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The Phillies were hammered in a 14-2 loss at AT&T Park last night, and that was with their ace Cole Hamels on the mound. It's not going to get any easier tonight with a win-less rookie getting the start. On a positive note, they might have more success against veteran Ryan Vogelsong than they had against Madison Bumgarner last night. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - David Buchanan will be on the mound for Philly, still in search of his first win of 2015. Buchanan (0-5, 8.76 ERA) gave up seven runs on eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis in his last start. The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong, and the veteran gave up five runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings against Philly earlier this year. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Phillies have owned Vogelsong, hitting a combined .342 against the right-hander. Ryan Howard is 5-for-10 with three RBIs lifetime versus the veteran. 

3. X-Factor - The over is 15-5-1 in the Phillies last 21 overall, and 6-0-1 in their last seven versus San Francisco. 

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Houston Astros 3-1 last night, and I expect another low-scoring contest at Tropicana Field Saturday afternoon when the two teams will square off in the middle game of this three-game series.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Astros will hand the ball to their ace Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.14 ERA) who's been exceptional all season long. He has the lowest ERA in the American League and had tossed 19 shutout innings before giving up three runs in six innings his last start. The Rays will counter with Jake Odorizzi (4-5, 2.47) who's had a great season as well. He will make his first start since June 5 due to an oblique injury, and what better place to make the comeback than at the Trop where he's compiled a 1.64 ERA over five starts this season.  

2. Houston's Bats - The Astros have scored only 17 runs over their last seven games with nine of them coming in a 9-4 win at Cleveland. They've scored four over their last four games.  

3. X-Factor - 10 of the last 11 meetings at the Trop have gone under the total.  

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The San Francisco Giants have lost eight of their last nine overall, and they now sit in third place in the NL West, 5.5 games back of the Dodgers. The good news is that they host the Phillies for a three game series prior to the All Star Break, and I like the Giants to get back on track tonight in the series opener. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Cole Hamels will be on the mound for the Phillies, coming off another dominant outing. Unfortunately for Hamels though, he's still win-less in his last seven starts. He has a losing road record, going 3-4 with a 3.64 ERA outside of Philly, and he's been hit hard by the Giants in his career. San Francisco will counter with Madison Bumgarner, who was roughed up in Washington in his last start. Bumgarner is 3-2 with a 2.49 ERA in nine starts at AT&T Park so far. 

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Buster Posey has missed the last few games to rest a sore hamstring, but he's likely to be back in the lineup tonight. Posey is 9-for-18 (.500) lifetime versus Hamels. 

3. X-Factor - The Phillies have seen the total go over at a rate of 14-5-1 in their last 20 overall.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Los Angeles Angels 7-2 last night when the teams opened a four-game set at Safeco Field. The M's recorded a season-high 19 hits while the Halos had eight, but I expect both teams to struggle at the plate tonight in what should be a low-scoring contest.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Angels will hand the ball to Hector Santiago (5-4, 2.40 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts conceding just a total of two runs on eight hits and four walks over 20 innings of work, seven innings of one-run ball against the M's on June 28 included. The Mariners will counter with Mike Montgomery (4-2, 1.62 ERA) who's been terrific over his last three starts as well, conceding only one earned run over 23 2/3 frames. The 26 year old rookie will make his first career start against the Angels tonight, a situation usually favoring the pitcher.  

2. Situational - The under is 7-1 the in Angels last eight games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 8-1-1 in their last 10 on the road when facing a left-handed starter. None of Montgomery's last four starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 have gone over.  

3. X-Factor - Santiago has the current members of the Mariners limited to a .196 batting average.  

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Dodgers have split the first two games of this home series against the Phillies, but they are a heavy favorite in tonight's Game 3 with their ace on the mound. We've seen plenty of runs scored in this series so far, but tonight's game looks like it could be a pitcher's duel. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Clayton Kershaw (5-6, 3.08 ERA) allowed just one run on five hits over seven innings in a 2-1 home loss to the Mets his last time out. While he has struggled for much of the season, his numbers at home remain impressive. He's 4-2 with a 2.18 ERA in eight starts at Chavez Ravine. The Phillies counter with rookie Adam Morgan, who has looked impressive in both his two big league starts. 

2. Previous History - Kershaw is 2-0 with a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts versus the Phillies, and only the Mets have scored fewer runs than Philly away from home. 

3. X-Factor - The Dodgers have really struggled against left-handers this season, ranking 25th in the majors in runs scored, batting just .243 against southpaws. 

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Atlanta Braves upset Max Scherzer and the Nationals at Turner Field last night, and they've now won five of their last six home games. They should have an excellent chance to extend that winning streak tonight, hosting the last place Phillies. Philadelphia has lost four straight, and seven of it's last eight overall. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Julio Teheran will get the start for the Braves, and the 24 year old remains impressive at home. Teheran (5-4, 4.94 ERA) didn't have his best stuff in a loss at Pittsburgh in his last outing. That's no surprise though, as he's struggled on the road all year. The right-hander is still 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA at home though. The Phillies counter with rookie Adam Morgan, who makes his second career start. 

2. Previous History - The Braves have seen the total go under in eight of their last 10 overall, and 11 of their last 13 as a home favorite with Teheran on the mound. 

3. X-Factor - Teheran hasn't faced the Phillies in 2015, but he was 2-1 with a 1.17 ERA in four starts last season.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The AL West-leading Houston Astros will visit the AL East-worst Boston Red Sox for game 1 of a three-game set at Fenway Park Friday night. The Astros are riding a four-game winning streak and have averaged five runs per game over their last five while the Red Sox also have won four of their last five and trounced the Blue Jays 12-6 yesterday. I think we can expect to see plenty of action over the plate in Boston tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Red Sox will hand the ball to Justin Masterson (3-2, 5.58 ERA) who was sharp in his comeback from a five-week stint on the DL due to tendinitis in his right shoulder when he tossed five innings of one-run ball at Tampa Bay. He's been quite poor home at Fenway this season though conceding 14 runs in 20 innings of work for a 6.30 ERA. The Astros will counter with 26 year old right-hander Dan Straily who will make his season-debut tonight taking over the recently demoted left-hander Brett Oberholtzer's spot in the rotation. He's not been particularly impressive in the minors with Triple-A Fresno going 6-6 with a 4.06 ERA for the year and this is a bad time to face a surging Red Sox offense coming off a big Thursday.  

2. Jose Altuve - The Astros's second baseman is having another productive year batting .298 for the season and he's been very good of late batting .368 over a 10-game hitting streak. He's enjoyed recent visits to Fenway as well going 6-for-10 in his last two games there. 

3. X-Factor - Only one of the Red Sox's last six games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 has gone under.   

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (8*)

The Blue Jays bats came alive on Canada Day at Rogers Center, and the Jays defeated the Red Sox by a score of 11-2. They will look to salvage a split in the final game of this series tonight, and I think we could see another high scoring affair with a couple of below average pitchers starting in this one. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Wade Miley will be on the hill for the visitors, and he's improved since a rough start to the season. Miley (7-7, 4.38 ERA) gave up just a couple runs on five hits over 6.1 innings in a loss to Tampa in his latest start. He allowed four runs on eight hits in a 7-0 home loss to the Jays earlier this season. The Jays will counter with rookie southpaw Matt Boyd, who gave up three home runs in his debut. 

2. Toronto Bats - Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson and Justin Smoak all went deep yesterday, and the Jays still lead the majors in scoring with 435 runs (67 more than the Yankees). 

3. X-Factor - Jose Reyes is 6-for-13 (.462) in this series so far, and he's 4-for-8 lifetime versus Miley. 

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

We've seen plenty of action over the plate in the first two games of this series as the Pittsburgh Pirates have defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-4 and 9-3. Runs should come fairly easy for both teams today as well considering the pitching match-up, and I think the value is on the over here.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Tigers will hand the ball to Kyle Ryan (1-1, 4.56 ERA) who missed his last start due to a rainout. He has struggled lately conceding a total of nine runs on 13 hits in 10 2/3 innings in his last three outings and has only 11 strikeouts but eight walks over 23 2/3 innings this season. The Pirates will counter with Francisco Liriano (4-6, 3.21 ERA) who started the season excellent but has had a tough time of late. Liriano has conceded a total of seven runs on 13 hits in 12 2/3 innings over his last two starts and he has a 5.59 ERA against the Tigers lifetime. 

2. The Tigers Bats - The Tigers have a team batting average of .276 against left-handers for the season which is among the best marks in baseball, and they have a team batting average of .293 against Liriano. 

3. X-Factor - The Pirates Neil Walker is off a 4-for-6 performance with two homers last night and is 6-for-12 in the series so far. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

The Tampa Bay Rays bats have been very quiet so far in this series, but the Cleveland Indians have been all the hotter hammering in 21 runs over the first three games of the series. The number on the total looks way too low for me considering the potential in both teams line-up, and I think we should see this one fly over by quite some margin. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Rays will hand the ball to Matt Moore who will make his first start for almost 14 months. The 26 year old southpaw made just two starts in 2014 before suffering an elbow injury that forced him to have Tommy John surgery. He has not gone deeper than 5 1/3 innings in any of his rehab outings and has a 3.78 ERA in four career outings versus Cleveland who will counter with its struggling ace Corey Kluber (3-9, 3.66 ERA). Kluber is 0-4 with a 3.97 ERA in his last five starts while yielding 10 walks and three homers. He has a 3.66 ERA and has been nowhere near the form that saw him claim the AL Cy Young trophy last year.  

2. Cleveland's Bats - The Tribe have averaged 5.33 runs per game over their last six and have hit southpaws hard all season long scoring a major league best 119 for the year.  

3. X-Factor - David DeJusus and Evan Longoria are a combined 8-for-22 against Kluber in previous meetings.  

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

The Detroit Tigers host the Chicago White Sox at Comerica Park this afternoon, and both teams are coming off a loss. I'm expecting to see a pitcher's duel in the Motor City, with two capable starters on the hill today. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Alfredo Simon will get the nod for the Tigers, and he was not sharp in his latest start. Simon only lasted 2.2 innings, giving up seven runs on eight hits in a loss to the Yankees in New York. He has been far better in Detroit than he has been on the road, with a record of 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA at Comerica Park. The White Sox hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, who is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts in the afternoon. 

2. Previous History - The under is 6-0-2 in White Sox last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter, and six of Detroit's last eight versus southpaws have gone under. 

3. X-Factor - Miguel Cabrera is hitting .226 in nine games against the White Sox this season. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Houston Astros have feasted on Colorado's pitching staff so far in this series, and I think we should see another slugfest at Coors Field this afternoon. Both teams turn to the back end of the rotation today, and these two starters might struggle to keep the ball in the park. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Collin McHugh will be on the mound for Houston, and he was roughed up in his last start. McHugh (6-3, 5.08 ERA) gave up eight runs on nine hits over just three innings in a home loss to Seattle. He surrendered a pair of home runs in that game, and he's given up a dozen home runs in his last nine starts. The Rockies hand the ball to David Hale, who has surrendered six home runs in his last three starts. 

2. George Springer - The Astros slugger is 7-for-14 with a pair of home runs in the series so far, and he's riding a 10 game hitting streak. 

3. X-Factor - The Rockies have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 11 home games versus Houston. 

Selection: This is a play on the Astros/Rockies to go OVER the total (8*)

The San Francisco Giants and the Seattle Mariners have split the first two games of this home and home series, and now the series shifts to Seattle. We will see two of the best pitchers in baseball starting in one of the most notorious pitcher's parks, but with an incredibly low number here, I like the over. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Mariners send Felix Hernandez to the mound, and he failed to get out of the first inning in his last start. Hernandez (9-3, 3.38 ERA) gave up eight runs while recording just one out before getting pulled in a 10-0 loss at Houston. He had been roughed up at home by the Yankees just two weeks prior, and it looks like there could be something wrong with the Mariners ace. The Giants counter with Madison Bumgarner, who gave up five runs on six hits in his last start on the road. 

2. Mariners Bullpen - The Mariners relievers have really struggled this season, posting an ERA of 3.71, ranking in the bottom half of the majors. Fernando Rodney (2-3, 6.26 ERA) has lost his job as the closer to Carson Smith. 

3. X-Factor - The Giants have seen the total go over in six of Bumgarner's last seven starts on the road.

Selection: This is a play on the Giants/Mariners to go OVER the total (8*)

The Detroit Tigers will head to Cincinnati for the second leg of this home and home series, and tonight's game will feature two of the best pitchers in the major leagues. Neither team has been great offensively, and it's likely that we see a low scoring pitcher's duel here in Cincinnati tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - David Price will get the nod for the visitors, and he's coming off back-to-back complete games. Price (6-2, 2.44 ERA) has given up just one run on 12 hits, striking out 19 in 18 innings in his last two starts. The Reds hand the ball to Johnny Cueto, who is 2-1 with a 1.25 ERA in five starts at home so far. He's 25-7 with a 2.13 ERA at Cincinnati since 2012. 

2. Batter vs Pitcher - The Reds lineup is hitting just .192 off Price in previous meetings, with more strikeouts (14) than hits (10). 

3. X-Factor - The Reds have a long history of playing low scoring games when Cueto pitches in Cincinnati, the under is 22-6-3 in Cueto's last 31 home starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Tigers/Reds to go UNDER the total (10*)

We saw a wild game in Tampa last night, but with the Rays and the Nats heading back to Washington for the second leg of this home and home series, I expect to see a low scoring tilt in the nation's capital. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - Jordan Zimmerman will be on the mound for the Nats, and he's been very sharp at Nationals Park throughout his career. Zimmerman (5-4, 3.74 ERA) is coming off a couple sub-par performances, but a home game against the light hitting Rays looks like a good spot for the veteran. The Rays counter with Matt Andriese, who picked up his first major league win in his last start. 

2. Injuries - Both Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman are on the DL, and those are two big bats missing for Washington. They had a combined 46 RBIs before being sidelined by injuries. 

3. X-Factor - Only the Mariners and the White Sox have scored fewer runs than Tampa in the American League. 

Selection: This is a play on the Rays/Nats to go UNDER the total (8*)

The San Diego Padres spent plenty of money this off-season in an attempt to bolster their offense, and so far it looks like money well spent. San Diego is third in the National League in scoring, thanks to the big bats of Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. They host the Oakland A's at PETCO today, and I think the total looks a little low considering both teams rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored, and each team turns to the back end of their rotation. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Padres will send Andrew Cashner to the mound, and he's really having a tough season. Cashner (2-8, 4.16 ERA) gave up four runs on seven hits in 6.2 frames in a no-decision at Atlanta in his last outing. His last home start was a disaster, allowing six runs on 11 hits over 4.2 innings. He's still in search of his first home victory. The A's counter with Scott Kazmir, who has not been sharp on the road. 

2. Kazmir On The Road - The Over is 6-1-2 in Kazmir's last 9 starts as a road favorite.

3. X-Factor - The Padres have seen the total go over at a rate of 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The San Diego Padres spent plenty of money this off-season in an attempt to bolster their offense, and so far it looks like money well spent. San Diego is third in the National League in scoring, thanks to the big bats of Justin Upton and Matt Kemp. They host the Oakland A's at PETCO tonight, and I think the total looks a little low considering both teams rank in the top 10 in the majors in runs scored, and each team turns to the back end of their rotation. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Padres will send Tyson Ross to the mound, and he's coming off yet another unimpressive outing. Ross (3-6, 3.81 ERA) gave up three runs on nine hits over six frames in a loss at Atlanta. He hasn't been any better at home, in fact his ERA is higher at PETCO than it is on the road. The A's counter with Jesse Hahn, who was chased from his last start early, not before giving up four runs on seven hits. 

2. Derek Norris - He arrived in San Diego via the trade that sent Hahn the other way, and he leads all National League catchers with 39 RBIs. 

3. X-Factor - The Padres have seen the total go over at a rate of 7-2-1 in their last 10 home games.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

1* free play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total...

 The Houston Astros are still at the top of the AL West, but they've cooled down of late winning just one of their last four games. The Chicago White Sox won the opener of a three-game set at Minute Maid Park 6-3 in extra-innings last night, but we might see a pitcher's duel here this afternoon. .  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The White Sox will give the ball to Jose Quintana (2-5, 4.67 ERA) as he'll seek to bounce back from one of his worst starts of the year. He's had three sub-par starts on the season but has held opponents to two runs or less in six of his nine starts. He's been immense over his last two outings away from home surrendering just two runs on 10 hits while hurling seven innings in both games, and he's undefeated in four career starts against the Astros (all Chicago wins), going 1-0 behind a 3.63 ERA. Houston will counter with its ace Dallas Keuchel (6-1, 1.98) who's been their best pitcher. 

2. Chicago Bats- The White Sox are really struggling at the plate, ranking dead last in the American League scoring just 173 runs. 

3. X-Factor - Keuchel has been having a fine season so far, and 10 of his last 12 starts as a home favorite have gone under the total. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (Free)

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Atlanta Braves for the opener of a three game set at Great American Ball Park Monday night. They split a four-game set in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago as the Braves won the opener of that series 5-1 with the same pitching match-up as tonight. I expect quite a few more runs to be scored in this game and I'm playing the over.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Braves will hand the ball to Shelby Miller (4-1, 1.66 ERA) who is coming off a complete game shut out against the Phillies on May 5. He was tagged for three runs on six hits over seven innings against the Reds in his last start prior though and he was 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati last year. The Reds will counter with Mike Leake (2-1, 2.47 ERA) who is coming off back-to-back dominant performances after first hurling eight scoreless innings at Atlanta followed by another eight scoreless innings at Pittsburgh, surrendering just a combined total of eight hits. He is 4-2 in seven career starts against the Braves with a 2.03 ERA, but keep in mind that Atlanta has averaged 5.6 runs per game over its last five.. 

2. Bullpens - Neither pitcher can expect much back-up from the bullpen as Cincinnati's has compiled the worst ERA in the majors on the season (5.47 ERA) while Atlanta's has not done much better sitting fourth from the bottom with a 4.76 ERA.

3. X-Factor - Brandon Phillips is 6-for-17 with a homer against Miller over previous at bats.   

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

Last night's meeting between the Chicago White Sox and the Minnesota Twins saw just one run scored as the White Sox prevailed in a 1-0 victory. The first game in this four game set saw a total of 14 runs though, and I expect to see plenty of action over the plate in Game 3 today as well. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (0-1, 18.00 ERA) who'll make his second start of the year today just coming off the disabled list with a right elbow inflammation following his season debut in a 11-0 loss at Detroit. He was charged with six runs on six hits over just three innings in that game and is likely to be in for more pain here as he's 0-2 with a 5.92 ERA in four starts against Chicago over his career and with the current White Sox roster batting a combined .324 over 142 at bats against the right-hander. The White Sox will counter with Hector Noesi (0-2, 5.23 ERA) who'll make his third start of the season after surrendering six runs on eight hits over a combined 10 1/3 innings in his first two outings. He faced the Twins over 4 2/3 innings in his season opener as he allowed two runs while walking six and he's posting a 4.32 ERA against Minnesota over his career. The current Twins roster is batting .290 over 131 at bats against Noesi.

2. Trends - 10 of the last 13 meetings have gone over the total and the over is a convincing 9-1-1 in the Twins last 11 games as a home favorite and 4-1 in the White Sox last five away from home. 

3. X-Factor - Minnesota's bullpen ranks among the worst in the majors on the season as its relievers has posted a combined 4.11 ERA over 70 innings so far.  

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been swinging hot bats of late, putting up a total of 21 runs over their last two games alone. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been rather effective as well coming off a three game set against the Giants where they scored a total of 16 runs and I expect another slug-fest at Dodger Stadium tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The D'Backs will hand the ball to Rubby De La Rosa (2-1, 4.68 ERA) who has given up a fair amount of runs over two road starts on the year already. He was extremely poor away from home last season as well, going 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA over 10 starts. Carlos Frias will toe the slab for the Dodgers making his first start of the year after hurling 2 1/3 innings as a reliever. He finished last season with a 6.12 ERA over 15 outings, two starts, and I'm not convinced he will be up for the challenge here. 

2. Trends - The over is 5-1 over the last six meetings in L.A. and 23-8-1 in Dodgers last 32 home games overall.  

3. X-Factor - The Dodgers ranks near the top of the majors with 32 homers on the year, with 19 coming at home.  

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

The Washington Nationals have scored 26 runs in consecutive wins at Atlanta, and they head to New York tonight to begin a new series with the Mets. With the Nats apparently heating up at the plate, I think we can expect another high scoring game against the Mets tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Stephen Strasburg will be on the mound for the Nationals, and he's off to a poor start this season. Strasburg (1-2, 4.88 ERA) gave up four runs on eight hits over six innings in a loss to Miami in his latest outing. The Mets will counter with Jacob deGrom, who was roughed up in his last start. He gave up six runs on eight hits over just five innings in a loss to the Yankees.

2. Dernard Span - The Nats leadoff man is 7-for-12 with a pair of home runs and four RBIs in the last two games, and he's now batting .317 for the season.

3. X-Factor - The Nats have seen the total go over in five straight road games, and five straight versus division rivals.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total

 (8*)

The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins are tied at 1-1 in this three game set at Marlins Park as they come into the rubber-match tonight. None of the previous games in the set have seen more than seven runs, and I doubt this contest will be any difference as I think we'll have an interesting duel on the mound. 
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Marlins will hand the ball to Mat Latos (0-3, 7.31 ERA) who was lit up against the Braves in his season opener but has improved significantly since. He's conceded just seven runs on 17 hits over 15 1/3 innings since with a 14-to-5 strikeout/walk ratio. He faced the Mets over six innings last year, yielding no earned runs as he surrendered only five hits while fanning five. The Mets will counter with seasoned veteran Bartolo Colon (4-0, 2.77 ERA) who's off to a great start his 18th season in the majors. Colon has conceded just eight runs on 22 hits over 26 innings of work, fanning 23 batters while surrendering just one walk. He's 4-2 with a 3.10 ERA in six starts against the Fish lifetime.
2. Lack Of Homers - Miami has mustered just 11 home-runs on the year for the second worst mark in the majors while the Mets have managed just 15. To put it in perspective, even combined the two teams have less home-runs than the league-leading Toronto and Houston who's sitting with 28 a piece. 
3. X-Factor - The Fish's Michael Morse is on a three game hitting streak but is just 2-for-11 against Colon over previous meetings.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total

 (10*)

The Milwaukee Brewers (3-15) are coming into this contest against NL Central division rivals and top-team the St. Louis Cardinals with the worst record in baseball on the season. I the chances of a lower scoring game with two very strong hurlers on the hill this Sunday.

 Here are my keys to the game: 

 1. Pitching - The Cardinals will hand the ball to Lance Lynn (1-1, 1.56 ERA) who's had an excellent start to the season. Lynn has allowed just four runs on 13 hits with 27 strikeouts over 17 1/3 innings on the year and held Milwaukee to one run on six hits over five innings in a 4-2 home win on April 15. That performance was certainly no fluke as he's to 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA in his last seven starts against the Brewers. Milwaukee will counter with Mike Fiers (0-3, 6.75 ERA) who has had some starts already this season but has put up good numbers against the St. Cardinals in his career. In five career starts versus St. Louis, Fiers has a 1.72 ERA.

2. Cards strong starting pitchers numbers - St. Louis is undefeated over its last four away from home and has won 25 of the last 34 meetings in Milwaukee, five of them behind Lynn. The Cardinals have not had a smaller ERA from their starters in their first 16 games since it was at 1.78 in 1943.

3. X-Factor - The Cardinals bullpen has the third best mark in the major leagues for the season with a 2.03 ERA. Milwaukee's ranks in the bottom half with an ERA of almost the double, 3.91. 

Selection: This is a play on the St. Louis [email protected] Milwaukee Brewers to go under the total.(8*)

 (8*)

The Braves will wrap up this three game series with the Mets on Thursday, looking to avoid a sweep with a win in the finale at Citi Field. We'll see a pair of quality pitchers face off in this pitcher friendly park, and the result should be another low scoring game.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Bartolo Colon will be on the mound for the Mets, and he's won all three of his previous starts. Colon (3-0, 2.25 ERA) allowed just a single run on six hits over seven innings in a win over Miami in his latest start. Colon beat the Braves in Atlanta prior to that, and he pitched well against Atlanta last season as well (2.45 ERA in three starts). The Braves hand the ball to Julio Teheran, who is 2-0 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts.

2. Injuries  - The Mets are still without a few keys players, most notably David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud.

3. X-Factor - The Nnder is 6-2 in Teheran's last 8 starts against the Mets.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total

(10*)

The Red Sox are sitting in the top spot in the AL East, with a record of 8-5. They play Game 1 of a three game series versus the Rays in Tampa tonight, and they'll be up against a red hot pitcher. Boston's bats are likely to be silenced tonight, and a play on the under looks good.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Chris Archer will be on the hill for the home team, coming off a pair of impressive starts. Archer (2-1, 1.37 ERA) has tosses 14 scoreless innings, giving up just three hits in wins over Toronto and Miami on the road. The Red Sox will counter with Wade Miley, who was roughed up by the Nationals in his last start.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Mike Napoli is 1-for-12 lifetime versus Archer, while Pablo Sandoval is 0-for-3 versus the right-hander.

3. X-Factor - These two teams have seen the total go under in five of the last six meetings in Tampa.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total(10*)

The Oakland Athletics moved into first place in the AL West with a win over Kansas City last night, and they've been pretty impressive at the plate so far this season. This series is tied at 1-1, and I think we could see a few runs scored by both team in the rubber match at Kauffman Stadium Sunday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Scott Kazmir will get the call for the A's, and he's been quite impressive so far. Kazmir (2-0, 0.69 ERA) suffered from cramps in his last start versus the Astros, and he's had trouble in previous meetings with the Royals. He's 1-5 with a 4.93 ERA in seven starts versus Kansas City over the last three seasons. The Royals counter with Danny Duffy, who has surrendered eight runs on 14 hits over 11.1 innings so far this season.

2. Batter vs Pitcher - Eric Hosmer comes in swinging a hot bat, he's hitting .326 with nine RBIs so far, and he's hitting .400 lifetime versus Kazmir.

3. X-Factor - The over is 5-2-3 in Kazmirs last 10 road starts.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total .(8*)

The Cleveland Indians are really struggling at the plate so far this season, and they wasted another solid start from Cy Young winner Corey Kluber last night in Minnesota. The Twins aren't exactly ripping the cover off the ball either, and I think we'll see another low scoring tilt in Minnesota on Saturday afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Phil Hughes will be on the mound for the Twins, and he's been a far better pitcher for Minnesota than he ever was for the Yankees. He's surrendered seven runs on 16 hits over 12 innings, losing his first two starts of the season. Both of those came on the road, and he will fancy his chances of turning in a better effort at home, where he was 7-5 with a 4.25 ERA in 17 starts last season. The Indians will counter with Danny Salazar, who will make his 2015 debut.

2. Hitting - The Indians have only managed to score 29 runs so far, only Houston and Chicago have fewer among American League teams. The Twins have scored just one more (30 total).

3. X-Factor - Hughes was always a better pitcher in day games than he was under the lights, and he was 11-2 with a 3.26 ERA in 16 starts in the afternoon last season.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Detroit Tigers have certainly lived up to all expectations so far this season, but the same can not be said for the White Sox. These teams will play Game 1 of a three game set at Comerica Park on Friday afternoon. Both teams send their respective aces to the mound, in what might just be a pitcher's duel.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - David Price will be on the hill for the home team, looking to continue his perfect start to the season. Price (1-0, 0.00 ERA) was the victim of some poor defensive play in his last start, surrendering three runs (all unearned) over 5.2 innings in a 9-6 win at Cleveland. He was very sharp at home in Detroit on Opening Day, tossing 8.2 scoreless innings. The White Sox will counter with Jeff Sarmardzija, who signed a big contract with Chicago in the off-season.

2. Batter vs Pitcher - Jose Abreu, Tyler Flowers and Adam LaRoche are a combined 1-for-20 lifetime versus Price.

3. X-Factor - These two teams have failed to go over the total in four straight meetings in this series, and the total has gone under in each of David Price's last four home starts.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total

.(10*)

The Toronto Blue Jays won in a slugfest at Rogers Center in Game 3 of this series versus Tampa last night. Toronto will try to salvage a split with a victory in Game 4 tonight. It's not going to be easy, as the Rays starting pitcher for tonight's game has been awful tough in previous visits to Toronto.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Chris Archer will be on the hill for the Rays, and he's coming off a stellar performance on the road in Miami. Archer tossed seven scoreless frames, allowing only one hit in a 2-0 win over the Marlins. To say he's had success against the Jays in the past would be understating it, he's 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five starts at Rogers Center since 2012. The Jays counter with Aaron Sanchez, who looks to improve on a shaky performance in his debut. The 22 year old looked great at the end of last season, posting an ERA of 1.09 in 33 innings out of the bullpen.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are a combined 6-for-42 with six strikeouts versus Archer lifetime.

3. X-Factor - The under is 11-3-1 in Archers last 15 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

.(10*)

The Kansas City Royals will look to continue their hot start to the season in Minnesota on Wednesday, playing Game 2 of this three game series. The Royals won last night by a score of 12-3, remaining unbeaten with a 7-0 record. I think we'll the bats of both teams cool off tonight, with a pair of quality pitchers on the mound.

Here are keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Edinson Volquez will get the nod for the visitors, and he was dominant in his first outing of the season. The 31 year old surrendered just one run on four hits through eight innings in a 4-1 win over Chicago. He performed particularly well under the lights in 2014, going 10-3 with a 2.74 ERA in 21 starts for the Pirates. The Twins counter with Kyle Gibson, who owned Kansas City going 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA last season.

2. Batter vs Pitcher - Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez are a combined 1-for-16 lifetime versus Gibson.

3. X-Factor - The Royals own the best bullpen in the majors, and after seven games their relief pitchers have yet to surrender a run.

Selection: This is a play on the Kansas City Royals

.(10*)

The Chicago White Sox struggled at the plate to start the season mustering only seven runs over their first four games. The bats have come alive of late, but I think they're about to cool off again as they open a two game set at Cleveland tonight. The same goes for a Cleveland Indians team that were swept in a three game set against the Tigers. With two struggling offenses facing a pair of quality starting pitchers, runs could be hard to come by tonight.


Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The White Sox will hand the ball to Jose Quintana who will be looking to bounce back from an atrocious performance as he surrendered five runs on nine hits over five innings of work. He's coming off a decent enough 2014 season though where he posted a 3.32 ERA over 32 starts as he allowed 10 runs on 26 hits over 23 innings against the Tribe. Cleveland will counter with Carlos Carrasco who will look to build on an outstanding performance his first start of the year. The 28 year old hurled 6 1/3 scoreless innings giving up only three hits with 10 strike-outs in a 2-0 win at Houston. He was 8-7 with a 2.55 ERA over 40 outings, 14 starts last year and compiled a 2.30 ERA over 21 appearances at home.  
2. Trends - If history is any indication we should be in for a low-scoring contest here as none of the last five meetings in Cleveland have gone over the total. The under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings overall as well and 11-1 in Carrasco's last 12 starts. 
3. X-Factor - Cleveland might struggle to solve Quintana here as they're 0-3 against left-handed starters on the year, batting a lowly .216 against southpaws.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to stay under the total

(10*)

The Milwaukee Brewers have won only one game on the season so far, but the way they've struggled at the plate it's not that big of a surprise. The team has mustered 16 runs over their first five games and will visit the St. Louis Cardinals this afternoon, a team that has been involved in quite a few low-scoring contests so far and is sending its ace to the mound. I think this game has a lot factors pointing towards a low-scoring contest.    
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Cardinals will hand the ball to Adam Wainwright who's coming off a healthy seven days of rest since tossing six scoreless innings as he conceded only five hits with six strike-outs and no walks in his season-debut at Wrigley's. He's off a 2014 season where he posted a 2.38 ERA over 32 starts and posted a 2.97 ERA over 30 1/3 innings of work against the Brewers. Milwaukee will counter with Matt Garza who was torched for four runs on eight hits over five innings his first start of the season. He's better than that though, and even if he struggles initially we can rely on a solid Brewers bullpen that has compiled a 2.53 ERA with 24 strikeouts and three walks in 21 1/3 innings so far on the season. 
2. Trends - None of the last four meetings in St. Louis have gone over the total and the under is 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 at home overall. Combine that with the under going 9-1 in Brewers last 10 road games and I think we're having a good case for this game going under the total as well. 
3. X-Factor - The Cardinals Matt Carpenter has been as productive as ever so far on the season going 6-for-20 over his first five games. He's only 1-for-11 against Garza over his career though and might struggle today as well. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

The Dodgers and the Diamondbacks have both split their first four games of the season, and Arizona took the first game of this series last night by a score of 4-3. The visitors are a heavy favorite to even the series tonight, with their ace on the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Clayton Kershaw gets the nod for the Dodgers, and he was not as sharp as usual on opening day. The southpaw was 11-1 with a 1.85 ERA on the road last year, and he won three of his four starts versus the D'Backs. Arizona will hand the ball to a rookie, and 22 year old Archie Bradley is said to have the potential to become the team's ace.

2. Previous History - The under is 9-4 in Kershaw's last 13 starts vs. Diamondbacks.

3. X-Factor - Ted Barrett will be calling balls and strikes today, and the under is 7-2-2 in Barrett's last 11 games behind home plate.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected]'Backs to go UNDER the total .(10*)

The San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres are coming into this contest with quite the opposite records. The Giants have won three of their first four for the season while the Padres have lost all but one, last night's 1-0 loss in extra innings to the Giants in the opener of this four game set included. I expect to see quite a few more runs tonight, and the number set for the total seem really low to me.  
Here are my keys to the game: 
1. Pitching - The Padres will hand the ball to Brandon Morrow who will make his first start for the club after coming over from the Blue Jays where he spent the last five seasons. He compiled a 5.67 ERA over 13 outings, six starts, last season. He conceded nine runs on 24 hits over 17 innings in spring training and could be in for a rough outing here against a very competent Giants offense. San Francisco will counter with Tim Lincecum who struggled on the road all season long last year, going 3-6 with a 6.02 ERA over 14 outings. He's been roughed up pretty badly in spring training as well, posting a 5.95 ERA over 19 2/3 innings of work. 
2. The Padres Improved Offense - It is a much improved Padres line-up from last season when they scored the least amount of runs of any team in the majors. They had tallied 14 runs over their first three games with each game climbing over the total before getting blanked Thursday.
3. X-Factor - Nori Aoki spent last year with the Royals but after the loss in the World Series he realized the grass was greener in San Francisco and decided to join the Giants. He's had a great start with the club, going 7-for-17 with three walks over his first four games.  

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (*)

.(8*)

The Detroit Tigers won their home opener, defeating the Twins by a score of 4-0 on Opening Day. Game 2 will be an afternoon start in the Motor City, and the home team is a big favorite to come away with another win. I think we'll see a few runs scored here today, as these teams dig deeper into their rotation.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Ricky Nolasco will be on the hill for the visitors, and he had a rough season in 2014. He was even less effective on the road than he was at home, going 3-6 with a 6.27 ERA in 14 appearances. His numbers in day games were also pretty ugly, with a record of 2-7 and a 7.78 ERA in 11 starts in the afternoon. The Tigers will counter with Anibal Sanchez, who was roughed up in his final outing during spring training.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - Victor Martinez was 1-for-4 in Game 1 of this series, and he's 5-for-7 lifetime versus Nolasco.

3. X-Factor - Both these teams ranked among the worst in the American League in ERA by reliever in 2014.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total

.(8*)

The Kansas City Royals will be fighting for their lives tonight as another San Francisco Giants win would make them the 2014 World Series Champions. We have seen plenty of runs in this series, but the books are still keeping the lines low and I think we're getting a good price on the over in Game 6.

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to the Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA) who will have a ton of pressure on his shoulders tonight. The inexperienced 23 year old is making his second start in the World Series, as he gave up two runs on eight hits with a homer over 5 1/3 innings in the 7-2 win in Game 2. Ventura is relying on his fastball, which indeed is pretty good, but the problem is those can easily turn into home runs and especially the way the Giants have been swinging their bats lately. The visitors will counter with Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA), and with 12 years in the major leagues and pitching in the last World Series as well he is certainly not lacking any experience. That being said, he did surrender four runs on six hits over five innings in the last match-up versus Ventura six days ago, and struggled on the road the whole regular season going 4-8 with a 4.60 ERA. 

2. The Giants offense - They have really been swinging hot bats recently, scoring 16 runs over their last two games. The Royals previously so hailed bullpen has started to show weakness,  with Herrera and Davis conceding three runs over the last two innings in Sunday's 5-0 loss.

3. X-factor - Billy Butler has owned Peavy in previous encounters, hitting an impressive .424 over 33 at bats with three homers and three walks. 

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

The hosts got off to a terrible start last night as James Shields conceded three runs in the first inning to open the 2014 World Series. The Giants could run away with the game eventually winning it 7-1, but I expect a tighter contest with much fewer runs tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to Yordano Ventura (14-10, 3.20 ERA) who will make his first post-season start at Kauffman. The 23 year old Dominican has conceded five runs on 10 hits over 12 2/3 innings in two road starts after making an unsuccessful relief appearance at home against the A's in the Wild Card game. He was showing decent numbers at home during the regular season though, going 6-7 with a 3.21 ERA over 16 starts and certainly seems to be favored by pitching under the lights where his ERA was 2.86 compared to a 4.50 ERA in day-light games. The Giants will counter with Jake Peavy (7-13, 3.73 ERA) who will make his third start in this playoff. The veteran has been successful in his previous two, surrendering only two runs on six hits over 9 2/3 innings of work. He has not conceded more than two runs in any of his last eight starts, and only one of his last five starts have gone over the total. 

2. The Bullpens - The Giants bullpen has the best stats in the post-season, as San Fran's relievers are showing a 1.69 ERA over 37 1/3 innings only giving up seven runs while fanning 32. Madison Bumgarner went seven innings last night before Lopez and Strickland came on and each tossed one scoreless inning. The Royals bullpen is ranked third, compiling a 1.98 ERA over 41 innings conceding nine runs while fanning an impressive 42 batters. It was solid last night as well, with Collins and Fraser combining to hold the Giants scoreless through the final three innings. 

3. X-factor - Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain has yet to figure Peavy out, going a combined 4-for-26 versus the right-hander.  

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

The San Francisco Giants are coming to Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of the 2014 World Series. Both teams send their respective aces to the mound tonight, both backed by incredibly solid bullpens. Don't expect to see a slugfest here in Kansas City. 

Here are my keys to the game:  

1. Pitching - The Royals will hand the ball to James Shields (14-8, 3.21 ERA) to start off this World Series. Now, Shields have admittedly not had his best playoff of his career so far, but he is not called "Big Game James" for nothing and I expect him to deliver the goods tonight. His last home start was decent enough, as he limited the Angels to two runs on six hits over six innings, and he tossed nine scoreless innings conceding only four hits in his only start against the Royals this season, also that outing at home. The Giants will counter with Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) who has been nothing short of spectacular so far this post-season. He has two shutouts, and has given up only six runs (five earned) on 19 hits striking out 28 over 31 2/3 innings of work. It might suit MadBum fine to start this series on the road, as he was showing his best stuff away from home during the regular season going 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA over 18 starts.  

2. The Bullpens - The Giants bullpen has the best stats in the post-season, as they're showing a 1.78 ERA over 35 1/3 innings, only giving up seven runs while fanning 30 and limiting their opponents to a .164 AVG. The #2 ranked bullpen? The Royals of course, who have compiled a 1.80 ERA over 35 innings, conceding seven runs fanning an impressive 36 batters and limiting opponents to a .170 AVG.  

3. X-factor - KC's right fielder Norichika Aoki is still hitless against Bumgarner, going 0-for-13 lifetime.  

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go Under the total (10*)

The Kansas City Royals can complete the sweep against the Baltimore Orioles in front of their home crowd this afternoon. They claimed last night's game 2-1, and a similar scoreline is more than likely as the teams once again will enter the pitcher friendly Kauffman Stadium for Game 4.

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Orioles will hand the ball to Miguel Gonzalez (10-9, 3.23 ERA) who had a solid finish to the regular season going 3-2 behind a 1.69 ERA in September, but this will be his first start since Sep 28. He was not successful in the six innings hurled so far against the Royals this year surrendering four runs (three earned) on six hits over six innings, and if we track back to 2013 his numbers were even worse, conceding six runs on eight hits over just 4 2/3 innings of work. The Royals will counter with Jason Vargas (11-10, 3.71 ERA) who's coming off a solid display at Los Angeles in the ALDS, as he allowed a pair of runs on three hits over six innings on Oct 2. This will be the first time the veteran lefty will face the Birds this season, but he has proved himself capable of keeping the Orioles bats quiet in the past showing a 1.93 ERA over eight starts lifetime.

2. Home cookin' - All of the Orioles last six post-season road games, and all of Gonzalez last seven on the road have gone under the total. Only one of the last eight meetings in KC have gone over the total.

3. X-factor - The Royals bullpen has been phenomenal lately. It worked four perfect innings last night, and has limited the opponents to a .179 AVG while registering a combined 1.59 ERA over the last 16 games.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*) 

The Pittsburgh Pirates are set battle it out with the San Francisco Giants for the NL Wild Card where the winner will be rewarded with a five game series against the Nats. I expect a low scoring game with both teams sending hot pitchers to the mound. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Giants will hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (18-10, 2.98 ERA) who probably doesn't mind a trip to Pittsburgh at all. The 25 year old lefty has done better on the road than at home this season, going 11-4 with a 2.22 ERA over 18 starts away from home. He finished the regular season strong, going 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA in August followed by a 3.08 ERA in his four starts in September. The Pirates will counter with Edinson Volquez (13-7, 3.04 ERA) who finished the season in an even stronger manner. The veteran did not allow a single run in his last two starts, hurling seven innings in both of them conceding a total of only seven hits. He's undefeated over the last two months, showing a 2.11 ERA in August and a 1.08 ERA over his five September starts. 

2. Trends - Only one of the last five meetings have gone over the total. None of the Pirates last four have gone over, and only two of the Giants last eight on the road have.  

3. X-factor - Hunter Pence's 180 hits in the regular season made him the Giants top guy in that category. Volquez has dominated the 31 year old in previous encounters though, limiting Pence to a .194 AVG with 16 strike outs over 36 at bats. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Texas Rangers are playing well of late, winners of nine of their last 10 overall. They host Houston in Game 2 of this home series tonight, after taking the opener by a score of 4-3. Both teams are turning to the back end of the rotation here in this hitter's park, and that could translate into a high scoring affair.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Texas will send Nick Martinez to the mound, and he's still in search of his first home win of the season. His numbers are not very encouraging, going 0-6, 6.29 ERA in 10 appearances at home and 0-10, 6.02 ERA in 18 appearances under the lights. The Astros will counter with Brett Oberholtzer, who also struggles under the lights, posting a record of 5-9 with a 5.29 ERA.

2. Jose Altuve - The Astros infielder is crushing opposing pitchers this season, batting .345 (best in MLB). He's 4-for-7 lifetime versus Martinez.

3. X-Factor - Texas has seen the total go over in six of it's last eight games overall, and the bats should stay hot at home tonight against a struggling pitcher.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 10-5 in September so far, and they'll look to complete the sweep at home versus Boston tonight. The Red Sox have been out-scored 13-1 while losing the first two games of this series, and with a struggling pitcher on the mound, that trend is likely to continue tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Red Sox hand the ball to Brandon Workman, who is 0-9 over his last 10 starts. He was torched for six runs on six hits in just three innings in a loss to the Orioles in his most recent appearance. He's been slightly better on the road than he has been at Fenway, but still he's 1-3 with a 4.54 ERA in eight appearances away from Boston. The Pirates will counter with Gerit Cole, who has won his last two starts, despite allowing seven runs on 14 hits in those games.  

2. Pirates Hot Bats - Neil Walker is 10 for 22 with two homers, three doubles and six RBIs in his last six games, and Josh Harrison is 9-for-23 with a pair of doubles and three RBIs during the first five games of this home stand. 

3. X-Factor - The Pirates have seen the total go over in four of their last five home games, and tonight's total looks far too low considering the starting pitchers. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*) 

After dropping 2-of-3 at home to the Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants are now three games out of first in the NL West. They take on the cellar dwelling D'Backs in Arizona tonight, and this looks like a favorable match-up for the visitors. I have my eye on the total though, as we'll see two inconsistent pitchers on the hill.

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The D-backs will hand the ball to Wade Miley (7-11, 4.28 ERA) who's really struggled at Chase Field this season. The southpaw is 2-7, with an alarming ERA of 6.08 over 14 starts at home. He was 0-3 over five starts in August, and have surrendered four runs on 12 hits over nine innings so far this month. The Giants will counter with Ryan Vogelsong (8-10, 3.90 ERA) who was torched by the Rockies his last road start, as he surrendered eight runs on 10 hits, lasting only five innings. That was not a one time thing as he's been poor on the road for a better part of the season, posting a 5.11 ERA over 14 starts. 

2. Over trends - All of the D-backs last four games have gone over the total, and so have seven of the Giants last nine on the road as well. 

3. X-factor - Buster Posey has owned Miley, going 9-for-22 with one homer lifetime. Ryan Vogelsong has been hit hard by a lot of players in the D-backs line-up, but most notably Aaron Hill who's 13-for-28 with two homers versus the veteran.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go over the total (10*)

The Bronx Bombers will host the Tampa Rays at Yankee Stadium Thursday night, and both teams will be sending hot pitchers to the mound. Alex Cobb will get the nod for the visitors, while Michael Pineda takes the mound for the Yankees. The total may look low at first glance, but I think the under is a solid play tonight.  

Here are my keys to the game:

 
1. Pitching - The Rays will hand the ball to Alex Cobb (9-7, 2.83 ERA) who's been pitching well all season long, and not conceded more than two runs in any of his last 11 starts. The 26 year old has hurled seven scoreless innings versus the Yankees already this season, and is posting a 1.24 ERA over his six last match-ups with them. The Bronx Bombers will counter with Michael Pineda (3-4, 1.80 ERA) who's not far off Cobb's streak of games where he's conceded two runs or less, currently sitting at nine. The 25 year old right-hander has been dominant at Yankee Stadium all season long, allowing only four runs on 15 hits over 25 innings of work. He's enjoyed his baseball under the lights as well, posting a 1.66 ERA over seven starts, so he must be looking forward to tonight's home game. 

2. Trends - Only one of Pindea's last seven, and none of Cobb's last nine starts have gone over the total.

3. X-factor - Alex Cobb has the NYY line-up hitting .176 over 125 at bats, with Derek Jeter going 2-for-12 with two strike-outs lifetime.  

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

The St. Louis Cardinals have taken over the top spot in the NL Central, sitting three games up on the Milwaukee Brewers. The division rivals will meet tonight at Miller Park, for Game 1 of a four game series that could decide the division. The Cardinals come in riding a five game win streak, while the Brewers have lost eight in a row. I'm expecting a high scoring affair with a couple of struggling pitchers on the mound. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Brew Crew will hand the ball to Wily Peralta (15-9, 3.82 ERA) who's been hit hard over his last two starts, surrendering 14 runs on 16 hits over eight innings. The 25 year old had a decent start to the season, but has dropped off more and more and was posting a 4.81 ERA in his six outings in August. The Cardinals will counter with Michael Wacha (5-5, 2.79 ERA) who'll make his first start since the middle of June. The 23 year old right-hander was not exactly on the top of his game prior to his injury, showing a 4.24 ERA over his three June starts. He's win-less on the road this season, going 0-5 with a 3.40 ERA over seven starts.

2. Trends - Eleven of the last 14 meetings in Milwaukee have gone over the total, as have four of the Cardinals last five overall. 

3. X-factor - Matt Holliday is 6-for-16 with two homers versus Peralta lifetime. 

Selection: This is a play on St.Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers to go over the total (10*)

The Padres have been rather hot lately winning both games of this series so far and six of their last seven overall. Four of those six wins came in games decided by one run, and offense continues to be an issue for San Diego. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The D-backs will hand the ball to Josh Collmenter (9-7, 3.94 ERA) who's coming off consecutive quality starts, allowing a pair of runs on six hits over 14 2/3 innings total. This will be his third time facing the Padres this season, only giving up two runs on nine hits over 13 2/3 innings in the previous outings. The Padres will counter with Andrew Cashner (2-6, 2.37 ERA) who's win-less in his last 10 starts. The 27 year old should not take much blame though, as he's consistently been posting ERA of around 2.50 since May, but without getting enough help from the offense to bag a victory. 

2. Padres woeful offense - The Padres are ranked last in all offensive categories in the major leagues. They've scored 11 runs over their last five games.  

3. X-factor - Josh Collmenter has owned the Padres, limiting them to a .209 ERA over 86 at bats. 

Selection: This is a play on Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres to go UNDER the total (10*).

The Minnesota Twins are just 2-8 over their last 10 games, and they host the Chicago White Sox in Game 2 of this series tonight, after losing the opener by a score of 6-3 last night. The last four meetings have seen a total of 60 runs, and I think we'll see plenty of action over the plate in this fixture as well.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The White Sox will hand the ball to John Danks (9-9, 4.88 ERA) who's been giving up a fair amount of runs on the road all season long, posting a 5.40 ERA over 14 starts. He was ice-cold in August, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in five outings. The Twins have hit him hard this season, scoring 10 runs on 16 hits over 12 innings versus the southpaw. The Twins will counter with Trevor May (0-4, 10.42 ERA) who's still looking for his first win in the major leagues. The rookie has not had any success at all in his five starts so far, and gave up eight runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings in a 9-1 loss at Baltimore his last time out.  

2. Trends - The over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last four games overall, and 5-0 in the Twins last five games at Target Field.  

3. X-factor - Jose Abreu is set to make a comeback for the White Sox. He's 12-for-21 in his last six games, and is batting .339 versus Minnesota lifetime.  

Selection: This is a play on Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins to go over the total (10*).

After the Tribe won in a slugfest in Game 1 of this series versus Chicago, the White Sox responded with a 3-2 win in a pitcher's duel last night. I'm expecting to see the bats come alive again in the series finale. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1: Pitching - Carlos Carrasco will get the call for Cleveland, and he was lit up the last time he faced Chicago. Carrasco (5-4, 3.14 ERA) gave up five runs on six hits over 6 1/3 innings in a loss earlier this year. The White Sox will counter with John Danks, who comes in win-less in his last four starts. Danks (4-8, 4.98 ERA) have given up 12 runs on 24 hits over 18 innings versus Cleveland this year, going 1-1. 

2: Jose Abreu - The Chicago slugger is 10-for-19 with six RBIs in his last five games. 

3. X-Factor - The White Sox have seen the total go over in seven of their last eight versus the AL Central.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Yankees and the Royals will play a make up game at Kauffman Stadium tonight. Two of the previous three in the season series went under the total, and runs wont be easy to come by tonight as two hot pitchers take the mound.  

Here are my keys to the game: 

 1. Pitching - The Yankees will hand the ball to Michael Pineda (2-2, 2.05 ERA) who'll make his seventh start of the season. The 25 year old has not allowed more than two runs in any of his previous games. The Royals will counter with James Shields (12-6, 3.28 ERA) who's been dominant all season long. He's undefeated so far in August, going 3-0 with a 2.17 ERA over four starts. The 32 year old has hurled six innings versus the Yankees this season, allowing only one unearned run on six hits.  

2. Trends - None of Pineda's six starts this season have gone over the total, and the under is 3-0-1 in Yankees last four games on the road.  

3. X-factor - The Royals line-up is a combined 7-for-36 versus Pineda, with Billy Butler going 0-for-6. 

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

The Indians will look to complete the sweep of a three game series versus the Twins at Target Field this afternoon. The series finale has all the signs of a pitcher's duel. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Twins will hand the ball to Phil Hughes (13-8, 3.76 ERA) who's coming of four quality starts in a row, going 3-1 and allowing six hits on 25 hits over 26 2/3 innings. He has done well versus the Indians line-up in the past, limiting them to a .222 AVG. The Tribe will counter with Corey Kluber (13-6, 2.41 ERA) who's undefeated in his last eight games. He has not allowed more than one run in any of his last five games, tossing a total of 39 innings. He's 6-4 with a 2.37 ERA in 13 games on the road for the season. 

2. Trends - Eight of the Indians last nine games have gone under the total, and all of Kluber's last six road starts. All of Hughes' last six starts have also gone under the total. 

3. X-factor - The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Minnesota. 

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

The Cardinals can complete the sweep of this three game set versus the Reds tonight. The visitors have four consecutive losses, but if any man can put an end to that it's Johnny Cueto. He'll be up against another strong pitcher though, and runs wont be easy to come by in this series finale. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Reds will hand the ball to Johnny Cueto (15-6, 2.06 ERA) who's the owner of the third lowest ERA in baseball this season. The 28 year old has conceded a total of seven runs on 24 hits over 39 innings in his last two games. He's 6-3 with a 2.31 ERA in 13 starts on the road for the season. The Cardinals will counter with Lance Lynn (13-8, 2.91 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts. He's coming off a solid outing where he conceded only one run on six hits over six innings in a 4-2 win versus the Padres. He's 8-3 with a 2.53 ERA in 14 starts home at Busch Stadium this season. 

2. Trends - The under is 4-1 in Cueto's last five starts on the road, all of Lynn's last seven coming in as a favorite has seen less run than the set line. 

3. X-factor - Only the Padres have scored fewer runs this season than the St. Louis Cardinals. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

This four game set between the Reds and the Rockies is tied at 1-1 as the Reds equalized with a 3-2 win last night. Coors Field is known as a hitters park, and as a result we often get a high line on the total. We can take advantage of that this afternoon as we'll see two competent pitchers on the hill. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Reds hand the ball to Mat Latos (4-3, 2.95 ERA) who's shown good stuff all season long. He's coming off four quality starts in a row, and conceded only one run on five hits over seven innings versus the Red Sox his last time out. His road ERA is tiny 1.85 over five starts. The Rockies will counter with Jordan Lyles (6-1, 3.70 ERA) who's been very consistent this season. The 23 year old right-hander is coming off a loss at San Diego, but he allowed only two runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings. He's 4-1 with a 3.86 ERA over six starts at home for the season.

2. Rockies struggling offense - Colorado has only mustered 16 runs in its last five games, Thursday's 7-3 win in the series opener included. 

3. Injuries - The Rockies have Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez on the DL. The Reds are hit hard as well as Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto remain on the DL. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

The Padres and the Cardinals are all set to play Game 3 of a four game set at Busch Stadium. St. Louis has won the first two games 4-2 and 4-3, and another low scoring ballgame is potentially in the cards tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Cardinals hand the ball to Shelby Miller (8-9, 4.17 ERA)  who's coming off a quality start in his last home game. The right-hander allowed only one run on four hits over seven innings, but the Cardinals still lost 2-1 to the Red Sox. He has done well versus the Padres line-up in the past, limiting them to a .205 AVG over 39 at bats. The Padres will counter with Jesse Hahn (7-3, 2.52 ERA), a 25 year old rookie who's showing some impressive numbers his first season in the major leagues. He's 4-1 on the road with a 2.12 ERA over five starts. 

2. Trends - All of the Cardinals last four games have gone under the total, as has the last four games between these two teams in St.Louis. 

3. X-factor - The Cardinals have taken a major step back offensively this season, in fact only the Padres have scored fewer runs this year than St. Louis. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go under the total (10*)

Last night's game between the Indians and the Diamondbacks was postponed due to heavy raining in Ohio. These two teams will make up for it by playing a double-header today, and I expect to see plenty of runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The D-backs will hand the ball to Vidal Nuno (2-8, 5.01), a 27 year old lefty who's been hit hard all season long. He surrendered five runs on seven hits over just four innings versus the Royals his last time out. He's win-less in his last seven starts. The Indians will counter with Josh Tomlin (5-8, 4.68 ERA) who's also struggled most of the season. He conceded six runs on eight hits over 4 1/3 innings in a loss at New York his last time out. 

2. Trends - The over is 4-1 in Cleveland's last five games, and all of Tomlin's last seven home starts have gone over the total.

3. X-factor - Jason Kipnis was 3-for-5 his last game.

Selection: This is a play on Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Indians to go OVER the total (10*). 

The Royals are on a six game winning streak and can complete the sweep of this three game set versus a struggling Giants team today. The Giants on the other hand have lost three straight, and show little signs of turning things around.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy (6-10, 2.39 ERA) who's undefeated in his last three starts, only allowing two runs on nine hits over 17 2/3 innings. He may only be 1-4 at home for the season, but has a 2.66 ERA in his 10 outings. The Giants will counter with Tim Lincecum who's win-less in his last six starts. 

2. Lincecum - The Royals haven't seen a lot of Lincecum, but through a combined 37 at bats, they have struck out 10 times with just seven hits. 

3. X-factor - The total is 8-2-1 in favor of the under in the Giants last 11 road games as an underdog. The under is 4-1 in the Royals last five home games. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

Last night's series opener of a three game set in Kansas City saw the home team defeat the Giants 4-2. Tonight's contest should be another low-scoring one as two competent pitchers take the hill. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Royals hand the ball to James Shields (10-6, 3.43 ERA) who's given Kansas City solid pitching all season long. He has only allowed five runs on 16 hits over 21 innings in his last three starts. He has a respectable 3.58 ERA home at Kauffman Stadium in nine outings. The Giants are going with Tim Hudson (8-8, 2.74 ERA) who's win-less in his last three starts, he can't be blamed as he has conceded only eight runs on 21 hits over 18 innings. He's 3-4 with a 2.24 ERA on the road this season. 

2. Trends - The total has gone under in four of the Royals last five games overall, and in six of the Giants last eight games as an underdog on the road. 

3. X-factor - Tim Hudson has only allowed more than two earned runs once in his eleven road starts this season. 

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Dodgers and the Angels will close out this four game home-and-home set tonight. The visitors edged last night's game 2-1, and I think this will be another low scoring affair. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Dodgers hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-5, 3.39 ERA) who's undefeated in his last four starts. He's been dominant on the road all season, going 8-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 starts. The lefty has a somewhat limited experience versus the Angels line-up, but he'a had the better of them so far with them hitting a measley .154 over 26 at bats. The Angels will counter with another southpaw, C.J. Wilson (8-7, 4.74 ERA) who has not really lived up to expectations lately. He has a good home record going 6-1 in 10 starts, although his 4.06 ERA could be better.  

2. No hitters park - All of the Angels last four games at Angel Stadium of Anaheim have gone under the predicted total, and the under is 4-0-1 in the last five head to head meetings in Anaheim. 

3. X-factor - No matter who's pitching for the Dodgers, Mike Trout seems to struggle. He's batting a lowly .245 over 13 games versus the Dodgers lifetime, and is 0-for-4 against Ryu.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)  

The Mariners won Game 1 of this two game set at home versus the Braves yesterday by a score of 4-2. That was the Braves seventh consecutive loss but they should be able to keep the score low and may even edge the win in a close game tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Mariners hand the ball to Chris Young (9-6, 3.19 ERA) who's been solid at home all season long. You may not lift an eyebrow over his 6-3 record at Safeco Field, but his 2.21 ERA with 50 strike outs over 11 starts is pretty impressive. The Braves will counter with Julio Teheran (10-7, 2.69 ERA), a 23 year old Colombian who's coming off a strong outing despite a 2-1 loss at the Dodgers. Teheran allowed only two runs on five hits with nine strike outs over eight innings. 

2. Trends - The under is 10-0-1 in Young's last 11 home starts, and 5-0 in Teheran's last five starts versus a team with a winning record.

3. X-factor - Freddie Freeman was 0-for-4 versus the Mariners yesterday, and is 1-for-6 versus Young lifetime. Ryan Doumit is 0-for-6 versus Young.

 
Selection: This is a play on the Atlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays finished July off with six consecutive wins, but have since lost three straight in August. The Orioles are 3-1 in their last four games, but they run into Toronto's ace tonight. The total looks a little high considering Buehrle's body of work this season. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Blue Jays hand the ball to veteran Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.11 ERA) who's coming off a 6-1 win at Boston, where he allowed one run on six hits over 6 2/3 innings. He's 5-3 with a 3.27 ERA at Rogers Centre this season. The Orioles will send Bud Norris (8-7, 3.69 ERA) to the hill, and his last outing on the road was not very impressive. The 29 year old right-hander surrendered four runs on six hits with three walks over five innings in a 3-4 loss at Seattle. He's 4-5 with a 4,66 ERA away from home for the season. 

2. Recent history - The teams are tied at 5-5 in the season series. The last four games have all seen seven runs or less. 

3. X-factor - Bud Norris last seven starts have all failed to reach the listed total. 

Selection: This is a play on the Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Athletics will open a three games set versus the Rays at O.co Coliseum in Oakland tonight. These two teams have played a three game set at Tampa Bay already this season, with every game going under. I expect today's pitchers to be able to keep the bats quiet as well. 
Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rays hand the ball to Alex Cobb who's 5-0 in his last six starts. Cobb (7-6, 3.54 ERA) has allowed only one run on eight hits, fanning 22 in his last two outings. The right-hander has already tossed 6 2/3 scoreless innings versus the A's this season. Oakland will counter with Jeff Samardzija (2-1, 3.19 ERA) who has settled in well for the Athletics after joining them from the Cubs. He surrendered only one run on five hits over eight innings in his last home start, a 5-1 win versus the Orioles. 

2. Recent history - This will be the fourth encounter between the teams this season. Those contests finished 5-2, 3-0 and 3-2, for a total of 15 runs in three games. 

3. X-factor - The Rays line-up is batting .167 over 24 at bats versus Samardzija. 

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Bay Rays @ the Oakland Athletic to go UNDER the total (10*)

We saw the Giants blowout the Mets at Citi Field on Sunday, but I expect to see a much closer contest here on Monday afternoon. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Tim Hudson will be on the hill for the Giants and he's been good on the road all season long. Hudson (8-8, 2.71 ERA) has a 2.13 ERA on the road for the season, and went 1-1 with a 0.93 ERA in his three away starts in July. The Mets will counter with Dillon Gee (4-4, 3.77 ERA) who has struggled in his last three starts. He's been really good in day games though, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts. 
2. Hudson on the road - We've seen a trend of low scoring games when Tim Hudson starts on the road, as the total has gone under in five of his last six such outings. 

3. X-factor - Hunter Pence was 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs in yesterday's game, but he's only 2-for-16 versus Gee lifetime. 

Selection: This is a play on the San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets to go UNDER the total (10*)

Toronto defeated the Astros by a score of 6-5, thanks to a ninth inning game winning home run from Nolan Reimold in the series opener yesterday. Houston will to execute revenge tonight, and considering their choice of pitcher the offense will probably have to pull a heavy weight if they're to pull that off.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Collin McHugh who's been hit hard repeatedly for nearly two months now. McHugh (4-9, 3.45 ERA) has six consecutive losses, allowing a total of 21 runs on 28 hits over 34 1/3 innings. His last time out was no exception when he conceded four runs on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings versus Miami. The Blue Jays will counter with J.A. Happ (8-5, 4.58 ERA) who was hit hard his last time out as well. The Yankees managed to score three runs on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Bronx versus the southpaw. He's 4-2 with a 6.10 ERA on the road in 10 outings this season. 

2. Recent history - This will be the fifth game between the teams this season, with the first four seeing a total of 38 runs over the plate.  

3. X-factor -  Jose Altuve was on a 12 game hitting streak up until yesterdays game. He must be eager to get back to the plate as he looks to maintain his lead in the AL batting race.

 Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros to go OVER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays are coming off a 3-0 sweep at Boston, and are 10-3 since the All Star break. The offense has been terrific lately, scoring 35 runs in the last five games. The Astros took 2-of-3 from Oakland, with every game seeing more than nine runs. Two hot teams should be involved in another high scoring contest tonight, when they open a four game set at Minute Maid Park.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Astros hand the ball to Jarred Cosart who has been hit hard lately. Cosart (9-7, 4.41 ERA) has surrendered 21 runs on 36 hits and 14 walks over 21 1/3 innings in his last four outings. He's 4-4 at home with a 4.67 ERA, and 4-6 with a 4.85 ERA under the lights this season. The Blue Jays will counter with Drew Hutchison (7-9, 4.44 ERA) who has been roughed up his last two away games, allowing a total of eight runs on 11 hits with eight walks over 13 innings.  

2. Recent history - This is the fourth game between the Blue Jays and the Astros this season. They combined for 27 runs in the first three.

3. X-factor - The Blue Jays Dioner Navarro was 3-for-4 in yesterdays win at Boston. He will face Cosart for the first time tonight, but is batting .323 in Houston lifetime.  

Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays @ Houston Astros to go OVER the total (10*)

The Padres bats came alive on Wednesday, blowing out the Cardinals by a score of 12-1. Offensive blow-outs have otherwise been scarce for San Diego this season, as they rank last in the majors in most offensive categories. The Cardinals aren't exactly lighting it up offensively either, and we should see a low scoring affair today in San Diego. 

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to Odrisamer Despaigne who despite a poor performance his last time out has shined during his rookie season. Despaigne (2-2, 1.66 ERA) is 1-0 in three starts at Petco Park with a 1.33 ERA over 20 1/3 innings. The Cardinals will counter with Shelby Miller (7-8, 4.20 ERA), a 23 year old who conceded two runs on three hits over 5 2/3 innings his last outing, a 6-3 win at the Cubs. 

2. The worst offense in the major leagues - Yes, San Diego Padres is the worst ranked team in runs, and the Cardinals are just marginally better ranking second to last.  

3. X-factor -  Brian Gorman will be calling balls and strikes today, and he's been generous to pitchers lately, with his last four games failing to go over the total. 

Selection: This is a play on the St. Louis Cardinals @ San Diego Padres to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays were rather pedestrian offensively last night, beating the Red Sox 4-2. That was the first game between these two teams this season that saw less than eight runs scored, and I think that order will be restored tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Red Sox hand the ball to Brandon Workman who has been hit hard lately, losing three consecutive games. Workman (1-3, 4.13 ERA) surrendered five runs on eight hits over seven innings in a 8-3 loss versus the White Sox in his most recent outing. The Blue Jays will counter with Mark Buehrle, who is a shadow of his former self. Buehrle (10-7, 3.19 ERA) is 0-6 with a 4.83 ERA in his last nine outings.

2. The offense - The Blue Jays have scored five runs or more in seven of their last nine games. The Red Sox offense is not quite as strong, but has a good record versus Buerhle who has a 5.84 ERA versus the home team this season. 

3. X-factor - David Ortiz is batting .316 over 79 at bats lifetime versus Buerhle, and Dustin Pedroia is 15-for-40.

Selection: This is a play on the Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox to go over the total (10*).

The Yankees won Game 1 of this three game set 6-4 yesterday and they have now won 7-of-8 at home since the All Star break. The Blue Jays are 4-2 in their last six games, with each game seeing eight runs or more. Today's contest should be another high scoring affair. 
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Blue Jays send Drew Hutchison to the hill, and he's been hit hard all season long, with his last outing being no exception. Hutchison (6-9, 4.54 ERA) surrendered six runs on nine hits over just 2 2/3 innings. In the game prior to that he allowed six runs on six hits with five walks over 5 1/3 innings. Derek Jeter is 5-for-11 versus Hutchison lifetime, and the Bronx Bombers line-up is batting .317 over 60 at bats. The Yankees counter with Chris Capuano (1-1, 4.55 ERA), who much like Hutchison has struggled lately. The 35 year old conceded five runs on six hits over 2 1/3 innings in a 3-12 loss at Seattle his last time out. The Blue Jays line-up is batting a combined .256 versus the southpaw.
2. Previous meetings - This will be the fifth game between these two teams at Yankee Stadium this season. Three of the previous encounters have seen eight runs or more. 
3. Joey Bats -Toronto's Jose Bautista is batting .359 vs southpaws. Chris Capuano could be in for a rough ride as Bautista comes in hot, going 8-for-15 with three home runs and six RBIs in his last four games.

Selection: This is a free play on the Blue [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Cubs are coming off back-to-back blowout losses at the hands of the Padres, surrendering a total of 21 runs to the league's worst offense. They host the Cardinals at Wrigley on Friday afternoon, and with a pair of struggling starters on the mound, we are likely to see another high scoring affair.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Travis Wood will be on the hill for the lovable losers, and he's a loser in each of his last three starts. Wood (7-9, 5.12 ERA) was blasted for seven runs on nine hits in just 5 1/3 innings in aloss to the Diamondbacks in his most recent start. Prior to that he allowed seven runs on seven hits over six innings in a home loss to the Braves. He's 2-0 versus the Cardinals this year, but allowed eight runs on 11 hits in those two games. The Cardinals counter with Joe Kelly, who owns a 5.11 ERA in three starts on the road this year.

2. Travis "Handy With The Wood" - With Travis Wood getting the start for the Cubs, Kelly has to think twice about pitching around the #9 hitter to get to the pitcher. Wood is one of a handful of pitchers in the majors capable of hitting one out of the park.

3: X-Factor - Nate Schierholtz has not been fooled by Kelly, going 6-for-13 lifetime against the 26 year old.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Orioles will look to continue their success on the road when they open a new series in Seattle Thursday Night. The Mariners have a pretty poor home record, and after losing back-to-back games to the Mets, they are now 25-28 at Safeco. I've had plenty of success backing Baltimore on this road trip, but I think the best bet is on the under in tonight's game.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Wei-Yin Chen will be on the mound for the Orioles, and he's having himself a career year. Chen (10-3, 4.21 ERA) allowed three runs on five hits over five innings, winning his last start on the road in Oakland. He's won three in a row, and he boasts a record of 5-1 in eight starts on the road this year. The Mariners counter with Hisashi Iwakuma, who is coming off a loss in his most recent start.

2. Nelson Cruz - The Orioles slugger is second in the majors with 28 home runs, but he hasn't gone deep since July 7th.

3. X-Factor - The Mariners have seen a big under trend at home against left-handers, failing to reach the total at a rate of 9-1-2 in their last 12.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Orioles have played well on the road all season long, with a record of 28-21 away from Camden Yards, yet they continue to be a big underdog here in this series versus the Angels. With both teams turning to the top end of the rotation here tonight, we should expect a pitcher's duel in Anaheim.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jered Weaver will toe the slab for the Angels, and he's unbeaten in his last six starts. Weaver (10-6, 3.43 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on six hits over six innings in a 3-2 home win over the Mariners in his most recent outing. It was his third straight start that saw the total finish below the number. The Orioles counter with Chris Tillman, who has pitched well in back-to-back losses. Tillman is still undefeated, with a record of 6-0 in 12 starts on the road this season.

2. Nelson Cruz - He's hitting .227 versus Weaver, but he's struck out 20 times with just 15 hits in 60+ at bats.

3. X-Factor - The Orioles won 10-of-13 heading into the All Star break, and one of those three losses came by a one-run margin.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

We didn't see a lot of offense in the Bronx last night, with neither team able to score a run until the 13th inning. There is every reason to expect another pitcher's duel at Yankee Stadium here on Wednesday, as the Rangers send ace Yu Darvish to the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Darvish (9-5, 2.88 ERA) had struggled losing back-to-back starts before a dominant performance in Toronto in his last appearance. He allowed just a single run on five hits, striking out a dozen Blue Jays over 6 2/3 innings. He's picked up most of his wins this year on the road, where he is 5-2 with a 3.32 ERA over nine starts. The Yankees counter with David Phelps, who has come out of the bullpen to fill a hole in the rotation left by injuries. He's been great at home, going 3-1 with a 2.62 ERA through five starts.

2. Yankees Offense - The Bronx Bombers didn't earn that moniker by ranking 21st in the majors in runs scored, but that is exactly the plight of this current New York lineup.

3. X-Factor - We've seen the total go under at a rate of 5-0-1 in the last six head to head meetings between these two teams.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Rockies were dreadful heading into the break, winning just five times in their final 26 games. They might have a chance to turn things around in Pittsburgh, with what appears to be a favorable match-up in starting pitchers. My money is on the visitors to keep this one close, which should result in enough runs to push the total over the number.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jorge De La Rosa was the starter in three of Colorado's last five wins, and the left-hander has won four straight. De La Rosa is far better at home though than he is on the road. The Pirates counter with Francisco Liriano, who has just a single victory in 15 starts this season. He was lit up by the Reds, allowing three runs on three hits and six walks over just four frames in a 6-3 loss at Cincinnati in his first game back from the DL.

2. Rockies Bats - Colorado boasts the top offense in baseball, leading the majors with a team batting average of .281.

3. X-Factor - Liriano is 0-3 with a 5.98 ERA in eight starts at PNC Park this season.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Tigers and the Royals will meet in the final game of a four game set in Kansas City Sunday, and Detroit has a chance to complete the sweep. Given the match-up on the mound in this matinee game, we could see a slugfest at Kauffman Stadium this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Justin Verlander will get the call for the visitors, and he was booed at home by Tigers fans in his last start. Verlander (8-7, 4.84 ERA) allowed five runs in the first inning, not factoring in the decision of a 14-5 win over the Dodgers. He's had a rough stretch in recent starts, and Kansas City has had his number this year. He's 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA in three previous starts versus the Royals. Bruce Chen will start opposite Verlander, and he's struggled in day games, with a record of 1-1 5.86 ERA.

2. Tigers Own Chen - Miguel Cabrera is hitting .410 with five home runs and 11 RBIs in 39 career at bats versus Chen. Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Austin Jackson and Ian Kinsler have also hit him hard.

3. X-Factor - Billy Butler hasn't been fooled by Verlander, hitting .434 with a pair of home runs and 14 RBIs in 76 at bats lifetime.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Marlins wrap up the first half of the season in New York, and Game 1 of this three game set at Citi Field goes Friday. The Fish have split the first six games of this road trip, and they will like their chances tonight with a red hot pitcher on the mound. I expect to see a pitcher's duel in tonight's series opener, and runs should be few and far between.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Henderson Alvarez will be on the hill for the visitors, and he's undefeated in his last 10 starts. Alvarez (6-3, 2.27 ERA) allowed one run on five hits over seven frames in a win over the Cardinals at Busch Stadium in his latest start. He's 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA during this 10 game unbeaten streak. The Mets counter with 24 year old right-hander Zach Wheeler, who has delivered consecutive quality starts. He's owned the Fish this year, going 1-0 with a 0.49 ERA in three starts.

2. Situational/Motivational - With just a couple of games before the All Star break, we are already seeing managers take the opportunity to rest star players. A couple of teams that are not post-season contenders, should just be going through the motions here.

3. X-Factor - Giancarlo Stanton is just 1-for-10 with three strikeouts lifetime versus Wheeler.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Pirates have lost three straight in St. Louis, and they will wrap up this series at Busch Stadium on Thursday night. With both teams turning to the back end of their rotation, we don't expect a pitcher's duel here tonight. I expect to see enough offense to push the number over the total.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Shelby Miller will be on the hill for the Cardinals, and he's lost four straight starts. Miller (7-7, 4.15 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits over just 5 1/3 innings in a 6-5 home loss to Miami his last time out. He's surrendered 16 runs over 19 innings during this four game skid. The Pirates counter with Edinson Volquez, and he's been far better at home than he has been on the road. Volquez is 2-4 with a 4.21 ERA in six starts on the road this year.

2. Cardinals Own Volquez - Allen Craig is hitting .417 with 4 RBIs, while Jhonny Peralta is hitting .429 with a pair of home runs in past meetings with Volquez. Matt Holliday is batting .370 with a pair of homers and five RBIs in 27 career at bats off the right-hander.

3. X-Factor - While the big bats in the St. Louis lineup have owned Volquez, he will also have to be wary of Kolton Wong, who has homered three times in the last four days.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Tigers beat up on Eric Bedard Thursday, taking Game 1 of this series by a score of 8-1. Victor Martinez, Torii Hunter and Ian Kinsler all went deep for the Tigers, while Max Sherzer silenced the Rays. Tampa might have a better chance of scoring a few runs here in Game 2, and I'm expecting this one to be a high scoring affair.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Alex Cobb will be on the hill for the visitors, and it's been a tough season for the 26 year old. Cobb (3-6, 4.20 ERA) surrendered four runs on eight hits over five frames in a win over Baltimore in his most recent start. His numbers are not good under the lights, with a record of 1-4, 6.59 ERA in five starts at night. The Tigers counter with Drew Smyly, who exited after just two innings in his latest start, and has been bothered by a respiratory infection.

2. Tigers Power - Detroit ranks second in the majors batting .276, and they are also second in slugging percentage (.440).

3. X-Factor - Alex Avila is 4-for-7 lifetime, while Torri Hunter is 6-for-13 versus Cobb.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The San Francisco Giants have lost six of eight on this current home stand, and they now find themselves in a heated battle with the Dodgers who trail by just a half game in the NL West. After splitting the first two games of this series versus St. Louis, the Giants appear to have the advantage heading into the rubber match.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Madison Bumgarner will get the call for the home team, and he's looking for his 10th win of the season. Bumgarner (9-5, 2.90 ERA) surrendered five runs on nine hits over six innings in a home loss to the Reds in his most recent start. He doesn't have good numbers at home this season, going 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA in eight starts. The Cardinals hand the ball to 22 year old Carlos Martinez, who comes out of the bullpen to make just his fourth start so far.

2. Home Cookin' - Martinez has been better at home, going  0-2 with a 4.63 ERA in 17 appearances on the road.

3. X-Factor - Pablo Sandoval has hit 10 home runs and has 36 RBIs this season, seven of those homers and 22 of his RBIs have come at AT&T Park.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

David Price is rumored to be on the way out of Tampa Bay, so each time he takes the mound it could be his final start in a Rays uniform. He's scheduled to start Tuesday as the Rays take on the Yankees in Game 2 of this series in the Bronx. I don't expect to see a lot of scoring in this game, with a pair of top knotch pitchers facing off.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Price hasn't let the trade rumors affect his performance on the mound, he's coming off four consecutive starts going at least eight innings and striking out 10 or more. The Yankees counter with Hiroki Kuyroda, who has been very good of late. Kuroda (5-5, 4.23 ERA) has given the Yankees quality starts in four of his last five outings.

2. Bronx Bombers? - The nickname has been a suitable one over the years, but it doesn't accurately describe the Yankees this season. New York ranks in the bottom half in all major offensive categories.

3. X-Factor - Carlos Beltran has been bothered by a sore forearm, and he's hitting just .219 on the season. He's batting .167 lifetime versus Price.

Selection: This is a play on the [email protected] to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Baltimore Orioles will host Texas in the opening game of a four game set at Camden Yards Monday. Texas is struggling, with just a pair of wins over it's last 11 games.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Joe Saunders will get the call for Texas, and he's been roughed up pretty bad lately. Saunders (0-4, 5.19 ERA) surrendered six runs on seven hits and five walks in just four innings, losing to the Tigers his last time out. The Orioles counter with Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed two runs on less in four of his last six start. Jimenez is still winless at home this season, but the Orioles won at home over the White Sox by a score of 5-4 in his last start, a no decision.

2. The Long Ball - The Orioles lead the major leagues with 42 home runs, 25 of those coming off the bat of Nelson Cruz. He's hit a pair of homers in his previous encounters with Saunders.

3. X-Factor - Adrian Beltre is hitting .400 in 20 career at bats versus Jimenez, and he's batting .385 with 15 RBIs over his last 20 games.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

We've seen a couple of high scoring tilts here in Miami in the first tow games of this series between the A's and the Fish, and there's every reason to expect another slugfest here at Marlins Park Sunday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Tommy Milone will go for the visitors, and he was lit up by the Red Sox in his last start. Milone (5-3, 3.89 ERA) allowed five runs on eight hits through just five frames in a 7-6 loss to Boston. He's surrendered five home runs in his last four starts. Miami will counter with rookie Andy Heaney, making just his third big league start. The rookie was tagged for five runs on four hits and two walks through five innings in a loss to the Phillies his last time out.

2. Home Cookin' - Giancarlo Stanton is an absolute beat with the bat, leading the NL in home runs as well as RBIs. The majority of his success comes at home, where he's picked up 42 of his 60 RBIs.

3. Park Factor - We've seen seven of the last 11 games at Marlins Park go over the total.

Selection: This is a play on [email protected] to go OVER the total (10*)

The Brewers bats exploded for nine runs last night, chasing Stephen Strasburh from the game after just four innings. Milwaukee will welcome the Colorado Rockies to town Thursday, and with two of baseball's best offenses, we can expect to see some fireworks.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Rockies will send rookie Christian Friedrich into the fire here at Miller Park, and the 26 year old got hit hard in his season debut. Friedrich, allowed nine runs on seven hits and three walks in six innings of work in a 9-4 loss to St. Louis. The Brewers will counter with Wily Peralta, who has surrendered at least three runs in four of his last five starts.

2. Offense - The Brewers rank 5th overall in runs scored, while the Rockies lead MLB in the categories of batting average, on base percentage as well as slugging percentage.

3. X-Factor - Peralta is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in three starts versus the Rockies since 2011.

Selection: This is a play on the Rockies/Brewers to go OVER the total (10*)

The Blue Jays won 2-of-3 at home versus the Yankees, and both victories were high scoring tilts. Hiroki Kuroda managed to quiet Toronto's bats last night, but we should expect to see more offense tonight, with the Jays hosting the White Sox in the first game of a four game series.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The White Sox will send relief pitcher Scott Carroll to the mound, making his sixth start of the season. He hasn't impressed, winless on the road with an ERA of 4.70 in five appearances. The Jays counter with J.A. Happ, who looks as though he's fallen apart. Happ allowed eight runs on seven hits and four walks over just four innings in an 11-1 loss to Cincinnati his last time out.

2. Heavy Hitters - These are two of the heaviest hitting teams in the majors, both boasting a slugging percentage above .400.

3. X-Factor - Jose Bautista has been resting a sore hamstring, but manager John Gibbons said he could come off the bench in last night's game if necessary. Expect to see Bautista at some point tonight.

Selection: This is a play on Chicago/Toronto to go OVER the total (10*)

Clayton Kershaw followed up his no-hitter by defeating the Royals in a 2-0 pitcher's duel at Kauffman Stadium last night. We can likely expect another low scoring affair in the series finale Wednesday, with Dan Haren starting opposite Royal's ace James Shields.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Shields (8-3, 3.70 ERA) allowed five runs on nine hits over seven frames in a loss to Seattle in his last start. Prior to that he was undefeated, going 5-0 during an eight-game unbeaten streak. Dan Haren has been very solid for the Dodgers, and he has stellar numbers under the lights. The veteran is 5-1 with a 3.21 ERA in 10 starts at night this season.

2. Royals Slumping Offense - Kansas City has lost five of it's last six overall, scoring a total of just eight runs in those six losses.

3. X-Factor - Yasiel Puig has cooled off at the plate, going just 2-for-18 on this road trip so far.

Selection: This is a play on the Dodgers/Royals to go UNDER the total.

The Marlins came up short in yesterday's series opener with the Mets, failing to score in a 1-0 ballgame. They look to bounce back in Game 2 with Henderson Alvarez on the hill, and the right-hander is undefeated in his last six starts. One of those wins was a complete game shutout win over Tampa.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - While Alvarez has been hot for the Fish, Matsuzaka has yet to lose for the Mets. He's allowed a total of one run on four hits over eight innings in his last three outings. He allowed just one run on two hits over seven innings in a win over Miami the last time he faced them, which was his only meeting with the Fish last year.

2. Mets Can't Hit - New York's lineup doesn't strike fear into opposing pitchers, ranking 24th overall in the majors in runs scored, while only the Padres hit for a lower average.

3. X-Factor - Alvarez has seen the total go under in each of his last four home starts.

Selection: This is a play on NYM/Miami to go UNDER the total (10*)

It was another slugfest at Chase Field last night, with the Brewers winning by a score of 7-5. Arizona will look to avoid a sweep in the series finale tonight, and we are likely to see another high scoring tilt between these two teams in this hitter's park.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Matt Garza will start for the Brewers, and he's struggled away from Miller Park. Garza (4-4, 4.17 ERA) was roughed up at home in his most recent start, giving up five runs on seven hits in loss to Cincinnati. He is just 1-2 with a 6.21 ERA on the road this season. Wade Miley will go for Arizona, and he's had a poor season personally, while the D'Backs staff ranks last in the majors.

2: Park Factor - Known to be a hitter's park, we've seen plenty of runs scored at Chase Field lately. These two teams have tallied 24 runs total in the first two games of this series.

3: X-Factor - The Brewers have been a good bet to go over, with the total going above the number at a rate of 18-7-2 in their last 27 overall.

Selection: This is a play on the Brewers/D'Backs to go OVER the total (10*)

The Phillies were shutout in a 3-0 loss to the Cubs yesterday, and it's unlikely that they will fare much better on the road in Atlanta on Monday night. This team has already packed it in, going through the motions in another disastrous season. Already there are trade talks swirling the clubhouse, as the salary dump is inevitable.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Julio Teheran was roughed up in Colorado his last time out, but he should bounce back at home where he is 2-1 with a 1.24 ERA this season. He pitched a complete game shutout in his only previous meeting with Philly this year. The Phillies hand the ball to Cole Hamels, who is coming off his best start of the season so far. Let's not get too excited about a win over the Padres though.

2: Home Cookin' - The Phillies have lost five of their last six on the road, and the Braves have won seven of Teheran's last eight home starts.

3: Offense - The Braves rank 28th overall in the majors in runs scored, and Philly isn't much better ranking 24th.

Selection: This is a play on the Phillies/Braves to go UNDER the total (10*)

The Royals are red hot, winners of seven in a row. They scored 22 runs in a three game sweep of the White Sox in Chicago over the weekend, but they have to face Tigers ace Justin Verlander here on Monday. With the Royals swinging the bats well, we could see a few runs scored here in Detroit tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Verlander (6-6, 4.61 ERA) was lit up by the White Sox, giving up seven runs on eight hits in 5 2/3 innings, losing his last start. It was the same story in his prior outing, giving up six runs on eight hits in a home loss to Toronto. Meanwhile, Jason Vargas is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts versus the Tigers this year.

2: Tigers Bullpen - Detroit relievers own the worst ERA in the major leagues at 4.83.

3: X-Factor - Salvador Perez hit a home run yesterday against the White Sox, and he's owned Verlander, hitting .444 with 10 RBIs in 27 career at bats.

Selection: This is a play on the Royals/Tigers to go OVER the total (10*)

The Mariners struggles at home continued on Friday, as Felix Hernandez tossed a gem, allowing a lone run on four hits over 8 1/3 innings, only to lose 1-0. Seattle will hope for more run support for their other ace, as Hisashi Iwakuma takes the mound tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Iwakuma (4-3, 2.79 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits through 7 1/3 frames in a 3-2 loss to the Yankees in his most recent outing. He allowed a pair of runs on six hits over eight innings in a win over Texas earlier this season. The Rangers send Nick Martinez to the mound, and while he's struggled, he should get a boost from pitching to a poor offense in a pitcher's park.

2: Mariners Offense - Seattle is hitting just .235, the worst average in the American League. They have scored three runs or less in all five games on this current home stand.

3: X-Factor - Nick Martinez has been sharp in day games, with a record of 1-0, 2.79 ERA in four starts in the afternoon this season.

Selection: This is a play on the Rangers/Mariners UNDER (10*)

The Padres have lost four straight, and two of those losses were shutouts. San Diego will look to turn things around tonight with it's ace on the mound, but they'll need to get him some runs. I like the under here in New York with a pair of quality pitchers in park that doesn't produce a lot of runs.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Andrew Cashner (2-5, 2.13 ERA) tossed six scoreless frames, giving up just two hits in a win over the Nats in his most recent outing. He's seen the under trend at a rate of 7-2-1 over his last 10 starts. Veteran Bartolo Colon will go for the Mets, and he's 2-2, with a 2.20 ERA at home this season. His most recent home start saw him toss 7 1/3 scoreless innings.

2. Offense - The Padres rank last in the majors in each and every offensive category. New York isn't much better, as only San Diego has a lower batting average than these Mets.

3. X-Factor - The Padres have played a lot of low scoring games on the road, with the total going under in 19 of their last 27 away from Petco.

Selection: This is a play on the Padres/Mets to go UNDER (10*)

The Orioles were on the wrong side of an 11-1 blowout at Camden Yards Sunday, and they'll have their hands full once again as they host the Red Sox in Game 1 of a new series at home on Monday. Given the scheduled starters in a this hitter's park, we should see another slugfest.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Bud Norris will be the starter for the O's, and he's allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts. The Red Sox roughed him up pretty good already this year, as he surrendered four runs on five hits and two walks in a loss at Fenway. Jake Peavy has had his own struggles, and Boston has lost four of his last five starts, with the veteran allowing at least five runs in all four of those losses.

2: Park Factor - The over has trended at a rate of 6-2-2 in the Orioles last 10 home games. Camden Yards has a much lower score in 2014, after ranking 4th overall last year. Expect a major correction during the rest of the summer, with warmer air in Baltimore.

3: X-Factor - Big Papi won the game for the Red Sox with a three-run blast in Detroit last night. Ortiz is 3-for-9 with a home run against Norris.

Selection: This is a play on Boston/Baltimore Over (10*)

Washington was my free play yesterday and considering they won 7-0, I see no reason not to up the ante tonight.  Not only do I like the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg to win this game, but I expect it to go Over as well.  Last night's game stayed Under by one-half run, but the number is lower.  I don't think we'll need much help from the Phillies offense either. Philadelphia has the worst record in the National League since May 4th at 9-18 and has lost five of its last six after a bad weekend experience at home vs. the Mets.  Manager Ryne Sandberg hasn't impressed me much at all.  

Here are my keys to the game:  

1.  AJ Burnett - Things don't look too good for the Phillies starter in this matchup, considering a 6.30 ERA his last five starts.  He had six walks and gave up five runs in his last start and has allowed 24 runs in his last 30 innings of work.   Washington is averaging 6.5 runs/game its last four and that's even after being shutout on Sunday.

2.   Return of Zimmerman - Remember this key from yesterday's free play?  Zimmerman had missed almost two months with a thumb injury, but returned by going 2 for 4 with a run batted in.  He's likely to be in left field again tonight, but it's at the plate where his return makes the biggest difference.  In 10 games, Zimmerman was batting .364 and had two homers before the injury.

3. X-Factor -  Over Philadelphia's last nine games, only once has there been less than seven total runs scored.  

Selection:  The play is on Over Philadelphia-Washington (10*)

I'm taking the Over tonight as St. Louis looks to get something going offensively against in-state foe Kansas City.  The Cardinals were shutout for a second straight game Monday (Sunday by the Giants) as the Royals came in and took the opener 6-0 thanks in large part to a quality start from left-handed Danny Duffy.   Thankfully for the home team they are a lot more prolific when facing righties, so even thought its James Shields pitching tonight for the visitors, St. Louis should put some runs on the board.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.   Shields - Surprisingly, the Over is 7-1 his last eight starts.   Part of that is because he's been the only Royals pitcher to consistently get good run support, but also he did give up six runs in his last start, a season-high.  Over his last three starts, he's allowed a total of 13 runs, leading to a 5.85 ERA and 1.450 WHIP.

2.  Jaime Garcia - Similarly, the Over is 3-0 in starts made by the pitcher who will be on the mound tonight for St. Louis.  He's already allowed four home runs.  The Cardinals are also 17-11-1 Over at home this season.

3.   X-Factor -  Keep an eye on the Royals base-stealing prowess.  They are the American League leaders in that category with 48 after leading all of baseball last year with 153.   They have 20 stolen bases in the last 14 games alone.  The obvious reason to keep an eye on this is because stolen bases lead to more runners getting in scoring position.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Kansas City-St. Louis (10*)

I'm taking the Over in tonight's Pittsburgh at San Diego game.  Fun fact:  This is the only regularly scheduled National League game on the slate for Monday.   The Over worked for me last night in the Pirates' 5-3 win over the Dodgers as I was lucky the home team tacked on what was essentially a meaningless run in the bottom of the ninth inning.  Thus, I'll come back and play things the same way here.  The Padres have a major question mark going today in starter Tim Stauffer.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Stauffer - This will be his third start.  After the first one probably couldn't have gone any better, the last one definitely couldn't have been any worse as he allowed seven runs while failing to make it out of the first inning.   Tonight's performance should end up somewhere in the middle, but that should still be enough to allow the game to go Over.  Both previous starts, an 11-1 win and a 12-6 loss, easily went Over.

2.  Morton on the Road - The Pirates will go with Charlie Morton as their starter tonight.  He simply is not very good on the road.   He's winless this year when not pitching an PNC Park and has allowed 20 runs in his last 30 innings pitched away from home.  

3. X-Factor - Before running into Chris Sale yesterday, San Diego had scored 23 runs and had 52 hits its previous five games. For Pittsburgh, scoring five times in a game where the Dodgers started Clayton Kershaw is pretty impressive as well.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-San Diego (10*)

Admittedly, taking an Over when Zack Greinke is pitching seems a little bit odd.  After all, he's gone 23 straight starts without allowing more than three runs.  But prior to his last start, he hadn't allowed more than two in 22 straight starts, so there's always a first time for everything.  Also, even if he does give up only 2-3 runs here, you have to think Pirates starter Edinson Volquez will give up a lot more to a Dodgers offense that scored 12 runs in a big win yesterday.   

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  An Over Pitcher - Although Greinke's numbers are impressive, you might be surprised to learn that the Over is actually 7-4 in his 11 starts this season.   The Over has cashed in his last two starts.   He typically gets pretty good run support and remember that he's unlikely to go the distance (only once has he pitched 8 full innings), which means the bullpen could always give up additional runs.

2. Volquez -  Interestingly, the Under is actually 8-2 for him in 10 starts.  But this is also because the total is almost always higher than it is here.  There have been three times where he's allowed five runs or more.  He has a 5.40 ERA on the road.

3.  X-Factor -  Pittsburgh had 11 hits yesterday, so it's not as if they were quiet at the plate.  They simply failed to come through when they had runners in scoring position.  Consider that the Dodgers only had three more hits, but scored 10 more runs.  The scoring is likely to be more balanced tonight.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Pittsburgh-LA Dodgers (10*)

While I like the Under in Kansas City-Toronto, I like the Over for Baltimore-Houston tonight.  The Astros come back home on their longest win streak of the season as they taken five in a row, including a sweep of the Royals in Kansas City.   They have a number of hot hitters in their lineup, which should match up well this weekend against a struggling Orioles starting rotation that sends out Ubaldo Jimenez for the series opener.  For Houston, Brad Peacock isn't likely to be much better as his numbers are almost identical and he's won just once in eight starts.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Hot Houston Hitting -  Two players bear mentioning here, the first being George Springer, a rookie who has hit six home runs in his last six games and is batting .405 the last 10 games.  Jose Altuve is batting .400 over his last 20 games, reaching base safely in 19 of them.  The team has scored 34 times while collecting 61 hits during its five-game win streak.  Three times they have scored nine runs on their own.

2. Weak Starting Pitching - Baltimore's starting rotation has been bad all around the last 10 games with an 8.06 ERA. Only once during that time has a starter gone more than six innings.  It wasn't Jimenez, who lasted just four in his last start and gave up five runs in a 9-0 loss to Cleveland.  He has allowed at least four runs six times already this season.  For Houston, Peacock has a 4.58 ERA and 1.556 WHIP and has pitched worse at home than on the road.

3.  X-Factor -  Baltimore has a hot hitter of its own right now in Nelson Cruz, who leads MLB in home runs with 19 for the year and he's slugging a ridiculous 1.000 the last 14 games.

Selection:   The play is Over Baltimore-Houston (10*)

I like the Under in Thursday's opener between Kansas City and Toronto.  These have certainly been two clubs trending in opposite directions of late.  The Royals inability to find any kind of consistent hitting resulted in them getting swept at home by Houston.  Overall, the team has lost five of six.  Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won nine in a row to take control in the American League East.   We have two quality starting pitchers on the mound tonight - James Shields for Kansas City and RA Dickey for Toronto - and they should keep the scoring down.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Dickey vs. KC - The knuckleballer's overall numbers aren't that spectacular, but facing this weak-hitting Royals lineup should definitely be to his benefit.  The Royals have scored three runs or less in four straight and are last in MLB in home runs and slugging percentage.  Dickey has also gotten better as the season has progressed.  In his last start, his best of the year, he allowed just 2 runs and 5 hits in 8 1/3 innings of work.  He's now 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA his last six starts.

2.  Shields - Going back to his time in Tampa Bay, the Royals ace has been very good against Toronto throughout his career.  In his last eight starts against them, he's 6-1 with a 1.13 ERA.   No other pitcher with at least five starts since 2011 against the Blue Jays has a better earned run average.  Twice he's gone the distance here at Rogers Centre.  He's allowed two earned runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts this season.

3. X-Factor - These two starters faced off against one another last year and the result was a 3-2 final.  Five of the six games played between these two teams went Under in 2013.

Selection:  The play is Under Kansas City-Toronto (10*)

I like the Under on Sunday Night Baseball as we should get a pitchers duel between Adam Wainwright for St. Louis and Mike Leake for Cincinnati.  Both come in having pitched very well all season long, Wainwright in particular.  After the first two games of this series both found a way to sneak Over the total, this one shouldn't feature many runs.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Wainwright - He is coming off a career best outing where he allowed only one hit in a complete game effort.   His 1.85 ERA ranks right near the top of the National League and he's allowed two runs or less in all but two of his starts this year.  Over his last three starts, he has a 1.17 ERA and a 0.696 WHIP.  Of the 10 times he's pitched this season, the opponent has not scored a single run in five of those games!

2.  Leake -  Despite being winless over his last six starts, it's not like he's pitched poorly.  His ERA is 2.89 going back to April 15th and over his last four starts, it's 1.89.  He's allowed just one run in each of his last two starts and four of his last five have stayed Under the total.

3.  X-Factor -  The reason for Leake not having more victories is the fact Cincinnati never seems to score for him.  In each of his last five starts, they've failed to score more than four runs for the entire game.

Selection:  The play is Under St. Louis-Cincinnati (10*)

I like the Over tonight as the Mets and Dodgers open this three-game series.  While the home side has been struggling big time at the plate and is going against Josh Beckett, the total is just too low for a pair of teams that more often than not are capable of giving up a lot of runs.  Twice in the last four games, the Dodgers have allowed 13 or more runs.   The Mets are 5-2-1 Over the last eight games despite their lack of hitting.  

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Raul Montero  -  In his first start, Montero allowed two home runs, which cost him in a 4-0 loss to Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees.  There were reports that he was tipping his pitches, which isn't a good sign going forward, especially against a Top 10 offense like the Dodgers.

2.   Dodgers When Favored - When favored on the money line, the Dodgers are 21-12-1 Over this season.

3. X-Factor -   When you get past Beckett, you have a Dodgers' bullpen that has been very poor on the road this season.  They have a 5.47 ERA and 1.740 WHIP.   They've blown three saves in 11 chances and are allowing more than two runs per appearance.   Brian Wilson should be singled out for specific blame.

Selection:   The play is Over Los Angeles-New York (10*)

This is an Over play for Mets-Nationals this afternoon.  Yesterday's game was a 5-2 final in favor of Washington, so we'll need just one more run today to make this a winning bet.  Fortunately, I don't think Saturday's starting pitching matchup is as strong, plus at least the Mets were able to put runs on the board yesterday.  Prior to scoring two times in the top of the fifth, they had gone 22 consecutive innings without a runner crossing the plate.  Overall, it was their ninth straight loss to Washington.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Bartolo Colon - Making the Mets' job even tougher today is the fact they have Colon on the hill.  In eight starts, his ERA is 5.84 and things have only progressively gotten worse.  He's allowed seven runs in two of his last three starts, including the last one, which was against the Yankees.  He's already given up eight home runs this season, including a grand slam vs. the Yankees.  All of last year, Colon allowed just 14 home runs.

2.  Dominance over the Mets - As I mentioned before, Washington has now won nine in a row vs. the Mets.  They have scored 58 runs in those nine wins, which works out to roughly 6.5 per game.  All we need is SOMETHING from the Mets in this game in order for the Over to cash.

3.  X-Factor - Gio Gonzalez has not looked good his last four starts with a 5.16 ERA.  He lasted only 4 1/3 in his last start, giving up seven runs and nine hits.

Selection:  The play is Over New York-Washington (10*)

I like the Over this afternoon as Atlanta takes on St. Louis.  Yesterday's game was 5-2 in favor of the Cardinals and we'll need one more run scored today to make this a winning bet.  Given the way the Braves have been scoring, or should I say haven't been scoring, lately, that run would likely need to come from the home team.   I think they'll have their chances against Atlanta starter Harang, who was shelled the last time he started on the road.  Yesterday saw them score five runs, the first time since August of last year that Ervin Santana had allowed that many.

Here are my keys to the game:

1.  Control Issues -  The Cardinals will go with Shelby Miller in this game and if there has been one problem with him all year, it's been walking batters.  In every start this year, but one, he has walked at least three batters.  Ironically, that one start was against Harang and Atlanta.  But the fact remains that Miller's walk rate of 5.4 per nine innings remains the worst in all of baseball.  Overall, he has 27 BB's in 8 starts.   That's a big reason for his poor WHIP and the Braves should have some added opportunities for baserunners in this game.

2.  Harang On the Road - His last start outside of Turner Field was a disaster as he allowed 9 runs and 10 hits in less than five innings of work.  He does not have a strong history against the Cardinals with his 14 career losses the most against any one opponent.

3. X-Factor -   Miller is typically not lasting very long in his starts, averaging just 5 2/3 innings.  That's a problem for many reasons, one of them that St. Louis' bullpen has an ERA north of 4.00.

Selection:  This is an Over play on Atlanta-St. Louis (10*)