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This is a 5* play on the Under.

Both the Conference Championship Games fell well short of the listed total, and there are plenty of signs we should expect a low score in the Super Bowl. The Eagles defense knocked out Brock Purdy early in the game, and held the 49ers to just seven points. Their offense was a run heavy attack, and we haven't seen much in the passing game since Jalen Hurts came back from a shoulder injury. The Chiefs defense sacked Joe Burrow five times, and picked him off twice. They held the Bengals to just 71 yards on the ground, and they rank 6th in the NFL in opponent rushing TDs. Patrick Mahomes was limited due to a high ankle sprain, and he might be less than 100 percent here even after two weeks.

GL,

Jesse Schule

SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD.

This is a 4* play on Under.

There is no doubt in my mind that Patrick Mahomes is going to play, but the question is how effective is he going to be. He wasn't too bad playing hurt last week, throwing for 195 yards and two TDs on 22-of-30 passing. He may not be able to extend plays with his legs, and that might result in a more conservative game plan from Andy Reid. This is a revenge spot for the Chiefs, after getting eliminated by the Bengals in a 27-24 OT home loss last January. There are a lot of trends pointing towards the under. The under is 26-10-3 in the Bengals last 39 road games, and the under is 12-3 in their last 15 games in January. These teams have gone under in five of the last six at Arrowhead.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under 45.5. 

The Niners have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they completely shut down Dallas last week. They are trying to become the first team in history to send a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. Mr Irrelevant looked pretty pedestrian against an elite Dallas defense. He threw for 219 yards on 19-of-29 passing, with no TDs or picks. The last time these teams played, San Francisco won 17-11 it Philly is September of last season. The under is 15-5-1 in Eagles last 21 playoff games, and the under is 12-3-1 in Eagles last 16 playoff home games. This should be a defensive battle. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Despite five turnovers against the Chargers last week, the Jags scored 31 points and erased a 27-0 deficit. Trevor Lawrence threw for 288 yards and four TDs on 28-of-47 passing in the comeback. He has his work cut out for him if he wants to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in passing (298 yds per game) and #1 in scoring averaging over 29 points per game. Kansas City doesn't have much of a running game, so we should see both teams air it out here. The over is 8-3 in Jaguars last 11 road games, and the Chiefs have gone over in 10 of their last 13 in the month of January.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

I can't take a side here, there's no way I trust either of these quarterbacks. Tom Brady has looked his age lately, throwing six INTs in his last four meaningful games. We won't count a meaningless game against Atlanta in the season finale. Dak Prescott has thrown eight picks in his last five starts, and his last game was a complete disaster. He threw for just 128 yards on 14-of-37 passing with a TD and an INT in a 26-6 loss to Washington. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven head to head meetings. I expect both coaches to be quite conservative, especially in the first half.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards and three TDs on 28-of-39 passing in a 38-10 win over the Chargers in LA in Week 3, but don't read too much into the fact that the Chargers were blown out in that game. Justin Herbert had broken ribs, and Keenan Allen didn't play. Despite all the injuries and dealing with adversity, Herbert still threw for almost 5,000 yards and 25 TDs this season. The Chargers boast the NFL's #3 ranked passing offense. Jacksonville won their final five games in the regular season, scoring an average of more than 29 points in those contests. The over is 6-1 in the last seven head to head meetings, and the Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus Jacksonville. I expect both teams to score their share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

The line has moved significantly due to the injury to Jalen Hurts. I am not convinced that the Eagles are much worse off with Minshew Mania at the helm. Gardner Minshew has completed over 63 percent of his passes for 41 TDs and a dozen INTs in his NFL career. Most of his playing time came with the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Now he steps in behind an elite offensive line, on the best team in the NFL. There is every reason to expect him to be successful, as least moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. These teams have gone over in four straight, and three straight in Dallas. The total came down several points after the news that Hurts wouldn't play, and I still expect the Eagles to score enough to get the total over the number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on over. 

The Vikings defense has given up 70 points in their last two games. Last week they trailed the Colts 33-0 at halftime, and came all the way back to win 39-36. They have now gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and it would be no surprise to see another high score here against the Giants. The Vikings have allowed an average of 28 points in their last seven home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Lions are 5-7, and yet they are favorite here at home against a 10-2 Minnesota team. Both these teams are playing their best football of late, each winnimng four of their last five games. The Lions rank dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 402 yards per game. Right behind them are the Vikings allowing 398 yards per game. The Lions lost 28-24 at Minnesota earlier this season, and last December they won 29-27 at Ford Field. The over is 11-5 in the Vikings last 16 road games, and the Lions have gone over in six of their last eight home games. The over is 4-1 in the Vikings last five at Detroit.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

Heading into the season we thought the duo of Derek Carr and Davante Adams would put up huge numbers. They got off to a slow start, but over the last five games Adams is averaging over 132 receiving yards per game. He also has seven TDs during that span. The Raiders come into LA as winners of three in a row, and they face a Rams defense decimated by injuries. Geno Smith threw for 367 yards and three TDs in LA on Sunday. Despite a lost season for the Rams, they were still competitive against Seattle. These games may just be an opportunity for players like Cam Akers and Van Jefferson to pad their stats. The Raiders 26th ranked defense allows 25 points per game, so there should be opportunities.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Under.

The last game played at Gillette Stadium saw the Patriots score just three points up until the final five seconds of regulation. They were quite fortunate that they held the Jets to just three points on just 103 yards of offense. They were even luckier to return a punt for a touchdown to walk the game off for the win. They host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, and both these teams boast Top 5 scoring defenses each allowing just 18 points per game. The weatherman says it's going to be cold with rain and wind (if you can trust the forecast several days out). The Pats have held opponents to three points or less in three of their last four games. I think 21 points will be enough to win this game

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

This is the last stand for the Packers this season. If they are going to save the season it has to happen here against Dallas. They get a home game in bad weather, normally an ideal spot for this team. I expect them to bring a ton of intensity on defense and lean on their running game. It's not clear if Aaron Rodgers can do anything with this receiving corps. The Cowboys have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 games in November. The under is 6-1 in the Packers last seven games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Patriots welcome back Mac Jones on Monday night at home against the Bears, despite the fact that their offense looked a lot better with Bailey Zappe under center. Jones has thrown for 786 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs on 66 percent passing this season. This isn't exactly a favorable matchup as the Bears rank among the best in the NFL against the pass allowing just over 170 yards per game. The good news for New England is that Chicago can't stop the run, allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. This should prompt Belicheck to pound the rock, burning the clock and slowing the game down. History favors the under, as the Patriots have gone under in six of their last seven MNF games, while the Bears have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight on Monday night. The under is 11-2 in the Bears last 13 games in October.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

It's not Josh Allen who leads the NFL in passing after two weeks, but Tua Tagovailoa. He threw for 469 yards and six TDs in last week's 42-38 win over the Ravens. He's got has hands full this week against the Buffalo Bills who lead the league in scoring. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, as the over is 10-4 in the last 14 head to head meetings. It sure looks like the dynamic duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill has turned the Dolphins into an offensive juggernaut. We should expect both these teams to get their share of points, and this total appears to be a bit on the low side.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is play on Under.

Posted this Sunday night before the news broke that Dak would be out for several weeks. The line has since been bet down by more than a TD which sort of kills off any value for clients.

This is a 2* play Under.

The teams played a high scoring game in Week 1 last year, but I am not expecting a repeat performance. Tom Brady is 45 years old and didn't practice for most of the pre-season. The Bucs lost their starting center, but they are still in far better shape than the Cowboys who will really miss Tyron Smith. Dak Prescott won't have Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott is trending in the wrong direction. The under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in four straight home games versus Tampa Bay.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

There is some optimism that the Lions will be better this year, particularly on offense. There is still plenty of reason to be skeptical of their defense. The Eagles come in with plenty of weapons, and they are projected to have the best offensive line in football. They should get their points. The Eagles scored 44 points at Detroit last year, and these two teams have gone over in eight straight head to head meetings. The over is 16-7 in Lions last 23 home games, and they have gone over in 16 of their last 21 season openers. You know they say that History Repeats Itself!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bengals managed to win on the road at Tennessee last week despite QB Joe Burrow getting sacked nine times. They will have no hope here in Kansas City if they fail to protect Burrow, despite the fact that they beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The Chiefs had a 28-17 lead at halftime in that game, and we could see both teams score their share of points here in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 782 yards and eight TDs on 76 percent passing in the Playoffs so far. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 overall, and they have gone over the total in seven straight overall. Don't be surprised if Kansas City wins this one in a blowout 42-24.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* GOY play on Under.

The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl favorites at times, but they haven't been at their best lately. Don't be fooled by their big win over the Eagles, in a game that Philly rested all their starters. Perhaps a more accurate indicator would be their home loss to Arizona a week earlier. They host a San Francisco team that poses a similar challenge. The Niners are going to try to punch the Cowboys in the mouth. What that means is, they will look to run the ball and control the clock, keeping the ball out of the hands of Dak Prescott. The Niners have failed to reach the total in five of their last six playoff games. The under is 8-3 in the Cowboys last 11 games overall, and Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games. The total for this contest is higher than it had been in each of the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8*

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Titans offense has struggled since losing Derrick Henry, averaging fewer than 15 points in their last four games overall. Their defense has continued to play well, allowing fewer than 20 points in those games. They rank 2nd in the NFL versus the run, allowing just 86.9 rushing yards per game. The Titans have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight home games, and with all the injuries points could be hard to come by here against the 49ers.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Seahawks and the Rams are relatively lucky to come into this game with most of their players healthy. A couple extra days have allowed the Rams to get several players back from the Covid list. Both these QBs come in hot, with Russell Wilson throwing for six TDs and just one INT in his last three starts, and Mathew Stafford throwing for nine TDs and just one INT in his last three starts. Seattle still ranks dead last in total defense allowing almost 400 yards per game. When these teams played earlier this season the total was set at 53.5, and now in LA we see a much lower number. Expect Russell Wilson to score enough to keep this game interesting and push the total over.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

Cold winter nights at Lambeau Field are not an ideal setting for quarterbacks to pad the stats in the passing game. Justin Fields rarely tosses the ball around the yard at the best of times. He's only bettered this number twice this season, and in a home loss to the Packers he threw for 174 yards with a TD and an INT on 16-of-27 passing. Fields is coming back from a rib injury, and while he's healthy enough to start this game, there's no guarantee he will finish it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

All of a sudden the Denver Broncos have won three of their last four and they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense. The Chiefs have won four straight, and their defense has allowed just 12 points per gane during that span. They have been a lot more focused on their running game, and they ran for 126 yards and two TDs in a win over the Cowboys two weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes didn't throw a TD pass in that game, and he's only had one multi TD game in his last five starts. The under is 23-11 in the Broncos last 34 games in December, and the under is 4-1-1 in the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

5*

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bucs will be a double digit favorite at home on Monday Night Football versus the Giants, but they have lost back to back games to Washington and New Orleans. While both those losses came on the road, the fact is that a pair of mediocre teams scored a total of 65 points in those games. Injuries in the secondary are hurting the Bucs, and without Vita Vea their run defense is suffering as well. Both these teams have offensive starters coming back from injury, and they have a history of playing high scoring games. The over is 6-0 in the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Rams are most people's favorite to win the Super Bowl, and they doubled down with the moves to add Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. They lost last week to the Titans, and that sets them up for a "get right" game here in San Francisco. The Rams are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a double-digit loss at home. LA has the better QB, and the better coach. The Niners drafted Trey Lance because they didn't trust Jimmy G. Kyle Shanahan might not be the answer either, and he should be on the hot seat. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Jets are a double digit dog at home versus Buffalo, but they might not be as bad as you think. There are 2-1 at home this season, and there is no denying that when Mike White steps in at QB they make things interesting. White has played in three games, completing 73 percent of his passes for 702 yards and five TDs. The Jets have gone over in five straight, and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home underdog. This might be a get right game for the Bills, but I expect Mike White to put some points on the board for the Jets.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Vikings know they need to be more agressive moving forward. Assistant coach Andre Patterson told reporters this week: "Instead of trying not to lose games, we need to go out and try to win". Being too conservative might explain why the Vikings offense ranks near the top of the league in total yards, but not in points scored. It's only a matter of time before those numbers even out. The over is 10-2 in the Vikings last 12 games following a straight up loss, and they have gone over in five straight road games. These two teams have gone over in five straight head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

Last week the Jets totaled 511 yards and upset the Bengals winning 34-31. Nobody saw it coming, but perhaps we should have been more optimistic about Mike "Effin" White. After all he did step in the previous week and immediately New York's offense started moving the ball. The Colts have been far from perfect, and they have gone over in four of their last five overall. These teams have gone over in seven of the laat 10 head to head meetings, and with Mike "Effin" White under center the Jets offense could make some noise here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Cowboys will make a decision on Dak Prescott before kickofff, but whether or not he plays it seems clear that he's not going to be 100 percent. The game plan here should be focused on a heavy dose of Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Only Cleveland has averaged more rushing yards per game than the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys have lost five of their last six at Minnesota, and the Vikings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games versus a team with a winning road record. At 3-3 the Vikings appear to be flying under the radar, and this looks like a good spot for the home team. The under is 4-1 in the Vikes last five home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The Titans win over the Bills on Monday Night Football was quite impressive, but their defense was shredded by Josh Allen. It won't get any easier this week against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The last two meetings between these teams have gone over the total, even a high number such as 58 (the current number at some books). Kansas City ranks 29th in the NFL in scoring defense, and second in the NFL passing yards. This game has "shootout" written all over it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Seahawks are bound to be a bit conservative on offense with their backup QB under center and their leading rusher on the IR. While Seattle ranks dead last in total defense, that is a little misleading. It hasn't necessarily translated into points the way you would expect. The Seahawks are allowing 25 points per game in a league where four teams are allowing 30+ points per game. The Steelers are also not the ideal team to take advantage of Seattle's defensive shortcomings. The under is 7-1 in the Seahawks last eight games following an ATS loss, and they have failed to reach the number in six of their last seven on the road.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over

FYI, it's almost unheard of to go undefeated in the NFL, now and in years past. The Arizona Cardinals are the last of the unbeaten teams this season, and this week looks like a situational nightmare for Arizona. Their offense played terrible last week in a close game that they got lucky to win at home versus San Francisco. Kyler Murray took a big hit and ended up on the bench getting his arm worked on. He's coming into Cleveland without his head coach who has tested positive for Covid19. The Cardinals have failed to cover in four of their last five versus teams with a winning record, and the Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six coming off a loss. Only Kansas City and Seattle have been worse against the run than Arizona this season, and that may not bode well against the league's #2 rushing offense. These teams have gone over in five of the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule