PAGE_HEADER

This is a 10* on OVER

Washington has gotten back into the NFC East race by winning four straight games. They are also 4-0 ATS during that time as they’ve been the underdog in all four wins. So this is quite the run that the Football Team is on right now. On Sunday, they can further narrow the division lead as first place Dallas comes to town. The Cowboys, coming off back to back Thursday games, are 8-4 and still have a two-game lead over Washington. Last week saw Dallas go to New Orleans and win 27-17 as a 6.5 point favorite. That came on the heels of a shocking overtime loss on Thanksgiving to the Raiders. The final score of that Thanksgiving Day loss was 36-33. We expect this one to be high scoring as well. The Cowboys offense is finally healthy. Pay close attention to the status of RB Pollard, who missed practice on Wednesday, but even if he can’t go the team still has Ezekiel Elliott to hand the ball off to. Washington’s last two games both ended up as 17-15 finals, but they moved the ball more than you might think. The Over has hit 9 of the previous 11 times these teams have met. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Flexed into the Sunday night position, the Chiefs host the Broncos this week. Kansas City is coming off a bye. Coach Andy Reid is usually deadly in this situation, going 14-8 ATS, but that includes 1-3 the last four years. The Chiefs were playing well going into the bye, winning four straight with the defense surprisingly leading the way by allowing just 11.75 points/game. They are facing a Denver team that has seen the Under hit in 9 of 11 games this year. The O/U has come down for this game, but we’re going with the Over as KC scored 41 in its last appearance on “Sunday Night Football.” Denver put up 28 last week in a surprising win over the Chargers. That win puts the Broncos one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and tied with the Chargers and Raiders. It was the second time in three weeks that Denver scored 28 or more. While it looks like most are expecting a relatively low-scoring affair, we’re going the other way. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the UNDER

The 49ers have not only won three straight, but also four of five SU and ATS. In Week 12, they held off the Vikings for a 34-26 win and covered the four-point spot. This run has gotten the Niners back into playoff contention as they are now 6-5 on the season. The Seahawks are headed in the opposite direction. Monday’s 17-15 loss in Washington was Seattle’s third straight setback, leaving them at 3-8 overall. The Under has hit in five straight Seahawks’ games and we think it will be six straight after this NFC West clash. Since Russell Wilson returned, the Seattle offense has scored a total of 26 points in three losses. They had only 10 first downs and five straight three-and-outs on MNF.  But the defense hasn’t been all that bad, giving up an average of only 15.4 points during the five-game Under run. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in three straight games, but the Seahawks haven’t allowed that many since Week 3. The Under is 6-0 in Seattle’s last six conference games and 13-2 in Wilson’s previous 15 starts. When these teams played in Week 4, it was a 28-13 game (Seattle’s favor) until a late TD + 2 pt conversion from the Niners. This game should see SF control the clock by running the ball, leading to fewer possessions (for both teams). The Niners will be without WR Samuel. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Two teams in the AFC playoff hunt will meet in Cincinnati this Sunday as the Bengals host the Chargers. Cincy is now 7-4 after blowing out Pittsburgh 41-10 last week. That was right here at home and came on the heels of a 32-13 road win in Vegas. So the Bengals definitely seem to be humming again after head-scratching losses to the Jets and Browns. The Bengals’ last five games have averaged a total of 55.2 points with all but one clearing 50. So that’s why we’ve got a high total here. Another reason is what the Chargers are capable of doing offensively. Two weeks ago, they put over 500 yards of offense in a 41-37 win over the Steelers. Things weren’t as good last week when the Lightning Bolts lost 28-13 at Denver. But that was only the third game all season that LA did not score 20 or more points. In fact, since Week 3, the Chargers have scored 24 or more points in all but two games. Look for Justin Herbert to have a bounce back game on Sunday and the Bengals will put up their usual number of points as well. The Chargers’ defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, has given up an average of 31.3 points the seven games (2nd most in the league during that span) with all seven opponents scoring at least 24. Cincinnati is averaging the second most points in the league (31.3/game) since Week 6. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Dallas was tremendous over the first two months of the season, going 6-1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread. But they definitely gave some back in November, going 1-3 SU and ATS. The Cowboys were losers on Thanksgiving Day, falling 36-33 in overtime to the Raiders. Now they’’ turn around and face another Thanksgiving Day loser, the Saints, in another Thursday game. New Orleans got blasted by Buffalo 31-6 as a seven-point home underdog last week. It was their fourth consecutive loss. Before this current losing streak, you would have had to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time any Saints team lost three in a row. With both teams struggling, we’re not interested in playing either side here. Instead, the Over looks to be where the value is at. The Dallas defense gave up over 500 yards last week, including 366 through the air. Per sources, New Orleans is making a change at QB to Taysom Hill. We like the move. But what Hill can’t fix is a Saints defense that’s allowed 71 points the last two games and an average of 29.6 its last five. The Cowboys offense is likely to see WR CeeDee Lamb return. The impact of not having coach Mike McCarthy on the sidelines should be minimal for the road team. McCarthy is generally regarded as a bottom tier coach. The Over has hit in the Cowboys' last four Thursday games. Play on OVER

This is a 9* on OVER

The Chargers scored 41 points and gained over 500 yards last week. It came down to the final minute, as all Chargers’ games seem to do, but they were a 41-37 winner over Pittsburgh. This just in: QB Justin Herbert is very good. Denver’s defense isn’t as good as you think, which was evident two weeks ago when they gave up 30 points to the Eagles. Meanwhile, look for the Broncos’ offense to move the ball via the running game. The Chargers are last in the league at stopping the run. Denver has two good backs - Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams - who have combined for 4.7 yards per rush and 1,333 scrimmage yards. Each of the Chargers’ last six opponents have scored at least 24 points. Look for this to turn into a pretty high-scoring affair. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Both the Raiders and Cowboys are reeling coming into Thanksgiving Day. The Raiders lost their third straight game on Sunday and are now just 5-5 SU. They’ve scored just 43 points during this losing skid. The last two losses have been blowouts: 41-14 to the Chiefs and 32-13 in Cincinnati. Both of those were home games. The Raiders now leave Sin City to take on a Dallas team that put up a season-low nine points against the Chiefs on Sunday. However, the Cowboys are in a lot better shape than the Raiders are. Dallas still leads the NFC East with a 7-3 record. Considering they average the third most points/game in the NFL (29.3), we’re willing to “write off” what happened in the last game. The last time the Cowboys played at home, they put up 43 points. That was the third time this year they scored 40 or more at home. The Raiders’ defense isn’t good, so we’re expecting another strong effort from Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. But look for Derek Carr and Las Vegas to put up some points as well. They substantially outgained the Bengals offense on a per play basis. Not only is the Over 11-4-1 in the Raiders’ last 16 games as an underdog, but it is 7-2 the last nine times following a straight-up loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

So we do not yet know who will be playing QB for the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Does that matter though? The team has yet to win a game and will be going with either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. Boyle made his first NFL start last week in a 13-10 loss to the Browns. He threw for 77 yards and had two interceptions. Goff’s last eight starts haven’t been much better. One would have to go back to Week 1 to find the last time that the Lions scored more than 19 points. They are 30th in the league in scoring.  Right ahead of them, in 29th, is this year’s Thanksgiving Day opponent. Chicago averages just 16.3 points/game. They will reportedly be starting Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton replaced an injured Justin Fields on Sunday and the Bears wound up with only 13 points and lost to the Ravens. It was the seventh game this year that the Bears scored 20 points or less. There are rumors that head coach Matt Nagy might be fired after this game. That’s inspiring! So let’s summarize. Chicago is starting Andy Dalton with a potentially lame-duck head coach. They are facing a winless team starting either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. We will take the Under.  Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Bucs are thankful to be back home Monday night after losing two in a row on the road. The two losses saw them give up 36 points to the Saints and 29 points to the Washington Football Team. But defense shouldn’t be much of a concern tonight as Brady and the offense are averaging a jaw-dropping 40.0 points/game at home. The last time they played in Tampa, the Bucs scored 35 points in the first half. So we’ll play the Over tonight as the Super Bowl Champs host the 3-6 Giants. New York is off a 23-16 win over Las Vegas and then last week had a bye. So there’s been plenty of time to get the offense ready to put enough points on the board to help send this one Over the total. Giants’ road games have been pretty high scoring this year, averaging 52.1 points/game. They both score and allow more on the road than they do at home. The Over has hit each of the last six times these teams have played. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

Expect the Jets and Dolphins to play a low-scoring affair on Sunday. The Jets are 26th in the league in scoring at 17.9 points/game. They are starting Joe Flacco at quarterback this week. That sounds dire. If you can believe it, the Dolphins actually rank lower in scoring than the Jets. They are scoring just 17.7 points per game. That ranks 28th. So we’ve got two of the bottom seven scoring offenses here. The reason the last six Jets games have all gone Over the total is because their defense is horrible, giving up a league-worst 32.9 points/game. When they face teams like Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cincinnati or New England (their last four opponents), that’s obviously a problem. Miami is unlikely to take advantage of this porous defense though. The Dolphins have scored only 50 points - total - the last three weeks. All three games went Under. On the bright side, the Miami defense has allowed just 19 points in the last two games, including a really impressive effort last Thursday vs. Baltimore. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on OVER

Buffalo is #2 in the league in scoring, averaging 31.1 points/game. They put 45 on the board last week against the worst defensive team in the league, the Jets. They won’t need nearly that much here vs. Indianapolis for the game to go Over the total. That’s because the Colts are top eight in points scored at 26.8 per game. We’re really surprised that this number isn’t higher. Indy had scored 30 or more in four straight games going into last week’s 23-17 win against Jacksonville. Given how these two offenses have consistently put up points, how can you NOT go Over? The Over is 10-1 in the Colts' last 11 games vs. teams that have winning records. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The big story for tonight is that Odell Beckham will be making his Rams’ debut. Beckham arrives in LA at an opportune time - the Rams lost last week to the Titans, 28-16, and then WR Robert Woods went down in practice with a season-ending knee injury. But Beckham may not be the only high-profile debut for the Rams here. On the defensive side, Von Miller could suit up for the first time since the Rams traded for him. Whether or not the former Bronco plays is dependent on the ankle injury that kept him out last week. The Rams are 4-0 on the road this season while the 49ers are 0-4 at home. But the 49ers have won all four meetings the previous two seasons, three of them as underdogs. We like the total tonight. The Rams being held to only 16 points last week (and that was with a late TD) was odd. They are among the highest scoring teams in the NFL at 29.0 points/game. On the road, the scoring average jumps to 32.3 points/game. Stafford is the only QB in the league to have nine games with 250+ yards passing. Since returning, the Niners’ Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 300+ yards in back to back games. With just one win in the last six games, the home team will be desperate here and knows it’s going to take a lot of points to win. The last three 49ers’ games have gone Over the total as either they have scored or allowed 30 points in all of them. San Francisco’s defense is allowing almost 30 PPG at home. Both offenses should bounce back from subpar performances last week. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The Browns got a huge win last week, beating Cincinnati by the score of 41-16. They did get a 99-yard INT return for a touchdown early in the game, which was a big swing. The offense for this team has been really “feast or famine” this season. Three times the Browns have topped 40 points. They also have four games where they scored 17 or less. Three of those came in the three weeks preceding the win over the Bengals. But another interesting thing about Cleveland is that the defense has had three games this year where it allowed 37 or more points. But it also has put together five games where it allowed no more than 16 points. The last three weeks have seen the Browns allow an average of 15 points/game. So which Browns offense - and Browns defense - will show up this week in New England? Well, we don’t like the prospects for the offense. Nick Chubb (COVID) may not be able to play. The Patriots allow only 18.6 points/game at home and last week held the Panthers to six points in Carolina. But the good news for Browns fans is that we’re not sold on rookie QB Mac Jones and the New England offense. Yes, Jones and company have put up some nice numbers in recent weeks. But they did so at the expense of some bad defenses. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Dallas took a chance in resting Dak Prescott last week. It worked out. They went to Minnesota and beat the Vikings 20-16 thanks to a last second TD pass from backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Prescott will play this week against Denver, That means the Cowboys won’t have any problems putting up points against a Denver defense that just had to say goodbye to Von Miller. Dallas is #1 in the league in yards from scrimmage with 454.9 per game. The last eight home games with Prescott as the starter, the Cowboys have scored 35 or more points. Count on them doing most of the scoring here. But Denver will add enough points to ensure we hit this Over. The Cowboys defense is 28th in passing yards allowed, so the Broncos will be able to move the ball if/when they are behind. Play on OVER

This is an 8* on OVER

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is listed as a game time decision for the Sunday nighter against the Vikings. Whether or not he plays, we like this game to go Over the total. Dallas will have plenty of offensive firepower surrounding the quarterback, no matter who ends up starting. If it’s Prescott, then we need not even sell you on an offense that is putting up 34.2 points/game thus far. The Cowboys have scored more than that average in each of their past four games. We think that even if Cooper Rush is called upon, the offense can score enough to help this one get Over the total. Minnesota gave up 28 points the last time we saw them. The Vikings offense has scored 30 or more in three of the last five games. So they too can score. Kirk Cousins had a season-high 373 yards vs. Carolina. The Dallas secondary allows 13 yards per completion. The Over has hit in each of Dallas’ past four games and we’re getting a good number because of the uncertainty surrounding Prescott. The Over is 5-0 for the Vikings the last five seasons off a bye week. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Green Bay has won six in a row, covering the spread every time, with Aaron Rodgers throwing 15 touchdown passes and just one interception. Arizona is 7-0 and the last unbeaten team standing. They have covered the spread each of the last five weeks. So this is poised to be one of the better Thursday night games of the season. However, the Packers do have major concerns at wide receiver due to Adams and Lazard both landing on the IR/COVID-19 list. But Rodgers can still make it work. The defensive side of the ball has also been affected by COVID-19 with coordinator Joe Barry set to miss this game. That could be the bigger problem as Arizona comes in averaging 32.1 points/game, which is fourth most in the league. But the Cardinals’ defense also has concerns. JJ Watt is likely done for the season. Both of these defenses have not exactly been facing some of the elite offenses in this league recently. We look for the two quarterbacks - Rodgers and Kyler Murray - to make sure this game goes Over the total. Green Bay has gone Over each of the last five times it has been an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis put up 31 points last week in a win over Houston. The week before that they put up 25 against Baltimore. The week before that they scored 27 against Miami. So that’s an average of 27.7 points the last three weeks and the offense is averaging 416.7 yards to boot. Carson Wentz is playing well for them. He has already thrown for more than 1500 yards and nine touchdowns against just one interception. Versus Baltimore, Wentz threw for a career-high 402 yards and then he averaged more than 20 yards per completion last week against Houston. So we expect them to put up a solid number of points this week. The Colts would have even more points scored this year if not for some unfortunate red zone inefficiency. As for San Francisco, Jimmy G is back in the starting lineup. The last time he finished a game was also on a Sunday night (vs. Green Bay) and the 49ers scored 28 points. The team is coming off a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for facing the Colts' defense. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

The Patriots are still without a home win this year, but that’s likely to change after today. They host the Jets, a team they’ve already beaten 25-6. But if New England is to pick up that elusive first home victory, expect it to come in low scoring fashion. We are on the Under in this AFC East matchup. The Jets are off a bye and have been an underdog in every game. Rookie QB Wilson threw four picks the first time he faced Belichick’s defense. It was not a pretty sight. Here’s the thing though: the Patriots’ offense gained only 260 yards in that game. In three of the four home games this year, New England has failed to score 20 points. So we’re not counting on them scoring a ton here. Most of those 25 points they scored in the first game with the Jets were off turnovers. For the Jets, QB Wilson hasn’t matured enough where we’d expect him to play that much better in this rematch. But he should limit the turnovers this time. The Jets’ offense hasn’t gained 300 total yards in any game that didn’t go to overtime. That’s pretty sad. The Jets are last in points per game (13.4), 31st in total yards and 31st in rushing. New England only had 14 points with six minutes to go last week and they rank 26th in total yards and 27th in rushing yards. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

A multitude of injuries on the Cleveland side have seen this spread drop like a rock and with it, the total has come down as well. But be mindful of the fact that Denver just put up over 400 yards last week in a loss to the Raiders. They only scored 24 points because they had four turnovers. The Browns defense isn’t very good; it has given up 84 points the last two games. So we expect the Broncos to score a decent amount of points in this Thursday night road tilt. But their own defense has some issues that may not be properly addressed in a short week. Since a 3-0 start that saw them hold the Giants, Jets and Jaguars to a total of 26 points, Denver’s defense has given up an average of 28 points in three straight losses. The Browns will start Case Keenum at QB. Most will tell you how this is a downgrade from Baker Mayfield and they aren’t wrong. Keenum is not helped by the fact that over half of the Browns’ offensive starters are injured. However, the Broncos’ defense has a ton of injuries as well. Three linebackers are out. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times the Browns have been off a loss. Too many things can happen in an NFL game - like a touchdown by the defense or special teams - for us not to choose Over when the total is this low. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Though they lost Week 1 to the Steelers, this start to the season that the Bills have put together really couldn’t be much more dominant. They’ve scored the most points in the league and also given up the fewest. On Monday they will face the Titans, a team that beat them 42-16 in a rare Tuesday game last season, and we believe that the Buffalo offense will keep humming right along. We warned you about this Tennessee defense back in Week 1 when we played the Cardinals. The Titans gave up 38 points in that game. They have given up at least 27 in three of their five games, one of those times coming against the Jets who are last in the league in scoring. The Bills come in averaging 34.4 points/game and should hit that average tonight. As for the Bills having allowed the fewest points, it obviously helps that they have faced Miami and Houston. The other three games have seen them give up 20 or more points every time. Tennessee remains a strong team offensively with RB Derrick Henry, who has 640 yards and four straight 100-plus yard games. The Over is 25-9-1 in the Titans’ last 35 games overall and 7-1 the last eight times they have been an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Well, there’s a lot going on with this matchup isn’t there?. Arizona, the only undefeated team left in the NFL, will be without its head coach and QB coach because of COVID-19. This is on top of several on the field absences: Center Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams and LB Chandler Jones. But Cleveland is not unscathed coming into Week 6 either. They will be missing RB Nick Chubb. There were 16 others on the injury report, several of whom will not play. But these teams are still more than capable of sending this one Over the total. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is having an MVP caliber season thus far as he has completed 70% of his passes in four straight games. The offense is fourth in points per game at 31.4. The Browns were just involved in a 47-42 game last week. They lost despite gaining 531 yards. While Chubb is out, Baker Mayfield can still hand the ball to Kareem Hunt, who once led the NFL in rushing.. Arizona being banged up in the secondary should open things up for the Browns in the passing game. When these defense have turned in quality performances this year, it has been because they’ve faced subpar quarterbacks. We believe the total has come down too much for this matchup. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The Eagles’ defense has been terrible the past two weeks. Some of that has to do with losing defensive end Brandon Graham to a season ending ACL injury. Some of it has to do with facing the Cowboys and Chiefs. Still, there’s no excuse for giving up 41+ points in back to back games. Philadelphia is 31st in the league right now at stopping the run, so even without Christian McCaffery they can move the ball. The 3-1 Panthers have averaged 26 points/game the last three weeks and should have no problem achieving that average again. But their defense was exposed a bit last week as they too got a taste of the Cowboys. Carolina allowed 36 points against Dallas, which was more than they allowed the first three weeks when they faced the Jets, Saints and Texans. We think the Eagles are going to be able to do something closer to what the Cowboys did than the other three teams. Jalen Hurts is coming off a career day where he threw for 387 yards. Twice the Eagles have hit 30 points this year and only once have they been held under 21. The Over is 33-16 in Philadelphia’s past 49 road games and is 21-9 L30 when they are a road dog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Cleveland is a top 10 offense and QB Mayfield is completing 73% of his passes. But the strength of this Browns offense is the run game. It’s arguably the best in the league with Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. Coach Kevin Stefanski knows the opponent well as he previously served as the offensive coordinator under Mike Zimmer in Minnesota. But the Vikings can score as well, Kirk Cousins is playing at a very high level so far. He’s throwing for over 300 yards/game, has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. It certainly looks as if he’s getting Dalvin Cook back this week. Cook missed the team’s 30-17 win over Seattle in Week 3. Minnesota is 1-2, but four points away from being 3-0 and the offense has produced over 400 total yards in every game. The dominant performance we saw from Cleveland’s defense last week should be immediately tossed aside as they were facing a rookie QB making his first start behind a terrible offensive line. The Browns allowed an average of 27 points in its first two games. The Over is 8-2 the Vikings past 10 home games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 1-1. Philadelphia won its first game but lost the second. It’s been just the opposite for Dallas. An Eagles defense that has yet to force a turnover will struggle to stop a high-powered Cowboys offense Monday night. Dallas averaged 6.4 yards per rush and 8.8 yards per pass against the Chargers last week. It was a little stunning that they only had 20 points and needed a 56-yard field goal on the final play to win. Through the first two weeks, the Cowboys are averaging 435 yards/game and converting over 55 percent of their third down opportunities. They have 35 plays of 10 or more yards. It was already going to be a tough task for Philly to slow down their opponents in this game. With DE Brandon Graham suffering a season-ending ACL injury last week, the task is now that much harder. So that’s one half of this equation. After scoring 32 in the season opener, the Eagles were held to 11 last week by the 49ers. But they had a blocked field goal and a 94-yard drive ended with no points. Dallas doesn’t have a good defense. They’ve allowed over 400 yards to both of their 2021 opponents. The Over is 8-2 in the Cowboys' last 10 home games. The Eagles are on a 15-6 run to the Over after a game where they were held under 15 points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 8* on OVER

Arizona is humming so far at 2-0. The offense has scored 72 points in two games. We had them in Week 1 when they went to Tennessee and whipped the Titans 38-13 as a 2.5 point underdog. Last week saw the Cardinals survive a missed Vikings FG attempt on the final play to win 34-33. They’ve scored a lot of points so far, but Arizona is still the only team in the league that hasn’t gone Over the total in a single road game the last two seasons. The Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine road games. But considering the state of the offense, we think we can count on them to put lots of points on the scoreboard this Sunday. Kyler Murray threw for over 400 yards against the Vikings. Jacksonville is not humming along right now as it’s an 0-2 start under Urban Meyer. The only thing the Jaguars are leading the league in right now is turnovers with five. They were beaten at home by Houston in Week 1, 37-21, which was a total embarrassment. The offense couldn’t do much (less than 200 yards) in last week’s 23-13 loss to Denver. Meyer and Trevor Lawrence desperately need a good performance in their second home game. The franchise’s losing streak is now at 17 straight. Arizona’s defense isn’t good so the Jags probably will score a season-high in points Sunday. But the problem is the Cardinals will score a lot too. Murray is going to be facing a banged up secondary. That Under streak on the road ends this week. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the UNDER

Not expecting a lot of points from this AFC North matchup. Bengals’ games have averaged 44 points so far. That’s how many points they’ve scored and allowed in two weeks. The Steelers have scored 40 and given up 42 for an average of 41 points/game. Ben Roethlisberger, whose best days are behind him, enters Week 3 banged up. The Steelers’ offensive line has played poorly thus far and will be challenged against this Cincinnati pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson. The poor offensive line play has also resulted in Pittsburgh averaging only 3.2 yards per carry in the run game. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Bengals also have a poor offensive line. Joe Burrow has already been sacked nine times. We saw what the Steelers pass rush did to Josh Allen in Week 1. Now they weren’t as effective in a 26-17 loss to Las Vegas last week. TJ Watt got hurt and is questionable for this week. A couple other defensive players have already been ruled out. Despite those absences, Pittsburgh’s defense will still be fine. We can't see the Bengals putting up a ton of points in this game. In a 20-17 loss to Chicago last week, they only gained 248 yards. But the defense only allowed 208. Taking the Under is an easy call here.

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We’ve got a backup QB starting for Houston and he’s a rookie no less. If that’s not bad enough, the rookie in question (Davis Mills) will be facing the defense that has given up the fewest yards in the league through two weeks. And it’s a short week for Mills. So you can pretty much write off the notion of the Texans scoring many points on Thursday Night Football. After Mills replaced injured starter Tyrod Taylor last week, the offense managed just one touchdown against what is a pretty porous Cleveland defense. The Panthers are only putting up 22.5 points/game and enter this one knowing it won’t take much scoring to get to 3-0 on the season. Look for them to play it pretty conservative on offense as Sam Darnold still can’t be trusted to air it out. They will instead look to run a lot with Christian McCaffery. He’s had 59 touches in two games. Back to the defense, Carolina has yet to give up any points in the first half. The Under is 5-0 in their last five regular season games. Tonight has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

We’ve got a recipe for a shootout on Sunday when the Texans and Browns meet in First Energy Stadium. Houston is expected to be one of the worst teams in the league this year but that did not stop them from putting up 37 points in an upset win over Jacksonville in Week 1. The offense averaged 6.0 yards per play with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. Cleveland is expected to be one the better AFC teams but they lost 29-27 to Kansas City last Sunday, blowing a 22-10 halftime lead. Baker Mayfield and the offense were red hot in the first half, averaging more than nine yards per play. They finished with 8.2 yards per play, 457 total yards and really should have won that game. No interest in laying the double digit spread with the Browns here, however we are confident that they will put up a lot of points. So too will the Texans as the Browns defense couldn’t get off the field in the second half last week. Taylor isn’t Patrick Mahomes but he did throw for almost 300 yards last week. These teams’ Week 1 games averaged 60 points and we don’t need to get nearly that high to send this one Over. The Browns are 6-1 Over their last seven games on grass. Play OVER

This is a 10* on UNDER

You’ve got a Giants team that’s 13-3-1 to the Under since the start of the 2020 season. That’s the highest Under percentage in the league over that time. They COULD be without starting running back Saquon Barkley Thursday night as it's a short week and Barkley is still recovering from ACL surgery. No matter as the Giants only scored 13 points with him in the lineup last week against Denver. And that was at home. The Giants were 31st in league last year, ahead of only the Jets, averaging 17.5 points/game. The Under is 8-0 the last eight times New York has been an underdog and 7-0 the last seven years (for them) in Week 2. It’s also 20-8 the past 28 times they’ve taken on Washington. The Football Team is already on its backup quarterback with Taylor Heinicke replacing the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. Heinicke did play a decent amount in last week’s 20-16 loss to the Chargers. So Washington also failed to score 20 points in Week 1. That shouldn’t be surprising. Last season’s average total number of points scored in Washington games was 42.3. The only team whose games averaged fewer points was (you guessed it) the Giants at 39.8. So this total is not too low. The Under is 10-1 in Washington’s last 11 games on grass. They have a good defense. One more trend to close - the Giants are 6-0 Under coming off a double digit loss at home. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Baltimore has a habit of getting the season off to a great start as they’ve covered five straight Week 1 games. They’ve scored 38 or more points each of the last three openers. Lamar Jackson has accounted for eight touchdowns the last two years in Week 1, the most by any player in the league. The Las Vegas defense really struggled in ‘20 giving up the second most touchdowns in the NFL. It worked out to 30.8 points/game allowed. The absolutely terrible injury bug that has bitten Baltimore’s running backs would be a bigger deal if they didn’t have Jackson. But they do. Look for Jackson to hook up with TE Mark Andrews, who had seven touchdowns over the final seven regular season games of last year. One injury on the defensive side of the ball, to CB Peters, may be a bigger deal here for Baltimore. That’s because the Raiders averaged 27.1 points/game themselves last year. That’s an almost identical number to what the Ravens averaged offensively. So it’s no surprise the Over was 13-3 in all Las Vegas games in the 2020 season. Seven of the eight home games went Over including all six where they were an underdog. They ended 2020 on a 5-0 Over run. The last five times they’ve played Baltimore, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

For the fourth straight year, Chicago and Los Angeles will be facing off in primetime. The previous three installments have all been low-scoring games (Under 3-0) and seen an average of just 26.3 points/game scored. The quarterbacks will be different this time around, but we think the end result (a low-scoring game) will remain the same. Andy Dalton starting for the Bears is a mistake and we don’t fear him at all going against what was the league’s #1 ranked scoring defense last year. Not only did the Rams allow the fewest points/game (18.5), they also allowed the fewest number of yards. In the last three meetings vs. the Rams, Matt Nagy’s offense has scored just 32 points and never topped 15. Jared Goff is the new starter in LA and while he’s going to be better than Jared Goff was, the loss of RB Cam Akers to a season-ending injury does loom large. The Under was 8-0 in Rams’ home games during the 2020 season as there was an average of only 34.3 total points/game scored. This total looks way too high for the first week of the regular season considering the head to head history and Dalton facing what was the top-ranked defense in the league last year. It wasn’t just last year; the Under is 14-3 in the Rams’ last 17 home games. Chicago is 13-5 Under its last 18 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

We like the Over in 49ers-Lions game as well. We already went through how easily the Niners should be able to move the ball in this one. Well, let’s now throw in the fact that the last 10 Lions season openers have all gone Over the total. Their offense should score enough to make it 11 in a row. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

You surely remember how Tampa Bay’s 2020 season ended. A 31-9 thrashing of Kansas City in Super Bowl LV has to rank among the peak accomplishments of Tom Brady’s career and think of the ground that covers. Every starter from the Bucs’ Super Bowl winning team  - on both offense and defense - returns for the 2021 season. That has never happened for a SB winning team in the salary cap era. An even more frightening proposition is that Brady was playing with an injured knee last season and still threw for 50 touchdowns in the regular season & playoffs. He’s had offseason surgery to fix the knee issue and also has had an additional year to further grasp Bruce Arians’ offense. The Cowboys, coming off a 6-10 SU campaign, do not have the defense to stop the Buccaneers. They gave up 29.6 points/game last year. While Jerry Jones sought to address the defensive concerns via the Draft, we don’t think you are going to see automatic improvement on that side of the ball, right off the bat. We do think you’ll see the Cowboys’ offense be good again now that Dak Prescott is set to return from an ankle injury that cost him most of the 2020 season. Even with RG Martin possibly missing Thursday’s game, the offensive line is one of the league’s best. RB Elliott should have a bounce back year and we like the receivers. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 10 games where Tampa Bay has been a home favorite. Dallas is 4-0 Over its last four tries as an underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The big question this week is whether or not Patrick Mahomes is going to play. He left the Divisional Round win over Cleveland with a concussion. Mahomes was practicing again Friday after taking almost all the snaps in practice on Wednesday and Thursday. So it sure does look like he’s going to be the man under center for the Chiefs Sunday as they face the Buffalo Bills in a rematch from Week 6 of the regular season. Kansas City won in Buffalo, 26-17, in what was a hastily rescheduled game played on a Monday night. Since that time, the Bills have been beaten just once in 12 games and that came on the “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. With or without Mahomes in there (we expect him to play), expect this game to be higher scoring than the one from the regular season. The Bills are averaging 30.3 points/game this year while the Chiefs are at 29.1. Last week was not indicative of what we’re used to seeing from either offense. KC ran for a season-best 245 yards against Buffalo the first time. Meanwhile, Buffalo is as pass happy as it gets.The Chiefs defense is the worst in the league in the red zone, so expect the Bills to score touchdowns, not field goals, when they get there. The Over is 12-5-1 in Bills games this season, one of the higher percentages in the league. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Browns were fortunate to jump out to a 28-0 lead on the Steelers last week and held on for a 48-37 win. Pittsburgh turning the ball over five times played a key role in how the game started and obviously the final result. It is unlikely Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City will be so generous. After watching the Browns defense give up over 500 yards passing last week, Mahomes has to be licking his chops. Cleveland’s pass defense has been very bad all year against the deep ball, on third downs and at stopping tight ends. The Chiefs offense is prolific in all those areas. The Browns allowed Mason Rudolph to throw for over 300 yards, for crying out loud! Bottom line is what you should expect here is a lot of points by KC, who is off a bye and rested most starters in Week 17. But the thing is Cleveland will score too. They’ve now had three 40+ point games in the last six weeks! With Chubb and Hunt, they have the best rushing attack in the league. The Chiefs’ defense is 31st (2nd worst) against the run. Also, the Chiefs defense has been very bad in the red zone, giving up a TD on 77% of all trips. That was the highest percentage in the league. The Browns offense scores a TD on 74% of its red zone opportunities, which is third best. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Snow is a possibility Saturday night in Buffalo, but as we’ve seen countless times before, the public often overreacts to that when it comes to betting the total. Both the Ravens and Bills can score in bunches and we don’t think the “white stuff” is going to be able to stop either team. Baltimore averages 28.7 points/game on the year. They only scored 20 last week, but had averaged 37.2 the previous five games. Buffalo averages 31.1 points/game on the year. The Ravens defense did a great job last week containing Derrick Henry, but the Bills’ passing attack may prove more difficult to contain. Josh Allen was 4th in the league in completion percentage and has been exceptional against the blitz (which the Ravens like to do), throwing a league high 17 TD passes against it. But the Bills need to be concerned about their own defense, which just allowed 472 yards to the Colts last week. They gave up 163 rushing and 309 passing. Lamar Jackson is likely to have another big game this week after running for over 100 yards vs. the Titans. Bills games are 12-4-1 to the Over this season, which is the second highest Over percentage in the league. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

So the Bears’ offense somewhat transformed down the stretch, really taking off once they settled back on Mitch Trubisky as the starting quarterback. While it was disappointing to see them score only 16 last week against the Packers, they’d previously gone over 30 points in four consecutive contests. We obviously know what the Saints’ offense is capable of doing. Since Drew Brees returned to the lineup, NO has scored 29, 52 and 33 points. That 52 came the last time Alvin Kamara played as he tied a record with six touchdowns. Scoring 33 without him last week was almost as impressive. Kamara has been activated for this Wild Card Game as has WR Thomas. So a slumping Bears defense is now set to face a Saints offense operating at full strength. But that Bears defense won’t be operating at full strength as their best player (LB Smith) has been downgraded to “out.” They are just going to have to hope the offense can continue its average from the L5 weeks, which was 31.2 points/game, tied (with the Saints) for sixth. The teams combined for 49 (with the game winning FG kicked in OT) in the regular season matchup. Five of Chicago’s last six games have gone over 50. Two of the Saints last three went over 60. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The Bills haven’t won a playoff game in more than a quarter century, but this year’s team looks like the one that can break that streak. It’s the first time Buffalo has been favored in a playoff game since ‘96 and they come in having outscored their last six opponents by 119 points. They’ve averaged 38.2 points/game during the six-game win streak and just put up 56 last week when we told you to take the Over vs. Miami. (Went Over by themselves). For the Wild Card Round, the Bills draw an Indianapolis team that may not put quite as many points on the board, but the Colts have scored no fewer than 24 in any of the last eight games. This has all the makings of a shootout on Saturday as the Bills are an aggressive offense that likes to pass on first down while the Colts should have success running the ball with Jonathan Taylor, who just went over 250 yards rushing last week. Over the last four weeks, Indy allowed the third most passing yards in the league. The Over was 11-4-1 in Buffalo games during the regular season and that includes 3-1 when the total was 51 or higher. Take the OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

So here’s the situation with this Week 17 matchup from the AFC East. Buffalo can guarantee itself the #2 seed with a win. That would mean at least two home playoff games. The worst they can finish is #3, which would require them losing this game and Pittsburgh (who is playing backups) winning at Cleveland. Miami’s situation is more tenuous as they need to win here just to get into the playoffs. They are not necessarily eliminated with a loss, but that’s a situation they’d obviously like to avoid. Obviously, so much here depends on how long the Bills play their starters. Matt Barkley is the backup QB to Josh Allen. But quietly, the Dolphins have put up 26, 22 and 27 points the past three games. Tua Tagovailoa will have to start here as Ryan Fitzpatrick tested positive for COVID. The Dolphins have gone Over their last five times playing on turf. This was already a low total and continues to get lower. There has been only one Bills game all year where less than 43 total points were scored. Even with backups, we’ll get there. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

All of a sudden, Chicago has a shot at the playoffs. This after being “left for dead” when a 6-game losing streak had them at 5-7. But back to back wins have turned things around in a dramatic way. They still need to win out and have Arizona lose once. Winning this week should not prove difficult as they are facing Jacksonville, losers of 13 in a row. The Jaguars’ offensive numbers are just terrible. They average only 17.0 points/game at home. So whether it's Gardner Minshew or Mike Glennon starting at quarterback (looking like Glennon) is of little concern. Remember Jacksonville shouldn't want to win as they are line to get the #1 pick. But we wouldn’t dare lay this many points with a Bears team that is just 3-10 ATS its last 13 games as a favorite. While the situation may seem conducive for a big offensive game from Chicago, a 4th straight game from them with 30 or more points would be somewhat unprecedented. You’d have to go back to 1965 to find the last time a Bears team did that. Let’s be careful about anointing Mitchell Trubisky as anything special. The Bears are not a team that can send the game Over themselves, so let’s play Under as the Bears DEFENSE should be the stars Sunday. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

When Tampa Bay went out and signed Tom Brady, making the playoffs became not just a goal, but an expectation. With a win Saturday in Detroit, the 9-5 Buccaneers can officially realize that expectation and start concentrating on a Super Bowl. The 5-9 Lions don’t figure to offer much resistance, especially with interim head coach Darrell Bevell and defensive coordinator Cory Undlin set to miss the game because of COVID. Since Bevell also serves as the offensive coordinator, look for the Lions offense to struggle. QB Stafford has injured ribs and QB coach Sean Ryan will be calling plays, something he’s never done in a NFL game. Expect the Lions, who don’t have much success running the ball to begin with, to have virtually zero success doing so in this game. The Bucs have the best run defense in the league, yielding only 78 yards per game. On the offensive side of the ball, slow starts have been a problem all year for TB. The Lions are 11-5 Under L16 December games. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Neither the Steelers nor the Bengals have done much scoring lately. Pittsburgh, who was 11-0 but now is 11-2, has not scored more than 19 points in any of its last three games. While a matchup with 2-10-1 Cincinnati certainly seems like a recipe for success, the Steelers simply won’t have to score many points to come out ahead in this one. That’s because their defense - still one of the league’s best - figures to have one of easiest “days at the office” on Monday. The Bengals are starting Ryan Finley at QB tonight. He’s even worse than Bradon Allen, who quite frankly wasn’t very effective himself in filling in for the injured Joe Burrow. In the last five games, Cincinnati has scored just 50 points total, never more than 17 in any one game. How do you think they are going to perform with a third string QB going against the league’s #1 scoring defense? Pittsburgh won’t put up 30 in this game, simply because they “don’t have to.” Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on OVER

The Browns played a thriller Monday night, ultimately coming up short against Baltimore by a score of 47-42. It probably won’t be that high scoring again Sunday night, but we still like the Over vs. the Giants. The Browns have scored 83 points themselves the last two games, despite facing two probable playoff teams. So the fact the Giants have gone Under in four straight against winning teams and their last four overall doesn’t mean much to us, even if backup Colt McCoy is forced into a starting role again. Freddie Kitchens, the Browns former head coach, will be calling plays here for the G-Men. That’s interesting. He should know the opponent well. The Browns defense has given up 82 points the last two games. The Giants defense will be playing without its best cornerback, James Bradberry. The Browns are 4-0 Over the last four times they’ve been a road favorite. The Giants are on a 7-3 Over run after scoring 15 points or less their previous game. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

At 4-9, Carolina has no shot at making the playoffs. But we can count on them to score. In four of the last five games, the Panthers have scored at least 23 points. The problem is they have LOST all four of those games. The one win in that five-game stretch was 20-0 over Detroit. Good luck here shutting out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay has been playing at an elite level of late, scoring 30 or more in four consecutive contests. That shouldn’t be a surprise though. Rodgers and the GB offense are averaging 31.5 points/game for the season. Packers’ games are averaging more than 55 points total, which easily exceeds the OU for this matchup. Other than that shutout of the Lions, which should be viewed as an anomaly, the Panthers defense has permitted 25 or more points in every game since 10/25. In the last four losses (and you figure they are going to lose this week), they have given up 33, 46, 28 and 32 points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Saints have gone Under in their last five games. The Eagles have gone Under in their last six games. The total for this game being so low should not be a surprise then, especially because Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts will be making his first NFL start against a defense that has given up a total of just 44 points in its last five games. That New Orleans defense is 1st in the league in yards allowed, 2nd against the run, 4th against the pass and 4th in scoring. They also have the 3rd most sacks while forcing the 7th most turnovers. The Eagles have not scored more than 17 points in any of the last four games and stand little chance of doing so here. Over those last five games, the Saints’ D has allowed just two touchdowns and one was in garbage time last week vs. Atlanta. Remember that Taysom Hill is still the Saints starting QB, so they won’t be putting up a lot of points either. They can simply rely on the run game in what should be an easy victory that won’t require many points. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis should put up a lot of points here against a Raiders defense that has allowed 35, 43 and 28 points the last three weeks. While the 28 points allowed last week were the fewest of the three games, Las Vegas was facing the winless Jets and nearly lost that game. The Colts have scored at least 26 points in four straight games and Baltimore is the only team to hold them below that number in the last seven games. The good news for Las Vegas is they’ve scored 31 or more in four of their last five games. So this should turn into a shootout Sunday in Sin City. The Colts defense had been really strong in the early part of the season, but injuries have started to take their toll. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 32 points. The Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ games this season, the second highest such percentage in the league. So high-scoring games are nothing new to them. Same with the Colts, who are 6-2 Over their last eight games. Both teams could easily go for 30+ here. The Raiders are on a 6-0-1 Over run as home dogs. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Lamar Jackson is off the COVID-19 list, which means we can just assume he’s going to start tonight for the Ravens. That’s bad news for a Cowboys defense that’s already giving up 32.6 points/game, which is the most in the league this season. Particularly concerning for the Cowboys is a run defense which is last in the league, allowing 156.4 yards per game. Baltimore will get both Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins back this week after both missed last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. As a team, the Ravens have run for 100+ yards in 34 consecutive games. So they’re going to move the ball in this game. Last time we saw Dallas they allowed 41 against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. That horrid effort dropped them to 3-8 on the year. With Andy Dalton as the starting QB, you may not be expecting much from the Cowboys offense tonight. But they did put up 31 on the Vikings two weeks ago. Scoring only 16 against an excellent Washington defense (did you see last night?) should not be viewed as a big deal. The Ravens defense has given up at least 28 points in three of their last six games. The Over is 4-1 the last five times Baltimore has been off a loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Because of Covid, the 49ers have lost their home field advantage. This game is being played in Arizona (Cardinals stadium) as will next week’s “home game” vs. Washington. That’s a pretty significant disadvantage for the stretch run, although the Niners did just go on the road and beat a very good Rams team last week. Buffalo has already played once here in Arizona and that’s a game they’d like to forget as they lost on the infamous “Hail Murray.” If you recall, that was a high scoring game (32-30) as are most Bills games with the average number of total points scored being 52.8. That’s noticeably higher than the total set for tonight. The 49ers average 27.2 points/game at home, which is up from what they are averaging on the road. A key for them last week was that WR Deebo Samuel, who leads the league in yards after catch, returned to the lineup. The Over is 7-3-1 for the Bills this season including 7-0-1 when they are off a win. (They put up 27 in beating the Chargers last Sunday). Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Even with Kyler Murray nursing a shoulder injury, we think there’s going to be plenty of offense in this game -- from both sides. The good news for Murray and the Cardinals is that this game is at home. The Rams defense just hasn’t been as good on the road as it's been at home. They give up 23.3 points/game on the road compared to just 15.0 in Los Angeles. Arizona is one of the best rushing teams as they lead the league in yards per attempt and are 4th overall in rushing yards. They and the Rams both run up-tempo offense, which is conducive to the game going Over. All five times that Arizona has covered as a home dog for Kingsbury, the game has gone Over. (We like the Cardinals to cover this week). The Rams may have the highest Under percentage in the league this season (tied with Chicago at 8-2) but something to keep in mind is the Under is 5-0 when they’re at home. Again, this game is being played in Arizona, not LA. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the OVER

The Titans and Colts meet for a second time in three weeks. Last time, on a Thursday night in Nashville, the Colts. They shut Tennessee out in the second half, which is quite the achievement, and the game really turned on a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown. While the Colts probably can’t count on scoring another special teams touchdown this week, they also probably can’t count on shutting the Titans out for a half. That has us on the Over. The good news for the Colts is that they have scored 31 or more in four of the last five games. Tennessee always scores a lot with Ryan Tannehill manning the offensive ship. The 17 points against the Colts were a season-low for the Titans. They average 27.9 points/game for the year. Then there’s this gem: Tannehill is 17-3 Over his last 20 starts including 8-2 this season. The Colts defensive line, which has been such a strength this season, is depleted due to COVID. So Derrick Henry should have a big game as he wears the defense down late (as per usual). Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the UNDER

We also like the Under in this game. Go to the writeup on the side and see all the reasons we cited why we don’t think the Bengals will score much here. Cliff notes: Joe Burrow is out for the season and the two top running backs are injured. (Gio Bernard MAY play after suffering a concussion last week). The Bengals have scored a total of 19 points the last two weeks and didn’t score any after Burrow left the game last week. The Giants defense has been pretty good over the last month, never giving up more than 25 points. They’ve allowed 20 or less four of the last seven games and this is the weakest offense they’ll face all year. However, with the Giants scoring between 20 and 27 each of their last five games, we shouldn’t expect them to “go off” either. They’ve topped 23 in just two of the last seven games. This will be a low-scoring game and a blowout win for the Giants. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Washington and Dallas played five weeks ago and the Football Team emerged victorious by a score of 25-3. That may have been the low point of the season for the Cowboys. Backup Andy Dalton left the game with a concussion, rendering the offense helpless. But Dalton was back last week and led the team to a surprising 31-28 upset of the Vikings. A good sign moving forward is that Ezekiel Elliott had his first 100+ yard rushing game of the season. Dallas definitely will score more their second time facing the Washington defense. But of course their own defense remains a problem. It is giving up 31.8 points/game and has surrendered no fewer than 23 for nine straight contests. Washington is off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and has looked really good over the last six quarters with Alex Smith playing QB. However, there is one caveat we’ve got to mention in regards to last week. The defense got real lucky with Bengals rookie Joe Burrow getting hurt. In the first half, Washington's defense didn’t force a single punt. The Over is 8-2 in the L10 meetings between these teams and 5-0 here in Dallas. Even though this is a battle of 3-7 teams on Thanksgiving, first place in the NFC East is on the line. The game will belong to the two offenses. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on UNDER

The Cowboys are having a season to forget as they are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. For a while there, the Vikings seemed to be on a similar trajectory. But they have rallied for three consecutive wins and covers to get to 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS. The most recent win came Monday night, 19-13 over the Bears. The next three weeks (including this one) have Minnesota playing at home and they figure to be a strong favorite in every game. But we would be wary of laying this many points with a team playing on a short week, especially considering Dallas is off its bye. The ‘Boys did show some life two weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh, but still scored only 19 points. That’s the most they’ve scored in the four games since Dak Prescott went down with an injury. All four of those games have gone Under. We don't think the return of Andy Dalton will matter much. We already mentioned that the Vikings are off a low-scoring game themselves. Mike Zimmer will probably play this one "close to the vest" as he isn’t likely to pull out many tricks. The Under is 10-4 in Dallas’ last 14 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

So the Saints are going with Taysom Hill here, not Jameis Winston, in place of the injured Drew Brees. That was a surprise to some, but we’re going to trust Sean Payton knows what he’s doing. The Saints should still be able to score plenty against a Falcons defense that is giving up 27.9 points/game and doesn’t really know what to expect from Hill. Remember that New Orleans started this season by going Over in every one of the first seven games. Atlanta can score too; they’ve averaged just over 30 points/game since Raheem Morris took over. The Saints strength on defense is stopping the run. The Falcons aren’t likely to run the ball very much here as Matt Ryan is going to test the Saints secondary. This is a game where the winning side is likely to score 30 and we think the loser will score enough to get it over the hump. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

It’s a low total this week on Monday Night Football, but that shouldn’t be a surprise with the Bears involved. They haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game since that improbable come from behind win over the Falcons back in Week 3. But in all fairness, they’ve been facing some strong defenses. Minnesota has allowed 20 or more in every game and 29.3 per game for the season. We don’t think the Bears will hit that latter number here, but they’ll certainly score enough to where this NFC North game goes Over the total. Then you’ve got a Minnesota offense that seems to have found its rhythm behind the running of Dalvin Cook. Cook has scored five touchdowns the past two games while running for 369 yards. The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in six straight games. Five of those games have gone Over. All six have seen at least 50 points scored. Something we found to be interesting is that all five NFC North games this season have seen the Over hit. Play on the OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER

Pittsburgh is one of four teams that is 6-2 ATS, the best such record in the league. But Cincinnati happens to be one of the other three. Of course the Steelers’ 8-0 SU record is the envy of not just the 2-5-1 Bengals, but the rest of the league as well. On Saturday, Big Ben was activated from the COVID-19/reserve list and is expected to start Sunday. He should have plenty of time to throw against this Bengals defense that has generated only 11 sacks and recently traded Carlos Dunlap. On the other side, rookie Joe Burrow figures to be running for his life. The spread is larger than what we’d feel comfortable laying, but look for this AFC North game to go Over. Five of Cincy’s last seven, including three straight, have gone Over. The last three games have seen 58, 71 and 51 points scored. Pittsburgh averages 32.5 points/game at home. Last week’s poor effort (still a 24-19 win in Dallas) was their lowest scoring game to date. They are 16-6 Over L22 as a home favorite. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

We expect a hot start from both offenses on Thursday when the Colts take on the Titans. Indianapolis actually dominated the first half against Baltimore last week, owning a huge edge in total yards. They didn’t make the most of it though and ended up losing the game 24-10. They are still scoring an average of 26.0 points as last week was their lowest scoring effort of 2020. Tennessee didn’t have its best offensive showing last week either. They were held to a season-low in yardage (224). It was actually the defense that led the way in a 24-17 win over Chicago. But be careful about putting too much stock in that performance. The Bears offense isn’t good. The Titans defense had really been struggling on third down this season before holding Chicago to 2 of 15. In the first seven games, the Titans were allowing opponents to convert at 62% on third down. The Colts defense has put up good numbers, but also faced a lot of bad offenses. Tennessee is 7th in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.0 points/game and they are averaging 33.0 at home. Play the OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

These Patriots aren’t the same Patriots we’re used to seeing. Bill Belichick is already missing Tom Brady as the team is an uncharacteristic 2-5 after seven games. Yet it could be worse. The Jets are 0-8 and easily the worst team in the league. New York is expected to turn to Joe Flacco tonight as Sam Darnold is dealing with a shoulder injury. But there’s no way we’re laying this massive number with a team (NE) that’s lost its last four games. We like the Over. With scoring at an all-time high in 2020, this total is just too low, even with Flacco as one of the starting QBs. While the Jets are last in offense, they do give up 29.8 points/game. We fully expect the Patriots to come through with their highest scoring game in over a month here. Last week they put up 21 on Buffalo and it would have been more had Cam Newton not fumbled late in the red zone. The Newton-led offense has scored 30 or more twice this year. For the Jets, their only other primetime game (Week 4 vs. Denver) produced their highest scoring game of the season and that was with Flacco playing most of the game. Play on OVER

AAA

THis is an 8* on the OVER

We had the Over when these teams met in Week 1 and had the Over in both of their games last week. All three Over bets were victorious. The Over is 7-0 in Saints games for the year. Given that, this number is way too low. Last week was the first Saints game this season where 50 combined points were scored. It was 49 and that was against an all defense/no offense team (the Bears). Saints games are averaging 57.5 points. Five of the seven have gotten to 57. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are averaging 30.9 points/game. They are averaging 35.7 at home. It wasn’t their finest game Monday against the Giants. But that was on the road. The two weeks prior saw them score 45 (on the road) and 38. Also, look who’s back this week. New Orleans will welcome back WRs Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Chris Godwin is expected to play for Tampa Bay and they just signed Antonio Brown. The Over is 17-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 22 games, so they’ve been an Over machine as well. The Over is 4-2 when Brees faces off with Brady. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on the OVER

Carolina-Kansas City is one of eight games on the Week 9 slate with a total of 50 or higher, matching a season-high. It’s a game that should end up even higher scoring than expected. The Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, certainly needs no introduction.They are putting up 31.6 points/game. The last two games have seen them score 43 and 35. Mahomes has a 21-1 TD-INT ratio and COULD get Sammy Watkins back this week after the WR missed the last three games. With or without Watkins KC is gonna score on the Panthers defense which often fails to generate a lot of pressure. Carolina’s offense could be better, but the potential return of Christian McCaffrey would be the *chefs kiss* in going against a Chiefs defense giving up a ton of rush yards every week (29th in yards allowed). Like Watkins, McCaffrey’s possible return should just be treated as a “bonus.” We like the Over even if neither returns this week. The Over is on a 23-11 run when Carolina is a road underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Coming off a 45-point effort last week vs. Las Vegas and a 38-point effort the week before that (vs. Green Bay), Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense should be in for another big night Monday against the Giants. This Giants defense has struggled to defend the pass (21st in air yards allowed) even though they have already faced four backup quarterbacks! The Buccaneers are averaging 31.7 points/game for the year, so they’ll obviously do most of the scoring here. They are a huge favorite and for good reason. New York is already guaranteed to lose six of its first eight games for the fourth straight season. That’s the worst such active streak in the league right now. While the Giants don’t score much, they are averaging 17.4 points/game, which would be enough to help send this Over presuming Tampa Bay hits its own scoring average. The Buccaneers have allowed 20 or more points three of the last four games. The Over is 20-8 in the Bucs last 28 road games. Over is also 4-1 in the Giants’ last five as a road underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

All the focus is going to be on the Cowboys offense in this one with Ben Dinucci, a 7th round rookie, making his first start. But you can’t forget about how bad this Dallas defense has been in giving up an average of almost 35 points/game. That’s the most in the league and really notable considering how low this total is Sunday night. The Eagles have given up 30 or more points three times themselves. They give up 28.0 points/game. Carson Wentz has played better the last three weeks, a stretch which has seen Philadelphia average 26.3 points. They had over 400 yards last week despite scoring only 22 vs. the Giants. No Eagles game has seen less than 43 points scored. We know it may not have been the case last Thursday vs. the Giants (when we won with the Under) but two bad teams can easily produce a high-scoring game with mistakes. Don’t be surprised if there’s a defensive touchdown in this game. Over is 5-0 for Philly the past five times they’ve been off a game with 350+ total yards. Over is 7-2 for Dallas off a loss by 14 or more points. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 9* on OVER 

Taking the Bears Over may sound risky given that they didn’t score an offensive TD Monday night. But they are playing the Saints, who have gone Over in every game this season. As per usual, Drew Brees and the Saints offense are putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 30.0 per game. This is a very low total for a Saints game. Every single one of their games has seen at least 51 total points scored. The offensive production has come in spite of missing Michael Thomas most of the way. But Chicago does have a chance in this game and that’s because of the Saints defense, which is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago. That unit ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency and has allowed six passes of 48+ yards the last four games. They’ve allowed the second most TD passes in the league, trailing only Atlanta. Nick Foles will make a couple big plays in this one. He threw an interception in the end zone last week. All we probably need from the Bears is 20-21 points and that’s basically what they are averaging this year (19.7). Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

The Chargers are 1-4 but as is usually the case, they’re losing close. All four losses have been by seven points or less, three of them coming against the Chiefs, Saints and Bucs. Two of those three were in overtime! They are off a bye here and facing a Jaguars team that also has just one win, but has been a lot less competitive in doing so. Jacksonville lost 34-16 at home to Detroit last week, making it five straight games they’ve allowed 30 or more points. All five have been losses. The Chargers offense scored 31 and 27 against Tampa Bay and New Orleans as rookie QB Justin Herbert continues to perform better than expected. He very well could be in for his best day as a pro this week. He might have to be, seeing as the Chargers defense has given up 38 and 30 points in those last two games. Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew has attempted 40 or more passes in each of the last five games. The Over is 7-3 in the Jags previous 10 conference games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

The NFC East is a total joke right now. Despite losing Dak Prescott for the year and getting blown out Monday night, Dallas is still in first place with a 2-4 record. Either the Giants or Eagles will join the Cowboys at 2 wins after Thursday. That is unless they tie, which Philly did earlier in the year against Cincinnati. The Giants were the last team in the division to record a win, doing so last week, appropriately against Washington. They scored just 20 points though and that was with a defensive score. New York is 31st in both yards and points per game offensively and their scoring average of 16.8 PPG would be significantly lower if not for putting up 34 points against the worst defense in the league (Dallas). The Eagles scored 28 last week against the Ravens, but a lot of that came in “garbage time.” Carson Wentz isn’t having a good year at all and TE Zach Ertz is going to be out for at least 3-4 weeks. Running back Miles Sanders will also miss this game. They aren’t turning things around on a short week. The only good news for Eagles fans is that the Giants have topped 16 points on offense in only one game this year (at Dallas), so they won’t be scoring much here. The Under is 5-1 for the Eagles, their last six games as a home favorite while it’s 4-1 for the Giants in their last five as a road underdog. Play on UNDER. 

This is a 10* on the OVER

With the exception of the Monday night game vs. Kansas City, Baltimore has run roughshod over the rest of the league, winning four games by 14 points or more. This week they travel to Philadelphia to face a wounded Eagles team that’s 1-3-1 overall and just gave up 38 points to Pittsburgh last week. Seeing as how the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in all of their wins this year, we see this game going Over the total with little drama. The Ravens probably could have scored even more if they “wanted” last week, but with such a commanding lead over the Bengals, they clearly took their foot off the gas in the second half. The Eagles are likely to be playing “catch up” most of the way here and one positive for them is that they have increased their scoring from the previous week in every game this season. But a defense that’s given up an average of 29 points/game while facing some not very good offenses is in for a rough one this week. The Over is 4-0 for Philadelphia the last four seasons in Week 6. That trend stays alive this week. Consider how much scoring we’re seeing across the league this year, this number seems low. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The 4-0 Bills and 3-0 Titans had to wait a couple extra days, but finally get to “hook it up” in a special TUESDAY night edition of the NFL. Tennessee did not play last week as it was a COVID-19 outbreak among their ranks that not only forced a cancellation, but the postponement here. Buffalo was originally going to host Kansas City this Thursday, but that game had to be bumped back to Monday due to the situation here. So by the time these teams do hit the field, there will have already been a lot of moving pieces dealt with. We don’t think either offense is going to be firing on all cylinders given the circumstance and will take the Under. Depending on what your closing line for last week’s game with Las Vegas was, there is a chance that you have the Bills at 4-0 Over. They’ve hit 30+ points three weeks in a row as the offense has greatly exceeded expectations thus far. Tennessee is off two straight 30+ point games, but those might as well have been last season. They are missing multiple receivers now including Corey Davis. This will be the highest total either team has faced so far this season. Under is 20-8-1 Bills L29 road games. Play on UNDER

This is an 10* on LA/NO Over

New Orleans has gone Over in every game thus far, scoring 30 or more points themselves three times. They’ve also given up 29 or more points in three straight games. Last week, they won a 35-29 shootout at Detroit. We had the Saints in that one and watched them score touchdowns on five consecutive drives after trailing 14-0 early. They had 29 first downs and this was without WR Michael Thomas, who could be back for this game. As long as Alvin Kamara is part of the offense, it will continue to score. He already has 557 total yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. The Chargers had not gone Over in a game this year until last week’s 38-31 loss to the Buccaneers. That was a wild one and while LA lost, the offense is definitely in better hands with rookie QB Justin Herbert guiding it as opposed to veteran Tyrod Taylor. We think both teams are going to be able to move the ball up and down the field in this Monday nighter and given NFL games are averaging right around 51.5 points for the year, this total is too low considering the Saints are involved. The Over is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last eight MNF appearances, one of those coming three weeks ago vs. Las Vegas. The Over is also 10-4 the Chargers’ L14 games after allowing 30 or more the previous week. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times these teams have met. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Two playoff teams from last season both have their fair share of issues going into Sunday night. The 49ers are as banged up as any team in football right now, having already lost their QB, RB, top two receivers and top two defensive players. Some of those players could return this week though. TE George Kittle is the most likely (to return) while WR Samuel also could find his way back on the field. Regardless of the absences, the 49ers have found a way to score 30+ points in back to back games. Backup QB Nick Mullens is fine. Philadelphia is 0-2-1 with QB Carson Wentz struggling. But we can seem him getting things going this week against a 49ers defense whose numbers are skewed after facing the likes of Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones the last two weeks. Two of the Eagles three games have gone Over and had they not settled for a tie with the Bengals last week, the Over would be 3-0. This is a low total relative to the rest of this week’s card. The Over is 18-5 the L23 times Philly has been a road underdog. It is 6-2 Over the L8 times the 49ers have been home favorites. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Saints might be at home and favored, but the Packers are the team with all the momentum heading into this Sunday night matchup. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are 2-0, having put up two 40+ games so far. Now those came against Minnesota and Detroit, two teams that are a combined 0-4. But let’s not forget the Saints just allowed 34 points Monday night to Las Vegas. Even though the narrative is that New Orleans’ offense is “struggling,” that group is still averaging 29 points/game. Most teams would love for that to be considered “struggling.” The Over is a combined 4-0 in these teams games this season. Expect this to be another shootout as its two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time going up against some suspect defenses. Green Bay did allow a frightening number of yards per play against Minnesota in Week 1 (7.8). They also gave up touchdowns on the first two drives vs. Detroit.  This is one of those deals where the oddsmakers probably can’t make the total “high enough” as the Over is 23-11 in GB’s last 34 road games. The Over has also gone 7-1 the last eight times these teams have played. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Two of the NFL’s three Floridian teams meet in the Week 3 opener Thursday night. Jacksonville was supposedly tanking this year, but at 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS has been surprisingly competitive thus far. Miami is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, a disappointment to those who thought this team might be competitive in the AFC East this season. Thus far, the Dolphins defense has not played very well. Particularly last week when they surrendered 524 yards on a horrific 8.9 yard per play average against the Bills. Even though it's a short turnaround and they’re playing on the road, we look for Brian Flores’ D to turn it around this week. Jacksonville, despite averaging 28.5 points/game, lacks the kind of weapons that Buffalo and New England (Miami’s Week 1 opponent) have. With Miami, it should be pointed out that they had scored only 24 points through the first seven quarters of the season. The clock is clearly ticking on QB Tannehill as the fans want to see Tua. The Under is 9-4 in Jacksonville’s last 13 home games as well as 7-1 the L8 times they allowed 30 or more points the previous game. The Under is also 6-1 the last 7 times these teams have played. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

We’ve got two teams on Monday Night Football that scored 34 points last week. Both teams also gave up their fair share (of points) last week, so it was 2 for 2 when it comes to Overs. With New Orleans, both the quarterback and coach seemed dissatisfied with their performance. Brees and Payton are likely to be much more satisfied with themselves after facing this terrible Raiders defense this week. Last week Las Vegas gave up almost 400 yards to a Carolina team with a 1st year head coach and new starting quarterback. That’s really nothing new for the Raiders. Over the last three seasons, they have ranked second to last in points allowed and dead last in yards per play allowed. They allowed 6.1 yards per play last week vs. Carolina. Even though they won’t have WR Thomas, look for the Saints to move the ball up and down the field in this game. Las Vegas should put up a decent number too, in their brand new stadium. The Over is 5-2 in the Saints last seven Monday night games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Lots of line movement here as Tennessee has been bet to the role of favorite after opening as a 2-point dog. The total, which is what we’re playing, has also been on the move. It’s down to pretty low 40.5 as of press time, which would be the second lowest O/U on the board for NFL Week 1 (only Jets-Bills lower). Injuries have also become a factor in handicapping this nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Titans are going to be without three defensive starters: Adoree Jackson, Vic Beasley and Derrick Roberson. The Broncos have one major absence on the defensive side of the ball themselves, that being Von Miller, who has suffered a serious ankle injury. All those missing defensive players have us taking the Over here. Denver’s offense is going to be a lot better this year. The front office went out and made sure to surround QB Drew Lock with plenty of skill position talent. Let’s not forget Tennessee made the AFC Title Game in January on the back of RB Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s rushing leader. They scored 20 or more points in their final 10 games last year. The Over is 4-0 the Titans L4 MNF appearances and 6-1 the L7 times they have been a favorite. The Over is also 8-2 Denver’s L10 season openers. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

This is probably the most anticipated game of the weekend as Tom Brady and the new look Bucs head into New Orleans to take on the always tough Saints. It’s the first time Brady will be an underdog in his last 75 regular season starts. Brady has been outstanding as an underdog (37-16-1 ATS) In his career and will obviously be motivated. He has much better weapons at his disposal here in Tampa than he did last year in New England. The Saints are the Saints. They are always going to score plenty. While the Bucs defense was actually underrated in terms of yards and stopping the run last year, the Over still went 12-4 in their games. In his last two home games vs. Tampa Bay, Drew Brees has completed over 80% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over is 4-1 L5 meetings including 2-0 last year. Over is 6-0 in the Saints past six season openers. Over is 10-1 TB’s L11 conference games and 5-0 L5 times as a road underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Both Super Bowl participants have seen their defenses get the job done over multi-game stretches. San Francisco’s defense didn’t allow more than 20 points in any of its first seven games. Then came a rash of injuries, which in turn saw them allow more points per game over the second half of the season. But they got healthy again just in time for the playoffs - and just like we saw over those first seven games - they have been an elite group. They held the Vikings and Packers to just 30 points, pitching a shutout for a half in each game. They’d allowed just 10 points through six quarters before Green Bay put some “garbage time” points up. The 49ers rank second in yards allowed and are a top 10 scoring defense. But surprisingly, the Chiefs are also a top 10 scoring defense and allow just 18.0 points in road games. They held Tennessee and Houston to basically nothing after the first quarter of each playoff game. In the final six regular season games, the Chiefs held every opponent to 21 points or less. Play UNDER 49ers-Chiefs

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Green Bay’s offense did next to nothing when it faced the San Francisco defense in the regular season. They were held to eight points, a pathetic 81 yards passing and just 2.8 yards per play. They’re bound to do better this time, but will the 49ers score 37 points again? Not likely. Since taking it on the chin from the 49ers, the Pack are an undefeated 6-0 and allowing just 15.7 points/game. San Francisco is giving up only 18.8 points/game (5th), GB isn’t far behind as it gives up just 19.8 points/game (9th). The Under is 5-1 the last six times GB has been an underdog. As it turns out, the regular season matchup between these two teams did stay Under a near identical total. The Packers were only three-point underdogs for that game. Including last week’s 27-10 win over Minnesota, the Under is 4-0 the 49ers past four playoff games. The Packers, as we predicted they would, went Over last week. But that was against a bad Seattle defense. Play UNDER Green Bay-San Francisco

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Seattle got here by beating Philadelphia 17-9 in the Wild Card Round. As per usual, the Seahawks hardly looked impressive in achieving victory. They won by beating a 40-year old backup (Josh McCown) that was called into emergency duty when Carson Wentz was knocked out by a dirty hit from Jadeveon Clowney. Nevertheless, the Seahawks offense did gain an impressive 6.7 yards per play last week. Say what you will about Seattle's resume, but Green Bay has rode the same good fortune to get here, typically winning "ugly" and close. The Packers defense did play well down the stretch, but is unlikely to hold the Seahawks to 17 points this week. Over the final five regular season games, Green Bay faced four of the worst quarterbacks in the league (Jones, Haskins, Trubisky and Blough). So that's why you saw the defensive numbers improve. By the same token, Seattle goes from facing a 40-year old that had zero time to prepare to a rested Aaron Rodgers. By the numbers, this wasn't your normal Rogers-esque season. But the Packers offense did average 6.4 YPP at home and is going against a defense that allows 6.2 YPP on the road. Worth mentioning that the Over is 10-1 in Seattle's last 11 games as a playoff underdog. The Over is also 5-1 in Green Bay's last six playoff games. Play OVER Seattle-Green Bay

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is a late add to our Saturday NFL Playoff card as we’ve been monitoring the total all week and like where the number is now. Going into Foxboro and winning a playoff game is definitely impressive. But the Titans didn’t do much offensively. Ryan Tannehill passed for only 71 yards, a number which isn’t going to win you many games. The running game was much more successful (201 yards), but gaining that kind of yardage against the Ravens is just not likely. Baltimore’s opponents gained an average of just 93 yards/game on the ground in the regular season, doing so at only 4.3 yards/carry. Remember the Titans had only 14 points last week before a late INT return for a TD. If Tennessee is to have any chance in this game, it will be because of a defense that allows 17.2 points/game on the road. They won’t hold the Ravens that low, but combined we don’t see both teams exceeding the number here. The Under is 6-1 in Tennessee’s last seven playoff games and a perfect 6-0 the Ravens last six playoff home games. Play UNDER Tennessee-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The 13-3 Saints host the 10-6 Vikings on Wild Card Weekend. Because of Drew Brees, New Orleans will always be known for their offense. But it has been a much improved defense that has helped guide them to back to back 13-win seasons. The Saints gave up an average of just 21.3 points/game this season. They'll need that defense to show up on Sunday because the Vikings actually allowed a fewer number of points per contest, coming in at 18.9. There are some incredible trends supporting the Under in this one. For starters, Minnesota has gone Under in its last five Wild Card games. They've also gone Under 15 of the past 22 times they've been an underdog. But the most eye-opening trend of all is that the last seven NFL Wild Card games with a spread of seven points or more have all stayed Under! We certainly don't expect Vikings QB Kirk Cousins to play well in this spot. So don't go expecting many points from the underdog. At the same time, Minnesota's defense can keep them in the game. Look for the defenses to rule the day and this one to go Under. Play UNDER Minnesota-New Orleans

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

You probably don't need us to tell you that the Over is almost always a more popular bet than the Under. This goes for any sport, but especially football. Every week, in virtually every NFL game, there are more bettors taking the Over as opposed to the Under. But this Pittsburgh-Baltimore game is an extreme example of the opposite taking place. We're not sure if we've ever seen a game where the public was so excited to play the Under. Baltimore, who will be the #1 seed in the AFC and has nothing to play for, is resting its starters. Robert Griffin III will start at quarterback in place of Lamar Jackson. Pittsburgh's last seven games have all gone Under, none of them seeing more than 40 points scored. Five have seen less than 30. But if you're not expecting effort in this game, well you're wrong. The Steelers have a chance to make the playoffs and John Harbaugh's approach to preseason games tells us he'll be coaching to win here as well. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Baltimore

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

We know that Kansas City is capable of putting up a lot of points. Chicago not as much, but the Bears offense has at least been better of late. They still put up over 400 yards in a 21-13 loss to Green Bay Sunday. Mitchell Trubisky threw for over 300 yards for the second time in three games. The offense is now averaging nearly six yards per play those last three weeks. It's not like the Chiefs defense is very good. Disregard last week's performance as it was in the snow against a rookie quarterback. The Chiefs still give up 357.8 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play for the season. Recently, they have faced some struggling offenses. Patrick Mahomes had no issues with the snow last week. He threw for 340 yards. There were a lot of long drives that ended with field goals in that Denver-KC game. The road still sees KC averaging over 30 points/game. This number is just too low not to try the Over. Four straight KC games have gone Under, which is rare. Play OVER Kansas City-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

A critical game for both teams, though that's for different reasons. The Saints are still in play for the NFC's top seed. They are tied with the 49ers, Seahawks and Packers, all of whom also have just three losses. The Colts have lost three in a row, blowing leads in every game, to fall to 6-7 and see their own playoff chances go on life support. The fact that Indy has only been beaten once by more than one score means we won't be laying points Monday night. But the Over is something we can get behind after the way both of these defenses played last week. The Colts gave up over 500 yards in a 38-35 loss to the Bucs, almost all of it coming through the air. That's good news for the Saints' Drew Brees, who threw for 349 in a losing effort last week. The reason New Orleans lost last week was because their defense was torched for 8.2 yards per play by the 49ers. That was right here at home too. Over the last seven weeks, the Saints have scored at least 31 points every game except when facing the Falcons (familiar opponent). The Colts have allowed 69 points the last two games. Play OVER Colts-Saints

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Eli Manning will be starting for the Giants this evening. Not by choice, but rather due to the fact his replacement (Daniel Jones) is injured. You may recall things were not looking so good for Eli at the start of the season. In two games, both losses, he posted a QBR of 38.4. The Giants offense scored just 31 points. Things haven't been looking good for the Giants for some time now. They did win Jones' first two starts, but have dropped eight in a row since. During that losing streak, they've been held to 18 points or less five times. To think Manning will come in and right the ship seems outlandish. The Eagles also have issues. Last week saw them suffer an embarrassing 37-31 loss to Miami. Not sure where that (lack of) defensive effort came from. The previous four games all saw the Eagles defense give up no more than 17 points. At the same time, we don't trust what the Eagles did on offense in that game either. The previous three weeks saw them score a total of 41 points. Three times in the last six games, they scored 10 points or less. Philadelphia obviously needs this game more as somehow they've remained in playoff contention. But don't look for them to put up many points either. Same with the Giants. Play UNDER Giants-Eagles

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

We also like this game to go Over the total. That may sound surprising given all that is true about this Steelers defense. But remember what we said about Arizona's defense. The Cardinals are last in the league at 426.3 yards/game allowed. Miami is the only team that has allowed more points. The 2-10 Giants are the only opponent that failed to reach 23 points on them. Five of the last six games have seen the Cards give up at least 30.  If Pittsburgh is able to get to 30, then we're looking at a pretty easy Over here. Arizona's offense was pathetic in a 34-7 loss to the Rams last week, but had averaged 26 points over its three previous games. They can score between 14 and 20 here, right?  The Under has hit in every Steelers road game so far (five of them). But three of those came against teams that have top four defenses (in yards allowed). Another was against the 31st ranked scoring offense (Cincinnati). Finally, the last one that needs accounted for was on a short week (Thursday night loss to the Browns). Weather won't be a factor this week either. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Arizona

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

The Browns saw their playoff hopes take a major hit with last week's loss to the Steelers. This game with the Bengals no longer looks like a cakewalk as for the first time all season, Cincinnati is off a win. At least the game is at home where the Browns have won three in a row. This offense is having all sorts of problems but did score 41 two weeks ago here vs. Miami. Browns home games are seeing a total of 46.2 points/game scored this year. That's up from 40.2 on the road. With Andy Dalton back as the starting quarterback for the Bengals, they are a far greater threat to put some points on the board. We saw this last week when they put up 22 on the Jets, ending what had been a 13-game losing streak dating back to last season. That may not sound like much, but it was the most points put up by Cincy since a Week 5 loss to Arizona, a game which Dalton also started. Going with Ryan Finley was not a terrible idea by a first year coach, but it was painfully obvious Finley wasn't very good. Dalton makes this a better offense as he's auditioning for a job (probably somewhere else) next year. The Under is 6-0 in Bengals road games, but this game puts an end to that streak. Play OVER Cincinnati-Cleveland 

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Both teams are 6-6 and coming off Thanksgiving Day games. Chicago won on Turkey Day, 24-20 over Detroit, while Dallas lost 26-15 to Buffalo. The Cowboys have lost three of their last four games and six of the last nine.  This is the third straight week the Cowboys are facing a top five scoring defense. Against New England and Buffalo, they managed just 9 and 15 points. The Bears have not allowed more than 22 points in any of their last six games. However, despite some of the recent struggles, Dallas still has the league's #1 ranked offense. We believe they'll find more success here against the Bears than they did vs. Buffalo or New England. The Bears defense has gotten to face some pretty weak opposing quarterbacks of late, third stringer David Blough being the most recent example. Dak Prescott is the NFL's leading passer. Speaking of quarterbacks, Mitchell Trubisky has actually played better of late. He's thrown for 979 yards the last four games including a season-high 338 on Thanksgiving. This total is just too low. Even if the final score is 24-21, the game goes Over. This could end up being the lowest total for any Dallas game this season. Play OVER Dallas-Chicago

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

The Vikings come into this game at 8-3. The Seahawks are 9-2. It should be a good one at Century Link Field on Monday with two of the NFC's best teams looking to improve their respective playoff positioning. Minnesota is off a bye, which seems helpful. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has had his fair share of struggles on Monday Night Football (0-7 SU and ATS!), but he comes into tonight's game with the highest passer rating in the NFL. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is #2.  Both teams come in averaging roughly the same number of points per game. Minnesota is at 26.3 while Seattle is at 26.5. The Vikings defense allows about six points/game fewer.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven of the last eight games. There have been only three games this season where they failed to score 23 points. Five of the last six have gone Over including three straight. The Seahawks are coming off a low-scoring win over Philadelphia (17-9), but before that had scored at least 27 points in eight of nine games.  Really surprising is that Seattle allows 29.2 points/game at home. The Vikings defense has allowed an average of 6.2 yards/play the last three games, which isn't good. Play OVER Minnesota-Seattle

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

The Patriots have held every opponent but one to 14 points or less. That one exception was Baltimore, who hung 37. That's New England's only loss. Tonight, they face another dynamic, playmaking QB in DeShaun Watson. While the Patriots may very well win this game, expect them to give up more points than they usually do. The Texans are 7-4 and lead the AFC South by one game over Indianapolis and Tennessee. With those two teams playing each other this week, a loss here by Houston would guarantee a first place tie in the division. So this is a really important game for the Texans. Unfortunately, they've managed to beat the Patriots only one time in franchise history. Eight of the 11 all-time meetings have gone Over with New England scoring at least 27 in the last 10.  Houston has scored at least 20 points in every game but three. Two of those three came in the first four weeks. The other was vs. Baltimore. While they've gone Under in four straight, the only time the defense was really tested, they gave up 41 points. Much is being made of New England's recent offensive struggles. Even Tom Brady has been pretty vocal about it. But we expect a big game from Brady tonight. Houston's defense has allowed over 500 yards rushing in the three games since JJ Watt got hurt. Keep an eye on receiver N'Keal Henry, who caught a TD last week for the Patriots. Play OVER New England-Houston

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

We'll try this again. Nine straight Tampa Bay games have gone Over. At least this week, they've got an opponent that shouldn't do much in the way of scoring.Jacksonville has lost three straight (all division games) and averaged only 12 points/game in doing so. Since returning, Nick Foles hasn't meant much. Whether it's been Foles or Gardner Minshew II at quarterback, the Jaguars are still averaging less than 20 points/game this year. The Jaguars defense was gashed badly last week by Tennessee. At one point, they allowed four touchdowns in six plays. Now they are dealing with injuries on top of that. It looks bad and Tampa Bay's offense certainly has big play capability. But look for the Jags somehow, someway to be better on defense. Bucs QB Jameis Winston can certainly be a drive-killer with his turnovers. Jacksonville's offense isn't going to do much here and because of that, the game will stay Under. Each of the last three weeks, Tampa's games have not gone Over until the final minute. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Jacksonville

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER 

As long as Cincinnati is winless, you can count on them to try. Though it’s happened twice in the 21st century, no team wants to go winless. The Bengals are 0-10. Half of those losses have been by 7 points or less though.  Pittsburgh is coming off the tumultuous game with Cleveland that ended with that ugly brawl. The Steelers also lost the game 21-7. There were players that took some blows that weren’t from Myles Garrett. Center Pouncey, RB Conner and WR Smith-Schuster will among those watching this one from the sidelines. The Steelers are averaging only 13.5 points/game on the road, making them an ugly favorite here. But the Bengals actually average 17.5 points at home. This is a very low total, which isn’t surprising, but the public pounding the total down opens up an opportunity. It may seem odd to take the dog and the Over in the same matchup, but it’s the combo we like. Play OVER Pittsburgh-Cincinnati

AAA

This is an 8* play on OVER

Another Over we like. A Washington game finally went Over last week, but they were on the wrong side of a 34-17 final score. It stopped a six-game Under streak. On the bright side, it was the most points the Redskins scored in a game in almost a month. They haven’t topped 17 since Week 2. But rookie Dwayne Haskins is now the starting QB. This will be the weakest defense Haskins has faced in his pro career. Detroit gives up 412.7 yards per game as well as 27.2 points. Only once in the last five games have they allowed less than 26 points. Four of those games have gone Over. So Washington should have ample opportunity to score this week. Still no Matt Stafford for the Lions. But seeing as the Redskins just gave up 34 points to the Jets that shouldn’t be a problem. Play OVER Detroit-Washington

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay is on an eight-game Over streak. Some of the games have gone Over by a lot. But recently, the line between Over and Under has been a lot thinner. Last week’s Over with New Orleans was a 34-17 game with a 50-point total. It was a late pick-6 that sent things Over. Painful loss for us. Part of the reason we’re going to try the Under again this week is the defensive resurgence of the Falcons. The last two games have seen Atlanta hold the Saints and Panthers to just 12 combined points.The last four Falcons games have gone Under as well. While Atlanta’s defense has improved the last two games, their offense may be set for a decline. Injuries are starting to pile up as both RB Freeman and TE Hooper will miss this game. For what it’s worth, the Bucs defense has allowed the second fewest rush yards. Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed a TD since before the bye. They got a special teams TD last week, which probably isn’t happening again. These are two of the least efficient offenses in the red zone. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Atlanta

AAA

This is an 8* play on the OVER

The Rams offense may not be what it was last year, but this total is too low. When they faced the Bears last year, oddsmakers had the total at 50.5. That's a big change in one year's time. Now Bears fans will certainly want to point out what their defense did to the Rams last year. They held them to a season-low 6 points in an impressive primetime victory. But just like the Rams offense, the Bears defense doesn't seem to be what it was a year ago. When they're not facing one of the league's elite defenses, the Rams still do pretty well. A few weeks ago, asking the offense to break 20 points would have seemed like the easiest thing in the world. The Over is 5-2 when the Rams are off an ATS loss.  This is the lowest total for any Rams game in the Sean McVay era. That matters. There have only been three at 43 points or less, all of which occurred in the first six weeks of his tenure, and the Over was 3-0 in those games. The Bears offense is pretty bad, but even it scored 20 points last week. Getting to at least 17 this week seems realistic. Play OVER Chicago-LA Rams

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

New Orleans just suffered what has to be the most shocking loss of the NFL season. As a two-touchdown favorite, they fell 26-9 to the Falcons last week. That was at home. They were dominated. Coming off a loss like that, you figure the Saints will be eager to take the field this week. But they are traveling to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team that all of a sudden has some confidence following a last minute win over Arizona. Drew Brees is back but this Saints offense doesn't seem right. Last week was the 4th game this year in which they were held to 13 points or less. Some of that was with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. But slow starts have been the norm. New Orleans has scored just 25 points in the 1st quarter this year. Eventually that's going to catch up with them. It certainly did last week. Tampa Bay's last seven games have all gone Over. Some of them by a lot. But last week's only went Over when they scored the game winning touchdown in the closing seconds. The previous week's game went to overtime. The defense should get better this week with the return of CB Carlton Davis. Down a key offensive lineman (Andrus Peat), don't be shocked if the Saints again struggle to protect Brees. Also, Tampa Bay's defense is #1 in the league at stopping the run. But the Saints can probably count on their own defense in this game. They come in allowing just 20.2 points/game. Play UNDER New Orleans-Tampa Bay 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the OVER 

You have to wonder if the Over is set to make a "comeback" in these primetime affairs. The Under had been 13-4 in Sunday/Monday night games this year prior to last night's Over in Minnesota-Dallas. We had the Over last night and that's the way we're playing Monday night's game as well. It's not just about bucking a trend for us though. Both of these teams can certainly score. In their last home game, the 49ers put up 51 points. Seattle scored 40 last week in an overtime victory over Tampa Bay. The Seahawks will add Josh Gordon to their offense this week. The mercurial Gordon certainly has his share of off the field problems, but can be as talented a receiver as there is. Not that Russell Wilson needs much help these days. Wilson is having a MVP caliber season with 2,505 yards passing. That the Niners are without LB Kwon Alexander is huge. A rookie (Dre Greenlaw) is replacing him. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo should have a big night as well. Seattle's pass defense ranks 28th, giving up 278 yards/game. They allowed 460 yards to a backup (Matt Schaub) two weeks ago and then 335 to Jameis Winston last week. The Over has hit in six of Seattle's last seven NFC West games. The same for four of San Francisco's last five NFC West games. This could easily turn into a high-scoring game. Play OVER Seattle-San Francisco

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

The numbers aren't good here for Kirk Cousins, whether it be his record on the road vs. winning teams (0-7-1 SU/ATS with Minnesota), his record on the road in primetime (1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS) or his record against Dallas (1-6 straight up, including 0-4 vs. Dak Prescott). But Cousins has either completed 80% of his passes or thrown 3 TD passes in five straight games. The Vikings did lose last week, 26-23 at Kansas City, but are 23-9-1 ATS off a loss under Mike Zimmer. They're getting Dallas on a short week. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS after playing on Monday Night Football under Jason Garrett. So the trends aren't all against Minnesota Sunday night. Another trend that's interesting is the Under has gone 13-4 in Sunday & Monday night games this NFL season. That includes 8-0 when the home team is favored. But with two explosive offenses this week, we feel that trend is about to change. We've got two of the game's best runners facing off in Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott. Cook has 1232 yards from scrimmage and leads the league in rushing. The Vikings defense isn't the same away from home either as it has given up 56 points the last two road games. The Cowboys offense has scored 37 points in back to back games. They are averaging 6.8 yards/game and 436.6 yards/game. This total simply isn't high enough for a game that could quickly turn into a shootout. Play OVER Minnesota-Dallas

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

So Tampa Bay found another way to lose last week. It was blowing a 21-7 lead in Seattle and going down in overtime where they didn't even have a chance to possess the ball. A tough break for Bruce Arians team, which is now 2-6 on the year. This week find the Bucs favored for just the third time this season. They are hosting the 3-5-1 Cardinals who will be coming in with some confidence after taking the undefeated 49ers to the wire last Thursday. The Arizona offense even averaged over 7.0 yards/play against what is the league's top defense. With the Bucs on a six-game Over streak, the expectation here will clearly be for a high-scoring shootout. But be careful with expectations sometimes. This high number is something we can take advantage of this week.Tampa's run defense is actually #1 in the league this year, giving up only 78.1 yards/game. So hopefully they can make the Arizona offense one-dimensional. While Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has some of the same skill-set as Russell Wilson (who faced the Bucs last week), Murray just isn't the passer Wilson is - at least yet. The Under is still 15-7 in Tampa Bay's last 22 home games. Play UNDER Arizona-Tampa Bay

AAA

incorrectly entered play

This is an 8* on the UNDER

The Packers are 7-1 heading into this game and have won four straight. The Chargers are only 3-5, but did win last thanks to a missed field goal by the Bears. Even though they won, the Chargers offense gained only 231 total yards last week. They've scored more than 24 points in regulation just one time and that was against Miami. That's the only time since Week 1 that they've scored more than 20. The Under is 6-1 their last 7 games. The Over is 5-1 in Green Bay's last six games, so one of these teams O/U trends is going to cease. The Packers defense has been improved this year, giving up just 20.4 points/game. With Chargers games typically being so low scoring, signs point to that continuing this week. The Packers have faced a couple of bad offenses the last two weeks. The Chargers are giving up only 19.6 points/game. We love that the number has been bet up during the week. The Under is 5-2 for Green Bay following a game where they scored 30 or more points. Play UNDER Green Bay-LA Chargers

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Tampa Bay heads to Seattle desperate for a win. The Bucs are just 2-5 after blowing another lead and losing last week. Turning things around won't be easy though as the Seahawks are 6-2. We're calling for an Under. Seattle rarely blows anybody out. They have only one win by more than seven points all year. Last week's 27-20 win over Atlanta wasn't really that close though. The Seahawks led 24-0 at one point. The Falcons did much of their offensive damage in garbage time. Tampa Bay's last five games have gone Over. That has resulted in their highest O/U line to date. The same thing is true for Seattle. The number is too high. Tampa Bay has only gone over 26 points in two games. Seattle scored 27 last week, but just 16 the week before than and is actually scoring less at home where they are 0-4 ATS. The Seahawks lost their starting center for the season. That will have a major impact on the rest of the offensive line, if not the entire offense. One thing you shouldn't expect from this game is for Seattle to run the ball well. The Buccaneers are giving up only 69 yards rushing per game. That's the best mark in the league. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Seattle

AAA