PAGE_HEADER

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Both Super Bowl participants have seen their defenses get the job done over multi-game stretches. San Francisco’s defense didn’t allow more than 20 points in any of its first seven games. Then came a rash of injuries, which in turn saw them allow more points per game over the second half of the season. But they got healthy again just in time for the playoffs - and just like we saw over those first seven games - they have been an elite group. They held the Vikings and Packers to just 30 points, pitching a shutout for a half in each game. They’d allowed just 10 points through six quarters before Green Bay put some “garbage time” points up. The 49ers rank second in yards allowed and are a top 10 scoring defense. But surprisingly, the Chiefs are also a top 10 scoring defense and allow just 18.0 points in road games. They held Tennessee and Houston to basically nothing after the first quarter of each playoff game. In the final six regular season games, the Chiefs held every opponent to 21 points or less. Play UNDER 49ers-Chiefs

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Green Bay’s offense did next to nothing when it faced the San Francisco defense in the regular season. They were held to eight points, a pathetic 81 yards passing and just 2.8 yards per play. They’re bound to do better this time, but will the 49ers score 37 points again? Not likely. Since taking it on the chin from the 49ers, the Pack are an undefeated 6-0 and allowing just 15.7 points/game. San Francisco is giving up only 18.8 points/game (5th), GB isn’t far behind as it gives up just 19.8 points/game (9th). The Under is 5-1 the last six times GB has been an underdog. As it turns out, the regular season matchup between these two teams did stay Under a near identical total. The Packers were only three-point underdogs for that game. Including last week’s 27-10 win over Minnesota, the Under is 4-0 the 49ers past four playoff games. The Packers, as we predicted they would, went Over last week. But that was against a bad Seattle defense. Play UNDER Green Bay-San Francisco

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Seattle got here by beating Philadelphia 17-9 in the Wild Card Round. As per usual, the Seahawks hardly looked impressive in achieving victory. They won by beating a 40-year old backup (Josh McCown) that was called into emergency duty when Carson Wentz was knocked out by a dirty hit from Jadeveon Clowney. Nevertheless, the Seahawks offense did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last week. Say what you will about Seattle's resume, but Green Bay has rode the same good fortune to get here, typically winning "ugly" and close. The Packers defense did play well down the stretch, but is unlikely to hold the Seahawks to 17 points this week. Over the final five regular season games, Green Bay faced four of the worst quarterbacks in the league (Jones, Haskins, Trubisky and Blough). So that's why you saw the defensive numbers improve. By the same token, Seattle goes from facing a 40-year old that had zero time to prepare to a rested Aaron Rodgers. By the numbers, this wasn't your normal Rogers-esque season. But the Packers offense did average 6.4 YPP at home and is going against a defense that allows 6.2 YPP on the road. Worth mentioning that the Over is 10-1 in Seattle's last 11 games as a playoff underdog. The Over is also 5-1 in Green Bay's last six playoff games. Play OVER Seattle-Green Bay

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is a late add to our Saturday NFL Playoff card as we’ve been monitoring the total all week and like where the number is now. Going into Foxboro and winning a playoff game is definitely impressive. But the Titans didn’t do much offensively. Ryan Tannehill passed for only 71 yards, a number which isn’t going to win you many games. The running game was much more successful (201 yards), but gaining that kind of yardage against the Ravens is just not likely. Baltimore’s opponents gained an average of just 93 yards/game on the ground in the regular season, doing so at only 4.3 yards/carry. Remember the Titans had only 14 points last week before a late INT return for a TD. If Tennessee is to have any chance in this game, it will be because of a defense that allows 17.2 points/game on the road. They won’t hold the Ravens that low, but combined we don’t see both teams exceeding the number here. The Under is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last seven playoff games and a perfect 6-0 the Ravens last six playoff home games. Play UNDER Tennessee-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The 13-3 Saints host the 10-6 Vikings on Wild Card Weekend. Because of Drew Brees, New Orleans will always be known for their offense. But it has been a much improved defense that has helped guide them to back to back 13-win seasons. The Saints gave up an average of just 21.3 points/game this season. They'll need that defense to show up on Sunday because the Vikings actually allowed a fewer number of points per contest, coming in at 18.9. There are some incredible trends supporting the Under in this one. For starters, Minnesota has gone Under in its last five Wild Card games. They've also gone Under 15 of the past 22 times they've been an underdog. But the most eye-opening trend of all is that the last seven NFL Wild Card games with a spread of seven points or more have all stayed Under! We certainly don't expect Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to play well in this spot. So don't go expecting many points from the underdog. At the same time, Minnesota's defense can keep them in the game. Look for the defenses to rule the day and this one to go Under. Play UNDER Minnesota-New Orleans

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

You probably don't need us to tell you that the Over is almost always a more popular bet than the Under. This goes for any sport, but especially football. Every week, in virtually every NFL game, there are more bettors taking the Over as opposed to the Under. But this Pittsburgh-Baltimore game is an extreme example of the opposite taking place. We're not sure if we've ever seen a game where the public was so excited to play the Under. Baltimore, who will be the #1 seed in the AFC and has nothing to play for, is resting its starters. Robert Griffin III will start at quarterback in place of Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh's last seven games have all gone Under, none of them seeing more than 40 points scored. Five have seen less than 30. But if you're not expecting effort in this game, well you're wrong. The Steelers have a chance to make the playoffs and John Harbaugh's approach to preseason games tells us he'll be coaching to win here as well. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

We know that Kansas City is capable of putting up a lot of points. Chicago not as much, but the Bears offense has at least been better of late. They still put up over 400 yards in a 21-13 loss to Green Bay Sunday. Mitchell Trubisky threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. The offense is now averaging nearly six yards per play those last three weeks. It's not like the Chiefs defense is very good. Disregard last week's performance as it was in the snow against a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs still give up 357.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play for the season. Recently, they have faced some struggling offenses. Patrick Mahomes had no issues with the snow last week. He threw for 340 yards. There were a lot of long drives that ended with field goals in that Denver-KC game. The road still sees KC averaging over 30 points/game. This number is just too low not to try the Over. Four straight KC games have gone Under, which is rare. Play OVER Kansas City-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

A critical game for both teams, though that's for different reasons. The Saints are still in play for the NFC's top seed. They are tied with the 49ers, Seahawks and Packers, all of whom also have just three losses. The Colts have lost three in a row, blowing leads in every game, to fall to 6-7 and see their own playoff chances go on life support. The fact that Indy has only been beaten once by more than one score means we won't be laying points Monday night. But the Over is something we can get behind after the way both of these defenses played last week. The Colts gave up over 500 yards in a 38-35 loss to the Bucs, almost all of it coming through the air. That's good news for the Saints' Drew Brees, who threw for 349 in a losing effort last week. The reason New Orleans lost last week was because their defense was torched for 8.2 yards per play by the 49ers. That was right here at home too. Over the last seven weeks, the Saints have scored at least 31 points every game except when facing the Falcons (familiar opponent). The Colts have allowed 69 points the last two games. Play OVER Colts-Saints

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Eli Manning will be starting for the Giants this evening. Not by choice, but rather due to the fact his replacement (Daniel Jones) is injured. You may recall things were not looking so good for Eli at the start of the season. In two games, both losses, he posted a QBR of 38.4. The Giants offense scored just 31 points. Things haven't been looking good for the Giants for some time now. They did win Jones' first two starts, but have dropped eight in a row since. During that losing streak, they've been held to 18 points or less five times. To think Manning will come in and right the ship seems outlandish. The Eagles also have issues. Last week saw them suffer an embarrassing 37-31 loss to Miami. Not sure where that (lack of) defensive effort came from. The previous four games all saw the Eagles defense give up no more than 17 points. At the same time, we don't trust what the Eagles did on offense in that game either. The previous three weeks saw them score a total of 41 points. Three times in the last six games, they scored 10 points or less. Philadelphia obviously needs this game more as somehow they've remained in playoff contention. But don't look for them to put up many points either. Same with the Giants. Play UNDER Giants-Eagles

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

We also like this game to go Over the total. That may sound surprising given all that is true about this Steelers defense. But remember what we said about Arizona's defense. The Cardinals are last in the league at 426.3 yards/game allowed. Miami is the only team that has allowed more points. The 2-10 Giants are the only opponent that failed to reach 23 points on them. Five of the last six games have seen the Cards give up at least 30.  If Pittsburgh is able to get to 30, then we're looking at a pretty easy Over here. Arizona's offense was pathetic in a 34-7 loss to the Rams last week, but had averaged 26 points over its three previous games. They can score between 14 and 20 here, right?  The Under has hit in every Steelers road game so far (five of them). But three of those came against teams that have top four defenses (in yards allowed). Another was against the 31st ranked scoring offense (Cincinnati). Finally, the last one that needs accounted for was on a short week (Thursday night loss to the Browns). Weather won't be a factor this week either. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Browns saw their playoff hopes take a major hit with last week's loss to the Steelers. This game with the Bengals no longer looks like a cakewalk as for the first time all season, Cincinnati is off a win. At least the game is at home where the Browns have won three in a row. This offense is having all sorts of problems but did score 41 two weeks ago here vs. Miami. Browns home games are seeing a total of 46.2 points/game scored this year. That's up from 40.2 on the road. With Andy Dalton back as the starting quarterback for the Bengals, they are a far greater threat to put some points on the board. We saw this last week when they put up 22 on the Jets, ending what had been a 13-game losing streak dating back to last season. That may not sound like much, but it was the most points put up by Cincy since a Week 5 loss to Arizona, a game which Dalton also started. Going with Ryan Finley was not a terrible idea by a first year coach, but it was painfully obvious Finley wasn't very good. Dalton makes this a better offense as he's auditioning for a job (probably somewhere else) next year. The Under is 6-0 in Bengals road games, but this game puts an end to that streak. Play OVER Cincinnati-Cleveland 

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Both teams are 6-6 and coming off Thanksgiving Day games. Chicago won on Turkey Day, 24-20 over Detroit, while Dallas lost 26-15 to Buffalo. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games and six of the last nine.  This is the third straight week the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. However, despite some of the recent struggles, Dallas still has the league's #1 ranked offense. We believe they'll find more success here against the Bears than they did vs. Buffalo or New England. The Bears defense has gotten to face some pretty weak opposing quarterbacks of late, third stringer David Blough being the most recent example. Dak Prescott is the NFL's leading passer. Speaking of quarterbacks, Mitchell Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. This total is just too low. Even if the final score is 24-21, the game goes Over. This could end up being the lowest total for any Dallas game this season. Play OVER Dallas-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Vikings come into this game at 8-3. The Seahawks are 9-2. It should be a good one at Century Link Field on Monday with two of the NFC's best teams looking to improve their respective playoff positioning. Minnesota is off a bye, which seems helpful. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has had his fair share of struggles on Monday Night Football (0-7 SU and ATS!), but he comes into tonight's game with the highest passer rating in the NFL. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is #2.  Both teams come in averaging roughly the same number of points per game. Minnesota is at 26.3 while Seattle is at 26.5. The Vikings defense allows about six points/game fewer.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven of the last eight games. There have been only three games this season where they failed to score 23 points. Five of the last six have gone Over including three straight. The Seahawks are coming off a low-scoring win over Philadelphia (17-9), but before that had scored at least 27 points in eight of nine games.  Really surprising is that Seattle allows 29.2 points/game at home. The Vikings defense has allowed an average of 6.2 yards/play the last three games, which isn't good. Play OVER Minnesota-Seattle

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

The Patriots have held every opponent but one to 14 points or less. That one exception was Baltimore, who hung 37. That's New England's only loss. Tonight, they face another dynamic, playmaking QB in DeShaun Watson. While the Patriots may very well win this game, expect them to give up more points than they usually do. The Texans are 7-4 and lead the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis and Tennessee. With those two teams playing each other this week, a loss here by Houston would guarantee a first place tie in the division. So this is a really important game for the Texans. Unfortunately, they've managed to beat the Patriots only one time in franchise history. Eight of the 11 all-time meetings have gone Over with New England scoring at least 27 in the last 10.  Houston has scored at least 20 points in every game but three. Two of those three came in the first four weeks. The other was vs. Baltimore. While they've gone Under in four straight, the only time the defense was really tested, they gave up 41 points. Much is being made of New England's recent offensive struggles. Even Tom Brady has been pretty vocal about it. But we expect a big game from Brady tonight. Houston's defense has allowed over 500 yards rushing in the three games since JJ Watt got hurt. Keep an eye on receiver N'Keal Henry, who caught a TD last week for the Patriots. Play OVER New England-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We'll try this again. Nine straight Tampa Bay games have gone Over. At least this week, they've got an opponent that shouldn't do much in the way of scoring.Jacksonville has lost three straight (all division games) and averaged only 12 points/game in doing so. Since returning, Nick Foles hasn't meant much. Whether it's been Foles or Gardner Minshew II at quarterback, the Jaguars are still averaging less than 20 points/game this year. The Jaguars defense was gashed badly last week by Tennessee. At one point, they allowed four touchdowns in six plays. Now they are dealing with injuries on top of that. It looks bad and Tampa Bay's offense certainly has big play capability. But look for the Jags somehow, someway to be better on defense. Bucs QB Jameis Winston can certainly be a drive-killer with his turnovers. Jacksonville's offense isn't going to do much here and because of that, the game will stay Under. Each of the last three weeks, Tampa's games have not gone Over until the final minute. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Jacksonville

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER 

As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though.  Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. But the Bengals actually average 17.5 points at home. This is a very low total, which isn’t surprising, but the public pounding the total down opens up an opportunity. It may seem odd to take the dog and the Over in the same matchup, but it’s the combo we like. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Cincinnati

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

Another Over we like. A Washington game finally went Over last week, but they were on the wrong side of a 34-17 final score. It stopped a six-game Under streak. On the bright side, it was the most points the Redskins scored in a game in almost a month. They haven’t topped 17 since Week 2. But rookie Dwayne Haskins is now the starting QB. This will be the weakest defense Haskins has faced in his pro career. Detroit gives up 412.7 yards per game as well as 27.2 points. Only once in the last five games have they allowed less than 26 points. Four of those games have gone Over. So Washington should have ample opportunity to score this week. Still no Matt Stafford for the Lions. But seeing as the Redskins just gave up 34 points to the Jets that shouldn’t be a problem. Play OVER Detroit-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay is on an eight-game Over streak. Some of the games have gone Over by a lot. But recently, the line between Over and Under has been a lot thinner. Last week’s Over with New Orleans was a 34-17 game with a 50-point total. It was a late pick-6 that sent things Over. Painful loss for us. Part of the reason we’re going to try the Under again this week is the defensive resurgence of the Falcons. The last two games have seen Atlanta hold the Saints and Panthers to just 12 combined points.The last four Falcons games have gone Under as well. While Atlanta’s defense has improved the last two games, their offense may be set for a decline. Injuries are starting to pile up as both RB Freeman and TE Hooper will miss this game. For what it’s worth, the Bucs defense has allowed the second fewest rush yards. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD since before the bye. They got a special teams TD last week, which probably isn’t happening again. These are two of the least efficient offenses in the red zone. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Atlanta

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

The Rams offense may not be what it was last year, but this total is too low. When they faced the Bears last year, oddsmakers had the total at 50.5. That's a big change in one year's time. Now Bears fans will certainly want to point out what their defense did to the Rams last year. They held them to a season-low 6 points in an impressive primetime victory. But just like the Rams offense, the Bears defense doesn't seem to be what it was a year ago. When they're not facing one of the league's elite defenses, the Rams still do pretty well. A few weeks ago, asking the offense to break 20 points would have seemed like the easiest thing in the world. The Over is 5-2 when the Rams are off an ATS loss.  This is the lowest total for any Rams game in the Sean McVay era. That matters. There have only been three at 43 points or less, all of which occurred in the first six weeks of his tenure, and the Over was 3-0 in those games. The Bears offense is pretty bad, but even it scored 20 points last week. Getting to at least 17 this week seems realistic. Play OVER Chicago-LA Rams

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

New Orleans just suffered what has to be the most shocking loss of the NFL season. As a two-touchdown favorite, they fell 26-9 to the Falcons last week. That was at home. They were dominated. Coming off a loss like that, you figure the Saints will be eager to take the field this week. But they are traveling to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that all of a sudden has some confidence following a last minute win over Arizona. Drew Brees is back but this Saints offense doesn't seem right. Last week was the 4th game this year in which they were held to 13 points or less. Some of that was with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But slow starts have been the norm. New Orleans has scored just 25 points in the 1st quarter this year. Eventually that's going to catch up with them. It certainly did last week. Tampa Bay's last seven games have all gone Over. Some of them by a lot. But last week's only went Over when they scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The previous week's game went to overtime. The defense should get better this week with the return of CB Carlton Davis. Down a key offensive lineman (Andrus Peat), don't be shocked if the Saints again struggle to protect Brees. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is #1 in the league at stopping the run. But the Saints can probably count on their own defense in this game. They come in allowing just 20.2 points/game. Play UNDER New Orleans-Tampa Bay 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER 

You have to wonder if the Over is set to make a "comeback" in these primetime affairs. The Under had been 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this year prior to last night's Over in Minnesota-Dallas. We had the Over last night and that's the way we're playing Monday night's game as well. It's not just about bucking a trend for us though. Both of these teams can certainly score. In their last home game, the 49ers put up 51 points. Seattle scored 40 last week in an overtime victory over Tampa Bay. The Seahawks will add Josh Gordon to their offense this week. The mercurial Gordon certainly has his share of off the field problems, but can be as talented a receiver as there is. Not that Russell Wilson needs much help these days. Wilson is having a MVP caliber season with 2,505 yards passing. That the Niners are without LB Kwon Alexander is huge. A rookie (Dre Greenlaw) is replacing him. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo should have a big night as well. Seattle's pass defense ranks 28th, giving up 278 yards/game. They allowed 460 yards to a backup (Matt Schaub) two weeks ago and then 335 to Jameis Winston last week. The Over has hit in six of Seattle's last seven NFC West games. The same for four of San Francisco's last five NFC West games. This could easily turn into a high-scoring game. Play OVER Seattle-San Francisco

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The numbers aren't good here for Kirk Cousins, whether it be his record on the road vs. winning teams (0-7-1 SU/ATS with Minnesota), his record on the road in primetime (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) or his record against Dallas (1-6 straight up, including 0-4 vs. Dak Prescott). But Cousins has either completed 80% of his passes or thrown 3 TD passes in five straight games. The Vikings did lose last week, 26-23 at Kansas City, but are 23-9-1 ATS off a loss under Mike Zimmer. They're getting Dallas on a short week. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football under Jason Garrett. So the trends aren't all against Minnesota Sunday night. Another trend that's interesting is the Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday & Monday night games this NFL season. That includes 8-0 when the home team is favored. But with two explosive offenses this week, we feel that trend is about to change. We've got two of the game's best runners facing off in Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott. Cook has 1232 yards from scrimmage and leads the league in rushing. The Vikings defense isn't the same away from home either as it has given up 56 points the last two road games. The Cowboys offense has scored 37 points in back to back games. They are averaging 6.8 yards/game and 436.6 yards/game. This total simply isn't high enough for a game that could quickly turn into a shootout. Play OVER Minnesota-Dallas

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay found another way to lose last week. It was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle and going down in overtime where they didn't even have a chance to possess the ball. A tough break for Bruce Arians team, which is now 2-6 on the year. This week find the Bucs favored for just the third time this season. They are hosting the 3-5-1 Cardinals who will be coming in with some confidence after taking the undefeated 49ers to the wire last Thursday. The Arizona offense even averaged over 7.0 yards/play against what is the league's top defense. With the Bucs on a six-game Over streak, the expectation here will clearly be for a high-scoring shootout. But be careful with expectations sometimes. This high number is something we can take advantage of this week.Tampa's run defense is actually #1 in the league this year, giving up only 78.1 yards/game. So hopefully they can make the Arizona offense one-dimensional. While Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has some of the same skill-set as Russell Wilson (who faced the Bucs last week), Murray just isn't the passer Wilson is - at least yet. The Under is still 15-7 in Tampa Bay's last 22 home games. Play UNDER Arizona-Tampa Bay

AAA

incorrectly entered play

This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Packers are 7-1 heading into this game and have won four straight. The Chargers are only 3-5, but did win last thanks to a missed field goal by the Bears. Even though they won, the Chargers offense gained only 231 total yards last week. They've scored more than 24 points in regulation just one time and that was against Miami. That's the only time since Week 1 that they've scored more than 20. The Under is 6-1 their last 7 games. The Over is 5-1 in Green Bay's last six games, so one of these teams O/U trends is going to cease. The Packers defense has been improved this year, giving up just 20.4 points/game. With Chargers games typically being so low scoring, signs point to that continuing this week. The Packers have faced a couple of bad offenses the last two weeks. The Chargers are giving up only 19.6 points/game. We love that the number has been bet up during the week. The Under is 5-2 for Green Bay following a game where they scored 30 or more points. Play UNDER Green Bay-LA Chargers

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Tampa Bay heads to Seattle desperate for a win. The Bucs are just 2-5 after blowing another lead and losing last week. Turning things around won't be easy though as the Seahawks are 6-2. We're calling for an Under. Seattle rarely blows anybody out. They have only one win by more than seven points all year. Last week's 27-20 win over Atlanta wasn't really that close though. The Seahawks led 24-0 at one point. The Falcons did much of their offensive damage in garbage time. Tampa Bay's last five games have gone Over. That has resulted in their highest O/U line to date. The same thing is true for Seattle. The number is too high. Tampa Bay has only gone over 26 points in two games. Seattle scored 27 last week, but just 16 the week before than and is actually scoring less at home where they are 0-4 ATS. The Seahawks lost their starting center for the season. That will have a major impact on the rest of the offensive line, if not the entire offense. One thing you shouldn't expect from this game is for Seattle to run the ball well. The Buccaneers are giving up only 69 yards rushing per game. That's the best mark in the league. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Seattle

AAA

This is a 10* play on UNDER

Despite being a dog in all six games, Oakland is 3-3. Houston is 4-3. Both teams are off losses. The Raiders gave up 42 points to the Packers, a game which turned when QB Derek Carr fumbled the ball through the end zone. The Texans lost a key AFC South battle in Indianapolis as the Colts were off a bye. With the Raiders 4-0 Over the L4 games and the Texans 3-0 Over the L3 games, it’s not a shock that the total for this week has been bet up. But it’s too high in our opinion. The Under is 8-2 in Raiders games that have a total of 50 points or higher the last three seasons. This year, the Raiders have scored more than 24 points only once. The key here becomes the Raiders holding Houston under 30 points, which is certainly doable as the Texans have scored more than 28 just two times. The Under is also 16-7 in the Texans last 23 AFC games and 6-1 their last 7 home games. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland

AAA

THis is a 10* on OVER 

New England and New York already played once this year and it was a 30-14 win by the Patriots. The Jets actually failed to score an offensive touchdown in that game (1 def, 1 ST), but that was with Luke Falk making his first career NFL start at quarterback. Falk is thankfully no longer around as Sam Darnold returned last week to throw for 300+ yards in an upset of Dallas. Darnold being on the field this time should automatically make the Jets more competitive. Despite not scoring an offensive touchdown in that first meeting, the Jets still covered. The game also went Over the total. If we can get an Over with one team not even scoring an offensive TD, it makes sense to come back with that same play for the rematch now that Darnold is the Jets QB. The Patriots average 31.7 points/game. So with the Jets likely to score more than they did the first go around with New England, all we need is an “average” type performance from the Patriots offense and this one should sail Over. The Over is 7-3 in the Jets past 10 home games. Play OVER New England-NY Jets

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Arizona is 2-3-1. The Giants are 2-4. All that enthusiasm surrounding the move to Daniel Jone at QB in the Big Apple seems to have quieted. The Giants have lost two straight games, though those were against the Vikings and Patriots, two of the better teams in the league (one of them THE best). Speaking of new QBs, the Cardinals obviously continue to roll with rookie Kyler Murray. He guided his team to a wild 34-33 win over Atlanta last week where the Cards were lucky that Falcons kicker Matt Bryant missed the potential game-tying extra point. The last two games have been Murray and the offense's best showings yet. Not coincidentally, Arizona won both games. But they were also facing two terrible defenses. The Giants defense isn't exactly what we'd call great, but neither is an offense which has scored 24 points the last two games. Actually, one of their two touchdowns last week came from the defenses. That game with the Patriots was a terrible beat for anyone with the Under as there were three non-offensive scores in the game (two by New England). Take those away and you wouldn't come close to approaching the number this week. The Giants have averaged just over 210 yards/game the last two weeks. Under is 6-1 for Arizona if they allowed 30 or more points the previous week. Play UNDER Arizona-NY Giants

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Kansas City has scored its two lowest point totals EVER with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB the last two games. They lost both and now must face a Denver defense that's playing with some confidence following two straight wins, the last one coming in shutout fashion. But the Chiefs offense, even with Mahomes hobbled, is still far more dangerous than what the Broncos have faced the last two weeks. It's certainly reasonable to expect Kansas City to score at least 24 points in this game. That's something they've done every time but once with Mahomes as the starter. That one time was two weeks ago against Indianapolis. By kickoff, this could very well end up as the lowest O/U for any Chiefs game so far this season. Denver's offense is going to have to pick up some of the slack as well, but that shouldn't be a problem going against a KC defense that is struggling right now. A year ago, the Chiefs allowed the second most yards in all of football. It hardly mattered with Mahomes and the offense putting up record numbers. But now the defense is a problem for Andy Reid as it has given up 180 or more yards rushing each of the last four games. The Chiefs have given up 26 or more points four times this year. The Over is 17-5 the Chiefs past 22 road games and 3-1-1 the last five times the Broncos have been off a win by at least two touchdowns. Play OVER Kansas City-Denver

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

It's been confirmed that the Steelers are starting 3rd stringer Devlin Hodges Sunday night as backup Mason Rudolph is still unable to return from last week's concussion. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger's season is over after an injury suffered in the second game. That's the current state of the Steelers, who are 1-4 after suffering a tough 23-20 home loss to Baltimore in overtime. They did score with Hodges in the game as he went 7 of 9 for 63 yards. In College, Hodges won the Walter Payton Award in 2018 while at Samford, meaning he was the best player at the FCS level. Maybe he has a higher upside than Rudolph? We do think the Steelers will be able to score on a Chargers defense that's giving up 6.3 yards per play. Take away the ugly opener in New England and Pittsburgh has scored at least 20 points in every game. Los Angeles is off a bad home loss to Denver last week in which they scored only 13 points. But they turned it over twice inside the 5-yard line, so there easily could have more points for them. Philip Rivers and company, while short-handed, should bounce back tonight. RB Gordon is back after a lengthy holdout. The Under is 4-0 the Chargers last four games, but the Over is 4-1 in the last five matchups with the Steelers. The key angle here is that this is the lowest total of the season for either team. Game goes Over. Play OVER Pittsburgh-LA Chargers

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Atlanta is favored in this one, but it sure doesn't feel like they should be. That's cause they've lost three in a row and four of five to open the season. Arizona is now 1-3-1 after picking up its first win last week at the expense of winless Cincinnati. The Falcons completely fell apart late in the game vs. Houston last week and ended up giving up 53 points. It was a one-possession game going into the final two minutes but they ended up losing by 21. We expect a better defensive effort this week. At the same time, they hadn't scored more than 24 in a game themselves before last week. The Cardinals had been held to 20 points or less in the three games prior to last week's win. Two of their top offensive players - RB Johnson and WR Kirk - may not play Sunday. The Under is 22-9 the Cardinals last 31 home games. The Cardinals have been settling for far too many field goals this year. 14 of 22 scoring drives have ended with a FG rather than a touchdown. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan turns it over too often in the red zone. Play UNDER Atlanta-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* play on the Over

We know the Chiefs are going to score as they've put up at least 26 points in all games started by Patrick Mahomes. They've gone over 30 in three of four this year. The one exception was a 28-10 win over Oakland where they scored all 28 points in a single quarter. The Colts defense just gave up 31 points in a loss to the Raiders last week, so this hardly seems like an ideal matchup for them. But of course, the Chiefs defense isn't very good either. They've given up 26 points or more to every opponent but the Raiders. Indianapolis should be good for at least 24 points by the end of this game as that's the threshold they've hit in three of four games, a matchup with Tennessee (top five scoring defense) the lone exception. The Over is 6-0 when the Chiefs gained at least 350 total yards in their last game. They gained 438 in last week's wild 34-30 win over the Lions. That game could have featured even more scoring were in not for turnovers by both teams. The Chiefs defense actually ended up giving up more than 450 yards. Three of the Chiefs games this year have seen at least 61 total points scored. This number is high, but the issue is oddsmakers just don't seem willing to open the number higher. Until they do, KC strictly remains an Over team. Play OVER Indianapolis-Kansas City

AAA

*Bonus Pick Chiefs 1st Half

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Patriots could go Over this total themselves. Mark it down. One of the NFL's two 4-0 teams, New England heads to D.C. this weekend to take on the Redskins, who are one of the league's four 0-4 teams. Obviously, this is a gross mismatch. But the pointspread reflects that. What the O/U line doesn't reflect, however, it just how bad the Washington defense is. They gave up over 30 points the last three games, one of them against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears (who were struggling to move the ball previous to that game) and then 24 more to the Giants last week. It easily could have been more than 24 points allowed last week, but the Giants turned it over four times. You can bet Tom Brady won't be that careless with the ball this week. The Patriots offense will also be eager to atone for last week's subpar effort, which came against a very good Bills defense. They go from facing one of the league's best defenses to one of its worst. Colt McCoy (yikes!) and the Washington offense probably won't do much here, but a single TD or maybe 10 points might be all we need here for an Over. Play OVER New England-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

Neither team playing Monday night has done much of the way in scoring in 2019 and neither has done any kind of winning. The Bengals and Steelers both come in at 0-3 with the former averaging only 18.0 points/game while the latter is at just 16.3. The Steelers have the obvious excuse of not having Ben Roethlisberger, but they still put up 20 last week in a loss to San Francisco with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. While the Roethlisberger injury definitely altered our outlook on the Steelers season, more concerning in the interim is how poorly the defense has played. They've given up 28.3 points/game so far and could have given up a lot more than 24 last week were it not for the 49ers turning the ball over so much. Three of San Francisco's five turnovers came inside the red zone. So it definitely could have - and should have - been a lot worse for Pittsburgh last week. They allowed 446 total yards to the Niners. On the year, the Steelers are allowing 443 yards/game. The Bengals defense knows what it's like to be shredded by the 49ers as well. They gave up 572 total yards to them in 41-17 loss back in Week 2. On the bright side, Andy Dalton is actually averaging over 300 yards passing per game. The Over is 5-2 the Steelers last seven games on Monday Night Football and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 division games. While the offenses have been struggling, this one could easily turn into a shootout with two struggling defenses that can't stop anybody. Play OVER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

The competition has not been fierce, but the Cowboys have looked good so far. They are 3-0 and averaging 32.3 points per game. Kellen Moore is doing a very good job as the new offensive coordinator, QB Dak Prescott is playing as well as anyone in the league right now and RB Ezekiel Elliot hasn't skipped a beat. New Orleans will be the Cowboys toughest opponent yet, but of course the Saints are without Drew Brees. These teams played a Thursday night game last season and the Cowboys won 13-10. Expect this tussle to feature a lot more scoring. It took touchdowns from both the defense and special teams to get New Orleans to 33 points last week as they pulled the upset in Seattle. But now they are playing in the Superdome. We expect Teddy Bridgewater to play well here. The Over is 8-3 in the Saints last 11 September games. It's also cashed in the last five conference games for Dallas. The Saints defense, which isn't as good as it was last year, did just give up over 500 yards to Seattle. The only offenses Dallas has faced are the Giants (with Eli Manning), the Redskins and the Dolphins. So it wouldn't be fair to call them "good" just yet. The Saints always put up points at home. This time Dallas should be able to match them. Play OVER Dallas-New Orleans

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER

We like the Seattle-Arizona game to go Under too. Sure, we talked a good bit about the Seahawks putting up a lot of yards last week and the Cardinals defense being down both of its starting corners. But Seattle can't score enough to send this one over by itself. Their defense played better against the Saints than the final score indicated. We went through this in the analysis on the side. But New Orleans scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Arizona did give up 4 TD passes to Kyle Allen last week, but should play better this week. The offense hasn't scored more than 24 in regulation this year and their total points would look a lot worse if not for the 4th quarter comeback they had vs. the Lions. The Under is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home games. It is also 11-5 the last 16 times Seattle gave up 30 or more points in its last game. Play UNDER Seattle-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Vikings and Raiders have combined to go Under in all four of their games so far. But we anticipate a bit higher scoring affair for them as they meet in Week 3. Minnesota had a very efficient 28 points in a Week 1 win over Atlanta. That was at home and they return to TCF Bank Stadium this week. They should have scored more than 16 last week, but Kirk Cousins threw a BAD interception against the Packers, basically costing his team the game. The Vikings offense actually averaged 7.0 yards per play in that game, but went 0 for 2 in the red zone and turned it over a total of four times. The defense was torched by Aaron Rodgers early, but then kept the team in the game as long as they could. While Minnesota's D didn't allow any points over the last 44 minutes, Oakland failed to score at all in the final three quarters last week vs. Kansas City. That after a 10-point fourth quarter and efficient Week 1 win (over Denver) of their own. Strangely, the Raiders defense allowed four touchdowns in the second quarter vs. the Chiefs, but no points at all in the other three quarters. They still allowed almost 7.0 yards/play though. The Raiders are 4-0 Over their last four games on field turf. Play OVER Oakland-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER

The Titans were oh so close to 2-0 last week, but couldn't finish the job against the Colts. They had a late 17-13 lead, but after a missed FG things quickly went awry. The Colts scored the go-ahead touchdown after a 55-yard run, but a missed XP by Adam Vinateri definitely left the door open for Tennessee, who was down only 19-17. But the Titans offense could muster nothing on its final two drives. Still, they're in better position than the 0-2 Jaguars, who went for 2 and the win against Houston (could have kicked XP and gone to OT instead). They obviously failed and it was a 13-12 loss. While it was a low-scoring game for both teams last week, let's go back to Week 1. Tennessee scored 43 while Jacksonville gave up 40. This will likely end up closing as the lowest total on the Week 3 board despite what happened in Week 1. There's definitely value on the Over in our estimation. The Over is 6-2 in the Titans last eight Thursday games and 4-0 when they are off an ATS loss. Jacksonville is 6-2 Over if they allowed 15 or less points in the last game. Play OVER Tennessee-Jacksonville

AAA

This is a 10* Play on the UNDER

Last week's game involving the Chargers should have been an Under as they led 24-16 with less than a minute to go. But the defense not only let the Colts drive down for a touchdown, but also gave up a two-point conversion that sent the game into overtime. Fortunately for Chargers fans, Philip Rivers got the ball first in OT and never let the Colts have a chance as LA scored a TD on its first possession. But the Chargers weren't the only team last week to have overtime ruin what looked to be a sure under. Detroit led Arizona 24-6 early in the fourth quarter before Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray awoke and led his team on a wild comeback. The game wound up going to OT, but unlike Chargers-Colts, there was no winner as it ended up a 27-27 tie. This week, the Chargers offense won't have TE Hunter Henry nor will they have him the rest of the season (fractured knee). That'll affect them drastically. They are already without RB Melvin Gordon, who is holding out. Austin Eckler had the game of his life starting in place of Gordon last week, but won't be repeating that performance here. Detroit's offense will probably look to run a lot here after the Chargers defense got gashed on the ground by the Colts. But we're not sure the Lions will have the same success. The Under hit in the last five Lions home games last year. Play UNDER Chargers-Detroit

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

We've seen this total skyrocket due to Baltimore putting up 59 points in Week 1. But such efficiency is highly unlikely two weeks in a row and even if the Ravens are successful again this week (and it's very likely they will be), they won't be scoring as much. With top overall draft pick Kyler Murray making his first career start, the Arizona offense looked pretty bad for three quarters last week. They scored only six points before a furious late rally forced overtime and ultimately earned them a tie with the Lions. Again, it's likely the Cardinals find themselves down entering the 4th quarter here. But the Ravens defense won't be nearly as generous as the Lions were. They gave up just 200 total yards to Miami. In the last 10 years, the Ravens have only lost to a rookie QB one time.  Baltimore won't be scoring 40+ every week, or even most weeks this season. Not all, but a good deal of their offensive performance last week had to do with whom they were facing. Arizona had the worst record in the league last year, but they're better than Miami. This will be a relatively low-scoring affair and best of all is that the number has been bet up several points, presenting us with a value situation. Play UNDER Arizona-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Compared to the early game, Denver-Oakland figures to feature little in the way of scoring. You've got two bad offensive teams, one starting Joe Flacco at quarterback and the other trying to pick up the pieces in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. The Raiders are a complete joke right now as acquiring Brown cost them draft picks and he didn't he play a game for them. It's a complete distraction heading into the season, which by the way will be their final one in Oakland. This Raiders team has averaged only 18 points/game each of the past two seasons. QB Derek Carr has regressed heavily during that time. Not only do the Raiders not have Brown at their disposal, also gone is TE Jared Cook, who had a career year in 2018. The Denver offense isn't going to be much better this year with the aging Flacco serving merely as a stop gap before someone else takes the reigns (Drew Lock?). Defense is the speciality of new Broncos coach Vic Fangio, so expect them to be stronger on that side of the ball. Their defensive front should overwhelm what is looking like a terrible Oakland offensive line here. The Under went 13-3 in all Denver games a season ago. The Under is also 16-5 the Raiders last 21 games on grass. Play UNDER Denver-Oakland

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Two teams looking to improve start the season against one another, so either Detroit or Arizona will be 1-0 after the first game. That's the good news. The bad news is one of them will be 0-1. For Arizona, there's lots of room to improve after finishing with the league's worst record in 2018. They brought in a new coach (Kliff Kingsbury), who will bring his "Air Raid" offense from the college ranks. It will be run by last year's Heisman Trophy winner, Kyler Murray. But this is going to be a work in progress and you shouldn't expect the Cardinals to put up big point totals early on in the season. They just don't have the offensive personnel as was obvious last year when they were last in the league in scoring at 14.4 points/game. As for the Lions, Matt Stafford is still here and he's (kind of?) got a running game now. But Detroit only averaged 20.3 points/game last year (25th) and stayed Under in each of its last seven games. That's what we look for here. Neither offense has improved enough to have this game go Over. The Lions defense was pretty good last year, ranking in the top 10 in yards given up and top 8 against the pass. The Under is 21-7 in Arizona's last 28 home games. Play UNDER Detroit-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

The Bears had a top flight defense last season, leading the league in interceptions with 27 while allowing a league-low 27 touchdowns. While they do have to replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, virtually all the same personnel returns for second year coach Matt Nagy, with one notable exception. That would be Adrian Amos, who will now start at safety for Green Bay! Interestingly enough, Amos' replacement is former Bear Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. The Packers defense should be better this year thanks to eight new starters. The offense is actually a more interesting deal. The numbers last year were not all that impressive even though Aaron Rodgers played a whole season. That was part of the reason Mike McCarthy is gone. New coach Matt LaFleur has installed a new offense and don't be surprised if, as great as he is, it takes Rodgers some time to adjust. The Packers, who don't run the ball that well to begin with, will likely struggle to run in this game. Chicago closed last season on a 5-0 Under run. Green Bay closed on a 7-3 Under run. Both meetings last year ended up with similar point totals, 47 and 41, and we don't think there will be more points scored here. Five of the last seven meetings have seen 47 or less total points scored. Play UNDER Green Bay-Chicago

AAA

This is 10* play on the UNDER for the Super Bowl.

The expectation for this year's Super Bowl is that two of the league's higher scoring teams won't have much trouble scoring in what will favorable (indoor) conditions at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. New England certainly hasn't had much difficulty scoring in the postseason, averaging 39 points in wins over the Chargers and Chiefs. But Los Angeles had a terrible defensive gameplan and the Chiefs defense, at least statistically, is one of the worst in the league. But we should also remember that the Patriots had scored only 17 points through three quarters in KC before a wild fourth quarter took us to overtime. I was fortunate to have the Over in the AFC Championship Game, but will be going the other way in the Super Bowl as the Rams have the best defense NE has seen in some time. Also, while Los Angeles scored 33 or more points nine times in their first 11 games, they have done so just once in the last seven games. Super Bowls traditionally start slow. This one should be no different. This total will close as either the highest or 2nd highest for any SB in history. The previous high, set two years ago when the Patriots played the Falcons, only went Over because of overtime. Play UNDER Patriots-Rams

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER between New England & Kansas City.

The Over on last Sunday's Chargers-Patriots game, my only play on a NFL total for the whole weekend, won easily. As you may have read when buying this selection, was a LOCK by halftime, a WINNER by the third quarter & ended up going Over by THREE touchdowns! New England had 35 points by halftime and then was able to take its foot off the gas. The amount of scoring done by the Patriots does decline greatly on the road. But the good news for this week is that they won't have to score nearly as many points this week for the game to go Over. Not when faced with Kansas City's offense, which ranked 1st in yards per game, per play and points during the regular season. When these teams met in the regular season, it was 43-40, a win for New England. Maybe this game isn't as high scoring. But I don't think they'll combined to score 30 less points, do you? The Over is 6-1 in the Patriots last seven playoff games. Play New England @ Kansas City OVER. 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the Over in Chargers-Patriots

The Chargers scored 23 points on the Ravens in the Wild Card Game, but they certainly didn't come easy. It was five field goals and a touchdown (with a 2-pt conversion). But keep in mind that was the best defense in the league they were facing. I got the distinct impression that had they been facing most other defenses, Philip Rivers and the offense would have scored a lot more points. Los Angeles averages 26.8 points per game and is one of the top teams in yards per play. So what I'm saying is that they should score more this week against the Patriots than they did last week vs. the Ravens. Of course, New England should score plenty as well. Tom Brady and the Pats offense were a lot more effective at home this year, so it's huge getting this game in Foxboro. They were the league's only unbeaten team at home (8-0) and a big reason for that is they averaged 32.9 PPG here. Only the Rams and Saints averaged more points at home this year. While each team has gone Under in its last three games, the Chargers had to play Baltimore twice (and a Denver team that isn't very good on offense) while the Patriots played two bad offensive teams (Jets, Bills) and a road game vs. the Steelers. Play OVER on Chargers-Patriots 

AAA

This is a 10* play on Over Chargers-Ravens

The 12-4 Chargers and the 10-6 Ravens just met two weeks ago with Baltimore holding LA to its worst offensive game of the season. The Bolts finished with just 198 total yards and no play went for more than 17. They scored only 10 points and their one touchdown came on a drive that started on Baltimore 17-yard line after a fumble. The Ravens ended up winning 22-10, sealing the deal with a defensive touchdown. Despite the inferior record, they get to be the home team this team by virtue of winning their division. Look for the sequel to be higher scoring than the original. Yes, Baltimore's defense is most definitely "for real," but the Chargers are one of the few (maybe the only?) team to play better on the road than at home. Philip Rivers posted the second best QBR in the league in road games this year. Also, Baltimore ran for "only" 159 yards in the first meeting. Though the Chargers are the first team that gets to see Lamar Jackson twice, don't expect their defense to have the same success the second time around. That previous rushing yardage total was the lowest for any of Jackson's seven starts and I expect the Ravens offense to be closer to 200, a number they've already cracked five teams with him as the starter. Play the OVER in Chargers-Ravens

AAA

This is a 7* play on the Under in Colts-Texans.

In my writeup on the side of this game, I established that I don't the Colts offense is in for a very successful game Saturday in Houston. The Texans defense is very strong against the run as they allow 3.4 yards per carry, which was the best mark in the NFL. To reiterate, the two times these teams played in the regular season, Indianapolis ran for just 91 yards. That wasn't their average per game, mind you. That was the total number of rush yards in two games (50 + 41). In three of the last five games, the Colts ran for 50 yards or less. Houston allows only 17.0 PPG at home. While I obviously expect them to win this game, look for them to have a somewhat limited day offensively as well. Over the last seven games, the Colts gave up more than 21 points just twice. The Under was 5-2 in those seven games, including the one here in H-town. The Under is also 8-1 the last nine times the Colts have played a team with a winning record. It's 5-1 their last six Wild Card games as well. Houston has seen the Under hit in five of its last seven home games and 13 of its last 18 against AFC teams. Play UNDER on Colts-Texans.

AAA

This is a 10* O/U BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Broncos/Raiders.

With nothing to play for, not even the role of spoiler, we look for these teams to simply “go through the motions” tonight. Denver Broncos coach Vance Joseph will be reportedly fired at the end of the season, so the entire organization is in upheaval right now. Jon Gruden completely blew up his roster and the Raiders will be in rebuilding mode for a few years. As mentioned off the top, these teams have nothing to play. Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 19 on the road, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five as a home underdog of seven points or less. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Texans/Eagles.

From a situational stand point, we think this one sets up great as a higher-scoring shootout. Both teams have struggled at times to put points on the board this season. Each relies heavily on its defensively play. Houston rebounded from a loss to the Colts to beat the Jets 29-22 last weekend. We look for DeShaun Watson and company to carry that momentum over here. Philadelphia enters off a much needed 30-23 road win over the Rams with Nick Foles under center last week. With nothing to lose, Foles and company will be given the green light today to test this tough Texans defense. Note though that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in six of seven off a road win vs. an opponent, while Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER in 14 of its last 23 after a SU victory. This number is low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* O/U BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Ravens/Chargers.

This is a big game for both teams. The Ravens come in on top form, having won four of five since rookie QB Lamar Jackson took ver the job. Jackson isn’t asked to do too much, just to protect the ball, throw short crossing routes and use his legs when he gets into trouble. The Ravens rely on a strong run game and their No. 1 ranked defense. The Chargers are 11-3 and they come in having won four straight. Philip Rivers and company will be doing everything they can to get the defensive minded Ravens out of their comfort zone and with the home side pushing the pace at every moment possible while on offense, we’re expecting this total to sneak OVER sooner than later. Note as well that Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while LA has seen the total go OVER in three of four already this year off a division game. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Saints/Panthers.

New Orleans is 11-2 and it still needs some victories to earn the bye with LA sitting with the identical record. The Saints own the tie-breaker, but clearly Brees and company can ill afford to take the foot off the gas at this point. Carolina opened the season 5-1, but at 6-7, it still is completely in the playoff hunt with three other clubs tied with an identical record. We’re fully expecting these “hungry” sides to open up the playbook and to push the pace from start to finish. Note as well that New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in its last three after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games, while Carolina has seen the total go OVER in five of six at home already. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Packers/Bears.

Green Bay put on an impressive performance in its 34-20 home win over the Falcons, but consistency on the road has been a big issue for Green Bay. And now the Packers face a revenge minded Bears team (lost 24-23 in the first meeting), which comes off its best defensive performance of the year in its 15-6 home win over the Rams. Green Bay is averaging 24.2 PPG and its allowing 23.6, while Chicago is averaging 27.6 PPG and allowing 19. Note that Green Bay has already seen the total go UNDER in all three games that it’s played in this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER in 13 of its last 22 at home. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER between the Texans/Jets.

The Jets have nothing to play for this season, but the players have everything to play for for next year. The Jets will be trying to build some momentum and something positive for 2019 and they’d love nothing more than to play spoiler to the Texans, who are looking to rebound after their nine-game win streak was snapped last week against division rival Indianapolis. Houston once again has a great defense, but the big difference has been the improved play of QB DeShaun Watson, who has 3,298 yards and 22 TD’s this year. Jets’ rookie QB Sam Darnold returned last week vs. the Bills and New York broke a three-game slide with a 27-23 win. There’s no reason not to think that Darnold and company won’t carry that momentum over here. Note that Houston has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after a loss by three points or less, while New York has seen the total go OVER in four of five already this season as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Chargers/Chiefs.

The Chiefs beat the Chargers in LA 38-28 in Week 1. The first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams is “high-scoring, gun-slinging” offenses. And why not? With Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers going head-to-head, there’s no doubt why this number has been posted so high. 

However, the short week and the extreme importance of the overall situation as far as playoff standings sets this up as more of a defensive affair in our opinion.

Additionally note that LA has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 16 vs. the division and in its last two Thursday night games, while KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in 17 of its last 24 at home and in three of its last four after a win by three points or less. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Rams/Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 16 after scoring 25 points or more in two straight games, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four after an extremely close road loss of three points or less.

The bottom line: Both of these first place teams still need victories to lock down a top playoff spot. All signs point to a higher-scoring affair; play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Saints/Cowboys.

Dallas has been getting the job done over its three game win streak with a strong run game and highly improved defensive play. The last thing the home side can do is try to match pace with Drew Brees and company, who are still looking to lock up the first round bye. But with the home side committed to try and control the pace of this one from start to finish, we do indeed expect a lower-scoring affair. Note as well that the Cowboys have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last nine home games following a three games or more SU unbeaten streak. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Titans/Texans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of eight vs. conference opponents already this season and in three of four vs. teams with winning records, while Houston has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last nine after two or more SU wins and in three of its last four MNF contests.

The bottom line: This is an important divisional contest and we’re expecting a classic, hard-hitting defensive battle. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER Falcons/Saints.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four “Thursday night” games, while New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER in ten of its last 15 after two or more SU victories. 

The bottom line: The Falcons are desperate for a win, as one more loss will essentially seal their fate. The last thing Atlanta can do is turn this into a shootout and expect to hang with Drew Brees and company. New Orleans has been amazing, but the short week lends itself to a letdown here. This one has UNDER written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is an 9* play on the OVER Skins/Boys.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense: 

Washington has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Dallas has seen the total spar OVER in three of four already this year.

The bottom line: No Alex Smith? No problem. The veteran was struggling mightily and we don’t see much of a drop off for the Redskins. It’s “next man up.” Dallas though will be looking to avenge a loss in Washington and to continue its resurgence with a third straight victory. With both teams pushing the pace, look for this one to fly OVER sooner, rather than later.

AAA Sports

This is an 9* play on the OVER Bears/Lions.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in all three games vs. division opponents this season and in its last four after two or more SU victories, while Detroit has seen the total go OVER eight of its last 11 vs. the division and in five of its last seven vs. teams with winning records.

The bottom line: Chicago can’t take the foot off the gas yet. The home side won’t go down without a fight. This one has OVER written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that KC has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last nine non-conference road games in which the total is set at 57 or higher, while LA has seen the total go UNDER in nine of its last 13 non-conference home games when the total is 60 or higher.

The bottom line: While many will be expecting a “shootout,” we think these hungry sides will play to much more of a defensive affair on the National Stage. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* O/U SPECIAL on the UNDER between the Raiders/Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Oakland has seen the total go UNDER the number in in six of its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in four of five at home already this season.

The bottom line: Nothing to play for here. Each benefits from losing for positioning in the draft. With both teams “going through the motions,” look for this one to stay UNDER the number.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Panthers/Lions.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with losing records, while Detroit has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven after two or more consecutive losses.

The bottom line: Carolina comes in off a humbling loss in Pittsburgh, but it’s still in second in the AFC South. The Lions are only averaging 21 PPG and in our opinion, this one has UNDER written all over it.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Texans/Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 15 vs. teams with winning records and in both games that it’s played in following its bye week, while Washington has seen the total go OVER the posted number in eight of 12 vs. teams with winning records and in five of its last eight a home dog of three points or less.

The bottom line: We’re expecting a wide open “shootout.” Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Lions/Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats:

As note that Detroit has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 19 at home and in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

This number is high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Panthers/Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last eight off a win against a division rival, while Pittsbugh has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 13 off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: Both teams playing at a very high level and each coming off an emotional divisional victory and playing on a “short week.” This one has defensive battle written all over it; play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER Titans/Cowboys.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Tennessee has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 18 against teams with losing records and in seven of its last nine non-conference contests, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER in six of its last nine as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range and in its last three following its bye week.

The bottom line: And both teams do indeed come out of the bye weeks. Both sides are desperate for victories and with each opening up the playbook, look for this one to fly OVER sooner, rather than later.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER Packers/Patriots.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total go UNDER in three of four already this year as favorite in the same points range.

The bottom-line: The Pats’ defense looked dominant in last week’s win over the Bills. The Packers’ defense also looked great in defeat to the Rams. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOUT on the UNDER Texans/Broncos 

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven after two or more consecutive victories and in 13 of its last 20 on the road (including in three of four this year), while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in three of four at home already and in all three games that it’s played against winning teams this season.

The bottom line: A very important game for both teams. Expect the defenses to be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Raiders/49ers.

The Raiders have completely torn their team apart and their only mission will be to protect QB Derek Carr for the remainder of the season. The 49ers come in on a six game losing streak and struggled to put points on the board against a poor Cardinals defense last weekend. The short week clearly isn’t going to help these struggling sides. Note that Oakland has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 23 as an underdog, while San Fran has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last eight off a loss against a division rival. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Saints/Vikes.

Two of the top teams in the league collide on Sunday night and while these two clubs normally play to wild, wide-open “shootouts,” we’re expecting more of a conservative affair between these hungry teams on the national stage. The numbers support that as well, as note that the Saints have in fact seen the total UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after two or more consecutive SU wins, while the Vikes have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 as an underdog. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Hawks/Lions.

Two teams coming off victories, but who are desperate for more collide on Sunday afternoon and in our opinion, offensive fireworks are in store. With each team pushing the pace from start to finish, expect this total to eclipse the number sooner than later. Additionally note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 14 as an underdog, while Detroit has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between TB and Cincinnati.

Both teams come in off losses and each is desperate for a victory. From a “situational” stand point, this one definitely sets up great for more of a “defensive” affair in our opinion. But further note that TB has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last ten non conference games and in nine of its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TV TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Dolphins/Texans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U stats and common sense:

As note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in 19 of its last 28 games played on a grass field, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 14 against teams with winning records.

The bottom line: Houston will be looking to deliver the knock out blow here and continue its surge after four straight wins. The Dolphins are down to their final gasp, but Brock Osweiler is going to be given the green light to “air it out” all night long. In the end, we look for this total to soar OVER once the final whistle sounds.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Giants/Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS stats and common sense: 

As note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 against teams with losing records and in 17 of its last 24 games played on “turf,” while the Falcons have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last ten off a win against a division rival and in their last four against an NFC East division opponent. 

The bottom line: New York obviously can’t get into a “shootout” with Matt Ryan on his home field and expect to win this one. With the visitors putting an added emphasis on their run game while on offense and taking into account the above strong O/U ATS stats, this number is indeed a little high in our opinion. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Bengals/Chiefs.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that the Bengals have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten following an ATS loss (27-20 setback to the Steelers,) while KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 40 points or more in its previous contest.

The bottom line: We think these two normally high-scoring teams come out flat on Sunday night; play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER Cowboys/Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in 7 of its last 11 against teams with winning records, while Washington has seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 12 against division opponents.

The bottom line: Both of these heated division rivals come in off victories and each will be leaving everything it has on the field of play today. We’re expecting a complete “shootout.” Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Browns/Bucs.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Cleveland has seen the total go UNDER the number in 17 of its last 25 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: These are two teams desperate for a win. The Browns can obviously ill afford to turn this into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with the up-tempo Bucs. All signs point to this one sneaking UNDER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Lions/Dolphins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Detroit has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last ten non-conference games and in its last two following its bye week, while Miami has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last eight when playing the role of underdog.

The bottom line: The Dolphins comes in off an impressive road win over Chicago and if it has any hopes in winning today, it’s going to have to duplicate its defensive performance against Matt Stafford and company. The Lions’s extra time off leads to “rust” here in our opinion as well. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Bucs/Saints.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on common sense and strong O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Tampa has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 12 after two or more consecutive losses, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six after three or more consecutive SU losses. 

The bottom line: Tampa comes out of its bye week off two wins and desperate for a victory. The Bucs have been atrocious against the pass in the early going, but with a week off to prepare I’m expecting a marked improvement. It’s a huge game for both teams and we believe the pressure, along with all of the above posted situational and trend based factors do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy call in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the Colts/Jets.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Indianapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in 16 of its last 28 as an underdog and in 10 of its last 15 when the total in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while New York has seen the total go UNDER in seven of ten when playing against a team with a losing record and in four of its last six as a favorite. 

The bottom line: This number is a little bit high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Colts/Pats.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Indianapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses and in seven of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 13 against teams with losing records.

The bottom line: The Colts can’t afford to turn this one into a “shootout” and expect to hand with Tom Brady. Andrew Luck has been decent this season, but his No. 1 WR Ty Hilton is questionable here and if he does play, he clearly won’t be at 100%. On a short week, look for the visitors to try and control the clock while on offense. The Pats come in off the big win over the Dolphins last week, but consistency from game to game can’t be trusted yet at this point either in our opinion. We’re banking on this one staying UNDER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER Chiefs/Broncos.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU victories and in 18 of its last 28 as the favorite, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in interestingly seven of its last nine games played in the month of October.

The bottom line: These are two teams which pride have in the past, prided themselves on their tough defensive play. But those days are gone, as each plays at much more up-tempo and frantic pace. But after their flawless start, we think KC finally takes a step back here in this difficult road venue. The Broncos’ defense isn’t what it used to be, but we think it can get in the back field today to throw Patrick Mahomes off his game. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Hawks/Cards.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last nine against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: It’s an important divisional battle for these struggling rivals. The situation and the numbers/stats to do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move on the total in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER Steelers/Bucs.

Pittsburgh’s season is on the line. RB Bell is out, meaning that everything falls onto Ben Roethlisberger’s broad shoulders. If the Steelers are ever going to win this games, it’s going to be on Big Ben’s arm. We expect Pittsburgh to open up the playbook through the air today, early often and throughout. Tampa is off to an unreal 2-0 start thanks to incredible play from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (8:1 TD:INT) and an offense which is “firing on all cylinders.” And that’s bad news for a Steelers’ defense which has looked terrible this season, giving up over 40 points to the Chiefs last week. We’re expecting a high-tempo, high-scoring OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Colts and the Eagles.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense:

As note that Indianapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER in 13 of its last 19 at home and in 7 of its last 11 as a fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

The bottom line: The Eagles’ defense looks to get back on track after last week’s stunning collapse. Expect that to happen against a shaky Andrew Luck. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Saints/Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS trends and common sense:

As note that New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 18 road games when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last nine off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: We’re expecting these two normally high-scoring division rivals to play to more of a lower-scoring defensive battle on Sunday afternoon. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Jets/Browns.

After a great opener, Sam Darnold and the Jets came back down to Earth in Week 2. The short week on the road isn’t going to help cohesion for this young team either in our opinion. On the offensive side of the ball that is. Defensively the Jets have been strong this year, allowing just 18.5 PPG. The Browns could easily be 2-0, but they’re not, they’re just 0-1-1. Cleveland continues to work through growing pains offensively, the strength being the running game which has posted 135 YPG average in the early going. Defensively the team has been sharp as well though in allowing just 21 PPG. Two young teams on a short week. Something has to give here and we believe it’ll be the offensive units. Look for the defenses to dominate the summaries tomorrow morning. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Rams/Raiders.

The last thing the Raiders can do here is get into a “shootout” and expect to win this against the league’s No. 1 offense from a year ago. Oakland traded away star player Kahlil Mack to the Bears for draft picks so the Rams have to be liking their chances tonight, but the Raiders catch a tiny break here in that none of the Rams starters saw any time in the preseason. For our Over/Under selections (in every sport), we are always on the look out for situations like this one to take advantage of. LA’s offense is rusty and the Raiders are going to want to slow this one down at every moment possible as they look to control the clock on offense, so as to limit the time the Rams’ offense is on the field of play. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high; play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the 49ers and Vikings.

San Fran went 6-10 last year, while Minnesota was 13-3. The 49ers got a boost with the acquisition of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who had 1,560 receiving yards and a 7:5 TD:INT over six games. The 49ers only averaged 20.7 PPG last year and they could find it difficult to today to get any early chemistry going against last year’s second best defense. The Vikes allowed only 15.8 PPG, while averaging 23.9. Minnesota got Kirk Cousins in the off-season and he’s a major upgrade on the offensive end, but early chemistry will surely be an issue. The 49ers strength last year was the defense, allowing just 23.9 PPG. Richard Sherman should make that unit a lot better this season as well. More question marks on the offensive side of the ball for each side, than on the defensive. This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the New England Patriots.

As stated in our play on the Jaguars, we think that Blake Bortles and Leonard Fournette will give the Patriots’ defense everything it can handle today. The Jags are No. 1 against the pass this year, but the unit looked terrible in last week’s high-scoring win at Pittsburgh. Tom Brady was his usual efficient self last week, finishing with 350 yards and three TD’s. New England averages 28.9 PPG and we think they’ll be able to find some holes today as well against this aggressive Jaguars unit. Note that Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while New England has seen the total go OVER the number in six of nine at home this year already and in five of its last six playoff games overall. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Jacksonville came up big defensively against the inept Bills, limiting them to just 263 total yards, including just 133 passing. The Jags though figure to have a much more difficult time in Pittsburgh, who will look to take Jacksonville out of its comfort zone by pushing the pace early and often. We think the Jags are going to be forced to play from behind today and therefore, they’re going to have to abandon the run and start airing it out. We also expect to see some defensive TD’s produced from both of these talented groups. Note that Jacksonville has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two as a road dog in the seven to ten points range, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight at home this season. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Eagles were among the league leaders in every offensive statistical category this year, but with starting QB Carson Wentz down with injury for the season, not many are giving his back up Nick Foles a chance. But with an extra week off to prepare, we expect the home side to put some points on the board tonight. The Falcons looked great in their Wildcard win over the Rams, capitalizing on mistakes and in the end getting solid production from their offensive veterans. Atlanta was decent defensively this year, but Philadelphia for the most part relied on its offense to carry the load most weeks this season. Philadelphia finds itself an underdog in this game. The Eagles aren’t going to get by the Falcons by “playing it safe.” We look for Philadelphia to come out and push the pace and in a game which we envision being very competitive until the final moments, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the Carolina Panthers and the New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans beat Carolina twice in the regular season (34-13 and 31-21.) The main thing we took out of those two games is that the Panthers are unable to slow down Drew Brees, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Carolina won’t be rolling over, it comes in averaging 22.7 PPG, while allowing 20.4. Cam Newton had a sub-par season (22:16 TD:INT), but he has a big opportunity to avenge the two regular season losses and wipe away doubters/haters with a big performance. We’re expecting the dynamic QB to be at his best today. The Saints average 28 PPG and allow 20.4. Brees had a tremendous year with a 23:8 TD:INT. Note that he was particularly impressive against the Panthers as well this year with 389 yards and a 4:0 TD:INT in two games. Note that Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in four of seven as an underdog this year and in six of eight against teams with winning records, while New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight at home this season and in six of 11 as a favorite. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Bengals and the Ravens.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four already this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in two of three road games when the total in the contest is set between 38.5 and 42 points, while Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in all three games that it’s played in so far this after playing to two or more consecutive SU wins.

The bottom line: This is a big game for the Ravens, who will need to win this game and get some outside help for a spot in the playoffs. The Bengals won’t be in the postseason, but they come in off a 26-17 win over Detroit and they’ll be looking to not only play spoiler with a big victory today, but also to atone for a 20-0 setback to the Ravens earlier in the season. We think this one will be much more “wide open” than what the books would like us to believe. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Saints and the Buccaneers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four road games already this year when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 51 points and in 12 of its last 15 against teams with losing records, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after five or more consecutive SU losses.

The bottom line: Tampa plays with revenge after falling to New Orleans 30-10 earlier in the season. The Saints want to hit the playoffs on a high note and neither of these sides will be rolling over today. When you take into account the above strong O/U trends, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

 This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Lions and Bengals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the number in all three games that it’s played this year following a win against a division rival and in four of six on the road this year, while Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four already this year after two or more consecutive losses. 

The bottom line: The Lions are in a dog fight for one of the remaining wild card spots and they come in with plenty of momentum after winning two straight, including a 20-10 victory over Chicago in their most recent action. With a game at home against an already eliminated Green Bay Packer team next week, the Lions have a very realistic shot at finishing the season at 10-6. But they won’t want to leave anything to chance this weekend as they’ll look to open up the playbook and try to put away the Bengals early. And for Cincinnati, it’s officially out of playoff contention and it comes in having lost three straight. Andy Dalton and company are now trying to prove themselves and finish up the season strong. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little low. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Browns and Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Cleveland has seen the total go OVER the number in all three non-conference games that it’s played in this year and in four of six on the road, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 14 off a divisional contest.

The bottom line: Two teams with nothing to play for but pride today. But there are many players on both teams and on both sides of the ball playing for a future job. That includes these two young QB’s. We’re expecting each side to open up the playbook and for this one to fly well OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports