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This is a 4* play on BOS.

Both teams are well aware that no team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit, so it was not surprising to see Boston come out flat in Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavericks avoided the sweep, and now they come into Boston for Game 5 with a sense of accomplishment under their belt. That didn't serve the Minnesota Timberwolves well when they forced a Game 5 against Dallas. We all know that a Celtics series win is inevitable, and Boston should come out like gangbusters here at home in this elimination game. We are calling for a wire to wire win for Boston.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on DAL.

The Mavs have looked terrible so far in the NBA Finals, but there's nothing like home cooking. Since 2003 teams down 0-2 in a playoff series returning home off back to back losses where they scored fewer than 100 points in both games, are 34-10 SU in the first half of Game 3. According to Yahoo.com, ratings for the 2024 Finals are down 8 percent since the Celtics last Finals appearance in 2022. Many bettors suspect that with an incentive to extend a series, officials often put their thumb on the scale ever so slightly. While the Celtics swept the Pacers, they trailed 69-57 in the first half of Game 3 in Indiana. Dallas has won Game 3 at home in all three previous series in these playoffs. We are projecting the Mavs to shoot better, play harder, and get the benefit of the doubt from the officials. This should move the needle enough to allow them to get back into this series with a win in Game 3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DAL.

The narrative after Game 1 is that the Mavs can't match up against the Celtics, it's gonna be a sweep, might as well plan the parade next week. Well this is an overreaction, and I caution bettors to avoid falling victim to recency bias. The Mavs looked terrible in Game 1 versus the Clippers, and Game 1 versus Oklahoma City. They came back and won both those series in six games. The Mavs are 5-0 SU and against the spread when coming off a loss in these playoffs. The media seems to have forgotten that Boston lost Game 2 at home versus Miami, versus Cleveland, and nearly lost Game 1 versus Indiana. This looks like a good bounce back spot for the Mavs. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on DAL.

The Celtics swept the Pacers despite failing to cover in three of four games. They trailed for the better part of the series, coming from behind in Games 1,3 & 4. Their path to the Finals was an easy one, especially in comparison to Dallas. The Mavs come in battle tested, beating the 1st place team in the West (Oklahoma City) and a Minnesota team that upset the defending champs. While the Celtics had the best record in the NBA in the regular season, it's important to consider that the Eastern Conference is inferior to the West. These two teams have an identical record over their final 20 games of the regular season, and Dallas has been more impressive in the post-season. The Celtics came out flat in Game 1 against the Pacers, and they might be a bit rusty given 10 days off since Game 4 at Indiana. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The last time the Minnesota Timberwolves faced elimination at home, they beat Denver 115-70 in Game 6 of the Western Conference Semi Final. They shot 52.7 percent from the field and 45.8 percent from beyond the arc in Game 4, and only scored 105 total points. As much as I might like Minnesota's chances in this game, I think it's going to have to be their defense and not their offense that keeps them alive. The Timberwolves are only averaging 107.8 points per game in these playoffs, and Dallas is averaging just 106.9 points per game. Minnesota has held opponents to just 101.9 points per game. Expect both teams to bring it on defense in this elimination game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DAL.

The Celtics put a little pressure on Dallas, as they don't want to see this series get extended while Boston gets extra rest. The last thing we need is more mileage on Luka's nagging knee injuries. This should be a flat spot for Minnesota, as they know that elimination is inevitable. Karl Anthony Towns 0-for-8 from beyond the arc, and Anthony Edwards missed both his three-point attempts. Something appears to be wrong with Ant, and that doesn't bode well for Minnesota.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on BOS.

It's over! After dominating two of the first three games of this series, the Pacers could easily be up 2-1 heading into Game 4. Instead, they blew leads in the final seconds not once but twice, and they face elimination. Haliburton is questionable, but you can forget about him or any other Indiana players playing hurt here in tonight's game. This is a motivational mismatch. A huge let down spot for the Pacers, and the Celtics know Dallas is up 3-0 in the Western Conference Final, which makes it imperative that they don't allow this series to be extended.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Minnesota.

The Timberwolves are in a must win situation after blowing leads in the first two games of this series at home. The good news for Minnesota fans is that they won three of their last four on the road in these playoffs. They have held the lead at halftime in both the first two games of this series. They need more from Anthony Edwards, who has not looked sharp in this series so far. Despite shooting just 42 percent from the field in the series so far, both the first two gamed we decided by a single possession. Expect some positive regression for the Wolves. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

So the Celtics lost Game 2 to a Miami team without Jimmy Butler, and they lost Game 2 in the second round to a Cavaliers team without their starting center. Now they face the Pacers who might be without leading scorer Tyrese Haliburton in Game 3. Could Boston suffer a let down? Can the Pacers rally without their best player? I would like to remind everyone that Haliburton missed several games during the regular season, and the Pacers were 4-1 at home without him in the lineup. He was not healthy in the first round against Milwaukee, and in Game 3 of that series he scored just 18 points, and shot 1-of-12 from beyond the arc. Despite the poor performance from Haliburton, the Pacers won Game 3 and went on to win the series. In Game 6 of that series, the Pacers won 120-98, and Haliburton had just 17 points and shot 2-of-10 from beyond the arc. I am not gonna tell you the Pacers are coming back to win the series as they did against the Knicks, but don't be surprised if they avoid a sweep by winning Game 3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

So the Celtics lost Game 2 to a Miami team without Jimmy Butler, and they lost Game 2 in the second round to a Cavaliers team without their starting center. Now they face the Pacers who might be without leading scorer Tyrese Haliburton in Game 3. Could Boston suffer a let down? Can the Pacers rally without their best player? I would like to remind everyone that Haliburton missed several games during the regular season, and the Pacers were 4-1 at home without him in the lineup. He was not healthy in the first round against Milwaukee, and in Game 3 of that series he scored just 18 points, and shot 1-of-12 from beyond the arc. Despite the poor performance from Haliburton, the Pacers won Game 3 and went on to win the series. In Game 6 of that series, the Pacers won 120-98, and Haliburton had just 17 points and shot 2-of-10 from beyond the arc. I am not gonna tell you the Pacers are coming back to win the series as they did against the Knicks, but don't be surprised if they avoid a sweep by winning Game 3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Minnesota.

We knew that coming off a Game 7 win on the road in Denver could set Minnesota up for a let down in Game 1. Teams coming into the Conference Finals off a Game 7 are now 0-14 in Game 1 of the series. They came out strong in the first half, held the lead into the fourth quarter and collapsed late. I expect the home team to make the necessary adjustments and take care of business in this revenge spot. Luka Doncic may have benefited from a four day break between Game 6 versus the Thunder and Game 1 in Minnesota. His knees and ankle only get 48 hrs to rest between Game 1 and Game 2.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Game 1 of this series was one of the highest scoring playoff games in recent memory. If you are expecting regression, I will have to point out that Boston shot below their playoff average from the field (47.5%), and well below with three point attempts (33%). While the Pacers shot below their playoff average from beyond the arc, their field goal percentage was just a bit higher than their average. The Celtics held a 30-10 edge at the free throw line, which is expected to continue throughout the series. The bookmakers have adjusted with a slightly higher total for Game 2, but I don't think it's high enough.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

While the Eastern Conference Final looks like it's going to be all offense, we may expect the polar opposite here in the Western Conference Final. Minnesota ranked 1st in scoring defense during the regular season, and they are allowing opponents to average less than 100 points per game in the playoffs. Dallas has really cranked up their defense in the post-season, allowing opponents to average just 103 points per game. Luka was the NBA's leading scorer this season averaging 34 points per game, but he's battled injuries and has averaged just over 27 points per game in the post-season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Celtics deserve to be the favorite in this series, but I still think the Pacers deserve a bit of credit. Coming off a record 67.1 percent from the field in Game 7 at New York, it's easy to say they will suffer some regression. That said they did rank 1st in the playoffs in FG percentage heading into that game, and they lead the league in scoring during the regular season. Boston is without their starting center for at least the first few games of this series, and their backup Al Horford is 37 years old and clearly on the downside of his career. Indiana rolls with seven players averaging in double figures, and nobody needs to play more than 30 minutes per game. The Pacers played twice at Boston during the regular season, and both games went over 250 combined points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The historical trends are clear, we see low scores in NBA Game 7s. The Knicks are banged up, with only two healthy starters remaining. This game should get ugly, very ugly. Expect a slow pace, with both teams struggling offensively and battling for every possession.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I had the under in Game 5, and here is what I said before the game: "Three of the four games in this series have gone under the total, way under. The only exception was the last game in Oklahoma City. Luka scored 29 points in that game, but has averaged less than 20 in the other three. He's clearly still battling the knee injury, and PJ Washington has become the Mavs go to guy on offense. I don't necessarily expect the shooting woes of Game 4 to carry over in to Game 5, but I don't expect either team to let up on defense either. "

GL,

Jesse Schul

This is a 4* play on Under.

We have seen the Nuggets win the last three games. They have shot 54 percent, 57 percent and 55 percent from the field in those games. All three games went over the total after the first two games both went under. We can expect some regression when it comes to how well Denver has been shooting, as we haven't seen a team hit 50 percent or better through an entire playoff in any of the last 20 seasons. Indiana leads this season's playoffs with a 49 percent field goal percentage, and the 2017 Golden State Warriors have the highest percentage in the last 20 years at 49.4. Hitting 55 percent plus simply isn't sustainable. This is also an elimination game, and historically these games trend under in the neighborhood of 60 percent.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under. 

Three of the four games in this series have gone under the total, way under. The only exception was the last game in Oklahoma City. Luka scored 29 points in that game, but has averaged less than 20 in the other three. He's clearly still battling the knee injury, and PJ Washington has become the Mavs go to guy on offense. I don't necessarily expect the shooting woes of Game 4 to carry over in to Game 5, but I don't expect either team to let up on defense either. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

This series has seen the road team go 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS. That trend should come to an end here in Denver in Game 5. The Nuggets have seized all the momentum, and they have all the playoff experience. The injury concerns for Jamal Murray are seemingly in the rearview mirror, and Minneosta looks like the younger team that isn't ready to take the next step.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

The Knicks are in big trouble! Jalen Brunson has struggled since suffering a foot injury, Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle and Bogdan Bogdanovic are all out for the year. The biggest loss of all is OG Anunoby, who is an elite defender that completely changed the Knicks fortunes when he was acquired from Toronto. The Knicks are 24-5 when Anunoby plays, and 30-31 when he sits. The Pacers are healthy, and they are the highest scoring team in the NBA and they like to play fast. They roll out a lineup that features seven players that score in double figures. It's almost impossible to stop them with injured starters and no bench.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Mavs won Game 3 by a score of 105-101, falling well short of the total of 216. Luka Doncic only scored 22 points, and he remains on the injury report with not only a knee injury but an ankle issue as well. Both these teams have played well defensively in the post-season, Oklahoma City allowing just 96.7 points per game and Dallas allowing 103.3. With Luka less than 100 percent, and Oklahoma City in a must win situation, we should expect another low score in Game 4.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

The Pacers won a close game at home in Game 3 of this series, despite the fact that the Knicks shot 52 percent from beyond the arc, while the Pacers shot just 37.5 percent from three-point range. The Pacers shooting lines up exactly with their season average, while the Knicks shot well beyond their average of 36.9 percent. We can expect some regression in this area for the Knicks, and as injuries pile up it's going to be difficult for New York to compete with a Pacers team that has seven players averaging in double figures.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

It was Deja Vu all over again when the Celtics came out flat, losing Game 2 at home to the Cavs. Cleveland shot 55 percent from the field and 46 percent from beyond the arc in a 118-94 win. It was shockingly similar to the first round loss in Game 2 versus the Heat when Miami shot 54 percent from beyond the arc. The Heat went on to score just 84 points in Game 3. The last meeting in the regular season saw Cleveland win 105-104 at home. The Celtics have failed to reach the total in four of their last five road games. I expect a low score here in Cleveland in Game 3.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on IND.

The Knicks might be in big trouble here, as both Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby suffered injuries in Game 2. Brunson was able to play through the pain, while Anunoby left and did not return. It seems likely that one or both could be unavailable for Game 3. Of course Brunson gets all the headlines as he's leading the playoffs in scoring, but keep in mind that the Knicks were only considered a contender after the trade that brought in OG Anunoby from Toronto. Without him they have a record of 30-29, and with him they were 20-3 during the regular season, and 6-2 in the playoffs. He's their best defender, and it would be a huge loss if he misses any time. Already without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and Bojan Bogdanovic, the Knicks are running out of bodies to throw out there. Next man up only works when you have the depth on the bench, and right now the Knicks don't have any depth. Indiana on the other hand has seven guys averaging double digits in scoring. Tyrese Haliburton scored 34 points despite being listed as questionable for Game 2. I like the Pacers to win Game 3 wire to wire, and I really think New York is in trouble in this series moving forward. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on the Thunder.

Dallas appears to be in big trouble here in this second round series versus Oklahoma City. Luka Doncic has been bothered by a knee injury throughout the playoffs, and his points, rebounds and assists total has dropped from 53 during the regular season to 46 in the post-season. Word out of Dallas is that the knee isn't getting any better, and it is limiting his mobility. The Thunder have held opponents under 100 points in seven of their last eight games, with opponents averaging less than 92 points per game during that span.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I had the under in Game 1, and it sailed over the total of 217. I had noted that it should be a pace war between a Knicks team that ranked dead last in the NBA in pace of play, and first in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average versus the highest scoring team in the NBA. The Pacers shot over 52 percent from the field and the Knicks shot over 53 percent in Game 1. Expect some regression to the mean here, and I think the value is on the under with tonight's total six points higher than it was in the previous game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on DAL.

Rest vs Rust? A long layoff could hurt the Thunder here after they swept New Orleans. Dallas looked hot and cold against the Clippers but Luka is coming off a pair of big performances in the final two games of that series. The Mavs should own the glass, as only Washington and Charlotte were worse on the boards than OKC this year. The Thunder is the youngest #1 seed in the history of the NBA, and that's just not something I wanna bet on.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Boston.

This is a tough spot for Cleveland as a let down feels inevitable coming off a big come from behind win over Orlando in Game 7. Keep in mind they got off to a terrible start in that game, trailing by 18 points with four minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. You might say the only reason they were able to come back is because Orlando shot just 33 percent from the field. Don't count on that from Boston, they should win this game wire to wire in a rout.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on NYK.

The Pacers got lucky that they faced a Milwaukee team without Giannis and Damian Lillard for most of their first round series. Even the shorthanded Bucks held the Pacers under 100 points in wins in Game 1 and Game 5 in Milwaukee. The Bucks are a below average defensive team, while the Knicks ranked 1st in the Eastern Conference in opponents scoring average. Jalen Brunson averaged 35.5 points, 9 rebound and 4.5 assists per game in the first round, while Tyrese Haliburton averaged just 16 points per game in the first round, and has really struggled since the All Star break. With Haliburton questionable (expected to play) everything favors the Knicks in Game 1. I like New York to open up an early lead and win wire to wire.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on CLE.

The home team is 6-0 SU in this series so far, and in the history of the NBA the home team is 111-37 all time in Game 7. The home team should get the calls from the officials, and feed off the energy of the crowd. The Magic have lost seven straight on the road, and they are 1-8 in their last nine games at Cleveland.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

The Nuggets beat the Wolves in five games last year, and while this year's series may well be a hell of a lot more competitive, I gotta go with the champs. Nikola Jokic is far and away the best player in the league, and should be winner of four consecutive MVPs. Jamal Murray is Captain Clutch with a pair of game winners versus the Lakers. The Wolves are a great team, but I worry Karl Anthony Towns when it comes down to crunch time. Anthony Edwards has a bright future, but at 22 he's not yet in his prime. MJ (rumored to be his illegitimate father) didn't win a CHIP until he was 28.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LAC.

The Clippers lost at home by 30 points in Game 5, and they face elimination in Dallas in Game 6. I expect a better effort from LA, and they should improve on their 37.9 percent shooting from the field in Game 5. The Mavs shot 54 percent from the field in LA, and they should suffer some regression to the mean here at home. This line appears to be a bit inflated, and that may be due to recency bias. I'll take the Clippers in a revenge spot getting a bunch of points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. After another low score in Game 5, I think the books are overreacting here with a really low number in Game 6.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on OVER.

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. The Pacers ranked 27th in the NBA in the regular season allowing over 120 points per game. Milwaukee ranked 21st in the NBA allowing over 216 points per game.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on MIN.

The Nuggets failed to sweep the Lakers, giving Minnesota even more motivation to get the job done here in Phoenix in Game 4. Unlike the Lakers, the Suns have shown very little sign that they are capable of extending this series.

GL,

Jesse

This is a 5* play on Over.

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. The Pacers scored 67 points in the first half of Game 3, and the injury to Damian Lillard should not slow them down here in Game 4. Keep in mind that while 222 points were scored in regulation in Game 3, Siakam, Haliburton and Nesmith all struggled shooting the ball. Perhaps some positive regression here.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on DEN.

We have seen this movie before, the Lakers host Denver in an elimination game in LA in Game 4. They jump out to an early lead but Denver takes over in the 3rd quarter and steals it late. LeBron gets sent home in a four game sweep. History repeats itself in LA tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over. 

I had the over in Game 2, and here is what I said before the game: 

“Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.”

I think Game 1 was an anomaly, and we should see high scores in this series moving forward. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on ORL.

The Magic return home down 0-2, and they need to make a statement early if they want to win Game 3. Cleveland are 1-7 SU in their last eight games on the road. The Magic were one of the best home teams in the Eastern Conference during the regular season. With a record of 29-12 only Boston and Milwaukee had more home wins. The Cavs come in with nothing to prove, and a let down in this spot seems likely, particularly in the first half.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Game 1 went way under the total of 231.5, and the opening number for Game 2 was 225.5. That has been bet down even further to 220.5. I think this is an over-correction. While we know scoring is down in the playoffs, and unders have cashed at a phenomenal rate so far, let's not forget who the Pacers are. They led the league in scoring, averaging 123.3 points per game, almost three points per game more than #2 Boston. The ranked second in the league in possessions per game behind the Washington Wizards. Prior to Game 1, the Pacers last game at Milwaukee had a total of 262. Four of five regular season meetings saw totals of 250 or higher. The Pacers had scored 119 or more points in nine straight versus Milwaukee before Game 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on NYK.

Embiid scored 29 points in Game 1, but he was carried off the court in the second quarter after re-injuring his knee. If there is any swelling since Game 1, Embiid could be seriously limited in Game 2. The chances of his doing further damage to this injury would appear to be quite high. Keep in mind he scored 23 points in the Play-in game versus Miami, and he averaged just over 23 points per game in each of the last two years in the post-season. Note that the Knicks ranked #1 in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average. Maxey is also questionable with an illness, piling on the problems for the Sixers. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on IND.

The Pacers won the season series 4-1, and they come into the first round series 100 percent healthy. The Pacers won seven of their final 10 games while the Bucks lost seven of their final 10 games. Giannis is out, and Damian Lillard missed practice this week with an abductor injury. The Bucks are 4-5 without Giannis this year, and 21-22 without Giannis the last three seasons. The Bucks are 17-19 under Doc Rivers. This series has upset written all over it, in fact the Bucks opened as a favorite but the odds have shifted in favor of the Pacers.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the New York Knicks.

The Sixers just barely got past the Miami Heat in the Play-in, and that was with Jimmy Butler limited by a serious knee injury. Joel Embiid scored just 23 points, and his playoff struggles are fresh in the mind of Sixers fans. The 2023 MVP averaged 34.7 points per game this season, but he scored just 23.7 points per game in last year's playoffs, and 23.6 points per game in the 2022 post-season. Philly lost 3-of-4 in the season series, and scored just 86.5 points per game during that span. The Knicks ranked #1 in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average, allowing 108.2 points per game. New York is 20-3 this season when OG Anunoby is in the lineup. This looks like a tough matchup for Philly.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SAC.

The Pelicans lost Zion in their home loss to the Lakers, and while some will lean on the "injured player theory", I am not sure you can equate losing your best player in the middle of the regular season, to losing your best player with an elimination game on deck. The Kings were impressive in last year's playoffs, going seven games against the Warriors. They didn't take the next step this year, but they might be getting hot at the right time. The one guy that the Pelicans need to step up, is Brandon Ingraham. The former Laker scored just 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting in the loss to the Pelicans. Too much drama in New Orleans for me, I'll take the Kings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GSW.

The Warriors come into the play-in as winners of eight of their last 10 overall, while the Kings have struggled, failing to cover in seven of their last 10 overall. The Warriors are healthier, more talented, with better coaching. They have the playoff pedigree, and they won a Game 7 at Sacramento last April. Steph Curry scored 50 points in that game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

The Hawks have already penciled in a date with the Chicago Bulls in the play-in, making this game absolutely meaningless. The situation is not so simple for the Pacers, who are tied with Orlando and Philly, and they need a win to ensure they don't slip into the 7th spot and a play-in game versus the 8th seed. If the Hawks starters see the court for any significant minutes, I would be shocked. This should be a one-sided affair.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

While many teams are just going through the motions with only a couple games left in the regular season, these two teams still have plenty to play for. The Cavs are only one game up on the Magic and the Pacers, who could bump them out of the 4th seed. Despite the massive playoff implications, the total for tonight's game is higher than it has been in any of the previous 10 meetings. The Cavs are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, and they won the last meeting by a score of 108-103 at Indiana last month. While the over is 7-3 in the Cavs last 10 overall, only one of those games saw more than 233 total points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NYK.

So last week Josh Hart suggested that Julius Randle and OG Anunoby could be done for the season. Hart was half right, as a few days later it was announced that Randle would underdog season ending surgery. It was a surprise however to see Anunoby return, and that bodes well for a Knickerbockers team that is trying to secure home court in the first round of the playoffs. The Bucks, Cavs, Knicks and Magic are separated by just 1.5 games with all four teams fighting for seeds 2-5. The Knicks are 16-3 with Anunoby in the lineup, and they have far more to play here for than Chicago. The Bulls can't move up in the standings as they are six games back of the eight place Heat.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on UCONN.

The Huskies are 36-3 and all three of their losses came on the road. They have been crushing the opposition, winning 11 straight NCAA Tournament games by double digits. Purdue on the other hand has struggled at times against Tennessee and Wisconsin in the BIG10 Tourney. Zack Edey has been dominant, but he draws a tougher matchup here against another 7-foot star in Donovan Clingan. The Huskies held San Diego State to 24 points in the first half of the Natty last year. One of these teams has championship pedigree and the other has a history of choking in big games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TOR.

The Raptors are coming off a win on the road at Milwaukee on Friday, ending a 15 game losing skid. RJ Barrett and Emanuel Quickley missed most of those games, but the dynamic duo are back in action. The Raptors have an opportunity to keep the momentum going now with a home game against Washington. The Wizards are almost certainly tanking, and they should provide little resistance here north of the border.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

I had the under in the Huskies win over Illinois, and they didn't even come close to the total of 155.5. Here is what I said before tip off: "I had to rub my eyes when I saw that the total for this game opened at 155.5. I think the bookmakers came up with this number based on offensive efficiency numbers, while ignoring pace of play. Illinois may be the most efficient offense in the country, but they scored just 72 points in a low scoring battle versus Iowa State. It won't get any easier against a UCONN team that ranks 307th in pace of play averaging 68 possessions per game. UCONN hasn't seen a combined 155 points in any NCAA Tournament game in 10 years. We saw six of eight games fail to reach the total in the Sweet 16, and there is every reason to expect these teams to tighten up even more as we get closer to the Final." The Crimson Tide scored 89 points and did go over the total in their game against Clemson. That game was on pace to go under with Alabama leading 58-53 with just 8 minutes remaining, but there were 60 points scored in the final eight minutes. These teams played last Novermber, and the total for that game was 148. The Huskies won 82-67 falling well short of 161.5.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

We have seen nine of the last 12 NCAA Tournament games go under the number, and another low score might be expected in a football stadium when such venues have been known to cause problems for long range shooters. Some would say that the Wolfpack have been lucky that Texas Tech, Marquette and Duke shot poorly from beyond the arc. I think it's naive not to give credit to NC State for their defense. Purdue was just 3-of-15 from beyond the arc in the Elite Eight, but with Zack Edey scoring 40 it didn't matter. The Boilermakers won 72-66 versus Tennessee, and I expect a similar score here in the Final Four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on DAL.

The Warriors 133-110 win over Houston last night sets them up for a massive let down here in the second game of a back to back and third game in four nights. Last night's win pretty much ended any hope for Houston to catch the Warriors for the final play in spot. The Warriors beat the Mavs 104-100 at home on Tuesday, adding a revenge angle for Dallas. The Mavs still have plenty to play for, sitting just a game out of the play in and two games out of 4th in the West. Steve Kerr has been quite vocal about limiting the minutes for Steph Curry in recent weeks, this looks like a good spot for Curry to either sit out or play a limited role.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

When I heard Josh Hart's comments following the Knicks loss to the Thunder, my jaw hit the floor. I am sure I was not alone in thinking that it was like a bomb going off. "I'm looking at it like this is the team we're going to have," Hart said "I think that's how we have to approach it, that those guys aren't coming back and obviously we'll be pleasantly surprised if they come back." He suggested that OG Anunoby and Julius Randle might not be back this season. If that's true, here is why that is a problem. The Knicks are 15-2 with Anunoby in the lineup, which means they are just 29-28 without him. Add in Julius Randle and I think it's reasonable to say that they are a sub .500 team without those two guys. Now the Heat have been banged up all year, and have been able to remain competitive no matter who plays. It looks like they will have everyone not named Tyler Hero for tonight's game. The home team has won 7 STRAIGHT MEETINGS in this series. The Knicks have lost four straight at Miami.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

If the playoffs started today, the Lakers would face the Warriors in the play-in. If that is the matchup you would like to see .... "Houston, we've got a problem!" The Rockets have won 11 straight, and they are just a game back of Golden State. Houston is coming off a 101-100 win at Utah, a dominant effort defensively. They held the Mavs under 100 points the last time these teams met, and the total has gone under in seven of the last 10 meetings. The Mavs have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 overall. The stakes are high, so expect defense to be intense in Houston tonight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The overs might have hit in the first round of the tournament, but seven of the last 10 NCAA Tournament games have gone under the total. Both these teams have a checkered past in the NCAA Tournament, and past failures haunt the likes of Matt Painter and Rick Barnes. The Vols will need to slow Purdue down if they want to advance, and they have been dominant defensively in this tournament. The Vols ranked #1 in the SEC allowing just 67 points per game this season, and they have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 11.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

I had to rub my eyes when I saw that the total for this game opened at 155.5. I think the bookmakers came up with this number based on offensive efficiency numbers, while ignoring pace of play. Illinois may be the most efficient offense in the country, but they scored just 72 points in a low scoring battle versus Iowa State. It won't get any easier against a UCONN team that ranks 307th in pace of play averaging 68 possessions per game. UCONN hasn't seen a combined 155 points in any NCAA Tournament game in 10 years. We saw six of eight games fail to reach the total in the Sweet 16, and there is every reason to expect these teams to tighten up even more as we get closer to the Final.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TENN.

There aren't many teams that can shoot 3-of-25 from beyond the arc and salvage a win, but Tennessee did just that against Texas. The Vols scored 79 points per game while winning the SEC, expect them to bounce back with a better offensive performance here against Creighton. The Blue Jays also survived a close call winning in overtime after Oregon failed to win it at the free throw line in regulation. Rick Barnes past failures in the NCAA Tournament are well documented, but I wonder if that has influenced this line. The SEC champs have the horses, they have overcome some adversity, and I think it's wrong to assume past failure will haunt them forever.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

The Pacers lost 150-145 at LA last week, and the post game press conference re-ignited a controversy regarding favorable calls for the Lakers. LA had a 43-16 edge in free throw attempts. Rick Carlisle was unhappy, echoing similar comments made by Steve Kerr and Darko Rajovic earlier in the season. The Lakers have now won five in a row, and they have a 2.5 game cushion between them and 10th place Golden State. This sets them up for a let down here on the road against an Indiana team motivated by revenge as well as their own playoff positioning as they are just a game up on 7th place Miami. LeBron's comments after the win over Memphis suggest he may play limited minutes or sit out games down the stretch: “I got to be smart with it,” James said Wednesday. “If I’m not healthy, or [anywhere] close to being healthy, then it’s not good for our ball club anyway. It’s not good for me.”

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

This is a rematch of last year's Natty, and UCONN won that game by a score of 76-59. The Huskies have won nine straight, and five of their last six opponents have scored 60 points or fewer. UCONN prefers to play at a slow pace, ranking 302nd nationally averaging 68 possessions per game. San Diego State averages just 69.6 possessions per game. They have played strong defense in the tournament so far, allowing an average of 61.5 points per game. We should expect a low score here, and I think the Aztecs will be held to 60 or less.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The NBA would love to see LeBron James and Steph Curry face off in the play-in, but not everything is going according to script. Houston... we've got a problem! The Rockets have won nine straight and 11 of their last 12. They are now just a game back of the Warriors for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Rockets catch the Thunder playing the second game of a back to back, and with a playoff berth on the line we should see some lock down defense. Houston will try to avenge a 112-95 loss to the Thunder in the last meeting. These teams have failed to reach the total in eight of the last 10 meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIL.

The Lakers are coming off another controversial home win, beating Indiana by a score of 150-145. The Lakers had an edge of 43-16 in free throw attempts, which is nothing new if you have been paying attention this season. The Lakers have taken 420 more free throw attempts this season than their opponent, almost 200 more than the second-place Bucks (222) and well ahead of the third-place Celtics (218). This is the second straight season the Lakers have had, by far, the league's largest free throw disparity. We are expecting LeBron to sit out tonight's game in Milwaukee, and this looks like a let down spot for LA. The Bucks have won six straight at home, and this looks like a statement game for Giannis and company.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on BKN.

The Raptors entire starting lineup is out, and the kids got blown out in a 34 point loss to Sacramento on Wednesday. Scottie Barnes, Emanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are all out of the lineup. After losing back to back games to Oklahoma City and Washington over the weekend, they are back for their third game in four nights and first game back from a road trip to host Brooklyn. Not a good spot for a team that appears to be tanking with a G-Leage like starting lineup.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Northwestern scored just 19 points in the first half of their first round game against FAU, and it was a late collapse by the Owls that saw them advance. Northwestern ranks 334th in pace of play averaging 67 possessions per game. They rank 4th in the BIG10 in opponent's scoring average allowing 69 points per game. They are missing their best shooter Ty Berry, who hasn't played since early February. The Huskies should completely shut them down, but given the pace of play I expect an overall low score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

The Cavs come into Miami without Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobely and Dean Wade. They are 4-8 in their last 12 games without Mitchell, but add in three more key players and it's tough to expect them to compete. Miami has had it's own injury woes, but Jimmy Butler is back, and the Heat have won three of their last four versus Cleveland. I like Miami to win and cover here against the shorthanded Cavs.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MARQ.

Colorado needed 102 points and 63 percent shooting from the field to get past Florida in the first round, and I don't like their chances of doing that here against Marquette. The Golden Eagles were 5th in the BIG EAST allowing 69.7 points per game, but they finished second behind only the defending champion UCONN Huskies in the conference standings. Star guard Tyler Kolek missed the last few games of the regular season, but he scored 18 points and had 11 assists in the win over Western Kentucky in the first round. While both teams have 26 wins, the Golden Eagles played a far better schedule, and their NET ranking is 11 spots higher (14) than Colorado (25).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Duquesne Dukes have been dominant defensively, which is what got them here to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Dukes rank 281st nationally averaging just 68.5 possessions per game, but they have only averaged 65.8 possessions in their last three games. Their only hope here is to slow down an Illinois team that averages over 72 possessions per game. The under is 8-1 in the Dukes last nine overall, and that is a trend I expect to continue here against Illinois.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

This total looks far too high when you consider who is going to start for both teams. The Raptors have lost nine straight, scoring an average of 104.7 points in those games. Their entire starting lineup has been out for the last two games, and it should be all backups again in the second game of a back to back. The Wizards have lost six of seven, scoring an average of 106.8 points during that span. They are coming off a 109-102 home win over the Kings on Thursday, and this is a great opportunity to earn another rare home win. Toronto has gone under in seven of their last 10, and the under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on UNC.

Both the BIG10 and the ACC appeared to have an off year, but the Tar Heels finished with the best record in their conference and led the ACC in scoring. The Spartans struggled all season, losing early to JMU and then coming into the Tourney as losers of five of seven. Many pundits asked how this Spartans team even qualified for the Tournament. As impressive as their win over the Bulldogs was on Thursday, it was part of an overall theme of SEC teams getting rolled in the first round. The Spartans shot 50 percent from the field and 43.5 percent from beyond the arc, yet only scored 69 points. Playing the Tar Heels in Charlotte is going to be a far bigger challenge.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So it raised a lot of eyebrows when the under went 33-11 in the first round of last year's tournament, but I for one didn't find it all that surprising. Dating back to 2018 the under had gone 177-130 (58%) heading into the second round of last year's tournament. These are do or die elimination games, no easy buckets. Teams that are capable of tightening up their defense are sure to do so. I think it's a solid strategy to load up your card with unders in the first round, theoretically picking from a pool that already hits 58 percent. The Gaels rank 1st in the WCC in opponent's scoring average, allowing just 58.7 points per game. Grand Canyon ranks 2nd in the WAC allowing 66.9 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Under.

Prior to the All Star break one might think these two teams would be sure to get into a shootout, but times have changed. The Warriors are battling for a play-in spot, while the Pacers are only a half game out of a play-in spot. Indiana has seemingly learned how to play defense, as eight of their last 10 have gone under the total. The under is 5-5 in the Warriors last 10 overall, but none of those games saw a total as high as tonight's game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on OKC.

The Thunder are tied for the best record in the West, and they will be a big favorite in Toronto tonight. The Raptors entire starting lineup is out, and the kids got blown out in a 34 point loss to Sacramento on Wednesday. Scottie Barnes, Emanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are all out of the lineup. The Thunder have a pair of Canadians (SGA and Dort) who might be motivated to turn in a good performance in their home country. Expect another blowout loss for an undermanned Raptors team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So it raised a lot of eyebrows when the under went 33-11 in the first round of last year's tournament, but I for one didn't find it all that surprising. Dating back to 2018 the under had gone 177-130 (58%) heading into the second round of last year's tournament. These are do or die elimination games, no easy buckets. Teams that are capable of tightening up their defense are sure to do so. I think it's a solid strategy to load up your card with unders in the first round, theoretically picking from a pool that already hits 58 percent. Duke ranks 3rd in the ACC in opponents scoring average allowing 67.4 points per game. Vermont ranks 338th in pace of play averaging 66.8 possessions per game. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So it raised a lot of eyebrows when the under went 33-11 in the first round of last year's tournament, but I for one didn't find it all that surprising. Dating back to 2018 the under had gone 177-130 (58%) heading into the second round of last year's tournament. These are do or die elimination games, no easy buckets. Teams that are capable of tightening up their defense are sure to do so. I think it's a solid strategy to load up your card with unders in the first round, theoretically picking from a pool that already hits 58 percent. Northwestern ranks 334th in pace of play averaging 67 possessions per game. They rank 4th in the BIG10 in opponent's scoring average allowing 69 points per game. The Owls won their first round matchup by a score of 66-65 versus Memphis last year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on FAU.

Northwestern ranks 334th in pace of play averaging 67 possessions per game. They rank 4th in the BIG10 in opponent's scoring average allowing 69 points per game. The Owls won their first round matchup by a score of 66-65 versus Memphis last year. The Owls are not getting much hype for a team that went all the way to the Final Four a year ago, despite returning all their starters from that squad. They won 25 games this season, and I don't see anything stopping them from another impressive showing in the tournament. Northwestern has a few key injuries, with Ty Berry and Matt Nicholson out of the lineup. They come limping into the tournament as losers of three of their last four.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TTU.

Congratulations to NC State for doing the impossible and winning five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament and sneak into the NCAA Tourney. When is that last time we saw such a thing? How about two years ago when Virginia Tech did the same thing, only to be knocked out in the first round by a BIG12 team? Yeah it was a down year in the ACC, and the Wolpack had a losing record in conference play. Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the best conference in the country. They are the best in the BIG12 from the free throw line, and right up there in three-point shooting. This is a mismatch and Cinderella is gonna turn into a pumpkin as the clock strikes midnight.... Good Night!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So it raised a lot of eyebrows when the under went 33-11 in the first round of last year's tournament, but I for one didn't find it all that surprising. Dating back to 2018 the under had gone 177-130 (58%) heading into the second round of last year's tournament. These are do or die elimination games, no easy buckets. Teams that are capable of tightening up their defense are sure to do so. I think it's a solid strategy to load up your card with unders in the first round, theoretically picking from a pool that already hits 58 percent. The Cyclones won the BIG12 Tournament with a 69-41 win over Houston. They ranked #2 in the BIG12 allowing just 61.3 points per game. South Dakota ranks 316th nationally averaging just 67.7 possessions per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So it raised a lot of eyebrows when the under went 33-11 in the first round of last year's tournament, but I for one didn't find it all that surprising. Dating back to 2018 the under had gone 177-130 (58%) heading into the second round of last year's tournament. These are do or die elimination games, no easy buckets. Teams that are capable of tightening up their defense are sure to do so. I think it's a solid strategy to load up your card with unders in the first round, theoretically picking from a pool that already hits 58 percent. The Dayton Flyers rank 347th nationally in pace of play, averaging 66.3 possessions per game. The Wolfpack are not much faster, ranking 274th averaging 68.7 possessions per game. Nevada ranks #2 in the Mountain West in opponent's scoring average allowing 67.1 points per game, while Dayton allowed just 66.3 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So it raised a lot of eyebrows when the under went 33-11 in the first round of last year's tournament, but I for one didn't find it all that surprising. Dating back to 2018 the under had gone 177-130 (58%) heading into the second round of last year's tournament. These are do or die elimination games, no easy buckets. Teams that are capable of tightening up their defense are sure to do so. I think it's a solid strategy to load up your card with unders in the first round, theoretically picking from a pool that already hits 58 percent. The Gamecocks were #1 in the SEC in opponents scoring average, allowing just 67 points per game. That's all the more impressive when you consider they played the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn. The Ducks won the PAC12 Tournament, and they have held four consecutive opponents under 70 points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SOCAR.

The Gamecocks were #1 in the SEC in opponents scoring average, allowing just 67 points per game. That's all the more impressive when you consider they played the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama and Auburn. The Ducks won the PAC12 Tournament, and they have held four consecutive opponents under 70 points. While it's an impressive run for the Ducks, I think they might have peaked a little early. The Gamecocks don't get much respect from bookmakers, and even less respect from bettors. This is despite the fact that they are a highly profitable 23-10 ATS this season. Dana Altman has an impressive record at the NCAA Tournament as head coach of the Ducks, but I am not sure he has the horses this year.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Neither of the first two play-in games saw a combined 140 points, and low scores have long been the trend in these elimination games in the NCAA Tournament. The under was 33-11 in the first round of last year's tournament. We see teams play at a slower pace in these tournament games, and Boise comes in ranking 285th in pace of play averaging just 68.5 possessions per game. Colorado plays a bit faster, averaging 71.4 possessions per game, but they have averaged just 65.5 possessions in their last three games. This total is higher than it was in four of the Broncos last five games. i wouldn't be surprised if neither of these teams hit 70 points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Howard.

The Wagner Seahawks are not supposed to be here. They rattled off three straight wins in NEC Tournament, despite finishing 6th in the conference with a losing record of 7-9. They come into this play-in game with a handful of injuries, and appear to be due for a let down. Howard was only the 3rd best team in the MAEC this season, but they finished with a 9-5 conference record and ran the table in the conference tournament. They have a 26 year old Super Senior guard in Seth Towns, while Wagner has only one senior starter and he's sidelined with a wrist injury.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DEN.

The Nuggets have won 11 of 12, and yet they are still sitting second in the Northwestern. They have won both previous meetings versus Dallas, and they won their last visit to Dallas by a score of 98-97. Luka Doncic sat out Thursday's game against Oklahoma City with a hamstring injury, and he's listed as questionable for tonight's game. With or without Luka, the Nuggets should be the better team here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Last year's SEC Final ended with Purdue defeating Penn State by a score of 67-65. Yesterday's game between Wisconsin and Purdue nearly ended with a similar score, but the Badgers forced overtime with a buzzer beater that tied the score at 66-66. We saw the BIG12, PAC12,BIG10, BIG EAST, ACC & A-10 tournament finals all saw scores below 140 last year. We saw 33 of the first 44 games in last year's NCAA Tournament fail to reach the total. The fact is that defensive intensity is increased in elimination games. Illinois was knocked out of the first round of last year's tournament in a 73-63 loss to Arkansas.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on SAC.

The Knicks welcomed back OG Anunoby back to the lineup, and they rattled off back to back wins over Portland and Philly. This gives them a 14-2 record with Anunoby in the lineup, and they have held opponents to 98.6 points per game during that span. To put that in perspective, that's eight points fewer than the #1 ranked Minnesota Timberwolves have allowed this season. The thing is that the Knicks just placed Anunoby on the injury report, and his status for tonight is questionable. This has me ready to fade New York, because without Anunoby at full speed, and Julius Randle still out, this isn't likely to be a competitive matchup.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Lakers host the Warriors tonight, it what should look a lot like a playoff game. These two teams sit in the 9th and 10th spot in the Western Conference, battling for a play-in spot. Steph Curry is expected to return for an ankle injury, but it remains to be seen if he will be limited in any capacity. When you think of Lakers versus Warriors you might expect a history of high scoring games. Only once in the last 10 head to head meetings have they combined to score enough points to reach tonight's total, and that was a controversial double overtime win for the Lakers in January this year. This number looks a little inflated given the high stakes here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on USF.

South Florida can't be that good! I am sure people been saying that all year, and if you been stepping in front of them they been costing you a ton of money. The Bulls are no bull! The real deal, they didn't win 16 games in the American by accident. The Bulls crushed ECU by 22 yesterday, and their next victim is a UAB team that has been hot and cold. UAB won some big games this season, but down the stretch they folded like a cheap suit. After a three game stretch where they beat FAU and North Texas, they went on a 1-3 run that included home losses to Rice and Wichita State. This game is South Florida's to win, and anything other than a double digit win here will qualify as a choke job IMO.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on UNM.

The Lobos split the season series versus Colorado State, and both teams have a record of 24-9. They were both 10-8 in the Mountain West, and they are both on the bubble. The Rams have failed to cover in five of their last six, while New Mexico has covered in four of five. The Lobos lead the Mountain West in scoring, averaging 82.1 points per game. Senior Guard Jalen House comes in feeling the hot hand after dropping 29 on Boise State last night. The Lobos come in off back to back double digit wins, and momentum appears to be on their side. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on ORL.

Some things are bigger than basketball, and a recent tragedy has hit the Raptors organization. RJ Barrett is going to be out for a while, and the rest of the team is likely to be affected as well. The Magic meanwhile are sitting in first place in the SouthEast, and they need to stand on business here north of the border. Orlando has won seven of their last 10, and three of those wins came on the road. They won by double digits at Washington and at Charlotte. The Raptors probably gonna mail it in tonight ... and who could blame them.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Whisky.

The Badgers took care of business in their win over Maryland Thursday, advancing to take on a wounded Northwestern team in the BIG10 Quarter Finals on Friday. The Wildcats will be without two starters, Ty Berry and Matt Nicholson. Berry is the teams best shooter and Nicholson leads the team in blocks. The Badgers have owned this series, winning eight of the last 10 meetings and covering in all eight wins. Wisconsin ranks 22nd in NET ranking, compared to Northwestern 50th. It's asking a lot of Northwestern to compete with a top tier team in the BIG1O without two of their top players.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Nevada.

The Wolfpack have won 10 of their last 11, and finished second in the Mountain West with a record of 13-5. They host the Colorado State Rams in the Conference Tournament tonight, and the Rams lost three of their final six games. All three wins came against teams with a losing record. Nevada ranks #2 in the conference in opponent's scoring average allowing just 66.5 points per game, and they were the only team in the conference averaging in single digits in turnovers. I'll ride the hot team in a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CIN. 

The Jayhawks come into the Conference Tournament without their top two scorers (Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar). This looks like a clear case of Bill Self waiving the white flag, as they look forward to the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati will relish an opportunity to take down a blue blood, as the Bearcats need as many wins as they can get. Cinci only lost by five at Kansas during the regular season, and Dickinson and McCullar scored a combined 30 points in that game. Kansas has been average at best away from Lawrence all season, even when at full strength. They lost at UCF and at West Viriginia, and they might not have much fight in them here in a neutral site game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

This total opened at 236.5, and has been bet up several points. Of course this is a matchup between the Pacers #1 scoring offense and the Thunder's #3 scoring offense. But things have changed since the All Star break, and defense is no longer an after thought. The Pacers have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 overall, and these teams have only gone over once in the last four head to head meetings, and that game would have fallen short in regulation, but it went to overtime. Oklahoma City has gone under in four of their last five overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on UCF.

At a quick glance it looks like a matchup between two of the bottom feeders in the BIG12 might be fairly even. I really don't think that is the case at all. While both teams score an average of 71.3 points per game, Central Florida is one of the best defensive teams in the conference allowing just 67 points per game. The Cowboys rank 13th in the BIG12 allowing 72.6 points per game. Oklahoma State has a NET ranking of 120th while Central Florida ranks 61st. Oklahoma State ranks last in the BIG12 in rebounds per game, and the Knights dominated the boards (40-27) in a win at Stillwater during the season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on PHX.

The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries, and they got blown out at home versus the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Dean Wade and Evan Mobely all missed Sunday's game. There is no indication that any of them are back tonight, and additionally Darius Garland suffered a wrist injury against the Nets, and we are awaiting updates. The Suns on the other hand are expected to get Devin Booker back tonight. Get in quick as the betting should be rather one sided on Phoenix.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIN.

Since the injury to Karl Anthony Towns, the Wolves have not missed a beat. They are 3-1 without KAT this season, and the one loss came in OT at Cleveland in the second game of a back to back. The Lakers are coming off a win over the Bucks, with LeBron out. DeAngelo Russell scored a career high 44 points, shooting 17-of-25 from the field and making nine three-pointers. Expect some regression from him against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Both LeBron and AD carry a questionable tag heading into Sunday, which is normally of little concern. LeBron didn't play against the Bucks on Friday though, so he might be dealing with a more serious ailment. The Lakers are 3-7 straight up and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 versus Minnesota, losing both previous meetings this season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Boston University will host Lehigh in the semifinals of the Patriot Conference tournament, and these teams just played just a couple weeks ago. The Terriers won that game 64-62 in overtime, and neither team has scored 70 in three of the last four head to head meetings between these teams. The Terriers rank 320th nationally, averaging 67.6 possessions per game. They also rank 3rd in the Patriot allowing 66.1 points per game. Lehigh hasn't seen a combined 140 points in any of their last four games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Scoring normally takes a nose dive after the All Star break, and defense usually intensifies as the playoffs approach. That was on full display last night, when six of eight games failed to combine for 226 points, and five teams failed to score 100 points. These two teams are the exception to the rule though, as Toronto has an exciting group of young players that are pushing the pace and having fun, without the pressure of playoff expectations. The Blazers are giving backups and third string players a chance to earn jobs, and they have been competitive despite being hit hard by injuries. The Blazers have gone over in seven of their last 10, and Toronto has allowed and average of 124 points over their last five games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on NMSU.

These are two of the bottom feeders in the Conference USA, and between the two of them they have lost 24 of 26 road games. The Aggies have been solid at home though, with a record of 11-3. This is a the final home game for the Aggies, a revenge game against Florida International who beat them 77-67 earlier this year. The Panthers are 1-11 on the road, and that win came in non conference pay in November against the Houston Christian Huskies (the minnows of the Southland).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Aztecs are coming off a 62-58 loss at UNLV, and they host Boise State in their final home game Friday. The Aztecs rank 1st in the Mountain West in opponent's scoring average, allowing just 65.8 points per game. Boise State isn't far behind, allowing 66.9 points per game. These two teams have failed to reach the total in seven straight head to head meetings. Neither team has scored 70 in six of the last seven meetings. Another low score should be expected here.

GL,

Jesse Schule