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NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints @ 8 ET - The Texans are the overall younger roster with some key position battles going on. The Saints are a more veteran team and already more established in that regard. Also, Houston just got blasted by 25 points last week while the Saints are off another win and are 2-0 in the preseason. Everything sets up well for the road underdog in this battle to be the more motivated team and I expect some of their key personnel to play a little longer when you look at the Texans and compare to New Orleans. This line was in the 3.5 range and has dropped to a 2.5 and for the books to be willing to move past the key number of 3 you know that they are respecting some of the action the Texans have seen in the betting markets. I expect an outright upset here but we will grab the points just in case. This is the final game of the preseason and there have been plenty of underdog upsets and also the points can prove invaluable when you consider that 12 games already in the preseason have been decided by 2 or less points. Grab the points here in the preseason finale and expect an upset or, at the very least, a game decided by the slimmest of margins. 10* HOUSTON +2.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 36.5 in Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams @ 9 ET - Yes it is only preseason but perhaps a little extra hunger to get into the win column here? Both teams are 0-2 so far and I think you'll see a good push for points here in this one! I also like the fact this is Denver's only home game in the preseason. The weather will be great and, keep in mind, the field goals can be made from extra distance here in the thin air of Denver. Being preseason and not having to be overly concerned with risk of giving the opponent great field position on a long field goal miss, why not try them? Exactly! So you could see some extra field goals made in this one, some excellent field position on misses, and the points are going to add up in this one. The Rams defense got crushed through the air last week and this was after getting destroyed on the ground the week before. The Broncos offense will be able to pick their poison here and the LA defense will be the victim. However, the Rams offense should enjoy success here too as it is not exactly an accident that Denver is 0-2 so far this preseason. So, given a low total and two teams who might be a little extra aggressive in emphasizing scoring opportunities, look for a solid winner here as both teams score well in this one on a nice evening in Colorado. 10* OVER 36.5 in Denver

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons + points vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 7:30 ET - Currently this line is available as a high as a +5 with the dominant number being +4.5 right now. Simply put, this is a great line value as even a 3 or 4 point loss (both key numbers) would still be a win for Atlanta ATS. Generally speaking, I like fading teams who are off of outright upset wins as an underdog and the Steelers are in that role here. Historically, and Pittsburgh's recent seasons are no exception, teams do not perform well in that role in the preseason. We are getting some extra value here because both of Pittsburgh's wins in this preseason have been by a double digit margin. However, what seems to be ignored here is that the Falcons are allowing an average of only 8 points per game so far in this preseason and Atlanta is undefeated thus far with one win and one tie. No team has allowed fewer points than the Falcons in this preseason plus the Steelers, though undefeated, have allowed twice as many points! I know Pittsburgh has solid depth at QB and this is the final preseason game so depth is important. However, Atlanta also has respectable depth at QB too and I feel the Steelers WR group is very thin on depth too. That said the Falcons absolutely could pull off the upset here and, in my mind, the points are offering a fantastic value here. 10* ATLANTA + points

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +1.5 vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8 ET - The Ravens have won 24 straight preseason games and yet this line is basically a pick'em. This tells me all I need to know here. However, of course we'll give you a little more to chew on with this one! The fact is that neither Lamar Jackson nor Tyler Huntley will see any time at QB in this one for the Ravens. That means Baltimore will only go with their #3 and #4 guys, Josh Johnson and Anthony Brown, in this one. The Ravens barely snuck by the Eagles last week. The Commanders also got a tight win last week but they seem more motivated this season and more cohesive. A lot has changed with this Washington organization recently and this is a different team this season that wants to set a different standard. They have played 2nd fiddle to the Ravens in the Baltimore/DC region for years now. Even though this is only a preseason game, the fact that the Ravens have won 24 in a row actually could give the Commanders a little extra incentive here. They also are going to be giving more playing time to their stronger QB battles than what Baltimore is. Ravens dealing with just a 3/4 battle because they won't risk Jackson this week and because Huntley tweaked something last week so they won't risk him this week either. I don't believe in trap lines per se but I do believe in further analytics when a line looks a little funny to the masses. That is the case here and, in this case, the 24-game winning streak is primed to end! We'll grab the +1.5 just in case it is another 1-point win for the Ravens but look for an outright win for the home team in this one. 10* WASHINGTON +1.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings +2.5 vs Tennessee Titans @ 8 ET - The Titans gave up 8 sacks last week. Yes, EIGHT! Keep in mind this was to a Bears team that finished DEAD LAST in the NFL last year for sacks! In other words, this is absolutely concerning. Now, I know this was the back-ups that allowed all that damage but it is back-ups that usually decide preseason games. I think Tennessee is in trouble here on the road. The Vikings are angry off a double digit loss and they have performed well in the past in the preseason when they enter a game off a loss by a margin of 10 or more points. Minnesota will be ready here. Also, they are at home and they are catching a few points. I like the fact the Vikings blew a 10 point lead last week too. That insures proper focus here even though this is only a preseason game. Certainly both teams have some things to fix entering this game off losses last week but some things are more fixable than others. The back-up play for the players in the trenches in Tennessee leaves a lot to be desired and won't be fixed in one week. The Vikings have a lot of talent and depth at the WR position and I look for the Vikes to open things up a bit on offense as this game goes on and they will get the win through the aerial attack. I will grab the 2.5 points as added insurance in case they fall just short. 10* MINNESOTA +2.5

NFL Friday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 @ Atlanta Falcons @ 7:30 ET - There has been an over-reaction here to the fact Joe Burrow is out for the Bengals and the fact the Falcons will be playing two quarterbacks who are their top two guys and who did not play last week. The key here is that Cincinnati will be mostly playing two quarterbacks that did play last week. Don't be surprised if having already worked out the rust benefits the Bengals QB situation here. Don't be surprised if the Cincy defense is much better this week after they got ram-rodded last week. Note also that the Falcons won 19 to 3 last week but they were outgained by about 100 yards in that game and they punted 5 times. Their opponent actually punted only 2 times in the game but they were done in by turnovers and being stopped on downs a couple times too. So the point is that Cincy is not nearly as bad as the final scored showed last week just like Atlanta is not nearly as good as the final score showed last week. Also, the Bengals may play even better here knowing that an injury to Burrow is NOT being risked. This is just too many points for this particularly preseason match-up. Don't be surprised if we see an outright upset here or a Bengals loss by 4 or less points. In recent seasons, the Falcons have a poor ATS record as a home favorite while the Bengals have been solid as a road dog. This is preseason ATS stuff I am talking about and I look for those trends to continue here. Give me the big points. 10* CINCINNATI +6.5

NFLX Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns +3.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Browns have performed well as a road dog in preseason action and also they have performed well as an underdog when they are facing a team that is below .500 in preseason action. That angle fits here as well as the Eagles are off a 1-point loss last week. I also like the fact that Cleveland is off a loss entering this one. The Browns off a 2-point loss and Philly off a 1-point loss and I am expecting an upset here but like the value of having the points on our side given numbers like this. In case we see another tight finish involving each of these teams, the points could prove very valuable. The Browns won the yardage battle by about 150 yards in the HOF Game and then again by about 100 yards in last week's loss to the Commanders. The point is that this is an underdog that has played quite well thus far in the preseason and the value of getting a FG plus the hook is something I will not pass up on here. 10* CLEVELAND +3.5

NFL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles +5 or +5.5 @ Baltimore Ravens @ 7 ET - Everyone knows the Ravens have been incredible in preseason for many years now. Trust me, everyone means the odds makers too! That said, this line opened up with Baltimore a FG favorite at home. That is totally an enticement to take the Ravens as the implication is that the teams are equal - under preseason standards - and the home team is merely getting their full 3 points as per usual. That said, is this line some massive mistake? Well, long-time followers know how I feel about perceived "mistakes" by the odds makers. That said, the fact the line is now up to a solid 5 and as high as a 5.5 as of gameday morning absolutely has me fading the masses and I am happy to have the additional line value the markets have given us compared to what the odds makers said the line should be. This play is going against the grain per se but, historically, I love plays like this one!  10* PHILADELPHIA +5.5 OR +5

NFLX Friday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders +3 @ Cleveland Browns @ 7:30 ET - Cleveland won the HOF Game versus the Jets and dominated the game statistically. The fact they are at home again (prior game in nearby Canton, OH) and have a game under their belt would seem to favor the Browns here. However, teams actually tend to NOT perform well when off an outright upset win as an underdog and this includes in preseason action and this trend also includes specifically the Browns. That said, plus considering the fact Cleveland has not performed well in recent seasons in pre-season in the home favorite role has me siding with the Commanders here. This is one of those ugly dog spots where most will be lining up with the home favorite yet, historically, it is a great spot to grab the road dog. 10* WASHINGTON

NFLX Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 38 in New York Jets vs New York Giants @ 1 ET - The Jets have been giving up a lot of yardage but so too have the Giants. Also the Giants have shown they'll keep slinging the ball around on the field no matter what the situation is and who is on the field. That said, the Jets are expected to play starters more in this one but all I am seeing from this is points. That's because the Jets defense also struggled in that first game of the season against the Eagles in the first half before they rallied for the win. I just do not care for what I have seen from either defense this preseason including almost the entirety of when the back-ups are in. Also there is still a lot of QB evaluation going on here with back-ups so both teams will continue to throw a lot in this preseason finale. Note that each teams first two games have totaled at least 40 points this preseason. Also, their game last preseason was low-scoring but that was week 1. Note that their week 3 games saw the Jets game total 62 points and the Giants game total 42 points. We'll get into the 40s here based on the way these two teams have been playing in this preseason and what I am expecting to see here based on how the teams are approaching this preseason finale. 10* OVER 38 in New York Jets

NFLX Saturday 10* OVER 37 in Miami @ 7 ET - The Dolphins scored only 13 points in last week's loss but it was a deceiving final point tally as they had over 300 yards of passing offense in that one. As for the Eagles, each of their first two games totaled over 40 points and so too did Miami's first game of this preseason. Philadelphia on a 4-1 O/U run in preseason games under their new head coach and the only one that did not go over did see them allow 35 points. In other words, expect plenty of points here because did score an average of 31 points per game in their last 3 preseason home games prior to the low-scoring loss to the Raiders last week. Again, the Dolphins did have solid yardage in that game through the air and I like what they have been doing in terms of the QB rotation in this preseason and ditto for the Eagles. 10* OVER 37 in Miami