PAGE_HEADER

This is a 5* play on Over.

Jose Aldo has gone the distance in each of his last four fights, and he faces an opponent who has gone the distance in four of his last six fights. The bookmakers have this projected to be a close fight, and it would be no surprise if this fight goes the distance.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Oliveira.

Charles Oliveira has won 10 straight fights, and impressive fashion. His last three wins came against Poirier, Chandler and Ferguson. He finished nine of his last 10 opponents, with only Ferguson going the distance. I liked Oliveira before the weigh in, and after he missed weight the money has been flowing in steady on Gaethje. I did a little digging, and since the UFC introduced its early weigh-in procedures in June 2016, betting favorites who missed weight went on to win at a rate of 76.2%. Oliveira didn't look any worse for wear at the weigh in, so I don't expect it to impact the fight a great deal.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Petr Yan.

Yan comes in with a record of 15-1, and the one blemish on his record came by split decision back in 2016. He's since won 10 consecutive fights, five of those by KO. Aljamain Sterling has won five fights since his last loss in 2017, all of those wins coming by decision or submission. He hasn't faced anyone as accomplished as Yan, and I think he may be coming in a little overrated. With over seven months to train, Yan should be at his best, and superior striking ability should allow him to punish Sterling if he fails in take down attempts.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under 4.5.

Darren Till has only fought five full rounds once in his career, when he defeated Wonderboy by decision. He's fighting a much bigger, much harder hitting Robert Whittaker here tonight. His last fight was a win by decision over Kelvin Gatselum, but he had previously lost to Jorge Masvidal and Tyronne Woodley, both of those fights ending in the secondf round. Till should know his best chance to win this fight is to finish Whittaker early, and he has a reputation as a finisher. He has 21 career fights, and only seven of those contests went the distance. Whittaker has 26 career fights, and 18 of those were decided before the final bell.

Take Under.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Raquel Pennington.

Pennington has lost three of her last four fights, but when you take a look at the opposition it says a lot. Among those three losses was a decision versus Holly Holm, and a fifth round KO loss to Amanda Nunes. She looks to get back on track tonight against a 43 year old fighter that has lost her last two fights. The 31 year old Pennington should be in far better shape than her opponent tonight, and I expect this to be a very one sided fight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Connor McGregor to win in the first round.

I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but this match looks a little suspicious. Connor McGregor is still one of the biggest draws in the fight game, and there is big money to be made promoting his fights. A lot more money in a rematch versus Khabib than there is in fighting Cowboy. This looks like a set up for a bigger fight. Connor has a record of 21-4, and 13 of those 21 wins came in the first round. He's five years younger than Cowboy, and Cerrone is coming off back to back losses, both of those fights ending early. I'll take the plus money on Connor to win this fight early.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Daniel Cormier.

Most fighters are well past their prime at the age of 40, but Daniel Cormier was 39 when he beat Miocic at UFC 226. It's hard to give Stipe the advantage as the younger fighter when he comes in at the age of 37, and has already lost to Cormier. The stats geeks love Miocic because of his significant strikes per minute rate, which is fourth best among heavyweights. At the end of the day the only stat that matters is wins and losses, and only Jon Jones has ever posed a problem for Cormier. We should see history repeat itself at UFC 241.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Paige VanZant.

When The Iceman predicted the demise of Ronda Rousey back in 2015, it wasn't very well received. Prior to her loss to Holly Holm, anyone who doubted Rousey was considered a conspiracy theorist. Now just 3 years later, Amanda Nunes is the undisputed champion, and Rousey is no longer relevant.

VanZant is far from the toughest women in MMA, but something she does have in common with Ronda is that she might be the most marketable female fighter. By carefully building an impressive record against inferior opponents, Dana White could turn VanZant into another cash cow the likes not seen since Rousey.

Ostovich has a career record of 4-4, and she's coming off a loss by rear naked choke to Montana De La Rosa. I don't think Ostovich will prove to be much competition for the more experienced VanZant.

Take VanZant.

GL,

Jesse Schule

MAYWEATHER vs McGREGOR

Floyd isn't just a better boxer than Connor McGregor,  he's widely considered to be the best ever. Certainly the best boxer of  his generation. He's almost impossible to hit, and it's going to take a  miracle for Connor McGregor to avoid a complete embarrassment in this  fight. The bookmakers opened with a line of 8-1, knowing that bettors  would likely jump on McGregor due to his popularity, and the overall  popularity of MMA in mainstream culture. Most expert analysts, former  and current fighters agree that Connor has almost no chance in this  fight. Still the public is lining up to back McGregor, driving the line  down to nearly 3-1.

I've heard it said by several people  in the mainstream media, that the only way Connor wins this fight is if  it's fixed. Now I'm not talking about guys like Alex Jones and Jesse  Ventura (the regular conspiracy theory crew), but respected sports media  personalities like Colin Cowherd and Clay Travis.

A fix  in professional sports isn't unheard of, but I find it really hard to  believe that anybody could convince Mayweather to throw a fight and ruin  his flawless career record. If (and it's still a huge if) that this  fight was fixed in order to set up a re-match, the most ideal situation  for both parties would be a McGregor disqualification in what had the  appearances of a close fight.

Now realistically, McGregor  is a professional fighter, but he's just an amateur boxer. He's going to  have a hell of a time getting anywhere near Mayweather, and when he  grows frustrated, fatigued, and maybe even hurt, he's likely to lose  track of the fact that he's not in the octagon. He might throw a kick,  an elbow, or strike a low blow.

I like the following bets on this fight:

Mayweather -334 @ Bet365
McGregor under 1.5 knockdowns -165 @ 5Dimes
McGregor DQ +575 @ 5Dimes
McGregor not to win a round +165 @ 5Dimes
Mayweather to record a knockdown  -165 @ 5Dimes