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PREMIUM PICKS & BEST BETS
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots -1 v. Rams||Top||13-3||Win||100||329 h 35 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on New England.
Why do you think the Rams beat the Saints? Are you one of those conspiracy theorists that believes the only reason the Rams are playing in the Super Bowl is because a referee missed a call at the end of the NFC Championship Game? If that's what you believe, then I think you are missing something. You have to give credit where credit is due, and I think it's fair to say that Jared Goff outplayed Drew Brees. I also think it's pretty clear that Sean McVay outcoached Sean Payton. I don't think the Rams can count on winning the quarterback battle or the coaching battle here against Brady and Belichick. My money is on experience over youth, and I expect Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski to turn back the clock.
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||14-20||Win||100||2 h 11 m||Show|
This is a play on the Eagles.
The Eagles are the hot team coming into this divisional playoff game versus New Orleans. The Saints are Super Bowl favorites, but Drew Brees and company sputtered a bit down the stretch. After losing to the Cowboys in Dallas, they scored just three points in the first half in Tampa before rallying for a come from behind win. Their home win over the Steelers was helped by a pair of controversial pass inerference penalties on the game winning drive. Nick Foles has picked up right where he left off in last year's playoffs, and he will go up against a Saints defense that allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. I like Philly to keep this game relatively close and Foles to have a big day.
|01-12-19||Cowboys +8.5 v. Rams||22-30||Win||100||80 h 44 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
|01-12-19||Colts +5.5 v. Chiefs||Top||13-31||Loss||-109||94 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Colts.
|01-06-19||Eagles v. Bears -5.5||Top||16-15||Loss||-109||118 h 59 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the Chicago Bears.
Can you believe that the Eagles are back in the playoffs, and last year's Super Bowl MVP is once against playing like one of the league's best quarterbacks. Nick Foles is capable of being great (at times) but let's not get carried away when we compare him to other great quarterbacks. The Bears have wins over the Packers and the Seahawks, and Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have been consistently great for their entire careers spanning the better part of the last decade. Nick Foles on the other hand has had a handful of great games in an otherwise mediocre career. He comes into Chicago nursing sore ribs, and he's in serious danger of taking a beating today. I like the Bears to win big at Soldier Field.
|01-06-19||Chargers +2.5 v. Ravens||Top||23-17||Win||100||114 h 24 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the LA Chargers.
Lamar Jackson has turned things around for the Baltimore Ravens, who might not have made the playoffs without him. I am not convinced he is the quarterback of the future for this franchise though, as I have seen this script before. It seems like nobody remembers his teammate RGIII early in his career in Washington. As exciting as it is when he eludes defenders and picks up big gains with his athletic ability, he's nothing short of a disaster in the passing game. He matches up against a potential future Hall of Famer in Phillip Rivers, and heaven forbid if he needs to rally his team late (as Rivers has done countless times in the past). The Ravens defense is statistically the best in the NFL, but they almost didn't survive in a must win game against the Browns last week. Baker Mayfield lit them up for 376 yards and three scores. I expect Rivers to be just as good here in this Wild Card game.
|01-05-19||Seahawks +2.5 v. Cowboys||22-24||Win||100||98 h 33 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks 1st Half.
The Cowboys come into the playoffs as winners of seven of their last eight overall, but I don't think that run is as impressive as it looks. The fact remains that Dak Prescott is no more than an average quarterback, and Jason Garrett is a below average coach. The Cowboys have a history of post-season failure, while the Seahawks have a history of post-season success. Russell Wilson has had an MVP worthy season, and I just think this is a tough draw for Dallas. The Seahawks have won four of the last five meetings versus Dallas since 2012, including a pair of wins at Dallas. I think Seattle can do everything Dallas can do, without making as many mistakes. I'll take the points.
|12-30-18||Colts -2.5 v. Titans||Top||33-17||Win||100||102 h 43 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Titans may have won four straight, but those wins came against the Jets, Jags, Giants and Redskins. Not only have they built their winning streak against some of the weaker teams in the NFL, many of those wins were far from impressive. They trailed at home against the Redskins last week, and they were losing 16-6 at the half in a home win over the Jets a few weeks ago. The Colts have won eight of their last nine overall, including a 38-10 win over Tennessee. They led 24-3 at halftime in that game, and Andrew Luck threw for 297 yards and three TDs on 23-of-29 passing. The Colts last road game was a 24-21 win over the Texans in Houston, and they led 17-7 at the half in that game. If Marcus Mariota is healthy enough to start this game, he might not finish it. The Titans leading receiver Corey Davis is also banged up, and keeping up with Andrew Luck is going to be a tough ask for Tennessee.
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -3.5||Top||24-10||Loss||-115||98 h 40 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
I took Minnesota +3.5 when they lost 25-20 at Chicago a few weeks ago. A missed two-point conversion at the end of the game cost me the cover. Here is what I said before kickoff: "The Bears have looked really good this season, coming into this weekend's home game against the Vikings with a 6-3 record, sitting first in the NFC North. The Vikings are hot on their heels, and at 5-3-1 they have navigated a much tougher schedule. Two of those three losses came against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the league (Saints and Rams). Coming off a bye week, Minnesota is as healthy as it has been all year. Dalvin Cook is back, and he had over 100 yards from scrimmage in the win over Detroit. Minnesota has had success on the road, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The most significant number to me is ZERO! That's the number of wins Chicago has versus teams with a winning record this season. The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 versus teams with a winning record." The Bears have since won four of five games, including road wins at Detroit and San Francisco. This will be the Bears first road game against a team with a winning record. They have lost at Miami and at New York (Giants). It's hard to beat a team twice, and that is going to be especially true given what's at stake for the Vikings here.
|12-23-18||Bears v. 49ers +4||14-9||Loss||-105||138 h 20 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Bears are the NFC North champs, and we have all seen the video of Chicago players celebrating post game in a disco themed nightclub following Sunday's win over Green Bay. This sets them up for the mother of all let down spots, traveling out West to take on the 49ERS. The Bears are just 3-3 on the road this season, and two of those three wins came in games decided by less than a touchdown. They won 16-14 at Arizona, and they lost at Miami and Green Bay. Their last road game was a 30-27 loss to the New York Giants. The 49ERS are coming off an impressive win over Seattle at home, giving them a 4-3 home record. Expect the Niners to give the Bears all they can handle here this week.
|12-23-18||Bucs v. Cowboys -7||20-27||Push||0||135 h 15 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
I bet against the Cowboys last Sunday, and here is what I had to say before they got shutout by the Colts: "The Cowboys have won five straight, and people are calling them a Super Bowl contender. The Colts have won six of their last seven, and they aren't getting a whole lot of attention. So which one of these teams is for real? We'll find out on Sunday." While I was quick to point out that Dallas was overhyped, I am just as quick to jump back on the Boy's bandwagon when they return home to face a Tampa team that was eliminated from the post-season with a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. The Bucs rank 27th in the NFL versus the run, and Jameis Winston has thrown more INTs (10) than he has TD passes (8) on the road this season. I expect Zeke to run wild, and Famous Jameis to turn the ball over against this stingy Dallas D.
|12-22-18||Ravens v. Chargers -4||Top||22-10||Loss||-110||54 h 51 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the LAC.
I bet on the Chargers on TNF last week, and they pulled off an amazing comeback to beat the Chiefs. Here is what I said prior to that game: "The Chargers defense has been solid all year, and they rank in the Top 10 in the league versus the pass, allowing just 225 yards per game. The Chargers have covered the spread in four straight road games, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head to head meetings" The Ravens played the Chiefs a week earlier, and they lost in overtime by a score of 27-24. Lamar Jackson played well in Kansas City, throwing for 147 yards and two TDs on 13-of-24 passing. He had thrown three picks and just one TD pass in his previous three starts, and he had a mediocre game against a terrible Tampa Bay team last week. I don't think this rookie can keep his team in the game against Phillip Rivers and a Chargers defense that ranks among the best in the NFL. A healthy Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon will be a huge boost for the home team.
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers +7||Top||12-9||Win||100||126 h 57 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Panthers.
Most people still consider the Saints to be the best team in the NFL, but if there is one weakness it is Drew Brees on the road. A week after losing to Dallas, the Saints put up just three poins in the first half at Tampa Bay. They went on to rally for a win and cover in the second half of that game, but tonight they face a different monster. Cam Newton and Riverboat Ron are still alive in the playoff hunt, and they won't be an easy out here at home in Carolina.
|12-16-18||Eagles v. Rams -10.5||30-23||Loss||-100||84 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the LAR. It might seem like the bookmakers are asking a lot, pegging the Rams as a double digit favorite over the defending Super Bowl champs? Even thought Carson Wentz has been ruled out with a bad back, his replacement is the Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles. While Foles led the Eagles all the way last year, he took over on a winning team with a stacked backfield and one of the league's top defenses. Injuries have hit the Eagles hard, both in the secondary as well as at the RB position. The Rams will look to make a statement here, as people are calling them a fraud after they lost to the Bears in Chicago. Jared Goff would love to bounce back with another one-sided victory at home. Goff has been a completely different quarterback at home than he has been on the road. He has 18 TDs and just 2 INTs on better than 70 percent passing in LA, and he has as many picks (9) as he has TDs on the road. Take LAR. GL,
|12-16-18||Seahawks -4.5 v. 49ers||23-26||Loss||-104||98 h 49 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks are playing the 49ers for the second time in three weeks, and they won 43-16 at home in the last meeting. The 49ers are high on Nick Mullens, and he's certainly moved the ball throwing for almost 1500 yards and nine TDs in five starts. He's still a rookie though, and he's made his fair share of mistakes. He's thrown as many picks (6) as touchdowns in his last four starts. Given that the Niners have lost 10 straight to the Seahswks dating back to 2014, I don't expect much from Mullens here in this game. The Seahawks are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in San Francisco.
|12-15-18||Texans -6.5 v. Jets||29-22||Win||100||27 h 46 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the Houston Texans.
|12-13-18||Chargers +3.5 v. Chiefs||29-28||Win||100||66 h 56 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the LA Chargers. The Chiefs offense has been flying high all season, but they come into Thursday's home game against the Chargers a little banged up. They lost one of their most dangerous weapons when they released Kareem Hunt, and Spencer Ware has been pretty mediocre filling his place. Now they might not even have Ware or Sammy Watkins for this game, and if my memory serves me correctly I seem to recall Tyreek Hill limping off the field with a sprained ankle in overtime on Sunday. The Chargers defense has been solid all year, and they rank in the Top 10 in the league versus the pass, allowing just 225 yards per game. The Chargers have covered the spread in four straight road games, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven head to head meetings. I think the home team is asked to cover a few too many points here and the line should be closer to a pickem. My money is on the visitors plus the 3.5. Take LAC. GL,
|12-10-18||Vikings +3.5 v. Seahawks||Top||7-21||Loss||-110||152 h 7 m||Show|
This is a 10* GOY play on the Vikings.
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs -7||24-27||Loss||-106||157 h 59 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
|12-06-18||Jaguars +5.5 v. Titans||9-30||Loss||-108||9 h 60 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the Jags. There has been a lot of talk about the Titans run stuffing defense, but their 305 lb defensive tackle Jurrell Casey has been banged up. That might explain why they gave up 156 rushing yards against the Jets on Sunday, and a whopping 281 rushing yards in Houston in their previous game. Leonard Fournette has been a beast, running for 95 yards in each of his last two starts, despite the fact that the Jags lost both those games. With Cody Kessler at quarterback, we should see Fournette get plenty of touches tonight. GL, Jesse Schule
|12-02-18||Vikings v. Patriots -4||10-24||Win||100||54 h 43 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the Patriots.
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +7.5||10-13||Win||100||91 h 9 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys. I bet against the Saints (as crazy as that sounds) on Thanksgiving, and they crushed the Falcons by a score of 31-17. The final score doesn't paint an accurate picture though, as Atlanta actually had more yards (366-312) and more first downs (18-9). The fact of the matter is that Atlanta fumbled the ball three times, and if it wasn't for all the turnovers the game might have been a hell of a lot closer. Here is what I said about the Saints: "The Saints have won nine in a row, and they are ranked #1 overall in all of the NFL Power Rankings. They have won four in a row by a double digit margin, and right now they appear to be indestructible. As strange as it sounds, that's often when a team is at it's most vulnerable. They will be an enormous favorite at home versus the Falcons this week, in a rematch of a thrilling 43-37 barn burner in Atlanta earlier this year. Drew Brees tied the game with a last minute TD forcing overtime, and then he walked it off with a 1 yard rushing TD a few minutes into the overtime period." Now New Orleans is more than a TD favorite on the road? I'll fade the chalk on Thursday night! Take DAL. GL,
|11-25-18||Seahawks +3.5 v. Panthers||30-27||Win||100||114 h 52 m||Show|
|11-22-18||Falcons +13.5 v. Saints||17-31||Loss||-115||43 h 40 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints have won nine in a row, and they are ranked #1 overall in all of the NFL Power Rankings. They have won four in a row by a double digit margin, and right now they appear to be indestructible. As strange as it sounds, that's often when a team is at it's most vulnerable. They will be an enormous favorite at home versus the Falcons this week, in a rematch of a thrilling 43-37 barn burner in Atlanta earlier this year. Drew Brees tied the game with a last minute TD forcing overtime, and then he walked it off with a 1 yard rushing TD a few minutes into the overtime period. The Falcons were so close to winning that game, yet the bookmakers are saying that they can't even come within two TDs here in New Orleans. Atlanta is 4-6 overall, but only two of their six losses came by more than a TD. They lost on the final play against Dallas last week, lost by a single point to the Bengals, and lost by six in their season opener at Philly. I'll take the points here with an Atlanta team that is capable of keeping up in a high scoring game. Take ATL. GL,
|11-22-18||Redskins v. Cowboys -7||23-31||Win||100||45 h 21 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys got their swagger back after beating the Eagles in Philly, and the Falcons in Atlanta. Now they are back home where they are 4-1 this season, hosting the Redskins and their backup quarterback. Colt McCoy was 6-of-12 for 54 yards in the loss to Houston last week, and he's making his first start since 2014. He's 32 years old, which is still young for a quarterback, but riding the pine for the last four years might make him a little rusty. He will be under heavy pressure, facing the Cowboys Top 10 ranked defense. The injury to Alex Smith isn't the only issue the Redskins have to deal with, they are also banged up on the offensive line, and thin at RB. With Chris Thompson out, they will lean heavily on a 33 year old Adrian Peterson who is bothered by a sore shoulder. Washington has been doing it with smoke and mirrors the last few weeks, and they are like a broken team being held together by duct tape. Things should begin to unravel here in Big D. Take DAL. GL, Jesse Schule
|11-18-18||Vikings +3 v. Bears||Top||20-25||Loss||-122||154 h 30 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have looked really good this season, coming into this weekend's home game against the Vikings with a 6-3 record, sitting first in the NFC North. The Vikings are hot on their heels, and at 5-3-1 they have navigated a much tougher schedule. Two of those three losses came against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the league (Saints and Rams). Coming off a bye week, Minnesota is as healthy as it has been all year. Dalvin Cook is back, and he had over 100 yards from scrimmage in the win over Detroit. Minnesota has had success on the road, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The most significant number to me is ZERO! That's the number of wins Chicago has versus teams with a winning record this season. The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 versus teams with a winning record. Take MIN. GL,
|11-11-18||Seahawks +11.5 v. Rams||31-36||Win||100||160 h 52 m||Show|
|11-11-18||Dolphins v. Packers -9.5||Top||12-31||Win||100||134 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 10* GOM play on the Green Bay Packers. The Packers gave the Rams all they bargained for in LA, and then they went toe to toe with the Patriots at Foxboro. They went into the fourth quarter of last week's game tied 17-17, but the Pats scored two late TDs to make a close game look like a blowout. They return home looking to extend their perfect home record, hosting the Miami Dolphins. The Fish are coming off a 13-6 home win over the Jets, but they weren't all that impressive in that game. They were out-gained by 114 yards (282-168). Brock Osweiler failed to throw for a TD in his second consecutive game, totaling 139 yards on 15-of-24 passing in the win over the Jets. It's not like they can lean on their running game, as they have scored an NFL worst three rushing TDs. A cold weather game at Lambeau Field looks like a tough spot for a Miami team with a serious lack of talent. Take GB. GL, Jesse Schule
|11-11-18||Bills +9.5 v. Jets||41-10||Win||100||157 h 44 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have looked like the worst team in the NFL for most of the season, but I still can't see how anyone would justify betting on the Jets favored by more than a TD in what looks like a battle of the bottom feeders. It should be a rather meaningless game played in bad weather, and neither of these teams have much of an offense. Sam Darnold is really struggling, but he's still probably better than Nathan Peterman. The Bills will hope that either Josh Allen or Derek Anderson can start this week. The favorite has only covered the spread once in the last six meetings between these teams, and the Jets have only averaged 11 points per game during their three game losing streak. I'll take the points here against a Jets team that ranks 28th in the NFL in passing. Take BUF. GL,
|11-05-18||Titans v. Cowboys -4.5||28-14||Loss||-108||10 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the Dallas Cowboys. The Boys have gotten a lot of negative press this year, as fans have only recently come to terms with the fact that Dak Prescott is an average at best quarterback. This is not news to me, as I had been saying it since he was named the starter. That being said, Dallas is still a solid team with a stud running back and a better than average defense. They are 0-4 on the road and 3-0 at home, and that's a trend that seems destined to hold true tonight. The Titans are playing their first game since losing in heart-breaking fashion in London, when they missed a two-point conversion in a 20-19 loss to the Chargers. Tennessee has lost three straight, and three of four on the road this season. The Titans are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye week, and 11-23 ATS in their last 34 road games. Take DAL. GL, Jesse Schule
|11-04-18||Packers v. Patriots -5||Top||17-31||Win||100||96 h 44 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots. The Patriots and the Packers each came into this season as favorites to win the Super Bowl, but while New England is right where they were expected to be heading into Week 9, the Packers are done. The trades sending Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Ty Montgomery to Baltimore and Washington have some suggesting that the Packers are throwing in the towel. It might be a little too soon to give up on Green Bay when you consider that they are just one game out of first place in the NFC North. That being said, with three of their next four games coming on the road to teams with a winning record, it's hard to see them making up any ground. They are 0-3 on the road, and they have given up a whopping 90 points in their last three games. Aaron Rodgers can only do so much, and he doesn't have the supporting cast to win a battle versus Brady and Belichick at Foxboro. The Patriots are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 home games. Take NE. GL,
|11-04-18||Lions v. Vikings -4.5||9-24||Win||100||54 h 52 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Vikings. The Vikes are coming off a home loss to the New Orleans Saints, snapping a three game winning streak. They host the Detroit Lions Sunday, and Detroit will be without leading wide receiver Golden Tate who was dealt to Philly at the trade deadline. The Vikings have three losses on the season, and two of those came against the Rams and the Saints who have a combined record of 14-1. The other loss was an inexplicable 27-6 home loss to Buffalo. Kirk Cousins ranks second in the NFL in passing behind Patrick Mahomes, and he has better than a 70 percent completion percentage, with 16 TDs and just four INTs. This Minnesota team came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and they desperately need a win here at home to get back on track. The Lions are 1-2 on the road this season, and both losses came against teams with a losing record. I like Minny to win big here in this spot. Take MIN. GL,
|11-04-18||Bucs v. Panthers -6||28-42||Win||100||3 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 7* play on the Carolina Panthers. It's like Deja Vu All Over Again? Ryan Fitzpatrick came in last week and nearly upset the Bengals, engineering a stunning second half comeback. Remember the last time Tampa fans were excited about Fitzpatrick starting a game? They lost 48-10 at Chicago, and Fitzpatrick was pulled after throwing for 126 yards and an INT in the first half. Here is what I said prior to that game: "The Bucs are 2-0, and fans are buzzing about "Fitzmagic". I have seen enough of Ryan Fitzpatrick over the years that I know it would be naive to think he's going to be magical every week" The Bucs are badly in need of some "magic" on defense, as they come into today's game ranked dead last in the NFL allowing 33.3 points per game. This game has "BLOWOUT" written all over it! Take CAR. GL,
|10-28-18||Saints v. Vikings +3||30-20||Loss||-122||1 h 29 m||Show|
This is a 5* play on the Vikes.
The Vikings defense hasn't been as good this year as it was when they beat New Orleans 29-19 in Week 1 last year. They also won a thriller in the playoffs, winning on a walkoff TD by Stephan Diggs making it 29-24 (still less than 55 points). That game likely should have finished 24-23 if it wasn't for a miracle 61 yard play. Minnesota got off to a good start in that game, taking a 17-0 lead to the locker room at halftime. I expect to see them play well here at home, especially given that Kirk Cousins comes in with a 70 percent completion percentage and a 14-3 TD/INT ratio. I like Minny as a home dog.
|10-28-18||Packers v. Rams -8.5||27-29||Loss||-110||51 h 48 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the LAR.
The Packers came into this season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. I was never buying that, as Aaron Rodgers has battled injuries for most of the past three seasons, and aside from the quarterback position, Green Bay is seriously lacking talent. Their defense was lit up in a rather ugly home win over the Niners two weeks ago. They are in tough this week playing on the road at LA, the last of the league's unbeaten teams. While some might think that a bye week is going to give the Packers a chance to record an upset, I simply believe this team isn't even close to being a true Super Bowl contender. I am looking for Todd Gurley to run all over Green Bay, all day long.
|10-28-18||Bucs v. Bengals -4||34-37||Loss||-108||135 h 15 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are coming off a blowout loss at Kansas City, but they return home to face the league's worst defense. The Bucs won in overtime at home against the Browns, but they really didn't deserve to win that game. They were lucky to hit a 59 yard FG after the Browns missed several chances to win the game. Losing LB Kwon Alexander isn't going to help matters for the Bucs, who have allowed a league worst 32.7 points per game this season. I am looking for the Red Rifle and the Cinci offense to have a field day.
|10-28-18||Jets v. Bears -6.5||10-24||Win||100||135 h 15 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Bears.
|10-21-18||Browns +3.5 v. Bucs||23-26||Win||100||121 h 21 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns.
|10-14-18||Rams v. Broncos +7||Top||23-20||Win||100||134 h 37 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on Denver.
The Broncos aren't rolling over for anybody at home in Mile High Stadium. We saw that two weeks ago when the Broncos held a 10-point advantage in the fourth quarter versus the Kansas City Chiefs. While Kansas City rallied to win that game, it was a lot closer than some might have expected. This week the Rams will travel to Denver, and they are asked to cover even more points than the Chiefs. The Rams have been impressive on offense, but they gave up 31 points to the Vikings and the Seahawks in each of their last two games. LA has yet to be punished for their poor play on defense, coming into Sunday's game with a 5-0 record and the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl. This looks like a bit of a tricky spot though, and asking them to cover more than a TD seems a little overly optimistic. I'll take Denver plus the points.
|10-14-18||Panthers v. Redskins||17-23||Win||100||131 h 32 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. Washington looked brutal in a blowout loss to the Saints on Monday night, but that game might say more about the Saints than it does about the Skins. They host Carolina this week, and the Panthers are coming off a lucky win over the Giants at home. New York rallied from a 20-10 deficit to go ahead 31-30 with just over a minute to play, but a 63 yard FG (YES 63 YARDS) by Graham Gano allowed the Panthers to steal the game on the final play. Washington is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, and they have covered the spread in six of their last seven when coming off a loss. Carolina on the other hand has failed to cover in four straight when coming off a win. I'll take the home favorite here in Washington. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
|10-08-18||Redskins +7 v. Saints||Top||19-43||Loss||-120||163 h 23 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins. The Bye Week came at a great time for Washington, allowing several key players to rest up and recover from lingering injuries. Adrian Peterson suffered an ankle injury in Washington's 31-17 win over Green Bay two weeks ago, but still he ran for 120 yards and two TDs in that game. He's surely looking forward to having a chance to stick it to the Saints. Sean Payton signed Peterson prior to last season, and then let him rot on the bench, refusing to give him an opportunity. He then went to Arizona, and has since averaged 76 rushing yards per game in nine starts for Arizona and now Washington. He's averaging a TD per game so far this season, and I expect him to keep that average up. Drew Brees is going to break another record tonight, and Mark Ingram returns from a suspension. The Superdome was once considered the toughest place in the NFL to play, and bookmakers are still giving New Orleans a lot of love at home. When you consider that the Saints were blown out by the Bucs at home in Week 1, that they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and six straight versus the Skins, the spread for tonight's game appears to be greatly inflated. Take WAS. GL,
|10-07-18||Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans||16-19||Win||100||18 h 47 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Everyone is talking about how bad the Cowboys are, but is Houston really good enough to be favored by 3.5 points against anyone? I don't think so. The Texans first win of the season came at home in overtime against the Colts last week, and they blew an 11 point lead in the second half of that game. Dak Prescott was never as good as he was hyped up to be in his rookie season, but he doesn't need to be great when he has Ezekiel Elliot to hand off to. Dallas ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing behind Cleveland and Denver. Houston has failed to cover in eight of it's last nine overall, and four of it's last five home games. I'll take the points here because I just don't think the Texans should be asked to cover more than a FG.
|10-07-18||Rams v. Seahawks +8.5||33-31||Win||100||14 h 56 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Rams come into Seattle as favorites to win the Super Bowl, but I think this game could be a lot tougher than some think. This division rivalry has been ultra competitive over the last decade. The Rams have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 visits to the Emerald City. Home field advantage has been more significant in Seattle than in most other cities, and the 12th man is still going strong. The home team has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Russell Wilson is still one of the league's best quarterbacks, and after the Rams gave up 422 passing yards and three passing TDs in last week's win over the Vikings, I like Seattle's chances of keeping this close.
|10-07-18||Ravens v. Browns +3||9-12||Win||105||2 h 9 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on Cleveland.
The Baltimore Ravens come into Cleveland with a 3-1 record, tied with Cincinnati for 1st in the AFC North. They are coming off an impressive 27-10 win at Pittsburgh, but I think that sets them up for a let down here in Cleveland. The Browns have just one win in four games, but have yet to lose by more than three points. They have to feel as though they were robbed in a 45-42 loss at Oakland. The officials missed a fumble in overtime that would have given the Browns possesion. Baker Mayfield has the offense firing on all cylinders, scoring 60 points in their last six quarters of football. He was picked off twice last week, but neither of those INTs were his fault, as the ball popped out of the recievers hands into the hands of the defenders. I'll take the points with the home underdog here in this game.
|10-01-18||Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5||27-23||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos. The Kansas City Chiefs come into Denver as heavy favorites, but I am not ready to completely buy into all the hype. Sure Patrick Mahomes has been lighting it up, but this is a tough road game at Mile High in Denver. The rookie made his debut as a starter in the Chiefs final game of last season here in Denver. He threw for 284 yards and an INT on 22-of-35 passing in a 27-24 win. The Chiefs have won five straight against Denver, and the total has gone over in six straight. The total for tonight's game is almost 20 points higher than it was in last year's game. One reason for the high total is the fact that the Chiefs rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense allowing 30.7 points per game this season. I'll fade what I consider to be an overvalued road favorite, and an inflated total. GL,
|09-30-18||Bengals +3.5 v. Falcons||37-36||Win||100||4 h 9 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are coming off a 31-21 loss at Carolina, and that was the lowest score of any of their games this season. They have scored an average of 29.7 points per game, and Andy Dalton has passed for an average of 287 yards per game. This Cincinnati offense should be primed for a big day against an Atlanta team that has been hit hard by injuries to several key defenders. Drew Brees threw for 396 yards and three scores in a 43-37 come from behind win at Atlanta last week, and safety Ricardo Allen was carted off with a torn Achilles. The Bengals secondary is also banged up, with three corner backs listed as questionable. Both teams are expected to be without their top RB, which provides even more incentive to lean on the passing game. The Falcons have gone over in 15 of their last 21 home games, and the Bengals have gone over in four straight overall. I like the Bengals plus the points. Take Cinci. GL, Jesse Schule
|09-27-18||Vikings +7 v. Rams||31-38||Push||0||41 h 15 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings didn't show up last Sunday, and the Buffalo Bills made them pay for it. They won't have to wait long for a chance at redemption, playing just five days later on the road at LA. The Chargers are Super Bowl favorites, but this looks like a tough spot for the home team. Injuries to several key defenders might open the door for Kirk Cousins to have a big game. History certainly favors the Vikings, as they have won five straight meetings versus the Rams. LA was the favorite in two of those five games. Previous meetings between these teams have been high scoring, especially in LA where six of the last seven have gone over the total. The Vikings were bailed out by a questionable roughing the passer penalty in Green Bay in Week 2, and given what we saw on Monday night, questionable penalties might continue to be an issue. I'll take the Vikings plus the points. GL,
|09-24-18||Steelers +1.5 v. Bucs||30-27||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers come into Tampa Bay looking for their first win, but there are a long list of controversies plaguing this team. It's time for Big Ben and company to put up or shut up. This is it, do or die. They know their chances of coming back from an 0-2-1 hole aren't great. They know that the only way that people will stop asking questions about locker room issues will be to put a "W" on the board. The Bucs are 2-0, and fans are buzzing about "Fitzmagic". I have seen enough of Ryan Fitzpatrick over the years that I know it would be naive to think he's going to be magical every week. The Bucs are in danger of being humbled here at home by a desperate Steelers team. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule
|09-23-18||Patriots -6.5 v. Lions||10-26||Loss||-103||103 h 8 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots. New England is coming off an ugly 31-20 loss at Jacksonville, but they are in a good spot to bounce back with a convincing win here in Detroit on Sunday night. The Lions are coming off a 30-27 loss at San Francisco, but it would be a mistake to assume that was a close game. It was 30-17 halfway through the fourth quarter, and Detroit scored twice in garbage time. Former New England assistant Matt Patricia may have bitten off more than he can chew, leaving the Patriots to become the head coach in Detroit. Lions fans are already calling for heads to roll after a dismal start. The Pats have won their last four versus the Lions, all four of those games decided by at least seven points. My money is on a big bounce back for Belichick and Brady. Take NE. GL, Jesse Schule
|09-23-18||Packers v. Redskins +3.5||17-31||Win||100||96 h 50 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. The Packers looked pretty bad in a Week 1 win over the Bears, needing to rally from a 17-0 halftime deficit. Then they opened up a 20-7 lead on the Vikings at home in Week 2, only to blow it and ended up settling for a tie 29-29. Aaron Rodgers has been playing hurt with a sprained knee, and he will not be 100 percent here in Washington. Rodgers has always been better at home, and Green Bay is just 7-9 straight up in their last 16 road games. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five head to head meetings, and I like the Skins plus the points at home. Washington actually out-gained Indy 334-281 last week, but they were hurt by costly penalties. Alex Smith could have a big day against a questionable Packers defense. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule
|09-16-18||Giants +3.5 v. Cowboys||13-20||Loss||-112||158 h 38 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Giants.
Neither of these two NFC East teams looked like playoff contenders in Week 1, but the Giants defense did look pretty solid. Saquon Barkley also showed signs of living up to all the hype, and in a division game between two teams that have a history of playing close games, I'll take the dog. Six of the last 10 meetings between these teams have been decided by five points or less, including two games decided by just one point. The Giants have covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings, and the Cowboys have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games. I expect this game to be close, but the Giants look closer to being a contender in my opinion, so I'll take the points.
|09-16-18||Raiders v. Broncos -5.5||19-20||Loss||-100||101 h 12 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos led 17-10 at halftime in their Week 1 win over the Seahawks, and they look good in Week 2 against Oakland. Case Keenum had a huge game, throwing for 339 yards and three TDs on 25-of-39 passing. The Raiders looked pretty bad in their Week 1 home loss to the Rams, and Derek Carr really struggled. He threw for 303 yards on 29-of-40 passing with no TDs and three INTs. The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games, and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Mile High Stadium. The home team has won four straight in this series.
|09-16-18||Vikings +2 v. Packers||Top||29-29||Win||100||150 h 17 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were one win away from going to the Super Bowl last year, and that was after losing their starting quarterback and leading rusher Dalvin Cook. Their success was a testament to just how good they are on defense, ranking 1st overall in total yards, 2nd against the pass and 2nd in quarterback sacks. With an upgrade at quarterback and a healthy Cook in the backfield, Minnesota is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. They face the Packers in Green Bay in Week 2, and Aaron Rodgers is expected to be playing with a sprained knee. Rodgers was knocked out of last year's 23-10 loss at Minnesota, and ended up missing the Packers final nine games of the season. He engineered a miraculous comeback against the Bears last week, but the Packers defense wasn't very impressive. The Bears averaged over 5 yards per carry, and led 17-0 at halftime. Erasing a 20 point deficit against the Bears is one thing, but if they fall behind the Vikings I don't like their chances of pulling off another comeback. Take MIN. GL,
|09-16-18||Browns v. Saints -8.5||18-21||Loss||-110||98 h 48 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Saints.
My biggest bet in Week 1 was on the Browns +7 at home versus Cleveland, and I had that bet circled since the beginning of the summer. The Browns are no doubt going to be better this year than they were in 2017, but I wasn't impressed with their Week 1 tie versus the Steelers. When you really look at the stats, the Steelers turned the ball over six times, and they still had 472 total yards of offense. Without the turnover advantage the Browns would have been blown out. The Saints were unimpressive in their Week 1 home loss to Tampa, but I think they will be far better here in Week 2.
|09-13-18||Ravens v. Bengals +1.5||23-34||Win||100||86 h 38 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals offense was firing on all cylinders in a Week 1 win at Indianapolis, and I like Cinci as a home dog on Thursday night versus Baltimore. Andy Dalton threw for 243 yards and two TDs on 21-of-28 passing. AJ Green had six receptions for 92 yards and a TD and Joe Mixon had 149 total yards with a TD. With everyone healthy and playing at the top of their game, this Cincinnati offense is one of the best in the league. I am not sure we learned much about Baltimore in their 47-3 home win over Buffalo in Week 1. The Ravens haven't had a lot of success at Cincinnati in recent seasons, losing four of their last five visits. They are 3-7 straight up in the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 at Cincinnati. The Bengals won 31-27 at Baltimore last year, and AJ Green didn't play in that game. I am not sold on Baltimore as a road favorite here. Take CIN. GL,
|09-09-18||Bears +9 v. Packers||23-24||Win||100||106 h 30 m||Show|
|09-09-18||Steelers v. Browns +7||Top||21-21||Win||100||2782 h 43 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. I had this game circled back in the beginning of the summer, and since then the money has really come in on the Browns. While it's been a long time since the Browns have actually won a game, they are expected to be a lot better here in 2018. Tyrod Taylor might not be your favorite quarterback, but he's a pretty solid bet as an underdog when you are looking to cover the points as a home dog. Taylor's biggest asset is his dependability, protecting the football and not making many costly mistakes. In a rivalry that has seen three straight games decided by four points or less, an improved Browns team at home getting points is quite attractive. The Le'Veon Bell situation has gone from bad to worse, with members of the offensive line publicly blasting Bell for putting himself above the team. The Steelers have failed to cover in five of their last seven season openers, and I think they'll have their hands full here in Cleveland. Take CLE. GL,
|09-09-18||49ers v. Vikings -6||16-24||Win||100||124 h 38 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were one win away from going to the Super Bowl last year, and that was after losing their starting quarterback and leading rusher Dalvin Cook. Their success was a testament to just how good they are on defense, ranking 1st overall in total yards, 2nd against the pass and 2nd in quarterback sacks. With an upgrade at quarterback and a healthy Cook in the backfield, Minnesota is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. They play their home opener against San Francisco, and the 49ers are optimistic about the future since bringing in Jimmy G. I don't think San Francisco has anything to be optimistic about here in Week 1, and I expect it to be a long day for Garoppolo. Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams. Take MIN. GL,
|09-09-18||Bengals +3 v. Colts||34-23||Win||100||124 h 37 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Colts are hoping to be better with Andrew Luck back at quarterback, I am not sure they have surrounded him with enough talent. This team was 4-12 last year, and they lost leading rusher Frank Gore, and three of their top receivers. The Colts ranked 30th in total defense last season, and losing their best defensive player, nose tackle Johnathan Hankins isn't going to help. They were 31st in sacks last year, and if they can't pressure the quarterback they will leave their inexperienced secondary exposed. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green could have a field day here at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games in September. Take CINCI. GL,
|09-06-18||Falcons +3 v. Eagles||12-18||Loss||-125||59 h 59 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles begin their Super Bowl defense at home on Thursday night, against a Falcons team that they beat in the Divisional round of last year's playoffs. The Falcons were just two yards away from a last minute go ahead TD in that game, losing 15-10. Nick Foles was solid, throwing for 246 yards on 23-of-30 passing. Foles was outstanding in last year's playoffs, but I think it might be a little naive to think that the Eagles won't miss Carson Wentz. We've seen six years of data that suggests Nick Foles is nothing more than a backup quarterback. His last season as a starter was rather unimpressive, completing just 56 percent of his passes with 7 TDs an 10 INTs in 11 starts for the Rams in 2015. Prior to that he started eight games for Philly, completing 59 percent of his passes with 13 TDs and 10 INTs. He looked a lot more like that guy during the pre-season. Matt Ryan followed up his 2016 MVP campaign with a disappointing 2017 season. That came as no surprise, as the Super Bowl Hangover is well documented. It's Philly's turn to suffer the dreaded post Super Bowl slump. Take ATL. GL,
|01-21-18||Jaguars v. Patriots -9||20-24||Loss||-105||146 h 25 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots.
There has been a lot of rumors flying around regarding the health of Tom Brady, who reportedly suffered a hand injury in practice mid week. I'll take a banged up Brady over Blake Bortles any day. Last week the Jaguars were helped by a handful of poor coaching decisions by the Steelers, but they can't rely on superior strategy here at Foxboro. I expect Bill Belichick to have more than a few tricks up his sleeve. The fact that the Jags have won back to back playoff games has masked just how poorly Blake Bortles has actually played. He's only thrown for 301 yards and two TDs on just over 50 percent passing in those games. He's missed a ton of short passes to wide open receivers all season long, and that has continued to haunt him in these playoffs. Leonard Fournette comes in after suffering an ankle injury last week, and he's likely not quite 100 percent. The Patriots defense stuffed the run last week, holding Derrick Henry to 28 yards on 12 carries. New England has covered the spread in five straight home playoff games, and I expect another double digit win for the defending champs here on Sunday.
|01-07-18||Panthers v. Saints -5.5||Top||26-31||Loss||-115||150 h 54 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. The Saints gave up 11 points in the final five minuted to blow a 24-20 lead in Tampa last week. The result didn't matter, because Carolina lost to Atlanta, and New Orleans clinched the NFC South. The Panthers did not look great in their 22-10 loss to the Falcons, and Cam Newton threw three interceptions while throwing for just 180 yards and a TD on 14-of-34 passing. As bad as those numbers are, that has been the norm for Cam Newton this year. He's failed to throw for 200 yards in five of his last six games. He's been bothered by a shoulder injury that has kept him from practicing this week. The Panthers lost to the Saints twice during the regular season, and Cam threw for just 340 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs on 34-of-53 passing. The Saints have won seven straight home games, including a double digit win over Carolina. The Panthers have failed to cover in six straight against New Orleans, and they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 versus the NFC South. The Saints are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take NO. GL,
|01-07-18||Bills +7.5 v. Jaguars||3-10||Win||100||145 h 22 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills.
|01-06-18||Falcons v. Rams -5.5||Top||26-13||Loss||-108||128 h 22 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the LA Rams. The Atlanta Falcons are limping into the playoffs, looking nothing like the team that went all the way to the Super Bowl a year ago. Matt Ryan is struggling, throwing as many picks (4) as TDs in his last five starts. He will face a Rams defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in quarterback sacks with 48. While the Falcons played a tough, hard fought game against Carolina just to get into the playoffs, the Rams rested their starters last week against San Francisco. Todd Gurley racked up 280 yards and three TDs on 43 carries in his last two starts, and he's likely to get a heavy workload here on Wildcard Weekend. Julio Jones took a big hit in the win over Carolina, and his status for Saturday is listed as questionable with injuries to his ankle and ribs. Devonta Freeman is expected to play despite suffering a knee injury. The Rams led the NFL in scoring during the regular season, averaging over 29 points per game. LA looks a lot more like last year's Falcons than the current version of this Atlanta team. If Matt Ryan plays like he has the last several weeks, this game will be over in a hurry. Take LAR. GL,
|12-31-17||Chiefs v. Broncos -3||27-24||Loss||-120||99 h 47 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos.
|12-31-17||Browns +12 v. Steelers||24-28||Win||100||95 h 19 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns.
|12-25-17||Steelers v. Texans +10||34-6||Loss||-116||171 h 46 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
The Texans have lost four straight, but last week they were crushed in a 45-7 loss at Jacksonville. After the game reporters asked Jadeveon Clowney: "Are they really that much better than you?". Clowney was left speechless, and could only shake his head. I don't think the Texans want to face similar questions this week, playing at home on Christmas Day versus the Steelers. Pittsburgh is coming off a massive loss to New England, and the potential game winning score was overruled by replay officials. This looks like a classic let down spot for Pittsburgh, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries. Antonio Brown is sidelined for the rest of the year, and might be able to return for the playoffs. The Steelers have already clinched the AFC North, so they don't have a lot to gain in these final two games. Their top priority should be to keep their top players healthy, and that might mean cutting back on the workload for players like LeVeon Bell. The Steelers have won eight of their last 10 games, but they only won once by double digits during that span. They won close games to inferior teams such as Green Bay and Indianapolis. Playing on the road on Christmas Day with questionable motivation, I expect a half-hearted effort from Pittsburgh here. The Texans are 3-3 in their last six home games, and not one of those losses came by more than 10 points.
Take HOU. GL,
|12-24-17||Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5||Top||21-12||Loss||-114||139 h 31 m||Show|
|12-24-17||Rams v. Titans +7||27-23||Win||100||144 h 51 m||Show|
|12-24-17||Falcons v. Saints -5.5||13-23||Win||100||144 h 47 m||Show|
This is a 9* play on the New Orleans Saints.
|12-18-17||Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs||24-21||Loss||-110||14 h 46 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bucs host the Falcons on Monday Night, and this game will feature a pair of struggling quarterbacks. Jameis Winston threw for 285 yards and a pair of TDs on 26-of-38 passing in a loss to Detroit last week, but he was picked off twice and lost a fumble in that game. He's 0-5 in his last five starts, and he's thrown seven TD passes and five picks during that span. He's facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 3rd in the league against the pass, in a game that the Falcons need to win. Matt Ryan is also struggling, he completed just 55% of his passes for 221 yards with one TD and three INTs against the Saints last week. The Falcons still managed to win that game, and one of the reasons for that is that they have one of the NFL's most talented running back duos. Tampa ranks 23rd in the NFL against the run, and the Falcons ran all over them a few weeks ago. I expect another strong performance from Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman here tonight. The Falcons own Monday Night Football, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday night games. The Bucs have failed to cover in five straight against divisional opponents.
|12-17-17||Rams +1 v. Seahawks||42-7||Win||100||158 h 18 m||Show|
|12-17-17||Ravens v. Browns +7.5||27-10||Loss||-115||39 h 34 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns. The 0-13 Browns appeared to be well on their way to earning their first "W" of the season last week, but the Packers tied the game with 17 seconds left of the clock, and went on to win in overtime. The Baltimore Ravens suffered a similar fate in Pittsburgh, blowing a double digit lead in the fourth quarter of a 39-38 loss. The Ravens beat Cleveland by a score of 24-10 at home earlier this season, but Cleveland out-gained them 386-337 in total yards. The Ravens have won their last three games at Cleveland, but all three of those wins came in games decided by less than seven points. Josh Gordon doesn't look like a guy that hasn't played football for three years. He's caught seven passes for 154 yards and a TD in two games back. Deshone Kizer had his best game of the season last week, throwing for 214 yards and three TDs on 20-of-28 passing against the Packers, but was also picked off twice. Cleveland's defense has been surprisingly good, ranking 12th in total defense allowing 328.5 yards per game. History tells us that these two teams play close games, and I expect another hard fought battle in bad weather in Cleveland on Sunday. Take CLE. GL,
|12-16-17||Chargers +1 v. Chiefs||13-30||Loss||-110||139 h 50 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the LA Chargers.
The Chargers are on a roll, coming into KC as winners of four straight, and seven of their last nine. I bet on LA last week in their 30-13 home win over the Washington Redskins. Here is what I had to say before the kickoff: "Philip Rivers and the Chargers are back in business after winning six of their last eight games. They are locked in a three way tie for first in the ACF West, with Kansas City and Oakland also at 6-6. The Chargers control their own destiny, with a game against the Chiefs at Arrowhead next week, and a home game against the Raiders in their season finale. Rivers has thrown eight TD passes and just one INT in his last four starts. He's coming off a pair of 300+ yard games against Dallas and Cleveland." Rivers threw for 319 yards and two TDsin the win over Washington. The Chiefs have lost six of their last eight overall, and two of those losses came at home. Last week's win over an Oakland team in disarray does little to convince me that they have solved all of their problems. Alex Smith threw for 268 yards and an INT on 20-of-34 passing, and was sacked four times in the win over Oakland. He faces the league's 3rd ranked pass defense on Saturday, and the Chargers rank 5th in the NFL with 37 quarterback sacks.
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins +12||20-27||Win||100||21 h 58 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Miami Dolphins.
The Patriots will play at Miami on Monday Night, but they could be looking ahead to next Sunday's game against the Steelers. A win would put them level with Pittsburgh at 11-2, setting up a massive game to decide who finishes with the best record in the AFC, securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The good news for New England is, Rob Gronkowski will be well rested for the game against Pittsburgh, as he serves a 1-game suspension this week. They could be thin in the backfield with both Mike Gillislee and Dion Lewis possibly out due to illness. The Dolphins are coming off an impressive 35-9 win over the Broncos. Jay Cutler threw for 235 yards and a pair of TDs, while Kenyan Drake ran for 120 yards and a TD on 23 carries. Cutler didn't play in a 35-17 loss at New England a few weeks ago, and the Dolphins last two losses in this series came with their backup quarterback under center. Prior to that they lost at New England last September by a score of 31-24, and they won outright in three straight home meetings versus the Pats. The home team has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. I'll take the points.
|12-10-17||Ravens +5 v. Steelers||Top||38-39||Win||100||16 h 23 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.
|12-10-17||Redskins v. Chargers -6||13-30||Win||100||123 h 26 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the LA Chargers.
|12-04-17||Steelers v. Bengals +6||23-20||Win||100||15 h 11 m||Show|
|11-23-17||Chargers +1 v. Cowboys||Top||28-6||Win||100||77 h 48 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on the LA Chargers.
|11-23-17||Vikings v. Lions +3||30-23||Loss||-105||25 h 27 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions.
The Vikings are sitting in first place in the NFC North with an 8-2 record, but I am still a skeptic. This is a team that lost both it's starting quarterback and it's leading rusher early in the year. Veteran backup Case Keenum has done a terrific job, and Latavius Murray and Jerrick McKinnon have done a decent job filling in for Dalvin Cook. But when I look at Minnesota's schedule, I see wins against Cleveland, Tampa, Baltimore, Chicago and Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers. They lost at home to Detroit in October, and now they come into the Motor City asked to cover a handful of points as a road favorite. I look at the Lions, and I see a team that is far better than it's 6-4 record. Three of those four losses came in one possession games, and that includes a controversial 30-26 loss to the Falcons, when Detroit's game winning TD was called back after video review. The Vikings have lost three straight versus the Lions, despite being favored to win in two of those three games. The underdog is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the two teams, and the Vikings have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 road games.
|11-12-17||Vikings v. Redskins +1.5||38-30||Loss||-115||75 h 58 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins.
Washington is just 4-4, but the Skins are coming off an impressive road win at Seattle. This could breath new life into a team that has faced plenty of adversity. The Vikings come into the nation's capital as a favorite, boasting a 6-2 record. You might remember that Minnesota was in a similar spot last seasons, and would go on to lose five of their final eight games, missing the playoffs. If we take a look at the Vikings schedule, it's tough to pick even one impressive win. Wins over the Bears, Browns, Bucs and Baltimore don't hold up to Washington's wins over the Seahawks in Seattle, the Rams in LA, and the Raiders at home. The Redskins have gotten several key players back from injury, and Kirk Cousins finally appears to be developing some chemistry with his new receiving corps. One would have thought that the Vikings would have been in trouble losing their starting quarterback Sam Bradford, and star running back Dalvin Cook. Case Keenum has overachieved, and I expect him to struggle here on the road in a hostile environment against a defense that is far better than the likes of Cleveland who he faced last week.
|11-12-17||Browns v. Lions -11.5||24-38||Win||100||75 h 39 m||Show|
|11-06-17||Lions v. Packers||Top||30-17||Win||100||183 h 18 m||Show|
|10-29-17||Falcons -4 v. Jets||25-20||Win||100||96 h 9 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. At 3-4 the Jets have been far more competitive than anybody thought they would be this season. We can't give them too much credit though, as their wins have come against the Browns, Dolphins and Jaguars. Atlanta's offense hasn't been as prolific as it was last year, but this week looks like a good spot for the Falcons to bust loose. The Jets pass defense has surrendered more yards than the Cleveland Browns this season, and in the past two games opponents have thrown for 583 yards and six TDs. Julio Jones is still the most dominant receiver in the game, and the Jets are going to have a tough time keeping him under wraps. "He's going to be a load," Jets head coach Todd Bowles said about Jones. "He's been triple-teamed and quadrupled. ... He's that great." This is a must win game for Atlanta, and with all the talent on both sides of the ball, they should prove to be too much to handle for a below average Jets team. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule
|10-23-17||Redskins v. Eagles -4.5||24-34||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|