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This is a 5* play on the Under.

Both the Conference Championship Games fell well short of the listed total, and there are plenty of signs we should expect a low score in the Super Bowl. The Eagles defense knocked out Brock Purdy early in the game, and held the 49ers to just seven points. Their offense was a run heavy attack, and we haven't seen much in the passing game since Jalen Hurts came back from a shoulder injury. The Chiefs defense sacked Joe Burrow five times, and picked him off twice. They held the Bengals to just 71 yards on the ground, and they rank 6th in the NFL in opponent rushing TDs. Patrick Mahomes was limited due to a high ankle sprain, and he might be less than 100 percent here even after two weeks.

GL,

Jesse Schule

SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD.

This is a 4* play on KC.

The public is definitely backing Philly in the Super Bowl, with 66% of the tickets on the Eagles. There is no doubt that they have been the better team in the post-season. Philly should be able to control the line of scrimmage with superior and offensive and defensive line play. The thing is, that with two weeks to prepare for this game, a Hall of Fame coach like Andy Reid should be able to game plan and scheme to minimize that advantage. There's something to be said for experience, and the Chiefs have been here before. Kansas City knows what to expect, how to handle the media and everything leading up to the game. I am going to take a contrarian approach and go with the more experienced team with the superior quarterback.

GL,

Jesse Schule

SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD.

This is a 4* play on Under.

There is no doubt in my mind that Patrick Mahomes is going to play, but the question is how effective is he going to be. He wasn't too bad playing hurt last week, throwing for 195 yards and two TDs on 22-of-30 passing. He may not be able to extend plays with his legs, and that might result in a more conservative game plan from Andy Reid. This is a revenge spot for the Chiefs, after getting eliminated by the Bengals in a 27-24 OT home loss last January. There are a lot of trends pointing towards the under. The under is 26-10-3 in the Bengals last 39 road games, and the under is 12-3 in their last 15 games in January. These teams have gone under in five of the last six at Arrowhead.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under 45.5. 

The Niners have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they completely shut down Dallas last week. They are trying to become the first team in history to send a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. Mr Irrelevant looked pretty pedestrian against an elite Dallas defense. He threw for 219 yards on 19-of-29 passing, with no TDs or picks. The last time these teams played, San Francisco won 17-11 it Philly is September of last season. The under is 15-5-1 in Eagles last 21 playoff games, and the under is 12-3-1 in Eagles last 16 playoff home games. This should be a defensive battle. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SF.

The Niners have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they completely shut down Dallas last week. They are trying to become the first team in history to send a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. Mr Irrelevant looked pretty pedestrian against an elite Dallas defense. He threw for 219 yards on 19-of-29 passing, with no TDs or picks. While everyone is talking about the Niners rookie, the fact is that Jalen Hurts hasn't proved sh#t in big games. Remember it was Tua that walked off as a champion for Alabama, not Hurts. I'll take the best defense in football getting points in this spot all day.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on 49ers.

Dak Prescott threw for 305 yards and four TDs in a win over Tampa in the Wild Card game, but he faces the 49ers #1 ranked defense here this week. The Cowvboys were eliminated by San Francisco in a 23-17 home loss in last year's playoffs. Dak threw for 254 yards with a TD and an INT on 23-of-43 passing and he was sacked five times. The game ended with Dak running the ball instead of passing as the clock expired. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five playoff games, and the 49ers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on BUF.

The Bengals are coming off a home win over Baltimore, in a game that they were out-gained by 130 yards. The Ravens were on the goal line about to score a go-ahead TD, when the Bengals returned a fumble that would end up being the game winning score. The Bills also won a close game last week, failing to cover against the Dolphins. They actually out-gained Miami by almost 200 yards. Cincinnati has to be concerned about their banged up offensive line. They ranked 25th in the NFL in sacks allowed during the regular season, while Buffalo ranked in the Top 10 in QB sacks. The Bills are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on PHI.

The Giants were impressive in their upset win over the Vikings, but it's going to be a completely different matchup on the road in Philly this week. These teams played twice during the regular season, and Philly outscored New York 40-7 in the first half of those two games. Philly ran for 254 yards and four TDs in a 48-22 win at New York in December. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five Divisional Playoffs games, and well rested I expect them to roll in the first half here against the Giants. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Despite five turnovers against the Chargers last week, the Jags scored 31 points and erased a 27-0 deficit. Trevor Lawrence threw for 288 yards and four TDs on 28-of-47 passing in the comeback. He has his work cut out for him if he wants to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in passing (298 yds per game) and #1 in scoring averaging over 29 points per game. Kansas City doesn't have much of a running game, so we should see both teams air it out here. The over is 8-3 in Jaguars last 11 road games, and the Chiefs have gone over in 10 of their last 13 in the month of January.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

I can't take a side here, there's no way I trust either of these quarterbacks. Tom Brady has looked his age lately, throwing six INTs in his last four meaningful games. We won't count a meaningless game against Atlanta in the season finale. Dak Prescott has thrown eight picks in his last five starts, and his last game was a complete disaster. He threw for just 128 yards on 14-of-37 passing with a TD and an INT in a 26-6 loss to Washington. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven head to head meetings. I expect both coaches to be quite conservative, especially in the first half.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Bengals.

Money keeps coming in on the Bengals, and for good reason. We don't expect Lamar Jackson to play, and even if he does he would coming in without any game action in months and no time at practice. Anthony Brown threw for 286 yards and two INTs on 19-of-44 passing in last week's loss to the Bengals. The Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC North, and they have failed to cover in four straight versus the Bengals. The Bengals are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIN.

The Vikings won 13 games this season, but they don't get a lot of respect from bookmakers. The Bills and the 49ers both won 13 games, and they are each double digits favorites in their Wild Card Games. Kirk Cousins threw for more yards than Joe Burrow and Josh Allen, but he continues to get no respect. The Giants won just three of their last 10 games, sneaking in the back door to make the playoffs. The favorite has covered in six of the last seven meetings, and the Giants have lost four straight to the Vikings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards and three TDs on 28-of-39 passing in a 38-10 win over the Chargers in LA in Week 3, but don't read too much into the fact that the Chargers were blown out in that game. Justin Herbert had broken ribs, and Keenan Allen didn't play. Despite all the injuries and dealing with adversity, Herbert still threw for almost 5,000 yards and 25 TDs this season. The Chargers boast the NFL's #3 ranked passing offense. Jacksonville won their final five games in the regular season, scoring an average of more than 29 points in those contests. The over is 6-1 in the last seven head to head meetings, and the Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus Jacksonville. I expect both teams to score their share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on GB.

The Packers have won four straight, putting them in position to make the playoffs with a win over the Lions at home in Week 18. This is a revenge spot for Green Bay after they lost 15-9 at Detroit earlier in the season. That score was a bit misleading, as Green Bay out-gained the Lions 389-254 in total yards. It was three turnovers that allowed the Lions to win that game. This is a tough matchup for Detroit, a dome team playing on the road at Lambeau against the NFL's #2 ranked pass defense. While the Lions pass happy offense matches up against the Packers strength, the Packers run heavy offense matches up against Detroit's 31st ranked rush defense (opponent rushing TDs).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on SEA.

The Seahawks host the Rams in a must win game in Week 18, and Geno Smith is coming off a big game against the Jets. Smith threw for 367 yards, three TDs and an INT on 28-of-39 passing in a win over the Rams earlier this season. The Rams are 1-6 on the road, and they have nothing to play for here in the final week of the season. Kenneth Walker ran for 133 yards on 22 carries against the Jets, and he could have another big game against a Rams defense that has allowed over 135 rushing yards per game in their last three overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on PHI.

This is a 4* play on PIT.

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in his tenure in Pittsburgh, and a win over the Browns in the season finale will keep that streak alive. The Cleveland Browns have a chance to play spoiler, but they have already been eliminated from post-season contention. While they might think they want to get up for this game, it's likely that a few nasty hits from TJ Watt and company will curb their enthusiasm. In light of recent events, it's hard to imagine teams risking injury in meaningless games at the end of the season. The Steelers still have something to play for, and that should make all the difference. The Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Pittsburgh.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Jags . 

With Josh Dobbs starting at QB for the Titans, I think they are in big trouble here in the AFC South Title Game. The Jags are on a roll, coming off four consecutive wins. The streak started with a 36-22 win at Tennessee. Trevor Lawrence threw for 368 yards and three TDs on 30-of-42 passing in the victory. He will face a Titans defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in passing TDs allowed. Josh Dobbs faces a Jags defense that has allowed just six points in the last two weeks. Asking Derrick Henry to carry the load hasn't been an effective strategy lately, and at the end of the year that kind of workload takes it's toll (remember last year). 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LA Chargers. 

The Rams scored 51 points in a blowout win over the Broncos last week. Baker Mayfield threw for 238 yards and a pair of TDs on 24-of-28 passing. That's great, but they ain't playing the Broncos this week. This looks like a huge let down spot on the road at LA. Only one of these teams is going to the playoffs, and it ain't the Rams. The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win, and they are 1-5 on the road this season. This should be a reality check for the Rams. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NE.

The Patriots have lost four of their last five overall, but a home game against the Dolphins looks like a favorable spot for Bill Belichick and company. The Dolphins are expecting to be without their starting QB, and they haven't won a game without him yet this season. Teddy Bridgewater has thrown for 522 yards, three TDs and three INTs in two games as a starter. He might not have the luxury of relying on the running game, as New England has allowed the fewest rushing TDs in the NFL this season. The Dolphins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in New England.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on NYG.

The Indianapolis Colts rank 27th in the NFL in rushing TDs allowed, and they play on the road in New York Sunday. It's a must win game for the Giants, and we are sure to see plenty of Saquon Barkley. Nick Foles was definitely not the answer for the Colts, throwing for 143 yards and three INTs in a loss to the Chargers last week. The Colts are playing on a short week, and they have nothing to play for. The Giants lost at Minnesota last week, and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six coming off a loss. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

The Chargers have won three of their last four games, and they are as healthy as they have been all year. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams have been banged up all year, but they are finally at full strength. Justin Herbert has still managed to throw for over 4,000 yards despite all the injuries. He could be in for a big game against a Colts defense that gave up 36 points in the second half in Minnesota last week. Blowing a 33-0 lead is a new low for Indy, and those type of losses are hard to come back from. History favors the Chargers, who are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and they have covered in four of their last five at Indianapolis.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Tampa. 

As bad as things appear to be in Tampa Bay, the Bucs are still the favorite to win the NFC South. This team still has plenty to play for, while it looks like the Arizona Cardinals will be waiving a white flag here this week. Arizona officially eliminated from the post-season, and down to their third string QB. Trace McSorley has thrown for 166 yards and three INTs on just over 50 percent passing in limited action this year. Given the QB situation, it's hard to see the rest of the team being too invested in this meaningless game. Expecting the Cardinals offense to struggle to move the chains, that should lead to more possessions for Brady and company. Despite the loss, Brady threw for 312 yards and three TDs last week. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on MIA.

The Dolphins appear to be badly in need of some home cooking, coming off a road trip that resulted in three consecutive losses at San Francisco, LA and Buffalo. They host Green Bay, and the Packers could be in a let down spot coming off a home win over the Rams on Monday night. The Packers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last seven coming off a win. The Dolphins are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games, and they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

The line has moved significantly due to the injury to Jalen Hurts. I am not convinced that the Eagles are much worse off with Minshew Mania at the helm. Gardner Minshew has completed over 63 percent of his passes for 41 TDs and a dozen INTs in his NFL career. Most of his playing time came with the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Now he steps in behind an elite offensive line, on the best team in the NFL. There is every reason to expect him to be successful, as least moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. These teams have gone over in four straight, and three straight in Dallas. The total came down several points after the news that Hurts wouldn't play, and I still expect the Eagles to score enough to get the total over the number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Cleveland.

The Browns host the Saints on X-Mas Eve, and Cleveland has won three of their last four games. The Saints have lost five straight on the road, and you have to question how motivated they will be to play in poor weather in Cleveland. Nick Chubb has run for over 700 yards and nine TDs in eight games in Cleveland this season. Kareem Hunt gives the Browns one of the best second string running backs in the NFL, and they perfectly suited to play in cold weather in a winter storm in Cleveland.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on over. 

The Vikings defense has given up 70 points in their last two games. Last week they trailed the Colts 33-0 at halftime, and came all the way back to win 39-36. They have now gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and it would be no surprise to see another high score here against the Giants. The Vikings have allowed an average of 28 points in their last seven home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on NYJ.

So the Jets lost at home to the Lions last week, but it wasn't Zach Wilson's fault. He threw for 317 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 18-of-35 passing. He doesn't play defense, so you can't blame him for the 51 yard game winning TD Detroit scored with under two minutes to play. The Jets host Jacksonville on Thursday, and this looks like one helluva let down spot for the Jags. They rallied back from a 14-point halftime deficit to force overtime against the Cowboys, going on to win the game on an INT return. The Jaguars are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Jets are 6-0 ATS when coming off an ATS loss. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

The Chargers have had their fair share of disappointment this season, but it doesn't seem like their injury woes have been properly accounted for.  Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are finally healthy, and they lit it up against the Dolphins last week. Herbert threw for 367 yards and a TD on 39-of-51 passing versus Miami. The Titans have been playing over their heads in my opinion, so it was no surprise to see them lose their last three games. The Titans are 1-8-2 ATS in the last 11 head to head meetings, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven at LA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on CAR.

The Panthers control their own destiny. They can win the division if they run the table and beat the Bucs on January 1st. This is a different team than the one that started the season losing five of their first six games. They fired their coach, traded their superstar running back, and cut their starting QB. It looks like addition by subtraction, as they have won three of their last four games. During that run they have been pounding the rock, running twice as often as they have been passing. The Steelers gave up 215 yards on the ground in a loss to Baltimore last week, and Mitch Trubisky threw for 276 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs on 22-of-30 passing. Trubisky is not their first choice, but he's their only choice with Kenny Pickett out due to injury.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on the Jets.

The Jets were a three-point favorite until it was announced that Zach Wilson would get the start. Admittedly I like Mike White a lot better, but lets be real about Wilson. As bad as he looked at times, the Jets are 5-2 in games he's played. This looks like a tough spot for the Lions, a dome team on the road in bad weather. The Lions are starting to like their own smell after winning five of their last six. During that run they beat one team with a winning record, and that was last week's home win over the Vikings. The same Vikings that were losing 33-0 to Indy on Saturday. I'll take the Jets as the home dog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Buffalo.

This is a revenge game for Buffalo, as they lost 21-19 in Miami earlier this season. The Bills had the edge in total yards 497-212, but managed to make enough mistakes to lose the game. On a snowy day in Buffalo, it's worth pointing out that revenge is a dish best served cold. The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Buffalo, and the Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in December.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on SF.

The 49ERS will look to clinch the NFC West with a win in Seattle on Thursday. They have won back to back games since Jimmy G went down, scoring 68 points in those contests. SF has plenty of weapons, but without Deebo Samuel they might lean a little more on Christian McCaffrey. He faces a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns allowed. McCaffrey scored a pair of TDs last week, and if you exclude his 49ers debut where he only played a limited role, he's found the endzone six times in six games since arriving in San Francisco. The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 6-0 in their last six versus the NFC West.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

The Chargers have been great as an underdog, they have consistently shown that they can battle back to stay in games and keep it close even when they lose. Justin Herbert is 4th in the NFL in passing despite his top WR only playing five games, his #2 WR missing four games, and playing through a series rib injury. Their offense comes into tonight's game as healthy as it has been all year, and they line up against a Dolphins team that might be still reeling after getting run over by San Francisco. The Dolphins are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five road games. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on SF.

So Jimmy G got hurt and the line for this game dropped in half. At the end of the day he was just a game manager, and the 49ers are fully equipped to win games with a rookie at QB. Last week it was Brock Purdy for almost the entire game, and San Francisco beat the pants off of a very good Miami team. Purdy threw for 210 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 25-of-37 passing. The Bucs needed two TDs in the final three minutes to come from behind and beat the Saints 17-16 last week, they aren't likely to get so lucky here in San Francisco.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Lions are 5-7, and yet they are favorite here at home against a 10-2 Minnesota team. Both these teams are playing their best football of late, each winnimng four of their last five games. The Lions rank dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 402 yards per game. Right behind them are the Vikings allowing 398 yards per game. The Lions lost 28-24 at Minnesota earlier this season, and last December they won 29-27 at Ford Field. The over is 11-5 in the Vikings last 16 road games, and the Lions have gone over in six of their last eight home games. The over is 4-1 in the Vikings last five at Detroit.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NYG.

The Eagles own the best record in the NFL, but they are asked to cover a big spread in a divisional road game in bad weather this week. History tells us that the home team has won outright in six of the last seven head to head meetings. The Eagles have only covered in one of their last seven road games, and the Giants have covered in four of their last five home games. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

Heading into the season we thought the duo of Derek Carr and Davante Adams would put up huge numbers. They got off to a slow start, but over the last five games Adams is averaging over 132 receiving yards per game. He also has seven TDs during that span. The Raiders come into LA as winners of three in a row, and they face a Rams defense decimated by injuries. Geno Smith threw for 367 yards and three TDs in LA on Sunday. Despite a lost season for the Rams, they were still competitive against Seattle. These games may just be an opportunity for players like Cam Akers and Van Jefferson to pad their stats. The Raiders 26th ranked defense allows 25 points per game, so there should be opportunities.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Tampa.

While the Bucs have significant injury concerns on the offensive line and the secondary, I am not sure that a Saints team that has lost four straight road games and sits dead last in the NFC South standings can upset the division leaders. Tom Brady versus Andy Dalton in a Prime Time game with playoff implications, I gotta go with the Bucs. The last tine the Red Rifle won a Monday night game was with Cincinnati back in 2014, he's 0-6 since. Brady has Evans, Godwin and Jones all healthy, and while a makeshift offensive line might force him to get get rid of the ball in a hurry, he's proven more than capable of doing just that. In fact he has the quickest release time of any current starting QB since the start of last season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

The Raiders are coming off a 40-34 win at Seattle, and they had over 500 total yards in the victory. They will be in LA to take on the Chargers, and LA is banged up on defense. Justin Herbert is one of five QBs in the NFL with over 3,000 yards passing, which is even more impressive when you consider he's missed his top two WRs for most of the season. Keenan Allen is back, and he caught a TD pass against Arizona last week. The over is 8-3 in the Chargers last 11 games following a ATS loss. I expect this game to be a shootout, and I don't see Derek Carr winning a duel against Justin Herbert.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on SEA.

The Seahawks are just a game out of first place in the NFC West, and they play a Rams team that is going through the motions as this season looks like a lost cause. Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald are all out for the Rams. LA has lost five straight, four of those by 7+ points. Seattle is coming off a home loss to the Raiders, but the Seahawks are 41-20-4 ATS in their last 65 games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on DET.

The Lions have won three of their last four overall, with the one loss during that span coming on Thanksgiving against Super Bowl favorites Buffalo. They get a few extra days to rest up and prepare for the Jags, and this looks like a potential let down spot for Jacksonville. Despite being out-ganed 415-332 in total yards, the Jags upset the Ravens at home last week. They lost RB Travis Etienne to a sprained foot, and his status is in question this week. The Jaguars are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine road games, and they have failed to cover in seven of their last nine coming off a win. They have lost three straight at Ford Field, and that's a trend we expect to continue.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Under.

The last game played at Gillette Stadium saw the Patriots score just three points up until the final five seconds of regulation. They were quite fortunate that they held the Jets to just three points on just 103 yards of offense. They were even luckier to return a punt for a touchdown to walk the game off for the win. They host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, and both these teams boast Top 5 scoring defenses each allowing just 18 points per game. The weatherman says it's going to be cold with rain and wind (if you can trust the forecast several days out). The Pats have held opponents to three points or less in three of their last four games. I think 21 points will be enough to win this game

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Philly.

The Packers have lost six of their last seven games, and they will not be going to the playoffs. If there was ever a time to pack it in, and give up on the season, this is it. Aaron Rodgers has not only played poorly, he's blamed everyone else around him. The Eagles are 9-1, and six of those nine wins came by more than seven points. Philly has an NFL best 18 rushing TDs this season, and they rank 5th in the NFL in total offense. With Rodgers playing hurt with a broken thumb, this game could get out of hand and we could see Jordan Love at some point.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

Both these teams have been hit hard by injuries, but the Chargers offense is in far better shape with Kennan Allen back in the fold. Allen caught five passes for 94 yards in his first game back versus the Chiefs last week.  The Cardinals are hoping to get Kyler Murray back this week, but if his hamstring is anything less than 100 percent he may not be that effective. The Chargers looked pretty good pushing Kansas City to the brink last week, but Patrick Mahomes got the best of them once again. LA is 5-1 ATS in their last six games off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TB.

The Bucs are in first place in the NFC South, despite just a 5-5 record. They might have a better record if they didn't have so many injuries early in the season. Perhaps we got a glimpse of what this team looks like at full strength when they beat Seattle 21-16 in Germany two weeks ago. With a bye week to prepare for Cleveland, I expect the best of Brady and the Bucs. Jacoby Brissett will have Deshaun Watson looming large, and it will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on the Broncos.

Honestly.... it's really hard to like the Broncos. This team is a mess, with an overpaid quarterback and a head coach that is in way over his head. That being said, Russell Wilson is a Super Bowl champion, and he doesn't lack skill. He's won at the highest level, and at the end of the day he's a lot more reliable than Sam Darnold. The Panthers made a desperation move, handing the ball to a guy who has thrown more picks than TDs over his last two seasons as a starter. Darnold steps in to face the NFL's #3 ranked scoring defense, It might be hard for Nathaniel Hackett to EFF UP bad enough to lose this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Vikings.

So the Patriots held the Jets to 104 total years of offense on Sunday, but up until the final seconds of the 4th quarter the game was tied 3-3. It was a special teams TD in the last five seconds of the game that one it for New England, and I am not so sure we should be impressed by that. They aren't playing Zach Wilson this Thanksgiving in Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off their worst performance of the season, but it really shouldn't have surprised anybody that they had a let down after upsetting the Super Bowl favorites in Buffalo. The Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit loss at home.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on LA Chargers.

There is history here between these division rivals, and recent meetings have been great games going down to the wire. Justin Herbert threw for 334 yards 3TDs, 1 INT on 33-of-48 passing in a 27-24 loss at Kansas City earlier this year. Last year he threw for 517 yards, 6 TDs and 1 INT on 48-of-76 passing in two games against the Chiefs last year. Kansas City has only covered in one of their last six head to head meetings versus the Chargers, and that win came in overtime 34-28 last December in LA. We could see Keenan Allen and Mike Williams return this week. That would be a huge boost for Justin Herbert.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Cincinnati.

The Bengals lost their home opener to the Steelers, and they have a chance to right that wrong in a revenge game here in Pittsburgh this week. Cinci won 24-10 at Pittsburgh last year, and they have won three of the last four meetings outright. The Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and they are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 overall. Kenny Picket has thrown four times more picks than he has TDs this season (2-8). The Steelers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NE.

I take a lot of things into consideration before placing a bet. I don't blindly follow specific trends or situations without a deep dive into the matchup, personnel, weather and every angle I can find. Here in this game it's pretty simple, we got Bill Belichick at home, coming off a bye in a divisional game. The Patriots are 10-0 straight up against the Jets since 2017, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home game versus New York. After an upset win over the Buffalo Bills, this looks like a let down spot for the Jets.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on NYG.

The betting public seems to be hesitant to jump on the Giants bandwagon, but I have been high on New York since the pre-season. Here is what I said in my season win total prediction: "The Giants used a first round pick in the 2022 draft to select right tackle Evan Neal out of Alabama. An improved offensive line could go a long way in helping Jones limit the turnovers in 2022." Jones hasn't thrown a pick in his last six starts, and New York is 5-1 in those games. The Lions could be due for a let down coming off a come from behind win at Chicago. Saquon ran for 152 yards on 35 carries last week, and with a stud in the backfield and a mobile QB the Giants are designed to win in cold and windy weather in November at home versus a dome team.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Packers.

The Titans have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors. They have won six of their last seven games, but that run is as phony as a two dollar bill. They beat the Colts twice, the Texans, Broncos, Raiders and Commanders. The Packers on the other hand are coming off a home win over Dallas that might be just what they need to get back on track. There are big injury concerns for the Titans, they have ruled out center Ben Jones (concussion), safety Amani Hooker (shoulder), kicker Randy Bullock (right calf) and outside linebacker Bud Dupree (hip). Aaron Rodgers has a career record of 88-21-1 at Lambeau.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

This is the last stand for the Packers this season. If they are going to save the season it has to happen here against Dallas. They get a home game in bad weather, normally an ideal spot for this team. I expect them to bring a ton of intensity on defense and lean on their running game. It's not clear if Aaron Rodgers can do anything with this receiving corps. The Cowboys have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 games in November. The under is 6-1 in the Packers last seven games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Miami.

How much better are the 6-3 Dolphins than the 3-5 Browns? Well we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Miami is actually 6-0 when Tua starts and finishes a game. They are 0-3 when he has been sidelined by injury. The Browns are expected to see a healthy Tua with Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle today. The Browns are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points, and the Dolphins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games versus a team with a losing road record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a free play on Chicago.

The Lions are coming off a huge win over Green Bay, setting them up for a let down here in Chicago. They are a dome team on the road in "The Windy City" and that figures to be a problem. Jared Goff has 14 TDs and 7 INTs this season, but he's thrown four picks and has just one TD pass in three starts on the road. Matt Eberflus appears to have figured out how to get Justin Fields and this offense up and running, and the Bears have plenty of momentum. They are far better equipped to play in bad weather, and they have owned the Lions in recent years. Chicago is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on TB.

As bad as the Bucs have been so far, they come into this international game against Seattle sitting first in the NFC South. They are finally healthy on both sides of the ball, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones all expected to start. It's likely that Brady will pass Patrick Mahomes as the NFL passing leader during this game. Seattle is off to a surprising 6-3 start, but they look as though they are due for a let down. The Seahawks have failed to cover in four of their last five versus the Bucs, and this looks like a tough spot for Geno and company.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on ATL.

The Falcons have statistically the worst pass defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to average over 300 yards per game. That might not matter against a Carolina team that doesn't have a starting QB. PJ Walker is expected to get the start, despite going 3-of-10 for nine yards and two INTs in a loss to the Bengals last week. The Panthers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, and they are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 coming off a loss. The Falcons have really had the Panthers number, covering in 10 of the last 14 meetings. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five head to head meetings, and Atlanta has covered in four straight at Carolina.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LV.

It's not easy to bet on the Raiders after they lost 24-0 at New Orleans, they might be catching the Jags in a good spot. Jacksonville has lost five straight, and it might be tine to start packing it in. The Raiders have won three of the last four meetings, and the Jaguars are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games overall. The Jaguars are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on the Eagles.

The Texans have just one win in their first seven games, despite being perhaps more competitive than expected. The trade deadline is a turning point for teams like Houston though, and we can expect them to fold like a cheap suit in the second half of the season. Disgruntled WR Brandin Cooks is listed as questionable, after he made comments about "covering up lies" when he wasn't traded at the deadline. Houston has by far the worst run defense in the NFL, allowing over 186 rush yards per game. The Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on CINCI.

The Bengals are a favorite on the road in Cleveland despite losing both meetings versus the Browns last year. Throw out a meaningless game with backup quarterbacks starting at the end of last season, and these teams have gone over in each of the previous five meetings. The Browns won 41-16 in Cincinnati last November, and both Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon scored two TDs each. The over is 4-0 in the Browns last four home games, and the over is 7-1-1 in the last nine head to head meetings. This is a revenge spot for Cinci, and the Browns might not be up to the task coming off four straight losses. The Bengals are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games, while the Browns are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games versus a team with a winning road record.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on San Francisco. 

The 49ers are in a must win situation as they look to avoid a three game losing streak here in LA. The Rams are still trying to shake off a Super Bowl hangover, and Mathew Stafford has struggled all year. Stafford has thrown for more picks (8) than touchdowns (6). He threw for 254 yards and an INT on 32-of-48 passing, and he was sacked seven times in a loss to San Francisco at the beginning of October. The Rams have lost seven of their last eight head to head meetings versus San Francisco, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games. The 49ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. The addition of Christian McCaffrey should pay dividends this week, and I like the visitors to secure a W. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on TB.

Fournette has scored four TDs in his last four games played, and the Ravens have allowed eight rushing TDs in their last five games. With the Ravens struggling secondary taking so many pass interference penalties, the chance that Fournette gets to run one in from a 1st and goal at the 1-yard line seems high. This looks like a get right spot for the Bucs, and they might get some help from the officials here at home. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record, and they have failed to cover in four straight overall. They were lucky last week against the Browns, with Cleveland missing a late potential game tying FG.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Patriots welcome back Mac Jones on Monday night at home against the Bears, despite the fact that their offense looked a lot better with Bailey Zappe under center. Jones has thrown for 786 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs on 66 percent passing this season. This isn't exactly a favorable matchup as the Bears rank among the best in the NFL against the pass allowing just over 170 yards per game. The good news for New England is that Chicago can't stop the run, allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. This should prompt Belicheck to pound the rock, burning the clock and slowing the game down. History favors the under, as the Patriots have gone under in six of their last seven MNF games, while the Bears have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight on Monday night. The under is 11-2 in the Bears last 13 games in October.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on MIA.

The Dolphins were on a roll before Tua got hurt, and they get their QB back this week. A home game against the Steelers looks like a favorable spot for Tua and the Dolphins. The Steelers are due for a let down after a home upset win over Tom Brady and the Bucs. The Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight road games. The Dolphins are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a losing road record. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on the Raiders.

The Texans are coming off a win over Jacksonville, their only win this season. A closer look at that game reveals that they were quite fortunate. They were out-gained 422-248 in total yards, and they benefited from a pair of Trevor Lawrence interceptions. The Raiders have struggled early in the season, but Derek Carr and Davante Adams are starting to click. Adams has a dozen catches for 225 yards and a pair of TDs in his last two starts. Josh Jacobs has run for 298 yards and three TDs in his last two starts. Coming off a bye week, and facing a Texans team that ranks near the bottom of the league allowing over 160 rushing yards per game should bode well for Jacobs and the Raiders.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Baltimore. 

The Ravens are coming off an ugly loss on the road at New York, but they've been alternating wins and losses all year. They have a favorable matchup this week, hosting a banged up Cleveland Browns team. Both these teams struggle on defense, but the Ravens struggle against the pass while the Browns struggle against the run. That's bad news for a one-dimensional Cleveland offense that is heavily dependent on the running game. The Ravens on the other hand should be able to take advantage of the Browns poor run defense. The Browns are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games in October, and they have failed to cover in five straight against the Ravens. TheRavens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LAC. 

This matchup features two of the most controversial head coaches in the NFL, but Brandon Staley has more talent to work with. Justin Herbert has thrown for 1,478 yards with 10 TDs and just two picks, and he's likely due for a strong performance three weeks after suffering a rib injury. Russell Wilson is still banged up with a sore shoulder, and he's struggled all season long. The Broncos have failed to cover in five straight road games, and they were lit up by the Raiders in their most recent road game. The home team has covered in five straight head to head meetings, give me LA all day! 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DAL.

I had the Cowboys as the underdog last week, and bet against the Eagles as a favorite. That worked out well, and I am going right back with the same strategy again this week. Here is what I said over a week ago:

"The Eagles are flying high, but they will come crashing back down to earth at some point. They are asked to cover a big number here.."

"The betting public might well view this week's home game against the Cowboys as a good bounce back spot for the champs. It's not really a great matchup for a struggling QB (Stafford) who has two more INTs than he does TDs. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks Top 5 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171 yards per game."

The Cowboys are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, and they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Philadelphia.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on BUF.

So ever since the Chiefs won the coin flip and marched down the field to score a walk off TD in last year's playoff win over the Bills, we've all been waiting for this rematch. Tyreek Hill had 11 catches for 150 yards and a TD in that game, and he's not going to be there for Patrick Mahomes this time around. The Bills are 4-1, and in their only loss (versus Miami) they had a 497-212 edge in total yards, 31-15 edge in first downs. Buffalo comes in with the league's #1 ranked offense, and the #1 ranked defense. Josh Allen leads the league in passing yards, and QBR. I don't bet on games just because revenge is a factor, but I truly believe that the Bills have improved and the Chiefs have regressed. The added motivation certainly doesn't hurt.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on IND.

The Jags beat the Colts 24-0 earlier this season, and for whatever reason Jacksonville just seems to have their number. The Jags have covered in six straight, and nine of the last 10 head to head meetings dating all the way back to 2016. But as my good friend Lee Corso would say: "not so fast my friend". The home team is 10-0 straight up during that span. While the Colts failed to cover in all but one of their four home wins over Jacksonville, the average margin of victory in those games was over 10 points. Jonathan Taylor is expected to return this week, and that could change everything. Given Matt Ryan's struggles, we shouldn't be asking him to do too much. Meanwhile Trevor Lawrence threw for 286 yards and a pair of INTs on 25-of-47 passing in a loss to the Texans last week. The Jaguars are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss, and they have failed to cover in six of their last seven on the road. I'll take the home team just to win straight up.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on LV.

The Chiefs are the better team here, but they are in a tough spot. Everybody is already talking about next Sunday's rematch versus Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, and it's impossible to expect KC to be 100% focused on their opponent here this week. The Raiders are 1-3, but all three of their losses came by less than seven points. Derek Carr and Davante Adams are still developing chemistry, but Adams is coming off a nine reception 100+ yard game against Denver. Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and two TDs on 28 carries in the win over the Broncos. The Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 versus a team with a losing record. This game looks like it could be a shootout, but I'll take the points with a live dog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on CIN.

When the bookmakers tell you that the Ravens are favored by more than a field goal here, they might as well be saying "don't believe you're lying eyes". Forget about the fact that they rank dead last in the NFL against the pass, and their struggling secondary could be without Marcus Peters this week. Never mind that the Bengals swept the season series last year. Well I ain't buying it. The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and they have covered in six of their last seven road games. Cinci looks like the better team at the moment, and I expect them to win this game OUTRIGHT!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on DAL.

The Rams are the defending champs, coming off an ugly loss on the road at San Francisco. The betting public might well view this week's home game against the Cowboys as a good bounce back spot for the champs. It's not really a great matchup for a struggling QB (Stafford) who has two more INTs than he does TDs. He faces a Cowboys defense that ranks Top 5 in the NFL against the pass, allowing 171 yards per game. Stafford is playing behind an offensive line in shambles, and he's failed to connect with any WR not named Cooper Kupp. The visitors may have their backup QB under center, but he's undefeated in four career starts. I'll take the points here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Jets.

The Dolphins come into New York as the favorite, asked to cover points despite missing their starting QB and potentially a handful of key position players. After going undefeated in the pre-season, the Jets are off to a rather dubious 2-2 start. Both their wins have come on the road, and both the result of improbable fourth quarter comebacks. Lets not kid ourselves and confuse these Jets with what you can consider a "good" football team. The fact is these kids have some momentum, and plenty of reason to believe that they are never out of it. That can be a dangerous thing when they are a home dog against a banged up road favorite with so many distractions. I'll take the points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Colts.

Indy was favored to win the AFC South heading into the season, but after winning just one of their first four games they are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far. So what went wrong? Matt Ryan ranks 4th in the NFL in passing, but he's thrown as many picks (5) as he has TDs. He's also fumbled an NFL worst nine times. Jonathan Taylor has been banged up and hasn't been as productive as he was last season. Indy appears to be due for some positive regression. The Broncos have plenty of issues of their own, and their problems might not be as easy to fix. Injuries to Randy Gregory and Javonte Williams will hurt, and Nathaniel Hackett hasn't inspired much confidence as the head coach. Russell Wilson is battling shoulder soreness, and asking this team to cover a number seems a little optimistic.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on LAR.

Kyle Shanahan and the San Francisco coaching staff made a mistake naming Trey Lance the starter in the offseason, and while they are fortunate they still have Jimmy G, it might take a while for him to get up to speed. He threw for 211 yards with a TD and an INT on 18-of-29 passing in a loss to the Broncos last Sunday. He threw for 232 yards, 2 TDs and an INT on 16-of-30 passing in a 20-17 loss to the Rams in last year's playoffs. San Francisco blew a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter of that game. It wasn't the first time that Shanahan blew a double digit lead in the playoffs, he's done it twice in the Super Bowl versus the Chiefs and the Patriots. The Rams should have an edge with Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The favorite has failed to cover in seven straight meetings between these two teams, and I think the bookmakers made an error listing San Francisco as the favorite for this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on INDY.

The Titans held on for a 24-22 win over the Raiders last week, despite fewer total yards and fewer first downs. It wasn't a particularly impressive win against another winless team, and once again Derrick Henry looked like a shell of his former self. Henry is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and he hasn't ran for 100 yards in any of his three starts. As bad as the Colts looked in the first two weeks, they are coming off a win over the Chiefs and sit at 1-1-1 overall this season. This is a revenge spot for Indy after losing both games against the Titans last year. Jonathan Taylor should go off here against a Titans defense that ranks 27th in rushing defense. I'll take the home team in this divisional rivalry game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Dallas.

The Cowboys will have Cooper Rush under center again in Week 4, and so far he's getting the job done filling in for Dak Prescott. The Cowboys host Washington, who they owned last season. The Cowboys are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 divisional games, and they are 6-0 ATS in their last six versus a team with a losing record. Carson Wentz was sacked nine times in last week's loss to Philly, and that doesn't bode well against a Dallas defense that has terrorized opposing QBs this season. The Commanders are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss, and they have failed to cover in six of their last eight versus the NFC East.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Vikings.

The Vikings are 2-1 with their only loss coming on the road at Philadelphia, and they head to London to take on a Saints team that has lost back to back games. The Saints are banged up, with both their starting QB and their top WR for this game. Alvin Kamara hasn't been healthy for a long time, and he's only run for 100 yards in two games this season. It should come as no surprise that he's also listed as questionable. This looks like a tough spot for the Saints facing a mostly healthy Vikings team with all the weapons they have on offense. The Saints are 4-10 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Andy Dalton's last start came in a 31-17 loss to the Vikings, and the threw for 325 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs on 33-of-48 passing in that game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on the Rams.

The Rams are coming off a 31-27 win over Atlanta, failing to cover for the second Sunday in a row. That game was not as close as the final score would indicate. The Rams had a 28-3 lead in the third quarter, and Atlanta scored 17 points in garbage time in the 4th quarter. Arizona appeared to be dead to rights in Las Vegas last week, but they scored a pair of TDs and converted a pair of two-point conversions in the final minutes to force overtime, and then won the game on a fumble return for TD. Arizona is still a mess, and Sean McVay versus Kliff Kingsbury is a coaching mismatch of epic proportions. History favors the Rams, as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven at Arizona.
 

GL,
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

It's not Josh Allen who leads the NFL in passing after two weeks, but Tua Tagovailoa. He threw for 469 yards and six TDs in last week's 42-38 win over the Ravens. He's got has hands full this week against the Buffalo Bills who lead the league in scoring. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, as the over is 10-4 in the last 14 head to head meetings. It sure looks like the dynamic duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill has turned the Dolphins into an offensive juggernaut. We should expect both these teams to get their share of points, and this total appears to be a bit on the low side.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LV.

The Raiders opened up a 20-0 lead in the first half against Arizona last week, and they had a 23-7 lead in the fourth quarter. Somehow they suffered an epic meltdown, allowing Arizona to score a pair of late TDs and a pair of two-point conversions. Then the Raiders fumbled in overtime losing 29-23. While these are the type of losses that are tough to come back from, they face a Tennessee team that has more than it's share of problems. The offensive line was already a mess, and then last week they lost Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold. Derrick Henry looks like a shell of his former self, and Ryan Tannehill continues to regress. The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Tennessee, and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on PHI.

The Eagles are flying, coming into Washington off back to back wins. They held Kirk Cousins to 221 yards with a TD and three INTs on Monday night. Perhaps that was a preview of what former Eagles QB Carson Wentz can look forward to here on Sunday. Wentz threw for 337 yards and three TDs in a loss to the Lions last week, and he was sacked five times in that game. It won't get any easier against Philly. The Eagles swept the season series last year, and they appear to be primed to run away with the NFC East in 2022.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Minny.

Turn on the TV and all the analysts will tell you how bad Kirk Cousins is in Monday Night Football games. i honesty think that's a ridiculous thing to believe, that he is significantly worse on Monday than he is on Sunday afternoon. While he's 2-9 straight up in Monday night games, his QBR in those games is actually pretty good. His chemistry with Justin Jefferson and new head coach Kevin O'connell looked pretty good last week. The defense looked equally as impressive, holding Aaron Rodgers to 195 yards and an INT, and sacking him twice. The Eagles don't look bad either, but at the end of the day they beat the lions and still gave up a ton of points. Jalen Hurts was flirting with an intentional grounding penalty all day. My read here is that the Vikes are getting points, and they have the better QB, RB, WRs, coaching is a wash, hard to say who's got the better defense. I'll take the dog.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is play on Under.

Posted this Sunday night before the news broke that Dak would be out for several weeks. The line has since been bet down by more than a TD which sort of kills off any value for clients.

This is a 4* play on NYJ.

The Jets lost 24-9 to the Ravens in Week 1, despite holding an edge in total yards (380-274). The Browns kicked a 58 yard FG in the final seconds to come from behind and win 26-24 in Cleveland. It sure seems like the Browns are asked to cover a lot of points for a team with such a one dimensional offense. The Jets have a history of playing close games against Cleveland, covering the spread in six of the last eight meetings. The Browns have failed to cover in five straight as a favorite, and they have failed to cover in four of their last five home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIA.

The Ravens beat the Jets in Week 1 but it come at a cost. Left Tackle JaWuan James tore his Achilles in Week 1, and Ronnie Stanley is listed as doubtful this week. Despite what appeared to be a one sided win against the Jets, the Ravens were actually outgained 380-274 in total yards. Miami should pose a much bigger threat here than their Week 1 opponent. Tua connected with Tyreek Hill for eight receptions for 94 yards, and Jalen Waddle had 69 yards and a TD on four grabs. Miami's defense held the Patriots to just seven points on 271 total yards of offense. The Ravens are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win, and I don't think they should be favored by three and the hook.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

The Chiefs were impressive in a win at Arizona in Week 1, but that game might say more about the Cardinals than it does about the Chiefs. They should face a much tougher test on Thursday night in a home game against the Chargers. Home field hasn't proved to be much of an advantage in recent meetings between these teams. The home team has lost seven of the last eight meetings straight up. Going back even further, the road team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings. The Chargers are 36-16-4 ATS in their last 56 games as a road underdog. LA dominated defensively in their win over the Raiders in Week 1. They sacked Derek Carr five times and forced him to throw three INTs. I like LA to give the Chiefs all they can handle on Thursday night.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play Under.

The teams played a high scoring game in Week 1 last year, but I am not expecting a repeat performance. Tom Brady is 45 years old and didn't practice for most of the pre-season. The Bucs lost their starting center, but they are still in far better shape than the Cowboys who will really miss Tyron Smith. Dak Prescott won't have Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott is trending in the wrong direction. The under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in four straight home games versus Tampa Bay.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on LAC.

I expect the Raiders to be competitive in the AFC West this season, with Davante Adams teaming up with Derek Carr their offense might be great. This is just a terrible matchup for them in Week 1 on the road at LA. The mediocre Raiders offensive line versus the fearsome pass rush of the Chargers is a recipe for disaster for Derek Carr. Historically LA starts off hot, the Chargers are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. The Raiders lost 28-14 at LA last season, and a similar score should be expected here in Week 1.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on KC.

While I am not all that high on Kansas City this year, I am far less bullish on Arizona. Their offensive line is in shambles, and Kyler Murray turned into a bit of a drama queen in the off-season. They are going to miss DeAndre Hopkins, and I don't know how they can keep up to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. The Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last six overall. The coaching matchup with Andy Reid vs Kliff Kingsbury is another mismatch in favor of the visitors. I'll take KC to get the W. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on MIN.

The Packers come into Minnesota as a road favorite, and given the receiving corps Aaron Rodgers has to work with, I think this line is way off. Remember how Aaron Rodgers started off last season, could it be Deja Vu all over again? Kirk Cousins doesn't get any respect, and it seems like people forget that the Vikes have studs at WR, and one of the better running backs in the league. The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two rivals.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

There is some optimism that the Lions will be better this year, particularly on offense. There is still plenty of reason to be skeptical of their defense. The Eagles come in with plenty of weapons, and they are projected to have the best offensive line in football. They should get their points. The Eagles scored 44 points at Detroit last year, and these two teams have gone over in eight straight head to head meetings. The over is 16-7 in Lions last 23 home games, and they have gone over in 16 of their last 21 season openers. You know they say that History Repeats Itself!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Buffalo.

The Rams won a dozen games, finishing first in the NFC West and winning the Super Bowl last season. They will try to be the first back-to-back champions since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005. Statistically, it’s more likely that the team that won the Super Bowl the previous season misses the playoffs than it is for them to repeat as champions. Seven teams have won back-to-back Super Bowls, while nine teams since 1990 have won the Super Bowl and gone on to miss the playoffs. While the Rams look to avoid a Super Bowl Hangover, the Bills are looking to bounce back after being ousted by the Chiefs in last year's playoffs. The Bills are the only team heading into 2022 with a top 5 ranked offense and defense. They used two of their top three draft picks on defensive players, and the addition of veteran Von Miller will help the pass rush. Buffalo ranked 1st in the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 17 points per game last season. The Bills also ranked 1st in passing defense allowing just 163 passing yards per game. Josh Allen threw for 4,407 yards and 36 TDs last season, and he ran for another six scores on 122 carries for 763 yards. He delivered in the biggest game of his life (against KC), and he comes into the 2022 season as the MVP favorite (+700).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on LAR.

The Bengals have had an impressive run, and I don't want to suggest that they don't deserve to be in the Super Bowl. That being said, it would be naive not to admit that they caught more than a few breaks along the way. Joe Burrow was sacked nine times in the win over Tennessee, and the Titans handed them the game by turning the ball over three times. They were trailing by double digits in the final minute of the first half at Kansas City, and the Chiefs failed to get any points with a 1st and goal at the 1. The Bengals weakness is their offensive line, and they match up against the scariest pass rush in the NFL. It seems like it's asking a hell of a lot of Joe Burrow to stay cool under pressure here in the Super Bowl. The Bengals have to try to contain Cooper Kupp, and they haven't been very successful against opposing WR1 in the playoffs. Hunter Renfrow had eight catches for 58 yards in the Wild Card Game. In the Divisional round it was A.J. Brown going off with five catches for 142 yards and a TD. In the AFC Championship Game Tyreek Hill caught seven passes for 78 yards and a TD. Now it's asking a lot of Eli Apple to cover the league's best receiver in the Super Bowl. My money is on the Rams and I don't think it will be close.

I also have the following props:

- Cooper Kupp Anytime TD

- Rams 1st Half Alternative ATS -6.5

- Burrow over 0.5 INT

- Rams Team total over 27.5.

GL,

Jesse Schule