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The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, while the home side goes with ace Corey Kluber.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Wednesday. Rodon hasn’t been perfect this year, but his 1.11 WHIP is elite and note that he has a sharp 3.08 ERA in all “night” games as well.

Kluber is so far 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over 1.2 innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Monday. It was his worst start of the year, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react. Clearly the sub-par effort has to be considered an “outlier” at his point.

The pick: Note that Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.05 ERA at home this season. And take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this early afternoon Tuesday contest is one of them. I think runs are going to be plentiful this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with JA Happ.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He returns to the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. He’s been more “miss” than “hit” for the Red Sox this year though, a big reason why he was quickly shifted to the bullpen originally. Note that he’s been poor on the road with a 2-6, 5.68 ERA.

Happ is so far 16-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Happ’s been as solid as New York could have possibly asked for since coming over from the Jays, but I will point out that he still does own a very pedestrian 4.90 ERA in all home instances this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the red hot Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with veteran Jake Arrieta.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He most recently went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday, striking out seven and issuing zero walks. To go along with his solid ERA he also sports an elite 1.12 WHIP along with a strong 175 strikeouts over 167.1 innings.

Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA. For the most part the veteran has been as solid as the Phillies could have possibly hoped for this season and Arrieta surely feels confident in this spot as he comes in with a very respectable 4-3, 3.10 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Mets have seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of their last 17 National League road games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob deGrom, while the home side goes with ace Chris Sale.

The pitchers: deGrom is so far 8-9 with a 1.71 ERA. The Mets right-hander has been nearly perfect this season and he’s been especially tough on the road where he’s a “lights out” 5-3 with a 1.66 ERA.

Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.96 ERA. He returned on Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame against Toronto, giving up one hit and striking out two. Sale’s been out since August 12th, but he’s re-habed successfully, made a successful first appearance and now he’s been given the green light to make his first start.

The pick: Note that Sale is 4-2 with a 1.92 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in all “day” games. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten American League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The Jays Marco Estrada was dominant in 2015, but it’s now the end of 2018 and the veteran has been sliding ever since. The Yanks’ Masahiro Tanaka has looked downright dominant at times this season, but also plain horrible in others. I think runs are going to be plentiful in this one Friday night.

The pitchers: Estrada is so far 3-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with two walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. Previous to that though he’d bee shelled for 11 runs over 6.1 innings, spanning two starts. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA on the road as well.

Tanaka is so far 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Mariners on Friday, going eight shutout and striking out ten. Tanaka has been considerably more consistent than his inconsistent counterpart this year, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.33 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine American League night home games in which they’re a favorite in the -175 to -275 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think the Yanks’ Luis Severino and the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi will fight deep into the latter frames, which will in turn result in pushing this total “under” the number at the end of the night.

The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-7 with a 3.52 ERA. After a disastrous August, Severino has looked more steady of late. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he still owns a very respectable 3.65 ERA in all “night” games.

Odorizzi is so far 5-10 with a 4.57 ERA. Last year he was 10-8 with a 4.14 ERA, so 2018 has clearly been a step back for the hard-throwing right-hander. He’s coming off a loss against the Astros last week and while his ERA is nothing to write home about, I’ll point out that he does own the respectable 1.26 WHIP and 148:61 K/BB over 147.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of its last 24 American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-up on the mound, and this is one of those. The visitors go with Jose Urena, while the home side hands the ball to Jacob deGrom.

The pitchers: Urena is so far 5-12 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Monday.

deGrom is so far 8-8 with a 1.68 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. deGrom’s scheduled start was postponed on Monday due to rain, so he comes into this one with extra rest.

The pick: deGrom has been even tougher at home on opponents than on the road, as evidenced by his tiny 1.59 ERA in such instances. Note as well that New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of 20 this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: For the most part these starting pitchers have struggled this year. Two veterans who have seen better days collide on Saturday afternoon and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Wei-Yin Chen, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-9 with a 4.64 ERA. He comes in on a bit of “tear” having won two straight, most recently going eight innings. However, I’m not convinced that Chen has suddenly “turned a corner,” as note that he’s still owns a poor 5.55 ERA in all “day” games and he’s a terrible 1-6 with a 9.35 ERA on the road.

Nova is so far 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA. His last start was skipped over due to a personal issue and while he’s been much better at home than on the road, I still think his overall inconsistency from game-to-game becomes a factor again today.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 day National League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with David Price.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Cole clearly comes in confident here sporting a 6-3, 2.79 ERA record on the road as well.

Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.60 ERA. He got hit by a liner in his last start, but he’s been given the green light to go here. Price is putting together one of his best campaigns of his career as well, note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA at home so far.

The pick: This is a great match-up and I expect these two “studs” to fight into the latter frames. And as a result, look for this one to sneak “under” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: This American League match-up on Wednesday night features two pitchers who have seen better days. I expect the total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later in this one. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Mike Leake.

The pitchers: Cashner is so far 4-13 with a 4.86 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off nine hits with three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out one in a loss to the Royals on Friday. Note that Cashner comes in sport a terrible 2-7, 5.27 ERA record on the road.

Leake is so far 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off seven hits in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Overall Leake’s been solid for the most part this season, although not really at home with a pedestrian 3-5, 4.29 ERA record.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

PITCHING CHANGE! NO PLAY! 

The set-up: These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. Neither has looked great of late though and I think each is going to get the hook early in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-7 with a 4.27 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Over five August starts Porcello stumbled to a 2-3, 4.78 ERA performance.

Newcomb is so far 11-7 with a 3.85 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off eight hits with two walks in a loss to the Rays on Wednesday. Over his last four starts he’s posted a horrible 8.48 ERA and clearly that doesn’t bode well facing the league’s No. 1 offense.

The pick: I think Porcello takes a step back in this difficult National League venue, while Newcomb also looks poised to continue his spiral down the proverbial crapper against this elite hitting line-up. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Touki Toussaint.

The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA. After an unreal start for the Red Sox, Eovaldi predictably came crashing back down to Earth shortly after. Eovaldi hasn’t forgotten how to pitch though and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games by posting a 4-1, 1.95 ERA record.

Toussaint is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. In his first outing for the Braves he’d impress everyone by giving up one run over six innings in a victory over Miami. Clearly the Red Sox present an entirely different challenge, but the rookie showed enough to impress me to make me think he’ll be able to last into the latter frames again here.

The pick: I think there’s a ton of value on the “under” as I expect these hungry starting pitchers to fight into the latter frames. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Two pitchers who have seen better days collide on Sunday afternoon in this American League match-up. I believe runs will be plentiful with the Mariners turning to Felix Hernandez and the A’s going with Edwin Jackson.

The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-12 with a 5.49 ERA. Hernandez has admittedly looked a lot better since an early August move to the bullpen in two subsequent starts, but note that he’s still a brutal 4-7 with a 6.95 ERA on the road.

Jackson is so far 4-3 with a 3.03 ERA. After an un-sustainable start to his 2018/19 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth of late. Regardless though, Jackson has been decent overall, but note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.17 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 14 day American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who come into the end of the season struggling. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Lance Lynn.

The pitchers: Boyd is so far 8-12 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the light-hitting Royals on Wednesday and while Boyd’s likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, note that he’s still a very poor 2-9 with a 5.95 ERA on the road this year.

Lynn is so far 8-9 with a 4.84 ERA. After a great stretch, Lynn has come back down to Earth of late for the Yanks. Note that he owns a poor 2-4, 5.90 ERA in all “day” games this season also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who have seen better days. I think runs will definitely be plentiful in this one with the Mets sending Stephen Matz to the hill and the home side going with Derek Holland.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Nationals on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits with one walk in what turned out to be a loss. Matz has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though, especially on the road where he’s just 4-5 with a 5.53 ERA.

Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits in a win over Texas on Sunday. Holland has been sharp of late, but note that he does own a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day road National League games in which it’s an underdog in the -105 to -135 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Luis Severino.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings, striking out five and picking up a win over the Cubs on Tuesday. For the most part the veteran has been solid this year, especially on the road with a 3-2, 2.34 ERA in all “night” games.

Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.27 ERA. He’s been a bit shaky of late, but overall Severino is enjoying a tremendous season. Note that he’s 9-2 with a tiny 2.73 ERA in “home” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 18 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two starters who have seen better days. I absolutely think that each will get the hook early, which will ultimately help in pushing this total “over,” sooner rather than later. The visitors go with Mike Fulmer, while the home side goes with Danny Duffy.

The pitchers: Fulmer is so far 3-9 with a 4.32 ERA. He looked decent against the tooth-less White Sox in his first start back from the DL last week, but overall it’s been a disappointing season for Fulmer, who is just 2-3 with a terrible 5.51 ERA on the road.

Duffy is so far 7-11 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits with two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Rays on Thursday. It was his first start back from the DL as well. Note that in two starts prior to getting injured he was shelled for 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in early August.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine road day games in which the line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I had a play on the “under” when these two squared off against each other last week in the Phillies’ eventual late inning victory. Clearly these are two of the best in the World going head-to-head, but I think these talented hitting line-ups will produce just enough offense this time around to push the total above this tiny number.

The pitchers: Max Scherzer is 16-6 with a 2.13 ERA. He gave up two runs off two hits with four walks while striking out ten over seven innings in the 2-0 loss to Philadelphia last week.

Aaron Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.13 ERA. He went eight scoreless against the Nats and he’s now gone 3-0 while posting 25 strikeouts over his last 21 innings of work.

The pick: Clearly it’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these guys. But note that the Phillies have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last ten night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +175 range. This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups with relative “no names” going head to head on the mound and this is obviously one of them. I think runs will be plentiful this evening. The visitors go with Thomas Pannone, while the home side goes with Josh Rogers.

The pitchers: Pannone is so far 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He made three appearances out of the bullpen for his major league debut last week, but he’s been recalled now to make his very first start. Clearly the sky is the limit for Pannone, but I think he’ll take a small step back in this difficult venue.

Ramirez was supposed to get the start here, but Baltimore has made a late Tuesday morning change to Josh Rogers, who makes his MLB season debut today. The sky may be the limit for Rogers, but I think he’ll struggle against this difficult and determined opponent.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night road games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I’m banking on these starting pitchers getting chased early and for this total going “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. When it’s all said and done though, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy.

The teams: Severino is so far 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA. After an almost unstoppable start to the 2018 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth over the last month and a half, but he does enter off a decent start against the punch-less White Sox. Severino has been elite, but note he does possess a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road.

Bundy is so far 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA. The veteran finished 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, but he’s been a complete disaster this season. Especially at home where he is a poor 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 22 night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +250 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups and this is one of them in my opinion. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this inter-league contest on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada.

The teams: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.06 ERA. While he’s struggled a bit of late, overall the hard-throwing right-hander has been solid overall this year, especially on the road where he owns a sharp 2.77 ERA to this point.

Estrada is so far 7-9 with a 4.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back decent outings and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games this season with a 2-2, 3.11 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Jays have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of their last 11 day home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is too high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number by the end of the game. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Ryan Yarbrough.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-6 with a 4.14 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the Indians and while’s been strong overall this season, note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.91 ERA in all “night” games.

Yarbrough is so far 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA. He has been “hit or miss” over the last month though and while the rookie has clearly exceeded expectations to this point, I’ll point out that he still owns a rather “ho hum” 4.14 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine as night road favorite in the -125 to -200 range, while Tampa has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 17 night home games as an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I believe runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with Brad Keller.

The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 9-7 with a 3.25 ERA. He comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing no runs off seven hits with seven strikeouts over six innings in the victory. So far Clevinger has 155 strikeouts over 157.2 frames of work. Also note that he owns a sharp 2.75 ERA on the road this season.

Keller is so far 6-5 with a 3.32 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong starts and note that the rookie has been at his best at home with the 3-1, 3.20 ERA to this point.

The pick: Neither of these guys is running out of gas, in fact each looks as if they’re getting stronger as the season is wearing on. I find absolutely no reason whatsoever not to believe that these two can’t carry that momentum over again here. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This National League contest has “slug-fest” written all over in my opinion. The visitors go with Anthony DeSclafani on the mound, while the home side goes with Cole Hamels.

The pitchers: DeSclafani is so far 6-3 with a 4.12 ERA. He’s been better of late, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA in all “night” games this year.

Hamels is so far 8-9 with a 4.00 ERA. Hamels enters off his first shaky start for his new team, but overall the veteran has been sharp since coming over from the Rangers. Hamels has been anything but a “safe-bet” in all “home” situations this year though, coming in with a terrible 1-7, 6.01 ERA in all such instances.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go “over” the number in 13 of their last 21 road games as an underdog in the -150 to -200 range. I think that it’s very possible that Hamels’ early shiny numbers for Chicago are completely unsustainable. I’m also not confident that DeSclafani has “turned any corners” quite yet either. Look for this one to sneak “over” as it comes down the stretch.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium this afternoon with these two “studs” going head-to-head. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 14-3 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in a victory over New York on Friday. He’s been red hot since Day 1 and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t come in razor focused here as well. Note that he owns a tiny 0.98 WHIP and has a 160:44 K/BB over 161 frames of work.

Scherzer is so far 16-5 with a 2.11 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Fish on Friday. That’s back-to-back scoreless outings for Scherzer, who owns a minuscule 0.89 WHIP and a monstrous 234 strikeouts over 174.2 frames of work.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of its last 20 day road games as an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. Everything points to a runs being at a premium tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side goes with Stephen Strasburg.

The pitchers: Eflin is so far 9-4 with a 3.70 ERA. He returns to the big league’s after a stint with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In his last start in the Majors on Aug. 16th he earned a win over the Mets despite allowing four runs over seven frames of work. Note though that he owns a sharp 7-3, 3.66 ERA in all “night” games.

Strasburg is so far 6-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Strasburg returns to the starting rotation refreshed after a month off due to a neck issue. He threw a 70 pitch simulated game late last week and he’s been cleared to go here.

The pick: Strasburg has the track record to get back on track and that’s what I expect to see after some time off to re-focus. Eflin has been sharp in this position all season as well and I expect the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over into this one. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups of struggling starters and this is one of them. I think runs will be plentiful tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Robert Stephenson, while the home side goes with Freddy Peralta.

The pitchers: Stephenson is so far 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. Stephenson has always looked sharp in Triple-A, but that success has so far not translated over into the big leagues. He was 5-6 with a 4.68 ERA last season, including just 1-3 with a 6.19 ERA on the road.

Peralta is so far 5-4 with a 4.48 ERA. Not surprisingly the rookie has been “hit or miss” this year, showing great strike-out potential, but also displaying shaky command with a lot of walks. Note that Peralta is just 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games too.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 17 day home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: I have zero faith in either starter and I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Chris Stratton, while the home side goes with Steven Matz.

The pitchers: Stratton is so far 8-7 with a 5.52 ERA. He returns from Triple-A out of necessity. For the most part he’s been terrible this season in the big leagues, especially at home with a 6.09 ERA.

Matz is so far 5-10 with a 4.60 ERA. He makes his second start back from injury at home, a place where he’s gone a poor 1-5 with a 4.78 ERA.

The pick: This match-up definitely does not have “pitchers duel” written all over it. It’s the exact opposite in fact. There’s no reason to have any faith in any either of these guys, and I don’t. I expect each to get the hook early and for this one to fly “over” once it’s all said and done.

The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. However, i think we’ll see just enough offense to push this one “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.13 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back shaky outings and while he has thrown better on the road than at home, I think the right-hander is running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch.

Roark is so far 8-12 with a 4.13 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Thursday. Roark has been solid over the last the last month, but I’ll caution that he’s still just 4-6 with a 5.20 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten road night games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I think Velasquez continues to slide and I believe Roark will take a step back. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This match-up has “slug-fest” written all over it. The Orioles go with Dylan Bundy, while the Jays hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio.

The pitchers: Bundy is so far 7-11 with a 4.99 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings. He gave up eight hits, including two home runs. In four of his last six trips to the hill he’s allowed at least five earned runs while posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in that stretch.

Gaviglio is so far 2-6 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the lowly Royals on Tuesday. Over his last eight starts Gaviglio has posted an atrocious 7.07 ERA and 1.77 WHIP.

The pick: Bundy’s form suggests he’s in line for another “long night,” while Gaviglio has regressed as the season has worn on. Expect these trends to continue and for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This Sunday night contest features a couple of pitchers who have been inconsistent this season. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jason Vargas, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Vargas is so far 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA. Last year the veteran was 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA for Kansas City. He’s failed to resemble that form whatsoever this season though and note that he’s been particularly terrible on the road with a 1-4, 8.91 ERA record in such instances.

Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Pivetta has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he’s still just 4-6 with a 4.98 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total fly “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 road night games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Trevor Cahill.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.43 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this year, but since the start of July he’s almost resembled the dominant figure on the mound he was about two years ago. Note though that Keuchel has been at his best on the road this season with the respectable 6-4, 3.00 ERA record to this point.

Cahill is so far 4-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits with three strikeouts in a no-decision to the Angels on Sunday. It wasn’t a great start, but overall the veteran has been solid, posting a 1.10 WHIP over 79.2 frames of work. Note as well that Cahill is 3-0 with 0.99 ERA at home this season.

The pick: With these two studs facing off on Saturday afternoon, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium. Play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard on the hill, while the home side goes with Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 8-2 with a 3.22 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. In his second start since returning from the DL he earned the victory and to go along with his respectable ERA he also owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work.

Nola is so far 13-3 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Nola is putting together the finest campaign of his career and he’s been unbeatable at home so far by going 8-0 with a 2.07 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 home games when the line is set between +150 and -150. This number is just a little high, play the “under.”

The set­up: This series features a couple of interesting match­ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. All signs point to a classic “duel” and that runs will be at an extreme premium. The visitors go with ace Blake Snell, while the Yankees go with former­ace Masahiro Tanaka.

The teams: Snell is so far 13­5 with a 2.18 ERA. Snell returned tom the ten­day DL and looked sharp in a victory over the Jays last Friday. Snell will be given the green light here and have the leash taken off in the Big Apple, note that he’s a very respectable 4­2 with a 2.93 ERA in all “day” games. Tanaka is so far 9­3 with a 4.08 ERA. Tanaka comes in off a couple of strong outings and his 1.07 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over 103 innings of work suggest he’ll be able to finish the regular season on a high. Note that he’s 2­0 with a 3.80 ERA in all “day” games this season.

The pick: Snell’s been better overall than Tanaka this year, but the home side hurler catches a break in this one facing the Rays’ anemic line­up. I’m expecting these two starters to go deep into the latter innings and for this one to to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to sneak “over” the number sooner rather than later. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Archer is so far 4-5 with a 4.36 ERA. Archer has looked shaky since coming over from the Rays, looking decent in one start and poor in the other. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA on the road this season.

Berrios is so far 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with six walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Thursday. Berrios for the most part has been solid this season, but this latest effort was a step back for sure.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 14 road day games in which its an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Archer’s inconsistencies come back to haunt him here, while I also believe Berrios continues to slide after his recent shaky performance. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I think that runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors go with German Marquez on the mound, while the home side goes with Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-9 with a 4.69 ERA. He most recently struck out nine and walked two in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Tuesday, ultimately giving up two runs over seven innings. Over 122.2 frames of work, Marquez sports a sharp 129:43 K/BB and note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA on the road to this point as well.

Verlander is so far 11-7 with a 2.50 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits and a walk while striking out 14 over eight innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Friday. It was Verlander’s third straight start and his fifth in his last six in which he’s given up two or fewer runs.

The pick: Coors Field is a difficult venue to throw in and like most, Marquez has had his difficulties there. However he’s been much better on the road and I think he carries over his momentum from his last start. And there’s also no reason not to think that Verlander won’t be focused here as well in this interesting inter-league match-up. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs will be at a premium this evening. The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 14-5 with a 4.17 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out nine over nine innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Yankees on Friday. Note that Porcello has been much better on the road (8-2, 3.81) than at home (6-3, 4.57) as well.

Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA. He most recently went six shutout innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Diamondbacks on Tuesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now thrown back-to-back quality outings and note that he owns an impressive 11.1 K/9 to this point as well.

The pick: These starting pitchers come in on top form. There’s no reason not to think that they can’t carry that recent momentum over here and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Chase Anderson, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb.

The pitchers: Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Previous to that though he’d thrown back-to-back quality efforts and he’s still holding his opposition to just a .221 batting average. I think Anderson bounces back here and improves upon his already impressive 100:48 K/BB over 125.1 frames of work this season.

Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.15 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits to go along with six strikeouts in a no-decision to Washington on Tuesday. Newcomb has now given up only three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined, striking out 19 over 20.2 innings of work.

The pick: This one has classic “duel” written all over it in my opinion. Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and play the “under.”

The set-up: This series features a couple of pretty “mediocre” match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. These starters have looked decent at times this year and very poor in others and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson, while the home side goes with Francisco Liriano. 

The pitchers: Gibson is so far 5-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Tribe on Monday. Overall Gibson has been solid this season, but note that the Twins have seen the total fly “over” the number in seven of their last ten when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150.

Liriano is so far 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. For the most part LIriano has struggled this season though, coming into this one sporting a rough 73:51 K/BB. Note as well that he owns a horrible 5.08 ERA at home so far. 

The pick: I’m expecting these erratic starters to get the hook early and for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Blake Snell, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada.

The pitchers: Snell is so far 12-5 with a 2.27 ERA. He came back from the DL to face the White Sox most recently and would give up one run over four innings. Snell’s “leash” will be taken off here and he actually comes in with an extra days rest. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA on the road. Respectable for sure.

Estrada is so far 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over Seattle over the weekend. Estrada has struggled overall this season, but this latest effort was clearly a big step in the right direction and I think the veteran has the track record and pedigree to now carry that momentum over into a strong finish to the 2018 campaign.

The pick: I’m expecting a classic “duel” and on Friday night and as such, I’m jumping all over the “under” in this one.

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. Both of these starters tonight have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka.

The pitchers: Minor is so far 8-6 with a 4.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Orioles on Saturday. Minor has been “hit or miss” though this year and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA on the road still.

Tanaka is so far 9-2 with a 3.76 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out nine over 4.2 innings in a victory over Boston on Sunday.

The pick: It’s hard to say anything negative about Tanaka, as overall he’s been very solid this year. Minor though has been a disaster on the road and I think the home side’s big bats are going to take advantage. The price is to steep, but the “over” is the correct call in my opinion.

The set-up: This series features some starting pitchers who have seen better days. This is one of those match-ups. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek.

The pitchers: Cashner is so far 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up ten runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out one over 1.2 innings in a loss to Texas on Thursday. Cashner had looked decent over the previous month before this dud, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this season.

Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.27 ERA. Stanek has looked decent in his limited time as a starters, but clearly the book is still out on the the 27 year old, as the sample size is simply too small. He posted a 5.85 ERA last year, so regression does seem imminent in my opinion after his recent run of competency.

The pick: I have zero confidence in either of these starters and I expect each to get chased early. So with that in mind, the prudent call is definitely the “over” in this particular matchup in my professional opinion.

The set-up: This series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium tonight with a couple of red hot hurlers squaring off. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Patrick Corbin.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-8 with a 3.80 ERA. He most recently went 6.1 scoreless frames against the Fish on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk while striking out seven in the victory. Over his last 24.1 frames he’s given up just two runs. He also has 129 strikeouts over 113.2 innings of work this year.

Corbin is so far 8-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He most recently struck out eight and walked zero in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Cobrin now has 12 quality efforts on the season and he’s holding the opposition to a .216 batting average. He also has an impressive 174 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP.

The pick: I’m expecting these starters to throw deep into this game and as a result, the “under” is the correct call in my professional opinion.

The set-up: Two struggling starters go head-to-head in this one and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano, while the home side goes with Jason Vargas.

The pitchers: Romano is so far 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Romano has been terrible overall this season, especially on the road where he’s just 1-5 with a 5.62 ERA.

Vargas is so far 2-7 with an 8.23 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. Vargas comes in with zero momentum, having now lost four straight. 

The pick: Vargas has struggled at home as well with a 1-3, 5.49 ERA record to this point. The total in this contest is high for a National League affair, but for good reason. I’m expecting these hurlers to get chased early and I look for this total to fly “over” the number sooner, rather than later. Play the “over.” 

The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and depending on how you want to look at it, this is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Edwin Jackson.

The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off six hits with one walk while striking out two over three innings in a loss to the Tribe on Sunday. He’s now lost three straight and posted a 1.21 WHIP to go along with just 67 strikeouts over 71 frames of work this season. Note that he owns a poor 5.25 ERA on the road as well.

Jackson is so far 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA. He most recently went 5.2 scoreless against the Jays in a victory. In his previous start though he was blasted for five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings. Jackson has been decent overall this year, but regression seems imminent in my opinion after his unreal start.

The pick: For this pick I’m focusing solely on the starting pitchers. Simply put, neither fills me with a lot of confidence. In fact, I’m expecting each to get the hook early and as such, everything points to the “over” as the correct call in this particular match-up.

The set-up: The Sunday Night ESPN game features an interesting matchup on the mound, as the visitors send Kyle Hendricks to the hill, while the home side goes with John Gant.

The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Over six of his last seven starts Hendricks has now failed to complete six innings. Note that he’s an uninspiring 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA on the road as well.

Gant is so far 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA. He was most recently used in relief against the Reds on Wednesday, giving up two earned runs and two walks over one frame of work.

The pick: These teams have woken up at the plate as the weather has warmed up, as Chicago has seen the total go “over” in 14 of 23 in July so far, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in five of its last seven against the division. While these teams played to the “under” on Saturday afternoon, everything points to a higher-scoring “slug-fest” in this one. Play the “over.”

The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Borucki, while the home side goes with Carlos Rodon.

The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits while striking out just two over six innings in a tough luck loss against Minnesota on Tuesday. Borucki has been the victim of poor run support to this point (just ten runs over his five big-league outings), but the Jays catch a break here today facing the erratic Rodon.

Rodon is so far 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with three walks over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. Rodon has admittedly looked decent of late, but I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The pick: And that’s because Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten against teams with losing records (and in four of its last six against southpaws). The Whitesox aren’t known for their offensive prowess, so that’s why it’s important to note that they’ve seen the total go “over” seven of their last ten home games when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and for this one to sail “over” sooner, rather than later.

The set-up: This National League series features some interesting matchups, and this is definitely one of them. The Brewers go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the Giants go with Johnny Cueto. Runs would appear to be at a premium.

The pitchers: Chacin is so far 9-3 with a 3.58 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits with no walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Washington on Monday. The veteran continues to produce consistent results, note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA on the road as well.

Cueto is so far 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks in a no-decision to the A’s on Sunday. While he’s struggled over the three starts since returning from the DL, I still don’t think there’s any need to panic. Regression was imminent after his blistering start, but the veteran has the track record and pedigree to return to form.

The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” the number in 45 of 75 against right-handed starters already this season, while San Francisco has seen the total go “under” the number in 35 of 60 against right-handed starters this year. Look for these

The set-up: Two starters who have looked brilliant at times and poor in others so far this season meet on Thursday night and everything points to a “slug-fest” in my opinion. The visitors go with Stephen Matz, while the home side goes with Nick Kingham.

The pitchers: Matz is so far 4-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He returned from the break to get shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Matz has been decent overall this year, but his latest start is definitely a worry if you’re a Mets fan.

Kingham is so far 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off four hits over 6.1 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Kingham has admittedly been quite sharp over the last month, however I’ll point out that the rookie still has a poor 5.51 ERA in all “night” games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total go “over” the number in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Pirates have seen the total go “over” in 52 of their last 85 as a home favorite -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who struggled over the first half meet on Thursday night and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Jake Junis, while the home side goes with Sonny Gray.

The pitchers: Junis is so far 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA. Junis most recently allowed one run off four hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Twins on Saturday. Junis looked decent, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA in all “night” games.

Gray is so far 7-7 with a 5.34 ERA. Gray gave up three runs over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets in his first start back from the All Star game. Gray’s been better of late and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that he’s still a terrible 3-6 with a 6.60 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: New York is the most prolific offensive team in the league and while the Royals aren’t known for their offensive prowess, the visitors catch a break here facing the erratic Gray. Junis has been consistently inconsistent all year and I believe he’ll predictably stumble in this difficult venue. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two starters who have struggled  matchup together on Thursday night and everything points to more issues for each in the second. The visitors go with Hunter Wood, while the home side goes with Alex Cobb.

The pitchers: Wood isn't expected to go long, just an inning or two. In his last start, he did allow one run and two hits (in just two innings). 

Cobb is so far 2-13 with a 6.17 ERA. He came out of the break and gave up four runs off four hits with three walks over 3.5 innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday. Unfortunately for Cobb a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA in friendly confines so far.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Baltimore has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last ten against the division. This number is a little low in my opinion, play the “over.”

The set-up: Two pitchers who put together great first half efforts go head-to-head in this National League contest on Friday afternoon and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel.” The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side goes with Jon Lester.

The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. In his last start before the break he was forced to leave early after allowing three runs (just two earned) off four hits over 2.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco. Overall though Flaherty has been consistent this year and he’ll surely benefit from the extra time off. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well.

Lester is so far 12-2 with a 2.58 ERA. The veteran has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and there’s no question that he’ll also have benefited from the extra time off because of the All Star Classic. Note that he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.98 ERA at home this season and 7-0 with a 2.22 ERA in all “day” games as well.

The pick: Recent form displayed by these starters, coupled with the overall situation point to runs being at a premium in this afternoon matchup. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The A’s hand the ball to Sean Manaea, while the Astros go with Justin Verlander. Manaea already has a perfect game this year and he’s been the backbone in Oakland’s rotation this season. Verlander continues to dazzle and in my opinion, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium in this one. 

The pitchers: Manaea is so far 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA. Most recently he’d give up two runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Wednesday. Manaea has now given up three or fewer runs in six straight starts and note that he’s a sharp 5-2 with a 3.15 ERA on the road this year.

Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.15 ERA. Verlander most recently allowed two runs with ten strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision to Houston Thursday. Verlander is well on his way to the Cy Young with his impressive 154:24 K/BB.

The pick: Verlander owns a 1.87 ERA in all “night” contests as well this season. And take it for what you will, but Oakland has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 35 this season when the total is either 8 or 8.5, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in 16 of 24 home games already this year when the total is in the same range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Two pitchers which had little expectations heading into the season, but who have been “better than advertised” collide on Tuesday and in my opinion, everything points to a bit of a “duel.” The visitors go with Jeremy Hellickson, while the home side goes with Joe Musgrove.

The pitchers: Hellickson is so far 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA. Hellickson comes in off an outing to forget though, giving up nine runs over 4.0 innings in a no-decision to Miami on Thursday. It should be noted though that it was reported just before his start that he was dealing with an illness, but that he’d still be able to take the mound. Clearly Hellickson was effected though. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA on the road this year.

Musgrove is so far 3-3 with a 3.79 ERA. Musgrove returns from the ten-day DL after throwing a bullpen session on Sunday. In his previous start he’d go seven scoreless against the Friars on June 29th. Note that Musgrove is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Not only has Washington already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 13 road games this season when the total in the contest is between 9 and 9.5, but it’s also seen it go “under” in 21 of its last 36 against clubs with losing records. And therefore it’s definitely worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go “under” in all six home games that it’s played this year when the total is either 9 or 9.5. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

The set-up: After yesterday’s high-scoring “slug-fest,” I’m expecting much more of a “duel” in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors go with Lucas Giolito, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Giolito is so far 5-7 with a 6.93 ERA. He enters off a horrible start on Tuesday against the Reds, allowing seven earned runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings. Note that things won’t get any easier for Giolito this afternoon, but with his job on the line, we definitely don’t have to question his focus.

Keuchel is so far 5-8 with a 4.12 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven in a victory over Texas on Tuesday. Keuchel has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-4 with a 4.96 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four as a road dog of +250 or more, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in ten of 13 already this season as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: After the Angels prevailed 3-2 yesterday, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these inter-league in-state rivals on Saturday night. The visitors go with Ross Stripling, while the Angels go with Deck McGuire.

The pitchers: Stripling is so far 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs off nine hits over six innings while striking out seven and walking one. Overall Stripling has been solid this year, but clearly this latest outing wasn’t an encouraging sign.

McGuire is so far 0-1 with a 7.56 ERA. McGuire most recently gave up five runs off five hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. He was then sent back down to the minors, before then being called up again to make this start. More than anything I’m basing this play on the fact that I think McGuire is going to struggle mightily again in this one.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Dodgers have already seen the total go “over” the number in 37 of 56 against right-handed starters this season, while the Angels have seen the total go “over” in four of their last six after allowing two runs or less in their previous outing. This number is just a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: Colorado had the night off on Thursday, while Seattle closed its series with the Angels with a 4-1 win. I think another low-scoring affair is in order in the Pacific Northwest in the opener of this series, as the visitors hand the ball to German Marquez, with the home side going with Felix Hernandez.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 6-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings while striking out nine in a dominant victory over the Dodgers on Saturday. Marquez has struggled at Coors Field this year, but he’s posted a highly respectable 3.07 ERA on the road.

Hernandez is so far 8-6 with a 5.11 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with five strikeouts over five innings in a win over Kansas city on Saturday. Hernandez has been much better at home this year with a sub-4.00 ERA, while also striking out 49 batters over 54.1 frames of work.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has already seen the total go “under” the number in 21 of 33 against teams with winning records this season, while Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in six of its last eight as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is indeed a tad high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The White Sox were busy losing 7-4 in Cincinnati last night, while the Astros were taking care of business with a series win in Texas this week, most recently a 6-5 extra-innings affair just last night. While these teams were both involved in higher-scoring games on Wednesday, I think that their Thursday series opener sets up as more of a “duel.” The White Sox go with Carlos Rodon on the hill this evening, while the Astros go with ace Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Rodon is so far 1-3 with a 4.55 ERA. Rodon comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Saturday allowing five runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in the eventual loss. Rodon has looked decent at times over his first five starts and shaky in others, but I will point out that the White Sox have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of 16 already this season as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range.

Verlander is so far 9-4 with a 2.12 ERA. Verlander gave up five runs off nine hits over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. The silver lining behind the sub-par performance was that he’d go on to strike out eight. Has Verlander finally hit the wall after his improbable turn-around in helping the Astros to a World Series, or will the veteran get back on track with another consistent effort here? I’m banking on the latter being the case, note that he’s 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA in all “night” games this season.

The pick: It’s definitely worth noting as well that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 11 as home favorite in the -250 to -330 range already this year. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The Twins lost 2-0 yesterday and clearly they’ll be eager to bounce back here after that listless effort. While Tuesday’s contest stayed well “under” the posted number, I think that we’re in line for more of a “slug-fest” on Wednesday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson.

The pitchers: Berrios is so far 8-6 with a 3.52 ERA. Berrios most recently got blasted for six runs off six hits with four walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. And now Berrios has to pitch against another tough National League opponent in this inter-league contest. Note that while he’s 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA at home, Berrios is just 2-4 with a 4.93 ERA on the road.

Anderson is so far 6-6 with a 4.18 ERA. Anderson most recently gave up one run off two hits with five strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Reds on Friday. Note though that it was just Anderson’s second quality start since May. Also note that he sports a terrible 5.29 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Despite yesterday’s result, note that Minnesota has still seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of 16 inter-league games this year. I’m banking on these starters getting the hook early and for this one to soar over, sooner rather than later.

The set-up: These teams went “under” the number in Game 1 of this inter-league series, with Boston coming out on top 4-3. Two more capable starters collide in the nation’s capital on Tuesday night and once again I believe that runs will be at a premium. The visitors go with Brian Johnson, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark.

The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA. Johnson went four innings in place of Steven Wright last week and manager Alex Cora will give him another shot here with several starters on the verge of returning from injury, but not ready quite yet. Johnson will obviously be looking to make the most of this opportunity and improve upon his respectable 2.45 ERA in all “night” games this season.

Roark is so far 3-9 with a 4.10 ERA. Roark comes off a tough loss to the Phillies on Thursday, allowing two runs (just one earned) off seven hits while striking out five over six innings. Roark has been far from perfect this year, but he does own a 3.75 ERA in all night games.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 on the road this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in eight of nine at home with a money line set in the same range. This number is a little high in my estimation, play the “under.” 

The set-up: Two veteran studs go head-to-head in the opener of this inter-league series and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a classic “duel!” The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer.

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 9-3 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off eight hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Porcello hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been better than what Boston could have possibly asked for, coming in with a strong 1.13 WHIP and 99:24 K/BB over 105 innings of work.

Scherzer is so far 10-4 with a 2.04 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off four hits over seven innings in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. Scherzer has gotten only nine runs of support over five June starts, leading to a 1-3 record, despite giving up only eight runs over 28 innings of work. Scherzer has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 4-1 with a 2.03 ERA at home and 7-0 with a 1.96 ERA in all “night” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has already seen the total go “under” the number in three of four this year as a road underdog in the +175 to +250 range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in 12 of 17 inter-league games. I’m expecting a contested/tight battle in the latter frames. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Normally steady, I think both of these starters will get chased early, which will in turn result in a higher-scoring over. The Braves go with Mike Foltynewicz, while the Cardinals go with John Gant.

The pitchers: Foltynewicz is 5-4 with a 2.14 ERA so far. Foltynewicz most recently gave up one run off one hit with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Monday. Foltynewicz has the elite ERA, but note that he’s only gone into the sixth inning or beyond just five times this year.

Gant is so far 2-2 with a 3.48 ERA. Gant made a spot start against Cleveland on Monday and he’d go seven scoreless in the gem. Gant has made the most of his time as a starter this year, but his last effort was atypical. Note that he owns a pedestrian 4.55 ERA in all “day” games to this point as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but St. Louis has seen the total go “over” the number ten of 15 home games this year when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while ATL has seen the total go “over” in 12 of 21 road games when the total is set between the same money line range. This number is a little low, play the “over.”

The set-up: The Yanks had the night off, while Boston played to a lower-scoring pitchers duel at home to the Angels Thursday. This is an important early series and despite each of these starting pitchers having played solidly to this point, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks in the opener. The visitors go with Eduardo Rodriguez, while the home side goes with CC Sabathia.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 9-2 with a 3.86 ERA. Rodriguez has been better than Boston could have possibly asked for this year, but note that he does enter off a terrible outing against the Mariners on Saturday, allowing five runs off seven hits over four innings.

Sabathia is so far 4-3 with a 3.18 ERA. Most recently he allowed two runs over 5.1 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Friday. Sabathia has been decent of late, but note that the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of 25 following a loss.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” in seven of its last ten “night” games. I’m expecting these hard-hitting line-ups to be the main story-lines in tomorrows summaries. Play the “over.”

The set-up: A couple of capable southpaws square off against each other in this National League series on Thursday afternoon and in my opinion, runs definitely will be at a premium. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Dodgers go with Clayton Kershaw.

The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-6 with a 4.26 ERA. Quintana comes in off an outing to forget against the Reds on Friday, giving up four runs off nine hits with two walks over five frames while striking out three. I think it’s important to note though that Quintana has been solid on the road with a 3.22 ERA, compared to a shaky 6.00 ERA at home.

Kershaw is so far 1-4 with a 2.94 ERA. Kershaw most recently gave up two runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. Kershaw was under a pitch count in his first start back from the DL, but he’ll be given a bigger leash this afternoon. Note that he owns a 2.10 ERA in all “day” games to this point.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 15 against southpaws this year, while LA has seen the total go “under” in 20 of 27 against left-handed starters this season. Expect a tight battle into the latter innings and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the afternoon.

The set-up: These teams played to a low-scoring battle in San Francisco’s 3-2 victory last night and in my opinion, everything once again points to a “duel” in the Bay on Wednesday. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Freeland is so far 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Freeland most recently went six innings and gave up two runs while striking out four in a win over the Mets on Thursday. Over 90.1 frames of work he’s posted a 77:31 K/BB.

Bumgarner is so far 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA. Most recently he gave up three hits while walking two and striking out eight over eight scoreless in his first win of the year over the Padres on Thursday. Bumgarner threw 69 of his 100 pitches for strikes and after two mediocre outings after returning from the DL, the veteran clearly looks poised for another strong performance.

The pick: Dual-ing southpaws on Wednesday night. Recent form by Freeland suggests that he can continue his success, while Bumgarner is no doubt rounding into form as well. I’m expecting these horses to battle into the latter frames and for this one to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: The Cards scored the 4-0 win in the opener of this inter-league series and I think that runs will once again be at a premium on Tuesday night. The Tribe go with their ace Corey Kluber, while St. Louis goes with Carlos Martinez.

The pitchers: Kluber is so far 11-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the White Sox on Wednesday, giving up one hit with one walk while striking out seven over seven scoreless. Kluber would throw 65 of his 96 pitches for strikes, while also inducing 15 swinging strikes. Kluber has now posted quality efforts in 15 of his 16 trips to the hill this year.

Martinez is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. Martinez hasn’t been at his best since returning from the DL, most recently he allowed seven runs off eight hits while striking out three over four innings in a setback to Milwaukee on Thursday. Martinez though has the track record and pedigree to return to form and he has to be feeling confident here, as he comes in with a sharp 2.29 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in nine of 12 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while St. Louis has seen the total go “under” in seven of eight inter-league contests (note as well that the Indians have seen the total go “under” in five of seven inter-league games.) This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: The Phillies took two of three in Washington over the weekend, but they lost the final 8-6 last night. The Yankees were also involved in a high-scoring, extra-inning slug-fest with Tampa, as they ultimately came out on the short-end of a 7-6 setback. Suffice it to say, I think runs are going to be much harder to come by in the opener of this interleague series. The visitors go with Jonathan Loaisiga, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez.

The pitchers: Loasigia is so far 1-0 with a 3.12 ERA. Loasiga’s debut saw him shut down the Rays, but he’d come back down to Earth in his second start by allowing three runs off six hits with four strikeouts over 3.2 innings in a no-decision against the Mariners last week. Loasigia has shown great potential and I think he’ll match his counterpart inning for inning.

Velasquez is so far 5-7 with a 4.82 ERA. Velasquez most recently gave up four runs off four hits over 6.1 innings while also striking out eight in a no-decision to St. Louis on Tuesday. Note that Velasquez owns a decent 1.28 WHIP to go along with a 97/29 K:BB over 80.1 innings.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York has already seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of nine inter-league contests this season. While these teams come in off a couple of high-scoring series, the opener of this one points to the “under” as the correct call.

The set-up: A few years ago, Danny Duffy and Dallas Keuchel were the two hottest hurlers on the planet. Oh how the times have changed. That said, each has the track record and pedigree to turn things around in 2018 and I think we’re in store for a bit of a “duel” on Friday night.

The pitchers: Duffy is so far 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA. Duffy will be eager to reverse his fortunes here after getting shelled for seven runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five against the Astros on Saturday. Across 15 starts Duffy owns a 1.55 WHIP and a 69:40 K/BB. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA in all “night” games.

Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.15 ERA. Keuchel comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Saturday, giving up two unearned runs off six hits with one walk over six innings while striking out five and winning his first game since mid May. To go along with his sub-par 4.15 ERA, Keuchel also sports a 71:23 K/BB.

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 33 on the road this year, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in eight of ten as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. I look for these two determined starters to battle deep. Play the “under.”

The set-up: Two teams which can struggle to put runs on the board at times square off against a couple of capable starters. In my opinion, this one sets up as a classic “duel.” The Padres go with Tyson Ross, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner.

The pitchers: Ross is so far 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Ross comes in off a difficult loss to the Braves on Thursday, giving up three runs off three hits while striking out four over six frames. Ross’s velocity was up on his fast-ball to over 91 MPH and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 3-2, 3.11 ERA night record.

Bumgarner is so far 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed three runs off five hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Bumgarner continues to try and work himself back into game shape, but he certainly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around quickly.

The pick: The Padres have struggled on the road this year with a 16-19 record. They’ve also struggled to plate runs away from friendly confines, having seen the total go 11-23 on the road. Bumgarner faces the perfect opponent to get back on track, while I also expect Ross to continue his steady progression. Add it all up and this one has “under” written all over it.

The set-up: These teams can both put runs on the board in a hurry, but I think this one sets up as a classic “duel” in the opener of this three game set. The Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale, while the Twins go with Jose Berrios.

The pitchers: Sale is so far 6-4 with a 2.75 ERA. Sale comes in off another strong outing against Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up one run off two hits and four walks over six innings while striking out nine in the victory. Sale’s back on track and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.56 ERA record on the road.

Berrios is so far 7-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Berrios received a no-decision in his last start against the Tigers despite allowing only one run with seven strikeouts over six innings. Berrios continues to impress and he’ll also be looking to keep the momentum rolling and improve upon his tiny 0.95 WHIP and fantastic 91:15 K/W over 89.2 frames of work this season (note that Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home this season as well.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 39 this year on the road, while Minnesota has seen the total go “under” in 18 of 31 at home. This number is a little high, play the “under.”

The set-up: Both of these teams can struggle to put runs on the board at times and that was certainly the case again in the Phillies 4-1 win yesterday. With Philadelphia sending its ace Aaron Nola to the hill and with the Brewers countering with the improving Chase Anderson, I fully expect runs to be at a premium again this afternoon.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 8-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Nola most recently struck out ten and gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Rockies on Tuesday. To go along with his elite ERA, note that Nola also sports a minuscule 0.93 WHIP.

Anderson is so far 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA. Anderson most recently went seven scoreless against the Cubs on Tuesday, striking out six and allowing only one hit. While his ERA is pretty “mediocre,” note that Anderson comes in with a sharp 1.17 WHIP, while holding his opposition to a meagre .217 batting average.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 34 against teams with winning records, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 35 against clubs with winning records. This number is a little high, play the “under.

The set-up: Madison Bumgarner has so far been pretty “mediocre” since returning from injury for the Giants, while Alex Wood has struggled of late for the Dodgers. These are two pitchers which have enjoyed a lot of success throughout their careers and clearly neither can be happy at where they are at this point of the 2018 campaign. I firmly believe though that their focus/hunger will prove to be the difference in this total, as everything points to a classic “duel” on Saturday night.

The pitchers: Bumgarner is so far 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed four runs off six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Monday. It was only the veterans second start of the season and clearly he still has some rust to shake off. Note that Bumgarner had a very respectable 3.26 ERA on the road last year though.

Wood is so far 1-5 with a 4.43 ERA. Wood was removed after 4.2 innings of work against the Giants last Saturday after dealing a minor leg injury. Wood has admittedly struggled of late, but remember that he was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA last overall last season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has already seen the total go under the number in a whopping 16 of 21 this season against left-handed pitching. I predict these starters battle deep into the latter frames and I look for this total to fall under at the end of the night.

The set-up: While these teams combined for just two runs in the Marlins 2-0 upset victory on Friday, Saturday’s interleague contest definitely sets up as a “slugfest” in my opinion. Miami goes with the erratic Wei-Yin Chen, while Baltimore goes with confirmed “gas can” Alex Cobb.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA. Chen most recently was smashed for four runs off six hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Chen has now given up ten earned runs over his last 10.1 innings of work spanning three starts. Note that he’s been terrible on the road as well with an 0-3, 10.31 ERA record.

Cobb is so far 2-8 with a 7.23 ERA. Cobb most recently gave up nine runs off 11 hits and one walk while striking out five over 3.2 innings in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. To go along with his brutal 7.23 ERA, note that Cobb also sports a terrible 1.77 WHIP and 37:14 K/W over 56 innings of work. Additionally note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA at home.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Miami has already seen the total go over the number in 10 of 14 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go over in five of eight this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has “offensive fireworks” written all over it.

The set-up: Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, so both the Reds’ Matt Harvey and the Pirates’ Chad Kuhl catch a bit of a “break” on Friday night. This number is slightly too large in my opinion.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA. Harvey comes in off a loss to the Cardinals on Friday, allowing five runs and three walks with five strikeouts over six innings. Harvey has been given another chance in the rotation to try and “right the ship,” and while that may or may not happen, I will point out that the Reds have seen the total dip below the number in ten of 15 already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and in 17 of 28 against right-handed starters.

Kuhl is 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA. Kuhl most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Kuhl is 0-2 over his last three trips to the hill, despite allowing only six runs spanning 17.1 frames. Kuhl though has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has already seen the total go under the number in all three home games that it’s played in this season when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 and in 16 of 26 against the division. Because of all of the listed factors above, play the “under.”

The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has looked decent at times this year and also horrible in others. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and a result, the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. San Francisco goes with Dereck Rodriguez, while the Marlins go with Dan Straily.

The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA. After a decent outing against the Phillies in his debut, Rodriguez predictably came back down to Earth against the Nationals on Saturday, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks. While Miami is a favorable matchup usually for most pitchers, I still think the book is still out on the Giants’ rookie hurler.

Straily is so far 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Straily most recently gave up four earned runs over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Saturday. Note that Straily owns a poor 7.11 ERA at home, compared to 2.67 on the road.

The pick: Both starters come in off horrible performances and in my opinion, I believe it’s “foreshadowing” for more ineptitude in this one as well. I expect each to get chased early and as a result, I’m playing the over.

The set-up: The Reds beat the Cards 6-3 at home on Monday and I think they’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. The Royals on the other hand will be looking to get back on track after a 3-2 loss at Oakland last night. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, meaning the under is the correct move in my opinion.

The pitchers: Sal Romano gets the call for the visitors and he’s so far 3-7 with a 6.23 ERA. Romano most recently allowed five runs and a walk over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday. Romano has been poor of late, but a date against the anemic Royals is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my estimation.

Ian Kennedy is so far 1-6 with a 5.76 ERA and he’s being handed the ball by the home side. Kennedy though comes in off perhaps his best outing of the year, giving up one run off seven hits and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Like his counterpart today though, I believe that a date against the light-hitting Reds is just what he’ll need to get back on track.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 already this season following a win, while the Royals have seen the total go under in 25 of 41 following a loss. Play the under.

analysis soon

The set-up: It’s the opener of a three-game set between these National League opponents and in my opinion, this one has “duel” written all over it. It’s southpaw vs. southpaw on Monday night, as San Francisco goes with Madison Bumgarner, while Miami goes with Wei Yin Chen.

The pitchers: Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Bumgarner finally returned from injury on Tuesday and he looked decent against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks by allowing two runs, while striking out three and walking none over three innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that Bumgarner owned a 3.26 ERA on the road last year.

Chen is 1-3 with a 5.86 ERA to this point. Most recently the leftie gave up two runs off six hits with two walks and two strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Chen has been a disaster on the road this year (0-3, 10.31), but he’s been “lights out” at home (1-0, 1.06).

The pick: Take it for what you will, but San Fran has already seen the total go “under” the number in 18 of 34 on the road, while Miami has seen it go “under” in 17 of 30 at home this season. Expect these two starters to fight into the latter innings and for this total to fall “under” at the end of the night.

The set-up: The Yanks have taken the first two games of the sub-way series. Yesterday the Yankees came from behind to win 4-3. While that contest stayed below the posted number, I think that Sunday’s finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The Yanks go with Luis Severino in this one, while the Mets hand the ball to Seth Lugo.

The pitchers: Severino is 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA. Most recently Severino gave up one run over eight innings in a win over Mariners on Monday. Let’s face it, Severino has been downright dominant this season and it’s basically impossible to say anything negative about the right-hander. This play however is more about the overall “situaiton.” 

Lugo is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA. Lugo has been used as a reliever this season and he’ll make this start in place of the injured Noah Syndergaard. Over his last two appearances he’s thrown a total of 87 pitches. Lugo is not expected to see many innings in this one, which puts added pressure on the Mets bullpen.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Yankees has already seen the total go over the number in six of eight this season as a road favorite of -175 or more, while the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in five of their last seven against right-handed starters. I think the Yanks take advantage here and while I’m not ready to lay such a steep price, this one definitely has “offense” written all over it. Play the over.

The set-up: These teams combined for ten runs in the Astros victory yesterday, but I believe we’ll see a much lower-scoring duel on Saturday night. The Astros hand the ball to Charlie Morton, while the Rangers go with Mike Minor.

The pitchers: Morton is so far 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Morton will be looking to return to form after his first loss of the season, giving up six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings to Boston on Sunday. No need to panic if you’re a Morton fan though I don’t think as he owns elite numbers across the board still, including the 2.84 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 92 K’s overall. Note as well that he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the road.

Minor is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA so far. Minor most recently gave up four earned runs off six hits over five innings while striking out two in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners on Thursday. Minor’s ERA leaves everything to be desired, but he does own a respectable 1.35 WHIP thus far. Note that Minor has been at his best at home this year as well with a 3-2, 4.11 ERA record.

The pick: I think it’s significant to note that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in 16 of 27 against the division this year, while Texas has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 34 against divisional opponents. This number is just a little high, play the under.

The set-up: It’s the “Subway Series” for the first time this year and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel” in the first game. The Yankees will hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, while the Mets counter with their ace Jacob DeGrom.

The pitchers: Tanaka is 7-2 with a 4.79 ERA so far. Tanaka most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with one walk over 5.1 innings while also striking out seven in a victory over Baltimore on Saturday. Tanaka has admittedly been “hit or miss” this season, but I’m expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to be at his best in this high-profile matchup.

More than anything though this pick is based on the sheer dominance of Jacob DeGrom (4-0, 1.49) who received a no-decision despite allowing only one run off seven hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out 13 against the Cubs on Saturday. DeGrom now owns a Senior Circuit-low 1.49 ERA and his 1.04 WHIP has to be considered elite. Also note that he owns a fantastic 98:21 K/W over 72.1 frames of work.

The pick: Fortunately for the sometimes volatile Tanaka, he faces an opponent which has struggled with offensive consistency all year. And especially it’s seemed whenever the Mets have had their “ace” on the mound. This one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. Play the under.

The set-up: These teams played to a wild, high-scoring slug-fest on Wednesday night, but in my opinion Thursday’s afternoon matchup sets up as more of a lower-scoring “duel.” In this one the Dodgers send Dennis Santa to the hill, while the Pirates will go with Jameson Taillon.

The pitchers: Santana is so far 1-0 with a 12.27 ERA. Santana was thrown to the wolves in his first big-league start, as he’d be called in in relief at Coors Field where he’d be smashed for five runs off six hits over 3.2 innings. However, the Dodgers were mashing the ball in that game and Santana managed to pick up the victory in the end. Over ten starts in the minors Santana posted a 2.54 ERA and 65:16 K/W over 49.2 innings.

But this pick is based mainly on the improved play of Taillon, who is 3-4 with a 3.97 ERA. Taillon most recently struck out six over eight scoreless with just one walk in a win over the Cards on Friday. Taillon now owns a superb 1.16 WHIP and a sharp 60:18 K/W over 65.2 innings.

The pick: LA has seen the total go under in 11 of 15 already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go under in 15 of 25 “day” games. Play the under.

The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes into your head when you think about these two teams? For me its big time offensive fireworks. But that wasn’t the case on Tuesday night though as Cleveland came out on top of a lower-scoring pitchers duel in the 3-2 decision. However, a higher-scoring slug-fest would appear to be in the cards on Wednesday afternoon though as a couple of suddenly struggling starters collide.

The pitchers: The Brewers go with Chase Anderson, who is 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA. Anderson comes in off another shaky outing, allowing four runs off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a loss to the White Sox on Friday. Anderson has now failed to go at least six frames in five of his last seven starts and it’s important to note that he’s a poor 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA on the road to this point.

The Indians go with Carlos Carrasco, who is 6-4 with a 4.50 ERA. Carrasco most recently gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Friday. Carrasco has completely fallen off the rails of late, posting a disturbing 6.37 ERA over his last seven seven starts to go along with a terrible 1.8 HR/9. Note that he owns a 5.59 ERA at home and an even worse 5.90 ERA in all “day” games.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Milwaukee has already seen the total go over the number in seven of 12 road games this year when the total is set between 8 and 8.5, while Cleveland has seen the total go over in 11 of 16 home games when the total is set between 8 and 8.5. These two erratic starters get chased early and this one flies over the number sooner, rather than later.

The set up: St. Louis would take five of seven from Miami last year. The Marlins come in having lost seven straight, while the Cardinals remain competitive, having gone 31-25 so far this season and 6-3 in their last nine.

The pitching match-up: Jose Urena gets the call for the Marlins and he’s so far 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA. Urena has been unlucky so far this year though, as his team continues to struggle at the plate. Despite his pedestrian ERA, note that he does own a sharp 1.17 WHIP. Urena has had success at Busch Stadium as well, going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA.

The Cards go with Carlos Martinez, who returns from a stint on the disabled list with a 3-2, 1.62 ERA record. Martinez owns a 1.08 WHIP over eight starts this season and he’s 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in five starts at home.

The pick: Clearly Urena has thrown well enough of late to earn a victory, unfortunately for the hard-throwing right-hander his team has had difficulty giving him any sort of offensive support whatsoever. Take it for what you will, but Miami has already seen the total go under the number in 22 of 40 this year against clubs with winning records, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of 20 against teams with losing records. Expect these two starters to battle and for this total to stay under once it’s all said and done.

The set up: This is the opener of a short two-game interleague matchup. The Orioles come in desperate as they’ve lost seven straight, not surprisingly owning the worst record in all of MLB. The Orioles’ bats come in rested though, as after losing 8-5 to the Yanks on Saturday, they were rained out on Sunday.

The Mets have been terrible of late as well, coming into this contest having lost four straight and sitting at 27-30 overall, bad enough for fourth place in the NL East.

Both of these line-ups though will be eager to “get off the schneid” as they each face a couple of confirmed “gas cans” on the mound tonight.

The pitching match-up: Alex Cobb gets the call for the Orioles and he’s so far 1-7 with a 6.80 ERA. He also owns a horrible 1.81 WHIP and over his last three starts he’s been destroyed for nine earned runs spanning 10.2 innings of work. Additionally, opponents are hitting a whopping .356 off him.

Jason Vargas gets the nod for the Mets and he’s 2-3 with an 8.53 ERA thus far. Vargas comes in off a a decent outing in his last start, giving up no runs over five innings. Despite that performance though, Vargas has still been rocked for 19 earned runs over 12.1 innings spanning his last three starts.

The pick: No need to overanalyze this one. Both teams are desperate for a spark and each comes in well rested. These pitchers have been a couple of the worst in the league and when you combine those two factors, the correct move is the “over” in my opinion.

The set-up: The Royals lost their series with the A’s over the weekend and fell 5-1 in yesterday’s finale, while the Angels would hold on for a 3-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Both of tonight’s starters have struggled at times this season, but I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring under on Monday night.

The pitchers: Kansas City goes with Danny Duffy (2-6, 5.71 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the season, allowing one run off four hits while striking out four over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Minnesota on Tuesday. As mentioned above, Duffy has admittedly struggled this so far this season (54:31 K/W over 64.2 innings), but take it for what you will, as note that he’s consistently been at his best in all “night” games with a 2-1, 3.72 ERA.

LA goes with Nick Tropeano (3-3, 3.80) who comes in off a strong outing himself, holding the Tigers to two runs off seven hits with no walks and five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual win. Tropeano comes in on top form, having given up three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. I’ll point out as well that Tropeano has been solid in all night contests by posting a 3.90 ERA this season.

The pick: KC has seen the total go under in 15 of 26 on the road already, while LA has seen the total dip below the number in 16 of 30 at home. I think there are enough significant factors pointing towards the “under” as the correct call in this one.

The set up: When I play a total in Major League Baseball, the primary factor I’m looking at is the starting pitchers. And in this particular contest, a couple of red hot hurlers collide on Sunday afternoon, making the “under” the correct O/U move in my opinion.

The pitching match-up: The Phillies go with Jake Arrieta, who is so far 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA. Last year with the Cubs Arrieta was 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. Most recently the right-hander would go seven shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing six hits and two walks to go along with five strikeouts. Over his last two starts Arrieta has posted a 12:1 K/W and note he’d go on to finish the month of May with a minuscule 0.90 ERA spanning 30 innings of work.

Derek Rodriguez has been named the starter for the Giants in this one, as he’s been cleared to play after taking a liner off his right leg in the first inning of his last start. Rodriguez threw a bullpen session on Friday and note that he was sharp in his time at Triple-A Sacramento by posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 50.1 innings.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but not only has Philadelphia seen the total go under the number in 17 of 26 this season in all games when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, but it’s also seen it go under in eight of 14 against southpaws (San Fran has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 33 vs. right-handed starters as well.) Look for these two starters to go deep into this one and play the under.

The set-up: Pittsburgh and St. Louis played to a lower-scoring under in the Pirates 4-0 victory yesterday and while this afternoon’s contest might have a few more runs than that, I still think that everything points to another “duel” on Saturday.

The pitchers: The Pirates send Chad Kuhl to the mound and he’s 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 61.2 innings overall. In his most recent start Kuhl would hold the Cubs to one run over six innings.

The Cardinals hand the ball to Luke Weaver, who is 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 58.1 innings of work. Weaver most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Weaver has had varying success against the Pirates throughout his limited time, holding them to six runs over 17 innings of work.

The pick: Pittsburgh is averaging 4.73 runs per game, while the Cards are averaging 4.39. Take it for what you will, but I still think its worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last seven after shutting out an opponent, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in six of its last ten after getting shutout. Both Kuhl and Weaver have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others, but each comes in looking to take advantage of a couple line-ups that are currently struggling to produce. Play the under.

The set-up: LA comes into this one in third place in its division after splitting its last ten games overall. The Angels are 30-26, which sets them 4.5 games back of the Astros. The Rangers have won six of their last ten overall, but they’ll be eager to get untracked here after falling 6-1 in Seattle last night, splitting their four-game series with the M’s.

The pitching matchup: Texas sends out the venerable Bartolo Colon, who is so far 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 11 appearances, nine starts this year. Colon most recently gave up three runs off five hits in a no-decision against the Royals. Colon faced the Angels already this season and he’d go three innings of relief and allow one run. Last year though Colon gave up nine runs off seven hits over 2.5 innings against LA.

LA will hand the ball to 21-year old Jaime Barria, who is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA over six starts this season. Barria’s peripherals though suggest that his early numbers are unsustainable, with a poor ground ball rate of 39.3 percent to go along with an 11.4 percent HR/FB rate.

The pick: Barria could be in luck today though as LA has been mashing the ball of late, posting 11 home runs over its last seven games. Texas though is eager to get back on track here as well after last night’s poor effort. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. Play the over.

The set-up: The Marlins and Padres opened a four-game series on Memorial Day, entering as two last-place clubs (Miami in the NL East and San Diego in the NL West). The Marlins won 7-2 on Monday but the Padres have bounced back with consecutive wins, 9-5 on Tuesday and 3-2 last night, when they scored twice with one out in the ninth inning to pull out the one-run victory. The Marlins managed only three other hits in the loss (all singles), giving Miami its fifth loss in six contests (Marlins are now 20-35, 12 1/2 games out of first ). The 24-33 Padres are in last place but just 6 1/2 games out in the NL West and will now vie for the series win when they host the Marlins on Thursday for the finale of their four-game set.

The pitching matchup: Lefty Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 5.22 ERA) will get the nod for the Marlins, opposed by the Padres' Jordan Lyles (1-1, 3.83 ERA). Chen is coming off a strong outing against Washington on Saturday, however, he settled for a no-decision despite allowing just one run and three hits over a season-high 7 1/3 innings. He has yielded three runs over 17 innings in three starts (1.59 ERA) after being tagged for nine runs in three innings of a 13-4 road loss to the Chicago Cubs on May 9. Chen won his only career start against the Padres on June 13, 2016, even though he surrendered four runs in six innings at San Diego. Lyles has struggled since registering 10 strikeouts while allowing just one hit in 7 1/3 scoreless innings of a victory over Colorado on May 15, yielding nine runs over 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He was able to escape with no-decisions in both outings, despite giving up 14 hits and six walks (Sd actually won both contests). Lyles owns a 1-1 record and a ghastly 7.00 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances against Miami in his career.

The pick: The highlight of Lyles' season was his second start on May 15 against the Rockies at Petco Park, when he was perfect for 7 1/3 innings, the second-longest perfect-game bid in franchise history. However, in his two starts since, Lyles has given up nine runs on 14 hits and six walks with eight strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings (7.84 ERA). What's more, Lyles will be making his sixth career appearance and fourth start against the Marlins on Thursday and he owns a 7.00 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP and a .292 opponents' batting average against Miami. Chen's numbers have improved drastically over his last three starts (see above) but I won't ignore his 5.22 ERA for the season. Make the Over an 8* play.

The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers opened a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals with Monday's 8-3 victory. The 35-20 Brewers have now won four straight and are 7-1 on their current homestand. Milwaukee enters the second contest of the series tonight, having scored eight or more runs in three consecutive games, one shy of tying the club record. Monday's loss snapped a two-game winning streak for the Cardinals, who have now lost nine of 15 to slip five games back of the Brewers at 28-23, as well as a half-game behind the second-place Chicago Cubs (28-22)

The pitching matchup: The Cardinals send Michael Wacha (5-1, 2.88 ERA) to the mound and the Brewers counter with Zach Davies (2-4, 4.74 ERA). Wacha lost his season debut back on March 31 but has only allowed more than two runs in just one of his nine starts since then, going 5-0 in that span (Cards are 7-2). He recorded his third straight quality start Wednesday, allowing two runs (one earned) over 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision against Kansas City. What's more, Wacha is 4-0 with a 4.60 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) against Milwaukee. Zach Davies was Milwaukee's ace in 2017, going 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA (Brewers were 20-13 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark at plus-$880). However, Davies spent nearly a month on the disabled list with a rotator cuff injury in 2018 and will make just his second start since returning in tonight's game. He was hardly sharp in his return to the rotation last Thursday against the New York Mets, allowing four runs and six hits and failing to record an out despite facing three batters in the fifth inning of a 5-0 loss. Davies is 2-1 with a 4.22 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals.

The pick: Wacha's been terrific for the Cards in 2018 and enters tonight's contest having held opponents to two runs or less over his last seven starts, while posting a 1.94 ERA during that stretch thanks to an improved curveball to complement the rest of his arsenal. I expect Davies to be much better in his second start since coming off the DL and will make the Under a 10* play.