Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-22-24 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 223.5 | 99-101 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Lakers/Nuggets. Game 1 went UNDER the number in the Nuggets 114-103 victory. Note though that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. LA lost to Denver in the Playoffs last year as well, as this is just a difficult matchup for the Lakers as far as depth is concerned. Either way, all the work that Lebron and company have put in to get this point is once again on the line, as clearly an 0-2 hole will be difficult to climb out of. I anticipate LA pushing the pace of this one from start to finish. While Game 1 was a very defensive affair in the end, all signs point to a much more wide-open shootout this time around. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-22-24 | Magic +5.5 v. Cavs | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Magic. Orlando will be risking life and limb to avoid the 0-2 hole. Will that be enough to win this game outright? Maybe. But I do think that this one will go right down to the wire, so I'll be grabbing the points. Cleveland took Game 1 97-83, but note that the Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. Orlando shot poorly in Game 1, but I don't see that major discrepancy happening again. With the jitters out of the way, look for ORLANDO to, at the very least, keep this one interesting until the final moments. Grab the points, the play is ORLANDO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-22-24 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 202.5 | 86-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Magic/Cavs OVER. Game 1 went WELL under the number in the Cavaliers 97-83 win. Note though that the Magic have seen the total go OVER in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. This pick is part of a three-game report, and I also have a pick on the Magic. I anticipate Orlando to be much more efficient shooting the ball this time around. They just couldn't get anything to drop last time out. Cleveland isn't great defensively and I'm expecting a faster pace overall than what we saw in Game 1. This can still be a low-scoring overall game and easily eclipse this super low O/U line and that's exactly what I'm expecting as well. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-21-24 | Mavs v. Clippers OVER 222.5 | Top | 97-109 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Mavericks/Clippers. Dallas will look to push the pace here and steal the home-court advantage from the Clippers in my estimation. LA won the regular season series 2-1. The Mavs average 117.9 PPG, while conceding 115.6, so Dallas will have to be efficient in this series to pull off the slight upset. LA averaged 115.6 PPG, while allowing 112.3. I look for each team to at least reach its seasonal offensive average here. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-20-24 | Lakers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 103-114 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers. To say the "revenge" factor comes into play here would be an understatement, as Denver has won eight straight in this series. But note that five of those games were decided in the final five minutes. LA though enters playing its best basketball of the season after winning 12 of its last 15. The Lakers are healthier than they've been in years and it's now or never. Will that be good enough to pull off the straight up upset?! Maybe! But in the end, I'm going to grab the points with the LAKERS here in Game 1. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-19-24 | Kings v. Pelicans OVER 210 | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Kings/Pels. With Zion Williamson out, CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram will now be forced to push the pace here to keep up with the Kings. Sacramento has a golden opportunity here to avenge five straight regular season losses to the Pels right here. None of the five head-to-head meetings this year came in under 211 points, and they in fact averaged 237.2 points per game. The Kings defense isn't that great. And the Pels are going to be more stretched than ever. Expect a faster overall pace, and a more efficient game from each side than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe with what I feel to be a very low O/U line set for this one. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-19-24 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 205.5 | Top | 91-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Bulls/Heat. I'm expecting a very defensive battle here between the Bulls and Heat in this Final Play in contest. Last year the Bulls lost to Miami in the Play In, so they're out for revenge. Both teams though are moving on without their best offensive players. The Bulls were already without Zach Lavine, but Miami lost Jimmy Butler in the first half of the Bulls' win over the Hawks. With each team doubling down defensively here like I suspect, everything does definitely point to a lower-scoring defensive battle, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-17-24 | Hawks +3.5 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Hawks. ATL finished 36-36 and as the last seed in the East. All Star point guard Trae Young though is back and healthy for the playoffs. Experience counts at this time of year and Atlanta has a ton of it and Chicago has now, as note the Hawks are 3- in the Play-In Tournament in their history. ATL is fifth overall in scoring and has the potential to win this game outright. The Bulls finished 39-43, including just 20-21 at home. They've dealt with several injuries all year, including to star Zach Lavine, who is still out. Look for ATLANTA'S depth and experience to prove to be invaluable in this moment but, that said, make sure to grab as many points as you can. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 207.5 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Heat/76ers. Two really good coaches going head to head in this one and two pretty good teams as well. Regardless, while the oddsmakers have done their best to lead us to believe that this will be a lockdown defensive affair, I don't see it that way at all. In fact, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Nick Nurse and Eric Spoelstra have been here and done that. Now they just need to get the best out of their players. The two teams split the season series. Will home court advantage prove to be critical (read some of the other analysis contained inside this three-game report to find out!) These two teams can both play defense, but it's going to be the one that plays the most efficiently on the offensive end that comes out on top. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-17-24 | Heat v. 76ers -200 | 104-105 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the 76ers moneyline FIRST HALF (it's also a play on the 76ers for the GAME ATS, if no FIRST HALF line available.) If you can get a FIRST HALF line, I think Philly on the moneyline is worth the price of admission here. That said, if you can't, then I also like Philadelphia ATS for the entire game. As mentioned on my play on the OVER in the same game, these are two really well-coached teams. But having Joel Embiid back is a big difference-maker for Philly. The 76ers are built to slow down Heat star Jimmy Butler as well. I'm expecting a rout, the play is PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-16-24 | Warriors -140 v. Kings | 94-118 | Loss | -140 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Warriors moneyline. The Warriors took out the Kings in the first round last year. Golden State always gets the better of the Kings at this time of the season, and nothing will change here. Just like the Lakers pick, clearly the NBA wants Steph and company playing in these Playoffs as long as possible. Golden State came together down the stretch, and its experience can't be overlooked in this important Play-in contest. The play is GOLDEN STATE on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-16-24 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 223.5 | 94-118 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Warriors/Kings OVER. To go along with my play on the Warriors, I'm also going to play the OVER in the same game. The last time these teams played, Sacramento won 134-133 at Golden State back in January, and note that the Warriors have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-16-24 | Lakers -105 v. Pelicans | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Lakers moneyline. The bottom line here is that I think that the NBA wants the Lakers playing as long as possible throughout the playoffs. I also expect Anthony Davis to play out of his mind here and to do whatever he has to do to get the better of his old team. Experience counts at this point as well. I really respect the Pels and think their time will come. But time has run out for Bron, and this is the final "kick of the can." The play is LA on the MONEYLINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-14-24 | Bucks +5 v. Magic | Top | 88-113 | Loss | -109 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Bucks. It's a big game for both teams with playoff implications on the line. Both teams are really struggling as well, but despite not having Giannis Antetokounmpo on the court, I like the Bucks to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire in a competitive battle and to earn the comfortable cover with the handful of points that they've been afforded. Even without the Greek Freak, the correct call is still the Bucks. We just saw Milwaukee beat the Magic by 18 points without Giannis earlier this week. Orlando has dropped three straight games and its inexperience at this time of year will be its undoing. While I do think an outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is MILWAUKEE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-09-24 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Suns. This is the opener of a home and home set between the teams, and I think the Suns will risk life and limb here to secure the home victory. Phoenix had its three game win streak snapped last time out in a 113-105 home setback to New Orleans. But with its final three games on the road, this becomes a very important game for the SUNS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-08-24 | Purdue v. Connecticut OVER 145.5 | Top | 60-75 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBB TOM on the OVER Purdue/UConn. UConn has so far seen every game its played in during this tournament go UNDER the number, and I believe that this O/U line is now a bit TOO low. Note as well that the Huskies have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of their last ten after after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Purdue has seen its last three go UNDER the number, but note that the Boilermakers have also seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The two best teams in the country going head-to-head here and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written ALL over it. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOM on the Pelicans. The Pelicans have lost four straight, but despite who gets the start here today, I definitely am expecting New Orleans to put up a fight and go down hard trying. Most recently it was a 111-109 loss to San Antonio. Note that the Pels are 7-3 ATS in their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which they were a double-digit favorite though. They play with revenge as well after a 124-111 home loss to the Suns at the start of the month. That was the first win of three straight now for Phoenix, but note that the Suns are a sub-par 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU victories in a row. Grab the points, thep lay is NEW ORLEANS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-06-24 | Alabama v. Connecticut -11.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UConn. The Crimson Tide have exceeded expectations. They lost four of their final six games before the Tournament started, but here they are in the Final Four, and according to KenPom they've faced the toughest schedule so far in the Tournament. Bama can score with the best of them, averaging 90.8 PPG, but overall the Crimson Tide are ranked just 105th in defensive efficiency. The tourney defending champs on the other hand are ranked 1st in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. So far the Huskies are 4-0 ATS in this tournament, and with their ultimate goal now in sight, I expect them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points, the play is UCONN. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Purdue. With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. Lay the points, the play is indeed on PURDUE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue OVER 146.5 | 50-63 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER NC State/Purdue. With the majority of the public riding the Cinderella Wolfpack here, I'm going the other way. This is the first time that NC State has been in the Final 4 since 1983. The Boilermakers have won a school record 33 games this year and I think their deep and veteran team will pull away comfortably for the win here, and have NC State playing from behind from start to finish. So far the Wolfpack is averaging 75.5 PPG in this tourney, and conceding 65.5, while the Boilermakers are averaging 84 PPG, while holding teams to just 62.8. These two teams are on different levels and I don't see Purdue allowing the Wolfpack to dictate the pace of this one. I expect a wide-open shootout, but one that Purdue pulls away for both the blowout win and comfortable cover at the same time. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-05-24 | Heat v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 119-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOB on the UNDER Heat/Rockets. Both teams are fighting for a spot and each has been involved in several higher-scoring games of late. This time though, I'm expecting a very defensive battle. At the start of the year, totals were regularly in the 240's. Now we're seeing some dip as low as 202 etc. Regardless, this one sets up nicely to for a lower-scoring war in my opinion. Miami had its three-game win streak snapped in last night's 109-105 loss at home to Philly, so fatigue will be a factor for the Heat, who already play at a really slow pace. Houston plays with revenge after a 120-113 loss at Miami back in January, and note that the Rockets have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-04-24 | Indiana State v. Seton Hall UNDER 159 | Top | 77-79 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT TOTAL BK on the UNDER. It's the top two seeds going head-to-head here in the NIT Championship Game and instead of trying to figure out who is actually going to win/cover, I'm instead going to focus on the total. And for me, the old saying that "defense wins championships," couldn't be more apt here in my opinion. These are two great offensive teams, but the one that can step up and play better defensively is going to be the one that comes out on top. The Pirates did look good defensively though in their most recent 84-67 victory over Georgia. Indiana State just beat Utah 100-90, and it's seen the total go OVER in two straight now in the tournament. But the general betting public is now quick to hammer the OVER whenver the Sycamores and Larry Blur hit the court. While the majority go one way with this total, I'm going the other. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns UNDER 226.5 | Top | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOW on the UNDER Cavs/Suns. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one now points to this non-conference contest being a lot more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Cleveland has seen the total go OVER in six straight after last night's 129-112 win at Utah. With two whole nights off after this before a game at the Lakers, we feel fatigue will be an issue here for the visitors in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Phoenix returns home after a three-game road trip, and I believe that the Suns will have "heavy legs" here as well. I'm anticipating a very defensive affair here, so the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-02-24 | Georgia v. Seton Hall UNDER 145.5 | Top | 67-84 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Georgia/Seton Hall. The NIT shifts to MSG and I'm expecting much more of a defensive affair here between these two teams than what the oddsmakers are trying to leads us to believe. Seton Hall averages 73.3 PPG, and Georgia concedes 73.3. The Pirates allow only 69.8, while the Bulldogs average 74.9. This game is going to be tight from start to finish, but look for the longer lay off to give these teams their "legs" back, and for that to benefit the defensive end. I say this one falls UNDER once the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP | |||||||
04-02-24 | Thunder v. 76ers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Thunder/76ers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much tighter affair here on Tuesday finally. OKC is coming off back-to-back victories. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight after its most recent 113-112 road win at New York, but that's significant to take note of, as the Thunder have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Philly just snapped a three-game slide with a big 135-120 road win North of the border and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the 76ers have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. I think these teams are fatigued, and that's going to translate into this particular contest being much more defense-oriented than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-31-24 | Jazz v. Kings OVER 222.5 | Top | 106-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Jazz/Kings. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a high-scoring "shootout" here in my opinion finally on Sunday. Utah is trying to snap an eight game slide. It plays with revenge here after a 125-104 loss to the Kings here back on December 16th, ando note that the Jazz have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Sacramento lost two straight to the Mavericks and their offense stalled. The Kings have seen the total go UNDER in six straight now, but that fact has only helped in driving today's O/U line a bit lower than it normally would/should be as well in my opinion. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-31-24 | NC State v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 76-64 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* ELITE 8 TOP SIDE on Duke. I've played on both these teams already in this tournament. However, I believe that the Wolfpack's Cinderella run is coming to an end finally. Duke averages 79 PPG, while conceding 66. NC State averages 76 PPG, while conceding 72.2. These teams split a pair of games this year, but Duke will now have a chance to avenge the quarterfinal loss in the Conference tournament game. Duke's an elite team that's had a couple huge "brain farts" this year. It's able to match up with anyone and it looked dominant defensively in its win over Houston. I don't see the Wolfpack beating the Blue Devils twice in two weeks. Duke was an 11.5-point favorite in the Conference Tournament, so is a huge overreaction now by the oddsmakers in trying to "lead" the general betting public?! I'm not buying it, and am instead laying the points here with revenge-minded DUKE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-30-24 | Illinois v. Connecticut OVER 154.5 | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Illinois/Connecticut. What more can be said about these two teams which hasn't been said a million times at this point. If you're betting on this game, you almost assuredly know all the cast of characters on each side, and the strengths and weaknesses of each side. Illinois averages 84.2 PPG, while allowing 73.2. UConn averages 81.6 PPG, while allowing 63.6. Coach Dan Hurley says, "We suck at winning close games, [so] you've got to go with the alternative." With the defending champs pushing the pace like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-29-24 | Mavs v. Kings OVER 230 | Top | 107-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Mavs/Kings. This total is a little low for a few different reasons in my opinion. Both sides have been involved in several lower-scoring affairs of late, including in their most recent matchup together just two nights ago here when Dallas won 132-96. That result though is very important for a few different reasons. The first being that Sacramento has seen the total go "over" the number eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. And with the loss, Sacramento has now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is also significant for us to take note of, as the Kings have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Dallas has won five straight now, and it's seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that the Mavs have also seen the total dip below the posted number in six of their last eight after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I'm anticipating, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-29-24 | Duke v. Houston -3.5 | 54-51 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Houston. I had a play on Duke in its win over James Madison last time out, but I think the No. 4 Blue Devils will bow out here now vs. the No. 1 seed Houston. The Cougars survived an OT thriller with Texas A&M, and with that legendary game now under their belts, I think we'll see a much more efficient Houston side here. The Cougars are basck in the Sweet 16 for the fifth straight time and they're going to have a distinct home-court advantage here, as this South Region portion is being played in Dallas. Lay the points, the play is HOUSTON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-29-24 | Gonzaga v. Purdue -5.5 | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Purdue. Gonzaga beat McNeese and a banged-up Kansas side, but I say it's run in this year's Tourney comes to an end this weekend. Overall they average 85.6 PPG, while conceding 68.7. Purdue averages 84.2, while allowing 70.2. The Boilermakers have had a more difficult schedule, have been more consistent overall this season, and will have the best player on the floor in Zach Edey (24.5 points and 12.1 rebounds.) Lay the points, the play is PURDUE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-29-24 | NC State +6.5 v. Marquette | 67-58 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NC State. NC State ranks 42nd nationally on offense and 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Marquette is healthy an on a mission of its own. The Golden Eagles are 19th on offense and 21st on defense. The Wolfpack have been one of these teams that simply won't go away and I expect that to again be the case in this matchup. Marquette will likely win this game, but it's going to be a dogfight down to the end, as Marquette does lack that killer's mentality overall in my opinion. Either way, grab the points with NC STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-28-24 | Alabama +4.5 v. North Carolina | 89-87 | Win | 100 | 32 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Alabama. The Tide is the Nation's No. 1 scoring team and I think Alabama's offense will, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Overall the Tide average 90.7 PPG, while UNC averages 90 so far over the first two games. Alabama will have its hands full in the middle with Armando Bacot, but look for their efficient shooting to keep them in this one late. Grab the points, the play is ALABAMA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-28-24 | San Diego State +11 v. Connecticut | 52-82 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on San Diego State. SDSU survived a late push from UAB in the first round, and then it blew out Yale 85-57 in the second. The Huskies are on a mission to repeat as Tourney champs after cruising by Stetson, before beating Northwestern 75-58. The Aztecs are out for revenge here after falling to the Huskies in last year's tournament championship game 76-59. SDSU returns many of those same players and I expect that experience to be crucial in this one. Grab the points, the play is SDSU. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-28-24 | Clemson +7.5 v. Arizona | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Clemson. Clemson beat No. 11 seed New Mexico, then upset Clemson by eight points to arrive to this point, while Arizona beat LBSU, before then taking down No. 7 seed Dayton by ten. The Tigers ranks 24th in offensive efficiency, and 38th in defensive efficiency, while Arizona is ninth in offensive and tenth in defensive efficency. PJ Hall and the Tigers won't be going down without a fight here. I'll argue it's had the tougher road to this point. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do think this one will be a "nail-biter." Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-27-24 | UNLV v. Seton Hall -4.5 | Top | 68-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall. I'm a contrarian at heart, but when you get to this point of the season with so few games and teams remaining, I believe "where the money is" so to speak becomes less of an important factor. And that's the case in this one with UNLV visting Seton Hall in the quarterfinals. I had a play on the Pirates in their most recent 72-58 home win over defending tourney champ North Texas and I thought the home floor advantage would be important in the outcome in that one, and that'll again be the case once the final horn sounds in this one as well. The Rebels first took care of Penn 84-77 on the road, before returning home to beat Boston College by a score of 79-70. So far the Rebels have won their first two games by an average of eight points, but they haven't been great defensively, conceding 78 points so far in the early going. The Pirates had to hold on for dear life in their first game, beating Saint Joseph's 75-72 in overtime, but they looked a lot better in their win over the Mean Green, beating North Texas 72-58. It's just packed every time Seton Hall plays, and while the Rebels have been decent on the road this year with an 8-3 record, I just think their time has now run out here on Wednesday night. Hall has stepped up its defensive play in the tournament, holding its two opponents to an average of just 65 points per game. The Pirates are also the much better rebounding team. I think when you add it all up, home court advantage will indeed prove critical in the outcome of this game on Wednesday night for SETON HALL. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-26-24 | Mavs v. Kings OVER 235 | Top | 132-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOM on the OVER Mavs/Kings. The Mavericks are playing well after four straight wins. That includes a 115-105 win at Utah last night. Dallas has seen the total go UNDER in five straight now, but note that the Mavs have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. This is the start of two straight here in Sacramento between the clubs, and because of that I'm expecting this first one to be faster-paced. Note as well that Dallas plays with revenge after falling 120-115 to the Kings at home as a 4-point favorite, and note as well that the Mavericks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Kings have won four of their last five. They've also seen the total go UNDER in five straight after their most recent 108-96 home win over Philly. Note though that Sacramento has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last ten after a SU/ATS home win in which it held its opponent to 99 or fewer points in. The stage is set for a wide-open shootout between these teams tonight, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-26-24 | Cincinnati v. Indiana State OVER 153.5 | Top | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT TOY on the OVER Cincinnati/Indiana State. Cincinnati beat San Francisco 73-72 in OT to open, and then 74-57 over Bradley. Both of those totals were set at 143.5 and the only reason the Game 1 total went OVER the number was because it went to OT. Now here are the Bearcats facing another high-tempo and efficient offense and I don't think this number is nearly high enough. Indiana State beat SMU 101-92, before then pulling away for the 76-65 victory over Minnesota. I'm fully expecting each side to reach into the 80's in this one. Indiana State is 15-1 at home this year and will look to get the Bearcats out of their comfort zone, and playing from behind. Keep your eyes on Cream Abdul-Jabarr, who leads a highly efficent offense (best "2-point" offense in the country at 62.7%.) Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-25-24 | Blazers v. Rockets UNDER 225 | Top | 92-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST-CONF TOW on the UNDER Blazers/Rockets. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here finally on Monday between these Western Conference opponents on Monday night. Portland is just 8-25 on the road this season. It comes in off six straight losses. It's seen the total go OVER in five straight after its most recent 114-111 loss at home to Denver, but note that the Blazers have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The Rockets are arguably the hottest team in the league right now with eight straight victories. Most recently it was a 147-119 win over Utah. Houston has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in five straight games, but note that the Rockets have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. These teams played to a higher-scoring OVER just at the start of the month in the Rockets 123-107 win at Portland, but all signs point to a much tighter and lower-scoring UNDER this time around. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-25-24 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 219 | Top | 96-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOW on the OVER Nets/Raptors. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm anticipating much more of a wide-open offensive affair in this one. Brooklyn is off six straight losses, including a 105-93 setback at New York last time out. Note though that the Nets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. Toronto is off ten straight losses. So something has to give for one of these two teams today. Each is in tank mode, but note that the Raptors have seen the total go OVER the number in six of their last eight still after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for these two hungry sides to push the pace and to play efficiently and for this total to ultimatley soar OVER the number before the final buzzer sounds. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-25-24 | Montana v. Arkansas State UNDER 155.5 | Top | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* CBI TOURNEY TOM on the UNDER Arkansas State/Montana. It's the quarter-finals of the CBI and while both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games to this point, I'm anticiapting a much more defensive affair this afternoon finally. Arkansas State is off a nail-biting 86-85 win over BCU. Overall it averages 79 PPG, while allowing 77.6 this year. Montana enters off a super high-scoring affair as well, holding on for an 82-79 overtime victory over Presbyterian. Overall the Grizzlies average 77.3 PPG, while conceding 71.3. These teams don't typically play at a fast pace and each comes in fatigued. Look for this afternoon contest to produce a much more defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-24-24 | Yale +5.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 57-85 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Yale. SDSU held on for the 69-65 win over UAB in the First Round, and was unable to cover the 6.5-point spread. I think the Aztecs will now also struggle to cover here vs. this confident and red hot Yale side got the better of Auburn 78-76 as 14-point dogs. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU in neutral site games this year and simply won't be fazed. They had to compete with the Tigers in the middle of the paint last time out, but they do in fact matchup a lot better here vs. the Aztecs. Outright win?! Anything's possible, but I see this one coming down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is YALE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-24-24 | Clemson +4.5 v. Baylor | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Clemson. While I think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Clemson hammered New Mexico 77-56 to advance, while Baylor breezed by Colgate 92-67. The Tigers locked down New Mexico and held the Lobos to just 31 percent shooting, and I believe this aggressive defensive play will give the underdog a legit chance at winning this one outright. Grab the points, the play is CLEMSON. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-24-24 | James Madison v. Duke -7 | Top | 55-93 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Duke. I think No. 12 seed James Madison's Cinderella run will come to an end here vs. No. 4 Duke. James Madison got out to an early lead and never looked back in the win over Wisconsin, but Duke buried Vermont 64-47. The Dukes only concede 68.9 PPG, but Duke averages 79.4. I think the Blue Devils up-tempo offense will be just too much for James Madison to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is DUKE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-23-24 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST TOW on the UNDER Nuggets/Blazers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting much more of a defensive affair here on Saturday. Denver is 21-15 on the road. It's coming off a 113-100 win over New York. It returns home for five straight after this. It beat Portland 127-112 in February, but everything points to a much tighter and defensive affair this time around. The Blazers enters off five straight losses, and note that Portland has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after five or more SU losses in a row. Portland fell 125-117 here at home to the Clippers just last night, so fatigue will also be an issue for the home side here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. All of these different situational factors point to this total staying well UNDER the posted number once the final horn sounds. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-23-24 | Duquesne v. Illinois -9.5 | Top | 63-89 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOLDEN SIDE PLAY on Illinois. I say No. 11 Duquesne's "Cinderella" run comes to an end here vs. No. 3 Illinois on Saturday night. The Illini smashed Morhead State 85-69, and I'm predicting a similar final outcome in this one as well. The Dukes somehow managed a 71-67 win over No. 6 BYU as nine-point dogs, and I say there's now a major over-reaction by the general betting public for the underdog side. Lay the points with confidence, the play is ILLINOIS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-23-24 | Gonzaga v. Kansas +4.5 | Top | 89-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on Kansas. I had a play on Gonzaga in its opening round win over McNeese State, but I believe the Bulldogs will have their hands full here with the Jayhawks. Kansas beat Samford 93-89 to move, but was unable to cover the 7.5-point spread. The Jayhawks are without their best player, but they're still loaded with talent, including the likes of Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams. Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard round out a deep Gonzaga squad, but I don't see Kansas going down here without a fight. In a game that I see going down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. The play is KANSAS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-23-24 | North Texas v. Seton Hall -3.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Seton Hall. UNT moved into the second round of the NIT with a big road win at LSU on Tuesday (I had the Mean Green in that one), but I believe they'll now finally stumble here in this difficult road venue. They're the defending champs of this Tournament, but with a new coach. While they pulled off the slight road upset in the First Round, I'm not predicting lightning to "strike twice" here. I also had the Pirates in their 75-72 win over St. Joes, and while they did win SU, they didn't cover the four-point spread. But the Pirates own a size advantage, while also bringing a better overall offense to the table (with pretty much even defensive units.) SETON HALL is 15-3 at home this year and the fans will be out here in force to ensure there will be a new NIT champion this year. Lay the points. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-22-24 | James Madison v. Wisconsin -5.5 | Top | 72-61 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOP CONTRARIAN SIDE on Wisconsin. I think No. 12 James Madison will have its hands full here with No. 5 seed Wisconsin. The Badgers are coming off a close loss in the Big Ten Championship game and I see them taking out their frustrations here on the Dukes. James Madison has won 13 straight, which includes the Sun Belt Tourney Championship, but the old saying: all good things must come to an end, couldn't be more apt in my opinion. The Dukes only managed one win over a ranked team, it was their first game of the year at then No. 4 Michigan State, winning 79-76. I don't think they'd win again if those teams played today. Look for the Badgers size and and shooting percentage to be just too much for James Madison to keep up to down the stretch. Lay the points, the play is on WISCONSIN. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-22-24 | Celtics v. Pistons OVER 222.5 | Top | 129-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Celtics/Pistons. These teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a "shootout" here in Detroit in my opinion finally. Boston is 55-14 overall, including 23-11 on the road, while Detroit is only 12-57 overall, including 7-29 at home. The Pistons have lost four straight now, and they've seen the total go UNDER in six straight. Scoring is down around the league right now. One of those losses includes a 119-94 setback at Boston just a couple of nights ago, and note that Detroit has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. Boston enters off six straight wins over six straight sub-par teams. The Celtics should win again tonight as well after holding on for the 122-119 win over Milwaukee at home last time out. I suspect a similar final combined score in this one as well, as all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-22-24 | UAB v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on San Diego State. I think SDSU will not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion, making this a spread in which I have no issues at all in laying. UAB finished 23-11, while SDSU was 24-10. UAB beat Temple in the AAC Championship Game, while the Aztecs earned the No. 5 seed by finishing 11-7 in the Mountain West, ranked in the Top 25 for most of the season. UAB managed to rattle off three wins in the conference tournament, but I think it'll have its hands full here. Overall the Blazers average 77.4 PPG, while conceding 75.8. SDSU averags 74.2 PPG, while conceding only 67.3. The difference will come down the stretch on the defensive end. Lay the points with confidence, the play is SDSU. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-21-24 | McNeese State v. Gonzaga -6.5 | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Gonzaga. No. 12 seeds are just 53-99 vs. No. 5 seeds in this Tournament. Gonzaga finished 25-7 overall, while McNeese State was 30-3. The Cowboys are a tough team under coach Will Wade, who took LSU to the Sweet 16 in 2019, but the Bulldogs experience here at this point will prove to be a difference-maker in my opinion. Mark Few will find a way to not only win this game, but do so in blowout fashion. Lay the points, the play is GONZAGA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-21-24 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 207.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Pels/Magic. At the start of the year, we saw a lot of high-scoring games. Not so much anymore! That said, I do now think this O/U line is much too low here. New Orleans is off three straight wins. It's No. 1 in the Southwest. It has another tough game at Miami tomorrow night. These teams all play tough defense, but the one that's the most efficient on the offensive end will win this game. This doesn't need to be a super high-scoring game at all to over this super low number. Orlando has won four straight and is No. 1 in the Southeast. It's seen the total go UNDER in three straight after its most recent 112-92 win over Charlotte (second straight opponent its held to under 100 points.) Note though that the Magic have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-21-24 | Oakland +13.5 v. Kentucky | 80-76 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Oakland. The Wildcats can score. We all know this. But they can't defend. And the Grizzlies know this. In what will likely turn out to be a high-scoring shootout, we think that Oakland can "hang" with the Wildcats and, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with all the points they've been afforded in this one. The Grizz have been competitive all year, as evidenced by their 21-13 ATS record this season. Oakland was a dog in 12 games this year and covered in nine of them. No outright in this one, but much closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, the play is OAKLAND. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-21-24 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Texas | 44-56 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Colorado State. Ultimately I feel that "rest" will lead to "rust" here for Texas. Colorado State rolls into the Round of 64 off a dominant 25-point victory over Virginia, shooting 55.3 percent from the field, while holding its opponent to just 25 percent shooting. The Longhorns have been off since March 13th when they lost in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. Joel Scott looks on fire right now again for the Rams, so I'm grabbing the points with COLORADO STATE in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-20-24 | Colorado v. Boise State +2.5 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Boise State. Colorado finished 24-10 and had its eight-game win streak snapped in its 75-68 loss to Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament title game, but they return to the Tournament in the First Four for the first time since 2021. Boise State finished 22-10, and it's one of the only teams to earn a bid after losing its first conference tournament game. The Broncos though had some big wins this year and won't be fazed. They beat Saint Mary's and went 2-1 in their last three regular-season games vs. Tournament bound teams. Boise State defends the three-point line incredibly well, ranked 23rd nationally, while also finishing with a top-five defensive rebounding percentage. Colorado won only one game away from home vs. an NCAA Tournament team. Boise State has two extra days of rest here after losing its first game in the conference tournament, which is really big situationally as well at this point of the year. While I clearly feel the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with BOISE STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-20-24 | St. Joe's v. Seton Hall -7 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT OPENING RND TOP SIDE on Seton Hall. If we're looking at this from a betting perspective, which clearly we are, then we find that nearly 75 percent of the early public money is on the visiting side. That of course makes the home side really attractive to me, appealing to my natrual contrarian ways. The Hawks enter the NIT Tournament averaging 76.7 PPG, while allowing 71.3. Erik Reynolds II leads the nightly charge by averaging 17 points and 2.7 rebounds. Seton Hall averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.5. Kadary Richmond leads most nights by averaging 16.1 points and 4.9 assists. The Pirates are 14-3 SU at home. I think they'll control the pace of this one and be able to pull away down the stretch for not only the win, but also the comfortable cover. Lay the points, the play is SETON HALL. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-20-24 | Grambling State +4 v. Montana State | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Grambling State. I think Grambling State is primed for its first-ever NCAA Tournament win, in its first-ever Tournament Berth, after beating Texas Southern in the SWAC Tournament, after losing in the same game each of the last two years. The Montana State Bobcats entered the regular-season finale with a 13-17 record, and then they posted four straight wins, winning the Big Sky Conference Tournament to earn a third straight NCAA tournament berth (note that the Bobcats are 0-5 all-time in March Madness games.) The Bobcats got hot from range in March and won their tournament, but Grambling State defends the perimeter incredibly well, allowing the second-lowest percentage (30%) in the SWAC. Montana State struggles to defend the rim, ranking near the bottom in many metrics. So that plays into Grambling State's strength, as it generates 53 percent of its points from inside the arc. Look for Grambling State to exploit this weakness, which could also easily lead to an outright victory. That said, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with GRAMBLING STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves OVER 212.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* NORTHWEST TOM on the OVER Nuggets/Wolves. These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late (like most of the NBA right now!), but I'm finally expecting more of a wide-open shootout here. Denver is 40-17 overall, but just 20-15 on the road. It's off a 107-105 loss at Dallas, snapping a five-game win streak. The Nuggets have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but that's significant for us to take note, as Denver has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Denver plays with the added incentive of revenge here after a humbling 110-89 loss to Minnesota back in early November, and note that the Nuggets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 90 or fewer points in. Minnesota is also 47-21, including 23-8 at home. The Wolves have won three straight after last night's 114-104 win at Utah. They return home here after a six-game road trp and are playing the second game of the back-to-back, but will look to keep the pressure on the defending champs by pushing the pace in my opinion. This number is a little low now, so the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-19-24 | Colorado State v. Virginia OVER 119.5 | Top | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Colorado State/UVA. This is the lowest total on the board, but it's a bit TOO low in my estimation. Yes, these two teams feature two of the slowest paces in the country, but the Rams still feature a Top 50 offense led by senior Isiah Stevens (ranked seventh nationally in assists.) The team oveall is ranked second in the country in assist rate as well at 65.7 percent. These teams lost in their conference tournaments and enter as tenth seeds. Virginia of course plays smothering defense and ranks seventh in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. But the Cavaliers have conceded at least 60 points in four of their last five games, and note that the Rams have scored 60-plus in nine straight. This can still be a low-scoring game and go OVER this tiny number, and that's exactly what I'm expecting to see transpire. This O/U line is low in my estimation, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-19-24 | Kansas State v. Iowa -5.5 | Top | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT ATS BLOOD-BATH on Iowa. Kansas State finished 19-14, but just 2-8 in true road games. Iowa finished 18-14 overall, but 13-4 at home. I think these numbers matter right now here in this NIT Opening matchup, as look for the Hawkeyes to not only win this game, but to do so by a sizeable margin. The Hawkeyes averaged 82.9 PPG, while conceding 79. The Wildcats average 71.9 PPG, while allowing 70.5. The margin of error is pretty slim for each team, but there's a big road a home discrepancy factor that comes into play here. Tournament time and home floor advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. Lay the points, the play is IOWA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-19-24 | North Texas +3 v. LSU | Top | 84-77 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* NIT ULTIMATE BK on North Texas. North Texas has a new coach this year in Ross Hodge. UNT enters the defending NIT champs though and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. UNT finished 18-14, while LSU was 17-15. The Mean Green went 4-2 down the stretch, while Matt McMahon and the Tigers went 3-2 in their final five. Interestingly, this is the second meeting of the season between the teams, and UNT plays with revenge after the 66-62 neutral site loss to LSU back on November 17th. But that was then, and this is now. UNT enters 73rd in the KenPom rankings, while LSU is 91st. The Mean Green have one of the best defenses in the nation still, and that'll be the difference-maker in the end. While I clearly feel the outright is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with NORTH TEXAS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-19-24 | Wagner +3.5 v. Howard | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOWOUT on Wagner. These two teams were "lucky" to win their respective conference tournaments to earn this opportunity, but that said, I still have no idea how the books have Howard favored here. They won two more games, but they have one of the worst defenses in the entire nation and they also turn it over 21.7 percent of their possessions (easily the worst of all the teams in the Tournament.) The Seahawks have the second slowest tempo in the country, but they also rank tenth in opponent three-point %, which counters Howard's crutch on leaning on the three-ball for offensive production. Wagner seems to be the healthier team coming in on paper as well from what I'm seeing. In a contest that could come down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is WAGNER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-18-24 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 208.5 | Top | 91-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-CONF TOW on the OVER Heat/76ers. Everything points to a wide-open offensive affair here between the Heat and 76ers in my opinion. Miami is 20-15 on the road and Philly is 20-15 at home. The Heat broke a four-game slide by beating the Pistons twice most recently in a B2B between the teams. Miami enters having seen the total go UNDER in six straight, but despite that, note that the Heat have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 still after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. The 76ers are doing their best to maintain their position. They're off a 109-98 win over Charlotte here last time out. They've seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that the 76ers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I anticipate, I do finally think this O/U line is too low, so the play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans -7 | Top | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT on the Pelicans. LA snapped a two-game slide with a 126-111 road win at Chicago just last night, but I believe it'll be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, with players being rested as well. LA returns home to face Atlanta, followed by two straight vs. Portland, so the visitors also get caught "looking ahead" here. New Orleans had its four-game win streak snapped last time out here with a 116-95 setback to Cleveland, but the Pels beat LA 117-106 on the road at the start of February and I'm expecting a similar result here as well. The Pels have Portland coming to town tomorrow, so they don't have anything to "look past" here. This one has "BLOWOUT" written all over it in my opinion; lay the points, the play is New Orleans! Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-15-24 | South Carolina v. Auburn UNDER 142.5 | Top | 55-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* SEC TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER South Carolina/Auburn. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including in their first Tournament contest, and because of that I believe this O/U line is now inflated here on Friday night. South Carolina is off an 80-66 win oer Arkansas yesterday, with the total just sneaking OVER the number of 143.5. The Gamecocks most recently lost to Auburn 101-61 in mid-February, anod that South Carolina has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Auburn closed out the regular season with three straight victories, but it hasn't played since March 9th. Look for each side to double-down on the defensive end though here in the rematch as this Over/Under line is now a little TOO high in my estimation. The play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-15-24 | Wichita State v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on UAB. This is the AAC Quarterfinal. The Shockers are off an upet over Memphis 71-65 as nine-point dogs and I believe they'll now predictably stumble here vs. UAB which plays its first game of the Conference Tournament after beating SMU 74-70 in its regular-season finale. These teams played once in the regular season, and UAB fell 74-66 as an 8-point home favorite, which is signficant for us to take note of, as the Blazers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. look for the well-rested BLAZERS to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence! Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Thunder. Just a really great spot of OKC. Dallas has been on a role as it's won four straight, including a 109-99 home win over the Warriors just last night. But now the Thunder can take advantage of this fatigued visiting side, while also getting to avenge a 146-111 loss at Dallas in early February. With a couple nights off, followed by a home game vs. the defending champs, not only is this a "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead." Look for OKC to have no mercy and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-14-24 | UTEP v. Liberty -3.5 | 66-57 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Liberty. This one is based upon revenge from their most recent regular-season meeting. UTEP finished 16-15, and Liberty was 18-13. In their most recent matchup on March 2nd, the Miners somehow managed the 67-51 road win as nine-point dogs. Note that the Flames are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Lay the points, the play is LIBERTY. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-14-24 | St Bonaventure v. Loyola-Chicago -2.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Loyola Chicago. Conference Tournament time, and the end of the season in general means that I handicap the games differently than I do in the regular season. This one is all about the "revenge" factor, because the last time these teams played against each other, 23-7 Loyola Chicago lost 79-64 to the 18-12 Bonnies on February 27th, and note that the Ramblers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Look for the neutral site location to favor LOYOLA CHICAGO in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-14-24 | Tulsa +2.5 v. East Carolina | 79-84 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane finished 16-14, while ECU was 14-17. The Hurricane beat No. 24 USF 76-70 in their regular season finale, while the Pirats lost 82-72 at 1.5-point home favorites to Charlotte. Tulsa plays with revenge after their most recent matchup, a 62-57 loss on January 7th. I say all of these factors combine for TULSA to, at the very least, pull off the ATS cover this afternoon. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-13-24 | Lakers -118 v. Kings | Top | 107-120 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the Lakers moneyline. Just a really great spot for the Lakers. The Kings come in off a big 129-94 win over the Bucks just last night, and I believe they're primed for a letdown here now facing this improved Lakers team. LA is arguably playing its best basketball of the season right now. The Lakers are even having AD show flashes of his former self right now. LA has won three of its last four as well, including back-to-back wins over the Bucks and Wolves. The one loss in that time was a 130-120 setback to these very Kings. Note though that the Lakers are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. I'm saying bypass the spread option, just take LA to win this one straight-up on the MONEY-LINE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-13-24 | Stanford v. California +2.5 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 GOM on Cal. With nearly 70% of the early public money on Stanford, we're definitely going full on contrarian with this one. Stanford snapped a six-game slide at the end of the regular season with an 80-58 win over these same Cal Bears. Cal though won 73-71 at home back on January 26th. Cal didn't cover in either game, but now here in this neutral location, I believe these evenly matched sides will battle down to the wire. This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top in the season "grudge match." Grab the points, the play is indeed on CAL. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-13-24 | Florida State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 153 | Top | 86-76 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER FSU/Virginia Tech. These teams have played to several higher-scoring games to close out the regular season, and in their last matchup vs. each other their total also eclipsed the posted number. But those facts have only helped in driving this Tournament O/U line a few points higher than it normally would/should be in my opinion. FSU closed the regular season with an 83-75 win over Miami, but note that the Seminoles have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. They lost 83-75 to Virginia Tech on the road back in February, and note that the Seminoles have also seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. The Hokies closed out the year with three straight wins, but the team that steps up and plays some defense today will be the one that comes out on top. I say this number is much too high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-12-24 | Denver v. South Dakota State OVER 160.5 | Top | 68-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUMMIT LEAGUE TOY on the OVER Denver/South Dakota State. These teams have played to some lower-scoring affairs so far in the Confernece Tournament, but I'm finally expecting more of an offensive battle here between Denver and South Dakota State on Tuesday night. The Pioneers managed the tight 66-63 win over Nebraska Omaha to advance, while South Dakota State beat Oral Roberts 79-63 and St. Thomas 59-49. Both games went UNDER the number. When these teams played last in the regular season though, the total went OVER the posted number of 165.5 in the Jackrabbits commanding 97-70 win. While I do expect a much more competitive battle this time around, I do believe we'll see a similar pace and final combined score in this one as well. With each team pushing the pace like I suspect, everything does indeed point to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned! Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-12-24 | 76ers v. Knicks OVER 208.5 | Top | 79-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION TOM on the OVER 76ers/Knicks. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I suspect a much more wide-open offensive affair here finally on Tuesday. The 76ers are injured and down men, but they somehow managed a 79-73 win over the Knicks here two nights ago. New York though has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent in which it was held to 79 or fewer points in. Look for New York to come out fired up here and to set the early tone. This O/U line is now TOO low, so the play is indeed on the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-11-24 | San Francisco +7.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 77-89 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* WEST COAST TOURNEY GOY on San Francisco. San Francisco finished 23-9 overall in the West Coast Conference, but it wasn't good enough to earn a first round bye. The Dons though went on to smoke Portland 72-51 yesterday, not "looking past" their lowly opponent whatsoever. The Dons faced the Bulldogs twice in the regular season and lost both times. One was really close, one was a blowout. The Dons lost 77-72 at Gonzaga on January 25th, then they also lost 86-68 at home to the Bulldogs on February 29th. Now here in this neutral site location in Vegas, I believe the Dons will keep it close, similar to what they did on the road earlier in the year. The win over Portland only helps with chemistry, while the time off could lead to a little rust for Gonzaga. It's difficult to beat a team three times in the same year. That's the old saying anyway. That said, I'm not calling for an outright victory, but I for sure am expecting this to be a battle until the final horn. This is a great overall situational play, so grab the points, because the play is indeed on SAN FRANCISCO. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-10-24 | CS Sacramento v. Eastern Washington UNDER 140.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY TOURNEY TOY on the UNDER Sacramento State/Eastern Washington. Sacramento State got past Idaho 72-64 yesterday, so dating back to the regular season the Hornets have now seen the total go OVER in three straight. Note though that CSUS has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. The Hornets lost 91-88 to Eastern Washington in the final regular season game against each other, and while that total flew well OVER the number, now that the Tournament is here, I'm expecting a much more defensive battle this time around. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-10-24 | Pelicans v. Hawks OVER 222 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Pels/Hawks. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting more of an offensive shootout here finally. New Orleans is off three straight wins. It's seen the total go UNDER in six of its last seven. The Pels play with revenge here though after the 123-105 loss at home to ATL as two-point favs at the start of the season, and note that New Orleans has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a fav vs. an opponent. ATL has also won three straight SU/ATS after a low-scoring 99-92 win at Memphis, but note that the Hawks have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight SU/ATS wins in a row. Look for this one be less intense defensively and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-09-24 | Idaho State -4 v. Northern Arizona | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG SKY TOURNEY GOY on Idaho State. Two poor teams, but Idaho State plays with revenge here after a 92-88 OT home loss to NAU as a 7.5-point favorite back in late February, and note that the Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Idaho State is just 12-19, while NAU is only 14-18. This neutral site affair favors Idaho State for a number of different reasons. It's tourney time guys and I don't have a lot of extra time for analysis these days. But with nearly 75% of the early public money on NAU, we're going the other way. The play is IDAHO STATE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-09-24 | Bulls v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Bulls/Clippers. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a defensive battle here. Chicago is off three straight road victories, the latest a 125-122 road win at Golden State as an 8.5-point dog. Note though that the Bulls have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS road win as underdogs. The Clippers enter off a 122-116 win at Houston, but with Milwaukee and Minnesota coming to town up next, I'm expecting the home side to focus on the defensive end tonight as it saves "gas" for the upcoming schedule. This number is high, the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-09-24 | Campbell v. Monmouth UNDER 145.5 | Top | 67-90 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* Colonial Conference Tournament TOY on the UNDER Campbell/Monmouth. Campbell finished 14-17 overall, while Monmouth finished 17-14. These teams played three weeks ago, and Monmouth managed the tight 88-87 home win on a three-pointer at the buzzer, and suffice it to say, I'm expecting another tight battle until the end. But while that total flew well OVER the number, this time around here now in the Tournament, I'm expecting a much more defensive battle. The Fighting Camels closed the year with a 64-62 win over North Carolina A&T, while Monmouth finished with an 85-70 win at Elon to close out its regular season campaign. Campbell though has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 when trying to avenge a SU loss against an opponent. In my opinion, this total is just a little bit high, so the play is the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-08-24 | VMI +15 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 66-98 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* SOUTHERN GOY on VMI. Outright victory? I'm not calling for that. But I do just thinkg that 16-15 East Tennessee State is severely overvalued here. The Buccaneers won both games vs. the 4-27 VMI Keydets, who I think can keep this one competitive until the final moments. On the year the Kadets averaged 69 PPG, while allowing 82.1. East Tennessee State averaged 70.2 PPG, while allowing 69.3. Victories when they did come for the Bucs, were always tight. They lost 82-69 at East Tennessee State on February 21st, but I'm expecting an even tighter battle here during the tournament. It's difficult to beat a team three times in one year. I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think this will be a much tougher fight for the Bucs than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. So grab the points, the play is indeed on VMI. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-08-24 | Pelicans v. 76ers +8.5 | Top | 103-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* BK on the 76ers. The 76ers are going to have a tough time of it for the rest of the season most nights without star Joel Embiid in the line-up. But there will be some nights and spots where it makes sense to back Philly, and tonight is one of those times. New Orleans comes in off back-to-back wins, but note that after three straight ATS victories, it's relevant to note here that the visiting side is in fact just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS victories in a row. Philly does indeed play with revenge here as well after a 124-114 road loss as a 2.5-point favorite back in late November, and note that the 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. As I say, without Embiid it's the "next man up" mentality for the 76ers every single night, and most nights that won't work out too well for them, but here is a great spot for Philadelphia to finally be extremely competitive. I'm stopping short in calling for the outright, but all signs point to a battle until the final horn. Grab the points, the play is indeed on PHILADELPHIA. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-07-24 | Raptors v. Suns OVER 230.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Raptors/Suns. This one sets up great for a few different reasons to be more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle. Toronto is off a listless 139-98 home loss to New Orleans, but note that it's seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. The Suns play with revenge after a 112-105 loss at Toronto as 3.5-point favorites back on November 29th, and note that Phoenix has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four in trying to avenge SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Suns have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven straight despite a 117-107 OT win at Denver in their most recent victory. With both team's pushing the pace like I suspect from start to finish, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-07-24 | Washington v. Washington State UNDER 149.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Washington/Washington State. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to more of a defensive affair this time around in my opinion. These teams played on February 3rd and Washington State won 90-87 in overtime, and the total flew well OVER the posted number of 149 in that one. Suffice to say, I'm not expecting OT again here in the rematch. Also note that Washington has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. Washington has been trading wins and losses over its last five games. It's off an 82-75 loss at home to USC as a 4.5-point favorite, which is significant to note here, as the Huskies have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. With each team doubling down on the defensive end like I suspect, everything does indeed point to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-06-24 | Fresno State v. New Mexico UNDER 152.5 | Top | 58-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* MW TOM on the UNDER Fresno State/New Mexico. This one sets up well from a situational stand point to more of a defensive affair, rather than a wide-open shootout. Fresno State is a huge dog here at the end of the season on the road. It's just 3-8 away from friendly confines. It's lost five straight. That's significant to note though, as the Bulldogs have seen the total dip below the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more SU losses in a row. The Lobos are 12-3 at home. They've lost two straight high-scoring contest though, most recently falling 89-79 at Boise State. With the home side doubling down on the defensive end like I suspect, everything points to this total staying well UNDER the number once the final horn blares. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-06-24 | Bucks v. Warriors OVER 226.5 | Top | 90-125 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONF TOM on the OVER Bucks/Warriors. Despite who is on the court today, I think this will be more of a wide-open offensive affair, rather than a shutdown defensive one. That said, there are Giannis props available here early on, so that would lead you to believe that he'll be in tonight. But as I stated off the top, this is a great "situational" play in my opinion, and one that falls directly into my "wheelhouse." Milwaukee is 16-14 on the road and it's won six straight since the All Star break. It won 113-106 at home over the Clippers without Giannis in the line-up. He may or may not play tonight, but Damian Lillard has looked great of late for the Bucks, and it's just the "next man up" mentality anyways here, as this pick is based on the overall situation. And for the Warriors, they've also looked better since the All Star break. That said, they're off a humbling 140-88 loss at Boston (after winning three straight on the road), and note that GS has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 89 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace from start to finish like I suspect, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-06-24 | Eastern Illinois v. SIU-Edwardsville -3 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
This is my 10* MISSOURI VALLEY TOURNEY GAME OF YEAR on SIU Edwardsville. These teams went 1-1 in the season series, with each side winning and covering at home. The Cougars were 8-point home favorites and they won 67-58, while Eastern Illinois was a two-point dog that won outright at home 84-79 most recently on February 27th. With the setback fresh on their minds, I definitely expect the Cougars to take advantage of this neutral court situation, and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Note as well that SIU Edwardsville is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Lay the points, the play is SIU EDWARDSVILLE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-05-24 | Spurs v. Rockets OVER 228.5 | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Spurs/Rockets. These two teams have been inovled in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open shootout in my opinion here on Tuesday. These two teams need wins. Neither will be in the playoffs though. The Spurs are 13-48, including only 6-27 on the road, while the Rockets are 26-34, including 20-10 at home. The Spurs are playing well right now, winners of two straight, scoring 259 points in the process. They'll now look to avenge a 93-82 loss here in December, and note that San Antonio has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 89 or fewer points in. Houston broke a three-game slide with a 118-109 win over Phoenix. The Rockets have seen the total go UNDER the number in five straight, but that's significant for us to take note of here, as Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five after playing to five more or more straight UNDERS in a row. Look for these two bottom-feeders to play little defense this time around and expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-05-24 | Toledo -1.5 v. Miami-OH | 97-63 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 10* MAC GOY on Toledo. Toledo is 18-11, including 7-5 on the road, while Miami Ohio is 15-14 overall, including 9-4 at home. The Rockets broke a two-game slide with an 85-79 win at Buffalo, but it was their third straight ATS loss. That however is very significant to note, because Toledo is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. It beat Miami Ohio 68-64 back on January 5th, but it did not come close to covering the 11.5-point spread. Tonight's spread is much more manageable here, despite being on the road. Miami Ohio has won three straight, both SU and ATS after a 52-37 victory at EMU last time out. Note though that the RedHawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. EMU is 12-17. Bowling Green is 17-12. CMU is 16-13. I respect what Miami Ohio has done over the last three weeks, but I think this is just a bad matchup for the home side. Look for TOLEDO to comfortably pull away for the win and cover here on Tuesday night. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor UNDER 146 | Top | 85-93 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 TOM on the UNDER Texas/Baylor. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here in my opinion on Monday between Texas and Baylor. The Longhorns are 19-10 overall, but just 4-5 on the road, while Baylor is 21-8 overall, including 14-2 at home. The Longhorns have won two straight after pulling away for the 81-65 win over Oklahoma State, and they've also seen the total go OVER in three in a row. Note though that Oklahoma State has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row. Baylor plays with revenge after a 75-73 loss at Texas back in January, and note that the Bears have seen the total go "under" the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent. The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this contest, combined with the above-listed O/U trends does indeed make the UNDER the correct call here in the rematch between these rivals. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-04-24 | Grizzlies +9.5 v. Nets | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Memphis Grizzlies. Outright win?! I'm not calling for that. But in a contest that I see being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I'm grabbing the points and expecting a battle until the final horn. First off, with nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side here, my contrarian nature definitely makes me love this play even more. Memphis is 20-41 overall, including 13-17 on the road, while Brooklyn is only 24-36 overall, including just 15-17 at home. Memphis is off five straight SU losses after back-to-back home losses to Portland, including a disappointing 107-100 OT loss most recently. The Grizz though are 4-1 ATS in their last five after five or more SU losses in a row. Brooklyn is coming off back-to-back home wins over Atlanta, but with Philadelphia coming to town tomorrow, I say the home side gets caught "looking ahead" here. The Grizz play with the added incentive of revenge as well after a 111-86 home loss to the Nets in late February. Clearly, Memphis is just going through the motions this season, getting ready for next year. But there are going to be moments and "spots" throughout the season where the Grizzlies will win and that putting money on them to cover the spread makes sense. And this really large one against this really mediocre Nets team that's poised for a letdown is the right place to FIRE. As stated off the top, no outright, but closer than expected. The play is MEMPHIS. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-03-24 | Stanford v. Colorado UNDER 155 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC 12 TOM on the UNDER Stanford/Colorado. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with some strong supporting O/U ATS stats, does indeed make this total a little high. The Cardinal are 12-16 overall, including 3-7 on the road, while the Buffs are 19-9 overall, including 15-1 at home. Stanford is off five straight SU/ATS losses, but that's significant to note here as the Cardinal have in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Colorado has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three straight after its 88-78 win over Cal. Note though that the Buffs have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row. For all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on the UNDER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-02-24 | Rockets v. Suns OVER 232.5 | Top | 118-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Rockets/Suns. These teams just played to a lower-scoring UNDER, but I'm anticipating a much more wide-open affair this time around. Houston has lost three straight after its 110-105 loss here two nights ago. Note though that the Rockets have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more SU losses in a row. Phoenix has won two straight, but it's now seen the total go UNDER in five straight, which is significant to note because the Suns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. All signs point to a much faster pace, and ultimatley higher-scoring outcome here in the rematch. The play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-02-24 | Illinois v. Wisconsin UNDER 154.5 | Top | 91-83 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN TOW on the UNDER Illinois/Wisconsin. These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair here in my opinion in this early afternoon Big Ten game. Illinois is coming off a 105-97 home win over Minnesota. The Illini are 21-7. Wisconsin fell 74-70 at Indiana on Tuesday, its fifth straight road loss. But a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion. The Badgers are 13-2 at home and Illinois won't be able to simply "look past" its opponent this afternoon. In what I anticipate will be a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, I'm indeed playing the UNDER in this one. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE BK on UL Lafayette. Throughout the month of March, my writeups will be more succinct due to the fact that I plan on releasing more plays, and don't have as much time as I do normally. Revenge is the motivating driver behind this pick. Southern Miss is 16-14, but just 5-8 on the road. UL Lafayette is 17-13, including 10-3 at home. After four straight losses, the Cajuns come out fired up here to avenge an 82-71 loss to Southern Miss in late February, and note that UL Lafayette is in fact 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Lay the points, the play is UL LAFAYETTE. Good luck, NP | |||||||
03-01-24 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 211.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOM on the OVER Hornets/76ers. Throughout the month of March, my writeups will be more succinct due to the fact that I plan on releasing more plays, and don't have as much time as I do normally. Both teams have been playing to several UNDERS of late, but now this O/U line is TOO low in my opinion. Charlotte has seen the total go UNDER in seven straight after last night's 111-99 loss to the Bucks. Note that Charlotte though has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 still off a SU/ATS road loss in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. Philadelphia will be pushing the pace after B2B losses. It's seen the total go UNDER in five straight now after its most recent 117-99 loss at Boston. That's two straight that's it been held under the century mark. Note though that Philly has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. This number is low, the play is the OVER. Good luck, NP | |||||||
02-29-24 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 216 | 111-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the OVER Bucks/Hornets. Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a shootout here in my opinion here in Charlotte on Thursday night. Milwaukee is 38-21, but just 14-14 on the road. The Bucks have now won three straight, both SU and ATS. That includes a 123-85 win at home over these very Hornets last time out. That result though is significant for two reasons, as Charlotte has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 89 or fewer points in. And also because the Bucks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number before the final horn blares. Good luck, NP | |||||||
02-28-24 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 209.5 | Top | 101-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Grizz/Wolves. These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a wide-open offensive affair here in Minnesota on Wednesday night. Minnesota has now played to three straight UNDERS after last night's 114-105 win over San Antonio here. The Wolves didn't come close to covering the spread, but they could tonight. However take note that Minnesota has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. The beat the Grizzlies 118-103 back on in mid-January and the total flew OVER the number of 214 in that one. Now we have an every lower O/U line. The Grizz have also seen the total go UNDER in three straight after their most revent 111-86 setback at home to the Nets. Note though that Memphis has seen the total go OVER the number in five of its last six after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 89 or fewer points in, and in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. With each team pushing the pace like I suspect, all signs do indeed point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later! Good luck, NP |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $863 |
Tom Macrina | $596 |
Joey Tron | $477 |
Ricky Tran | $440 |
William Burns | $268 |
Joseph D'Amico | $254 |
Ross Benjamin | $140 |
Big Al McMordie | $134 |
Jesse Schule | $116 |
Dan Kaiser | $74 |