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Jesse Schule Football Totals Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-31-14	SMU v. Baylor UNDER 75	Top	0-45	Win	100	15 h 29 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SMU@BAY to go UNDER the total. The Baylor Bears owned one of the most prolific offenses in college football in 2013, and bettors are expecting them to be pick up right where they left off. Head coach Art Briles is wise in his years though, and he warns: "We know we're really going to have to be at our best, because this is 2014. All that stuff that happened last year, that's gone. It's gone," The Bears opened up last season with a 69-3 win over Wofford, and averaged over 70 points through their first four games. It might be a tough ask though to expect them to hit the ground running as they did a year ago. First of all, they aren't going to catch anybody by surprise. Every coach in the country has been watching film, trying to scheme a game plan that will at least slow this high octane offense. We saw a few teams succeed near the end of 2013, as the Bears averaged fewer than 30 points in their final three games of the regular season, and were spanked by UCF in the Fiesta Bowl. Those same Knights played the Mustangs in their final game of the regular season, sneaking away with a 17-13 win. That was one of two games that SMU played against ranked opponents, the other a 42-13 loss to Texas A&M. The Mustangs greatly improved on defense near the end of last year, surrendering more than 28 points only once in their final five games, and covering the spread four times in that span. Public money has been pouring in on Baylor and the over all week, driving this number even higher as the game approaches. I suggest sitting back and waiting to see how high the number will go, and taking a value bet on the under just before kickoff. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
08-31-14	Utah State v. Tennessee OVER 51	Top	7-38	Loss	-110	15 h 59 m	Show
This is a 10* play on USU@TENN to go OVER the total. The Vols will open the season against a very tough Utah State team, and they have to hope that an entirely new offensive line can get the job done. The good news for Tennessee is that they enjoy a significant size advantage with wide receiversMarquez North is 6'4", Jason Croom is 6'5". Josh Malone is 6'3", and Von Pearson 6'3". They will face an undersized Aggies secondary, and that could result in some big plays for the Vols. Justin Worley is back at quarterback, and while he didn't impress last year, according to Tennessee coaching staff, he's been great in camp: "Well, I do believe that. Justin Worley has had a tremendous, tremendous offseason. [He] followed that up with a productive spring and then a very, very good and very solid training camp…I'm very encouraged by what I've seen with Justin and very confident in his ability to lead this football team." said Butch Jones. The Aggies get dual threat QB Chuckie Keeton back, and he's got enough bags of tricks to cause fits for the Tennessee defense. Tennessee has seen the total go over in 13 of it's last 17 non conference games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
08-30-14	Oklahoma State v. Florida State UNDER 63	Top	31-37	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
This is 10* play on FSU@OKST to go UNDER the total. Oklahoma State won 10 games last year, and many of those came against tough opposition in the Big 12 Conference. Their most impressive victory came against #3 ranked Baylor, in a 49-17 thrashing at home. None of their three losses came by more than 10 points, yet they are getting almost double that number in their season opener against Florida State. The Seminoles are the defending national champions, but let's not forget that they needed to come from behind to beat Auburn by a score of 34-31 in the Championship Game in January. They lost five key starters on offense to the NFL draft, but Jameis Winston is back, and Florida State is still loaded. Winston put up video game type numbers in 2013, and many people expect him to match those stats this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Famous Jameis take a giant step back this year though. He seems to have a knack for finding trouble, and would appear to be a prime candidate for letting success go to his head. With a less experienced receiving corps, it would also be no surprise to see Jumbo Fisher lean more on the run in this first game. At the end of the day, the total looks a little high given the history with the Seminoles having played six straight unders in neutral site games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
08-30-14	Clemson v. Georgia OVER 54	Top	21-45	Win	100	13 h 16 m	Show
This is a 10* play CLEM@UGA to go OVER the total. The Bulldogs lost at Clemson last year by a score of 38-35, and they appear to have an excellent chance at executing a little revenge at home in their season opener Saturday. The Tigers will have to replace QB Tajh Boyd and wideout Sammy Watkins. The Bulldogs went on to defy all odds by overcoming injuries to several key starters and still managing to win eight games last year. With Todd Gurley healthy to start the season, this Georgia offense is likely to put up a lot of points. They scored an average 43 points in their home games last year, and all but one of those games saw the total go over 60. I think Clemson is still going to be good this year, but this is a tough match-up in Week 1. They needed a lot of luck to only barely beat these Bulldogs at home last year, and now breaking in a new quarterback on the road is a tough ask. Georgia QB Hunter Mason finished with 968 yards and five touchdowns while completing 60.9 percent of his passes in four games last season, so there is every reason to be optimistic as he takes over for Aaron Murray. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
08-30-14	Ohio State v. Navy OVER 53	Top	34-17	Loss	-110	5 h 29 m	Show
This is a 10* play on OSU@NAVY to go OVER the total (10*) By now we've all heard the news that Braxton Miller will miss the 2014 season for Ohio State, and this has caused oddsmakers to make some serious adjustments. The Buckeyes will bring in a new quarterback, but we've already seen examples of how that isn't always a bad thing. Look at what Kenny Hill was able to do for the Aggies in Week 1 (at my expense). It's not like we haven't seen the Buckeyes play without Miller, as his backup Kenny Guitton saw plenty of action early last season, and it didn't slow the offense at all. In fact in the two games where Miller didn't play at all, they tallied an incredible 128 points. Ohio State will also have it's hands full trying to contain Navy QB Keenan Reynolds, who led the country with 31 rushing TDs last year, setting a new record at his position. Ohio State has trended toward the over at a rate of 5-1 in it's last six games on field turf, and yet we've seen the number for this game drop roughly 10 points since it opened. I consider that to be an overreaction. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
08-28-14	Ole Miss v. Boise State OVER 52.5	Top	35-13	Loss	-113	18 h 33 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MISS@BSU to go OVER the total. The Rebels boasted one of the SEC's top passing offenses in 2013, and with quarterback Bo Wallace back under center, they could be even better this year. Wallace threw for over 3000 yards and 18 TDs last season, not bad when you consider he was playing in the SEC against the likes of Alabama, LSU and Auburn. The Broncos were a defensive powerhouse during head coach Chris Peterson's tenure, but they dropped off significantly last year. They allowed an average of 25 points per game, despite a soft schedule that saw them face no ranked opponents. They were hammered by Washington in their opening game of the season, losing 38-6. The good news for the Broncos is that their offense made strides when QB Grant Hedrick took over for Joe Southwick. His 15 TDs and just 5 INTs were pretty impressive when you consider he only started for half the season. The bad news is that their defense is still a question mark, and with Peterson now in Washington, Bryan Harsin will have his hands full. The Rebels have seen the total go over in nine of their last 12 games played on field turf, and I'm expecting Wallace to have a big game against this inferior opponent. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
08-28-14	Texas A&M v. South Carolina UNDER 58	Top	52-28	Loss	-110	55 h 9 m	Show
This is a 10* play on TAM@SOCAR to go UNDER the total. The question everyone's asking is how will the Gamecocks replace Jadeveon Clowney, but perhaps the biggest concern for Spurrier's squad is whether or not QB Dylan Thompson can step up in place of Connor Shaw. Thompson was inconsistent at best last season, throwing for 783 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs. South Carolina opened last season with a 27-10 win over the North Carolina Tar Heels, continuing a trend of low scoring games in their season opener. The Gamecocks have seen the total go under in each of their last four games in the month of August. Both teams will be introducing inexperienced quarterbacks on offense, so a conservative playbook wouldn't be a surprise. The Aggies offense will have a new look with Kenny Hill taking over for Johnny Manziel. "Don't expect the same, "Johnny Dollar" flash from the Aggies' latest quarterback." Steve Spurrier predicts that both teams might be just trying to find their identity in Week 1: "They are probably a little bit like us that they haven't had a bunch of superstars to talk about this preseason," said Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks' 10th-year coach. "Their players are anxious to earn their way, just like our guys." The opening total was already too high in my opinion, and money is driving it even higher prior to game time. The Gamecocks have played four straight unders versus SEC teams, while the Aggies have seen the total go under in five of their last seven road games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
02-02-14	Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos UNDER 48	Top	43-8	Loss	-110	293 h 22 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SEA@DEN to go UNDER the total. One week before Super Bowl XLVIII, the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils played an outdoor game at Yankees Stadium. Here is what Marty Brodeur had to say about the weather conditions: "When you went on it was worse and worse. It was tough," Brodeur said. "It was so cold out there." The Weather reports vary from day to day, and while some are optimistic that it won't be as bad as many had feared, it seems clear that conditions will be less than ideal. The game has been hyped as the Bronco's and their high flyin' offense, versus Seattle's #1 ranked defense. I think that Denver isn't getting enough respect for their own solid play defensively. The Broncos have been particularly tough against the run, limiting San Diego and New England to a combined 129 yards. Denver has now played five straight low scoring games, with the total falling below the number. Offensively, we've seen Denver leaning on it's power running game, with long, clock killing drives. In fact in second quarter of the AFC Championship Game, we saw the Broncos set a record for their longest drive of the season, chewing up roughly seven minutes off the clock. In the third quarter they broke that record with another drive of more than seven minutes. Seattle's defense is likely going to prove to be a little tougher than San Diego and New England, so we could see Denver's punter get a little more time in the spotlight. The Seahawks have been very successful handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch, who has 249 yards and three touchdowns in the post-season so far. They should continue to feed the beast. Both teams should burn a lot of time off the clock with each possession, and I'm expecting this to be a low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
01-19-14	New England Patriots v. Denver Broncos UNDER 55	Top	16-26	Win	100	157 h 41 m	Show
This is a 10* play on NE@DEN to go UNDER the total. Denver's win versus San Diego last weekend avenged their only home loss this season. They didn't exactly light up the scoreboard as we have seen them do so often this season, but perhaps the most impressive statistic is that the Broncos punter never stepped on the field. Their offense steadily engineered long clock killing drives, with a power running game featuring Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball. When called upon, Peyton was razor sharp. The Patriots have their own power running game, and LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley combined to score six rushing touchdowns against the Colts. Running on the Broncos figures to be a little tougher though, as Denver's defense has been far stronger against the run. San Diego gained only 65 yards on the ground last week, and that marked the third straight game that Denver held it's opponent to fewer than 100 yards rushing. They have also seen the total fall below the number in each of their last four games. A lot has been made of the matchup between Brady and Manning, and the fact that Brady has won 10-of-14 previous meetings. I don't put much stock in that stat, this is a new game, and Peyton has the advantage of playing at home in Denver. The Pats defense ranks last in the league against the run, allowing an average of 134 rushing yards per game. They aren't that much better against the pass, and Andrew Luck threw for 331 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. Denver terrorized Phillip Rivers last week, sacking him four times, and forcing him to get rid of the ball early on numerous occasions. Brady could be spending a lot of time pulling his butt off the turf, as New England's pass protection leaves a lot to be desired. Brady was sacked exactly twice as many times as Manning during the season (40). Belichick and Brady have defied all odds by getting this injury riddled team, with a depleted receiving corps all the way to the AFC Championship game, but I expect the injuries to take their toll here in Denver, and the Pats should come up short. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
01-12-14	San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos UNDER 56	Top	17-24	Win	100	155 h 42 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SD@DEN to go UNDER the total. The San Diego Chargers are the "Giant Killers", as they have now beat the Chiefs in Kansas City, the Eagles in Philly, The Bengals in Cincy.. and of course they beat the Broncos in Denver just last month. That was then, and this is now. If you look at their win in Cincinnati, the Chargers went into that game with a very conservative game plan. It was more of a case of the Bengals beating themselves, with four turnovers. The Chargers played well defensively, terrorizing Andy Dalton, but come on .. he's no Peyton Manning. Last week's battle with the Bengals took it's toll on San Diego, as Ryan Mathews left the game with an ankle injury, and they also lost their starting center. Remember that Denver actually did beat the Chargers in San Diego back in back in November by a score of 28-20. This Broncos defense has been good against the run all year long, and coming off a week of rest should benefit the Broncos tremendously. Now that you mention it, the last time the Broncos played after a bye week was their victory in San Diego earlier in the year. These teams failed to reach 50 points in both previous meetings, yet the total for Sunday's game is in the mid 50s. Denver has played three straight unders, while the Chargers haven't seen a total reach 50 in any of their last six games. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
01-11-14	Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 53.5	Top	22-43	Loss	-110	104 h 16 m	Show
This is a 10* play on IND@NE to go UNDER the total. The Colts did it again last week, coming back from another huge deficit (28 points), this time stunning the Chiefs. We've seen this before from Indianapolis, with big comeback wins in Houston and Tennessee previously this season. While Andrew Luck and the Colts have proved that they have what it takes to engineer a comeback, perhaps more telling is that they have so frequently found themselves trailing at halftime. This defense has struggled, and hasn't had much success stopping the run, allowing opponents an average of over 125 yards rushing per game (26th in the NFL). With weather in New England expected to be a factor (calling for rain and wind), this game could turn into a war of attrition. The Colts simply do not possess the defense or the running game to compete in such a contest. New England was 8-0 at home this year, and I just don't see Andrew Luck getting the better of Tom Brady here at Foxboro in the playoffs. Bill Belichick has had two weeks to prepare a game plan for the Colts, and if you ask me, he's still the grandmaster of NFL coaches. You have to give Belichick and Brady a lot of credit for holding this team together during a trying season, and you can rest assured that they will have a solid strategy for defeating the Colts. The Colts have seen the total go under in each of their last six playoff games on the road, and I expect to see that trend continue Sunday. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
01-11-14	New Orleans Saints v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 48	Top	15-23	Win	100	129 h 10 m	Show
This is a 10* play on NO@SEA to go UNDER the total. The Saints were able to sneak away with a victory on a late field goal in Philadelphia, but they are in for a far tougher test against Seattle and their legendary 12th man. Seattle's #1 ranked pass defense is going to be a tough nut to crack for Drew Brees and company. After winning 14 in a row at home at home over the past two seasons, the Seahawks lost to Arizona just two weeks ago. Carson Palmer made the big play to put the Cards ahead late, but overall he was terrorized by the Seahawk secondary, completing just 13-of-25 for 178 yards, with one TD and four INTs. The Saints lost in Seattle in December by a score of 34-7, and they lost previously two years earlier, also in Seattle. The Saints proved they can win on the road last week, but this is still a dome team that isn't the same outside the Superdome. In the last meeting, Seattle held Brees to just 147 yards and a touchdown, and given two weeks to rest up and prepare, expect to see a very similar storyline here in this playoff game. Take the UNDER GL, Jesse Schule
01-06-14	Auburn v. Florida State UNDER 68	Top	31-34	Win	100	66 h 25 m	Show
This is a 10* play on FSU@AUB to go UNDER the total. Last year I played the over in the first half of the BCS game between Alabama and Notre Dame. I had this to say: "With the #1 & #2 defenses facing off against each other, this is expected to be a low scoring game with the total hovering around 40. Alabama has only played one game all season with fewer than 40 points scored, and that was a 35-0 shutout of Western Kentucky. I think it's a little naive to think the Notre Dame's defense is going to stop Alabama from scoring, keep in mind this is the same team that piled on 41 points against Michigan in their season opener, and the fewest points they scored all year was a total of 21, in a victory over LSU in the swamp." I will use similar logic here this time around, only this time it is a play on two high scoring offenses, that are being asked to reach an astronomical total. The public loves betting overs, and it's tough to blame them, as it is exciting watching teams put points on the board. Let's not forget that FSU actually has more impressive stats defensively than they do offensively. The Auburn offense relies heavily on a running game that will be up against the Noles defense that allowed an average of just 3.1 yards per carry this season. While FSU scored a lot of points, they were not quite as prolific when up against quality opponents like Florida, Miami and Duke, as none of those games combined for 60 points. We saw the total open at a very high number, in the mid 60s, an public money has driven that up 3-4 points. This creates quite some value on a play against the money. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
01-05-14	San Francisco 49ers v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 46	Top	23-20	Win	100	14 h 19 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SF@GB to go UNDER the total. The are saying it could be the coldest game in the history of the NFL, but if you thought that favored the home team, you could be interested to learn that the Packers have lost more home playoff games than they have won the past decade. While the weather may not help the Packers, it could prevent both these teams from having big days offensively Aaron Rodgers made the big play when he needed to last week, but that was against a Bears team that is terrible against the pass. His numbers were not a all impressive in his first game back, and he was picked off twice in the first half. The cold weather isn't likely going to help him against a stout 49ers defense, that has allowed opponents to average just 220 yards passing per game. A strong defense and a potent running game is the recipe for success in cold weather, and if these teams are forced to lean on their running games, we should see a low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
12-31-13	Mississippi State v. Rice UNDER 51	Top	44-7	Push	0	15 h 1 m	Show
10*
12-28-13	Cincinnati v. North Carolina UNDER 61.5	Top	17-39	Win	100	1 h 57 m	Show
This is a 10* play on CIN@UNC to go UNDER the total. I bet on the Bearcats in the Keg of Nails game versus Louisville, and it turned out to be an epic bad beat. Cincinnati blew a golden opportunity in the fourth quarter to win the game outright as a home underdog, and went on to lose by seven points in overtime, when a three point loss would have still covered. The Cardinals are a quality football team though, and Teddy Bridgewater is one of the nation's best quarterbacks. Cincy will play North Carolina in the Belk Bowl, and the Tar Heels will be without their starting quarterback Bryn Renner. Marquise Williams has been impressive since taking over for the injured Renner, throwing for more than 1500 yards and 14 TDs in eight appearances. He struggled in the season finale versus Duke though, completing 17-of-36 attempts for 223 yards with a TD and a pair of INTs. He's facing a tough Cincy defense that ranks 12th in the nation, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. Brandon Kay had an impressive season for the Bearcats, but he was playing through nagging ailments in his final few appearances of the season. The three weeks off should be a huge benefit to the Cincinnati quarterback. North Carolina will not have their offensive coordinator calling the plays on offense in the Belk Bowl, as Blake Anderson has moved on to coach Arkansas State. They might struggle to put points on the board versus this stingy Cincy defense. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
12-27-13	Washington v. BYU UNDER 61.5	Top	31-16	Win	100	23 h 58 m	Show
10*
12-26-13	Utah State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 58.5	Top	21-14	Win	100	46 h 55 m	Show
This is a 10* play on NIU@USU to go UNDER the total. The Aggies came up short in their season finale against Fresno State, losing by a score of 24-17. They did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low points total, which is a fairly impressive result against the nation's #1 passing offense. Utah State will face another high scoring team in the Poinsettia Bowl, when they take on Northern Illinois. The Huskies were blown out in the Mac Championship Game, losing 47-27. The Huskies won their first 12 games of the season, and quarterback Jordan Lynch put up some pretty impressive numbers during that span. For the most part, those wins came against the minnows in the MAC, and when confronted with a solid defensive team like Bowling Green, Lynch and the Huskies failed to rise to the occasion. The Aggies aren't that much different than the Falcons, another team that relies heavily on a Top 10 defense that has allowed an average of just 17.3 points per game. Utah State won five straight before losing to Fresno State, and they haven't seen the total go higher than 57 in any of their past 10 games. The Aggies picked off Derek Carr twice in their last game, and Jordan Lynch threw a pair of interceptions against Bowling Green. I am expecting the Aggies to grind out a win here in another low scoring game, against an overrated Huskies team. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
12-22-13	Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers OVER 49.5	Top	13-26	Loss	-105	152 h 22 m	Show
This is a 10* play on OAK@SD to go OVER the total. The Raiders were handed a fourth consecutive loss at home against Kansas City last Sunday, and once again their defense was victimized by another record setting performance. Earlier this season, Nick Foles tied an NFL record throwing seven touchdown passes in a 49-20 blowout win over the Raiders in Oakland. Last week it was Jamaal Charles, who caught four touchdown passes, and ran in another. The Raiders will limp into San Diego to take on the Chargers, who are in desperate need of a home win in order to stay alive in the race for an AFC wild card spot. Phillip Rivers has a 9-1 touchdown to interception ratio in his last four starts, and he should be looking at a big day against an Oakland secondary that ranks 23rd in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 250 yards per game. Rivers has had a breakout year, after slipping into mediocrity the past few seasons in San Diego. He's completing a career high 69% of his pass attempts, and he's thrown for 28 touchdowns, just six short of his career high 34 in 2008. There's every reason to expect the Raiders to be on the wrong side of another blowout, against a motivated opponent on the road. Take the Over. GL, Jesse Schule
12-16-13	Baltimore Ravens v. Detroit Lions OVER 50	Top	18-16	Loss	-105	14 h 22 m	Show
This is a 10* play on BAL@DET to go OVER the total (1st half) The Lions jumped out to an early 14-0 lead last week in Philadelphia, but they would end up losing in the snow to the Eagles by a score of 34-20. They are back in the dome this week, hosting the Ravens, who have really struggled on the road. Baltimore is just 1-5 away from home this season, and the Ravens have lost three straight at Chicago, Cleveland and Pittsburgh. Joe Flacco has thrown just one more touchdown than he has interceptions this season, and 11 of his 17 picks have come on the road, where he has just eight touchdown passes. The Ravens defense hasn't looked very impressive, and since losing to Denver they haven't really faced a top tier offensive team. Remember Peyton Manning threw for 462 yards and seven touchdowns in the win on Opening Day. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are likely licking their chops at the thought of exposing this defense that allowed the vikings to score 20 points in the fourth quarter at home last week. Detroit's defense has been very good against the run, ranking 5th with opponents averaging fewer than 100 yards per game. This is likely going to force the Ravens to pass, resulting in less time coming off the clock with offensive possessions. We've seen high scoring games in six of the Lions last seven home games, and there is every reason to expect another barn burner tonight. When it's all said and done, I expect the home team to win and and cover. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
12-15-13	Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 40	Top	20-30	Win	100	151 h 3 m	Show
This is a 10* play on CIN@PIT to go OVER the total. The Steelers defense looked pretty bad against Miami last week, allowing the Dolphins to leave town with a 34-28 victory. They will host the Bengals this week, and Cincinnati is coming off a 42-28 win over the Colts. Andy Dalton threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns, while Giovani Bernard picked up 99 yards on just 12 carries. The Bengals can clinch a playoff birth with a win in Pittsburgh, and a loss by the Ravens or the Dolphins. Big Ben has thrown for 1190 yards and 11 touchdowns without a single interception over his last four starts. These two teams have both scored their fair share of points this season, and I expect to see these two offenses put some points on the board. We see a very low total for this game, based on past trends of low scoring games. Those trends came at a time when the Steelers defense was a lot better than it is today. Take the Over. GL, Jesse Schule
12-14-13	Army v. Navy UNDER 55	Top	7-34	Win	100	126 h 46 m	Show
This is a 10* play on ARMY@NAVY to go UNDER the total. The annual Army/Navy game has some overwhelming trends, most notably the fact that Navy beats Army every year, or at least going back the last decade. The margin of victory though has been quite slim the last two year, as Army lost 17-13 last year, and 27-21 in 2011. With two teams that focus almost exclusively on running the football, it's not surprising that the trend has been low scoring games. The total has gone under in every game between these two teams since 2005. It seems odd that the listed total for this year's game is no lower than it had been in any of the previous five meetings. In fact, we have seen the total as low as 41 in 2009, and still they failed to reach that number. Weather certainly could be a factor, as the venue of Lincoln Field can be a frozen tundra in mid December. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-28-13	Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 52	Top	10-17	Win	100	53 h 25 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MISS@MISST to go UNDER the total. The Bulldogs have played great defense in recent games, and they've seen the total go under in five of their last six overall. They limited the #1 ranked Crimson Tide to just 20 points in a 20-7 loss in their last home game, and I think we can expect to see a spirited defensive effort against rivals Ole Miss in their final home game. The Rebels have also played solid defense, and they held the #8 Missouri Tigers to just 24 points last week. Both teams have struggled offensively however, and Mississippi State could be forced to start a third string quarterback. Last week Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen was just 10-of-17 for 114 yards, no TDs and an INT against the Bulldogs. Bo Wallace was 26-of-42 for 244 yards against Missouri last week, but failed to get in the endzone, and he was picked off by Randy Ponder. I expect these two defenses to steal the show Thursday night, and we should see a low scoring game in Mississippi. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-18-13	New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers OVER 47	Top	20-24	Loss	-110	14 h 40 m	Show
This is a 10* play on NE@CAR to go OVER the total. Now I am not a Patriots fan, but I must admit that it has been amazing watching Tom Brady and Bill Belichick hold this team together, despite all the adversity they have faced this season. Things seem to be falling into place for New England though. With Gronkowski back, and Amendola healthy, they put up 55 points on the league's best pass defense in their last game, and they come into tonight's game with added rest coming out of the bye week. The Pats defense didn't look so hot against the Steelers though, as Big Ben threw for 400 yards and four TDs, and Pittsburgh put up 31 points in a losing effort. New England has really struggled to defend the run, and that's going to be a problem against the Panthers, who have averaged over 120 rushing yards per game during their winning streak. Both teams should put a few points on the board tonight. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-15-13	Washington v. UCLA UNDER 62.5	Top	31-41	Loss	-110	80 h 49 m	Show
This is a 10* play on WASH@UCLA to go UNDER the total. The Bruins have gotten creative with their offense, replacing their star running back Jordon James with linebacker Myles Jack. The move paid dividends last week at Arizona, with Jack running for 120 yards and a TD on just six carries. The Huskies might prove to be a little tougher defensively than Arizona was though. This Huskies team pushed Stanford to the brink in Palo Alto, limiting the Cardinals to less than 300 yards of total offense. The Huskies will be looking to give UCLA a healthy dose of Bishop Sankey, who ranks third in the nation averaging 145 yards per game. UCLA is also very strong defensively, with one of top linebacking corps in the country. Brett Hundley has had some big games this year, but those have come against weaker teams. He's really struggled against the likes of Utah, Oregon and Stanford. I don't think this Huskies team is going to give him a lot of room, and he could be in for another rough night. The Bruins have taken 4-of-6 meetings versus Washington since 2004, and five of those games saw the total go under. Tonight's total is far higher than it was in any of those previous meetings. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-14-13	Marshall v. Tulsa UNDER 61.5	Top	45-34	Loss	-110	12 h 17 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MRSH@TLSA to go UNDER the total. The Hurricane have been a big disappointment this season, coming off such a successful campaign last year. They will host Marshall tonight, and the Thundering Herd have been putting a lot of points on the board in recent weeks. In fact they've scored over 150 points the last three weeks, but two of those three games were against inferior opponents at home. Marshall has struggled on the road, losing three of four, and three of those games saw the total go below 60 points. Tulsa on the other had has played far better at home, and all four of it's home games have failed to go over 60 points. With a total above 60 here tonight, I think there's a good chance we see the under pay out. The Golden Hurricanes also have quarterback issues, with freshman Dane Evans completing just 45% of his passes with three TDs and six INTs, they might not be inclined to air it out. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-12-13	Buffalo v. Toledo UNDER 56	Top	41-51	Loss	-110	52 h 60 m	Show
This is a 10* play on Buffalo@Toldeo to go UNDER the total. Buffalo's defense looked pretty dominant in a 30-3 win over the Ohio Bobcats last week. It's not like we should be surprised though, they pitched a shutout on the road versus Western Michigan a few weeks earlier. The Bulls have now allowed an averafe of fewer than 9 points per game over their last six. The Bulls will face a tough Toledo Team tonight, and their star running back David Fluellen. The Rockets rely on their running game for offense, averaging 239 yards per game (15th). Fluellen though may not be 100%, after suffering a leg injury that caused him to miss last week's game against Eastern Washington. Toledo won last year's meeting by a score of 25-20 in Buffalo. This year the Bulls appear to be much tougher defensively, and with both teams leaning on the run, I think the total in the mid fifties is just a little too high. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-10-13	Denver Broncos v. San Diego Chargers UNDER 59	Top	28-20	Win	100	16 h 3 m	Show
This is a 10* play on DEN@SD to go UNDER the total. The Broncos have seen the total go over the number in all of their games this year, and these two teams have seen the total go over in four of the last five meetings. The result is that public money is coming in on the over, driving the total up several points, even though the opening line was sky high. I had the under in Denver two weeks ago, and here is what I said: "It's easy to see why people expect this to be a high scoring tilt, after all, Denver has seen the total go over the number in each of it's last 10 games dating back to last season. Keep in mind though, today's total is far higher than it was in any of those games. Last week the Redskins and the Bears played a game with the score looking like a basketball game at halftime (45-41). The thing is, all those points the Skins scored last week, all the touchdown passes that Manning has thrown this season, and all the touchdowns that the Washington defense has allowed... none of those count against the score in this game. It's a new week, a new game, and anything can, and probably will happen. It takes a lot of things to go right for both teams offensively to combine for over 60 points, and not a lot has to go wrong to see just one of these offenses stall, resulting in the total going under." Sure enough, the score was tied 7-7 at the half, but after a wild second half, it still went over. Plain and simple .. the value is a play on the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 52	Top	27-13	Win	100	166 h 43 m	Show
This is a play on the EAGLES/PACKERS UNDER. Nick Foles had a monster day in Oakland a week ago, but welcome to Lambeau Field kid .. This is not Oakland! Green Bay's defense is going to have to dominate in order to give them a chance to win this game, and they might do just that. Don't expect Senneca Wallace to air it out much.. the Packers should lean on the run. Points should be far and few between. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-09-13	San Diego State v. San Jose State OVER 55	Top	34-30	Win	100	17 h 39 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SDST@SJST to go OVER the total. The Aztecs are coming off a home win over New Mexico last week, in a close 35-30 game that didn't see a lot of defense. We might expect a similar game tonight in San Jose, as the Spartans defense hasn't look great this season either. The Spartans beat the Aztecs in San Diego last year by a score of 38-34, and these teams have seen the total go over in three of four meetings since 2005. Neither team puts much of an emphasis on the run, preferring to air it out, and neither defense is particularly good at defending the pass. Last week the Aztecs allowed the Lobos to drive the length of the field in the final 1:50 to make it a five-point game, before recovering the onside kick attempt. I'm expecting to see a sloppy game between two evenly matched teams, going back and forth with plenty of points being scored. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-09-13	BYU v. Wisconsin UNDER 55.5	Top	17-27	Win	100	10 h 40 m	Show
This is a 10* play on BYU@WISC to go UNDER the total. The Badgers offense really struggled last week in Iowa, with Joel Stave completing 11-of-19 for 144 yards with a pair of TDs and an INT. They went into the fourth quarter clinging to a 14-9 lead, but went on to score 14 unanswered points, thanks to a pair of Iowa interceptions. They return home to face BYU, a team that is know for stellar defense. The Cougars have won 2-of-3 on the road, and two of those games were tight defensive battles, losing 19-16 at Virginia, and defeating the Utah State Aggies by a score of 31-14 in Logan. Both teams have seen the total go under the number in five of eight games, and part of the reason for that is a heavy focus on running the football for both teams. The Badgers are one of the top run stopping teams in the country, allowing an average of just 91 yards per game. Points should be hard to come by in Madison this afternoon. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-09-13	Missouri v. Kentucky UNDER 57.5	Top	48-17	Loss	-106	6 h 11 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MIZZ@UK to go UNDER the total. The Wildcats are 2-3 at home, and all but one of those five games has gone under the total. While they only have two wins on the season, both against very poor teams, they haven't really given up a ton of points, allowing an average of just over 27 points per game. They will host a very good Missouri team today, but the Tigers could have a backup signal caller filling in for James Franklin. Reports out of the Missouri camp have suggested that Franklin might be healthy enough to start, but it would seem pretty reckless rushing him back against a team that they should beat easily. Regardless, if he does get the start, expect him to have a very cautious approach, and a conservative game plan. The Tigers defense should get the job done, ranking second in the nation with 17 interceptions so far. They picked off Tennessee's Josh Dobbs twice last week, holding the Vols to just three points. The Tigers won last year's meeting by a score of 33-10, and I expect to see a similar score here in today's game. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-07-13	Washington Redskins v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 49	Top	27-34	Win	100	20 h 43 m	Show
This is a 10* play on WASH@MIN to go OVER the total. I'll have to admit, the Vikings showed a lot of moxie going into Dallas and coming just 35 seconds away from the upset. Still, they couldn't stop Tony Romo from scoring on a last minute drive, handing the Vikings their fourth straight loss. They host the Redskins on Thursday, and Washington has looked pretty good the last few weeks. They've won two of their last three, and even in Denver they had a 14 point lead halfway through the third quarter. Both these teams have really struggled on defense this season, and between the two of them, they've seen the total go over at a rate of 11-5. The Skins won't mind a shootout, and going up against a Minnesota defense that is one of only two teams that rank worse than they do against the pass, it could be a big day for RGIII. We should see a lot of points scored here in Minnesota tonight, but when the smoke clears, I expect to see the Skins come out on top. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-04-13	Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 51.5	Top	27-20	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
This is a 10* play on CHI@GB to go UNDER the total. The Packers have been able to overcome injuries to Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley and Clay Matthews, winning four in a row prior to tonight's home game versus Chicago. They covered a double digit spread on the road in Minnesota last week, and they are expected to run away with tonight's game as well. We haven't seen a lot of points scored in the last two games at Lambeau Field, an average of just 38 in wins over Detroit and Cleveland. The Bears defense hasn't put together impressive numbers, but they have led the league in forced fumbles, and they aren't far off the lead with 10 interceptions. It won't take too many turnovers to keep the Packers from running up the score here. These teams have a long history of playing low scoring games, with nine of the last 10 meetings going under the total. Tonight's total is also higher than it was in any of those previous meetings. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-03-13	Philadelphia Eagles v. Oakland Raiders UNDER 45	Top	49-20	Loss	-110	28 h 47 m	Show
This is a 10* play on PHI@OAK to go UNDER the total. Chip Kelly's Blur Offense made headlines in Week 1, as the Eagles won in a shootout on Monday night in the nation's capital, but it's been all downhill since then. The Eagles have been out-scored 32-10 in back to back home losses to Dallas and New York. The Eagles are in Oakland this week to play the Raiders, who are 3-1 at home. The Raiders defense has been looking good in recent weeks, and they have limited opponents to an average of just 17 points per game in their four home games. Nick Foles will take over for the injured Mike Vick at quarterback for the Eagles, and he didn't have any success in his last appearance against Dallas. Foles was 11-for-29, throwing for just 80 yards, and the Eagles offense managed just a FG in a 17-3 loss. The Raiders passing game might not scare anyone, but with Terrelle Pryor posing an added threat with his legs, the Eagles better be on their toes. Pryor ran for 93 yards, scoring a TD on the opening play from scrimmage last week. Darren McFadden is also coming on, he ran for 73 yards and a pair of TDs on 24 carries. With the Eagles offense in a sad state, I expect to see Oakland grind out another victory at home in a low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-03-13	Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 41	Top	23-13	Win	100	0 h 23 m	Show
10*
11-03-13	San Diego Chargers v. Washington Redskins UNDER 49.5	Top	24-30	Loss	-110	0 h 27 m	Show
10*
11-03-13	Minnesota Vikings v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 51	Top	23-27	Win	100	0 h 29 m	Show
10*
11-02-13	North Carolina v. NC State UNDER 57.5	Top	27-19	Win	100	30 h 38 m	Show
This is a 10* play on UNC@NCST to go UNDER the total. A tough schedule has taken it's toll on the Tar Heels, and they only have two wins in their first seven games. They snapped a four game losing streak with a win on the road over Boston College last week, and their defense came up big, holding the Eagles to just 57 yards passing. The Wolfpack might have a tough time passing this week, with backup quarterback Brandon Mitchell who has yet to throw a touchdown this season, and threw for just 128 yards against FSU last week. N.C. State has averaged just 13 points, while losing it's last three games. Last week's loss to FSU doesn't tell us much, but a home loss to Syracuse and a loss on the road to Wake Forest are quite telling. The Wolfpack have seen the total go below the number in nine of it's last 10 home games, and today's total is actually higher than it was in any of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
11-02-13	Wisconsin v. Iowa UNDER 48.5	Top	28-9	Win	100	29 h 7 m	Show
This is a 10* play on WIS@IOWA to go UNDER the total. Two of the best defenses in the Big Ten conference will be showcased in Iowa this Saturday, with the Hawkeyes hosting the Wisconsin Badgers. The Hawkeyes are coming off an impressive 17-10 victory over Northwestern last week. Iowa is ranked 12th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just over 18 points per game. It's not like they have had a soft schedule either, they've played Northern Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Northwestern, teams that have all spent time in the top 25 rankings this season. Two weeks ago they went into Columbus and pushed the Buckeyes to the brink, in a game that was tied until Ohio State scored 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to win 34-24. The Badgers have lost 2-of-3 on the road, although they really got hosed in the desert, in a game that they likely would have won had the officials not botched the call on the final play of the game. The Hawkeyes have covered the points in seven of their last nine meetings with the Badgers, and they won six of those seven games outright. I am expecting another close, low scoring affair between these two teams this Saturday. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-27-13	Washington Redskins v. Denver Broncos UNDER 59.5	Top	21-45	Loss	-110	8 h 52 m	Show
This is a 10* play on WAS@DEN to go UNDER the total. When the bookmakers saw this game on the schedule, they knew the public would be scrambling to bet on the over between two of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. Even with a total that opened sky high, still the money has come in on the over pushing it even higher. It's easy to see why people expect this to be a high scoring tilt, after all, Denver has seen the total go over the number in each of it's last 10 games dating back to last season. Keep in mind though, today's total is far higher than it was in any of those games. Last week the Redskins and the Bears played a game with the score looking like a basketball game at halftime (45-41). The thing is, all those points the Skins scored last week, all the touchdown passes that Manning has thrown this season, and all the touchdowns that the Washington defense has allowed... none of those count against the score in this game. It's a new week, a new game, and anything can, and probably will happen. It takes a lot of things to go right for both teams offensively to combine for over 60 points, and not a lot has to go wrong to see just one of these offenses stall, resulting in the total going under. The Broncos scored 35 points in a win over Jacksonville in their last home game, and the total landed on 54 points. It seems like a lot to ask for these teams to score much more this Sunday. Take the Under. GL, Jesse Schule
10-25-13	Boise State v. BYU UNDER 61	Top	20-37	Win	100	12 h 55 m	Show
This is a 10* play on BSU@BYU to go UNDER the total. Boise State comes into Provo Friday night with a 5-2 record, but the Broncos have not looked good against top tier teams this season. The began the year with an ugly loss in Washington, getting blown out 38-6 by the Huskies. Joe Southwick only threw for 152 yards with no TDs and an interception in that game. With Southwick sidelined with an ankle injury, the Broncos hand the reigns to Grant Hedrick. He wasn't all that impressive in his first start of the season, only throwing for 150 yards without getting in the endzone, and tossing an interception. Those are some pretty poor numbers against a Nevada defense that has allowed an average of over 37 points per game (116th in the nation). This Cougars defense hasn't put up the numbers they did last year, but they are still more than capable of terrorizing an inexperienced quarterback. Last year these two teams played an epic defensive battle that ended with a final score of 7-6, with the Broncos winning on the blue turf. This season's version of the Cougar defense is allowing an average of 21 points per game, quite respectable, but a far cry from numbers they put up last year. Still, we've seen them come up big at home, with wins over Texas, Utah State and Georgia Tech. Expect to see BYU shut down the Broncos backup signal caller, winning and covering in a low scoring affair. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-24-13	Kentucky v. Mississippi State UNDER 56	Top	22-28	Win	100	34 h 8 m	Show
This is a 10* play on UK@MSST to go UNDER the total. Both the Kentucky Wildcats and the Mississippi State Bulldogs are positioned at the bottom of the SEC standings, with a combined conference record of 0-5. One of these teams is going to get it's first conference victory tonight, and it's the home team that is the big favorite. At 1-5, it's easy to see why the Wildcats are getting a bunch of points on the road. When you look at their schedule though, they've played four straight games against elite top 25 teams, and one of those was a 7-point loss to the Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. The Bulldogs have a better record, and better numbers on both offense and defense, but they've played a much softer schedule. Last week they barely beat Bowling Green, winning 21-20 at home. Kentucky ranks 89th in the nation on defense, allowing 29 points per game, but given that they've played Alabama, South Carolina, Louisville and Florida, I see those numbers as pretty solid. They held the Gators and the Cardinals below 30 points, and the score didn't get out of hand in either of those games. I'm expecting tonight's game to be a low scoring affair, and I think the Wildcats will have a chance to upset an overrated opponent. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-12-13	Oregon State v. Washington State OVER 62		52-24	Win	100	9 h 55 m	Show
This is a Free play on ORST@WSU to go OVER the total. Saturday night's Pac-12 showdown between the Beavers and the Cougars features two of the top 3 quarterbacks in the country (statistically). Oregon State's Sean Mannion leads the nation in passing yards with 2018, while Connor Halliday is third with 1993. The Beavers lost their season opener to Eastern Washington, but have since won four straight. The Cougars were blown out at home by Stanford two weeks ago, but bounce back with a lop-sided win over Cal this weekend. Both teams rely on an all out aerial attack, while neither team has had much success defensively. Oregon State is coming off a bye week, after a blowout win over the Colorado Buffaloes in Oregon at the end of September. The Beavers have likely used the added time off to put together an elaborate bag of tricks on offense. Oregon State has won five of the last six meetings, and each of their last three visits to Washington. Two of those three games saw the total go over the number, and all three were blowouts, decided by 20+ points. With the Beavers defense not what it was in past seasons, this one might be a little closer, and both teams should find the endzone early and often. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-12-13	Boise State v. Utah State UNDER 51	Top	34-23	Loss	-110	16 h 37 m	Show
This is a 10* play on BSU@USU to go UNDER the total. The Aggies have lost their starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton, and his replacement hasn't inspired much confidence so far. With Craig Harrison taking over for the injured Keeton, the Aggies are a sizable underdog at home. Harrison completed just 18-of-41 passes after coming in against BYU last week, and the Aggies went on to lose 31-14 at home. I'm still not convinced that Boise State can come to town and run away with the game like BYU did. The Broncos have scored points on weak defenses, but when they found themselves playing the Huskies on the road, they only managed a pair of field goals. The Aggies still have a strong defense, and I think they will keep the score close. We've seen Utah State play three straight low scoring games, with the number going under the total. With a backup quarterback starting for the home team, expect another low total tonight. Take the UNDER. GL. Jesse Schule
10-12-13	Georgia Tech v. BYU UNDER 54.5	Top	20-38	Loss	-110	15 h 38 m	Show
This is a 10* play on GT@BYU to go UNDER the total. The Cougars defense just continues to terrorize the opposition, last week rolling over Utah State, and injuring their quarterback for the rest of the season. I've bet the UNDER in every game BYU has played so far, and I've cashed in winning tickets in four of the five. With such an obvious trend, I would expect tonight's total to be below 50, but instead we see a total well over the 50 mark. The visiting Yellow Jackets have hit the wall, losing back-to-back games to Miami and Virginia Tech. They were held to just 10 points in a 17-10 loss at home to the Hokies, and I don't see any reason for them to enjoy anymore success tonight. The Cougars are known to be very tough against the run, and if you take away the run, the Yellow Jackets might as well waive a white flag. The Yellow Jackets have seen the total fall below the number in six of their last seven versus teams with a winning record, while BYU has seen the total go under in 5-of-6 overall. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-12-13	South Carolina v. Arkansas OVER 50.5	Top	52-7	Win	100	8 h 59 m	Show
This is a 10* play on SCAR@ARK to go OVER the total. South Carolina has been making news for all the wrong reasons this week, and I pegged the Gamecocks as the most overrated team in my weekly column (Exposing the top 25). Here is what I had to say: "The Gamecocks have not looked good, failing to cover the points in each of their last three games. Making matters worse for the underachieving squad, their star DE sat out last week with what ESPN's Tim Koen referred to as a "minor or non-existant injury." Coach Steve Spurrier was not at all happy about Clowney's decision not to play, and he's criticized his player publicly, saying: "If Clowney wants to play, we will welcome him to come play for the team if he wants. But if he doesn't want to play, he doesn't have to play. Simple as that." Clowney is supposed to play in today's game, but it seems very apparent that his hear isn't in it. He's simply biding his time until he get's the big paycheck when he's drafted by an NFL team. He's more worried about avoiding injury than he is about helping his team, and that doesn't sit well with his coach. South Carolina barely got by Kentucky last week in Columbia, and the Wildcats put up 28 points on the road in a 35--28 loss. Since Week 1, the Gamecocks have allowed 25+ points in each of their last four games. Not the kind of numbers that were expected from them before the season started. The are in Arkansas today, facing a Razorbacks team that has lost three straight. Their defense looked particularly vulnerable in a 28-24 loss to Rutgers on the road three weeks ago, and they've since lost by double digits to Texas A&M and Florida. We've seen the total go over the number in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams, yet today's total is still pretty low. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-11-13	Temple v. Cincinnati UNDER 51.5	Top	20-38	Loss	-110	15 h 36 m	Show
This is a 10* play on TEM@CIN to go UNDER the total. The Owls are still winless at 0-5, and they were blown out at home by Louisville last week by a score of 30-7. They benched their starting quarterback in the second quarter of that game, in favor of freshman P.J. Walker. Walker made an immediate impact, with a deep completion to Robby Anderson to put the Owls in the red zone. It's not going to be easy for Walker in Cincinnati though, as this Bearcats defense is pretty tough at home. Cincy has allowed an average of just 8 points while winning both their home games so far. The Bearcats are being asked to cover quite a large spread though, and I'm not convinced their offense is up for the task. Last week versus South Florida, they fumbled the ball four times, and quarterback Brendon Kay was picked off twice. Kay rallied to throw a pair of TD passes in the fourth, but the Bearcats came up short losing 26-20. Temple might not be as bad as it's 0-5 record indicates. They have been involved in a lot of low scoring games, (under in 4-of-5) and even when they've been blown out, it hasn't been a complete massacre. I think it would be a mistake for Cincy to expect a free pass here, and I think the Owls will put up a fight. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-07-13	NY Jets v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 44	Top	30-28	Win	100	12 h 3 m	Show
This is a 10* play on NYJ@ATL Over. The Falcons have battled through injuries, and they are off to a disappointing 1-3 start. Tonight they host the Jets on Monday Night football, and New York is also banged up. Chris Ivory, Stephen Hill and Santonio Holmes are all not expected to play tonight. Geno Smith is coming off a terrible game, with two fumbles and a pair of interceptions in the loss to Tennessee last week. The rookie has made mistakes, and that's to be expected. He has shown the ability to make things happen though, with over 100 yards and four TDs while going 2-2 as a starter. The Falcons are struggling to protect the pass, allowing opponents to average over 300 yards per game so far. Neither team has been very successful running the ball, and with both teams dealing with injuries to their top backs, I expect to see them air it out early and often. This should favor the Falcons, with Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. The Jets rookie is in a tough spot without the services of two of his top targets. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
10-04-13	BYU v. Utah State UNDER 58	Top	31-14	Win	100	54 h 51 m	Show
This is a 10* play on BYU@USU to go UNDER the total. The Aggies and the Cougars know each other well, and when these two teams meet, defense is usually the story. It was certainly a showcase of two of the top defenses in the nation last year, when the Cougars won 6-3 in Provo. In fact, over the past decade, all six previous meetings between these two teams have gone under the total. That being the case, I'm a little shocked to see the number in tonight's game is actually higher than it was in each of the last three meetings. Certainly neither team has given any reason to expect anymore offense tonight. The Cougars have seen the total go under in 3-of-4 of their games this season, and they combined to score just 33 points in the Holy War against the Utes two weeks ago. The Aggies have played some high scoring games against inferior opponents, but when facing top defenses they haven't done a lot of scoring. Utah State lost on the road to USC by a score of 17-14, and in Utah to the Utes by a score of 30-26. Both of those combined for fewer points than the listed total in tonight's contests. The home team is being asked to cover a rather large spread, especially considering that BYU has won the last two meetings, and nine of the last 10. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-29-13	Philadelphia Eagles v. Denver Broncos UNDER 59	Top	20-52	Loss	-110	8 h 15 m	Show
This is a 10* play on PHI@DEN to go UNDER the total. At first glance, when I looked at this week's schedule and saw the Eagles in Denver, I thought to myself: "that should be a high scoring game." When I say high scoring, I'm thinking 50 points or more. It turns out that most people expect to see a lot of points in Denver today, and the result is a total higher than you will see most weekends, and perhaps most seasons. Now we take a number that's approaching 60, and let's stop and have a good look at this. The Eagles offense has been completely shut down in the second half in Washington, the first half at home versus San Diego, and most of the entire game versus the Chiefs last week. They are facing a Denver defense that is likely far tougher than any of those three teams they previously faced, and the Broncos have had plenty of time to prepare for what's coming. So far it does appear that defensive coach's have been able to make the adjustments necessary to counter Chip Kelly's hyper speed offense. LeSean McCoy leads the NFL in rushing yards, but he's facing a Denver defense that ranks first in the NFL allowing an average of just 43 yards per game. Last week the Broncos absolutely stuffed Darren McFadden, limiting him to nine yards on a dozen carries. It's not going to take a lot of defense from the Broncos here to keep this total from sailing over the inflated number. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-28-13	Stanford v. Washington State OVER 46.5	Top	55-17	Win	100	17 h 21 m	Show
This is a 10* play on STAN@WSU to go OVER the total. As impressive as Mike Leach's defense has been in the first four games of this season, I don't think the Cougars are going to be able to stop Stanford. Washington State has only allowed 17 points while winning three straight, and their win on the road over USC was quite impressive. Still, we saw Auburn score 31 points on them in their opener, and there's no reason why Stanford can't do even better than that. The Cardinal won convincingly over a very good Arizona State team last week, by a score of 42-28. They did most of the damage with strong defense and a power running game, gaining 240 yards on the ground and scoring three rushing touchdowns. The Cougars "Air Raid" offense leans heavily on the passing game, and going up against a tough Stanford defense, that should translate into a lot of three and outs, not taking any time off the clock. With Washington State expected to struggle on offense, the total for this game is quite low. I'm expecting the Cougars to turn the ball over early and often, but I also think they will connect on a few of their air attacks, scoring at least enough to push the total over the number. After all, Connor Halliday ranks 6th in total passing yards amongst all the nation's quarterbacks. Take the Over. GL, Jesse Schule
09-28-13	Wisconsin v. Ohio State UNDER 56	Top	24-31	Win	100	15 h 23 m	Show
This is a 10* play on WISC@OSU to go UNDER the total. The Buckeyes have been very impressive against inferior competition, but tonight they host a top 25 team in Wisconsin, that might just give them a run for their money. The Badgers have allowed an average of just over 10 points per game, and by all rights they should still be undefeated. Only a controversial finish in Arizona leaves a blemish on their record, as the officials failed to spot the ball, allowing time to expire when the Badgers should have had an attempt at a chip shot field goal to win it. The total for this game is significantly higher than it was in any of the previous 10 head to head meetings. Those games trended toward the under at a rate of 6-3-1. Last season's meeting in Wisconsin finished with the Buckeyes winning in OT by a score of 21-14. I expect to see another closely contested defensive battle here in this game. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-28-13	Colorado v. Oregon State OVER 58	Top	17-44	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
This is a 10* play on COL@ORST to go OVER the total. The Beavers have won three straight since being upset by Eastern Washington in their home opener. The Oregon State defense hasn't been stopping anyone though, even in the games they have won. There's nothing wrong with the offense though, and quarterback Sean Mannion leads the nation in passing yards. He's completed over 71% of his passes for more than 1600 yards and 15 touchdowns, with just one interception. The Buffaloes are another pass happy team, and they rank 7th in the nation passing for an average of over 370 yards per game. These two teams have played six games between them, and five of those six games have been high scoring tilts, with the number sailing over. The Buffaloes have seen the total go over in five straight road games, while Oregon State has played five straight overs in games versus Pac-12 opponents. The Beavers have seen the total go over in seven straight against teams with winning records. All things considered, I think the total here is a little too low. Take the OVER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-27-13	Middle Tennessee State v. BYU UNDER 59.5	Top	10-37	Win	100	39 h 55 m	Show
This is a 10* play on MTU@BYU to go UNDER the total. The Cougars lost at home to the Utah Utes on Saturday, and they will look to bounce back with a convincing win over the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Friday night. BYU is giving up an awful lot of points, especially when you consider that it's offense failed to score a point in the first half against Utah, and only managed 13 points losing 20-13. The Blue Raiders though are over-matched, and they haven't fared well in non-conference games, failing to cover the points in each of their last five. The Cougars have allowed an average of 20 points per game so far, but their previous opponents have all been far better teams that the Blue Raiders. They defeated the Texas Longhorns by a score of 40-21 in their home opener, and last season the Cougars won six of seven home games, allowing an average of 12.8 points in those games. We can expect to see BYU bounce back from last week's loss, with a one-sided victory here tonight, dominating with their defense. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-23-13	Oakland Raiders v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5	Top	21-37	Loss	-105	13 h 40 m	Show
This is a 10* play on OAK@DEN to go UNDER the total. After a couple of high scoring games to start the season, I expect to see a slower pace to tonight's game in Denver. The Raiders don't air it out anywhere as often as the Giants and Ravens who Denver faced in Weeks 1 and 2. Oakland leans heavily on it's running game to provide offense, and that's going to be tough against a Broncos defense that has allowed an average of 40 yards per game. There is a lot of talk about the injury to three time Pro Bowler Ryan Clady, who will be out for the remainder of the season. If his replacement Ryan Clark struggles, this could stall the Denver offense. These teams played twice last year, and the Raiders scored a combined 19 points, losing both meetings. Even at home against the lowly Jaguars last week, the Raiders were only able to put 19 points on the board. Oakland owns the league's worst passing attack, despite the fact that they have yet to face an above average defense. With the Raiders unlikely to contribute much offense, I expect to see the total fall short of the listed number. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-21-13	Utah v. BYU UNDER 61.5	Top	20-13	Win	100	67 h 10 m	Show
This is a 10* play on Utah@BYU to go UNDER the total. The Utes hosted the Cougars in Salt Lake City, winning by a score of 24-21. They might be hard pressed to repeat that performance this time around, as the Cougars defense is looking pretty strong. Last week David Ash completed just 19-of-34 attempts for 251 yards and a pair of TDs in a losing effort, with Texas falling by a score of 40-21. When these teams met in September of last year, the total was listed at 44.5, and the previous meeting in 2011 saw a total of 46. Both of those games went over the the total, but the total for this game is over 60, higher than it has been in any of the past 10 meetings between these two teams. The Utes are coming off a loss to Oregon State in overtime, in a 51-48 shootout at Salt Lake City. It wasn't surprising to see a high scoring game against the Beavers, but I wouldn't expect to see as much offense against the Cougars. Last year the Cougars shutout Hawaii at home, held the USU Aggies to just a field goal, and won their home opener by a score of 30-6 over Washington State. The only opponent that they didn't manage to contain at home was Oregon State. I expect the Cougars to avenge last year's loss, slowing the Utes offense in a defensive clinic at home. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-21-13	Missouri v. Indiana UNDER 71	Top	45-28	Loss	-106	39 h 30 m	Show
This is a 10* play on Missouri vs Indiana to go UNDER the total. The Hoosiers are coming off a one-sided victory over Bowling Green, winning by a final score of 42-10. On the surface that looks quite impressive, and maybe that's part of the reason why they are getting so much credit coming into today's game against an SEC team that should probably be a significant favorite. Scoring on a team out of the MAC is not the same as putting points on the board against an opponent from the SEC, even if the Tigers are one of the weaker teams in the nation's toughest conference. A closer look at last week's victory reveals that the game versus the Falcons wasn't as one-sided as the final score indicates. Two missed field goals, and four failed fourth down conversions put Indiana in excellent field position, instead of putting points on the board for the Falcons. Missouri isn't likely to be so generous with field position, and while neither team is great defensively, the Tigers should prove to be better. The total for this game is sky high, but I think that's assuming we will see a close game going back and forth trading scores from both teams. I'm expecting the Tigers to win handily, and I think Indiana is going to struggle to put points on the board. Take the Under. GL, Jesse Schule
09-21-13	Arizona State v. Stanford UNDER 51.5	Top	28-42	Loss	-111	38 h 32 m	Show
This is a 10* play on Arizona State vs Stanford to go UNDER the total. The Sun Devils were fortunate to get a lucky break last week, as the referees botched the final play, allowing the clock to run down before Wisconsin could kick a game winning field goal. They will need all the luck they can get this week, going into Palo Alto to take on the Cardinal. Arizona State is just 1-5 ATS in it's last six visits to Stanford, and four of the last five of those games went under the total. There might not be a better defense in college football, part of the reason why Stanford has won eight of it's last nine home games versus ranked teams. As good as the #5 ranked Cardinal are defensively, they aren't known to run up the score, with a very conservative approach on offense. Last week versus Army, Kevin Hogan only attempted 18 passes, hitting his target 11 times for 188 yards. Expect Stanford to lean on it's running game at home, winning a tight low scoring game against a dangerous opponent. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-14-13	Washington v. Illinois UNDER 63.5	Top	34-24	Win	100	17 h 7 m	Show
This is a 10* play on the Huskies vs Illini to go UNDER the total. Washington dominated Boise State in a 38-6 blowout win in it's home opener, and the Huskies defense looked impenetrable. After a bye week they come into Soldier Field well rested, having plenty of time to prepare for Illinois. The home crowd will be behind the Illini, even though this is a neutral site. Illinois looked good in a one-sided win over Cincinnati last week, but they should find things a lot tougher against the dogs. Their defensive clinic in Week 1 shouldn't really be a surprise, this Huskies team comes into the 2013 season with a reputation for tough gritty battles against Stanford and USC last year, upsetting the Cardinal and just missing the upset against the Trojans. Both those games were in Washington, and their success on the road has been a question mark. That being said, they did win a couple of low scoring games on the road at the end of last season in California and Colorado. Expect the Huskies to come out looking to establish the run, as Bishop Sankey is an absolute beast, and almost impossible to stop. Success with the run will lead to a lot of clock killing drives, and this total over 60 looks a little high all things considered. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
09-13-13	Air Force v. Boise State OVER 57	Top	20-42	Win	100	18 h 18 m	Show
This is a 10* play on Air Force/Boise State to go Over the total. The Boise State Broncos were destroyed in Week 1 by Washington, but they bounced back with a blowout win over an inferior opponent last week. The Broncos host the Air Force Falcons Friday night, and they are a heavy favorite. The Falcons are still licking their wounds after getting throttled by Utah State over the weekend. We learned in Week 1 that this Bronco's defense doesn't appear to be the same rock solid unit that played an epic defensive war in a 7-6 home win over BYU last year. The Huskies scored at will, and they did much of the damage with their running game, with 268 yards and three rushing TDs. We all know what to expect from the Falcons, after all .. to say they lean on the run would be an understatement of enormous proportions. Air Force is ranked in the Top 20 in the nation in rushing after just two weeks in 2013, and they ranked 3rd overall in rushing last year, averaging over 300 yards per game. The Falcons managed to put up 20 points in a losing effort against Utah State last week, and they might be able to improve on that total this week. Joe Southwick didn't fare too well against the Huskies, but he tossed five touchdown passes, completing 17-of-25 attempts for 234 yards against Tennessee Martin last week. The Broncos may not be a Top 25 team in 2013, but they can still put points on the board against an inferior opponent. I expect to see both these teams have their share of success on offense tonight, scoring enough to push the total over the number. GL, Jesse Schule
08-31-13	Boise State v. Washington Huskies UNDER 52	Top	6-38	Win	100	106 h 36 m	Show
This is 10* play on Boise St. vs Washington to go UNDER the total. The Broncos defeated the Huskies in the Las Vegas Bowl in December by a score of 28-26, and these teams meet again in the opening game of the 2013 season. This time the game is in Washington, and the Huskies are the favorites. Washington comes into the season with very lofty expectations for a team that finished 7-6 in 2012. The Huskies won 2-of-3 home games versus ranked opponents last year, defeating Stanford and Oregon State, while losing to USC. All three of those games were close, low scoring affairs, decided by no more than 10 points. Washington will be missing one of it's biggest offensive threats, the school's career receptions leader among tight ends, Austin Seferian-Jenkins. He had six receptions for 61 yards and a TD in the Las Vegas Bowl. Both these two teams are strong defensively, and I expect both teams to focus heavily on running the ball. I'm expecting to see a game very similar to what we saw in the Las Vegas Bowl, but this time the total falls short of 50. GL, Jesse Schule
08-31-13	BYU v. Virginia UNDER 51	Top	16-19	Win	100	6 h 27 m	Show
This is a 2-Team (7.5 point) Teaser on BYU+UNDER. Few teams fielded a defense capable of dominating games the way the Cougar's did in 2012. Perhaps the most impressive display came in an epic battle with Boise State on September 20, that resulted in the Broncos winning 7-6 when BYU missed a 2-point conversion. Another thing that was glaringly obvious in that game was that the Cougar's offense was holding the team back. Riley Nelson was playing through injuries, and he finished the season with just 13 touchdowns, and as many INTs. The offense was at it's best with Taysom Hill at quarterback, and he'll take the reigns in 2013. He completed 24 of 36 attempts, with a TD and an INT in a 6-3 win over the USU Aggies last year. He added 80 yards on the ground in that game, an impressive performance against one of the top defenses in the country. The Cougars open the season on the road versus Virginia, and this isn't an easy matchup by any means. The Cavs though are coming off a disappointing 4-8 campaign last year, and that has resulted in bringing in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. The defense should be solid with all four starters returning in the secondary, led by all-star candidate Demetrious Nicholson at cornerback. The passing game was the Achilles heel last season, and there is no reason to expect it to get any better this year. This is a nightmare matchup for Virginia, and it's unlikely they will get anything going offensively against this Cougar's defense. Take BYU+UNDER GL, Jesse Schule
08-30-13	Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Florida) UNDER 53.5	Top	6-34	Win	100	80 h 37 m	Show
This is a 10* play on FAU@MIA UNDER. Miami is coming off a 7-5 season in 2012, but the Hurricanes boast one of the top recruiting classes in the country this season. While many expect Miami to make some noise this season, I wouldn't be surprised if it took time for their top tier newcomers to start paying dividends. The Hurricanes open the season at home against the lowly Florida Atlantic Owls, who lost nine of 13 games in 2012. The Owls might have lost a lot of games, but they didn't just fold like a cheap suit. Even against the likes of Alabama and Georgia, they still kept the margin under 40 points. They lost five of their first six games, and five of those six games failed to reach 50 points, including a 40-7 loss to the Crimson Tide. Owls head coach Carl Pelini has been quoted as saying this year's team boasts "the best crop of young talent in school history". I'm not overly optimistic that FAU will be much improved, but I'm counting on them at least not being any worse. Ultimately the Hurricanes are being asked to cover a spread that is roughly the same as the margin of victory when FAU played the Crimson Tide in Alabama last year. I don't care how good their recruiting class is, they have a long way to go before they deserve any comparisons to Alabama. That being said, I do expect the Hurricanes defense to dominate this game, keeping the total relatively low. Miami will win, but often it's difficult to cover a large spread in Week 1. Take the UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule

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