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My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Colorado at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

This is a pretty standard total for a game at Coors Field but I believe it will prove too high on Wednesday night. The Rockies fell short last night and continue to struggle at the plate, ranking last in the majors in both weighted on base average and isolated power over the last seven days. They'll face an elite opposing starting pitcher in Hunter Brown on Wednesday. Brown made five starts in June, allowing just four earned runs in 30 1/3 innings of work with those five games totalling 1, 8, 5, 5 and 3 runs. Austin Gomber will counter for Colorado. He catches the Astros in middling form at the dish right now, sitting 19th in wOBA and 15th in ISO over the last week. Gomber has made three starts since returning from the I.L. His overall numbers are bad but that's thanks to one awful outing against the Diamondbacks. In his other two starts he gave up just one earned run on six hits over 10 innings against the Dodgers and Braves. Both bullpens have been respectable lately with the Astros relief corps posting a 3.68 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over the last week and the Rockies 'pen logging a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Tuesday.

I'm anticipating a well-pitched game as the Twins and Marlins open their series in Miami on Tuesday. Joe Ryan gets the start for the visiting Twins. He owns a 3.22 FIP and 0.89 WHIP in 16 appearances this season and tossed an economical six innings of shutout ball against the Mariners last time out, needing only 93 pitches to get through - the third time in his last four starts he's tossed 93 or fewer pitches. Edward Cabrera will counter for Miami. He's always had potential but has yet to really put it together consistently at the big league level. The good news is, he's pitching at home, where he has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings over his last two starts against the Phillies and Giants. He's seen four of his last five home starts total seven runs or less. Both bullpens are in good shape right now with the Twins having logged a 2.70 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over the last week and the Marlins posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the same stretch. Both teams were idle yesterday so it should be 'all hands on deck' on Tuesday. Take the under (8*).

East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Hamilton at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

The Alouettes have jumped out to a 3-0 start and will play their third straight road game on Friday in Hamilton. I think we can count on some regression from the Als offense in this one after they scored 39 and 38 points in their last two games. Note that the Tiger-Cats have had an extra week to prepare for this contest thanks to an early season bye week. Hamilton is off to an 0-2 start so it will be desperately trying to turn things around here. I don't have a great deal of confidence in the Ti-Cats offense against what has been a terrific Als defense. Montreal did allow 22 points in the fourth quarter against Edmonton last week, although two touchdowns came after the game was all but out of reach. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

With the uncertainty surrounding Caitlin Clark's injury status and both teams coming off 'under' results, we're working with a reasonably low total in Friday's clash in Dallas. We'll back the 'over' as I like Indiana's chances of bouncing back following last night's 'upset' home loss against Los Angeles but also question whether the Fever can turn things around defensively having allowed nine of their last 11 opponents to connect on 29 or more field goals. Dallas has drawn a favorable schedule lately in terms of offensively capable opponents and has thrived defensively as a result. I do think the Wings are in for a challenge here, however, as these two teams meet for the first time this season. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Indiana at 7 pm et on Thursday.

I like the way this game sets up as a lower-scoring affair than expected as the Sparks look to snap their four-game losing streak and the Fever return home on just one day of rest following a three-game western road swing. While Indiana's offense has come around, even with Caitlin Clark mired in a shooting slump, its defense needs to right the ship in order to continue to win games. This is a fine bounce-back spot in that regard as they look to slow what has been an uneven Sparks offense. Los Angeles did knock down 32 field goals in a loss to Chicago two nights ago but had been held to 24 or less made field goals in three straight games prior to that. Los Angeles is in desperate need of a defensive turnaround having allowed four straight opponents to knock down 30+ field goals. I do think this is a favorable spot given the Fever's quick turnaround following a road trip. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8 pm et on Sunday.

We were talking about totals in the high-220's to open this series but will not surprisingly see the lowest posted total of the series so far in Sunday's seventh-and-deciding game. We already know what the Thunder are capable of offensively, particularly at home where they've gotten off 94 or more field goal attempts in two of three games in this series, scoring 120+ points on both of those occasions. The honus will be on the Pacers to contribute enough offensively to push this one 'over' the total and I'm confident they can. Game 6 served as somewhat of a breakthrough performance for Indiana offensively as it got off 92 field goal attempts - its highest volume of the series by far (its previous high was 85 in Game 3). While Game 7's often take on a defensive tone, I think this game ultimately amounts to the Thunder jumping ahead and forcing the Pacers to speed up in catch-up mode most of the way. Take the over (8*).

N.L. Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Sunday.

The presence of Shohei Ohtani on the mound for the Dodgers helps keep this total lower than it probably should be. The Nationals picked up a victory to even this series at a game apiece last night. Washington ranks fourth in the majors in isolated power over the last week while the Dodgers sit just three spots behind in seventh. Ohtani doesn't figure to work deep into this ball game as the Dodgers continue to ease him back into the starting rotation. Of note, the Los Angeles bullpen has been anything but lights out lately, logging a 4.96 ERA over the last week. Michael Soroka starts for the Nationals on Sunday. He's been as wild as it gets, issuing five walks and hitting four batters while also getting tagged for four home runs over his last two starts, spanning just 11 innings. On the campaign, Soroka owns a lofty 4.92 FIP and gives up just shy of 2.0 home runs per nine innings. Behind Soroka is a Nats' bullpen that has posted a collective 5.32 ERA over the last week. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll back the 'over' as the Sparks and Lynx meet for the third time this season on Saturday in Minnesota. The 'over' has already cashed in the first two matchups between these two teams and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday. The Sparks have played 'matador-like' defense this season and have gotten even worse lately, allowing four of their last five opponents to knock down more than 30 field goals and their last two to connect on a whopping 41 and 39 field goals, respectively. Offensively, Los Angeles will need to rebound here after making good on just 21-of-64 field goal attempts in Tuesday's 98-67 loss at home against Seattle. While the Lynx are a terrific defensive team, I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order considering they've already defeated the Sparks by double-digits twice this season and check in off consecutive wins (and covers) at home. Despite the recent lopsided victories, the Lynx have kept their foot on the gas, hoisting up 72 and 76 field goal attempts in those two contests. There's little reason to believe the Sparks defense can serve as a speedbump here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and B.C. at 7 pm et on Saturday.

We saw 54 total points in this same matchup last week as the Blue Bombers offense thrived in a blowout win over the Lions. B.C. will be forced to hand the keys to the offense over to QB Jeremiah Masoli after Nathan Rourke suffered an injury. I fully expect the Lions to scale back their offensive playbook as a result and perhaps lean on their defense to keep this game competitive on Saturday. Having seen the Bombers offense led by Chris Streveler just last week, the Lions will need to make defensive adjustments here. Whether it is enough to secure a bounce-back win remains to be seen, but I do think we'll see a lower-scoring affair than we witnessed last week. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Calgary at 4 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams are headed in opposite directions right now with the Redblacks sitting at 0-2 and the Stampeders at 2-0. Optimism was running high in Ottawa ahead of the 2025 campaign with QB Dru Brown set to lead the offense to new heights. So far, not so good as Brown is hurt (Dustin Crum will start on Saturday) and the offense could muster only 18 points in last week's blowout loss to Montreal in its home opener. Calgary was projected by most to pull up the rear in the CFL and while that could still turn out to be the case, there's no denying the Stampeders have looked good on both sides of the football through two weeks of the season. Calgary went on the road and held the defending champion Argonauts to just 19 points in last week's victory. That performance looks even better after Toronto put up 32 points in last night's narrow defeat against Saskatchewan. The last meeting between these teams produced 60 points last August but I expect nothing of the sort on Saturday at McMahon Stadium. Take the under (8*).

N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

The weather forecast is playing a big role in this total sitting at 9, with temperatures expected to hover in the 90's along with a breeze blowing out to left-center. While weather is always something to consider, I don't expect it to be the deciding factor in terms of the total on Saturday afternoon. The Reds will turn to Brent Suter in an 'opener' role in this one. While Cincinnati's bullpen hasn't been great this season, it hasn't been a train-wreck either, sporting a 4.16 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with nine saves converted and four blown on the road. The Reds will need a strong pitching performance here in an effort to keep this game competitive because I don't anticipate them scoring a ton of runs off Sonny Gray and the Cardinals pitching staff. Gray comes off arguably his worst start of the campaign as he allowed six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in Milwaukee last time out (that game actually totalled just six runs). Gray's last four outings have resulted in totals of 7, 2, 5 and 6 runs. Prior to his last start, Gray had tossed 13 1/3 shutout innings over his last two outings. Note that the Reds have produced only 33 runs in 11 division road games this season. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have produced just 143 runs and 31 home runs in 36 afternoon affairs here in 2025. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Chicago at 1 pm et on Saturday.

The Mercury stretched their winning streak to four games with a stunning 'upset' victory in New York two nights ago. That also marked their second straight 'over' result. We'll call for a change of pace here and back the 'under' as Phoenix wraps up its four-game road trip in Chicago. While the Mercury did put up 89 points in Thursday's victory, it actually shot just under 42% from the field. You would have to go back four games to find the last time Phoenix connected on more than 30 field goals. While Chicago has been one of the league's worst teams this season, it has played better defense of late, holding two straight and four of its last six foes to fewer than 30 made field goals. The Sky offense remains a mess. Yes, they knocked down 30 field goals in a home loss to the Mystics last time out but they haven't eclipsed that number since May 29th against Dallas. In fact, the 'under' has cashed in each of Chicago's last five games, a streak I expect to see continue here. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Friday.

The Twins offense exploded in yesterday's rout of the Reds to avoid the sweep in Cincinnati. We'll look for their bats to cool off on Friday as they return home to pitcher-friendly Target Field to take on the Brewers. Rookie Jacob Misiorowski will take the ball for Milwaukee. He had a nice big league debut as he allowed four walks but no hits over five shutout innings. I think he can build off that performance here in his first road start. The Twins will hand the ball to Joe Ryan. He had a rough outing against the Blue Jays two starts back but rebounded nicely against the Astros last time out, allowing just two hits and needing only 93 pitches to get through seven innings in a low-scoring 3-2 defeat at home. This is a favorable matchup for Ryan at home as he challenges a middling Brewers offense. Look for the starters to perform well and the bullpens to take care of the rest in this interleague affair. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday.

I expect the Fever to have their way offensively with the expansion Valkyries as these two teams meet for the first time on Thursday night. With that being said, Golden State doesn't figure to roll over in this underdog spot. The Valkyries had their three-game winning streak snapped in an 80-71 loss in Dallas two nights ago but should rebound with a good effort here. Consider that three of Golden State's best offensive performances of the season have come in its last four contests. In its last two home games it staged upset wins over Las Vegas and Seattle, knocking down 34-of-71 field goals against the Aces and 28-of-58 against the Storm. The Fever did hold a bad Connecticut offense in check last time out but I'm not sure a repeat performance can be counted on away from home on Thursday. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 of this series really had no business getting 'over' the total but thankfully a second half scoring explosion helped it along to cash our ticket. We'll go the other way in Game 6 on Thursday as the Pacers look to stave off elimination, perhaps without the services of star Tyrese Haliburton. If ever there were a spot for Indiana to make a game as ugly as possible, this would be it. We know they're capable of doing just that as we've seen it throughout the playoffs as they've employed a very physical brand of basketball. They can ill afford to allow the Thunder to get off 90+ field goal attempts again as they did in Game 5. Of note, the Pacers have held the Thunder to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games in this series. In fact, Indiana has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma City has been even better in that regard, limiting Indiana to less than 40 made field goals in four of five games in this series. Better yet, the Thunder have allowed 40 or fewer made field goals in 19 of their last 23 contests. You would have to go back eight games to find OKC allowing an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Thursday.

This has been an incredibly low-scoring series so far as the Nationals continue their June swoon. I look for that to change on Thursday afternoon. The forecast calls for temperatures approaching 90 degrees along with a fairly strong breeze blowing out to right-center at Nationals Park. The conditions are ripe for a slugfest between these two National League clubs. Note that Rockies rookie Chase Dollander already faced the Nats once this season. He was chased after four innings in that game as he gave up nine runs, six of them earned in a wild 12-11 loss. The table is set for late runs in this contest as well with the Rockies bullpen having posted a 5.96 ERA and 1.44 WHIP over the last week and the Nats' countering with a 7.03 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a predictably low-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Guardians held on for a 3-2 victory. Look for more offensive fireworks in Wednesday's contest as we have a subpar starting pitching matchup with Logan Allen going for the Guardians against Justin Verlander, just returning from injury, for the Giants. It looks like an ideal night for baseball at Oracle Park with clear skies and the wind blowing out directly to center. Of note, the Giants rank top-five in baseball in weighted on base average over the last seven days and only got stronger with the acquisition of Rafael Devers from Boston on Sunday. Devers contributed an RBI double in last night's contest. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Florida at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 5 of this series had no business getting 'over' the total but for the fifth straight time in this series, it did, and now the Oilers are on the brink of falling short of their goal once again, down 3-2 in the series against the defending Stanley Cup champion Panthers. We'll call for a lower-scoring contest (finally) in Game 6 on Tuesday. Note that Edmonton has allowed fewer goals per game, albeit slightly, on the road compared to at home this season while also producing fewer gpg. Oddly enough it's the same story for the Panthers at home. Edmonton is in uncharted territory right now as it comes off six straight 'over' results - it's longest such streak of the season (it's previous high was five and that was followed by a five-game 'under' streak). The Panthers have also seen six straight games go 'over' the total and that matches their longest streak of the campaign. Take the under (10*).

A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Royals are reeling right now, fresh off consecutive series sweeps at home against the Yankees and Athletics. They'll hit the road on Tuesday as they open a series against the Rangers in Texas. That doesn't bode particularly well for their struggling offense as the Rangers pitching staff has been terrific this season. Jack Leiter takes the ball for Texas on Tuesday. He owns a 4.47 FIP and 1.24 WHIP but has limited the damage, allowing less than 3.9 runs per nine innings. Behind Leiter is a Rangers bullpen that has been lights out lately, logging a collective 2.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP over the last week. Kansas City will pin its hopes on starter Seth Lugo. The veteran right-hander has posted a pedestrian 4.78 FIP to go along with a more respectable 1.15 WHIP and like Leiter, has worked in and out of some trouble, holding opponents to just over 3.4 runs per nine innings. The Rangers bats have been relatively quiet for the most part this season so this could be a positive spot for Lugo. Kansas City's bullpen owns a 4.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over the last week but can't shoulder all of the blame as the Royals bats have done next-to-nothing. On the season, the Royals 'pen has posted a 3.18 ERA on the road with nine saves converted and only three blown. Both teams check in off an off day on Monday so it should be 'all hands on deck' in the later stages of this one. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

We've seen the 'under' cash in the last two games in this series but I think a change of scenery back to Oklahoma City will lead to a more up-tempo affair in Game 5 on Monday. Keep in mind, the Thunder got off a whopping 98 field goal attempts in their narrow Game 1 loss here at home. The next game in OKC went 'over' the total with the Thunder winning in lopsided fashion. We've seen the pace bog down a little bit over the last two games. The Pacers, for as much as they'd like to turn this into a slugfest, have only had mixed results in doing so in this series. Here, I think Indiana knows it is going to need to get loose offensively to have any chance at pushing OKC to the brink of elimination in Game 6. We haven't seen three straight Pacers games stay 'under' the total since March. Meanwhile, the Thunder haven't posted three straight 'under' results since the second round against Denver. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Las Vegas at 6 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams enter this game riding three-game 'over' streaks but I look for a different story to unfold as they match up on Sunday. Las Vegas has been one of the league's worst offensive teams this season and A'ja Wilson remains questionable to play on Sunday as she works through concussion protocol. Note that the Aces have connected on fewer than 30 field goals in all but one of their nine games to date this season. Las Vegas will undoubtedly be focused on rectifying its poor defensive play after allowing three straight opponents to connect on 33 or more field goals. Seattle comes off a strong offensive effort in a win and cover against Dallas. Note that the Mercury have been relatively inconsistent offensively this season, however, having yet to connect on 30+ field goals in consecutive games. We can expect their best defensive effort here as they check in off three full days' rest. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Al Ahly and Inter Miami at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We'll lay the juice to back the 'over' at a very reasonable number on Friday as the FIFA Club World Cup kicks off in Miami. Inter Miami enters this contest having not recorded a clean sheet in any of its last 10 matches. In fact, each of its last nine contests have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both sides finding the back of the net in eight of those contests. On the flip side, Al Ahly has seen five of its last seven matches go 'over' 2.5 total goals. Also of note, it has been first to score in six of its last eight contests. The goal here will certainly be to put Inter Miami on its back foot early. While that's a tall task, I do think Al Ahly can find the back of the net once to help this total along. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between the Athletics and Kansas City at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

We saw plenty of offense in last night's game between these two teams and we'll call for more of the same on Saturday. Jacob Lopez will take the ball for the Athletics. He owns a 5.62 FIP and 1.71 WHIP this season and has allowed well north of 7.0 runs per nine innings. Michael Lorenzen has been good but certainly not great for the Royals, posting a 4.75 FIP and 1.38 WHIP while allowing 5.2 runs per nine frames. Meanwhile, both bullpens have struggled lately with the A's relief corps posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over the last week and the Royals' recording a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Florida at 8 pm et on Thursday.

I really like the way this play sets up on Thursday after the first three games in this series all went 'over' the total. After giving up six goals in a blowout loss in Game 3 and facing what is close to a 'must win' situation in Game 4, I look for the Oilers to respond defensively. Keep in mind, they've held opponents to just 2.9 goals per game on the road this season, with the 'under' going 27-23-1. The Panthers were stingy in Game 3 and that's about par for the course here at home where they've allowed just 2.4 goals per game this season. From my perspective, Panthers all-world goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky once again looks like he's rounding into form - at precisely the right time. I don't expect anything to come easy for Edmonton here. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Thursday.

The two starters in this matchup have done a masterful job of limiting the damage this season. Andrew Heaney of the Pirates owns a 4.38 FIP and 1.15 WHIP but has given up just north of 3.2 runs per nine innings. Jameson Taillon has posted a 4.84 FIP and 0.98 WHIP and has held opponents just under 3.7 runs per nine frames. Both bullpens are in terrific form right now with the Pirates relief corps having posted a 1.52 ERA and 0.72 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week and the Cubs 'pen having logged a 1.08 ERA and 1.24 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Thursday.

We'll take a flyer on the 'over' in Thursday's series finale between the Yankees and Royals at Kaufman Stadium. Seth Lugo will get the nod for the Royals. He's had a tough first half of the season, logging a 4.86 FIP and 1.17 WHIP in 11 starts. While the veteran right-hander has managed to limit the damage somewhat, holding opponents to just over 3.7 runs per nine innings, he runs into a very difficult matchup against the Yankees on Thursday. New York starter Will Warren got off to a fine start to the campaign but the wheels have come off a little bit since. Warren owns a respectable 3.34 FIP but a 1.41 WHIP and gives up over 5.6 runs per nine innings. Both bullpens are in poor form. The Yankees relief corps has logged a 5.23 ERA and 1.69 WHIP over the last week while the Royals 'pen owns a similar 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the over (8*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 2 of this series managed to sneak 'over' the total thanks to an incredibly high-scoring second half. I expect a different story to unfold now that this series is tied up at one game apiece and the scene shifts to Indiana for Game 3 on Wednesday. I think both teams were probably content with the pace at which Game 2 was played. The Thunder and Pacers got off an identical 82 field goal attempts but the difference was Oklahoma City's exceptional shooting efficiency (it knocked down 40-of-82 FG attempts). Of note, the Pacers have now held three straight and 17 of their last 20 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Their physical brand of defense has translated to postseason success to be sure. The Thunder remain an elite defensive team and they showed it on Sunday, limiting the Pacers to 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held three straight and 17 of their last 20 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts while the Pacers have hoisted up 85 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven contests. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a wild extra innings affair between these two teams last night and I think we're in for another high-scoring contest on Tuesday. Logan Evans will take the ball for Seattle. He owns a 4.73 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in six starts during his rookie campaign. Evans has allowed just over 4.1 runs per nine innings. Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. He checks in sporting a 4.95 FIP and 1.36 WHIP and has given up north of 5.9 runs per nine frames. Neither bullpen has held up well lately. The Mariners relief corps owns a 4.56 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last week while the D'Backs 'pen has posted a 5.61 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over the same stretch. One way or another, we'll call for offensive fireworks again on Tuesday. Take the over (8*).

A.L. Total of the Week. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' 4.5 runs between New York and Kansas City at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

We have an excellent starting pitching matchup to open this series on Tuesday. Max Fried takes the ball for New York. He's having another Cy Young Award-caliber season with a 2.79 FIP and 0.94 WHIP through 13 starts. Fried has allowed just a shade over 2.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart on Tuesday will be rookie Noah Cameron. To say he has impressed in his first five big league starts would be an understatement. Cameron owns a 3.64 FIP and 0.79 WHIP and has yielded just under 0.9 runs per nine innings. With both bullpens struggling lately (both have posted ERA's north of four over the last week), we'll elect to play the first five innings 'under' only on Tuesday. Take the first five innings under 4.5 runs (10*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'over' 4.5 runs between Tampa Bay and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

We'll call for plenty of offensive fireworks in the early stages of this divisional showdown on Monday in Boston. Shane Baz gets the nod for the visiting Rays. He owns a 5.01 FIP and 1.36 WHIP while allowing just a shade under 5.0 runs per nine innings this season. Bello hasn't been much better, recording a 4.81 FIP and 1.59 WHIP while giving up 4.3 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens are in good shape right now, bringing excellent current form so we'll avoid the latter stages and back the first five innings 'over' only. Take the first five innings over 4.5 runs (8*).

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Dallas at 4 pm et on Sunday.

The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 166 points in a narrow Minnesota victory back on May 21st. I don't think enough of an adjustment has been made to the total as the Wings shot poorly in that contest but do enter this rematch 'filling it up' offensively even if the wins haven't followed. Dallas has made good on 30+ field goals in two straight and five of its last six games overall. On the flip side, the Wings have played matador-like defense, allowing four straight opponents to connect on 30+ field goals. That spells trouble as they prepare to host a Lynx squad that has knocked down 30+ field goals in three of its last four games and despite not playing at a particularly fast pace has scored 86 and 88 points over its last two contests. The door is wide open for a high-scoring affair in Dallas on Sunday. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Arizona and Cincinnati at 1:40 pm et on Sunday.

Both of Sunday's starters, Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks and Brady Singer for the Reds, have struggled for the most part this season. Gallen owns a 4.53 FIP and 1.33 WHIP, yielding a disappointing 5.5 runs per nine innings. Singer checks in sporting a 4.31 FIP and 1.34 WHIP, allowing 5.1 runs per nine frames. There's little reason to expect a sudden turnaround at the bandbox that is Great American Ballpark on Sunday afternoon. We'll back the 'over' in the first five innings only as the Reds bullpen has admittedly been outstanding lately, sporting a collective 1.69 ERA and 0.80 WHIP across 21 1/3 innings over the last week. Take the first five innings over (8*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Chicago at 8 pm et on Saturday.

The first meeting between these two teams produced just 151 total points easily staying 'under' the closing total of 169.5. I don't think we're seeing nearly enough of an adjustment to the total in this rematch with the Fever missing a number of key contributors including Caitlin Clark. Indiana does come off a win and cover against Washington but what's most notable is the way it has slowed things down lately, hoisting up fewer than 60 field goal attempts while also holding the opposition to 60 or fewer field goal attempts in consecutive games. The Fever's last two opponents have shot the lights out but now they draw one of the worst shooting teams in the league in Chicago. The Sky do check in off consecutive games in which they scored 94+ points but both of those came against Dallas - one of the league's worst defensive teams. Expect this to be more of a slugfest. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Chicago at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a potentially low-scoring affair between the Royals and White Sox. Michael Wacha will take the ball for Kansas City. He's been outstanding this season with a 3.40 FIP and 1.17 WHIP while allowing just under 2.9 runs per nine innings. Adrian Houser makes his fourth start for the White Sox. He has posted a 2.37 FIP and 0.98 WHIP, giving up a minuscule 1.5 runs per nine innings. The two bullpens enter in solid form with the Royals 'pen having posted a 1.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over the last week and the White Sox checking in with a 3.29 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

We won with the Pirates on the run-line in this matchup last night and will come back with a different play on Saturday as we take the first five innings 'under' the total. Ranger Suarez starts for Philadelphia. He continues to pitch well since a rocky first outing. He's seen his FIP drop to 2.53 and his WHIP to 1.18 over his last five outings. On the season he's allowing less than three runs per nine innings. Andrew Heaney will counter for Pittsburgh. He's also been solid this season, particularly at keeping traffic off the basepaths. While Heaney's 4.45 FIP leaves a lot to be desired he has recorded a solid 1.19 WHIP and has allowed just under 3.4 runs per nine innings. Neither bullpen has impressed lately (both have collective ERA's north of four over the last week) so we'll avoid the relief corps' and back the first five innings 'under' on Saturday. Take the first five innings under (8*).

Stanley Cup Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Edmonton at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Game 1 of this series was as high-octane and eventful as most expected as the Oilers rallied from a 3-1 second period deficit to win 4-3 in overtime. I don't think either team is interested in a carbon copy of that affair in Game 2 on Friday. Credit the two goaltenders in the series-opener as despite the seven total goals they both played well (the two teams combined to fire 78 shots on goal). While the 'over' has cashed in the Oilers last two games they haven't seen three straight games go 'over' the total since a four-game 'over' streak to open the postseason against the Kings in late April. While both teams are known for their offensive prowess, we've seen the Panthers hold the opposition to just 2.8 goals per game on the road and the Oilers limit their foes to 2.9 goals per contest on home ice. We'll call for this series to take a more defensive tone in Game 2 on Friday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Montreal at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

We saw a high-scoring affair between the RedBlacks and Roughriders to open the 2025 CFL season last night and while that result has no bearing on the outcome of Friday's matchup, I do expect a different story to unfold in Montreal. The Alouettes remain loaded defensively and job number one will be taking down the defending Grey Cup champion Argonauts at home on Friday night. Toronto lost a number of key pieces from the defense that led it to last year's championship. With that being said, the cupboard is by no means bare and I'm not quite as sold on the Als offense as some. Montreal moved on from veteran QB Cody Fajardo in the offseason, handing over the reins to Davis Alexander. I do expect some growing pains from the Montreal offense in the early going this season. Meanwhile, the Argos will need to tread water until QB Chad Kelly can return. Count on them to do all they can to grind it out on offense and stage an 'upset' victory here in Week 1. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Houston and Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Thursday.

We missed with the 'over' in this matchup last night as both teams squandered a number of scoring opportunities in a low-scoring Pirates victory. Here, we'll count on another slow start offensively as we have a fine starting pitching matchup featuring Framber Valdez for the Astros and Mitch Keller for the Pirates. Valdez owns a 3.24 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the season. The problem for the Astros right now is not their starting pitching but their bullpen. The Houston 'pen has posted a 10.89 ERA and 1.74 WHIP over the last seven days. We'll look to avoid that group by only playing the first five innings 'under' on Thursday. Keller owns a 3.20 FIP and 1.26 WHIP on the campaign. Much like the Astros, the Pirates 'pen has struggled lately (last night notwithstanding). Take the first five innings under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

In a game that projects to be somewhat lopsided in the hometown Thunder's favor, I expect to see them dictate the tempo and ultimately keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Yes, the Pacers have thrived offensively in these playoffs and they've done so against strong competition. However, there's no comparing the likes of Milwaukee, Cleveland and New York to Oklahoma City. The Thunder are a different team defensively. For the Pacers to contend in the early stages of this series, they're going to have to make things a little ugly and we have seen them thrive in physical environments in these playoffs. Indiana does have one thing going for it as it knows how to throw its weight around and I think this series-opener ultimately turns into a bit of a scrap. Note that the Thunder check in having held six of their last seven and 11 of their last 14 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time the Pacers allowed an opponent to get off 90+ field goal attempts. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between Kansas City and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Thursday.

I like the way this starting pitching matchup sets up in the finale of Thursday's double-header in St. Louis. Two left-handers will take the mound, Cole Ragans for the Royals and Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals. Ragans checks in sporting a 1.98 FIP and 1.20 WHIP and all indications are that he's good to go after recovering from a groin injury. Even if he does falter a bit early, the Royals 'pen has been lights out lately, sporting a 1.69 ERA and 1.25 WHIP over the last week (entering Thursday's action). Liberatore has been quietly effective for the Cardinals, posting a 2.65 FIP and 1.06 WHIP while yielding just under 3.4 runs per nine innings. We'll look to avoid the Cards 'pen with this play as they've posted a 10.03 ERA and 2.23 WHIP over the last seven days. Take the first five innings under (8*).

American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Thursday.

I believe this total will prove too high as we have a better pitching matchup than most anticipate. Jack Leiter starts for the Rangers. He owns a 4.25 FIP to go along with a 1.20 WHIP and has yielded just under 3.7 runs per nine innings. Ryan Pepiot has posted almost identical numbers for the Rays but has actually allowed just 3.3 runs per nine frames. The two bullpens are in fine recent form with the Rangers relief corps having logged a sparkling 1.04 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over the last week and the Rays not far behind with a 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, needing to work just 14 1/3 innings over that stretch. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 3:45 pm et on Thursday.

We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams at Oracle Park last night. I expect nothing of the sort on Thursday, however. Dylan Cease will take the ball for the Padres against Robbie Ray of the Giants. Both have pitched well this season with Cease having posted a 3.29 FIP and 1.29 WHIP and Ray sporting a 3.06 FIP and 1.11 WHIP. Meanwhile, the two bullpens have been reliable lately. The Padres relief corps owns a sparkling 1.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over the last week. The Giants 'pen has posted a 1.42 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over the same stretch. That WHIP is a little concerning but I do like the fact that the San Fran 'pen has been in action for only 19 innings over the last week. Take the under (8*).

N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the first five innings 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We've won with the full game 'under' in each of the first two contests in this series. We'll take a slightly different route on Wednesday as we back the first five innings 'under' only. Nick Pivetta starts for San Diego. He's having a renaissance season having posted a 2.96 FIP and 1.01 WHIP, quite honestly putting him in the N.L. Cy Young Award conversation even if it is early. Kyle Harrison has stepped in and done a nice job boosting the Giants rotation, recording a 3.91 FIP and 0.98 WHIP in six appearances including two recent starts. He's giving up just over 2.5 runs per nine innings. While both bullpens have been solid lately, the Padres relief corps is entering 'overworked' territory having logged just shy of 27 innings over the last week. Meanwhile, the Giants 'pen owns a sparkling 1.47 ERA but an inflated 1.53 WHIP over the same stretch. Take the first five innings under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these teams last night as the Orioles cruised to an 'upset' victory. Expect more in the way of offense in Wednesday's rematch. Cade Povich starts for Baltimore. He has struggled to the tune of a 4.46 FIP and 1.53 WHIP this season, allowing just north of 5.8 runs per nine innings. Mariners starter Emerson Hancock owns a 5.11 FIP and 1.57 WHIP while allowing 5.6 runs per nine frames. Neither bullpen looks all that confident. The O's relief corps has been better lately but owns a 5.36 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the road this season. The M's 'pen has posted a 6.92 ERA and 1.81 WHIP over the last week. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the first five innings 'over' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday.

We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night but we'll go the other way and back the 'over' in the first five innings only on Wednesday. The starting pitching matchup leaves a lot to be desired with Kumar Rocker going for the Rangers against Shane Baz of the Rays. Rocker owns a 4.32 FIP and 1.75 WHIP in five starts this season, yielding a whopping 8.6 runs per nine innings. Baz hasn't been much better with a 5.08 FIP and 1.38 WHIP, giving up just shy of 5.0 runs per nine innings. With both bullpens in excellent form we'll avoid the late innings in this game. Take the first five innings over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Washington at 6:45 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night but I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. Matthew Boyd takes the ball for the Cubs. He owns a 3.45 FIP and 1.26 WHIP so far this season. MacKenzie Gore will counter for the Nationals. He's been even better than Boyd with a 2.65 FIP and 1.20 WHIP, yielding just under 3.2 runs per nine innings. While the Nationals bullpen does concern us a bit, both teams were idle two days ago so it should be an 'all hands on deck' situation. There are no issues when it comes to the Cubs 'pen as they've logged a sparkling 0.44 ERA and 0.48 WHIP over the last week. Take the under (8*).

Interleague Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Pittsburgh at 6:40 pm et on Wednesday.

On a balmy Pittsburgh evening where the temperatures are expected to hover in the mid-80's, we'll call for plenty of runs on the board between the Astros and Pirates. Ryan Gusto gets the start for Houston. He owns a 4.46 FIP and 1.56 WHIP on the season, allowing 5.3 runs per nine innings. His counterpart will be Mike Burrows who gets another spot start for the Buccos. Burrows has not been good, posting an 8.35 FIP and 1.56 WHIP while giving up a ridiculous 9.7 runs per nine innings (albeit in a small sample size of just 8 1/3 innings). The two bullpens couldn't be in much worse form. The Astros 'pen has posted an 11.29 ERA and 1.96 WHIP over the last week while the Pirates relief corps' has logged a 6.10 ERA and 1.36 WHIP with no saves converted and one blown over that stretch. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Cincinnati at 12:40 pm et on Wednesday.

While the weather forecast favors the hitters with temperatures soaring into the mid-80's, we'll call for another low-scoring affair between the Brewers and Reds. Brewers 'opener' D.L. Hall has pitched just 5 1/3 innings this season but he's fared well with a 2.88 FIP and 0.94 WHIP. Note that the Brewers bullpen has performed well lately, sporting a 3.42 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with two saves converted and none blown over the last week. Andrew Abbott counters for the Reds. He is quietly putting together a terrific season having logged a 3.13 FIP and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts. Abbott checks in allowing fewer than two runs per nine innings. The Reds 'pen has been outstanding lately, posting a collective 2.45 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the last seven days. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Tuesday.

We won with the 'under' in this matchup last night and we'll come right back with the same play on Tuesday. Ryan Bergert gets the start for the Padres, perhaps in an 'opener' role. That's just fine as he's been sharp in limited work this season and the bullpen behind him is in good shape having posted a 1.78 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over the last week. It's a similar story for the Giants bullpen, having logged a 0.54 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over the last seven days. Landen Roupp starts for San Francisco on Tuesday. His last three starts have produced a grand total of just 12 runs with one of those games including extra innings. Roupp owns a 3.59 FIP and 1.43 WHIP this season and should benefit from facing the Padres at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and St. Louis at 7:45 pm et on Tuesday.

This game sets up as a high-scoring affair as the Royals send Michael Lorenzen to the hill against Andre Pallante of the Cardinals. Both starters have dealt with a lot of traffic on the basepaths this season. Lorenzen owns a 4.50 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. Pallante counters with a 4.73 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. Meanwhile, both bullpens have struggled lately with the Royals relief corps having logged a 4.82 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over the last seven days and the Cards checking in with a 5.87 ERA and 1.63 WHIP over the same stretch. Also note that the weather calls for temperatures well into the 80's with the wind blowing out to left, favoring the hitters on a balmy night in St. Louis. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday.

This total is a shade too high considering the way the pitching matchup sets up. Tyler Mahle and Drew Rasmussen have both impressed this season. Mahle owns a 3.11 FIP and 1.05 WHIP in 12 starts with his new club. Rasmussen has been his consistent self, logging a 3.59 FIP and 0.93 WHIP across 12 outings. Both bullpens are in excellent shape following an off day on Monday. The Rangers 'pen has posted a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over the last week while the Rays relief corps' has logged a 2.38 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over that stretch. Expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday.

I think we're in for a low-scoring start to this N.L. West showdown between the Padres and Giants. Stephen Kolek will get another turn in the starting rotation for San Diego. After a promising start that saw him toss 14 innings of shutout ball in his first two outings this season, the wheels have come off a little bit lately. We'll give him the benefit of the doubt entering this start, however, noting that the Giants aren't really hitting right now, ranking 21st in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. Behind Kolek is one of the deepest bullpens in baseball, currently ranked ninth in the majors in xFIP this season (the Giants have been even better in that department, ranking fourth). Kolek's counterpart on Monday will be Giants ace Logan Webb. He's been a little bit inconsistent this season but as usual, he's pitched exceptionally well at home, logging a 1.39 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in five starts. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring game between these two teams last night with the Dodgers inflicting most of the damage in an 18-2 romp. We'll call for a different story to unfold on Sunday as I simply feel this total is too high considering the way the pitching matchup sets up. Los Angeles will hand the ball to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He's an early contender for the N.L. Cy Young Award as he has posted a 2.74 FIP and 0.91 WHIP through his first 11 outings. He'll be pitching on full rest (five days) on Sunday after needing just 88 pitches to get through six innings in a 7-2 win in Cleveland earlier this week. The Yankees are expected to start Ryan Yarbrough. He's been used as a regular starter rather than in an 'opener' role as we've seen in the past. While his 4.33 FIP leaves a lot to be desired he has posted a solid 1.05 WHIP. Both bullpens are in fairly good shape entering the series finale thanks to the lopsided nature of the first two games of the series. Of course, we're talking about two of baseball's best bullpens with the Dodgers ranking third and the Yankees fifth in relief xFIP this season. Take the under (8*).

Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 7:15 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair to open this series last night but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday. Will Warren will get the start for the visiting Yankees. He owns a 2.71 FIP and 1.26 WHIP in 11 starts this season. No current Dodger hitter has faced the right-hander. You would have to go back four starts to find the last time Warren was involved in a game that went 'over' nine total runs. Landon Knack will counter for Los Angeles. While his overall numbers leave a lot to be desired (4.96 FIP and 1.36 WHIP) he has shown some positive signs lately, holding two of his last four opponents to one earned run or less. Last time out he scattered four hits across six innings, allowing just one earned runs in a road outing against the Mets. Current Yankees hitters have had just four at-bats combined against Knack. The bullpens are key to this play as well with both ranking in the top-five in baseball in xFIP this season. With no reliever having thrown more than 21 pitches in last night's game (and both teams having had an off day on Thursday), this should be an 'all hands on deck' situation. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Baltimore at 4:30 pm et on Friday.

The start time for this game has been moved up a few hours to hopefully avoid the wet weather entering the area in the evening. We'll call for plenty of runs on the board before that. Chicago actually ranks top-five in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. While current White Sox hitters haven't lit it up against Orioles starter Zach Eflin, they might be catching him at the right time. Eflin owns a FIP north of six this season and has been torched for 12 earned runs on 15 hits over his last two starts spanning just 10 1/3 innings of work. The O's bullpen ranks in the bottom half of baseball in terms of xFIP this season (on that note the White Sox are last in the majors in that category). Jared Shuster will counter for Chicago. Current O's hitters haven't seen much of him but that they have seen, they've liked, going 5-for-13 (.385) with a .928 OPS against him. With the forecast calling for mild (temperature approaching 80 degrees), humid conditions and a light breeze blowing out to left, we'll call for a high-scoring affair at Camden Yards. Take the over (8*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and New York at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring affair in Game 4 on Tuesday, similar to what we witnessed in the series-opener (albeit helped along by overtime). We've yet to see consecutive games in this series go 'over' the total, however. I expect that trend to continue here as the Knicks face elimination at home on Thursday. Note that Indiana, while playing incredibly well offensively, has also been a force defensively, holding five of its last six opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 12 foes to 42 or fewer. Not only that, but the Pacers have done an excellent job of limiting the Knicks tempo, holding them to 84, 78 and 82 field goal attempts over the last three games. While New York comes off a terrible defensive effort in Game 4, we can anticipate it rising to the occasion back at home with its back against the wall in Game 5. On a positive note, the Knicks have held seven of their last eight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. They're capable of making this game a little 'uglier' in an effort to stave off elimination on Thursday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Los Angeles at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday.

We've seen a pair of low-scoring games to open this series with the Yankees taking both. I look for a higher-scoring affair on Wednesday as New York sends Clarke Schmidt to the hill against Yusei Kikuchi of the Angels. Schmidt has struggled in seven starts since opening the season on the I.L. He checks in sporting a 4.30 FIP and 1.34 WHIP. While his last couple of starts have been low-scoring reaching just five total runs in each game, he didn't pitch particularly well, allowing five earned runs in 10 2/3 innings. Current Angels hitters haven't seen much of Schmidt but what they have seen, they've liked, going 7-for-16 (.438) with a .971 OPS. The Yankees rank best in baseball in weighted on base average against left-handed pitching this season and should be able to get to Kikuchi. He has struggled to the tune of a 4.34 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Of course, the bullpen behind Kikuchi has been hit hard as well, ranking 26th in the majors in xFIP. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Detroit at 1:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The forecast is calling for temperatures in the 50's and possible drizzle at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park on Wednesday afternoon. We'll call for another low-scoring affair between the Giants and Tigers. Keep in mind, neither team is hitting much right now. The Tigers check in ranked 25th in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days while the Giants sit in 28th over that stretch. We have a fine starting pitching matchup between two young right-handers in Landen Roupp and Jackson Jobe. While neither pitcher is going to mow down the opposition, both have proven capable at the big league level. Meanwhile, the Giants bullpen ranks top-five in the majors in xFIP this season while Detroit's relief corps is a respectable 12th in that department. Expect runs to come at a premium once again. Take the under (8*).

American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday.

The Rays stayed hot at the plate, scoring seven runs in Monday's series-opener. In fact, Tampa Bay ranks second in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days. The Rays draw an unfavorable matchup on Tuesday, however, as Minnesota hands the ball to Joe Ryan. Current Rays hitters are 4-for-28 (.143) with a .414 OPS against the right-hander. Ryan is in excellent form having logged a 3.28 FIP and 0.81 WHIP in 10 appearances this season. He did give up three earned runs over five innings against the Guardians last time out but that only served to snap a stretch of four straight and six of seven starts in which he allowed one earned run or less. Taj Bradley will counter for Tampa Bay. He's catching the Twins at the right time as they rank last in baseball in wOBA over the last seven days. Current Minnesota hitters are 9-for-44 (.205) with a .648 OPS against him. Both bullpens rank in the top half of the majors in xFIP this season. In fact, Minnesota sits in top spot in that category (Tampa Bay checks in 12th). Thanks to the lopsided nature of last night's game most key arms are available for Tuesday's contest. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

The Timberwolves exploded for 143 points in their Game 3 victory on Saturday as the Thunder were unable to match their desperation. I expect a much different type of game to unfold on Monday as Oklahoma City looks to tighten things up once again. The Thunder are an elite defensive team and I'm anticipating a positive response off that blowout loss on Saturday. Note that prior to that contest, the Thunder had limited eight straight 14 of their last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the T'Wolves continue to play well defensively having held 17 consecutive opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of their last 15 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. While the 'over' has cashed in each of the last two games in this series, Minnesota hasn't posted a three-game 'over' streak since March 28th to April 1st. Take the under (8*).

Eastern Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Florida at 8 pm et on Monday.

The Panthers have scored five goals or more in four straight games - their longest such streak of the season - and they'll look to close out the Hurricanes in a sweep on Monday. If Carolina is to have any hope of extending this series it will need to make Monday's game as ugly as possible - hearkening back to the style it employed last round against Washington (its three road wins in that series totalled 3, 4 and 4 goals). While Saturday's game totalled eight goals, the two teams combined to fire just 53 shots on goal. Remember, in Game 2 we saw only 38 shots on goal in the Panthers 5-0 victory. Florida has been elite defensively on home ice this season, holding opponents to just 2.4 goals per game. Meanwhile, Carolina has suffered a significant drop-off in its offensive production away from home where it averages just 2.7 goals per game (compared to its 3.2 goals per game overall scoring average). I'm expecting a 'first to three goals wins' type of affair on Monday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Indiana at 8 pm et on Sunday.

Both of these teams have shot exceptionally well in this series so far. After Game 1 sailed 'over' the total, Game 2 was lower-scoring, achieving an 'under' result - just barely. The pace certainly wasn't there for a high-scoring contest on Friday. The Knicks got off 84 field goal attempts while the Pacers countered with 83. Game 3 of this series is obviously pivotal and I'm confident we'll see both sides tighten the screws defensively. Note that New York has now held five of its last six and 14 of its last 17 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. For its part, Indiana has allowed just two of its last 10 opponents to connect on more than 42 field goals. Take the under (8*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Timberwolves have their backs against the wall after another poor defensive performance in Game 2 of this series to dig themselves an 0-2 hole. Returning home, we can expect Minnesota to tighten things up defensively, keeping in mind, Game 2 marked the first time in 13 games that it had allowed an opponent to connect on more than 41 field goals. On the flip side, I'm not sure the Timberwolves are going to find any quick solutions to break down this Thunder defense. Oklahoma City has held Minnesota to just 29 and 36 made field goals through the first two games of this series and has limited eight straight and 14 of its last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Expect a grind-it-out type of affair as the scene shifts to Minnesota on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

N.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.

We saw a slugfest between these two teams at Great American Ballpark last night and I'm anticipating more of the same on Saturday. Both teams are hitting well and in the case of the Cubs exceptionally so. Chicago checks in ranked second in the majors in weighted on base average over the last seven days while the Reds sit in 12th. The wheels have come off for both bullpens with the two teams ranking in the bottom-third in relief xFIP. Last night's wild affair resulted in five Cubs and six Reds relievers taking the mound. Colin Rea will start for Chicago on Saturday. He has pitched reasonably well this season but draws a difficult matchup against the Reds. Cincinnati hitters have gone 20-for-65 (.308) with a .994 OPS against Rea. It's a similar story for Reds starter Andrew Abbott against current Cubs hitters, albeit with a smaller sample size. They've gone 8-for-23 (.348) with a 1.135 OPS against the left-hander. On a neutral weather day at GAB (temperatures in the low-70's and a light breeze blowing out to right-center) we'll call for plenty of offensive fireworks again. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Final Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday.

The Oilers appeared to have Game 1 under control entering the third period as they were up 3-1 before the Stars exploded for five unanswered goals. I think we'll see Edmonton tighten things up considerably in Game 2 on Friday, keeping in mind that it has been a far better defensive team than most give it credit for as a whole this season, checking in allowing 2.9 goals per game with no drop-off at all away from home. For their part, the Stars have been a force defensively on home ice all season, allowing just 2.4 goals per game at American Airlines Center. Dallas knows if won't be gifted the same type of collapse from Edmonton in Game 2. Keep in mind, prior to Wednesday's series-opener, the Oilers were on a two-game 'under' streak while the Stars had seen three straight contests stay 'under' the total. Look for a return to form from both sides defensively on Friday. Take the under (10*).

A.L. Central Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

Two former first round draft picks will take the mound in Friday's matchup between the Guardians and Tigers. Slade Cecconi gets his second start for Cleveland after coming over from Arizona in the offseason trade that sent Josh Naylor to Arizona. Cecconi looked sharp in his season debut, allowing three earned runs over five innings but striking out eight without a single walk while tossing an economical (by today's standards) 79 pitches. Jackson Jobe counters for Detroit. The 22-year old will be making his ninth start of the season and comes off one of his best as he held the Blue Jays to two earned runs over six innings in a 3-2 win last weekend. Note that the Guardians and Tigers rank 22nd and 23rd, respectively, in weighted on base average over the last week. It's also worth noting that the two bullpens both rank inside the top-12 in xFIP this season. Add in the fact that this game will be played at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park on a night where temperatures will be in the mid-50's, we'll back the 'under'. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Oklahoma City at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Oklahoma City took it to a weary Denver squad in Game 7 on Sunday, connecting on 47-of-96 field goal attempts in a 125-93 rout. That marked the Thunder's second straight 'over' result but I expect that streak to be short-lived. Minnesota enters this series with a rest advantage having not played since May 14th. The Timberwolves have held 10 straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. They've also done an excellent job of slowing the pace, limiting nine of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a similar story for OKC. The Thunder have held six straight and 12 of their last 13 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. They held the Nuggets to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of the final six games of their conference semi-final series. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Carolina at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

The Panthers have had an incredibly high-scoring postseason to date with the 'over' going 9-3 in their first 12 games. I expect a shift as they enter the Eastern Conference Final against the Hurricanes. Carolina checks in allowing just 2.4 goals per game on home ice this season and has the considerable rest advantage having not played since May 15th's series-clinching win over the Capitals. The Canes allowed a grand total of just seven goals in that 4-1 series victory. Of note, the Panthers did ratchet up the defensive intensity as the series went on against Toronto, allowing only four goals over the final four games. Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky appears to be back in top form as this series begins. Expect goals to come at a premium in what promises to be a tightly-contested series-opener. Take the under (8*).

A.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Angels and Athletics at 10:05 pm et on Monday.

Conditions are ripe for a high-scoring affair between these A.L. West rivals on Monday. The temperature is forecast to settle in the low-80's with a breeze blowing out to right-center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. With the Angels bats coming off a heater at Dodger Stadium over the weekend and the A's in line for a bounce-back performance at the dish, we'll back the 'over' on Monday night.

The Angels pulled off an improbable three-game series sweep of the Dodgers, scoring a whopping 23 runs in the process. That helped mask their mound deficiencies as they did give up 13 runs over the final two games of the series. Of note, this matchup features two of baseball's worst bullpens with the Angels and A's ranking 23rd and 28th, respectively, in terms of relief xFIP.

Over the last seven days, the Halos rank a healthy seventh in the majors in weighted on base average. Interestingly, no Angels hitter has faced A's starter J.T. Ginn. They figure to like what they see, however, as Ginn has labored to the tune of a 6.23 FIP and 1.54 WHIP in three starts this season after logging a 3.96 FIP and 1.32 WHIP in eight appearances last year.

Jose Soriano will take the ball for Los Angeles. Current A's hitters have gone 8-for-27 (.296) with a 1.070 OPS against the right-hander, setting this up as a nice rebound spot following a tough series in San Francisco. The Angels are in a tough spot if Soriano can't work deep into this ball game as they emptied the tank in terms of their bullpen over the weekend, compounded by the fact that key reliever Hector Neris is day-to-day with an injury (and Jose Fermin is already sidelined). Take the over (10*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

The knee-jerk reaction might be to call for a bounce-back offensive performance from the Panthers after they were shut out in Game 6 of this series on Friday. However, it's worth noting that Florida has been shut out in consecutive games on two different occasions this season and was held to a single goal when coming off a shutout in another spot. In other words, a big offensive bounce-back is by no means guaranteed.

On the flip side, the pressure on Toronto in this game is immense. The Maple Leafs are back home but the jury is out on whether that's a positive or a negative considering they were blasted 6-1 in a critical Game 5 situation on home ice earlier this week.

Scoring chances were few-and-far-between in Game 6 with the two teams combining for just 39 shots on goal with many of those being low-danger opportunities. I don't see things opening up in Game 7 on Sunday.

Special teams play a factor as well. Note that the Panthers power play has struggled since opening the series going 2-for-5 across Games 1 and 2. Since then, the Cats PP has converted on only two of 27 opportunities. Meanwhile, the Leafs are a woeful 2-for-20 with the man advantage in this series. Expect goals to come at a premium on Sunday. Take the under (10*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday.

We've seen consecutive low-scoring affairs in this series and four of the first five games have stayed 'under' the total. We'll take the contrarian route ahead of Saturday's Game 6 and call for a much higher-scoring contest as the Stars try again to close out the Jets.

While the Stars were shut out in Game 5, we're likely to see a much different story unfold as the scene shifts back to Dallas on Saturday. Note that the Stars have averaged 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season while the Jets allow 2.9 goals per contest on the road.

I do think Winnipeg can help this total along, noting that it hasn't suffered much of a drop-off at all in offensive production on the road this season, averaging 3.2 goals per game (compared to its 3.3 goals per game season scoring average). We saw plenty of fight from the Jets facing elimination in Game 5 as they skated to a 4-0 win on home ice. Scoring hasn't necessarily been their problem when things have gone bad in these playoffs - they've been held to fewer than two goals only twice and have scored four or more goals in five of 12 games to date (including in both previous games when facing elimination). Keeping the puck out of their own net, particularly on the road, has been a glaring issue as they've given up 7, 5, 5, 5 and 3 goals in their five playoff road games to date.

Since being held to one goal in their playoff opener on home ice, the Stars have produced 4, 6, 4, 5 and 3 goals in their last four home contests. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Baltimore at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.

This is a high posted total but it's for good reason. The forecast calls for warm temperatures in the high-80's along with a breeze blowing out to right field at Camden Yards on Saturday.

While neither team has been tearing the cover off the baseball lately, the pitching matchup presents the potential for a slugfest. Jake Irvin will take the ball for Washington. In his third big league season, we know what to expect from the right-hander. Irvin owns a 5.19 FIP and 1.19 WHIP through nine starts this season, pretty much in line with his career 4.82 FIP and 1.27 WHIP. He'll be starting on short rest (four days) on Saturday. The last time he did that he was tagged for six earned runs over six innings against the Phillies on April 30th.

Kyle Gibson gets another turn in the rotation for the Orioles. You have to wonder whether he has anything left in the tank at this point of his career. So far this season, Gibson has posted a ridiculous 10.90 FIP and 2.49 WHIP in 11 2/3 innings of work, allowing a whopping seven home runs already. The Nationals are used to seeing Gibson in better form and with that being said, their current hitters are still a healthy 23-for-62 (.371) with a .999 OPS against him.

Neither bullpen has been air-tight this season with both ranking in the bottom-third of the majors in terms of xFIP. We'll call for plenty of runs on the board on Saturday. Take the over (8*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 8 pm et on Friday.

We've seen consecutive high-scoring 'over' results in this series including the Celtics 127-102 home win to avoid elimination in Game 5 two nights ago. I expect a much different story to unfold in Game 6 on Friday, however, as the scene shifts back to Manhattan.

The Celtics certainly rose to the occasion on Wednesday, connecting on a blistering 44-of-84 field goal attempts in an eventual blowout victory. The pace certainly wasn't there for such a high-scoring result as the Knicks shot just 29-of-81 from the field. While New York figures to enforce the tempo back at home on Friday, it's worth noting that the Knicks have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 37 or less in four of the first five games in this series.

On the flip side, Game 5 ended a streak of nine straight games in which New York had held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. I'm willing to bet on the C's red hot shooting performance in game 5 on being an outlier that was supported by a predictable letdown from the Knicks with a 3-1 series lead.

Boston can't afford to let its guard down defensively the way it did in the most recent game played here at Madison Square Garden if it wants to extend this series back to Beantown for Game 7. Note that outside of that ugly defensive effort, the C's have been terrific at that end of the floor, limiting 12 of their last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Denver at 8:30 pm ET on Thursday.

This series has consistently trended toward low-scoring affairs, with each of the last three meetings staying under the posted total. That pattern is backed by strong recent defensive showings from both sides. Denver attempted a whopping 97 field goals in Game 5 but still managed just 105 points on 40 makes — a testament to the Thunder’s disciplined defensive approach. In fact, Oklahoma City has now held 10 of its last 11 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, limiting offensive efficiency even when shot volume is high.

Denver, now facing elimination, is likely to respond with increased defensive intensity of its own. The Nuggets have done well limiting opportunities, holding 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. That’s notable considering the Thunder offense has shown signs of slowing, making 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last seven outings.

With both teams digging in defensively and recent history on our side, this projects as another methodical, grind-it-out playoff battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Thunder 104, Nuggets 100.

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Golden State and Minnesota at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Game 4 of this series saw a jump in scoring with the Timberwolves edging the Warriors 117-110, the pace and shot volume simply haven't supported consistently high-scoring outcomes. In fact, Minnesota has seen a steady decline in field goal attempts over the last three games, attempting just 79 shots in Game 4 — their lowest of the series. The difference on Monday was their efficient 49.4% shooting clip, which isn’t something to bank on repeating.

Golden State, meanwhile, continues to struggle offensively without Steph Curry. The Warriors have connected on 37 or fewer field goals in each of the first four games in this series and in 13 of their last 15 games overall. That’s a striking indicator of a team lacking scoring consistency and efficiency.

Now facing elimination, Golden State will likely double down on its defensive effort in an attempt to grind out a win. Expect a more methodical, hard-nosed approach, especially early, as they try to take the Timberwolves out of rhythm. Keep in mind, the last time Minnesota allowed an opponent to make more than 40 field goals in a game was April 10th — a testament to their sustained defensive excellence.

With both teams struggling to generate high shot volume and one (Golden State) dealing with serious scoring limitations, this sets up as a lower-scoring, high-stakes defensive battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Timberwolves 101, Warriors 92.

A.L. East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Toronto at 7:05 pm ET on Tuesday.

Despite Toronto’s recent offensive surge — ranking third in the majors in wOBA over the past week — this sets up as a potential low-scoring affair as the Blue Jays return home following a west coast swing. Transitions like that often lead to a short-term dip in offensive production, particularly with an indoor game looming. With rain in the forecast, the roof at Rogers Centre is likely to be closed, limiting the ball’s carry and favoring pitchers.

Shane Baz gets the nod for Tampa Bay and is in need of a bounce-back after two poor starts. Fortunately for him, he’s had success against this Blue Jays lineup in limited exposure, allowing just seven hits (only one for extra bases) in 37 at-bats, good for a .189 batting average and .447 OPS against. The Rays bullpen should provide solid support as well, ranking seventh in xFIP this season.

On the other side, Toronto sends Jose Berríos to the mound. While he issued five walks in his last outing, he still completed six innings efficiently and has been consistently solid, giving up only four earned runs across his last 18 innings pitched. The Blue Jays bullpen continues to be one of the league’s most effective units, sitting third in xFIP.

With Tampa Bay’s offense struggling (ranking 26th in wOBA over the past week) and both bullpens in strong form, this sets up as a game where runs should be hard to come by.

Take the under. Projected score: Blue Jays 4, Rays 2.

My selection is on the under between Oklahoma City and Denver at 10 pm ET on Friday.

While the first two games of this series both eclipsed the total and both teams are in the midst of extended 'over' streaks—five straight for Denver and three for Oklahoma City—I believe the setup is ripe for a lower-scoring Game 3. With the series now shifting to Denver, the intensity figures to ramp up, and both teams have demonstrated strong underlying defensive metrics that should begin to surface.

Despite the recent scoring surges, the Thunder have now held 10 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals—an incredible level of consistency on the defensive end. Denver hasn't been far behind in that department, limiting eight of its last nine and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals.

Game 2 turned into a one-sided affair, which helped inflate the scoring. But with Friday’s contest expected to be more competitive, look for fewer transition opportunities and a heavier reliance on half-court sets, where both defenses thrive. That should keep the pace in check and suppress overall shot quality.

Take the under. Projected score: Thunder 114, Nuggets 109.

My selection is on the over between Carolina and Washington at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

Game 1 was a tight, defensive battle that ended 2-1 in overtime in favor of the Hurricanes. However, I expect a much different pace in Game 2, particularly with the Capitals at home in a critical spot. Washington has been a significantly more aggressive offensive team on home ice, where they've averaged 3.6 goals per game and have seen their games total an average of 6.4 goals.

Carolina has not been as stingy defensively on the road, surrendering an average of 3.1 goals per contest away from home. Given their road splits (18-21-5), they're more vulnerable in hostile environments, and the Caps should be able to open things up offensively.

It’s also worth noting that while both teams have seen some lower-scoring results of late, Washington hasn’t gone under the total in more than two straight games since January — suggesting scoring is likely to rebound here. Add in the desperation factor for the Caps and a potentially looser style from both sides, and we have a solid recipe for goals.

Take the over. Projected score: Capitals 4, Hurricanes 3.

Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday.

After back-to-back high-scoring affairs — with the last two games in this series producing 8 and 11 total goals — we're likely to see a hard reset in Game 7. These teams know each other well, and the stakes couldn’t be higher with a trip to the next round on the line. That naturally sets the stage for a more structured, risk-averse game.

Dallas returns home looking to bounce back defensively after surrendering seven goals in Thursday’s rout in Colorado. That was easily one of its worst defensive showings of the season, but it came in a setting that’s produced wild swings throughout the series. Back on home ice, the Stars should settle down and return to form. Keep in mind, Dallas has yielded just 2.5 goals per game at home this season.

Meanwhile, despite recent results, Colorado simply hasn’t been involved in many extended high-scoring stretches this season. In fact, it hasn't seen three consecutive 'over' results since a five-game run that ended in early November. Similarly, Dallas hasn’t hit three straight 'overs' since a seven-game outlier that ended in early March.

With the margin for error razor-thin in this Game 7 setting, expect a slower pace, less space, and an emphasis on defensive responsibility from both sides. That, coupled with top goaltenders likely getting the nod on both ends, makes the 'under' the right play.

Take the under. Projected score: Stars 3, Avalanche 2.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

After a long string of 'under' results in this series, the last two games have both cleared the number. That has led to considerable market reaction heading into Saturday’s Game 7 - perhaps not as you might think - with the lowest total of the series posted, and rightfully so in my opinion. Despite the recent 'over' results, pace and shot volume remain well within the bounds of an 'under'-friendly script.

The Clippers have attempted 88 or fewer field goals in every game this series, which speaks to the grind-it-out nature of this matchup. What has changed recently is efficiency — Los Angeles has shot 50% or better from the field in back-to-back games, which is not something we should expect to continue on the road in a high-pressure Game 7. Denver, for its part, has quietly controlled tempo at home all season and is capable of imposing its defensive will in this spot.

On the other side, the Clippers have held Denver to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games. Even when the Nuggets got to 90+ FGA in Game 1, they only made 41 shots. Yes, Denver has shot extremely well the last two contests, but that efficiency seems unsustainable against a Clippers defense that hasn’t allowed three straight opponents to knock down 44+ field goals all year. Each time it happened twice in a row, the next game failed to eclipse the total.

Given the series-long trend, the suppressed pace, and the expected tightening of defensive screws in a Game 7 environment, this one sets up nicely for a return to a low-scoring result. Expect both teams to show resistance early and take fewer risks offensively, leading to fewer transition opportunities and more half-court possessions.

Take the under. Projected score: Nuggets 101, Clippers 98.

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday.

After consecutive high-scoring games, we're buying low on the total and expecting a regression in Game 6 as the series returns to a more defensive tone. Houston extended the series with a blowout win in Game 5, shooting a red-hot 55% from the floor (43-of-78). That marked the first time in the series the Rockets surpassed 40 made field goals — a number they had failed to reach in each of the first four games.

It's worth noting that Houston has been held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all five games. That’s a testament to Golden State’s ability to limit possessions and keep the Rockets in check outside of last game’s outlier performance. The Warriors, meanwhile, were forced into an inflated pace in Game 5, jacking up 103 shots — an unsustainable figure and one driven by a lopsided deficit and desperation.

Before that, Golden State had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in four straight games, and I expect a return to that type of defensive execution on Friday. This is another elimination game - one that figures to be more competitive than we saw two nights ago - and that often brings with it more deliberate play-calling and an increased emphasis on defense and half-court sets.

With both teams locking in on the defensive end and the pace slowing considerably, this projects as a tight, lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Warriors 101, Rockets 96

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the under between Florida and Tampa Bay at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday.

After back-to-back 'over' results in this series, I'm expecting a much tighter, more defensive contest in Game 5 as Tampa Bay faces elimination on home ice. The Lightning have thrived defensively at Amalie Arena all season, allowing only 2.3 goals per game. That should be a key factor as they look to extend their season and avoid trading goals in a high-variance style that favors Florida.

While Tampa Bay's offense has been potent at home (3.8 goals per game), the Panthers have shown they can smother even the best attacks, limiting the Bolts to two goals or fewer in three of the first four games. Florida’s defensive commitment should only intensify as they attempt to close out the series on the road.

With both teams likely to tighten up and minimize mistakes in a pivotal elimination scenario, I anticipate a slower-paced, hard-checking game with limited quality scoring chances. That should be enough to keep this one comfortably under the total.

Take the under. Projected score: Panthers 3, Lightning 2.

My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Now that Edmonton has evened the series and the scene shifts back to Los Angeles, this sets up well for a much tighter, lower-scoring affair than what we've seen so far. Despite the 'over' cashing in all four games to this point, a pivotal Game 5 typically brings more cautious, disciplined hockey — especially between two teams that know each other this well.

The Kings, who have allowed just 2.1 goals per game at home this season, should be able to regroup defensively after struggling at times in Edmonton. Returning home allows them to dictate the matchups and control the tempo better — something they weren’t able to do on the road.

On the Oilers side, while their offense has continued to produce, the change in goal from Stuart Skinner to Calvin Pickard has helped stabilize things somewhat. Skinner looked shaky in Games 1 and 2, but Pickard's steadying presence has at least provided Edmonton with a chance to settle down defensively. That confidence boost in net should be critical in a tense Game 5.

Also worth noting: the Oilers' offense, while explosive at times, has been more contained on the road, averaging just 3.1 goals per game, with their road contests seeing an average of only 6.1 total goals — notably lower than the number we're being asked to clear here.

Expect a more playoff-style, grinding effort from both sides with goals hard to come by.

Take the under. Projected score: Oilers 3, Kings 2.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While we did cash with the 'over' in Game 4 on Sunday, I'm expecting a return to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out style in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. Sunday’s game saw a somewhat inflated scoreline thanks to a better shooting performance from Boston and a looser game script with the Celtics in control for much of the night, not to mention plenty of late scoring thanks the Magic's desperation fouling. Now, with the series 3-1 in favor of Boston and the potential of Orlando's elimination, I expect both teams to tighten things up defensively.

This has been a slow-paced series overall, with Orlando in particular dragging games into half-court battles. The Magic have held Boston to 39 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four games — an incredible feat considering the Celtics’ potent offense. That’s largely due to Orlando’s ability to limit possessions and force Boston into long, contested shots.

Boston’s defense also deserves credit. Outside of a couple of brief stretches, they’ve consistently bottled up the Magic's offense, and now back at home, I anticipate the Celtics emphasizing a defensive-first approach as they look to finish off the series. Note that even with the 'over' hitting in Game 4, the Celtics still held the Magic to just 34 made field goals (they've limited Orlando to 37 or fewer made field goals in all four games) — nothing explosive.

Orlando hasn’t topped 98 points in three of the four games in this series, only reaching 100 points in the other contest. Given the stakes, expect long possessions, fewer transition opportunities, and plenty of physical half-court play.

Take the under. Projected score: Celtics 102, Magic 91.

A.L. West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Athletics and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday.

We saw a low-scoring affair between these two A.L. West clubs last night with Oakland pulling out a 2-1 win. However, that low-scoring result sets the stage for some regression in Game 2 of the series, and I anticipate a much livelier affair on Tuesday.

The A's will turn to left-hander Jacob Lopez, who’s making his first start of the season and just the third of his MLB career. The former Ray has shown signs of vulnerability despite a decent FIP, posting a bloated 1.85 WHIP across just 4 1/3 innings with Oakland and allowing 8 of 22 batters to reach base. That lack of control and consistency is concerning against a Texas lineup overdue for offensive production after six consecutive ‘under’ results.

Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom goes for the Rangers but will be pitching on short rest and faces an Oakland offense that has quietly heated up — ranking 13th in wOBA over the last week. The A’s lineup is a respectable 11-for-39 with a .932 OPS against deGrom in their careers, and having just seen him six days ago adds to their familiarity. DeGrom’s 4.44 FIP this season suggests he hasn’t been in peak form, and with the Rangers bullpen potentially down multiple key arms due to recent workload, that puts even more pressure on the veteran righty.

Oakland is also likely without Mason Miller after back-to-back outings, weakening a middle-of-the-pack bullpen (18th in xFIP). If the Rangers finally wake up offensively and the A’s stay hot, both starters could be out early and the relievers tested — setting up for a higher-scoring contest.

Take the over. Projected score: Rangers 6, Athletics 4.

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Monday.

Following Colorado’s dominant 4-0 victory in Game 4, I’m expecting a more wide-open, higher-scoring contest when the Avalanche and Stars meet again for Game 5 on Monday night in Dallas.

The Stars were blanked on Saturday, but it’s important to recognize how rare that is — it was just the second time all season Dallas was held off the scoreboard. Playing back at home, where they’ve averaged 3.4 goals per game this season, we can project a strong bounce-back effort from the Stars' offense. They know they can’t afford to come out flat again with the series now tied 2-2 and the pressure squarely back on them.

Meanwhile, Colorado has shown no signs of slowing down offensively, even away from home. The Avs posted 48 shots on goal in Game 4 and have been consistently dangerous, averaging 3.3 goals per game on the road this season and tallying eight goals combined in Games 1 and 2 in Dallas. Colorado’s pace and pressure should continue to force the Stars into a faster tempo, creating plenty of scoring opportunities on both sides.

With Dallas needing a strong offensive showing and Colorado unlikely to let up with its aggressive attack, the conditions are ripe for a much higher-scoring game than what we saw in Game 4.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Avalanche 4, Stars 3.

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Orlando at 7 pm et on Sunday.

While Game 3 saw both teams bogged down in a sluggish, low-scoring affair — combining for just 188 points — I’m expecting a bounce-back in scoring when the Celtics and Magic meet again for Game 4 on Sunday night.

Friday’s 95-93 Orlando win saw Boston limited to a season-low 74 field goal attempts, but it's important to note that Boston has historically responded well offensively after extended shooting slumps. The Celtics have now been held to 37 or fewer made field goals in four straight games, matching their longest drought of the season. The last time that happened, they exploded for 139 points against Brooklyn in mid-November. While I’m not projecting quite that type of eruption here against Orlando’s stout defense, it sets up nicely for Boston to find its rhythm and lift the scoring environment.

Orlando still faces heavy pressure trailing 2-1 in the series. In a similar spot in Game 2, we saw the Magic perform better offensively while chasing from behind, knocking down a series-high 39 field goals. If the Celtics take control again on Sunday, that could force Orlando to play a little faster and take more chances offensively, helping the 'over' cause.

It won’t take an out-of-control shootout to surpass this relatively modest number. With Boston likely to come out with more purpose offensively and Orlando capable of contributing enough, we should see a higher-scoring contest than we did on Friday.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Celtics 107, Magic 102.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 3:30 pm et on Sunday.

After the 'under' cashed in the first two games of this series, Game 3 brought a temporary break from the trend as both teams started hot and combined for 220 points. I’m expecting a return to a lower-scoring outcome in Sunday's pivotal Game 4, with both squads likely emphasizing defense and control.

Despite the Game 3 'over', the overall pace of the series remains sluggish. Los Angeles has taken 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight contests and seven of its last nine overall. This is a team that has played deliberately slow basketball down the stretch of the regular season and into the playoffs, preferring to work for quality shots rather than rushing possessions.

Defensively, the Lakers have been extremely effective at keeping opposing offenses in check. They've held 10 of their last 11 opponents — and an impressive 42 of their last 48 — to 44 or fewer made field goals. That speaks volumes about their ability to prevent teams from finding rhythm and easy looks.

The Timberwolves, meanwhile, hoisted up 91 field goal attempts in Friday’s Game 3, but even that was a bit of an outlier. They’ve had fewer than 90 attempts in seven of their last nine games. Their defense continues to be the cornerstone of their success, as they've limited five consecutive opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals.

With both teams bringing a defensive mindset and neither looking to push the pace, we should see a grind-it-out style of game and a return to the 'under' cashing once again on Sunday afternoon.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Timberwolves 102, Lakers 98.

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Winnipeg and St. Louis at 1 pm et on Sunday.

While St. Louis erupted for seven goals in Thursday's win, don't expect a repeat performance on Sunday. Winnipeg has consistently been one of the NHL’s stingiest defensive teams, allowing just 2.8 goals per game on the road, and should respond with a sharper effort after an uncharacteristic defensive lapse. Look for goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to lead the way, as he’s often bounced back strong after a tough outing.

Special teams could also play a big role in keeping this game low-scoring. The Blues have been outstanding on the penalty kill for an extended stretch, allowing just seven power play goals since early March. Meanwhile, Winnipeg’s power play continues to struggle, scoring more than one power play goal in a game only once since early March, and going just 2-for-10 with the man advantage so far in this series.

Also of note, the Blues have held opponents to only 2.7 goals per game at Enterprise Center, while the Jets’ scoring output tends to dip slightly away from home. In a critical Game 4, expect a tight, low-event style of play with both teams focusing on minimizing mistakes.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Jets 3, Blues 1.

My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday.

While both teams boast plenty of offensive weapons, this series — and this matchup overall — continues to trend 'under.' We've now seen six straight meetings between the Rockets and Warriors stay below the total, including each of the first two games of this playoff series.

Golden State has made a concerted effort to control the tempo, limiting Houston to just 76 and 80 field goal attempts in Games 1 and 2. That’s critical, as the Rockets thrive in a faster-paced game and haven’t been able to get into their offensive rhythm.

On the other side, the Warriors themselves have been mired in an offensive slump for weeks. They've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three straight games and 12 of their last 17 overall. Furthermore, Golden State hasn’t even topped 86 field goal attempts in a single game since April 8th — a span of six contests where they've recorded a 2-4 o/u mark.

With both teams struggling to find offensive flow and the Warriors imposing a slower pace, another 'under' looks likely.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Warriors 101, Rockets 97.

National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

After an 8-2 Braves win opened the series last night, I’m anticipating a much tighter, lower-scoring contest on Saturday. Grant Holmes gets the ball for Atlanta and has quietly put together a strong run after a rough season debut, giving up just four earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings. His ability to pitch deep into games, combined with the fact that he faces a slumping Arizona lineup (25th in wOBA over the last seven days), puts the Braves in a good spot to limit damage.

Merrill Kelly counters for the Diamondbacks and enters in strong form himself, having allowed only four earned runs across his last three starts (17 2/3 innings). He’s enjoyed success against Atlanta in the past, holding current Braves hitters to a miserable .170 batting average and .564 OPS. Backing him up is a D-backs bullpen that ranks first in the majors in xFIP this season, providing another layer of protection for the 'under'.

With two pitchers in good form and at least one lineup struggling to string hits together, I expect runs to be at a premium on Saturday night.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Diamondbacks 4, Braves 3.

My selection is on the under between Texas and San Francisco at 10:15 pm et on Friday.

We're getting a relatively low total in this interleague clash, but it’s well justified given the current form of both offenses and the quality of starting pitching on tap. Neither Texas nor San Francisco has been producing much at the plate lately, with the two clubs ranking 21st and 20th, respectively, in wOBA over the last seven days.

Nathan Eovaldi draws the start for Texas, and he's been outstanding to open the year, quietly putting together one of the league's best early-season resumes with a 2.86 FIP and 0.75 WHIP over 30 2/3 innings. He’s been efficient as well, staying under 90 pitches in each of his last three starts, leaving him fresh heading into this one. Notably, none of his five starts this season have eclipsed seven total runs.

Justin Verlander will counter for the Giants. After a rough stretch to start the month, he appears to have found his footing again, giving up just one earned run over six strong innings against the Angels in his last start. If that’s a sign of things to come, San Francisco should be in good shape on the mound.

Both bullpens have also been dependable, with the Rangers and Giants relief staffs ranking inside the top 10 in xFIP league-wide. At a pitcher-friendly park like Oracle, all signs point to a low-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Rangers 3, Giants 2.

My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday.

The early series trend is undeniable — all six meetings between the Lakers and Timberwolves this season have stayed under the total, and there’s little reason to expect that to change as the series heads to Minnesota for Game 3. Despite totals continuing to slide lower, I still don't think the oddsmakers have fully accounted for the defensive intensity on display.

Minnesota's defense has been elite down the stretch, with the under cashing in seven of their last eight games. Even more impressively, they've held each of their last four opponents to 40 made field goals or fewer — a testament to their rim protection, switchability, and disciplined half-court execution.

The Lakers haven’t been shabby defensively either. They've limited four of their last five and eight of their last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The pace of this series has been slow, physical, and playoff-style through and through — and that suits both teams' recent defensive identities.

Expect another grind-it-out, half-court-heavy affair with limited transition buckets and long, contested possessions on both ends.

Take the under. Projected score: Timberwolves 102, Lakers 97.

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the over between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 9:30 pm ET on Thursday.

The total has dipped following back-to-back low-scoring games to open the series, creating value as we shift venues to Memphis for Game 3. Oklahoma City is playing with extreme offensive confidence right now, having made 45 or more field goals in five of its last six games. The Thunder's offensive pace remains relentless, taking 98 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests, including a staggering 104 attempts in their Game 2 win. Even with a strong defense, the Thunder allow their opponents plenty of opportunities—four straight opponents have reached 91 or more field goal attempts. That trend should continue here, especially with the Grizzlies returning home and likely to push tempo in a must-win spot.

While Memphis hasn’t cashed in offensively yet this series, they've generated volume—getting off 93 and 91 field goal attempts in the first two games. They simply haven’t converted at the level they were prior to the series when they made 40+ field goals in six straight games. That kind of regression is unlikely to last, especially back home where role players typically perform better. Overall, the Grizzlies have hoisted 90 or more field goal attempts in 27 of their last 32 games, a sign they’re doing enough offensively to contribute to a higher-scoring game when their shots begin to fall. With both teams continuing to play at a high tempo, expect this one to cruise over the posted number.

Take the over. Projected score: Thunder 123, Grizzlies 113.

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Tampa Bay and Arizona at 9:40 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams combined for 13 runs in a wild extra-inning game last night, but I'm expecting a sharp reversal on Thursday, thanks largely to a premium starting pitching matchup and two reliable bullpens.

Tampa Bay hands the ball to Drew Rasmussen, who has been nothing short of dominant this season. He enters with a sparkling 1.62 FIP and 0.82 WHIP, continuing a trend of elite run prevention that has spanned over six MLB seasons. The D'Backs haven’t had much success against him, going just 4-for-20 with all hits belonging to Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Injuries have hampered Rasmussen over the course of his career, but he's clearly at full health now and pitching exceptionally well.

Corbin Burnes gets the call for Arizona, and while the box score from his last outing is deceptive, his individual performance was strong. He allowed just two earned runs in six innings in a game that spiraled into chaos after his exit. Burnes has quietly righted the ship following a rough start to the season, shaving over a run off his FIP in his last two starts. He’s owned the current Rays lineup, limiting them to a collective .204 average and .529 OPS across 49 at-bats.

Bullpen-wise, Arizona still boasts the league’s best xFIP and is unlikely to endure back-to-back blowups. Tampa Bay’s relief corps has quietly been excellent as well, ranking seventh in xFIP. Combine that with the fact that the Rays have slumped offensively—ranking just 21st in wOBA over the last week—and we have a nice setup for a low-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Diamondbacks 3, Rays 2.

American League Total of the Month. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Toronto and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday.

Toronto will look to snap its three-game slide behind veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt, who has been outstanding to start the season, posting a 1.02 FIP and 1.07 WHIP through 23 1/3 innings. He's delivered strong performances in a pair of tough road assignments already, holding the Red Sox and Mets to just one earned run combined. After tossing only 90 pitches in a short-but-efficient outing against the Braves last time out, Bassitt returns on full rest and should be in position to work deeper into this game.

Houston counters with Ronel Blanco, who hasn’t quite found his stride yet this season but has shown signs of turning the corner at home, where he's pitched better across a couple of outings. Blanco has had prior success against this Jays lineup, limiting current Toronto hitters to a paltry .125 average (5-for-40) with a .464 OPS.

Even if either starter falters, both bullpens are well-positioned to pick up the slack. The Astros and Blue Jays rank 5th and 7th in bullpen xFIP this season, and both relief staffs should be fully rested following Monday's one-sided affair that didn’t tax either unit.

Expect a cleaner, lower-scoring affair in Game 2 as the pitching takes over.

Take the under. Projected score: Astros 4, Blue Jays 2.

My selection is on the 'under' between Montreal and Washington at 7 pm et on Monday.

With the stakes raised as the playoffs get underway, I expect a more disciplined and defensively-focused effort from both sides in Game 1. Washington had little to play for in its regular season finale and it showed in a 5-2 loss in Pittsburgh, but the Caps chose to rest their starting netminder and gave AHL call-up Clay Stevenson the nod. Expect a far more locked-in performance in front of the home crowd on Monday as the series opens.

The Capitals have quietly been one of the league’s stingier home teams, allowing just 2.9 goals per game at Capital One Arena this season. In their last meeting with Montreal, the two teams combined for only five goals in a 3-2 Canadiens win — a tempo that we’re likely to see replicated here.

Montreal, meanwhile, limps into the postseason offensively, having scored only 30 goals over its final 11 regular season games. The Habs have been grinding out results with a more conservative style down the stretch and average only 2.9 goals per game on the road this season. If they’re going to make this a competitive series, they’ll have to slow things down and frustrate a more seasoned Caps team that has the playoff edge in experience.

With both teams likely to tighten up in this opening-round clash, I believe this total sits a bit too high.

Take the under. Projected score: Capitals 3, Canadiens 2.

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Toronto at 7 pm et on Sunday.

Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I expect a much tighter, more disciplined contest as these provincial rivals open their first-round playoff series. The postseason tends to bring out a more structured, physical style of hockey, and that should be the case here with both teams likely to ramp things up defensively.

Ottawa lit up the scoreboard with a seven-goal performance in its regular season finale against Carolina, but don't expect that kind of offensive output on the road, especially against a motivated Toronto squad. The Senators have averaged just 2.5 goals per game away from home this season and now face a Maple Leafs team that has allowed only 2.5 goals per contest at home—a trend that figures to continue with playoff stakes on the line.

Toronto has scored exactly four goals in three straight games but hasn't done so in four consecutive contests all season. That makes regression likely against a Senators team that, despite their recent ‘over’ run, has actually allowed a modest 3.0 goals per game on the road this season.

With the stakes elevated, defenses focused, and both teams likely to lean on a more playoff-friendly style of hockey, we’ll anticipate a lower-scoring affair in Game 1.

Take the under. Projected score: Maple Leafs 3, Senators 2.

Interleague Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Cincinnati and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Friday.

This game sets up perfectly for a high-scoring affair, with ideal hitting conditions on tap in Baltimore. Temperatures will be in the 70s at first pitch with a steady breeze blowing out to left-center, helping carry any well-struck balls and boosting run-scoring potential in what’s already a hitter-friendly park.

On the mound, neither starting pitcher inspires much confidence. Cincinnati sends Andrew Abbott to the hill for just his second start of the season. While the lefty looked serviceable in his debut, his track record suggests he can be erratic, especially against quality lineups like Baltimore's. The Orioles have hit .316 with an .876 OPS in a small sample against Abbott, and their offense is heating up with 15 runs scored across their last two games.

Cade Povich counters for the O’s, and the left-hander is still searching for consistency. Tagged for 24 hits in just 15 innings this season, he’s been far too hittable. That’s not a great recipe against a Reds team that may have just dropped two in Seattle, but still ranks in the top half of the league in weighted on-base average over the last week.

With both teams swinging the bats reasonably well and pitching vulnerabilities on both sides, the conditions are ripe for fireworks in Friday’s series opener.

Take the over. Projected score: Orioles 7, Reds 6.

My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday.

After being completely shut down offensively in San Diego over the weekend, I expect the Rockies to show some signs of life at the plate as they open a new series in Los Angeles on Monday night. A change of scenery could do wonders for a Colorado lineup that was blanked in three straight games, especially facing a Dodgers starter in Dustin May who has been living on the edge despite a 0.82 ERA through two starts. May has struggled with command, posting a 7:6 K:BB ratio and generating very little swing-and-miss stuff in his most recent outing (just 3 whiffs on 86 pitches).

Colorado will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound, and his early season good luck ran out in a big way last time out, when he surrendered eight earned runs over just 4 1/3 innings in a lopsided loss to the Brewers. Current Dodgers hitters own a .273 average and .877 OPS against Senzatela across 143 combined at-bats, and Los Angeles should have no trouble generating run-scoring opportunities here.

With seasonably mild conditions and a breeze blowing out to right-center at Dodger Stadium, the ball could carry better than usual. This total is reasonable, and both offenses should do enough to get us over the number.

Take the over. Projected score: Dodgers 7, Rockies 5.