PAGE_HEADER

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

Game 5 of this series really had no business getting 'over' the total but thankfully a second half scoring explosion helped it along to cash our ticket. We'll go the other way in Game 6 on Thursday as the Pacers look to stave off elimination, perhaps without the services of star Tyrese Haliburton. If ever there were a spot for Indiana to make a game as ugly as possible, this would be it. We know they're capable of doing just that as we've seen it throughout the playoffs as they've employed a very physical brand of basketball. They can ill afford to allow the Thunder to get off 90+ field goal attempts again as they did in Game 5. Of note, the Pacers have held the Thunder to 40 or fewer made field goals in all five games in this series. In fact, Indiana has limited 10 of its last 13 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Oklahoma City has been even better in that regard, limiting Indiana to less than 40 made field goals in four of five games in this series. Better yet, the Thunder have allowed 40 or fewer made field goals in 19 of their last 23 contests. You would have to go back eight games to find OKC allowing an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. Take the under (10*).

NBA Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Indiana at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 2 of this series managed to sneak 'over' the total thanks to an incredibly high-scoring second half. I expect a different story to unfold now that this series is tied up at one game apiece and the scene shifts to Indiana for Game 3 on Wednesday. I think both teams were probably content with the pace at which Game 2 was played. The Thunder and Pacers got off an identical 82 field goal attempts but the difference was Oklahoma City's exceptional shooting efficiency (it knocked down 40-of-82 FG attempts). Of note, the Pacers have now held three straight and 17 of their last 20 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Their physical brand of defense has translated to postseason success to be sure. The Thunder remain an elite defensive team and they showed it on Sunday, limiting the Pacers to 37 made field goals. In fact, they've held three straight and 17 of their last 20 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. You would have to go back five games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to get off more than 85 field goal attempts while the Pacers have hoisted up 85 or fewer FG attempts in four straight and six of their last seven contests. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and New York at 8 pm et on Thursday.

We saw an incredibly high-scoring affair in Game 4 on Tuesday, similar to what we witnessed in the series-opener (albeit helped along by overtime). We've yet to see consecutive games in this series go 'over' the total, however. I expect that trend to continue here as the Knicks face elimination at home on Thursday. Note that Indiana, while playing incredibly well offensively, has also been a force defensively, holding five of its last six opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 12 foes to 42 or fewer. Not only that, but the Pacers have done an excellent job of limiting the Knicks tempo, holding them to 84, 78 and 82 field goal attempts over the last three games. While New York comes off a terrible defensive effort in Game 4, we can anticipate it rising to the occasion back at home with its back against the wall in Game 5. On a positive note, the Knicks have held seven of their last eight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. They're capable of making this game a little 'uglier' in an effort to stave off elimination on Thursday. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Minnesota at 8:30 pm et on Friday.

The Timberwolves have their backs against the wall after another poor defensive performance in Game 2 of this series to dig themselves an 0-2 hole. Returning home, we can expect Minnesota to tighten things up defensively, keeping in mind, Game 2 marked the first time in 13 games that it had allowed an opponent to connect on more than 41 field goals. On the flip side, I'm not sure the Timberwolves are going to find any quick solutions to break down this Thunder defense. Oklahoma City has held Minnesota to just 29 and 36 made field goals through the first two games of this series and has limited eight straight and 14 of its last 15 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Expect a grind-it-out type of affair as the scene shifts to Minnesota on Saturday. Take the under (10*).

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and New York at 8 pm et on Friday.

We've seen consecutive high-scoring 'over' results in this series including the Celtics 127-102 home win to avoid elimination in Game 5 two nights ago. I expect a much different story to unfold in Game 6 on Friday, however, as the scene shifts back to Manhattan.

The Celtics certainly rose to the occasion on Wednesday, connecting on a blistering 44-of-84 field goal attempts in an eventual blowout victory. The pace certainly wasn't there for such a high-scoring result as the Knicks shot just 29-of-81 from the field. While New York figures to enforce the tempo back at home on Friday, it's worth noting that the Knicks have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in nine of their last 10 games and 37 or less in four of the first five games in this series.

On the flip side, Game 5 ended a streak of nine straight games in which New York had held the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. I'm willing to bet on the C's red hot shooting performance in game 5 on being an outlier that was supported by a predictable letdown from the Knicks with a 3-1 series lead.

Boston can't afford to let its guard down defensively the way it did in the most recent game played here at Madison Square Garden if it wants to extend this series back to Beantown for Game 7. Note that outside of that ugly defensive effort, the C's have been terrific at that end of the floor, limiting 12 of their last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the under between Golden State and Minnesota at 9:30 pm ET on Wednesday.

While Game 4 of this series saw a jump in scoring with the Timberwolves edging the Warriors 117-110, the pace and shot volume simply haven't supported consistently high-scoring outcomes. In fact, Minnesota has seen a steady decline in field goal attempts over the last three games, attempting just 79 shots in Game 4 — their lowest of the series. The difference on Monday was their efficient 49.4% shooting clip, which isn’t something to bank on repeating.

Golden State, meanwhile, continues to struggle offensively without Steph Curry. The Warriors have connected on 37 or fewer field goals in each of the first four games in this series and in 13 of their last 15 games overall. That’s a striking indicator of a team lacking scoring consistency and efficiency.

Now facing elimination, Golden State will likely double down on its defensive effort in an attempt to grind out a win. Expect a more methodical, hard-nosed approach, especially early, as they try to take the Timberwolves out of rhythm. Keep in mind, the last time Minnesota allowed an opponent to make more than 40 field goals in a game was April 10th — a testament to their sustained defensive excellence.

With both teams struggling to generate high shot volume and one (Golden State) dealing with serious scoring limitations, this sets up as a lower-scoring, high-stakes defensive battle.

Take the under. Projected score: Timberwolves 101, Warriors 92.

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday.

After consecutive high-scoring games, we're buying low on the total and expecting a regression in Game 6 as the series returns to a more defensive tone. Houston extended the series with a blowout win in Game 5, shooting a red-hot 55% from the floor (43-of-78). That marked the first time in the series the Rockets surpassed 40 made field goals — a number they had failed to reach in each of the first four games.

It's worth noting that Houston has been held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all five games. That’s a testament to Golden State’s ability to limit possessions and keep the Rockets in check outside of last game’s outlier performance. The Warriors, meanwhile, were forced into an inflated pace in Game 5, jacking up 103 shots — an unsustainable figure and one driven by a lopsided deficit and desperation.

Before that, Golden State had been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in four straight games, and I expect a return to that type of defensive execution on Friday. This is another elimination game - one that figures to be more competitive than we saw two nights ago - and that often brings with it more deliberate play-calling and an increased emphasis on defense and half-court sets.

With both teams locking in on the defensive end and the pace slowing considerably, this projects as a tight, lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Warriors 101, Rockets 96

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

While we did cash with the 'over' in Game 4 on Sunday, I'm expecting a return to a lower-scoring, grind-it-out style in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. Sunday’s game saw a somewhat inflated scoreline thanks to a better shooting performance from Boston and a looser game script with the Celtics in control for much of the night, not to mention plenty of late scoring thanks the Magic's desperation fouling. Now, with the series 3-1 in favor of Boston and the potential of Orlando's elimination, I expect both teams to tighten things up defensively.

This has been a slow-paced series overall, with Orlando in particular dragging games into half-court battles. The Magic have held Boston to 39 or fewer made field goals in each of the last four games — an incredible feat considering the Celtics’ potent offense. That’s largely due to Orlando’s ability to limit possessions and force Boston into long, contested shots.

Boston’s defense also deserves credit. Outside of a couple of brief stretches, they’ve consistently bottled up the Magic's offense, and now back at home, I anticipate the Celtics emphasizing a defensive-first approach as they look to finish off the series. Note that even with the 'over' hitting in Game 4, the Celtics still held the Magic to just 34 made field goals (they've limited Orlando to 37 or fewer made field goals in all four games) — nothing explosive.

Orlando hasn’t topped 98 points in three of the four games in this series, only reaching 100 points in the other contest. Given the stakes, expect long possessions, fewer transition opportunities, and plenty of physical half-court play.

Take the under. Projected score: Celtics 102, Magic 91.

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Orlando at 7 pm et on Sunday.

While Game 3 saw both teams bogged down in a sluggish, low-scoring affair — combining for just 188 points — I’m expecting a bounce-back in scoring when the Celtics and Magic meet again for Game 4 on Sunday night.

Friday’s 95-93 Orlando win saw Boston limited to a season-low 74 field goal attempts, but it's important to note that Boston has historically responded well offensively after extended shooting slumps. The Celtics have now been held to 37 or fewer made field goals in four straight games, matching their longest drought of the season. The last time that happened, they exploded for 139 points against Brooklyn in mid-November. While I’m not projecting quite that type of eruption here against Orlando’s stout defense, it sets up nicely for Boston to find its rhythm and lift the scoring environment.

Orlando still faces heavy pressure trailing 2-1 in the series. In a similar spot in Game 2, we saw the Magic perform better offensively while chasing from behind, knocking down a series-high 39 field goals. If the Celtics take control again on Sunday, that could force Orlando to play a little faster and take more chances offensively, helping the 'over' cause.

It won’t take an out-of-control shootout to surpass this relatively modest number. With Boston likely to come out with more purpose offensively and Orlando capable of contributing enough, we should see a higher-scoring contest than we did on Friday.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Celtics 107, Magic 102.

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the over between Oklahoma City and Memphis at 9:30 pm ET on Thursday.

The total has dipped following back-to-back low-scoring games to open the series, creating value as we shift venues to Memphis for Game 3. Oklahoma City is playing with extreme offensive confidence right now, having made 45 or more field goals in five of its last six games. The Thunder's offensive pace remains relentless, taking 98 or more field goal attempts in four straight contests, including a staggering 104 attempts in their Game 2 win. Even with a strong defense, the Thunder allow their opponents plenty of opportunities—four straight opponents have reached 91 or more field goal attempts. That trend should continue here, especially with the Grizzlies returning home and likely to push tempo in a must-win spot.

While Memphis hasn’t cashed in offensively yet this series, they've generated volume—getting off 93 and 91 field goal attempts in the first two games. They simply haven’t converted at the level they were prior to the series when they made 40+ field goals in six straight games. That kind of regression is unlikely to last, especially back home where role players typically perform better. Overall, the Grizzlies have hoisted 90 or more field goal attempts in 27 of their last 32 games, a sign they’re doing enough offensively to contribute to a higher-scoring game when their shots begin to fall. With both teams continuing to play at a high tempo, expect this one to cruise over the posted number.

Take the over. Projected score: Thunder 123, Grizzlies 113.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the under between Atlanta and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

While both teams come in on two-game ‘over’ streaks, this matchup sets up well for a return to a lower-scoring affair. Atlanta has quietly shifted into a more controlled pace recently, holding six of its last seven opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts, with five of those held to 84 or fewer. That’s a key trend for a Hawks squad that has seen its defensive numbers skewed by red-hot shooting performances from its last four opponents, all of whom shot 50% or better from the field. Brooklyn, however, has been struggling to finish plays and shouldn't be expected to maintain the same efficiency as Atlanta’s recent opponents.

The Nets have made good on 41 or fewer field goals in 11 consecutive games, and while they did shoot well last time out, that came against a Pelicans team that hasn’t exactly been stout defensively. Brooklyn has also leaned into a slower tempo, holding five of its last six opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of its last 24 to fewer than 90.

These two teams met on March 16th and combined for 236 points, but that was a back-to-back spot for both, and each team got up 90 field goal attempts. That’s unlikely to be repeated here with both squads coming in rested and trending toward slower, more deliberate play.

This isn’t a spot where either team will need to push the pace for a full four quarters. Atlanta is a double-digit favorite, and a second-half slowdown is certainly in play if the game gets out of hand. With both teams quietly improving on the defensive end and limiting possessions, the setup points to a lower-scoring contest.

Take the under. Projected score: Hawks 117, Nets 106.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm ET on Thursday.

Both of these teams enter this matchup riding three-game 'over' streaks, but I expect that trend to reverse. The Timberwolves are coming off a hard-fought double-overtime win in Denver on Tuesday. Despite that extended contest, they still managed to hold the Nuggets to just 86 field goal attempts, highlighting their ability to dictate tempo with strong defense. Minnesota has limited two other opponents to just 79 and 68 field goal attempts since March 21st, showing a commitment to slowing the pace.

Brooklyn has been content to play at a methodical speed as well, with seven of its last eight opponents getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts. On the offensive end, the Nets have struggled to generate consistent production, connecting on 40 or fewer field goals in eight consecutive games. With both teams emphasizing defense and controlling possessions, I expect points to come at a premium.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Timberwolves 108, Nets 101.

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New Orleans at 8 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams enter this contest in back-to-back situations, which could lead to a sluggish offensive performance on both ends. While Philadelphia has been involved in high-scoring affairs recently, its defensive issues may not be as glaring in this matchup given New Orleans’ inconsistency on offense. The Pelicans just put up 130 points in a loss to Detroit, but they haven’t strung together consecutive high-scoring performances in quite some time.

New Orleans has been playing at a slower pace, attempting fewer than 90 field goals in seven of its last eight games while also limiting opponents to the same threshold in six straight contests. The 76ers have also held five of their last six opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts. While the first meeting between these teams produced 238 total points, it was played at a faster pace than what we should expect in this one.

Take the under. Projected score: New Orleans 113, Philadelphia 108.

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Los Angeles at 9 pm ET on Sunday.

This total is the highest we've seen in this matchup all season, which feels like an overcorrection given how these teams typically play against each other. Their highest previous posted total was 220.5, and that game ended with just 197 total points.

Both squads enter off hot shooting performances, but these are two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Clippers may have hit 132 and 128 points in their last two games, but they attempted just 84 and 78 field goals, indicating a reliance on unsustainable efficiency. Meanwhile, they've limited four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals, while the Thunder have held three straight foes to 37 or fewer.

With both teams likely to settle into a more defensive-minded battle, I expect this game to stay under the total.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Clippers 110, Thunder 107.

Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and New York at 8 pm ET on Saturday.

All three previous meetings between these teams this season have gone 'over' the total, and I expect another high-scoring affair here. The Wizards were trounced 120-105 at home against the Magic last night in a predictable flat spot following a long seven-game road trip. That marked the first time in nine games that Washington didn't attempt at least 90 field goals. I look for them to push the pace far more in this triple-revenge spot against the Knicks.

Defensively, the Wizards have struggled, allowing their last four opponents to connect on 48, 42, 50, and 46 field goals. Meanwhile, the Knicks are coming off an 'upset' loss in Charlotte in which they scored just 98 points. They have yet to be held under 100 points in consecutive games this season, making this a prime bounce-back opportunity against a Wizards team they've already torched for 134, 136, and 126 points in their three previous matchups.

Take the over. Projected score: New York 126, Washington 113.

Atlantic Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

These teams just met on Saturday in a high-scoring affair, with the Celtics edging out a 115-113 victory. That game flew 'over' the total, as did Brooklyn's next contest, an upset win over Atlanta on Sunday. However, I anticipate a much lower-scoring matchup this time around. While the pace wasn’t overwhelming in Saturday’s meeting, Boston shot exceptionally well, and it's unlikely we see the same level of efficiency here, especially with the Celtics returning home from a short road trip and potentially looking ahead to a long six-game western swing starting Friday.

Defensively, Boston has been dominant, holding six straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Even in the lone game where it allowed 43 makes, the Celtics still held Utah to just 108 points. Notably, Boston has posted consecutive 'over' results only once since February 10th, further reinforcing the likelihood of a slower, more defensive-minded battle. Expect a lower-scoring affair at TD Garden.

Take the under. Projected score: Boston 110, Brooklyn 98.

Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Indiana at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Indiana enters this contest on a five-game 'under' streak, but that trend is unlikely to continue given the way both teams play. The Pacers pushed the pace in Monday's loss to Chicago, firing off 101 field goal attempts but struggling with their shooting. That kind of volume is encouraging for an 'over' play, as the scoring will likely bounce back sooner rather than later. Indiana has consistently created plenty of opportunities, hoisting at least 90 shots in three straight games while showing little commitment to defense, allowing at least 94 opponent field goal attempts in four consecutive contests.

Milwaukee should also be in an aggressive mindset after dropping back-to-back games over the weekend. The Bucks had been giving up plenty of high-percentage looks before Sunday's loss to Cleveland, having allowed five straight opponents to hit 42+ field goals. That should work in Indiana’s favor, as the Pacers have shown they’re willing to push the tempo regardless of their recent shooting struggles.

With two uptempo teams and both squads eager to get back on track, expect a high-scoring affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Milwaukee 127, Indiana 122.

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the under between Portland and Philadelphia at 7 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams are coming off 'over' results, with Portland cashing three straight, but the numbers suggest a lower-scoring contest here. The Blazers' game in Cleveland yesterday included overtime, yet both teams still only made 42 field goals each. Portland has quietly tightened up defensively, holding five of its last six opponents under 40 made field goals in regulation.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, snapped a long losing streak with an 'upset' win over Golden State on Saturday, thanks to an uncharacteristically hot shooting night. That type of offensive explosion has been rare for the 76ers, who have held six of their last seven opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Expect this matchup to settle into a slower-paced, defensive-oriented affair.

Take the under. Projected score: 76ers 108 Trail Blazers 102.

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the over between the Clippers and Lakers at 9:30 pm ET on Sunday.

These teams just faced off on Friday in a defensive battle that ended in a 106-102 Lakers victory. However, I expect a faster pace and higher-scoring affair in this rematch.

The Lakers have now gone under the total in six consecutive games, matching their longest such streak of the season. That trend has likely caused oddsmakers to set the total a bit too low for Sunday’s contest. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been alternating between over and under results, having not played consecutive under games since mid-January. Given the offensive firepower on both sides, I expect this one to break the recent under trend.

Take the over. Projected score: Clippers 118, Lakers 113.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Dallas at 8:40 pm ET on Saturday.

While both teams enter this matchup riding 'under' streaks, the recent pace of play and defensive vulnerabilities point toward a higher-scoring affair. Milwaukee has seen back-to-back 'under' results, but those games weren’t due to a lack of opportunities—its opponents attempted 91 and 105 field goals, exposing some defensive weaknesses. On the offensive side, the Bucks found a rhythm in their recent win over Denver, putting up 90 field goal attempts, their most in seven games.

Dallas has cashed four straight 'under' tickets, but that has more to do with poor shooting efficiency than a lack of possessions. The Mavericks have attempted 98 and 97 field goals in their last two games, keeping the pace high. More importantly, their defense has been shaky, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to get off more than 90 shot attempts. If Milwaukee continues to push the tempo and Dallas struggles defensively, this total should be in play for an 'over.'

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Milwaukee 122, Dallas 118.

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the over between Sacramento and Utah at 9 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams are coming off 'under' results, but I expect a different outcome in this matchup. The Kings took advantage of a struggling Hornets squad two nights ago, holding them to just 30 made field goals in a blowout win. However, prior to that game, Sacramento had allowed at least 43 made field goals in 9 of its previous 10 and 12 of its last 14 contests.

Meanwhile, the Jazz are fresh off a poor shooting performance against Portland on Monday, but they've attempted 90 or more field goals in three straight games. They’ll have their chances to bounce back offensively here. On the defensive side, Utah has been highly permissive, allowing six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals.

Sacramento has been efficient offensively, making 40+ field goals in six straight games and 25 of its last 26. This game has all the makings of a high-paced, high-scoring affair.

Take the over. Projected score: Kings 128, Jazz 122.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Milwaukee at 6:10 pm ET on Sunday.

The Bucks have embraced a more methodical approach in recent games, resulting in three straight victories and three consecutive 'under' cashes. They've attempted 82 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games, converting on fewer than 40 of those in all four contests. That trend aligns with a defensive emphasis that has seen Milwaukee hold each of its last four opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals.

Miami figures to present another tough defensive challenge. The Heat have limited four of their last six opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they managed an efficient 46 field goals in Friday’s 120-111 win over Toronto, that came against a far weaker defensive opponent than the Bucks. Prior to that, Miami had been held to under 40 field goals in four straight games.

These two teams last met on January 23rd in a game that was played at a faster pace than expected yet still finished with just 221 total points. Given both teams' recent trends and defensive focus, I anticipate a lower-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Milwaukee 108, Miami 104.

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:40 pm ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest on two-game 'under' streaks, but I expect a shift toward a higher-scoring affair. The Suns are coming off their second straight loss, falling 119-112 at home to the Grizzlies last night. A big reason for Phoenix’s struggles has been its porous defense, allowing four consecutive opponents to attempt at least 92 field goals. The Suns have also given up 40 or more made field goals in 16 of their last 18 games, with their last four foes connecting on 52, 48, 45, and 43 shots from the field.

That defensive vulnerability sets up a prime bounce-back spot for a rested and favored Houston squad. The Rockets struggled offensively in a sluggish 94-87 matinee victory over Toronto on Sunday, shooting just 31-for-86 from the field. However, they showed their ability to push the pace in their previous outing, hoisting up 100 shot attempts against the Mavericks. Two of Houston’s last three opponents have attempted 90 or more field goals, paving the way for an up-tempo battle on Wednesday.

Take the over. Projected score: Houston 118, Phoenix 114.

Non-Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Los Angeles at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday.

We'll call for a high-scoring affair as the Pacers look to bounce back from a shocking blowout loss in Portland, while the Clippers aim to avoid a third straight defeat after falling to the rival Lakers on Tuesday.

Despite the 'under' cashing in Indiana's last two games, the Pacers continue to push the tempo, allowing four straight and eight of their last nine opponents to attempt at least 89 field goals. They've also surrendered 40+ made field goals in three of their last four contests.

Meanwhile, the Clippers have struggled defensively, allowing four consecutive opponents to hit 42 or more shots from the field. Indiana’s offense should benefit in this spot after seeing its streak of six straight games making 43+ field goals halted against Portland in a tough back-to-back situation.

Expect plenty of scoring in this non-conference matchup.

Take the 'over'. Projected score: Indiana 121, Los Angeles 118.

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and Boston at 7:30 pm ET on Monday.

Both teams come into this game off higher-scoring results on Saturday, but I expect the script to shift as they meet in Boston. This is the second and final regular season meeting between these teams, with the first matchup on January 3rd producing just 195 total points in a Celtics blowout victory in Houston. Notably, Boston shot exceptionally well in that game, hitting 39-of-77 from the field, a performance that may not repeat itself here.

The Rockets have regained their defensive edge recently, holding three of their last four opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Similarly, Boston has held opponents to 42 or fewer field goals in its last four games. Meanwhile, the Celtics have topped out at 44 made field goals in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston's offensive output has also dipped lately, as the Rockets have made just 37, 40, and 45 field goals over their last three contests after a stretch where they knocked down 48, 49, and 49.

Expect a slower pace and a focus on defense in this clash.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Boston 110, Houston 103.

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and San Antonio at 9:40 pm ET on Friday.

While both teams are coming off high-scoring performances and have trended toward the 'over' in recent games, I anticipate a shift in pace and defensive intensity in this rematch. Memphis, despite its recent stretch of 'over' results, has shown defensive consistency by holding four of its last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. That defensive capability will likely come into play here.

Additionally, San Antonio, which has struggled defensively in stretches, is capable of tightening up. The Spurs had held nine of their previous 11 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals before Wednesday’s game. That poor showing defensively likely serves as a wake-up call as they aim to limit Memphis’ shooting efficiency, which was an unsustainable 51-for-103 in the last meeting.

Expect both teams to make adjustments and this game to trend lower-scoring compared to their recent clash.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Memphis 115, San Antonio 106.

Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Indiana at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Both teams enter this contest having leaned toward lower-scoring games in recent outings, but the underlying dynamics point to a high-tempo, high-scoring affair. Chicago is coming off an 'under' result in an impressive 'upset' win over San Antonio on Monday. However, the Bulls have struggled defensively, allowing six consecutive opponents to convert on more than 40 field goals and three straight to make 44 or more. Adding to the defensive woes, Chicago has allowed 95+ field goal attempts in five straight games, signaling an inability—or unwillingness—to slow the pace.

Indiana has also recorded consecutive 'under' results, including a 113-99 victory over Brooklyn on Monday. Despite this, the Pacers' recent games have featured plenty of opportunities for opposing offenses. Five of Indiana’s last seven opponents have attempted at least 92 field goals, and six of those opponents have successfully converted more than 40 shots.

With both teams trending toward faster paces and allowing high shooting volumes, this matchup sets up as a potential track meet. Chicago's defensive struggles and Indiana's openness to high-volume games create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair. Look for both offenses to capitalize on the lack of defensive resistance.

Take the over. Projected score: Indiana 127, Chicago 120.

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 7 pm ET on Thursday.

These two teams recently met in a surprisingly high-scoring affair, with the Magic pulling out a 121-114 victory on December 21st. However, I anticipate a much different outcome in this rematch, with a slower pace and stronger defensive play dictating the flow of the game.

Miami has excelled defensively of late, holding three straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and seven of their last nine foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. On offense, the Heat have struggled to find rhythm, managing more than 41 made field goals only once in their last six games and being limited to exactly 36 in three straight contests.

Orlando has also leaned on its defense, holding four straight and seven of its last eight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Magic have been kept to 41 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 10 games, contributing to their consistent 'under' trends.

While the previous matchup saw an unusually high shooting percentage from both teams, I expect this rematch to be far more subdued, especially with both squads well-rested and emphasizing defense.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Orlando 101, Miami 96.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Charlotte at 7 pm ET on Monday.

This matchup features two teams trending toward lower-scoring outcomes, and I anticipate more of the same here. While their December 3rd meeting resulted in an 'over,' it required a late surge in scoring to get there—something unlikely to repeat in this rematch.

The 76ers' offense has been consistently limited, failing to reach 44 made field goals in any of their 23 games this season. While Philadelphia gave up 47 field goals in their most recent outing against Indiana, that was an exception. Over the last 12 games, the Sixers have held 10 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals, showcasing their defensive strength.

Charlotte has struggled offensively, making 40 or fewer field goals in nine consecutive games. Despite their offensive woes, the Hornets have remained competitive defensively, holding 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer field goals.

With both teams leaning on defense and showing significant limitations on offense, especially in terms of efficiency, this contest is likely to grind its way to a lower total than their previous meeting.

Take the under. Projected score: Philadelphia 106, Charlotte 98.

Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Toronto at 7:40 pm ET on Monday.

While the Knicks have seen their last three games go 'over' the total, those results were fueled more by efficient shooting than pace. New York has managed just 85, 76, and 79 field goal attempts in those contests, suggesting they haven't been pushing the tempo. On the defensive end, the Knicks have been steady, holding four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals.

Toronto, meanwhile, has been solid defensively, allowing fewer than 40 made field goals in three of its last four and five of its last seven games. The Raptors' ability to force tough shots should help keep the scoring in check against a Knicks squad that has relied heavily on shooting efficiency to reach higher totals.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: New York 110, Toronto 106.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.

Indiana has been one of the most offense-oriented teams in the league, often turning games into high-scoring affairs, regardless of their opponents. The Pacers are fresh off a 122-111 loss in Toronto last night, marking their third straight defeat. Their defense has been consistently porous, allowing five consecutive opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. Offensively, while Indiana fell short of its usual production last night, snapping a streak of 10 straight games with over 40 made field goals, the Pacers are primed for a bounce-back effort.

Brooklyn’s offensive struggles have been evident, but this matchup with Indiana provides a perfect opportunity for the Nets to find their rhythm. The Pacers' up-tempo style and defensive lapses should enable Brooklyn to put up points, especially considering the Nets have given up 40 or more made field goals in four of their last five contests.

This matchup sets up as a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

Take the 'over.' Projected score: Indiana 125, Brooklyn 119.

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Charlotte and Brooklyn at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday.

Charlotte has been involved in high-scoring games recently, but their offensive production remains among the league's worst, ranking 25th in points per game and 24th in offensive rating. The Hornets' struggles to generate consistent offense make it difficult to sustain the elevated scoring pace seen in their last two games. Meanwhile, Brooklyn has been playing at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, tied for 28th in pace, which naturally limits possessions and opportunities for high scores. The Nets are also coming off a game in which they failed to crack 110 points, highlighting their offensive inconsistencies.

Historically, matchups between these teams haven’t featured much offensive fireworks, with their most recent meeting last March totaling only 209 points. Given both teams' tendencies and their recent form, this game is more likely to follow a methodical pace and struggle to exceed the posted total.

Take the 'under.' Projected score: Brooklyn 108, Charlotte 103.

Northwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

In an interesting scheduling quirk, this will be the third meeting between the Timberwolves and Trail Blazers this season. They won't match up again until February. Both previous matchups have been relatively high-scoring, producing 'over' results. That includes last night's 122-108 stunner in favor of the Blazers. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair in tonight's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves still rank top-10 in the league in defensive rating this season, not to mention 18th in pace. Portland is an identical 28th in the NBA in both points per game and offensive rating this season. The Blazers actually got off just 84 field goal attempts in last night's 122-point outburst. They quite simply shot the lights out in that game including a blistering 18-for-32 from beyond the arc. I'm not expecting anything close to a repeat performance on Wednesday. Take the under. Projected score: Minnesota 107, Portland 102.

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Golden State at 10 pm ET on Tuesday.

Dallas enters this matchup following a high-scoring 122-120 loss in Denver, but the Mavericks typically play a more controlled, slower-paced game, ranking 18th in the league in pace. Defensively, they sit at 13th in the NBA in defensive rating, which has helped them keep games competitive even when their offense stalls. Against a Warriors team known for an explosive offense, Dallas will likely try to set a more deliberate tempo to limit transition opportunities for Golden State.

Golden State, meanwhile, has shown a consistent defensive effort this season, ranking in the top five in defensive rating. Although they’re coming off a high-scoring win over Oklahoma City, the Warriors are well-suited to locking down opponents, especially when playing at home. Expect both teams to focus on defense and see fewer possessions in what should be a relatively low-scoring affair.

Take the under. Projected score: Warriors 112, Mavericks 105.

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Phoenix at 8:10 pm ET on Sunday.

The Suns have been playing a methodical style of basketball this season, ranking 23rd in the NBA in pace. While they’ve been highly effective in their 8-1 start, much of their success has come from a balanced defensive approach and controlling the tempo, which lends itself to lower-scoring games. Both teams are also solid defensively, with Sacramento ranking in the top half of the league in defensive rating. Despite having an offense capable of putting up points, the Kings have shown the ability to grind out games with a more controlled pace against teams like Phoenix.

The most recent matchup between these two teams was a tightly contested 108-107 game last April, which produced a relatively low total given the offensive potential of both squads. With Phoenix likely to slow the game down and Sacramento also focusing on defensive execution, the pace of this game should be slower than many expect, especially considering both teams' recent tendencies. With the total for this game set lower, it's reasonable to expect another lower-scoring affair.

Take the 'under'.

Score prediction: Phoenix 113, Sacramento 108.

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

We got the result we wanted from the Cavaliers most recent game as they lit up the scoreboard in a high-scoring 134-110 home win over the Lakers on Wednesday. Cleveland currently ranks second in the NBA in points per game this season but I do think some regression is in order. With that being said, the Magic are going to be in tough without their best offensive player in Paolo Banchero as he's sidelined with a torn oblique. Note that the Magic have already been held to 41 made field goals or fewer in each of their first five games this season and things don't figure to get better with Banchero out of the lineup. There is reason to believe Orlando can tread water, however, as it is an excellent defensive team. It ranks top-five in defensive rating this season and has allowed just one of five opponents to connect on more than 41 field goals. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Thunder were involved in a relatively low-scoring game in Chicago last night (by today's NBA standards anyway). I expect a different story to unfold as they return home to host the Hawks on Sunday. The pace was absolutely there for a much higher-scoring contest last night as the Thunder got off a whopping 107 field goal attempts while the Bulls hoisted up 92. The problem was, neither team shot well from the field (Thunder - 42% and Bulls - 35%). The Hawks may not be on the same level of the Thunder but they do have the offense to push them on Sunday. Note that while Oklahoma City was on the floor last night, Atlanta has been idle since Friday. The Hawks are off to a 2-0 start, scoring 120 and 125 points in those two contests. Of note, Atlanta allowed the Nets and Hornets to get off 91 and 96 field goal attempts, respectively. If it hands out scoring opportunities like that again on Sunday, the Thunder figure to go off. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Timberwolves suffered a 110-103 defeat in their season-opener against the Lakers. It was an ugly offensive effort from a Minnesota team that should be able to light up the scoreboard this season. The T'Wolves shot 41% from the field including 32% from beyond the arc. For their part, the Lakers shot just 44% but Minnesota did allow them to get off a whopping 95 field goal attempts. Of note, Los Angeles connected on just 5-of-30 (17%) three-point attempts so the end result could have been far more lopsided. We'll call for Minnesota to bounce back offensively in its second game of the season on Thursday. The Kings figure to be a willing dance partner in what projects as an up-tempo affair. Sacramento is loaded offensively with Demar Derozan joining an already impressive group. The only question is whether there will be enough shots to go around but on this night, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. Take the over (10*).

Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Boston at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

I like the way this play sets up on Monday. The oddsmakers have been steadily dropping the total throughout this series and so far it hasn't done a thing to change the result as all four games have stayed 'under' the total. I believe they've made too much of an adjustment in advance of Game 5, however.

Note that the 'over' is a perfect 8-0 in Mavericks games with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points this season. I do think the Mavs figured a few things out in their Game 4 blowout victory at home as they finally pushed the pace and were rewarded with their highest scoring performance since Game 5 of the opening round against the Clippers.

I do think we'll see a big response from the Celtics offense after they were held to a putrid 29 made field goals in Game 4. Note that the 'over' is 13-4 with Boston seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season. The 'over' is also 3-0 with the Celtics coming off five straight 'under' results over the last three seasons, as is the case here.

Remember, the two regular season matchups between these two teams produced 229 and 248 total points. I still think this matchup can produce a track meet (where both teams participate) but we're obviously running out of runway in this series. Tonight is the night. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday.

The pace wasn't necessarily there in either game but both Games 1 and 2 made their way 'over' the total. I'll call for a different result as the scene shifts to Dallas for Game 3 on Sunday. The Mavericks completely stifled the Timberwolves offense in the first two games of this series. Here, it will be Minnesota's turn to rise to the occasion defensively as this is for all intents and purposes a must-win game. We know the T'Wolves are capable of taking their show on the road as they held the Nuggets to 35 or fewer made field goals in three of four games in Denver last round. I'm just not certain they can break through offensively against a Mavs squad that has now held nine of their last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Boston at 8 pm et on Thursday.

The Pacers have shot the lights out in three straight games, perhaps fuelled by adrenaline playing on just one day of rest following a seven-game series win over the Knicks in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. I think we'll see Indiana's offensive surge grind to a halt here but with that being said, I also don't envision the Celtics pushing the pace as much as they did in Tuesday's series-opener. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings between these two teams. The 'over' hasn't come through in four straight matchups since 1999! The 'under' is 4-3 in the Pacers seven games when coming off three straight ATS victories this season. The 'under' is also 5-4 with the Celtics coming off three consecutive ATS defeats this season. Take the under (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:30 pm et on Tuesday.

We've stayed on the sidelines from a totals perspective in this series so far, watching as most have gotten it wrong with the 'under' cashing in Games 1 and 2 in Denver and the 'over' coming through in Games 3 and 4 in Minnesota. I expect that trend to continue as the scene shifts back to Denver for a pivotal Game 5 matchup on Tuesday. Note that the 'under' is 18-8 with the Timberwolves seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more this season, as is the case here. The 'under' is also a long-term 24-20 with Minnesota coming off an upset loss including a 9-7 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 30-22 in the Nuggets last 52 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 10-5 record this season. When coming off consecutive road wins, Denver has seen the 'under' go 7-0 this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and New York at 8 pm et on Tuesday.

This series has been a bit backwards as far as what most might have expected totals-wise. The two games played in New York sailed 'over' the total while the two contests in Indiana stayed 'under' the number. Here, I think we're seeing an over-adjustment to the total following those consecutive low-scoring affairs. The Pacers continue to push the tempo having gotten off 88 or more field goal attempts in all four games in this series. Meanwhile, the Knicks are quite simply coming off one of their worst offensive showings of the season, knocking down just 30-of-89 field goal attempts in a blowout loss in Game 4. Note that the 'over' is 84-69 in the Pacers last 153 games as an underdog including a 24-18 mark this season. The 'over' is also 20-14 in Indiana's last 34 games with the total set in the 210's, as is the case here, including a 4-2 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 11-4 with the Knicks playing at home with the total set in the 210's this season. They haven't seen three straight games stay 'under' the total since a five-game streak from March 8th to 16th. Take the over (10*).

Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Oklahoma City and Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

This play sets up nicely after Game 2 of this series sailed 'over' the total with 229 points scored. Note that the Thunder have yet to post consecutive 'over' results in these playoffs (they last did so during a three-game streak from April 4th to 7th) while the Mavericks have posted a 4-4 o/u mark in the postseason. Both teams are in terrific defensive form with Oklahoma City having held 10 straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals and Dallas having limited eight straight and 22 of its last 26 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. The 'under' is 24-16 in Oklahoma City's last 40 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-3 record in that situation this season. Additionally, the 'under' is 35-27 over the last three seasons with the Thunder seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent including a 7-4 mark this season. The Mavs have seen the 'under' go 54-46 as a home favorite over the last three seasons including a 19-13 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 24-13 in Dallas' last 37 games following an upset win including an 11-1 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 9 pm et on Thursday.

This series has tightened up considerably in the last two games with just 189 and 194 points scored in regulation time (Game 5 went 'over' the total thanks to overtime). That's about what we would expect from two familiar, physical teams. Note that the 'under' is 18-13 in the Knicks last 31 games following an upset loss at home including a 5-1 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 62-54 with New York seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons including a 21-15 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 8-4 with the 76ers playing at home with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points over the last three seasons, which is the case here at the time of writing, including a 3-2 mark in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 6 pm et on Saturday.

Game 2 of this series found its way 'over' the total as the Heat staged a massive double-digit upset win. I look for a much different story to unfold as the scene shifts to Miami on Saturday. The pace certainly wouldn't lead you to believe we would have seen an 'over' result in Game 2. Miami made the most of its 75 field goal attempts while holding Boston to just 80. Keep in mind, Game 1 was played at a slow pace as well with the Celtics hoisting up 82 and the Heat 81. Note that the 'under' is 36-29 in Boston's last 65 games following an upset loss including a 9-7 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is 17-11 in Miami's last 28 games as a home underdog including a 6-4 record this season. Take the under (10*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Dallas at 8 pm et on Friday.

The first two games in this series both stayed 'under' the total. In fact, neither contest came close to toppling the total and as a result we're working with a much lower number in Game 3 on Friday. I see a catalyst for change at work here as the scene shifts to Dallas. I certainly don't expect either team to shoot as poorly as they did in Games 1 and 2. Note that the 'over' is 26-23 in the Clippers last 49 games after giving up 100 points or less in their previous contest including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'over' is also 25-21 with the Clips coming off a game where they scored 100 points or less including a 5-3 record this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 45-37 in the Mavericks last 82 contests as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. The two regular season meetings between these two teams here in Dallas totalled 270 and 231 points. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Milwaukee and Orlando at 1:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Magic have been trending in the wrong direction defensively, allowing three straight and four of their last five opponents to connect on at least 42 field goals. They've also been playing faster down the stretch, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in three of their last five contests. The Bucks can seemingly bait any opponent into an up-tempo affair, noting that they've allowed 89 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games. Even without Giannis in the lineup, they've been clicking offensively, making good on 41 or more field goals in six of their last eight contests. The 'over' is 32-21 in the Bucks last 53 games following a road loss including a 10-8 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 49-39 in Orlando's last 88 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 13-7 mark this season. Take the over (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

As is the case with many teams on Wednesday, both the Timberwolves and Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot here. I think this sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair between these Northwest Division rivals. Note that the Timberwolves have been the picture of consistency from a defensive standpoint this season. They're not getting run out of the gym by many opponents having held an incredible 17 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Over that stretch, only two opponents made good on more than 42. It's a similar story for the Nuggets but with even more dominance. They've limited seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. You would have to go back 15 games to find the last time they allowed an opponent to connect on more than 42. The 'under' is 13-10 in Minnesota's last 23 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here, including a 1-0 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 29-21 in the Nuggets last 15 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a 9-4 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday.

The 'under' has cashed in each of the Suns last three games and I look for a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Phoenix has held six straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three in a row to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back eight games to find the last time the Suns connected on more than 44 field goals. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. They've held four straight and six of their last seven foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 60-45 in the Clippers last 105 games with the total set in the 220's including a 19-12 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 61-57 in the Suns last 118 contests as a home favorite including an 18-16 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

These two teams were involved in a high-scoring affair the last time they met but that was back in November. Phoenix is trending slower right now having gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight and eight of its last 10 games. The Suns have also played some defense lately, limiting seven of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Of course the Timberwolves have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season and they enter this contest having held 11 straight and 13 of their last 14 foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Minnesota's offense exploded last time out but that was against a matador-like Raptors defense. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven straight contests. Note that the 'under' is 50-44 in Minnesota's last 94 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 15-5 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' holds a slight edge in all Suns home games recently, going 67-63 in their last 130 contests in the desert including a 19-18 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Washington at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

Miami is coming off a stunning 142-point explosion against Portland last time out. Keep in mind, the Heat are just one game removed from a stretch that saw them score 92 points or fewer in three of five games. The Wizards continue to see wild swings offensively. They were held to only 87 points in an 'upset' loss at home against the Pistons last time out. They've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last eight contests. However, on the flip side, Washington has held four of its last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Miami continues to play smothering defense (by today's NBA standards), limiting 10 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 39-35 in Miami's last 74 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent score 110 points or more, as is the case here, including a 10-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 10-3 in the Heat's last 13 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 4-0 record in that spot this season. The 'under' is 12-8 in Washington's last 20 contests following consecutive home defeats including an 8-4 mark this season. Off an upset loss at home, the Wiz have seen the 'under' go 15-3 in their last 18 games including 3-0 this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

These two teams found their way 'over' the total in the front half of this home-and-home set on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday in Charlotte. Note that the Cavaliers knocked down 46 field goals in that victory. They simply shot the lights out but were by no means volume-shooters, getting off just 86 field goal attempts. In fact, the Cavs have hoisted up 86 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight and eight of their last nine games. They haven't connected on more than 40 field goals in consecutive games since a three-game streak from February 25th to 28th. The Hornets have been far worse offensively in recent weeks. They've made good on 38 or fewer field goals in five straight games. They've have a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting just 82, 79, 84 and 80 field goals over their last four games. While Charlotte is by no means an elite defensive team, it has at least been able to limit its opponents scoring opportunities, holding eight of its last 10 foes to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Cavs last 14 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including an 8-0 record in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-18 in the Cavs last 43 contests following consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, including an 8-6 record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 22-11 in the Hornets last 33 games as a home underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 14-5 mark this season. Finally, the 'under' is 29-20 in Charlotte's last 49 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent including an 11-8 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The Bucks are well-positioned to go off offensively on Tuesday as they wrap up their three-game homestand against an injury-depleted Lakers squad. Milwaukee has connected on 51, 45, 43 and 49 field goals over its last four games. It has also been playing faster, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in three of its last four contests. That spells trouble for a matador-like Lakers defense that has allowed more than 40 made field goals in seven of its last eight games, yielding at least 96 field goal attempts in four straight games and 92 or more in 10 of its last 11 contests. I do think the Lakers offense can be brought along for the ride in this game so to speak. Keep in mind, the Bucks have a poor track record as home favorites, going 57-62 ATS in their last 119 games in that role including a 15-18 ATS record this season. Milwaukee has allowed three of its last four opponents to connect on at least 40 field goals. The 'over' is 54-33 in the Lakers last 87 contests as a road underdog including a 13-8 record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 27-25 in the Bucks last 52 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 13-9 mark this season. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday.

The Grizzlies are coming off a low-scoring victory in San Antonio on Friday but I look for a different story to unfold as they head to Denver to face the Nuggets on Monday. Note that Memphis has been trending toward higher-scoring affairs on its current road trip having hoisted up 92 and 96 field goal attempts in regulation time in two of three contests. Denver has actually proven vulnerable defensively, or at least more than usual, in recent contests allowing three of its last four foes to connect on at least 42 field goals. Speaking of vulnerability at the defensive end of the floor, Memphis has allowed 44 or more made field goals in regulation time in four of its last seven games. The Nuggets continue to thrive offensively having connected on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 16 games and 45 or more nine times over that stretch. Note that the 'over' is 37-33 in Memphis' last 70 games as a road underdog including a 17-13 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 10-6 in the Nuggets last 16 home games with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including a 3-2 record in that spot this season. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Indiana and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Pacers aren't the same team they were earlier in the season, playing at a slower pace and doing a much better job defensively. They check in with the 'under' having cashed in 11 of their last 14 games and we'll go that way again as they continue their road trip in San Francisco on Friday. Note that Indiana has held three straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only six of its last 17 opponents have managed to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. The Warriors have shot incredibly well over the last three games but are likely to face some resistance here. On the flip side, they've held five of their last six and 20 of their last 25 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 26-21 in the Pacers last 47 games as a road underdog of six points or less including an 8-6 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-6 in the Warriors last 15 contests following an ATS win as a double-digit favorite, as is the case here, including a perfect 2-0 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday.

Steph Curry is expected to return for the Warriors on Saturday and they could use the offensive boost as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last 11 games. They'll run into a Lakers team that has shown signs of life defensively recently, limiting three straight and four of their last five foes to 46 or fewer made field goals (that's actually progress given the way they had been playing). While the Lakers have been shooting well themselves, they're playing with a relatively small margin for error having gotten off 83 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five contests. Meanwhile, Golden State has limited the opposition to 44 or fewer made field goals in six of its last eight games. Note that the 'under' is 27-16 in Golden State's last 43 games played on two days' rest including a 6-3 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-17 in the Lakers last 37 contests played in the same situation including a 7-4 record this season. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Brooklyn and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This game pits two teams that have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately. The Nets have been held to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in four of their last five games. You would have to go back seven contests to find the last time they connected on more than 42 field goals. In fact, they've been limited to 42 or fewer made field goals in 14 of their last 17 games. They don't figure to get any sort of break here as the Magic, while struggling to find wins lately, have continued to play tough defense. Orlando checks in having held an incredible seven straight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals and 10 of its last 11 to 41 or fewer. The Magic have allowed more than 80 field goal attempts just twice in their last seven contests. On the flip side, Orlando has knocked down 44 or fewer field goals in 10 straight and 12 of its last 13 games overall. Last time out the Magic broke a streak of six straight games in which they had hoisted up 81 or fewer field goal attempts. The 'under' is 66-45 in Brooklyn's last 111 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 21-12 record in that situation this season. The Nets have also seen the 'under' go 16-10 in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road win including a 3-1 mark in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 9-5 in the Magic's last 14 contests with the total set between 200 and 209.5 points including a perfect 3-0 record this season. Finally, the 'under' is 44-35 in Orlando's last 79 games following consecutive losses including an 8-4 mark this season. Take the under (10*).

Southeast Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Miami at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

The Heat enter this game off consecutive 'under' results but that's not of major concern noting they've had five previous 'under' streaks last longer. While Miami has dropped back-to-back games it remains in excellent form defensively. The Heat have held an incredible 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in three straight and six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Miami isn't likely to push the pace, even against a matador-like Wizards defense. the Heat have hoisted up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 straight and 19 of their last 22 games. They've connected on more than 42 field goals just once in their last six contests. Note that the 'under' is 45-38 in Washington's last 83 games played with double-revenge including a 17-15 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 27-24 in Miami's last 51 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher including a 12-9 record in that spot this season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last two games while the Mavericks are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold as these non-conference foes match up on Thursday in Dallas. Miami has held an incredible 13 of its last 14 opponents to 42 made field goals or less. In fact, the Heat have limited three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 successful field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to get off 90 or more field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Heat have connected on at least 46 field goals just twice since December 6th. They've gone eight straight games without hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts. We know what the Mavs are all about and that's offense. With that said, they've made good on 45 of fewer field goals in three straight and five of their last seven contests. On the flip side, Dallas has struggled defensively this season. However, it has generally bounced back following exceptionally poor performances and that's the situation it is in on Thursday after allowing Indiana to make good on 50 field goals last time out. On five previous occasions this season, the Mavs have yielded at least 50 made field goals and in their next contest they've held the opposition to an average of just 43.6 with the 'under' going 3-2. Note that the 'under' is 30-21 in the Heat's last 51 road games with the total set at 220 points or higher and 19-14 in their last 33 contests following consecutive home wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 65-54 with the Mavs playing at home and 9-7 in their last 16 contests after allowing 135 points or more in their previous game. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Saturday.

I expect the Rockets slumping offense to bust out in a big way in Saturday's rematch against the Suns in Phoenix (the Suns prevailed 110-105 on Thursday). Phoenix is playing with fire (no pun intended) defensively right now as it has allowed an incredible 12 straight and 14 of its last 15 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. It was fortunate that the Rockets shooting woes continued on Thursday as Houston actually got off a whopping 99 field goal attempts. The Rockets certainly haven't been trigger-shy lately, getting off 93, 93, 95 and 99 field goal attempts over their last four contests. I do think it's only a matter of time before Houston's offense takes off again, noting that it recently connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 10 games from January 20th to February 6th. On the flip side, the Suns are just shy of double-digit favorites again on Saturday. They didn't need to be great offensively to prevail in the front half of this two-game set and certainly weren't, making good on just 36-of-89 field goal attempts. They've generally bounced back from subpar shooting nights, connecting on 46, 40 and 44 field goals in their last three games following a sub-40 made field goal performance. Note that the 'over' is 12-7 in the Rockets last 19 contests after scoring 105 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 'over' result the only prevous time that situation came up this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 43-34 in the Suns last 77 games after allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest including a 6-2 record in that situation this season. We've now seen two straight meetings in this series stay 'under' the total. You would have to go back to 2018 to find the last time we saw a three-game 'under' streak between these two teams. Take the over (10*).

Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday.

Opponents are walking all over the Lakers right now, getting off 93 or more field goal attempts in each of their last five and 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Clippers should be salivating at the opportunity for an offensive breakout here after being held to 42 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven games. Paul George won't be in the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday but I still expect them to thrive offensively against a Lakers squad that has been lit up for 44 or more made field goals in 12 of its last 15 games. On the flip side, the Lakers have connected on more than 40 field goals in eight straight games and 47 or more in five of those contests. The Clippers have surprisingly been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing four straight and 12 of their last 16 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. Note that the 'over' is 35-17 in the Lakers last 52 road games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a crisp 15-3 mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 32-25 in the Clippers last 57 contests following an upset loss against a division opponent, as is the case here, including a 4-1 record in that situation over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday.

The Pistons have seen the 'under' cash in each of their last five games while the Knicks ride a two-game 'under' streak into Monday's contest. Both teams are coming off losses on Saturday with Detroit falling on a last-second shot against Orlando and New York suffering a blowout loss at the hands of Boston. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Monday at the Garden. Detroit has shot about as well as you could expect in two games since the All-Star break, making good on 47 and 43 field goals in losses against the Pacers and Magic. It still scored 'only' 115 and 109 points in those two contests. Note that the Pistons haven't produced 109 or more points in three straight games since January 28th to February 2nd. On the flip side, Detroit has limited five straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Knicks don't figure to test that streak, noting that they've hoisted up just 84, 79 and 82 field goal attempts in their last three contests. In fact, they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 22 of their last 28 games. On the flip side, the Knicks have held an incredible eight straight opponents to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. While the opposition has shot well against New York in recent weeks, I believe Detroit is better-suited for volume-shooting success but I don't see it accomplishing that against the slow-paced Knicks on Monday. Note that the 'under' is 26-20 in the Pistons last 46 games following five straight 'under' results and 10-7 in their last 17 contests after suffering a loss by three points or less, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 40-24 in New York's last 64 games following consecutive 'under' results including a 14-6 mark in that situation this season. The 'under' is also 25-22 in the Knicks last 47 contests following a double-digit loss including a 5-4 record in that situation this season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Milwaukee and Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

This is undoubtedly a game the Bucks have had circled on their calendar since getting throttled 129-105 on their home floor on February 8th. The Timberwolves shot the lights out in that game but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here. While the Bucks have struggled to find the win column lately, they've continued to do a good job of limiting opposing offenses, holding six of their last eight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Minnesota isn't a team that's going to push the pace on them, noting the T'Wolves have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 18 games. On the flip side, you'd be hard-pressed to find a team that was as locked-in defensively as the T'Wolves prior to the All-Star break. They enter this game having limited four straight and an incredible 19 of their last 25 opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, Minnesota is allowing just 37 made field goals per contest at home this season. The 'over' has now cashed in consecutive meetings in this series but we haven't seen three straight 'over' results since way back in 2006. The 'under' is 28-14 in Milwaukee's last 42 games as a road underdog and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 32-19 in the T'Wolves last 51 home contests with the total set between 220 and 229.5 and 7-3 in their last 10 games played on three or more days' rest. Take the under (10*).

Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams went into the All-Star break off 'over' results but I expect a different story to unfold as they match up for the fourth time this season on Thursday in New Orleans. Note that the three previous meetings in this series this season totalled just 205, 210 and 209 points. The Rockets had a recent stretch where they connected on 50 or more field goals in six of 11 games but have since cooled off, making good on 44 or fewer field goals in four straight contests prior to the break. Defensively, Houston has quietly been locked-in, limiting nine of its last 11 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While the Rockets have continued to give up their share of scoring opportunities, the Pelicans don't figure to push the pace, noting that New Orleans has hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games. The Pelicans did make good on 50 field goals in their most recent game against the lowly Wizards but have been held to 46 or fewer made field goals in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Like the Rockets, the Pelicans have been terrific defensively in recent weeks, holding seven of their last nine foes to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and a rock-steady 27 of their last 32 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 51-44 in the Rockets last 95 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent including a 10-4 mark this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 60-40 in New Orleans' last 100 contests following an 'over' result including 19-6 this season. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday.

I think this game has the potential to have an 'old school' feel as the Timberwolves take the court for the first time since last Thursday while the Clippers wrap up a three-game homestand that has seen them go 0-2 ATS so far. Minnesota's most recent game found its way 'over' the total thanks to a lights out shooting performance in Milwaukee. The pace wasn't necessarily there as the T'Wolves hoisted up 87 field goal attempts in a 129-105 rout. Keep in mind, Minnesota has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 11 of its last 12 games and averages just 86 per game on the road this season. Also note that the T'Wolves have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in six of their last nine contests. On the flip side, Minnesota is locked-in defensively having held eight of its last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals in regulation time. The Clippers have had a tough enough time just getting shots off, let alone knocking them down lately. They've gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in three of their last four games. You would have to go back six contests to find the last time they hoisted up more than 89 field goal attempts. They've been held to 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games. Los Angeles is coming off an uncharacteristically bad defensive effort against Detroit on Saturday. Note that the Clippers have allowed three of their last four foes to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. I do think the fact that Minnesota hasn't played since Thursday and that it plays at a relatively slow pace works in Los Angeles' favor here. Keep in mind, the Clips have limited the opposition to just 41 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that the 'under' is 6-3 in Minnesota's last nine games played on three or more days' rest and 24-21 in its last 45 contests following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-15 in Los Angeles' last 35 games following a victory by six points or less and 29-20 in its last 49 home games with the total set between 220 and 229.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

These two teams just met back on January 10th in Atlanta and produced a total of 271 points (aided by an overtime period). I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair in Friday's rematch. The Hawks are on a scoring tear right now. They've connected on 51, 44, 53, 49, 55 (overtime game against Golden State), 51 and 43 field goals over their last seven contests. They've also hoisted up at least 93 field goal attempts in 10 straight games. The 76ers don't figure to stand in their way on Friday. Philadelphia has sagged defensively in the absence of Joel Embiid, allowing six straight and eight of their last nine opponents to knock down at least 42 field goals. On the flip side, I do think it's only a matter of time before the Sixers shots start falling. They've gotten off 93 or more field goal attempts in four straight games, making good on 47, 44, 40 and 41 over that stretch. The door is wide open for a breakout performance here, noting that Atlanta has allowed five straight and seven of its last eight opponents to connect on at least 47 field goals. Note that the 'over' is 22-18 in the Hawks last 40 games as a road favorite. The 'over' is also 16-11 in the Sixers last 27 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

Sacramento has posted consecutive 'over' results as it wraps up its long seven-game road trip on Monday in Cleveland. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings have been ultra-efficient offensively but it's not as if they've been playing at a break-neck pace. They check in having connected on 43 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. Here they'll run into a Cavaliers squad that is locked-in defensively and has been for weeks. Cleveland has held an incredible nine of its last 11 opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Offensively, the Cavs have certainly been good but aren't exactly blowing the doors off the opposition, making good on 46 or fewer field goals in 11 of their last 13 contests. The Kings, while not known for their defensive prowess, have been terrific at that end of the floor as well, limiting four of their last five foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 38-25 in the Kings last 63 games as a road underdog and 21-12 in their last 33 contests as a road underdog of six points or less. The 'under' is also a modest 26-24 in their last 50 games after consecutive 'over' results. Meanwhile, the Cavs have seen the 'under' go 12-6 in their last 18 contests with the total set at 230 points or higher. The 'under' is also 19-12 in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday.

The Clippers may be known for their defensive prowess but it's been their offense that has paced them to 30+ wins this season. Los Angeles enters this game on a tear offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in eight of their last 11 games. The Clips are also playing at a faster pace than we've been accustomed to seeing, hoisting up 95 or more field goal attempts in three of the first four games on their current road trip. They should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities on Friday as the Pistons have allowed 21 of their last 28 opponents to connect on at least 44 field goals. That's not to mention the fact that eight of their last 11 foes have gotten off 90+ field goal attempts. The question is whether Detroit can produce enough to help this total along. I believe it can. Note that the Pistons have made good on 43 or more field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They're catching the Clips at the right time as they've allowed six of their last seven foes to knock down at least 42 field goals and haven't exactly been smothering in nature, giving up 90+ field goal attempts in five of their last six contests. Note that the 'over' is 33-25 in the Clippers last 58 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The 'over' is also 27-22 in Detroit's last 49 contests after posting consecutive ATS victories. Take the over (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New York at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday.

The 'under' is an incredible 13-2 in the Knicks last 15 games and I look for that trend to continue as they return home to host the Jazz on Tuesday. Utah got stomped by the Nets in Brooklyn last night. The Jazz are by no means playing good defensive basketball right now but I do think they get a bit of a reprieve in this back-to-back spot. Note that New York, while red hot off seven straight wins, has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in 16 of its last 18 games. It doesn't generally look to push the pace having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 15 straight games entering Tuesday's contest. On the flip side, the Knicks are as locked-in defensively as any team right now having held nine straight and 14 of their last 15 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 10-4 in the Jazz's last 14 games following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 6-1 in Utah's last seven contests after consecutive games totalling 245 points or more. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 26-19 in the Knicks last 45 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 7-4 in their last 11 contests after a road win by 20 points or more. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Miami at 7:30 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams are coming off a string of relatively low-scoring contests. Boston enters riding a five-game 'under' streak while Miami has seen each of its last seven contests stay 'under' the total. I look for a different story to unfold on Thursday, however. The Heat continue to limit opposing offenses although part of that has been as a result of the opposition playing with a considerable lead and controlling the tempo. Boston has been fairly matchup-proof in that regard. The Celtics prefer to push the pace, having hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in 17 of their last 21 games. On the flip side, Boston's opponents have certainly gotten their fair share of scoring opportunities as the C's have allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 14 of their last 15 games. Only twice over the last three seasons has Boston produced five straight 'under' results and on both previous occasions, the 'over' cashed in the next game. Also note that the 'over' is 39-34 in the Celtics last 73 games following a road win, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 40-32 in the Heat's last 72 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. The 'over' is also 3-1 in Miami's last four games after four straight losses. Take the over (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Lebron James is expected to miss Tuesday's game for the Lakers as they try to secure a third straight win over the rival Clippers this season. While the Lakers have found recent success it hasn't been on the strength of their defensive play. They've allowed eight straight opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts with six of their last seven foes connecting on at least 42 field goals. The Clippers figure to push them here, noting Los Angeles has knocked down 47 or more field goals in four of its last six contests. On the flip side, despite generally limiting the tempo of their opposition, the Clippers have allowed four of their last five opponents to make good on more than 40 field goals. This will undoubtedly be a game the Clips have circled on their calendar not only due to the fact that they've dropped both previous meetings this season but also after they felt they let the Lakers off the hook in the most recent matchup on January 7th. In that contest, the Clips hoisted up 91 field goal attempts but connected on only 36 of them. Incredibly, that's one of only two times they've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in their last 25 contests. Take the over (10*).

Southeast Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Orlando at 6:10 pm et on Sunday.

If the Magic are going to shake out of their extended funk it's likely going to have to come on the strength of their defense. They've clearly lost their mojo offensively, making good on fewer than 40 field goals in six straight games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time they connected on more than 44 field goals. The good news is, Orlando continues to play tough defense having held seven straight opponents to 43 or fewer field goals. Miami is in a similar situation as it has connected on 41 or fewer field goals in an incredible 11 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. Also in a similar vein to the Magic, the Heat have held four of their last five foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that the 'under' is 21-11 in Orlando's last 32 games following a double-digit home loss, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 11-4 in the Magic's last 15 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, which is also the situation against the Heat on Sunday. Miami has seen the 'under' go 6-2 in its last eight games following an upset loss against a divisional opponent. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Wednesday.

The Warriors were embarrassed on their home floor against the Raptors on Sunday, allowing 133 points as they suffered their fifth loss in their last seven games. I expect them to tighten the screws against a familiar opponent on Wednesday as they host the red hot Pelicans. Note that Golden State has held New Orleans to 42 or fewer made field goals in seven of eight meetings going back to the start of the 21-22 season. The Pelicans are quietly as locked-in as it gets defensively right now. They've allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 14 straight games. They've also held seven of their last 10 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Warriors have been a mixed bag offensively and check in averaging just 41-of-90 shooting at home this season. While the 'over' did cash in the first meeting between these two teams this season, we haven't seen consecutive matchups go 'over' the total since the 2018-19 season. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Tuesday.

While few are paying much attention, the Raptors have gone on an offensive tear lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in six of their last eight games with the 'over' cashing at a 6-2 clip over that stretch. The Lakers were fortunate to catch the Clippers on an off shooting night on Sunday as they allowed 91 field goal attempts but the Clips could only make good on 36 of them. While the Lakers have generally been able to slow down the opposition this season, we've seen a bit of a sputter lately as two of their last three foes have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts. The Raptors don't always play fast but they're definitely making the most of their scoring opportunities right now and I like the rhythm they're in having played every second night going back to December 30th. On the flip side, you would have to go back 11 games to find the last time Toronto held an opponent to fewer than 40 made field goals. Of their last 10 opponents, seven have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Their last two foes have reached the 100 mark in terms of field goal attempts. For the Lakers, this will be their fourth straight home game and I expect them to come out with plenty of energy following an off day on Monday. While Sunday's game against the Clippers did stay 'under' the total, the Lakers haven't produced consecutive 'under' results since a four-game streak from December 2nd to 9th. Take the over (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

This will be the fourth meeting already this season between these two teams and we're inexplicably working with the highest total of the bunch. It is worth noting the 'over' has cashed in all three previous matchups this season. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday. The Timberwolves were already one of the slowest paced teams in the league this season but they've taken it to another level lately, hoisting up an unheard of (by today's NBA standards) 76 field goal attempts or fewer in each of their last four games. They've also held four of their last five opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Pelicans have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven games. On the flip side they've held the opposition to just 35, 39, 36, 39 and 35 made field goals over their last five contests. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 45-28 with the Pelicans checking in as a road underdog. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone 35-21 in the Timberwolves last 56 home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. Take the under (10*).

Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Thursday.

The Heat saw their most recent game on Christmas Night sneak 'over' the total as they outlasted the 76ers on their home floor. Note that Miami has still held nine of its last 10 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, you would have to go back five games to find the last time the Heat connected on more than 41 field goals. The 'under' is 17-6 in the Warriors last 23 home games when playing on two of more days' rest, as is the case here. They covered but lost 120-114 in Denver on Christmas. Golden State has held seven of its last eight opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals and its last two foes to just 38 and 40 made field goals. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday.

The Rockets were involved in a relatively high-scoring game last night but what else would you expect against the Pacers. Houston ended up hoisting up an uncharacteristic 97 field goal attempts in that game, largely due to the fact it was playing from behind much of the way. I expect a different game script to unfold against the struggling Suns on Wednesday. While Phoenix has had a tough time winning games it has continued to limit its opponents' opportunities, allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five of its last six and nine of its last 14 games. On the flip side, the Suns have knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 14 of their last 15 contests. Houston limited Indiana to only 82 field goal attempts last night but the Pacers quite simply shot the lights out, as it often does. The Rockets have been incredibly stingy at home this season, holding the opposition to an average of just 36-of-86 shooting from the field. Houston has seen the 'under' cash in 17 of its last 23 games as a home underdog of six points or less. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Heat's four-game 'over' streak came to an end last time out against Atlanta while Philadelphia enters Monday's contest riding a two-game 'over' streak. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair than most in this Christmas Night matchup. Note that the 76ers remain an elite defensive team. They've held eight straight and 11 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals - that's an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. Miami can also hold its own defensively having allowed 42 or fewer made field goals in four straight and eight of its last nine games. Add in the fact that the Heat have been scuffing their heels offensively, knocking down just 41, 40 and 40 field goals over their last three contests but check into this one in a near pk'em range and you can understand why I'm favoring the 'under' in Miami on Monday. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

On paper, this sets up as a track meet as both teams are brimming with offensive talent. However, a closer look leads me to believe we're in for a lower-scoring affair than most are anticipating. Note that Phoenix generally plays at a fairly methodical pace (by today's NBA standards). Last time out, the Suns did hoist up 94 field goal attempts as they were trying to rally against the Blazers in an eventual defeat. Prior to that, Phoenix had gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in eight straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to play well defensively despite having little to show for it in the win column. Phoenix has held seven of its last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Kings obviously pose a stiff challenge but the Suns did hold them to 114 points on 42-of-92 shooting in their most recent meeting on December 8th. Sacramento clearly got caught looking past an undermanned Celtics team that was playing the second of back-to-backs two nights ago, allowing Boston to knock down a whopping 51 field goals in the blowout loss. Prior to that, the Kings had held six straight foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. The fact that Sacramento took the first matchup between these teams this season is notable as the 'under' is 26-14 in the Suns last 40 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday.

The Bulls are coming off consecutive high-scoring games against the Heat in Miami but I look for a different story to unfold as they continue their road trip in Philadelphia on Monday. Note that Chicago still held Miami to just 83 field goal attempts last time out. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out. The Bulls have limited five straight opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The 76ers are in terrific defensive form right now having held four straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. While they are currently red hot offensively, it's worth noting that Chicago had their number last season, limiting them to 40 or fewer made field goals in all four matchups. The 'under' is 13-3 in the 76ers last 16 games when coming off four straight victories by 10 points or more, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.

The Bulls have incredibly held 24 of their 26 opponents to 90 field goal attempts or less this season. That's quite an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The first game of this two-game set in Miami was actually high-scoring, resulting in 240 total points. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday. The Bulls have been performing well offensively in Zach LaVine's absence. They knocked down 45 field goals in Thursday's win over the Heat. With that being said, they're just one game removed from connecting on only 36 field goals in Denver. The Heat have been held to exactly 37 made field goals in three of their last four contests. They're unlikely to push the pace against the Bulls, noting they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 19 of their last 20 games. Thursday's game snapped a streak of five straight contests in which Miami had held the opposition to 87 FG attempts or fewer. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' is 26-13 in the Bulls last 39 road games following an 'over' result. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Thursday.

I'll admit my first reaction was to grab the points with the Timberwolves in this game as they look to bounce back following Monday's lopsided defeat in New Orleans. After taking a deeper look, I think the better play is on the 'under' on Thursday night in Dallas. Minnesota has really clamped down defensively in recent games, holding six of its last seven opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In three meetings with the Mavericks last season, the T'Wolves held them to just 84, 75 and 76 field goal attempts. Dallas is no better-suited to take advantage of Minnesota here with a number of key contributors either sidelined or banged-up. I do like the fact that both teams come in rested with the T'Wolves idle since Monday and the Mavs having last played on Tuesday here at home against the Lakers. While Minnesota has been rolling, it hasn't necessarily been blowing the doors off the opposition, knocking down 44 or fewer field goals in 15 consecutive games. While the 'over' has gone 8-3 in its 11 road games this season, those contests have averaged just 226.6 total points. Take the under (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

I just don't see the sort of track meet developing that most are expecting as the Suns and Lakers do battle in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Tuesday. The Lakers have already taken the first two meetings between these teams this season and if the Suns want to change the outcome here, they'll likely have to win ugly, noting they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in five of their last six games. The good news is, the Lakers don't figure to really push the pace. They've hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in an incredible 18 straight games. They've managed to connect on more than 40 field goals just once in their last four contests and that came against the hapless Pistons. Note that the 'under' is a long-term 123-93 in Lakers home games with the total set at 220 points or higher. The 'under' is also a long-term 33-23 with the Suns seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Friday.

The Nuggets have reeled off five straight 'under' results to open the season but I think we have a catalyst for change in play as they come off their first defeat of the campaign in Minnesota two nights ago. Denver had an off night shooting the basketball against the T'Wolves, knocking down just 38-of-96 field goal attempts. Prior to that, the Nuggets had made good on more than 40 field goals in all four games, topping out at a whopping 53 made field goals in a win in Oklahoma City. On the flip side, Denver has been terrific defensively but does figure to get tested here. Dallas has knocked down 47, 44 and 42 field goals in its first three games before being held to just 37 in a slow-paced game against the Bulls. Keep in mind, the Mavericks still scored 114 points in that most recent contest and a slower-paced affair was to be expected against Chicago. Defensively, the Mavs warts have yet to be exposed thanks to their strong offensive production. They've actually allowed all four opponents to make good on 42 or more field goals this season and the Nuggets ripped them for a blistering 88-of-162 (54.3%) shooting in two meetings in Denver last season. Take the over (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Phoenix and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday.

Both of these teams saw their respective season openers stay 'under' the total but I expect a different story to unfold as the Suns and Lakers match up in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Suns actually allowed Golden State to get off a whopping 101 field goal attempts on Tuesday but the Warriors couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 36 of those attempts in a four-point loss. Meanwhile, Phoenix played with pace (95 field goal attempts) and shot reasonably well (42 made field goals), even with key offseason acquisition Bradley Beal sidelined (he's questionable to play on Thursday as well). The Lakers limited Denver to just 91 FG attempts on Tuesday but the Nuggets had little trouble against L.A.'s sieve-like defense, connecting on 48 of those shot attempts. I did come away impressed with the Lakers ability to at least match the Nuggets tempo (91 FG attempts). They simply had an off night shooting - something I expect them to rectify in their home-opener on Thursday. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 17-5 with the Suns coming off a victory over a division opponent over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 233.5 points in that situation. Take the over (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday.

This series has taken a low-scoring tone for the most part with three of the first four games staying 'under' the total. As I've noted in my analysis of the last two contests, Miami hasn't been able to break through the offensive ceiling against Denver this season, making good on 39, 39, 39, 38, 34 and 35 field goals in six matchups. On the flip side, the Heat have held an incredible 20 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. In this series, Miami has limited Denver to 40, 39, 41 and 39 made field goals. There are still plenty of bettors chasing the 'over' in this series and as a result the oddsmakers can only set this number so low. It's not low enough in my opinion, noting that the 'under' is 16-7 with the Heat coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season and 14-6 with the Nuggets following five consecutive games in which they shot 47% or better from the field, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday.

While the Heat did outlast the Nuggets 111-108 in Game 2 of this series, they still failed to break through the offensive ceiling, connecting on only 38 field goals in another relatively slow-paced affair. Note that Miami has now knocked down 39, 39, 39 and 38 field goals in four meetings with the Nuggets this season. On the flip side, the Heat have now held an incredible 18 straight opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. They've limited six straight and 10 of their last 11 foes to 84 or fewer field goal attempts. The Heat exploded for 17 made three-pointers in Game 2 but I'm not anticipating a repeat performance here, noting that the Nuggets have held opponents to an average of 12 made threes per contest on the road this season. The 'under' is 20-9 with Denver coming off consecutive games in which it shot 50% or better from the field, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' has gone a long-term 129-96 with the Heat playing at home on two or more days' rest, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Miami at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 3 ultimately sailed 'over' the total thanks in large part to the lopsided nature of that contest. The game was actually well on track to stay 'under' the total until the floodgates opened in the final eight minutes or so of the fourth quarter. While most expect the Celtics to roll over on Tuesday, I do think we'll see them show some fight and that ultimately projects to a much tighter affair than we saw on Sunday. While the Heat did allow 98 field goal attempts in Sunday's victory, the Celtics could only connect on 39 of them. On the flip side, Miami shot the lights out, making good on 46-of-81 field goal attempts. I would anticipate seeing a similar tempo from the Heat here, noting that they've gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts in 12 of their last 15 contests. While the Celtics haven't lived up to expectations defensively this season, and allowed 46 made field goals in Game 3 of this series on Sunday, it is worth noting that they haven't allowed 46 or more successful FG attempts in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd and that was the only occasion in which they did all season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 103-64 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. The 'under' is also 205-159 with Miami checking in off a win by 15 points or more. Take the under (10*).

Conference Finals Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Denver at 8:30 pm et on Thursday.

These two teams went off for 258 combined points in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday. In my analysis prior to that contest I noted that the Lakers offensive ceiling would be considerably higher against the Nuggets (or had proven to be) than it was against the Warriors last round, with a similar floor. Los Angeles essentially hit that ceiling, or came awfully close, in the series-opener. In Game 2, I anticipate some regression with the Lakers likely falling closer to that typical 'floor' production level in this particular matchup. By that I mean Los Angeles had made good on 41 or fewer field goals in two of four regular season meetings in this series. The Lakers pace in Game 1 certainly wasn't indicative of the 126 points they ended up scoring as they actually got off only 84 field goal attempts in the contest. In fact, the Nuggets have now held four straight and 10 of their last 13 opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. The Lakers, meanwhile, haven't gotten off more than 87 field goal attempts in a game since Game 2 against the Warriors last round (they scored a series-low 100 points in that contest). While the Nuggets hoisted up 91 FG attempts on Tuesday that type of up-tempo performance has been the exception rather than the rule. Generally-speaking, it's not easy to speed up Denver. To find the last time the Nuggets got off 90 or more FG attempts in consecutive games you would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd and both of those contests actually stayed 'under' the total with Denver scoring just 93 and 112 points. After shooting the lights out in consecutive games going back to the series-clincher against the Suns last round, I'm anticipating some regression from the Nuggets here offensively. Keep in mind, in four regular season meetings between these two teams, Denver knocked down 'only' 42, 41, 39 and 46 field goals, scoring 122 points in the latter outlier performance in which they got off a whopping 99 FG attempts in early January (that game still totalled 'only' 231 points). Take the under (10*). Finally, we'll note that while the Lakers average 116.6 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 114.9 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS wins (22-game sample size), as is the case here. The Nuggets average 116.0 ppg this season with that scoring average dropping to 113.7 ppg when coming off three or more consecutive wins, which is also the situation here. Take the under (10*).

Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Friday.

We're finally seeing a significant adjustment made to the total in this series, even after Game 5 ended up sneaking 'over' the closing number. I still feel Friday's total will prove too high. The Warriors went off offensively, knocking down 47-of-92 field goal attempts in Wednesday's victory. That was at home. They've made good on 43 or fewer field goals in five of their six playoff road games. On a similar note, the Lakers have now held their opponents to 36, 35, 42 (overtime game), 29, 36 and 40 made field goals in seven home playoff games (including the Play-In Tournament game against Minnesota). As I've mentioned throughout this series, while Los Angeles does have a fairly solid floor in terms of offensive production against the Warriors, it doesn't have a particularly high ceiling, topping out at 43 made field goals in nine matchups going back to the start of the regular season. Both teams are dealing with injury issues, as is often the case at this stage of the playoffs, with the Warriors listing Andrew Wiggins as questionable to play due to a rib injury and Anthony Davis probable after a possible concussion. I would anticipate both playing on Friday but certainly Wiggins - a key offensive contributor for the Warriors - won't be 100% healthy. As I've also noted throughout this series, the Warriors are on quite a defensive run having held 21 of their last 22 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals with the 'under' going 12-10 over that stretch. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' is a long-term 36-17 with Golden State playing on the road off a double-digit win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the under (10*).

Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Phoenix at 8 pm et on Sunday.

It seems like the oddsmakers are playing 'catch-up' with the totals in this series, making the usual adjustments after the fact but ultimately overreacting in hindsight (as is often the case). Game 1 saw 232 total points so the total was adjusted a couple of points higher for Game 2, which ended up reaching only 184 points. For Game 3, the total was adjusted considerably lower only for that contest to sail 'over' with 235 total points. Here, we're again working with a higher posted total and I believe it will prove too high. The Nuggets were baited into a much faster-paced affair than they probably would have liked in Game 3, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts themselves while allowing the Suns to get off 95. As we anticipated, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant relished the opportunity to play 'hero ball' down 2-0 in the series and with most counting them out with Chris Paul sidelined. The pair combined to knock down 32 field goals and score a whopping 86 points in the victory. I'm confident we'll see the Nuggets make the necessary adjustments here, noting that they had held 10 straight and an incredible 19 of their last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals prior to Phoenix knocking down 48 in that contest. As I mentioned, Denver got off 97 FG attempts in Friday's loss. You would have to go back to March 31st and April 2nd to find the last time it hoisted up more than 90 FG attempts in consecutive games though, and those previous two contests still totalled only 193 and 222 points. Phoenix didn't look good defensively in Game 1 of this series but has held Denver to just 36 and 43 made field goals in two games since. Note that the Suns have limited 30 of their last 37 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. While Phoenix went off in Game 3, it had previously been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in five consecutive meetings in this series. Take the under (10*).

Eastern Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Boston at 8 pm et on Wednesday.

Game 1 of this series sailed 'over' the total witb both teams shooting the lights out in a 119-115 76ers victory in Boston. I expect a much different story to unfold on Wednesday. The pace certainly didn't dictate such a high-scoring affair in the series-opener. Philadelphia hoisted up 89 field goal attempts while Boston got off just 75 in a stunning home defeat. Note that the 76ers knocked down 45 field goals - just the fourth time in their last 17 games that they managed to connect on more than 42 field goals. On the flip side, the 44 made field goals they allowed served as the first time in six games they yielded 40 or more successful field goal attempts. In fact, Philadelphia has still limited 18 of its last 23 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Boston hasn't been as stout defensively as we've become accustomed to seeing in these playoffs, I am confident it can bounce back from Monday's poor showing in Game 2. Note that the Celtics have held 18 of their last 21 opponents to 45 or fewer made field goals - not a bad high-water mark in that department when you consider they've allowed 89 or more FG attempts in 10 straight and 14 of their last 15 contests. As I've noted previously in these playoffs, the C's have been yielding too many scoring opportunities but the 76ers are unlikely to continue to push the pace the way they did in Game 1, noting they've hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 13 of their last 16 games and average just 84 FG attempts per game this season. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are heading into uncharted territory having matched their longest 'over' streak of the season at five games. Interestingly, the only previous time they posted five consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total against these same 76ers. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Second Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Golden State at 10 pm et on Tuesday.

Both of these teams wrapped up round one of the NBA Playoffs with consecutive 'under' results. In fact, the 'under' went 4-1 in the final five games of the Lakers 4-2 series win over the Grizzlies. The 'under' cashed in four of the last six games in the Warriors 4-3 series victory over the Kings. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 1 of this Western Conference semi-final round series on Tuesday, however. Both of these teams invite up-tempo play from the opposition. Interestingly, the Lakers allowed 93, 106 (aided by overtime), 99 and 96 field goal attempts over their last four games against the Grizzlies. Memphis was simply unable to take advantage of its wealth of scoring opportunities, running cold at the absolute worst time (the Grizzlies made good on 44 or fewer field goals in all six contests). I don't expect the Warriors to suffer the same fate. The ramped up offensively as the series went on against the Kings, knocking down 40 or more field goals and hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in four of the final five games in the opening round. In fact, Golden State has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts in nine of its last 12 contests and has hoisted up 100 or more FG attempts on five different occasions since February 23rd. On the flip side, the Warriors have yielded 90 or more FG attempts to their opponents in an incredible 13 straight games. With the Lakers rounding into form offensively, making good on more than 40 field goals in 11 of their last 14 contests and getting off 90 or more FG attempts in 11 of their last 13 overall, I believe this game sets up as a potential track meet. Keep in mind, the Lakers - despite not always being at full strength - managed to knock down 40 or more field goals in all four regular season meetings with the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State had little trouble finding looks, hoisting up 99, 96, 105 and 91 FG attempts in those four matchups. In eight meetings between these two teams since the start of last season, the low water mark in terms of points scored for either team was 103 with both teams putting up more than 110 points in five of those eight contests. Take the over (10*).

Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 9 pm et on Tuesday.

This play sets up similarly to when we (successfully) backed the 'over' in Game 2 of this series last week. Remember, the series-opener was exceptionally low-scoring with just 189 total points scored but as expected, Game 2 was much higher-scoring, reaching into the low-230's. Note that the 'under' hasn't cashed in consecutive meetings in this series since back in May and October 2021. Since then, the two teams have matched up 11 times with the 'over' going 8-3. While we did win with the 'under' in Game 4 of this series on Sunday, it wasn't easy as overtime nearly toppled the total. Of course that contest reached only 192 points in regulation time. As I've noted previously in this series, the Timberwolves have been one of the most productive 'fast break' teams in the league this season - top-eight in the league in fast break points during the regular season, in fact. While injuries have played a factor, they've played far too slow in this series. However, with some life following Sunday's overtime win, I do expect Minnesota to play with 'house money' on Tuesday and push the pace more than we've seen. Karl-Anthony Towns' two highest-scoring games of this series have come in the last two contests. The sudden absence of Kyle Anderson means more scoring opportunities for the likes of Towns and Anthony Edwards, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. On the flip side, the Nuggets are heavily-favored for a reason here. Note that while they average 115.7 points per game overall this season, that number bumps up to 118.5 when coming off a road loss (22-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 229.4 points in that situation. While it was aided by overtime on Sunday, Denver has now knocked down more than 40 field goals in all four games in this series. Finally, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with the Nuggets playing at home seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 233.3 points in that spot. In fact the 'over' is 58-36 with Denver coming off a loss over the same stretch and a long-term 176-139 when the Nuggets check in off an outright defeat as a favorite, which is the situation here. Take the over (10*).

First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Memphis and Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday.

We won with the 'over' in Game 1 of this series last Sunday but have stayed idle from a totals perspective since with the 'under' cashing in the last two games. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair than we saw on Saturday, when the Lakers prevailed by a 111-101 score. The Grizzlies have shot poorly in consecutive games, knocking down just 38 and 35 field goals. The pace was certainly there for a higher-scoring contest on Saturday as Memphis hoisted up 93 field goal attempts and Los Angeles got off 90. Note that the last time the Grizzlies were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games was way back on February 5th and 7th. In their next game they went off for 49-of-84 shooting in a 128-point outburst against Minnesota. Prior to that they were held to 39 and 36 made field goals on December 25th and 27th, respectively, before knocking down 48 in a 119-point effort against Toronto. The week previous to that they were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive affairs before connecting on 45 in a 125-point performance against Phoenix. You get the picture. The Lakers responded following a poor offensive showing in Game 2 by making good on 41-of-90 field goal attempts for 111 points on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have now allowed seven of their last eight and 12 of their last 14 opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Neither team has been able to slow down its opposition with any sort of consistency with Memphis allowing 90 or more FG attempts in nine of its last 12 games and Los Angeles yielding 89 or more FG attempts in eight of its last 10 contests. We've now seen consecutive matchups in this series stay 'under' the total and that's notable as you would have to go back to late 2020-early 2021 to find the last time three straight meetings stayed 'under'. The last time we saw consecutive 'under' results in this series was on December 9th and 29th of 2021 and the next matchup resulted in a whopping 246 total points right here in Los Angeles. The Grizzlies average 116.5 points per game this season but that number rises to 117.1 when coming off a game in which they scored 105 points or less (17-game sample size), as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 228.6 points. Similarly, the Lakers average 116.8 points per game this season but that scoring average increases to 117.3 when coming off an 'under' result (39-game sample size), leading to an average total of 232.8 points in that spot. Finally, we'll note that you would have to go back to February 15th to March 3rd - when the Grizzlies posted an 0-5-1 o/u mark - to find the last time Memphis was involved in more than two 'under' results in a row. Meanwhile, the Lakers last posted a three-game 'under' streak from March 15th to 19th with the 'over' going 10-4 in their 14 games since. Take the over (10*).

Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Denver at 10 pm et on Wednesday.

We saw an incredibly low-scoring (by today's NBA standards) series-opener between these two teams on Sunday as the Nuggets cruised to a 109-80 victory. I certainly expect to see a positive response from the Timberwolves offensively on Wednesday. Note that Minnesota has scored 107, 112, 109, 123 and 119 points after being held under 100 points in its previous game this season. It's also worth mentioning that the T'Wolves have averaged 118.7 points per game when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season compared to their overall season scoring average of 115.2 points per game. After hoisting up only 81 field goal attempts despite trailing most of the way on Sunday, I expect the T'Wolves to make a concerted effort to push the pace here, noting they rank eighth in the league in fast break points per game this season. Of course, the Nuggets are favored by a generous helping of points for a reason. They've been considerably better offensively at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 119.1 points per game. They didn't have to be great offensively to win handily in Game 1 but I do think they'll get pushed a little more here. Note that they enter this game having knocked down more than 40 field goals in six straight and 15 of their last 17 games overall. Meanwhile, Minnesota hasn't had much success controlling its opponents' tempo, allowing eight of its last nine opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts. Take the over (10*).

Eastern Conference First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Boston at 7 pm et on Tuesday.

Game 1 between these two teams on Saturday was an interesting affair that saw one quarter (the fourth) total only 42 points but another reach a whopping 70 points (the second). That contest ultimately cruised well below the total as both teams were inconsistent offensively. I expect a different story to unfold in Game 2 on Tuesday, however, as the Hawks look to punch back while the Celtics try to grab a 2-0 strangle-hold before the scene shifts to Atlanta. One thing is for sure, the Hawks are going to get their scoring opportunities. In four meetings in this series this season, Atlanta has hoisted up 101, 100, 97 and 98 field goal attempts. Saturday's game marked a low-water mark as the Hawks made good on just 42 of those attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see them shoot as poorly as they did on Saturday from beyond the arc (5-of-29 on three-point attempts). The problem is, even if Atlanta is able to do a much better job of taking advantage of its opportunities offensively, the Celtics are in line for some positive regression offensively as well and aren't likely to take their foot off the gas the way they did in the second half on Saturday. After scoring 74 points in the first half, Boston produced a miserable 38 points in the second half, actually letting the Hawks back into the game in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown clearly struggled after re-aggravating the laceration on his hand while Jayson Tatum scored well below his season average with 25 points on 10-of-23 shooting. Even going down the line, guys like Al Horford and Malcolm Brogdon made only minimal offensive contributions (11 points combined). Given the Hawks have now allowed more than 40 made field goals in 22 of their last 24 games and 40 or more in 26 of their last 28 contests, the Celtics are well-positioned to go off here. While Boston is still a terrific defensive team, we have certainly witnessed a shift this season with it yielding far more scoring opportunities thanks in large part to playing at a faster pace. The C's enter this game having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine contests. On the flip side, they've hoisted up 88 or more FG attempts themselves in 11 of their last 12 games. The Hawks have seen their last two games stay 'under' the total. While they've recorded 'under' streaks lasting three games or more on five previous occasions this season, I think their totals are being over-adjusted at this point. For instance, their most recent three-game 'under' streak from March 26th to 31st saw all three contests total at least 231 points. Prior to that, a three-game 'under' streak from March 17th to 21st saw all three games reach at least 236 points. You get the idea. Take the over (10*).

Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Sacramento at 10 pm et on Monday.

The first game in this series breezed 'over' the total thanks to a parade to the free throw line with the two teams attempting a combined 59 shots from the charity stripe. Even with that in mind, they still 'only' eclipsed the total we're working with on Monday by nine points. Note that the 'over' has now cashed in each of the Warriors last two games. They haven't posted three straight 'over' results since the first week of February and even during that stretch they didn't see three consecutive games go 'over' the total we're working with here. While neither team is known for its defense, it's worth noting that the Warriors have held 11 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals while the Kings have limited five straight and eight of their last nine foes to that number or less. So in a sense we are dealing with a somewhat limited ceiling for the two offenses here. I certainly expect the Warriors to make some adjustments as they look to contain Malik Monk in particular after he went off in Game 1. On the flip side, Golden State could be without Jordan Poole for this game after he was limited due to injury in the series-opener. Gary Payton Jr. saw extended floor time with Poole struggling on Saturday with the former being more of a key defender than an offensive contributor. While the Warriors did shoot just 16-of-50 from three-point range on Saturday, that's not necessarily unexpected as they average 16 made threes per game on the road while the Kings have held the opposition to just 13 makes per game from beyond the arc here at home. Finally, I'll point out that we haven't seen consecutive matchups in this series go 'over' the total over the last 10 meetings. The last time that did occur was back in January and March of 2021. Take the under (10*).

Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Oklahoma City and New Orleans at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday.

Both of these teams enter this play-in matchup on the heels of consecutive 'under' results but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night in New Orleans. The Thunder have been relentlessly pushing the pace regardless who has been in or out of the lineup in recent weeks, hoisting up 90 or more field goal attempts in 11 of their last 15 games and 92 or more in 10 of those contests. Unfortunately it has come at the expense of their defensive play it seems as they've allowed 12 of their last 13 opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. While not known for their offensive prowess, the Pelicans appear well-positioned to take advantage having made good on 40 or more field goals in 14 of their last 18 games overall. While New Orleans got into this play-in tournament thanks in large part to its terrific defense down the stretch, we did see a three-game lull in which it yielded 42, 46 and 50 made field goals earlier this month. It followed that up by holding the Knicks and T'Wolves to just 38 and 39 made field goals in its final two regular season contests but those two opponents still managed to score 105 and 113 points. The Pelicans figure to have their hands full here, noting that the Thunder have averaged an impressive average of 124.5 points per game when coming off four or five ATS losses in their last six games this season, as is the case here. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-3 in that situation, resulting in an average total of 243.7 points scored. Take the over (10*).