vs Utah State Aggies @ 3:15 ET - I like the fact this total has dropped a lot and Aggies allowing 30.6 ppg this season and Tigers also allowed big points in all but 1 of their games away from home this season. Memphis 8 of last 10 games totaled at least 59 points. Utah State each of last 3 games totaled at least 65 points. Both teams should enjoy success here against rather weak defenses they are facing in this one. The Aggies big problem on offense this season was pass protection but the Tigers struggled in terms of pass rush this season. So this match-up favors the Utah State offense but also the Memphis offense is very strong and will enjoy success against the Aggies struggling defense here. Take advantage of the line value that has followed the downward line move. 10* OVER 58.5 in Memphis

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts +4 vs Los Angeles Chargers @ 8:15 ET - The Colts are turning to Nick Foles at QB. He is a veteran QB with a Super Bowl ring and Indy head coach Jeff Saturday is turning to him because he wants to do the best he can to give this Colts team the best chance to win the final 3 games of the season. That is the message he has conveyed to his team and the defense does not need any extra motivation either after the Colts blew a 33-0 lead last week in an embarrassing loss. This is the type of game where professional pride kicks in on the defensive side of the ball. As for the offense they get a "kick in the pants" with the move to Foles at QB. So there will be some extra sparks on both sides of the ball here and I like having the home dog at +4 in this one. In the Chargers last 10 games they have only ONE WIN by more than 3 points! I am going to challenge this bad LA defense to get the job done here and think it will be hard for the Chargers to pull away in this one. Possible upset and, if not, yet another tight LA win by 3 or less points. 10* INDIANAPOLIS +4

Bowl Monday 8* OVER 48.5 in Bowling Green Falcons vs New Mexico State Aggies @ 2:30 ET in Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit (indoors) - The Aggies played a very weak schedule and I am well aware of that. However, all their late season wins, including the added game against Valparaiso, helped build a lot of confidence and they scored and average of 55 points per game in those 3 victories! Bowling Green faced a tougher schedule than New Mexico State but still they are no powerhouse defensively. The Aggies should build off their last season hot streak and continue to score well here. However, the Falcons are also likely to pile up points here and that is why, in my opinion, the side is tough to call here. However, the total looks like a solid over the way I see it. Bowling Green did allow 35.3 ppg last 3 game of the season. I do like their passing attack to pile up yardage here against an Aggies defense that faced a lot of weak opposition and will struggle here. However, Falcons defense also nothing special and this one should see a lot of offense as Aggies will also move the ball well here. 8* OVER 48.5 in Bowling Green

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +7.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - Getting 7.5 points here is just too much. Yes, the Cardinals will have McSorley at QB but he played his college football at Penn State and will not be fazed by any type of 'big game atmosphere' or because of facing the Bucs in this rare start for him with his teammates Murray and McCoy both out. Yes the Cardinals have had a disappointing campaign but this is their home finale and a chance to diminish the fading, but still active, playoff hopes of the Buccaneers in this one. That said, look for a strong home finale effort from Arizona here. Note that the Cardinals, when a home dog and facing a team outside of their division, have covered 15 of last 22 games. As for Tampa Bay, they have just one ATS cover in their last dozen games! I am not saying the Cards will win this game, though that would not shock me, but the fact it that TB has ZERO wins by more than 6 points in their last dozen games. Look for McSorley and the Cardinals to surprise here. 10* ARIZONA +7.5

NFL Saturday 8* Las Vegas Raiders +2 @ Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:15 ET - The Raiders are 2-6 SU on the road this season yet this line is about a pick'em even though Steelers have won 4 of 6 games. Why is this line like this? Exactly! Look for Vegas to pull the upset just like they did in their last visit to Heinz Field. Raiders have won 4 of 5 games and the lone loss was by just 1 point. Las Vegas has kept their hopes alive for a playoff spot and confidence growing with each win. The 4 teams the Steelers have beat in their 4-2 run have a combined record of 19-36-1. None of those teams have a current record better than 5-9. Conversely, the recent teams the Raiders have beaten for their last 3 victories all have at least a .500 record on the season. This is honestly a bit of an ugly primetime match-up and the weather will be cold and windy. Many feel that will favor the Steelers but, again, this game was priced at nearly a pick'em by the odds makers for a reason. LV 2-6 SU on the road this season but I will take them. 8* LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +2 

Bowl Saturday 10* Top Play Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders +7 vs San Diego State Aztecs @ 8 ET - Just going to challenge the Aztecs to score enough to cover the full TD here. I just don't see that happening. San Diego State has not run the ball as well as they have in recent seasons. They made a switch at QB during the season that helped the team some but also I have to question their motivation here. Last season the Aztecs had a strong year and finished with a dozen wins on the year including their bowl victory over UTSA. This season they are just 7-5 on the year and they face a Middle Tennessee team that could be the hungrier team with this rare trip to Hawaii for them. MTSU wants to make the most of this rare opportunity and, though they have the weaker defense in this match-up, they do have the stronger offense. 3 of the 7 Aztecs wins this season were by 4 or less points. If you look at this match-up "on paper" as they saying goes you may think that San Diego State should dominate and, indeed, the line movement has followed that assumption. I like to fade line moves when the situation is right and this is one of those. Look for the more motivated team - the underdog in this case - to stay inside a 1-score margin in this one and possibly even pull of the upset. 10* MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +7

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The Eagles lost here by 20 last year. Also, when they met in Philly in a meaningless late season game last year, the Eagles lost by 25 and Minshew was also at QB for that one. Minshew starting here because Hurts is out with an injury. The Eagles did beat the Cowboys 26-17 earlier this season. So who gets revenge here? Minshew in another shot against the Cowboys (met them late last season) and the Eagles getting revenge at Dallas for laying an egg here earlier in last year's season? Or are the Cowboys getting revenge for the loss at Philly earlier this season? My money is on the Eagles. Minshew actually played quite well in his couple starts last season. Philadelphia will have the edge in the trenches here and they continue to pile up impressive sack totals on defense and their offense has continued to be able to produce impressive running totals too. Now, because of Hurts out and Minshew in, a team with only 1 loss on the season is getting 4.5 points and there is just too much line value to pass up on here. The Eagles need this game. It locks up up everything for them as a win gives them the NFC East title plus the #1 seed for the entire post-season. You know they will go hard here. The Eagles are going all out for this game. Right now the Cowboys are questioning a lot of things. They gave up over 500 yards at Jacksonville last week and the confidence of Dallas is not nearly on the level of that of the Eagles! Philly gets revenge for what happened in their last visit to Dallas. 10* PHILADELPHIA +4.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 49.5 in Kansas City Chiefs vs Seattle Seahawks @ 1 ET - It will be cold in Kansas City but no precipitation expected and the winds are not strong enough to be expected to be a factor either. That said, the offenses are the key in this match-up of two teams with potent offensive production but question marks on the other side of the ball. Chiefs have number 1 passing offense in the league but rank in the bottom third of the league for pass defense. Seattle has a solid passing offense but ranks as one of the worst defenses in the league overall on the other side of the ball. Seahawks off a loss at San Francisco (strong D) in which their offense struggled but they entered that game averaging 29.5 ppg last 10 games! Seattle can, and will, score well here in this one. The Chiefs just piled up big yardage at Houston in a game that never should have had to have OT to decided it. Huge yardage edge for KC as they piled up over 500 yards! That said, there is good value with this game to go over the total when you consider the potency of these two offenses. This one should get well into the 50s. The Chiefs are averaging 30 ppg last 11 games. 10* OVER 49.5 in Kansas City

Bowl Friday 10* Top Play Missouri Tigers +2.5 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ 6:30 ET - The Tigers are facing a Demon Deacons team that had a lead in all 12 of their games this season yet lost 5 of the 12. They also wrapped up the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. The point is that no lead is safe with Wake Forest and the Tigers are the much better team on defense. The Demon Deacons have allowed at least 30 points in 5 straight games. Missouri allowed 27 points or less in ALL but TWO of their DOZEN games this season. The Tigers started the season only 2-4 but they have 3 close losses to solid SEC foes like Auburn, Georgia, and Florida. Now Missouri very focused on getting a bowl win after falling just short last year versus Army. The Tigers won their final two games this season to get to 6-6 and become bowl eligible. Now Missouri wants to get that 7th win to get to their first winning season in 4 years. Like the motivation factor here while Wake Forest had an 11-3 season last year and went 7-1 in the ACC and played in a New Year's Eve bowl. Will they be motivated enough here? That is a legitimate question for sure and I feel the hungrier team with the far superior defense gets the win here. 10* MISSOURI +2.5

Bowl Friday 10* Top Play UNDER 57 in UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns vs Houston Cougars @ 3 ET - The Cougars are known for high-scoring games but the weather will be cold and breezy for this bowl in Shreveport and also ULL is quite solid defensively. Louisiana also has a tendency to not score a lot of points. Looking at this one, Louisiana will wan to temper the Houston offense and try to win the game with possession of the ball and running clock to make the game go by faster. The Cougars were an over team this season but this total will prove to be too high as the Ragin Cajuns play a solid game and keep this game close and tight throughout. The 7 point line is probably right but the total is where the value is in this one as ULL plays well in this one in their home state. So often they have been held to 24 points or less this season but also so often they have allowed 21 points or less. Look for this game to land in the 40s. 10* UNDER 57 in Louisiana

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Jets -2 vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 8:15 ET - Jets are off loss to Lions at home but are 5-0 / 100% ATS this season when off an ATS loss. Love the fact the weather will be ugly which lessens the Jaguars QB edge. Also, like the fact that Jacksonville off the huge upset win of the Cowboys in OT. Everything is aligned perfectly for New York to move to 6-0 ATS on the season when off an ATS loss. I know the Jets have lost 3 straight games SU overall but this is the perfect spot for them to bounce back and end that streak. They are favored here for a reason. 10* NEW YORK JETS -2

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Air Force Falcons +3.5 vs Baylor Bears @ 7:30 ET - Brutal weather in Fort Worth, TX expected for this one. Temperatures in the teens with wind chills possibly in the teens below zero. I would be the first one to tell you that Air Force is a bit over-rated based on their strength of schedule but there are some key factors here supporting the underdog Falcons. First off the weather is going to help the run-based Falcons offense. Also, Air Force is more used to playing in bad weather games because they play in the mountain west conference. Also, how motivated will Baylor be for this game? Yes it is just up the road from Waco in Fort Worth but the Bears can't be too thrilled about playing in this game after winning the Big 12 title last season. Baylor only ended up 6-6 this season and they recently fired defensive coordinator. This is the Armed Forces Bowl and so you know that the Falcons will come to this game motivated and ready as service academy schools are certainly known for being fully prepared for the biggest of games. Discipline and structure on one side in this one and even if they are the weaker side the fact that motivation and weather go in their favor here plus the fact we are getting 3.5 points to work with as well means that the underdog is the play here. 10* AIR FORCE +3.5

CFB Wednesday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +4 vs South Alabama Jaguars @ 9 ET - With QB Austin Reed deciding NOT to enter the transfer portal and the fact he WILL play in this game means the Hilltoppers offense is going to be operating at full efficiency for this one. Western Kentucky's passing offense will key this one. South Alabama has lost and failed to cover each of their last two bowl appearances. Now here the Jaguars are favored because of their 10-2 record but the 8-5 Hilltoppers are the play! Don't let the records fool you. The Jags just don't have a potent enough offense to keep up with the underdog in this one. 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY +4

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Toledo Rockets -3.5 vs Liberty Flames @ 7:30 ET - The Rockets catch a Flames team that struggled late in the season plus has an interim head coach. I also am a contrarian and love the fact that Rockets are 0-4 SU/ATS last 4 bowls and Liberty is 3-0 SU/ATS last 3 bowls. Toledo has been upset in recent bowls and should bounce back here with a strong effort. The Rockets are desperate to end the bowl streak of losses. They have the firepower to get the job done here. Liberty closed the season with 3 straight losses including a UConn team that got hammered by Marshall already in this bowl season. The Flames also lost to Virginia Tech who went 3-8 this season and also lost to a New Mexico State team by 35 and the Aggies barely limped into bowl season. Rockets have momentum after beating Ohio University in the MAC Championship Game too! When I match these teams up I just can not see any areas of the game where I give Liberty the edge. That said, laying the short number is very fair here. 10* TOLEDO -3.5

CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 52 in San Jose State Spartans vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 3:30 ET - Spartans can't run the ball well so will be a pass-first mindset here. Eagles have QB Powell back for this game after he missed some time late in the season. The Eastern Michigan offense is much stronger when he is under center. Powell had a ratio of 3 TDs versus 0 INTs in the Eagles final two games of the season. Eastern Michigan averaged 34.3 ppg last 3 games this season. San Jose State has scored at least 27 points in 8 of last 9 games. Considering the above plus this total dropping to as low as a 52, happy to take the over here. The snow is not moving into the Boise area until this game is just about finished and any snow until then will be light and not much wind expected here either. 10* OVER 52 in San Jose State

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 39 or 39.5 in Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams @ 8:15 ET - Yes it will be cold at Lambeau Field of course. However, light winds expected. Also, the snow is expected to hold off until late in the game or perhaps no snow at all. The Rams will again be without star defensive tackle Aaron Donald also. With this total dropping into the upper 30s we have excellent line value here. Packers off a bye week and QB Rodgers playing with a chip on his shoulder and will come out strong in this one. Green Bay getting a little healthier overall on the offensive side of the ball. Also, the Rams got a boost with a late game win courtesy of QB Mayfield last week. With the confidence of each offensive unit up here and a very low total to work with in this one, I sense an over is going to be the ultimate result in this one. Before the 17-16 win last week, Rams allowed at least 26 points in 4 straight games. Packers off a 28-19 win at Chicago before their bye week but allowed an average of 26.7 ppg their 10 prior games. With each team in that 26 point range you are talking about a game that would normally get into the 50s here and just because is cold weather for this one it does not mean the game fails to reach at least the 40s. I am taking advantage of the line value and going over the total here as we fade the line move. 10* OVER 39 or 39.5 in Green Bay

CFB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 40.5 in Marshall Thundering Herd vs Connecticut Huskies @ 2:30 ET in Myrtle Beach Bowl at Conway, SC - I know the Thundering Herd has 9 unders in 12 games this season but this total is just too low. I look for the Huskies to struggle to stop the Marshall offense. But, at the same time, Connecticut has built up confidence as the season has gone on and they will score better than many are expecting here. Marshall has scored 26.3 ppg last 3 games. 7 of last 10 UConn games have totaled at least 45 points. More of the same on tap here. 10* OVER 40.5 in Marshall

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Giants +4.5 @ Washington Commanders @ 8:20 ET - Value with the points here. I know Washington is off a bye week but they have covered ATS just 3 of last 14 when off a bye. I know the Giants just got clobbered last week but it was against the NFL best Eagles. That said, we are getting some line value here because the line move to 4.5 means the key numbers of 3 and 4 are now "win numbers" on this one with the underdog. The Giants are just not getting enough respect here. I know they have not won a game in a month but they will still be scrappy underdog here against an over-rated Commanders team. Washington has the same record as New York but has been playing better of late but the result is that they are over-valued here. The Giants were 9-3 ATS this season prior to getting hammered by Philadelphia last week. The Commanders, other than a shocking win over Philly, have seen all their wins come against teams with a losing record this season. The combined record of the other 6 team they beat is 23-54-2. So you can see why I have no hesitation in taking a 7-5-1 Giants team that just tied Washington two weeks ago in game that could not even be settled in OT. Outright upset would not surprise me at all here so I am happy to have the points in a game that certainly could be decided by 4 or less points. Look for the Giants ground game on offense to be the difference maker in this one. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +4.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots @ 4:05 ET - The Raiders have scored an average of 24 points last 6 games. Las Vegas has allowed 24 points on the season. The Patriots have allowed 23 points last 4 road games. New England has scored an average of 27.5 ppg last 4 road games. The over is 3-1 in Pats last 4 road games and the only under came up just short of going over by only 1 point. Considering that plus how dangerous this Raiders offense is (but lack of LV defense too) this game should be a high-scoring one that gets into the 50s. You know Raiders coach McDaniels - had been offensive coordinator of NE for 10 years - is going to want to show the Patriots and Bill Belichick what he is capable of orchestrating on offense. At the same time, Belichick wants to show what they can do without McDaniels calling the shots on offense. In other words, this is about two offensive minds looking to one-up the other and I expect plenty of points to result. Raiders have a solid overall offense but bad pass defense and New England will take advantage. 10* OVER 44.5 in Las Vegas

NFL Sunday 8* OVER 48.5 in Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles @ 1 ET - Bears defense has been horrible. Eagles defense could be looking ahead to showdown with Cowboys that is coming up on Saturday. Philadelphia offense should score just fine against this porous Chicago D. The Bears had a chance to rest up off the bye week and QB Fields should be even better now in terms of the injury to his non-throwing shoulder. He has had a chance to heal up. The Eagles have allowed 22.6 ppg last 5 games. The Bears have allowed 33.5 ppg last 6 games. It will be cold in Chicago but no precipitation expected and not too much wind either. Some breeze but not bad. That said, both offenses should be able to open things up here and I am expecting a lot of points in this one. Just can not see many defensive stops here. 8* OVER 48.5 in Chicago

CFB 10* Top Play OVER 59 or 60 in North Texas Mean Green vs Boise State Broncos @ 9:15 ET - The Mean Green now have their DC as their interim head coach for this one. The defense was already bad enough when the DC was fully focused on it and now he is worried about the entire team not just the defense! This potent Broncos offense is going to roll right through them like a hot knife through butter! Now the key to this over is that this North Texas offense has been very balanced and very good this season and this game is being played practically in their back yard. That said, the Mean Green can - and will - score big points here even against a solid Broncos defense. To me, Boise State is use to playing in bigger bowl games. I just don't know how excited and pumped and motivated this Broncos defense is going to be here. I could see the Mean Green offense enjoying plenty of success in this one but, again, this UNT defense just has no chance of stopping a dangerous and quick Boise State offense that will break out for some big plays in this one. 10* OVER 59 or 60 in North Texas

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Dolphins +7 or +7.5 @ Buffalo Bills @ 8:15 ET - Weather is the great equalizer in a game like this. Likely going to be a snowstorm in Buffalo during this game. The snow especially heavy during the game. So when you have a game where the teams can't fully operate their offenses as they want to would you rather be laying a full TD or getting a full TD? The fact is that anything can happen in wild weather games like this so I generally stay away when the games have a small spread. But when you have a spread of at least a TD in a game like this I love having the big dog. It is generally just hard for either team to create a lot of separation on the scoreboard when the weather is going to be nasty. Both teams have a pretty solid rush defense and I like the fact that the Bills are off a divisional revenge win over the New York Jets last week. The Dolphins are off B2B losses, including a 6 point loss last week at LA versus the Chargers. Buffalo is 8-3 last 11 games but other than a win by 14 points at New England and a 35-point win versus Pittsburgh, the other 9 games were decided by an average margin of just 5 points! In other words, week in and week out, the Bills are almost always involved in close games and with this game likely played in a snowstorm in Orchard Park, I just don't see the Bills being able to maximize the edge of having Josh Allen at QB. 10* MIAMI +7 or +7.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Florida Gators +8.5 vs Oregon State Beavers @ 2:15 ET - Typical contrarian play for me. Yes I know the Gators have some opt-outs but this line has jumped too high and Florida is not getting near enough respect here. I feel strongly that, given all the extra prep time plus the fact QB Jack Miller was highly recruited and came over from Ohio State will lead to a stronger performance here than most are expecting. Florida is well-coached and will be fully prepared here and this is a solid SEC team taking on an Oregon State team that had gone 9-22 from 2018 to 2020. The Beavers did go 7-6 last season but now after the 9-3 this season are a little over-rated here. I am not saying Oregon State will not win this bowl game but an upset would not surprise me. At the very least, the Gators will stay within a single score margin here. 10* FLORIDA +8.5

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners -115 vs Troy Trojans @ 3 ET - This UTSA program is on the national map in recent seasons after years of obscurity hailing from down in San Antonio, TX. No one cared about the Roadrunners with all the strong Big 12 programs in the state including THE University of Texas in Austin and then, from the SEC, you have the Aggies of Texas A & M. However, this Runners team is now ranked and in a 3rd straight bowl. They lost the first two though under coach Jeff Traylor.  That said, I know this one means so much for this team and I do not see them being denied. I know that Troy has a solid defense and I know the CUSA is not a tough conference but neither is the SunBelt Conference that Troy hails from. That said, the key here is a high amount of motivation from a lot of players from this UTSA program that have been with them even since the days of the program under head coach Frank Wilson. Keep in mind, this team has only had a football program for the past decade. It has come a long way and after the program began with Larry Coker (won national title with Miami) as a head coach, they then had Wilson and now Taylor. This program is 0-3 all-time in bowls and wants to put an end to that streak. Troy has won 4 straight bowls but this is their first since 2018 and this is a rookie head coach in Jon Sumrall leading the Trojans this season. UTSA coach Jeff Traylor and the Roadrunners just want this one too much and I do not see them being denied. With the spread as low as -1 but the money line as low as -115 the latter is the way to play this one. 10* UTSA -115

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks +3.5 vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - 49ers off win and Seahawks off loss. Seattle lost at San Francisco way back in Week 2 this season. Revenge? Check! Situational edge with Seahawks off home loss and Niners on the road now but coming off home win last week? Check! Seattle has been on a strong run as a home dog and I like them in this primetime affair at home and catching 3.5 points. Of course SF has the better defense and yes Purdy played well last week at QB but he is bothered right now by a rib/oblique injury. If it becomes worse or is too bothersome for him, Josh Johnson would likely get the call here. Purdy has 0 pass attempts on the road this season and a road game at Seattle is not easy. As for Johnson, he has been a journeyman NFL quarterback for a reason and has more INTs than TDs in his career. 10* SEATTLE +3.5

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals +2 vs New England Patriots @ 8:15 ET - Just like the Chargers last night, I like a little ugly home dog action here. Arizona is an ugly 4-8 this season but they are coming off their bye week. Trend players will be happy to know the Cardinals are 12-5 ATS last 17 times they have been a home dog. Also, in non-conference battles, they are have covered 6 of last 8 games. They catch a Patriots team still liking its wounds from Thursday's loss to the Bills in last week's action. That was a key game for New England and dropped them to the bottom of the division with the loss sending them to a 6-6 record on the year. The Patriots could struggle to bounce back after that defeat. Keep in mind, the Pats had only 242 yards of offense in that one. I feel they will struggle to keep up here as the Cardinals offense can be very dangerous and now has more weapons back compared to earlier in the season when Hopkins missed practically the first half of the season. Also, Murray and others have had a chance to heal up thanks to the bye week. Marquise Brown and DeAndre Hopkins both are back and on the field the same time with Kyler Murray now. Yes the Cards lost their first game this season in which they were all together two weeks ago but they will be even better now coming off the bye week. 10* ARIZONA +2

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The Dolphins are getting healthier as Tua Tagovailoa is cleared to play in this game at QB plus weapons like Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are both expected to play as well. The key? None of the 3 are 100% here. The biggest key? Tagovailoa threw 2 picks last week and he is the one to worry about as the QB is going to try and outduel the Chargers and QB Justin Herbert here and I just do not see that happening! Herbert and the Chargers are undervalued here as a home dog catching 3.5 points now and I just do not trust Miami in this spot. The Dolphins are 3-3 SU on the road this season but none of the 3 SU wins was by more than 3 points and the 3 SU losses were all by double digit margins. The average margin of the 3 defeats was 17 points and there is nothing "average" about that. With this being said, we have great home dog value here as the Chargers are angry off a 27-20 loss to the Raiders and, prior to that, 5 of last 7 LA games were decided by 3 or less points! The Chargers have one of the top passing attacks in the league and I feel Tagovailoa's ankle is still an issue for the Dolphins QB and it will reflect again in his performance here. Keep in mind all 5 of his picks have come on the road this season. The Chargers defense is their area of concern but watch them step up at home in this key Sunday night battle and note that LA had allowed 24 points or less in 4 of last 6 games prior to giving up 27 last week. That is significant here because Dolphins allowing an average of 33 points per game in road games this season. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS +3.5

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 44.5 in Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers @ 4:25 ET - The Panthers will be able to attack a Seattle defense that ranks among the weakest in the league overall and also among the worst in the league against the run. Carolina coming out of their bye week and enjoyed success with Sam Darnold at QB against Denver before the bye. That is a respectable Broncos defense that the Panthers faced and they were able to establish their ground game and that allowed Darnold to have a solid game as a game manager too and he was solid overall. That said, success should come even much easier against a bad Seahawks defense. However, the key to the over here is the Seattle offense is very good. The Seahawks have been quite consistent overall on offense plus have averaged 29.4 points scored per game last 10 games. Other than allowing just 9 points in one of their games against Arizona, the Seahawks other 10 games since their season-opening win have seen them allow 27.9 points per game. You can see, given these numbers, why I am expecting this game to get into the 50s. 10* OVER 44.5 in Seattle

NFL Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles -7 @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Eagles are still trying to hold off the Cowboys for the top spot in the division and the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC. They can not afford any letdowns and have continued, more often than not, to play like a well-oiled machine. They certainly will not overlook the division rival Giants. This is the first meeting between these long-time rivals this season and the key is the Eagles much better passing offense and much stronger pass defense. In comparison with the Giants, they are much stronger in both these areas. Also, the Eagles run defense has gotten healthier and added some reinforcements and the Giants could struggle to score here while the Philly offense continues to be one of the best around. As a result, Philly should roll to a big margin of victory here and I have no hesitation in laying the TD in this one. New York had some miracle wins and covers earlier this season and now their true colors are showing as they were beaten worse than the final score shows against the Cowboys and then that was followed by a disappointing tie at home versus the Commanders. Eagles will prove to be too much here! 8* PHILADELPHIA -7

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 32 in Army vs Navy @ 3 ET - Long time followers know I am a contrarian. I am aware that there have been a ridiculous 16 straight unders in this game. That is almost as long as I have been in business as I have been online for 20 years now with my picks. That said, I certainly have NOT played the over every year but this year I am. Both teams struggled a bit to stop the run when they faced Air Force this season. There still were not a lot of points in their match-ups with Air Force but I look for this one to make up for that. The total is just too low considering good weather in Philly for this one too. These teams can, and will, move the ball well enough on the ground to score points throughout this contest. The Midshipmen have averaged about 28 points scored per game last 7 games. The Black Knights have scored at least 28 points in 7 of 11 games this season. That has been against some weaker competition but it does raise the confidence level and Army enters this game off B2B big wins. Also, the Commander in Chief trophy for this season already belongs to Air Force since they beat both these teams. That takes some of the pressure off here and I expect some relaxed and confident drives on offense to help lead the way to more points than most are expecting here. Navy's back-up QB has had a chance to get worked in and the Midshipmen did score 32 versus Notre Dame. 10* OVER 32 in Army

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams +6.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders @ 8:15 ET - The Rams only have one home game remaining after this match-up and it is hosting a Broncos team that, just like LA, currently sits with a 3-9 record and is going nowhere this season. That means this Thursday match-up in primetime is the Rams last significant home game of the season. Los Angeles can play spoiler and diminish the Raiders already-slim playoff hopes. That said, I absolutely expect the Rams to come to play in this one and the Raiders will struggle to win this game, let alone cover the big spread. Long-term trend followers will be happy to know that the Raiders have covered only 10 of last 32 in non-conference battles. Las Vegas is off a big win over rival Chargers last week and they have New England on deck. Yes the Patriots team that McDaniels was the offensive coordinator for under coach Belichick for about a decade! In other words, this spot is absolutely a sandwich spot for the Raiders as they now take on a team that has lost 6 straight games. They are traveling this week on short rest and off a divisional win and are in a lookahead spot with McDaniels former team waiting on deck. I am not saying the Rams win this outright but it certainly would not shock me. Look for this game to be decided by 3 or 4 points. LA continues to lose games but has been competitive and, after struggling in other primetime appearances and with their next one coming up next Monday on the road and being that will be their last one of the season, look for Rams to make most of this primetime game at home! 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS