|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-08-22||Justin Gaethje v. Charles Oliveira -165||Top||0-1||Win||100||49 h 35 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Oliveira.
Charles Oliveira has won 10 straight fights, and impressive fashion. His last three wins came against Poirier, Chandler and Ferguson. He finished nine of his last 10 opponents, with only Ferguson going the distance. I liked Oliveira before the weigh in, and after he missed weight the money has been flowing in steady on Gaethje. I did a little digging, and since the UFC introduced its early weigh-in procedures in June 2016, betting favorites who missed weight went on to win at a rate of 76.2%. Oliveira didn't look any worse for wear at the weigh in, so I don't expect it to impact the fight a great deal.
|03-06-21||Aljamain Sterling v. Petr Yan -118||Top||1-0||Loss||-118||20 h 8 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Petr Yan.
Yan comes in with a record of 15-1, and the one blemish on his record came by split decision back in 2016. He's since won 10 consecutive fights, five of those by KO. Aljamain Sterling has won five fights since his last loss in 2017, all of those wins coming by decision or submission. He hasn't faced anyone as accomplished as Yan, and I think he may be coming in a little overrated. With over seven months to train, Yan should be at his best, and superior striking ability should allow him to punish Sterling if he fails in take down attempts.
|07-25-20||Darren Till v. Robert Whittaker UNDER 4.5||Top||0-1||Push||0||89 h 28 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Under 4.5.
Darren Till has only fought five full rounds once in his career, when he defeated Wonderboy by decision. He's fighting a much bigger, much harder hitting Robert Whittaker here tonight. His last fight was a win by decision over Kelvin Gatselum, but he had previously lost to Jorge Masvidal and Tyronne Woodley, both of those fights ending in the secondf round. Till should know his best chance to win this fight is to finish Whittaker early, and he has a reputation as a finisher. He has 21 career fights, and only seven of those contests went the distance. Whittaker has 26 career fights, and 18 of those were decided before the final bell.
|06-20-20||Marion Reneau v. Raquel Pennington -175||Top||0-1||Win||100||32 h 4 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Raquel Pennington.
Pennington has lost three of her last four fights, but when you take a look at the opposition it says a lot. Among those three losses was a decision versus Holly Holm, and a fifth round KO loss to Amanda Nunes. She looks to get back on track tonight against a 43 year old fighter that has lost her last two fights. The 31 year old Pennington should be in far better shape than her opponent tonight, and I expect this to be a very one sided fight.
|01-19-20||Donald Cerrone v. Conor McGregor -325||Top||0-1||Win||100||81 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Connor McGregor to win in the first round.
I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but this match looks a little suspicious. Connor McGregor is still one of the biggest draws in the fight game, and there is big money to be made promoting his fights. A lot more money in a rematch versus Khabib than there is in fighting Cowboy. This looks like a set up for a bigger fight. Connor has a record of 21-4, and 13 of those 21 wins came in the first round. He's five years younger than Cowboy, and Cerrone is coming off back to back losses, both of those fights ending early. I'll take the plus money on Connor to win this fight early.
|08-18-19||Stipe Miocic v. Daniel Cormier -138||Top||1-0||Loss||-138||24 h 56 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Daniel Cormier.
Most fighters are well past their prime at the age of 40, but Daniel Cormier was 39 when he beat Miocic at UFC 226. It's hard to give Stipe the advantage as the younger fighter when he comes in at the age of 37, and has already lost to Cormier. The stats geeks love Miocic because of his significant strikes per minute rate, which is fourth best among heavyweights. At the end of the day the only stat that matters is wins and losses, and only Jon Jones has ever posed a problem for Cormier. We should see history repeat itself at UFC 241.
|01-19-19||Rachael Ostovich v. Paige Vanzant -150||Top||0-2||Win||100||57 h 24 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Paige VanZant.
When The Iceman predicted the demise of Ronda Rousey back in 2015, it wasn't very well received. Prior to her loss to Holly Holm, anyone who doubted Rousey was considered a conspiracy theorist. Now just 3 years later, Amanda Nunes is the undisputed champion, and Rousey is no longer relevant.
VanZant is far from the toughest women in MMA, but something she does have in common with Ronda is that she might be the most marketable female fighter. By carefully building an impressive record against inferior opponents, Dana White could turn VanZant into another cash cow the likes not seen since Rousey.
Ostovich has a career record of 4-4, and she's coming off a loss by rear naked choke to Montana De La Rosa. I don't think Ostovich will prove to be much competition for the more experienced VanZant.
|08-26-17||Conor McGregor v. Floyd Mayweather Jr -550||Top||3-5||Win||100||1677 h 18 m||Show|
MAYWEATHER vs McGREGOR