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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Tennessee Titans.

Seattle has so far struggled to put points on the board this year, but we think that finally changes this weekend. Tennessee will be looking to put the foot on the gas from start to finish as well as it tries to get the Hawks’ elite defensive unit on its heels. An underachieving Seahawks offense matches up against a Titans team which rebounded off an opening week loss to smash the Jaguars 37-16 in Week 2. As good as the Hawks have looked defensively so far this year, there’s no question that the unit faces a stiff test in this dynamic Tennessee offense, led by Marcos Mariota. Mariota has a stable of backs and dangerous receiving weapons as well. Seattle’s defense is going to be taxed today in trying to stop all three phases, as Mariota is a legitimate dual threat himself. And speaking of dual threats, the Hawks’ Russell Wilson clearly can’t be happy the way his offense has been performing to this point. It’s been the red-zone offense as well, as the team had to settle for FG’s in its 12-6 win over San Francisco last weekend. Note that both teams have seen the total go OVER the number in five of their last eight non-conference games as well. With each team opening up the playbook and pushing the pace from the opening kickoff until the final whistle, we’re expecting this one to fly OVER the number sooner rather than later.

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This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER between Detroit Lions and the New York Giants.

The Giants were destroyed 19-3 at Dallas on Sunday night, but will be happy to welcome back star WR Odell Beckham Jr. to the line-up. The Lions looked lost for almost three quarters in their Week 1 matchup against the Cardinals before then exploding for a 35-23 come-from-behind victory. We think Detroit carries that momentum over here and we expect New York to get untracked offensively with Beckham Jr. back in the line-up.

The Lions: QB Matthew Stafford was 29 of 41 for 292 yards and four touchdowns. This isn’t an offense predicated around the run, so expect to this team air it out early and often once again. The defense was decent, but it faces a stiff test against this hungry Giants team.

The Giants: Nothing went right for New York and Eli Manning in Week 1. Without OBJ in the lineup to keep the defense honest, he was constantly under pressure. OBJ is back this week though and we think the offense will obviously look a lot better . The defense looked decent last week, but the numbers are skewed, as Dallas completely changed up its game-plan in the second half to a much more conservative style.

The bottom line: Note that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the posted number in two of its last three Monday Night games, while New York has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after scoring three points or less in its previous contest. Play the OVER.

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The is an 8* play on the OVER between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.

Both of these division rivals come in off disappointing/humbling Week 1 performances and as such, we’re expecting each to put the foot on the gas from start to finish in hopes to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole. San Francisco lost 23-3 at home to the Panthers last weekend. QB Bryan Hoyer had 193 passing yards and an INT, while Carlos Hyde had 45 yards on nine carries. The 49ers defensive numbers are skewed though, as Carolina jumped out to an early 20-0 lead and then completely changed up its game-plan. WR Pierre Garcon was a standout with 81 yards on six catches. Seattle can empathize with the 49ers, as it’d manage just nine points at Lambeau last Sunday. Russell Wilson was 14 of 27 for 157 yards and no TD’s. Doug Baldwin had 63 receiving yards. Note though that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in 12 of their last 16 on the road, while the Seahawks have seen the total go OVER ten of their last 18 at home. This one sneaks OVER as the game comes down the stretch.

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The is an 8* play on the OVER between the New York Jets and the Oakland Raiders.

The Jets lost in Buffalo last week, but looked a little better than most expected (or was it that the Bills looked worse?) Regardless, New York is going to have to match pace with the Raiders, who we believe will be airing it out from start to finish against this suspect Jets secondary. New York’s QB Josh McCown was 26 of 39 for 187 yards. The combination of Matt Forte and Bilal Powell was stuffed for just 38 rushing yards though and clearly they’ll be out to atone for the sub-par performance. Oakland got 262 yards from QB Derek Carr along with two TD’s last week. RB Marshawn Lynch was also solid with 76 yards on 18 carries. Note that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three off a loss against a division rival, while Oakland has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 14 at home. We think Carr has a monster day and we believe McCown will also have some opportunities. Play the OVER.

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The is an 8* play on the OVER between the Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

This one sets up great from a situational stand point. The Bears are coming off an encouraging home loss to the Falcons in Week 1, while Tampa comes in rested and ready to roll after its Week 1 contest was postponed at Miami due to Hurricane Irma. Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston threw for over 4000 yards last year and has plenty of weapons to utilize this year in WR DeSean Jackson and RB Jacquizz Rodgers. Last season Tampa ranked in the middle defensively, but it did have the second most INT’s. The Bears suffered some key injuries to WR’s, but in this game it’s always, “next man up!” Note that Tampa Bay has seen the total go OVER the number 12 of its last 19 games when the total in the contest is between 42.5 and 49 points, while Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in two of its last three against the NFC South. We like Chicago and Mike Glennon to build off their decent debut and for Tampa to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Play on the OVER.

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The is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Eagles smashed the Redskins 30-17, while KC posted an impressive 42-27 road victory over the Pats last Thursday. Both teams put considerable points on the board, but this time around we’re expecting a much more defensive battle in the tough confines of Arrow Head Stadium. The Eagles held a slim 19-17 lead in the fourth quarter last week, before then exploding for 11 points in a 30-second span. Philadelphia outgained Washington 356-264. Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz was 26 of 39 for 307 yards and two TD’s and one INT. Overall the defense stole the show for Philadelphia in Week 1 though. KC came out like gang-busters and overwhelmed the defending champs on Opening Night, piling up a ridiculous 537 yards offensively, while holding the league’s No. 1 offense from a year ago to 371 total yards, including giving up zero TD’s to Tom Brady. Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 28 of 35 for 368 yards and four TD’s. RB Kareem Hunt had 148 yards rushing and a TD, as well as 98 yards receiving with two TD’s. Everyone contributed across the board in the big win, but we think some regression is imminent in this non-conference matchup. Note that Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight non-conference games (and its last six games played in the month of September), while KC has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 16 at home and in 17 of its last 26 when playing the role of favorite. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER between the Houston Texans and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Houston fell 29-7 at home to Jacksonville in Week 1 and will be starting a rookie QB in this one. Cincinnati came out flat and fell 20-0 at home to the Ravens last weekend. When these teams met last year the Texans held on for a low-scoring 12-10 victory. These are two teams which normally struggle to put points on the board, but we feel this number is still a little low.

The Texans: QB Tom Savage was a disaster and was sacked six times, while fumbling it twice. DeShaun Watson was thrust into the spot-light and did well in the difficult position, going 12 of 22 for 102 yards, one TD and one INT. With a full week off to prepare to be starter, we look for Watson to come out much more focused and prepared. We also think the more pressing concern for Houston is on the defensive side of the ball. The offense was supposed to go through some growing pains, but the defense was supposed to be a strength. Overall the defense allowed 155 rushing yards, while producing no sacks. and focuring zero turnovers.

The Bengals: Cincinnati was terrible on both sides of the ball last week as well. Andy Dalton threw four INT’s and also fumbled the ball, finishing 16 of 31 for 170 yards. Dalton has an eltie group of receivers and a strong group at RB and there’s no possible way the unit could do any worse that in it did in Week 1. Suffice it to say, we absolutely expect the Bengals’ offense to bounce back here. And note that Cincinnati’s defensive numbers are skewed, as Baltimore was up 17-0 at half and completely changed its game-plan to a much more conservative style in the second stanza. 

The bottom line: Note that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two off a loss against a division rival, while Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range. We like these offenses to bounce back and we believe each will struggle again defensively. Play the OVER.

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys.

New York took both games from the Giants last year. Both starting QB’s come into the season with a lot of pressure for different reasons. For Giants’ aging QB Eli Manning, this has to be the fnal straw as another losing campaign will likely trigger a major change for the organization. Dak Prescott of the Cowboys will be looking to prove a point and that his first year was no fluke. That’s a lot of pressure at the most important position tonight and we think each pivot comes out a bit flat here. With each side putting an emphasis on the run game while on offense, this one does indeed set up great for an UNDER from a situational stand point. Also note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Dallas has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons. 

REASONING: The Patriots finished the regular season with the No. 1 ranked defense, one which conceded just 15.6 PPG. New England gave up just 16 points in its win over the Texans in the divisional round and then just 17 to the Steelers in the championship round. Atlanta would surrender just 20 points to the Seahawks in the divisional round and only 21 to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in the conference championship. While defense has been the Falcons’ main weakness all year, the unit is clearly playing at its best at the most opportune of times. The Pats have Tom Brady, but clearly the team can ill afford to get into a “shootout” with the Falcons’ No. 1 ranked offense, so look for New England to control this one while on offense, so as to keep Matt Ryan and company off the field of play as much as possible. This is the highest total in Super Bowl history and it’s a little too large in our opinion. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Atlanta Falcons.

REASONING: What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For us it’s clearly Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, two of the top passing QB’s in the league and of all time. Ryan leads the league’s top ranked offense, while Rodgers comes in on a massive hot streak and finished the regular season with 40 TD strikes, two more than Ryan. With the pressure on though, we think we’re going to see each team play it a bit more conservative tonight, trying to control the clock so as to keep the other side’s QB off the field of play for as long as possible. And from an Over/Under trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much better than this as the Packers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while ATL has seen the total go UNDER in 35 of its last 60 games as a home fav in the 3.5 to seven points range. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Houston Texans and the New England Patriots.

REASONING: Houston managed a win over the Raiders last week, but Oakland starting QB Derek Carr wasn’t playing after suffering a season ending injury in Week 16. Now the Texans travel from the safe and much warmer confines of home to play at frigid Foxborough against the league’s No. 1 defense. Note that the Pats have allowed an average of just 15.6 PPG. The Texans strength is clearly not on the offensive side of the ball. QB Brock Osweiler finished the regular season with a 15:16 TD:INT ratio. If the visitors have any shot at stealing this one, it’ll have to be on the back of RB LaMar Miller. Where Houston does dominate though is on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 20.5 per contest, which ranked 11th. For all of the reasons listed above, we’re expecting more of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open “shootout.” Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers.

REASONING: New York can ill afford to get into a “shootout” with the red hot Aaron Rodgers, so we’re expecting the visitors to play it a bit conservative on the offensive end. And by that we mean we’re expecting Eli Manning and the Giants to try and control the clock as much as possible so as to limit the amount of time that Rodgers is even on the field of play. New York owns the second ranked defense, one which concedes just 17.8 PPG. When these teams met in Week 5, Rodgers was held to 259 yards passing, along with two TD’s and two INT’s. Manning had just 199 yards, one TD and no INT’s. Green Bay would win 23-16 in the end and we’re expecting a similar final outcome here as well. Note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of eight as an underdog this year, while Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER in four of six this season as a home fav of 3.5 to seven points. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

REASONING: Both teams come into the playoffs on hot streaks, as Miami won three of its last four, while Pittsburgh ran off seven straight victories to end the regular season. Miami managed a 30-15 home win over the Steelers in Week 6, the Dolphins would go on to hold Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger to 189 yards with one TD and two INT. Miami had huge success with RB Jay Ajayi, who went for 204 yards against the Steelers. There’s no question what the game plan will be for Miami’s offense today, especially with competent backup Matt Moore under center for the visitors now. In the end the Fish averaged just 22.7 PPG this season, ranked 17th, while allowing 23.8. Pittsburgh is out for a little revenge today, note that it finished averaging 24.9 PPG, while allowing 20.4. We’re expecting a similar combined final score at the end of this one as when these two first met earlier in the season, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Oakland and Houston.

REASONING: Oakland’s worst nightmare came true when starting QB Derek Carr was knocked out for the rest of the season with a leg injury in Week 16. That means that the team turns to rookie Connor Cook. Clearly the pressure will be tremendous for the young man, so the Raiders will be leaning heavily on RB Latavius Murray from start to finish. Fortunately for Oakland, it faces one of the worst offenses in the league, as the Texans averaged just 17.4 PPG. QB Brock Osweiler has struggled in the starting role this year, he has a poor 15:16 TD:INT ratio. The home side will also be looking to establish its run game while on offense, so be prepared to see a heavy dose of LaMar Miller, who sat out the final two games of the regular season with an ankle injury. Neither team can afford to make a mistake on offense, so both of these QB’s will be on a leash. We expect this one to sneak UNDER the posted number once it’s all said and done.

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This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of six against teams with winning records and in five of eight when playing the role of underdog, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in ten of its last 14 off a divisional contest and in two of three off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: We think these two normally high-scoring teams play to more of a “chess match,” this afternoon, where field position ends up being a deciding factor. Play the UNDER.

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics and common sense:

As note that Dallas has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of seven road games this year and in six of nine after two or more consecutive wins, while Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER in five of seven at home and in its last five off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: Dallas has little to play for at this point and will simply be going through the motions. All signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS statistics:

As note that New England has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of seven road games this year and in six of nine after two or more consecutive wins, while Miami has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 13 when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and in eight of its last 13 after two or more consecutive victories.

The bottom line: There’s no way Miami can get into a “track meet” with New England and score an upset today. The Pats No. 1 rated defense will look to close the season strong. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs.

REASONING: This is an important divisional battle and as such, we’re expecting a more wide-open affair and believe these teams will combine to do just enough to push this one OVER at the end of the night. Both teams will  be hungry today as each enters off losses. Denver fell 16-3 at home to the Patriots, while KC lost 19-17 to Tennessee last weekend. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian will be especially motivated after stalling the last two games. When these teams met back in Week 12 though, Siemian would throw three TD’s, while Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith had one in KC’s eventual 30-27 OT victory. The Broncos get the job done on the defensive end, allowing only 18.4 PPG. But Denver needs to put points on the board if its going to have any shot at defending its title this year. KC had a 17-7 halftime lead last week and then stumbled in the second half. The Chiefs look to rebound, note that they’re 15th overall on offense with 22.8 PPG, while allowing 19.6, good for eighth overall. Note though that Denver has seen the total go OVER the number in all four games this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while KC has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four when the total in the contest is set between 35.5 and 42 points. Each are desperate for a win and both are looking to erase their respective collapses from a week ago. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances which we believe will lead to a higher-scoring OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL SUPER-BLOWOUT on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans.

REASONING: Cincinnati has been eliminated from playoff contention, but the team won’t be going down without a fight today and it will be relishing the role of spoiler tonight as Houston is still chasing a postseason berth. Last week the Bengals fell in a hard-fought 24-20 setback to the Steelers, while the Texans held on for a 21-20 win over Jacksonville. The Bengals’ Andy Dalton will be especially motivated in our opinion today. His team was just eliminated from playoff contention and he’s had a “down” year overall. It is the first time in six seasons that the Bengals will miss the playoffs. Dalton had just 157 yards, no TD’s and an INT last week and clearly he will be looking to end the season on a positive note and to bounce back big. And it’s basically do or die for the Texans tonight, a victory will almost assuredly mean that they’ll be headed to the playoffs for a second straight year. Backup Houston QB Tom Savage was 23 of 36 for 260 yards last week. Note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four this season following a divisional contest, while Houston has seen the total go OVER in three of four off a win against a division rival and in four of six against teams with losing records. Play the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills.

REASONING: Miami comes in off a 34-13 beatdown road win over the Jets, while Buffalo smashed the Browns 33-13. When these teams played back in Week 7, the Fish managed the high-scoring 28-25 victory. RB Jay Ajayi had 214 rushing yards in that one for Miami, while Tyrod Taylor finished with 221 yards passing and a TD for Buffalo. For a couple of different reasons, we’re expecting a much more defensive affair in the re-match. Despite the big offensive outburst against a horrible Jets’ secondary, Miami still averages just 22.5 PPG, which ranks it 17th. Backup QB Matt Moore filled in admirably in place of the injured Ryan Tanehill, but we think he’ll have a much harder time on the road in what will clearly be a very hostile environment. It should be noted that Miami did look pretty good on the defensive end last week with three sacks and two INT’s. We can expect to see a heavy dose of Bills’ RB LeSean McCoy today as he’s putting together a career season, posting 1,129 rushing yards so far. The Bills have averaged 25.6 PPG so far, while conceding 22.4, ranked 14th in the league. We’re expecting both teams to put an added emphasis on the run game while on offense and look for this one to indeed fall UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

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This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER between the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER in the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 games played in the month of December, while Washington has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four when playing on a Monday night.

The bottom line: Carolina has been relegated to playing spoiler at this point of the season, but with nothing to play for, we think the team will simply go through the motions today. Washington doesn’t want to turn this one into a track meet, so expect the home side to control the clock and be as effecient as possible. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL RED DRAGON on the OVER between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys.

REASONING: Both teams are jockeying for a playoff spot and we’re expecting each to open up the playbook today. Tampa comes in off a 16-11 home win over New Orleans, while Dallas fell 10-7 on the road to New York on Sunday. Clearly neither side can be happy with the way its offense played and as such, we’re expecting a much more dynamic game tonight. Tampa averages 22.5 PPG, ranked 18th and allows 22.8, ranked 16th. Dallas averages 26.2 PPG, ranked sixth and allows 18.3, ranked fifth. But Dallas has struggled to defend the pass all year, conceding an average of 268 passing yards per game (ranked 28th). We expect Jameis Winston to be given the “green light” to air it out from start to finish. And there’s no question that Dak Prescott and company will be looking to bounce back after last week’s debacle and take advantage of this suspect Bucs’ secondary. Note that Tampa has seen the total go OVER in three of four already this year following a divisional contest, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER in all three of its home games this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. This one has the feel of a shootout rather than a chess match, play the OVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Detroit Lions and the New York Giants.

REASONING: This is a big game for both of these 9-4 teams. The Lions are aiming for their sixth straight win, most recently besting the Bears 20-17 last week. New York managed a 10-7 victory over the Cowboys last Sunday night. Neither can be happy on how it performed on the offensive end and as such, we’re expecting each to open up the playbook today and for this total to indeed fly OVER the number once it’s all said and done. So far the Lions average 22.7 PPG, which ranks them 17th in the league, while the defense concedes 20.6, ranked tenth. QB Matthew Stafford has almost 3,450 yards and a 22:7 TD to INT ratio. New York only averages 19.6 PPG, ranked 25th, while the defense concedes 18.8 PPG, ranked seventh. Eli Manning has 3,290 passing yards with a 23:13 TD to INT ratio. Note that Detroit has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after scoring 20 points or less, while New York has seen the total go OVER in five of its last six after scoring ten points or less. These are a couple of mediocre offenses going up against a couple of above average defenses and that’s why this number is so low. But we think the overall situation lends itself to a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring chess match. Play the OVER.

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This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants.

REASONING: New York beat Dallas 20-19 in Week 1 and since then the Cowboys haven’t lost. Dallas enters off a slim 17-15 road win over Minnesota last Thursday, while New York fell 24-14 to Pittsburgh last week. When the Cowboys needed it, they found enough offense to pull off the victory, scoring ten points in the final frame. Dak Prescott was 12 of 18 for 139 yards, one TD and zero picks. So far Prescott has 19 TD’s to just two INT’s. Note that Dallas averages 27.8 PPG, ranked fifth overall. The Cowboys are ranked fifth on the defensive side as well, conceding 19 PPG, but in the first match up against New York, QB Eli Manning had three passing TD’s. The Giants’ six game win streak ended in the loss to Pittsburgh, Manning was 24 of 49 for 195 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s in the red zone. So far New York averages 20.4 PPG, ranked 24th overall. The defense has been better, conceding 19.8 points, ranked eighth overall. That defense though looked pretty bad in last week’s loss, allowing 389 total yards. Note that Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four against the division this year, while New York has seen the total go OVER in ten of its last 15 against division opponents. All signs point to a shootout, play the OVER.

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This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Arizona Cardinals and the Miami Dolphins.

REASONING: Both teams are hopeful at a wild card playoff spot, but each has to essentially “run the table.” Miami is the first team out in the AFC, while Arizona sits just a game behind the first team out, Washington. Arizona has lost two of its last three, but is coming off a 31-23 victory over the Redskins last week. Cards’ QB Carson Palmer has been hit-or-miss all year. Miami reeled off six straight wins, but took a big step back in last week’s 38-6 setback in Baltimore last Sunday. The Fish will be out to atone for that listless performance, especially on the defensive side after allowing 496 yards, including 386 through the air. QB Ryan Tannehill struggled, throwing three INT’s. Note that Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 non-conference games, while Miami has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 11 in the same position. It’s essentially a “must win” for each side. We’re expecting each to play it “safe” and for this one to fall UNDER once it’s all said and done.

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This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions.

REASONING: The Lions play with revenge today after Chicago beat them earlier in the year. Since that setback though Detroit continues to find ways to win and now sits alone atop the NFC North. Chicago won’t be going down without a fight and would love to nothing more than to sweep the season series. The Bears come in with momentum as well after pulling off the 26-6 home win over the 49ers in the snow last weekend. It wasn’t a pretty victory, but in the end Chicago put up 326 yards in very adverse conditions. Last week Detroit won in New Orleans and QB Matt Stafford had a big day, throwing for 341 yards and two scores. Note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five “dome” games, while Detroit has seen the total go OVER in six of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. All signs point to a shootout, play the OVER.

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This is an 8* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Oakland Raiders and the Kansas City Chiefs.

REASONING: Oakland has won six straight and comes to division rival Kansas City on the short week. The Chiefs sit right behind the Raiders in the division and a home victory today would be huge. To do that, KC will look to take advantage of its strengths. Like home field advantage. Like the adverse weather conditions (reportedly down to -9 celsius at game time). Like efficient clock management by veteran QB Alex Smith while on offense. KC can obviously ill afford to try and match pace with Raiders’ QB Derek Carr and company, who have had to come back from some big deficits to win games this year. Everything points to a game where field position will be paramount in the final outcome. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* O/U BLOWOUT BLOOD-BATH on the OVER between the Indianapolis Colts and the New York Jets.

REASONING: New York has already been eliminated from playoff contention, but would love nothing more than to play spoiler here. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets offense looked decent in last week’s loss to the Patriots. But Andrew Luck and the visitors are desperate for a victory, the Colts’ starting pivot returns to action after sitting last week with concussion, Indy would predictably lose 28-7 to the Steelers on Thanksgiving day. Note that Fitzpatrick was 22 for 32 for 269 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s last Sunday. Indianapolis has a top 10 offense, but it’s defense is ranked 28th overall. New York’s offense has struggled all season, but it catches a break this week in facing the Colts’ terrible secondary. Note that Indianapolis has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 14 against teams with losing records and in three of its last four when playing on Monday Night Football, while New York has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four as a home dog of 3.5 points or less and in five of its last eight off a loss against a division rival. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Washington Redskins and the Arizona Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Washington has interestingly seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five against the NFC West and in four of its last six “dome” games, while Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last eight games played in the month of December, in six of eight as a favorite this year and in all six games that it’s played in front of the home town crowd thus far.

The bottom line: The Redskins feature one of the best passing attacks in the game, but we think the unit will struggle on the road in this hostile environment. It’s a big game for both teams, as each will essentially need to win-out to have any shot at a playoff berth. We’re expecting this intense focus and determination to lend itself to a classic lower-scoring defensive battle. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the New York Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 16 against teams with winning records and in 17 of its last 29 games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last seven as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points and in seven of its last 11 non-conference contests.

The bottom line: With Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger going head-to-head, we’re expecting a classic shootout as each of these veteran pivots will be given the green light to air it out today. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between Buffalo and Oakland.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last six road games as an underdog of three points or less and in 16 of its last 23 as an underdog overall, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight games played in the month of December.

The bottom line: This is a big game for Buffalo, which can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet.” We can expect the visitors to try and manage this one while on offense, so as to limit the time that Derek Carr and company have on the field of play. All signs point to this one sneaking UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in its last four after two or more consecutive losses and in eight of its last 14 against the division, while Baltimore has seen the total go OVER in four of six as a favorite this season and in all three against the division.

The bottom line: The Bengals may be down their top receiver and a main RB, but Andy Dalton and company won’t be going down without a fight. The Ravens can smell the blood in the water and will look to bounce back today after consecutive road defeats. We’re expecting this massive sense of competition to push this one OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the LA Rams and the New Orleans Saints.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while New Orleans has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last ten after two or more consecutive losses.

The bottom line: These are two teams desperate for a victory and we’re expecting each to open up the playbook and for this total to sneak OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. 

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the New York Giants and the Cleveland Browns.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

As note that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six road games this year when the total is set between 42.5 points and 45 points, while Cleveland has seen the total go OVER in three of its last four off a loss against a division rival.

The bottom line: This is a dangerous spot for the Giants and we’re expecting the hungry/humbled home side to push the pace from start to finish, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts.

REASONING: We played this one early and got 53.5. The total has since dropped to around 48 after it was learned that Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck was sidelined in the concussion protocol. If you were unable to get down before the line move, don’t worry, we still love this play. And for obvious reasons. When Luck went down last year, Matt Hasselbeck filled in seamlessly as he was in his third season as the team’s backup QB. Scott Tolzien was just signed in March and has never taken a regular-season snap for the Colts. He also saw limited time in the preseason and didn’t look overly impressive anyways. The home side is going to have to fall back on its run game today to take the pressure of Tolzien. And we’re now expecting Pittsburgh to try and “manage” this one while on offense. Note that the Steelers have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of five on the road this year, while the Colts have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last six at home. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Washignton Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys.

REASONING: We jumped on this line early and got 48.5 and its since gone as high as 51.5 in some places. Regardless, we think these two normally high-scoring teams will have a bit of a letdown on the short week and on the national stage. Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott are leaders of two of the best offenses in the league. Neither team is extremely adept on the defensive end either. Washington plays with revenge today though after falling 27-23 in the first matchup from Landover. As primarily a “situationally based” handicapping service, these are exactly the types of matchups that we’re on the look out for. And from an O/U trend based stand point, they simply don’t get much stronger than this as the Redskins have seen the total go UNDER the number in two of three this year after two or more consecutive SU wins and in two of three away from friendly confines, while Dallas has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU wins and in 12 of its last 20 in front of the home town crowd. We’re expecting an all out war on Thursday afternoon, where field position becomes paramount for success. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet,” play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions.

REASONING: These division rivals are both in the hunt for a playoff spot and enter into this one with idential records, each going 6-4 SU/ATS and 4-6 O/U. Minnesota comes in off 30-24 win over Arizona this past weekend, while the Lions have now won two in a row and five of their last six after holding on for a 26-19 victory over the Jaguars at home. When these teams played on November 6th, Detroit scored the 22-16 OT victory. Suffice it to say, we’re expecting a much higher-scoring affair this time around. Last week Vikes’ QB Sam Bradford was 20 of 28 for 169 yards and a TD. Defense and special teams for Minnesota would also both go on to score TD’s. So far the Vikes are third defensively and last in the offensive department. Detroit keeps finding ways to win, as note that it’s been down in all ten games this year in the fourth quarter. TE Eric Ebron had three passes for 70 yards and a TD last week. QB Matt Stafford has 18 TD’s and five picks with a 101.2 QB rating overall this season. Detroit so far ranks 25th in total offense and 19th on the defensive end. It’s important to note though that Minnesota has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Detroit has seen the total go OVER in its last three “Thursday” contests and in four of its last six as a home fav of three points or less. This one is just a little bit low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between the Houston Texans and the Oakland Raiders.

REASONING: A couple of the league’s top teams collide on Monday night, this one though is being played in Mexico. Houston is 6-3 and Oakland is 7-2. The Raiders have been getting fantastic play on both sides of the ball and have had a week off after beating the Broncos. The Texans come to town off a 24-21 win over the lowly Jaguars last Sunday. Houston QB Brock Osweiler had two TD’s, but only 99 yards total passing on 14 of 27. The Texans have beaten up on lesser competition, but are just 2-3 against clubs with winning records this year. Will rest lead to rust for Oakland? That’s the big question, so far Derek Carr and company have been up to the challenge almost every week, but we think this does set up as potentially dangerous spot for the Raiders. The extra week off, combined with the out of country venue adds up to some major off field distractions that the previously well-oiled unit didn’t have to worry about. In the win over the Broncos, it wasn’t Carr that won the game, as he threw for only 184 yards, but rather the Raiders’ strong run game which outrushed Denver 218-33. We’re expecting to see a heavy dose of Latavius Murray, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard this evening. Note that Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories and in six of its last ten off a win against a division rival, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in two of its last three off a win against a division rival. When taking into account all of the above info, we do indeed feel this number is just a little bit high. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Washington Redskins.

REASONING: Green Bay is 4-5 and many are wondering if QB Aaron Rodgers’ personal problems are disrupting his on field play. Rodgers has looked decent at times this year, but also very pedestrian in others. His run game has been non-existent though, so we’re expecting the visitors put an added emphasis in establishing the ground attack this evening. Someone has to step up and alleviate some of the pressure off Rodgers, so there’s no question in our minds that this will have to be Green Bay’s game-plan coming in. James Starks had 33 yards on seven carries after returning from injury last week, but with that awkward outing out of the way, expect the veteran to be more productive in his second try. Washington comes in off a satisfying victory over the Vikes, not allowing Minnesota to score a single point over the final 30 minutes of play. The Redskins did engineer four scoring drives in the second half, all which resulted in field goals though. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Washington has seen the total go UNDER in two of its last three against teams with losing records. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Tennessee Titans and the Indianapolis Colts.

REASONING: Indianpolis won the first game between these teams back on October 30th, leaving Nashville with a 34-26 victory. This time around we’re expecting more of a defensive battle. Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 353 yards and three scores, while counterpart Marcus Mariota had 232 yards and two TD’s. After starting the year 1-3, the Titans are now 4-2 their last six. Last week Tennessee scored 47 points in its 22 point win over the struggling Packers. It was the most points the Titans had scored since 2009 and suffice it to say, we’re expecting a letdown from the unit this week. Like Tennessee, Indianapolis struggled early but has looked better of late, winner of two of its last three and entering this out of its bye. The Colts sit just two games behind Houston for the division lead with seven games left to go, so there’s still plenty of time to make a run at the title, but first things first. Note that the Titans have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four played on “field turf,” while the Colts have seen the total go UNDER in 12 of their last 20 in front of the home town crowd. We’re expecting these division rivals to slug it out and for this one to indeed sneak UNDER the number at the end of the afternoon.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings.

REASONING: Arizona was the highest scoring team in the league last year and with Carson Palmer successfully returning from injury, the team was supposed to have picked up right where it left off entering the 2016/17 campaign. Minnesota lost offensive stars Adrian Peterson and Teddy Bridgewater, but still managed to get out to a 5-0 start. The Cards simply haven’t lived up to expectations, while Minnesota is now in a free fall, having lost four straight. Clearly both teams are not where they’d hoped to be at this point of the season and we think this one all adds up to a perfect “situation” to exploit. So far each has seen the Over/Under go 3-6 on the year. So while each has struggled to put points on the board, we believe that the stage is now set for a more wide open affair as these two desperate teams open up the playbook and push the pace from start to finish. It’s a big game for both, as a victory would keep their respective seasons alive in the hunt for a playoff spot, while a loss will almost assuredly spell doom. This play is not about the contestants on the field of play, but about the “situation.” Also note that Arizona has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in 12 of its last 20 on the road, including in all three this year, while Minnesota has seen the total go OVER in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals.

REASONING: Here are two more teams which sit on the cusp as we enter the half way point of the season, with Buffalo at 4-5 and the Bengals at 3-5-1. A win will help these teams’ chances for a wild card spot, while a loss will likely mean looking ahead to next season. Unlike the Cards and the Vikes though, we’re expecting much more of a defensive battle today as these two desperate sides fight it for an elusive victory. Buffalo enters rested after its bye week, losing 32-25 to Seattle in Week 9, while Cincinnati comes in off a crushing 21-20 road loss to the Giants. The bottom line is, these two offenses have struggled with consistency all year for the most part, but the defensive units have been solid. Note that Buffalo concededs 22.6 PPG, ranked 13th overall, while Cincinnait allows 23.3, ranked 18th. And note that the Bills have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five as a road dog of three points or less, while the Bengals have seen the total go UNDER in seven of their last 11 home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the New York Giants.

REASONING: These are two of the better passing teams, with Andy Dalton under center for Cincinnati and Eli Manning taking snaps for New York. Cinncy has the fourth-ranked passing attack, while the Giants own the sixth. These are also two bad defenses, as the Bengals are ranked 19th in scoring defense, while New York is 23rd overall. The runs games have been polar opposites though, with the Bengals getting consistent production from their star duo, while the Giants rank last in the entire league at only 68.2 YPG. New York will be out to establish its run game tonight though as it looks to test a Bengals run defense which so far has allowed an average of 116.1 YPG. Cincinnati’s strength on defense is its pass rush as well, having already produced 25 sacks, so expect Manning to run a lot of shorter crossing routes (to get the ball out of his hands as fast as possible), while also leaning heavily on his run game as well to keep the Bengals honest. I think Cincinnati will be doing everything it can on offense to keep Manning and company off the field for as long as possible. Both teams are going to be putting an added emphasis on establishing the run game tonight. Note that Cincinnati has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last ten games played in the month of November and in six of its last ten non-conference contests, while New York has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last six off a win against a division rival. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the San Francsico 49ers and the Arizona Cardinals.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS trends:

As note that San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 15 against the division and in five of its last eight against teams with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go UNDER in 15 of its last 22 at home (including in all five this year) and in nine of its last 15 against the division.

Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS trends:

As note that Dallas has seen the total go OVER in two of its last three when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5, while Pittsburgh has seen the total sail above the posted number in six of its last ten non-conference games and in ten of its last 17 against teams with winning records.

Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the San Diego Chargers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS trends:

As note that Miami has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 18 on the road (including in two of three this year) and in 15 of its last 25 road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points, while San Diego has seen the total go UNDER in its last five against the AFC East.

Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Tennessee Titans.

REASONING: Tennessee is just 4-5 on the year, but it’s been putting up a good fight almost every week. In fact, it’s been a shootout almost every single time the team has stepped on the field, with seven of its nine games having gone OVER the number, including in six straight. But at 4-4, clealry the Packers are not where they’d hoped they’d be at this point of the season, with many pundits picking the team to come out on top of the NFC. This is a big game for both sides, one which could set the tone for the remainder of the year and as such, we’re expecting more of a “chess match,” than a “shootout.” Tennessee can ill afford to let this one go either with back-to-back tough road games at Indianapolis and Chicago respectively before its bye week. And for Green Bay, it will need to set the tone this afternoon, with three straight away from friendly confines on deck, with games at Washington and Philadelphia respectively. From a situational/motivational and scheduling stand point, this one does indeed set up perfectly for a lower-scoring affair. Green Bay’s offense is struggling and you have to look no further than QB Aaron Rodgers, who hasn’t looked like himself over the last month and a half. We’ll caution in reading too much into the Titan’s recent turnaround, as vicotries have come against lightweights, Miami, Cleveland and Jacksonville. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 14 against teams with losing records and in three of its last four after two or more consecutive losses, while Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last ten non-conference games. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Carolina Panthers.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant Over/Under ATS trends:

As note that Kansas City has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last six road games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points, while Carolina has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last 11 home games with a total between 42.5 and 45 points and in ten of its last 11 against teams with winning records. 

Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS trends:

As note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in its last three as a road fav of three points or less and in four of its last five against the NFC East, while Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last 11 following a divisional contest.

Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Seattle Seahawks.

REASONING: Buffalo has turned into a pretty good defensive team this season, although it comes in off a blowout loss at home to the Patriots. The Seahawks have always had a great defense and that’s once again been the case again this season, but it’s been the Seattle offense which continues to come up short. The Bills can empathize, as their offense also stalled last weekend. All of that said, we think these two under-performing offensive units finally show up tonight and put up just enough combined production to push this one OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch. Russell Wilson will be especially motivated tonight as Seattle has posted just one offensive TD in its last nine quarters, most recently a 25-20 setback to the Saints on Sunday. Wilson has been plagued by several injuries this year, but apparently is looking a lot better this week: "He's getting better," head coach Pete Carroll said. "I'm really fired up about that and we're going to keep progressing as he is able and do what we can to get back to the kind of mix that we like." With injuries to main WR Samy Watkins, the Bills went out and signed previously retired Percy Harvin: "Percy is a guy that worked so hard," Buffalo coach Rex Ryan said. "It's either full speed (or nothing), and sometimes you try to back him down a little bit, but that's why last year he was so frustrated that he wasn't able to contribute more to our team. He just needed some time away from the game to get healed up. So hopefully we catch lightning in a bottle so to speak and Percy is back to himself." Note that Buffalo has seen the total go OVER the number in all three non-conference games this year, while Seattle has seen the total go OVER in 12 of its last 21 at home, including in two of three this season. We’re expecting each side to push the pace and for this one to fly OVER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Tennessee Titans and the San Diego Chargers.

REASONING: Both teams have seen the total go OVER the number in six of eight games this year, but we think the conditions are now right for more of a lower-scoring defensive battle in this particular matchup. Tennessee has won two of its last three with recent victories over Miami, Cleveland and Jacksonville, while San Diego looks to bounce back after a 27-19 loss to Denver last weekend. The Titans have been playing “over their heads,” as they’ve scored at least 26 points in four consecutive games for the first time in 13 years. QB Marcus Mariota has gotten progressively better and he’s been the beneficiary of a strong run game, last week DeMarco Murray has 123 yards and a major score off 21 carries. San Diego will also be leaning heavily on its star RB today, last week Melvin Gordon had 111 yards against a tough Broncos’ line. Note that Tennessee has seen the total go UNDER the number in both games that it’s played this year off a win against a conference rival and in ten of its last 17 as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while San Diego has seen the total go UNDER in six of its last ten home games when the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points. We’re banking on each side coming out with a concerted plan to establish the run game throughout, a factor which will ultimatley help in pushing this number UNDER the number once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Carolina Panthers and the LA Rams.

REASONING: We’re expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle between two teams which remain in the hunt for their division titles. Carolina is just 2-5 and LA is just 3-4, but both are still very in the mix for top spot in their respective divisions. The Panthers snapped a four-game slide with a 30-20 win over Arizona last week, while the Rams enjoyed their bye after a 17-10 setback in London two weeks ago. Carolina’s offense has been pretty good this year, but the difference between 2016/17 and last season is clearly on the defensive side of the ball. QB Cam Newton though has just eight TD’s and six INT’s on the year. RB Jon Stewart was a bright spot last week, he had 95 yards rushing and two TD’s over the Cardinals. Carolina would also hold Arizona to just 24 rushing yards and that unit is going to be put to the test against Rams’ star RB Todd Gurley. Rams’ QB Case Keenum has eight TD’s and ten picks so far. Gurley has struggled this year, with 403 yards and three scores, but he’ll look to get untracked today against a Carolina front that’s been consistently inconsistent all season. LA looked good defensively in the loss in London, allowing just 232 total yards. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.

REASONING: Whether Ben Roethlisberger plays for the Steelers or not, we think these two very capable offenses will combine to send this one well above the posted number. Both teams are focused and refreshed, as each comes out of its bye week. Baltimore will be especailly hungry here, after winning its first three, it went into its bye having lost four straight. Last time out Pittsburgh dropped a 27-16 decision to the Patriots. Backup QB Landry Jones and the Steelers were competitive against New England, he’d finish going 29 of 47 for 281 yards. WR Antonio Brown had seven catches for 107 yards and note that Pittsburgh did end up winning the overall yardage battle, 375-362. The Ravens sit only one game behind the first-place Steelers in the AFC North, so to say this is a big game would be a big understatement. Note that Baltimore’s four losses this year have come by a combined 19 points. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER the number in its last two games following its bye week, while Baltimore has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last 12 against teams with winning records. We’re expecting each team to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to easily fly OVER the number as it comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

REASONING: The Falcons are the league’s highest scoring team with an average of almost 33 PPG. The Bucs have been poor defensively, which obviously would lead many to make a play on the OVER in this particular matchup. But we think the conditions are right for a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than another high-scoring “shootout.” We base most of our Over/Under picks on “situations” and trends and that’s the case with this one. Divisional contests are always the most important and in the wide open NFC South, this game clearly has big implications for both sides. Atlanta is playing with revenge after losing the season opener to Tampa Bay, a game which it had control of for the most part until a late collapse allowed the Bucs to successfully come from behind. ATL’s weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing Tampa’s middle of the road offense. It’s a short week and both teams are going to be “gassed” tonight, as Atlanta comes in off an OT win over the Packers, while Tampa was unable to hold on to a late lead in a disheartening setback in Oakland last week. Also note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa has seen the total go UNDER in 11 of its last 16 as an underdog in the same points range. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.

Setting the scene: Divisional contests are always the most heated and there’s no question that tonight’s game has all the makings of a classic. The 4-2 Philadelphia Eagles are in Dallas to take on the 5-1 Cowboys and we think that everything points to a shootout between Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott.

Philadelphia: The Eagles broke a two-game slide with a 21-10 win over the Vikings last week. Wentz’ line looked great as it would hold Minnesota’s top ranked defense “sackless” on the night. Wentz looked shaky early, throwing two INT’s, but the rookie would recover to throw for 138 yards a TD. 

Dallas: The Cowboys have won five in a row after dropping their season opener 20-19 to New York. Prescott has gone 125 of 182 for 1,486 yards, seven TD’s and just one INT this season. 

The bottom line: Note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in ten of its last 17 on the road (including in both games this year), in seven of its last 12 against the division and in four of its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Dallas has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 14 against the division and in its last two following its bye-week. We believe these division rivals will post just enough production to push this total OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts.

Setting the scene: Two teams hungry for more wins collide on Sunday afternoon and we think all signs point to more of a “chess match,” than a “track meet” today. KC has won two straight, most recently over the Saints, while Indy has alternated wins and losses over the past six weeks, most recently coming off a 34-26 victory over Tennessee last Sunday.

Kansas City: The Chiefs lost 43-14 to the Steelers and then went into their bye week. KC has responded with two straight victories, spurred by tough defensive play, having allowed just 31 points in that span, including just 21 to the Saints last weekend (New Orleans was the highest scoring team at the time and was held to over ten points less than its average). 

Indianapolis: The Colts needed a patchwork offense to beat the Titans last weekend, as they entered with seven injured players. Indy has played seven games this year and the total has gone OVER the number in six of those, including in four straight. But with a tough game in Green Bay next weekend, followed with their bye the following Sunday, we think injuries and scheduling finally catch up to the home side today.

The bottom line: Note that Kansas City has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 14 after two or more consecutive SU wins and in three of its last four against the AFC South, while Indianapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last ten off a win against a division rival. This one sneaks UNDER the posted number.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers.

Setting the scene: The Cards are 3-3-1 after seven weeks, while Carolina sits at 1-5. It’s safe to say that both teams will be hungry for a victory today and we believe this immense competition will translate into some production on the field.

Arizona: The Cards are coming off a weird 6-6 tie with the Seahawks and will be looking to get their passing attack kicked into top gear against the Panthers’ abysmal secondary. RB David Johnson was a bright spot, going for 113 yards on 33 carries. So far he has 681 rushing yards and eight TD’s

Carolina: It comes out of its bye week with something prove as it looks to break a four-game losing streak. QB Cam Newton hasn’t been horrible though, it’s been his defense. Newton has eight TD passes, six INT’s as well as three more rushing scores through six games. Note that over his final ten games last year, Newton threw for 26 TD’s and only three picks. The offense averages 26.8 PPG, but the defense has been conceding 29.3 PPG thus far.

The bottom line: Note that Arizona has seen the total go OVER the number in its last four road games against teams with losing home records, while Carolina has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of its last 21 against the NFC. The Panthers will need to sweep the board if they have any shot at making the playoffs again this year, so expect Newton and company to push the pace from start to finish. The Cardinals’ offense has struggled in recent weeks, but the unit catches a big break in facing this inept Carolina defense. All signs point to this one going OVER the number as the game comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans.

Reasoning: These struggling divison foes get ready to play on the short-week and each is desperate for a victory. Neither has been very good on the defensive end, with Jacksonville allowing an average of 26.7 PPG and Tennessee conceding 23 PPG, but they’ve also both been horrible on the offensive side, with the Jags averaging 19.5 PPG (ranked 25th) and the Titans posting 20.9 PPG. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has played better than Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, but he’s also been the beneficiariy of one of the better run games, as Titans’ RB DeMarco Murray had 107 yards and a TD last week and now has 633 yards with four TD’s overall, ranking him third in the league. Note that Jacksonville has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Tennessee has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last ten following a divisional contest. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Houston Texans and the Denver Broncos. 

REASONING: Houston upset Indianapolis 26-23 in OT last week. The Texans erased a 14 point deficit with less than three minutes to play to force the extra quarter. It was a big emotional win over a division rival, setting the visitors up perfectly for a letdown this week. Houston’s offense is bad, it averages just 18 PPG, ranked 31st in the NFL. If ever Denver was going to be “up” to play an opponent, it would surely be against Houston and its QB Brock Osweiler, who left the Broncos in the offseason. Denver has lost two straight and will be in a foul mood tonight and we’re expecting its Super Bowl winning defense to be on top form. Note that the Broncos allow an average of 18 PPG, ranked seventh overall. But the reason Denver has dropped two in a row has not been because of its defensive play, but rather its been because of the struggling offense, which could only post 13 points against a poor Chargers defense last week. Trevor Siemian returned from injury and was unspectacular, finishing with 230 yards and a TD. Houston’s defense has been its strength, allowing an average of just 21.2 PPG, ranked 12th overall. Note that Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of its last 14 against teams with winning records, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 following a divisional contest. Neither of these QB’s can produce unless his run game is “firing on all cylinders,” so each side will be looking to establish the ground attack throughout. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the New Orleans Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily off strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics: 

Note that New Orleans has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, in three of its last four off a win against a division rival and in two of its last three against teams with winning records, while Kansas City has seen the total dip below the number in 11 of its last 17 at home, in 15 of its last 24 when playing the role of favorite and in six of its last eight off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: It’s a tough stretch for New Orleans, which has won two straight and which has the Seahawks to contend with next Sunday. After beating the Chargers and enjoying their bye, the Saints then just beat rival Carolina 41-38 last week. Now the team transitions to the tough confines of Arrow Head Stadium. The stage is set for a classic “letdown” in our opinion. And the last thing that KC wants to do is get into a “track meet” with the Saints, so it’s safe to say that the Chiefs will be looking to slow this one down and control the tempo, keeping Drew Brees off the field of play for as long possible. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Washington Redskins and the Detroit Lions.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three “dome” games and in three of its last five when playing the role of underdog, while Detroit has seen the total go UNDER the number in 11 of its last 19 as a favorite (inc. in two of three this year) and in seven of its last ten after two or more consecutive SU victories.

The bottom line: The Redskins come in off four straight wins. With a date at Cincinnati next weekend, before its bye, Washington no doubt is playing through a very tough part of its schedule right now and we think the team is poised for a bit of a mental lapse this week. The Lions are off back-to-back victories and face a tough two game road trip after this contest, at Houston and Minnesota respectively, before then enjoying their bye-week. Washington has been getting the job done with its run game, so we can expect the visitors to continue that trend from start to finish today as well. Strong situational factors combined with strong O/U ATS statistics do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based primarily on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics: 

Note that Indianapolis has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three off a loss against a division rival, while Tennessee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 27 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points.

The bottom line: This game has massive implications for these division rivals, as Indianpolis is 2-4 right now, with Tennessee at 3-3. So as such, we’re expecting an all out war from start to finish, which we feel will result in more of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between the New York Jets and the Arizona Cardinals.

REASONING: We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

For this pick, we’re taking a plain old “common sense” approach. We think this is a great “situational” play. At 1-4, clearly the Jets are not where they’d hope they’d be at this point of the season. The same could be said of the Cardinals who are just 2-3. These were two good offenses last year, but so far both units have struggled with consistency. We think that finally changes tonight. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled with interceptions, but to be fair, many of those were backloaded when New York was playing catch-up, occurring at the end of games when the contest was already out of reach. 

Carson Palmer returns from a two game absence for the home side. Last year he was the general of the league’s No. 1 offense. The veteran has also struggled, but we think with the extra time off that Palmer will be a lot sharper tonight.

Also note that New York has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last ten non-conference games, while Arizona has seen the total sail above the posted number in nine of its last 15 against teams with losing records and in five of its last eight off a win against a division rival.

The bottom line: We’re expecting these teams to open up the playbook, to push the pace while on offense and for this total to indeed go OVER the posted number as it comes down the stretch.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans.

Setting the scene: Indianapolis comes in off a 29-23 win over Chicago last week, while Houston fell 31-13 to Minnesota. These division rivals split the series last year, with the Texans winning 16-10 in the last meeting.

The Colts: QB Andrew Luck is having a solid season, last week he threw for 322 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. He was sacked five times though. RB Frank Gore had his best game of the year, rushing for 75 yards off 14 carries. The offense is averaging 27.4 PPG. With the offense firing on all cylinders, it’s the defense which has been lacking, as the unit concedes an average of 29.6 PPG, ranked 30th overall. Indianpolis though has to be liking its chances against this struggling Houston offense tonight.

The Texans: Houston is becoming predictable on offense. QB Brock Osweiler has six TD’s to seven INT’s at this point. It’s not entirely his fault though, as the run game has been nearly non existent. So far Houston averages just 16.4 PPG, ranked 31st in the league. The defense hasn’t been at the same level as year’s past, but it’s still the teams’ strength, the unit is ranked 13th overall in conceding an average of 20.8 PPG. 

The bottom line: Divisional battles are always the most important. We think field position will play a big part in the final outcome of this “chess match” and look for this total to fall UNDER once it’s all said and done.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders.

Setting the scene: The 2-2 Chiefs are in Oakland to take on the 4-1 Ray-dahs on Sunday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting this total to sneak below the posted number.

The Chiefs: Kansas City comes to town off its bye after getting torched 43-14 to Pittsburgh the week before. So far the Chiefs have alternated wins and losses to open the season, winning twice at home and losing twice on the road. Expect the visitors to try and get RB Jamaal Charles more involved. He saw limited action in the game against the Steelers, but with an extra two weeks off to rest, he should be ready to take on a bigger work load. 

The Raiders: Oakland comes in off a high-scoring 34-31 victory over division rival San Diego. Derek Carr threw for 317 yards and two scores on 25 of 40 passing with one INT. So far the offense has averaged 28.4 PPG. Oakland though will be looking to turn things around defensively, as the unit has given up 27.4 per contest to this point.

The bottom line: Note that Kansas City has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 vs. the division and in its last two following its bye week, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four following a divisional contest. We think a determined KC teams tries to control the tempo and slow this one down, we’re playing the UNDER.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the New England Patriots.

Setting the scene: The Bengals are in urgent need of a win. A victory over the Patriots would go a long way for a team that’s struggled at times on both sides of the ball. Tom Brady is back for New England though and the Pats are ready to roll. When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting this total to have eclipsed the posted number. 

Cincinnati: The Bengals have dropped three of their last four including a 28-14 setback at Dallas last Sunday. It’s safe to say that the panic button has been pressed in Cincinnati, the team actually trailed 28-0 heading into the fourth quarter and scored a couple of meaningless TD’s in the final moments. So far the underachieving offense has yet to score more than 23 points through Week 5. 

New England: The Patriots are coming off a 33-13 thumping of the Browns last weekend. Brady was 28 of 40 for 406 yards and three TD’s and no INT’s. 

The bottom line: Note that the Bengals have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four against the AFC East and in six of their last eight games played in the month of October, while New England has seen the total go OVER in 13 of its last 22 in front of the home town crowd. This is a great situational play as we’re expecting Cincinnati to push the pace of this one from the outset. And we can rest assured that Brady will also be airing it out today. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Chicago Bears.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the San Diego Chargers and the Oakland Raiders.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based almost entirely on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that San Diego has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten against teams with winning records and in eight of its last 13 against division opponents, while Oakland has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five as a favorite.

The bottom line: These two teams are moving in opposite directions, as the Chargers are coming off back-to-back losses, while the Raiders enter off consecutive wins. We’re expecting this one to sneak UNDER this sky-high number.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Atlanta Falcons and the Denver Broncos.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based almost entirely on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last ten games played on a grass field, in six of its last nine against teams with winning records and in 13 of its last 18 on the road, while Denver has seen the total go UNDER in five of its last eight as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7 points range and in eight of its last ten non-conference contests.

The bottom line: Denver’s vaunted defense will have to be sharp today against Atlanta’s high-flying offense, but the conditions obviously favor the home side. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Washington Redskins and the Baltimore Ravens.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based almost entirely on strong and relevant O/U ATS statistics:

Note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in six of its last ten agasint teams with winning records, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the number in 11 of its last 18 at home and two of its last three as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

The bottom line: This has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” We’re expecting this one to sneak below the posted number.

AAA Sports

This is a 10 TOTAL BIG TIGER on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Setting the scene: The 2-1 Chiefs get ready to battle the 2-1 Steelers on Sunday Night football and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting these teams to have played to a higher-scoring shootout.

The Chiefs: Kansas City dismantled the the Jets 24-3 last week, intercepting a normally steady Ryan Fitzpatrick six times. It was just one of those games for the defense and while performances like those don’t come around too often, it was still impressive. QB Alex Smith though was also dominant, finishing 25 of 33 for 237 yards and a TD with no INT’s. RB Spencer Ware rushed for a season-high 75 yards off 20 carries. All eyes will be on Jamaal Charles this evening.

The Steelers: Pittsburgh looks to atone itself after last week’s 34-3 loss to Philadelphia. It will also be out for a little revenge tonight after Kansas City beat it 23-13 last year. Ben Roethlisbeger has 816 yards on the season so far. The home side gets a huge boost today with the return of RB Le’Veon Bell, who has now served his three game suspension. Combined with WR Antonio Brown, who was a bright spot last week with 12 catches for 140 yards, the Steelers’ offensive unit will be playing with a chip on its shoulder tonight. But the defense also took a step back last week, allowing rookie QB Carson Wentz to go for over 300 yards with two TD’s. So far the Steelers allow 21.7 PPG, ranking the team 19th overall. 

The bottom line: Le’Veon Bell adds an entirely different dimension to the Steelers offense and we think that the Chiefs’ defense is going to have its hands full this week (note, the Chargers put up 27 points on KC already this year). Smith has been solid for Kansas City and he’ll also have his opportunities against this lower-third defensive unit of Pittsburgh’s. Note that Kansas City has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go OVER in six of its last seven as a home favorite in the same points range. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers.

Dallas has won two straight, but San Fran has dropped two in a row. The Cowboys beat up on an injured Bears team lst week 31-17, while San Francisco fell 37-18 to Seattle. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott had his best game as pro, finishing with 19 of 24 passing for 248 yards and a score, while also running another one in himself. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 140 yards on 30 carries with the team going on to post 199 rushing yards overall. After beating the Rams 28-0 on opening night, San Francisco has predictably come back down to Earth as it was 0-6 on third down in the first half and most of its paltry 254 total yards came in the fourth frame when the game was already decided. A lone bright spot on the offense was Carlos Hyde, who had 103 yards on 21 carries to go along with two scores. Note that Dallas has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 14 after two more consecutive SU wins, while San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER in 14 of its last 17 at home and in eight of its last ten against teams with winning records. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Denver Broncos and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Broncos come to town as one of five undefeated teams left in the league. They’ve been getting the job done with an offense that pounds the ball and limits its mistakes and which feeds off its league leading defensive unit. Tampa comes off a deflating 31-24 loss to the Rams last week, a game which was hlated for two hours because of a lightning storm. Denver QB Trevor Siemian threw for 312 yards and four TD’s last week. His counterpart today is Jameis Winston, who set a career high in yards last week (405). Clearly the Bucs’ defense will be out to atone after letting an LA offense score five TD’s, after the unit had mustered just nine points through the first two games. Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last nine non-conference games, while Tampa has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 14 after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Cleveland Browns and the Washington Redskins.

Washington comes in banged up after its big 29-27 win at NFC East rival New York last week as LG Shaun Lauvao and center Kory Lichtensteiger left the game with injury. CB Bashaud Breeland and CB DeAngelo Hall also sustained injuries. The home side catches a break though in facing the 0-3 Browns, who are now down to their third string QB in Cody Kessler. Cleveland is set up for a letdown here after its heartbreaking 30-24 setback to the Dolphins last week, a contest which it could have won if not for a missed FG in the final moments of regulation. Note that Cleveland has seen the total in 11 of its last 18 on the road and in six of its last nine non-conference games, while Washington has seen the total go UNDER in two of its last three as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the UNDER between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons.

1-2 Carolina collides with 2-1 division rival Atlanta on Sunday afternoon and we think this one will sneak UNDER the number once it’s all said and done. Carolina comes off a 22-10 loss at home to the Vikes last week. Atlanta comes off a high-scoring blowout 45-32 win on Monday night over New Orleans, so it will be operating on the short week. However, if history is any precedence, then we can expect a lower-scoring defensive battle between these bitter foes, as Carolina would prevail 38-0 in the first game last year, while Atlanta held on for the 20-17 victory in the second. Carolina QB Cam Newton struggled behind a shaky offensive line last week and so far he’s thrown just five TD’s on the year to go along with five INT’s. Don’t read too much into Atlanta’s big performance against the inept Saints’ secondary as it was in fact the run game which stole the show, Devonta Freeman led the way with 152 yards on 14 carries. WR Julio Jones was shutdown, making just one catch off seven targets. Atlanta’s defense will now look to bounce back after getting torched by Brees. Ryan and company are about to face the best defense they’ve seen yet this year though, so we’re expecting the home side to have a much more difficult time moving the ball this weekend. Note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last 12 against the division, while Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in 13 of its last 15 against teams with losing records. Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Tenessee Titans and the Houston Texans.

These teams are quite similar in many respects. Both have struggling starting QB’s and offenses which have yet to find their respective grooves (both are averaging just 14 PPG through the first three games). Each though has a solid ground game. Are Marcus Mariota and Brock Osweiler as bad as their early season numbers would suggest? We think the answer is a resounding “no!” These are two guys that know how to play the game and we’re expecting a break out performance from each today. Note that the Titans have seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last 12 against the division, while the Texans have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last 12 in the same position. We’re looking for this one to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Setting the scene: Both teams are 1-2 SU, meaning they’ll be desperate for a victory. It’s a short-week and with little time to prepare and re-focus, we’re expecting a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” 

Miami: The Dolphins are very “lucky” to be at 1-2, as they blew an 11-point lead against the Browns last week and needed OT to pull away for the 30-24 win. Cleveland had a chance to end it in regulation, but the Browns would predictably miss it. QB Ryan Tannehill was 25 of 39 for 319 yards and three TDs, to go along with one INT. Note that he would have been under 300 yards passing and have just two TD’s if not for the extra frame. Tannehill has four INT’s so far this year. The Dolphins had success on the ground as well, with 115 total team yards. Defensively the team will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after the late letdown against Browns’ third string QB Cody Kessler.

Cincinnati: The Bengals defense will also be out to atone for a horrible performance last weekend, allowing Denver QB Trevor Siemian to throw four TD’s. Andy Dalton struggled against the Broncos ferocious defense, throwing for just 206 yards, zero TD’s and one INT. He was sacked four times. Dalton has been inconsistent over two games with just two major scores, with two INT’s. Note that he’s already been sacked 12 times this year. The run game finally got untracked though, as Jeremy Hill posted 97 yards and two TD’s. The run defense was good, holding the Broncos to just 52 total rushing yards.

The bottom line: Note that the Dolphins have seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of their last 17 on the road and 15 of their last 26 when playing with six or less days rest, while the Bengals have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their last four as a home fav in the 7 to 10 points range and in eight of their last ten against clubs with losing records. Play the UNDER.

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This is an 8* play on the OVER between the LA Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Setting the scene: The LA Rams have yet to score a TD, but are 1-1 to open the year. The Bucs started the 2016/17 campaign with an impressive come from behind victory over division rival Atlanta, before then laying an egg in Arizona last Sunday. These are two team’s with something to prove this weekend and we think this combined focus and determination will translate into production on the field.

The Rams: Somehow LA managed to hold Seattle to just six points and with three FG’s of its own, finished with the improbable 9-6 win. QB Case Keenum wasn’t horrible, finishing 18 of 30 for 239 yards. RB Todd Gurley looks to break out of his early season funk, last week he had only 51 yards rushing. 

The Buccaneers: Jameis Winston turned the ball over five times last week. He was 27 of 52 for 243 yards a TD. The week before he threw for 281 yards and four TD’s. Keep your eyes on Mike Evans, he has 169 yards receiving and two TD’s through the first two games. RB Doug Martin suffered a ham string injury and will be a game time decision, meaning that Winston is going to have the green light today to get the ball down the field. 

The bottom line: Note that LA has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Tampa has seen the total sail above the posted number in three of its last four home games with a total set between 38 1/2 and 42. All signs point to this one eclipsing the number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the OVER.

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This is an 8* play on the OVER between the Arizona Cardinals and the Buffalo Bills.

Setting the scene: Arizona is 1-1, losing to the Pats on opening Sunday Night Football, before then rebounding to smash the Bucs 40-7 last week. Both contests went UNDER the number. The Bills are 0-2 and enter this one with a “do-or-die” mentality. With road games at New England and across the country in LA upcoming, Rex Ryan and company are going to be forced to open up the playbook today to keep pace with the high-flying Cards.

Arizona: The Cards looked great against Tampa Bay last week, QB Carson Palmer threw for three TD’s and had 308 yards total. The defense also forced Jameis Winston into five turnovers. In the end Arizona would win the yardage battle 416-306. RB Chris Johnson led the attack on the ground, finishing with 54 yards off 16 carries and a major score. WR Larry Fitzgerald already has 14 catches for 162 yards and three TD’s this year. 

Buffalo: Offensive coordinator Greg Roman was let go after the 0-2 start, meaning that RB coach Anthony Lynn becomes the team’s fifth OC to serve under Ryan in the last six years. The defense looked like a mess in the loss against the Jets, allowing 493 yards and 28 first downs. QB Tyrod Taylor looked a lot better after a shaky opener, finishing with a career-high 297 yards and three touchdowns.

The bottom line: Note that Arizona has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six road games when the total is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while Buffalo has seen the total sail above the posted number in two of its last three at home. All signs point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears.

Setting the scene: On a cold blustery night in Chicago in early September, we think these offensively challenged clubs will play to a classic lower-scoring “chess match.”

The Eagles: Philadelphia and rookie QB Carson Wentz came away with a 29-10 win over the Browns in Week 1. The defense was excellent, holding Cleveland to 168 yards passing and 120 yards on the ground. Dominating the Browns’ suspect secondary is one thing, doing the same thing on the road at Soldier Field is quite another. Bears’ head coach John Fox is going to throw the kitchen sink at Wentz today.

The Bears: Chicago looked “ok” in its season opening loss to the talented Houston Texans on Sunday. QB Jay Cutler wasn’t particularly impressive though, finishing 16 of 29 for 216 yards, a TD and an INT. Note that Cutler was sacked five times and took 13 hits overall. Look for the home side to once again lean heavily on RB Jeremy Langford, who finished with 57 yards on 17 carries and a TD. Chicago’s defense catches a break obviously in facing the rookie Wentz.

The bottom line: Note that Philadelphia has interestingly seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last eight games played in the month of September, while Chicago has seen the total go UNDER the number in ten of its last 16 at home and in four of its last six when playing the role of favorite. Play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.

Setting the scene: Both teams come into this important divisional matchup sitting at 1-0. The Packers battled for a 27-23 road win at Jacksonville, while the Vikes started slow and finished strong in their 25-16 win over the Titans.

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers was 20 of 34 for 199 yards and two TD’s through the air, while also running for another one. Rodgers has struggled against the Vikes in the past, but we’re expecting that trend to end this evening. Keep your eyes on WR Jordy Nelson, who returned from injury last week to catch six passes for 32 yards and a major score. 

Minnesota: Sam Bradford steps in as starting QB in Week 2 after Shaun Hill did an adequate job managing the offense. The defense stepped up big though with two defensive TD’s. Bradford won’t be asked to do too much more than what Hill did, although we can expect to see a few more deep balls down the field this evening. 

The bottom line: We think Rodgers will be a man possessed today, looking to start the season off 2-0 on the road and grabbing the critical divisional victory, while also “breaking the curse” against Minnesota. Minnesota should only be better offensively with Bradford under center, and RB Adrian Peterson will be out to establish himself today as well. In our opinion, all the ingredients are in place for a higher-scoring shoot-out, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos.

Setting the scene: Indianapolis comes to town off a brutal 39-35 setback at home to Detroit in its opener, while Denver held on for a 21-20 win on Opening night over Carolina in the Super Bowl 50 rematch. We look for the home side to once again keep it simple today and to have Trevor Siemian simply “manage” the game, pound the ball on the ground and play their patented style of shutdown defense. We’re also expecting the visitors to come out with an extreme focus on the defensive side of the ball after last week’s disaster.

The Colts: The offense looked great (albeit against an atrocious Lions defense), posting the 35 points and committing zero turnovers. Clearly the unit is going to have a much more difficult time this week at Mile High and facing the league’s best defense though. 

The Broncos: Siemian was 18 of 26 for 178 yards, a TD and two INT’s last week. Siemian though benefitted greatly by the play of RB CJ Anderson, who had 90 yards and a TD off 20 carries. He also had a receiving TD. It’ll be simply be more of the same for the offense this week, limit mistakes, pound the ball and take advantage of the field position the defense gives it.

The bottom line: Are the Colts really as bad on the defensive side of the ball as what we saw in Week 1? The unit obviously catches a break this week, as Siemian isn’t going to be throwing balls all around the field like Matt Stafford was. Indianapolis will be playing with a chip on its shoulder as it looks to match pace with the hard-nosed Broncos. All signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.

Setting the scene: Both teams are coming off lower-scoring affairs. Miami wasn’t able to hold on to a late lead in Seattle, succumbing 12-10 to the Seahawks in the end, while the Pats would hold on for a 23-21 win at Arizona last Sunday night. The last time these teams played, the total also went UNDER the number. Despite all of the lower-scoring games, we think the conditions are now finally right for a bit of a shootout and we expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

Miami: It was supposed to be a new up-tempo offense for the Dolphins this year, but Seattle’s tough defensive play shutdown the unit last week (the score was 6-3 heading into the fourth quarter). In the end Miami only produced 222 yards of offense, while giving up 352. 

New England: Jimmy Garoppolo looked great against a tough Arizona defense and will look to kick this Dolphins’ unit while its down. Garoppolo won’t have Gronk in the line-up, but that hardly mattered last week either. New England won the ground battle 106-102 and the overall yardage war as well, 363-344. WR Julien Edelman had seven catches for 66 yards, but was held out of the endzone. Keep your eyes on the explosive receiver today though.

The bottom line: Note that the Dolphins have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 7 points, while the Patriots have seen the total go OVER the posted number in 17 of their last 27 vs. conference opponents and in seven of their last 12 vs. the division. Everything points one way, but we’re going the other. The Dolphins will be opening up the playbook today on the offensive side of the ball after the clunker in Week 1. These are two QB’s with something to prove, all signs point to this one sneaking OVER late.

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This is an 8* SPECIAL on the OVER between the New York Jets and the Buffalo Bills.

Setting the scene: If you’re like us, you are waiting on Sunday afternoon for the following week’s College Football lines to come out. While the NFL games are going on, we’re also already working ahead on our NCAAF card for the following week. Sometimes it pays to play a line right away, other times it works against you. In this case we grabbed the OVER 42 and that number has since dropped to 40 at some places. But regardless, we still really like this play and are expecting these two offensively challenged teams to put up just enough production for this one to sneak above the total.

The Jets: New York lost a tough 23-22 opener at home to Cincinnati. The Bengals kicked a game winning FG with under a minute to play. The Jets looked good offensively, but the unit failed to convert many red zone drives into touchdowns. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was 19 of 35 for 189 yards and two major scores to one INT. Matt Forte was strong with 96 yards on 22 carries, while also making five receptions for 59 yards in the air. The run defense was decent, but the secondary was poor as AJ Green burned them several times. 

The Bills: Buffalo looked bad in its 13-7 Week 1 loss to the Ravens. The offense especially. But some credit has to be given to the Ravens smothering defensive play. With that awkward first game out of the way, we’re definitely expecting a much better game out of QB Tyrod Taylor and company. Taylor finished with just 111 yards and no touchdowns. RB LeSean McCoy had just 58 yards on 16 carries. The defense was the bright spot, allowing just the single touchdown to the offensively inept Ravens.

The bottom line: These teams of course played twice last year and the Bills won 22-17 in both meetings. Many are likely going to be playing the UNDER, even after the adjusted line movement, but we think the situation will finally lend itself to a more wide open and higher-scoring shootout. Rex Ryan’s head is on the chopping block this year and he’ll be expected to have his team perform in its home opener. We expect both sides to open up the playbook tonight, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER between the LA Rams and the San Francisco 49ers.

We’ve already talked about these team’s strengths and weaknesses in our play on the 49ers, and as mentioned in that analysis, both of these clubs come in with more questions than answers on the offensive side of the ball.

LA has big question marks at QB with Case Keenum going, so expect to see a heavy dose of RB Todd Gurley throughout this game. San Francisco is expected to also run the ball a lot as to alleviate pressure from Blaine Gabbert.

The Rams strength lies on the defensive side of the ball. San Francisco is expected to be better on the defensive side of the ball after a poor season last year. 

Note that the Rams averaged just 17.9 PPG last year while San Fran averaged just 14.9

Also note that the UNDER is 6-1 in LA’s last seven overall, while San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER in four of their last five against the Rams.

Play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the New England Patriots and the Arizona Cardinals.

Setting the scene: I played this total quite early (before the announcement that TE Rob Gronkowski would not be playing in this one) and got 48. The number has since dropped, but regardless, we still love this selection as we’re expecting New England’s Top 10 defensive unit to step up in this situation and slow down this high-powered Cards offense.

New England: What more can be said about the Pats at this point which hasn’t been said by every “talking head” in the nation. If you watch the NFL on any level, then you’re surely up to speed with everything that’s going on with New England. Brady is out and Garoppolo is in. Gronk won’t be making the trip to the desert, so the Pats are going to be leaning heavily on their defense to keep them in this one today. 

Arizona: Carson Palmer put together the finest campaign of his career last year. Can the veteran duplicate that performance this season? It’s hard to imagine. Peyton Manning had one monster year in Denver before steadily regressing after that and all signs point to a similar situation (possibly) happening in Arizona. Palmer has plenty of weapons to throw to and the Cards’ defense is also expected to be in the Top 10 again.

The bottom line: Garropolo will only be asked to “manage” this game as the Pats will be using the run to set up the pass. We expect a similar game plan from the home side as well. This number is just a little bit high, play the UNDER.

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This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos.

Sometimes keeping it simple is the best way to handicap a game and that's the approach we're taking in Super Bowl 50. This top rated 10* SUPER TOTAL selection is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors.

Best defensive units: The numbers don't lie, these teams would both finish among the league leaders on the defensive side of the ball. The Cardinals also had a great defensive unit, but it's certainly not the same calibre as the Broncos, who we feel will be able to get into the backfield and disrupt Cam Newton's rhythm throughout this game. Peyton Manning is clearly not the QB he once used to be, so there will be no big bombs down field in this one. Instead the Broncos will be running the ball and focusing on short-crossing routes.

Rest leads to rust: We've always been of the mindset that extended time off between games invariably favors the defense. We believe each team will come out a bit flat footed to start this one on the offensive side of the ball.

The bottom line: ATS statistics are pretty much useless in games like this and we won't bore you with a bunch of individual player matchups or coaching schemes, which we feel are also irrelevant in this situation. As stated off the top, we're keeping it simple in Super Bowl 50 and feel that the two factors listed above will ultimately result in a lower-scoring UNDER once the final whistle sounds.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Arizona Cardinals and the Carolina Panthers.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

A full four quarter effort: It’s hard to imagine the Panthers jumping out to such an incredible lead against the Cards as they did vs. the Seahawks in the divisional round last week. And certainly the home side will be out to atone for its second half “brain fart,” almost letting the Seahawks claw all the way back from a 31-0 halftime deficit (note that the Panthers have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of their last seven home games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points).

Deceivingly good defensive play: The Cardinals high-flying offense for the most part overshadowed what turned out to be one of the league’s toughest defensive units, one which finished fifth overall in allowing less than 20 points per game (note that Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of six this year vs. teams with winning records). Despite the tough second half, the Panthers looked good against Seattle overall defensively, they forced Russell Wilson to throw two INT’s and it was a unit which finished sixth in sacks during the regular season.

If history is any precedence: Then all signs point to a low-scoring battle rather than a shootout, Carolina would knock off the Cardinals 27-16 in last season’s wildcard round.

Strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Arizona has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 21 when playing the role of underdog, while Carolina has seen the total stay below the posted number in 13 of its last 22 with a spread between +3 to -3.

The bottom line: Each team will be looking to control the clock while on offense so as to keep its counterpart off the field of play. This one has all the makings of a “chess match,” where field position will likely play a big part in the final score. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

The RB's are back, but…: Marshawn Lynch is back for the Seahawks, but he's hardly the focal point of this pass-heavy offense which is led by QB Russell Wilson and WR Doug Baldwin. Baldwin has 14 TD passes this year and all but two have come after Week 11. The Panthers welcome RB Jonathan Stewart, which makes QB Cam Newton even more dangerous, along with TE Greg Olsen; Newton threw 35 TD passes during the season, 20 of those 35 scores came at home.

ATS statistics: Note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in five of seven vs. teams with winning records this year and in five of its last eight playoff contests, while Carolina has seen the total sail above the posted number in five of seven at home this season and in eight of 13 when playing the role of favorite.

The bottom line: The two most dynamic men on the field of play today are Wilson and Newton and there's no question in our minds that this one does indeed setup as a classic shootout between these two gunslingers. Whoever has the ball last is likely going to win this one and in our professional opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the New England Patriots.

Both teams are banged up on the offensive side of the ball (Patriots are worrying about the health of TE Rob Gronkowski, while the Chiefs' top receiver Jeremy Maclin has sprained ankle), but the two most important men on the field are operating at 100% capacity as QB's Alex Smith and Tom Brady are set to square off in this AFC divisional matchup. Kansas City has ripped off 11 straight victories and looked downright dominant against the Texans last week. Houston is good on defense, while the Patriots are pretty mediocre. New England is 2-4 since a 10-0 start and Smith and company have to be pumped at a shot at exposing the home side even further. A bye-week couldn't come at a better time for the Pats though, they looked terrible in their loss in their regular season finale with the Dolphins, but the team definitely gets a big boost with the expected return of WR Julian Edelman. True Edelman hasn't played in over six weeks, but regardless, he demands attention from the Chiefs opportunistic defense and makes it stay honest. Note that Kansas City has seen the total go OVER the number in five of eight on the road this year and in both games in which it was an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New England has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of its last six with two weeks of rest and in five of six this season vs. teams with winning records. We look for this one to be a classic QB battle and for this total to sail OVER the posted number as the game comes down the stretch.

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This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

Andy Reid and Alex Smith: The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.

Brian Hoyer: Tom Brady's ex-back-up has had a tumultuous year, getting benched in the third quarter of Game 1, while also getting injured a few times. At one point in the middle of the season though he would go 4-1 and throw ten TD's and only three picks. Hoyer clearly has the trust of his team now and the Texans would rally down the stretch without their No. 1 RB as well (Arian Foster was injured early, lost for the season).

Over/Under ATS statistics: Despite these being a couple of the better defensive clubs in the league, note that this is in fact a position in which each has shown a penchant to play to the higher number as KC has seen the total go OVER the posted number in five of seven road games this season, while Houston has seen the total sail above the posted number in six of nine as an underdog and in eight of its last 14 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.

The bottom line: The winner of this game will be the one that can move the ball and we definitely expect each team to come out firing, in our professional opinion, this number is indeed a little low. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS stats: note that Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in five of seven on the road this year and in three of four vs. division opponents, while Atlanta has seen the total sail above the posted number in eight of its last 14 when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and in six of its last ten home games when the total in the contest is set between 45.5 and 49 points. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.

While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based on strong and relevant ATS stats, as well as a slew of injuries to key players: note that Pittsburgh is without the services of RB Le'Veon Bell still, while Baltimore has to play without starting QB Joe Flacco, starting RB Justin Forsett and top WR Steve Smith. And note that the Steelers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of four vs. division opponents this year and in four of six on the road, while Baltimore has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of six as an underdog this season and in three of four vs. teams with winning records. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the St. Louis Rams.

Tampa still has a mathematical shot at making the playoffs, so it'll be all hands on deck today as the team looks to open up the playbook and try to bury the floundering home side early. St. Louis is just 5-8 SU and is already looking ahead to next season, but that said, clearly the Rams won't be rolling over today as both the coach's and players get ready to battle and to try and save their spot on the team moving forward. With each team desperate for a win, we look for this combined determination to translate into production on the field today. Bucs QB Jameis Winston has been sharp of late, the rookie has posted a highly respectable 97.5 QB rating over the past four weeks; note that Winston and WR's Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans will all have an opportunity to make some noise today vs. this middle of the pack Rams defensive unit. Tampa has been sharp against the run this year, but will obviously be tested by the home side's star RB in Todd Gurley, who will look to alleviate the pressure from a Rams passing attack which is clearly a weak point; that said however, it's important to note that St. Louis has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last eight home games when the total in the contest is set between 38.5 and 42 points. Also note that Tampa has seen the total sail above the posted number in three of five this year vs. teams with losing records and in four of five this season in all games where the total is set between 35.5 and 42 points. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the Philadelphia Eagles.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting this total to fall below the posted number. Both teams are battling for a playoff berth. Buffalo will once again be leaning heavily on RB LeSean McCoy, he'll be looking to make a statement against his former team; note that McCoy has 93 total touches over his last four games. Tyrod Taylor will have to be wary of a pumped up Eagles secondary which came up big against Tom Brady and the Patriots on the road last weekend. And Philadelphia is going to find it much harder to move the ball today as well, the Bills own the No. 16 road defense, allowing 115 rushing yards per game. Neither team can afford to make mistakes in this suddenly very important non-conference matchup, so with each putting an added emphasis on ball control and in establishing the run while on offense, there's no question that this one does indeed set up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout." Also note that Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of five on the road this year, while Philadelphia has seen the total fall below the posted number in five of eight as the favorite this season and in eight of its last 11 non-conference contests. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for this total to eclipse the posted number. Green Bay jumped out to a 6-0 start to the season, but the team has now lost four of its last five since its bye week. One of those losses included a listless Thanksgiving Day setback to these very Detroit Lions. Suffice it to say, after a couple of sub-par outings and because of the earlier loss to Detroit, we expect Packers QB' Aaron Rodgers to finally be on top of his game today. The offense is loaded with talent, but has been stalled the last few games. From a motivational stand point, they don't get much better for Green Bay and its clearly under-performing offensive unit. The Lions won't be rolling over and actually come into this contest as one of the hottest teams in the league after winning three straight. QB Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson and company are firing on all cylinders and will be pushing the pace of this game from the outset as they look to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in six of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and in three of its last four "dome" games, while Detroit has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of six at home this season and in two of its last three vs. teams with winning records. Play on the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the OVER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions.

Both teams are having disappointing seasons, but the difference between the two is that despite playing horrible, the Eagles still have a shot because of their weak division. After a 1-7 start, the Lions have now won two straight, QB Matt Stafford is on pace to tie a career-high with INT's, but he has none over the last two outings. And now Stafford and the ever improving offense get to go up against an Eagles defense that just allowed 45 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Philadelphia ranks 28th against the rush, so this is a big opportunity for the Lions run unit to put up some decent numbers. Stafford has been getting fantastic protection and will be able to take advantage of an Eagles' secondary that's prone to giving up the big play. But as mentioned off the top, Philadelphia still has a shot at a postseason berth, the team can't afford to drop anymore though obviously, it's put up or shut up for Chip Kelly and his vaunted offensive schemes. Detroit will surely have its hands full with the Eagles run unit today, Philadelphia ranks 11th in the league on the ground, while Detroit ranks 24th against it. And that's good news for probable starting QB Mark Sanchez, who had three INT's in last week's blowout loss. Detroit lacks playmakers on the backend, so Sanchez (or Bradford), will also have the green light to go deep today. Note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of its last 16 vs. teams with losing records and in its last three road games where the total is between 42.5 and 45.5 points. And note that Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 12 of its last 21 at home and in two of its last three home games where the total is between 42.5 and 45.5 points. These are two teams dedicated in getting their offenses untracked, in our professional opinion all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOOD BATH on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots.

In our professional opinion all signs point to a hard-hitting battle between these divisional foes and in a contest where we expect field position to ultimately determine the final score, we'll recommend a play on the UNDER in this one. The Patriots will be looking to control this one from the outset on offense, expect a lot of shorter crossing routes and a heavy dose of the run game after the unit lost No. 1 receiver Julian Edelman to injury last week. The last time time these team's met, New England would go on for the 40-32 victory in Buffalo back on September 20th, the Bills would score 19 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Buffalo now looks to play a more complete game this time around and to build off an impressive 22-17 victory over the Jets last week. After giving up 68 points over two previous games, the Bills have allowed just 34 over the last two; also note that Buffalo backs have combined for 358 rushing yards and four TD's over the past two games. The Pats will be looking to keep the unbeaten streak alive and will be extra motivated here after allowing the Bills to score those 19 points in the fourth quarter in the first meeting, making a blowout game seem a lot closer than it really was. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range and in five of its last eight off a win vs. a division rival, while New England has seen the total stay below the posted number in six of its last 11 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Play on the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The 6-3 Packers will look to slow down the surging 7-2 Vikings and take control of the division again after a lacklustre couple of weeks. That said, Minnesota can surely smell the blood in the water and will be looking to kick the visitors while they're down. The Vikes have won five straight behind the second best run unit in the entire league and an ever improving second-year QB in Teddy Bridgewater. Last week Adrian Peterson had 203 rushing yards and a score in his team's 30-14 win over Oakland, upping his total for the season to 961 yards. And that's bad news for a Packers defense which is ranked No. 23 against the run. But you can never count out the Packers obviously, QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-4 vs. the Vikes lifetime, completing 71.2 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards, 31 TD's to four INT's, and a 119.0 passer rating which is highest vs. any division rival. The Green Bay run unit, which has struggled of late, has a big opportunity to get untracked as well as the Vikes are just No. 15 in the league against the run. Both teams have something to prove today and we believe this will translate into production on the field; and note that the Packers have seen the total go OVER the number in 13 of their last 21 on the road, in seven of their last 11 as an underdog and in nine of their last 14 vs. division opponents, while Minnesota has seen the total sail above the posted number in nine of its last 15 vs. the division. In our professional opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports