|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|07-02-22||Montreal v. Saskatchewan -4.5||Top||20-41||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
It’s a quick turnaround for the teams here and a rematch from last week when Montreal picked up its first win of the season, in shocking fashion, with a 37-13 beatdown of Saskatchewan. Needless to say, I see things going a bit differently this time around.
The Als’ defense stepped up big last week by recording three interceptions and eight sacks. But that was at home and they were coming off a bye. There’s no rest advantage this week and the game is at Mosiac Stadium.
Saskatchewan has already recorded two home wins in 2022. They beat Hamilton and Edmonton by a total of 34 points.
Something that must be pointed out about last week is that total yardage was basically even.
The Roughriders are definitely the better team in this matchup and come from the much stronger division. I believe we’re getting an oddsmakers’ discount here because of last week’s result. Lay those points.
|08-17-19||Montreal v. Calgary -6.5||Top||40-34||Loss||-114||92 h 12 m||Show|
The set-up: After a slow start, the Stampeders can ill afford to take the foot off the gas for the rest of the season. Calgary is in the playoff mix and I think it’ll pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. A victory today and the Stamps are in a tie for first place in the division, but a loss and they could wind up all the way in fourth. Note that while covering only once in four games at home this year, Calgary is still 3-1 SU. And despite the Als being 9-2 ATS in their last 11, I definitely believe that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here.
The pick: The Alouettes are getting QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback this week, but one has to wonder how effective they’ll be after each sat out last weekend with injury? The Stamps have finally adjusted to QB Nick Arbuckle running the show, entering this one having gone 4-2 SU in their last six. I’m banking on Montreal finally taking a step back here vs. this determined home side. Lay the points.
Calgary Stampeders 10* play
|07-13-19||Montreal v. Ottawa -9||Top||36-19||Loss||-110||20 h 25 m||Show|
The set-up: The RedBlacks suffered a humbling 29-14 loss at home to the Blue Bombers last weekend and I believe they’ll take out their frustrations on the very contented Alouettes, who scored the 36-29 upset win at home over the Ti-Cats last time out. Montreal got 203 yards and three rushing TD’s from William Stanback last weekend, but I have a hard time seeing the RB producing the same effort here. Ottawa didn’t help itself last week either by posting 110 penalty yards on ten flags.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range, while Ottawa is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 vs. the division. The stage is set for a big bounce back performance for the RedBlacks. Lay the points.
10* COACH’S CLINIC on Ottawa.
|07-01-19||Toronto +11 v. Saskatchewan||Top||7-32||Loss||-110||60 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: Toronto won two in a row in the pre-season and then it had a Week 1 “bye.” Last weekend it lost its early momentum and looked flat in the embarrassing 64-14 home loss to the red hot Ti-Cats. With that awkward game out of the way, I believe the hungry visitors keep tonight’s contest much more competitive. Saskatchewan won’t be lacking for motivation either after back-to-back losses to open the 2019 campaign.
The pick: The Riders looked decent in their 44-41 loss at Ottawa, as Cody Fajardo was 27 of 34 in the setback. However, I think the home side gets caught “looking past” the lowly and desperate visiting side. Note as well that Toronto is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a loss by 40 points or more, while Saskatchewan is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 40 points or more in its previous outings. Grab the points.
|06-15-19||Winnipeg v. BC||Top||33-23||Loss||-104||15 h 9 m||Show|
The set-up: BC acquired the biggest free agent on the market in the offseason in QB Mike Reilly, who returns to his former team. Reilly signed a large four year contract and the Grey Cup Champion and ex MVP will be expected to step up quickly and pay immediate dividends. The Blue Bombers have fared well vs. the Lions ATS over the last few seasons, but QB Matt Nichols is coming off a poor 2018 in which he had just one three-hundred yard game. Nichols will be leaning heavily upon the CFL’s leading rusher Andrew Harris.
The pick: These teams are no strangers to each other obviously, but I think that Reilly is the difference maker on opening night. The Leo’s hit the road for three straight after this and I think they put the foot on the gas and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
BC Lions (Moneyline)
|11-18-18||Winnipeg v. Calgary -4.5||Top||14-22||Win||100||148 h 36 m||Show|
The set-up: The 11-8 Winnipeg Blue Bombers get ready to take on the 13-5 Calgary Stampeders in the CFL West Final and in my opinion, home field can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor/advantage for the Stamps. Winnipeg has won six of seven and QB Chris Streveler has a 29/18 TD/INT. Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell has 5,124 yards and a 35/14 TD/INT.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Calgary is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. Lay the points, play on the Stamps.
|11-11-18||BC +3 v. Hamilton||Top||8-48||Loss||-120||143 h 30 m||Show|
The set-up: BC Lions’ QB Travis Lulay is completing just over 60 percent of his passes for 2,494 yards, 13 TD’s and 11 INT’s. The BC ground game averages 94 YPG. Defensively the Lions allow 26.3 PPG and 361.3 YPG. While BC enters the playoffs having split its last six games, the Ti-Cats enter having lost three straight. Note that Hamilton has lost three of its last four at home. QB Jeremiah Masoli has been a bright spot with a 28/18 TD:INT.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Hamilton is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home, while BC is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this series. The Ti-Cats are currently being outscored by 7.7 points average during their three-game skid and everything points to another letdown here as well. Grab the points.
|07-21-18||Winnipeg -2 v. Toronto||Top||38-20||Win||100||27 h 34 m||Show|
The set-up: Winnipeg will be eager to get back on track here after falling 20-17 at BC last weekend, a game in which it held a 17-0 half-time lead. The Blue Bombers open a home and home set against an Argos team which just finished splitting a home and home series with the Eskimos.
The teams: Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols threw three second half INT’s last weekend and his team would fall to a disappointing 2-3 on the season. RB Andrew Harris though was a bright spot with 139 yards on the ground. Harris now leads the league with 449 rushing yards over five games.
The Argos go with QB James Franklin again, as he makes his third start in place of the injured Ricky Ray (lost for the season.) Last week Franklin looked to receiver SJ Green, who had 110 yards on ten catches last weekend. Previous to that though Green had just 105 yards total over three games to open the season. RB James Wilder Jr. looked pathetic last week though with just 26 yards of offense.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of three points or less, wile Toronto is a terrible 11-17 ATS in its last 28 when playing the role of underdog. I think Nichols bounces back, while all sins point to Franklin and company struggling again. Lay the points, play on the Bombers.
|07-19-18||Saskatchewan +11.5 v. Hamilton||Top||31-20||Win||100||69 h 29 m||Show|
The set-up: The Roughriders are 2-2 and the Ti-Cats are also 2-2. Hamilton doesn’t have a QB controversy on its hands right now, with Jeremiah Masoli under center. Saskatchewan has issues at the QB position however, with Brandon Bridges seeing time for an injured Zach Collaros this year. Regardless of that fact though, I believe the visitors will keep this one a lot more competitive than what this line would suggest.
The teams: Note that the Riders have won five of their last seven road games outright. Bridges will be leaning heavily on his run game here, a unit which has so far averaged 103.8 YPG. Jerome Messam so far has 110 yards on 32 carries. Defensively though Saskatchewan has been tough, allowing 23.8 points and 366 yards per game. Keep your eyes on Derrick Moncrief, who leads the teams with 20 tackles thus far.
Masoli is so far completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards and four touchdowns. He also has four INT’s though. The ground game is averaging 114.8 YPG, led by Mercer Timmis, who has 175 yards and four touchdowns already. Hamilton has also been strong on the defensive side this year, allowing an average of 21 points and 338.8 YPG.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan is 5-2 in is last seven following its bye week, while Hamilton is still only 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Roughriders have won four straight in this series and while I’m definitely not calling for an outright upset here or anything like that, as I stated off the top, I do believe that everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can, play on Saskatchewan.
|07-14-18||Winnipeg v. BC +4.5||Top||17-20||Win||100||14 h 47 m||Show|
The set-up: While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I look for the hungry home side to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. In fact, it’s an “immediate revenge” scenario after BC lost 41-19 in Winnipeg last weekend. BC has struggled against Winnipeg for a couple of years now, but I expect that trend to finally start going the other way this weekend.
The teams: Winnipeg got a big game defensively from LB Adam Bighill, who faced his former team for the first time last week as he’d post six tackles and make two interceptions. QB Matt Nichols was pretty mediocre though, going 16 of 27 for 162 yards.
BC comes in focused, as it comes in off back-to-back losses, allowing 82 points in the process. The Lions struggled on both sides of the ball last week, but desperation breeds motivation in my opinion. Both the struggling Jon Jennings and the injured Travis Lulay took snaps in practice this week.
The pick: Note that the Blue Bombers are interestingly just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 points or more in their previous contest. I’m banking on BC bouncing back and fighting for its life in this revenge spot in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points.
|07-13-18||Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5||Top||15-16||Loss||-105||34 h 18 m||Show|
The set-up: Toronto was down starting QB Ricky Ray and it was a 3.5 point underdog at home to these very Eskimos last week and the winless Argos would prevail outright with the 20-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be pay-back time in a big way in Alberta on Friday night.
The teams: The 20 points scored by the Argos was the most they’ve put up so far this year and the 17 points allowed was the least. QB James Franklin was an efficient 16 of 22 for 217 yards, with one passing and one rushing touchdown. Declan Cross caught the winning TD pass with three minutes to play. RB James Wilder Jr. had 120 rushing yards and a score as well.
The Eskimo’s looked “out of sorts” from the “get go” last week, but I think a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Edmonton to get back on track. QB Mike Reilly was still decent in the setback, going 28 of 40 for 370 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Reilly leads the league in passing with 1,390 yards and seven major scores. 12 penalties for 126 yards was just too much for Edmonton to overcome in the end though.
The pick: Neither team has been very good for bettors over the last few seasons, but I think the difference will be the immediate “revenge factor.” Edmonton hurt itself with sloppy and undisciplined play last week and I have a hard time seeing the home side not coming in completely focused here as it looks to atone for its sub-par effort. Toronto backup Franklin looked decent at home last weekend, but I think he’ll stumble in this hostile environment. Everything points to a blowout, lay the points.
|07-12-18||Calgary -3.5 v. Ottawa||Top||27-3||Win||100||32 h 32 m||Show|
The set-up: Calgary comes in off its bye and I look for it to continue its unbeaten 3-0 start to the 2018 campaign with another convincing victory here. These teams met in Calgary in Week 3 and the Stamps prevailed 24-14 and suffice it to say, I think an even bigger blowout is in the cards tonight.
The teams: Bo Levi Mitchell had 251 yards and two touchdowns, while Don Jackson had 84 yards a TD for Calgary in Week 3 week over Ottawa. Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris though had just 135 yards and pick before being pulled.
Mitchell so far has 872 yards and six TD’s this season, while Jackson already has 294 yards rushing.
Harris bounced back last week in Ottawa’s 28-18 win at Montreal with 342 yards and three TD’s, but clearly he’s going to have a much more difficult time tonight against the league’s No. 1 defense, a unit which has given up just 34 points over three games thus far.
The pick: Calgary is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday night games, performing well on the “short week” (despite coming off its bye), while Ottawa is a terrible 2-5 ATS in its last seven following a victory. Expect a rested and focused Calgary to pull away for the comfortable win/cover as the game comes down the stretch.
|07-07-18||Edmonton -3 v. Toronto||Top||17-20||Loss||-106||68 h 51 m||Show|
The set-up: Toronto won the 2017 Grey Cup in a stunning upset of the Calgary Stampeders, but so far the team has looked horrible in 2018 with an 0-2 start. Edmonton will look to take advantage here now and build off its 41-22 home win over the Lions last week.
The teams: CJ Gable had a career day rushing for Edmonton last week, going for 165 yards on 23 carries, while also adding a TD for the Esks. Mike Reilly was 22 of 30 for 326 yards and three major scores, while also rushing for a TD. WR D’Haquille Williams had six catches for 129 yards.
Toronto has so far managed just 26 points on the season and with starting QB Ricky Ray out for the season with a neck injury (career ending?) James Franklin is suddenly being thrust into a very difficult situation. Franklin was an unremarkable 8 of 13 for 65 yards and a rushing score in relief of Ray last week.
The pick: Note that Edmonton has covered in five of its past six road games. Note that Toronto is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 against clubs with winning records. The injury to Ray is devastating for an Argo’s team which was already struggling across the board. I think Reilly and company come in and calmly conduct their business and take full advantage of this favorable situation. Lay the points.
|07-06-18||Ottawa -7.5 v. Montreal||Top||28-18||Win||100||46 h 46 m||Show|
The set-up: Ottawa lost 24-14 in Calgary last week and it’ll be eager to return to the winners circle in this favorable matchup on Friday night. Montreal was a 10.5 point home underdog to Saskatchewan last weekend and it pulled off the huge 23-17 outright upset. Can anyone say “letdown spot” in Week 4?
The teams: Redblacks’ QB Trevor Harris struggled against Calgary’s elite defense, going 13 of 29 for 135 yards and an INT. The only bright spot on offense was RB William Powell, who had 113 yards on the day. And while the offense looked terrible overall, the defense was pretty good, forcing three turnovers in the end.
Montreal’s defense looked great last week as well, holding the Roughriders to 278 total yards. The offense though wasn’t great, with just 264 yards. QB Jeff Mathews was 8 of 12 for 98 yards.
The pick: Ottawa though has covered five straight in Montreal and I think everything points to that strong trend continuing here. Also note that the Redblacks have covered their last four following a loss. The moral of the story behind this pick, is to not “over-react.” Everything points to a blowout from start to finish in this one in my opinion, play on Ottawa.
|07-05-18||Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +7.5||Top||13-18||Win||100||23 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hamilton Tigercats went 1-1 on a season opening road trip and then returned home for a convincing 31-17 victory over Winnipeg in Week 3. The Roughriders will be hungry here though, as they come in sitting at just 1-2 and off a humbling 27-13 loss to lowly Montreal as a 10-point fav last time out.
The teams: Saskatchewan was 2-0 in this series last year, but the Roughriders clearly can’t take anything for granted against this much improved Hamilton team.
Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli had 369 yards an a TD last week for the Ti-Cats and the defense held the Bombers to just 280 yards. The run game also looked decent as Mercer Timmis had two short TD runs.
QB Brandon Bridge had to start in place of the injured Zach Collaros last week for Saskatchewan and while he’d stumble in that one, I think he’ll be much more competitive this time around.
The pick: With a game to make adjustments after losing Collaros, I think Winnipeg will look a lot better this week. This is Hamilton’s third road game in the first four weeks and after playing at such a high level, including posting back to back SU/ATS victories, everything finally points to a letdown in my opinion (note that Hamilton is 0-2 ATS in its last two after two more SU wins, while Saskatchewan is 6-4 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU losses.) Grab as many points as you can, play on the Roughriders.
|06-30-18||Montreal +11.5 v. Saskatchewan||Top||23-17||Win||100||106 h 58 m||Show|
The set-up: The Als are coming off an embarrassing home loss and they’ll be eager to quickly erase that memory. They now perhaps thankfully hit the road for a matchup against an equally as hungry Roughriders side in Saskatchewan. Montreal is 0-2 to open the season, while Saskatchewan is 1-1.
The teams: Montreal will be eager to avoid its first 0-3 start since the 1996 season. QB Drew Willy will be expected to step up here. In all fairness though, he hasn’t been terrible over the first two games, completing 68.3 percent of his passes for 392 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The combination of Ernest Jackson and Chris Williams has been decent with 196 receiving yards. The ground game has been poor with 72 yards per game, but the major problem has been on the defensive side, so far allowing 39 points and 444 yards per game.
Riders’ QB Zach Collaros hasn’t been great in the early going, with 309 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. The ground game has been decent with 102.5 yards per game average. The defense though has been nothing special, allowing 29.5 points and 375 yards per game.
The pick: It’s not going to be a pretty season for the Als, but they couldn’t have asked for a better opponent to try and score an upset against. Saskatchewan has looked poor overall and while I’m not in fact going to predict an outright victory, I do think that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points, play on the Alouettes.
|06-29-18||Winnipeg +4.5 v. Hamilton||Top||17-31||Loss||-109||80 h 4 m||Show|
The set-up: Both the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tigercats come in with identical 1-1 records. The Blue Bombers though have won six of their last eight road games and while I would of course not be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.
The teams: Winnipeg is led by QB Chris Streveler, who has 424 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. His favorite targets have been Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler, who have combined for 195 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The ground game has been dominant as well, averaging 191 yards per contest thus far, with Andrew Harris leading the charge with 135 on 29 carries. The defense hasn’t been shabby either, allowing 21.5 points and 341 yards per game.
Hamilton has lost six of its last eight home games. QB Jeremiah Masoli so far has 676 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions over the first two games. Jalen Saunders and Luke Tasker have combined for 325 receiving yards and two major scores. Defensively the Ti-Cats are allowing 24.5 points and 388.5 yards per game.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Hamilton is just 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 at home. After back-to-back road games to open the season, I think Hamilton suffers a predictable letdown here, leaving the back door open for the hungry visitors. Play on the Blue Bombers.
|06-22-18||Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal||Top||56-10||Win||100||11 h 6 m||Show|
The set-up: Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. Winnipeg lost a 33-30 heartbreaker at home to the Edmonton Eskimos, while Montreal had a predictable letdown in BC. The Bombers lost their starting QB in the final preseason tune-up, but their backup played well and I think he’ll carry that progression over here.
The teams: Winnipeg was forced to start Chris Streveler in Week 1 due to the injury to Matt Nichols. Streveler though posted a respectable first performance with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler combined for 120 receiving yards and two touchdowns. RB Andrew Harris had 77 yards on 14 carries, part of 137 total yards on the ground for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers looked poor on the defensive side, but clearly the team catches a break facing the impotent Al’s offense.
Montreal QB Drew Willy had 281 yards, one TD and one INT against the Lions last week. Note though that Willy has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last eight games. Montreal’s ground game stalled as well with just 78 total yards. RB Tyrell Sutton was a bright spot with 65 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Al’s looked decent defensively, allowing 300 yards and 22 points, led by Chris Ackie with six tackles.
The prediction: Take it for what you will though, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Montreal is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home. Not only that but the Blue Bombers are 6-1 in their last seven played in Montreal. The Al’s offense is still a major question mark and I have a hard time seeing the unit keeping up with Streveler and company. Lay the points.
|06-16-18||Montreal v. BC -6.5||Top||10-22||Win||100||83 h 49 m||Show|
The set-up: Montreal only won three games last year and I think it’ll struggle on the road to open the 2018 campaign. The Lions struggled last year as well with just seven victories, as BC would miss the postseason for the first time since 1996. The Lions though feature depth and veteran leadership which I believe will help the team on Opening night. Everything points to a home side blowout.
The teams: Montreal is now led by coach Mike Sherman, former Green Bay head boss. Drew Willy is experienced under center and he has a trio of decent playmakers in BJ Cunningham, Tyrell Sutton and Ernest Jackson. Note though that the defense finished dead last in total points allowed last season and that side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak point.
BC missed the playoffs, but it still finished third in the CFL in passing yards a year ago. Top receivers Bryan Burnham, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Jon Jennings are all back to make amends. Like their counterpart today, the main issue for the Lions last season was on the defensive side of the ball.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Al’s are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road and just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 in BC. I like the Lions to put on an offensive show in front of the home town crowd on Opening weekend as everything points to another road letdown for the still re-building Als. Play on BC.
|06-16-18||Hamilton +9.5 v. Calgary||Top||14-28||Loss||-110||80 h 50 m||Show|
The set-up: Calgary is always one of the top teams favored to win the Grey Cup (at least over the last decade.) Hamilton though won’t be rolling over and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do expect the hungry visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough with the big spread.
The teams: Hamilton has won just 13 games over the last two seasons, but it got a spark over the last two months with the addition of oft-maligned QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel is starting as the backup QB, but the ex Texas A&M pivot will be expected to come in and replace starter Jeremiah Masoli at some point. Returning from last year are the team’s top two receivers in Luke Tasker and Jalen Saunders, a duo which combined for over 2,300 receiving yards and 11 TD’s. The Ti-Cats achilles heel was on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, but the return of key players such as Richard Leonard and Larry Dean is expected to help the unit make strides in 2018.
Calgary has lost the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons in heart-breaking fashion and while it’ll be coming into the 2018 campaign with a collective “chip on its shoulder,” I think it will in fact come in a bit complacent here against its lowly non-conference opponent. The offense is once again led by Bo Levi Mitchell, who has 19,000 yards and 115 TD’s over four years as a starting QB with the team. The Stamps were the best defensive team in the league last year, allowing 349 total points, while also collecting 50 sacks.
The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Ti-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, while the Stamps are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series when playing in front of the home town crowd. This one has “competitive battle” written all over it.
|06-14-18||Edmonton v. Winnipeg +7.5||Top||33-30||Win||100||33 h 26 m||Show|
The set-up: Winnipeg might be without starting QB Matt Nichols to open the 2018 campaign, but the Blue Bombers won’t be lacking for motivation on Opening Night after Edmonton knocked them out of the Western semi-final last year 39-32. Winnipeg won both regular season meetings a year ago though and I look for the hungry home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread that it’s been afforded.
The teams: Edmonton went 12-6 during the regular season in 2017, before then falling to Calgary in the West Final. The Eskimos feature one of the best QB’s in the league in Mike Reilly, who will have to start the season without two of his top targets in Adarius Bowman (went to Winnipeg in the offseason) and Brandon Zylstra (signed by the Minnesota Vikings.)
As mentioned above, the Blue Bombers won’t have Nichols under center, meaning that rookie Chris Streveler is “the next man up.” Streveler looked pretty good in two preseason games, going 13 of 19 for 184 yards, two TD’s and an INT. But the Bombers have a bunch of talent on both sides of field, including Bowman, Nic Demski and LB Adam Bighill. In 2015 Bighill was named the CFL’s top Defensive player.
The pick: Take it for what you will, but Edmonton is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in June, while the Bombers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against the West. While I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright, I’m banking on the home side keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.
|08-17-17||Edmonton v. Winnipeg +1||Top||26-33||Win||100||31 h 22 m||Show|
The set-up: The 7-0 Edmonton Eskimos look to keep their perfect record intact when they visit the 5-2 Winnipeg Blue Bombers Thursday at Investors Group Field. QB Mike Reilly is completing 72.7 percent of his passes for 2,329 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. He leads an offense which ranks first in YPG (429.3 per) and first in passing yards(332.7 YPG). The Eskimos average 29.1 PPG (3rd-best) but just one of the team's seven wins have come by more than seven points (an 11-point win), hence the team's mediocre 3-3-1 ATS mark. The defense allows 333.9 YPG to also rank third-best. Winnipeg is 5-2 SU & ATS and enters off three straight wins, scoring 41, 33 and 39 points, respectively. QB Matt Nichols completes 68.9 percent of his passes for 2,024 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. Winnipeg scored just 10 points in losing its second game of the season but has scored 33 points or more in its other six games. Defensively, the Blue Bombers allow 31.6 PPG (8th) on 402.1 YPG (7th).
|08-13-17||BC -2 v. Saskatchewan||Top||8-41||Loss||-110||21 h 47 m||Show|
The set-up: The 5-2 BC Lions visit Mosaic Stadium on Sunday to take on the 2-4 Saskatchewan Roughriders. The BC Lions are unbeaten against all CFL teams not named Edmonton, which by the way is a perfect 7-0. Jonathon Jennings began the season as BC's No. 1 QB but was injured in Week 4. Veteran Travis Lulay took over and threw for 436 yards in that Week 4 contest. He's completing 73.7% of his passes and averaging 359.3 YPG while lead the Lions to 35.3 PPG. Defensively, BC is allowing 27.7 points and 397.3 yards per game. The Roughriders have split their last four games, including 30-15 at BC last week. Saskatchewan enters this contest 2-4. QB Kevin Glenn is completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 1,784 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs.
|08-05-17||Saskatchewan v. BC -7||Top||15-30||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
The pick: The BC Lions have had no problems so far this season, except for going 0-2 vs.the Edmonton Eskimos. Then again, Edmonton stands at 6-0 on the season. BC played and beat Saskatchewan in each of the last two weeks of the 2016 season, outscoring the Roughriders by a combined score of 65-24! Saskatchewan has moved the ball and scored points at home here in 2017 (38.2 PPG in three contests) but has scored a total of just 26 points (13.0 per) in two road losses. Expect more road woes for the Roughriders in this one. Make BC a 10* play
|08-03-17||Calgary -4.5 v. Toronto||Top||41-24||Win||100||55 h 16 m||Show|
The set-up: The 4-1-1 Calgary Stampeders visit the 3-3 Toronto Argonauts at BMO Field on Thursday. Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,832 yards with 10 TD passes and three interceptions. He leads an offense that ranks No. 1 in total yards (425.5 per) and is the CFL's highest scoring team (35.5 PPG). That goes perfectly with a defense that leads the CFL in allowing a modest 20.2 PPG. Toronto Argonauts averages 421.7 YPG (second) but yards haven't translated into points, as the Argonauts are averaging only 25.3 PPG (ranks 7th of 9 teams). QB Ricky Ray is completing 69.2 percent of his passes for 2,282 yards with nine TD passes and just three interceptions. Toronto is allowing 27.2 points and 361.3 yards per game.
|07-29-17||Hamilton +13.5 v. Calgary||Top||1-60||Loss||-115||58 h 30 m||Show|
The 0-4 (0-3-1 ATS) Hamilton Tiger-Cats will look for their first win of the 2017 season Saturday night at McMahon Stadium against the 3-1-1 (2-3 ATS) Calgary Stampeders. QB Zach Collaros is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,041 yards with three TD passes and four interceptions. Hamilton ranks 9th in passing yards and 8th in rushing yards, leaving them 9th overall at 310.2 YYPG, as well as being the league's lowest scoring team at 22.3 PPG. If the team's lack of offense weren't enough, Hamilton is allowing 35.2 points (8th) and 488.2 yards per game (9th). Calgary is a solid offensive team, ranking third in both poinst scored (30.6 per) and YPG (411.4). QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,635 yards with nine TDs and three interceptions. Calgary's defense allows just 24.0 PPG, second-best in the league.
|07-22-17||Saskatchewan v. Calgary -10||Top||10-27||Win||100||58 h 10 m||Show|
The set-up: The 1-2 Saskatchewan Roughriders will take on the 2-1-1 Calgary Stampeders Saturday at McMahon Stadium. The Roughriders are off their first win of the season (37-20 at home over Hamilton), after opening 0-2. Saskatchewan lost 17-16 at Montreal to start the season but QB Kevin Glenn has thrown for 728 yards and six TDs the last two games, leading the Roughriders to 40 points (lost by three in OT) and 37 (17-point win). The Saskatchewan defense has allowed 326.0 YPG (first) but 26.7 PPG, which ranks fifth. Calgary is 2-1-1, having played three of their first four away from home. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,382 yards with seven TD passes and just two INTs in 163 pass attempts. Calgary allows more than 90 YPG than Saskatchewan (419 to 326) but about the same amount of points, 27.5 per to 26.7.
|07-19-17||Montreal v. Ottawa -4.5||Top||19-24||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
The set-up: The 2-2 Montreal Alouettes will play the 0-3-1 Ottawa Redblacks Wednesday night at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa. Montreal has played three of its first four at home, losing its lone road game 23-19 at Edmonton (note: Eskimos are 3-0 to start the 2017 season). QB Darian Durant is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 940 yards with four TD passes and four INTs but is somewhat helped by the league's top rushing attack (109.2 YPG). The bigger help is a Montreal defense allowing a league-best 21.2 PPG. The Redblacks are still looking for their first win of the season after a 0-3-1 start. QB Trevor Harris is completing 71.5 percent of his passes for 1,379 yards with eight TD passes and just two INTs. He leads an offense which has played well, averaging 29.0 PPG (4th-best). However, Ottawa's defense has allowed the most points (123) in the league and its 30.8 PPG average ranks 7th of nine teams, ahead of two teams that have played just three games.
The pick: The Alouettes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games but Ottawa has won five of the last six meetings against Montreal. Yes, Ottawa is win-less but along with a 31-31 tie, the three losses have come by 4, 1 and 2 points! The Redblacks aren't nearly as bad as their record and are, as the saying goes, "due!" Maybe, overdue? Make Ottawa an 8* play.
|07-14-17||Ottawa +6 v. Edmonton||Top||21-23||Win||100||84 h 50 m||Show|
|07-13-17||Toronto +3 v. Winnipeg||Top||25-33||Loss||-110||59 h 31 m||Show|
The set-up: The 2-1 Toronto Argonauts and 1-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Thursday at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. Toronto QB Ricky Ray has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 1,199 yards with four TDs and just one interception. He may have had just one TD pass in last week's home win over Hamilton but he threw for 506 yards and did not throw an INT in 41 pass attempts, while leading the Argos to 32 points. The defense was excellent, holding the Tiger-Cats to 15 points on 258 yards with just 12 FDs. Toronto is allowing 22.7 points and 361 YPG after three games (more on that later). Winnipeg opened with a 43-40 OT win at Saskatchewan but then returned home to lose 29-10 to Calgary. QB Matt Nichols threw for 331 yards with four TDs and just one INT in beating the Roughriders but was not nearly as good against Calgary, with two INTs and one TD pass, while leading the Blue Bombers to just 10 points!
|07-08-17||Hamilton +1.5 v. Saskatchewan||Top||20-37||Loss||-110||108 h 0 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet Saturday in CFL action at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan. Both teams are looking for their first win of 2017, as Hamilton has opened 0-1 and Saskatchewan 0-2. The Tiger-Cats lost 32-15 at Toronto in Week 1 and took last week off. Zach Collaros won the starting QB job but threw for a modest 242 yards in Week 1, without a TD pass and one INT. Running games are not the most important aspect of any CFL team but Hamilton will need to improve on its 16 yard rushing effort against the Argonauts! It's been "close but no cigar" for the Roughriders to open the 2017 season. They lost 17-16 at Montreal in Week 1, then lost 43-40 (in OT) at home to Winnipeg in Week 2. QB Kevin Glenn is completing 72 percent of his passes for 675 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. The running game has averaged 61.5 yards per contest. The defense played well in Week 1 but then allowed 43 points on 430 yards in Week 2 (team also allowed 261 return yards).
|07-07-17||Calgary -3 v. Winnipeg||Top||29-10||Win||100||82 h 21 m||Show|
The set-up: The Calgary Stampeders and Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Friday in CFL action at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. The Stampeders have opened the 2017 season with back-to-back games against Ottawa, winning 43-39 at home in Week 1 and then playing to a 31-31 tie in Week 2 at Ottawa. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 671 yards and is off to a great start with seven TD passes without an INT (he has 37 TD passes over his last 19 games). However, Calgary's defense is not off to a good start, allowing 35 points and 461 yards per game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers didn't play in Week 1 but were able to outlast the Saskatchewan Roughriders 43-40 in double overtime last week on the road. QB Matt Nichols is off to a strong start, completing 63.9 percent of his passes last week for 331 yards with four TDs and just one interception.
|07-01-17||Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +1||Top||43-40||Loss||-110||105 h 2 m||Show|
The set-up: The CFL's second week concludes Saturday night when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan. The Blue Bombers will be making their 2017 debut in this game, after finishing 11-7 last year and losing in the West semifinals. Matt Nichols returns at QB after throwing for a modest 18 TDs last season. The Blue Bombers averaged 27.6 PPG but allowed 25.2 PPG, so it's no surprise the team was 10-8 ATS. The Roughriders are looking to even their 2017 record at 1-1, after losing 17-16 in Week 1 to the Montreal Alouettes. QB Kevin Glenn completed 70.5 percent of his passes against Montreal for 298 yards (one TD and one INT) but the offense produced just 16 points.
The pick: Winnipeg won seven of nine road games last season (also 7-2 ATS) and then lost (but covered) in a 32-31 loss at BC in the playoffs. Does that mean the Blue Bombers are the play? Not so fast. The Roughriders have a game under their belts (it's Winnipeg's first game since November of 2016) and the team's "D" put forth an excellent effort. Montreal was held to just 17 points on 16 FDs at home. In a near pick'em contest, I'll make the home team an 8* play.
|06-30-17||Montreal +8.5 v. Edmonton||Top||19-23||Win||100||82 h 52 m||Show|
The set-up: The Montreal Alouettes eked out a 17-16 win in Week 1 at Saskatchewan, while the Edmonton Eskimos edged the BC Lions 30-27 on the road. The two teams meet Friday at the Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton. Montreal QB Darian Durant passed for 233 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Edmonton QB Mike Reilly tortured opposing defenses in 2016 with 5,554 passing yards, as well as finishing second in the league in both TD passes (28) and rushing TDs (9). He passed for 315 yards, two TDs and zero INTs in the three-point win over the Lions.
|06-30-17||BC +1 v. Toronto||Top||28-15||Win||100||79 h 3 m||Show|
The set-up: The BC Lions and Toronto Argonauts meet Friday at the BMO Field in Toronto. The Lions lost 30-27 at home in Week 1 to Edmonton and look for their first victory of the season, tonight. The Lions scored 27 points last week but QB Jonathon Jennings didn't have a TD pass (no INTs, either), while passing for a modest 264 yards. Toronto opened with an easy 32-15 win over Hamilton and while QB Ricky Ray had just one TD pass, he didn't throw an INT, completed 78 percent of his passes and threw for 506 yards!
|06-25-17||Hamilton -3.5 v. Toronto||Top||15-32||Loss||-105||56 h 54 m||Show|
The set-up: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Toronto Argonauts meet Sunday in CFL action at the BMO Field in Toronto. The Tiger-Cats are hoping for a better season in 2017, after finishing 7-11 last year and then losing 24-21 to Edmonton in the East Semifinal. Hamilton has possibly the best 1-2 QB punch in the league with Zach Collaros and Jeremiah Masoli both playing well last season and proving they can lead the team. However, it looks as if Collaros will be the go-to guy this year now that he's finally healthy. Toronto has nowhere to go but up after finishing with a CFL-worst 5-13 record (Saskatchewan was also 5-13). The Argonauts scored only 383 points last year (21.3), with only Saskatchewan scoring less (350 points). On defense, no team allowed more points than Toronto's 568 (31.6 per). If Ricky Ray stays healthy, Toronto's offense will be in good hands. However, while Ray has more than 54,000 career passing yards, he has played just 12 games the last two years. The fact that the Argonauts lost their top-two receivers from a year ago is also a concern, even though Ray is healthy to open the 2017 season.
|06-22-17||Saskatchewan +7 v. Montreal||Top||16-17||Win||100||31 h 39 m||Show|
The set-up: The Saskatchewan Roughriders (West Division) ended last year with losses in their last three games and finished 5-13. However, they were a much more respectable 9-9 ATS. That said, the Roughriders pretty much have nowhere to go but up. They allowed 530 points (only the East's Toronto allowed more in giving up 568) and no team in the CFL scored fewer points than Saskatchewan's 350. QB Darian Durant, who is a two-time Grey Cup champion, is gone and finding a new starting QB among Kevin Glenn, Brandon Bridge or Marquise Williams will be a priority. The Roughriders open their season in Montreal tonight, against the Alouettes. Montreal plays in the East and despite winning their final three games finished 7-11 last year, a season in which none of the four teams in the East were able to finish with a winning record. Durant, who threw for more than 3,800 yards last season, is now Montreal's starting QB. I'm sure he'd love to have a big game against the ex-teammates.
The pick: It's no surprise that the West is the much tougher division (four of the West's five teams topped .500, with only Saskatchewan under. 500) and Saskatchewan went 7-3 ATS over its last 10 games, overall (4-1 ATS in their last five road games). Having a consistent and reliable QB such as Durant makes Montreal a better team in 2017 but I have no interest in laying points (about a TD) with a team which is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games. Make Saskatchewan a 10* play.
|08-04-16||BC v. Montreal +3||Top||38-18||Loss||-108||57 h 25 m||Show|
The set-up: The 3-2 B.C. Lions are second in the five-team West, right behind 3-1-1 Calgary, while the host 2-3 Montreal Alouettes sit last in the four-team East. However, after cruising 41-3 past the Saskatchewan Roughriders the Riders last week, the Alouettes feel as if the team is coming together at it gets set to host the Lions. Meanwhile, two late interceptions cost B.C. last week against Calgary, as the Lions lost 44-41. Still, the Lions are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS on the road, in the early going. The pick: The B.C. Lions say they have turned the page following last week’s heartbreaking overtime loss in Calgary but the Lions figure to have a very difficult time bouncing back from allowing 22 fourth-quarter points in their last game, before losing in OT. QB Jonathon Jennings threw for 374 yards and three TDs to go along with 44 rushing yards last week but what the critics will point to is the costly fourth quarter interception, which led to the game-tying points and the one in the end zone to seal the Lions’ fate. Meanwhile, the Alouettes are primed to build of their last game. QB Glenn completed 237 of 36 passes for 299 yards (two TDs / zero INTs) and Montreal added 238 in return yards as well. These clubs split their two meetings last year with the road team winning each time but it’s the home team for us in this one, off last week’s results. 10* play on Montreal.
|07-31-16||Toronto +10.5 v. Ottawa||Top||23-20||Win||100||92 h 33 m||Show|
The Toronto Argonauts are coming off a spirited 30-17 home win over Montreal, and they come into this Sunday's game at Ottawa as a double-digit underdog. The Redblacks are sitting in the top spot in the East, but are coming off their first loss of the season, at the hands of the last place Saskatchewan Roughriders. My money is on Toronto plus the points.
Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Argonauts (10*)
|07-25-16||Montreal +7 v. Toronto||Top||17-30||Loss||-115||164 h 31 m||Show|
The Montreal Alouettes are sitting in last place in the East, trailing Toronto by just one game. The two teams meet tonight at BMO Field, and Toronto is a significant favorite. Montreal has shown plenty of positive signs in just three games so far, and I expect the Als to make a game of it.
|07-22-16||Ottawa v. Saskatchewan +7||Top||29-30||Win||100||93 h 52 m||Show|
The Saskatchewan Roughriders will host the CFL best Ottawa Redblacks at Mosaic Stadium Friday, and the Riders are a big home dog here. Ottawa is still undefeated, while Saskatchewan is 0-3, still in search of it's first win. I'll take the point here as I think the home team isn't getting enough respect.
|07-21-16||Calgary v. Winnipeg +5.5||Top||33-18||Loss||-110||69 h 32 m||Show|
The Calgary Stampeders will take on the Bombers in Winnipeg Thursday night, and only one point separates these teams in the Western Conference standings. The Stamps are coming off a 26-26 draw versus the Redblacks two weeks ago, and should be well rested ahead of tonight's game. The Bombers came up just short in a 20-16 home loss to Edmonton, but they look good getting points here at home tonight.
|07-14-16||Edmonton -3 v. Winnipeg||Top||20-16||Win||100||77 h 53 m||Show|
The defending Grey Cup champions will play their third game of the season on the road at Winnipeg, and the Bombers have lost two of their first three games so far. The Eskies offense has been firing on all cylinders, scoring a total of 76 points in just two games. I think Edmonton will prove to be too much for the Bombers defense to handle.
Selection: This is a play on the Edmonton Eskimos (10*)
|07-13-16||Ottawa +1 v. Toronto||Top||30-20||Win||100||52 h 43 m||Show|
The Ottawa Redblacks come into Toronto tonight as the CFL's only undefeated team. The Argos have bounced back from a poor performance in their home opener, winning back-to-back games on the road at B.C. and Saskatchewan. This looks like it could be a shootout, and my money is on the visitors.
Selection: This is a play on the Ottawa Redblacks (10*)