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PREMIUM PICKS & BEST BETS
|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-12-21||Sparks v. Lynx -7.5||64-80||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Los Angeles at 8 pm et on Saturday.
I'll lay the points with the Lynx on Saturday night as they look to bounce back from a close loss in Washington last time out. Minnesota has still won three of its last four games, not surprisingly coinciding with the team getting healthier. Napheesa Collier's return in particular has boosted the team's prospects in recent weeks. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is missing both Ogwumike's and not surprisingly suffered a lopsided defeat in Washington two nights ago (we won with the Mystics in that game) as they continue to struggle to find consistent offensive production. Here, they'll face a Sky squad that is locked in defensively right now, having held four straight opponents to 43.7% or worse shooting. Los Angeles has shot 37.5% or worse from the field in three of its last four contests. Take Minnesota (10*).
|06-11-21||Storm v. Dream +9.5||86-75||Loss||-110||11 h 6 m||Show|
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 8 pm et on Friday.
We missed with the Dream in this same matchup two nights ago as they fell flat in a 24-point rout at the hands of the Storm. Keep in mind, that game was actually close into the second half before Atlanta went on an extended cold streak and got caught chasing the game.
I'll back the Dream again here, as I expect them to make the necessary adjustments and do a better job of defending the Storm after they shot a blistering 55% on Wednesday. Seattle got above-average performances all over the floor in that game. In fact, the trio of Mercedes Russell, Sue Bird and Stephanie Talbot combined to shoot 13-of-17 from the field.
Meanwhile, outside of Tiffany Hayes, the Dream just couldn't knock down shots consistently. Atlanta is certainly capable of much better and needs a victory tonight to have a shot at a winning homestand with Washington rolling into town on Sunday.
Note that the Storm have posted three previous wins by more than 10 points this season. In their next game they've gone 2-1 with their two victories both coming by exactly three points. Look for the Dream to take the Storm down to the wire at the very least on Friday night. Take Atlanta (10*).
|06-10-21||Sparks v. Mystics -4||71-89||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Thursday.
The Mystics have managed to turn their season around, relatively speaking, by winning two of their last four games with the two losses over that stretch coming against two championship-caliber teams in Connecticut and Las Vegas. Here, I look for the Mystics to take advantage a depleted Sparks squad traveling across a couple of time zones to play this Thursday night contest in Washington. Note that while Los Angeles is coming off consecutive victories, its most recent came on a day where the game was essentially handed to it by a disjointed Chicago squad. The Sky had awful performances all over the court on that day while the Sparks saw Amanda Zahui B, Erica Wheeler and Te'a Cooper play above expectations in a come-from-behind five-point win. Washington has seen the duo of Ariel Atkins and Myisha Hines-Allen really emerge as consistent scoring threats in the last couple of games and I look for it to ride their strong performances to another victory on Thursday. Take Washington (10*).
|06-09-21||Storm v. Dream +10||Top||95-71||Loss||-113||9 h 27 m||Show|
WNBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Seattle at 7 pm et on Wednesday.
In my opinion, this is a bit of a lazy WNBA line set by the oddsmakers. Yes, the Storm are the defending champs and yes, Atlanta is coming off a 20-point drubbing at the hands of a middling Minnnesota squad - its second straight loss at the hands of the Lynx. However, I fully expect to see the Dream get up for this game. Despite the consecutive losses in Minnesota, Atlanta has been playing better lately, going 5-1 ATS over its last six contests. While losing guard Chennedy Carter to injury hurt, we've seen highly-touted draft pick Aari McDonald finally start to acclimate herself to the offense in recent games, most recently scoring a season-high 15 points in consecutive games against the Lynx. Meanwhile, Tiffany Hayes has scored 20+ points in four of her last five games and Cheyenne Parker, the Dream's big offseason acquisition, is rounding back into form after contributing 19 minutes and 12 points last time out. Seattle is coming off a hard-fought 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Dallas Wings at home and checks in just 1-5 ATS over its last five contests. I'll grab the generous helping of points with a Dream squad that despite its early-season struggles, hasn't lost three games in a row yet this season. Take Atlanta (10*).
|06-05-21||Sky +5 v. Sparks||Top||63-68||Push||0||6 h 24 m||Show|
WNBA Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Los Angeles at 3 pm et on Saturday.
We just missed with the Sky in their last game as they blew a late five-point fourth quarter lead before dropping a three-point decision in overtime - their second straight heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Phoenix Mercury. Here, they'll continue their road trip against a Sparks squad that is off a blowout win against the lowly Fever, but play without a number of key players. While Los Angeles gets bit by the injury bug, Chicago gets healthier. The Sky welcomed back Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson last game and while both played limited minutes, they both contributed and I expect both to make even more of an impact on Saturday. Chicago isn't off to the start it had hoped for this season but there's obviously plenty of time to turn things around. This is a key spot and I look for the Sky to come up big. Take Chicago (10*).
|06-03-21||Sky +2 v. Mercury||74-77||Loss||-112||10 h 20 m||Show|
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday.
The Sky have a lot of room for improvement in this game after suffering a heart-breaking 84-83 loss on a buzzer-beating three from Kia Nurse two nights ago. Look for them to earn some quick revenge here as they head to Phoenix looking to snap their five-game skid. Chicago shot a miserable 38% from the field in that loss to the Mercury while Phoenix shot a blistering 52.5%. Yet it still took a 14-3 run to end the game for the Mercury to prevail. Here, Chicago opened as a short road favorite but has since shifted to an underdog role. That's just fine with us. The Sky are expected to have both Allie Quigley and Stefanie Dolson back for this game. How much they can contribute minutes-wise remains to be seen but the fact that they have them back in the lineup at least provides an emotional boost. Remember, this is a team that started the season with consecutive victories. Phoenix has been dealing with a key absence of its own with Diana Taurasi sidelined with a chest injury. Note that the Mercury check in 0-8 ATS the last eight times they've played at home after allowing 80 points or more in their last game, as is the case here. Despite Tuesday's loss, Chicago has still taken five of the last seven meetings in this series. Take Chicago (10*).
|06-01-21||Aces +1.5 v. Sun||67-74||Loss||-110||9 h 25 m||Show|
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
We were fortunate to cash a ticket fading Connecticut on Sunday as it faded in the game's final minute in an eventual overtime loss against the Lynx. Here, I look for the Sun to fall short once again as they host a surging Las Vegas Aces squad. I noted in Sunday's analysis that the Sun were a road-weary bunch and now they check in playing their seventh game in the last 14 nights in five different cities with not one occasion where they were able to catch their breath with consecutive games at home over that stretch. Meanwhile, Las Vegas comes in having played four of its last five games at home, forced to travel just once over the last two weeks - that being a relatively short trip to Phoenix. The Aces have reeled off three straight victories, going 2-0-1 ATS over that stretch and will be set on earning some revenge here after dropping a 72-65 decision at home against the Sun on May 23rd. While I have a lot of respect for Connecticut, I do feel it is still in line for some regression and should fall short against an elite Las Vegas team on Tuesday night. Take Las Vegas (10*).
|05-30-21||Sun v. Lynx +2||74-79||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Connecticut at 7 pm et on Sunday.
Connecticut is off to a blazing 6-1 start to the season but I look for it to get tripped up here as it travels to Minnesota to face the winless Lynx on Sunday. Note that the Sun will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, in five different cities. Also note that they're coming off three straight tightly-contested basketball games, all decided by seven points or less. Meanwhile, the Lynx got closer to full strength with the return of Napheesa Collier last time out and while they dropped their fourth game in a row, Collier contributed 14 points, six assists, three rebounds and two blocks in 28 quality minutes. They'll be happy to face someone other than the defending WNBA champion Storm after dropping consecutive double-digit decisions against them. While the Sun may be a little road weary, the Lynx will be playing for just the third time in the last 11 nights. The last time these two teams met we saw Minnesota prevail by nine points last August. Take Minnesota (10*).
|05-29-21||Dream +4 v. Liberty||90-87||Win||100||4 h 27 m||Show|
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New York at 2 pm et on Saturday.
The Liberty have been one of the biggest surprises in the WNBA in the early going this season, reeling off five wins in their first six games. Meanwhile, Atlanta has quietly turned things around with three straight victories and I believe the Dream will be right there with the Liberty here today. Atlanta's turnaround has coincided with everything clicking on offense as it has poured in 83, 90 and 101 points in its last three contests. It should be able to continue that offensive surge against a middle-of-the-pack New York defense here. Give the Liberty credit for getting off to a hot start, but I'm not sure it's sustainable. They've certainly benefited from facing some struggling opponents in the early going (Indiana twice, Minnesota, Washington, Chicago and Dallas). I'll grab the points with the Dream here. Take Atlanta (10*).
|05-28-21||Lynx +7.5 v. Storm||Top||72-82||Loss||-115||12 h 52 m||Show|
WNBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday.
As defending WNBA champions, Seattle is likely to get every opponent's best shot this season. Perhaps even moreso here as Minnesota has been idle since dropping a 12-point decision at home against the Storm back on May 20th. The Lynx were right there in that one until Seattle caught fire in the fourth quarter. Here, I look for Minnesota to do a better job of keeping things close for 40 minutes. Note that the extra time off has given the Lynx a chance to get underrated Napheesa Collier back for this matchup. She was a force at both ends of the floor last season and adds to an already talented Lynx lineup. The extra time off should have also served to get former Las Vegas Aces sharp-shooter Kayla McBride better acclimated in the offense. Seattle has reeled off three straight wins since opening the season with a 1-1 split in a two-game set against the Aces. However, the Storm have failed to cover the spread in each of their last two games (we settled for a 'push' with Seattle in its three-point win over Connecticut earlier this week). With Minnesota desperate to end its three-game slide to open the season, we'll grab the generous helping of points on Friday night. Take Minnesota (10*).
|05-26-21||Aces -6 v. Mercury||85-79||Push||0||10 h 53 m||Show|
My selection is on Las Vegas minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Wednesday.
I'll lay the points with the Aces as they look to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against the Sun last time out. Phoenix is also coming off a home loss against Connecticut but will be in tough trying to bounce back against one of the best teams in the league, without one of its best players in Diana Taurasi, who is out indefinitely with a chest injury. The Aces shot a miserable 40.3% from the field in their most recent game with the duo of Liz Cambage and A'ja Wilson scoring just 24 points combined. Expect them to make amends here. Note that the Mercury's only two wins this season have come against Minnesota and Washington, two teams that are missing key players of their own and struggled in the early going this season. Las Vegas will have added motivation here after dropping both matchups with Phoenix last year. The Aces are the better team and I look for them to win this one going away. Take Las Vegas (10*).
|05-25-21||Sun v. Storm -3||87-90||Push||0||9 h 15 m||Show|
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Tuesday.
Connecticut has exceeded expectations and gotten off to a perfect 5-0 start keyed by consecutive wins over the Mercury and Aces - two of the league's best teams - to open this three-game road trip. I expect the Sun to finally get tripped up on Tuesday night, however, as they face a tall task against the defending champion Storm. Seattle has just one blemish on its record so far this season with that setback coming in the second half of a two-game set against the aforementioned Aces. Note that the Storm swept last year's two-game season series, winning both meetings by double-digits. They've gone 14-8 in the last 22 meetings in this series. The Sun should have the Storm's full attention for this one given their undefeated record. Take Seattle (10*).
|05-22-21||Storm -6 v. Wings||Top||100-97||Loss||-106||9 h 27 m||Show|
WNBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Saturday.
Dallas exploded for 94 points in its season-opening rout of Los Angeles last Friday night but should find the going much tougher as it returns home to host a Seattle squad that already appears to be in midseason form. The Storm are off to a 2-1 start with their lone loss coming in the second of a two-game set against Las Vegas. We should see the Seattle offense go off in this game as it faces a below-average Dallas defense that is missing a number of key cogs including two-way star Allisha Gray on Saturday. Arike Ogunbowale is an all-world talent for the Wings but she can't carry the team all on her own. I believe secondary scoring could be an issue moving forward with Gray sidelined as well as Satou Sabally. Seattle has taken five straight meetings in this series, going 4-1 ATS along the way. That includes a pair of double-digit wins in the bubble last summer. Note that the Storm check in an impressive 23-10 ATS after giving up 75 points or more in their last game over the last three seasons and 20-10 ATS against division opponents over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than 10 points per game in the latter situation. Take Seattle (10*).
|05-18-21||Aces +1 v. Storm||96-80||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
My selection is on Las Vegas over Seattle at 10 pm et on Tuesday.
We won with the 'over' in Saturday's matchup between these two elite WNBA squads - a game Seattle won by a 97-83 score. The Storm turned in a near-perfect performance in that one, shooting 51% from the field and knocking down 12-of-27 (44%) of their three-point attempts. Here, I look for Las Vegas to answer back and finally exact some revenge after dropping four straight meetings in the series going back to last year's WNBA Finals. The Aces are certainly comfortable playing an up-tempo style, which they should be afforded once again on Tuesday night. Their downfall on Saturday was their inability to knock down outside shots, connecting on just 3-of-12 three-point attempts. Look for more of those shots to start falling on Tuesday as they earn a split in this two-game set in the Pacific Northwest, noting that Seattle is 10-25 ATS when coming off an upset win as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Las Vegas (10*).
|05-18-21||Lynx -1.5 v. Liberty||Top||75-86||Loss||-108||9 h 53 m||Show|
WNBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
New York is off to a perfect 2-0 start to the season but is fortunate to have faced the lowly Indiana Fever twice, and it's worth noting it needed a last-second game-winning shot from Sabrina Ionescu to secure one of those victories. Minnesota suffered a narrow two-point loss in its home-opener against Phoenix but should bounce back here against a weaker opponent. Keep in mind, the Lynx have taken four of their last five meetings with the Liberty, sweeping last year's two matchups by 26 and 30-point margins. Minnesota is a perennial WNBA title contender and should be right there in the conversation this season with the addition of Kayla McBride, who contributed 17 points in the season-opener. Of course the Lynx will be even stronger once they get Napheesa Collier back from quarantine later this week but for now, I believe this is a matchup they can handle with the Liberty missing a number of key players as well. Take Minnesota (10*).
|05-14-21||Sun -2.5 v. Dream||Top||78-67||Win||100||13 h 40 m||Show|
WNBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Friday.
I actually like the prospects of both of these teams but Connecticut is the squad that has legitimate championship aspirations, even if the odds are long on the Sun reaching that pinnacle for the first time in franchise history. The Sun return most of their roster from a year ago - a team that got off to a slow start before eventually rounding into form and going on a deep playoff run. While the Sun won't have Alyssa or Jasmine Thomas for Friday's opener, they do have Jonquel Jones back after she opted-out of the 2020 campaign, and should also have the services of Briann January (for limited minutes at least) after there was some question whether she would be able to start the season due to Covid quarantine. Losing Alyssa Thomas for the season to a torn achilles was obviously a major blow, but I do feel the Sun have the depth to stay competitive, especially if rookie DiJonai Carrington can exceed (or even just meet) expectations following an impressive training camp. Look out for Brionna Jones as well as she took on a bigger role in Jonquel Jones' absence last season and comes off an incredible championship season in the Czech Republic League. Atlanta has the potential to improve considerably following its second consecutive losing season but I'm not sure we're going to see it all work right out of the gate. The Dream will be without Tiffany Hayes and Cheyenne Parker for their opener, which means they'll rely heavily on sophomore guard Chennedy Carter and third-overall draft pick Aari MacDonald. Head coach Nicki Collen bolted for Baylor on short notice, leaving the team under the guidance of interim coach Mike Petersen. With a lot of new pieces to work with, it will likely take some time to figure things out. The potential is there for the Dream to be one of the entertaining teams in the league with a guard-heavy rotation, but on night one of the regular season, I expect them to fall short against a more seasoned Sun squad. Take Connecticut (10*).
|06-09-18||Lynx +4.5 v. Sun||75-89||Loss||-110||6 h 15 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Connecticut at 2 pm et on Saturday.
I'll grab the points with the Lynx on Saturday afternoon as they try to build off a win in Washington. Minnesota had surprisingly dropped four games in a row before righting the ship with an 88-80 victory in Washington on Thursday. The Lynx will certainly face a stiff test against the Sun on Saturday, as Connecticut is off to a 6-1 start to the season. It is worth noting, however, that the Sun have cooled slightly, dropping the cash ATS in each of their last two contests. They're back home for the first time following a four-game road trip here, which always presents a bit of a tough spot. Minnesota ended a two-game slide in Connecticut with a win on this floor last season. Look for it to take Connecticut down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Minnesota (10*).
|06-01-18||Mercury v. Lynx -8||Top||95-85||Loss||-105||10 h 18 m||Show|
WNBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Phoenix at 8 pm et on Friday.
The Lynx are off to a miserable 0-5 ATS start this season and have won just two of those five games straight-up. Keep in mind, the Lynx didn't drop their sixth game ATS until July 8th last season. I'm still a believer in this team and I'm confident we'll see them bounce back in a big way at home on Friday night. It is of course worth noting that Minnesota has been on the road for the last three games so it's not as if the Lynx have been falling flat at home. And this should be a favorable matchup for Minnesota as it went 3-0-1 ATS against the Mercury last season. In fact, the Lynx are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Mercury. Phoenix isn't off to a banner start to 2018 either, having lost three games in a row entering this one. I simply feel that Minnesota has a lot more upside right now and back at home I expect to see a much more focused effort. Take Minnesota (10*).
|05-29-18||Mystics v. Storm -3||77-81||Win||100||24 h 25 m||Show|
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over Washington at 10 pm et on Tuesday.
The Mystics are coming off a huge victory over Minnesota on Sunday afternoon, prevailing on the strength of a tremendous effort from their bench. I can't help but feel we'll see a letdown here, however, as Washington hits the road still undefeated at 4-0 on the season. Note that the Mystics haven't won a game here in Seattle since May 2016. Seattle has quietly gotten off to a solid start itself, having won three of its first four contests this season. The Storm seem to be gaining confidence with each passing game, even if they did have to hold on for a closer than it should have been victory in Las Vegas on Sunday (they led by 18 points at halftime but won by just seven). Their poor second half in that game may serve as a good lesson learned heading into this much tougher matchup on Tuesday. Take Seattle (10*).
|05-25-18||Sky +7.5 v. Storm||91-95||Win||100||25 h 13 m||Show|
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Seattle at 10 pm et on Friday.
The young Chicago Sky face their first bit of adversity following a blowout loss at home against Atlanta on Wednesday. The Sky had opened the campaign with back-to-back victories. Meanwhile, the Storm are coming off an early season revenge spot, one they made good on in Phoenix on Wednesday night. I'm looking for a tightly-contested affair in the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Look for the Sky's young nucleus to bounce back with a big effort. Take Chicago (10*).
|05-24-18||Mystics v. Fever +4.5||93-84||Loss||-107||7 h 39 m||Show|
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Thursday.
Quick analysis for this play on Thursday night. It's early in the season, but this is a big game for the Fever. Off to an 0-3 start (1-2 ATS) this is a winnable game for Indiana to finally feel good about itself after a tough stretch to open the campaign. We successfully faded Washington last time out against a short-handed Las Vegas squad. Yes, the Mystics have won their first two games, but they've failed to cover the spread in both of those contests. Washington has owned this series recently from a SU perspective, but Indiana has actually taken the last two games ATS-wise. Mystics are laying too many points here in my opinion. Take Indiana (10*).
|05-23-18||Dream v. Sky -2.5||81-63||Loss||-110||3 h 7 m||Show|
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 12 noon et on Wednesday.
I was waiting and still anticipate a better line with the Sky but with tipoff fast approaching we'll take a shot at the current price. The Sky are a young team, and they're still missing a couple of key pieces as league play wraps up overseas. With that being said, they have plenty of upside, and are off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start - winning both games as underdogs. I like the way this one sets up for them as well as I consider Atlanta to be an overvalued squad as the 2018 season gets rolling. The Dream were blown off the court by Dallas in their season opener. While they'll undoubtedly show more fight in this one, I'm still not convinced it will be enough. Getting Angel McCoughtry back certainly helps their cause. However, as we saw in their opener, I do think the Dream are going to have a tough time finding consistent offensive production up and down their lineup. Chicago looks poised to go on an early season run and I'll take a flyer on the Sky here on Wednesday afternoon. Take Chicago (10*).
|05-22-18||Aces +17 v. Mystics||70-75||Win||100||9 h 9 m||Show|
My selection is on Las Vegas plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Tuesday.
The Aces started their season with a thud on Sunday, falling by 36 points on the road against Connecticut. There was no real shame in that loss, however, as the Sun are poised for a big season and the Aces are still missing a couple of key cogs in the backcourt. With that being said, I do look for Las Vegas to give Washington a bit of a run on Tuesday night, even if it isn't being priced that way. Washington won its season opener by an 82-75 score over Indiana on Sunday. The Mystics certainly have the potential to do some damage in the Eastern Conference this season but I don't believe they belong in this price range, this early, regardless the opposition. Take Las Vegas (10*).
|07-14-17||Minnesota Lynx -6 v. Phoenix Mercury||88-71||Win||100||26 h 33 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Friday.
The Lynx know how to handle the duo of Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi. They've successfully done so before, and I'm confident they'll do it again on Friday night. Minnesota shouldn't lack focus in this one, not after suffering an ugly 100-76 loss as a 14.5-point favorite in Chicago last time out. That was the Lynx's first loss in eight games on the road this season. They've already managed to get by the Mercury on this floor by a 91-83 score earlier in the campaign. Phoenix checks in off of four consecutive wins. Keep in mind, the Mercury were favored in all four of those games. The last time they found themselves in an underdog role, they suffered that aforementioned home loss to the Lynx. Note that Phoenix is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. Take Minnesota (10*).
|07-12-17||San Antonio Stars +9 v. Indiana Fever||79-72||Win||100||16 h 39 m||Show|
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Indiana at 12 noon et on Wednesday.
The Stars are catching a boatload of points here but they're more than capable of hanging with the Fever as far as I'm concerned. Yes, San Antonio has struggled to find the win column this season, with just one to its credit. However, the Stars have managed to go a respectable 8-8-1 ATS overall and they've stayed within single digits on the road against the likes of Los Angeles and Minnesota - two of the league's best teams. Indiana has dropped two in a row and three of its last four games overall. The Fever are just 6-9-1 ATS this season. The road team has won three straight meetings in this series and the Stars are 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups. Take San Antonio (10*).