11-24-16 |
Oakland v. Nevada -5 | Top | 78-82 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Nevada Wolfpack.
This Wolfpack team looks like a true contender in the Mountain West. Nevada absolutely crushed Oregon State on Friday, winning by a score of 83-58. The Wolfpack are 3-0 at home so far, with both of those wins coming by double digits. They were 11-3 at home last season, and won the CBI Tournament. Nevada returns four of five starters, including D.J Fenner and Cameron Oliver who each averaged over 13 points per game last year. Oliver scored a team high 24 against Oregon State, and he scored 22 points in a win over Iona on Sunday. They travel to Alaska to play the Oakland Grizzlies, who have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 neutral site games. Nevada is 8-1-1 ATS in it's last 10 non conference games, and they've dominated teams from smaller conferences the last two years. Oakland lost last year's leading scorer Kay Felder to the NBA draft, and it will be difficult to replace that productions as he average over 24 points per game last year.
Take NEV.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-20-16 |
Iona v. Nevada -10.5 | Top | 76-91 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. The Iona Gaels lost six players from last year's team that finished with a 22-11 record in second place in the MAAC. They were 0-4 on the road versus non-conference opponents last year, and they lost by 25 points at Valparaiso, and by 20 points at Oregon State. They have started this season in similar fashion, losing 99-78 at Florida State in their opener. It won't get any easier at Nevada, as this Wolfpack team looks like a true contender in the Mountain West. Nevada absolutely crushed Oregon State on Friday, winning by a score of 83-58. The Wolfpack are 2-0 at home so far, with both of those wins coming by double digits. They were 11-3 at home last season, and won the CBI Tournament. Nevada returns four of five starters, including D.J Fenner and Cameron Oliver who each averaged over 13 points per game last year. Oliver scored a team high 24 against Oregon State, and he should be primed for a big night versus Iona.
Take NEV.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-18-16 |
Coppin State v. Utah -26 | Top | 51-94 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Utah. The Utah Utes have played twice this season, winning both games by 40+ points. They are a huge favorite at home tonight against Coppin State, but I don't think 26 points is a big enough number all things considered. The Eagles are playing a rare third game in three nights, and fourth game in five nights. They are coming off back to back 30+ point losses at BYU and Coastal Carolina. Last night in Provo they shot just 25.9 percent from the field, and made just 50% of their free throws. They've given up an average of more than 80 points per game, and this Utah team is as good as anybody they have faced so far. The Utes are well rested, and this looks like it should be a complete mismatch. Utah ranks 3rd nationally averaging 56 rebounds per game, and they have held opponents to an average of 45 points during their 2-0 start. The home team should win this game by 30+ points.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-10-16 |
Pelicans v. Bucks -4 | Top | 112-106 |
Loss | -115 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Milwaukee Bucks.
The 0-8 Pelicans played back to back games on Monday/Tuesday, and they play their third game in four nights on the road at Milwaukee tonight. This looks like a tough spot for the shorthanded Pelicans, who are at the end of a three game road trip. New Orleans has really missed Tyreke Evans and Quincy Poindexter, who have both battled knee injuries. This is a "get right game" for the Bucks, who didn't play well in an 86-75 loss at Dallas on Sunday. They have won three of four at home this season, and they were a solid 23-18 at home last year. The Pelicans have lost 36 of their last 45 road games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last four away from the Big Easy. New Orleans ranks dead last in the NBA with a three-point shooting percentage of .277 this season. The worst part is that Anthony Davis is averaging over 30 points and 11 rebounds per game, so it's not like you can ask him to do anymore.
Take MIL.
GL,
Jesse Schule. |
11-06-16 |
Suns v. Lakers -145 | Top | 108-119 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Lakers.
Coming off a shocking upset win over Golden State, this might seem like a classic "let down spot" for the Lakers. I've never been a big fan of situational handicapping without considering the rest of the available info, and everything else I see tells me that getting the Lakers as a small favorite at home here is a bargain. You could argue that the Suns are also in a let down spot, coming off an overtime win on the road at New Orleans. Devin Booker hit a buzzer beater to tie that game, forcing OT. It was just the Suns second win in six games, and Phoenix has been brutal defensively. The Suns rank 30th in the NBA, allowing opponents to average 112.3 points per game so far. The Lakers coach puts things in perspective with this comment: "Honestly, we're looking at the big picture and the big picture isn't beating Golden State and then losing Sunday night at home," Los Angeles coach Luke Walton said. "The big picture is we make it really hard on teams that come into Staples Center and get wins, and so far we've had two home games against two really good teams and won both." The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and they had six players score in double figures in their home win over the Warriors Sunday. Julius Randle and Lou Williams each scored 20 points.
Take LAL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-16 |
Kings v. Bucks -125 | Top | 91-117 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
|
06-16-16 |
Warriors +120 v. Cavs | Top | 101-115 |
Loss | -100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Golden State Moneyline.
The Warriors were in complete control of this series after winning big in Cleveland in Game 4, but they were embarrassed in a shocking 112-97 home loss in Game 6. The Cavs would love to ride that momentum here in Game 6, but with two days of rest between games in the Finals, momentum hasn't been an easy thing to hang on to. It's hard to beat the Warriors at the best of times, but handing them consecutive losses is a momentous task. As good as Cleveland looked winning Game 3 by a whopping 30 point margin, they were unable to deliver a repeat performance at home in Game 4. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Quicken Loans Arena, including last year's Finals that ended here in Cleveland. They are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 in this series, and with Draymond Green back from suspension, I like the Warriors to end it tonight.
Take GS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
06-10-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs OVER 206 | Top | 108-97 |
Loss | -108 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GS@CLE to go OVER the total. After both the first two games of this series failed to reach the total, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower number for Game 3 in Cleveland. The pace of play in the first two games should have resulted in a higher score, but Cleveland just kept on missing shots. The Cavs shot 52.7 percent from the field in Game 3, and they were 12-of-25 from three point range. Still the total for Game 4 remains much lower than it was in the first two games, and I think after three straight lob-sided games, we might finally see a competitive contest here in Game 4. Surely the Splash Sisters have to be better, and they have plenty to prove after going a combined 4-of-16 from beyond the arc in Game 3. The over is 6-0 in Cavaliers last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
06-08-16 |
Warriors -108 v. Cavs | Top | 90-120 |
Loss | -108 | 44 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Golden State Warriors.
The Cavs put up a hell of a fight in last year's Finals, despite injuries to Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving. Many thought that Cleveland would have a better chance with all it's star players healthy heading into the rematch. So far it's been all Golden State, and the scariest thing for Cavs fans is that neither of the Splash Brothers have scored 20 points in either of the first two games. Both Curry and Thompson were efficient in Game 2, going a combined 8-of-16 from beyond the arc. If the Warriors require somebody to step up their game, look for the dynamic duo to turn it up a notch.
The Warriors are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last 10 in Cleveland. The last time these two teams played at Quicken Loans Arena, the Warriors won by a score of 132-98. It sure looks like the balance of power in the NBA is heavily stacked toward the Western Conference, and the Cavs just don't look like they can keep up with the best team in NBA history (most regular season wins).
Take GS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
06-05-16 |
Cavs v. Warriors OVER 206.5 | Top | 77-110 |
Loss | -110 | 54 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go OVER the total.
After cashing in on a heavy under trend this post-season, I decided to switch things up with a play on the over in Game 1. It didn't work out, with the Splash Brothers shooting just 8-of-27 combined, totaling only 20 points. The Cavs were brutal, shooting just 38.1 percent in a 104-89 loss. Cleveland missed a lot of easy put-backs and layups that you would have expected them to hit. Heading into Game 2, we see that the bookmakers have adjusted with a total that is 3-4 points lower than it was in Game 1. We know Curry and Thompson are going to be better than they were in Game 1, and I expect Cleveland to play a bit better as well. The Warriors have failed to reach the total in four of their last five overall, but three of those games saw enough points to go over tonight's total.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
06-02-16 |
Cavs v. Warriors OVER 210 | Top | 89-104 |
Loss | -103 | 57 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE@GS to go OVER the total.
The playoffs have been very profitable for The Iceman so far, and much of the success has come with totals. Those who have followed would know that The Iceman plays a lot more unders than he does overs, but he's changing things up here in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. While he Warriors failed to reach the total in five of their seven games in the Western Conference Final, only two of those games saw fewer points than the total here for Game 1. When these two teams met in the Finals last year, we saw tight, low scoring games. The series opener went just over, only because of overtime. Things have changed here in 2016, with a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, these Cavs can score with the best of them. The Warriors certainly are the best of them, averaging 111 points per game in the playoffs. The Cavs come in averaging 107 points per game. The Warriors didn't play particularly well against the Thunder, but with Klay Thompson making 11 three-pointers in Game 6, and the Splash Bros hitting a combined 13-of-23 from downtown in Game 7, they survived. I think if they play that way against the Cavs they could be in for a tough series.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-30-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 219 | Top | 88-96 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors have won back to back games to force a Game 7 at Oracle Arena, but neither of those wins were particularly convincing. They trailed 53-48 at halftime in Game 6, and they have trailed at the half in three of the last four games in this series. The only thing that saved them from elimination in Game 6 was the red hot shooting from Klay Thompson, who hit 11 three-pointers. If the Warriors are counting on Thompson (not Curry) to carry the load here in Game 7, they could be in trouble.
The Thunder have really turned up the defensive intensity in the playoffs, not just in this series, but also in their semi finals series versus San Antonio. Steven Adams continues to own the boards, and he had three blocks in Game 6. These teams have failed to reach the total in five of the last six meetings at Golden State, and the Warriors have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 Conference Finals games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-28-16 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 221 | Top | 108-101 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GS@OKC to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination once again, but this time on the road. Steph Curry said after Game 4: " this is not how we're going to go out." Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up".
Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG. We've seen three of the first four games in this series fall well below these inflated totals, and we only saw a combined 85 points in the second half of Game 4. In an elimination game, I expect both teams to go all out on defense from start to finish. The Warriors haven't taken a lead to the locker room at halftime in any of their road games in these playoffs. Despite scoring 31 points in Game 5, Curry was just 3-for-8 from beyond the arc.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-27-16 |
Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196.5 | Top | 113-87 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE@TOR to go OVER the total. After three of the last four games in this series went under, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower total for Game 6 in Toronto. I think this was an over-correction, and this of all games looked like one that should see more scoring. Sure enough Game 4 went over (105-99). None of the three games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 6. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to close out the series, but I think the better bet is on the total. The trends show that the over is 7-3 in the Cavs last 10 road games, and 12-6 in their last 18 Conference Finals games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
05-26-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 221 | Top | 111-120 |
Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors are down, but not out. After getting throttled in back-to-back games in Oklahoma City, they face elimination at home in Game 5 tonight. Steph Curry says: " this is not how we're going to go out." The Warriors are asked to cover a bunch of points here, and I just can't bring myself to bet on a team that has already displayed an inability to stop Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Head coach Steve Kerr insists that Curry isn't injured, but then goes on to say that "it's the playoffs, everyone is a little banged up".
Curry was 2-for-10 from beyond the arc in Game 4, and 3-for-11 in Game 3. He's only averaged 24 points per game in the series, well below his regular season average of 30.1 PPG. We've seen three of the four games in this series fall well below these inflated totals, and we only saw a combined 85 points in the second half of Game 4. In an elimination game, I expect both teams to go all out on defense from start to finish. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings at Oracle Arena, and the Thunder have gone under in four straight road games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-25-16 |
Raptors v. Cavs OVER 198.5 | Top | 78-116 |
Loss | -110 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total. After the first three games of this series went under, the bookmakers adjusted with a much lower total for Game 4 in Toronto. I think this was an over-correction, and this of all games looked like one that should see more scoring. Sure enough Game 4 went over (105-99). None of the first two games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 5. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a pair of losses, but I think the better bet is on the total. The trends show that the over is 8-3 in Cavaliers last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and 12-5 in their last 17 Conference Finals games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
05-25-16 |
Raptors +11 v. Cavs | Top | 78-116 |
Loss | -102 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Raptors. Niether of the first two games in Clevleand were close, but I expect a better effort from a confident Raptors team here in Game 5. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a pair of losses, but I think the better bet is on the Raptors getting a bunch of points at the half. Toronto opened up a big lead in the first half of Game 2, before a complete collapse in the final two minutes before the break. This team has a lot more poise and swagger heading into Game 5. Take TOR. GL, Jesse Schule |
05-24-16 |
Warriors v. Thunder +1 | Top | 94-118 |
Win | 100 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Despite the fact that the Thunder lead this series 2-1, and a coming off a dominant win at home in Game 3, they remain the underdog. We've seen the Warriors deal with their fair share of adversity in this post-season, and they've made a habit of playing poorly in the first half on the road. They haven't led at the half in any of their road games so far in the playoffs.
Steph Curry continues to make incredible shots night in and night out, but after dropping 40 points on the Blazers in Game 4, he's been held under 30 points in four straight. He's admitted his knee is still not 100%, and he injured his elbow late in Game 2. You could see his elbow was quite swollen while he was sitting on the bench in the third quarter, and the injury was on his shooting arm.
When the Warriors visited Oklahoma City in the regular season, they went to halftime trailing 57-46. They went on to win that game in overtime 121-118. These come-from-behind wins are so common for the Warriors, there really isn't a lot of urgency for them to try to win the game in the first half. That's not the case for the Thunder, who really need to take advantage of the energy from the home crowd. A fast start is crucial for Oklahoma City.
Take OKC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-23-16 |
Cavs v. Raptors OVER 196.5 | Top | 99-105 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go OVER the total. After the first three games of this series went under, the bookmakers have adjusted with a much lower total for Game 4 in Toronto. I think this is an over-correction, and this of all games looks like one that should see more scoring. None of the first three games were close, but I expect the Cavs to respond after an embarrassing loss in Game 3. The Raptors should continue to play well, behind the solid play of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and the dominance on the boards by "Big Business" (Bizmack Biyombo). Many betters will be taking the Cavs to bounce back after a double-digit loss (the Zig Zag Theory), but I think the better bet is on the Cavs to simply be more competitive, thus pushing the total over. The trends show that the over is 9-3-1 in Cavaliers last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
05-22-16 |
Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 220.5 | Top | 105-133 |
Loss | -110 | 68 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GS@OKC to go UNDER the total 1st half. Do you remember when the Thunder upset the Warriors in Game 1? Perhaps the Warriors convincing 118-91 win in Game 2 has made us forget about how well the Thunder have played. Oklahoma City returns home with the series tied 1-1, and they are an underdog in Game 3. We've seen the Warriors deal with their fair share of adversity in this post-season, and they've made a habit of playing poorly in the first half on the road. They trailed at the half in both of their games in Portland, and they failed to get to the locker room with a lead at the half in both road games in their first round series versus Houston .
Steph Curry continues to make incredible shots night in and night out, but after dropping 40 points on the Blazers in Game 4, he's been held under 30 points in three straight. He's admitted his knee is still not 100%, and he injured his elbow late in Game 2. You could see his elbow was quite swollen while he was sitting on the bench in the third quarter, and the injury was on his shooting arm.
When the Warriors visited Oklahoma City in the regular season, they went to halftime trailing 57-46. That's well short of the number for the first half of Game 3. These teams have failed to reach the total in four of the last five meetings, and the Warriors have gone under in six of their last seven Conference Finals games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
05-19-16 |
Raptors +13 v. Cavs | Top | 89-108 |
Loss | -115 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors. Nobody gave the Raptors much of a chance at winning this series prior to Game 1, and after Cleveland mopped the flour with them in the opener, most are expecting a sweep. There's no denying that Toronto is out-gunned, and Cleveland is the more talented team, that should win the series. The fact is, Toronto finished the regular season with an almost identical record (1 game back), and won two of three in the season series.
The Raptors were terrible offensively in Game 1, shooting just 5-of-24 from beyond the arc. Kyle Lowry scored eight points on 4-of-14 shooting, and was 0-for-7 from three-point range. It would be difficult for the Raptors to play that bad again in Game 2, and an improved performance from Lowry is almost a guarantee.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Cleveland come out a little sluggish, as this appears to be a let down spot coming off such an easy win. In the Cavs previous series, they beat Atlanta by a whopping 25 points in Game 2, but then trailed at halftime in the next game. They went on to sweep the Hawks, but that's even more reason why they might be complacent early on in Game 2. I'll take a tab at the Raptors getting a whole whack of points on this inflated line.
Take TOR.
GL, Jesse Schule |
05-18-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 222 | Top | 91-118 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors got off to a great start in Game 1, but they struggled in the second half allowing Oklahoma City to come from behind to record the upset. Stephen Curry still isn't 100%, and he was just 1-of-1 from the field in the fourth quarter. The Warriors have a habit of slow starts to games, and I really think these teams will struggle to reach this enormous number in the first half of Game 2. Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. After seeing so many high scores in Golden State's series versus Portland, the bookmakers have come out with an astronomically high total for Game 2 of the Western Conference Final.
While there were several high scoring games in the Thunder's series versus San Antonio, not one of those games saw enough points to reach the total in tonight's game. In fact the Thunder held the Spurs to 100 points or less in five of the six games. It's not going to be easy to duplicate that success against the Warriors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see another close game at Oracle Arena.
Take UNDER .
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
05-17-16 |
Raptors v. Cavs UNDER 202.5 | Top | 84-115 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs have been unstoppable so far in these playoffs, but they come into Game 1 versus the Raptors off a long layoff. It's been nine days since they closed out the Hawks in a four game sweep in the Eastern Conference Semi Final. Game 4 of that series failed to reach 200 total points, as have five of Cleveland's last seven games in these playoffs. The Raptors are also trending toward the under, with six of their seven games against the Heat failing to reach a total of 200 points. Toronto finished the regular season with the NBA's 3rd best defense, allowing opponents to average just over 98 points per game. The emergence of center Bizmack Biyombo may make them even tougher, and they held the Heat to an average of 93.7 points in their last series. Biyombo isn't as much of a scorer as the injured Jonas Valancunias, but he's a dominant defender and an excellent rebounder. The Raptors have gone under in eight of their last nine on the road, and Cleveland has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven when playing on three or more days of rest. The Cavs could be a little sluggish to start tonight's game, given the nine day layoff.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-16-16 |
Thunder v. Warriors UNDER 223.5 | Top | 108-102 |
Win | 100 | 43 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@GS to go UNDER the total.
The Oklahoma City Thunder shocked everyone with a stunning upset win in their second round series versus San Antonio. As impressive as they have looked, I still think they're going to be in way over their heads in the Western Conference Final. The Warriors had some ups and downs in their series versus Portland, but in the end they were able to overcome slow starts, closing out the Blazers in five games.
Steph Curry returned to action in Game 4, and he scored 40 points (a record 17 in overtime) en route to a 132-125 victory. He made his first three-pointer in the third quarter, and he did the bulk of his scoring after that. After seeing so many high scores in Golden State's series versus Portland, the bookmakers have come out with an astronomically high total for Game 1 of the Western Conference Final.
While there were several high scoring games in the Thunder's series versus San Antonio, not one of those games saw enough points to reach the total in tonight's game. In fact the Thunder held the Spurs to 100 points or less in five of the six games. It's not going to be easy to duplicate that success against the Warriors, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Golden State struggle to shake off the rust coming off a layoff. The Warriors came out flat a few times in their series versus Portland, and it could take a while to get going in Game 1.
Take UNDER .
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-13-16 |
Raptors v. Heat UNDER 190 | Top | 91-103 |
Loss | -100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIA to go UNDER the total.
It's rare to see The Iceman change strategy in the middle of a playoff series, and even after just missing the under in Game 5, he's firing right back with "under" in Game 6. The officials are clearly giving the Heat the benefit of the doubt on every close call, and Toronto is really going to struggle to score with a banged up DeMar Derozan and and DeMarre Carroll. Bizmack Biyombo has been great, but he doesn't pose as much of a threat as the injured Jonas Valancunias.
Patrick Patterson started at PF in Game 5, and he scored just eight points on 3-of-12 shooting. He's having a terrible series, shooting just .335 and averaging just six points per game. The Heat could be without Loul Deng in Game 6, and Hassan Whiteside remains sidelined with a knee injury. Toronto has failed to reach the total in eight straight road games, and 10 of it's last 13 overall. The under is 8-2 in Miami's last 10 overall.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-12-16 |
Spurs -117 v. Thunder | Top | 99-113 |
Loss | -117 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs are on the ropes, facing elimination in Game 6 in Oklahoma City tonight. This is a similar spot to Game 3, coming off a tough home loss in Game 2, they were able to come up with a big 100-106 win on the road. I think history is going to repeat itself here, with the Spurs coming off a home loss in a game that they led almost the entire way. Kawhi Leonard was dominant in Game 5, scoring 26 points on 12-of-21 shooting. He also had five steals. He was even better in the Spurs Game 3 win at Oklahoma City, scoring 31 points and pulling in 11 rebounds. He's going to need to be big for the Spurs here in Game 6. Greg Popovich has no shortage of playoff (and championship) experience, and I think he's going to have his squad well prepared for this elimination game. The Thunder have a history of playoff collapses, and they were ousted at home in Game 6 versus the Spurs two seasons ago. In 2013 they were ousted at home in Game 5 versus the Grizzlies, and I still think the Spurs are likely to come back and win this series.
Take SA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-11-16 |
Heat v. Raptors UNDER 188.5 | Top | 91-99 |
Loss | -110 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIA@TOR to go UNDER the total. The Raptors blew a late lead in Game 4 in Miami, and they return home deadlocked at 2-2 in their series versus the Heat. Coming off such a tough loss, I expect Toronto to come out strong with a big first half in Game 5. Both teams have lost their starting center, but Toronto is in far better shape with Bizmack Biyombo scoring 13 points and pulling in 13 rebounds in 31 minutes in Game 4. The Raptors are also getting big minutes off the bench from Cory Joseph and Terrence Ross, who combined to score 28 points in the loss at Miami. With DeMar DeRozan battling a thumb injury, the pressure is on Kyle Lowry to carry the load. He scored 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in Game 3, but he fouled out with just 10 points in Game 4. Expect a bounce back performance from the Raptors PG at home tonight. Four of five games in this series have gone to overtime, and still the total has gone under in each of the last three games. The Heat have gone under in eight of their last nine overall, and Toronto has failed to reach the total in 10 of it's last 12. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
05-10-16 |
Thunder v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 95-91 |
Loss | -107 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs.
The Spurs return home with their second round series versus Oklahoma City deadlocked at two games a piece. While the Thunder did steal a game in San Antonio in Game 2, they know it isn't going to be easy in this pivotal Game 5. This Spurs team was 40-1 at home during the regular season, and they held the Memphis Grizzlies to just 71 points per game in their first round series. Kevin Durant went off for 41 points in Game 4, but he was held to just 22 points per game in the two games in San Antonio. The Thunder had no answer for LaMarcus Aldridge in the first two games in San Antonio, he scored 38 points in Game 1, and 41 in Game 2. The series opener was a blowout, and the Thunder scored just 40 points in the first half, trailing by 33 points. I expect a similar outcome in Game 5, with the home team winning by double digits.
Take SA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-09-16 |
Warriors v. Blazers +5 | Top | 132-125 |
Loss | -115 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Portland Trailblazers.
I had a big bet on the Blazers in Game 3, and I am going back to the well here in Game 4 in Portland. Portland got off to a good start in the last game, and they remain undefeated at home in these playoffs. They have led at the half in all four of their home wins, and yet they are getting a handful of points against the wounded Warriors tonight. The Blazers looked dangerous in Game 2, opening up a huge early lead. Portland led by 11 after the first quarter, and went to the locker room at the half up by eight. The Warriors didn't appear to be concerned, after all, they've been able to come from behind to win games late all year long. If this game is close at halftime, Golden State will probably be saying "we've got them right where we want them". A good start is an absolute must for the Blazers here, and they've been great at home. Portland is 12-1 in it's last 13 home games. Damian Lillard was lights out in the last game, going off for 40 points. This is a confident young team and I expect them to make life difficult for the Warriors here.
Take POR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-09-16 |
Raptors v. Heat UNDER 190 | Top | 87-94 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors are back in the driver's seat after winning Game 3 in Miami, and they have to be encouraged by the play of Kyle Lowry. Their star PG has broken out of a slump, scoring 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in the last game. He's going to need to carry the load with DeMar DeRozan banged up, and Jonas Valanciunas sidelined with an ankle injury. Toronto's center had been dominant in this series, scoring 55 points and pulling in 38 rebounds in 2.5 games. His replacement Bizmack Biyombo is also an excellent defender, but is nowhere near as dangerous offensively. Still this leaves the Raptors in better shape than Miami, who will really miss Hassan Whiteside. We've seen a trend of close, low scoring games so far in this series, with all three decided by six points or less. Two of the three games went under, with the only exception being Game 1, when Kyle Lowry hit a miracle shot from half court to force overtime. The Raptors have failed to reach the total in seven straight on the road, and the Heat have gone under in seven of their last eight overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-09-16 |
Raptors +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 87-94 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors are back in the driver's seat after winning Game 3 in Miami, and they have to be encouraged by the play of Kyle Lowry. Their star PG has broken out of a slump, scoring 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting in the last game. He's going to need to carry the load with DeMar DeRozan banged up, and Jonas Valanciunas sidelined with an ankle injury. Toronto's center had been dominant in this series, scoring 55 points and pulling in 38 rebounds in 2.5 games. His replacement Bizmack Biyombo is also an excellent defender, but is nowhere near as dangerous offensively. Still this leaves the Raptors in better shape than Miami, who will really miss Hassan Whiteside. We've seen a trend of close, low scoring games so far in this series, with all three decided by six points or less. We should expect another competitive game here.
Take TOR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-07-16 |
Warriors v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 108-120 |
Win | 100 | 56 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Portland Trailblazers 1/H.
The Warriors head to Portland with a commanding lead in this series, but the Blazers looked dangerous in Game 2, opening up a huge early lead. Portland led by 11 after the first quarter, and went to the locker room at the half up by eight. The Warriors didn't appear to be concerned, after all, they've been able to come from behind to win games late all year long. A good start is an absolute must for the Blazers in Game 3, and they've been great at home. Portland is 11-1 in it's last 12 home games. They won all three home games in their first round series versus the Clippers, and they led at halftime in all three of those games. The Blazers are actually getting points in tonight's game, and if this game is close at the half, the Warriors would think they have the Blazers right where they want them. Expect Portland to get off to a good start.
Take POR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-06-16 |
Spurs -117 v. Thunder | Top | 100-96 |
Win | 100 | 68 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Antonio Spurs.
After crushing the Thunder in Game 1 of this series, the Spurs may have been guilty of taking their foot off the gas in Game 2. The Thunder won by a score of 98-97 and LaMarcus Aldridge scored 41 points in a losing effort: "It feels horrible," Aldridge said. "Feels like it was wasted. I've never been about trying to get points and not win; I always try to do things to win. If you win, it's totally a different feeling, but losing like that hurts."
The series shifts to Oklahoma City for a pivotal Game 3, and the Spurs can't afford to let the Thunder seize control of this series. San Antonio didn't have much trouble winning on the road this year, going 27-14 during the regular season. They've won twice in their last four visits to Oklahoma City, and they are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 when coming off a loss.
The Thunder are tough at home, but they have already lost once at home in the playoffs, losing 84-85 in Game 2 of their first round series with Dallas. I expect San Antonio to play more like they did in the series opener, rather than how they played in Game 2. It's going to be quite difficult for the Thunder to match their defensive intensity
Take SA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-06-16 |
Cavs v. Hawks UNDER 200 | Top | 121-108 |
Loss | -105 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE@ATL to go UNDER the total.
After a low scoring battle in Game 1, the Cavs came out and set an NBA record with 25 made three-pointers in Game 2. You might as well just completely disregard what happened in the last game in Cleveland, and I think it's far more likely that Game 3 will be a lot more like Game 1.
Three of Cleveland's last four games at Atlanta have failed to reach the total, and the only exception was a 110-108 overtime win for Cleveland. The first half of that game only saw a combined 96 points, and I don't expect any more scoring here in Game 3 in Atlanta.
The Hawks were the best defensive team in the NBA after the All Star break, and they've gone under in seven of their last eight when coming off a loss. The under is 5-1 in Atlanta's last six home games, and 8-2 in the Hawks last 10 overall.
Both of Cleveland's road games in these playoffs have gone under, and LeBron struggled in Detroit, scoring a total of 42 points on 17-of-43 shooting. He was just 2-of-12 from beyond the arc in those games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-05-16 |
Heat v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 92-96 |
Loss | -103 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors.
Toronto came out like gangbusters in the first half of Game 1, but despite a solid effort, Miami was able to keep it close. The Heat trailed by just two points at halftime, and they dominated play in the second half of Game 1, and then again in overtime. Now the Raptors are on the ropes, needing to salvage a split to stay in this series. It seems like Toronto has been in this same situation since the playoffs started, and so far they've managed to play their best basketball when their backs against the wall. We saw the Raptors drop Game 1 in their 1st round series versus the Pacers, only to win Game 2 in a rout (98-87). They out-scored Indiana 27-16 in the first quarter of that game, and took a five point lead to the locker room at the half. The Heat were brutal on the road all season long, and they lost two of three at Charlotte in the first round. They knew they needed to win in Toronto, and they should be quite content to go back to Miami with the series tied 1-1. The Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven coming off a loss, and the Heat are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
Take TOR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-03-16 |
Heat v. Raptors UNDER 191 | Top | 102-96 |
Loss | -105 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIA@TOR to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors finally got the monkey off their backs, ending a 15 year run of playoff disappointment by escaping their first round series versus the Pacers. They overcame adversity, with stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan struggling with their shot through the entire series. It was strong defense and key contributions off the bench that powered the Raptors past Indiana. Only one of the seven games in that series went over the total, and we are likely to see more defensive battles in this series versus the Heat.
Miami is coming off a blowout win in Game 7 over Charlotte, and they held the Hornets to just 74 points on 32.1 percent shooting in the series finale. The final four games of that series went under the total, and the Heat have failed to reach the total in five straight on the road. We've seen roughly 65% of the games in these playoffs go under, and the bookmakers have not been able to adjust quick enough. In fact, in games with a total of 195 or less, the under is 12-2-1. The total for tonight's Game 1 is still higher than it has been in two of the last three meetings between these two teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-02-16 |
Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 202.5 | Top | 98-97 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total.
I took the under in Game 1, and here is what I said pregame: "The Oklahoma City Thunder had little trouble getting past the Mavs in the first round, winning the series in five games. The final three games in that series all went over, and the Thunder averaged 122 points in those games. They can't expect to enjoy that same success in San Antonio, where they lost both meetings during the regular season. Three of the four games in the season series went under, and the Spurs won 102-98 in overtime in the last meeting. San Antonio is by far the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 92.9 points per game. They only allowed the Grizzlies to average 71 points in their two home games in the first round. The Thunder played well defensively in the first round, holding the Mavs to 93.8 points per game."
While the Spurs defense was as good as I expected it to be, the Thunder just couldn't stop San Antonio from scoring. Oklahoma City will need to tighten things up here in Game 2, and I expect a much slower pace after the Thunder make adjustments.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-02-16 |
Hawks v. Cavs UNDER 200.5 | Top | 93-104 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATL@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Cavs have won seven straight against Atlanta, and they've held the Hawks to fewer than 100 points in regulation in all seven of those games. Both teams were impressive on defense in their respective first round matchups. The Hawks allowed Boston to average just 93.8 points per game, while the Cavs held Detroit to an average of 95 points per game. Atlanta has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 10 overall, while the Cavs have gone under in five of their last six when coming off at least three days rest. The under is 23-11 in Cavaliers last 34 Conference Semifinals games. These teams played a low scoring contest in Game 1 of the East Finals last year, with Cleveland winning by a score of 97-89. I expect a similar looking score in Game 1 of this series.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
05-01-16 |
Pacers v. Raptors UNDER 189.5 | Top | 84-89 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@TOR to go UNDER the total. This series has seen more than it's fair share of low scoring games, with five of the six games going under the total. We saw just 184 points scored in Game 6, and I really don't think we can expect more than that tonight in Game 7. Toronto did a decent job defending Paul George, holding him to 21 points on 5-of-14 shooting in Game 6. Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and five of six games going under in this series, we still saw a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan is averaging just 15.8 points per game on 32.8 percent shooting in this series, while Kyle Lowry has shot just 27 percent from the field in three home games against the Pacers. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-30-16 |
Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 201.5 | Top | 92-124 |
Loss | -107 | 67 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total.
The Oklahoma City Thunder had little trouble getting past the Mavs in the first round, winning the series in five games. The final three games in that series all went over, and the Thunder averaged 122 points in those games. They can't expect to enjoy that same success in San Antonio, where they lost both meetings during the regular season. Three of the four games in the season series went under, and the Spurs won 102-98 in overtime in the last meeting. San Antonio is by far the best defensive team in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just 92.9 points per game. They only allowed the Grizzlies to average 71 points in their two home games in the first round. The Thunder played well defensively in the first round, holding the Mavs to 93.8 points per game.
Take UNDER GL, Jesse Schule |
04-29-16 |
Heat v. Hornets -120 | Top | 97-90 |
Loss | -120 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Charlotte Hornets.
The Heat appeared to have complete control of this series, winning the first two games in Miami by a combined 44 points. The Hornets though are on the verge of eliminating Miami after winning three straight, including a 90-88 win at Miami in Game 5. The series shifts back to Charlotte, where the Hornets boast a 30-11 record this season. Miami has really struggled to be competitive on the road all year long, and have only covered once in their last nine away from home. Kemba Walker did not shoot the ball well in Miami, scoring just 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting. He scored 34 points in the last game in Charlotte though, and he should be a big factor tonight. Hassan Whiteside is banged up, and he only played 25 minutes in Game 4. The Hornets have been incredible defensively over the last three games, holding Miami to 84.3 per game on 38.6 percent shooting. Dwyane Wade only scored a total of 29 points on 11-of-31 shooting in the two games in Charlotte. This series should come to a conclusion here in Game 6.
Take CHA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-29-16 |
Raptors +2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-101 |
Loss | -109 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Toronto Raptors.
The Raptors head back to Indiana with a chance to close out the Pacers in Game 6. So far home court hasn't been much of an advantage in this series, with both teams winning once on the road. The Pacers came very close in Game 5, but blew a 13 point lead in the fourth quarter. I think that such a demoralizing loss sets up Indiana for an emotional let down here tonight. The Raptors haven't had any trouble winning at Indiana, and they've covered the spread in nine of their last 11 at Bankers Field House.
Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and four of five games going under in this series, we still see a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan scored 34 points on 10-of-22 shooting in the last game, after struggling earlier in the series. This is a good sign moving forward for the Raptors, and I like their chances of eliminating the Pacers tonight.
Take TOR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-29-16 |
Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 195 | Top | 83-101 |
Win | 100 | 58 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total.
The Raptors head back to Indiana with a chance to close out the Pacers in Game 6. So far home court hasn't been much of an advantage in this series, with both teams winning once on the road. The Pacers came very close in Game 5, but blew a 13 point lead in the fourth quarter. I think that such a demoralizing loss sets up Indiana for an emotional let down here tonight. The Raptors haven't had any trouble winning at Indiana, and they've covered the spread in nine of their last 11 at Bankers Field House.
Indiana scored just nine points in the fourth quarter in Toronto in Game 5, but the total did go over for the first time in the series. Despite a heavy trend of low scoring games in these playoffs, and four of five games going under in this series, we still see a higher total in Game 6 than we saw in Game 5. DeMar DeRozan scored 34 points on 10-of-22 shooting in the last game, after struggling earlier in the series. This is a good sign moving forward for the Raptors, but still they've failed to reach the total in five straight road games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-28-16 |
Hawks -120 v. Celtics | Top | 104-92 |
Win | 100 | 35 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks.
After watching the Hawks just annihilate the Celtics in Game 5 in Atlanta, I think Boston is in big trouble heading back home for Game 6. Celtics leading scorer Isaiah Thomas scored just seven points on 3-of-12 shooting in 29 minutes in Game 5, and he is battling an ankle injury that will prevent him from being 100% for tonight's game. With second leading scorer Avery Bradley out with a hamstring injury, Boston really needs Thomas to carry the load offensively. The Hawks on the other hand have a ton of scoring depth, and they had five players score in double digits on Tuesday night. The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have averaged just 94 points in the first five games. Boston was very fortunate in Game 4, tying the game late to force overtime, but I think their luck is set to run out here in Game 6.
The Celtics won the first game in the regular season series at home by a score of 106-93. The Hawks though won the next three, including a 109-101 win in Boston in December. Both games in Atlanta were blowouts, with the Hawks winning by a combined 35 points. Atlanta finished the season strong winning 15 of it's last 21, and 10 of it's last 12 at home. The Hawks final home game was a 118-107 win over the Celtics, and Paul Millsap scored 31 points and pulled in 16 rebounds in that game. The Celtics had no answer for Millsap in the regular season series, as he's averaged 22.5 points and 10.3 rebounds in the four games.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-27-16 |
Blazers v. Clippers OVER 196.5 | Top | 108-98 |
Win | 102 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on POR@LAC to go OVER the total.
The last time I watched the Clippers play without Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, they won at Utah by a score of 102-99. That was a road win against one of the best defensive teams in the league, in a game that Utah needed to win in order to make the playoffs. Jamal Crawford led the way with 30 points on 9-of-20 shooting. It appeared that the Clippers strategy without their stars was to play a fast paced, high energy game, shooting a ton of threes. They were quite successful going 13-of-29 (44%) from beyond the arc.
Paul Pierce scored 18 points in 33 minutes in that game, and he was 4-of-5 from beyond the arc. The veteran has seen limited action so far this post-season, but expect to see more of "The Truth" tonight. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings, and seven of the last eight overall. The number in all of those games was well over 200, and tonight's total is roughly 10 points lower than it would be in normal circumstances. That may prove to be a case of the bookmakers over-compensating.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-26-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 199 | Top | 83-110 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Hawks took a 2-0 series lead to Boston, and after failing to reach the total in each of the first two games, the number in Game 3 was still over 200. The under is trending huge in these playoffs, and while the bookmakers have made some slight adjustments, I still think this number is way too high, especially when you consider that they only combined to score 161 points in the last game.
The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have proven to be more than capable of playing defense as well. These teams have failed to score 200 points in three of the four games so far, and those were all regular season games. With an increased emphasis on defense in the post-season, they are even less likely to reach that number.
Boston is missing second leading scorer Avery Bradley, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas was held to just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2. The Under is 9-3 in Hawks last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-25-16 |
Heat v. Hornets -150 | Top | 85-89 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Charlotte Hornets.
So far in this series between Miami and Charlotte, it looks like it's going to be very difficult for either team to win on the opponent's home floor. The first three games have all been blowouts, with Miami winning both home games by double-digits, only to lose by 16 in Game 3 at Charlotte. The Hornets were one of the hottest teams in the NBA in the second half of the season, and they were 31-11 at home. The Heat have really played poorly on the road all year long, but they know that as long as they can protect their home court advantage, they will win this series. That puts Charlotte in a must win situation here, and the Hornets should prove to be the more motivated team in Game 4. The home team has won eight of the last 10 in this series, and the Heat have failed to cover in seven of their last eight road games. After playing a limited role in the first two games of the series, rookie Frank Kaminsky stepped up in Game 3 scoring 15 points and pulling in half a dozen rebounds.
Take CHA.
GL,
Jesse Schule. |
04-24-16 |
Hawks +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 95-104 |
Loss | -115 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks.
The Celtics got back into this series with a home win over the Hawks in Game 3, behind a 42 point effort from Isaiah Thomas. While Boston got off to a quick start in that game, it was still quite close in the end. If Boston is going to need 40+ points from Thomas, I don't like the Celtics chances here in Game 4, or for the remainder of the series.
The Celtics won the first meeting between these teams this season at home by a score of 106-93. The Hawks though won the next three, including a 109-101 win in Boston in December. Both games in Atlanta were blowouts, with the Hawks winning by a combined 35 points. Atlanta finished the season strong winning 15 of it's last 21, and 10 of it's last 12 at home. The Hawks final home game was a 118-107 win over the Celtics, and Paul Millsap scored 31 points and pulled in 16 rebounds in that game. The Celtics had no answer for Millsap in the regular season series, as he's averaged 22.5 points and 10.3 rebounds in the four games. The loss of second leading scorer Avery Bradley has put even more pressure on Thomas, and he could have a tough time carrying the load here tonight. Atlanta led the league in defense in the second half of the season, and they have had some success slowing him down. He scored just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-24-16 |
Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 217 | Top | 121-94 |
Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GS@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Warriors looked unstoppable of Game 1 of this series, beating Houston 104-78. They followed that up with another double-digit win at home in Game 2, despite the absence of MVP Steph Curry. It was a different story back in Houston for for Game 3, and the Rockets pulled off the upset winning 97-96. With Curry set to return for Game 4, the bookmakers have Golden State heavily favored this afternoon.
I think it's important to remember that Curry played every game when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, and that series was a lot closer than most expected. Those games were for the most part quite close, and the scores were much lower than anticipated as well. The Warriors were held to 43 percent shooting in Game 3 without Curry, but they shot an even lower 42.9 percent in Game 1, and Curry scored 24 points on 8-of-13 shooting in that game. Coming off an injury, he may not be at 100 percent, and it could be a tough ask for him do any better than that here in Houston in Game 4.
The Warriors have failed to reach the total in six straight road games, and they've gone under in 11 of their last 16 in Houston. They've also gone under in six of their last eight when coming off a loss. This is a huge game for both teams, and we should expect a solid defensive effort all the way around.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-24-16 |
Warriors v. Rockets +9.5 | Top | 121-94 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets.
The Warriors looked unstoppable of Game 1 of this series, beating Houston 104-78. They followed that up with another double-digit win at home in Game 2, despite the absence of MVP Steph Curry. It was a different story back in Houston for for Game 3, and the Rockets pulled off the upset winning 97-96. With Curry set to return for Game 4, the bookmakers have Golden State heavily favored this afternoon.
I think it's important to remember that Curry played every game when these two teams met in last year's playoffs, and that series was a lot closer than most expected. Those games were for the most part quite close, and the scores were much lower than anticipated as well. The Warriors were held to 43 percent shooting in Game 3 without Curry, but they shot an even lower 42.9 percent in Game 1, and Curry scored 24 points on 8-of-13 shooting in that game. Coming off an injury, he may not be at 100 percent, and it could be a tough ask for him do any better than that here in Houston in Game 4.
The Rockets are 20-6 in their last 26 games when playing on two days rest, and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Take Houston.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-23-16 |
Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 194.5 | Top | 83-100 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR@IND to go UNDER the total.
After two low scoring games in Toronto, we saw these teams combine to score just 186 points in Game 3 in Indiana. The bookmakers adjusted with a lower opening total for Game 4, but public money has caused some late line movement, pushing the number right back up to where it was in Games 1 & 2. The trend throughout the playoffs so far has been low scoring games, and I see no reason for either of these two teams to open things up here tonight. With the Raptors up 2-1 and the series heading to Toronto for Game 5, a loss here would likely be the end for the Pacers. We should expect this to be another gritty defensive battle. The way DeMarre Carroll has played defense against Paul George, the Pacers might struggle on offense. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan continue to struggle with their shooting, and I just don't see anybody picking up any easy buckets here in a pivotal Game 4.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-22-16 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 181.5 | Top | 96-87 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SA@MEM to go OVER the total.
The Spurs are in complete control of this series heading into Game 3 in Memphis, and I am not convinced that will change simply because Memphis is at home. That being said, they scored an average of just 71 points in the two games in San Antonio, and I expect them to show at the very least a modest improvement on offense. The under has been really trending in these playoffs, as 14 of 19 games so far have failed to reach the number. This has prompted the bookmakers to adjust, and we see a total in Game 3 that is 10 points lower than it was in Game 1.
The over has been a good bet after the Grizzlies have suffered a double-digit loss, trending at a rate of 7-1-2. They've also played higher scoring games in Memphis, going over at a rate of 20-8-2 in their last 30 home games. The Spurs are still scoring their fair share of points, averaging 100 per game in the post-season. They are smoking hot from beyond the arc, hitting 19-of-39 three-pointers in Games 1-2.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-22-16 |
Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 200.5 | Top | 103-111 |
Loss | -105 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATL@BOS to go UNDER the total.
The Hawks take a 2-0 series lead to Boston, and after failing to reach the total in each of the first two games, the number in Game 3 is still over 200. The under is trending huge in these playoffs, with 14 of the first 19 games failing to hit the total. While the bookmakers have made some slight adjustments, I still think this number is way too high, especially when you consider that they only combined to score 161 points in the last game.
The Hawks had by far the best defense in the NBA since the All Star break, and the Celtics have proven to be more than capable of playing defense as well. These teams have failed to score 200 points in three of the last four meetings in Boston, and those were all regular season games. With an increased emphasis on defense in the post-season, they are even less likely to reach that number.
Boston is missing second leading scorer Avery Bradley, and leading scorer Isaiah Thomas was held to just 16 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Game 2. The Under is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-22-16 |
Cavs v. Pistons UNDER 200.5 | Top | 101-91 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE@DET to go UNDER the total. Here is what I said prior to Game 2: "The Pistons made 15 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting a staggering 51.7 percent from beyond the arc. They shot better than 50% from the field, hanging around in a close game decided by just five points. I don't like their chances of scoring 100 here in Game 2, or for the rest of the series for that matter. The Cavs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding opponents to well below 100 points per game. The trend so far in these playoffs has been that points have been hard to come by. The under is 9-4 through the first 13 post-season games, and only one of five Game 2s has gone over. In fact, we've seen fewer points scored in Game 2 than in Game 1 in all five series that have played twice so far. The Pistons led by seven points early in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and that should be enough to convince the Cavs that they need to be a lot better defensively here in Game 2. The Pistons still think they can win this series: "We don't care who you put in front of us," Reggie Jackson said. "We fear nobody and experience is going to be our best teacher. We're going to learn on the fly. We think we have a chance." I expect a battle here in Game 2, with both teams grinding it out for every possession." The Pistons three-point shooting cooled off significantly in Game 2, hitting just 4-of-17 from beyond the arc. They were held to just 37 points in the second half, and I expect another defensive battle in the Motor City tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-20-16 |
Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 201 | Top | 90-107 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DET@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Pistons made 15 three-pointers in Game 1, shooting a staggering 51.7 percent from beyond the arc. They shot better than 50% from the field, hanging around in a close game decided by just five points. I don't like their chances of scoring 100 here in Game 2, or for the rest of the series for that matter. The Cavs were one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season, holding opponents to well below 100 points per game. The trend so far in these playoffs has been that points have been hard to come by. The under is 9-4 through the first 13 post-season games, and only one of five Game 2s has gone over. In fact, we've seen fewer points scored in Game 2 than in Game 1 in all five series that have played twice so far. The Pistons led by seven points early in the fourth quarter of Game 1, and that should be enough to convince the Cavs that they need to be a lot better defensively here in Game 2. The Pistons still think they can win this series: "We don't care who you put in front of us," Reggie Jackson said. "We fear nobody and experience is going to be our best teacher. We're going to learn on the fly. We think we have a chance." I expect a battle here in Game 2, with both teams grinding it out for every possession.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-19-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 205.5 | Top | 72-89 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Hawks did everything I expected them to do in Game 1, until they nearly collapsed in the fourth quarter allowing Boston to get back into the game. Boston only managed to score 34 points in the first half, and the Celtics might struggle again in Game 2 without Avery Bradley, who is second in the team in scoring behind Isaiah Thomas. Bradley scored 18 points before getting injured in Game 1.
So far in these playoffs seven of 11 games have failed to reach the total, including Atlanta's win in Game 1 of this series. These are two of the best defensive teams in the playoffs, and I expect to see an even lower score than what we saw in Game 1
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-17-16 |
Pistons v. Cavs UNDER 203.5 | Top | 101-106 |
Loss | -110 | 72 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DET@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are a big favorite in their first round series versus Detroit, and they will be asked to cover a double-digit spread in Game 1. The Pistons aren't going to lay down though, and I expect this to be a battle, with both teams playing tough defense from the opening tip off.
The Pistons beat the Cavs in overtime in a meaningless game in the season finale, with both teams resting their starters. Prior to that, the Pistons won in Cleveland by a score of 96-88 in February. The Cavs were the 4th best defensive team in the league this season, and they've been particularly strong defensively when coming off a few days of rest. The under is 5-0 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
It wasn't that surprising that all four playoff games on Saturday failed to reach the total, as history tells us that scoring does down in the post-season. The defenses tighten up, and you just don't see that many easy buckets. I don't think the bookmakers have properly adjusted here with a number higher than 200 for Game 1.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-16-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks -4.5 | Top | 101-102 |
Loss | -110 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Hawks.
The Celtics won the first meeting between these teams this season at home by a score of 106-93. The Hawks though won the next three, including a 109-101 win in Boston in December. Both games in Atlanta were blowouts, with the Hawks winning by a combined 35 points. Atlanta finished the season strong winning 15 of it's last 21, and 10 of it's last 12 at home. The Hawks final home game was a 118-107 win over the Celtics, and Paul Millsap scored 31 points and pulled in 16 rebounds in that game. The Celtics have had no answer for Millsap in the season series, as he's averaged 22.5 points and 10.3 rebounds in the four games.
Boston had a losing record overall on the road this season (20-21), and down the stretch the Celtics lost six of their last 10 away from the Garden. They've only covered the spread twice in their last 14 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better. Famously one of those two occasions was a shocking upset win at Golden State. I think this may be a contributing factor to Boston being one of the more overrated teams heading into these playoffs.
The Celtics rely heavily on PG Isaiah Thomas for offense, and if Atlanta can shut him down, it will spell trouble for Boston. Atlanta led the league in defense in the second half of the season, and Thomas struggled in Atlanta in the last meeting scoring 16 points on 6-of-19 shooting. The Hawks have superior depth and talent, and I expect them to take care of business in Game 1.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-13-16 |
Heat v. Celtics UNDER 206.5 | Top | 88-98 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIA@BOS to go UNDER the total.
The playoffs haven't started yet, but the atmosphere at the Garden should resemble a playoff game tonight when the Celtics host the Heat in the final game of the season. Home court advantage is up for grabs, and we should see both teams play with an added intensity tonight. These teams have a history of playing defensive games, with five of the last six meetings going under. Only once in the last 10 meetings have we seen a total over 200, and they came up well short in that game with Boston winning 101-89 at home. Miami comes in as winners of four of it's last five, holding opponents well below 100 points in all four of those wins. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in nine of their last 12 when playing on one day's rest, and the Heat have gone under in four of their last five when playing on back to back nights. Miami has gone under in seven of it's last 10 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-13-16 |
Pacers v. Bucks UNDER 201.5 | Top | 97-92 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@MIL to go UNDER the totaL. The Indiana Pacers have nothing to prove in their final game of the season, as they already know where they will play in the first round of the playoffs. We should expect the Pacers to rest their starters here in Milwaukee, but don't expect the Bucks to treat this like a meaningless game. After a frustrating season, finishing at home on a positive note would be big for the Bucks. They have a solid 23-17 home record, and should be more than capable of beating the Indiana bench players. Even at full strength, the Pacers aren't a great road team with a record of 18-22 outside Indiana. They've failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games, and they have gone under in six straight when playing on back to back nights. The Bucks have gone under in seven of their last nine in Milwaukee.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-12-16 |
Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 205 | Top | 98-102 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKC@SA to go UNDER the total.
Coming off three straight losses, you have to think Spurs coach Greg Popovich wants to give his team something to be positive about heading into the playoffs. They host Oklahoma City tonight, and the Thunder are expected to rest their starts. The last time Oklahoma City played at San Antonio, the Spurs won by a score of 92-85.
The Thunder shot just 38.3 percent from the field in that game, and were just 2-of-18 from beyond the arc. I don't expect their backups to have any more success at the AT&T Center tonight. The Spurs have won three of their last four home meetings with Oklahoma City, and they held the Thunder to an average of just 88 points in those wins.
The Spurs #1 ranked defense held Golden State to just 92 points on Sunday, but they couldn't stop the Warriors from winning their 72nd game of the season. I expect a similar effort on defense tonight, which should result in a convincing win over a short-handed opponent.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-09-16 |
Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 207 | Top | 107-118 |
Loss | -109 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOS@ATL to go UNDER the total.
The Celtics will play in Atlanta in the second game of a back to back, after beating up on Milwaukee at home last night. This is a huge game for both teams, with home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs up for grabs. The Celtics will have their work cut out for them, as Atlanta has really been on a roll. The Hawks have won 14 of their last 18 overall, and they held opponents under 100 points in 11 of those 14 wins. They rank 6th in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 98.9 points per game, and they've held Boston below 100 points in three of their last four home meetings with the Celtics. These two teams have failed to reach the total in nine of the last 13 meetings in Atlanta. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, while the Hawks have gone under in nine of their last 12 home games. With such high stakes in tonight's game, we should expect to see both teams fighting hard on defense. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-08-16 |
Grizzlies v. Mavs UNDER 194.5 | Top | 93-103 |
Loss | -105 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEM@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Mavs winning streak is now at five games heading into tonight's home game against Memphis. They have been dominant on defense during that span, holding opponents to just 86 points per game. The bookmakers have been slow to adjust to the fact that teams playing for playoff spots tend to tighten up the defense, and the total was over 200 in each game during the Mavs run. It appears that they've spotted the under trend, and have adjusted by shaving a few points off the number. I don't think they've adjusted enough though, as not one of the Mavs last five games has reached tonight's number.
Their opponent tonight is down three key starters, including their PG Mike Conley. Memphis is not a great offensive team at the best of times, as one of just half a dozen NBA teams that fail to average 100 points per game. The Mavs are also down a starting PG, although J.J. Barea has been brilliant filling in for D-Will. Dirk Nowitzki is really struggling offensively, shooting just 23-of-84 over his last five games. Backup center Salah Mejri has been a defensive dynamo, with seven blocks in his last three games, despite averaging less than 20 minutes.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-07-16 |
Bulls v. Heat UNDER 206 | Top | 98-106 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* (GOW) play on CHI@MIA to go UNDER the total. Last week's big bet in the NBA was on the under in a game between the Bulls and the Pistons, and that Bulls lost that game at home by a score of 94-90. They now sit 2.5 games back of the eighth and final playoff spot in the East, and whatever slim hopes they have will end tonight if they lose in Miami. The Heat are in a battle for one of the top four spots, trailing Boston by just half a game. Miami is coming off a 107-89 home win over the Pistons, putting on another defensive clinic. The Heat rank 4th in the NBA in opponent's scoring average, surrendering just 98.3 points per game. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of the last eight. Nine of those 10 games saw a total below 200, and tonight's total is far higher than it was in any of those previous games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
04-07-16 |
Suns v. Rockets -11.5 | Top | 124-115 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Rockets.
The Rockets are down, but they aren't dead yet! They put up a hell of a fight last night in Dallas, but came up just short losing 88-85. That score fell well short of the inflated total, and here is what I said prior to tip off: "Houston is one of the league's highest scoring teams, but as they've been battling for a playoff spot, they've trended toward lower scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of their last eight." They played pretty well defensively last night, holding the Mavs to 88 points on 41.3 percent shooting. They should continue to play strong defense against Phoenix, a team that has scored an average of 96 points per game while losing six straight. PG Brandon Knight is done for the season, and that's not going to help the Suns offense any. The Mavs are two games clear of Houston after last night's win, and Utah is one game up on the Rockets. The two teams play each other before the end of the season, ensuring that one of the two will lose ground. The good news for the Rockets is that they have a much easier schedule than the two teams ahead of them, so we should still see a solid effort here at home tonight.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-06-16 |
Rockets v. Mavs UNDER 208.5 | Top | 86-88 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOU@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Rockets and the Mavericks will play a Titanic game in Dallas tonight, with the eighth and Final playoff spot in the West up for grabs. The Mavs have won four straight, putting them in seventh in the West, one game ahead of Houston. During that span they've put on a defensive clinic, holding opponents to an average of just 86 points. The Rockets are on the outside looking in, sitting in ninth. Houston is one of the league's highest scoring teams, but as they've been battling for a playoff spot, they've trended toward lower scoring games, failing to reach the total in six of their last eight. They don't score quite as much on the road, and they've gone under in four straight away from Houston. We should see a cautious approach from two teams fighting for their lives, and tonight's total appears to be a little inflated. As I have said several times this week: "I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late."
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-06-16 |
Pistons v. Magic UNDER 208.5 | Top | 108-104 |
Loss | -107 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DET@ORL.
After a lopsided loss at Miami last night, the Pistons have slid all the way to eighth in the Eastern Conference, clinging to the final playoff spot. They have a two game lead on the ninth place Bulls, but they can't afford to keep losing or they could miss the playoffs all together. A win in Orlando tonight would give them plenty of breathing room, and I expect to see a solid effort. Detroit has failed to score 100 points in five straight games, and it has only surrendered an average of 97.8 points during that span. These two teams have a history of playing high scoring games, going over the total in six of the last seven meetings. Tonight's total is significantly higher than it was in any of those games, and there's a lot more at stake for the Pistons here tonight. The Pistons have gone under in nine of their last 11 road games, and five straight overall. They have won three straight in this series, holding the Magic to an average of 96 points in those games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-05-16 |
Pistons v. Heat UNDER 204 | Top | 89-107 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DET@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Heat host the Piston tonight in a game with massive playoff implications. The Heat are fighting for home court advantage in the first round, while Detroit still needs to clinch one of the last spots in the East. The Pistons have won each of the previous two meetings this season, and both those games went under the total. I bet on the under in Detroit's last game, a 94-90 win over the Bulls in Chicago.
Here is what I said prior to tip off: "I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late. The Pistons lost at home to Dallas last night, three days after beating the Thunder 88-82. Detroit has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last nine on the road, while the Bulls have gone under in five straight. The total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings"
It's a similar situation here tonight, and we see another inflated total in a game that appears to feature two teams trending toward low scoring games. The under is 18-7-1 in the last 26 meetings in Miami. The Heat have failed to reach the total in four of their last five, while Detroit has gone under in eight of it's last 10 road games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-04-16 |
Villanova v. North Carolina UNDER 151.5 | Top | 77-74 |
Win | 100 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VILL@UNC to go UNDER the total.
Both the Wildcats and the Tar Heels were executing on offense in their final four wins, and each team put plenty of points on the board. Still, neither team came even close in their respective Final Four games to reaching the inflated total for Monday's Final. When you get deep into the tournament, the stakes get higher, and that usually means the defense clamps down even more. The Wildcats defense has been particularly impressive, allowing opponents to average just 60.6 points on 42 percent shooting in the tournament so far. This will be the third time since 2010 that the Championship Game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston. Because these games are being played in a football stadium, it is thought to change to the depth perception of the shooters, bringing down scoring averages. This is what's known as the "Dome Effect". Both ESPN and the New York Times published articles discussing this phenomenon over the last few days, and I noticed one interesting stat from ESPN. According to their FiveThirtyEight article, in 12 NCAA Tournament games played at NRG Stadium, teams have scored an average of 65.4 points ON 44.5 percent shooting. In order to reach tonight's total, both teams would have to eclipse that average by at least 10 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-02-16 |
Pistons v. Bulls UNDER 205.5 | Top | 94-90 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* (GOY) play on DET@CHI to go UNDER the total.
Down but not out, the Chicago Bulls have shown a lot of character winning back-to-back road games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They host the Detroit Pistons tonight, and the Pistons are one of the teams they are trying to catch. They trail eighth place Indiana by one game, and they are 1.5 games back of Detroit. That means that tonight's game might as well be a playoff game, because the stakes don't get any higher.
I think the bookmakers have failed to take this into consideration when they come out with such a high total. Teams battling for survival tend to play a lot tougher defense, and both these teams have been playing low scoring games of late. The Pistons lost at home to Dallas last night, three days after beating the Thunder 88-82. Detroit has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last nine on the road, while the Bulls have gone under in five straight. The total for tonight's game is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-02-16 |
Villanova -130 v. Oklahoma | Top | 95-51 |
Win | 100 | 150 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* (GOM) play on the Villanova Wildcats.
The Oklahoma Sooners have had an impressive journey to the Final Four, and there's no denying that they deserve to be here. They have yet to play an opponent as dangerous as Villanova though. Oregon's a great team, but the Ducks don't play defense like the Wildcats, and their schedule in the Pac12 isn't as challenging. Prior to beating Oregon, the Sooners had failed to cover in seven of their previous eight.
They played close games against the likes of VCU, Hawaii and failed to dominate versus California Bakersfield. They've survived mostly due to Buddy Heild, who has averaged 30 points over his last three games. This is something that won't be unnoticed by Villanova, and if the Cats can slow down Heild, they'll likely be booking a ticket to the championship game. West Virginia held Buddy to just six points on 1-of-8 shooting in the Big12 tournament, and I expect Villanova to try to replicate that performance. They certainly executed their defensive game plan against Kansas, completely shutting down Perry Ellis in their Elite 8 victory.
Villanova has been clinical at the free throw line in the tournament so far, hitting 82.7 percent. That could be the difference in this game, as the Sooners have hit below 70 percent from the charity stripe over their last five games. The Wildcats are holding opponents to just 64.2 points per game over their last five, pretty impressive when you consider they played Kansas, Miami, Iowa and Seton Hall during that span. The Sooners are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games versus teams with a winning record, and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.
Take VILL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
04-01-16 |
Wolves v. Jazz UNDER 194.5 | Top | 85-98 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIN@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
This is an absolute do or die game for the Jazz, and I expect them to put on a defensive clinic against a Minnesota team that is just going through the motions. The Timberwolves are coming off a 99-79 home loss to the Clippers, and they lost at home to Utah by a score of 93-84 last Saturday. These teams have gone over the total in three of the last seven meetings, but only one of those games saw enough points to reach tonight's total. That game was a 106-104 overtime win for Minnesota last March. The Jazz have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 overall, and six of their last eight at home. They held the defending champions Golden State to 89 points in regulation in their last game, and they've held five of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-31-16 |
Celtics v. Blazers -144 | Top | 109-116 |
Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Portland Trail Blazers. The Celtics are coming off a blowout loss at the Staples Center, losing to the Clippers by a whopping 24 points. They will face the Blazers in Portland tonight, in their first game of a back to back. This is a terrible spot for Boston, as they will undoubtedly be looking ahead to tomorrow's game against the NBA's #1 team at Golden State. As difficult as it is for opposing teams at Oracle Arena, playing in Portland is no picnic. Boston hasn't had much success on the road lately, going 1-6 ATS in it's last seven road games. The Celtics are also a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Blazers are 24-12 in Portland this season, and that comes after a slow start. Boston has struggled offensively without Jay Crowder, averaging just 100.7 points per game while going 4-5 since his injury. The Blazers have won five straight at home, scoring an average of 112 points in those victories. Take POR. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-31-16 |
Bulls v. Rockets UNDER 214.5 | Top | 103-100 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHI@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Houston Rockets have a reputation for playing high scoring games, but we normally see teams tighten up come playoff time, and that's certainly been the case for Houston. The Rockets are currently in a three way tie with Utah and Dallas, with all three teams battling for the final two spots in the Western Conference. The Rockets have struggled, winning just twice in their last six games. They failed to reach the total in all but one of those games.
They host the Chicago Bulls, who are also fighting for their lives. Chicago is still two games back of Indiana for the last spot in the East, but they kept their hopes alive with a 98-86 win at Indiana on Tuesday. The Bulls have gone under in six of their last seven overall. Chicago has won three of the last four in this series, and Houston has scored an average of just 98 points in those games.
This is essentially a do or die game for both teams, which should mean no easy points. Expect both teams to play intense defense on every possession, and with a sky high total, I expect them to come up well short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-30-16 |
Heat v. Lakers UNDER 207 | Top | 100-102 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIA@LAL to go UNDER the total. After a string of uncharacteristically high scoring games, the Miami Heat got back to business on Friday, defeating the Orlando Magic by a score of 108-97. They followed that up with another under in a home win over Brooklyn three days later. I cashed in with the winning total in both those games, and I still think bookmakers are offering an inflated total in tonight's game at LA. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in four of the last five meetings, and nine of the last 11. Most of those games saw a total below 200, and only once did we see a number as high as we see tonight. They've failed to reach the total in four straight meetings at the Staples Center, and the Lakers failed to score 100 points in all of those games. The Heat only broke the century mark once during that span, and that was a 101-95 win on Christmas Day 2013. Miami's defense is ranked 4th in the NBA, allowing opponents to average just over 98 points per game. The Lakers offense is ranked 29th, and they scored just 70 points on 30.6 percent shooting in a home loss to the Wizards on Monday. Rumors of a divided locker room have surfaced, and a rookie PG DeAngelo Russell is at the center of the controversy. The 19 year old appears to be responsible for secretly recording a private conversation with a teammate, and the embarrassing contents of that conversation have since become public. This is a complete disaster for the Lakers, and a situation that isn't going to go away any time soon.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-29-16 |
Rockets v. Cavs UNDER 214 | Top | 106-100 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOU@CLE to go UNDER the total.
The Rockets head to Cleveland in a desperate situation, currently in an eighth place tie with the Dallas Mavericks for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The good news is, they've actually owned the Cavs in recent years, winning six of the last seven meetings. More good news is that the Cavs have decided to rest LeBron James tonight. They recently rested James in a home game against Dallas, and just barely beat the Mavs by a score of 99-98. Cleveland hasn't done well at all when James doesn't play, failing to cover in 14 of 15 games since 2014. They failed to reach the total in 12 of those 15 games. Despite that, tonight's total is sky high, in fact higher than any of the previous 10 meetings between the two teams. Houston has been playing low scoring games lately, failing to reach the total in four of it's last five overall, and four of it's last five on the road. The Cavs have gone under in five of their last six when playing one two day's rest.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-29-16 |
BYU v. Valparaiso -105 | Top | 70-72 |
Win | 100 | 89 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Valparaiso Crusaders.
Valparaiso stunned the St. Mary's Gaels in a 60-44 win in the NIT quarterfinals last week. It was the lowest point total of the year for a St. Mary's team that finished at the top of the WCC standings. The Crusaders will face the third place team from the WCC in the NIT semifinals, and I think the BYU Cougars are a little overrated coming into MSG. The Cougars just barely escaped with a home win over Creighton on Tuesday. The Crusaders don't mind playing away from home, boasting a road record of 12-4. One of those losses was a close game at Oregon, and impressive result considering the season the Ducks had. Last week's impressive defensive effort against the Gaels shouldn't really be a surprise, as they've held opponents to an average of just 63.5 points on 38.9 percent shooting this season. That's 10 points less than the Cougars have given up, and opponents are shooting 42 percent against BYU. The Crusaders have been far better from the free throw line all season long, and they average over 75 percent at neutral sites. They also have an edge in rebounding, and I think this is going to create all sorts of problems for the Cougars.
Take VAL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-28-16 |
Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 193 | Top | 75-123 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAL@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Jazz are coming off a commanding 93-84 win at Minnesota, and they'll need to keep the ball rolling tonight as they are just one game ahead of the 9th place Dallas Mavericks, and half a game up on Houston. They will host the struggling LA Lakers, who have lost seven of their last eight. The Lakers are playing on back to back nights, coming off a 101-88 home loss to the Wizards last night. Both Kobe Bryant and DeAngelo Russell are playing through injuries, and playing on no rest isn't going to be easy, especially against one of the top defenses in the league. Utah is the second lowest scoring team in the NBA, but it makes up for it with stellar defense. The Jazz have held opponents to an average of just 89.7 points and 7.0 makes from 3-point range over it's last nine games. The Jazz have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven overall, and five of their last six at home. Utah has trended under at a rate of 28-13-1 in it's last 42 home games versus teams with a losing road record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-28-16 |
Spurs v. Grizzlies +7.5 | Top | 101-87 |
Loss | -105 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizz are all banged up, missing starters Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Even with their thin lineup, they gave the Spurs a run for their money in a 110 -104 loss at San Antonio on Friday. LaMarus Aldridge proved to be the difference in that game, as the Grizzlies simply couldn't stop him. He scored 32 points on 12-of-16 shooting, and pulled in a dozen rebounds. Greg Popovich rested his starters in a 111-92 loss at Oklahoma City on Saturday, and we don't expect to see the starters log a lot of minutes here in Memphis. The visitors are asked to cover an awful big spread here in a meaningless game, and I think Memphis is very likely to win this game outright. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games versus teams with a winning home record. The Grizz are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Take MEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-28-16 |
Nets v. Heat UNDER 211.5 | Top | 99-110 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BKN@MIA to go UNDER the total.
After a string of uncharacteristically high scoring games, the Miami Heat got back to business on Friday, defeating the Orlando Magic by a score of 108-97. I bet on the under in that game, and here is what I had to say prior to tip off: "The Heat rank 4th in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 98.2 points per game. They are particularly strong at home, boasting a record of 23-13. These two teams have gone over the total in six of the last 10 meetings, but the total for tonight's game is about 10 points higher than it was in any of those previous contests."
We see a similar situation tonight, as the Heat will host bottom feeders Brooklyn. Seven of the last 10 meetings have gone over, but the total in those games was at least 10 points lower than tonight's number. Only one of those 10 games saw enough points to reach tonight's total, and that game was a home win for Brooklyn. The Nets are coming off back to back home wins, setting them up for a let down here in Miami. The Under is 7-3 in Heat last 10 home games versus teams with a losing road record. Sitting just half a game behind Boston, and a half game ahead of the surging Hornets, this is a key game for Miami in the playoff race. We should expect the Heat to put on a defensive clinic here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-26-16 |
Villanova v. Kansas -145 | Top | 64-59 |
Loss | -145 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. I have a ton of respect for the Villanova Wildcats, who have played as well as anyone in the tournament so far. The fact is, I know the Wildcats have weaknesses, and the same is a lot more difficult to say about Kansas. As well as Villanova played in their blowout win over Miami, they did allow the Hurricanes to shoot 52.3 percent from the field, and 58.8 percent from three-point range. They got away with a less than stellar defensive effort because they barely missed a shot themselves, and they dominated Miami on the boards. They won't get away with that here against Kansas, a team that is perhaps the biggest, most athletic in the country. The Jayhawks aren't just winning, they are covering the spread as well, going 14-3 ATS in their last 17 overall. Kansas is cruising, coming off 17 straight wins, 11 of those in games decided by at least 10 points. Kansas is 9-1 ATS in it's last 10 neutral site game, and has won 10 of 11 at neutral sites this season. The Jayhawks are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 non-conference games. Take KAN. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-25-16 |
Indiana v. North Carolina -5.5 | Top | 86-101 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on North Carolina.
The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send five teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those five teams will be a favorite in their next game, and one of those is the Tar Heels who play Indiana on Friday.
The Hoosiers showed a lot of grit beating Kentucky, but they could be due for a let down here against a tougher opponent. It will be an even tougher task if sophomore guard Robert Johnson isn't healthy. Johnson left the last game with an ankle injury, and it looked pretty ugly. Early reports suggest that he's going to try to play through the pain, but this has been a lingering injury that caused him to sit out of the BIG10 Tournament, and Indiana got knocked out in the first round by Michigan.
The Tar Heels physically dominated Providence, out-rebounding the Friars 42-24. They shot 52.5 percent from the field, and scored 19 of their 85 points at the free throw line. North Carolina is significantly better from the charity stripe, hitting 78.9 percent over it's last five games, and hitting 77.8 percent at neutral sites this year. If Indiana commits fouls, the Tar Heels will make them pay.
Take UNC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-25-16 |
Magic v. Heat UNDER 211 | Top | 97-108 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORL@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Magic come into Miami as losers of five in a row, and they'll have a tough time here against one of the top defensive teams in the league. The Heat rank 4th in the NBA with an opponent's scoring average of just 98.2 points per game. They are particularly strong at home, boasting a record of 23-13. These two teams have gone over the total in six of the last 10 meetings, but the total for tonight's game is about 10 points higher than it was in any of those previous contests. They've scored fewer points in Miami, as the under is 7-3 in Orlando's last 10 trips to American Airlines Arena. The Magic have also been riding an under trend on the road, failing to reach the total in six of their last seven away from Orlando. The Heat managed just 88 points in a loss at San Antonio in their last game, their lowest points total in 27 games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-25-16 |
Iowa State v. Virginia -5 | Top | 71-84 |
Win | 100 | 140 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Cavs (GOW).
The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send five teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those five teams will be a favorite in their next game. I think the strongest of the five might be the Virginia Cavs, and I bet on Virginia in their last game against Butler.
Here is what I had to say before the game: "The Cavs are one of the hottest teams in the country, coming off a blowout win over the Hampton Pirates in the first round of the tournament. They finished second in the ACC behind North Carolina with a record of 13-5, and they lost a close game by a score of 61-57 to UNC in the ACC Championship Game. They had won five in a row prior to that, and one of those was a home win over North Carolina by a score of 79-74."
Virginia will face Iowa State in Chicago on Friday, and the Cyclones did not finish the season strong at all. They lost their last five games away from home to Texas Tech, Baylor, West Virginia, Kansas and Oklahoma. They had a pretty soft start to the tournament, with wins over 13th seeded Iona, and 12th seeded Arkansas Little Rock. One of the biggest weaknesses for Iowa State is a lack of depth, as they really don't get much production from their bench. While it didn't hurt them against lesser opponents, it's very likely that it will be a factor against the best defensive team remaining in the tournament. The Cavs have allowed opponents to average just 58.2 points per game, while winning eight of nine games at neutral sites.
Take UVA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-24-16 |
Duke +3.5 v. Oregon | Top | 68-82 |
Loss | -110 | 46 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The ACC is still the strongest conference in the country, and that's not even debatable. Last year's Champions Duke were on of three ACC teams to reach the Elite 8, and this year the ACC will send six teams to the Sweet 16. Four of those teams will be a favorite in their next game. The defending champions Duke will actually be getting points against the Pac12 champs Oregon, and I strongly disagree with the line here.
In my opinion people are failing to account for the fact that Duke had a much tougher schedule, playing the likes of Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina. Oregon's wins over the likes of Utah, Arizona and California pale in comparison. Duke lost 10 games during the season, but seven of those 10 losses came in games decided by five points or less. They lost by two versus Syracuse and losses to Notre Dame and North Carolina came by just four points.
One game in particular stands out, and some might see their 77-75 loss to the Utes as evidence that they could struggle against an even better team from the Pac12. I think they've grown as a team since then, and it's also important to remember that Grayson Allen only scored seven points in that game while playing through flu-like symptoms.
Allen has stepped up his game in the tournament, much like he did last year in the championship game versus Wisconsin. Duke has the highest winning percentage in NCAA Tournament history, and you have to give plenty of credit to Coach K. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last eight tournament games, and they look good as a dog to an Oregon team that has failed to cover in four straight versus the ACC.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-24-16 |
Texas A&M v. Oklahoma -130 | Top | 63-77 |
Win | 100 | 77 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma Sooners.
The Aggies have no business playing in the Sweet 16, after being out-played badly by Northern Iowa for all but the last 44 seconds on Sunday. While it was a miraculous comeback, I am not going to give Texas A&M much credit for pulling it off. The fact is they just didn't play well at all. They missed 11 free throws, and only connected on 7-of-31 three-point attempts. Leading scorer Danuel House was terrible all night (until the final minute). He finished the game with 22 points on 6-of-17 shooting. There's no doubt in my mind, that if the Aggies play anything like they did on Sunday, this game will be all Oklahoma.
The Sooners will go as far as Buddy Hield can take them, and so far in the tournament he's delivered. Hield scored 36 points and made six three-point shots in the win over VCU. He leads the country with 137 made three-pointers, and when he's in the zone he's the best player in the nation. Oklahoma comes in shooting 40.9 percent from beyond the arc over it's last five games, while the Aggies have struggled from the perimeter, hitting just over 29 percent during that same span. The Sooners have also been better at the free throw line, hitting 72.5 percent over those last five games.
Take OKLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-23-16 |
Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 209.5 | Top | 122-101 |
Loss | -110 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ATL@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Wizards are hot, coming into tonight's home game versus the Hawks as winners of four straight. They've surrendered an average of just 95 points per game during that span, and their last win came on the road at Atlanta. The Hawks are looking to avenge that loss in the second game of this home and home set tonight, and Atlanta is one of the league's best defensive teams. Atlanta ranks 6th in the NBA limiting opponents to an average of just 99.1 points per game. Prior to being upset by the Wizards, they had won five straight, and allowed less than 100 points in four of those five wins. These teams have actually gone over in seven of the last 10 meetings, but that stat is a little misleading. Seven of those 10 games saw a total below 200, and not one of those 10 games saw a number as high as tonight's total. Only twice in the last 10 meetings did they score enough points to reach this inflated total. The Hawks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 when playing on one day's rest, and four straight when coming off a loss.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-21-16 |
Bucks v. Pistons UNDER 206 | Top | 91-92 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIL@DET to go UNDER the total.
The Bucks lost 94-85 at home to Utah last night, and they'll be hard pressed to earn a better result on the road in the second leg of a back to back. They struggle to score at the best of times, as one of just a handful of teams that average less than 100 points per game. The total for tonight's game looks a little inflated, as the two teams haven't scored a combined 200 points in any of the last seven head to head meetings. The Pistons are on a roll, coming into tonight's game off back to back home wins. They rank among the top defensive teams in the Eastern Conference, allowing opponents to average just over 100 points per game. The Bucks have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. The Bucks average just 5.4 made three-pointers per game, only Minnesota is worse with 5.2 per game.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-20-16 |
Wisconsin v. Xavier -4 | Top | 66-63 |
Loss | -114 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Xavier Musketeers.
The Musketeers finished just behind Villanova in the Big East, and they split the season series with the Wildcats, winning the most recent meeting at home by a score of 90-83. They are a well balanced team that can do it all, on offense, defense, on the boards and boy can they score. This should give them a massive edge against a Wisconsin team that struggles to score points. The Badgers just don't have the shooters they had last year, and often they have a tough time putting the biscuit in the basket. Xavier has averaged 84.6 points per game over it's last five, while the Badgers have scored just 63 points on 40.1 percent shooting during that span. Xavier also owns the boards, averaging just short of 40 rebounds per game in it's neutral site games, and 37.2 rebounds per game over it's last five. Superior free throw shooting, three point shooting, scoring and rebounding should prove to be far too much for a Badgers team that has scored 60 points per game on 36.2 percent shooting while going 2-2 at neutral sites this season. Xavier is 13-3 in it's last 16 versus the Big10, and the Musketeers won their last game against Wisconsin by a score of 60-49.
Take XAV.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-20-16 |
Jazz v. Bucks UNDER 192 | Top | 94-85 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UTAH@MIL to go UNDER the total. The Jazz are back on track, coming into tonight's game versus the Bucks in Milwaukee as winners of four of their last five. They've played stellar defense, allowing an average of 87.6 points per game during that span. The Jazz own the league's 2nd ranked defense, allowing an average of 96.7 points per game. They face a Milwaukee team that averages under 100 points per game, ranking 23rd in the NBA in scoring. The Bucks are much better defensively than they are on offense, and they have failed to reach the total in four of their last five home games. Utah's leading scorer Gordon Hayward has missed two of the last three games with plantar fasciitis. He played 37 minutes against the Bulls last night, scoring just nine points on 4-of-13 shooting. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last nine head to head meetings, and the Bucks lost 84-81 at Salt Lake City in the most recent meeting. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-19-16 |
Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 217 | Top | 79-87 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
his is a 10* play on GS@SA to go UNDER the total. The Spurs are the NBA's best defensive team, holding opponents to an average of just 92.5 points per game. They are still undefeated at home, and they host the League's top team in a marquee matchup on Saturday night. This is a revenge spot for the Spurs, who lost 120-90 at Golden State earlier this year. Note that even that high scoreline wasn't enough to reach the total for tonight's game. In fact, not one of the last 10 meetings between the two teams has seen enough points to reach this inflated number The Warriors are gunning for a record, but this might be one game that they are willing to concede. If things get out of hand early, I think it would be wise for Steve Kerr to rest his starters here in the second game of a back-to-back. If the roles were reversed, you can bet that's would Greg Popovich would do. The under is s 9-3 in Spurs last 12 overall, and four of the Warriors last five visits to San Antonio have failed to reach the total. The Warriors have failed to reach the total in five straight versus teams with a winning record. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-19-16 |
Yale v. Duke -6 | Top | 64-71 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. The Yale Bulldogs played about as well as they can possibly play in their opening round win over Baylor, but I think they'll be in way over their heads against Duke on Saturday. We saw Duke handle a bit of adversity overcoming a halftime deficit to beat UNC Wilmington by eight points in their first game, and the Blue Devils are a short favorite here versus Yale. These teams played early in the season, and Duke won that game 80-61. This Blue Devils team has the highest winning percentage in NCAA Tournament history. They have covered the spread in five straight versus the Ivy League, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tourney games. After a slow start against the Seahawks, Marshall Plumlee opted to discard his protective mask, playing with a broken nose fully exposed. He took over down low, scoring 23 points on 9-of-10 shooting. Grayson Allen didn't have a great night shooting, but he scored the majority of his 23 points at the free throw line, going 15-of-17. In the end, Duke just had too much firepower for the Seahawks, and I expect it to be the same story here against Yale. Take DUKE. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-18-16 |
VCU -4 v. Oregon State | Top | 75-67 |
Win | 100 | 96 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the VCU Rams.
The Oregon State Beavers somehow found their way into the NCAA Tournament, much to the dismay of St. Mary's, Valparaiso and a handful of other more deserving teams. Their tournament run is likely to come to an end pretty quickly though, facing VCU in the first round. The Beavers finished in the middle of the pack in the Pac12, with a 10-10 conference record. They were not a great team away from home, going 4-7 on the road, scoring an average of 68.7 points on 43.3 percent shooting in those games.
VCU won seven of it's last 10 overall, and six of those seven wins came by a double digit margin. They finished tied with Dayton and St. Bonaventure at the top of the A-10 with a 14-4 record. Unlike the Beavers, the Rams had no trouble winning on the road, with a record of 7-4. The Rams should have a big edge in both free throw shooting as well as rebounding, and it's tough to beat teams that hit their free throws and win the battle on the boards.
Oregon State will really miss forward Trey Tinkle, who is one of the team's top scorers: "He's doubtful," Wayne Tinkle said. "The timing of his injury is very unfortunate. He was having an incredible freshman season for us. We'll miss his toughness and playmaking ability for sure."
Take VCU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-17-16 |
Suns v. Jazz UNDER 198 | Top | 69-103 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHX@UTAH to go UNDER the total. The Jazz are back on track, coming into tonight's home game versus Phoenix off three consecutive wins. They've played stellar defense, allowing an average of 92 points per game during that span. The Jazz own the league's 2nd ranked defense, allowing an average of 97 points per game. The Suns aren't exactly a prolific scoring team, ranking 22nd in the NBA in scoring. Three of the last four meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and the under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings. The Jazz may need to be even better defensively tonight, missing their leading scorer Gordon Hayward. The under is 27-13-1 in Jazz last 41 home games versus teams with a losing road record. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schue |
03-17-16 |
Yale v. Baylor -5.5 | Top | 79-75 |
Loss | -106 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears. We've seen Harvard come out of the Ivy League and shake things up when playing teams from the bigger conferences in the NCAA Tournament. I don't expect this Yale team to compete at that level though, not against a high scoring Baylor team that has been battling it out with the Big Boys of the Big12. Keep in mind that three of the nation's Top 10 teams come from this conference (#1 Kansas, #7 Oklahoma and #8 West Virginia). The Bears last game was a 70-66 loss to #1 ranked Kansas in the Big12 tournament. They had previously beat Texas by double-digits, and I think it's not asking to much of Baylor to beat the Ivy League champs just as easily. Yale doesn't match up well against Baylor's size, with senior forward Justin Sears their tallest starter at 6"8. The Bulldogs have held their own, out-rebounding Ivy League teams by a a double digit margin. It's likely to be a different story against a Baylor team that ranks 15th nationally in rebound margin. Baylor went out early last year, but I don't think they'll let this game get away. They should be able to dominate against an overrated Yale team that faced just one ranked team this season, losing to Duke by 19 points. Take BAY. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-14-16 |
Cavs v. Jazz OVER 194.5 | Top | 85-94 |
Loss | -102 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLE@UTAH to go OVER the total. I bet on last night's Jazz game to go over in Sacramento, and here is what I had to say prior to tip off: "Because the Jazz are one of the top defensive teams in the NBA, we often see the bookmakers adjust with a lower number, even in games against teams like Sacramento that tend to play a lot of high scoring games. I don't think they have paid enough attention to Utah's home/away splits though, as clearly their road record of 10-22 would indicate that their defense isn't that strong away from Salt Lake City." The Jazz return home to play their second game of a back to back against the surging Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have won six of their last seven overall, scoring an average of 114 points in those victories. They've won five of their last six versus the Jazz, and they've scored an average of 108 points in those five wins. These two teams have gone over the total in eight of the last 10 overall meetings, and eight of the last 10 at Salt Lake City. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-13-16 |
Kentucky -3.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 82-77 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kentucky Wildcats. Texas A&M crushed LSU in the SEC Semi Final yesterday, winning by a whopping 33 points. The Tigers set a new mark for futility, as their 38 total points was the fewest scored by a Power 5 team this season. While it was an impressive performance by Texas A&M, beating up on an a vulnerable LSU team is perhaps not the best way to warmup for a clash with the Wildcats. Kentucky started slow this season, but they come into this game playing as well as anyone. The Wildcats have won five of their last six, with those wins come by an average margin of over 17 points. They shot out the lights against Georgia yesterday, battling back after trailing 49-44 at halftime. They shot 50 percent from the field, and 26-of-30 from the free throw line in the win. The Aggies shot just 56.3 percent from the foul line in their win over LSU. This looks like the type of game that could be decided at the free throw line, and that should favor the Wildcats. Kentucky comes in red hot, shooting better than 50 percent from the field over it's last five games, and better than 45 percent from beyond the arc. I think the Aggies are going to struggle as they step up in class after their easy win yesterday. They've failed to cover in 10 of their last 13 coming off a win of more than 20 points. Take UK. GL, Jesse Schule. |
03-11-16 |
California v. Utah -125 | Top | 78-82 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes.
Two of the hottest teams in the Pac12 will meet in the conference tournament in Sin City tonight, when the 14-5 Utah Utes take on the 13-6 California Golden Bears. The Utes come in as winners of eight straight, while the Bears have won nine of their last 10 overall. I've been far more impressed with Utah though, as they manhandled a very good USC team last night. The Bears looked a little sloppy in a 76-68 win over Oregon State. Utah has been excellent at neutral sites, winning four of five. Who can forget the Utes 77-75 upset win over Duke at Madison Square Garden. They've been far better shooting free throws than Cal, hitting 71.1 percent overall this season, and 74.8 percent in five games at neutral sites. The Bears have shot a dismal 62.9 percent from the line while losing two of three at neutral sites. The Utes have won four of the last five in this series, and they look like the hotter team heading into tonight's contest.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
03-11-16 |
Kansas -5 v. Baylor | Top | 66-70 |
Loss | -106 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas Jayhawks. Kansas crushed BIG12 rivals Kansas State on Thursday, and they are the team to beat, ranked #1 in the country. They take on the inconsistent Baylor Bears tonight, and I think the price to back the Jayhawks is more than reasonable. Kansas comes in as winners of 12 straight, and they covered the spread in 10 of those 12 games. They swept the season series with Baylor, and they've won and covered in seven straight against the Bears since 2013. The Bears finished the season as losers of three of their last four games before beating Texas yesterday. They lost 66-60 at home to Kansas during the regular season, and they shot just 36.1 percent from the field in that game. Kansas has plenty of experience playing neutral site games this season, winning five of six. They scored an average of 80.4 points on 48.6 percent shooting in those games. Opponents have averaged just 63 points on 36.7 percent shooting in the Jayhawks last five games. Take KAN. GL, Jesse Schule |
03-09-16 |
Jazz v. Warriors OVER 207 | Top | 94-115 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UTAH@GS to go OVER the total. The Warriors are by far the highest scoring team in the NBA, averaging over 115 points per game. They've scored significantly more points at home, while remaining undefeated at 27-0. They scored 119 points in a win over Orlando in their last game, and have averaged 117.6 points in their last five at Oracle Arena. They host the Jazz tonight, and Utah has lost six of it's last seven on the road. The Jazz will be playing a quick turnaround in a back to back after a home loss to the Hawks last night, a tough spot to face Steph Curry and The Warriors. Curry dropped 41 points (seven three-pointers) in the win over Orlando. These two teams have gone over in four of the last five meetings, and the Jazz have gone over in nine of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record. The Warriors have gone over in six of their last eight when playing on one day's rest. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |