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11-18-17 |
Kansas State v. Oklahoma State OVER 65 | | 45-40 |
Win | 100 | 88 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KSU@OKST to go OVER the total.
The Oklahoma State Cowboys rank second nationally scoring over 45 points per game, but they have struggled on defense. They lost their last home game by a score of 62-52 to Oklahoma, and they have up 42 points in last week's come from behind win at Iowa State. The Wildcats aren't known as a particularly high scoring team, but they have shown that they can take advantage of weak defenses. Kansas State scored 30+ points in wins over Baylor, Kansas and Texas Tech. That likely won't be enough to hang with the Cowboys in Stillwater though. History tells us we should see plenty of scoring here, as these two teams have gone over in six straight meetings. Last year the Cowboys won by a score of 43-37. The Cowboys have gone over in nine of their last 10 games in November, and four of their last five overall. The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between KSU and Oklahoma State, yet the total for this game is lower than it was in each of the Cowboy's last five home games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-12-17 |
Patriots v. Broncos OVER 46 | Top | 41-16 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NE@DEN to go OVER the total.
The Broncos defense used to be called the "no fly zone", but after giving up 51 points in a loss to the Eagles, that nick name is no longer appropriate. The Broncos host the Patriots this week, and with very little left to play for, I expect another half-hearted effort from the defense. The Patriots come in as winner of four straight, and they've played a lot better defense of late. This looks like it could be a tough game for New England to get up for, and the Pats have failed to cover in six of their last eight at Denver. History tells us to expect plenty of scoring when the Patriots are coming off a bye week, as the over is 6-1 in the last seven such situations. New England leads the NFL averaging 302 passing yards per game. As well as they've played defensively in recent weeks, they still rank below average allowing 22.4 points per game this season. I expect to see a high scoring game on Sunday night.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-12-17 |
Steelers v. Colts OVER 43.5 | | 20-17 |
Loss | -115 | 75 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PIT@IND to go OVER the total.
The Steelers went into Detroit with the league's #1 ranked pass defense, but Mathew Stafford lit them up in the dome for 423 yards. Pittsburgh walked away with the win however, and they are now in a comfortable spot in the AFC North. They come out of their bye week to face the Colts in Indianapolis, and this could be a tricky spot for the visitors. The Colts are coming off a win over Houston on the road last week, and their offense has held it's own without Andrew Luck. Jacoby Brissett threw for 308 yards and two TDs on 20-of-30 passing against the Texans. The Steelers should have plenty of success running the ball against Indy. The Colts rank 26th in the league against the run, and they have allowed an NFL high 10 rushing TDs. The Steelers have won four straight against the Colts, and they've scored an average of 41 points in the last three head to head meetings between the two teams. These teams have gone over the total in four of the last five meetings, and the number for this game is far lower than it was the last three times these teams met.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-11-17 |
Arizona State v. UCLA OVER 67 | | 37-44 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARZST@UCLA to go OVER the total.
With over 2700 passing yards, 20 TDs and 8 INTs, Josh Rosen is still one of the top quarterbacks in the country. The "Rosen" one was sidelined by a concussion against Utah last week, but he's expected back to face the Sun Devils at home. Arizona State's defense ranks 105th nationally against the pass, so Rosen and the UCLA offense could have a field day here at home. Unfortunately for the Bruins, their defense hasn't been able to stop anybody. UCLA ranks 121st nationally in total defense, allowing opponents to average almost 500 yards per game. The Bruins have gone over in seven of their last nine overall, and these two teams have gone over in five of the last seven head to head meetings. I expect another shootout here in LA, and the total looks a little to low given how poorly these two teams have played on defense.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-11-17 |
Notre Dame v. Miami-FL UNDER 57.5 | Top | 8-41 |
Win | 100 | 107 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ND@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Miami Hurricanes are 8-0, but there are still plenty of experts questioning if this team is truly a contender. We will find out this Saturday when they host Notre Dame, in what will be the biggest game of the week. The winner will have a clear path to the College Football Playoffs, while the loser will effectively be eliminated from playoff contention. With two great teams playing for such high stakes, we should see a great battle between two of the country's best defenses. The Canes held Virginia Tech to just 10 points, and 299 total yards in a 28-10 win last week. The Irish have played ranked teams just twice this season, and both of those games went under the total. They lost 20-19 at home to Georgia, and beat NC State 35-14 at home. Their win at Michigan State came before the Spartans were ranked in the Top 25. While that game went over the total (38-18), the combined points still fall short of the listed number for this game. These two teams have failed to reach the total in two of the last three head to head meetings, and none of those games saw a combined total higher than 57 points. The Hurricanes have gone under in five of their last six home games, while the Irish have failed to reach the total in 25 of their last 37 versus ACC teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-11-17 |
Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 51 | | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ALA@MISST to go OVER the total.
The Bulldogs have won four straight, but last week's 34-23 home win over Massachusetts was far from impressive. We've already seen the top teams in the SEC (Georgia and Auburn) run all over the Bulldogs, and I think Alabama is going to pile on the points here in Starkville. Last year the Bulldogs were crushed in a 51-3 loss at Alabama, and Jalen Hurts threw for 347 yards and four TDs in that game. Here at home I expect the Bulldogs to score a little more, but I don't think they'll have any more success slowing down the Alabama offense. Last week's win over LSU proved to be costly for Alabama, losing several key defensive players to injury. With the defense a little banged up, they might feel as though they need to score more points. The over is 6-2 in Alabama's last eight road games against teams with a winning record. This total looks a little too low.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-09-17 |
North Carolina v. Pittsburgh UNDER 49 | | 34-31 |
Loss | -104 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on UNC@PITT to go UNDER the total.
The Pittsburgh Panthers have been dominant on defense in back to back wins over Virginia and Duke. They have failed to reach the total in six straight overall, and the under is 3-1 in North Carolina's last four at Pittsburgh. The Tar Heels are 1-8 overall, and 0-6 within the conference. They are coming off an inspired performance in a home loss to Miami, coming up just short losing by a score of 24-19. Pittsburgh is doing the bulk of it's scoring with a heavy ground game, opting to run twice as often as they pass. In the win over the Cavs, they attempted just 18 passes while running the ball 40 times for 176 yards and two TDs. Sophomore quarterback Ben Dinucci has done an admirable job replacing starter Max Browne, but he's completed a pedestrian 54.9 percent of his passes with 4 TDs and 4 INTs in seven starts. Those numbers look great compared to Nate Elliot's 38 percent completion percentage, and 3 INTs with just one TD. It looks like the third stringer might be starting for the Tar Heels again tonight. North Carolina has failed to reach the total in five of their last six games played on a grass surface.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-07-17 |
Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 60.5 | | 28-38 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on BG@BUF to go Under the total.
The Bowling Green Falcons won big at Kent State last week, and they got off to a good start, out-scoring the Golden Flashes 17-0 in the first quarter. Backup quarterback Jarret Doege threw for just 174 yards and two TDs on 14-of-18 passing. Their leading rusher Josh Cleveland suffered an ankle injury, but freshman Andrew Clair had 111 yards and a TD on just eight carries. He's averaging eight yards per attempt, and has run for over 100 yards in four straight weeks. Buffalo has lost four straight, and their starting quarterback was lost for the season in a 71-68 loss to Western Michigan. Drew Anderson threw for 597 yards and seven TDs in that game, which was decided after seven overtime periods. The Bulls have scored an average of just 15.6 points per game, losing three straight since. It seems a bit odd that the total for this game is so high, given the Bulls offensive struggles. History tells us that points could be hard to come by, as these teams have gone under in each of the last five head to head meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-05-17 |
Chiefs v. Cowboys OVER 48.5 | | 17-28 |
Loss | -110 | 128 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KC@DAL to go OVER the total. The Kansas City Chiefs are ranked 29th in the NFL against the pass, and they have allowed an NFL worst 19 passing TDs. The Cowboys are also struggling on the defensive side of the ball, and we could see a high scoring battle here in Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys defense has given up less than 20 points in each of it's last two games, but I think that's a bit of fool's gold. The beat the 49ers by a score of 40-10 in San Francisco, but if it wasn't for a few costly turnovers, the Niners would have put more points on the board. Last week's 33-19 win at Washington was aided by weather. They face a Chiefs team today that ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring, and has totaled 60 points in their last two games. The Cowboys have gone over in four of their last five home games, while the Chiefs have gone over in six of their last seven overall. The Chiefs lost their last visit to Dallas by a score of 31-26, and another high scoring game is expected this Sunday. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-04-17 |
Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51.5 | | 3-38 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ORE@WAS to go UNDER the total.
The Ducks ended a three game losing streak with a home win over Utah, powered by a solid effort from running back Royce Freeman. He ran for 139 yards on 20 carries, and the Ducks totaled 347 yards rushing. They only attempted 13 passes, while running the ball a whopping 49 times. This one-dimensional offensive game plan won't likely be very successful on the road at Washington. The Huskies are ranked 2nd nationally in rushing yards allowed, right behind Alabama. They are holding opponents to just 2.2 yards per attempt (1st in the country), and have surrendered just three rushing TDs all year. The weather in Washington this time of year isn't all that pleasant, and while the snow storm might not start until Sunday, cold and wet weather is expected during tonight's game. Washington is coming off a high scoring win over UCLA, but had previously played four straight games with fewer than 50 combined points scored. I expect a low scoring affair here against the Ducks.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-04-17 |
LSU v. Alabama UNDER 51.5 | | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 127 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LSU@ALABAMA to go UNDER the total.
The Crimson Tide are favored by three touchdowns in this Saturday's home game versus LSU, but with both teams coming off a bye week, we could still see a battle. LSU doesn't have the offense to keep up with Alabama, but they might be able to hang around in a defensive struggle that has been so common in previous meetings between the two teams. Last year the Tide won by a score of 10-0 in Baton Rouge, and they didn't score a TD until late in the second half. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone under the total, and the Tigers failed to score 20 points in all seven of those games. The total for this year's game is higher than it was in each of the last three meetings. The Tigers have failed to reach the total in 10 of their last 11 when coming off a bye.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-04-17 |
Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State OVER 74 | | 62-52 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OKLA@OKST to go OVER the total. We know the Sooners rivalry with the Cowboys is commonly known as "Bedlam". Recent games between these two teams have certainly lived up to that moniker. The Cowboys are coming off a 50-39 road win over West Virginia, but I wasn't impressed with their defense in that game. The Mountaineers turned the ball over five times, and Will Grier threw four INTs. Despite those five turnovers, the Cowboys still gave up 39 points. The Sooners have also looked vulnerable on defense, and they gave up 35 points on the road at Kansas State two weeks ago. Both these teams are averaging over 40 points per game, but I expect the winner of this game to score 50+ points. The Cowboys have gone over the total in 14 of their last 20 conference games, and the over is 3-1-1 in their last five games against the Sooners. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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11-04-17 |
Clemson v. NC State UNDER 51 | | 38-31 |
Loss | -110 | 108 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEM@NCST to go UNDER the total. Clemson is still the team to beat in the ACC, but the Tigers offense has dropped off a lot since last season. Kelly Bryant has played well at times, but he's thrown for just 1582 yards with six TDs and four INTs, and he hasn't scored a rushing TD since winning 34-7 over Boston College on September 23. He was knocked out of the game against Wake Forest on October 7th, and since then Dabo Swinney seems to be reluctant to have him put his body on the line. NC State is still undefeated in conference play, and whoever wins this game will be the favorite to win the division. These two teams have gone under the total in three of the last four head to head meetings, and the Wolfpack has failed to reach the total in five straight overall. Last year the Tigers beat the Wolfpack by a score of 24-17 at home, and I expect a similar score here at NCState this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-31-17 |
Bowling Green v. Kent State UNDER 50.5 | | 44-16 |
Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BG@KENT to go UNDER the total.
The Golden Flashes host Bowling Green in a Tuesday night MAC Conference game, and both these teams have had their struggles on offense this season. The Falcons come in averaging just over 20 points per game, ranking 116th nationally in scoring. It doesn't get much worse than that... or does it? Kent State is averaging just over 11 points per game this season. The Golden Flashes have failed to score 20 points in six straight games, and they've scored three points or less in four of their last six games. The good news is that their defense hasn't been too bad, as they've allowed just 41 points in two home games against MAC opponents, going 1-1 in those games. These two teams have played three times since 2013, and not one of those three games saw a combined 50 points scored. We should expect another low scoring game here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-30-17 |
Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 39 | | 19-29 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DEN@KC to go OVER the total.
The Chiefs got off to a great start, winning their first six games of the season. Their success came thanks to a high powered offense, averaging almost 30 points per game. Their downfall though has been a defense that really hasn't been able to stop anybody. They have lost back to back games, and last week against the Raiders they gave up over 500 yards of total offense. The Broncos offense has been horrible the last three weeks, scoring a combined 26 points. This could be a get right game for the Denver offense. Trevor Siemian threw for 235 yards with four TDs and one INT in a home win over the Cowboys in Week 2, but he's thrown for just two TDs and five INTs since. The last time he faced this Chiefs defense, he threw for 368 yards and three TDs on 20-of-34 passing in a 30-27 overtime loss at home. These teams have gone over in each of the last four head to head meetings, and each of the last five meetings has seen at least 42 combined points. Kansas City's offensive line gets a boost with the return of starting center Mitch Morse who has missed the last two games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-29-17 |
Cowboys v. Redskins OVER 48.5 | Top | 33-19 |
Win | 100 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@WAS to go OVER the total.
The Cowboys come into this NFC East rivalry game with a 3-3 record, but those wins came against the Giants, Cardinals and winless 49ERS. They are coming off a 40-10 win at San Francisco, which on the surface of things seems like a positive result for their defense. The score doesn't tell the whole story though, as San Francisco had been moving the ball with ease, only to see promising drives end in turnovers. Rookie quarterback CJ Beathard threw for 235 yards on 22-of-38 passing, with no TDs or INTs. Kirk Cousins should be primed for a big game against this suspect Cowboys pass defense. Cousins threw for 303 yards and three TDs in a loss to the Eagles on Monday Night. Last year he threw for a season high 449 yards and three TDs in a 31-26 loss at Dallas, and he threw for 364 yards in a 27-23 home loss to the Cowboys. We saw at least 50 combined points in both those games, and I expect to see another high scoring game here in Washington.
Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-28-17 |
NC State v. Notre Dame UNDER 60.5 | | 14-35 |
Win | 100 | 110 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NCST@ND to go UNDER the total. After a blowout win over USC last Saturday, the Irish are now a huge favorite at home versus NC State. This is an obvious let down spot for Notre Dame, and this isn't a great matchup. The Irish are a one-dimensional team that leans heavily on the run, and the Wolfpack have one of the most experienced, and most dominant defensive lines in the country. They come in well rested off a bye week, riding a six game win streak. Their resume includes wins at Florida State, at home to Louisville and Syracuse. These teams played last season, and the Irish were completely shut down in a 10-3 loss. The Wolfpack held Notre Dame to just 113 total yards, and 59 rushing yards on 38 attempts. In this strength versus strength matchup, we should expect points to be hard to come by. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-28-17 |
Louisville v. Wake Forest UNDER 62 | | 32-42 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOU@WAKE to go UNDER the total.
Louisville was gifted a victory at Florida State last week. The Seminoles looked like they would score on a game winning drive in the final minutes, but freshman quarterback James Blackmon fumbled the ball. That allowed Louisville to drive down the field and score the game winning field goal. Louisville played far better defensively against the Seminoles, after giving up 45 points in a loss to Boston College a week earlier. When these teams played last year, Wake Forest led 12-10 in the fourth quarter, before the Cardinal scored 34 unanswered points. The Deacons get a chance to avenge that loss here at home, where their defense has held opponents to an average of just over 14 points per game. These two teams have failed to reach the total in each of the last four meetings, and the number in this game is far higher than it was in any of those previous contests. Wake Forest has gone under in 17 of it's last 22 games in the month of October.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-27-17 |
Florida State v. Boston College UNDER 47 | | 3-35 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on FSU@BC to go UNDER the total.
The Seminoles are coming off a terrible home loss to Louisville, putting them at 2-4 on the season. They had the ball late in the game, and appeared to be in position to run down the clock and kick the game winning field goal. Jimbo Fisher tried to get cute, calling a play that had failed to work on several occasions earlier in the game. The result was a fumble by quarterback James Blackman, leading to a Louisville field goal for the win. Since replacing the injured DeAndre Francios, he's thrown for 1047 yards with seven TDs and six INTs. Jimbo Fisher has been a little more conservative with the play calling on the road, and Blackman has attempted just 21 passes in each of his starts away from Tallahassee. The Seminoles won both of those games (26-19 at Wake Forest and 17-10 at Duke). The Eagles have scored 40+ points in back to back road wins at Virginia and Louisville, but their last two home games have each been low scoring. They beat Central Michigan 28-8 and lost 23-10 to Virginia Tech. Boston College has failed to score 20 points in each of it's last three games against Florida State, and two of those three games went under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-26-17 |
South Alabama v. Georgia State UNDER 49 | | 13-21 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on USA@GSU to go UNDER the total. The South Alabama Jaguars will play at Georgia State Thursday, in a battle between Sun Belt Conference rivals. Georgia State is coming off a 34-10 home loss to Troy, and I think we can expect another low scoring game here against the Jaguars. These teams haven't gone over the total in any of the last four head to head meetings, and last year the Jags won by a score of 13-10. The Jaguars are coming off a high scoring win over ULM, but they had failed to reach the total in five straight prior to that. Georgia State has gone under in five of it's last seven overall. Playing on a short week, we should see both teams have a conservative approach, looking to establish their run game. Georgia State has gone under in 12 of it's last 16 conference games, 10 of it's last 13 home games, and 20 of it's last 27 games overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-22-17 |
Saints v. Packers UNDER 48 | | 26-17 |
Win | 100 | 133 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NO@GB to go UNDER the total. The Packers rank 26th in the NFL in rushing offense, averaging just 88 yards per game on the ground. Any success they have had this season has come from the arm of Aaron Rodgers, who will be sidelined for the remainder of the season with a broken collarbone. Brett Hundley came in to throw for 157 yards with a TD and three INTs in last week's 23-10 loss at Minnesota. They tried to run the ball, but with little success, totaling 72 yards on 24 carries. The Saints come in as winners of three straight, and two of those three wins came on the road. New Orleans has been solid defensively during that span, shutting out the Dolphin in London, and holding the Panthers to 13 points in Carolina. The Packers have a whole host of injuries aside from Aaron Rodgers, with several key players in the secondary ailing, and an offensive line that has been banged up all season. It's going to be asking a lot of Brett Hundley to keep this game close. I expect the Saints to grind out a win here in a low scoring game at Lambeau. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-22-17 |
Cardinals v. Rams OVER 45 | | 0-33 |
Loss | -110 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARI@LAR to go OVER the total. The NFL's highest scoring offense will be on display in London this weekend, when the high flying Rams take on Arizona at Wembley. The Cardinals put on quite a show offensively in a 38-33 home win over Tampa last week. While scoring 38 points was impressive, giving up 33 to Tampa's offense led by backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick raises some eyebrows. Arizona ranks 25th in the league against the pass, and only Cleveland has allowed more passing TDs than the Cardinals. Jared Goff has had a pretty good start to the season, throwing for almost 1500 yards with eight TDs and just three INTs. He has struggled against elite defenses the last two weeks, but he should be primed for a big game here in London. Both these teams have well balanced offenses, and we should see plenty of scoring. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-21-17 |
Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 51.5 | | 27-3 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
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10-21-17 |
USC v. Notre Dame UNDER 60 | Top | 14-49 |
Loss | -115 | 126 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USC@ND to go under the total.
The USC Trojans face a daunting task on the road at Notre Dame this week. The winner of this game will emerge as a playoff contender, while the loser will be eliminated from contention. The Irish haven't allowed more than 20 points in any of their games this season, and that includes a 20-19 home loss to #3 ranked Georgia. Sam Darnold was the favorite to win the Heisman before the season started, but he's failed to live up to expectations. He's thrown 15 TD passes this season, but 13 of those came at home. On the road he's struggled, throwing for 387 yards with a pair of TDs and two INTs on 41-of-67 passing. Both of those games fell well short of the total, and the Trojans have gone under in four of their last five overall. The one game that did go over saw fewer than 60 total points (28-27 win over Utah last week). The Irish might find success pounding the rock against a soft USC defensive line, the Trojans have struggled to defend the run. The Irish have gone under in four straight in the month of October, and the under is 17-5-1 in their last 23 when coming off a bye week.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-21-17 |
Iowa v. Northwestern UNDER 48.5 | | 10-17 |
Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show |
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10-21-17 |
Louisville v. Florida State UNDER 59 | | 31-28 |
Push | 0 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOU@FSU to go UNDER the total.
The Florida State Seminoles are just 2-3 on the season, but those losses came to Alabama, Miami-Fl and N.C. State. All three of those games were close, and all three of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 25. The loss of their starting quarterback has certainly hurt the Seminoles, but they still have an elite defense and plenty of talent up and down the roster. Louisville hasn't been able to stop anybody on defense, and while they've scored their fair share of point, they were held to seven points in the first half at home versus Clemson, and the scored just 10 first half points in a loss at N.C. State. Both the Tigers and the Wolfpack were able to run up the score late in those games, but FSU is perhaps more likely to pound away with the run. Florida State has failed to reach the total in five straight overall, and the total for this game is almost 10 points higher than any of those previous games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-19-17 |
Memphis v. Houston UNDER 59 | | 42-38 |
Loss | -105 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on MEM@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Memphis Tigers have scored plenty of points this season, and they are coming off a 30-27 upset win over #25 ranked Navy last week. This could set them up for a bit of a let down on the road at Houston. The Cougars aren't the playoff contender that they were this time last year, mostly because of their struggles offensively. They remain solid on defense though, allowing just 21 points per game. They have failed to reach the total in seven straight, and nine of their last 10 overall. That includes home games against offensive juggernauts Texas Tech and SMU. While these two teams have scored a ton of points in recent head to head meetings, the under is 4-0 in the last four at Houston. The Cougars have failed to reach the total in six straight home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-15-17 |
Rams v. Jaguars OVER 42 | | 27-17 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LAR@JAC to go OVER the total. This game will feature two of the league's best running backs, and two defenses that really struggle against the run. The Jaguars are allowing an NFL worst 5.4 yards per carry, while the Rams have allowed a league high seven rushing TDs. LA ranks second in the NFL in scoring, averaging over 30 points per game. They haven't had as much success defensively, especially on the road. In two road games, LA has given up a total of 69 points. They beat the Cowboys despite surrendering 440 total yards. This will be just the second home game for the Jaguars, and they gave up 37 points in a Week 2 home loss to Tennessee in their home opener. These teams have gone over in three straight head to head meetings. The over is 6-1 in the Rams last seven overall. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-14-17 |
Purdue v. Wisconsin UNDER 51.5 | | 9-17 |
Win | 100 | 108 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PUR@WISC to go UNDER the total.
Wisconsin hasn't been tested, and the Badgers are a big favorite at home versus Purdue this weekend. The Boilermakers will face one of the nation's top defenses, as Wisconsin is allowing opponents to average less than 15 points per game. Purdue has averaged less than 10 points in it's last four games at Wisconsin dating back to 2009. The weather forecast calls for cold temperatures and rain in Madison Saturday afternoon. Purdue is quietly having a solid season so far, coming in with a 3-2 record and a defense that has allowed just over 20 points per game. The Badgers have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 games in the month of October, and a lot of that might have to do with the fall weather in Madison. I expect both teams to keep it conservative here, and we should see another low scoring game.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-14-17 |
Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 80 | | 35-46 |
Loss | -110 | 83 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TTU@WVU to go UNDER the total. The West Virginia Mountaineers aren't getting a lot of respect here at home versus Texas Tech. After all this is a team that they trounced by a score of 48-17 last year, and that game was at Lubbock. With the Red Raiders coming to Morgantown, I see no reason why the result will be any different. Sure Texas Tech has improved defensively, but they still lost 41-34 at home to Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Their offense doesn't appear to be quite as prolific as it was with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Nic Shimonek threw for 330 yards with 1 TD and an INT on 29-of-46 passing in the loss to the Cowboys. That was a home game, and now he's playing on the road against a far better defense in West Virginia. The Red Raiders lost 31-26 in their last game at Morgantown (back in 2015). Texas Tech might look like a sexy pick as a dog, but keep in mind that the Red Raiders have lost 16 straight versus Top 25 teams. The under is 12-2 in West Virginia's last 14 games in October.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-14-17 |
NC State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 54 | | 35-17 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NCST@PIT to go UNDER the total. Pittsburgh's Homecoming game against the Wolfpack looks tough. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Max Browne for the season, and backup Ben Dincucci hasn't looked great at all. The sophomore has completed just 55 percent of his passes for 422 yards with two TDs and two INTs. He's going up against one of the top defensive lines in the country, and adding insult to injury, their leading rusher is also suspended indefinitely. This looks like it could be a defensive battle, as the Wolfpack have gone under in eight straight against ACC teams, and Pittsburgh has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven overall. The Panthers have lost to Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Penn State, but none of those games saw enough combined points to reach the total listed for this week's game against the Wolfpack. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-11-17 |
South Alabama v. Troy UNDER 50 | | 19-8 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on USA@TROY to go UNDER the total. The Troy Trojans are coming off a shocking 24-21 upset win over LSU. They will have to try to avoid a let down here at home against a tough conference rival Wednesday. These teams have played some close games over the years, and four of their last five head to head meetings have failed to reach a combined 50 points. Both teams favor the ground game over an air attack, and we should see a gritty, low scoring battle in Alabama. Troy has a great defense, ranking 24th nationally allowing just 18.6 points per game. The under is 15-5-1 in the Trojans last 21 games overall. Even more telling is the fact that they have only gone over in one of their last 12 versus conference rivals. The Jaguars are trending in the same direction, coming off four straight games that failed to reach the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-07-17 |
Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 59 | | 45-42 |
Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on ARI@COL to go UNDER the total 1/H.
The Colorado Buffaloes went to the PAC12 Championship Game last seasons, but they are coming off back to back losses to UCLA and Washington. Unlike last year, they don't seem to have the offensive firepower to keep up with the top tier teams in the PAC12. They have averaged fewer than 20 points while losing two of three games in conference play. The same issue has plagued Arizona, as the Wildcats are coming off a 30-24 home loss to Utah. Their other loss came by a score of 19-16 at home versus Houston. Neither of these teams have been lighting it up with their passing game, and it's expected that this game will be a battle of ground and pound. With both teams focused on running the ball, the time will likely come off the clock before they can tally too many points. Colorado has gone under in seven of it's last eight overall, and 13 of it's last 16 in conference play.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-05-17 |
Louisville v. NC State UNDER 67 | | 25-39 |
Win | 100 | 38 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOU@NCSTATE to go UNDER the total. The Wolfpack were crushed in a 54-14 loss at Louisville last year, and they will have a chance to avenge that loss here at home on Thursday night. Louisville averaged over 60 points per game in their first four games of last season, but their offense hasn't been nearly as explosive so far this year. They have failed to score 30 points in their last three games at Raleigh. Two of those three games went under the total, and not one of those games saw more than a combined 55 points. The total for tonight's game has been bet up several points since opening at 63, and I think that's a pretty high number when you consider that NC. State is vastly improved on defense. The Wolfpack have gone under in seven straight versus conference rivals, and the under is 16-1-1 in their last 18 games on a Thursday. Last week NC State ran the ball for 256 yards and three TDs, and they should find plenty of room to run here in this game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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10-02-17 |
Redskins v. Chiefs UNDER 49.5 | | 20-29 |
Win | 100 | 153 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WAS@KC to go UNDER the total.
The Chiefs host the Redskins on Monday Night Football, and the bookmakers have set the total for this game right around the 50 point mark. I think that's a little optimistic considering that both these teams rank better than average defensively. The Chiefs rank 9th overall in the league allowing just 19 points per game. The Redskins are coming off a 27-10 home win over the Raiders, and they sacked Derek Carr four times in the victory. They also held Marshawn Lynch to just 18 yards on six carries. These two teams have gone over in four of the last six meetings, but the total in those games was never as high as 45. The Redskins have only scored a combined 16 points while losing their last two versus Kansas City, and both of those losses came at home. The Chiefs have a long history of dominant defensive play at home, and that's a big reason why they've gone under in 39 of their last 56 at Arrowhead. Captain Kirk is likely to be grounded here in Kansas City. Take Under. GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-01-17 |
Rams v. Cowboys OVER 46 | | 35-30 |
Win | 100 | 121 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LAR@DAL to go OVER the total. The Cowboys secondary was lit up by Carson Palmer on Monday night, and I think Dallas is looking very vulnerable here against a well rested Rams teams that has scored a ton of points. Jared Goff threw for 292 yards and three TDs on 22-of-28 passing in last Thursday's win over San Francisco. He's 11-for-11 with five TDs in the red zone. Dallas has it's swagger back on offense, after running for 99 yards and two TDs in the win over Arizona. Ezekiel Elliot may find plenty of room to run here against a Rams defense that currently ranks 28th in the league allowing 139 rushing yards per game. The Rams have given up a whopping six rushing TDs, more than any other team in the NFL. The last time these teams played was in 2014, and Dallas won by a score of 34-31. I expect another offensive slug-fest here this time around. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-17 |
Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 52 | Top | 31-17 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEM@VT to go UNDER the total. The Clemson Tigers are a heavy favorite on the road at Virginia Tech this week, and I expect this to be a low scoring battle between two solid defensive teams. Clemson's defense has been impressive, ranking 3rd nationally, allowing opponents to average just over nine points per game. Virginia Tech ranks 6th nationally, allowing just over 10 points per game. The Hokies have outscored opponents 65-0 in two home games so far. Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant hasn't played poorly, but his stats aren't all that impressive. He's thrown for 873 yards and has completed 68 percent of his passes, but has just two TDs and three picks in four games. Freshman Josh Jackson has put up far more impressive numbers for the Hokies, but hasn't yet faced an opponent like Clemson. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with six of the last eight meetings going under the total. The Hokies have only scored an average of 16.25 point in their last four games against Clemson, and I doubt they manage much better than that here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-30-17 |
Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 84.5 | | 41-34 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
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09-30-17 |
Arizona State v. Stanford OVER 63 | | 24-34 |
Loss | -110 | 84 h 16 m | Show |
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09-30-17 |
Syracuse v. NC State UNDER 65.5 | | 25-33 |
Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SYR@NCST to go UNDER the total. The Wolfpack might be in a let down spot here coming off a huge road win at Florida State. The bookmakers are expecting a shootout, setting the total in the mid sixties. While the Orange run a pass happy offense that often results in high scoring games, I don't think it's going to be very effective against this stout Wolfpack defensive line. NC State has gone under in six straight versus ACC teams, while the Orange have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven in conference play. Four of the last five head to head meetings have gone under, and the total for this game is far higher than it was in any of those five previous matchups. Syracuse scored just three first half points on the road at LSU last week. I think this number is simply way too high. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-17 |
Seahawks v. Titans UNDER 43.5 | | 27-33 |
Loss | -110 | 158 h 19 m | Show |
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09-24-17 |
Texans v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | | 33-36 |
Win | 100 | 155 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HOU@NE to go OVER the total. The Texans played at Foxboro in Week 3 last year, and lost by a score of 27-0. Jacoby Brissett got the start for New England, and he only attempted 19 passes in the game. LaGarrette Blount did all the heavy lifting, running for 105 yards and two TDs on 24 carries. Needless to say, I expect a very different result here this time around, with Tom Brady coming off one of his best ever games, and Blount no longer with the team. The Patriots defense hasn't looked capable of shutting out anybody, and because of their defensive shortcomings, Belichick knows he needs to pile on the points. Deshaun Watson looked great in a 13-9 win over Cincinnati last week, and I expect him to get better as the season progresses. He should be more than capable of leading a few scoring drives in garbage time if his team is trailing. The Patriots have gone over in six straight overall, and the over is 47-23 in their last 70 at Gillette Stadium. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-24-17 |
Saints v. Panthers UNDER 48 | | 34-13 |
Win | 100 | 136 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NO@CAR to go UNDER the total.
The Saints defense has been lit up in back to back weeks by Sam Bradford and a 40 year old Tom Brady. Surely Cam Newton will do the same? Not necessarily, as Carolina's offense isn't designed to be quite as pass heavy. Newton will also be without his most dangerous receiver (Greg Olsen). Cam has put up pedestrian numbers so far, throwing for just 399 yards, two TDs and an INT against two below average teams (San Francisco and Buffalo). The Panthers don't need to light up the scoreboard when their defense holds opponents to a combined six points in the first two weeks. The Panthers have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven overall, and three of their last four home games against the Saints. Going back even further, we can see that 11 of the last 14 times these teams have played in Charlotte, the total has gone under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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09-23-17 |
Notre Dame v. Michigan State UNDER 54 | Top | 38-18 |
Loss | -110 | 120 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ND@MSU to go UNDER the total. The Irish will be looking for revenge when they travel to East Lansing this Saturday. The Spartans won at South Bend last year by a score of 36-28. That was an uncharacteristically high scoring tilt between these two teams, going way over the listed total of 50. Four of the previous six games between these teams have gone under, and the total for this year's game is higher than it has been in any of the eight meetings over the last 10 years. Last season's Notre Dame squad was brutal defensively, but this year they've looked much better, allowing just over 18 points per game so far. They came up just short in a 20-19 home loss to Georgia, and I expect this game to yield a similar low score. Neither team does anything flashy on offense, and both teams are capable of grinding out wins with their defense. Sparty has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven non-conference games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-17 |
Michigan v. Purdue UNDER 52 | | 28-10 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICH@PUR to go UNDER the total. The Wolverines have been impressive on defense during their 3-0 start, but poor quarterback play and a below average offense has prevented them from blowing out inferior opponents. They have averaged just 33 points per game, despite playing two of three games at home against unranked opponents (Cincinnati and Air Force). Playing Purdue on the road could prove to be a challenge for Michigan, and some experts even have them on upset alert. Purdue is off to a great start, and their defense has been impressive. The Boilermakers pushed Louisville to the brink in a 35-28 Week 1 loss, and then went on to win back to back games by 20+ points. These teams have played three times since 2010, and two of those three games failed to reach the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-17 |
TCU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 71.5 | | 44-31 |
Loss | -110 | 61 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on TCU@OKST UNDER. There has been a lot of line movement in this game between BIG12 rivals TCU and Oklahoma State. The public is betting heavy on the Cowboys and the over, and I think this presents value with a contrarian play. TCU looks like a team that has improved a lot since losing by a score of 31-6 at home to the Cowboys last year. These teams have met every year since 2012, and four of those five games failed to reach the total. Not one of the last 10 meetings between these two teams has seen a combined 70 points. Mason Rudolph has been putting up video game numbers so far, but the last time he faced TCU he threw for just 207 yards and a TD on 17-of-34 passing. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-23-17 |
NC State v. Florida State UNDER 51 | | 27-21 |
Win | 100 | 99 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NCST@FSU to go UNDER the total.
The Wolfpack out-gained South Carolina 504-246 total yards in Week 1, but found a way to lose that game. They have been solid defending the run, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry and 1 TD in three games. Florida State will want to lean on it's running game here, as they will be starting a true freshman at quarterback. James Blackman will take over for the injured DeAndre Fancois. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in five of the last seven meetings. The Seminoles beat the Wolfpack last year by a score of 24-20 at Raleigh, and they won by a score of 34-17 at home in 2015. The Wolfpack have gone under in five straight against ACC teams, while FSU has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last 10 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-23-17 |
Texas Tech v. Houston UNDER 72 | | 27-24 |
Win | 100 | 98 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TTU@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They come into Houston ranked #1 in passing, averaging just shy of 400 yards per game. Houston though owns one of the top defenses in the country, allowing opponents to average less than 10 points per game so far. Texas Tech has a history of struggling against the tougher teams, and I don't think they can pile on the points here in Houston. The Cougars held the Wildcats to just 16 points in Arizona two weeks ago, and they have a history of shutting down high powered offenses. Last year they faced two ranked teams, and won both of those games. They held #3 ranked Oklahoma to just 23 points, and #5 ranked Louisville scored just 10 points in a loss at Houston. The Cougars have gone under in four straight at home, and seven of their last eight overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-22-17 |
Utah v. Arizona UNDER 60.5 | | 30-24 |
Win | 100 | 87 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Utes defeated Arizona at home by a score of 36-23 last season, and that game went over the total of 53. Three of the previous four meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and only one of the last 10 meetings have seen over 60 points scored. The Wildcats have proven that they can run up the score against inferior teams, scoring 60+ points in wins over Northern Arizona and UTEP. They didn't fare quite as well in a 19-16 home loss to Houston. The Utes are similar to Houston in that they should be suited to slow down Arizona's high powered running game. The under is 17-7-1 in Utah's last 25 games versus teams above .500. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
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09-18-17 |
Lions v. Giants UNDER 43.5 | | 24-10 |
Win | 100 | 141 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DET@NYG to go UNDER the total. The Giants have big problems on offense, and this is something that has carried over from last season. They ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing last season, and it doesn't look like anything has changed over the off-season. The offensive line hasn't been able to give Eli Manning any time to drop back and pass, and he's starting to show his age. He was sacked three times and threw and INT in Week 1, losing 19-3 to Dallas. The good news for Giants fans is that they still have one of the league's top pass defenses, and they hope to have Odell Beckham back for Monday night's game against the Lions. These teams have a history of playing close, low scoring games, and that is exactly what I am expecting tonight. The Lions have gone under in 20 of their last 27 road games, while the Giants have failed to reach the total in eight of their last 10 overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-17-17 |
49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | | 9-12 |
Win | 100 | 113 h 36 m | Show |
8* analysis before game time |
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09-16-17 |
Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 51 | Top | 23-13 |
Win | 100 | 106 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UK@SOCAR to go UNDER the total.
The Gamecocks have upset the apple cart so far this season, winning as an underdog against N.C. State and Missouri. Their defense has been impressive, holding Missouri to just 13 points last week. This will be a revenge game of sorts for South Carolina, hosting the Kentucky Wildcats who have defeated them in three straight seasons. Last year's game was a defensive battle, with Kentucky winning by a score of 17-10. In 2015 the Gamecocks lost at home by a score of 26-22 to Kentucky. To say that the Gamecocks have a history of playing low scoring games within their conference, would be an understatement of epic proportions. The under is 10-1 in South Carolina's last 11 games versus SEC teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-16-17 |
Kansas State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 49 | | 7-14 |
Win | 100 | 106 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KST@VAN to go UNDER the total. The Kansas State Wildcats won nine games last year, and beat Texas A&M by a score of 33-28 in the Texas Bowl. So far this season they look even better, which should be expected as they return most of last year's starters. Senior quarterback Jesse Ertz has thrown for over 500 yards and four TDs, and he's run for 100+ yards and a TD. Bill Snyder's squad plays on the road at Vanderbilt this week, and they are asked to cover a 3.5 point spread. The Commodores ranked 96th in the country in passing last year, averaging fewer than 200 yards per game. Junior quarterback Kyle Shurmur is back, and he's put up decent numbers against Middle Tennessee and Alabama State. I don't expect that to continue here against a stingy Wildcats defense. The Commodores have failed to cover in five straight home games versus teams with a winning record, while the Wildcats have covered in four of their last five non-conference games.The under is 20-7-2 in Vanderbilt's last 29 games overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-16-17 |
LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 52.5 | | 7-37 |
Win | 100 | 105 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LSU@MISST to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers have allowed just 10 points in their first two games of the season, including an impressive 27-0 win over BYU. They will play at Mississippi State this week, and the Bulldogs gave them a scare last year. LSU won, but didn't cover in a 23-20 home victory over Mississippi State in 2016. That game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate however, as the Bulldogs scored two TDs in the final five minutes. I expect to see a typically defensive battle here between two SEC rivals. The under is 15-5-1 in LSU's last 21 games versus SEC teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-11-17 |
Saints v. Vikings UNDER 48 | | 19-29 |
Push | 0 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This an 8* play on NO@MIN to go UNDER the total.
The Saints high flying offense comes into Minnesota in Week 1, and the bookmakers are expecting Drew Brees and company to pile on the points. The Vikings were the 3rd best defense in the league last season, and they only twice did they see more than 48 points scored in 16 games last season. The Vikings went under 48 total points in all 10 of their first 10 games of last season.
The Saints have struggled on defense since the "Bounty Gate" scandal. This is an area they have focused on in the off-season, and I expect to see significant improvements. They face a Vikings offense that ranked near the bottom of the league in scoring last year, and dead last in rushing.
I expect both teams to come out and establish the run, and that should lead to time winding off the clock. Drew Brees threw for 300 or more yards in 10 of 16 games last year. Six of those 300+ yard games were at home in the dome. He lost his #1 WR Brandin Cooks this off-season, but gained a superstar running back in Adrian Peterson.
This being a revenge spot for Peterson against his former team, expect him to get a healthy number of touches. The Vikings defense was far better against the pass than it was against the run last year, so don't expect Brees to be dropping back to pass on every down.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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09-10-17 |
Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 47.5 | | 3-19 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NYG@DAL to go UNDER the total. After beating the Cowboys twice last season, the Giants are getting a bunch of points here in this Week 1 matchup versus a division rival. Dallas is a team that comes into the season with high expectations, but I am a bit skeptical. Keep in mind that their offense relies on a pair of rookies with just one good season under their belt. It's been a troubled off-season for Ezekiel Elliot, and a likely suspension looms. Dak Prescott was great as a rookie, but then again, so was Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III and Vince Young. His numbers against the Giants were pretty bad. He completed 42-of-82 passes for 392 yards with a TD and two INTs in a pair of losses. Both games between these teams last year were low scoring, and with the status of OBJ in question, it seems like another low scoring game is inevitable. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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09-09-17 |
Georgia v. Notre Dame UNDER 55 | | 20-19 |
Win | 100 | 108 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UGA@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Bulldogs lost starting quarterback Jacob Eason early in their season opener versus Appalachian State. Freshman Jake Fromm stepped up and threw for 143 yards and a TD on 10-of-15 passing. Georgia was 8-5 overall last season, and three of their five losses came in games decided by three points or less. They will be getting a generous amount of points here on the road against unranked Notre Dame this week. The Irish only won four games last year, but they beat Temple by a whopping 33 points in their season opener. They did the bulk of their damage with the ground game, running for 422 yards and five TDs on 44 carries. Georgia's defense isn't going to allow the Irish to put up those kind of gaudy numbers, and I expect this to be a gritty defensive battle. The total for this game is lower than it has been in any of Georgia's last 10 games. Only two of those 10 contests saw more than 55 points scored. The Bulldogs have gone under in 13 of their last 16 versus teams with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-09-17 |
Western Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 50 | | 14-28 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WMU@MSU to go UNDER the total (1/H).
The Spartans won their season opener at home by a score of 35-10 versus Bowling Green. That victory might have been even more impressive than it looks. They gave up just three points in the first half, and held the Eagles to a total of 212 total yards. Bowling Green quarterback James Morgan completed just 10-of-31 passes for 145 yards and an INT. Michigan State hosts rivals Western Michigan in Week 2, and the Broncos are coming off an impressive game against USC. That game was tied heading into the 4th quarter, but not because Western Michigan had any success throwing the ball. Sophomore quarterback Jon Wassink threw for just 67 yards and an INT on 11-of-22 passing. The Broncos have gone under in four straight against BIG10 teams, while the Spartans have gone under in five of their last six non-conference games. The last time the Broncos played at East Lansing, they lost by a score of 26-13. I expect a similar result this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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08-31-17 |
TULSA v. OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 69 | Top | 24-59 |
Loss | -105 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TULSA@OKST to go UNDER the total.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane open the season as a double-digit dog on the road in Stillwater, and the bookmakers set a sky high total in the 70s for this game. Tulsa was an offensive juggernaut last year, but most of the offensive talent from that squad has moved on. In two games against ranked teams last season, Tulsa failed to impress. Neither of those games saw a total as high as we see here in this game, and against Ohio State they managed just three points. The Cowboys come into this season with high expectations, and their offense should be in good shape with Heisman hopeful Mason Rudolph at quarterback. If you include their bowl game, Oklahoma State played four non-conference games last season. Only one of those saw 70 points scored, and that was a 45-38 win over Pittsburgh. I expect Tulsa to really struggle on offense against an experienced Oklahoma State defense. While the Cowboys should get their fair share of points, it's likely that there could be a few hiccups before they start firing on all cylinders. This is evidenced by the fact that they've failed to reach the total in four of their last five games in August.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schuile |
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02-05-17 |
Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 59.5 | Top | 34-28 |
Loss | -130 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NE@ATL to go UNDER the total.
When the Falcons played the Packers in the NFC Championship game, we saw the highest total in the history of the NFL Playoffs. We saw a lot less scoring than expected in the first half of that game, but both teams exploded to score 41 combined points in the second half. Here is what I said prior to that game: "In order for both teams to score 30+ points, everything has to go right offensively. There's plenty that can go wrong. An injury to a key offensive player (heaven forbid one of the quarterbacks). We could see several drives cut short by turnovers (fumbles or INTs). Or one or both teams could be heavily penalized. Offensive holding penalties, offensive pass interference, unsportsmanlike conduct etc." The Patriots defense ranks 1st in the NFL in points allowed, so we shouldn't expect Atlanta to score at will the way they did against the Packers. While I expect a high scoring game, this number is so inflated, I believe there's a good chance that these teams come up just a little short of the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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01-07-17 |
Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43.5 | Top | 6-26 |
Loss | -108 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
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01-01-17 |
Packers v. Lions OVER 49.5 | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GB@DET to go OVER the total. The Lions went into Dallas last week, and got blown out by a team that didn't have anything to play for. They couldn't do anything right on defense, allowing Dak Prescott to throw for 212 yards and three TDs on 15-of-20 passing. The Cowboys also piled up 164 yards on the ground, and Ezekiel Elliot had a pair of rushing TDs. With Darius Slay sidelined by a hamstring injury last week, backup corner Johnson Bademosi wasn't able to do anything to stop Dez Bryant. Slay might be able to play this week, but he's unlikely to be at 100 percent. If he can't go, it's a nightmare matchup for Bademosi facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in three straight games, and comes into Detroit as winners of five straight. The Packers success on offense has made everybody forgot about how bad this team was in the first half of the season, and there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned about this defense. Last week they were lit up for 383 yards and three TDs by Sam Bradford. The week before that it was Chicago's backup Matt Barkley throwing for 362 yards and a pair of TDs. Both of these teams are banged up at the running back position, so it figures to be a game where we should see plenty of passing. Three of the last four games between these two teams have gone over the total, and Green Bay has gone over in five of it's last six versus NFC teams. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-31-16 |
Washington v. Alabama OVER 52.5 | Top | 7-24 |
Loss | -103 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WAS@BAMA to go OVER the total. The Crimson Tide will be a double digit favorite over Washington in the Peach Bowl, but the Huskies offense might give them some trouble. Alabama has only lost one game in the last two seasons, and that was a 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss last year. Chad Kelly lit them up for 341 passing yards and three TDs in the victory. The Rebels nearly did it again this season, as Kelly threw for a whopping 431 yards and three TDs in a 48-43 home loss. If there's a weakness in the Alabama defense, it's that they've failed to contain elite quarterbacks over the last two seasons. Kelly wasn't the only quarterback to have a big game against Alabama this season, Austin Allen threw for 400 yards and three TDs when Arkansas lost 49-30 at home to Alabama. Jake Browning was one of the nation's top quarterbacks this season, throwing for 3,280 yards with 42 TDs and just seven picks. Given almost a month to prepare for this game, these offensive coordinators should have plenty of tricks up their sleeves. Both these teams have trended toward high scoring games, with the Huskies going over in four of their last five non-conference games. The Tide have gone over nine of their last 11 bowl games, and the over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 neutral site games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-08-16 |
Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 45.5 | Top | 13-21 |
Loss | -107 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@KC to go OVER the total. The Raiders and the Chiefs will play at Arrowhead on Thursday, and the winner will be in the driver's seat in the AFC West. The Chiefs won 26-10 at Oakland earlier this season, but Oakland has since won six straight. The Raiders have scored 30 or more points in five of those six games, and Derek Carr has thrown 12 TD passes and just two picks during that span. The Chiefs have won six of seven since their win at Oakland, but it's worth having a closer look at their recent results. Their home victory over the Jaguars on November 7 was hardly impressive, as they were out-gained 449-231 in total yards, and just barely beat one of the league's worst teams. They followed that up with 20-17 win at Carolina, and they were also out-gained in that game (341-256), and the Panthers somehow managed to blow a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter. After losing at home to the Bucs, they got lucky in another miraculous comeback win at Denver. Then last week they won on a failed two-point conversion attempt returned for two points (29-28) at Atlanta. Their defense has been impressive at times, but the Chiefs rank 29th overall in total defense, and they have been burned for a total of 665 yards passing the last two weeks. The Raiders defense actually ranks worse, and Oakland has gone over the total in six straight, and four of their last five road games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
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12-04-16 |
Panthers v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 7-40 |
Win | 100 | 94 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CAR@SEA to go OVER the total.
The Panthers are in dead last in the NFC South, and they come into Seattle with one of the league's worst defenses. They are particularly vulnerable against the pass, ranking 27th in the NFL, allowing opponents to average 275 yards per game. Russell Wilson really struggled in Tampa last week, but he had had thrown for over 900 yards with six TDs and no INTs in his previous three games. He threw for 348 yards and three TDs in a win over the Patriots at New England just two weeks ago. These two teams played twice last year, and both those games went over the total. Wilson threw for 366 yards and three TDs on 31-of-48 passing in a 31-24 loss at Carolina in the playoffs. The Panthers have gone over in four of their last five road games, and five straight at Seattle. I think the Seahawks will be forced to throw the ball here in order to take advantage of the Panthers poor secondary, which should result in another high scoring game between these two teams.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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12-01-16 |
Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 17-15 |
Loss | -102 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@MIN to go OVER the total.
The Cowboys have won 10 in a row, but that streak can't last forever. Dallas will lose, it's just a matter of when. There will be plenty of situational handicappers picking Minnesota to record the upset here at home, but I just don't think the Vikes match up well versus Dallas. The Cowboys weakness is that they are vulnerable against the pass, but the Vikings rank 25th in the league in passing. Their running game is even worse, ranking dead last in the NFL rushing. They won't have any choice but to pass, and that could result short possessions, taking little time off the clock and handing the ball right back to the mighty Cowboy's offense. As good as the Vikings defense is, the Vikes have given up 20+ points in five of their last six games. During that span they've only held one team under 100 rushing yards, and that was Detroit. They'll have their hands full tonight against the best offensive line in football, and I can't see them stopping Dallas from piling up the yards and scoring plenty of points. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven straight games, and not even the Baltimore Ravens #1 ranked defense was able to stop them. I am expecting a shootout in Minny.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-26-16 |
Michigan State v. Penn State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 12-45 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MSU@PSU to go UNDER the total.
The Spartans are a lot better than their 3-8 record, and they proved that by nearly upsetting the Buckeyes at home last week. Four of their eight losses have come by four points or less, and they've played far better defensively in recent weeks. Running back L.J. Scott has carried the offense, running for 282 yards and two TDs on 39 carries the last two weeks. We could see both teams lean on the run this week when they play at Penn State. The weather forecast is calling for wind and freezing cold temperatures, similar to last week's game versus the Buckeyes. The Stakes couldn't be any higher for the Nittany Lions, who can clinch a spot in the BIG10 Championship game with a win, and a Michigan loss to Ohio State. Penn State's defense has surrendered just 14 points in it's last two home games, and they've held the Spartans to less than 20 points in three of the last five head to head meetings. Previous meetings have gone over the total at a rate of 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, but the number in this game is far higher than it was in any of the last seven meetings. I expect a close, low scoring game in bad weather this weekend.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-26-16 |
Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-30 |
Loss | -110 | 103 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MICH@OSU to go UNDER the total.
The Buckeyes just narrowly escaped with a 17-16 win on the road at East Lansing last week, and they will face another tough test at home versus Michigan in Week 13. There's a lot on the line here, as the loser is likely going to be eliminated from the playoffs. Michigan bounced back from a 14-13 loss at Iowa to beat Indiana by a score of 20-10 last week. The Wolverines offense is still sputtering though, and backup quarterback John O'korn three for just 59 yards on 7-of-16 passing in his first start since Wilton Speight went down with a broken collar bone. J.T. Barrett didn't have a great day either, throwing for just 86 yards and a TD on 10-of-22 passing. Both coaches will say that the weather was to blame for last week's poor performance on offense, but in a high stakes game in Columbus in late November, defense should reign supreme. These two teams rank 1st and 3rd respectively in total defense, and the weather man is calling for another cold and windy day in Ohio.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-24-16 |
LSU v. Texas A&M UNDER 48 | Top | 54-39 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LSU@TAM to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers are coming off an ugly 16-10 home loss to Florida, and they come into College Station asked to cover a big spread as a road favorite. That's going to be challenging without leading rusher Leonard Fournette, and I expect the Aggies to keep this game close. Texas A&M has lost two of four since Trevor Knight went down with a season ending injury, but those losses came in games decided by a combined total of eight points. Backup quarterback Jake Hunenak has thrown for 811 yards with six TDs and just two INTs on 59.8 percent passing so far, but he has his work cut out for him against this tough LSU secondary. The Tigers have won four straight in this series dating back to 2012, and all four of those games went under the total. Their two wins at College Station each came by less than seven points. LSU has played three games away from home, losing two of those three and scoring less than 20 points in each of those losses. Last week's home loss to Florida was particularly deflating, getting stuffed on the goal line twice at the end of the game. LSU has gone under in nine of it's last 10 games in the month of November.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-24-16 |
Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WAS@DAL to go OVER the total.
The Cowboys have now won nine straight, and they've been unstoppable on offense during that span. They rank 3rd in the league in scoring, averaging over 28 points per game. They've scored at least 27 points in six straight games, and that trend should continue here at home against the Redskins #22 ranked defense. They'll likely need to score plenty to beat the Redskins, who are one of the leagues highest scoring teams. Kirk Cousins ranks 3rd in the league in passing, and he should be primed to put up big numbers against an injury depleted Dallas secondary. Jordan Reed is a matchup nightmare, and the Washington TE caught five passes for 70 yards in a 27-23 home loss to Dallas earlier in the year. Cousins has been playing far better since that game, and he's got plenty of weapons with DeSean Jackson back and healthy, Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon. These two teams have gone over the total in three of the last four head to head meetings, and Washington has gone over in eight of it's last 10 overall.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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11-19-16 |
Oklahoma v. West Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 56-28 |
Loss | -115 | 83 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKLA@WVU to go UNDER the total.
The 8-1 Mountaineers aren't getting much respect from bookmakers this week, listed as a home underdog to the 8-2 Oklahoma Sooners. Everybody loves Oklahoma's offense, and we've seen quarterback Baker Mayfield put up some impressive numbers. He threw for 545 yards and seven TDs against Texas Tech, and he had big games against Texas, Iowa State, TCU and Baylor. None of those teams can play defense like West Virginia. The Mountaineers have shut down a few high powered offenses already this year, holding the likes of TCU, Texas Tech and Texas under 21 points. West Virginia might want to focus on running the ball here at home, especially after Skyler Howard was picked off three times last week against Texas. The weather forecast in Morgantown is calling for a 90% chance of rain, as well as high winds. The Sooners have failed to reach the total in five straight, while West Virginia has gone under in five of it's last six overall. This total appears to be a little inflated, especially given the bad weather.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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11-06-16 |
Broncos v. Raiders OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-30 |
Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DEN@OAK to go OVER the total.
The defending Super Bowl champs are tied with Oakland in the AFC West with both teams at 6-2 after eight games. The Raiders host Denver on Sunday night, and the total looks a little low considering how potent Oakland's offense has been. Derek Carr is having an MVP caliber season, throwing for 2,321 yards with 17 TDs and just three INTs so far. He threw for a whopping 513 yards and four TDs on 40-of-59 passing in a win over Tampa last week. Surely he will have a tougher time against Denver's defense, but I like his chances of putting enough points on the board to push this total over. While Oakland is a team that has a pass happy offense, the Broncos normally try to establish the run. They were a little more pass happy last week, with Trevor Siemian attempting 38 passes in comparison to just 25 running plays. Injuries in the secondary, and a depleted backfield for Denver should also contribute to a potential higher scoring game. The Raiders have been trending over at home, reaching the total in nine of their last 12 in Oakland.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-30-16 |
Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47 | Top | 20-30 |
Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total.
The Cardinals offense led the league in total yards last season, but Arizona has struggled to score in 2016. Carson Palmer threw for 342 yards on 29-of-49 passing in a 6-6 tie versus Seattle last week. He's been picked off five times, and has thrown just two TD passes in his last four starts. He's facing a Panthers secondary that has really struggled since Josh Norman left for Washington. Carolina couldn't stop Drew Brees in a 41-38 loss at New Orleans two weeks ago. Brees lit them up for 465 yards and four TDs. I would expect this defense to be better here at home coming off a bye week, and they did hold the Bucs to just 17 points in their last home game. Arizona has played very well defensively this season, ranking 5th in the NFL allowing just over 15 points per game. These two teams have gone over the total in three of four meetings since 2011, but the total for this Sunday's game is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. The Cardinals have gone under in 11 of their last 15 overall, and four straight on the road.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-29-16 |
Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 50.5 | Top | 34-10 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STAN@ARI to go UNDER the total.
Stanford has lost three of it's last four games, and has scored an average of just 11 points per game during that span. Ryan Burns is really struggling at quarterback for the Cardinal, and he's thrown five INTs and just one TD pass in his last three starts. Christian McCaffrey has been banged up, failing to run for 100 yards in each of his last three starts. He wasn't able to play in Stanford's 17-10 win at Notre Dame. The good news for the Cardinal is their defense has played well, holding Colorado to 10 points last week, and Notre Dame to 10 point the week earlier. Arizona has lost four straight, and it's offense only managed 14 points in a home loss to USC last week. Stanford's defense should make life difficult for the Wildcats, and I think we'll see another low scoring game here in Arizona. The Cardinal have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-27-16 |
Jaguars v. Titans OVER 43 | | 22-36 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on JAX@TEN to go OVER the total.
The Jags will visit the Titans Thursday night, and neither of these two teams have been able to stop anybody in recent weeks. The Titans have given up 60 points in their last two games (a home win over Cleveland and a loss at home last week versus the Colts). Quarterback Marcus Mariota has been putting up decent numbers after a slow start, he's thrown eight TD passes and just one pick in his last three starts. He's going up a Jacksonville defense that ranks 26th in the league allowing over 26 points per game. Last week the Jags limited Derek Carr to 200 yards and a TD on 23-of-37 passing, but they still gave up 33 points at home losing to the Raiders. When these two teams met in Tennessee last season, Blake Bortles threw for 322 yards and five TDs in a losing effort. The Titans have reached the total in six of their last seven home games, while the Jags have gone over in nine of their last 12 when coming off a loss.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-20-16 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | | 27-28 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 2-team (7.5 point) teaser with BYU+UNDER.
The BYU Cougars come into Boise State riding a three game winning streak, and their overall record of 4-3 is quite impressive when you look at their schedule. Losses to #12 ranked West Virginia and #18 ranked Utah came by a combined eight points, and they lost at home to UCLA by a score of 17-14. Their defense has allowed 21 points or less in five of seven games. The Broncos defense ranks 23rd nationally, allowing less than 20 points per game. Those numbers are little skewed though, considering their soft schedule.
Both teams have relied heavily on a power running game in recent weeks. Boise State running back Jeremy McNichols ran for 217 yards and a pair of TDs last week, carrying the ball a season high 40 times. Jamaal Williams ran for 286 yards and five TDs in BYU's win over Toledo a few weeks ago. I expect both teams to try to establish the run here on Thursday, and the result should be a close low scoring game. BYU has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in this series, and Boise State has failed to reach the total in nine of it's last 10 home games.
Take BYU+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-15-16 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 84 | | 48-17 |
Win | 100 | 111 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WVU@TTU to go UNDER the total.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an offensive juggernaut, but they could be slowed by the undefeated West Virginia Mountaineers this week. West Virginia held Kansas State to just 16 points last week, and the Mountaineers rank 15th nationally in passing defense. They've allowed just four passing TDs, while picking off opposing quarterbacks five times. That's not good news for the nation's leading passer Patrick Mahomes, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. He threw for at least 300 yards 10 times last season, but was held to a season low 196 yards with three TDs and one INT on 21-of-34 passing in a 31-26 loss to West Virginia. The total for this week's game is astronomically high, in fact it's far higher than it was in any of the previous four meetings. Only one of those four games went over the total, when Texas Tech won 37-27 at West Virginia in 2013. That still falls well short of the number these teams are being asked to reach here in this game. I expect the Mountaineers defense to make enough stops to keep this game from reaching this inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-08-16 |
Alabama v. Arkansas OVER 48.5 | Top | 49-30 |
Win | 100 | 78 h 8 m | Show |
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10-08-16 |
Auburn v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 38-14 |
Win | 100 | 71 h 5 m | Show |
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10-06-16 |
Cardinals v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-21 |
Loss | -110 | 54 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 2-team (7.5 point) tease W/49ers+Under.
San Francisco is coming off a home loss to Dallas on Sunday, and they only managed to accumulate 295 total yards in that game. Blaine Gabbert is putting up pedestrian numbers at quarterback, with as many picks (4) as touchdowns in the first four weeks. Even in a Week 1 win over the Rams, he threw for just 170 yards and a TD. The good news is that the defense has looked pretty solid, and they should be able to hang in there against a struggling Cardinals offense with backup quarterback Drew Stanton getting the start. Stanton was picked off twice, completing just 4-of-11 attempts for 37 yards after replacing the injured Carson Palmer in last week's loss to the Rams. He started eight games for the Cardinals two seasons ago, and won five of those starts. The Cardinals failed to score 20 points in six of those eight games though, and seven of those contests failed to reach the total. Three of the last four meetings in this series have failed to reach the total, and only one of those four games was decided by a double digit margin.
Take SF+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-02-16 |
Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@SF to go UNDER the total.
The 49ers defense pitched a shutout in a home win over the Rams in Week 1, but they were blown out on the road in each of their next two games. I expect a better showing from San Francisco here at home versus Dallas, and with both teams likely to lean on the run, it could be a low scoring battle. Ezekiel Elliot ran for 140 yards on 30 carries in a win over the Bears last week. Carlos Hyde had a big game for San Francisco, running for 103 yards and two TDs on 21 carries in the loss to Seattle. San Francisco's passing game has been futile, with Blaine Gabbert who threw for just 119 yards last week. The Cowboys will be without their top wide receiver as Dez Bryant is sidelined by an injury. San Francisco has gone under in seven straight home games versus teams above .500. The Cowboys have gone under in six of their last seven games played on grass.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-02-16 |
Raiders v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | Top | 28-27 |
Loss | -110 | 148 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@BAL to go UNDER the total.
The Raiders defense couldn't stop anybody in the first two weeks, but they are coming off a solid 17-10 road win at Tennessee. They limited Marcus Mariota to 214 yards with no TDs and two INTs on 17-of-33 passing. They will try to do it again on the road at Baltimore, and the Ravens offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. Baltimore ranks 24th in the NFL, averaging just 19 points per game. Last week Joe Flacco really struggled, throwing for 214 yards on 21-of-40 passing, with no TDs and a pair of INTs.The Ravens though have won three straight to start the season, behind the league's 4th ranked defense. The Ravens have failed to reach the total in five of their last six home games, and six of their last seven on field turf. Derek Carr had a career best 351 passing yards against this Baltimore secondary last year, but I don't like his chances of a repeat performance here on the road Sunday.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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10-02-16 |
Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 49.5 | Top | 27-30 |
Loss | -105 | 144 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@JAX to go UNDER the total.
The Colts defense got the job done at home versus San Diego last week, holding the Chargers to just one offensive touchdown. Andrew Luck threw for 331 yards with one TD and an INT in the 26-22 victory. Indianapolis will face the winless Jaguars in London, and this looks like a tough spot for a banged up Andrew Luck. The Jags defense was great last week, limiting Joe Flacco to 214 yards on 21-of-40 passing, with no TDs and a pair of INTs. They also did a good job defending the run, holding the Ravens to 84 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Blake Bortles made a ton of mistakes though, and that cost Jacksonville in a 19-17 loss. Bortles had one of his best games last season in a win over the Colts, throwing for 250 yards and three TDs. That game went over the total, but these teams have failed to reach the total in eight of the last 10 head to head meetings. The total here looks a little high, given both team's struggles on offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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10-01-16 |
Arizona v. UCLA UNDER 59 | Top | 24-45 |
Loss | -110 | 119 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARI@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The UCLA Bruins are coming off a tough home loss to Stanford, but once against their defense was extremely impressive. The Bruins made Christian McCaffrey look human, limiting him to 138 yards on 26 carries, keeping him out of the endzone. Stanford was held to just three field goals, before Ryan Burns completed a game winning drive with a TD pass to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with 24 seconds left in the game.
Previously, the Bruins held the Aggies to just 24 points in regulation in an overtime loss at College Station, and they held the BYU Cougars to just 14 points in a win in Provo. While the defense looks great, there isn't a lot to get excited about on offense. Josh Rosen looks nothing like the Heisman candidate he was supposed to be.
Arizona's defense has also been impressive, and these two teams have a history of playing low scoring games. Four of the last five meetings in California have failed to reach 50 points. The total for this Saturday's game is closer to 60. The Bruins have failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 14 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-25-16 |
Bears v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-31 |
Loss | -103 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHI@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Cowboys are a big favorite at home to the Bears on Sunday night, but I am still not convinced that rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot are going to live up to all the hype. The Cowboys are 1-1, and everyone is singing the praises of their new rookie quarterback. As solid as he's looked, he's yet to throw a TD pass. The good news is that he hasn't made many mistakes. If the Cowboys want to keep it that way, they will have to continue protecting him with a conservative game plan on offense. They don't need to come out passing, and settling for field goals is likely to be plenty good enough against these Bears. Chicago's offense is in rough shape, with Brian Hoyer stepping in at quarterback to replace Jay Cutler. Hoyer is a capable backup, but this is a tough situation, playing behind an offensive line that can't stop the pass rush. Chicago has not seen the total go over 45 points in seven straight games dating back to last December. The Cowboys have gone under in four of their last five versus an opponent with a losing record, and I expect to see a low scoring game here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-24-16 |
Nebraska v. Northwestern UNDER 48 | Top | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 47 m | Show |
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09-24-16 |
BYU v. West Virginia UNDER 51.5 | Top | 32-35 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
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09-24-16 |
Syracuse v. Connecticut UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
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09-23-16 |
USC v. Utah UNDER 47 | Top | 27-31 |
Loss | -107 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USC@UTAH to go UNDER the total. The Utah Utes are 3-0, but when you really examine those three victories, none of them are all that impressive. Despite the fact that they've played three unranked opponents, they've scored an average of just 26 points per game, ranking 90th nationally. The Trojans haven't looked great defensively, but keep in mind that they've played two defending conference champions (Alabama and Stanford). When matched against a lesser opponent, they didn't look too bad. USC held the Utah State Aggies to just seven total points, and 253 total yards in Week 2. Sam Darnold will step in at quarterback for the Trojans, but he faces a Utes defense that ranks top 10 nationally. Darnold was 5-of-7 for 45 yards with an INT against Stanford last week. Given the history between these two conference rivals, we should expect to see a defensive battle. The last time the Trojans played here they lost 24-21, and the under in 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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09-22-16 |
Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 | Top | 26-7 |
Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
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09-19-16 |
Eagles v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 29-14 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@CHI to go OVER the total.
Jay Cutler had the Bears up 14-10 at halftime in Houston in Week 1, but Chicago was shutout in the second half and went on to lose 23-14 to the Texans. The offensive line couldn't keep Houston's pass rushers off of Cutler, and he was sacked five times. Chicago's offense should have a more favorable matchup here at home against Philly. The Eagles are really thin in the secondary, and making matters worse, Leodis McKelvin will be out with a hamstring injury. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz had his way with the Browns in Week 1, throwing for 278 yards and a pair of TDs. Wentz has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but he might not be quite as successful here on the road against a solid Bears defense. The Bears have seen the total go over in nine of their last 13 games in the month of September, and the over is 4-1 in their last four games versus the Eagles.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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09-15-16 |
Jets v. Bills UNDER 40.5 | Top | 37-31 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play NYJ@BUF to go UNDER the total.
The Bills offense was putrid in Week 1, gaining just 160 total yards in a 13-7 loss to the Ravens. It doesn't figure to get any easier here at home versus the Jets just four days later. Their top receiver Sammy Watkins is banged up, still bothered by a foot injury that troubled him last year. The Jets defense didn't look too bad in a loss to Cincinnati on Sunday, holding the Bengals to a total of 57 yards on the ground, and sacking Andy Dalton seven times. Ryan Fitzpatrick had an average performance, throwing for 189 yards with two TDs and an INT on 19-of-35 passing. Fitzpatrick has a history of struggling against Rex Ryan's defense. Last year he was picked off three times while throwing for 181 yards on 16-of-37 passing in a 22-17 at Buffalo in last year's season finale. The Jets lost at home to the Bills earlier in the season, by the exact same score. These two teams have failed to reach the total in three straight meetings, and the under is 4-1 in the Jets last five trips to Buffalo.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
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09-12-16 |
Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 0-28 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA@SF to go UNDER the total.
The Niners host the Rams on Monday Night Football, and these two teams have a lot in common. They both finished with a losing record, missing the playoffs last year. They both have below average quarterbacks, and both teams like to focus on running the football. They've gone under in each of the last three head to head meetings, and the under is 4-1 in the Rams last five visits to San Francisco. The Niners have scored an average of less than 12 points in those three games, while the Rams were held to an average of just over 18 points per game. Case Keenum won three of his four starts at the end of last season, but he didn't put up eye popping numbers, with four TDs and one INT in those games. Three of those four games went under the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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09-10-16 |
Central Florida v. Michigan UNDER 55.5 | Top | 14-51 |
Loss | -110 | 94 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCF@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines took full advantage of a travel weary Hawaii team last Saturday, beating the Warriors by a score of 63-3. I expect them to face a slightly tougher challenge here at home against a UCF team that pitched a shutout in Week 1. The Knights were 0-12 last season, but I expect them to be far more competitive here in 2016. This program is only two years removed from a 9-4 season and an AAC Championship. As impressive as Michigan's offense looked last week, their passing game wasn't exactly what you would call explosive. Wilton Speight was picked off on his first pass attempt, and finished with 145 yards and three TDs on 10-of-13 passing. The Knights have played five straight non-conference games without going over the total, and the under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games during the month of September. Weather conditions in Ann Arbor are expected to be less than ideal, with rain and wind in the forecast.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
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09-03-16 |
Western Michigan v. Northwestern UNDER 52 | Top | 22-21 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WMU@NW
The Wildcats had one of the nation's top defenses last year, resulting in 12 of their 13 games combining for fewer that 52 points. They open the 2016 season at home versus Western Michigan, and the Broncos should be over-matched here. Western Michigan had success against opponents in the MAC last season, but didn't fare to well in non-conference games against Power Five teams. They scored an average of just 17.6 points per game in losses to Michigan State, Georgia State and Ohio State. Unlike the aforementioned teams, Northwestern doesn't have an explosive offense to run up the score. The Wildcats opened up last season with a 16-9 loss to Stanford, and they've gone under in nine straight games in the month of September. The under is 24-8 in the Wildcats last 32 home games, and Northwestern has failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
|
02-07-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 45.5 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 211 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Super Bowl 50. They say that defense wins championships, and that might be good news for Broncos fans. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is pretty impressive in it's own right. The Broncos own the leagues' top ranked defense, allowing just 18.5 points per game. Carolina isn't far off, allowing just 19.3 points per game. The Super Bowl will be played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers played eight games at Levi's Stadium this year, and not a single one of those saw more than 45 points scored. In fact all but one of their home games saw less than 40 points scored. The Broncos completely shut down New England's high octane offense in the AFC Championship game, picking off Tom Brady twice in a 20-28 victory. A week earlier they held the Steelers in check in a 23-16 victory. Denver has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six playoff games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
|
01-24-16 |
Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 15-49 |
Loss | -107 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total.
The Panthers opened up a 31-0 lead on Seattle in their win over the Seahawks in the divisional round. While you have to give them credit, it's also fair to point out that they were fortunate that the Seahawks were slipping all over the field, and Russel Wilson threw an interception returned for a touchdown on the opening drive. The Seahawks have already been in touch with the Cardinals, giving them a heads up regarding the proper equipment for such field conditions. I wouldn't expect Arizona to come in and make the same mistakes Seattle did last week.
As good as the Panthers were in the first half last week, they were held scoreless in the second half. The Cardinals defense held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 13 points, until Rodgers hit another miracle Hail Mary with no time on the clock, forcing overtime. Arizona's defense has been solid all year, and the Cardinals have allowed an average of just 11 points in their last three road games.
The Cardinals have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
|
01-17-16 |
Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 44 | Top | 24-31 |
Loss | -108 | 49 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SEA@CAR to go UNDER the total.
The Seahawks defense dominated in Minnesota last week, holding Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 23 carries. Teddy Bridgewater threw for just 146 yards on 17-of-24 passing, and the Vikings points were limited to three field goals. Offensively their performance wasn't as spectacular, with Russell Wilson throwing for just 142 yards with a TD and an INT on 13-of-26 passing.
The Panthers defense has been pretty impressive in it's own right, especially against the run. Carolina has allowed opponents to average just 88.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th in the NFL. The last time these teams met, Marshawn Lynch was held in check, rushing for just 54 yards and a TD on 17 carries. Seattle appeared to be in complete control of that game, leading by a score of 23-14 with five minutes to play in the fourth quarter.
The Panthers rallied to score two TDs in less than four minutes, and Cam Newton threw the game winning TD pass with 32 seconds left on the clock. Since then this Seattle defense has been far better, and according to Michael Bennett it may be addition by subtraction. "Losing Cary Williams and adding J. Lane and D. Shead in the game has really turned our season around a lot," said Bennett.
Seattle has won three straight at Carolina, and all three of those games saw less than 30 points scored.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
|
01-11-16 |
Alabama v. Clemson OVER 50.5 | Top | 45-40 |
Win | 100 | 77 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEM@BAMA to go OVER the total.
I watched Alabama shutout the Spartans, but I think their defense is getting far too much credit for that performance. They face an entirely different monster here in the championship game, facing a Clemson team with a full bag of tricks on offense. DeSean Watson threw for 3,699 yards and 31 TDs this season, and he ran for over 1000 yards with a dozen rushing touchdowns. They have a talented running back in Wayne Gallman, who ran for 150 yards and a pair of TDs against Oklahoma. The Tigers defense though has given up plenty of points lately. Clemson gave up an average of more than 27 points in it's final four games of the regular season, and they gave up 37 points in a win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship game. While Derrick Henry gets all the press, Atlanta's underrated quarterback has done most of the damage in recent games. He completed 25-of-30 passes for 286 yards and two TDs in the win over Michigan State. He's thrown seven TD passes and no picks over his last four starts. I think we'll see both teams score their fair share of points tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
|
01-01-16 |
Florida v. Michigan OVER 39 | | 7-41 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICH@FLA to go OVER the total.
The Florida Gators fell apart at the end of the season, just squeaking by FAU, and then losing 27-2 at home to Florida State. They needed overtime to get past Florida Atlantic, and their offense looked just brutal in that game. Treon Harris threw for 134 yards on 19-of-38 passing, failing to get into the endzone. He's facing a daunting task here in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, going up against an elite Michigan Defense.
The Wolverines looked like a playoff team until a fumbled punt was returned for a TD on the final play of a 27-23 home loss to the Spartans. They bounced right back winning four straight before getting crushed by the Buckeyes in their season finale. Senior quarterback Jake Ruddock really came on at the end of the season, passing for an average of 324 yards over his last four games. He threw 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in those games.
Michigan has plenty of weapons on offense, and I think we'll see the Wolverines find the endzone plenty today. So far this bowl season, we've seen a lot more offense than defense, even when teams with good defenses have played. Florida has a lot of talent on it's defense, but I wouldn't expect it to be at it's best here today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
