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We like the Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs game to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 6:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Buffalo is coming off a 27-25 win over Baltimore in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.

The Bills have now seen the total finish OVER in eight of their L11 games.

Five of their L6 games played on the road have also gone OVER the total.

Kansas City played well defensively against Houston in its first game, but this is a big difference in offensive level from its opponents.

The Chiefs and Bills have gone OVER in five of their L7 games played against each other.

The score was 30-21 going OVER the total earlier this season when these teams played. That included one quarter seeing no points.

This one will go OVER as well.

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We like the Minnesota Vikings to defeat the Los Angeles Rams on Monday at 8:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Minnesota got shut down in the last game of the season against Detroit scoring only nine points.

The Vikings were going to travel across the USA to an LA city that's currently "burning up" due to wildfires, but now this game has been moved to Arizona which just barely a shorter flight.

We think that they could definitely have some trouble scoring again against the Rams who will be rested up for this game.

Minnesota's defense is also strong though. With its "show blitz" looks, it could confuse the Rams offense a bit.

Before last weekend, Los Angeles saw the total stay UNDER in three games in a row.

The Rams have also seen the total go UNDER in five straight games played on a Monday (Prime-time.)

We think that this line is too high and that we will see a good showing from both of these defenses tonight.

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We like the Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 8:20pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Minnesota has averaged 31.5 points a game over its L4 games this season.

The Vikings have seen the total go OVER in four their L6 games.

They've also seen their games finish OVER in 7 of their L8 games played within their own division - NFC North.

Detroit is averaging 33.3 points a game throughout this season, ranking them 1st in the NFL.

The Lions have seen the total go OVER in 5 of their L6 games this year.

Each of the L6 games between these two teams have finished OVER.

We know this is one of the biggest totals that we've seen this season. But, it's for a good reasons. This one goes OVER.

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We like the New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

New Orleans is averaging less than 20 points a game this season.

The Saints have seen the total stay UNDER in each of their L5 games.

Five of their L6 games played against opponents from the NFC have finished UNDER as well.

Tampa has shut teams down over its L3 wins. In those games, they are allowing an average of just 14.66 points a game.

Over the L6 meetings between these two teams, five of them have stayed UNDER.

Tampa should be prepared for this game defensively. A win puts them in the playoffs without any scare.

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We like the Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Dallas is scoring a lot more now that Cooper Rush has had a few games to get settled in.

Since week 12, the Cowboys are averaging 27.4 points a game.

They have seen the total go OVER in five of their L6 games.

Philadelphia lost because of a missed catch by Devonta Smith last weekend (33-36.)

The Eagles are a run first team. But, they still score lots of points.

Six of the L8 games between these two teams have finished OVER the total.

We think that this one will go OVER this total as well.

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We like the Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams game to finish UNDER the total on Saturday at 8:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Arizona might be out of the playoff race now. But, the road team will still fight and try and spoil other division opponents playoff chances.

The Cardinals have a solid defense and held the Rams to just 10 points when they met earlier this season.

They have seen the total finish OVER in three straight games, making this total higher than it should be.

The Rams are only averaging 21.9 points a game which is low considering that they are the sizable favorite.

Los Angeles has seen the total go UNDER in five of its L6 games played as the betting favorite.

We think that this one stays UNDER the high total as well.

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We like the New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 4:25pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

New England is 3-11 this season averaging just 17.0 points a game.

The Pats have gone OVER in most games this season. But, their offense will not get them many points in this game.

Over the L4 meetings in Buffalo between these two teams, the Patriots are averaging just 18.75 points a game.

Buffalo has been scoring easily lately. We think they will slow down a bit in this divisional matchup.

The Bills need to improve their time management and defense before the playoffs. It's fun playing in high scoring games when you win, but it might come back to cost them in a playoff game.

We think they work on that here and this one stays UNDER the total.

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We like the Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Cleveland is out of the playoff race, but still are fighting to win games. This is a divisional game which they should want to win.

Cincinnati has one of the worst defenses in the league which is why Burrow is leading in many categories and they are still not making the postseason.

That means, the Browns should be able to score against a defense that allows 27.6 points a game.

The Bengals have gone OVER in 10 of their 14 games this season.

These teams have seen 7 of their L8 games against each other played in Cincinnati finish OVER the total.

We think another OVER is coming up this week.

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We like the Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers game to finish OVER the total on Thursday at 8:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Over the L4 games, Denver is averaging 34.75 points per game themselves.

The Broncos have now seen the total go OVER in seven of their L10 games.

The OVER is also 4-1 in their L5 games played inside the AFC West.

With Dobbins out, the Chargers have been forced to throw a bit more than they did earlier this season.

The Chargers have seen the total go OVER in four of their L5 games played at home.

We know these teams have great defenses. But, we think the offenses will take control and steer this one OVER the total on TNF.

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We like the New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

New York has been playing disappointing football nearly every week of this season. NYJ is 3-10 now on the year.

The Jets have been in high scoring games lately, but this game should be a lot lower scoring of a contest. They've scored an average of 18.4 points per game on the road.

Jacksonville hasn't been scoring much either lately. JAX has scored an average of just 11.5 points over the L4 games.

The Jaguars are also coming off a game where they shut down Tennessee completely allowing six total points.

The Jags have seen each of their L5 games stay UNDER the total as well.

We think that this one will stay UNDER easily today.

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We like the New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys game to finish OVER the total on Thursday at 4:30pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Giants haven't been very good this year. They cut their QB and now will take on a Division Rival on Thanksgiving Thursday. This will be treated like their Super Bowl.

When the Giants have met with the Cowboys in Dallas, five straight meetings have finished OVER the total.

Overall, the OVER is 8-4 over their L12 meetings between these two teams.

Dallas have also seen the total go OVER in nine of their L13 games since the end of last year.

The Cowboys looked very good offensively last weekend against Washington scoring 34 points.

This line is very low. We think this one goes OVER the total.

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We like the Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 8:20pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

As we saw last week, both offenses can score. But, we expect a more defensive style of football game today.

The Rams have seen the total go UNDER in four of their L6 games this season.

LAR have also been in games that have gone UNDER the total in five of their L7 games played in November.

The Eagles and their opponents have kept the total UNDER in eight of their L12 games since last season.

The UNDER is also 8-2 in the Eagles' L10 games played away from home.

Their last matchup back in 2023 stayed UNDER by double digits!

We think another UNDER is on the cards today, especially in Primetime.

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We like the Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns to finish OVER the total on Thursday at 8:15pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

In the past, these teams have been known for their defensive abilities. They still are, which is why the total is sitting at 36.5. But, not as much anymore.

Even though they didn't score a single TD last week, the Steelers offense has been much better with Russell Wilson under center.

Pittsburgh has now seen four of their L5 games go OVER the total this season.

The Browns have allowed nearly 25 points per game this season.

Cleveland will be looking to step it up offensively off back-to-back blowout losses.

They will need to score to keep up in today's game and we think that they will as just a field goal underdog.

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We like the Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints game to finish UNDER the total for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

The Browns have been quite substandard this year. They are 2-7 and are averaging only 16.4 points per game.

Relying on the running game more than ever, Cleveland should be doing the same thing today.

New Orleans is off their first win in seven games. They are averaging 22.7 points per game.

The Saints have seen four of the L5 home games in the month of November stay UNDER the total.

The last time they played, the O/U line was only 32 points. That game still went UNDER the total with 27 total points.

We'll take the UNDER today. Getting at least 44.0 could be huge if they get more points than we're expecting.

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We like the Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts game to finish UNDER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Even though their stats don't look the greatest, Indianapolis has a solid defense. They shut down the Vikings offense for the most part on SNF last weekend.

Even after allowing 27 last weekend to the Dolphins, the Bills have given up an average of just 15.66 points per game over the L3 weeks.

Buffalo have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last six games played away from home.

After last weeks game, the total has gone UNDER in four Indianapolis games in a row.

Seven of the past ten games between these two sides have finished UNDER the total.

We are expecting both teams to establish a running game early to chew some clock after failing to do so last week.

Indianapolis will be looking to bounce back after back to back losses. They'll focus on defense once again first and foremost. We're going with the UNDER in week 10's matchup between Buf/Ind.

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We like the Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins game to finish OVER the total on Sunday at 1:00pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Miami has not been the same at all offensively without Tua. Now, they get their QB back and should be threats to be a top offense in the league once again.

Arizona gives up an average of 25.4 points per game this year.

The past five times these teams have played each other, the game has finished OVER the total.

The OVER is 3-1-1 in the Cardinals last five games as a road underdog.

Miami gave up 31 points to the Titans in Week 4, which was the last time they were a home favorite.

Tyreek Hill is going to want to put on a show with Tua back. This is going to be a high scoring game.

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We like the Houston Texans/Green Bay Packers game to finish OVER the total on Sunday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

With Romeo Doubs/Christian Watson back last week, Jordan Love looked phenomenal. He threw for four touchdown passes in the win.

CJ Stroud looked just as strong last week. He didn't need to throw for many yards. But, he ended up with three touchdown passes himself.

Both of these offenses have plenty of quick strike ability. When one team scores, the other will want to match.

Houston allowed 21 points last week to a poor New England offense that ranks second last in the NFL in points per game. Just think what a team ranked in the top 10 (Green Bay) could do.

Green Bay has seen the total go OVER in 10 of their last 15 games.

Although the last meeting between these teams went UNDER, they still ended up with 55 points (line was 55.5.)

This is a banged up Houston defense with their "leader" Azeez Al-Shaair battling a knee injury. If he's able to go this week, we don't expect him to be 100%.

We're looking for a high scoring game this Sunday in what should be one of the matchups of the week that everyone wants to watch. The play is on the OVER. Get in on it fast because the line could go up!

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We like the Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers to go OVER the total on Sunday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Fields has been throwing quite a bit this season and might have to extend some plays himself with two of his top three running backs out.

Micah Parsons is out today which should give Justin Fields a bit more time in the pocket.

In their last six games against each other, four of them have gone OVER the total.

Dallas has seen five of their last six games go OVER as well.

The Cowboys need to start getting their offense going this week. We know it's a tough matchup but believe that they can get it done.

The Colts put 27 up on Pittsburgh last week. Look for this game to go OVER on Sunday Night.

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We like the Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions to go Over for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

We won with the under when the Lions played on primetime in Week 1. This is a far lower total though as that one was in the 50s. 

The Lions are averaging 399.7 yards per game, top 5 in the NFL. 

The Seahawks have scored 23 or more points in all 3 of their games. Since last year, they have scored 20 or more points in 7 straight games.

These teams faced each other last September and combined for 68 points. They also faced each other twice in 2022 and those games finished with 90 and 93 points! 

The over is the play! 

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We like the Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts to go Over for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

The total is one of the lowest of any of the Sunday totals.

The Steelers offense was solid last game. They got stronger as the game wore on and will bring the momentum into this game against a weak Indianapolis defense.

The Colts are giving up 398.3 yards per game, second most in the entire NFL.

On offense, the Colts have scored more than 20 points in 2 of their 3 games. The Colts scored 30 against Pittsburgh in last season's game.

The past four meetings have all produced greater than 40 points.

The over is the play.

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We like Cincinnati and Washington under on Monday night for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones.

The Bengals are averaging only 17.5 points. The Commanders are averaging just 20.5 points. 

The Bengals offense is averaging just 272 yards per game. Their defense is allowing only 288 yards per game. 

Burrow threw for only 201 yards and 1 touchdown in his only previous game vs. Washington. The final score was 20-9. 

Washington is running the ball more than most teams in the league and they rank #3 in rushing yards per game. Those running plays keep the clocking ticking. 

The total is high. The play is the under. 

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We like the Chargers and Steelers to go over for a number of reasons. Here are some of the most important ones:

1. The total is very low, the lowest of any Week 3 game. It has dropped lower since it was released and that's providing strong line value. 

2. The Chargers just scored 26 points last game and that was when they took their foot off the gas in the 2nd half.

3. The Steelers offense has struggled but both their games were on the road against strong defensive teams. The Chargers defense has also been strong but playing Carolina helped pad the stats. Playing at home should help the Steelers. 

4. Fields now has a couple of games under his belt with the Steelers and his confidence is growing. Herbert has an ankle injury but is pushing to play. If Easton Stick is forced to play, we feel that he'll outperform expectations. 

5. The last meeting (2021) finished with 88 points and the last 7 meetings have all produced at least 41 points.

The defenses have played well but this total is still too low. The offenses will be better than people expect. The play is on the over. 

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Atlanta looked poor offensively in its 18-10 home loss to Pittsburgh. The bright spot was the Falcons' defense and everything points to these trends continuing here on the road in this difficult road venue. The Eagles had to play from behind pretty much the entire game in their win at Brazil. That changed the way the game played out. Philly was just 4 of 14 on third down and turned the ball over three times. With the home side putting an added emphasis on protecting the football and establishing the run game, we're ultimately expecting a much slower overall pace this week. The Eagles offense took a big hit when it was announced that A.J. Brown would miss this game with a ham-string injury. Kirk Cousins was running for his life several times in the Falcons' Week 1 loss, and his offensive line could have another difficult time here in Week 2 as well. Adding up all of the above factors definitely points to the "under" as the correct call in this one!

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New Orleans dismantled Carolina 47-10 at home, but now hitting the road for the first time to face this talented Dallas defense, we're expecting a completely difference pace and tempo from the visitors. Dallas returns home off a successful 33-17 win over the Browns, and we also think that the Cowboys will be looking to protect the ball better here and establish the run game throughout. Add up these game plans and you have a contest that's decided by field position and in the trenches. With the high-scoring Week 1 results, this is an extra high o/u line. We feel that these are two of the best defenses in football. New Orleans was just 4-5 on the road last year, while Dallas was 8-0 at home. Let's not overreact to Saints' QB Derek Carr's performance. Throwing for three TD's and only 200 yards looks good on paper, but then we remember who they were playing in Week 1. It's going to be significantly more difficult here vs. the Cowboys, who looked really good in shutting down DeShaun Watson and company. The Under is the play!

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Plenty of reasons for us to like the over here. Buffalo's defense looked shaky in last week's 34-28 home win over the Cardinals. Josh Allen was great against the Dolphins last year, completing 81 percent of his passes while averaging 340 yards passing per game. He also averaged 42 yards per game rushing. Despite winning 20-17 last weekend, the Dolphins still allowed the Jags to rush for the seventh-most rushing yards last weekend. Keep in mind that 3 of the past 4 meetings have finished with more than 60 points. Each offense looked "rusty" in the first half, and each looked a lot better in the second. We look for that offensive trend to carry over here on Thursday with the final score finishing with more than 50 points.

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We have a great Monday night matchup to open the season and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch. I just a real common sense play here, as New York will be looking to get the most out of its 40-year-old investment under center. Aaron Rodgers will also feel he has something to prove this season obviously. These teams haven't played since 2020, and the 49ers won that contest by a score of 31-13 in New Jersey. We're definitely expecting a much more competitive game this time around. Rodgers has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. The defense though is going to be tested facing Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey at home. San Francisco's last 10 home games have all finished over the 40 mark and 4 of the past 5 (and 7 of the 10) finished with 44 or more. Admittedly these are two good defenses, but in our opinion, everything points to these two dynamic quarterbacks "stealing the headlines." SF cannot be stopped and NY will have to score to keep up. This number has fallen from when it came out, right past the key number of 44, is low. Over is the play.

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Whenever the LA Rams and Detroit Lions get together, the focus turns to the two veteran QB's. Detroit got Jared Goff, who led his team to an NFC Championship last year, while LA got Matt Stafford, who led the Rams to a Super Bowl championship in his first season. The last time these teams met was in January, the final score was 24-23. The last time these teams met in the regular season was back in 2021 and the Rams won 28-19 at home. We're expecting a similar hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring battle (relative to the very high total) here as well. Detroit is 8-1 in its last nine at home and the last thing it'll want to do here is to try and turn this into a "shootout" against Stafford. We're expecting Detroit to get Goff to be a game manager here and to control the tempo of this one. We should also mention that the Lions secondary is much improved from the last time that the Rams saw it. It was a weakness last year but will be a strength this season. With each offense getting out to a tentative start like we suspect, we're expecting this total to fall "under" the big number once it's all said and done!

This game is being played in Brazil, the first ever NFL game in South America. These types of scenarios often have a way of leading to more of a defensive lower-scoring outcome, due to the unfamiliarity of their surroundings. We have two really good QB's going head-to-head here, but we're expecting each side to put an added emphasis onto establishing the run game while on offense. That helps take pressure off their defense and to keep the opposing QB on the bench. It also keeps the clock moving. Keep in mind that this is a very high total, much higher than the total of 46 that these teams had when they last faced each. Three of GB's last four games finished with 45 or less. The Eagles last 2 games finished with 41 or less. They'll score but not enough to surpass this high line. We're on the "under!"

10* UNDER 49ers/Chiefs (TOM)

Two great offenses. Two great defenses. Honestly, it would not be difficult for us to write a convincing argument for this to be a high-scoring game, but for a number of different reasons we are expecting Super Bowl 58 to be a very defensive affair. San Francisco averages 28.9 PPG, which ranks third, while allowing 17.5, which ranks third as well. Kansas City only averages 21.8 PPG though, which is 15th overall. The big news for the Chiefs in the postseason and throughout the regular season as well though has been their tough defensive play, as they enter the big game conceding 17.3, ranked second in the league. Despite having Patrick Mahomes under center, the last thing that KC wants to do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with the hungry 49ers. Instead they'll look to suffocate this offense and control the clock. Mahomes won't feel nearly as much pressure as his counterpart and should expertly be able to "control" the pace of this one. In our opinion Super Bowl 58 will be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" becomes the savvy call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* Chiefs/Ravens UNDER (BLOCKBUSTER)

Although this game definitely features two of the best QB's on Earth right now, we're expecting this contest to be won in the trenches and by field position. Whichever team establishes the run and looks after the football is going to come out on top. Each offense will be doing its best to limit the time the other unit is on the field, and that means establishing the run game throughout. The Chiefs beat the Fish 26-7 in the Wildcard at home, before holding on for the 27-24 win at Buffalo last weekend. We're anticipating more of a defensive lower-scoring battle like the Chiefs participated in the Wildcard. Baltimore held the Texans to just ten points, and the Chiefs' sub-par offense could be in trouble on the road here as well. In our opinion, this number is indeed high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Bills (BLOOD-BATH)

These teams played in Kansas City back on December 10th and the Bills won a tight and lower-scoring battle by a score of 20-17. Will the Chiefs get their revenge here, or will the Bills take advantage of home field and pull out another win and cover? We're not 100% sure WHO will win and cover in this game, but we're for sure absolutely expecting another lower-scoring battle. Note that KC has seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. We're expecting this one to be decided in the trenches and by field position and in a contest like that, the "under" is almost always the correct call as far as the total is concerned, and that's the case here in this divisional round matchup; in our estimation, this number is a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Texans/Ravens (DIV. RND TOY)

With nearly 65% of the early public money on the Texans, most everyone here feels that CJ Stroud and company can keep the offensive momentum rolling here vs. this difficult Ravens defense. And why not though, as the Browns had the No. 1 defense in the league and were just torched for 45 points. And for Baltimore, it has had the advantage of having a week off to heal up. We're expecting LaMar Jackson to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. We base our picks on many different things, this particular one sets up really from a "situational" stand point in our opinion. Everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

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10* OVER Eagles/Bucs (BLOCKBUSTER)

Both teams struggled down the stretch of the regular season after great starts. Regardless, here we are and in our opinion, everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This playoffs has so far been anything but predictable. The Browns had the best defense in the league and they just gave up 45 points to the Texans, while the Dolphins leds the league in total offense, and only managed 7 points vs. a sub-par Chiefs' defense. And we absolutely believe that the oddsmakers are wrong in this case as well. Philadelphia held Tampa to just 11 points in a low-scoring win here earlier in the year, but note that Tampa has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. This number is a little low, the play is the "over!"

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10* Browns/Texans UNDER (WILDCARD RND TOY)

They say defense wins championships, and in our estimation the team that plays the best on that side of the field and wins the war in the trenches and the field position battle will be the one that comes out on top. These teams will look to establish the run throughout as to limit the mistakes their QB's can make in this pressure packed situation. The Texans won the AFC South at 10-7, while Cleveland was second in the AFC North. This is the second meeting between the teams in the last three weeks, with the Browns getting the better of the Texans by a score of 36-22 on Christmas Eve. Note though that Houston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. CJ Stroud didn't play in that game and while he'll be back in this one, as stated off the top, we're absolutely expecting each side to try and use the run game to set up the pass. These teams didn't get here because of their explosive offenses and unbelievable QB's. They got here because of their great defensive play. And that's what we're expecting, a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Jets/Browns (TOW)

This is an important game for both teams. To us, this is a great "situational" play on the "under." New York is 6-9 and hasn't thrown in the towel yet after a 30-28 win over Washington on X-Mas Eve. The 30 points scored is an outlier for sure though, as NY combined for just 14 points over its previous three games. Now on the road in this difficult venue, we can expect a return to form on the offensive end here, which is obviously really terrible. Cleveland is 10-5 and getting unreal play from veteran Joe Flacco, but after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, soring 87 points in the process, we feel that the "short week" will benefit these defenses a lot more. This number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* OVER Ravens/49ers (NON-CONF TOW)

Is this a possible Super Bowl preview here in Prime Time on X-Mas day?! Very possibly! Who knows for sure, but each side enters at 11-3. Each has dealt with injury issues this year and some off-field adversity. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS on the road, while the 49ers are 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS at home. These teams are very evenly matched for the most part, and we feel this line is very sharp. We're going to steer clear of choosing a side, and instead focus on the total. The 49ers just annihilated the Cardinals 45-29 and there's no reason not to think they can't carry over that offensive momentum here. The Ravens have won four straight, which included a 37-31 OT win over NFC West LA Rams just two weeks ago, and we're expecting a similar wide-open offensive battle here on the West Coast on X-Mas day as well; this number is a little low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"

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10* UNDER Ravens/Jags (SUPER TOTAL)

This total opened at 44, and it's since dropped. But it's not dropped nearly enough in our estimation, as we're expecting a very lower-scoring defensive "war of attrition." Baltimore if 10-3, including 4-1 on the road, while Jacksonville is 8-5, including 2-4 at home. Baltimore has won three straight, while Jacksonville has lost two straight. But after last week's 37-31 OT win over the Rams, we're expecting a more conservative game-plan from the Ravens here on the road. Overall the Ravens average 27.8 PPG, while allowing 16.8. The Jags have a QB issue right now with Trevor Lawrence injured. Backup Joe Flacco looked decent last week, but as we say, the QB situation isn't the greatest right now for the home side. Jacksonville averages 24 PPG, while allowing 22.3. With both teams coming off high-scoring affairs, in our opinion everything points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle this time around, where field position and taking care of the football will become the deciding factors on who comes out on top; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* Chargers/Raiders OVER (AFC TOW)

LA is 5-8 and it's lost its starting QB for the remainder of the year. Last week the Chargers fell 24-7 at home to Denver. Las Vegas is 5-8 and it's coming off a 3-0 home loss to Minnesota last Sunday. LA has lost four of its last five and it's averaged just 7.7 PPG over its last three. Overall though the Chargers average 21.7 PPG. The problem is, the defense is also conceding 21.7 PPG as well. Look for Easton Stick to be given the green light here and to improve upon his numbers from last week vs. Denver, where he finished 13 of 24 for 179 yards. The Raiders are only averaging 15.5 PPG, while allowing 19.9. Last week QB Aidan O'Connel went 21 of 32 for 171 yards. So far he's average 195 yards passing as a starter and has a 4:7 TD:INT. The Raiders though have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten though off a SU/ATS shutout home loss. Yes, these teams are messes, but the overall situation finally points to more of a wide-open offensive affair; this number is indeed a little low, the play is the "over!" 

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8* UNDER Packers/Giants.

Green Bay is 6-6 and New York is 4-8. The Giants have won two in a row and they'll be eager to extend that streak here against the rookie Jordan Love, who has been on fire for the visiting side. The Packers have won three straight and four of their last five including a convincing 27-19 home win over the Chiefs last weekend. We think most impressive though was the Packers defense. The last thing New York can do here is to turn this into a "track meet" with Love. With both sides looking to limit mistakes on the national stage, look for field position to play a big part in the final outcome of this one and for this total to ultimatley stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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8* UNDER Titans/Dolphins.

We're making a play on the Titans and grabbing the points in this one, as well as also expecting this contest to be a lower-scoring defensive affair. Tennessee's defense is conceding just 21.3 PPG. We're also expecting the home side to take the foot off the gas in the second half as it gets caught looking ahead. Field position will be crucial in the end in deciding this contest; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Eagles/Cowboys (NFC EAST TOY)

These two teams are steaming towards the finish line. Philadelphia is 10-2, including 5-1 on the road, while Dallas is 9-3, including 6-0 at home. Dallas has seen the total go "over" in five of its last six after last week's 41-35 victory over Seattle. The Cowboys play with revenge as well after a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia back in November, and note that Dallas has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Philadephia's five-game win streak was snapped in last week's listless 42-19 loss at San Francisco, so we just feel that Philly will be extra cautious and we expect it to double down on the defensive end in this difficult road venue. Look for the rematch to be decided by field position and ultimately expect this total to stay well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Broncos/Chargers (AFC WEST TOM)

Denver is 6-6 now after falling 22-17 at Houston last weekend. Previous to that Denver had won six straight. The Broncos now face divisional opponent LA, which snapped a three game slide with a 6-0 win at new England last time out. That however is very significant to note here as the Chargers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS road win in which they shutout their opponent. It's a super important divisional game and we're fully expecting this sense of intense competition to translate into offensive production on the field of play; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Hawks/Cowboys (TOW)

Dallas is 8-3 and it's won three in a row, scoring 127 points in that span. Clearly, if Seattle is going to have any chance in this game, then it's going to have to control the ball while on offense so as to limit the amount of time that Dak Prescott and company are on the field of play. We just think that on the short week, we're going to see a more conservative game plan from Dallas as well here as it looks to dictate the tempo. Dallas gets caught looking ahead here as well to its game vs. division rival Philly here the following week, while the visiting side does the same with a rematch vs. the 49ers. Normally high-scoring teams, expect this Thursday night matchup to go the other way; this number is a bit high in our estimation, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Bucs/Colts (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been involved in lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting a bit of a shootout here between these non-conference opponents on Sunday afternoon. Tampa has lost five of its last six. This is a big game obviously. It's off the 27-14 road loss at San Francisco. The Colts have won two in a row, including a 10-6 victory over New Enland two weeks ago (note thought that the Colts have seen the total go "over" the number in three of their last four coming off their bye week.) Both teams are still in the mix for a Wildcard, but each needs to start stringing some wins together. With each pushing the pace like we anticipate and opening things up on the offensive end, look for this total to indeed eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Jets/Bills (AFC EAST TOY)

It's a big game for each side, and while both have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, including in their first meeting of the year back in Week 1 when the Jets upset the Bills at home by a score of 22-16 in OT. The Jets are 4-5 and the Bills are 5-5 and there are plenty of implications on the line for each team. Note though that the Bills have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Bills have lost two in a row after last week's 24-22 setback to the Broncos, and they've seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that Buffalo has also seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. We're expecting a battle here, but one that flies OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch!

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10* UNDER Bengals/Ravens (TOTAL BLOWOUT)

The Bengals are 5-4 and the Ravens are 7-3. Cincinnati got caught looking ahead to this one in last week's 30-27 home loss to Houston as a 5.5-point favorite, snapping a four-game win streak. Baltimore's four-game win streak was also snapped in last week's 33-31 home loss to Cleveland as a six-point favorite. The Bengals play with revenge after a 27-24 loss at home to Baltimore, and note that Cinncy has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent. Expect the short week to also help in contributing to a lower-scoring defensive battle; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Jets/Raiders (AFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but we're expecting a much faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring outcome than what this O/U line is suggesting. This is a big game for both teams and we expect this to translate into offensive production on the field of play. The Jets had won three straight before last week's 27-6 setback at home to the Chargers, but note that NY has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last nine off a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog in its previous outing. Las Vegas snapped a two-game slide with a 30-6 win over New York, and we think it can match that offensive out put this week as well. These teams haven't played since 2020, and in that game they combined 59 points. We see a similar final combined score here this time around as well, as the overall situation combined with the numbers/trends do indeed point to the "over" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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8* OVER Packers/Steelers (SUPER TOTAL)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open offensive affair here in this non-conference contest here in Pittsburgh in our opinion. Green Bay is 3-5, while Pittsburgh is 5-3. The Packers are off the much-needed 20-3 home win over the Rams and they've now seen the total go "under" in four straight. Despite dominating defensively last week, note that Green Bay has still seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Pittsburgh wasn't supposed to be this good this year, but it's now won three of its last four, including a 20-16 home victory over Tennessee last time out. Pittsburgh has now seen the total go "under" in six straight, but note that despite its last game staying below the posted number, Pittsburgh has still seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. This is a big game for each side, and we're expecting a much faster-paced affair, and ultimately higher-scoring outcome than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Raiders/Lions (ASSASSIN)

We're expecting a very tight and lower-scoring defensive battle here. Detroit for the most part has looked great this year, but its two losses were really suspect. Clearly the Lions can't be feeling great about their 38-6 loss at Baltimore last weekend, but they ran into the league's No. 1 defense on the road and just weren't able to get anything going. Regardless, now back at home I'm expecting Detroit and Las Vegas to play to more of a "war of attrition" here. The Raiders are off the 30-12 loss at Chicago and we expect them to have difficulty moving the ball on the road consistently once again; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* OVER Chiefs/Broncos (AFC WEST TOY)

Here is a great situational play on the total. These teams just played two weeks ago and the Chiefs pulled away for the awkward 19-8 victory as 10.5-point favorites. KC has won six straight, but it's also seen the total go "under" the number in six straight. And why is that important?! Because note that KC has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. And note that Denver has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Denver comes in off a season-saving 19-17 win over Green Bay here last weekend and if it can somehow pull off an upset here, it'll still be in contention before heading into its bye week. The overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U ATS stats does indeed make the "over" the correct call in this one and qualifies as our one and only 10* AFC WEST TOY!

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10* Giants/Bills OVER (NON-CONF TOY)

The Bills are now 3-2 after falling 25-20 to Jacksonville in London last week. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go "over" the number in four of its last five after a SU/ATS loss as a favorite. The Giants are just 1-4, and another loss here will essentially be the final nail in the coffin for their 2023/24 campaign. Note that NY though has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Both teams are coming off losses, and each can't wait for the other to make the first mistake. With each side pushing the pace throughout like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Packers/Raiders (BLOODBATH)

We're expecting a really defensive affair here. The Packers looked horrible in their loss to the Lions last week, especially offensively getting outgained 401-230. QB Jordan Love is struggling, ranked 34th in the league in completion percentage. The run game is still suffering without Aaron Jones, who may be back, but regardless, Green Bay will have to establish the run throughout here to alleviate the pressure off its struggling young pivot. Las Vegas should have Jimmy G back under center, but he'll be more of a "game manager" here. Look for Josh Jacobs to finally get involved more for LV as well this week; when you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high, so the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Hawks/Giants (TOW)

This total has been bet up since the opening number, and we now feel its too high. We liked the opening number as well to go under the number. Either way, we're not expecting a shootout here, but instead we expect this game to be won in the trenches, and with field position, similar to what we saw on Sunday night between the Chiefs and Jets. Seattle is unbelievably 5-0 in this building, but after playing to B2B "overs," and with their bye week up next, we're expecting the Hawks to have their hands full here with this hungry home side looking to avoid falling to 1-3. With each team committed to establishing the run like we predict, we're indeed expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle here on Monday night; the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Rams/Bengals (BLOCKBUSTER)

Two teams in desperate need of a win collide here on Monday night. Non-conference games are usually less intense defensively, but we're not expecting that to be the case here tonight though, as Cincinnati will be risking life and limb to not only win this game (as the Bengals enter 0-2), but to also control the pace throughout. With each side committed to establshing the run while on offense like we envision, all signs point to this one staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done!

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10* OVER Giants/49ers (TOW)

New York was shutout in Week 1 at home by the Cowboys, and then it went into its Week 2 matchup in Arizona down 28-0. The Giants then made the "mother of all half time adjustments" and came out and won the game by a score of 31-28. Working on a short week, and catching a contented 49ers team returning home from a 2-0 road start, we expect the visiting side to put some points on the board and keep that offensive momentum rolling here in San Francisco. This is a huge spread for San Fran to cover, but we're also note sure if NY will in fact be able to keep pace down the stretch. Either way, we do think NY will points on the board as it tries to keep pace with the red hot home side. This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Jags (AFC NON-DIV TOW)

The Chiefs looked shaky in Week 1 without Jason Kelce, and whether he's in the line-up or not, we feel KC will once again have difficulties moving the ball. Trevor Lawrence and company will look to win this game in the trenches and with field position. Weather could be an issue here as well, with Hurricane Lee ripping off the coast right now. We see this one being a really gritty, lower-scoring battle that indeed stays well "under" the number once it's all said and done.

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10* OVER Vikes/Eagles.

The bottom line here is that Mac Jones threw for 315 yards on the Eagles' secondary, and we just feel that Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will also be able to take advantage here. Clearly the Eagles won't be rolling over here after that somewhat uninspiring performance at New England, which saw them go up early, and then for some reason take the foot off the gas. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to this game?! Either way, we can expect Jalen Hurts and company to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in their home opener. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

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10* UNDER Bills/Jets (ASSASSIN)

It's going to take some time for Aaron Rodgers to develop chemistry with his new team. They'll be looking to run the ball heavily to open things up, to alleviate as much pressure off him as possible. The Jets will be better served keeping Josh Allen off the field of play as much as possible anyways. New York actually had one of the best defenses in the league last year, allowing the fourth least amount of PPG. THe last thing NY wants to do is turn this into a "shootout;" this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Chiefs/Eagles (TOM)

I think this Philadelphia defensive line has a chance to go down as one of the best in history. Especially if the Eagles win this game. The first thing you think about when you think about these two teams is the two men under center. Most would think that with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts as QB's, that we'd be in store for a high-scoring "shootout," but that's simply not going to be the case in my opinion. Both Hurts and Mahomes have been injured in the Playoffs. They do get two weeks off to prepare, but I believe these underrated defenses will benefit the most with the extra time. Each offense will be committed to the run, as it'll be the only way to keep these aggressive pass rushing units honest. Another big factor here sees two of the league's best "rushing QB's" going head-to-head. When you add it all up, I say this O/U line is a few points higher than it should be; the play is indeed on the "under!"

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10* UNDER Bengals/Chiefs (CONF. CHAMP TOY)

The first thing you think about when you think about these two teams are the two men under center. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes are two of the most electrifying QB's in the league right now. Both of these teams are among the league leaders on offense, but in my opinion, I expect more of a defensive affair in this one. The injury to Mahomes has like 80% of the early public money on the Bengals. I'm staying away from choosing a side in this one, but I think the last thing that KC can afford to do now is turn this into a "shootout" with Burrow and the Bengals. Look for the experienced Mahomes to control his offense with short crossing routes and over the top dumps. Both of these defenses are fantastic as well, and are just overshadowed by these two polarizing pivots. Look for this hard-fought game to result in a lower-scoring "under!"

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10* UNDER Cowboys/49ers (TOTAL ASSASSIN)

Two really good teams here. The first thing you think about when you think about either is the offense though. Brock Purdy and the weapons around him or impressive, but it was the 49ers' defense which sustained the team early and which is the unsung here of this team. The same can be said about Dak Prescott and his offense. However, it's been the Dallas defense which has been consistently under-rated this season. This is going to be a great game, but one that's decided by field position, by which team protects the ball, and by the men in the "trenches" on both sides of the field; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER Jags/Chiefs (DIVISIONAL TOY)

I had the Jaguars last weekend. Do I feel "lucky?!" Of course I do! That said, I don't see lightning "striking twice" for Jacksonville this weekend. Kansas City is 7-1 at home and it scores 29.2 PPG, which is ranked No. 1. I think though that the Chiefs defense is vastly underrated. Especially in the playoffs, and especially at home. I have been a big fan of what Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson have done this year, but I think the "fairy tale" ends this week. I say a big letdown is in order here. Look for the Chiefs to "control" this game and to cruise to a lower-scoring victory; the play is the "under!"

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10* UNDER (TOTAL ASSASSIN)

With Skylar Thompson "managing" this game for the Ravens, Baltimore will look to limit his chances to make mistakes. That means adopting a run first attack while on offense. It also means a lot of over the top passes in short yardage situations. The key for the Ravens success today will be in if they can keep the ball out of Joe Burrows hands. The Bengals themselves have an underrated run game, and defense. This total opened at 43.5 and it's since dropped. I'm following that line movement here though, as I'm expecting a very low-scoring, tight defensive battle; the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Hawks/49ers (WILDCARD TOY)

These teams played twice in the regular season, and San Francisco won each time. They won 27-7 in Week 2, and then 2l-13 in Week 15. Both games went "under" the number, but I'm anticipating some offense here finally. Seattle won its final two games of the regular season. If the Hawks are going to win this game, it's going to be on the arm of Gino Smith, who set the Hawks regular season record for most yards completed. He has plenty of weapons to throw too. The 49ers closed the season with eight straight wins. Their offense averages 26.5 PPG, which ranks sixth overall. While the first two games during the regular season went "under" the number, expect this faster-paced playoff affair to fly "over the posted total sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" 

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This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOM on the OVER Pitt/Bal.

I'm expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Steelers are rolling, as they've won two straight and three of their last four. They're going to have their hands full here though with a Ravens side that plays with revenge after losing 16-14 at Pittsburgh in December (note that Baltimore though has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 14 or less points in.) Baltimore is off a 17-9 win over ATL last week and it's won 3 of its last 4 despite the QB issues with LaMar Jackson. I think the home side opens up the playbook this weekend for Tyler Huntley now. Look for this total sneak "over the number once the final whistle sounds!

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10* UNDER Chargers/Colts

Everything points to a lower-scoring "under" in this one in my opinion. The first thing that strikes me here is that the Colts simply have nothing to play for anymore. They're missing their starting QB, their starting RB and they're coming off the worst loss in the history of the league. The Chargers on the other hand have everything to play for. They've won two straight and can clinch a playoff spot with bigger aspirations moving forward with a victory. That said, I can't see LA keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. Frankly, it's not going to have to. Look for LA's underrated defense to dictate the second half and expect this total to stay well "under" this posted number!

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10* UNDER Eagles/Boys (NFC EAST TOM)

The Eagles are 13-1, but QB Jalen Hurts is hurt and won't be playing, and because of that, I'm expecting Philly to come out today with an alternate game-plan. Dallas is off a tough OT loss to Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew is now the QB for Philadelphia and while I do think he has talent, he'll simply be a game-manager today for sure. Look for the Eagles' talented defense, which ranks sixth in allowing only 19.1 PPG. Dak Prescott had 256 yards and three TD's for Dallas last week, but it wasn't enough to beat a red hot Trevor Lawrence. This one is going to be decided by field position and special teams; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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8* OVER Saints/Browns (SPECIAL)

The Browns aren't mathematically eliminated from Playoff contention, but they will be if they lose this game. Same thing for New Orleans, who will have to win out and get some outside help to qualify. Both Andy Dalton and Taysom Hill threw a TD in New Orleans' win over Atlanta last weekend. The run defense for the Saints was smashed for 231 yards though, which doesn't bode well here facing Browns' star RB Nick Chubb. Last week Cleveland QB DeShaun Watson had a TD and 161 yards through the air, and I believe he'll have an even more efficient outing this evening. Off wins, and needing a victory to stay alive, look for these desperate teams to open up the playbook and expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Rams/Packers (NFC TOM)

The Rams are 4-9 after somehow managing a 17-16 win at home over Las Vegas last weekend. Despite that though, they only average 16.8 PPG. Green Bay got back in the win column as well last week with a 28-19 road win at Chicago. The Packers have now seen the total go "over" the number in four straight. Green Bay though is also in the bottom third offensively, averaging only 20.2 PPG, ranked 22nd. The Packers haven't been blowing teams away when they win, it's been more of a defensive affair. The Packers have had to play from behind a lot, but I don't think that'll be the case today, as I expect the Rams to take an overall step back here on the road and in these wintery conditions; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

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10* OVER Bengals/Bucs (NON-CONF TOM)

The Bengals are 9-4. I think Joe Burrow will want to put on a show here and run up the score against Brady. That said, after last week's humbling 35-7 loss at San Francisco, I think Brady will bounce back here at home and put some points on the board. From a situational stand point, it sets up well as a more wide open affair, rathter than a crushing defensive one between these non-conference opponents. The Bengals have been hit or miss defensively this season. They have been relying on Burrow and the offense to set the tone, entering averaging 25.8 PPG, ranked sixth. Finally, note that Tampa has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 9 or less points in; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

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8* OVER Pats/Raiders (BLOWOUT)

It's essentially do or die for both teams. New England is going for its fifth win in its last seven games. The Pats beat Arizona 27-13 last week, while the Raiders fell 17-16 to the Rams. The Pats are a great defensive team, but I think they'll have their hands full with veteran Derek Carr. The Raiders though are allowing 24.1 PPG, so expect Pats' QB Mac Jones to have a big game as well here. I just expedct a very efficient game from each offense, and that's going to see this total eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch; this number is low, the play is the "over!"

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8* UNDER Boys/Jags (SPECIAL)

Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end this evening. The Cowboys are now 10-3 after last week's 27-23 win over Houston. They didn't even come close to covering the large 17-point spread. Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in three straight now, which is significant to note as the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in six of their last eight after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Jacksonville is 5-8. It's been playing much better behind the great play of QB Trevor Lawrence. The Jags are coming off a 36-22 road win at Tennessee. This Cowboys defense is legit though and I think the home side will have a much more difficult time moving the ball this afternoon; look for this total to stay well "under" the posted number!

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8* UNDER Colts/Vikes (SUPER TOTAL)

A common sense play here. The Colts are only averaging 16.1 PPG this year. They're coming off their bye week, but their strong point has been their defense. It's only allowing 16.1 PPG. Matt Ryan is 29th in the league with an 84.0 passer rating. The Vikes have been mediocre of late. They're just 2-2 in their last four. The Vikes' defense catches a break today. Justin Jefferson though is facing a Top 5 passing defense in the Colts today, so that means that Dalvin Cook will by leaned upon by the Vikes. I expect a whole lot of running from each side today; this number is high, the play is the under!

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10* UNDER Vikes/Lions (NFC NORTH TOY)

For a number of different reasons, I expect this total to stay "under" the posted number. The Vikes are 10-2, but they're slight underdogs here on the road vs. the 5-7 Lions. Detroit has inexplicably won four of its last five, but after last week's big 40-14 home victory over Jacksonville, I think the Lions will have a much harder time moving the ball vs. their divional opponent today. The first matchup of the season resulted in a 28-24 win for the Vikes, and the total went "over" the number of 51.5 in that one. But I think the rematch, considering the implications, will be a much more methodical, slower-paced defensive affair where field position becomes paramount. Look for Minnesota to pound the football via the run game while on offense, while also delivering a lot of pressure on the defensive side; this number is a little high, the play is the "under!"

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Buffalo/Patriots OVER (AFC EAST TOTAL OF MONTH)

It's clearly a big game for both teams, but more so for New England. The Patriots are 6-5 after last week's 33-26 loss at Minnesota on Thanksgiving Day. These teams play again in the very final game of the year. The Patriots have struggled with offensive consistency, but they're going to have to be the aggressor today. The Bills are coming off back-to-back road victories in Detroit, coming from behind to knock off the Lions on Thanksgiving Day for their second straight win on the same field (snow game the previous outing.) The Bills are now having to play a third-straight game on the road as a favorite. It's difficult to win in the NFL. It's even more difficult to win on the road in the NFL as a favorite week after week. I just see this being an offensive battle. Both teams moved the ball last week and I expect the same here; the play is the over!

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10* OVER Steelers/Colts (ASSASSIN)

Neither team has officially been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but each is on the ropes. Each has struggled offensively, and done decently on the defensive side. That's why we have such a low total here again tonight on Prime Time. But I just can't see either of these teams sitting back and playing conservatively this evening. They need a win. They need a spark. And I expect this to translate into a very wide-open contest between these non-conference opponents. With their backs against the proverbial wall this evening, expect a hard-fought competitive affair, but one the flied well "over" this low number!

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10* OVER (GRAND-DADDY)

For a number of different reasons I am expecting this total to eclipse this lower numer as the game comes down the stretch. Yes, there's no question that both the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers come into this contest with more questions than answers. Especially on the offensive end. It would be really easy to point at these team's offensive and defensive numbers and just assume that this will be a lower-scoring game, but each team will be opening up the playbook as they desperately seek a spark and a victory. The Panthers have a new QB under center this week. The Broncos keep trying to figure new things out on offense. I say the pendulum finally swings the other way as far as the total is concerned for these two teams; this number is low, the play is the over!

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10* OVER Pats/Vikes (TOP TOTAL)

Here are two teams that I think will go toe to toe on the national stage, and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of the night, I'm expecting this total to eclipse what I believe to be a very low number. The Patriots have won three straight and they've allowed just six points total over their last two. That was against the Colts and Jets though, two QB's that both really struggled. I like Cousins here at home to boune back after the Vikes' 40-3 home loss to the Cowboys (note though that Minnesota has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to six or less points in.) Minnesota will absolutely be opening up the playbook on Thanksgiving, and I expect this more wide-open affair to produce a higher-scoring result; the play is the over!

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10* 49ers/Cardinals UNDER (ASSASSIN)

Here's a game being played in Mexico City. The 49ers are a big favorite here, but it's not because of QB Jimmy Garopolo. The 49ers have a great defense and run game, and I expect to see a heavy dose of that from the 49ers this evening as they try to contain Kyler Murray and turn this Cards' offense one-dimensional. Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but I say the value has now swung the other way. The NFC West is wide open. This is in fact a really important game on many levels. San Fran has also seen the total go under in six of its last seven after a SU win, while Arizona has interestingly seen the total go under the number in nine of its last ten Monday Night contests. These QB's are not dynamic. They're mediocre. Look for special teams and field position to prove to be critical for the winner of this contest; this number is high, the play is the under!

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10* OVER Chiefs/Chargers.

For a number of different reasons, I'm expecting a wide-open "shootout," instead of a lower-scoring defensive "battle." Kansas City is 7-2 and LA is 5-4. The Chiefs are off a 27-17 win over Jacksonville at home last weekend. KC has seen the total go "under" the number in two straight, but it's still the highest scoring team in the league in averaging 30 PPG. This is a rematch, as KC won the first game at home between the division rivals by a score of 27-24 as a four-point favorite. That one actually went "under" the number of 54 set in that contest. Tonight's total is significantly lower, but now it's a bit too low in my opinion. My UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR came last weekend in the Chargers 22-16 loss/cover against the 49ers as 6.5-point underdogs. LA is still second in the division and it's seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU road loss against an opponent. The national stage is set for a "shootout," not a defensive battle; the play is the "over!"

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10* under Cowboys/Vikings (ASSASSIN)

This is an interesting game. The Cowboys are favored for a second straight week as the visiting side. Last week Dallas fell 31-28 in OT at Green Bay as a four-point favorite. Suspect play calling down the stretch cost the Cowboys the victory. Now they head to Minnesota as a slight 1.5-point favorite to face an 8-1 Vikings team that comes home after an emotional 33-30 OT win at Buffalo as a 6.5-point underdog. We saw some high-scoring games last weekend, but I'm anticpating a much more defensive affair this time around in Minnesota, with each side committed to establishing the run while on offense; it's a great situational play on the "under!"

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10* UNDER Washington/Philly (BLOOD-BATH)

The Eagles are 8-0 and the last thing they'll want to do is to lose focus in this home divisional contest. Divisional contests are always the most important, and they're almost always more important to the home side. The Eagles are 5-3 ATS this year. They're averaging 28.1 PPG, which ranks second overall. They've had a week off since a trap-avoiding 29-17 win at Houston two weeks ago. The Commanders on the other hand are 4-5 and they're coming off a heart-breaking 20-17 loss at home to Minnesota last weekend. Washington averages 17.7 PPG, which ranks 27th. The road ahead has become a favorable one for the Eagles. There won't be too many though where they're favored by this much. Philadelphia doesn't need to run up the score here to win this game. I can't see the Commanders mustering up much offense here, but I'm still nervous about laying a double-digit spread as well. That makes the "under" the correct call in this one!

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10* Broncos/Titans OVER (NON-CONF TOM)

Denver has struggled with offensive consistency all year, but I still think this total is much too low. The Broncos are only averaging 15.1 PPG, but they're off a crucial 21-17 win over the Jaguars in England two weeks ago and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas offensively here against the Titans. The Titans won't be lacking for motivation here either after their 20-17 OT loss at Kansasa City last weekend. Despite only averaging 18.6 PPG this year, note that Tennessee has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. The overall situation, combined with the above stats/trends/numbers, all points to the "over" as the correct call in this one!

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10* OVER Cowboys/Eagles (NFC EAST TOY)

Scoring is down so far in NFL Prime Time games. Last Sunday's 19-17 win for Baltimore over Cincinnati was no exception. But I expect this lop-sided trend to start correcting itself finally here in Week 6. The Eagles are off a tight, but low-scoring 20-17 win over Arizona, while Dallas pulled away for the 22-10 win over the defending champs on their own field. Tony Pollard had a 57 yard TD run and Cooper Rush looked "OK" with 102 yards in the Cowboys' win. The Dallas defense looked good, but that was against a pathetic Rams offense, which was missing three starters on the offensive line. Now they have to travel on the road again here and I think the unit will struggle to contain this confident Eagles team. Jalen Hurts had difficulty moving the ball on the road, but I think he'll have a much easier time at home in this important divisional contest. Look for a wide-open offensive affair this weekend in Philadelphia, one that flies well "over" the posted number!

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10* OVER (NON DIV TOY)

Yes, these two teams have been terrible. Yes, there have been plenty of "unders" in Prime Time NFL games this year. But I believe that tonight's total is now a bit TOO low. These teams, and these two starting quarterbacks, are dying for a breakout performance. It would be easy to look at their past stats and base our prediction on tonight's game upon those results, but the situation here has shifted the value to the higher number in my opinion. The Bears struggle against good passing teams, and Carson Wentz and the Commanders will be able to move the ball. With the home side having keep pace, we can expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* Raiders/Chiefs OVER (ASSASSIN).

We've had a lot of low-scoring "PRIME TIME" NFL games to open up the season so far, but I'm expecting that trend to end this evening. The Raiders are 1-3 and another loss here to a division rival would essentially be the nail in the coffin for Derek Carr and company. Las Vegas comes in with momentum though as it pulled away for the 32-23 win over Denver last weekend. Overall the Raiders are averaging 24 PPG. The Chiefs are off the 41-31 win over Tampa and average 32.2 PPG. That's second in the league. Neither team has looked great defensively. Look for Carr and Patrick Mahomes to take center stage here in what I expect will be a wide-open and classic "duel" here between these two gun-slingers. All signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!"

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10* OVER Bengals/Ravens (AFC NORTH TOY)

Neither of these divisional foes has been in many high-scoring games this year, but I say that changes here and now on Sunday night in Baltimore. In fact, the 2-2 Bengals have seen the total go "under" in all four of their games this season, while the 2-2 Ravens have seen the total go "under" two of their four games, including in its 23-20 loss here at home to Buffalo last week. These are two teams in dire need of a win and I expect the sense of urgency that each will be playing with today, to translate into offensive production on the field finally. The Bengals come in with momentum after wins over the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens are off the heartbreaking loss to Buffalo. This is a great quarterback matchup and I expect Joe Burrow and LaMar Jackson to domiante the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. I know that we've seen a lot of lower-scoring games in the prime-tiome football spots, but this one screams "shootout" in my opinion; the play is the over!

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10* UNDER Lions/Pats (NON-CONF TOY)

These teams I think surprisingly have played to quite a few higher-scoring "overs" to open the season, but I believe everything points to this non-conference matchup being a very defensive affair. Both teams are in dire need of a victory at 1-3. Detroit is averaging 35 PPG, but allowing 35.3. I don't think that the Lions are as good offensively as their early numbers are showing, and I don't think they're nearly as poor defensively either. They've been involved in some wild games to open the season, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here vs. this talented Patriots defense. And conversely, the Lions' defense catches a break here facing this vanilla New England offense which will likely be without its starting QB again this week due to an ankle injury. Whoever is under cener for the Pats, I'm expecting a lot of running from Damien Harris, who has 246 rushing yards and three TD's for the Pats. Look for this important non-conference matchup to be a very tight, and ulimtately lower-scoring battle; the play is the under!

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10* OVER (NFC WEST TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games this year, but I expect this important early divisional matchup to have some offensive fireworks. LA is 2-1 and it's seen the total go "under" in two of three so far, including in last week's 20-12 victory at Arizona. San Francisco is 1-2 and it's seen the total go "under" in all three of its games, including in last week's 11-10 loss to the Broncos (note though that SF has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.) The 49ers can't afford another loss here. Especially to the Rams and especially at home. Both teams have struggled to find consistency in the early going, but here's an opportunity to get back on track. Jimmy Garoppolo returned to action in last week's loss and had 211 passing yards, one TD and one INT for the 49ers. I expect him to be given the "green light" here today. Matt Stafford has so far been quiet for his standards for the Rams to open the season. Overall the Rams are averaging 234 yards per game through the air. But I'm expecting a very competitive, wide open battle, and because of that, we can look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* NFC TOM ON DALLAS/TB OVER

If you like points, Sunday night should be your kind of game. Both these offenses are going to pile up the points this year. Cowboys don't get the love but they will be among the most explosive teams in the league. They are an elite offense with Prescott. Bucs have finished in top 3 in points in 3 consecutive seasons. Over is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games in September. Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last five in September. Go with the Over!

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10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

This is a very interesting matchup. The first thing that comes to mind when you think of these two teams are their dynamic men under center. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are both coming off big years, but each will need his respective "run game" to be established to find success today. The winner of this contest is going to win the game in the trenches. Ball control is going to be paramount. As will field position. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "under" in 7 of its last 8 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed 40 or more points in. The writing is on the wall. This is going to be a nail-biter, but one that falls well "under" the number!

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10* UNDER (DIV TOY)

San Francisco has advanced to this point behind its relentless defensive attack and impressive run. The last thing that Jimmy Garoppolo can do here is to try and match pace with Aaron Rodgers. San Fran's plan while on offense, will be to hold onto that ball as long as possible, to keep Rodgers off the field of play. If Green Bay is going to finally get over the hump and return to the Super Bowl this season, clearly its defense will have to play a key part. The temperatures are expected to be near 0 and there could be winds of up to 20 mile per hour. Look for this cold weather and the rest of the factors listed above to lead to a solid "under" in this one!

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10* UNDER (WC TOTAL TOY)

If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters for each side. You know the story lines. Even the most casual NFL fan knows the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams. If you want an in-depth analysis on offensive and defensive stats for each team and individual player breakdowns, then I'd suggest just going over to ESPN. That's what they do best. Break down games and give out stats. I'm here to tell you why this game is going "under" the number, and not "over." Both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford will need their respective run games to be established throughout this contest to have any success themselves. This game is going to be won and lost in the trenches. Field position and ball control will be paramount. Look for this clock to get eaten quickly and for this total to stay well under what I believe to be a sky-high total attached to this one!

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8* OVER (SPECIAL)

Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes would have been watching the Patriots and Bills game last night. Mahomes would have seen what Bills' QB Josh Allen did, by throwing for 308 yards and five TD's. And so we can absolutely bet that Mahomes will be to even better that performance here. KC has seen AT LEAST 46 points scored in its last 5 games and it's averaging a whopping 35.4 points per game over that stetch. So, we know that the Chiefs can score today at home, but does Ben Roethlisber have anything left in the tank? If this were being played in Pittsburgh, I'd likely lean to the "under," but the visiting side is going to be forced to open up the playbook tonight. The weather is going to cooperate tonight as well. All of the listed reasons above make the "over" the correct call here!

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UNDER (8*)

Both teams have clinched a spot. Dallas is the second-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 402.8 yards of offense per game, but clearly, the last thing that the visiting side will do today is to put QB Dak Prescott too much into "harms way." This one means more to Dallas, as a win will improve its positioning, but a win or a loss here will mean nothing to Philadelphia. To make matters worse for the Eagles, over 15 starters are out because of covid-19 protocols. This one is going to be decided in the trenches. This one has more the feel of a "chess match," where field position is paramount. I don't predict much scoring in this one, so the pick is on the under!

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8* NON-CONF. TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the under Rams/Ravens.

The Rams are 11-4. They're off a 30-23 win at Minnesota last weekend. The Rams struggled in the second half though and QB Matt Stafford threw three picks. Sony Michel stepped up with 131 rushing yards and a TD. Matt Gay made three field goals. On the other side of the field, the Ravens are now 8-7 after getting destroyed 41-21 against the Bengals. LaMar Jackson remains questionable for this game for the Ravens, meaning backup Tyler Huntley, who is off the COVID list now, will likely get the start. Stafford is suddenly struggling. The Ravens' QB issue is up in the air right now. This is a game that's going to be decided by whichever team can establish its run game, and in the trenches. This total is much too high!

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This is a 10* on OVER

So once again, we’re going with the Over in a Bengals game. Last week was a little scary when it was announced Baltimore was being forced to turn to Josh Johnson, a little-known third stringer. But the Ravens’ QB situation ended up being a non-factor as the Bengals exploded for 31 points before halftime and Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns. Incredibly, the Over was a winner going into halftime with the score 31-14. Now, to expect Cincinnati to repeat last week’s offensive effort seems optimistic. But thankfully, we’ve got Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on the other sideline. The Chiefs have scored 48, 34 and 36 points the last three weeks and are really humming along with eight straight victories. Their defense has been very impressive during the win streak, holding seven opponents to 17 points or fewer. But outside of the Cowboys and Chargers, the latter of which scored 28 against the Chiefs, none of the offenses faced were as good as Cincinnati’s. The Bengals are 0-2 SU/ATS off their first two 40+ point efforts this season, however, let it be known those two games also both went Over. There were 65 and 63 total points scored. Six of the Bengals’ last nine games have gone Over. Only one of those last nine games, a 32-13 win over Las Vegas, had fewer than 49 total points scored. The Over is 5-0 the last five times the Bengals have been off an ATS win. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

UPDATE: When we made this play, we obviously did not expect Johnson to be the QB for the Ravens. But this is an opportunity of a lifetime for the veteran. He's gotten games in this year and has a great offense around him. Call us crazy but you should still expect Baltimore to put points on the board... 

The Ravens may have failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point try last week. But they definitely didn’t have any issue putting up points. This despite backup Tyler Huntley playing quarterback. Huntley had 215 yards passing and 73 yards rushing in the 31-30 loss against the Packers. So we’re pretty confident that Baltimore is going to score plenty of points on Sunday, no matter if it’s Huntley or Lamar Jackson at QB. Jackson had never missed a game before last week. This is a huge game in the AFC North vs. Cincinnati. The Bengals beat the Ravens 41-17 earlier in the year. The teams enter this rematch tied at 8-6. Cincy won last week in Denver, 15-10. Had they lost, both they and the Ravens would be on a three-game skid. The Bengals average 26.4 points/game, so they should not have problems scoring. We know that they did have problems against the Broncos. However, last week marked only the third game in 2021 that Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. Defensively, the Bengals have allowed 41 points twice in the last four home games. Those last four home games have all seen at least 49 total points scored. Bengals’ home games average 51.9 points/game. Huntley proved himself to us last week, so we’re satisfied no matter if it’s him or Jackson starting this week. The Over is 5-1 the previous six times Baltimore has been off a straight-up loss. The Over has cashed the last four times Cincinnati has been off a win. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis is going to be playing without three of its five starting offensive linemen on Christmas. But considering that they scored 27 points last week with Carson Wentz completing only five passes for 57 yards, we believe the Colts can still score a reasonable number of points in this game. Arizona has given up 30 points in each of its last two games. The Colts come in putting an average of 28 points/game on the board. Though Wentz struggled in the last game (still beat the Patriots) and the offensive line is banged up, handing the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor seems easy enough. Taylor leads the league - by a wide margin - with over 1500 yards rushing. He had 170 last week. Stopping the Cardinals’ offense may prove to be difficult for the Colts, however. Despite playing without WR Hopkins, Kyler Murray still threw for 257 yards last week in what ended up being an embarrassing loss to Detroit. The Indianapolis’ defense is not particularly great against the run or pass, so the Cardinals offense should have success. Each of the last five times the Colts have been underdogs, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER

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This is a 8* on OVER

The Cowboys and Giants renew acquaintances in Week 15. The Cowboys lead the NFC East by three games with a 9-4 record. After taking a 24-0 lead into halftime last week vs. Washington, things did get a bit too close for comfort when the Football Team stormed back to get within seven. But Dallas did win the game, 27-20. Another win here would move Dallas very close to wrapping up a division title. In recent years, the Giants have been rather accommodating. Including a 44-20 win on Oct 10, the Cowboys have taken eight of the last nine meetings from the Giants. The incarnation of the G-men that they will face on Sunday has Mike Glennon playing QB. The Giants lost 37-21 last week to the Chargers to fall to 4-9. Despite Glennon playing QB for the Giants and the Cowboys’ being banged up at running back, we like this game to go Over, just as the last meeting did. Dallas is second in the league in scoring at 29.2 points/game. We had the Over in last week’s game vs. Washington and were denied a win by a missed extra point. We look for this game to make it Over, as similar to last week, the Cowboys should race out to a big lead and then start playing lax defense. The Over is 17-8 in the previous 25 Cowboys-Giants matchups, including 4-1 the previous five. Play on OVER

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