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This is a 4% BOOKIEKILLER on the OKC Thunder.

I stated after Game 4 that while it hadn't meant a lot up until that point, moving forward into Game 5 that the "home court" advantage would prove critical, and so far over the last two matchups, that's been the case.

I also theorized on a video last week that to make up for the "small market final," the League would "need" this series to go seven games.

I think both of these cases are still true. The League got what it wanted and needed with a pivotal Game 7, and the home-floor advantage will once again prove to be big for the Thunder here.

The Thunder were a really good road team, but it was going to take a perfect game from everyone involved to knock off a team of Indiana's caliber at home in Game 6, with or without Tyrese Haliburton playing.

He did end up playing and doing well. 

The bottom line, though, is that the Pacers are just not NEARLY as good on the road as they are at home. They did look really good on the road over the first few series, but the Thunder are an even better team at home than as a visitor, finishing 35-6 at Oklahoma City.

I've seen some overreactions from people betting this series, flip-flopping their opinions from one game to the next and not looking at the bigger picture.

Pascal Siakam looked terrible in Game 6, and Indiana managed to win. Haliburton's injury, while better, is still a major concern.

I am expecting a blowout here, frankly. I think this will be one of Oklahoma City's best defensive performances of the Playoffs.

I'm expecting a massive game out of Shai, and wouldn't be surprised if he got close to 40 in this one.

Either way, guys, I say that the home floor advantage is the difference-maker for the THUNDER in Game 7 of the NBA Finals, so lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BOOKIEKILLER on the PACERS on the MONEYLINE.

I had a play on Oklahoma City last time out. I theorized on a video last week that to make up for this being a "small market Final," the League would need this series to go seven games.

I'm still convinced of that, and because of that, I'm going to recommend grabbing the Pacers on the moneyline option.

I've been riding the Thunder a lot in this series and throughout the Playoffs, but I'm expecting the home side to risk life and limb here to pull off the slight upset.

As awesome as SGA has been so far this year, in the Playoffs overall and in this series as well, he's for sure in uncharted territory right now. So far, he's been able to overcome almost every obstacle, but putting away a team on the road in Game 6 of the NBA Finals of the Pacers' calibre is asking A LOT.

They're going to need a PERFECT game out of Shai to earn the win here.

I think the combination of Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton will be too much for the Thunder to handle in Game 6. 

The public likes the Pacers and the points here. Most of the sharps are leaning towards OKC.

I say the value lies in INDIANA extending to a pivotal Game 7!

Good luck, NP

This is a 4% NON-CONFERENCE NBA GOW on the Thunder.

It hasn't meant a lot so far in the Finals, but now I really do think that the "home floor" advantage will prove to be critical for both of these teams.

I theorized on a video last week when I took the Thunder in Game 4, that to make up for this being a "small market Finals," the League would "need" this series to go 7 games to make up for lost revenue.

And I believe this will, in fact, be the case. I think the SGA, Chet Holmgren, and the rest of the Thunder finally step up here in Game 5 and deliver not only a victory but a blowout of epic proportions.

The Pacers are a really good team, but if they don't get a miraculous, super-human game out of either Tyrese Haliburton or Spicy P, then they just don't have enough depth to keep pace with the Thunder. 

Oklahoma City is 35-6 SU at home. The Pacers are still only 20-20 on the road this season.

My short-term strategy here over the next two games is to take the Thunder in Game 5. If they lose, I'm taking them in Indiana in Game 6. If they win, I'm taking the Pacers in Game 6. 

Lay the points, expect a rout. The play is on OKLAHOMA CITY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 2% BEST BET on the Thunder in the FIRST HALF (if you don't have access to a FIRST HALF line, then note that I also like the Thunder for the FULL GAME as well.)

After the Game 1 loss, the Thunder were still -325 favorites to win the Larry O'Brien.

That really tells you something, because the Celtics were never that big of a favorite at any point during their Finals win last year. 

Regardless, I think that SGA and company will not only win the FIRST HALF, but they'll also win Game 3 in blowout fashion as well.

The Thunder were 32-8 SU on the road, and 26-19-2 ATS.

The Pacers were 29-11 SU at home, but only 22-25-1 ATS. 

Oklahoma City has jumped out to early halftime leads over the first two games, and I expect that trend to carry over here on the road.

Indiana's hopes really rely on how well Tyrese Haliburton plays. Which is a bit weird to say after Pascal Siakam just won the ECF's MVP. Haliburton's advanced stats show that he has 13.0 and 15.0 potential assists in the first two games, with those 28 assist chances only manifesting into 12 actual assists.

I say it was Oklahoma City that got complacent in Game 1 at halftime, and that's what led to the Pacers' miraculous comeback.

Chet Holmgren and the rest of the OKC big men stay focused in Game 2, and I say that confidence carries over here in Game 3. 

I don't see anyone slowing down SGA in Game 3, and I believe that OKC has room to play a lot better defense as well in this series.

Either way, my official call is OKLAHOMA CITY to win the FIRST HALF.

Good luck, NP

This is 4% NON-CONF TOW on the OVER Pacers/Thunder.

I had a play on the Thunder in the FIRST HALF of Game 1. Game 1 was competitive, but lower-scoring.

Now with their backs against the wall, I expect the Thunder to come out firing here and to push the pace from start to finish.

Note that OKC has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four as well in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. 

Both teams have been great at making adjustments during the playoffs and in my opinion, Game 2 will see each side really open things up on the offensive end.

Expect a more efficient shooting contest to lead to a higher-scoring final outcome in Game 2.

The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 5% NBA GOM on the THUNDER in the FIRST HALF (but if you don't have access to a FIRST HALF line, I also like OKC for the ENTIRE game as well.)

This is going to be a bad matchup for the Pacers in my estimation. 

The Thunder will be looking to send an early message and I'm expecting SGA and company to come out firing in the FIRST HALF in Game 1. 

Chet Holmgren and the OKC big men will present big problems for Indiana in this series, and with so much attention put onto SGA (and rightfully so of course), the rest of the Thunder will have their opportunity to play a big part in this series as well.

Indiana has yet to face a defense this tough in the Playoffs (the Thunder are No. 1 defensively this year), and after the difficult win over the Knicks, I expect Pascal Siakam and company to come out flat here in Game 1.

I like OKC in the FIRST HALF and for the FULL GAME.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE PLAY on the New York Knicks.

I had a play on the Knicks in the FIRST HALF and for the ENTIRE game in Game 5 and I think they have a legit shot at winning Game 6 outright as well.

The league is praying that that scenario happens as well, because if the Pacers win it'll be a "small market Final." 

Karl Anthony Towns continues to give Indiana difficulties. Tom Thibodeau has been great at making adjustments and I think we're heading to a Game 7.

Indiana has posted several last-second thrilling victories, but I don't see that happening again here in Game 6.

Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers seem to be running out of gas to me.

I'm grabbing the points with the KNICKS, but I won't be shocked if/when NY wins outright as well.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILLER on the New York Knicks in the FIRST HALF (but if you don't have access to a FIRST HALF line, I also like the Knicks for the ENTIRE game as well).

I'm not counting out the Knicks quite yet. Tyrese Haliburton and company have been susceptible on the defensive end, and they're still just 20-20 on the road.

The Knicks are still 27-14 in New York.

Granted, history is not on the Knicks' side here, as the last team to come back from a 3-1 series deficit was 44 years ago. 

If you believe in conspiracy theories, then you should LOVE the Knicks here, as the league will want them to stick around as long as possible, otherwise, it's going to be a small market audience for the Finals.

Now back at home, I like Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson to dictate the tempo.

With the knowledge that they still have two games to wrap up this series, including Game 6 at home, I think the Pacers are going to struggle to find the desperation needed to close out this series here and now.

Conversely, there's no reason not to think that the Knicks won't be laying everything on the line in this one.

Finally, note that New York is 27-10 SU and 22-15 ATS at home when coming off a loss in its previous game, which includes going 5-1 SU/ATS in those instances during the playoffs. 

I like NEW YORK in the FIRST HALF and for the ENTIRE GAME.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PLAYOFF TOTAL PUNISHER on the UNDER Wolves/Thunder.

The oddsmakers aren't giving the Wolves much of a chance here. I'm steering clear of the total and instead targeting the total, and after playing to three straight OVERS, I'm going to recommend a play on the UNDER in this one. 

Let's not forget that OKC is still the best defense in the league.

After losing their opporunity to even the series and now facing a 3-1 hole here on the road, you have to wonder if the Wolves' have much of a fight left in them.

Minnesota was held to 88 and 103 points over its first two games here and I think that Shai and company will hold the Wolves to a similar performance here. 

These two defenses are underrated, allowing just a combined total of 216 PPG.

I say Game 5 sets up to be a defensive one after these teams have played to three straight OVERS.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER Knicks/Pacers.

Over its last five games, Indiana has averaged a total of 227.2 combined points in its last ten games, as Tyrese Haliburton (18.6 points) and Pascal Siakam (20.2 points) continue to push the pace whenever they hit the floor.

Indiana has struggled for the most part on the defensive end this season though, allowing 115.1 points per game.

Jalen Brunson (26 points) and Karl-Antony Towns (24.4 points) were pivotal in the Game 3 victory.

Game 3 did stay below the number, but I think we'll see a much faster pace in Game 4. 

This series has featured both great offensive and defensive play, but everything points to Game 4 being a "shootout" in my opinion.

Look for a highly-efficent overall shooting game to lead to more points.

The play is on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONF TOW on the UNDER Thunder/Wolves.

Game 4 is going to be interesting. To be successful in the Playoffs is all about making adjustments from game-to-game.

It also requires being able to win on the road.

Although the last two games have flown OVER the number, I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle here in Game 4. 

Clearly, it's a massive game. With a victory, the Wolves tie it up before heading back to OKC for Game 4. And with a win, the Thunder take full control of this series.

With each team doubling down defensively like I believe it will, everything points to the UNDER as the correct call in this contest.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP SIDE on the New York Knicks.

The Knicks appeared as if they were going to beat the Celtics whether Jason Tatum was playing or not. New York's defense is underrated and the Pacers aren't going to have an easy time shooting from the perimeter in this series. 

I've been amazed by both teams, who have now clealry taken a big step as far as their progression is concerned. 

Home floor advantage will matter in this series. The Pacers have so far looked great as well in dispatching the Bucks and the Cavaliers in five games each over the first two rounds.

These teams finished with similar records, with the Pacers at 50-32, and the Knicks at 51-31. 

Indiana was just 20-20 on the road though, while New York was 27-14 at home.

I really like both of these teams. And, honestly, it would not be too difficult for me to write a convincing argument for the Paces to win and cover in this contest either.

But for Game 1, I like Jalen Brunson and the Knicks to ride the wave of emotion, and for Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers to stumble out of the gate to open this series.  

Lay the points, the play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP SIDE on the THUNDER in the FIRST HALF (but if you don't have access to FIRST HALF lines, then I also like OKC for the ENTIRE game.) 

I had a play on OKC in the FIRST HALF and for the ENTIRE game in its Game 7 destruction of the Nuggets, and I expect a similar outcome here in Game 1 of the WCF between the Wolves and Thunder on Tuesday night.

These teams played four times in the regular season, and they went 2-2. 

I'm not swinging for the fences in Game 1 here, but as primarily a situational capper, I like the way this one sets up for the Thunder at home.

Fatigue could be an issue for the Thunder if this series once again goes seven games, but I don't think it'll be much of one in Game 1. 

"Rest" will lead to "rust" for the Wolves is what I'm banking on, though, and that's why I'm laying the points in both the FIRST HALF and for the ENTIRE game in this contest.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ROUND 2 WESTERN CONFERENCE GOY on the THUNDER in the FIRST HALF.

With nearly 85% of the money on the Nuggets, this is for a contrarian pick.

I like OKC for the FIRST HALF in this game, and I also like the THUNDER to cover the spread for the entire contest as well. 

Denver is still just 23-23-1 ATS on the road this year, while the Thunder are 31-13-2 ATS at home. 

The Nuggets have won four straight ATS in this series, but now the value has swung in Shai's favor in this Game 7 home contest.

I'm expecting OKC to jump out to a quick start as they try to bury the Nuggets early in the first half.

Unlike in Game 6, though, I believe the Thunder will keep the foot on the gas in the second half and maintain their lead throughout.

This is a play on the THUNDER (ATS) in the FIRST HALF and for the ENTIRE GAME.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Celtics/Knicks.

Can the Knicks step up here and win at home, or will the undermanned Celtics find a way to push this series to a pivotal Game 7?

That's the scenario, and the answer is: I'm not sure! That's why I'm steering clear of the side and instead focusing on the total.

The Knicks have seen the total go UNDER in four of their last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent, though.

Can Boston duplicate the same energy now here on the road without Jason Tatum in the lineup?

It's going to be difficult in my opinion.

All signs point to a very defensive, lower-scoring UNDER in Game 6.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL PUNISHER on the UNDER Knicks/Celtics.

Without star Jason Tatum in the line-up, I'm expecting the Celtics to double down on the defensive end here as they try desperately to send this to a Game 7. 

The bottom line here is that New York is playing better than expected defense in this series.

The Knicks can smell the blood in the water, and they'll be trying to also end this series here and now.

Expect a competitive battle to also be a lower-scoring one once it's all said and done.

This number is high, the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PLAYOFF TOTAL on the UNDER Pacers/Cavaliers.

With their backs against the wall, I think the Cavaliers are going to try and slow this contest down and grind out a victory any way they can.

Whether they actually can cover this spread, or even win this game is yet to be seen, but I ultimately believe that a slower overall tempo and pace will lead to a lower-scoring outcome.

The Pacers have been getting consistent scoring across the board and Cleveland has had difficulty in matching pace, but with the Cavs putting added emphasis onto the defensive end of the court like I believe they'll be forced to do here, I say this O/U line is indeed TOO high.

A great situational play on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE TOW on the OVER Celtics/Knicks.

The first three games have gone UNDER the number, but I'm anticipating Game 4 to finally be a faster-paced affair from start to finish and that this up-tempo style of play will lead to a higher-scoring final outcome once it's all said and done.

Looking back, the Knicks have seen the total go OVER in three of their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent as well.

This is a pivotal game. Boston can regain home floor advantage with a win, while the Knicks can take a stranglehold on the series.

With each team pushing the pace and shooting efficiently, like I believe they will, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Wolves/Warriors.

Game 2 flew well OVER the number in the Wolves' 117-93 victory, after Game 1 stayed well UNDER the number in the Warriors' 99-88 win. 

The Warriors have their backs against the wall with Stephen Curry still sidelined, but Golden State did finish a respectable 24-17 at home.

The Wolves are 24-17 on the road.

Julius Randle looked great for the Wolves in Game 2 by finishing with 24 points, seven boards, and 11 assists. 

Jimmy Butler did his best for the Warriors with 17 points. Butler should do a lot better at home here in Game 3, though.

I think Game 3 will be the fastest-paced game so far in this series.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Thunder/Nuggets.

The first two games of this series have flown well OVER the number, but with the shift in venue I'm anticipating a much more defensive battle finally.

Note that Denver has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent as an underdog.

The conditions in this one all point to the UNDER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Let's bypass the spread and just take Cleveland to win this one straight up. 

Cleveland gets healthier heading back to Indiana, and note that the Cavaliers are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Lay the price on CLEVELAND on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the UNDER Cavs/Pacers.

The first two games of this series have flown well OVER the number, but I'm anticipating a much tighter and ultimately lower-scoring outcome here with the shift in venue for Game's 3 and 4.

Note as well that the Cavs have seen the total go UNDER in five of their last seven still in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

The Pacers have to four straight OVERS dating back to the Milwaukee series, but now finally everything points to a very defensive battle in this crucial Game 3 Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup.

This number is high in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ROUND 2 WESTERN CONFERECEN TOY on the OVER Warriors/Wolves.

I had the Wolves in Game 1. I'm not sure if they can cover this large spread in Game 2 despite Stephen Curry sidelined now for the Warriors, but even without the visitors' star player suiting up for this one, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring final outcome.

Minnesota has seen the total go OVER in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Including in Game 1, these teams have played five games this year. They've been aternating high-scoring affairs, with lower-scoring ones since their matchup back on Decmeber 6th, the Wolves only victory in that span, a 107-90 win for Minnesota.

But off the Warriors' 99-88 lower-scoring upset win here in Game 1, I believe this pattern now continues in a "shootout" here in Game 2.

The Wolves are going to rebound and rally and push the pace from start to finish and I believe this faster tempo will lead to more points in the end.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE YEAR on the Celtics.

The Knicks definitely caught the Celtics "off-guard" in Game 1, but I don't see that happening twice.

Having already accomplished in earning at least a "split" over the first two games here in Boston, I do think that the Knicks finally have a small letdown.

The Knicks battled in their 116-113 road win at Detroit in Game 6 to clinch their opening round series, and then after pulling off the monumental upset in Game 1, I believe the visitors do indeed have a classic letdown.

New York did win its Game 1 matchup against Detroit as well by a score of 123-112, only to then stumble in Game 2 by losing 100-94 as 6.5-point favorites. 

It was just a bad overall game for the Celtics. They also had a poor game in their five-game Opening Round win over the Magic, falling 95-93 at Orlando in Game 3.

Look for BOSTON though to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one and lay the points with confidence.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUNISHER on the Wolves.

Sometimes I completely break games wide-open and my best to look at every angle possible.

In other games, I employ the KISS method, the KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID line of thinking.

And that's essentially the case here, as I don't think we need to overthink this one.

Golden State comes in exhausted after a seven game series win over the Rockets. 

Minnesota looked dominant in its Opening Round win over the Lakers.

Look for the rested home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and to easily pull away for the comfortable cover and win. The play is on MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ROUND 2 EASTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Pacers/Guardians.

Cleveland has seen the total go OVER in four of its five postseason contests, but off a 121-112 home loss to the Pacers in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference Semifinal matchup, I'm expecting a much better effort overall defensively from the home side.

The Pacers shot nearly 59% from behind the arc in Game 1, and after posting back-to-back big victories, including the 119-118 OT win over the Bucks in Game 5 of their Opening Round series, Indiana is poised to stumble here (just reference my FREE PLAY on the Cavaliers in this same game.)

Either way, with Cleveland risking life and limb to secure a victory here in its biggest game of the season, I say this O/U line is much too high.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE GOW on the Denver Nuggets.

The Thunder face a daunting task in a red-hot Nikola Jokic and a confident Denver Nuggets side that took out LA in seven games.

Team chemistry, experience at this level, and Jokic playing consistently from game to game were the key to Denver's success in Round 1, and now Shai and company are going to have their hands full here as well in my opinion.

Denver looked shaky at the beginning of that series, but it definitely got better as it progressed. 

Will "rest" lead to "rust" for the home side, which took care of the Grizzlies in four games? 

The Thunder posted a 131-80 win in Game 1 against Memphis, which was the biggest Game One margin of victory in NBA Playoff history. Suffice it to say, Denver won't be caught off guard here.

The plan for the Nuggets is simple. Steal a game in OKC somehow and take control of the series heading back to Denver. 

I say their best shot is here in Game 1, and while I'm unsure if that competitive effort will result in an outright upset, I do definitely expect the visitors to comfortably cover with the large amount of points that they've been afforded by the oddsmakers here in Game 1.

Grab the points, the play is on DENVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Knicks/Celtics.

This should be an interesting series. I believe Game 1 will have an overall slower pace to it, and that ultimatley the tempo will lead to a lower-scoring combined outcome.

New York is 24-17 on the road, while Boston is 28-13 at home.

The Celtics first game at home against Orlando in the first round had a combined 189 points, and I'm expecting a similar final combined score here as well. 

The Knicks opened with a 123-112 home win over Detroit in their opening six-game series victory. And then they closed it with a 116-113 win at Detroit.

The Celtics have to take control of this series by setting the early defensive tone at home. I say a slower-paced Game 1 leads to an UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER Warriors/Rockets.

The last three games have gone OVER the number, but I'm anticipating a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair in Game 7 finally.

Note that Golden State has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Also note that Houston has seen the total go UNDER in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

I see this being an all-out battle until the final horn and I expect a slower pace to lead to less points.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ATS ROUT on the Cleveland Cavaliers.

I really think that home court advantage will prove to be crucial in this series.

I really respect Indiana, but taking care of Giannis and the undermanned Bucks is one thing, and dealing with a healthy and rested Cavaliers side that is arguably the best in the league is quite another.

I say REST does NOT lead to RUST for the Cavaliers and that they keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, not only winning this game, but doing so in blowout fashion.

Lay the points, the play is on CLEVELAND.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Clippers/Nuggets.

The first four games of this series went UNDER the number, but the last two have flown OVER.

With each team risking life and limb to try and secure the win here, I'm absolutely expecting a very hard-fought defensive affair. This one is going to get "chippy" to say the last in my opinion.

A slower-paced affair is going to lead to less shots and less shots = less points.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on the Houston Rockets.

Golden State blew its opportunity to put this series away, and despite being at home here in Game 6, I think the wrong side is favored.

This series is heading back to Houston for a Game 7 in my estimation. Golden State, we have a problem!

The Warriors had no answer for the Rockets adjustments in Game 5 and I think they're going to have their hands full here as well.

Jimmy Butler's health is an issue for GS. How much gas does Stephen Curry have left in him?!

Houston will now look to post a big upset here on the road and while I do indeed feel that's a very real possibility, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with the ROCKETS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the LA Clippers.

I'm not counting out LA yet.

Denver is still just 21-22 ATS on the road this year, while LA is 29-14 ATS at home.

Off the back-to-back losses, I like Kawhi Leonard and company to step up here and respond.

Nikola Jokic has been unbelievable in this series, but I believe LA's depth at home proves to be the difference-maker in Game 6.

Lay the points, the play is on LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Wolves.

Minnesota has a chance to exorcise some Playoff demons with a victory tonight over the Lakers.

Back in 2003 Kevin Garnett and the Wolves had a 2-1 series lead before eventually losing. In 2004 they lost once again to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals in six games after Sam Cassell got hurt and KG was forced to play point guard.

Last year it was Luca Doncic that ended the Wolves run after they beat both the Suns and the Nuggets. 

And so now up 3-1, Anthony Edwards can finally get his team over the proverbial playoff hump tonight with a victory.

Edwards has matured now and isn't intimitated by LeBron James or Luka anymore. Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle round out a deep and difficult team to guard.

And with Rudy Gobert in the middle, the Lakers don't really have an answer for him either. 

Minnesota is the better team in this fight and it's proven that by going up 3-1. The Wolves can't risk this series continuing obviously and in a game that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is on MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Clippers on the moneyline.

This has been a back-and-forth series, but after losing Game 4 at home by a score of 101-99, I like the Clippers to respond here in Game 5 on the road as the slight favorite.

Let's bypass the spread, though, and just play LA to win this one straight up on the moneyline.

Note that LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent in which it was a favorite. 

But as I said, we're going to just play LA to win this game outright.

Look for the Clippers' depth and superior defensive play to prove to be too much for Nikola Jokic in Game 5.

The play is LA on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Rockets/Warriors.

Golden State will look to take a commanding 3-1 lead in this series. Houston will look to push the pace and even it up.

Either way, after the first three games all went UNDER the number, I'm finally expecting a much higher-scoring offensive battle in Game 4.

The Warriors have seen the total go OVER in four of their last six after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Rockets have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 now in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will be, everything points to the OVER as the correct call as far as the total is concerned.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Knicks/Pistons.

New York is up 2-1 after its tight 118-116 win in Game 3 here. After the Pistons fell 123-112 in Game 1, they responded with a great defensive effort in Game 2's 100-94 victory.

Note that the Pistons, though, have seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent as well.

Look for Game 4 to be like Game 2, a lower-scoring defensive battle.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Rockets/Warriors.

This series is tied 1-1 heading baack to Golden State, but after the first two games stayed well UNDER the number, I'm finally expecting more of an offensive affair here in Game 3.

Clearly, this is a really low number. These were two of the most efficient shooting clubs in the regular-season, but so far its been dominated by scrappy-defensive play.

But now with the shift in venue, everything points to a much more wide-open pace and tempo. Also note that the Warriors have seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in.

Look for a faster-paced affair to help in pushing this total well OVER the number before the final buzzer sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE ROUND ONE TOY on the OVER Lakers/Wolves.

The first two games of this series have both gone UNDER the number, but I'm finally anticipating a much more wide-open offensive affair with the shift in venue.

Note that the Wolves have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in.

These defenses have been fantastic to this point. These are two really good offenses as well though. I think we'll see an entirely different tempo from the start in this one, as all signs point to this total flying well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Nuggets/Clippers.

The first two games have gone UNDER the number, including in the Nuggets 112-110 OT victory in Game 1, but I expect a much more wide-open pace and overall faster tempo here in LA.

Note that the Nuggets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. as well.

Look for a faster pace to lead to more shots and for more shots to lead to more points. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Orlando Magic.

Jason Tatum is doubtful for the Celtics, who can likely win this game without him anyways.

Whether he plays or not, I like Orlando to bounce back here and to, at the very least, keep it competitive enough to cover with the large spread that its been afforded in this one.

The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last eight in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent.

Grab the points, the play is on ORLANDO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the OVER Wolves/Lakers.

LA has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 points or fewer in.

I'm expecting the humbled Lakers to push the pace, to set the early tone and to shoot a lot better overall.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Pistons/Knicks.

I had the Knicks in their 123-112 Game 1 victory. That total flew OVER the number, but I'm expecting a much more defensive affair here in Game 2.

Note that Detroit has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

I'm expecting a more methodical pace to lead to a lower-scoring outcome.

The play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* PUNISHER on the Houston Rockets on the moneyline.

This won't be a cakewalk for either side, but I thjink that Houston's depth and the home floor advantage will prove critical in this series and in Game 1.

The Rockets were consistently undervalued by the bookmakers and the general betting public all season.

Much like the Lakers last night in their loss to Minnesota, clearly the Warriors' offense revolved around only two main players (Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler.)

Butler looked great in the Play-In win over Memphis, but he could now struggle offensively here in Houston.

Houston has too many options and is fresh and ready to go.

I smell a blowout here at home for the ROCKETS. The play is HOUSTON on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the LA Lakers on the moneyline.

Let's bypass the spread option and instead grab LA on the moneyline here to win straight up.

These teams went 2-2 in the regular season, but I'm expecting LA to find a way to win in Game 1.

Each team won both of its home games and lost both of its road games and I expect that to once again matter here in Game 1 for the Lakers.

Minnesota won eight of its last ten games, but I think a predictable letdown is going to happen.

Look for the LAKERS skill and home-court advantage prove to be the difference-maker in Game 1.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the New York Knicks.

The Knicks are poised to smash the Pistons in Game 1 in my opinion, so I'm laying the points.

New York was just 1-3 against Detroit in the regular season, but now that the "real thing" is here, I look for New York to domiante.

Cade Cunningham is an awesome player, but I like Karl-Anthony Towns in his first playoff game for the Knicks.

New York finished fifth in the league in offensive officiency, and I don't expect Detroit to be able to keep pace down the stretch.

The play is on NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the LA Clippers.

Recent form is the driving factor behind this pick. The Clippers enter the Playoffs having won eight in a row, including a crucial 124-119 OT win at Golden State to avoid the Play In Tournament.

Denver won its final three games, but in a contest that I see being very evenly matched, and one that's decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

For sure Nikola Jokic is the best player on the floor, but with Kawhi Leonard now finally once again firing on all cylinders, this CLIPPERS team is just too deep and talented in my opinion.

Grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the UNDER Mavericks/Grizzlies.

It's No. 10 Dallas, vs. No. 8 Memphis. The winner moves on and the loser heads home.

These teams met four times in the regular season, and Memphis is 3-1. 

Dallas enters off a 120-106 upset win in Sacramento. I had the Kings in that one unfortunately. The Mavericks played great defense, and now fatigued as well, I'm expecting the visiting side to put on another tought defensive performance.

Memphis fell 121-116 to Golden State. I unfortunately had a play on the UNDER in that one. I stated in the analysis, that the team that played better defensively would win that contest.

And that's the case here as well between Dallas and Memphis on Friday night in my opinion.

I'm expecting a much less overall efficient game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PLAY-IN GAME OF THE YEAR on the Sacramento Kings.

Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson?

It's been an up-and-down year for the Mavericks this year, but without their Heart And Soul in the line-up anymore, I'm predicting a quick exit here.

Sacramento is 3-0 in the season series this year. It has a bunch of really good players, including Damontis Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk and Zach LaVine.

The Kings are the fourth-best free-throw shooting team and they're great at rebounding as well.

The last time these teams played, Sacramento won 122-98 on March 3rd, and I believe an even bigger and badder beatdown is about to happen on Wednesday.

Lay the points, the play is SACRAMENTO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PLAY-IN TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Grizzlies/Warriors.

If you're betting on this game, the cast of characters, both on the floor and behind the bench, as well as these teams' strengths and weaknesses are well-known even to the most casual NBA fan.

Memphis plays with revenge following a 134-125 home loss to the Warriors back on Arpil 1st, and note that the Grizzlies have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. 

Golden State blew an opportunity to avoid the Play In Tournament following a 124-119 OT home loss to the Clippers. 

But now that the Playoffs are finally here, I'm expecting each side to come out and try early on to establish their dominance defensively in this one. The team that steps up and plays the best defense is going to win this game.

This number is a big high in my opinion, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WEST-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Clippers/Kings.

LA is coming off six straight wins and it's seen the total go OVER in three straight following a 134-117 victory over Houston last time out.

Note though that the Clippers have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Kings had their three-game win streak come to an end last time out in a 124-116 loss to Denver and they play with revenge here following a 111-110 OT loss at LA in March.

LA has the Warriors to close out the regular season, and I think they also could potentially get caught looking ahead here.

Either way, I say this total is a bit TOO high, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER Wolves/Grizzlies.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I believe the conditions are now correct for much more of a "shootout" here in Memphis on Thursday night.

Minnesota just had its five-game win streak snapped last time out in a 110-103 loss at Milwaukee. This concludes the road portion of its schedule this year. The Wolves have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but looking back Minnesota has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Memphis has won three straight road games, but with a game at Denver tomorrow night, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side.

With each team pushing the pace like I believe it will, everything points to this total flying well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Orlando Magic.

Just a great "spot" bet, combined with the "revenge" angle here.

Boston is off a hard-fought 119-117 OT win at New York just last night. I feel a bit fortunate because I had the OVER in that one.

Regardless, the Celtics now come to town dead tired and unable to help themselves looking ahead to their final two home games of the regular season, both against Charlotte.

The Magic play with revenge following a 121-94 loss at Boston in mid-January.

Orlando has won seven of its last nine games, and it has only a two-game lead over Atlanta for home-court advantage in the Play-In Tournament. 

Orlando beat Atlanta here 119-112, but with tough upcoming road games to close out the year at the Pacers and then the Hawks, tonight's contest takes on added importance for the home side.

Boston will be resting several key starters here, so lay the points and expect the MAGIC to not only win but also do so in blowout fashion, avenging the earlier loss at the same time.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ATLANTIC DIVISION TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Celtics/Knicks.

We have two very defensive-minded division opponent going head-to-head here, but I'm expecting a much more wide-open pace than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe for a couple of key reasons, and therefore I'm going to be playing the OVER.

Boston is 7-3 ATS in its last ten and 58-20 SU overall. With a game at Orlando tomorrow night though, this game in New York takes on added importance for the defending champs.

New York plays with revenge here though following a 118-105 loss at Boston in February, and note that the Knicks have seen the total go OVER in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Knicks are 4-1 SU their last five and 50-28 SU overall and they're off back-to-back victories. New York has seen the total go UNDER in five straight after its most recent 112-98 win over Phoenix, and note that the Knicks have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in four of their last five after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Each team is relatively healthy and I'm expecting a playoff-like atmosphere and overall intensity with this one.

It all adds up to a higher-scoring OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Flordia/Houston.

I had Houston and the "over" in the same game in the Final Four. Because I played early, I got a win on the over. Some would have lost, others pushed. Either way, I did go on to cash my 3-game Final 4 Report.

We have a contrast of styles here, with Florida's up-tempo offense going up against Houston's smothering defense.

The old saying that "defense wins championships" couldn't be more apt in this particular matchup in my opinion.

Duke was shutdown over the final few minutes of that game and I think LJ Cryer and company will now carry over that defensive confidence here agains the Gators.

Both teams have playmakers, but fatigue is now also an issue for each side.

Florida went UNDER the number for the first time in the playoffs this year, and everything points to another lower-scoring defensive battle for all the reasons listed above in the National Championship Game as well.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOTAL PUNISHER on the OVER Kings/Pistons.

It's a big game for each side. Detroit is 43-35, while Sacramento is 38-40.

The Pistons are off a 109-103 home loss to Memphis and have seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that looking back Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Sacramento is playing the finale of a six-game road trip here. After losing the first three, the Kings have bounced back with back-to-back wins, most recently upsetting Cleveland 120-113. 

With each side pushing the pace like I believe it will be, everything points to this total flying well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* ATS WINNER on the Lakers.

SGA is only hitting 41.7 percent from the field and 23.1 percent from 3-point range over his last two games, following OKC's loss to Houston. I had the Rockets in that one.

The Lakers play with the added incentive of revenge as well following a 101-93 loo to the Thunder at home back on November 29th.

LA is off a win and plays four of its last five on the road. Expect a big concerted effort from the visiting side here and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to a comfortable cover.

Grab the points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Houston/Duke.

I just got through writing how incredible Houston's defense is, and now I'm on the OVER as well in the same contest (note, this pick is part of a three-game report that includes plays on Auburn, Houston and the OVER in Houston/Duke.) 

The Cougars strength, beyond the obvious, is their ability to play any "style" of game (as evidenced in the high-scoring 81-76 win over Gonzaga), and that's going to be key here in keeping pace with the Blue Devils at times.

These teams played last March 29th and Duke won 54-51. Expect a much faster-pace this time around though.

This can still be a lower-scoring game and go OVER this lower number, and that's exactly what I expect.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Houston.

The strengths/weaknesses are well known for each side. With nearly 65% of the early public money on the favorite, this one naturally appeals to my contrarian nature.

The Cougars still seems like the more complete team to me, and their defense looked amazing in the 69-50 win over Tennessee. 

Duke also looked great in its victory over Alabama. I had the Blue Devils in that one.

But the Tide have a terrible defense. Houston is just so elite on that end of the floor, that I believe the Cougars have a legit shot at winning this one outright.

In another game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on Auburn.

These teams have similar records and play similar styles. With a spread like this, clealry the oddsmakers agree.

Florida looked a bit shaky against Texas Tech last time out, and was lucky to escape with the victory as a 6.5-point favorite.

Auburn's defense looked great in the 70-64 win over Michigan State, as the Tigers were never in trouble.

In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is AUBURN.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Rockets.

I think the Thunder's 11-game win streak is in jeopardy here. After this, they return home for two straight games against the Lakers, and I believe that not only does the visiting side have a letdown, but it also gets caught looking ahead.

It's a trap for the visitors, and an opportunity for the revenge-minded home side.

Houston lost 137-128 at Oklahoma City a month ago.

The Rockets have won four of their last five and are off a big 143-105 win over Utah.

While the outright is possible, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Wolves/Nets.

Minnesota is playing well to end the regular-season, off three straight wins though, including a 140-139 OT victory at Denver, I think that focus and fatigue will be an issue here for the visitors, and I'm expecting a much less efficient contest.

The Nets are off back-to-back rare road wins at Washington and Dallas and they've seen the total go OVER in three straight. Note though that looking back Brooklyn has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the UNDER Pistons/Thunder.

Detroit's three-game win streak came to an end in a 123-104 loss at Minnesota last time out, and I believe the Pistons will have trouble generating offense here in Oklahoma City as well.

OKC won 113-107 in Detroit two weeks ago, and everything points to a similar final combined score here as well in my opinion.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Butler/Boise State.

Butler got by Utah 86-84 as a 3.5-point underdog in the Opening round of the CBC. 

Both teams came in well-rested with three weeks of rest in between.

But now I think we'll see a much slower pace here.

Boise State went on to annihilate George Washington 89-59. 

These teams played in November of 2023, and Butler won 70-56. 

I foresee a similar final combined score here now in the second round of the CBC.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Chattanooga.

The Mocs roared back from a 13-point halftime deficit to beat Bradley to advance. Chattanooga won the Southern Conference regular season, but it got eliminated by Furman in the Tournament. 

Keep your eyes on Honor Huff, who is averaging 15.3 PPG. 

The Loyola Chicago Ramblers finished third in the A-10. Miles Rubin had 18 points and nine rebounds in their ten-point win to advance.

Getting points here seems like a gift. The Mocs have the offense to easily win this game outright and really test this Ramblers defense.

While I believe the outright win is a very real possibility, my official call is to grab as many points as you can with CHATTANOOGA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GAME OF THE MONTH on the Memphis Grizzlies.

Golden State lost its first two games of its current six-game road trip, but it's since bounced back with back-to-back wins at New Orleans and San Antonio. But with big upcoming games at the Lakers, and then at home vs. Denver and Houston, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot for the visitors, but also a potential look-ahead position. And when you add those two situational factors together, you get "TRAP GAME." 

Memphis doesn't have the luxury to look past anyone after three straight losses to Oklahoma City, the Lakers and then 117-103 to Boston last night.

The Grizz play with the added incentive of "revenge" here as well following a 121-113 loss at Golden State in early January.

Memphis hits the road for thre straight after this as well. I believe the Grizz come to play tonight and while I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with MEMPHIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers.

LA is off a big 134-127 win at Memphis and I believe it'll carry that momentum and confidence over here.

The Rockets have won three in a row, including a big 148-109 victory at the Suns just last night.

Houston is fatigued and it returns home for games vs. the Jazz and Thunder, so I believe it'll get caught looking ahead here as well.

The Lakers play with revenge following a 119-115 loss to Houston in their most recent matchup.

And with nearly 75% of the early public money on Houston, this one also greatly appeals to my contrarian nature.

Lay the points, the play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CROWN TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Nebraska/ASU.

Nebraska lost 83-68 to Iowa on March 9th in its last game, while Arizona State lost 71-66 to K-State back on March 11th.

The Cornhuskers have interestingly seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last when playing with 7 or more days rest following a SU/ATS home loss vs. a conference opponent. The were one of three teams to miss the Big Ten Tournament, so it's redemption time here. Overall they averaged 75.4 PPG, while allowing 72.9.

ASU averaged 73.9 and conceded 76.5. 

But with each team pushing the pace like I believe it will, everything points to this total flying OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the UNDER Pistons/Wolves.

Both sides are desperate for wins. I believe that'll translate into a very defensive affair today.

The Wolves are off an impressive 124-109 home win over Phoenix and I believe they carry over that defensive momentum here.

The Pistons are off three straight victories, including a huge 133-122 win over Cleveland at home last time out. Note though that Detroit has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after three or more SU victories in a row.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ELITE EIGHT TOY on the OVER MSU/Auburn.

These teams are battling for the top spot in the South Region and in my opinion, everything points to a "shootout," rather than a slower defensive battle. 

MSU advanced with a 73-70 win over Ole Miss, while Auburn got past Michigan 78-75.

While these teams have been playing to some lower-scoring battles in this Tournament, tonight's total is now just a bit too low in my opinion.

Expect a faster paced game to lead to more points. This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ELITE EIGHT GOY on Duke.

I think the No. 1 seed will win and cover here in the Elite Eight.

Cooper Flag and company will be hard to slow down, and despite coming off an NCAA-record 25 three-pointers made in its Sweet 16 victory, I think this is a bad matchup for Alabama finally.

The Tide struggle defensively, and this elite Blue Devils side is going to be able to grind and expose this weakness. 

Duke has a balanced offense and a superior defense and I say that Alabama's Cinderalla run finally comes to an end vs. the No. 1 seed.

Lay the points, the play is on the BLUE DEVILS.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Dallas Mavericks.

I like looking for great "spots" to bet throughout the regular season. Here's a great one in my opinion!

Dallas has been playing a lot better of late after winning three of its last four. That includes a 101-92 victory at Orlando. 

It returns home for two winnable games after this vs. the Nets and Hawks, so this is without question a crucial stretch for the under-manned Mavericks.

The Bulls won't be in the playoffs, but they've also been playing better of late. Chicago is off four straight victories, including beating the Lakers twice. They've won and covered as an underdog in all four games.

But with a night off before a game at Oklahoma City, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot here facing this non-conference opponent, but also a potential look-ahead position.

And when you add those two factors together, you get "TRAP GAME." 

While I think the MAVERICKS have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* NORTHWEST TOM on the UNDER Jazz/Nuggets.

I'm expecting a very defensive affair here. 

The Nuggets are a massive favorite here. They've been trading wins/losses over their last four games. Off a 127-117 win over Milwaukee here, I'm expecting the home side to double down on the defensive end here.

Denver has seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that looking back the Nuggets have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Utah is off four straight losses, including a 121-110 loss at home to Houston. Expect fatigue to be a major issue for Utah.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

My 10* SWEET 16 TOY is on the OVER Ole Miss/Michigan State.

The best finish ever for Ole Miss in the NCAA Tournament was back in 2001 when it bowed out in the Sweet 16. 

The Rebels though are rolling after wins over UNC and Iowa State. The Rebels played to a defensive affair in the win over UNC, but they showed off their offensive prowess in the victory over Iowa State. I believe Ole Miss will keep that offensive momentum rolling here in the Round of 16.

Tom Izzo and the Spartans most recently were in the Sweet 16 two years ago, but it's been six years since MSU has advanced past this point. 

Ole Miss already proved that it can score against tough defenses, and with the underdog setting the pace in my opinion, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Lakers/Bulls.

Love how this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle rather than a high-scoring shootout.

LA is off the much-needed 120-119 win at Indiana just last night. I had the Lakers on the moneyline in that one, so congrats to anyone that joined me.

LA has seen the total go OVER in three straight. It lost at home to the Bulls 146-115 just last week, so clearly the Lakers will be out to atone for that dismal defensive performance. 

The Lakers will be looking to control the tempo of this one. 

Chicago is 32-40 after winning four of its last five, but after three straight road victories as a big underdog, a letdown finally appears imminent to me in their first game back at home. 

The Bulls couldn't miss a shot in LA last week, but everything points to a much less overall efficient offensive game tonight in Chicago from each side in my opinion.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is 10* SWEET 16 GOY on Maryland.

The No. 1 seed Florida Gators survived a scare against the two-time defending champs in the Round of 32, but they survived and have moved on to now face No. 4 seed Maryland on Thursday. 

Maryland also held on for dear life in its 72-71 win over Colorado State.

The Terps are in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2016, while Florida is back for the first time since 2017.

These teams are evenly matched in my opinion. They are according to the KenPom rankings as well.

Florida owns the second-best offense and 11th-best defense, while Maryland had the 23rd-ranked offense, and sixth-ranked defense.

The Gators have looked sloppy so far, averaging 12 turnovers over their first two games.

Both teams are loaded with talent and this one really does have the feel of being an "any given Sunday" type of contest.

And so, in a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points.

The play is MARYLAND.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILLER on the Lakers on the moneyline.

After three straight losses, I like the Lakers to rebound here and to find a way to win this game. Note that LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU losses in a row.

The Lakers have a game at the Bulls tomorrow, looking to avenge the 146-115 home loss last week. But they can't look past the dangerous Pacers. They beat Indiana 124-117 at home in early February.

The Pacers have won five straight after a 119-103 win over the Wolves last time out. Indiana has a road game in the Nation's capital tomorrow as well.

LA has been playing sloppy of late, but I'm predicting that ends tonight. And with nearly 75% of the public money on the home side, this one also definitely appeals to my contrarian side.

The play is LA on the MONEYLINE option.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Spurs/Pistons.

Both teams have been playing well of late, and that's why everyone is quick to back another high-scoring affair here, but I believe the conditions are now correct for a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair here in Detroit. 

The Spurs are 4-1 in their last five. They've won three straight, scoring 120, 128 and 123 points in the process. Last time out they won 123-89 at Toronto. With upcoming games at Cleveland, and then at home vs. Boston, Golden State and Orlando, I feel this is a classic letdown spot now for the over-achieving visiting side.

The Pistons are 3-2 in their last five and they're off a 136-130 win here over New Orleans. Detroit though has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

With an important divisional contest against the Cavaliers here up next, the home side will be reserving some gas and planning ahead as well.

I see this game unfolding at a more methodical pace, so I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* NIT QUARTERFINAL TOY on the UNDER Chattanooga/Bradley.

Chattanooga is 26-9, while Bradley is 28-8. 

The Braves have won four of their last five, including a 75-57 victory over George Mason last time out. Duke Deen is Bradley's leading scorer with 13.5 PPG. The Braves though looked very impressive on the defensive end and I'm expecting them to carry that momentum over here (note that over their last five games, the Braves have averaged 66.8 PPG.) 

Chattanooga is off the 87-72 win over Dayton, getting 26 points from Honor Huff. Huff averages 14.3 PPG to lead the way for the Mocs. 

The Mocs, clearly, like to push the pace, but the Braves defense is pretty good. 

This is a toss up as far as the side is concerned, but I say the O/U line is now way too high. 

With Bradley looking to control the pace of this one from the outset, I believe this total will stay well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Sacramento Kings.

The Celtics have cruised to five straight wins, but off a 129-116 victory at Portland just last night, and with a game at Phoenix up next, I say this one sets up as a classic "letdown" and "look-ahead" trap game for the visitors.

The Kings beat the Celtics 114-97 in Boston in mid-January. Sacramento is 35-35 and still fighting and after back-to-back losses, I like the Kings to bounce back here. It's a difficult stretch for sure for Sacramento, with Oklahoma City coming to town on Tuesday, followed by games vs. Portland and Orlando. 

So that definitely puts added importance onto this contest for the home side.

While I do feel an outright upset is possible considering all of the situational factors working in favor of the KINGS, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* CBI GOY on Army.

I'm not calling for an outright victory here or anything, but I do think this one will be a "nail-biter." Because of that, I'm grabbing the poitns.

This CBI quarterfinal game is being played at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach Florida. 

The Black Knights advanced by beating Elon by a score of 83-78 yesterday. Normally, playing the second game of a back-to-back isn't the best thing for a team, but I'll argue that it is in this case. Army hadn't played since March 6th previous to yesterday's game, so the Black Knights are rested.

Florida Gulf Coast finished third in the A-Sun, losing 71-65 to Queens in the Conference Tournament. But, that was all the way back on March 3rd as well. I'll also argue, that "rest" is going to lead to "rust" here for FGCU, and that yesterday's win for Army will now only help it here in the second game of the back-to-back. 

I'm grabbing the points, the play is ARMY.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* NCAA SECOND ROUND TOURNEY TOY on the OVER Oregon/Arizona.

These teams are familiar with each other, despite now playing in different conferences.

Oregon beat Indiana 72-59 in the Big Ten Conference Tournament, but then fell 74-64 to Michigan State. The Ducks then opened up the NCAA Tournament with a dominant 81-52 victory over Liberty as seven-point favs. All three of those games went UNDER the number, but note that looking back Oregon has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Arizona won its first two conference games over KU and Texas Tech, but then the Wildcats fell 72-64 to Houston in the Big 12 Tournament. Arizona then opened up the NCAA Tourney with an impressive 93-65 win over Akron.

Both teams' offenses took center stage in the first round, and I believe that'll again be the case here in the second.

This O/U line is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is my 10* NIT SECOND ROUND GOY on Arkansas State.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. 

Both teams dominated in their opening-round matchup.

Arkansas State beat Saint Louis 103-78, while North Texas beat Furman 75-64. The Red Wolves average 79.9 PPG, while allowing 70.4. UNT averages 68.3, while allowing 59.8.

It's a classic clash of styles here, and while "defense wins championships" typically, I don't think that's going to be the case in this particular matchup though. 

North Texas is great at home, but Arkansas State is loaded with talent and has the ability to win this one outright in my opinion.

Grab the points, the play is ARKANSAS STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER 76ers/Hawks.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter and ultimatley lower-scoring outcome here in my opinion.

Philadelphia is just 23-47 after three straight losses. The 76ers have seen the total go OVER in five straight, but note that looking back Philadelphia has seen the total go UNDER in four of its last five after playing to five or more straight OVERs in a row.

Atlanta is 34-36 after back-to-back wins. The Hawks have seen the total go OVER in three straight following a 124-115 upset win over the Warriors last time out, but note that Atlanta has seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

The overall situation that each team finds itself in, combined with the above-listed numbers/trends all combine and point to this total being TOO high. 

So the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the UNDER Bulls/Lakers.

I'm expecting a very defensive battle here between these non-conference opponents on Saturday.

The Bulls have won three of their last four. With a game at the Nuggets, the road ahead doesn't get any easier for the visitors.

The Lakers are coming off a 118-89 loss at home to Milwaukee. LA is dealing with significant injury issues right now.

I'm expecting a very methodical pace here, and as such, the correct call as far as the total is concerned in my opinion is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NCAA SECOND ROUND GOY on Houston.

A Sweet 16 berth is on the line on Saturday night, and in this matchup of No. 1 vs. No. 8, I believe the favorite will not only win this game, but do it in blowout fashion. So I'm laying the points.

Both teams cruised to an easy victory in the first round, but Houston's ability to stretch defenses will finally run Gonzaga's five-game win streak in my opinion. 

The Zags can run with the best of them, but this Cougars' defense is on an entirely different level. 

Houston also holds a +6.5 rebounding edge per game.

This is a bad matchup for the Zags. Look for HOUSTON to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the win and cover.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Memphis Grizzlies. 

The Grizzlies are 43-27 after back-to-back losses to open up this road trip. That included a 115-99 loss at Portland as a 4.5-point favorite last time out. Note though that the Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last ten following a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in.

The Grizz play with the revenge factor as well following a 128-114 loss here in mid-February. 

The Clippers are now 39-30 after four straight victories. That includes a 132-119 upset home wni over Cleveland last time out.

But with the league-leading Thunder coming to town next, would anyone fault the home side getting caught "looking ahead" here?! 

It's a "trap" game for the Clippers and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a very competitive battle until the final moments.

Grab the points, the play is MEMPHIS.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST ROUND NCAA TOURNEY GOY on the OVER Liberty/Oregon.

This is the final game in the Round of 64 and it features a 12/5 matchup. 

Liberty is a confident team that I believe will be pushing the pace from start to finish. The Flames dominated the Conference USA and then capped it off with a Tournament title win as well.

Kaden Metheny is averaging 13.5 PPG this year and has been even better of late, combining for 45 points over his last two games. 

Oregon is a big favorite, but the Ducks will have their hands full with a Liberty team that ranks second in the country in effective field goal percentage (58.4%.) 

I see this being a competitive, fast-paced affair, and one that flies well OVER the number before the final horn sounds.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILLER on Norfolk State.

Florida is a huge favorite here. I'm not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I am definitely expecting a much more competitive battle than what this spread is suggesting.

Florida is the No. 1 seed, and Norfolks is the No. 16.

Florida enters having won six straight, while the Spartans earned an automatic bid after winning the MEAC Tournament title. 

Todd Golden's team won't be looking past the Spartans, but their depth and veteran line-up is going to be able to keep it much closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

With nearly 70% of the public money on the favorite, I love the points in this one. While the majority goes one way, I'm going the other.

The play is NORFOLK STATE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOW on the UNDER Bulls/Kings.

Chicago is 1-3 on its current trip after a 127-121 loss at Phoenix just last night. I had the OVER in that one, but now I'm expecting Chicago to come in fatigued.

Sacramento is off consecutive upset home victories and has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that looking back the Kings have seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

This number is a little high in my opinion, so I'm on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST ROUND NCAA TOURNEY GOY on Nebraska Omaha.

We have a big number here, and it's a little TOO big for the Red Storm to cover in my opinion.

I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a comfortable cover for Nebraska Omaha in my opinion.

All eyes are on Rick Pitino's club in this matchup, but I think the Summit regular-season and Conference Tournament Champ Nebraska Omaha has what it takes to hang around and make this one interesting. 

What the Mavericks lack in size, they make up for in outside shooting, depth and veteran leadership. Note that when they hit 39 percent or more from ranger, they're 12-1.

The Red Storm are poor from the three-point line and the charity stripe as well.

St. John's wins with its defense, but the Mavericks aren't prone to tuning the ball over a lot. 

I think St. John's has what it takes to make it out of the first round, but not to come close in covering this massive spread.

Grab the points, the play is NEBRASKA OMAHA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on Utah Valley.

Utah Valley finished 25-8, while San Francisco was 24-9.

The Dons lost 85-76 to Gonzaga in the second round of the WCC Tournament, while Utah Valley lost to Grand Canyon by a score of 89-82 in the WAC Tourney final. 

San Fran averages 75.9 PPG, while conceding 68.9. The Wolverines aveage 76.2 PPG, while allowing only 68. 

San Fran is dealing with an injury issue to its second-leading scorer. Utah Valley is coming in with a chip on its shoulder and I believe it has a legit shot at winning this one outright.

Grab the points though, the play is UTAH VALLEY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOM on the OVER Bulls/Suns.

Both teams have been playing several lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to a much faster-paced and higher-scoring "shootout" here finally in Phoenix for a couple of different reasons in my opinion.

Chicago enters only 29-39, but the Bulls are unquestionably playing their best basketball of the year right now, having won four of their last five. Over those five games, they've scored 114, 121, 116, 114 and 111 respectively. 

I'm expecting Chicago to keep this offensive momentum rolling here vs. this suspect Suns defense. The Suns have seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that looking back Phoenix has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

Off a 129-89 win over the Raptors, I like Phoenix to carry over that offensive momentum here as well.

With each team pushing the pace like I'm expecting it to, everything does indeed point to this total flying well OVER the posted number before the final buzzer sounds.

Phoenix is 32-37 and it's just 2-3 in its last five. 

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST FOUR SUPER TOTAL on the OVER MSM/American.

These teams enter their First Four matchup off several lower-scoring games, but with so much on the line here, I'm expecting each to push the pace and for this total to eclipse the posted number well before the final horn sounds.

Both teams finished 22-12. Mount St. Mary's rolled through the MAAC Tournament with three straight wins, beatin Iona 63-49 in the finale. All three games went UNDER the number. Looking back though the Mount has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

American won all three games in its Patriot League Tournament as well, ending with a 74-52 victory over Navy. The Eagles scored 71, 72 and 74 points respectively over those three contests, and I see this pattern continuing here.

These teams are efficient on offense and good on defense. Look for these rested teams though to come out and push the pace and watch the total easily blast well OVER this number before the game is through.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST FOUR TOY on the OVER UNC/SDSU.

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my "wheelhouse," so to speak.

UNC finished 22-13 in the ACC this year, falling to Duke in the Championship game by a score of 74-71. 

All three of its Conference tournament games went UNDER the number, but note that looking back UNC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

SDSU lost 62-52 to Boise State in the Conference Tournament, after finishing 21-9 overall. It's final three regular season games flew well OVER the number thogh, and I believe with the extra time off to prepare for this game, that the Aztecs' offense will return to the norm. 

North Carolina will be looking to push the pace here is the bottom line as it looks to take the Aztecs out of their comfort zone.

This number is low in my opinion, so the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NIT FIRST ROUND GOY on Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks finished 22-7 and second in the Conference-USA, while Georgia Tech was 17-16 and finished eighth in the ACC. 

Jacksonville State lost to Liberty in the Conference USA Championship game despite a monster game from Jaron Pierre Jr, who had 19 points in the loss. 

Only four teams from the ACC got selected to the NCAA Tournament, and the Yellow Jackets weren't one. A recent stand-out was Duncan Powell, who had 24 points in the conference tournament loss to Duke. 

There was one point in time where an eighth place finish in the ACC would guarantee you spot in the NCAA Tournament, but that time is long past. The ACC is not what it used to be.

The Yellow Jackets had the slightly more difficult schedule, but Jacksonville State has the veteran leadership to pull of a potential upset here in the first round.

This one has the feel of whichever team has its hands on the ball last will come out on top.

Grab the points, the play is JACKSONVILLE STATE.  

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Nuggets.

One night after beating the Lakers 131-126, the Nuggets were upset at home 126-123 by the Wizards.

Perhaps they got caught looking ahead to this difficult four-game road trip that sees them at the Lakers again, followed by stops at Portland and Houston.

They beat the Warriors 119-115 back in early December, but now Golden State comes in on fire following the Jimmy Butler trade, having won seven in a row. They barely held on for the 97-94 win over the Knicks as seven-point favs last time out though, and now I believe they could potentially lose this one straight up.

As good as the Warriors have been, this is a difficult matchup for them in trying to slow down the Nuggets' inside-outside offense. 

I say DENVER on the moneyline is worth a "sprinkle" as well, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* BOOKIEKILLER on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Milwaukee beat OKC in the Play In Tournament at the start of the season, and the Thunder got revenge at home on February 3rd, winning 125-96. 

Now Milwaukee comes into Sunday's game playing well, looking to avenge that setback, and to take advantage of this overall "spot." 

The Thunder are 2-0 on their current road trip, beating two really hot teams in the Celtics and Pistons. 

With two nights off before two really easy "cream puffs" at hoem vs. Philly and Charlotte, I believe this sets up as a "look-ahead" position for the visitors.

The Bucks have won two in a row at home and will be eager to close this three-game homestand with another victory before a difficult five-game Western road trip.

Just a great "situational" play here. While I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call is to grab as many points as you can.

The play is MILWAUKEE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AAC TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL on the UNDER.

These teams have been involved in higher-scoring games to reach the finale, but I'm expecting a bit more of a defensive affair, as fatigue finally sets in for each team.

UAB beat ECU 94-77 and then North Texas 66-56 yesterday to advance. The first game flew well OVER the number, and the second stayed well UNDER. 

UAB lost both regular season games to the Tigers, and each game went OVER, so the last thing the Blazers will want to do is turn this into a "shootout" again. 

Memphis beat Wichita State 83-80 and then also held on for dear life in a 78-77 victory over Tulane yesterday. The Tigers failed to cover the spread in both, and each game flew OVER the posted number.

But now here in the Championship game, I say that a third game in three days will lead to each side playing at a more "methodical" pace, and because of that, I'm definitely on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* ULTIMATE TOTAL on the UNDER Wizards/Nuggets.

Denver has been trading wins/losses over its last five games and off a 131-126 victory here over the Lakers just last night, it will try to break this pattern this evening.

Fatigue will be an issue in the second game of the back-to-back for the home side here and I expect that to affect its offense.

The Wizards snapped a two-game slide with a 129-125 win over Detrit last time out, but in its two previous losses, it scored just 207 combined points.

Look for Denver to control the pace of this one and for all of these other factors to also help contribute to this being a low-scoring defensive UNDER, rather than a "run-and-gun shootout."

Good luck, NP