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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-05-21||Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 160||86-70||Win||100||36 h 21 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Baylor and Gonzaga at 9:20 pm et on Monday.
We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling overtime victory over UCLA on Saturday while missing by a bucket with the 'under' in Baylor rout of Houston. Here, I love the way the 'under' sets up with what I feel is an inflated total for the final. Credit UCLA for hanging around in a game where most felt it would be overmatched on Saturday. It wasn't that Gonzaga played that poorly defensively, the Bruins quite simply knocked down their shots, hitting 58% from the field, in fact. There's no reason to get down on the Zags defense heading into Monday's game, however, noting that while known for its prolific offense, this is a Bulldogs squad that entered the tournament ranked 13th nationally in opponents floor percentage and 31st in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Unlike UCLA, Baylor does possess the length and athleticism to contend with the Zags offense in my opinion. The Bears have an active defense that entered the tourney ranked seventh in the country in steals per possession and 71st in block percentage. That's not to mention a very respectable 44th in opponents floor percentage. If anything, we've seen Baylor get stronger defensively as this tournament as gone on. The Bears not surprisingly got sped up a bit against Arkansas in the Elite Eight but outside of that we've seen them prefer to play a halfcourt game. This one is being priced as a potential track meet and while both teams have the pro-level talent to bring that to fruition, I believe there's a better chance we see the defenses step up and keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*).
|04-03-21||UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5||90-93||Win||100||13 h 9 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Gonzaga at 8:35 pm et on Saturday.
Both of these teams delivered 'under' results in the Elite Eight, albeit in very different ways with UCLA involved in an extremely low-scoring victory over defensive-minded Michigan and Gonzaga putting up 85 points in a rout of USC. Here, I don't believe UCLA will be able to do anything to throw the Bulldogs off their game offensively, noting that the Bruins entered the tournament ranked a miserable 299th in the nation in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. They also checked in ranked 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage and 156th in opponents floor percentage. I don't need to tell you that's just not going to cut it against a Gonzaga squad that ranks tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage. The Bruins have been hot and cold offensively in this tournament but might have a sliver of hope here with the Zags holding USC to 38.7% shooting last time out. That may seem contradictory, but it's worth noting that the Bulldogs haven't held consecutive opponents under 40% shooting since January 16th and 23rd against St. Mary's-CA and Pacific. The Bruins should at least get some good looks at the basket in this one, noting that Gonzaga ranks well north of 200th in terms of block percentage, and ranks worse than UCLA's last opponent, Michigan, in terms of opponents floor percentage, opponents effective field goal percentage and opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. This will by no means be a walk in the park for the Bruins offensively, but I think they can do enough to help get this one 'over' the reasonable total. Take the over (10*).
|04-03-21||Houston v. Baylor UNDER 135||Top||59-78||Loss||-110||19 h 50 m||Show|
NCAA Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Baylor at 5:15 pm et on Saturday.
This has the makings of a low-scoring battle between the Cougars and Bears on Saturday evening. Houston entered the tournament ranked number one in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage and it hasn't disappointed, holding its four opponents to 56, 60, 46 and 61 points. While this will be Houston's toughest test in the tournament to date, I believe it will be up for the challenge. Baylor put up 81 points in its Elite Eight win over Arkansas but that was the first time it broke the 80-point mark since back on March 7th against Texas Tech. I suspect the Bears might have trouble running their offense against a Houston defense that entered the tournament ranked ninth in the nation in block percentage and 16th in steals per possession. I also think Houston's slow pace, ranking around 300th in the country in possessions per game could cause the Bears some problems here. Where I don't expect Baylor to have any trouble is slowing a Houston offense that has topped out at 67 points since opening the tournament with a rout of an overmatched Cleveland State squad. Keep in mind, the Cougars Elite Eight victory over Oregon State got to just 128 points but featured 12 points in the game's final minute as the Beavers did everything they could to extend proceedings. I'm not convinced this game will go right down to the wire, and that should help our cause with the 'under'. Take the under (10*).
|03-30-21||UCLA v. Michigan UNDER 136||Top||51-49||Win||100||13 h 29 m||Show|
Elite Eight Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UCLA and Michigan at 9:55 pm et on Tuesday.
We won with the 'under' in Michigan's Sweet 16 victory over Florida State on Sunday in a game that only came close to approaching the total thanks to its lopsided nature. Here, I'm expecting a more tightly-contested affair and will go back to the well with the 'under' once again. UCLA certainly didn't enter this tournament looking like an elite defensive team but we have seen the Bruins round into form at that end of the floor over the last couple of games, holding Abilene Christian and Alabama to a combined 37.3% shooting. Michigan has shot the lights out in this tournament so far but I would anticipate some regression in that department on Tuesday. It's worth noting that the Wolverines entered this tournament ranked a less than impressive 175th in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. I like the fact that both of these teams should be able to run their offenses on Tuesday night, with neither defense overly disruptive. UCLA entered the tourney ranked 299th in the nation in steals per possession while Michigan checked in an ugly 331st in that department. Both teams prefer to work deep into the shot clock on offense, with UCLA entering the tournament ranked 288th nationally in possessions per game and Michigan checking in 259th. The Bruins were involved in a more up-tempo game against Alabama on Sunday, although that one still only managed to get to 130 points in regulation time. Michigan has scored 82, 86 and 76 points through three games in this tournament. Keep in mind, the Wolverines had scored fewer than 70 points in four of their last five games heading in. Look for a return to 'normal' here. Take the under (10*).
|03-29-21||Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 148.5||72-81||Loss||-113||14 h 45 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Arkansas and Baylor at 9:55 pm et on Monday.
The potential is obviously there for this to turn into a track meet on Monday night but that's ultimately been factored into the total. I like what both teams bring to the table defensively and with a spot in the Final Four hanging in the balance, look for points to come at a premium in this one (relatively speaking, of course). Note that Baylor has allowed just north of 57 points per game when playing for just the second time in eight days over the last two seasons. Saturday's win over Villanova wasn't overly taxing on the Bears as far as I'm concerned and I expect them to be extremely active at the defensive end of the floor in this one, noting that they entered the tournament ranked an impressive seventh in the nation in steals per possession and top-75 in block percentage. For Arkansas' part, it has been a top-25 team in terms of opponents floor percentage this season and top-65 in opponents effective field goal percentage. After a loosely-played affair that featured 138 combined field goal attempts against Oral Roberts, look for this game to take on a more defensive tone. Take the under (10*).
|03-28-21||Oregon v. USC UNDER 138||68-82||Loss||-109||14 h 42 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and USC at 9:45 pm et on Sunday.
When these teams met during the Pac-12 regular season they combined to score only 130 points and I anticipate more of the same here with a lot more to play for in the Sweet 16. While the Ducks put up a whopping 95 points in an extremely high-scoring affair against Iowa last time out, note that Oregon checks in 262nd in the nation in possessions per game and won't have much interest in a track meet here. Likewise, USC ranks north of 200th in the country in possessions per game and should be comfortable playing this one in the 50's or 60's. I like the disruptive nature of both defenses, with USC in particular being stingy around the basket, ranking an impressive 11th in the country in block percentage. The Trojans will let Oregon run its offense here, likely deep into the shot clock on most possessions, noting that USC ranks 316th in steals per possession. Conversely, while Oregon sits just inside the top-90 in block percentage, it ranks 45th in steals per possession. But again, what it does with those extra possessions should support our cause with the 'under' as the Ducks don't generally look to push the pace. Note that USC allows just 64.5 points per game playing away from home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons while Oregon gives up 64.2 ppg after an ATS win over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*).
|03-28-21||Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 143.5||58-76||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Michigan at 5 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the 'under' in Florida State's blowout win over Colorado in the Round of 32 and I won't hesitate to go back the well with the same play here as the Seminoles challenge top-seeded Michigan on Sunday afternoon. This game will pit two elite defensive teams with Michigan ranking sixth in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Florida State is a top-20 team in opponents effective field goal percentage and a very respectable 48th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. Both teams also rank inside the top-60 in opponents floor percentage. We'll see a contrast in styles here as Michigan will look to use most of the shot clock as it checks in 245th in the country in possessions per game while Florida State will undoubtedly try to speed things up, ranking 132nd in that category. I do believe both teams will be able to run their offenses without a great deal of disruption. Note in particular that Michigan ranks a woeful 337th in the nation in steals per possession this season. That's beneficial to Florida State given it doesn't always take great care of the basketball, ranking 251st in the nation in turnovers per possession. While I have a lot of respect for both of these offenses, I simply feel this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*).
|03-28-21||Mississippi State v. Memphis UNDER 135.5||64-77||Loss||-103||4 h 9 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Memphis at 12 noon et on Sunday.
Both of these teams overwhelmed their opponents in yesterday's NIT matchups with Memphis scoring 90 points and Mississippi State putting up 84 points in blowout victories. Here, I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair. While the Bulldogs shot 56% from the field including 50% from beyond the arc yesterday, they can go cold just as quickly as they get hot, noting they've been held to fewer than 60 points on eight different occasions this season. Here, they'll be up against an elite Memphis defense that has only allowed one opponent to break 70 points since the beginning of March - that being Elite Eight-bound Houston. The Tigers also shot a blistering 56% from the field yesterday including 52% from beyond the arc but will have to deal with a Mississippi State defense that ranks 34th in the nation in block percentage. Also note that the Bulldogs do an excellent job cleaning up on the glass, ranking 12th in the country in total rebounding percentage. Take the under (10*).
|03-27-21||Oral Roberts v. Arkansas OVER 159||Top||70-72||Loss||-108||34 h 21 m||Show|
CBB Sweet 16 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Oral Roberts and Arkansas at 7:25 pm et on Saturday.
This will be the second meeting between these two schools this season with Arkansas cruising to a 87-76 victory back on December 20th. Here on Saturday, I believe the Razorbacks scoring 100 or more points is well within the realm of possibility - a bold prediction, I know, but the situation sets up well for a track meet between these two up-tempo teams. Oral Roberts entered this tournament ranked a miserable 292nd in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 187th in opponents effective field goal percentage. The Golden Eagles have rode their offense to consecutive upset victories over Ohio State and Florida to reach the Sweet 16 but now face a whole other sort of challenge, as they're well aware of after running into the Hogs during the regular season. I don't expect ORU to shy away from its regular gameplan here, as it entered the tourney ranked 42nd in the nation in possessions per game. That of course plays right into the hands of an Arkansas team that likes to play at a break-neck pace, entering the tournament ranked 12th in possessions per game. There's little reason to believe the Golden Eagles can offer much defensive resistance here as they rank north of 200th in the country in steals per possession and do an awful job rebounding, checking in north of 300th in total rebounding percentage. The hope for ORU here is that Arkansas gets a little carried away running the floor and lacks a bit of focus at the defensive end of the floor. After getting bogged down in a narrow win over defensive-minded Texas Tech, the Hogs will certainly welcome the opportunity to get loose in this one but it may come at the expense of their own defense. Either way, much like the regular season matchup did, I'm confident this one finds its way 'over' the lofty but not unreasonable posted total, noting that Arkansas averages a whopping 93.8 points per game when the total is set between 150 and 159.5 this season, with those contests totaling an average of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*).
|03-25-21||Boise State v. Memphis UNDER 143||56-59||Win||100||9 h 35 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and Memphis at 9 pm et on Thursday.
Boise State has given up 80+ points in back-to-back games which I don't think speaks to the identity or quality of this Broncos team. Meanwhile, Memphis has been playing like an elite defensive team for weeks and does match up well with the Boise offense here. Note that the 'under' is 9-2 when Memphis checks in playing away from home off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 128.9 points. The Tigers have allowed just 62 points per game in lined contests as a favorite this season. Meanwhile, Boise State has allowed just 67 points per game after scoring 80 points or more in its previous game over the last three seasons. Here, the Broncos will run into a Memphis squad that ranks top-three in the nation in opponents floor percentage this season. The Tigers also rank eighth in the country in steals per possession and 15th in block percentage. Boise State is what I would consider a 'tough out', however, noting that the Broncos do rank a respectable 63rd in the nation in defensive efficiency and 60th in turnovers per possession on offense. I'm not expecting a third straight track meet for Boise here. Take the under (10*).
|03-25-21||NC State v. Colorado State UNDER 146||Top||61-65||Win||100||7 h 51 m||Show|
NIT Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Thursday.
Both of these teams put up 75 points in their NIT openers but I expect them to have a tough time approaching that number as they match up in this quarter-final game on Thursday night. Note that N.C. State ranks just 225th in the nation in possessions per game while Colorado State checks in 205th. I do think the Wolfpack will be able to run their offense in this one as the Rams rank 258th in steals per possession and 232nd in block percentage. However, Colorado does rank an impressive 64th in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention 25th in opponents floor percentage. The Rams offense will be taking a step up in class against N.C. State here, noting that the Wolfpack rank 11th in the country in steals per possession and 34th in block percentage. I do think Colorado State will have a tough time getting comfortable at the offensive end of the floor. Keep in mind, this is a Rams squad that shoots below 44% from the field away from home this season. Also alarming for Colorado State is the fact that it ranks 251st in the nation in extra scoring chances per game. Take the under (10*).
|03-22-21||Colorado v. Florida State UNDER 140.5||Top||53-71||Win||100||22 h 3 m||Show|
CBB Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Florida State at 7:45 pm et on Monday.
I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in second round action on Monday night. The Buffaloes exploded for 96 points in a rout of Georgetown on Saturday but I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. Monday's opponent, Florida State, entered the tournament ranked 12th in the nation in block percentage and 32nd in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. For its part, Colorado entered the tournament ranked a very respectable 41st in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 30th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Buffaloes 96-point outburst in the opening round was unlikely considering they rank north of 300th in the country in possessions per game. I expect a much different type of game to unfold against the Seminoles on Monday. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 when Colorado comes off a game where 155 or more points were scored over the last two seasons with those contests totaling just 126.6 points on average. The 'under' is also 24-8 when Colorado plays after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons with those games totaling an average of just 132.3 points. Take the under (10*).
|03-21-21||Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois UNDER 133.5||71-58||Win||100||23 h 46 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Loyola-Chicago and Illinois at 12:10 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the 'under' in Illinois' opening round win over Drexel and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play on Sunday as the Illini take in Loyola-Chicago. The Ramblers play at one of the slowest paces in the entire nation, yet they're coming off an 'over' result in their opening round matchup - a 71-60 win over Georgia Tech. Note that in 10 games where the Ramblers played on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, those contests totaled an average of just 126.7 points. Loyola-Chicago entered the tournament ranked tops in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 14th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Of course, Illinois is no slouch defensively as we saw on Friday as it held Drexel to 30.6% shooting. While Loyola-Chicago will likely improve on that shooting performance here, I'm not convinced it will be enough to get this one 'over' the total. In what has the potential to be a tightly-contested affair it's worth mentioning that Illinois ranks 234th in the country in free throw percentage. Take the under (10*).
|03-20-21||UCLA v. BYU OVER 138.5||Top||73-62||Loss||-108||13 h 6 m||Show|
CBB First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and BYU at 9:40 pm et on Saturday.
We won with the 'over' in UCLA's overtime victory over Michigan State in Thursday's First Four matchup and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here on Saturday as the Bruins take on the Cougars of BYU. As I noted in Thursday's analysis, Bruins head coach Mick Cronin noted during the Pac-12 Tournament that his team had 'hit a wall' both mentally and physically. I mentioned that I felt the week off following their exit from the Pac-12 Tournament might serve them well and that's precisely what appeared to be the case on Thursday as the Bruins played loose and scored 86 points (77 of those in regulation time), shooting better than 46% from the field and turning the ball over only eight times. I like the way this sets up as another relatively high-scoring affair on Saturday. Note that UCLA checks in 38th in the nation in offensive efficiency and an even better 27th in floor percentage. For its part, BYU also ranks highly at the offensive end of the floor, sitting 42nd in offensive efficiency and 59th in floor percentage. While the Cougars also check in as a solid defensive team, it's certainly worth noting that they didn't face many elite offenses outside of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference. In two matchups against Gonzaga, BYU gave up 82 and 88 points. While UCLA is by no means on the same level as Gonzaga, the point is still worth making as a now-healthy Bruins squad is certainly capable of giving the Cougars some heartburn defensively. I like the fact that neither team causes a great deal of chaos at the defensive end of the floor. UCLA ranks a miserable 299th in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage. For its part, BYU ranks 329th and 220th in those two categories, respectively. While the Bruins don't prefer a fast pace, ranking 288th in possessions per game, they do make up for it by ranking 61st in extra scoring chances per game. This may not turn out to be a track meet, but it doesn't have to be with the total sitting in the 130's. Take the over (10*).
|03-19-21||Drexel v. Illinois UNDER 143.5||49-78||Win||100||15 h 23 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'under' between Drexel and Illinois at 1:15 pm et on Friday.
We missed the mark with the 'under' in Illinois' Big Ten Championship Game win over Ohio State last Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Illini begin what they hope will be a deep NCAA Tournament run. While the Illini should handle Drexel without too much heartburn, there are a number of reasons why I believe the Dragons can at least keep things respectable and ultimately help keep this one 'under' the total. Drexel actually ranks 42nd in the nation in offensive efficiency this season and 50th in floor percentage. Against an Illinois defense that ranks 263rd in steals per possession and 224th in block percentage I do think the Dragons will be able to run their offense to a certain extent but I question how many productive possessions (possessions resulting in points) they'll have given Illinois ranks 34th in the nation in opponents effective field goal percentage. Note that Drexel ranks 319th in the country in possessions per game so it isn't going to look to push the pace in this one. That's obviously a stark contrast to Illinois, which ranks 70th in possessions per game but I do think the Dragons can at least make a concerted effort to bog things down a little bit in this one - it's really their only hope of staying competitive. I'll also point out that Drexel ranks 235th in extra scoring chances per game while Illinois has also been quite average in that category, ranking 130th. Take the under (10*).
|03-18-21||UCLA v. Michigan State OVER 134.5||86-80||Win||100||14 h 47 m||Show|
My selection is on the 'over' between UCLA and Michigan State at 9:55 pm et on Thursday.
In previous years this matchup may have set up as a defensive slugfest but given the current state of both programs, I'm anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair on Thursday night. Note that both UCLA and Michigan State have given up well north of 70 points per game away from home this season. Michigan State enters this game riding a six-game 'under' streak and admittedly played pretty solid defense down the stretch. I believe UCLA will give it some trouble on Thursday night, however. The time off since the Bruins made their unceremonious exit from the Pac-12 Tournament should have served them well as this was a team that head coach Mick Cronin admitted had 'hit the wall' near the end of a trying season due to injuries and otherwise. This 'First Four' berth gives the Bruins a new lease on life, so to speak. Note that UCLA ranks an impressive 28th in the nation in floor percentage this season and also checks in 62nd in the country in extra scoring chances per game. The problem for the Bruins is that they rank 199th in opponents effective field goal percentage, really not able to make life difficult on opposing offenses with any consistency over the course of the season. Michigan State got bogged down offensively at times but that's pretty much par for the course against some elite defensive teams in the Big Ten. Keep in mind, prior to the onset of conference play, the Spartans averaged 84.8 points per game in six non-conference tilts. Take the over (10*).
|03-18-21||Drake v. Wichita State UNDER 141||Top||53-52||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
First Four Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Drake and Wichita State at 6:25 pm et on Thursday.
I really like the way this one sets up as more of a grind-it-out, defensive battle than the oddsmakers are accounting for on Thursday. I expect to see both teams run their offenses in this one, with not a lot of fast break and transition points with both sides adept at taking care of the basketball. Note that Drake ranks an impressive ninth in the country in fewest turnovers per possession while Wichita State checks in a very respectable 24th. Drake is also 299th in the country in possessions per game with Wichita State in the middle of the pack in that department, ranking 168th. I'm not expecting either team to stray from their preferred style and really look to speed things up here with a berth in the field of 64 on the line. Drake is expected to have ShanQuan Hemphill back in the lineup for the first time since February but it remains to be seen how much he will contribute in his first game back. Both teams rank top-100 in the country in opponents effective field goal percentage this season, with Wichita State sitting in the top-50. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 when Wichita State follows two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 129.5 points. With the Missouri Valley Conference being quite top-heavy this season, Drake was able to pad its offensive stats against some weak opposition. Meanwhile, Wichita State - a former MVC member - now resides in the American Athletic Conference, which is known for its high-scoring, up-tempo teams. It all adds up to a relatively high posted total for this one, and I believe that number will prove too high. Take the under (10*).