Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-17-24 | Mavs v. Celtics -6.5 | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BOS. Both teams are well aware that no team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit, so it was not surprising to see Boston come out flat in Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavericks avoided the sweep, and now they come into Boston for Game 5 with a sense of accomplishment under their belt. That didn't serve the Minnesota Timberwolves well when they forced a Game 5 against Dallas. We all know that a Celtics series win is inevitable, and Boston should come out like gangbusters here at home in this elimination game. We are calling for a wire to wire win for Boston. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
06-09-24 | Mavs +7.5 v. Celtics | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DAL. The narrative after Game 1 is that the Mavs can't match up against the Celtics, it's gonna be a sweep, might as well plan the parade next week. Well this is an overreaction, and I caution bettors to avoid falling victim to recency bias. The Mavs looked terrible in Game 1 versus the Clippers, and Game 1 versus Oklahoma City. They came back and won both those series in six games. The Mavs are 5-0 SU and against the spread when coming off a loss in these playoffs. The media seems to have forgotten that Boston lost Game 2 at home versus Miami, versus Cleveland, and nearly lost Game 1 versus Indiana. This looks like a good bounce back spot for the Mavs. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
06-06-24 | Mavs +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 89-107 | Loss | -110 | 157 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DAL. The Celtics swept the Pacers despite failing to cover in three of four games. They trailed for the better part of the series, coming from behind in Games 1,3 & 4. Their path to the Finals was an easy one, especially in comparison to Dallas. The Mavs come in battle tested, beating the 1st place team in the West (Oklahoma City) and a Minnesota team that upset the defending champs. While the Celtics had the best record in the NBA in the regular season, it's important to consider that the Eastern Conference is inferior to the West. These two teams have an identical record over their final 20 games of the regular season, and Dallas has been more impressive in the post-season. The Celtics came out flat in Game 1 against the Pacers, and they might be a bit rusty given 10 days off since Game 4 at Indiana. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-27-24 | Celtics -7.5 v. Pacers | 105-102 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on BOS. It's over! After dominating two of the first three games of this series, the Pacers could easily be up 2-1 heading into Game 4. Instead, they blew leads in the final seconds not once but twice, and they face elimination. Haliburton is questionable, but you can forget about him or any other Indiana players playing hurt here in tonight's game. This is a motivational mismatch. A huge let down spot for the Pacers, and the Celtics know Dallas is up 3-0 in the Western Conference Final, which makes it imperative that they don't allow this series to be extended. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-26-24 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | 107-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Minnesota. The Timberwolves are in a must win situation after blowing leads in the first two games of this series at home. The good news for Minnesota fans is that they won three of their last four on the road in these playoffs. They have held the lead at halftime in both the first two games of this series. They need more from Anthony Edwards, who has not looked sharp in this series so far. Despite shooting just 42 percent from the field in the series so far, both the first two gamed we decided by a single possession. Expect some positive regression for the Wolves. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-25-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +7 | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. So the Celtics lost Game 2 to a Miami team without Jimmy Butler, and they lost Game 2 in the second round to a Cavaliers team without their starting center. Now they face the Pacers who might be without leading scorer Tyrese Haliburton in Game 3. Could Boston suffer a let down? Can the Pacers rally without their best player? I would like to remind everyone that Haliburton missed several games during the regular season, and the Pacers were 4-1 at home without him in the lineup. He was not healthy in the first round against Milwaukee, and in Game 3 of that series he scored just 18 points, and shot 1-of-12 from beyond the arc. Despite the poor performance from Haliburton, the Pacers won Game 3 and went on to win the series. In Game 6 of that series, the Pacers won 120-98, and Haliburton had just 17 points and shot 2-of-10 from beyond the arc. I am not gonna tell you the Pacers are coming back to win the series as they did against the Knicks, but don't be surprised if they avoid a sweep by winning Game 3. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-14-24 | Pacers +2.5 v. Knicks | 91-121 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. The Knicks are in big trouble! Jalen Brunson has struggled since suffering a foot injury, Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle and Bogdan Bogdanovic are all out for the year. The biggest loss of all is OG Anunoby, who is an elite defender that completely changed the Knicks fortunes when he was acquired from Toronto. The Knicks are 24-5 when Anunoby plays, and 30-31 when he sits. The Pacers are healthy, and they are the highest scoring team in the NBA and they like to play fast. They roll out a lineup that features seven players that score in double figures. It's almost impossible to stop them with injured starters and no bench. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-12-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -5.5 | 89-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. The Pacers won a close game at home in Game 3 of this series, despite the fact that the Knicks shot 52 percent from beyond the arc, while the Pacers shot just 37.5 percent from three-point range. The Pacers shooting lines up exactly with their season average, while the Knicks shot well beyond their average of 36.9 percent. We can expect some regression in this area for the Knicks, and as injuries pile up it's going to be difficult for New York to compete with a Pacers team that has seven players averaging in double figures. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-10-24 | Knicks v. Pacers -6 | Top | 106-111 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on IND. The Knicks might be in big trouble here, as both Jalen Brunson and OG Anunoby suffered injuries in Game 2. Brunson was able to play through the pain, while Anunoby left and did not return. It seems likely that one or both could be unavailable for Game 3. Of course Brunson gets all the headlines as he's leading the playoffs in scoring, but keep in mind that the Knicks were only considered a contender after the trade that brought in OG Anunoby from Toronto. Without him they have a record of 30-29, and with him they were 20-3 during the regular season, and 6-2 in the playoffs. He's their best defender, and it would be a huge loss if he misses any time. Already without Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and Bojan Bogdanovic, the Knicks are running out of bodies to throw out there. Next man up only works when you have the depth on the bench, and right now the Knicks don't have any depth. Indiana on the other hand has seven guys averaging double digits in scoring. Tyrese Haliburton scored 34 points despite being listed as questionable for Game 2. I like the Pacers to win Game 3 wire to wire, and I really think New York is in trouble in this series moving forward. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-07-24 | Mavs +3.5 v. Thunder | 95-117 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on DAL. | |||||||
05-07-24 | Cavs v. Celtics -11.5 | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Boston. This is a tough spot for Cleveland as a let down feels inevitable coming off a big come from behind win over Orlando in Game 7. Keep in mind they got off to a terrible start in that game, trailing by 18 points with four minutes to play in the 2nd quarter. You might say the only reason they were able to come back is because Orlando shot just 33 percent from the field. Don't count on that from Boston, they should win this game wire to wire in a rout. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-06-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -5.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYK. The Pacers got lucky that they faced a Milwaukee team without Giannis and Damian Lillard for most of their first round series. Even the shorthanded Bucks held the Pacers under 100 points in wins in Game 1 and Game 5 in Milwaukee. The Bucks are a below average defensive team, while the Knicks ranked 1st in the Eastern Conference in opponents scoring average. Jalen Brunson averaged 35.5 points, 9 rebound and 4.5 assists per game in the first round, while Tyrese Haliburton averaged just 16 points per game in the first round, and has really struggled since the All Star break. With Haliburton questionable (expected to play) everything favors the Knicks in Game 1. I like New York to open up an early lead and win wire to wire. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-03-24 | Clippers +8 v. Mavs | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on LAC. The Clippers lost at home by 30 points in Game 5, and they face elimination in Dallas in Game 6. I expect a better effort from LA, and they should improve on their 37.9 percent shooting from the field in Game 5. The Mavs shot 54 percent from the field in LA, and they should suffer some regression to the mean here at home. This line appears to be a bit inflated, and that may be due to recency bias. I'll take the Clippers in a revenge spot getting a bunch of points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
04-22-24 | 76ers v. Knicks -5.5 | 101-104 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on NYK. Embiid scored 29 points in Game 1, but he was carried off the court in the second quarter after re-injuring his knee. If there is any swelling since Game 1, Embiid could be seriously limited in Game 2. The chances of his doing further damage to this injury would appear to be quite high. Keep in mind he scored 23 points in the Play-in game versus Miami, and he averaged just over 23 points per game in each of the last two years in the post-season. Note that the Knicks ranked #1 in the Eastern Conference in opponent's scoring average. Maxey is also questionable with an illness, piling on the problems for the Sixers. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
04-14-24 | Hawks v. Pacers -14 | 115-157 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. The Hawks have already penciled in a date with the Chicago Bulls in the play-in, making this game absolutely meaningless. The situation is not so simple for the Pacers, who are tied with Orlando and Philly, and they need a win to ensure they don't slip into the 7th spot and a play-in game versus the 8th seed. If the Hawks starters see the court for any significant minutes, I would be shocked. This should be a one-sided affair. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut -6.5 | 60-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on UCONN. The Huskies are 36-3 and all three of their losses came on the road. They have been crushing the opposition, winning 11 straight NCAA Tournament games by double digits. Purdue on the other hand has struggled at times against Tennessee and Wisconsin in the BIG10 Tourney. Zack Edey has been dominant, but he draws a tougher matchup here against another 7-foot star in Donovan Clingan. The Huskies held San Diego State to 24 points in the first half of the Natty last year. One of these teams has championship pedigree and the other has a history of choking in big games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
04-05-24 | Warriors v. Mavs -5 | 106-108 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on DAL. The Warriors 133-110 win over Houston last night sets them up for a massive let down here in the second game of a back to back and third game in four nights. Last night's win pretty much ended any hope for Houston to catch the Warriors for the final play in spot. The Warriors beat the Mavs 104-100 at home on Tuesday, adding a revenge angle for Dallas. The Mavs still have plenty to play for, sitting just a game out of the play in and two games out of 4th in the West. Steve Kerr has been quite vocal about limiting the minutes for Steph Curry in recent weeks, this looks like a good spot for Curry to either sit out or play a limited role. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-26-24 | Lakers v. Bucks -8.5 | 128-124 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIL. The Lakers are coming off another controversial home win, beating Indiana by a score of 150-145. The Lakers had an edge of 43-16 in free throw attempts, which is nothing new if you have been paying attention this season. The Lakers have taken 420 more free throw attempts this season than their opponent, almost 200 more than the second-place Bucks (222) and well ahead of the third-place Celtics (218). This is the second straight season the Lakers have had, by far, the league's largest free throw disparity. We are expecting LeBron to sit out tonight's game in Milwaukee, and this looks like a let down spot for LA. The Bucks have won six straight at home, and this looks like a statement game for Giannis and company. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-25-24 | Nets -6.5 v. Raptors | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on BKN. | |||||||
03-24-24 | Cavs v. Heat -4.5 | 84-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Cavs come into Miami without Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Evan Mobely and Dean Wade. They are 4-8 in their last 12 games without Mitchell, but add in three more key players and it's tough to expect them to compete. Miami has had it's own injury woes, but Jimmy Butler is back, and the Heat have won three of their last four versus Cleveland. I like Miami to win and cover here against the shorthanded Cavs. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-22-24 | Thunder -15 v. Raptors | 123-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on OKC. The Thunder are tied for the best record in the West, and they will be a big favorite in Toronto tonight. The Raptors entire starting lineup is out, and the kids got blown out in a 34 point loss to Sacramento on Wednesday. Scottie Barnes, Emanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett are all out of the lineup. The Thunder have a pair of Canadians (SGA and Dort) who might be motivated to turn in a good performance in their home country. Expect another blowout loss for an undermanned Raptors team. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-21-24 | NC State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | 80-67 | Loss | -120 | 38 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TTU. Congratulations to NC State for doing the impossible and winning five games in five days to win the ACC Tournament and sneak into the NCAA Tourney. When is that last time we saw such a thing? How about two years ago when Virginia Tech did the same thing, only to be knocked out in the first round by a BIG12 team? Yeah it was a down year in the ACC, and the Wolpack had a losing record in conference play. Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the best conference in the country. They are the best in the BIG12 from the free throw line, and right up there in three-point shooting. This is a mismatch and Cinderella is gonna turn into a pumpkin as the clock strikes midnight.... Good Night! GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-15-24 | Magic -7 v. Raptors | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ORL. Some things are bigger than basketball, and a recent tragedy has hit the Raptors organization. RJ Barrett is going to be out for a while, and the rest of the team is likely to be affected as well. The Magic meanwhile are sitting in first place in the SouthEast, and they need to stand on business here north of the border. Orlando has won seven of their last 10, and three of those wins came on the road. They won by double digits at Washington and at Charlotte. The Raptors probably gonna mail it in tonight ... and who could blame them. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-11-24 | Suns -5.5 v. Cavs | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PHX. The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries, and they got blown out at home versus the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. Donovan Mitchell, Max Strus, Dean Wade and Evan Mobely all missed Sunday's game. There is no indication that any of them are back tonight, and additionally Darius Garland suffered a wrist injury against the Nets, and we are awaiting updates. The Suns on the other hand are expected to get Devin Booker back tonight. Get in quick as the betting should be rather one sided on Phoenix. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-10-24 | Wolves +1.5 v. Lakers | 109-120 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIN. Since the injury to Karl Anthony Towns, the Wolves have not missed a beat. They are 3-1 without KAT this season, and the one loss came in OT at Cleveland in the second game of a back to back. The Lakers are coming off a win over the Bucks, with LeBron out. DeAngelo Russell scored a career high 44 points, shooting 17-of-25 from the field and making nine three-pointers. Expect some regression from him against one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Both LeBron and AD carry a questionable tag heading into Sunday, which is normally of little concern. LeBron didn't play against the Bucks on Friday though, so he might be dealing with a more serious ailment. The Lakers are 3-7 straight up and 3-7 ATS in the last 10 versus Minnesota, losing both previous meetings this season. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-05-24 | Nevada v. Boise State -5.5 | 76-66 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Boise. The Broncos are tied with Utah State for the best record in the Mountain West, and they play their final home game tonight against Nevada. The Wolfpack have won five straight including road wins at Colorado State and UNLV. Their starting PG Kenan Blackshear has missed the last two games with an ankle injury, and he is questionable for tonight's game. The Broncos are 5-1 straight up in the last six head to head meetings and they are 3-0 at home during that span. Both these teams are allowing 66.6 points per game, ranking 2nd in the Mountain West in opponent's scoring. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-05-24 | Liberty v. Middle Tennessee +5.5 | 61-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on MTSU. The Blue Raiders have won five straight home games, and yet they are an underdog against a Liberty team that is just 2-7 on the road. The Flames have been favored in each of their last five road games, and they lost all five of those. Final home game for Middle Tennessee, getting points... sign me up. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-03-24 | Hornets v. Raptors -8 | 106-111 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 32 m | Show | |
The Raptors will be without Scotty Barnes for a while, but they catch the Hornets at home in their first game since the injury. I expect the likes of Barrett and Quickley to pick up the slack against an inferior opponent. Barrett has only faced Charlotte once as a Raptor, scoring 23 on 9-of-15 shooting in a 123-117 win at Charlotte. The Raptors are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 versus Charlotte. The Raptors won and covered as a -12.5 favorite at home versus Charlotte in December. Barrett has gone over his points total in four of his last five games. Without Barnes in the lineup Toronto will really lean on RJ to carry the load. I like the Raptors to face little resistance here tonight, winning in a blowout. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
03-02-24 | Marquette v. Creighton -4.5 | 75-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays are 13-2 at home, and that includes a blowout win over then #1 ranked UCONN. They were catching the Huskies in a tough spot, and they catch Marquette in a similar spot here today. The Blues Jays only home losses came in OT to Villanova, and by one point versus Butler. They were leading at halftime in both those games. Marquette is coming off a big win over Providence, and they are in a sandwich spot here with UCONN on deck. That home game against UCONN is a revenge spot, as well as the Golden Eagles final home game. Then you have starting PG Tyler Kolek likely to miss this game with an oblique injury, and we can expect a let down here at Creighton. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-28-24 | South Carolina +4 v. Texas A&M | Top | 70-68 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SOCAR. The Gamecocks are just one game out of first place in the SEC, and they are an underdog on the road at Texas A&M. The Aggies have lost four straight, and that includes a home loss to Arkansas. This is a revenge game for the Gamecocks, after losing at home to Texas A&M in January. South Carolina had won eight of the previous nine meetings between the two teams. These two teams are trending in opposite directions, and I'll take the points with the better team. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-27-24 | Nets v. Magic -8 | 81-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Orlando. This looks like a let down spot for the Nets, who are playing the second game of a back to back on the road at Orlando. They got Kevin Ollie his first win as head coach last night at Memphis. They had lost four straight prior to that, and they are are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games on the road. This looks like a good spot for Orlando, and they have covered in five of their last six as a favorite. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-26-24 | Raptors +6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOR. The Pacers won in Toronto by a score of 127-125 before the All Star break, but they didn't cover as a two-point favorite. The underdog has covered in each of the last four meetings between these teams, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. This is a tough spot for Indiana, playing the second game of a back to back coming off a blowout win over the Mavericks. The Pacers are just 2-8 in back to backs this season, and the two games they won were both decided by just two points. One of those losses came at home by a score of 132-131 to Toronto, and the Pacers have allowed opponents to average 126 points in those 10 games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -7.5 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIN. The Timberwolves ran into a desperate Milwaukee team in their first game out of the All Star break, and despite rallying late they lost 112-107. They host the Brooklyn Nets in the second game of a back to back, and the Nets looked pretty awful in a 121-93 loss at Toronto. If that's any indication of how the team is responding to the interim head coach, Brooklyn could struggle down the stretch. Brooklyn are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against Minnesota, and they are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games on the road. I expect the Wolves to bounce back with a double digit home win. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-21-24 | Georgia v. Vanderbilt +1.5 | 76-64 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Vandy. The Bulldogs bring a six game losing streak into tonight's game at Vanderbilt, and they have struggled against the Commodores in recent seasons. Vanderbilt has won four in a row versus Georgia, covering the spread in three of those four wins. The Commodores have struggled this season, but their last home game was an impressive win over Texas A&M. They have covered the spread in three of their last four home games, and this looks like a good spot to back the home underdog in a very winnable game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-17-24 | Liberty v. Sam Houston State +4.5 | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on SHSU. Sam Houston is a half game out of first place in the C-USA, and they are 9-2 at home. They have beat the best teams in the conference at home (Western Kentucky and LA-Tech). Liberty comes in as a favorite, despite a 2-5 road record. It's fair to say that this Liberty team is overrated. They have been favored in four of their last five road games. They went 0-5 ATS and 1-4 straight up in those games. This looks like a clear case of the wrong team favored, and worthy of a sprinkle on the moneyline. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-17-24 | Kansas v. Oklahoma +2 | 67-57 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on Oklahoma. Kansas is no longer the cream of the crop in the BIG12, and they find themselves in a tough spot here on the road at Oklahoma. Even at full strength, this team has struggled on the road losing five of seven. Their most recent road game was a 29 point loss at Texas Tech. Leading scorer Kevin McCullar Jr. didn't play, and he's still dealing with a bone bruise. Bill Self expressed optimism that McCullar can return to the lineup, but suggested his role might be limited. The Sooners are 13-2 at home, and just a game back of Kansas in the BIG12 standings. No way Kansas should be the favorite in this spot. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-17-24 | New Mexico State v. Western Kentucky -9 | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on WKU. The Hilltoppers host New Mexico State, and this is the ultimate revenge spot. I bet on New Mexico State in the last meeting, and I was fortunate to be on the right side of one of one of the wildest comebacks this conference has ever seen. The Aggies trailed by 23 points five minutes into the second half at home, and rallied to win the game outright. This team is 0-11 on the road, and I don't think they can count on another miracle here in Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 11-1 at home, and their last home game was a double digit win over UTEP. Western Kentucky has covered in five of six, while the Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-13-24 | New Mexico v. Nevada | Top | 83-82 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEV. The Wolfpack are 12-1 at home, and they have a revenge game on tap against New Mexico on Tuesday. The Lobos crushed Nevada at home earlier this season by a score of 89-55. The Wolfpack had won nine straight versus New Mexico prior to that. Nevada has won four of five, and three of those four wins came against ranked teams (San Diego State, Utah State and Colorado State). New Mexico has lost two of three, with their only win during that span coming at Wyoming. This looks like two teams trending in opposite directions, and a significant edge for the home team. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-07-24 | Raptors -6.5 v. Hornets | 123-117 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TOR. The Raptors were blown out by the Pelicans in their last game, but that was the second game of a back to back after pushing Oklahoma City to the brink the night before. They should be in good shape here against a Hornets team that is in full on tank mode. The Hornets have lost eight straight, and the average margin of defeat in those games is 10+ points. The Raptors have won seven of the last nine head to head meetings, and they covered in all seven of those wins. Four of those wins came at Charlotte. This looks like a get right game for a young team with new talent, as Quickley and Barrett are still getting into the swing of things. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-04-24 | UAB +7.5 v. SMU | Top | 69-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UAB. The Blazers have won 10 of their last 12 games, and they are coming off an outright win as an underdog at North Texas. They had previously lost on the road at Charlotte by just six, and covered as a double digit underdog at FAU. Overall the Blazers are 4-3 on the road this season, and they have won seven straight against SMU. That includes three outright wins at SMU. The Mustangs are 10-2 at home, but their last home game was a four point win over Tulane. It looks like the home team is asked to cover too many points here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-03-24 | Oregon v. UCLA +1.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UCLA. The Bruins have been futile offensively at times this season, but they come into Saturday's home game against Oregon as winners of four of their last five overall. The one loss came on the road at Arizona in a close game. The Bruins lost 64-59 at Oregon earlier this season, and that sets up a revenge angle here at home. The Ducks have lost three of their last four at UCLA and the one win came in overtime. The Ducks have been hit hard by the injury bug, putting their depth to the test. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-03-24 | Liberty v. UTEP +5 | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTEP. The Liberty Flames have struggled in their first year in the C-USA, and after losing five of seven games and going 0-4 on the road, they have no business coming into tonight's game asked to cover a handful of points. UTEP is 11-1 overall at home, and 3-0 at home in conference play. The teams they have beaten at home (WKU, JVST & MTU) all sit higher in the C-USA standings than Liberty. This looks like another clear case of the wrong team favored. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-03-24 | South Florida +6.5 v. North Texas | 60-55 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on USF. The Bulls come into North Texas as winners of 12 of their last 13 overall. That includes upset wins over the likes of Florida State and Memphis. The one game they did lose came on the road at UAB by just four points. UAB just handed North Texas a home loss. I don't think the bookmakers give the Bulls enough credit, and I like their chances of keeping this game within the number if not winning outright. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-02-24 | Ohio State v. Iowa -5 | 77-79 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IOWA. These teams both rank near the bottom of the BIG10, but Iowa is still a tough nut to crack when they play at home. They are 9-3 at home, losing to Purdue, Maryland and Michigan. Their wins have all come by five or more points, beating Rutgers by nine and Nebraska by 18. Ohio State is 0-5 on the road, and they are coming off three straight double digit losses. They lost by 25 at Northwestern and by 14 at Nebraska in their last two road games. The Buckeyes are 1-6 straight up in their last seven, and all six losses came by 5+ points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-31-24 | Florida v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 94-91 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on UK. The Gators lost at home to Kentucky earlier this season, so is this a revenge spot? I don't like the revenge angle here, as Kentucky is the far better team and Florida struggles on the road. The Gators have lost three of four road games this season, and they were 4-7 on the road last year. Kentucky is 9-1 SU in the last 10 head to head meetings, and they have covered in five straight and eight of the last 10 versus Florida. The Gators rank dead last in the SEC in opponent's scoring, and Kentucky ranks second in the conference in scoring averaging over 88 points per game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-29-24 | Lakers v. Rockets +1.5 | 119-135 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on HOU. So I had the Warriors at home versus LA on Saturday, and it was a soul crushing defeat. Watching the Lakers come back in the fourth quarter, aided by an enormous disparity in free throws (43-16). Golden State hit what appeared to be the game winning three-point shot in the final seconds, but perhaps fitting that the officials sent LeBron to the line to win the game as time expired. As much as it puts a bad taste in my mouth for betting on any future games involving LeBron and the Lakers, this just looks like a classic let down spot for LA. Not only did LeBron and AD each log 45+ minutes at Golden State, but tonight's game is the first leg of a back to back with a game at Atlanta tomorrow. The Rockets are healthy, and they have won three of their last four home meetings versus LA. I'll take the home dog. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-24-24 | Colorado v. Washington +3.5 | Top | 98-81 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASH. So Colorado might well be the better team here, but they have no business coming in to Seattle as a road favorite. The Huskies only home loss in conference play came by just two points versus Oregon. They beat Gonzaga in a home game outside of the PAC12. Colorado has lost all four road games so far this season, and has dropped four of their last five at Washington. This appears to be a case of the wrong team favored. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-22-24 | Grizzlies v. Raptors -6.5 | 108-100 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TOR. The Memphis Grizzlies are in rough shape since losing Ja Morant for the rest of the season. They come to Toronto as losers of six of their last seven, and it looks like Marcus Smart and Desmond Bane won't be traveling north of the border. It's possible that only one of the starting five will dress for tonight's game in Toronto. The Raptors are rebuilding, but they have done very well in the trade market getting several solid players in return for Pascal Siakam and OJ Anunoby. This is a game that should be tilted in favor of the home team. The Raptors have won seven of the last 10 head to head meetings, including the last two in Memphis. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-21-24 | Pacers v. Suns -5 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PHO. The Pacers have lost three of four, and they are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Portland Blazers. They could be down a few key players here in Phoenix tonight, and Pascal Siakam is still trying to figure out where he fits in. It takes time to gel, and that is evidenced by the fact that the Big Three in Phoenix is just starting to show what they can do. The Suns have won four straight, and Devin Booker dropped 52 on the Pelicans on Friday. This looks like a tough spot for a Pacers team that has lost six of nine versus the Western Conference this season. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-19-24 | Hawks v. Heat -6 | 109-108 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on MIA. So this is the first game of a back to back for Atlanta, and Trey Young is questionable with an illness. That makes me think that this should be a throw away game, and rather than rush their star back before he's 100 percent, they should concentrate of tomorrow's home game against the Cavs. The last time Atlanta played back to back games they lost both by 20+ points. Miami has won and covered in both meetings this season, and they have won seven of the last nine, covering in five of those seven wins. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-14-24 | Washington -1 v. UCLA | 61-73 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on WASH. The UCLA Bruins have lost four straight, and eight of their last nine overall. During that span they scored an average of 52 points per game. They haven't given us any indication that they can turn things around, as it's tough to win games when you can't score. Washington comes in off a home win over Arizona State. Washington comes in scoring over 81 points per game on 47 percent shooting, while the Bruins rank dead last in the PAC12 shooting just 41 percent from the field and averaging 64 points per game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-13-24 | Knicks -7 v. Grizzlies | 106-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYK. The Grizzlies are coming off a nine point home loss to the Clippers last night, and they are just 3-14 at home this season. Playing the second game of a back to back with a thin lineup tonight, they might be looking at a double digit loss to the Knicks. New York has won five of six since acquiring OJ Anunoby, and they have been dominant defensively during that span. The Grizz have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-12-24 | Pelicans v. Nuggets -5.5 | 113-125 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DEN. The Nuggets are 15-4 at home, and they are 7-3 in the last 10 versus the Pelicans. Call this a revenge game after New Orleans won at home 115-110 in the last meeting in November. The Pelicans come in with three of their starters listed as questionable (Zion, CJ & Brandon Ingram). The Pelicans lost 134-116 in their last game at Denver, and we might be expecting another blowout here tonight. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-10-24 | Wizards v. Pacers -7.5 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. How will the Pacers get on without Tyrese Haliburton? Well they should do just fine against a Wizards team that is 3-17 on the road. They came storming back to beat the Celtics at home in the second half without their leading scorer in their last game. Washington are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road, while the Pacers have won seven of their last eight. I expect Indiana to rally for another double digit win here at home against a bottom feeder. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-06-24 | Auburn v. Arkansas +3 | 83-51 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ARK. Auburn comes into Arkansas as a favorite asked to cover points despite losing four of the last five meetings, and having not won at Arkansas in the last three seasons. The Razorbacks are 7-1 at home, including a win over Duke without their leading scorer. Even though they finished in the bottom half of the standings in the SEC last year, their home record of 14-3 was right up there with the top teams. Auburn has lost seven straight road games, and this looks like a case of the wrong team favored. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-30-23 | Raptors v. Pistons +4.5 | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DET. Have you heard of the Casey Curse? For those who don't know, the Raptors fired coach Casey after finishing first in the East, but losing to LeBron and the Cavs in the playoffs several years ago. The Raptors went on to win a championship with Nick Nurse, and Detroit hired coach Casey. The Pistons have long been the laughing stock of the league, but the one team that they could beat was Toronto. While Casey is no longer the Pistons coach, and the Raptors have won five straight meetings versus Detroit, the Pistons are still 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head to head. Both these teams look like they are tanking, but the Pistons are desperate to snap their historic losing streak. This looks like as good a spot as any for the Pistons to get a W. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-29-23 | Washington State v. Utah -6.5 | Top | 58-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Utah. Both these teams are 9-2, but Utah has more impressive wins. They won at St. Mary's and they beat #14 ranked BYU. The Utes are 6-0 at home, and they won by 14 in the most recent meeting versus WSU last January. Utah is 8-2 straight up, and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 versus the Cougars. This will be the first true road game for Washington State, and they were 4-8 on the road last year. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-25-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 334 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER. The defending champs are 11-2 at home, and the Joker is still in a class of his own. While the mainstream media refuses to five Nikola Jokic the credit he is due, he continues to dominate everything in his path. The Warriors five game winning streak only puts them a game above .500, and four of those five wins came at home. Now they are on the road, and Steph Curry averages over 30 points per game at home, and just over 26 points per game on the road. The Warriors have lost four straight in this series, and they are 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-22-23 | Mavs v. Rockets -7.5 | 96-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on HOU. The Rockets are coming off a brutal home loss to the Hawks, but this looks like a nice bounce back spot against an undermanned Dallas team. The Mavs entire starting lineup is expected to be out due to injuries, and that includes leading scorer Luka Doncic. The Rockets are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall, and they rank 1st in the NBA in opponent's scoring average. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-19-23 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -6.5 | 115-113 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on N.O. The Grizzlies will get Ja Morant back tonight, and there is no doubt that Memphis will be a better team with his return. Don't expect that impact to be significant here in the second game of a back to back on the road at New Orleans. He hasn't played since the first round of last year's playoffs. Normally in a situation like this you expect to see a limited number of minutes in the first game back. The Pelicans are winners of four straight, and three of those four wins were blowouts. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-16-23 | Florida Atlantic -9 v. St Bonaventure | 64-54 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on FAU. The Owls are off to an impressive 8-2 start to the season, and six of those eight wins came by double digits. Their last loss came at a neutral site versus Illinois, and the Illini shot over 63 percent from the field. Despite that the final score was relatively close (98-89). They are simply in a different class than this St. Bonnies squad, that faces a ranked team for the first time. The Bonnies lost by 17 to unranked Auburn. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-15-23 | New Mexico v. New Mexico State +15.5 | 73-72 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on NMSU. The Lobos come into this rivalry game with a 9-1 record, and one of those wins was a 44-point blowout at home versus New Mexico State. They could be primed for a bit of a let down here in just their second road game of the season. We don't normally see blowouts in this rivalry, prior to this season the average margin of victory in the previous four head to head meetings was just four points. The Lobos have failed to cover in six of their last seven as a road favorite. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-15-23 | Magic +6 v. Celtics | 111-128 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ORL. The Celtics are undefeated at home this season, but this appears to be a tough spot for the home team. Boston is playing the second game of a back to back after winning back to back home games in a two game set versus Cleveland. History favors the visitors here, as the Magic are 6-0 ATS in the last six head to head meetings. What is really shocking, is that Orlando has won four straight outright in this series. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-11-23 | Nets v. Kings -4.5 | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SAC. The Kings finished first in the Pacific Division last year, and they currently trail the LA Lakers by just a half game. They host the Brooklyn Nets tonight, and a win could put them in first place. The Kings won and covered in both head to head meetings versus the Nets last year. They won at home by a score of 153-121. The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus teams from the Eastern Conference. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-11-23 | Howard v. Pennsylvania -4.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Penn. The Quakers are 6-1 at home, and the one loss came in overtime versus Belmont. They host the Howard Bison who are 1-4 on the road. The Bison have lost 14 of their last 15 versus teams from the Ivy League. The Quakers are 12-1 in their last 13 home games, and they have have won five of their last six versus teams from the Mid East. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-05-23 | North Texas v. Boise State -4.5 | 64-69 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BSU. North Texas is the poor man's version of the Virginia Cavaliers, and that's not a knock on them. They come into Boise as defending NIT champs, and they have won five of seven so far this season. Their two losses came by a combined five points, so why on earth would we be betting on them to lose by 5+ here tonight? Well it is their first road game, and they face a Broncos team that has won 16 of it's last 17 home games. Boise is coming off a neutral site win over St. Mary's, a team that plays a similar style to the Mean Green. We expect a relatively comfortable win for Boise, predicting a final score of 68-60. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-03-23 | Creighton -3.5 v. Nebraska | 89-60 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on Creighton. | |||||||
12-01-23 | Purdue v. Northwestern +8 | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NW. The Wildcats finished 2nd in the BIG10 last year, and they were 13-5 at home. Northwesters is bringing back leading scorer Boo Buie, along with two more senior starters. Senior guard Ryan Langborg transferred from Princeton, giving them a starting lineup loaded with four seniors. The Boilermakers won two of three meetings last year, but lost the last meeting at Northwestern by a score of 64-58. These teams have a history of playing close games, as only one of the last five head to head meetings has been decided by more than six points. Purdue comes in ranked #1 in the country, and history tells us that can often be the kiss of death. Purdue has failed to cover in five straight road games, while the Wildcats have covered in seven of their last eight at home. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-30-23 | Creighton v. Oklahoma State +8 | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on OKST. The Cowboys are just 3-3, and they will play a ranked team for the first time at home tonight. They are getting eight points, and their three losses this season all came by five points or fewer. Creighton is coming off a 21-point loss to unranked Colorado State at a neutral site. This Creighton team is playing it's first true road game, and the Blue Jays lost their first four road games last season. They didn't win a true road game until mid January, and they were 5-6 overall on the road last season. I'll take the home team plus the points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-29-23 | Duke -5.5 v. Arkansas | 75-80 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Duke. So Arkansas is coming off back to back losses, to Memphis and North Carolina. Their leading scorer was carted off in the loss to the Tar Heels with a back injury, and he's doubtful to play here. That didn't have much of an effect on the result, as they were losing by double digits in the dying minutes at the time of the injury. Now they host a #7 ranked Duke team that can cause them plenty of problems. Arkansas has failed to cover in six straight, and they have lost eight in a row versus teams ranked in the Top 25. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-28-23 | Notre Dame v. South Carolina -7 | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SOCAR. The Gamecocks finished near the bottom of the SEC last year, but they come into tonight's home game against Notre Dame with a 5-0 record. Their leading scorer BJ Mack (F) is a senior transfer from Wofford. Junior guard Meechie Johnsoin is back after averaging 12.7 points last year. He's joined in the backcourt by senior transfer Myles Stute from Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks are certainly a lot more experienced than Notre Dame who is lead by a pair of talented freshmen. The Irish are facing an SEC team for the second time this season, and they lost by 24 in a neutral site game against Auburn. The Irish have lost 10 straight road games and 15 of their last 20 overall. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-27-23 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Hampton -0.5 | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on HAMPTON. The Pirates were just 5-13 in the CAA and 8-24 overall last year. They still posted a winning record at home, and seven of their eight wins were in home games. Their only home game this season was a win over Florida Gulf Coast. They have overhauled their starting lineup to include three seniors, including leading scorer Tedrick Wilcox who came in via transfer. UMBC was just 8-8 in the American East last season, but they lost 10 of their 15 road games. Hampton is 5-1 ATS in their last five home games while UMBC is 1-9 SU in their last 10 on the road. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-26-23 | Butler v. Boise State | 70-56 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BSU. Boise State won 27 games last year, finishing first in the Mountain West and ranked in the Top 25 in the country. They bring back three of their top four scorers from last year's team, and they look like an early favorite to win the conference again. The Broncos are 3-2 with a pair of losses to ACC teams, and they face a tough opponent Sunday in the Butler Bulldogs. Butler is 4-2 with a pair of losses to ranked teams. Butler finished ninth in the Big East last year, winning 14 games. Only four of those wins came away from home. All five starters are gone, but it remains to be seen if this team is any better. This will be a good test for both teams but I am going to go with the experience of the Broncos. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-25-23 | East Carolina v. George Mason -6 | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play o GMU. George Mason will host the East Carolina Pirates Saturday afternoon, and this will be the first true road game for East Carolina this season. The Pirates were 2-9 on the road last year. George Mason was 14-2 at home last season, and they bring back two senior starters from last year including starting PG Ronald Polite. The Patriots are 3-0 at home, and the average margin of victory in those games was over 13 points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-24-23 | USC v. Oklahoma | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on USC. I bet against Oklahoma yesterday, and here is what I said prior to their win over Iowa: "The Sooners finished dead last in the BIG12 last year, but the majority of the starters from that team have moved on. We can't read much into Oklahoma's 4-0 start as they haven't really played anybody." The Hawkeyes were 4-of-23 from beyond the arc and shot just 35 percent from the field losing 79-67. The Trojans are coming off a 71-63 win over Seton Hall, and they hit 10-of-23 three-pointers in the win. Here is what I said about USC earlier this season: "the Trojans are bringing back 5th year senior Boogie Ellis, and he is joined in the back court by McDonalds All American Isaiah Collier. This USC squad should have an edge in both talent and experience." GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-23-23 | Oklahoma v. Iowa | 79-67 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Iowa. The Sooners finished dead last in the BIG12 last year, but the majority of the starters from that team have moved on. We can't read much into Oklahoma's 4-0 start as they haven't really played anybody. Iowa went to Creighton and lost, but played pretty well in a 92-84 loss. Senior forward Ben Krikke has made a huge impact transferring in from Valparaiso. He's leading the Hawkeyes with 20 points per game. Iowa finished Top 5 in the BIG10 last year, and it appears that this program is simply in better shape than Oklahoma at the moment. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-22-23 | Mavs -1 v. Lakers | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DAL. The Lakers are 6-1 in their last seven overall, but the one loss came in the second game of a back to back. Anthony Davis was terrible in the loss to the Kings, scoring nine points on 3-of-9 shooting. The Mavs come in well rested, and they are hungry coming off back to back losses. Kyrie scored 38 points in a win over the Lakers last March, his last visit to the Staples Center. Luka Doncic didn't even play in that game. This just looks like a great spot for the Mavs, and a let down spot for LA after beating Utah by 31 last night. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-19-23 | Wichita State v. St. Louis +5 | 88-69 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SLU. I bet against the Shockers in their blowout loss to Liberty on Friday. Here is what I said prior to that game: "The Shockers were just .500 in the American Athletic last season, and the majority of their starting lineup has moved on. New recruits and incoming transfers offer little reason for optimism as far as being a contender in their conference this season, and they may be overmatched here in a tough non-conference game." I think the bookmakers have the wrong team favored in this one. The Bilikens have an experienced starting lineup with returning seniors from last year. While leading scorer Sincere Parker may not play, it's not like the Bilikens are thin at guard. They still have Gibson Jimerson who was the top scorer last year and Freshman Djordje Curcic who played for the Serbian National Team. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-19-23 | Pistons v. Raptors -6.5 | 113-142 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TOR. When the Pistons hired Monte Williams as their head coach, it may have put an end to the "Casey Curse". The Pistons owned the Raptors under Casey, who was spurned by the Raptors despite several winning seasons as bench boss in Toronto. The Pistons come in as losers of 10 straight, and the majority of those losses were of the blowout variety. Despite failing to cover in nine of the last 10 meetings, the Raptors have won four straight in this series. A healthy OJ Anunoby should benefit the home team. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-18-23 | Thunder v. Warriors +3 | 130-123 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on GSW. I am rolling the dice here hoping Steph Curry plays as a game time decision. Kerr said he might miss "a game or two", and he's missed the Warriors last two games. They are playing the second game of a two game set at home versus Oklahoma City, and while the Thunder won big in the first leg, they were only up by one-point with 2:41 remaining in the third quarter. Kerr limited his starters minutes in that game, and guys like Paul and Wiggins should get more time tonight if Curry doesn't play. It's normally a good play to take the team coming off a loss in a two game set like this, even if the Warriors are shorthanded. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-17-23 | St. John's +1 v. Dayton | 81-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SJU. Dayton finished second in the A-1O, and they were 5-6 on the road. The Flyers played on the road just twice in non-conference play last season, losing by a combined 36 points to UNLV and Virginia Tech. St. Johns returns senior center Joel Soriano, who was the leading scorer averaging 15.2 points per game last year. They have surrounded him with several senior transfers who were stars on their respective teams last year. Jordan Dingle (G) averaged 23.4 points per game with PENN last year, and Daniss Jenkins came with coach Pitino from Iona. Iona went a combined 64-22 overall and 40-9 in regular-season conference play under Rick Pitino. Dayton rallied late to come back after trailing LSU BY 15 points midway through the second half yesterday. This could set them up for a let down here on Friday. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-14-23 | Colgate +5.5 v. Syracuse | 75-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Colgate. This is a revenge game for Syracuse, as they lost at home versus Colgate in non-conference play last year. Colgate went on to win the Patriot League and made the NCAA Tournament. The Orange have a new head coach, and they lost their leading scorer Joseph Girard and leading rebounder Jesse Edwards. Colgate is bringing back senior forward Keegan Records, sophomore Braenen Smith at guard, and senior forward Ryan Moffatt. I'll take the points here in what should be a close game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-13-23 | Florida Gulf Coast +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on FGCU. The Eagles have been known to slay a few giants in the past, and they have an experienced lineup of returning starters who are mostly seniors. They already went to Indiana and gave the Hoosiers a run for their money, losing by six in a game that they were within two in the final 35 seconds. Pittsburgh was one of the best teams in the ACC last year, finishing with the same record as Duke. The Panthers lost their top four guards to graduation, and the names they brought in via transfer don't exactly pop off the page. This looks like too big of a number for a team in transition to be asked to cover. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-10-23 | Dayton v. Northwestern -5 | 66-71 | Push | 0 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NW. The Wildcats finished 2nd in the BIG10 last year, and they were 13-5 at home. Dayton finished second in the A-1O, and they were 5-6 on the road. The Flyers played on the road just twice in non-conference play last season, losing by a combined 36 points to UNLV and Virginia Tech. Northwesters is bringing back leading scorer Boo Buie, along with two more senior starters. Senior guard Ryan Langborg transferred from Princeton, giving them a starting lineup loaded with four seniors. They should have their way with an inferior Dayton team here in Evanston. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-09-23 | Tarleton St v. Florida International -5 | 82-65 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on FIU. The Panthers were a middle of the road team in Conference USA last season, but they were pretty good at home. They won 11 games on their home court (11-7) overall, despite a losing record in conference play. They lost leading scorer Denver Jones in a transfer to Auburn, but bring almost every body else back. Tarleton State was in the middle of the pack in the WAC, but they were just 2-12 on the road last year. Their leading scorer transferred to Arkansas State, and their starting PG graduated. Junior Shamir Bougues also transferred to Vermont. That leaves them replacing their entire backcourt with freshman and role players. I thinking laying five here against a team that lost 86 percent of their road games last year seems like a bargain. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-08-23 | Blazers v. Kings -8.5 | 118-121 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SAC. Portland is expected to finish at or near the bottom of the Western Conference this season, and with two starters including their leading scorer out of the lineup for this road game, they could get blown out. Sure the Kings are without De'Aaron Fox, but they still have the depth and talent advantage as well as home court. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-08-23 | Arizona State v. Mississippi State -3.5 | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MISST. The Bulldogs are bringing back leading score Tolu Smith for his senior season, and he is joined by seniors Shakeef Moore, Cameron Mathews, Dashawn Davis and DJ Jeffries. That's right, their entire starting five are back, and they are all seniors. That kind of experience should prove to much for an Arizona State team that lost the majority if it's starters, and has brought in new recruits and transfers that might take time to start to gel. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-06-23 | USC -2.5 v. Kansas State | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on USC. The Wildcats lost both their top two scorers and their starting PG to the NBA, and they are going to struggle to replace Marquis Nowell. K-State is projected to finish in the bottom half of the BIG12 while USC is expected to contend for a PAC12 Championship. The Trojans are bringing back 5th year senior Boogie Ellis, and he is joined in the back court by McDonalds All American Isaiah Collier. This USC squad should have an edge in both talent and experience, and the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas is familiar territory, as the venue for the PAC12 Tournament last year. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-01-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -6.5 | 95-89 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYK. I had the Knicks in last night's win in Cleveland, and often I look to fade a team that wins Game 1 of a home and home series. This is a different situation all together though, as the Cavs are banged up, and Donovan Mitchell was a game time decision to play with a hamstring injury last night. He played, but will he be good to go in the second game of a back to back? Here is what I said yesterday: "The Cavs have some key injuries, and Donovan Mitchell is expected to be a game time decision tonight. If he plays, he's dealing with a sore hamstring that is likely to affect his performance. Starting PG Darius Garland and Center Jared Allen are both out with injuries. The Knicks are 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings versus the Cavs, and they have won three of their last four at Cleveland. The Knicks have lost two of three to start the season, but they have been competitive even in those losses. At full strength, this spot looks ideal for the Knicks to get back into the win column." GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-29-23 | Lakers v. Kings -2 | 127-132 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SAC. The young Kings pushed the Warriors to the brink in last year's playoffs, and while the Dubs are a year older, the Kings are only getting better. Sacramento was the highest scoring team in the NBA last year, and they have picked up right where they left off by scoring 130 in their season opening win over Utah. The addition of Euro League MVP Sasha Vuzenkov isn't going to hurt. The Lakers looked old in their opening night loss on the road in Denver, and I think they will look old here against the Kings in Sacramento. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-25-23 | Heat +8 v. Celtics | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on MIA. So the Celtics got a game, but they are still down 3-1 and they lost both home games in this series. A return to The Garden has the Celtics as a massive favorite in Game 5. You remember what Einstein said about insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. The Heat were a huge underdog in Game 5 in Milwaukee, and they won that game 128-126. Miami still has the better coach, a supporting cast that has played it's role perfectly a superstar that has delivered in the clutch more than anyone wearing green and white. I'll take the points, and I'll sprinkle on the moneyline. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-23-23 | Celtics v. Heat | 116-99 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. So I said prior to both Game 3 of this series, and Game 4 of the WCF that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. It was no surprise to see Denver win Game 4, as NBA teams up 3-0 in a series win Game 4 roughly 68 percent of the time historically. The Nuggets did it on the road, and the Heat can do it here at home. It's so clear that Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the superior coach. I been riding the Heat this entire post-season, and if it ain't broke don't fix it! GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-22-23 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Lakers | 113-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Denver. My comments about Game 3 in Miami are just as applicable here in Game 4 in LA. Here is what I said prior to last night's game: Albert Einstein said that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result". In my humble opinion betting Boston as a road favorite in this spot fits that description perfectly. The myth that Boston is the superior team has been exposed. Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the better coach. Now the Heat have home court, and the Celtics are still reeling trying to figure out what went wrong. I'll take the points, even though I don't think I'll need them. IMO this is another example of the Wrong Team Favored! GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics v. Heat +3.5 | 102-128 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. Albert Einstein said that "the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result". In my humble opinion betting Boston as a road favorite in this spot fits that description perfectly. The myth that Boston is the superior team has been exposed. Jimmy Butler is the best player in this series, and Erik Spoelstra is by far the better coach. Now the Heat have home court, and the Celtics are still reeling trying to figure out what went wrong. I'll take the points, even though I don't think I'll need them. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-20-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -5.5 | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAL. Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want to, but the NBA Finals are about to be a ratings disaster with the Denver Nuggets versus Miami Heat matchup looking more and more likely. If the Lakers can't get back in this series, a lot of money goes up in smoke. I think you're going to see the refs calls fouls for even looking at AD and LeBron in tonight's game. LA won Game 3 against the Warriors 127-97, and they had an edge in free throws to the tune of 37-17. In Game 3 against the Grizzlies they won 111-101. It's not like the first two games in Denver weren't close, and the Nuggets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Los Angeles. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games, and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on BOS. As much as I disagree with how big a favorite Boston was in Game 1, and here in Game 2, I just think this is a spot where they are gonna come out swinging and they will get all the calls. I have joked about a script in the league office that has the Celtics playing the Lakers in the Finals, but if you saw the referee in Game 1 react to Jimmy Butler scoring a key bucket, you would believe it. Check it out on Twitter it's going viral. The Celtics lost Game 1 at home versus Philly, and they came back and won 121-87 in Game 2. Don't be surprised if we see something similar here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Miami Heat. This is a rematch of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, and the Celtics won that series in a Game 7 that was decided on the final shot. Yet the bookmakers have installed Boston as a huge favorite here in Game 1 and for the series. Miami closed out the #1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in just five games in the first round. They needed six games to eliminate the New York Knicks. That has them playing two fewer games than Boston so far. The team that has played fewer games heading into the Conference Finals, has advanced to the Finals in 16 of the last 17 such occasions. Coming off a big Game 7 win over Philly, with Jason Tatum scoring 51 points, could set the Celtics up for a let down in Game 1. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOS. The Celtics have all the momentum heading into Game 7 at the Garden. Boston is 26-9 all time in Game 7s, and the Sixers are 6-11 all time in Game 7s. Home teams have won 79 percent of Game 7s all time in the NBA Playoffs. The Celtics are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games, and they have covered in eight of their last 11 versus Philadelphia. The home team might get the calls here, and the Sixers could end up on the wrong side of a one-sided Game 7. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-10-23 | Heat +4 v. Knicks | 103-112 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIA. The Heat closed out the Bucks in Game 5 in Milwaukee, and they are an underdog here in a potential close out game in New York. I pity the fool who bets against Jimmy Butler in the playoffs! I said this before Game 4: "This isn't the same Heat team we saw during the regular season, and this isn't the regular season version of Jimmy Butler. Playoff Jimmy is a different beast all together. Butler scored 28 points, leading all scorers in Game 3. This is despite playing on a bad ankle. He's likely to be even better here in Game 4. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and they have covered in six straight overall. Giannis and the Bucks couldn't win in Miami, and I think it's asking too much for the Knicks to win on the road here." GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DEN. So the story in Phoenix was Devin Booker scoring 83 combined points on 79 percent shooting in Games 3 and 4. He's a career 46 percent shooter, and he shot 49 percent during the regular season. If the Suns need Booker to make every shot he takes to win close games in Phoenix, that's likely a recipe for disaster in Denver in Game 5. Kevin Durant scored 39 points in Game 3, and 36 points in Game 4. He got to the free throw line for 29 attempts in those games. He averaged just 26.5 points per game in the first two games in Denver, and only shot six free throws in those games. The last Game in Denver the Suns were held to just 87 points. The home team is 9-1 straight up and Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. GL, Jesse Schule |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Sean Higgs | $1,089 |
Dave Price | $925 |
Bobby Conn | $709 |
Sal Michaels | $694 |
R&R Totals | $690 |
Rob Vinciletti | $647 |
Juan Carlos Flores | $615 |
Chip Chirimbes | $572 |
Doc's Sports | $498 |
Jim Feist | $416 |