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We like the Marshall Thundering Herd @ Georgia Southern Eagles game to finish OVER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As the favorites in this game, we expect Marshall to win. In their wins this season, they are averaging 41.33 points per game.

GASO are averaging 31.6 points per game themselves and have put up 38+ in three out of five games this season.

In their last five home games, the Eagles have seen the total go OVER in four of them.

Georgia Southern have also seen the total go OVER in four of their last five divisional games inside of the Sun Belt (East.)

Their latest meeting last season finished with 71 total points (38-33.)

Both teams give up a bunch of points as well as scoring. They rank #110 and #111 in points allowed per game out of 133 FBS teams.

After putting up lots of points in wins in their last games, they'll want to keep it up this week.

All signs points towards an OVER. Get the best line you can.

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We like the Duke Blue Devils @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to stay UNDER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Blue Devils enter this game as nearly a double digit underdog despite being 5-0. That should tell you something about the Yellow Jackets defense.

Both Duke and Georgia Tech have seen more UNDER's than OVER's this season so far.

Georgia Tech ranks 18th in FBS allowing just 90.2 rushing yards per game. Duke ranks 18th in FBS in passing defense allowing just 155.8 yards through the air a game.

Both of the past two meetings between Duke/GT have stayed UNDER the total.

The UNDER is also 7-2 in their last nine matchups against each other when Georgia Tech is the home favorite.

We are expecting a game featuring a lot of punts in this game on Saturday. Look for these teams to stay UNDER the total.

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We like the Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions to go Over for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

We won with the under when the Lions played on primetime in Week 1. This is a far lower total though as that one was in the 50s. 

The Lions are averaging 399.7 yards per game, top 5 in the NFL. 

The Seahawks have scored 23 or more points in all 3 of their games. Since last year, they have scored 20 or more points in 7 straight games.

These teams faced each other last September and combined for 68 points. They also faced each other twice in 2022 and those games finished with 90 and 93 points! 

The over is the play! 

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We like Oregon vs Ucla to go Over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

The total is low. The last time these teams faced each other, the o/u line was 70.5.

The Ducks have the capability of going over this low total all by themselves. Oregon has scored progressively more every week and managed 49 points (and 546 yards) last game.

Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel leads the country with an 84% completion percentage. He's the only FBS QB above the 80% mark. The dual threat Gabriel can also beat teams with his legs.

UCLA has given up 76 points the last 2 games alone. UCLA QB Ethan Garbers threw for a career-high 281 yards with two touchdowns in his last game.

The last 4 meetings had scores of 45-30, 34-31, 38-35 and 42-21. All went over. 8 of the last 9 meetings have finished with at least 56. The over is the play.

We like Cincinnati and Washington under on Monday night for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

The Bengals are averaging only 17.5 points. The Commanders are averaging just 20.5 points. 

The Bengals offense is averaging just 272 yards per game. Their defense is allowing only 288 yards per game. 

Burrow threw for only 201 yards and 1 touchdown in his only previous game vs. Washington. The final score was 20-9. 

Washington is running the ball more than most teams in the league and they rank #3 in rushing yards per game. Those running plays keep the clocking ticking. 

The total is high. The play is the under. 

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We like the Chargers and Steelers to go over for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The total is very low, the lowest of any Week 3 game. It has dropped lower since it was released and that's providing strong line value. 

2. The Chargers just scored 26 points last game and that was when they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half.

3. The Steelers offense has struggled but both their games were on the road against strong defensive teams. The Chargers defense has also been strong but playing Carolina helped pad the stats. Playing at home should help the Steelers. 

4. Fields now has a couple of games under his belt with the Steelers and his confidence is growing. Herbert has an ankle injury but is pushing to play. If Easton Stick is forced to play, we feel that he'll outperform expectations. 

5. The last meeting (2021) finished with 88 points and the last 7 meetings have all produced at least 41 points.

The defenses have played well but this total is still too low. The offenses will be better than people expect. The play is on the over. 

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We like South Alabama and Appalachian State to finish over the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The total might seem high but South Alabama just scored 87 points in its last game.

2. The Jaguars are averaging 512.3 yards of offense per game and 48.3 points.

3. The Jaguars can score but their defense can be really bad. They gave up 52 points and 550 yards in their loss to North Texas. They returned only 3 defensive starters from last year.

4. Appalachian State has had some great defenses but this doesn't seem to be one of them. The Mountaineers gave up 66 against Clemson and are allowing 31.7 points and 447 yards per game.

5. The Mountaineers scored 38 points in their only home game. Playing a home game on ESPN against a leaky South Alabama defense, they will be motivated to put up a large number.

This will be a fast-paced game with a lot of big plays. We expect both teams to put up huge offensive numbers and the final score to go over the total.

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New Orleans dismantled Carolina 47-10 at home, but now hitting the road for the first time to face this talented Dallas defense, we're expecting a completely difference pace and tempo from the visitors. Dallas returns home off a successful 33-17 win over the Browns, and we also think that the Cowboys will be looking to protect the ball better here and establish the run game throughout. Add up these game plans and you have a contest that's decided by field position and in the trenches. With the high-scoring Week 1 results, this is an extra high o/u line. We feel that these are two of the best defenses in football. New Orleans was just 4-5 on the road last year, while Dallas was 8-0 at home. Let's not overreact to Saints' QB Derek Carr's performance. Throwing for three TD's and only 200 yards looks good on paper, but then we remember who they were playing in Week 1. It's going to be significantly more difficult here vs. the Cowboys, who looked really good in shutting down DeShaun Watson and company. The Under is the play!

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We really respect both these defenses but this total is too low. Last year's game had a total of 46.5 and Georgia exceeded that all by itself. The final score was 51-13. The Bulldogs already had 34 by halftime and could have scored more in the 2nd half if Kentucky had forced them to do. Even a really good defense can't stop the powerful Bulldogs. Georgia is already averaging better than 40 points per game. Kentucky just gave up 31 points to South Carolina last week. This year, at least the Wildcats play at home which means they should have more success in remaining competitive. They also have a new offensive coordinator in Bush Hamdan with a mandate to have a faster paced offense. The Bulldogs could go over this number again by themselves. But they won't need to, Kentucky is going to be helping to get this final score over the total. The play is the over!

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Many think UNLV is a sexy "dark-horse" pick to qualify for the CFP in January, and while that may or may not go on to be true, we do expect the Rebels to keep their recent offensive momentum rolling here against a Kansas team that's looking to rebound from an upset 23-17 loss at Illinois as a five-point favorite. Before that game, Kansas had scored 48 or more in 3 straight. These teams played last year and the Jayhawks won 49-36 on Boxing Day. It was a complete shootout and all signs point to another high-scoring affair here in our opinion as well. That game had a total of 65. This lower one is giving a lot of value. UNLV is off a 72-14 victory over Utah Tech and is playing a very up-tempo brand of football. With both teams putting up big numbers, we think for sure this Week 3 matchup has "over" written all over it as well!

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Plenty of reasons for us to like the over here. Buffalo's defense looked shaky in last week's 34-28 home win over the Cardinals. Josh Allen was great against the Dolphins last year, completing 81 percent of his passes while averaging 340 yards passing per game. He also averaged 42 yards per game rushing. Despite winning 20-17 last weekend, the Dolphins still allowed the Jags to rush for the seventh-most rushing yards last weekend. Keep in mind that 3 of the past 4 meetings have finished with more than 60 points. Each offense looked "rusty" in the first half, and each looked a lot better in the second. We look for that offensive trend to carry over here on Thursday with the final score finishing with more than 50 points.

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We have a great Monday night matchup to open the season and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch. I just a real common sense play here, as New York will be looking to get the most out of its 40-year-old investment under center. Aaron Rodgers will also feel he has something to prove this season obviously. These teams haven't played since 2020, and the 49ers won that contest by a score of 31-13 in New Jersey. We're definitely expecting a much more competitive game this time around. Rodgers has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The defense though is going to be tested facing Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey at home. San Francisco's last 10 home games have all finished over the 40 mark and 4 of the past 5 (and 7 of the 10) finished with 44 or more. Admittedly these are two good defenses, but in our opinion, everything points to these two dynamic quarterbacks "stealing the headlines." SF cannot be stopped and NY will have to score to keep up. This number has fallen from when it came out, right past the key number of 44, is low. Over is the play.

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Whenever the LA Rams and Detroit Lions get together, the focus turns to the two veteran QB's. Detroit got Jared Goff, who led his team to an NFC Championship last year, while LA got Matt Stafford, who led the Rams to a Super Bowl championship in his first season. The last time these teams met was in January, the final score was 24-23. The last time these teams met in the regular season was back in 2021 and the Rams won 28-19 at home. We're expecting a similar hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring battle (relative to the very high total) here as well. Detroit is 8-1 in its last nine at home and the last thing it'll want to do here is to try and turn this into a "shootout" against Stafford. We're expecting Detroit to get Goff to be a game manager here and to control the tempo of this one. We should also mention that the Lions secondary is much improved from the last time that the Rams saw it. It was a weakness last year but will be a strength this season. With each offense getting out to a tentative start like we suspect, we're expecting this total to fall "under" the big number once it's all said and done!

This game is being played in Brazil, the first ever NFL game in South America. These types of scenarios often have a way of leading to more of a defensive lower-scoring outcome, due to the unfamiliarity of their surroundings. We have two really good QB's going head-to-head here, but we're expecting each side to put an added emphasis onto establishing the run game while on offense. That helps take pressure off their defense and to keep the opposing QB on the bench. It also keeps the clock moving. Keep in mind that this is a very high total, much higher than the total of 46 that these teams had when they last faced each. Three of GB's last four games finished with 45 or less. The Eagles last 2 games finished with 41 or less. They'll score but not enough to surpass this high line. We're on the "under!"

10* UNDER 49ers/Chiefs (TOM)

Two great offenses. Two great defenses. Honestly, it would not be difficult for us to write a convincing argument for this to be a high-scoring game, but for a number of different reasons we are expecting Super Bowl 58 to be a very defensive affair. San Francisco averages 28.9 PPG, which ranks third, while allowing 17.5, which ranks third as well. Kansas City only averages 21.8 PPG though, which is 15th overall. The big news for the Chiefs in the postseason and throughout the regular season as well though has been their tough defensive play, as they enter the big game conceding 17.3, ranked second in the league. Despite having Patrick Mahomes under center, the last thing that KC wants to do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with the hungry 49ers. Instead they'll look to suffocate this offense and control the clock. Mahomes won't feel nearly as much pressure as his counterpart and should expertly be able to "control" the pace of this one. In our opinion Super Bowl 58 will be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" becomes the savvy call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* Chiefs/Ravens UNDER (BLOCKBUSTER)

Although this game definitely features two of the best QB's on Earth right now, we're expecting this contest to be won in the trenches and by field position. Whichever team establishes the run and looks after the football is going to come out on top. Each offense will be doing its best to limit the time the other unit is on the field, and that means establishing the run game throughout. The Chiefs beat the Fish 26-7 in the Wildcard at home, before holding on for the 27-24 win at Buffalo last weekend. We're anticipating more of a defensive lower-scoring battle like the Chiefs participated in the Wildcard. Baltimore held the Texans to just ten points, and the Chiefs' sub-par offense could be in trouble on the road here as well. In our opinion, this number is indeed high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Bills (BLOOD-BATH)

These teams played in Kansas City back on December 10th and the Bills won a tight and lower-scoring battle by a score of 20-17. Will the Chiefs get their revenge here, or will the Bills take advantage of home field and pull out another win and cover? We're not 100% sure WHO will win and cover in this game, but we're for sure absolutely expecting another lower-scoring battle. Note that KC has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. We're expecting this one to be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" is almost always the correct call as far as the total is concerned, and that's the case here in this divisional round matchup; in our estimation, this number is a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Texans/Ravens (DIV. RND TOY)

With nearly 65% of the early public money on the Texans, most everyone here feels that CJ Stroud and company can keep the offensive momentum rolling here vs. this difficult Ravens defense. And why not though, as the Browns had the No. 1 defense in the league and were just torched for 45 points. And for Baltimore, it has had the advantage of having a week off to heal up. We're expecting LaMar Jackson to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. We base our picks on many different things, this particular one sets up really from a "situational" stand point in our opinion. Everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* OVER Eagles/Bucs (BLOCKBUSTER)

Both teams struggled down the stretch of the regular season after great starts. Regardless, here we are and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This playoffs has so far been anything but predictable. The Browns had the best defense in the league and they just gave up 45 points to the Texans, while the Dolphins leds the league in total offense, and only managed 7 points vs. a sub-par Chiefs' defense. And we absolutely believe that the oddsmakers are wrong in this case as well. Philadelphia held Tampa to just 11 points in a low-scoring win here earlier in the year, but note that Tampa has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!"

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10* Browns/Texans UNDER (WILDCARD RND TOY)

They say defense wins championships, and in our estimation the team that plays the best on that side of the field and wins the war in the trenches and the field position battle will be the one that comes out on top. These teams will look to establish the run throughout as to limit the mistakes their QB's can make in this pressure packed situation. The Texans won the AFC South at 10-7, while Cleveland was second in the AFC North. This is the second meeting between the teams in the last three weeks, with the Browns getting the better of the Texans by a score of 36-22 on Christmas Eve. Note though that Houston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. CJ Stroud didn't play in that game and while he'll be back in this one, as stated off the top, we're absolutely expecting each side to try and use the run game to set up the pass. These teams didn't get here because of their explosive offenses and unbelievable QB's. They got here because of their great defensive play. And that's what we're expecting, a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Washington/Michigan (TOW)

We think the time off between games will be detrimental to these offenses, and beneficial to the defenses early on. Note that when these teams met in 2021, the combined to score just 41 points. The Wolverines will be content throughout to let the clock run on offense as they use the run to set up the pass. This Michigan defense just held Alabama to 288 total yards of offnse in the win over the Rose Bowl and we're anticipating Michael Penix Jr. to have a hell of a time in this one as well. Everything points to this total being just a bit TOO high, so the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Liberty/Oregon (BOWL TOY)

We're expecting very little defense to be played here in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in what sets up to be an interesting matchup between two teams that have somethng to prove. Liberty finished 13-0, capped off by a 49-35 win over New Mexico State in the Conference USA Championship Game. Clearly, the Flames will be out to prove to the nation that they should have been part of the College Football championship. Oregon went 11-2 and lost 34-31 to Washington in the final PAC 12 Championship Game. The Ducks averaged 44.2 PPG, while allowing just 17.3, but with the Flames pushing the pace like we anticipate, despite being such big underdogs, everything definitely points to a high-paced, wide-open "shootout," rather than a grind-it-out defensive affair. Liberty averaged 40.8 PPG, while allowing 22.7 and while these are admittedly two very good defensive teams, we're anticipating plenty of offensive fireworks; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Toledo/Wyoming UNDER (BOWL TOM)

This is the Arizona Bowl and we're anticipating a very defensive affair, and will therefore be hammering the "under" on this one. Wyoming's offense ranks 24th worst, averaging only 324.8 YPG and 26.1 points. But what the Cowboys lack on the offensive end, they more than make up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 22.9 points. Toledo is averaging 33.6 PPG, while allowing only 20.6. The Rockets are now faced with a similar tough defensive unit here. DeQuan Finn is a talented QB for the Rockets, but both teams are going to have to deal with several opt-outs and transfters before this game takes place. Look for the longer lay off to throw a "monkey wrench" into each team's offensive rythym and expect these talented defenses to be the "main storylines" in tomorrows summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Jets/Browns (TOW)

This is an important game for both teams. To us, this is a great "situational" play on the "under." New York is 6-9 and hasn't thrown in the towel yet after a 30-28 win over Washington on X-Mas Eve. The 30 points scored is an outlier for sure though, as NY combined for just 14 points over its previous three games. Now on the road in this difficult venue, we can expect a return to form on the offensive end here, which is obviously really terrible. Cleveland is 10-5 and getting unreal play from veteran Joe Flacco, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, soring 87 points in the process, we feel that the "short week" will benefit these defenses a lot more. This number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* OVER Ravens/49ers (NON-CONF TOW)

Is this a possible Super Bowl preview here in Prime Time on X-Mas day?! Very possibly! Who knows for sure, but each side enters at 11-3. Each has dealt with injury issues this year and some off-field adversity. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road, while the 49ers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home. These teams are very evenly matched for the most part, and we feel this line is very sharp. We're going to steer clear of choosing a side, and instead focus on the total. The 49ers just annihilated the Cardinals 45-29 and there's no reason not to think they can't carry over that offensive momentum here. The Ravens have won four straight, which included a 37-31 OT win over NFC West LA Rams just two weeks ago, and we're expecting a similar wide-open offensive battle here on the West Coast on X-Mas day as well; this number is a little low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* UNDER Georgia Tech/UCF.

Both teams finished 6-6. Both teams are among the best in the nation on the offensive side of the ball, and each is among the worst on the defensive. All of these team's regular season numbers would clearly point to this being a high-scoring affair, and the general betting public would agree, as this O/U line jumped nearly six points from where it opened originally. Now, though, we feel its much TOO high. We liked the "under" on the original line, but now we definitely think this is too many points for these teams to go over. The longer lay-off will prove detrimental to each team's offense and beneficial for the defensive units in our estimation. A LOT of things have to go right for this total to go "over" the number, and we just don't see it happening; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER USF/Cuse (BOWL WINNER)

This is a great situational play. Syracuse is the favorite here, but it's already undergone big changes since ending the regular season, including firing its head coach Nunzio Campanile, who will be replaced by Fran Brown. Both teams finished 6-6, but now Cuse will be using a new man under center for this bowl game in Braden Davis, who played in two games this season and has one pass and rushed the ball twice. That means that running the ball is paramount for the Orange, and they'll be leaning heavily on LeQuint Allen, who had 1,062 rushing yards and nine TD's. USF is led by QB Byrum Brown, who has 3,078 yards passing and a 23:11 TD:INT. The defense catches a break here this week, but expect Brown to be under pressure from the Orange who concede 23.8 PPG and ranked 75th against the pass. Expect the longer lay-off and the changes to the line-ups to help in contributing to the Boca Raton Bowl staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done this year!

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10* UNDER UTSA/Marshall (TOP TOTAL)

UTSA is strong against the run, and Marshall is going to have to be forced to go to the run early and often with QB Cam Fancher out, and redshirt freshman Cole Pennington taking over. He'll be handing the ball to Rasheen Ali, who had over 1,000 yards rushing. Marshall only averages 23 PPG. UTSA averages 31.7, but it'll have its hands full here with this aggressive Herd defense. With each team putting an added emphasis on establishing the run throughout on this one like we expect, all signs point to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done!

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10* UNDER Ravens/Jags (SUPER TOTAL)

This total opened at 44, and it's since dropped. But it's not dropped nearly enough in our estimation, as we're expecting a very lower-scoring defensive "war of attrition." Baltimore if 10-3, including 4-1 on the road, while Jacksonville is 8-5, including 2-4 at home. Baltimore has won three straight, while Jacksonville has lost two straight. But after last week's 37-31 OT win over the Rams, we're expecting a more conservative game-plan from the Ravens here on the road. Overall the Ravens average 27.8 PPG, while allowing 16.8. The Jags have a QB issue right now with Trevor Lawrence injured. Backup Joe Flacco looked decent last week, but as we say, the QB situation isn't the greatest right now for the home side. Jacksonville averages 24 PPG, while allowing 22.3. With both teams coming off high-scoring affairs, in our opinion everything points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle this time around, where field position and taking care of the football will become the deciding factors on who comes out on top; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Chargers/Raiders OVER (AFC TOW)

LA is 5-8 and it's lost its starting QB for the remainder of the year. Last week the Chargers fell 24-7 at home to Denver. Las Vegas is 5-8 and it's coming off a 3-0 home loss to Minnesota last Sunday. LA has lost four of its last five and it's averaged just 7.7 PPG over its last three. Overall though the Chargers average 21.7 PPG. The problem is, the defense is also conceding 21.7 PPG as well. Look for Easton Stick to be given the green light here and to improve upon his numbers from last week vs. Denver, where he finished 13 of 24 for 179 yards. The Raiders are only averaging 15.5 PPG, while allowing 19.9. Last week QB Aidan O'Connel went 21 of 32 for 171 yards. So far he's average 195 yards passing as a starter and has a 4:7 TD:INT. The Raiders though have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten though off a SU/ATS shutout home loss. Yes, these teams are messes, but the overall situation finally points to more of a wide-open offensive affair; this number is indeed a little low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Eagles/Cowboys (NFC EAST TOY)

These two teams are steaming towards the finish line. Philadelphia is 10-2, including 5-1 on the road, while Dallas is 9-3, including 6-0 at home. Dallas has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after last week's 41-35 victory over Seattle. The Cowboys play with revenge as well after a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia back in November, and note that Dallas has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Philadephia's five-game win streak was snapped in last week's listless 42-19 loss at San Francisco, so we just feel that Philly will be extra cautious and we expect it to double down on the defensive end in this difficult road venue. Look for the rematch to be decided by field position and ultimately expect this total to stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Broncos/Chargers (AFC WEST TOM)

Denver is 6-6 now after falling 22-17 at Houston last weekend. Previous to that Denver had won six straight. The Broncos now face divisional opponent LA, which snapped a three game slide with a 6-0 win at new England last time out. That however is very significant to note here as the Chargers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS road win in which they shutout their opponent. It's a super important divisional game and we're fully expecting this sense of intense competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Army/Navy (NON-CONF TOM)

This game features two above average defenses, and two offenses which will run, run again, and then run some more! That said, we still feel that this total is ridiculous, as we're anticipating this competitive affair to translate into some offensive production on the field of play, which makes the "over" the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Last year Army came from behind to win 17-14 as a 3-point dog. Navy and Army have split the last four games, but we believe that good field position, set up by turnovers, will also help in contributing with this one going "over" the total once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Toledo/Miami Ohio (MAC TOM)

Pretty low total here, and we think it is in fact MUCH too low. Miami Ohio is 10-2 and Toledo is 11-1. These teams played in Week 8 and Toledo won 21-17 as a 2.5-point favorite. Note though that the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. a conference opponent. Miami Ohio saw the total go "under" in three straight to end the regular season, which is also significant to note here, as the RedHawks have seen the total go "over" in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Toledo has scored a combined 144 points over its last four games and we're expecting that offensive momentum to get carried over here as well; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

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10* UNDER Hawks/Cowboys (TOW)

Dallas is 8-3 and it's won three in a row, scoring 127 points in that span. Clearly, if Seattle is going to have any chance in this game, then it's going to have to control the ball while on offense so as to limit the amount of time that Dak Prescott and company are on the field of play. We just think that on the short week, we're going to see a more conservative game plan from Dallas as well here as it looks to dictate the tempo. Dallas gets caught looking ahead here as well to its game vs. division rival Philly here the following week, while the visiting side does the same with a rematch vs. the 49ers. Normally high-scoring teams, expect this Thursday night matchup to go the other way; this number is a bit high in our estimation, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Bucs/Colts (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a bit of a shootout here between these non-conference opponents on Sunday afternoon. Tampa has lost five of its last six. This is a big game obviously. It's off the 27-14 road loss at San Francisco. The Colts have won two in a row, including a 10-6 victory over New Enland two weeks ago (note thought that the Colts have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four coming off their bye week.) Both teams are still in the mix for a Wildcard, but each needs to start stringing some wins together. With each pushing the pace like we anticipate and opening things up on the offensive end, look for this total to indeed eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Buffs/Utes (PAC 12 TOW)

Here's a great "situational" play on the "under." Colorado is 4-7 and won't be moving onto a bowl. Last week the Buffs fell 56-14 at WSU and we have a hard time seeing the visitors even matching that pathethic offensive output. Utah is 7-4 and off B2B losses in which it has conceded 77 points. Now back at home, the last time it was here Utah won 55-3 over ASU. Expect another stellar defensive performance from the home side and for the visitors to simply "go through the motions;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Georgia State/ODU (SUN BELT TOY)

This is a huge game for ODU, which is 5-6 so far this season. Georgia State is 6-5, but four straight losses, the Panthers will be eager to return to form here and actually improve their bowl berth with a victory here. This is a great "situational" play, as ODU saved its season in last week's 20-17 win at Georgia Southern, but while the Monarchs have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, note that they've seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row; with each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER Jets/Bills (AFC EAST TOY)

It's a big game for each side, and while both have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, including in their first meeting of the year back in Week 1 when the Jets upset the Bills at home by a score of 22-16 in OT. The Jets are 4-5 and the Bills are 5-5 and there are plenty of implications on the line for each team. Note though that the Bills have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Bills have lost two in a row after last week's 24-22 setback to the Broncos, and they've seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that Buffalo has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. We're expecting a battle here, but one that flies OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch!

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10* Georgia State/LSU UNDER (NON-CONF TOY)

LSU and Jayden Daniels are 7-3. They've seen the total go "over" the number in all ten games. Daniels is brilliant, but now here favored at home in a massive way over lowly 6-4 Georgia State, which became bowl eligible and then immediately lost three straight. No need to overthink this one, as this is a great "situational" play. Georgia State will just be going through the motions here and will be looking to avoid any serious injuries. One game after falling 42-28 to Alabama, LSU bounced back with last week's 52-35 win over Florida, but with Texas A&M up next to close out the season, we believe the home side will take the foot off the gas in the second half; this number is finally a bit TOO high here for the Tigers, so the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Bengals/Ravens (TOTAL BLOWOUT)

The Bengals are 5-4 and the Ravens are 7-3. Cincinnati got caught looking ahead to this one in last week's 30-27 home loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite, snapping a four-game win streak. Baltimore's four-game win streak was also snapped in last week's 33-31 home loss to Cleveland as a six-point favorite. The Bengals play with revenge after a 27-24 loss at home to Baltimore, and note that Cinncy has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent. Expect the short week to also help in contributing to a lower-scoring defensive battle; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Toledo/Bowling Green.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. Toledo is 9-1 and looking to close out the regular season strong before Conference Tournament. BGSU is eligible at 6-4, but it'll also be looking to improve its berth with another win here and a possible upset. BGSU has seen the total go "over" three straight games after its fourth straight win in last week's 49-19 win at Kent State, but note that the Green Falcons have in fact seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Toledo is off a 49-23 win over EMU, but with the home side looking to control the pace of this one, rather than turn it into a shootout, we say that the overall situation, combined with the trends all point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* OVER Jets/Raiders (AFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but we're expecting a much faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring outcome than what this O/U line is suggesting. This is a big game for both teams and we expect this to translate into offensive production on the field of play. The Jets had won three straight before last week's 27-6 setback at home to the Chargers, but note that NY has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine off a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog in its previous outing. Las Vegas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-6 win over New York, and we think it can match that offensive out put this week as well. These teams haven't played since 2020, and in that game they combined 59 points. We see a similar final combined score here this time around as well, as the overall situation combined with the numbers/trends do indeed point to the "over" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* OVER Ohio/Buffalo (MAC TOW)

Ohio is 6-3, while Buffalo is 3-6. The Bulls would have to improbably run the table to become eligible. Likely won't happen obviously, but Buffalo won't go down without a fight. Ohio is 6-3, but the Bobcats have bigger aspirations than just becoming "eligible." One week after doing just that, Ohio fell flat in last week's 30-16 home loss to Miami Ohio as a 7.5-point favorite. But that's signficant to note here as the Bobcats have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in their previous game. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER UCLA/Arizona.

The UCLA Bruins are 6-2 and the Arizona Wildcats are 5-3. UCLA is off a 28-16 win over Colorado and it's now seen the total go "under" the number in two straight. The Wildcats are looking to become eligible here, as they're now on the cusp with five wins. They've won two straight and in fact over their last three games their offense has been "firing on all cylinders," posting a combined 112 points over those three outings (going 2-1.) The last time these teams played was last November and Arizona won 34-28, which would have sailed well "over" the posted number in this season's contest, but which stayed well below the total of 77.5 in that one last year. But that was then and this is now and when you add up all of the situational factors listed above, and taking into account all of the lower-scoring games these teams have been involved in of late, then this important Week 10 total is now for sure a little low; the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Kent State/Akron.

Both teams are terrible. Both enter at 1-7. There's nothing to play for here, not even the role of "spoiler" etc. This is a really low total, because these teams have been consistently inconsistent on the offensive end all season. Kent State only averages 12.5 PPG, but the Flashes are conceding 30.6. On the flip-side, the Zips are conceding a whopping 36.3 PPG. Yes, these offenses have struggled all season, but they won't here. With nothing to play here for but pride, expect this faster-paced and wide-open affair to eclipse this smaller number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* OVER NIU/CMU (MAC TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting those trends to end this evening. This sets up great from a situational stand-point to be a higher-scoring affair, as this is a big game for each 4-4 side. Each team needs two more wins to become eligible for a bowl. NIU is 3-1 ATS on the road, while CMU is 3-0 SU at home. Let's steer clear of the side, and note that the Chips have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row (which is the case.) This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Raiders/Lions (ASSASSIN)

We're expecting a very tight and lower-scoring defensive battle here. Detroit for the most part has looked great this year, but its two losses were really suspect. Clearly the Lions can't be feeling great about their 38-6 loss at Baltimore last weekend, but they ran into the league's No. 1 defense on the road and just weren't able to get anything going. Regardless, now back at home I'm expecting Detroit and Las Vegas to play to more of a "war of attrition" here. The Raiders are off the 30-12 loss at Chicago and we expect them to have difficulty moving the ball on the road consistently once again; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Chiefs/Broncos (AFC WEST TOY)

Here is a great situational play on the total. These teams just played two weeks ago and the Chiefs pulled away for the awkward 19-8 victory as 10.5-point favorites. KC has won six straight, but it's also seen the total go "under" the number in six straight. And why is that important?! Because note that KC has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. And note that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Denver comes in off a season-saving 19-17 win over Green Bay here last weekend and if it can somehow pull off an upset here, it'll still be in contention before heading into its bye week. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats does indeed make the "over" the correct call in this one and qualifies as our one and only 10* AFC WEST TOY!

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10* O/U ASSASSIN FSU/Wake OVER.

We have an interesting matchup here with Florida State now 7-0 after its 38-20 home win over Duke last week it was a 13.5 point favorite in that one. It's a 20-point favorite here on the road in this one. The total blasted past the posted number of 49 in that one and this game at Wake Forest is a bit higher the over/under number but it's still not nearly high enough in our estimation. Clearly, the Seminoles are in the driver's seat moving forward, as they have very winnable matchups throughout the rest of their regular season. They should in fact be favored in every game they play in now moving forward. We say for sure that FSU can keep the offensive momentum rolling here against Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are 4-3. They're 12th in the ACC and they're off the 21-17 upset home win over Pittsburgh. They still have a shot at a bowl game and they obviously won't be rolling over here. Wake has now played to five straight "unders" in a row after its most recent win, but note that the Deacons have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. When you add together the situational factors and the above listed  trend, everything points to this big ACC matchup at high noon on Saturday flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER FAU/Charlotte (AAC TOW)

We have a really low total here. A little TOO low now in our estimation. FAU is 3-4, while Charlotte is 2-5. FAU has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four, including it its most recent 36-10 home loss to UTSA. Charlotte on the other hand has now seen the total go "under" in four straight after its most recent 10-7 win at East Carolina as a six-point dog. Previous to that the 49ers loss 14-0 at home to Navy. FAU won this game by a score of 43-13 last year, and we're expecting a similar final combined score here as well. FAU QB Daniel Richardson had 142 passing yards but made several mistakes in the loss to UTSA, but clearly catches a break here facing the 49ers. Charlotte hasn't been terrible defesively, but with each team desperate for a victory here and pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this O/U line finally being a bit TOO low; the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* Syracuse/VT OVER (ACC TOY)

Some pundits may believe that this will be a very low-scoring defensive battle, but we sure don't! These are two hungry teams looking for an outright victory here and we're expecting this extreme-sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play today. Syracuse Syracuse is 4-3, while Virginia Tech is 3-4. The Hokies though are 3-1 at home. The Orange come in having lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as VT has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. ALSO, the Orange come in having seen the total go "under" in six straight, and despite their last game staying well under the number in their 41-3 humbling loss at FSU, note that Syracuse has also seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten still after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. These teams haven't played since 2021, but in that contest they combined for a whopping 77 points in the Orange's 41-36 road victory as a 3.5-point dog. We're not expecting that many points this time around, but we're definitely once again expecting a similar high-octane offensive affair, one that blasts past the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER UTEP/Sam Houston State.

These teams are bottom feeders and each has struggled to put points on the board in a consistent manner this season, but we definitely feel this O/U line is much too low in this one. Sam Houston State has nothing to play for here except pride as the Bearkats enter at 0-7 after a tough 33-27 OT home loss to FIU as 5-point favs last weekend. It was the best that Sam Houston has looked offensively and we fully expect that momentum to get carried over here. UTEP is 2-6 after a 28-7 loss to New Mexico State. The Miners have now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's signficiant to note here as UTEP has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Here's a great "situational" total on Tuesday night; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* UNDER CSU/UNLV (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. Colorado State has seen the total go "over" in two straight afer its most recent 31-30 home upset of Boise State as a 7.5-point dog. Note though that CSU has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS home win as an underdog. UNLV has covered in all six games and is 5-1 SU overall. The Runnin Rebels have seen the total go "over" the number in four sraight after a 45-27 win at Nevada last time out, but note that the Rebels have still seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last seven after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. UNLV's only loss was a 35-7 setback to Michigan. The Rebels can become bowl eligibile with a win here. We don't see UNLV's defense giving the Rams' any hope and believe they home side will just look to control this one without sustaining significant injuries. In our opinion, all of this will add up to a lower-scoring defensive battle in the end; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Rice/Tulsa (ACC TOY)

It's a big game, as each team comes into this one at 3-3 overall and 1-1 in league play. We're expecting a very competitive (as are the bookmakers with a spread like this!), and because of that, we're going to focus on the total and we're definitely expecting more of a defensive affair than what this larger O/U line is suggesting. The Owls are 4-2 ATS and they've seen the total go "over" the number in four of six this season. QB JT Daniels has 1,831 passing yards, 15 TDs and five INTs. The Owls have struggled defensively, but we anticipate this game to be won in the trenches and by field position this time around. Tulsa brought in all new coaching staff this year and so far so good. Tulsa has gotten the job done with tough defensive play and by running the all, as four of six games have gone "under" the number. If this one was at Rice, we'd likely be leaning to a higher-scoring game, but as it is, all signs in our opinion point to this one being a defensive battle until the end; the play is indeed on the "under!"

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10* OVER FIU/Sam Houston State.

Time is running out for 3-4 Florida International to become "eligible," but here's a great opportunity to move one step closer to that possibility. Sam Houston State enters 0-6, just looking for something positive and to finally "get off the schneid." Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency this year and each has been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but those facts have only helped in driving this particular total now a few points lower than it normally would/should be. We have to very motivated sides, and we're expecting that sense of competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play on Wednesday night. The Panthers average 28 PPG in their victories so far. The Bearkats have nothing to lose here, except another game. They have just nine offensive TD's this season, but here's a greart opponend for QB Keegan Shoemaker to finally have a break out performance against. Last week he was 32 of 48 for 278 yards and two TD's in the lost to New Mexico State. In our opinion, everything point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Giants/Bills OVER (NON-CONF TOY)

The Bills are now 3-2 after falling 25-20 to Jacksonville in London last week. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. The Giants are just 1-4, and another loss here will essentially be the final nail in the coffin for their 2023/24 campaign. Note that NY though has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Both teams are coming off losses, and each can't wait for the other to make the first mistake. With each side pushing the pace throughout like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER Cal/Utah (PAC 12 TOM)

Cal is 3-3 and coming off a 52-40 shootout home loss to Oregon State on Saturday. Cal's offense looked decent, but the defense looked terrible. So that's good news for the 4-1 Utes, who come out of their bye off their first loss in a 21-7 setback at Oregon State (note though that Utah has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to a TD or less.) Utah hasn't announced yet if star QB Cam Rising will finally be under center, but whether he is or not we can fully expect this explosive Cal offense to run the ball early and often behind Isaiah Ifanse. But the Golden Bears' defense, especially the secondary is completely atrocious. No matter which way you cut it, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Packers/Raiders (BLOODBATH)

We're expecting a really defensive affair here. The Packers looked horrible in their loss to the Lions last week, especially offensively getting outgained 401-230. QB Jordan Love is struggling, ranked 34th in the league in completion percentage. The run game is still suffering without Aaron Jones, who may be back, but regardless, Green Bay will have to establish the run throughout here to alleviate the pressure off its struggling young pivot. Las Vegas should have Jimmy G back under center, but he'll be more of a "game manager" here. Look for Josh Jacobs to finally get involved more for LV as well this week; when you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER San Jose State/Boise State.

Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here on Saturday night, and in our opinion, we're going to see a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Boise State is 2-3 and San Jose State is 1-4. The Spartans have lost five straight road games. QB Chevan Cordeiro has been decent with 1,066 yards passing, six TD's and two INT's. The defense is allowing 33.4 PPG. Boise State concedes 31.6. It's QB Taylen Green has 938 passing yards and a 4:4 TD:INT. The ground game though is the strength of the Broncos by averaging 165.8 YPG. Boise State will look to run this ball, and then run it some more to control the pace of this contest. San Jose State has had a difficult schedule, but this is a tough matchup once again for it and we expect it to once again have difficulties moving the ball. When you add it all up, this number is indeed high; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER UNT/Navy (AAC TOM)

For a number of different reasons we believe this number is way too high. UNT is 2-2, while Navy is 1-3. The Mean Green though have seen the total go "over" the number in all four games this year. That fact has only helped in driving this particular total here in Week 6 a few points higher than it normally would/should be. Navhy has seen its last two games fly "over" the number as well (both losses.) Two teams in dire need of a victory collide here and we're fully expecting this to be a much more defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. These teams haven't played against each other since 2007, so there's no recent comparisons to make in that department, but from a "situational" stand point, this one sets up beautifully to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. This game is going to be decided in the trenches, and by field position; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Nebraska/Illinois (BIG TEN TOY)

Two struggling Big Ten teams collide on Friday night. The Huskers are 2-3 straight up and 2-3 against the spread as well and they're also 0-2 straight up on the road. Illinois is 2-3 as well, but it's 2-1 at home. What does definitley stand out here though is that the Illini are so far 0-5 against the spread to open the year. Nebraska is going back and forth with its quarterbacks, but it looks like Henrich Haarberg has emerged as their No. 1 guy over Jeff Simms. Haarberg has only completed 54 percent of his passes, but he's the teams best rusher. Illinois is led by Luke Altmyer, who has looked bad of late. He looked banged up in last week's 44-19 loss to Purdue. The Illini passing game is in the bottom half of nation in EPA/pass and so far he has a negative touchdown to interception ratio. We love standing in front of trains and predicting when a lop-sided streak, either good or bad, will come to an end but we're going to steer clear of a side in this one on Friday night between these two struggling teams and instead focus on the tota; and we're going with the "under" here. Both of these offenses are in really bad shape right now. Nebraska is so far limiting opponents to less than five yards per play (which is 25th in the country.) In what should be an evenly matched "WAR OF ATTRITION," the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* OVER Jacksonville State/MTSU.

MTSU is 1-4, and Jacksonville State is 4-1. So why are the Blue Raiders favored here today? Because they've played the much more difficult schedule. They're also in dire need of some victories now that conference play is in full swing if they have any hope of a Bowl berth. Jacksonville State is off the 35-28 win over Sam Houston State, and we expect the Gamecocks to keep that offensive momentum rolling here. With MTSU pushing the pace of this one like we anticipate, this great situational play will eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* UNDER Hawks/Giants (TOW)

This total has been bet up since the opening number, and we now feel its too high. We liked the opening number as well to go under the number. Either way, we're not expecting a shootout here, but instead we expect this game to be won in the trenches, and with field position, similar to what we saw on Sunday night between the Chiefs and Jets. Seattle is unbelievably 5-0 in this building, but after playing to B2B "overs," and with their bye week up next, we're expecting the Hawks to have their hands full here with this hungry home side looking to avoid falling to 1-3. With each team committed to establishing the run like we predict, we're indeed expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle here on Monday night; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Rams/Bengals (BLOCKBUSTER)

Two teams in desperate need of a win collide here on Monday night. Non-conference games are usually less intense defensively, but we're not expecting that to be the case here tonight though, as Cincinnati will be risking life and limb to not only win this game (as the Bengals enter 0-2), but to also control the pace throughout. With each side committed to establshing the run while on offense like we envision, all signs point to this one staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Giants/49ers (TOW)

New York was shutout in Week 1 at home by the Cowboys, and then it went into its Week 2 matchup in Arizona down 28-0. The Giants then made the "mother of all half time adjustments" and came out and won the game by a score of 31-28. Working on a short week, and catching a contented 49ers team returning home from a 2-0 road start, we expect the visiting side to put some points on the board and keep that offensive momentum rolling here in San Francisco. This is a huge spread for San Fran to cover, but we're also note sure if NY will in fact be able to keep pace down the stretch. Either way, we do think NY will points on the board as it tries to keep pace with the red hot home side. This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Jags (AFC NON-DIV TOW)

The Chiefs looked shaky in Week 1 without Jason Kelce, and whether he's in the line-up or not, we feel KC will once again have difficulties moving the ball. Trevor Lawrence and company will look to win this game in the trenches and with field position. Weather could be an issue here as well, with Hurricane Lee ripping off the coast right now. We see this one being a really gritty, lower-scoring battle that indeed stays well "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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10* OVER Vikes/Eagles.

The bottom line here is that Mac Jones threw for 315 yards on the Eagles' secondary, and we just feel that Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will also be able to take advantage here. Clearly the Eagles won't be rolling over here after that somewhat uninspiring performance at New England, which saw them go up early, and then for some reason take the foot off the gas. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this game?! Either way, we can expect Jalen Hurts and company to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in their home opener. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

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10* UNDER Bills/Jets (ASSASSIN)

It's going to take some time for Aaron Rodgers to develop chemistry with his new team. They'll be looking to run the ball heavily to open things up, to alleviate as much pressure off him as possible. The Jets will be better served keeping Josh Allen off the field of play as much as possible anyways. New York actually had one of the best defenses in the league last year, allowing the fourth least amount of PPG. THe last thing NY wants to do is turn this into a "shootout;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Vanderbilt/Wake (EARLY)

A couple of non-conference opponents battle here and in our opinion, this total is a little high. Vanderbilt is off a 47-13 win over Alabama A&M, while Wake Forest smashed Elon 37-17. Both failed to cover the spread. Let's not overreact to last week's results offensively though is the moral of this story in our opinion. Wake Forest did win 45-25 last year, but with considerable turnover for each side, we're anticipating a much tighter game this time around. This one is going to be decided in the trenches and by field position; this number is high, the play is the under!

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10* Florida/Utah UNDER (TOM)

The Utes finished 10-4 last year and they lost in the Rose Bowl. Utah averaged 38.6 points per game while conceding 21.4. The Gators were 6-7 in 2022, and they lost the Las Vegas Bowl. They averaged 29.5 points, while allowing 28.8 per contest. Utah has question marks at QB though, as Cam Rising is still nursing a sore knee suffered in the Rose Bowl, while backup Brandon Rose was hurt in the preseason and he's up in the air as well. Florida's offense will be shaky to start this year as well, but it'll make up for it on the defensive side, which will be tough in the pass rush in this one. A great situational play on the "under!" 

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10* Navy/ND UNDER (NON-CONF TOW)

This is the third time these teams have played each other in Ireland. Notre Dame is 2-0. The Irish are heavy favorites here, but we're steering clear of the side and instead focussing on the total. The last time was back in 2012 where the Irish won 50-10. Notre Dame finished 9-4 overall last year and 7-6 ATS. Sam Hartman transferred over from Wake Forest and he had 38 TD's and 12 INT's last year. He now steps behind one of the best offensive lines in the nation. Navy finihed 4-8 overall and 7-5 ATS. The Midshipmen came out on the wrong side of more than a couple close calls last week. Navy's offense is centered around the run and that's what we're expecting to see a lot of today. Also note that the Midshipment finished first in their conference in third down stops last year. They also ranked second in stopping the run in the nation and the defense returns most of the starters. Look for this "across the pond" contest to be decided by field position and special teams and expect it to fall "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Eagles (TOM)

I think this Philadelphia defensive line has a chance to go down as one of the best in history. Especially if the Eagles win this game. The first thing you think about when you think about these two teams is the two men under center. Most would think that with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts as QB's, that we'd be in store for a high-scoring "shootout," but that's simply not going to be the case in my opinion. Both Hurts and Mahomes have been injured in the Playoffs. They do get two weeks off to prepare, but I believe these underrated defenses will benefit the most with the extra time. Each offense will be committed to the run, as it'll be the only way to keep these aggressive pass rushing units honest. Another big factor here sees two of the league's best "rushing QB's" going head-to-head. When you add it all up, I say this O/U line is a few points higher than it should be; the play is indeed on the "under!"

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10* UNDER Bengals/Chiefs (CONF. CHAMP TOY)

The first thing you think about when you think about these two teams are the two men under center. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes are two of the most electrifying QB's in the league right now. Both of these teams are among the league leaders on offense, but in my opinion, I expect more of a defensive affair in this one. The injury to Mahomes has like 80% of the early public money on the Bengals. I'm staying away from choosing a side in this one, but I think the last thing that KC can afford to do now is turn this into a "shootout" with Burrow and the Bengals. Look for the experienced Mahomes to control his offense with short crossing routes and over the top dumps. Both of these defenses are fantastic as well, and are just overshadowed by these two polarizing pivots. Look for this hard-fought game to result in a lower-scoring "under!"

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10* UNDER Cowboys/49ers (TOTAL ASSASSIN)

Two really good teams here. The first thing you think about when you think about either is the offense though. Brock Purdy and the weapons around him or impressive, but it was the 49ers' defense which sustained the team early and which is the unsung here of this team. The same can be said about Dak Prescott and his offense. However, it's been the Dallas defense which has been consistently under-rated this season. This is going to be a great game, but one that's decided by field position, by which team protects the ball, and by the men in the "trenches" on both sides of the field; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Jags/Chiefs (DIVISIONAL TOY)

I had the Jaguars last weekend. Do I feel "lucky?!" Of course I do! That said, I don't see lightning "striking twice" for Jacksonville this weekend. Kansas City is 7-1 at home and it scores 29.2 PPG, which is ranked No. 1. I think though that the Chiefs defense is vastly underrated. Especially in the playoffs, and especially at home. I have been a big fan of what Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson have done this year, but I think the "fairy tale" ends this week. I say a big letdown is in order here. Look for the Chiefs to "control" this game and to cruise to a lower-scoring victory; the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER (TOTAL ASSASSIN)

With Skylar Thompson "managing" this game for the Ravens, Baltimore will look to limit his chances to make mistakes. That means adopting a run first attack while on offense. It also means a lot of over the top passes in short yardage situations. The key for the Ravens success today will be in if they can keep the ball out of Joe Burrows hands. The Bengals themselves have an underrated run game, and defense. This total opened at 43.5 and it's since dropped. I'm following that line movement here though, as I'm expecting a very low-scoring, tight defensive battle; the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Hawks/49ers (WILDCARD TOY)

These teams played twice in the regular season, and San Francisco won each time. They won 27-7 in Week 2, and then 2l-13 in Week 15. Both games went "under" the number, but I'm anticipating some offense here finally. Seattle won its final two games of the regular season. If the Hawks are going to win this game, it's going to be on the arm of Gino Smith, who set the Hawks regular season record for most yards completed. He has plenty of weapons to throw too. The 49ers closed the season with eight straight wins. Their offense averages 26.5 PPG, which ranks sixth overall. While the first two games during the regular season went "under" the number, expect this faster-paced playoff affair to fly "over the posted total sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER (TOW)

The Horned Frogs were 5-7 last year, and now here they are in the National Championship Game. While the Frogs got out to a fast start vs. Michigan, I htink the Bulldogs will be ready on the defensive end from the "get go." Why is Georgia such a big favorite here? The Bulldogs have superior talent throughout all three phases. NFL level talent. And they're much bigger in the trenches. The Bulldogs will be out to impose themselves here on the Horned Frogs. I'm not expecting a shootout. The exact opposite. Look for a run-heavy, slower-paced "under" i the National Championship Game this year!

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10* OVER Penn State/Utah (BOWL TOY)

It's the "Granddaddy of 'Em All," with the Big Ten facing off against the Pac 12. Penn State brings in a great offense led by veteran QB Sean Clifford, who is playing his final game. He's aided by dynamic RB Nicholas Singleton, who is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. The Nittany Lions are going to have to be sharp offensively facing this "on fire" Utah offense, that's posted 110 points over its last two games, including in securing the Pac 12 title over USC. QB Cameron Rising had 300 yards passing and three TD's in that one. This year's Rose Bowl features two awesome QB's and I look for them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is low, the play is the over!

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This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the OVER Pitt/Bal.

I'm expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Steelers are rolling, as they've won two straight and three of their last four. They're going to have their hands full here though with a Ravens side that plays with revenge after losing 16-14 at Pittsburgh in December (note that Baltimore though has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 14 or less points in.) Baltimore is off a 17-9 win over ATL last week and it's won 3 of its last 4 despite the QB issues with LaMar Jackson. I think the home side opens up the playbook this weekend for Tyler Huntley now. Look for this total sneak "over the number once the final whistle sounds!

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10* UNDER Kansas/Arkansas (BOWL TOM)

These teams haven't played each other in over 100 years. That streak ends on December 28th at Simmons Liberty Stadium in Memphis. Kansas finished 6-6 and it's finally in a bowl game for the first time since 2006. This is a big deal for the Jayhawks and their fan base. Arkansas also finished 6-6, but that was a disappointment for the Razorbacks, who went 9-4 last year, including psoting a win in the Outback Bowl. Kansas actually started the season 5-0, but then its starting QB got hurt, Conference play started and the Jayhawks went on to lose six of their last seven. But first year head coach Lance Leipold's first season is still a success. QB Jalon Daniels did return from injury and finished with 1,470 passing yards, 13 TD's and two INT's. Kansas struggled defensively, but I think it can make some plays against Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson. The bottom line is, neither team will be suiting up their entire squad, and I believe the long lay off will have a detrimental effect on these offenses; the play is the under!

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10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL)

The total in this game has come down from its opening mark, and I don't think it's low enough. Utah State will be focused on running the ball today, and that means more time will be chewed off the clock with each possessions. Memphis actually posted combined scores of under 60 over two of its final three games. In fact, these teams combined offensive scores this season add up to under 60 points. I don't think either will reach its average here. Rest leads to "rust" for sure. Granted, Memphis does have a decent passing attack. But the Aggies have hit the "under" in eight of their last nine bowl games. Expect a hard-fought, but ulimtately lower-scoring affair here; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Chargers/Colts

Everything points to a lower-scoring "under" in this one in my opinion. The first thing that strikes me here is that the Colts simply have nothing to play for anymore. They're missing their starting QB, their starting RB and they're coming off the worst loss in the history of the league. The Chargers on the other hand have everything to play for. They've won two straight and can clinch a playoff spot with bigger aspirations moving forward with a victory. That said, I can't see LA keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Frankly, it's not going to have to. Look for LA's underrated defense to dictate the second half and expect this total to stay well "under" this posted number!

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10* UNDER Eagles/Boys (NFC EAST TOM)

The Eagles are 13-1, but QB Jalen Hurts is hurt and won't be playing, and because of that, I'm expecting Philly to come out today with an alternate game-plan. Dallas is off a tough OT loss to Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew is now the QB for Philadelphia and while I do think he has talent, he'll simply be a game-manager today for sure. Look for the Eagles' talented defense, which ranks sixth in allowing only 19.1 PPG. Dak Prescott had 256 yards and three TD's for Dallas last week, but it wasn't enough to beat a red hot Trevor Lawrence. This one is going to be decided by field position and special teams; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER (TOP BOWL TOTAL)

Wake Forest had a great offense and a poor defense. The offense averaged 36.2 PPG, while the defense allowed 31. The Demon Deacons though see plenty of talent leaving the offense via the transfer portal, including RB Christian Turner. Look for the time off and the new faces to throw a big "monkey wrench" into the chemistry of this Deacons' offense. The Tigers won four of their last six games to qualify. The Tigers only average 24.7 PPG, while allowing 25.7; I'm expecting a very defensive affair here, so the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Rams/Packers (NFC TOM)

The Rams are 4-9 after somehow managing a 17-16 win at home over Las Vegas last weekend. Despite that though, they only average 16.8 PPG. Green Bay got back in the win column as well last week with a 28-19 road win at Chicago. The Packers have now seen the total go "over" the number in four straight. Green Bay though is also in the bottom third offensively, averaging only 20.2 PPG, ranked 22nd. The Packers haven't been blowing teams away when they win, it's been more of a defensive affair. The Packers have had to play from behind a lot, but I don't think that'll be the case today, as I expect the Rams to take an overall step back here on the road and in these wintery conditions; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Bengals/Bucs (NON-CONF TOM)

The Bengals are 9-4. I think Joe Burrow will want to put on a show here and run up the score against Brady. That said, after last week's humbling 35-7 loss at San Francisco, I think Brady will bounce back here at home and put some points on the board. From a situational stand point, it sets up well as a more wide open affair, rathter than a crushing defensive one between these non-conference opponents. The Bengals have been hit or miss defensively this season. They have been relying on Burrow and the offense to set the tone, entering averaging 25.8 PPG, ranked sixth. Finally, note that Tampa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 9 or less points in; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

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10* OVER UTSA/TROY (TOTAL ROUT)

Both teams finished 11-2. UTSA went 8-0 in conference play and then won the Conference USA Championship over UNT by a score of 48-27. I feel like today's game will have a similar final combined score. QB Frank Harris had 341 yards and four TD's in the vicotry. The Roadrunners put the pedal to the metal all game, entering averaging 37.6 PPG. Troy is only allowing 17.6 PPG, but the Trojans are off a big Sun Belt Championship by smoking Coastal Carolina by a score of 45-26. QB Gunnar Watson had 318 yards passing and three TD's. The stage is set for a bit of a shootout here; this number is low the play is the over!

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10* UNDER Vikes/Lions (NFC NORTH TOY)

For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to stay "under" the posted number. The Vikes are 10-2, but they're slight underdogs here on the road vs. the 5-7 Lions. Detroit has inexplicably won four of its last five, but after last week's big 40-14 home victory over Jacksonville, I think the Lions will have a much harder time moving the ball vs. their divional opponent today. The first matchup of the season resulted in a 28-24 win for the Vikes, and the total went "over" the number of 51.5 in that one. But I think the rematch, considering the implications, will be a much more methodical, slower-paced defensive affair where field position becomes paramount. Look for Minnesota to pound the football via the run game while on offense, while also delivering a lot of pressure on the defensive side; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Navy/Army (TOTAL BLOWOUT)

These teams have historically played to several lower-scoring games over the last decade. Both run the triple-option, and neither will throw the ball much if at all. It's going to be blustery conditions as well in Philadelphia, but with all of that said, I still think this number is low. Navy averaes 22.4 PPG, while Army averages 29.4. Tyhier Taylor has 12 rushing TD, and the Black Knights averaged over 300 rushing yards per game. Navy uses a combination of Maasai Maynor and Xavier Arline at QB, and it's been effective as well. I believe each will come close to their seasonal offensive average here, so the play is the "over!"

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Buffalo/Patriots OVER (AFC EAST TOTAL OF MONTH)

It's clearly a big game for both teams, but more so for New England. The Patriots are 6-5 after last week's 33-26 loss at Minnesota on Thanksgiving Day. These teams play again in the very final game of the year. The Patriots have struggled with offensive consistency, but they're going to have to be the aggressor today. The Bills are coming off back-to-back road victories in Detroit, coming from behind to knock off the Lions on Thanksgiving Day for their second straight win on the same field (snow game the previous outing.) The Bills are now having to play a third-straight game on the road as a favorite. It's difficult to win in the NFL. It's even more difficult to win on the road in the NFL as a favorite week after week. I just see this being an offensive battle. Both teams moved the ball last week and I expect the same here; the play is the over!

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10* OVER Steelers/Colts (ASSASSIN)

Neither team has officially been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but each is on the ropes. Each has struggled offensively, and done decently on the defensive side. That's why we have such a low total here again tonight on Prime Time. But I just can't see either of these teams sitting back and playing conservatively this evening. They need a win. They need a spark. And I expect this to translate into a very wide-open contest between these non-conference opponents. With their backs against the proverbial wall this evening, expect a hard-fought competitive affair, but one the flied well "over" this low number!

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10* OVER (GRAND-DADDY)

For a number of different reasons I am expecting this total to eclipse this lower numer as the game comes down the stretch. Yes, there's no question that both the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers come into this contest with more questions than answers. Especially on the offensive end. It would be really easy to point at these team's offensive and defensive numbers and just assume that this will be a lower-scoring game, but each team will be opening up the playbook as they desperately seek a spark and a victory. The Panthers have a new QB under center this week. The Broncos keep trying to figure new things out on offense. I say the pendulum finally swings the other way as far as the total is concerned for these two teams; this number is low, the play is the over!

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10* OVER Oklahoma/Texas Tech (BIG 12 TOY)

For a number of different reasons, I expect each team to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish here, and because of that, I look for this total to fly "over" the posted number sooner, rather than later. Oklahoma is off a big win over Oklahoma State by a score of 28-13, making the Sooners eligible. I don't expect them to take the foot off the gas here though with the chance for a better bowl on th eline. The Sooners average 31.5 PPG, and last year they won this game by a score of 55-21. The Red Raiders moved to 6-5 as well in a tough 14-10 win at Iowa State as a 3.5-point underdog. It was a gritty win and I look for Texas Tech, which averages 32 PPG, to lay it all on the line here in the final game of the year at home; it's a great situational play, as I'm expecting each team to push the pace until the final whistle; the play is the "over!"

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10* OVER Pats/Vikes (TOP TOTAL)

Here are two teams that I think will go toe to toe on the national stage, and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, I'm expecting this total to eclipse what I believe to be a very low number. The Patriots have won three straight and they've allowed just six points total over their last two. That was against the Colts and Jets though, two QB's that both really struggled. I like Cousins here at home to boune back after the Vikes' 40-3 home loss to the Cowboys (note though that Minnesota has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to six or less points in.) Minnesota will absolutely be opening up the playbook on Thanksgiving, and I expect this more wide-open affair to produce a higher-scoring result; the play is the over!

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10* 49ers/Cardinals UNDER (ASSASSIN)

Here's a game being played in Mexico City. The 49ers are a big favorite here, but it's not because of QB Jimmy Garopolo. The 49ers have a great defense and run game, and I expect to see a heavy dose of that from the 49ers this evening as they try to contain Kyler Murray and turn this Cards' offense one-dimensional. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I say the value has now swung the other way. The NFC West is wide open. This is in fact a really important game on many levels. San Fran has also seen the total go under in six of its last seven after a SU win, while Arizona has interestingly seen the total go under the number in nine of its last ten Monday Night contests. These QB's are not dynamic. They're mediocre. Look for special teams and field position to prove to be critical for the winner of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under!

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10* OVER Chiefs/Chargers.

For a number of different reasons, I'm expecting a wide-open "shootout," instead of a lower-scoring defensive "battle." Kansas City is 7-2 and LA is 5-4. The Chiefs are off a 27-17 win over Jacksonville at home last weekend. KC has seen the total go "under" the number in two straight, but it's still the highest scoring team in the league in averaging 30 PPG. This is a rematch, as KC won the first game at home between the division rivals by a score of 27-24 as a four-point favorite. That one actually went "under" the number of 54 set in that contest. Tonight's total is significantly lower, but now it's a bit too low in my opinion. My UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR came last weekend in the Chargers 22-16 loss/cover against the 49ers as 6.5-point underdogs. LA is still second in the division and it's seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU road loss against an opponent. The national stage is set for a "shootout," not a defensive battle; the play is the "over!"

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10* under Cowboys/Vikings (ASSASSIN)

This is an interesting game. The Cowboys are favored for a second straight week as the visiting side. Last week Dallas fell 31-28 in OT at Green Bay as a four-point favorite. Suspect play calling down the stretch cost the Cowboys the victory. Now they head to Minnesota as a slight 1.5-point favorite to face an 8-1 Vikings team that comes home after an emotional 33-30 OT win at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog. We saw some high-scoring games last weekend, but I'm anticpating a much more defensive affair this time around in Minnesota, with each side committed to establishing the run while on offense; it's a great situational play on the "under!"

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