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We like the Kansas City Royals to defeat the New York Yankees on Monday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Royals looked very strong in Game 1. This is a must-win game for them as they do not want to go down 2-0 in a five game series.

Cole Ragans completely picked a part the Orioles in the wildcard series. He's the expected starter today.

Ragans owns a career 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Yankees. He gave up only two runs in six innings earlier last month against them.

Carlos Rodon enters the postseason after having a season filled with ups and downs. Over his career, he is just 4-6 against the Royals with an ERA of 4.66 in 13 outings.

Rodon also is 0-1 in his playoff career with a 13.50 ERA in two appearances.

The Royals were even with the Yankees in hits in Game 1, meaning they will compete.

Playoffs are normally close, low scoring battles. We'll take the Royals plus a run and a half in Game 2.

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10* Mets runline (ASSASSIN)

We're going to lay the price here with Luis Severino and the Mets on the runline option. Severino (8-6, 3.91 ERA) and the Mets are just 1.5 games back of the Braves for the NL's final Wild Card spot after their 4-3 win on Wednesday over the Orioles. Severino is coming off one of the best starts of his career, going nine innings and allowing just four hits and striking out eight with zero runs allowed. He also dominated the Padres in his only start vs. them in his career, allowing two runs over seven innings in a victory when he was a member with the Yanks. Dylan Cease (12-9, 3.46) counters for the home side, and he most recently allowed three runs over six innings in a win over Colorado last weekend. He was however already shelled for seven runs over 3 2/3's innings vs. the Mets back on June 16th. In what we anticipate will be a competitive game, we feel the value here for sure lies in laying the price for the extra 1. runs of insurnace; the play is New York on the runline!

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10* Mariners runline (ASSASSIN)

We had a play on Seattle on the runline last night, and where that one came up short, we now for sure love how Wednesday's finale sets up to be a very competitive battle. The Mariners lost the opener 3-0, and the followed that up with a 6­-3 loss last night. The Dodgers scored three runs in the bottom of the eighth and the Mariners have now lost seven of their last eight. They're 6.5 games back of a Wildcard spot. It's played like garbage of late, but Seattle has fantastic starting pitching, including the guy taking the hill tonight. Logan Gilbert is 7-9 with a 2.96 ERA and 155 to 29 K:BB so far this season (he owns a sharp 19:3 K:BB in August alone.) He'll be opposed by Jack Flaherty (9-5, 3.06), who has been great for his new team overall, but who still owns a poor 5.91 ERA in two previous starts vs. Seattle. While the outright win is clearly possible, we feel much more comfortable laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace; the play is Seattle on the runline option!

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10* Mariners runline (ASSASSIN)

Seattle is 6.5-games back now in the AL Wildcard race after yesterday's 3-0 loss. The Mariners have in fact lost six of their last seven. They seem doomed to skid completely out of relevance, but we think they'll put up a much more competitive performance here on Tuesday finally. This is a favorable pitching matchup with Bryce Miller (9-7, 3.29 ERA) starting for the Mariners, and Walker Buehler (1-4, 6.02) countering for the home side side. Miller shut the Tigers out over seven innings and struck out nine, but he still only earned a no-decision for his effort. Buehler gave up four runs over three innings and also earned a no-decision vs. the Brewers in his last outing. Buehler has now conceded at least three runs in each of his last six starts. The play is Seattle on the runline option!

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10* Brewers runline (ASSASSIN)

Milwaukee lost its third straight, and its second straight in this series, but we're expecting the home side to be much more competitive this evening. Note that Milwaukee is in fact 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses vs. an opponent. Neither of these starters has been great this year, with the Dodgers turning to Walker Buehler (1-4, 5.84 ERA) and the Brewers countering with Frankie Montas (4-8, 5.01.) Montas is off a win over Atlanta, allowing three runs and two hits over four innings. Buehler is being re-activated from the 15-day DL to make his first start since June 18th. Here's a great "situational" opportunity for both the Brewers and Montas to take advantage of. He looked pretty shaky over three re-hab starts and we feel he'll struggle vs. this hungry home side as well. We're going to lay the price though for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Milwaukee on the runline option!

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10* Diamondbacks runline (ASSASSIN)

Two teams with big aspirations in the National League collide in Arizona on Friday night, and while we do think an outright win is 100% a possibility for the home side, we definitely believe the value lies here in laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The bottom line is that we feel these starters or more evenly matched than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Zach Wheeler (11-5, 2.77 ERA) has been a consistent bright spot for the Phillies, but after holding the Mariners scoreless over eight innings in his last outing, we expect some minor regression here. Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.65 ERA) has been a workhorse for the Diamondbacks this year, most recently allowing four runs over five innings while striking out seven in a no-decision to Pittsburgh. It was the third time in his last four starts that he's posted at least seven K's. Look for Arizona to, at the very least, earn the cover on the runline option!

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10* Nationals runline (ULTIMATE)

As of writing, the Nationals are ten games back in the Wildcard rae, while the Giants are 4.5. For us, betting the MLB season for the most part is about betting "situations." And here's a great "situational" play that we always keep our eyes open for throughout the season. Depending on the pitcher, we like going against a starting pitcher that's coming off a perfect game or a no-hitter. And Blake Snell (1-3, 4.29 ERA) fits that bill for us. He's back to form after a second stint on the IR and a disastrous start to the season, but his recent numbers are completely unsustainable over the short or long-term in our opinion (note that he's still just 1-1 with a poor 5.29 ERA away from friendly confines this season.) As stated, this strategy doesn't always work, but for us it comes down to evaluating each starter in a case-to-case basis. So Jake Irvin (8-9, 3.56) and the home side will look to take advantage. Irvin is off a loss vs. the Brewers, allowing four runs over six innings, but we're expecting him to settle down here at home and to take advantage of the soft-hitting visiting side. While the outright is clearly in the cards, the runline value is just too good to turn down; the play is Washington on the runline!

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10* Pirates runline (NL NON-DIV GOM)

While an outright win is clearly not out of the question, at this price we feel the value for sure lies in grabbing the home side on the "runline" option. Pittsburgh is currently on the outside looking in to the wildcard picture, sitting 3.5 games back of the Padres. To say this is a big series would be a big understatement. The bottom line here though is that we feel that these starters are more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, and we do feel that regression is likely for Padres' starter Dylan Cease (11-8, 3.42 ERA), who is off a big win over the Dodgers, allowing one run over five innings. He's won four in a row and put up blistering numbers, but this streak is unrealistic to continue in our opinion. So with the anticipated regression, Bailey Falter (5-7, 3.95) will look to take advantage and to build off a great outing of his own last time out, conceding two runs over six frames in a victory over the Astros. He's been at his best at home as well by going 2-3 with a highly-respectable 3.87 ERA. The value here for sure lies with Pittsburgh on the "runline" option!

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10* Reds runline (NL GOW)

We like Cincinnati to dig deep here and, at the very least, keep this one competitive and tight enough to come away with the ATS cover on the "runline" option. The Reds are 47-53 overall and just 22-25 on the road, while ATL is 54-44 overall, including 30-19 at home. The Reds though have been money in the bank with the runline option on the road, going 31-16 ATS. The Braves on the other hand are just 21-28 on the runline at home. The Reds just got swept in the Nation's capital, so they won't be lacking for motivation. The Braves lost two of three here to St. Louis this weekend. Both starters are poised for a deep battle in our estimation, with Hunter Greene (6-4, 3.34 ERA) getting the call for the Reds and Reynaldo Lopez (7-3, 1.88) countering for the home side. Look for these two competent starters to battle deep and for the Reds to do just enough to get the job done; the play is Cincinnati on the runline option!

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10* AL EAST GOM on the Rays runline.

This is an "action" play, meaning whoever gets the start for either side, this will be a valid pick. That said, it's Zach Eflin (5-6, 3.99 ERA) scheduled to start for the Rays, and Gerritt Cole (2-1, 5.40) countering fo rthe home side. Eflin won't be lacking motivation here after an unfortunate loss last time out, falling 2-1 to these very Yanks last Wednesday, allowing two runs off four hits over seven innings with four K's. Eflin owns a sharp 48:5 K:BB and we think he'll put forth AT LEAST the same effort here in his first start after the Break. Cole is off a win over the Orioles last week, striking out seven over six innings and allowing just one run. Cole has been hit or miss this year though and we expect these inconsistencies to once again be an issue here. The rest will lead to "rust" for Cole and everything points to another strong performance from the Rays; the play is indeed on Tampa on the runline option!

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10* D-Backs runline (NL WEST GOY)

Despite what happens between these clubs on Wednesday (as we're writing this pick on Wednesday afternoon), we love this particular pitching matchup and while we clearly feel an outright victory is possible, in the end we'll recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. We feel this is a starting pitching mismatch that should in fact be more in favor of the visiting side here, with Landon Knack (1-1, 2.08 ERA) getting WAY too much respect from the oddsmakers in our estimation. Knack gave up one run on a no-decision over four innings vs. the Giants last time out. He's been great overall, but the sample size is still WAY too small for us and we say regression is now imminent. And that makes Arizona starter Zac Gallen (6-4, 2.83 ERA) the correct call in this matchup. Gallen enters on top form after allowing one hit and a walk with no runs and striking out seven over six in a victory over the A's on Saturday. With a 67:16 K:BB so far, we say that the wrong team is likely favored here. We bet totals, we bet underdogs, and we aren't afraid to lay chalk either. Overall we've come to the final conclusion that laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs is well worth it, making the Diamondbacks on the runline option our NL WEST GOY for 2024!

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10* Orioles runline (BEST OF BEST)

Despite this being a large home spread here for the desperate Orioles, nearly 80% of the early public money is on the home side. And we can understand why, as Baltimore has lost five in a row now, including the first two games of this series. We don't mind laying chalk, but we absolutely feel the more prudent wager here is to in fact lay the 1.5 runs for the much better price, as we predict that the Orioles will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Baltimore is in fact 7-3 in its last ten after five or more losses in a row. It's been a while since that's happened, but it's still a noteworthy trend to point out for sure obviously. This is the opponent to get the job done against as well, as clearly veteran Carlos Carrasco has fallen off, entering 3-6 with a 5.40 ERA. He'll be opposed by Grayson Rodriguez, who is 8-3 with a 3.82 ERA; the play is Baltimore on the runline option!

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8* D-Backs runline (PITCHERS MISMATCH)

Arizona is playing a lot better and is one game under .500 after winning seven of its last ten. The Philles are also rolling this year and are 49-25 overall. For us though, this one comes down to the starting pitching. Jordan Montgomery gets the call for the home side and he's 5-4 with a 6.00 ERA overall, but he's coming off his second straight win after allowing just one run over five innings in a win over the White Sox. He'll be opposed by Taijuan Walker, who is currently enduring a six start winless skid, most recently falling to 0-2 during that span after allowing three runs off six hits over five innings in a 6-2 loss to the Orioles on Saturday. These starters are suddenly moving in opposite directions, and we're going to step in here at this moment to capatalize. While the outright win is clearly possible, we feel more comfortable with this wager by laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Arizona on the runline option!

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8* Royals runline (DESTROYER)

The Royals have lost four in a row and the first three of this series, but we're anticipating the Yanks finally having a letdown here as they get caught looking ahead to their series starting at division rival Boston tomorrow. KC on the other hand is in fact 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge three or more loss vs. an opponent. Nestor Cortes Jr. (3-5, 3.68 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Alec Marsh (5-3, 4.05) counters for the home side. We say KC digs deep here and delivers AT LEAST the ATS cover; the play is KC on the runline option!

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10* Rays runline (AL EAST GOM)

After three straight losses to open this series, we like the home side to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire or even into extra innings. Because of that, and when taking into account the extreme overall affordability of this line, we're going to recommend grabbing Tampa on the runline option. After this Baltimore has three straight at home vs. Atlanta, followed by Philadelphia and the Yankees. Would anyone fault the visitors getting caught "looking ahead" here?! No such luxury though for the hungry Rays obviously, but note that they are in fact still 21-11 in their last 32 in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Corbin Burnes is 6-2 with a 2.26 ERA for the Orioles, while Ryan Pepiot is 4-2 with a 3.96 ERA for the Rays. Look for Pepiot to match Burnes inning for inning and in a scenario like that, we find that the value for sure swings to the undervalued underdog. Overall just great value here by taking Tampa on the runline option!

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6* Dodgers runline (BIG-CHALK ROUT)

We're going to lay the chalk here for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. LA comes in off the 2-1 series opening win yesterday and hands the ball to Gavin Stone (6-2, 2.90 ERA), while the home side counters with Nestor Cortes Jr. (3-4, 3.46 ERA.) Both have been great and we're anticipating another "nail biter" here. Sure, the outright win is possible, but we still feel we're getting a great price overall here with the runline option; and that's the play, LA on the runline!

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6* Giants runline (HIGH-HEAT)

We're going to lay the price here and expect San Francisco to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the spread option (runline.) Enough is enough here for San Fran, which enters having lost six in a row and the first two games of this series. Arizona looks primed for a letdown in our estimation after four straight wins and it's also a "look-ahead" spot with a tough four-game series starting in San Diego tomorrow. We're giving the big nod to Jordan Hicks (4-2, 2.70 ERA) in this starting pitching matchup over his struggling counterpart Jordan Montgomery (3-3, 5.48.) We have no issues laying this larger price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is indeed on San Francisco on the runline option!

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10* Jays runline (AL EAST GOW)

Both teams have been playing well, but in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to suggest laying what we deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. We have two really good starters here in Grayson Rodriguez for the Orioles and Kevin Gausman for the Jays. These teams split two games in Baltimore in mid-May, with one game being postponed. But now here back in Toronto, we feel that the hungrier home side does indeed have a legit shot at taking this first of four games in this series outright, but the official will be indeed to take the Jays on the runline option!

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8* Cardinals runline (MISMATCH)

In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two really good starters going head-to-head here in Sonny Gray for the Cards and Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Regression does seem imminent at some point for Suarez after his sparkling start. Despite yesterday's 4-2 series-opening loss here, St. Louis has turned the corner with its play having won seven of its last nine. While the outright upset is possible, the official call is to grab the Cards on the runline option!

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10* Giants runline (IL GOW)

In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay what we deem to be a very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. New York is 20-11 on the road, but San Fran is 17-11 at home. The Yanks just took two of three at LA, but they lost the first one by a score of 4-3. The Giants will now look to do the same here on Friday. The Giants took two of three from Philly here, and have had a day off since the 6-1 defeat in the finale. Marcus Stroman has been great for the Yanks, but we're still giving the nod here to Jordan Hicks at home. The outright is very possible, but for all the situational reasons listed above, our official call here is to grab San Francisco on the runline option!

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8* Royals runline (BLOOD-BATH)

The Royals won as an underdog yesterday here in the PNW and while we do feel that have a legit shot at winning outright here as well on Wednesday, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the end. Alec Marsh is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA for the Royals, while Bryan Woo is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Mariners. Woo is coming off a no-decision in his first outing of the year last time out and this is his first look at the Royals in his caeer. Marsh is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA and 15 K's over 11 innings vs. the Mariners in his career. Lay the price, grab the 1.5 runs because the play is indeed on Kansas City on the runline option!

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8* Royals runline (DESTRUCTION)

In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two decent teams here and would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to come out on top. We feel that Brady Singer (3-1, 2.36 ERA) of the Royals though, will at the very least, match his counterpart George Kirby (3-3, 4.15) inning for inning tonight, and in a scenario like that, the value invariably swings to the undervalued underdog. And that's the case here in our opinion. Lay the price for the runline option; the play is indeed on KC on the runline!

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Mets runline (BLAST-OFF)

We're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Aaron Civale is just 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA for the Rays, while Jose Quintana is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA for the Mets. Tampa has scored two or fewer runs in four straight and six of its past nine. The Mets got back on track with a 7-6 win over the Cubs yesterday and we expect them to keep that momentum rolling here. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; lay the price, the play is New York on the runline option!

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8* Guardians runline (DESTROYER)

The Guardians lost the opener of this series by a score of 10-9, but then bounced back with the tight 3-2 win last night. In what we predict will be another "nail-biter" here in the finale, we're going to comfortably lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Logan Allen is 3-2 with a 5.46 ERA for the Guardians, while Spencer Arrighetti is 0-3 with a 10.97 ERA for the Astros. Neither is very appealing, but give us Allen in what will be a bullpen game for the Astros. The Guardians are now 12-6 on the road, while Houston is now 5-10 at home; lay the price, the play is Cleveland on the runline option!

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10* Jays runline (ASSASSIN)

After getting blown out in yesterday's series opener by a score of 12-2, we're expecting Toronto to be much more competitive here on Saturday. It was the Jays' fourth straight loss. It was LA's fifth straight win. Tyler Glasnow is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA for the Dodgers, while Yusei Kikuchi is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA for the Jays. We expect Kikuchi to match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a scenario like that it's the undervalued home dog that does indeed become the savvy wager in our estimation; while the outright is clearly possible, our official call is Toronton the runline option!

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10* Jays runline (ASSASSIN)

We feel that Toronto is really undervalued here. That brings extra value to the runline option overall in our opinion. The Dodgers are 16-11 overall, while Toronto is 13-12. LA has won four straight now after winning three in a row in the Nation's capital this week. Now though travelling North of the border, we're expecting a small step back. Toronto enters on the other end of the spectrum, as it's now lost three straight after falling 2-1 in five innings at KC last night. The Jays have the clear starting pitching matchup in their favor though, with Gavin Stone (1-1, 6.00 ERA) going for the Dodgers, and Chris Bassitt (2-3, 3.90) countering for the home side. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Toronto on the runline option!

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8* Royals runline (BIG-CHALK)

Two teams that are surging collide here. Two starting pitchers that have gotten out to decent starts as well go head-to-head. Despite that though, we still feel that the 12-10 Blue Jays are the ones getting a little TOO much respect here on the road vs. the 13-9 Royals. Each team is doing well on the mound, and at the plate, but we just can't understate how important we feel that the home-field advantage will prove for Brady Singer (2-0, 1.54 ERA vs. his counterpart today in Yusei Kikuchi (1-1, 2.08.) Toronto just had its win streak snapped in last night's 5-3 loss at San Diego and we say this is a "letdown" spot here now in the opener of this AL series in this difficult road venue; lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs with the Royals on the runline option!

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10* Rangers runline (ASSASSIN)

After two straight losses to open this series, we like the Rangers to, at the very least, take the finale "right down to the wire," meaning that the "runline option" becomes the savvy call in our opinion. Michael Lorenzen is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after shutting out the Tigers over five innings in his last outing. He's off a career-high 153 innings last year. The Braves counter with Darius Vines, who is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA after allowing one run over four innings in a win over Houston. He's filling in for Spencer Strider for at least one more start, and regression feels/seems imminent to us now moving forward. Look for the revenge-minded visiting side to fight tooth and nail; the play is Texas on the runline option!

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10* Blue Jays runline (AL EAST GOM) *Note, we also like Toronto on the moneyline.

We have an important early season divisional American League East getaway game North of the border between the Yanks and the Jays and despite the slow start for Kevin Gausman so far this season, we think the veteran will finally settle down here and we actually think that the value in this game is on the Blue Jays. Divisional games are always the most important, and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Toronto has taken the first two games of this series and now we look for the Jays to comoplete the sweep. Kevin Gausman hasn't suddenly forgot how to pitch and his first two starts are just outliers in our opinion (Gausman is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.) But Gausman has been one of the league's top 5 pitchers the last two years. He did lose to the Yanks in his opening start, and then in his last start he got roughed up by the Rockies. But the public saw that and has seen him struggle to start overall, but we're in the camp that believe's that there's a big overreaction now and the value has swung the other way (remember, Gausman had a 3.08 ERA at home last year. We're not taking anything away from Marcus Stroman on the Yanks (he's facing his former team in the Jays here again) as he's 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. The bottom line here though is that we just think the public is too quick to back the Yankees still after their quick start and we're also not going to OVERREACT to Gausman's shaky start; the play is Toronto!

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10* Guardians runline Game 1 (ASSASSIN)

Overall we're getting great value on the home side on the runline option here. Public perception about the Yanks has driven this line out of whack in our opinion. New York is 10-3, while Cleveland is 9-3. Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 4.66 ERA) gets the call for the Yankees and he's allowed five runs off 13 hits over nine innings this year. He'll be opposed by Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 4.50), who has conceded four runs over eight innings. We like Carrasco here at home, as we feel Scmidt will struggle in this difficult road venue. While we clearly feel an outright victory is possible, in the end we're laying this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline option!

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10* D-Backs runline (NL GOM)

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA after his first start for the D-Backs, wihle Max Fried is 0-0 with a 40.50 ERA for the Braves. Fried couldn't get out of the first inning in his first start, but he's still considered to be one of the best pitchers in the World. That said, we're fully expecting Pfaadt to match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a contest like that, the value invariably swings to the undervauled underdog. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the talented visting side on the runline option!

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8* Marlins (RUNLINE DOMINATION)

Let's not overreact to early results, for either players, or teams. That said, at 0-7 the Marlins will be looking to snap the slide here and in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we'll recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Lance Lynn is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after throwing four scoreless innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Lynn's start was cut short by rain. He's a pedestrian 4-3 with a 5.48 ERA in ten appearances vs. the Fish though. Miami counters with Ryan Weathers, who is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, forced into the rotation out of necessity. He most recentlh allowed three run over four innings in a 9-3 loss to the red hot Pirates on Saturday. In two career appearances vs. the Cards though he's given up two runs over five innings. We look for the desperate and winless Marlins to, at they very least, keep this one a one run ball game and cover with the spread option; the play is Miami on the runline!

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10* Phillies RUNLINE (NL GOM)

The Phillies looked decent over the first half of yesterday's contest, but then fell apart once the bullpen took over. With Aaron Nola on the hill today though, we like Philadelphia to, at the very least, keep this one tight/close enough to cover with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Braves won yesterday's series opener 9-3, but we like the home side to respond here on Saturday. Fried was 8-1 witha  2.55 ERA last year, but he's 4-4 with a 3.62 ERA in 19 career games vs. Philadelphia. Nola was 12-9 wth a 4.46 ERA last year and he's 15-10 with a 3.40 ERA in 33 career starts vs. Atlanta. Nola just signed a new massive contract in the off-season and we're expecting him to deliver the goods here; lay the reasonable mid-sized price, the play is Philly on the runline option!

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10* D-Backs RUNLINE (NLCS GOY)

If you're watching this game, then you know the story lines of each team to this point, as well as the cast of characters on each side. Zach Wheeler has been better than Zach Gallen so far in the post-season, but honetly it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these starters to come out on top in this pressure packed situation. Gallen definitely benefits from throwing at home. Wheeler has experience, but we say this starting pitching matchup (for all intents and purposes), is a "wash." Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor in the playoffs and it's one that we've found that the oddsmakers have a hard time in properly quantifying into a line at times. Arizona has definitely wrestled back the momentum in this series after going down 0-2 in Philadelphia to start and to get an extra 1.5 runs of insurance at this price is just too good to to turn down in the end; so that's the play, Arizona on the runline option!

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10* D-Backs runline (ASSASSIN)

We had a play on Arizona on the runline yesterday and where that play came up short, we're expecting this Game 2 contest to now deliver the goods in "rocking chair" fashion. We won't rule out an outright victory here obviously either, but at this decent mid-sized price, getting the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is just too good to turn down in our opinion. The D-Backs go with Merrill Kelly (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.79 WHIP), while the home side counters with Aaron Nola (2-0, 1.42, 0.87.) Very evenly matched teams and clubs and in a contest that we seeing being decided late, or even in extras, we're indeed laying the price for Arizona on the runline option!

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10* D-Backs runline (NLCS GOW)

If you're watching and wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly know the story line for each club up to this point, so there's no reason to give you a breakdown of how each club got to this point. You likely also already know the cast of characters for each side, the coaches and the players and also each team's strengths and weaknesses. We're just here to tell you why we think that the D-Backs can pull off the upset here, or at the very least, keep it close enough to cover on the runline option. And it's simple, the starting pitching matchup is very even, but we definitely think that Zac Gallen (2-0, 3.18 ERA) will be able to easily match his counterpart Zach Wheeler (1-0, 2.08) inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value invariably swings to the undervalued underdog; the play is Arizona!

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10* D-Backs runline (NLDS BOB)

Arizona has a shot at eliminating the Dodgers here and we're expecting that to happen. That said, for this price, we can't turn down the home side on the runline option. Arizona has scored nine first-inning runs so far in this series, and we're expecting this very real momentum that it's created to be carried over here. Often we've found that oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying in factors like "momentum" into a line, and that's definitely the case here with Arizona, which is clearly "firing on all cylinders" right now. LA hands the ball to Lance Lynn, while the home side counters with Brandon Pfaadt. Each has struggled, but Arizona's home field advantage, its bullpen and its offense has been "on point" of late and because of that, we're going to play Arizona on the runline option here in Game 3 of this NLDS!

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10* D-Backs runline (NLDS GOW)

Arizona is rolling, and dangerous and we think it's once again undervalued in this matchup. After steamrolling the Brewers in two games, the D-Backs smoked the Dodgers 11-2 in Game 1. Now with the superior starter on the hill (in our opinion anyways), we feel that Arizona has a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. However, in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to ace Zac Gallen (1-0, 3.00 ERA) has had difficulties with the Dodgers this year, but he's off the great start vs. the Brewers and this is a case of "that was then, and this is now!" The Dodgers' bullpen was taxed in Game 1 and now they turn to Bobby Miller (11-4, 3.76,) who has been great in his rookie year, but who clearly is in unchartered territory here; lay the price, the play is indeed on  Arizona on the runline option!

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8* Mariners runline (BLOWOUT)

I had the Mariners last night in their 6-2 win, breaking a four-game slide. Seattle is now just a .5 game back of the Astros for the Wildcard. They play Houston again here tonight, followed by four straight at home vs. NL West-leading Texas to end the regular season. Houston won't be rolling over here, but in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we feel we're getting supreme value here with the home side on the runlien option at this price. Houston turns to Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.39 ERA), while the homeside counters with Bryce Miller (8-6, 4.17.) These guys are a "wash" essentially. For all the reasons liste above, the play is Seattle on the runline option!

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10* Cubs runline (BOB)

We had a play on the Cubs on the runline last night, and while we think Chicago has a legitimate shot at winning tonight's contest outright as well, in the end we can't turn the overall value we feel we're getting by grabbing the desperate visiting side on the runline option again here. Chicago is fighting for a wildcard still, while ATL is just trying to hold off the Dodgers for the No. 1 seed. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're once again all over Chicago on the runline option!

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10* Cubs RUNLINE (BOB)

The Cubs have a lot to play for here with just six games left to go in the regular season. Chicago is trying to nail down one of the NL's final two WC spots. They're in a dog fight with Arizona and Miami. Atlanta is just trying to hold off the Dodgers for the No. 1 seed, so its less urgent for them here. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we think Justin Steele (16-5, 3.00 ERA) and the visitors are the correct call here on the runline option vs. Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.63) and the contented home side; for all the reasons listed above, the plya is Chicago on the runline!

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10* Jays RUNLINE (U OF THE U)

A big divisional series, more so for the Jays though who are in a dog fight for the final AL Wildcard. Good news for Toronto fans though, the Jays have caught fire of late and we're fully expecting that momentum to get carried over here. Last night they won the opener by a score of 6-2. We're coming down the home stretch, and these types of games very much have a "playoff-like" atmosphere about them. In what we anticipate will be a very tight and competitive affair here today, we're going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; a great situational play, the play is Toronto on the runline option!

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8* Royals runline (BLOWOUT)

The Astros have lost three straight series and they're just 39-39 at home after salvaging the finale of its series with Baltimore with a tight 2-1 win. Houston is only a .5 game up on the Rangers in the AL West and in a tight race now for a wildcard. Now Cole Ragans (4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP for his new team) and the Royals will look to play spoiler in this series. Framber Valdez (12-10, 3.20) counters for the home side. I like Ragans to easily match Valdez and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog invariably. The play is KC on the runline option!

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8* Phillies RUNLINE (ROUT)

The Phillies are trying their hardest to earn the top NL Wildcard. Winning this series on the road here vs. the NL-leading Braves would help for sure. The Phillies won the opener, and then the Braves responded on Tuesday. Now here in the finale, we're expecting a very competitive affair. And in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to recommend to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. These starters are a "wash," with Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.62 ERA) goes for the visitors, and Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.50) counters for the home side. In this competitive contest, we're laying the price for the Phillies on the runline option!

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10* Phillies RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

The Phillies are gunning for the TOP NL wildcard spot, and they won an important game last night in the opener of this series. In what we believe will be another tightly-contested and highly-competitive affair, the value in our opinion lies with the visitors on the "runline" option. Cristopher Sanchez (2-4, 3.40 ERA) gets the call for the Phillies, while Spencer Strider (17-5, 3.73 ERA) We'll argue that Strider is having an above average season, on a really good team. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Philadelphia on the runline!

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10* Orioles RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

A big divisional series here, and after yesterday's 4-3 loss in Game 1, we expect Baltimore to respond on Friday. The Orioles have now lost three straight, and note that Baltimore if 4-1 in its last five after three or more straight losses in a row. Zach Eflin (14-8, 3.53 ERA) is just in the wrong place at the wrong time here for the Rays. Jack Flaherty (8-8, 4.98) will finally get a chance to bounce back here for his new team. We expect the veteran to match his counterpart. Great overall value here in getting the extra 1.5 runs of insurance - the play is Baltimore on the runline option!

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10* Astros runline (ASSASSIN)

No need to overanalyze this one. After dropping the first two games of this series, we like the Astros to not only win the finale here on Sunday night MLB, but to do so in blowout fashion. And that makes the runline option the correct call in our opinion. Michael King (3-5, 2.96 ERA) has been solid for New York, but we feel he's for sure in the "wrong place at the wrong time" tonight. His counterpart Christian Javier (9-2, 4.66 ERA) is the correct call; lay the 1.5 runs and expect a blowout!

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10* Astros runline (DOMINATION)

We not only expect Houston to win today, but we believe it'll do so in "blowout fashion," meaning that the runline option is definitely the savvy call in our estimation. Houston's five game win streak came to an end in yesterday's 6-2 loss, but note that the Astros are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The bottom line here as well is that this is a starting pitching matchup that we definitely believe favors the home side, with the Yanks going with the erratic Luis Severino (4-8, 6.64 ERA), and the Astros countering with Hunter Brown (10-9, 4.47.) Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a decisive blowout!

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10* Marlins runline (ASSASSIN)

If the Marlins are going to make the playoffs, they'll have to win on the road, and they'll have to compete with the top teams in the league. Both of those factors will be on the line here in their trip to LA, and in a competitive opening contest that we foresee being decided late, or even in extra innings, we're going to grab the hungry Fish on the runline option. Sandy Alcantara (5-10, 4.09 ERA) is coming off his strongest outing of the year, giving up one run and striking out ten in a complete-game victory over the Yanks. It would appear that Alcantara has plenty left in the tank here now for a final push to the season (he owns a 1.69 ERA over his last four trips to the hill.) He hasn't fared well against LA in the past, but this is a case of that being then, and this being now. Tony Gonsolin (8-4, 4.24) counters for the home side, and he's coming off a strong outing against the Rockies, allowing one run over six innings. After 11 straight wins, we think LA is now complacent. No such luxury for the hungry Marlins though; the play is Miami on the runline.

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10* Phillies RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

After dropping three straight, including the first game of this series, we like the Phillies to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire, meaning that the runline option is the savvy call for sure here as far as making a play on the side. We don't trust the Jays to pull off the sweep. We think these starters are very evenly matched, with Philly going with Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.49 ERA), and the Jays countering with Kevin Gausman (9-6, 3.04.) Philadelphia comes in desperate to snap the three-game slide, and while we do believe the outright win is possible, the runline option at this price is the correct call in our opinion; the play is Philadelphia on the runline option! 

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10* Braves runline (BLOOD-BATH)

The Yanks are just 60-58, including only 25-30 on the road and I believe that New York will not only lose this game, but it'll lost in blowout fashion. ATL is 75-42 overall, including 37-20 at home. NY just lost two of three to the Marlins over the weekend, including a late collapse in last night's 8-7 setback. With the thought of that crushing defeat fresh on the front of their collective mind, I say NY is ripe for the picking here. And I expect ATL to have no mercy. The Braves took three of four from the Mets, but dropped yesterday's contest by a score of 7-6. Clarke Schmidt (8-6, 4.23 ERA) gets the call for the Yanks, while Max Fried (3-1, 2.50) counters for the Braves. We give Fried the big nod here in this matchup; lay the 1.5 runs on Atlanta!

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10* Astros RUNLINE (TOP VALUE)

A big time matchup between AL leading teams. This is a big time starting pitching mismatch working in favor of the Astros though, and we believe Houston will not only win this opening game, but will do so in blowout fashion. And that makes the runline option the savvy call here. Baltimore has been great this year, but we still feel that when faced with the elite teams in the league, the Orioles will struggle. Especially their starting pitching. This is a mismatch on the mound. The Astros go with Framber Valdez (9-7, 3.07 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), while the visitors counter with Grayson Rodriguez (2-3, 6.09, 1.50.) Expect Houston to send an early message here with a resounding victory; grab the visitors on the runline option!

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10* Padres runline (NL WEST GOM)

We like the Padres to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the spread option. After droppping the opener 10-5, the Padres bounced back with an 8-3 victory last night. THis is the third game of a four-game series. Both starters are making debuts for their new teams, but we give the advantage to veteran Rich Hill (7-10, 4.76 ERA) here at home. He'll face off against the volatile Lance Lynn (7-9, 6.32.) Look for the home-field advantage to be the difference-maker here, and while clearly the outright is possible, we feel more comfortable laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is San Diego on the runline option!

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8* Orioles RUNLINE (CHOKE-OUT)

This is an important divisional series, and the Orioles drew "first blood" last night, winning by a score of 4-2. Toronto can't lose games to the division leader and expect to make the playoffs. The Orioles can continue to stick the dagger into the Jays' dwindling hopes. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Kyle Bradish (6-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) has been a consistent bright spot for the Orioles all year. He's battle-tested. Hyun-Jin Ryu though is making his season debut for the Jays. He's being thrown to the wolves here in his first start. The outright is possible, but we feel more comfortable taking the visitors on the runline option!

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8* Rangers runline (MISMATCH)

After dropping the first two games of this series, and with nealry 70% of the public money on the home side, we're expecting the Rangers to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to grab the 1.5 runs of insurance here with the Rangers. Cody Bradford is 2-1 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP for Texas. He owns a sharp 32 to 8 strike-out-to-walk-ratio as well. The Padres counter with Blake Snell, who is 7-8 with a 2.61 ERA. We just see Bradford matching Snell inning for inning, and in a contest like that we like the visitors on the runline option!

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8* Rangers runline (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION)

We like the Rangers to bounce back on Saturday after falling 7-1 to the Padres in yesterday's series opener. The Padres have been inconsistent all year and we don't trust Yu Darvish (7-7, 4.80 ERA) at all. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez (8-3, 4.91), who we feel is the correct call for sure. The Rangers have responded well in this spot for bettors and while we do think the outright is possible, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs; the play is Texas on the runline!

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8* Angels RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

LA had won 8 of 9 before last night's 4-1 series opening loss here. The Angels are 3-1 in their last four after a loss. We think they'll respond here vs. the Jay's "weak link" in Alek Manoah (2-8, 6.10 ERA), who has been a major disappointment. He'll be opposed by Reid Detmers (2-7, 4.38), who we feel is the correct call in this bounce-back spot. That said, lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs; the play is LA on the runline option!

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8* Jays RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

The Jays went 1-1 in Seattle over the weekend, and are coming off the 4-3 win last night. We think the visitors can keep the momentum rolling here in LA. The Dodgers just went 2-1 at the Rangers, but are coming off an 8-4 loss yesterday. The bottom line with this one though is that this is a starting pitching matchup that definitely favors Toronto. The Jays turn to Jose Berrios (8-7, 3.39 ERA), while the home side counters with the volatile Michael Grove (2-2, 6.40), who remains in a starters role out of neccessity. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the price with confidence for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Toronto on the runline option!

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10* Orioles runline (ASSASSIN)

Both teams came into the second half on big runs, but it's been the Dodgers who have taken the first two games of this series, including yesterday's contest by a score of 10-3. Note though that the Orioles are still 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. With a tough series at Texas up next, we expect the visiting side to finally get caught looking ahead. These starters are evenly matched, as the Dodgers go with Julio Urias (7-5, 4.35 ERA), while the home side counters with Dean Kremer (10-4, 4.59), but the situational and trend based-factors working in Baltimores favor do indeed make the home side the correct call. But we're laying the short price, and grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Baltimore on the runline option!

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10* White Sox runline (ASSASSIN)

Toronto shouldn't be favored here just because it's win/loss record is better overall. The Jays are just 22-22 on the road as well. They come in with zero momentum after getting swept at home by the Red Sox. The White Sox lost two of three at Oakland over the weekend, but they bounced back with an 8-7 win in the finale. Chris Bassitt is 8-5 with a 4.06 ERA for Toronto, while Lucas Giolito is 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA for the White Sox. Giolito gets the slight nod here and in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, the play is indeed on Chicago on the runline option!

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8* Marlins runline (SPECIAL)

No need to overanlayze this one. St. Louis is terrible this year, just 35-49 overall, including only 18-24 on the road. Miami is decent this season, 49-37 overall, including 26-16 at home. We think the Fish will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. The bottom line is that this is a complete starting pitching mismatch: the Cards go with Adam Wainwright (3-3, 7.45 ERA), while the home side counters with Jesus Luzardo (6-5, 3.53.) Lay the 1.5 runs for the return; the play is Miami on the runline option!

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8* Jays runline (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH)

After back-to-back losses to open this series, including on Canada Day on Saturday, we're expecting the Jays to dig deep and not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. And that then makes the "runline" option the savvy move, laying the 1.5 runs for the "near pick em" price. Note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. Two good starters, but we'll give the nod to the Jays' ace at home here. Boston goes with Garrett Whitlock, who is 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA, while Toronto goes with Kevin Gausman, who is 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA. Lay the 1.5 runs, the play is Toronto on the runline.

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8* Mariners runline (SPECIAL)

After three straight losses, including a humbling 15-4 beatdown in the opener of this series here last night, we like the Mariners to dig deep and find a way to deliver. That said, in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Note that Seattle is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Tyler Glasnow is 2-1 with a 4.45 ERA for the Rays, but we still give the battle-tested George Kirby the nod in this one, sitting at 6-7 with a 3.26 ERA. Lay the price and grab Seattle on the runline option!

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10* D-Backs runline (BOB)

In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Two teams in different leagues, but each has had a similar trajectory to this point. Each just went 1-2 in their respective series this week. These starters are pretty evenly matched, as Arizona turns to Tommy Henry, who is 4-1 with a 4.31 ERA, while the home side counters with Griffin Canning, who is 6-2 with a 3.99 ERA. Good value here, lay the price and grab the visitors on the runline.

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10* Red Sox (ASSASSIN)

This is a big mid-season AL East series. These teams are lagging behind the Rays, but anything is possible at this point of the season. We see this game being decided late, or even in extras, therefore we're going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Red Sox have lost five straight now, but note that they're 8-3 in their last 11 after five or more straight losses in a row. These starters are evenly matched, as James Paxton (3-1, 3.19 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while the home side counters with Jose Berrios (8-5, 3.60.) Everything points to a tight battle, the play is Boston on the runline option.

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8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT On the Twins RUNLINE.

We feel this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the Twins to bounce back in the finale of this three-game series with, at the very least, a solid ATS cover on the runline option. Note that Minnesota is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Despite being 1-4 with a 6.86 ERA, we still Kenta Maeda the nod over his  counterpart Kolby Allard, who makes his season debut here tonight. Maeda actually returned from a two-month injury last Friday and looked dominant, going five scoreless vs. the Tigers (8 K's.) In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the hungry visiting side on the runline option!

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10* Rangers RUNLINE (VALUE POW)

Here's two teams in need of a win. That said, home field advantage can't be overlooked here in this particular matchup between two good pitchers that have been struggling of late. Toronto has lost four of its last six, including two of three at Baltimore earlier this week, while Texas has lost six of eight. Kevin Gausman (5-3, 3.12 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, while Martin Perez (6-2, 4.67) toes the slab for the home side. Perez has allowed 14 runs over his last three starts, but we expect him to settle down here. Note that he's 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA over his last four starts here at Globe Life Field. Gausman got rocked in his last outing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits with four walks over just four innings. Overall we feel we're getting great value here on grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Texas on the runline option!

AAA Sports

8* play on Tigers runline.

We like the Tigers to bounce back off yesterday's series opening 5-0 loss. Note that Detroit is 3-1 in its last four in trying to avenge a loss at home as a dog vs. an opponent. Martin Perez is 6-1 with a 3.83 ERA for the Rangers, while Alex Faedo is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA for the Tigers. Faedo is coming in with a ton of momentum here though off his best start of his career, striking out ten and allowing just two runs with no walks over six innings in the eventual 7-2 win over the White Sox. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Detroit on the runline option!

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8* Pirates runline (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION)

While we do feel an outright win is possible, our official call will be to grab the home side on the "runline" option. Great value here paying a mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extra time. Pittsburgh won the opener 13-3, but then fell 4-3 yesterday. Note thought that the Pirates are 3-1 in their last four in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs an opponent. Merril Kelly is 4-3 with a 2.92 ERA for the D-Backs, but we're calling him a "wash" on the road here with Pirates' starer Roansy Contreras, who is 3-4 with a 4.40 ERA. Each has had success against his opponent in the past, but all signs point to this one being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is Pittsburgh on the runline option!

AAA Sports

10* Jays RUNLINE (ULTIMATE BLOOD-BATH)

We had a play on the Jays yesterday and while that big pick unfortunatley came up short, we're confident that Toronto can bounce back here and avenge the opening two losses of this four-game series. Two really good starters here. Is almost impossible to say anything negative about Yanks' starter Gerritt Cole, who is 5-0 with a 2.22 ERA. We just feel he's finally in the "wrong place" at the "wrong time" today. He'll be opposed by Chris Bassitt, who is 5-2 with a 3.49 ERA. These guys are a "wash," but note that the Jays are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to avenge two or more straight home losses against an opponent. We're laying the price here though and grabbing the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Toronto on the runline option!

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10* Pirates RUNLINE (BLOWOUT)

The Pirates were the talk of the league over the first month, but they've come back down to Earth over the last three weeks. Pittsburgh is now just 2-14 in its last 15 after yesterday's 4-0 series opening loss. Note though that Pittsburgh is still 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge a shutout loss against an opponent. Detroit is 19-21, but we expect Eduardo Rodriguez to have his hands full today. The Detroit starter is 4-2 with a 1.57 ERA, while Rich Hill is 3-3 with a 4.35 ERA for Pittsburgh. We don't trust Detroit as such a large favorite, despite it being at home. Look for Hil to match Rodriguez inning for inning and in a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the desperate visiting side on the "runline" option!

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10* Rockies RUNLINE (NL GOY)

At 20-15, Pittsburgh is still No. 1 in the NL Central. The Pirates "quick start" was the talk of the league, but the Pirates are now dealing with injuries to a few key players and they enter the new week and this new series having lost seven in a row. We think this slide of futility is going to continue, at least for another night. The Rockies are just 14-21 and only fifth in the NL West, but they enter playing their best ball of the season thus far, having won six of their last seven, including two of three at the Mets over the week (13-6 win on Sunday.) We feel these starting pitchers are a "wash." Kyle Freeland is 3-3 with a 3.76 ERA for the Rockies, while Mitch Keller is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA for the Pirates. Momentum swings in favor of the Rockies here. Outright win is obviously possible, but the value here lies in laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Colorado on the runline option!

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10* Astros runline (BEST OF BEST)

Two really good teams. Two really good pitchers. The Rays are 19-3 this season, including 13-0 at home. The defending champs are starting to play better after a slow start though, now 12-10 overall, including 6-3 on the road. The fact that the Rays have yet to suffer a home loss will be a big motivating factor for Houston here obviously. Jose Urquidy is 1-1 with a 3.66 ERA for the visitors, while Taj Bradley is 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA for the home side. I say these starters are a "wash." In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extra innings, we're laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Houston on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* D-Backs RUNLINE (NL WEST GOY)

We feel that that home side has a very real shot of winning this game outright, but at this price, we're getting fantastic value on the runline option here. Guess who leads the NL West rigth now? It's not the Padres, the Giants or the Dodgers. It's the D-Backs at 11-8. San Diego is 9-11. Earlier in the year these teams split a two-game series in San Diego. Arizona though is tied for sixth in the league in steals with 19. That's bad news for a Padres team that allows a lot of steals. Michael Wacha gets the nod for SD and he's 2-1 with a 6.06 ERA, while the home side counter with Ryne Nelson, who is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA. Half of Nelson's six career starts have come against the Friars, so this is a team that he knows well (1-1, 3.12 ERA.) Wacha is 2-1 with a 3.82 ERA lifetime vs. the D-Backs. Wacha had a bounce-back season last year, but regression seems imminent, epsecially after a slow start in 2023. Tatis returns finally for the Padres, but we expect him to come out slow here in his very first game back. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is Arizona on the runline!

AAA Sports

10* Jays RUNLINE (ULTIMATE)

I had a play on the Rays yesterday in their 9-3 win over the Red Sox. Tampa is now 13-0 and the longer this winning streak continues to open the season for the Rays, the more unrealistic and unsustainable it becomes. Tampa is also clearly being overvalued now at this point by the bookmakers, as the majority of the public, along with seasoned pros are now essentially "blind betting" the Rays, without any real thought put into it at all. These starting pitchers are a "wash." I can make a good argument for either of these talented sides to win, but this comes down to the fact that the public and the oddsmakers have overvalued Tampa now at this point because of the unreal start. Regression is imminent Tampa fans. Regardless, at this price and with the extra 1.5 rums of insurance, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Toronto on the runline option!

AAA Sports

8* Royals runline (BLOOD-BATH)

Both teams are 1-3. Both really need a win here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Both teams have struggled at the plate so far. I give the slight nod to Kris Bubic in this starting pitching matchup though. He was 3-13 with a 5.58 ERA last season, but he looked great in the Spring, going 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA spannning 11 innings, with 15 K's over five appearances. Yusei Kikuchi was just 6-7 with a 5.19 ERA last year. In five career starts vs. the Royals he's a pitiful 0-2 with an 8.69 ERA. The outright is possible, but the value here lies with the runline; and that's indeed the play here, KC on the runline option!

AAA Sports

8* play Tigers runline.

Detroit is another team that's started 0-3. The Astros looked great at times in their opening series, and pretty pedestrian in others. They're 2-2. Both starters saw limited action in 2022. Boyd was 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, and Brown was 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA. The Tigers went down hard in that series opener, but it wasn't for a lack of trying, striking out 30 times over three games. Boyd faced the Astros once back in 2021 and he conceded just one run off six hits with one walk and four K's over seven innings in the victory. The Astros looked pedestrian at the plate in their first series collectively (.227), so that leaves the door open here for the desperate visting side. Brown is young and his sample size is still too small to properly assess. I say regression is imminent; in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance with Detroit!

AAA Sports

8* play Phillies runline.

After starting the season 0-3, I think that Taijuan Walker can, at the very least, match his counterpart Nick Cortes Jr. inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, I feel the value swings to the desperate underdog visiting side. The Phillies are still missing key pieces in their hitting line-up. Taijuan Walker though is going to be the difference-maker in my opinion, as the veteran was 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA for the Mets last year. He faced the Yanks twice last season, going 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA over 11 innings. The Yanks are 2-1 after beating the Giants in their Opening series. Cortes Jr. went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA last year. The 0-3 sweep won't be sitting well with anyone in Philadelphia and I expect a much more concerted effort here. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option!

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8* play Tigers runline.

After an "off" year last year, Eduardo Rodriguez will be looking to bounce back after signing a big contract with the Tigers in 2021. Shane McClanahan was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA last year, but then he got a late shoulder injury. He's 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez was 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts last season. How long can the Rays keep maximizing their efforts with a smaller budget? I think Tampa is a bit overpriced here, but in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I am going to lay the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is the Tigers on the run-line option!

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6* Phillies RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

I think the Phillies offer great value here as an underdog at home. I GET that the Astros are a great team. They're experienced and filled with depth. The Phillies are filled with talent and they have their veteran ace on the hill to take care of business. These teams are evenly matched, but "momentum" is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports, and it's one in which I feel that the oddsmakers can at times have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. The Phillies have a clear home field advantage, and I expect them to, at the very least, keep Game 4 competitive throughout. For arguments sakes, let's call these starters and bullpens a "wash" at this point. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance!

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10* Phillies (GOW)

Philadelphia did what it set out to do over the first two games in Houston, and that was to earn a "split." The Phillies have enjoyed a home field advantage throughout the Playoffs, and I believe they'll ride the wave of emotion to another big victory here in Game 3 as well. The weather postponed yesterday's game and we have a new starter going for the home side. I say the overall situation favors the home side. Ranger Suarez goes for Philly, and he finished 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA in the regular season, and he's 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. will go again for Houston, he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA in the regular season and he's 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA in the playoffs. Philadelphia is 5-0 at home, and now the Astros are going to get a little taste of the craziness here at home; while I do think the outright is possible, I also believe we're getting unreal value here with the extra 1.5 runs of insurnace; the play is Philadelphia on the runline option!

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10* Phillies RUNLINE (WS GOY)

In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab Philadelphia on the runline option here in Game 1. This Game 1 has the "Any Given Sunday" sort of "feel" to it. The fact that the Astros are in the World Series isn't a shocker, but the Phillies path to this point has been unexpected. They had to fight to make the Wildcard, but since then they've looked unstoppable. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor in sports (especially in the playoffs) and it's one in which I've always felt that the oddsmakers have had a hard time propertly quantifying into a line at times. And that's the case here in my opinion. Aaron Nola has been great on the road all year and he eners with a 2-1, 3.12 ERA playoff record for the Phillies, while Justin Verlander is 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA for the Astros. Verlander got crushed in his last start, while Nola has been solid throughout. Give me the red hot Wheeler and the upstart Phillies to, at the very least, earn the ATS cover on the runline option!

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10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

I think that Logan Gilbert and the Mariners have much more than just a "puncher's chance" in Game 1 of this ALDS. The Wild Card teams have to blow through the top of their rotation, and then face the ace of their respective opponent in Game 1. Fortunately for the Mariners, they took care of business in two games. Sure, they'd rather have Luis Castillo going here in Game 1, but you can't front on Logan Gilbert, who finished 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this year. Now the good thing for Gilbert and the Mariners here as well, is that he was "lights out" on the road, going 8-1 with a 3.17 ERA. Clearly it won't be cake walk facing Justin Verlander, who was 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA. It's obviously impossible to say anything negative at all about Verlander, so I won't even bother. But the thing here is, I believe that Gilbert can match his veteran counterpart inning for inning to start with, and in a scenario like that, the value definitely swings to this hungry underdog. And with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, I love how this sets up for the Mariners on the runline option!

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10* ASTROS RUNLINE (IL GOW)

The Phillies clinched their first playoff spot in over ten years with their 3-0 win last night and I'm expecting an immediate letdown here. The Astros have already clinched and have home field advantage until the World Series, but they'll be anxious to get back on track here after last night's loss. I really like Phillies' starter Ranger Suarez, who is 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA, but I really like the Astros' Justin Verlander even more. Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.80 ERA and is the front runner for the AL Cy Young award. This game now means nothing to Philadelphia, but it sure means a lot to Verlander, who will try to cap off his brilliant campaign with one last brilliant performance. I expect Houston to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin; the play is Houston on the runline option!

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8* RAYS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

Yes, the Rays just clinched their fourth straight playoff appearance in yesterday's 7-3 win, but they are still trying to run down home-field advantage in the wild-card round. Even in defeat, the Astros clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with the Yankees loss on Friday. I say the "letdown" here doesn't come from the Rays, but rather from the Astros, who previously had won nine straight. Shane McClanahan is 12-7 with a 2.51 ERA for the Rays, while Christian Javier is 10-9 with a 2.65 ERA for the Astros. I expect a tight, competitive battle here, and while I do think an outright upset could happen, the best value in my opinion lies in laying the price for the visitors on the runline option; the play is Tampa on the runline!

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10* BRAVES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

For a number of different reasons, I believe the home side is well worth the price of admission here, as I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a critical series, as it will determine the NL East winner. I don't think that you can count out the Braves' experience in this moment. Home field advantage is also another big factor working in ATL's favor. These pitchers are essentially a "wash" as well, which definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Max Scherzer is 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA for the Mets, while Kyle Wright is 20-5 with a 3.18 ERA for the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the Braves on the runline option!

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10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

I had a play on Arizona yesterday on the runline and while that play came up short in the Astros 10-2 victory, I look for the visitors to bounce back here with a much better effor with their "ace" on the mound. Arizona will try to play spoiler here, as a win here tonight will clinch home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs for the Astros. Justin Verlander is 17-4 with a 1.82 ERA for the Astros, while Zac Gallen is 12-3 with a 2.46 ERA for the Diamondbacks. Each enters on top form and I'm expecting a classic "duel" here into the deep innings. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option!

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10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (IL GOW)

The Astros are still looking to post the best record in the American League, but I think they'll have their hands full in this interleague matchup. Houston needs just three more wins to lock up home field advantage, but Zach Davies and the D-Backs will look to postpone those arrangements for a bit longer. Davies is 2-4 with a 4.03 ERA. He's posted 11 straight no-decisions. He's made one start against the Astros though and looked good, conceding two runs off four hits with seven K's over eight innings. Arizon has dropped eight of its last 11, but four of those were one run setbacks. Lance McCullers Jr. is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA for Houston, but he's just 1-1 with a 6.86 ERA in four career starts vs. Arizona (and a pedestrian 4-4 wit a 3.85 ERA in all interleague contests.) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option!

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9* RANGERS RUNLINE (HAMMER BEATDOWN)

I think Glenn Otto and the Rangers have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. Texas had won two straight over the Angels, before a 6-3 setback here in the opener of this one. And after five straight victories, I expect a small letdown here finally from the visiting side. The Guardians let their guard down here after moving eight games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central. Cal Quantrill is 13-5 with a 3.56 ERA for the Guardians, while Otto is 6-9 with a 4.88 ERA for the Rangers. With the majority of the public money on Cleveland, I'm going contrarian here. That said, the value on the runline option is just too good to turn down. In a contest that I see being extremely competitive, I'm grabbing the home side on the runline

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10* ORIOLES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Baltimore won't be rolling over here. It's in the hunt for a playoff wildcard. It comes in on top form as well, winning three straight. That includes the firt two games of this series, winning 2-0 and 6-0. Sure the Astros would like to get back into the win column, but this is a crucial series for the home side. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to grab the hungry Orioles on the runline option. The Orioles have also used just one reliever over the last two games. Mike Baumann is 1-3 with a 4.29 ERA for the Orioles, while Framber Valdez is 16-5 with a 2.57 ERA for the Astros. I expect another great performance from the Orioles' pitching staff and while I do think another outright is possible, my official call is to grab Baltimore on the runline!

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10* A'S RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

I like the A's to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to earn the solid ATS cover on the runline option. The Mets had their five-game win streak come to an end in a 6-0 loss at Milwaukee in their most recent action, while Oakland is coming off a 9-5 loss at Seattle last night. The Mets see Chiss Bassitt toe the slab, and he's 14-8 with a 3.32 ERA, while Cole Irvin, who is 9-11 with a 3.79 ERA, counters for the the A's. Bassitt has been great f late, but I think he'll struggle against his former team here. The A's have still won three of their last five. Irvin has a chance, with a victory today, to match his career-best for wins in a season, so he has plenty of motivation here today a well. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbin the home side on the runline option!

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8* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

Detroit comes to Chicago after losing two of three at Baltimore, while Chicago enters having just been swept at home by Cleveland in three straight. The Tigers will look to keep playing spoiler here and in a contest that I envision being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Detroit goes with Eduardo Rodriguez, who signed a massive off-season contract and with the Tigers and who is 3-5 with a 4.35 ERA. He'll be opposed by Lucas Giolito, who is a poor 10-9 with a ballooned 5.07 ERA. He's a pedestrian 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA in 18 career appearances vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in seven appearances vs. the White Sox. I think these guys are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is Detroit on the runline option!

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9* Cardinals RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

Two teams jockeying for positioning go head-to-head here on Thursday night in this NL matchup, but after losing three straight, I like the Cardinals to dig deep here and bounce back finally. That includes two straight losses to open this series, falling 5-0 and 1-0. Note that St. Louis is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge back-to-back losses against an opponent. After winning five straight, I think the Padres finally have a letdown here. Joe Musgrove gets the call for the Padres and he's 10-7 with a 3.16 ERA. He'll be going up against the Cards' Jack Flaherty, who is just 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA. Note that St. Louis slugger Albert Pujols, who is stuck on 698 home runs, is 3 for 9 with a homer off Musgrove (Joe's just 2-7 with a 5.53 ERA in ten lifetime starts vs. the Cards.) Flaherty is 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA in 16 1/3 career frames vs. the Friars. This is his fourth start of the season and I expect him to be sharp. While an outright win isn't out of the question, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is St. Louis on the runline option!

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8* TIGERS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The Tigers lost two of three to the White Sox over the weekend, including yesterday's matchup by a score of 11-5. I think the visiting side bounces back here though and gives the Orioles a run for their money. The Orioles have their hopes set on one of the Wildcards, but the Tigers will look to play spoiler here. Baltimore has not been playing well, having won just five of its past 13. Miguel Cabrera has been activated for the Tigers as well, so that's a big boost for Detroit's offense. Tyler Wells is 7-3 with a 3.93 ERA for the Orioles. Baltimore has lost four of his last five trips to the hill. Tyler Alexander counters for Detroit, and he's 3-10 with a 5.35 ERA. Alexander has fared well against Baltimore in two career starts and I think he can match the erratic Wells right now. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'll recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option!

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10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

The Giants had won four of five before the Dodgers came to town. They now play with double revenge after dropping the first two games of this series by score of 5-0 and 7-2. I'm expecting a much more competitive battle here though in the finale of this three-game set. It's an important game for San Francisco, which hits the road for seven straight after this. LA on the other hand gets caught looking ahead to seven straight at home starting tomorrow. I believe these starters to be a "wash." Andrew Heaney is 3-2 with a 2.84 ERA for the Dodgers (sample size is still small), while Alex Cobb is 6-6 with a 3.48 ERA for the Giants. In a situation like that, the value swings here to the undervalued home underdog. And while I do think an outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab the Giants on the runline option!

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8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

I think the Orioles have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. However, the runline option at this price is just too good to turn down in the end in my opinion. Toronto has an 8-7 series lead, but Baltimore will be looking to even things out here. The home side sends Alek Manoah (14-7, 2.43 ERA) to the hill, while the visitors counter with Dean Kremer (7-5, 3.34.) Manoah has enjoyed success against the Orioles, while Kremer has struggled against the Jays. But that was then, and this is now. I look for Kremer to step up here and match his counterpart in this important game. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last ten in trying to avenge two straight losses against an opponent as well. The play is Baltimore on the runline!

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8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION)

While I do think an outright upset is very possible, in the end I believe that the runline option offers the better value here. Baltimore lost the opener here 6-3 yesterday, but I think it'll bounce back here on Saturday. The Jays had to use seevn pitchers on Friday night to earn the victory. These teams are now 7-7 in their season series. The home side goes with Jose Berrios, who is 10-5 with a 5.07 ERA, while the visitors counter with Kyle Bradish, who is 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA. Berrios has had more success vs. the Orioles this year than Bradish has vs. the Jays, but these guys are a "wash" for all intents and purposes. I don't really trust either. With the Jays' bullpen tired, I think the door is open for the Orioles here. The play is Baltimore on the runline option!

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8* ANGELS RUNLINE (SPECIAL)

The Angels have lost four in a row, but I think they step up here and play spoiler to the Mariners on Friday night. Seattle has won three of its last four, most recently splitting a two-game series with the Padres. The Mariners are currently tied with Toronto for the top wild card spot. Michael Lorenzen is 6-6 with a 4.70 ERA for the Angels, and while he's had difficulties with the Mariners in the past, note that he's 4-2 with a 2.83 ERA at home this season. Ray has been exceptional after a poor start to his 2022 campaign, entering 12-9 with a 3.56 ERA. But in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I say the correct call is to grab the home side on the runline option!

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10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (ASSASSIN)

The Phillies have been playing really well of late. They have won seven of their last ten. They just had their five game win streak snapped in yesterday's 5-3 loss at Miami, but they got caught looking ahead to this series. The Braves haven't been playing particularly well of late, having lost four of their last five, including a 4-1 setback at San Francisco in their most recent action. Max Fried gets the nod for the home side and he's 13-6 with a 2.50 ERA this season. He's 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA in 16 career games against Philadelphia, including 0-0 with a 3.75 ERA in three starts this season. "I feel as confident as ever," interim Phillies manager Rob Thomson assessed after last night's setback. "We're playing good. We're battling. There's a lot of energy in the dugout. Everyone is pulling for each other." Ranger Suarez is 9-5 with a 3.62 ERA for the Phillies. He's 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA in 13 career games vs. the Braves. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to recommend grabbing the visitors on the runline option!

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10* ROYALS RUNLINE (AL Central GOM)

I love how this sets up for Daniel Lynch and the Royals, and while I do think an outright victory is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Minnesota has taken the first two games of this series, but with a four-game series starting at AL Central leading Cleveland tomorrow, I believe the home side gets caught looking ahead to that contest. It's a big time revenge series, as Cleveland swept the Twins in Minnesota in the series previous to this one. It's a great situational play. Dylan Bundy is 8-7 with a 4.68 ERA for Minnesota, while Lynch is 5-10 with a 5.14 ERA for the Royals. I call these guys a "wash." Bundy is 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Royals, while Lynch is 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in four starts vs. the Twins this season. Minnesota first baseman Luis Arraez's availability questionable heading in, and the Twins may very well elect to sit him out here with Cleveland on deck. The stage is set for an outright upset, but the official call will be to grab the Royals on the runline option!

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