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My selection is on the 'under' between Ohio State and Texas at 7:30 p.m. ET on Friday.

While Texas' overtime victory over Arizona State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal pushed the total over, this semifinal matchup against Ohio State sets up for a much tighter and lower-scoring affair. Both teams possess elite defenses that have carried them through the season, and I expect those units to take center stage once again.

Ohio State's offense has been impressive in its first two CFP matchups, scoring 42 and 41 points, but it's worth noting that those performances came against defenses that don't measure up to Texas' caliber. The Longhorns' defense has been among the most dominant in college football this season, consistently shutting down opponents and dictating the pace of play. Even in their wild finish against Arizona State, Texas' defense was solid for the majority of the game, with lapses coming late in regulation and overtime.

On the other side, Texas' offense has shown flashes of explosiveness but will face its toughest test yet in Ohio State's defense. The Buckeyes have been a model of consistency, holding eight straight and 12 of their last 13 opponents to 21 points or fewer. Their ability to stymie both the run and pass ensures that Texas will have to work for every yard and point in this matchup.

With both teams excelling defensively and the stakes at their peak, this game has all the makings of a defensive battle where field position and time of possession are prioritized. Scoring opportunities will likely be limited, and the game flow should favor a slower, more methodical pace.

Take the under. Projected score: Ohio State 24, Texas 20.

Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Penn State at 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Both Notre Dame and Penn State are coming off lower-scoring games in the College Football Playoffs, but this matchup sets up for a more offensively driven contest. Notre Dame's win over Georgia was influenced by the Bulldogs operating with a backup quarterback, leading to a conservative offensive approach. Against Penn State, the Irish face a much more explosive offense that has scored 30+ points in four straight games and six of its last seven.

Notre Dame has also been highly productive offensively, surpassing the 30-point mark in nine of its last 12 contests. While the Irish were able to dictate a slower tempo against Georgia by playing from ahead, this game projects to be a back-and-forth battle, encouraging a more open style of play. Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score consistently throughout the season, and with the total set in the mid-40s, there’s plenty of room for this game to comfortably exceed expectations.

Expect this high-stakes matchup in Miami to bring out the best in both offenses.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 28, Notre Dame 24.

My selection is on the 'over' between Notre Dame and Georgia at 4 pm ET on Thursday.

This College Football Playoff clash at the Superdome sets up as a high-scoring affair. Notre Dame enters off a controlled 27-17 victory over Indiana, but that result was shaped by the environment—a home game in mid-December with fewer offensive fireworks. In this neutral-site setting, the Irish offense should shine, having averaged over 38 points per game this season. Notre Dame has been particularly consistent down the stretch, scoring 30 or more points in eight of its last nine contests.

Georgia, meanwhile, boasts a balanced attack that has averaged 33.2 points per game against one of the toughest schedules in the nation. The Bulldogs are coming off a gritty 22-19 win over Texas in the SEC Championship, but their offense is more than capable of exploiting opportunities, particularly indoors at the Superdome.

With both teams’ offenses carrying momentum into this game, and with Georgia’s defense showing occasional vulnerability against elite competition, expect plenty of points on Wednesday night.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia 27, Notre Dame 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Arizona State at 1 pm ET on Wednesday.

Arizona State has been red-hot offensively, tallying 49 and 45 points in its last two contests during its six-game SU and ATS winning streak. However, this matchup against Texas presents a much tougher test. The Longhorns, fresh off a dominant win over Clemson, boast one of the nation’s most formidable defenses, allowing just 13.3 points per game this season.

While Texas scored 38 points in its first-round victory, it has been far from explosive offensively, failing to reach 21 points in four of its last eight games. Arizona State's defense has been reliable as well, holding every opponent this season to 31 points or fewer. With both teams stepping up in competition and the stakes higher than ever, expect a more conservative and defensive-minded approach.

Take the under. Projected score: Texas 27, Arizona State 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between Penn State and Boise State at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

After a round of low-scoring blowouts in the first stage of the College Football Playoffs, I anticipate a much more competitive and high-scoring contest in this Fiesta Bowl matchup. Penn State dominated SMU in the opening round, cashing the 'under,' but that result was largely due to SMU's inability to contribute offensively. Boise State is a more formidable opponent and enters this game knowing it must be aggressive offensively to have a chance at the upset.

While Boise State has delivered three consecutive 'under' results, those came in games where it was the favorite, dictating the pace. Here, as a sizable underdog, the Broncos will likely lean on their playmaking ability to stay in the game. Penn State, meanwhile, has proven itself capable of putting up points in bunches, averaging nearly 34 points per game this season, including an even higher average on grass surfaces.

Both teams have the tools to exploit each other’s defenses, and with the stakes at their highest, this one has all the makings of a shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Penn State 38, Boise State 28.

Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa and Missouri at 2:30 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this matchup following 'under' results in their respective regular-season finales, but the setup here points toward a higher-scoring affair. Iowa has shed its historically conservative offensive identity this season, averaging 28 points per game and displaying a more balanced approach. That should carry over against a Missouri defense that has surrendered over 20 points per contest this season.

On the flip side, Missouri has been in strong form offensively, averaging 31.8 points per game over its final four contests, showcasing its ability to put up points against varying levels of competition. It's unlikely the Tigers will aim to slow things down, especially given their recent scoring momentum.

While bowl games often present the risk of rust due to extended layoffs, this matchup takes place under favorable conditions in Nashville, minimizing concerns about weather disruptions. The trends also support the 'over,' with Iowa hitting the mark in five of its last seven games and Missouri doing so in three of its last four.

Take the over. Projected score: Iowa 28, Missouri 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt at 3:30 pm ET on Friday.

Georgia Tech enters this Bowl game fresh off two consecutive high-scoring contests, including a chaotic 44-42 multi-overtime loss to rival Georgia. However, those results appear to be outliers in what has otherwise been a season defined by low-scoring affairs. The 'under' has cashed in seven of the Yellow Jackets' 12 games this year, with three straight staying 'under' the total prior to their recent shootouts.

Vanderbilt also saw its regular season finale produce plenty of scoring in a 36-23 loss to Tennessee. However, the Commodores have generally struggled to put points on the board, with the 'under' going 5-0-1 in their previous six contests. It's notable that Vanderbilt hasn't scored more than 24 points in its last eight games, and its offensive ceiling remains limited.

With both teams looking to impose their will defensively and neither boasting a consistently explosive offense, I expect a slower-paced and lower-scoring matchup in this neutral-site Bowl game.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Georgia Tech 23, Vanderbilt 20.

My selection is on the 'over' between Arkansas State and Bowling Green at 9 pm ET on Thursday.

This bowl game might not grab national headlines, but it has the makings of a high-scoring affair. Both Arkansas State and Bowling Green are offensively capable and defensively suspect, setting the stage for a shootout in Mobile, Alabama, where weather conditions are expected to be ideal.

Arkansas State has shown offensive consistency, scoring 27+ points in five of its last six games. However, its defense has been a liability, surrendering 30+ points on five occasions this season. On the other side, Bowling Green’s offense found its groove late in the season, scoring 30+ points in three of its final four games before a season-ending loss to Miami-Ohio.

While both teams managed to deliver a couple of defensive highlights earlier in the season—Arkansas State limiting Michigan to 28 points and Bowling Green holding Texas A&M to 26—those performances feel like distant memories given their defensive struggles against more modest competition down the stretch.

With neither defense likely to offer much resistance and both offenses capable of taking advantage, this matchup should deliver plenty of points under the lights on Thursday night.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Bowling Green 35, Arkansas State 31.

My selection is on the 'under' between SMU and Penn State at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

This total seems inflated given the context of the matchup. Both teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results, with Penn State riding a streak of four straight 'overs.' However, this early kickoff in Happy Valley sets up for a more measured, defensive battle.

SMU's offense has been electric, scoring 30+ points in all but three games this season, including a strong showing in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. However, they'll face a much tougher test here against a Penn State defense that has been one of the nation's best, holding nine opponents to 20 points or fewer this season. The Nittany Lions will be looking to bounce back after a rare defensive lapse in the Big Ten Championship, where they allowed 45 points to Oregon.

The two-week layoff for both teams could lead to some offensive rust early in the contest, particularly against Penn State's disciplined defense. On the other side, SMU's defense has shown improvement as the season has progressed and will likely benefit from the added preparation time to scheme against Penn State's balanced but not overly explosive offense.

Expect a lower-scoring game than most anticipate in this matchup.

Take the under. Projected score: Penn State 27, SMU 20.

My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Notre Dame at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This total feels inflated for a matchup involving a stout Notre Dame defense. The Irish have been excellent on that side of the ball, allowing just 13.6 points per game this season. They’ll look to turn this into a physical, grind-it-out affair in their backyard, particularly after having three weeks off to prepare. While Notre Dame enters this contest on the heels of consecutive 'over' results, those outcomes may not be indicative of what we’ll see in this game, especially given the extended layoff, which could lead to some early offensive rust.

Indiana’s offensive success this season can’t be overlooked, but it’s important to note that the Hoosiers were held to just 20 and 15 points in back-to-back games against Michigan and Ohio State, two teams with defenses on par with Notre Dame's. Like the Irish, Indiana comes into this game following consecutive 'over' results, but those were against more offensively-oriented teams.

With both teams likely to prioritize defense and methodical play, this matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring outcome.

Take the under. Projected score: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 20.

My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

While both teams have leaned toward lower-scoring games recently, this matchup presents an opportunity for offensive fireworks. The total has risen since opening, signaling sharp interest in a potential high-scoring affair.

Sam Houston State’s offense struggled for much of the season, but with nearly three weeks to prepare for this Bowl game, the Bearkats should have had time to make adjustments and incorporate new wrinkles. Their defense, while impressive down the stretch, holding five straight opponents to 21 points or less, will face a stiff challenge against Georgia Southern’s capable offense.

The Eagles have consistently found success offensively, scoring 24 points or more in six of their last eight games. While their defense has been solid, they did allow 20+ points in four of their final five regular-season contests, suggesting vulnerabilities that Sam Houston State can exploit.

The fast track of the Caesars Superdome should also favor a higher-scoring game, as both offenses aim to make a statement in this Bowl matchup. With both teams capable of contributing to the scoreboard, the setup points to a sneaky shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: Georgia Southern 31, Sam Houston State 24.

My selection is on the 'under' between Western Kentucky and James Madison at 5:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this matchup after high-scoring affairs, but the setup here points toward a lower-scoring game. Western Kentucky is coming off a lopsided 52-14 loss to Jacksonville State in the C-USA Championship Game. While that result might suggest defensive struggles, the Hilltoppers' defense has been serviceable overall this season, holding that same Jacksonville State team to just 17 points in their prior meeting. The more concerning factor for WKU has been its sputtering offense, which managed just 21 points or fewer in each of its final four games.

James Madison, on the other hand, is looking to rebound after back-to-back upset losses. The Dukes’ most recent game against Marshall ended in a 35-33 shootout, but that was an outlier for a JMU defense that has otherwise been solid this season. This matchup against a struggling WKU offense should give the Dukes an opportunity to tighten up and return to form on the defensive side of the ball.

Additionally, wet weather in Boca Raton may lead to less-than-ideal field conditions on the natural grass surface, potentially slowing down both offenses. Given Western Kentucky’s recent offensive struggles and James Madison’s defensive potential, this game is shaping up to stay under the posted total.

Take the under. Projected score: James Madison 24, Western Kentucky 17.

My selection is on the 'over' between South Alabama and Western Michigan at 9 pm ET on Saturday.

South Alabama has been firing on all cylinders offensively, scoring 35 or more points in four of their last five games. Their offense has been explosive, and playing in familiar conditions for the Salute to Veterans Bowl, they should have no trouble continuing to put up big numbers. Western Michigan, although they finished their regular season with three straight games going under the total, has been known for its high-scoring, fast-paced games earlier this season, including multiple 40-point outings. Given the Broncos' offensive firepower and their tendency to engage in shootouts, I expect them to break out of their recent scoring funk.

The game also benefits from favorable weather conditions and a neutral-site setting, creating an environment that favors offensive execution. With both teams capable of putting up big numbers, the total looks to be too low for this matchup.

Take the over. Projected score: South Alabama 38, Western Michigan 31.

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Penn State and Oregon at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, a closer look at their defensive profiles suggests this contest could be lower-scoring than expected. Penn State's last three games all went 'over,' but the Nittany Lions carried much of the scoring load themselves against Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland. Their defense remains a strength, having allowed more than 20 points just once in their last six outings.

Oregon, despite a 49-21 shootout win over Washington last week, has been remarkably consistent defensively. The Ducks have held six straight opponents to 21 points or fewer, showcasing their ability to limit scoring opportunities. Their methodical offense also contributes to game flow that often prevents back-and-forth shootouts.

Both defenses are capable of stepping up in big games, and with two disciplined units on the field, the scoring pace should remain manageable throughout.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Penn State 24, Oregon 20.

AAC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Tulane and Army at 8 pm ET on Friday.

This AAC Championship Game projects as a hard-nosed affair. Tulane enters looking to rebound after its eight-game winning streak was snapped by Memphis last week. The Green Wave defense had been dominant prior to that setback, allowing just nine points total in its previous three contests, including a shutout of Navy’s triple-option attack—a potentially key factor in preparing for Army's similar offensive scheme.

Army's offense, which started the season strongly, has cooled off significantly. The Black Knights managed 20 points or fewer in three of their last four games, suggesting that Tulane's stout defense could have an edge. Defensively, while Army struggled in its final two games of the regular season, conceding 73 points, the unit has shown flashes of being able to slow down opponents and will look to tighten up in this high-stakes contest.

With both teams potentially leaning on their running games to control the clock and limit possessions, this game is likely to stay below the total.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Tulane 24, Army 13.

My selection is on the 'under' between New Mexico and Hawaii at 11 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances, this matchup sets up for a more conservative outcome. Both New Mexico and Hawaii have had two weeks to prepare since last playing on November 16th, which should allow their defenses to tighten up against familiar offensive schemes.

New Mexico has shown flashes of explosiveness but remains inconsistent. Earlier this season, the Lobos managed only six points against Colorado State. On the other side, Hawaii has struggled to find offensive rhythm, scoring 24 points or fewer in five of its last seven contests. This has contributed to the 'under' hitting in six of the Rainbow Warriors' 10 lined games this season.

Given the extra preparation time and the tendency for these teams to stall offensively, look for a lower-scoring affair than expected in this late-night clash.

Take the under. Projected score: New Mexico 28, Hawaii 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Central Florida at 8 pm ET on Friday.

Both teams have struggled through disappointing seasons and have allowed significant points recently, but in this matchup, expect a more controlled and defensive-minded game. Utah, known for its solid defense, has been caught off guard by tough opponents, giving up 49 points to Colorado and 31 to Iowa State in its last two outings. Similarly, Central Florida has faced defensive lapses in recent weeks, allowing 35 points to Arizona State and 31 to West Virginia.

However, with both teams having nothing to lose and trying to finish the season strong, this should be a game where both teams focus on limiting mistakes and stepping up defensively. The result will likely be a lower-scoring affair, with both teams struggling to generate consistent offense.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Central Florida 20, Utah 17.

My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Tulane at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Memphis enters this matchup without a chance to reach the AAC Championship Game, while Tulane has its spot secured to face Army next week. Despite Memphis’ offensive outburst in a 53-point performance against a struggling UAB defense last week, they’ll face a formidable challenge against Tulane. The Green Wave have allowed just nine points combined in their last three games, showcasing one of the nation’s top defenses. Ranked 17th nationally, Tulane has thrived on stifling opponents and controlling the pace of play.

Offensively, Tulane prefers a methodical approach, emphasizing time of possession and consistent, clock-draining drives. This style complements their defensive strategy and keeps games low-scoring. Memphis will find it difficult to replicate their recent offensive success against a much stronger opponent.

Last year’s meeting saw 52 total points, and with similar dynamics, another low-scoring game seems likely. Look for Tulane's defensive dominance and deliberate style to dictate the flow of this matchup.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Tulane 24, Memphis 17.

MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Buffalo at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Kent State has endured a tough season, sitting winless at 0-11. While the Golden Flashes managed 17 points in last week’s game, they’ve been consistently stymied offensively, failing to score more than 21 points in five consecutive contests. Buffalo, on the other hand, has been riding high with three straight victories, clinching bowl eligibility last week. Despite the Bulls’ recent scoring success, they’re unlikely to need a big offensive output to handle Kent State in this spot.

Historical trends and current conditions further bolster the case for the 'under.' Last year’s matchup between these teams produced just 30 total points. Additionally, the game is set to be played in Buffalo under cold and windy conditions, likely hampering both teams' ability to move the ball effectively. With a struggling Kent State offense and Buffalo’s incentive to manage the game efficiently, a low-scoring affair appears likely.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Buffalo 27, Kent State 7.

My selection is on the 'over' between Rice and UAB at 2 pm ET on Saturday.

Rice has seen the 'under' cash in four straight games, but this matchup against UAB could break that trend. The Owls’ offense has been inconsistent, but they face a Blazers defense that has struggled all season, allowing 31 points or more in eight of their 10 games. That provides an opportunity for Rice to find more success offensively than they’ve had in recent weeks.

UAB’s defense has been porous, giving up 53 points to Memphis last week and showing an inability to contain opponents throughout the season. On offense, UAB had shown some life prior to last week, scoring 23 or more points in three straight contests. Against a Rice defense that has struggled to contain better offenses, the Blazers should be able to contribute their share of scoring.

With both teams out of Bowl contention, this game could lack defensive intensity, paving the way for a higher-scoring contest. Neither defense has proven reliable, and with favorable conditions for both offenses, this matchup has the potential to exceed the total.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Rice 35, UAB 27.

My selection is on the 'over' between North Carolina and Boston College at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

North Carolina has been on an offensive roll, winning three straight games and posting impressive point totals of 41, 35, and 31 in their most recent victories. With one more win needed for Bowl eligibility, the Tar Heels will be motivated to keep their high-scoring ways going in this crucial matchup. Boston College, while struggling defensively, has been more effective offensively in recent weeks, scoring 37 and 28 points in their last two games. However, the Eagles have been porous on defense, allowing 42, 31, 31, and 38 points in their last four games.

With both teams showing the potential for solid offensive production and Boston College’s defense struggling to contain opposing attacks, this game sets up for a high-scoring affair. North Carolina is likely to continue putting up points as they chase Bowl eligibility, while Boston College will need to score to keep pace in a potential shootout.

Take the over. Projected score: North Carolina 38, Boston College 28.

My selection is on the 'under' between Temple and UTSA at 7 pm ET on Friday.

Temple has been a poor offensive team all season, scoring 20 points or fewer in eight of its 10 games. In fact, the Owls have managed just 24 points combined in their last two contests. Last week’s 18-15 overtime victory over Florida Atlantic highlighted the Owls’ ongoing offensive struggles. They have struggled to generate consistent production, and their methodical style of play tends to grind games to a halt, which works against high-scoring outcomes.

On the other hand, UTSA has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, with the 'over' cashing in their last five games. However, these contests came against teams known for their shootout tendencies, such as Tulsa, Memphis, and North Texas. The Roadrunners’ offense, while potent, could face some challenges in this matchup, as Temple is likely to limit the pace and control the ball in an effort to keep the score down.

Given Temple’s offensive ineptitude and UTSA’s potential to be slowed down in a lower-scoring contest, this game sets up for fewer points than we’ve seen in UTSA's recent matchups.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: UTSA 34, Temple 13.

My selection is on the over between Akron and Kent State at 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday.

Akron comes into this game off a 29-16 loss to Northern Illinois, dropping their record to 2-8 on the season. Akron has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season, including against two-win FCS opponent Colgate, which points to potential for Kent State to score. Kent State, still winless at 0-10, has allowed 127 points over its last three games, showing vulnerability defensively. While Kent State hasn't been consistent offensively, they did manage to score 33 and 35 points in two home games earlier this season, indicating that they can put up points when facing a defense like Akron’s.

The rivalry between these two teams often leads to higher-scoring games, and last year’s meeting produced 58 total points. With both teams struggling defensively and Akron’s inability to shut down opponents, this matchup has the potential to hit the over. Both teams are capable of generating some offense, and the defensive weaknesses on both sides should create opportunities for scoring.

Take the over. Projected score: Akron 34, Kent State 27.

My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas and BYU at 10:15 pm ET on Saturday.

While Kansas has seen high-scoring outcomes recently, including six consecutive 'over' results, this trend may not continue against a BYU team that has proven to be comfortable in lower-scoring, defensively focused games. Kansas’ offensive numbers have been boosted in part by matchups with less disciplined defenses, and BYU's defense presents a significant upgrade in opposition. BYU has allowed 24 or fewer points in three of its last four and seven of its nine games overall this season, showcasing the unit's consistency and ability to control the pace, which is vital against a Kansas team looking to push the tempo.

BYU's offense, though efficient, is typically conservative and likely to employ a slower tempo to limit Kansas' scoring opportunities. In a matchup that pits BYU’s defensive strength against Kansas' recent offensive outputs, a lower total feels like a logical outcome, as the Cougars’ defensive schemes should keep Kansas from establishing a comfortable rhythm.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: BYU 27, Kansas 20.

AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between UAB and Memphis at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

UAB has shown signs of offensive improvement, scoring 107 points over the last three games after a period of struggles. This uptick in scoring, coupled with Memphis' potent offense, suggests that both teams could contribute to a higher-scoring affair. UAB has averaged just over 30 points in its last three games, which is a stark contrast to its earlier season struggles, and Memphis has consistently been a high-scoring team, averaging 30+ points per game and ranking inside the top-30 in total points.

Memphis’ offense, led by an efficient passing attack, should have success against UAB’s defense, which has struggled to stop explosive plays. UAB’s recent offensive resurgence, along with Memphis’ ability to score in bunches, makes this matchup ripe for a higher total, especially when factoring in that last year's meeting ended in a 45-21 blowout in favor of Memphis, which shows these two teams can combine for significant points.

Despite Memphis posting an 'under' in their last game, the Tigers have regularly hit the over this season, and UAB’s offensive improvement gives a strong indication this could be a high-scoring game. Take the over. Projected score: Memphis 41, UAB 28.

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Arizona at 10:15 pm ET on Friday.

Both Houston and Arizona have shown struggles on offense this season, making the 'under' an appealing option in this matchup. Houston has been particularly strong defensively, allowing 20 points or fewer in four of their last five games, including a 24-19 win over Kansas State in their most recent outing. Their defense has been the cornerstone of their success, and they’ll look to slow down Arizona's offense, which has been inconsistent all year. Arizona, on the other hand, has been struggling on both sides of the ball, especially after their humbling 56-12 loss to Central Florida. The Wildcats have lost five straight and are averaging fewer than 20 points per game over their last few contests, a trend that doesn’t inspire confidence in a high-scoring affair.

Both teams are also ranked outside the top-100 in points per game this season, further suggesting that this will be a low-scoring battle. With Houston likely focusing on defense and Arizona struggling to find consistency offensively, it’s reasonable to expect a game where both teams struggle to break 20 points. Given the total is set in the mid-40's, I’m expecting this game to stay well under that number.

Take the 'under'. Projected score: Houston 21, Arizona 14.

My selection is on the 'under' between Kent State and Miami-Ohio at 7 pm ET on Wednesday.

Kent State’s offensive struggles were evident in last week's 41-0 shutout loss against Ohio, continuing a season-long trend for a team that has yet to find the win column. Kent State has been ineffective in generating scoring opportunities, averaging just 15.1 points per game, and will now face a Miami-Ohio defense that has been particularly reliable this season. Miami-Ohio has held opponents to 21 points or fewer in each of its last five games, including last week’s 27-21 road win over Ball State.

Miami-Ohio's offense has been steady but unspectacular, often relying on its defense to secure wins. Kent State's offensive limitations should allow Miami’s defense to control the pace and keep scoring in check. Given these factors, this game projects as a lower-scoring affair. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Miami-Ohio 27, Kent State 10.

My selection is on the 'under' between Central Michigan and Toledo at 7 pm ET on Tuesday.

While Toledo has a reputation as a high-powered offensive team, recent games have shown a more moderate scoring output. The Rockets are coming off their bye week after a close 29-28 win over Eastern Michigan, and despite their offensive potential, they've scored fewer than 30 points in five of their last six games. Central Michigan, on the other hand, has struggled significantly on offense, managing just 20 points combined over its last two games and extending its losing streak to four.

The Chippewas’ ongoing offensive woes, combined with Toledo's recent trend of lower-scoring results, suggest this matchup could turn into a grind. Central Michigan's offensive limitations and Toledo's tempered scoring pace set this one up well to stay 'under' the total. Take the 'under.' Projected score: Toledo 27, Central Michigan 17.

ACC Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Miami and Georgia Tech at 12 noon ET on Saturday.

Miami is coming off a 53-31 win over Duke, which was a high-scoring affair, but they’ve been more balanced offensively this season, and their defense has been solid overall, especially against teams that struggle to consistently move the ball. The Hurricanes’ defense has had some slip-ups but should be able to contain Georgia Tech’s offense, which has struggled to generate consistent points since late September. Miami’s ability to control the tempo of the game should slow down Georgia Tech’s attack and keep the game under the total.

Georgia Tech’s offense started the season strong, but it has struggled significantly since late September. Their most recent game was a 21-6 loss to Virginia Tech, and they’ve had difficulty putting together sustained scoring drives in recent weeks. While their defense has been decent, they simply lack the offensive firepower to push the score into a higher range. With both teams emphasizing defense and Georgia Tech’s continued offensive struggles, this matchup should stay under the total.

Take the under. Prediction: Miami 28, Georgia Tech 14.

My selection is on the 'over' between Ohio and Kent State at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

This series has produced some high-scoring games in recent years with all five matchups dating back to 2018 eclipsing the total we're working with on Wednesday. Kent State is obviously down bad this season, having yet to win a game. If it is going to end that losing streak with a stunning upset on Wednesday it will need to get its offense rolling. The good news is, we've seen the Golden Flashes offense thrive at home previously this season, scoring 33 and 35 points in losses to Eastern Michigan and Ball State. The problem here is that Kent State will need to keep Ohio's offense under wraps and that figures to be a tall task with the Bobcats offense seemingly getting better each week with dual-threat QB Parker Navarro taking over at times. Ohio figures to be able to run its offense without much resistance here, also noting that Kent State has drawn as few as 7,322 fans to its home games this season. Expect plenty of offensive fireworks in this contest. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Massachusetts and Mississippi State at 4:15 pm et on Saturday.

This is a true 'get right' game for Mississippi State as it enters riding a seven-game losing streak having taken its lumps in SEC play. I do think the Bulldogs defense will thrive in this matchup but I'm not convinced its sputtering offense will follow suit. We have seen Mississippi State's offense put up some points in recent weeks but that was largely game-script related as it was trailing by big margins in those contests and facing defenses that were in let-up mode. We're likely to see the opposite game script unfold here with the Bulldogs installed as big home favorites. Massachusetts is certainly accustomed to being overmatched this season. It has won only twice including a blowout victory over FCS squad Wagner last week. While the end results didn't go in their favor, I did feel the Minutemen at least kept things respectable (relatively speaking) in notable losses to Toledo, Northern Illinois and Missouri (arguably the three most difficult opponents on their schedule to this point). Offensively, UMass has scored more than 23 points on only two occasions this season and both came against FCS opponents. This probably isn't a game you want to sit down and watch on Saturday but we'll look to end up on the right side of the total nonetheless. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Duke and Miami at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I think Duke has a shot at making this game competitive and to do that it will have to stay up defensively, just as it has all season. The Blue Devils have quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the country on their way to a 6-2 record. Duke has allowed more than 24 points just once and that came thanks to overtime in last week's 28-27 defeat against SMU (it gave up only 21 points in regulation time). Offensively, the Blue Devils have been fairly limited. They've been held to 26 points or fewer in regulation time in seven of their eight contests and don't figure to suddenly break out on the road against a talented Miami defense. The name of the game for Duke will be taking care of the football and effectively shortening proceedings and that certainly works in our favor with the 'under'. Miami has been a juggernaut offensively and the path to running the table in the regular season is clear. I do expect the Hurricanes to at least face some resistance here, however, after scoring 36 points or more in all eight games this season. Of note, Miami's schedule has been very forgiving to this point with few capable defensive foes. I do think the potential is there for a letdown of sorts here after last week's blowout win under the lights against rival Florida State. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between San Diego State and Boise State at 8 pm et on Friday.

Boise State enters this matchup off consecutive 'under' results against Hawaii and UNLV. Last Friday's showdown with UNLV was projected to be a wild shootout and it looked like it was setting up that way until the Broncos took the air out of the football in the fourth quarter. We know this Boise State team can score with the best of them and I think we see it get pushed a little bit against San Diego State on Friday. The Aztecs are certainly not known for their offense but they have shown improvement in that department over the course of the season. They enter off a 29-26 loss at home against Washington State last Saturday. With just two victories over FBS opponents so far this season, they're certainly facing an uphill battle with five games remaining on the schedule. With that being said, there are winnable contests ahead including home games against New Mexico and Air Force and a road tilt against Utah State. But I digress. Here, I think we see San Diego State open up the playbook as it projects to play from behind for much of the night. Boise State is by no means a defensive powerhouse, ranking 202nd in the country in total yards allowed per game and 208th in points allowed per contest. The most recent meeting between these two teams produced 65 points last September. Take the over (8*).

Conference-USA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Jacksonville State and Liberty at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Jacksonville State has been running up the score on its recent opponents, reeling off four straight wins while scoring 42 points or more in all four contests. Keep in mind, those games came against the likes of Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee (combined 6-25 record). It figures to face a much more difficult challenge as it travels to Lynchburg to take on Liberty on Wednesday. The Flames will be in a foul mood after losing to then-winless Kennesaw State last week. Liberty hasn't been the same offensive juggernaut we've been accustomed to seeing in recent years - forced to rely a little more on its defense to come up big and that's not necessarily a bad thing. I do think the Flames match up well against the high-powered Gamecocks offense. Note that last year's meeting between these two teams produced only 44 total points. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Florida International at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

The perception is that these two teams are very bad and that along with the fact that Florida International was involved in a game that totalled just 17 points last week is weighing heavily on this total. I think there's a good chance we see the Panthers offense bounce back after getting bogged down against a good Sam Houston State defense last week. New Mexico State has allowed 30 points or more in six of seven games so far this season. The Aggies do come off their bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for a very beatable FIU defense. New Mexico State has shown flashes of brilliance offensively this season, most notably in a wild 50-40 loss against in-state rival New Mexico and last time out in a 33-30 double-overtime win over Louisiana Tech. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 51 points. Take the over (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Rutgers and USC at 11 pm et on Friday.

Both of these teams enter this Big Ten showdown riding three-game losing streaks. Both teams have to realize that they need to get back to doing what made them successful earlier in the season and that means playing some defense. Rutgers allowed 35 points in last Saturday's wild, high-scoring defeat in Piscataway. That came on the heels of a game in which the Scarlet Knights allowed 42 points in a blowout loss to Wisconsin. Remember, this is a team that had allowed 23 points or less in each of its first five games this season. With a limited offense, the Scarlet Knights know that they can ill afford to continue to get involved in shootouts. It's a similar story for USC, even if it does possess a high-powered offense. The Trojans gave up a grand total of 41 points in their first three victories this season - part of a 3-1 start. Since then they've been trampled for 24, 33 and 29 points in three consecutive tightly-contested defeats. Expect a return to fundamentals from USC in this winnable game at home on Friday. Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Georgia Southern and Old Dominion at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We've been high on the Old Dominion defense all season - remember we cashed with the Monarchs as a big underdog against South Carolina way back in Week 1. While there have been some bumps in the road, ODU has steadied itself to deliver consecutive low-scoring victories in-conference to move to 2-1 in Sun Belt play, setting up this game for first place in the East Division. Colton Joseph has taken over from Grant Wilson at quarterback, effectively settling the Monarchs offense. This is very much a run-first attack at this point with Joseph leading the team in rushing in each of the last two games. Georgia Southern has gotten hot since a slow start, reeling off three straight victories. Surprisingly, it has been the Eagles defense that has paved the way, holding their three Sun Belt opponents to 21, 23 and 14 points (all victories). As much as the Eagles would like to open things up offensively in this matchup, I'm not sure they'll see a ton of open field. This matchup produced a slugfest last year with Old Dominion going on the road and winning 20-17. I believe this total will prove too high. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

We got the result we wanted from UTEP last week to help keep this total higher than it probably should be. The Miners scored 30 points in a home win over Florida International, thriving offensively in their first game without QB Cade McConnell. I'm not counting on continued success from UTEP here as it makes the difficult trip to Ruston to face Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs were involved in a high-scoring game of their own last week as they fell 33-30 in double-overtime at New Mexico State. I expect the scoring to settle down here, noting that last year's matchup between these two teams reached only 34 total points. Both offenses are limited and I'm not anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks on Tuesday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between UNLV and Oregon State at 10 pm et on Saturday.

These two teams are coming off a string of wild, high-scoring affairs - a big reason why this total is hovering around the 60-point mark. I don't think Oregon State will have any interest in a track meet on Saturday, however, as it knows that its offense, while productive at times, isn't consistent enough to prevail in that type of environment. UNLV is almost certainly in line for some regression offensively after putting up 59, 41 and 50 points over its last three games. Keep in mind, two of those performances came in the friendly confines of Allegiant Stadium while the other came against one of the worst defenses in the country in Utah State. Remember, earlier this season the Rebels were involved in road games that totalled just 34 and 43 points against Houston and Kansas, respectively. I believe this total will prove too high under the lights in Corvallis. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Purdue at 8 pm et on Friday.

This is a tough spot for both of these teams with Oregon just six days removed from its thrilling come-from-behind win over Ohio State and Purdue coming off a wild 50-49 overtime loss against Illinois on the same day. Considering the Boilermakers had been held to 10 points or less in three of their previous five games, an offensive letdown is sure to be in order against an elite Oregon defense on Friday. Meanwhile, the Ducks have been incredibly consistent offensively this season but perhaps not quite as explosive as in previous years, topping out at 37 points in five of their six contests (they scored 49 points in an outlier performance against Oregon State). This game presents an opportunity for Oregon to catch its breath following the massive win over Ohio State. I believe the total will prove too high. Take the under (8*).

Conference-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Western Kentucky and Sam Houston State at 7 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams are in for some offensive regression on Wednesday as they match up in Huntsville. Sam Houston State has scored 40 and 41 points in its last two games and has generally exceeded expectations from an offensive standpoint this season. The Bearkats figure to face a lot more resistance against Western Kentucky than they did in their most recent contest against a dreadful UTEP team. Note that the Hilltoppers have held the likes of Toledo (at home) and Boston College (on the road) to an identical 21 points. Like Sam Houston State, Western Kentucky figures to get a bit of a wake-up call after annihilating UTEP 44-17 just six days ago. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a close one as WKU prevailed 28-23. That contest reached 'only' 51 points despite a 30-point second quarter. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose State and Colorado State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams were involved in wild, high-scoring games last week. I expect nothing of the sort this week as San Jose State travels to face Colorado State. The Rams scored 31 points in a double-overtime loss against Oregon State last Saturday. The last time they scored 30+ points in a game they followed it up with a nine-point effort against rival Colorado. San Jose State has displayed a far more explosive offensive than most expected this season but I do think there will be bumps in the road. Keep in mind, this is a team that was held to 17 points in a road game against a struggling Air Force squad earlier this season. I think this is a sneaky-tough road trip off the thrilling win over Nevada last Saturday. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona State at 10:30 pm et on Friday.

It seems like an eternity since Utah last played. In actuality it was on September 28th as the Utes fell by a 23-10 against Arizona. QB Cam Rising is expected to return from a finger injury suffered in Utah's second game of the season against Baylor. You have to wonder about rust from Rising as he's missed so much time over the last couple of years. Defensively, the Utes have been terrific in the early going this season and match up well against the Sun Devils. Arizona State has been running up some big scores this season but this will be its toughest test in terms of opposing defense. I expect points to come at a premium. Take the under (8*).

Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Nevada and San Jose State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off bye weeks, giving them extra time to prepare for what will be a familiar opponent in-conference on Saturday. It's also worth noting that both teams are coming off high-scoring games with Nevada rolling to a 49-16 victory over FCS opponent Eastern Washington and San Jose State falling in a wild 54-52 double-overtime game at Washington State. I'm not convinced that either team wants any part of a shootout here. San Jose State was involved in an incredibly low-scoring game in its Mountain West Conference opener this season as it held on for a 17-7 home win over Air Force. For Nevada, this will be its first MWC game of the campaign. Installed as a considerable favorite, the Spartans will look to grab a lead and take the air out of the football with their ground attack and that's a very reasonable gameplan against a Nevada team that can be bullied up front. The Wolf Pack appeared to be moving in the wrong direction after a hot start to the campaign, scoring a grand total of 17 points in losses to Georgia Southern and Minnesota before busting out against Eastern Washington. This sets up as a game where Nevada look to keep it simple and keep the Spartans within arm's reach and hope to get a couple of breaks late to steal a road win. It all adds up to a relatively low-scoring affair in San Jose. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Syracuse and UNLV at 9 pm et on Friday.

Credit UNLV for rising to the occasion and delivering a knockout blow against Fresno State last week. You'll probably never see a better game out of QB Hajj-Malik Williams. Things get a little tougher this week as the Runnin' Rebels welcome 3-1 Syracuse to Allegiant Stadium. I think the total has been set too high. The Orange lit up FCS opponent Holy Cross last time out, scoring 42 points in a rout. Here, I look for the Orange to do all they can to control proceedings and not let this one turn into a track meet. Note that the 'under' is 11-3 in Syracuse's last 14 road games following a home win by 28 points or more. The 'under' is also a long-term 49-29 with the Orange playing on the road against an opponent with a winning record. Meanwhile, UNLV has seen the 'under' go 17-8 in its last 25 contests following a home victory by 17 points or more. Take the under (8*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Illinois and Penn State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Two top-25 ranked, undefeated Big Ten teams will do battle at Beaver Stadium on Saturday night and I expect points to come at a premium. Keep in mind, last year's meeting between these teams totalled just 43 points.

Illinois has already shown it can keep quality offenses in check this season. In fact, it held both Kansas and Nebraska scoreless when it mattered most, in the fourth quarter (and overtime last week at Nebraska). Penn State's offense poses a considerable challenge but I wouldn't be overly intimidated by last week's 56-point outburst as it came against one of the worst defenses in FBS in Kent State.

The Nittany Lions have played but one bad half of defensive football through three games, that coming against Bowling Green. Note that Penn State did right the ship at halftime in that game, holding the Falcons to just a field goal in the second half with that coming in the final minute of the fourth quarter.

Illinois got rolling offensively against Nebraska last Friday night but this is the same team that could only muster one offensive touchdown against a middle-of-the-road Kansas defense back in Week 2. I think goal number one will be moving the chains and effectively shortening proceedings as a sizable underdog in Happy Valley on Saturday. This isn't really a big play Illini offense, as evidenced by QB Luke Altmyer topping out at 242 passing yards in a game this season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between North Carolina and Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday.

We'll call for the Tar Heels defense to bounce back following last week's ridiculous home loss against James Madison (in which they allowed 70 points). Note that the 'under' is 15-7 in North Carolina's last 22 games following a home loss by 14 points or more. That includes a 9-4 mark when their next game came on the road, as is the case here. Duke has seen the 'under' go 17-7 in its last 24 games as a home favorite of seven points or less. The 'over' has cashed in each of the last two meetings in this series. That's notable as we haven't seen three straight 'over' results between these two rivals since the 1990's. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Temple at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Temple rose up and stunned Utah State last Saturday, scoring a whopping 45 points in the process. Keep in mind, this is an Owls team that had scored a grand total of 34 points in its first three games - all losses - including just 11 in a defeat against another Service Academy in Navy. Simply put, I don't expect Temple to find much offensive success in this game.

While the Owls got ripped by Navy's option-based attack earlier in the season, I do think that at least gives them a leg up as they prepare to face Army's triple-option on a short week.If nothing else, they won't be caught flat-footed in this matchup.

Army has enjoyed an offensive renaissance so far this season, scoring 103 points through its first three games, going a perfect 3-0 along the way. Hanging 37 points on Rice at West Point is one thing, doing so on the road on a short week is another. I think this game will be all about controlling the football, and the clock, and getting out of Philadelphia with its flawless record intact. Style points mean little to teams like the Black Knights.

Defensively, Army has been outstanding in the early going. Note that last week it didn't allow a score against Rice until the game was already well in hand, ahead 30-0 over midway through the third quarter. Prior to that, against Florida Atlantic, the Black Knights gave up just a single touchdown in a 24-7 victory, that coming in the final minute of the first half. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Tennessee and Oklahoma at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

Tennessee has been toppling totals all by itself so far this season. I do think the Volunteers will face a little more resistance as they head to Stillwater to face the Sooners on Saturday.

Remember back two weeks ago, the Vols were actually held to just a single offensive touchdown in the first half on the road against N.C. State. It was only after the Wolfpack came completely unglued with mistake after mistake that the Vols offense took off in a 51-10 victory. I don't expect Oklahoma to make the same type of mistakes here.

While the Sooners do have a potent offense, I think their choice will be clear in this matchup as they look to play keep-away and limit Tennessee's possessions. They simply can't afford to have their defense on the field for long stretches against a home run hitting Vols offense.

While we're not likely to see a true defensive slugfest, I do think the total will prove too high. Take the under (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Washington at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Last year's Apple Cup matchup fizzled with just 45 total points scored. I expect a much different story to unfold as these two rivals do battle as non-conference foes this time around.

Washington State is off to a 2-0 start and has been paced by its offense, scoring a whopping 107 points through two games. Moreso than in recent matchups, this is a favorable spot for the Cougars against a somewhat rebuilt Huskies defense. Washington State has shown that quick-strike ability already this season - last week the Cougars scored three touchdowns in a span of less than eight minutes in the second quarter. QB John Mateer didn't have the best game through the air against Texas Tech but more than made up for it by rushing for 197 yards and a score. This is a Cougars offense that can beat you in a lot of different ways and I think the country will be introduced in Saturday's contest.

Washington's offense hasn't really gotten rolling yet this season but it hasn't needed to having faced Weber State and Eastern Michigan. This is a prime breakout spot against a Cougars defense that has weaknesses to be exploited. Note that the Huskies did show flashes on offense last week - at one point they scored three touchdowns in just over nine minutes in the second quarter. While the receiving corps no longer has the likes of Rome Odunze to embarrass opposing defenses, this is still a deep group that will establish themselves over time. QB Will Rogers is already a proven commodity from his days at Mississippi State and is off to a strong start having thrown four touchdown passes without an interception. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between UNLV and Kansas at 7 pm et on Friday.

Kansas ran into a revenge-minded Illinois squad on the road last Saturday and paid the price in a much lower-scoring game than expected, 23-17 in favor of the Illini. The Jayhawks will return home to face another opponent seeking revenge on Friday. Remember, the Rebels and Jayhawks met in last December's Guaranteed Rate Bowl. That game went 49-36 in favor of Kansas. While I don't expect the Jayhawks to get tripped up again here, I do think the Rebels will be able to hang some points on them.

UNLV's aerial attack has fizzled a bit with Matthew Sluka taking over at quarterback for last year's standout Jordan Maiava (he transferred to USC). With that being said, you don't put up 72 points by fluke. The Rebels did just that last week, albeit against an FCS opponent in Utah Tech. Note that in Week 1 UNLV scored 27 points in an upset win over Houston. Sluka has certainly made the most of his overall poor numbers, throwing five touchdown passes through two games (on only 14 completions). Forget about Sluka's short-comings for a moment, the Rebels still have one of the most underrated wide receivers in college football in Ricky White and a dare-I-say dominant ground attack that features a ton of options.

As I mentioned, Kansas struggled to put points on the board in Saturday's loss to Illinois. This is still a loaded offense and I'm willing to bet against dual-threat QB Jalon Daniels turning in another stinker (he did manage to throw two touchdown passes against the Illini). There's experience all over the field for the Jayhawks on offense. While they're not likely to approach the 49 points they scored in the Bowl win over UNLV, getting into the 30's is probable. Look for the Rebels to take care of the rest. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona State and Texas State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This is a better matchup than most casual college football fans probably realize. Arizona State and Texas State are both off to 2-0 starts. For the Bobcats, this is a massive opportunity to show what their program is about on a national stage. Not only that but with a win here the runway is clear for a truly special season with a very manageable schedule the rest of the way.

I don't think Arizona State will be interested in getting involved in a shootout. Last Saturday, the Sun Devils scored a touchdown just under six minutes into the game but then scored just one additional offensive touchdown the rest of the way (their defense did return a fumble for a touchdown). Even in their season-opener against Wyoming, while they did score 48 points, only four of their six touchdowns were produced by their offense.

Texas State wants to play fast and has proven it can score but we've yet to see it do it against a capable opponent (the Bobcats scored 83 points in their first two games against FCS squad Lamar and UTSA). Noting that Arizona State has already scored three defensive touchdowns this season, Texas State will need to avoid being reckless on offense if it wants to stage the 'upset'.

We've seen this total rise from the opener. Most predictions I've seen indicate we're in for a track meet. I simply feel it's more likely we see the two offenses orchestrate long, clock-churning drives that may or may not result in touchdowns. It's a high-scoring game but perhaps not as high as some are expecting. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa State and Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off dominant victories in their respective season openers last week. In the case of Iowa, it was a real stunner as the Hawkeyes put up a whopping 40 points. That would have taken them about three games to accomplish last year. With that being said, I'm not anticipating a whole lot of offensive fireworks in the latest instalment in this storied rivalry.

Iowa State WR's Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins went off in last week's win over North Dakota, hauling in 13 catches for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns...and the Cyclones still scored only 21 points. This is going to be a methodical offense and one that doesn't have a ton of balance right now with RB Abu Sama not a true home run hitter out of the backfield. QB Rocco Becht is solid but he's better suited to being a game manager, especially against a defense as tough as Iowa's.

The Hawkeyes offense got rolling against Illinois State but let's not get too excited. It took them more than a half to find the end zone, recording their first touchdown of the game with just over 11 minutes remaining in the third quarter. They exploded from there but it had more to do with Illinois State not being able to keep its offense on the field than anything else.

While Iowa's defense grabs more headlines, Iowa State is terrific in that department as well. I expect the Cyclones to give Hawkeyes QB Cade McNamara fits all afternoon long on Saturday. Iowa's ground game went off against Illinois State but Iowa State has the athleticism on defense to keep everything in front of it in this matchup.

This game won't be short on entertainment but it might be on points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati at 12 noon et on Saturday.

When these two teams met almost a year ago to the day, they combined to score just 48 points in a Cincinnati road win. Both of the defenses that played in that game were significantly stronger than the ones we'll see in this rematch, at least in my opinion. Meanwhile, both offenses are upgraded, as evidenced by last week's strong Week 1 showings. I'm anticipating a potential track meet in Cincinnati on Saturday.

Pitt rolled to a 55-24 win over Kent State last Saturday. While the Panthers were boosted by a punt return touchdown, hanging 55 points on an FBS opponent is no joke. QB Eli Holstein looked comfortable running the offense while RB Desmond Reid appeared to take the reins out of the backfield with a 145-yard performance (on just 14 carries). I think the Panthers have plenty of runway this week against a Bearcats defense that is rebuilding in a sense. Cincinnati may get Dontay Corleone back on the field but it's tough to envision him not being on a snap count after dealing with blood clots.

Cincinnati's offense figures to take a leap forward in Scott Satterfield's second year at the helm. The Bearcats wasted no time getting rolling against Towson last week, scoring three offensive touchdowns in a nine-minute stretch in the first quarter. New starting QB Brendan Sorsby has no shortage of weapons at his disposal. Perhaps the biggest news out of Week 1 was the emergence of RB Evan Pryor. He turned four carries into 105 yards and a touchdown in the win. The Bearcats are loaded at the running back position and I believe the Panthers are going to have a difficult time keeping them in front of them all afternoon on Saturday.

Last year's shootout fizzled between these teams. I don't think this year's contest will disappoint, however. We're working with a high total but I believe it could (and should) be even higher. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between BYU and SMU at 7 pm et on Friday.

The SMU offense didn't come out of the gates on fire this season, although perhaps its struggles in its narrow season-opening win can be forgiven as Nevada has looked better than expected through two games. We saw the Mustangs offense get loose against Houston Baptist last Saturday and while BYU will offer a tougher test, I expect SMU to be up for the challenge.

Even if it was against an FCS opponent, the fact that SMU scored three offensive touchdowns in an eight-minute stretch in the first quarter and then three more in a 21-minute stretch from the third to the fourth quarter - when the game was already well in hand - was impressive to say the least. With all of the returning talent, this has the potential to be one of the country's best offenses as SMU joins the ACC this season.

BYU QB Jake Retzlaff impressed in his debut as the starter, after winning the job over experienced signal-caller Gerry Bohanon in August. I liked the way the Cougars kept pouring it on, much like SMU even against an FCS opponent in Southern Illinois. While Retzlaff stole the headlines with a 348-yard, three-touchdown passing day, the backfield duo of L.J. Martin and Hinckley Ropati have the potential to be special as well. Add in shoe-in WR1 in Chase Roberts (he hauled in seven catches for 108 yards and also ran the ball twice in the win over SIU) and the Cougars offense appears to be in good shape.

SMU's defense wasn't really tested last week but did allow what should be a pedestrian Nevada offense to score touchdowns in each of the first three quarters in its season-opener. Expect plenty of points on the board on Friday night. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and USC at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

This game is begging for 'over' money with the total dropping a couple of points. Both of these teams were built for shootouts last year and on a fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, most will be anticipating more of the same in Sunday's season-opener. I'm not so easily convinced.

LSU loses a slew of offensive weapons from last year's team. The cupboard is by no means bare but you don't get better with the likes of QB Jayden Daniels and WR's Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas moving on to the NFL. That's not to mention the fact that offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock left for Notre Dame. As we saw in the ReliaQuest Bowl, the Tigers offense can still thrive with QB Garrett Nussmeier under center. I do think there could be some growing pains early on, however, and the Tigers will be facing what can only be an improved USC defense after making a splash in the transfer portal.

The Trojans are also ushering in a new era at quarterback with Caleb Williams now a Chicago Bear. Miller Moss has been anointed the starter in Week 1 but it likely won't be long until he's replaced by UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. There are more questions than answers on this USC offense with RB MarShawn Lloyd onto the NFL and unproven talent at the wide receiver position.

There's no question LSU is focuses on improving its defense following a disastrous 2023 campaign. With an almost entirely new defensive coaching staff and just enough difference-makers returning to the field, there's only one way to go and that's up. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami University and Northwestern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Miami is known for its slow starts offensively - at least in recent years. The Redhawks have scored 14 points or less in their season-opener in three straight seasons and they draw another tough defensive opponent in Northwestern on the shores of Lake Michigan this year.

Yes, Miami is brimming with potential offensively. QB Brett Gabbert is back to lead the offense for what seems like a 10th straight year (he's back for his sixth and final season). Last year, Gabbert missed the stretch run as the Redhawks ended up winning another MAC Championship. The offense does have to replace some key parts and Gabbert's number one job will be taking care of the football against a Wildcats defense that was among the nation's most opportunistic last year.

Northwestern is hoping to take a step forward offensively this season but I'm expecting more of the same. The Wildcats haven't named a starting quarterback for Week 1 and I don't need to tell you that's not a good thing. Whoever starts under center will undoubtedly be looking to manage the game and limit mistakes rather than unlock an explosive offensive attack. Keep in mind, Miami returns a ton of experience and talent defensively - a big reason why this pointspread is as short as it is.

Last year, the Redhawks opened the campaign with a 38-3 beatdown in a Friday night game in Miami (Florida). The defense did what it could in that game but the offense simply couldn't stay on the field, gaining just 215 total yards. This figures to be a slightly more forgiving matchup. I expect both offenses to move the football at times and both should enter with a similar mindset of looking to effectively shorten proceedings in an effort to secure a victory - for Miami out of respect for the Northwestern defense and for Northwestern simply due to its lack of explosive playmakers on offense. Take the under (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Wisconsin at 9 pm et on Friday.

This total has been set as if the Badgers are going to explode offensively against the Broncos. I'm not so easily convinced.

Both of these offenses are ushering in new starting quarterbacks. For Western Michigan it's Hayden Wolff transferring in from Old Dominion where he had mixed results in a couple of seasons. It's a similar story as Wisconsin welcomes former Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke. Both have been turnover-prone at times and I'm not convinced either will have the full offensive playbook at their disposal here in Week 1.

There's reason to believe Wisconsin will return to its roots in a sense this season and that means focusing on pounding the football, controlling clock and ultimately stacking wins. RB Chaz Mellusi is back after a devastating injury suffered early last season. The Badgers offensive line can blast away as usual. I do think Western Michigan is better-positioned to slow opposing ground games this season, however. It all starts with 310-point NT Mason Nelson clogging up the middle. This Broncos defense is loaded with sure tacklers and I think they can limit the Badgers home run ability on the ground.

On the flip side, Western Michigan brings back two top rushers from last season and it's gameplan as a sizable underdog on Friday should be simple, run the football, take care of the football and effectively shorten proceedings in hopes of staying within arm's reach.

The Broncos will need to be cautious against what I project to be an improved Badgers defense that is loaded from the back in with standouts in the secondary, S Hunter Wohler and CB Ricardo Hallman leading the way. Up front the Badgers have a considerable size advantage and figure to swallow up Western Michigan's runners at every opportunity. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Florida State and Georgia Tech at 12 noon et on Saturday.

An interesting conference clash to open the 2024 college football season as Florida State and Georgia Tech do battle in Dublin on Saturday. For Florida State this will mark the first of two straight nationally-televised ACC battles as it will return to American soil to face Boston College next week.

There's plenty of change to consider when it comes to the Seminoles, as is often the case with so many players moving on to greener pastures, whether it be the NFL or otherwise. Do-it-all QB Jordan Travis won't be easy to replace. D.J. Uiagaleilei takes over, joining his third different college program after finally finding his footing at Oregon State. While he does figure to be a good fit in this offense, I'm not convinced he'll be on the same page as all of his explosive weapons right out of the gate - nor will he need to be. This is a game where the Seminoles can lean heavily on their loaded backfield to shoulder much of the offensive load, and let their elite defense take care of the rest.

Speaking of that defense, the 'Noles remain loaded in that department. It's their secondary in particular that I'm most impressed by, comfortable with anointing that group as a 'no-fly zone' of sorts. Given the Yellow Jackets difficulty taking care of the football last season with turnover-prone QB Haynes King, I question whether Georgia Tech will really be looking to test that Hokies pass defense early and often on Saturday.

There is a path for the Yellow Jackets to stay competitive in this football game, but I think it involves churning out long, clock-eating drives in an attempt to effectively shorten proceedings. The reasonably short pointspread leads me to believe this one could turn out to be a little uglier than expected. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Army and Navy at 3 pm et on Saturday.

The long 'under' streak in this storied rivalry came to an end in 2021 and last year's game found its way 'over' the total as well thanks to overtime (only 20 points were scored in regulation time). While we're dealing with an incredibly low posted total for the 2023 edition, I'm still willing to take a flyer on the 'under'. Between these two teams during the regular season we saw six shutouts pitched one way or another. Both teams actually opened up their offenses a little more this year, electing to sling it around the field a little bit rather than strictly operating option-based attacks. With that being said, Army comes into this game on a three-game winning streak and it essentially took passing out of its vocabulary in those three contests, connecting on just 8-of-17 throws for 119 yards. Last time out against Coastal Carolina, the Black Knights attempted just two passes (and didn't have a completion). This has all the makings of a chess match. Navy showed incredible patience over the course of the season, relying on its knack for turning over its opponents while methodically wearing down the opposition on offense. Even though the Midshipmen did throw it a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing, they still topped out at 163 passing yards and that came against an FCS opponent in Wagner. Take the under (8*).

SEC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This matchup produced only 46 total points last season in a game that had a closing total of 63 points. So that potential shootout fizzled but I don't believe this one will. Ole Miss has been involved in its share of high-scoring affairs this season but its most recent contest reached only 38 points in a blowout win over Louisiana-Monroe. In general, most of the Rebels games have either involved them lighting it up or the opposition doing so. There's really been no in-between. Here, Ole Miss should break off its share of big plays on the ground against a Mississippi State defense that has been matador-like against the run when it's mattered most - for example it is just one game removed from getting ripped for 246 yards on 45 rush attempts against Texas A&M. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been all that electric this season. It's largely been a disappointment, in fact. However, Mississippi State has also run up against a pretty brutal schedule since Week 4, facing the gauntlet of Alabama at home, Arkansas and Auburn on the road, Kentucky at home and Texas A&M on the road with a couple of gimme non-conference matchups mixed in (the Bulldogs scored 41 points in wins over Western Michigan and Southern Miss). Note that the 'over' is 11-3 in Mississippi State's last 14 lined home contests, leading to an average total of 59.4 points. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and Arizona at 2:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games last week but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up in Tucson on Saturday. Utah is a better defensive team than it has shown in recent weeks but keep in mind it has run into USC, Oregon and Washington - three of the top offensive teams not just in the Pac-12 but in the country - in the last four games. Here, it draws a more manageable matchup in Arizona. The Wildcats have been rolling offensively but aren't likely to overwhelm the Utes talented defense. On the flip side, Utah has yet to complete 20 or more passes in a game this season, clearly missing QB Cam Rising. The Utes figure to lean on their ground attack again this week, although they'll be facing a Wildcats defense that has been stout against the run, holding opponents to just 3.2 yards per rush on the campaign. Take the under (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Northwestern and Wisconsin at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While Iowa is getting all the attention for its extremely low-scoring games in the Big Ten this season, Wisconsin isn't far behind - or shouldn't be moving forward anyway. The Badgers have scored 14 points or less in three of their last four games as they deal with a cluster of key injuries on the offensive side of the football. Their defense has been less impacted and checks in having held eight of nine opponents to 24 points or less this season. Northwestern has shown flashes on offense but has stagnated as usual for the most part. The Wildcats are coming off a 10-7 loss to Iowa last week. In four road games this season Northwestern has produced 7, 14, 9 and 7 points. Wisconsin has scored 35 and 42 points in the last two meetings in this series but I don't expect it to come close to that level of production on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Boston College and Syracuse at 7:30 pm et on Friday.

I think everyone wants to believe in this Syracuse offense but it's just not there this season. The Orange have been held to 34 points in their last four games combined. That's no fluke. They're quite simply playing awful football right now. I do have faith in the Syracuse defense, led by its back-end, here at home, however. The Orange have allowed 38+ points in three straight games. This is a matchup they can handle though. Boston College mustered only 21 points in last week's win over lowly Connecticut. The Eagles have found their ground game and they're willing to hang their hat on it right now having rushed for 200+ yards in four straight games and 300+ in two of those contests. Defensively, the Eagles have incredibly held all but one of their eight opponents to 18 pass completions or fewer. Take the under (8*).

Big 12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between TCU and Texas Tech at 7 pm et on Thursday.

We're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in last year's matchup between these two teams. After all, that game reached 'only' 58 total points and both teams are coming off dismal offensive showings in their most recent game. I do think we'll see plenty of points on the board on Thursday, however, as this game has shootout potential. Few opponents have bombed away on the TCU defense this season. But we know it's possible as Colorado ripped the Horned Frogs for 38-of-47 passing for over 500 yards back in Week 1. While it has been somewhat game-script dependent, Texas Tech is coming off a pair of games in which it aired it out 49 and 37 times. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders ground attack has churned out 153 or more rushing yards in seven straight games. TCU won't shy away from slinging it all over the field either, noting that it has completed at least 21 passes in all eight games so far this season with three 300+ passing yard games. The Horned Frogs have racked up over 100 rushing yards in all eight games this season. Neither team has had a tendency to hold onto the football for long stretches with both averaging right around 27 minutes per game in terms of time of possession. I think that quick-strike potential will be there all night long in Lubbock. Take the over (10*).

Pac-12 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon and Utah at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring 'over' results last week - in the last two weeks, in fact. I expect a reversal of course here on Saturday as the Ducks travel to face the Utes. Oregon has looked downright unstoppable at times this season but Washington State actually managed to lay out a pretty good blueprint for slowing the Ducks high-powered offense for the better part of the first half last week. I expect the Utes, who own one of the best defenses in the nation, to turn in a strong performance here at home, where they've allowed just 39 points in four games this season. Note that last year the Utes travelled to Autzen Stadium and limited the Ducks to just 20 points in a three-point defeat. On the flip side, the Ducks defense doesn't get nearly the credit or attention it deserves, largely due to the team's electric offense. Favored on the road, there's nothing for Oregon's defense to fear with the Utes still dealing with inconsistent play at the quarterback position. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Sam Houston State at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

I think UTEP 'under' bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after they reeled off three consecutive 'under' results. Tonight's opponent, winless Sam Houston State, has found a little something offensively in recent games with QB Keegan Shoemaker showing signs of progress, throwing for six touchdowns and just two interceptions while running for 124 yards over the last three games. The Bearkats haven't stuck with the run at all this season but figure to feast on a UTEP defense that has hemorrhaged 5.1 yards per rush this season if they so choose. Sam Houston State's defense hasn't lived up to expectations this season, part of that has been due to simply being on the field way too much thanks to an inefficient offense. Miners RB Deion Hankins has gotten better as the season has gone on, rushing for 265 yards over the last three games and I expect him to be the focal point of the offense here as well. While run plays are generally an 'under' bettors best friend, I think there's a good chance UTEP runs all over the Sam Houston State defense on Wednesday. Sitting at 0-7 on the campaign, the Bearkats certainly haven't learned how to 'take the air out of the football' playing with a lead at this level (it's their first year in FBS) and I feel that lends itself to a back-and-forth affair that creeps 'over' the low posted total on Wednesday. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Western Kentucky and Louisiana Tech at 8 pm et on Thursday.

Last week's potential shootout involving Western Kentucky fizzled as Middle Tennessee State couldn't get anything going offensively in what turned out to be a lopsided affair. Here, I do expect that shootout to develop as the Hilltoppers head out on the road to face Louisiana Tech in Ruston on Thursday. While the Bulldogs allowed just 10 points in last week's victory, that came against one of the weakest offenses in the country in UTEP. They'll be facing a much different animal this week as Western Kentucky has displayed a sky-high scoring ceiling this season, putting up 41, 52, 10 (against Ohio State), 24 and 31 points. Note that Louisiana Tech allowed three touchdowns over a 14-minute stretch against a lukewarm Nebraska offense just two weeks ago. The Bulldogs also gave up 40 points against North Texas and 38 against SMU earlier this season. The question is whether Louisiana Tech can ramp up its own offense to keep pace. It remains up in the air whether QB Hank Bachmeier can return from injury for Louisiana Tech this week. Even if he can't go, I think Jack Turner can get the offense going in his third consecutive start. We saw positive flashes in that aforementioned game against Nebraska as he threw for 292 yards and a score while also gaining positive yardage on the ground. The Bulldogs do have gamebreakers around Turner in RB Tyre Shelton (104 rush yards on 16 carries last week) and Ole Miss transfer WR Smoke Harris. (returned a punt for a touchdown last week). Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Connecticut at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Everyone is waiting for Utah State to repeat its 78-point explosion earlier this season against Idaho State but it's just not going to happen. The Aggies did put up 38 points (in a losing effort) on the road against James Madison last week but that was thanks in large part to five Dukes turnovers. I expect Connecticut to take care of the football at the very least on Saturday (turnovers aren't really something we can accurately predict) as it looks to salvage something from this three-game homestand. The Huskies are 0-4 to start the season, topping out at 17 points in a game. While Utah State has given up its share of points this season, this is no gimme matchup for a sputtering UConn offense. Remember, the Aggies did hold Iowa to 24 points on fewer than 300 total yards of offense in its season-opener on the road, so they're capable of rising to the occasion defensively here. The Huskies gave up 31 points in last year's matchup with Utah State but that was on the road against a more talented Aggies offense than the one they'll face on Saturday. Utah State's top two contributors on that day were RB Calvin Tyler Jr. and WR Brian Cobbs. Both have since moved on and were late cuts at NFL training camps in August. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Western Kentucky enters this game as a considerable favorite but I don't have a lot of confidence in the Hilltoppers 'taking the air out of the football' at any point in this game. WKU ranks 104th in the country in time of possession. The Hilltoppers play fast but are coming off a poor offensive showing in last week's 27-24 loss at Troy. I don't expect them to have any trouble bouncing back in that department here at home, where they've put up a whopping 93 points in two games this season. The one thing Middle Tennessee State does have going for it here is the 'revenge' factor as it has lost four straight meetings in this series. The Blue Raiders have a quarterback worthy of our support in Nicholas Vattiato. He's proven more than capable of moving the football through the air and on the ground. We've yet to see them hit full stride this season but I do think the Blue Raiders have the right personnel around Vattiato to have a breakout performance here. Watch for WR's D.J. Chisolm and Elijah Metcalf along with RB Frank Peasant. All three are potential gamebreakers. Last year's matchup between these two teams totalled 52 points. That was a sloppy contest that featured five turnovers between the two teams. I like the fact that both teams are coming off a loss this time around as I believe that leads to aggressive play-calling here. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between New Mexico State and Hawaii at 11:59 pm et on Saturday.

Both of these teams enter this game riding two-game 'under' streaks. I look for a different story to unfold as they match up on Saturday. New Mexico State certainly isn't known for its offense but it has come around with dual-threat QB Diego Pavia running the show. The Rainbow Warriors defense entered the season with some optimism thanks to plenty of returning talent. A season-ending injury to LB Logan Taylor set them back after getting off to a rough start. The good news for Hawaii is that it does have a pulse on offense this year. You wouldn't know if based on their lukewarm performance on the road against Oregon last Saturday but this group is capable of balling out, especially against a beatable defense like the Aggies. Both teams have shown sky-high ceilings in terms of offensive production in this matchup with New Mexico State putting up 45 points despite possessing the football for just over 27 minutes in last year's meeting. Hawaii is just one year removed from hanging 48 points on the Aggies and has scored 26 points or more in five straight meetings in this series. Take the over (8*).

Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oregon State and Washington State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

Beavers QB D.J. Uiagalelei has looked like the right fit since transferring from Clemson, where he never lived up to sky-high expectations. With that said, he's been able to ease into proceedings with Oregon State by facing San Jose State, UC Davis and San Diego State in the first three games with the latter two contests coming at home. I do think the Beavers are in for a challenge on Saturday as they travel to Pullman to take on fellow undefeated Washington State. While the Cougars are coming off a 64-point explosion last Saturday, expectations should be tempered noting that came against an FCS opponent in Northern Colorado. This will be their toughest test to date - certainly from a defensive standpoint, with Oregon State having allowed a grand total of 33 points through three games. Back to Uiagalelei for a moment, he is coming off a two-interception game against San Diego State and I do expect the Beavers to scale things back a little here against an opportunistic Washington State defense. The Cougars boast one of the best pass rushes in the country led by ends Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking from the Beavers on Saturday as they look to get the football out of Uiagalelei's hands quickly and into the hands of their playmakers. The story isn't all that different for the Cougars. QB Cam Ward is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in my opinion. Yet, in a similar matchup two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin he completed just 20-of-32 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns - an efficient if not explosive performance. Ward was sacked seven times in the Cougars first two games against FBS foes this season so like the Beavers, I think we'll see the Cougars lean heavily on their short passing attack (and ground game) in an attempt to control proceedings at home on Saturday. This was an extremely high-scoring series from 2013 to 2020 but since then we've seen each of the last two matchups between these two teams stay 'under' the total, including last year's 24-10 Oregon State victory in Corvallis. Take the under (10*).

Big Ten Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Wisconsin and Purdue at 7 pm et on Friday.

Wisconsin entered this season with a new look on offense, aiming to ratchet up the pace and sling the football around the field a lot more than we're accustomed to seeing. So far, it's been a mixed bag. The Badgers opened the season with a dominant performance against Buffalo, rolling to a 38-17 victory. From there they travelled to face Washington State and dropped a 31-22 decision. Last week they forced six turnovers in a 35-14 home win over Georgia Southern. Wisconsin is in for a tough test on Friday as it faces a Purdue squad that will be in a foul mood following a 35-20 home loss to Syracuse last Saturday. Don't sleep on the Boilermakers defense. They were hung out to dry by the offense last week as Purdue turned the football over four times in that setback against the Orange. Keep in mind, the Boilers are just one game removed from holding Virginia Tech to 17 points on fewer than 300 total yards in Blacksburg. I do think we see a rather conservative offensive gameplan from Purdue here after last week's turnover-happy performance. The Boilers know they can ill afford to give a good Wisconsin offense any short fields to work with on Friday. For the most part, Purdue hasn't shown much big play potential on offense in the early going this season. I would anticipate plenty of dinking and dunking down the field on Friday, noting that they did control the time of possession in last year's matchup with the Badgers, holding onto the football for 32+ minutes, albeit in a 35-24 defeat. Enough about Purdue, Wisconsin couldn't have been pleased with its defensive performance against Georgia Southern last week, allowing the Eagles to complete 33-of-52 passes for 383 yards. Were it not for all of the GSU turnovers, the end result might have been much different. In the Badgers toughest test so far this season they did hold an ascending Washington State offense to 'only' 31 points in enemy territory. In that contest, there was a stretch where the Badgers didn't allow an offensive touchdown for just shy of 39 minutes from early in the second quarter until the fourth quarter. All told, Wisconsin has given up seven offensive touchdowns in 12 quarters of action this season. Offensively, the Badgers would like to shift to a more pass-happy attack but so far they've topped out at 278 passing yards through three games. The Badgers ground attack is as good as any in the nation but I do think the Boilers can limit the big home run plays here. I'm very high on Purdue's defense in the second and third level in particular. Take the under (10*).

Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Georgia State and Coastal Carolina at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This total has been climbing since opening, and for good reason. Coastal Carolina cruised to a 41-24 victory in this matchup last year but I'm anticipating a more competitive affair this time around and that should lend itself to a high-scoring contest. Georgia State actually brought in former Coastal Carolina defensive coordinator Chad Staggs to turn things around on that side of the football. The jury is still out as to whether that will be the case, however. The Panthers have performed well against a pair of bad offenses in Connecticut and Charlotte over the last two games but keep in mind, they gave up 35 points including four touchdowns over a 22-minute stretch against FCS squad Rhode Island in their season-opener. This is a Georgia State defense that has lost a ton of key parts from last year's squad - keeping in mind, last year's defense wasn't very good to begin with. It's a similar story with Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers lost two of their best defenders from a year ago in Jerrod Clark and Josaiah Stewart and again, that was a defense that wasn't very good. Offensively, both teams are loaded and led by experienced quarterbacks in Darren Grainger and Grayson McCall. Not household names by any means but two of the better leaders in the country. While many teams are already dealing with injuries to key players at the skill positions on offense, that's not the case with the Panthers and Chanticleers as they both enter with clean injury reports. In last year's meeting between these teams, Coastal Carolina held onto the football for more than 40 minutes. Yet that contest still produced 65 total points. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Hawaii and Oregon at 8 pm et on Saturday.

This matchup has all the makings of a shootout, even if it does turn out to be a lopsided affair. Hawaii got its feet under it in a 31-20 win over FCS squad Albany last week - its first victory in three tries this season. There's a lot to like about the Hawaii offense. QB Brayden Schager is purely a pocket-passer - a little different than we're used to seeing from the Rainbow Warriors in recent years. Despite being sacked a ridiculous 14 times through three games, he's still managed to throw for nearly 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns which says a lot about the explosiveness of this aerial attack. With WR Steven McBride emerging as a touchdown machine and Pofele Ashlock a big play waiting to happen, Oregon can't afford to sleepwalk through this game. On the flip side, we know what the Ducks are capable of offensively. They're just one game removed from an 81-point outburst, even if it did come against an FCS opponent in Portland State. Last week, Oregon pulled out a hard-fought overtime win at Texas Tech. Nothing came easy for it in that contest but I expect the Ducks to get loose again offensively here. Note that Hawaii lost the heart-and-soul of its defense, captain Logan Taylor to a season-ending knee injury last week. He's a tackling machine and his absence will be felt right away against Oregon. There was a 32-minute stretch in Oregon's season-opener in which it scored nine, yes nine touchdowns. The Ducks didn't have to keep their foot on the gas for four quarters in that rout but still tacked on two more touchdown's the game's final 12 minutes. That tells you all you need to know about this year's Oregon team. I believe this total will prove too low. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Rutgers at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

I expect both of these teams to employ a 'hide the quarterback' style of offense on Saturday afternoon in Piscataway. Virginia Tech QB Grant Wells was fine in a favorable Week 1 matchup against a rebuilding Old Dominion defense but he suffered considerable regression last Saturday against Purdue and was ultimately lifted from the game due to an ankle injury (he's questionable to play this week). Backup Kyron Drones entered and completed only 2-of-7 passes. Regardless who is under center against Rutgers on Saturday, this is an extremely difficult draw and one where I fully expect the Hokies to lean toward the run in an effort to effectively shorten this game. The good news for the Hokies is that their defense is fine. Last week against Purdue, Virginia Tech allowed two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then held the Boilermakers out of the end zone until nearly midway through the fourth quarter. This is a manageable matchup against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is off to a perfect 2-0 start, scoring 60 points in the process. With that said, QB Gavin Wimsatt has completed just 27-of-50 passes, throwing for 163 and 198 yards in the first two contests. A lot of that has had to do with game script with the Scarlet Knights controlling proceedings. Here, I do think we see a more competitive affair and like the Hokies, the Scarlet Knights have a vested interest in running the football with Kyle Monangai (he's coming off a 165-yard outburst against Temple) and leaning heavily on their tremendous defense. While Rutgers did score 36 points last week, after reaching the end zone with less than four minutes remaining in the first quarter it didn't record another touchdown until over three minutes into the fourth quarter. Temple came unglued late, allowing two more touchdowns in the game's final six minutes. I do expect Virginia Tech to show a lot more poise and composure than the Owls. With that said, Rutgers has played eight quarters of football so far this season, pitching shutouts in six of those. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Army and UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair at the Alomodome on Friday. It's not often that both teams have a vested interest in eating clock and effectively shortening proceedings but I believe that will be the case here. For Army, it will be looking for revenge after a whild 41-38 loss against the Roadrunners in West Point last year. The Black Knights know the straightest path to victory in this game is by churning out long, clock-consuming drives that serve to keep the dangerous UTSA offense off the field. While they're certainly capable of doing that, they're up against a fierce Roadrunners defense that returns plenty of talent and experience and already appears to be in midseason form. I'm anticipating a rather conservative gameplan from Army in the role of considerable road underdog here. On the flip side, UTSA is hoping to have the services of do-it-all QB Frank Harris after he suffered a toe injury in last week's win over rival Texas State. Even if Harris can start this game, it's uncertain whether he'll be at 100% or how the injury will effect his performance. It does seem that something hasn't been quite right with Harris through the first two games this season and compounding matters is the fact that the Roadrunners offensive line has been struggling in pass protection. UTSA has the type of offense that can hold onto the football for long stretches with an effective ground game led by RB Kevorian Barnes. Note, however, that the big plays haven't necessarily been there so far this season. Last week against Texas State, UTSA's longest run was a 23-yard scamper from Barnes while its longest pass completion went for 30 yards - its only completion over 30 yards in the contest. Army does boast a capable defense that is built to prevent big plays thanks to a terrific second level with particular strength in the secondary. Last year's matchup between these two teams was a wild, high-scoring shootout but I expect nothing of the sort in this rematch. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Iowa and Iowa State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

While it's certainly not Army-Navy, we have seen a trend of low-scoring contests emerge in this rivalry series between Iowa and Iowa State. The 'under' has cashed in four straight meetings going back to 2018 with only one of those contests topping 35 total points. Last year, Iowa State pulled out a 10-7 victory in enemy territory and the road team has now won eight of the last 10 matchups. I expect a similarly low-scoring contest this year with both offenses in a state of transition early in the campaign. Iowa got the Cade McNamara era off to a red hot start last week, scoring two touchdowns in the game's first eight minutes against Utah State. From there, the Hawkeyes didn't reach the end zone again until nearly five minutes into the fourth quarter. On the flip side, the Iowa defense was a rock as usual, holding Utah State out of the end zone until the game was all but decided (ahead 24-7 at the time) in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. With QB Hunter Dekkers sidelined due to a gambling probe, it's up to the duo of J.J. Kohl and Rocco Becht to lead teh Cyclones offense. Last week against FCS opponent Northern Iowa it was Becht who got the start and led the team to a 30-point outburst. Led the team might be a bit of a stretch. Iowa State got the ball rolling with a pick-six less than two minutes into the contest and the offense went on to put together three touchdown drives, as it should against an FCS foe. Iowa State is hoping that Jayden Higgins can take over from Xavier Hutchinson as WR1 but he had just one catch for 15 yards against the Panthers. Lost in the 30-point performance was the fact that the Iowa State was terrific, holding UNI out of the end zone until nearly four minutes into the fourth quarter. The Cyclones essentially gave up just one big play in the entire game, that coming on a 36-yard pass completion on that lone Panthers touchdown drive. They racked up five sacks and two interceptions in the victory. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between LSU and Florida State at 7:30 pm et on Sunday.

We saw a relatively low-scoring matchup between these same two teams last Labor Day weekend as Florida State pulled out a 24-23 victory. Keep in mind, there was a 20-minute stretch in the third and fourth quarters where the two teams combined to score a whopping five touchdowns. The explosiveness is there with these two offenses. Of course, the defenses are loaded as well. I simply feel that the talent on defense can effectively work to fuel each team's offense in this particular matchup. We're likely to see plenty of 'chaos' plays that have the potential to flip the field (and lead to quick-score potential from the two offenses). Both teams boast ground attacks led by relative unknowns from a year ago but guys that essentially took over the reins down the stretch last season and should come out blasting here in Week 1. I'm referring to the duo of Josh Williams and Noah Cain for the Tigers and Trey Benson for the Seminoles. The receiving corps' both lose considerable talent but the cupboards are still well-stocked. Malik Nabers of LSU and Johnny Wilson of Florida State are two players that have the potential to go off in this matchup. That's not to mention the fact that both teams have tight ends that could potentially be playing on Sundays in the next couple of years. I expect both offenses to play fast in this one, not wanting to let the opposing defenses settle in and the experienced quarterbacks are certainly in place for that in Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis. Take the over (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington State and Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday.

I believe this rematch of last year's 38-7 Washington State rout has shootout potential. The Cougars are one of the more underrated teams in the country entering the 2023 campaign in my opinion. And it all starts with their offense, led by the talented trio of QB Cameron Ward, RB Nakia Watson and WR Lincoln Victor. The Rams didn't have any answers for the Cougars offense in last year's matchup as Washington State raced ahead 28-0 before halftime. A big part of that blowout result was the ineptness of the Colorado State offensive line. Almost in direct response to the brutal showing against Wazzu (the Rams gave up seven sacks in that game), Colorado State re-tooled its offensive line and now boasts an entirely different looking group. I don't expect a Jay Norvell-coached team to stay down for long offensively. The Rams do have some nice pieces in place on offense, including QB Clay Millen who took his lumps as a freshman last year but should be better for it in 2023. I like the way this matchup sets up for the Rams ground attack in particular as they've made improvements in that department as well and can take advantage of a smallish Cougars defensive interior. Noting that the Rams turned the football over twice, managed just 14 first downs and 37 rush yards on 31 attempts, it's incredible that they even managed to score a touchdown in last year's meeting. Expect them to at the very least come up with a response here, while the Cougars should be able to once again name their score against a very beatable Rams defense. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Utah State and Iowa at 12 noon et on Saturday.

We know what we're going to get with Iowa. In comes Michigan transfer Cade McNamara at quarterback but he's dealing with a leg injury and questionable to play on Saturday. Even if he does, I still expect to see a dialed-back Hawkeyes offense as they settle in to their preferred style of controlling the football (and the clock) in a matchup they should win going away against Utah State. The Aggies will turn to familiar face Cooper Legas under center. He had an up-and-down 2022 campaign, ultimately throwing just 11 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions. It seems that the more they let him cut it loose, the more mistakes he makes and in this difficult opening week matchup against what is expected to be an elite Iowa defense once again, I don't anticipate the Aggies putting too much on Legas' shoulders. Instead, we can anticipate Utah State running the football and doing all it can to win the battle of field position with a not-so-secret weapon at punter in super senior Stephen Kotsanlee. Note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 in Iowa's September home games over the last two seasons with those contests totalling an average of just 28.2 points. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and Miami at 7 pm et on Friday.

This should be an intriguing battle between two talented and experienced defenses in Week 1. The Redhawks had one of the lowest offensive ceilings of all Bowl-eligible teams last season - of course that had a lot to do with losing QB Brett Gabbert early in the campaign. While Gabbert is back healthy to start the 2023 season, he doesn't have the same receiver room to work with. That's not to mention the fact the Redhawks offensive line remains a patchwork unit. Gabbert's decision-making will be the biggest factor here as the opposing Hurricanes defense figure to take advantage of any missteps. The other Miami's offense remains a work-in-progress as well. Last year we saw the Hurricanes explode for 70 points in their season-opener against Bethune Cookman but that wasn't a sign of things to come as the offense sputtered for much of the campaign. They'll start this season with a question mark as well with QB Tyler Van Dyke nursing a thumb injury. While he's likely to play, I don't expect this offense to operate all that fast or efficiently against an underrated Redhawks defense that boasts All-MAC caliber talent at all three levels. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between N.C. State and Connecticut at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

This total has dropped considerably since opening and it's the right move in my opinion. N.C. State is ushering in a new era offensively with QB Brennan Armstrong coming over from Virginia. Armstrong had a tremendous 2021 campaign before fizzling with the Cavaliers last year. The thinking here is that reuniting Armstrong with offensive coordinator Robert Anae will work wonders. Perhaps that will be the case, but I believe this is a sneaky-tough opening week matchup against a Connecticut defense that made positive strides last season and brings back plenty of talent from that unit. Keep in mind, the Huskies were throttled 41-10 in this matchup last year (in Raleigh). Wolfpack QB Devin Leary went off in that game, completing 32-of-44 passes for 320 yards and four touchdowns. That includes a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play from scrimmage that put the Huskies being the eight-ball early and ultimately took them away from their gameplan entirely. I don't believe UConn's plan of attack will change all that much this year, even with QB Joe Fagnano entering the fold after a productive career with Maine. Unfortunately for Fagnano, he doesn't have a loaded receiver room to work with. In the opener, he'll be facing a Wolfpack defense that recorded a whopping 19 interceptions last season and returns the outstanding 1-2 punch of Shyheim Battle and Aidan White in the secondary. With that said, the Huskies will want to lean heavily on their outstanding running back duo of Victor Rosa and Devontae Houston. While I do think UConn can make enough headway with its ground attack to keep the chains (and the clock) moving at times in this game, I'm not convinced we're going to see them break many big runs against a Wolfpack defense that despite losing a number of key parts, is still in excellent shape at linebacker and in the secondary. Note that in last year's meeting, the Huskies didn't score until the final play of the first half (field goal) and didn't reach the end zone until there were less than three minutes remaining in the game (and the final result was already decided with N.C. State leading 41-3). Take the under (8*).

Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Vanderbilt at 7:30 pm et on Saturday.

This matchup was no contest last year as Vanderbilt exploded in the third quarter on its way to a 63-10 rout in Hawaii. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair this year. Given the Rainbow Warriors are guided by head coach and former standout quarterback Timmy Chang, the expectation would be that the Hawaii offense will be high-octane. I simply feel there are too many question marks on that side of the football, including at quarterback and wide receiver to heap on high expectations out of the gate. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against an SEC defense on the rise and I think the Rainbow Warriors main goal will be to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately keep their defense off the field as much as possible. Speaking of that defense, it was awful last season. I expect this to be a bounce-back year in that department, however, as Hawaii bolstered its secondary by bringing over cornerback Cam Stone from Wyoming and safety Peter Manuma is a budding star after making a splash in his freshman year. The needle is certainly pointing up for Vanderbilt after making positive strides and coming up with a couple of particularly big wins in SEC play last season. While there's talk the experienced but ineffective Ken Seals could still see some action, this is undoubtedly quarterback A.J. Swann's offense. With last year's top running back Ray Davis bolting to Kentucky, the Commodores ground game could be a work-in-progress in the early going. I do think they lean more on Swann's arm (he's not much of a runner) in this particular matchup and then worry about pounding away after building a substantial lead. Again, that's where the Rainbow Warriors improved secondary needs to come in. Defense is where Vandy needs to have the biggest improvement and I believe it will. Vandy brought in Aeneas DiCosmo from Stanford and Prince Kollie from Notre Dame to bolster the pass rush that simply didn't create enough splash plays last season. Losing last year's top tackle Anfernee Orji certainly isn't ideal but I do think there are enough good pieces in place to make this Commodores defense anything but a swinging gate this season. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between TCU and Georgia at 7:30 pm et on Monday.

Both CFP semi-final matchups ended up being high-scoring affairs and that's helping this total hold strong approaching the mid-60's. I believe it will prove too high. Lost in TCU's 51-point explosion against Michigan was the fact that it completed just 14-of-29 passes for 225 yards - the second straight games in which the Horned Frogs completed 18 or fewer passes. Their ground game has of course been dominant, led by RB Kendre Miller. It is worth noting that Miller suffered a minor MCL injury in that semi-final against Michigan and now goes against a Georgia defense that has held opponents to just 3.0 yards per rush this season. The Bulldogs check in having allowed more than 94 rushing yards just once in their last six games - that coming in the scare against Ohio State in the CFP semi-final (we won with the Buckeyes in that game). Note that TCU earned itself three extra offensive possessions against Michigan, turning the Wolverines over three times in that contest. They're unlikely to enjoy the same good fortune here, noting that Georgia has turned it over just once in each of its last four games. While the Bulldogs offense has enjoyed tremendous success over their last two games going back to the SEC Championship Game, here we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times Georgia has played away from home off three straight 'over' results, as is the case here, leading to an average total of only 45.8 points. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between South Carolina and Notre Dame at 3:30 pm et on Friday.

This total has dropped considerably since the opener and rightfully so with both teams announcing a number of key offensive contributors will be opting-out, or transferring. The Gamecocks wrapped up the regular season with consecutive wild, high-scoring affairs - both going 'over' the total. Meanwhile, the Irish saw each of their last six contests go 'over' the total. With both teams missing the focal point of their offenses at the tight end position, I don't doubt we'll see a more run-centric attack from both squads, effectively shortening this game and keeping proceedings 'under' the still-lofty total. Take the under (8*).

Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday.

I don't expect either offense to have any trouble moving the football up and down the field, not to mention ending drives with 7's in this 'defense-optional' Bowl matchup. Texas will be without RBs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson but that should only lead to more passing and there's little reason to expect QB Quinn Ewers to be faced with any sort of resistance against the Huskies sieve-like pass defense. What will be an issue for Texas will be the gaping hole on defense left by the absence of LB DeMarvion Overshown. This isn't a particularly deep defense and Washington certainly has the pieces on offense to take advantage of any weaknesses. Note that the Huskies didn't suffer any sort of drop-off in production at all away from home this season, averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per pass attempt. It's all systems go for the Huskies here with QB Michael Penix and the rest of his weapons healthy and ready to go. Of note, this will be Penix's first-ever Bowl game and I expect him to show up and show out. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Syracuse at 2 pm et on Thursday.

With so many coaching changes and player opt-outs and two lukewarm offenses but capable defenses taking the field, I'm expecting nothing other than a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday in the Bronx. Arguably Syracuse's top two offensive players will miss this game in RB Sean Tucker and OT Matthew Bergeron. That leads me to believe we'll see a scaled-back version of the Syracuse offense against a Minnesota defense that yielded just 3.8 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass attempt this season. It remains to be seen whether the Golden Gophers have the services of QB Tanner Morgan. Even if he can play, there's no guarantee he can finish the game. While Minnesota doesn't have quite the big losses on offense to deal with, the fact that it lost WR Chris Autman-Bell to a season-ending injury back in October was the biggest blow of the campaign. Like Syracuse, Minnesota has performed reasonably well defensively allowing 3.8 ypr and 6.1 yppa this season. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Wednesday.

I like the way this one sets up as a shootout between two SEC and Big 12 squads inside the friendly confines of NRG Stadium in Houston on Wednesday night. Texas Tech suffered a major blow with the injury loss of do-it-all LB Tyree Wilson back in early November. The Red Raiders did reel off three consecutive ATS wins down the stretch but looked vulnerable defensively in games against Kansas and Oklahoma. On a positive note, Texas Tech offensive lineman Weston Wright will play in this Bowl game despite declaring for the NFL Draft. QB Tyler Shough is expected to start under center after lighting it up for the Red Raiders down the stretch. I like his mobility and decision-making, limiting his sacks and turnovers in crunch time this season. Ole Miss will have most of its key contributors on the field for this Bowl game. The Rebels have an electric offense under Lane Kiffin, averaging 5.5 yards per rush and 8.0 yards per pass attempt. Those numbers only rise away from home. Without Wilson, the Red Raiders aren't well-equipped to contend with Ole Miss' multi-faceted offensive attack. This is a 'first to 40 wins' type of game in my opinion. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Air Force and Baylor at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

I can understand the temptation to go with the 'over' in this relatively low-totalled contest on Thursday. I'm not convinced it's the right decision, however, as Air Force battles Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl. While the Falcons option-based offense gets all of the press, they proved they can play some defense this season as well. Only one of Air Force's 12 opponents has completed at least 20 passes and that was FCS squad Northern Iowa way back in Week 1 - in a game where the Falcons still gave up only 17 points. They also held the opposition to just 3.6 yards per rush. I can't help but feel Baylor's best days are behind it from an offensive standpoint. After scoring 38 or more points in five of its first nine games, Baylor put up 3, 28 and 27 points over its final three contests. The real problem for the Bears this season was their defensive play. They fired their defensive and special teams coordinators at the end of the regular season and this game will mark the first step toward turning the page in that department. I think Air Force's relatively one-dimensional offense does help Baylor's cause here, noting that the Bears have allowed just 138 rushing yards per game on 3.8 yards per rush this season. The Bears regular season finale against Texas was a good example of their offensive inconsistency. After scoring their second touchdown of the game with less than a minute remaining in the first half, they never reached the end zone again on offense, only scoring a touchdown on a defensive fumble return early in the fourth quarter. It was a similar story the game previous against TCU as the Bears scored two touchdowns in the game's first 18 minutes but then didn't find the end zone again until the first minute of the fourth quarter. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Toledo and Liberty at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

I'm expecting a high-scoring affair as Toledo and Liberty, two teams that have enjoyed completely opposite Bowl results in recent years, do battle in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday. I'm counting a 'sling-shot effect' from the two offenses in this contest. Toledo got bogged down offensively down the stretch - part of that had to do with dual-threat QB Dequan Finn being banged-up. It does draw Liberty missing its top linebacker in Ahmad Walker after he transferred to SMU. The Flames got completely distracted down the stretch, seemingly so at least, and you can't really blame them as they dealt with rumors swirling around head coach Hugh Freeze's impending departure to Auburn - rumors that came to fruition at the end of the regular season. Now they've had time to regroup and I expect a much better showing here, led by an offense that finally has its quarterback room healthy again. Liberty has a legitimate three-headed monster at quarterback and should be able to give the Rockets middling defense fits in this one. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Connecticut and Marshall at 2:30 pm et on Monday.

This game is being pegged as a defensive slugfest or at least a sloppy affair according to the total, which sits in the low-40's at the time of writing. I believe we could be in for a far more entertaining, high-scoring contest than most are expecting, however. Both offenses trended in the right direction down the stretch. UConn scored 27, 36 and 17 points in its final three games with the outlier being a game in which run-heavy Army took the air out of the football (that contest still reached 51 points). Marshall scored 28, 23 and 28 points in its final three contests. UConn is expected to get a major offensive boost for this game with previously injured wide receivers Keelan Marion and Cam Ross expected to be back on the field. Marshall welcomed RB Rasheen Ali back for the final two regular season games and he went off, running for 181 yards in those two contests. It's hard to imagine the Huskies having any answers for the Thundering Herd's dynamic backfield duo of Ali and Khalan Laborn, noting that UConn has been cooked for 168 rush yards per game on 4.5 yards per rush this season. Those numbers jump to 218 rush ypg on 5.2 ypr away from Storrs. Take the over (8*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Oregon State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday.

Most are anticipating a shootout between these two teams on the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Saturday. I'm not so easily convinced. The Florida Gators will start third-string QB Jack Miller III after Anthony Richardson opted out and backup Jalen Kitna was arrested on child pornography charges. That's not the only issue as the Gators will be without key offensive linemen O'Cyrus Torrence and Josh Braun. Torrence's absence in particular stings as he rates out as one of the best o-linemen in the country. We can expect the Gators to put this one in the hands of their ground game for the most part. Oregon State exploded in the second half for a stunning come-from-behind win over rival Oregon in its regular season finale. Keep in mind, the Beavers scored a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining in the first quarter in that game but didn't reach the end zone again until less than three minutes remaining in the third quarter and much of their offensive success came after the Ducks inexplicably let down their guard nursing a seemingly insurmountable lead. We know the script when it comes to the Beavers without standout QB Chance Nolan. They'll put the game on the shoulders of their ground attack and defense with QB Ben Gulbranson having attempted no more than 28 passes while throwing for 250 yards or less in every game he appeared in (nine) this season. With both teams coming off wild, high-scoring affairs in their respective regular season finales, I can't help but feel this total is inflated. Take the under (8*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Miami-Ohio and UAB at 11:30 am et on Friday.

I can't help but feel this total is way off. Neither of these teams have shown any ability to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, at least lately in the case of Miami-Ohio and all season long when it comes to UAB. The Blazers boast one of the most underrated or overlooked 1-2 tandems in the backfield in the nation in RBs Dewayne McBride and Jermaine Brown and figure to feast on a Miami-Ohio defense that never really got it together over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Blazers were eviscerated for 172 rush yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush over the course of the season. While the Redhawks backfield hasn't been all that explosive, I do think their ability to run the football should open things up for the passing game here. It's worth noting that three of Miami-Ohio's five highest-scoring performances of the season came in its last four contests. UAB's defense - much like Miami-Ohio's - entered the season with optimism but was never able to truly flourish, allowing 20 or more points in 10 of 11 games against FBS opposition. The only occasion where it did hold an FBS opponent to fewer than 20 points that contest still reached 55 total points in a rout of Middle Tennessee State. Take the over (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and Boise State at 4 pm et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring affair than most are expecting on Saturday afternoon as Fresno State battles Boise State for the Mountain West Conference championship. Fresno State has been building toward this game, seemingly improving defensively with each passing week, going from 30 points allowed against UNLV on November 11th to just 14 and 0 over the next two games against Nevada and Wyoming, respectively. Boise State did put up 42 points in last week's rout of Utah State but it isn't the offensive juggernaut it once was. You can be sure the Broncos will exercise some caution offensively here as Fresno State has been very opportunistic on defense, collecting five turnovers in the last two games combined and 11 over its last five contests. Noting that Boise State has completed more than 20 passes only twice in 12 games this season, topping out at 34 pass attempts over its last 11 games, it's unlikely we'll see the Broncos slinging it all over the field here. It's a different story for the Jake Haener-led Fresno State offense as it is pass-happy to say the least. With that being said, Boise State should match up well in that regard, noting that it has allowed 20+ pass completions and 300+ passing yards only twice this season, including last week against Utah State in a game where the Aggies could muster 'only' 23 points. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 60 points in a Boise State blowout earlier this season. I do think the Bulldogs have improved defensively since then and a more tightly-contested affair should lend itself to a lower-scoring contest as well this time around. Considering the closing total for that first matchup was 45.5, the case can certainly be made that we're working with an inflated number here. Take the under (8*).

Conference Championship Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Coastal Carolina and Troy at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

We got precisely the results we wanted out of both of these teams over the last couple of games to set us up exceptionally well with the 'under' in this Sun Belt Conference Championship matchup on Saturday. Both teams saw their last two contests go 'over' the total, not only that, but both were turnover-prone in their respective regular season finale, leading them to perhaps approach this game with a little more caution than they might have otherwise. For Coastal Carolina, there's certainly reason to go ultra-conservative on offense in this game with QB Jarrett Guest struggling since taking over for NFL prospect Grayson McCall. Guest was directly responsible for two turnovers in each of the last two games (his two starts since McCall went down with a season-ending injury). Facing an opportunistic and perennially-tough Troy defense here, the Chanticleers won't want to leave anything to chance, perhaps putting this game largely in the hands of their defense (which is in line for a strong bounce-back effort after a poor performance against James Madison last week). Troy hung 48 points on the scoreboard in last week's rout of hapless Arkansas State. Keep in mind, however, that the Trojans actually didn't reach the end zone for a second time in that game until there were less than five minutes remaining in the third quarter. Like Guest, Troy QB Gunnar Watson has also been mistake-prone tossing an interception to go along with a lost fumble in last week's contest. The Trojans, like the Chanticleers, want to run the football, but will be running into a Coastal Carolina defense that has held up reasonably well against the run this season, allowing 4.0 yards per rush overall and 3.7 away from home. Down the stretch the Chanticleers stiffened up against opposing ground attacks, yielding fewer than 90 rushing yards in three of their last four games. Coastal Carolina has put up 36, 42 and 35 points in winning the last three meetings in this series but they didn't match up in the regular season this year, and we're obviously talking about much different Chanticleers squads, certainly in those games with McCall at the helm of the offense. Noting that Troy has held seven straight opponents to fewer than 20 points but also finds itself in a letdown of sorts offensively off its highest-scoring performance of the season, we'll confidently back the 'under' on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

SEC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Mississippi State and Ole Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday.

While this isn't Army-Navy, these two teams have now gone 'under' each of the last five times they've met over the last five seasons. I'm expecting that trend to continue on Thursday. The Bulldogs offense hasn't been the same high-octane scoring machine it was earlier in the campaign. Yes, they exploded for 56 points last Saturday, but that was against FCS squad East Tennessee State. They were held to fewer than 20 points in three of four games prior to that and in the other scored only three offensive touchdowns in regulation time against Auburn. It's been a similar story for Ole Miss as its offense has struggled as the schedule has toughened up. Last Saturday against Arkansas, the Rebels didn't score a touchdown until nearly a minute into the fourth quarter, when the game was already well in hand for the Razorbacks, up 42-6. Two games back against Alabama, Ole Miss couldn't muster a single point from seven minutes remaining in the third quarter on. Even the game prior to that, an eventual 31-28 win over Texas A&M, the Rebels scored a touchdown less than two minutes into the game but then didn't reach the end zone again until nearly midway through the third quarter. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on the 'under' between USC and UCLA at 8 pm et on Saturday.

USC has now seen each of its last four games go 'over' the total, even though last week's game against Colorado really had no business getting there (yes, I'm still a little sour after backing the 'under' in that game). In that game against the Buffaloes, the Trojans defense came up big, holding Colorado out of the end zone until there were fewer than six minutes remaining in the third quarter. Offensively, USC didn't score a touchdown until the fifth minute of the second quarter and it will obviously be facing a tougher challenge against a UCLA defense that has given up its share of points, but has come up big at times as well. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 19-8 the last 27 times USC has gone on the road after scoring 37+ points in consecutive games, resulting in an average total of just 51.9 points. UCLA, meanwhile, checks in off a stunning 34-28 home loss against Arizona and that's notable as the 'under' is 27-9 in the Bruins last 36 games when coming off a loss by a touchdown or less in conference play. That situation has produced an average total of only 50.0 points. Last year we saw a closing total of 65.5 in this matchup. The fact that game totaled a whopping 95 points and USC is on an 'over' streak has this total set higher than it should be in my opinion. Take the under (8*).

My selection is on the 'over' between Northwestern and Purdue at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I like the way this one sets up as a higher-scoring affair than most are expecting. Northwestern's season has been circling the drain for weeks now and last week's 31-3 loss at Minnesota might have represented rock-bottom. I do expect the Wildcats to put up somewhat of a fight this week as they look to bounce back after scoring just 10 points combined in their last two games. Purdue has a knack for letting opponents hang around here in West Lafayette and Northwestern has won five consecutive trips here going all the way back to 2009. With that being said, this is a smash spot for the Boilermakers offense so rather than grab the points with the visitors, we'll go with the 'over' as this total continues to move in the wrong direction in my opinion. An injury to RB King Doerue seemingly opened the door for what might be a good one in Devin Mockobee. He has ran for 100+ yards in four of the last six games, reaching the end zone in five of the last six contests. Northwestern's defense has been cooked for 4.8 yards per rush this season. Of course, the Wildcats pass defense hasn't been much better, especially since losing CB Coco Azema to a season-ending injury in October. While Northwestern isn't likely to throw all over Purdue - not with its top two quarterbacks both questionable due to injuries suffered last week - I do think it can make considerable gains on the ground, where Purdue has sagged as the season has gone on, yielding 122, 179, 184 and 102 rushing yards over the last four games. As I mentioned, the Boilers give up their share of points here at home, where they've allowed 35, 0, 26, 37 and 24 points in five contests this season. The outlier came in a Week 2 matchup with FCS squad Indiana State. Take the over (8*).

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Virginia Tech and Liberty at 12 noon et on Saturday.

I really like the way this one sets up as a low-scoring affair between the down-trodden Hokies and upstart Flames on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech won two of its first three games this season but has gone winless in seven games since. While you might not know it by last week's 24-7 loss to Duke, I don't think the Hokies have quit on the season. This is still a talented defensive team at the very least and one that can relish the role of spoiler in the final two games of the regular season. Note that for as bad as things have gone for the Hokies and for as little the offense has been able to produce and stay on the field, they've actually held their last four opponents to 20, 22, 28 and 24 points. There was a stretch in late-September and early-October where their defense got worn down but we have seen that unit regroup and play the way it can lately. Now it faces a Liberty offense that has kept rolling along despite missing a number of key contributors due to injuries, including its top two quarterbacks on the depth chart and standout RB Dae Dae Hunter. The 'next man up' philosophy on that side of the football certainly worked last week as the Flames scored 33 points, albeit in a losing effort against UConn. They will face a tougher defensive challenge here, and I would anticipate perhaps a more conservative, ball control type of offensive gameplan given QB Jonathan Bennett's turnover-prone nature so far. The Liberty defense suffered a letdown against the Huskies last week but that was to be expected after holding Arkansas to 19 points in a stunning upset win the week previous. Note that Liberty has still held three of its last four opponents to 20 points or less and should be able to contain a Hokies offense that scored a touchdown less than two minutes in against Duke last week but then never hit the scoresheet again. Take the under (10*).